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Sample records for predicting future duration

  1. Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

  2. Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

  3. Predicting Future Citation Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    2003-01-01

    Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

  4. Predicting Future Citation Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    2003-01-01

    Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

  5. Shortened sleep duration does not predict obesity in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Calamaro, Christina J; Park, Sunhee; Mason, Thornton B A; Marcus, Carole L; Weaver, Terri E; Pack, Allan; Ratcliffe, Sarah J

    2010-12-01

    Obesity continues to be a major public health issue. In adolescents, there are limited studies on the relationship between obesity and sleep duration. We found hypothesized that an average sleep duration of <6 h in adolescents was associated with obesity. Data were from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD Health); a survey of 90,000 youths, aged 12-18 years; surveyed in several waves. The sample population for our study was 13,568. Weighted multiple logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between obesity at Wave II and sleep duration, having adjusted for skipping breakfast ≥ 2/week; race, gender, parental income, TV ≥ 2 h per day, depression, and obesity at Wave I. At Wave I, the mean age was 15.96 ± 0.11 years; mean sleep hours were 7.91 ± 0.04. At Waves I and II, respectively, 10.6 and 11.2% of adolescents were obese. Adjusted analyses suggest that the effect of shortened sleep duration in Wave I was not significantly predictive of obesity in Wave II (P < 0.218). Longitudinally, depression and TV ≥ 2 h per day at Wave I was associated with a higher risk of obesity at Wave II in adjusted analyses. Depressed adolescents were almost twice as likely to be obese (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.25-2.72); adolescents who watched TV ≥ 2 h per day were 37% more likely to be obese (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.09-1.72). Environmental factors including TV ≥ 2 h per day and depression were significantly associated with obesity; shortened sleep duration was not. Future longitudinal studies in adolescents are needed to determine whether timing of television watching directly influences sleep patterns and, ultimately, obesity.

  6. Space mechanisms needs for future NASA long duration space missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fusaro, Robert L.

    1991-01-01

    Future NASA long duration missions will require high performance, reliable, long lived mechanical moving systems. In order to develop these systems, high technology components, such as bearings, gears, seals, lubricants, etc., will need to be utilized. There has been concern in the NASA community that the current technology level in these mechanical component/tribology areas may not be adequate to meet the goals of long duration NASA mission such as Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). To resolve this concern, NASA-Lewis sent a questionnaire to government and industry workers (who have been involved in space mechanism research, design, and implementation) to ask their opinion if the current space mechanisms technology (mechanical components/tribology) is adequate to meet future NASA Mission needs and goals. In addition, a working group consisting of members from each NASA Center, DoD, and DOE was established to study the technology status. The results of the survey and conclusions of the working group are summarized.

  7. Predicting Future Improvements in Footracing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Joseph

    1980-01-01

    Three models to predict future world records for footraces are reviewed. The records for the mile run are presented with time and year given in linear, hyperbolic, and experiential relationships. (MP)

  8. Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

  9. Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

  10. Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2016-12-01

    Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

  11. Automatic measurement of vowel duration via structured prediction.

    PubMed

    Adi, Yossi; Keshet, Joseph; Cibelli, Emily; Gustafson, Erin; Clopper, Cynthia; Goldrick, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    A key barrier to making phonetic studies scalable and replicable is the need to rely on subjective, manual annotation. To help meet this challenge, a machine learning algorithm was developed for automatic measurement of a widely used phonetic measure: vowel duration. Manually-annotated data were used to train a model that takes as input an arbitrary length segment of the acoustic signal containing a single vowel that is preceded and followed by consonants and outputs the duration of the vowel. The model is based on the structured prediction framework. The input signal and a hypothesized set of a vowel's onset and offset are mapped to an abstract vector space by a set of acoustic feature functions. The learning algorithm is trained in this space to minimize the difference in expectations between predicted and manually-measured vowel durations. The trained model can then automatically estimate vowel durations without phonetic or orthographic transcription. Results comparing the model to three sets of manually annotated data suggest it outperformed the current gold standard for duration measurement, an hidden Markov model-based forced aligner (which requires orthographic or phonetic transcription as an input).

  12. Automatic measurement of vowel duration via structured prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adi, Yossi; Keshet, Joseph; Cibelli, Emily; Gustafson, Erin; Clopper, Cynthia; Goldrick, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    A key barrier to making phonetic studies scalable and replicable is the need to rely on subjective, manual annotation. To help meet this challenge, a machine learning algorithm was developed for automatic measurement of a widely used phonetic measure: vowel duration. Manually-annotated data were used to train a model that takes as input an arbitrary length segment of the acoustic signal containing a single vowel that is preceded and followed by consonants and outputs the duration of the vowel. The model is based on the structured prediction framework. The input signal and a hypothesized set of a vowel's onset and offset are mapped to an abstract vector space by a set of acoustic feature functions. The learning algorithm is trained in this space to minimize the difference in expectations between predicted and manually-measured vowel durations. The trained model can then automatically estimate vowel durations without phonetic or orthographic transcription. Results comparing the model to three sets of manually annotated data suggest it out-performed the current gold standard for duration measurement, an HMM-based forced aligner (which requires orthographic or phonetic transcription as an input).

  13. Predicting the duration of emotional experience: two experience sampling studies.

    PubMed

    Verduyn, Philippe; Delvaux, Ellen; Van Coillie, Hermina; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Van Mechelen, Iven

    2009-02-01

    The authors present 2 studies to explain the variability in the duration of emotional experience. Participants were asked to report the duration of their fear, anger, joy, gratitude, and sadness episodes on a daily basis. Information was further collected with regard to potential predictor variables at 3 levels: trait predictors, episode predictors, and moment predictors. Discrete-time survival analyses revealed that, for all 5 emotions under study, the higher the importance of the emotion-eliciting situation and the higher the intensity of the emotion at onset, the longer the emotional experience lasts. Moreover, a reappearance, either physically or merely mentally, of the eliciting stimulus during the emotional episode extended the duration of the emotional experience as well. These findings display interesting links with predictions within N. H. Frijda's theory of emotion, with the phenomenon of reinstatement (as studied within the domain of learning psychology), and with the literature on rumination.

  14. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    PubMed

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy.

  15. Ongoing behavior predicts perceptual report of interval duration

    PubMed Central

    Gouvêa, Thiago S.; Monteiro, Tiago; Soares, Sofia; Atallah, Bassam V.; Paton, Joseph J.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to estimate the passage of time is essential for adaptive behavior in complex environments. Yet, it is not known how the brain encodes time over the durations necessary to explain animal behavior. Under temporally structured reinforcement schedules, animals tend to develop temporally structured behavior, and interval timing has been suggested to be accomplished by learning sequences of behavioral states. If this is true, trial to trial fluctuations in behavioral sequences should be predictive of fluctuations in time estimation. We trained rodents in an duration categorization task while continuously monitoring their behavior with a high speed camera. Animals developed highly reproducible behavioral sequences during the interval being timed. Moreover, those sequences were often predictive of perceptual report from early in the trial, providing support to the idea that animals may use learned behavioral patterns to estimate the duration of time intervals. To better resolve the issue, we propose that continuous and simultaneous behavioral and neural monitoring will enable identification of neural activity related to time perception that is not explained by ongoing behavior. PMID:24672473

  16. Sleep duration predicts cardiometabolic risk in obese adolescents.

    PubMed

    Iglayreger, Heidi B; Peterson, Mark D; Liu, Dongmei; Parker, Christine A; Woolford, Susan J; Sallinen Gafka, Bethany J; Hassan, Fauziya; Gordon, Paul M

    2014-05-01

    To examine the independent contributions of objectively measured sleep duration and fragmentation on cardiometabolic risk accumulation in free-living obese adolescents. Characteristics of metabolic syndrome (waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, fasting high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose) were measured in obese adolescents and standardized residuals (z-scores) were summed (inverse high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) to create a continuous cardiometabolic risk score (cMetScore), adjusted for age, sex, and race. Sleep and physical activity were objectively measured in habitual, free-living conditions for 7 days (SenseWear Pro3, BodyMedia, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; n = 37; 54% female, ages 11-17 years). Associations between sleep duration and cMetScore were assessed via multiple linear regression. Body mass index, total sleep time, and sleep session length were each correlated with cMetScore (P < .05 all). Total sleep time was inversely and independently associated with cMetScore (r = -0.535, P = .001) and was the best independent predictor of metabolic risk. Sleep duration inversely predicts cardiometabolic risk in obese adolescents, even when we controlled for various measures of physical activity, anthropometry, and adiposity. Further research should investigate the biological mechanism of this relationship and the potential treatment effect of sleep intervention in decreasing cardiometabolic risk in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2017-02-01

    This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

  18. Short sleep duration and obesity: mechanisms and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Zimberg, Ioná Zalcman; Dâmaso, Ana; Del Re, Mariana; Carneiro, Aline Millani; de Sá Souza, Helton; de Lira, Fábio Santos; Tufik, Sergio; de Mello, Marco Túlio

    2012-08-01

    A reduction of sleep time has become common over the last century, and growing evidence from both epidemiological and laboratory-based studies suggests sleep curtailment is a new risk factor for the development of obesity. On this basis, the present review examines the role of sleep curtailment in the metabolic and endocrine alterations, including decreased glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, increased evening concentrations of cortisol, increased levels of ghrelin, decreased levels of leptin and increased hunger and appetite. It will be discussed how sleep restriction may lead to increase in food intake and result in greater fatigue, which may favour decreased energy expenditure. Altogether, evidences point to a possible role of decreased sleep duration in the current epidemic of obesity and therefore present literature highlights the importance of getting enough good sleep for metabolic health. Many aspects still need to be clarified and intervention studies also need to be conducted.

  19. BESS and its future prospect for polar long duration flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, A.; Abe, K.; Anraku, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Fujikawa, M.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Imori, M.; Izumi, K.; Maeno, T.; Makida, Y.; Matsui, N.; Matsumoto, H.; Matsunaga, H.; McDonald, F. B.; Mitchell, J.; Mitsui, T.; Moiseev, A.; Motoki, M.; Nishimura, J.; Nozaki, M.; Orito, S.; Ormes, J. F.; Righter, D.; Saeki, T.; Sanuki, T.; Sasaki, M.; Seo, E. S.; Shikaze, Y.; Sonoda, T.; Streitmatter, R.; Suzuki, J.; Tanaka, K.; Tanizaki, K.; Ueda, I.; Wang, J. Z.; Yajima, N.; Yamagami, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Yamaoka, H.; Yamato, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yoshimura, K.; BESS Collaboration

    The Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting Spectrometer, BESS, aims to study elementary particle/antiparticle phenomena in the early history of the Universe. The instrument has a unique feature of a thin superconducting solenoid magnet enabling a large geometrical acceptance with a horizontally cylindrical configuration. Seven balloon flights have been successfully carried out since 1993. More than 10 3 comic-ray antiproton have been unambiguously detected, and the energy spectrum has been measured with the characteristic peak at 2 GeV. The search for cosmic-ray antihelium brought the upper-limit of the antihelium/helium ratio down to < 10 -6. To extend the highly sensitive measurements, we are planning polar long duration flights in Antarctica focusing on the very low energy antiproton spectrum towards the solar-minimum in the next decade.

  20. Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

    PubMed

    Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2015-11-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected.

  1. Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected. PMID:26244924

  2. Variability in Cumulative Habitual Sleep Duration Predicts Waking Functional Connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Khalsa, Sakh; Mayhew, Stephen D.; Przezdzik, Izabela; Wilson, Rebecca; Hale, Joanne; Goldstone, Aimee; Bagary, Manny; Bagshaw, Andrew P.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: We examined whether interindividual differences in habitual sleep patterns, quantified as the cumulative habitual total sleep time (cTST) over a 2-w period, were reflected in waking measurements of intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity (FC) between major nodes of three intrinsically connected networks (ICNs): default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), and central executive network (CEN). Methods: Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study using seed-based FC analysis combined with 14-d wrist actigraphy, sleep diaries, and subjective questionnaires (N = 33 healthy adults, mean age 34.3, standard deviation ± 11.6 y). Data were statistically analyzed using multiple linear regression. Fourteen consecutive days of wrist actigraphy in participant's home environment and fMRI scanning on day 14 at the Birmingham University Imaging Centre. Seed-based FC analysis on ICNs from resting-state fMRI data and multiple linear regression analysis performed for each ICN seed and target. cTST was used to predict FC (controlling for age). Results: cTST was specific predictor of intranetwork FC when the mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) region of the DMN was used as a seed for FC, with a positive correlation between FC and cTST observed. No significant relationship between FC and cTST was seen for any pair of nodes not including the MPFC. Internetwork FC between the DMN (MPFC) and SN (right anterior insula) was also predicted by cTST, with a negative correlation observed between FC and cTST. Conclusions: This study improves understanding of the relationship between intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity of intrinsically connected networks (ICNs) in relation to habitual sleep quality and duration. The cumulative amount of sleep that participants achieved over a 14-d period was significantly predictive of intranetwork and inter-network functional connectivity of ICNs, an observation that may underlie the link

  3. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis ...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-13-1-0408 5c...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT It is now well established that there is a preclinical period of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development that is

  4. Radiation exposure predictions for short-duration stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Nealy, John E.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

    1992-01-01

    The human radiation environment for several short-duration stay manned Mars missions is predicted using the Mission Radiation Calculation program, which was developed at NASA Langley Research Center. This program provides dose estimates for Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large and ordinary solar proton flare events for various amounts of effective spacecraft shielding and a given time history of the spacecraft's heliocentric position. The results of this study show that most of the missions can survive the most recent large flares if a 25 g/sq cm storm shelter is assumed. The dose predictions show that missions during solar minima are not necessarily the minimum dose cases, due to increased GCR contribution during this time period. The direct transfer mission studied has slightly lower doses than the outbound Venus swingby mission, with the greatest dose differences for the assumed worst case scenario. The GCR dose for a mission can be reduced by having the crew spend some fraction of its day nominally in the storm shelter.

  5. Radiation exposure predictions for short-duration stay Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Striepe, S A; Nealy, J E; Simonsen, L C

    1992-01-01

    The human radiation environment for several short-duration stay manned Mars missions is predicted using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, which was developed at NASA Langley Research Center. This program provides dose estimates for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large and ordinary solar proton flare events for various amounts of effective spacecraft shielding (both operational and storm shelter thicknesses) and a given time history of the spacecraft's heliocentric position. The results of this study show that most of the missions can survive the most recent large flares (if they were to occur at the missions' perihelion) if a 25 g/cm2 storm shelter is assumed. The dose predictions show that missions during solar minima (when solar flare activity is the lowest) are not necessarily the minimum dose cases, due to increased GCR contribution during this time period. The direct transfer mission studied has slightly lower doses than the outbound Venus swingby mission [on the order of 10-20 centi-Sieverts (cSv) lower], with the greatest dose differences for the assumed worst case scenario (when the large flares occur at perihelion). The GCR dose for a mission can be reduced by having the crew spend some fraction of its day nominally in the storm shelter (other than during flare events).

  6. Predicting the Future of ESL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashworth, Mary

    Influences in the classroom of English as a second language (ESL) are briefly reviewed as a preface to a discussion of the past, present, and future of ESL instruction in Canada. Ten influences on ESL's past are examined in terms of their effects on ESL teachers: international, national, social, political, economic, commercial, media,…

  7. Variability in Cumulative Habitual Sleep Duration Predicts Waking Functional Connectivity.

    PubMed

    Khalsa, Sakh; Mayhew, Stephen D; Przezdzik, Izabela; Wilson, Rebecca; Hale, Joanne; Goldstone, Aimee; Bagary, Manny; Bagshaw, Andrew P

    2016-01-01

    We examined whether interindividual differences in habitual sleep patterns, quantified as the cumulative habitual total sleep time (cTST) over a 2-w period, were reflected in waking measurements of intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity (FC) between major nodes of three intrinsically connected networks (ICNs): default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), and central executive network (CEN). Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study using seed-based FC analysis combined with 14-d wrist actigraphy, sleep diaries, and subjective questionnaires (N = 33 healthy adults, mean age 34.3, standard deviation ± 11.6 y). Data were statistically analyzed using multiple linear regression. Fourteen consecutive days of wrist actigraphy in participant's home environment and fMRI scanning on day 14 at the Birmingham University Imaging Centre. Seed-based FC analysis on ICNs from resting-state fMRI data and multiple linear regression analysis performed for each ICN seed and target. cTST was used to predict FC (controlling for age). cTST was specific predictor of intranetwork FC when the mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) region of the DMN was used as a seed for FC, with a positive correlation between FC and cTST observed. No significant relationship between FC and cTST was seen for any pair of nodes not including the MPFC. Internetwork FC between the DMN (MPFC) and SN (right anterior insula) was also predicted by cTST, with a negative correlation observed between FC and cTST. This study improves understanding of the relationship between intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity of intrinsically connected networks (ICNs) in relation to habitual sleep quality and duration. The cumulative amount of sleep that participants achieved over a 14-d period was significantly predictive of intranetwork and inter-network functional connectivity of ICNs, an observation that may underlie the link between sleep status and cognitive performance.

  8. Prediction of future asset prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  9. Initial symptom burden predicts duration of symptoms after concussion★

    PubMed Central

    Meehan, William P.; O’Brien, Michael J.; Geminiani, Ellen; Mannix, Rebekah

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine which variables predict prolonged (>28 days) duration of symptoms after a concussion. Design We conducted a prospective cohort study of adult (>18yo) patients cared for in a specialty concussion clinic. Methods Symptoms were assessed using the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale (PCSS) developed at the 3rd International Conference on Concussion in Sports. Possible predictors including age, sex, loss of consciousness, amnesia, history of prior concussion, prior treatment for headaches, history of migraines, and family history of concussions, were measured by self-report. We recorded a PCSS score at each clinical visit and defined time to symptom resolution as the number of days between the date of injury and date of last symptoms. Results Of 64 adult patients included in the study, 53.3% were male; 20.3% reported experiencing a loss of consciousness at the time of injury while 23.4% reported amnesia. Patients ranged in age from 18 to 27 years (mean 21 ± 2 years). Most concussions (92.2%) occurred during sports. The mean initial PCSS score for those suffering symptoms for longer than 28 days was significantly higher than those who symptoms resolved within 28 days (42.5 vs. 19.2, p < 0.01). Of all potential predictor variables, only the initial PCSS score was independently associated with the odds of symptoms lasting longer than 28 days (aOR 1.037; 95% CI 1.011, 1.063). Conclusions Among adult patients with concussions, those with a higher symptom burden after injury have an increased odds of suffering from prolonged symptoms. Other potential predictor variables are not associated with the risk of prolonged recovery. PMID:26718812

  10. Initial symptom burden predicts duration of symptoms after concussion.

    PubMed

    Meehan, William P; O'Brien, Michael J; Geminiani, Ellen; Mannix, Rebekah

    2016-09-01

    To determine which variables predict prolonged (>28 days) duration of symptoms after a concussion. We conducted a prospective cohort study of adult (>18yo) patients cared for in a specialty concussion clinic. Symptoms were assessed using the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale (PCSS) developed at the 3rd International Conference on Concussion in Sports. Possible predictors including age, sex, loss of consciousness, amnesia, history of prior concussion, prior treatment for headaches, history of migraines, and family history of concussions, were measured by self-report. We recorded a PCSS score at each clinical visit and defined time to symptom resolution as the number of days between the date of injury and date of last symptoms. Of 64 adult patients included in the study, 53.3% were male; 20.3% reported experiencing a loss of consciousness at the time of injury while 23.4% reported amnesia. Patients ranged in age from 18 to 27 years (mean 21±2 years). Most concussions (92.2%) occurred during sports. The mean initial PCSS score for those suffering symptoms for longer than 28 days was significantly higher than those who symptoms resolved within 28 days (42.5 vs. 19.2, p<0.01). Of all potential predictor variables, only the initial PCSS score was independently associated with the odds of symptoms lasting longer than 28 days (aOR 1.037; 95% CI 1.011, 1.063). Among adult patients with concussions, those with a higher symptom burden after injury have an increased odds of suffering from prolonged symptoms. Other potential predictor variables are not associated with the risk of prolonged recovery. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  12. The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

    2009-07-01

    Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting

  13. Historical statistics and future changes in long-duration blocking highs in key regions of Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Ye, Peilong; Pu, Zhaoxia; Feng, Juan; Ma, Baisheng; Wang, Jinyan

    2017-03-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data and 13 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study focuses on historical statistics and future change in blocking over key regions (Urals, Baikal, and Okhotsk regions) in Eurasia. The statistical characteristic using NNR data shows that short-duration and long-duration blocking highs are 75 and 25% of the total, respectively. It is also shown that frequency of blocking highs presents a decreased trend in Eurasia during 1956-2006, except blocking highs in summer in Baikal region, long-duration blocking highs in summer, and short-duration blocking highs in winter in Okhotsk region. Compared with NNR, the frequency of blocking highs is underestimated in Eurasia by CMIP5 models, except these with long-duration in the Baikal and Okhotsk regions. Most of the CMIP5 models can reproduce the historical trend of blocking highs over Eurasia during 1956-2005. In addition, projections show that the future change of long-duration blocking highs in Eurasia is not always consistent with that in the whole Northern Hemisphere. The results of the multiple models ensemble (MME) suggest that long-duration blocking highs in the Urals will significantly increase by 0.3 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the wintertime. In the summertime, the frequency fluctuates with little change. In Okhotsk, long-duration blocking highs will increase by 0.23 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) in the wintertime (summertime) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, long-duration blocking high frequency will remain the same, and the decreasing trend in the wintertime and the increasing trend (0.32 times/10 years) in the summertime will even accelerate over the trends in the twentieth century.

  14. Memory, Imagination, and Predicting the Future

    PubMed Central

    Mullally, Sinéad L.

    2014-01-01

    On the face of it, memory, imagination, and prediction seem to be distinct cognitive functions. However, metacognitive, cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging evidence is emerging that they are not, suggesting intimate links in their underlying processes. Here, we explore these empirical findings and the evolving theoretical frameworks that seek to explain how a common neural system supports our recollection of times past, imagination, and our attempts to predict the future. PMID:23846418

  15. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kevin D. Deane, MD/PhD...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...preclinical period of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development that is characterized by abnormalities of the immune system prior to the onset of the

  16. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-07-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  17. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-02-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  18. Stress and Sleep Duration Predict Headache Severity in Chronic Headache Sufferers

    PubMed Central

    Houle, Timothy T.; Butschek, Ross A.; Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Rains, Jeanetta C.; Penzien, Donald B.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the time-series relationships between stress, sleep duration, and headache pain among patients with chronic headaches. Sleep and stress have long been recognized as potential triggers of episodic headache (< 15 headache days/month), though prospective evidence is inconsistent and absent in patients diagnosed with chronic headaches (≥ 15 days/month). We reanalyzed data from a 28-day observational study of chronic migraine (n = 33) and chronic tension-type headache (n = 22) sufferers. Patients completed the Daily Stress Inventory and recorded headache and sleep variables using a daily sleep/headache diary. Stress ratings, duration of previous nights' sleep, and headache severity were modeled using a series of linear mixed models with random effects to account for individual differences in observed associations. Models were displayed using contour plots. Two consecutive days of either high stress or low sleep were strongly predictive of headache, whereas two days of low stress or adequate sleep were protective. When patterns of stress or sleep were divergent across days, headache risk was increased only when the earlier day was characterized by high stress or poor sleep. As predicted, headache activity in the combined model was highest when high stress and low sleep occurred concurrently during the prior 2 days denoting an additive effect. Future research is needed to expand on current findings among chronic headache patients and to develop individualized models that account for multiple simultaneous influences of headache trigger factors. PMID:23073072

  19. Tracking the Mind during Reading: The Influence of Past, Present, and Future Words on Fixation Durations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kliegl, Reinhold; Nuthmann, Antje; Engbert, Ralf

    2006-01-01

    Reading requires the orchestration of visual, attentional, language-related, and oculomotor processing constraints. This study replicates previous effects of frequency, predictability, and length of fixated words on fixation durations in natural reading and demonstrates new effects of these variables related to 144 sentences. Such evidence for…

  20. Tracking the Mind during Reading: The Influence of Past, Present, and Future Words on Fixation Durations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kliegl, Reinhold; Nuthmann, Antje; Engbert, Ralf

    2006-01-01

    Reading requires the orchestration of visual, attentional, language-related, and oculomotor processing constraints. This study replicates previous effects of frequency, predictability, and length of fixated words on fixation durations in natural reading and demonstrates new effects of these variables related to 144 sentences. Such evidence for…

  1. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    SciTech Connect

    Striepe, S.A.; Simonsen, L.C.; Nealy, J.E.

    1994-04-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21(sup st) century. Both minimum energy and fast transfer missions are evaluated and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the Sun. All of the fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30% less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in an approximate 10% reduction in the total mission dose. 18 refs.

  2. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

    1994-01-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21(sup st) century. Both minimum energy and fast transfer missions are evaluated and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the Sun. All of the fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30% less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in an approximate 10% reduction in the total mission dose.

  3. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

    1992-01-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21st century. Both long-fast and minimum energy transfer missions are evaluated, and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the sun. All of the long-fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30 percent less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in significantly lower total doses.

  4. Mortality Associated with Short Sleep Duration: The Evidence, The Possible Mechanisms, and The Future

    PubMed Central

    Grandner, Michael A.; Hale, Lauren; Moore, Melisa; Patel, Nirav P.

    2009-01-01

    This review of the scientific literature examines the widely observed relationship between sleep duration and mortality. As early as 1964, data have shown that 7-hour sleepers experience the lowest risks for all-cause mortality, whereas those at the shortest and longest sleep durations have significantly higher mortality risks. Numerous follow-up studies from around the world (e.g., Japan, Israel, Sweden, Finland, the United Kingdom) show similar relationships. We discuss possible mechanisms, including cardiovascular disease, obesity, physiologic stress, immunity, and socioeconomic status. We put forth a social-ecological framework to explore five possible pathways for the relationship between sleep duration and mortality, and we conclude with a four-point agenda for future research. PMID:19932976

  5. CME prediction: present and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amerstorfer, Tanja

    2017-04-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has attracted a lot of attention from scientists all over the world. Several organizations monitor the solar activity and the solar wind embracing many of the diverse phenomena related to space weather. Despite the community wide efforts to enhance prediction models, accurately forecasting a CME's arrival time at Earth is not yet possible and the number of false alarms is still too high. With the currently limited observational possibilities of coronagraphs at L1 it may not be possible to improve the prediction error significantly. With the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) the research field of the interplanetary evolution of CMEs got fresh impetus and CMEs propagating outside the field of view of coronagraphs could have been studied in detail. Exploiting STEREO data, several methods were developed to investigate and predict the propagation of CMEs. The logical next step in the field of CME prediction is to use and refine those methods and to envisage future space weather missions where these tools can be deployed. This talk gives an overview on existing forecasting methods and models and risks a foresight into prospective models and ideas, which may enhance CME prediction.

  6. Premenstrual depression predicts future major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Graze, K K; Nee, J; Endicott, J

    1990-02-01

    To assess the power of premenstrual changes as a risk factor for future major depressive disorder (MDD), we conducted a follow-up study of 36 women who had volunteered for menstrual cycle studies. Scores on the depressive subscale of the Premenstrual Assessment Form (PAF) at initial evaluation were found to be significantly correlated (r = 0.35) with the occurrence of MDD during the follow-up period. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that the PAF scores had predictive value above and beyond 2 known risk factors for MDD, family history of depression and prior personal history of depression. The Premenstrual Change Index, a score derived from prospective daily self-ratings of severity of dysphoric symptoms, was also correlated with interval MDD, but did not enhance the predictive power of the PAF score. We conclude that the assessment of premenstrual depression has validity in identifying women at risk for future MDD, even when a retrospective instrument, PAF, is utilized for such assessment.

  7. Positive symptoms and duration of illness predict functional laterality and attention modulation in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Løberg, E-M; Jørgensen, H A; Green, M F; Rund, B R; Lund, A; Diseth, A; Oie, M; Hugdahl, K

    2006-04-01

    Dichotic listening (DL) performance in schizophrenia, reflecting hemispheric asymmetry and the functional integrity of the left temporal lobe, can vary with clinical characteristics. Previous studies have not taken the co-linearity of clinical variables into account. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the roles of positive symptoms and duration of illness in DL through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), thus allowing for complex relationships between the variables. We pooled patients from four previous DL studies to create a heterogeneous group of 129 schizophrenic patients, all tested with a consonant-vowel syllables DL procedure that included attentional instructions. A model where positive symptoms predicted a laterality component and duration of illness predicted an attention component in DL was confirmed. Positive symptoms predicted reduced functional laterality, suggesting involvement of left temporal lobe language processing. Duration of illness predicted impaired attention modulation, possibly reflecting the involvement of frontotemporal networks.

  8. Timing Rhythms: Perceived Duration Increases with a Predictable Temporal Structure of Short Interval Fillers

    PubMed Central

    Horr, Ninja K.; Di Luca, Massimiliano

    2015-01-01

    Variations in the temporal structure of an interval can lead to remarkable differences in perceived duration. For example, it has previously been shown that isochronous intervals, that is, intervals filled with temporally regular stimuli, are perceived to last longer than intervals left empty or filled with randomly timed stimuli. Characterizing the extent of such distortions is crucial to understanding how duration perception works. One account to explain effects of temporal structure is a non-linear accumulator-counter mechanism reset at the beginning of every subinterval. An alternative explanation based on entrainment to regular stimulation posits that the neural response to each filler stimulus in an isochronous sequence is amplified and a higher neural response may lead to an overestimation of duration. If entrainment is the key that generates response amplification and the distortions in perceived duration, then any form of predictability in the temporal structure of interval fillers should lead to the perception of an interval that lasts longer than a randomly filled one. The present experiments confirm that intervals filled with fully predictable rhythmically grouped stimuli lead to longer perceived duration than anisochronous intervals. No general over- or underestimation is registered for rhythmically grouped compared to isochronous intervals. However, we find that the number of stimuli in each group composing the rhythm also influences perceived duration. Implications of these findings for a non-linear clock model as well as a neural response magnitude account of perceived duration are discussed. PMID:26474047

  9. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  10. A computer model to predict the outcome and duration of ureteral or renal calculous passage.

    PubMed

    Parekattil, Sijo J; White, Mark D; Moran, Michael E; Kogan, Barry A

    2004-04-01

    We developed a computer model to predict the outcome and the duration until passage of ureteral/renal calculi. A retrospective, randomized study was performed of the outcome in 301 patients presenting to the emergency room for renal colic. Presenting characteristics of those diagnosed with a single calculus by computerized tomography were recorded for analysis. Predictors of stone passage and passage duration were identified and then used to create a logistic regression model. The algorithm was trained on 141 randomly selected patients and then tested on a separate 160 patients. Model accuracy was compared to predictions from 10 experienced urologists and 9 urology residents in 77 randomly selected patients. The model was tested further in 30 randomly selected patients at a private hospital to assess its general applicability. The model prediction accuracy in 160 patients was 86.3% for passage and 87.3% for duration (less or greater than 2 weeks). In the comparison group the model, the 10 experienced urologists and the 9 urology residents had an overall prediction accuracy of 88.3%, 70.5% (p = 0.006) and 72% (p = 0.007) for passage, and 87.1%, 71.6% (p = 0.007) and 81% (p = 0.075) for duration, respectively. Prediction accuracy was 93.3% for passage and 90.3% for duration when tested at a private hospital. Our model provides outcome and duration of passage predictions for patients presenting acutely in the emergency room with a single ureteral/renal calculus. It performs better than experienced urologists and urology residents. It can be applied to a private practice setting with equal accuracy.

  11. Surgical Duration Estimation via Data Mining and Predictive Modeling: A Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, N.; Sir, M.Y.; Jankowski, C.J.; Pasupathy, K.S.

    2015-01-01

    Operating rooms (ORs) are one of the most expensive and profitable resources within a hospital system. OR managers strive to utilize these resources in the best possible manner. Traditionally, surgery durations are estimated using a moving average adjusted by the scheduler (adjusted system prediction or ASP). Other methods based on distributions, regression and data mining have also been proposed. To overcome difficulties with numerous procedure types and lack of sufficient sample size, and avoid distributional assumptions, the main objective is to develop a hybrid method of duration prediction and demonstrate using a case study. PMID:26958199

  12. Yawn duration predicts brain weight and cortical neuron number in mammals.

    PubMed

    Gallup, Andrew C; Church, Allyson M; Pelegrino, Anthony J

    2016-10-01

    Research indicates that the motor action pattern of yawning functions to promote cortical arousal and state change through enhanced intracranial circulation and brain cooling. Because the magnitude of this response likely corresponds to the degree of neurophysiological change, we hypothesized that interspecies variation in yawn duration would correlate with underlying neurological differences. Using openly accessible data, we show that both the mean and variance in yawn duration are robust predictors of mammalian brain weight and cortical neuron number (ρ-values > 0.9). Consistent with these effects, primates tend to have longer and more variable yawn durations compared with other mammals. Although yawning has long been considered a stereotyped action pattern, these findings reveal substantial variation in this response and highlight the importance of measuring yawn duration in future research. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  14. Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heller, Rene; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  15. Predictions of Flow Duration Curve Shifts Due to Anthropogenic and Climatic Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, N. F.; Kroll, C. N.; Endreny, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    Methods are needed to understand and predict streamflows in systems undergoing anthropogenic and climatic alteration. This study is motivated by a need to develop methods to accurately estimate historical and future flow regimes of the Delaware River to inform management decisions for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon). Many streamflow regimes in this system have undergone substantial alteration within the past 100 years. Here, flow duration curves (FDCs), a common hydrologic tool used to assess flow regimes, are created and examined at 145 Delaware River Basin catchments. These catchments have experienced various hydrologic alterations, including land use changes, water withdrawals, and river regulation due to dams and reservoirs. Linear regression models are developed for various percentile flows across a FDC. These models use watershed characteristics that describe observed flow regimes in altered as well as unaltered systems. The characteristics that have the most significant influence on the shape of the FDCs are then identified and isolated as descriptors of the alteration. Once these models are developed to include these key variables, given a specific alteration (e.g. fresh water withdrawals, change in annual precipitation, etc.), a new flow regime can be estimated. Preliminary results indicate that certain watershed characteristics related to alteration (e.g. magnitude of land fragmentation, water withdrawals, hydrologic disturbance index) are significant in our models and influence FDC patterns. The results of this study may prove to have broader applications in regards to water resources management as the methods developed here may serve as a predictive tool as human interference and climatic changes continue to alter flow regimes.

  16. Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

    PubMed

    Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

    2016-09-01

    During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

  17. Autoregressive conditional duration as a model for financial market crashes prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pyrlik, Vladimir

    2013-12-01

    There is an increasing number of studies showing that financial market crashes can be detected and predicted. The main aim of the research was to develop a technique for crashes prediction based on the analysis of durations between sequent crashes of a certain magnitude of Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have found significant autocorrelation in the series of durations between sequent crashes and suggest autoregressive conditional duration models (ACD) to forecast the crashes. We apply the rolling intervals technique in the sample of more than 400 DJIA crashes in 1896-2011 and repeatedly use the data on 100 sequent crashes to estimate a family of ACD models and calculate forecasts of the one following crash. It appears that the ACD models provide significant predictive power when combined with the inter-event waiting time technique. This suggests that despite the high quality of retrospective predictions, using the technique for real-time forecasting seems rather ineffective, as in the case of every particular crash the specification of the ACD model, which would provide the best quality prediction, is rather hard to identify.

  18. The Use of One-Sample Prediction Intervals for Estimating CO2 Scrubber Canister Durations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-01

    testing) that describe the characteristics of carbon dioxide absorbent canisters in closed - and semiclosed- circuit UBAs ( rebreathers ). The...CONCLUSIONS As described in engineering statistics texts, the use of one-sample prediction intervals is profitably applied to the testing of closed - circuit ...Duration Limits for Closed - Circuit Underwater Breathing Apparatus, NEDU TR 2-99, Navy Experimental Diving Unit, April 1999. 2. J. Clarke, K

  19. QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adults with tetralogy of Fallot.

    PubMed

    Bokma, Jouke P; Winter, Michiel M; Vehmeijer, Jim T; Vliegen, Hubert W; van Dijk, Arie P; van Melle, Joost P; Meijboom, Folkert J; Post, Martijn C; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Mulder, Barbara J M; Bouma, Berto J

    2017-05-01

    Although QRS duration >180 ms has prognostic value in adults with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), its sensitivity to predict mortality is low. Fragmented QRS complexes, a simple measurement on ECG, are related to myocardial fibrosis and dysfunction in patients with TOF. Our objective was to determine whether QRS fragmentation predicts major outcomes in TOF. This multicentre study included adult patients with TOF from a prospective registry. Notches in the QRS complex in ≥2 contiguous leads on a 12-lead ECG, not related to bundle branch block, were defined as QRS fragmentation, which was classified as none, moderate (≤4 leads) or severe (≥5 leads). The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and clinical ventricular arrhythmia, respectively. A total of 794 adult patients with TOF (median age 27 years, 55% male; 52% no QRS fragmentation, 32% moderate, 16% severe) were included. During long-term (median 10.4 years) follow-up, 46 (6%) patients died and 35 (4%) patients had ventricular arrhythmias. Overall, 10-year survival was 98% in patients without fragmented QRS complexes, 93% in patients with moderate QRS fragmentation and 81% in patients with severe QRS fragmentation. In multivariable Cox hazards regression analysis, extent of QRS fragmentation (HR: 2.24/class, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.40, p<0.001) remained independently predictive for mortality, whereas QRS duration was not predictive (p=0.85). The extent of QRS fragmentation was also independently predictive for ventricular arrhythmia (HR: 2.00/class, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.16, p=0.003). The extent of QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adult patients with TOF and may be used in risk stratification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  20. Predicting Future Clinical Adjustment from Treatment Outcome and Process Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patterson, G. R.; Forgatch, Marion S.

    1995-01-01

    Issues related to the use of outcome and process data from the treatment of antisocial children to predict future childhood adjustment were examined through a study of 69 children. Data supported the hypothesis that measures of processes thought to produce changes in child behavior would serve to predict future adjustment. (SLD)

  1. Consistent Predictions of Future Forest Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We examined empirical and model based estimates of current and future forest mortality of conifers in the northern hemisphere. Consistent water potential thresholds were found that resulted in mortality of our case study species, pinon pine and one-seed juniper. Extending these results with IPCC climate scenarios suggests that most existing trees in this region (SW USA) will be dead by 2050. Further, independent estimates of future mortality for the entire coniferous biome suggest widespread mortality by 2100. The validity and assumptions and implications of these results are discussed.

  2. Predictability Effects on Durations of Content and Function Words in Conversational English

    SciTech Connect

    Bell, Alan; Brenier, Jason; Gregory, Michelle L.; girand, cynthia; Jurafsky, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Content and function word duration are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Regression analyses of conversational speech show that content words are shorter when they are more frequent, but function words are not. Repeated content words are shorter, but function words are not. Furthermore, function words have shorter pronunciations, after controlling for frequency and predictability. both content and function words are strongly affected by predictability from the word following them, and only very frequent function words show sensitivity to predictability from the preceding word. The results support the view that content and function words are accessed by different production mechanisms. We argue that words’ form differences due to frequency or repetition stem from their faster or slower lexical access, mediated by a general mechanism that coordinates the pace of higher-level planning and the execution of the articulatory plan.

  3. "Megatrends" and Knowledge Gaps: Future Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaziano, Cecilie

    The distribution of knowledge in society tends to parallel the distribution of other social and economic resources. Currently four major socioeconomic trends point not only to widened knowledge gaps in the future but also to greater divisions between higher and lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups. First, a long-term trend toward a more…

  4. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. These approaches are less well-suited, however, to the challenges of global toxicity prediction, i.e., to predicting the potential toxicity of structurally diverse chemicals across a wide range of end points of regulatory and pharmaceutical concern. New approaches that have the potential to significantly improve capabilities in predictive toxicology are elaborating the “activity” portion of the SAR paradigm. Recent advances in two areas of endeavor are particularly promising. Toxicity data informatics relies on standardized data schema, developed for particular areas of toxicological study, to facilitate data integration and enable relational exploration and mining of data across both historical and new areas of toxicological investigation. Bioassay profiling refers to large-scale high-throughput screening approaches that use chemicals as probes to broadly characterize biological response space, extending the concept of chemical “properties” to the biological activity domain. The effective capture and representation of legacy and new toxicity data into mineable form and the large-scale generation of new bioassay data in relation to chemical toxicity, both employing chemical stru

  5. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.

    2014-09-01

    An empirical period-of-record flow-duration curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. In many practical applications one has to construct FDCs in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present an application strategy of top-kriging, which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting FDCs in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.); here the procedure is used to predict the entire curve in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. In particular, we propose to standardise empirical FDCs by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation × the drainage area) and to compute the overall negative deviation of the curves from this reference value. We then propose to use these values, which we term total negative deviation (TND), for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We focus on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in central Italy, and we quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique under various operational conditions through an extensive cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. The cross-validation points out that top-kriging is a reliable approach for predicting FDCs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures ranging from 0.85 to 0.96 (depending on the model settings) very low biases over the entire duration range, and an enhanced representation of the low-flow regime relative to other regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region.

  6. Applications Determine the Best Model to Predict Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flow duration curves (FDCs) are an important tool for watershed management and their prediction in ungauged catchments is a challenging problem. Selecting the most appropriate model for prediction the FDC is itself a challenge that determines how theoretical improvements in prediction are transferred into engineering practice. Available performance metrics (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient, error on flow moments) typically consider the aggregated ability of the model to predict all streamflow quantiles. These metrics may be inappropriate for model selection in practice because watershed management decisions are typically driven by a limited number of streamflow quantiles that may be poorly represented by an aggregate performance metric. As an illustrative case study, the performance of three distinct FDC prediction approaches -- graphical, statistical and process-based -- are compared for ungauged streams in Nepal. The practical application of these predictions is to inform the design of run-of-river hydropower plants. The process-based approach provides the best prediction of the observed flow distribution and results in significantly higher Nash coefficients. However, the graphical approach provides the best prediction of the flow quantiles that are most relevant for hydropower design and reduces the design error caused by streamflow estimation. To assist in an application driven model selection process, we propose a novel model selection framework.

  7. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

    2014-01-01

    Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

  8. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2015-07-01

    Adolescent future values - beliefs about what will matter to them in the future - may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors.

  9. Regional prediction of flow-duration curves using a three-dimensional kriging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellarin, Attilio

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows over a number of years for a given basin is often termed long-term flow-duration curve (FDC). This analysis addresses the problem of predicting FDCs in ungauged basins by means of a three-dimensional (3D) kriging interpolation of empirical FDCs. A three-dimensional xyz space is defined to perform the interpolation, where x and y are functions of physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors, while z represents the streamflow duration in terms of standard-normal variate. The 3D interpolation technique is applied to several catchments located in two broad geographical regions of Northern (Alpine catchments) and Central (Apenninic catchments) Italy, for which several geomorphological and climatic descriptors are available. An extensive cross-validation procedure is used to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique in both case studies, and to compare it to traditional regionalization procedures. The cross-validation points out that 3D kriging is a reliable and robust approach, which performs as well as or better than traditional regional models. In particular the approach significantly outperforms conventional approaches for the prediction of low-flows (i.e. streamflows associated with high durations) in ungauged basins.

  10. Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Bradley Z.; Choler, Philippe; Renaud, Julien; Dedieu, Jean-Pierre; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Quantifying relationships between snow cover duration and plant community properties remains an important challenge in alpine ecology. This study develops a method to estimate spatial variation in energy availability in the context of a topographically complex, high-elevation watershed, which was used to test the explanatory power of environmental gradients both with and without snow cover in relation to taxonomic and functional plant diversity. Methods Snow cover in the French Alps was mapped at 15-m resolution using Landsat imagery for five recent years, and a generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted for each year linking snow to time and topography. Predicted snow cover maps were combined with air temperature and solar radiation data at daily resolution, summed for each year and averaged across years. Equivalent growing season energy gradients were also estimated without accounting for snow cover duration. Relationships were tested between environmental gradients and diversity metrics measured for 100 plots, including species richness, community-weighted mean traits, functional diversity and hyperspectral estimates of canopy chlorophyll content. Key Results Accounting for snow cover in environmental variables consistently led to improved predictive power as well as more ecologically meaningful characterizations of plant diversity. Model parameters differed significantly when fitted with and without snow cover. Filtering solar radiation with snow as compared without led to an average gain in R2 of 0·26 and reversed slope direction to more intuitive relationships for several diversity metrics. Conclusions The results show that in alpine environments high-resolution data on snow cover duration are pivotal for capturing the spatial heterogeneity of both taxonomic and functional diversity. The use of climate variables without consideration of snow cover can lead to erroneous predictions of plant diversity. The results further indicate that

  11. Spatio-temporal variation in the incubation duration and sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings: implication for future management.

    PubMed

    dei Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Santos, Alexsandro S; Soares, Luciano S; Lopez, Gustave G; Godfrey, Matthew H; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Fuentes, Mariana M P B

    2014-08-01

    Climate change poses a unique threat to species with temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), such as marine turtles, where increases in temperature can result in extreme sex ratio biases. Knowledge of the primary sex ratio of populations with TSD is key for providing a baseline to inform management strategies and to accurately predict how future climate changes may affect turtle populations. However, there is a lack of robust data on offspring sex ratio at appropriate temporal and spatial scales to inform management decisions. To address this, we estimate the primary sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, from incubation duration of 5514 in situ nests from 10 nesting beaches from two regions in Brazil over the last 27 years. A strong female bias was estimated in all beaches, with 96% and 89% average female sex ratios produced in Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). Both inter-annual (BA, 88 to 99%; RN, 75 to 96% female) and inter-beach (BA, 92% to 97%; RN, 81% to 92% female) variability in mean offspring sex ratio was observed. These findings will guide management decisions in Brazil and provide further evidence of highly female-skew sex ratios in hawksbill turtles.

  12. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  13. Forest tree seedlings may suffer from predicted future winters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domisch, Timo; Repo, Tapani; Martz, Françoise; Rautio, Pasi

    2016-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased precipitation and air temperatures, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter, spring and autumn. However, soil temperatures are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the insulating snow cover. Warm periods during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles and flooding, which again can result in the formation of ice layers, affecting soil properties, soil gas concentrations and the survival of tree seedlings. We conducted two laboratory experiments of 20 weeks duration each, simulating winter, spring and early summer, and imposed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) or downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) seedlings to four different winter scenarios: (1) ambient snow cover, (2) compressed snow and ice encasement, (3) frozen flood and (4) no snow. We estimated the stress that the seedlings experienced by means of gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence and determining above- and belowground biomass and carbohydrate contents, as well as measuring soil oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations. The seedlings in the snow and compressed snow treatments survived until the end of the experiments, although only those covered with an ambient snow cover showed normal height growth and typical carbohydrate contents. The seedlings in the other treatments showed symptoms of dieback already during early spring and had almost completely died at the end of the experiment. Our results suggest the crucial significance of the protective snow cover, and that a missing soil cover or soil hypoxia and anoxia during winter can be lethal for seedlings, and that respiratory losses and winter desiccation of aboveground organs can further lead to the death of tree seedlings.

  14. Predicting breastfeeding duration related to maternal attitudes in a taiwanese sample.

    PubMed

    Ho, Yen-Ju; McGrath, Jacqueline M

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine maternal attitudes and sociodemographic variables associated with Taiwanese mothers' continuation of breastfeeding at 6 weeks postpartum. A sample of 140 in-hospital breastfeeding mothers was recruited in Taiwan. Participants completed the Iowa Infant Feeding Attitude Scale (IIFAS) in the hospital prior to discharge. Postdischarge participants were contacted by telephone at 3 and 6 weeks postpartum to obtain information regarding their feeding method and duration. Findings revealed that in-hospital maternal breastfeeding attitudes are predictive of breastfeeding duration. Insufficient milk supply was the reason most often given for discontinuing breastfeeding. Women's husband/partner was found to be the main source of breastfeeding support. We recommend health-care professionals add the IIFAS to their assessment to identify mothers at high risk for discontinuing breastfeeding and to develop and better evaluate breastfeeding promotion programs.

  15. Predicting Breastfeeding Duration Related to Maternal Attitudes in a Taiwanese Sample

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Yen-Ju; McGrath, Jacqueline M.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine maternal attitudes and sociodemographic variables associated with Taiwanese mothers’ continuation of breastfeeding at 6 weeks postpartum. A sample of 140 in-hospital breastfeeding mothers was recruited in Taiwan. Participants completed the Iowa Infant Feeding Attitude Scale (IIFAS) in the hospital prior to discharge. Postdischarge participants were contacted by telephone at 3 and 6 weeks postpartum to obtain information regarding their feeding method and duration. Findings revealed that in-hospital maternal breastfeeding attitudes are predictive of breastfeeding duration. Insufficient milk supply was the reason most often given for discontinuing breastfeeding. Women’s husband/partner was found to be the main source of breastfeeding support. We recommend health-care professionals add the IIFAS to their assessment to identify mothers at high risk for discontinuing breastfeeding and to develop and better evaluate breastfeeding promotion programs. PMID:22942621

  16. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

    2014-05-01

    An empirical period-of-record Flow-Duration Curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. FDCs have always attracted a great deal of interest in engineering applications because of their ability to provide a simple yet comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability of streamflows in a river basin, from floods to low-flows. Nevertheless, in many practical applications one has to construct FDC in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present in this study an application strategy of Topological kriging (or Top-kriging), which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting flow-duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of Top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.). In this study Top-kriging is used to predict FDCs in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. Our study focuses on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in Central Italy, for which daily streamflow series with length from 5 to 40 years are available, together with information on climate referring to the same time-span of each daily streamflow sequence. Empirical FDCs are standardised by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation times the catchment drainage area) and the overall deviation of the curves from this reference value is then used for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We performed an extensive leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique, and to compare it to traditional regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region. The cross-validation points

  17. The UT 7/8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event and Future Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benecchi, S. D.; Noll, K. S.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W. M.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A superior mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 h on UT 7/8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four different telescope facilities; it started approximately 1.5 h earlier than anticipated, the duration was approximately 9.5 h (about 10% longer than predicted), and was slightly less deep than predicted. It is the first full event observed for a comparably sized binary Kuiper Belt object. We provide predictions for future events refined by this and other partial mutual event observations obtained since the mutual event season began.

  18. Duration of resuscitation efforts for in-hospital cardiac arrest by predicted outcomes: Insights from Get With The Guidelines - Resuscitation.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Steven M; Liu, Wenhui; Chan, Paul S; Girotra, Saket; Goldberger, Zachary D; Valle, Javier A; Perman, Sarah M; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K

    2017-04-01

    The duration of resuscitation efforts has implications for patient survival of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). It is unknown if patients with better predicted survival of IHCA receive longer attempts at resuscitation. In a multicenter observational cohort of 40,563 adult non-survivors of resuscitation efforts for IHCA between 2000 and 2012, we determined the pre-arrest predicted probability of survival to discharge with good neurologic status, categorized into very low (<1%), low (1-3%), average (>3%-15%), and above average (>15%). We then determined the association between predicted arrest survival probability and the duration of resuscitation efforts. The median duration of resuscitation efforts among all non-survivors was 19min (interquartile range 13-28min). Overall, the median duration of resuscitation efforts was longer in non-survivors with a higher predicted probability of survival with good neurologic status (median of 16, 17, 20, and 23min among the groups predicted to have very low, low, average, and above probabilities, respectively; P<0.001). However, the duration of resuscitation was often discordant with predicted survival, including longer than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 40.4% of patients with very low predicted survival and shorter than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 31.9% of patients with above average predicted survival. The duration of resuscitation efforts in patients with IHCA was generally consistent with their predicted survival. However, nearly a third of patients with above average predicted outcomes received shorter than average (less than 19min) duration of resuscitation efforts. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Predicting UV sky for future UV missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safonova, M.; Mohan, R.; Sreejith, A. G.; Murthy, Jayant

    2013-02-01

    Software simulators are now widely used in all areas of science, especially in application to astronomical missions: from instrument design to mission planning, and to data interpretation. We present a simulator to model the diffuse ultraviolet sky, where the different contributors are separately calculated and added together to produce a sky image of the size specified by the instrument requirements. Each of the contributors to the background, instrumental dark current, airglow, zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light, depends on different factors. Airglow is dependent on the time of day; zodiacal light depends on the time of year, angle from the Sun and from the ecliptic; diffuse UV emission depends on the line of sight. To provide a full description of the sky along any line of sight, we have also added stars. The UV background light can dominate in many areas of the sky and severely limit viewing directions due to overbrightness. The simulator, available as a downloadable package and as a web-based tool, can be applied to preparation of real space missions and instruments. For demonstration, we present the example use for the two near-future UV missions: UVIT instrument on the Indian Astrosat mission and a new proposed wide-field (∼1000 square degrees) transient explorer satellite.

  20. Predicting future discoveries from current scientific literature.

    PubMed

    Petrič, Ingrid; Cestnik, Bojan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge discovery in biomedicine is a time-consuming process starting from the basic research, through preclinical testing, towards possible clinical applications. Crossing of conceptual boundaries is often needed for groundbreaking biomedical research that generates highly inventive discoveries. We demonstrate the ability of a creative literature mining method to advance valuable new discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. When emerging ideas from scientific literature are put together as fragments of knowledge in a systematic way, they may lead to original, sometimes surprising, research findings. If enough scientific evidence is already published for the association of such findings, they can be considered as scientific hypotheses. In this chapter, we describe a method for the computer-aided generation of such hypotheses based on the existing scientific literature. Our literature-based discovery of NF-kappaB with its possible connections to autism was recently approved by scientific community, which confirms the ability of our literature mining methodology to accelerate future discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature.

  1. The serum concentrations of leptin and MCP-1 independently predict low back pain duration.

    PubMed

    Lippi, Giuseppe; Dagostino, Concetta; Buonocore, Ruggero; Aloe, Rosalia; Bonaguri, Chiara; Fanelli, Guido; Allegri, Massimo

    2017-08-28

    Low back pain (LBP) is a very frequent condition, affecting most people at some point throughout their life. This cross-sectional study was aimed to investigate a selected panel of cytokines and inflammatory biomarkers in patients with or without LBP. The study population consisted of 104 patients diagnosed with LBP (52 non-persistent and 52 persistent) and 52 healthy subjects with no LBP. Blood samples were collected for assessment of adiponectin, leptin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) and C reactive protein (CRP). The duration of LBP was categorized as "no pain", "non-persistent LBP" and "persistent LBP". Higher values of CRP and lower concentrations of both leptin and MCP-1 were found in LBP patients compared to controls, whereas adiponectin did not differ among groups. MCP-1 was also lower in patients with non-persistent than in those with persistent LBP. Age, leptin (relative risk, 11.8; 95% CI, 3.9-35.8) and MCP-1 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.4) were independently associated with presence and duration of LBP. The combination of age, leptin and MCP-1 predicted 61% of the risk of LBP duration. The area under the curve of MCP-1 for distinguishing persistent from non-persistent LBP was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.54-0.76). Then results of our study suggest that leptin and MCP-1 may be promising biomarkers for diagnosis of acute LBP and its risk to become chronic.

  2. Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients.

    PubMed

    Horwitz, Adam G; Czyz, Ewa K; King, Cheryl A

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15 to 24 years (M=19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency services during a 9-month period. These patients' medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Socioeconomic status, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for male patients but not female). Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for male patients.

  3. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. Photographed are a group of contributing researchers in front of the Solar Vector Magnetograph at MSFC. The researchers are part of NSSTC's solar physics group, which develops instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic fields and the impact they have on Earth's space environment.

  4. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and university scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are watching the Sun in an effort to better predict space weather - blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun that impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. Filled by charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, the spherical comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's surface in the sunward direction and more in other directions. This image illustrates the Sun-Earth cornection. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. By using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at MSFC, scientists are learning what signs to look for as indicators of potential severe space weather.

  5. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. The researchers from MSFC and NSSTC's solar physics group develop instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic field and the impact it has on Earth's space environment. This photograph shows the Solar Vector Magnetograph and Dr. Mona Hagyard of MSFC, the director of the observatory who leads the development, operation and research program of the Solar Vector Magnetograph.

  6. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. The researchers from MSFC and NSSTC's solar physics group develop instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic field and the impact it has on Earth's space environment. This photograph shows the Solar Vector Magnetograph and Dr. Mona Hagyard of MSFC, the director of the observatory who leads the development, operation and research program of the Solar Vector Magnetograph.

  7. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. Photographed are a group of contributing researchers in front of the Solar Vector Magnetograph at MSFC. The researchers are part of NSSTC's solar physics group, which develops instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic fields and the impact they have on Earth's space environment.

  8. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and university scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are watching the Sun in an effort to better predict space weather - blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun that impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. Filled by charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, the spherical comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's surface in the sunward direction and more in other directions. This image illustrates the Sun-Earth cornection. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. By using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at MSFC, scientists are learning what signs to look for as indicators of potential severe space weather.

  9. Sleep duration, but not insomnia, predicts the 2-year course of depressive and anxiety disorders.

    PubMed

    van Mill, Josine G; Vogelzangs, Nicole; van Someren, Eus J W; Hoogendijk, Witte J G; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    2014-02-01

    To examine the predictive role of insomnia and sleep duration on the 2-year course of depressive and anxiety disorders. This study is a secondary data analysis based on data from the baseline (2004-2007) and 2-year assessment of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. Participants were 1,069 individuals with DSM-IV-based depressive and/or anxiety disorders at baseline. Sleep measures included insomnia (Women's Health Initiative Insomnia Rating Scale score ≥ 9) and sleep duration (categorized as short [≤ 6 hours], normal [7-9 hours], or long [≥ 10 hours]). Outcome measures were persistence of DSM-IV depressive and anxiety disorders (current diagnosis at 2-year follow-up), time to remission, and clinical course trajectory of symptoms (early sustained remission, late remission/recurrence, and chronic course). Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and chronic medical disorders, psychotropic medications, and severity of depressive and anxiety symptoms. The effect of insomnia on persistence of depressive and/or anxiety disorders (OR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.16-1.94) was explained by severity of baseline depressive/anxiety symptoms (adjusted OR with severity = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.79-1.37). Long sleep duration was independently associated with persistence of depression/anxiety even after adjusting for severity of psychiatric symptoms (OR = 2.52; 95% CI, 1.27-4.99). For short sleep duration, the independent association with persistence of combined depression/anxiety showed a trend toward significance (OR = 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98-1.78), and a significant association for the persistence of depressive disorders (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-2.00). Both short and long sleep duration were independently associated with a chronic course trajectory (short sleep: OR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04-2.16; long sleep: OR = 2.91, 95% CI, 1.22-6.93). Both short and long sleep duration-but not insomnia-are important predictors of a chronic course, independent of

  10. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  11. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  12. Prediction of regional flow duration curves: geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Farmer, W. H.; Castellarin, A.; Archfield, S. A.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs in ungauged basins is of great importance in those locations characterized by sparse, or more often missing, streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two approaches which are capable of predicting an FDC in ungauged basins. An adaptation of the geostatistical method Top-kriging employs a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardized for a reference streamflow value. Weights are the result of the application of Top-kriging over a point index which, empirically, expresses the similarity between curves. Dimensional FDCs are then reconstructed developing a similar Top-kriging-based model capable of predicting the reference streamflow in the same sites. The second method is based on regional multiple linear regressions and is one of the most common method for prediction of FDCs in ungauged sites. Comparisons of these two methods are made at 182, mostly unregulated, river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform very similarly throughout flow-regimes, showing average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.566 and 0.662 in natural scale, while 0.883 and 0.829 in log-transformed scale, for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. However, some complementarities are shown in the very low-flow regime, i.e. duration greater than 0.95, where the two models highlight different behaviors whether considering natural or log-transformed streamflows.

  13. Parathyroid score can predict the duration of required calcium supplementation after total thyroidectomy

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Soo Young; Lee, Yong Sang; Kim, Seok-Mo; Chang, Hang-Seok; Park, Cheong Soo

    2017-01-01

    Background Postoperative hypoparathyroidism is the most common complication after total thyroidectomy, owing to unintentional injury or decreased blood flow to the parathyroid glands. Prediction of postoperative hypoparathyroidism would be helpful for surgeons to manage postoperative hypocalcemia. In this study, we scored the discoloration of the parathyroid glands using a new parathyroid scoring system and evaluated the correlation between the parathyroid score and duration of required calcium supplementation after total thyroidectomy. Methods A total of 316 patients undergoing total thyroidectomy between November 2009 and April 2010 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Parathyroid scoring was performed by one experienced surgeon. The status of each of the 4 parathyroid glands was classified as normal color (3 points), slightly discolored (2 points), dark discoloration (1 point), or loss of the gland (0 points), resulting in possible total scores of 0–12. Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), serum calcium, and ionized calcium concentrations were measured at 2 hours, 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year after surgery. Patients were also divided into three groups based on the duration of required calcium supplementation: no required supplementation (n = 260, 82.3%), required supplementation for <6 months (n = 38, 12%), and required supplementation for ≥6 months (n = 18, 5.75%). Results Parathyroid scores were positively correlated with ionized PTH concentrations at 2 hours (r = 0.053, p < 0.001), 2 weeks (r = 0.056, p < 0.001), 3 months (r = 0.032, p<0.001), 6 months (r = 0.072, p < 0.001), and 1 year (r = 0.071, p < 0.001) after thyroidectomy. Parathyroid scores were significantly and inversely associated with the duration of required calcium supplementation (p = 0.001). Conclusions Parathyroid scores at the end of surgery might be helpful for predicting the degree of postoperative hypocalcemia after total thyroidetomy. PMID:28350886

  14. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  15. Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities.

    PubMed

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Choler, Philippe; Renaud, Julien; Dedieu, Jean-Pierre; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2015-11-01

    Quantifying relationships between snow cover duration and plant community properties remains an important challenge in alpine ecology. This study develops a method to estimate spatial variation in energy availability in the context of a topographically complex, high-elevation watershed, which was used to test the explanatory power of environmental gradients both with and without snow cover in relation to taxonomic and functional plant diversity. Snow cover in the French Alps was mapped at 15-m resolution using Landsat imagery for five recent years, and a generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted for each year linking snow to time and topography. Predicted snow cover maps were combined with air temperature and solar radiation data at daily resolution, summed for each year and averaged across years. Equivalent growing season energy gradients were also estimated without accounting for snow cover duration. Relationships were tested between environmental gradients and diversity metrics measured for 100 plots, including species richness, community-weighted mean traits, functional diversity and hyperspectral estimates of canopy chlorophyll content. Accounting for snow cover in environmental variables consistently led to improved predictive power as well as more ecologically meaningful characterizations of plant diversity. Model parameters differed significantly when fitted with and without snow cover. Filtering solar radiation with snow as compared without led to an average gain in R(2) of 0·26 and reversed slope direction to more intuitive relationships for several diversity metrics. The results show that in alpine environments high-resolution data on snow cover duration are pivotal for capturing the spatial heterogeneity of both taxonomic and functional diversity. The use of climate variables without consideration of snow cover can lead to erroneous predictions of plant diversity. The results further indicate that studies seeking to predict the response of alpine

  16. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Cai, Ting; Mi, Zhongyuan; Georgopoulos, Panos

    2015-02-01

    Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5%-30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0-6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.

  17. Predicting streamflows in snowmelt-driven watersheds using the flow duration curve method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kaluarachchi, J.

    2014-05-01

    Predicting streamflows in snow-fed watersheds in the Western United States is important for water allocation. Since many of these watersheds are heavily regulated through canal networks and reservoirs, predicting expected natural flows and therefore water availability under limited data is always a challenge. This study investigates the applicability of the flow duration curve (FDC) method for predicting natural flows in gauged and regulated snow-fed watersheds. Point snow observations, air temperature, precipitation, and snow water equivalent were used to simulate the snowmelt process with the SNOW-17 model, and extended to streamflow simulation using the FDC method with a modified current precipitation index. For regulated watersheds, a parametric regional FDC method was applied to reconstruct natural flow. For comparison, a simplified tank model was used considering both lumped and semi-distributed approaches. The proximity regionalization method was used to simulate streamflows in the regulated watersheds with the tank model. The results showed that the FDC method is capable of producing satisfactory natural flow estimates in gauged watersheds when high correlation exists between current precipitation index and streamflow. For regulated watersheds, the regional FDC method produced acceptable river diversion estimates, but it seemed to have more uncertainty due to less robustness of the FDC method. In spite of its simplicity, the FDC method is a practical approach with less computational burden for studies with minimal data availability.

  18. Development of Response Spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations from Empirical Models for Fourier Spectra and Duration of Ground Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bora, S. S.; Scherbaum, F.; Kuehn, N. M.; Stafford, P.; Edwards, B.

    2014-12-01

    In a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework, it still remains a challenge to adjust ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for application in different seismological environments. In this context, this study presents a complete framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE easily adjustable to different seismological conditions; and which does not suffer from the technical problems associated with the adjustment in response spectral domain. Essentially, the approach consists of an empirical FAS (Fourier Amplitude Spectrum) model and a duration model for ground motion which are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework to obtain the full response spectral ordinates. Additionally, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the frequency range defined by the data using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards & Faeh, (2013). To that end, an empirical model for a duration, which is tuned to optimize the fit between RVT based and observed response spectral ordinate, at each oscillator frequency is derived. Although, the main motive of the presented approach was to address the adjustability issues of response spectral GMPEs; comparison, of median predicted response spectra with the other regional models indicate that presented approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. Besides that, a significantly lower aleatory variability (σ<0.5 in log units) in comparison to other regional models, at shorter periods brands it to a potentially viable alternative to the classical regression (on response spectral ordinates) based GMPEs for seismic hazard studies in the near future. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

  19. Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.; Farassat, F.

    1992-01-01

    The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

  20. Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.; Farassat, F.

    1992-01-01

    The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

  1. Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Hurricane Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2008-10-01

    Recent advances and future challenges in hurricane prediction reviewed. More skillful hurricane prediction is needed due to the some societal impacts, which include a high percentage of population living along coastal areas, costly evacuation, evacuation numbers depending on hurricane size and intensity, and the effects of global warming. In order to make skillful hurricane prediction, one has to understand the origin of hurricanes, such as that the precursors of eastern Atlantic major hurricanes are originated from African easterly waves and the embedded mesoscale convective systems over eastern North Africa. In this paper, we review the recent advances in hurricane forecast process, numerical weather prediction techniques, models used for hurricane prediction, hurricane track prediction, hurricane intensity and rainfall prediction, and seasonal hurricane forecast. Finally, the potential impacts of global warming on hurricane frequency and intensity are discussed. This work is supported by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Educational Partnership Program under the cooperative agreement NA06OAR4810187.

  2. 'It is Time to Prepare the Next patient' Real-Time Prediction of Procedure Duration in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomies.

    PubMed

    Guédon, Annetje C P; Paalvast, M; Meeuwsen, F C; Tax, D M J; van Dijke, A P; Wauben, L S G L; van der Elst, M; Dankelman, J; van den Dobbelsteen, J J

    2016-12-01

    Operating Room (OR) scheduling is crucial to allow efficient use of ORs. Currently, the predicted durations of surgical procedures are unreliable and the OR schedulers have to follow the progress of the procedures in order to update the daily planning accordingly. The OR schedulers often acquire the needed information through verbal communication with the OR staff, which causes undesired interruptions of the surgical process. The aim of this study was to develop a system that predicts in real-time the remaining procedure duration and to test this prediction system for reliability and usability in an OR. The prediction system was based on the activation pattern of one single piece of equipment, the electrosurgical device. The prediction system was tested during 21 laparoscopic cholecystectomies, in which the activation of the electrosurgical device was recorded and processed in real-time using pattern recognition methods. The remaining surgical procedure duration was estimated and the optimal timing to prepare the next patient for surgery was communicated to the OR staff. The mean absolute error was smaller for the prediction system (14 min) than for the OR staff (19 min). The OR staff doubted whether the prediction system could take all relevant factors into account but were positive about its potential to shorten waiting times for patients. The prediction system is a promising tool to automatically and objectively predict the remaining procedure duration, and thereby achieve optimal OR scheduling and streamline the patient flow from the nursing department to the OR.

  3. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    PubMed

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  4. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  5. Lowering social security's duration-of-marriage requirement: distributional effects for future female retirees.

    PubMed

    Tamborini, Christopher R; Whitman, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    A number of alternatives to Social Security's auxiliary benefit system have been proposed in the context of changes in American family and work patterns. This article focuses on one modification therein-lowering the 10-year duration-of-marriage requirement for divorced spouses. Using a powerful microsimulation model (MINT), we examine the distributional effects of extending spouse and survivor benefit eligibility to 5- and 7-year marriages ending in divorce among female retirees in 2030, a population largely comprised of baby boomers. Results show that the options would increase benefits for a small share of female retirees, around 2 to 4%, and would not affect the vast majority of low-income divorced older women. However, of those affected, the options would substantially increase benefits and lower incidence of poverty and near poor. Low-income divorced retirees with marriages between 5 and 9 years in length and a deceased former spouse face the greatest potential gains.

  6. Pre-operative function, motivation and duration of symptoms predict sporting participation after total hip replacement.

    PubMed

    Ollivier, M; Frey, S; Parratte, S; Flecher, X; Argenson, J N

    2014-08-01

    There is little in the literature on the level of participation in sports which patients undertake after total hip replacement (THR). Our aims in this study were to determine first, the level of sporting activity, second, the predictive factors for returning to sporting activity, and third, the correlation between participation in sports and satisfaction after THR. We retrospectively identified 815 patients who had undergone THR between 1995 and 2005. All were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding their sporting activity. A total of 571 patients (71%) met the inclusion criteria and completed the evaluation. At a mean follow-up of 9.8 years (sd 2.9), 366 patients (64%) returned to sporting activity as defined by a University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) score of > 5. The main reasons that patients had for refraining from sports were fear of dislocation (65; 31.6%), avoiding wear (52; 25.4%), and the recommendation of the surgeon (34; 16.6%). There was a significant relationship between higher post-operative participation in sport in those patients with a higher pre-operative Harris hip score (HHS) (p = 0.0074), motivation to participate in sporting activities (p = 0.00022) and a shorter duration of symptoms (p = 0.0034). Finally, there was a correlation between age (p = 0.00013), UCLA score (p = 0.012) and pre-operative HHS (p = 0.00091) and satisfaction. In conclusion, we found that most patients participate in sporting activity after THR, regardless of the advice of their surgeon, and that there is a correlation between the level of participation and pre-operative function, motivation, duration of symptoms and post-operative satisfaction. ©2014 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  7. The Future of Seizure Prediction and Intervention: Closing the loop

    PubMed Central

    Nagaraj, Vivek; Lee, Steven; Krook-Magnuson, Esther; Soltesz, Ivan; Benquet, Pascal; Irazoqui, Pedro; Netoff, Theoden

    2014-01-01

    The ultimate goal of epilepsy therapies is to provide seizure control for all patients while eliminating side effects. Improved specificity of intervention through on-demand approaches may overcome many of the limitations of current intervention strategies. This article reviews progress in seizure prediction and detection, potential new therapies to provide improved specificity, and devices to achieve these ends. Specifically, we discuss 1) potential signal modalities and algorithms for seizure detection and prediction, 2) closed-loop intervention approaches, and 3) hardware for implementing these algorithms and interventions. Seizure prediction and therapies maximize efficacy while minimizing side-effects through improved specificity may represent the future of epilepsy treatments. PMID:26035672

  8. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Treesearch

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  9. Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

    Treesearch

    Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

    1999-01-01

    We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

  10. Children's Predictions of Future Perceptual Experiences: Temporal Reasoning and Phenomenology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Patrick; Russell, James

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the development and cognitive correlates of envisioning future experiences in 3.5- to 6.5-year old children across 2 experiments, both of which involved toy trains traveling along a track. In the first, children were asked to predict the direction of train travel and color of train side, as it would be seen through an arch.…

  11. Children's Predictions of Future Perceptual Experiences: Temporal Reasoning and Phenomenology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Patrick; Russell, James

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the development and cognitive correlates of envisioning future experiences in 3.5- to 6.5-year old children across 2 experiments, both of which involved toy trains traveling along a track. In the first, children were asked to predict the direction of train travel and color of train side, as it would be seen through an arch.…

  12. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Treesearch

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  13. Prediction of the future number of wells in production

    SciTech Connect

    Coca, B.P.

    1981-01-01

    A method to predict the number of wells that will continue producing at a certain date in the future is presented. The method is applicable to reservoirs of the depletion type and is based on the survival probability concept. This is useful when forecasting by empirical methods. An example of a field in primary production is presented.

  14. Predicting Future Years of Life, Health, and Functional Ability

    PubMed Central

    Diehr, Paula; Diehr, Michael; Arnold, Alice; Yee, Laura M.; Odden, Michelle C.; Hirsch, Calvin H; Thielke, Stephen; Psaty, Bruce M.; Johnson, W. Craig; Kizer, MD, Jorge R.; Newman, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To create personalized estimates of future health and ability status for older adults. Method: Data came from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a large longitudinal study. Outcomes included years of life, years of healthy life (based on self-rated health), years of able life (based on activities of daily living), and years of healthy and able life. We developed regression estimates using the demographic and health characteristics that best predicted the four outcomes. Internal and external validity were assessed. Results: A prediction equation based on 11 variables accounted for about 40% of the variability for each outcome. Internal validity was excellent, and external validity was satisfactory. The resulting CHS Healthy Life Calculator (CHSHLC) is available at http://healthylifecalculator.org. Conclusion: CHSHLC provides a well-documented estimate of future years of healthy and able life for older adults, who may use it in planning for the future. PMID:28138467

  15. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  16. Trajectory Pattern Mining Using Sequential Pattern Mining and K-Means for Predicting Future Location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsar, G.; Akbar, S.

    2017-01-01

    Sequential pattern mining is a method used to find patterns while concerning the sequence of an item set. Sequential pattern mining can be used to find trajectory patterns in moving object data. To implement it in the real life, the spatial attribute of the data needs to be generalized/grouped. In this paper, K-Means is used to group the spatial attribute. In order to group the spatial attribute, the temporal attribute is also considered to see how the patterns are related to time. The resulting trajectory patterns are then used to visualize the habit of the moving object. Therefore, trajectory patterns are used as the reference in this paper to predict the future location of the object. Predicting the future location of the object is performed using the movement history of the object. Result of this research is trajectory pattern which repeat at certain time duration according to its data characteristics.

  17. Factors predicting duration of intraocular gas presence after 23-gauge transconjunctival sutureless vitrectomy for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment.

    PubMed

    Takashina, Hirotsugu; Watanabe, Akira; Mitooka, Katsuya; Tsuneoka, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    To investigate factors predicting duration of intraocular gas presence in 23-gauge transconjunctival sutureless vitrectomy. Retrospective review of 130 eyes that underwent 23-gauge transconjunctival sutureless vitrectomy. At the end of surgery, gas exchange and sclerotomy massage to promote self-sealing were performed. If sclerotomy leakage was suspected despite sclerotomy massage, a suture was placed. Factors predicting duration of intraocular gas presence in 23-gauge transconjunctival sutureless vitrectomy were examined using multiple regression analysis. An F value greater than 2 and P value less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Significant factors were axial length (F = 7.08; P < .05) and IOP on postoperative day 1 (F = 4.35; P < .05). Age, operation time, preoperative IOP, and number of sutured sclerotomies were not statistically significant. Factors predicting duration of intraocular gas presence in 23-gauge transconjunctival sutureless vitrectomy were axial length and postoperative IOP on day 1. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

  18. Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients

    PubMed Central

    Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Method Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15–24 years (M = 19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency (PE) services during a 9-month period. These patients’ medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Results SES, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for males, but not females). Conclusions Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for males. PMID:24871489

  19. Past makes future: role of pFC in prediction.

    PubMed

    Fuster, Joaquín M; Bressler, Steven L

    2015-04-01

    The pFC enables the essential human capacities for predicting future events and preadapting to them. These capacities rest on both the structure and dynamics of the human pFC. Structurally, pFC, together with posterior association cortex, is at the highest hierarchical level of cortical organization, harboring neural networks that represent complex goal-directed actions. Dynamically, pFC is at the highest level of the perception-action cycle, the circular processing loop through the cortex that interfaces the organism with the environment in the pursuit of goals. In its predictive and preadaptive roles, pFC supports cognitive functions that are critical for the temporal organization of future behavior, including planning, attentional set, working memory, decision-making, and error monitoring. These functions have a common future perspective and are dynamically intertwined in goal-directed action. They all utilize the same neural infrastructure: a vast array of widely distributed, overlapping, and interactive cortical networks of personal memory and semantic knowledge, named cognits, which are formed by synaptic reinforcement in learning and memory acquisition. From this cortex-wide reservoir of memory and knowledge, pFC generates purposeful, goal-directed actions that are preadapted to predicted future events.

  20. [Sleep duration and metabolism].

    PubMed

    Viot-Blanc, V

    2015-12-01

    Sleep duration has gradually diminished during the last decade while obesity and type 2 diabetes have become epidemics. Experimental sleep curtailment leads to increased appetite, hormonal disturbances and, especially, insulin resistance. Numerous epidemiological studies have therefore examined whether habitual short sleep is associated with obesity and type 2 diabetes. A large majority of cross-sectional studies have confirmed an association between short, and also long sleep duration and obesity in adults more than in the elderly. Short sleep is strongly associated to obesity in children and adolescents. Prospective studies, including studies in children, are not conclusive with regard to the effect of short sleep on the incidence of obesity. Both short and long sleep durations are associated with diabetes, but only short sleep duration seems predictive of future diabetes. Insomnia seems to be a strong contributor to short sleep duration but the association of insomnia with obesity is not clear. Insomnia is associated with type 2 diabetes and also predictive of a higher incidence. Other studies have shown that short sleep duration and insomnia are associated with, and sometime predictive of, other components of the metabolic syndrome, especially hypertension and the risk of coronary disease. The treatment of short sleep duration and insomnia with regard to their effects on the metabolic syndrome merits further study.

  1. Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

    2013-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

  2. Predicting temporary threshold shifts in a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus): the effects of noise level and duration.

    PubMed

    Mooney, T Aran; Nachtigall, Paul E; Breese, Marlee; Vlachos, Stephanie; Au, Whitlow W L

    2009-03-01

    Noise levels in the ocean are increasing and are expected to affect marine mammals. To examine the auditory effects of noise on odontocetes, a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) was exposed to octave-band noise (4-8 kHz) of varying durations (<2-30 min) and sound pressures (130-178 dB re 1 microPa). Temporary threshold shift (TTS) occurrence was quantified in an effort to (i) determine the sound exposure levels (SELs) (dB re 1 microPa(2) s) that induce TTS and (ii) develop a model to predict TTS onset. Hearing thresholds were measured using auditory evoked potentials. If SEL was kept constant, significant shifts were induced by longer duration exposures but not for shorter exposures. Higher SELs were required to induce shifts in shorter duration exposures. The results did not support an equal-energy model to predict TTS onset. Rather, a logarithmic algorithm, which increased in sound energy as exposure duration decreased, was a better predictor of TTS. Recovery to baseline hearing thresholds was also logarithmic (approximately -1.8 dB/doubling of time) but indicated variability including faster recovery rates after greater shifts and longer recoveries necessary after longer duration exposures. The data reflected the complexity of TTS in mammals that should be taken into account when predicting odontocete TTS.

  3. The duration of postoperative acute kidney injury is an additional parameter predicting long-term survival in diabetic veterans

    PubMed Central

    Coca, Steven G.; King, Joseph T.; Rosenthal, Ronnie A.; Perkal, Melissa F.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2011-01-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is primarily defined and staged according to the magnitude of rise in serum creatinine. We sought to determine if another dimension of AKI, duration, adds additional prognostic information above magnitude alone. We prospectively studied 35,302 diabetic patients from 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers undergoing their first non-cardiac surgery between 2000 and 2004. The main outcome was long-term mortality in those that survived the index hospitalization. The exposure, AKI, was stratified by magnitude according to the AKI Network (AKIN) stages (stages 1, 2 and 3), and by duration (short [≤2 days], medium [3-6 days], long [≥ 7 days]). Overall, 17.8% of the patients experienced at least stage 1 AKI or greater after surgery. Both the magnitude and duration of AKI were associated with long-term survival in a dose-dependent manner (p < 0.001 for both). Within each AKIN stage, longer duration of AKI was associated with a graded higher rate of mortality (p < 0.001 for each stratum). However, within each of the categories of AKI duration, the AKIN stage was not associated was mortality. When considered separately in multivariate analyses, both a higher AKIN stage and duration were independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. In conclusion, duration of AKI adds additional information to predict long-term mortality in patients with AKI. PMID:20686452

  4. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  5. Born knowing: tentacled snakes innately predict future prey behavior.

    PubMed

    Catania, Kenneth C

    2010-06-16

    Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale--over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive.

  6. Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Catania, Kenneth C.

    2010-01-01

    Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

  7. Habitual sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk using the pooled cohort risk equations among US adults.

    PubMed

    Ford, Earl S

    2014-12-02

    The association between sleep duration and predicted cardiovascular risk has been poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between self-reported sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk among US adults. Data from 7690 men and nonpregnant women who were aged 40 to 79 years, who were free of self-reported heart disease and stroke, and who participated in a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2012 were analyzed. Sleep duration was self-reported. Predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the pooled cohort equations. Among the included participants, 13.1% reported sleeping ≤5 hours, 24.4% reported sleeping 6 hours, 31.9% reported sleeping 7 hours, 25.2% reported sleeping 8 hours, 4.0% reported sleeping 9 hours, and 1.3% reported sleeping ≥10 hours. After adjustment for covariates, geometric mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was 4.0%, 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.7%, and 3.7% among participants who reported sleeping ≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and ≥10 hours per night, respectively (PWald chi-square<0.001). The age-adjusted percentages of predicted cardiovascular risk ≥20% for the 6 intervals of sleep duration were 14.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, 11.4%, 11.8%, and 16.3% (PWald chi-square=0.022). After maximal adjustment, however, sleep duration was not significantly associated with cardiovascular risk ≥20% (PWald chi-square=0.698). Mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was lowest among adults who reported sleeping 7 hours per night and increased as participants reported sleeping fewer and more hours. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  8. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    SciTech Connect

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  9. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    DOE PAGES

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

  10. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  11. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  12. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  13. Factors predicting the duration of adrenal insufficiency in patients successfully treated for Cushing disease and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome.

    PubMed

    Prete, Alessandro; Paragliola, Rosa Maria; Bottiglieri, Filomena; Rota, Carlo Antonio; Pontecorvi, Alfredo; Salvatori, Roberto; Corsello, Salvatore Maria

    2017-03-01

    Successful treatment of Cushing syndrome causes transient or permanent adrenal insufficiency deriving from endogenous hypercortisolism-induced hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression. We analyzed pre-treatment factors potentially affecting the duration of adrenal insufficiency. We conducted a retrospective analysis on patients successfully treated for Cushing disease (15 patients) who underwent transsphenoidal surgery, and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (31 patients) who underwent unilateral adrenalectomy, divided into patients with overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (14 patients) and subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (17 patients). Epidemiological data, medical history, and hormonal parameters depending on the etiology of hypercortisolism were collected and compared to the duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of follow-up after surgery for Cushing disease and primary adrenal Cushing syndrome was 70 and 48 months, respectively. In the Cushing disease group, the median duration of adrenal insufficiency after transsphenoidal surgery was 15 months: younger age at diagnosis and longer duration of signs and symptoms of hypercortisolism before diagnosis and surgery were associated with longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of adrenal insufficiency was 6 months for subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome and 18.5 months for overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome. The biochemical severity of hypercortisolism, the grade of hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression, and treatment with ketoconazole before surgery accounted for longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. In patients with Cushing disease, younger age and delayed diagnosis and treatment predict longer need for glucocorticoid replacement therapy after successful transsphenoidal surgery. In patients with primary adrenal Cushing syndrome, the severity of hypercortisolism plays a primary role in influencing the duration of

  14. Evolving networks-Using past structure to predict the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Ke-ke; Yan, Wei-sheng; Small, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies on link prediction have focused on using common neighbors to predict the existence of links between pairs of nodes. More broadly, research into the structural properties of evolving temporal networks and temporal link prediction methods have recently attracted increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, we examine the use of links between a pair of nodes to predict their common neighbors and analyze the relationship between the weight and the structure in static networks, evolving networks, and in the corresponding randomized networks. We propose both new unweighted and weighted prediction methods and use six kinds of real networks to test our algorithms. In unweighted networks, we find that if a pair of nodes connect to each other in the current network, they will have a higher probability to connect common nodes both in the current and the future networks-and the probability will decrease with the increase of the number of neighbors. Furthermore, we find that the original networks have their particular structure and statistical characteristics which benefit link prediction. In weighted networks, the prediction algorithm performance of networks which are dominated by human factors decrease with the decrease of weight and are in general better in static networks. Furthermore, we find that geographical position and link weight both have significant influence on the transport network. Moreover, the evolving financial network has the lowest predictability. In addition, we find that the structure of non-social networks has more robustness than social networks. The structure of engineering networks has both best predictability and also robustness.

  15. Changing word usage predicts changing word durations in New Zealand English.

    PubMed

    Sóskuthy, Márton; Hay, Jennifer

    2017-09-01

    This paper investigates the emergence of lexicalized effects of word usage on word duration by looking at parallel changes in usage and duration over 130years in New Zealand English. Previous research has found that frequent words are shorter, informative words are longer, and words in utterance-final position are also longer. It has also been argued that some of these patterns are not simply online adjustments, but are incorporated into lexical representations. While these studies tend to focus on the synchronic aspects of such patterns, our corpus shows that word-usage patterns and word durations are not static over time. Many words change in duration and also change with respect to frequency, informativity and likelihood of occurring utterance-finally. Analysis of changing word durations over this time period shows substantial patterns of co-adaptation between word usage and word durations. Words that are increasing in frequency are becoming shorter. Words that are increasing/decreasing in informativity show a change in the same direction in duration (e.g. increasing informativity is associated with increasing duration). And words that are increasingly appearing utterance-finally are lengthening. These effects exist independently of the local effects of the predictors. For example, words that are increasing utterance-finally lengthen in all positions, including utterance-medially. We show that these results are compatible with a number of different views about lexical representations, but they cannot be explained without reference to a production-perception loop that allows speakers to update their representations dynamically on the basis of their experience. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

    2012-01-01

    Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

  17. Advancing the Oxygen Generation Assembly Design to Increase Reliability and Reduce Costs for a Future Long Duration Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takada, Kevin C.; Ghariani, Ahmed E.; Van Keuren,

    2015-01-01

    The state-of-the-art Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) has been reliably producing breathing oxygen for the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) for over eight years. Lessons learned from operating the ISS OGA have led to proposing incremental improvements to advance the baseline design for use in a future long duration mission. These improvements are intended to reduce system weight, crew maintenance time and resupply mass from Earth while increasing reliability. The proposed improvements include replacing the cell stack membrane material, deleting the nitrogen purge equipment, replacing the hydrogen sensors, deleting the wastewater interface, replacing the hydrogen dome and redesigning the cell stack power supply. The development work to date will be discussed and forward work will be outlined. Additionally, a redesigned system architecture will be proposed.

  18. Short sleep duration predicts risk of metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Xi, Bo; He, Dan; Zhang, Min; Xue, Jian; Zhou, Donghao

    2014-08-01

    Sleep duration has been suggested to play a key role in the development of metabolic syndrome (MS). However, the results have been inconsistent. The objective of this study was to clarify the association between sleep duration and MS risk. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible publications. Pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated using random- or fixed-model. A total of 12 studies (18,720 MS cases and 70,833 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. Short sleep duration was significantly associated with increased risk of MS (OR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.09-1.47, p = 0.002). Long sleep duration was not associated with increased risk of MS (OR = 1.07, 95%CI = 0.87-1.32, p = 0.535). Similar results were found in both men and women. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results and no publication bias was detected. The present meta-analysis suggests that short rather than long sleep duration is significantly associated with risk of MS. Large-scale well-design prospective studies are required to further investigate the association between sleep duration and MS risk.

  19. Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

    PubMed

    Miller, Clifford

    2014-12-01

    Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Does sleep duration predict metabolic risk in obese adolescents attending tertiary services? A cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Sung, Valerie; Beebe, Dean W; Vandyke, Rhonda; Fenchel, Matthew C; Crimmins, Nancy A; Kirk, Shelley; Hiscock, Harriet; Amin, Raouf; Wake, Melissa

    2011-07-01

    To determine, in a clinical sample of obese adolescents, whether shorter sleep duration is associated with metabolic risk and obesity severity. Cross-sectional study. Tertiary care weight-management clinic in Cincinnati, OH, USA. 133 obese adolescents aged 10-16.9 years. N/A. Multifaceted sleep duration data were examined with fasting venipuncture and anthropometric data collected during clinical care. presence of metabolic syndrome. waist circumference, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and body mass index (BMI). Sleep duration by (1) parent-report, (2) self-report, and (3) multi-night actigraphy. Relationships between sleep duration and each outcome were examined via regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. Regardless of how measured, sleep duration showed no strong association with metabolic syndrome (OR 1.1 to 1.5, P = 0.2 to 0.8), BMI (β -0.03 to -0.01, P = 0.2 to 0.8), or most other outcomes. Lower triglycerides were predicted by shorter sleep duration by self-report (β 12.3, P = 0.01) and actigraphy (β 13.6, P = 0.03), and shorter parent-reported sleep duration was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (β = -2.7, P = 0.002). Contrary to expectations, sleep duration was not associated with metabolic outcomes, and showed limited associations with lipid profiles. Although inadequate sleep may affect other areas of functioning, it appears premature to expect that lengthening sleep will improve BMI or metabolic outcomes in clinical samples of obese adolescents.

  1. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematical performance among children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Green, Chloe T; Bunge, Silvia A; Briones Chiongbian, Victoria; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21years across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's previous cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; age, vocabulary, and spatial skills were not significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary school and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems.

  2. Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

  3. Phylogeny Predicts Future Habitat Shifts Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. Methodology We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Conclusions Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8–77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change. PMID:24892737

  4. Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Ana M M; Mellin, Camille; Fordham, Damien A; Meekan, Mark G; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2014-03-01

    The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc  = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species.

  5. Duration of recognized fever in febrile seizure predicts later development of epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Kanemura, Hideaki; Sano, Fumikazu; Mizorogi, Sonoko; Aoyagi, Kakuro; Sugita, Kanji; Aihara, Masao

    2012-08-01

    The current report examines the risk of and predictors for developing epilepsy in children with febrile seizure (FS). The present study addresses two factors that were previously identified as predictors of recurrent FS in previous reports: maximum temperature and duration of fever prior to the initial FS. Children aged 6 months-6 years with an initial simple FS were eligible for the study. The interview included questions about the child's illness, family history of seizures, and other exposure information. In particular, they were asked about the duration of recognized fever prior to the seizure. After the initial interview, parents were called every 3-4 months to ascertain whether any further seizures had occurred and the circumstances under which such seizures occurred. Follow up ≥ 3 years was attempted for all children. Statistical analysis was done with χ(2) test, Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney U-tests and logistic regression analysis. Five of 92 children (5.4%) experienced unprovoked seizures and were considered part of an epilepsy group. In four of these five patients, the duration of recognized fever prior to FS fell more than ± 2.5 SD outside the distribution for the non-epilepsy group. Either an unusually short or long recognized fever prior to the initial FS was associated with an increased risk of unprovoked seizures. The duration of recognized fever appears to provide useful information about the risk for the later development of epilepsy. © 2012 The Authors. Pediatrics International © 2012 Japan Pediatric Society.

  6. Neural pattern change during encoding of a narrative predicts retrospective duration estimates

    PubMed Central

    Lositsky, Olga; Chen, Janice; Toker, Daniel; Honey, Christopher J; Shvartsman, Michael; Poppenk, Jordan L; Hasson, Uri; Norman, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    What mechanisms support our ability to estimate durations on the order of minutes? Behavioral studies in humans have shown that changes in contextual features lead to overestimation of past durations. Based on evidence that the medial temporal lobes and prefrontal cortex represent contextual features, we related the degree of fMRI pattern change in these regions with people’s subsequent duration estimates. After listening to a radio story in the scanner, participants were asked how much time had elapsed between pairs of clips from the story. Our ROI analyses found that duration estimates were correlated with the neural pattern distance between two clips at encoding in the right entorhinal cortex. Moreover, whole-brain searchlight analyses revealed a cluster spanning the right anterior temporal lobe. Our findings provide convergent support for the hypothesis that retrospective time judgments are driven by 'drift' in contextual representations supported by these regions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16070.001 PMID:27801645

  7. Tryptophan Predicts the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Tianlu; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Ni, Yan; Hu, Cheng; Rajani, Cynthia; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Recently, 5 amino acids were identified and verified as important metabolites highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. This report aims to assess the association of tryptophan with the development of T2D and to evaluate its performance with existing amino acid markers. A total of 213 participants selected from a ten-year longitudinal Shanghai Diabetes Study (SHDS) were examined in two ways: 1) 51 subjects who developed diabetes and 162 individuals who remained metabolically healthy in 10 years; 2) the same 51 future diabetes and 23 strictly matched ones selected from the 162 healthy individuals. Baseline fasting serum tryptophan concentrations were quantitatively measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry. First, serum tryptophan level was found significantly higher in future T2D and was positively and independently associated with diabetes onset risk. Patients with higher tryptophan level tended to present higher degree of insulin resistance and secretion, triglyceride and blood pressure. Second, the prediction potential of tryptophan is non-inferior to the 5 existing amino acids. The predictive performance of the combined score improved after taking tryptophan into account. Our findings unveiled the potential of tryptophan as a new marker associated with diabetes risk in Chinese populations. The addition of tryptophan provided complementary value to the existing amino acid predictors. PMID:27598004

  8. Predicting future asthma morbidity in preschool inner-city children.

    PubMed

    Hansel, Nadia N; Matsui, Elizabeth C; Rusher, Robert; McCormack, Meredith C; Curtin-Brosnan, Jean; Peng, Roger D; Mazique, Derek; Breysse, Patrick N; Diette, Gregory B

    2011-10-01

    Children living in the inner city are particularly vulnerable to asthma. While we know much about factors that affect near-term outcomes in inner-city children, there is little evidence to guide clinicians on what to expect in the coming years, especially in preschool children. The purpose of our study was to determine which clinical and environmental factors are predictive of poor long-term asthma control in preschool inner-city children. Baseline characteristics determined to be potential predictors of asthma severity were examined: demographics, asthma symptoms, medication use, healthcare utilization, early life medical history, family history, allergen exposure and allergic disease, and pollutant exposure. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression to examine the association of predictors of asthma severity with healthcare utilization at 2 years. Of the 150 children at baseline, the follow-up rate was 83% at 2 years; therefore, 124 children were included in final analyses. At baseline, the mean age was 4.4 years and participants were predominantly African-American (90%). Most of the children were atopic and 32.5% reported using inhaled corticosteroids. Nighttime awakening from asthma and a history of pneumonia were predictive of future poor control. Preschool children with nighttime awakening from asthma and a history of pneumonia may deserve closer monitoring to prevent future asthma morbidity.

  9. Using unknown knowns to predict coastal response to future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Lentz, E. E.; Gutierrez, B.; Thieler, E. R.; Passeri, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal zone, including its bathymetry, topography, ecosystem, and communities, depends on and responds to a wide array of natural and engineered processes associated with climate variability. Climate affects the frequency of coastal storms, which are only resolved probabilistically for future conditions, as well as setting the pace for persistent processes (e.g., waves driving daily alongshore transport; beach nourishment). It is not clear whether persistent processes or extreme events contribute most to the integrated evolution of the coast. Yet, observations of coastal change record the integration of persistent and extreme processes. When these observations span a large spatial domain and/or temporal range they may reflect a wide range of forcing and boundary conditions that include different levels of sea-level rise, storminess, sediment input, engineering activities, and elevation distributions. We have been using a statistical approach to characterize the interrelationships between oceanographic, ecological, and geomorphic processes—including the role played by human activities via coastal protection, beach nourishment, and other forms of coastal management. The statistical approach, Bayesian networks, incorporates existing information to establish underlying prior expectations for the distributions and inter-correlations of variables most relevant to coastal geomorphic evolution. This underlying information can then be used to make predictions. We demonstrate several examples of the utility of this approach using data as constraints and then propagating the constraints and uncertainty to make predictions of unobserved variables that include changes in shorelines, dunes, and overwash deposits. We draw on data from the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States, resolving time scales of years to a century. The examples include both short-term storm impacts and long-term evolution associated with sea-level rise. We show that the Bayesian network can

  10. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

  11. Identifying future scientists: predicting persistence into research training.

    PubMed

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8-12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers.

  12. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, Jing; Mahmassani, Hani S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  13. Prolonged sleep duration as a marker of early neurodegeneration predicting incident dementia.

    PubMed

    Westwood, Andrew J; Beiser, Alexa; Jain, Nikita; Himali, Jayandra J; DeCarli, Charles; Auerbach, Sanford H; Pase, Matthew P; Seshadri, Sudha

    2017-03-21

    To evaluate the association between sleep duration and the risk of incident dementia and brain aging. Self-reported total hours of sleep were examined in the Framingham Heart Study (n = 2,457, mean age 72 ± 6 years, 57% women) as a 3-level variable: <6 hours (short), 6-9 hours (reference), and >9 hours (long), and was related to the risk of incident dementia over 10 years, and cross-sectionally to total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and cognitive performance. We observed 234 cases of all-cause dementia over 10 years of follow-up. In multivariable analyses, prolonged sleep duration was associated with an increased risk of incident dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 2.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-3.26). These findings were driven by persons with baseline mild cognitive impairment (HR 2.83; 95% CI 1.06-7.55) and persons without a high school degree (HR 6.05; 95% CI 3.00-12.18). Transitioning to sleeping >9 hours over a mean period of 13 years before baseline was associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia (HR 2.43; 95% CI 1.44-4.11) and clinical Alzheimer disease (HR 2.20; 95% CI 1.17-4.13). Relative to sleeping 6-9 hours, long sleep duration was also associated cross-sectionally with smaller TCBV (β ± SE, -1.08 ± 0.41 mean units of TCBV difference) and poorer executive function (β ± SE, -0.41 ± 0.13 SD units of Trail Making Test B minus A score difference). Prolonged sleep duration may be a marker of early neurodegeneration and hence a useful clinical tool to identify those at a higher risk of progressing to clinical dementia within 10 years. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  14. Prediction of Quality of life by Self-Efficacy, Pain Intensity and Pain Duration in Patient with Pain Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Yazdi-Ravandi, Saeid; Taslimi, Zahra; Jamshidian, Narges; Saberi, Hayede; Shams, Jamal; Haghparast, Abbas

    2013-01-01

    The quality of life (QOL) has been defined as “a person's sense of well-being that stems from satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the areas of life that are important to him/her”. It is generally accepted that pain intensity and duration have a negative impact on the QOL. One specific type of control is “self-efficacy”, or the belief that one has the ability to successfully engage in specific actions. The ability to adapt to pain may play an important role in maintaining the QOL. In this study, we investigated the role of self-efficacy, pain intensity, and pain duration in various domains of quality of life such as physical, psychological, social and environmental domains. In this study, 290 adult patients (146 men, 144 women) completed coping self-efficacy and the WHOQOL-BREF Questionnaire. Moreover, we illustrated numerical rating scale for pain intensity. The results were analyzed using SPSS version of 19.0 and means, descriptive correlation, and regression were calculated. Our data revealed that self-efficacy but not the pain duration could significantly anticipate the QOL and its four related domains (P<0.001). In addition, it is noticeable that the effect of self-efficacy on the prediction of QOL is much more obvious in the psychological domain. However, the pain intensity could predict all of the QOL domains (P<0.001) except social and environmental ones. In conclusion, to predict the quality of life (QOL) in person suffering from chronic pain, self-efficacy and pain intensity are more important factors than the pain duration and demographic variables. PMID:25337337

  15. Differences in Motor Imagery Time when Predicting Task Duration in Alpine Skiers and Equestrian Riders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Louis, Magali; Collet, Christian; Champely, Stephane; Guillot, Aymeric

    2012-01-01

    Athletes' ability to use motor imagery (MI) to predict the speed at which they could perform a motor sequence has received little attention. In this study, 21 alpine skiers and 16 equestrian riders performed MI based on a prediction of actual performance time (a) after the course inspection, (b) before the start, and (c) after the actual…

  16. Differences in Motor Imagery Time when Predicting Task Duration in Alpine Skiers and Equestrian Riders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Louis, Magali; Collet, Christian; Champely, Stephane; Guillot, Aymeric

    2012-01-01

    Athletes' ability to use motor imagery (MI) to predict the speed at which they could perform a motor sequence has received little attention. In this study, 21 alpine skiers and 16 equestrian riders performed MI based on a prediction of actual performance time (a) after the course inspection, (b) before the start, and (c) after the actual…

  17. Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

    PubMed

    Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

    2014-01-01

    A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

  18. Developing neuronal networks: self-organized criticality predicts the future.

    PubMed

    Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

    2013-01-01

    Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and "aging" process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

  19. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.

    2009-12-01

    As computers get faster and our understanding of the climate system improves, climate models to predict the future are getting more complex by including more and more processes, and they are run at higher and higher resolution to resolve more of the small scale processes. As a result, some of the simulated features and structures, e.g. ocean eddies or tropical cyclones look surprisingly real. But are these deceptive? A pattern can look perfectly real but be in the wrong place. So can the current global models really provide the kind of information on local scales and on the quantities (e.g. extreme events) that the decision maker would need to know to invest for example in adaptation? A closer look indicates that evaluating skill of climate models and quantifying uncertainties in predictions is very difficult. This presentation shows that while models are improving in simulating the climate features we observe (e.g. the present day mean state, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation), the spread from multiple models in predicting future changes is often not decreasing. The main problem is that (unlike with weather forecasts for example) we cannot evaluate the model on a prediction (for example for the year 2100) and we have to use the present, or past changes as metrics of skills. But there are infinite ways of testing a model, and many metrics used to test models do not clearly relate to the prediction. Therefore there is little agreement in the community on metrics to separate ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models, and there is a concern that model development, evaluation and posterior weighting or ranking of models are all using the same datasets. While models are continuously improving in representing what we believe to be the key processes, many models also share ideas, parameterizations or even pieces of model code. The current models can therefore not be considered independent. Robustness of a model simulated result is often interpreted as increasing the confidence

  20. Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

    PubMed

    Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

    2016-04-12

    A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model.

  1. Prediction of impact force and duration during low velocity impact on circular composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivakumar, K. N.; Elber, W.; Illg, W.

    1983-01-01

    Two simple and improved models--energy-balance and spring-mass--were developed to calculate impact force and duration during low velocity impact of circular composite plates. Both models include the contact deformation of the plate and the impactor as well as bending, transverse shear, and membrane deformations of the plate. The plate was transversely isotropic graphite/epoxy composite laminate and the impactor was a steel sphere. Calculated impact forces from the two analyses agreed with each other. The analyses were verified by comparing the results with reported test data.

  2. QRS duration and dispersion for predicting ventricular arrhythmias in early stage of acute myocardial infraction.

    PubMed

    Chávez-González, E; Rodríguez Jiménez, A E; Moreno-Martínez, F L

    To determine the relationship between QRS duration and dispersion and the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias in early stages of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). A retrospective, longitudinal descriptive study was carried out. Hospital General Universitario "Camilo Cienfuegos", Sancti Spíritus, Cuba. Secondary health care. A total of 209 patients diagnosed with ST-segment elevation AMI from January 2012 to June 2014. The duration and dispersion of the QT interval, corrected QT interval, and QRS complex were measured in the first electrocardiogram performed at the hospital. The presence of ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation was assessed during follow-up (length of hospital stay). Arrhythmias were found in 46 patients (22%); in 25 of them (15.9%), arrhythmias originated in ventricles, and were more common in those subjects with extensive anterior wall AMI, which was responsible for 81.8% of the ventricular fibrillations and more than half (57.1%) of the ventricular tachycardias. The widest QRS complexes (77.3±13.3 vs. 71.5±6.4ms; P=.029) and their greatest dispersion (24.1±16.2 vs. 16.5±4.8ms; P=.019) were found on those leads that explore the regions affected by ischemia. The highest values of all measurements were found in extensive anterior wall AMI, with significant differences: QRS 92.3±18.8ms, QRS dispersion 37.9±23.9ms, corrected QT 518.5±72.2ms, and corrected QT interval dispersion 94.9±26.8ms. Patients with higher QRS dispersion values were more likely to have ventricular arrhythmias, with cutoff points at 23.5ms and 24.5ms for tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation, respectively. Increased QRS duration and dispersion implied a greater likelihood of ventricular arrhythmias in early stages of AMI than increased duration and dispersion of the corrected QT interval. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  3. High C-Reactive Protein Predicts Delirium Incidence, Duration, and Feature Severity After Major Noncardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Vasunilashorn, Sarinnapha M; Dillon, Simon T; Inouye, Sharon K; Ngo, Long H; Fong, Tamara G; Jones, Richard N; Travison, Thomas G; Schmitt, Eva M; Alsop, David C; Freedman, Steven D; Arnold, Steven E; Metzger, Eran D; Libermann, Towia A; Marcantonio, Edward R

    2017-08-01

    To examine associations between the inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP) measured preoperatively and on postoperative day 2 (POD2) and delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity. Prospective cohort study. Two academic medical centers. Adults aged 70 and older undergoing major noncardiac surgery (N = 560). Plasma CRP was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Delirium was assessed from Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) interviews and chart review. Delirium duration was measured according to number of hospital days with delirium. Delirium feature severity was defined as the sum of CAM-Severity (CAM-S) scores on all postoperative hospital days. Generalized linear models were used to examine independent associations between CRP (preoperatively and POD2 separately) and delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity; prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS, >5 days); and discharge disposition. Postoperative delirium occurred in 24% of participants, 12% had 2 or more delirium days, and the mean ± standard deviation sum CAM-S was 9.3 ± 11.4. After adjusting for age, sex, surgery type, anesthesia route, medical comorbidities, and postoperative infectious complications, participants with preoperative CRP of 3 mg/L or greater had a risk of delirium that was 1.5 times as great (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-2.1) as that of those with CRP less than 3 mg/L, 0.4 more delirium days (P < .001), more-severe delirium (3.6 CAM-S points higher, P < .001), and a risk of prolonged LOS that was 1.4 times as great (95% CI = 1.1-1.8). Using POD2 CRP, participants in the highest quartile (≥235.73 mg/L) were 1.5 times as likely to develop delirium (95% CI = 1.0-2.4) as those in the lowest quartile (≤127.53 mg/L), had 0.2 more delirium days (P < .05), and had more severe delirium (4.5 CAM-S points higher, P < .001). High preoperative and POD2 CRP were independently associated with delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity. CRP may be useful to

  4. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

    PubMed

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

  5. Through a glass darkly: predicting the future of radiation oncology.

    PubMed

    Peters, L J

    1995-01-15

    To position ourselves professionally for the inevitable transition to managed care demands serious self-appraisal. Like most procedural medical specialties, radiation oncology is currently ill prepared for a capitated system of payment. To prosper under capitation, we need to increase the utility of radiation therapy per unit cost. This can be achieved by making the following adaptive responses: (a) we must ensure that the needs of medical practice drive the use of costly technology and not vice versa; (b) we must subordinate firmly held beliefs and prejudices to solid scientific data and be prepared to modify our practice when more cost-effective alternative exist; and (c) we must be increasingly conscious of outcome, not process, in deciding among treatment options; and (d) we must acknowledge the need to prioritize the use of finite resources so that the maximum effort is expended on those who have the most to gain from treatment. These changes will permit us to develop guidelines for appropriate use of radiation therapy, and to demonstrate the excellent value of the service we can provide, which is the ultimate key to success. Though the future may at times seem bleak, we can shape it with our actions: the best way to predict the future is to create it.

  6. Short sleep duration is associated with risk of future diabetes but not cardiovascular disease: a prospective study and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Holliday, Elizabeth G; Magee, Christopher A; Kritharides, Leonard; Banks, Emily; Attia, John

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies have observed association between short sleep duration and both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes, although these results may reflect confounding by pre-existing illness. This study aimed to determine whether short sleep duration predicts future CVD or type 2 diabetes after accounting for baseline health. Baseline data for 241,949 adults were collected through the 45 and Up Study, an Australian prospective cohort study, with health outcomes identified via electronic database linkage. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals. Compared to 7h sleep, <6h sleep was associated with incident CVD in participants reporting ill-health at baseline (HR=1.38 [95% CI: 1.12-1.70]), but not after excluding those with baseline illness and adjusting for baseline health status (1.03 [0.88-1.21]). In contrast, the risk of incident type 2 diabetes was significantly increased in those with <6h versus 7h sleep, even after excluding those with baseline illness and adjusting for baseline health (HR=1.29 [1.08-1.53], P=0.004). This suggests the association is valid and does not simply reflect confounding or reverse causation. Meta-analysis of ten prospective studies including 447,124 participants also confirmed an association between short sleep and incident diabetes (1.33 [1.20-1.48]). Obtaining less than 6 hours of sleep each night (compared to 7 hours) may increase type 2 diabetes risk by approximately 30%.

  7. Risk factors for predicting diarrheal duration and morbidity in children with acute diarrhea.

    PubMed

    Patel, Archana B; Ovung, Ronithung; Badhoniya, Neetu B; Dibley, Michael J

    2012-04-01

    To identify baseline risk factors for prolonged diarrheal duration and subsequent complications in children aged 6 to 59 mo with acute diarrhea who participated in a micronutrient clinical trial in a tertiary care hospital. The adjusted odds ratio or incidence risk ratios (IRR) of the baseline variables for prolongation of diarrheal duration (cox proportional hazard model), diarrhea >7 d (multiple logistic regressions), severe dehydration experienced after hospitalization (poisson regression models) was estimated. Fever (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19, p = 0.02), dehydration (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.59, p = 0.003), dysentery (OR 1.41 95% CI 1.09-1.82, p = 0.008), those who received medications (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.39, p = 0.02), and weight for age Z-score ≤2 (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.46, p = 0.004) were at a greater risk of prolonged diarrhea. Diarrhea >7 d was associated with younger age (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14, p = 0.003), female child (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.19-4.55, p = 0.013), diarrheal duration before enrolment (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09, p < 0.001), fever (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.23-2.49, p = 0.002) and the weight for age Z-score ≤2 (OR 4.32, 95% CI 2.03-9.16, p < 0.001). Severe dehydration after hospitalization was associated with dehydration at baseline (OR 6.7, 95% CI 2-3.0, p < 0.001), incomplete immunization (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.5-7.69, p < 0.001), failure to receive any medication(OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.26-7.14, p = 0.01). Few studies assess risk factors for diarrheal morbidity prospectively. The present study showed that children of acute diarrhea with above risk factors need stricter monitoring for complications to reduce diarrheal mortality.

  8. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade

    PubMed Central

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P.; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J. R.; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C. Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments. PMID:24196518

  9. Does psychophysiological predictive anticipatory activity predict real or future probable events?

    PubMed

    Tressoldi, Patrizio E; Martinelli, Massimiliano; Semenzato, Luca; Gonella, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    The possibility of predicting random future events before any sensory clues by using human physiology as a dependent variable has been supported by the meta-analysis of Moss-bridge et al. (2012)(1) and recent findings by Tressoldi et al. (2011 and 2013)(2,3) and Mossbridge et al. (2014)(4) defined this phenomenon predictive anticipatory activity (PAA). From a theoretical point of view, one interesting question is whether PAA is related to the effective, real future presentation of these stimuli or whether it is related only to the probability of their presentation. This hypothesis was tested with four experiments, two using heart rate and two using pupil dilation as dependent variables. In all four experiments, both a neutral stimulus and a potentially threatening stimulus were predicted 7-10% above chance, independently from whether the predicted threatening stimulus was presented or not. These findings are discussed with reference to the "grandfather paradox," and some candidate explanations for this phenomena are presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Ensemble predictions of future streamflow drought in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Rojas, Rodrigo

    2013-04-01

    Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming and growing human water use are likely to favor conditions for the development of streamflow droughts in several parts of Europe by the end of this century. In this study, we quantify how future drought hazard in Europe may develop in view of these drivers by comparing low-flow predictions of the LISFLOOD hydrological model coupled to a water consumption module and driven by an ensemble of climate projections. This ensemble consists of 12 bias-corrected climate simulations conducted within the ENSEMBLES project, forced by the A1B emission scenario for the period 1961-2100. For time slices of 30 years, low-flow characteristics - quantified in terms of minimum flows, environmental flows and deficits - are derived from the simulated streamflow series and further analyzed using extreme value theory. Changes in extreme river conditions are then analyzed with respect to the 1961-1990 control period. Two main domains with opposite signal of change in drought characteristics can be identified in Europe, as well as a transition zone between them. Southern parts of Europe - from the Iberian to Balkan Peninsula- but also France, Belgium and British Isles are expected to be more prone to severe and persistent low-flow conditions. In contrast, the Scandinavia Peninsula and Northeast Europe show a robust decrease in future drought hazard. In a transition zone between these two regions, climate-induced changes are projected to be marginal. Water use under an A1B-consistent scenario will further aggravate drought conditions in the south as well as in the transition zone. In the regions with a clear pattern of change in streamflow drought, indices derived from the hydrological simulations for different climate experiments are highly consistent, whereas in the transition zone between North and South Europe the consistency in changes amongst the ensemble members is lower.

  11. State of the art: duration of dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary stent implantation - past, present and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Gargiulo, Giuseppe; Valgimigli, Marco; Capodanno, Davide; Bittl, John A

    2017-08-25

    Evidence from studies published more than 10 years ago suggested that patients receiving first-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) needed dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) for at least 12 months. Current evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCT) reported within the past five years suggests that patients with stable ischaemic heart disease who receive newer-generation DES need DAPT for a minimum of three to six months. Patients who undergo stenting for an acute coronary syndrome benefit from DAPT for at least 12 months, but a Bayesian network meta-analysis confirms that extending DAPT beyond 12 months confers a trade-off between reduced ischaemic events and increased bleeding. However, the network meta-analysis finds no credible increase in all-cause mortality if DAPT is lengthened from three to six months to 12 months (posterior median odds ratio [OR] 0.98; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 0.73-1.43), from 12 months to 18-48 months (OR 0.87; 95% BCI: 0.64-1.17), or from three to six months to 18-48 months (OR 0.86; 95% BCI: 0.63-1.21). Future investigation should focus on identifying scoring systems that have excellent discrimination and calibration. Although predictive models should be incorporated into systems of care, most decisions about DAPT duration will be based on clinical judgement and patient preference.

  12. Broadly applicable risk stratification system for predicting duration of hospitalization and mortality.

    PubMed

    Sessler, Daniel I; Sigl, Jeffrey C; Manberg, Paul J; Kelley, Scott D; Schubert, Armin; Chamoun, Nassib G

    2010-11-01

    Hospitals are increasingly required to publicly report outcomes, yet performance is best interpreted in the context of population and procedural risk. We sought to develop a risk-adjustment method using administrative claims data to assess both national-level and hospital-specific performance. A total of 35,179,507 patient stay records from 2001-2006 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) files were randomly divided into development and validation sets. Risk stratification indices (RSIs) for length of stay and mortality endpoints were derived from aggregate risk associated with individual diagnostic and procedure codes. Performance of RSIs were tested prospectively on the validation database, as well as a single institution registry of 103,324 adult surgical patients, and compared with the Charlson comorbidity index, which was designed to predict 1-yr mortality. The primary outcome was the C statistic indicating the discriminatory power of alternative risk-adjustment methods for prediction of outcome measures. A single risk-stratification model predicted 30-day and 1-yr postdischarge mortality; separate risk-stratification models predicted length of stay and in-hospital mortality. The RSIs performed well on the national dataset (C statistics for median length of stay and 30-day mortality were 0.86 and 0.84). They performed significantly better than the Charlson comorbidity index on the Cleveland Clinic registry for all outcomes. The C statistics for the RSIs and Charlson comorbidity index were 0.89 versus 0.60 for median length of stay, 0.98 versus 0.65 for in-hospital mortality, 0.85 versus 0.76 for 30-day mortality, and 0.83 versus 0.77 for 1-yr mortality. Addition of demographic information only slightly improved performance of the RSI. RSI is a broadly applicable and robust system for assessing hospital length of stay and mortality for groups of surgical patients based solely on administrative data.

  13. Mucosal host immune response predicts the severity and duration of herpes simplex virus-2 genital tract shedding episodes

    PubMed Central

    Schiffer, Joshua T.; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Mark, Karen E.; Zhu, Jia; Selke, Stacy; Koelle, David M.; Wald, Anna; Corey, Lawrence

    2010-01-01

    Herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) shedding episodes in humans vary markedly in duration and virologic titer within an infected person over time, an observation that is unexplained. To evaluate whether host or virological factors more closely accounted for this variability, we combined measures of viral replication and CD8+ lymphocyte density in genital biopsies, with a stochastic mathematical model of HSV-2 infection. Model simulations reproduced quantities of virus and duration of shedding detected in 1,003 episodes among 386 persons. In the simulations, local CD8+ lymphocyte density in the mucosa at episode onset predicted peak HSV DNA copy number and whether genital lesions or subclinical shedding occurred. High density of CD8+ T cells in the mucosa correlated with decreased infected cell lifespan and fewer infected epithelial cells before episode clearance. If infected cell lifespan increased by 15 min because of CD8+ lymphocyte decay, then there was potential for a thousandfold increase in the number of infected cells. The model suggests that the rate of containment of infected cells by the peripheral mucosal immune system is the major driver of duration and severity of HSV-2 reactivation in the immunocompetent host. PMID:20956313

  14. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

    2005-05-01

    forecast information: (1) the Monthly Industrial Meteorology Information Magazine (MIMIM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (2) the Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS), and (3) the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each of these forecasts is issued in a unique format: (1) MIMIM is a most-probable-event forecast, (2) GDAPS is a single series of deterministic forecasts, and (3) NCEP is an ensemble of deterministic forecasts. Other minor issues include how long the initial conditions influences the ESP accuracy, and how many ESP scenarios are needed to obtain the best accuracy. This presentation also addresses some future research that is needed for ESP in Korea.

  15. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

    PubMed

    Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

    2017-09-01

    Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

  16. The critical power function is dependent on the duration of the predictive exercise tests chosen.

    PubMed

    Bishop, D; Jenkins, D G; Howard, A

    1998-02-01

    The linear relationship between work accomplished (W(lim)) and time to exhaustion (t(lim)) can be described by the equation: W(lim) = a + CP x t(lim). Critical power (CP) is the slope of this line and is thought to represent a maximum rate of ATP synthesis without exhaustion, presumably an inherent characteristic of the aerobic energy system. The present investigation determined whether the choice of predictive tests would elicit significant differences in the estimated CP. Ten female physical education students completed, in random order and on consecutive days, five all-out predictive tests at preselected constant-power outputs. Predictive tests were performed on an electrically-braked cycle ergometer and power loadings were individually chosen so as to induce fatigue within approximately 1-10 mins. CP was derived by fitting the linear W(lim)-t(lim) regression and calculated three ways: 1) using the first, third and fifth W(lim)-t(lim) coordinates (I135), 2) using coordinates from the three highest power outputs (I123; mean t(lim) = 68-193 s) and 3) using coordinates from the lowest power outputs (I345; mean t(lim) = 193-485 s). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that CPI123 (201.0+/-37.9W) > CPI135 (176.1+/-27.6W) > CPI345 (164.0+/-22.8W) (P<0.05). When the three sets of data were used to fit the hyperbolic Power-t(lim) regression, statistically significant differences between each CP were also found (P<0.05). The shorter the predictive trials, the greater the slope of the W(lim)-t(lim) regression; possibly because of the greater influence of 'aerobic inertia' on these trials. This may explain why CP has failed to represent a maximal, sustainable work rate. The present findings suggest that if CP is to represent the highest power output that an individual can maintain "for a very long time without fatigue" then CP should be calculated over a range of predictive tests in which the influence of aerobic inertia is minimised.

  17. Learning to predict: Exposure to temporal sequences facilitates prediction of future events

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Rosalind; Dexter, Matthew; Hardwicke, Tom E.; Goldstone, Aimee; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2014-01-01

    Previous experience is thought to facilitate our ability to extract spatial and temporal regularities from cluttered scenes. However, little is known about how we may use this knowledge to predict future events. Here we test whether exposure to temporal sequences facilitates the visual recognition of upcoming stimuli. We presented observers with a sequence of leftwards and rightwards oriented gratings that was interrupted by a test stimulus. Observers were asked to indicate whether the orientation of the test stimulus matched their expectation based on the preceding sequence. Our results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates our ability to predict an upcoming stimulus. In particular, observers’ performance improved following exposure to structured but not random sequences. Improved performance lasted for a prolonged period and generalized to untrained stimulus orientations rather than sequences of different global structure, suggesting that observers acquire knowledge of the sequence structure rather than its items. Further, this learning was compromised when observers performed a dual task resulting in increased attentional load. These findings suggest that exposure to temporal regularities in a scene allows us to accumulate knowledge about its global structure and predict future events. PMID:24231115

  18. New Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Peak Ground Velocity and Duration of Ground Motion for Mining Tremors in Upper Silesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodacki, Jacek

    2016-12-01

    This article presents a method of predicting the peak horizontal velocity of ground motion, PHV, and the duration of vibration, tH, for strong seismic events (E ≥ 5·106 J, ML > 2.5) in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB). For the prediction of PHV, a model proposed by Si and Midorikawa was used. The regression method takes into account the impact of the local geology under seismic stations on the ground motion according to the Eurocode 8 classification. The ground classification was based on the results of a seismic survey conducted near the seismometer stations. This method is of great practical use because it allows the degree of vibration intensity to be determined on the basis of the Mining Seismic Instrumental Intensity Scale MSIIS-15 (acronym GSIGZW in Polish version) at any distance from the epicentre of the seismic events induced or triggered by mining.

  19. Information-bearing acoustic change outperforms duration in predicting intelligibility of full-spectrum and noise-vocoded sentences.

    PubMed

    Stilp, Christian E

    2014-03-01

    Recent research has demonstrated a strong relationship between information-bearing acoustic changes in the speech signal and speech intelligibility. The availability of information-bearing acoustic changes reliably predicts intelligibility of full-spectrum [Stilp and Kluender (2010). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107(27), 12387-12392] and noise-vocoded sentences amid noise interruption [Stilp et al. (2013). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 133(2), EL136-EL141]. However, other research reports that proportion of signal duration preserved also predicts intelligibility of noise-interrupted speech. These factors have only ever been investigated independently, obscuring whether one better explains speech perception. The present experiments manipulated both factors to answer this question. A broad range of sentence durations (160-480 ms) containing high or low information-bearing acoustic changes were replaced by speech-shaped noise in noise-vocoded (Experiment 1) and full-spectrum sentences (Experiment 2). Sentence intelligibility worsened with increasing noise replacement, but in both experiments, information-bearing acoustic change was a statistically superior predictor of performance. Perception relied more heavily on information-bearing acoustic changes in poorer listening conditions (in spectrally degraded sentences and amid increasing noise replacement). Highly linear relationships between measures of information and performance suggest that exploiting information-bearing acoustic change is a shared principle underlying perception of acoustically rich and degraded speech. Results demonstrate the explanatory power of information-theoretic approaches for speech perception.

  20. Prediction and validation of the duration of hemodialysis sessions for the treatment of acute ethylene glycol poisoning.

    PubMed

    Iliuta, Ioan-Andrei; Lachance, Philippe; Ghannoum, Marc; Bégin, Yannick; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2017-08-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) sessions for the treatment of acute ethylene glycol poisoning is dependent on concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. Ethylene glycol assays are not readily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of HD. We report a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD sessions based retrospectively on a cohort study of 26 cases of acute ethylene glycol poisoning in 24 individuals treated by alcohol dehydrogenase competitive inhibitors, cofactors and HD. Two patients required HD for more than 14 days, and two died. In 19 cases, the mean ethylene glycol elimination half-life during high-efficiency HD was 165 minutes (95% confidence interval of 151-180 minutes). In a training set of 12 patients with acute ethylene glycol poisoning, using the 90th percentile half-life (195 minutes) and a target ethylene glycol concentration of 2 mmol/l (12.4 mg/dl) allowed all cases to reach a safe ethylene glycol under 3 mmol/l (18.6 mg/dl). The prediction model was then validated in a set of seven acute ethylene glycol poisonings. Thus, the HD session time in hours can be estimated using 4.7 x (Ln [the initial ethylene glycol concentration (mmol/l)/2]), provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  2. Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

    2013-12-01

    Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

  3. Predictive Low-Glucose Insulin Suspension Reduces Duration of Nocturnal Hypoglycemia in Children Without Increasing Ketosis

    PubMed Central

    Buckingham, Bruce A.; Raghinaru, Dan; Cameron, Fraser; Bequette, B. Wayne; Chase, H. Peter; Maahs, David M.; Slover, Robert; Wadwa, R. Paul; Wilson, Darrell M.; Ly, Trang; Aye, Tandy; Hramiak, Irene; Clarson, Cheril; Stein, Robert; Gallego, Patricia H.; Lum, John; Sibayan, Judy; Kollman, Craig

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Nocturnal hypoglycemia can cause seizures and is a major impediment to tight glycemic control, especially in young children with type 1 diabetes. We conducted an in-home randomized trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a continuous glucose monitor–based overnight predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In two age-groups of children with type 1 diabetes (11–14 and 4–10 years of age), a 42-night trial for each child was conducted wherein each night was assigned randomly to either having the PLGS system active (intervention night) or inactive (control night). The primary outcome was percent time <70 mg/dL overnight. RESULTS Median time at <70 mg/dL was reduced by 54% from 10.1% on control nights to 4.6% on intervention nights (P < 0.001) in 11–14-year-olds (n = 45) and by 50% from 6.2% to 3.1% (P < 0.001) in 4–10-year-olds (n = 36). Mean overnight glucose was lower on control versus intervention nights in both age-groups (144 ± 18 vs. 152 ± 19 mg/dL [P < 0.001] and 153 ± 14 vs. 160 ± 16 mg/dL [P = 0.004], respectively). Mean morning blood glucose was 159 ± 29 vs. 176 ± 28 mg/dL (P < 0.001) in the 11–14-year-olds and 154 ± 25 vs. 158 ± 22 mg/dL (P = 0.11) in the 4–10-year-olds, respectively. No differences were found between intervention and control in either age-group in morning blood ketosis. CONCLUSIONS In 4–14-year-olds, use of a nocturnal PLGS system can substantially reduce overnight hypoglycemia without an increase in morning ketosis, although overnight mean glucose is slightly higher. PMID:26049549

  4. Interglacial Durations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangili, Clara; McManus, Jerry F.; Raynaud, Dominique

    2014-05-01

    In the context of future global warming induced by human activities, it is essential to assess the role of natural climatic variations. Precise knowledge of the duration of past interglacial periods is fundamental to the understanding of the potential future evolution of the Holocene. Past ice age cycles provide a natural laboratory for exploring the progression and duration of interglacial climate. Palaeorecords from ice, land and oceans extend over the last 800 ka, revealing eight glacial-interglacial cycles, with a range of insolation and greenhouse gas influences. The interglacials display a correspondingly large variety of intensity and duration, thus providing an opportunity for major insights into the mechanisms involved in the behaviour of interglacial climates. A comparison of the duration of these interglacials, however, is often difficult, as the definition of an interglacial depends on the archive that is considered. Therefore, to compare interglacial length and climate conditions from different archives, a consistent definition of interglacial conditions is required, ideally one that is not bound to the method nor to the archive under consideration. Here we present a method to identify interglacials and to calculate their length by mean of a simple statistical approach. We based our method on ~ 400 ka windows of time to determine mean climatic conditions while allowing for the possibility of long term evolution of the climatic baseline. For our study of interglacials of the past 800 ka, we used two windows that largely align with the pre- (800-430 ka ago) and post- (430-0 ka ago) mid-Brunhes event (MBE), although the resulting conclusions are not sensitive to this particular division. We applied this method to the last 800 ka of a few palaeoclimate records: the deuterium ice core (EDC) record as a climatic proxy, the benthic δ18O stack (LR04) as a proxy for sea level/ice volume, ice core (Vostok, EDC) atmospheric CO2 and additional records. Although

  5. Predicting the future of the adult nurse practitioner.

    PubMed

    Glynn, P M

    1998-05-01

    In the late 1980s, the future of the adult nurse practitioner (ANP) was less than certain. This study, conducted in 1987, explored the opinions of ANPs, physicians, and healthcare administrators regarding the future of the ANP in 1995. A sociological framework was used to identify factors potentially affecting the ANPs future and to assess the ANP's functionality vis-à-vis the healthcare delivery system. Findings are discussed within the context of the healthcare delivery system as it emerged by 1995, and recommendations are made for ensuring the future viability of the ANP role.

  6. Predictive Low-Glucose Insulin Suspension Reduces Duration of Nocturnal Hypoglycemia in Children Without Increasing Ketosis.

    PubMed

    Buckingham, Bruce A; Raghinaru, Dan; Cameron, Fraser; Bequette, B Wayne; Chase, H Peter; Maahs, David M; Slover, Robert; Wadwa, R Paul; Wilson, Darrell M; Ly, Trang; Aye, Tandy; Hramiak, Irene; Clarson, Cheril; Stein, Robert; Gallego, Patricia H; Lum, John; Sibayan, Judy; Kollman, Craig; Beck, Roy W

    2015-07-01

    Nocturnal hypoglycemia can cause seizures and is a major impediment to tight glycemic control, especially in young children with type 1 diabetes. We conducted an in-home randomized trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a continuous glucose monitor-based overnight predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system. In two age-groups of children with type 1 diabetes (11-14 and 4-10 years of age), a 42-night trial for each child was conducted wherein each night was assigned randomly to either having the PLGS system active (intervention night) or inactive (control night). The primary outcome was percent time <70 mg/dL overnight. Median time at <70 mg/dL was reduced by 54% from 10.1% on control nights to 4.6% on intervention nights (P < 0.001) in 11-14-year-olds (n = 45) and by 50% from 6.2% to 3.1% (P < 0.001) in 4-10-year-olds (n = 36). Mean overnight glucose was lower on control versus intervention nights in both age-groups (144 ± 18 vs. 152 ± 19 mg/dL [P < 0.001] and 153 ± 14 vs. 160 ± 16 mg/dL [P = 0.004], respectively). Mean morning blood glucose was 159 ± 29 vs. 176 ± 28 mg/dL (P < 0.001) in the 11-14-year-olds and 154 ± 25 vs. 158 ± 22 mg/dL (P = 0.11) in the 4-10-year-olds, respectively. No differences were found between intervention and control in either age-group in morning blood ketosis. In 4-14-year-olds, use of a nocturnal PLGS system can substantially reduce overnight hypoglycemia without an increase in morning ketosis, although overnight mean glucose is slightly higher. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  7. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  8. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  9. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  10. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  11. Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Katarina L.; Pennline, James A.

    2013-01-01

    During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

  12. Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations.

    PubMed

    Rowberry, Matt D; Martí, Xavi; Frontera, Carlos; Van De Wiel, Marco J; Briestenský, Miloš

    2016-06-01

    Cave radon concentration measurements reflect the outcome of a perpetual competition which pitches flux against ventilation and radioactive decay. The mass balance equations used to model changes in radon concentration through time routinely treat flux as a constant. This mathematical simplification is acceptable as a first order approximation despite the fact that it sidesteps an intrinsic geological problem: the majority of radon entering a cavity is exhaled as a result of advection along crustal discontinuities whose motions are inhomogeneous in both time and space. In this paper the dynamic nature of flux is investigated and the results are used to predict cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The first part of our numerical modelling procedure focuses on calculating cave air flow velocity while the second part isolates flux in a mass balance equation to simulate real time dependence among the variables. It is then possible to use this information to deliver an expression for computing cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The dynamic variables in the numerical model are represented by the outer temperature, the inner temperature, and the radon concentration while the static variables are represented by the radioactive decay constant and a range of parameters related to geometry of the cavity. Input data were recorded at Driny Cave in the Little Carpathians Mountains of western Slovakia. Here the cave passages have developed along splays of the NE-SW striking Smolenice Fault and a series of transverse faults striking NW-SE. Independent experimental observations of fault slip are provided by three permanently installed mechanical extensometers. Our numerical modelling has revealed four important flux anomalies between January 2010 and August 2011. Each of these flux anomalies was preceded by conspicuous fault slip anomalies. The mathematical procedure outlined in this paper will help to improve our understanding of radon migration

  13. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  14. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  15. Knowledge Tracing and Prediction of Future Trainee Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-06-01

    algorithm to capture recency , frequency, and spacing effects , while also providing flexibility and capability for predicting performance at later...demonstrated the model’s ability to capture recency , frequency, and spacing effects of human memory, we next turn to address its predictive...predict and assess how effective each training repetition will be (as a function of memory trace activation) and to help optimize the spacing of

  16. Value of the QRS duration versus the serum drug level in predicting seizures and ventricular arrhythmias after an acute overdose of tricyclic antidepressants.

    PubMed

    Boehnert, M T; Lovejoy, F H

    1985-08-22

    There is a need for a rapid predictor of potential clinical severity to guide therapy in patients with an acute overdose of tricyclic antidepressant drugs. We performed a prospective study of 49 such patients to observe the associations among serum drug levels, maximal limb-lead QRS duration, and the incidence of seizures and ventricular arrhythmias. Patients were divided into two groups on the basis of maximal limb-lead QRS duration. Group A (13 patients) had a duration of less than 0.10 second, and Group B (36 patients) had a QRS duration of 0.10 second or longer. No seizures or ventricular arrhythmias occurred in Group A. In Group B there was a 34 per cent incidence of seizures and a 14 per cent incidence of ventricular arrhythmias. All patients survived. Serum drug levels failed to predict the risk of seizures or ventricular arrhythmias accurately. Seizures occurred at any QRS duration of 0.10 second or longer (P less than 0.05), but ventricular arrhythmias were seen only with a QRS duration of 0.16 second or longer (P less than 0.0005). We conclude that determination of the maximal limb-lead QRS duration predicts the risk of seizures and ventricular arrhythmias in acute overdose with tricyclic antidepressants. Serum drug levels are not of predictive value.

  17. Regionally Adaptable Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) from Empirical Models of Fourier and Duration of Ground Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bora, Sanjay; Scherbaum, Frank; Kuehn, Nicolas; Stafford, Peter; Edwards, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The current practice of deriving empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) involves using ground motions recorded at multiple sites. However, in applications like site-specific (e.g., critical facility) hazard ground motions obtained from the GMPEs are need to be adjusted/corrected to a particular site/site-condition under investigation. This study presents a complete framework for developing a response spectral GMPE, within which the issue of adjustment of ground motions is addressed in a manner consistent with the linear system framework. The present approach is a two-step process in which the first step consists of deriving two separate empirical models, one for Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and the other for a random vibration theory (RVT) optimized duration (Drvto) of ground motion. In the second step the two models are combined within the RVT framework to obtain full response spectral amplitudes. Additionally, the framework also involves a stochastic model based extrapolation of individual Fourier spectra to extend the useable frequency limit of the empirically derived FAS model. The stochastic model parameters were determined by inverting the Fourier spectral data using an approach similar to the one as described in Edwards and Faeh (2013). Comparison of median predicted response spectra from present approach with those from other regional GMPEs indicates that the present approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

  18. Monolayer cultivation of osteoprogenitors shortens duration of the embryonic stem cell test while reliably predicting developmental osteotoxicity.

    PubMed

    zur Nieden, Nicole I; Davis, Lesley A; Rancourt, Derrick E

    2010-11-09

    Osteotoxic compounds administered during pregnancy can initiate skeletal congenital anomalies in the embryo. In vitro, developmental osteotoxicity of a compound can be predicted with the embryonic stem cell test (EST), the only in vitro embryotoxicity model identified to date that entirely abrogates the use of animals. Although the previously identified endpoint osteocalcin mRNA expression robustly predicts developmental osteotoxicity, it can only be assayed after 5 weeks of in vitro culture with existing embryoid body (EB)-based differentiation protocols. Therefore, the goal of this study was to characterize novel earlier endpoints of developmental osteotoxicity for the EST. The currently used EB-based differentiation protocol was modified so that a monolayer culture of pre-differentiated cells was inoculated. The expression profile of five bone-specific mRNAs, including osteocalcin, over the course of 30 differentiation days suggested an acceleration of pre-osteoblast specification in the monolayer over the EB-based protocol. Similarly, calcification was already visible after 14 days of culture in monolayer cultures. Employing image and absorption-based techniques to measure the degree of mineralization in these cells after compound treatment, the three compounds Penicillin G, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and all-trans retinoic acid (RA) were then tested after 14 days in monolayer cultures and compared to embryoid body-based differentiations at day 30. By modifying the culture the three test substances were classified correctly into non- or strong osteotoxic. Moreover, we were successful in shortening the assay duration from 30 to 14 days.

  19. Prediction of streamflow regimes over large geographical areas: interpolated flow-duration curves for the Danube region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persiano, Simone; Pugliese, Alessio; Aloe, Alberto; Olav Skøien, Jon; Pistocchi, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

    2017-04-01

    The present study aims at performing a statistical regionalization of streamflow regimes over large areas, with a special focus on the Danube region, producing a GIS data-layer to be made available for a broader use in the Danube region through the Danube Reference Spatial Data Infrastructure (DRSDI). Streamflow indices (e.g. Mean Annual Flow) as well as empirical period-of-record flow-duration curves (FDCs, i.e. streamflow values associated with 15 exceedance-probability values between 1% and 99.7%) are compiled by European Joint Research Centre (JRC) for 3000 discharge measurement points across Europe. The drainage area upstream each point is characterized in terms of physiographic and climate descriptors. First, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the relationships existing between selected indices of the streamflow-regime and catchment descriptors, focussing on Europe and the Danube region. Although our analysis shows the existence of statistically significant correlations between streamflow-regime indices and catchment descriptors for both areas, our preliminary investigation recommends against predicting the streamflow-regime through multiregression models based on the study dataset. Second, we consider geostatistical interpolation of the streamflow regime in the Danube region and we select the recently proposed procedure termed Total Negative Deviation Top-Kriging (TNDTK). The main aim of the second part of our study is twofold: (1) to test the viability of TNDTK for predicting FDCs over large geographical regions; (2) to develop indicators of the reliability of large scale predictions of FDCs. Predicted FDCs show a high accuracy for the entire Danube region (overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency computed on log-flows using a leave-p-out cross-validation procedure is equal to 0.938, 0.935, and 0.923, with p equal to 1 site, one third and half of the sites, in this order) and a statement on uncertainty is attached to each interpolated FDC in the Danube region

  20. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

    2017-01-01

    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

  1. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

    2017-02-01

    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

  2. Predicting past and future diameter growth for trees in the northeastern United States

    Treesearch

    James A. Westfall

    2006-01-01

    Tree diameter growth models are widely used in forestry applications, often to predict tree size at a future point in time. Also, there are instances where projections of past diameters are needed. A relative diameter growth model was developed to allow prediction of both future and past growth rates. Coefficients were estimated for 15 species groups that cover most...

  3. Future Time Perspective: Adolescents' Predictions of Their Interpersonal Lives in the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blinn, Lynn M.; Pike, Gary

    1989-01-01

    Investigated adolescent future time perspective in adolescents (N=125) aged 15 to 20 years. Found adolescents did not perceive divorce in their future although periods of singlehood, widowhood, and nuclear family life were perceived as extremely likely, particularly among female adolescents. (Author/ABL)

  4. Future Time Perspective: Adolescents' Predictions of Their Interpersonal Lives in the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blinn, Lynn M.; Pike, Gary

    1989-01-01

    Investigated adolescent future time perspective in adolescents (N=125) aged 15 to 20 years. Found adolescents did not perceive divorce in their future although periods of singlehood, widowhood, and nuclear family life were perceived as extremely likely, particularly among female adolescents. (Author/ABL)

  5. Tenofovir treatment duration predicts proteinuria in a multiethnic United States Cohort of children and adolescents with perinatal HIV-1 infection.

    PubMed

    Purswani, Murli; Patel, Kunjal; Kopp, Jeffrey B; Seage, George R; Chernoff, Miriam C; Hazra, Rohan; Siberry, George K; Mofenson, Lynne M; Scott, Gwendolyn B; Van Dyke, Russell B

    2013-05-01

    Tenofovir is associated with renal proximal tubule injury. Such toxicity has not been extensively studied in HIV-1-infected children, in whom tenofovir is increasingly used. History, urine and blood were collected at regular intervals from 448 children and adolescents with perinatal HIV-1 infection followed in the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort study. Relationships between tenofovir use and proteinuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) outcomes were examined using multivariable logistic regression models. Proteinuria was defined as at least one urine protein/creatinine ratio (uPCR) ≥ 0.2, and CKD as ≥ 2 sequential uPCR ≥ 0.2 or estimated glomerular filtration rates <60 mL/min/1.73 m with no subsequent resolution, or a clinical diagnosis not contradicted by a normal uPCR. Subjects with ≥ 2 uPCR <0.2, and no abnormal uPCR and eGFR comprised the comparison group. Subjects were 47% male, 72% black, 24% Hispanic, with entry mean age (± standard deviation) of 11.5 ± 2.5 years. Proteinuria prevalence at entry, and annually during 3 years, ranged from 10.3% to 13.7%. The cumulative prevalence of proteinuria was 22% (94/434, 95% confidence interval: 18%-26%) and CKD 4.5% (20/448, 95% confidence interval: 2.7%-6.8%). Duration of tenofovir use was an independent predictor of proteinuria, with >3 years of exposure having the highest risk compared with no exposure (odds ratio: 2.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.23-5.22, overall P = 0.01). Overall, duration of tenofovir use did not significantly predict the presence of CKD. Rates of proteinuria and CKD were lower than those seen in the pre-highly active antiretroviral therapy era. However, prolonged exposure to tenofovir increases risk of renal injury.

  6. Anti-MCV antibodies predict radiographic progression in Greek patients with very early (<3 months duration) rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Barouta, Georgia; Katsiari, Christina G; Alexiou, Ioannis; Liaskos, Christos; Varna, Areti; Bogdanos, Dimitrios P; Germenis, Anastasios E; Sakkas, Lazaros I

    2017-04-01

    This study aimed to assess the diagnostic and prognostic value of anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (MCV) antibodies in very early rheumatoid arthritis (VERA) and in established rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Seventy-one patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA) of <3 months duration, 141 with established RA, 53 with other rheumatic diseases, and 40 healthy individuals were included in the study. Anti-MCV, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies, and rheumatoid factor (RF) were determined and hand radiographs were recorded. Patients were assessed prospectively for 2 years, and hand radiographs were repeated. Diagnostic performance of anti-MCV was studied with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. Forty-six percent of UA patients progressed to RA at 2 years. In VERA patients, sensitivity of anti-MCV was 52 %, compared to 44 % of anti-CCP and 37 % of RF, while specificity was 91 %, compared to 91 % of RF and 84 % of anti-CCP. Anti-MCV were detected in 25 % of VERA patients negative for both anti-CCP and RF. In established RA, anti-MCV did not sustain its diagnostic performance. By multivariable analysis, anti-MCV, but not anti-CCP or RF, showed significant correlation with radiographic progression in VERA patients. In established RA, anti-MCV, anti-CCP, and RF were associated with active disease (p ≤ 0.03) and joint damage (p ≤ 0.004). By multivariate analysis, the strongest factors for radiographic damage were disease duration (p = 0.000), HAQ score (p = 0.000), and RF (p = 0.002). In conclusion, in patients with very early UA, anti-MCV predict both progression to RA and radiological damage, and therefore, anti-MCV antibody testing may be useful in every day practice.

  7. Visions: Reflections on the Past, Predictions of the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connection: The Journal of the New England Board of Higher Education, 2005

    2005-01-01

    To mark New England Board of Higher Education's (NEBHE) 50th anniversary year, "Connection" invited a small group of visionary commentators to submit short "statements" on the future of New England's economic and civic development, tomorrow's technologies and the changing shape of higher education. This article includes the…

  8. Predicting Future Trends in Adult Fitness Using the Delphi Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, William F.; Jarman, Boyd O.

    1987-01-01

    This study examines the future of adult fitness from the perspective of experts. The Delphi Technique was used as a measurement tool. Findings revealed that the experts most relied on increased awareness of health and fitness among the elderly as a significant predictor variable. (Author/CB)

  9. Flow-duration curves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Searcy, James Kincheon

    1959-01-01

    The flow-duration curve is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of time specified discharges were equaled or exceeded during a given period. It combines in one curve the flow characteristics of a stream throughout the range of discharge, without regard to the sequence of occurrence. If the period upon which the curve is based represents the long-term flow of a stream, the curve may be used to predict the distribution of future flows for water- power, water-supply, and pollution studies. This report shows that differences in geology affect the low-flow ends of flow-duration curves of streams in adjacent basins. Thus, duration curves are useful in appraising the geologic characteristics of drainage basins. A method for adjusting flow-duration curves of short periods to represent long-term conditions is presented. The adjustment is made by correlating the records of a short-term station with those of a long-term station.

  10. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

  11. Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

  12. Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

  13. Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

    2006-01-01

    Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

  14. Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

    2006-01-01

    Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

  15. Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy after Ellis: Predictions for the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weinrach, Stephen G.; Ellis, Albert; DiGiuseppe, Raymond; Bernard, Michael E.; Dryden, Windy; Kassinove, Howard; Morris, G. Barry; Vernon, Ann; Wolfe, Janet

    1995-01-01

    Nine members of the institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy's (REBT) International Training Standards and Review Committee predicted the status of REBT 25 to 50 years after the death of Albert Ellis. Will REBT continue to exist in its own right or be incorporated into newer forms of cognitive behavior therapy? (EMK)

  16. Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

    PubMed Central

    Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R; Adler, Frederick R; Sanders, Nathan J

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change. PMID:24963378

  17. Predicting the Future: Studies on the Growth of the Intellect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ.

    This illustrated booklet describes research procedures in the Infant Laboratory of the Educational Testing Service to investigate measurable factors in infant behavior which can predict intellectual potential. The research is currently focusing on attending, the manner in which infants respond to various stimuli presented to them during their…

  18. Does antibody binding to diverse antigens predict future infection?

    PubMed

    Owen, J P; Waite, J L; Holden, K Z; Clayton, D H

    2014-11-01

    We studied diverse antigen binding in hosts and the outcome of parasitism. We used captive-bred F1 descendants of feral rock pigeons (Columba livia) challenged with blood-feeding flies (Hippoboscidae) and a protozoan parasite (Haemoproteus). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and immunoblots were used to test (i) whether pre-infection IgY antigen binding predicts parasite fitness and (ii) whether antigen binding changes after infection. Assays used extracts from three pigeon parasites (northern fowl mite, Salmonella bacteria and avian pox virus), as well as nonparasitic molecules from cattle, chicken and keyhole limpet. Binding to hippoboscid and S. enterica extracts were predictive of hippoboscid fly fitness. Binding to extracts from hippoboscids, pox virus and nonparasitic organisms was predictive of Haemoproteus infection levels. Antigen binding to all extracts increased after parasite challenge, despite the fact that birds were only exposed to flies and Haemoproteus. Immunoblots suggested innate Ig binding to parasite-associated molecular markers and revealed that new antigens were bound in extracts after infection. These data suggest that host antibody binding to diverse antigens predicts parasite fitness even when the antigens are not related to the infecting parasite. We discuss the implications of these data for the study of host-parasite immunological interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Prediction of Research Self-Efficacy and Future Research Involvement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bishop, Rosean M.; And Others

    Although graduate programs hope that their students will be committed to research in their careers, most students express ambivalence towards research. Identifying the variables that predict involvement in research thus seems crucial. In this study 136 doctoral students from a wide range of disciplines completed the Research Self-Efficacy Scale…

  20. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L.

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end,…

  1. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  2. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  3. Exploring the added value of machine learning methods in predicting flow duration curves: a comparative analysis for ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kentel, E.; Dogulu, N.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding catchment hydrology is a fundamental concern for hydrologists and water resources planners. In this context, given the increasing demand for streamflow information at sparsely gauged or ungauged catchments, there has been great interest in estimating flow duration curve (FDC) due to its many practical applications. Statistical methods have been widely used for the modelling of FDCs at ungauged sites. These methods usually rely on estimation of flow quantiles, or quantitative characteristics of the FDCs representing their shape such as slope and parameters of statistical distribution, often in the context of regionalization. However, there are limited studies using methods of machine learning. Potential of various machine learning approaches for estimating FDCs is yet to be explored although these methods have successfully and extensively applied to solve various other water resources management and hydrological problems. This study addresses this gap by presenting a comparative performance evaluation of the methods: i) Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), ii) Regression Tree (RT), iii) Artificial Neural Network (ANN), iv) Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Comparison of these methods is done for FDCs of the Western Black Sea catchment in Turkey modelled by relating flow quantiles to a number of variables representing catchment and climate characteristics. Accuracy of predicted FDCs is assessed by three different measures: the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the Percent Bias (PBIAS).

  4. Predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory medicine: back to the future

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    The pioneering work of Jean Dausset on the HLA system established several principles that were later reflected in the Human Genome Project and contributed to the foundations of predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine. To effectively develop systems medicine, we should take advantage of the lessons of the HLA saga, emphasizing the importance of exploring a fascinating but mysterious biology, now using systems principles, pioneering new technology developments and creating shared biological and information resources. PMID:20804580

  5. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    PubMed Central

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  6. Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

  7. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  8. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    PubMed

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-07-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P < 0.001). When adjusting for calendar time, age, sex, educational level, smoking, and baseline values for bleeding on probing, probing pocket depth >4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  9. Sensitivity to secondhand smoke exposure predicts future smoking susceptibility.

    PubMed

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Wahlgren, Dennis R; Liles, Sandy; Ji, Ming; Hughes, Suzanne C; Winickoff, Jonathan P; Jones, Jennifer A; Swan, Gary E; Hovell, Melbourne F

    2011-08-01

    Susceptibility to cigarette smoking in tobacco-naive youth is a strong predictor of smoking initiation. Identifying mechanisms that contribute to smoking susceptibility provide information about early targets for smoking prevention. This study investigated whether sensitivity to secondhand smoke exposure (SHSe) contributes to smoking susceptibility. Subjects were high-risk, ethnically diverse 8- to 13-year-old subjects who never smoked and who lived with at least 1 smoker and who participated in a longitudinal SHSe reduction intervention trial. Reactions (eg, feeling dizzy) to SHSe were assessed at baseline, and smoking susceptibility was assessed at baseline and 3 follow-up measurements over 12 months. We examined the SHSe reaction factor structure, association with demographic characteristics, and prediction of longitudinal smoking susceptibility status. Factor analysis identified "physically unpleasant" and "pleasant" reaction factors. Reported SHSe reactions did not differ across gender or family smoking history. More black preteens reported feeling relaxed and calm, and fewer reported feeling a head rush or buzz compared with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white counterparts. Longitudinally, 8.5% of subjects tracked along the trajectory for high (versus low) smoking susceptibility. Reporting SHSe as "unpleasant or gross" predicted a 78% reduction in the probability of being assigned to the high-smoking susceptibility trajectory (odds ratio: 0.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.95]), after covariate adjustment. Assessment of SHSe sensitivity is a novel approach to the study of cigarette initiation etiology and informs prevention interventions.

  10. Predicting Preterm Labour: Current Status and Future Prospects

    PubMed Central

    Georgiou, Harry M.; Di Quinzio, Megan K. W.; Permezel, Michael; Brennecke, Shaun P.

    2015-01-01

    Preterm labour and birth are a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Despite modern advances in obstetric and neonatal management, the rate of preterm birth in the developed world is increasing. Yet even though numerous risk factors associated with preterm birth have been identified, the ability to accurately predict when labour will occur remains elusive, whether it is at a term or preterm gestation. In the latter case, this is likely due to the multifactorial aetiology of preterm labour wherein women may display different clinical presentations that lead to preterm birth. The discovery of novel biomarkers that could reliably identify women who will subsequently deliver preterm may allow for timely medical intervention and targeted therapeutic treatments aimed at improving maternal and fetal outcomes. Various body fluids including amniotic fluid, urine, saliva, blood (serum/plasma), and cervicovaginal fluid all provide a rich protein source of putative biochemical markers that may be causative or reflective of the various pathophysiological disorders of pregnancy, including preterm labour. This short review will highlight recent advances in the field of biomarker discovery and the utility of single and multiple biomarkers for the prediction of preterm birth in the absence of intra-amniotic infection. PMID:26160993

  11. Digitization and its discontents: future shock in predictive oncology.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Richard J

    2010-02-01

    Clinical cancer care is being transformed by a high-technology informatics revolution fought out between the forces of personalized (biomarker-guided) and depersonalized (bureaucracy-controlled) medicine. Factors triggering this conflict include the online proliferation of treatment algorithms, rising prices of biological drug therapies, increasing sophistication of genomic-based predictive tools, and the growing entrepreneurialism of offshore treatment facilities. The resulting Napster-like forces unleashed within the oncology marketplace will deliver incremental improvements in cost-efficacy to global healthcare consumers. There will also be a price to pay, however, as the rising wave of digitization encourages third-party payers to make more use of biomarkers for tightening reimbursement criteria. Hence, as in other digitally transformed industries, a new paradigm of professional service delivery-less centered on doctor-patient relationships than in the past, and more dependent on pricing and marketing for standardized biomarker-defined indications-seems set to emerge as the unpredicted deliverable from this brave new world of predictive oncology.

  12. Sensitivity to Secondhand Smoke Exposure Predicts Future Smoking Susceptibility

    PubMed Central

    Wahlgren, Dennis R.; Liles, Sandy; Ji, Ming; Hughes, Suzanne C.; Winickoff, Jonathan P.; Jones, Jennifer A.; Swan, Gary E.; Hovell, Melbourne F.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Susceptibility to cigarette smoking in tobacco-naive youth is a strong predictor of smoking initiation. Identifying mechanisms that contribute to smoking susceptibility provide information about early targets for smoking prevention. This study investigated whether sensitivity to secondhand smoke exposure (SHSe) contributes to smoking susceptibility. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Subjects were high-risk, ethnically diverse 8- to 13-year-old subjects who never smoked and who lived with at least 1 smoker and who participated in a longitudinal SHSe reduction intervention trial. Reactions (eg, feeling dizzy) to SHSe were assessed at baseline, and smoking susceptibility was assessed at baseline and 3 follow-up measurements over 12 months. We examined the SHSe reaction factor structure, association with demographic characteristics, and prediction of longitudinal smoking susceptibility status. RESULTS: Factor analysis identified “physically unpleasant” and “pleasant” reaction factors. Reported SHSe reactions did not differ across gender or family smoking history. More black preteens reported feeling relaxed and calm, and fewer reported feeling a head rush or buzz compared with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white counterparts. Longitudinally, 8.5% of subjects tracked along the trajectory for high (versus low) smoking susceptibility. Reporting SHSe as “unpleasant or gross” predicted a 78% reduction in the probability of being assigned to the high–smoking susceptibility trajectory (odds ratio: 0.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.05–0.95]), after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of SHSe sensitivity is a novel approach to the study of cigarette initiation etiology and informs prevention interventions. PMID:21746728

  13. Can Global Weed Assemblages Be Used to Predict Future Weeds?

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Louise; Paini, Dean R.; Randall, Roderick P.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM) approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems. PMID:23393591

  14. Future So Bright? Delay Discounting and Consideration of Future Consequences Predict Academic Performance Among College Drinkers.

    PubMed

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-09-14

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

    PubMed

    Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

    2017-03-01

    The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having

  16. Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the .net future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Ernest L.

    2001-10-01

    An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The use of these machines in factory automation can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. This paper presents a discussion of recent and future technical and economic trends. During the past twenty years the use of industrial robots that are equipped not only with precise motion control systems but also with sensors such as cameras, laser scanners, or tactile sensors that permit adaptation to a changing environment has increased dramatically. Intelligent robot products have been developed in many cases for factory automation and for some hospital and home applications. To reach an even higher degree of applications, the addition of learning may be required. Recently, learning theories such as the adaptive critic have been proposed. In this type of learning, a critic provides a grade to the controller of an action module such as a robot. The adaptive critic is a good model for human learning. In general, the critic may be considered to be the human with the teach pendant, plant manager, line supervisor, quality inspector or the consumer. If the ultimate critic is the consumer, then the quality inspector must model the consumer's decision-making process and use this model in the design and manufacturing operations. Can the adaptive critic be used to advance intelligent robots? Intelligent robots have historically taken decades to be developed and reduced to practice. Methods for speeding this development include technology such as rapid prototyping and product development and government, industry and university cooperation.

  17. Myocardial contractile patterns predict future cardiac events in sarcoidosis.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jian; Lei, Juan; Scalzetti, Ernest; McGrath, Mary; Feiglin, David; Voelker, Robert; Wang, Jingfeng; Iannuzzi, Michael C; Liu, Kan

    2017-09-09

    The poor prognosis of cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) underscores the need for risk stratification. We evaluated 84 consecutive sarcoidosis patients who were referred for echocardiographic studies for cardiac symptoms or abnormal electrocardiograms. In 54 patients without previous diagnosis of CS or other known structural heart disease, 13 reached endpoints during (median) 24 months follow up. Significantly impaired peak systolic longitudinal strain in their original echocardiograms were identified in 13 of 17 left ventricular segments, clustering in the free wall, interventricular septum and apex. The regional (including 13 clustered segments) peak systolic longitudinal strain (RPSLS) were significantly impaired in patients with endpoints, compared with those without [(-11.4 ± 4.45) vs. (-18.7 ± 3.76) %, P < 0.00001]. Cox multivariate regression analysis revealed that RPSLS was independently associated with endpoints (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.08-1.42, P = 0.002). Receiver operating characteristic curve suggested a cut-off RPSLS value of -15.0% (84.6% sensitivity and 86.8% specificity) to predict the occurrence of endpoints. Impaired RPSLS correlates with risk of adverse cardiac events in patients with extra-cardiac sarcoidosis.

  18. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    PubMed

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  19. Prediction of conversion to psychosis: review and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Gee, Dylan G.; Cannon, Tyrone D.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews recent findings on predictors of conversion to psychosis among youth deemed at ultra high risk (UHR) based on the presence of subpsychotic-intensity symptoms or genetic risk for psychosis and a recent decline in functioning. Although transition rates differ between studies, the most well powered studies have observed rates of conversion to full psychosis in the 30–40% range over 2–3 years of follow-up. Across studies, severity of subthreshold positive symptoms, poorer social functioning, and genetic risk for schizophrenia appear to be consistent predictors of conversion to psychosis, with algorithms combining these indicators achieving positive predictive power ≥ 80%. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of UHR cases do not convert to psychosis. Recent work indicates that UHR cases who present with lower levels of negative symptoms and higher levels of social functioning are more likely to recover symptomatically and no longer meet criteria for an at-risk mental state. In general, it appears that about 1/3 of UHR cases convert to psychosis, about 1/3 do not convert but remain symptomatic and functionally impaired, and about 1/3 recover symptomatically and functionally. Continued efforts to detect early risk for psychosis are critical for informing early intervention and provide increasing promise of delaying or even preventing the onset of psychosis. PMID:22286564

  20. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Gerrad D.; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H. E.

    2017-01-01

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. PMID:28223487

  1. Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

    PubMed

    de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

    2017-06-01

    The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

  2. A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

  3. A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

  4. Pre-attentive sensitivity to vowel duration reveals native phonology and predicts learning of second-language sounds.

    PubMed

    Chládková, Kateřina; Escudero, Paola; Lipski, Silvia C

    2013-09-01

    In some languages (e.g. Czech), changes in vowel duration affect word meaning, while in others (e.g. Spanish) they do not. Yet for other languages (e.g. Dutch), the linguistic role of vowel duration remains unclear. To reveal whether Dutch represents vowel length in its phonology, we compared auditory pre-attentive duration processing in native and non-native vowels across Dutch, Czech, and Spanish. Dutch duration sensitivity patterned with Czech but was larger than Spanish in the native vowel, while it was smaller than Czech and Spanish in the non-native vowel. An interpretation of these findings suggests that in Dutch, duration is used phonemically but it might be relevant for the identity of certain native vowels only. Furthermore, the finding that Spanish listeners are more sensitive to duration in non-native than in native vowels indicates that a lack of duration differences in one's native language could be beneficial for second-language learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Does presentation at the Registrars' Papers Day predict future publication?

    PubMed

    Wong, Shing W; Crowe, Philip J

    2006-06-01

    There are research requirements for trainees to be eligible to present for their final examinations (Fellowship of Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, FRACS). One option is the presentation of a paper or poster at a meeting of which abstracts are subject to review and selection. This includes presentation at the annual Registrars' Papers Day (RPD) in New South Wales. There has been some debate surrounding whether research requirements are fulfilled by presentation at such meetings. Publication in a peer-reviewed journal should be the ultimate aim. A high publication rate will validate the quality of the meeting. All abstracts submitted to the RPD in 1998 and 1999 were analysed. A Medline search was performed in 2005 to identify publication of these presentations in a peer-reviewed journal. Variables of the study that were potentially predictive of subsequent publication were analysed. This included type of presentation, surgical specialty, clinical or laboratory-based study, study design (prospective or retrospective) and sample size. Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction was used to compare two independent proportions and significance was set at P < 0.05. The publication rates were: oral presentations 50% (17/34), poster presentations 39% (9/23) and rejected presentations 20% (2/10). The mean and median time to publication was 23.8 and 21.0 months. Prospective design was the only variable identified to have a statistically significant effect on the publication rate (P < 0.002). The most common publishing journal was the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Surgery (12 of 26). Overall consistency (author and study sample consistency) from presentation to publication was 32%. The overall 46% publication rate of this state-based trainees-organized meeting compares favourably with international meetings. The research requirement of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS), which includes presentation at the RPD in New South Wales, produces

  6. Predictive animal models of mania: hits, misses and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Young, Jared W; Henry, Brook L; Geyer, Mark A

    2011-01-01

    Mania has long been recognized as aberrant behaviour indicative of mental illness. Manic states include a variety of complex and multifaceted symptoms that challenge clear clinical distinctions. Symptoms include over-activity, hypersexuality, irritability and reduced need for sleep, with cognitive deficits recently linked to functional outcome. Current treatments have arisen through serendipity or from other disorders. Hence, treatments are not efficacious for all patients, and there is an urgent need to develop targeted therapeutics. Part of the drug discovery process is the assessment of therapeutics in animal models. Here we review pharmacological, environmental and genetic manipulations developed to test the efficacy of therapeutics in animal models of mania. The merits of these models are discussed in terms of the manipulation used and the facet of mania measured. Moreover, the predictive validity of these models is discussed in the context of differentiating drugs that succeed or fail to meet criteria as approved mania treatments. The multifaceted symptomatology of mania has not been reflected in the majority of animal models, where locomotor activity remains the primary measure. This approach has resulted in numerous false positives for putative treatments. Recent work highlights the need to utilize multivariate strategies to enable comprehensive assessment of affective and cognitive dysfunction. Advances in therapeutic treatment may depend on novel models developed with an integrated approach that includes: (i) a comprehensive battery of tests for different aspects of mania, (ii) utilization of genetic information to establish aetiological validity and (iii) objective quantification of patient behaviour with translational cross-species paradigms. LINKED ARTICLES This article is part of a themed issue on Translational Neuropharmacology. To view the other articles in this issue visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2011.164.issue-4 PMID:21410454

  7. Callous-Unemotional Traits Robustly Predict Future Criminal Offending in Young Men

    PubMed Central

    Kahn, Rachel E.; Byrd, Amy L.; Pardini, Dustin A.

    2013-01-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of empathy, deficient guilt/remorse, and shallow affect) are a circumscribed facet of the adult psychopathic personality. Although several studies have found that adult psychopathy is a robust predictor of future criminal offending, research exploring the predictive utility of CU traits and future offending are lacking. Moreover, empirical studies examining the predictive utility of psychopathic features often neglect to account for other well-documented risk factors (e.g., prior offending, delinquent peers, marital status), and thus the incremental predictive utility of CU traits remains uncertain. To address these limitations, the current study examined the unique contribution of CU traits in the prediction of future criminal offending in a large ethnically diverse community sample of young adult males (Mean Age = 25.76, SD = .95). Official criminal record information was collected approximately 3.5 years later using multiple sources. Results indicated that after controlling for several other well-established predictors of future offending, men with elevated CU traits had a greater number of arrests and criminal charges and were more likely to be charged with a serious offense and obstruction of justice. CU traits also predicted future theft for Caucasian men, but not African American men. Overall, the results support the notion that CU traits significantly add to the prediction of future offending, even after controlling for several other risk factors. PMID:22731505

  8. Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

    2015-02-01

    Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

  10. THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory


    The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
    Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

    When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

  11. THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory


    The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
    Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

    When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

  12. Prediction of future credit rating using a non-Markovian model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Haur, Ng Kok

    2017-04-01

    The matrix of transition probabilities between rating classes is a popular approach for predicting the future credit rating. This paper instead attempts to predict the future credit rating using a non-Markovian model. The prediction is done via the probability of the future credit rating given the ratings in the present and previous quarters. The estimation of the conditional probability of future credit rating is carried out by means of simulation after fitting the data with a multivariate power-normal distribution. The results based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal indicate the need of extending the Markovian model to the non-Markovian model.

  13. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Stoddard, Sarah A.; Heinze, Justin E.; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2015-01-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents’ violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26282242

  14. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    PubMed

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

    PubMed

    Schrodi, Steven J; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J; Callear, Amy P; Carter, Tonia C; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L; Brilliant, Murray H; Crane, Paul K; Smelser, Diane T; Elston, Robert C; Weeks, Daniel E

    2014-01-01

    Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications.

  16. Recognition of the Duration and Prediction of Insect Prevalence of Stored Rough Rice Infested by the Red Flour Beetle (Tribolium castaneum Herbst) Using an Electronic Nose.

    PubMed

    Xu, Sai; Zhou, Zhiyan; Li, Keliang; Jamir, Sierra Mari; Luo, Xiwen

    2017-04-14

    The purpose of this research is to explore the feasibility of applying an electronic nose for the intelligent monitoring of injurious insects in a stored grain environment. In this study, we employed an electronic nose to sample rough rice that contained three degrees of red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum Herbst) infestation for different durations-light degree (LD), middle degree (MD), and heavy degree (HD)-and manually investigated the insect situation at the same time. Manual insect situation investigation shows that, in all three rice treatments, the insect amounts gradually decreased after infestation. When the insect population of stored rough rice was under 13 insects per 60 g of rough rice, the natural speed of decrease of the insect population became very slow and reached the best artificial insect killing period. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) provided good performance for MD and HD insect harm duration identification, but performed poorly for LD insect harm duration identification. Both k-means clustering analysis (K-means) and fuzzy c-means analysis (FCM) effectively identified the insect harm duration for stored rough rice. The results from the back-propagation artificial neural network (BPNN) insect prevalence prediction for the three degrees of rough rice infestation demonstrated that the electronic nose could effectively predict insect prevalence in stored grain (fitting coefficients were larger than 0.89). The predictive ability was best for LD, second best for MD, and least accurate for HD. This experiment demonstrates the feasibility of electronic noses for detecting both the duration and prevalence of an insect infestation in stored grain and provides a reference for the intelligent monitoring of an insect infestation in stored grains.

  17. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  18. Predicting future blood demand from thalassemia major patients in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Lau, Eric H Y; He, Xiu-Qing; Lee, Cheuk-Kwong; Wu, Joseph T

    2013-01-01

    In Hong Kong, thalassemia major (TM) patients utilized up to 9.5% of blood supply in 2009. For long-term management of blood supply, we predicted the future blood demand of TM patients for the next 10 years. Annual individual transfusion data in 2005-2009 and demographic information of 381 TM patients were obtained from the Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service database. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) model was fitted to establish the potential relations of blood demand with age, sex, body weight, year of transfusion and splenectomy, accounted for within-patient correlation. The fitted model was used to predict future blood demand for the existing patients by accounting for expected change in body weight and mortality rate. We also predicted the number of new cases in the future based on age- and sex-specific TM incidence and official population projections. Future blood demand was predicted by combining blood demand from the existing and new patients. Female (RR = 0.94, p = 0.006) and history of splenectomy (RR = 0.85, p<0.001) were significantly associated with lower blood demand, while age and weight had an inverted U-shape relation with maximal blood demand at around 24 years of age and 71.8 kg, respectively. We predicted that the total blood demand would increase 0.81% annually from 13,459 units in 2009 to 15,183 units in 2024, with new TM cases accounting for 31.7% of the overall blood demand in 2024. Our results showed that future annual blood demand from TM patients would steadily increase in the next 10 years. Reducing incidence of TM cases in the future (by improving public education, antenatal care, prenatal diagnosis) and minimizing blood use among existing TM cases (e.g. with hemopoietic stem cell transplantation) can help relieve the burden on management of future blood demand.

  19. Lessons Learned and Future Goals of the High Lift Prediction Workshops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth; Slotnick, Jeffrey P.

    2016-01-01

    The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) High Lift Prediction Workshop series is described. Two workshops have been held to date. Major conclusions are summarized, and plans for future workshops are outlined. A compilation of lessons learned from the first two workshops is provided. This compilation includes a summary of needs for future high-lift experiments that are intended for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation.

  20. Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

  1. Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

  2. Impact of hierarchies of clinical codes on predicting future days in hospital.

    PubMed

    Yang Xie; Neubauer, Sandra; Schreier, Gunter; Redmond, Stephen J; Lovell, Nigel H

    2015-01-01

    Health insurance claims contain valuable information for predicting the future health of a population. Nowadays, with many mature machine learning algorithms, models can be implemented to predict future medical costs and hospitalizations. However, it is well-known that the way in which the data are represented significantly affects the performance of machine learning algorithms. In health insurance claims, key clinical information mainly comes from the associated clinical codes, such as diagnosis codes and procedure codes, which are hierarchically structured. In this study, it is investigated whether the hierarchies of such clinical codes can be utilized to improve predictive performance in the context of predicting future days in hospital. Empirical investigations were done on data sets of different sizes, considering that the frequency of the appearance of lower-level (more specific) clinical codes could vary significantly in populations of different sizes. The use of bagged trees with feature sets that include only basic demographic features, low-level, medium-level, high-level clinical codes, and a full feature set were compared. The main finding from this study is that different hierarchies of clinical codes do not have a significant impact on the predictive power. Some other findings include: 1) Sample size greatly affects the predictive outcome (more observations result in more stable and more accurate outcomes); 2) Combined use of enriched demographic features and clinical features give better performance as compared to using them separately.

  3. Reward Region Responsivity Predicts Future Weight Gain and Moderating Effects of the TaqIA Allele

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Kyle S.; Yokum, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    Because no large prospective study has investigated neural vulnerability factors that predict future weight gain, we tested whether neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of palatable food and monetary reward predicted body fat gain over a 3-year follow-up in healthy-weight adolescent humans and whether the TaqIA polymorphism moderates these relations. A total of 153 adolescents completed fMRI paradigms assessing response to these events; body fat was assessed annually over follow-up. Elevated orbitofrontal cortex response to cues signaling impending milkshake receipt predicted future body fat gain (r = 0.32), which is a novel finding that provides support for the incentive sensitization theory of obesity. Neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of monetary reward did not predict body fat gain, which has not been tested previously. Replicating an earlier finding (Stice et al., 2008a), elevated caudate response to milkshake receipt predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for greater dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing the TaqIA A2/A2 allele, but lower caudate response predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for less dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing a TaqIA A1 allele, though this interaction was only marginal [p-value <0.05 corrected using voxel-level familywise error rate (pFWE) = 0.06]. Parental obesity, which correlated with TaqIA allele status (odds ratio = 2.7), similarly moderated the relation of caudate response to milkshake receipt to future body fat gain, which is another novel finding. The former interaction implies that too much or too little dopamine signaling and reward region responsivity increases risk for overeating, suggesting qualitatively distinct reward surfeit and reward deficit pathways to obesity. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Because no large prospective study has investigated neural vulnerability factors that predict future weight gain we tested whether

  4. 'Will I want these stickers tomorrow?' Preschoolers' ability to predict current and future needs.

    PubMed

    Martin-Ordas, Gema

    2017-07-20

    Between 3 and 5 years of age, children develop the ability to plan for their own and others' future needs; however, they have great difficulty predicting future needs that conflict with current ones. Importantly, this ability has only been tested in the domain of physiological states (e.g., thirst). Therefore, it is still an open question whether in a different context preschoolers can disengage from their current needs to secure a different future one. In a Resource Allocation task, 4- and 5-year-olds had to distribute three types of rewards between themselves and another child for either 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward at beginning of the task. Only 5-year-olds could predict future needs that conflict with their current ones and act accordingly. Younger children's performance is discussed in the context of temporal and social distance. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? By the age of 4, children can plan for their own and others' future needs. Seven-year-old children still have difficulty predicting future physiological needs that conflict with their current ones. What does this study add? In a Resource Allocation task, preschoolers had to share rewards with another child for 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward. This study shows that 5-year-olds can predict future (non-physiological) needs that conflict with their current ones. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape

  6. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  7. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John

  8. The Accuracy of New Wheelchair Users’ Predictions about their Future Wheelchair Use

    PubMed Central

    Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

    2013-01-01

    Objective This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. Design Prospective cohort study of 84 community dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. Results The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3-months (phi coefficient = .56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3-months still using it (i.e., positive predictive value 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value 0.60, overall accuracy 0.92). Predictive Accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3-months to 0.66 at 6-months. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of usage in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term. PMID:22596074

  9. Prediction of Future Observations in Polynomial Growth Curve Models. Part 1.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-03-01

    UNIT NUMBERS University of Pittsburgh, Ninth Floor, PE6llO2F; 2304/A5 Schenley Hall, Pittsburgh PA 15260 It CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12...8217. DSIM Enitvd, ’ SR-TR. 8 3 0491 PREDICTION OF FUTURE OBSERVATIONS IN POLYNOMIAL GROWTH CURVE MODELS PART - 1 C. Radhakrishna Rao University of Pittsburgh

  10. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  11. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  12. Getting What You Expect? Future Self-Views Predict the Valence of Life Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voss, Peggy; Kornadt, Anna E.; Rothermund, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Views on aging have been shown to predict the occurrence of events related to physical health in previous studies. Extending these findings, we investigated the relation between aging-related future self-views and life events in a longitudinal study across a range of different life domains. Participants (N = 593, age range 30-80 years at…

  13. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  14. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  15. Use of the Weibull function to predict future diameter distributions from current plot data

    Treesearch

    Quang V. Cao

    2012-01-01

    The Weibull function has been widely used to characterize diameter distributions in forest stands. The future diameter distribution of a forest stand can be predicted by use of a Weibull probability density function from current inventory data for that stand. The parameter recovery approach has been used to “recover” the Weibull parameters from diameter moments or...

  16. Twenty Predictions about the Future of Residential Services in Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfensberger, Wolf

    2011-01-01

    Twenty predictions about the future of residential services to the mentally retarded are presented. These changes imply: (1) an entirely new model of residential services; (2) increasing continuity between residential and nonresidential services; and (3) increasing acceptance of cost-benefit rationales in the decision to offer residential or other…

  17. Developing a risk stratification model for predicting future health care use in asthmatic children.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Jill R; Lee, Brian R; Williams, David D; Murphy, Helen; Kennedy, Kevin; DeLurgio, Stephen A; Portnoy, Jay; Reddy, Mamta

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have stratified pediatric asthma patients for risk of future exacerbation and/or health care use, but most incorporate multiple clinical parameters. To determine whether historical acute care visits (ACVs) alone could predict risk of future health care use. Children seen for asthma in an outpatient visit during a 3-year period were identified. The number of ACVs in the 12 months before and after the outpatient visit was determined. Logistic regression models were used to determine the odds of a future ACV. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and insurance status. Of 28,047 outpatient visits, 21,099 (75.2%) had no historical ACVs. The probability of a future ACV increased from 30% with one historical ACV to 87% with 5 or more historical ACVs. Outpatient visits with one historical ACV had significantly higher odds of a future ACV compared with those with no historical ACVs (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.14-4.12; P < .001). The OR increased with each additional historical ACV to an adjusted OR of 58.71 (95% CI, 24.34-141.61; P < .001) with 5 or more historical ACVs. Outpatient visits with 5 or more historical ACVs represented only 1.1% of the study sample but accounted for a higher mean number of future ACVs. The historical count of ACVs was predictive of future ACVs. A significant increase in the probability of future ACVs was observed with each additional historical visit, effectively stratifying risk by the historical visit count. Notably, a small group of patients accounted for a disproportionate number of future ACVs. Copyright © 2016 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction of initiation and duration of breast-feeding for neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Lessen, Rachelle; Crivelli-Kovach, Andrea

    2007-01-01

    Women who desire to breast-feed their sick newborns often encounter obstacles, including insufficient support and education as well as unsupportive hospital practices. The purpose of this study was to describe maternal, neonatal, and outside influences associated with the intention, initiation, and duration of breast-feeding for women whose newborns were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. One hundred mothers were interviewed. Most mothers (67%) intended to breast-feed exclusively and this was significantly related to maternal characteristics such as age, education, parity, smoking and marital status, pre-breast-feeding experience, and the influences of the neonate's father and prenatal education. Seventy-eight mothers initiated pumping. Initiation was significantly related to maternal education, smoking, parity, previous breast-feeding experience, the neonate's physician, the neonate's father, and postpartum breast-feeding education. Fifty-four mothers were followed up by telephone after discharge until weaning. Thirty percent were exclusively breast-feeding at 2 weeks after discharge, and 15% were breast-feeding at 1 year. Duration of breast-feeding was significantly associated with education, marital status, ethnicity, income, assistance from nurses and lactation consultants, and feeding method along with milk type and milk volume at discharge. Increased family support, timely breast-feeding information, and a supportive neonatal intensive care unit environment are needed for women to succeed in breast-feeding their hospitalized newborns.

  19. Managers’ Practices Related to Work–Family Balance Predict Employee Cardiovascular Risk and Sleep Duration in Extended Care Settings

    PubMed Central

    Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2012-01-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work–family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work–family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work–family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work–family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work–family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work–family score. Managers’ attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk. PMID:20604637

  20. Managers' practices related to work-family balance predict employee cardiovascular risk and sleep duration in extended care settings.

    PubMed

    Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2010-07-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work-family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work-family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work-family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work-family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work-family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work-family score. Managers' attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk.

  1. Accuracy of diagnoses predicted from a simple patient questionnaire stratified by the duration of general ambulatory training: an observational study.

    PubMed

    Uehara, Takanori; Ikusaka, Masatomi; Ohira, Yoshiyuki; Ohta, Mitsuyasu; Noda, Kazutaka; Tsukamoto, Tomoko; Takada, Toshihiko; Miyahara, Masahito

    2013-01-01

    To compare the diagnostic accuracy of diseases predicted from patient responses to a simple questionnaire completed prior to examination by doctors with different levels of ambulatory training in general medicine. Before patient examination, five trained physicians, four short-term-trained residents, and four untrained residents examined patient responses to a simple questionnaire and then indicated, in rank order according to their subjective confidence level, the diseases they predicted. Final diagnosis was subsequently determined from hospital records by mentor physicians 3 months after the first patient visit. Predicted diseases and final diagnoses were codified using the International Classification of Diseases version 10. A "correct" diagnosis was one where the predicted disease matched the final diagnosis code. A total of 148 patient questionnaires were evaluated. The Herfindahl index was 0.024, indicating a high degree of diversity in final diagnoses. The proportion of correct diagnoses was high in the trained group (96 of 148, 65%; residual analysis, 4.4) and low in the untrained group (56 of 148, 38%; residual analysis, -3.6) (χ (2)=22.27, P<0.001). In cases of correct diagnosis, the cumulative number of correct diagnoses showed almost no improvement, even when doctors in the three groups predicted ≥4 diseases. Doctors who completed ambulatory training in general medicine while treating a diverse range of diseases accurately predicted diagnosis in 65% of cases from limited written information provided by a simple patient questionnaire, which proved useful for diagnosis. The study also suggests that up to three differential diagnoses are appropriate for diagnostic prediction, while ≥4 differential diagnoses barely improved the diagnostic accuracy, regardless of doctors' competence in general medicine. If doctors can become able to predict the final diagnosis from limited information, the correct diagnostic outcome may improve and save further

  2. Accuracy of diagnoses predicted from a simple patient questionnaire stratified by the duration of general ambulatory training: an observational study

    PubMed Central

    Uehara, Takanori; Ikusaka, Masatomi; Ohira, Yoshiyuki; Ohta, Mitsuyasu; Noda, Kazutaka; Tsukamoto, Tomoko; Takada, Toshihiko; Miyahara, Masahito

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To compare the diagnostic accuracy of diseases predicted from patient responses to a simple questionnaire completed prior to examination by doctors with different levels of ambulatory training in general medicine. Participants and methods Before patient examination, five trained physicians, four short-term-trained residents, and four untrained residents examined patient responses to a simple questionnaire and then indicated, in rank order according to their subjective confidence level, the diseases they predicted. Final diagnosis was subsequently determined from hospital records by mentor physicians 3 months after the first patient visit. Predicted diseases and final diagnoses were codified using the International Classification of Diseases version 10. A “correct” diagnosis was one where the predicted disease matched the final diagnosis code. Results A total of 148 patient questionnaires were evaluated. The Herfindahl index was 0.024, indicating a high degree of diversity in final diagnoses. The proportion of correct diagnoses was high in the trained group (96 of 148, 65%; residual analysis, 4.4) and low in the untrained group (56 of 148, 38%; residual analysis, −3.6) (χ2=22.27, P<0.001). In cases of correct diagnosis, the cumulative number of correct diagnoses showed almost no improvement, even when doctors in the three groups predicted ≥4 diseases. Conclusion Doctors who completed ambulatory training in general medicine while treating a diverse range of diseases accurately predicted diagnosis in 65% of cases from limited written information provided by a simple patient questionnaire, which proved useful for diagnosis. The study also suggests that up to three differential diagnoses are appropriate for diagnostic prediction, while ≥4 differential diagnoses barely improved the diagnostic accuracy, regardless of doctors’ competence in general medicine. If doctors can become able to predict the final diagnosis from limited information, the correct

  3. Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

    PubMed

    Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

    2014-01-29

    Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

  4. Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2006-01-01

    The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These

  5. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    PubMed

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  6. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    PubMed

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk factors that predict future onset of each DSM-5 eating disorder: Predictive specificity in high-risk adolescent females.

    PubMed

    Stice, Eric; Gau, Jeff M; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Because no single report has examined risk factors that predict future onset each type of eating disorder and core symptom dimensions that crosscut disorders, we addressed these aims to advance knowledge regarding risk factor specificity. Data from 3 prevention trials that targeted young women with body dissatisfaction (N = 1,272; Mage = 18.5, SD = 4.2) and collected annual diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to identify predictors of subthreshold/threshold anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD). Negative affect and functional impairment predicted onset of all eating disorders. Thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, overeating, and mental health care predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold BN, BED, and PD; positive thinness expectations, denial of cost of pursuing the thin ideal, and fasting predicted onset of 2 of these 3 disorders. Similar risk factors predicted core eating disorder symptom onset. Low BMI and dieting specifically predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold AN or low BMI. Only a subset of factors showed unique predictive effects in multivariate models, likely due to moderate correlations between the risk factors (M r = .14). Results provide support for the theory that pursuit of the thin ideal and the resulting body dissatisfaction, dieting, and unhealthy weight control behaviors increase risk for binge/purge spectrum eating disorders, but suggest that youth who are inherently lean, rather than purposely pursuing the thin ideal, are at risk for AN. Impaired interpersonal functioning and negative affect are transdiagnostic risk factors, suggesting these factors should be targeted in prevention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

    1997-01-01

    At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

  9. EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE.

    PubMed

    Marroquín, Brett; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

    2015-02-01

    Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals' tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls-and on positive emotion less-independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression.

  10. Iowa Gambling Task scores predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with stimulant dependence.

    PubMed

    Nejtek, Vicki A; Kaiser, Kathryn A; Zhang, Bin; Djokovic, Marija

    2013-12-30

    Poor decision-making is associated with poor recovery in persons with bipolar disorder and drug relapse in persons with stimulant dependence. Cognitive predictors of stimulant use in those with comorbid bipolar and stimulant dependence are surprisingly absent. Our goal was to determine if a single baseline assessment of decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT) would predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with comorbid stimulant dependence. Ninety-four men and women of multiple race/ethnic origins consented to participate in a 20-week study. Data analyses were performed on 63 comorbid bipolar outpatients completing at least four study weeks and 28 cocaine dependent volunteers without a mood disorder who participated as cocaine controls. There were no significant differences in IGT scores between comorbid patients and cocaine controls. In the comorbid group, IGT scores significantly predicted future drug use during the study. Age, sex, race, years of mental illness, or mood state did not significantly influence IGT scores. This is the first longitudinal study to show that IGT scores obtained at a single baseline assessment predicts future objective drug use in comorbid bipolar disorder outpatients with cocaine or methamphetamine dependence. Evaluating decision-making with the IGT may provide clinicians with valuable insight about the trajectory of their patients' risk for future drug use. These data suggest a need to augment existing treatment with cognitive restructuring to prevent slips and relapses in comorbid bipolar patients. The lack of a bipolar control group and a modest sample size may limit data interpretations.

  11. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    PubMed

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2017-01-20

    The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA Draft, however its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and three-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data via PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. Per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p < 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  12. Temperament and parenting during the first year of life predict future child conduct problems.

    PubMed

    Lahey, Benjamin B; Van Hulle, Carol A; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D

    2008-11-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4-13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation when infant temperament was controlled. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions.

  13. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    PubMed

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  14. [Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)].

    PubMed

    Hashimoto, Shuji; Kawado, Miyuki; Yamada, Hiroya; Seko, Rumi; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hayakawa, Takehito; Hayashi, Masayuki; Kato, Masahiro; Noda, Tatsuya; Ojima, Toshiyuki; Tomata, Yasutake; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2013-01-01

    We attempted to predict health expectancy in Japan for the period between 2011 and 2020, considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term) that future gains in health expectancy be larger than in life expectancy. We used data from Japanese national statistics. Health expectancy between 2011 and 2020 was predicted using the Sullivan method under the assumption that future mortality was equal to the estimate in Population Projections for Japan (January 2012), and under three scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The numbers of expected years without activity limitation at birth for males and females in 2020 were predicted as 71.2 and 74.3, respectively, under the scenario that prevalence of activity limitation was constant since 2010; 71.4 and 74.5 under the scenario that the prevalence followed the recent trend; and 71.7 and 74.9 under the scenario that the prevalence decreased with such a rate that future gains in health expectancy were equal to in life expectancy. The rate of decrease in the prevalence in 2010-2020 in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.95 in males and 0.96 in females. The numbers of expected years with subjective well-being at birth in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 69.5 and 71.2 in males and between 72.9 and 74.6 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.96 in males and 0.97 in females. The numbers of expected years without care needs at age 65 in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 18.0-18.2 in males and between 21.2-21.5 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.90 in males and 0.91 in females. The health expectancy in 2011-2020 was predicted under some scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The rate of decrease in the future prevalence of bad health status was estimated with a view to the accomplishment of the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term).

  15. Residual forefoot deformity predicts the need for future surgery in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting.

    PubMed

    Hosseinzadeh, Pooya; Peterson, Erik D; Walker, Janet; Muchow, Ryan D; Iwinski, Henry J; Talwalkar, Vishwas R; Milbrandt, Todd A

    2016-03-01

    Tibialis anterior tendon transfer (TATT) is performed for treatment of recurrent clubfeet. We investigated the predictability of residual adductus on the future need for TATT. A retrospective review of 143 patients with clubfoot was performed. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 with a history of TATT and group 2 with no TATT. Heel-forefoot angle (HFA) was measured. HFA was compared between the groups. HFA was significantly different between groups 1 and 2. Residual adductus deformity in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting is a risk factor for future need for surgical treatment.

  16. Predicting future clinical changes of MCI patients using longitudinal and multimodal biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Daoqiang; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of clinical changes of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, including both qualitative change (i.e., conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD)) and quantitative change (i.e., cognitive scores) at future time points, is important for early diagnosis of AD and for monitoring the disease progression. In this paper, we propose to predict future clinical changes of MCI patients by using both baseline and longitudinal multimodality data. To do this, we first develop a longitudinal feature selection method to jointly select brain regions across multiple time points for each modality. Specifically, for each time point, we train a sparse linear regression model by using the imaging data and the corresponding clinical scores, with an extra 'group regularization' to group the weights corresponding to the same brain region across multiple time points together and to allow for selection of brain regions based on the strength of multiple time points jointly. Then, to further reflect the longitudinal changes on the selected brain regions, we extract a set of longitudinal features from the original baseline and longitudinal data. Finally, we combine all features on the selected brain regions, from different modalities, for prediction by using our previously proposed multi-kernel SVM. We validate our method on 88 ADNI MCI subjects, with both MRI and FDG-PET data and the corresponding clinical scores (i.e., MMSE and ADAS-Cog) at 5 different time points. We first predict the clinical scores (MMSE and ADAS-Cog) at 24-month by using the multimodality data at previous time points, and then predict the conversion of MCI to AD by using the multimodality data at time points which are at least 6-month ahead of the conversion. The results on both sets of experiments show that our proposed method can achieve better performance in predicting future clinical changes of MCI patients than the conventional methods.

  17. Does meal duration predict amount consumed in lone diners? An evaluation of the time-extension hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Brindal, Emily; Wilson, Carlene; Mohr, Philip; Wittert, Gary

    2011-08-01

    The time-extension hypothesis has been proposed to describe why social facilitation (the tendency for presence of co-eaters to increase the amount eaten) occurs amongst groups of diners. However, it is possible that time-extension could increase the amount eaten in the absence of social effects. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess whether prolonged exposure to a food environment without social interaction could increase consumption. Lone diners (n=141) were observed eating in a fast food environment. The items consumed, meal duration, estimated demographics (sex, weight status and age) and whether or not the participant was reading were recorded unobtrusively. Lone diners who were reading spent longer eating (M=17.36; SD=8.23) than those who were not (M=8.88; SD=5.47), but energy intake was less than 200 kJ greater, and not overall related to time spent eating. The fact that time-extension did not alter the amount eaten in lone diners is discussed in the context of previous studies and the theory of social facilitation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Longer epilepsy duration and multiple lobe involvement predict worse seizure outcomes for patients with refractory temporal lobe epilepsy associated with neurocysticercosis.

    PubMed

    Meguins, Lucas Crociati; Adry, Rodrigo Antônio Rocha da Cruz; Silva Júnior, Sebastião Carlos da; Pereira, Carlos Umberto; Oliveira, Jean Gonçalves de; Morais, Dionei Freitas de; Araújo Filho, Gerardo Maria de; Marques, Lúcia Helena Neves

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the surgical outcomes of temporal lobe epilepsy associated with hippocampal sclerosis (TLE-HS) and neurocysticercosis (NCC). A retrospective investigation of patients with TLE-HS was conducted in a tertiary center. Seventy-nine (62.2%), 37 (29.1%), 6 (4.7%), and 5 (3.9%) patients were Engel class I, II, III, and IV, respectively. Fifty-two (71.2%) patients with epilepsy durations ≤ 10 years prior to surgery were seizure-free 1 year after the operation compared to 27 (50.0%) patients with epilepsy durations > 10 years (p = 0.0121). Forty-three (72.9%) patients with three or fewer lobes affected by NCC were seizure-free one year after the operation, and 36 (52.9%) patients with more than three involved lobes were seizure-free after surgery (p = 0.0163). Longer epilepsy durations and multiple lobe involvement predicted worse seizure outcomes in TLE-HS plus NCC patients.

  19. Brain activity in valuation regions while thinking about the future predicts individual discount rates.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Kim, B Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-08-07

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future--specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals--predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future.

  20. The future is bright and predictable: the development of prospective life stories across childhood and adolescence.

    PubMed

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-07-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15 years imagined their future lives and produced past life stories, as well as a cultural life script (i.e., culturally shared assumptions as to the order and timing of important life events). They also produced narratives about single autobiographical events to take place in the near future or recent past. Past and prospective life story coherences developed in parallel across ages, that is, older children told more coherent life stories than younger children, irrespective of temporal direction. However, children produced more coherent stories about single events in the past than in the future. Across age groups, prospective life stories were shorter, contained more life script events and were more positive than past life stories. Life script normativity increased with age and predicted the coherence of prospective, but not of past, life stories. The findings indicate that the ability to tell coherent life stories for the past and future develops in parallel and relies on similar processes. Life script abilities might be a major factor in the development of past and prospective life story coherences but not for the development of single event story coherences.

  1. Predictions of space physics are difficult, especially when they are about the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassak, P.

    2015-12-01

    This talk is about the future of space physics, the broad field of study addressing how the sun works, its interaction with Earth and other planets via the solar wind and solar eruptions, and the region of interplanetary space out to the edge of the solar system. It is the chief field feeding into the development of tools for space weather prediction. Space physics is at an exciting - yet critical - time in its evolution. Scientifically, the capabilities afforded by new ground- and space-based observations and the rapidly increasing speed of supercomputing resources are leading to unprecedented progress in the field. Recently launched missions such as the Van Allen Probes and the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission, and upcoming missions such as Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter, will open doors to science not previously accessible through observations. Predicting the future of space physics is difficult; this talk will offer thoughts on the road forward.

  2. Mortality risk prediction models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: current scenario and future direction.

    PubMed

    Karim, Mohammed N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Alramadan, Mohammed; Hossain, Mohammed N; Billah, Baki

    2017-12-01

    Many risk prediction models are currently in use for predicting short-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This review critically appraised the methods that were used for developing these models to assess their applicability in current practice setting as well as for the necessity of up-gradation. Medline via Ovid was searched for articles published between 1946 and 2016 and EMBASE via Ovid between 1974 and 2016 to identify risk prediction models for CABG. Article selection and data extraction was conducted using the CHARMS checklist for review of prediction model studies. Association between model development methods and model's discrimination was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U-test. A total of 53 risk prediction models for short-term mortality following CABG were identified. The review found a wide variation in development methodology of risk prediction models in the field. Ambiguous predictor and outcome definition, sub-optimum sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and inefficient predictor selection technique are major issues identified in the review. Quantitative synthesis in the review showed "missing value imputation" and "adopting machine learning algorithms" may result in better discrimination power of the models. There are aspects in current risk modeling, where there is room for improvement to reflect current clinical practice. Future risk modelling needs to adopt a standardized approach to defining both outcome and predictor variables, rational treatment of missing data and robust statistical techniques to enhance performance of the mortality risk prediction.

  3. Decisions among the undecided: implicit attitudes predict future voting behavior of undecided voters.

    PubMed

    Lundberg, Kristjen B; Payne, B Keith

    2014-01-01

    Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.

  4. Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters

    PubMed Central

    Lundberg, Kristjen B.; Payne, B. Keith

    2014-01-01

    Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters. PMID:24489666

  5. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

  6. Role of Climate Change in Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Chen, W.; Seinfeld, J.

    2006-12-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate equilibrium climate change driven by changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and/or aerosols over 2000-2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. We consider only direct radiative effect of aerosols on future climate in this study. Since aerosol levels will both affect and be affected by future climate, we identify the role of aerosol-driven climate in predicting future air pollutants by performing a number of sensitivity studies. The year 2100 GHG concentrations as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Although greenhouse gases are the most important drivers of global climate change, aerosols are very influential on regional climate through absorption and scattering of solar radiation. As aerosol concentrations increase over 2000-2100, aerosol-induced cooling at the surface, increase in atmospheric stability, and reduction in precipitation are predicted to increase surface-layer concentrations of pollutants over populated areas; Aerosol-induced climate change is therefore predicted to have a positive feedback to tropospheric aerosol concentrations. We also compare the effect of GHG-driven climate on atmospheric composition with that of aerosol-driven climate. Results suggest that it is important to account for climate responses to aerosol forcing in predicting future ozone and aerosols.

  7. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    PubMed Central

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  8. Forming attitudes that predict future behavior: a meta-analysis of the attitude-behavior relation.

    PubMed

    Glasman, Laura R; Albarracín, Dolores

    2006-09-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude-behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object.

  9. Response inhibition predicts painful task duration and performance in healthy individuals performing a cold pressor task in a motivational context.

    PubMed

    Karsdorp, P A; Geenen, R; Vlaeyen, J W S

    2014-01-01

    Long-term avoidance of painful activities has shown to be dysfunctional in chronic pain. Pain may elicit escape or avoidance responses automatically, particularly when pain-related fear is high. A conflict may arise between opposing short-term escape/avoidance goals to reduce pain and long-term approach goals to receive a reward. An inhibitory control system may resolve this conflict. It was hypothesized that reduced response inhibition would be associated with greater escape/avoidance during pain, particularly among subjects with higher pain-related fear. Response inhibition was measured with the stop-signal task, and pain-related fear with the Fear of Pain Questionnaire. Participants completed a tone-detection task (TDT) in which they could earn money while being exposed to cold pressor pain. Escape/avoidance was operationalized as the hand immersion time during a cold pressor task (CPT) and the performance on the TDT. Poorer response inhibition was associated with shorter CPT immersion duration and with worse TDT performance. Pain after the CPT was associated with pain-related fear, but not with response inhibition. No supportive evidence was found for the hypothesis that the relation between inhibition and escape/avoidance would be most pronounced for those with higher pain-related fear. In contrast, the relation between response inhibition and number of hits on the TDT was most pronounced for those with lower pain-related fear. The findings suggest that individuals with a stronger ability to inhibit responses in a stop-signal task are better able to inhibit escape/avoidance responses elicited by pain, in the service of a conflicting approach goal. © 2013 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

  10. Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

    PubMed Central

    Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

    2012-01-01

    Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

  11. FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Knudsen, Thomas B.; Keller, Douglas A.; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Eaton, David L.; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Mendrick, Donna L.; Tice, Raymond R.; Watkins, Paul B.; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

  12. Does emotional intelligence at medical school admission predict future academic performance?

    PubMed

    Humphrey-Murto, Susan; Leddy, John J; Wood, Timothy J; Puddester, Derek; Moineau, Geneviève

    2014-04-01

    Medical school admissions committees are increasingly considering noncognitive measures like emotional intelligence (EI) in evaluating potential applicants. This study explored whether scores on an EI abilities test at admissions predicted future academic performance in medical school to determine whether EI could be used in making admissions decisions. The authors invited all University of Ottawa medical school applicants offered an interview in 2006 and 2007 to complete the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso EI Test (MSCEIT) at the time of their interview (105 and 101, respectively), then again at matriculation (120 and 106, respectively). To determine predictive validity, they correlated MSCEIT scores to scores on written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) administered during the four-year program. They also correlated MSCEIT scores to the number of nominations for excellence in clinical performance and failures recorded over the four years. The authors found no significant correlations between MSCEIT scores and written examination scores or number of failures. The correlations between MSCEIT scores and total OSCE scores ranged from 0.01 to 0.35; only MSCEIT scores at matriculation and OSCE year 4 scores for the 2007 cohort were significantly correlated. Correlations between MSCEIT scores and clinical nominations were low (range 0.12-0.28); only the correlation between MSCEIT scores at matriculation and number of clinical nominations for the 2007 cohort were statistically significant. EI, as measured by an abilities test at admissions, does not appear to reliably predict future academic performance. Future studies should define the role of EI in admissions decisions.

  13. Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

    PubMed Central

    Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

  14. What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

    PubMed

    Heinrichs, Bert

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

  15. Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

  16. Testosterone response to courtship predicts future paternal behavior in the California mouse, Peromyscus californicus

    PubMed Central

    Gleason, Erin D.; Marler, Catherine A.

    2009-01-01

    In the monogamous and biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus), paternal care is critical for maximal offspring survival. Animals form pair bonds and do not engage in extrapair matings, and thus female evaluation of paternal quality during courtship is likely to be advantageous. We hypothesized that male endocrine or behavioral response to courtship interactions would be predictive of future paternal behavior. To test this hypothesis, we formed 20 pairs of California mice, and evaluated their behavior during the first hour of courtship interactions and again following the birth of young. We also collected blood from males at baseline, 1-hr after pairing, 3-weeks paired, and when young were four days old to measure testosterone (T). We found that male T-response to courtship interactions predicted future paternal behavior, specifically the amount of time he huddled over young when challenged by the temporary removal of his mate. Males that mounted T increases at courtship also approached pups more quickly during this challenge than males who had a significant decrease in T at courtship. Proximity of the male and female during courtship predicted paternal huddling during a 1-hr observation, and a multiple regression analysis revealed that courtship behavior was also predictive of birth latency. We speculate that male T-response to a female in P. californicus is an honest indicator of paternal quality, and if detectable by females could provide a basis for evaluation during mate choice. PMID:19833131

  17. Predicting the future from the past: An old problem from a modern perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cecconi, F.; Cencini, M.; Falcioni, M.; Vulpiani, A.

    2012-11-01

    The idea of predicting the future from the knowledge of the past is quite natural, even when dealing with systems whose equations of motion are not known. This long-standing issue is revisited in the light of modern ergodic theory of dynamical systems and becomes particularly interesting from a pedagogical perspective due to its close link with Poincaré's recurrence. Using such a connection, a very general result of ergodic theory—Kac's lemma—can be used to establish the intrinsic limitations to the possibility of predicting the future from the past. In spite of a naive expectation, predictability is hindered more by the effective number of degrees of freedom of a system than by the presence of chaos. If the effective number of degrees of freedom becomes large enough, whether the system is chaotic or not, predictions turn out to be practically impossible. The discussion of these issues is illustrated with the help of the numerical study of simple models.

  18. Testosterone response to courtship predicts future paternal behavior in the California mouse, Peromyscus californicus.

    PubMed

    Gleason, Erin D; Marler, Catherine A

    2010-02-01

    In the monogamous and biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus), paternal care is critical for maximal offspring survival. Animals form pair bonds and do not engage in extrapair matings, and thus female evaluation of paternal quality during courtship is likely to be advantageous. We hypothesized that male endocrine or behavioral response to courtship interactions would be predictive of future paternal behavior. To test this hypothesis, we formed 20 pairs of California mice, and evaluated their behavior during the first hour of courtship interactions and again following the birth of young. We also collected blood from males at baseline, 1 hr after pairing, 3 weeks paired, and when young were 4 days old to measure testosterone (T). We found that male T-response to courtship interactions predicted future paternal behavior, specifically the amount of time he huddled over young when challenged by the temporary removal of his mate. Males that mounted T increases at courtship also approached pups more quickly during this challenge than males who had a significant decrease in T at courtship. Proximity of the male and female during courtship predicted paternal huddling during a 1-hr observation, and a multiple regression analysis revealed that courtship behavior was also predictive of birth latency. We speculate that male T-response to a female in P. californicus is an honest indicator of paternal quality, and if detectable by females could provide a basis for evaluation during mate choice.

  19. Futurism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  20. Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

    PubMed

    Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

    2016-03-01

    Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health.

  1. Nonperturbative relativistic approach to pion form factors: Predictions for future JLab experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Krutov, A. F.; Troitsky, V. E.; Tsirova, N. A.

    2009-11-15

    Some predictions concerning possible results of the future experiments at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) on the pion form factor F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}) are made. The calculations exploit the method proposed previously by the authors and based on the instant-form Poincare invariant approach to pions, considered as quark-antiquark systems. This model has predicted with surprising accuracy the values of F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}), which were measured later in JLab experiments. The results are almost independent from the form of wave function. The pion mean square radius and the decay constant f{sub {pi}} also agree with experimental values. The model gives powerlike asymptotic behavior of F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}) at high momentum transfer in agreement with QCD predictions.

  2. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    PubMed Central

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J. F.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N < 10,000) the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially. PMID:26273586

  3. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics.

    PubMed

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J F

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N < 10,000) the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  4. Predicting climate change impacts on the amount and duration of autumn colors in a New England forest.

    PubMed

    Archetti, Marco; Richardson, Andrew D; O'Keefe, John; Delpierre, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.

  5. Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

    PubMed

    Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

    2015-01-01

    Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Uncertain future soil carbon dynamics under global change predicted by models constrained by total carbon measurements.

    PubMed

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Sun, Osbert J

    2017-01-23

    Pool-based carbon (C) models are widely applied to predict soil C dynamics under global change and infer underlying mechanisms. However, it is unclear about the credibility of model-predicted C pool size, decay rate (k) and/or microbial C use efficiency (e) as only data on bulked total C is usually available for model-constraining. Using observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), we constrained a two-pool model using simulated datasets of total soil C dynamics under topical hypotheses on responses of soil C dynamics to warming and elevated CO2 (i.e., global change scenarios). The results indicated that the model predicted great uncertainties in C pool size, k and e under all global change scenarios, resulting in the difficulty to correctly infer the presupposed "real" values of those parameters that are used to generate the simulated total soil C for constraining the model. Furthermore, the model using the constrained parameters generated divergent future soil C dynamics. Compared with the predictions using the presupposed real parameters (i.e., the real future C dynamics), the percentage uncertainty in 100-year predictions using the constrained parameters was up to 45% depending on global change scenarios and data availability for model-constraining. Such great uncertainty was mainly due to the high collinearity among the model parameters. Using pool-based models, we argue that soil C pool size, k and/or e and their responses to global change have to be estimated explicitly and empirically, rather than through model-fitting, in order to accurately predict C dynamics and infer underlying mechanisms. The OSSE approach provides a powerful way to identify data requirement for the new generation of model development and test model performance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  7. Time to Pregnancy: A Computational Method for Using the Duration of Non-Conception for Predicting Conception

    PubMed Central

    Sozou, Peter D.; Hartshorne, Geraldine M.

    2012-01-01

    An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple's future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple's fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple's chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple's expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility. PMID:23056338

  8. Baseline risk stratification or duration of prior therapy predicts prognosis in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with axitinib.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Ryuichi; Mikami, Shuji; Takamatsu, Kimiharu; Shinojima, Toshiaki; Kikuchi, Eiji; Oya, Mototsugu

    2017-09-18

    To elucidate the clinical prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) treated with axitinib. A total of 58 patients were retrospectively analyzed. All patients received axitinib treatment for mRCC at Keio University hospital in Japan. Baseline clinical factors and on treatment adverse events were assessed to predict survival. The median progression free survival (PFS) for axitinib treatment was 10.9 months (95% CI 5.8-13.5), and the median overall survival (OS) from the start of axitinib treatment was 39.8 months (95% CI 25.9-NR), respectively. The PFS (P < 0.0001) and OS (P = 0.0022) were significantly correlated with the International mRCC Database Consortium (IMDC) classification, respectively. The PFS and OS were significantly longer in patients who received longer prior treatment (P = 0.0424 and 0.0067, respectively). On-treatment hypertension, hand foot syndrome and hypothyroidism were associated with longer PFS (P = 0.0002, 0.0055 and 0.0290, respectively). On-treatment hypertension, diarrhea, and hand foot syndrome were associated with longer OS (P = 0.0004, 0.0036 and 0.0115, respectively). Baseline and on treatment factors are identified as prognostic markers in mRCC patients treated with axitinib. Our findings might be helpful for clinicians to select the best treatment to individual patients.

  9. Predicting the future by explaining the past: constraining carbon-climate feedback using contemporary observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The carbon-climate community has an historic opportunity to make a step-function improvement in climate prediction by using regional constraints to improve mechanistic model representation of carbon cycle processes. Interactions among atmospheric CO2, global biogeochemistry, and physical climate constitute leading sources of uncertainty in future climate. First-order differences among leading models of these processes produce differences in climate as large as differences in aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and fossil fuel combustion. Emergent constraints based on global observations of interannual variations provide powerful constraints on model parameterizations. Additional constraints can be defined at regional scales. Organized intercomparison experiments have shown that uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback arise primarily from model representations of the dependence of photosynthesis on CO2 and drought stress and the dependence of decomposition on temperature. Just as representations of net carbon fluxes have benefited from eddy flux, ecosystem manipulations, and atmospheric CO2, component carbon fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, disturbance) can be constrained at regional scales using new observations. Examples include biogeochemical tracers such as isotopes and carbonyl sulfide as well as remotely-sensed parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence and biomass. Innovative model evaluation experiments will be needed to leverage the information content of new observations to improve process representations as well as to provide accurate initial conditions for coupled climate model simulations. Successful implementation of a comprehensive benchmarking program could have a huge impact on understanding and predicting future climate change.

  10. Automatic mental associations predict future choices of undecided decision-makers.

    PubMed

    Galdi, Silvia; Arcuri, Luciano; Gawronski, Bertram

    2008-08-22

    Common wisdom holds that choice decisions are based on conscious deliberations of the available information about choice options. On the basis of recent insights about unconscious influences on information processing, we tested whether automatic mental associations of undecided individuals bias future choices in a manner such that these choices reflect the evaluations implied by earlier automatic associations. With the use of a computer-based, speeded categorization task to assess automatic mental associations (i.e., associations that are activated unintentionally, difficult to control, and not necessarily endorsed at a conscious level) and self-report measures to assess consciously endorsed beliefs and choice preferences, automatic associations of undecided participants predicted changes in consciously reported beliefs and future choices over a period of 1 week. Conversely, for decided participants, consciously reported beliefs predicted changes in automatic associations and future choices over the same period. These results indicate that decision-makers sometimes have already made up their mind at an unconscious level, even when they consciously indicate that they are still undecided.

  11. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-04-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of

  12. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-07-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the

  13. Feather and faecal corticosterone concentrations predict future reproductive decisions in harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus)

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Warren K.; Bate, Lisa J.; Landry, Devin W.; Chastel, Olivier; Parenteau, Charline; Breuner, Creagh W.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding sources of reproductive variation can inform management and conservation decisions, population ecology and life-history theory. Annual reproductive variation can drive population growth rate and can be influenced by factors from across the annual cycle (known as carry-over effects). The majority of studies, however, focus solely on the role of current environmental events. Past events often influence future reproductive decisions and success but can be logistically difficult to collect and quantify, especially in migratory species. Recent work indicates that glucocorticoids may prove good indicators to evaluate carry-over effects across life-history transitions. Here, we evaluated three different measures of glucocorticoid physiology (feathers, faeces and plasma) to evaluate the predictability of future breeding decision in the harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus). We collected tail and back feathers, plasma and faeces for glucocorticoid analysis, and fitted female harlequin ducks with very high-frequency transmitters to track their breeding decisions. Both back feathers (moulted immediately before the current season) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolites were identified as important predictive factors of reproductive decisions; high concentrations of glucocorticoid metabolites in back feathers and faeces predicted a higher likelihood of reproductive deferral for the year. Although back and tail feather corticosterone concentrations were correlated, tail feathers (moulted at the end of the previous breeding season) did not predict breeding decisions. Plasma corticosterone concentrations were collected over too broad a time range after capture to be useful in this study. This study demonstrates the utility of non-invasive corticosterone metrics in predicting breeding decisions and supports the use of feathers to measure carry-over effects in migratory birds. With this technique, we identified the prenuptial moult as an important life

  14. Walking ability to predict future cognitive decline in old adults: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Kikkert, Lisette H J; Vuillerme, Nicolas; van Campen, Jos P; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Lamoth, Claudine J

    2016-05-01

    Early identification of individuals at risk for cognitive decline may facilitate the selection of those who benefit most from interventions. Current models predicting cognitive decline include neuropsychological and/or biological markers. Additional markers based on walking ability might improve accuracy and specificity of these models because motor and cognitive functions share neuroanatomical structures and psychological processes. We reviewed the relationship between walking ability at one point of (mid) life and cognitive decline at follow-up. A systematic literature search identified 20 longitudinal studies. The average follow-up time was 4.5 years. Gait speed quantified walking ability in most studies (n=18). Additional gait measures (n=4) were step frequency, variability and step-length. Despite methodological weaknesses, results revealed that gait slowing (0.68-1.1 m/sec) preceded cognitive decline and the presence of dementia syndromes (maximal odds and hazard ratios of 10.4 and 11.1, respectively). The results indicate that measures of walking ability could serve as additional markers to predict cognitive decline. However, gait speed alone might lack specificity. We recommend gait analysis, including dynamic gait parameters, in clinical evaluations of patients with suspected cognitive decline. Future studies should focus on examining the specificity and accuracy of various gait characteristics to predict future cognitive decline.

  15. Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

    PubMed Central

    Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

  16. Predicting current and future peatmoss drought stress: Impact of hydrological complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijp, Jelmer; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd

    2016-04-01

    Northern peatlands sequester enormous amounts of carbon and therefore represent a carbon store of global importance. The vegetation in northern peatlands is dominated by peat-forming bryophytes of the genus Sphagnum. The growth of this carbon fixer, and hence its carbon uptake, strongly depends on the moisture availability in the living moss layer, which is a function of both water table and rewetting by rain. Peatland hydrology models are used to predict how changes in climate may modify the future water balance of peatmoss carpets and influence associated carbon and energy balances. These models, however, differ considerably in the number and type of processes included, which will have yet unknown consequences for peatland drought predictions in a future climate. Here, we assessed the importance of rainwater storage and peat volume change for predicting peatmoss drought projections in northern peatlands using an ensemble of downscaled, bias-corrected climate scenarios for current (1991 - 2020) and future (2061 - 2090) climate. Peatmoss drought projections were compared among four model variants with or without rainwater storage in the peatmoss carpet and peat volume change, which are considered as two important hydrological feedbacks controlling moss moisture availability. The performance of the four model variants was assessed using field data from a site in northern Sweden (Degerö Stormyr, 64°N 19°E). Our results show that adding rainwater storage in the moss layer as well as peat volume change significantly improved model performance; the most complex model had best model performance. Compared to the reference model, including both model extensions reduced the predicted drought frequency experienced by peatmoss with around 50%. Moreover, projected climate change is expected to reduce predicted peatmoss drought stress with about 20% for the studied site. In conclusion, this study shows that including rainwater storage in the peatmoss layer and/or peat volume

  17. Role of Future Climate-induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions in Predictions of Future Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Liao, H.; Wang, H.

    2008-12-01

    An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model, the BIOME4, is coupled with a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols (SOA). The vegetation-chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by climate-induced changes in natural vegetation and consequently in biogenic emissions. We simulate differences between years 2000 and 2100. Equilibrium climate change over 2000-2100 is driven by changes in long-lived greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone, and anthropogenic aerosols. The year 2100 concentrations of greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the IPCC scenario A2. Global biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpene are estimated to be, respectively, 504 and 133 Tg C yr-1 with present-day climatological and land-cover conditions, 868 and 255 Tg C yr-1 with year 2100 climate but present-day land-cover, as well as 885 and 301 Tg C yr-1 with both year 2100 climate and natural vegetation. Climate-induced changes in natural vegetation are shown to be important for simulations of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, especially for nitrate and SOA. The global burden of biogenic SOA is predicted to double between present-day and year 2100. We compare the direct radiative forcing by SOA with the forcing values of other anthropogenic aerosols.

  18. [Fertility rate and the prediction of future population size in Shaanxi province].

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei-hua; Fan, Xiao-jing; Liu, Ru-ru; Dang, Shao-nong

    2013-06-01

    To analyze the fertility rate and to estimate the future population size of Shaanxi province, based on data from the sixth national population census. Fertility rate curve was used to analyze the fertility model and the abbreviated life table. The actual fertility rate was used as the main way to predict the future population size. General fertility rate was analyzed by factor analysis approach. The total fertility rate of Shaanxi province was 1.05 in 2010 while age-specific fertility rate contributed 101.27% to the general fertility rate. The expected population sizes would be 38 122 474 in 2015, 38 432 931 in 2020 and 38 121 904 in 2025 respectively. Birthrate would become lower and the population size appearing a negative increase in the year 2020, in Shaanxi province.

  19. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, Damien A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Alroy, John; Saltré, Frédérik; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Brook, Barry W.

    2016-10-01

    Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecological outcomes in the face of global change. Opportunities include using fossils, genes and computational models to identify ecological traits that caused species to be differentially prone to regional and range-wide extinction, test if threatened-species assessment approaches work and locate habitats that support stable ecosystems in the face of shifting climates. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively.

  20. Infarct Volume Prediction by Early Magnetic Resonance Imaging in a Murine Stroke Model Depends on Ischemia Duration and Time of Imaging.

    PubMed

    Leithner, Christoph; Füchtemeier, Martina; Jorks, Devi; Mueller, Susanne; Dirnagl, Ulrich; Royl, Georg

    2015-11-01

    Despite standardization of experimental stroke models, final infarct sizes after middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) vary considerably. This introduces uncertainties in the evaluation of drug effects on stroke. Magnetic resonance imaging may detect variability of surgically induced ischemia before treatment and thus improve treatment effect evaluation. MCAO of 45 and 90 minutes induced brain infarcts in 83 mice. During, and 3 and 6 hours after MCAO, we performed multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging. We evaluated time courses of cerebral blood flow, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), T1, T2, accuracy of infarct prediction strategies, and impact on statistical evaluation of experimental stroke studies. ADC decreased during MCAO but recovered completely on reperfusion after 45 and partially after 90-minute MCAO, followed by a secondary decline. ADC lesion volumes during MCAO or at 6 hours after MCAO largely determined final infarct volumes for 90 but not for 45 minutes MCAO. The majority of chance findings of final infarct volume differences in random group allocations of animals were associated with significant differences in early ADC lesion volumes for 90, but not for 45-minute MCAO. The prediction accuracy of early magnetic resonance imaging for infarct volumes depends on timing of magnetic resonance imaging and MCAO duration. Variability of the posterior communicating artery in C57Bl6 mice contributes to differences in prediction accuracy between short and long MCAO. Early ADC imaging may be used to reduce errors in the interpretation of post MCAO treatment effects on stroke volumes. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    PubMed

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2011-03-25

    The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi) is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio) forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster), we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity) predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic activities than

  2. Does Emotional Intelligence at Medical School Admission Predict Future Academic Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Leddy, John J.; Wood, Timothy J.; Puddester, Derek; Moineau, Geneviève

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Medical school admissions committees are increasingly considering noncognitive measures like emotional intelligence (EI) in evaluating potential applicants. This study explored whether scores on an EI abilities test at admissions predicted future academic performance in medical school to determine whether EI could be used in making admissions decisions. Method The authors invited all University of Ottawa medical school applicants offered an interview in 2006 and 2007 to complete the Mayer–Salovey–Caruso EI Test (MSCEIT) at the time of their interview (105 and 101, respectively), then again at matriculation (120 and 106, respectively). To determine predictive validity, they correlated MSCEIT scores to scores on written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) administered during the four-year program. They also correlated MSCEIT scores to the number of nominations for excellence in clinical performance and failures recorded over the four years. Results The authors found no significant correlations between MSCEIT scores and written examination scores or number of failures. The correlations between MSCEIT scores and total OSCE scores ranged from 0.01 to 0.35; only MSCEIT scores at matriculation and OSCE year 4 scores for the 2007 cohort were significantly correlated. Correlations between MSCEIT scores and clinical nominations were low (range 0.12–0.28); only the correlation between MSCEIT scores at matriculation and number of clinical nominations for the 2007 cohort were statistically significant. Conclusions EI, as measured by an abilities test at admissions, does not appear to reliably predict future academic performance. Future studies should define the role of EI in admissions decisions. PMID:24556771

  3. Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yufeng; Hood, Wendy R

    2016-10-15

    Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  4. Antimicrobial drug resistance: "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future".

    PubMed

    Courvalin, Patrice

    2005-10-01

    Evolution of bacteria towards resistance to antimicrobial drugs, including multidrug resistance, is unavoidable because it represents a particular aspect of the general evolution of bacteria that is unstoppable. Therefore, the only means of dealing with this situation is to delay the emergence and subsequent dissemination of resistant bacteria or resistance genes. Resistance to antimicrobial drugs in bacteria can result from mutations in housekeeping structural or regulatory genes. Alternatively, resistance can result from the horizontal acquisition of foreign genetic information. The 2 phenomena are not mutually exclusive and can be associated in the emergence and more efficient spread of resistance. This review discusses the predictable future of the relationship between antimicrobial drugs and bacteria.

  5. Mathematical modeling of bacterial kinetics to predict the impact of antibiotic colonic exposure and treatment duration on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Guedj, Jeremie; Chachaty, Elisabeth; de Gunzburg, Jean; Andremont, Antoine; Mentré, France

    2014-09-01

    Fecal excretion of antibiotics and resistant bacteria in the environment are major public health threats associated with extensive farming and modern medical care. Innovative strategies that can reduce the intestinal antibiotic concentrations during treatments are in development. However, the effect of lower exposure on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted has not been quantified, making it difficult to anticipate the impact of these strategies. Here, we introduce a bacterial kinetic model to capture the complex relationships between drug exposure, loss of susceptible enterobacteria and growth of resistant strains in the feces of piglets receiving placebo, 1.5 or 15 mg/kg/day ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, for 5 days. The model could well describe the kinetics of drug susceptible and resistant enterobacteria observed during treatment, and up to 22 days after treatment cessation. Next, the model was used to predict the expected amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted over an average piglet's lifetime (150 days) when varying drug exposure and treatment duration. For the clinically relevant dose of 15 mg/kg/day for 5 days, the total amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted was predicted to be reduced by 75% and 98% when reducing treatment duration to 3 and 1 day treatment, respectively. Alternatively, for a fixed 5-days treatment, the level of resistance excreted could be reduced by 18%, 33%, 57.5% and 97% if 3, 5, 10 and 30 times lower levels of colonic drug concentrations were achieved, respectively. This characterization on in vivo data of the dynamics of resistance to antibiotics in the colonic flora could provide new insights into the mechanism of dissemination of resistance and can be used to design strategies aiming to reduce it.

  6. Antibodies to cyclic citrullinated protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate predict hand bone loss in patients with rheumatoid arthritis of short duration: a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Bøyesen, Pernille; Hoff, Mari; Odegård, Sigrid; Haugeberg, Glenn; Syversen, Silje W; Gaarder, Per I; Okkenhaug, Cecilie; Kvien, Tore K

    2009-01-01

    Radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has in several studies been shown to be predicted by serological markers widely used in daily clinical practice. The objective of this longitudinal study was to examine if these serological markers also predict hand bone mineral density (BMD) loss in patients with RA of short disease duration. 163 patients with RA of short disease duration (2.4 years) were included and followed longitudinally. Antibodies to cyclic citrullinated protein (anti-CCP), rheumatoid factor (RF), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were analysed from baseline blood-samples. Hand BMD was measured by digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) based on hand and wrist radiographs obtained at baseline and 1, 2 and 5-year follow-up. During the study period, DXR-BMD decreased by median (inter quartile range) 1.7% (4.1 to 0.4), 2.8% (5.3 to 0.9) and 5.6% (11.7 to 2.3) after 1, 2 and 5 years, respectively. Elevated baseline anti-CCP, RF, ESR and CRP levels were in univariate linear regression analyses consistently associated with DXR-BMD change at all time-points. Anti-CCP and ESR were independently associated with hand DXR-BMD in multivariate linear regression analyses. Elevated anti-CCP levels were consistent and independent predictors of loss in cortical hand bone during the study period, with the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) 2.2 (1.0 to 4.5), 2.6 (1.1 to 6.2) and 4.9 (1.4 to 16.7) for the 1, 2, and 5-year follow-up periods, respectively. Anti-CCP and ESR were found to be independent predictors of early localised BMD loss. This finding adds to the understanding of anti-CCP and ESR as important predictors of bone involvement in RA.

  7. Mathematical Modeling of Bacterial Kinetics to Predict the Impact of Antibiotic Colonic Exposure and Treatment Duration on the Amount of Resistant Enterobacteria Excreted

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Guedj, Jeremie; Chachaty, Elisabeth; de Gunzburg, Jean; Andremont, Antoine; Mentré, France

    2014-01-01

    Fecal excretion of antibiotics and resistant bacteria in the environment are major public health threats associated with extensive farming and modern medical care. Innovative strategies that can reduce the intestinal antibiotic concentrations during treatments are in development. However, the effect of lower exposure on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted has not been quantified, making it difficult to anticipate the impact of these strategies. Here, we introduce a bacterial kinetic model to capture the complex relationships between drug exposure, loss of susceptible enterobacteria and growth of resistant strains in the feces of piglets receiving placebo, 1.5 or 15 mg/kg/day ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, for 5 days. The model could well describe the kinetics of drug susceptible and resistant enterobacteria observed during treatment, and up to 22 days after treatment cessation. Next, the model was used to predict the expected amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted over an average piglet's lifetime (150 days) when varying drug exposure and treatment duration. For the clinically relevant dose of 15 mg/kg/day for 5 days, the total amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted was predicted to be reduced by 75% and 98% when reducing treatment duration to 3 and 1 day treatment, respectively. Alternatively, for a fixed 5-days treatment, the level of resistance excreted could be reduced by 18%, 33%, 57.5% and 97% if 3, 5, 10 and 30 times lower levels of colonic drug concentrations were achieved, respectively. This characterization on in vivo data of the dynamics of resistance to antibiotics in the colonic flora could provide new insights into the mechanism of dissemination of resistance and can be used to design strategies aiming to reduce it. PMID:25210849

  8. Phonological Encoding and Phonetic Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fricke, Melinda Denise

    2013-01-01

    Studies of connected speech have repeatedly shown that the contextual predictability of a word is related to its phonetic duration; more predictable words tend to be produced with shorter duration, when other factors are controlled for (Aylett & Turk, 2004, 2006; Bell et al., 2003; Bell, Brenier, Gregory, Girand, & Jurafsky, 2009; Gahl,…

  9. Phonological Encoding and Phonetic Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fricke, Melinda Denise

    2013-01-01

    Studies of connected speech have repeatedly shown that the contextual predictability of a word is related to its phonetic duration; more predictable words tend to be produced with shorter duration, when other factors are controlled for (Aylett & Turk, 2004, 2006; Bell et al., 2003; Bell, Brenier, Gregory, Girand, & Jurafsky, 2009; Gahl,…

  10. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  11. Metabolite Traits and Genetic Risk Provide Complementary Information for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Porneala, Bianca C.; Dauriz, Marco; Vassy, Jason L.; Cheng, Susan; Rhee, Eugene P.; Wang, Thomas J.; Meigs, James B.; Gerszten, Robert E.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE A genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and metabolite biomarkers have each been shown, separately, to predict incident type 2 diabetes. We tested whether genetic and metabolite markers provide complementary information for type 2 diabetes prediction and, together, improve the accuracy of prediction models containing clinical traits. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Diabetes risk was modeled with a 62-SNP GRS, nine metabolites, and clinical traits. We fit age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models to test the association of these sources of information, separately and jointly, with incident type 2 diabetes among 1,622 initially nondiabetic participants from the Framingham Offspring Study. The predictive capacity of each model was assessed by area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS Two hundred and six new diabetes cases were observed during 13.5 years of follow-up. The AUC was greater for the model containing the GRS and metabolite measurements together versus GRS or metabolites alone (0.820 vs. 0.641, P < 0.0001, or 0.820 vs. 0.803, P = 0.01, respectively). Odds ratios for association of GRS or metabolites with type 2 diabetes were not attenuated in the combined model. The AUC was greater for the model containing the GRS, metabolites, and clinical traits versus clinical traits only (0.880 vs. 0.856, P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Metabolite and genetic traits provide complementary information to each other for the prediction of future type 2 diabetes. These novel markers of diabetes risk modestly improve the predictive accuracy of incident type 2 diabetes based only on traditional clinical risk factors. PMID:24947790

  12. Constructing Positive Futures: Modeling the Relationship between Adolescents' Hopeful Future Expectations and Intentional Self Regulation in Predicting Positive Youth Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmid, Kristina L.; Phelps, Erin; Lerner, Richard M.

    2011-01-01

    Intentional self regulation and hopeful expectations for the future are theoretically-related constructs shown to lead to positive youth development (PYD). However, the nature of their relationship over time has not been tested. Therefore, this study explored the associations between hopeful future expectations and intentional self regulation in…

  13. Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-10-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas.

  14. Clinical and psychological characteristics predict future healthcare use in adults with congenital heart disease.

    PubMed

    Schoormans, Dounya; Sprangers, Mirjam A G; van Melle, Joost P; Pieper, Petronella G; van Dijk, Arie P J; Sieswerda, Gertjan T J; Hulsbergen-Zwarts, Mariët S; Plokker, Thijs Hwm; Brunninkhuis, Leo G H; Vliegen, Hubert W; Mulder, Barbara J M

    2016-02-01

    To deliver adequate care to patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), it is important to know which patients use what type of care. This knowledge is valuable, as modification of these factors may be used as means to regulate healthcare use. Our objective was to examine the predictive value of psychological characteristics for future healthcare use, independent of clinical characteristics. In total 845 adult CHD-patients participated in a longitudinal questionnaire study, with a two-year follow-up period. Linear regression analyses with negative binomial log link function were performed predicting healthcare used during the previous year. Psychological predictors were Type D personality, quality of life (QoL), depressive symptoms, trait-anxiety, happiness, optimism, and illness perceptions, independent of the number of co-morbidities, disease complexity and functional status. To control for clustering we included the variable type of centre (regional versus tertiary referral). Patients who reported more healthcare use had a complex defect, a poor functional status, no Type D personality, and a poor QoL. They moreover felt their CHD had a severe impact on their life and believed their CHD could be managed by themselves or treatment. Healthcare use is not entirely determined by disease complexity and functional status but also by psychological patient characteristics. It can by hypothesised that reducing the negative impact experienced and informing patients about strategies to manage their CHD, will modify their future healthcare use. Additional research is necessary to examine this possibility. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  15. Major Uncertainties in the Earth System: Using the Present to Help Predict the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2012-12-01

    Radiative forcing of climate over the next century may change by as much as it did during 100 centuries of deglaciation, with potentially catastrophic results for socioeconomic systems. Predicting these changes is difficult because both human and biogeophysical systems that control the forcing are themselves difficult to predict. Earth system models that simulate a broader range of climate forcing are now becoming available, but some of the most influential processes are much less constrained by observations than meteorological and physical ocean processes that have traditionally been included, so uncertainties in future climate (even for a given level of fossil fuel combustion) remains high. Three particular areas of significant uncertainty that have emerged are (1) the strength of positive feedback among circulation, drought, and forest dieback in the tropics; (2) the degree of saturation of terrestrial carbon sinks in the middle latitudes; and (3) the vulnerability of frozen organic matter in high northern latitudes. Earth system models include these effects, but lack strong observational support. Clever use of field campaigns, manipulative experiments, and diagnostic modeling is required to improve confidence in future radiative forcing, which is now dominated by these poorly-constrained mechanisms.

  16. Lower “Awake and Fed Thermogenesis” Predicts Future Weight Gain in Subjects With Abdominal Adiposity

    PubMed Central

    Piaggi, Paolo; Krakoff, Jonathan; Bogardus, Clifton; Thearle, Marie S.

    2013-01-01

    Awake and fed thermogenesis (AFT) is the energy expenditure (EE) of the nonactive fed condition above the minimum metabolic requirement during sleep and is composed of the thermic effect of food and the cost of being awake. AFT was estimated from whole-room 24-h EE measures in 509 healthy subjects (368 Native Americans and 141 whites) while subjects consumed a eucaloric diet. Follow-up data were available for 290 Native Americans (median follow-up time: 6.6 years). AFT accounted for ∼10% of 24-h EE and explained a significant portion of deviations from expected energy requirements. Energy intake was the major determinant of AFT. AFT, normalized as a percentage of intake, was inversely related to age and fasting glucose concentration and showed a nonlinear relationship with waist circumference and BMI. Spline analysis demonstrated that AFT becomes inversely related to BMI at an inflection point of 29 kg/m2. The residual variance of AFT, after accounting for covariates, predicted future weight change only in subjects with a BMI >29 kg/m2. AFT may influence daily energy balance, is reduced in obese individuals, and predicts future weight gain in these subjects. Once central adiposity develops, a blunting of AFT may occur that then contributes to further weight gain. PMID:23974925

  17. A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

    PubMed

    Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

    2010-10-01

    This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p < 0.05) and in the individual competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p < 0.05), medical knowledge (R = 0.59, p < 0.05), and practice-based learning (R = 0.49, p < 0.05). No correlation was noted in the systems-based practice, interpersonal and communication skills, or professionalism competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  18. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  19. Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

  20. Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

    PubMed

    Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W; Burnell, Owen W; Fordham, Damien A

    2012-01-01

    The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

  1. Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

    PubMed

    McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

    2011-08-01

    Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health.

  2. Predicting the future relapse of alcohol-dependent patients from structural and functional brain images.

    PubMed

    Seo, Sambu; Mohr, Johannes; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Heinz, Andreas; Obermayer, Klaus

    2015-11-01

    In alcohol dependence, individual prediction of treatment outcome based on neuroimaging endophenotypes can help to tailor individual therapeutic offers to patients depending on their relapse risk. We built a prediction model for prospective relapse of alcohol-dependent patients that combines structural and functional brain images derived from an experiment in which 46 subjects were exposed to alcohol-related cues. The patient group had been subdivided post hoc regarding relapse behavior defined as a consumption of more than 60 g alcohol for male or more than 40 g alcohol for female patients on one occasion during the 3-month assessment period (16 abstainers and 30 relapsers). Naïve Bayes, support vector machines and learning vector quantization were used to infer prediction models for relapse based on the mean and maximum values of gray matter volume and brain responses on alcohol-related cues within a priori defined regions of interest. Model performance was estimated by leave-one-out cross-validation. Learning vector quantization yielded the model with the highest balanced accuracy (79.4 percent, p < 0.0001; 90 percent sensitivity, 68.8 percent specificity). The most informative individual predictors were functional brain activation features in the right and left ventral tegmental areas and the right ventral striatum, as well as gray matter volume features in left orbitofrontal cortex and right medial prefrontal cortex. In contrast, the best pure clinical model reached only chance-level accuracy (61.3 percent). Our results indicate that an individual prediction of future relapse from imaging measurement outperforms prediction from clinical measurements. The approach may help to target specific interventions at different risk groups.

  3. Time to Follow Commands and duration of Post-traumatic Amnesia predict GOS-E Peds scores 1–2 years after TBI in children requiring inpatient rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Kimberly C.; Slomine, Beth S.; Salorio, Cynthia F.; Suskauer, Stacy J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the utility of time to follow commands (TFC) in predicting functional outcome after pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI), as assessed by an outcome measure sensitive to the range of outcomes observed after pediatric TBI, the Glasgow Outcome Scale – Extended, Pediatrics Revision (GOS-E Peds). Setting Pediatric inpatient rehabilitation hospital and associated multidisciplinary brain injury follow-up clinic. Participants 67 children with moderate-to-severe TBI (mean age at injury 10.9 years, range 3–18 years). Design Outcomes were scored retrospectively based on documentation from an outpatient follow-up evaluation one-to-two years post injury (days from injury to follow-up: mean 518, standard deviation 137). Correlations between measures of severity and functional outcome were examined. Hierarchical logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to examine predictors of outcome. Main Measures Earliest documented Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), TFC, post traumatic amnesia (PTA), total duration of impaired consciousness (TFC+PTA), GOS-E Peds. Results For the logistic regression, TFC and TFC+PTA were significant predictors of outcome above and beyond GCS. For the linear analysis, PTA was also a significant predictor of functional outcome above and beyond GCS and TFC. The overall models were very comparable, with R2 values ranging from .31 to .36 for prediction of GOS-E Peds. Conclusion Above and beyond the influence of GCS, TFC, PTA, and TFC+PTA are important predictors of later outcome after TBI. PMID:26098263

  4. Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with Nevada adolescents.

    PubMed

    Ditmyer, Marcia M; Dounis, Georgia; Howard, Katherine M; Mobley, Connie; Cappelli, David

    2011-05-20

    The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008). The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural), tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP), negative predictive value (PVN), and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

  5. Alteration of Frontal EEG Asymmetry during Tryptophan Depletion Predicts Future Depression

    PubMed Central

    Allen, John J.B.; McKnight, Katherine M.; Moreno, Francisco A.; Demaree, Heath A.; Delgado, Pedro L.

    2009-01-01

    Background Tryptophan depletion (TD) reduces brain serotonin and may induce acute depressive symptomatology, especially among those with a history of Major Depression. Depressive response to TD among euthymic patients with a history of depression also predicts future depression. Better prediction might result by assessing a putative endophenotype for depressive risk, frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) asymmetry, in the context of TD. Method Nine euthymic history-positive participants and nine controls were administered TD. Symptomatic and EEG frontal asymmetry data were collected for 6 hours following TD, and clinical status was followed for the next 12 months. Results The magnitude of TD-induced change in frontal EEG asymmetry significantly predicted the development of depression during the ensuing six to twelve months, and with greater sensitivity than symptomatic response. Limitations The results are tempered by the small sample size. Conclusions Despite the limited sample size, these preliminary results suggest that TD-induced changes in frontal EEG asymmetry may provide a more sensitive indicator of risk for imminent depression than symptomatic response to TD. PMID:18801582

  6. Can a structured, behavior-based interview predict future resident success?

    PubMed

    Strand, Eric A; Moore, Elizabeth; Laube, Douglas W

    2011-05-01

    To determine whether a structured, behavior-based applicant interview predicts future success in an obstetrics and gynecology residency program. Using a modified pre-post study design, we compared behavior-based interview scores of our residency applicants to a postmatch evaluation completed by the applicant's current residency program director. Applicants were evaluated on the following areas: academic record, professionalism, leadership, trainability/suitability for the specialty, and fit for the program. Information was obtained for 45 (63%) applicants. The overall interview score did not correlate with overall resident performance. Applicant leadership subscore was predictive of leadership performance as a resident (P = .042). Academic record was associated with patient care performance as a resident (P = .014), but only for graduates of US medical schools. Five residents changed programs; these residents had significantly lower scores for trainability/suitability for the specialty (P = .020). Behavioral interviewing can provide predictive information regarding success in an obstetrics and gynecology training program. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Using comparative analysis to teach about the nature of nonstationarity in future flood predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, S. B.; Walter, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    Comparative analysis has been a little used approach to the teaching of hydrology. Instead, hydrology is often taught by introducing fundamental principles with the assumption that they are sufficiently universal to apply across most any hydrologic system. In this paper, we illustrate the value of using comparative analysis to enhance students' insights into the degree and predictability of future non-stationarity in flood frequency analysis. Traditionally, flood frequency analysis is taught from a statistical perspective that can offer limited means of understanding the nature of non-stationarity. By visually comparing graphics of mean daily flows and annual peak discharges (plotted against Julian day) for watersheds in a variety of locales, distinct differences in the timing and nature of flooding in different regions of the US becomes readily apparent. Such differences highlight the dominant hydroclimatological drivers of different watersheds. When linked with information on the predictability of hydroclimatic drivers (hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, snowpack melt, convective events) in a changing climate, such comparative analysis provides students with an improved physical understanding of flood processes and a stronger foundation on which to make judgments about how to modify statistical techniques for making predictions in a changing climate. We envision that such comparative analyses could be incorporated into a number of other traditional hydrologic topics.

  8. Using comparative analysis to teach about the nature of nonstationarity in future flood predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, S. B.; Walter, M. T.

    2012-05-01

    Comparative analysis has been a little used approach to the teaching of hydrology. Instead, hydrology is often taught by introducing fundamental principles with the assumption that they are sufficiently universal to apply across most any hydrologic system. In this paper, we illustrate the value of using comparative analysis to enhance students' insights into the degree and predictability of future non-stationarity in flood frequency analysis. Traditionally, flood frequency analysis is taught from a statistical perspective that can offer limited means of understanding the nature of non-stationarity. By visually comparing graphics of mean daily flows and annual peak discharges (plotted against Julian day) for watersheds in a variety of locales, distinct differences in the timing and nature of flooding in different regions of the US becomes readily apparent. Such differences highlight the dominant hydroclimatological drivers of different watersheds. When linked with information on the predictability of hydroclimatic drivers (hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, snowpack melt, convective events) in a changing climate, such comparative analysis provides students with an improved physical understanding of flood processes and a stronger foundation on which to make judgments about how to modify statistical techniques for making predictions in a changing climate. We envision that such comparative analysis could be incorporated into a number of other traditional hydrologic topics.

  9. The Value of Hippocampal and Temporal Horn Volumes and Rates of Change in Predicting Future Conversion to AD

    PubMed Central

    Bartlett, Jonathan W.; Leung, Kelvin K.; Ourselin, Sebastien; Barnes, Josephine

    2013-01-01

    Hippocampal pathology occurs early in Alzheimer disease (AD), and atrophy, measured by volumes and volume changes, may predict which subjects will develop AD. Measures of the temporal horn (TH), which is situated adjacent to the hippocampus, may also indicate early changes in AD. Previous studies suggest that these metrics can predict conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD with conversion and volume change measured concurrently. However, the ability of these metrics to predict future conversion has not been investigated. We compared the abilities of hippocampal, TH, and global measures to predict future conversion from MCI to AD. TH, hippocampi, whole brain, and ventricles were measured using baseline and 12-month scans. Boundary shift integral was used to measure the rate of change. We investigated the prediction of conversion between 12 and 24 months in subjects classified as MCI from baseline to 12 months. All measures were predictive of future conversion. Local and global rates of change were similarly predictive of conversion. There was evidence that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the hippocampal atrophy rate (P=0.023) and that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the TH volume (P=0.036). Prodromal atrophy rates may be useful predictors of future conversion to sporadic AD from amnestic MCI. PMID:22760170

  10. Radiation Transport Modeling and Assessment to Better Predict Radiation Exposure, Dose, and Toxicological Effects to Human Organs on Long Duration Space Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denkins, Pamela; Badhwar, Gautam; Obot, Victor

    2000-01-01

    NASA's long-range plans include possible human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century. Such missions beyond low Earth orbit will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and the missions long, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. The focus of this study is radiation exposure to the blood-forming organs of the NASA astronauts. NASA/JSC developed the Phantom Torso Experiment for Organ Dose Measurements which housed active and passive dosimeters that would monitor and record absorbed radiation levels at vital organ locations. This experiment was conducted during the STS-9 I mission in May '98 and provided the necessary space radiation data for correlation to results obtained from the current analytical models used to predict exposure to the blood-forming organs. Numerous models (i.e., BRYNTRN and HZETRN) have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. However, new models are continually being developed and evaluated. The Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, is to be used and evaluated as a part of the research activity. It is the intent of this research effort to compare the modeled data to the findings from the STS-9 I mission; assess the accuracy and efficiency of this model; and to determine its usefulness for predicting radiation exposure and developing better guidelines for shielding requirements for long duration manned missions.

  11. Mid-Treatment Sleep Duration Predicts Clinically Significant Knee Osteoarthritis Pain reduction at 6 months: Effects From a Behavioral Sleep Medicine Clinical Trial.

    PubMed

    Salwen, Jessica K; Smith, Michael T; Finan, Patrick H

    2017-02-01

    To determine the relative influence of sleep continuity (sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, total sleep time [TST], and wake after sleep onset) on clinical pain outcomes within a trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) for patients with comorbid knee osteoarthritis and insomnia. Secondary analyses were performed on data from 74 patients with comorbid insomnia and knee osteoarthritis who completed a randomized clinical trial of 8-session multicomponent CBT-I versus an active behavioral desensitization control condition (BD), including a 6-month follow-up assessment. Data used herein include daily diaries of sleep parameters, actigraphy data, and self-report questionnaires administered at specific time points. Patients who reported at least 30% improvement in self-reported pain from baseline to 6-month follow-up were considered responders (N = 31). Pain responders and nonresponders did not differ significantly at baseline across any sleep continuity measures. At mid-treatment, only TST predicted pain response via t tests and logistic regression, whereas other measures of sleep continuity were nonsignificant. Recursive partitioning analyses identified a minimum cut-point of 382 min of TST achieved at mid-treatment in order to best predict pain improvements 6-month posttreatment. Actigraphy results followed the same pattern as daily diary-based results. Clinically significant pain reductions in response to both CBT-I and BD were optimally predicted by achieving approximately 6.5 hr sleep duration by mid-treatment. Thus, tailoring interventions to increase TST early in treatment may be an effective strategy to promote long-term pain reductions. More comprehensive research on components of behavioral sleep medicine treatments that contribute to pain response is warranted.

  12. Modeling Spatial Recharge in the Arid Southern Okanagan Basin and Impacts of Future Predicted Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Toews, M. W.

    2007-12-01

    Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of evapotranspiration rates on temperature, and potential shifts in the precipitation amounts and timing. In this study, future predicted climate change from three GCMs (CGCM1 GHG+A, CGCM3.1 A2, and HadCM3 A2) are used to evaluate the sensitivity of recharge in the Oliver region of the Okanagan Valley, south- central British Columbia, where annual precipitation is approximately 300~mm. Temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), while precipitation and solar radiation changes were estimated directly from the GCM data. Results for the region suggest that temperature will increase up to 4°C by the end of the century. Precipitation is expected to decrease in the spring, and increase in the fall. Solar radiation may decrease in the late summer. Shifts in climate, from present to future-predicted, were applied to the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator to generate daily stochastic weather series. Recharge was modeled spatially using output from the HELP hydrologic model applied to one-dimensional soil columns. An extensive valley-bottom soil database was used to determine both the spatial variation and vertical assemblage of soil horizons in the Oliver region. Soil hydraulic parameters were estimated from soil descriptions using pedotransfer functions through the ROSETTA program. Leaf area index (LAI) was estimated from ground-truthed Landsat 5 TM imagery, and surface slope was estimated from a digital elevation model. Irrigation application rates were modified for each climate scenario based on estimates of seasonal crop water demand. Daily irrigation was added to precipitation in irrigation districts using proportions of crop types along with daily climate and evapotranspiration data from LARS-WG. The two dominant crop classes are orchard (including peaches, cherries and apples) and vineyards (grapes). Recharge in

  13. An oracle: antituberculosis pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics, clinical correlation, and clinical trial simulations to predict the future.

    PubMed

    Pasipanodya, Jotam; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2011-01-01

    Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

  14. Predicting Future High-Cost Schizophrenia Patients Using High-Dimensional Administrative Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yajuan; Iyengar, Vijay; Hu, Jianying; Kho, David; Falconer, Erin; Docherty, John P; Yuen, Gigi Y

    2017-01-01

    The burden of serious and persistent mental illness such as schizophrenia is substantial and requires health-care organizations to have adequate risk adjustment models to effectively allocate their resources to managing patients who are at the greatest risk. Currently available models underestimate health-care costs for those with mental or behavioral health conditions. The study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive models for identification of future high-cost schizophrenia patients using advanced supervised machine learning methods. This was a retrospective study using a payer administrative database. The study cohort consisted of 97,862 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD9 code 295.*) from January 2009 to June 2014. Training (n = 34,510) and study evaluation (n = 30,077) cohorts were derived based on 12-month observation and prediction windows (PWs). The target was average total cost/patient/month in the PW. Three models (baseline, intermediate, final) were developed to assess the value of different variable categories for cost prediction (demographics, coverage, cost, health-care utilization, antipsychotic medication usage, and clinical conditions). Scalable orthogonal regression, significant attribute selection in high dimensions method, and random forests regression were used to develop the models. The trained models were assessed in the evaluation cohort using the regression R(2), patient classification accuracy (PCA), and cost accuracy (CA). The model performance was compared to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) model. At top 10% cost cutoff, the final model achieved 0.23 R(2), 43% PCA, and 63% CA; in contrast, the CMS-HCC model achieved 0.09 R(2), 27% PCA with 45% CA. The final model and the CMS-HCC model identified 33 and 22%, respectively, of total cost at the top 10% cost cutoff. Using advanced feature selection leveraging detailed health care, medication utilization features

  15. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  16. The UT 8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event & Future Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benecchi, Susan D.; Noll, K.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; Chanover, N.

    2013-10-01

    A mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 hours on UT 8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four telescopes: Telescopio Nationale Galileo in the Canary Islands, the du Pont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, ARC at Apache Point Observatory and the IRTF on Mauna Kea. It is the first full event observed from start to finish for this binary system. The lightcurve is consistent with two objects of similar, but perhaps not identical, size and albedo. We will present the results from this event and predictions for future events which have been refined by this and other mutual event observations obtained since the events began.

  17. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks.

    PubMed

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  18. How can Historical Responses of Amazonian Forests to Drought and Fire Inform Future Prediction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brando, P. M.; dos Santos, C.; Alencar, A.; Asner, G. P.; Coe, M. T.; Silverio, D. V.

    2014-12-01

    The responses of Amazonian forests to droughts have important implications for sustainability, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. These implications are all potentially large, diverse, and persistent. During recent years, for example, more than half of the Amazon experienced droughts that were severe enough to cause increased tree mortality, reduced tree growth, and widespread forest fires, committing to the atmosphere between 1-2% of the carbon stocks of Amazon forests. As climate and land use change, Amazon droughts may become even more frequent and severe. However, most of the existing ecosystem models used to predict potential forest trajectories in Amazonia only accounts for the effects of climate forcing, although the interaction between fires and droughts is perhaps a more direct mechanism of abrupt forest degradation, especially for the southeastern Amazon. Thus, projections of future vegetation responses to climate change in Amazonia require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and should also consider interactions of droughts, forest fires, and land-use change.

  19. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    PubMed Central

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  20. Extended-Range Forecasts at Climate Prediction Center: Current Status and Future Plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, A.

    2016-12-01

    Motivated by a user need to provide forecast information on extended-range time-scales (i.e., weeks 2-4), in recent years Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has made considerable efforts towards developing and testing the feasibility for developing the required forecasts. The forecasts targeting this particular time-scale face a unique challenge in that while the forecast skill due to atmospheric initial conditions is small (because of rapid decay in the memory associated with the atmospheric initial conditions), short time averages for which forecasts are made do not benefit from skill associated with anomalous boundary conditions either. Despite these challenges, CPC has embarked on providing an experimental outlook for weeks 3-4 average. The talk will summarize the current status of CPC's current suite of extended-range forecast products, and further, will discuss some future plans.

  1. Predicting Future Temperate and Boreal of Growing Season Start With a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaduk, J.

    2008-12-01

    Controlled ecological experiments show that temperate and boreal trees require chilling in winter for rapid leaf out in spring. If the amount of chilling falls below a species specific threshold then an exponentially increasing amount of warming is required to initiate leaf out - potentially actually delaying it in a future warmer climate. The boreal areas could be particularly affected as climate predictions indicate strong warming in these regions. Moreover, currently a large part of the land carbon sink is located in temperate and boreal regions and a changing growing season start might have a large impact on this important sink. Warming-chilling models for green-up, which have been calibrated with remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index from the years 1983-1995, indicate that in future the chilling requirements reduce the rate of advance of the start of the growing season to earlier times compared to advance rates in the last two decades. Climate scenarios with large warming (IPCC A2 scenarios) show lower advance rates of green- up to earlier times than predictions with a smaller warming (B1 scenarios) due to the reduced chilling in high warming scenarios. When incorporated into a coupled land-surface carbon cycle model based on JULES (the Joint-UK-Land Environment Simulator) the chilling requirements lead to a early growing season photosynthetic carbon up that is correspondingly lower than in simulations where the start of the growing season as simply modelled as responding to warming only. Thus the phenological response in effect provides a positive feedback to global warming.

  2. Ventral striatal signal changes represent missed opportunities and predict future choice.

    PubMed

    Büchel, Christian; Brassen, Stefanie; Yacubian, Juliana; Kalisch, Raffael; Sommer, Tobias

    2011-08-01

    Realizing one has missed an opportunity can influence decision behavior in the future, such that a large missed opportunity leads to more risk taking in the next round. To investigate the neuronal mechanism of this phenomenon we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in combination with a sequential decision task in which the magnitude of possible gains linearly increased, but at the same time the gain probability decreased. After subjects decided to stop a trial and to collect the gains, not only the chosen option (actual outcome), but also the alternative option (maximum possible gain in this round) was revealed. Our data show that a missed chance influenced volunteers' decision behavior: volunteers took more risk after rounds in which they had missed a large opportunity. This was paralleled by signal changes in a lateral area of the ventral striatum that scaled with the difference between what could have been gained and what was actually gained in this round. In addition, after gains signal changes in dopaminoceptive structures including the midbrain and ventral striatum together with the insula predicted individual choice behavior in the subsequent round. Thus, our data provide a neural mechanism for how missed opportunities influence future decisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  4. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  5. Use of Electrocardiography to Predict Future Development of Hypertension in the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Murai, Shunsuke; Yamashita, Sumiyo; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Cardiac muscle responds to increased afterload by developing hypertrophy. During the early stages of hypertension, the heart can be transiently, but frequently, exposed to increased afterload. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) assessed by electrocardiography (ECG) can be used to predict future development of hypertension. Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were calculated using ECG in 5770 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a physical checkup (age 52.7 ± 11.3 years). LVH was defined as a Sokolow–Lyon voltage of >3.8 mV or a Cornell product of >2440 mm × ms. After baseline examination, participants were followed up with the endpoint being the development of hypertension. During the median follow-up period of 1089 days (15,789 person-years), hypertension developed in 1029 participants (65.2/1000 person-years). A Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher incidence of hypertension in participants with LVH than in those without LVH as assessed by Sokolow–Lyon voltage or Cornell product (P < 0.0001 for both). The hazard ratios for incident hypertension in participants with LVH defined by Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.90, P < 0.01) and 1.34 (95% CI 1.09–1.65, P < 0.01), respectively, after adjustment for possible risk factors. Furthermore, in multivariable Cox hazard analysis, where Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were taken as continuous variables, both indices were independent predictors of future hypertension (P < 0.0001). Both Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product are novel predictors of future development of hypertension in the general population. PMID:27124047

  6. Introducing a Novel Applicant Ranking Tool to Predict Future Resident Performance: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Bowe, Sarah N; Weitzel, Erik K; Hannah, William N; Fitzgerald, Brian M; Kraus, Gregory P; Nagy, Christopher J; Harrison, Stephen A

    2017-01-01

    The purposes of this study are to (1) introduce our novel Applicant Ranking Tool that aligns with the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education competencies and (2) share our preliminary results comparing applicant rank to current performance. After a thorough literature review and multiple roundtable discussions, an Applicant Ranking Tool was created. Feasibility, satisfaction, and critiques were discussed via open feedback session. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using weighted kappa statistic (κ) and Kendall coefficient of concordance (W). Fisher's exact tests evaluated the ability of the tool to stratify performance into the top or bottom half of their class. Internal medicine and anesthesiology residents served as the pilot cohorts. The tool was considered user-friendly for both data input and analysis. Inter-rater reliability was strongest with intradisciplinary evaluation (W = 0.8-0.975). Resident performance was successfully stratified into those functioning in the upper vs. lower half of their class within the Clinical Anesthesia-3 grouping (p = 0.008). This novel Applicant Ranking Tool lends support for the use of both cognitive and noncognitive traits in predicting resident performance. While the ability of this instrument to accurately predict future resident performance will take years to answer, this pilot study suggests the instrument is worthy of ongoing investigation.

  7. Psychosocial factors and sport injuries: prediction, prevention and future research directions.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Urban; Ivarsson, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    This review provides an overview of recent theoretical and empirical developments regarding psychosocial factors related to the prediction and prevention of sport injuries, and highlights some of the most interesting areas of investigation that have been carried out in the past few years. For instance, a systematic review of the most cited and used theoretical framework in the field has recently been performed, which supports the model's suggestion that psychosocial variables, as well as psychologically based interventions, can influence injury risk among athletes. Based on substantial empirical evidence it is also shown that changes in stress and perceived recovery appear to predict injury occurrence in sport. Current studies, focusing on overuse injuries, also suggest that cultural norms and rules can be seen as factors that can indirectly influence the risk of becoming injured. Future research directions are presented such as the need for interdisciplinary injury prevention programs based on a combination of physiological and psychological interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Protein tyrosine nitration in plants: Present knowledge, computational prediction and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Kolbert, Zsuzsanna; Feigl, Gábor; Bordé, Ádám; Molnár, Árpád; Erdei, László

    2017-04-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) and related molecules (reactive nitrogen species) regulate diverse physiological processes mainly through posttranslational modifications such as protein tyrosine nitration (PTN). PTN is a covalent and specific modification of tyrosine (Tyr) residues resulting in altered protein structure and function. In the last decade, great efforts have been made to reveal candidate proteins, target Tyr residues and functional consequences of nitration in plants. This review intends to evaluate the accumulated knowledge about the biochemical mechanism, the structural and functional consequences and the selectivity of plants' protein nitration and also about the decomposition or conversion of nitrated proteins. At the same time, this review emphasizes yet unanswered or uncertain questions such as the reversibility/irreversibility of tyrosine nitration, the involvement of proteasomes in the removal of nitrated proteins or the effect of nitration on Tyr phosphorylation. The different NO producing systems of algae and higher plants raise the possibility of diversely regulated protein nitration. Therefore studying PTN from an evolutionary point of view would enrich our present understanding with novel aspects. Plant proteomic research can be promoted by the application of computational prediction tools such as GPS-YNO2 and iNitro-Tyr software. Using the reference Arabidopsis proteome, Authors performed in silico analysis of tyrosine nitration in order to characterize plant tyrosine nitroproteome. Nevertheless, based on the common results of the present prediction and previous experiments the most likely nitrated proteins were selected thus recommending candidates for detailed future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. ANTHELMINTICS: THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Richard J.; Verma, Saurabh.; Choudhary, Shivani; Kashyap, Sudhanva; Zheng, Melanie Abongwa Fudan; Robertson, Alan P.

    2015-01-01

    ‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ When we look at drugs that are used to control parasites, we see that new knowledge has been created (discovered) about their modes of action. This knowledge will allow us to predict combinations of drugs which can be used together rationally to increase the spectrum of action and to slow the development of anthelmintic resistance. In this paper we comment on some recent observations of ours on the modes of action of emodepside, diethylcarbamazine and tribendimidine. Emodepside increases the activation of a SLO-1 K+ current inhibiting movement, and diethylcarbamazine has a synergistic effect on the effect of emodepside on the SLO-1 K+ current, increasing the size of the response. The combination may be considered for further testing for therapeutic use. Tribendimidine is a selective cholinergic nematode B-subtype nAChR agonist, producing muscle depolarization and contraction. It has different subtype selectivity to levamisole and may be effective in the presence of some types of levamisole resistance. The new information about the modes of action may aid the design of rational drug combinations designed to slow the development of resistance or increase the spectrum of action. PMID:26138153

  10. Predictive factors for hypertrophy of the future remnant liver after selective portal vein embolization.

    PubMed

    de Baere, Thierry; Teriitehau, Christophe; Deschamps, Frederic; Catherine, Laurence; Rao, Pramod; Hakime, Antoine; Auperin, Anne; Goere, Diane; Elias, Dominique; Hechelhammer, Lukas

    2010-08-01

    To analyze predictive factors of hypertrophy of the nonembolized future remnant liver (FRL) after transhepatic preoperative portal vein embolization (PVE) of the liver to be resected. Age, gender, indocyanin green clearance test, chemotherapy before PVE, type of chemotherapy, operators, extent of PVE, radiofrequency ablation (RFA) associated with PVE, time delay between PVE and surgery, and platelet count were retrospectively evaluated as predictive factors for hypertrophy of FRL in 107 patients with malignant disease in noncirrhotic liver. PVE targeted the right liver lobe [n = 70] or the right liver lobe and segment IV [n = 37] when FRL/total liver volume ratio was below 25% in healthy liver or 40% in altered liver. After PVE, FRL volume significantly increased by 69%, from 344 +/- 156 cm(3) to 543 +/- 192 cm(3) (P < .0001). The degree of hypertrophy was negatively correlated with FRL volume (correlation coefficient = -0.55, P < .0001) and FRL/TFL ratio (correlation coefficient = -0.52, P < .0001) before PVE. Patients, who have undergone chemotherapy with platin agents prior to PVE, demonstrated lower hypertrophy (P = .048). Hypertrophy after PVE is inversely correlated to initial FRL volume. Hypertrophy of the liver might be influenced by the systemic chemotherapeutic received before PVE.

  11. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  12. Food Reinforcement and Parental Obesity Predict Future Weight Gain in Non-Obese Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Leonard H.; Yokum, Sonja; Feda, Denise M.; Stice, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Background Food reinforcement, the extent to which people are willing to work to earn a preferred snack food, and parental obesity are risk factors for weight gain, but there is no research comparing the predictive effects of these factors for adolescent weight gain. Methods 130 non-obese adolescents (M age = 15.2 ± 1.0; M BMI = 20.7 ± 2.0; M zBMI = 0.16 ± 0.64) at differential risk for weight gain based on parental obesity completed baseline food and money reinforcement tasks, and provided zBMI data over 2-yr follow-up. Results The number of obese (BMI ≥ 30) parents (p = 0.007) and high food reinforcement (p = 0.046) were both significant independent predictors of greater zBMI increases, controlling for age, sex, parent education and minority status. Having no obese parents or being low or average in food reinforcement was associated with reductions in zBMI, but those high in food reinforcement showed larger zBMI increases (0.102) than having one obese parent (0.025) but less than having two obese parents (0.177). Discussion Food reinforcement and parental obesity independently predict future weight gain among adolescents. It might be fruitful for obesity prevention programs to target both high risk groups. PMID:25045864

  13. Coefficient of Variation of P-Wave Duration Is a Novel Atrial Heterogeneity Index to Predict Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation After Catheter Ablation.

    PubMed

    Nakatani, Yosuke; Sakamoto, Tamotsu; Mizumaki, Koichi; Nishida, Kunihiro; Kataoka, Naoya; Tsujino, Yasushi; Yamaguchi, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Hiroshi

    2016-05-01

    Atrial conduction heterogeneity is associated with progression of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between P-wave parameters representing atrial conduction heterogeneity and AF recurrence after catheter ablation (ABL) is still unclear. Subjects of the study were 126 consecutive patients with AF (78 paroxysmal and 48 persistent) who had received ABL. Coefficient of variation of P-wave duration (CV-PWD) was determined with all 12 surface electrocardiographic leads as an index of atrial conduction heterogeneity. Rates of freedom from AF recurrence were 78% and 77% in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF, respectively, over a 12-month follow-up. CV-PWD measured before ABL was smaller in AF-free patients compared with AF-recurrent patients (0.089 ± 0.019 vs. 0.129 ± 0.042, P < 0.001). CV-PWD significantly decreased after ABL in AF-free patients, but did not change in AF-recurrent patients. CV-PWD after ABL was also smaller in AF-free patients compared with AF-recurrent patients (0.087 ± 0.025 vs. 0.133 ± 0.035, P < 0.001). In receiver operating curve analysis, CV-PWD before and after ABL achieved area under the curve of 0.829 and 0.854, respectively, for the ability to predict AF recurrence. CV-PWD correlated positively with left atrial (LA) diameter and negatively with LA appendage flow velocity. CV-PWD is a useful index to predict AF recurrence after ABL for both patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. ABL may suppress AF by decreasing atrial conduction heterogeneity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Polar predictability: exploring the influence of GCM and regional model uncertainty on future ice sheet climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusch, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating uncertainty in GCMs and regional-scale forecast models is an essential step in the development of climate change predictions. Polar-region skill is particularly important due to the potential for changes affecting both local (ice sheet) and global (sea level) environments through more frequent/intense surface melting and changes in precipitation type/amount. High-resolution, regional-scale models also use GCMs as a source of boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios, thus inheriting a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We examine inter- and intramodel uncertainty through statistics from decadal climatologies and analyses of variability based on self-organizing maps (SOMs), a nonlinear data analysis tool. We evaluate a 19-member CMIP5 subset and the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) during polar melt seasons (boreal/austral summer) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Regional-model uncertainty is examined with a subset of these GCMs driving Polar WRF simulations. Decadal climatologies relative to a reference (recent: the ERA-Interim reanalysis; future: a skillful modern GCM) identify model uncertainty in bulk, e.g., BNU-ESM is too warm, CMCC-CM too cold. While quite useful for model screening, diagnostic benefit is often indirect. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. Joint analysis of reference and test models summarizes the variability of multiple realizations of climate (all the models), benchmarks each model versus the reference (frequency analysis helps identify the patterns behind GCM bias), and places each GCM in a common context. Joint SOM analysis of CESMLE members shows how initial conditions contribute to differences in modeled climates, providing useful information about internal variability, such as contributions from each member to overall uncertainty using pattern frequencies. In the

  15. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287). Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health) approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health), or not (less than full health), was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism) retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing also significantly

  16. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    PubMed

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  17. Predicting Future Morphological Changes of Lesions from Radiotracer Uptake in 18F-FDG-PET Images

    PubMed Central

    Bagci, Ulas; Yao, Jianhua; Miller-Jaster, Kirsten; Chen, Xinjian; Mollura, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a novel computational framework to enable automated identification of texture and shape features of lesions on 18F-FDG-PET images through a graph-based image segmentation method. The proposed framework predicts future morphological changes of lesions with high accuracy. The presented methodology has several benefits over conventional qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, due to its fully quantitative nature and high accuracy in each step of (i) detection, (ii) segmentation, and (iii) feature extraction. To evaluate our proposed computational framework, thirty patients received 2 18F-FDG-PET scans (60 scans total), at two different time points. Metastatic papillary renal cell carcinoma, cerebellar hemongioblastoma, non-small cell lung cancer, neurofibroma, lymphomatoid granulomatosis, lung neoplasm, neuroendocrine tumor, soft tissue thoracic mass, nonnecrotizing granulomatous inflammation, renal cell carcinoma with papillary and cystic features, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, metastatic alveolar soft part sarcoma, and small cell lung cancer were included in this analysis. The radiotracer accumulation in patients' scans was automatically detected and segmented by the proposed segmentation algorithm. Delineated regions were used to extract shape and textural features, with the proposed adaptive feature extraction framework, as well as standardized uptake values (SUV) of uptake regions, to conduct a broad quantitative analysis. Evaluation of segmentation results indicates that our proposed segmentation algorithm has a mean dice similarity coefficient of 85.75±1.75%. We found that 28 of 68 extracted imaging features were correlated well with SUVmax (p<0.05), and some of the textural features (such as entropy and maximum probability) were superior in predicting morphological changes of radiotracer uptake regions longitudinally, compared to single intensity feature such as SUVmax. We also found that integrating textural features with SUV measurements

  18. The predictive value of general surgery application data for future resident performance.

    PubMed

    Alterman, Daniel Mark; Jones, Thomas M; Heidel, Robert E; Daley, Brian J; Goldman, Mitchell H

    2011-01-01

    The predictive value of application data for future general surgery resident performance and attrition are poorly understood. We sought to determine what variables obtained in the application process might predict future resident success. We performed an 18-year review (1990-2008) of all matched residents (n = 101) to a university program. Both categorical graduates (CG) and nongraduates (CNG) and nondesignated preliminaries matching (PM) and preliminaries nonmatching (PNM) were evaluated. We also screened for previous high-performance accomplishments outside of the medical field such as in the performing arts or collegiate athletics (SKILL). Outcome data include graduation or match status, American Board of Surgery In-service Training Examination (ABSITE), and faculty Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competency evaluations. Background data from the Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS) application between the various groups was compared with univariate analysis and logistic regression. There were significant differences between the groups on the measures of USMLE step 1 (STEP1) (p = 0.001), medical school grade point average (GPA) (p = 0.023), interview data (INTERVIEW) (p < 0.001), and ABSITE (p < 0.001). The variable of INTERVIEW had an odds ratio of 188.27 (95% confidence interval, 3.757-9435.405). Overall attrition was 23.7% (n = 24) and was evenly divided between those who left for lifestyle reasons and those who were encouraged to leave. Within our system, INTERVIEW, USMLE STEP1, and SKILL predict successful completion of a general surgery residency. In contrast to prior reports, female sex, ethnicity, medical school grades, or Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Society (AOA) status were not significant. The variable SKILL is novel and highlights the importance of nonacademic background data. Our data indicate STEP1 is an independent predictor of resident success in general surgery and should maintain an important role in

  19. Exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies: Key findings and future recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Baxter, Lisa K.; Dionisio, Kathie L.; Burke, Janet; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Sarnat, Jeremy A.; Hodas, Natasha; Rich, David Q.; Turpin, Barbara J.; Jones, Rena R.; Mannshardt, Elizabeth; Kumar, Naresh; Beevers, Sean D.; Özkaynak, Halûk

    2014-01-01

    Many epidemiologic studies of the health effects of exposure to ambient air pollution use measurements from central-site monitors as their exposure estimate. However, measurements from central-site monitors may lack the spatial and temporal resolution required to capture exposure variability in a study population, thus resulting in exposure error and biased estimates. Articles in this dedicated issue examine various approaches to predict or assign exposures to ambient pollutants. These methods include: combining existing central-site pollution measurements with local- and/or regional-scale air quality models to create new or “hybrid” models for pollutant exposure estimates, and using exposure models to account for factors such as infiltration of pollutants indoors and human activity patterns. Key findings from these articles are summarized to provide lessons learned and recommendations for additional research on improving exposure estimation approaches for future epidemiological studies. In summary, when compared to use of central-site monitoring data, the enhanced spatial resolution of air quality or exposure models can have an impact on resultant health effect estimates, especially for pollutants derived from local sources such as traffic (e.g. EC, CO, and NOx). In addition, the optimal exposure estimation approach also depends upon the epidemiological study design. We recommend that future research develop pollutant-specific infiltration data (including for PM species), and improve existing data on human time-activity patterns, and exposure to local source (e.g. traffic), in order to enhance human exposure modeling estimates. We also recommend comparing how various approaches to exposure estimation characterize relationships between multiple pollutants in time and space, and investigating the impact of improved exposure estimates in chronic health studies. PMID:24084756

  20. A simple sarcopenia screening test predicts future adverse events in patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Onoue, Yoshiro; Izumiya, Yasuhiro; Hanatani, Shinsuke; Tanaka, Tomoko; Yamamura, Satoru; Kimura, Yuichi; Araki, Satoshi; Sakamoto, Kenji; Tsujita, Kenichi; Yamamoto, Eiichiro; Yamamuro, Megumi; Kojima, Sunao; Kaikita, Koichi; Hokimoto, Seiji

    2016-07-15

    Progressive loss of skeletal muscle termed "sarcopenia" is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with cardiovascular diseases. A simple screening test that can identify sarcopenia using three variables (age, grip strength and calf circumference) was recently developed. We evaluated the clinical utility of this screening test in patients with heart failure (HF). HF patients were divided into the sarcopenia (n=82) and non-sarcopenia (n=37) groups based on the sarcopenia score. Circulating BNP and high-sensitive cardiac troponin T levels were significantly higher, and left ventricular ejection fraction was lower in the sarcopenia group than non-sarcopenia group. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that HF event-free survival rate was significantly lower in the sarcopenia group. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified BNP (ln[BNP]) (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.09-2.29, p=0.02), hs-CRP (ln[CRP]) (HR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.23-2.68; p<0.01) and sarcopenia score (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p<0.01) as independent predictors of HF events. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, adding the sarcopenia score to BNP levels increased an area under the curve for future HF events (sarcopenia score alone, 0.77; BNP alone, 0.82; combination, 0.89). The sarcopenia screening test can be used to predict future adverse events in patients with HF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population

    PubMed Central

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-01-01

    Background Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. Methods and Results We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Conclusions Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. PMID:26224048

  2. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population.

    PubMed

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-07-29

    Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  3. Alcohol Challenge Responses Predict Future Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms: A 6-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    King, Andrea C.; McNamara, Patrick J.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Cao, Dingcai

    2014-01-01

    Background Propensity for alcohol misuse may be linked to an individuals’ response to alcohol. This study examined the role of alcohol response phenotypes to future drinking problems. Methods One hundred four young heavy social drinkers participated in a within-subject, double-blind, placebo-controlled laboratory alcohol challenge study with 6-year follow-up. Participants were examined for subjective responses before and after receiving an intoxicating dose of alcohol (.8 g/kg) or a placebo beverage, given in random order. Follow-up was conducted in 5 waves over 6 years after the sessions to assess drinking behaviors and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. Retention was high with 98% (509 of 520) of possible follow-ups completed. Results Greater sensitivity to alcohol, in terms of stimulation and rewarding effects (like, want more) and lower sensitivity to alcohol sedation predicted greater number of AUD symptoms through 6 years of follow-up. Cluster analyses revealed that for half the sample, increasing levels of stimulation and liking were predictors of more AUD symptoms with the other half divided between those showing like and want more and want more alone as significant predictors. Conclusions The findings extend previous findings and offer new empirical insights into the propensity for excessive drinking and alcohol problems. Heightened alcohol stimulation and reward sensitivity robustly predicted more alcohol use disorder symptoms over time associated with greater binge-drinking frequency. These drinking problems were maintained and progressed as these participants were entering their third decade of life, a developmental interval when continued alcohol misuse becomes more deviant. PMID:24094754

  4. Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

    PubMed Central

    Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

  5. The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

    PubMed

    Mahony, Martin

    2014-02-01

    Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

  6. Predicting future forests: Understanding diverse phenological responses within a community and functional trait framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Flynn, D. F. B.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many plants have shifted their leafing and flowering earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. Yet alongside this increasing interest in phenology, important issues remain unanswered: responses to warming for species at the same site or in the same genus vary often by weeks or more and the explanatory power of phenology for performance and invasions when analyzed across diverse datasets remains low. We propose progress can come from explicitly considering phenology within a community context and as a critical plant trait correlated with other major plant functional traits. Here, we lay out a framework for our proposal: specifically we review how we expect phenology and phenological cues of different species within a community to vary and what other functional traits are predicted to co-vary with phenological traits. Much research currently suggests phenology is a critical functional trait that is shaped strongly by the environment. Plants are expected to adjust their phenologies to avoid periods of high abiotic risk and/or high competition. Thus we may expect phenology to correlate strongly to other traits involved in mitigating risk and high competition. Results from recent meta-analyses as well as experimental and observational research from 28 species in northeastern North American temperate forests suggest that species within a community show the predicted diversified set of phenological cues. We review early work on links to other functional traits and in closing review how these correlations may in turn determine the diversity of phenological responses observed for

  7. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    PubMed

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  8. Pattern of recovery for transient complete heart block after open heart surgery for congenital heart disease: duration alone predicts risk of late complete heart block.

    PubMed

    Aziz, Peter F; Serwer, Gerald A; Bradley, David J; LaPage, Martin J; Hirsch, Jennifer C; Bove, Edward L; Ohye, Richard G; Dick, Macdonald

    2013-04-01

    Transient complete heart block (TCHB) is defined as complete interruption of atrioventricular conduction (AVC) after cardiac surgery followed by return of conduction. This study aimed to assess the risk for the development of late complete heart block (LCHB) after recovery of TCHB and to examine the electrocardiographic and electrophysiologic properties of the AVC system after TCHB. Of the 44 patients in this study who experienced TCHB, 37 recovered completely. Seven patients progressed from TCHB to intermittent CHB or LCHB requiring pacemaker implantation. Preoperative, early postoperative, and late postoperative electrocardiograms as well as postoperative atrial stimulation were obtained. The results showed that the median duration of TCHB was 5 days in the TCHB group compared with 9 days in the LCHB group (p = 0.01). All 37 subjects with TCHB recovered AVC within 12 days, but only two with LCHB did so (p = 0.02). The risk of LCHB for the patients with 7 days of postoperative TCHB or longer was 13 times greater than for the patients with fewer than 7 days of TCHB (p = 0.01). The median late postoperative PR interval was slightly but significantly longer in the LCHB group than in the TCHB group (p = 0.02). In contrast, the electrophysiologic properties between the two groups did not differ significantly. From those findings, we concluded that delayed recovery of AVC after surgical TCHB (≥7 days), but not electrophysiologic properties of recovered AVC assessed early in the postoperative period strongly, predicts risk of LCHB. Follow-up evaluation of AVC is particularly indicated for the delayed recovery group.

  9. Using Acute Performance on a Comprehensive Neurocognitive, Vestibular, and Ocular Motor Assessment Battery to Predict Recovery Duration After Sport-Related Concussions.

    PubMed

    Sufrinko, Alicia M; Marchetti, Gregory F; Cohen, Paul E; Elbin, R J; Re, Valentina; Kontos, Anthony P

    2017-04-01

    A sport-related concussion (SRC) is a heterogeneous injury that requires a multifaceted and comprehensive approach for diagnosis and management, including symptom reports, vestibular/ocular motor assessments, and neurocognitive testing. To determine which acute (eg, within 7 days) vestibular, ocular motor, neurocognitive, and symptom impairments predict the duration of recovery after an SRC. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Sixty-nine patients with a mean age of 15.3 ± 1.9 years completed a neurocognitive, vestibular/ocular motor, and symptom assessment within 7 days of a diagnosed concussion. Patients were grouped by recovery time: ≤14 days (n = 27, 39.1%), 15-29 days (n = 25, 36.2%), and 30-90 days (n = 17, 24.6%). Multinomial regression was used to identify the best subset of predictors associated with prolonged recovery relative to ≤14 days. Acute visual motor speed and cognitive-migraine-fatigue symptoms were associated with an increased likelihood of recovery times of 30-90 days and 15-29 days relative to a recovery time of ≤14 days. A model with visual motor speed and cognitive-migraine-fatigue symptoms within the first 7 days of an SRC was 87% accurate at identifying patients with a recovery time of 30-90 days. The current study identified cognitive-migraine-fatigue symptoms and visual motor speed as the most robust predictors of protracted recovery after an SRC according to the Post-concussion Symptom Scale, Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing, and Vestibular/Ocular Motor Screening (VOMS). While VOMS components were sensitive in identifying a concussion, they were not robust predictors for recovery. Clinicians may consider particular patterns of performance on clinical measures when providing treatment recommendations and discussing anticipated recovery with patients.

  10. Prediction of future disposal of end-of-life refrigerators containing CFC-11.

    PubMed

    Yazici, Burcu; Can, Zehra S; Calli, Baris

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to predict the number of refrigerators containing CFC-11 blown isolation foam and the amount of CFC-11 banked in these refrigerators. By using a Weibull-based survival function, the number of CFC-11 containing and still-functioning refrigerators was estimated to be approximately 1.6 million in 2013 in Turkey. In order to determine the amount of CFC-11 in the isolation foam of these refrigerators, polyurethane (PU) foam samples were taken from a refrigerator manufactured in 1993 and the quantity of CFC-11 was analyzed by a GC-MS. It was determined that 113-195 mg CFC-11/g PU remains in the PU foam depending on the location such as door, sides, top and bottom. Knowing that a mid-sized refrigerator contains 4 kg PU on average, the total amount of PU foam to be disposed of is 6344 tons when the CFC-11 containing refrigerators in Turkey become obsolete in the near future. Furthermore, 717-1237 tons of CFC-11 are expected to be banked in the PU foam of these refrigerators which will exert an equivalent amount of ozone depleting potential (ODP). In addition, the global warming potential will vary between 3.4 and 5.9 million tons of CO2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A comparison of adolescent smoking initiation measures on predicting future smoking behavior

    PubMed Central

    Azagba, Sunday; Baskerville, Neill Bruce; Minaker, Leia

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Evidence suggests that age at smoking initiation has implications for tobacco use, nicotine dependence, and resulting long-term health and chronic disease outcomes. The objective of the current study was to examine two different measures of smoking onset and to compare their validity in predicting future adolescent smoking survey. Methods Data from grades 9–12 students who participated in the 2012/2013 Youth Smoking Survey, a nationally-generalizable Canadian survey, and who had ever tried a cigarette, even a few puffs (n = 8126) were used in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the association between age at smoking onset and current smoking behavior. Results Both “age at first puff” and “age at first whole cigarette” were significantly associated with current smoking status. Specifically, a delay of one year in the age at first puff was associated with lower odds of being a current smoker by 24% (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.73–0.79). Similarly, high school students who smoked their first whole cigarette at old age were less likely to report being a current smoker (AOR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.62–0.71). Conclusion Efforts to prevent smoking uptake among youth, especially younger youth, are especially important in tobacco control efforts. PMID:26844068

  12. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  13. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    PubMed

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  14. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  16. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  17. Reward circuitry responsivity to food predicts future increases in body mass: moderating effects of DRD2 and DRD4.

    PubMed

    Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja; Bohon, Cara; Marti, Nate; Smolen, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    To determine whether responsivity of reward circuitry to food predicts future increases in body mass and whether polymorphisms in DRD2 and DRD4 moderate these relations. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm investigated blood oxygen level dependent activation in response to imagined intake of palatable foods, unpalatable foods, and glasses of water shown in pictures. DNA was extracted from saliva samples using standard salting-out and solvent precipitation methods. Forty-four adolescent female high school students ranging from lean to obese. Future increases in body mass index (BMI). Weaker activation of the frontal operculum, lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and striatum in response to imagined intake of palatable foods, versus imagined intake of unpalatable foods or water, predicted future increases in body mass for those with the DRD2 TaqIA A1 allele or the DRD4-7R allele. Data also suggest that for those lacking these alleles, greater responsivity of these food reward regions predicted future increases in body mass. This novel prospective fMRI study indicates that responsivity of reward circuitry to food increases risk for future weight gain, but that genes that impact dopamine signaling capacity moderate the predictive effects, suggesting two qualitatively distinct pathways to unhealthy weight gain based on genetic risk. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose for this workshop can be summed up by the question: Are there relevant analogs to planetary (meaning the Moon and Mars) to be found in polar exploration on Earth? The answer in my opinion is yes or else there would be no reason for this workshop. However, I think some background information would be useful to provide a context for my opinion on this matter. As all of you are probably aware, NASA has been set on a path that, in its current form, will eventually lead to putting human crews on the surface of the Moon and Mars for extended (months to years) in duration. For the past 50 V 60 years, starting not long after the end of World War II, exploration of the Antarctic has accumulated a significant body of experience that is highly analogous to our anticipated activities on the Moon and Mars. This relevant experience base includes: h Long duration (1 year and 2 year) continuous deployments by single crews, h Established a substantial outpost with a single deployment event to support these crews, h Carried out long distance (100 to 1000 kilometer) traverses, with and without intermediate support h Equipment and processes evolved based on lessons learned h International cooperative missions This is not a new or original thought; many people within NASA, including the most recent two NASA Administrators, have commented on the recognizable parallels between exploration in the Antarctic and on the Moon or Mars. But given that level of recognition, relatively little has been done, that I am aware of, to encourage these two exploration communities to collaborate in a significant way. [Slide 4] I will return to NASA s plans and the parallels with Antarctic traverses in a moment, but I want to spend a moment to explain the objective of this workshop and the anticipated products. We have two full days set aside for this workshop. This first day will be taken up with a series of presentations prepared by individuals with experience that extends back as far as the

  19. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere, but future urban growth has not been considered widely to predict the future regional climate change because it is hard to predict the future land-use changes. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on Cellular Automata (CA) technique to predict the future land-use (especially, urban growth) changes. Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the research area in this study, is the most explosively developed region in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. SLEUTH was calibrated to know the pattern and process of the urban growth and expansion in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from WAter Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) historical trends of urban growth (SC1), (2) future urban policy and plan (SC2), (3) ecological protection and growth (SC3). We used the FNL data of NCEP/NCAR for one month, Oct. in 2005 to evaluate the performance of the WRF on the long-term climate simulation and compared results of WRF with the ASOS/AWS (Automated Surface Observing Systems and Automated Weather System) observation data of the Korea Meteorology Administration. Based on the accuracy of the model, we performed various numerical experiments by the urban growth scenarios using the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany on Oct. for 5 years (2046-2050), respectively. The difference of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA consequently caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase in the urban area. PBL height with a maximum of about 200m also appeared locally in newly

  20. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  1. Paced QRS duration predicts left ventricular function in patients with permanent pacemakers – One-year follow-up study using equilibrium radionuclide angiography (ERNA)

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Gautam; Shetkar, Sudhir Suryakant; Patel, Chetan D.; Singh, Harmandeep; Naik, Nitish; Roy, Ambuj; Juneja, Rajnish; Sanders, Prashanthan

    2015-01-01

    Summary Permanent pacing, being non physiological, often results in ventricular dysfunction over time. Narrower paced QRS duration from pacing the right ventricular outflow tract septum, might result in relatively preserved ventricular function over long term follow up. PMID:26937092

  2. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  3. The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on judged annoyance. [noise predictions and noise measurements of jet aircrafts and human reactions to the noise intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, K. P.

    1979-01-01

    The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on humans and the annoyance factor are examined. A nine point numerical category scaling technique is utilized for the study. Changes in the spectral characteristics of aircraft sounds caused by atmospheric attenuation are discussed. The effect of Doppler shifts using aircraft noises with minimal pure tone content is reported. The spectral content of sounds independent of duration and Doppler shift are examined by analysis of variance.

  4. Nonoperatively Corrected Clubfoot at Age 2 Years: Radiographs Are Not Helpful in Predicting Future Relapse.

    PubMed

    Richards, B Stephens; Faulks, Shawne; Razi, Ozan; Moualeu, Amanda; Jo, Chan-Hee

    2017-01-18

    -fourth subsequently required some surgery for late recurrence, primarily limited procedures. The tibiocalcaneal angle and talocalcaneal angle from standing lateral radiographs made at 18 to 24 months of age were not helpful in predicting future relapse. Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  5. Relative role of parameter vs. climate uncertainty for predictions of future Southeastern U.S. pine carbon cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jersild, A.; Thomas, R. Q.; Brooks, E.; Teskey, R. O.; Wynne, R. H.; Arthur, D.; Gonzalez, C.; Thomas, V. A.; Fox, T. D.; Smallman, L.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions of the how forest productivity and carbon sequestration will respond to climate change are essential for assisting land managers in adapting to future climate. However, current predictions can include considerable uncertainty that is often not well quantified. To address the need for better quantification of uncertainty, we calculated and compared parameter and climate prediction uncertainty for predictions of Southeastern U.S. pine forest productivity. We used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based data assimilation technique to fuse regionally widespread and diverse datasets with the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth model (3PG) model. The datasets incorporated include biomass observations from forest research plots that are part of the Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) project, photosynthesis and evaporation observations from loblolly pine Ameriflux sites, and productivity responses to elevated CO2 from the Duke Free Air C site. These spatially and temporally diverse data sets give our unique analysis a more accurately measured uncertainty by constraining complimentary components of the model. In our analysis, parameter uncertainty was quantified using simulations that integrate across the posterior parameter distributions, while climate model uncertainty was quantified using downscaled RCP 8.5 simulations from twenty different CMIP5 climate models. Overall, we found that the uncertainty in future productivity of Southeastern U.S. managed pine forests that was associated with parameterization is comparable to the uncertainty associated with climate simulations. Our results indicate that reducing parameterization in ecosystem model development can improve future predictions of forest productivity and carbon sequestration, but uncertainties in future climate predictions also need to be properly quantified and communicated to forest owners and managers.

  6. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

  7. The Dorsal Visual System Predicts Future and Remembers Past Eye Position

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Adam P.; Bremmer, Frank; Krekelberg, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Eye movements are essential to primate vision but introduce potentially disruptive displacements of the retinal image. To maintain stable vision, the brain is thought to rely on neurons that carry both visual signals and information about the current direction of gaze in their firing rates. We have shown previously that these neurons provide an accurate representation of eye position during fixation, but whether they are updated fast enough during saccadic eye movements to support real-time vision remains controversial. Here we show that not only do these neurons carry a fast and accurate eye-position signal, but also that they support in parallel a range of time-lagged variants, including predictive and post dictive signals. We recorded extracellular activity in four areas of the macaque dorsal visual cortex during a saccade task, including the lateral and ventral intraparietal areas (LIP, VIP), and the middle temporal (MT) and medial superior temporal (MST) areas. As reported previously, neurons showed tonic eye-position-related activity during fixation. In addition, they showed a variety of transient changes in activity around the time of saccades, including relative suppression, enhancement, and pre-saccadic bursts for one saccade direction over another. We show that a hypothetical neuron that pools this rich population activity through a weighted sum can produce an output that mimics the true spatiotemporal dynamics of the eye. Further, with different pooling weights, this downstream eye position signal (EPS) could be updated long before (<100 ms) or after (<200 ms) an eye movement. The results suggest a flexible coding scheme in which downstream computations have access to past, current, and future eye positions simultaneously, providing a basis for visual stability and delay-free visually-guided behavior. PMID:26941617

  8. [Blindness in Germany - comparison between retrospective data and predictions for the future].

    PubMed

    Rohrschneider, K

    2012-04-01

    There are no exact figures on the number of blind and visually impaired persons in Germany. The purpose of this study was to compare the development over the last years with earlier predictions and an outlook into the future. Data from scientific publications as well as the Federal Statistical Office and from organizations for the blind on the frequency of blindness was compared to the forecast development of blindness. In addition the development of the frequency of age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) was taken into consideration. While the proportion of over 60-year-olds has steadily increased from 21% in 1993 to 25.9% in 2009, the ratio of blind people has risen from 8.9 per 10,000 inhabitants in 1993 to 10.6 per 10,000 inhabitants in 2003. However, up to 2009 decreased every year to 9.7 which is approximately the same as 1995, although ARMD has also become much more frequent as the main cause. Additionally there are considerable differences up to a factor two between the various studies on the number of blind people in different regions of Germany. At present there are approximately 150,000 blind and about 500,000 visually impaired persons in Germany. However, these numbers are only on the basis of estimates and according to studies in other European nations. Similar uncertainty exists concerning the diseases causing blindness. A transfer from epidemiological studies is limited especially because of the different definition of blindness. The expected increase of visually impaired and blind persons for the last 20 years as a result of the increasing age cannot be confirmed from the present data. It would be desirable to extensively register the specifications to prevalence and incidence of visual impairment and blindness including valid information on the corresponding cause to confirm the rising importance of visual impairment.

  9. The Dorsal Visual System Predicts Future and Remembers Past Eye Position.

    PubMed

    Morris, Adam P; Bremmer, Frank; Krekelberg, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Eye movements are essential to primate vision but introduce potentially disruptive displacements of the retinal image. To maintain stable vision, the brain is thought to rely on neurons that carry both visual signals and information about the current direction of gaze in their firing rates. We have shown previously that these neurons provide an accurate representation of eye position during fixation, but whether they are updated fast enough during saccadic eye movements to support real-time vision remains controversial. Here we show that not only do these neurons carry a fast and accurate eye-position signal, but also that they support in parallel a range of time-lagged variants, including predictive and post dictive signals. We recorded extracellular activity in four areas of the macaque dorsal visual cortex during a saccade task, including the lateral and ventral intraparietal areas (LIP, VIP), and the middle temporal (MT) and medial superior temporal (MST) areas. As reported previously, neurons showed tonic eye-position-related activity during fixation. In addition, they showed a variety of transient changes in activity around the time of saccades, including relative suppression, enhancement, and pre-saccadic bursts for one saccade direction over another. We show that a hypothetical neuron that pools this rich population activity through a weighted sum can produce an output that mimics the true spatiotemporal dynamics of the eye. Further, with different pooling weights, this downstream eye position signal (EPS) could be updated long before (<100 ms) or after (<200 ms) an eye movement. The results suggest a flexible coding scheme in which downstream computations have access to past, current, and future eye positions simultaneously, providing a basis for visual stability and delay-free visually-guided behavior.

  10. Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task

    PubMed Central

    Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time. PMID:23325347

  11. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    PubMed Central

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Halasa, Tariq; Toft, Nils; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists of several steps to evaluate lifetime milk production and individual cow somatic cell counts and to finally predict the average production for each day that the cow is alive. Herd recording data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to train and test a model predicting milk production (including factors associated with milk yield, somatic cell count, and the survival of individual cows). All estimated parameters were either herd- or cow-specific. The model prediction deviated, on average, less than 0.5 kg from the future average milk production of dairy cows in multiple herds after adjusting for the effect of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach presented in this paper is that it requires no specific knowledge of disease status or any other information beyond herd recorded milk yields, somatic cell counts, and reproductive status. PMID:28261585

  12. Does a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy help predict future essential hypertension? Findings from a prospective pregnancy cohort study.

    PubMed

    Callaway, L K; Mamun, A; McIntyre, H D; Williams, G M; Najman, J M; Nitert, M D; Lawlor, D A

    2013-05-01

    Hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) is considered an important determinant in the prediction of future hypertension. The aim of this study is to examine whether HDP improves prediction of future hypertension, over prediction based on established risk factors measured during pregnancy. We used a community based cohort study of 2117 women who received antenatal care at a major hospital in Brisbane between 1981 and 1983 and had blood pressure assessed 21 years after the index pregnancy. Of these 2117 women, 193 (9.0%) experienced HDP and 345 (16.3%) had hypertension at 21 years postpartum. For women with HDP, the odds of being hypertensive at 21 years postpartum were 2.46 (95% CI 1.70, 3.56), adjusted for established risk factors including age, education, race, alcohol, cigarettes, exercise and body mass index. Addition of HDP did not improve the prediction model that included these established risk factors, with the area under the curve of receiver operator (AUROC) increasing from 0.710 to 0.716 (P-value for difference in AUROC=0.185). Our findings suggest that HDP is strongly and independently associated with future hypertension, and women who experience this condition should be counselled regarding lifestyle modification and careful ongoing blood pressure monitoring. However, the development of HDP during pregnancy does not improve our capacity to predict future hypertension, over risk factors identifiable at the time of pregnancy. This suggests that counseling regarding lifestyle modification and ongoing blood pressure monitoring might reasonably be provided to all pregnant and postpartum women with identifiable risk factors for future hypertension.

  13. Remote science support during MARS2013: testing a map-based system of data processing and utilization for future long-duration planetary missions.

    PubMed

    Losiak, Anna; Gołębiowska, Izabela; Orgel, Csilla; Moser, Linda; MacArthur, Jane; Boyd, Andrea; Hettrich, Sebastian; Jones, Natalie; Groemer, Gernot

    2014-05-01

    MARS2013 was an integrated Mars analog field simulation in eastern Morocco performed by the Austrian Space Forum between February 1 and 28, 2013. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the system of data processing and utilization adopted by the Remote Science Support (RSS) team during this mission. The RSS team procedures were designed to optimize operational efficiency of the Flightplan, field crew, and RSS teams during a long-term analog mission with an introduced 10 min time delay in communication between "Mars" and Earth. The RSS workflow was centered on a single-file, easy-to-use, spatially referenced database that included all the basic information about the conditions at the site of study, as well as all previous and planned activities. This database was prepared in Google Earth software. The lessons learned from MARS2013 RSS team operations are as follows: (1) using a spatially referenced database is an efficient way of data processing and data utilization in a long-term analog mission with a large amount of data to be handled, (2) mission planning based on iterations can be efficiently supported by preparing suitability maps, (3) the process of designing cartographical products should start early in the planning stages of a mission and involve representatives of all teams, (4) all team members should be trained in usage of cartographical products, (5) technical problems (e.g., usage of a geological map while wearing a space suit) should be taken into account when planning a work flow for geological exploration, (6) a system that helps the astronauts to efficiently orient themselves in the field should be designed as part of future analog studies.

  14. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  15. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  16. Predicting Premeditation: Future Behavior Is Seen as More Intentional than Past Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Zachary C.; Caruso, Eugene M.; Bartels, Daniel M.

    2012-01-01

    People's intuitions about the underlying causes of past and future actions might not be the same. In 3 studies, we demonstrate that people judge the same behavior as more intentional when it will be performed in the future than when it has been performed in the past. We found this temporal asymmetry in perceptions of both the strength of an…

  17. Forming Attitudes that Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude-Behavior Relation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracin, Dolores

    2006-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of…

  18. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  19. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  20. What Do Children Know about Their Futures: Do Children's Expectations Predict Outcomes in Middle Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallerod, Bjorn

    2011-01-01

    Are children's statements about their futures related to outcomes in middle age? In 1966 almost 13,500 children ages 12-13 were asked whether they thought their futures would be worse, similar or better as compared to others of their own age. It was shown that children with low, and surprisingly high, expectations did suffer from increased…

  1. What Do Children Know about Their Futures: Do Children's Expectations Predict Outcomes in Middle Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallerod, Bjorn

    2011-01-01

    Are children's statements about their futures related to outcomes in middle age? In 1966 almost 13,500 children ages 12-13 were asked whether they thought their futures would be worse, similar or better as compared to others of their own age. It was shown that children with low, and surprisingly high, expectations did suffer from increased…

  2. Prediction intervals for future BMI values of individual children: a non-parametric approach by quantile boosting.

    PubMed

    Mayr, Andreas; Hothorn, Torsten; Fenske, Nora

    2012-01-25

    The construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for future body mass index (BMI) values of individual children based on a recent German birth cohort study with n = 2007 children is problematic for standard parametric approaches, as the BMI distribution in childhood is typically skewed depending on age. We avoid distributional assumptions by directly modelling the borders of PIs by additive quantile regression, estimated by boosting. We point out the concept of conditional coverage to prove the accuracy of PIs. As conditional coverage can hardly be evaluated in practical applications, we conduct a simulation study before fitting child- and covariate-specific PIs for future BMI values and BMI patterns for the present data. The results of our simulation study suggest that PIs fitted by quantile boosting cover future observations with the predefined coverage probability and outperform the benchmark approach. For the prediction of future BMI values, quantile boosting automatically selects informative covariates and adapts to the age-specific skewness of the BMI distribution. The lengths of the estimated PIs are child-specific and increase, as expected, with the age of the child. Quantile boosting is a promising approach to construct PIs with correct conditional coverage in a non-parametric way. It is in particular suitable for the prediction of BMI patterns depending on covariates, since it provides an interpretable predictor structure, inherent variable selection properties and can even account for longitudinal data structures.

  3. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

    PubMed

    Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A Statistical Weather-Driven Streamflow Model: Enabling future flow predictions in data-scarce headwater streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Predicting streamflow in headwaters and over a broad spatial scale pose unique challenges due to limited data availability. Flow observation gages for headwaters streams are less common than for larger rivers, and gages with records lengths of ten year or more are even more scarce. Thus, there is a great need for estimating streamflows in ungaged or sparsely-gaged headwaters. Further, there is often insufficient basin information to develop rainfall-runoff models that could be used to predict future flows under various climate scenarios. Headwaters in the northeastern U.S. are of particular concern to aquatic biologists, as these stream serve as essential habitat for native coldwater fish. In order to understand fish response to past or future environmental drivers, estimates of seasonal streamflow are needed. While there is limited flow data, there is a wealth of data for historic weather conditions. Observed data has been modeled to interpolate a spatially continuous historic weather dataset. (Mauer et al 2002). We present a statistical model developed by pairing streamflow observations with precipitation and temperature information for the same and preceding time-steps. We demonstrate this model's use to predict flow metrics at the seasonal time-step. While not a physical model, this statistical model represents the weather drivers. Since this model can predict flows not directly tied to reference gages, we can generate flow estimates for historic as well as potential future conditions.

  5. Prediction of Future Osteoporotic Fracture Occurrence by Genetic Profiling: A 6-Year Follow-Up Observational Study.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seung Hun; Cho, Eun-Hee; Ahn, Seong Hee; Kim, Hyeon-Mok; Lim, Kyeong-Hye; Kim, Beom-Jun; Kim, Sang-Wook; Kim, Tae-Ho; Kim, Shin-Yoon; Kim, Ghi Su; Kang, Moo Il; Koh, Jung-Min

    2016-03-01

    Heredity is an important risk factor for osteoporotic fracture, but it remains unclear whether genetic factors improve the predictability of future fracture occurrence. To compare an integration model of genetic profiling with the current model for predicting future fracture occurrence. A retrospective observational cohort study. Postmenopausal women aged 45-93 years who were untreated (n = 117), hormone-treated (n = 491), or bisphosphonate (BP)-treated (n = 415), with a mean 6.1-year follow-up. The main outcome was incident fractures. Ninety-five single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped. We calculated the Korean-specific genetic risk score 35 (GRS35) from 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with osteoporosis-related traits at the baseline visit. Osteoporotic fracture occurred more frequently in the highest GRS35 tertile group than in the lower two tertile groups after adjustments for confounders (hazard ratio [HR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.55). The associations of the GRS35 with incident fracture were only significant in the BP group (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.28-3.95) and not in the untreated (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.34-4.66) and hormone-treated (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.62-2.36) groups. Integration of the GRS35 into the current model further improved its predictability for incident fracture occurrence by 6.3% (P = .010). Genetic profiling can more accurately predict future fracture risk, especially in individuals taking BPs.

  6. Future rainfall variability in Indonesia under different ENSO and IOD composites based on decadal predictions of CMIP5 datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilhaqqi Qalbi, Harisa; Faqih, Akhmad; Hidayat, Rahmat

    2017-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are amongst important climate drivers that play a significant role in driving rainfall variability in Indonesia, especially on inter-annual timescales. The phenomena are suggested to have an association with interdecadal climate variability through the modulation of their oscillations. This study aims to analyse the characteristics of future rainfall variability in Indonesia during different condition of ENSO and IOD events based on decadal predictions of near-term climate change CMIP5 GCM data outputs up to year 2035. Monthly data of global rainfall data with 5x5 km grid resolutions of CHIRPS dataset is used in this study to represent historical rainfall variability as well to serve as a reference for future rainfall predictions. The current and future rainfall and sea surface temperature data have been bias corrected before performing the analysis. Given the comparison between rainfall composites during El-Nino and positive IOD events, the study showed that the future rainfall conditions in Indonesia will become drier than the historical condition resulted from the same composite approach. In general, this study showed the Indonesian rainfall variability in the future is expected to respond differently to a different combination of ENSO and IOD conditions.

  7. Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

    2011-10-01

    Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (P<0.05) and that reminding people of these experiences results in higher predicted future liking for vegetables (P<0.05) and choice of a larger portion size of vegetables (P<0.05) compared with recall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Duration of first remission, hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index and patient age predict survival of patients with AML transplanted in second CR.

    PubMed

    Michelis, F V; Atenafu, E G; Gupta, V; Kim, D D; Kuruvilla, J; Lambie, A; Lipton, J H; Loach, D; Messner, H A

    2013-11-01

    Allo-SCT is potentially curative for patients with AML. Patients transplanted in CR2 tend to experience inferior survival compared with those in CR1. We retrospectively investigated the impact of pretransplant variables on the outcome of patients transplanted with AML in CR2. Ninety-four patients with AML in CR2 received a transplant between 1999 and 2011 with myeloablative (MA, n=65) or reduced-intensity conditioning regimens (RIC, n=29). Variables investigated included cytogenetic risk at diagnosis (SWOG), hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI), CMV status, duration of CR1 and age. Median age of all patients was 47 years (range 18-70). Multivariable analysis for OS identified three prognostically significant categories: a favorable risk group included patients with duration of CR1 ≥6 months, age <55 years and HCT-CI score 0-3, an intermediate risk group with duration of CR1 ≥6 months, age <55 years and HCT-CI score 4-5 and a high-risk group with duration of CR1 <6 months or age ≥55 years (P=0.0001) with 5-year survivals of 53%, 31% and 6%, respectively. Acute and chronic GVHD did not influence this risk stratification. The stated risk factors discriminate patients with different OS and may assist in decision making for allo-SCT.

  9. Future daily PM10 concentrations prediction by combining regression models and feedforward backpropagation models with principle component analysis (PCA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ul-Saufie, Ahmad Zia; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ramli, Nor Azam; Rosaida, Norrimi; Hamid, Hazrul Abdul

    2013-10-01

    Future PM10 concentration prediction is very important because it can help local authorities to enact preventative measures to reduce the impact of air pollution. The aims of this study are to improve prediction of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Feedforward backpropagation (FFBP) by combining them with principle component analysis for predicting future (next day, next two-day and next three-day) PM10 concentration in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Annual hourly observations for PM10 in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia from January 2003 to December 2010 were selected for predicting PM10 concentration level. Eighty percent of the monitoring records were used for training and twenty percent were used for validation of the models. Three accuracy measures - Prediction Accuracy (PA), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Index of Agreement (IA), as well as two error measures - Normalized Absolute Error (NAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results show that PCA models combined with MLR and PCA with FFBP improved MLR and FFBP models for all three days in advance of predicting PM10 concentration, with reduced errors by as much as 18.1% (PCA-MLR) and 17.68% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 19.2% (PCA-MLR) and 22.1% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 18.7% (PCA-MLR) and 22.79% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions. Including PCA improved the accuracy of the models by as much as by 12.9% (PCA-MLR) and 13.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 32.3% (PCA-MLR) and 14.7% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 46.1% (PCA-MLR) and 19.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions.

  10. Predicted Megafire Locations under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorentz, K. A.; Drury, S.; Raffuse, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past several years, large high-intensity wildfires, or "megafires," have set records for the greatest burn area and most costly fires in several U.S. states. Megafires can release many tons of fine particles and other pollutants that are hazardous to human health over a short period of time. Under future climate scenarios, megafires may increase in some regions. The danger of smoke exposure from megafires in the future depends on several spatial factors, including the likelihood of megafire occurrence, emission rates, air transport patterns, and population density. We combined climatological transport modeling, smoke emission rates, and population density to determine the areas within the U.S. where a megafire would result in the greatest human exposure to smoke. Coupled with a synthesis of recent studies on the likelihood of megafire occurrence under future climate scenarios, these results provide a view of future smoke management and emergency response needs.

  11. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  12. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  13. Predicting Response to EGFR Inhibitors in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Current Practice and Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Shankaran, Veena; Obel, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    The identification of KRAS mutational status as a predictive marker of response to antibodies against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has been one of the most significant and practice-changing recent advances in colorectal cancer research. Recently, data suggesting a potential role for other markers (including BRAF mutations, loss of phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome ten expression, and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase–AKT pathway mutations) in predicting response to anti-EGFR therapy have emerged. Ongoing clinical trials and correlative analyses are essential to definitively identify predictive markers and develop therapeutic strategies for patients who may not derive benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. This article reviews recent clinical trials supporting the predictive role of KRAS, recent changes to clinical guidelines and pharmaceutical labeling, investigational predictive molecular markers, and newer clinical trials targeting patients with mutated KRAS. PMID:20133499

  14. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  15. Internal and Predictive Validity of the French Health of the Nation Outcome Scales: Need for Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Golay, Philippe; Basterrechea, Louis; Conus, Philippe; Bonsack, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) is a widely used measure of health and social functioning of people with mental illness. The goals of this study were to verify the internal validity of the one factor and several four-factor scoring structures and to evaluate the predictive validity of HoNOS items with regards to duration of hospitalization, probability of readmission in the following year and time before readmission. 6175 hospital stays at the department of psychiatry of Lausanne University Hospital were screened and the first HoNOS of each patient was taken into account (N = 2722). Data were analyzed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and the predictive validity of HoNOS items was evaluated with two approaches: item level regressions and latent class analysis (LCA). CFA indicated that the suggested factor structures were not supported by the data. Predictive validity of the 12 items was weak but LCA revealed five distinct and meaningful profiles that were related to length of stay or readmission. HoNOS may be more adapted to the evaluation of patients case-mix rather than to the individual level and concepts such as predictive validity may be more appropriate than internal validity to guide its use. PMID:27483015

  16. Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

    PubMed

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Willick, Stuart E

    2016-05-01

    The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000-09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL.

  17. The quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere: Seasonal regularity in zonal wind changes, discrete QBO-cycle period and prediction of QBO-cycle duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabis, I. P.; Troshichev, O. A.

    2011-08-01

    The changes of vertical wind structure in equatorial stratosphere in course of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) demonstrates the evident seasonal dependence. The easterly wind regime descending from the middle to lower stratosphere always includes the stationary period—the stagnation stage. At stagnation stage the bottom boundary of the easterly wind is located in different QBO-cycles at different altitude in the range from ˜22 to ˜26 km, but in each QBO-cycle this altitude is actually constant during the whole stagnation period. Stagnation always begins in solstice (in June-July or December-January). Descent of the easterly wind after stagnation is always resumed near equinox—in March-April or September-October. Consequently, the duration of stagnation stage varies discretely and can be equal to one, three, or five seasons (three, nine, or fifteen months, respectively) in different QBO-cycles. The QBO-cycle period determined as an interval between the beginnings of two successive stagnation stages turns out to be of discrete duration also, and can be equal to 24, 30, or 36 months. The dependence of many atmosphere phenomena determining the Earth's climate on QBO-phase suggests the need to forecast the QBO-cycle evolution. The established seasonal regularity and discrete QBO-cycle period make it possible the forecasting the QBO-cycle evolution, its duration, and the dates of the QBO-phase changing.

  18. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  19. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    SciTech Connect

    Petticrew, Mark . E-mail: mark@msoc.mrc.gla.ac.uk; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-15

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers.

  20. It is hard to predict the future: the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Ackerman, G A

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future.

  1. Future of toxicology--predictive toxicology: An expanded view of "chemical toxicity".

    PubMed

    Richard, Ann M

    2006-10-01

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure-activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. These approaches are less well-suited, however, to the challenges of global toxicity prediction, i.e., to predicting the potential toxicity of structurally diverse chemicals across a wide range of end points of regulatory and pharmaceutical concern. New approaches that have the potential to significantly improve capabilities in predictive toxicology are elaborating the "activity" portion of the SAR paradigm. Recent advances in two areas of endeavor are particularly promising. Toxicity data informatics relies on standardized data schema, developed for particular areas of toxicological study, to facilitate data integration and enable relational exploration and mining of data across both historical and new areas of toxicological investigation. Bioassay profiling refers to large-scale high-throughput screening approaches that use chemicals as probes to broadly characterize biological response space, extending the concept of chemical "properties" to the biological activity domain. The effective capture and representation of legacy and new toxicity data into mineable form and the large-scale generation of new bioassay data in relation to chemical toxicity, both employing chemical structure information to inform and integrate diverse biological data, are opening exciting new horizons in predictive toxicology.

  2. How well can we predict soil respiration with climate indicators, now and in the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berridge, C. T.; Hadju, L. H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2014-02-01

    Soils contain the largest terrestrial store of carbon; three times greater than present atmospheric concentrations, whilst the annual soil-atmosphere exchange of carbon is an order of magnitude larger than all anthropogenic effluxes. Quantifying future pool sizes and fluxes is therefore sensitive to small methodological errors, yet unfortunately remains the second largest area of uncertainty in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections. The flux of carbon from heterotrophic decomposition of soil organic matter is parameterized as a rate constant. This parameter is calculated from observed total soil carbon efflux and contemporaneously observed temperature and soil moisture. This metric is then used to simulate future rates of heterotrophic respiration, as driven by the projections of future climate- temperature and precipitation. We examine two underlying assumptions: how well current climate (mean temperature and precipitation) can account for contemporary soil respiration, and whether an observational parameter derived from this data will be valid in the future. We find mean climate values to be of some use in capturing total soil respiration to the 95% confidence interval, but note an inability to distinguish between subtropical and Mediterranean fluxes, or wetland-grassland and wetland-forest fluxes. Regarding the future, we present a collection of CO2 enrichment studies demonstrating a strong agreement in soil respiration response (a 25% increase) independent of changes in temperature and moisture, however these data are spatially limited to the northern mid-latitudes. In order to "future-proof" simple statistical parameters used to calculate the output from heterotrophic soil respiration, we propose a correction factor derived from empirical observations, but note the spatial and temporal limitations. In conclusion, there seems to be no sound basis to assume that models with the best fit to contemporary data will produce the best estimates of

  3. Hierarchy of gene expression data is predictive of future breast cancer outcome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-10-01

    We calculate measures of hierarchy in gene and tissue networks of breast cancer patients. We find that the likelihood of metastasis in the future is correlated with increased values of network hierarchy for expression networks of cancer-associated genes, due to the correlated expression of cancer-specific pathways. Conversely, future metastasis and quick relapse times are negatively correlated with the values of network hierarchy in the expression network of all genes, due to the dedifferentiation of gene pathways and circuits. These results suggest that the hierarchy of gene expression may be useful as an additional biomarker for breast cancer prognosis.

  4. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  5. Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

    Treesearch

    Steven E. Smith; Ma.G. Mendoza; Gerardo Zuniga; Kandres Kalbrook; J.L. Hayes; D.N. Byrne

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the distribution of key biotic elements of forest ecosystems is essential in contemporary forest management and in planning to meet future management needs. Habitat distribution (niche) models based on known occurrences provide geographical structure for such management as the environmental factors change....

  6. Enduring Risk? Old Criminal Records and Predictions of Future Criminal Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurlychek, Megan C.; Brame, Robert; Bushway, Shawn D.

    2007-01-01

    It is well accepted that criminal records impose collateral consequences on offenders. Such records affect access to public housing, student financial aid, welfare benefits, and voting rights. An axiom of these policies is that individuals with criminal records--even old criminal records--exhibit significantly higher risk of future criminal…

  7. Enduring Risk? Old Criminal Records and Predictions of Future Criminal Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurlychek, Megan C.; Brame, Robert; Bushway, Shawn D.

    2007-01-01

    It is well accepted that criminal records impose collateral consequences on offenders. Such records affect access to public housing, student financial aid, welfare benefits, and voting rights. An axiom of these policies is that individuals with criminal records--even old criminal records--exhibit significantly higher risk of future criminal…

  8. The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale; Gyawali, Rabi

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

  9. Future global and regional climate change: From near-term prediction to long-term projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.; Collins, M.; Power, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Christensen, J. H.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC AR5 as