The use of patient factors to improve the prediction of operative duration using laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Thiels, Cornelius A; Yu, Denny; Abdelrahman, Amro M; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Hallbeck, Susan; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Bingener, Juliane

2017-01-01

Reliable prediction of operative duration is essential for improving patient and care team satisfaction, optimizing resource utilization and reducing cost. Current operative scheduling systems are unreliable and contribute to costly over- and underestimation of operative time. We hypothesized that the inclusion of patient-specific factors would improve the accuracy in predicting operative duration. We reviewed all elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies performed at a single institution between 01/2007 and 06/2013. Concurrent procedures were excluded. Univariate analysis evaluated the effect of age, gender, BMI, ASA, laboratory values, smoking, and comorbidities on operative duration. Multivariable linear regression models were constructed using the significant factors (p < 0.05). The patient factors model was compared to the traditional surgical scheduling system estimates, which uses historical surgeon-specific and procedure-specific operative duration. External validation was done using the ACS-NSQIP database (n = 11,842). A total of 1801 laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients met inclusion criteria. Female sex was associated with reduced operative duration (-7.5 min, p < 0.001 vs. male sex) while increasing BMI (+5.1 min BMI 25-29.9, +6.9 min BMI 30-34.9, +10.4 min BMI 35-39.9, +17.0 min BMI 40 + , all p < 0.05 vs. normal BMI), increasing ASA (+7.4 min ASA III, +38.3 min ASA IV, all p < 0.01 vs. ASA I), and elevated liver function tests (+7.9 min, p < 0.01 vs. normal) were predictive of increased operative duration on univariate analysis. A model was then constructed using these predictive factors. The traditional surgical scheduling system was poorly predictive of actual operative duration (R 2  = 0.001) compared to the patient factors model (R 2  = 0.08). The model remained predictive on external validation (R 2  = 0.14).The addition of surgeon as a variable in the institutional model further improved predictive ability of the model

Yawn duration predicts brain weight and cortical neuron number in mammals

PubMed Central

Church, Allyson M.; Pelegrino, Anthony J.

2016-01-01

Research indicates that the motor action pattern of yawning functions to promote cortical arousal and state change through enhanced intracranial circulation and brain cooling. Because the magnitude of this response likely corresponds to the degree of neurophysiological change, we hypothesized that interspecies variation in yawn duration would correlate with underlying neurological differences. Using openly accessible data, we show that both the mean and variance in yawn duration are robust predictors of mammalian brain weight and cortical neuron number (ρ-values > 0.9). Consistent with these effects, primates tend to have longer and more variable yawn durations compared with other mammals. Although yawning has long been considered a stereotyped action pattern, these findings reveal substantial variation in this response and highlight the importance of measuring yawn duration in future research. PMID:27703056

Sensor-derived physical activity parameters can predict future falls in people with dementia.

PubMed

Schwenk, Michael; Hauer, Klaus; Zieschang, Tania; Englert, Stefan; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

2014-01-01

There is a need for simple clinical tools that can objectively assess the fall risk in people with dementia. Wearable sensors seem to have the potential for fall prediction; however, there has been limited work performed in this important area. To explore the validity of sensor-derived physical activity (PA) parameters for predicting future falls in people with dementia. To compare sensor-based fall risk assessment with conventional fall risk measures. This was a cohort study of people with confirmed dementia discharged from a geriatric rehabilitation ward. PA was quantified using 24-hour motion-sensor monitoring at the beginning of the study. PA parameters (percentage of walking, standing, sitting, and lying; duration of single walking, standing, and sitting bouts) were extracted using specific algorithms. Conventional assessment included performance-based tests (Timed Up and Go Test, Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment, 5-chair stand) and questionnaires (cognition, ADL status, fear of falling, depression, previous faller). Outcome measures were fallers (at least one fall in the 3-month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. 77 people were included in the study (age 81.8 ± 6.3; community-dwelling 88%, institutionalized 12%). Surprisingly, fallers and non-fallers did not differ on any conventional assessment (p = 0.069-0.991), except for 'previous faller' (p = 0.006). Interestingly, several PA parameters discriminated between the groups. The 'walking bout average duration', 'longest walking bout duration' and 'walking bout duration variability' were lower in fallers, compared to non-fallers (p = 0.008-0.027). The 'standing bout average duration' was higher in fallers (p = 0.050). Two variables, 'walking bout average duration' [odds ratio (OR) 0.79, p = 0.012] and 'previous faller' (OR 4.44, p = 0.007) were identified as independent predictors for falls. The OR for a 'walking bout average duration' <15 s for predicting fallers was 6.30 (p = 0.020). Combining

Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak

2011-01-01

Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

Effects of metric hierarchy and rhyme predictability on word duration in The Cat in the Hat.

PubMed

Breen, Mara

2018-05-01

Word durations convey many types of linguistic information, including intrinsic lexical features like length and frequency and contextual features like syntactic and semantic structure. The current study was designed to investigate whether hierarchical metric structure and rhyme predictability account for durational variation over and above other features in productions of a rhyming, metrically-regular children's book: The Cat in the Hat (Dr. Seuss, 1957). One-syllable word durations and inter-onset intervals were modeled as functions of segment number, lexical frequency, word class, syntactic structure, repetition, and font emphasis. Consistent with prior work, factors predicting longer word durations and inter-onset intervals included more phonemes, lower frequency, first mention, alignment with a syntactic boundary, and capitalization. A model parameter corresponding to metric grid height improved model fit of word durations and inter-onset intervals. Specifically, speakers realized five levels of metric hierarchy with inter-onset intervals such that interval duration increased linearly with increased height in the metric hierarchy. Conversely, speakers realized only three levels of metric hierarchy with word duration, demonstrating that they shortened the highly predictable rhyme resolutions. These results further understanding of the factors that affect spoken word duration, and demonstrate the myriad cues that children receive about linguistic structure from nursery rhymes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative computed tomography versus spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer.

PubMed

Ueda, Kazuhiro; Kaneda, Yoshikazu; Sudo, Manabu; Mitsutaka, Jinbo; Li, Tao-Sheng; Suga, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Hamano, Kimikazu

2005-11-01

Emphysema is a well-known risk factor for developing air leak or persistent air leak after pulmonary resection. Although quantitative computed tomography (CT) and spirometry are used to diagnose emphysema, it remains controversial whether these tests are predictive of the duration of postoperative air leak. Sixty-two consecutive patients who were scheduled to undergo major lung resection for cancer were enrolled in this prospective study to define the best predictor of postoperative air leak duration. Preoperative factors analyzed included spirometric variables and area of emphysema (proportion of the low-attenuation area) that was quantified in a three-dimensional CT lung model. Chest tubes were removed the day after disappearance of the air leak, regardless of pleural drainage. Univariate and multivariate proportional hazards analyses were used to determine the influence of preoperative factors on chest tube time (air leak duration). By univariate analysis, site of resection (upper, lower), forced expiratory volume in 1 second, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and area of emphysema (< 1%, 1% to 10%, > 10%) were significant predictors of air leak duration. By multivariate analysis, site of resection and area of emphysema were the best independent determinants of air leak duration. The results were similar for patients with a smoking history (n = 40), but neither forced expiratory volume in 1 second nor predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second were predictive of air leak duration. Quantitative CT is superior to spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer. Quantitative CT may aid in the identification of patients, particularly among those with a smoking history, requiring additional preventive procedures against air leak.

Duration of resuscitation efforts for in-hospital cardiac arrest by predicted outcomes: Insights from Get With The Guidelines – Resuscitation✩

PubMed Central

Bradley, Steven M.; Liu, Wenhui; Chan, Paul S.; Girotra, Saket; Goldberger, Zahary D.; Valle, Javier A.; Perman, Sarah M.; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.

2017-01-01

Background The duration of resuscitation efforts has implications for patient survival of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). It is unknown if patients with better predicted survival of IHCA receive longer attempts at resuscitation. Methods In a multicenter observational cohort of 40,563 adult non-survivors of resuscitation efforts for IHCA between 2000 and 2012, we determined the pre-arrest predicted probability of survival to discharge with good neurologic status, categorized into very low (<1%), low (1–3%), average (>3%–15%), and above average (>15%). We then determined the association between predicted arrest survival probability and the duration of resuscitation efforts. Results The median duration of resuscitation efforts among all non-survivors was 19 min (interquartile range 13–28 min). Overall, the median duration of resuscitation efforts was longer in non-survivors with a higher predicted probability of survival with good neurologic status (median of 16, 17, 20, and 23 min among the groups predicted to have very low, low, average, and above probabilities, respectively; P < 0.001). However, the duration of resuscitation was often discordant with predicted survival, including longer than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 40.4% of patients with very low predicted survival and shorter than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 31.9% of patients with above average predicted survival. Conclusions The duration of resuscitation efforts in patients with IHCA was generally consistent with their predicted survival. However, nearly a third of patients with above average predicted outcomes received shorter than average (less than 19 min) duration of resuscitation efforts. PMID:28039064

Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cates, Grant R.

2014-01-01

The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting

'It is Time to Prepare the Next patient' Real-Time Prediction of Procedure Duration in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomies.

PubMed

Guédon, Annetje C P; Paalvast, M; Meeuwsen, F C; Tax, D M J; van Dijke, A P; Wauben, L S G L; van der Elst, M; Dankelman, J; van den Dobbelsteen, J J

2016-12-01

Operating Room (OR) scheduling is crucial to allow efficient use of ORs. Currently, the predicted durations of surgical procedures are unreliable and the OR schedulers have to follow the progress of the procedures in order to update the daily planning accordingly. The OR schedulers often acquire the needed information through verbal communication with the OR staff, which causes undesired interruptions of the surgical process. The aim of this study was to develop a system that predicts in real-time the remaining procedure duration and to test this prediction system for reliability and usability in an OR. The prediction system was based on the activation pattern of one single piece of equipment, the electrosurgical device. The prediction system was tested during 21 laparoscopic cholecystectomies, in which the activation of the electrosurgical device was recorded and processed in real-time using pattern recognition methods. The remaining surgical procedure duration was estimated and the optimal timing to prepare the next patient for surgery was communicated to the OR staff. The mean absolute error was smaller for the prediction system (14 min) than for the OR staff (19 min). The OR staff doubted whether the prediction system could take all relevant factors into account but were positive about its potential to shorten waiting times for patients. The prediction system is a promising tool to automatically and objectively predict the remaining procedure duration, and thereby achieve optimal OR scheduling and streamline the patient flow from the nursing department to the OR.

Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; M. A. Sattar, Ahmed; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2017-02-01

This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

PubMed

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

2016-09-01

During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

Measures of behavioral function predict duration of video game play: Utilization of the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised.

PubMed

Buono, Frank D; Griffiths, Mark D; Sprong, Matthew E; Lloyd, Daniel P; Sullivan, Ryan M; Upton, Thomas D

2017-12-01

Background Internet gaming disorder (IGD) was introduced in the DSM-5 as a way of identifying and diagnosing problematic video game play. However, the use of the diagnosis is constrained, as it shares criteria with other addictive orders (e.g., pathological gambling). Aims Further work is required to better understand IGD. One potential avenue of investigation is IGD's relationship to the primary reinforcing behavioral functions. This study explores the relationship between duration of video game play and the reinforcing behavioral functions that may motivate or maintain video gaming. Methods A total of 499 video game players began the online survey, with complete data from 453 participants (85% white and 28% female), were analyzed. Individuals were placed into five groups based on self-reported hours of video gaming per week, and completed the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised (VGFA-R). Results The results demonstrated the escape and social attention function were significant in predicting duration of video game play, whereas sensory and tangible were not significant. Conclusion Future implications of the VGFA-R and behaviorally based research are discussed.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-01-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-02-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

2017-12-01

The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

Predicting the duration of sickness absence for patients with common mental disorders in occupational health care.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Verbeek, Jos H A M; de Boer, Angela G E M; Blonk, Roland W B; van Dijk, Frank J H

2006-02-01

This study attempted to determine the factors that best predict the duration of absence from work among employees with common mental disorders. A cohort of 188 employees, of whom 102 were teachers, on sick leave with common mental disorders was followed for 1 year. Only information potentially available to the occupational physician during a first consultation was included in the predictive model. The predictive power of the variables was tested using Cox's regression analysis with a stepwise backward selection procedure. The hazard ratios (HR) from the final model were used to deduce a simple prediction rule. The resulting prognostic scores were then used to predict the probability of not returning to work after 3, 6, and 12 months. Calculating the area under the curve from the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve tested the discriminative ability of the prediction rule. The final Cox's regression model produced the following four predictors of a longer time until return to work: age older than 50 years [HR 0.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.3-0.8], expectation of duration absence longer than 3 months (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), higher educational level (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), and diagnosis depression or anxiety disorder (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4-0.9). The resulting prognostic score yielded areas under the curves ranging from 0.68 to 0.73, which represent acceptable discrimination of the rule. A prediction rule based on four simple variables can be used by occupational physicians to identify unfavorable cases and to predict the duration of sickness absence.

Habitual sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk using the pooled cohort risk equations among US adults.

PubMed

Ford, Earl S

2014-12-02

The association between sleep duration and predicted cardiovascular risk has been poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between self-reported sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk among US adults. Data from 7690 men and nonpregnant women who were aged 40 to 79 years, who were free of self-reported heart disease and stroke, and who participated in a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2012 were analyzed. Sleep duration was self-reported. Predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the pooled cohort equations. Among the included participants, 13.1% reported sleeping ≤5 hours, 24.4% reported sleeping 6 hours, 31.9% reported sleeping 7 hours, 25.2% reported sleeping 8 hours, 4.0% reported sleeping 9 hours, and 1.3% reported sleeping ≥10 hours. After adjustment for covariates, geometric mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was 4.0%, 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.7%, and 3.7% among participants who reported sleeping ≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and ≥10 hours per night, respectively (PWald chi-square<0.001). The age-adjusted percentages of predicted cardiovascular risk ≥20% for the 6 intervals of sleep duration were 14.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, 11.4%, 11.8%, and 16.3% (PWald chi-square=0.022). After maximal adjustment, however, sleep duration was not significantly associated with cardiovascular risk ≥20% (PWald chi-square=0.698). Mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was lowest among adults who reported sleeping 7 hours per night and increased as participants reported sleeping fewer and more hours. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Predicting non-isometric fatigue induced by electrical stimulation pulse trains as a function of pulse duration

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Our previous model of the non-isometric muscle fatigue that occurs during repetitive functional electrical stimulation included models of force, motion, and fatigue and accounted for applied load but not stimulation pulse duration. Our objectives were to: 1) further develop, 2) validate, and 3) present outcome measures for a non-isometric fatigue model that can predict the effect of a range of pulse durations on muscle fatigue. Methods A computer-controlled stimulator sent electrical pulses to electrodes on the thighs of 25 able-bodied human subjects. Isometric and non-isometric non-fatiguing and fatiguing knee torques and/or angles were measured. Pulse duration (170–600 μs) was the independent variable. Measurements were divided into parameter identification and model validation subsets. Results The fatigue model was simplified by removing two of three non-isometric parameters. The third remained a function of other model parameters. Between 66% and 77% of the variability in the angle measurements was explained by the new model. Conclusion Muscle fatigue in response to different stimulation pulse durations can be predicted during non-isometric repetitive contractions. PMID:23374142

Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

PubMed Central

Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K.; Petersen, Alexander M.; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

2013-01-01

Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their “predictive power”. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Healy, Alice; Dempsey, Donna L.; McGuire, Kerry M.; Landon, Lauren B.

2018-01-01

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Healy, Alice; Dempsey, Donna L.; Mcguire, Kerry; Landon, Lauren

2017-01-01

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

Predictability Effects on Durations of Content and Function Words in Conversational English

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bell, Alan; Brenier, Jason; Gregory, Michelle L.

Content and function word duration are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Regression analyses of conversational speech show that content words are shorter when they are more frequent, but function words are not. Repeated content words are shorter, but function words are not. Furthermore, function words have shorter pronunciations, after controlling for frequency and predictability. both content and function words are strongly affected by predictability from the word following them, and only very frequent function words show sensitivity to predictability from the preceding word. The results support the view that content and function words are accessed by different productionmore » mechanisms. We argue that words’ form differences due to frequency or repetition stem from their faster or slower lexical access, mediated by a general mechanism that coordinates the pace of higher-level planning and the execution of the articulatory plan.« less

Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning

PubMed Central

Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

2015-01-01

The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected. PMID:26244924

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Bharamgoudar, Reshma; Sonsale, Aniket; Hodson, James; Griffiths, Ewen

2018-07-01

The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45-85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.

Central aortic systolic blood pressure can predict prolonged QTc duration better than brachial artery systolic blood pressure in rural community residents.

PubMed

Huang, Yuqing; Tang, Songtao; Chen, Ji-Yan; Huang, Cheng; Li, Jie; Cai, An-Ping; Feng, Yingqing

2018-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that prolonged electrocardiogram QTc duration was independent risk factor for both increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, but there was no dating about the relationship between central aortic systolic blood pressure (CASP) and QTc duration. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between CASP and QTc duration, and assess whether CASP can predict prolonged QTc duration more than BSBP. A total of 500 patients were enrolled in this study, central and brachial aortic blood pressure and electrocardiogram QTc duration were measured. Pearson correlation was assessed for determining the associations of QTc duration with clinical conditions. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent predictor of prolonged QTc duration. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the utility of blood pressure for prolonged QTc duration. We found QTc durations were significantly positive with CASP (r = 0.308, p < 0.001), BSBP (r = 0.227, p < 0.001), and age (r = 0.154, p = 0.010), but negatively related to heart rate (r = -440, p < 0.001). A multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the CASP was an independent determinant of prolonged QTc (OR = 1.648; 95%CI: 1.032, 2.101; p < 0.001). CASP had a better predictive value for prolonged QTc duration than (AUC: 0.771 vs. 0.646, p < 0.001) BSBP. Our results suggested that the non-invasive CASP is independently correlated with QTc duration, and CASP can predict prolonged QTc duration more than BSBP.

Big data prediction of durations for online collective actions based on peak's timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Shizhao; Wang, Zheng; Pujia, Wangmo; Nie, Yuan; Lu, Peng

2018-02-01

Peak Model states that each collective action has a life circle, which contains four periods of "prepare", "outbreak", "peak", and "vanish"; and the peak determines the max energy and the whole process. The peak model's re-simulation indicates that there seems to be a stable ratio between the peak's timing (TP) and the total span (T) or duration of collective actions, which needs further validations through empirical data of collective actions. Therefore, the daily big data of online collective actions is applied to validate the model; and the key is to check the ratio between peak's timing and the total span. The big data is obtained from online data recording & mining of websites. It is verified by the empirical big data that there is a stable ratio between TP and T; furthermore, it seems to be normally distributed. This rule holds for both the general cases and the sub-types of collective actions. Given the distribution of the ratio, estimated probability density function can be obtained, and therefore the span can be predicted via the peak's timing. Under the scenario of big data, the instant span (how long the collective action lasts or when it ends) will be monitored and predicted in real-time. With denser data (Big Data), the estimation of the ratio's distribution gets more robust, and the prediction of collective actions' spans or durations will be more accurate.

Human auditory event-related potentials predict duration judgments.

PubMed

Bendixen, Alexandra; Grimm, Sabine; Schröger, Erich

2005-08-05

Internal clock models postulate a pulse accumulation process underlying timing activities, with more accumulated pulses resulting in longer perceived durations. We investigated whether this accumulation is reflected in the amplitude of event-related brain potentials (ERPs) elicited by auditory stimuli with durations of 400-600 ms. In a duration discrimination paradigm, we found more negative amplitudes to physically identical stimuli when they were judged as longer than the memorized standard duration (500 ms) as compared to being classified as shorter. This sustained negativity was already developing during the first 100 ms after stimulus onset. It could not be explained as a bias to respond with a particular hand (lateralized readiness potential), but rather reflects a processing difference between the tones to be judged as shorter or longer. Our results are in line with models of time processing which assume that higher numbers of accumulated pulses of a temporal processor result in an increase in perceived duration.

Short sleep duration as an independent predictor of cardiovascular events in Japanese patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Eguchi, Kazuo; Pickering, Thomas G; Schwartz, Joseph E; Hoshide, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2008-11-10

It is not known whether short duration of sleep is a predictor of future cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. To test the hypothesis that short duration of sleep is independently associated with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD), we performed ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring in 1255 subjects with hypertension (mean [SD] age, 70.4 [9.9] years) and followed them for a mean period of 50 (23) months. Short sleep duration was defined as less than 7.5 hours (20th percentile). Multivariable Cox hazard models predicting CVD events were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) for short sleep duration. A riser pattern was defined when mean nighttime systolic BP exceeded daytime systolic BP. The end point was a cardiovascular event: stroke, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), and sudden cardiac death. In multivariable analyses, short duration of sleep (<7.5 hours) was associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.06-2.66; P = .03). A synergistic interaction was observed between short sleep duration and the riser pattern (P = .09). When subjects were classified according to their sleep time and a riser vs nonriser pattern, the group with shorter sleep duration plus the riser pattern had a substantially and significantly higher incidence of CVD than the group with predominant normal sleep duration plus the nonriser pattern (HR, 4.43; 95% CI, 2.09-9.39; P < .001), independent of covariates. Short duration of sleep is associated with incident CVD risk and the combination of the riser pattern and short duration of sleep that is most strongly predictive of future CVD, independent of ambulatory BP levels. Physicians should inquire about sleep duration in the risk assessment of patients with hypertension.

Short Sleep Duration is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events in Japanese Hypertensive Patients

PubMed Central

Eguchi, Kazuo; Pickering, Thomas G.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Hoshide, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2013-01-01

Context It is not known whether short duration of sleep is a predictor of future cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients. Objective To test the hypothesis that short duration of sleep is independently associated with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Design, Setting, and Participants We performed ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) in 1255 subjects with hypertension (mean age: 70.4±9.9 years) and they were followed for an average of 50±23 months. Short sleep duration was defined as <7.5 hrs (20th percentile). Multivariable Cox hazard models predicting CVD events were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI for short sleep duration. A riser pattern was defined when average nighttime SBP exceeded daytime SBP. Main Outcome Measures The end point was cardiovascular events: stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and sudden cardiac death. Results In multivariable analyses, short duration of sleep (<7.5 hrs) was associated with incident CVD (HR=1.68; 1.06–2.66, P=.03). A synergistic interaction was observed between short sleep duration and the riser pattern (P=.089). When subjects were categorized on the basis of their sleep time and riser/non-riser patterns, the shorter sleep+riser group had a substantially and significantly higher incidence of CVD than the predominant normal sleep+non-riser group (HR=4.43;2.09–9.39, P<0.001), independent of covariates. Conclusions Short duration of sleep is associated with incident CVD risk, and the combination of riser pattern and short duration of sleep that is most strongly predictive of future CVD, independent of ambulatory BP levels. Physicians should inquire about sleep duration in the risk assessment of hypertensive patients. PMID:19001199

Scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Reed, David A; Washington, Rhyan L; Eckhardt, Alison; Anapol, Fred; Shahnoor, Nazima

2009-01-01

The biomechanical determinants of the scaling of chew cycle duration are important components of models of primate feeding systems at all levels, from the neuromechanical to the ecological. Chew cycle durations were estimated in 35 species of primates and analyzed in conjunction with data on morphological variables of the feeding system estimating moment of inertia of the mandible and force production capacity of the chewing muscles. Data on scaling of primate chew cycle duration were compared with the predictions of simple pendulum and forced mass-spring system models of the feeding system. The gravity-driven pendulum model best predicts the observed cycle duration scaling but is rejected as biomechanically unrealistic. The forced mass-spring model predicts larger increases in chew cycle duration with size than observed, but provides reasonable predictions of cycle duration scaling. We hypothesize that intrinsic properties of the muscles predict spring-like behavior of the jaw elevator muscles during opening and fast close phases of the jaw cycle and that modulation of stiffness by the central nervous system leads to spring-like properties during the slow close/power stroke phase. Strepsirrhines show no predictable relationship between chew cycle duration and jaw length. Anthropoids have longer chew cycle durations than nonprimate mammals with similar mandible lengths, possibly due to their enlarged symphyses, which increase the moment of inertia of the mandible. Deviations from general scaling trends suggest that both scaling of the jaw muscles and the inertial properties of the mandible are important in determining the scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

Phonological Encoding and Phonetic Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fricke, Melinda Denise

2013-01-01

Studies of connected speech have repeatedly shown that the contextual predictability of a word is related to its phonetic duration; more predictable words tend to be produced with shorter duration, when other factors are controlled for (Aylett & Turk, 2004, 2006; Bell et al., 2003; Bell, Brenier, Gregory, Girand, & Jurafsky, 2009; Gahl,…

Breastfeeding duration and offspring conduct problems: The moderating role of genetic risk.

PubMed

Jackson, Dylan B

2016-10-01

A sizable body of research has examined associations between breastfeeding and various facets of offspring development, including childhood behavioral problems. Notwithstanding the number of studies on the topic, breastfeeding has not consistently been linked to child misbehaviors. Moreover, empirical examinations of whether breastfeeding is differentially predictive of conduct problems among individuals with varying degrees of genetic risk are lacking. The present study examines whether a short duration of breastfeeding and genetic risk interact to predict conduct problems during childhood. A genetically informative design is employed to examine a subsample of twins from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study: Birth Cohort (ECLS-B), a nationally representative sample of American children. The findings suggest that a shorter duration of breastfeeding only enhances the risk of offspring conduct problems among children who possess high levels of genetic risk. Conversely, longer breastfeeding durations were found to protect against childhood behavioral problems when genetic risk was high. Indicators of genetic risk may help to distinguish individuals whose behavioral development is most sensitive to the duration of breastfeeding. Future research should seek to replicate and extend these findings by considering genetic factors as potential markers of differential susceptibility to breastfeeding duration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kevin D. Deane, MD/PhD...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...preclinical period of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development that is characterized by abnormalities of the immune system prior to the onset of the

Past makes future: role of pFC in prediction.

PubMed

Fuster, Joaquín M; Bressler, Steven L

2015-04-01

The pFC enables the essential human capacities for predicting future events and preadapting to them. These capacities rest on both the structure and dynamics of the human pFC. Structurally, pFC, together with posterior association cortex, is at the highest hierarchical level of cortical organization, harboring neural networks that represent complex goal-directed actions. Dynamically, pFC is at the highest level of the perception-action cycle, the circular processing loop through the cortex that interfaces the organism with the environment in the pursuit of goals. In its predictive and preadaptive roles, pFC supports cognitive functions that are critical for the temporal organization of future behavior, including planning, attentional set, working memory, decision-making, and error monitoring. These functions have a common future perspective and are dynamically intertwined in goal-directed action. They all utilize the same neural infrastructure: a vast array of widely distributed, overlapping, and interactive cortical networks of personal memory and semantic knowledge, named cognits, which are formed by synaptic reinforcement in learning and memory acquisition. From this cortex-wide reservoir of memory and knowledge, pFC generates purposeful, goal-directed actions that are preadapted to predicted future events.

Development of Response Spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations from Empirical Models for Fourier Spectra and Duration of Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, S. S.; Scherbaum, F.; Kuehn, N. M.; Stafford, P.; Edwards, B.

2014-12-01

In a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework, it still remains a challenge to adjust ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for application in different seismological environments. In this context, this study presents a complete framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE easily adjustable to different seismological conditions; and which does not suffer from the technical problems associated with the adjustment in response spectral domain. Essentially, the approach consists of an empirical FAS (Fourier Amplitude Spectrum) model and a duration model for ground motion which are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework to obtain the full response spectral ordinates. Additionally, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the frequency range defined by the data using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards & Faeh, (2013). To that end, an empirical model for a duration, which is tuned to optimize the fit between RVT based and observed response spectral ordinate, at each oscillator frequency is derived. Although, the main motive of the presented approach was to address the adjustability issues of response spectral GMPEs; comparison, of median predicted response spectra with the other regional models indicate that presented approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. Besides that, a significantly lower aleatory variability (σ<0.5 in log units) in comparison to other regional models, at shorter periods brands it to a potentially viable alternative to the classical regression (on response spectral ordinates) based GMPEs for seismic hazard studies in the near future. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

Prediction of Quality of life by Self-Efficacy, Pain Intensity and Pain Duration in Patient with Pain Disorders

PubMed Central

Yazdi-Ravandi, Saeid; Taslimi, Zahra; Jamshidian, Narges; Saberi, Hayede; Shams, Jamal; Haghparast, Abbas

2013-01-01

The quality of life (QOL) has been defined as “a person's sense of well-being that stems from satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the areas of life that are important to him/her”. It is generally accepted that pain intensity and duration have a negative impact on the QOL. One specific type of control is “self-efficacy”, or the belief that one has the ability to successfully engage in specific actions. The ability to adapt to pain may play an important role in maintaining the QOL. In this study, we investigated the role of self-efficacy, pain intensity, and pain duration in various domains of quality of life such as physical, psychological, social and environmental domains. In this study, 290 adult patients (146 men, 144 women) completed coping self-efficacy and the WHOQOL-BREF Questionnaire. Moreover, we illustrated numerical rating scale for pain intensity. The results were analyzed using SPSS version of 19.0 and means, descriptive correlation, and regression were calculated. Our data revealed that self-efficacy but not the pain duration could significantly anticipate the QOL and its four related domains (P<0.001). In addition, it is noticeable that the effect of self-efficacy on the prediction of QOL is much more obvious in the psychological domain. However, the pain intensity could predict all of the QOL domains (P<0.001) except social and environmental ones. In conclusion, to predict the quality of life (QOL) in person suffering from chronic pain, self-efficacy and pain intensity are more important factors than the pain duration and demographic variables. PMID:25337337

The Association between Outpatient Buprenorphine Detoxification Duration and Clinical Treatment Outcomes: A Review

PubMed Central

Sigmon, Stacey C.; Strain, Eric C.; Heil, Sarah H.; Higgins, Stephen T.

2011-01-01

Background The association between buprenorphine taper duration and treatment outcomes is not well understood. This review evaluated whether duration of outpatient buprenorphine taper is significantly associated with treatment outcomes. Methods Studies that were published in peer-reviewed journals, administered buprenorphine as an outpatient taper to opioid-dependent participants, and provided data on at least one of three primary treatment outcome measures (opioid abstinence, retention, peak withdrawal severity) were reviewed. Primary treatment outcomes were evaluated as a function of taper duration using hierarchical linear regressions using pre-taper maintenance as a cofactor. Results Twenty-eight studies were reviewed. Taper duration significantly predicted percent of opioid-negative samples provided during treatment, however pre-taper maintenance period predicted percent participants abstinent on the final day of treatment. High rates of relapse were reported. No significant association between taper duration and retention in treatment or peak withdrawal severity was observed. Conclusion The data reviewed here suggest taper duration is associated with opioid abstinence achieved during detoxification but not with other markers of treatment outcome. The reviewed studies varied widely on several parameters (e.g., frequency of urinalysis testing, provision of ancillary medications) that may influence treatment outcome and thus could have interfered with the ability to identify relationships between taper duration and outcomes. Future studies evaluating opioid detoxification should utilize rigorous experimental methods and report a wider range of outcome measures in order to help advance our understanding of the association between taper duration and treatment outcomes. PMID:21741781

Understanding the effects of predictability, duration, and spatial pattern of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages in two contrasting intermittent streams

PubMed Central

von Schiller, Daniel; Barberá, Gonzalo G.; Díaz, Angela M.; Arce, Maria Isabel; del Campo, Rubén; Tockner, Klement

2018-01-01

In the present study, we examined the effects of different drying conditions on the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages. We approached this objective by comparing invertebrate assemblages in perennial and intermittent sites along two intermittent Mediterranean streams with contrasting predictability, duration, and spatial patterns of drying: Fuirosos (high predictability, short duration, downstream drying pattern) and Rogativa (low predictability, long duration, patchy drying pattern). Specifically, we quantified the contribution of individual taxa to those differences, the degree of nestedness, and shifts in the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages along flow intermittence gradients. We observed greater effects of drying on the benthic invertebrate composition in Fuirosos than in Rogativa, resulting in a higher dissimilarity of assemblages between perennial and intermittent sites, as well as a lower degree of nestedness. Furthermore, a higher number of biotic metrics related to richness, abundance and biological traits were significantly different between perennial and intermittent sites in Fuirosos, despite a shorter dry period compared to Rogativa. At the same time, slightly different responses were detected during post-drying (autumn) than pre-drying (spring) conditions in this stream. In Rogativa, shifts in benthic invertebrate assemblages along increasing gradients of flow intermittence were found for three metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) and Odonata, Coleoptera and Heteroptera (OCH) abundances and aerial active dispersal. Furthermore, we demonstrated that combined gradients of dry period duration and distance to nearest perennial reach can generate complex, and different, responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages, depending on the flow intermittence metric. Our study advances the notion that special attention should be paid to the predictability, duration and

Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brentner, Kenneth S.

1997-01-01

Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

Sleep duration, cognitive decline, and dementia risk in older women

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Espeland, Mark A.; Brunner, Robert L.; Lovato, Laura C.; Wallace, Robert B.; Leng, Xiaoyan; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Robinson, Jennifer G.; Kotchen, Jane M.; Johnson, Karen C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Sarto, Gloria E.; Mysiw, W. Jerry

2015-01-01

Background Consistent evidence linking habitual sleep duration with risks of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia is lacking. Methods We conducted a prospective study on 7444 community-dwelling women (aged 65–80) with self-reported sleep duration, within the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study in 1995–2008. Incident MCI/dementia cases were ascertained by validated protocols. Cox models were used to adjust for multiple sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and other clinical characteristics. Results We found a statistically significant (p=0.03) V-shaped association, with a higher MCI/dementia risk in women with either short (≤6 hours/night) or long (≥8 hours/night) sleep duration (vs.7 hours/night). The multicovariate-adjusted hazard for MCI/dementia was increased by 36% in short sleepers irrespective of CVD, and by 35% in long sleepers without CVD. A similar V-shaped association was found with cognitive decline. Conclusion In older women, habitual sleep duration predicts the future risk for cognitive impairments including dementia, independent of vascular risk factors. PMID:26086180

Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

PubMed

Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

2017-03-01

The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having

Predicting future learning from baseline network architecture.

PubMed

Mattar, Marcelo G; Wymbs, Nicholas F; Bock, Andrew S; Aguirre, Geoffrey K; Grafton, Scott T; Bassett, Danielle S

2018-05-15

Human behavior and cognition result from a complex pattern of interactions between brain regions. The flexible reconfiguration of these patterns enables behavioral adaptation, such as the acquisition of a new motor skill. Yet, the degree to which these reconfigurations depend on the brain's baseline sensorimotor integration is far from understood. Here, we asked whether spontaneous fluctuations in sensorimotor networks at baseline were predictive of individual differences in future learning. We analyzed functional MRI data from 19 participants prior to six weeks of training on a new motor skill. We found that visual-motor connectivity was inversely related to learning rate: sensorimotor autonomy at baseline corresponded to faster learning in the future. Using three additional scans, we found that visual-motor connectivity at baseline is a relatively stable individual trait. These results suggest that individual differences in motor skill learning can be predicted from sensorimotor autonomy at baseline prior to task execution. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy-related influences on variation in breastfeeding duration among indigenous Maya women from Guatemala.

PubMed

McKerracher, Luseadra J; Collard, Mark; Altman, Rachel M; Sellen, Daniel; Nepomnaschy, Pablo A

2017-04-01

The causes of variation in breastfeeding duration in humans are poorly understood, but life history factors related to maternal energetics drive much of the variation in lactation duration in nonhuman animals. With this in mind, we investigated whether four energy-related factors influence variation in breastfeeding duration in a non-industrial human population: (1) mortality risk during mother's development (assessed via mother's adult height), (2) reliance on nutrient-dense weaning foods, (3) access to and need for help with infant feeding and care ("allomaternal care"), and (4) maternal tradeoffs between current and future reproduction (measured via child's birth order). The data pertain to 51 Kakchiquel-speaking Maya mothers and 283 children from a village in rural Guatemala. We developed a linear mixed model to evaluate the relationships between breastfeeding duration and the energy-related factors. Duration of breastfeeding was associated with two of the energy-related factors in the ways we predicted but not with the other two. Contrary to predictions, taller mothers breastfed for shorter periods and we found no evidence that weanling diet quality impacts breastfeeding duration. As predicted, women who had more help with infants breastfed for shorter periods, and later-born infants breastfed longer than earlier-born ones. The results regarding allomaternal care suggest that help reduces mothers' lactation demands. The energy saved may be redirected to increasing fecundity or investment in other children. The birth order result suggests that children born to mothers nearing reproductive senescence receive higher levels of investment, which likely impacts children's fitness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

2016-01-11

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

PubMed Central

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

2016-01-01

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heller, Rene; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

2016-01-01

We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

2008-01-01

Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting future violence among individuals with psychopathy.

PubMed

Coid, Jeremy W; Ullrich, Simone; Kallis, Constantinos

2013-11-01

Structured risk assessment aims to help clinicians classify offenders according to likelihood of future violent and criminal behaviour. We investigated how confident clinicians can be using three commonly used instruments (HCR-20, VRAG, OGRS-II) in individuals with different diagnoses. Moderate to good predictive accuracy for future violence was achieved for released prisoners with no mental disorder, low to moderate for clinical syndromes and personality disorder, but accuracy was no better than chance for individuals with psychopathy. Comprehensive diagnostic assessment should precede an assessment of risk. Risk assessment instruments cannot be relied upon when managing public risk from individuals with psychopathy.

Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

PubMed

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

2018-02-01

Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

Spatio-temporal variation in the incubation duration and sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings: implication for future management.

PubMed

dei Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Santos, Alexsandro S; Soares, Luciano S; Lopez, Gustave G; Godfrey, Matthew H; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Fuentes, Mariana M P B

2014-08-01

Climate change poses a unique threat to species with temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), such as marine turtles, where increases in temperature can result in extreme sex ratio biases. Knowledge of the primary sex ratio of populations with TSD is key for providing a baseline to inform management strategies and to accurately predict how future climate changes may affect turtle populations. However, there is a lack of robust data on offspring sex ratio at appropriate temporal and spatial scales to inform management decisions. To address this, we estimate the primary sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, from incubation duration of 5514 in situ nests from 10 nesting beaches from two regions in Brazil over the last 27 years. A strong female bias was estimated in all beaches, with 96% and 89% average female sex ratios produced in Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). Both inter-annual (BA, 88 to 99%; RN, 75 to 96% female) and inter-beach (BA, 92% to 97%; RN, 81% to 92% female) variability in mean offspring sex ratio was observed. These findings will guide management decisions in Brazil and provide further evidence of highly female-skew sex ratios in hawksbill turtles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

PubMed

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Cai, Ting; Mi, Zhongyuan; Georgopoulos, Panos

2015-02-01

Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5%-30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0-6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.

Sensor-derived physical activity parameters can predict future falls in people with dementia

PubMed Central

Schwenk, Michael; Hauer, Klaus; Zieschang, Tania; Englert, Stefan; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for simple clinical tools that can objectively assess fall risk in people with dementia. Wearable sensors seem to have potential for fall prediction, however, there has been limited work performed in this important area. Objective To explore the validity of sensor-derived physical activity (PA) parameters for predicting future falls in people with dementia. To compare sensor-based fall risk assessment with conventional fall risk measures. Methods A cohort study of people with confirmed dementia discharged from a geriatric rehabilitation ward. PA was quantified using 24-hour motion-sensor monitoring at the beginning of the study. PA parameters (percentage of walking, standing, sitting, lying; duration of single walking, standing, and sitting bouts) were extracted using specific algorithms. Conventional assessment included performance-based tests (Timed-up-and-go test, Performance-Oriented-Mobility-Assessment, 5-chair stand) and questionnaires (cognition, ADL-status, fear of falling, depression, previous faller). Outcome measures were fallers (at least one fall in the 3-month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. Results Seventy-seven people were included in the study (age 81.8 ± 6.3; community dwelling 88%, institutionalized 12%). Surprisingly, fallers and non-fallers did not differ on any conventional assessment (p= 0.069–0.991), except for ‘previous faller’ (p= 0.006). Interestingly, several PA parameters discriminated between groups. The ‘walking bouts average duration’, ‘longest walking bout duration’ and ‘walking bouts duration variability’ were lower in fallers, compared to non-fallers (p= 0.008–0.027). The ‘standing bouts average duration’ was higher in fallers (p= 0.050). Two variables, ‘walking bouts average duration’ [odds ratio (OR) 0.79, p= 0.012] and ‘previous faller’ [OR 4.44, p= 0.007] were identified as independent predictors for falls. The OR for a ‘walking bouts average duration’ of

Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brentner, Kenneth S.; Farassat, F.

1992-01-01

The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

PubMed

Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

2018-03-01

Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

PubMed Central

Catania, Kenneth C.

2010-01-01

Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

The predictive value of P-wave duration by signal-averaged electrocardiogram in acute ST elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Shturman, Alexander; Bickel, Amitai; Atar, Shaul

2012-08-01

The prognostic value of P-wave duration has been previously evaluated by signal-averaged ECG (SAECG) in patients with various arrhythmias not associated with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To investigate the clinical correlates and prognostic value of P-wave duration in patients with ST elevation AMI (STEMI). The patients (n = 89) were evaluated on the first, second and third day after admission, as well as one week and one month post-AMI. Survival was determined 2 years after the index STEMI. In comparison with the upper normal range of P-wave duration (<120 msec), the P-wave duration in STEMI patients was significantly increased on the first day (135.31 +/- 29.29 msec, P < 0.001), up to day 7 (127.17 +/- 30.02 msec, P = 0.0455). The most prominent differences were observed in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < or = 40% (155.47 +/- 33.8 msec), compared to LVEF > 40% (128.79 +/- 28 msec) (P = 0.001). P-wave duration above 120 msec was significantly correlated with increased complication rate; namely, sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmia (36%), congestive heart failure (41%), atrial fibrillation (11%), recurrent angina (14%), and re-infarction (8%) (P = 0.012, odds ratio 4.267, 95% confidence interval 1.37-13.32). P-wave duration of 126 msec on the day of admission was found to have the highest predictive value for in-hospital complications including LVEF 40% (area under the curve 0.741, P < 0.001). However, we did not find a significant correlation between P-wave duration and mortality after multivariate analysis. P-wave duration as evaluated by SAECG correlates negatively with LVEF post-STEMI, and P-wave duration above 126 msec can be utilized as a non-invasive predictor of in-hospital complications and low LVEF following STEMI.

Peak oxygen uptake, ventilatory efficiency and QRS-duration predict event free survival in patients late after surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot.

PubMed

Müller, Jan; Hager, Alfred; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Derrick, Graham; Buys, Roselien; Dubowy, Karl-Otto; Takken, Tim; Orwat, Stefan; Inuzuka, Ryo; Vanhees, Luc; Gatzoulis, Michael; Giardini, Alessandro

2015-10-01

Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) have an increased long-term risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Risk stratification in this population is difficult. Initial evidence suggests that cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) may be helpful to risk-stratify patients with repaired ToF. We studied 875 patients after surgical repair for ToF (358 females, age 25.5 ± 11.7 year, range 7-75 years) who underwent CPET between 1999 and 2009. During a mean follow-up of 4.1 ± 2.6 years after CPET, 30 patients (3.4%) died or had sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). 225 patients (25.7%) had other cardiac related events (emergency admission, surgery, or catheter interventions). On multivariable Cox regression-analysis, %predicted peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2 %) (p=0.001), resting QRS duration (p=0.030) and age (p<0.001) emerged as independent predictors of mortality or sustained VT. Patients with a peak V˙O2 ≤ 65% of predicted and a resting QRS duration ≥ 170 ms had a 11.4-fold risk of death or sustained VT. Ventilatory efficiency expressed as V˙E/V˙CO2 slope (p<0.001), peak V˙O2 % (p=.001), QRS duration (p=.001) and age (p=0.046) independently predicted event free survival. V˙E/V˙CO2 slope ≥ 31.0, peak V˙O2 % ≤ 65% and QRS duration ≥ 170 ms were the cut-off points with best sensitivity and specificity to detect an unfavorable outcome. CPET is an important predictive tool that may assist in the risk stratification of patients with ToF. Subjects with a poor exercise capacity in addition to a prolonged QRS duration have a substantially increased risk for death or sustained ventricular tachycardia, as well as for cardiac-related hospitalizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

PubMed

Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

2013-12-01

Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

Systematic review of general thoracic surgery articles to identify predictors of operating room case durations.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Dexter, Elisabeth U; Masursky, Danielle; Nussmeier, Nancy A

2008-04-01

Previous studies of operating room (OR) information systems data over the past two decades have shown how to predict case durations using the combination of scheduled procedure(s), individual surgeon and assistant(s), and type of anesthetic(s). We hypothesized that the accuracy of case duration prediction could be improved by the use of other electronic medical record data (e.g., patient weight or surgeon notes using standardized vocabularies). General thoracic surgery was used as a model specialty because much of its workload is elective (scheduled) and many of its cases are long. PubMed was searched for thoracic surgery papers reporting operative time, surgical time, etc. The systematic literature review identified 48 papers reporting statistically significant differences in perioperative times. There were multiple reports of differences in OR times based on the procedure(s), perioperative team including primary surgeon, and type of anesthetic, in that sequence of importance. All such detail may not be known when the case is originally scheduled and thus may require an updated duration the day before surgery. Although the use of these categorical data from OR systems can result in few historical data for estimating each case's duration, bias and imprecision of case duration estimates are unlikely to be affected. There was a report of a difference in case duration based on additional information. However, the incidence of the procedure for the diagnosis was so uncommon as to be unlikely to affect OR management. Matching findings of prior studies using OR information system data, multiple case series show that it is important to rely on the precise procedure(s), surgical team, and type of anesthetic when estimating case durations. OR information systems need to incorporate the statistical methods designed for small numbers of prior surgical cases. Future research should focus on the most effective methods to update the prediction of each case's duration as these

Cultural variation in the use of current life satisfaction to predict the future.

PubMed

Oishi, S; Wyer, R S; Colcombe, S J

2000-03-01

Three studies examined cultural and situational influences on the tendency for people to use their current life satisfaction to predict future life events. On the basis of the self-enhancement literature, it was predicted that either writing about a positive personal experience or reading about another's negative experience would lead European Americans to focus their attention on internal attributes and thus would lead them to use their current life satisfaction in predicting the future. Conversely, on the basis of the self-criticism literature, it was predicted that these same conditions would lead Asian Americans to focus their attention on external factors and, therefore, would decrease their likelihood of using their current life satisfaction to predict the future. Studies 1 and 2 supported these hypotheses. Study 3 showed that these patterns could be obtained by subliminally priming concepts associated with individualism and collectivism.

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-11-01

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-01-01

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems. PMID:29104256

Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

2011-12-01

There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

Breastfeeding Duration Predicts Greater Maternal Sensitivity over the Next Decade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Jennifer M.; Schofield, Thomas J.; Papp, Lauren M.

2018-01-01

The current study represents the first longitudinal investigation of the potential effects of breastfeeding duration on maternal sensitivity over the following decade. This study also examined whether infant attachment security at 24 months would mediate longitudinal relations between breastfeeding duration and changes in maternal sensitivity over…

Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

PubMed

Yang, Z

1999-09-01

In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

Impacts of leaf age and heat stress duration on photosynthetic gas exchange and foliar nonstructural carbohydrates in Coffea arabica

Treesearch

Danielle E. Marias; Frederick C. Meinzer; Christopher Still

2017-01-01

Given future climate predictions of increased temperature, and frequency and intensity of heat waves in the tropics, suitable habitat to grow ecologically, economically, and socially valuable Coffea arabica is severely threatened. We investigated how leaf age and heat stress duration impact recovery from heat stress in C. arabica...

Changing word usage predicts changing word durations in New Zealand English.

PubMed

Sóskuthy, Márton; Hay, Jennifer

2017-09-01

This paper investigates the emergence of lexicalized effects of word usage on word duration by looking at parallel changes in usage and duration over 130years in New Zealand English. Previous research has found that frequent words are shorter, informative words are longer, and words in utterance-final position are also longer. It has also been argued that some of these patterns are not simply online adjustments, but are incorporated into lexical representations. While these studies tend to focus on the synchronic aspects of such patterns, our corpus shows that word-usage patterns and word durations are not static over time. Many words change in duration and also change with respect to frequency, informativity and likelihood of occurring utterance-finally. Analysis of changing word durations over this time period shows substantial patterns of co-adaptation between word usage and word durations. Words that are increasing in frequency are becoming shorter. Words that are increasing/decreasing in informativity show a change in the same direction in duration (e.g. increasing informativity is associated with increasing duration). And words that are increasingly appearing utterance-finally are lengthening. These effects exist independently of the local effects of the predictors. For example, words that are increasing utterance-finally lengthen in all positions, including utterance-medially. We show that these results are compatible with a number of different views about lexical representations, but they cannot be explained without reference to a production-perception loop that allows speakers to update their representations dynamically on the basis of their experience. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

Treesearch

Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

1999-01-01

We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

Predicting past and future diameter growth for trees in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2006-01-01

Tree diameter growth models are widely used in forestry applications, often to predict tree size at a future point in time. Also, there are instances where projections of past diameters are needed. A relative diameter growth model was developed to allow prediction of both future and past growth rates. Coefficients were estimated for 15 species groups that cover most...

Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunn, L. S.; Blake, S.; Jones, M. C.; Rymer, H.

2014-01-01

The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data have been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010. Data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption duration between the years 1600 and 1669 is found to be statistically different from that following it and the forecasting model is run on two datasets of Mt. Etna flank eruption durations: 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect on the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms `likely' and `unlikely' to probabilities of 66 % or more and 33 % or less, respectively, the forecasting model based on the 1600-2010 dataset indicates that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 86 days (± 29 days). This approach can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

PubMed

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

Variability in Cumulative Habitual Sleep Duration Predicts Waking Functional Connectivity.

PubMed

Khalsa, Sakh; Mayhew, Stephen D; Przezdzik, Izabela; Wilson, Rebecca; Hale, Joanne; Goldstone, Aimee; Bagary, Manny; Bagshaw, Andrew P

2016-01-01

We examined whether interindividual differences in habitual sleep patterns, quantified as the cumulative habitual total sleep time (cTST) over a 2-w period, were reflected in waking measurements of intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity (FC) between major nodes of three intrinsically connected networks (ICNs): default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), and central executive network (CEN). Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study using seed-based FC analysis combined with 14-d wrist actigraphy, sleep diaries, and subjective questionnaires (N = 33 healthy adults, mean age 34.3, standard deviation ± 11.6 y). Data were statistically analyzed using multiple linear regression. Fourteen consecutive days of wrist actigraphy in participant's home environment and fMRI scanning on day 14 at the Birmingham University Imaging Centre. Seed-based FC analysis on ICNs from resting-state fMRI data and multiple linear regression analysis performed for each ICN seed and target. cTST was used to predict FC (controlling for age). cTST was specific predictor of intranetwork FC when the mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) region of the DMN was used as a seed for FC, with a positive correlation between FC and cTST observed. No significant relationship between FC and cTST was seen for any pair of nodes not including the MPFC. Internetwork FC between the DMN (MPFC) and SN (right anterior insula) was also predicted by cTST, with a negative correlation observed between FC and cTST. This study improves understanding of the relationship between intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity of intrinsically connected networks (ICNs) in relation to habitual sleep quality and duration. The cumulative amount of sleep that participants achieved over a 14-d period was significantly predictive of intranetwork and inter-network functional connectivity of ICNs, an observation that may underlie the link between sleep status and cognitive performance. �

The future of predictive microbiology: strategic research, innovative applications and great expectations.

PubMed

McMeekin, Tom; Bowman, John; McQuestin, Olivia; Mellefont, Lyndal; Ross, Tom; Tamplin, Mark

2008-11-30

This paper considers the future of predictive microbiology by exploring the balance that exists between science, applications and expectations. Attention is drawn to the development of predictive microbiology as a sub-discipline of food microbiology and of technologies that are required for its applications, including a recently developed biological indicator. As we move into the era of systems biology, in which physiological and molecular information will be increasingly available for incorporation into models, predictive microbiologists will be faced with new experimental and data handling challenges. Overcoming these hurdles may be assisted by interacting with microbiologists and mathematicians developing models to describe the microbial role in ecosystems other than food. Coupled with a commitment to maintain strategic research, as well as to develop innovative technologies, the future of predictive microbiology looks set to fulfil "great expectations".

Associated Information Increases Subjective Perception of Duration.

PubMed

Schweitzer, Richard; Trapp, Sabrina; Bar, Moshe

2017-08-01

Our sense of time is prone to various biases. For instance, one factor that can dilate an event's perceived duration is the violation of predictions; when a series of repeated stimuli is interrupted by an unpredictable oddball. On the other hand, when the probability of a repetition itself is manipulated, predictable conditions can also increase estimated duration. This suggests that manipulations of expectations have different or even opposing effects on time perception. In previous studies, expectations were generated because stimuli were repeated or because the likelihood of a sequence or a repetition was varied. In the natural environment, however, expectations are often built via associative processes, for example, the context of a kitchen promotes the expectation of plates, appliances, and other associated objects. Here, we manipulated such association-based expectations by using oddballs that were either contextually associated or nonassociated with the standard items. We find that duration was more strongly overestimated for contextually associated oddballs. We reason that top-down attention is biased toward associated information, and thereby dilates subjective duration for associated oddballs. Based on this finding, we propose an interplay between top-down attention and predictive processing in the perception of time.

Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

2016-04-01

Future water management challenges such as flood risk are highly relevant to climate and land use changes. Climate change is expected to lead to an ongoing intensification of effects on changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration which could exacerbate flooding issues. Land use changes, modifications of agricultural practices and urbanization alter the apportionment of the different hydrological processes at the basin scale and could significantly affect the seasonality of streamflow. At the local scale, the consequences of climate and land use changes on flood occurrence and magnitude are a major issue for the economic development and management policy of basin area. This study apply a methodology for investigating the potential consequences of land use ,as well as precipitation and temperature changes on flood occurrence, duration and magnitude, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and hydrological model parameters. The discharge time series predicted for the future were simulated from a calibrated and validated distributed hydrological model. The model was run from inputs which are -predicted rainfall time series based on scenarios of changes identified from a literature review, -future evapotranspiration rates assessed from temperature changes identified from a literature review -and scenarios of land-use changes The study area, the Fengle River basin (1500 km2), is located in the northeast part of Yangtze basin. The river is one of the main tributaries of the Chao Lake, the fifth largest natural lake of China. The lake catchment is 9130 km2 in area, including the city of Hefei and a large extent of agricultural and rural areas. Many changes are expected in land use and agricultural practices in the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. In the current period heavy storms and floods occur predominantly

Automatic mental associations predict future choices of undecided decision-makers.

PubMed

Galdi, Silvia; Arcuri, Luciano; Gawronski, Bertram

2008-08-22

Common wisdom holds that choice decisions are based on conscious deliberations of the available information about choice options. On the basis of recent insights about unconscious influences on information processing, we tested whether automatic mental associations of undecided individuals bias future choices in a manner such that these choices reflect the evaluations implied by earlier automatic associations. With the use of a computer-based, speeded categorization task to assess automatic mental associations (i.e., associations that are activated unintentionally, difficult to control, and not necessarily endorsed at a conscious level) and self-report measures to assess consciously endorsed beliefs and choice preferences, automatic associations of undecided participants predicted changes in consciously reported beliefs and future choices over a period of 1 week. Conversely, for decided participants, consciously reported beliefs predicted changes in automatic associations and future choices over the same period. These results indicate that decision-makers sometimes have already made up their mind at an unconscious level, even when they consciously indicate that they are still undecided.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blake, Larry J.

After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

Factors predicting the duration of adrenal insufficiency in patients successfully treated for Cushing disease and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome.

PubMed

Prete, Alessandro; Paragliola, Rosa Maria; Bottiglieri, Filomena; Rota, Carlo Antonio; Pontecorvi, Alfredo; Salvatori, Roberto; Corsello, Salvatore Maria

2017-03-01

Successful treatment of Cushing syndrome causes transient or permanent adrenal insufficiency deriving from endogenous hypercortisolism-induced hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression. We analyzed pre-treatment factors potentially affecting the duration of adrenal insufficiency. We conducted a retrospective analysis on patients successfully treated for Cushing disease (15 patients) who underwent transsphenoidal surgery, and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (31 patients) who underwent unilateral adrenalectomy, divided into patients with overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (14 patients) and subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (17 patients). Epidemiological data, medical history, and hormonal parameters depending on the etiology of hypercortisolism were collected and compared to the duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of follow-up after surgery for Cushing disease and primary adrenal Cushing syndrome was 70 and 48 months, respectively. In the Cushing disease group, the median duration of adrenal insufficiency after transsphenoidal surgery was 15 months: younger age at diagnosis and longer duration of signs and symptoms of hypercortisolism before diagnosis and surgery were associated with longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of adrenal insufficiency was 6 months for subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome and 18.5 months for overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome. The biochemical severity of hypercortisolism, the grade of hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression, and treatment with ketoconazole before surgery accounted for longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. In patients with Cushing disease, younger age and delayed diagnosis and treatment predict longer need for glucocorticoid replacement therapy after successful transsphenoidal surgery. In patients with primary adrenal Cushing syndrome, the severity of hypercortisolism plays a primary role in influencing the duration of

Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

1997-01-01

At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

NAQ's 40th Birthday Nursing: Predictions From the Past; Predictions for the Future, Parts I & II.

PubMed

McClure, Margaret L; Batcheller, Joyce

2016-01-01

The following two articles relate to Nursing's past and future, described through a series of predictions made by one of Nursing's great leaders Margaret L. McClure (Maggie McClure). It is reprinted from NAQ Fall 2000, Volume 25, Issue 1. The second article, by another great leader, Joyce Batcheller, DNP, RN, NEA-BC, FAAN, is a follow up on those predictions, reflecting on Nursing today and tommorow.

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

2017-11-01

Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

Predictive factors of adherence to frequency and duration components in home exercise programs for neck and low back pain: an observational study

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Evidence suggests that to facilitate physical activity sedentary people may adhere to one component of exercise prescriptions (intensity, duration or frequency) without adhering to other components. Some experts have provided evidence for determinants of adherence to different components among healthy people. However, our understanding remains scarce in this area for patients with neck or low back pain. The aims of this study are to determine whether patients with neck or low back pain have different rates of adherence to exercise components of frequency per week and duration per session when prescribed with a home exercise program, and to identify if adherence to both exercise components have distinct predictive factors. Methods A cohort of one hundred eighty-four patients with chronic neck or low back pain who attended physiotherapy in eight primary care centers were studied prospectively one month after intervention. The study had three measurement periods: at baseline (measuring characteristics of patients and pain), at the end of physiotherapy intervention (measuring characteristics of the home exercise program) and a month later (measuring professional behaviors during clinical encounters, environmental factors and self-efficacy, and adherence behavior). Results Adherence to duration per session (70.9% ± 7.1) was more probable than adherence to frequency per week (60.7% ± 7.0). Self-efficacy was a relevant factor for both exercise components (p < 0.05). The total number of exercises prescribed was predictive of frequency adherence (p < 0.05). Professional behaviors have a distinct influence on exercise components. Frequency adherence is more probable if patients received clarification of their doubts (adjusted OR: 4.1; p < 0.05), and duration adherence is more probable if they are supervised during the learning of exercises (adjusted OR: 3.3; p < 0.05). Conclusion We have shown in a clinic-based study that adherence to exercise prescription

Modeling procedure and surgical times for current procedural terminology-anesthesia-surgeon combinations and evaluation in terms of case-duration prediction and operating room efficiency: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Stepaniak, Pieter S; Heij, Christiaan; Mannaerts, Guido H H; de Quelerij, Marcel; de Vries, Guus

2009-10-01

Gains in operating room (OR) scheduling may be obtained by using accurate statistical models to predict surgical and procedure times. The 3 main contributions of this article are the following: (i) the validation of Strum's results on the statistical distribution of case durations, including surgeon effects, using OR databases of 2 European hospitals, (ii) the use of expert prior expectations to predict durations of rarely observed cases, and (iii) the application of the proposed methods to predict case durations, with an analysis of the resulting increase in OR efficiency. We retrospectively reviewed all recorded surgical cases of 2 large European teaching hospitals from 2005 to 2008, involving 85,312 cases and 92,099 h in total. Surgical times tended to be skewed and bounded by some minimally required time. We compared the fit of the normal distribution with that of 2- and 3-parameter lognormal distributions for case durations of a range of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT)-anesthesia combinations, including possible surgeon effects. For cases with very few observations, we investigated whether supplementing the data information with surgeons' prior guesses helps to obtain better duration estimates. Finally, we used best fitting duration distributions to simulate the potential efficiency gains in OR scheduling. The 3-parameter lognormal distribution provides the best results for the case durations of CPT-anesthesia (surgeon) combinations, with an acceptable fit for almost 90% of the CPTs when segmented by the factor surgeon. The fit is best for surgical times and somewhat less for total procedure times. Surgeons' prior guesses are helpful for OR management to improve duration estimates of CPTs with very few (<10) observations. Compared with the standard way of case scheduling using the mean of the 3-parameter lognormal distribution for case scheduling reduces the mean overreserved OR time per case up to 11.9 (11.8-12.0) min (55.6%) and the mean underreserved

Development of Predictive Energy Management Strategies for Hybrid Electric Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, David

Studies have shown that obtaining and utilizing information about the future state of vehicles can improve vehicle fuel economy (FE). However, there has been a lack of research into the impact of real-world prediction error on FE improvements, and whether near-term technologies can be utilized to improve FE. This study seeks to research the effect of prediction error on FE. First, a speed prediction method is developed, and trained with real-world driving data gathered only from the subject vehicle (a local data collection method). This speed prediction method informs a predictive powertrain controller to determine the optimal engine operation for various prediction durations. The optimal engine operation is input into a high-fidelity model of the FE of a Toyota Prius. A tradeoff analysis between prediction duration and prediction fidelity was completed to determine what duration of prediction resulted in the largest FE improvement. Results demonstrate that 60-90 second predictions resulted in the highest FE improvement over the baseline, achieving up to a 4.8% FE increase. A second speed prediction method utilizing simulated vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication was developed to understand if incorporating near-term technologies could be utilized to further improve prediction fidelity. This prediction method produced lower variation in speed prediction error, and was able to realize a larger FE improvement over the local prediction method for longer prediction durations, achieving up to 6% FE improvement. This study concludes that speed prediction and prediction-informed optimal vehicle energy management can produce FE improvements with real-world prediction error and drive cycle variability, as up to 85% of the FE benefit of perfect speed prediction was achieved with the proposed prediction methods.

Word Durations in Non-Native English

PubMed Central

Baker, Rachel E.; Baese-Berk, Melissa; Bonnasse-Gahot, Laurent; Kim, Midam; Van Engen, Kristin J.; Bradlow, Ann R.

2010-01-01

In this study, we compare the effects of English lexical features on word duration for native and non-native English speakers and for non-native speakers with different L1s and a range of L2 experience. We also examine whether non-native word durations lead to judgments of a stronger foreign accent. We measured word durations in English paragraphs read by 12 American English (AE), 20 Korean, and 20 Chinese speakers. We also had AE listeners rate the `accentedness' of these non-native speakers. AE speech had shorter durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, greater reduction of function words, and less between-speaker variance than non-native speech. However, both AE and non-native speakers showed sensitivity to lexical predictability by reducing second mentions and high frequency words. Non-native speakers with more native-like word durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, and greater function word reduction were perceived as less accented. Overall, these findings identify word duration as an important and complex feature of foreign-accented English. PMID:21516172

Sleep Duration and Waist Circumference in Adults: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sperry, Susan D.; Scully, Iiona D.; Gramzow, Richard H.; Jorgensen, Randall S.

2015-01-01

Background: Previous research has demonstrated a relation between insufficient sleep and overall obesity. Waist circumference (WC), a measure of central adiposity, has been demonstrated to improve prediction of health risk. However, recent research on the relation of insufficient sleep duration to WC in adults has yielded inconsistent findings. Objectives: To assess the magnitude and the consistency of the relation of insufficient sleep and WC Methods: A systematic search of Internet and research databases using Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, and PsycINFO through July 2013 was conducted. All articles in English with adult human subjects that included measurements of WC and sleep duration were reviewed. A random effects meta-analysis and regression analyses were performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were checked. Results are expressed as Pearson correlations (r; 95% confidence interval). Results: Of 1,376 articles, 30 met inclusion criteria and 21 studies (22 samples for a total of 56,259 participants) provided sufficient data for meta-analysis. Results showed a significant negative relation between sleep duration and WC (r = −0.10, P < 0.0001) with significant heterogeneity related to sleep comparison method. Potential moderators of the relation between sleep duration and WC were not significant. Funnel plots showed no indication of publication bias. In addition, a fail-safe N calculation indicated that 418 studies with null effects would be necessary to bring the overall mean effect size to a trivial value of r = −0.005. Conclusions: Internationally, cross-sectional studies demonstrate a significant negative relation between sleep duration and waist circumference, indicating shorter sleep durations covary with central adiposity. Future research should include prospective studies. Citation: Sperry SD, Scully ID, Gramzow RH, Jorgensen RS. Sleep duration and waist circumference in adults: a meta-analysis. SLEEP 2015;38(8):1269–1276. PMID:25581918

Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients.

PubMed

Custodio, Nilton; Lira, David; Herrera-Perez, Eder; Montesinos, Rosa; Castro-Suarez, Sheila; Cuenca-Alfaro, Jose; Cortijo, Patricia

2016-12-01

Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate model to predict falling in PD patients. Prospective cohort with forty-nine PD patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate predictive performance of the purposed multivariate model. The median of PD duration and UPDRS-III score in the cohort was 6 years and 24 points, respectively. Falls occurred in 18 PD patients (30%). Predictive factors for falling identified by univariate analysis were age, PD duration, physical activity, and scores of UPDRS motor, FOG, ACE, IFS, PFAQ and GDS ( p -value < 0.001), as well as fear of falling score ( p -value = 0.04). The final multivariate model (PD duration, FOG, ACE, and physical activity) showed an AUC = 0.9282 (correctly classified = 89.83%; sensitivity = 92.68%; specificity = 83.33%). This study showed that our multivariate model have a high performance to predict falling in a sample of PD patients.

Sleep Duration and Waist Circumference in Adults: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sperry, Susan D; Scully, Iiona D; Gramzow, Richard H; Jorgensen, Randall S

2015-08-01

Previous research has demonstrated a relation between insufficient sleep and overall obesity. Waist circumference (WC), a measure of central adiposity, has been demonstrated to improve prediction of health risk. However, recent research on the relation of insufficient sleep duration to WC in adults has yielded inconsistent findings. To assess the magnitude and the consistency of the relation of insufficient sleep and WC. A systematic search of Internet and research databases using Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, and PsycINFO through July 2013 was conducted. All articles in English with adult human subjects that included measurements of WC and sleep duration were reviewed. A random effects meta-analysis and regression analyses were performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were checked. Results are expressed as Pearson correlations (r; 95% confidence interval). Of 1,376 articles, 30 met inclusion criteria and 21 studies (22 samples for a total of 56,259 participants) provided sufficient data for meta-analysis. Results showed a significant negative relation between sleep duration and WC (r = -0.10, P < 0.0001) with significant heterogeneity related to sleep comparison method. Potential moderators of the relation between sleep duration and WC were not significant. Funnel plots showed no indication of publication bias. In addition, a fail-safe N calculation indicated that 418 studies with null effects would be necessary to bring the overall mean effect size to a trivial value of r = -0.005. Internationally, cross-sectional studies demonstrate a significant negative relation between sleep duration and waist circumference, indicating shorter sleep durations covary with central adiposity. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Predicting durations of online collective actions based on Peaks' heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Peng; Nie, Shizhao; Wang, Zheng; Jing, Ziwei; Yang, Jianwu; Qi, Zhongxiang; Pujia, Wangmo

2018-02-01

Capturing the whole process of collective actions, the peak model contains four stages, including Prepare, Outbreak, Peak, and Vanish. Based on the peak model, one of the key variables, factors and parameters are further investigated in this paper, which is the rate between peaks and spans. Although the durations or spans and peaks' heights are highly diversified, it seems that the ratio between them is quite stable. If the rate's regularity is discovered, we can predict how long the collective action lasts and when it ends based on the peak's height. In this work, we combined mathematical simulations and empirical big data of 148 cases to explore the regularity of ratio's distribution. It is indicated by results of simulations that the rate has some regularities of distribution, which is not normal distribution. The big data has been collected from the 148 online collective actions and the whole processes of participation are recorded. The outcomes of empirical big data indicate that the rate seems to be closer to being log-normally distributed. This rule holds true for both the total cases and subgroups of 148 online collective actions. The Q-Q plot is applied to check the normal distribution of the rate's logarithm, and the rate's logarithm does follow the normal distribution.

Lessons Learned and Future Goals of the High Lift Prediction Workshops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth; Slotnick, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) High Lift Prediction Workshop series is described. Two workshops have been held to date. Major conclusions are summarized, and plans for future workshops are outlined. A compilation of lessons learned from the first two workshops is provided. This compilation includes a summary of needs for future high-lift experiments that are intended for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation.

Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

Treesearch

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Hypertriglyceridemic waist might be an alternative to metabolic syndrome for predicting future diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

He, Sen; Zheng, Yi; Shu, Yan; He, Jiyun; Wang, Yong; Chen, Xiaoping

2013-01-01

In some cross-sectional studies, hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW) has been recommended as an alternative to metabolic syndrome (MetS) for screening individuals at high risk for diabetes mellitus (DM). However, little information is about the predictive power of HTGW for future DM. The aims of the study were to assess the DM predictive power of HTGW compared with MetS based on the follow-up data over 15 years collected from a general Chinese population. And Findings: The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 687 individuals without DM in 1992. For the whole population (n =687), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 4.1-fold (95%CI: 2.4-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.2-6.2, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. For the population without elevated fasting plasma glucose (n = 650), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 3.9-fold (95%CI: 2.2-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.1-6.6, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. HTGW could predict future DM independently, and the predictive power was similar to MetS. HTGW might be an alternative to MetS for predicting future DM. For simpler and fewer components, HTGW might be more practical than MetS, and it might be recommended in most clinical practices. This finding might be more useful for the individuals who only have elevated WC and TG. Although these individuals are without MetS, they are still at high risk for future DM, similarly to the individuals with MetS.

Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Heinze, Justin E.; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A.

2015-01-01

Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents’ violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26282242

Tank System Integrated Model: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Schnell, A. R.; Moder, J. P.

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants, pressurization rate, and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning for future space exploration missions. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, mixing, and condensation on the tank wall. This TM also includes comparisons of TankSIM program predictions with the test data andexamples of multiphase mission calculations.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2016-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

PubMed

Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

2016-04-01

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

EPA Science Inventory

A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

2015-01-01

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

PubMed Central

Knudsen, Thomas B.; Keller, Douglas A.; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Eaton, David L.; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Mendrick, Donna L.; Tice, Raymond R.; Watkins, Paul B.; Whelan, Maurice

2015-01-01

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

Duration of post-operative hypocortisolism predicts sustained remission after pituitary surgery for Cushing’s disease

PubMed Central

Bansal, Prachi; Goroshi, Manjunath; Jadhav, Swati; Lomte, Nilesh; Thakkar, Kunal; Goel, Atul; Shah, Abhidha; Sankhe, Shilpa; Goel, Naina; Jaguste, Neelam; Bandgar, Tushar; Shah, Nalini

2017-01-01

Purpose Transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) is the primary treatment modality for Cushing’s disease (CD). However, the predictors of post-operative remission and recurrence remain debatable. Thus, we studied the post-operative remission and long-term recurrence rates, as well as their respective predictive factors. Methods A retrospective analysis of case records of 230 CD patients who underwent primary microscopic TSS at our tertiary care referral centre between 1987 and 2015 was undertaken. Demographic features, pre- and post-operative hormonal values, MRI findings, histopathological features and follow-up data were recorded. Remission and recurrence rates as well as their respective predictive factors were studied. Results Overall, the post-operative remission rate was 65.6% (early remission 46%; delayed remission 19.6%), while the recurrence rate was 41% at mean follow-up of 74 ± 61.1 months (12–270 months). Significantly higher early remission rates were observed in patients with microadenoma vs macroadenoma (51.7% vs 30.6%, P = 0.005) and those with unequivocal vs equivocal MRI for microadenoma (55.8% vs 38.5%, P = 0.007). Patients with invasive macroadenoma had poorer (4.5% vs 45%, P = 0.001) remission rates. Recurrence rates were higher in patients with delayed remission than those with early remission (61.5% vs 30.8%, P = 0.001). Duration of post-operative hypocortisolemia ≥13 months predicted sustained remission with 100% specificity and 46.4% sensitivity. Recurrence could be detected significantly earlier (27.7 vs 69.2 months, P < 0.001) in patients with available serial follow-up biochemistry as compared to those with infrequent follow-up after remission. Conclusion In our study, remission and recurrence rates were similar to that of reported literature, but proportion of delayed remission was relatively higher. Negative/equivocal MRI findings and presence of macroadenoma, especially those with cavernous sinus invasion were

Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

Recalled Initiation and Duration of Maternal Breastfeeding Among Children with and Without ADHD in a Well Characterized Case-Control Sample.

PubMed

Stadler, Diane D; Musser, Erica D; Holton, Kathleen F; Shannon, Jackilen; Nigg, Joel T

2016-02-01

Early environmental influences are increasingly of interest in understanding ADHD as a neurodevelopmental condition, particularly in light of recognition that gene by environment interplay are likely involved in this condition. Breastfeeding duration predicts cognitive development, as well as development of brain white matter connectivity, in areas similar to those seen in ADHD. Prior studies show an association between breastfeeding and ADHD but without adequate evaluation of ADHD. A case control cohort of 474 children aged 7-13 years was examined, 291 with well characterized ADHD (71.5 % male) and the rest typically developing controls (51.9 % male). Mothers retrospectively reported on breast feeding initiation and duration. Initiation of breastfeeding was not associated with child ADHD, but shorter duration of breastfeeding was associated with child ADHD with a medium effect size (d = 0.40, p < 0.05); this effect held after covarying a broad set of potential confounders, including child oppositional defiant and conduct problems and including maternal and paternal ADHD symptoms. Effects were replicated across both parent and teacher ratings of child ADHD symptoms. Shorter duration of breastfeeding is among several risk factors in early life associated with future ADHD, or else longer duration is protective. The direction of this effect is unknown, however. It may be that some children are more difficult to breastfeed or that breastfeeding provides nutrients or other benefits that reduce future chance of ADHD.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

PubMed

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Neural pattern change during encoding of a narrative predicts retrospective duration estimates

PubMed Central

Lositsky, Olga; Chen, Janice; Toker, Daniel; Honey, Christopher J; Shvartsman, Michael; Poppenk, Jordan L; Hasson, Uri; Norman, Kenneth A

2016-01-01

What mechanisms support our ability to estimate durations on the order of minutes? Behavioral studies in humans have shown that changes in contextual features lead to overestimation of past durations. Based on evidence that the medial temporal lobes and prefrontal cortex represent contextual features, we related the degree of fMRI pattern change in these regions with people’s subsequent duration estimates. After listening to a radio story in the scanner, participants were asked how much time had elapsed between pairs of clips from the story. Our ROI analyses found that duration estimates were correlated with the neural pattern distance between two clips at encoding in the right entorhinal cortex. Moreover, whole-brain searchlight analyses revealed a cluster spanning the right anterior temporal lobe. Our findings provide convergent support for the hypothesis that retrospective time judgments are driven by 'drift' in contextual representations supported by these regions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16070.001 PMID:27801645

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

2017-01-01

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-10-01

Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Duration of inflation and conditions at the bounce as a prediction of effective isotropic loop quantum cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsefors, Linda; Barrau, Aurelien

2013-06-01

Loop quantum cosmology with a scalar field is known to be closely linked with an inflationary phase. In this article, we study probabilistic predictions for the duration of slow-roll inflation, by assuming a minimalist massive scalar field as the main content of the Universe. The phase of the field in its “prebounce” oscillatory state is taken as a natural random parameter. We find that the probability for a given number of inflationary e-folds is quite sharply peaked around 145, which is consistent with the most favored minimum values. In this precise sense, a satisfactory inflation is therefore a clear prediction of loop gravity. In addition, we derive an original and stringent upper limit on the Barbero-Immirzi parameter. The general picture of inflation, superinflation, deflation, and superdeflation is also much clarified in the framework of bouncing cosmologies.

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

PubMed

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

Reward-related neural activity and structure predict future substance use in dysregulated youth.

PubMed

Bertocci, M A; Bebko, G; Versace, A; Iyengar, S; Bonar, L; Forbes, E E; Almeida, J R C; Perlman, S B; Schirda, C; Travis, M J; Gill, M K; Diwadkar, V A; Sunshine, J L; Holland, S K; Kowatch, R A; Birmaher, B; Axelson, D A; Frazier, T W; Arnold, L E; Fristad, M A; Youngstrom, E A; Horwitz, S M; Findling, R L; Phillips, M L

2017-06-01

Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth. LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables. Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%. These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.

You'll change more than I will: Adults' predictions about their own and others' future preferences.

PubMed

Renoult, Louis; Kopp, Leia; Davidson, Patrick S R; Taler, Vanessa; Atance, Cristina M

2016-01-01

It has been argued that adults underestimate the extent to which their preferences will change over time. We sought to determine whether such mispredictions are the result of a difficulty imagining that one's own current and future preferences may differ or whether it also characterizes our predictions about the future preferences of others. We used a perspective-taking task in which we asked young people how much they liked stereotypically young-person items (e.g., Top 40 music, adventure vacations) and stereotypically old-person items (e.g., jazz, playing bridge) now, and how much they would like them in the distant future (i.e., when they are 70 years old). Participants also made these same predictions for a generic same-age, same-sex peer. In a third condition, participants predicted how much a generic older (i.e., age 70) same-sex adult would like items from both categories today. Participants predicted less change between their own current and future preferences than between the current and future preferences of a peer. However, participants estimated that, compared to a current older adult today, their peer would like stereotypically young items more in the future and stereotypically old items less. The fact that peers' distant-future estimated preferences were different from the ones they made for "current" older adults suggests that even though underestimation of change of preferences over time is attenuated when thinking about others, a bias still exists.

Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

2015-01-01

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-04-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

PubMed

Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

PubMed

Doré, Bruce P; Meksin, Robert; Mather, Mara; Hirst, William; Ochsner, Kevin N

2016-06-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting (a) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and (b) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals

PubMed Central

Doré, B.P.; Meksin, R.; Mather, M.; Hirst, W.; Ochsner, K.N

2016-01-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting 1) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and 2) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. PMID:27100309

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Determinants of sick-leave duration: a tool for managers?

PubMed

Flach, Peter A; Krol, Boudien; Groothoff, Johan W

2008-09-01

To provide managers with tools to manage episodes of sick-leave of their employees, the influence of factors such as age, gender, duration of tenure, working full-time or part-time, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and education on sick-leave duration was studied. In a cross-sectional study, data derived from the 2005 sick-leave files of a Dutch university were examined. Odds ratios of the single risk factors were calculated for short spells (or=91 days) of sick-leave. Next, these factors were studied in multiple regression models. Age, gender, duration of employment, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and membership of scientific staff, studied as single factors, have a significant influence on sick-leave duration. In multiple models, this influence remains for gender, salary, age, and history and cause of sick-leave. Only in medium or long spells and regarding the risk for a long or an extended spell do the predictive values of models consisting of psychological factors, work-related factors, salary and gender become reasonable. The predictive value of the risk factors used in this study is limited, and varies with the duration of the sick-leave spell. Only the risk for an extended spell of sick-leave as compared to a medium or long spell is reasonably predicted. Factors contributing to this risk may be used as tools in decision-making.

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Exercise duration and peak systolic blood pressure are predictive of mortality in ambulatory patients with mild-moderate chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Williams, Simon G; Jackson, Mark; Ng, Leong L; Barker, Diane; Patwala, Ashish; Tan, Lip-Bun

2005-01-01

It is a prevailing concept in chronic heart failure (CHF) that ventricular remodelling (evaluated via imaging) and neurohormonal activation (via biomarkers) exert major influences, such that the need to subject patients to haemodynamic evaluations and exercise testing has been questioned. We sought to investigate whether exercise and haemodynamic parameters lack independent prognostic value in a cohort of unselected ambulatory patients with mild-moderate CHF. Eighty-five consecutive patients with stable CHF in New York Heart Association functional classes I-IV, aged 55 +/- 12 years, 84% males, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 37 +/- 15%, participated in this study. Survivors were followed for a median of 5.08 years. All subjects underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing to measure standard parameters including peak oxygen consumption, exercise duration and blood pressure. A sample of venous blood was taken to determine the N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (N-BNP) level. Echocardiography was performed at rest to measure LVEF. Predictors of mortality were sought using the Cox proportional hazards model. All-cause mortality was 19% (16 deaths, 95% CI 11-29%). Age and LVEF did not independently predict mortality. Although various parameters including New York Heart Association class, peak oxygen consumption and N-BNP level were all predictive of outcome on univariate analysis, multivariate analysis identified reduced exercise duration and peak systolic blood pressure (SBP) to be the only independent predictors of all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios of 0.78 (95% CI 0.65-0.93, p = 0.007) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.95, p = 0.01) were associated with an increase in exercise duration of 1 min and 10 mm Hg peak SBP, respectively. Two simple parameters (exercise duration and peak SBP) that are easily measured by standard exercise testing are the strongest independent predictors of mortality which outperform LVEF and N-BNP in ambulatory patients with mild

Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

2012-01-01

Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

PubMed

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Children's Predictions of Future Perceptual Experiences: Temporal Reasoning and Phenomenology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Patrick; Russell, James

2016-01-01

We investigated the development and cognitive correlates of envisioning future experiences in 3.5- to 6.5-year old children across 2 experiments, both of which involved toy trains traveling along a track. In the first, children were asked to predict the direction of train travel and color of train side, as it would be seen through an arch.…

[Associations of the work duration, sleep duration and number of holidays with an exaggerated blood pressure response during an exercise stress test among workers].

PubMed

Michishita, Ryoma; Ohta, Masanori; Ikeda, Masaharu; Jiang, Ying; Yamato, Hiroshi

2016-01-01

It has been reported that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure (ESBP) response during exercise, even if resting blood pressure is normal, is associated with an increased risk of future hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study was designed to investigate the relationships of work duration, sleep duration and number of holidays with blood pressure response during an exercise stress test among normotensive workers. The subjects were 362 normotensive workers (79 males and 283 females; age, 49.1 years). A multi-stage graded submaximal exercise stress test was performed on each subject using an electric bicycle ergometer. The workload was increased every 3 minutes, and blood pressure was measured at rest and during the last 1 minute of each stage. In this study, an ESBP response during exercise was defined according to the criteria of the Framingham Study (peak systolic blood pressure ≥210 mmHg in males, or ≥190 mmHg in females). Working environments, work duration, sleep duration, number of holidays, and physical activity during commuting and work, and leisure time exercise duration were evaluated using a questionnaire. An ESBP response during exercise was observed in 94 (26.0%) workers. The adjusted odds ratio for the prevalence of an ESBP response during exercise was found to be significantly higher with an increase in work duration, decreases in sleep duration and number of holidays (p<0.05, respectively). Moreover, the highest work duration with lowest sleep duration and number of holidays groups had significantly higher adjusted odds ratio for the prevalence of an ESBP response during exercise than the lowest work duration with highest sleep duration and number of holidays groups (p<0.05, respectively). Based on our results, we consider that the assessment of blood pressure response during exercise and daily life are necessary to prevent the incidence of future hypertension, CVD and death due to overwork in workers with long-work duration

Prediction and validation of the duration of hemodialysis sessions for the treatment of acute ethylene glycol poisoning.

PubMed

Iliuta, Ioan-Andrei; Lachance, Philippe; Ghannoum, Marc; Bégin, Yannick; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Agharazii, Mohsen

2017-08-01

The duration of hemodialysis (HD) sessions for the treatment of acute ethylene glycol poisoning is dependent on concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. Ethylene glycol assays are not readily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of HD. We report a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD sessions based retrospectively on a cohort study of 26 cases of acute ethylene glycol poisoning in 24 individuals treated by alcohol dehydrogenase competitive inhibitors, cofactors and HD. Two patients required HD for more than 14 days, and two died. In 19 cases, the mean ethylene glycol elimination half-life during high-efficiency HD was 165 minutes (95% confidence interval of 151-180 minutes). In a training set of 12 patients with acute ethylene glycol poisoning, using the 90th percentile half-life (195 minutes) and a target ethylene glycol concentration of 2 mmol/l (12.4 mg/dl) allowed all cases to reach a safe ethylene glycol under 3 mmol/l (18.6 mg/dl). The prediction model was then validated in a set of seven acute ethylene glycol poisonings. Thus, the HD session time in hours can be estimated using 4.7 x (Ln [the initial ethylene glycol concentration (mmol/l)/2]), provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying future scientists: predicting persistence into research training.

PubMed

McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L

2007-01-01

This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8-12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers.

External Long-Duration Materials Instrument Research Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhardt, J. P.; Heath, K.

2018-02-01

The External Long-duration Materials and Instrument Research Observatory (ELMIRO) is a commercial facility that will allow for continuous and repeatable external testing on the Deep Space Gateway of materials, electronics/instruments for future deep space spacecraft.

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

2010-01-01

Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

An overview of the on-orbit contamination of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuckey, W. K.

1993-01-01

Contamination that leads to degradation of critical surfaces becomes a vital design issue for many spacecraft programs. One of the processes that must be considered is the on-orbit accumulation of contaminants. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has presented an opportunity to examine the deposits on surfaces returned from orbit in order to help in understanding the deposition processes and the current models used to predict spacecraft contamination levels. The results from various investigators on the contamination of LDEF have implications for material selection, contamination models, and contamination control plans for the design of future spacecraft.

Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

PubMed

Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

2007-09-01

This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

Tryptophan Predicts the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianlu; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Ni, Yan; Hu, Cheng; Rajani, Cynthia; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

2016-01-01

Recently, 5 amino acids were identified and verified as important metabolites highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. This report aims to assess the association of tryptophan with the development of T2D and to evaluate its performance with existing amino acid markers. A total of 213 participants selected from a ten-year longitudinal Shanghai Diabetes Study (SHDS) were examined in two ways: 1) 51 subjects who developed diabetes and 162 individuals who remained metabolically healthy in 10 years; 2) the same 51 future diabetes and 23 strictly matched ones selected from the 162 healthy individuals. Baseline fasting serum tryptophan concentrations were quantitatively measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry. First, serum tryptophan level was found significantly higher in future T2D and was positively and independently associated with diabetes onset risk. Patients with higher tryptophan level tended to present higher degree of insulin resistance and secretion, triglyceride and blood pressure. Second, the prediction potential of tryptophan is non-inferior to the 5 existing amino acids. The predictive performance of the combined score improved after taking tryptophan into account. Our findings unveiled the potential of tryptophan as a new marker associated with diabetes risk in Chinese populations. The addition of tryptophan provided complementary value to the existing amino acid predictors. PMID:27598004

FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

PubMed

Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

2015-02-01

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Model swapping: A comparative performance signature for the prediction of flow duration curves in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamar, Muhammad Uzair; Azmat, Muhammad; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Shahid, Muhammad Adnan; Khushnood, Rao Arsalan; Ahmad, Sajjad

2016-10-01

The issue of lack of donor basins for prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins (PUB) is an important area of research that is not resolved in the literature. We present a distance based approach to predict FDCs at ungauged basins by quantifying the dissimilarity between FDCs and characteristics data of basins. This enables us to bracket hydrologically similar basins and thus allowing us to estimate FDCs at ungauged basins. Generally, a single regression model is selected to make hydrological estimates at an ungauged basin. Based on established laws and theories of hydrology, we work to devise a method to improve the output of selected model for an ungauged basin by swapping it with another model in case the latter gives better coverage and statistical estimates of the nearest neighbors of an ungauged basin. We report two examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of model swapping. Out of 124 basins used in analysis, 34 basins in example 1 and 41 basins in example 2 fulfill the set criteria of model swapping and subsequently their estimates are improved significantly.

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

Sleep duration and RSA suppression as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors

PubMed Central

Cho, Sunghye; Philbrook, Lauren E.; Davis, Elizabeth L.; Buss, Kristin A.

2017-01-01

Although the conceptual interplay among the biological and clinical features of sleep, arousal, and emotion regulation has been noted, little is understood about how indices of sleep duration and parasympathetic reactivity operate jointly to predict adjustment in early childhood. Using a sample of 123 toddlers, the present study examined sleep duration and RSA reactivity as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Parents reported on children’s sleep duration and adjustment. RSA reactivity was assessed via children’s responses to fear-eliciting stimuli and an inhibitory control challenge. Findings demonstrated that greater RSA suppression to both types of tasks in combination with longer sleep duration was concurrently associated with less internalizing. In contrast, greater RSA augmentation to an inhibitory control task in the context of shorter sleep duration predicted more externalizing 1 year later. The significance of duration of toddlers’ sleep as well as the context in which physiological regulatory difficulties occurs is discussed. PMID:27577700

Sleep duration and RSA suppression as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors.

PubMed

Cho, Sunghye; Philbrook, Lauren E; Davis, Elizabeth L; Buss, Kristin A

2017-01-01

Although the conceptual interplay among the biological and clinical features of sleep, arousal, and emotion regulation has been noted, little is understood about how indices of sleep duration and parasympathetic reactivity operate jointly to predict adjustment in early childhood. Using a sample of 123 toddlers, the present study examined sleep duration and RSA reactivity as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Parents reported on children's sleep duration and adjustment. RSA reactivity was assessed via children's responses to fear-eliciting stimuli and an inhibitory control challenge. Findings demonstrated that greater RSA suppression to both types of tasks in combination with longer sleep duration was concurrently associated with less internalizing. In contrast, greater RSA augmentation to an inhibitory control task in the context of shorter sleep duration predicted more externalizing 1 year later. The significance of duration of toddlers' sleep as well as the context in which physiological regulatory difficulties occurs is discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-04-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-07-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

Space immunology - Past, present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulter, Gary R.; Taylor, Gerald R.; Sonnenfeld, Gerald

1989-01-01

Research results on the causes and mechanisms of change in immune systems during spaceflight are briefly reviewed. The most reliable conclusion from the sparse existing data is that postflight crew members exhibit a transient neutrophilia, eosinopenia, monocytopenia, reduced numbers of circulating T cells, and an often pronounced decrease in the ability of their T cells to respond to mitogen stimulation. Clinically, no direct predictive relationship between any of these measurements and increased health risk or disease has been established. Future areas of research are suggested in light of NASA's emerging requirements to support long-duration missions.

Defining the Scope of Prognosis: Primary Care Clinicians' Perspectives on Predicting the Future Health of Older Adults.

PubMed

Thomas, John M; Fried, Terri R

2018-05-01

Studies examining the attitudes of clinicians toward prognostication for older adults have focused on life expectancy prediction. Little is known about whether clinicians approach prognostication in other ways. To describe how clinicians approach prognostication for older adults, defined broadly as making projections about patients' future health. In five focus groups, 30 primary care clinicians from community-based, academic-affiliated, and Veterans Affairs primary care practices were given open-ended questions about how they make projections about their patients' future health and how this informs the approach to care. Content analysis was used to organize responses into themes. Clinicians spoke about future health in terms of a variety of health outcomes in addition to life expectancy, including independence in activities and decision making, quality of life, avoiding hospitalization, and symptom burden. They described approaches in predicting these health outcomes, including making observations about the overall trajectory of patients to predict health outcomes and recognizing increased risk for adverse health outcomes. Clinicians expressed reservations about using estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to think about and communicate patients' future health. They discussed ways in which future research might help them in thinking about and discussing patients' future health to guide care decisions, including identifying when and whether interventions might impact future health. The perspectives of primary care clinicians in this study confirm that prognostic considerations can go beyond precise estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to include a number of outcomes and approaches to predicting those outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

Prediction of the future number of wells in production (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coca, B.P.

1981-01-01

A method to predict the number of wells that will continue producing at a certain date in the future is presented. The method is applicable to reservoirs of the depletion type and is based on the survival probability concept. This is useful when forecasting by empirical methods. An example of a field in primary production is presented.

Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

PubMed

Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

2007-10-01

To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

The effect of exposure duration on the subjective discomfort of aircraft cabin noise.

PubMed

Huang, Yu; Jiang, Weikang

2017-01-01

The time dependency for subjective responses to noise has been a controversial question over many years. For durations of up to 10 min, the discomfort produced by three levels of noise (ie 60, 70 and 80 dBA) was investigated in this experimental study to determine the relation of discomfort to the time duration of noise. The rate of increase in discomfort with increasing duration was 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration, whereas it is currently assumed to be 3 dB per doubling of exposure duration. The sound dose level (SDL) was proposed to predict the discomfort caused by noise of long duration. The combination of SDL and vibration dose value (VDV) provided more consistent estimates of the equivalent comfort contours between noise and vibration over durations from 2 to 32 s than the combination of sound exposure level and VDV or that of sound pressure level and r.m.s. acceleration. Practitioner Summary: The discomfort produced by noise of long duration can be well predicted from a new definition of sound dose level, where the discomfort increases at 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration.

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

PubMed

Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

2017-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

Advancing the Oxygen Generation Assembly Design to Increase Reliability and Reduce Costs for a Future Long Duration Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takada, Kevin C.; Ghariani, Ahmed E.; Van Keuren,

2015-01-01

The state-of-the-art Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) has been reliably producing breathing oxygen for the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) for over eight years. Lessons learned from operating the ISS OGA have led to proposing incremental improvements to advance the baseline design for use in a future long duration mission. These improvements are intended to reduce system weight, crew maintenance time and resupply mass from Earth while increasing reliability. The proposed improvements include replacing the cell stack membrane material, deleting the nitrogen purge equipment, replacing the hydrogen sensors, deleting the wastewater interface, replacing the hydrogen dome and redesigning the cell stack power supply. The development work to date will be discussed and forward work will be outlined. Additionally, a redesigned system architecture will be proposed.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts among Depressed Suicide Ideators: A 10-year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

May, Alexis M.; Klonsky, E. David; Klein, Daniel N.

2012-01-01

Suicidal ideation and attempts are a major public health problem. Research has identified many risk factors for suicidality; however, most fail to identify which suicide ideators are at greatest risk of progressing to a suicide attempt. Thus, the present study identified predictors of future suicide attempts in a sample of psychiatric patients reporting suicidal ideation. The sample comprised 49 individuals who met full DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder and/or dysthymic disorder and reported suicidal ideation at baseline. Participants were followed for 10 years. Demographic, psychological, personality, and psychosocial risk factors were assessed using validated questionnaires and structured interviews. Phi coefficients and point-biserial correlations were used to identify prospective predictors of attempts, and logistic regressions were used to identify which variables predicted future attempts over and above past suicide attempts. Six significant predictors of future suicide attempts were identified – cluster A personality disorder, cluster B personality disorder, lifetime substance abuse, baseline anxiety disorder, poor maternal relationship, and poor social adjustment. Finally, exploratory logistic regressions were used to examine the unique contribution of each significant predictor controlling for the others. Co-morbid cluster B personality disorder emerged as the only robust, unique predictor of future suicide attempts among depressed suicide ideators. Future research should continue to identify variables that predict transition from suicidal thoughts to suicide attempts, as such work will enhance clinical assessment of suicide risk as well as theoretical models of suicide. PMID:22575331

Slow Wave Sleep and Long Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Arias, D.; Leveton, L.

2011-01-01

To review the literature on slow wave sleep (SWS) in long duration space flight, and place this within the context of the broader literature on SWS particularly with respect to analogous environments such as the Antarctic. Explore how SWS could be measured within the International Space Station (ISS) context with the aim to utilize the ISS as an analog for future extra-orbital long duration missions. Discuss the potential use of emergent minimally intrusive wireless technologies like ZEO for integrated prelaunch, flight, and return to Earth analysis and optimization of SWS (and general quality of sleep).

Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Katarina L.; Pennline, James A.

2013-01-01

During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

2014-10-01

Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas.

Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

2014-01-01

Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

Pre-attentive sensitivity to vowel duration reveals native phonology and predicts learning of second-language sounds.

PubMed

Chládková, Kateřina; Escudero, Paola; Lipski, Silvia C

2013-09-01

In some languages (e.g. Czech), changes in vowel duration affect word meaning, while in others (e.g. Spanish) they do not. Yet for other languages (e.g. Dutch), the linguistic role of vowel duration remains unclear. To reveal whether Dutch represents vowel length in its phonology, we compared auditory pre-attentive duration processing in native and non-native vowels across Dutch, Czech, and Spanish. Dutch duration sensitivity patterned with Czech but was larger than Spanish in the native vowel, while it was smaller than Czech and Spanish in the non-native vowel. An interpretation of these findings suggests that in Dutch, duration is used phonemically but it might be relevant for the identity of certain native vowels only. Furthermore, the finding that Spanish listeners are more sensitive to duration in non-native than in native vowels indicates that a lack of duration differences in one's native language could be beneficial for second-language learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using biomarkers to predict TB treatment duration (Predict TB): a prospective, randomized, noninferiority, treatment shortening clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Ray Y; Via, Laura E; Dodd, Lori E; Walzl, Gerhard; Malherbe, Stephanus T; Loxton, André G; Dawson, Rodney; Wilkinson, Robert J; Thienemann, Friedrich; Tameris, Michele; Hatherill, Mark; Diacon, Andreas H; Liu, Xin; Xing, Jin; Jin, Xiaowei; Ma, Zhenya; Pan, Shouguo; Zhang, Guolong; Gao, Qian; Jiang, Qi; Zhu, Hong; Liang, Lili; Duan, Hongfei; Song, Taeksun; Alland, David; Tartakovsky, Michael; Rosenthal, Alex; Whalen, Christopher; Duvenhage, Michael; Cai, Ying; Goldfeder, Lisa C; Arora, Kriti; Smith, Bronwyn; Winter, Jill; Barry Iii, Clifton E

2017-11-06

Background : By the early 1980s, tuberculosis treatment was shortened from 24 to 6 months, maintaining relapse rates of 1-2%. Subsequent trials attempting shorter durations have failed, with 4-month arms consistently having relapse rates of 15-20%. One trial shortened treatment only among those without baseline cavity on chest x-ray and whose month 2 sputum culture converted to negative. The 4-month arm relapse rate decreased to 7% but was still significantly worse than the 6-month arm (1.6%, P<0.01).  We hypothesize that PET/CT characteristics at baseline, PET/CT changes at one month, and markers of residual bacterial load will identify patients with tuberculosis who can be cured with 4 months (16 weeks) of standard treatment. Methods : This is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, phase 2b, noninferiority clinical trial of pulmonary tuberculosis participants. Those eligible start standard of care treatment. PET/CT scans are done at weeks 0, 4, and 16 or 24. Participants who do not meet early treatment completion criteria (baseline radiologic severity, radiologic response at one month, and GeneXpert-detectable bacilli at four months) are placed in Arm A (24 weeks of standard therapy). Those who meet the early treatment completion criteria are randomized at week 16 to continue treatment to week 24 (Arm B) or complete treatment at week 16 (Arm C). The primary endpoint compares the treatment success rate at 18 months between Arms B and C. Discussion : Multiple biomarkers have been assessed to predict TB treatment outcomes. This study uses PET/CT scans and GeneXpert (Xpert) cycle threshold to risk stratify participants. PET/CT scans are not applicable to global public health but could be used in clinical trials to stratify participants and possibly become a surrogate endpoint. If the Predict TB trial is successful, other immunological biomarkers or transcriptional signatures that correlate with treatment outcome may be identified. NCT02821832.

Using biomarkers to predict TB treatment duration (Predict TB): a prospective, randomized, noninferiority, treatment shortening clinical trial

PubMed Central

Chen, Ray Y.; Via, Laura E.; Dodd, Lori E.; Walzl, Gerhard; Malherbe, Stephanus T.; Loxton, André G.; Dawson, Rodney; Wilkinson, Robert J.; Thienemann, Friedrich; Tameris, Michele; Hatherill, Mark; Diacon, Andreas H.; Liu, Xin; Xing, Jin; Jin, Xiaowei; Ma, Zhenya; Pan, Shouguo; Zhang, Guolong; Gao, Qian; Jiang, Qi; Zhu, Hong; Liang, Lili; Duan, Hongfei; Song, Taeksun; Alland, David; Tartakovsky, Michael; Rosenthal, Alex; Whalen, Christopher; Duvenhage, Michael; Cai, Ying; Goldfeder, Lisa C.; Arora, Kriti; Smith, Bronwyn; Winter, Jill; Barry III, Clifton E.

2017-01-01

Background: By the early 1980s, tuberculosis treatment was shortened from 24 to 6 months, maintaining relapse rates of 1-2%. Subsequent trials attempting shorter durations have failed, with 4-month arms consistently having relapse rates of 15-20%. One trial shortened treatment only among those without baseline cavity on chest x-ray and whose month 2 sputum culture converted to negative. The 4-month arm relapse rate decreased to 7% but was still significantly worse than the 6-month arm (1.6%, P<0.01).  We hypothesize that PET/CT characteristics at baseline, PET/CT changes at one month, and markers of residual bacterial load will identify patients with tuberculosis who can be cured with 4 months (16 weeks) of standard treatment. Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, phase 2b, noninferiority clinical trial of pulmonary tuberculosis participants. Those eligible start standard of care treatment. PET/CT scans are done at weeks 0, 4, and 16 or 24. Participants who do not meet early treatment completion criteria (baseline radiologic severity, radiologic response at one month, and GeneXpert-detectable bacilli at four months) are placed in Arm A (24 weeks of standard therapy). Those who meet the early treatment completion criteria are randomized at week 16 to continue treatment to week 24 (Arm B) or complete treatment at week 16 (Arm C). The primary endpoint compares the treatment success rate at 18 months between Arms B and C. Discussion: Multiple biomarkers have been assessed to predict TB treatment outcomes. This study uses PET/CT scans and GeneXpert (Xpert) cycle threshold to risk stratify participants. PET/CT scans are not applicable to global public health but could be used in clinical trials to stratify participants and possibly become a surrogate endpoint. If the Predict TB trial is successful, other immunological biomarkers or transcriptional signatures that correlate with treatment outcome may be identified. Trial Registration: NCT02821832 PMID

Age and duration of testosterone therapy predict time to return of sperm count after human chorionic gonadotropin therapy.

PubMed

Kohn, Taylor P; Louis, Matthew R; Pickett, Stephen M; Lindgren, Mark C; Kohn, Jaden R; Pastuszak, Alexander W; Lipshultz, Larry I

2017-02-01

To determine factors that influence sperm recovery after T-associated infertility. Clinical retrospective study. Academic male-infertility urology clinic. Sixty-six men who presented with infertility after T use. T cessation and combination high-dose hCG and selective estrogen modulator (SERM) therapy. Whether patients successfully achieved or failed to achieve a total motile count (TMC) of greater than 5 million sperm within 12 months of T cessation and initiation of therapy. A TMC of greater than 5 million sperm was achieved by 46 men (70%). Both increased age and duration of T use directly correlated with time to sperm recovery at both 6 and 12 months of hCG/SERM therapy. Age more consistently limited sperm recovery, while duration of T use had less influence at 12 months than at 6 months. Only 64.8% of azoospermic men achieved a TMC greater than 5 million sperm at 12 months, compared with 91.7% of cryptozoospermic men, yet this did not predict a failure of sperm recovery. Increasing age and duration of T use significantly reduce the likelihood of recovery of sperm in the ejaculate, based on a criterion of a TMC of 5 million sperm, at 6 and 12 months. Physicians should be cautious in pursuing long-term T therapy, particularly in men who still desire fertility. Using these findings, physicians can counsel men regarding the likelihood of recovery of sperm at 6 and 12 months. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Duration estimates within a modality are integrated sub-optimally

PubMed Central

Cai, Ming Bo; Eagleman, David M.

2015-01-01

Perceived duration can be influenced by various properties of sensory stimuli. For example, visual stimuli of higher temporal frequency are perceived to last longer than those of lower temporal frequency. How does the brain form a representation of duration when each of two simultaneously presented stimuli influences perceived duration in different way? To answer this question, we investigated the perceived duration of a pair of dynamic visual stimuli of different temporal frequencies in comparison to that of a single visual stimulus of either low or high temporal frequency. We found that the duration representation of simultaneously occurring visual stimuli is best described by weighting the estimates of duration based on each individual stimulus. However, the weighting performance deviates from the prediction of statistically optimal integration. In addition, we provided a Bayesian account to explain a difference in the apparent sensitivity of the psychometric curves introduced by the order in which the two stimuli are displayed in a two-alternative forced-choice task. PMID:26321965

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains

PubMed Central

Kerry, Matthew J.; Embretson, Susan E.

2018-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as “perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended” (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45–60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either ‘Live-to’ or ‘Die-by’ to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t-tests showing lower FTP in the ‘Die-by’ framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP’s decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains. PMID:29375435

The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

PubMed

Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

2012-06-01

This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.

2012-01-01

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

2012-01-01

Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, G. W.

1984-01-01

A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

2017-12-01

Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

Association between QRS duration and obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Gupta, Shuchita; Cepeda-Valery, Beatriz; Romero-Corral, Abel; Shamsuzzaman, Abu; Somers, Virend K; Pressman, Gregg S

2012-12-15

Both obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and prolonged QRS duration are associated with hypertension, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. However, possible links between QRS duration and OSA have not been explored. Cross-sectional study of 221 patients who underwent polysomnography at our center. Demographics, cardiovascular risk factors and ECG were collected to explore a relationship between OSA and QRS duration. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was positively correlated with QRS duration (r = 0.141, p = 0.03). Patients were divided into 3 groups: AHI < 5 (61), AHI 5-29 (104), and AHI > 30 (55). The mean QRS duration prolonged significantly as OSA worsened (AHI < 5, 85 ± 9.5; AHI 5-29, 89 ± 11.9; and AHI > 30, 95 ± 19.9 ms, p = 0.001). QRS ≥ 100 ms was present in 12.7% of patients with severe OSA compared with 0% in the rest of the sample (p < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, race, and cardiovascular risk factors, this association remained significant in women but not in men. QRS duration and OSA were significantly associated. Severity of OSA independently predicted prolonged QRS in women but not men. Nevertheless, prolongation of QRS duration in either sex may potentiate arrhythmic risks associated with OSA.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape

Future remnant liver function as predictive factor for the hypertrophy response after portal vein embolization.

PubMed

Cieslak, Kasia P; Huisman, Floor; Bais, Thomas; Bennink, Roelof J; van Lienden, Krijn P; Verheij, Joanne; Besselink, Marc G; Busch, Olivier R C; van Gulik, Thomas M

2017-07-01

Preoperative portal vein embolization is widely used to increase the future remnant liver. Identification of nonresponders to portal vein embolization is essential because these patients may benefit from associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS), which induces a more powerful hypertrophy response. 99m Tc-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy is a quantitative method for assessment of future remnant liver function with a calculated cutoff value for the prediction of postoperative liver failure. The aim of this study was to analyze future remnant liver function before portal vein embolization to predict sufficient functional hypertrophy response after portal vein embolization. Sixty-three patients who underwent preoperative portal vein embolization and computed tomography imaging were included. Hepatobiliary scintigraphy was performed to determine pre-portal vein embolization and post-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function. Receiver operator characteristic analysis of pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function was performed to identify patients who would meet the post-portal vein embolization cutoff value for sufficient function (ie, 2.7%/min/m 2 ). Mean pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function was 1.80% ± 0.45%/min/m 2 and increased to 2.89% ± 0.97%/min/m 2 post-portal vein embolization. Receiver operator characteristic analysis in 33 patients who did not receive chemotherapy revealed that a pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function of ≥1.72%/min/m 2 was able to identify patients who would meet the safe future remnant liver function cutoff value 3 weeks after portal vein embolization (area under the curve = 0.820). The predictive value was less pronounced in 30 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (area under the curve = 0.618). A total of 45 of 63 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 5 of 45 developed postoperative liver failure

Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

2011-10-01

Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (P<0.05) and that reminding people of these experiences results in higher predicted future liking for vegetables (P<0.05) and choice of a larger portion size of vegetables (P<0.05) compared with recall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The association between sleep duration and weight gain in adults: a 6-year prospective study from the Quebec Family Study.

PubMed

Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Després, Jean-Pierre; Bouchard, Claude; Tremblay, Angelo

2008-04-01

To investigate the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent body weight and fat gain. Six-year longitudinal study. Community setting. Two hundred seventy-six adults aged 21 to 64 years from the Quebec Family Study. More than half of the sample is drawn from families with at least 1 parent and 1 offspring with a body mass index of 32 kg/m2 or higher. Body composition measurements and self-reported sleep duration were determined. Changes in adiposity indices were compared between short- (5-6 hours), average- (7-8 hours), and long- (9-10 hours) duration sleeper groups. After adjustment for age, sex, and baseline body mass index, short-duration sleepers gained 1.98 kg (95% confidence interval: 1.16-2.82) more and long-duration sleepers gained 1.58 kg (95% CI: 1.02-2.56) more than did average-duration sleepers over 6 years. Short- and long-duration sleepers were 35% and 25% more likely to experience a 5-kg weight gain, respectively, as compared with average-duration sleepers over 6 years. The risk of developing obesity was elevated for short- and long-duration sleepers as compared with average-duration sleepers, with 27% and 21% increases in risk, respectively. These associations remained significant after inclusion of important covariates and were not affected by adjustment for energy intake and physical activity participation. This study provides evidence that both short and long sleeping times predict an increased risk of future body weight and fat gain in adults. Hence, these results emphasize the need to add sleep duration to the panel of determinants that contribute to weight gain and obesity.

What to do on spring break? The role of predicted, on-line, and remembered experience in future choice.

PubMed

Wirtz, Derrick; Kruger, Justin; Napa Scollon, Christie; Diener, Ed

2003-09-01

When individuals choose future activities on the basis of their past experiences, what guides those choices? The present study compared students' predicted, on-line, and remembered spring-break experiences, as well as the influence of these factors on students' desire to take a similar vacation in the future. Predicted and remembered experiences were both more positive-and, paradoxically, more negative-than on-line experiences. Of key importance, path analyses revealed that remembered experience, but neither on-line nor anticipated experience, directly predicted the desire to repeat the experience. These results suggest that although on-line measures may be superior to retrospective measures for approximating objective experience, retrospective measures may be superior for predicting choice.

A Statistical Weather-Driven Streamflow Model: Enabling future flow predictions in data-scarce headwater streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2014-12-01

Predicting streamflow in headwaters and over a broad spatial scale pose unique challenges due to limited data availability. Flow observation gages for headwaters streams are less common than for larger rivers, and gages with records lengths of ten year or more are even more scarce. Thus, there is a great need for estimating streamflows in ungaged or sparsely-gaged headwaters. Further, there is often insufficient basin information to develop rainfall-runoff models that could be used to predict future flows under various climate scenarios. Headwaters in the northeastern U.S. are of particular concern to aquatic biologists, as these stream serve as essential habitat for native coldwater fish. In order to understand fish response to past or future environmental drivers, estimates of seasonal streamflow are needed. While there is limited flow data, there is a wealth of data for historic weather conditions. Observed data has been modeled to interpolate a spatially continuous historic weather dataset. (Mauer et al 2002). We present a statistical model developed by pairing streamflow observations with precipitation and temperature information for the same and preceding time-steps. We demonstrate this model's use to predict flow metrics at the seasonal time-step. While not a physical model, this statistical model represents the weather drivers. Since this model can predict flows not directly tied to reference gages, we can generate flow estimates for historic as well as potential future conditions.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced

Children's predictions of future perceptual experiences: Temporal reasoning and phenomenology.

PubMed

Burns, Patrick; Russell, James

2016-11-01

We investigated the development and cognitive correlates of envisioning future experiences in 3.5- to 6.5-year old children across 2 experiments, both of which involved toy trains traveling along a track. In the first, children were asked to predict the direction of train travel and color of train side, as it would be seen through an arch. Children below 5 years typically failed the task, while performance on it was associated with performance on a "before/after" comprehension task in which order-of-mention in a sentence had to be mapped to a video of 2 actions (after McCormack & Hanley, 2011). In the second train task children were asked to predict the content of a doll's visual experience at the terminal point of a train's transit, based on the tint of a doll's spectacles and the direction of travel (toward or away). Again, success under 5 years of age was very rare and performance was associated with performance on the before/after task. This time there was a strong association with mental rotation skill. We conclude that the consistent association with before/after reasoning suggests that future-envisioning depends upon certain temporal-order concepts being in place. The inconsistent association with mental rotation suggests that envisioning can be achieved phenomenologically, but that its role is only explicit when the question explicitly concerns the content of a visual field. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2015-05-01

Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

PubMed Central

Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2012-01-01

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

PubMed

Miller, Clifford

2014-12-01

Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intensity and Duration of Negative Emotions: Comparing the Role of Appraisals and Regulation Strategies

PubMed Central

Brans, Karen; Verduyn, Philippe

2014-01-01

Intensity and duration are two central characteristics of an emotional response. Appraisals and regulation strategies are among the most important determinants of these emotion features. However, as intensity and duration are only moderately correlated, appraisals and regulation strategies may be differently related to these characteristics. A systematic empirical study comparing predictors of emotion intensity and duration is missing. The goal of the present study is to fill this gap. Participants were asked to recall recently experienced episodes of anger, fear, disgust, guilt, sadness, and shame. Subsequently, they were asked to answer a number of questions regarding (a) the intensity and duration of these emotions, (b) their appraisal of the emotion-eliciting event, and (c) their use of a wide range of regulation strategies. Emotion intensity was found to be mainly predicted by appraisals whereas emotion duration was equally well predicted by appraisals and regulation strategies. PMID:24670979

Fracture Prediction by Computed Tomography and Finite Element Analysis: Current and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Johannesdottir, Fjola; Allaire, Brett; Bouxsein, Mary L

2018-05-30

This review critiques the ability of CT-based methods to predict incident hip and vertebral fractures. CT-based techniques with concurrent calibration all show strong associations with incident hip and vertebral fracture, predicting hip and vertebral fractures as well as, and sometimes better than, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry areal biomass density (DXA aBMD). There is growing evidence for use of routine CT scans for bone health assessment. CT-based techniques provide a robust approach for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture prediction. It remains to be seen if further technical advances will improve fracture prediction compared to DXA aBMD. Future work should include more standardization in CT analyses, establishment of treatment intervention thresholds, and more studies to determine whether routine CT scans can be efficiently used to expand the number of individuals who undergo evaluation for fracture risk.

Brain activity in valuation regions while thinking about the future predicts individual discount rates.

PubMed

Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Kim, B Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

2013-08-07

People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future--specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals--predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future.

Association between QRS Duration and Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Gupta, Shuchita; Cepeda-Valery, Beatriz; Romero-Corral, Abel; Shamsuzzaman, Abu; Somers, Virend K.; Pressman, Gregg S.

2012-01-01

Background: Both obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and prolonged QRS duration are associated with hypertension, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. However, possible links between QRS duration and OSA have not been explored. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 221 patients who underwent polysomnography at our center. Demographics, cardiovascular risk factors and ECG were collected to explore a relationship between OSA and QRS duration. Results: The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was positively correlated with QRS duration (r = 0.141, p = 0.03). Patients were divided into 3 groups: AHI < 5 (61), AHI 5-29 (104), and AHI > 30 (55). The mean QRS duration prolonged significantly as OSA worsened (AHI < 5, 85 ± 9.5; AHI 5-29, 89 ± 11.9; and AHI > 30, 95 ± 19.9 ms, p = 0.001). QRS ≥ 100 ms was present in 12.7% of patients with severe OSA compared with 0% in the rest of the sample (p < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, race, and cardiovascular risk factors, this association remained significant in women but not in men. Conclusion: QRS duration and OSA were significantly associated. Severity of OSA independently predicted prolonged QRS in women but not men. Nevertheless, prolongation of QRS duration in either sex may potentiate arrhythmic risks associated with OSA. Citation: Gupta S; Cepeda-Valery B; Romero-Corral A; Shamsuzzaman A; Somers VK; Pressman GS. Association between QRS duration and obstructive sleep apnea. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(6):649-654. PMID:23243398

Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

2016-04-01

It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after groove penetration.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after

Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yufeng

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals. PMID:27802148

Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

PubMed

Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

2014-01-01

A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

Pre-operative function, motivation and duration of symptoms predict sporting participation after total hip replacement.

PubMed

Ollivier, M; Frey, S; Parratte, S; Flecher, X; Argenson, J N

2014-08-01

There is little in the literature on the level of participation in sports which patients undertake after total hip replacement (THR). Our aims in this study were to determine first, the level of sporting activity, second, the predictive factors for returning to sporting activity, and third, the correlation between participation in sports and satisfaction after THR. We retrospectively identified 815 patients who had undergone THR between 1995 and 2005. All were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding their sporting activity. A total of 571 patients (71%) met the inclusion criteria and completed the evaluation. At a mean follow-up of 9.8 years (sd 2.9), 366 patients (64%) returned to sporting activity as defined by a University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) score of > 5. The main reasons that patients had for refraining from sports were fear of dislocation (65; 31.6%), avoiding wear (52; 25.4%), and the recommendation of the surgeon (34; 16.6%). There was a significant relationship between higher post-operative participation in sport in those patients with a higher pre-operative Harris hip score (HHS) (p = 0.0074), motivation to participate in sporting activities (p = 0.00022) and a shorter duration of symptoms (p = 0.0034). Finally, there was a correlation between age (p = 0.00013), UCLA score (p = 0.012) and pre-operative HHS (p = 0.00091) and satisfaction. In conclusion, we found that most patients participate in sporting activity after THR, regardless of the advice of their surgeon, and that there is a correlation between the level of participation and pre-operative function, motivation, duration of symptoms and post-operative satisfaction. ©2014 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Predicting duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Shen, Chih-Hao; Peng, Chung-Kan; Chou, Yu-Ching; Pan, Ke-Ting; Chang, Shun-Cheng; Chang, Shan-Yueh; Huang, Kun-Lun

2015-02-01

Patients with severe carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning may develop acute respiratory failure, which needs endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation (MV). The objective of this study was to identify the predictors for duration of MV in patients with severe CO poisoning and acute respiratory failure. This is a retrospective observational study of 796 consecutive patients diagnosed with acute CO poisoning that presented to the emergency department. Patients who received MV were divided into 2 groups: the early extubation (EE) consisting of patients who were on MV for less than 72 hours and the nonearly extubation (NEE) consisting of patients who were on MV for more than 72 hours. Demographic and clinical data of the two groups were extracted for analysis. The intubation rate of all CO-poisoned patients was 23.4%. A total of 168 patients were enrolled in this study. The main source of CO exposure was intentional CO poisoning by charcoal burning (137 patients). Positive toxicology screening result was found in 104 patients (61.9%). The EE group had 105 patients (62.5%). On arriving at the emergency department, high incidence of hypotension; high white blood cell count; and elevation of blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatine kinase, and troponin-I levels were statistically significant in the NEE group (P < .05). Positive toxicology screening result was statistically significant in the EE group (P < .05). In a multivariate analysis, elevation of troponin-I level was an independent factor for NEE (odds ratio, 1.305; 95% confidence interval, 1.024-1.663; P = .032). Positive toxicology screening result was an independent factor for EE (odds ratio, 0.222; 95% confidence interval, 0.101-0.489; P = .001). A positive toxin screen predicts extubation within the first 72 hours for patients with severe CO poisoning and acute respiratory failure. On the other hand, elevation of initial troponin-I level is a predictor for

The pitch of short-duration fundamental frequency glissandos.

PubMed

d'Alessandro, C; Rosset, S; Rossi, J P

1998-10-01

Pitch perception for short-duration fundamental frequency (F0) glissandos was studied. In the first part, new measurements using the method of adjustment are reported. Stimuli were F0 glissandos centered at 220 Hz. The parameters under study were: F0 glissando extents (0, 0.8, 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 semitones, i.e., 0, 10.17, 18.74, 38.17, 76.63, and 155.56 Hz), F0 glissando durations (50, 100, 200, and 300 ms), F0 glissando directions (rising or falling), and the extremity of F0 glissandos matched (beginning or end). In the second part, the main results are discussed: (1) perception seems to correspond to an average of the frequencies present in the vicinity of the extremity matched; (2) the higher extremities of the glissando seem more important; (3) adjustments at the end are closer to the extremities than adjustments at the beginning. In the third part, numerical models accounting for the experimental data are proposed: a time-average model and a weighted time-average model. Optimal parameters for these models are derived. The weighted time-average model achieves a 94% accurate prediction rate for the experimental data. The numerical model is successful in predicting the pitch of short-duration F0 glissandos.

Prediction of individual response to anticancer therapy: historical and future perspectives.

PubMed

Unger, Florian T; Witte, Irene; David, Kerstin A

2015-02-01

Since the introduction of chemotherapy for cancer treatment in the early 20th century considerable efforts have been made to maximize drug efficiency and at the same time minimize side effects. As there is a great interpatient variability in response to chemotherapy, the development of predictive biomarkers is an ambitious aim for the rapidly growing research area of personalized molecular medicine. The individual prediction of response will improve treatment and thus increase survival and life quality of patients. In the past, cell cultures were used as in vitro models to predict in vivo response to chemotherapy. Several in vitro chemosensitivity assays served as tools to measure miscellaneous endpoints such as DNA damage, apoptosis and cytotoxicity or growth inhibition. Twenty years ago, the development of high-throughput technologies, e.g. cDNA microarrays enabled a more detailed analysis of drug responses. Thousands of genes were screened and expression levels were correlated to drug responses. In addition, mutation analysis became more and more important for the prediction of therapeutic success. Today, as research enters the area of -omics technologies, identification of signaling pathways is a tool to understand molecular mechanism underlying drug resistance. Combining new tissue models, e.g. 3D organoid cultures with modern technologies for biomarker discovery will offer new opportunities to identify new drug targets and in parallel predict individual responses to anticancer therapy. In this review, we present different currently used chemosensitivity assays including 2D and 3D cell culture models and several -omics approaches for the discovery of predictive biomarkers. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of these assays and biomarkers to predict the clinical outcome of individual patients and future perspectives.

Adolescents’ expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood

PubMed Central

McDade, Thomas W.; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J.; Hoyt, Lindsay T.; Doane, Leah D.; Adam, Emma K.

2011-01-01

Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.—perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college—are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. PMID:21764487

Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

PubMed

McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

2011-08-01

Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults.

PubMed

Moiz, Jamal Ali; Bansal, Vishal; Noohu, Majumi M; Gaur, Shailendra Nath; Hussain, Mohammad Ejaz; Anwer, Shahnawaz; Alghadir, Ahmad

2017-01-01

Activities-specific balance confidence (ABC) scale is a subjective measure of confidence in performing various ambulatory activities without falling or experiencing a sense of unsteadiness. This study aimed to examine the ability of the Hindi version of the ABC scale (ABC-H scale) to discriminate between fallers and non-fallers and to examine its predictive validity for prospective falls. This was a prospective cohort study. A total of 125 community-dwelling older adults (88 were men) completed the ABC-H scale. The occurrence of falls over the follow-up period of 12 months was recorded. Discriminative validity was analyzed by comparing the total ABC-H scale scores between the faller and non-faller groups. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and a logistic regression analysis were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the ABC-H scale. The mean ABC-H scale score of the faller group was significantly lower than that of the non-faller group (52.6±8.1 vs 73.1±12.2; P <0.001). The optimal cutoff value for distinguishing faller and non-faller adults was ≤58.13. The sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of the cutoff score were 86.3%, 87.3%, 0.91 ( P <0.001), 6.84, and 0.16, respectively. The percentage test accuracy and false-positive and false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004-0.25, P =0.001) was significantly related with future falls. The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values.

Getting What You Expect? Future Self-Views Predict the Valence of Life Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voss, Peggy; Kornadt, Anna E.; Rothermund, Klaus

2017-01-01

Views on aging have been shown to predict the occurrence of events related to physical health in previous studies. Extending these findings, we investigated the relation between aging-related future self-views and life events in a longitudinal study across a range of different life domains. Participants (N = 593, age range 30-80 years at…

Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

PubMed Central

Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

2013-01-01

People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

Resting-state regional cerebral blood flow during adolescence: associations with initiation of substance use and prediction of future use disorders.

PubMed

Ramage, Amy E; Lin, Ai-Ling; Olvera, Rene L; Fox, Peter T; Williamson, Douglas E

2015-04-01

Adolescence is a period of developmental flux when brain systems are vulnerable to influences of early substance use, which in turn relays increased risk for substance use disorders. Our study intent was to assess adolescent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) as it relates to current and future alcohol use. The aim was to identify brain-based predictors for initiation of alcohol use and onset of future substance use disorders. Quantitative rCBF was assessed in 100 adolescents (age 12-15). Prospective behavioral assessments were conducted annually over a three-year follow-up period to characterize onset of alcohol initiation, future drinking patterns and use disorders. Comparisons amongst use groups (i.e., current-, future-, and non-alcohol using adolescents) identified rCBF associated with initiation of alcohol use. Regression by future drinking patterns identified rCBF predictive of heavier drinking. Survival analysis determined whether or not baseline rCBF predicted later development of use disorders. Baseline rCBF was decreased to the parietal cortex and increased to mesolimbic regions in adolescents currently using alcohol as well as those who would use alcohol in the future. Higher baseline rCBF to the left fusiform gyrus and lower rCBF to the right inferior parietal cortex and left cerebellum was associated with future drinking patterns as well as predicted the onset of alcohol and substance use disorders in this cohort. Variations in resting rCBF to regions within reward and default mode or control networks appear to represent trait markers of alcohol use initiation and are predictive of future development of use disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy in acute coronary syndrome

PubMed Central

Wilson, Simon John; Newby, David E; Dawson, Dana; Irving, John; Berry, Colin

2017-01-01

Despite a large volume of evidence supporting the use of dual antiplatelet therapy in patients with acute coronary syndrome, there remains major uncertainty regarding the optimal duration of therapy. Clinical trials have varied markedly in the duration of therapy, both across and within trials. Recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses suggest that shorter durations of dual antiplatelet therapy are superior because the avoidance of atherothrombotic events is counterbalanced by the greater risks of excess major bleeding with apparent increases in all-cause mortality with longer durations. These findings did not show significant heterogeneity according to whether patients had stable or unstable coronary heart disease. Moreover, the potential hazards and benefits may differ when applied to the general broad population of patients encountered in everyday clinical practice who have markedly higher bleeding and atherothrombotic event rates. Clinicians lack definitive information regarding the duration of therapy in patients with acute coronary syndrome and risk scores do not appear to be sufficiently robust to address these concerns. We believe that there is a pressing need to undertake a broad inclusive safety trial of shorter durations of therapy in real world populations of patients with acute coronary syndrome. The clinical evidence would further inform future research into strategies for personalised medicine. PMID:28249994

Defining Long-Duration Traverses of Lunar Volcanic Complexes with LROC NAC Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stopar, J. D.; Lawrence, S. J.; Joliff, B. L.; Speyerer, E. J.; Robinson, M. S.

2016-01-01

A long-duration lunar rover [e.g., 1] would be ideal for investigating large volcanic complexes like the Marius Hills (MH) (approximately 300 x 330 km), where widely spaced sampling points are needed to explore the full geologic and compositional variability of the region. Over these distances, a rover would encounter varied surface morphologies (ranging from impact craters to rugged lava shields), each of which need to be considered during the rover design phase. Previous rovers including Apollo, Lunokhod, and most recently Yutu, successfully employed pre-mission orbital data for planning (at scales significantly coarser than that of the surface assets). LROC was specifically designed to provide mission-planning observations at scales useful for accurate rover traverse planning (crewed and robotic) [2]. After-the-fact analyses of the planning data can help improve predictions of future rover performance [e.g., 3-5].

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

PubMed

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

PubMed

Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

2016-03-01

Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health. © The Author(s) 2016.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

Longitudinal associations between time spent using technology and sleep duration among adolescents.

PubMed

Mazzer, K; Bauducco, S; Linton, S J; Boersma, K

2018-07-01

Technology use has been the focus of much concern for adolescents' sleep health. However, few studies have investigated the bidirectional association between sleep duration and time spent using technology. The aim of this study was to test whether time spent using technology predicted shorter sleep duration, and/or vice versa using cross-lagged analyses over one year. Participants were 1620 high school students in the 8th and 9th grade at baseline from 17 public schools in three middle Sweden communities. Students completed questionnaires at school during the spring of 2015 and 2016. Time spent using technology was self-reported and sleep duration was calculated from reported bed-times, wake-times and sleep onset latency. Time spent using technology significantly predicted shorter subsequent sleep duration and vice versa. Public health advocates educating others about the negative impacts of technology on sleep must also be mindful of the opposite, that many young people may turn to technological devices when experiencing difficulty sleeping. Copyright © 2018 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufeng; Hood, Wendy R

2016-10-15

Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

NEXT Long-Duration Test Neutralizer Performance and Erosion Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2009-01-01

The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced capabilities at a low total development cost. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster based on mission analyses. As of September 2, 2009, the thruster has accumulated 24,400 hr of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 434 kg of xenon, surpassing the NASA Solar Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program thruster propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal of 450 kg. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.1 10(exp 6zzz0 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. A reduction in neutralizer flow margin has been the only appreciable source of thruster performance degradation. The behavior of the neutralizer is not easily predicted due to both erosion and deposition observed in previous wear tests. Spot-to-plume mode transition flow data and in-situ erosion results for the LDT neutralizer are discussed. This loss of flow margin has been addressed through a combination of a design change in the prototype-model neutralizer to increase flow margin at low emission current and to update the NEXT throttle table to ensure adequate flow margin as a function of propellant throughput processed. The new throttle table will be used for future LDT operations. The performance of the NEXT LDT neutralizer is consistent with that observed for long-life hollow cathodes. The neutralizer life-limiting failure modes are progressing as expected

Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2015-12-01

In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

Dietary specialization is linked to reduced species durations in North American fossil canids

PubMed Central

Casey, Corinna; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2018-01-01

How traits influence species persistence is a fundamental question in ecology, evolution and palaeontology. We test the relationship between dietary traits and both species duration and locality coverage over 40 million years in North American canids, a clade with considerable ecomorphological disparity and a dense fossil record. Because ecomorphological generalization—broad resource use—may enable species to withstand disturbance, we predicted that canids of average size and mesocarnivory would exhibit longer durations and wider distributions than specialized larger or smaller species. Second, because locality coverage might reflect dispersal ability and/or survivability in a range of habitats, we predicted that high coverage would correspond with longer durations. We find a nonlinear relationship between species duration and degree of carnivory: species at either end of the carnivory spectrum tend to have shorter durations than mesocarnivores. Locality coverage shows no relationship with size, diet or duration. To test whether generalization (medium size, mesocarnivory) corresponds to an adaptive optimum, we fit trait evolution models to previously generated canid phylogenies. Our analyses identify no single optimum in size or diet. Instead, the primary model of size evolution is a classic Cope's Rule increase over time, while dietary evolution does not conform to a single model. PMID:29765649

Dietary specialization is linked to reduced species durations in North American fossil canids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balisi, Mairin; Casey, Corinna; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2018-04-01

How traits influence species persistence is a fundamental question in ecology, evolution and palaeontology. We test the relationship between dietary traits and both species duration and locality coverage over 40 million years in North American canids, a clade with considerable ecomorphological disparity and a dense fossil record. Because ecomorphological generalization-broad resource use-may enable species to withstand disturbance, we predicted that canids of average size and mesocarnivory would exhibit longer durations and wider distributions than specialized larger or smaller species. Second, because locality coverage might reflect dispersal ability and/or survivability in a range of habitats, we predicted that high coverage would correspond with longer durations. We find a nonlinear relationship between species duration and degree of carnivory: species at either end of the carnivory spectrum tend to have shorter durations than mesocarnivores. Locality coverage shows no relationship with size, diet or duration. To test whether generalization (medium size, mesocarnivory) corresponds to an adaptive optimum, we fit trait evolution models to previously generated canid phylogenies. Our analyses identify no single optimum in size or diet. Instead, the primary model of size evolution is a classic Cope's Rule increase over time, while dietary evolution does not conform to a single model.

Factors affecting gestation duration in the bitch.

PubMed

Eilts, Bruce E; Davidson, Autumn P; Hosgood, Giselle; Paccamonti, Dale L; Baker, David G

2005-07-15

A retrospective analysis was performed to determine the effects of age, breed, parity, and litter size on the duration of gestation in the bitch. Bitches at two locations were monitored from breeding to whelping. A total of 764 litters whelped from 308 bitches (36 large hounds, 34 Golden Retrievers, 23 German Shepherd Dogs (GSD), and 215 Labrador Retrievers). By breed, the number of whelpings was 152, 72, 58, and 482 for the hounds, Golden Retrievers, German Shepherd Dogs, and Labrador Retrievers, respectively. Whelping was predicted to be 57 d from the first day of cytologic diestrus in the hounds or 65 d from the initial progesterone rise in the other breeds. The average gestation duration (calculated as 8 d prior to Day 1 of cytologic diestrus in hounds or measured from the initial progesterone rise in other breeds) by breed (days +/- S.D.) was 66.0 +/- 2.8, 64.7 +/- 1.5, 63.6 +/- 2.1, and 62.9 +/- 1.3 for the hounds, Golden Retrievers, German Shepherd Dogs, and Labrador Retrievers, respectively. The relationship of age, breed, parity, and litter size with the difference in gestation duration was evaluated using log linear modeling. Age or parity had no effect on gestation duration. Compared to Labrador Retrievers, the German Shepherd Dogs, Golden Retrievers and hounds were more likely to have a longer gestation duration; three, four and nearly eight times as likely, respectively. Bitches whelping four or fewer pups were significantly more likely to have a longer gestation duration than those whelping five or more pups; the prolongation averaging 1 d.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

2010-01-01

Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4–13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions. PMID:18568397

What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

PubMed

Heinrichs, Bert

2005-01-01

Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

[Predictive factors of seclusion duration in patients hospitalized in psychiatry settings. A prospective multisite study in the DTRF Paris-Sud].

PubMed

Costemale-Lacoste, J-F; Cerboneschi, V; Trichard, C; De Beaurepaire, R; Villemain, F; Metton, J-P; Debacq, C; Ghanem, T; Martelli, C; Baup, E; Loeb, E; Hardy, P

2018-03-23

In psychiatric inpatient settings seclusion is a last resort to ensure the safety of the patient, other patients, and staff from disturbed behaviors. Despite its major interest for patients, seclusion could negatively impact treatment adherence and patient/staff relationships. Indeed, some secluded patients report a feeling of guilt during the measure and do not consider seclusion to be a healthcare intervention. To be more beneficial and to reduce the feeling by patients of being forced, seclusions should be as short and rare as possible. In other words, measures to reduce seclusion are available and have been clearly identified. Such measures could be applied, in the first instance, in patients with longer duration. In this way, the aim of this study was to investigate predictive factors of a seclusion of long duration. Our study was based on the dataset of the EPIC study, an observational prospective French multicenter study of seclusion and restraint. The EPIC study occurred in seven French psychiatric hospitals in the southern region of Paris. Inclusions were realized for 73days and allowed a data collection of 302 seclusion measures. Of these measures 236 were effectively a seclusion in a standardized room. Because the median duration was 7days, we defined two groups of patients: duration<7days and duration ≥ 7 days. Our variable to be explicated was duration ≥ 7 days. Explicative variables available in EPIC study were age, sex, forced hospitalization, autoagressivity, heteroagressivity, use of sedative treatment (oral or intramuscular), history of seclusion and patient diagnoses. We used bivariate and multivariate analyses to explore the association between a seclusion duration ≥ 7 days and explicative variables. Diagnoses were classified as psychotic disorders, mood disorders and others diagnoses. To be included in multivariate logistic regressions, diagnoses were treated as dummy variables (mood disorder vs psychotic disorders; psychotic

[Morbidity and mortality cardiovascular risk in dependence of type 2 diabetes duration].

PubMed

Gimeno Orna, José Antonio; Blasco Lamarca, Yolanda; Campos Gutierrez, Belén; Molinero Herguedas, Edmundo; Lou Arnal, Luis Miguel

2014-01-01

This study was aimed to assess the prognostic importance of diabetes duration to predict cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetic patients. Prospective cohort study with inclusion of type 2 diabetic patients. Follow-up lasted until the appearance of a cardiovascular event, until death or until 2012. Patients were classified into 5 groups in accordance to diabetes duration and baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD): group 1: ≤ 5 years without CVD; group 2: 6-10 years without CVD; group 3: 11-15 years without CVD; group 4: >15 years without CVD; group 5: baseline CVD independently of diabetes duration. CVD rates were expressed per 1000 patients-year and compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Log Rank Test. The predictive power of diabetes duration was evaluated by Cox regression. 457 patients, aged 64.9 (DE 9.3) years (38.9% males), were included. Diabetes duration was 10.5 (DE 7.6) years. 125 cardiovascular events occurred during 12.3 years follow-up. Cardiovascular event rates were progressively increased from groups 1 to 5 (group 1: 14.1; group 2: 18.3; group 3: 19.6; group 4: 32.9; group 5: 53.5; p<0.0001, linear tendency). Diabetes duration superior to 15 years significantly increased cardiovascular risk of the patients (HR=1.97; 95%CI: 1.23-3.15; P=.004). It could be useful to consider diabetes duration in order to stratify cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

Changes in apparent duration follow shifts in perceptual timing

PubMed Central

Bruno, Aurelio; Ayhan, Inci; Johnston, Alan

2015-01-01

It is well established that the apparent duration of moving visual objects is greater at higher as compared to slower speeds. Here we report the effects of acceleration and deceleration on the perceived duration of a drifting grating with average speed kept constant (10°/s).For acceleration, increasing the speed range progressively reduced perceived duration. The magnitude of apparent duration compression was determined by speed rather than temporal frequency and was proportional to speed range (independent of standard duration) rather than acceleration. The perceived duration reduction was also proportional to the standard length. The effects of increases and decreases in speed were highly asymmetric. Reducing speed through the interval induced a moderate increase in perceived duration. These results could not be explained by changes in apparent onset or offset or differences in perceived average speed between intervals containing increasing speed and intervals containing decreasing speed. Paradoxically, for intervals combining increasing speed and decreasing speed, compression only occurred when increasing speed occurred in the second half of the interval. We show that this pattern of results in the duration domain was concomitant with changes in the reported direction of apparent motion of Gaussian blobs, embedded in intervals of increasing or decreasing speed, that could be predicted from adaptive changes in the temporal impulse response function. We detected similar changes after flicker adaptation, suggesting that the two effects might be linked through changes in the temporal tuning of visual filters. PMID:26024450

Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

PubMed Central

Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2016-01-01

Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

PubMed

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Willick, Stuart E

2016-05-01

The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000-09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL.

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE

PubMed Central

MARROQUÍN, BRETT; NOLEN-HOEKSEMA, SUSAN

2015-01-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals’ predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals’ tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression. PMID:26146452

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE.

PubMed

Marroquín, Brett; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

2015-02-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future ( likelihood estimation ) and how the future will feel ( affective forecasting ) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals ( n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls ( n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals' tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls-and on positive emotion less-independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression.

Short sleep duration and poor sleep quality predict next-day suicidal ideation: an ecological momentary assessment study.

PubMed

Littlewood, Donna L; Kyle, Simon D; Carter, Lesley-Anne; Peters, Sarah; Pratt, Daniel; Gooding, Patricia

2018-04-26

Sleep problems are a modifiable risk factor for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Yet, sparse research has examined temporal relationships between sleep disturbance, suicidal ideation, and psychological factors implicated in suicide, such as entrapment. This is the first in-the-moment investigation of relationships between suicidal ideation, objective and subjective sleep parameters, and perceptions of entrapment. Fifty-one participants with current suicidal ideation completed week-long ecological momentary assessments. An actigraph watch was worn for the duration of the study, which monitored total sleep time, sleep efficiency, and sleep latency. Daily sleep diaries captured subjective ratings of the same sleep parameters, with the addition of sleep quality. Suicidal ideation and entrapment were measured at six quasi-random time points each day. Multi-level random intercept models and moderation analyses were conducted to examine the links between sleep, entrapment, and suicidal ideation, adjusting for anxiety and depression severity. Analyses revealed a unidirectional relationship whereby short sleep duration (both objective and subjective measures), and poor sleep quality, predicted the higher severity of next-day suicidal ideation. However, there was no significant association between daytime suicidal ideation and sleep the following night. Sleep quality moderated the relationship between pre-sleep entrapment and awakening levels of suicidal ideation. This is the first study to report night-to-day relationships between sleep disturbance, suicidal ideation, and entrapment. Findings suggest that sleep quality may alter the strength of the relationship between pre-sleep entrapment and awakening suicidal ideation. Clinically, results underscore the importance of assessing and treating sleep disturbance when working with those experiencing suicidal ideation.

Extended Duration Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Inhibition in the Eye: Failures, Successes, and Future Possibilities.

PubMed

Stewart, Michael W

2018-01-27

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays a pivotal role in the development of neovascularization and edema from several common chorioretinal vascular conditions. The intravitreally injected drugs (aflibercept, bevacizumab, conbercept, pegaptanib, and ranibizumab) used to treat these conditions improve the visual acuity and macular morphology in most patients. Monthly or bimonthly injections were administered in the phase III pivotal trials but physicians usually individualize therapy with pro re nata (PRN) or treat and extend regimens. Despite these lower frequency treatment regimens, frequent injections and clinic visits are still needed to produce satisfactory outcomes. Newly developed drugs and refillable reservoirs with favorable pharmacokinetic profiles may extend durations of action and require fewer office visits. However, we have learned from previous experiences that the longer durations of action seen in strategically designed phase III trials often do not translate to less frequent injections in real-life clinical practice. Unfortunately, long-acting therapies that produce soluble VEGF receptors (encapsulated cell technology and adenovirus injected DNA) have failed in phase II trials. The development of longer duration therapies remains a difficult and frustrating process, and frequent drug injections are likely to remain the standard-of-care for years to come.

Comparison of QRS Duration and Associated Cardiovascular Events in American Indian Men Versus Women (The Strong Heart Study).

PubMed

Deen, Jason F; Rhoades, Dorothy A; Noonan, Carolyn; Best, Lyle G; Okin, Peter M; Devereux, Richard B; Umans, Jason G

2017-06-01

Electrocardiographic QRS duration at rest is associated with sudden cardiac death and death from coronary heart disease in the general population. However, its relation to cardiovascular events in American Indians, a population with persistently high cardiovascular disease mortality, is unknown. The relation of QRS duration to incident cardiovascular disease during 17.2 years of follow-up was assessed in 1,851 male and female Strong Heart Study participants aged 45 to 74 years without known cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox regression with robust standard error estimates was used to determine the association between quintiles of QRS duration and incident cardiovascular disease in gender-stratified analyses, adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, body mass index, current smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and albuminuria. In women only, QRS duration in the highest quintile (≥105 ms) conferred significantly higher risk of cardiovascular disease than QRS duration in the lowest quintile (64 to 84 ms) (hazard ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.4) likely because of higher risks of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.1) and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.7). Furthermore, when added to the Strong Heart Study Coronary Heart Disease Risk Calculator, QRS duration significantly improved prediction of future coronary heart disease events in women (Net Reclassification Index 0.17, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.47). In conclusion, QRS duration is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease in women in the Strong Heart Study cohort and may have value in estimating risk in populations with similar risk profiles and a high lifetime incidence of cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters

PubMed Central

Lundberg, Kristjen B.; Payne, B. Keith

2014-01-01

Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters. PMID:24489666

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh; Lee, Bo-Ra

2015-07-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought Prediction till 2100 Under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, H. R.; Park, C. K.; Deo, R. C.

2014-12-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilizes the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Home environment, not duration of breast-feeding, predicts intelligence quotient of children at four years.

PubMed

Zhou, Shao J; Baghurst, Peter; Gibson, Robert A; Makrides, Maria

2007-03-01

We investigated the relation between duration of breast-feeding in infancy and the intelligence quotient (IQ) of children at 4 y of age in a well-nourished population of an industrialized country. Data on duration of breast-feeding were collected prospectively from a cohort of 302 children born between 1998 and 1999 in Adelaide, Australia. The IQ of the children was assessed at 4 y of age using the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale. Information on important predictors of childhood IQ including the quality of the home environment was also collected prospectively. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the effect of duration of breast-feeding on IQ with adjustment for potential confounders. There was no association between the duration of breast-feeding and IQ of the children. The expected IQ of a child at 4 y of age who was breast-fed for 6 mo was only 0.2 point (95% confidence interval -0.8 to 1.2) higher than that of a child who had never been breast-fed after adjustments for the quality of the home environment and socioeconomic characteristics of families using multivariable regression analysis. The quality of the home environment, as assessed by the Home Screening Questionnaire, was the strongest predictor of IQ at 4 y. There was no association between duration of breast-feeding and childhood IQ in this relatively well-nourished cohort from an industrialized society. In such settings, the apparent benefit of breast-feeding on cognitive function is most likely attributable to sociodemographic factors.

A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

PubMed

Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

2015-01-01

The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement

Effects of Duration of Electronic Cigarette Use

PubMed Central

Tackett, Alayna P.; Grant, DeMond M.; Tahirkheli, Noor N.; Driskill, Leslie M.; Wagener, Theodore L.

2015-01-01

Introduction: This study examined the effect of duration electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use on e-cigarette dependence, frequency of use, and strength of nicotine solution as well as number of cigarettes smoked per day. Methods: Individuals were recruited at e-cigarette retail locations in a large Midwestern metropolitan city of the United States in July 2013. A total of 159 participants completed a brief 29-item self-report measure that assessed behaviors and perceptions of use. The mean age of the participants was 35.8 years; 84.4% were White, and 53.7% were male. Results: Increased duration of e-cigarette use was associated with fewer cigarettes smoked per day and differing patterns of dependence to e-cigarettes contingent upon smoking history. Additionally, increased duration of e-cigarette use was associated with increased frequency of use; however, this finding became nonsignificant when current tobacco cigarette use was accounted for, suggesting that individuals may increase e-cigarette use frequency as they decrease cigarette use. Overall, e-cigarette users tended to decrease the strength of nicotine in their e-cigarette products regardless of duration of use. Conclusions: Although preliminary in nature, this study identifies several factors that are important to consider when examining the effects of prolonged e-cigarette use. The implications of the current results should be informative to future studies that examine these variables in longitudinal designs. PMID:24827788

Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

PubMed Central

Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

Architectural considerations for lunar long duration habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahrami, Payam

The future of space exploration science and technology is expected to move toward long duration missions. During this long duration missions the most important factor to success will be the habitation system, the place that crew will live and work. The broad range of future space exploration, new advances in technology and increasing demand for space travel and space tourism will create great opportunities for architects to use their special abilities and skills in the realm of space. The lunar habitat is defined as a multidisciplinary task and cannot be considered an independent project from the main module. Therefore, habitability will become the most important aspect of future human exploration. A successful design strategy should integrate architecture, structure and other disciplines and should bring in elements such as psychological and physiological factors, human interfaces, and privacy. The current research provides "Habitat Architectural Design System (HADS)" in order to evaluate lunar habitat concepts based on habitability, functional optimization, and human factors. HADS helps to promote parametric studied and evaluation of habitat concepts. It will provide a guideline dependent upon mission objectives to standardize architectural needs within the engineering applications and scientific demands. The significance of this research is the process of developing lunar habitat concepts using an architectural system to evaluate the quality of each concept via habitability aspects. This process can be employed during the early stage of design development and is flexible enough to be adjusted by different parameters according to the objectives of lunar mission, limitations, and cost. It also emphasizes the importance of architecture involvement in space projects, especially habitats.

The impact of climatological model biases in the North Atlantic jet on predicted future circulation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.

2015-12-01

A long standing bias among global climate models (GCMs) is their incorrect representation of the wintertime circulation of the North Atlantic region. Specifically models tend to exhibit a North Atlantic jet (and associated storm track) that is too zonal, extending across central Europe, when it should tilt northward toward Scandinavia. GCM's consistently predict substantial changes in the large scale circulation in this region, consisting of a localized anti-cyclonic circulation, centered over the Mediterranean and accompanied by increased aridity there and increased storminess over Northern Europe.Here, we present preliminary results from experiments that are designed to address the question of what the impact of the climatological circulation biases might be on this predicted future response. Climate change experiments will be compared in two versions of the Community Earth System Model: the first is a free running version of the model, as typically used in climate prediction; the second is a bias corrected version of the model in which a seasonally varying cycle of bias correction tendencies are applied to the wind and temperature fields. These bias correction tendencies are designed to account for deficiencies in the fast parameterized processes, with an aim to push the model toward a more realistic climatology.While these experiments come with the caveat that they assume the bias correction tendencies will remain constant with time, they allow for an initial assessment, through controlled experiments, of the impact that biases in the climatological circulation can have on future predictions in this region. They will also motivate future work that can make use of the bias correction tendencies to understand the underlying physical processes responsible for the incorrect tilt of the jet.

Determinants of Acute Kidney Injury Duration After Cardiac Surgery: An Externally Validated Tool

PubMed Central

Brown, Jeremiah R.; Kramer, Robert S.; MacKenzie, Todd A.; Coca, Steven G.; Sint, Kyaw; Parikh, Chirag R.

2013-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) duration following cardiac surgery is associated with poor survival in a dose-dependent manner. However, it is not known what peri-operative risk factors contribute to prolonged AKI and delayed recovery. We sought to identify peri-operative risk factors that predict duration of AKI, a complication that effects short and long term survival. Methods We studied 4,987 consecutive cardiac surgery patients from 2002 through 2007. AKI was defined as a ≥0.3 (mg/dL) or ≥50% increase in SCr from baseline. Duration of AKI was defined by the number of days AKI was present. Step-wise multivariable negative binomial regression analysis was conducted using peri-operative risk factors for AKI duration. C-index was estimated by Kendall’s tau. Results AKI developed in 39% of patients with a median duration of AKI at 3 days and ranged from 1 to 108 days. Patients without AKI had duration of zero days. Independent predictors of AKI duration included baseline patient and disease characteristics, operative and post-operative factors. Prediction for mean duration of AKI was developed using coefficients from the regression model and externally validated the model on 1,219 cardiac surgery patients in a separate cardiac surgery cohort (TRIBE-AKI). The C-index was 0.65 (p<0.001) for the derivation cohort and 0.62 (p<0.001) for the validation cohort. Conclusion We identified and externally validated peri-operative predictors of AKI duration. These risk-factors will be useful to evaluate a patient’s risk for the tempo of recovery from AKI after cardiac surgery and subsequent short and long term survival. The level of awareness created by working with these risk factors have implications regarding positive changes in processes of care that have the potential to decrease the incidence and mitigate AKI. PMID:22206952

Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task

PubMed Central

Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

2013-01-01

Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time. PMID:23325347

Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task.

PubMed

Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

2013-01-16

Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time.

Intracranial pressure-induced optic nerve sheath response as a predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts.

PubMed

Wostyn, Peter; De Deyn, Peter Paul

2017-11-01

A significant proportion of the astronauts who spend extended periods in microgravity develop ophthalmic abnormalities. Understanding this syndrome, called visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP), has become a high priority for National Aeronautics and Space Administration, especially in view of future long-duration missions (e.g., Mars missions). Moreover, to ensure selection of astronaut candidates who will be able to complete long-duration missions with low risk of the VIIP syndrome, it is imperative to identify biomarkers for VIIP risk prediction. Here, we hypothesize that the optic nerve sheath response to alterations in intracranial pressure may be a potential predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts. If confirmed, this biomarker could be used for preflight identification of astronauts at risk for developing VIIP-associated optic disc edema.

Does the covariance structure matter in longitudinal modelling for the prediction of future CD4 counts?

PubMed

Taylor, J M; Law, N

1998-10-30

We investigate the importance of the assumed covariance structure for longitudinal modelling of CD4 counts. We examine how individual predictions of future CD4 counts are affected by the covariance structure. We consider four covariance structures: one based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process; one based on Brownian motion, and two derived from standard linear and quadratic random-effects models. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and from a simulation study, we show that there is a noticeable deterioration in the coverage rate of confidence intervals if we assume the wrong covariance. There is also a loss in efficiency. The quadratic random-effects model is found to be the best in terms of correctly calibrated prediction intervals, but is substantially less efficient than the others. Incorrectly specifying the covariance structure as linear random effects gives too narrow prediction intervals with poor coverage rates. Fitting using the model based on the integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process is the preferred one of the four considered because of its efficiency and robustness properties. We also use the difference between the future predicted and observed CD4 counts to assess an appropriate transformation of CD4 counts; a fourth root, cube root and square root all appear reasonable choices.

Sleep Duration and Area-Level Deprivation in Twins.

PubMed

Watson, Nathaniel F; Horn, Erin; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Vitiello, Michael V; Turkheimer, Eric

2016-01-01

We used quantitative genetic models to assess whether area-level deprivation as indicated by the Singh Index predicts shorter sleep duration and modifies its underlying genetic and environmental contributions. Participants were 4,218 adult twin pairs (2,377 monozygotic and 1,841 dizygotic) from the University of Washington Twin Registry. Participants self-reported habitual sleep duration. The Singh Index was determined by linking geocoding addresses to 17 indicators at the census-tract level using data from Census of Washington State and Census Tract Cartographic Boundary Files from 2000 and 2010. Data were analyzed using univariate and bivariate genetic decomposition and quantitative genetic interaction models that assessed A (additive genetics), C (common environment), and E (unique environment) main effects of the Singh Index on sleep duration and allowed the magnitude of residual ACE variance components in sleep duration to vary with the Index. The sample had a mean age of 38.2 y (standard deviation [SD] = 18), and was predominantly female (62%) and Caucasian (91%). Mean sleep duration was 7.38 h (SD = 1.20) and the mean Singh Index score was 0.00 (SD = 0.89). The heritability of sleep duration was 39% and the Singh Index was 12%. The uncontrolled phenotypic regression of sleep duration on the Singh Index showed a significant negative relationship between area-level deprivation and sleep length (b = -0.080, P < 0.001). Every 1 SD in Singh Index was associated with a ∼4.5 min change in sleep duration. For the quasi-causal bivariate model, there was a significant main effect of E (b(0E) = -0.063; standard error [SE] = 0.30; P < 0.05). Residual variance components unique to sleep duration were significant for both A (b(0Au) = 0.734; SE = 0.020; P < 0.001) and E (b(0Eu) = 0.934; SE = 0.013; P < 0.001). Area-level deprivation has a quasi-causal association with sleep duration, with greater deprivation being related to shorter sleep. As area-level deprivation

Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

Longitudinal associations between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Magee, Lorrie

2011-01-01

Objective To systematically examine the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain in observational longitudinal human studies Methods Systematic review of twenty longitudinal studies published from 2004-October 31, 2010 Results While adult studies (n=13) reported inconsistent results on the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain, studies with children (n=7) more consistently reported a positive relationship between short sleep duration and weight gain. Conclusion While shorter sleep duration consistently predicts subsequent weight gain in children, the relationship is not clear in adults. We discuss possible limitations of the current studies: 1.) the diminishing association between short sleep duration on weight gain over time after transition to short sleep, 2.) lack of inclusion of appropriate confounding, mediating, and moderating variables (i.e. sleep complaints and sedentary behavior), and 3.) measurement issues. PMID:21784678

Specific Factors Influence Postconcussion Symptom Duration among Youth Referred to a Sports Concussion Clinic.

PubMed

Heyer, Geoffrey L; Schaffer, Caroline E; Rose, Sean C; Young, Julie A; McNally, Kelly A; Fischer, Anastasia N

2016-07-01

To identify the clinical factors that influence the duration of postconcussion symptoms among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate several potential predictors of symptom duration via a Cox proportional hazards analyses. The individual postconcussion symptom scores were highly correlated, so these symptoms were analyzed in the statistical model as coefficients derived from principal component analyses. Among 1953 youth with concussion, 1755 (89.9%) had dates of reported symptom resolution. The remainder (10.1%) were lost to follow-up and censored. The median time to recovery was 18 days (range 1-353 days). By 30 days, 72.6% had recovered; by 60 days, 91.4% had recovered; and by 90 days, 96.8% had recovered. Several variables in a multivariate Cox model predicted postconcussion symptom duration: female sex (P < .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28), continued activity participation (P = .02, HR = 1.13), loss of consciousness (P = .03, HR = 1.18), anterograde amnesia (P = .04, HR = 1.15), premorbid headaches (P = .03, HR = 1.15), symptom components from the day of concussion (emotion, P = .03, HR = 1.08), and the day of clinic evaluation (cognitive-fatigue, P < .001, HR = 1.22; cephalalgic, P < .001, HR = 1.27; emotional, P = .05, HR = 1.08; arousal-stimulation, P = .003, HR = 1.1). In univariate analyses, greater symptom scores generally predicted longer symptom durations. Worsening of symptoms from the day of concussion to the day of clinic evaluation also predicted longer recovery (P < .001, HR = 1.59). Several factors help to predict protracted postconcussion symptom durations among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy in acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Wilson, Simon John; Newby, David E; Dawson, Dana; Irving, John; Berry, Colin

2017-04-01

Despite a large volume of evidence supporting the use of dual antiplatelet therapy in patients with acute coronary syndrome, there remains major uncertainty regarding the optimal duration of therapy. Clinical trials have varied markedly in the duration of therapy, both across and within trials. Recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses suggest that shorter durations of dual antiplatelet therapy are superior because the avoidance of atherothrombotic events is counterbalanced by the greater risks of excess major bleeding with apparent increases in all-cause mortality with longer durations. These findings did not show significant heterogeneity according to whether patients had stable or unstable coronary heart disease. Moreover, the potential hazards and benefits may differ when applied to the general broad population of patients encountered in everyday clinical practice who have markedly higher bleeding and atherothrombotic event rates. Clinicians lack definitive information regarding the duration of therapy in patients with acute coronary syndrome and risk scores do not appear to be sufficiently robust to address these concerns. We believe that there is a pressing need to undertake a broad inclusive safety trial of shorter durations of therapy in real world populations of patients with acute coronary syndrome. The clinical evidence would further inform future research into strategies for personalised medicine. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

The Shortest QRS Duration of an Electrocardiogram Might Be an Optimal Electrocardiographic Predictor for Response to Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy.

PubMed

Chen, Jan-Yow; Lin, Kuo-Hung; Chang, Kuan-Cheng; Chou, Che-Yi

2017-08-03

QRS duration has been associated with the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, the methods for defining QRS duration to predict the outcome of CRT have discrepancies in previous reports. The aim of this study was to determine an optimal measurement of QRS duration to predict the response to CRT.Sixty-one patients who received CRT were analyzed. All patients had class III-IV heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction not more than 35%, and complete left bundle branch block. The shortest, longest, and average QRS durations from the 12 leads of each electrocardiogram (ECG) were measured. The responses to CRT were determined using the changes in echocardiography after 6 months. Thirty-five (57.4%) patients were responders and 26 (42.6%) patients were non-responders. The pre-procedure shortest, average, and longest QRS durations and the QRS shortening (ΔQRS) of the shortest QRS duration were significantly associated with the response to CRT in a univariate logistic regression analysis (P = 0.002, P = 0.03, P = 0.04 and P = 0.04, respectively). Based on the measurement of the area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve, only the pre-procedure shortest QRS duration and the ΔQRS of the shortest QRS duration showed significant discrimination for the response to CRT (P = 0.002 and P = 0.038, respectively). Multivariable logistic regression showed the pre-procedure shortest QRS duration is an independent predictor for the response to CRT.The shortest QRS duration from the 12 leads of the electrocardiogram might be an optimal measurement to predict the response to CRT.

Sleep Duration and Area-Level Deprivation in Twins

PubMed Central

Watson, Nathaniel F.; Horn, Erin; Duncan, Glen E.; Buchwald, Dedra; Vitiello, Michael V.; Turkheimer, Eric

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: We used quantitative genetic models to assess whether area-level deprivation as indicated by the Singh Index predicts shorter sleep duration and modifies its underlying genetic and environmental contributions. Methods: Participants were 4,218 adult twin pairs (2,377 monozygotic and 1,841 dizygotic) from the University of Washington Twin Registry. Participants self-reported habitual sleep duration. The Singh Index was determined by linking geocoding addresses to 17 indicators at the census-tract level using data from Census of Washington State and Census Tract Cartographic Boundary Files from 2000 and 2010. Data were analyzed using univariate and bivariate genetic decomposition and quantitative genetic interaction models that assessed A (additive genetics), C (common environment), and E (unique environment) main effects of the Singh Index on sleep duration and allowed the magnitude of residual ACE variance components in sleep duration to vary with the Index. Results: The sample had a mean age of 38.2 y (standard deviation [SD] = 18), and was predominantly female (62%) and Caucasian (91%). Mean sleep duration was 7.38 h (SD = 1.20) and the mean Singh Index score was 0.00 (SD = 0.89). The heritability of sleep duration was 39% and the Singh Index was 12%. The uncontrolled phenotypic regression of sleep duration on the Singh Index showed a significant negative relationship between area-level deprivation and sleep length (b = −0.080, P < 0.001). Every 1 SD in Singh Index was associated with a ∼4.5 min change in sleep duration. For the quasi-causal bivariate model, there was a significant main effect of E (b0E = −0.063; standard error [SE] = 0.30; P < 0.05). Residual variance components unique to sleep duration were significant for both A (b0Au = 0.734; SE = 0.020; P < 0.001) and E (b0Eu = 0.934; SE = 0.013; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Area-level deprivation has a quasi-causal association with sleep duration, with greater deprivation being related to

Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

PubMed

Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

2018-05-02

Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged <1 year had the longest median exposure duration (79 minutes, IQR: 39-119) with 90th percentile 210 minutes, and 13.7% of this very young cohort was exposed for >3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for <3 hours, certain groups may be at increased risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Is the relationship between race and continuous positive airway pressure adherence mediated by sleep duration?

PubMed

Billings, Martha E; Rosen, Carol L; Wang, Rui; Auckley, Dennis; Benca, Ruth; Foldvary-Schaefer, Nancy; Iber, Conrad; Zee, Phyllis; Redline, Susan; Kapur, Vishesh K

2013-02-01

Black race has been associated with decreased continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence. Short sleep duration, long sleep latency, and insomnia complaints may affect CPAP adherence as they affect sleep and opportunity to use CPAP. We assessed whether self-reported sleep measures were associated with CPAP adherence and if racial variations in these sleep characteristics may explain racial differences in CPAP adherence. Analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial (HomePAP), which investigated home versus laboratory-based diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. Seven American Academy of Sleep Medicine-accredited sleep centers in five cities in the United States. Enrolled subjects (n = 191) with apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 and sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale > 12). N/A. Multivariable regression was used to assess if subjective sleep measures and symptoms predicted 3-mo CPAP use. Mediation analysis was used to assess if sleep measures mediated the association of race with CPAP adherence. Black participants reported shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency at baseline than white and Hispanic participants. Shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency predicted worse CPAP adherence. Sleep duration mediated the association of black race with lower CPAP adherence. However, insomnia symptoms were not associated with race or CPAP adherence. Among subjects with similar severity of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness, baseline self-reported sleep duration and latency, but not perceived insomnia, predicted CPAP adherence over 3 mo. Sleep duration explains some of the observed differences in CPAP use by race. Sleep duration and latency should be considered when evaluating poor CPAP adherence. PORTABLE MONITORING FOR DIAGNOSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF SLEEP APNEA (HOMEPAP) URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00642486. NIH clinical trials registry number: NCT00642486.

Differential Changes in QTc Duration during In-Hospital Haloperidol Use

PubMed Central

Blom, Marieke T.; Bardai, Abdennasser; van Munster, Barbara C.; Nieuwland, Mei-Ing; de Jong, Hendrik; van Hoeijen, Daniel A.; Spanjaart, Anne M.; de Boer, Anthonius; de Rooij, Sophia E.; Tan, Hanno L.

2011-01-01

Aims To evaluate changes in QT duration during low-dose haloperidol use, and determine associations between clinical variables and potentially dangerous QT prolongation. Methods In a retrospective cohort study in a tertiary university teaching hospital in The Netherlands, all 1788 patients receiving haloperidol between 2005 and 2007 were studied; ninety-seven were suitable for final analysis. Rate-corrected QT duration (QTc) was measured before, during and after haloperidol use. Clinical variables before haloperidol use and at the time of each ECG recording were retrieved from hospital charts. Mixed model analysis was used to estimate changes in QT duration. Risk factors for potentially dangerous QT prolongation were estimated by logistic regression analysis. Results Patients with normal before-haloperidol QTc duration (male ≤430 ms, female ≤450 ms) had a significant increase in QTc duration of 23 ms during haloperidol use; twenty-three percent of patients rose to abnormal levels (male ≥450 ms, female ≥470 ms). In contrast, a significant decrease occurred in patients with borderline (male 430–450 ms, female 450–470 ms) or abnormal before-haloperidol QTc duration (15 ms and 46 ms, respectively); twenty-three percent of patients in the borderline group, and only 9% of patients in the abnormal group obtained abnormal levels. Potentially dangerous QTc prolongation was independently associated with surgery before haloperidol use (ORadj 34.9, p = 0.009) and before-haloperidol QTc duration (ORadj 0.94, p = 0.004). Conclusion QTc duration during haloperidol use changes differentially, increasing in patients with normal before-haloperidol QTc duration, but decreasing in patients with prolonged before-haloperidol QTc duration. Shorter before-haloperidol QTc duration and surgery before haloperidol use predict potentially dangerous QTc prolongation. PMID:21961030

Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litchman, E.; Klausmeier, C. A.; Miller, J. R.; Schofield, O. M.; Falkowski, P. G.

2006-11-01

Phytoplankton community composition profoundly affects patterns of nutrient cycling and the dynamics of marine food webs; therefore predicting present and future phytoplankton community structure is crucial to understand how ocean ecosystems respond to physical forcing and nutrient limitations. We develop a mechanistic model of phytoplankton communities that includes multiple taxonomic groups (diatoms, coccolithophores and prasinophytes), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron), light, and a generalist zooplankton grazer. Each taxonomic group was parameterized based on an extensive literature survey. We test the model at two contrasting sites in the modern ocean, the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and subarctic North Pacific (ocean station Papa, OSP). The model successfully predicts general patterns of community composition and succession at both sites: In the North Atlantic, the model predicts a spring diatom bloom, followed by coccolithophore and prasinophyte blooms later in the season. In the North Pacific, the model reproduces the low chlorophyll community dominated by prasinophytes and coccolithophores, with low total biomass variability and high nutrient concentrations throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the identity of the most sensitive parameters and the range of acceptable parameters differed between the two sites. We then use the model to predict community reorganization under different global change scenarios: a later onset and extended duration of stratification, with shallower mixed layer depths due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations; increase in deep water nitrogen; decrease in deep water phosphorus and increase or decrease in iron concentration. To estimate uncertainty in our predictions, we used a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space where future scenarios were run using parameter combinations that produced acceptable modern day outcomes and the robustness of the

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future.

PubMed

Hayes, A J; Lung, T W C; Bauman, A; Howard, K

2017-01-01

Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025. Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level. The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels. The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.

Duration of untreated psychosis: Impact of the definition of treatment onset on its predictive value over three years of treatment.

PubMed

Golay, Philippe; Alameda, Luis; Baumann, Philipp; Elowe, Julien; Progin, Pierre; Polari, Andrea; Conus, Philippe

2016-06-01

While reduction of DUP (Duration of Untreated Psychosis) is a key goal in early intervention strategies, the predictive value of DUP on outcome has been questioned. We planned this study in order to explore the impact of three different definition of "treatment initiation" on the predictive value of DUP on outcome in an early psychosis sample. 221 early psychosis patients aged 18-35 were followed-up prospectively over 36 months. DUP was measured using three definitions for treatment onset: Initiation of antipsychotic medication (DUP1); engagement in a specialized programme (DUP2) and combination of engagement in a specialized programme and adherence to medication (DUP3). 10% of patients never reached criteria for DUP3 and therefore were never adequately treated over the 36-month period of care. While DUP1 and DUP2 had a limited predictive value on outcome, DUP3, based on a more restrictive definition for treatment onset, was a better predictor of positive and negative symptoms, as well as functional outcome at 12, 24 and 36 months. Globally, DUP3 explained 2 to 5 times more of the variance than DUP1 and DUP2, with effect sizes falling in the medium range according to Cohen. The limited predictive value of DUP on outcome in previous studies may be linked to problems of definitions that do not take adherence to treatment into account. While they need replication, our results suggest effort to reduce DUP should continue and aim both at early detection and development of engagement strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of the Weibull function to predict future diameter distributions from current plot data

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2012-01-01

The Weibull function has been widely used to characterize diameter distributions in forest stands. The future diameter distribution of a forest stand can be predicted by use of a Weibull probability density function from current inventory data for that stand. The parameter recovery approach has been used to “recover” the Weibull parameters from diameter moments or...

Prediction of future asset prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

2014-12-01

This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

2016-01-01

To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

PubMed

Bruno, John G

2015-04-16

Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

Is the Relationship between Race and Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Adherence Mediated by Sleep Duration?

PubMed Central

Billings, Martha E.; Rosen, Carol L.; Wang, Rui; Auckley, Dennis; Benca, Ruth; Foldvary-Schaefer, Nancy; Iber, Conrad; Zee, Phyllis; Redline, Susan; Kapur, Vishesh K.

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: Black race has been associated with decreased continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence. Short sleep duration, long sleep latency, and insomnia complaints may affect CPAP adherence as they affect sleep and opportunity to use CPAP. We assessed whether self-reported sleep measures were associated with CPAP adherence and if racial variations in these sleep characteristics may explain racial differences in CPAP adherence. Design: Analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial (HomePAP), which investigated home versus laboratory-based diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. Setting: Seven American Academy of Sleep Medicine-accredited sleep centers in five cities in the United States. Patients or Participants: Enrolled subjects (n = 191) with apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 and sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale > 12). Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Multivariable regression was used to assess if subjective sleep measures and symptoms predicted 3-mo CPAP use. Mediation analysis was used to assess if sleep measures mediated the association of race with CPAP adherence. Black participants reported shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency at baseline than white and Hispanic participants. Shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency predicted worse CPAP adherence. Sleep duration mediated the association of black race with lower CPAP adherence. However, insomnia symptoms were not associated with race or CPAP adherence. Conclusions: Among subjects with similar severity of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness, baseline self-reported sleep duration and latency, but not perceived insomnia, predicted CPAP adherence over 3 mo. Sleep duration explains some of the observed differences in CPAP use by race. Sleep duration and latency should be considered when evaluating poor CPAP adherence. Clinical Trial Information: Portable Monitoring for Diagnosis and Management of Sleep Apnea (HomePAP) URL: http

Forced vital capacity and not central chemoreflex predicts maximal hyperoxic breath-hold duration in elite apneists.

PubMed

Bain, Anthony R; Barak, Otto F; Hoiland, Ryan L; Drvis, Ivan; Bailey, Damian M; Dujic, Zeljko; Mijacika, Tanja; Santoro, Antoinette; DeMasi, Daniel K; MacLeod, David B; Ainslie, Philip N

2017-08-01

The determining mechanisms of a maximal hyperoxic apnea duration in elite apneists have remained unexplored. We tested the hypothesis that maximal hyperoxic apnea duration in elite apneists is related to forced vital capacity (FVC) but not the central chemoreflex (for CO 2 ). Eleven elite apneists performed a maximal dry static-apnea with prior hyperoxic (100% oxygen) pre-breathing, and a central chemoreflex test via a hyperoxic re-breathing technique (hyperoxic-hypercapnic ventilatory response: HCVR); expressed as the increase in ventilation (pneumotachometry) per increase in arterial CO 2 tension (PaCO 2 ; radial artery). FVC was assessed using standard spirometry. Maximal apnea duration ranged from 807 to 1262s (mean=1034s). Average HCVR was 2.0±1.2Lmin -1 mmHg -1 PaCO 2 . The hyperoxic apnea duration was related to the FVC (r 2 =0.45, p<0.05), but not the HCVR (r 2 <0.01, p>0.05). These findings were interpreted to suggest that during a hyperoxic apnea, a larger initial lung volume prolongs the time before reaching intolerable discomfort associated with pending lung squeeze, while CO 2 sensitivity has little impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein is independent from symptom duration in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Lankeit, Mareike; Dellas, Claudia; Benz, Viola; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Konstantinides, Stavros

2013-11-01

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). In patients with acute myocardial infarction, H-FABP plasma concentrations rise after 30 minutes and return to normal within 20-24 hours. We tested whether the predictive value of H-FABP is affected by the duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis in patients with PE. We prospectively studied 257 consecutive normotensive patients with confirmed symptomatic PE. Patients with acute (<24 hours; n=150) symptom onset presented more often with syncope (28.7% vs. 6.5%; p<0.001) compared to patients with symptoms ≥ 24 hours (n=107); other baseline characteristics, comorbidities, and risk factors were distributed equally. Patients with an adverse 30-day outcome (6.6%) had higher H-FABP levels (11.84 [3.57-19.62] ng/ml) compared to patients with a favorable course (3.42 [1.92-5.42] ng/ml; p<0.001). However, the proportion of patients with H-FABP levels ≥ 6 ng/ml did not differ among patients with acute symptom onset and late presentation (p=0.104). Only tachycardia and elevation of H-FABP were associated with an increased risk of an adverse 30-day outcome both in patients with acute symptom onset (H-FABP: OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.4-24.5; p=0.016; tachycardia: 7.0 [1.4-36.0]; p=0.018) and late presentation (H-FABP: 9.3 [2.0-43.2]; p=0.004 and tachycardia: 12.3 [1.5-103.6]; p=0.021). The prognostic value could further be improved by the use of a simple H-FABP-based clinical prediction score. Our findings indicate that H-FABP is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of normotensive patients with PE regardless of symptom duration prior to diagnosis. © 2013.

THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. These approaches are less well-suited, however, to the challenges of global toxicity prediction, i.e., to predicting the potential toxicity of structurally diverse chemicals across a wide range of end points of regulatory and pharmaceutical concern. New approaches that have the potential to significantly improve capabilities in predictive toxicology are elaborating the “activity” portion of the SAR paradigm. Recent advances in two areas of endeavor are particularly promising. Toxicity data informatics relies on standardized data schema, developed for particular areas of toxicological study, to facilitate data integration and enable relational exploration and mining of data across both historical and new areas of toxicological investigation. Bioassay profiling refers to large-scale high-throughput screening approaches that use chemicals as probes to broadly characterize biological response space, extending the concept of chemical “properties” to the biological activity domain. The effective capture and representation of legacy and new toxicity data into mineable form and the large-scale generation of new bioassay data in relation to chemical toxicity, both employing chemical stru

Future Time Perspective and Awareness of Age-Related Change: Examining their Role in Predicting Psychological Well-Being

PubMed Central

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-01-01

This study examined how two distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime – future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC) – are associated with one another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the U.S. and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40–98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. PMID:27243764

Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

PubMed

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-09-01

This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Total Breast-Feeding Duration and Dental Caries in Healthy Urban Children.

PubMed

Wong, Peter D; Birken, Catherine S; Parkin, Patricia C; Venu, Isvarya; Chen, Yang; Schroth, Robert J; Maguire, Jonathon L

2017-04-01

To determine if there is an association between longer breast-feeding duration and dental caries in healthy urban children. We conducted a cross-sectional study of urban children aged 1 to 6 years recruited through The Applied Research Group for Kids (TARGet Kids!) practice-based research network between September 2011 and August 2013. The main outcome measure was parental report of dental caries. The adjusted predicted probability of dental caries was 7%, 8%, 11%, and 16% with total duration of breast-feeding duration of 12, 18, 24, and 36 months, respectively. In the adjusted logistic regression analyses, relative to breast-feeding 0 to 5 months, the odds of dental caries with total breast-feeding duration >24 months was 2.75 (95% confidence interval 1.61-4.72). Among healthy urban children, longer breast-feeding duration was associated with higher odds of dental caries. These findings support heightened awareness and enhanced anticipatory guidance for preventive dental care, particularly among children who breast-feed beyond 2 years of age. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rethinking non-inferiority: a practical trial design for optimising treatment duration.

PubMed

Quartagno, Matteo; Walker, A Sarah; Carpenter, James R; Phillips, Patrick Pj; Parmar, Mahesh Kb

2018-06-01

Background Trials to identify the minimal effective treatment duration are needed in different therapeutic areas, including bacterial infections, tuberculosis and hepatitis C. However, standard non-inferiority designs have several limitations, including arbitrariness of non-inferiority margins, choice of research arms and very large sample sizes. Methods We recast the problem of finding an appropriate non-inferior treatment duration in terms of modelling the entire duration-response curve within a pre-specified range. We propose a multi-arm randomised trial design, allocating patients to different treatment durations. We use fractional polynomials and spline-based methods to flexibly model the duration-response curve. We call this a 'Durations design'. We compare different methods in terms of a scaled version of the area between true and estimated prediction curves. We evaluate sensitivity to key design parameters, including sample size, number and position of arms. Results A total sample size of ~ 500 patients divided into a moderate number of equidistant arms (5-7) is sufficient to estimate the duration-response curve within a 5% error margin in 95% of the simulations. Fractional polynomials provide similar or better results than spline-based methods in most scenarios. Conclusion Our proposed practical randomised trial 'Durations design' shows promising performance in the estimation of the duration-response curve; subject to a pending careful investigation of its inferential properties, it provides a potential alternative to standard non-inferiority designs, avoiding many of their limitations, and yet being fairly robust to different possible duration-response curves. The trial outcome is the whole duration-response curve, which may be used by clinicians and policymakers to make informed decisions, facilitating a move away from a forced binary hypothesis testing paradigm.

Mortality associated with sleep duration and insomnia.

PubMed

Kripke, Daniel F; Garfinkel, Lawrence; Wingard, Deborah L; Klauber, Melville R; Marler, Matthew R

2002-02-01

Patients often complain about insufficient sleep or chronic insomnia in the belief that they need 8 hours of sleep. Treatment strategies may be guided by what sleep durations predict optimal survival and whether insomnia might signal mortality risks. In 1982, the Cancer Prevention Study II of the American Cancer Society asked participants about their sleep duration and frequency of insomnia. Cox proportional hazards survival models were computed to determine whether sleep duration or frequency of insomnia was associated with excess mortality up to 1988, controlling simultaneously for demographics, habits, health factors, and use of various medications. Participants were more than 1.1 million men and women from 30 to 102 years of age. The best survival was found among those who slept 7 hours per night. Participants who reported sleeping 8 hours or more experienced significantly increased mortality hazard, as did those who slept 6 hours or less. The increased risk exceeded 15% for those reporting more than 8.5 hours sleep or less than 3.5 or 4.5 hours. In contrast, reports of "insomnia" were not associated with excess mortality hazard. As previously described, prescription sleeping pill use was associated with significantly increased mortality after control for reported sleep durations and insomnia. Patients can be reassured that short sleep and insomnia seem associated with little risk distinct from comorbidities. Slight risks associated with 8 or more hours of sleep and sleeping pill use need further study. Causality is unproven.

Model Predictive Control-based gait pattern generation for wearable exoskeletons.

PubMed

Wang, Letian; van Asseldonk, Edwin H F; van der Kooij, Herman

2011-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for controlling wearable exoskeletons that do not need predefined joint trajectories. Instead, it only needs basic gait descriptors such as step length, swing duration, and walking speed. End point Model Predictive Control (MPC) is used to generate the online joint trajectories based on these gait parameters. Real-time ability and control performance of the method during the swing phase of gait cycle is studied in this paper. Experiments are performed by helping a human subject swing his leg with different patterns in the LOPES gait trainer. Results show that the method is able to assist subjects to make steps with different step length and step duration without predefined joint trajectories and is fast enough for real-time implementation. Future study of the method will focus on controlling the exoskeletons in the entire gait cycle. © 2011 IEEE

Developing neuronal networks: Self-organized criticality predicts the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

2013-01-01

Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and ``aging'' process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

Evolution of antibiotic resistance is linked to any genetic mechanism affecting bacterial duration of carriage

PubMed Central

Lehtinen, Sonja; Blanquart, François; Croucher, Nicholas J.; Turner, Paul; Lipsitch, Marc; Fraser, Christophe

2017-01-01

Understanding how changes in antibiotic consumption affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens is important for public health. In a number of bacterial species, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, the prevalence of resistance has remained relatively stable despite prolonged selection pressure from antibiotics. The evolutionary processes allowing the robust coexistence of antibiotic sensitive and resistant strains are not fully understood. While allelic diversity can be maintained at a locus by direct balancing selection, there is no evidence for such selection acting in the case of resistance. In this work, we propose a mechanism for maintaining coexistence at the resistance locus: linkage to a second locus that is under balancing selection and that modulates the fitness effect of resistance. We show that duration of carriage plays such a role, with long duration of carriage increasing the fitness advantage gained from resistance. We therefore predict that resistance will be more common in strains with a long duration of carriage and that mechanisms maintaining diversity in duration of carriage will also maintain diversity in antibiotic resistance. We test these predictions in S. pneumoniae and find that the duration of carriage of a serotype is indeed positively correlated with the prevalence of resistance in that serotype. These findings suggest heterogeneity in duration of carriage is a partial explanation for the coexistence of sensitive and resistant strains and that factors determining bacterial duration of carriage will also affect the prevalence of resistance. PMID:28096340

Countdown to the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng-Campbell, Meg; Scott, Ryan T.; Torres, Samantha; Murray, Matthew; Moyer, Eric

2017-01-01

At the NASA Ames Research Center in California, the next generation of space biologists are working to understand the effects of long duration space flight on model organisms, and are developing ways to protect the health of future astronauts.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Estimated flow-duration curves for selected ungaged sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Studley, S.E.

2001-01-01

). The method did not adequately estimate the flow-duration curves for two sites in the western one-third of the State because of substantial changes in farming practices (terracing and intensive ground-water withdrawal) that were not accounted for in the two previous studies (Furness, 1959; Jordan, 1983). For these two sites, there was enough historic, continuous-streamflow record available to perform record-extension techniques correlated to their respective index stations for the development of the estimated flow-duration curves. The estimated flow-duration curves at the ungaged sites can be used for projecting future flow frequencies for assessment of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) or other water-quality constituents, water-availability studies, and for basin-characteristic studies.

Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

PubMed

Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

2017-04-15

Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Soil Frost and its Response to Climate Change in Northeastern U.S. Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicklein, H. F.; Ollinger, S. V.; Campbell, J.; Frolking, S.

2007-12-01

Depth and duration of seasonal snow cover has important effects on temperate forest ecosystems. In the northeastern U.S., recent predictions are that climate warming over the coming century will cause an increase in soil freezing as soils lose the insulation of continuous wintertime snow cover. These studies have also linked soil freezing to elevated nitrate export from soils and streams. In the present study, we used a physically based energy and water exchange model, SHAW (Simultaneous Heat and Water), to predict soil frost and snowpack dynamics at three forested sites in New England: Hubbard Brook (NH), Harvard Forest (MA), and Howland Forest (ME). Results indicate an inverse relationship across all three sites between the depth and duration of the snowpack and soil frost. Simulations were conducted for all three sites with historical weather data for the past 20-40 years, and for future projections (2000-2100) using two different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi and BI) derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations. Under both scenarios and at all three sites, SHAW predicted that both the amount of soil frost and the number of extreme soil freezing events will decrease during the 2000-2100 period. In addition, there was no relationship between predicted soil frost, 1966-2000, and observed stream nitrate concentration at Hubbard Brook. These results run counter to existing theories regarding both the impacts of soil frost and the changes that are expected to occur into the future. There was, however, a positive correlation between predicted soil frost and growing season CO2 uptake at Harvard Forest over the 1992-2002 period. This suggests that soil freezing does play an important role in forest biogeochemistry, albeit a different role than that which has been discussed in the literature.

Metabolic syndrome and sleep duration in police officers.

PubMed

McCanlies, Erin C; Slaven, James E; Smith, Lindsay M; Andrew, Michael E; Charles, Luenda E; Burchfiel, Cecil M; Violanti, John M

2012-01-01

To examine associations for sleep quality and quantity with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its five components in police officers. The study population consisted of 98 randomly selected officers (39 women and 59 men) for whom MS and sleep data were available. Sleep duration (categorized as short < 6 hours, long ≥ 6 hours) for the past week and quality of sleep were collected by interviewer-administered questionnaires. MS was assessed using standard criteria. Generalized linear models were used to assess associations between sleep duration or sleep quality and MS, and the mean number of MS components. Metabolic syndrome was present in 22.0% and 2.6% of the male and female officers, respectively. Women with short sleep had a significantly higher mean number of MS components (mean=1.43) than those with longer sleep (mean=0.81, p=0.0316). Officers who stopped breathing during the night had more MS components (mean=2.43) compared to those who did not (mean =1.13, p=0.0206). Sleep duration and quality were associated with the mean number of MS components, particularly in women. Future research should examine these associations prospectively, in a larger cohort, exploring possible gender differences.

Regionally Adaptable Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) from Empirical Models of Fourier and Duration of Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Sanjay; Scherbaum, Frank; Kuehn, Nicolas; Stafford, Peter; Edwards, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The current practice of deriving empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) involves using ground motions recorded at multiple sites. However, in applications like site-specific (e.g., critical facility) hazard ground motions obtained from the GMPEs are need to be adjusted/corrected to a particular site/site-condition under investigation. This study presents a complete framework for developing a response spectral GMPE, within which the issue of adjustment of ground motions is addressed in a manner consistent with the linear system framework. The present approach is a two-step process in which the first step consists of deriving two separate empirical models, one for Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and the other for a random vibration theory (RVT) optimized duration (Drvto) of ground motion. In the second step the two models are combined within the RVT framework to obtain full response spectral amplitudes. Additionally, the framework also involves a stochastic model based extrapolation of individual Fourier spectra to extend the useable frequency limit of the empirically derived FAS model. The stochastic model parameters were determined by inverting the Fourier spectral data using an approach similar to the one as described in Edwards and Faeh (2013). Comparison of median predicted response spectra from present approach with those from other regional GMPEs indicates that the present approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

Speaker-Sex Discrimination for Voiced and Whispered Vowels at Short Durations.

PubMed

Smith, David R R

2016-01-01

Whispered vowels, produced with no vocal fold vibration, lack the periodic temporal fine structure which in voiced vowels underlies the perceptual attribute of pitch (a salient auditory cue to speaker sex). Voiced vowels possess no temporal fine structure at very short durations (below two glottal cycles). The prediction was that speaker-sex discrimination performance for whispered and voiced vowels would be similar for very short durations but, as stimulus duration increases, voiced vowel performance would improve relative to whispered vowel performance as pitch information becomes available. This pattern of results was shown for women's but not for men's voices. A whispered vowel needs to have a duration three times longer than a voiced vowel before listeners can reliably tell whether it's spoken by a man or woman (∼30 ms vs. ∼10 ms). Listeners were half as sensitive to information about speaker-sex when it is carried by whispered compared with voiced vowels.

Speaker-Sex Discrimination for Voiced and Whispered Vowels at Short Durations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Whispered vowels, produced with no vocal fold vibration, lack the periodic temporal fine structure which in voiced vowels underlies the perceptual attribute of pitch (a salient auditory cue to speaker sex). Voiced vowels possess no temporal fine structure at very short durations (below two glottal cycles). The prediction was that speaker-sex discrimination performance for whispered and voiced vowels would be similar for very short durations but, as stimulus duration increases, voiced vowel performance would improve relative to whispered vowel performance as pitch information becomes available. This pattern of results was shown for women’s but not for men’s voices. A whispered vowel needs to have a duration three times longer than a voiced vowel before listeners can reliably tell whether it’s spoken by a man or woman (∼30 ms vs. ∼10 ms). Listeners were half as sensitive to information about speaker-sex when it is carried by whispered compared with voiced vowels. PMID:27757218

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI

Reliability of reported breastfeeding duration among reproductive-aged women from Mexico

PubMed Central

Cupul-Uicab, Lea A.; Gladen, Beth C.; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Longnecker, Matthew P.

2010-01-01

Breastfed children have lower risk of infectious diseases, post-neonatal mortality and chronic diseases later in life. Because epidemiologic studies usually rely on reported history of previous breastfeeding, data on the accuracy and precision of recalled histories allow improved interpretation of the epidemiologic findings. We evaluated the reliability of two reported breastfeeding durations in 567 reproductive-aged women from Mexico using information obtained from nearly identical sets of questions applied at different times after weaning. We compared differences between reports, and examined the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for any and for exclusive breastfeeding (EBF). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the determinants of poor recall (difference between reports of >20%). The reliability of duration of any breastfeeding was high (ICC 0.94). Overall, differences between reports of duration were usually <1 month, and for 385/567, the difference was ≤0.5 months. Predictors of poorer recall were having ≥4 children, and time between reports of >2 months. The only predictor of better recall was greater age of the baby at weaning. The reliability of EBF duration was lower (ICC 0.49). In this population with a relatively long duration of breastfeeding, reliability of any breast-feeding duration was high. Age, education and previous breastfeeding were not important predictors of recall, in contrast to findings in earlier studies. Consistent with previous reports, however, parity and length of recall were associated with poorer recall of duration of any breastfeeding. Future studies that use reported breastfeeding duration may want to consider the effect of these variables on recall. PMID:19292747

Maternal recall of breastfeeding duration twenty years after delivery.

PubMed

Natland, Siv Tone; Andersen, Lene Frost; Nilsen, Tom Ivar Lund; Forsmo, Siri; Jacobsen, Geir W

2012-11-23

Studies on the health benefits from breastfeeding often rely on maternal recall of breastfeeding. Although short-term maternal recall has been found to be quite accurate, less is known about long-term accuracy. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of long-term maternal recall of breastfeeding duration. In a prospective study of pregnancy and birth outcome, detailed information on breastfeeding during the child's first year of life was collected from a cohort of Norwegian women who gave birth in 1986-88. Among 374 of the participants, data on breastfeeding initiation and duration were compared to recalled data obtained from mailed questionnaires some 20 years later. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Bland-Altman plot, and Kappa statistics were used to assess the agreement between the two sources of data. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of misreporting breastfeeding duration by more than one month. Recorded and recalled breastfeeding duration were strongly correlated (ICC=0.82, p < 0.001). Nearly two thirds of women recalled their breastfeeding to within one month. Recall data showed a modest median overestimation of about 2 weeks. There were no apparent systematic discrepancies between the two sources of information, but recall error was predicted by the age when infants were introduced to another kind of milk. Across categories of breastfeeding, the overall weighted Kappa statistic showed an almost perfect agreement (κ = 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82 - 0.88). Breastfeeding duration was recalled quite accurately 20 years after mothers gave birth in a population where breastfeeding is common and its duration long.

Sleep Duration and Body Mass Index in Twins: A Gene-Environment Interaction

PubMed Central

Watson, Nathaniel F.; Harden, Kathryn Paige; Buchwald, Dedra; Vitiello, Michael V.; Pack, Allan I.; Weigle, David S.; Goldberg, Jack

2012-01-01

Study Objectives: To examine whether sleep duration modifies genetic and environmental influences on body mass index (BMI). Design: Genotype-environment interaction twin study. Setting: University of Washington Twin Registry. Patients or Participants: A population-based sample of US twins (1,088 pairs, 604 monozygotic, 484 dizygotic; 66% female; mean age = 36.6 yr, standard deviation (SD) = 15.9 yr). Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Participants self-reported information on height, weight, and sleep. Mean BMI was calculated as 25.3 kg/m2 (SD = 5.4) and mean habitual sleep duration was 7.2 hr/night (SD = 1.2). Data were analyzed using biometric genetic interaction models. Overall the heritability of sleep duration was 34%. Longer sleep duration was associated with decreased BMI (P < 0.05). The heritability of BMI when sleep duration was < 7 hr (h2 = 70%) was more than twice as large as the heritability of BMI when sleep duration was ≥ 9 hr (h2 = 32%); this interaction was significant (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Shorter sleep duration is associated with increased BMI and increased genetic influences on BMI, suggesting that shorter sleep duration increases expression of genetic risks for high body weight. At the same time, longer sleep duration may suppress genetic influences on body weight. Future research aiming to identify specific genotypes for BMI may benefit by considering the moderating role of sleep duration. Citation: Watson NF; Harden KP; Buchwald D; Vitiello MV; Pack AI; Weigle DS; Goldberg J. Sleep duration and body mass index in twins: a gene-environment interaction. SLEEP 2012;35(5):597-603. PMID:22547885

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

PubMed

Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

2015-08-01

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future leisure environments

Treesearch

Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

1974-01-01

As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Particle Fluence for Mission Durations and Exposure Assessment in Consideration of Integral Proton Fluence at High Energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. Y.; Tylka, A. J.; Dietrich, W. F.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2012-12-01

The occasional occurrence of solar particle events (SPEs) with large amounts of energy is non-predictable, while the expected frequency is strongly influenced by solar cycle activity. The potential for exposure to large SPEs with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the Moon, near Earth object, and Mars surface for future long duration space missions. We estimated the propensity for SPE occurrence with large proton fluence as a function of time within a typical future solar cycle from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, Φ30. The database includes a comprehensive collection of historical data set for the past 5 solar cycles. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs, total fluence distributions of Φ30, Φ60, and Φ100 were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile for each mission durations. In addition to the total particle intensity of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the radiation cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. For radiation exposure assessments of major SPEs, we used the spectral functional form of a double power law in rigidity (the so-called Band function), which have provided a satisfactory representation of the combined satellite and neutron monitor data from ~10 MeV to ~10 GeV. The dependencies of exposure risk were evaluated as a function of proton fluence at a given energy threshold of 30, 60, and 100 MeV, and overall risk prediction was improved as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. The results can be applied to the development of approaches of improved radiation protection for astronauts, as well as the optimization of mission planning and shielding for future space missions.

Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

Laser-fired contact formation on metallized and passivated silicon wafers under short pulse durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Ashwin S.

The objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes governing laser-fired contact (LFC) formation under microsecond pulse durations. Primary emphasis is placed on understanding how processing parameters influence contact morphology, passivation layer quality, alloying of Al and Si, and contact resistance. In addition, the research seeks to develop a quantitative method to accurately predict the contact geometry, thermal cycles, heat and mass transfer phenomena, and the influence of contact pitch distance on substrate temperatures in order to improve the physical understanding of the underlying processes. Finally, the work seeks to predict how geometry for LFCs produced with microsecond pulses will influence fabrication and performance factors, such as the rear side contacting scheme, rear surface series resistance and effective rear surface recombination rates. The characterization of LFC cross-sections reveals that the use of microsecond pulse durations results in the formation of three-dimensional hemispherical or half-ellipsoidal contact geometries. The LFC is heavily alloyed with Al and Si and is composed of a two-phase Al-Si microstructure that grows from the Si wafer during resolidification. As a result of forming a large three-dimensional contact geometry, the total contact resistance is governed by the interfacial contact area between the LFC and the wafer rather than the planar contact area at the original Al-Si interface within an opening in the passivation layer. By forming three-dimensional LFCs, the total contact resistance is significantly reduced in comparison to that predicted for planar contacts. In addition, despite the high energy densities associated with microsecond pulse durations, the passivation layer is well preserved outside of the immediate contact region. Therefore, the use of microsecond pulse durations can be used to improve device performance by leading to lower total contact resistances

Duration of diabetes and risk of ischemic stroke: the Northern Manhattan Study.

PubMed

Banerjee, Chirantan; Moon, Yeseon P; Paik, Myunghee C; Rundek, Tatjana; Mora-McLaughlin, Consuelo; Vieira, Julio R; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2012-05-01

Diabetes increases stroke risk, but whether diabetes status immediately before stroke improves prediction and whether duration is important are less clear. We hypothesized that diabetes duration independently predicts ischemic stroke. Among 3298 stroke-free participants in the Northern Manhattan Study, baseline diabetes and age at diagnosis were determined. Incident diabetes was assessed annually (median, 9 years). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI for incident ischemic stroke using baseline diabetes, diabetes as a time-dependent covariate, and duration of diabetes as a time-varying covariate; models were adjusted for demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Mean age was 69 ± 10 years (52% Hispanic, 21% white, and 24% black); 22% had diabetes at baseline and 10% had development of diabetes. There were 244 ischemic strokes, and both baseline diabetes (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.9-3.3) and diabetes considered as a time-dependent covariate (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.2) were similarly associated with stroke risk. Duration of diabetes was associated with ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 1.03 per year with diabetes; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04). Compared to nondiabetic participants, those with diabetes for 0 to 5 years (adjusted HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7), 5 to 10 years (adjusted HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0), and ≥ 10 years (adjusted HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.4-4.5) were at increased risk. Duration of diabetes is independently associated with ischemic stroke risk adjusting for risk factors. The risk increases 3% each year, and triples with diabetes ≥ 10 years.

Estimating duration of central venous catheter at time of insertion: Clinician judgment and clinical predictors.

PubMed

Holmberg, Mathias J; Andersen, Lars W; Graver, Amanda; Wright, Sharon B; Yassa, David; Howell, Michael D; Donnino, Michael W; Cocchi, Michael N

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether clinicians can estimate the length of time a central venous catheter (CVC) will remain in place and to identify variables that may predict CVC duration. We conducted a prospective study of patients admitted to the intensive care unit over a 1-year period. Clinicians estimated the anticipated CVC duration at time of insertion. We collected demographics, medical history, type of intensive care unit, anatomical site of CVC placement, vital signs, laboratory values, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, mechanical ventilation, and use of vasopressors. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation between estimated and actual CVC time. We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of long duration (>5 days). We enrolled 200 patients; median age was 65 years (quartiles 52, 75); 91 (46%) were female; and mortality was 24%. Correlation between estimated and actual CVC time was low (r=0.26; r2=0.07; P<.001). Mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.97; P=.009) at time of insertion and a medical history of cancer (odds ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.75; P=.007) were significantly associated with long duration. Our results suggest a low correlation between clinician prediction and actual CVC duration. We did not find any strong predictors of long CVC duration identifiable at the time of insertion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anti-MCV antibodies predict radiographic progression in Greek patients with very early (<3 months duration) rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Barouta, Georgia; Katsiari, Christina G; Alexiou, Ioannis; Liaskos, Christos; Varna, Areti; Bogdanos, Dimitrios P; Germenis, Anastasios E; Sakkas, Lazaros I

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess the diagnostic and prognostic value of anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (MCV) antibodies in very early rheumatoid arthritis (VERA) and in established rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Seventy-one patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA) of <3 months duration, 141 with established RA, 53 with other rheumatic diseases, and 40 healthy individuals were included in the study. Anti-MCV, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies, and rheumatoid factor (RF) were determined and hand radiographs were recorded. Patients were assessed prospectively for 2 years, and hand radiographs were repeated. Diagnostic performance of anti-MCV was studied with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. Forty-six percent of UA patients progressed to RA at 2 years. In VERA patients, sensitivity of anti-MCV was 52 %, compared to 44 % of anti-CCP and 37 % of RF, while specificity was 91 %, compared to 91 % of RF and 84 % of anti-CCP. Anti-MCV were detected in 25 % of VERA patients negative for both anti-CCP and RF. In established RA, anti-MCV did not sustain its diagnostic performance. By multivariable analysis, anti-MCV, but not anti-CCP or RF, showed significant correlation with radiographic progression in VERA patients. In established RA, anti-MCV, anti-CCP, and RF were associated with active disease (p ≤ 0.03) and joint damage (p ≤ 0.004). By multivariate analysis, the strongest factors for radiographic damage were disease duration (p = 0.000), HAQ score (p = 0.000), and RF (p = 0.002). In conclusion, in patients with very early UA, anti-MCV predict both progression to RA and radiological damage, and therefore, anti-MCV antibody testing may be useful in every day practice.

The Role of Social-Cognitive and Emotional Factors on Exclusive Breastfeeding Duration.

PubMed

Shepherd, Lee; Walbey, Cherokee; Lovell, Brian

2017-08-01

Previous research has suggested that exclusive breastfeeding is likely to be predicted by social-cognitive variables and fear. However, there is little research assessing the role of regret and self-conscious emotions (e.g., pride and guilt) in promoting exclusive breastfeeding. Research aim: The primary aim of this research was to determine whether social-cognitive variables, fear, regret, and self-conscious emotions predict exclusive breastfeeding duration. The secondary aim of this research was to assess whether these factors predict infant-feeding choice (i.e., exclusively breastfed, combination fed, or generally formula fed). In this nonexperimental one-group self-report survey, 375 mothers rated social-cognitive variables toward breastfeeding (attitude, subjective norm, perceived control, and self-efficacy), their fear toward inadequate nutrition from breastfeeding and breastfeeding damaging their physical appearance, and the extent to which mothers may feel pride toward breastfeeding and negative self-conscious emotions (guilt and shame) and regret for not breastfeeding their infant. Exclusive breastfeeding duration was positively predicted by self-efficacy, pride, and regret but negatively predicted by the fear toward inadequate nutrition. We also found that in contrast with exclusive breastfeeding, generally formula feeding an infant was associated with lower self-efficacy, pride, and regret but higher subjective norm and fear toward inadequate nutrition through breastfeeding. The authors argue that it is important to consider the role of self-conscious emotions and regret on exclusive breastfeeding.

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future

Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

PubMed

Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

2013-01-01

Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

Eying the future: Eye movement in past and future thinking.

PubMed

El Haj, Mohamad; Lenoble, Quentin

2017-06-07

We investigated eye movement during past and future thinking. Participants were invited to retrieve past events and to imagine future events while their scan path was recorded by an eye-tracker. Past thinking triggered more fixation (p < .05), and saccade counts (p < .05) than future thinking. Past and future thinking triggered a similar duration of fixations and saccades, as well as a similar amplitude of saccades. Interestingly, participants rated past thinking as more vivid than future thinking (p < .01). Therefore, the vividness of past thinking seems to be accompanied by an increased number of fixations and saccades. Fixations and saccades in past thinking can be interpreted as an attempt by the visual system to find (through saccades) and activate (through fixations) stored memory representations. The same interpretation can be applied to future thinking as this ability requires activation of past experiences. However, future thinking triggers fewer fixations and saccades than past thinking: this may be due to its decreased demand on visual imagery, but could also be related to a potentially deleterious effect of eye movements on spatial imagery required for future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2018-02-02

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Sleep Duration and Quality in Pregnant Women: A Cross-Sectional Survey in China.

PubMed

Xu, Xianglong; Liu, Dengyuan; Zhang, Zhangyi; Sharma, Manoj; Zhao, Yong

2017-07-20

Objectives: Good maternal health and fetal development require sufficient and good quality of sleep during pregnancy. This study investigated sleep duration and quality in pregnant women, assessing factors with possibly influence on sleep. Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted on pregnant women between June and August in 2015 in 16 hospitals in five provinces in China. A total of 2345 pregnant women aged 18 years and older were surveyed. Insufficient sleeping duration was defined as sleeping of less than 7 h per day. Excessive sleep duration was defined as sleeping of more than 9 h per day. Results: A total of 561 (23.9%) participants reported insufficient sleeping duration, whereas 485 (20.9%) claimed excessive sleep duration. A total of 358 (15.2%) of pregnant women reported problems regarding sleep quality. Compared to pregnant women with sufficient sleeping duration, those with insufficient sleeping duration were prone to have poor sleep quality, whereas those with excessive sleeping duration featured low possibility of poor sleep quality. High-risk groups of insufficient sleep duration include women of Han nationality, with siblings, in their first trimester of pregnancy, receiving care in low-capacity/quality hospital settings, and with daily or 1-3 days of secondhand smoke exposure. High-risk groups of excessive sleep duration include women living in rural areas, unemployed, in their third trimester of pregnancy, and receiving care in medium-capacity/quality hospital settings. High-risk groups of poor sleep quality include women of non-Han nationality, low income level, in their third trimester of pregnancy, and with insufficient sleep duration. Conclusions: Insufficient/excessive sleep duration and poor sleep quality commonly occur during pregnancy in China. Findings provide a better understanding of the influencing factors of insufficient/excessive sleep duration and poor quality of sleep. These findings have some implications for future

Sleep Duration and Quality in Pregnant Women: A Cross-Sectional Survey in China

PubMed Central

Liu, Dengyuan; Zhang, Zhangyi; Zhao, Yong

2017-01-01

Objectives: Good maternal health and fetal development require sufficient and good quality of sleep during pregnancy. This study investigated sleep duration and quality in pregnant women, assessing factors with possibly influence on sleep. Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted on pregnant women between June and August in 2015 in 16 hospitals in five provinces in China. A total of 2345 pregnant women aged 18 years and older were surveyed. Insufficient sleeping duration was defined as sleeping of less than 7 h per day. Excessive sleep duration was defined as sleeping of more than 9 h per day. Results: A total of 561 (23.9%) participants reported insufficient sleeping duration, whereas 485 (20.9%) claimed excessive sleep duration. A total of 358 (15.2%) of pregnant women reported problems regarding sleep quality. Compared to pregnant women with sufficient sleeping duration, those with insufficient sleeping duration were prone to have poor sleep quality, whereas those with excessive sleeping duration featured low possibility of poor sleep quality. High-risk groups of insufficient sleep duration include women of Han nationality, with siblings, in their first trimester of pregnancy, receiving care in low-capacity/quality hospital settings, and with daily or 1–3 days of secondhand smoke exposure. High-risk groups of excessive sleep duration include women living in rural areas, unemployed, in their third trimester of pregnancy, and receiving care in medium-capacity/quality hospital settings. High-risk groups of poor sleep quality include women of non-Han nationality, low income level, in their third trimester of pregnancy, and with insufficient sleep duration. Conclusions: Insufficient/excessive sleep duration and poor sleep quality commonly occur during pregnancy in China. Findings provide a better understanding of the influencing factors of insufficient/excessive sleep duration and poor quality of sleep. These findings have some implications for future

Modeling microbial communities: current, developing, and future technologies for predicting microbial community interaction.

PubMed

Larsen, Peter; Hamada, Yuki; Gilbert, Jack

2012-07-31

Never has there been a greater opportunity for investigating microbial communities. Not only are the profound effects of microbial ecology on every aspect of Earth's geochemical cycles beginning to be understood, but also the analytical and computational tools for investigating microbial Earth are undergoing a rapid revolution. This environmental microbial interactome, the system of interactions between the microbiome and the environment, has shaped the planet's past and will undoubtedly continue to do so in the future. We review recent approaches for modeling microbial community structures and the interactions of microbial populations with their environments. Different modeling approaches consider the environmental microbial interactome from different aspects, and each provides insights to different facets of microbial ecology. We discuss the challenges and opportunities for the future of microbial modeling and describe recent advances in microbial community modeling that are extending current descriptive technologies into a predictive science. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Duration in Poverty-Related Programs and Number of Child Maltreatment Reports.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunil; Drake, Brett

2017-02-01

This study examined the relationship of a family's duration in poverty-related programs (i.e., Aid to Families with Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and Medicaid) to the subject child's number of maltreatment reports while considering race and baseline neighborhood poverty. Children from a large Midwestern metropolitan area were followed through a linked cross-sector administrative database from birth to age 15. Generalized multilevel models were employed to account for the multilevel structure of the data (i.e., nesting of families within neighborhoods). The data showed a unique and significant contribution of duration in poverty-related programs to the number of maltreatment reports. The predicted number of maltreatment reports increased by between 2.5 and 3.7 times, as duration in poverty-related programs increased from 0 to 9 years. This relationship was consistent between Whites and non-Whites (over 98% Black), but non-Whites showed a significantly lower number of total maltreatment reports while controlling for duration in poverty-related programs. We were unable to find a significant association between child maltreatment reports and baseline neighborhood poverty.

Future-oriented emotions in the prediction of binge-drinking intention and expectation: the role of anticipated and anticipatory emotions.

PubMed

Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

2012-06-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) offers a parsimonious explanation of purposive behavior, but in the study of healthy and risk behaviors its sufficiency may be questioned. Working with binge-drinking, a very common risk behavior in Spanish undergraduate students, we used two strategies for improving predictions from TPB: using behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) as proximal antecedents of behaviors and adding as new predictors two future-oriented emotions (anticipated and anticipatory). Hierarchical regression analyses show that while anticipated emotions improved TPB explanations of BI, anticipatory emotions improved the explanations of BE. The present results show the influence of future emotions in the prediction of behavioral intention and behavioral expectation. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Intercultural crew issues in long-duration spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraft, Norbert O.; Lyons, Terence J.; Binder, Heidi

2003-01-01

Before long-duration flights with international crews can be safely undertaken, potential interpersonal difficulties will need to be addressed. Crew performance breakdown has been recognized by the American Institute of Medicine, in scientific literature, and in popular culture. However, few studies of human interaction and performance in confined, isolated environments exist, and the data pertaining to those studies are mostly anecdotal. Many incidents involving crew interpersonal dynamics, those among flight crews, as well as between flight crews and ground controllers, are reported only in non-peer reviewed books and newspapers. Consequently, due to this lack of concrete knowledge, the selection of astronauts and cosmonauts has focused on individual rather than group selection. Additional selection criteria such as interpersonal and communication competence, along with intercultural training, will have a decisive impact on future mission success. Furthermore, industrial psychological research has demonstrated the ability to select a group based on compatibility. With all this in mind, it is essential to conduct further research on heterogeneous, multi-national crews including selection and training for long-duration space missions.

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Sakoda, Lori C; Henderson, Louise M; Caverly, Tanner J; Wernli, Karen J; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-12-01

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice. Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening. Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.

Sleep Duration in Relation to Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in American Adults.

PubMed

Bogdan, Alexander R; Reeves, Katherine W

2018-01-01

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental condition being diagnosed in increasing numbers. While the link between sleep and ADHD is of increasing interest, the relationship between sleep duration and ADHD remains largely uninvestigated in adult populations. We evaluated the association between self-reported sleep duration and ADHD in a cohort of American adults using data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012). Of the 30,858 participants eligible for our analyses, there were 1,122 cases of ADHD. Elevated and diminished sleep durations were both associated with increased odds of reporting ADHD (≤ 6 hr: OR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.19, 1.90; ≥ 9 hr: OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.26, 1.75) in fully adjusted models. Future prospective studies are necessary to further examine this association in adult patients.

Reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance predicts future falls in community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Carty, Christopher P; Cronin, Neil J; Nicholson, Deanne; Lichtwark, Glen A; Mills, Peter M; Kerr, Graham; Cresswell, Andrew G; Barrett, Rod S

2015-01-01

a fall occurs when an individual experiences a loss of balance from which they are unable to recover. Assessment of balance recovery ability in older adults may therefore help to identify individuals at risk of falls. The purpose of this 12-month prospective study was to assess whether the ability to recover from a forward loss of balance with a single step across a range of lean magnitudes was predictive of falls. two hundred and one community-dwelling older adults, aged 65-90 years, underwent baseline testing of sensori-motor function and balance recovery ability followed by 12-month prospective falls evaluation. Balance recovery ability was defined by whether participants required either single or multiple steps to recover from forward loss of balance from three lean magnitudes, as well as the maximum lean magnitude participants could recover from with a single step. forty-four (22%) participants experienced one or more falls during the follow-up period. Maximal recoverable lean magnitude and use of multiple steps to recover at the 15% body weight (BW) and 25%BW lean magnitudes significantly predicted a future fall (odds ratios 1.08-1.26). The Physiological Profile Assessment, an established tool that assesses variety of sensori-motor aspects of falls risk, was also predictive of falls (Odds ratios 1.22 and 1.27, respectively), whereas age, sex, postural sway and timed up and go were not predictive. reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance and physiological profile assessment are independent predictors of a future fall in community-dwelling older adults. Exercise interventions designed to improve reactive stepping behaviour may protect against future falls. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long Duration Sorbent Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, David F.; Knox, James C.; Long, David A.; Miller, Lee; Cmaric, Gregory; Thomas, John

2016-01-01

The Long Duration Sorbent Testbed (LDST) is a flight experiment demonstration designed to expose current and future candidate carbon dioxide removal system sorbents to an actual crewed space cabin environment to assess and compare sorption working capacity degradation resulting from long term operation. An analysis of sorbent materials returned to Earth after approximately one year of operation in the International Space Station's (ISS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) indicated as much as a 70% loss of working capacity of the silica gel desiccant material at the extreme system inlet location, with a gradient of capacity loss down the bed. The primary science objective is to assess the degradation of potential sorbents for exploration class missions and ISS upgrades when operated in a true crewed space cabin environment. A secondary objective is to compare degradation of flight test to a ground test unit with contaminant dosing to determine applicability of ground testing.

Dependence of the duration of geomagnetic polarity reversals on site latitude.

PubMed

Clement, Bradford M

2004-04-08

An important constraint on the processes governing the geodynamo--the flow in the outer core responsible for generating Earth's magnetic field--is the duration of geomagnetic polarity reversals; that is, how long it takes for Earth's magnetic field to reverse. It is generally accepted that Earth's magnetic field strength drops to low levels during polarity reversals, and the field direction progresses through a 180 degrees change while the field is weak. The time it takes for this process to happen, however, remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from a few thousand up to 28,000 years. Here I present an analysis of the available sediment records of the four most recent polarity reversals. These records yield an average estimate of about 7,000 years for the time it takes for the directional change to occur. The variation about this mean duration is not random, but instead varies with site latitude, with shorter durations observed at low-latitude sites, and longer durations observed at mid- to high-latitude sites. Such variation of duration with site latitude is predicted by simple geometrical reversal models, in which non-dipole fields are allowed to persist while the axial dipole decays through zero and then builds in the opposite direction, and provides a constraint on numerical dynamo models.

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Ou, Mi-Lim

2004-01-01

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in ths direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Sleep duration and cardiometabolic risk: a review of the epidemiologic evidence.

PubMed

Knutson, Kristen L

2010-10-01

Laboratory studies have found that short-term sleep restriction is associated with impairments in glucose metabolism, appetite regulation and blood pressure regulation. This chapter reviews the epidemiologic evidence for an association between habitual sleep duration and quality and risk of cardiometabolic diseases including obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Multiple studies observed a cross-sectional association between short sleep duration (generally <6 h per night) and increased body mass index or obesity, prevalent diabetes and prevalent hypertension. Many studies also reported an association between self-reported long sleep duration (generally >8 h per night) and cardiometabolic disease. There have been a few prospective studies and several, but not all, have found an association between short sleep and incident diabetes, hypertension and markers of cardiovascular disease. Future prospective epidemiologic studies need to include objective measures of sleep, and intervention studies are needed in order to establish a causal link between impaired or insufficient sleep and cardiometabolic disease risk. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teamwork Training Needs Analysis for Long-Duration Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith-Jentsch, Kimberly A.; Sierra, Mary Jane

2016-01-01

The success of future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will be determined largely by the extent to which mission-critical personnel possess and effectively exercise essential teamwork competencies throughout the entire mission lifecycle (e.g., Galarza & Holland, 1999; Hysong, Galarza, & Holland, 2007; Noe, Dachner, Saxton, & Keeton, 2011). To ensure that such personnel develop and exercise these necessary teamwork competencies prior to and over the full course of future LDEMs, it is essential that a teamwork training curriculum be developed and put into place at NASA that is both 1) comprehensive, in that it targets all teamwork competencies critical for mission success and 2) structured around empirically-based best practices for enhancing teamwork training effectiveness. In response to this demand, the current teamwork-oriented training needs analysis (TNA) was initiated to 1) identify the teamwork training needs (i.e., essential teamwork-related competencies) of future LDEM crews, 2) identify critical gaps within NASA’s current and future teamwork training curriculum (i.e., gaps in the competencies targeted and in the training practices utilized) that threaten to impact the success of future LDEMs, and to 3) identify a broad set of practical nonprescriptive recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of NASA’s teamwork training curriculum in order to increase the probability of future LDEM success.

Europa's small impactor flux and seismic detection predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Daisuke; Teanby, Nicholas A.

2016-10-01

Europa is an attractive target for future lander missions due to its dynamic surface and potentially habitable sub-surface environment. Seismology has the potential to provide powerful new constraints on the internal structure using natural sources such as faults or meteorite impacts. Here we predict how many meteorite impacts are likely to be detected using a single seismic station on Europa to inform future mission planning efforts. To this end, we derive: (1) the current small impactor flux on Europa from Jupiter impact rate observations and models; (2) a crater diameter versus impactor energy scaling relation for icy moons by merging previous experiments and simulations; and (3) scaling relations for seismic signal amplitudes as a function of distance from the impact site for a given crater size, based on analogue explosive data obtained on Earth's ice sheets. Finally, seismic amplitudes are compared to predicted noise levels and seismometer performance to determine detection rates. We predict detection of 0.002-20 small local impacts per year based on P-waves travelling directly through the ice crust. Larger regional and global-scale impact events, detected through mantle-refracted waves, are predicted to be extremely rare (10-8-1 detections per year), so are unlikely to be detected by a short duration mission. Estimated ranges include uncertainties from internal seismic attenuation, impactor flux, and seismic amplitude scaling. Internal attenuation is the most significant unknown and produces extreme uncertainties in the mantle-refracted P-wave amplitudes. Our nominal best-guess attenuation model predicts 0.002-5 local direct P detections and 6 × 10-6-0.2 mantle-refracted detections per year. Given that a plausible Europa landed mission will only last around 30 days, we conclude that impacts should not be relied upon for a seismic exploration of Europa. For future seismic exploration, faulting due to stresses in the rigid outer ice shell is likely to be a

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Development Overview of the Revised NASA Ultra Long Duration Balloon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cathey, H. M.; Gregory, D; Young, L.; Pierce, D.

2006-01-01

The development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Ultra Long Duration Balloon (ULDB) has made significant strides in addressing the deployment issues experienced in the scaling up of the balloon structure. This paper concentrates on the super-pressure balloon developments that have been, and are currently being planned by the NASA Balloon Program Office at Goddard Space Flight Center s Wallops Flight Facility. The goal of the NASA ULDB development project is to attempt to extend the potential flight durations for large scientific balloon payloads. A summary of the February 2005 test flight from Ft. Sumner, New Mexico will be presented. This test flight spurred a number of investigations and advancements for this project. The development path has pursued some new approaches in the design, analysis, and testing of the balloons. New issues have been ideEti6ed throu& both analysis md testing. These have been addressed in the design stage before the next balloon construction was begun. This paper will give an overview of the recent history for this effort and the development approach pursued for ULDB. A description of the balloon design, including the modifications made as a result of the lessons learned, will be presented. Areas to be presented include the design approach, deployment issues that have been encountered and the proposed solutions, ground testing, photogrammetry, and an analysis overview. Test flight planning and considerations will be presented including test flight safety. An extended duration test flight of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Ultra Long Duration Balloon is planned for the May/June 2006 time frame. This flight is expected to fly from Sweden to either Canada or Alaska. Preliminary results of this flight will be presented as available. Future plans for both ground testing and additional test flights will also be presented. Goals of the future test flights, which are staged in increments of

Association between duration of playing video games and bone mineral density in Chinese adolescents.

PubMed

Shao, Haiyu; Xu, Shaonan; Zhang, Jun; Zheng, Jiayin; Chen, Jinping; Huang, Yazeng; Ru, Bin; Jin, Yongming; Zhang, Qi; Ying, Qifeng

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the association between duration of playing video games and bone mineral density (BMD) in Chinese adolescents. Three hundred eighty-four Chinese adolescents aged 14-18 yr (148 males and 236 females) were analyzed. Anthropometric measurements were obtained using standard procedures. Total body and regional BMD were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Duration of playing video games, defined as hours per day, was measured by a self-report questionnaire. We examined the association between duration of playing video games and BMD using multiple linear regression analysis. After adjustment for age, sex, pubertal stage, parental education, body mass index, adolescents with longer video game duration were more likely to have lower legs, trunk, pelvic, spine, and total BMD (p < 0.05). We concluded that duration of video game was negatively associated with BMD in Chinese adolescents. These findings provide support for reducing duration of playing video games as a possible means to increase BMD in adolescents. Future research is needed to elucidate the underlined mechanisms linking playing video games and osteoporosis. Copyright © 2015 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reevaluation of the role of duration of morning stiffness in the assessment of rheumatoid arthritis activity.

PubMed

Khan, Nasim A; Yazici, Yusuf; Calvo-Alen, Jaime; Dadoniene, Jolanta; Gossec, Laure; Hansen, Troels M; Huisman, Margriet; Kallikorm, Riina; Muller, Raili; Liveborn, Margareth; Oding, Rolf; Luchikhina, Elena; Naranjo, Antonio; Rexhepi, Sylejman; Taylor, Peter; Tlustochowich, Witold; Tsirogianni, Afrodite; Sokka, Tuulikki

2009-11-01

To evaluate the utility of the duration of morning stiffness (MS), as a patient-reported outcome (PRO), in assessing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity. We acquired information on 5439 patients in QUEST-RA, an international database of patients with RA evaluated by a standard protocol. MS duration was assessed from time of waking to time of maximal improvement. Ability of MS duration to differentiate RA activity states, based on Disease Activity Score (DAS)28, was assessed by analysis of variance; and a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted for discriminating clinically active (DAS28 > 3.2) from less active (DAS28 duration to Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data (RAPID)3, a PRO index based on physical function, pain, and general health (GH), in predicting the 3-variable DAS28 (DAS28v3). MS duration had moderate correlation (r = 0.41-0.48) with pain, Health Assessment Questionnaire, and GH; and weak correlation (r = 0.23-0.39) with joint counts and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. MS duration differed significantly among patients with different RA activity (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) showed moderate ability of MS duration to differentiate clinically active from less active RA. ANCOVA showed significant interactive effects between RAPID3 and the MS duration categories (p = 0.0005) in predicting DAS28v3. The effect of MS was found to be clinically important in patients with the low RAPID3 scores (< 6) in whom the presence of MS may indicate clinically active disease (DAS28v3 > 3.2). MS duration has a moderate correlation with RA disease activity. Assessment of MS duration may be clinically helpful in patients with low RAPID3 scores.

Climate change impacts on the duration and frequency of combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, C.; Mailhot, A.

2012-12-01

Combined sewer overflows (CSO) occur when large rainwater inflow from heavy precipitation exceeds the capacity of urban combined sewage systems. Many American and European cities with old sewage systems see their water quality significantly deteriorate during such events. In the long term, changes in the rainfall regime due to climate change may lead to more severe and more frequent CSO episodes and thus compel cities to review their global water management. The overall objective of this study is to investigate how climate change will impact CSO frequency and duration. Data from rain gauges located nearby 30 overflow outfalls, in southern Quebec, Canada, were used to identify rain events leading to overflows, using CSO monitored data from May to October during the period 2007-2009. For each site, occurrence and duration of CSO events were recorded and linked to a rainfall event. Many rain events features can be used to predict CSO events, such as total depth, duration, average intensity and peak intensity. Results based on Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis show that CSO occurrence is best predicted by total rainfall. A methodology is proposed to calculate the CSO probability of occurrence and duration for each site of interest using rainfall series as input data. Monte Carlo method is then used to estimate CSO frequency. To evaluate the climate change impact on CSO, these relationships are used with simulated data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model to compare the distribution of annual number of CSO events over the 1960-1990 period and the 2070-2100 period.

Psychosocial issues in space: future challenges.

PubMed

Sandal, G M

2001-06-01

As the duration of space flights increases and crews become more heterogeneous, psychosocial factors are likely to play an increasingly important role in determining mission success. The operations of the International Space Station and planning of interplanetary missions represent important future challenges for how to select, train and monitor crews. So far, empirical evidence about psychological factors in space is based on simulations and personnel in analog environments (i.e. polar expeditions, submarines). It is apparent that attempts to transfer from these environments to space requires a thorough analysis of the human behavior specific to the fields. Recommendations for research include the effects of multi-nationality on crew interaction, development of tension within crews and between Mission Control, and prediction of critical phases in adaptation over time. Selection of interpersonally compatible crews, pre-mission team training and implementation of tools for self-monitoring of psychological parameters ensure that changes in mission requirements maximize crew performance.

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

Regulatory focus affects predictions of the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Spina, Roy

2015-02-01

This research investigated how regulatory focus might influence trend-reversal predictions. We hypothesized that compared with promotion focus, prevention focus hinders sense of control, which in turn predicts more trend-reversal developments. Studies 1 and 3 revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur when they focused on prevention than when they focused on promotion. Study 2 extended the findings by including a control condition, and revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur in the prevention condition than in the promotion and control conditions. Studies 4 and 5 revealed that participants' chronic prevention focus predicted a low sense of control (Study 4), and that promotion focus predicted a high sense of control (Studies 4 and 5). Furthermore, participants with a high sense of control expected trend-reversal developments to be less likely to occur. Thus, the results provided converging evidence for the hypothesis. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

The Effect of Interruption Duration and Demand on Resuming Suspended Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monk, Christopher A.; Trafton, J. Gregory; Boehm-Davis, Deborah A.

2008-01-01

The time to resume task goals after an interruption varied depending on the duration and cognitive demand of interruptions, as predicted by the memory for goals model (Altmann & Trafton, 2002). Three experiments using an interleaved tasks interruption paradigm showed that longer and more demanding interruptions led to longer resumption times in a…

Persistent insomnia: the role of objective short sleep duration and mental health.

PubMed

Vgontzas, Alexandros N; Fernandez-Mendoza, Julio; Bixler, Edward O; Singareddy, Ravi; Shaffer, Michele L; Calhoun, Susan L; Liao, Duanping; Basta, Maria; Chrousos, George P

2012-01-01

Few population-based, longitudinal studies have examined risk factors for persistent insomnia, and the results are inconsistent. Furthermore, none of these studies have examined the role of polysomnographic (PSG) variables such as sleep duration or sleep apnea on the persistence of insomnia. Representative longitudinal study. Sleep laboratory. From a random, general population sample of 1741 individuals of the adult Penn State Cohort, 1395 were followed-up after 7.5 years. Individuals underwent one-night PSG and full medical evaluation at baseline and a telephone interview at follow-up. PSG sleep duration was analyzed as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable: < 6 h sleep (short sleep duration) and ≥ 6 h sleep (longer sleep duration). The rates of insomnia persistence, partial remission, and full remission were 44.0%, 30.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. Objective short sleep duration significantly increased the odds of persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 3.19) and to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 4.92). Mental health problems at baseline were strongly associated with persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 9.67) and to a lesser degree compared to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 3.68). Smoking, caffeine, and alcohol consumption and sleep apnea did not predict persistent insomnia. Objective short sleep duration and mental health problems are the strongest predictors of persistent insomnia. These data further support the validity and clinical utility of objective short sleep duration as a novel marker of the biological severity of insomnia.

Does experience of the 'occult' predict use of complementary medicine? Experience of, and beliefs about, both complementary medicine and ways of telling the future.

PubMed

Furnham, A

2000-12-01

This study looked at the relationship between ratings of the perceived effectiveness of 24 methods for telling the future, 39 complementary therapies (CM) and 12 specific attitude statements about science and medicine. A total of 159 participants took part. The results showed that the participants were deeply sceptical of the effectiveness of the methods for telling the future which factored into meaningful and interpretable factors. Participants were much more positive about particular, but not all, specialties of complementary medicine (CM). These also factored into a meaningful factor structure. Finally, the 12 attitude to science/medicine statements revealed four factors: scepticism of medicine; the importance of psychological factors; patient protection; and the importance of scientific evaluation. Regressional analysis showed that belief in the total effectiveness of different ways of predicting the future was best predicted by beliefs in the effectiveness of the CM therapies. Although interest in the occult was associated with interest in CM, participants were able to distinguish between the two, and displayed scepticism about the effectiveness of methods of predicting the future and some CM therapies. Copyright 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Vibhu; Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-09-21

By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user's future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users' search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted

Anticipating the future: Automatic prediction failures in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Ford, Judith M.; Mathalon, Daniel H.

2011-01-01

People with schizophrenia often misperceive sensations and misinterpret experiences, perhaps contributing to psychotic symptoms. These misperceptions and misinterpretations might result from an inability to make valid predictions about expected sensations and experiences. Healthy normal people take advantage of neural mechanisms that allow them to make predictions unconsciously, facilitating processing of expected sensations and distinguishing the expected from the unexpected. In this paper, we focus on two types of automatic, unconscious mechanisms that allow us to predict our perceptions. The first involves predictions made via innate mechanisms basic to all species in the animal kingdom—the efference copy and corollary discharge mechanisms. They accompany our voluntary movements and allow us to suppress sensations resulting from our actions. We study this during talking, and show that auditory cortical response to the speech sounds during talking is reduced compared to when they are played back. This suppression is reduced in schizophrenia, suggesting a failure to predict the sensations resulting from talking. The second mechanism involves implicitly learning what to expect from the current context of events. We study this by observing the brain's response to an unexpected repetition of an event, when a change would have been predicted. That patients have a reduced response suggests they failed to predict that it was time for a change. Both types of predictions should happen automatically and effortlessly, allowing for economic processing of expected events and orientation to unexpected ones. These prediction failures characterize the diagnosis of schizophrenia rather than reflecting specific symptoms. PMID:21959054

Climatic changes, bioclimatic stages and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-12-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications related to public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable for predestinate pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned to favorable ecological habitats, flooded areas extent and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations in relation with actual climat. We have refine mediterranean spatial knowledge in mediterranean basin with actual data. We show evolution of climat and consequences for bioclimatic stages, using world clim data and IPCC scenarii. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects birds, horses and hands up to men (e.g.West Nile virus appeared in 1999 in USA, between 1999 and 2007 : 27 000 human cases including 1 050 deaths). Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it’s possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

PubMed

Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

2010-10-01

This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p < 0.05) and in the individual competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p < 0.05), medical knowledge (R = 0.59, p < 0.05), and practice-based learning (R = 0.49, p < 0.05). No correlation was noted in the systems-based practice, interpersonal and communication skills, or professionalism competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Russian Countermeasure Systems for Adverse Effects of Microgravity on Long-Duration ISS Flights.

PubMed

Kozlovskaya, Inessa B; Yarmanova, E N; Yegorov, A D; Stepantsov, V I; Fomina, E V; Tomilovaskaya, E S

2015-12-01

The system of countermeasures for the adverse effects of microgravity developed in the USSR supported the successful implementation of long-duration spaceflight (LDS) programs on the Salyut and Mir orbital stations and was subsequently adapted for flights on the International Space Station (ISS). From 2000 through 2010, crews completed 26 ISS flight increments ranging in duration from 140 to 216 d, with the participation of 27 Russian cosmonauts. These flights have made it possible to more precisely determine a crew-member's level of conditioning, better assess the advantages and disadvantages of training processes, and determine prospects for future developments.

Infarct Volume Prediction by Early Magnetic Resonance Imaging in a Murine Stroke Model Depends on Ischemia Duration and Time of Imaging.

PubMed

Leithner, Christoph; Füchtemeier, Martina; Jorks, Devi; Mueller, Susanne; Dirnagl, Ulrich; Royl, Georg

2015-11-01

Despite standardization of experimental stroke models, final infarct sizes after middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) vary considerably. This introduces uncertainties in the evaluation of drug effects on stroke. Magnetic resonance imaging may detect variability of surgically induced ischemia before treatment and thus improve treatment effect evaluation. MCAO of 45 and 90 minutes induced brain infarcts in 83 mice. During, and 3 and 6 hours after MCAO, we performed multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging. We evaluated time courses of cerebral blood flow, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), T1, T2, accuracy of infarct prediction strategies, and impact on statistical evaluation of experimental stroke studies. ADC decreased during MCAO but recovered completely on reperfusion after 45 and partially after 90-minute MCAO, followed by a secondary decline. ADC lesion volumes during MCAO or at 6 hours after MCAO largely determined final infarct volumes for 90 but not for 45 minutes MCAO. The majority of chance findings of final infarct volume differences in random group allocations of animals were associated with significant differences in early ADC lesion volumes for 90, but not for 45-minute MCAO. The prediction accuracy of early magnetic resonance imaging for infarct volumes depends on timing of magnetic resonance imaging and MCAO duration. Variability of the posterior communicating artery in C57Bl6 mice contributes to differences in prediction accuracy between short and long MCAO. Early ADC imaging may be used to reduce errors in the interpretation of post MCAO treatment effects on stroke volumes. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Sandoval, L.; Leveton, L.; Arias, D.

2011-01-01

In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

Testing inferior colliculus neurons for selectivity to the rate or duration of frequency modulated sweeps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faure, Paul A.; Morrison, James A.; Valdizón-Rodríguez, Roberto

2018-05-01

Here we propose a method for testing how the responses of so-called "FM duration-tuned neurons (DTNs)" encode temporal properties of frequency modulated (FM) sweeps to determine if the responses of so-called "FM duration-tuned neurons (DTNs)" are tuned to FM rate or FM duration. Based on previous studies it was unclear if the responses of "FM DTNs" were tuned to signal duration, like pure-tone DTNs, or FM sweep rate. We tested this using single-unit extracellular recording in the inferior colliculus (IC) of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus). We presented IC cells with linear FM sweeps that were varied in FM center frequency (CEF) and spectral bandwidth (BW) to measure the FM rate tuning responses of a cell. We also varied FM signal duration to measure the best duration (BD) and temporal BW of duration tuning of a cell. We then doubled (and halved) the best FM BW, while keeping the CEF constant, and remeasured the BD and temporal BW of duration tuning with FM bandwidth manipulated signals. We reasoned that the range of excitatory signal durations should not change in a true FM DTN whose responses are tuned to signal duration; however, when stimulated with bandwidth manipulated FM sounds the range of excitatory signal durations should predictably vary in a FM rate-tuned cell. Preliminary data indicate that our stimulus paradigm can disambiguate whether the evoked responses of an IC neuron are FM sweep rate tuned or FM duration tuned.

Bone Density Following Long Duration Space Flight and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, Shreyasee; Achenbach, Sara J.; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Melton, L. Joseph; Khosla, Sundeep; Sibonga, Jean

2010-01-01

At approx.12 months, Bone Mineral Density (BMD) at most sites in men remained lower than would be predicted, raising concerns for long-term bone health consequences following space flight. Additional analyses based on longer follow-up are being conducted. Although the N is too small for definitive conclusions, women had lower rates of loss at load-bearing sites of the hip and spine immediately post-flight relative to men and smaller differences between observed vs. predicted BMD at most sites, both immediately and 12 months post-flight, relative to men. The role of other exposures/risk factors need to be explored to further understand these possible gender differences in BMD loss and recovery following long-duration space flight.

Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) structural verification test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, T. C.; Lucy, M. H.; Shearer, R. L.

1983-01-01

Structural load tests on the Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF) primary structure were conducted. These tests had three purposes: (1) demonstrate structural adequacy of the assembled LDEF primary structure when subjected to anticipated flight loads; (2) verify analytical models and methods used in loads and stress analysis; and (3) perform tests to comply with the Space Transportation System (STS) requirements. Test loads were based on predicted limit loads which consider all flight events. Good agreement is shown between predicted and observed load, strain, and deflection data. Test data show that the LDEF structure was subjected to 1.2 times limit load to meet the STS requirements. The structural adequacy of the LDEF is demonstrated.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.

PubMed

Rindermann, Heiner; Pichelmann, Stefan

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

Frailty Versus Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries Initiative Fall Risk Score: Ability to Predict Future Falls.

PubMed

Crow, Rebecca S; Lohman, Matthew C; Pidgeon, Dawna; Bruce, Martha L; Bartels, Stephen J; Batsis, John A

2018-03-01

To compare the ability of frailty status to predict fall risk with that of community fall risk screening tools. Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data from NHATS. National Health and Aging Trend Study (NHATS) 2011-2015. Individuals aged 65 and older (N = 7,392). Fall risk was defined according to the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries (STEADI) initiative. Frailty was defined as exhaustion, weight loss, low activity, slow gait speed, and weak grip strength. Robust was defined as meeting 0 criteria, prefrailty as 1 or 2 criteria, and frailty as 3 or more criteria. Falls were self-reported and ascertained using NHATS subsequent rounds (2012-2015). We compared the ability of frailty to predict future falls with that of STEADI score, adjusting for age, race, sex, education, comorbidities, hearing and vision impairment, and disability. Of the 7,392 participants (58.5% female), there 3,545 (48.0%) were classified as being at low risk of falling, 2,966 (40.1%) as being at moderate risk, and 881 (11.9%) as being at high risk. The adjusted risk of falling over the 4 subsequent years was 2.5 times as great for the moderate-risk group (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.16-2.89) and almost 4 times as great (HR = 3.79, 95% CI = 2.76-5.21) for the high-risk group as for the low-risk group. Risk of falling was greater for those who were prefrail (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.16-1.55) and frail (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 0.94-1.54) than for those who were robust. STEADI score is a strong predictor of future falls. Addition of frailty status does not improve the ability of the STEADI measure to predict future falls. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Shorter sleep duration is associated with decreased insulin sensitivity in healthy white men.

PubMed

Wong, Patricia M; Manuck, Stephen B; DiNardo, Monica M; Korytkowski, Mary; Muldoon, Matthew F

2015-02-01

Short sleep has been linked to increased risk for type 2 diabetes and incident cardiovascular disease and acute sleep restriction impairs insulin-mediated glucose disposal. Here, we examined whether indices of glucose metabolism vary with naturally occurring differences in sleep duration. Subjects were midlife, nondiabetic community volunteers (N = 224; mean age 44.5 ± 6.6 y [range: 30-54]; 52% female; 89% white). Laboratory measures of insulin sensitivity (Si) and acute secretion (AIRg), glucose effectiveness (Sg), and disposition index (Di) were obtained from a 180-min, intravenous glucose tolerance test. Shorter self-reported sleep duration (in hours) was associated with lower Si (P = 0.043), although an interaction of sleep duration with participant race (β = -0.81, P = 0.002) showed this association significant only in whites. Moreover, sex-stratified analyses revealed that shorter sleep duration predicted lower Si in white men (β = 0.29, P = 0.003) but not in white women (P = 0.22). Findings were similar for AIRg. The relationship between sleep duration and AIRg was moderated by race as well as sex, such that shorter sleep duration associated with greater insulin release only in white men (β = -0.28, P = 0.004). Sleep duration was unrelated to Sg and Di (P's > 0.05). Our findings suggest that shorter sleep duration may impair insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function in nondiabetic white men, possibly contributing to later type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Developing and Evaluating Computer-Based Teamwork Skills Training for Long-Duration Spaceflight Crews

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hixson, Katharine

2013-01-01

Due to the long-duration and long distance nature of future exploration missions, coupled with significant communication delays from ground-based personnel, NASA astronauts will be living and working within confined, isolated environments for significant periods of time. This extreme environment poses concerns for the flight crews' ability to…

Future of Earth Orientation Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

introduced into the prediction process will increase . Potential drivers for change are discussed and possible directions for change are outlined. Keywords...is increasing as data latency has been reduced. However, all of these have been natural progressions; straightforward responses to improvements in...7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) U.S. Naval Observatory,3450 Massachusetts Ave NW,Washington,DC,20392 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION

Self-Reported Mental Health Predicts Acute Respiratory Infection.

PubMed

Maxwell, Lizzie; Barrett, Bruce; Chase, Joseph; Brown, Roger; Ewers, Tola

2015-06-01

Poor mental health conditions, including stress and depression, have been recognized as a risk factor for the development of acute respiratory infection. Very few studies have considered the role of general mental health in acute respiratory infection occurrence. The aim of this analysis is to determine if overall mental health, as assessed by the mental component of the Short Form 12 Health Survey, predicts incidence, duration, or severity of acute respiratory infection. Data utilized for this analysis came from the National Institute of Health-funded Meditation or Exercise for Preventing Acute Respiratory Infection (MEPARI) and MEPARI-2 randomized controlled trials examining the effects of meditation or exercise on acute respiratory infection among adults aged > 30 years in Madison, Wisconsin. A Kendall tau rank correlation compared the Short Form 12 mental component, completed by participants at baseline, with acute respiratory infection incidence, duration, and area-under-the-curve (global) severity, as assessed by the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey. Participants were recruited from Madison, Wis, using advertisements in local media. Short Form 12 mental health scores significantly predicted incidence (P = 0.037) of acute respiratory infection, but not duration (P = 0.077) or severity (P = 0.073). The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) negative emotion measure significantly predicted global severity (P = 0.036), but not incidence (P = 0.081) or duration (P = 0.125). Mindful Attention Awareness Scale scores significantly predicted incidence of acute respiratory infection (P = 0.040), but not duration (P = 0.053) or severity (P = 0.70). The PHQ-9, PSS-10, and PANAS positive measures did not show significant predictive associations with any of the acute respiratory infection outcomes. Self-reported overall mental health, as measured by the mental component of Short Form 12, predicts acute respiratory infection incidence.

Coastlines of the past: clues for our future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.

2017-12-01

Coastlines are constantly evolving due to the long-term effects of sea-level change and human impacts, as well as in response to high-impact, short duration hazard events such as storms, tsunamis, and earthquakes. The sediments that accumulate in coastal systems such as estuaries, dunes, and beaches archieve the enviornmental record of the past, providing us a baseline with which to predict future coastal hazard magnitude and recurrence intervals. We study this record to understand future hazard potential, as well as to aid restoration efforts. Many coastal systems around the world have been degraded in the last few hundred years by human activity- these regions are important breeding grounds for commercially viable species, natural pollution filters, and barriers against inundation. Efforts to restore coastal systems often rely on data from historical sources to reconstruct past coastal conditions-the geological record can extend the timeframe with which we think about possible restoration points. In addition, studying past coastal response to enviornmental changes can aid the effort to restore systems to a point of sustainability and resilience instead of simply restoring to an arbirtary point in time.

Weight Suppression Predicts Maintenance and Onset of Bulimic Syndromes at 10-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Keel, Pamela K.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2010-01-01

Conflicting results have emerged regarding the prognostic significance of weight suppression for maintenance of bulimic symptoms. This study examined whether the magnitude of weight suppression would predict bulimic syndrome maintenance and onset in college-based samples of men (n=369) and women (n=968) at 10-year follow-up. Data come from a longitudinal study of body weight and disordered eating with high retention (80%). Among those with a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression significantly predicted maintenance of the syndrome, and, among those without a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression predicted onset of a bulimic syndrome at 10-year follow-up in multivariate models that included baseline body mass index, diet frequency, and weight perception. Future research should address mechanisms that could account for the effects of weight suppression over a long duration of follow-up. PMID:20455599

Effects of frequency and duration on psychometric functions for detection of increments and decrements in sinusoids in noise.

PubMed

Moore, B C; Peters, R W; Glasberg, B R

1999-12-01

Psychometric functions for detecting increments or decrements in level of sinusoidal pedestals were measured for increment and decrement durations of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 ms and for frequencies of 250, 1000, and 4000 Hz. The sinusoids were presented in background noise intended to mask spectral splatter. A three-interval, three-alternative procedure was used. The results indicated that, for increments, the detectability index d' was approximately proportional to delta I/I. For decrements, d' was approximately proportional to delta L. The slopes of the psychometric functions increased (indicating better performance) with increasing frequency for both increments and decrements. For increments, the slopes increased with increasing increment duration up to 200 ms at 250 and 1000 Hz, but at 4000 Hz they increased only up to 50 ms. For decrements, the slopes increased for durations up to 50 ms, and then remained roughly constant, for all frequencies. For a center frequency of 250 Hz, the slopes of the psychometric functions for increment detection increased with duration more rapidly than predicted by a "multiple-looks" hypothesis, i.e., more rapidly than the square root of duration, for durations up to 50 ms. For center frequencies of 1000 and 4000 Hz, the slopes increased less rapidly than predicted by a multiple-looks hypothesis, for durations greater than about 20 ms. The slopes of the psychometric functions for decrement detection increased with decrement duration at a rate slightly greater than the square root of duration, for durations up to 50 ms, at all three frequencies. For greater durations, the increase in slope was less than proportional to the square root of duration. The results were analyzed using a model incorporating a simulated auditory filter, a compressive nonlinearity, a sliding temporal integrator, and a decision device based on a template mechanism. The model took into account the effects of both the external noise and an assumed internal

Duration of oral contraceptive use predicts women's initial and subsequent subjective responses to sexual stimuli.

PubMed

Renfro, Kaytlin J; Rupp, Heather; Wallen, Kim

2015-09-01

Recent work suggests that a woman's hormonal state when first exposed to visual sexual stimuli (VSS) modulates her initial and subsequent responses to VSS. The present study investigated whether women's initial hormonal state was related to their subjective ratings of VSS, and whether this relationship differed with VSS content. We reanalyzed previously collected data from 14 naturally cycling (NC) women and 14 women taking oral contraceptives (OCs), who subjectively rated VSS at three hormonal time-points. NC women's ratings of 216 unique sexual images were collected during the menstrual, periovulatory, and luteal phases of their menstrual cycles, and OC women's ratings were collected at comparable time-points across their pill-cycles. NC women's initial hormonal state was not related to their ratings of VSS. OC women's initial hormonal state predicted their ratings of VSS with minimal contextual information and of images depicting female-to-male oral sex. Specifically, women who entered the study in the third week of their pill-cycle (OC-3 women) rated such images as less attractive at all testing sessions than did all other women. OC-3 women were also the only women to rate decontextualized VSS as unattractive at all testing sessions. These results corroborate previous studies in which women's initial hormonal state was found to predict subsequent interest in sexual stimuli. Future work, with larger samples, should more directly investigate whether OC-3 women's negative assessment of specific types of VSS reflects a reaction to the laboratory environment or a broader mechanism, wherein OC women's sexual interests decrease late in their pill-cycle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rushby, Nick

2013-01-01

This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

Factors predictive of the onset and duration of action of local anesthesia in mandibular third-molar surgery: a prospective study.

PubMed

Al-Shayyab, Mohammad H; Baqain, Zaid H

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to assess the influence of patients' and surgical variables on the onset and duration of action of local anesthesia (LA) in mandibular third-molar (M3) surgery. Patients scheduled for mandibular M3 surgery were considered for inclusion in this prospective cohort study. Patients' and surgical variables were recorded. Two per cent (2%) lidocaine with 1:100,000 epinephrine was used to block the nerves for extraction of mandibular M3. Then, the onset of action and duration of LA were monitored. Univariate analysis and multivariate regression analysis were used to analyze the data. The final cohort included 88 subjects (32 men and 56 women; mean age ± SD = 29.3 ± 12.3 yr). With univariate analysis, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking quantity and duration, operation time, and 'volume of local anesthetic needed' significantly influenced the onset of action and duration of LA. Multivariate regression revealed that age and smoking quantity were the only statistically significant predictors of the onset of action of LA, whereas age, smoking quantity, and 'volume of local anesthetic needed' were the only statistically significant predictors of duration of LA. Further studies are recommended to uncover other predictors of the onset of action and duration of LA. © 2018 Eur J Oral Sci.

Prolonged QRS duration on surface electrocardiogram is associated with left ventricular restrictive filling pattern.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Turan; Durakoğlugil, Murtaza Emre; Çiçek, Yüksel; Çetin, Mustafa; Duman, Hakan; Şatiroğlu, Ömer; Çelik, Şükrü

2017-03-01

Prolonged QRS duration is associated with decreased left ventricular (LV) systolic function. However, the relation between LV restrictive filling pattern (RFP) and QRS duration has not been investigated yet. The purpose of our study was to assess this relationship. We analyzed standard 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) of 155 consecutive patients. Mitral inflow and septal tissue velocities were obtained using the apical 4-chamber view with pulsed Doppler echocardiography. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to measured deceleration time (DT): restrictive (with DT ≤130 ms) or non-restrictive (with DT >130 ms). QRS duration was significantly longer in the restrictive group than in the non-restrictive group (0.101 vs. 0.090 s, p  < 0.0001). QRS duration of >0.10 s was highly specific (82.6%), but modestly sensitive (64.7%), for the prediction of LV RFP. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that E/A ratio, peak E, peak A, septal e', and a' velocities were significantly associated with RFP. Prolonged QRS duration (>0.10 s) obtained from a standard resting 12-lead ECG is associated with LV RFP. However, the relationship of QRS duration with RFP was not independent of echocardiographic parameters.

Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

PubMed

Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

2016-11-01

The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with Nevada adolescents.

PubMed

Ditmyer, Marcia M; Dounis, Georgia; Howard, Katherine M; Mobley, Connie; Cappelli, David

2011-05-20

The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008). The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural), tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP), negative predictive value (PVN), and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

Movement initiation-locked activity of the anterior putamen predicts future movement instability in periodic bimanual movement.

PubMed

Aramaki, Yu; Haruno, Masahiko; Osu, Rieko; Sadato, Norihiro

2011-07-06

In periodic bimanual movements, anti-phase-coordinated patterns often change into in-phase patterns suddenly and involuntarily. Because behavior in the initial period of a sequence of cycles often does not show any obvious errors, it is difficult to predict subsequent movement errors in the later period of the cyclical sequence. Here, we evaluated performance in the later period of the cyclical sequence of bimanual periodic movements using human brain activity measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging as well as using initial movement features. Eighteen subjects performed a 30 s bimanual finger-tapping task. We calculated differences in initiation-locked transient brain activity between antiphase and in-phase tapping conditions. Correlation analysis revealed that the difference in the anterior putamen activity during antiphase compared within-phase tapping conditions was strongly correlated with future instability as measured by the mean absolute deviation of the left-hand intertap interval during antiphase movements relative to in-phase movements (r = 0.81). Among the initial movement features we measured, only the number of taps to establish the antiphase movement pattern exhibited a significant correlation. However, the correlation efficient of 0.60 was not high enough to predict the characteristics of subsequent movement. There was no significant correlation between putamen activity and initial movement features. It is likely that initiating unskilled difficult movements requires increased anterior putamen activity, and this activity increase may facilitate the initiation of movement via the basal ganglia-thalamocortical circuit. Our results suggest that initiation-locked transient activity of the anterior putamen can be used to predict future motor performance.

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, Shreyasee; Achenbach, Sara J.; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Sibonga, Jean

2011-01-01

It is well recognized that bone mineral density [BMD] at load-bearing sites of the hip and spine sustain significant loss during space flight, estimated at approximately 0.5-1.0% per month. However, the long-term effects on bone health following return from long-duration space flight remain unclear. It is unknown whether BMD for men recovers beyond 1 year following return from space to what would be predicted or if deficits persist. Using our previously created prediction models, we compared the observed BMD of male US crew following 3 years since returning from longduration space flight with what would be predicted if they had not been exposed to microgravity.

Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling.

PubMed

Fang, Wei; Li, Jiu-Ke; Jin, Xiao-Hong; Dai, Yuan-Min; Li, Yu-Min

2016-01-01

To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment (RRD) after sclera buckling (SB). Totally 48 patients (51 eyes) with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), posterior vitreous detachment (PVD), baseline best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student's t-test, Wilcoxon two-sample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 logMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761±0.4956 logMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% (47/51). Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration (r=0.3850, P=0.0053), less detached area (r=0.5489, P<0.0001), fovea (r=0.4605, P=0.0007), no PVR (r=0.3138, P=0.0250), better baseline BCVA (r=0.7291, P<0.0001), shorter operative duration (r=0.3233, P=0.0207) and longer follow up (r=-0.3358, P=0.0160) were related with better final BCVA, while independent predictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square (PR(2))=0.5316, P<0.0001], shorter symptoms duration (PR(2)=0.0609, P=0.0101), longer follow up duration (PR(2)=0.0278, P=0.0477) and shorter operative duration (PR(2)=0.0338, P=0.0350). Patients with vision improvement took up 49.02% (25/51). Univariate and multivariate analyses both revealed predictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio (OR) =50.369, P=0.0041] and longer follow up duration (OR=1.144, P=0.0067). Independent

LONG-DURATION X-RAY FLASH AND X-RAY-RICH GAMMA-RAY BURSTS FROM LOW-MASS POPULATION III STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakauchi, Daisuke; Kashiyama, Kazumi; Nakamura, Takashi

2012-11-10

Recent numerical simulations suggest that Population III (Pop III) stars were born with masses not larger than {approx}100 M {sub Sun} and typically {approx}40 M {sub Sun }. By self-consistently considering the jet generation and propagation in the envelope of these low-mass Pop III stars, we find that a Pop III blue supergiant star has the possibility of giving rise to a gamma-ray burst (GRB) even though it keeps a massive hydrogen envelope. We evaluate observational characteristics of Pop III GRBs and predict that Pop III GRBs have a duration of {approx}10{sup 5} s in the observer frame and amore » peak luminosity of {approx}5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 50} erg s{sup -1}. Assuming that the E {sub p}-L {sub p} (or E {sub p}-E {sub {gamma},iso}) correlation holds for Pop III GRBs, we find that the spectrum peak energy falls at approximately a few keV (or {approx}100 keV) in the observer frame. We discuss the detectability of Pop III GRBs by future satellite missions such as EXIST and Lobster. If the E {sub p}-E {sub {gamma},iso} correlation holds, we have the possibility to detect Pop III GRBs at z {approx} 9 as long-duration X-ray-rich GRBs by EXIST. Conversely, if the E {sub p}-L {sub p} correlation holds, we have the possibility to detect Pop III GRBs up to z {approx} 19 as long-duration X-ray flashes by Lobster.« less

The Future of Educational Television.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Robert B.

In order to predict the future of educational television, the author discusses first instructional television, then public television, and also comments on the applications of communications satellites to television in both industrialized and developing nations. He predicts that in the future instructional television will be mainly carried by…

Inheritance of Cell-Cycle Duration in the Presence of Periodic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosheiff, Noga; Martins, Bruno M. C.; Pearl-Mizrahi, Sivan; Grünberger, Alexander; Helfrich, Stefan; Mihalcescu, Irina; Kohlheyer, Dietrich; Locke, James C. W.; Glass, Leon; Balaban, Nathalie Q.

2018-04-01

Periodic forcing of nonlinear oscillators leads to a large number of dynamic behaviors. The coupling of the cell cycle to the circadian clock provides a biological realization of such forcing. A previous model of forcing leads to nontrivial relations between correlations along cell lineages. Here, we present a simplified two-dimensional nonlinear map for the periodic forcing of the cell cycle. Using high-throughput single-cell microscopy, we have studied the correlations between cell-cycle duration in discrete lineages of several different organisms, including those with known coupling to a circadian clock and those without known coupling to a circadian clock. The model reproduces the paradoxical correlations and predicts new features that can be compared with the experimental data. By fitting the model to the data, we extract the important parameters that govern the dynamics. Interestingly, the model reproduces bimodal distributions for cell-cycle duration, as well as the gating of cell division by the phase of the clock, without having been explicitly fed into the model. In addition, the model predicts that circadian coupling may increase cell-to-cell variability in a clonal population of cells. In agreement with this prediction, deletion of the circadian clock reduces variability. Our results show that simple correlations can identify systems under periodic forcing and that studies of nonlinear coupling of biological oscillators provide insight into basic cellular processes of growth.

Comparison of Spares Logistics Analysis Techniques for Long Duration Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, Andrew; de Weck, Olivier; Mattfeld, Bryan; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, William

2015-01-01

As the durations and distances involved in human exploration missions increase, the logistics associated with the repair and maintenance becomes more challenging. Whereas the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) depends upon regular resupply from the Earth, this paradigm may not be feasible for future missions. Longer mission durations result in higher probabilities of component failures as well as higher uncertainty regarding which components may fail, and longer distances from Earth increase the cost of resupply as well as the speed at which the crew can abort to Earth in the event of an emergency. As such, mission development efforts must take into account the logistics requirements associated with maintenance and spares. Accurate prediction of the spare parts demand for a given mission plan and how that demand changes as a result of changes to the system architecture enables full consideration of the lifecycle cost associated with different options. In this paper, we utilize a range of analysis techniques - Monte Carlo, semi-Markov, binomial, and heuristic - to examine the relationship between the mass of spares and probability of loss of function related to the Carbon Dioxide Removal System (CRS) for a notional, simplified mission profile. The Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), developed at NASA Langley Research Center, is utilized for the Monte Carlo analysis. We discuss the implications of these results and the features and drawbacks of each method. In particular, we identify the limitations of heuristic methods for logistics analysis, and the additional insights provided by more in-depth techniques. We discuss the potential impact of system complexity on each technique, as well as their respective abilities to examine dynamic events. This work is the first step in an effort that will quantitatively examine how well these techniques handle increasingly more complex systems by gradually expanding the system boundary.

Behavioral health in Antarctica: implications for long-duration space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lugg, Desmond J.

2005-01-01

Ideally, evidence from long-duration spaceflight should be used to predict likely occurrences of behavioral health events and for planning management strategies for such events. With small numbers of space travelers, and limited long-duration missions of a year or more, Earth analogues and simulations must be used as the evidence base, despite such analogues lacking microgravity, radiation, rapidly altering photoperiodicity, and fidelity to space. Antarctic health data are reviewed and an assessment made of the likely frequency of behavioral health events. Based on the Antarctic evidence, the likelihood of behavioral health problems in space is low. However, such cases may be serious and of high consequence, placing considerable demands on the mission crew and ground support to achieve a successful outcome, given the availability of pharmaceuticals and resources.

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of self-hypnosis on duration of labor and maternal and neonatal outcomes: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Werner, Anette; Uldbjerg, Niels; Zachariae, Robert; Nohr, Ellen A

2013-07-01

To examine the effect of a brief course in self-hypnosis for childbirth on duration of the labor and other birth outcomes. A randomized, controlled, single-blind trial. Aarhus University Hospital Skejby, Denmark. A total of 1222 healthy nulliparous women. A hypnosis group receiving three 1-h lessons in self-hypnosis with additional audio-recordings to ease childbirth, a relaxation group receiving three 1-h lessons in various relaxation methods and mindfulness with audio-recordings for additional training, and a usual-care group receiving only the usual antenatal care were compared. Duration of labor, birth complications, lactation success, caring for the child, and preferred future mode of delivery. No differences were found across the three groups on duration from arriving at the birth department until the expulsive phase of second stage of labor, the duration of the expulsive phase, or other birth outcomes. Fewer emergency and more elective cesarean sections occurred in the hypnosis group. No difference was seen across the groups for lactation success or caring for the child but fewer women in the hypnosis group preferred a cesarean section in future pregnancies because of fear of childbirth and negative birth experiences. Learning self-hypnosis to ease childbirth taught as a brief course failed to show any effects on duration of childbirth and other birth outcomes. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

How adolescents construct their future: the effect of loneliness on future orientation.

PubMed

Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

2004-12-01

This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs. instrumental) and distance (near vs. distant future). Data collected from Israeli Jewish adolescents (11th graders) were analysed by repeated measures ANOVAs and ANCOVAs (covariate: depressive experiences) for seven future orientation variables: value, expectance, control (motivational variables), hopes, fears (cognitive representation variables), exploration, commitment (behavioural variables). As predicted, lonely adolescents scored lower than socially embedded adolescents on future orientation variables applied to the relational and near future domains and lonely boys scored lower than lonely girls. However, effects were found only on the three future orientation motivational variables and not on the cognitive representation and behavioural variables. Contrary to prediction controlling for the effect of depressive experiences did not reduce the effect of loneliness on the future orientation variables, but reduced the tendency of adolescents to score higher on all future orientation variables in the instrumental than in the relational prospective domains. The contribution of these findings to the understanding of adolescent loneliness and future orientation was discussed and directions for future research were suggested.

Changes in Sleep Duration During Transition to Statutory Retirement: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

PubMed

Myllyntausta, Saana; Salo, Paula; Kronholm, Erkki; Aalto, Ville; Kivimäki, Mika; Vahtera, Jussi; Stenholm, Sari

2017-07-01

This study examined whether sleep duration changes during the transition from full-time work to statutory retirement and, if this were the case, which preretirement factors, including sociodemographic, work, lifestyle, and health factors, predict these changes. Data from repeated surveys of the Finnish Public Sector study, linked to records of retirement, were used. The study population consisted of 5785 participants who retired on a statutory basis in 2000-2011 and who had responded to surveys on sleep duration at least once immediately before and after their retirement (mean number of repeat study waves 3.6). Linear regression analyses with generalized estimating equations were used to examine changes in sleep duration around retirement. Before retirement there was a slight decrease in sleep duration. During the 4-year retirement transition, sleep duration increased from 7 hours 0 minutes (95% confidence interval [CI] 6 hours 54 minutes to 7 hours 6 minutes) to 7 hours and 22 minutes (95% CI 7 hours 16 minutes to 7 hours 27 minutes); thus, mean increase being 22 minutes. Increase in sleep duration was greatest in those who were short sleepers, heavy drinkers, or had sleep difficulties. After the retirement transition, sleep duration remained at approximately the same level, as no significant changes were observed. This longitudinal study suggests that transition from full-time work to statutory retirement is associated with an increase in sleep duration. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-duration orbital effects on optical coating materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herzig, Howard; Toft, Albert R.; Fleetwood, Charles M., Jr.

1993-01-01

We flew specimens of eight different optical coating materials in low earth orbit as part of the Long Duration Exposure Facility manifest to determine their ability to withstand exposure to the residual atomic 0 and other environmental effects at those altitudes. We included samples of Al, Au, Ir, Os, Pt, Al + MgF2, Al + SiO(x), and chemical-vapor-deposited SiC, representing reflective optical applications from the vacuum ultraviolet through the visible portions of the spectrum. We found that the majority of the materials suffered sufficient reflectance degradation to warrant careful consideration in the design of future space-flight instrumentation.

An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

Nitrous oxide-related postoperative nausea and vomiting depends on duration of exposure.

PubMed

Peyton, Philip J; Wu, Christine Yx

2014-05-01

Inclusion of nitrous oxide in the gas mixture has been implicated in postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) in numerous studies. However, these studies have not examined whether duration of exposure was a significant covariate. This distinction might affect the future place of nitrous oxide in clinical practice. PubMed listed journals reporting trials in which patients randomized to a nitrous oxide or nitrous oxide-free anesthetic for surgery were included, where the incidence of PONV within the first 24 postoperative hours and mean duration of anesthesia was reported. Meta-regression of the log risk ratio for PONV with nitrous oxide (lnRR PONVN2O) versus duration was performed. Twenty-nine studies in 27 articles met the inclusion criteria, randomizing 10,317 patients. There was a significant relationship between lnRR PONVN2O and duration (r = 0.51, P = 0.002). Risk ratio PONV increased 20% per hour of nitrous oxide after 45 min. The number needed to treat to prevent PONV by avoiding nitrous oxide was 128, 23, and 9 where duration was less than 1, 1 to 2, and over 2 h, respectively. The risk ratio for the overall effect of nitrous oxide on PONV was 1.21 (CIs, 1.04-1.40); P = 0.014. This duration-related effect may be via disturbance of methionine and folate metabolism. No clinically significant effect of nitrous oxide on the risk of PONV exists under an hour of exposure. Nitrous oxide-related PONV should not be seen as an impediment to its use in minor or ambulatory surgery.