Science.gov

Sample records for predicting future duration

  1. Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

  2. Predicting Future Citation Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    2003-01-01

    Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

  3. Shortened sleep duration does not predict obesity in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Calamaro, Christina J; Park, Sunhee; Mason, Thornton B A; Marcus, Carole L; Weaver, Terri E; Pack, Allan; Ratcliffe, Sarah J

    2010-12-01

    Obesity continues to be a major public health issue. In adolescents, there are limited studies on the relationship between obesity and sleep duration. We found hypothesized that an average sleep duration of <6 h in adolescents was associated with obesity. Data were from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD Health); a survey of 90,000 youths, aged 12-18 years; surveyed in several waves. The sample population for our study was 13,568. Weighted multiple logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between obesity at Wave II and sleep duration, having adjusted for skipping breakfast ≥ 2/week; race, gender, parental income, TV ≥ 2 h per day, depression, and obesity at Wave I. At Wave I, the mean age was 15.96 ± 0.11 years; mean sleep hours were 7.91 ± 0.04. At Waves I and II, respectively, 10.6 and 11.2% of adolescents were obese. Adjusted analyses suggest that the effect of shortened sleep duration in Wave I was not significantly predictive of obesity in Wave II (P < 0.218). Longitudinally, depression and TV ≥ 2 h per day at Wave I was associated with a higher risk of obesity at Wave II in adjusted analyses. Depressed adolescents were almost twice as likely to be obese (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.25-2.72); adolescents who watched TV ≥ 2 h per day were 37% more likely to be obese (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.09-1.72). Environmental factors including TV ≥ 2 h per day and depression were significantly associated with obesity; shortened sleep duration was not. Future longitudinal studies in adolescents are needed to determine whether timing of television watching directly influences sleep patterns and, ultimately, obesity.

  4. Predicting Future Improvements in Footracing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Joseph

    1980-01-01

    Three models to predict future world records for footraces are reviewed. The records for the mile run are presented with time and year given in linear, hyperbolic, and experiential relationships. (MP)

  5. Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

  6. Predicting the duration of emotional experience: two experience sampling studies.

    PubMed

    Verduyn, Philippe; Delvaux, Ellen; Van Coillie, Hermina; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Van Mechelen, Iven

    2009-02-01

    The authors present 2 studies to explain the variability in the duration of emotional experience. Participants were asked to report the duration of their fear, anger, joy, gratitude, and sadness episodes on a daily basis. Information was further collected with regard to potential predictor variables at 3 levels: trait predictors, episode predictors, and moment predictors. Discrete-time survival analyses revealed that, for all 5 emotions under study, the higher the importance of the emotion-eliciting situation and the higher the intensity of the emotion at onset, the longer the emotional experience lasts. Moreover, a reappearance, either physically or merely mentally, of the eliciting stimulus during the emotional episode extended the duration of the emotional experience as well. These findings display interesting links with predictions within N. H. Frijda's theory of emotion, with the phenomenon of reinstatement (as studied within the domain of learning psychology), and with the literature on rumination.

  7. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    PubMed

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy.

  8. Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2017-02-01

    This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

  9. Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

    PubMed

    Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2015-11-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected.

  10. Variability in Cumulative Habitual Sleep Duration Predicts Waking Functional Connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Khalsa, Sakh; Mayhew, Stephen D.; Przezdzik, Izabela; Wilson, Rebecca; Hale, Joanne; Goldstone, Aimee; Bagary, Manny; Bagshaw, Andrew P.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: We examined whether interindividual differences in habitual sleep patterns, quantified as the cumulative habitual total sleep time (cTST) over a 2-w period, were reflected in waking measurements of intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity (FC) between major nodes of three intrinsically connected networks (ICNs): default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), and central executive network (CEN). Methods: Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study using seed-based FC analysis combined with 14-d wrist actigraphy, sleep diaries, and subjective questionnaires (N = 33 healthy adults, mean age 34.3, standard deviation ± 11.6 y). Data were statistically analyzed using multiple linear regression. Fourteen consecutive days of wrist actigraphy in participant's home environment and fMRI scanning on day 14 at the Birmingham University Imaging Centre. Seed-based FC analysis on ICNs from resting-state fMRI data and multiple linear regression analysis performed for each ICN seed and target. cTST was used to predict FC (controlling for age). Results: cTST was specific predictor of intranetwork FC when the mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) region of the DMN was used as a seed for FC, with a positive correlation between FC and cTST observed. No significant relationship between FC and cTST was seen for any pair of nodes not including the MPFC. Internetwork FC between the DMN (MPFC) and SN (right anterior insula) was also predicted by cTST, with a negative correlation observed between FC and cTST. Conclusions: This study improves understanding of the relationship between intranetwork and internetwork functional connectivity of intrinsically connected networks (ICNs) in relation to habitual sleep quality and duration. The cumulative amount of sleep that participants achieved over a 14-d period was significantly predictive of intranetwork and inter-network functional connectivity of ICNs, an observation that may underlie the link

  11. BESS and its future prospect for polar long duration flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, A.; Abe, K.; Anraku, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Fujikawa, M.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Imori, M.; Izumi, K.; Maeno, T.; Makida, Y.; Matsui, N.; Matsumoto, H.; Matsunaga, H.; McDonald, F. B.; Mitchell, J.; Mitsui, T.; Moiseev, A.; Motoki, M.; Nishimura, J.; Nozaki, M.; Orito, S.; Ormes, J. F.; Righter, D.; Saeki, T.; Sanuki, T.; Sasaki, M.; Seo, E. S.; Shikaze, Y.; Sonoda, T.; Streitmatter, R.; Suzuki, J.; Tanaka, K.; Tanizaki, K.; Ueda, I.; Wang, J. Z.; Yajima, N.; Yamagami, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Yamaoka, H.; Yamato, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yoshimura, K.; BESS Collaboration

    The Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting Spectrometer, BESS, aims to study elementary particle/antiparticle phenomena in the early history of the Universe. The instrument has a unique feature of a thin superconducting solenoid magnet enabling a large geometrical acceptance with a horizontally cylindrical configuration. Seven balloon flights have been successfully carried out since 1993. More than 10 3 comic-ray antiproton have been unambiguously detected, and the energy spectrum has been measured with the characteristic peak at 2 GeV. The search for cosmic-ray antihelium brought the upper-limit of the antihelium/helium ratio down to < 10 -6. To extend the highly sensitive measurements, we are planning polar long duration flights in Antarctica focusing on the very low energy antiproton spectrum towards the solar-minimum in the next decade.

  12. Short sleep duration and obesity: mechanisms and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Zimberg, Ioná Zalcman; Dâmaso, Ana; Del Re, Mariana; Carneiro, Aline Millani; de Sá Souza, Helton; de Lira, Fábio Santos; Tufik, Sergio; de Mello, Marco Túlio

    2012-08-01

    A reduction of sleep time has become common over the last century, and growing evidence from both epidemiological and laboratory-based studies suggests sleep curtailment is a new risk factor for the development of obesity. On this basis, the present review examines the role of sleep curtailment in the metabolic and endocrine alterations, including decreased glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, increased evening concentrations of cortisol, increased levels of ghrelin, decreased levels of leptin and increased hunger and appetite. It will be discussed how sleep restriction may lead to increase in food intake and result in greater fatigue, which may favour decreased energy expenditure. Altogether, evidences point to a possible role of decreased sleep duration in the current epidemic of obesity and therefore present literature highlights the importance of getting enough good sleep for metabolic health. Many aspects still need to be clarified and intervention studies also need to be conducted.

  13. Radiation exposure predictions for short-duration stay Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Striepe, S A; Nealy, J E; Simonsen, L C

    1992-01-01

    The human radiation environment for several short-duration stay manned Mars missions is predicted using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, which was developed at NASA Langley Research Center. This program provides dose estimates for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large and ordinary solar proton flare events for various amounts of effective spacecraft shielding (both operational and storm shelter thicknesses) and a given time history of the spacecraft's heliocentric position. The results of this study show that most of the missions can survive the most recent large flares (if they were to occur at the missions' perihelion) if a 25 g/cm2 storm shelter is assumed. The dose predictions show that missions during solar minima (when solar flare activity is the lowest) are not necessarily the minimum dose cases, due to increased GCR contribution during this time period. The direct transfer mission studied has slightly lower doses than the outbound Venus swingby mission [on the order of 10-20 centi-Sieverts (cSv) lower], with the greatest dose differences for the assumed worst case scenario (when the large flares occur at perihelion). The GCR dose for a mission can be reduced by having the crew spend some fraction of its day nominally in the storm shelter (other than during flare events).

  14. Radiation exposure predictions for short-duration stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Nealy, John E.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

    1992-01-01

    The human radiation environment for several short-duration stay manned Mars missions is predicted using the Mission Radiation Calculation program, which was developed at NASA Langley Research Center. This program provides dose estimates for Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large and ordinary solar proton flare events for various amounts of effective spacecraft shielding and a given time history of the spacecraft's heliocentric position. The results of this study show that most of the missions can survive the most recent large flares if a 25 g/sq cm storm shelter is assumed. The dose predictions show that missions during solar minima are not necessarily the minimum dose cases, due to increased GCR contribution during this time period. The direct transfer mission studied has slightly lower doses than the outbound Venus swingby mission, with the greatest dose differences for the assumed worst case scenario. The GCR dose for a mission can be reduced by having the crew spend some fraction of its day nominally in the storm shelter.

  15. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis ...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-13-1-0408 5c...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT It is now well established that there is a preclinical period of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development that is

  16. Predicting the Future of ESL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashworth, Mary

    Influences in the classroom of English as a second language (ESL) are briefly reviewed as a preface to a discussion of the past, present, and future of ESL instruction in Canada. Ten influences on ESL's past are examined in terms of their effects on ESL teachers: international, national, social, political, economic, commercial, media,…

  17. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  18. Initial symptom burden predicts duration of symptoms after concussion★

    PubMed Central

    Meehan, William P.; O’Brien, Michael J.; Geminiani, Ellen; Mannix, Rebekah

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine which variables predict prolonged (>28 days) duration of symptoms after a concussion. Design We conducted a prospective cohort study of adult (>18yo) patients cared for in a specialty concussion clinic. Methods Symptoms were assessed using the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale (PCSS) developed at the 3rd International Conference on Concussion in Sports. Possible predictors including age, sex, loss of consciousness, amnesia, history of prior concussion, prior treatment for headaches, history of migraines, and family history of concussions, were measured by self-report. We recorded a PCSS score at each clinical visit and defined time to symptom resolution as the number of days between the date of injury and date of last symptoms. Results Of 64 adult patients included in the study, 53.3% were male; 20.3% reported experiencing a loss of consciousness at the time of injury while 23.4% reported amnesia. Patients ranged in age from 18 to 27 years (mean 21 ± 2 years). Most concussions (92.2%) occurred during sports. The mean initial PCSS score for those suffering symptoms for longer than 28 days was significantly higher than those who symptoms resolved within 28 days (42.5 vs. 19.2, p < 0.01). Of all potential predictor variables, only the initial PCSS score was independently associated with the odds of symptoms lasting longer than 28 days (aOR 1.037; 95% CI 1.011, 1.063). Conclusions Among adult patients with concussions, those with a higher symptom burden after injury have an increased odds of suffering from prolonged symptoms. Other potential predictor variables are not associated with the risk of prolonged recovery. PMID:26718812

  19. The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

    2009-07-01

    Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting

  20. Historical statistics and future changes in long-duration blocking highs in key regions of Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Ye, Peilong; Pu, Zhaoxia; Feng, Juan; Ma, Baisheng; Wang, Jinyan

    2017-03-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data and 13 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study focuses on historical statistics and future change in blocking over key regions (Urals, Baikal, and Okhotsk regions) in Eurasia. The statistical characteristic using NNR data shows that short-duration and long-duration blocking highs are 75 and 25% of the total, respectively. It is also shown that frequency of blocking highs presents a decreased trend in Eurasia during 1956-2006, except blocking highs in summer in Baikal region, long-duration blocking highs in summer, and short-duration blocking highs in winter in Okhotsk region. Compared with NNR, the frequency of blocking highs is underestimated in Eurasia by CMIP5 models, except these with long-duration in the Baikal and Okhotsk regions. Most of the CMIP5 models can reproduce the historical trend of blocking highs over Eurasia during 1956-2005. In addition, projections show that the future change of long-duration blocking highs in Eurasia is not always consistent with that in the whole Northern Hemisphere. The results of the multiple models ensemble (MME) suggest that long-duration blocking highs in the Urals will significantly increase by 0.3 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the wintertime. In the summertime, the frequency fluctuates with little change. In Okhotsk, long-duration blocking highs will increase by 0.23 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) in the wintertime (summertime) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, long-duration blocking high frequency will remain the same, and the decreasing trend in the wintertime and the increasing trend (0.32 times/10 years) in the summertime will even accelerate over the trends in the twentieth century.

  1. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-02-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  2. Memory, Imagination, and Predicting the Future

    PubMed Central

    Mullally, Sinéad L.

    2014-01-01

    On the face of it, memory, imagination, and prediction seem to be distinct cognitive functions. However, metacognitive, cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging evidence is emerging that they are not, suggesting intimate links in their underlying processes. Here, we explore these empirical findings and the evolving theoretical frameworks that seek to explain how a common neural system supports our recollection of times past, imagination, and our attempts to predict the future. PMID:23846418

  3. Tracking the Mind during Reading: The Influence of Past, Present, and Future Words on Fixation Durations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kliegl, Reinhold; Nuthmann, Antje; Engbert, Ralf

    2006-01-01

    Reading requires the orchestration of visual, attentional, language-related, and oculomotor processing constraints. This study replicates previous effects of frequency, predictability, and length of fixated words on fixation durations in natural reading and demonstrates new effects of these variables related to 144 sentences. Such evidence for…

  4. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    SciTech Connect

    Striepe, S.A.; Simonsen, L.C.; Nealy, J.E.

    1994-04-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21(sup st) century. Both minimum energy and fast transfer missions are evaluated and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the Sun. All of the fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30% less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in an approximate 10% reduction in the total mission dose. 18 refs.

  5. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

    1994-01-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21(sup st) century. Both minimum energy and fast transfer missions are evaluated and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the Sun. All of the fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30% less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in an approximate 10% reduction in the total mission dose.

  6. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

    1992-01-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21st century. Both long-fast and minimum energy transfer missions are evaluated, and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the sun. All of the long-fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30 percent less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in significantly lower total doses.

  7. Premenstrual depression predicts future major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Graze, K K; Nee, J; Endicott, J

    1990-02-01

    To assess the power of premenstrual changes as a risk factor for future major depressive disorder (MDD), we conducted a follow-up study of 36 women who had volunteered for menstrual cycle studies. Scores on the depressive subscale of the Premenstrual Assessment Form (PAF) at initial evaluation were found to be significantly correlated (r = 0.35) with the occurrence of MDD during the follow-up period. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that the PAF scores had predictive value above and beyond 2 known risk factors for MDD, family history of depression and prior personal history of depression. The Premenstrual Change Index, a score derived from prospective daily self-ratings of severity of dysphoric symptoms, was also correlated with interval MDD, but did not enhance the predictive power of the PAF score. We conclude that the assessment of premenstrual depression has validity in identifying women at risk for future MDD, even when a retrospective instrument, PAF, is utilized for such assessment.

  8. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  9. Surgical Duration Estimation via Data Mining and Predictive Modeling: A Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, N.; Sir, M.Y.; Jankowski, C.J.; Pasupathy, K.S.

    2015-01-01

    Operating rooms (ORs) are one of the most expensive and profitable resources within a hospital system. OR managers strive to utilize these resources in the best possible manner. Traditionally, surgery durations are estimated using a moving average adjusted by the scheduler (adjusted system prediction or ASP). Other methods based on distributions, regression and data mining have also been proposed. To overcome difficulties with numerous procedure types and lack of sufficient sample size, and avoid distributional assumptions, the main objective is to develop a hybrid method of duration prediction and demonstrate using a case study. PMID:26958199

  10. Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heller, Rene; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  11. Predictions of Flow Duration Curve Shifts Due to Anthropogenic and Climatic Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, N. F.; Kroll, C. N.; Endreny, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    Methods are needed to understand and predict streamflows in systems undergoing anthropogenic and climatic alteration. This study is motivated by a need to develop methods to accurately estimate historical and future flow regimes of the Delaware River to inform management decisions for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon). Many streamflow regimes in this system have undergone substantial alteration within the past 100 years. Here, flow duration curves (FDCs), a common hydrologic tool used to assess flow regimes, are created and examined at 145 Delaware River Basin catchments. These catchments have experienced various hydrologic alterations, including land use changes, water withdrawals, and river regulation due to dams and reservoirs. Linear regression models are developed for various percentile flows across a FDC. These models use watershed characteristics that describe observed flow regimes in altered as well as unaltered systems. The characteristics that have the most significant influence on the shape of the FDCs are then identified and isolated as descriptors of the alteration. Once these models are developed to include these key variables, given a specific alteration (e.g. fresh water withdrawals, change in annual precipitation, etc.), a new flow regime can be estimated. Preliminary results indicate that certain watershed characteristics related to alteration (e.g. magnitude of land fragmentation, water withdrawals, hydrologic disturbance index) are significant in our models and influence FDC patterns. The results of this study may prove to have broader applications in regards to water resources management as the methods developed here may serve as a predictive tool as human interference and climatic changes continue to alter flow regimes.

  12. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  13. Autoregressive conditional duration as a model for financial market crashes prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pyrlik, Vladimir

    2013-12-01

    There is an increasing number of studies showing that financial market crashes can be detected and predicted. The main aim of the research was to develop a technique for crashes prediction based on the analysis of durations between sequent crashes of a certain magnitude of Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have found significant autocorrelation in the series of durations between sequent crashes and suggest autoregressive conditional duration models (ACD) to forecast the crashes. We apply the rolling intervals technique in the sample of more than 400 DJIA crashes in 1896-2011 and repeatedly use the data on 100 sequent crashes to estimate a family of ACD models and calculate forecasts of the one following crash. It appears that the ACD models provide significant predictive power when combined with the inter-event waiting time technique. This suggests that despite the high quality of retrospective predictions, using the technique for real-time forecasting seems rather ineffective, as in the case of every particular crash the specification of the ACD model, which would provide the best quality prediction, is rather hard to identify.

  14. The Use of One-Sample Prediction Intervals for Estimating CO2 Scrubber Canister Durations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-01

    testing) that describe the characteristics of carbon dioxide absorbent canisters in closed - and semiclosed- circuit UBAs ( rebreathers ). The...CONCLUSIONS As described in engineering statistics texts, the use of one-sample prediction intervals is profitably applied to the testing of closed - circuit ...Duration Limits for Closed - Circuit Underwater Breathing Apparatus, NEDU TR 2-99, Navy Experimental Diving Unit, April 1999. 2. J. Clarke, K

  15. Predictability Effects on Durations of Content and Function Words in Conversational English

    SciTech Connect

    Bell, Alan; Brenier, Jason; Gregory, Michelle L.; girand, cynthia; Jurafsky, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Content and function word duration are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Regression analyses of conversational speech show that content words are shorter when they are more frequent, but function words are not. Repeated content words are shorter, but function words are not. Furthermore, function words have shorter pronunciations, after controlling for frequency and predictability. both content and function words are strongly affected by predictability from the word following them, and only very frequent function words show sensitivity to predictability from the preceding word. The results support the view that content and function words are accessed by different production mechanisms. We argue that words’ form differences due to frequency or repetition stem from their faster or slower lexical access, mediated by a general mechanism that coordinates the pace of higher-level planning and the execution of the articulatory plan.

  16. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.

    2014-09-01

    An empirical period-of-record flow-duration curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. In many practical applications one has to construct FDCs in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present an application strategy of top-kriging, which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting FDCs in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.); here the procedure is used to predict the entire curve in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. In particular, we propose to standardise empirical FDCs by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation × the drainage area) and to compute the overall negative deviation of the curves from this reference value. We then propose to use these values, which we term total negative deviation (TND), for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We focus on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in central Italy, and we quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique under various operational conditions through an extensive cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. The cross-validation points out that top-kriging is a reliable approach for predicting FDCs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures ranging from 0.85 to 0.96 (depending on the model settings) very low biases over the entire duration range, and an enhanced representation of the low-flow regime relative to other regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region.

  17. Applications Determine the Best Model to Predict Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flow duration curves (FDCs) are an important tool for watershed management and their prediction in ungauged catchments is a challenging problem. Selecting the most appropriate model for prediction the FDC is itself a challenge that determines how theoretical improvements in prediction are transferred into engineering practice. Available performance metrics (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient, error on flow moments) typically consider the aggregated ability of the model to predict all streamflow quantiles. These metrics may be inappropriate for model selection in practice because watershed management decisions are typically driven by a limited number of streamflow quantiles that may be poorly represented by an aggregate performance metric. As an illustrative case study, the performance of three distinct FDC prediction approaches -- graphical, statistical and process-based -- are compared for ungauged streams in Nepal. The practical application of these predictions is to inform the design of run-of-river hydropower plants. The process-based approach provides the best prediction of the observed flow distribution and results in significantly higher Nash coefficients. However, the graphical approach provides the best prediction of the flow quantiles that are most relevant for hydropower design and reduces the design error caused by streamflow estimation. To assist in an application driven model selection process, we propose a novel model selection framework.

  18. Regional prediction of flow-duration curves using a three-dimensional kriging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellarin, Attilio

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows over a number of years for a given basin is often termed long-term flow-duration curve (FDC). This analysis addresses the problem of predicting FDCs in ungauged basins by means of a three-dimensional (3D) kriging interpolation of empirical FDCs. A three-dimensional xyz space is defined to perform the interpolation, where x and y are functions of physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors, while z represents the streamflow duration in terms of standard-normal variate. The 3D interpolation technique is applied to several catchments located in two broad geographical regions of Northern (Alpine catchments) and Central (Apenninic catchments) Italy, for which several geomorphological and climatic descriptors are available. An extensive cross-validation procedure is used to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique in both case studies, and to compare it to traditional regionalization procedures. The cross-validation points out that 3D kriging is a reliable and robust approach, which performs as well as or better than traditional regional models. In particular the approach significantly outperforms conventional approaches for the prediction of low-flows (i.e. streamflows associated with high durations) in ungauged basins.

  19. Predicting Breastfeeding Duration Related to Maternal Attitudes in a Taiwanese Sample

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Yen-Ju; McGrath, Jacqueline M.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine maternal attitudes and sociodemographic variables associated with Taiwanese mothers’ continuation of breastfeeding at 6 weeks postpartum. A sample of 140 in-hospital breastfeeding mothers was recruited in Taiwan. Participants completed the Iowa Infant Feeding Attitude Scale (IIFAS) in the hospital prior to discharge. Postdischarge participants were contacted by telephone at 3 and 6 weeks postpartum to obtain information regarding their feeding method and duration. Findings revealed that in-hospital maternal breastfeeding attitudes are predictive of breastfeeding duration. Insufficient milk supply was the reason most often given for discontinuing breastfeeding. Women’s husband/partner was found to be the main source of breastfeeding support. We recommend health-care professionals add the IIFAS to their assessment to identify mothers at high risk for discontinuing breastfeeding and to develop and better evaluate breastfeeding promotion programs. PMID:22942621

  20. Predicting Future Clinical Adjustment from Treatment Outcome and Process Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patterson, G. R.; Forgatch, Marion S.

    1995-01-01

    Issues related to the use of outcome and process data from the treatment of antisocial children to predict future childhood adjustment were examined through a study of 69 children. Data supported the hypothesis that measures of processes thought to produce changes in child behavior would serve to predict future adjustment. (SLD)

  1. Consistent Predictions of Future Forest Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We examined empirical and model based estimates of current and future forest mortality of conifers in the northern hemisphere. Consistent water potential thresholds were found that resulted in mortality of our case study species, pinon pine and one-seed juniper. Extending these results with IPCC climate scenarios suggests that most existing trees in this region (SW USA) will be dead by 2050. Further, independent estimates of future mortality for the entire coniferous biome suggest widespread mortality by 2100. The validity and assumptions and implications of these results are discussed.

  2. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

    2014-05-01

    An empirical period-of-record Flow-Duration Curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. FDCs have always attracted a great deal of interest in engineering applications because of their ability to provide a simple yet comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability of streamflows in a river basin, from floods to low-flows. Nevertheless, in many practical applications one has to construct FDC in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present in this study an application strategy of Topological kriging (or Top-kriging), which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting flow-duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of Top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.). In this study Top-kriging is used to predict FDCs in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. Our study focuses on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in Central Italy, for which daily streamflow series with length from 5 to 40 years are available, together with information on climate referring to the same time-span of each daily streamflow sequence. Empirical FDCs are standardised by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation times the catchment drainage area) and the overall deviation of the curves from this reference value is then used for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We performed an extensive leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique, and to compare it to traditional regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region. The cross-validation points

  3. "Megatrends" and Knowledge Gaps: Future Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaziano, Cecilie

    The distribution of knowledge in society tends to parallel the distribution of other social and economic resources. Currently four major socioeconomic trends point not only to widened knowledge gaps in the future but also to greater divisions between higher and lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups. First, a long-term trend toward a more…

  4. Forest tree seedlings may suffer from predicted future winters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domisch, Timo; Repo, Tapani; Martz, Françoise; Rautio, Pasi

    2016-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased precipitation and air temperatures, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter, spring and autumn. However, soil temperatures are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the insulating snow cover. Warm periods during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles and flooding, which again can result in the formation of ice layers, affecting soil properties, soil gas concentrations and the survival of tree seedlings. We conducted two laboratory experiments of 20 weeks duration each, simulating winter, spring and early summer, and imposed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) or downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) seedlings to four different winter scenarios: (1) ambient snow cover, (2) compressed snow and ice encasement, (3) frozen flood and (4) no snow. We estimated the stress that the seedlings experienced by means of gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence and determining above- and belowground biomass and carbohydrate contents, as well as measuring soil oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations. The seedlings in the snow and compressed snow treatments survived until the end of the experiments, although only those covered with an ambient snow cover showed normal height growth and typical carbohydrate contents. The seedlings in the other treatments showed symptoms of dieback already during early spring and had almost completely died at the end of the experiment. Our results suggest the crucial significance of the protective snow cover, and that a missing soil cover or soil hypoxia and anoxia during winter can be lethal for seedlings, and that respiratory losses and winter desiccation of aboveground organs can further lead to the death of tree seedlings.

  5. The UT 7/8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event and Future Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benecchi, S. D.; Noll, K. S.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W. M.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; Chanover, N.

    2013-01-01

    A superior mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 h on UT 7/8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four different telescope facilities; it started approximately 1.5 h earlier than anticipated, the duration was approximately 9.5 h (about 10% longer than predicted), and was slightly less deep than predicted. It is the first full event observed for a comparably sized binary Kuiper Belt object. We provide predictions for future events refined by this and other partial mutual event observations obtained since the mutual event season began.

  6. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  7. Prediction of regional flow duration curves: geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Farmer, W. H.; Castellarin, A.; Archfield, S. A.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs in ungauged basins is of great importance in those locations characterized by sparse, or more often missing, streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two approaches which are capable of predicting an FDC in ungauged basins. An adaptation of the geostatistical method Top-kriging employs a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardized for a reference streamflow value. Weights are the result of the application of Top-kriging over a point index which, empirically, expresses the similarity between curves. Dimensional FDCs are then reconstructed developing a similar Top-kriging-based model capable of predicting the reference streamflow in the same sites. The second method is based on regional multiple linear regressions and is one of the most common method for prediction of FDCs in ungauged sites. Comparisons of these two methods are made at 182, mostly unregulated, river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform very similarly throughout flow-regimes, showing average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.566 and 0.662 in natural scale, while 0.883 and 0.829 in log-transformed scale, for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. However, some complementarities are shown in the very low-flow regime, i.e. duration greater than 0.95, where the two models highlight different behaviors whether considering natural or log-transformed streamflows.

  8. Parathyroid score can predict the duration of required calcium supplementation after total thyroidectomy

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Soo Young; Lee, Yong Sang; Kim, Seok-Mo; Chang, Hang-Seok; Park, Cheong Soo

    2017-01-01

    Background Postoperative hypoparathyroidism is the most common complication after total thyroidectomy, owing to unintentional injury or decreased blood flow to the parathyroid glands. Prediction of postoperative hypoparathyroidism would be helpful for surgeons to manage postoperative hypocalcemia. In this study, we scored the discoloration of the parathyroid glands using a new parathyroid scoring system and evaluated the correlation between the parathyroid score and duration of required calcium supplementation after total thyroidectomy. Methods A total of 316 patients undergoing total thyroidectomy between November 2009 and April 2010 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Parathyroid scoring was performed by one experienced surgeon. The status of each of the 4 parathyroid glands was classified as normal color (3 points), slightly discolored (2 points), dark discoloration (1 point), or loss of the gland (0 points), resulting in possible total scores of 0–12. Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), serum calcium, and ionized calcium concentrations were measured at 2 hours, 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year after surgery. Patients were also divided into three groups based on the duration of required calcium supplementation: no required supplementation (n = 260, 82.3%), required supplementation for <6 months (n = 38, 12%), and required supplementation for ≥6 months (n = 18, 5.75%). Results Parathyroid scores were positively correlated with ionized PTH concentrations at 2 hours (r = 0.053, p < 0.001), 2 weeks (r = 0.056, p < 0.001), 3 months (r = 0.032, p<0.001), 6 months (r = 0.072, p < 0.001), and 1 year (r = 0.071, p < 0.001) after thyroidectomy. Parathyroid scores were significantly and inversely associated with the duration of required calcium supplementation (p = 0.001). Conclusions Parathyroid scores at the end of surgery might be helpful for predicting the degree of postoperative hypocalcemia after total thyroidetomy. PMID:28350886

  9. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  10. Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients.

    PubMed

    Horwitz, Adam G; Czyz, Ewa K; King, Cheryl A

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15 to 24 years (M=19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency services during a 9-month period. These patients' medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Socioeconomic status, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for male patients but not female). Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for male patients.

  11. Predicting future discoveries from current scientific literature.

    PubMed

    Petrič, Ingrid; Cestnik, Bojan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge discovery in biomedicine is a time-consuming process starting from the basic research, through preclinical testing, towards possible clinical applications. Crossing of conceptual boundaries is often needed for groundbreaking biomedical research that generates highly inventive discoveries. We demonstrate the ability of a creative literature mining method to advance valuable new discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. When emerging ideas from scientific literature are put together as fragments of knowledge in a systematic way, they may lead to original, sometimes surprising, research findings. If enough scientific evidence is already published for the association of such findings, they can be considered as scientific hypotheses. In this chapter, we describe a method for the computer-aided generation of such hypotheses based on the existing scientific literature. Our literature-based discovery of NF-kappaB with its possible connections to autism was recently approved by scientific community, which confirms the ability of our literature mining methodology to accelerate future discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature.

  12. Predicting UV sky for future UV missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safonova, M.; Mohan, R.; Sreejith, A. G.; Murthy, Jayant

    2013-02-01

    Software simulators are now widely used in all areas of science, especially in application to astronomical missions: from instrument design to mission planning, and to data interpretation. We present a simulator to model the diffuse ultraviolet sky, where the different contributors are separately calculated and added together to produce a sky image of the size specified by the instrument requirements. Each of the contributors to the background, instrumental dark current, airglow, zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light, depends on different factors. Airglow is dependent on the time of day; zodiacal light depends on the time of year, angle from the Sun and from the ecliptic; diffuse UV emission depends on the line of sight. To provide a full description of the sky along any line of sight, we have also added stars. The UV background light can dominate in many areas of the sky and severely limit viewing directions due to overbrightness. The simulator, available as a downloadable package and as a web-based tool, can be applied to preparation of real space missions and instruments. For demonstration, we present the example use for the two near-future UV missions: UVIT instrument on the Indian Astrosat mission and a new proposed wide-field (∼1000 square degrees) transient explorer satellite.

  13. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. The researchers from MSFC and NSSTC's solar physics group develop instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic field and the impact it has on Earth's space environment. This photograph shows the Solar Vector Magnetograph and Dr. Mona Hagyard of MSFC, the director of the observatory who leads the development, operation and research program of the Solar Vector Magnetograph.

  14. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. Photographed are a group of contributing researchers in front of the Solar Vector Magnetograph at MSFC. The researchers are part of NSSTC's solar physics group, which develops instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic fields and the impact they have on Earth's space environment.

  15. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and university scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are watching the Sun in an effort to better predict space weather - blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun that impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. Filled by charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, the spherical comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's surface in the sunward direction and more in other directions. This image illustrates the Sun-Earth cornection. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. By using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at MSFC, scientists are learning what signs to look for as indicators of potential severe space weather.

  16. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  17. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Cai, Ting; Mi, Zhongyuan; Georgopoulos, Panos

    2015-02-01

    Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5%-30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0-6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.

  18. Predicting streamflows in snowmelt-driven watersheds using the flow duration curve method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kaluarachchi, J.

    2014-05-01

    Predicting streamflows in snow-fed watersheds in the Western United States is important for water allocation. Since many of these watersheds are heavily regulated through canal networks and reservoirs, predicting expected natural flows and therefore water availability under limited data is always a challenge. This study investigates the applicability of the flow duration curve (FDC) method for predicting natural flows in gauged and regulated snow-fed watersheds. Point snow observations, air temperature, precipitation, and snow water equivalent were used to simulate the snowmelt process with the SNOW-17 model, and extended to streamflow simulation using the FDC method with a modified current precipitation index. For regulated watersheds, a parametric regional FDC method was applied to reconstruct natural flow. For comparison, a simplified tank model was used considering both lumped and semi-distributed approaches. The proximity regionalization method was used to simulate streamflows in the regulated watersheds with the tank model. The results showed that the FDC method is capable of producing satisfactory natural flow estimates in gauged watersheds when high correlation exists between current precipitation index and streamflow. For regulated watersheds, the regional FDC method produced acceptable river diversion estimates, but it seemed to have more uncertainty due to less robustness of the FDC method. In spite of its simplicity, the FDC method is a practical approach with less computational burden for studies with minimal data availability.

  19. 'It is Time to Prepare the Next patient' Real-Time Prediction of Procedure Duration in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomies.

    PubMed

    Guédon, Annetje C P; Paalvast, M; Meeuwsen, F C; Tax, D M J; van Dijke, A P; Wauben, L S G L; van der Elst, M; Dankelman, J; van den Dobbelsteen, J J

    2016-12-01

    Operating Room (OR) scheduling is crucial to allow efficient use of ORs. Currently, the predicted durations of surgical procedures are unreliable and the OR schedulers have to follow the progress of the procedures in order to update the daily planning accordingly. The OR schedulers often acquire the needed information through verbal communication with the OR staff, which causes undesired interruptions of the surgical process. The aim of this study was to develop a system that predicts in real-time the remaining procedure duration and to test this prediction system for reliability and usability in an OR. The prediction system was based on the activation pattern of one single piece of equipment, the electrosurgical device. The prediction system was tested during 21 laparoscopic cholecystectomies, in which the activation of the electrosurgical device was recorded and processed in real-time using pattern recognition methods. The remaining surgical procedure duration was estimated and the optimal timing to prepare the next patient for surgery was communicated to the OR staff. The mean absolute error was smaller for the prediction system (14 min) than for the OR staff (19 min). The OR staff doubted whether the prediction system could take all relevant factors into account but were positive about its potential to shorten waiting times for patients. The prediction system is a promising tool to automatically and objectively predict the remaining procedure duration, and thereby achieve optimal OR scheduling and streamline the patient flow from the nursing department to the OR.

  20. Pre-operative function, motivation and duration of symptoms predict sporting participation after total hip replacement.

    PubMed

    Ollivier, M; Frey, S; Parratte, S; Flecher, X; Argenson, J N

    2014-08-01

    There is little in the literature on the level of participation in sports which patients undertake after total hip replacement (THR). Our aims in this study were to determine first, the level of sporting activity, second, the predictive factors for returning to sporting activity, and third, the correlation between participation in sports and satisfaction after THR. We retrospectively identified 815 patients who had undergone THR between 1995 and 2005. All were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding their sporting activity. A total of 571 patients (71%) met the inclusion criteria and completed the evaluation. At a mean follow-up of 9.8 years (sd 2.9), 366 patients (64%) returned to sporting activity as defined by a University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) score of > 5. The main reasons that patients had for refraining from sports were fear of dislocation (65; 31.6%), avoiding wear (52; 25.4%), and the recommendation of the surgeon (34; 16.6%). There was a significant relationship between higher post-operative participation in sport in those patients with a higher pre-operative Harris hip score (HHS) (p = 0.0074), motivation to participate in sporting activities (p = 0.00022) and a shorter duration of symptoms (p = 0.0034). Finally, there was a correlation between age (p = 0.00013), UCLA score (p = 0.012) and pre-operative HHS (p = 0.00091) and satisfaction. In conclusion, we found that most patients participate in sporting activity after THR, regardless of the advice of their surgeon, and that there is a correlation between the level of participation and pre-operative function, motivation, duration of symptoms and post-operative satisfaction.

  1. Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.; Farassat, F.

    1992-01-01

    The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

  2. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  3. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    PubMed

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  4. Lowering social security's duration-of-marriage requirement: distributional effects for future female retirees.

    PubMed

    Tamborini, Christopher R; Whitman, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    A number of alternatives to Social Security's auxiliary benefit system have been proposed in the context of changes in American family and work patterns. This article focuses on one modification therein-lowering the 10-year duration-of-marriage requirement for divorced spouses. Using a powerful microsimulation model (MINT), we examine the distributional effects of extending spouse and survivor benefit eligibility to 5- and 7-year marriages ending in divorce among female retirees in 2030, a population largely comprised of baby boomers. Results show that the options would increase benefits for a small share of female retirees, around 2 to 4%, and would not affect the vast majority of low-income divorced older women. However, of those affected, the options would substantially increase benefits and lower incidence of poverty and near poor. Low-income divorced retirees with marriages between 5 and 9 years in length and a deceased former spouse face the greatest potential gains.

  5. [Sleep duration and metabolism].

    PubMed

    Viot-Blanc, V

    2015-12-01

    Sleep duration has gradually diminished during the last decade while obesity and type 2 diabetes have become epidemics. Experimental sleep curtailment leads to increased appetite, hormonal disturbances and, especially, insulin resistance. Numerous epidemiological studies have therefore examined whether habitual short sleep is associated with obesity and type 2 diabetes. A large majority of cross-sectional studies have confirmed an association between short, and also long sleep duration and obesity in adults more than in the elderly. Short sleep is strongly associated to obesity in children and adolescents. Prospective studies, including studies in children, are not conclusive with regard to the effect of short sleep on the incidence of obesity. Both short and long sleep durations are associated with diabetes, but only short sleep duration seems predictive of future diabetes. Insomnia seems to be a strong contributor to short sleep duration but the association of insomnia with obesity is not clear. Insomnia is associated with type 2 diabetes and also predictive of a higher incidence. Other studies have shown that short sleep duration and insomnia are associated with, and sometime predictive of, other components of the metabolic syndrome, especially hypertension and the risk of coronary disease. The treatment of short sleep duration and insomnia with regard to their effects on the metabolic syndrome merits further study.

  6. The Future of Seizure Prediction and Intervention: Closing the loop

    PubMed Central

    Nagaraj, Vivek; Lee, Steven; Krook-Magnuson, Esther; Soltesz, Ivan; Benquet, Pascal; Irazoqui, Pedro; Netoff, Theoden

    2014-01-01

    The ultimate goal of epilepsy therapies is to provide seizure control for all patients while eliminating side effects. Improved specificity of intervention through on-demand approaches may overcome many of the limitations of current intervention strategies. This article reviews progress in seizure prediction and detection, potential new therapies to provide improved specificity, and devices to achieve these ends. Specifically, we discuss 1) potential signal modalities and algorithms for seizure detection and prediction, 2) closed-loop intervention approaches, and 3) hardware for implementing these algorithms and interventions. Seizure prediction and therapies maximize efficacy while minimizing side-effects through improved specificity may represent the future of epilepsy treatments. PMID:26035672

  7. Children's Predictions of Future Perceptual Experiences: Temporal Reasoning and Phenomenology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Patrick; Russell, James

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the development and cognitive correlates of envisioning future experiences in 3.5- to 6.5-year old children across 2 experiments, both of which involved toy trains traveling along a track. In the first, children were asked to predict the direction of train travel and color of train side, as it would be seen through an arch.…

  8. Trajectory Pattern Mining Using Sequential Pattern Mining and K-Means for Predicting Future Location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsar, G.; Akbar, S.

    2017-01-01

    Sequential pattern mining is a method used to find patterns while concerning the sequence of an item set. Sequential pattern mining can be used to find trajectory patterns in moving object data. To implement it in the real life, the spatial attribute of the data needs to be generalized/grouped. In this paper, K-Means is used to group the spatial attribute. In order to group the spatial attribute, the temporal attribute is also considered to see how the patterns are related to time. The resulting trajectory patterns are then used to visualize the habit of the moving object. Therefore, trajectory patterns are used as the reference in this paper to predict the future location of the object. Predicting the future location of the object is performed using the movement history of the object. Result of this research is trajectory pattern which repeat at certain time duration according to its data characteristics.

  9. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  10. Predicting Future Years of Life, Health, and Functional Ability

    PubMed Central

    Diehr, Paula; Diehr, Michael; Arnold, Alice; Yee, Laura M.; Odden, Michelle C.; Hirsch, Calvin H; Thielke, Stephen; Psaty, Bruce M.; Johnson, W. Craig; Kizer, MD, Jorge R.; Newman, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To create personalized estimates of future health and ability status for older adults. Method: Data came from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a large longitudinal study. Outcomes included years of life, years of healthy life (based on self-rated health), years of able life (based on activities of daily living), and years of healthy and able life. We developed regression estimates using the demographic and health characteristics that best predicted the four outcomes. Internal and external validity were assessed. Results: A prediction equation based on 11 variables accounted for about 40% of the variability for each outcome. Internal validity was excellent, and external validity was satisfactory. The resulting CHS Healthy Life Calculator (CHSHLC) is available at http://healthylifecalculator.org. Conclusion: CHSHLC provides a well-documented estimate of future years of healthy and able life for older adults, who may use it in planning for the future. PMID:28138467

  11. Past makes future: role of pFC in prediction.

    PubMed

    Fuster, Joaquín M; Bressler, Steven L

    2015-04-01

    The pFC enables the essential human capacities for predicting future events and preadapting to them. These capacities rest on both the structure and dynamics of the human pFC. Structurally, pFC, together with posterior association cortex, is at the highest hierarchical level of cortical organization, harboring neural networks that represent complex goal-directed actions. Dynamically, pFC is at the highest level of the perception-action cycle, the circular processing loop through the cortex that interfaces the organism with the environment in the pursuit of goals. In its predictive and preadaptive roles, pFC supports cognitive functions that are critical for the temporal organization of future behavior, including planning, attentional set, working memory, decision-making, and error monitoring. These functions have a common future perspective and are dynamically intertwined in goal-directed action. They all utilize the same neural infrastructure: a vast array of widely distributed, overlapping, and interactive cortical networks of personal memory and semantic knowledge, named cognits, which are formed by synaptic reinforcement in learning and memory acquisition. From this cortex-wide reservoir of memory and knowledge, pFC generates purposeful, goal-directed actions that are preadapted to predicted future events.

  12. Short sleep duration predicts risk of metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Xi, Bo; He, Dan; Zhang, Min; Xue, Jian; Zhou, Donghao

    2014-08-01

    Sleep duration has been suggested to play a key role in the development of metabolic syndrome (MS). However, the results have been inconsistent. The objective of this study was to clarify the association between sleep duration and MS risk. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible publications. Pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated using random- or fixed-model. A total of 12 studies (18,720 MS cases and 70,833 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. Short sleep duration was significantly associated with increased risk of MS (OR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.09-1.47, p = 0.002). Long sleep duration was not associated with increased risk of MS (OR = 1.07, 95%CI = 0.87-1.32, p = 0.535). Similar results were found in both men and women. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results and no publication bias was detected. The present meta-analysis suggests that short rather than long sleep duration is significantly associated with risk of MS. Large-scale well-design prospective studies are required to further investigate the association between sleep duration and MS risk.

  13. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  14. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Evolving networks-Using past structure to predict the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Ke-ke; Yan, Wei-sheng; Small, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies on link prediction have focused on using common neighbors to predict the existence of links between pairs of nodes. More broadly, research into the structural properties of evolving temporal networks and temporal link prediction methods have recently attracted increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, we examine the use of links between a pair of nodes to predict their common neighbors and analyze the relationship between the weight and the structure in static networks, evolving networks, and in the corresponding randomized networks. We propose both new unweighted and weighted prediction methods and use six kinds of real networks to test our algorithms. In unweighted networks, we find that if a pair of nodes connect to each other in the current network, they will have a higher probability to connect common nodes both in the current and the future networks-and the probability will decrease with the increase of the number of neighbors. Furthermore, we find that the original networks have their particular structure and statistical characteristics which benefit link prediction. In weighted networks, the prediction algorithm performance of networks which are dominated by human factors decrease with the decrease of weight and are in general better in static networks. Furthermore, we find that geographical position and link weight both have significant influence on the transport network. Moreover, the evolving financial network has the lowest predictability. In addition, we find that the structure of non-social networks has more robustness than social networks. The structure of engineering networks has both best predictability and also robustness.

  17. Advancing the Oxygen Generation Assembly Design to Increase Reliability and Reduce Costs for a Future Long Duration Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takada, Kevin C.; Ghariani, Ahmed E.; Van Keuren,

    2015-01-01

    The state-of-the-art Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) has been reliably producing breathing oxygen for the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) for over eight years. Lessons learned from operating the ISS OGA have led to proposing incremental improvements to advance the baseline design for use in a future long duration mission. These improvements are intended to reduce system weight, crew maintenance time and resupply mass from Earth while increasing reliability. The proposed improvements include replacing the cell stack membrane material, deleting the nitrogen purge equipment, replacing the hydrogen sensors, deleting the wastewater interface, replacing the hydrogen dome and redesigning the cell stack power supply. The development work to date will be discussed and forward work will be outlined. Additionally, a redesigned system architecture will be proposed.

  18. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

    2012-01-01

    Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

  19. Neural pattern change during encoding of a narrative predicts retrospective duration estimates

    PubMed Central

    Lositsky, Olga; Chen, Janice; Toker, Daniel; Honey, Christopher J; Shvartsman, Michael; Poppenk, Jordan L; Hasson, Uri; Norman, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    What mechanisms support our ability to estimate durations on the order of minutes? Behavioral studies in humans have shown that changes in contextual features lead to overestimation of past durations. Based on evidence that the medial temporal lobes and prefrontal cortex represent contextual features, we related the degree of fMRI pattern change in these regions with people’s subsequent duration estimates. After listening to a radio story in the scanner, participants were asked how much time had elapsed between pairs of clips from the story. Our ROI analyses found that duration estimates were correlated with the neural pattern distance between two clips at encoding in the right entorhinal cortex. Moreover, whole-brain searchlight analyses revealed a cluster spanning the right anterior temporal lobe. Our findings provide convergent support for the hypothesis that retrospective time judgments are driven by 'drift' in contextual representations supported by these regions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16070.001 PMID:27801645

  20. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematical performance among children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Green, Chloe T; Bunge, Silvia A; Briones Chiongbian, Victoria; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21years across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's previous cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; age, vocabulary, and spatial skills were not significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary school and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems.

  1. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, Jing; Mahmassani, Hani S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  2. Predicting Schedule Duration for Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation to Initial Operational Capability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-03-24

    months for defense acquisition programs from program initiation, which is the start of Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD), to Initial...multiple regression model that provides an output value in months . For the purpose of this study, the output from the multiple regression analysis...encompasses overall time duration in months , starting at MS-B, through EMD, P&D, Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP), and Initial Operational Test and

  3. Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Ana M M; Mellin, Camille; Fordham, Damien A; Meekan, Mark G; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2014-03-01

    The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc  = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species.

  4. Phylogeny Predicts Future Habitat Shifts Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. Methodology We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Conclusions Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8–77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change. PMID:24892737

  5. Differences in Motor Imagery Time when Predicting Task Duration in Alpine Skiers and Equestrian Riders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Louis, Magali; Collet, Christian; Champely, Stephane; Guillot, Aymeric

    2012-01-01

    Athletes' ability to use motor imagery (MI) to predict the speed at which they could perform a motor sequence has received little attention. In this study, 21 alpine skiers and 16 equestrian riders performed MI based on a prediction of actual performance time (a) after the course inspection, (b) before the start, and (c) after the actual…

  6. Tryptophan Predicts the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Tianlu; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Ni, Yan; Hu, Cheng; Rajani, Cynthia; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Recently, 5 amino acids were identified and verified as important metabolites highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. This report aims to assess the association of tryptophan with the development of T2D and to evaluate its performance with existing amino acid markers. A total of 213 participants selected from a ten-year longitudinal Shanghai Diabetes Study (SHDS) were examined in two ways: 1) 51 subjects who developed diabetes and 162 individuals who remained metabolically healthy in 10 years; 2) the same 51 future diabetes and 23 strictly matched ones selected from the 162 healthy individuals. Baseline fasting serum tryptophan concentrations were quantitatively measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry. First, serum tryptophan level was found significantly higher in future T2D and was positively and independently associated with diabetes onset risk. Patients with higher tryptophan level tended to present higher degree of insulin resistance and secretion, triglyceride and blood pressure. Second, the prediction potential of tryptophan is non-inferior to the 5 existing amino acids. The predictive performance of the combined score improved after taking tryptophan into account. Our findings unveiled the potential of tryptophan as a new marker associated with diabetes risk in Chinese populations. The addition of tryptophan provided complementary value to the existing amino acid predictors. PMID:27598004

  7. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

    PubMed

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

  8. Prediction of impact force and duration during low velocity impact on circular composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivakumar, K. N.; Elber, W.; Illg, W.

    1983-01-01

    Two simple and improved models--energy-balance and spring-mass--were developed to calculate impact force and duration during low velocity impact of circular composite plates. Both models include the contact deformation of the plate and the impactor as well as bending, transverse shear, and membrane deformations of the plate. The plate was transversely isotropic graphite/epoxy composite laminate and the impactor was a steel sphere. Calculated impact forces from the two analyses agreed with each other. The analyses were verified by comparing the results with reported test data.

  9. Using unknown knowns to predict coastal response to future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Lentz, E. E.; Gutierrez, B.; Thieler, E. R.; Passeri, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal zone, including its bathymetry, topography, ecosystem, and communities, depends on and responds to a wide array of natural and engineered processes associated with climate variability. Climate affects the frequency of coastal storms, which are only resolved probabilistically for future conditions, as well as setting the pace for persistent processes (e.g., waves driving daily alongshore transport; beach nourishment). It is not clear whether persistent processes or extreme events contribute most to the integrated evolution of the coast. Yet, observations of coastal change record the integration of persistent and extreme processes. When these observations span a large spatial domain and/or temporal range they may reflect a wide range of forcing and boundary conditions that include different levels of sea-level rise, storminess, sediment input, engineering activities, and elevation distributions. We have been using a statistical approach to characterize the interrelationships between oceanographic, ecological, and geomorphic processes—including the role played by human activities via coastal protection, beach nourishment, and other forms of coastal management. The statistical approach, Bayesian networks, incorporates existing information to establish underlying prior expectations for the distributions and inter-correlations of variables most relevant to coastal geomorphic evolution. This underlying information can then be used to make predictions. We demonstrate several examples of the utility of this approach using data as constraints and then propagating the constraints and uncertainty to make predictions of unobserved variables that include changes in shorelines, dunes, and overwash deposits. We draw on data from the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States, resolving time scales of years to a century. The examples include both short-term storm impacts and long-term evolution associated with sea-level rise. We show that the Bayesian network can

  10. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

  11. Identifying future scientists: predicting persistence into research training.

    PubMed

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8-12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers.

  12. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade

    PubMed Central

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P.; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J. R.; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C. Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments. PMID:24196518

  13. Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

    PubMed

    Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

    2014-01-01

    A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

  14. Developing neuronal networks: self-organized criticality predicts the future.

    PubMed

    Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

    2013-01-01

    Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and "aging" process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

  15. Short sleep duration is associated with risk of future diabetes but not cardiovascular disease: a prospective study and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Holliday, Elizabeth G; Magee, Christopher A; Kritharides, Leonard; Banks, Emily; Attia, John

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies have observed association between short sleep duration and both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes, although these results may reflect confounding by pre-existing illness. This study aimed to determine whether short sleep duration predicts future CVD or type 2 diabetes after accounting for baseline health. Baseline data for 241,949 adults were collected through the 45 and Up Study, an Australian prospective cohort study, with health outcomes identified via electronic database linkage. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals. Compared to 7h sleep, <6h sleep was associated with incident CVD in participants reporting ill-health at baseline (HR=1.38 [95% CI: 1.12-1.70]), but not after excluding those with baseline illness and adjusting for baseline health status (1.03 [0.88-1.21]). In contrast, the risk of incident type 2 diabetes was significantly increased in those with <6h versus 7h sleep, even after excluding those with baseline illness and adjusting for baseline health (HR=1.29 [1.08-1.53], P=0.004). This suggests the association is valid and does not simply reflect confounding or reverse causation. Meta-analysis of ten prospective studies including 447,124 participants also confirmed an association between short sleep and incident diabetes (1.33 [1.20-1.48]). Obtaining less than 6 hours of sleep each night (compared to 7 hours) may increase type 2 diabetes risk by approximately 30%.

  16. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.

    2009-12-01

    As computers get faster and our understanding of the climate system improves, climate models to predict the future are getting more complex by including more and more processes, and they are run at higher and higher resolution to resolve more of the small scale processes. As a result, some of the simulated features and structures, e.g. ocean eddies or tropical cyclones look surprisingly real. But are these deceptive? A pattern can look perfectly real but be in the wrong place. So can the current global models really provide the kind of information on local scales and on the quantities (e.g. extreme events) that the decision maker would need to know to invest for example in adaptation? A closer look indicates that evaluating skill of climate models and quantifying uncertainties in predictions is very difficult. This presentation shows that while models are improving in simulating the climate features we observe (e.g. the present day mean state, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation), the spread from multiple models in predicting future changes is often not decreasing. The main problem is that (unlike with weather forecasts for example) we cannot evaluate the model on a prediction (for example for the year 2100) and we have to use the present, or past changes as metrics of skills. But there are infinite ways of testing a model, and many metrics used to test models do not clearly relate to the prediction. Therefore there is little agreement in the community on metrics to separate ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models, and there is a concern that model development, evaluation and posterior weighting or ranking of models are all using the same datasets. While models are continuously improving in representing what we believe to be the key processes, many models also share ideas, parameterizations or even pieces of model code. The current models can therefore not be considered independent. Robustness of a model simulated result is often interpreted as increasing the confidence

  17. Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

    PubMed

    Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

    2016-04-12

    A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model.

  18. The critical power function is dependent on the duration of the predictive exercise tests chosen.

    PubMed

    Bishop, D; Jenkins, D G; Howard, A

    1998-02-01

    The linear relationship between work accomplished (W(lim)) and time to exhaustion (t(lim)) can be described by the equation: W(lim) = a + CP x t(lim). Critical power (CP) is the slope of this line and is thought to represent a maximum rate of ATP synthesis without exhaustion, presumably an inherent characteristic of the aerobic energy system. The present investigation determined whether the choice of predictive tests would elicit significant differences in the estimated CP. Ten female physical education students completed, in random order and on consecutive days, five all-out predictive tests at preselected constant-power outputs. Predictive tests were performed on an electrically-braked cycle ergometer and power loadings were individually chosen so as to induce fatigue within approximately 1-10 mins. CP was derived by fitting the linear W(lim)-t(lim) regression and calculated three ways: 1) using the first, third and fifth W(lim)-t(lim) coordinates (I135), 2) using coordinates from the three highest power outputs (I123; mean t(lim) = 68-193 s) and 3) using coordinates from the lowest power outputs (I345; mean t(lim) = 193-485 s). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that CPI123 (201.0+/-37.9W) > CPI135 (176.1+/-27.6W) > CPI345 (164.0+/-22.8W) (P<0.05). When the three sets of data were used to fit the hyperbolic Power-t(lim) regression, statistically significant differences between each CP were also found (P<0.05). The shorter the predictive trials, the greater the slope of the W(lim)-t(lim) regression; possibly because of the greater influence of 'aerobic inertia' on these trials. This may explain why CP has failed to represent a maximal, sustainable work rate. The present findings suggest that if CP is to represent the highest power output that an individual can maintain "for a very long time without fatigue" then CP should be calculated over a range of predictive tests in which the influence of aerobic inertia is minimised.

  19. New Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Peak Ground Velocity and Duration of Ground Motion for Mining Tremors in Upper Silesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodacki, Jacek

    2016-12-01

    This article presents a method of predicting the peak horizontal velocity of ground motion, PHV, and the duration of vibration, tH, for strong seismic events (E ≥ 5·106 J, ML > 2.5) in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB). For the prediction of PHV, a model proposed by Si and Midorikawa was used. The regression method takes into account the impact of the local geology under seismic stations on the ground motion according to the Eurocode 8 classification. The ground classification was based on the results of a seismic survey conducted near the seismometer stations. This method is of great practical use because it allows the degree of vibration intensity to be determined on the basis of the Mining Seismic Instrumental Intensity Scale MSIIS-15 (acronym GSIGZW in Polish version) at any distance from the epicentre of the seismic events induced or triggered by mining.

  20. Duration of inflation and conditions at the bounce as a prediction of effective isotropic loop quantum cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linsefors, Linda; Barrau, Aurelien

    2013-06-01

    Loop quantum cosmology with a scalar field is known to be closely linked with an inflationary phase. In this article, we study probabilistic predictions for the duration of slow-roll inflation, by assuming a minimalist massive scalar field as the main content of the Universe. The phase of the field in its “prebounce” oscillatory state is taken as a natural random parameter. We find that the probability for a given number of inflationary e-folds is quite sharply peaked around 145, which is consistent with the most favored minimum values. In this precise sense, a satisfactory inflation is therefore a clear prediction of loop gravity. In addition, we derive an original and stringent upper limit on the Barbero-Immirzi parameter. The general picture of inflation, superinflation, deflation, and superdeflation is also much clarified in the framework of bouncing cosmologies.

  1. Information-bearing acoustic change outperforms duration in predicting intelligibility of full-spectrum and noise-vocoded sentences.

    PubMed

    Stilp, Christian E

    2014-03-01

    Recent research has demonstrated a strong relationship between information-bearing acoustic changes in the speech signal and speech intelligibility. The availability of information-bearing acoustic changes reliably predicts intelligibility of full-spectrum [Stilp and Kluender (2010). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107(27), 12387-12392] and noise-vocoded sentences amid noise interruption [Stilp et al. (2013). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 133(2), EL136-EL141]. However, other research reports that proportion of signal duration preserved also predicts intelligibility of noise-interrupted speech. These factors have only ever been investigated independently, obscuring whether one better explains speech perception. The present experiments manipulated both factors to answer this question. A broad range of sentence durations (160-480 ms) containing high or low information-bearing acoustic changes were replaced by speech-shaped noise in noise-vocoded (Experiment 1) and full-spectrum sentences (Experiment 2). Sentence intelligibility worsened with increasing noise replacement, but in both experiments, information-bearing acoustic change was a statistically superior predictor of performance. Perception relied more heavily on information-bearing acoustic changes in poorer listening conditions (in spectrally degraded sentences and amid increasing noise replacement). Highly linear relationships between measures of information and performance suggest that exploiting information-bearing acoustic change is a shared principle underlying perception of acoustically rich and degraded speech. Results demonstrate the explanatory power of information-theoretic approaches for speech perception.

  2. Ensemble predictions of future streamflow drought in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Rojas, Rodrigo

    2013-04-01

    Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming and growing human water use are likely to favor conditions for the development of streamflow droughts in several parts of Europe by the end of this century. In this study, we quantify how future drought hazard in Europe may develop in view of these drivers by comparing low-flow predictions of the LISFLOOD hydrological model coupled to a water consumption module and driven by an ensemble of climate projections. This ensemble consists of 12 bias-corrected climate simulations conducted within the ENSEMBLES project, forced by the A1B emission scenario for the period 1961-2100. For time slices of 30 years, low-flow characteristics - quantified in terms of minimum flows, environmental flows and deficits - are derived from the simulated streamflow series and further analyzed using extreme value theory. Changes in extreme river conditions are then analyzed with respect to the 1961-1990 control period. Two main domains with opposite signal of change in drought characteristics can be identified in Europe, as well as a transition zone between them. Southern parts of Europe - from the Iberian to Balkan Peninsula- but also France, Belgium and British Isles are expected to be more prone to severe and persistent low-flow conditions. In contrast, the Scandinavia Peninsula and Northeast Europe show a robust decrease in future drought hazard. In a transition zone between these two regions, climate-induced changes are projected to be marginal. Water use under an A1B-consistent scenario will further aggravate drought conditions in the south as well as in the transition zone. In the regions with a clear pattern of change in streamflow drought, indices derived from the hydrological simulations for different climate experiments are highly consistent, whereas in the transition zone between North and South Europe the consistency in changes amongst the ensemble members is lower.

  3. Learning to predict: Exposure to temporal sequences facilitates prediction of future events

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Rosalind; Dexter, Matthew; Hardwicke, Tom E.; Goldstone, Aimee; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2014-01-01

    Previous experience is thought to facilitate our ability to extract spatial and temporal regularities from cluttered scenes. However, little is known about how we may use this knowledge to predict future events. Here we test whether exposure to temporal sequences facilitates the visual recognition of upcoming stimuli. We presented observers with a sequence of leftwards and rightwards oriented gratings that was interrupted by a test stimulus. Observers were asked to indicate whether the orientation of the test stimulus matched their expectation based on the preceding sequence. Our results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates our ability to predict an upcoming stimulus. In particular, observers’ performance improved following exposure to structured but not random sequences. Improved performance lasted for a prolonged period and generalized to untrained stimulus orientations rather than sequences of different global structure, suggesting that observers acquire knowledge of the sequence structure rather than its items. Further, this learning was compromised when observers performed a dual task resulting in increased attentional load. These findings suggest that exposure to temporal regularities in a scene allows us to accumulate knowledge about its global structure and predict future events. PMID:24231115

  4. Predictive Low-Glucose Insulin Suspension Reduces Duration of Nocturnal Hypoglycemia in Children Without Increasing Ketosis

    PubMed Central

    Buckingham, Bruce A.; Raghinaru, Dan; Cameron, Fraser; Bequette, B. Wayne; Chase, H. Peter; Maahs, David M.; Slover, Robert; Wadwa, R. Paul; Wilson, Darrell M.; Ly, Trang; Aye, Tandy; Hramiak, Irene; Clarson, Cheril; Stein, Robert; Gallego, Patricia H.; Lum, John; Sibayan, Judy; Kollman, Craig

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Nocturnal hypoglycemia can cause seizures and is a major impediment to tight glycemic control, especially in young children with type 1 diabetes. We conducted an in-home randomized trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a continuous glucose monitor–based overnight predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In two age-groups of children with type 1 diabetes (11–14 and 4–10 years of age), a 42-night trial for each child was conducted wherein each night was assigned randomly to either having the PLGS system active (intervention night) or inactive (control night). The primary outcome was percent time <70 mg/dL overnight. RESULTS Median time at <70 mg/dL was reduced by 54% from 10.1% on control nights to 4.6% on intervention nights (P < 0.001) in 11–14-year-olds (n = 45) and by 50% from 6.2% to 3.1% (P < 0.001) in 4–10-year-olds (n = 36). Mean overnight glucose was lower on control versus intervention nights in both age-groups (144 ± 18 vs. 152 ± 19 mg/dL [P < 0.001] and 153 ± 14 vs. 160 ± 16 mg/dL [P = 0.004], respectively). Mean morning blood glucose was 159 ± 29 vs. 176 ± 28 mg/dL (P < 0.001) in the 11–14-year-olds and 154 ± 25 vs. 158 ± 22 mg/dL (P = 0.11) in the 4–10-year-olds, respectively. No differences were found between intervention and control in either age-group in morning blood ketosis. CONCLUSIONS In 4–14-year-olds, use of a nocturnal PLGS system can substantially reduce overnight hypoglycemia without an increase in morning ketosis, although overnight mean glucose is slightly higher. PMID:26049549

  5. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  6. Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Katarina L.; Pennline, James A.

    2013-01-01

    During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

  7. Regionally Adaptable Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) from Empirical Models of Fourier and Duration of Ground Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bora, Sanjay; Scherbaum, Frank; Kuehn, Nicolas; Stafford, Peter; Edwards, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The current practice of deriving empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) involves using ground motions recorded at multiple sites. However, in applications like site-specific (e.g., critical facility) hazard ground motions obtained from the GMPEs are need to be adjusted/corrected to a particular site/site-condition under investigation. This study presents a complete framework for developing a response spectral GMPE, within which the issue of adjustment of ground motions is addressed in a manner consistent with the linear system framework. The present approach is a two-step process in which the first step consists of deriving two separate empirical models, one for Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and the other for a random vibration theory (RVT) optimized duration (Drvto) of ground motion. In the second step the two models are combined within the RVT framework to obtain full response spectral amplitudes. Additionally, the framework also involves a stochastic model based extrapolation of individual Fourier spectra to extend the useable frequency limit of the empirically derived FAS model. The stochastic model parameters were determined by inverting the Fourier spectral data using an approach similar to the one as described in Edwards and Faeh (2013). Comparison of median predicted response spectra from present approach with those from other regional GMPEs indicates that the present approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

  8. Monolayer cultivation of osteoprogenitors shortens duration of the embryonic stem cell test while reliably predicting developmental osteotoxicity.

    PubMed

    zur Nieden, Nicole I; Davis, Lesley A; Rancourt, Derrick E

    2010-11-09

    Osteotoxic compounds administered during pregnancy can initiate skeletal congenital anomalies in the embryo. In vitro, developmental osteotoxicity of a compound can be predicted with the embryonic stem cell test (EST), the only in vitro embryotoxicity model identified to date that entirely abrogates the use of animals. Although the previously identified endpoint osteocalcin mRNA expression robustly predicts developmental osteotoxicity, it can only be assayed after 5 weeks of in vitro culture with existing embryoid body (EB)-based differentiation protocols. Therefore, the goal of this study was to characterize novel earlier endpoints of developmental osteotoxicity for the EST. The currently used EB-based differentiation protocol was modified so that a monolayer culture of pre-differentiated cells was inoculated. The expression profile of five bone-specific mRNAs, including osteocalcin, over the course of 30 differentiation days suggested an acceleration of pre-osteoblast specification in the monolayer over the EB-based protocol. Similarly, calcification was already visible after 14 days of culture in monolayer cultures. Employing image and absorption-based techniques to measure the degree of mineralization in these cells after compound treatment, the three compounds Penicillin G, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and all-trans retinoic acid (RA) were then tested after 14 days in monolayer cultures and compared to embryoid body-based differentiations at day 30. By modifying the culture the three test substances were classified correctly into non- or strong osteotoxic. Moreover, we were successful in shortening the assay duration from 30 to 14 days.

  9. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

    2017-02-01

    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

  10. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  11. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  12. Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations.

    PubMed

    Rowberry, Matt D; Martí, Xavi; Frontera, Carlos; Van De Wiel, Marco J; Briestenský, Miloš

    2016-06-01

    Cave radon concentration measurements reflect the outcome of a perpetual competition which pitches flux against ventilation and radioactive decay. The mass balance equations used to model changes in radon concentration through time routinely treat flux as a constant. This mathematical simplification is acceptable as a first order approximation despite the fact that it sidesteps an intrinsic geological problem: the majority of radon entering a cavity is exhaled as a result of advection along crustal discontinuities whose motions are inhomogeneous in both time and space. In this paper the dynamic nature of flux is investigated and the results are used to predict cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The first part of our numerical modelling procedure focuses on calculating cave air flow velocity while the second part isolates flux in a mass balance equation to simulate real time dependence among the variables. It is then possible to use this information to deliver an expression for computing cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The dynamic variables in the numerical model are represented by the outer temperature, the inner temperature, and the radon concentration while the static variables are represented by the radioactive decay constant and a range of parameters related to geometry of the cavity. Input data were recorded at Driny Cave in the Little Carpathians Mountains of western Slovakia. Here the cave passages have developed along splays of the NE-SW striking Smolenice Fault and a series of transverse faults striking NW-SE. Independent experimental observations of fault slip are provided by three permanently installed mechanical extensometers. Our numerical modelling has revealed four important flux anomalies between January 2010 and August 2011. Each of these flux anomalies was preceded by conspicuous fault slip anomalies. The mathematical procedure outlined in this paper will help to improve our understanding of radon migration

  13. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  14. Flow-duration curves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Searcy, James Kincheon

    1959-01-01

    The flow-duration curve is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of time specified discharges were equaled or exceeded during a given period. It combines in one curve the flow characteristics of a stream throughout the range of discharge, without regard to the sequence of occurrence. If the period upon which the curve is based represents the long-term flow of a stream, the curve may be used to predict the distribution of future flows for water- power, water-supply, and pollution studies. This report shows that differences in geology affect the low-flow ends of flow-duration curves of streams in adjacent basins. Thus, duration curves are useful in appraising the geologic characteristics of drainage basins. A method for adjusting flow-duration curves of short periods to represent long-term conditions is presented. The adjustment is made by correlating the records of a short-term station with those of a long-term station.

  15. Pre-attentive sensitivity to vowel duration reveals native phonology and predicts learning of second-language sounds.

    PubMed

    Chládková, Kateřina; Escudero, Paola; Lipski, Silvia C

    2013-09-01

    In some languages (e.g. Czech), changes in vowel duration affect word meaning, while in others (e.g. Spanish) they do not. Yet for other languages (e.g. Dutch), the linguistic role of vowel duration remains unclear. To reveal whether Dutch represents vowel length in its phonology, we compared auditory pre-attentive duration processing in native and non-native vowels across Dutch, Czech, and Spanish. Dutch duration sensitivity patterned with Czech but was larger than Spanish in the native vowel, while it was smaller than Czech and Spanish in the non-native vowel. An interpretation of these findings suggests that in Dutch, duration is used phonemically but it might be relevant for the identity of certain native vowels only. Furthermore, the finding that Spanish listeners are more sensitive to duration in non-native than in native vowels indicates that a lack of duration differences in one's native language could be beneficial for second-language learning.

  16. Future Time Perspective: Adolescents' Predictions of Their Interpersonal Lives in the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blinn, Lynn M.; Pike, Gary

    1989-01-01

    Investigated adolescent future time perspective in adolescents (N=125) aged 15 to 20 years. Found adolescents did not perceive divorce in their future although periods of singlehood, widowhood, and nuclear family life were perceived as extremely likely, particularly among female adolescents. (Author/ABL)

  17. Visions: Reflections on the Past, Predictions of the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connection: The Journal of the New England Board of Higher Education, 2005

    2005-01-01

    To mark New England Board of Higher Education's (NEBHE) 50th anniversary year, "Connection" invited a small group of visionary commentators to submit short "statements" on the future of New England's economic and civic development, tomorrow's technologies and the changing shape of higher education. This article includes the…

  18. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

  19. Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

  20. Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

    2006-01-01

    Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

  1. Predicting the Future: Studies on the Growth of the Intellect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ.

    This illustrated booklet describes research procedures in the Infant Laboratory of the Educational Testing Service to investigate measurable factors in infant behavior which can predict intellectual potential. The research is currently focusing on attending, the manner in which infants respond to various stimuli presented to them during their…

  2. Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

    PubMed Central

    Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R; Adler, Frederick R; Sanders, Nathan J

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change. PMID:24963378

  3. Prediction of Research Self-Efficacy and Future Research Involvement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bishop, Rosean M.; And Others

    Although graduate programs hope that their students will be committed to research in their careers, most students express ambivalence towards research. Identifying the variables that predict involvement in research thus seems crucial. In this study 136 doctoral students from a wide range of disciplines completed the Research Self-Efficacy Scale…

  4. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L.

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end,…

  5. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  6. Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

  7. Predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory medicine: back to the future

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    The pioneering work of Jean Dausset on the HLA system established several principles that were later reflected in the Human Genome Project and contributed to the foundations of predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine. To effectively develop systems medicine, we should take advantage of the lessons of the HLA saga, emphasizing the importance of exploring a fascinating but mysterious biology, now using systems principles, pioneering new technology developments and creating shared biological and information resources. PMID:20804580

  8. A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

  9. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  10. Digitization and its discontents: future shock in predictive oncology.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Richard J

    2010-02-01

    Clinical cancer care is being transformed by a high-technology informatics revolution fought out between the forces of personalized (biomarker-guided) and depersonalized (bureaucracy-controlled) medicine. Factors triggering this conflict include the online proliferation of treatment algorithms, rising prices of biological drug therapies, increasing sophistication of genomic-based predictive tools, and the growing entrepreneurialism of offshore treatment facilities. The resulting Napster-like forces unleashed within the oncology marketplace will deliver incremental improvements in cost-efficacy to global healthcare consumers. There will also be a price to pay, however, as the rising wave of digitization encourages third-party payers to make more use of biomarkers for tightening reimbursement criteria. Hence, as in other digitally transformed industries, a new paradigm of professional service delivery-less centered on doctor-patient relationships than in the past, and more dependent on pricing and marketing for standardized biomarker-defined indications-seems set to emerge as the unpredicted deliverable from this brave new world of predictive oncology.

  11. Working Memory-Related Neural Activity Predicts Future Smoking Relapse

    PubMed Central

    Loughead, James; Wileyto, E Paul; Ruparel, Kosha; Falcone, Mary; Hopson, Ryan; Gur, Ruben; Lerman, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    Brief abstinence from smoking impairs cognition, particularly executive function, and this has a role in relapse to smoking. This study examined whether working memory-related brain activity predicts subsequent smoking relapse above and beyond standard clinical and behavioral measures. Eighty treatment-seeking smokers completed two functional magnetic resonance imaging sessions (smoking satiety vs 24 h abstinence challenge) during performance of a visual N-back task. Brief counseling and a short-term quit attempt followed. Relapse during the first 7 days was biochemically confirmed by the presence of the nicotine metabolite cotinine. Mean percent blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal change was extracted from a priori regions of interest: bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), medial frontal/cingulate gyrus, posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Signal from these brain regions and additional clinical measures were used to model outcome status, which was then validated with resampling techniques. Relapse to smoking was predicted by increased withdrawal symptoms, decreased left DLPFC and increased PCC BOLD percent signal change (abstinence vs smoking satiety). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated 81% area under the curve using these predictors, a significant improvement over the model with clinical variables only. The combination of abstinence-induced decreases in left DLPFC activation and reduced suppression of PCC may be a prognostic marker for poor outcome, specifically early smoking relapse. PMID:25469682

  12. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    PubMed

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-03-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P < 0.001). When adjusting for calendar time, age, sex, educational level, smoking, and baseline values for bleeding on probing, probing pocket depth >4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  13. Can Global Weed Assemblages Be Used to Predict Future Weeds?

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Louise; Paini, Dean R.; Randall, Roderick P.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM) approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems. PMID:23393591

  14. Prediction of conversion to psychosis: review and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Gee, Dylan G.; Cannon, Tyrone D.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews recent findings on predictors of conversion to psychosis among youth deemed at ultra high risk (UHR) based on the presence of subpsychotic-intensity symptoms or genetic risk for psychosis and a recent decline in functioning. Although transition rates differ between studies, the most well powered studies have observed rates of conversion to full psychosis in the 30–40% range over 2–3 years of follow-up. Across studies, severity of subthreshold positive symptoms, poorer social functioning, and genetic risk for schizophrenia appear to be consistent predictors of conversion to psychosis, with algorithms combining these indicators achieving positive predictive power ≥ 80%. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of UHR cases do not convert to psychosis. Recent work indicates that UHR cases who present with lower levels of negative symptoms and higher levels of social functioning are more likely to recover symptomatically and no longer meet criteria for an at-risk mental state. In general, it appears that about 1/3 of UHR cases convert to psychosis, about 1/3 do not convert but remain symptomatic and functionally impaired, and about 1/3 recover symptomatically and functionally. Continued efforts to detect early risk for psychosis are critical for informing early intervention and provide increasing promise of delaying or even preventing the onset of psychosis. PMID:22286564

  15. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    PubMed

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  16. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Gerrad D.; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H. E.

    2017-01-01

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. PMID:28223487

  17. Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the .net future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Ernest L.

    2001-10-01

    An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The use of these machines in factory automation can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. This paper presents a discussion of recent and future technical and economic trends. During the past twenty years the use of industrial robots that are equipped not only with precise motion control systems but also with sensors such as cameras, laser scanners, or tactile sensors that permit adaptation to a changing environment has increased dramatically. Intelligent robot products have been developed in many cases for factory automation and for some hospital and home applications. To reach an even higher degree of applications, the addition of learning may be required. Recently, learning theories such as the adaptive critic have been proposed. In this type of learning, a critic provides a grade to the controller of an action module such as a robot. The adaptive critic is a good model for human learning. In general, the critic may be considered to be the human with the teach pendant, plant manager, line supervisor, quality inspector or the consumer. If the ultimate critic is the consumer, then the quality inspector must model the consumer's decision-making process and use this model in the design and manufacturing operations. Can the adaptive critic be used to advance intelligent robots? Intelligent robots have historically taken decades to be developed and reduced to practice. Methods for speeding this development include technology such as rapid prototyping and product development and government, industry and university cooperation.

  18. Predictive animal models of mania: hits, misses and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Young, Jared W; Henry, Brook L; Geyer, Mark A

    2011-01-01

    Mania has long been recognized as aberrant behaviour indicative of mental illness. Manic states include a variety of complex and multifaceted symptoms that challenge clear clinical distinctions. Symptoms include over-activity, hypersexuality, irritability and reduced need for sleep, with cognitive deficits recently linked to functional outcome. Current treatments have arisen through serendipity or from other disorders. Hence, treatments are not efficacious for all patients, and there is an urgent need to develop targeted therapeutics. Part of the drug discovery process is the assessment of therapeutics in animal models. Here we review pharmacological, environmental and genetic manipulations developed to test the efficacy of therapeutics in animal models of mania. The merits of these models are discussed in terms of the manipulation used and the facet of mania measured. Moreover, the predictive validity of these models is discussed in the context of differentiating drugs that succeed or fail to meet criteria as approved mania treatments. The multifaceted symptomatology of mania has not been reflected in the majority of animal models, where locomotor activity remains the primary measure. This approach has resulted in numerous false positives for putative treatments. Recent work highlights the need to utilize multivariate strategies to enable comprehensive assessment of affective and cognitive dysfunction. Advances in therapeutic treatment may depend on novel models developed with an integrated approach that includes: (i) a comprehensive battery of tests for different aspects of mania, (ii) utilization of genetic information to establish aetiological validity and (iii) objective quantification of patient behaviour with translational cross-species paradigms. LINKED ARTICLES This article is part of a themed issue on Translational Neuropharmacology. To view the other articles in this issue visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2011.164.issue-4 PMID:21410454

  19. Does presentation at the Registrars' Papers Day predict future publication?

    PubMed

    Wong, Shing W; Crowe, Philip J

    2006-06-01

    There are research requirements for trainees to be eligible to present for their final examinations (Fellowship of Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, FRACS). One option is the presentation of a paper or poster at a meeting of which abstracts are subject to review and selection. This includes presentation at the annual Registrars' Papers Day (RPD) in New South Wales. There has been some debate surrounding whether research requirements are fulfilled by presentation at such meetings. Publication in a peer-reviewed journal should be the ultimate aim. A high publication rate will validate the quality of the meeting. All abstracts submitted to the RPD in 1998 and 1999 were analysed. A Medline search was performed in 2005 to identify publication of these presentations in a peer-reviewed journal. Variables of the study that were potentially predictive of subsequent publication were analysed. This included type of presentation, surgical specialty, clinical or laboratory-based study, study design (prospective or retrospective) and sample size. Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction was used to compare two independent proportions and significance was set at P < 0.05. The publication rates were: oral presentations 50% (17/34), poster presentations 39% (9/23) and rejected presentations 20% (2/10). The mean and median time to publication was 23.8 and 21.0 months. Prospective design was the only variable identified to have a statistically significant effect on the publication rate (P < 0.002). The most common publishing journal was the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Surgery (12 of 26). Overall consistency (author and study sample consistency) from presentation to publication was 32%. The overall 46% publication rate of this state-based trainees-organized meeting compares favourably with international meetings. The research requirement of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS), which includes presentation at the RPD in New South Wales, produces

  20. Callous-Unemotional Traits Robustly Predict Future Criminal Offending in Young Men

    PubMed Central

    Kahn, Rachel E.; Byrd, Amy L.; Pardini, Dustin A.

    2013-01-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of empathy, deficient guilt/remorse, and shallow affect) are a circumscribed facet of the adult psychopathic personality. Although several studies have found that adult psychopathy is a robust predictor of future criminal offending, research exploring the predictive utility of CU traits and future offending are lacking. Moreover, empirical studies examining the predictive utility of psychopathic features often neglect to account for other well-documented risk factors (e.g., prior offending, delinquent peers, marital status), and thus the incremental predictive utility of CU traits remains uncertain. To address these limitations, the current study examined the unique contribution of CU traits in the prediction of future criminal offending in a large ethnically diverse community sample of young adult males (Mean Age = 25.76, SD = .95). Official criminal record information was collected approximately 3.5 years later using multiple sources. Results indicated that after controlling for several other well-established predictors of future offending, men with elevated CU traits had a greater number of arrests and criminal charges and were more likely to be charged with a serious offense and obstruction of justice. CU traits also predicted future theft for Caucasian men, but not African American men. Overall, the results support the notion that CU traits significantly add to the prediction of future offending, even after controlling for several other risk factors. PMID:22731505

  1. THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory


    The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
    Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

    When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

  2. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    PubMed

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  3. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Stoddard, Sarah A.; Heinze, Justin E.; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2015-01-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents’ violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26282242

  4. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

    PubMed

    Schrodi, Steven J; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J; Callear, Amy P; Carter, Tonia C; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L; Brilliant, Murray H; Crane, Paul K; Smelser, Diane T; Elston, Robert C; Weeks, Daniel E

    2014-01-01

    Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications.

  5. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  6. Lessons Learned and Future Goals of the High Lift Prediction Workshops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth; Slotnick, Jeffrey P.

    2016-01-01

    The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) High Lift Prediction Workshop series is described. Two workshops have been held to date. Major conclusions are summarized, and plans for future workshops are outlined. A compilation of lessons learned from the first two workshops is provided. This compilation includes a summary of needs for future high-lift experiments that are intended for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation.

  7. Prediction of initiation and duration of breast-feeding for neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Lessen, Rachelle; Crivelli-Kovach, Andrea

    2007-01-01

    Women who desire to breast-feed their sick newborns often encounter obstacles, including insufficient support and education as well as unsupportive hospital practices. The purpose of this study was to describe maternal, neonatal, and outside influences associated with the intention, initiation, and duration of breast-feeding for women whose newborns were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. One hundred mothers were interviewed. Most mothers (67%) intended to breast-feed exclusively and this was significantly related to maternal characteristics such as age, education, parity, smoking and marital status, pre-breast-feeding experience, and the influences of the neonate's father and prenatal education. Seventy-eight mothers initiated pumping. Initiation was significantly related to maternal education, smoking, parity, previous breast-feeding experience, the neonate's physician, the neonate's father, and postpartum breast-feeding education. Fifty-four mothers were followed up by telephone after discharge until weaning. Thirty percent were exclusively breast-feeding at 2 weeks after discharge, and 15% were breast-feeding at 1 year. Duration of breast-feeding was significantly associated with education, marital status, ethnicity, income, assistance from nurses and lactation consultants, and feeding method along with milk type and milk volume at discharge. Increased family support, timely breast-feeding information, and a supportive neonatal intensive care unit environment are needed for women to succeed in breast-feeding their hospitalized newborns.

  8. Managers' practices related to work-family balance predict employee cardiovascular risk and sleep duration in extended care settings.

    PubMed

    Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2010-07-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work-family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work-family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work-family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work-family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work-family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work-family score. Managers' attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk.

  9. Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

  10. Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

  11. Impact of hierarchies of clinical codes on predicting future days in hospital.

    PubMed

    Yang Xie; Neubauer, Sandra; Schreier, Gunter; Redmond, Stephen J; Lovell, Nigel H

    2015-01-01

    Health insurance claims contain valuable information for predicting the future health of a population. Nowadays, with many mature machine learning algorithms, models can be implemented to predict future medical costs and hospitalizations. However, it is well-known that the way in which the data are represented significantly affects the performance of machine learning algorithms. In health insurance claims, key clinical information mainly comes from the associated clinical codes, such as diagnosis codes and procedure codes, which are hierarchically structured. In this study, it is investigated whether the hierarchies of such clinical codes can be utilized to improve predictive performance in the context of predicting future days in hospital. Empirical investigations were done on data sets of different sizes, considering that the frequency of the appearance of lower-level (more specific) clinical codes could vary significantly in populations of different sizes. The use of bagged trees with feature sets that include only basic demographic features, low-level, medium-level, high-level clinical codes, and a full feature set were compared. The main finding from this study is that different hierarchies of clinical codes do not have a significant impact on the predictive power. Some other findings include: 1) Sample size greatly affects the predictive outcome (more observations result in more stable and more accurate outcomes); 2) Combined use of enriched demographic features and clinical features give better performance as compared to using them separately.

  12. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.

  13. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  14. Time Critical Targeting: Predictive Vs Reactionary Methods An Analysis For The Future

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-06-01

    Chapter 5 Results & Conclusions Having investigated the different methods and techniques that can be used for time critical targeting in the......Targeting: Predictive Vs Reactionary Methods An Analysis For The Future 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S

  15. Twenty Predictions about the Future of Residential Services in Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfensberger, Wolf

    2011-01-01

    Twenty predictions about the future of residential services to the mentally retarded are presented. These changes imply: (1) an entirely new model of residential services; (2) increasing continuity between residential and nonresidential services; and (3) increasing acceptance of cost-benefit rationales in the decision to offer residential or other…

  16. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  17. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  18. Prediction of Future Observations in Polynomial Growth Curve Models. Part 1.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-03-01

    UNIT NUMBERS University of Pittsburgh, Ninth Floor, PE6llO2F; 2304/A5 Schenley Hall, Pittsburgh PA 15260 It CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12...8217. DSIM Enitvd, ’ SR-TR. 8 3 0491 PREDICTION OF FUTURE OBSERVATIONS IN POLYNOMIAL GROWTH CURVE MODELS PART - 1 C. Radhakrishna Rao University of Pittsburgh

  19. Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

    PubMed

    Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

    2014-01-29

    Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

  20. Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2006-01-01

    The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These

  1. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    PubMed

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  2. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

  3. Risk factors that predict future onset of each DSM-5 eating disorder: Predictive specificity in high-risk adolescent females.

    PubMed

    Stice, Eric; Gau, Jeff M; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Because no single report has examined risk factors that predict future onset each type of eating disorder and core symptom dimensions that crosscut disorders, we addressed these aims to advance knowledge regarding risk factor specificity. Data from 3 prevention trials that targeted young women with body dissatisfaction (N = 1,272; Mage = 18.5, SD = 4.2) and collected annual diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to identify predictors of subthreshold/threshold anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD). Negative affect and functional impairment predicted onset of all eating disorders. Thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, overeating, and mental health care predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold BN, BED, and PD; positive thinness expectations, denial of cost of pursuing the thin ideal, and fasting predicted onset of 2 of these 3 disorders. Similar risk factors predicted core eating disorder symptom onset. Low BMI and dieting specifically predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold AN or low BMI. Only a subset of factors showed unique predictive effects in multivariate models, likely due to moderate correlations between the risk factors (M r = .14). Results provide support for the theory that pursuit of the thin ideal and the resulting body dissatisfaction, dieting, and unhealthy weight control behaviors increase risk for binge/purge spectrum eating disorders, but suggest that youth who are inherently lean, rather than purposely pursuing the thin ideal, are at risk for AN. Impaired interpersonal functioning and negative affect are transdiagnostic risk factors, suggesting these factors should be targeted in prevention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record

  4. Iowa Gambling Task scores predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with stimulant dependence.

    PubMed

    Nejtek, Vicki A; Kaiser, Kathryn A; Zhang, Bin; Djokovic, Marija

    2013-12-30

    Poor decision-making is associated with poor recovery in persons with bipolar disorder and drug relapse in persons with stimulant dependence. Cognitive predictors of stimulant use in those with comorbid bipolar and stimulant dependence are surprisingly absent. Our goal was to determine if a single baseline assessment of decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT) would predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with comorbid stimulant dependence. Ninety-four men and women of multiple race/ethnic origins consented to participate in a 20-week study. Data analyses were performed on 63 comorbid bipolar outpatients completing at least four study weeks and 28 cocaine dependent volunteers without a mood disorder who participated as cocaine controls. There were no significant differences in IGT scores between comorbid patients and cocaine controls. In the comorbid group, IGT scores significantly predicted future drug use during the study. Age, sex, race, years of mental illness, or mood state did not significantly influence IGT scores. This is the first longitudinal study to show that IGT scores obtained at a single baseline assessment predicts future objective drug use in comorbid bipolar disorder outpatients with cocaine or methamphetamine dependence. Evaluating decision-making with the IGT may provide clinicians with valuable insight about the trajectory of their patients' risk for future drug use. These data suggest a need to augment existing treatment with cognitive restructuring to prevent slips and relapses in comorbid bipolar patients. The lack of a bipolar control group and a modest sample size may limit data interpretations.

  5. KPG Index versus OPG Measurements: A Comparison between 3D and 2D Methods in Predicting Treatment Duration and Difficulty Level for Patients with Impacted Maxillary Canines

    PubMed Central

    Visconti, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Aim. The aim of this study was to test the agreement between orthopantomography (OPG) based 2D measurements and the KPG index, a new index based on 3D Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) images, in predicting orthodontic treatment duration and difficulty level of impacted maxillary canines. Materials and Methods. OPG and CBCT images of 105 impacted canines were independently scored by three orthodontists at t0 and after 1 month (t1), using the KPG index and the following 2D methods: distance from cusp tip and occlusal plane, cusp tip position in relation to the lateral incisor, and canine inclination. Pearson's coefficients were used to evaluate the degree of agreement and the χ2 with Yates correction test was used to assess the independence between them. Results. Inter- and intrarater reliability were higher with KPG compared to 2D methods. Pearson's coefficients showed a statistically significant association between all the indexes, while the χ2 with Yates correction test resulted in a statistically significant rejection of independency only for one 2D index. Conclusions. 2D indexes for predicting impacted maxillary canines treatment duration and difficulty sometimes are discordant; a 3D index like the KPG index could be useful in solving these conflicts. PMID:25126566

  6. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    PubMed

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2017-01-20

    The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA Draft, however its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and three-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data via PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. Per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p < 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  7. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    PubMed

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex.

  8. Residual forefoot deformity predicts the need for future surgery in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting.

    PubMed

    Hosseinzadeh, Pooya; Peterson, Erik D; Walker, Janet; Muchow, Ryan D; Iwinski, Henry J; Talwalkar, Vishwas R; Milbrandt, Todd A

    2016-03-01

    Tibialis anterior tendon transfer (TATT) is performed for treatment of recurrent clubfeet. We investigated the predictability of residual adductus on the future need for TATT. A retrospective review of 143 patients with clubfoot was performed. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 with a history of TATT and group 2 with no TATT. Heel-forefoot angle (HFA) was measured. HFA was compared between the groups. HFA was significantly different between groups 1 and 2. Residual adductus deformity in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting is a risk factor for future need for surgical treatment.

  9. Predicting future clinical changes of MCI patients using longitudinal and multimodal biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Daoqiang; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of clinical changes of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, including both qualitative change (i.e., conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD)) and quantitative change (i.e., cognitive scores) at future time points, is important for early diagnosis of AD and for monitoring the disease progression. In this paper, we propose to predict future clinical changes of MCI patients by using both baseline and longitudinal multimodality data. To do this, we first develop a longitudinal feature selection method to jointly select brain regions across multiple time points for each modality. Specifically, for each time point, we train a sparse linear regression model by using the imaging data and the corresponding clinical scores, with an extra 'group regularization' to group the weights corresponding to the same brain region across multiple time points together and to allow for selection of brain regions based on the strength of multiple time points jointly. Then, to further reflect the longitudinal changes on the selected brain regions, we extract a set of longitudinal features from the original baseline and longitudinal data. Finally, we combine all features on the selected brain regions, from different modalities, for prediction by using our previously proposed multi-kernel SVM. We validate our method on 88 ADNI MCI subjects, with both MRI and FDG-PET data and the corresponding clinical scores (i.e., MMSE and ADAS-Cog) at 5 different time points. We first predict the clinical scores (MMSE and ADAS-Cog) at 24-month by using the multimodality data at previous time points, and then predict the conversion of MCI to AD by using the multimodality data at time points which are at least 6-month ahead of the conversion. The results on both sets of experiments show that our proposed method can achieve better performance in predicting future clinical changes of MCI patients than the conventional methods.

  10. Brain activity in valuation regions while thinking about the future predicts individual discount rates.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Kim, B Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-08-07

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future--specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals--predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future.

  11. Predictions of space physics are difficult, especially when they are about the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassak, P.

    2015-12-01

    This talk is about the future of space physics, the broad field of study addressing how the sun works, its interaction with Earth and other planets via the solar wind and solar eruptions, and the region of interplanetary space out to the edge of the solar system. It is the chief field feeding into the development of tools for space weather prediction. Space physics is at an exciting - yet critical - time in its evolution. Scientifically, the capabilities afforded by new ground- and space-based observations and the rapidly increasing speed of supercomputing resources are leading to unprecedented progress in the field. Recently launched missions such as the Van Allen Probes and the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission, and upcoming missions such as Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter, will open doors to science not previously accessible through observations. Predicting the future of space physics is difficult; this talk will offer thoughts on the road forward.

  12. Role of Climate Change in Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Chen, W.; Seinfeld, J.

    2006-12-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate equilibrium climate change driven by changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and/or aerosols over 2000-2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. We consider only direct radiative effect of aerosols on future climate in this study. Since aerosol levels will both affect and be affected by future climate, we identify the role of aerosol-driven climate in predicting future air pollutants by performing a number of sensitivity studies. The year 2100 GHG concentrations as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Although greenhouse gases are the most important drivers of global climate change, aerosols are very influential on regional climate through absorption and scattering of solar radiation. As aerosol concentrations increase over 2000-2100, aerosol-induced cooling at the surface, increase in atmospheric stability, and reduction in precipitation are predicted to increase surface-layer concentrations of pollutants over populated areas; Aerosol-induced climate change is therefore predicted to have a positive feedback to tropospheric aerosol concentrations. We also compare the effect of GHG-driven climate on atmospheric composition with that of aerosol-driven climate. Results suggest that it is important to account for climate responses to aerosol forcing in predicting future ozone and aerosols.

  13. Forming attitudes that predict future behavior: a meta-analysis of the attitude-behavior relation.

    PubMed

    Glasman, Laura R; Albarracín, Dolores

    2006-09-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude-behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object.

  14. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    PubMed Central

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  15. Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

    PubMed Central

    Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

    2012-01-01

    Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

  16. FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Knudsen, Thomas B.; Keller, Douglas A.; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Eaton, David L.; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Mendrick, Donna L.; Tice, Raymond R.; Watkins, Paul B.; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

  17. What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

    PubMed

    Heinrichs, Bert

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

  18. Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

  19. Testosterone response to courtship predicts future paternal behavior in the California mouse, Peromyscus californicus.

    PubMed

    Gleason, Erin D; Marler, Catherine A

    2010-02-01

    In the monogamous and biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus), paternal care is critical for maximal offspring survival. Animals form pair bonds and do not engage in extrapair matings, and thus female evaluation of paternal quality during courtship is likely to be advantageous. We hypothesized that male endocrine or behavioral response to courtship interactions would be predictive of future paternal behavior. To test this hypothesis, we formed 20 pairs of California mice, and evaluated their behavior during the first hour of courtship interactions and again following the birth of young. We also collected blood from males at baseline, 1 hr after pairing, 3 weeks paired, and when young were 4 days old to measure testosterone (T). We found that male T-response to courtship interactions predicted future paternal behavior, specifically the amount of time he huddled over young when challenged by the temporary removal of his mate. Males that mounted T increases at courtship also approached pups more quickly during this challenge than males who had a significant decrease in T at courtship. Proximity of the male and female during courtship predicted paternal huddling during a 1-hr observation, and a multiple regression analysis revealed that courtship behavior was also predictive of birth latency. We speculate that male T-response to a female in P. californicus is an honest indicator of paternal quality, and if detectable by females could provide a basis for evaluation during mate choice.

  20. Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

    PubMed

    Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

    2016-03-01

    Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health.

  1. Nonperturbative relativistic approach to pion form factors: Predictions for future JLab experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Krutov, A. F.; Troitsky, V. E.; Tsirova, N. A.

    2009-11-15

    Some predictions concerning possible results of the future experiments at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) on the pion form factor F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}) are made. The calculations exploit the method proposed previously by the authors and based on the instant-form Poincare invariant approach to pions, considered as quark-antiquark systems. This model has predicted with surprising accuracy the values of F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}), which were measured later in JLab experiments. The results are almost independent from the form of wave function. The pion mean square radius and the decay constant f{sub {pi}} also agree with experimental values. The model gives powerlike asymptotic behavior of F{sub {pi}}(Q{sup 2}) at high momentum transfer in agreement with QCD predictions.

  2. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    PubMed Central

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J. F.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N < 10,000) the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially. PMID:26273586

  3. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics.

    PubMed

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J F

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N < 10,000) the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  4. Uncertain future soil carbon dynamics under global change predicted by models constrained by total carbon measurements.

    PubMed

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Sun, Osbert J

    2017-01-23

    Pool-based carbon (C) models are widely applied to predict soil C dynamics under global change and infer underlying mechanisms. However, it is unclear about the credibility of model-predicted C pool size, decay rate (k) and/or microbial C use efficiency (e) as only data on bulked total C is usually available for model-constraining. Using observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), we constrained a two-pool model using simulated datasets of total soil C dynamics under topical hypotheses on responses of soil C dynamics to warming and elevated CO2 (i.e., global change scenarios). The results indicated that the model predicted great uncertainties in C pool size, k and e under all global change scenarios, resulting in the difficulty to correctly infer the presupposed "real" values of those parameters that are used to generate the simulated total soil C for constraining the model. Furthermore, the model using the constrained parameters generated divergent future soil C dynamics. Compared with the predictions using the presupposed real parameters (i.e., the real future C dynamics), the percentage uncertainty in 100-year predictions using the constrained parameters was up to 45% depending on global change scenarios and data availability for model-constraining. Such great uncertainty was mainly due to the high collinearity among the model parameters. Using pool-based models, we argue that soil C pool size, k and/or e and their responses to global change have to be estimated explicitly and empirically, rather than through model-fitting, in order to accurately predict C dynamics and infer underlying mechanisms. The OSSE approach provides a powerful way to identify data requirement for the new generation of model development and test model performance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. Phonological Encoding and Phonetic Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fricke, Melinda Denise

    2013-01-01

    Studies of connected speech have repeatedly shown that the contextual predictability of a word is related to its phonetic duration; more predictable words tend to be produced with shorter duration, when other factors are controlled for (Aylett & Turk, 2004, 2006; Bell et al., 2003; Bell, Brenier, Gregory, Girand, & Jurafsky, 2009; Gahl,…

  6. Mathematical Modeling of Bacterial Kinetics to Predict the Impact of Antibiotic Colonic Exposure and Treatment Duration on the Amount of Resistant Enterobacteria Excreted

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Guedj, Jeremie; Chachaty, Elisabeth; de Gunzburg, Jean; Andremont, Antoine; Mentré, France

    2014-01-01

    Fecal excretion of antibiotics and resistant bacteria in the environment are major public health threats associated with extensive farming and modern medical care. Innovative strategies that can reduce the intestinal antibiotic concentrations during treatments are in development. However, the effect of lower exposure on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted has not been quantified, making it difficult to anticipate the impact of these strategies. Here, we introduce a bacterial kinetic model to capture the complex relationships between drug exposure, loss of susceptible enterobacteria and growth of resistant strains in the feces of piglets receiving placebo, 1.5 or 15 mg/kg/day ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, for 5 days. The model could well describe the kinetics of drug susceptible and resistant enterobacteria observed during treatment, and up to 22 days after treatment cessation. Next, the model was used to predict the expected amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted over an average piglet's lifetime (150 days) when varying drug exposure and treatment duration. For the clinically relevant dose of 15 mg/kg/day for 5 days, the total amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted was predicted to be reduced by 75% and 98% when reducing treatment duration to 3 and 1 day treatment, respectively. Alternatively, for a fixed 5-days treatment, the level of resistance excreted could be reduced by 18%, 33%, 57.5% and 97% if 3, 5, 10 and 30 times lower levels of colonic drug concentrations were achieved, respectively. This characterization on in vivo data of the dynamics of resistance to antibiotics in the colonic flora could provide new insights into the mechanism of dissemination of resistance and can be used to design strategies aiming to reduce it. PMID:25210849

  7. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-04-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of

  8. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-07-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the

  9. Predicting the future by explaining the past: constraining carbon-climate feedback using contemporary observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The carbon-climate community has an historic opportunity to make a step-function improvement in climate prediction by using regional constraints to improve mechanistic model representation of carbon cycle processes. Interactions among atmospheric CO2, global biogeochemistry, and physical climate constitute leading sources of uncertainty in future climate. First-order differences among leading models of these processes produce differences in climate as large as differences in aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and fossil fuel combustion. Emergent constraints based on global observations of interannual variations provide powerful constraints on model parameterizations. Additional constraints can be defined at regional scales. Organized intercomparison experiments have shown that uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback arise primarily from model representations of the dependence of photosynthesis on CO2 and drought stress and the dependence of decomposition on temperature. Just as representations of net carbon fluxes have benefited from eddy flux, ecosystem manipulations, and atmospheric CO2, component carbon fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, disturbance) can be constrained at regional scales using new observations. Examples include biogeochemical tracers such as isotopes and carbonyl sulfide as well as remotely-sensed parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence and biomass. Innovative model evaluation experiments will be needed to leverage the information content of new observations to improve process representations as well as to provide accurate initial conditions for coupled climate model simulations. Successful implementation of a comprehensive benchmarking program could have a huge impact on understanding and predicting future climate change.

  10. Automatic mental associations predict future choices of undecided decision-makers.

    PubMed

    Galdi, Silvia; Arcuri, Luciano; Gawronski, Bertram

    2008-08-22

    Common wisdom holds that choice decisions are based on conscious deliberations of the available information about choice options. On the basis of recent insights about unconscious influences on information processing, we tested whether automatic mental associations of undecided individuals bias future choices in a manner such that these choices reflect the evaluations implied by earlier automatic associations. With the use of a computer-based, speeded categorization task to assess automatic mental associations (i.e., associations that are activated unintentionally, difficult to control, and not necessarily endorsed at a conscious level) and self-report measures to assess consciously endorsed beliefs and choice preferences, automatic associations of undecided participants predicted changes in consciously reported beliefs and future choices over a period of 1 week. Conversely, for decided participants, consciously reported beliefs predicted changes in automatic associations and future choices over the same period. These results indicate that decision-makers sometimes have already made up their mind at an unconscious level, even when they consciously indicate that they are still undecided.

  11. Feather and faecal corticosterone concentrations predict future reproductive decisions in harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus)

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Warren K.; Bate, Lisa J.; Landry, Devin W.; Chastel, Olivier; Parenteau, Charline; Breuner, Creagh W.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding sources of reproductive variation can inform management and conservation decisions, population ecology and life-history theory. Annual reproductive variation can drive population growth rate and can be influenced by factors from across the annual cycle (known as carry-over effects). The majority of studies, however, focus solely on the role of current environmental events. Past events often influence future reproductive decisions and success but can be logistically difficult to collect and quantify, especially in migratory species. Recent work indicates that glucocorticoids may prove good indicators to evaluate carry-over effects across life-history transitions. Here, we evaluated three different measures of glucocorticoid physiology (feathers, faeces and plasma) to evaluate the predictability of future breeding decision in the harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus). We collected tail and back feathers, plasma and faeces for glucocorticoid analysis, and fitted female harlequin ducks with very high-frequency transmitters to track their breeding decisions. Both back feathers (moulted immediately before the current season) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolites were identified as important predictive factors of reproductive decisions; high concentrations of glucocorticoid metabolites in back feathers and faeces predicted a higher likelihood of reproductive deferral for the year. Although back and tail feather corticosterone concentrations were correlated, tail feathers (moulted at the end of the previous breeding season) did not predict breeding decisions. Plasma corticosterone concentrations were collected over too broad a time range after capture to be useful in this study. This study demonstrates the utility of non-invasive corticosterone metrics in predicting breeding decisions and supports the use of feathers to measure carry-over effects in migratory birds. With this technique, we identified the prenuptial moult as an important life

  12. Walking ability to predict future cognitive decline in old adults: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Kikkert, Lisette H J; Vuillerme, Nicolas; van Campen, Jos P; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Lamoth, Claudine J

    2016-05-01

    Early identification of individuals at risk for cognitive decline may facilitate the selection of those who benefit most from interventions. Current models predicting cognitive decline include neuropsychological and/or biological markers. Additional markers based on walking ability might improve accuracy and specificity of these models because motor and cognitive functions share neuroanatomical structures and psychological processes. We reviewed the relationship between walking ability at one point of (mid) life and cognitive decline at follow-up. A systematic literature search identified 20 longitudinal studies. The average follow-up time was 4.5 years. Gait speed quantified walking ability in most studies (n=18). Additional gait measures (n=4) were step frequency, variability and step-length. Despite methodological weaknesses, results revealed that gait slowing (0.68-1.1 m/sec) preceded cognitive decline and the presence of dementia syndromes (maximal odds and hazard ratios of 10.4 and 11.1, respectively). The results indicate that measures of walking ability could serve as additional markers to predict cognitive decline. However, gait speed alone might lack specificity. We recommend gait analysis, including dynamic gait parameters, in clinical evaluations of patients with suspected cognitive decline. Future studies should focus on examining the specificity and accuracy of various gait characteristics to predict future cognitive decline.

  13. Futurism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  14. Predicting current and future peatmoss drought stress: Impact of hydrological complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijp, Jelmer; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd

    2016-04-01

    Northern peatlands sequester enormous amounts of carbon and therefore represent a carbon store of global importance. The vegetation in northern peatlands is dominated by peat-forming bryophytes of the genus Sphagnum. The growth of this carbon fixer, and hence its carbon uptake, strongly depends on the moisture availability in the living moss layer, which is a function of both water table and rewetting by rain. Peatland hydrology models are used to predict how changes in climate may modify the future water balance of peatmoss carpets and influence associated carbon and energy balances. These models, however, differ considerably in the number and type of processes included, which will have yet unknown consequences for peatland drought predictions in a future climate. Here, we assessed the importance of rainwater storage and peat volume change for predicting peatmoss drought projections in northern peatlands using an ensemble of downscaled, bias-corrected climate scenarios for current (1991 - 2020) and future (2061 - 2090) climate. Peatmoss drought projections were compared among four model variants with or without rainwater storage in the peatmoss carpet and peat volume change, which are considered as two important hydrological feedbacks controlling moss moisture availability. The performance of the four model variants was assessed using field data from a site in northern Sweden (Degerö Stormyr, 64°N 19°E). Our results show that adding rainwater storage in the moss layer as well as peat volume change significantly improved model performance; the most complex model had best model performance. Compared to the reference model, including both model extensions reduced the predicted drought frequency experienced by peatmoss with around 50%. Moreover, projected climate change is expected to reduce predicted peatmoss drought stress with about 20% for the studied site. In conclusion, this study shows that including rainwater storage in the peatmoss layer and/or peat volume

  15. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  16. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, Damien A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Alroy, John; Saltré, Frédérik; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Brook, Barry W.

    2016-10-01

    Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecological outcomes in the face of global change. Opportunities include using fossils, genes and computational models to identify ecological traits that caused species to be differentially prone to regional and range-wide extinction, test if threatened-species assessment approaches work and locate habitats that support stable ecosystems in the face of shifting climates. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively.

  17. Time to Follow Commands and duration of Post-traumatic Amnesia predict GOS-E Peds scores 1–2 years after TBI in children requiring inpatient rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Kimberly C.; Slomine, Beth S.; Salorio, Cynthia F.; Suskauer, Stacy J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the utility of time to follow commands (TFC) in predicting functional outcome after pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI), as assessed by an outcome measure sensitive to the range of outcomes observed after pediatric TBI, the Glasgow Outcome Scale – Extended, Pediatrics Revision (GOS-E Peds). Setting Pediatric inpatient rehabilitation hospital and associated multidisciplinary brain injury follow-up clinic. Participants 67 children with moderate-to-severe TBI (mean age at injury 10.9 years, range 3–18 years). Design Outcomes were scored retrospectively based on documentation from an outpatient follow-up evaluation one-to-two years post injury (days from injury to follow-up: mean 518, standard deviation 137). Correlations between measures of severity and functional outcome were examined. Hierarchical logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to examine predictors of outcome. Main Measures Earliest documented Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), TFC, post traumatic amnesia (PTA), total duration of impaired consciousness (TFC+PTA), GOS-E Peds. Results For the logistic regression, TFC and TFC+PTA were significant predictors of outcome above and beyond GCS. For the linear analysis, PTA was also a significant predictor of functional outcome above and beyond GCS and TFC. The overall models were very comparable, with R2 values ranging from .31 to .36 for prediction of GOS-E Peds. Conclusion Above and beyond the influence of GCS, TFC, PTA, and TFC+PTA are important predictors of later outcome after TBI. PMID:26098263

  18. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    PubMed

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2011-03-25

    The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi) is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio) forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster), we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity) predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic activities than

  19. Elevated objectively measured but not self-reported energy intake predicts future weight gain in adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Stice, Eric; Durant, Shelley

    2014-01-01

    Background Although obesity putatively occurs when individuals consume more calories than needed for metabolic needs, numerous risk factor studies have not observed significant positive relations between reported caloric intake and future weight gain, potentially because reported caloric intake is inaccurate. Objective The present study tested the hypothesis that objectively measured habitual energy intake, estimated with doubly labeled water, would show a stronger positive relation to future weight gain than self-reported caloric intake based on a widely used food frequency measure. Design 253 adolescents completed a doubly labeled water (DLW) assessment of energy intake (EI), a food frequency measure, and a resting metabolic rate (RMR) assessment at baseline, and had their body mass index (BMI) measured at baseline and at 1- and 2-year follow-ups. Results Controlling for baseline RMR, elevated objectively measured EI, but not self-reported habitual caloric intake, predicted increases in BMI over a 2-year follow-up. On average, participants under-reported caloric intake by 35%. Conclusions Results provide support for the thesis that self-reported caloric intake has not predicted future weight gain because it is less accurate than objectively measured habitual caloric intake, suggesting that food frequency measures can lead to misleading findings. However, even objectively measured caloric intake showed only a moderate relation to future weight gain, implying that habitual caloric intake fluctuates over time and that it may be necessary to conduct serial assessments of habitual intake to better reflect the time-varying effects of caloric intake on weight gain. PMID:24930597

  20. Antimicrobial drug resistance: "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future".

    PubMed

    Courvalin, Patrice

    2005-10-01

    Evolution of bacteria towards resistance to antimicrobial drugs, including multidrug resistance, is unavoidable because it represents a particular aspect of the general evolution of bacteria that is unstoppable. Therefore, the only means of dealing with this situation is to delay the emergence and subsequent dissemination of resistant bacteria or resistance genes. Resistance to antimicrobial drugs in bacteria can result from mutations in housekeeping structural or regulatory genes. Alternatively, resistance can result from the horizontal acquisition of foreign genetic information. The 2 phenomena are not mutually exclusive and can be associated in the emergence and more efficient spread of resistance. This review discusses the predictable future of the relationship between antimicrobial drugs and bacteria.

  1. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  2. Radiation Transport Modeling and Assessment to Better Predict Radiation Exposure, Dose, and Toxicological Effects to Human Organs on Long Duration Space Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denkins, Pamela; Badhwar, Gautam; Obot, Victor

    2000-01-01

    NASA's long-range plans include possible human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century. Such missions beyond low Earth orbit will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and the missions long, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. The focus of this study is radiation exposure to the blood-forming organs of the NASA astronauts. NASA/JSC developed the Phantom Torso Experiment for Organ Dose Measurements which housed active and passive dosimeters that would monitor and record absorbed radiation levels at vital organ locations. This experiment was conducted during the STS-9 I mission in May '98 and provided the necessary space radiation data for correlation to results obtained from the current analytical models used to predict exposure to the blood-forming organs. Numerous models (i.e., BRYNTRN and HZETRN) have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. However, new models are continually being developed and evaluated. The Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, is to be used and evaluated as a part of the research activity. It is the intent of this research effort to compare the modeled data to the findings from the STS-9 I mission; assess the accuracy and efficiency of this model; and to determine its usefulness for predicting radiation exposure and developing better guidelines for shielding requirements for long duration manned missions.

  3. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  4. Lower “Awake and Fed Thermogenesis” Predicts Future Weight Gain in Subjects With Abdominal Adiposity

    PubMed Central

    Piaggi, Paolo; Krakoff, Jonathan; Bogardus, Clifton; Thearle, Marie S.

    2013-01-01

    Awake and fed thermogenesis (AFT) is the energy expenditure (EE) of the nonactive fed condition above the minimum metabolic requirement during sleep and is composed of the thermic effect of food and the cost of being awake. AFT was estimated from whole-room 24-h EE measures in 509 healthy subjects (368 Native Americans and 141 whites) while subjects consumed a eucaloric diet. Follow-up data were available for 290 Native Americans (median follow-up time: 6.6 years). AFT accounted for ∼10% of 24-h EE and explained a significant portion of deviations from expected energy requirements. Energy intake was the major determinant of AFT. AFT, normalized as a percentage of intake, was inversely related to age and fasting glucose concentration and showed a nonlinear relationship with waist circumference and BMI. Spline analysis demonstrated that AFT becomes inversely related to BMI at an inflection point of 29 kg/m2. The residual variance of AFT, after accounting for covariates, predicted future weight change only in subjects with a BMI >29 kg/m2. AFT may influence daily energy balance, is reduced in obese individuals, and predicts future weight gain in these subjects. Once central adiposity develops, a blunting of AFT may occur that then contributes to further weight gain. PMID:23974925

  5. Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-10-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas.

  6. Major Uncertainties in the Earth System: Using the Present to Help Predict the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2012-12-01

    Radiative forcing of climate over the next century may change by as much as it did during 100 centuries of deglaciation, with potentially catastrophic results for socioeconomic systems. Predicting these changes is difficult because both human and biogeophysical systems that control the forcing are themselves difficult to predict. Earth system models that simulate a broader range of climate forcing are now becoming available, but some of the most influential processes are much less constrained by observations than meteorological and physical ocean processes that have traditionally been included, so uncertainties in future climate (even for a given level of fossil fuel combustion) remains high. Three particular areas of significant uncertainty that have emerged are (1) the strength of positive feedback among circulation, drought, and forest dieback in the tropics; (2) the degree of saturation of terrestrial carbon sinks in the middle latitudes; and (3) the vulnerability of frozen organic matter in high northern latitudes. Earth system models include these effects, but lack strong observational support. Clever use of field campaigns, manipulative experiments, and diagnostic modeling is required to improve confidence in future radiative forcing, which is now dominated by these poorly-constrained mechanisms.

  7. Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

  8. Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

    PubMed

    McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

    2011-08-01

    Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health.

  9. Predicting the future relapse of alcohol-dependent patients from structural and functional brain images.

    PubMed

    Seo, Sambu; Mohr, Johannes; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Heinz, Andreas; Obermayer, Klaus

    2015-11-01

    In alcohol dependence, individual prediction of treatment outcome based on neuroimaging endophenotypes can help to tailor individual therapeutic offers to patients depending on their relapse risk. We built a prediction model for prospective relapse of alcohol-dependent patients that combines structural and functional brain images derived from an experiment in which 46 subjects were exposed to alcohol-related cues. The patient group had been subdivided post hoc regarding relapse behavior defined as a consumption of more than 60 g alcohol for male or more than 40 g alcohol for female patients on one occasion during the 3-month assessment period (16 abstainers and 30 relapsers). Naïve Bayes, support vector machines and learning vector quantization were used to infer prediction models for relapse based on the mean and maximum values of gray matter volume and brain responses on alcohol-related cues within a priori defined regions of interest. Model performance was estimated by leave-one-out cross-validation. Learning vector quantization yielded the model with the highest balanced accuracy (79.4 percent, p < 0.0001; 90 percent sensitivity, 68.8 percent specificity). The most informative individual predictors were functional brain activation features in the right and left ventral tegmental areas and the right ventral striatum, as well as gray matter volume features in left orbitofrontal cortex and right medial prefrontal cortex. In contrast, the best pure clinical model reached only chance-level accuracy (61.3 percent). Our results indicate that an individual prediction of future relapse from imaging measurement outperforms prediction from clinical measurements. The approach may help to target specific interventions at different risk groups.

  10. The Value of Hippocampal and Temporal Horn Volumes and Rates of Change in Predicting Future Conversion to AD

    PubMed Central

    Bartlett, Jonathan W.; Leung, Kelvin K.; Ourselin, Sebastien; Barnes, Josephine

    2013-01-01

    Hippocampal pathology occurs early in Alzheimer disease (AD), and atrophy, measured by volumes and volume changes, may predict which subjects will develop AD. Measures of the temporal horn (TH), which is situated adjacent to the hippocampus, may also indicate early changes in AD. Previous studies suggest that these metrics can predict conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD with conversion and volume change measured concurrently. However, the ability of these metrics to predict future conversion has not been investigated. We compared the abilities of hippocampal, TH, and global measures to predict future conversion from MCI to AD. TH, hippocampi, whole brain, and ventricles were measured using baseline and 12-month scans. Boundary shift integral was used to measure the rate of change. We investigated the prediction of conversion between 12 and 24 months in subjects classified as MCI from baseline to 12 months. All measures were predictive of future conversion. Local and global rates of change were similarly predictive of conversion. There was evidence that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the hippocampal atrophy rate (P=0.023) and that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the TH volume (P=0.036). Prodromal atrophy rates may be useful predictors of future conversion to sporadic AD from amnestic MCI. PMID:22760170

  11. Modeling Spatial Recharge in the Arid Southern Okanagan Basin and Impacts of Future Predicted Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Toews, M. W.

    2007-12-01

    Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of evapotranspiration rates on temperature, and potential shifts in the precipitation amounts and timing. In this study, future predicted climate change from three GCMs (CGCM1 GHG+A, CGCM3.1 A2, and HadCM3 A2) are used to evaluate the sensitivity of recharge in the Oliver region of the Okanagan Valley, south- central British Columbia, where annual precipitation is approximately 300~mm. Temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), while precipitation and solar radiation changes were estimated directly from the GCM data. Results for the region suggest that temperature will increase up to 4°C by the end of the century. Precipitation is expected to decrease in the spring, and increase in the fall. Solar radiation may decrease in the late summer. Shifts in climate, from present to future-predicted, were applied to the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator to generate daily stochastic weather series. Recharge was modeled spatially using output from the HELP hydrologic model applied to one-dimensional soil columns. An extensive valley-bottom soil database was used to determine both the spatial variation and vertical assemblage of soil horizons in the Oliver region. Soil hydraulic parameters were estimated from soil descriptions using pedotransfer functions through the ROSETTA program. Leaf area index (LAI) was estimated from ground-truthed Landsat 5 TM imagery, and surface slope was estimated from a digital elevation model. Irrigation application rates were modified for each climate scenario based on estimates of seasonal crop water demand. Daily irrigation was added to precipitation in irrigation districts using proportions of crop types along with daily climate and evapotranspiration data from LARS-WG. The two dominant crop classes are orchard (including peaches, cherries and apples) and vineyards (grapes). Recharge in

  12. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks.

    PubMed

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  13. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  14. How can Historical Responses of Amazonian Forests to Drought and Fire Inform Future Prediction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brando, P. M.; dos Santos, C.; Alencar, A.; Asner, G. P.; Coe, M. T.; Silverio, D. V.

    2014-12-01

    The responses of Amazonian forests to droughts have important implications for sustainability, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. These implications are all potentially large, diverse, and persistent. During recent years, for example, more than half of the Amazon experienced droughts that were severe enough to cause increased tree mortality, reduced tree growth, and widespread forest fires, committing to the atmosphere between 1-2% of the carbon stocks of Amazon forests. As climate and land use change, Amazon droughts may become even more frequent and severe. However, most of the existing ecosystem models used to predict potential forest trajectories in Amazonia only accounts for the effects of climate forcing, although the interaction between fires and droughts is perhaps a more direct mechanism of abrupt forest degradation, especially for the southeastern Amazon. Thus, projections of future vegetation responses to climate change in Amazonia require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and should also consider interactions of droughts, forest fires, and land-use change.

  15. The UT 8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event & Future Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benecchi, Susan D.; Noll, K.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; Chanover, N.

    2013-10-01

    A mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 hours on UT 8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four telescopes: Telescopio Nationale Galileo in the Canary Islands, the du Pont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, ARC at Apache Point Observatory and the IRTF on Mauna Kea. It is the first full event observed from start to finish for this binary system. The lightcurve is consistent with two objects of similar, but perhaps not identical, size and albedo. We will present the results from this event and predictions for future events which have been refined by this and other mutual event observations obtained since the events began.

  16. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  17. ANTHELMINTICS: THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Richard J.; Verma, Saurabh.; Choudhary, Shivani; Kashyap, Sudhanva; Zheng, Melanie Abongwa Fudan; Robertson, Alan P.

    2015-01-01

    ‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ When we look at drugs that are used to control parasites, we see that new knowledge has been created (discovered) about their modes of action. This knowledge will allow us to predict combinations of drugs which can be used together rationally to increase the spectrum of action and to slow the development of anthelmintic resistance. In this paper we comment on some recent observations of ours on the modes of action of emodepside, diethylcarbamazine and tribendimidine. Emodepside increases the activation of a SLO-1 K+ current inhibiting movement, and diethylcarbamazine has a synergistic effect on the effect of emodepside on the SLO-1 K+ current, increasing the size of the response. The combination may be considered for further testing for therapeutic use. Tribendimidine is a selective cholinergic nematode B-subtype nAChR agonist, producing muscle depolarization and contraction. It has different subtype selectivity to levamisole and may be effective in the presence of some types of levamisole resistance. The new information about the modes of action may aid the design of rational drug combinations designed to slow the development of resistance or increase the spectrum of action. PMID:26138153

  18. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  19. Introducing a Novel Applicant Ranking Tool to Predict Future Resident Performance: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Bowe, Sarah N; Weitzel, Erik K; Hannah, William N; Fitzgerald, Brian M; Kraus, Gregory P; Nagy, Christopher J; Harrison, Stephen A

    2017-01-01

    The purposes of this study are to (1) introduce our novel Applicant Ranking Tool that aligns with the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education competencies and (2) share our preliminary results comparing applicant rank to current performance. After a thorough literature review and multiple roundtable discussions, an Applicant Ranking Tool was created. Feasibility, satisfaction, and critiques were discussed via open feedback session. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using weighted kappa statistic (κ) and Kendall coefficient of concordance (W). Fisher's exact tests evaluated the ability of the tool to stratify performance into the top or bottom half of their class. Internal medicine and anesthesiology residents served as the pilot cohorts. The tool was considered user-friendly for both data input and analysis. Inter-rater reliability was strongest with intradisciplinary evaluation (W = 0.8-0.975). Resident performance was successfully stratified into those functioning in the upper vs. lower half of their class within the Clinical Anesthesia-3 grouping (p = 0.008). This novel Applicant Ranking Tool lends support for the use of both cognitive and noncognitive traits in predicting resident performance. While the ability of this instrument to accurately predict future resident performance will take years to answer, this pilot study suggests the instrument is worthy of ongoing investigation.

  20. Polar predictability: exploring the influence of GCM and regional model uncertainty on future ice sheet climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusch, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating uncertainty in GCMs and regional-scale forecast models is an essential step in the development of climate change predictions. Polar-region skill is particularly important due to the potential for changes affecting both local (ice sheet) and global (sea level) environments through more frequent/intense surface melting and changes in precipitation type/amount. High-resolution, regional-scale models also use GCMs as a source of boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios, thus inheriting a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We examine inter- and intramodel uncertainty through statistics from decadal climatologies and analyses of variability based on self-organizing maps (SOMs), a nonlinear data analysis tool. We evaluate a 19-member CMIP5 subset and the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) during polar melt seasons (boreal/austral summer) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Regional-model uncertainty is examined with a subset of these GCMs driving Polar WRF simulations. Decadal climatologies relative to a reference (recent: the ERA-Interim reanalysis; future: a skillful modern GCM) identify model uncertainty in bulk, e.g., BNU-ESM is too warm, CMCC-CM too cold. While quite useful for model screening, diagnostic benefit is often indirect. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. Joint analysis of reference and test models summarizes the variability of multiple realizations of climate (all the models), benchmarks each model versus the reference (frequency analysis helps identify the patterns behind GCM bias), and places each GCM in a common context. Joint SOM analysis of CESMLE members shows how initial conditions contribute to differences in modeled climates, providing useful information about internal variability, such as contributions from each member to overall uncertainty using pattern frequencies. In the

  1. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287). Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health) approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health), or not (less than full health), was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism) retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing also significantly

  2. Predicting Future Morphological Changes of Lesions from Radiotracer Uptake in 18F-FDG-PET Images

    PubMed Central

    Bagci, Ulas; Yao, Jianhua; Miller-Jaster, Kirsten; Chen, Xinjian; Mollura, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a novel computational framework to enable automated identification of texture and shape features of lesions on 18F-FDG-PET images through a graph-based image segmentation method. The proposed framework predicts future morphological changes of lesions with high accuracy. The presented methodology has several benefits over conventional qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, due to its fully quantitative nature and high accuracy in each step of (i) detection, (ii) segmentation, and (iii) feature extraction. To evaluate our proposed computational framework, thirty patients received 2 18F-FDG-PET scans (60 scans total), at two different time points. Metastatic papillary renal cell carcinoma, cerebellar hemongioblastoma, non-small cell lung cancer, neurofibroma, lymphomatoid granulomatosis, lung neoplasm, neuroendocrine tumor, soft tissue thoracic mass, nonnecrotizing granulomatous inflammation, renal cell carcinoma with papillary and cystic features, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, metastatic alveolar soft part sarcoma, and small cell lung cancer were included in this analysis. The radiotracer accumulation in patients' scans was automatically detected and segmented by the proposed segmentation algorithm. Delineated regions were used to extract shape and textural features, with the proposed adaptive feature extraction framework, as well as standardized uptake values (SUV) of uptake regions, to conduct a broad quantitative analysis. Evaluation of segmentation results indicates that our proposed segmentation algorithm has a mean dice similarity coefficient of 85.75±1.75%. We found that 28 of 68 extracted imaging features were correlated well with SUVmax (p<0.05), and some of the textural features (such as entropy and maximum probability) were superior in predicting morphological changes of radiotracer uptake regions longitudinally, compared to single intensity feature such as SUVmax. We also found that integrating textural features with SUV measurements

  3. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    PubMed

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  4. Pattern of recovery for transient complete heart block after open heart surgery for congenital heart disease: duration alone predicts risk of late complete heart block.

    PubMed

    Aziz, Peter F; Serwer, Gerald A; Bradley, David J; LaPage, Martin J; Hirsch, Jennifer C; Bove, Edward L; Ohye, Richard G; Dick, Macdonald

    2013-04-01

    Transient complete heart block (TCHB) is defined as complete interruption of atrioventricular conduction (AVC) after cardiac surgery followed by return of conduction. This study aimed to assess the risk for the development of late complete heart block (LCHB) after recovery of TCHB and to examine the electrocardiographic and electrophysiologic properties of the AVC system after TCHB. Of the 44 patients in this study who experienced TCHB, 37 recovered completely. Seven patients progressed from TCHB to intermittent CHB or LCHB requiring pacemaker implantation. Preoperative, early postoperative, and late postoperative electrocardiograms as well as postoperative atrial stimulation were obtained. The results showed that the median duration of TCHB was 5 days in the TCHB group compared with 9 days in the LCHB group (p = 0.01). All 37 subjects with TCHB recovered AVC within 12 days, but only two with LCHB did so (p = 0.02). The risk of LCHB for the patients with 7 days of postoperative TCHB or longer was 13 times greater than for the patients with fewer than 7 days of TCHB (p = 0.01). The median late postoperative PR interval was slightly but significantly longer in the LCHB group than in the TCHB group (p = 0.02). In contrast, the electrophysiologic properties between the two groups did not differ significantly. From those findings, we concluded that delayed recovery of AVC after surgical TCHB (≥7 days), but not electrophysiologic properties of recovered AVC assessed early in the postoperative period strongly, predicts risk of LCHB. Follow-up evaluation of AVC is particularly indicated for the delayed recovery group.

  5. The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on judged annoyance. [noise predictions and noise measurements of jet aircrafts and human reactions to the noise intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, K. P.

    1979-01-01

    The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on humans and the annoyance factor are examined. A nine point numerical category scaling technique is utilized for the study. Changes in the spectral characteristics of aircraft sounds caused by atmospheric attenuation are discussed. The effect of Doppler shifts using aircraft noises with minimal pure tone content is reported. The spectral content of sounds independent of duration and Doppler shift are examined by analysis of variance.

  6. The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

    PubMed

    Mahony, Martin

    2014-02-01

    Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

  7. Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

    PubMed Central

    Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

  8. A comparison of adolescent smoking initiation measures on predicting future smoking behavior

    PubMed Central

    Azagba, Sunday; Baskerville, Neill Bruce; Minaker, Leia

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Evidence suggests that age at smoking initiation has implications for tobacco use, nicotine dependence, and resulting long-term health and chronic disease outcomes. The objective of the current study was to examine two different measures of smoking onset and to compare their validity in predicting future adolescent smoking survey. Methods Data from grades 9–12 students who participated in the 2012/2013 Youth Smoking Survey, a nationally-generalizable Canadian survey, and who had ever tried a cigarette, even a few puffs (n = 8126) were used in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the association between age at smoking onset and current smoking behavior. Results Both “age at first puff” and “age at first whole cigarette” were significantly associated with current smoking status. Specifically, a delay of one year in the age at first puff was associated with lower odds of being a current smoker by 24% (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.73–0.79). Similarly, high school students who smoked their first whole cigarette at old age were less likely to report being a current smoker (AOR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.62–0.71). Conclusion Efforts to prevent smoking uptake among youth, especially younger youth, are especially important in tobacco control efforts. PMID:26844068

  9. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  10. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    PubMed

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  11. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  12. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  13. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose for this workshop can be summed up by the question: Are there relevant analogs to planetary (meaning the Moon and Mars) to be found in polar exploration on Earth? The answer in my opinion is yes or else there would be no reason for this workshop. However, I think some background information would be useful to provide a context for my opinion on this matter. As all of you are probably aware, NASA has been set on a path that, in its current form, will eventually lead to putting human crews on the surface of the Moon and Mars for extended (months to years) in duration. For the past 50 V 60 years, starting not long after the end of World War II, exploration of the Antarctic has accumulated a significant body of experience that is highly analogous to our anticipated activities on the Moon and Mars. This relevant experience base includes: h Long duration (1 year and 2 year) continuous deployments by single crews, h Established a substantial outpost with a single deployment event to support these crews, h Carried out long distance (100 to 1000 kilometer) traverses, with and without intermediate support h Equipment and processes evolved based on lessons learned h International cooperative missions This is not a new or original thought; many people within NASA, including the most recent two NASA Administrators, have commented on the recognizable parallels between exploration in the Antarctic and on the Moon or Mars. But given that level of recognition, relatively little has been done, that I am aware of, to encourage these two exploration communities to collaborate in a significant way. [Slide 4] I will return to NASA s plans and the parallels with Antarctic traverses in a moment, but I want to spend a moment to explain the objective of this workshop and the anticipated products. We have two full days set aside for this workshop. This first day will be taken up with a series of presentations prepared by individuals with experience that extends back as far as the

  14. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  15. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere, but future urban growth has not been considered widely to predict the future regional climate change because it is hard to predict the future land-use changes. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on Cellular Automata (CA) technique to predict the future land-use (especially, urban growth) changes. Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the research area in this study, is the most explosively developed region in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. SLEUTH was calibrated to know the pattern and process of the urban growth and expansion in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from WAter Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) historical trends of urban growth (SC1), (2) future urban policy and plan (SC2), (3) ecological protection and growth (SC3). We used the FNL data of NCEP/NCAR for one month, Oct. in 2005 to evaluate the performance of the WRF on the long-term climate simulation and compared results of WRF with the ASOS/AWS (Automated Surface Observing Systems and Automated Weather System) observation data of the Korea Meteorology Administration. Based on the accuracy of the model, we performed various numerical experiments by the urban growth scenarios using the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany on Oct. for 5 years (2046-2050), respectively. The difference of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA consequently caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase in the urban area. PBL height with a maximum of about 200m also appeared locally in newly

  16. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  17. Relative role of parameter vs. climate uncertainty for predictions of future Southeastern U.S. pine carbon cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jersild, A.; Thomas, R. Q.; Brooks, E.; Teskey, R. O.; Wynne, R. H.; Arthur, D.; Gonzalez, C.; Thomas, V. A.; Fox, T. D.; Smallman, L.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions of the how forest productivity and carbon sequestration will respond to climate change are essential for assisting land managers in adapting to future climate. However, current predictions can include considerable uncertainty that is often not well quantified. To address the need for better quantification of uncertainty, we calculated and compared parameter and climate prediction uncertainty for predictions of Southeastern U.S. pine forest productivity. We used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based data assimilation technique to fuse regionally widespread and diverse datasets with the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth model (3PG) model. The datasets incorporated include biomass observations from forest research plots that are part of the Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) project, photosynthesis and evaporation observations from loblolly pine Ameriflux sites, and productivity responses to elevated CO2 from the Duke Free Air C site. These spatially and temporally diverse data sets give our unique analysis a more accurately measured uncertainty by constraining complimentary components of the model. In our analysis, parameter uncertainty was quantified using simulations that integrate across the posterior parameter distributions, while climate model uncertainty was quantified using downscaled RCP 8.5 simulations from twenty different CMIP5 climate models. Overall, we found that the uncertainty in future productivity of Southeastern U.S. managed pine forests that was associated with parameterization is comparable to the uncertainty associated with climate simulations. Our results indicate that reducing parameterization in ecosystem model development can improve future predictions of forest productivity and carbon sequestration, but uncertainties in future climate predictions also need to be properly quantified and communicated to forest owners and managers.

  18. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

  19. Duration of first remission, hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index and patient age predict survival of patients with AML transplanted in second CR.

    PubMed

    Michelis, F V; Atenafu, E G; Gupta, V; Kim, D D; Kuruvilla, J; Lambie, A; Lipton, J H; Loach, D; Messner, H A

    2013-11-01

    Allo-SCT is potentially curative for patients with AML. Patients transplanted in CR2 tend to experience inferior survival compared with those in CR1. We retrospectively investigated the impact of pretransplant variables on the outcome of patients transplanted with AML in CR2. Ninety-four patients with AML in CR2 received a transplant between 1999 and 2011 with myeloablative (MA, n=65) or reduced-intensity conditioning regimens (RIC, n=29). Variables investigated included cytogenetic risk at diagnosis (SWOG), hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI), CMV status, duration of CR1 and age. Median age of all patients was 47 years (range 18-70). Multivariable analysis for OS identified three prognostically significant categories: a favorable risk group included patients with duration of CR1 ≥6 months, age <55 years and HCT-CI score 0-3, an intermediate risk group with duration of CR1 ≥6 months, age <55 years and HCT-CI score 4-5 and a high-risk group with duration of CR1 <6 months or age ≥55 years (P=0.0001) with 5-year survivals of 53%, 31% and 6%, respectively. Acute and chronic GVHD did not influence this risk stratification. The stated risk factors discriminate patients with different OS and may assist in decision making for allo-SCT.

  20. Remote science support during MARS2013: testing a map-based system of data processing and utilization for future long-duration planetary missions.

    PubMed

    Losiak, Anna; Gołębiowska, Izabela; Orgel, Csilla; Moser, Linda; MacArthur, Jane; Boyd, Andrea; Hettrich, Sebastian; Jones, Natalie; Groemer, Gernot

    2014-05-01

    MARS2013 was an integrated Mars analog field simulation in eastern Morocco performed by the Austrian Space Forum between February 1 and 28, 2013. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the system of data processing and utilization adopted by the Remote Science Support (RSS) team during this mission. The RSS team procedures were designed to optimize operational efficiency of the Flightplan, field crew, and RSS teams during a long-term analog mission with an introduced 10 min time delay in communication between "Mars" and Earth. The RSS workflow was centered on a single-file, easy-to-use, spatially referenced database that included all the basic information about the conditions at the site of study, as well as all previous and planned activities. This database was prepared in Google Earth software. The lessons learned from MARS2013 RSS team operations are as follows: (1) using a spatially referenced database is an efficient way of data processing and data utilization in a long-term analog mission with a large amount of data to be handled, (2) mission planning based on iterations can be efficiently supported by preparing suitability maps, (3) the process of designing cartographical products should start early in the planning stages of a mission and involve representatives of all teams, (4) all team members should be trained in usage of cartographical products, (5) technical problems (e.g., usage of a geological map while wearing a space suit) should be taken into account when planning a work flow for geological exploration, (6) a system that helps the astronauts to efficiently orient themselves in the field should be designed as part of future analog studies.

  1. Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task

    PubMed Central

    Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time. PMID:23325347

  2. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    PubMed Central

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Halasa, Tariq; Toft, Nils; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists of several steps to evaluate lifetime milk production and individual cow somatic cell counts and to finally predict the average production for each day that the cow is alive. Herd recording data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to train and test a model predicting milk production (including factors associated with milk yield, somatic cell count, and the survival of individual cows). All estimated parameters were either herd- or cow-specific. The model prediction deviated, on average, less than 0.5 kg from the future average milk production of dairy cows in multiple herds after adjusting for the effect of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach presented in this paper is that it requires no specific knowledge of disease status or any other information beyond herd recorded milk yields, somatic cell counts, and reproductive status. PMID:28261585

  3. Does a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy help predict future essential hypertension? Findings from a prospective pregnancy cohort study.

    PubMed

    Callaway, L K; Mamun, A; McIntyre, H D; Williams, G M; Najman, J M; Nitert, M D; Lawlor, D A

    2013-05-01

    Hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) is considered an important determinant in the prediction of future hypertension. The aim of this study is to examine whether HDP improves prediction of future hypertension, over prediction based on established risk factors measured during pregnancy. We used a community based cohort study of 2117 women who received antenatal care at a major hospital in Brisbane between 1981 and 1983 and had blood pressure assessed 21 years after the index pregnancy. Of these 2117 women, 193 (9.0%) experienced HDP and 345 (16.3%) had hypertension at 21 years postpartum. For women with HDP, the odds of being hypertensive at 21 years postpartum were 2.46 (95% CI 1.70, 3.56), adjusted for established risk factors including age, education, race, alcohol, cigarettes, exercise and body mass index. Addition of HDP did not improve the prediction model that included these established risk factors, with the area under the curve of receiver operator (AUROC) increasing from 0.710 to 0.716 (P-value for difference in AUROC=0.185). Our findings suggest that HDP is strongly and independently associated with future hypertension, and women who experience this condition should be counselled regarding lifestyle modification and careful ongoing blood pressure monitoring. However, the development of HDP during pregnancy does not improve our capacity to predict future hypertension, over risk factors identifiable at the time of pregnancy. This suggests that counseling regarding lifestyle modification and ongoing blood pressure monitoring might reasonably be provided to all pregnant and postpartum women with identifiable risk factors for future hypertension.

  4. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  5. What Do Children Know about Their Futures: Do Children's Expectations Predict Outcomes in Middle Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallerod, Bjorn

    2011-01-01

    Are children's statements about their futures related to outcomes in middle age? In 1966 almost 13,500 children ages 12-13 were asked whether they thought their futures would be worse, similar or better as compared to others of their own age. It was shown that children with low, and surprisingly high, expectations did suffer from increased…

  6. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  7. Forming Attitudes that Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude-Behavior Relation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracin, Dolores

    2006-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of…

  8. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

    PubMed

    Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.

  9. Future rainfall variability in Indonesia under different ENSO and IOD composites based on decadal predictions of CMIP5 datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilhaqqi Qalbi, Harisa; Faqih, Akhmad; Hidayat, Rahmat

    2017-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are amongst important climate drivers that play a significant role in driving rainfall variability in Indonesia, especially on inter-annual timescales. The phenomena are suggested to have an association with interdecadal climate variability through the modulation of their oscillations. This study aims to analyse the characteristics of future rainfall variability in Indonesia during different condition of ENSO and IOD events based on decadal predictions of near-term climate change CMIP5 GCM data outputs up to year 2035. Monthly data of global rainfall data with 5x5 km grid resolutions of CHIRPS dataset is used in this study to represent historical rainfall variability as well to serve as a reference for future rainfall predictions. The current and future rainfall and sea surface temperature data have been bias corrected before performing the analysis. Given the comparison between rainfall composites during El-Nino and positive IOD events, the study showed that the future rainfall conditions in Indonesia will become drier than the historical condition resulted from the same composite approach. In general, this study showed the Indonesian rainfall variability in the future is expected to respond differently to a different combination of ENSO and IOD conditions.

  10. Future daily PM10 concentrations prediction by combining regression models and feedforward backpropagation models with principle component analysis (PCA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ul-Saufie, Ahmad Zia; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ramli, Nor Azam; Rosaida, Norrimi; Hamid, Hazrul Abdul

    2013-10-01

    Future PM10 concentration prediction is very important because it can help local authorities to enact preventative measures to reduce the impact of air pollution. The aims of this study are to improve prediction of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Feedforward backpropagation (FFBP) by combining them with principle component analysis for predicting future (next day, next two-day and next three-day) PM10 concentration in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Annual hourly observations for PM10 in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia from January 2003 to December 2010 were selected for predicting PM10 concentration level. Eighty percent of the monitoring records were used for training and twenty percent were used for validation of the models. Three accuracy measures - Prediction Accuracy (PA), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Index of Agreement (IA), as well as two error measures - Normalized Absolute Error (NAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results show that PCA models combined with MLR and PCA with FFBP improved MLR and FFBP models for all three days in advance of predicting PM10 concentration, with reduced errors by as much as 18.1% (PCA-MLR) and 17.68% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 19.2% (PCA-MLR) and 22.1% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 18.7% (PCA-MLR) and 22.79% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions. Including PCA improved the accuracy of the models by as much as by 12.9% (PCA-MLR) and 13.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 32.3% (PCA-MLR) and 14.7% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 46.1% (PCA-MLR) and 19.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions.

  11. Predicted Megafire Locations under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorentz, K. A.; Drury, S.; Raffuse, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past several years, large high-intensity wildfires, or "megafires," have set records for the greatest burn area and most costly fires in several U.S. states. Megafires can release many tons of fine particles and other pollutants that are hazardous to human health over a short period of time. Under future climate scenarios, megafires may increase in some regions. The danger of smoke exposure from megafires in the future depends on several spatial factors, including the likelihood of megafire occurrence, emission rates, air transport patterns, and population density. We combined climatological transport modeling, smoke emission rates, and population density to determine the areas within the U.S. where a megafire would result in the greatest human exposure to smoke. Coupled with a synthesis of recent studies on the likelihood of megafire occurrence under future climate scenarios, these results provide a view of future smoke management and emergency response needs.

  12. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  13. Long Duration Sorbent Testbed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, David F.; Knox, James C.; Long, David A.; Miller, Lee; Cmaric, Gregory; Thomas, John

    2016-01-01

    The Long Duration Sorbent Testbed (LDST) is a flight experiment demonstration designed to expose current and future candidate carbon dioxide removal system sorbents to an actual crewed space cabin environment to assess and compare sorption working capacity degradation resulting from long term operation. An analysis of sorbent materials returned to Earth after approximately one year of operation in the International Space Station's (ISS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) indicated as much as a 70% loss of working capacity of the silica gel desiccant material at the extreme system inlet location, with a gradient of capacity loss down the bed. The primary science objective is to assess the degradation of potential sorbents for exploration class missions and ISS upgrades when operated in a true crewed space cabin environment. A secondary objective is to compare degradation of flight test to a ground test unit with contaminant dosing to determine applicability of ground testing.

  14. Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

    PubMed

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Willick, Stuart E

    2016-05-01

    The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000-09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL.

  15. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  16. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    SciTech Connect

    Petticrew, Mark . E-mail: mark@msoc.mrc.gla.ac.uk; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-15

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers.

  17. It is hard to predict the future: the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Ackerman, G A

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future.

  18. Hierarchy of gene expression data is predictive of future breast cancer outcome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-10-01

    We calculate measures of hierarchy in gene and tissue networks of breast cancer patients. We find that the likelihood of metastasis in the future is correlated with increased values of network hierarchy for expression networks of cancer-associated genes, due to the correlated expression of cancer-specific pathways. Conversely, future metastasis and quick relapse times are negatively correlated with the values of network hierarchy in the expression network of all genes, due to the dedifferentiation of gene pathways and circuits. These results suggest that the hierarchy of gene expression may be useful as an additional biomarker for breast cancer prognosis.

  19. How well can we predict soil respiration with climate indicators, now and in the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berridge, C. T.; Hadju, L. H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2014-02-01

    Soils contain the largest terrestrial store of carbon; three times greater than present atmospheric concentrations, whilst the annual soil-atmosphere exchange of carbon is an order of magnitude larger than all anthropogenic effluxes. Quantifying future pool sizes and fluxes is therefore sensitive to small methodological errors, yet unfortunately remains the second largest area of uncertainty in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections. The flux of carbon from heterotrophic decomposition of soil organic matter is parameterized as a rate constant. This parameter is calculated from observed total soil carbon efflux and contemporaneously observed temperature and soil moisture. This metric is then used to simulate future rates of heterotrophic respiration, as driven by the projections of future climate- temperature and precipitation. We examine two underlying assumptions: how well current climate (mean temperature and precipitation) can account for contemporary soil respiration, and whether an observational parameter derived from this data will be valid in the future. We find mean climate values to be of some use in capturing total soil respiration to the 95% confidence interval, but note an inability to distinguish between subtropical and Mediterranean fluxes, or wetland-grassland and wetland-forest fluxes. Regarding the future, we present a collection of CO2 enrichment studies demonstrating a strong agreement in soil respiration response (a 25% increase) independent of changes in temperature and moisture, however these data are spatially limited to the northern mid-latitudes. In order to "future-proof" simple statistical parameters used to calculate the output from heterotrophic soil respiration, we propose a correction factor derived from empirical observations, but note the spatial and temporal limitations. In conclusion, there seems to be no sound basis to assume that models with the best fit to contemporary data will produce the best estimates of

  20. Enduring Risk? Old Criminal Records and Predictions of Future Criminal Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurlychek, Megan C.; Brame, Robert; Bushway, Shawn D.

    2007-01-01

    It is well accepted that criminal records impose collateral consequences on offenders. Such records affect access to public housing, student financial aid, welfare benefits, and voting rights. An axiom of these policies is that individuals with criminal records--even old criminal records--exhibit significantly higher risk of future criminal…

  1. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  2. Future global and regional climate change: From near-term prediction to long-term projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.; Collins, M.; Power, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Christensen, J. H.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC AR5 assessed results from a hierarchy of different climate models on how climate might change in the future from decades to millennia. The projections are based on a series of new climate models and for new scenarios. They are very consistent with projections in AR4 and confirm widespread changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land under emission scenarios without mitigation. In the late 21st century and beyond, the warming is dominated by the total emissions of CO2, and many changes will persist for centuries even if emissions were stopped. Stabilization of global temperature at 2°C above the preindustrial value for example, requires strong emission reductions over the 21st century. In the near term and locally however, interannual and decadal climate variability remains a large and mostly irreducible component of the uncertainty in projections. Improving the quality of information on regional climate change and improving the ability of the scientific community to perform near-term climate predictions are key challenges for the future. The development of a consensus in the climate science community on (i) the major directions for future model development and (ii) the scope of future coordinated model experiments will help serve the needs of both future IPCC assessments and the wider research community.

  3. The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale; Gyawali, Rabi

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

  4. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-01-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems. PMID:27185194

  5. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records.

    PubMed

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A; Dudley, Joel T

    2016-05-17

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name "deep patient". We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems.

  6. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-05-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems.

  7. Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

  8. Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

    PubMed

    Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record

  9. Commentary: Children and Predictive Genomic Testing: Disease Prevention, Research Protection, and Our Future

    PubMed Central

    Tercyak, Kenneth P.; Wilfond, Benjamin S.

    2011-01-01

    Genetic testing offered by direct-to-consumer companies—herein referred to as “predictive genomic testing”—has come under federal scrutiny. Critics claim testing yields uninterpretable and potentially harmful information. Supporters assert individuals have a right to this information, which could catalyze preventive health actions. Despite contentions that predictive genomic testing is a tool of primary disease prevention, little discussion has focused on its use with children. This partly stems from concerns expressed in existing professional guidelines about the potential for psychological and behavioral harm to children engendered by predictive genetic tests for Mendelian diseases. Conducting research to understand the actual benefits and harms is important for policy development and practice guidance and can be ethically justified within the pediatric regulatory framework of research that offers a prospect of direct benefit. Child health psychologists are well poised to contribute to this research effort, and promote the translation of genomic discoveries to improve pediatric medicine. PMID:21816897

  10. Print-speech convergence predicts future reading outcomes in early readers

    PubMed Central

    Preston, Jonathan L.; Molfese, Peter J.; Frost, Stephen J.; Mencl, W. Einar; Fulbright, Robert K.; Hoeft, Fumiko; Landi, Nicole; Shankweiler, Donald; Pugh, Kenneth R.

    2015-01-01

    Becoming a skilled reader requires building a functional neurocircuitry for printed language processing that converges on spoken language processing networks. In this longitudinal study, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to examine whether convergence for printed and spoken language in beginning readers predicts reading outcomes two years later. Print-speech co-activation across the left hemisphere reading network predicted later reading achievement beyond the effects of brain activity for either modality alone; moreover, co-activation effects accounted for variance in later reading after controlling for initial reading performance. Within the reading network, effects of co-activation were significant in bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and left inferior parietal cortex and fusiform. The contribution of left and right IFG differed, with more co-activation in left IFG predicting better achievement but more co-activation in right IFG predicting poorer achievement. Findings point to the centrality of print-speech convergence in building an efficient reading circuitry in children. PMID:26589242

  11. Reconstruction techniques of erythemal UV-radiation and future UV predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, J. E.; Rieder, H. E.; Simic, S.; Weihs, P.

    2009-04-01

    Since the discovery of anthropogenic ozone depletion more than 30 year ago, the scientific community has shown an increasing interest in UV-B radiation and started to monitor UV-radiation. However, difficulties involved in the routine operation and maintenance of the instruments have limited the length of reliable data records to about two decades. Further the number of places where they were measured, resulting in a set of observations too short and too sparse for a good understanding of past UV changes. Moreover state of the art climate models do not calculate future scenarios of UV-doses. Therefore detailed information about past and future UV-trends are lacking. Reconstruction techniques are indispensable to derive long-term time series of UV-radiation and fill this gap. Apart from the astronomical parameters, like solar zenith angle and sun-earth-distance, UV radiation is strongly influenced by clouds, ozone and surface albedo. We developed and evaluated a reconstruction technique for UV-doses that first calculates the UV-doses under clear-sky condition and afterwards applies corrections in order to take cloud effects into account. Since the input parameters cloud cover, total ozone column and surface albedo are available from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), we applied our reconstruction technique also for future scenarios using REMO data as input. Hence we are able to derive a seamless UV long-term time series from the past to the future. Our method was applied for the high alpine station Hoher Sonnblick (3108m) situated in Austrian Alps.

  12. Do PCL-R scores from state or defense experts best predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders?

    PubMed

    Boccaccini, Marcus T; Turner, Darrel B; Murrie, Daniel C; Rufino, Katrina A

    2012-06-01

    In a recent study of sex offender civil commitment proceedings, Murrie et al. (Psychol Public Policy Law 15:19-53, 2009) found that state-retained experts consistently assigned higher PCL-R total scores than defense-retained experts for the same offenders (Cohen's d > .83). This finding raises an important question about the validity of these discrepant scores: Which type of score, state or defense evaluator, provides the most useful information about risk? We examined the ability of PCL-R total scores from state and defense evaluators to predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders (N = 38). For comparison, we also examined predictive validity when two state experts evaluated the same offender (N = 32). Agreement between evaluators was low for cases with opposing experts (ICCA,1 = .43 to .52) and for cases with two state experts (ICCA,1 = .40). Nevertheless, scores from state and defense experts demonstrated similar levels of predictive validity (AUC values in the .70 range), although scores from different types of state evaluators (corrections-contracted vs. prosecution-retained) did not. The finding of mean differences between opposing evaluator scores, but similar levels of predictive validity, suggests that scores from opposing experts in SVP cases may need to be interpreted differently depending on who assigned them. Findings have important implications for understanding how rater disagreement may relate to predictive validity.

  13. Reconstruction of past and prediction of future erythemal UV-radiation at two sites in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weihs, Philipp; Rieder, Harald; Wagner, Jochen; Simic, Stana; Dameris, Martin

    2010-05-01

    Since the discovery of anthropogenic ozone depletion more than 30 year ago, the scientific community has shown an increasing interest in UV-B radiation and started to monitor UV-radiation. However, difficulties involved in the routine operation and maintenance of the instruments have limited the length of reliable data records to about two decades. Further the number of places where they were measured, result in a set of observations too short and too sparse for a good understanding of past UV changes. Moreover state of the art climate models do not calculate future scenarios of UV-doses. Therefore detailed information about past and future UV-trends are lacking. Reconstruction techniques are indispensable to derive long-term time series of UV-radiation and fill this gap. Apart from the astronomical parameters, like solar zenith angle and sun-earth-distance, UV radiation is strongly influenced by clouds, ozone and surface albedo. We developed and evaluated a reconstruction technique for UV-doses (from regional climate model output) that first calculates the UV-doses under clear-sky condition and afterwards applies corrections in order to take cloud effects into account. Since the input parameters cloud cover, total ozone column and surface albedo are available from the Regional Climate Models REMO and E39/C (DLR-model), we applied our reconstruction technique for the past and for future scenarios using REMO and E39/C data as input. Hence we simulated a seamless UV long-term time series from the past to the future. Our method was applied for the high alpine station Hoher Sonnblick (3106m) situated in the Austrian Alps and for Vienna (170m) in the Eastern part of the Austrian territory. We first analyse the accuracy of the obtained backward reconstruction and intercompare the modelled and measured input parameters ozone, cloud modification factor, and ground albedo. Several approaches to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction are presented. Then we present the

  14. GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Ou, Mi-Lim

    2004-01-01

    This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in ths direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated

  15. The histological quantification of alpha-smooth muscle actin predicts future graft fibrosis in pediatric liver transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Varma, Sharat; Stéphenne, Xavier; Komuta, Mina; Bouzin, Caroline; Ambroise, Jerome; Smets, Françoise; Reding, Raymond; Sokal, Etienne M

    2017-02-01

    Activated hepatic stellate cells express cytoplasmic ASMA prior to secreting collagen and consequent liver fibrosis. We hypothesized that quantifying ASMA could predict severity of future fibrosis after LT. For this, 32 pairs of protocol biopsies, that is, "baseline" and "follow-up" biopsies taken at 1- to 2-year intervals from 18 stable pediatric LT recipients, transplanted between 2006 and 2012 were selected. Morphometric quantification of "ASMA-positive area percentage" was performed on the baseline biopsy. Histological and fibrosis assessment using Metavir and LAFSc was performed on all biopsies. The difference of fibrosis severity between the "baseline" and "follow-up" was termed "prospective change in fibrosis." Significant association was seen between extent of ASMA positivity on baseline biopsy and "prospective change in fibrosis" using Metavir (P=.02), cumulative LAFSc (P=.02), and portal LAFSc (P=.01) values. ASMA-positive area percentage >1.05 predicted increased fibrosis on next biopsy with 90.0% specificity. Additionally, an association was observed between extent of ASMA positivity and concomitant ductular reaction (P=.06), but not with histological inflammation in the portal tract or lobular area. Hence, ASMA quantification can predict the future course of fibrosis.

  16. Foraging habitat for shorebirds in southeastern Missouri and its predicted future availability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    Water management to protect agriculture in alluvial floodplains often conflicts with wildlife use of seasonal floodwater. Such is the case along the Mississippi River in southeastern Missouri where migrating shorebirds forage in shallow-flooded fields. I estimated the current availability of habitat for foraging shorebirds within the New Madrid and St. Johns Basins based on daily river elevations (1943–2009), under assumptions that shorebirds forage in open habitat with water depth <15 cm and use mudflats for 3 days after exposure. The area of shorebird foraging habitat, based on replicated 50-year random samples, averaged 975 ha per day during spring and 33 ha per day during fall. Adjustments to account for habitat quality associated with different water depths, duration of mudflat exposure, intra-seasonal availability, and state of agricultural crops, indicated the equivalent of 494 ha daily of optimal habitat during spring and 11 ha during fall. Proposed levees and pumps to protect cropland would reduce shorebird foraging habitat by 80 %: to 211 ha (108 optimal ha) per day during spring and 9 ha (<3 optimal ha) per day during fall. Alternative water management that allows natural flooding below a prescribed elevation would retain nearly all existing shorebird foraging habitat during fall and about 60 % of extant habitat during spring.

  17. Validation of Afterbody Aeroheating Predictions for Planetary Probes: Status and Future Work

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael J.; Brown, James L.; Sinha, Krishnendu; Candler, Graham V.; Milos, Frank S.; Prabhu, DInesh K.

    2005-01-01

    A review of the relevant flight conditions and physical models for planetary probe afterbody aeroheating calculations is given. Readily available sources of afterbody flight data and published attempts to computationally simulate those flights are summarized. A current status of the application of turbulence models to afterbody flows is presented. Finally, recommendations for additional analysis and testing that would reduce our uncertainties in our ability to accurately predict base heating levels are given.

  18. Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area.

    PubMed

    Alba-Tercedor, Javier; Sáinz-Bariáin, Marta; Poquet, José Manuel; Rodríguez-López, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.

  19. Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area

    PubMed Central

    Sáinz-Bariáin, Marta; Poquet, José Manuel; Rodríguez-López, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area. PMID:28135280

  20. Lookup Tables for Predicting CHF and Film-Boiling Heat Transfer: Past, Present, and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K. H.; Guo, Y.; Vasic, A.; El Nakla, M.; Peng, S.W.; Yang, J.; Cheng, S.C.

    2005-10-15

    Lookup tables (LUTs) have been used widely for the prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) and film-boiling heat transfer for water-cooled tubes. LUTs are basically normalized data banks. They eliminate the need to choose between the many different CHF and film-boiling heat transfer prediction methods available.The LUTs have many advantages; e.g., (a) they are simple to use, (b) there is no iteration required, (c) they have a wide range of applications, (d) they may be applied to nonaqueous fluids using fluid-to-fluid modeling relationships, and (e) they are based on a very large database. Concerns associated with the use of LUTs include (a) there are fluctuations in the value of the CHF or film-boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) with pressure, mass flux, and quality, (b) there are large variations in the CHF or the film-boiling HTC between the adjacent table entries, and (c) there is a lack or scarcity of data at certain flow conditions.Work on the LUTs is continuing. This will resolve the aforementioned concerns and improve the LUT prediction capability. This work concentrates on better smoothing of the LUT entries, increasing the database, and improving models at conditions where data are sparse or absent.

  1. Print-Speech Convergence Predicts Future Reading Outcomes in Early Readers.

    PubMed

    Preston, Jonathan L; Molfese, Peter J; Frost, Stephen J; Mencl, W Einar; Fulbright, Robert K; Hoeft, Fumiko; Landi, Nicole; Shankweiler, Donald; Pugh, Kenneth R

    2016-01-01

    Becoming a skilled reader requires building a functional neurocircuitry for printed-language processing that integrates with spoken-language-processing networks. In this longitudinal study, functional MRI (fMRI) was used to examine convergent activation for printed and spoken language (print-speech coactivation) in selected regions implicated in printed-language processing (the reading network). We found that print-speech coactivation across the left-hemisphere reading network in beginning readers predicted reading achievement 2 years later beyond the effects of brain activity for either modality alone; moreover, coactivation effects accounted for variance in later reading after controlling for initial reading performance. Within the reading network, effects of coactivation were significant in bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and left inferior parietal cortex and fusiform gyrus. The contribution of left and right IFG differed, with more coactivation in left IFG predicting better achievement but more coactivation in right IFG predicting poorer achievement. Findings point to the centrality of print-speech convergence in building an efficient reading circuitry in children.

  2. In silico ADMET prediction: recent advances, current challenges and future trends.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Feixiong; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

    2013-01-01

    There are numerous small molecular compounds around us to affect our health, such as drugs, pesticides, food additives, industrial chemicals, and environmental pollutants. Over decades, properties related to absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) have become one of the most important issues to assess the effects or risks of these compounds on human body. Recent high-rate drug withdrawals increase the pressure on regulators and pharmaceutical industry to improve preclinical safety testing. Since in vivo and in vitro evaluations are costly and laborious, in silico techniques have been widely used to estimate these properties. In this review, we would briefly describe the recent advances of in silico ADMET prediction, with emphasis on substructure pattern recognition method that we developed recently. Challenges and limitations in the area of in silico ADMET prediction were further discussed, such as application domain of models, models validation techniques, and global versus local models. At last, several new promising research directions were provided, such as computational systems toxicology (toxicogenomics), data-integration and meta-decision making systems, which could be used for systemic in silico ADMET prediction in drug discovery and hazard risk assessment.

  3. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  4. Predicting responses to sunitinib using single nucleotide polymorphisms: Progress and recommendations for future trials.

    PubMed

    Ganapathi, Ram N; Bukowski, Ronald M

    2011-12-30

    Targeted therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors has led to a substantial improvement in the standard of care for patients with advanced or metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Because the mechanism of action, metabolism and transport of tyrosine kinase inhibitors can affect outcome and toxicity, several investigators have pursued the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with these actions. We discuss SNPs associated with outcome and toxicity following sunitinib therapy and provide recommendations for future trials to facilitate the use of SNPs in personalized therapy for this disease.

  5. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    PubMed

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  6. Productivity in Physical and Chemical Science Predicts the Future Economic Growth of Developing Countries Better than Other Popular Indices

    PubMed Central

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences. PMID:23776640

  7. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    PubMed

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

  8. Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence. PMID:22359670

  9. Coupled hydrodynamic and wastewater plume models of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland: a predictive tool for future ecological studies.

    PubMed

    Pritchard, Daniel; Savidge, Graham; Elsäßer, Björn

    2013-12-15

    Wastewater outfalls provide a natural laboratory for the study of nutrient dynamics in coastal seas, however if properly designed and operated their impact can be difficult to detect. A model was developed and applied to investigate the effect of variation in hydrodynamic conditions on the transport and dilution of a treated wastewater plume in Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland. To validate these predictions we measured the physiochemical properties of the waters surrounding the outfall with a specific focus on inherent plume tracers likely to be relevant to the study of macroalgae (salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). The model performed well and our data show high dilution of the plume, even under neap-tide conditions. This provides a spatially and temporally defined predictive framework for future studies investigating the compliance of Northern Ireland's coastal waters with European Water Framework Directive objectives and for feasibility studies investigating macroalgal aquaculture near wastewater outfalls.

  10. Current limitations and future opportunities for prediction of DILI from in vitro.

    PubMed

    Funk, Christoph; Roth, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major concern for drug developers, regulators and clinicians. It is triggered by drug and xenobiotic insults leading to liver impairment or damage, in the worst-case liver failure. In contrast to acute "intrinsic" hepatotoxicity, DILI typically manifests in a very small subset of the population under treatment with no clear dose relationship and inconsistent temporal patterns and is therefore termed an idiosyncratic event. Involved are multifactorial, compound-dependent mechanisms and host-specific factors, making the prediction in preclinical test systems very challenging. While preclinical safety studies in animals usually are able to capture direct, acute liver toxicities, they are less predictive for human DILI, where specific, human-derived in vitro models can potentially close the gap. On one hand, mechanistic approaches addressing key mechanisms involved in DILI in well-characterized and standardized in vitro test systems have been developed. On the other hand, co-cultures of different cell types, including patient- and/or stem cell-derived cells, in a three-dimensional setup allow for prolonged incubations and multiplexed readouts. Such complex setups might better reflect multifactorial human DILI. One major challenge is that for many compounds with human DILI the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood, complicating establishment and validation of predictive cellular tools. A tiered approach including rapid mechanism-based in vitro screens followed by confirmatory tests in more physiologically relevant models might allow minimizing DILI risk early on in vitro. Such complex, integrated approaches will gain from larger collaborations in multidisciplinary groups bringing existing knowledge and state-of-the-art technology together.

  11. Predicting Future Hourly Residential Electrical Consumption: A Machine Learning Case Study

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, Richard E; New, Joshua Ryan; Parker, Lynne Edwards

    2012-01-01

    Whole building input models for energy simulation programs are frequently created in order to evaluate specific energy savings potentials. They are also often utilized to maximize cost-effective retrofits for existing buildings as well as to estimate the impact of policy changes toward meeting energy savings goals. Traditional energy modeling suffers from several factors, including the large number of inputs required to characterize the building, the specificity required to accurately model building materials and components, simplifying assumptions made by underlying simulation algorithms, and the gap between the as-designed and as-built building. Prior works have attempted to mitigate these concerns by using sensor-based machine learning approaches to model energy consumption. However, a majority of these prior works focus only on commercial buildings. The works that focus on modeling residential buildings primarily predict monthly electrical consumption, while commercial models predict hourly consumption. This means there is not a clear indicator of which techniques best model residential consumption, since these methods are only evaluated using low-resolution data. We address this issue by testing seven different machine learning algorithms on a unique residential data set, which contains 140 different sensors measurements, collected every 15 minutes. In addition, we validate each learner's correctness on the ASHRAE Great Energy Prediction Shootout, using the original competition metrics. Our validation results confirm existing conclusions that Neural Network-based methods perform best on commercial buildings. However, the results from testing our residential data set show that Feed Forward Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Linear Regression methods perform poorly, and that Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) with Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) performs best - a technique not previously applied to this domain.

  12. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  13. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  14. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruun, Jesper; Brewe, Eric

    2013-12-01

    The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1) communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category), (2) communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category), and (3) social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category) in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI) scores. We find highly significant correlations (p<0.001) between network centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network), the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively) with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation (r=0.45) with

  15. Responses of future air quality to emission controls over North Carolina, Part II: Analyses of future-year predictions and their policy implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yang; Liu, Xiao-Huan; Olsen, Kristen M.; Wang, Wen-Xing; Do, Bebhinn A.; Bridgers, George M.

    2010-07-01

    The MM5/CMAQ system evaluated in Part I paper is applied to study the impact of emission control on future air quality over North Carolina (NC). Simulations are conducted at a 4-km horizontal grid resolution for four one-month periods, i.e., January, June, July, and August 2009 and 2018. Simulated PM 2.5 in 2009 and 2018 show distribution patterns similar to those in 2002. PM 2.5 concentrations over the whole domain in January and July reduced by 5.8% and 23.3% in 2009 and 12.0% and 35.6% in 2018, respectively, indicating that the planned emission control strategy has noticeable effects on PM 2.5 reduction in this region, particularly in summer. More than 10% and 20% of 1-h and 8-h O 3 mixing ratios are reduced in July 2009 and 2018, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of emission control for O 3 reduction in summer. However, O 3 mixing ratios in January 2009 and 2018 increase by more than 5% because O 3 chemistry is VOC-limited in winter and the effect of NO x reduction dominates over that of VOC reduction under such a condition. The projected emission control simulated at 4-km will reduce the number of sites in non-attainment for max 8-h O 3 from 49 to 23 in 2009 and to 1 in 2018 and for 24-h average PM 2.5 from 1 to 0 in 2009 and 2018 based on the latest 2008 O 3 and 2006 PM 2.5 standards. The variability in model predictions at different grid resolutions contributes to 1-3.8 ppb and 1-7.9 μg m -3 differences in the projected future-year design values for max 8-h O 3 and 24-h average PM 2.5, respectively.

  16. Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate.

    PubMed

    Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C

    2016-07-01

    Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

  17. Predicting global invasion risks: a management tool to prevent future introductions

    PubMed Central

    Fletcher, D. H.; Gillingham, P. K.; Britton, J. R.; Blanchet, S.; Gozlan, R. E.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting regions at risk from introductions of non-native species and the subsequent invasions is a fundamental aspect of horizon scanning activities that enable the development of more effective preventative actions and planning of management measures. The Asian cyprinid fish topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva has proved highly invasive across Europe since its introduction in the 1960s. In addition to direct negative impacts on native fish populations, P. parva has potential for further damage through transmission of an emergent infectious disease, known to cause mortality in other species. To quantify its invasion risk, in regions where it has yet to be introduced, we trained 900 ecological niche models and constructed an Ensemble Model predicting suitability, then integrated a proxy for introduction likelihood. This revealed high potential for P. parva to invade regions well beyond its current invasive range. These included areas in all modelled continents, with several hotspots of climatic suitability and risk of introduction. We believe that these methods are easily adapted for a variety of other invasive species and that such risk maps could be used by policy-makers and managers in hotspots to formulate increased surveillance and early-warning systems that aim to prevent introductions and subsequent invasions. PMID:27199300

  18. Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C.

    2016-07-01

    Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

  19. Nonlinear filtering techniques for noisy geophysical data: Using big data to predict the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. Within the Earth sciences it is readily evident in seismology, groundwater flows and drilling data. Models and workflows have been applied successfully to understand and even to predict chaotic systems in other scientific fields, including electrical engineering, neurology and oceanography. Unfortunately, the high levels of noise characteristic of our planet's chaotic processes often render these frameworks ineffective. This contribution presents techniques for the reduction of noise associated with measurements of nonlinear systems. Our ultimate aim is to develop data assimilation techniques for forward models that describe chaotic observations, such as episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events in fault zones. A series of nonlinear filters are presented and evaluated using classical chaotic systems. To investigate whether the filters can successfully mitigate the effect of noise typical of Earth science, they are applied to sunspot data. The filtered data can be used successfully to forecast sunspot evolution for up to eight years (see figure).

  20. Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

    PubMed

    Green, David M

    2017-02-01

    Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends.

  1. Prediction of Future Great Earthquake Locations from Cumulative Stresses Released by Prior Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Hong, T. K.

    2014-12-01

    There are 17 great earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 8.5 in the world since 1900. The great events cause significant damages to the humanity. The prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of earthquakes is important for seismic hazard mitigation. In this study, we calculate the Coulomb stress changes around the active plate margins for 507 events with magnitudes greater than 7.0 during 1976-2013 to estimate the cumulative stress releases. We investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ambient stress field from the cumulative Coulomb stress changes as a function of plate motion speed, plate age and dipping angle. It is observed that the largest stress drop occur in relatively high plate velocity in the convergent margins between Nazca and South American plates, between Pacific and North American plates, between Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates, and between Pacific and Australian plates. It is intriguing to note that the great earthquakes such as Tohoku-Oki earthquake and Maule earthquake occur in the highest plate velocity. On the other hand, the largest stress drop occur in the margins with relatively slow plate speeds such as the boundaries between Cocos and North American plates and between Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates. Earthquakes occur dominantly in the regions with positive Coulomb stress changes, suggesting that post-earthquakes are controlled by the stresses released from prior earthquakes. We find strong positive correlations between Coulomb stress changes and plate speeds. The observation suggests that large stress drop was controlled by high plate speed, suggesting possible prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of events.

  2. Macrophage density in early surveillance biopsies predicts future renal transplant function.

    PubMed

    Bräsen, Jan Hinrich; Khalifa, Abedalrazag; Schmitz, Jessica; Dai, Wei; Einecke, Gunilla; Schwarz, Anke; Hallensleben, Michael; Schmidt, Bernhard M W; Kreipe, Hans H; Haller, Hermann; von Vietinghoff, Sibylle

    2017-03-27

    Inflammation impairs renal allograft survival but is difficult to quantify by eye at low densities. Here we measured leukocyte abundance in early surveillance biopsies by digital image analysis to test for a role of chemokine receptor genotypes and analyze the predictive value of leukocyte subsets to allograft function. In six-week surveillance biopsies, T-cell (CD3), B-cell (CD20), macrophage (CD68), and dendritic cell (CD209) densities were assessed in whole slide scans. Renal cortical CD3, CD20, and CD68 were significantly higher in histologic rejection. The CCR2 V64I genotype was associated with lower CD3 and CD209 densities. Above-median CD68 density was significantly associated with lower combined patient and graft survival with a hazard ratio of 3.5 (95% confidence interval 1.1-11.0). Both CD20 and CD68 densities inversely correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) four years after transplantation. Additionally, CD68 correlated with eGFR loss. Among histological measurements including a complete Banff classification, only CD68 density was a significant predictor of an eGFR under 30ml/min after four years (odds ratio 7.4, 1.8-31.0) and part of the best eGFR prediction set in a multivariable linear regression analysis of multiple clinical and pathologic parameters. In a second independent cohort, the original CD68 median maintained its discriminative power for survival and eGFR. Thus, digital high-resolution assessment of CD68(+) leukocyte infiltration significantly improves prognostic value of early renal transplant biopsies.

  3. Using Sickness Absence Records to Predict Future Depression in a Working Population: Prospective Findings From the GAZEL Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Ferrie, Jane E.; Alexanderson, Kristina; Goldberg, Marcel; Kivimaki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerlund, Hugo; Zins, Marie; Head, Jenny

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We tested the hypothesis that sickness absence from work predicts workers' risk of later depression. Methods. Study participants (n = 7391) belonged to the French GAZEL cohort of employees of the national gas and electricity company. Sickness absence data (1996–1999) were obtained from company records. Participants' depression in 1996 and 1999 was assessed with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies–Depression (CES-D) scale. The analyses were controlled for baseline age, gender, marital status, occupational grade, tobacco smoking status, alcohol consumption, subthreshold depressive symptoms, and work stress. Results. Among workers who were free of depression in 1996, 13% had depression in 1999. Compared with workers with no sickness absence during the study period, those with sickness absence were more likely to be depressed at follow-up (for 1 period of sickness absence, fully adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.82; for 2 or more periods, fully adjusted OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.61, 2.36). Future depression was predicted both by psychiatric and nonpsychiatric sickness absence (fully adjusted OR = 3.79 [95% CI = 2.81, 5.10] and 1.41 [95% CI = 1.21, 1.65], respectively). Conclusions. Sickness absence records may help identify workers vulnerable to future depression. PMID:19542039

  4. The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2004-01-01

    The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

  5. Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

  6. The impact of the recent climatic change on grapevine phenophases and the prediction for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahradnicek, P.

    2009-09-01

    Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cultivation is influenced by the weather. The study try to explain connection between selected phenophases and meteorological characteristics with the focus on their temporal dynamics. Phenological observations in the Czech Lands have a long tradition, but choice of a suitable station is not simple. Finally were selected station Velké Pavlovice, this station have meteorological elements observation. The guideline for observers was set up in 1956 and has included the subsequent observed variables for the vine Vitis vinifera L.. This was replaced by the new CHMI methodology instruction number 3 in 1984. This case study researched available period 1984-2007. The quality control of meteorological characteristics were executed and then data were checked for relative homogenity by Standard Normal Homogeneity Test and then adjusted with respect to the inhomogeneity year. Grapevine phenophases best respond with high correlation coefficient with average and maximum temperature. In the last time the temperature significantly increase and it is hyphothesis this phenomen will be continued. Grapevine react on this climatic change yet in the present time. Beginning of the phenophases is earlier about 8 to 20 days before 20 years and in the future could be starting of the phenophases faster. The study work with time scale 2021-2050 and 2071-2100.

  7. For better and for worse: genes and parenting interact to predict future behavior in romantic relationships.

    PubMed

    Masarik, April S; Conger, Rand D; Donnellan, M Brent; Stallings, Michael C; Martin, Monica J; Schofield, Thomas J; Neppl, Tricia K; Scaramella, Laura V; Smolen, Andrew; Widaman, Keith F

    2014-06-01

    We tested the differential susceptibility hypothesis with respect to connections between interactions in the family of origin and subsequent behaviors with romantic partners. Focal or target participants (G2) in an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 352) were observed interacting with their parents (G1) during adolescence and again with their romantic partners in adulthood. Independent observers rated positive engagement and hostility by G1 and G2 during structured interaction tasks. We created an index for hypothesized genetic plasticity by summing G2's allelic variation for polymorphisms in 5 genes (serotonin transporter gene [linked polymorphism], 5-HTT; ankyrin repeat and kinase domain containing 1 gene/dopamine receptor D2 gene, ANKK1/DRD2; dopamine receptor D4 gene, DRD4; dopamine active transporter gene, DAT; and catechol-O-methyltransferase gene, COMT). Consistent with the differential susceptibility hypothesis, G2s exposed to more hostile and positively engaged parenting behaviors during adolescence were more hostile or positively engaged toward a romantic partner if they had higher scores on the genetic plasticity index. In short, genetic factors moderated the connection between earlier experiences in the family of origin and future romantic relationship behaviors, for better and for worse.

  8. The Importance of History for Predicting the Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bindschadler, R.

    2008-12-01

    The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) initiative began in 1990, following on earlier studies of the 'Siple Coast' ice streams and the Ross Ice Shelf. The past nearly two decades of field and satellite research of the West Antarctic ice sheet have produced an astounding number of discoveries, not the least of which is the variability of the West Antarctic ice sheet on time scales from seconds (yes, seconds!) to many millennia. The shorter-time-scale variations, such as the recent acceleration and thinning of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea, have illustrated serious weaknesses in what were once regarded as excellent models of ice sheet dynamics. Repairing this modeling capability requires understanding and incorporating external and internal processes previously regarded as less important. Ice-sheet history remains the best means to test, tune and validate numerical models of ice sheets. Cenozoic-age behavior may seem too ancient to matter to a centennial-time-scale focus on the future, but it is precisely through a long history, that the variety of more extreme ice sheet configurations can be extracted. Such upper or lower bound estimates have served the WAIS community well over the years to help justify research needed to assess the probability of dramatic behavior. Now, with the necessity of model revisions central to the WAIS effort, time histories of ice sheet behavior over both short and long time scales will return to a position of extreme importance.

  9. Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  10. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: introduction.

    PubMed

    Aumen, Nicholas G; Havens, Karl E; Best, G Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50% reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  11. Relevance of land surface processes for the prediction of future droughts in mid-latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Pal, J. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.; Schär, C.

    2003-04-01

    The enhanced occurrence of summer droughts in mid-latitudes is generally considered a likely consequence of climate change (e.g. IPCC 2001). However, some of the key studies investigating this issue employed the so-called bucket model for the representation of the land surface hydrology, which, due to its oversimplification, might not account for all processes relevant to this issue. In this study, regional climate simulations are conducted over North America for present and future climate conditions, using a land-surface scheme of intermediate complexity (the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme/BATS) and a simplified version of it mimicking the behaviour of the bucket model. With BATS, the warmer-climate simulations show little to no enhancement of soil drying in the considered region. With the bucket-type formulation, however, a positive feedback loop induces an extreme enhancement of soil drying when drought-like conditions are prevailing. The differing sensitivity of the two parameterizations is ascribed to the more realistic response of plants to drought stress in BATS, which limits evaporation to a minimum when soil moisture gets limited. These results suggest that studies using the bucket model might have overestimated the risk of enhanced drought in the mid latitudes. This calls for a more detailed investigation of the role of vegetation for climate change.

  12. Increased involvement of the parahippocampal gyri in a sad mood predicts future depressive symptoms

    PubMed Central

    Huffziger, Silke; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich; Kuehner, Christine; Kirsch, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral studies suggest a relationship between autobiographical memory, rumination and depression. The objective of this study was to determine whether remitted depressed patients show alterations in connectivity of the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC, a node in the default mode network) with the parahippocampal gyri (PHG, a region associated with autobiographical memory) while intensively recalling negative memories and whether this is related to daily life symptoms and to the further course of depression. Sad mood was induced with keywords of personal negative life events in participants with remitted depression (n = 29) and matched healthy controls (n = 29) during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Additionally, daily life assessments of mood and rumination and a 6-month follow-up were conducted. Remitted depressed participants showed greater connectivity than healthy controls of the PCC with the PHG, which was even stronger in patients with more previous episodes. Furthermore, patients with increased PCC–PHG connectivity showed a sadder mood and more rumination in daily life and a worsening of rumination and depression scores during follow-up. A relationship of negative autobiographical memory processing, rumination, sad mood and depression on a neural level seems likely. The identified increased connectivity probably indicates a ‘scar’ of recurrent depression and may represent a prognostic factor for future depression. PMID:24493842

  13. The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

    PubMed Central

    Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  14. Telomere Length Assessment for Prediction of Organ Transplantation Outcome. Future or Failure: A Review of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    Kłoda, Karolina; Domański, Leszek; Mierzecki, Artur

    2017-01-01

    Telomeres are located at each end of eukaryotic chromosomes. Their functional role is genomic stability maintenance. The protective role of telomeres depends on various factors, including number of nucleotides repeats, telomere-binding proteins, and telomerase activity. Organ transplantation is the preferred replacement therapy in the case of chronic kidney disease and the only possibility of sustaining recipients’ life in the case of advanced liver failure. While the prevalence of acute rejection is constantly decreasing, prevention of transplanted organ long-term function loss is still challenging. It has been demonstrated that post-transplant stressors accelerate aging of the allografts manifested through telomere shortening. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the importance of telomere length assessment for prediction of organ transplantation outcome. Literature review included the 10 most important studies regarding linkage between allograft function and telomere erosion, including 2 of our own reports. Telomere length assessment is useful to predict organ transplantation outcome. The importance of telomere length as a prediction marker depends on the analyzed material. To obtain reliable results, both graft cells (donor material) and lymphocytes (recipient material) should be examined. In the case of kidney transplantation, assessment of telomere length in the early post-transplant period allows prediction of the long-term function of the transplanted organ. To increase the accuracy of transplantation outcome prediction, telomere length assessment should be combined with evaluation of other aging biomarkers, like CDKN2A (p16). Large-scale clinical studies regarding telomere length measurement, including genome wide association analysis introducing relevant genetic factors, are needed for the future. PMID:28076340

  15. Can routine information from electronic patient records predict a future diagnosis of alcohol use disorder?

    PubMed Central

    Lid, Torgeir Gilje; Eide, Geir Egil; Dalen, Ingvild; Meland, Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore whether information regarding potentially alcohol-related health incidents recorded in electronic patient records might aid in earlier identification of alcohol use disorders. Design We extracted potentially alcohol-related information in electronic patient records and tested if alcohol-related diagnoses, prescriptions of codeine, tramadol, ethylmorphine, and benzodiazepines; elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), and mean cell volume (MCV); and new sick leave certificates predicted specific alcohol use disorder. Setting Nine general practitioner surgeries with varying size and stability. Subjects Totally 20,764 patients with active electronic patient record until data gathering and with a history of at least four years without a specific alcohol use disorder after turning 18 years of age. Methods The Cox proportional hazard analysis with time-dependent covariates of potential accumulated risks over the previous four years. Main outcome measures Time from inclusion until the first specific alcohol use disorder, defined by either an alcohol specific diagnostic code or a text fragment documenting an alcohol problem. Results In the unadjusted and adjusted Cox-regression with time-dependent covariates all variables were highly significant with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.25 to 3.50. Addictive drugs, sick leaves, GGT, MCV and International Classification for Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2), and International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) diagnoses were analyzed. Elevated GGT and MCV, ICD-10-diagnoses, and gender demonstrated the highest hazard ratios. Conclusions Many frequent health problems are potential predictors of an increased risk or vulnerability for alcohol use disorders. However, due to the modest hazard ratios, we were unable to establish a clinically useful tool. Key Points Alcohol is potentially relevant for many health problems, but current strategies for identification and intervention in

  16. An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

  17. Prediction of Future Epilepsy in Neonates With Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy Who Received Selective Head Cooling.

    PubMed

    McDonough, Tiffani L; Paolicchi, Juliann M; Heier, Linda A; Das, Nikkan; Engel, Murray; Perlman, Jeffrey M; Grinspan, Zachary M

    2017-01-01

    Epilepsy outcomes after therapeutic hypothermia for neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy are understudied. The authors used multivariable logistic regression to predict epilepsy in neonates after selective head cooling. Sensitivity analyses used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and electroencephalogram (EEG) interpretations by different clinicians. Fifty neonates had 2-year follow-up. Nine developed epilepsy. Predictors included pH ≤6.8 on day of birth (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 19 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1-371]), burst suppression on EEG on day 4 (8.2 [1.3-59]), and MRI deep gray matter injury (OR 33 [2.4-460]). These factors stratify neonates into low (0-1 factors; 3% [0%-14%] risk), medium (2 factors; 56% [21%-86%] risk), and high-risk groups (3 factors; 100% [29%-100%] risk) for epilepsy. The stratification was robust to varying clinical interpretations of the MRI and EEG. Neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy who undergo selective head cooling appear at risk of epilepsy if they have 2 to 3 identified factors. If validated, this rule may help counsel families and identify children for close clinical follow-up.

  18. Learning impairments identified early in life are predictive of future impairments associated with aging

    PubMed Central

    Hullinger, Rikki; Burger, Corinna

    2016-01-01

    The Morris water maze (MWM) behavioral paradigm is commonly used to measure spatial learning and memory in rodents. It is widely accepted that performance in the MWM declines with age. However, young rats ubiquitously perform very well on established versions of the water maze, suggesting that more challenging tasks may be required to reveal subtle differences in young animals. Therefore, we have used a one-day water maze and novel object recognition to test whether more sensitive paradigms of memory in young animals could identify subtle cognitive impairments early in life that might become accentuated later with senescence. We have found that these two tasks reliably separate young rats into inferior and superior learners, are highly correlated, and that performance on these tasks early in life is predictive of performance at 12 months of age. Furthermore, we have found that repeated training in this task selectively improves the performance of inferior learners, suggesting that behavioral training from an early age may provide a buffer against age-related cognitive decline. PMID:26283528

  19. Psychoticism and neuroticism predict cocaine dependence and future cocaine use via different mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Prisciandaro, James J.; McRae-Clark, Aimee L.; Moran-Santa Maria, Megan M.; Hartwell, Karen J.; Brady, Kathleen T.

    2011-01-01

    Background Personality characteristics have been associated with cocaine use. However, little is known about the mechanisms through which personality could impact drug use. The present study investigated the cross-sectional and prospective relationships between personality dimensions (i.e., impulsivity, neuroticism) and problematic cocaine use. Reactivity to a pharmacological stressor as a potential mediator of the relationship between neuroticism and future cocaine use was also examined. Methods Participants were 53 cocaine-dependent individuals and 47 non-dependent controls. Subjects completed the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) at baseline and were administered i.v. corticotrophin releasing hormone (CRH; 1 μg/kg). Cocaine use in the 30 days following CRH administration was measured. Results Cocaine-dependent individuals had higher scores on the psychoticism (i.e., impulsivity, aggression; p = 0.02) and neuroticism (p < 0.01) scales of the EPQ than non-dependent controls. Cocaine-dependent individuals also had a greater subjective stress response to CRH than controls (p < 0.01). Cocaine-dependent individuals with elevated psychoticism used significantly more cocaine over the follow-up period (p < 0.05), whereas individuals with elevated neuroticism trended towards using cocaine more frequently over the follow-up (p = 0.07). Finally, there was a trend for an indirect effect of neuroticism on frequency of cocaine use through subjective reactivity to CRH. Conclusions The findings extend past research on the association between personality and cocaine use, and suggest that motives for cocaine use may systematically vary across personality characteristics. Moreover, tailoring therapeutic interventions to individuals’ personalities may be an area that warrants further investigation. PMID:21306838

  20. A stochastic simulation model to predict future air quality in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavros, E.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.; Strand, T.; Lamb, B. K.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely accepted in both scientific and political communities such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that climate is changing. Previous studies have shown that expected changes in climate will increase the severity of wild fire. It is necessary to assess the impact of global climate change on wildfire and consequent effects on air quality in order to meet existing air quality regulations such as the Regional Haze Rule, which regulates visibility in Class 1 or “pristine areas”, and the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The challenge in such an assessment lies in not only integrating disciplines (climatology, fire ecology, air chemistry), but also in bridging knowledge across temporal (hourly to decadal) and spatial scales (local to global). In response to this challenge, we are integrating a stochastic model to simulate fire events, the Fire Scenario Builder (FSB), and the BlueSky Modeling Framework, which has a strong record of successfully linking wildfire emissions to air quality. FSB integrates fuel information and meteorological data to estimate regional fire season summary statistics such as total area burned and number of fire starts. The Blue Sky Modeling Framework then simulates total fuel consumption and smoke emissions both in local air sheds and downwind. Emissions are then fed into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model through Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). The goal of this research is threefold: 1) to compare emission results from the FSB-Blue Sky integration for current vs. future decades; 2) to assess model uncertainty, by comparing model output to observations, analyzing parameter sensitivity, and verifying the theoretical basis of FSB model structure; and, 3) prepare data files for analysis on air quality.

  1. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Bigler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  2. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  3. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then

  4. Resident Participation in International Surgical Missions is Predictive of Future Volunteerism in Practice

    PubMed Central

    Gampper, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Background Interest in global health and international mission trips among medical student and resident trainees is growing rapidly. How these electives and international mission experiences affect future practice is still being elucidated. No study has identified if participation in international surgical missions during residency is a predictor of participation in international surgical missions in practice after training completion. Methods All trainees of our plastic surgery residency program from 1990 to 2011, during the implementation of optional annual international surgical missions, were surveyed to determine if the graduate had gone on a mission as a resident and as a plastic surgeon. Data were compared between graduates who participated in missions as residents and graduates who did not, from 1990 to 2011 and 1990 to 2007. Results Of Plastic Surgery graduates from 1990 to 2011 who participated in international missions as residents, 60% participated in missions when in practice, versus 5.9% of graduates participating in missions in practice but not residency (P<0.0001). When excluding last 5 years, graduates participating in international missions in practice after doing so as residents increases to 85.7%, versus 7.41% who participate in practice but not residency P<0.002. Conclusions Results reveal plastic surgeons who participate in international surgical missions as residents participate in international surgical missions in practice at higher rates than graduates who did not participate in missions during residency. International missions have significant intrinsic value both to trainee and international communities served, and this opportunity should be readily and easily accessible to all plastic surgery residents nationwide. PMID:25798386

  5. Can Dermatoglyphics Be Used as a Marker for Predicting Future Malocclusions?

    PubMed Central

    Eslami, Neda; Jahanbin, Arezoo; Ezzati, Atefeh; Banihashemi, Elham; Kianifar, Hamidreza

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Dermal ridges and craniofacial structures form from the same embryonic tissues during the same embryonic period. Thus, this might indicate a possible association between dermatoglyphics and facial skeletal disorders, such as malocclusions. Early diagnosis of skeletal malocclusions sometimes can prevent future surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to compare the dermatoglyphic characteristics of different malocclusions. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 323 patients who were referred to Orthodontic Department of Mashhad Dental School were recruited. The participants were classified into three groups according to Angle’s classification, i.e., Skeletal Class 1 (n = 163), Skeletal Class 2 (n = 111), and Skeletal Class 3 (n = 49). For all participants, we recorded the total ridge counts of each finger (TRC), atd angles, a–b ridge counts, and types of fingerprint patterns. Right- and left-hand asymmetry scores were calculated. The chi-squared test was used to compare the dissimilarity of the types of patterns for each finger. Asymmetry of other parameters was analyzed statistically using the ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests. P-values greater than 0.05 were considered to be significant. Results A significant difference was determined between Class I and Class III patients in terms of left a–b ridge count (p=0.049). Loop was the most frequent pattern in the three groups, whereas the arch pattern occurred with the lowest frequency. No significant difference was found in the other parameters that were studied. Conclusion Although there were some slight differences in dermatoglyphic peculiarities of different skeletal malocclusions, most of the palm and fingerprint characteristics failed to indicate any significant differences. PMID:27054000

  6. Predicting future changes in climate and its impact on change in land use: a case study of Cauvery Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poyil, Rohith P.; Dhanalakshmi, S.; Goyal, Pramila

    2016-05-01

    The study involves the climate change prediction and its effects over a local sub grid scale of smaller area in Cauvery basin. The consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic activities are reflected in global as well as regional climate in terms of changes in key climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed. The key objectives of the study are to define statistical relationships between different climate parameters, to estimate the sensitivities of climate variables to future climate scenarios by integrating with GIS and to predict the land use/ land cover change under the climate change scenarios. The historical data set was analyzed to predict the climate change and its impact on land use/land cover (LULC) is observed by correlating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for two different times for the same area. It is so evident that due to the rise in temperature there is a considerable change in the land use affecting the vegetation index; increased temperature results in very low NDVI values or vegetation abundance.

  7. Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denkins, P.; Badhwar, G.; Obot, V.; Wilson, B.; Jejelewo, O.

    2001-01-01

    NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation

  8. Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights.

    PubMed

    Denkins, P; Badhwar, G; Obot, V; Wilson, B; Jejelewo, O

    2001-01-01

    NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation

  9. Uncertainties of predictions of future atmosphere CO/sub 2/ concentrations

    SciTech Connect

    Oeschger, H.; Heimann, M.

    1983-02-20

    Linear carbon cycle models, tuned to reproduce the CO/sub 2/ increase observed at Mauna Loa, independently of their individual assumptions, predict almost identical CO/sub 2/ concentration trends for fossil energy scenarios assuming a slightly increasing production in the next few decades. The basic information for such prognoses therefore is the airborne fraction observed over the last 20 years. Uncertainties in this quantity are due to possible errors in the estimate of fossil fuel consumption and the corresponding CO/sub 2/ emission, possible natural fluctuations in the baseline CO/sub 2/ level, and uncertainties regarding the biospheric CO/sub 2/ input and uptake as a result of deforestation and reforestation and land management. Depending on different assumptions the effective airborne fraction, defined as the ratio of CO/sub 2/ increase due to fossil fuel CO/sub 2/ alone to the integrated CO/sub 2/ production, might be as low as 0.38 or as high as 0.72, compared to the apparent airborne fraction of 0.55. The effective airborne fraction derived from carbon cycle models, considering only the CO/sub 2/ uptake by the ocean, lies in the range 0.60--0.70. A value as low as 0.40 seems therefore highly improbable. A high biospheric anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ input therefore must have been accompanied by a high CO/sub 2/ fertilization effect. Model considerations, however, are not in contradiction with a high biospheric input with the maximum production before 1958, which also would imply low preindustrial CO/sub 2/ concentrations in the range 270--280 ppm as reported recently.

  10. Using tuberculosis patient characteristics to predict future cases with matching genotype results.

    PubMed

    Oeltmann, J E; Click, E S; Moonan, P K

    2014-03-21

    Contexte : Etats-Unis.Cadre : On ne sait pas si les caractéristiques d'un cas de tuberculose (TB) ou du patient permettent de prévoir la probabilité de contamination dans l'avenir.Objectif : Estimer la probabilité de cas présentant un génotype similaire dans le même conté et dans une période de 2 ans suivant le cas index.Schéma : Nous avons étudié tous les cas de TB avec génotypage déclarés aux Etats-Unis entre 2004 et 2010. Les scores prédictifs ont été calculés en fonction des caractéristiques du patient en divisant le nombre de patients qui n'étaient pas le dernier cas d'un groupement de génotypes au niveau d'un conté par le nombre total de patients.Résultats : Le risque global de nouveau cas lié à un autre cas était de 30,8% pendant les 2 années suivant l'année de déclaration de tout nouveau cas. Ces contaminations ont été détectées dans 34,7% des circonstances après diagnostic d'un cas à frottis positif, 51,9%, après diagnostic d'un patient sans domicile fixe et 45,2%, après diagnostic d'un patient toxicomane. Les scores prédictifs variaient en fonction de l'ethnie (Blancs 13,9% ; Amérindiens/Hawaïens 43,8%), l'âge (>65 ans 13,1% ; 0–4 ans 43%) et étaient plus élevé chez les patients nés aux Etats-Unis.Conclusion: Les facteurs comportementaux et socio-démographiques peuvent contribuer à prévoir la probabilité d'infection de cas dans le futur et peuvent servir à prioriser les recherches de sujets contacts.

  11. Impacts of animal science research on United States sheep production and predictions for the future.

    PubMed

    Lupton, C J

    2008-11-01

    One hundred years ago, there were more than 48 million sheep in the United States. In 1910, they were valued at $4/head, with 43% of income coming from the sale of sheep, lambs, and meat and 57% coming from wool. Over the years, fluctuations in this ratio have challenged the breeder and researcher alike. By 2007, sheep numbers had declined to 6.2 million, with the average sheep shearing 3.4 kg of wool (representing <10% of income), 0.2 kg more than in 1909 but 0.5 kg less than fleeces in 1955. Sheep operations have declined by more than 170,000 in the past 40 yr. A cursory examination of this information might lead one to conclude that animal science research has made little impact on sheep production in the United States. On the contrary, lamb crops in the new millennium (range = 109 to 115%) are greater than those recorded in the 1920s (85 to 89%) and dressed lamb weights increased from 18 to 32 kg from 1940 to the present. In the past century, researchers conducted thousands of investigations, with progress reported in new, existing, and crossbreed evaluations, quantitative and molecular genetics, selection, nutrition, fiber, meat, hides, milk, growth, physiology, reproduction, endocrinology, management, behavior, the environment, disease, pharmacology, toxicology, and range, pasture, and forage utilization such that a vast amount of new information was accrued. Our understanding of sheep has benefited also from research conducted on other species, and vice versa. Many factors that have contributed to the decline in the sheep industry are not influenced easily by academic research (e.g., low per capita consumption of lamb meat, predation, reluctance to adopt new technologies, cost and availability of laborers with sheep-related skills, and fewer young people pursuing careers in agriculture). The size of the US sheep industry is expected to remain stable, with possible slow growth in the foreseeable future. To remain profitable, producers will take advantage of

  12. Short Sleep Duration is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events in Japanese Hypertensive Patients

    PubMed Central

    Eguchi, Kazuo; Pickering, Thomas G.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Hoshide, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

    2013-01-01

    Context It is not known whether short duration of sleep is a predictor of future cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients. Objective To test the hypothesis that short duration of sleep is independently associated with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Design, Setting, and Participants We performed ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) in 1255 subjects with hypertension (mean age: 70.4±9.9 years) and they were followed for an average of 50±23 months. Short sleep duration was defined as <7.5 hrs (20th percentile). Multivariable Cox hazard models predicting CVD events were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI for short sleep duration. A riser pattern was defined when average nighttime SBP exceeded daytime SBP. Main Outcome Measures The end point was cardiovascular events: stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and sudden cardiac death. Results In multivariable analyses, short duration of sleep (<7.5 hrs) was associated with incident CVD (HR=1.68; 1.06–2.66, P=.03). A synergistic interaction was observed between short sleep duration and the riser pattern (P=.089). When subjects were categorized on the basis of their sleep time and riser/non-riser patterns, the shorter sleep+riser group had a substantially and significantly higher incidence of CVD than the predominant normal sleep+non-riser group (HR=4.43;2.09–9.39, P<0.001), independent of covariates. Conclusions Short duration of sleep is associated with incident CVD risk, and the combination of riser pattern and short duration of sleep that is most strongly predictive of future CVD, independent of ambulatory BP levels. Physicians should inquire about sleep duration in the risk assessment of hypertensive patients. PMID:19001199

  13. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

    PubMed Central

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species. PMID:27293680

  14. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

    PubMed

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

  15. Cardio-Pulmonary Parasitic Nematodes Affecting Cats in Europe: Unraveling the Past, Depicting the Present, and Predicting the Future

    PubMed Central

    Traversa, Donato; Di Cesare, Angela

    2014-01-01

    Various cardio-pulmonary parasitic nematodes infecting cats have recently been fascinating and stimulating the attention of the Academia, pharmaceutical companies, and veterinary practitioners. This is the case of the metastrongyloids: Aelurostrongylus abstrusus and Troglostrongylus brevior, the trichuroid: Capillaria aerophila (syn. Eucoleus aerophilus), and the filarioid: Dirofilaria immitis. Apparently, these parasites have been emerging in several European countries, thus, gaining an important role in feline parasitology and clinical practice. Under a practical standpoint, a sound knowledge of the biological, epidemiological, and clinical impact of cardio-respiratory parasitoses affecting cats, in addition to a potential risk of introduction, establishment, and spreading of “new” parasites in Europe is mandatory in order to understand the present and future impact for feline medicine and to address new strategies of control and treatment. The purpose of the present article is to review the current knowledge of heartworm and lungworm infections in cats, discussing and comparing past and present issues, and predicting possible future scenarios. PMID:26664917

  16. Two decades of historical phenology observations of African tropical tree species: exploring the past to predict the futur

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hufkens, K.; Kosmala, M.; Ewango, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Beeckman, H.

    2015-12-01

    African tropical forests cover ~630 million ha, store up to 66 Pg of carbon and represent a significant carbon sink (0.34Pg C yr-1 ). As such African tropical forests provide an important negative feedback to the global carbon cycle. Unlike temperate forests, tropical forests lack sharp temperature and photoperiod cues to constrain phenology and growth. Therefore, events such as seasonal leaf abscission and reproductive life cycles are often driven by changes in water availability. With future climate predictions expecting a warmer, and especially drier tropical Africa, it is likely we will see concomitant changes in tree growth and phenology.As tropical trees show a high degree of phenological plasticity depending on the severity of the dry season, intermittent water stress or the location of an individual in the canopy structure. As such, frequent and long term observations are key to characterize tropical tree phenology. Here I use two long term historical phenology records of weekly observations, some digitized within the context of a citizen science project (http://junglerhythms.org/), to explore differences in tree phenology between two sites (Luki and Yangambi, DR Congo) with contrasting climate regimes within the Congo basin. I describe variation in leaf, flower and fruit phenology across similar species at both locations in relation to complementary historical climatological observations. I further discuss the potential implications of changing phenology under future climate conditions as phenological changes could alter both ecosystem demography and growing season length providing important feedbacks to the climate system.

  17. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    PubMed

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  18. Elevated fasting insulin predicts the future incidence of metabolic syndrome: a 5-year follow-up study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background There is controversy about the specific pathophysiology of metabolic syndrome (MS) but several authors have argued that hyperinsulinemia is a key feature of the cluster. We aimed to assess whether the baseline insulin levels could predict the development of MS in a well characterised cohort of otherwise healthy adults who were followed over a five year period. Methods We identified 2, 350 Koreans subjects who did not have MS in 2003 and who were followed up in 2008. The subjects were divided into 4 groups according to the baseline quartiles of fasting insulin, and the predictors of the incidence of MS were analyzed using multivariate regression analysis. Results Over the follow up period, 8.5% of the cohort developed MS. However, 16.4% of the subjects in the highest quartile of the insulin levels developed MS. In a model that included gender, age, the smoking status, the exercise level, alcohol consumption and the systolic blood pressure, the subjects in the highest quartile of the insulin levels had more than a 5 times greater risk of developing MS compared that of the subjects in the lowest quartile. This predictive importance remained significant even after correcting for all the individual features of MS. Conclusions These data suggest that high baseline fasting insulin levels are independent determinants for the future development of MS. PMID:22129309

  19. Mathematical approaches to estimating lag-phase duration and growth rate for predicting growth of Salmonella serovars, escherichia coli O157:H7, and Staphylococcus aureus in raw beef, bratwurst, and poultry.

    PubMed

    Borneman, Darand L; Ingham, Steven C; Ané, Cécile

    2009-06-01

    This study was done to optimize accuracy of predicting growth of Salmonella serovars, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Staphylococcus aureus in temperature-abused raw beef, poultry, and bratwurst (with salt but without added nitrite). Four mathematical approaches were used with experimentally determined lag-phase duration (LPD) and growth rate (GR) values to develop 12 versions of THERM (Temperature History Evaluation for Raw Meats; http://www.meathaccp.wisc.edu/ THERM/calc.aspx), a computer-based tool that calculates elapsing lag phase or growth that occurs in each entered time interval and sums the results of all intervals to predict growth. Each THERM version utilized LPD values calculated by linear interpolation, quadratic equation, piecewise linear regression, or exponential decay curve and GR values calculated by linear interpolation, quadratic equation, or piecewise linear regression. Each combination of mathematical approaches for LPD and GR calculations was defined as another THERM version. Time, temperature, and pathogen level (log CFU per gram) data were obtained from 26 inoculation experiments with ground beef, pork sausages, and poultry. Time and temperature data were entered into the 12 THERM versions to obtain pathogen growth. Predicted and experimental results were qualitatively described and compared (growth defined as > 0.3-log increase) or quantitatively compared. The 12 THERM versions had qualitative accuracies of 81.4 to 88.6% across 70 combinations of product, pathogen, and experiment. Quantitative accuracies within +/-0.3 log CFU were obtained for 51.4 to 67.2% of the experimental combinations; 82.9 to 88.6% of the quantitative predictions were accurate or fail-safe. Piecewise linear regression or linear interpolation for calculating LPD and GR yielded the most accurate THERM performance.

  20. Holistic health: predicting our data future (from inter-operability among systems to co-operability among people).

    PubMed

    Rossi Mori, Angelo; Mazzeo, Marta; Mercurio, Gregorio; Verbicaro, Rita

    2013-04-01

    Data depend on processes; processes depend on organizational models; organizational models depend on regulations and policies. This position paper envisages the future data scenarios and the related research needs by addressing this whole logical chain. A 'smarter health and wellness future' requires the proactive engagement of citizens and of their caregivers, and the cooperation of health professionals across care facilities, with intense usage of mobile communication and connected devices. This ecosystem of people and organizations is currently extremely fragmented. Technology offers the possibility to mediate among the different actors in order to build a functional care team around the specific needs of each individual, i.e. a 'virtual facility'. However, this requires policies and regulations in every jurisdiction that motivate providers and their organizations to collaborate among themselves and with citizens according to explicit individual plans of care provision, to share their goals and negotiate their respective roles with respect to each citizen. Once a collaborative organizational context is established within integrated care models, policy makers could identify a critical mass of relevant shared processes and isolate a set of 'Attention Points' with predictable actors, concerns, activities, and thus highly precise information needs. For each Attention Point, a template for a Context-Specific Profile of the patient could be produced, e.g. as an HL7-CDA schema that fully specifies the mandatory and optional (clinical) data useful to support the care processes and to manage governance indicators. In relation to these predictable Attention Points data sources can be aligned to achieve reasonable coherence and consistency. Attention to data quality can be improved in a context of systematic re-use of the same data by different actors in different contexts. From a collection of profiles it could be possible to set up the core of a multi-purpose "Policy

  1. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  2. Research on determinants of breastfeeding duration: suggestions for biocultural studies.

    PubMed

    Allen, L H; Pelto, G H

    1985-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to suggest directions for future intra-cultural research on the factors that affect breastfeeding duration, especially policy-oriented research. A 2nd purpose is to call for a reexamination of the theoretical construct, biocultural determinants, with respect to infant feeding. The study compares determinants in 4 multivariate studies. One was carried out in Connecticut, 1 in a working class community in Scotland, another in England and the 4th in Sweden. Almost no biological factors are strongly associated with breastfeeding duration in any of the population studied. Of the external factors, those relating to social support and advice were the most consistent predictors. Socioeconomic status, income, and work outside the home were not good predictors. Maternal attitudes and experience are of great importance in predicting feeding duration. The general picture that emerged from all the studies is that if a mother wants to breastfeed, she can. Mothers breastfeed longer if they desire to breastfeed; they intend to do it for a longer period of time; they feel comfortable feeding in public; they are informed about breastfeeding; and they are not anxious about the process. There is also fairly strong evidence linking a number of biocultural factors to feeding duration. Whether the linkage is biological or behavioral has significant policy implications: if it is biological, successful intervention would require a change in hospital practices to earlier 1st feeding; if the linkage is behavioral, the problem might be resolved through improved maternal education.

  3. Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

    PubMed

    Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

    2015-12-01

    The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

  4. Evaluation of geostationary satellite observations and the development of a 1-2 h prediction model for future storm intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mecikalski, John R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Manzato, Agostino

    2016-06-01

    A study was conducted to gain insights into the use of geostationary satellite-based indicators for characterizing and identifying growing cumulus clouds that evolve into severe weather producing convective storms. Eleven convective initiation (CI), 41 cloud top temperature-effective radius (T-re), and 9 additional fields were formed for 340 growing cumulus clouds that were manually tracked for 2 h and checked for association with severe weather to 2-3 h into the future. The geostationary satellite data were at 5 min resolution from Meteosat-8 on six convectively active days in 2010, 2012, and 2013. The study's goals were to determine which satellite fields are useful to forecasting severe storms and to form a simple model for predicting future storm intensity. The CI fields were applied on 3 × 3 pixel regions, and the T-re fields were analyzed on 9 × 9 and 51 × 51 pixel domains (needed when forming T-re vertical profiles). Of the 340 growing cumulus clouds examined, 34 were later associated with severe weather (using European Severe Weather Database reports), with the remaining being nonsevere storms. Using a multivariate analysis, transforming predictors into their empirical posterior probability, and maximizing the Peirce skill score, the best predictors were T1451 (51 × 51 pixel T, where re exceeds 14 µm), TG9 (9 × 9 pixel glaciation T surrounding a growing cloud), and ReBRTG51 (51 × 51 pixel re at the breakpoint T in the T-re profile). Rapid cloud growth prior to severe storm formation leads to delayed particle growth, colder temperatures of the first 14 µm particles, and lower TG values.

  5. Evidence that gestation duration and lactation duration are coupled traits in primates.

    PubMed

    Dubman, Evgenia; Collard, Mark; Mooers, Arne Ø

    2012-12-23

    Gestation duration and lactation duration are usually treated as independently evolving traits in primates, but the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) suggests both durations should be determined by metabolic rate. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares linear regression to test these different perspectives. We found that the allometries of the durations are divergent from each other and different from the scaling exponent predicted by the MTE (0.25). Gestation duration increases much more slowly (0.06 < m < 0.12), and lactation duration much more quickly (0.36 < m < 0.52) with body mass than the MTE predicts. By contrast, we found that the combined duration of gestation and lactation is consistent with the MTE's predictions (0.22 < m < 0.35). These results suggest that gestation duration and lactation duration might best be viewed as distinct but coupled adaptations. When transferring energy to their offspring, primate mothers must meet metabolically dictated physiological requirements while optimizing the timing of the switch from gestation to lactation in relation to some as-yet-unidentified body-size-related factor.

  6. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  7. The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.

    2007-01-01

    Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

  8. Estimating magnitude and duration of incident delays

    SciTech Connect

    Garib, A.; Radwan, A.E.; Al-Deek, H.

    1997-11-01

    Traffic congestion is a major operational problem on urban freeways. In the case of recurring congestion, travelers can plan their trips according to the expected occurrence and severity of recurring congestion. However, nonrecurring congestion cannot be managed without real-time prediction. Evaluating the efficiency of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies in reducing incident effects requires developing models that can accurately predict incident duration along with the magnitude of nonrecurring congestion. This paper provides two statistical models for estimating incident delay and a model for predicting incident duration. The incident delay models showed that up to 85% of variation in incident delay can be explained by incident duration, number of lanes affected, number of vehicles involved, and traffic demand before the incident. The incident duration prediction model showed that 81% of variation in incident duration can be predicted by number of lanes affected, number of vehicles involved, truck involvement, time of day, police response time, and weather condition. These findings have implications for on-line applications within the context of advanced traveler information systems (ATIS).

  9. Word Durations in Non-Native English

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Rachel E.; Baese-Berk, Melissa; Bonnasse-Gahot, Laurent; Kim, Midam; Van Engen, Kristin J.; Bradlow, Ann R.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compare the effects of English lexical features on word duration for native and non-native English speakers and for non-native speakers with different L1s and a range of L2 experience. We also examine whether non-native word durations lead to judgments of a stronger foreign accent. We measured word durations in English paragraphs read by 12 American English (AE), 20 Korean, and 20 Chinese speakers. We also had AE listeners rate the `accentedness' of these non-native speakers. AE speech had shorter durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, greater reduction of function words, and less between-speaker variance than non-native speech. However, both AE and non-native speakers showed sensitivity to lexical predictability by reducing second mentions and high frequency words. Non-native speakers with more native-like word durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, and greater function word reduction were perceived as less accented. Overall, these findings identify word duration as an important and complex feature of foreign-accented English. PMID:21516172

  10. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  11. Diabetes Risk Factors, Diabetes Risk Algorithms, and the Prediction of Future Frailty: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Bouillon, Kim; Kivimäki, Mika; Hamer, Mark; Shipley, Martin J.; Akbaraly, Tasnime N.; Tabak, Adam; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Batty, G. David

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine whether established diabetes risk factors and diabetes risk algorithms are associated with future frailty. Design Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997–1999) were the Framingham Offspring, Cambridge, and Finnish diabetes risk scores. Setting Civil service departments in London, United Kingdom. Participants There were 2707 participants (72% men) aged 45 to 69 years at baseline assessment and free of diabetes. Measurements Risk factors (age, sex, family history of diabetes, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive and corticosteroid treatments, history of high blood glucose, smoking status, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fasting glucose, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides) were used to construct the risk algorithms. Frailty, assessed during a resurvey in 2007–2009, was denoted by the presence of 3 or more of the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength, and weight loss; “prefrailty” was defined as having 2 or fewer of these indicators. Results After a mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 2.8% of the sample was classified as frail and 37.5% as prefrail. Increased age, being female, stopping smoking, low physical activity, and not having a daily consumption of fruits and vegetables were each associated with frailty or prefrailty. The Cambridge and Finnish diabetes risk scores were associated with frailty/prefrailty with odds ratios per 1 SD increase (disadvantage) in score of 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.27) and 1.27 (1.17–1.37), respectively. Conclusion Selected diabetes risk factors and risk scores are associated with subsequent frailty. Risk scores may have utility for frailty prediction in clinical practice. PMID:24103860

  12. Primary air pollutant emissions of coal-fired power plants in China: Current status and future prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Shuxiao; Duan, Lei; Lei, Yu; Cao, Pengfei; Hao, Jiming

    To explore the atmospheric emissions of coal-fired power sector in China, a unit-based method was developed based on detailed information of unit type, fuel quality, emission control technology, and geographical location. During 2000-2005, the period when power sector developed fastest in the past 20 years, SO 2, NO x and PM emissions of coal-fired power plants increased by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.2 times, respectively. The SO 2, emission of coal-fired power sector was estimated to be 16 097 kt in 2005, and would decrease to 11 801 kt in 2010, attributed mainly to the wide application of the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) technology. The NO x emission, however, would increase from 6965 kt in 2005 to 9680 kt in 2010, since few NO x control measures would be taken during the five years. The TSP, PM 10, and PM 2.5 emissions in 2005 were estimated to be 2774, 1842 and 994 kt, and the values would be 2540, 1824 and 1090 kt in 2010 respectively. The wet FGD would play an important role on dust emission removal. Through faithful implementation of closing small units and emission control policies in the acid rain and sulfur dioxide control zones, approximately 33%, 6% and 25% of SO 2, NO x, and TSP emissions respectively could be further reduced in 2010. Emissions in 2015 and 2020 of coal-fired power plants were predicted applying scenario analysis. For SO 2 and TSP, optimistic situation can be achieved through reasonable control policies; in contrast, NO x would probably be a more serious issue in future.

  13. ASAS Centennial Paper: Impact of animal science research on United States goat production and predictions for the future.

    PubMed

    Sahlu, T; Dawson, L J; Gipson, T A; Hart, S P; Merkel, R C; Puchala, R; Wang, Z; Zeng, S; Goetsch, A L

    2009-01-01

    Goat research in the United States has increased but at a rate less than that in production. Research on goat meat includes nutritional quality, packaging, color, sensory characteristics, and preslaughter management. Goat skins have value for leather, but quality of goat leather has not been extensively studied. Research in the production, quality, antibiotic residues, and sensory characteristics of goat milk and its products has aided development of the US dairy goat industry. Limited progress has been made in genetic improvement of milk or meat production. There is need to explore applications of genomics and proteomics and improve consistency in texture and functionality of goat cheeses. New goat meat and milk products are needed to increase demand and meet the diverse tastes of the American public. Despite research progress in control of mohair and cashmere growth, erratic prices and sale of raw materials have contributed to further declines in US production. Innovative and cooperative ventures are needed for profit sharing up to the consumer level. Internal parasites pose the greatest challenge to goat production in humid areas largely because of anthelmintic resistance. Study of alternative controls is required, including immunity enhancement via nutrition, vaccination, pasture management such as co-grazing with cattle, and genetic resistance. Similarly, the importance of health management is increasing related in part to a lack of effective vaccines for many diseases. Nutrition research should address requirements for vitamins and minerals, efficiencies of protein utilization, adjusting energy requirements for nutritional plane, acclimatization, and grazing conditions, feed intake prediction, and management practices for rapid-growth production systems. Moreover, efficient technology transfer methods are needed to disseminate current knowledge and that gained in future research.

  14. Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montoya, Isaac D.

    2008-01-01

    Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

  15. Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

    PubMed

    Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2017-02-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors.

  16. Predicting the current potential and future world wide distribution of the onion maggot, Delia antiqua using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling.

    PubMed

    Ning, Shuoying; Wei, Jiufeng; Feng, Jinian

    2017-01-01

    Climate change will markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial distribution patterns of insect pests because of the influence of future greenhouse effects on insect development and population dynamics. Onion maggot, Delia antiqua, larvae are subterranean pests with limited mobility, that directly feed on bulbs of Allium sp. and render them completely unmarketable. Modeling the spatial distribution of such a widespread and damaging pest is crucial not only to identify current potentially suitable climactic areas but also to predict where the pest is likely to spread in the future so that appropriate monitoring and management programs can be developed. In this study, Maximum Entropy Niche Modeling was used to estimate the current potential distribution of D. antiqua and to predict the future distribution of this species in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 by using emission scenario (A2) with 7 climate variables. The results of this study show that currently highly suitable habitats for D.antiqua occur throughout most of East Asia, some regions of North America, Western Europe, and Western Asian countries near the Caspian sea and Black Sea. In the future, we predict an even broader distribution of this pest spread more extensively throughout Asia, North America and Europe, particularly in most of European countries, Central regions of United States and much of East Asia. Our present day and future predictions can enhance strategic planning of agricultural organizations by identifying regions that will need to develop Integrated Pest Management programs to manage the onion maggot. The distribution forecasts will also help governments to optimize economic investments in management programs for this pest by identifying regions that are or will become less suitable for current and future infestations.

  17. Predicting the current potential and future world wide distribution of the onion maggot, Delia antiqua using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Jinian

    2017-01-01

    Climate change will markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial distribution patterns of insect pests because of the influence of future greenhouse effects on insect development and population dynamics. Onion maggot, Delia antiqua, larvae are subterranean pests with limited mobility, that directly feed on bulbs of Allium sp. and render them completely unmarketable. Modeling the spatial distribution of such a widespread and damaging pest is crucial not only to identify current potentially suitable climactic areas but also to predict where the pest is likely to spread in the future so that appropriate monitoring and management programs can be developed. In this study, Maximum Entropy Niche Modeling was used to estimate the current potential distribution of D. antiqua and to predict the future distribution of this species in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 by using emission scenario (A2) with 7 climate variables. The results of this study show that currently highly suitable habitats for D.antiqua occur throughout most of East Asia, some regions of North America, Western Europe, and Western Asian countries near the Caspian sea and Black Sea. In the future, we predict an even broader distribution of this pest spread more extensively throughout Asia, North America and Europe, particularly in most of European countries, Central regions of United States and much of East Asia. Our present day and future predictions can enhance strategic planning of agricultural organizations by identifying regions that will need to develop Integrated Pest Management programs to manage the onion maggot. The distribution forecasts will also help governments to optimize economic investments in management programs for this pest by identifying regions that are or will become less suitable for current and future infestations. PMID:28158259

  18. Synergistic Interaction of Child Manageability Problems and Parent-Discipline Tactics in Predicting Future Growth in Externalizing Behavior for Boys.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoolmiller, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Examined interaction of preschoolers' manageability problems and maternal discipline for predicting 10-year-old boys' antisocial behavior. Found that maternal retrospective perceptions of unmanageability predicted observed maternal discipline practices. Level of temper tantrums interacted with maternal discipline in predicting change in teacher…

  19. Ensemble Predictions of Future Snowfall Scenarios in the Karakorum and Hindu-Kush Mountains Using Downscaled GCM Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the seasonality and mass of snow, and impacting the water resources of hundreds of millions of people who depend on streamflow originating in High Asia. Global climate model (GCM) outputs are the primary forcing data used to investigate future projections of changes in snow and glacier processes; however, these processes occur at a much finer spatial scale than the resolution of current GCMs. To facilitate studying the cryosphere in High Asia, we developed a software package to downscale monthly GCM data to 30-arcseconds for any global land area. Using this downscaling package, we produce an ensemble of downscaled GCM data from 2020-2100, corresponding to representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We then use these data to model changes to snowfall in the Karakorum and Hindu Kush (KHK) region, which is located in High Asia. The ensemble mean of these data predict that total annual snowfall in 2095 will decrease by 22% under RCP 4.5 and 46% under RCP 8.5, relative to 1950-2000 climatological values. For both scenarios, the changes in snowfall are dependent on elevation, with the maximum decreases in snowfall occurring at approximately 2,300 m. While total snowfall decreases, an interesting feature of snowfall change for the RCP 8.5 scenario is that the ensemble mean projection shows an increase in snowfall for elevations between 3,000- 5,000 m relative to historic values. These fine-scale spatial, temporal, and elevation-dependent patterns of changes in projected snowfall significantly affect the energy balance of the snowpack, in turn affecting timing of melt and discharge. Therefore, our work can be coupled with a glacio-hydrological model to assess effects of these snowfall patterns on other processes or compared to existing model results to assess treatment of snow processes in the existing model. Our method is designed to downscale climate data for any global land area, allowing for the production of these fine

  20. Sustainable Futures

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  1. Validation and future predictions based on a new Non-Point Source Assessment Toolbox, applied to the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kourakos, G.; Harter, T.

    2011-12-01

    GIS platform and can be used for efficient scenario evaluations without the need to repeat groundwater model simulations. This method is applied to the southern third part of the Central Valley Aquifer, California, which is an intensively farmed semi-arid area, where the local communities rely heavily on groundwater. To obtain a detailed velocity field, the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) developed by the USGS was used as the coarse solution, split and refined into a large number of sub-domains. The CVHM resolution is 1 sq mi, with the stresses applied to the center of each cell. In our refined model the well stresses are spatially distributed to a large number of hypothetical wells, where the pumping rates, well depths and screen lengths are obtained from empirical probability distributions, derived from real data. The NPSAT generates a time-dependent water quality probability distribution, which express the time-dependent probability for a discharge surface (e.g., well) to exceed a threshold level of contamination across at a specific time. The model result is compared against real historic nitrate data, and used for future predictions with different scenario evaluations.

  2. Towards estimating the true duration of dendritic cell interactions with T cells✩

    PubMed Central

    Henrickson, Sarah E.; von Andrian, Ulrich H.; de Boer, Rob J.; Marée, Athanasius F.M.

    2014-01-01

    To initiate an adaptive immune response, T cells need to interact with dendritic cells (DCs), and the duration of these interactions plays an important role. In vitro and in vivo experiments have generally tried to estimate the required period of opportunity for T cell stimulation rather than the duration of individual T cell-DC interactions. Since the application of multi-photon microscopy (MPM) to living lymphoid tissues, the interactions between immune cells, as well as the duration thereof, can directly be observed in vivo. Indeed, long-lasting interactions between T cells and DCs were shown to be important for the onset of immune responses. However, because MPM imaging is typically restricted to experiments lasting one hour, and because T cell-DC conjugates frequently move into and out of the imaged volume, it is difficult to estimate the true duration of interactions from MPM contact data. Here, we present a method to properly make such an estimate of (the average of) the distribution of contact durations. We validate the method by applying it to spatially explicit computer simulations where the true distribution of contact duration is known. Finally, we apply our analysis to a large experimental data set of T-DC contacts. We identify a mismatch between these data and the model predictions, and investigate possible causes of the mismatch, including small tissue drift during imaging experiments. We discuss in detail how future experiments can be optimized such that MPM contact data will be minimally affected by these factors. PMID:19520083

  3. Meeting Report: FutureTox II: Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology “Pathways to Prediction: In Vitro and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology”

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Society of Toxicology (SOT) held avery successful FutureTox II Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology (CCT) Conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on January 16th and 17th, 2014. There were over 291 attendees representing industry, government and academia; the sessions were ...

  4. Slow Wave Sleep and Long Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Arias, D.; Leveton, L.

    2011-01-01

    To review the literature on slow wave sleep (SWS) in long duration space flight, and place this within the context of the broader literature on SWS particularly with respect to analogous environments such as the Antarctic. Explore how SWS could be measured within the International Space Station (ISS) context with the aim to utilize the ISS as an analog for future extra-orbital long duration missions. Discuss the potential use of emergent minimally intrusive wireless technologies like ZEO for integrated prelaunch, flight, and return to Earth analysis and optimization of SWS (and general quality of sleep).

  5. Future-oriented emotions in the prediction of binge-drinking intention and expectation: the role of anticipated and anticipatory emotions.

    PubMed

    Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

    2012-06-01

    The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) offers a parsimonious explanation of purposive behavior, but in the study of healthy and risk behaviors its sufficiency may be questioned. Working with binge-drinking, a very common risk behavior in Spanish undergraduate students, we used two strategies for improving predictions from TPB: using behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) as proximal antecedents of behaviors and adding as new predictors two future-oriented emotions (anticipated and anticipatory). Hierarchical regression analyses show that while anticipated emotions improved TPB explanations of BI, anticipatory emotions improved the explanations of BE. The present results show the influence of future emotions in the prediction of behavioral intention and behavioral expectation.

  6. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  7. Long duration flights management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sosa-Sesma, Sergio; Letrenne, Gérard; Spel, Martin; Charbonnier, Jean-Marc

    Long duration flights (LDF) require a special management to take the best decisions in terms of ballast consumption and instant of separation. As a contrast to short duration flights, where meteorological conditions are relatively well known, for LDF we need to include the meteorological model accuracy in trajectory simulations. Dispersions on the fields of model (wind, temperature and IR fluxes) could make the mission incompatible with safety rules, authorized zones and others flight requirements. Last CNES developments for LDF act on three main axes: 1. Although ECMWF-NCEP forecast allows generating simulations from a 4D point (altitude, latitude, longitude and UT time), result is not statistical, it is determinist. To take into account model dispersion a meteorological NCEP data base was analyzed. A comparison between Analysis (AN) and Forecast (FC) for the same time frame had been done. Result obtained from this work allows implementing wind and temperature dispersions on balloon flight simulator. 2. For IR fluxes, NCEP does not provide ascending IR fluxes in AN mode but only in FC mode. To obtain the IR fluxes for each time frame, satellite images are used. A comparison between FC and satellites measurements had been done. Results obtained from this work allow implementing flux dispersions on balloon flight simulator. 3. An improved cartography containing a vast data base had been included in balloon flight simulator. Mixing these three points with balloon flight dynamics we have obtained two new tools for observing balloon evolution and risk, one of them is called ASTERISK (Statistic Tool for Evaluation of Risk) for calculations and the other one is called OBERISK (Observing Balloon Evolution and Risk) for visualization. Depending on the balloon type (super pressure, zero pressure or MIR) relevant information for the flight manager is different. The goal is to take the best decision according to the global situation to obtain the largest flight duration with

  8. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  9. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  10. Can We Do Better than Using "Mean GCSE Grade" to Predict Future Outcomes? An Evaluation of Generalised Boosting Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benton, Tom

    2015-01-01

    A key predictor of young people's future outcomes is their level of academic achievement whilst at school. In England this is most commonly measured by achievement in GCSEs. However, not all pupils will have taken the same set of GCSE examinations as, for example, they may make different subject choices. For this reason, GCSE performance is often…

  11. Predicting short-term outcome in well-being following suicidal behaviour: the conjoint effects of social perfectionism and positive future thinking.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Rory C; Whyte, Marie-Claire; Fraser, Louisa; Masterton, George; Miles, Jeremy; MacHale, Siobhan

    2007-07-01

    This study investigated an integrative, psychological model of suicidality involving the relationship between perfectionism and future thinking to predict short-term outcome in well-being following a suicidal episode. Two hundred and sixty-seven adults hospitalized following a self-harm episode completed a range of clinical and psychological measures in hospital and were followed up approximately two months after discharge. Hierarchical regression analyses confirmed that, among the suicidal self-harmers who had a history of repetitive self-harm (n=65), outcome among low social perfectionists changed as a function of positive future thinking such that outcome was better for those high on positive thoughts compared with those low on positive future thoughts. There was no such positive change in outcome among the high social perfectionists. There were also no significant interactive effects evident among the non-repetitive self-harmers (n=61). These findings extend recent research to suggest that socially prescribed perfectionism and positive future thinking (but not negative future thinking) are implicated in outcome following repetitive suicidality. Implications for theory and clinical practice are discussed.

  12. Once is too much: Conditioned aversion develops immediately and predicts future cocaine self-administration behavior in rats

    PubMed Central

    Colechio, Elizabeth M.; Imperio, Caesar G.; Grigson, Patricia S.

    2014-01-01

    Rats emit aversive taste reactivity (TR) behavior (i.e., gapes) following intraoral delivery of a cocaine-paired taste cue and greater conditioned aversive TR at the end of training predicts greater drug-seeking and taking. Here, we examined the development of this conditioned aversive TR behavior on a trial by trial basis in an effort to determine when the change in behavior occurs and whether early changes in this behavior can be used to predict later drug-taking. The results show that conditioned aversive TR to a cocaine-paired cue occurs very early in training (i.e., following as few as 1 – 2 taste-drug pairings) and, importantly, that it can be used to predict later drug-seeking and drug-taking in rats. PMID:24773440

  13. Once is too much: conditioned aversion develops immediately and predicts future cocaine self-administration behavior in rats.

    PubMed

    Colechio, Elizabeth M; Imperio, Caesar G; Grigson, Patricia S

    2014-04-01

    Rats emit aversive taste reactivity (TR) behavior (i.e., gapes) following intraoral delivery of a cocaine-paired taste cue and greater conditioned aversive TR at the end of training predicts greater drug-seeking and taking. Here, we examined the development of this conditioned aversive TR behavior on a trial-by-trial basis in an effort to determine when the change in behavior occurs and whether early changes in this behavior can be used to predict later drug taking. The results show that conditioned aversive TR to a cocaine-paired cue occurs very early in training (i.e., following as few as 1-2 taste-drug pairings) and, importantly, that it can be used to predict later drug seeking and drug taking in rats.

  14. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  15. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    PubMed

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  16. Current and future perspectives on the development, evaluation and application of in silico approaches for predicting toxicity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Safety-related problems continue to be one of the major reasons of attrition in drug development. Non-testing approaches to predict toxicity could form part of the solution. This review provides a perspective of current status of non-testing approaches available for the predictio...

  17. Prediction of Future High Caries Increments for Children in a School Dental Service and in Private Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imfeld, Thomas N.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A method for predicting high dental caries increments for children, based on previous research, is presented. Three clinical findings were identified as predictors: number of sound primary molars, number of discolored pits/fissures on first permanent molars, and number of buccal and lingual smooth surfaces of first permanent molars with white…

  18. Long duration ash probe

    DOEpatents

    Hurley, J.P.; McCollor, D.P.; Selle, S.J.

    1994-07-26

    A long duration ash probe includes a pressure shell connected to a port in a combustor with a sample coupon mounted on a retractable carriage so as to retract the sample coupon within the pressure shell during soot blowing operation of the combustor. A valve mounted at the forward end of the pressure shell is selectively closeable to seal the sample coupon within the shell, and a heating element in the shell is operable to maintain the desired temperature of the sample coupon while retracted within the shell. The carriage is operably mounted on a pair of rails within the shell for longitudinal movement within the shell. A hollow carrier tube connects the hollow cylindrical sample coupon to the carriage, and extends through the carriage and out the rearward end thereof. Air lines are connected to the rearward end of the carrier tube and are operable to permit coolant to pass through the air lines and thence through the carrier tube to the sample coupon so as to cool the sample coupon. 8 figs.

  19. Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

    2014-03-01

    The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals.

  20. Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

  1. Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

    2009-04-01

    Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

  2. 119Sn Mössbauer parameters as predictive tool for future Sn-based negative electrode materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naille, S.; Jumas, J.-C.; Lippens, P.-E.; Olivier-Fourcade, J.

    Thanks to the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters, it is possible to analyze and predict Li reaction mechanisms with Sn-based negative electrodes for Li-ion batteries. The present approach is based on the interpretation of the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters: isomer shift (δ) and quadrupole splitting (Δ) by considering: (i) the analysis of the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters of the Li-Sn alloys used as model compounds, (ii) their interpretation from some physicochemical parameters (Li/Sn ratio, crystal structure, electronic density as defined by Hume-Rothery), and (iii) the proposition of an experimental based model to understand Li lithiation/delithiation mechanisms and predict electrochemical performances for Sn-based compounds including the effects of volume variations, particle coalescence or SEI formation.

  3. A new predictive indicator by arthrography for future acetabular growth following conservative treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip.

    PubMed

    Satsuma, Shinichi; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Kinugasa, Maki; Takeoka, Yoshiki; Kuroda, Ryosuke; Kurosaka, Masahiro

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to find a new predictive indicator for acetabular growth of developmental dysplasia of the hip. Seventy-three hips that were diagnosed with developmental dysplasia of the hip and treated by conservative reduction were included in our study. In 30 hips with center-edge angle ≤ 10° at age 4, the center-edge of the acetabular limbus angle (CEALA) in the arthrogram was measured. On the basis of the results, CEALA was significantly smaller in the secondary acetabular dysplasia group than in the normal group at maturity. In conclusion, CEALA is a more reliable and accurate predictive indicator for acetabular development than center-edge angle or acetabular index.

  4. Predicting future wind power generation and power demand in France using statistical downscaling methods developed for hydropower applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najac, Julien

    2014-05-01

    For many applications in the energy sector, it is crucial to dispose of downscaling methods that enable to conserve space-time dependences at very fine spatial and temporal scales between variables affecting electricity production and consumption. For climate change impact studies, this is an extremely difficult task, particularly as reliable climate information is usually found at regional and monthly scales at best, although many industry oriented applications need further refined information (hydropower production model, wind energy production model, power demand model, power balance model…). Here we thus propose to investigate the question of how to predict and quantify the influence of climate change on climate-related energies and the energy demand. To do so, statistical downscaling methods originally developed for studying climate change impacts on hydrological cycles in France (and which have been used to compute hydropower production in France), have been applied for predicting wind power generation in France and an air temperature indicator commonly used for predicting power demand in France. We show that those methods provide satisfactory results over the recent past and apply this methodology to several climate model runs from the ENSEMBLES project.

  5. Strategic aspects of higher education reform to cultivate specialists in diagnostic and biopharma industry as applicable to Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine as the Medicine of the Future.

    PubMed

    Studneva, М; Mandrik, M; Song, Sh; Tretyak, E; Krasnyuk, I; Yamada, Y; Tukavin, A; Ansari, A; Kozlov, I; Reading, C; Ma, Y; Krapfenbauer, K; Svistunov, A; Suchkov, S

    2015-01-01

    Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine as the Medicine of the Future represents an innovative model for advanced healthcare and robust platform for relevant industrial branches for diagnostics and pharmaceutics. However, rapid market penetration of new medicines and technologies demands the implementation of reforms not only in the spheres of biopharmaceutical industries and healthcare, but also in education. Therefore, the problem of the fundamental, modern preparation of specialists in bioengineering and affiliated fields is becoming particularly urgent, and it requires significant revision of training programs of higher education practice into current medical universities. Modernization and integration of widely accepted medical and teaching standards require consolidation of both the natural sciences and medical sciences that may become the conceptual basis for a university medical education. The main goal of this training is not simply to achieve advanced training and expansion of technological skills, but to provide development of novel multifaceted approaches to build academic schools for future generations.

  6. Efficiency, effectiveness, and duration of stroke rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Shah, S; Vanclay, F; Cooper, B

    1990-02-01

    This prospective multicenter study identifies the variables significant in the prediction of rehabilitation efficiency, achievement of rehabilitation potential and duration of rehabilitation stay in 258 persons with a first stroke admitted to comprehensive inpatient rehabilitation in Brisbane, Australia, during 1984. All three dependent variables were poorly predicted, with only 17% of the variance in rehabilitation efficiency, only 30% of the variance in achievement of rehabilitation potential, and only 22% of the variance in duration of rehabilitation stay explained. Unlike other reports, we considered most of the major medical (side of paralysis, stroke etiology, site of the lesion, arterial distribution affected, etc.), rehabilitative (initial Barthel Index score, interval from stroke onset to acute-care hospital admission, interval from hospital admission to rehabilitation commencement, neurologic measures, etc.), and demographic (age, years of education, occupation, ethnicity, etc.) variables. The high proportion of unexplained variance is likely to be due to nonmedical factors influencing the selection of patients for rehabilitation.

  7. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  8. The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

    PubMed Central

    Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

  9. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  10. Long Duration Sorbent Testbed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knox, James; Long, David; Miller, Lee; Thomas, John; Cmarik, Greg; Howard, David

    2016-01-01

    The LDST is a flight experiment demonstration designed to expose current and future candidate carbon dioxide removal system sorbents to an actual crewed space cabin environment to assess and compare sorption working capacity degradation resulting from long term operation. An analysis of sorbent materials returned to earth after approximately one year of operation in the International Space Station's (ISS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) indicated as much as a 70% loss of working capacity of the silica gel desiccant material at the extreme system inlet location, with a gradient of capacity loss down the bed. The primary science objective is to assess the degradation of potential sorbents for exploration class missions and ISS upgrades when operated in a true crewed space cabin environment. A secondary objective is to compare degradation of flight test to a ground test unit with contaminant dosing to determine applicability of ground testing.

  11. Towards estimating the true duration of dendritic cell interactions with T cells.

    PubMed

    Beltman, Joost B; Henrickson, Sarah E; von Andrian, Ulrich H; de Boer, Rob J; Marée, Athanasius F M

    2009-08-15

    To initiate an adaptive immune response, T cells need to interact with dendritic cells (DCs), and the duration of these interactions plays an important role. In vitro and in vivo experiments have generally tried to estimate the required period of opportunity for T cell stimulation rather than the duration of individual T cell-DC interactions. Since the application of multi-photon microscopy (MPM) to living lymphoid tissues, the interactions between immune cells, as well as the duration thereof, can directly be observed in vivo. Indeed, long-lasting interactions between T cells and DCs were shown to be important for the onset of immune responses. However, because MPM imaging is typically restricted to experiments lasting 1 h, and because T cell-DC conjugates frequently move into and out of the imaged volume, it is difficult to estimate the true duration of interactions from MPM contact data. Here, we present a method to properly make such an estimate of (the average of) the distribution of contact durations. We validate the method by applying it to spatially explicit computer simulations where the true distribution of contact duration is known. Finally, we apply our analysis to a large experimental data set of T-DC contacts, and predict an average contact time of about three hours. However, we identify a mismatch between the experimental data and the model predictions, and investigate possible causes of the mismatch, including minor tissue drift during imaging experiments. We discuss in detail how future experiments can be optimized such that MPM contact data will be minimally affected by these factors.

  12. Single-Event Effects Ground Testing and On-Orbit Rate Prediction Methods: The Past, Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reed, Robert A.; Kinnison, Jim; Pickel, Jim; Buchner, Stephen; Marshall, Paul W.; Kniffin, Scott; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past 27 years, or so, increased concern over single event effects in spacecraft systems has resulted in research, development and engineering activities centered around a better understanding of the space radiation environment, single event effects predictive methods, ground test protocols, and test facility developments. This research has led to fairly well developed methods for assessing the impact of the space radiation environment on systems that contain SEE sensitive devices and the development of mitigation strategies either at the system or device level.

  13. The Past is a Guide to the Future? Comparing Middle Pliocene Vegetation With Predicted Biome Distributions for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, U.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Middle Pliocene geological stage, ca. 3.6 to 2.6 million years ago, represents an interval of time in which Earth experienced greater global warmth. In order to evaluate the degree to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare a newly developed Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction with simulated global biome distributions for the mid and late 21st century. The Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is based on an internally consistent dataset of 202 palaeobotanical sites and predictions from a state-of-the-art coupled climate-vegetation model (HadAM3-TRIFFID-BIOME4), the output of which is used to provide biome estimates for data sparse regions. For the Middle Pliocene, both the vegetation reconstruction and model predictions indicate a generally warmer and moister climate than today. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grasslands shifted northward resulting in a significantly reduced area of tundra vegetation. Warm-temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in Middle and Eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Middle Pliocene biome distributions are compared (globally and on a regional scale) with two new predictions of equilibrium vegetation conditions for the early 21st Century (around 2020, ~ 400ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere) and end of the 21st Century (~ 560ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere), to examine similarities and discrepancies in biome distributions. Our comparison between reconstruction and prediction will contribute to a better understanding of the past and future impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and climate.

  14. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior predict dietary intention and future dieting in an ethnically diverse sample of overweight and obese veterans attending medical clinics?

    PubMed

    Lash, Denise N; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K

    2016-04-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans' numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one's weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior's (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB's ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans' facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular.

  15. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    PubMed Central

    Kukwa, Martin; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-01-01

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of its habitats using ecological niche modeling tools. The general glacial potential range of the studied species was wider than it is nowadays and its niches coverage decreased by almost 25% since last glacial maximum. The refugial areas were covered by cool and dry grasslands and scrubs and suitable niches in South America were located near the glacier limit. According to our analyses the further climate changes will not significantly influence the distribution of the suitable niches of O. austroamericana. PMID:27929090

  16. Predicting the Future: Opportunities and Challenges for the Chemical Industry to Apply 21st-Century Toxicity Testing

    PubMed Central

    Settivari, Raja S; Ball, Nicholas; Murphy, Lynea; Rasoulpour, Reza; Boverhof, Darrell R; Carney, Edward W

    2015-01-01

    Interest in applying 21st-century toxicity testing tools for safety assessment of industrial chemicals is growing. Whereas conventional toxicology uses mainly animal-based, descriptive methods, a paradigm shift is emerging in which computational approaches, systems biology, high-throughput in vitro toxicity assays, and high-throughput exposure assessments are beginning to be applied to mechanism-based risk assessments in a time- and resource-efficient fashion. Here we describe recent advances in predictive safety assessment, with a focus on their strategic application to meet the changing demands of the chemical industry and its stakeholders. The opportunities to apply these new approaches is extensive and include screening of new chemicals, informing the design of safer and more sustainable chemical alternatives, filling information gaps on data-poor chemicals already in commerce, strengthening read-across methodology for categories of chemicals sharing similar modes of action, and optimizing the design of reduced-risk product formulations. Finally, we discuss how these predictive approaches dovetail with in vivo integrated testing strategies within repeated-dose regulatory toxicity studies, which are in line with 3Rs principles to refine, reduce, and replace animal testing. Strategic application of these tools is the foundation for informed and efficient safety assessment testing strategies that can be applied at all stages of the product-development process. PMID:25836969

  17. Evaluation of an ARPS-based canopy flow modeling system for use in future operational smoke prediction efforts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiefer, M. T.; Zhong, S.; Heilman, W. E.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.

    2013-06-01

    Efforts to develop a canopy flow modeling system based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model are discussed. The standard version of ARPS is modified to account for the effect of drag forces on mean and turbulent flow through a vegetation canopy, via production and sink terms in the momentum and subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations. Additionally, a downward decaying net radiation profile inside the canopy is used to account for the attenuation of net radiation by vegetation elements. As a critical step in the model development process, simulations performed with the new canopy model, termed ARPS-CANOPY, are examined and compared to observations from the Canopy Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (CHATS) experiment. Comparisons of mean and turbulent flow properties in a statistically homogeneous atmosphere are presented for two cases, one when the trees are dormant without leaves and another when the trees are full of mature leaves. The model is shown to reproduce the shape of the vertical profiles of mean wind, temperature, and TKE observed during the CHATS experiment, with errors generally smaller in the afternoon and in the case with stronger mean flow. Sensitivity experiments with relatively coarse (90 m) horizontal grid spacing retain the overall mean profile shapes and diurnal trends seen in the finer-resolution simulations. The work described herein is part of a larger effort to develop predictive tools for close-range (on the order of 1 km from the source) smoke dispersion from low-intensity fires within forested areas.

  18. Predicting the future: opportunities and challenges for the chemical industry to apply 21st-century toxicity testing.

    PubMed

    Settivari, Raja S; Ball, Nicholas; Murphy, Lynea; Rasoulpour, Reza; Boverhof, Darrell R; Carney, Edward W

    2015-03-01

    Interest in applying 21st-century toxicity testing tools for safety assessment of industrial chemicals is growing. Whereas conventional toxicology uses mainly animal-based, descriptive methods, a paradigm shift is emerging in which computational approaches, systems biology, high-throughput in vitro toxicity assays, and high-throughput exposure assessments are beginning to be applied to mechanism-based risk assessments in a time- and resource-efficient fashion. Here we describe recent advances in predictive safety assessment, with a focus on their strategic application to meet the changing demands of the chemical industry and its stakeholders. The opportunities to apply these new approaches is extensive and include screening of new chemicals, informing the design of safer and more sustainable chemical alternatives, filling information gaps on data-poor chemicals already in commerce, strengthening read-across methodology for categories of chemicals sharing similar modes of action, and optimizing the design of reduced-risk product formulations. Finally, we discuss how these predictive approaches dovetail with in vivo integrated testing strategies within repeated-dose regulatory toxicity studies, which are in line with 3Rs principles to refine, reduce, and replace animal testing. Strategic application of these tools is the foundation for informed and efficient safety assessment testing strategies that can be applied at all stages of the product-development process.

  19. Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

    SciTech Connect

    Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.; Marsh, M.C. David; Rummel, Markus

    2015-04-09

    Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line in the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with z>20pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.

  20. Uncertainty of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves due to varied climate baseline periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2017-04-01

    Storm water management systems depend on Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves as a standard design tool. However, due to climate change, the extreme precipitation quantiles represented by IDF curves will be subject to alteration over time. Currently, a common approach is to adopt a single benchmark period for bias correction, which is inadequate in deriving reliable future IDF curves. This study assesses the expected changes between the IDF curves of the current climate and those of a projected future climate and the uncertainties associated with such curves. To provide future IDF curves, daily precipitation data simulated by a 1-km regional climate model were temporally bias corrected by using eight reference periods with a fixed length of 30 years and a moving window of 5 years between the cases for the period 1950-2014. Then the bias-corrected data were further disaggregated into ensemble of 5-min series by using an algorithm which combines the Nonparametric Prediction (NPRED) model and the method of fragments (MoF) framework. The algorithm uses the radar data to resample the disaggregated future rainfall fragments conditioned to the daily rainfall and temperature data. The disaggregated data were then aggregated into different durations based on concentration time. The results suggest that uncertainty in the percentage of change in the projected rainfall compared to the rainfall in the current climate varies significantly depending on which of the eight reference periods are used for the bias correction. Both the maximum projection of rainfall intensity and the maximum change in future projections are affected by using different reference periods for different frequencies and durations. Such an important issue has been largely ignored by the engineering community and this study has shown the importance of including the uncertainty of benchmarking periods in bias-correcting future climate projections.

  1. Relating spatial perspective taking to the perception of other's affordances: providing a foundation for predicting the future behavior of others

    PubMed Central

    Creem-Regehr, Sarah H.; Gagnon, Kyle T.; Geuss, Michael N.; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding what another agent can see relates functionally to the understanding of what they can do. We propose that spatial perspective taking and perceiving other's affordances, while two separate spatial processes, together share the common social function of predicting the behavior of others. Perceiving the action capabilities of others allows for a common understanding of how agents may act together. The ability to take another's perspective focuses an understanding of action goals so that more precise understanding of intentions may result. This review presents an analysis of these complementary abilities, both in terms of the frames of reference and the proposed sensorimotor mechanisms involved. Together, we argue for the importance of reconsidering the role of basic spatial processes to explain more complex behaviors. PMID:24068992

  2. Current and Future Perspectives on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of in Silico Approaches for Predicting Toxicity.

    PubMed

    Patlewicz, Grace; Fitzpatrick, Jeremy M

    2016-04-18

    Exploiting non-testing approaches to predict toxicity early in the drug discovery development cycle is a helpful component in minimizing expensive drug failures due to toxicity being identified in late development or even during clinical trials. Changes in regulations in the industrial chemicals and cosmetics sectors in recent years have prompted a significant number of advances in the development, application, and assessment of non-testing approaches, such as (Q)SARs. Many efforts have also been undertaken to establish guiding principles for performing read-across within category and analogue approaches. This review offers a perspective, as taken from these sectors, of the current status of non-testing approaches, their evolution in light of the advances in high-throughput approaches and constructs such as adverse outcome pathways, and their potential relevance for drug discovery. It also proposes a workflow for how non-testing approaches could be practically integrated within testing and assessment strategies.

  3. Proposal for future diagnosis and management of vascular tumors by using automatic software for image processing and statistic prediction

    PubMed Central

    Popescu, MD; Draghici, L; Secheli, I; Secheli, M; Codrescu, M; Draghici, I

    2015-01-01

    Rationale. Infantile Hemangiomas (IH) are the most frequent tumors of vascular origin, and the differential diagnosis from vascular malformations is difficult to establish. Specific types of IH due to the location, dimensions and fast evolution, can determine important functional and esthetic sequels. To avoid these unfortunate consequences it is necessary to establish the exact appropriate moment to begin the treatment and decide which the most adequate therapeutic procedure is. Objective. Based on clinical data collected by a serial clinical observations correlated with imaging data, and processed by a computer-aided diagnosis system (CAD), the study intended to develop a treatment algorithm to accurately predict the best final results, from the esthetical and functional point of view, for a certain type of lesion. Methods and Results. The preliminary database was composed of 75 patients divided into 4 groups according to the treatment management they received: medical therapy, sclerotherapy, surgical excision and no treatment. The serial clinical observation was performed each month and all the data was processed by using CAD. Discussions. The project goal was to create a software that incorporated advanced methods to accurately measure the specific IH lesions, integrated medical information, statistical methods and computational methods to correlate this information with that obtained from the processing of images. Based on these correlations, a prediction mechanism of the evolution of hemangioma, which helped determine the best method of therapeutic intervention to minimize further complications, was established. Abbreviations: Infantile Hemangiomas = IH, Computer Aided Diagnosis = CAD, Society for the Study of Vascular Anomalies = ISSVA, Color-coded duplex sonography = CCDS PMID:25914738

  4. MODEL ATMOSPHERES FOR MASSIVE GAS GIANTS WITH THICK CLOUDS: APPLICATION TO THE HR 8799 PLANETS AND PREDICTIONS FOR FUTURE DETECTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Madhusudhan, Nikku; Burrows, Adam; Currie, Thayne E-mail: burrows@astro.princeton.edu

    2011-08-10

    We have generated an extensive new suite of massive giant planet atmosphere models and used it to obtain fits to photometric data for the planets HR 8799b, c, and d. We consider a wide range of cloudy and cloud-free models. The cloudy models incorporate different geometrical and optical thicknesses, modal particle sizes, and metallicities. For each planet and set of cloud parameters, we explore grids in gravity and effective temperature, with which we determine constraints on the planet's mass and age. Our new models yield statistically significant fits to the data, and conclusively confirm that the HR 8799 planets have much thicker clouds than those required to explain data for typical L and T dwarfs. Both models with (1) physically thick forsterite clouds and a 60 {mu}m modal particle size and (2) clouds made of 1 {mu}m sized pure iron droplets and 1% supersaturation fit the data. Current data are insufficient to accurately constrain the microscopic cloud properties, such as composition and particle size. The range of best-estimated masses for HR 8799b, HR 8799c, and HR 8799d conservatively span 2-12 M{sub J} , 6-13 M{sub J} , and 3-11 M{sub J} , respectively, and imply coeval ages between {approx}10 and {approx}150 Myr, consistent with previously reported stellar ages. The best-fit temperatures and gravities are slightly lower than values obtained by Currie et al. using even thicker cloud models. Finally, we use these models to predict the near-to-mid-IR colors of soon-to-be imaged planets. Our models predict that planet-mass objects follow a locus in some near-to-mid-IR color-magnitude diagrams that is clearly separable from the standard L/T dwarf locus for field brown dwarfs.

  5. Iterated rippled noise discrimination at long durations.

    PubMed

    Yost, William A

    2009-09-01

    Iterated rippled noise (IRN) was used to study discrimination of IRN stimuli with a lower number of iterations from IRN stimuli with a higher number of iterations as a function of stimulus duration (100-2000 ms). Such IRN stimuli differ in the strength of the repetition pitch. In some cases, the gain used to generate IRN stimuli was adjusted so that both IRN stimuli in the discrimination task had the same height of the first peak in the autocorrelation function or autocorrelogram. In previous work involving short-duration IRN stimuli (<500 ms), listeners were not able to discriminate between IRN stimuli that had different numbers of iterations but the same height of the first peak in the autocorrelation function. In the current study, IRN discrimination performance improved with increases in duration, even in cases when the height of the first peak in the autocorrelation was the same for the two IRN stimuli. Thus, future studies involving discrimination of IRN stimuli may need to use longer durations (1 s or greater) than those that have been used in the past.

  6. The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Salzmann, U; Haywood, A M; Lunt, D J

    2009-01-13

    During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560 ppmv atmospheric CO2. In accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, resulting in a northward shift of the taiga-tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannah and woodland in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data-model comparison reveals differences in the distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider multipliers associated with 'long-term' climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome distributions, at higher atmospheric CO2 levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century.

  7. Correlates of Long Sleep Duration

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Sanjay R.; Malhotra, Atul; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; White, David P.; Hu, Frank B.

    2012-01-01

    Study Objective Sleeping more than 7 to 8 hours per day has been consistently associated with increased mortality. Whether this association is causal and what pathways explain this association are unknown. We sought to identify factors that could potentially explain the association between long sleep and mortality. Design Cross-sectional epidemiologic survey. Participants Middle-aged women (n = 60,028) participating in the Nurses Health Study II who reported a habitual sleep duration of 7 hours or more. Results Multiple sclerosis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7, 95% confidence interval [3.0–4.5]), antidepressant use (OR = 3.1, [2.9–3.3]), benzodiazepine use (OR = 3.0 [2.6–3.3]), and systemic lupus erythematosus (OR = 2.9, [2.3–3.6]) were the factors most strongly associated with prolonged sleep. Combining these data with prevalence information and a range of plausible associations with mortality, the confounding rate ratio was estimated. This parameter is the ratio of the unadjusted long sleep–mortality rate ratio to the rate ratio adjusted for the factor and measures the extent that the factor can alter the long sleep—mortality association, either through confounding or as a causal intermediate. Based on this parameter, psychiatric and socioeconomic factors have the greatest potential to influence the long sleep–mortality relationship. Assuming each factor doubles mortality risk, the confounding rate ratios for depression, antidepressant use, and unemployment were 1.10, 1.18, and 1.12. Lesser influential factors were benzodiazepine use, poverty, low societal status, sedentary lifestyle, and obesity. Conclusion Depression and low socioeconomic status are strong candidates for producing the statistical association between long sleep and mortality, either as confounders or as causal intermediates. Future causal research on the effects of long sleep should include a detailed assessment of psychiatric disease and socioeconomic status. PMID:16895254

  8. Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

    PubMed

    Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

    2009-05-01

    1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the

  9. Laboratory surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, 2003 predicting the future impact of the universal childhood conjugate vaccine program.

    PubMed

    Watson, Michael; Roche, Paul; Bayley, Kathy; Bell, Jan M; Collignon, Peter; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L; Hogg, Geoff; Keil, Anthony D; Krause, Vicki; Murphy, Denise; Smith, Helen V; Brown, Mitchell; Stylianopoulos, Joanne; Turnidge, John

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) laboratory surveillance program was carried out in Australia in 2003. This program provided data on the prevalence of pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance. There were 1,995 isolates tested with 34 per cent (683) from children aged less than five years and 27 per cent (535) from the elderly aged more than 65 years. One thousand eight hundred and sixty were isolates from blood, 79 from CSF and 56 from other sterile sites. In young children, 84 per cent of isolates were a serotype and 92 per cent a serogroup in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV). Of penicillin resistant isolates in children less than five years of age 85 per cent and 98 per cent were a serotype and serogroup in the 7vPCV respectively. When the universal 7vPCV vaccine program in young children is introduced in 2005, a proportion of cases of IPD should also be prevented in young adults (estimated reduction of 54 cases annually) and elderly Australians (an estimated reduction of 110 cases annually) as a result of improved herd immunity. Pneumococcal serotypes with higher rates of penicillin resistance (19F, 14 and 6B) were more prevalent in the elderly than in young children. In contrast, erythromycin resistance was more common in children less than five years of age (24%) compared to the elderly (15%). The predominant serotype with erythromycin resistance in Australia was serotype 14 and thus there is likely to be a major reduction in erythromycin resistance as a result of 7vPCV vaccination. Continued surveillance of pneumococcal serotype distribution and antibiotic susceptibility will be essential in order to identify serotype replacement by non-vaccine serotypes and to monitor the overall impact of current and future vaccine programs on invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, not only in young children but also in other age groups.

  10. Estimating the duration of speciation from phylogenies.

    PubMed

    Etienne, Rampal S; Morlon, Hélène; Lambert, Amaury

    2014-08-01

    Speciation is not instantaneous but takes time. The protracted birth-death diversification model incorporates this fact and predicts the often observed slowdown of lineage accumulation toward the present. The mathematical complexity of the protracted speciation model has barred estimation of its parameters until recently a method to compute the likelihood of phylogenetic branching times under this model was outlined (Lambert et al. ). Here, we implement this method and study using simulated phylogenies of extant species how well we can estimate the model parameters (rate of initiation of speciation, rate of extinction of incipient and good species, and rate of completion of speciation) as well as the duration of speciation, which is a combination of the aforementioned parameters. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a primate phylogeny. The simulations show that phylogenies often do not contain enough information to provide unbiased estimates of the speciation-initiation rate and the extinction rate, but the duration of speciation can be estimated without much bias. The estimate of the duration of speciation for the primate clade is consistent with literature estimates. We conclude that phylogenies combined with the protracted speciation model provide a promising way to estimate the duration of speciation.

  11. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    PubMed

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed.

  12. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  13. Electrocorticogram encoding of upper extremity movement duration.

    PubMed

    Wang, Po T; King, Christine E; McCrimmon, Colin M; Shaw, Susan J; Millett, David E; Liu, Charles Y; Chui, Luis A; Nenadic, Zoran; Do, An H

    2014-01-01

    Electrocorticogram (ECoG) is a promising long-term signal acquisition platform for brain-computer interface (BCI) systems such as upper extremity prostheses. Several studies have demonstrated decoding of arm and finger trajectories from ECoG high-gamma band (80-160 Hz) signals. In this study, we systematically vary the velocity of three elementary movement types (pincer grasp, elbow and shoulder flexion/extension) to test whether the high-gamma band encodes for the entirety of the movements, or merely the movement onset. To this end, linear regression models were created for the durations and amplitudes of high-gamma power bursts and velocity deflections. One subject with 8×8 high-density ECoG grid (4 mm center-to-center electrode spacing) participated in the experiment. The results of the regression models indicated that the power burst durations varied directly with the movement durations (e.g. R(2)=0.71 and slope=1.0 s/s for elbow). The persistence of power bursts for the duration of the movement suggests that the primary motor cortex (M1) is likely active for the entire duration of a movement, instead of providing a marker for the movement onset. On the other hand, the amplitudes were less co-varied. Furthermore, the electrodes of maximum R(2) conformed to somatotopic arrangement of the brain. Also, electrodes responsible for flexion and extension movements could be resolved on the high-density grid. In summary, these findings suggest that M1 may be directly responsible for activating the individual muscle motor units, and future BCI may be able to utilize them for better control of prostheses.

  14. Childhood Sleep Duration and Lifelong Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Duggan, Katherine A.; Reynolds, Chandra A.; Kern, Margaret L.; Friedman, Howard S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Sleep duration is known to significantly affect health in adults and children, but little is understood about long-term associations. This prospective cohort study is the first to examine whether childhood sleep duration is associated with lifelong mortality risk. Methods Data from childhood were refined and mortality data collected for 1,145 participants from the Terman Life Cycle Study. Participants were born between 1904 and 1915, lived to at least 1940, and had complete age, bedtime, and waketime data at initial data collection (1917–1926). Homogeneity of the cohort sample (intelligent, mostly white) limits generality but provides natural control of common confounds. Through 2009, 1,039 participants had confirmed deaths. Sleep duration was calculated as the difference between each child’s bed and wake times. Age-adjusted sleep (deviation from that predicted by age) was computed. Cox proportional hazards survival models evaluated childhood sleep duration as a predictor of mortality separately by sex, controlling for baseline age. Results For males, a quadratic relation emerged: male children who under-slept or over-slept compared to peers were at increased risk of lifelong all-cause mortality (HR = 1.15, CI = 1.05 – 1.27). Effect sizes were smaller and non-significant in females (HR = 1.02, CI = 0.91 – 1.14). Conclusions Male children with shorter or longer sleep durations than expected for their age were at increased risk of death at any given age in adulthood. The findings suggest that sleep may be a core biobehavioral trait, with implications for new models of sleep and health throughout the entire lifespan. PMID:24588628

  15. Model of medical supply and astronaut health for long-duration human space flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assad, Albert; de Weck, Olivier L.

    2015-01-01

    Planning a safe and productive human space exploration mission involves a dual approach addressing both the health of the vehicle and the crew. The goal of this study was to develop a quantitative model of astronaut health during long-duration space flight and a medical supply demand model in support of such missions. The model provides two outputs, Alphah and Mass of Medical Consumables (MMC), for each set of input parameters. Alphah is an estimate of total crew health and is displayed as a percentage. MMC is a measure of medical consumables expended during the mission and is displayed in units of kilograms. We have demonstrated that Alphah is a function of three scaling parameters, the type of mission, duration of mission, and gender mix of the crew. The type of mission and gender of crew are linked to radiation fatality data published by NASA. Mission duration is incorporated into the model with predicted incidence of illness and injury data published on US Navy submarine crews. MMC increases non-linearly with the number of crew, the duration of the mission and the distance of the mission away from Earth. This article describes the relationships between these parameters and discusses implications for future crewed space missions.

  16. Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies.

    PubMed

    Meo, Sultan Ayoub

    2016-06-01

    To highlight the prevalence and future projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The systematic analytic study was conducted in the Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Dec 2014 to April 2015. Systematic bibliographic search of scientific databases including ISI-web of science, PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted with key words of "diabetes mellitus" "prevalence", "incidence". Total 46 peer reviewed papers were selected and examined. All the experimental and epidemiologic studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia were included. There was no restriction on publication prestige and language of the publication. Finally, we included 21 publications and remaining 25 papers were excluded. The future predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was calculated on the results of the published studies by regressing the 33 years (1982-2015) of prevalence rate of diabetes against the time period. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is 32.8%. However, the predicted prevalence will be 35.37% in 2020; 40.37% in 2025 and 45.36% in the year 2030. The coefficient on time factor indicated that prevalence rate has increased during 1982-2015. Saudi Arabia has a highest prevalence (32.8%) of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We forecast that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 45.36% in 2030. Saudi Arabia should include diabetes preventive measures on a war footing basis in their national health policy to minimize the burden of the disease.

  17. Developing empirical monthly groundwater recharge equations based on modeling and remote sensing data - Modeling future groundwater recharge to predict potential climate change impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gemitzi, Alexandra; Ajami, Hoori; Richnow, Hans-Hermann

    2017-03-01

    Groundwater recharge is one of main components of the water budget that is difficult to quantify due to complexity of recharge processes and limited observations. In the present work a simple regression equation for monthly groundwater recharge estimation is developed by relating simulated recharge from a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) model to effective precipitation. Monthly groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration (AET) were computed by applying a calibrated (SWAT) model for a ten year period (2005-2015) in Vosvozis river basin in NE Greece. SWAT actual evapotranspiration (AET) results were compared to remotely sensed AET values from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), indicating the integrity of the modeling process. Water isotopes of 2H and 18O, originally presented herein, were used to infer recharge resources in the basin and provided additional evidence of the applicability of the developed formula. Results showed that the developed recharge estimation method can be effectively applied using MODIS evapotranspiration data, without having to adhere to numerical modeling which is many times constrained by the lack of available data especially in poorly gauged basins. Future trends of groundwater recharge up to 2100 using an ensemble of five downscaled climate change projections indicated that annual recharge will increase up to the middle of the present century and gradually decrease thereafter. However, the predicted magnitude is highly variable depending on the Global Climate Model (GCM) used. While winter recharge will likely increase in the future, summer recharge is expected to decrease as a result of temperature rise in the future.

  18. Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunn, L. S.; Blake, S.; Jones, M. C.; Rymer, H.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data have been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010. Data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption duration between the years 1600 and 1669 is found to be statistically different from that following it and the forecasting model is run on two datasets of Mt. Etna flank eruption durations: 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect on the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms `likely' and `unlikely' to probabilities of 66 % or more and 33 % or less, respectively, the forecasting model based on the 1600-2010 dataset indicates that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 86 days (± 29 days). This approach can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well

  19. Is the future blue-green? A review of the current model predictions of how climate change could affect pelagic freshwater cyanobacteria.

    PubMed

    Elliott, J Alex

    2012-04-01

    There is increasing evidence that recent changes in climate have had an effect on lake phytoplankton communities and it has been suggested that it is likely that Cyanobacteria will increase in relative abundance under the predicted future climate. However, testing such a qualitative prediction is challenging and usually requires some form of numerical computer model. Therefore, the lake modelling literature was reviewed for studies that examined the impact of climate change upon Cyanobacteria. These studies, taken collectively, generally show an increase in relative Cyanobacteria abundance with increasing water temperature, decreased flushing rate and increased nutrient loads. Furthermore, they suggest that whilst the direct effects of climate change on the lakes can change the timing of bloom events and Cyanobacteria abundance, the amount of phytoplankton biomass produced over a year is not enhanced directly by these changes. Also, warmer waters in the spring increased nutrient consumption by the phytoplankton community which in some lakes caused nitrogen limitation later in the year to the advantage of some nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria. Finally, it is also possible that an increase in Cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton biomass will lead to poorer energy flow to higher trophic levels due to their relatively poor edibility for zooplankton.

  20. Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

    2008-12-01

    Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying

  1. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

  2. Space immunology - Past, present and future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coulter, Gary R.; Taylor, Gerald R.; Sonnenfeld, Gerald

    1989-01-01

    Research results on the causes and mechanisms of change in immune systems during spaceflight are briefly reviewed. The most reliable conclusion from the sparse existing data is that postflight crew members exhibit a transient neutrophilia, eosinopenia, monocytopenia, reduced numbers of circulating T cells, and an often pronounced decrease in the ability of their T cells to respond to mitogen stimulation. Clinically, no direct predictive relationship between any of these measurements and increased health risk or disease has been established. Future areas of research are suggested in light of NASA's emerging requirements to support long-duration missions.

  3. Changes in apparent duration follow shifts in perceptual timing

    PubMed Central

    Bruno, Aurelio; Ayhan, Inci; Johnston, Alan

    2015-01-01

    It is well established that the apparent duration of moving visual objects is greater at higher as compared to slower speeds. Here we report the effects of acceleration and deceleration on the perceived duration of a drifting grating with average speed kept constant (10°/s).For acceleration, increasing the speed range progressively reduced perceived duration. The magnitude of apparent duration compression was determined by speed rather than temporal frequency and was proportional to speed range (independent of standard duration) rather than acceleration. The perceived duration reduction was also proportional to the standard length. The effects of increases and decreases in speed were highly asymmetric. Reducing speed through the interval induced a moderate increase in perceived duration. These results could not be explained by changes in apparent onset or offset or differences in perceived average speed between intervals containing increasing speed and intervals containing decreasing speed. Paradoxically, for intervals combining increasing speed and decreasing speed, compression only occurred when increasing speed occurred in the second half of the interval. We show that this pattern of results in the duration domain was concomitant with changes in the reported direction of apparent motion of Gaussian blobs, embedded in intervals of increasing or decreasing speed, that could be predicted from adaptive changes in the temporal impulse response function. We detected similar changes after flicker adaptation, suggesting that the two effects might be linked through changes in the temporal tuning of visual filters. PMID:26024450

  4. Sensitivity analyses of MAGIC modelled predictions of future impacts of whole-tree harvest on soil calcium supply and stream acid neutralizing capacity.

    PubMed

    Zetterberg, Therese; Köhler, Stephan J; Löfgren, Stefan

    2014-10-01

    Forest biofuel is a main provider of energy in Sweden and the market is expected to grow even further in the future. Removal of logging residues via harvest can lead to short-term acidification but the long-term effects are largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to 1) model the long-term effect of whole-tree harvest (WTH) on soil and stream water acidity and 2) perform sensitivity analyses by varying the amounts of logging residues, calcium (Ca(2+)) concentrations in tree biomass and site productivity in nine alternate scenarios. Data from three Swedish forested catchments and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) were used to simulate changes in forest soil exchangeable Ca(2+) pools and stream water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) at Gammtratten, Kindla and Aneboda. Large depletions in soil Ca(2+) supply and a reversal of the positive trend in stream ANC were predicted for all three sites after WTH. However, the magnitude of impact on stream ANC varied depending on site and the concentration of mobile strong acid anions. Contrary to common beliefs, the largest decrease in modelled ANC was observed at the well-buffered site Gammtratten. The effects at Kindla and Aneboda were much more limited and not large enough to offset the general recovery from acidification. Varying the tree biomass Ca(2+) concentrations exerted the largest impact on modelled outcome. Site productivity was the second most important variable whereas changing biomass amounts left on site only marginally affected the results. The outcome from the sensitivity analyses pointed in the same direction of change as in the base scenario, except for Kindla where soil Ca(2+) pools were predicted to be replenished under a given set of input data. The reliability of modelled outcome would increase by using site-specific Ca(2+) concentrations in tree biomass and field determined identification of site productivity.

  5. Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

  6. Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective.

    PubMed

    Baltensperger, A P; Huettmann, F

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future.

  7. Architectural considerations for lunar long duration habitat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahrami, Payam

    The future of space exploration science and technology is expected to move toward long duration missions. During this long duration missions the most important factor to success will be the habitation system, the place that crew will live and work. The broad range of future space exploration, new advances in technology and increasing demand for space travel and space tourism will create great opportunities for architects to use their special abilities and skills in the realm of space. The lunar habitat is defined as a multidisciplinary task and cannot be considered an independent project from the main module. Therefore, habitability will become the most important aspect of future human exploration. A successful design strategy should integrate architecture, structure and other disciplines and should bring in elements such as psychological and physiological factors, human interfaces, and privacy. The current research provides "Habitat Architectural Design System (HADS)" in order to evaluate lunar habitat concepts based on habitability, functional optimization, and human factors. HADS helps to promote parametric studied and evaluation of habitat concepts. It will provide a guideline dependent upon mission objectives to standardize architectural needs within the engineering applications and scientific demands. The significance of this research is the process of developing lunar habitat concepts using an architectural system to evaluate the quality of each concept via habitability aspects. This process can be employed during the early stage of design development and is flexible enough to be adjusted by different parameters according to the objectives of lunar mission, limitations, and cost. It also emphasizes the importance of architecture involvement in space projects, especially habitats.

  8. Duration of an Elastic Collision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Izarra, Charles

    2012-01-01

    With a pedagogical goal, this paper deals with a study of the duration of an elastic collision of an inflatable spherical ball on a planar surface suitable for undergraduate studies. First, the force generated by the deformed spherical ball is obtained under assumptions that are discussed. The study of the motion of the spherical ball colliding…

  9. Prediction equations for corrosion rates of a A-537 and A-516 steels in Double Shell Slurry, Future PUREX, and Hanford Facilities Wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Divine, J.R.; Bowen, W.M.; Mackey, D.B.; Bates, D.J.; Pool, K.H.

    1985-06-01

    Even though the interest in the corrosion of radwaste tanks goes back to the mid-1940's when waste storage was begun, and a fair amount of corrosion work has been done since then, the changes in processes and waste types have outpaced the development of new data pertinent to the new double shell tanks. As a consequence, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) began a development of corrosion data on a broad base of waste compositions in 1980. The objective of the program was to provide operations personnel with corrosion rate data as a function of waste temperature and composition. The work performed in this program examined A-537 tank steel in Double Shell Slurry and Future PUREX Wastes, at temperatures between 40 and 180/sup 0/C as well as in Hanford Facilities Waste at 25 and 50/sup 0/C. In general, the corrosion rates were less than 1 mpy (0.001 in./y) and usually less than 0.5 mpy. Excessive corrosion rates (>1 mpy) were only found in dilute waste compositions or in concentrated caustic compositions at temperatures above 140/sup 0/C. Stress corrosion cracking was only observed under similar conditions. The results are presented as polynomial prediction equations with examples of the output of existing computer codes. The codes are not provided in the text but are available from the authors. 12 refs., 5 figs., 19 tabs.

  10. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  11. Timing interventions in relation to temporomandibular joint closed lock duration: a systematic review of 'locking duration'.

    PubMed

    Al-Baghdadi, M; Durham, J; Steele, J

    2014-01-01

    Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) 'closed lock' (CL) is a clinical condition causing TMJ pain and limited mouth opening (painful locking) that is mostly attributed to disc displacement without reduction (DDwoR), or less commonly to anchored disc phenomenon (ADP). Both conditions are described clinically as CL that can be 'acute' or 'chronic' depending on the duration of locking. There is, however, no consensus about the duration of locking that defines the acute state and its effect on the success of interventions. This review paper, therefore, aims to provide: (i) a narrative review of the pathophysiological need for early intervention in DDwoR and the clinical implications of acute/chronic CL stages on the management pathway; (ii) a systematic review investigating the effects of locking duration on the success of interventions for CL management. Electronic and manual searches until mid-August 2013 were conducted for English-language studies of any design investigating the effects of non-surgical and surgical interventions for acute or chronic CL (DDwoR or ADP). A total of 626 records were identified, and 113 studies were included. Data extraction and quality assessment were completed for all included studies. Included studies were, however, heterogeneous and mostly of poor-quality leading to contradictory and inconsistent evidence on the effect of the duration of locking on treatment outcomes. Future high-quality trials investigating the effect of CL duration on treatment outcome are needed. At present, early intervention by 'unlock' mandibular manipulation seems to be the most practical and realistic approach that can be attempted first in every CL patient as an initial diagnostic/therapeutic approach.

  12. Updated postlicensure surveillance of the meningococcal C conjugate vaccine in England and Wales: effectiveness, validation of serological correlates of protection, and modeling predictions of the duration of herd immunity.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Helen; Andrews, Nick; Borrow, Ray; Trotter, Caroline; Miller, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were licensed in the United Kingdom more than 10 years ago based on correlates of protection that had previously been established for serogroup C-containing polysaccharide vaccines by using the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. These correlates of protection were subsequently validated against postlicensure estimates of observed vaccine effectiveness up to 7 to 9 months after the administration of the MCC vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was, however, shown to fall significantly more than 1 year after the administration of a 3-dose course in infancy. Despite this finding, the marked impact on serogroup C disease has been sustained, with the lowest recorded incidence (0.02 case per 100,000 population) in the 2008-2009 epidemiological year, mainly due to the indirect herd immunity effect of the vaccine in reducing carriage. Updated estimates of vaccine effectiveness through 30 June 2009 confirmed high short-term protection after vaccination in infancy, at 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91% to 99%), falling to 68% (95% CI, -63% to 90%) more than a year after vaccination. The observed vaccine effectiveness more than 12 months postvaccination was consistent with measured declining SBA levels, but confidence intervals were imprecise; vaccine effectiveness estimates were consistent with SBA titers of 1:4 or 1:8 as correlates of long-term protection after a primary course in infants. Modeling suggested that protection against carriage persists for at least 3 years and predicted the stabilization of serogroup C disease at low levels (fewer than 50 cases per year) up to 2015-2016.

  13. Updated Postlicensure Surveillance of the Meningococcal C Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales: Effectiveness, Validation of Serological Correlates of Protection, and Modeling Predictions of the Duration of Herd Immunity ▿

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Helen; Andrews, Nick; Borrow, Ray; Trotter, Caroline; Miller, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    Meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were licensed in the United Kingdom more than 10 years ago based on correlates of protection that had previously been established for serogroup C-containing polysaccharide vaccines by using the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. These correlates of protection were subsequently validated against postlicensure estimates of observed vaccine effectiveness up to 7 to 9 months after the administration of the MCC vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was, however, shown to fall significantly more than 1 year after the administration of a 3-dose course in infancy. Despite this finding, the marked impact on serogroup C disease has been sustained, with the lowest recorded incidence (0.02 case per 100,000 population) in the 2008-2009 epidemiological year, mainly due to the indirect herd immunity effect of the vaccine in reducing carriage. Updated estimates of vaccine effectiveness through 30 June 2009 confirmed high short-term protection after vaccination in infancy, at 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91% to 99%), falling to 68% (95% CI, −63% to 90%) more than a year after vaccination. The observed vaccine effectiveness more than 12 months postvaccination was consistent with measured declining SBA levels, but confidence intervals were imprecise; vaccine effectiveness estimates were consistent with SBA titers of 1:4 or 1:8 as correlates of long-term protection after a primary course in infants. Modeling suggested that protection against carriage persists for at least 3 years and predicted the stabilization of serogroup C disease at low levels (fewer than 50 cases per year) up to 2015-2016. PMID:20219881

  14. Development and application of generalized-least-squares regression models to estimate low-flow duration discharges in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.

    1994-01-01

    Physically based mathematical models were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression analyses to estimate long-term 95-, 98-, and 99-percent duration discharges for ungaged streams in Massachusetts. Duration discharges for 61 sites were used in the recession analyses; 37 sites were streamflow-gaging stations and 24 sites were low-flow partial-record stations. The duration discharges were related to basin chacteristics measured from digital data bases, by use of geographic information systems computer software. Significant chacterisfics used in the models were drainage area, area underlain by stratified-drift deposits per unit of stream length in the basin, and a surrogate for the effective head on the aquifer in the stratified-drift deposits, computed by subtracting the minimum basin elevation from the mean basin elevation. Standard errors of prediction were 57.5, 85.6, and 98.5 percent for models for the 95-, 98-, and 99-percent duration discharges, respectively. Model error variances were about 10 times the sampling error variances, indicating that the precision of future models are likely to be improved more by obtaining better measurements of basin characteristics or by adding new sites to the analyses than by collecting more streamflow data at the sites presently used in the analyses. The models were used to predict duration discharges for 35 selected sites in the Concord River, Noah Coastal, South Coastal, Narragansett and Tenmile River Basins. Ninety-perrcent prediction intervals were computed for the estimates at each of the sites, except at sites where values of the independent variables were outside the ranges of those for the sites used in the regression analyses.

  15. NEXT Long-Duration Test Neutralizer Performance and Erosion Characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced capabilities at a low total development cost. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster based on mission analyses. As of September 2, 2009, the thruster has accumulated 24,400 hr of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 434 kg of xenon, surpassing the NASA Solar Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program thruster propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal of 450 kg. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.1 10(exp 6zzz0 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. A reduction in neutralizer flow margin has been the only appreciable source of thruster performance degradation. The behavior of the neutralizer is not easily predicted due to both erosion and deposition observed in previous wear tests. Spot-to-plume mode transition flow data and in-situ erosion results for the LDT neutralizer are discussed. This loss of flow margin has been addressed through a combination of a design change in the prototype-model neutralizer to increase flow margin at low emission current and to update the NEXT throttle table to ensure adequate flow margin as a function of propellant throughput processed. The new throttle table will be used for future LDT operations. The performance of the NEXT LDT neutralizer is consistent with that observed for long-life hollow cathodes. The neutralizer life-limiting failure modes are progressing as expected

  16. Drug stability analyzer for long duration spaceflights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shende, Chetan; Smith, Wayne; Brouillette, Carl; Farquharson, Stuart

    2014-06-01

    Crewmembers of current and future long duration spaceflights require drugs to overcome the deleterious effects of weightlessness, sickness and injuries. Unfortunately, recent studies have shown that some of the drugs currently used may degrade more rapidly in space, losing their potency well before their expiration dates. To complicate matters, the degradation products of some drugs can be toxic. Consequently there is a need for an analyzer that can determine if a drug is safe at the time of use, as well as to monitor and understand space-induced degradation, so that drug types, formulations, and packaging can be improved. Towards this goal we have been investigating the ability of Raman spectroscopy to monitor and quantify drug degradation. Here we present preliminary data by measuring acetaminophen, and its degradation product, p-aminophenol, as pure samples, and during forced degradation reactions.

  17. Feeding the Astronauts During Long Duration Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perchonok, Michele

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the issues surrounding feeding astronauts during long duration missions. There is a brief history from the food and food packaging available during Project Mercury through the current food requirements. It shows the packaging and the requirements that have been used. The current food system includes thermostabilized and irradiated foods to reduce the potential of harmful microorganisms. There is an explanation of drinks available, rehydratable foods, and natural forms of food, (i.e., commercially available foods that are packaged in individual serving sizes). There is also discussion of the requirements for future missions, and the research gap for requirements for food that will last 5 years, with packaging and nutrients intact.

  18. Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

    2010-01-01

    Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

  19. Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.

    PubMed

    Mwalusepo, Sizah; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Massawe, Estomih S; Okuku, Gerphas O; Khadioli, Nancy; Johansson, Tino; Calatayud, Paul-André; Le Ru, Bruno Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity

  20. Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

    PubMed Central

    Mwalusepo, Sizah; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Massawe, Estomih S.; Okuku, Gerphas O.; Khadioli, Nancy; Johansson, Tino; Calatayud, Paul-André; Le Ru, Bruno Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity

  1. Estimating potential diapause duration in Calanus finmarchicus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saumweber, Whitley J.; Durbin, Edward G.

    2006-11-01

    Deep basins in the Gulf of Maine act as refuge for a large population of diapausing Calanus finmarchicus during the summer and fall. This population acts as the primary seed population for Georges Bank in the spring and is thought to be composed primarily of individuals that developed during the previous spring bloom. The factors affecting growth and mortality in the summer-fall population are not well understood, however, and loss terms from advection and starvation may be large. To assess the potential energetic limitation and loss of C. finmarchicus from the Gulf of Maine basins, a new nitrogen-specific respiration model has been developed for the resting stage of the species. Stage C5 C. finmarchicus were collected during July, September, and December 2003 from Wilkinson and Georges Basins. Animals were collected using both MOCNESS tows and zooplankton samplers on the Johnson Sea Link II submersible. Metabolic rates were measured using a Micro-Oxymax gas analyzer and Winkler incubation techniques both at sea and on animals kept in culture on shore. Respiration rates measured in the field were not significantly different from those measured on shore, with a mean of 130 μmol O 2 gN -1 h -1 (14.4 μmol O 2 gC -1 h -1) at 0 °C and a Q10 of 2.77 (2.58 for carbon-specific respiration). Using the nitrogen-specific rates in conjunction with visual estimates of nitrogen weight and lipid stores, we derived a discrete function for predicting potential diapause duration based on an animal's length, oil sac volume, and the in situ temperature. The maximum potential diapause duration for a C5 C. finmarchicus is predicted to range from 280 days at 0 °C to approximately 90 days at 11 °C. The maximum potential diapause duration in the Gulf of Maine is predicted to be between 3.5 and 5.5 months. These results suggest that energetic limitation may play a role in controlling the population dynamics of diapausing C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine. A reassessment of the

  2. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  3. Late appearance and exacerbation of primary Raynaud's phenomenon attacks can predict future development of connective tissue disease: a retrospective chart review of 3,035 patients.

    PubMed

    Pavlov-Dolijanovic, Slavica; Damjanov, Nemanja S; Vujasinovic Stupar, Nada Z; Radunovic, Goran L; Stojanovic, Roksanda M; Babic, Dragan

    2013-04-01

    To assess the prognostic value of the age at onset of Raynaud's (RP) and of a history of exacerbation of RP attacks for the development of connective tissue disease (CTD) in patients initially found to have primary Raynaud's. 3,035 patients with primary RP (2,702 women and 333 men) were followed for an average of 4.8 years (range from 1 to 10 years). At baseline and every 6 months, they were screened for signs and symptoms of CTD. At 4.8 years of follow-up, 54.7 % patients remained as primary RP, 8.1 % had developed suspected secondary RP, and 37.2 % had developed a definite CTD. Primary RP patients had an earlier onset of RP (mean age of 32.2 years) than those with suspected (mean age 36.5 years, P = .007) or definite secondary RP associated with CTD (mean age of 39.8 years, P = .004). RP beginning before the age of forty was not significantly associated with the development of CTD. Conversely, the appearance of RP after the age of 40 was significantly associated with the development of CTD (P = .00001). Worsening of RP attacks predicted the development of CTD, especially systemic sclerosis (relative risk [RR] of 1.42), scleroderma overlap syndrome (RR of 1.18), and mixed CTD (RR of 1.18). Patients whose onset of RP occurred past 40 years of age and those with worsening RP attacks were at risk for the future development of CTD.

  4. Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lyons, John D.; Stewart, Jana S.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

  5. Physical Strength and Performance of Moderate Duration Physical Tasks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    abilities from the predictive equation. Approach Structural equation modeling was applied to data from a study of steelworkers. Task... structural equation modeling to test explicit theoretical formulations. The analyses focused on two hypotheses. First, the association between static...Strength and Moderate Duration Tasks References -14- Anderson, J. C., & Gerbing, D. W. (1988). Structural equation modeling in practice: A review

  6. Sleep Duration and Area-Level Deprivation in Twins

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Nathaniel F.; Horn, Erin; Duncan, Glen E.; Buchwald, Dedra; Vitiello, Michael V.; Turkheimer, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: We used quantitative genetic models to assess whether area-level deprivation as indicated by the Singh Index predicts shorter sleep duration and modifies its underlying genetic and environmental contributions. Methods: Participants were 4,218 adult twin pairs (2,377 monozygotic and 1,841 dizygotic) from the University of Washington Twin Registry. Participants self-reported habitual sleep duration. The Singh Index was determined by linking geocoding addresses to 17 indicators at the census-tract level using data from Census of Washington State and Census Tract Cartographic Boundary Files from 2000 and 2010. Data were analyzed using univariate and bivariate genetic decomposition and quantitative genetic interaction models that assessed A (additive genetics), C (common environment), and E (unique environment) main effects of the Singh Index on sleep duration and allowed the magnitude of residual ACE variance components in sleep duration to vary with the Index. Results: The sample had a mean age of 38.2 y (standard deviation [SD] = 18), and was predominantly female (62%) and Caucasian (91%). Mean sleep duration was 7.38 h (SD = 1.20) and the mean Singh Index score was 0.00 (SD = 0.89). The heritability of sleep duration was 39% and the Singh Index was 12%. The uncontrolled phenotypic regression of sleep duration on the Singh Index showed a significant negative relationship between area-level deprivation and sleep length (b = −0.080, P < 0.001). Every 1 SD in Singh Index was associated with a ∼4.5 min change in sleep duration. For the quasi-causal bivariate model, there was a significant main effect of E (b0E = −0.063; standard error [SE] = 0.30; P < 0.05). Residual variance components unique to sleep duration were significant for both A (b0Au = 0.734; SE = 0.020; P < 0.001) and E (b0Eu = 0.934; SE = 0.013; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Area-level deprivation has a quasi-causal association with sleep duration, with greater deprivation being related to

  7. Stage-specific heat effects: timing and duration of heat waves alter demographic rates of a global insect pest.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Rudolf, Volker H W; Ma, Chun-Sen

    2015-12-01

    The frequency and duration of periods with high temperatures are expected to increase under global warming. Thus, even short-lived organisms are increasingly likely to experience periods of hot temperatures at some point of their life-cycle. Despite recent progress, it remains unclear how various temperature experiences during the life-cycle of organisms affect demographic traits. We simulated hot days (daily mean temperature of 30 °C) increasingly experienced under field conditions and investigated how the timing and duration of such hot days during the life cycle of Plutella xylostella affects adult traits. We show that hot days experienced during some life stages (but not all) altered adult lifespan, fecundity, and oviposition patterns. Importantly, the effects of hot days were contingent on which stage was affected, and these stage-specific effects were not always additive. Thus, adults that experience different temporal patterns of hot periods (i.e., changes in timing and duration) during their life-cycle often had different demographic rates and reproductive patterns. These results indicate that we cannot predict the effects of current and future climate on natural populations by simply focusing on changes in the mean temperature. Instead, we need to incorporate the temporal patterns of heat events relative to the life-cycle of organisms to describe population dynamics and how they will respond to future climate change.

  8. Sample size bias in retrospective estimates of average duration.

    PubMed

    Smith, Andrew R; Rule, Shanon; Price, Paul C

    2017-03-25

    People often estimate the average duration of several events (e.g., on average, how long does it take to drive from one's home to his or her office). While there is a great deal of research investigating estimates of duration for a single event, few studies have examined estimates when people must average across numerous stimuli or events. The current studies were designed to fill this gap by examining how people's estimates of average duration were influenced by the number of stimuli being averaged (i.e., the sample size). Based on research investigating the sample size bias, we predicted that participants' judgments of average duration would increase as the sample size increased. Across four studies, we demonstrated a sample size bias for estimates of average duration with different judgment types (numeric estimates and comparisons), study designs (between and within-subjects), and paradigms (observing images and performing tasks). The results are consistent with the more general notion that psychological representations of magnitudes in one dimension (e.g., quantity) can influence representations of magnitudes in another dimension (e.g., duration).

  9. Effects of predicted future and current atmospheric temperature and [CO2] and high and low soil moisture on gas exchange and growth of Pinus taeda seedlings at cool and warm sites in the species range.

    PubMed

    Wertin, Timothy M; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O

    2012-07-01

    Predicted future changes in air temperature and atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]), coupled with altered precipitation, are expected to substantially affect tree growth. Effects on growth may vary considerably across a species range, as temperatures vary from sub-optimal to supra-optimal for growth. We performed an experiment simultaneously at two locations in the current range of loblolly pine, a cool site and a warm site, to examine the effect of future climate conditions on growth of loblolly pine seedlings in contrasting regions of the species range. At both sites 1-year-old loblolly pine seedlings were grown in current (local ambient temperature and [CO(2)]) and predicted future atmospheric conditions (ambient +2 °C temperature and 700 μmol mol(-1) [CO(2)]). Additionally, high and low soil moisture treatments were applied within each atmospheric treatment at each site by altering the amount of water provided to the seedlings. Averaged across water treatments, photosynthesis (A(net)) was 31% greater at the cool site and 34% greater at the warm site in elevated temperature and [CO(2)] compared with ambient temperature. Biomass accumulation was also stimulated by 38% at the cool site and by 24% at the warm site in that treatment. These results suggest that a temperature increase of 2 °C coupled with an increase in [CO(2)] (predicted future climate) will create conditions favorable for growth of this species. Reduced soil moisture decreased growth in both current and predicted atmospheric conditions. Biomass accumulation and A(net) were reduced by ∼39 and 17%, respectively, in the low water treatment. These results suggest that any benefit of future atmospheric conditions may be negated if soil moisture is reduced by altered precipitation patterns.

  10. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-10-01

    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  11. Cohabitation Duration and Transient Domesticity.

    PubMed

    Golub, Andrew; Reid, Megan; Strickler, Jennifer; Dunlap, Eloise

    2013-01-01

    Research finds that many impoverished urban Black adults engage in a pattern of partnering and family formation involving a succession of short cohabitations yielding children, a paradigm referred to as transient domesticity. Researchers have identified socioeconomic status, cultural adaptations, and urbanicity as explanations for aspects of this pattern. We used longitudinal data from the 2001 Survey of Income and Program Participation to analyze variation in cohabitation and marriage duration by race/ethnicity, income, and urban residence. Proportional hazards regression indicated that separation risk is greater among couples that are cohabiting, below 200% of the federal poverty line, and Black but is not greater among urban dwellers. This provides empirical demographic evidence to support the emerging theory of transient domesticity and suggests that both socioeconomic status and race explain this pattern. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding transient domesticity and make recommendations for using the Survey of Income and Program Participation to further study this family formation paradigm.

  12. Diffusion from a steady source of short duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palazzi, E.; De Faveri, M.; Fumarola, G.; Ferraiolo, G.

    Releases of short duration can result from safety valves, rupture disks, sudden failures of storage tanks, reactors, lines, etc. Models for atmospheric dispersion of continuous, constant flow rate or instantaneous emissions lack reliability in those instances, because they do not take into account certain indispensable parameters, such as release duration, release starting time and exposure time. This paper offers a mathematical model which has been developed and validated with field experiments, with the intention of supplying reference material for design purposes (relief valves, plant design and layout) or for predicting potential consequences of a leakage, such as fires, explosions, contaminations.

  13. Defining Long-Duration Traverses of Lunar Volcanic Complexes with LROC NAC Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stopar, J. D.; Lawrence, S. J.; Joliff, B. L.; Speyerer, E. J.; Robinson, M. S.

    2016-01-01

    A long-duration lunar rover [e.g., 1] would be ideal for investigating large volcanic complexes like the Marius Hills (MH) (approximately 300 x 330 km), where widely spaced sampling points are needed to explore the full geologic and compositional variability of the region. Over these distances, a rover would encounter varied surface morphologies (ranging from impact craters to rugged lava shields), each of which need to be considered during the rover design phase. Previous rovers including Apollo, Lunokhod, and most recently Yutu, successfully employed pre-mission orbital data for planning (at scales significantly coarser than that of the surface assets). LROC was specifically designed to provide mission-planning observations at scales useful for accurate rover traverse planning (crewed and robotic) [2]. After-the-fact analyses of the planning data can help improve predictions of future rover performance [e.g., 3-5].

  14. "Computer as Data Gatherer" for a New Generation: Martorella's Predictions, the Past, the Present, and the Future of Technology in Social Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Adam

    2014-01-01

    In his 1997 article "Technology and the Social Studies--or: Which Way to the Sleeping Giant?" Peter Martorella made several predictions regarding technology resources in the social studies. Through a 2014 lens, Martorella's Internet seems archaic, yet two of his predictions were particularly poignant and have had a significant impact on…

  15. Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report III. Multivariate Predictions of Organizational Performance Across Time.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

    Multiple regression in a double cross-validated design was used to predict two performance measures (total variable expense and absence rate) by multi-month period in five industrial firms. The regressions do cross-validate, and produce multiple coefficients which display both concurrent and predictive effects, peaking 18 months to two years…

  16. The Duration of Motor Responses Evoked with Intracortical Microstimulation in Rats Is Primarily Modulated by Stimulus Amplitude and Train Duration

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Meghan; Sawan, Mohamad

    2016-01-01

    Microstimulation of brain tissue plays a key role in a variety of sensory prosthetics, clinical therapies and research applications, however the effects of stimulation parameters on the responses they evoke remain widely unknown. In particular, the effects of parameters when delivered in the form of a stimulus train as opposed to a single pulse are not well understood despite the prevalence of stimulus train use. We aimed to investigate the contribution of each parameter of a stimulus train to the duration of the motor responses they evoke in forelimb muscles. We used constant-current, biphasic, square wave pulse trains in acute terminal experiments under ketamine anaesthesia. Stimulation parameters were systematically tested in a pair-wise fashion in the caudal forelimb region of the motor cortex in 7 Sprague-Dawley rats while motor evoked potential (MEP) recordings from the forelimb were used to quantify the influence of each parameter in the train. Stimulus amplitude and train duration were shown to be the dominant parameters responsible for increasing the total duration of the MEP, while interphase interval had no effect. Increasing stimulus frequency from 100–200 Hz or pulse duration from 0.18–0.34 ms were also effective methods of extending response durations. Response duration was strongly correlated with peak time and amplitude. Our findings suggest that motor cortex intracortical microstimulations are often conducted at a higher frequency rate and longer train duration than necessary to evoke maximal response duration. We demonstrated that the temporal properties of the evoked response can be both predicted by certain response metrics and modulated via alterations to the stimulation signal parameters. PMID:27442588

  17. Repair of Electronics for Long Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pettegrew, Richard D.; Easton, John; Struk, Peter

    2007-01-01

    To reduce mission risk, long duration spaceflight and exploration activities will require greater degrees of self-sufficiency with regards to repair capability than have ever been employed before in space exploration. The current repair paradigm of replacing Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) of malfunctioning avionics and electronic hardware will be impractical, since carrying all of the spares that could possibly be needed for a long duration mission would require upmass and volume at unprecedented and unacceptable levels. A strategy of component-level repair for electronics, however, could significantly reduce the mass and volume necessary for spares and enhance mission safety via a generic contingency capability. This approach is already used to varying degrees by the U.S. Navy, where vessels at sea experience some similar constraints such as the need for self sufficiency for moderately long time periods, and restrictions on volume of repair spares and infrastructure. The concept of conducting component-level repairs of electronics in spacecraft requires the development of design guidelines for future avionics (to enable repair), development of diagnostic techniques to allow an astronaut to pinpoint the faulty component aboard a vastly complex vehicle, and development of tools and methodologies for dealing with the physical processes of replacing the component. This physical process includes tasks such as conformal coating removal and replacement, component removal, replacement, and alignment--all in the difficulty of a reduced gravity environment. Further, the gravitational effects on the soldering process must be characterized and accounted for to ensure reliability of the newly repaired components. The Component-Level Electronics-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) project under the NASA Supportability program was established to develop and demonstrate the practicality of this repair approach. CLEAR involves collaborative efforts between NASA s Glenn Research Center

  18. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  19. Arousal and exposure duration affect forward step initiation

    PubMed Central

    Bouman, Daniëlle; Stins, John F.; Beek, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Emotion influences parameters of goal-directed whole-body movements in several ways. For instance, previous research has shown that approaching (moving toward) pleasant stimuli is easier compared to approaching unpleasant stimuli. However, some studies found that when emotional pictures are viewed for a longer time, approaching unpleasant stimuli may in fact be facilitated. The effect of viewing duration may have modulated whole-body approach movement in previous research but this has not been investigated to date. In the current study, participants initiated a step forward after viewing neutral, high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. The viewing duration of the stimuli was set to seven different durations, varying from 100 to 4000 ms. Valence and arousal scores were collected for all stimuli. The results indicate that both viewing duration and the arousal of the stimuli influence kinematic parameters in forward gait initiation. Specifically, longer viewing duration, compared to shorter viewing duration, (a) diminished the step length and peak velocity in both neutral and emotional stimuli, (b) increased reaction time in neutral stimuli and, (c) decreased reaction time in pleasant and unpleasant stimuli. Strikingly, no differences were found between high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. In other words, the valence of the stimuli did not influence kinematic parameters of forward step initiation. Instead the arousal level (neutral: low; pleasant and unpleasant: high) explained the variance found in the results. The kinematics of forward gait initiation seemed to be reflected in the subjective arousal scores, but not the valence scores. So it seems arousal affects forward gait initiation parameters more strongly than valence. In addition, longer viewing duration seemed to cause diminished alertness, affecting GI parameters. These results shed new light on the prevailing theoretical interpretations regarding approach motivation

  20. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Sandoval, L.; Leveton, L.; Arias, D.

    2011-01-01

    In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

  1. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contrib