Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Predictors of mental health-related acute service utilisation and treatment costs in the 12 months following an acute psychiatric admission.

PubMed

Siskind, Dan; Harris, Meredith; Diminic, Sandra; Carstensen, Georgia; Robinson, Gail; Whiteford, Harvey

2014-11-01

A key step in informing mental health resource allocation is to identify the predictors of service utilisation and costs. This project aims to identify the predictors of mental health-related acute service utilisation and treatment costs in the year following an acute public psychiatric hospital admission. A dataset containing administrative and routinely measured outcome data for 1 year before and after an acute psychiatric admission for 1757 public mental health patients was analysed. Multivariate regression models were developed to identify patient- and treatment-related predictors of four measures of service utilisation or cost: (a) duration of index admission; and, in the year after discharge from the index admission (b) acute psychiatric inpatient bed-days; (c) emergency department (ED) presentations; and (d) total acute mental health service costs. Split-sample cross-validation was used. A diagnosis of psychosis, problems with living conditions and prior acute psychiatric inpatient bed-days predicted a longer duration of index admission, while prior ED presentations and self-harm predicted a shorter duration. A greater number of acute psychiatric inpatient bed-days in the year post-discharge were predicted by psychosis diagnosis, problems with living conditions and prior acute psychiatric inpatient admissions. The number of future ED presentations was predicted by past ED presentations. For total acute care costs, diagnosis of psychosis was the strongest predictor. Illness acuity and prior acute psychiatric inpatient admission also predicted higher costs, while self-harm predicted lower costs. The development of effective models for predicting acute mental health treatment costs using existing administrative data is an essential step towards a workable activity-based funding model for mental health. Future studies would benefit from the inclusion of a wider range of variables, including ethnicity, clinical complexity, cognition, mental health legal status, electroconvulsive therapy, problems with activities of daily living and community contacts. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2014.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

PubMed

Howard, Christine; Stephens, Philip A; Tobias, Joseph A; Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2018-02-28

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. © 2018 The Authors.

Energy-related influences on variation in breastfeeding duration among indigenous Maya women from Guatemala.

PubMed

McKerracher, Luseadra J; Collard, Mark; Altman, Rachel M; Sellen, Daniel; Nepomnaschy, Pablo A

2017-04-01

The causes of variation in breastfeeding duration in humans are poorly understood, but life history factors related to maternal energetics drive much of the variation in lactation duration in nonhuman animals. With this in mind, we investigated whether four energy-related factors influence variation in breastfeeding duration in a non-industrial human population: (1) mortality risk during mother's development (assessed via mother's adult height), (2) reliance on nutrient-dense weaning foods, (3) access to and need for help with infant feeding and care ("allomaternal care"), and (4) maternal tradeoffs between current and future reproduction (measured via child's birth order). The data pertain to 51 Kakchiquel-speaking Maya mothers and 283 children from a village in rural Guatemala. We developed a linear mixed model to evaluate the relationships between breastfeeding duration and the energy-related factors. Duration of breastfeeding was associated with two of the energy-related factors in the ways we predicted but not with the other two. Contrary to predictions, taller mothers breastfed for shorter periods and we found no evidence that weanling diet quality impacts breastfeeding duration. As predicted, women who had more help with infants breastfed for shorter periods, and later-born infants breastfed longer than earlier-born ones. The results regarding allomaternal care suggest that help reduces mothers' lactation demands. The energy saved may be redirected to increasing fecundity or investment in other children. The birth order result suggests that children born to mothers nearing reproductive senescence receive higher levels of investment, which likely impacts children's fitness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Further Investigation of Receding Horizion-Based Controllers and Neural Network-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelkar, Atul G.; Haley, Pamela J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This report provides a comprehensive summary of the research work performed over the entire duration of the co-operative research agreement between NASA Langley Research Center and Kansas State University. This summary briefly lists the findings and also suggests possible future directions for the continuation of the subject research in the area of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) and Network Based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC).

Intracranial pressure-induced optic nerve sheath response as a predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts.

PubMed

Wostyn, Peter; De Deyn, Peter Paul

2017-11-01

A significant proportion of the astronauts who spend extended periods in microgravity develop ophthalmic abnormalities. Understanding this syndrome, called visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP), has become a high priority for National Aeronautics and Space Administration, especially in view of future long-duration missions (e.g., Mars missions). Moreover, to ensure selection of astronaut candidates who will be able to complete long-duration missions with low risk of the VIIP syndrome, it is imperative to identify biomarkers for VIIP risk prediction. Here, we hypothesize that the optic nerve sheath response to alterations in intracranial pressure may be a potential predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts. If confirmed, this biomarker could be used for preflight identification of astronauts at risk for developing VIIP-associated optic disc edema.

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

2015-01-01

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

Systematic review of general thoracic surgery articles to identify predictors of operating room case durations.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Dexter, Elisabeth U; Masursky, Danielle; Nussmeier, Nancy A

2008-04-01

Previous studies of operating room (OR) information systems data over the past two decades have shown how to predict case durations using the combination of scheduled procedure(s), individual surgeon and assistant(s), and type of anesthetic(s). We hypothesized that the accuracy of case duration prediction could be improved by the use of other electronic medical record data (e.g., patient weight or surgeon notes using standardized vocabularies). General thoracic surgery was used as a model specialty because much of its workload is elective (scheduled) and many of its cases are long. PubMed was searched for thoracic surgery papers reporting operative time, surgical time, etc. The systematic literature review identified 48 papers reporting statistically significant differences in perioperative times. There were multiple reports of differences in OR times based on the procedure(s), perioperative team including primary surgeon, and type of anesthetic, in that sequence of importance. All such detail may not be known when the case is originally scheduled and thus may require an updated duration the day before surgery. Although the use of these categorical data from OR systems can result in few historical data for estimating each case's duration, bias and imprecision of case duration estimates are unlikely to be affected. There was a report of a difference in case duration based on additional information. However, the incidence of the procedure for the diagnosis was so uncommon as to be unlikely to affect OR management. Matching findings of prior studies using OR information system data, multiple case series show that it is important to rely on the precise procedure(s), surgical team, and type of anesthetic when estimating case durations. OR information systems need to incorporate the statistical methods designed for small numbers of prior surgical cases. Future research should focus on the most effective methods to update the prediction of each case's duration as these data become available. The case series did not reveal additional data which could be cost-effectively integrated with OR information systems data to improve the accuracy of predicted durations for general thoracic surgery cases.

The Association between Outpatient Buprenorphine Detoxification Duration and Clinical Treatment Outcomes: A Review

PubMed Central

Sigmon, Stacey C.; Strain, Eric C.; Heil, Sarah H.; Higgins, Stephen T.

2011-01-01

Background The association between buprenorphine taper duration and treatment outcomes is not well understood. This review evaluated whether duration of outpatient buprenorphine taper is significantly associated with treatment outcomes. Methods Studies that were published in peer-reviewed journals, administered buprenorphine as an outpatient taper to opioid-dependent participants, and provided data on at least one of three primary treatment outcome measures (opioid abstinence, retention, peak withdrawal severity) were reviewed. Primary treatment outcomes were evaluated as a function of taper duration using hierarchical linear regressions using pre-taper maintenance as a cofactor. Results Twenty-eight studies were reviewed. Taper duration significantly predicted percent of opioid-negative samples provided during treatment, however pre-taper maintenance period predicted percent participants abstinent on the final day of treatment. High rates of relapse were reported. No significant association between taper duration and retention in treatment or peak withdrawal severity was observed. Conclusion The data reviewed here suggest taper duration is associated with opioid abstinence achieved during detoxification but not with other markers of treatment outcome. The reviewed studies varied widely on several parameters (e.g., frequency of urinalysis testing, provision of ancillary medications) that may influence treatment outcome and thus could have interfered with the ability to identify relationships between taper duration and outcomes. Future studies evaluating opioid detoxification should utilize rigorous experimental methods and report a wider range of outcome measures in order to help advance our understanding of the association between taper duration and treatment outcomes. PMID:21741781

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

PubMed

Doré, Bruce P; Meksin, Robert; Mather, Mara; Hirst, William; Ochsner, Kevin N

2016-06-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting (a) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and (b) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals

PubMed Central

Doré, B.P.; Meksin, R.; Mather, M.; Hirst, W.; Ochsner, K.N

2016-01-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting 1) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and 2) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. PMID:27100309

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh; Lee, Bo-Ra

2015-07-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought Prediction till 2100 Under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, H. R.; Park, C. K.; Deo, R. C.

2014-12-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilizes the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

The Use of One-Sample Prediction Intervals for Estimating CO2 Scrubber Canister Durations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

Grade and 812 D-Grade Sofnolime.3 Definitions According to Devore,4 A CI (confidence interval) refers to a parameter, or population ... characteristic , whose value is fixed but unknown to us. In contrast, a future value of Y is not a parameter but instead a random variable; for this

A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

PubMed

Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

2015-01-01

The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cates, Grant R.

2014-01-01

The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

Precipitation and temperature regime over Cyprus as a result of global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K. V.; Zerefos, C.

2010-02-01

In this study, the impact of global climate change on the temperature and precipitation regime over the island of Cyprus has been investigated. The analysis is based on daily output from a regional climate model (RCM) at a high horizontal resolution (25 km) produced within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project. The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions. Two future periods are studied, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. For the study area and over the study period, an analysis of the changes associated with the temperature regime and the hydrological cycle, such as mean precipitation and drought duration, is presented. Variations in the mean annual and seasonal rainfall are presented. Changes in the number of hot days/warm nights as well as drought duration are also discussed. These changes should be very important to assess future possible water shortages over the island and to provide a basis for associated impacts on the agricultural sector.

An overview of the on-orbit contamination of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuckey, W. K.

1993-01-01

Contamination that leads to degradation of critical surfaces becomes a vital design issue for many spacecraft programs. One of the processes that must be considered is the on-orbit accumulation of contaminants. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has presented an opportunity to examine the deposits on surfaces returned from orbit in order to help in understanding the deposition processes and the current models used to predict spacecraft contamination levels. The results from various investigators on the contamination of LDEF have implications for material selection, contamination models, and contamination control plans for the design of future spacecraft.

Coping and sickness absence

PubMed Central

Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; van Dijk, Frank J. H.; Blonk, Roland W. B.

2007-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study is to examine the role of coping styles in sickness absence. In line with findings that contrast the reactive–passive focused strategies, problem-solving strategies are generally associated with positive results in terms of well-being and overall health outcomes; our hypothesis is that such strategies are positively related to a low frequency of sickness absence and with short lengths (total number of days absent) and durations (mean duration per spell). Methods Using a prospective design, employees’ (N = 3,628) responses on a self-report coping inventory are used to predict future registered sickness absence (i.e. frequency, length, duration, and median time before the onset of a new sick leave period). Results and conclusions In accordance with our hypothesis, and after adjustment for potential confounders, employees with an active problem-solving coping strategy are less likely to drop out because of sickness absence in terms of frequency, length (longer than 14 days), and duration (more than 7 days) of sickness absence. This positive effect is observed in the case of seeking social support only for the duration of sickness absence and in the case of palliative reaction only for the length and frequency of absence. In contrast, an avoidant coping style, representing a reactive–passive strategy, increases the likelihood of frequent absences significantly, as well as the length and duration of sickness absence. Expression of emotions, representing another reactive–passive strategy, has no effect on future sickness absenteeism. The median time before the onset of a new episode of absenteeism is significantly extended for active problem-solving and reduced for avoidance and for a palliative response. The results of the present study support the notion that problem-solving coping and reactive–passive strategies are inextricably connected to frequency, duration, length and onset of sickness absence. Especially, active problem-solving decreases the chance of future sickness absence. PMID:17701200

Coping and sickness absence.

PubMed

van Rhenen, Willem; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; van Dijk, Frank J H; Blonk, Roland W B

2008-02-01

The aim of this study is to examine the role of coping styles in sickness absence. In line with findings that contrast the reactive-passive focused strategies, problem-solving strategies are generally associated with positive results in terms of well-being and overall health outcomes; our hypothesis is that such strategies are positively related to a low frequency of sickness absence and with short lengths (total number of days absent) and durations (mean duration per spell). Using a prospective design, employees' (N = 3,628) responses on a self-report coping inventory are used to predict future registered sickness absence (i.e. frequency, length, duration, and median time before the onset of a new sick leave period). In accordance with our hypothesis, and after adjustment for potential confounders, employees with an active problem-solving coping strategy are less likely to drop out because of sickness absence in terms of frequency, length (longer than 14 days), and duration (more than 7 days) of sickness absence. This positive effect is observed in the case of seeking social support only for the duration of sickness absence and in the case of palliative reaction only for the length and frequency of absence. In contrast, an avoidant coping style, representing a reactive-passive strategy, increases the likelihood of frequent absences significantly, as well as the length and duration of sickness absence. Expression of emotions, representing another reactive-passive strategy, has no effect on future sickness absenteeism. The median time before the onset of a new episode of absenteeism is significantly extended for active problem-solving and reduced for avoidance and for a palliative response. The results of the present study support the notion that problem-solving coping and reactive-passive strategies are inextricably connected to frequency, duration, length and onset of sickness absence. Especially, active problem-solving decreases the chance of future sickness absence.

Recalled Initiation and Duration of Maternal Breastfeeding Among Children with and Without ADHD in a Well Characterized Case-Control Sample.

PubMed

Stadler, Diane D; Musser, Erica D; Holton, Kathleen F; Shannon, Jackilen; Nigg, Joel T

2016-02-01

Early environmental influences are increasingly of interest in understanding ADHD as a neurodevelopmental condition, particularly in light of recognition that gene by environment interplay are likely involved in this condition. Breastfeeding duration predicts cognitive development, as well as development of brain white matter connectivity, in areas similar to those seen in ADHD. Prior studies show an association between breastfeeding and ADHD but without adequate evaluation of ADHD. A case control cohort of 474 children aged 7-13 years was examined, 291 with well characterized ADHD (71.5 % male) and the rest typically developing controls (51.9 % male). Mothers retrospectively reported on breast feeding initiation and duration. Initiation of breastfeeding was not associated with child ADHD, but shorter duration of breastfeeding was associated with child ADHD with a medium effect size (d = 0.40, p < 0.05); this effect held after covarying a broad set of potential confounders, including child oppositional defiant and conduct problems and including maternal and paternal ADHD symptoms. Effects were replicated across both parent and teacher ratings of child ADHD symptoms. Shorter duration of breastfeeding is among several risk factors in early life associated with future ADHD, or else longer duration is protective. The direction of this effect is unknown, however. It may be that some children are more difficult to breastfeed or that breastfeeding provides nutrients or other benefits that reduce future chance of ADHD.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Sleep problems, short sleep and a combination of both increase the risk of depressive symptoms in older people: a 6-year follow-up investigation from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Jackowska, Marta; Poole, Lydia

2017-09-01

This study investigated whether sleep problems, sleep duration and a combination of short or long sleep with sleep problems were predictive of depressive symptoms six years later. Participants were 4545 men and women aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Sleep problems were indexed through self-report enquiring about the most frequent insomnia symptoms including difficulties falling asleep, waking up several times a night and waking up in the morning feeling tired. Sleep duration was ascertained by asking about average sleep in the weeknight. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale. Sleep problems were predictive of elevated depressive symptoms at follow-up (odds ratio [OR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19-1.56). When explored separately, waking up in the morning feeling tired (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.24-2.37) followed by difficulties falling asleep (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.06-2.11) were also predictors of future depressive symptoms. Compared to optimal duration, short (OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.34-2.71) but not long sleep hours were also linked to elevated depressive symptoms. Participants reporting short sleep hours combined with high sleep problems also had an elevated risk of depressive symptoms six years later (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.15-3.00). Long sleep combined with high sleep problems was not predictive of depressive symptoms. Short and disturbed sleep and their combination increase the risk of future depressive symptoms in older adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowledge of Previous Tasks: Task Similarity Influences Bias in Task Duration Predictions

PubMed Central

Thomas, Kevin E.; König, Cornelius J.

2018-01-01

Bias in predictions of task duration has been attributed to misremembering previous task duration and using previous task duration as a basis for predictions. This research sought to further examine how previous task information affects prediction bias by manipulating task similarity and assessing the role of previous task duration feedback. Task similarity was examined through participants performing two tasks 1 week apart that were the same or different. Duration feedback was provided to all participants (Experiment 1), its recall was manipulated (Experiment 2), and its provision was manipulated (Experiment 3). In all experiments, task similarity influenced bias on the second task, with predictions being less biased when the first task was the same task. However, duration feedback did not influence bias. The findings highlight the pivotal role of knowledge about previous tasks in task duration prediction and are discussed in relation to the theoretical accounts of task duration prediction bias. PMID:29881362

Predicting Soil Frost and its Response to Climate Change in Northeastern U.S. Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicklein, H. F.; Ollinger, S. V.; Campbell, J.; Frolking, S.

2007-12-01

Depth and duration of seasonal snow cover has important effects on temperate forest ecosystems. In the northeastern U.S., recent predictions are that climate warming over the coming century will cause an increase in soil freezing as soils lose the insulation of continuous wintertime snow cover. These studies have also linked soil freezing to elevated nitrate export from soils and streams. In the present study, we used a physically based energy and water exchange model, SHAW (Simultaneous Heat and Water), to predict soil frost and snowpack dynamics at three forested sites in New England: Hubbard Brook (NH), Harvard Forest (MA), and Howland Forest (ME). Results indicate an inverse relationship across all three sites between the depth and duration of the snowpack and soil frost. Simulations were conducted for all three sites with historical weather data for the past 20-40 years, and for future projections (2000-2100) using two different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi and BI) derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations. Under both scenarios and at all three sites, SHAW predicted that both the amount of soil frost and the number of extreme soil freezing events will decrease during the 2000-2100 period. In addition, there was no relationship between predicted soil frost, 1966-2000, and observed stream nitrate concentration at Hubbard Brook. These results run counter to existing theories regarding both the impacts of soil frost and the changes that are expected to occur into the future. There was, however, a positive correlation between predicted soil frost and growing season CO2 uptake at Harvard Forest over the 1992-2002 period. This suggests that soil freezing does play an important role in forest biogeochemistry, albeit a different role than that which has been discussed in the literature.

Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

PubMed

Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

2016-04-01

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

Space immunology - Past, present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulter, Gary R.; Taylor, Gerald R.; Sonnenfeld, Gerald

1989-01-01

Research results on the causes and mechanisms of change in immune systems during spaceflight are briefly reviewed. The most reliable conclusion from the sparse existing data is that postflight crew members exhibit a transient neutrophilia, eosinopenia, monocytopenia, reduced numbers of circulating T cells, and an often pronounced decrease in the ability of their T cells to respond to mitogen stimulation. Clinically, no direct predictive relationship between any of these measurements and increased health risk or disease has been established. Future areas of research are suggested in light of NASA's emerging requirements to support long-duration missions.

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT

PubMed Central

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-01-01

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process. PMID:27827909

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT.

PubMed

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-11-04

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

Individualized Behavioral Health Monitoring Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mollicone, Daniel

2015-01-01

Behavioral health risks during long-duration space exploration missions are among the most difficult to predict, detect, and mitigate. Given the anticipated extended duration of future missions and their isolated, extreme, and confined environments, there is the possibility that behavior conditions and mental disorders will develop among astronaut crew. Pulsar Informatics, Inc., has developed a health monitoring tool that provides a means to detect and address behavioral disorders and mental conditions at an early stage. The tool integrates all available behavioral measures collected during a mission to identify possible health indicator warning signs within the context of quantitatively tracked mission stressors. It is unobtrusive and requires minimal crew time and effort to train and utilize. The monitoring tool can be deployed in space analog environments for validation testing and ultimate deployment in long-duration space exploration missions.

Measures of behavioral function predict duration of video game play: Utilization of the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised.

PubMed

Buono, Frank D; Griffiths, Mark D; Sprong, Matthew E; Lloyd, Daniel P; Sullivan, Ryan M; Upton, Thomas D

2017-12-01

Background Internet gaming disorder (IGD) was introduced in the DSM-5 as a way of identifying and diagnosing problematic video game play. However, the use of the diagnosis is constrained, as it shares criteria with other addictive orders (e.g., pathological gambling). Aims Further work is required to better understand IGD. One potential avenue of investigation is IGD's relationship to the primary reinforcing behavioral functions. This study explores the relationship between duration of video game play and the reinforcing behavioral functions that may motivate or maintain video gaming. Methods A total of 499 video game players began the online survey, with complete data from 453 participants (85% white and 28% female), were analyzed. Individuals were placed into five groups based on self-reported hours of video gaming per week, and completed the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised (VGFA-R). Results The results demonstrated the escape and social attention function were significant in predicting duration of video game play, whereas sensory and tangible were not significant. Conclusion Future implications of the VGFA-R and behaviorally based research are discussed.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Model Predictive Control-based gait pattern generation for wearable exoskeletons.

PubMed

Wang, Letian; van Asseldonk, Edwin H F; van der Kooij, Herman

2011-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for controlling wearable exoskeletons that do not need predefined joint trajectories. Instead, it only needs basic gait descriptors such as step length, swing duration, and walking speed. End point Model Predictive Control (MPC) is used to generate the online joint trajectories based on these gait parameters. Real-time ability and control performance of the method during the swing phase of gait cycle is studied in this paper. Experiments are performed by helping a human subject swing his leg with different patterns in the LOPES gait trainer. Results show that the method is able to assist subjects to make steps with different step length and step duration without predefined joint trajectories and is fast enough for real-time implementation. Future study of the method will focus on controlling the exoskeletons in the entire gait cycle. © 2011 IEEE

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The longevity of lava dome eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolpert, Robert L.; Ogburn, Sarah E.; Calder, Eliza S.

2016-02-01

Understanding the duration of past, ongoing, and future volcanic eruptions is an important scientific goal and a key societal need. We present a new methodology for forecasting the duration of ongoing and future lava dome eruptions based on a database (DomeHaz) recently compiled by the authors. The database includes duration and composition for 177 such eruptions, with "eruption" defined as the period encompassing individual episodes of dome growth along with associated quiescent periods during which extrusion pauses but unrest continues. In a key finding, we show that probability distributions for dome eruption durations are both heavy tailed and composition dependent. We construct objective Bayesian statistical models featuring heavy-tailed Generalized Pareto distributions with composition-specific parameters to make forecasts about the durations of new and ongoing eruptions that depend on both eruption duration to date and composition. Our Bayesian predictive distributions reflect both uncertainty about model parameter values (epistemic uncertainty) and the natural variability of the geologic processes (aleatoric uncertainty). The results are illustrated by presenting likely trajectories for 14 dome-building eruptions ongoing in 2015. Full representation of the uncertainty is presented for two key eruptions, Soufriére Hills Volcano in Montserrat (10-139 years, median 35 years) and Sinabung, Indonesia (1-17 years, median 4 years). Uncertainties are high but, importantly, quantifiable. This work provides for the first time a quantitative and transferable method and rationale on which to base long-term planning decisions for lava dome-forming volcanoes, with wide potential use and transferability to forecasts of other types of eruptions and other adverse events across the geohazard spectrum.

Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litchman, E.; Klausmeier, C. A.; Miller, J. R.; Schofield, O. M.; Falkowski, P. G.

2006-11-01

Phytoplankton community composition profoundly affects patterns of nutrient cycling and the dynamics of marine food webs; therefore predicting present and future phytoplankton community structure is crucial to understand how ocean ecosystems respond to physical forcing and nutrient limitations. We develop a mechanistic model of phytoplankton communities that includes multiple taxonomic groups (diatoms, coccolithophores and prasinophytes), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron), light, and a generalist zooplankton grazer. Each taxonomic group was parameterized based on an extensive literature survey. We test the model at two contrasting sites in the modern ocean, the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and subarctic North Pacific (ocean station Papa, OSP). The model successfully predicts general patterns of community composition and succession at both sites: In the North Atlantic, the model predicts a spring diatom bloom, followed by coccolithophore and prasinophyte blooms later in the season. In the North Pacific, the model reproduces the low chlorophyll community dominated by prasinophytes and coccolithophores, with low total biomass variability and high nutrient concentrations throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the identity of the most sensitive parameters and the range of acceptable parameters differed between the two sites. We then use the model to predict community reorganization under different global change scenarios: a later onset and extended duration of stratification, with shallower mixed layer depths due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations; increase in deep water nitrogen; decrease in deep water phosphorus and increase or decrease in iron concentration. To estimate uncertainty in our predictions, we used a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space where future scenarios were run using parameter combinations that produced acceptable modern day outcomes and the robustness of the predictions was determined. Change in the onset and duration of stratification altered the timing and the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom in the North Atlantic and increased total phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass in the North Pacific. Changes in nutrient concentrations in some cases changed dominance patterns of major groups, as well as total chlorophyll and zooplankton biomass. Based on these scenarios, our model suggests that global environmental change will inevitably alter phytoplankton community structure and potentially impact global biogeochemical cycles.

Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-04-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

PubMed Central

Falk, Donald A.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. PMID:29244839

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Falk, Donald A; Westerling, Anthony L; Swetnam, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

Duration of resuscitation efforts for in-hospital cardiac arrest by predicted outcomes: Insights from Get With The Guidelines – Resuscitation✩

PubMed Central

Bradley, Steven M.; Liu, Wenhui; Chan, Paul S.; Girotra, Saket; Goldberger, Zahary D.; Valle, Javier A.; Perman, Sarah M.; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.

2017-01-01

Background The duration of resuscitation efforts has implications for patient survival of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). It is unknown if patients with better predicted survival of IHCA receive longer attempts at resuscitation. Methods In a multicenter observational cohort of 40,563 adult non-survivors of resuscitation efforts for IHCA between 2000 and 2012, we determined the pre-arrest predicted probability of survival to discharge with good neurologic status, categorized into very low (<1%), low (1–3%), average (>3%–15%), and above average (>15%). We then determined the association between predicted arrest survival probability and the duration of resuscitation efforts. Results The median duration of resuscitation efforts among all non-survivors was 19 min (interquartile range 13–28 min). Overall, the median duration of resuscitation efforts was longer in non-survivors with a higher predicted probability of survival with good neurologic status (median of 16, 17, 20, and 23 min among the groups predicted to have very low, low, average, and above probabilities, respectively; P < 0.001). However, the duration of resuscitation was often discordant with predicted survival, including longer than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 40.4% of patients with very low predicted survival and shorter than median duration of resuscitation efforts in 31.9% of patients with above average predicted survival. Conclusions The duration of resuscitation efforts in patients with IHCA was generally consistent with their predicted survival. However, nearly a third of patients with above average predicted outcomes received shorter than average (less than 19 min) duration of resuscitation efforts. PMID:28039064

Sleep duration, cognitive decline, and dementia risk in older women

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Espeland, Mark A.; Brunner, Robert L.; Lovato, Laura C.; Wallace, Robert B.; Leng, Xiaoyan; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Robinson, Jennifer G.; Kotchen, Jane M.; Johnson, Karen C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Sarto, Gloria E.; Mysiw, W. Jerry

2015-01-01

Background Consistent evidence linking habitual sleep duration with risks of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia is lacking. Methods We conducted a prospective study on 7444 community-dwelling women (aged 65–80) with self-reported sleep duration, within the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study in 1995–2008. Incident MCI/dementia cases were ascertained by validated protocols. Cox models were used to adjust for multiple sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and other clinical characteristics. Results We found a statistically significant (p=0.03) V-shaped association, with a higher MCI/dementia risk in women with either short (≤6 hours/night) or long (≥8 hours/night) sleep duration (vs.7 hours/night). The multicovariate-adjusted hazard for MCI/dementia was increased by 36% in short sleepers irrespective of CVD, and by 35% in long sleepers without CVD. A similar V-shaped association was found with cognitive decline. Conclusion In older women, habitual sleep duration predicts the future risk for cognitive impairments including dementia, independent of vascular risk factors. PMID:26086180

Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

2017-07-01

Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the existing relationships.

Limitations in predicting the space radiation health risk for exploration astronauts.

PubMed

Chancellor, Jeffery C; Blue, Rebecca S; Cengel, Keith A; Auñón-Chancellor, Serena M; Rubins, Kathleen H; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Kennedy, Ann R

2018-01-01

Despite years of research, understanding of the space radiation environment and the risk it poses to long-duration astronauts remains limited. There is a disparity between research results and observed empirical effects seen in human astronaut crews, likely due to the numerous factors that limit terrestrial simulation of the complex space environment and extrapolation of human clinical consequences from varied animal models. Given the intended future of human spaceflight, with efforts now to rapidly expand capabilities for human missions to the moon and Mars, there is a pressing need to improve upon the understanding of the space radiation risk, predict likely clinical outcomes of interplanetary radiation exposure, and develop appropriate and effective mitigation strategies for future missions. To achieve this goal, the space radiation and aerospace community must recognize the historical limitations of radiation research and how such limitations could be addressed in future research endeavors. We have sought to highlight the numerous factors that limit understanding of the risk of space radiation for human crews and to identify ways in which these limitations could be addressed for improved understanding and appropriate risk posture regarding future human spaceflight.

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Predicts Future Weight Change in the Millennium Cohort Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

weight changes in individuals with PTSD: (1) sleep deprivation caused by PTSD, as shorter sleep duration has been linked to higher obesity prevalence...eating and dieting behaviors (12), and (4) medications prescribed for PTSD that may affect body weight (13). Since obesity increases the risk of...traumatic stress disorder (exposure) and subsequent 3 year weight change (outcome). Original Article Obesity EPIDEMIOLOGY/GENETICS www.obesityjournal.org

Sleep characteristics, body mass index, and risk for hypertension in young adolescents.

PubMed

Peach, Hannah; Gaultney, Jane F; Reeve, Charlie L

2015-02-01

Inadequate sleep has been identified as a risk factor for a variety of health consequences. For example, short sleep durations and daytime sleepiness, an indicator of insufficient sleep and/or poor sleep quality, have been identified as risk factors for hypertension in the adult population. However, less evidence exists regarding whether these relationships hold within child and early adolescent samples and what factors mediate the relationship between sleep and risk for hypertension. Using data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the present study examined body mass index (BMI) as a possible mediator for the effects of school-night sleep duration, weekend night sleep duration, and daytime sleepiness on risk for hypertension in a sample of sixth graders. The results demonstrated gender-specific patterns. Among boys, all three sleep characteristics predicted BMI and yielded significant indirect effects on risk for hypertension. Oppositely, only daytime sleepiness predicted BMI among girls and yielded a significant indirect effect on risk for hypertension. The findings provide clarification for the influence of sleep on the risk for hypertension during early adolescence and suggest a potential need for gender-specific designs in future research and application endeavors.

Family income, school attendance, and academic achievement in elementary school.

PubMed

Morrissey, Taryn W; Hutchison, Lindsey; Winsler, Adam

2014-03-01

Low family income is associated with poor academic achievement among children. Higher rates of school absence and tardiness may be one mechanism through which low family income impacts children's academic success. This study examines relations between family income, as measured by receipt of free or reduced-price lunch, school attendance, and academic achievement among a diverse sample of children from kindergarten to 4th grade (N = 35,419) using both random and within-child fixed-effects models. Generally, results suggest that the receipt of free or reduced-price lunch and duration of receipt have small but positive associations with school absences and tardies. Poor attendance patterns predict poorer grades, with absences more associated with grades than tardies. Given the small associations between receipt of free or reduced-price lunch and school attendance, and between the duration of receipt of free or reduced-price lunch and children's grades, results do not provide strong evidence that absences and tardies meaningfully attenuate relations between the duration of low family income and student achievement; poorer attendance and persistent low income independently predict poorer grades. Implications for policy and future research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Particle Fluence for Mission Durations and Exposure Assessment in Consideration of Integral Proton Fluence at High Energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. Y.; Tylka, A. J.; Dietrich, W. F.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2012-12-01

The occasional occurrence of solar particle events (SPEs) with large amounts of energy is non-predictable, while the expected frequency is strongly influenced by solar cycle activity. The potential for exposure to large SPEs with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the Moon, near Earth object, and Mars surface for future long duration space missions. We estimated the propensity for SPE occurrence with large proton fluence as a function of time within a typical future solar cycle from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, Φ30. The database includes a comprehensive collection of historical data set for the past 5 solar cycles. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs, total fluence distributions of Φ30, Φ60, and Φ100 were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile for each mission durations. In addition to the total particle intensity of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the radiation cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. For radiation exposure assessments of major SPEs, we used the spectral functional form of a double power law in rigidity (the so-called Band function), which have provided a satisfactory representation of the combined satellite and neutron monitor data from ~10 MeV to ~10 GeV. The dependencies of exposure risk were evaluated as a function of proton fluence at a given energy threshold of 30, 60, and 100 MeV, and overall risk prediction was improved as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. The results can be applied to the development of approaches of improved radiation protection for astronauts, as well as the optimization of mission planning and shielding for future space missions.

Shortened Sleep Duration does not Predict Obesity in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Calamaro, Christina J.; Park, Sunhee; Mason, Thornton B. A.; Marcus, Carole L.; Weaver, Terri E.; Pack, Allan; Ratcliffe, Sarah J.

2010-01-01

Obesity continues to be a major public health issue. In adolescents, there are limited studies on the relationship between obesity and sleep duration. We hypothesied that average sleep duration of less than 6 hours in adolescents was associated with obesity. Data was from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD Health); survey of 90,000 youths, ages 12 – 18 years; surveyed in several waves. The sample population for our study was 13,568. Weighted multiple logistic regression was used to identify relationship between obesity at Wave II and sleep duration, having adjusted for skipping breakfast ≥ 2/week; race, gender, parental income, TV ≥ 2hrs/day, depression, and obesity at Wave I. At Wave I, mean age 15.96±0.11 yrs; mean sleep hours 7.91±0.04. 10.6% and 11.2% of adolescents were obese at Waves I and II, respectively. Adjusted analyses suggest that effect of shortened sleep duration in Wave I was not significantly predictive of obesity in Wave II (p<0.218).Longitudinally, depression and TV ≥ 2hrs/day at Wave I was associated with higher risk of obesity at Wave II in adjusted analyses. Depressed adolescents were almost twice as likely to be obese (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.25–2.72); adolescents who watched TV ≥ 2hrs/day were 37% more likely to be obese (OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.09–1.72).Environmental factors including TV ≥ 2hrs/day and depression were significantly associated with obesity; shortened sleep duration was not. Future longitudinal studies in adolescents are needed to determine whether timing of television watching directly influences sleep patterns, and ultimately obesity. PMID:20545836

Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik

2010-01-01

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

Genomic Selection Improves Heat Tolerance in Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Garner, J. B.; Douglas, M. L.; Williams, S. R. O; Wales, W. J.; Marett, L. C.; Nguyen, T. T. T.; Reich, C. M.; Hayes, B. J.

2016-01-01

Dairy products are a key source of valuable proteins and fats for many millions of people worldwide. Dairy cattle are highly susceptible to heat-stress induced decline in milk production, and as the frequency and duration of heat-stress events increases, the long term security of nutrition from dairy products is threatened. Identification of dairy cattle more tolerant of heat stress conditions would be an important progression towards breeding better adapted dairy herds to future climates. Breeding for heat tolerance could be accelerated with genomic selection, using genome wide DNA markers that predict tolerance to heat stress. Here we demonstrate the value of genomic predictions for heat tolerance in cohorts of Holstein cows predicted to be heat tolerant and heat susceptible using controlled-climate chambers simulating a moderate heatwave event. Not only was the heat challenge stimulated decline in milk production less in cows genomically predicted to be heat-tolerant, physiological indicators such as rectal and intra-vaginal temperatures had reduced increases over the 4 day heat challenge. This demonstrates that genomic selection for heat tolerance in dairy cattle is a step towards securing a valuable source of nutrition and improving animal welfare facing a future with predicted increases in heat stress events. PMID:27682591

The Value of Biomedical Simulation Environments to Future Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulugeta,Lealem; Myers, Jerry G.; Lewandowski, Beth; Platts, Steven H.

2011-01-01

Mars and NEO missions will expose astronaut to extended durations of reduced reduced gravity, isolation and higher radiation. These new operation conditions pose health risks that are not well understood and perhaps unanticipated. Advanced computational simulation environments can beneficially augment research to predict, assess and mitigate potential hazards to astronaut health. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within the NASA Human Research Program, strives to achieve this goal.

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.

2012-01-01

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.

Stress and Sleep Duration Predict Headache Severity in Chronic Headache Sufferers

PubMed Central

Houle, Timothy T.; Butschek, Ross A.; Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Rains, Jeanetta C.; Penzien, Donald B.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the time-series relationships between stress, sleep duration, and headache pain among patients with chronic headaches. Sleep and stress have long been recognized as potential triggers of episodic headache (< 15 headache days/month), though prospective evidence is inconsistent and absent in patients diagnosed with chronic headaches (≥ 15 days/month). We reanalyzed data from a 28-day observational study of chronic migraine (n = 33) and chronic tension-type headache (n = 22) sufferers. Patients completed the Daily Stress Inventory and recorded headache and sleep variables using a daily sleep/headache diary. Stress ratings, duration of previous nights' sleep, and headache severity were modeled using a series of linear mixed models with random effects to account for individual differences in observed associations. Models were displayed using contour plots. Two consecutive days of either high stress or low sleep were strongly predictive of headache, whereas two days of low stress or adequate sleep were protective. When patterns of stress or sleep were divergent across days, headache risk was increased only when the earlier day was characterized by high stress or poor sleep. As predicted, headache activity in the combined model was highest when high stress and low sleep occurred concurrently during the prior 2 days denoting an additive effect. Future research is needed to expand on current findings among chronic headache patients and to develop individualized models that account for multiple simultaneous influences of headache trigger factors. PMID:23073072

Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time for which birds were disturbed. We discuss the consequences of these predictions for Black Brant conservation. A wide range of migratory species responses are expected in response to environmental change. Process-based models are potential tools to predict such responses and understand the mechanisms which underpin them.

Preinjury somatization symptoms contribute to clinical recovery after sport-related concussion.

PubMed

Nelson, Lindsay D; Tarima, Sergey; LaRoche, Ashley A; Hammeke, Thomas A; Barr, William B; Guskiewicz, Kevin; Randolph, Christopher; McCrea, Michael A

2016-05-17

To determine the degree to which preinjury and acute postinjury psychosocial and injury-related variables predict symptom duration following sport-related concussion. A total of 2,055 high school and collegiate athletes completed preseason evaluations. Concussed athletes (n = 127) repeated assessments serially (<24 hours and days 8, 15, and 45) postinjury. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to predict concussive symptom duration (in days). Predictors considered included demographic and history variables; baseline psychological, neurocognitive, and balance functioning; acute injury characteristics; and postinjury clinical measures. Preinjury somatic symptom score (Brief Symptom Inventory-18 somatization scale) was the strongest premorbid predictor of symptom duration. Acute (24-hour) postconcussive symptom burden (Sport Concussion Assessment Tool-3 symptom severity) was the best injury-related predictor of recovery. These 2 predictors were moderately correlated (r = 0.51). Path analyses indicated that the relationship between preinjury somatization symptoms and symptom recovery was mediated by postinjury concussive symptoms. Preinjury somatization symptoms contribute to reported postconcussive symptom recovery via their influence on acute postconcussive symptoms. The findings highlight the relevance of premorbid psychological factors in postconcussive recovery, even in a healthy athlete sample relatively free of psychopathology or medical comorbidities. Future research should elucidate the neurobiopsychosocial mechanisms that explain the role of this individual difference variable in outcome following concussive injury. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Basic Fibroblast Growth Factor Predicts Cardiovascular Disease Occurrence in Participants from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial

PubMed Central

Zimering, Mark B.; Anderson, Robert J.; Ge, Ling; Moritz, Thomas E.; Duckworth, William C.

2013-01-01

Aim: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The aim of the present study was to test whether plasma basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) levels predict future CVD occurrence in adults from the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial (VADT). Methods: Nearly 400 veterans, 40 years of age or older having a mean baseline diabetes duration of 11.4 years were recruited from outpatient clinics at six geographically distributed sites in the VADT. Within the VADT, they were randomly assigned to intensive or standard glycemic treatment, with follow-up as much as seven and one-half years. CVD occurrence was examined at baseline in the patient population and during randomized treatment. Plasma bFGF was determined with a sensitive, specific two-site enzyme-linked immunoassay at the baseline study visit in all 399 subjects and repeated at the year 1 study visit in a randomly selected subset of 215 subjects. Results: One hundred and five first cardiovascular events occurred in these 399 subjects. The best fit model of risk factors associated with the time to first CVD occurrence (in the study) over a seven and one-half year period had as significant predictors: prior cardiovascular event [hazard ratio (HR) 3.378; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 3.079–3.807; P < 0.0001), baseline plasma bFGF (HR 1.008; 95% CI 1.002–1.014; P = 0.01), age (HR 1.027; 95% CI 1.004–1.051; P = 0.019), baseline plasma triglycerides (HR 1.001; 95% CI 1.000–1.002; P = 0.02), and diabetes duration-treatment interaction (P = 0.03). Intensive glucose-lowering was associated with significantly decreased hazard ratios for CVD occurrence (0.38–0.63) in patients with known diabetes duration of 0–10 years, and non-significantly increased hazard ratios for CVD occurrence (0.82–1.78) in patients with longer diabetes duration. Conclusion: High level of plasma bFGF is a predictive biomarker of future CVD occurrence in this population of adult type 2 diabetes. PMID:24319441

Scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Reed, David A; Washington, Rhyan L; Eckhardt, Alison; Anapol, Fred; Shahnoor, Nazima

2009-01-01

The biomechanical determinants of the scaling of chew cycle duration are important components of models of primate feeding systems at all levels, from the neuromechanical to the ecological. Chew cycle durations were estimated in 35 species of primates and analyzed in conjunction with data on morphological variables of the feeding system estimating moment of inertia of the mandible and force production capacity of the chewing muscles. Data on scaling of primate chew cycle duration were compared with the predictions of simple pendulum and forced mass-spring system models of the feeding system. The gravity-driven pendulum model best predicts the observed cycle duration scaling but is rejected as biomechanically unrealistic. The forced mass-spring model predicts larger increases in chew cycle duration with size than observed, but provides reasonable predictions of cycle duration scaling. We hypothesize that intrinsic properties of the muscles predict spring-like behavior of the jaw elevator muscles during opening and fast close phases of the jaw cycle and that modulation of stiffness by the central nervous system leads to spring-like properties during the slow close/power stroke phase. Strepsirrhines show no predictable relationship between chew cycle duration and jaw length. Anthropoids have longer chew cycle durations than nonprimate mammals with similar mandible lengths, possibly due to their enlarged symphyses, which increase the moment of inertia of the mandible. Deviations from general scaling trends suggest that both scaling of the jaw muscles and the inertial properties of the mandible are important in determining the scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

The association between sleep duration and weight gain in adults: a 6-year prospective study from the Quebec Family Study.

PubMed

Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Després, Jean-Pierre; Bouchard, Claude; Tremblay, Angelo

2008-04-01

To investigate the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent body weight and fat gain. Six-year longitudinal study. Community setting. Two hundred seventy-six adults aged 21 to 64 years from the Quebec Family Study. More than half of the sample is drawn from families with at least 1 parent and 1 offspring with a body mass index of 32 kg/m2 or higher. Body composition measurements and self-reported sleep duration were determined. Changes in adiposity indices were compared between short- (5-6 hours), average- (7-8 hours), and long- (9-10 hours) duration sleeper groups. After adjustment for age, sex, and baseline body mass index, short-duration sleepers gained 1.98 kg (95% confidence interval: 1.16-2.82) more and long-duration sleepers gained 1.58 kg (95% CI: 1.02-2.56) more than did average-duration sleepers over 6 years. Short- and long-duration sleepers were 35% and 25% more likely to experience a 5-kg weight gain, respectively, as compared with average-duration sleepers over 6 years. The risk of developing obesity was elevated for short- and long-duration sleepers as compared with average-duration sleepers, with 27% and 21% increases in risk, respectively. These associations remained significant after inclusion of important covariates and were not affected by adjustment for energy intake and physical activity participation. This study provides evidence that both short and long sleeping times predict an increased risk of future body weight and fat gain in adults. Hence, these results emphasize the need to add sleep duration to the panel of determinants that contribute to weight gain and obesity.

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.; ...

2015-05-12

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior: A Danish Study of Adolescents at a High Risk of Suicide.

PubMed

Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William; Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul

2017-07-03

Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85 adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior at follow-up over and above suicidal behavior at baseline. Actual suicide attempts at baseline strongly predicted suicide attempts at follow-up. Baseline suicidal ideation severity and intensity did not significantly predict future actual attempts over and above baseline attempts. The suicidal ideation intensity items deterrents and duration were significant predictors of subsequent actual attempts after adjustment for baseline suicide attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, respectively. Suicidal ideation severity and intensity, and the intensity items frequency, duration and deterrents, all significantly predicted any type of suicidal behavior at follow-up, also after adjusting for baseline suicidal behavior. The present study points to an incremental predictive validity of the C-SSRS suicidal ideation scales for short-term suicidal behavior of any type among high-risk adolescents.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling.

PubMed

Fang, Wei; Li, Jiu-Ke; Jin, Xiao-Hong; Dai, Yuan-Min; Li, Yu-Min

2016-01-01

To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment (RRD) after sclera buckling (SB). Totally 48 patients (51 eyes) with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), posterior vitreous detachment (PVD), baseline best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student's t-test, Wilcoxon two-sample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 logMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761±0.4956 logMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% (47/51). Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration (r=0.3850, P=0.0053), less detached area (r=0.5489, P<0.0001), fovea (r=0.4605, P=0.0007), no PVR (r=0.3138, P=0.0250), better baseline BCVA (r=0.7291, P<0.0001), shorter operative duration (r=0.3233, P=0.0207) and longer follow up (r=-0.3358, P=0.0160) were related with better final BCVA, while independent predictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square (PR(2))=0.5316, P<0.0001], shorter symptoms duration (PR(2)=0.0609, P=0.0101), longer follow up duration (PR(2)=0.0278, P=0.0477) and shorter operative duration (PR(2)=0.0338, P=0.0350). Patients with vision improvement took up 49.02% (25/51). Univariate and multivariate analyses both revealed predictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio (OR) =50.369, P=0.0041] and longer follow up duration (OR=1.144, P=0.0067). Independent predictive factors for better visual outcome of primary chronic RRD after SB are better baseline BCVA, shorter symptoms duration, shorter operative duration and longer follow up duration, while independent predictive factors for better vision improvement after operation are better baseline vision and longer follow up duration.

Weight Suppression Predicts Maintenance and Onset of Bulimic Syndromes at 10-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Keel, Pamela K.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2010-01-01

Conflicting results have emerged regarding the prognostic significance of weight suppression for maintenance of bulimic symptoms. This study examined whether the magnitude of weight suppression would predict bulimic syndrome maintenance and onset in college-based samples of men (n=369) and women (n=968) at 10-year follow-up. Data come from a longitudinal study of body weight and disordered eating with high retention (80%). Among those with a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression significantly predicted maintenance of the syndrome, and, among those without a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression predicted onset of a bulimic syndrome at 10-year follow-up in multivariate models that included baseline body mass index, diet frequency, and weight perception. Future research should address mechanisms that could account for the effects of weight suppression over a long duration of follow-up. PMID:20455599

Surfing depth on a behaviour change website: predictors and effects on behaviour.

PubMed

Jacobs, Nele; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Claes, Neree

2010-03-01

The primary objectives of the present study were to gain insight into website use and to predict the surfing depth on a behaviour change website and its effect on behaviour. Two hundred eight highly educated adults from the intervention condition of a randomised trial received access to a medical intervention, individual coaching (by e-mail, post, telephone or face-to-face) and a behaviour change website. Website use (e.g. surfing depth, page view duration) was registered. Online questionnaires for physical activity and fat intake were filled out at baseline and after 6 months. Hierarchical linear regression was used to predict surfing depth and its effect on behaviour. Seventy-five per cent of the participants visited the website. Fifty-one and fifty-six per cent consulted the physical activity and fat intake feedback, respectively. The median surfing depth was 2. The total duration of interventions by e-mail predicted deeper surfing (beta=0.36; p<0.001). Surfing depth did not predict changes in fat intake (beta=-0.07; p=0.45) or physical activity (beta=-0.03; p=0.72). Consulting the physical activity feedback led to more physical activity (beta=0.23; p=0.01). The findings from the present study can be used to guide future website development and improve the information architecture of behaviour change websites.

Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

2018-03-01

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Stress and sleep duration predict headache severity in chronic headache sufferers.

PubMed

Houle, Timothy T; Butschek, Ross A; Turner, Dana P; Smitherman, Todd A; Rains, Jeanetta C; Penzien, Donald B

2012-12-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the time-series relationships between stress, sleep duration, and headache pain among patients with chronic headaches. Sleep and stress have long been recognized as potential triggers of episodic headache (<15 headache days/month), though prospective evidence is inconsistent and absent in patients diagnosed with chronic headaches (≥15 days/month). We reanalyzed data from a 28-day observational study of chronic migraine (n=33) and chronic tension-type headache (n=22) sufferers. Patients completed the Daily Stress Inventory and recorded headache and sleep variables using a daily sleep/headache diary. Stress ratings, duration of previous nights' sleep, and headache severity were modeled using a series of linear mixed models with random effects to account for individual differences in observed associations. Models were displayed using contour plots. Two consecutive days of either high stress or low sleep were strongly predictive of headache, whereas 2 days of low stress or adequate sleep were protective. When patterns of stress or sleep were divergent across days, headache risk was increased only when the earlier day was characterized by high stress or poor sleep. As predicted, headache activity in the combined model was highest when high stress and low sleep occurred concurrently during the prior 2 days, denoting an additive effect. Future research is needed to expand on current findings among chronic headache patients and to develop individualized models that account for multiple simultaneous influences of headache trigger factors. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after groove penetration.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after

Data collection on retinopathy as a public health tool: The Hubble telescope equivalent of looking back in time.

PubMed

Constantino, Maria I; Molyneaux, Lynda; Wu, Ted; Twigg, Stephen M; Wong, Jencia; Yue, Dennis K

2017-04-01

To test whether the rate of diabetic retinopathy development in a population calculated from the prevalence of retinopathy and duration of diabetes can be used to assess their prior glycemic control. 9281 patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) were grouped by duration of diabetes and plotted against the % of retinopathy in each band. The slope was used to calculate retinopathy development/year (RD/y). We correlated the RD/y with updated HbA1c within groups of different ethnicity, age of diabetes onset, year of the eye examination, socio-economic status and fluency in English. Differences in ethnicity, age of diabetes onset and year of the eye examination affect RD/y to a degree predictable from their respective updated HbA1c. No such relationship with updated HbA1c was evident when a factor has no apparent effect on RD/y. This relationship between prevalence of retinopathy and duration of diabetes can be used to assess future retinopathy burden. Perhaps more intriguing, the camera can be reversed to allow an estimate of prior glycemic control of a population from its retinopathy prevalence. Health care organizations can use this method to project future needs and to assess adequacy of prior glycemic control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the pain continuum after adolescent idiopathic scoliosis surgery: A prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chidambaran, V.; Ding, L.; Moore, D.L.; Spruance, K.; Cudilo, E.M.; Pilipenko, V.; Hossain, M.; Sturm, P.; Kashikar-Zuck, S.; Martin, L.J.; Sadhasivam, S.

2017-01-01

Background Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) affects half a million children annually in the United States, with dire socioeconomic consequences, including long-term disability into adulthood. The few studies of CPSP in children are limited by sample size, follow-up duration, non-homogeneity of surgical procedure and factors evaluated. Methods In a prospective study of 144 adolescents undergoing a single major surgery (spine fusion), we evaluated demographic, perioperative, surgical and psychosocial factors as predictors of a continuum of postsurgical pain: immediate, pain maintenance at 2–3 months (chronic pain/CP) and persistence of pain a year (persistent pain/PP) after surgery. Results We found an incidence of 37.8% and 41.8% for CP and PP. CP and acute pain were both significant predictors for developing PP (p-value <0.001 and 0.003). Preoperative pain and higher postoperative opioid requirement was significantly associated with CP (p = 0.015, p = 0.002), while Childhood Anxiety Sensitivity Index (p = 0.002) and surgical duration (p = 0.014) predicted PP. The final regression models had reasonable predictive accuracy (c-statistic of 0.73 and 0.83 for CP and PP, respectively). Anxiety scores and catastrophizing for child and parent were found to be significantly correlated (p = 0.005, p = 0.013 respectively). Pain trajectories revealed that 65% of patients who developed PP reported CP and high pain trends; however, 33% of those who developed PP could not be identified using solely pain criteria. Conclusion Persistent postsurgical pain in children is a significant problem. It can be predicted in part by combinations of psychological and clinical variables, which may provide evidence-based measures to prevent development of CPSP in the future. Significance In a homogeneous cohort of adolescents undergoing spine fusion, we report a high incidence of persistent postsurgical pain (41.8%) predicted by child anxiety, perioperative pain, and surgical duration. Our results stress timely preventive and therapeutic strategies. PMID:28346762

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Vibhu; Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-09-21

By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user's future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users' search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model's utility. We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers.

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-01-01

Background By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. Objective The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user’s future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. Methods We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users’ search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model’s utility. Results We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Conclusions Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers. PMID:27655225

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

2010-01-01

Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

The influence of coping styles on long-term employment in multiple sclerosis: A prospective study.

PubMed

Grytten, Nina; Skår, Anne Br; Aarseth, Jan Harald; Assmus, Jorg; Farbu, Elisabeth; Lode, Kirsten; Nyland, Harald I; Smedal, Tori; Myhr, Kjell Morten

2017-06-01

The aim was to investigate predictive values of coping styles, clinical and demographic factors on time to unemployment in patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) during 1998-2002 in Norway. All patients ( N = 108) diagnosed with MS 1998-2002 in Hordaland and Rogaland counties, Western Norway, were invited to participate in the long-term follow-up study in 2002. Baseline recordings included disability scoring (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)), fatigue (Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS)), depression (Beck Depression Inventory (BDI)), and questionnaire assessing coping (the Dispositional Coping Styles Scale (COPE)). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with unemployed at baseline, and Cox regression analysis to identify factors at baseline associated with time to unemployment during follow-up. In all, 41 (44%) were employed at baseline. After 13 years follow-up in 2015, mean disease duration of 22 years, 16 (17%) were still employed. Median time from baseline to unemployment was 6 years (±5). Older age at diagnosis, female gender, and depression were associated with patients being unemployed at baseline. Female gender, long disease duration, and denial as avoidant coping strategy at baseline predicted shorter time to unemployment. Avoidant coping style, female gender, and longer disease duration were associated with shorter time to unemployment. These factors should be considered when advising patients on MS and future employment.

Workflow and intervention times of MR-guided focused ultrasound - Predicting the impact of new techniques.

PubMed

Loeve, Arjo J; Al-Issawi, Jumana; Fernandez-Gutiérrez, Fabiola; Langø, Thomas; Strehlow, Jan; Haase, Sabrina; Matzko, Matthias; Napoli, Alessandro; Melzer, Andreas; Dankelman, Jenny

2016-04-01

Magnetic resonance guided focused ultrasound surgery (MRgFUS) has become an attractive, non-invasive treatment for benign and malignant tumours, and offers specific benefits for poorly accessible locations in the liver. However, the presence of the ribcage and the occurrence of liver motion due to respiration limit the applicability MRgFUS. Several techniques are being developed to address these issues or to decrease treatment times in other ways. However, the potential benefit of such improvements has not been quantified. In this research, the detailed workflow of current MRgFUS procedures was determined qualitatively and quantitatively by using observation studies on uterine MRgFUS interventions, and the bottlenecks in MRgFUS were identified. A validated simulation model based on discrete events simulation was developed to quantitatively predict the effect of new technological developments on the intervention duration of MRgFUS on the liver. During the observation studies, the duration and occurrence frequencies of all actions and decisions in the MRgFUS workflow were registered, as were the occurrence frequencies of motion detections and intervention halts. The observation results show that current MRgFUS uterine interventions take on average 213min. Organ motion was detected on average 2.9 times per intervention, of which on average 1.0 actually caused a need for rework. Nevertheless, these motion occurrences and the actions required to continue after their detection consumed on average 11% and up to 29% of the total intervention duration. The simulation results suggest that, depending on the motion occurrence frequency, the addition of new technology to automate currently manual MRgFUS tasks and motion compensation could potentially reduce the intervention durations by 98.4% (from 256h 5min to 4h 4min) in the case of 90% motion occurrence, and with 24% (from 5h 19min to 4h 2min) in the case of no motion. In conclusion, new tools were developed to predict how intervention durations will be affected by future workflow changes and by the introduction of new technology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The use of patient factors to improve the prediction of operative duration using laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Thiels, Cornelius A; Yu, Denny; Abdelrahman, Amro M; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Hallbeck, Susan; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Bingener, Juliane

2017-01-01

Reliable prediction of operative duration is essential for improving patient and care team satisfaction, optimizing resource utilization and reducing cost. Current operative scheduling systems are unreliable and contribute to costly over- and underestimation of operative time. We hypothesized that the inclusion of patient-specific factors would improve the accuracy in predicting operative duration. We reviewed all elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies performed at a single institution between 01/2007 and 06/2013. Concurrent procedures were excluded. Univariate analysis evaluated the effect of age, gender, BMI, ASA, laboratory values, smoking, and comorbidities on operative duration. Multivariable linear regression models were constructed using the significant factors (p < 0.05). The patient factors model was compared to the traditional surgical scheduling system estimates, which uses historical surgeon-specific and procedure-specific operative duration. External validation was done using the ACS-NSQIP database (n = 11,842). A total of 1801 laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients met inclusion criteria. Female sex was associated with reduced operative duration (-7.5 min, p < 0.001 vs. male sex) while increasing BMI (+5.1 min BMI 25-29.9, +6.9 min BMI 30-34.9, +10.4 min BMI 35-39.9, +17.0 min BMI 40 + , all p < 0.05 vs. normal BMI), increasing ASA (+7.4 min ASA III, +38.3 min ASA IV, all p < 0.01 vs. ASA I), and elevated liver function tests (+7.9 min, p < 0.01 vs. normal) were predictive of increased operative duration on univariate analysis. A model was then constructed using these predictive factors. The traditional surgical scheduling system was poorly predictive of actual operative duration (R 2  = 0.001) compared to the patient factors model (R 2  = 0.08). The model remained predictive on external validation (R 2  = 0.14).The addition of surgeon as a variable in the institutional model further improved predictive ability of the model (R 2  = 0.18). The use of routinely available pre-operative patient factors improves the prediction of operative duration during cholecystectomy.

Effects of metric hierarchy and rhyme predictability on word duration in The Cat in the Hat.

PubMed

Breen, Mara

2018-05-01

Word durations convey many types of linguistic information, including intrinsic lexical features like length and frequency and contextual features like syntactic and semantic structure. The current study was designed to investigate whether hierarchical metric structure and rhyme predictability account for durational variation over and above other features in productions of a rhyming, metrically-regular children's book: The Cat in the Hat (Dr. Seuss, 1957). One-syllable word durations and inter-onset intervals were modeled as functions of segment number, lexical frequency, word class, syntactic structure, repetition, and font emphasis. Consistent with prior work, factors predicting longer word durations and inter-onset intervals included more phonemes, lower frequency, first mention, alignment with a syntactic boundary, and capitalization. A model parameter corresponding to metric grid height improved model fit of word durations and inter-onset intervals. Specifically, speakers realized five levels of metric hierarchy with inter-onset intervals such that interval duration increased linearly with increased height in the metric hierarchy. Conversely, speakers realized only three levels of metric hierarchy with word duration, demonstrating that they shortened the highly predictable rhyme resolutions. These results further understanding of the factors that affect spoken word duration, and demonstrate the myriad cues that children receive about linguistic structure from nursery rhymes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correcting Memory Improves Accuracy of Predicted Task Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roy, Michael M.; Mitten, Scott T.; Christenfeld, Nicholas J. S.

2008-01-01

People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through…

Central aortic systolic blood pressure can predict prolonged QTc duration better than brachial artery systolic blood pressure in rural community residents.

PubMed

Huang, Yuqing; Tang, Songtao; Chen, Ji-Yan; Huang, Cheng; Li, Jie; Cai, An-Ping; Feng, Yingqing

2018-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that prolonged electrocardiogram QTc duration was independent risk factor for both increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, but there was no dating about the relationship between central aortic systolic blood pressure (CASP) and QTc duration. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between CASP and QTc duration, and assess whether CASP can predict prolonged QTc duration more than BSBP. A total of 500 patients were enrolled in this study, central and brachial aortic blood pressure and electrocardiogram QTc duration were measured. Pearson correlation was assessed for determining the associations of QTc duration with clinical conditions. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent predictor of prolonged QTc duration. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the utility of blood pressure for prolonged QTc duration. We found QTc durations were significantly positive with CASP (r = 0.308, p < 0.001), BSBP (r = 0.227, p < 0.001), and age (r = 0.154, p = 0.010), but negatively related to heart rate (r = -440, p < 0.001). A multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the CASP was an independent determinant of prolonged QTc (OR = 1.648; 95%CI: 1.032, 2.101; p < 0.001). CASP had a better predictive value for prolonged QTc duration than (AUC: 0.771 vs. 0.646, p < 0.001) BSBP. Our results suggested that the non-invasive CASP is independently correlated with QTc duration, and CASP can predict prolonged QTc duration more than BSBP.

Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

EPA Science Inventory

This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

Phonological Encoding and Phonetic Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fricke, Melinda Denise

2013-01-01

Studies of connected speech have repeatedly shown that the contextual predictability of a word is related to its phonetic duration; more predictable words tend to be produced with shorter duration, when other factors are controlled for (Aylett & Turk, 2004, 2006; Bell et al., 2003; Bell, Brenier, Gregory, Girand, & Jurafsky, 2009; Gahl,…

Sleep Duration and Waist Circumference in Adults: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sperry, Susan D; Scully, Iiona D; Gramzow, Richard H; Jorgensen, Randall S

2015-08-01

Previous research has demonstrated a relation between insufficient sleep and overall obesity. Waist circumference (WC), a measure of central adiposity, has been demonstrated to improve prediction of health risk. However, recent research on the relation of insufficient sleep duration to WC in adults has yielded inconsistent findings. To assess the magnitude and the consistency of the relation of insufficient sleep and WC. A systematic search of Internet and research databases using Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, and PsycINFO through July 2013 was conducted. All articles in English with adult human subjects that included measurements of WC and sleep duration were reviewed. A random effects meta-analysis and regression analyses were performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were checked. Results are expressed as Pearson correlations (r; 95% confidence interval). Of 1,376 articles, 30 met inclusion criteria and 21 studies (22 samples for a total of 56,259 participants) provided sufficient data for meta-analysis. Results showed a significant negative relation between sleep duration and WC (r = -0.10, P < 0.0001) with significant heterogeneity related to sleep comparison method. Potential moderators of the relation between sleep duration and WC were not significant. Funnel plots showed no indication of publication bias. In addition, a fail-safe N calculation indicated that 418 studies with null effects would be necessary to bring the overall mean effect size to a trivial value of r = -0.005. Internationally, cross-sectional studies demonstrate a significant negative relation between sleep duration and waist circumference, indicating shorter sleep durations covary with central adiposity. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Development of Response Spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations from Empirical Models for Fourier Spectra and Duration of Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, S. S.; Scherbaum, F.; Kuehn, N. M.; Stafford, P.; Edwards, B.

2014-12-01

In a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework, it still remains a challenge to adjust ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for application in different seismological environments. In this context, this study presents a complete framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE easily adjustable to different seismological conditions; and which does not suffer from the technical problems associated with the adjustment in response spectral domain. Essentially, the approach consists of an empirical FAS (Fourier Amplitude Spectrum) model and a duration model for ground motion which are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework to obtain the full response spectral ordinates. Additionally, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the frequency range defined by the data using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards & Faeh, (2013). To that end, an empirical model for a duration, which is tuned to optimize the fit between RVT based and observed response spectral ordinate, at each oscillator frequency is derived. Although, the main motive of the presented approach was to address the adjustability issues of response spectral GMPEs; comparison, of median predicted response spectra with the other regional models indicate that presented approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. Besides that, a significantly lower aleatory variability (σ<0.5 in log units) in comparison to other regional models, at shorter periods brands it to a potentially viable alternative to the classical regression (on response spectral ordinates) based GMPEs for seismic hazard studies in the near future. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

Sleep Duration and Waist Circumference in Adults: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sperry, Susan D.; Scully, Iiona D.; Gramzow, Richard H.; Jorgensen, Randall S.

2015-01-01

Background: Previous research has demonstrated a relation between insufficient sleep and overall obesity. Waist circumference (WC), a measure of central adiposity, has been demonstrated to improve prediction of health risk. However, recent research on the relation of insufficient sleep duration to WC in adults has yielded inconsistent findings. Objectives: To assess the magnitude and the consistency of the relation of insufficient sleep and WC Methods: A systematic search of Internet and research databases using Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, and PsycINFO through July 2013 was conducted. All articles in English with adult human subjects that included measurements of WC and sleep duration were reviewed. A random effects meta-analysis and regression analyses were performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were checked. Results are expressed as Pearson correlations (r; 95% confidence interval). Results: Of 1,376 articles, 30 met inclusion criteria and 21 studies (22 samples for a total of 56,259 participants) provided sufficient data for meta-analysis. Results showed a significant negative relation between sleep duration and WC (r = −0.10, P < 0.0001) with significant heterogeneity related to sleep comparison method. Potential moderators of the relation between sleep duration and WC were not significant. Funnel plots showed no indication of publication bias. In addition, a fail-safe N calculation indicated that 418 studies with null effects would be necessary to bring the overall mean effect size to a trivial value of r = −0.005. Conclusions: Internationally, cross-sectional studies demonstrate a significant negative relation between sleep duration and waist circumference, indicating shorter sleep durations covary with central adiposity. Future research should include prospective studies. Citation: Sperry SD, Scully ID, Gramzow RH, Jorgensen RS. Sleep duration and waist circumference in adults: a meta-analysis. SLEEP 2015;38(8):1269–1276. PMID:25581918

Beyond Access and Exposure: Implications of Sneaky Media Use for Preschoolers' Sleep Behavior.

PubMed

Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

2018-01-09

Greater consumption of and access to screen media are known correlates of unhealthy sleep behavior in preschoolers. What remains unknown, however, is the role a child's media use plays in this association. Parents and guardians of U.S. preschoolers (N = 278, average child age 56 months) provided information about their child's nightly duration of sleep, daily duration of nap, quantity of screen media use, sneaky media use, and the presence of a screen media device in the bedroom. We assessed four media: television, DVD/VCRs, video games, and computer/Internet. Based on rationales of sleep displacement, the forbidden fruit hypothesis, and social cognitive theory, we predicted that increased consumption of and access to media, along with sneaky media use, would predict a shorter duration of nightly sleep and longer duration of daily nap across the four screen media. In correlational analyses, a clear pattern emerged with quantity of media use, screen media in the bedroom, and sneaky media use associated with shorter nightly duration of sleep and longer duration of daily nap. In regression analyses, only weekday evening television viewing and sneaky media use predicted shorter nightly sleep duration; weekend morning and evening DVD use predicted longer naps.

Quantitative computed tomography versus spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer.

PubMed

Ueda, Kazuhiro; Kaneda, Yoshikazu; Sudo, Manabu; Mitsutaka, Jinbo; Li, Tao-Sheng; Suga, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Hamano, Kimikazu

2005-11-01

Emphysema is a well-known risk factor for developing air leak or persistent air leak after pulmonary resection. Although quantitative computed tomography (CT) and spirometry are used to diagnose emphysema, it remains controversial whether these tests are predictive of the duration of postoperative air leak. Sixty-two consecutive patients who were scheduled to undergo major lung resection for cancer were enrolled in this prospective study to define the best predictor of postoperative air leak duration. Preoperative factors analyzed included spirometric variables and area of emphysema (proportion of the low-attenuation area) that was quantified in a three-dimensional CT lung model. Chest tubes were removed the day after disappearance of the air leak, regardless of pleural drainage. Univariate and multivariate proportional hazards analyses were used to determine the influence of preoperative factors on chest tube time (air leak duration). By univariate analysis, site of resection (upper, lower), forced expiratory volume in 1 second, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and area of emphysema (< 1%, 1% to 10%, > 10%) were significant predictors of air leak duration. By multivariate analysis, site of resection and area of emphysema were the best independent determinants of air leak duration. The results were similar for patients with a smoking history (n = 40), but neither forced expiratory volume in 1 second nor predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second were predictive of air leak duration. Quantitative CT is superior to spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer. Quantitative CT may aid in the identification of patients, particularly among those with a smoking history, requiring additional preventive procedures against air leak.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-01-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-02-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Predicted and experienced affective responses to the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

PubMed

Kitchens, Michael B; Corser, Grant C; Gohm, Carol L; VonWaldner, Kristen L; Foreman, Elizabeth L

2010-12-01

People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions. PMID:23285194

Nutrition in space: lessons from the past applied to the future.

PubMed

Lane, H W; Smith, S M; Rice, B L; Bourland, C T

1994-11-01

From the basic impact of nutrient intake on health maintenance to the psychosocial benefits of mealtime, the role of nutrition in space is evident. In this discussion, dietary intake data from three space programs, Apollo, Space Shuttle, and Skylab, are presented. Data examination reveals that energy and fluid intakes are almost always lower than predicted. Nutrition in space has many areas of impact, including provision of required nutrients and maintenance of endocrine, immune, and musculoskeletal systems. Long-duration missions will require quantitation of nutrient requirements for maintenance of health and protection against the effects of microgravity. Psychosocial aspects of nutrition will also be important for more productive missions and crew morale. Realization of the full role of nutrition during spaceflight is critical for the success of extended-duration missions. Research conducted to determine the impact of spaceflight on human physiology and subsequent nutritional requirements will also have direct and indirect applications in Earth-based nutrition research.

Defining Long-Duration Traverses of Lunar Volcanic Complexes with LROC NAC Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stopar, J. D.; Lawrence, S. J.; Joliff, B. L.; Speyerer, E. J.; Robinson, M. S.

2016-01-01

A long-duration lunar rover [e.g., 1] would be ideal for investigating large volcanic complexes like the Marius Hills (MH) (approximately 300 x 330 km), where widely spaced sampling points are needed to explore the full geologic and compositional variability of the region. Over these distances, a rover would encounter varied surface morphologies (ranging from impact craters to rugged lava shields), each of which need to be considered during the rover design phase. Previous rovers including Apollo, Lunokhod, and most recently Yutu, successfully employed pre-mission orbital data for planning (at scales significantly coarser than that of the surface assets). LROC was specifically designed to provide mission-planning observations at scales useful for accurate rover traverse planning (crewed and robotic) [2]. After-the-fact analyses of the planning data can help improve predictions of future rover performance [e.g., 3-5].

Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunn, L. S.; Blake, S.; Jones, M. C.; Rymer, H.

2014-01-01

The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data have been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010. Data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption duration between the years 1600 and 1669 is found to be statistically different from that following it and the forecasting model is run on two datasets of Mt. Etna flank eruption durations: 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect on the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms `likely' and `unlikely' to probabilities of 66 % or more and 33 % or less, respectively, the forecasting model based on the 1600-2010 dataset indicates that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 86 days (± 29 days). This approach can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well-documented volcanoes or for different duration data such as the duration of explosive episodes or the duration of repose periods between eruptions.

Projection of heat waves variation over a warming climate in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Wu, S.; Pan, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves (HW) have adverse impacts on economies, human health, societies and environment, which have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in a warming climate. However, the variations of HW under climate change over China are not clear yet. Using the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 daily maximum temperature and humidity dataset, variation of heat waves in China for 2021-2050 comparing to 1991-2000 as baseline were analyzed. The CMA-HI (Heat Index standardized by China Meteorological Administration) index was used to calculate the frequency and intensity of head waves. This paper classified the HW into three intensity levels including mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW , and defined a heat wave event (HWE) as that CMA-HI are all above or equal to 2.8 and keep at a intensity level more than five consecutive days. Results show that during 2021to 2050, the distribution area, frequency and duration of each intensity level have an increasing trend over China, and those of severe HW will increase mostly. The distribution area of mild, moderate and severe HW will increase 18%, 22%, 35% respectively. Average HWE frequency of each level will concentrate on 0.5-1instead of 0-0.3 in baseline period. Maximum frequency of each intensity can reach to almost 3 times a year. During 1991-2000, the average frequency of mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW kept a downward sequence. But it will change to increase in the future, and the shift occurs during 2031-2040. In addition, only severe HW duration will increase in the future. Its average value will increase from 9days to 13days, and keep a maximum duration of 42days.While the average duration of mild HW and moderate HW just keep almost 6 days and 8 days as usual. Regionally, both the frequency and duration will keep high value in the region of eastern China, central China, southern China and central Xinjiang autonomous region in the future. And only severe HW has a great change in distribution. Under RCP 8.5 climate scenario, China will suffer much more severe heat waves. The result of prediction of heat waves can give scientific basis to climate change risk management and adaptation strategies.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

'It is Time to Prepare the Next patient' Real-Time Prediction of Procedure Duration in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomies.

PubMed

Guédon, Annetje C P; Paalvast, M; Meeuwsen, F C; Tax, D M J; van Dijke, A P; Wauben, L S G L; van der Elst, M; Dankelman, J; van den Dobbelsteen, J J

2016-12-01

Operating Room (OR) scheduling is crucial to allow efficient use of ORs. Currently, the predicted durations of surgical procedures are unreliable and the OR schedulers have to follow the progress of the procedures in order to update the daily planning accordingly. The OR schedulers often acquire the needed information through verbal communication with the OR staff, which causes undesired interruptions of the surgical process. The aim of this study was to develop a system that predicts in real-time the remaining procedure duration and to test this prediction system for reliability and usability in an OR. The prediction system was based on the activation pattern of one single piece of equipment, the electrosurgical device. The prediction system was tested during 21 laparoscopic cholecystectomies, in which the activation of the electrosurgical device was recorded and processed in real-time using pattern recognition methods. The remaining surgical procedure duration was estimated and the optimal timing to prepare the next patient for surgery was communicated to the OR staff. The mean absolute error was smaller for the prediction system (14 min) than for the OR staff (19 min). The OR staff doubted whether the prediction system could take all relevant factors into account but were positive about its potential to shorten waiting times for patients. The prediction system is a promising tool to automatically and objectively predict the remaining procedure duration, and thereby achieve optimal OR scheduling and streamline the patient flow from the nursing department to the OR.

Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

The association between retinal vascular geometry changes and diabetic retinopathy and their role in prediction of progression – an exploratory study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The study describes the relationship of retinal vascular geometry (RVG) to severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR), and its predictive role for subsequent development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Methods The research project comprises of two stages. Firstly, a comparative study of diabetic patients with different grades of DR. (No DR: Minimal non-proliferative DR: Severe non-proliferative DR: PDR) (10:10: 12: 19). Analysed RVG features including vascular widths and branching angles were compared between patient cohorts. A preliminary statistical model for determination of the retinopathy grade of patients, using these features, is presented. Secondly, in a longitudinal predictive study, RVG features were analysed for diabetic patients with progressive DR over 7 years. RVG at baseline was examined to determine risk for subsequent PDR development. Results In the comparative study, increased DR severity was associated with gradual vascular dilatation (p = 0.000), and widening of the bifurcating angle (p = 0.000) with increase in smaller-child-vessel branching angle (p = 0.027). Type 2 diabetes and increased diabetes duration were associated with increased vascular width (p = <0.05 In the predictive study, at baseline, reduced small-child vascular width (OR = 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.92)), was predictive of future progression to PDR. Conclusions The study findings suggest that RVG alterations can act as novel markers indicative of progression of DR severity and establishment of PDR. RVG may also have a potential predictive role in determining the risk of future retinopathy progression. PMID:25001248

Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study

PubMed Central

Herrick, Ariane L; Peytrignet, Sebastien; Lunt, Mark; Pan, Xiaoyan; Hesselstrand, Roger; Mouthon, Luc; Silman, Alan J; Dinsdale, Graham; Brown, Edith; Czirják, László; Distler, Jörg H W; Distler, Oliver; Fligelstone, Kim; Gregory, William J; Ochiel, Rachel; Vonk, Madelon C; Ancuţa, Codrina; Ong, Voon H; Farge, Dominique; Hudson, Marie; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra; Midtvedt, Øyvind; Jobanputra, Paresh; Jordan, Alison C; Stevens, Wendy; Moinzadeh, Pia; Hall, Frances C; Agard, Christian; Anderson, Marina E; Diot, Elisabeth; Madhok, Rajan; Akil, Mohammed; Buch, Maya H; Chung, Lorinda; Damjanov, Nemanja S; Gunawardena, Harsha; Lanyon, Peter; Ahmad, Yasmeen; Chakravarty, Kuntal; Jacobsen, Søren; MacGregor, Alexander J; McHugh, Neil; Müller-Ladner, Ulf; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Becker, Michael; Roddy, Janet; Carreira, Patricia E; Fauchais, Anne Laure; Hachulla, Eric; Hamilton, Jennifer; İnanç, Murat; McLaren, John S; van Laar, Jacob M; Pathare, Sanjay; Proudman, Susanna M; Rudin, Anna; Sahhar, Joanne; Coppere, Brigitte; Serratrice, Christine; Sheeran, Tom; Veale, Douglas J; Grange, Claire; Trad, Georges-Selim; Denton, Christopher P

2018-01-01

Objectives Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. ‘Progressors’ were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). Results 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. Conclusions Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. Trial registration number NCT02339441. PMID:29306872

Europa's small impactor flux and seismic detection predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Daisuke; Teanby, Nicholas A.

2016-10-01

Europa is an attractive target for future lander missions due to its dynamic surface and potentially habitable sub-surface environment. Seismology has the potential to provide powerful new constraints on the internal structure using natural sources such as faults or meteorite impacts. Here we predict how many meteorite impacts are likely to be detected using a single seismic station on Europa to inform future mission planning efforts. To this end, we derive: (1) the current small impactor flux on Europa from Jupiter impact rate observations and models; (2) a crater diameter versus impactor energy scaling relation for icy moons by merging previous experiments and simulations; and (3) scaling relations for seismic signal amplitudes as a function of distance from the impact site for a given crater size, based on analogue explosive data obtained on Earth's ice sheets. Finally, seismic amplitudes are compared to predicted noise levels and seismometer performance to determine detection rates. We predict detection of 0.002-20 small local impacts per year based on P-waves travelling directly through the ice crust. Larger regional and global-scale impact events, detected through mantle-refracted waves, are predicted to be extremely rare (10-8-1 detections per year), so are unlikely to be detected by a short duration mission. Estimated ranges include uncertainties from internal seismic attenuation, impactor flux, and seismic amplitude scaling. Internal attenuation is the most significant unknown and produces extreme uncertainties in the mantle-refracted P-wave amplitudes. Our nominal best-guess attenuation model predicts 0.002-5 local direct P detections and 6 × 10-6-0.2 mantle-refracted detections per year. Given that a plausible Europa landed mission will only last around 30 days, we conclude that impacts should not be relied upon for a seismic exploration of Europa. For future seismic exploration, faulting due to stresses in the rigid outer ice shell is likely to be a much more viable mechanism for probing Europa's interior.

Duration comparison: relative stimulus differences stimulus age, and stimulus predictiveness.

PubMed Central

Stubbs, D A; Dreyfus, L R; Fetterman, J G; Boynton, D M; Locklin, N; Smith, L D

1994-01-01

Under a psychophysical trials procedure, pigeons were presented with a red light of one duration followed by a green light of a second duration. Eight geometrically spaced base durations were paired with one of four shorter and four longer durations as the alternate member of a duration pair, with different pairs randomly intermixed. One choice was reinforced if red had lasted longer than green, and a second choice was reinforced if green had lasted longer. Performance was compared when all the base durations and their pair members were included (entire-range condition) or when only the four longest base durations and their comparison durations (restricted-range condition) were used. Discrimination sensitivity decreased for longer duration pairs under both conditions, supporting a memory-based account. Sensitivity was lower under the restricted-range condition. Under both conditions, a bias to report "green as longer" increased as the second green duration increased. Bias changed as a matching function of the green-duration predictiveness of the correct choice. The results are related to a quantitative model of timing and remembering proposed by Staddon. PMID:8064211

Habitual sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk using the pooled cohort risk equations among US adults.

PubMed

Ford, Earl S

2014-12-02

The association between sleep duration and predicted cardiovascular risk has been poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between self-reported sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk among US adults. Data from 7690 men and nonpregnant women who were aged 40 to 79 years, who were free of self-reported heart disease and stroke, and who participated in a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2012 were analyzed. Sleep duration was self-reported. Predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the pooled cohort equations. Among the included participants, 13.1% reported sleeping ≤5 hours, 24.4% reported sleeping 6 hours, 31.9% reported sleeping 7 hours, 25.2% reported sleeping 8 hours, 4.0% reported sleeping 9 hours, and 1.3% reported sleeping ≥10 hours. After adjustment for covariates, geometric mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was 4.0%, 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.7%, and 3.7% among participants who reported sleeping ≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and ≥10 hours per night, respectively (PWald chi-square<0.001). The age-adjusted percentages of predicted cardiovascular risk ≥20% for the 6 intervals of sleep duration were 14.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, 11.4%, 11.8%, and 16.3% (PWald chi-square=0.022). After maximal adjustment, however, sleep duration was not significantly associated with cardiovascular risk ≥20% (PWald chi-square=0.698). Mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was lowest among adults who reported sleeping 7 hours per night and increased as participants reported sleeping fewer and more hours. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Age of onset of myopia predicts risk of high myopia in later childhood in myopic Singapore children.

PubMed

Chua, Sharon Y L; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Cheung, Yin-Bun; Chia, Audrey; Valenzuela, Robert K; Tan, Donald; Wong, Tien-Yin; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Saw, Seang-Mei

2016-07-01

To investigate the effect of age of myopia onset on the severity of myopia later in life among myopic children. In this prospective study, school children aged 7-9 years from the Singapore Cohort Of the Risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) were followed up till 11 years (n = 928). Age of myopia onset was defined either through questionnaire at baseline (age 7-9 years) or subsequent annual follow-up visits. Age of onset of myopia was a surrogate indicator of duration of myopia progression till age 11 years. Cycloplegic refraction and axial length were measured at every annual eye examination. High myopia was defined as spherical equivalent of ≤-5.0 D. A questionnaire determined the other risk factors. In multivariable regression models, younger age of myopia onset (per year decrease) or longer duration of myopia progression was associated with high myopia (odds ratio (OR) = 2.86; 95% CI: 2.39 to 3.43), more myopic spherical equivalent (regression coefficient (β) = -0.86 D; 95% CI: -0.93 to -0.80) and longer axial length (β = 0.28 mm; 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.32) at aged 11 years, after adjusting for gender, race, school, books per week and parental myopia. In Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analyses, age of myopia onset alone predicted high myopia by 85% (area under the curve = 0.85), while the addition of other factors including gender, race, school, books per week and parental myopia only marginally improved this prediction (area under the curve = 0.87). Age of myopia onset or duration of myopia progression was the most important predictor of high myopia in later childhood in myopic children. Future trials to retard the progression of myopia to high myopia could focus on children with younger age of myopia onset or with longer duration of myopia progression. © 2016 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2016 The College of Optometrists.

Spatio-temporal variation in the incubation duration and sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings: implication for future management.

PubMed

dei Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Santos, Alexsandro S; Soares, Luciano S; Lopez, Gustave G; Godfrey, Matthew H; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Fuentes, Mariana M P B

2014-08-01

Climate change poses a unique threat to species with temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), such as marine turtles, where increases in temperature can result in extreme sex ratio biases. Knowledge of the primary sex ratio of populations with TSD is key for providing a baseline to inform management strategies and to accurately predict how future climate changes may affect turtle populations. However, there is a lack of robust data on offspring sex ratio at appropriate temporal and spatial scales to inform management decisions. To address this, we estimate the primary sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, from incubation duration of 5514 in situ nests from 10 nesting beaches from two regions in Brazil over the last 27 years. A strong female bias was estimated in all beaches, with 96% and 89% average female sex ratios produced in Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). Both inter-annual (BA, 88 to 99%; RN, 75 to 96% female) and inter-beach (BA, 92% to 97%; RN, 81% to 92% female) variability in mean offspring sex ratio was observed. These findings will guide management decisions in Brazil and provide further evidence of highly female-skew sex ratios in hawksbill turtles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How will Mahanarva spectabilis (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) Respond to Global Warming?

PubMed Central

Auad, A. M.; Resende, T. T.; Hott, M. C.; Borges, C.A.V.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the favorable constant temperature range for Mahanarva spectabilis (Distant) (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) development as well as to generate geographic distribution maps of this insect pest for future climate scenarios. M. spectabilis eggs were reared on two host plants (Brachiaria ruziziensis (Germain and Edvard) and Pennisetum purpureum (Schumach)), with individual plants kept at temperatures of 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32°C. Nymphal stage duration, nymphal survival, adult longevity, and egg production were recorded for each temperature*host plant combination. Using the favorable temperature ranges for M. spectabilis development, it was possible to generate geographic distribution. Nymphal survival was highest at 24.4°C, with estimates of 44 and 8% on Pennisetum and Brachiaria, respectively. Nymphal stage duration was greater on Brachiaria than on Pennisetum at 20 and 24°C but equal at 28°C. Egg production was higher on Pennisetum at 24 and 28°C than at 20°C, and adult longevity on Pennisetum was higher at 28°C than at 20°C, whereas adult longevity at 24°C did not differ from that at 20 and 28°C. With these results, it was possible to predict a reduction in M. spectabilis densities in most regions of Brazil in future climate scenarios. PMID:27012869

Control of the annual cycle in birds: endocrine constraints and plasticity in response to ecological variability.

PubMed

Dawson, Alistair

2008-05-12

This paper reviews information from ecological and physiological studies to assess how extrinsic factors can modulate intrinsic physiological processes. The annual cycle of birds is made up of a sequence of life-history stages: breeding, moult and migration. Each stage has evolved to occur at the optimum time and to last for the whole duration of time available. Some species have predictable breeding seasons, others are more flexible and some breed opportunistically in response to unpredictable food availability. Photoperiod is the principal environmental cue used to time each stage, allowing birds to adapt their physiology in advance of predictable environmental changes. Physiological (neuroendocrine and endocrine) plasticity allows non-photoperiodic cues to modulate timing to enable individuals to cope with, and benefit from, short-term environmental variability. Although the timing and duration of the period of full gonadal maturation is principally controlled by photoperiod, non-photoperiodic cues, such as temperature, rainfall or food availability, could potentially modulate the exact time of breeding either by fine-tuning the time of egg-laying within the period of full gonadal maturity or, more fundamentally, by modulating gonadal maturation and/or regression. The timing of gonadal regression affects the time of the start of moult, which in turn may affect the duration of the moult. There are many areas of uncertainty. Future integrated studies are required to assess the scope for flexibility in life-history strategies as this will have a critical bearing on whether birds can adapt sufficiently rapidly to anthropogenic environmental changes, in particular climate change.

Two-year course of depressive and anxiety disorders: results from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA).

PubMed

Penninx, Brenda W J H; Nolen, Willem A; Lamers, Femke; Zitman, Frans G; Smit, Johannes H; Spinhoven, Philip; Cuijpers, Pim; de Jong, Peter J; van Marwijk, Harm W J; van der Meer, Klaas; Verhaak, Peter; Laurant, Miranda G H; de Graaf, Ron; Hoogendijk, Witte J; van der Wee, Nic; Ormel, Johan; van Dyck, Richard; Beekman, Aartjan T F

2011-09-01

Whether course trajectories of depressive and anxiety disorders are different, remains an important question for clinical practice and informs future psychiatric nosology. This longitudinal study compares depressive and anxiety disorders in terms of diagnostic and symptom course trajectories, and examines clinical prognostic factors. Data are from 1209 depressive and/or anxiety patients residing in primary and specialized care settings, participating in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. Diagnostic and Life Chart Interviews provided 2-year course information. Course was more favorable for pure depression (n=267, median episode duration = 6 months, 24.5% chronic) than for pure anxiety (n=487, median duration = 16 months, 41.9% chronic). Worst course was observed in the comorbid depression-anxiety group (n=455, median duration > 24 months, 56.8% chronic). Independent predictors of poor diagnostic and symptom trajectory outcomes were severity and duration of index episode, comorbid depression-anxiety, earlier onset age and older age. With only these factors a reasonable discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.72-0.77) was reached in predicting 2-year prognosis. Depression and anxiety cases concern prevalent - not incident - cases. This, however, reflects the actual patient population in primary and specialized care settings. Their differential course trajectory justifies separate consideration of pure depression, pure anxiety and comorbid anxiety-depression in clinical practice and psychiatric nosology. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

No Associations between Interindividual Differences in Sleep Parameters and Episodic Memory Consolidation.

PubMed

Ackermann, Sandra; Hartmann, Francina; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; de Quervain, Dominique J-F; Rasch, Björn

2015-06-01

Sleep and memory are stable and heritable traits that strongly differ between individuals. Sleep benefits memory consolidation, and the amount of slow wave sleep, sleep spindles, and rapid eye movement sleep have been repeatedly identified as reliable predictors for the amount of declarative and/or emotional memories retrieved after a consolidation period filled with sleep. These studies typically encompass small sample sizes, increasing the probability of overestimating the real association strength. In a large sample we tested whether individual differences in sleep are predictive for individual differences in memory for emotional and neutral pictures. Between-subject design. Cognitive testing took place at the University of Basel, Switzerland. Sleep was recorded at participants' homes, using portable electroencephalograph-recording devices. Nine hundred-twenty-nine healthy young participants (mean age 22.48 ± 3.60 y standard deviation). None. In striking contrast to our expectations as well as numerous previous findings, we did not find any significant correlations between sleep and memory consolidation for pictorial stimuli. Our results indicate that individual differences in sleep are much less predictive for pictorial memory processes than previously assumed and suggest that previous studies using small sample sizes might have overestimated the association strength between sleep stage duration and pictorial memory performance. Future studies need to determine whether intraindividual differences rather than interindividual differences in sleep stage duration might be more predictive for the consolidation of emotional and neutral pictures during sleep. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Trade-off between mating opportunities and parental care: brood desertion by female Kentish plovers.

PubMed

Székely, T; Cuthill, I C

2000-10-22

Why do some parents care for their young whereas others divorce from their mate and abandon their offspring? This decision is governed by the trade-off between the value of the current breeding event and future breeding prospects. In the precocial Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus females frequently, but not always, abandon their broods to be cared for by their mate, and seek new breeding partners within the same season. We have shown previously that females' remating opportunities decline with date in the season, so brood desertion should be particularly favourable for early breeding females. However, the benefits are tempered by the fact that single-parent families have lower survival expectancies than those where the female remains to help the male care for the young. We therefore tested the prediction that increasing the value of the current brood (by brood-size manipulation) should increase the duration of female care early in the season, but that in late breeders, with reduced remating opportunities, desertion and thus the duration of female care should be independent of current brood size. These predictions were fulfilled, indicating that seasonally modulated trade-offs between current brood value and remating opportunities can be important in the desertion decisions of species with flexible patterns of parental care.

Trade-off between mating opportunities and parental care: brood desertion by female Kentish plovers.

PubMed Central

Székely, T; Cuthill, I C

2000-01-01

Why do some parents care for their young whereas others divorce from their mate and abandon their offspring? This decision is governed by the trade-off between the value of the current breeding event and future breeding prospects. In the precocial Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus females frequently, but not always, abandon their broods to be cared for by their mate, and seek new breeding partners within the same season. We have shown previously that females' remating opportunities decline with date in the season, so brood desertion should be particularly favourable for early breeding females. However, the benefits are tempered by the fact that single-parent families have lower survival expectancies than those where the female remains to help the male care for the young. We therefore tested the prediction that increasing the value of the current brood (by brood-size manipulation) should increase the duration of female care early in the season, but that in late breeders, with reduced remating opportunities, desertion and thus the duration of female care should be independent of current brood size. These predictions were fulfilled, indicating that seasonally modulated trade-offs between current brood value and remating opportunities can be important in the desertion decisions of species with flexible patterns of parental care. PMID:11416913

Comparison of QRS Duration and Associated Cardiovascular Events in American Indian Men Versus Women (The Strong Heart Study).

PubMed

Deen, Jason F; Rhoades, Dorothy A; Noonan, Carolyn; Best, Lyle G; Okin, Peter M; Devereux, Richard B; Umans, Jason G

2017-06-01

Electrocardiographic QRS duration at rest is associated with sudden cardiac death and death from coronary heart disease in the general population. However, its relation to cardiovascular events in American Indians, a population with persistently high cardiovascular disease mortality, is unknown. The relation of QRS duration to incident cardiovascular disease during 17.2 years of follow-up was assessed in 1,851 male and female Strong Heart Study participants aged 45 to 74 years without known cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox regression with robust standard error estimates was used to determine the association between quintiles of QRS duration and incident cardiovascular disease in gender-stratified analyses, adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, body mass index, current smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and albuminuria. In women only, QRS duration in the highest quintile (≥105 ms) conferred significantly higher risk of cardiovascular disease than QRS duration in the lowest quintile (64 to 84 ms) (hazard ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.4) likely because of higher risks of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.1) and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.7). Furthermore, when added to the Strong Heart Study Coronary Heart Disease Risk Calculator, QRS duration significantly improved prediction of future coronary heart disease events in women (Net Reclassification Index 0.17, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.47). In conclusion, QRS duration is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease in women in the Strong Heart Study cohort and may have value in estimating risk in populations with similar risk profiles and a high lifetime incidence of cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

PubMed

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting time. We find that our distribution is applicable as long as durations follow a Weibull law for short times and do not have too heavy a tail.

Model predictions of ocular injury from 1315-nm laser light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polhamus, Garrett D.; Zuclich, Joseph A.; Cain, Clarence P.; Thomas, Robert J.; Foltz, Michael

2003-06-01

With the advent of future weapons systems that employ high energy lasers, the 1315 nm wavelength will present a new laser safety hazard to the armed forces. Experiments in non-human primates using this wavelength have demonstrated a range of ocular injuries, including corneal, lenticular and retinal lesions, as a function of pulse duration and spot size at the cornea. To improve our understanding of this phenomena, there is a need for a mathematical model that properly predicts these injuries and their dependence on appropriate exposure parameters. This paper describes the use of a finite difference model of laser thermal injury in the cornea and retina. The model was originally developed for use with shorter wavelength laser irradiation, and as such, requires estimation of several key parameters used in the computations. The predictions from the model are compared to the experimental data, and conclusions are drawn regarding the ability of the model to properly follow the published observations at this wavelength.

The nonlinear dynamics of family problem solving in adolescence: the predictive validity of a peaceful resolution attractor.

PubMed

Dishion, Thomas J; Forgatch, Marion; Van Ryzin, Mark; Winter, Charlotte

2012-07-01

In this study we examined the videotaped family interactions of a community sample of adolescents and their parents. Youths were assessed in early to late adolescence on their levels of antisocial behavior. At age 16-17, youths and their parents were videotaped interacting while completing a variety of tasks, including family problem solving. The interactions were coded and compared for three developmental patterns of antisocial behavior: early onset, persistent; adolescence onset; and typically developing. The mean duration of conflict bouts was the only interaction pattern that discriminated the 3 groups. In the prediction of future antisocial behavior, parent and youth reports of transition entropy and conflict resolution interacted to account for antisocial behavior at age 18-19. Families with low entropy and peaceful resolutions predicted low levels of youth antisocial behavior at age 18-19. These findings suggest the need to study both attractors and repellers to understand family dynamics associated with health and social and emotional development.

The Nonlinear Dynamics of Family Problem Solving in Adolescence: The Predictive Validity of a Peaceful Resolution Attractor

PubMed Central

Dishion, Thomas J.; Forgatch, Marion; Van Ryzin, Mark; Winter, Charlotte

2012-01-01

In this study we examined the videotaped family interactions of a community sample of adolescents and their parents. Youths were assessed in early to late adolescence on their levels of antisocial behavior. At age 16–17, youths and their parents were videotaped interacting while completing a variety of tasks, including family problem solving. The interactions were coded and compared for 3 developmental patterns of antisocial behavior: early onset, persistent; adolescence onset; and typically developing. The mean duration of conflict bouts was the only interaction pattern that discriminated the 3 groups. In the prediction of future antisocial behavior, parent and youth reports of transition entropy and conflict resolution interacted to account for antisocial behavior at age 18–19. Families with low entropy and peaceful resolutions predicted low levels of youth antisocial behavior at age 18–19. These findings suggest the need to study both attractors and repellers to understand family dynamics associated with health and social and emotional development. PMID:22695152

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed Central

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-01-01

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-09-28

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

Sleep duration and RSA suppression as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors

PubMed Central

Cho, Sunghye; Philbrook, Lauren E.; Davis, Elizabeth L.; Buss, Kristin A.

2017-01-01

Although the conceptual interplay among the biological and clinical features of sleep, arousal, and emotion regulation has been noted, little is understood about how indices of sleep duration and parasympathetic reactivity operate jointly to predict adjustment in early childhood. Using a sample of 123 toddlers, the present study examined sleep duration and RSA reactivity as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Parents reported on children’s sleep duration and adjustment. RSA reactivity was assessed via children’s responses to fear-eliciting stimuli and an inhibitory control challenge. Findings demonstrated that greater RSA suppression to both types of tasks in combination with longer sleep duration was concurrently associated with less internalizing. In contrast, greater RSA augmentation to an inhibitory control task in the context of shorter sleep duration predicted more externalizing 1 year later. The significance of duration of toddlers’ sleep as well as the context in which physiological regulatory difficulties occurs is discussed. PMID:27577700

Social ranking effects on tooth-brushing behaviour.

PubMed

Maltby, John; Paterson, Kevin; Day, Liz; Jones, Ceri; Kinnear, Hayley; Buchanan, Heather

2016-05-01

A tooth-brushing social rank hypothesis is tested suggesting tooth-brushing duration is influenced when individuals position their behaviour in a rank when comparing their behaviour with other individuals. Study 1 used a correlation design, Study 2 used a semi-experimental design, and Study 3 used a randomized intervention design to examine the tooth-brushing social rank hypothesis in terms of self-reported attitudes, cognitions, and behaviour towards tooth-brushing duration. Study 1 surveyed participants to examine whether the perceived health benefits of tooth-brushing duration could be predicted from the ranking of each person's tooth-brushing duration. Study 2 tested whether manipulating the rank position of the tooth-brushing duration influenced participant-perceived health benefits of tooth-brushing duration. Study 3 used a longitudinal intervention method to examine whether messages relating to the rank positions of tooth-brushing durations causally influenced the self-report tooth-brushing duration. Study 1 demonstrates that perceptions of the health benefits from tooth-brushing duration are predicted by the perceptions of how that behaviour ranks in comparison to other people's behaviour. Study 2 demonstrates that the perceptions of the health benefits of tooth-brushing duration can be manipulated experimentally by changing the ranked position of a person's tooth-brushing duration. Study 3 experimentally demonstrates the possibility of increasing the length of time for which individuals clean their teeth by focusing on how they rank among their peers in terms of tooth-brushing duration. The effectiveness of interventions using social-ranking methods relative to those that emphasize comparisons made against group averages or normative guidelines are discussed. What is already known on this subject? Individual make judgements based on social rank information. Social rank information has been shown to influence positive health behaviours such as exercise. What does this study add? The health benefits of tooth-brushing are predicted by how tooth-brushing duration ranks within a distribution. Focussing on how teeth-cleaning duration ranks among others produces longer teeth-cleaning durations. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

2016-04-01

According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Kiang, Julie E.

2015-01-01

Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water. Streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. As part of its National Water Census, the U.S. Geological Survey is planning to provide streamflow predictions for ungaged locations. In order to predict streamflow at a useful spatial and temporal resolution throughout the Nation, efficient methods need to be selected. This report examines several methods used for streamflow prediction in ungaged basins to determine the best methods for regional and national implementation. A pilot area in the southeastern United States was selected to apply 19 different streamflow prediction methods and evaluate each method by a wide set of performance metrics. Through these comparisons, two methods emerged as the most generally accurate streamflow prediction methods: the nearest-neighbor implementations of nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NN-QPPQ) and standardizing logarithms of streamflow by monthly means and standard deviations (NN-SMS12L). It was nearly impossible to distinguish between these two methods in terms of performance. Furthermore, neither of these methods requires significantly more parameterization in order to be applied: NN-SMS12L requires 24 regional regressions—12 for monthly means and 12 for monthly standard deviations. NN-QPPQ, in the application described in this study, required 27 regressions of particular quantiles along the flow duration curve. Despite this finding, the results suggest that an optimal streamflow prediction method depends on the intended application. Some methods are stronger overall, while some methods may be better at predicting particular statistics. The methods of analysis presented here reflect a possible framework for continued analysis and comprehensive multiple comparisons of methods of prediction in ungaged basins (PUB). Additional metrics of comparison can easily be incorporated into this type of analysis. By considering such a multifaceted approach, the top-performing models can easily be identified and considered for further research. The top-performing models can then provide a basis for future applications and explorations by scientists, engineers, managers, and practitioners to suit their own needs.

Orbital debris and meteoroids: Results from retrieved spacecraft surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandeville, J. C.

1993-08-01

Near-Earth space contains natural and man-made particles, whose size distribution ranges from submicron sized particles to cm sized objects. This environment causes a grave threat to space missions, mainly for future manned or long duration missions. Several experiments devoted to the study of this environment have been recently retrieved from space. Among them several were located on the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and on the Russian MIR Space Station. Evaluation of hypervelocity impact features gives valuable information on size distribution of small dust particles present in low Earth orbit. Chemical identification of projectile remnants is possible in many instances, thus allowing a discrimination between extraterrestrial particles and man-made orbital debris. A preliminary comparison of flight data with current modeling of meteoroids and space debris shows a fair agreement. However impact of particles identified as space debris on the trailing side of LDEF, not predicted by the models, could be the result of space debris in highly excentric orbits, probably associated with GTO objects.

Does breast-feeding reduce offspring junk food consumption during childhood? Examinations by socio-economic status and race/ethnicity.

PubMed

Jackson, Dylan B; Johnson, Kecia R

2017-06-01

To examine whether breast-feeding duration and socio-economic status (SES) interact to predict junk food consumption among offspring and whether the interaction differs across racial/ethnic groups. Survey research using a longitudinal panel design. Hierarchical linear regression was used to analyse the data. In-home interviews with the child's parents over a 5-year period across the USA. Approximately 10 000 American children from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study: Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). The findings revealed that longer breast-feeding durations correspond to lower levels of junk food consumption, but that this relationship emerges consistently only among low-SES blacks. Efforts to promote breast-feeding among low-SES black women may have the added benefit of reducing their children's junk food intake, and may thereby promote their general health and well-being. Future research should seek to explore the mechanisms by which breast-feeding might benefit the dietary habits of low-SES black children.

Developmental windows of breast cancer risk provide opportunities for targeted chemoprevention

PubMed Central

Martinson, Holly A.; Lyons, Traci R.; Giles, Erin D.; Borges, Virginia F.; Schedin, Pepper

2014-01-01

The magnitude of the breast cancer problem implores researchers to aggressively investigate prevention strategies. However, several barriers currently reduce the feasibility of breast cancer prevention. These barriers include the inability to accurately predict future breast cancer diagnosis at the individual level, the need for improved understanding of when to implement interventions, uncertainty with respect to optimal duration of treatment, and negative side effects associated with currently approved chemoprevention therapies. None-the-less, the unique biology of the mammary gland, with its postnatal development and conditional terminal differentiation, may permit the resolution of many of these barriers. Specifically, lifecycle-specific windows of breast cancer risk have been identified that may be amenable to risk-reducing strategies. Here, we argue for prevention research focused on two of these lifecycle windows of risk: postpartum mammary gland involution and peri-menopause. We provide evidence that these windows are highly amenable to targeted, limited duration treatments. Such approaches could result in the prevention of postpartum and postmenopausal breast cancers, correspondingly. PMID:23664839

Sleep duration predicts behavioral and neural differences in adult speech sound learning.

PubMed

Earle, F Sayako; Landi, Nicole; Myers, Emily B

2017-01-01

Sleep is important for memory consolidation and contributes to the formation of new perceptual categories. This study examined sleep as a source of variability in typical learners' ability to form new speech sound categories. We trained monolingual English speakers to identify a set of non-native speech sounds at 8PM, and assessed their ability to identify and discriminate between these sounds immediately after training, and at 8AM on the following day. We tracked sleep duration overnight, and found that light sleep duration predicted gains in identification performance, while total sleep duration predicted gains in discrimination ability. Participants obtained an average of less than 6h of sleep, pointing to the degree of sleep deprivation as a potential factor. Behavioral measures were associated with ERP indexes of neural sensitivity to the learned contrast. These results demonstrate that the relative success in forming new perceptual categories depends on the duration of post-training sleep. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sleep duration predicts behavioral and neural differences in adult speech sound learning

PubMed Central

Earle, F. Sayako; Landi, Nicole; Myers, Emily B.

2016-01-01

Sleep is important for memory consolidation and contributes to the formation of new perceptual categories. This study examined sleep as a source of variability in typical learners’ ability to form new speech sound categories. We trained monolingual English speakers to identify a set of non-native speech sounds at 8PM, and assessed their ability to identify and discriminate between these sounds immediately after training, and at 8AM on the following day. We tracked sleep duration overnight, and found that light sleep duration predicted gains in identification performance, while total sleep duration predicted gains in discrimination ability. Participants obtained an average of less than 6 hours of sleep, pointing to the degree of sleep deprivation as a potential factor. Behavioral measures were associated with ERP indexes of neural sensitivity to the learned contrast. These results demonstrate that the relative success in forming new perceptual categories depends on the duration of post-training sleep. PMID:27793703

My action lasts longer: Potential link between subjective time and agency during voluntary action.

PubMed

Imaizumi, Shu; Asai, Tomohisa

2017-05-01

Time perception distorts across different phases of bodily movement. During motor execution, sensory feedback matching an internal sensorimotor prediction is perceived to last longer. The sensorimotor prediction also underlies sense of agency. We investigated association between subjective time and agency during voluntary action. Participants performed hand action while watching a video feedback of their hand with various delays to manipulate agency. The perceived duration and agency over the video feedback were judged. Minimal delay of the video feedback resulted in longer perceived duration than the actual duration and stronger agency, while substantial feedback delay resulted in shorter perceived duration and weaker agency. These fluctuations of perceived duration and agency were nullified by the feedback of other's hand instead of their own, but not by inverted feedback from a third-person perspective. Subjective time during action might be associated with agency stemming from sensorimotor prediction, and self-other distinction based on bodily appearance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Duration of Sexual Harassment and Generalized Harassment in the Workplace Over Ten Years: Effects on Deleterious Drinking Outcomes

PubMed Central

McGinley, Meredith; Richman, Judith A.; Rospenda, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

While harassment in the workplace has been linked to deleterious drinking outcomes, researchers have yet to examine the long-term effects of chronic workplace harassment. During a ten year longitudinal mail survey, university employees (N = 2265) were administered measures of sexual harassment, generalized workplace harassment, and problematic drinking. Using growth mixture modeling, two latent classes of workplace harassment emerged: infrequent and chronic. Demographic characteristics (gender, age, and race) predicted the shape of the trajectories and likelihood of class membership. As hypothesized, membership in the chronic harassment classes was linked to future problematic drinking, even after controlling for previous drinking. PMID:21745045

Duration of sexual harassment and generalized harassment in the workplace over ten years: effects on deleterious drinking outcomes.

PubMed

McGinley, Meredith; Richman, Judith A; Rospenda, Kathleen M

2011-01-01

Although harassment in the workplace has been linked to deleterious drinking outcomes, researchers have yet to examine the long-term effects of chronic workplace harassment. During a 10-year longitudinal mail survey, university employees (N = 2,265) were administered measures of sexual harassment, generalized workplace harassment, and problematic drinking. Using growth mixture modeling, two latent classes of workplace harassment emerged: infrequent and chronic. Demographic characteristics (gender, age, and race) predicted the shape of the trajectories and likelihood of class membership. As hypothesized, membership in the chronic harassment classes was linked to future problematic drinking, even after controlling for previous drinking.

Increased duration of dual pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy for genotype 1 hepatitis C post-liver transplantation increases sustained virologic response: a retrospective review.

PubMed

Wells, Malcolm M; Roth, Lee S; Marotta, Paul; Levstik, Mark; Mason, Andrew L; Bain, Vincent G; Chandok, Natasha; Aljudaibi, Bandar M

2013-01-01

In patients with advanced post-transplant hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence, antiviral treatment (AVT) with interferon and ribavirin is indicated to prevent graft failure. The aim of this study was to determine and report Canadian data with respect to the safety, efficacy, and spontaneous virologic response (SVR) predictors of AVT among transplanted patients with HCV recurrence. A retrospective chart review was performed on patients transplanted in London, Ontario and Edmonton, Alberta from 2002 to 2012 who were treated for HCV. Demographic, medical, and treatment information was collected and analyzed. A total of 85 patients with HCV received pegylated interferon with ribavirin post-liver transplantation and 28 of the 65 patients (43%) with genotype 1 achieved SVR. Of the patients having genotype 1 HCV who achieved SVR, there was a significantly lower stage of fibrosis (1.37 ± 0.88 vs. 1.89 ± 0.96; P = 0.03), increased ribavirin dose (total daily dose 1057 ± 230 vs. 856 ± 399 mg; P = 0.02), increased rapid virologic response (RVR) (6/27 vs. 0/31; P = 0.05), increased early virologic response (EVR) (28/28 vs. 18/35; P = 0.006), and longer duration of therapy (54.7 ± 13.4 weeks vs. 40.2 ± 18.7; P = 0.001). A logistic regression model using gender, age, RVR, EVR, anemia, duration of therapy, viral load, years' post-transplant, and type of organ (donation after cardiac death vs. donation after brain death) significantly predicted SVR (P < 0.001), with duration of therapy having a significant odds ratio of 1.078 (P = 0.007). This study identified factors that predict SVR in HCV-positive patients who received dual therapy post-transplantation. Extending therapy from 48 weeks to 72 weeks of dual therapy is associated with increased SVR rates. Future studies examining the role of extended therapy are needed to confirm these findings, since the current study is a retrospective one.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak

2011-01-01

Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

Psychosocial issues in space: future challenges.

PubMed

Sandal, G M

2001-06-01

As the duration of space flights increases and crews become more heterogeneous, psychosocial factors are likely to play an increasingly important role in determining mission success. The operations of the International Space Station and planning of interplanetary missions represent important future challenges for how to select, train and monitor crews. So far, empirical evidence about psychological factors in space is based on simulations and personnel in analog environments (i.e. polar expeditions, submarines). It is apparent that attempts to transfer from these environments to space requires a thorough analysis of the human behavior specific to the fields. Recommendations for research include the effects of multi-nationality on crew interaction, development of tension within crews and between Mission Control, and prediction of critical phases in adaptation over time. Selection of interpersonally compatible crews, pre-mission team training and implementation of tools for self-monitoring of psychological parameters ensure that changes in mission requirements maximize crew performance.

Aerodynamic Design and Computational Analysis of a Spacecraft Cabin Ventilation Fan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedt, Daniel L.

2010-01-01

Quieter working environments for astronauts are needed if future long-duration space exploration missions are to be safe and productive. Ventilation and payload cooling fans are known to be dominant sources of noise, with the International Space Station being a good case in point. To address this issue in a cost-effective way, early attention to fan design, selection, and installation has been recommended. Toward that end, NASA has begun to investigate the potential for small-fan noise reduction through improvements in fan aerodynamic design. Using tools and methodologies similar to those employed by the aircraft engine industry, most notably computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes, the aerodynamic design of a new cabin ventilation fan has been developed, and its aerodynamic performance has been predicted and analyzed. The design, intended to serve as a baseline for future work, is discussed along with selected CFD results

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

PubMed

Semenov, M A; Stratonovitch, P; Alghabari, F; Gooding, M J

2014-05-01

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

The Shortest QRS Duration of an Electrocardiogram Might Be an Optimal Electrocardiographic Predictor for Response to Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy.

PubMed

Chen, Jan-Yow; Lin, Kuo-Hung; Chang, Kuan-Cheng; Chou, Che-Yi

2017-08-03

QRS duration has been associated with the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, the methods for defining QRS duration to predict the outcome of CRT have discrepancies in previous reports. The aim of this study was to determine an optimal measurement of QRS duration to predict the response to CRT.Sixty-one patients who received CRT were analyzed. All patients had class III-IV heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction not more than 35%, and complete left bundle branch block. The shortest, longest, and average QRS durations from the 12 leads of each electrocardiogram (ECG) were measured. The responses to CRT were determined using the changes in echocardiography after 6 months. Thirty-five (57.4%) patients were responders and 26 (42.6%) patients were non-responders. The pre-procedure shortest, average, and longest QRS durations and the QRS shortening (ΔQRS) of the shortest QRS duration were significantly associated with the response to CRT in a univariate logistic regression analysis (P = 0.002, P = 0.03, P = 0.04 and P = 0.04, respectively). Based on the measurement of the area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve, only the pre-procedure shortest QRS duration and the ΔQRS of the shortest QRS duration showed significant discrimination for the response to CRT (P = 0.002 and P = 0.038, respectively). Multivariable logistic regression showed the pre-procedure shortest QRS duration is an independent predictor for the response to CRT.The shortest QRS duration from the 12 leads of the electrocardiogram might be an optimal measurement to predict the response to CRT.

The effect of exposure duration on the subjective discomfort of aircraft cabin noise.

PubMed

Huang, Yu; Jiang, Weikang

2017-01-01

The time dependency for subjective responses to noise has been a controversial question over many years. For durations of up to 10 min, the discomfort produced by three levels of noise (ie 60, 70 and 80 dBA) was investigated in this experimental study to determine the relation of discomfort to the time duration of noise. The rate of increase in discomfort with increasing duration was 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration, whereas it is currently assumed to be 3 dB per doubling of exposure duration. The sound dose level (SDL) was proposed to predict the discomfort caused by noise of long duration. The combination of SDL and vibration dose value (VDV) provided more consistent estimates of the equivalent comfort contours between noise and vibration over durations from 2 to 32 s than the combination of sound exposure level and VDV or that of sound pressure level and r.m.s. acceleration. Practitioner Summary: The discomfort produced by noise of long duration can be well predicted from a new definition of sound dose level, where the discomfort increases at 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration.

Gender identity outcomes in children with disorders/differences of sex development: Predictive factors.

PubMed

Bakula, Dana M; Mullins, Alexandria J; Sharkey, Christina M; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Mullins, Larry L; Wisniewski, Amy B

2017-06-01

Disorders/differences of sex development (DSD) comprise multiple congenital conditions in which chromosomal, gonadal, and/or anatomical sex are discordant. The prediction of future gender identity (i.e., self-identifying as male, female, or other) in children with DSD can be imprecise, and current knowledge about the development of gender identity in people with, and without DSD, is limited. However, sex of rearing is the strongest predictor of gender identity for the majority of individuals with various DSD conditions. When making decisions regarding sex of rearing biological factors (e.g., possession of a Y chromosome, degree and duration of pre- and postnatal androgen exposure, phenotypic presentation of the external genitalia, and fertility potential), social and cultural factors, as well as quality of life should be considered. Information on gender identity outcomes across a range of DSD diagnoses is presented to aid in sex of rearing assignment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of Photoperiod on Hormones, Behavior, and Immune Function

PubMed Central

Walton, James C.; Weil, Zachary M.; Nelson, Randy J.

2011-01-01

Photoperiodism is the ability of plants and animals to measure environmental day length to ascertain time of year. Central to the evolution of photoperiodism in animals is the adaptive distribution of energetically challenging activities across the year to optimize reproductive fitness while balancing the energetic tradeoffs necessary for seasonally- appropriate survival strategies. The ability to accurately predict future events requires endogenous mechanisms to permit physiological anticipation of annual conditions. Day length provides a virtually noise free environmental signal to monitor and accurately predict time of the year. In mammals, melatonin provides the hormonal signal transducing day length. Duration of pineal melatonin is inversely related to day length and its secretion drives enduring changes in many physiological systems, including the HPA, HPG, and brain-gut axes, the autonomic nervous system, and the immune system. Thus, melatonin is the fulcrum mediating redistribution of energetic investment among physiological processes to maximize fitness and survival. PMID:21156187

Self-Reported Mental Health Predicts Acute Respiratory Infection.

PubMed

Maxwell, Lizzie; Barrett, Bruce; Chase, Joseph; Brown, Roger; Ewers, Tola

2015-06-01

Poor mental health conditions, including stress and depression, have been recognized as a risk factor for the development of acute respiratory infection. Very few studies have considered the role of general mental health in acute respiratory infection occurrence. The aim of this analysis is to determine if overall mental health, as assessed by the mental component of the Short Form 12 Health Survey, predicts incidence, duration, or severity of acute respiratory infection. Data utilized for this analysis came from the National Institute of Health-funded Meditation or Exercise for Preventing Acute Respiratory Infection (MEPARI) and MEPARI-2 randomized controlled trials examining the effects of meditation or exercise on acute respiratory infection among adults aged > 30 years in Madison, Wisconsin. A Kendall tau rank correlation compared the Short Form 12 mental component, completed by participants at baseline, with acute respiratory infection incidence, duration, and area-under-the-curve (global) severity, as assessed by the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey. Participants were recruited from Madison, Wis, using advertisements in local media. Short Form 12 mental health scores significantly predicted incidence (P = 0.037) of acute respiratory infection, but not duration (P = 0.077) or severity (P = 0.073). The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) negative emotion measure significantly predicted global severity (P = 0.036), but not incidence (P = 0.081) or duration (P = 0.125). Mindful Attention Awareness Scale scores significantly predicted incidence of acute respiratory infection (P = 0.040), but not duration (P = 0.053) or severity (P = 0.70). The PHQ-9, PSS-10, and PANAS positive measures did not show significant predictive associations with any of the acute respiratory infection outcomes. Self-reported overall mental health, as measured by the mental component of Short Form 12, predicts acute respiratory infection incidence.

Comparison of three scoring systems for risk stratification in elderly patients wıth acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Kalkan, Çağdaş; Soykan, Irfan; Karakaya, Fatih; Tüzün, Ali; Gençtürk, Zeynep Bıyıklı

2017-04-01

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires rapid assessment and dynamic management. Several scoring systems are used to predict mortality and rebleeding in such cases. The aim of the present study was to compare three scoring systems for predicting short-term mortality, rebleeding, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion in elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The present study included 335 elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Pre- and post-endoscopic Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores were calculated. The ability of these scores to predict rebleeding, mortality, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion was determined. Pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic (7.5) Rockall scores were superior to the Glasgow-Blatchford (12.5) score for predicting mortality (P = 0.006 and P = 0.015). Likewise, pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic Rockall scores were superior to the respective Glasgow-Blatchford scores for predicting rebleeding (P = 0.013 and P = 0.03). There was an association between duration of hospitalization and mortality; as the duration of hospitalization increased the mortality rate increased. In all, 94% of patients hospitalized for a mean of 5 days were alive versus 56.1% of those hospitalized for 20 days, and 20.2% of those hospitalized for 40 days. In elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the Rockall score is clinically more useful for predicting mortality and rebleeding than the Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores; however, for predicting duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion, the Glasgow-Blatchford score is superior to the Rockall and AIMS65 scores. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 575-583. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

PubMed

Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

2013-12-01

Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

Intensity and Duration of Negative Emotions: Comparing the Role of Appraisals and Regulation Strategies

PubMed Central

Brans, Karen; Verduyn, Philippe

2014-01-01

Intensity and duration are two central characteristics of an emotional response. Appraisals and regulation strategies are among the most important determinants of these emotion features. However, as intensity and duration are only moderately correlated, appraisals and regulation strategies may be differently related to these characteristics. A systematic empirical study comparing predictors of emotion intensity and duration is missing. The goal of the present study is to fill this gap. Participants were asked to recall recently experienced episodes of anger, fear, disgust, guilt, sadness, and shame. Subsequently, they were asked to answer a number of questions regarding (a) the intensity and duration of these emotions, (b) their appraisal of the emotion-eliciting event, and (c) their use of a wide range of regulation strategies. Emotion intensity was found to be mainly predicted by appraisals whereas emotion duration was equally well predicted by appraisals and regulation strategies. PMID:24670979

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

The (in)dependence of articulation and lexical planning during isolated word production.

PubMed

Buz, Esteban; Jaeger, T Florian

The number of phonological neighbors to a word (PND) can affect its lexical planning and pronunciation. Similar parallel effects on planning and articulation have been observed for other lexical variables, such as a word's contextual predictability. Such parallelism is frequently taken to indicate that effects on articulation are mediated by effects on the time course of lexical planning. We test this mediation assumption for PND and find it unsupported. In a picture naming experiment, we measure speech onset latencies (planning), word durations, and vowel dispersion (articulation). We find that PND predicts both latencies and durations. Further, latencies predict durations. However, the effects of PND and latency on duration are independent: parallel effects do not imply mediation. We discuss the consequences for accounts of lexical planning, articulation, and the link between them. In particular, our results suggest that ease of planning does not explain effects of PND on articulation.

The (in)dependence of articulation and lexical planning during isolated word production

PubMed Central

Buz, Esteban; Jaeger, T. Florian

2016-01-01

The number of phonological neighbors to a word (PND) can affect its lexical planning and pronunciation. Similar parallel effects on planning and articulation have been observed for other lexical variables, such as a word’s contextual predictability. Such parallelism is frequently taken to indicate that effects on articulation are mediated by effects on the time course of lexical planning. We test this mediation assumption for PND and find it unsupported. In a picture naming experiment, we measure speech onset latencies (planning), word durations, and vowel dispersion (articulation). We find that PND predicts both latencies and durations. Further, latencies predict durations. However, the effects of PND and latency on duration are independent: parallel effects do not imply mediation. We discuss the consequences for accounts of lexical planning, articulation, and the link between them. In particular, our results suggest that ease of planning does not explain effects of PND on articulation. PMID:27376094

Sleep duration and RSA suppression as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors.

PubMed

Cho, Sunghye; Philbrook, Lauren E; Davis, Elizabeth L; Buss, Kristin A

2017-01-01

Although the conceptual interplay among the biological and clinical features of sleep, arousal, and emotion regulation has been noted, little is understood about how indices of sleep duration and parasympathetic reactivity operate jointly to predict adjustment in early childhood. Using a sample of 123 toddlers, the present study examined sleep duration and RSA reactivity as predictors of internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Parents reported on children's sleep duration and adjustment. RSA reactivity was assessed via children's responses to fear-eliciting stimuli and an inhibitory control challenge. Findings demonstrated that greater RSA suppression to both types of tasks in combination with longer sleep duration was concurrently associated with less internalizing. In contrast, greater RSA augmentation to an inhibitory control task in the context of shorter sleep duration predicted more externalizing 1 year later. The significance of duration of toddlers' sleep as well as the context in which physiological regulatory difficulties occurs is discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings.

PubMed

Fidell, Sanford; Tabachnick, Barbara; Pearsons, Karl S

2010-01-01

Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft) and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis procedures. The credibility, generalizability, and utility of sleep disturbance predictions are also limited by small and nonrepresentative samples of test participants, and by restricted (airport-specific and relatively short duration) circumstances of exposure. Although expedient relationships may be the best available, their predictions are of only limited utility for policy analysis and regulatory purposes, because they account for very little variance in the association between environmental noise and sleep disturbance, have characteristically shallow slopes, have not been well validated in field settings, are highly context-dependent, and do not squarely address the roles and relative importance of nonacoustic factors in sleep disturbance. Such relationships offer the appearance more than the substance of precision and objectivity. Truly useful, population-level prediction and genuine understanding of noise-induced sleep disturbance will remain beyond reach for the foreseeable future, until the findings of field studies of broader scope and more sophisticated design become available.

Relationship between negative affect and smoking topography in heavy drinking smokers.

PubMed

Green, ReJoyce; Bujarski, Spencer; Roche, Daniel J O; Ray, Lara A

2016-10-01

Heavy drinking smokers represent a sizeable subgroup of smokers for whom nicotine deprivation and alcohol use increases the urge to smoke in the laboratory and predicts lapses during smoking cessation. The manner in which individuals smoke a cigarette (i.e. smoking topography) provides a reliable index of smoking intensity and reinforcement, yet the effects of affect on smoking topography have not been thoroughly examined in heavy drinking smokers. The current study examined how affect and nicotine deprivation predict smoking behavior as participants (N=27) smoked one cigarette using a smoking topography device after 12-h of nicotine abstinence and after a priming dose of alcohol (target BrAC=0.06g/dl). Primary smoking topography measures were puff volume, velocity, duration, and inter-puff interval (IPI). The effect of nicotine deprivation was measured by the Minnesota Nicotine Withdrawal Scale (MNWS) and the Profile of Mood States (POMS). Measures were obtained at baseline (i.e. 12-h of nicotine abstinence and pre-alcohol) and 30-minutes after alcohol administration (i.e. peak BrAC). Results revealed post-priming negative affect significantly moderated the trajectories of puff volume, puff duration and IPI (p's<0.05) over the course of the cigarette, such that those with greater negative affect had flatter slopes for volume and duration and increasingly infrequent puffs. Our results suggest that baseline and post-priming negative affect following nicotine deprivation alters smoking patterns and increases nicotine exposure throughout a single cigarette. Future studies need to examine differential amounts of nicotine deprivation on response to alcohol and smoking in heavy drinking smokers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How will Mahanarva spectabilis (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) Respond to Global Warming?

PubMed

Fonseca, M G; Auad, A M; Resende, T T; Hott, M C; Borges, C A V

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the favorable constant temperature range for Mahanarva spectabilis(Distant) (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) development as well as to generate geographic distribution maps of this insect pest for future climate scenarios. M. spectabilis eggs were reared on two host plants (Brachiaria ruziziensis(Germain and Edvard) and Pennisetum purpureum(Schumach)), with individual plants kept at temperatures of 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32 °C. Nymphal stage duration, nymphal survival, adult longevity, and egg production were recorded for each temperature*host plant combination. Using the favorable temperature ranges for M. spectabilis development, it was possible to generate geographic distribution. Nymphal survival was highest at 24.4 °C, with estimates of 44 and 8% on Pennisetum and Brachiaria, respectively. Nymphal stage duration was greater on Brachiaria than on Pennisetum at 20 and 24 °C but equal at 28 °C. Egg production was higher on Pennisetum at 24 and 28 °C than at 20 °C, and adult longevity on Pennisetum was higher at 28 °C than at 20 °C, whereas adult longevity at 24 °C did not differ from that at 20 and 28 °C. With these results, it was possible to predict a reduction in M. spectabilis densities in most regions of Brazil in future climate scenarios. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Hydrophobicity of silver surfaces with microparticle geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macko, Ján; Oriňaková, Renáta; Oriňak, Andrej; Kovaľ, Karol; Kupková, Miriam; Erdélyi, Branislav; Kostecká, Zuzana; Smith, Roger M.

2016-11-01

The effect of the duration of the current deposition cycle and the number of current pulses on the geometry of silver microstructured surfaces and on the free surface energy, polarizability, hydrophobicity and thus adhesion force of the silver surfaces has been investigated. The changes in surface hydrophobicity were entirely dependent on the size and density of the microparticles on the surface. The results showed that formation of the silver microparticles was related to number of current pulses, while the duration of one current pulse played only a minor effect on the final surface microparticle geometry and thus on the surface tension and hydrophobicity. The conventional geometry of the silver particles has been transformed to the fractal dimension D. The surface hydrophobicity depended predominantly on the length of the dendrites not on their width. The highest silver surface hydrophobicity was observed on a surface prepared by 30 current pulses with a pulse duration of 1 s, the lowest one when deposition was performed by 10 current pulses with a duration of 0.1 s. The partial surface tension coefficients γDS and polarizability kS of the silver surfaces were calculated. Both parameters can be applied in future applications in living cells adhesion prediction and spectral method selection. Silver films with microparticle geometry showed a lower variability in final surface hydrophobicity when compared to nanostructured surfaces. The comparisons could be used to modify surfaces and to modulate human cells and bacterial adhesion on body implants, surgery instruments and clean surfaces.

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Kesler, Dylan C.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Naylor, Luke W.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Humburg, Dale D.; Coluccy, John M.; Soulliere, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning.We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness.Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks.Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area.Synthesis and applications. Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Predicting non-isometric fatigue induced by electrical stimulation pulse trains as a function of pulse duration

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Our previous model of the non-isometric muscle fatigue that occurs during repetitive functional electrical stimulation included models of force, motion, and fatigue and accounted for applied load but not stimulation pulse duration. Our objectives were to: 1) further develop, 2) validate, and 3) present outcome measures for a non-isometric fatigue model that can predict the effect of a range of pulse durations on muscle fatigue. Methods A computer-controlled stimulator sent electrical pulses to electrodes on the thighs of 25 able-bodied human subjects. Isometric and non-isometric non-fatiguing and fatiguing knee torques and/or angles were measured. Pulse duration (170–600 μs) was the independent variable. Measurements were divided into parameter identification and model validation subsets. Results The fatigue model was simplified by removing two of three non-isometric parameters. The third remained a function of other model parameters. Between 66% and 77% of the variability in the angle measurements was explained by the new model. Conclusion Muscle fatigue in response to different stimulation pulse durations can be predicted during non-isometric repetitive contractions. PMID:23374142

Community structure and quality after 10 years in two central Ohio mitigation bank wetlands.

PubMed

Spieles, Douglas J; Coneybeer, Meagan; Horn, Jonathan

2006-11-01

We evaluate two 10-year-old mitigation bank wetlands in central Ohio, one created and one with restored and enhanced components, by analysis of vegetation characteristics and by comparison of the year-10 vegetation and macroinvertebrate communities with reference wetlands. To assess different measures of wetland development, we compare the prevalence of native hydrophytes with an index of floristic quality and we evaluate the predictability of these parameters in year 10, given 5 years of data. Results show that the mitigation wetlands in this study meet vegetation performance criteria of native hydrophyte establishment by year 5 and maintain these characteristics through year 10. Species richness and floristic quality, as well as vegetative similarity with reference wetlands, differ among mitigation wetlands in year 1 and also in their rate of change during the first 10 years. The prevalence of native hydrophytes is reasonably predictable by year 10, but 5 years of monitoring is not sufficient to predict future trends of floristic quality in either the created or restored wetland. By year 10, macroinvertebrate taxa richness does not statistically differ among these wetlands, but mitigation wetlands differ from reference sites by tolerance index and by trophic guild dominance. The created wetland herbivore biomass is significantly smaller than its reference, whereas detritivore biomass is significantly greater in the created wetland and smaller in the restored wetland as compared with respective reference wetlands. These analyses illustrate differences in measures of wetland performance and contrast the monitoring duration necessary for legal compliance with the duration required for development of more complex indicators of ecosystem integrity.

Connecting genes, coexpression modules, and molecular signatures to environmental stress phenotypes in plants

PubMed Central

Weston, David J; Gunter, Lee E; Rogers, Alistair; Wullschleger, Stan D

2008-01-01

Background One of the eminent opportunities afforded by modern genomic technologies is the potential to provide a mechanistic understanding of the processes by which genetic change translates to phenotypic variation and the resultant appearance of distinct physiological traits. Indeed much progress has been made in this area, particularly in biomedicine where functional genomic information can be used to determine the physiological state (e.g., diagnosis) and predict phenotypic outcome (e.g., patient survival). Ecology currently lacks an analogous approach where genomic information can be used to diagnose the presence of a given physiological state (e.g., stress response) and then predict likely phenotypic outcomes (e.g., stress duration and tolerance, fitness). Results Here, we demonstrate that a compendium of genomic signatures can be used to classify the plant abiotic stress phenotype in Arabidopsis according to the architecture of the transcriptome, and then be linked with gene coexpression network analysis to determine the underlying genes governing the phenotypic response. Using this approach, we confirm the existence of known stress responsive pathways and marker genes, report a common abiotic stress responsive transcriptome and relate phenotypic classification to stress duration. Conclusion Linking genomic signatures to gene coexpression analysis provides a unique method of relating an observed plant phenotype to changes in gene expression that underlie that phenotype. Such information is critical to current and future investigations in plant biology and, in particular, to evolutionary ecology, where a mechanistic understanding of adaptive physiological responses to abiotic stress can provide researchers with a tool of great predictive value in understanding species and population level adaptation to climate change. PMID:18248680

A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. Also the forecasts showed on average a good reliability, and the CRPSS helped identifying regions to focus on for future improvements. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a good prospective as an operational system, as it has demonstrated its significant potential to contribute to the reduction of flood-related losses in Africa by providing national and international aid organizations timely with medium-range flood forecast information. However, issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Coastlines of the past: clues for our future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.

2017-12-01

Coastlines are constantly evolving due to the long-term effects of sea-level change and human impacts, as well as in response to high-impact, short duration hazard events such as storms, tsunamis, and earthquakes. The sediments that accumulate in coastal systems such as estuaries, dunes, and beaches archieve the enviornmental record of the past, providing us a baseline with which to predict future coastal hazard magnitude and recurrence intervals. We study this record to understand future hazard potential, as well as to aid restoration efforts. Many coastal systems around the world have been degraded in the last few hundred years by human activity- these regions are important breeding grounds for commercially viable species, natural pollution filters, and barriers against inundation. Efforts to restore coastal systems often rely on data from historical sources to reconstruct past coastal conditions-the geological record can extend the timeframe with which we think about possible restoration points. In addition, studying past coastal response to enviornmental changes can aid the effort to restore systems to a point of sustainability and resilience instead of simply restoring to an arbirtary point in time.

Dose-response patterns for vibration-induced white finger

PubMed Central

Griffin, M; Bovenzi, M; Nelson, C

2003-01-01

Aims: To investigate alternative relations between cumulative exposures to hand-transmitted vibration (taking account of vibration magnitude, lifetime exposure duration, and frequency of vibration) and the development of white finger (Raynaud's phenomenon). Methods: Three previous studies have been combined to provide a group of 1557 users of powered vibratory tools in seven occupational subgroups: stone grinders, stone carvers, quarry drillers, dockyard caulkers, dockyard boilermakers, dockyard painters, and forest workers. The estimated total operating duration in hours was thus obtained for each subject, for each tool, and for all tools combined. From the vibration magnitudes and exposure durations, seven alternative measurements of cumulative exposure were calculated for each subject, using expressions of the form: dose = ∑amiti, where ai is the acceleration magnitude on tool i, ti is the lifetime exposure duration for tool i, and m = 0, 1, 2, or 4. Results: For all seven alternative dose measures, an increase in dose was associated with a significant increase in the occurrence of vibration-induced white finger, after adjustment for age and smoking. However, dose measures with high powers of acceleration (m > 1) faired less well than measures in which the weighted or unweighted acceleration, and lifetime exposure duration, were given equal weight (m = 1). Dose determined solely by the lifetime exposure duration (without consideration of the vibration magnitude) gave better predictions than measures with m greater than unity. All measures of dose calculated from the unweighted acceleration gave better predictions than the equivalent dose measures using acceleration frequency-weighted according to current standards. Conclusions: Since the total duration of exposure does not discriminate between exposures accumulated over the day and those accumulated over years, a linear relation between vibration magnitude and exposure duration seems appropriate for predicting the occurrence of vibration-induced white finger. Poorer predictions were obtained when the currently recommended frequency weighting was employed than when accelerations at all frequencies were given equal weight. Findings suggest that improvements are possible to both the frequency weighting and the time dependency used to predict the development of vibration-induced white finger in current standards. PMID:12499452

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Rath, John; Mills, William; Roy, Sujoy; Thrasher, Bridget; Wang, Weile; Chiang, Felicia; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James

2014-01-01

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study.

PubMed

Herrick, Ariane L; Peytrignet, Sebastien; Lunt, Mark; Pan, Xiaoyan; Hesselstrand, Roger; Mouthon, Luc; Silman, Alan J; Dinsdale, Graham; Brown, Edith; Czirják, László; Distler, Jörg H W; Distler, Oliver; Fligelstone, Kim; Gregory, William J; Ochiel, Rachel; Vonk, Madelon C; Ancuţa, Codrina; Ong, Voon H; Farge, Dominique; Hudson, Marie; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra; Midtvedt, Øyvind; Jobanputra, Paresh; Jordan, Alison C; Stevens, Wendy; Moinzadeh, Pia; Hall, Frances C; Agard, Christian; Anderson, Marina E; Diot, Elisabeth; Madhok, Rajan; Akil, Mohammed; Buch, Maya H; Chung, Lorinda; Damjanov, Nemanja S; Gunawardena, Harsha; Lanyon, Peter; Ahmad, Yasmeen; Chakravarty, Kuntal; Jacobsen, Søren; MacGregor, Alexander J; McHugh, Neil; Müller-Ladner, Ulf; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Becker, Michael; Roddy, Janet; Carreira, Patricia E; Fauchais, Anne Laure; Hachulla, Eric; Hamilton, Jennifer; İnanç, Murat; McLaren, John S; van Laar, Jacob M; Pathare, Sanjay; Proudman, Susanna M; Rudin, Anna; Sahhar, Joanne; Coppere, Brigitte; Serratrice, Christine; Sheeran, Tom; Veale, Douglas J; Grange, Claire; Trad, Georges-Selim; Denton, Christopher P

2018-04-01

Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. 'Progressors' were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. NCT02339441. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Modeling procedure and surgical times for current procedural terminology-anesthesia-surgeon combinations and evaluation in terms of case-duration prediction and operating room efficiency: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Stepaniak, Pieter S; Heij, Christiaan; Mannaerts, Guido H H; de Quelerij, Marcel; de Vries, Guus

2009-10-01

Gains in operating room (OR) scheduling may be obtained by using accurate statistical models to predict surgical and procedure times. The 3 main contributions of this article are the following: (i) the validation of Strum's results on the statistical distribution of case durations, including surgeon effects, using OR databases of 2 European hospitals, (ii) the use of expert prior expectations to predict durations of rarely observed cases, and (iii) the application of the proposed methods to predict case durations, with an analysis of the resulting increase in OR efficiency. We retrospectively reviewed all recorded surgical cases of 2 large European teaching hospitals from 2005 to 2008, involving 85,312 cases and 92,099 h in total. Surgical times tended to be skewed and bounded by some minimally required time. We compared the fit of the normal distribution with that of 2- and 3-parameter lognormal distributions for case durations of a range of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT)-anesthesia combinations, including possible surgeon effects. For cases with very few observations, we investigated whether supplementing the data information with surgeons' prior guesses helps to obtain better duration estimates. Finally, we used best fitting duration distributions to simulate the potential efficiency gains in OR scheduling. The 3-parameter lognormal distribution provides the best results for the case durations of CPT-anesthesia (surgeon) combinations, with an acceptable fit for almost 90% of the CPTs when segmented by the factor surgeon. The fit is best for surgical times and somewhat less for total procedure times. Surgeons' prior guesses are helpful for OR management to improve duration estimates of CPTs with very few (<10) observations. Compared with the standard way of case scheduling using the mean of the 3-parameter lognormal distribution for case scheduling reduces the mean overreserved OR time per case up to 11.9 (11.8-12.0) min (55.6%) and the mean underreserved OR time per case up to 16.7 (16.5-16.8) min (53.1%). When scheduling cases using the 4-parameter lognormal model the mean overutilized OR time is up to 20.0 (19.7-20.3) min per OR per day lower than for the standard method and 11.6 (11.3-12.0) min per OR per day lower as compared with the biased corrected mean. OR case scheduling can be improved by using the 3-parameter lognormal model with surgeon effects and by using surgeons' prior guesses for rarely observed CPTs. Using the 3-parameter lognormal model for case-duration prediction and scheduling significantly reduces both the prediction error and OR inefficiency.

Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

PubMed

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

2016-09-01

During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

Patients with Mild Alzheimer's Disease Fail When Using Their Working Memory: Evidence from the Eye Tracking Technique.

PubMed

Fernández, Gerardo; Manes, Facundo; Politi, Luis E; Orozco, David; Schumacher, Marcela; Castro, Liliana; Agamennoni, Osvaldo; Rotstein, Nora P

2016-01-01

Patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) develop progressive language, visuoperceptual, attentional, and oculomotor changes that can have an impact on their reading comprehension. However, few studies have examined reading behavior in AD, and none have examined the contribution of predictive cueing in reading performance. For this purpose we analyzed the eye movement behavior of 35 healthy readers (Controls) and 35 patients with probable AD during reading of regular and high-predictable sentences. The cloze predictability of words N - 1, and N + 1 exerted an influence on the reader's gaze duration. The predictabilities of preceding words in high-predictable sentences served as task-appropriate cues that were used by Control readers. In contrast, these effects were not present in AD patients. In Controls, changes in predictability significantly affected fixation duration along the sentence; noteworthy, these changes did not affect fixation durations in AD patients. Hence, only in healthy readers did predictability of upcoming words influence fixation durations via memory retrieval. Our results suggest that Controls used stored information of familiar texts for enhancing their reading performance and imply that contextual-word predictability, whose processing is proposed to require memory retrieval, only affected reading behavior in healthy subjects. In AD patients, this loss reveals impairments in brain areas such as those corresponding to working memory and memory retrieval. These findings might be relevant for expanding the options for the early detection and monitoring in the early stages of AD. Furthermore, evaluation of eye movements during reading could provide a new tool for measuring drug impact on patients' behavior.

A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

EPA Science Inventory

A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

Channeling of multikilojoule high-intensity laser beams in an inhomogeneous plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivancic, S.; Haberberger, D.; Habara, H.

Channeling experiments were performed that demonstrate the transport of high-intensity (>10¹⁸ W/cm²), multikilojoule laser light through a millimeter-sized, inhomogeneous (~300-μm density scale length) laser produced plasma up to overcritical density, which is an important step forward for the fast-ignition concept. The background plasma density and the density depression inside the channel were characterized with a novel optical probe system. The channel progression velocity was measured, which agrees well with theoretical predictions based on large scale particle-in-cell simulations, confirming scaling laws for the required channeling laser energy and laser pulse duration, which are important parameters for future integrated fast-ignition channeling experiments.

Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Tildesley, Michael J; Ryan, Sadie J

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.

Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Ryan, Sadie J.

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock. PMID:23133352

Sensor-derived physical activity parameters can predict future falls in people with dementia

PubMed Central

Schwenk, Michael; Hauer, Klaus; Zieschang, Tania; Englert, Stefan; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for simple clinical tools that can objectively assess fall risk in people with dementia. Wearable sensors seem to have potential for fall prediction, however, there has been limited work performed in this important area. Objective To explore the validity of sensor-derived physical activity (PA) parameters for predicting future falls in people with dementia. To compare sensor-based fall risk assessment with conventional fall risk measures. Methods A cohort study of people with confirmed dementia discharged from a geriatric rehabilitation ward. PA was quantified using 24-hour motion-sensor monitoring at the beginning of the study. PA parameters (percentage of walking, standing, sitting, lying; duration of single walking, standing, and sitting bouts) were extracted using specific algorithms. Conventional assessment included performance-based tests (Timed-up-and-go test, Performance-Oriented-Mobility-Assessment, 5-chair stand) and questionnaires (cognition, ADL-status, fear of falling, depression, previous faller). Outcome measures were fallers (at least one fall in the 3-month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. Results Seventy-seven people were included in the study (age 81.8 ± 6.3; community dwelling 88%, institutionalized 12%). Surprisingly, fallers and non-fallers did not differ on any conventional assessment (p= 0.069–0.991), except for ‘previous faller’ (p= 0.006). Interestingly, several PA parameters discriminated between groups. The ‘walking bouts average duration’, ‘longest walking bout duration’ and ‘walking bouts duration variability’ were lower in fallers, compared to non-fallers (p= 0.008–0.027). The ‘standing bouts average duration’ was higher in fallers (p= 0.050). Two variables, ‘walking bouts average duration’ [odds ratio (OR) 0.79, p= 0.012] and ‘previous faller’ [OR 4.44, p= 0.007] were identified as independent predictors for falls. The OR for a ‘walking bouts average duration’ of less than 15 seconds for predicting fallers was 6.30 (p= 0.020). Combining ‘walking bouts average duration’ and ‘previous faller’ improved fall prediction [OR 7.71, p< 0.001, sensitivity/specificity 72%/76%]. Discussion Results demonstrate that sensor-derived PA parameters are independent predictors of fall risk and may have higher diagnostic accuracy in persons with dementia compared to conventional fall risk measures. Our findings highlight the potential of telemonitoring technology for estimating fall risk. Results should be confirmed in a larger study and by measuring PA over a longer time period. PMID:25171300

Predicting the duration of sickness absence for patients with common mental disorders in occupational health care.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Verbeek, Jos H A M; de Boer, Angela G E M; Blonk, Roland W B; van Dijk, Frank J H

2006-02-01

This study attempted to determine the factors that best predict the duration of absence from work among employees with common mental disorders. A cohort of 188 employees, of whom 102 were teachers, on sick leave with common mental disorders was followed for 1 year. Only information potentially available to the occupational physician during a first consultation was included in the predictive model. The predictive power of the variables was tested using Cox's regression analysis with a stepwise backward selection procedure. The hazard ratios (HR) from the final model were used to deduce a simple prediction rule. The resulting prognostic scores were then used to predict the probability of not returning to work after 3, 6, and 12 months. Calculating the area under the curve from the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve tested the discriminative ability of the prediction rule. The final Cox's regression model produced the following four predictors of a longer time until return to work: age older than 50 years [HR 0.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.3-0.8], expectation of duration absence longer than 3 months (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), higher educational level (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), and diagnosis depression or anxiety disorder (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4-0.9). The resulting prognostic score yielded areas under the curves ranging from 0.68 to 0.73, which represent acceptable discrimination of the rule. A prediction rule based on four simple variables can be used by occupational physicians to identify unfavorable cases and to predict the duration of sickness absence.

A subjective evaluation of synthesized STOL airplane noises

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, C. A., Jr.

1973-01-01

A magnitude-estimation experiment was conducted to evaluate the subjective annoyance of the noise generated by possible future turbofan STOL aircraft as compared to that of several current CTOL aircraft. In addition, some of the units used to scale the magnitude of aircraft noise were evaluated with respect to their applicability to STOL noise. Twenty test subjects rated their annoyance to a total of 119 noises over a range of 75 PNdb to 105 PNdb. Their subjective ratings were compared with acoustical analysis of the noises in terms of 28 rating scale units. The synthesized STOL noises of this experiment were found to be slightly more annoying than the conventional CTOL noises at equal levels of PNL and EPNL. Over the range of levels investigated the scaling units, with a few exceptions, were capable of predicting the points of equal annoyance for all of the noises with plus or minus 3 dB. The inclusion of duration corrections, in general, improved the predictive capabilities of the various scaling units; however, tone corrections reduced their predictive capabilities.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Predictive models to determine imagery strategies employed by children to judge hand laterality.

PubMed

Spruijt, Steffie; Jongsma, Marijtje L A; van der Kamp, John; Steenbergen, Bert

2015-01-01

A commonly used paradigm to study motor imagery is the hand laterality judgment task. The present study aimed to determine which strategies young children employ to successfully perform this task. Children of 5 to 8 years old (N = 92) judged laterality of back and palm view hand pictures in different rotation angles. Response accuracy and response duration were registered. Response durations of the trials with a correct judgment were fitted to a-priori defined predictive sinusoid models, representing different strategies to successfully perform the hand laterality judgment task. The first model predicted systematic changes in response duration as a function of rotation angle of the displayed hand. The second model predicted that response durations are affected by biomechanical constraints of hand rotation. If observed data could be best described by the first model, this would argue for a mental imagery strategy that does not involve motor processes to solve the task. The second model reflects a motor imagery strategy to solve the task. In line with previous research, we showed an age-related increase in response accuracy and decrease in response duration in children. Observed data for both back and palm view showed that motor imagery strategies were used to perform hand laterality judgments, but that not all the children use these strategies (appropriately) at all times. A direct comparison of response duration patterns across age sheds new light on age-related differences in the strategies employed to solve the task. Importantly, the employment of the motor imagery strategy for successful task performance did not change with age.

Neurocognition and community outcome in schizophrenia: long-term predictive validity.

PubMed

Fujii, Daryl E; Wylie, A Michael

2003-02-01

The present study examined the predictive validity of neuropsychological measures to functional outcome in 26 schizophrenic patients 15-plus year post-testing. Outcome measures included score on the Resource Associated Functional Level Scale (RAFLS), number of state hospital admissions, and total duration of state hospital inpatient stay. Results of several stepwise multiple regressions revealed that verbal memory significantly predicted RAFLS score, accounting for nearly half of the variance. Trails B significantly predicted duration of state hospital inpatient status. Discussion focused on the utility of these measures for clinicians and system planners. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

The impact of female reproductive function on outcomes after traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Ripley, David L; Harrison-Felix, Cindy; Sendroy-Terrill, Melissa; Cusick, Christopher P; Dannels-McClure, Amy; Morey, Clare

2008-06-01

To determine the impact of traumatic brain injury (TBI) on female menstrual and reproductive functioning and to examine the relationships between severity of injury, duration of amenorrhea, and TBI outcomes. Retrospective cohort survey. Telephone interview. Women (N=30; age range, 18-45y), between 1 and 3 years postinjury, who had completed inpatient rehabilitation for TBI. Not applicable. Data collected included menstrual and reproductive functioning pre- and postinjury, demographic, and injury characteristics. Outcome measures included the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E), the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory-4 (MPAI-4), and the Medical Outcome Study 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey, Version 2 (SF-12v2). The median duration of amenorrhea was 61 days (range, 20-344d). Many subjects' menstrual function changed after TBI, reporting a significant increase in skipped menses postinjury (P<.001) and a trend toward more painful menses (P=.061). More severe TBI, as measured by the duration of posttraumatic amnesia, was significantly predictive of a longer duration of amenorrhea (P=.004). Subjects with a shorter duration of amenorrhea scored significantly better on the SF-12 physical component subscale (P=.004), the GOS-E (P=.05), and the MPAI-4 participation subscale (P=.05) after controlling for age, injury severity, and time postinjury. The severity of TBI was predictive of duration of amenorrhea and a shorter duration of amenorrhea was predictive of better ratings of global outcome, community participation, and health-related quality of life postinjury.

Associated Information Increases Subjective Perception of Duration.

PubMed

Schweitzer, Richard; Trapp, Sabrina; Bar, Moshe

2017-08-01

Our sense of time is prone to various biases. For instance, one factor that can dilate an event's perceived duration is the violation of predictions; when a series of repeated stimuli is interrupted by an unpredictable oddball. On the other hand, when the probability of a repetition itself is manipulated, predictable conditions can also increase estimated duration. This suggests that manipulations of expectations have different or even opposing effects on time perception. In previous studies, expectations were generated because stimuli were repeated or because the likelihood of a sequence or a repetition was varied. In the natural environment, however, expectations are often built via associative processes, for example, the context of a kitchen promotes the expectation of plates, appliances, and other associated objects. Here, we manipulated such association-based expectations by using oddballs that were either contextually associated or nonassociated with the standard items. We find that duration was more strongly overestimated for contextually associated oddballs. We reason that top-down attention is biased toward associated information, and thereby dilates subjective duration for associated oddballs. Based on this finding, we propose an interplay between top-down attention and predictive processing in the perception of time.

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

2012-01-01

Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:29470510

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Gao, Tanguang; Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases.

PubMed

Park, Myoung Su; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

2018-01-01

Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (P<0.01), vibriosis (P<0.05), and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection (P<0.01). The combined effects of snowfall, wind speed, duration of sunshine, and cloudiness were not significant for these 3 FBD. Other FBD, including campylobacteriosis, were not significantly associated with any combination of climatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) List of Near-Earth Asteroids: Identifying Potential Targets for Future Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abell, Paul; Barbee, B. W.; Mink, R. G.; Adamo, D. R.; Alberding, C. M.; Mazanek, D. D.; Johnson, L. N.; Yeomans, D. K.; Chodas, P. W.; Chamberlin, A. B.; Benner, L. A. M.; Drake, B. G.; Friedensen, V. P.

2012-10-01

Introduction: Much attention has recently been focused on human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Detailed planning for deep space exploration and identification of potential NEA targets for human space flight requires selecting objects from the growing list of known NEAs. NASA therefore initiated the Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Target Study (NHATS), which uses dynamical trajectory performance constraints to identify potentially accessible NEAs. Accessibility Criteria: Future NASA human space flight capability is being defined while the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System are under development. Velocity change and mission duration are two of the most critical factors in any human spaceflight endeavor, so the most accessible NEAs tend to be those with orbits similar to Earth’s. To be classified as NHATS-compliant, a NEA must offer at least one round-trip trajectory solution satisfying purposely inclusive constraints, including total mission change in velocity ≤ 12 km/s, mission duration ≤ 450 days (with at least 8 days at the NEA), Earth departure between Jan 1, 2015 and Dec 31, 2040, Earth departure C3 ≤ 60 km2/s2, and Earth return atmospheric entry speed ≤ 12 km/s. Monitoring and Updates: The NHATS list of potentially accessible targets is continuously updated as NEAs are discovered and orbit solutions for known NEAs are improved. The current list of accessible NEAs identified as potentially viable for future human exploration under the NHATS criteria is available to the international community via a website maintained by NASA’s NEO Program Office (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/nhats/). This website also lists predicted optical and radar observing opportunities for each NHATS-compliant NEA to facilitate acquisition of follow-up observations. Conclusions: This list of NEAs will be useful for analyzing robotic mission opportunities, identifying optimal round trip human space flight trajectories, and highlighting attractive objects of interest for future ground-based observation opportunities.

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI and PNI) for the 1960-1990 period. Then, to proof the capturing capacity of the RegCM3, these results for the reference period were compared with SPI and PNI values calculated using observed climatic data. The validated climate model was used for performing climatic data for the future 30-year period, and using the projected climate data, the SPI and PNI values were computed for the future conditions, which indicates the drought events within future 30- year period. Furthermore, to determine the likely changes between reference and future periods, the projected future rainfall series was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI and PNI calculations. Finally, the maps were drawn to determine the spatial changes of droughts. RegCM3 model could capture the climatic data and also the drought indices well. The study results showed that drought conditions are diverse in the country, and also increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. At regional scale, the Eastern part of Marmara, Black Sea Region and northern and eastern parts of the East Anatolia Regions are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions of the country will also confront with more frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Both indices SPI and PNI yielded similar results for the reference as well as future period. Most of the rain-fed and irrigated areas as well as the major share of the surface water resources are located in the drought-vulnerable regions of the country. Other water user sectors including urban, industry and touristic places will also be affected from the worsened conditions. Thus, increasing frequency, severity and prolonged duration of drought events may have significant consequences for food production and socio-economic conditions in Turkey.

An overview of NASA ISS human engineering and habitability: past, present, and future.

PubMed

Fitts, D; Architecture, B

2000-09-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is the first major NASA project to provide human engineering an equal system engineering an equal system engineering status to other disciplines. The incorporation and verification of hundreds of human engineering requirements applied across-the-board to the ISS has provided for a notably more habitable environment to support long duration spaceflight missions than might otherwise have been the case. As the ISS begins to be inhabited and become operational, much work remains in monitoring the effectiveness of the Station's built environment in supporting the range of activities required of a long-duration vehicle. With international partner participation, NASA's ISS Operational Habitability Assessment intends to carry human engineering and habitability considerations into the next phase of the ISS Program with constant attention to opportunities for cost-effective improvements that need to be and can be made to the on-orbit facility. Too, during its operations the ISS must be effectively used as an on-orbit laboratory to promote and expand human engineering/habitability awareness and knowledge to support the international space faring community with the data needed to develop future space vehicles for long-duration missions. As future space mission duration increases, the rise in importance of habitation issues make it imperative that lessons are captured from the experience of human engineering's incorporation into the ISS Program and applied to future NASA programmatic processes.

Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, D. R.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Coon, E. T.; Wilson, C. J.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Rowland, J. C.

2016-02-01

The effects of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The null-space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty (due to soil property (parametric) uncertainty) and the inter-annual climate variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to measured borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant predictive uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Inter-annual climate variability in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume- and time-integrated Stefan number decreases significantly, indicating a shift in subsurface energy utilization in the future climate (latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction). Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we quantify the relative magnitude of soil property uncertainty to another source of permafrost uncertainty, structural climate model uncertainty. We show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.

Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suning; Chui, Ting Fong May

2018-06-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays an important role in stream ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on the factors influencing the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can become transient during a storm. This study investigates the impacts of different rainfall patterns (varying in intensity and duration) on the HZ under transient conditions. A two-dimensional numerical model of a 10-m long and 2-m deep domain is developed, in which the streambed consists of a series of dunes. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively solved for groundwater and surface water, and velocity and pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed surface). To compare the results under different transient conditions, this study proposes two indicators, i.e., the influential time (IT, the time required for the HZ to return to its initial state once it starts to change) and the influential depth (ID, the maximum increment in the HZ depth). To detect the extent to which the HZ undergoes significant spatial changes, moving split-window and inflection point tests are conducted. The results indicate that rainfall intensity (RI) and rainfall duration (RD) both display logarithmic relationships with the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of the RI and RD. Moreover, the distributions of the IT and ID as a function of the RI and RD are mapped using the surface spline and kriging interpolation methods to facilitate future prediction of the IT and ID. In addition, it is observed that the IT has a linear negative correlation with the groundwater response while the ID is not affected by different groundwater responses. All of the derived relationships can be used to predict the impacts of a future rainfall event on the HZ.

External Long-Duration Materials Instrument Research Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhardt, J. P.; Heath, K.

2018-02-01

The External Long-duration Materials and Instrument Research Observatory (ELMIRO) is a commercial facility that will allow for continuous and repeatable external testing on the Deep Space Gateway of materials, electronics/instruments for future deep space spacecraft.

33 CFR 25.117 - Proof of amount claimed for personal injury or death.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Duration of time injuries prevented or limited employment, (4) Past, present, and future limitations on employment, (5) Duration and extent of pain and suffering and of any disability or physical disfigurement, (6...

Breastfeeding Duration Predicts Greater Maternal Sensitivity over the Next Decade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Jennifer M.; Schofield, Thomas J.; Papp, Lauren M.

2018-01-01

The current study represents the first longitudinal investigation of the potential effects of breastfeeding duration on maternal sensitivity over the following decade. This study also examined whether infant attachment security at 24 months would mediate longitudinal relations between breastfeeding duration and changes in maternal sensitivity over…

Using mean duration and variation of procedure times to plan a list of surgical operations to fit into the scheduled list time.

PubMed

Pandit, Jaideep J; Tavare, Aniket

2011-07-01

It is important that a surgical list is planned to utilise as much of the scheduled time as possible while not over-running, because this can lead to cancellation of operations. We wished to assess whether, theoretically, the known duration of individual operations could be used quantitatively to predict the likely duration of the operating list. In a university hospital setting, we first assessed the extent to which the current ad-hoc method of operating list planning was able to match the scheduled operating list times for 153 consecutive historical lists. Using receiver operating curve analysis, we assessed the ability of an alternative method to predict operating list duration for the same operating lists. This method uses a simple formula: the sum of individual operation times and a pooled standard deviation of these times. We used the operating list duration estimated from this formula to generate a probability that the operating list would finish within its scheduled time. Finally, we applied the simple formula prospectively to 150 operating lists, 'shadowing' the current ad-hoc method, to confirm the predictive ability of the formula. The ad-hoc method was very poor at planning: 50% of historical operating lists were under-booked and 37% over-booked. In contrast, the simple formula predicted the correct outcome (under-run or over-run) for 76% of these operating lists. The calculated probability that a planned series of operations will over-run or under-run was found useful in developing an algorithm to adjust the planned cases optimally. In the prospective series, 65% of operating lists were over-booked and 10% were under-booked. The formula predicted the correct outcome for 84% of operating lists. A simple quantitative method of estimating operating list duration for a series of operations leads to an algorithm (readily created on an Excel spreadsheet, http://links.lww.com/EJA/A19) that can potentially improve operating list planning.

Understanding the effects of predictability, duration, and spatial pattern of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages in two contrasting intermittent streams

PubMed Central

von Schiller, Daniel; Barberá, Gonzalo G.; Díaz, Angela M.; Arce, Maria Isabel; del Campo, Rubén; Tockner, Klement

2018-01-01

In the present study, we examined the effects of different drying conditions on the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages. We approached this objective by comparing invertebrate assemblages in perennial and intermittent sites along two intermittent Mediterranean streams with contrasting predictability, duration, and spatial patterns of drying: Fuirosos (high predictability, short duration, downstream drying pattern) and Rogativa (low predictability, long duration, patchy drying pattern). Specifically, we quantified the contribution of individual taxa to those differences, the degree of nestedness, and shifts in the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages along flow intermittence gradients. We observed greater effects of drying on the benthic invertebrate composition in Fuirosos than in Rogativa, resulting in a higher dissimilarity of assemblages between perennial and intermittent sites, as well as a lower degree of nestedness. Furthermore, a higher number of biotic metrics related to richness, abundance and biological traits were significantly different between perennial and intermittent sites in Fuirosos, despite a shorter dry period compared to Rogativa. At the same time, slightly different responses were detected during post-drying (autumn) than pre-drying (spring) conditions in this stream. In Rogativa, shifts in benthic invertebrate assemblages along increasing gradients of flow intermittence were found for three metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) and Odonata, Coleoptera and Heteroptera (OCH) abundances and aerial active dispersal. Furthermore, we demonstrated that combined gradients of dry period duration and distance to nearest perennial reach can generate complex, and different, responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages, depending on the flow intermittence metric. Our study advances the notion that special attention should be paid to the predictability, duration and spatial patterns of drying in intermittent streams in order to disentangle the effects of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages, in particular in areas subject to high spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in drying conditions. PMID:29590140

Peak oxygen uptake, ventilatory efficiency and QRS-duration predict event free survival in patients late after surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot.

PubMed

Müller, Jan; Hager, Alfred; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Derrick, Graham; Buys, Roselien; Dubowy, Karl-Otto; Takken, Tim; Orwat, Stefan; Inuzuka, Ryo; Vanhees, Luc; Gatzoulis, Michael; Giardini, Alessandro

2015-10-01

Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) have an increased long-term risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Risk stratification in this population is difficult. Initial evidence suggests that cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) may be helpful to risk-stratify patients with repaired ToF. We studied 875 patients after surgical repair for ToF (358 females, age 25.5 ± 11.7 year, range 7-75 years) who underwent CPET between 1999 and 2009. During a mean follow-up of 4.1 ± 2.6 years after CPET, 30 patients (3.4%) died or had sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). 225 patients (25.7%) had other cardiac related events (emergency admission, surgery, or catheter interventions). On multivariable Cox regression-analysis, %predicted peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2 %) (p=0.001), resting QRS duration (p=0.030) and age (p<0.001) emerged as independent predictors of mortality or sustained VT. Patients with a peak V˙O2 ≤ 65% of predicted and a resting QRS duration ≥ 170 ms had a 11.4-fold risk of death or sustained VT. Ventilatory efficiency expressed as V˙E/V˙CO2 slope (p<0.001), peak V˙O2 % (p=.001), QRS duration (p=.001) and age (p=0.046) independently predicted event free survival. V˙E/V˙CO2 slope ≥ 31.0, peak V˙O2 % ≤ 65% and QRS duration ≥ 170 ms were the cut-off points with best sensitivity and specificity to detect an unfavorable outcome. CPET is an important predictive tool that may assist in the risk stratification of patients with ToF. Subjects with a poor exercise capacity in addition to a prolonged QRS duration have a substantially increased risk for death or sustained ventricular tachycardia, as well as for cardiac-related hospitalizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

LONG-DURATION X-RAY FLASH AND X-RAY-RICH GAMMA-RAY BURSTS FROM LOW-MASS POPULATION III STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakauchi, Daisuke; Kashiyama, Kazumi; Nakamura, Takashi

2012-11-10

Recent numerical simulations suggest that Population III (Pop III) stars were born with masses not larger than {approx}100 M {sub Sun} and typically {approx}40 M {sub Sun }. By self-consistently considering the jet generation and propagation in the envelope of these low-mass Pop III stars, we find that a Pop III blue supergiant star has the possibility of giving rise to a gamma-ray burst (GRB) even though it keeps a massive hydrogen envelope. We evaluate observational characteristics of Pop III GRBs and predict that Pop III GRBs have a duration of {approx}10{sup 5} s in the observer frame and amore » peak luminosity of {approx}5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 50} erg s{sup -1}. Assuming that the E {sub p}-L {sub p} (or E {sub p}-E {sub {gamma},iso}) correlation holds for Pop III GRBs, we find that the spectrum peak energy falls at approximately a few keV (or {approx}100 keV) in the observer frame. We discuss the detectability of Pop III GRBs by future satellite missions such as EXIST and Lobster. If the E {sub p}-E {sub {gamma},iso} correlation holds, we have the possibility to detect Pop III GRBs at z {approx} 9 as long-duration X-ray-rich GRBs by EXIST. Conversely, if the E {sub p}-L {sub p} correlation holds, we have the possibility to detect Pop III GRBs up to z {approx} 19 as long-duration X-ray flashes by Lobster.« less

Migration trends of Sockeye Salmon at the northern edge of their distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Keith, Kevin D.; Schelske, Merlyn; Lean, Charles; Douglas, David C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is affecting arctic and subarctic ecosystems, and anadromous fish such as Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are particularly susceptible due to the physiological challenge of spawning migrations. Predicting how migratory timing will change under Arctic warming scenarios requires an understanding of how environmental factors drive salmon migrations. Multiple mechanisms exist by which environmental conditions may influence migrating salmon, including altered migration cues from the ocean and natal river. We explored relationships between interannual variability and annual migration timing (2003–2014) of Sockeye Salmon O. nerka in a subarctic watershed with environmental conditions at broad, intermediate, and local spatial scales. Low numbers of Sockeye Salmon have returned to this high-latitude watershed in recent years, and run size has been a dominant influence on the migration duration and the midpoint date of the run. The duration of the migration upriver varied by as much as 25 d across years, and shorter run durations were associated with smaller run sizes. The duration of the migration was also extended with warmer sea surface temperatures in the staging area and lower values of the North Pacific Index. The midpoint date of the total run was earlier when the run size was larger, whereas the midpoint date was delayed during years in which river temperatures warmed earlier in the season. Documenting factors related to the migration of Sockeye Salmon near the northern limit of their range provides insights into the determinants of salmon migrations and suggests processes that could be important for determining future changes in arctic and subarctic ecosystems.

Influence factors and prediction of stormwater runoff of urban green space in Tianjin, China: laboratory experiment and quantitative theory model.

PubMed

Yang, Xu; You, Xue-Yi; Ji, Min; Nima, Ciren

2013-01-01

The effects of limiting factors such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, grass type and vegetation coverage on the stormwater runoff of urban green space was investigated in Tianjin. The prediction equation of stormwater runoff was established by the quantitative theory with the lab experimental data of soil columns. It was validated by three field experiments and the relative errors between predicted and measured stormwater runoff are 1.41, 1.52 and 7.35%, respectively. The results implied that the prediction equation could be used to forecast the stormwater runoff of urban green space. The results of range and variance analysis indicated the sequence order of limiting factors is rainfall intensity > grass type > rainfall duration > vegetation coverage. The least runoff of green land in the present study is the combination of rainfall intensity 60.0 mm/h, duration 60.0 min, grass Festuca arundinacea and vegetation coverage 90.0%. When the intensity and duration of rainfall are 60.0 mm/h and 90.0 min, the predicted volumetric runoff coefficient is 0.23 with Festuca arundinacea of 90.0% vegetation coverage. The present approach indicated that green space is an effective method to reduce stormwater runoff and the conclusions are mainly applicable to Tianjin and the semi-arid areas with main summer precipitation and long-time interval rainfalls.

Status of NASA's Stirling Space Power Converter Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudenhoefer, James E.; Winter, Jerry M.

1991-01-01

An overview is presented of the NASA-Lewis Free-Piston Stirling Space Power Convertor Technology Program. The goal is to develop the technology base needed to meet the long duration, high capacity power requirements for future NASA space initiatives. Efforts are focused upon increasing system power output and system thermal and electric energy conversion efficiency at least fivefold over current SP-100 technology, and on achieving systems that are compatible with space nuclear reactors. Stirling experience in space and progress toward 1050 and 1300 K Stirling Space Power Converters is discussed. Fabrication is nearly completed for the 1050 K Component Test Power Converters (CTPC); results of motoring tests of cold end (525 K), are presented. The success of these and future designs is dependent upon supporting research and technology efforts including heat pipes, bearings, superalloy joining technologies, high efficiency alternators, life and reliability testing and predictive methodologies. An update is provided of progress in some of these technologies leading off with a discussion of free-piston Stirling experience in space.

Is the relationship between race and continuous positive airway pressure adherence mediated by sleep duration?

PubMed

Billings, Martha E; Rosen, Carol L; Wang, Rui; Auckley, Dennis; Benca, Ruth; Foldvary-Schaefer, Nancy; Iber, Conrad; Zee, Phyllis; Redline, Susan; Kapur, Vishesh K

2013-02-01

Black race has been associated with decreased continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence. Short sleep duration, long sleep latency, and insomnia complaints may affect CPAP adherence as they affect sleep and opportunity to use CPAP. We assessed whether self-reported sleep measures were associated with CPAP adherence and if racial variations in these sleep characteristics may explain racial differences in CPAP adherence. Analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial (HomePAP), which investigated home versus laboratory-based diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. Seven American Academy of Sleep Medicine-accredited sleep centers in five cities in the United States. Enrolled subjects (n = 191) with apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 and sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale > 12). N/A. Multivariable regression was used to assess if subjective sleep measures and symptoms predicted 3-mo CPAP use. Mediation analysis was used to assess if sleep measures mediated the association of race with CPAP adherence. Black participants reported shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency at baseline than white and Hispanic participants. Shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency predicted worse CPAP adherence. Sleep duration mediated the association of black race with lower CPAP adherence. However, insomnia symptoms were not associated with race or CPAP adherence. Among subjects with similar severity of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness, baseline self-reported sleep duration and latency, but not perceived insomnia, predicted CPAP adherence over 3 mo. Sleep duration explains some of the observed differences in CPAP use by race. Sleep duration and latency should be considered when evaluating poor CPAP adherence. PORTABLE MONITORING FOR DIAGNOSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF SLEEP APNEA (HOMEPAP) URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00642486. NIH clinical trials registry number: NCT00642486.

Do computer use, TV viewing, and the presence of the media in the bedroom predict school-aged children’s sleep habits in a longitudinal study?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Electronic media use is becoming an increasingly important part of life for today’s school-aged children. At the same time, concern of children’s sleep habits has arisen, and cross-sectional studies have shown that electronic media use is associated with short sleep duration and sleep disturbances. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to investigate whether baseline electronic media use and media presence in a child’s bedroom predicted sleep habits as well as changes in these sleep habits 18 months later among 10- to 11-year-old children in Finland. Methods The school-aged children (n=353, 51% girls) from 27 schools answered a questionnaire in 2006 and again 2008 in the Helsinki region of Finland. Electronic media use was measured by computer use and TV viewing. Media presence in a child’s bedroom means the presence of a TV or a computer in a child’s bedroom. Sleep habits were measured by bedtimes on school days and at the weekend days, sleep duration, discrepancy of bedtimes, and discrepancy of sleep duration between school days and weekends. Linear regression analyses were used to examine whether electronic media use and media presence predicted sleep habits with adjustments for grade, family structure, and baseline sleep. Gender differences were also examined. Results The children used a computer for one hour per day and watched TV over one hour a day in 2006. They slept over nine hours on school days and over ten hours at the weekends in 2008. Computer use and television viewing predicted significantly shorter sleep duration (p<0.001, p<0.05 respectively) and later bedtimes (p<0.001, p<0.01, respectively). Computer use also predicted unfavourable changes in sleep duration (p<0.001) and bedtimes on school days (p<0.001) and weekends (p<0.01). Among boys, media presence in the bedroom predicted poorer sleep habits and irregularity of sleep habits. Conclusions Computer use, TV viewing, and the presence of media in children’s bedrooms may reduce sleep duration, and delay bedtimes. PMID:23886318

Can Energy Cost During Low-Intensity Resistance Exercise be Predicted by the OMNI-RES Scale?

PubMed Central

Vianna, Jefferson M.; Reis, Victor M.; Saavedra, Francisco; Damasceno, Vinicius; Silva, Sérgio G.; Goss, Fredric

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of the OMNI-RES scale to predict energy cost (EC) at low intensity in four resistance exercises (RE). 17 male recreational body builders (age = 26.6 ± 4.9 years; height = 177.7 ± 0.1 cm; body weight = 79.0 ± 11.1 kg and percent body fat = 10.5 ± 4.6%) served as subjects. Initially tests to determine 1RM for four resistance exercises (bench press, half squat, lat pull down and triceps extension) were administered. Subjects also performed resistance exercise at 12, 16, 20, and 24% of 1RM at a rate of 40 bpm until volitional exhaustion. Oxygen uptake (VO2) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) using the OMNI-RES were obtained during and after all RE. EC was calculated using VO2 and the caloric values of VO2 for non-protein RER. Regression analyses were performed for every RE, using EC as the dependent and RPE as the predictor variable. The triceps extension, lat pull down and bench press, RPE correlated strongly with EC (R > 0.97) and predicted EC with a error of less than 0.2 kcal.min−1. In conclusion, RPE using the OMNI-RES scale can be considered as an accurate indicator of EC in the bench press, lat pull down and triceps extension performed by recreational bodybuilders, provided lower intensities are used (up to 24% of 1-RM) and provided each set of exercise is performed for the maximal sustainable duration. It would be interesting in future studies to consider having the subjects exercise at low intensities for longer durations than those in the present study. PMID:23486188

No Associations between Interindividual Differences in Sleep Parameters and Episodic Memory Consolidation

PubMed Central

Ackermann, Sandra; Hartmann, Francina; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; de Quervain, Dominique J.F.; Rasch, Björn

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: Sleep and memory are stable and heritable traits that strongly differ between individuals. Sleep benefits memory consolidation, and the amount of slow wave sleep, sleep spindles, and rapid eye movement sleep have been repeatedly identified as reliable predictors for the amount of declarative and/or emotional memories retrieved after a consolidation period filled with sleep. These studies typically encompass small sample sizes, increasing the probability of overestimating the real association strength. In a large sample we tested whether individual differences in sleep are predictive for individual differences in memory for emotional and neutral pictures. Design: Between-subject design. Setting: Cognitive testing took place at the University of Basel, Switzerland. Sleep was recorded at participants' homes, using portable electroencephalograph-recording devices. Participants: Nine hundred-twenty-nine healthy young participants (mean age 22.48 ± 3.60 y standard deviation). Interventions: None. Measurements and results: In striking contrast to our expectations as well as numerous previous findings, we did not find any significant correlations between sleep and memory consolidation for pictorial stimuli. Conclusions: Our results indicate that individual differences in sleep are much less predictive for pictorial memory processes than previously assumed and suggest that previous studies using small sample sizes might have overestimated the association strength between sleep stage duration and pictorial memory performance. Future studies need to determine whether intraindividual differences rather than interindividual differences in sleep stage duration might be more predictive for the consolidation of emotional and neutral pictures during sleep. Citation: Ackermann S, Hartmann F, Papassotiropoulos A, de Quervain DJF, Rasch B. No associations between interindividual differences in sleep parameters and episodic memory consolidation. SLEEP 2015;38(6):951–959. PMID:25325488

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an awareness campaign for colorectal cancer: a mathematical modeling study.

PubMed

Whyte, Sophie; Harnan, Susan

2014-06-01

A campaign to increase the awareness of the signs and symptoms of colorectal cancer (CRC) and encourage self-presentation to a GP was piloted in two regions of England in 2011. Short-term data from the pilot evaluation on campaign cost and changes in GP attendances/referrals, CRC incidence, and CRC screening uptake were available. The objective was to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a CRC awareness campaign by using a mathematical model which extrapolates short-term outcomes to predict long-term impacts on cancer mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs. A mathematical model representing England (aged 30+) for a lifetime horizon was developed. Long-term changes to cancer incidence, cancer stage distribution, cancer mortality, and QALYs were estimated. Costs were estimated incorporating costs associated with delivering the campaign, additional GP attendances, and changes in CRC treatment. Data from the pilot campaign suggested that the awareness campaign caused a 1-month 10 % increase in presentation rates. Based on this, the model predicted the campaign to cost £5.5 million, prevent 66 CRC deaths and gain 404 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to "no campaign" was £13,496 per QALY. Results were sensitive to the magnitude and duration of the increase in presentation rates and to disease stage. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cancer awareness campaign can be estimated based on short-term data. Such predictions will aid policy makers in prioritizing between cancer control strategies. Future cost-effectiveness studies would benefit from campaign evaluations reporting as follows: data completeness, duration of impact, impact on emergency presentations, and comparison with non-intervention regions.

Comparing different kinds of words and word-word relations to test an habituation model of priming.

PubMed

Rieth, Cory A; Huber, David E

2017-06-01

Huber and O'Reilly (2003) proposed that neural habituation exists to solve a temporal parsing problem, minimizing blending between one word and the next when words are visually presented in rapid succession. They developed a neural dynamics habituation model, explaining the finding that short duration primes produce positive priming whereas long duration primes produce negative repetition priming. The model contains three layers of processing, including a visual input layer, an orthographic layer, and a lexical-semantic layer. The predicted effect of prime duration depends both on this assumed representational hierarchy and the assumption that synaptic depression underlies habituation. The current study tested these assumptions by comparing different kinds of words (e.g., words versus non-words) and different kinds of word-word relations (e.g., associative versus repetition). For each experiment, the predictions of the original model were compared to an alternative model with different representational assumptions. Experiment 1 confirmed the prediction that non-words and inverted words require longer prime durations to eliminate positive repetition priming (i.e., a slower transition from positive to negative priming). Experiment 2 confirmed the prediction that associative priming increases and then decreases with increasing prime duration, but remains positive even with long duration primes. Experiment 3 replicated the effects of repetition and associative priming using a within-subjects design and combined these effects by examining target words that were expected to repeat (e.g., viewing the target word 'BACK' after the prime phrase 'back to'). These results support the originally assumed representational hierarchy and more generally the role of habituation in temporal parsing and priming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immuno-oncology Clinical Trial Design: Limitations, Challenges, and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Baik, Christina S.; Rubin, Eric H.; Forde, Patrick M.; Mehnert, Janice M.; Collyar, Deborah; Butler, Marcus O.; Dixon, Erica L.; Chow, Laura Q.M.

2017-01-01

Recent advances in immuno-oncology and regulatory approvals have been rapid and paradigm shifting in many difficult-to-treat malignancies. Despite immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy becoming the standard of care across multiple tumor types, there are many unanswered questions that need to be addressed before this therapeutic modality can be fully harnessed. Areas of limitations include treatment of patients not sufficiently represented in clinical trials, uncertainty of the optimal treatment dosing and duration, and lack of understanding regarding long-term immune related toxicities and atypical tumor responses. Patients such as those with autoimmune disease, chronic viral infections, limited performance status, and brain metastases were often excluded from initial trials due to concerns of safety. However, limited data suggest that some of these patients can benefit from therapy with manageable toxicities; thus, future studies should incorporate these patients to clearly define safety and efficacy. There are still controversies regarding the optimal dosing strategy that can vary from weight-based to flat dosing, with undefined treatment duration. Further elucidation of the optimal dosing approach and evaluation of predictive biomarkers should be incorporated in the design of future trials. Finally, there are long-term immune-mediated toxicities, atypical tumor responses such as pseudoprogression and endpoints unique to immuno-oncology that are not adequately captured by traditional trial designs; thus, novel study designs are needed. In this article, we discuss in detail the above challenges and propose needed areas of research for exploration and incorporation in the next generation of immuno-oncology clinical trials. PMID:28864727

The utility of hemoglobin A1c at diagnosis for prediction of future glycemic control in children with type 1 diabetes

PubMed Central

Viswanathan, Vidhya; Sneeringer, M. Rhonda; Miller, Adam; Eugster, Erica A.; DiMeglio, Linda A.

2014-01-01

Introduction We evaluated the relationships of hemoglobin A1c (A1c) at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1DM) to future glycemic control and to a series of clinical variables in children with T1DM. Materials and methods Patients <18 years old diagnosed with T1DM during a one year period who had an A1c at diagnosis and at least one follow-up visit at our center were eligible for inclusion. Baseline variables examined included age, race, gender, symptom duration, admission acuity, anthropometrics, bicarbonate, and A1c. Annual anthropometric and A1c data were also obtained from clinic visits through 4 years after diagnosis. Results We identified 120 children (53 males). Mean age at diagnosis was 7.6 ± 3.9 years. Mean A1c at diagnosis was 10.9 ± 1.9%. A1c at diagnosis correlated with age at diagnosis, symptom duration, and A1c at 3-years, with trends towards correlations at 6 weeks and 4 years. A1c at 1 year correlated highly with A1c at subsequent visits. No other baseline variables correlated with subsequent glycemic control. Conclusions In children with newly diagnosed diabetes, A1cs at diagnosis and one year post diagnosis are related to subsequent glycemic control. Children with high A1cs particularly at one year post diagnosis may benefit from targeted intensification of resources. PMID:21272951

Discovery and New Frontiers Project Budget Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newhouse, Marilyn E.

2011-01-01

The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs are multi-project, uncoupled programs that currently comprise 13 missions in phases A through F. The ability to fly frequent science missions to explore the solar system is the primary measure of program success. The program office uses a Budget Analysis Tool to perform "what-if" analyses and compare mission scenarios to the current program budget, and rapidly forecast the programs ability to meet their launch rate requirements. The tool allows the user to specify the total mission cost (fixed year), mission development and operations profile by phase (percent total mission cost and duration), launch vehicle, and launch date for multiple missions. The tool automatically applies inflation and rolls up the total program costs (in real year dollars) for comparison against available program budget. Thus, the tool allows the user to rapidly and easily explore a variety of launch rates and analyze the effect of changes in future mission or launch vehicle costs, the differing development profiles or operational durations of a future mission, or a replan of a current mission on the overall program budget. Because the tool also reports average monthly costs for the specified mission profile, the development or operations cost profile can easily be validate against program experience for similar missions. While specifically designed for predicting overall program budgets for programs that develop and operate multiple missions concurrently, the basic concept of the tool (rolling up multiple, independently-budget lines) could easily be adapted to other applications.

Climatic changes, bioclimatic stages and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-12-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications related to public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable for predestinate pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned to favorable ecological habitats, flooded areas extent and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations in relation with actual climat. We have refine mediterranean spatial knowledge in mediterranean basin with actual data. We show evolution of climat and consequences for bioclimatic stages, using world clim data and IPCC scenarii. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects birds, horses and hands up to men (e.g.West Nile virus appeared in 1999 in USA, between 1999 and 2007 : 27 000 human cases including 1 050 deaths). Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it’s possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Potential weathering by freeze-thaw action in alpine rocks in the European Alps during a nine year monitoring period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas

2017-11-01

A quantification of rock weathering by freeze-thaw processes in alpine rocks requires at least rock temperature data in high temporal resolution, in high quality, and over a sufficient period of time. In this study up to nine years of rock temperature data (2006-2015) from eleven rock monitoring sites in two of the highest mountain ranges of Austria were analyzed. Data were recorded at a half-hourly or hourly logging interval and at rock depths of 3, 10, and 30-40 cm. These data have been used to quantify mean conditions, ranges, and relationships of the potential near-surface weathering by freeze-thaw action considering volumetric-expansion of ice and ice segregation. For the former, freeze-thaw cycles and effective freeze-thaw cycles for frost shattering have been considered. For the latter, the intensity and duration of freezing events as well as time within the 'frost cracking window' have been analyzed. Results show that the eleven sites are in rather extreme topoclimatic positions and hence represent some of the highest and coolest parts of Austria and therefore the Eastern Alps. Only four sites are presumably affected by permafrost. Most sites are influenced by a long-lasting seasonal snow cover. Freeze-thaw cycles and effective freeze-thaw cycles for frost shattering are mainly affecting the near-surface and are unimportant at few tens of centimeters below the rock surface. The lowest temperatures during freezing events and the shortest freezing events have been quantified at all eleven monitoring sites very close to the surface. The time within the frost cracking window decreases in most cases from the rock surface inwards apart from very cold years/sites with very low temperatures close to the surface. As shown by this study and predicted climate change scenarios, assumed warmer rock temperature conditions in the future at alpine rock walls in Austria will lead to less severe freezing events and to shorter time periods within the frost-cracking window. Statistical correlation analyses showed furthermore that the longer the duration of the seasonal snow cover, the fewer are freeze-thaw cycles, the fewer are effective freeze-thaw cycles, the longer is the mean and the maximum duration of freezing events, and the lower is the mean annual ground temperature. The interaction of the winter snow cover history and the winter thermal regime has a complex effect on the duration of the frost cracking window but also on the number of freeze-thaw cycles as shown by a conceptual model. Predicted future warmer and snow-depleted winters in the European Alps will therefore have a complex impact on the potential weathering of alpine rocks by frost action which makes potential weathering predictions difficult. Neglecting rock moisture and rock properties in determining rock weathering limits the usefulness of solely rock temperature data. However, rock temperature data allow getting an estimate about potential weathering by freeze-thaw action which is often substantially more than previously known.

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Bharamgoudar, Reshma; Sonsale, Aniket; Hodson, James; Griffiths, Ewen

2018-07-01

The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45-85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions. These results are largely reflective of cross-correlation existing in hydrologic datasets, and highlight the limited predictive power of many traditionally used variables for regional regression. A parsimonious approach including fewer variables chosen based on their connection to streamflow may be more efficient than a data mining approach including many different variables. Future regional regression studies may benefit from having a hydrologic rationale for including different variables and attempting to create new variables related to streamflow.

Dietary specialization is linked to reduced species durations in North American fossil canids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balisi, Mairin; Casey, Corinna; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2018-04-01

How traits influence species persistence is a fundamental question in ecology, evolution and palaeontology. We test the relationship between dietary traits and both species duration and locality coverage over 40 million years in North American canids, a clade with considerable ecomorphological disparity and a dense fossil record. Because ecomorphological generalization-broad resource use-may enable species to withstand disturbance, we predicted that canids of average size and mesocarnivory would exhibit longer durations and wider distributions than specialized larger or smaller species. Second, because locality coverage might reflect dispersal ability and/or survivability in a range of habitats, we predicted that high coverage would correspond with longer durations. We find a nonlinear relationship between species duration and degree of carnivory: species at either end of the carnivory spectrum tend to have shorter durations than mesocarnivores. Locality coverage shows no relationship with size, diet or duration. To test whether generalization (medium size, mesocarnivory) corresponds to an adaptive optimum, we fit trait evolution models to previously generated canid phylogenies. Our analyses identify no single optimum in size or diet. Instead, the primary model of size evolution is a classic Cope's Rule increase over time, while dietary evolution does not conform to a single model.

Modeling Photodisintegration-induced TeV Photon Emission from Low-luminosity Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xue-Wen; Wu, Xue-Feng; Lu, Tan

2012-05-01

Ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray heavy nuclei have recently been considered as originating from nearby low-luminosity gamma-ray bursts that are associated with Type Ibc supernovae. Unlike the power-law decay in long duration gamma-ray bursts, the light curve of these bursts exhibits complex UV/optical behavior: shock breakout dominated thermal radiation peaks at about 1 day, and, after that, nearly constant emission sustained by radioactive materials for tens of days. We show that the highly boosted heavy nuclei at PeV energy interacting with the UV/optical photon field will produce considerable TeV photons via the photodisintegration/photo-de-excitation process. It was later predicted that a thermal-like γ-ray spectrum peaks at about a few TeV, which may serve as evidence of nucleus acceleration. The future observations by the space telescope Fermi and by the ground atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes such as H.E.S.S., VERITAS, and MAGIC will shed light on this prediction.

Virginia Water Resources: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor the Extent of Harmful Algal Blooms in Virginia Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubkin, S. H.; Morgan, C.

2015-12-01

Harmful algal bloom species have had an increasing ecological impact on the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where they disrupt water chemistry, kill fish and cause human illness. In Virginia, scientists from Virginia Institute of Marine Science and Old Dominion University monitor HABs and their effect on water quality; however, these groups lack a method to monitor HABs in real time. This limits the ability to document associated water quality conditions and predict future blooms. Band reflectance values from Landsat 8 Surface Reflectance data (USGS Earth Explorer) and MODIS Chlorophyll imagery (NOAA CoastWatch) were cross calibrated to create a regression model that calculated concentrations of chlorophyll. Calculations were verified with in situ measurements from the Virginia Estuarine and Coastal Observing System. Imagery produced with the Chlorophyll-A calculation model will allow VIMS and ODU scientists to assess the timing, magnitude, duration and frequency of HABs in Virginia's Chesapeake watershed and to predict the environmental and water quality conditions that favor bloom development.

The evolution of trade-offs: geographic variation in call duration and flight ability in the sand cricket, Gryllus firmus.

PubMed

Roff, D A; Crnokrak, P; Fairbairn, D J

2003-07-01

Quantitative genetic theory assumes that trade-offs are best represented by bivariate normal distributions. This theory predicts that selection will shift the trade-off function itself and not just move the mean trait values along a fixed trade-off line, as is generally assumed in optimality models. As a consequence, quantitative genetic theory predicts that the trade-off function will vary among populations in which at least one of the component traits itself varies. This prediction is tested using the trade-off between call duration and flight capability, as indexed by the mass of the dorsolateral flight muscles, in the macropterous morph of the sand cricket. We use four different populations of crickets that vary in the proportion of macropterous males (Lab = 33%, Florida = 29%, Bermuda = 72%, South Carolina = 80%). We find, as predicted, that there is significant variation in the intercept of the trade-off function but not the slope, supporting the hypothesis that trade-off functions are better represented as bivariate normal distributions rather than single lines. We also test the prediction from a quantitative genetical model of the evolution of wing dimorphism that the mean call duration of macropterous males will increase with the percentage of macropterous males in the population. This prediction is also supported. Finally, we estimate the probability of a macropterous male attracting a female, P, as a function of the relative time spent calling (P = time spent calling by macropterous male/(total time spent calling by both micropterous and macropterous male). We find that in the Lab and Florida populations the probability of a female selecting the macropterous male is equal to P, indicating that preference is due simply to relative call duration. But in the Bermuda and South Carolina populations the probability of a female selecting a macropterous male is less than P, indicating a preference for the micropterous male even after differences in call duration are accounted for.

Space mechanisms needs for future NASA long duration space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusaro, Robert L.

1991-01-01

Future NASA long duration missions will require high performance, reliable, long lived mechanical moving systems. In order to develop these systems, high technology components, such as bearings, gears, seals, lubricants, etc., will need to be utilized. There has been concern in the NASA community that the current technology level in these mechanical component/tribology areas may not be adequate to meet the goals of long duration NASA mission such as Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). To resolve this concern, NASA-Lewis sent a questionnaire to government and industry workers (who have been involved in space mechanism research, design, and implementation) to ask their opinion if the current space mechanisms technology (mechanical components/tribology) is adequate to meet future NASA Mission needs and goals. In addition, a working group consisting of members from each NASA Center, DoD, and DOE was established to study the technology status. The results of the survey and conclusions of the working group are summarized.

Meta-analysis of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: Applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.; Martin, Deborah

2017-01-01

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire is critical for restoring the ecosystem services of protecting of human lives and infrastructure from hazards and delivering water supply of sufficient quality and quantity. Recovery of soil-hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), is a key factor for assessing the duration of watershed-scale flash flood and debris flow risks after wildfire. Despite the crucial role of Kfs in parameterizing numerical hydrologic models to predict the magnitude of postwildfire run-off and erosion, existing quantitative relations to predict Kfsrecovery with time since wildfire are lacking. Here, we conduct meta-analyses of 5 datasets from the literature that measure or estimate Kfs with time since wildfire for longer than 3-year duration. The meta-analyses focus on fitting 2 quantitative relations (linear and non-linear logistic) to explain trends in Kfs temporal recovery. The 2 relations adequately described temporal recovery except for 1 site where macropore flow dominated infiltration and Kfs recovery. This work also suggests that Kfs can have low hydrologic resistance (large postfire changes), and moderate to high hydrologic stability (recovery time relative to disturbance recurrence interval) and resilience (recovery of hydrologic function and provision of ecosystem services). Future Kfs relations could more explicitly incorporate processes such as soil-water repellency, ground cover and soil structure regeneration, macropore recovery, and vegetation regrowth.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Ongoing behavior predicts perceptual report of interval duration

PubMed Central

Gouvêa, Thiago S.; Monteiro, Tiago; Soares, Sofia; Atallah, Bassam V.; Paton, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

The ability to estimate the passage of time is essential for adaptive behavior in complex environments. Yet, it is not known how the brain encodes time over the durations necessary to explain animal behavior. Under temporally structured reinforcement schedules, animals tend to develop temporally structured behavior, and interval timing has been suggested to be accomplished by learning sequences of behavioral states. If this is true, trial to trial fluctuations in behavioral sequences should be predictive of fluctuations in time estimation. We trained rodents in an duration categorization task while continuously monitoring their behavior with a high speed camera. Animals developed highly reproducible behavioral sequences during the interval being timed. Moreover, those sequences were often predictive of perceptual report from early in the trial, providing support to the idea that animals may use learned behavioral patterns to estimate the duration of time intervals. To better resolve the issue, we propose that continuous and simultaneous behavioral and neural monitoring will enable identification of neural activity related to time perception that is not explained by ongoing behavior. PMID:24672473

Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bistrian, Bruce

2009-01-01

The Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) reviewed and discussed the specific gaps and tasks for the Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element related to nutrition identified in the Human Research Program (HRP) Integrated Research Plan. There was general consensus that the described gaps and proposed tasks were critical to future NASA mission success. The SRP acknowledged the high scientific quality of the work currently being undertaken by the Nutritional Biochemistry group under the direction of Dr. Scott Smith. In review of the entire HRP, four new gaps were identified that complement the Element's existing research activities. Given the limitations of ground-based analogs for many of the unique physiological and metabolic alterations in space, future studies are needed to quantify nutritional factors that change during actual space flight. In addition, future tasks should seek to better evaluate the time course of physiological and metabolic alterations during flight to better predict alterations during longer duration missions. Finally, given the recent data suggesting a potential role for increased inflammatory responses during space flight, the role of inflammation needs to be explored in detail, including the development of potential countermeasures and new ground based analogs, if this possibility is confirmed.

[Consequences of new patient discharge guidelines on the cost structure of radioiodine therapy].

PubMed

Dietlein, M; Troche, C J; Moka, D; Bausch, V; Lauterbach, K W; Schicha, H

1998-01-01

Consequences of the new recommendations by the Federal German Radiation Protection Committee (SSK) for patient discharge guidelines (residual activity of 250 MBq for I-131) were calculated for duration of stay and radioiodine therapy cost management. For 601 consecutively admitted patients with hyperthyreosis, actual duration of stay and duration of stay according to previous guidelines (from 1993) were calculated, as well as duration of stay according to recommended values. Following BPflV statutes, cost-analysis considered the cause and volume of goitre, and by using sensitivity analyses included a range of diagnostics, service assessment, and duration of stay. Duration of stay following I-131 therapy (in Germany) is expected to fall by 35-50% (average future stay 4.0 +/- 2.8 days), average costs from DM 4,452 to DM 3,680 (-17.4%). Not including pretreatment diagnostics, cost reduction (service assessment 17-24%) was estimated at 21-25%. Compared to strumectomy, I-131 therapy costs are expected to be lower for goitres (Graves' disease) up to at least 60 ml, toxic nodules of at least 25 ml, and toxic multinodular goitres of at least 90 ml. In the future, I-131 therapy will be more cost-effective even with larger goitres. Since reimbursement is determined by the duration of stay, new reimbursement procedures are discussed in this paper.

Determinants of sick-leave duration: a tool for managers?

PubMed

Flach, Peter A; Krol, Boudien; Groothoff, Johan W

2008-09-01

To provide managers with tools to manage episodes of sick-leave of their employees, the influence of factors such as age, gender, duration of tenure, working full-time or part-time, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and education on sick-leave duration was studied. In a cross-sectional study, data derived from the 2005 sick-leave files of a Dutch university were examined. Odds ratios of the single risk factors were calculated for short spells (or=91 days) of sick-leave. Next, these factors were studied in multiple regression models. Age, gender, duration of employment, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and membership of scientific staff, studied as single factors, have a significant influence on sick-leave duration. In multiple models, this influence remains for gender, salary, age, and history and cause of sick-leave. Only in medium or long spells and regarding the risk for a long or an extended spell do the predictive values of models consisting of psychological factors, work-related factors, salary and gender become reasonable. The predictive value of the risk factors used in this study is limited, and varies with the duration of the sick-leave spell. Only the risk for an extended spell of sick-leave as compared to a medium or long spell is reasonably predicted. Factors contributing to this risk may be used as tools in decision-making.

Bursts of seizures in long-term recordings of human focal epilepsy

PubMed Central

Karoly, Philippa J.; Nurse, Ewan S.; Freestone, Dean R.; Ung, Hoameng; Cook, Mark J.; Boston, Ray

2017-01-01

Summary Objective We report on temporally clustered seizures detected from continuous long-term ambulatory human electroencephalographic data. The objective was to investigate short-term seizure clustering, which we have termed bursting, and consider implications for patient care, seizure prediction, and evaluating therapies. Methods Chronic ambulatory intracranial EEG data collected for the purpose of seizure prediction were annotated to identify seizure events. A detection algorithm was used to identify bursts of events. Burst events were compared to non-burst events to evaluate event dispersion, duration and dynamics. Results Bursts of seizures were present in six of fifteen patients, and detections were consistent over long term monitoring (> 2 years). Seizures within bursts are highly overdispersed compared to non-burst seizures. There was a complicated relationship between bursts and clinical seizures, although bursts were associated with multi-modal distributions of seizure duration, and poorer predictive outcomes. For three subjects, bursts demonstrated distinctive pre-ictal dynamics compared to clinical seizures. Significance We have previously hypothesized that there are distinct physiological pathways underlying short and long duration seizures. Here we show that burst seizures fall almost exclusively within the short population of seizure durations; however, a short duration was not sufficient to induce or imply bursting. We can therefore conclude that in addition to distinct mechanisms underlying seizure duration, there are separate factors regulating bursts of seizures. We show that bursts were a robust phenomenon in our patient cohort, which were consistent with overdispersed seizure rates, suggesting long-memory dynamics. PMID:28084639

Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

2003-01-01

BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Distortions of Subjective Time Perception Within and Across Senses

PubMed Central

van Wassenhove, Virginie; Buonomano, Dean V.; Shimojo, Shinsuke; Shams, Ladan

2008-01-01

Background The ability to estimate the passage of time is of fundamental importance for perceptual and cognitive processes. One experience of time is the perception of duration, which is not isomorphic to physical duration and can be distorted by a number of factors. Yet, the critical features generating these perceptual shifts in subjective duration are not understood. Methodology/Findings We used prospective duration judgments within and across sensory modalities to examine the effect of stimulus predictability and feature change on the perception of duration. First, we found robust distortions of perceived duration in auditory, visual and auditory-visual presentations despite the predictability of the feature changes in the stimuli. For example, a looming disc embedded in a series of steady discs led to time dilation, whereas a steady disc embedded in a series of looming discs led to time compression. Second, we addressed whether visual (auditory) inputs could alter the perception of duration of auditory (visual) inputs. When participants were presented with incongruent audio-visual stimuli, the perceived duration of auditory events could be shortened or lengthened by the presence of conflicting visual information; however, the perceived duration of visual events was seldom distorted by the presence of auditory information and was never perceived shorter than their actual durations. Conclusions/Significance These results support the existence of multisensory interactions in the perception of duration and, importantly, suggest that vision can modify auditory temporal perception in a pure timing task. Insofar as distortions in subjective duration can neither be accounted for by the unpredictability of an auditory, visual or auditory-visual event, we propose that it is the intrinsic features of the stimulus that critically affect subjective time distortions. PMID:18197248

Trial of Propranolol in Children and Youth with ASD and Predictors of Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

youth) predicts treatment response. The design for both aims will be a double-blinded, placebo- controlled trial, 12 weeks in duration, with...the youth) predicts treatment response. The design for both aims will be a double-blinded, placebo- controlled trial, 12 weeks in duration, with...Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704

Effects of stimulus order on discrimination processes in comparative and equality judgements: data and models.

PubMed

Dyjas, Oliver; Ulrich, Rolf

2014-01-01

In typical discrimination experiments, participants are presented with a constant standard and a variable comparison stimulus and their task is to judge which of these two stimuli is larger (comparative judgement). In these experiments, discrimination sensitivity depends on the temporal order of these stimuli (Type B effect) and is usually higher when the standard precedes rather than follows the comparison. Here, we outline how two models of stimulus discrimination can account for the Type B effect, namely the weighted difference model (or basic Sensation Weighting model) and the Internal Reference Model. For both models, the predicted psychometric functions for comparative judgements as well as for equality judgements, in which participants indicate whether they perceived the two stimuli to be equal or not equal, are derived and it is shown that the models also predict a Type B effect for equality judgements. In the empirical part, the models' predictions are evaluated. To this end, participants performed a duration discrimination task with comparative judgements and with equality judgements. In line with the models' predictions, a Type B effect was observed for both judgement types. In addition, a time-order error, as indicated by shifts of the psychometric functions, and differences in response times were observed only for the equality judgement. Since both models entail distinct additional predictions, it seems worthwhile for future research to unite the two models into one conceptual framework.

[Associations of the work duration, sleep duration and number of holidays with an exaggerated blood pressure response during an exercise stress test among workers].

PubMed

Michishita, Ryoma; Ohta, Masanori; Ikeda, Masaharu; Jiang, Ying; Yamato, Hiroshi

2016-01-01

It has been reported that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure (ESBP) response during exercise, even if resting blood pressure is normal, is associated with an increased risk of future hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study was designed to investigate the relationships of work duration, sleep duration and number of holidays with blood pressure response during an exercise stress test among normotensive workers. The subjects were 362 normotensive workers (79 males and 283 females; age, 49.1 years). A multi-stage graded submaximal exercise stress test was performed on each subject using an electric bicycle ergometer. The workload was increased every 3 minutes, and blood pressure was measured at rest and during the last 1 minute of each stage. In this study, an ESBP response during exercise was defined according to the criteria of the Framingham Study (peak systolic blood pressure ≥210 mmHg in males, or ≥190 mmHg in females). Working environments, work duration, sleep duration, number of holidays, and physical activity during commuting and work, and leisure time exercise duration were evaluated using a questionnaire. An ESBP response during exercise was observed in 94 (26.0%) workers. The adjusted odds ratio for the prevalence of an ESBP response during exercise was found to be significantly higher with an increase in work duration, decreases in sleep duration and number of holidays (p<0.05, respectively). Moreover, the highest work duration with lowest sleep duration and number of holidays groups had significantly higher adjusted odds ratio for the prevalence of an ESBP response during exercise than the lowest work duration with highest sleep duration and number of holidays groups (p<0.05, respectively). Based on our results, we consider that the assessment of blood pressure response during exercise and daily life are necessary to prevent the incidence of future hypertension, CVD and death due to overwork in workers with long-work duration, short sleep duration and small number of holidays.

Duration of attenuated positive and negative symptoms in individuals at clinical high risk: Associations with risk of conversion to psychosis and functional outcome

PubMed Central

Carrión, Ricardo E.; Demmin, Docia; Auther, Andrea M.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Olsen, Ruth; Lencz, Todd; Correll, Christoph U.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.

2016-01-01

Research in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis has focused on subjects with no more than 12 months of present or worsened attenuated positive symptoms. However, the impact of long duration attenuated positive and/or negative prodromal symptoms on outcomes is unclear. Seventy-six CHR subjects with attenuated positive symptoms and at least moderate severity level negative symptoms rated on the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) were prospectively followed for a mean of 3.0 ± 1.6 years. Social and Role functioning was assessed with the Global Functioning: Social and Role scales. Correlations between attenuated positive and negative symptom duration and severity and conversion to psychosis and functional outcomes were analyzed. The average onset of SOPS rated negative symptoms (M = 53.24 months, SD = 48.90, median = 37.27) was approximately twelve months prior to the emergence of attenuated positive symptom (M = 40.15 months, SD = 40.33, median = 24.77, P < 0.05). More severe positive symptoms (P = 0.004), but not longer duration of positive (P = 0.412) or negative (P = 0.754) symptoms, predicted conversion to psychosis. Neither positive symptom duration (P = 0.181) nor severity (P = 0.469) predicted role or social functioning at study endpoint. Conversely, longer negative symptom duration predicted poor social functioning (P = 0.004). Overall, our findings suggest that the severity of attenuated positive symptoms at baseline may be more important than symptom duration for determining individuals at increased risk of developing psychosis. In contrast, long-standing negative symptoms may be associated with persistent social difficulties and therefore have an important position in the treatment of disability. PMID:27424062

Transitioning from adequate to inadequate sleep duration associated with higher smoking rate and greater nicotine dependence in a population sample

PubMed Central

Patterson, Freda; Grandner, Michael A.; Lozano, Alicia; Satti, Aditi; Ma, Grace

2017-01-01

Introduction Inadequate sleep (≤6 and ≥9 h) is more prevalent in smokers than non-smokers but the extent to which sleep duration in smokers relates to smoking behaviors and cessation outcomes, is not yet clear. To begin to address this knowledge gap, we investigated the extent to which sleep duration predicted smoking behaviors and quitting intention in a population sample. Methods Data from current smokers who completed the baseline (N=635) and 5-year follow-up (N=477) assessment in the United Kingdom Biobank cohort study were analyzed. Multivariable regression models using smoking behavior outcomes (cigarettes per day, time to first cigarette, difficulty not smoking for a day, quitting intention) and sleep duration (adequate (7–8 h) versus inadequate (≤6 and ≥9 h) as the predictor were generated. All models adjusted for age, sex, race, and education. Results Worsening sleep duration (adequate to inadequate) predicted a more than three-fold higher odds in increased cigarettes per day (OR =3.18; 95% CI =1.25–8.06), a more than three-fold increased odds of not smoking for the day remaining difficult (OR =3.90; 95% CI =1.27–12.01), and a > 8-fold increased odds of higher nicotine dependence (OR= 8.98; 95% CI =2.81–28.66). Improving sleep duration (i.e., inadequate to adequate sleep) did not predict reduced cigarette consumption or nicotine dependence in this population sample. Conclusion Transitioning from adequate to inadequate sleep duration may be a risk factor for developing a more “hard-core” smoking profile. The extent to which achieving healthy sleep may promote, or optimize smoking cessation treatment response, warrants investigation. PMID:28950118

Muscle Strength and Changes in Physical Function in Women With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

PubMed

Andrews, James S; Trupin, Laura; Schmajuk, Gabriela; Barton, Jennifer; Margaretten, Mary; Yazdany, Jinoos; Yelin, Edward H; Katz, Patricia P

2015-08-01

Cross-sectional studies have observed that muscle weakness is associated with worse physical function among women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The present study examines whether reduced upper and lower extremity muscle strength predict declines in function over time among adult women with SLE. One hundred forty-six women from a longitudinal SLE cohort participated in the study. All measures were collected during in-person research visits approximately 2 years apart. Upper extremity muscle strength was assessed by grip strength. Lower extremity muscle strength was assessed by peak knee torque of extension and flexion. Physical function was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Regression analyses modeled associations of baseline upper and lower extremity muscle strength with followup SPPB scores controlling for baseline SPPB, age, SLE duration, SLE disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire), physical activity level, prednisone use, body composition, and depression. Secondary analyses tested whether associations of baseline muscle strength with followup in SPPB scores differed between intervals of varying baseline muscle strength. Lower extremity muscle strength strongly predicted changes over 2 years in physical function even when controlling for covariates. The association of reduced lower extremity muscle strength with reduced physical function in the future was greatest among the weakest women. Reduced lower extremity muscle strength predicted clinically significant declines in physical function, especially among the weakest women. Future studies should test whether therapies that promote preservation of lower extremity muscle strength may prevent declines in function among women with SLE. © 2015, American College of Rheumatology.

The NASA Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS): Concept Demonstration Results and Future Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutishauser, David K.; OConnor, Cornelius J.

2004-01-01

Since the late 1990s the national airspace system has been recognized as approaching a capacity crisis. In the light of this condition, industry, government, user organizations, and educational institutions have been working on procedural and technological solutions to the problem. One aspect of system operations that holds potential for improvement is the separation criteria applied to aircraft for wake vortex avoidance. These criteria, applied when operations are conducted under instrument flight rules (IFR), were designed to represent safe spacing under weather conditions conducive to the longest wake hazards. It is well understood that wake behavior is dependent on meteorological conditions as well as the physical parameters of the generating aircraft. Under many ambient conditions, such as moderate crosswinds or turbulence, wake hazard durations are substantially reduced. To realize this reduction NASA has developed a proof-of-concept Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). Successfully demonstrated in a realtime field demonstration during July 2000 at the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW), AVOSS is a novel integration of weather sensors, wake sensors, and analytical wake prediction algorithms. AVOSS provides dynamic wake separation criteria that are a function of the ambient weather conditions for a particular airport, and the predicted wake behavior under those conditions. Wake sensing subsystems provide safety checks and validation for the predictions. The AVOSS was demonstrated in shadow mode; no actual spacing changes were applied to aircraft. This paper briefly reviews the system architecture and operation, reports the latest performance results from the DFW deployment, and describes the future direction of the project.

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

Laser-fired contact formation on metallized and passivated silicon wafers under short pulse durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Ashwin S.

The objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes governing laser-fired contact (LFC) formation under microsecond pulse durations. Primary emphasis is placed on understanding how processing parameters influence contact morphology, passivation layer quality, alloying of Al and Si, and contact resistance. In addition, the research seeks to develop a quantitative method to accurately predict the contact geometry, thermal cycles, heat and mass transfer phenomena, and the influence of contact pitch distance on substrate temperatures in order to improve the physical understanding of the underlying processes. Finally, the work seeks to predict how geometry for LFCs produced with microsecond pulses will influence fabrication and performance factors, such as the rear side contacting scheme, rear surface series resistance and effective rear surface recombination rates. The characterization of LFC cross-sections reveals that the use of microsecond pulse durations results in the formation of three-dimensional hemispherical or half-ellipsoidal contact geometries. The LFC is heavily alloyed with Al and Si and is composed of a two-phase Al-Si microstructure that grows from the Si wafer during resolidification. As a result of forming a large three-dimensional contact geometry, the total contact resistance is governed by the interfacial contact area between the LFC and the wafer rather than the planar contact area at the original Al-Si interface within an opening in the passivation layer. By forming three-dimensional LFCs, the total contact resistance is significantly reduced in comparison to that predicted for planar contacts. In addition, despite the high energy densities associated with microsecond pulse durations, the passivation layer is well preserved outside of the immediate contact region. Therefore, the use of microsecond pulse durations can be used to improve device performance by leading to lower total contact resistances while preserving the passivation layer. A mathematical model was developed to accurately predict LFC geometry over a wide range of processing parameters by accounting for transient changes in Al and Si alloy composition within the LFC. Since LFC geometry plays a critical role in device performance, an accurate method to predict contact geometry is an important tool that can facilitate further process development. Dimensionless analysis was also conducted to evaluate the relative importance of heat and mass transfer mechanisms. It is shown that convection plays a dominant role in the heat and mass transfer within the molten pool. Due to convective mass transfer, the contacts are heavily doped with Al and Si within 10 is after contact formation, which contributes to the entire resolidified region behaving as the electrically active LFC. The validated model is also used to determine safe operating regimes during laser processing to avoid excessively high operating temperatures. By maintaining processing temperatures below a critical temperature threshold, the onset of liquid metal expulsion and loss of alloying elements can be avoided. The process maps provide a framework that can be used to tailor LFC geometry for device fabrication. Finally, using various geometric relationships for the rear side contacting scheme for photovoltaic devices, it is shown that by employing hemispherical contacts, the number of LFCs required on the rear side can be reduced 75% while doubling the pitch distance and increasing the passivation fraction. Reducing the number of backside contacts required can have a noteworthy impact of manufacturing throughput. In addition, the analytical models suggest that device performance can be maintained at levels comparable to those achieved for planar contacts when producing three-dimensional contacts. The materials and electrical characterization results, device simulations, and design considerations presented in this thesis indicate that by forming three-dimensional LFCs, performance levels of Si-based photovoltaic devices can be maintained while greatly enhancing manufacturing efficiency. The research lays a solid foundation for future development of the LFC process with microsecond pulse durations and indicates that device fabrication employing this method is a critical step moving forward.

Incubation behavior adjustments, driven by ambient temperature variation, improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar peak in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Simmonds, Emily G; Sheldon, Ben C; Coulson, Tim; Cole, Ella F

2017-11-01

For organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits ( Parus major ) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54-year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in-nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.

How long did it last? You would better ask a human

PubMed Central

Lacquaniti, Francesco; Carrozzo, Mauro; d’Avella, Andrea; La Scaleia, Barbara; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Zago, Myrka

2014-01-01

In the future, human-like robots will live among people to provide company and help carrying out tasks in cooperation with humans. These interactions require that robots understand not only human actions, but also the way in which we perceive the world. Human perception heavily relies on the time dimension, especially when it comes to processing visual motion. Critically, human time perception for dynamic events is often inaccurate. Robots interacting with humans may want to see the world and tell time the way humans do: if so, they must incorporate human-like fallacy. Observers asked to judge the duration of brief scenes are prone to errors: perceived duration often does not match the physical duration of the event. Several kinds of temporal distortions have been described in the specialized literature. Here we review the topic with a special emphasis on our work dealing with time perception of animate actors versus inanimate actors. This work shows the existence of specialized time bases for different categories of targets. The time base used by the human brain to process visual motion appears to be calibrated against the specific predictions regarding the motion of human figures in case of animate motion, while it can be calibrated against the predictions of motion of passive objects in case of inanimate motion. Human perception of time appears to be strictly linked with the mechanisms used to control movements. Thus, neural time can be entrained by external cues in a similar manner for both perceptual judgments of elapsed time and in motor control tasks. One possible strategy could be to implement in humanoids a unique architecture for dealing with time, which would apply the same specialized mechanisms to both perception and action, similarly to humans. This shared implementation might render the humanoids more acceptable to humans, thus facilitating reciprocal interactions. PMID:24478694

Combined varenicline and naltrexone treatment reduces smoking topography intensity in heavy-drinking smokers.

PubMed

Roche, Daniel J O; Bujarski, Spencer; Hartwell, Emily; Green, ReJoyce; Ray, Lara A

2015-07-01

Heavy drinking smokers constitute a distinct sub-population of smokers for whom traditional smoking cessation therapies may not be effective. Recent evidence suggested that combined varenicline (VAR) and naltrexone (NTX) therapy may be more efficacious than either monotherapy alone in reducing smoking and drinking-related behavior in this population. The manner in which individuals smoke a cigarette (i.e., smoking topography) may be predictive of smoking cessation outcomes, yet the effects of smoking pharmacotherapies on puffing behavior have not been thoroughly examined. Therefore, the current double-blind medication study examined the effects of VAR alone (1mg BID), low dose NTX alone (25mg QD), the combination of VAR+NTX, and placebo on smoking topography measures in heavy drinking, non-treatment seeking daily smokers (n=120). After a 9-day titration period, participants completed a laboratory session in which they smoked their first cigarette of the day using a smoking topography device following 12h of nicotine abstinence and consumption of an alcoholic beverage (BrAC=0.06g/dl). The primary measures were puff count, volume, duration, and velocity and inter-puff interval (IPI). Independent of medication group, puff velocity and IPI increased, while puff volume and duration decreased, over the course of the cigarette. The active medication groups, vs. the placebo group, had significantly blunted puff duration and velocity slopes over the course of the cigarette, and this effect was particularly evident in the VAR+NTX group. Additionally, the VAR+NTX group demonstrated lower average IPI than the monotherapy groups and lower average puff volume than all other groups. These results suggest that smoking pharmacotherapies, particularly the combination of VAR+NTX, alter smoking topography in heavy drinking smokers, producing a pattern of less intense puffing behavior. As smoking topography has been predictive of the ability to quit smoking, future studies should examine how smoking pharmacotherapies' effects on puffing behavior relate to smoking cessation outcomes. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Combined Varenicline and naltrexone treatment reduces smoking topography intensity in heavy-drinking smokers

PubMed Central

Roche, Daniel J.O.; Bujarski, Spencer; Hartwell, Emily; Green, ReJoyce; Ray, Lara A.

2015-01-01

Heavy drinking smokers constitute a distinct sub-population of smokers for whom traditional smoking cessation therapies may not be effective. Recent evidence suggested that combined varenicline (VAR) and naltrexone (NTX) therapy may be more efficacious than either monotherapy alone in reducing smoking and drinking-related behavior in this population. The manner in which individuals smoke a cigarette (i.e., smoking topography) may be predictive of smoking cessation outcomes, yet the effects of smoking pharmacotherapies on puffing behavior have not been thoroughly examined. Therefore, the current double-blind medication study examined the effects of VAR alone (1mg BID), low dose NTX alone (25mg QD), the combination of VAR+NTX, and placebo on smoking topography measures in heavy drinking, non-treatment seeking daily smokers (n=120). After a 9-day titration period, participants completed a laboratory session in which they smoked their first cigarette of the day using a smoking topography device following 12-hrs of nicotine abstinence and consumption of an alcoholic beverage (BrAC = 0.06 g/dl). The primary measures were puff count, volume, duration, and velocity and inter-puff interval (IPI). Independent of medication group, puff velocity and IPI increased, while puff volume and duration decreased, over the course of the cigarette. The active medication groups, vs. the placebo group, had significantly blunted puff duration and velocity slopes over the course of the cigarette, and this effect was particularly evident in the VAR+NTX group. Additionally, the VAR+NTX group demonstrated lower average IPI than the monotherapy groups and lower average puff volume than all other groups. These results suggest that smoking pharmacotherapies, particularly the combination of VAR+NTX, alter smoking topography in heavy drinking smokers, producing a pattern of less intense puffing behavior. As smoking topography has been predictive of the ability to quit smoking, future studies should examine how smoking pharmacotherapies’ effects on puffing behavior relate to smoking cessation outcomes. PMID:25933795

How long did it last? You would better ask a human.

PubMed

Lacquaniti, Francesco; Carrozzo, Mauro; d'Avella, Andrea; La Scaleia, Barbara; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Zago, Myrka

2014-01-01

In the future, human-like robots will live among people to provide company and help carrying out tasks in cooperation with humans. These interactions require that robots understand not only human actions, but also the way in which we perceive the world. Human perception heavily relies on the time dimension, especially when it comes to processing visual motion. Critically, human time perception for dynamic events is often inaccurate. Robots interacting with humans may want to see the world and tell time the way humans do: if so, they must incorporate human-like fallacy. Observers asked to judge the duration of brief scenes are prone to errors: perceived duration often does not match the physical duration of the event. Several kinds of temporal distortions have been described in the specialized literature. Here we review the topic with a special emphasis on our work dealing with time perception of animate actors versus inanimate actors. This work shows the existence of specialized time bases for different categories of targets. The time base used by the human brain to process visual motion appears to be calibrated against the specific predictions regarding the motion of human figures in case of animate motion, while it can be calibrated against the predictions of motion of passive objects in case of inanimate motion. Human perception of time appears to be strictly linked with the mechanisms used to control movements. Thus, neural time can be entrained by external cues in a similar manner for both perceptual judgments of elapsed time and in motor control tasks. One possible strategy could be to implement in humanoids a unique architecture for dealing with time, which would apply the same specialized mechanisms to both perception and action, similarly to humans. This shared implementation might render the humanoids more acceptable to humans, thus facilitating reciprocal interactions.

Laboratory Experiments to Investigate Breakout and Bifurcation of Lava Flows on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, H.; Zimbelman, J. R.; Tokunaga, T.; Tosaka, H.

2001-05-01

Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images show that many lava flows on Mars have morphologies quite similar to aa lava flows. Such flows often have many lobes and branches that overlap each other, making a compound flow unit. These features cannot be explained by any simple flow model because longer effusion duration will simply make the flow longer, although actual lavas often will bifurcate to make additonal flow units. Similarly, formation of a lava tube is difficult to predict by a model that does not contain preset conditions for their formation. Treatment of the surface crust is very important to the flow morphology, especially for effusion over a long duration. To understand the effect of a crust on flow morphology, paraffin wax is especially useful in laboratory experiments. In our experiments, a flow on a constant slope typically progresses with a constant width at first. Then, the flow front cools to form a crust, which inhibits the progress of the flow. At that time, the flow sometimes becomes sinuous or ceases its movement. With a sufficient flux after that, uplift of thickness (inflation) can occur. Uplift sometimes attains a sufficient thickening to produce a breakout at the side of the flow, bifurcating to form a new cooling unit. Bifurcated flows do not always follow the main flow (some branches moved several cm away from the initial flow). The bifurcations continue to develop into a complicated flow field, given a sufficiently long duration of effusion. Although the movement of the flow with a surface crust is difficult to predict, our simple analysis suggests that the maximum thickness attained by the inflation (by fluid continuing to enter a stopped flow) before a breakout can occur is roughly estimated by a balance between the overpressure and the crust tensile strength. The maximum extent of a bifurcated flow after a breakout can probably be constrained, which will be a significant goal for future modeling of compound flows.

Contextual predictability enhances reading performance in patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Fernández, Gerardo; Guinjoan, Salvador; Sapognikoff, Marcelo; Orozco, David; Agamennoni, Osvaldo

2016-07-30

In the present work we analyzed fixation duration in 40 healthy individuals and 18 patients with chronic, stable SZ during reading of regular sentences and proverbs. While they read, their eye movements were recorded. We used lineal mixed models to analyze fixation durations. The predictability of words N-1, N, and N+1 exerted a strong influence on controls and SZ patients. The influence of the predictabilities of preceding, current, and upcoming words on SZ was clearly reduced for proverbs in comparison to regular sentences. Both controls and SZ readers were able to use highly predictable fixated words for an easier reading. Our results suggest that SZ readers might compensate attentional and working memory deficiencies by using stored information of familiar texts for enhancing their reading performance. The predictabilities of words in proverbs serve as task-appropriate cues that are used by SZ readers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using eyetracking for measuring how patients with SZ process well-defined words embedded in regular sentences and proverbs. Evaluation of the resulting changes in fixation durations might provide a useful tool for understanding how SZ patients could enhance their reading performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smoking topography and abstinence in adult female smokers

PubMed Central

McClure, Erin A.; Saladin, Michael E.; Baker, Nathaniel L.; Carpenter, Matthew J.; Gray, Kevin M.

2013-01-01

Preliminary evidence, within both adults and adolescents, suggests that the intensity with which cigarettes are smoked (i.e. smoking topography) is predictive of success during a cessation attempt. These reports have also shown topography to be superior compared to other variables, such as cigarettes per day, in the prediction of abstinence. The possibility that gender may influence this predictive relationship has not been evaluated, but may be clinically useful in tailoring gender-specific interventions. Within the context of a clinical trial for smoking cessation among women, adult daily smokers completed a laboratory session that included a 1-hour ad-libitum smoking period in which measures of topography were collected (N=135). Participants were then randomized to active medication (nicotine patch vs. varenicline) and abstinence was monitored for 4 weeks. Among all smoking topography measures and all abstinence outcomes, a moderate association was found between longer puff duration and greater puff volume and continued smoking during the active 4-week treatment phase, but only within the nicotine patch group. Based on the weak topography-abstinence relationship among female smokers found in the current study, future studies should focus on explicit gender comparisons to examine if these associations are specific to or more robust in male smokers. PMID:24018226

Breast feeding self-efficacy and other determinants of the duration of breast feeding in a cohort of first-time mothers in Adelaide, Australia.

PubMed

Baghurst, Peter; Pincombe, Jan; Peat, Brian; Henderson, Ann; Reddin, Edith; Antoniou, Georgia

2007-12-01

to assess the ability of a Breast-Feeding Self-Efficacy Scale (BSES) score measured at 1 week postpartum to predict the duration of breast-feeding in first-time mothers, and to develop a minimal set of potential confounders, including the BSES and demographic variables, for comparing the apparent effect of other influences on the duration of breast-feeding. a prospective cohort study, with primary outcome the duration of breast feeding up to 6 months postpartum. 317 women who had given birth to their first baby (at term) in a large teaching maternity hospital in Adelaide, South Australia, during the period March to November, 2003. the BSES at 1 week postpartum was a strong predictor of the duration of breast-feeding in these first-time mothers. Its ability to predict the duration of breast-feeding was largely independent of the other factors (intended duration of breast-feeding, mother's level of education, country of birth, housing situation, smoking status and method of delivery), which were also found to be significant predictors of breast-feeding duration. the BSES (including a new short form version) has been confirmed by our study as an important instrument for identifying women at risk of early cessation of breast-feeding. Together with other demographic variables, it should be useful for targeting limited resources to those most in need.

Predicting Low Flow Conditions from Climatic Indices - Indicator-Based Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

2014-05-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of future hydrological regimes has become indispensable in the field of water resources management. Investigation of potential change is vital for proper planning, especially with regard to hydrological extremes. Commonly, projection of future streamflow is done applying process-based hydrological models, using climate model data as input, whose complex model structures generally require excessive amounts of time and effort for set-up and computation. This study aims at identifying practical alternatives to the employment of sophisticated models by considering simpler, yet sufficiently accurate methods for modeling rainfall-runoff relations with regard to hydrological extremes. The focus is thereby put on the prediction of low flow periods, which are, in contrast to flood events, characterized by extended durations and spatial dimensions. The models to be established in this study base on indicators, which characterize both meteorological and hydrological conditions within dry periods. This approach makes direct use of the coupling between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response with the underlying presumption that low-precipitation and high-evaporation periods result in diminished flow, implying that relationships exist between the properties of both meteorological and hydrological events (duration, volume, severity etc.). Eventually, optimal combinations of meteorological indicators are sought that are suitable to predict various low flow characteristics with satisfactory accuracy. Two approaches for model specification are tested: a) multiple linear regression, and b) Fuzzy logic. The data used for this study are daily time series of mean discharge obtained from 294 gauges with variable record length situated in the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany, as well as interpolated climate variables available for a period from 1951 to 2011. After extraction of a variety of indicators from the available discharge and climate time series on a bi-annual basis, regression and Fuzzy models are fit. Fitting is done in two variations: locally at each of the watersheds in the study area, and regionally, yielding one specific model expression for the entire study area. Models for the individual stations perform well using only the meteorological indicators as predictor variables, while the regional models require the additional input of catchment descriptors to account for the variability of the rainfall-runoff translation processes between the catchments.

Dietary specialization is linked to reduced species durations in North American fossil canids

PubMed Central

Casey, Corinna; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2018-01-01

How traits influence species persistence is a fundamental question in ecology, evolution and palaeontology. We test the relationship between dietary traits and both species duration and locality coverage over 40 million years in North American canids, a clade with considerable ecomorphological disparity and a dense fossil record. Because ecomorphological generalization—broad resource use—may enable species to withstand disturbance, we predicted that canids of average size and mesocarnivory would exhibit longer durations and wider distributions than specialized larger or smaller species. Second, because locality coverage might reflect dispersal ability and/or survivability in a range of habitats, we predicted that high coverage would correspond with longer durations. We find a nonlinear relationship between species duration and degree of carnivory: species at either end of the carnivory spectrum tend to have shorter durations than mesocarnivores. Locality coverage shows no relationship with size, diet or duration. To test whether generalization (medium size, mesocarnivory) corresponds to an adaptive optimum, we fit trait evolution models to previously generated canid phylogenies. Our analyses identify no single optimum in size or diet. Instead, the primary model of size evolution is a classic Cope's Rule increase over time, while dietary evolution does not conform to a single model. PMID:29765649

Future export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon from land to coastal zones of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strååt, Kim Dahlgren; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Undeman, Emma

2018-01-01

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed brackish sea in Northern Europe with a drainage basin four times larger than the sea itself. Riverine organic carbon (Particulate Organic Carbon, POC and Dissolved Organic Carbon, DOC) dominates carbon input to the Baltic Sea and influences both land-to-sea transport of nutrients and contaminants, and hence the functioning of the coastal ecosystem. The potential impact of future climate change on loads of POC and DOC in the Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) was assessed using a hydrological-biogeochemical model (CSIM). The changes in annual and seasonal concentrations and loads of both POC and DOC by the end of this century were predicted using three climate change scenarios and compared to the current state. In all scenarios, overall increasing DOC loads, but unchanged POC loads, were projected in the north. In the southern part of the BSDB, predicted DOC loads were not significantly changing over time, although POC loads decreased in all scenarios. The magnitude and significance of the trends varied with scenario but the sign (+ or -) of the projected trends for the entire simulation period never conflicted. Results were discussed in detail for the "middle" CO2 emission scenario (business as usual, a1b). On an annual and entire drainage basin scale, the total POC load was projected to decrease by ca 7% under this scenario, mainly due to reduced riverine primary production in the southern parts of the BSDB. The average total DOC load was not predicted to change significantly between years 2010 and 2100 due to counteracting decreasing and increasing trends of DOC loads to the six major sub-basins in the Baltic Sea. However, predicted seasonal total loads of POC and DOC increased significantly by ca 46% and 30% in winter and decreased by 8% and 21% in summer over time, respectively. For POC the change in winter loads was a consequence of increasing soil erosion and a shift in duration of snowfall and onset of the spring flood impacting the input of terrestrial litter, while reduced primary production mainly explained the differences predicted in summer. The simulations also showed that future changes in POC and DOC export can vary significantly across the different sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. These changes in organic carbon input may impact future coastal food web structures e.g. by influencing bacterial and phytoplankton production in coastal zones, which in turn may have consequences at higher trophic levels.

Temporal Dependency and the Structure of Early Looking.

PubMed

Messinger, Daniel S; Mattson, Whitney I; Todd, James Torrence; Gangi, Devon N; Myers, Nicholas D; Bahrick, Lorraine E

2017-01-01

Although looking time is used to assess infant perceptual and cognitive processing, little is known about the temporal structure of infant looking. To shed light on this temporal structure, 127 three-month-olds were assessed in an infant-controlled habituation procedure and presented with a pre-recorded display of a woman addressing the infant using infant-directed speech. Previous individual look durations positively predicted subsequent look durations over a six look window, suggesting a temporal dependency between successive infant looks. The previous look duration continued to predict the subsequent look duration after accounting for habituation-linked declines in look duration, and when looks were separated by an inter-trial interval in which no stimulus was displayed. Individual differences in temporal dependency, the strength of associations between consecutive look durations, are distinct from individual differences in mean infant look duration. Nevertheless, infants with stronger temporal dependency had briefer mean look durations, a potential index of stimulus processing. Temporal dependency was evident not only between individual infant looks but between the durations of successive habituation trials (total looking within a trial). Finally, temporal dependency was evident in associations between the last look at the habituation stimulus and the first look at a novel test stimulus. Thus temporal dependency was evident across multiple timescales (individual looks and trials comprised of multiple individual looks) and persisted across conditions including brief periods of no stimulus presentation and changes from a familiar to novel stimulus. Associations between consecutive look durations over multiple timescales and stimuli suggest a temporal structure of infant attention that has been largely ignored in previous work on infant looking.

Temporal Dependency and the Structure of Early Looking

PubMed Central

Messinger, Daniel S.; Mattson, Whitney I.; Todd, James Torrence; Gangi, Devon N.; Myers, Nicholas D.; Bahrick, Lorraine E.

2017-01-01

Although looking time is used to assess infant perceptual and cognitive processing, little is known about the temporal structure of infant looking. To shed light on this temporal structure, 127 three-month-olds were assessed in an infant-controlled habituation procedure and presented with a pre-recorded display of a woman addressing the infant using infant-directed speech. Previous individual look durations positively predicted subsequent look durations over a six look window, suggesting a temporal dependency between successive infant looks. The previous look duration continued to predict the subsequent look duration after accounting for habituation-linked declines in look duration, and when looks were separated by an inter-trial interval in which no stimulus was displayed. Individual differences in temporal dependency, the strength of associations between consecutive look durations, are distinct from individual differences in mean infant look duration. Nevertheless, infants with stronger temporal dependency had briefer mean look durations, a potential index of stimulus processing. Temporal dependency was evident not only between individual infant looks but between the durations of successive habituation trials (total looking within a trial). Finally, temporal dependency was evident in associations between the last look at the habituation stimulus and the first look at a novel test stimulus. Thus temporal dependency was evident across multiple timescales (individual looks and trials comprised of multiple individual looks) and persisted across conditions including brief periods of no stimulus presentation and changes from a familiar to novel stimulus. Associations between consecutive look durations over multiple timescales and stimuli suggest a temporal structure of infant attention that has been largely ignored in previous work on infant looking. PMID:28076362

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-04-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-07-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Work-Family Conflict and Employee Sleep: Evidence from IT Workers in the Work, Family and Health Study.

PubMed

Buxton, Orfeu M; Lee, Soomi; Beverly, Chloe; Berkman, Lisa F; Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin L; Hammer, Leslie B; Almeida, David M

2016-10-01

Work-family conflict is a threat to healthy sleep behaviors among employees. This study aimed to examine how Work-to-Family Conflict (demands from work that interfere with one's family/personal life; WTFC) and Family-to-Work Conflict (demands from family/personal life that interfere with work; FTWC) are associated with several dimensions of sleep among information technology workers. Employees at a U.S. IT firm (n = 799) provided self-reports of sleep sufficiency (feeling rested upon waking), sleep quality, and sleep maintenance insomnia symptoms (waking up in the middle of the night or early morning) in the last month. They also provided a week of actigraphy for nighttime sleep duration, napping, sleep timing, and a novel sleep inconsistency measure. Analyses adjusted for work conditions (job demands, decision authority, schedule control, and family-supportive supervisor behavior), and household and sociodemographic characteristics. Employees who experienced higher WTFC reported less sleep sufficiency, poorer sleep quality, and more insomnia symptoms. Higher WTFC also predicted shorter nighttime sleep duration, greater likelihood of napping, and longer nap duration. Furthermore, higher WTFC was linked to greater inconsistency of nighttime sleep duration and sleep clock times, whereas higher FTWC was associated with more rigidity of sleep timing mostly driven by wake time. Results highlight the unique associations of WTFC/FTWC with employee sleep independent of other work conditions and household and sociodemographic characteristics. Our novel methodological approach demonstrates differential associations of WTFC and FTWC with inconsistency of sleep timing. Given the strong associations between WTFC and poor sleep, future research should focus on reducing WTFC. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

SU-D-BRA-01: Feasibility Study for Swallowing Prediction Using Pressure Sensors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, M; Kim, T; Kim, D

2016-06-15

Purpose: To develop a swallowing prediction system (SPS) using force sensing sensors and evaluate its feasibility. Methods: The SPS developed consists of force sensing sensor units, a thermoplastic mask, a signal transport device and a control PC installed with an in-house software. The SPS is designed to predict the pharyngeal stage of swallowing because it is known that internal organ movement occurs in pharyngeal stage. To detect prediction signal in the SPS, the force sensing sensor units were attached on both the submental muscle region and thyroid cartilage region of the thermoplastic mask. While the signal from the thyroid cartilagemore » region informs the action of swallowing, the signal from the submental muscle region is utilized as a precursor for swallowing. Since the duration of swallowing is relatively short, using such precursor (or warning) signals for machine control is considered more beneficial. A volunteer study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of the system. In this volunteer study, we intended to verify that the system could predict the pharyngeal stage of the swallowing. We measured time gaps between obtaining the warning signals in the SPS and starting points of the pharyngeal stage of swallowing. Results: The measured data was examined whether the time gaps were in reasonable order to be easily utilized. The mean and standard deviation values of these time gaps were 0.550 s ± 0.183 s. in 8 volunteers. Conclusion: The proposed method was able to predict the on-set of swallowing of human subjects inside the thermoplastic mask, which has never been possible with other monitoring systems such as camera-based monitoring system. With the prediction ability of swallowing incorporated into the machine control mechanism (in the future), beam delivery can be controlled to skip swallowing periods and significant dosimetric gain is expected in head & neck cancer treatments. This work was supported by the Radiation Technology R&D program (No. 2015M2A2A7038291) and by the Mid-career Researcher Program (2014R1A2A1A10050270) through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT&Future Planning.« less

Infant pain-related negative affect at 12 months of age: early infant and caregiver predictors.

PubMed

Din Osmun, Laila; Pillai Riddell, Rebecca; Flora, David B

2014-01-01

To examine the predictive relationships of early infant and caregiver variables on expressed pain-related negative affect duration at the 12-month immunization. Infants and their caregivers (N = 255) were followed during immunization appointments over the first year of life. Latent growth curve modeling in a structural equation modeling context was used. Higher levels of initial infant pain reactivity at 2 months and caregiver emotional availability averaged across 2, 4, and 6 months of age were related to larger decreases in the duration of infant negative affect over the first 6 months of life. Longer duration of infant negative affect at 2 months and poorer regulation of infant negative affect over the first 6 months of life predicted longer durations of infant negative affect by 12 months. Infant negative affect at 12 months was a function of both infant factors and the quality of caregiver interactive behaviors (emotional availability) in early infancy.

Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corn, S.

2002-05-01

Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

The progression rate of spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 changes with stage of disease.

PubMed

Monte, Thais Lampert; Reckziegel, Estela da Rosa; Augustin, Marina Coutinho; Locks-Coelho, Lucas D; Santos, Amanda Senna P; Furtado, Gabriel Vasata; de Mattos, Eduardo Preusser; Pedroso, José Luiz; Barsottini, Orlando Póvoas; Vargas, Fernando Regla; Saraiva-Pereira, Maria-Luiza; Camey, Suzi Alves; Leotti, Vanessa Bielefeldt; Jardim, Laura Bannach

2018-01-25

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 (SCA2) affects several neurological structures, giving rise to multiple symptoms. However, only the natural history of ataxia is well known, as measured during the study duration. We aimed to describe the progression rate of ataxia, by the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA), as well as the progression rate of the overall neurological picture, by the Neurological Examination Score for Spinocerebellar Ataxias (NESSCA), and not only during the study duration but also in a disease duration model. Comparisons between these models might allow us to explore whether progression is linear during the disease duration in SCA2; and to look for potential modifiers. Eighty-eight evaluations were prospectively done on 49 symptomatic subjects; on average (SD), study duration and disease duration models covered 13 (2.16) months and 14 (6.66) years of individuals' life, respectively. SARA progressed 1.75 (CI 95%: 0.92-2.57) versus 0.79 (95% CI 0.45 to 1.14) points/year in the study duration and disease duration models. NESSCA progressed 1.45 (CI 95%: 0.74-2.16) versus 0.41 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.59) points/year in the same models. In order to explain these discrepancies, the progression rates of the study duration model were plotted against disease duration. Then an acceleration was detected after 10 years of disease duration: SARA scores progressed 0.35 before and 2.45 points/year after this deadline (p = 0.013). Age at onset, mutation severity, and presence of amyotrophy, parkinsonism, dystonic manifestations and cognitive decline at baseline did not influence the rate of disease progression. NESSCA and SARA progression rates were not constant during disease duration in SCA2: early phases of disease were associated with slower progressions. Modelling of future clinical trials on SCA2 should take this phenomenon into account, since disease duration might impact on inclusion criteria, sample size, and study duration. Our database is available online and accessible to future studies aimed to compare the present data with other cohorts.

Risk assessment models to predict caries recurrence after oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia: a pilot study.

PubMed

Lin, Yai-Tin; Kalhan, Ashish Chetan; Lin, Yng-Tzer Joseph; Kalhan, Tosha Ashish; Chou, Chein-Chin; Gao, Xiao Li; Hsu, Chin-Ying Stephen

2018-05-08

Oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia (GA), commonly employed to treat high caries-risk children, has been associated with high economic and individual/family burden, besides high post-GA caries recurrence rates. As there is no caries prediction model available for paediatric GA patients, this study was performed to build caries risk assessment/prediction models using pre-GA data and to explore mid-term prognostic factors for early identification of high-risk children prone to caries relapse post-GA oral rehabilitation. Ninety-two children were identified and recruited with parental consent before oral rehabilitation under GA. Biopsychosocial data collection at baseline and the 6-month follow-up were conducted using questionnaire (Q), microbiological assessment (M) and clinical examination (C). The prediction models constructed using data collected from Q, Q + M and Q + M + C demonstrated an accuracy of 72%, 78% and 82%, respectively. Furthermore, of the 83 (90.2%) patients recalled 6 months after GA intervention, recurrent caries was identified in 54.2%, together with reduced bacterial counts, lower plaque index and increased percentage of children toothbrushing for themselves (all P < 0.05). Additionally, meal-time and toothbrushing duration were shown, through bivariate analyses, to be significant prognostic determinants for caries recurrence (both P < 0.05). Risk assessment/prediction models built using pre-GA data may be promising in identifying high-risk children prone to post-GA caries recurrence, although future internal and external validation of predictive models is warranted. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.

Countdown to the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng-Campbell, Meg; Scott, Ryan T.; Torres, Samantha; Murray, Matthew; Moyer, Eric

2017-01-01

At the NASA Ames Research Center in California, the next generation of space biologists are working to understand the effects of long duration space flight on model organisms, and are developing ways to protect the health of future astronauts.

Chronic disease and lifestyle factors associated with change in sleep duration among older adults in the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

PubMed

Smagula, Stephen F; Koh, Woon-Puay; Wang, Renwei; Yuan, Jian-Min

2016-02-01

Identifying risk factors for future change in sleep duration can clarify whether, and if so how, sleep and morbidity are bidirectionally related. To date, only limited longitudinal evidence exists characterizing changes to sleep duration among older adults. This study aimed to identify factors associated with change in sleep duration in a large sample of older adults (≥ 60 years) residing in Singapore (n = 10 335). These adults were monitored as part of the Singapore Chinese Health Study, which collected information regarding daily sleep duration at baseline (assessed in 1993-1998) and at a follow-up wave conducted over a mean of 12.7 years later (assessed in 2006-2010). Among adults sleeping 6-8 h at baseline (n = 8265), most participants (55.6%) remained 6-8 h sleepers at follow-up, while 8.4% became short (< 6 h) and 36.0% became long (> 8 h) sleepers. A history of stroke, diabetes, cancer, hip fracture and greater age all independently increased the odds of having long sleep duration at follow-up, while greater educational attainment and weekly physical activity were both associated with reduced odds of becoming a long sleeper. Other than greater baseline age, the only factor related to higher odds of becoming a short sleeper was concurrent stomach/duodenal ulcer at follow-up. Long sleep duration among older adults may therefore reflect longstanding disease processes, whereas the aetiology of short sleep may predominately involve factors other than those examined. Future research is needed to distinguish if/when long sleep duration serves the disease recovery process, and when long sleep duration complicates disease and requires sleep medicine interventions. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.

Accuracy of self-reported sleep parameters compared with actigraphy in young people with mental ill-health.

PubMed

Biddle, Daniel J; Robillard, Rébecca; Hermens, Daniel F; Hickie, Ian B; Glozier, Nicholas

2015-09-01

Validation of self-report assessment of habitual sleep duration and onset time in young people with mental ill-health. Validation sample. Specialized early intervention centers for young people in Sydney, Australia. One hundred and forty-six young people with mental ill-health. N/A. Self-reported habitual sleep duration and onset time were compared against at least 7 days of actigraphy monitoring. Average bias in and calibration of subjective measures were assessed, along with correlation of subjective and objective measures. Differences by age, sex, mental-disorder type, and reported insomnia were also explored. On average, subjective estimates of sleep were unbiased. Overall, each additional hour of objective habitual sleep duration predicted 41 minutes more subjective habitual sleep duration, and each hour later objective habitual sleep onset occurred predicted a 43-minute later subjective habitual sleep onset. There were subgroup differences: subjective habitual sleep duration in self-reported insomnia was shorter than objective duration by 30 minutes (SD = 119), on average. Calibration of habitual sleep duration was worse for those with mood disorders than with other primary diagnoses (t = -2.39, P = .018). Correlation between subjective and objective measures was strong for sleep onset time (Á = .667, P < .001) and moderate for sleep duration (r = .332, P < .001). For the mood disorder group, subjective and objective sleep durations were uncorrelated. Self-reports seem valid for large-scale studies of habitual sleep duration and onset in help-seeking young people, but assessment of habitual sleep duration requires objective measures where individual accuracy is important. Copyright © 2015 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralph, F.M.; Coleman, T.; Neiman, P.J.; Zamora, R.J.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

This study is motivated by diverse needs for better forecasts of extreme precipitation and floods. It is enabled by unique hourly observations collected over six years near California’s Russian River and by recent advances in the science of atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study fills key gaps limiting the prediction of ARs and, especially, their impacts by quantifying the duration of AR conditions and the role of duration in modulating hydrometeorological impacts. Precursor soil moisture conditions and their relationship to streamflow are also shown. On the basis of 91 well-observed events during 2004-10, the study shows that the passage of ARs over a coastal site lasted 20 h on average and that 12% of the AR events exceeded 30 h. Differences in storm-total water vapor transport directed up the mountain slope contribute 74% of the variance in storm-total rainfall across the events and 61% of the variance in storm-total runoff volume. ARs with double the composite mean duration produced nearly 6 times greater peak streamflow and more than 7 times the storm-total runoff volume. When precursor soil moisture was less than 20%, even heavy rainfall did not lead to significant streamflow. Predicting which AR events are likely to produce extreme impacts on precipitation and runoff requires accurate prediction of AR duration at landfall and observations of precursor soil moisture conditions.

Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger

2014-01-01

The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

Electroconvulsive therapy in treatment-resistant schizophrenia: prediction of response and the nature of symptomatic improvement.

PubMed

Chanpattana, Worrawat; Sackeim, Harold A

2010-12-01

The clinical features of patients with schizophrenia who respond to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) are uncertain. There is a longstanding belief that the duration of illness and/or the presence of affective symptoms associate with good prognosis. There is also little information on the nature of symptomatic improvement with this treatment. We examined the demographic and clinical history features associated with response, the symptom profile predictive of response, and the profile of symptomatic improvement. Using a standardized protocol, 253 patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were prospectively treated with a combination of ECT and flupenthixol. Of this group, 138 patients (54.5%) met the response criteria. Independence of sex, longer duration of current episode, and greater severity of baseline negative symptoms were predictive of poorer outcome. Duration of illness had weak relations with outcome only among females. There were marked sex differences in other clinical features and symptoms associated with response. In contrast, no sex differences were observed in the nature of symptomatic improvement. Treatment resulted in marked improvement in specific positive symptoms, with an intermediate effect on affective symptoms and no effect or worsening of specific negative symptoms. The findings challenge recommendations that long duration of illness or absence of affective symptoms portends poor response to ECT in patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Sex may play a critical role in determining the features of the illness that predict outcome.

Effects of load and maintenance duration on the time course of information encoding and retrieval in working memory: from perceptual analysis to post-categorization processes.

PubMed

Pinal, Diego; Zurrón, Montserrat; Díaz, Fernando

2014-01-01

information encoding, maintenance, and retrieval; these are supported by brain activity in a network of frontal, parietal and temporal regions. Manipulation of WM load and duration of the maintenance period can modulate this activity. Although such modulations have been widely studied using the event-related potentials (ERP) technique, a precise description of the time course of brain activity during encoding and retrieval is still required. Here, we used this technique and principal component analysis to assess the time course of brain activity during encoding and retrieval in a delayed match to sample task. We also investigated the effects of memory load and duration of the maintenance period on ERP activity. Brain activity was similar during information encoding and retrieval and comprised six temporal factors, which closely matched the latency and scalp distribution of some ERP components: P1, N1, P2, N2, P300, and a slow wave. Changes in memory load modulated task performance and yielded variations in frontal lobe activation. Moreover, the P300 amplitude was smaller in the high than in the low load condition during encoding and retrieval. Conversely, the slow wave amplitude was higher in the high than in the low load condition during encoding, and the same was true for the N2 amplitude during retrieval. Thus, during encoding, memory load appears to modulate the processing resources for context updating and post-categorization processes, and during retrieval it modulates resources for stimulus classification and context updating. Besides, despite the lack of differences in task performance related to duration of the maintenance period, larger N2 amplitude and stronger activation of the left temporal lobe after long than after short maintenance periods were found during information retrieval. Thus, results regarding the duration of maintenance period were complex, and future work is required to test the time-based decay theory predictions.

A randomized comparison study regarding the impact of short-duration, high-intensity exercise and traditional exercise on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in post-menopausal women--A pilot study.

PubMed

Grossman, Joan A Cebrick; Payne, Ellen K

2016-03-01

The mode and duration of exercise necessary to change body composition and reduce weight remains debatable. Menopause results in hormonal changes that preclude weight loss. This randomized pilot study compared the effects of short-duration, high-intensity interval training and traditional exercise on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in post-menopausal women. To compare the effects of short-duration, high-intensity interval training and traditional methods of exercise (walking) on anthropometric, body composition and body weight change over a 12-week period. Subjects (N = 18) were post-menopausal, sedentary female volunteers, randomly assigned into one of two exercise groups. Both groups exercised five out of seven days for 12 weeks. The resistance group (n = 8) (54.3 ± 7.3 years; BMI = 28.0 ± 2.1 kg/m(2); mean ± SD) exercised for 15.0 ± 3.5 min, which consisted of five different exercise routines including upper and lower extremity, a cardio segment, yoga and abdominal exercises. The walkers (n = 10) (56.6 ± 5.2 years; BMI = 29.2 ± 2.6 kg/m(2); mean ± SD) exercised for 40.0 ± 5.0 min at 65% of their age-predicted maximum heart rate. Relative (%) body fat was measured via DEXA scan, along with five anthropometric measurements, all of which were taken prior to and after 12 weeks. Independent sample t-tests were probed for differences, p ≤ 0.05. No statistically significant changes were determined between the groups for pre-and post-measurements. The outcomes of this study provide a foundation for future comparisons of short-duration high-intensity interval training exercise and traditional exercise, or walking, on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in sedentary, overweight, post-menopausal females over a 12-week period. © The Author(s) 2016.

Analysis of impact/impulse noise for predicting noise induced hearing loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vipperman, Jeffrey S.; Prince, Mary M.; Flamm, Angela M.

2003-04-01

Studies indicate that the statistical properties and temporal structure of the sound signal are important in determining the extent of hearing hazard. As part of a pilot study to examine hearing conservation program effectiveness, NIOSH collected noise samples of impact noise sources in an automobile stamping plant, focusing on jobs with peak sound levels (Lpk) of greater than 120 dB. Digital tape recordings of sounds were collected using a Type I Precision Sound Level Meter and microphone connected to a DAT tape recorder. The events were archived and processed as .wav files to extract single events of interest on CD-R media and CD audio media. A preliminary analysis of sample wavelet files was conducted to characterize each event using metrics such as the number of impulses per unit time, the repetition rate or temporal pattern of these impulses, index of peakedness, crest factor, kurtosis, coefficient of kurtosis, rise time, fall time, and peak time. The spectrum, duration, and inverse of duration for each waveform were also computed. Finally, the data were evaluated with the Auditory Hazard Assessment Algorithm (AHAAH). Improvements to data collection for a future study examining different strategies for evaluating industrial noise exposure will be discussed.

Specific Factors Influence Postconcussion Symptom Duration among Youth Referred to a Sports Concussion Clinic.

PubMed

Heyer, Geoffrey L; Schaffer, Caroline E; Rose, Sean C; Young, Julie A; McNally, Kelly A; Fischer, Anastasia N

2016-07-01

To identify the clinical factors that influence the duration of postconcussion symptoms among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate several potential predictors of symptom duration via a Cox proportional hazards analyses. The individual postconcussion symptom scores were highly correlated, so these symptoms were analyzed in the statistical model as coefficients derived from principal component analyses. Among 1953 youth with concussion, 1755 (89.9%) had dates of reported symptom resolution. The remainder (10.1%) were lost to follow-up and censored. The median time to recovery was 18 days (range 1-353 days). By 30 days, 72.6% had recovered; by 60 days, 91.4% had recovered; and by 90 days, 96.8% had recovered. Several variables in a multivariate Cox model predicted postconcussion symptom duration: female sex (P < .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28), continued activity participation (P = .02, HR = 1.13), loss of consciousness (P = .03, HR = 1.18), anterograde amnesia (P = .04, HR = 1.15), premorbid headaches (P = .03, HR = 1.15), symptom components from the day of concussion (emotion, P = .03, HR = 1.08), and the day of clinic evaluation (cognitive-fatigue, P < .001, HR = 1.22; cephalalgic, P < .001, HR = 1.27; emotional, P = .05, HR = 1.08; arousal-stimulation, P = .003, HR = 1.1). In univariate analyses, greater symptom scores generally predicted longer symptom durations. Worsening of symptoms from the day of concussion to the day of clinic evaluation also predicted longer recovery (P < .001, HR = 1.59). Several factors help to predict protracted postconcussion symptom durations among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Results from the Joint US/Russian Sensory-Motor Investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

In this session, Session FA3, the discussion focuses on the following topics: The Effect of Long Duration Space Flight on the Acquisition of Predictable Targets in Three Dimensional Space; Effects of Microgravity on Spinal Reflex Mechanisms; Three Dimensional Head Movement Control During Locomotion After Long-Duration Space Flight; Human Body Shock Wave Transmission Properties After Long Duration Space Flight; Adaptation of Neuromuscular Activation Patterns During Locomotion After Long Duration Space Flight; Balance Control Deficits Following Long-Duration Space Flight; Influence of Weightlessness on Postural Muscular Activity Coordination; and The Use of Inflight Foot Pressure as a Countermeasure to Neuromuscular Degradation.

Effects of increased flooding on riparian vegetation: Field experiments simulating climate change along five European lowland streams.

PubMed

Garssen, Annemarie G; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Riis, Tenna; Raven, Bart M; Hoffman, Carl Christian; Verhoeven, Jos T A; Soons, Merel B

2017-08-01

In many parts of the world, the magnitude and frequency of cold-season precipitation are expected to increase in the near future. This will result in an increased magnitude and duration of winter and spring flooding by rain-fed streams and rivers. Such climate-driven increases in flooding are likely to affect riparian plant communities, but future vegetation changes are hard to predict due to current lack of data. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally modified the hydrology of five streams across three countries in north-western Europe during late winter/early spring over a period of 3 years. We assessed the responses in riparian plant species richness, biomass, plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus and seed deposition to increased flooding depth (+18 cm on average at the lowest positions along the riparian gradient) and prolonged flooding duration (6 weeks on average). After 3 years of increased flooding, there was an overall decline in riparian species richness, while riparian plant biomass increased. Extractable soil nitrogen and phosphorus also increased and are likely to have contributed to the increased biomass. Increased flooding resulted in the arrival of more seeds of additional species to the riparian zone, thereby potentially facilitating the shifts in riparian plant species composition we observed. The results of our concerted experimental effort demonstrate that changes in stream riparian plant communities can occur rapidly following increased winter flooding, leading to strong reductions in plant species diversity. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment.

PubMed

Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Hoerauf, Achim; Habbema, Dik; Bakker, Roel; Hopkins, Adrian D; de Vlas, Sake J

2014-01-01

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

PubMed Central

Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

Collaborative play in young children as a complex dynamic system: revealing gender related differences.

PubMed

Steenbeek, Henderien; van der Aalsvoort, Diny; van Geert, Paul

2014-07-01

This study was focused on the role of gender-related differences in collaborative play, by examining properties of play as a complex system, and by using micro-genetic analysis techniques. A complex dynamic systems model of dyadic play was used to make predictions with regard to duration and number of contact-episodes during play of same-sex dyads, both on the micro- (i.e., per individual session), meso- (i.e., in smoothed data), and macro time scale (i.e., the change over six consecutive play sessions). The empirical data came from a study that examined the collaborative play skills of children who experienced six twenty minute play sessions within a three week period of time. Monte Carlo permutation analyses were used to compare model predictions and empirical data. The findings point to strongly asymmetric distributions in the duration and number of contact episodes in all dyads over the six sessions, as a direct consequence of the underlying dynamics of the play system. The model prediction that girls-dyads would show longer contact episodes than boys-dyads was confirmed, but the prediction regarding the difference in number of peaks was not confirmed. In addition, the majority of the model predictions regarding changes over the course of six sessions were consistent with the data. That is, the average duration and the maximum duration of contact-episodes increases both in boys-dyads and girls-dyads, but differences occur in the strength of the increase. Contrary to expectation, the number of contact-episodes decreases both in boys-dyads and in girls-dyads.

[The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in children].

PubMed

Jin, Yan-Yan; Liang, Li; Fu, Jun-Fen; Wang, Xiu-Min

2011-02-01

To investigate the incident and prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prediabetes in obese children in the last ten years. The clinical data of hospitalized children with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM) or obesity between October 2000 and September 2011 were retrospectively studied. A total of 503 newly onset cases were diagnosed as DM in the past ten years, of which 31 were diagnosed as T2DM. The prevalence of T2DM in the second five-year duration increased significantly compared with that in the first five-year duration (0.18‰ vs 0.05‰; P<0.01). The number of cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM increased by 1.35 fold and 4.20 fold, respectively in the second five-year duration. A total of 1301 obese patients received oral glucose tolerance tests, and 29 cases were diagnosed with T2DM and 255 cases with prediabetes. Of the 255 cases of prediabetes, 133 had dyslipidemia, 138 had non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and 53 had hypertension. The prevalence rates of T1DM and T2DM increased significantly in the last 5 years. The prevalence of T2DM increased more significantly than T1DM. There was a higher prevalence of prediabetes in obese children. Childhood obesity predicts a higher risk of T2DM and cardiovascular disease in the future.

Effect of walking velocity on ground reaction force variables in the hind limb of clinically normal horses.

PubMed

Khumsap, S; Clayton, H M; Lanovaz, J L

2001-06-01

To measure the effect of subject velocity on hind limb ground reaction force variables at the walk and to use the data to predict the force variables at different walking velocities in horses. 5 clinically normal horses. Kinematic and force data were collected simultaneously. Each horse was led over a force plate at a range of walking velocities. Stance duration and force data were recorded for the right hind limb. To avoid the effect of horse size on the outcome variables, the 8 force variables were standardized to body mass and height at the shoulders. Velocity was standardized to height at the shoulders and expressed as velocity in dimensionless units (VDU). Stance duration was also expressed in dimensionless units (SDU). Simple regression analysis was performed, using stance duration and force variables as dependent variables and VDU as the independent variable. Fifty-six trials were recorded with velocities ranging from 0.24 to 0.45 VDU (0.90 to 1.72 m/s). Simple regression models between measured variables and VDU were significant (R2 > 0.69) for SDU, first peak of vertical force, dip between the 2 vertical force peaks, vertical impulse, and timing of second peak of vertical force. Subject velocity affects vertical force components only. In the future, differences between the forces measured in lame horses and the expected forces calculated for the same velocity will be studied to determine whether the equations can be used as diagnostic criteria.

Ciprofloxacin Resistance and Gonorrhea Incidence Rates in 17 Cities, United States, 1991–2006

PubMed Central

Kirkcaldy, Robert D.; Gift, Thomas L.; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Weinstock, Hillard S.

2014-01-01

Antimicrobial drug resistance can hinder gonorrhea prevention and control efforts. In this study, we analyzed historical ciprofloxacin resistance data and gonorrhea incidence data to examine the possible effect of antimicrobial drug resistance on gonorrhea incidence at the population level. We analyzed data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project and city-level gonorrhea incidence rates from surveillance data for 17 cities during 1991–2006. We found a strong positive association between ciprofloxacin resistance and gonorrhea incidence rates at the city level during this period. Their association was consistent with predictions of mathematical models in which resistance to treatment can increase gonorrhea incidence rates through factors such as increased duration of infection. These findings highlight the possibility of future increases in gonorrhea incidence caused by emerging cephalosporin resistance. PMID:24655615

Current Log-Periodic View on Future World Market Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drożdż, S.; Kwapień, J.; Oświęcimka, P.; Speth, J.

2008-09-01

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin.

Heat waves in Portugal: Current regime, changes in future climate and impacts on extreme wildfires.

PubMed

Parente, J; Pereira, M G; Amraoui, M; Fischer, E M

2018-08-01

Heat waves (HW) can have devastating social, economic and environmental impacts. Together with long-term drought, they are the main factors contributing to wildfires. Surprisingly, the quantitative and objective analysis leading to the identification and characterization of HW in current and future climate conditions as well as its influence on the occurrence of extreme wildfires (EW) has never been performed for Portugal and are the main objectives of this study. For this reason, we assess HW in recent past and future climate based on a consistent high resolution meteorological database and have compared their occurrence with long and reliable, precise and detailed information about Portuguese fire events. Results include the characterization of HW frequency, duration, seasonality and intensity for current and different future climate conditions and their relationship with EW occurrence. We detected 130 HW between 1981 and 2010, concentrated between May and October and highest values in July and August. The highest HW number and duration is found over the Northeast corner and the south of the country while highest amplitudes are typically located in central area. HW characteristics present high inter-annual variability but are clearly associated to the temporal and spatial distribution of EW: 97% of total number of EW were active during an HW, 90% of total EW days were also HW days; 82% of the EW had duration completely contained in the duration of an HW; and, 83% of EW occurred during and in the area affected by HW. Our results also show that HW should increase in number, duration and amplitude, more significantly for RCP 8.5, and for the 30-year periods near the end of the 21st century. Findings of this study will support the definition of climate change adaptation strategies for fire danger and risk management. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Longitudinal associations between time spent using technology and sleep duration among adolescents.

PubMed

Mazzer, K; Bauducco, S; Linton, S J; Boersma, K

2018-07-01

Technology use has been the focus of much concern for adolescents' sleep health. However, few studies have investigated the bidirectional association between sleep duration and time spent using technology. The aim of this study was to test whether time spent using technology predicted shorter sleep duration, and/or vice versa using cross-lagged analyses over one year. Participants were 1620 high school students in the 8th and 9th grade at baseline from 17 public schools in three middle Sweden communities. Students completed questionnaires at school during the spring of 2015 and 2016. Time spent using technology was self-reported and sleep duration was calculated from reported bed-times, wake-times and sleep onset latency. Time spent using technology significantly predicted shorter subsequent sleep duration and vice versa. Public health advocates educating others about the negative impacts of technology on sleep must also be mindful of the opposite, that many young people may turn to technological devices when experiencing difficulty sleeping. Copyright © 2018 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Androgen Deprivation Therapy Efficacy Combined With Prostatic Irradiation: The Central Role of Tumor Stage and Radiation Dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Scott, E-mail: scott.williams@petermac.or; Buyyounouski, Mark; Kestin, Larry

2011-03-01

Purpose: To evaluate the response of clinically localized prostate cancer to various durations of planned androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and to investigate subgroups predicting response. Methods and Materials: Data of 3,666 prostate cancer patients treated with either combined ADT and external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or EBRT alone at four institutions were examined. ADT consisted of neoadjuvant, concurrent, or adjuvant ADT or combinations of these regimens. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/ml), assessed from the end of therapy. Factors predictive for the need for ADT were examined with interaction analyses. Results: The impact of increasingmore » ADT duration was nonlinear with, on average, 6 months of adjuvant ADT resulting in a reduction of the risk of biochemical failure by 38% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29%-46%), while 12, 24, and 36 months of ADT resulted in a 58% (95% CI, 47%-67%), 66% (95% CI, 55%-75%), and 66% (95% CI, 51%-77%) relative failure reduction, respectively. Patients with higher T stage cancers and those treated with lower radiation doses had a significantly greater benefit for increasing ADT duration (interaction, p = 0.016 and p = 0.007, respectively). Pretreatment prostate-specific antigen values, Gleason score, age, and risk group did not modify the response to ADT. Conclusions: The known ADT efficacy derived from randomized studies can be generalized to patients with different features, and individual predictions of potential benefit from ADT use and duration may be calculated to aid patient and physician decision making. Tumor stage and radiation dose variations were related to significantly different ADT duration effects. The validity of these predictive factors requires prospective evaluation.« less

Prediction of Quality of life by Self-Efficacy, Pain Intensity and Pain Duration in Patient with Pain Disorders

PubMed Central

Yazdi-Ravandi, Saeid; Taslimi, Zahra; Jamshidian, Narges; Saberi, Hayede; Shams, Jamal; Haghparast, Abbas

2013-01-01

The quality of life (QOL) has been defined as “a person's sense of well-being that stems from satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the areas of life that are important to him/her”. It is generally accepted that pain intensity and duration have a negative impact on the QOL. One specific type of control is “self-efficacy”, or the belief that one has the ability to successfully engage in specific actions. The ability to adapt to pain may play an important role in maintaining the QOL. In this study, we investigated the role of self-efficacy, pain intensity, and pain duration in various domains of quality of life such as physical, psychological, social and environmental domains. In this study, 290 adult patients (146 men, 144 women) completed coping self-efficacy and the WHOQOL-BREF Questionnaire. Moreover, we illustrated numerical rating scale for pain intensity. The results were analyzed using SPSS version of 19.0 and means, descriptive correlation, and regression were calculated. Our data revealed that self-efficacy but not the pain duration could significantly anticipate the QOL and its four related domains (P<0.001). In addition, it is noticeable that the effect of self-efficacy on the prediction of QOL is much more obvious in the psychological domain. However, the pain intensity could predict all of the QOL domains (P<0.001) except social and environmental ones. In conclusion, to predict the quality of life (QOL) in person suffering from chronic pain, self-efficacy and pain intensity are more important factors than the pain duration and demographic variables. PMID:25337337

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Is the Relationship between Race and Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Adherence Mediated by Sleep Duration?

PubMed Central

Billings, Martha E.; Rosen, Carol L.; Wang, Rui; Auckley, Dennis; Benca, Ruth; Foldvary-Schaefer, Nancy; Iber, Conrad; Zee, Phyllis; Redline, Susan; Kapur, Vishesh K.

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: Black race has been associated with decreased continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence. Short sleep duration, long sleep latency, and insomnia complaints may affect CPAP adherence as they affect sleep and opportunity to use CPAP. We assessed whether self-reported sleep measures were associated with CPAP adherence and if racial variations in these sleep characteristics may explain racial differences in CPAP adherence. Design: Analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial (HomePAP), which investigated home versus laboratory-based diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. Setting: Seven American Academy of Sleep Medicine-accredited sleep centers in five cities in the United States. Patients or Participants: Enrolled subjects (n = 191) with apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 and sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale > 12). Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Multivariable regression was used to assess if subjective sleep measures and symptoms predicted 3-mo CPAP use. Mediation analysis was used to assess if sleep measures mediated the association of race with CPAP adherence. Black participants reported shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency at baseline than white and Hispanic participants. Shorter sleep duration and longer sleep latency predicted worse CPAP adherence. Sleep duration mediated the association of black race with lower CPAP adherence. However, insomnia symptoms were not associated with race or CPAP adherence. Conclusions: Among subjects with similar severity of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness, baseline self-reported sleep duration and latency, but not perceived insomnia, predicted CPAP adherence over 3 mo. Sleep duration explains some of the observed differences in CPAP use by race. Sleep duration and latency should be considered when evaluating poor CPAP adherence. Clinical Trial Information: Portable Monitoring for Diagnosis and Management of Sleep Apnea (HomePAP) URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00642486. NIH clinical trials registry number: NCT00642486. Citation: Billings ME; Rosen CL; Wang R; Auckley D; Benca R; Foldvary-Schaefer N; Iber C; Zee P; Redline S; Kapur VK. Is the relationship between race and continuous positive airway pressure adherence mediated by sleep duration? SLEEP 2013;36(2):221-227. PMID:23372269

Lower inhibitory control interacts with greater pain catastrophizing to predict greater pain intensity in women with migraine and overweight/obesity.

PubMed

Galioto, Rachel; O'Leary, Kevin C; Thomas, J Graham; Demos, Kathryn; Lipton, Richard B; Gunstad, John; Pavlović, Jelena M; Roth, Julie; Rathier, Lucille; Bond, Dale S

2017-12-01

Pain catastrophizing (PC) is associated with more severe and disabling migraine attacks. However, factors that moderate this relationship are unknown. Failure of inhibitory control (IC), or the ability to suppress automatic or inappropriate responses, may be one such factor given previous research showing a relationship between higher PC and lower IC in non-migraine samples, and research showing reduced IC in migraine. Therefore, we examined whether lower IC interacts with increased PC to predict greater migraine severity as measured by pain intensity, attack frequency, and duration. Women (n = 105) aged 18-50 years old (M = 38.0 ± 1.2) with overweight/obesity and migraine who were seeking behavioral treatment for weight loss and migraine reduction completed a 28-day smartphone-based headache diary assessing migraine headache severity. Participants then completed a modified computerized Stroop task as a measure of IC and self-report measures of PC (Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS]), anxiety, and depression. Linear regression was used to examine independent and joint associations of PC and IC with indices of migraine severity after controlling for age, body mass index (BMI) depression, and anxiety. Participants on average had BMI of 35.1 ± 6.5 kg/m 2 and reported 5.3 ± 2.6 migraine attacks (8.3 ± 4.4 migraine days) over 28 days that produced moderate pain intensity (5.9 ± 1.4 out of 10) with duration of 20.0 ± 14.2 h. After adjusting for covariates, higher PCS total (β = .241, SE = .14, p = .03) and magnification subscale (β = .311, SE = .51, p < .01) scores were significant independent correlates of longer attack duration. IC interacted with total PCS (β = 1.106, SE = .001, p = .03) rumination (β = 1.098, SE = .001, p = .04), and helplessness (β = 1.026, SE = .001, p = .04) subscale scores to predict headache pain intensity, such that the association between PC and pain intensity became more positive at lower levels of IC. Results showed that lower IC interacted with higher PC, both overall and specific subcomponents, to predict higher pain intensity during migraine attacks. Future studies are needed to determine whether interventions to improve IC could lead to less painful migraine attacks via improvements in PC.

Posttreatment Prostate-Specific Antigen 6 Months After Radiation With Androgen Deprivation Therapy Predicts for Distant Metastasis–Free Survival and Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naik, Mihir, E-mail: naikm@ccf.org; Reddy, Chandana A.; Stephans, Kevin L.

Objectives/Background: To determine whether a 6-month posttreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value in patients with prostate cancer (PCa) treated with concurrent androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) serves as an early predictor for biochemical relapse free survival (bRFS), distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Methods: A retrospective review of intermediate-risk and high-risk PCa patients treated with EBRT and concurrent ADT at a single institution between 1996 and 2012. All patients received high-dose radiation with either 78 Gy in 39 fractions or 70 Gy in 28 fractions. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate bRFS and DMFS, andmore » cumulative incidence was used to estimate PCSM. Results: 532 patients were identified. The median follow-up time was 7.5 years (range, 1-16.25 years). The median initial PSA (iPSA) was 13.0 ng/mL (range, 0.37-255 ng/mL), and the median duration of ADT was 6 months (range, 1-78 months). The median PSA 6 months after EBRT was 0.1 ng/mL (range, 0-19 ng/mL), and 310 patients (58.3%) had a 6-month PSA ≤0.1 ng/mL. Multivariable analysis (MVA) demonstrated that a 6-month post-EBRT PSA of >0.1 ng/mL was an independent predictor of worse bRFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.518; P<.0001), DMFS (HR=3.743; P<.0001), and PCSM (HR=5.435; P<.0001). On MVA, a Gleason score of 8 to 10 also correlated with worse DMFS and PCSM (P<.05). The duration of ADT (1-6 vs >6 months) was not predictive of any clinical endpoint. Conclusions: A 6-month posttreatment PSA >0.1 ng/mL in intermediate-risk and high-risk PCa patients treated with concurrent high-dose EBRT and ADT is associated with worse bRFS, DMFS, and PCSM. The duration of ADT was not predictive of any clinical endpoint. A 6-month PSA after definitive EBRT and ADT helps identify patients at higher risk of disease progression and may serve as a predictive tool to select patients for early salvage therapy on future clinical trials.« less

Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph, Ackeem; Herrera, David; Hijal, Tarek

We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting inmore » the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.« less

Robust multiscale prediction of Po River discharge using a twofold AR-NN approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessio, Silvia; Taricco, Carla; Rubinetti, Sara; Zanchettin, Davide; Rubino, Angelo; Mancuso, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean area is among the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades and potentially substantial future drying according to climate projections. However, significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates these long-term hydrological trend as observed, for instance, in North Italian precipitation and river discharge records. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. In order to forecast short and noisy hydroclimatic time series, we apply a twofold statistical approach that we improved with respect to previous works [1]. Our prediction strategy consists in the application of two independent methods that use autoregressive models and feed-forward neural networks. Since all prediction methods work better on clean signals, the predictions are not performed directly on the series, but rather on each significant variability components extracted with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In this contribution, we will illustrate the multiscale prediction approach and its application to the case of decadal prediction of annual-average Po River discharges (Italy). The discharge record is available for the last 209 years and allows to work with both interannual and decadal time-scale components. Fifteen-year forecasts obtained with both methods robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the second half of the 2020s. We will discuss advantages and limitations of the proposed statistical approach in the light of the current capabilities of decadal climate prediction systems based on numerical climate models, toward an integrated dynamical and statistical approach for the interannual-to-decadal prediction of hydroclimate variability in medium-size river basins. [1] Alessio et. al., Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core, Clim. of the Past, 8, 831-839, 2012.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

Modelling the impact of causal and non-causal factors on disruption duration for Toronto's subway system: An exploratory investigation using hazard modelling.

PubMed

Louie, Jacob; Shalaby, Amer; Habib, Khandker Nurul

2017-01-01

Most investigations of incident-related delay duration in the transportation context are restricted to highway traffic, with little attention given to delays due to transit service disruptions. Studies of transit-based delay duration are also considerably less comprehensive than their highway counterparts with respect to examining the effects of non-causal variables on the delay duration. However, delays due to incidents in public transit service can have serious consequences on the overall urban transportation system due to the pivotal and vital role of public transit. The ability to predict the durations of various types of transit system incidents is indispensable for better management and mitigation of service disruptions. This paper presents a detailed investigation on incident delay durations in Toronto's subway system over the year 2013, focusing on the effects of the incidents' location and time, the train-type involved, and the non-adherence to proper recovery procedures. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard models are estimated to investigate the relationship between these factors and the resulting delay duration. The empirical investigation reveals that incident types that impact both safety and operations simultaneously generally have longer expected delays than incident types that impact either safety or operations alone. Incidents at interchange stations are cleared faster than incidents at non-interchange stations. Incidents during peak periods have nearly the same delay durations as off-peak incidents. The estimated models are believed to be useful tools in predicting the relative magnitude of incident delay duration for better management of subway operations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of antibiotic resistance is linked to any genetic mechanism affecting bacterial duration of carriage

PubMed Central

Lehtinen, Sonja; Blanquart, François; Croucher, Nicholas J.; Turner, Paul; Lipsitch, Marc; Fraser, Christophe

2017-01-01

Understanding how changes in antibiotic consumption affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens is important for public health. In a number of bacterial species, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, the prevalence of resistance has remained relatively stable despite prolonged selection pressure from antibiotics. The evolutionary processes allowing the robust coexistence of antibiotic sensitive and resistant strains are not fully understood. While allelic diversity can be maintained at a locus by direct balancing selection, there is no evidence for such selection acting in the case of resistance. In this work, we propose a mechanism for maintaining coexistence at the resistance locus: linkage to a second locus that is under balancing selection and that modulates the fitness effect of resistance. We show that duration of carriage plays such a role, with long duration of carriage increasing the fitness advantage gained from resistance. We therefore predict that resistance will be more common in strains with a long duration of carriage and that mechanisms maintaining diversity in duration of carriage will also maintain diversity in antibiotic resistance. We test these predictions in S. pneumoniae and find that the duration of carriage of a serotype is indeed positively correlated with the prevalence of resistance in that serotype. These findings suggest heterogeneity in duration of carriage is a partial explanation for the coexistence of sensitive and resistant strains and that factors determining bacterial duration of carriage will also affect the prevalence of resistance. PMID:28096340

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2007-01-01

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition: The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mozer, Michael C.; Pashler, Harold; Homaei, Hadjar

2008-01-01

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect…

Job Demands and Job Resources as Predictors of Absence Duration and Frequency.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bakker, Arnold B.; Demerouti, Evangelia; de Boer, Elpine; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

2003-01-01

Structural equation modeling of data from 214 employees indicated that job demands uniquely predicted burnout and indirectly predicted length of absence. Job resources (physical, psychological, social, or organizational aspects that reduce job demands or stimulate growth) uniquely predicted organizational commitment and indirectly predicted spells…

Factors predicting the duration of adrenal insufficiency in patients successfully treated for Cushing disease and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome.

PubMed

Prete, Alessandro; Paragliola, Rosa Maria; Bottiglieri, Filomena; Rota, Carlo Antonio; Pontecorvi, Alfredo; Salvatori, Roberto; Corsello, Salvatore Maria

2017-03-01

Successful treatment of Cushing syndrome causes transient or permanent adrenal insufficiency deriving from endogenous hypercortisolism-induced hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression. We analyzed pre-treatment factors potentially affecting the duration of adrenal insufficiency. We conducted a retrospective analysis on patients successfully treated for Cushing disease (15 patients) who underwent transsphenoidal surgery, and nonmalignant primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (31 patients) who underwent unilateral adrenalectomy, divided into patients with overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (14 patients) and subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome (17 patients). Epidemiological data, medical history, and hormonal parameters depending on the etiology of hypercortisolism were collected and compared to the duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of follow-up after surgery for Cushing disease and primary adrenal Cushing syndrome was 70 and 48 months, respectively. In the Cushing disease group, the median duration of adrenal insufficiency after transsphenoidal surgery was 15 months: younger age at diagnosis and longer duration of signs and symptoms of hypercortisolism before diagnosis and surgery were associated with longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. The median duration of adrenal insufficiency was 6 months for subclinical primary adrenal Cushing syndrome and 18.5 months for overt primary adrenal Cushing syndrome. The biochemical severity of hypercortisolism, the grade of hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis suppression, and treatment with ketoconazole before surgery accounted for longer duration of adrenal insufficiency. In patients with Cushing disease, younger age and delayed diagnosis and treatment predict longer need for glucocorticoid replacement therapy after successful transsphenoidal surgery. In patients with primary adrenal Cushing syndrome, the severity of hypercortisolism plays a primary role in influencing the duration of adrenal insufficiency after unilateral adrenalectomy.

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

PubMed Central

Saupe, E. E.; Hendricks, J. R.; Portell, R. W.; Dowsett, H. J.; Haywood, A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lieberman, B. S.

2014-01-01

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks. PMID:25297868

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saupe, E.E.; Hendricks, J.R.; Portell, R.W.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S.J.; Lieberman, B.S.

2014-01-01

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Modelling volatility recurrence intervals in the Chinese commodity futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Wang, Zhengxin; Guo, Haiming

2016-09-01

The law of extreme event occurrence attracts much research. The volatility recurrence intervals of Chinese commodity futures market prices are studied: the results show that the probability distributions of the scaled volatility recurrence intervals have a uniform scaling curve for different thresholds q. So we can deduce the probability distribution of extreme events from normal events. The tail of a scaling curve can be well fitted by a Weibull form, which is significance-tested by KS measures. Both short-term and long-term memories are present in the recurrence intervals with different thresholds q, which denotes that the recurrence intervals can be predicted. In addition, similar to volatility, volatility recurrence intervals also have clustering features. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we artificially synthesise ARMA, GARCH-class sequences similar to the original data, and find out the reason behind the clustering. The larger the parameter d of the FIGARCH model, the stronger the clustering effect is. Finally, we use the Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Conditional Duration model (FIACD) to analyse the recurrence interval characteristics. The results indicated that the FIACD model may provide a method to analyse volatility recurrence intervals.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining below specified low thresholds in the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dickinson, Jesse

2017-01-01

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater-level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness-of-fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month-to-month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low-threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic-forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.

Work-Family Conflict, Psychological Distress and Sleep Deficiency Among Patient Care Workers

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, Henrik Børsting; Reme, Silje Endresen; Sembajwe, Grace; Hopcia, Karen; Stoddard, Anne M.; Kenwood, Christopher; Stiles, Tore C.; Sorensen, Glorian; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2015-01-01

Objectives There is a well-established link between psychological distress, work-related stress and sleep. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that work-family conflict was associated with sleep deficiency both cross-sectionally and longitudinally while controlling for potential covariates. Methods In this two-phase study, a workplace health survey was collected from a cohort of patient care workers (n=1,572) at two large hospitals. Follow-up was collected nearly two years later in a subsample (n=102). Self-reported measures included work-family conflict, socio-demographics, workplace factors, psychological distress, and outcomes of sleep duration, sleep insufficiency, and sleep maintenance. Bivariate associations (P<0.2) from the baseline sample were used to build multivariable logistic regression models. Results The participants were 90 % women with a mean age of 41 (±11.7) years. At baseline, after adjusting for covariates, higher levels of work-family conflict were significantly associated with sleep deficiency, short sleep duration and perceived sleep insufficiency, but not with sleep maintenance problems. Higher levels of work-family conflict also predicted sleep insufficiency at follow-up nearly two years later. None of the other variables were associated with sleep outcomes longitudinally. Conclusion This is the first study to determine the predictive and cross-sectional associations of work-family conflict on sleep deficiency, also controlling for other measures of job stress and psychological distress. The results indicate that future interventions on sleep deficiency in patient care workers should include a specific focus on work-family conflict. PMID:25000547

Breastfeeding Duration and the Theory of Planned Behavior and Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Framework: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lau, Christine Y K; Lok, Kris Y W; Tarrant, Marie

2018-03-01

Introduction Numerous studies have shown that the constructs of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy (BSE) Framework can effectively identify relationships between maternal psychosocial factors and breastfeeding initiation. However, the ability of these theories to predict breastfeeding duration has not been adequately analyzed. The aim of the review was to examine the utility of the constructs of TRA/TPB and BSE to predict breastfeeding duration. Methods We conducted a literature search using Pubmed (1980-May 2015), Medline (1966-May 2015), CINAHL (1980-May 2015), EMBASE (1980-May 2015) and PsycINFO (1980-May 2015). We selected studies that were observational studies without randomization or blinding, using TRA, TPB or BSE as the framework for analysis. Only studies reporting on breastfeeding duration were included. Results Thirty studies were selected, which include four using TRA, 10 using TPB, 15 using BSE and one using a combination of TPB and BSE. Maternal intention and breastfeeding self-efficacy were found to be important predictors of breastfeeding duration. Inconsistent findings were found in assessing the relationship between maternal attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavior control and breastfeeding duration. Discussion The inadequacy of these constructs in explaining breastfeeding duration indicates a need to further explore the role of maternal self-determination in breastfeeding behavior.

Word skipping: effects of word length, predictability, spelling and reading skill.

PubMed

Slattery, Timothy J; Yates, Mark

2017-08-31

Readers eyes often skip over words as they read. Skipping rates are largely determined by word length; short words are skipped more than long words. However, the predictability of a word in context also impacts skipping rates. Rayner, Slattery, Drieghe and Liversedge (2011) reported an effect of predictability on word skipping for even long words (10-13 characters) that extend beyond the word identification span. Recent research suggests that better readers and spellers have an enhanced perceptual span (Veldre & Andrews, 2014). We explored whether reading and spelling skill interact with word length and predictability to impact word skipping rates in a large sample (N=92) of average and poor adult readers. Participants read the items from Rayner et al. (2011) while their eye movements were recorded. Spelling skill (zSpell) was assessed using the dictation and recognition tasks developed by Sally Andrews and colleagues. Reading skill (zRead) was assessed from reading speed (words per minute) and accuracy of three 120 word passages each with 10 comprehension questions. We fit linear mixed models to the target gaze duration data and generalized linear mixed models to the target word skipping data. Target word gaze durations were significantly predicted by zRead while, the skipping likelihoods were significantly predicted by zSpell. Additionally, for gaze durations, zRead significantly interacted with word predictability as better readers relied less on context to support word processing. These effects are discussed in relation to the lexical quality hypothesis and eye movement models of reading.

Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors.

PubMed

Kendall, Matthew S; Poti, Matt; Karnauskas, Kristopher B

2016-04-01

Changes in larval import, export, and self-seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present-day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004-2012 represented present-day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self-seeding in 100 years such that 62-76% of islands experienced increased self-seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1-3% points in self-seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation measures that promote long-term resilience of larval supply. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Predicting physiological capacity of human load carriage - a review.

PubMed

Drain, Jace; Billing, Daniel; Neesham-Smith, Daniel; Aisbett, Brad

2016-01-01

This review article aims to evaluate a proposed maximum acceptable work duration model for load carriage tasks. It is contended that this concept has particular relevance to physically demanding occupations such as military and firefighting. Personnel in these occupations are often required to perform very physically demanding tasks, over varying time periods, often involving load carriage. Previous research has investigated concepts related to physiological workload limits in occupational settings (e.g. industrial). Evidence suggests however, that existing (unloaded) workload guidelines are not appropriate for load carriage tasks. The utility of this model warrants further work to enable prediction of load carriage durations across a range of functional workloads for physically demanding occupations. If the maximum duration for which personnel can physiologically sustain a load carriage task could be accurately predicted, commanders and supervisors could better plan for and manage tasks to ensure operational imperatives were met whilst minimising health risks for their workers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Happy-Sad mood from daily behaviors and previous sleep history.

PubMed

Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy Z; McHill, Andrew W; Phillips, Andrew J K; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B; Picard, Rosalind W

2015-01-01

We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants for ~30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other daily behavioral factors in college students. We analyzed this behavioral and physiological data to (i) identify factors that classified the participants into Happy-Sad mood using support vector machines (SVMs); and (ii) analyze how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified morning Happy-Sad mood. We found statistically significant associations amongst Sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors including the frequency of negative social interactions, and negative emails, and total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity and sleep duration predicted daily Happy-Sad mood with 65-80% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of Happy-Sad mood varied for different individuals.

Developing and Evaluating Computer-Based Teamwork Skills Training for Long-Duration Spaceflight Crews

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hixson, Katharine

2013-01-01

Due to the long-duration and long distance nature of future exploration missions, coupled with significant communication delays from ground-based personnel, NASA astronauts will be living and working within confined, isolated environments for significant periods of time. This extreme environment poses concerns for the flight crews' ability to…

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-12-01

With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

PubMed

Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

2015-10-01

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

Relationships between types of father breastfeeding support and breastfeeding outcomes.

PubMed

Rempel, Lynn A; Rempel, John K; Moore, Katrina C J

2017-07-01

Fathers' support can influence mothers' breastfeeding decisions and behavior. Potentially supportive behaviors have been reported in previous studies, but no studies have directly examined which, if any, of those actions are actually more likely to result in desired breastfeeding outcomes. The two studies reported in this paper address this gap by examining relationships between fathers' reported breastfeeding support and mothers' perceptions of received support and breastfeeding intentions, satisfaction, and duration. The Partner Breastfeeding Influence Scale (PBIS) was used in an online survey with 64 women and 41 men (34 couples) and a telephone survey with 80 mothers and 65 fathers (63 couples). Fathers' and mothers' reports of how often fathers engage in the types of support measured by the PBIS were used to predict breastfeeding intentions, satisfaction, and duration. In Study 1, responsiveness predicted breastfeeding success and satisfaction for men and satisfaction for women. However, mothers' intended breastfeeding duration was shorter when fathers both wanted them to breastfeed for a long time and were more appreciative and savvy about breastfeeding. In Study 2, when fathers reported being more appreciative and directly involved in breastfeeding, mothers reported shorter breastfeeding duration. In both studies, mothers' perceptions of their partners' responsiveness and fathers' reports of their own responsiveness predicted longer breastfeeding intentions and duration. These findings suggest that the most effective breastfeeding support is delivered using a sensitive, coordinated teamwork approach that is responsive to the mother's needs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intrinsic and extrinsic predictors of video-gaming behaviour and adolescent bedtimes: the relationship between flow states, self-perceived risk-taking, device accessibility, parental regulation of media and bedtime.

PubMed

Smith, Lisa J; Gradisar, Michael; King, Daniel L; Short, Michelle

2017-02-01

How computer games affect the time at which adolescents go to bed is of growing research interest; however, the intrinsic individual and extrinsic sociocultural factors mediating the relationship between gaming and sleep have received minimal attention. This paper investigates how gaming duration mediates the relationship between intrinsic factors (perception of risky events and flow) and extrinsic factors (parental regulation and media accessibility) and adolescent bedtime. Adolescents (N = 422; age = 16.3 ± 2.02 years, 41% M) from six metropolitan schools and the Flinders University completed a questionnaire battery. More flow states (r = .34, p < .01) and increased accessibility (r= .21, p < .01) significantly predicted longer gaming duration, whereas greater parental regulation (r = - .15, p < .01) predicted fewer hours spent playing video games. In addition, higher perception of the negative consequences of risk-taking (r = .14, p < .01) significantly predicted later bedtimes in adolescence. The relationship between flow and bedtime during adolescence was fully mediated by gaming duration (b = .142, p < .001), whereas the association between parental regulation and bedtime was independent of gaming duration. Flow and parental regulation of media were identified as the key points for clinical intervention to decrease the duration of gaming of adolescents, thus promoting earlier bedtimes. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameter predicting the recurrence of adhesive small bowel obstruction in patients managed with a long tube.

PubMed

Sakakibara, Takumi; Harada, Akio; Ishikawa, Tadao; Komatsu, Yoshinao; Yaguchi, Toyohisa; Kodera, Yasuhiro; Nakao, Akimasa

2007-01-01

Some of our patients showed a recurrence of adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) with nonoperative management. The aim of this study was to evaluate the parameters predicting the recurrence of ASBO in patients managed with a long tube. Of 234 patients with ASBO admitted from April 1998 to September 2002, a total of 91 who recovered with nonoperative management after long tube placement were enrolled in this retrospective clinical study. We divided them into two groups for follow-up: the recurrence group and the no-recurrence group. We compared baseline characteristics, the number of previous ASBO admissions, the number of abdominal operations, the interval from the onset of symptoms to long-tube insertion, the duration of long-tube placement, the type of the contrasted intestine through the long tube, the location of the long-tube tip, and the drainage volume through the long tube between the two groups. We then examined the cumulative recurrence rate. A significant difference was found in the number of previous ASBO admissions, the duration of long-tube placement (77 hours vs. 43 hours), the contrasted intestine through the long tube, and the location of the long-tube tip. By multivariate analysis, the duration of long-tube placement was an independent parameter predicting the recurrence of ASBO. These results suggest that the duration of long-tube placement might serve as a parameter for predicting recurrence of ASBO in patients managed with a long tube.

Breast-feeding duration and child eating characteristics in relation to later vegetable intake in 2-6-year-old children in ten studies throughout Europe.

PubMed

de Wild, Victoire Wt; Jager, Gerry; Olsen, Annemarie; Costarelli, Vassiliki; Boer, Eric; Zeinstra, Gertrude G

2018-04-10

Breast-feeding is thought to facilitate young children's acceptance of new foods, including vegetables, but the evidence for this relationship appears inconsistent across studies. Increasing children's vegetable intake remains challenging; therefore the present study aimed to investigate whether breast-feeding duration predicts vegetable intake in 2-6-year-old children. Actual vegetable intake was measured in studies across three European countries. General linear model analyses with breast-feeding duration, sex and age of the child and maternal education as variables were used to predict children's vegetable intake per country. Additionally, the relationships between child eating behaviour characteristics (asked through the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire) and vegetable intake were investigated via Pearson correlations. Daycare centres, schools and home settings in Denmark, Greece and the Netherlands. Children aged 2-6 years (n 750). Breast-feeding duration was positively associated with children's vegetable intake at 2-6 years old in Denmark (P<0·01) and the Netherlands (P<0·05), but not in Greece (P=0·17). Age of the child, maternal education and sex of the child did not predict vegetable intake in our sample. All countries showed an inverse relationship between food neophobia and children's vegetable intake and a positive relationship between vegetable liking and intake. The present study found that breast-feeding duration is a predictor of later vegetable intake, but that current child eating behaviour characteristics, such as vegetable liking, food neophobia and enjoyment of food, also influence vegetable intake. Besides encouragement of breast-feeding duration, strategies that support vegetable liking and food enjoyment and decrease food neophobia are needed to support young children's vegetable intake.

Predictability Effects on Durations of Content and Function Words in Conversational English

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bell, Alan; Brenier, Jason; Gregory, Michelle L.

Content and function word duration are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Regression analyses of conversational speech show that content words are shorter when they are more frequent, but function words are not. Repeated content words are shorter, but function words are not. Furthermore, function words have shorter pronunciations, after controlling for frequency and predictability. both content and function words are strongly affected by predictability from the word following them, and only very frequent function words show sensitivity to predictability from the preceding word. The results support the view that content and function words are accessed by different productionmore » mechanisms. We argue that words’ form differences due to frequency or repetition stem from their faster or slower lexical access, mediated by a general mechanism that coordinates the pace of higher-level planning and the execution of the articulatory plan.« less

Extending Spent Fuel Storage until Transport for Reprocessing or Disposal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlsen, Brett; Chiguer, Mustapha; Grahn, Per

Spent fuel (SF) must be stored until an end point such as reprocessing or geologic disposal is imple-mented. Selection and implementation of an end point for SF depends upon future funding, legisla-tion, licensing and other factors that cannot be predicted with certainty. Past presumptions related to the availability of an end point have often been wrong and resulted in missed opportunities for properly informing spent fuel management policies and strategies. For example, dry cask storage systems were originally conceived to free up needed space in reactor spent fuel pools and also to provide SFS of up to 20 years untilmore » reprocessing and/or deep geological disposal became available. Hundreds of dry cask storage systems are now employed throughout the world and will be relied upon well beyond the originally envisioned design life. Given present and projected rates for the use of nuclear power coupled with projections for SF repro-cessing and disposal capacities, one concludes that SF storage will be prolonged, potentially for several decades. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has recently considered 300 years of storage to be appropriate for the characterization and prediction of ageing effects and ageing management issues associated with extending SF storage and subsequent transport. This paper encourages addressing the uncertainty associated with the duration of SF storage by de-sign – rather than by default. It suggests ways that this uncertainty may be considered in design, li-censing, policy, and strategy decisions and proposes a framework for safely extending spent fuel storage until SF can be transported for reprocessing or disposal – regardless of how long that may be. The paper however is not intended to either encourage or facilitate needlessly extending spent fuel storage durations. Its intent is to ensure a design and safety basis with sufficient margin to accommodate the full range of potential future scenarios. Although the focus is primarily on storage of SF from commercial operation, the principles described are equally applicable to SF from research and production reactors as well as high-level radioactive waste.« less

Multiple Irradiation Capsule Experiment (MICE)-3B Irradiation Test of Space Fuel Specimens in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) - Close Out Documentation for Naval Reactors (NR) Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. Chen; CM Regan; D. Noe

2006-01-09

Few data exist for UO{sub 2} or UN within the notional design space for the Prometheus-1 reactor (low fission rate, high temperature, long duration). As such, basic testing is required to validate predictions (and in some cases determine) performance aspects of these fuels. Therefore, the MICE-3B test of UO{sub 2} pellets was designed to provide data on gas release, unrestrained swelling, and restrained swelling at the upper range of fission rates expected for a space reactor. These data would be compared with model predictions and used to determine adequacy of a space reactor design basis relative to fission gas releasemore » and swelling of UO{sub 2} fuel and to assess potential pellet-clad interactions. A primary goal of an irradiation test for UN fuel was to assess performance issues currently associated with this fuel type such as gas release, swelling and transient performance. Information learned from this effort may have enabled use of UN fuel for future applications.« less

Searching for the right fit: development of applicant person-organization fit perceptions during the recruitment process.

PubMed

Swider, Brian W; Zimmerman, Ryan D; Barrick, Murray R

2015-05-01

Numerous studies link applicant fit perceptions measured at a single point in time to recruitment outcomes. Expanding upon this prior research by incorporating decision-making theory, this study examines how applicants develop these fit perceptions over the duration of the recruitment process, showing meaningful changes in fit perceptions across and within organizations overtime. To assess the development of applicant fit perceptions, eight assessments of person-organization (PO) fit with up to four different organizations across 169 applicants for 403 job choice decisions were analyzed. Results showed the presence of initial levels and changes in differentiation of applicant PO fit perceptions across organizations, which significantly predicted future job choice. In addition, changes in within-organizational PO fit perceptions across two stages of recruitment predicted applicant job choices among multiple employers. The implications of these results for accurately understanding the development of fit perceptions, relationships between fit perceptions and key recruiting outcomes, and possible limitations of past meta-analytically derived estimates of these relationships are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Psychosocial interactions during ISS missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanas, N. A.; Salnitskiy, V. P.; Ritsher, J. B.; Gushin, V. I.; Weiss, D. S.; Saylor, S. A.; Kozerenko, O. P.; Marmar, C. R.

2007-02-01

Based on anecdotal reports from astronauts and cosmonauts, studies of space analog environments on Earth, and our previous research on the Mir Space Station, a number of psychosocial issues have been identified that can lead to problems during long-duration space expeditions. Several of these issues were studied during a series of missions to the International Space Station. Using a mood and group climate questionnaire that was completed weekly by crewmembers in space and personnel in mission control, we found no evidence to support the presence of predicted decrements in well-being during the second half or in any specific quarter of the missions. The results did support the predicted displacement of negative feelings to outside supervisors among both crew and ground subjects. There were several significant differences in mood and group perceptions between Americans and Russians and between crewmembers and mission control personnel. Crewmembers related cohesion to the support role of their leader, and mission control personnel related cohesion to both the task and support roles of their leader. These findings are discussed with reference to future space missions.

Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

2014-03-01

(1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, Shreyasee; Achenbach, Sara J.; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Sibonga, Jean

2011-01-01

It is well recognized that bone mineral density [BMD] at load-bearing sites of the hip and spine sustain significant loss during space flight, estimated at approximately 0.5-1.0% per month. However, the long-term effects on bone health following return from long-duration space flight remain unclear. It is unknown whether BMD for men recovers beyond 1 year following return from space to what would be predicted or if deficits persist. Using our previously created prediction models, we compared the observed BMD of male US crew following 3 years since returning from longduration space flight with what would be predicted if they had not been exposed to microgravity.

Automatic auditory processing deficits in schizophrenia and clinical high-risk patients: forecasting psychosis risk with mismatch negativity.

PubMed

Perez, Veronica B; Woods, Scott W; Roach, Brian J; Ford, Judith M; McGlashan, Thomas H; Srihari, Vinod H; Mathalon, Daniel H

2014-03-15

Only about one third of patients at high risk for psychosis based on current clinical criteria convert to a psychotic disorder within a 2.5-year follow-up period. Targeting clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals for preventive interventions could expose many to unnecessary treatments, underscoring the need to enhance predictive accuracy with nonclinical measures. Candidate measures include event-related potential components with established sensitivity to schizophrenia. Here, we examined the mismatch negativity (MMN) component of the event-related potential elicited automatically by auditory deviance in CHR and early illness schizophrenia (ESZ) patients. We also examined whether MMN predicted subsequent conversion to psychosis in CHR patients. Mismatch negativity to auditory deviants (duration, frequency, and duration + frequency double deviant) was assessed in 44 healthy control subjects, 19 ESZ, and 38 CHR patients. Within CHR patients, 15 converters to psychosis were compared with 16 nonconverters with at least 12 months of clinical follow-up. Hierarchical Cox regression examined the ability of MMN to predict time to psychosis onset in CHR patients. Irrespective of deviant type, MMN was significantly reduced in ESZ and CHR patients relative to healthy control subjects and in CHR converters relative to nonconverters. Mismatch negativity did not significantly differentiate ESZ and CHR patients. The duration + frequency double deviant MMN, but not the single deviant MMNs, significantly predicted the time to psychosis onset in CHR patients. Neurophysiological mechanisms underlying automatic processing of auditory deviance, as reflected by the duration + frequency double deviant MMN, are compromised before psychosis onset and can enhance the prediction of psychosis risk among CHR patients. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Duration of attenuated positive and negative symptoms in individuals at clinical high risk: Associations with risk of conversion to psychosis and functional outcome.

PubMed

Carrión, Ricardo E; Demmin, Docia; Auther, Andrea M; McLaughlin, Danielle; Olsen, Ruth; Lencz, Todd; Correll, Christoph U; Cornblatt, Barbara A

2016-10-01

Research in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis has focused on subjects with no more than 12 months of present or worsened attenuated positive symptoms. However, the impact of long duration attenuated positive and/or negative prodromal symptoms on outcomes is unclear. Seventy-six CHR subjects with attenuated positive symptoms and at least moderate severity level negative symptoms rated on the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) were prospectively followed for a mean of 3.0 ± 1.6 years. Social and Role functioning was assessed with the Global Functioning: Social and Role scales. Correlations between attenuated positive and negative symptom duration and severity and conversion to psychosis and functional outcomes were analyzed. The average onset of SOPS rated negative symptoms (M = 53.24 months, SD = 48.90, median = 37.27) was approximately twelve months prior to the emergence of attenuated positive symptom (M = 40.15 months, SD = 40.33, median = 24.77, P < 0.05). More severe positive symptoms (P = 0.004), but not longer duration of positive (P = 0.412) or negative (P = 0.754) symptoms, predicted conversion to psychosis. Neither positive symptom duration (P = 0.181) nor severity (P = 0.469) predicted role or social functioning at study endpoint. Conversely, longer negative symptom duration predicted poor social functioning (P = 0.004). Overall, our findings suggest that the severity of attenuated positive symptoms at baseline may be more important than symptom duration for determining individuals at increased risk of developing psychosis. In contrast, long-standing negative symptoms may be associated with persistent social difficulties and therefore have an important position in the treatment of disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy for surgical trainees: predictive factors of operative time.

PubMed

Haji, A; Khan, A; Haq, A; Ribeiro, B

2009-08-01

To determine pre-operative criteria to predict duration and technical difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomies that will aid in identifying patients suitable for training lists. A prospective analysis of 835 consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomies. Data collected included patient demographics, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES), duration of surgery (from skin incision to skin closure), peri-operative and postoperative complications and histological gallbladder wall thickness. Post-operative complications were seen in 3% (n=20). Overall open conversion rate was 2%. The mean duration of surgery was 78.76 +/- 1.75 minutes. Age, ERCP and ES were not independent predictors of a long operation time. However, a positive correlation was seen with histological gallbladder wall thickness and duration of surgery (p=0.001). The mean operating time for gallbladder wall thickness < 3 mm was 72.1 +/- 1.62 minutes whereas that for > 3 mm thickness was 83.3 +/- 2.05 minutes (p=<0.001). Gallbladder wall thickness can be used as an independent predictor of a long operation time.

Job satisfaction and short-term sickness absence among Dutch workers.

PubMed

Notenbomer, Annette; Roelen, Corné A M; Groothoff, Johan W

2006-06-01

Sickness absence is a considerable economic and social problem. Short-term sickness absence is known to be associated with behavioural attitudes. The correlation between sickness absence and job satisfaction has been studied infrequently and with contradictory results. This study investigated the correlation between short-term sickness absence and both global and specific job satisfaction. We defined short-term sickness absence as spells of up to 42 days. A random sample of 898 Dutch workers from a variety of economic sectors and companies received a self-report questionnaire on their first day of sick leave. The questionnaire measured global and specific job satisfaction. In our regression analysis, we controlled for the confounding factors of age, gender, educational level, perceived workload, job autonomy and decision latitude. The duration of an absence spell was defined as the amount of calendar days between sick leave and return to work. Global job satisfaction did not correlate significantly with the duration of short-term sickness absence. While increasing physical job demands predicted longer absence, increasing job autonomy and educational level predicted shorter absence. Satisfaction with colleagues predicted longer duration absence. Global job satisfaction did not correlate with the duration of short-term absence spells, but specific satisfaction with colleagues was associated with longer sickness spells.

Test-retest paradigm of the forced swimming test in female mice is not valid for predicting antidepressant-like activity: participation of acetylcholine and sigma-1 receptors.

PubMed

Su, Jing; Hato-Yamada, Noriko; Araki, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Hiroyuki

2013-01-01

The forced swimming test (FST) in mice is widely used to predict the antidepressant activity of a drug, but information describing the immobility of female mice is limited. We investigated whether a prior swimming experience affects the immobility duration in a second FST in female mice and whether the test-retest paradigm is a valid screening tool for antidepressants. Female ICR mice were exposed to the FST using two experimental paradigms: a single FST and a double FST in which mice had experienced FST once 24 h prior to the second trail. The initial FST experience reliably prolonged immobility duration in the second FST. The antidepressants imipramine and paroxetine significantly reduced immobility duration in the single FST, but not in the double FST. Scopolamine and the sigma-1 (σ1) antagonist NE-100 administered before the second trial significantly prevented the prolongation of immobility. Neither a 5-HT1A nor a 5-HT2A receptor agonist affected immobility duration. We suggest that the test-retest paradigm in female mice is not adequate for predicting antidepressant-like activity of a drug; the prolongation of immobility in the double FST is modulated through acetylcholine and σ1 receptors.

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

PubMed Central

MacCracken, James G

2012-01-01

The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses. PMID:22957206

Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heller, Rene; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

2016-01-01

We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.

2018-01-01

AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p < .01) and host fish specificity (p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers (p > .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

Migratory stopover timing is predicted by breeding latitude, not habitat quality, in a long-distance migratory songbird

DOE PAGES

Loon, A. Van; Ray, J. D.; Savage, A.; ...

2017-02-06

The timing of migration can have important survival impacts, as birds must synchronize their movements with favourable environmental conditions to reach their destination. The timing of arrival at and duration of migratory stopover may be largely governed by environmental conditions experienced en route as well as by endogenous factors, but our understanding of these processes is limited. We used light-level geolocators to collect start-to-finish spatio-temporal migration data for a declining aerial insectivore, the Purple Martin ( Progne subis), that travels seasonally between North and South America. Using data obtained for birds originating from range-wide breeding populations, our objectives were tomore » test intrinsic and extrinsic hypotheses for migration stopover duration as well as to identify important stopover regions during fall migration. We examined whether breeding latitude, fall migration timing, age, sex or habitat quality at stopover sites (measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) influenced the duration of stopovers. We found that most individuals rely on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Nicaragua for stopovers during fall migration, where duration ranged from 1 to 36 days (average 6.8 ± 8.2). Stopovers in these regions were later and of longer duration for more northern breeding populations. Only breeding latitude predicted stopover duration, and not habitat quality at stopovers, lending support to the hypothesis that duration is prescribed by endogenous factors. Lastly, the important core stopover regions we documented could be targeted for conservation efforts, particularly for steeply-declining, more northern breeding populations that have greater stopover duration in these areas.« less

Migratory stopover timing is predicted by breeding latitude, not habitat quality, in a long-distance migratory songbird

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loon, A. Van; Ray, J. D.; Savage, A.

The timing of migration can have important survival impacts, as birds must synchronize their movements with favourable environmental conditions to reach their destination. The timing of arrival at and duration of migratory stopover may be largely governed by environmental conditions experienced en route as well as by endogenous factors, but our understanding of these processes is limited. We used light-level geolocators to collect start-to-finish spatio-temporal migration data for a declining aerial insectivore, the Purple Martin ( Progne subis), that travels seasonally between North and South America. Using data obtained for birds originating from range-wide breeding populations, our objectives were tomore » test intrinsic and extrinsic hypotheses for migration stopover duration as well as to identify important stopover regions during fall migration. We examined whether breeding latitude, fall migration timing, age, sex or habitat quality at stopover sites (measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) influenced the duration of stopovers. We found that most individuals rely on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Nicaragua for stopovers during fall migration, where duration ranged from 1 to 36 days (average 6.8 ± 8.2). Stopovers in these regions were later and of longer duration for more northern breeding populations. Only breeding latitude predicted stopover duration, and not habitat quality at stopovers, lending support to the hypothesis that duration is prescribed by endogenous factors. Lastly, the important core stopover regions we documented could be targeted for conservation efforts, particularly for steeply-declining, more northern breeding populations that have greater stopover duration in these areas.« less

[Morbidity and mortality cardiovascular risk in dependence of type 2 diabetes duration].

PubMed

Gimeno Orna, José Antonio; Blasco Lamarca, Yolanda; Campos Gutierrez, Belén; Molinero Herguedas, Edmundo; Lou Arnal, Luis Miguel

2014-01-01

This study was aimed to assess the prognostic importance of diabetes duration to predict cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetic patients. Prospective cohort study with inclusion of type 2 diabetic patients. Follow-up lasted until the appearance of a cardiovascular event, until death or until 2012. Patients were classified into 5 groups in accordance to diabetes duration and baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD): group 1: ≤ 5 years without CVD; group 2: 6-10 years without CVD; group 3: 11-15 years without CVD; group 4: >15 years without CVD; group 5: baseline CVD independently of diabetes duration. CVD rates were expressed per 1000 patients-year and compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Log Rank Test. The predictive power of diabetes duration was evaluated by Cox regression. 457 patients, aged 64.9 (DE 9.3) years (38.9% males), were included. Diabetes duration was 10.5 (DE 7.6) years. 125 cardiovascular events occurred during 12.3 years follow-up. Cardiovascular event rates were progressively increased from groups 1 to 5 (group 1: 14.1; group 2: 18.3; group 3: 19.6; group 4: 32.9; group 5: 53.5; p<0.0001, linear tendency). Diabetes duration superior to 15 years significantly increased cardiovascular risk of the patients (HR=1.97; 95%CI: 1.23-3.15; P=.004). It could be useful to consider diabetes duration in order to stratify cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Reevaluation of the role of duration of morning stiffness in the assessment of rheumatoid arthritis activity.

PubMed

Khan, Nasim A; Yazici, Yusuf; Calvo-Alen, Jaime; Dadoniene, Jolanta; Gossec, Laure; Hansen, Troels M; Huisman, Margriet; Kallikorm, Riina; Muller, Raili; Liveborn, Margareth; Oding, Rolf; Luchikhina, Elena; Naranjo, Antonio; Rexhepi, Sylejman; Taylor, Peter; Tlustochowich, Witold; Tsirogianni, Afrodite; Sokka, Tuulikki

2009-11-01

To evaluate the utility of the duration of morning stiffness (MS), as a patient-reported outcome (PRO), in assessing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity. We acquired information on 5439 patients in QUEST-RA, an international database of patients with RA evaluated by a standard protocol. MS duration was assessed from time of waking to time of maximal improvement. Ability of MS duration to differentiate RA activity states, based on Disease Activity Score (DAS)28, was assessed by analysis of variance; and a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted for discriminating clinically active (DAS28 > 3.2) from less active (DAS28 3.2). MS duration has a moderate correlation with RA disease activity. Assessment of MS duration may be clinically helpful in patients with low RAPID3 scores.

On the role of crossmodal prediction in audiovisual emotion perception.

PubMed

Jessen, Sarah; Kotz, Sonja A

2013-01-01

Humans rely on multiple sensory modalities to determine the emotional state of others. In fact, such multisensory perception may be one of the mechanisms explaining the ease and efficiency by which others' emotions are recognized. But how and when exactly do the different modalities interact? One aspect in multisensory perception that has received increasing interest in recent years is the concept of cross-modal prediction. In emotion perception, as in most other settings, visual information precedes the auditory information. Thereby, leading in visual information can facilitate subsequent auditory processing. While this mechanism has often been described in audiovisual speech perception, so far it has not been addressed in audiovisual emotion perception. Based on the current state of the art in (a) cross-modal prediction and (b) multisensory emotion perception research, we propose that it is essential to consider the former in order to fully understand the latter. Focusing on electroencephalographic (EEG) and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) studies, we provide a brief overview of the current research in both fields. In discussing these findings, we suggest that emotional visual information may allow more reliable predicting of auditory information compared to non-emotional visual information. In support of this hypothesis, we present a re-analysis of a previous data set that shows an inverse correlation between the N1 EEG response and the duration of visual emotional, but not non-emotional information. If the assumption that emotional content allows more reliable predicting can be corroborated in future studies, cross-modal prediction is a crucial factor in our understanding of multisensory emotion perception.

Effect of self-hypnosis on duration of labor and maternal and neonatal outcomes: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Werner, Anette; Uldbjerg, Niels; Zachariae, Robert; Nohr, Ellen A

2013-07-01

To examine the effect of a brief course in self-hypnosis for childbirth on duration of the labor and other birth outcomes. A randomized, controlled, single-blind trial. Aarhus University Hospital Skejby, Denmark. A total of 1222 healthy nulliparous women. A hypnosis group receiving three 1-h lessons in self-hypnosis with additional audio-recordings to ease childbirth, a relaxation group receiving three 1-h lessons in various relaxation methods and mindfulness with audio-recordings for additional training, and a usual-care group receiving only the usual antenatal care were compared. Duration of labor, birth complications, lactation success, caring for the child, and preferred future mode of delivery. No differences were found across the three groups on duration from arriving at the birth department until the expulsive phase of second stage of labor, the duration of the expulsive phase, or other birth outcomes. Fewer emergency and more elective cesarean sections occurred in the hypnosis group. No difference was seen across the groups for lactation success or caring for the child but fewer women in the hypnosis group preferred a cesarean section in future pregnancies because of fear of childbirth and negative birth experiences. Learning self-hypnosis to ease childbirth taught as a brief course failed to show any effects on duration of childbirth and other birth outcomes. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new infrastructure under nonstationarity, and an examination of risk adaptation measures which consider both short term and long term options simultaneously.

In-Space Structural Assembly: Applications and Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belvin, W. Keith; Doggett, Bill R.; Watson, Judith J.; Dorsey, John T.; Warren, Jay; Jones, Thomas C.; Komendera, Erik E.; Mann, Troy O.; Bowman, Lynn

2016-01-01

As NASA exploration moves beyond earth's orbit, the need exists for long duration space systems that are resilient to events that compromise safety and performance. Fortunately, technology advances in autonomy, robotic manipulators, and modular plug-and-play architectures over the past two decades have made in-space vehicle assembly and servicing possible at acceptable cost and risk. This study evaluates future space systems needed to support scientific observatories and human/robotic Mars exploration to assess key structural design considerations. The impact of in-space assembly is discussed to identify gaps in structural technology and opportunities for new vehicle designs to support NASA's future long duration missions.

Next-Generation Regimens: The Future of Hepatitis C Virus Therapy.

PubMed

Vizuete, John; Hubbard, Hope; Lawitz, Eric

2015-11-01

The treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) has undergone a period of rapid evolution. The era of combination direct antivirals has led to high rates of sustained viral response (SVR), limited toxicities, and more broad applicability across patient demographics. Even current therapies have their limitations, however, including genotype specificity and variable durations of treatment depending on the presence or absence of cirrhosis. Developing a fixed-duration pangenotypic regimen that can broadly treat all stages of fibrosis with equal rates of SVR in all patients, irrespective of treatment experience, is the goal of future therapies. This article reviews antivirals in development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Smoking topography and abstinence in adult female smokers.

PubMed

McClure, Erin A; Saladin, Michael E; Baker, Nathaniel L; Carpenter, Matthew J; Gray, Kevin M

2013-12-01

Preliminary evidence, within both adults and adolescents, suggests that the intensity with which cigarettes are smoked (i.e., smoking topography) is predictive of success during a cessation attempt. These reports have also shown topography to be superior compared to other variables, such as cigarettes per day, in the prediction of abstinence. The possibility that gender may influence this predictive relationship has not been evaluated but may be clinically useful in tailoring gender-specific interventions. Within the context of a clinical trial for smoking cessation among women, adult daily smokers completed a laboratory session that included a 1-hour ad libitum smoking period in which measures of topography were collected (N=135). Participants were then randomized to active medication (nicotine patch vs. varenicline) and abstinence was monitored for 4weeks. Among all smoking topography measures and all abstinence outcomes, a moderate association was found between longer puff duration and greater puff volume and continued smoking during the active 4-week treatment phase, but only within the nicotine patch group. Based on the weak topography-abstinence relationship among female smokers found in the current study, future studies should focus on explicit gender comparisons to examine if these associations are specific to or more robust in male smokers. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Results From the Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacqmin, David

1995-01-01

The Thermal Energy Storage (TES) experiments are designed to provide data to help researchers understand the long-duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage fluoride salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data, which have never been obtained before, have direct application to space-based solar dynamic power systems. These power systems will store solar energy in a thermal energy salt, such as lithium fluoride (LiF) or a eutectic of lithium fluoride/calcium difluoride (LiF-CaF2) (which melts at a lower temperature). The energy will be stored as the latent heat of fusion when the salt is melted by absorbing solar thermal energy. The stored energy will then be extracted during the shade portion of the orbit, enabling the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes have been developed to predict the performance of a spacebased solar dynamic power system. However, the analytical predictions must be verified experimentally before the analytical results can be used for future space power design applications. Four TES flight experiments will be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This article focuses on the flight results from the first experiment, TES-1, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code.

Preoperative Electrocardiogram Score for Predicting New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Gu, Jiwei; Andreasen, Jan J; Melgaard, Jacob; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Hansen, John; Schmidt, Erik B; Thorsteinsson, Kristinn; Graff, Claus

2017-02-01

To investigate if electrocardiogram (ECG) markers from routine preoperative ECGs can be used in combination with clinical data to predict new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following cardiac surgery. Retrospective observational case-control study. Single-center university hospital. One hundred consecutive adult patients (50 POAF, 50 without POAF) who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery, or combinations. Retrospective review of medical records and registration of POAF. Clinical data and demographics were retrieved from the Western Denmark Heart Registry and patient records. Paper tracings of preoperative ECGs were collected from patient records, and ECG measurements were read by two independent readers blinded to outcome. A subset of four clinical variables (age, gender, body mass index, and type of surgery) were selected to form a multivariate clinical prediction model for POAF and five ECG variables (QRS duration, PR interval, P-wave duration, left atrial enlargement, and left ventricular hypertrophy) were used in a multivariate ECG model. Adding ECG variables to the clinical prediction model significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.54 to 0.67 (with cross-validation). The best predictive model for POAF was a combined clinical and ECG model with the following four variables: age, PR-interval, QRS duration, and left atrial enlargement. ECG markers obtained from a routine preoperative ECG may be helpful in predicting new-onset POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating duration of central venous catheter at time of insertion: Clinician judgment and clinical predictors.

PubMed

Holmberg, Mathias J; Andersen, Lars W; Graver, Amanda; Wright, Sharon B; Yassa, David; Howell, Michael D; Donnino, Michael W; Cocchi, Michael N

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether clinicians can estimate the length of time a central venous catheter (CVC) will remain in place and to identify variables that may predict CVC duration. We conducted a prospective study of patients admitted to the intensive care unit over a 1-year period. Clinicians estimated the anticipated CVC duration at time of insertion. We collected demographics, medical history, type of intensive care unit, anatomical site of CVC placement, vital signs, laboratory values, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, mechanical ventilation, and use of vasopressors. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation between estimated and actual CVC time. We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of long duration (>5 days). We enrolled 200 patients; median age was 65 years (quartiles 52, 75); 91 (46%) were female; and mortality was 24%. Correlation between estimated and actual CVC time was low (r=0.26; r2=0.07; P<.001). Mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.97; P=.009) at time of insertion and a medical history of cancer (odds ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.75; P=.007) were significantly associated with long duration. Our results suggest a low correlation between clinician prediction and actual CVC duration. We did not find any strong predictors of long CVC duration identifiable at the time of insertion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The performance of thermal control coatings on LDEF and implications to future spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkes, Donald R.; Miller, Edgar R.; Mell, Richard J.; Lemaster, Paul S.; Zwiener, James M.

1993-01-01

The stability of thermal control coatings over the lifetime of a satellite or space platform is crucial to the success of the mission. With the increasing size, complexity, and duration of future missions, the stability of these materials becomes even more important. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) offered an excellent testbed to study the stability and interaction of thermal control coatings in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) space environment. Several experiments on LDEF exposed thermal control coatings to the space environment. This paper provides an overview of the different materials flown and their stability during the extended LDEF mission. The exposure conditions, exposure environment, and measurements of materials properties (both in-space and postflight) are described. The relevance of the results and the implications to the design and operation of future space vehicles are also discussed.

Effects of frequency and duration on psychometric functions for detection of increments and decrements in sinusoids in noise.

PubMed

Moore, B C; Peters, R W; Glasberg, B R

1999-12-01

Psychometric functions for detecting increments or decrements in level of sinusoidal pedestals were measured for increment and decrement durations of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 ms and for frequencies of 250, 1000, and 4000 Hz. The sinusoids were presented in background noise intended to mask spectral splatter. A three-interval, three-alternative procedure was used. The results indicated that, for increments, the detectability index d' was approximately proportional to delta I/I. For decrements, d' was approximately proportional to delta L. The slopes of the psychometric functions increased (indicating better performance) with increasing frequency for both increments and decrements. For increments, the slopes increased with increasing increment duration up to 200 ms at 250 and 1000 Hz, but at 4000 Hz they increased only up to 50 ms. For decrements, the slopes increased for durations up to 50 ms, and then remained roughly constant, for all frequencies. For a center frequency of 250 Hz, the slopes of the psychometric functions for increment detection increased with duration more rapidly than predicted by a "multiple-looks" hypothesis, i.e., more rapidly than the square root of duration, for durations up to 50 ms. For center frequencies of 1000 and 4000 Hz, the slopes increased less rapidly than predicted by a multiple-looks hypothesis, for durations greater than about 20 ms. The slopes of the psychometric functions for decrement detection increased with decrement duration at a rate slightly greater than the square root of duration, for durations up to 50 ms, at all three frequencies. For greater durations, the increase in slope was less than proportional to the square root of duration. The results were analyzed using a model incorporating a simulated auditory filter, a compressive nonlinearity, a sliding temporal integrator, and a decision device based on a template mechanism. The model took into account the effects of both the external noise and an assumed internal noise. The model was able to account for the major features of the data for both increment and decrement detection.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Factors influencing hypertrophy of the left lateral liver lobe after portal vein embolization.

PubMed

Malinowski, Maciej; Stary, Victoria; Lock, Johan F; Schulz, Antje; Jara, Maximilian; Seehofer, Daniel; Gebauer, Bernhard; Denecke, Timm; Geisel, Dominik; Neuhaus, Peter; Stockmann, Martin

2015-02-01

Portal vein embolization (PVE) before extended right hepatectomy leads to an increase of the future liver remnant (FLR) volume, but predictive factors for sufficient hypertrophy are still unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate parameters influencing the growth of FLR. Patients undergoing PVE prior hepatic resection were evaluated. PVE was done using polyvinyl alcohol particles only. Volumetric analysis was performed before embolization and before hepatectomy. Success of PVE was determined as percental growth of the future liver remnant. Seventy-seven patients were included, and three cohorts were formed according to the hypertrophy of FLR. FLR increased from 448.2 ± 187 to 475.5 ± 191 in the poor, from 315.3 ± 86 to 469.1 ± 142 in the moderate, and from 283.4 ± 68 to 400.4 ± 110 in the good hypertrophy group. More cases of recanalization of the portal vein were observed in patients with poor hypertrophy (p = 0.016). Small FLR before PVE predict higher growth of the FLR (p = 0.006). Duration between PVE and surgery differed significantly: 22 (poor) vs. 32 (good) days (p = 0.040). No recanalization, small initial FLR and longer time were assessed with better FLR hypertrophy. More sufficient PVE techniques and postponed hepatectomy might improve the outcome. Small initial FLR should not be a disclosure for curative hepatectomy.

Predictive factors of adherence to frequency and duration components in home exercise programs for neck and low back pain: an observational study

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Evidence suggests that to facilitate physical activity sedentary people may adhere to one component of exercise prescriptions (intensity, duration or frequency) without adhering to other components. Some experts have provided evidence for determinants of adherence to different components among healthy people. However, our understanding remains scarce in this area for patients with neck or low back pain. The aims of this study are to determine whether patients with neck or low back pain have different rates of adherence to exercise components of frequency per week and duration per session when prescribed with a home exercise program, and to identify if adherence to both exercise components have distinct predictive factors. Methods A cohort of one hundred eighty-four patients with chronic neck or low back pain who attended physiotherapy in eight primary care centers were studied prospectively one month after intervention. The study had three measurement periods: at baseline (measuring characteristics of patients and pain), at the end of physiotherapy intervention (measuring characteristics of the home exercise program) and a month later (measuring professional behaviors during clinical encounters, environmental factors and self-efficacy, and adherence behavior). Results Adherence to duration per session (70.9% ± 7.1) was more probable than adherence to frequency per week (60.7% ± 7.0). Self-efficacy was a relevant factor for both exercise components (p < 0.05). The total number of exercises prescribed was predictive of frequency adherence (p < 0.05). Professional behaviors have a distinct influence on exercise components. Frequency adherence is more probable if patients received clarification of their doubts (adjusted OR: 4.1; p < 0.05), and duration adherence is more probable if they are supervised during the learning of exercises (adjusted OR: 3.3; p < 0.05). Conclusion We have shown in a clinic-based study that adherence to exercise prescription frequency and duration components have distinct levels and predictive factors. We recommend additional study, and advise that differential attention be given in clinical practice to each exercise component for improving adherence. PMID:19995464

Interference problems for nongeostationary satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sollfrey, W.

1984-01-01

The interference problems faced by nongeostationary satellites may be of major significance. A general discussion indicates the scope of the problems and describes several configurations of importance. Computer programs are described, which are employed by NASA/JPL and the U.S. Air Force Satellite Control Facility to provide interference-free scheduling of commands and data transmission. Satellite system mission planners are not concerned with the precise prediction of interference episodes, but rather with the expected total amount of interference, the mean and maximum duration of events, and the mean spacing between episodes. The procedures in the theory of probability developed by the author which permit calculation of such quantities are described and applied to several real cases. It may be anticipated that the problems will become steadily worse in the future as more and more data transmissions attempt to occupy the same frequency band.

Word Durations in Non-Native English

PubMed Central

Baker, Rachel E.; Baese-Berk, Melissa; Bonnasse-Gahot, Laurent; Kim, Midam; Van Engen, Kristin J.; Bradlow, Ann R.

2010-01-01

In this study, we compare the effects of English lexical features on word duration for native and non-native English speakers and for non-native speakers with different L1s and a range of L2 experience. We also examine whether non-native word durations lead to judgments of a stronger foreign accent. We measured word durations in English paragraphs read by 12 American English (AE), 20 Korean, and 20 Chinese speakers. We also had AE listeners rate the `accentedness' of these non-native speakers. AE speech had shorter durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, greater reduction of function words, and less between-speaker variance than non-native speech. However, both AE and non-native speakers showed sensitivity to lexical predictability by reducing second mentions and high frequency words. Non-native speakers with more native-like word durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, and greater function word reduction were perceived as less accented. Overall, these findings identify word duration as an important and complex feature of foreign-accented English. PMID:21516172

Treatment, alcoholics anonymous, and 16-year changes in impulsivity and legal problems among men and women with alcohol use disorders.

PubMed

Blonigen, Daniel M; Timko, Christine; Moos, Bernice S; Moos, Rudolf H

2009-09-01

The link between impulsive personality traits and alcohol use disorders (AUDs) is well established. No studies, however, have investigated whether receipt of help for AUDs predicts change in impulsivity or whether such change is associated with relevant outcomes such as legal problems. The present study examined predictive associations between the duration of help for AUDs (Alcoholics Anonymous [AA], professional treatment) and impulsivity and legal problems over 16 years in men and women with AUDs. Participants who were initially untreated for their AUDs (n(men) = 332, n(women) = 296) completed follow-up telephone interviews at 1 and 16 years after their baseline assessment. Impulsivity and legal problems declined between baseline and the 1-year and 16-year follow-ups among both women and men. A longer duration of participation in AA predicted a decline in impulsivity at both follow-up assessments, and, in turn, a decline in impulsivity predicted a decline in legal problems at Years 1 and 16. In addition, a longer duration of participation in AA predicted fewer legal problems at Year 1, and this association was moderated by gender (significant in men) and impulsivity (significant for individuals with higher baseline scores). The results highlight the potential for AA and professional treatment to reduce the expression of impulsivity and related disinhibitory traits and legal problems in individuals with AUDs.

The Role of Social-Cognitive and Emotional Factors on Exclusive Breastfeeding Duration.

PubMed

Shepherd, Lee; Walbey, Cherokee; Lovell, Brian

2017-08-01

Previous research has suggested that exclusive breastfeeding is likely to be predicted by social-cognitive variables and fear. However, there is little research assessing the role of regret and self-conscious emotions (e.g., pride and guilt) in promoting exclusive breastfeeding. Research aim: The primary aim of this research was to determine whether social-cognitive variables, fear, regret, and self-conscious emotions predict exclusive breastfeeding duration. The secondary aim of this research was to assess whether these factors predict infant-feeding choice (i.e., exclusively breastfed, combination fed, or generally formula fed). In this nonexperimental one-group self-report survey, 375 mothers rated social-cognitive variables toward breastfeeding (attitude, subjective norm, perceived control, and self-efficacy), their fear toward inadequate nutrition from breastfeeding and breastfeeding damaging their physical appearance, and the extent to which mothers may feel pride toward breastfeeding and negative self-conscious emotions (guilt and shame) and regret for not breastfeeding their infant. Exclusive breastfeeding duration was positively predicted by self-efficacy, pride, and regret but negatively predicted by the fear toward inadequate nutrition. We also found that in contrast with exclusive breastfeeding, generally formula feeding an infant was associated with lower self-efficacy, pride, and regret but higher subjective norm and fear toward inadequate nutrition through breastfeeding. The authors argue that it is important to consider the role of self-conscious emotions and regret on exclusive breastfeeding.

Predicting the acute behavioral effects in rats inhaling toluene (or up to 24 hrs: Inhaled vs. internal dose metrics.

EPA Science Inventory

The acute toxicity oftoluene, a model volatile organic compound (VOC), depends on the concentration (C) and duration (t) ofexposure, and guidelines for acute exposures have traditionally used ext relationships to extrapolate protective and/or effective concentrations across durat...

Physiological Correlations with Short, Medium, and Long Cycling Time-Trial Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borszcz, Fernando K.; Tramontin, Artur F.; de Souza, Kristopher M.; Carminatti, Lorival J.; Costa, Vitor P.

2018-01-01

Purpose: Several studies have demonstrated that physiological variables predict cycling endurance performance. However, it is still unclear whether the predictors will change over different performance durations. The aim of this study was to assess the correlations between physiological variables and cycling time trials with different durations.…

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jingwen; Miao, Chiyuan; Tang, Xu; Duan, Qingyun; He, Xiaojia

2018-02-01

Drought is one of the world's most recurrent and destructive hazards, and the evolution of drought events has become increasingly complex against a background of climate change and changing human activities. Over the last five decades, there have been frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau in China. In this study, we used the nonparametric standardized runoff index (NSRI) to investigate the temporal characteristics of hydrological drought in 17 Loess Plateau catchments during the period 1961-2013. Furthermore, we used a cross-wavelet transform to reveal linkages between an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the NSRI series. The primary results indicated that the annual and seasonal NSRI series displayed statistically significantly downward trends in all catchments, with the only exception being the winter NSRI series in Yanhe. Furthermore, our analyses showed downward trends persisting into the future in all 17 catchments except Yanhe. We also found that, overall, the risk of hydrological drought was high on the Loess Plateau, with the mean duration at the seasonal scale exceeding 4 months and the mean duration at the annual scale exceeding 12 months. Moreover, during recent years, the trend towards hydrological drought was greater in the spring than in other seasons. ENSO events were closely associated with annual and seasonal hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, and the impact of ENSO events was stronger in the southeast of the plateau than the northwest at both seasonal and annual scales. These results may provide valuable information about the evolutionary characteristics of hydrological drought across the Loess Plateau and may also be useful for predicting and mitigating future hydrological drought on the plateau.

A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

2016-09-01

The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

2009-01-01

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Fluid Shifts Before, During, and After Prolonged Space Flight and their Association with Intracranial Pressure and Visual Impairment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stenger, M.; Lee, S.; Platts, S.; Macias, B.; Lui, J.; Ebert, D.; Sargsyan, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Alferova, I.; Yarmanova, E.;

NEXT Long-Duration Test Neutralizer Performance and Erosion Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2009-01-01

The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced capabilities at a low total development cost. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster based on mission analyses. As of September 2, 2009, the thruster has accumulated 24,400 hr of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 434 kg of xenon, surpassing the NASA Solar Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program thruster propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal of 450 kg. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.1 10(exp 6zzz0 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. A reduction in neutralizer flow margin has been the only appreciable source of thruster performance degradation. The behavior of the neutralizer is not easily predicted due to both erosion and deposition observed in previous wear tests. Spot-to-plume mode transition flow data and in-situ erosion results for the LDT neutralizer are discussed. This loss of flow margin has been addressed through a combination of a design change in the prototype-model neutralizer to increase flow margin at low emission current and to update the NEXT throttle table to ensure adequate flow margin as a function of propellant throughput processed. The new throttle table will be used for future LDT operations. The performance of the NEXT LDT neutralizer is consistent with that observed for long-life hollow cathodes. The neutralizer life-limiting failure modes are progressing as expected and the neutralizer data indicate none of the neutralizer failures are imminent.

Radiation Environments for Future Human Exploration Throughout the Solar System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Linker, J.; Riley, P.; Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Spence, H. E.; Desai, M. I.; Mikic, Z.; Joyce, C. J.; Kozarev, K. A.; Townsend, L. W.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

2016-12-01

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. The ability to predict when and where large events will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The largest events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups (also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protons accelerated very low in the corona by the passage of coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven compressions or shocks and from flares travel near the speed of light, arriving at Earth minutes after the eruptive event. Whether these particles actually reach Earth, the Moon, Mars (or any other point) depends on their transport in the interplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock. Recent contemporaneous observations during the largest events in almost a decade show the unique longitudinal distributions of this ionizing radiation broadly distributed from sources near the Sun and yet highly isolated during the passage of CME shocks. Over the last decade, we have observed space weather events as the solar wind exhibits extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small particle radiation events. We have used observations from LRO/CRaTER to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions for human space exploration throughout the inner solar system. While these conditions are not a show-stopper for long-duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic ray radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits mission durations. If the heliospheric magnetic field continues to weaken over time, as is likely, then allowable mission durations will decrease correspondingly. Thus, we examine the rapidly changing radiation environment and its implications for human exploration destinations throughout the inner solar system.

Longitudinal associations between sleep and anxiety during pregnancy, and the moderating effect of resilience, using parallel process latent growth curve models.

PubMed

van der Zwan, Judith Esi; de Vente, Wieke; Tolvanen, Mimmi; Karlsson, Hasse; Buil, J Marieke; Koot, Hans M; Paavonen, E Juulia; Polo-Kantola, Päivi; Huizink, Anja C; Karlsson, Linnea

2017-12-01

For many women, pregnancy-related sleep disturbances and pregnancy-related anxiety change as pregnancy progresses and both are associated with lower maternal quality of life and less favorable birth outcomes. Thus, the interplay between these two problems across pregnancy is of interest. In addition, psychological resilience may explain individual differences in this association, as it may promote coping with both sleep disturbances and anxiety, and thereby reduce their mutual effects. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to examine whether sleep quality and sleep duration, and changes in sleep are associated with the level of and changes in anxiety during pregnancy. Furthermore, the study tested the moderating effect of resilience on these associations. At gestational weeks 14, 24, and 34, 532 pregnant women from the FinnBrain Birth Cohort Study in Finland filled out questionnaires on general sleep quality, sleep duration and pregnancy-related anxiety; resilience was assessed in week 14. Parallel process latent growth curve models showed that shorter initial sleep duration predicted a higher initial level of anxiety, and a higher initial anxiety level predicted a faster shortening of sleep duration. Changes in sleep duration and changes in anxiety over the course of pregnancy were not related. The predicted moderating effect of resilience was not found. The results suggested that pregnant women reporting anxiety problems should also be screened for sleeping problems, and vice versa, because women who experienced one of these pregnancy-related problems were also at risk of experiencing or developing the other problem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

Ability of High-Resolution Manometry to Determine Feeding Method and to Predict Aspiration Pneumonia in Patients With Dysphagia.

PubMed

Park, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yong-Taek; Yi, Youbin; Lee, Jung-Sang; Park, Jung Ho; Yoon, Kyung Jae

2017-07-01

The introduction of high-resolution manometry (HRM) offered an improved method to objectively analyze the status of pharynx and esophagus. At present, HRM for patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia has been poorly studied. We aimed to determine feeding method and predict the development of aspiration pneumonia in patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia using HRM. We recruited 120 patients with dysphagia who underwent both HRM and videofluoroscopic swallow study. HRM was used to estimate pressure events from velopharynx (VP) to upper esophageal sphincter (UES). Feeding methods were determined to non-oral or oral feeding according to dysphagia severity. We prospectively followed patients to assess the development of aspiration pneumonia. VP maximal pressure and UES relaxation duration were independently associated with non-oral feeding. Non-oral feeding was determined based on optimal cutoff value of 105.0 mm Hg for VP maximal pressure (95.0% sensitivity and 70.0% specificity) and 0.45 s for UES relaxation duration (76.3% sensitivity and 57.5% specificity), respectively. During a mean follow-up of 18.8 months, 15.8% of patients developed aspiration pneumonia. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, VP maximal pressure (P<0.01) and UES relaxation duration (P<0.05) independently predicted the development of aspiration pneumonia. Cumulative incidence of aspiration pneumonia was significantly increased in patients with readings below optimal cutoff values for VP maximal pressure (P<0.01) and UES relaxation duration (P<0.01), individually. We first established the optimal thresholds for HRM parameters to determine feeding method and predict the development of aspiration pneumonia in patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia.

Impact of severity of drug use on discrete emotions recognition in polysubstance abusers.

PubMed

Fernández-Serrano, María José; Lozano, Oscar; Pérez-García, Miguel; Verdejo-García, Antonio

2010-06-01

Neuropsychological studies support the association between severity of drug intake and alterations in specific cognitive domains and neural systems, but there is disproportionately less research on the neuropsychology of emotional alterations associated with addiction. One of the key aspects of adaptive emotional functioning potentially relevant to addiction progression and treatment is the ability to recognize basic emotions in the faces of others. Therefore, the aims of this study were: (i) to examine facial emotion recognition in abstinent polysubstance abusers, and (ii) to explore the association between patterns of quantity and duration of use of several drugs co-abused (including alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and MDMA) and the ability to identify discrete facial emotional expressions portraying basic emotions. We compared accuracy of emotion recognition of facial expressions portraying six basic emotions (measured with the Ekman Faces Test) between polysubstance abusers (PSA, n=65) and non-drug using comparison individuals (NDCI, n=30), and used regression models to explore the association between quantity and duration of use of the different drugs co-abused and indices of recognition of each of the six emotions, while controlling for relevant socio-demographic and affect-related confounders. Results showed: (i) that PSA had significantly poorer recognition than NDCI for facial expressions of anger, disgust, fear and sadness; (ii) that measures of quantity and duration of drugs used significantly predicted poorer discrete emotions recognition: quantity of cocaine use predicted poorer anger recognition, and duration of cocaine use predicted both poorer anger and fear recognition. Severity of cocaine use also significantly predicted overall recognition accuracy. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal Relationships Between Napping and Nocturnal Sleep in Healthy Adolescents.

PubMed

Jakubowski, Karen P; Hall, Martica H; Lee, Laisze; Matthews, Karen A

2017-01-01

Many adolescents do not achieve the recommended 9 hr of sleep per night and report daytime napping, perhaps because it makes up for short nocturnal sleep. This article tests temporal relationships between daytime naps and nighttime sleep as measured by actigraphy and diary among 236 healthy high school students during one school week. Mixed model analyses adjusted for age, race, and gender demonstrated that shorter actigraphy-assessed nocturnal sleep duration predicted longer napping (measured by actigraphy and diary) the next day. Napping (by actigraphy and diary) predicted shorter nocturnal sleep duration and worse sleep efficiency that night measured by actigraphy. Diary-reported napping also predicted poorer self-reported sleep quality that night. Frequent napping may interfere with nocturnal sleep during adolescence.

Slow Wave Sleep and Long Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Arias, D.; Leveton, L.

2011-01-01

To review the literature on slow wave sleep (SWS) in long duration space flight, and place this within the context of the broader literature on SWS particularly with respect to analogous environments such as the Antarctic. Explore how SWS could be measured within the International Space Station (ISS) context with the aim to utilize the ISS as an analog for future extra-orbital long duration missions. Discuss the potential use of emergent minimally intrusive wireless technologies like ZEO for integrated prelaunch, flight, and return to Earth analysis and optimization of SWS (and general quality of sleep).

Prediction of Human Activity by Discovering Temporal Sequence Patterns.

PubMed

Li, Kang; Fu, Yun

2014-08-01

Early prediction of ongoing human activity has become more valuable in a large variety of time-critical applications. To build an effective representation for prediction, human activities can be characterized by a complex temporal composition of constituent simple actions and interacting objects. Different from early detection on short-duration simple actions, we propose a novel framework for long -duration complex activity prediction by discovering three key aspects of activity: Causality, Context-cue, and Predictability. The major contributions of our work include: (1) a general framework is proposed to systematically address the problem of complex activity prediction by mining temporal sequence patterns; (2) probabilistic suffix tree (PST) is introduced to model causal relationships between constituent actions, where both large and small order Markov dependencies between action units are captured; (3) the context-cue, especially interactive objects information, is modeled through sequential pattern mining (SPM), where a series of action and object co-occurrence are encoded as a complex symbolic sequence; (4) we also present a predictive accumulative function (PAF) to depict the predictability of each kind of activity. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated on two experimental scenarios with two data sets for each: action-only prediction and context-aware prediction. Our method achieves superior performance for predicting global activity classes and local action units.

Variables Measured during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing as Predictors of Mortality in Chronic Systolic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Keteyian, Steven J.; Patel, Mahesh; Kraus, William E.; Brawner, Clinton A.; McConnell, Timothy R.; Piña, Ileana L.; Leifer, Eric S.; Fleg, Jerome L.; Blackburn, Gordon; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Chase, Paul J.; Piner, Lucy; Vest, Marianne; O’Connor, Christopher M.; Ehrman, Jonathan K.; Walsh, Mary N.; Ewald, Gregory; Bensimhon, Dan; Russell, Stuart D.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Data from a cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) test are used to determine prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). However, few published studies have simultaneously compared the relative prognostic strength of multiple CPX variables. OBJECTIVES We sought to describe the strength of the association among variables measured during a CPX test and all-cause mortality in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), including the influence of sex and patient effort, as measured by respiratory exchange ratio (RER). METHODS Among patients (n = 2,100, 29% women) enrolled in the HF-ACTION (HF-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of exercise traiNing) trial, 10 CPX test variables measured at baseline (e.g., peak oxygen uptake [VO2], exercise duration, percent predicted peak VO2 [%ppVO2], ventilatory efficiency) were examined. RESULTS Over a median follow-up of 32 months, there were 357 deaths. All CPX variables, except RER, were related to all-cause mortality (all p < 0.0001). Both %ppVO2 and exercise duration were equally able to predict (Wald χ2: ~141) and discriminate (c-index: 0.69) mortality. Peak VO2 (mL·kg−1·min−1) was the strongest predictor of mortality among men (Wald χ2: 129) and exercise duration among women (Wald χ2: 41). Multivariable analyses showed that %ppVO2, exercise duration, and peak VO2 (mL·kg−1·min−1) were similarly able to predict and discriminate mortality. In men, a 10% 1-year mortality rate corresponded to a peak VO2 of 10.9 mL·kg−1·min−1 versus 5.3 mlkg−1/min−1 in women. CONCLUSIONS Peak VO2, exercise duration, and % ppVO2 carried the strongest ability to predict and discriminate the likelihood of death in patients with HFrEF. The prognosis associated with a given peak V2 differed by sex. PMID:26892413

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

The paradox of a long grounding during West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in Ross Sea.

PubMed

Bart, Philip J; Krogmeier, Benjamin J; Bart, Manon P; Tulaczyk, Slawek

2017-04-28

Marine geological data show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) advanced to the eastern Ross Sea shelf edge during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and eventually retreated ~1000 km to the current grounding-line position on the inner shelf. During the early deglacial, the WAIS deposited a voluminous stack of overlapping grounding zone wedges (GZWs) on the outer shelf of the Whales Deep Basin. The large sediment volume of the GZW cluster suggests that the grounding-line position of the paleo-Bindschadler Ice Stream was relatively stationary for a significant time interval. We used an upper bound estimate of paleo-sediment flux to investigate the lower bound duration over which the ice stream would have deposited sediment to account for the GZW volume. Our calculations show that the cluster represents more than three millennia of ice-stream sedimentation. This long duration grounding was probably facilitated by rapid GZW growth. The subsequent punctuated large-distance (~200 km) grounding-line retreat may have been a highly non-linear ice sheet response to relatively continuous external forcing such as gradual climate warming or sea-level rise. These findings indicate that reliable predictions of future WAIS retreat may require incorporation of realistic calculations of sediment erosion, transport and deposition.

Optimizing the arrival, waiting, and NPO times of children on the day of pediatric endoscopy procedures.

PubMed

Smallman, Bettina; Dexter, Franklin

2010-03-01

Research in predictive variability of operating room (OR) times has been performed using data from multidisciplinary, tertiary hospitals with mostly adult patients. In this article, we discuss case-duration prediction for children receiving general anesthesia for endoscopy. We critique which of the several types of OR management decisions dependent on accuracy of prediction are relevant to series (lists) of brief pediatric anesthetics. OR information system data were obtained for all children (aged 18 years and younger) undergoing a gastroenterology procedure with an anesthesiologist over 21 months. Summaries of data were used for a qualitative, systematic review of prior studies to learn which apply to brief pediatric cases. Patient arrival times were changed to be based on the statistical method relating actual and scheduled start times (Wachtel and Dexter, Anesth Analg 2007;105:127-40). Even perfect case-duration prediction would not affect whether a brief case was performed on a certain date and/or in a certain OR. There was no evidence of usefulness in calculating the probability that one case would last longer than another or in resequencing cases to influence postanesthesia care unit staffing or patient waiting from scheduled start times. The only decision for which the accuracy of case-duration prediction mattered was for the shortest time that preceding cases in the OR may take. Knowledge of the preceding procedures in the OR was not useful for that purpose because there were hundreds of combinations of preceding procedures and some cases cancelled. Instead, patient ready times were chosen based on 5% lower prediction bounds for ratios of actual to scheduled OR times. The approach was useful based on a 30% reduction in patient waiting times from scheduled start times with corresponding expected reductions in average and peak numbers of patients in the holding area. For brief pediatric OR anesthetics, predictive variability of case durations matters principally to the extent that it affects appropriate patient ready times. Such times should not be chosen by having patients start fasting, arrive, and be ready fixed numbers of hours before their scheduled start times.

One-year course and predictors of outcome of adolescent depression: a case-control study in Finland.

PubMed

Karlsson, Linnea; Kiviruusu, Olli; Miettunen, Jouko; Heilä, Hannele; Holi, Matti; Ruuttu, Titta; Tuisku, Virpi; Pelkonen, Mirjami; Marttunen, Mauri

2008-05-01

Clinical studies on the outcome of adolescent depression beyond treatment trials are scarce. To investigate the impact of characteristics of the depressive episode and current comorbidity on the 1-year outcome of depression. A sample of 174 consecutive adolescent psychiatric outpatients (aged 13 through 19 years) and 17 school-derived matched controls, all with unipolar depressive disorders at baseline, were reinterviewed for DSM-IV Axis I and Axis II disorders at 12 months. The study was conducted between January 1998 and May 2002. The outpatients had equal recovery rate and episode duration but shorter time to recurrence than the controls. Among the outpatients, Axis II comorbidity predicted shorter time to recurrence (p = .02). Longer time to recovery was predicted by earlier lifetime age at onset for depression (p = .02), poor psychosocial functioning (p = .003), depressive disorder diagnosis (p

Prediction of Happy-Sad Mood from Daily Behaviors and Previous Sleep History

PubMed Central

Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy; McHill, Andrew W.; Phillips, Andrew J. K.; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B.; Picard, Rosalind W.

2016-01-01

We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants, for 30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other factors in college students. We analyzed daily and monthly behavior and physiology and identified factors that affect mood, including how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified the participants into high/low mood using support vector machines. We found statistically significant associations among sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors such as the percentage of neutral social interactions and the total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity was a more important discriminator of mood than sleep duration for most participants, although both variables predicted happy/sad mood with from 70-82% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of happy/sad mood varied for different groups of individuals. PMID:26737854

Determinants of Acute Kidney Injury Duration After Cardiac Surgery: An Externally Validated Tool

PubMed Central

Brown, Jeremiah R.; Kramer, Robert S.; MacKenzie, Todd A.; Coca, Steven G.; Sint, Kyaw; Parikh, Chirag R.

2013-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) duration following cardiac surgery is associated with poor survival in a dose-dependent manner. However, it is not known what peri-operative risk factors contribute to prolonged AKI and delayed recovery. We sought to identify peri-operative risk factors that predict duration of AKI, a complication that effects short and long term survival. Methods We studied 4,987 consecutive cardiac surgery patients from 2002 through 2007. AKI was defined as a ≥0.3 (mg/dL) or ≥50% increase in SCr from baseline. Duration of AKI was defined by the number of days AKI was present. Step-wise multivariable negative binomial regression analysis was conducted using peri-operative risk factors for AKI duration. C-index was estimated by Kendall’s tau. Results AKI developed in 39% of patients with a median duration of AKI at 3 days and ranged from 1 to 108 days. Patients without AKI had duration of zero days. Independent predictors of AKI duration included baseline patient and disease characteristics, operative and post-operative factors. Prediction for mean duration of AKI was developed using coefficients from the regression model and externally validated the model on 1,219 cardiac surgery patients in a separate cardiac surgery cohort (TRIBE-AKI). The C-index was 0.65 (p<0.001) for the derivation cohort and 0.62 (p<0.001) for the validation cohort. Conclusion We identified and externally validated peri-operative predictors of AKI duration. These risk-factors will be useful to evaluate a patient’s risk for the tempo of recovery from AKI after cardiac surgery and subsequent short and long term survival. The level of awareness created by working with these risk factors have implications regarding positive changes in processes of care that have the potential to decrease the incidence and mitigate AKI. PMID:22206952

The predictive value of P-wave duration by signal-averaged electrocardiogram in acute ST elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Shturman, Alexander; Bickel, Amitai; Atar, Shaul

2012-08-01

The prognostic value of P-wave duration has been previously evaluated by signal-averaged ECG (SAECG) in patients with various arrhythmias not associated with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To investigate the clinical correlates and prognostic value of P-wave duration in patients with ST elevation AMI (STEMI). The patients (n = 89) were evaluated on the first, second and third day after admission, as well as one week and one month post-AMI. Survival was determined 2 years after the index STEMI. In comparison with the upper normal range of P-wave duration (<120 msec), the P-wave duration in STEMI patients was significantly increased on the first day (135.31 +/- 29.29 msec, P < 0.001), up to day 7 (127.17 +/- 30.02 msec, P = 0.0455). The most prominent differences were observed in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < or = 40% (155.47 +/- 33.8 msec), compared to LVEF > 40% (128.79 +/- 28 msec) (P = 0.001). P-wave duration above 120 msec was significantly correlated with increased complication rate; namely, sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmia (36%), congestive heart failure (41%), atrial fibrillation (11%), recurrent angina (14%), and re-infarction (8%) (P = 0.012, odds ratio 4.267, 95% confidence interval 1.37-13.32). P-wave duration of 126 msec on the day of admission was found to have the highest predictive value for in-hospital complications including LVEF 40% (area under the curve 0.741, P < 0.001). However, we did not find a significant correlation between P-wave duration and mortality after multivariate analysis. P-wave duration as evaluated by SAECG correlates negatively with LVEF post-STEMI, and P-wave duration above 126 msec can be utilized as a non-invasive predictor of in-hospital complications and low LVEF following STEMI.

Changes in discharge dynamics under the constraints of local and global changes in the Chao Lake basin (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Y.; Salles, C.; Rodier, C.; Crès, F.-N.; Huang, L.; Tournoud, M.-G.

2012-04-01

Located on the Yangtze basin, the Chao Lake is the fifth largest freshwater lake in China and of great importance in terms of water resources and aquaculture. Its catchment (9130 km2) includes the city of Hefei and large extends of agricultural and rural areas. Fast changes are expected in land uses and agricultural practices for the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. The consequences of these changes on the sustainability of the water inflows into the lake are a major issue for the economical development of the Chao Lake area even though they are little-known. Our study aims to give tools for estimating such consequences, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and model parameters. The dynamics of rivers flowing into the Chao Lake is not very well-known, except for the Fengle River. The Fengle catchment (1480 km2) is mainly rural. River discharges are recorded at Taoxi station, upstream its outlet into the lake. 20-year records of daily discharges are available. Nine rain gauges, with daily data, daily temperature and evapotranspiration data are also available. The current dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized in terms of flood frequencies on discharge-duration-frequency curves. The ATHYS freely available hydrological tool (www.athys-soft.org) is used to calibrate and validate a distributed model of the Fengle catchment. Four calibration runs are done on four independent 5-year discharge records. Four different sets of model parameters are discussed. The model is then run for validation. The uncertainties in model predictions are evaluated in terms of errors in the simulated discharges during the validation period, with regards to the 5-year period used for calibration. The model is then applied on scenarios of changes in land uses and climate. Uncertainties in scenarios of changes are estimated through literature review. The future dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized on discharge-duration-frequency curves. Results are discussed with regards to the uncertainties in model predictions and scenarios changes. The next step of this study will be to extrapolate the results observed at the scale of the Fengle river as benchmarks for all the rural catchments of the Chao Lake basin. Predictions of changes in the discharge dynamics will then be given at the Chao Lake basin scale.

Self-Reported Sleep Duration in Relation to Incident Stroke Symptoms: Nuances by Body Mass and Race from the REGARDS Study

PubMed Central

Ruiter Petrov, Megan E.; Letter, Abraham J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Kleindorfer, Dawn

2013-01-01

Objectives Determine, amongst employed persons with low risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), if sleep duration is associated with incident stroke symptoms, independent of body mass index (BMI), and if sleep duration mediates racial differences in stroke symptoms. Methods In 2008, 5,666 employed participants (US blacks and whites, ≥45years) from the longitudinal and nationally-representative REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, self-reported their average sleep duration. Participants had no history of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke symptoms, and were low risk for OSA. After the sleep assessment, self-reported stroke symptoms were collected at six-month intervals, up to 3 years (M=751 days). Interval-censored, parametric survival models were conducted to estimate hazard ratios predicting time from sleep duration measurement (<6, 6-6.9, 7-7.9(reference), 8-8.9, ≥9 hours) to first stroke symptom. Adjusted models included demographics, stroke risk factors, psychological symptoms, health behaviors, and diet. Results During follow-up, 224 participants reported ≥1 stroke symptom. In the unadjusted model, short sleep (<6hrs) significantly predicted increased risk of stroke symptoms, but not in adjusted models. Stratification by BMI revealed a significant association between short sleep duration and stroke symptoms only for normal BMI persons in unadjusted (HR: 2.93, 95%CI: 1.38-6.22) and fully adjusted models (HR: 4.19, 95%CI: 1.62-10.84). The mediating effect of sleep duration on the relationship between race and stroke symptoms was borderline significant in normal weight participants. Conclusions Among middle-aged to older employed individuals of normal weight and low risk of OSA, self-reported short sleep duration is prospectively associated with increased risk of stroke symptoms. PMID:24119626

Factors predictive of risk for complications in patients with oesophageal foreign bodies.

PubMed

Sung, Sang Hun; Jeon, Seong Woo; Son, Hyuk Su; Kim, Sung Kook; Jung, Min Kyu; Cho, Chang Min; Tak, Won Young; Kweon, Young Oh

2011-08-01

Reports on predictive risk factors associated with complications of ingested oesophageal foreign bodies are rare. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive risk factors associated with the complications of oesophageal foreign bodies. Three hundred sixteen cases with foreign bodies in the oesophagus were retrospectively investigated. The predictive risk factors for complications after foreign body ingestion were analysed by multivariate logistic regression, and included age, size and type of foreign body ingested, duration of impaction, and the level of foreign body impaction. The types of oesophageal foreign bodies included fish bones (37.0%), food (19.0%), and metals (18.4%). The complications associated with foreign bodies were ulcers (21.2%), lacerations (14.9%), erosions (12.0%), and perforation (1.9%). Multivariate analysis showed that the duration of impaction (p<0.001), and the type (p<0.001) and size of the foreign bodies (p<0.001) were significant independent risk factors associated with the development of complications in patients with oesophageal foreign bodies. In patients with oesophageal foreign bodies, the risk of complications was increased with a longer duration of impaction, bone type, and larger size. Copyright © 2011 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of Foreshock Occurrence with Mainshock Depth, Rake, and Magnitude from the High Precision Catalog for Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaff, D. P.; Waldhauser, F.; Lerner-Lam, A.

2010-12-01

Foreshocks are perhaps the best-documented and most undisputed precursors to some large earthquakes. The question remains, however, if foreshocks have any more predictive power for future mainshocks than any other earthquake. Several researchers argue for a single unifying triggering law for foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. An alternate model is that foreshocks are the byproduct of an aseismic pre-slip phase that scales with mainshock magnitude. In this case foreshocks are different than other earthquakes and have predictive value for the mainshock location, origin time, and magnitude. We examine 612 mainshocks with M ≥ 4 from the cross-correlation double-difference catalog for northern California. 235 (44%) of these had foreshock sequences, providing us with a data set more than an order of magnitude larger than those used in previous studies. We are able to confirm with improved accuracy correlations of foreshock occurrence and characteristics with depth. The proportion of mainshocks with associated foreshocks, the number of foreshocks in the sequence, the foreshock duration, and the foreshock radius in map view all decrease with increasing depth, all with statistical significance above 95%. This supports models where increasing normal stress due to lithostatic load inhibits foreshock occurrence. Other M ≥ 4 events that were classified as aftershocks of larger events did not show the depth dependence. However, our analysis does not confirm a previous observation that increased normal stress due to tectonic loading appears to inhibit foreshock occurrence. We observe a negative correlation of foreshock magnitude with foreshock duration which is consistent with a model of mainshocks triggered by increased pore pressure. We observe a statistically significant relationship between foreshock magnitude and mainshock magnitude, lending support to the pre-slip model.

Gravitational lensing of gravitational waves: a statistical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shun-Sheng; Mao, Shude; Zhao, Yuetong; Lu, Youjun

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the strong gravitational lensing of gravitational waves (GWs) from a statistical perspective, with particular focus on the high frequency GWs from stellar binary black hole coalescences. These are most promising targets for ground-based detectors such as Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (aLIGO) and the proposed Einstein Telescope (ET) and can be safely treated under the geometrical optics limit for GW propagation. We perform a thorough calculation of the lensing rate, by taking account of effects caused by the ellipticity of lensing galaxies, lens environments, and magnification bias. We find that in certain GW source rate scenarios, we should be able to observe strongly lensed GW events once per year (˜1 yr-1) in the aLIGO survey at its design sensitivity; for the proposed ET survey, the rate could be as high as ˜80 yr-1. These results depend on the estimate of GW source abundance, and hence can be correspondingly modified with an improvement in our understanding of the merger rate of stellar binary black holes. We also compute the fraction of four-image lens systems in each survey, predicting it to be ˜30 per cent for the aLIGO survey and ˜6 per cent for the ET survey. Finally, we evaluate the possibility of missing some images due to the finite survey duration, by presenting the probability distribution of lensing time delays. We predict that this selection bias will be insignificant in future GW surveys, as most of the lens systems ({˜ } 90{per cent}) will have time delays less than ˜1 month, which will be far shorter than survey durations.

A radiographic study of permanent molar development in wild Virunga mountain gorillas of known chronological age from Rwanda.

PubMed

Kralick, Alexandra E; Loring Burgess, M; Glowacka, Halszka; Arbenz-Smith, Keely; McGrath, Kate; Ruff, Christopher B; Chan, King Chong; Cranfield, Michael R; Stoinski, Tara S; Bromage, Timothy G; Mudakikwa, Antoine; McFarlin, Shannon C

2017-05-01

While dental development is important to life history investigations, data from wild known-aged great apes are scarce. We report on the first radiographic examination of dental development in wild Virunga mountain gorillas, using known-age skeletal samples recovered in Rwanda. In 43 individuals (0.0-14.94 years), we collected radiographs of mandibular molars, and where possible, cone beam CT scans. Molar crown and root calcification status was assessed using two established staging systems, and age prediction equations generated using polynomial regression. Results were compared to available data from known-age captive and wild chimpanzees. Mountain gorillas generally fell within reported captive chimpanzee distributions or exceeded them, exhibiting older ages at equivalent radiographic stages of development. Differences reflect delayed initiation and/or an extended duration of second molar crown development, and extended first and second molar root development, in mountain gorillas compared to captive chimpanzees. However, differences in the duration of molar root development were less evident compared to wild chimpanzees. Despite sample limitations, our findings extend the known range of variation in radiographic estimates of molar formation timing in great apes, and provide a new age prediction technique based on wild specimens. However, mountain gorillas do not appear accelerated in radiographic assessment of molar formation compared to chimpanzees, as they are for other life history traits. Future studies should aim to resolve the influence of species differences, wild versus captive environments, and/or sampling phenomena on patterns observed here, and more generally, how they relate to variation in tooth size, eruption timing, and developmental life history. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Resource limitation and responses to rivals in males of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Mason, J S; Rostant, W G; Chapman, T

2016-10-01

Diet has a profound direct and indirect effect on reproductive success in both sexes. Variation in diet quality and quantity can significantly alter the capacity of females to lay eggs and of males to deliver courtship. Here, we tested the effect of dietary resource limitation on the ability of male Drosophila melanogaster to respond adaptively to rivals by extending their mating duration. Previous work carried out under ad libitum diet conditions showed that males exposed to rivals prior to mating significantly extend mating duration, transfer more ejaculate proteins and achieve higher reproductive success. Such adaptive responses are predicted to occur because male ejaculate production may be limited. Hence, ejaculate resources require allocation across different reproductive bouts, to balance current vs. future reproductive success. However, when males suffer dietary limitation, and potentially have fewer reproductive resources to apportion, we expect adaptive allocation of responses to rivals to be minimized. We tested this prediction and found that males held on agar-only diets for 5-7 days lost the ability to extend mating following exposure to rivals. Interestingly, extended mating was retained in males held on low yeast/sugar: no sugar/yeast diet treatments, but was mostly lost when males were maintained on 'imbalanced' diets in which there was high yeast: no sugar and vice versa. Overall, the results show that males exhibit adaptive responses to rivals according to the degree of dietary resource limitation and to the ratio of individual diet components. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

Factors associated with reduced radiation exposure, cost, and technical difficulty of inferior vena cava filter placement and retrieval.

PubMed

Neill, Matthew; Charles, Hearns W; Pflager, Daniel; Deipolyi, Amy R

2017-01-01

We sought to delineate factors of inferior vena cava filter placement associated with increased radiation and cost and difficult subsequent retrieval. In total, 299 procedures from August 2013 to December 2014, 252 in a fluoroscopy suite (FS) and 47 in the operating room (OR), were reviewed for radiation exposure, fluoroscopy time, filter type, and angulation. The number of retrieval devices and fluoroscopy time needed for retrieval were assessed. Multiple linear regression assessed the impact of filter type, procedure location, and patient and procedural variables on radiation dose, fluoroscopy time, and filter angulation. Logistic regression assessed the impact of filter angulation, type, and filtration duration on retrieval difficulty. Access site and filter type had no impact on radiation exposure. However, placement in the OR, compared to the FS, entailed more radiation (156.3 vs 71.4 mGy; P = 0.001), fluoroscopy time (6.1 vs 2.8 min; P < 0.001), and filter angulation (4.8° vs 2.6°; P < 0.001). Angulation was primarily dependent on filter type ( P = 0.02), with VenaTech and Denali filters associated with decreased angulation (2.2°, 2.4°) and Option filters associated with greater angulation (4.2°). Filter angulation, but not filter type or filtration duration, predicted cases requiring >1 retrieval device ( P < 0.001) and >30 min fluoroscopy time ( P = 0.02). Cost savings for placement in the FS vs OR were estimated at $444.50 per case. In conclusion, increased radiation and cost were associated with placement in the OR. Filter angulation independently predicted difficult filter retrieval; angulation was determined by filter type. Performing filter placement in the FS using specific filters may reduce radiation and cost while enabling future retrieval.

Insanity acquittee outcomes in New Zealand.

PubMed

Skipworth, Jeremy; Brinded, Phil; Chaplow, David; Frampton, Chris

2006-01-01

This paper examines clinical and forensic outcomes for defendants found not guilty by reason of insanity in New Zealand, and explores the implications for policy development and clinical rehabilitation in this population. All insanity acquittees disposed of by the courts as special patients after 1976 and released before 2004 are described. Their duration of inpatient care, rates of reconviction and rehospitalization following release are examined. The high resolution rate for violent crime reported to police suggests that reconviction rates are a reasonable proxy for violent reoffending. Factors predicting duration of inpatient care and reoffending are analysed. Severity of Index Offence was the only variable predicting duration of inpatient care of the 135 special patients. Offenders of more serious offences were securely detained for longer periods--averaging 6 years in the case of those charged with murder. Most patients were readmitted over the decade following discharge. Only 6% had violently reoffended 2 years after release into the community. Prior offending, age at release, ethnicity and gender predicted reoffending, but not diagnosis or duration of inpatient admission. Following discharge into the community, insanity acquittees are reconvicted of violent crimes at a very low rate, although readmission to hospital is common. It may be that insanity acquittees are initially detained in hospital longer than is clinically indicated, and that safe forensic community treatment can occur at an earlier stage of recovery without compromising public safety.

Induced Contamination Predictions for JAXA's MPAC&SEED Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steagall, Courtney; Smith, Kendall; Huang, Alvin; Soares, Carlos; Mikatarian, Ron

2008-01-01

Externally mounted ISS payloads are exposed to the induced ISS environment, including material outgassing and thruster plume contamination. The Boeing Space Environments Team developed analytical and semiempirical models to predict material outgassing and thruster plume induced contamination. JAXA s SM/MPAC&SEED experiment provides an unique opportunity to compare induced contamination predications with measurements. Analysis results are qualitatively consistent with XPS measurements. Calculated depth of contamination within a factor of 2-3 of measured contamination. Represents extremely good agreement, especially considering long duration of experiment and number of outgassing sources. Despite XPS limitations in quantifying plume contamination, the measured and predicted results are of similar scale for the wake-facing surfaces. JAXA s JEM/MPAC&SEED experiment will also be exposed to induced contamination due to JEM and ISS hardware. Predicted material outgassing induced contamination to JEM/MPAC&SEED ranges from 44 to 262 (depending on surface temperature) for a 3 year exposure duration.

The Impact of Back-Sputtered Carbon on the Accelerator Grid Wear Rates of the NEXT and NSTAR Ion Thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soulas, George C.

2013-01-01

A study was conducted to quantify the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the downstream accelerator grid erosion rates of the NEXT (NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster) Long Duration Test (LDT1). A similar analysis that was conducted for the NSTAR (NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness Program) Life Demonstration Test (LDT2) was used as a foundation for the analysis developed herein. A new carbon surface coverage model was developed that accounted for multiple carbon adlayers before complete surface coverage is achieved. The resulting model requires knowledge of more model inputs, so they were conservatively estimated using the results of past thin film sputtering studies and particle reflection predictions. In addition, accelerator current densities across the grid were rigorously determined using an ion optics code to determine accelerator current distributions and an algorithm to determine beam current densities along a grid using downstream measurements. The improved analysis was applied to the NSTAR test results for evaluation. The improved analysis demonstrated that the impact of back-sputtered carbon on pit and groove wear rate for the NSTAR LDT2 was negligible throughout most of eroded grid radius. The improved analysis also predicted the accelerator current density for transition from net erosion to net deposition considerably more accurately than the original analysis. The improved analysis was used to estimate the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the accelerator grid pit and groove wear rate of the NEXT Long Duration Test (LDT1). Unlike the NSTAR analysis, the NEXT analysis was more challenging because the thruster was operated for extended durations at various operating conditions and was unavailable for measurements because the test is ongoing. As a result, the NEXT LDT1 estimates presented herein are considered preliminary until the results of future posttest analyses are incorporated. The worst-case impact of carbon back-sputtering was determined to be the full power operating condition, but the maximum impact of back-sputtered carbon was only a four percent reduction in wear rate. As a result, back-sputtered carbon is estimated to have an insignificant impact on the first failure mode of the NEXT LDT at all operating conditions.

17 CFR 3.2 - Registration processing by the National Futures Association; notification and duration of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... any registration form, any schedule or supplement thereto, any fingerprint card or other document... complete photocopy of that form, schedule, supplement, fingerprint card, or other document is filed... original form, schedule, supplement, fingerprint card, or other document. (c) The National Futures...

Pre-attentive sensitivity to vowel duration reveals native phonology and predicts learning of second-language sounds.

PubMed

Chládková, Kateřina; Escudero, Paola; Lipski, Silvia C

2013-09-01

In some languages (e.g. Czech), changes in vowel duration affect word meaning, while in others (e.g. Spanish) they do not. Yet for other languages (e.g. Dutch), the linguistic role of vowel duration remains unclear. To reveal whether Dutch represents vowel length in its phonology, we compared auditory pre-attentive duration processing in native and non-native vowels across Dutch, Czech, and Spanish. Dutch duration sensitivity patterned with Czech but was larger than Spanish in the native vowel, while it was smaller than Czech and Spanish in the non-native vowel. An interpretation of these findings suggests that in Dutch, duration is used phonemically but it might be relevant for the identity of certain native vowels only. Furthermore, the finding that Spanish listeners are more sensitive to duration in non-native than in native vowels indicates that a lack of duration differences in one's native language could be beneficial for second-language learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plantar pressures are higher in cases with diabetic foot ulcers compared to controls despite a longer stance phase duration.

PubMed

Fernando, Malindu E; Crowther, Robert G; Lazzarini, Peter A; Sangla, Kunwarjit S; Wearing, Scott; Buttner, Petra; Golledge, Jonathan

2016-09-15

Current international guidelines advocate achieving at least a 30 % reduction in maximum plantar pressure to reduce the risk of foot ulcers in people with diabetes. However, whether plantar pressures differ in cases with foot ulcers to controls without ulcers is not clear. The aim of this study was to assess if plantar pressures were higher in patients with active plantar diabetic foot ulcers (cases) compared to patients with diabetes without a foot ulcer history (diabetes controls) and people without diabetes or a foot ulcer history (healthy controls). Twenty-one cases with diabetic foot ulcers, 69 diabetes controls and 56 healthy controls were recruited for this case-control study. Plantar pressures at ten sites on both feet and stance phase duration were measured using a pre-established protocol. Primary outcomes were mean peak plantar pressure, pressure-time integral and stance phase duration. Non-parametric analyses were used with Holm's correction to correct for multiple testing. Binary logistic regression models were used to adjust outcomes for age, sex and body mass index. Median differences with 95 % confidence intervals and Cohen's d values (standardised mean difference) were reported for all significant outcomes. The majority of ulcers were located on the plantar surface of the hallux and toes. When adjusted for age, sex and body mass index, the mean peak plantar pressure and pressure-time integral of toes and the mid-foot were significantly higher in cases compared to diabetes and healthy controls (p < 0.05). The stance phase duration was also significantly higher in cases compared to both control groups (p < 0.05). The main limitations of the study were the small number of cases studied and the inability to adjust analyses for multiple factors. This study shows that plantar pressures are higher in cases with active diabetic foot ulcers despite having a longer stance phase duration which would be expected to lower plantar pressure. Whether plantar pressure changes can predict ulcer healing should be the focus of future research. These results highlight the importance of offloading feet during active ulceration in addition to before ulceration.

The Effect of Interruption Duration and Demand on Resuming Suspended Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monk, Christopher A.; Trafton, J. Gregory; Boehm-Davis, Deborah A.

2008-01-01

The time to resume task goals after an interruption varied depending on the duration and cognitive demand of interruptions, as predicted by the memory for goals model (Altmann & Trafton, 2002). Three experiments using an interleaved tasks interruption paradigm showed that longer and more demanding interruptions led to longer resumption times in a…

Factors influencing the duration of work-related disability: a population-based study of Washington State workers' compensation.

PubMed

Cheadle, A; Franklin, G; Wolfhagen, C; Savarino, J; Liu, P Y; Salley, C; Weaver, M

1994-02-01

The purpose of this study was to examine factors predictive of duration of work-related disability. Multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to conduct a population-based, retrospective cohort study on a random sample of 28,473 workers' compensation claims from Washington State filed for injuries occurring in 1987 to 1989. The principal outcome measure was length of time for which compensation for lost wages was paid, used as a surrogate for duration of temporary total disability. The findings suggest that, even after adjusting for severity of injury, older age, female gender, and a diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome or back/neck sprain significantly predict longer duration of disability. Other predictors that were stable and significant, but involved lower magnitudes of effect included divorced marital status, firm size of fewer than 50 employees, higher country unemployment rates, and construction and agricultural work. Greater disability prevention efforts targeting these higher risk subgroups could have significant economic and public health effects. The greatest impact may be on claimants who remain disabled at 6 months after an injury that did not require hospitalization.

The Association Between Breastfeeding Exposure and Duration, Neuropsychological Deficits, and Psychopathic Personality Traits in Offspring: The Moderating Role of 5HTTLPR.

PubMed

Jackson, Dylan B; Beaver, Kevin M

2016-03-01

A wealth of research has revealed that a shorter duration of breastfeeding during infancy can increase the risk of various maladaptive traits, including neuropsychological deficits. Despite the number of studies that have been conducted on the topic, few studies have explored whether the effects of breastfeeding on neuropsychological functioning and personality features persist into adulthood. Furthermore, very little research to date has examined whether this relationship is moderated by specific indicators of genetic risk. The current study examines the direct and interactive effects of breastfeeding experiences and the serotonin transporter polymorphism (5HTTLPR) on neuropsychological deficits and psychopathic personality traits. Using data from the National Longitudinal study of Adolescent Health, we find that no exposure to breastfeeding and a shorter duration of breastfeeding significantly increase the risk of exhibiting neuropsychological deficits during adolescence and early adulthood as well as psychopathic personality traits during adulthood. The results also reveal a number of gene × environment interactions between 5HTTLPR, breastfeeding exposure and breastfeeding duration in the prediction of neuropsychological deficits, but not in the prediction of psychopathic personality traits.

Longitudinal associations between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Magee, Lorrie

2011-01-01

Objective To systematically examine the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain in observational longitudinal human studies Methods Systematic review of twenty longitudinal studies published from 2004-October 31, 2010 Results While adult studies (n=13) reported inconsistent results on the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent weight gain, studies with children (n=7) more consistently reported a positive relationship between short sleep duration and weight gain. Conclusion While shorter sleep duration consistently predicts subsequent weight gain in children, the relationship is not clear in adults. We discuss possible limitations of the current studies: 1.) the diminishing association between short sleep duration on weight gain over time after transition to short sleep, 2.) lack of inclusion of appropriate confounding, mediating, and moderating variables (i.e. sleep complaints and sedentary behavior), and 3.) measurement issues. PMID:21784678

Can We Predict Foraging Success in a Marine Predator from Dive Patterns Only? Validation with Prey Capture Attempt Data

PubMed Central

Viviant, Morgane; Monestiez, Pascal; Guinet, Christophe

2014-01-01

Predicting how climatic variations will affect marine predator populations relies on our ability to assess foraging success, but evaluating foraging success in a marine predator at sea is particularly difficult. Dive metrics are commonly available for marine mammals, diving birds and some species of fish. Bottom duration or dive duration are usually used as proxies for foraging success. However, few studies have tried to validate these assumptions and identify the set of behavioral variables that best predict foraging success at a given time scale. The objective of this study was to assess if foraging success in Antarctic fur seals could be accurately predicted from dive parameters only, at different temporal scales. For this study, 11 individuals were equipped with either Hall sensors or accelerometers to record dive profiles and detect mouth-opening events, which were considered prey capture attempts. The number of prey capture attempts was best predicted by descent and ascent rates at the dive scale; bottom duration and descent rates at 30-min, 1-h, and 2-h scales; and ascent rates and maximum dive depths at the all-night scale. Model performances increased with temporal scales, but rank and sign of the factors varied according to the time scale considered, suggesting that behavioral adjustment in response to prey distribution could occur at certain scales only. The models predicted the foraging intensity of new individuals with good accuracy despite high inter-individual differences. Dive metrics that predict foraging success depend on the species and the scale considered, as verified by the literature and this study. The methodology used in our study is easy to implement, enables an assessment of model performance, and could be applied to any other marine predator. PMID:24603534

Work-Family Conflict and Employee Sleep: Evidence from IT Workers in the Work, Family and Health Study

PubMed Central

Buxton, Orfeu M.; Lee, Soomi; Beverly, Chloe; Berkman, Lisa F.; Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin L.; Hammer, Leslie B.; Almeida, David M.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Work-family conflict is a threat to healthy sleep behaviors among employees. This study aimed to examine how Work-to-Family Conflict (demands from work that interfere with one's family/personal life; WTFC) and Family-to-Work Conflict (demands from family/personal life that interfere with work; FTWC) are associated with several dimensions of sleep among information technology workers. Methods: Employees at a U.S. IT firm (n = 799) provided self-reports of sleep sufficiency (feeling rested upon waking), sleep quality, and sleep maintenance insomnia symptoms (waking up in the middle of the night or early morning) in the last month. They also provided a week of actigraphy for nighttime sleep duration, napping, sleep timing, and a novel sleep inconsistency measure. Analyses adjusted for work conditions (job demands, decision authority, schedule control, and family-supportive supervisor behavior), and household and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: Employees who experienced higher WTFC reported less sleep sufficiency, poorer sleep quality, and more insomnia symptoms. Higher WTFC also predicted shorter nighttime sleep duration, greater likelihood of napping, and longer nap duration. Furthermore, higher WTFC was linked to greater inconsistency of nighttime sleep duration and sleep clock times, whereas higher FTWC was associated with more rigidity of sleep timing mostly driven by wake time. Conclusions: Results highlight the unique associations of WTFC/FTWC with employee sleep independent of other work conditions and household and sociodemographic characteristics. Our novel methodological approach demonstrates differential associations of WTFC and FTWC with inconsistency of sleep timing. Given the strong associations between WTFC and poor sleep, future research should focus on reducing WTFC. Citation: Buxton OM, Lee S, Beverly C, Berkman LF, Moen P, Kelly EL, Hammer LB, Almeida DM. Work-family conflict and employee sleep: evidence from IT workers in the Work, Family and Health Study. SLEEP 2016;39(10):1871–1882. PMID:27568810

The impact of sleep on female sexual response and behavior: a pilot study.

PubMed

Kalmbach, David A; Arnedt, J Todd; Pillai, Vivek; Ciesla, Jeffrey A

2015-05-01

The etiological role of sleep disturbance in sexual difficulties has been largely overlooked. Research suggests that short sleep duration and poor sleep quality lead to poor female sexual response. However, prior research consists of cross-sectional studies, and the influence of sleep on sexual functioning and behavior has not been prospectively examined. We sought to examine the influence of nightly sleep duration, sleep quality, and sleep onset latency on daily female sexual response and activity. This study used a longitudinal design to study 171 women free of antidepressants and with reliable Internet access who were recruited from a university setting in the United States. Participants first completed baseline measures in a laboratory, and then completed web-delivered surveys at their habitual wake time for 14 consecutive days. All outcome measures were modified for daily recall. Participants completed the Profile of Female Sexual Function's desire, subjective arousal, and orgasmic functioning scales and the Female Sexual Function Index's genital arousal scale, and indicated whether they engaged in partnered sexual activity or self-stimulation in response to dichotomous items. Analyses revealed that longer sleep duration was related to greater next-day sexual desire (b = 0.32, P = 0.02), and that a 1-hour increase in sleep length corresponded to a 14% increase in odds of engaging in partnered sexual activity (odds ratio = 1.14, P < 0.05). In contrast, sleeping longer predicted poorer next-day genital arousal (b = -0.19, P < 0.01). However, results showed that women with longer average sleep duration reported better genital arousal than women with shorter average sleep length (b = 0.54, P = 0.03). Obtaining sufficient sleep is important to the promotion of healthy sexual desire and genital response, as well as the likelihood of engaging in partnered sexual activity. These relationships were independent of daytime affect and fatigue. Future directions may investigate sleep disorders as risk factors for sexual dysfunction. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Impacts of leaf age and heat stress duration on photosynthetic gas exchange and foliar nonstructural carbohydrates in Coffea arabica.

PubMed

Marias, Danielle E; Meinzer, Frederick C; Still, Christopher

2017-02-01

Given future climate predictions of increased temperature, and frequency and intensity of heat waves in the tropics, suitable habitat to grow ecologically, economically, and socially valuable Coffea arabica is severely threatened. We investigated how leaf age and heat stress duration impact recovery from heat stress in C. arabica . Treated plants were heated in a growth chamber at 49°C for 45 or 90 min. Physiological recovery was monitored in situ using gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence (the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence, F V / F M ), and leaf nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) on mature and expanding leaves before and 2, 15, 25, and 50 days after treatment. Regardless of leaf age, the 90-min treatment resulted in greater F V / F M reduction 2 days after treatment and slower recovery than the 45-min treatment. In both treatments, photosynthesis of expanding leaves recovered more slowly than in mature leaves. Stomatal conductance ( g s ) decreased in expanding leaves but did not change in mature leaves. These responses led to reduced intrinsic water-use efficiency with increasing heat stress duration in both age classes. Based on a leaf energy balance model, aftereffects of heat stress would be exacerbated by increases in leaf temperature at low g s under full sunlight where C. arabica is often grown, but also under partial sunlight. Starch and total NSC content of the 45-min group significantly decreased 2 days after treatment and then accumulated 15 and 25 days after treatment coinciding with recovery of photosynthesis and F V / F M . In contrast, sucrose of the 90-min group accumulated at day 2 suggesting that phloem transport was inhibited. Both treatment group responses contrasted with control plant total NSC and starch, which declined with time associated with subsequent flower and fruit production. No treated plants produced flowers or fruits, suggesting that short duration heat stress can lead to crop failure.

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Flocks, James; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Long, Joseph W.; Guy, Kristy K.; Thompson, David M.; Cormier, Jamie M.; Smith, Christopher G.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2014-01-01

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Flocks, James; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Long, Joseph W.; Guy, Kristy; Thompson, David M.; Cormier, Jamie M.; Smith, Christopher G.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2014-02-01

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Temporal Sensitivity Measured Shortly After Cochlear Implantation Predicts 6-Month Speech Recognition Outcome.

PubMed

Erb, Julia; Ludwig, Alexandra Annemarie; Kunke, Dunja; Fuchs, Michael; Obleser, Jonas

2018-04-24

Psychoacoustic tests assessed shortly after cochlear implantation are useful predictors of the rehabilitative speech outcome. While largely independent, both spectral and temporal resolution tests are important to provide an accurate prediction of speech recognition. However, rapid tests of temporal sensitivity are currently lacking. Here, we propose a simple amplitude modulation rate discrimination (AMRD) paradigm that is validated by predicting future speech recognition in adult cochlear implant (CI) patients. In 34 newly implanted patients, we used an adaptive AMRD paradigm, where broadband noise was modulated at the speech-relevant rate of ~4 Hz. In a longitudinal study, speech recognition in quiet was assessed using the closed-set Freiburger number test shortly after cochlear implantation (t0) as well as the open-set Freiburger monosyllabic word test 6 months later (t6). Both AMRD thresholds at t0 (r = -0.51) and speech recognition scores at t0 (r = 0.56) predicted speech recognition scores at t6. However, AMRD and speech recognition at t0 were uncorrelated, suggesting that those measures capture partially distinct perceptual abilities. A multiple regression model predicting 6-month speech recognition outcome with deafness duration and speech recognition at t0 improved from adjusted R = 0.30 to adjusted R = 0.44 when AMRD threshold was added as a predictor. These findings identify AMRD thresholds as a reliable, nonredundant predictor above and beyond established speech tests for CI outcome. This AMRD test could potentially be developed into a rapid clinical temporal-resolution test to be integrated into the postoperative test battery to improve the reliability of speech outcome prognosis.

We Have the Spaceship; But Where's the Start Button: Human Engineering Issues in the Age of Long Duration Space Exploration - Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, George; Adams, Chris

2005-01-01

This viewgraph presentation addresses the following considerations for human factors engineering during long duration human space flight: gravitational adaptation, 2-D to 3-D adaptation, handles, exercise posture, and space ergonomics. The presentation argues that there is an urgent need to advance research is these areas in preparation for future manned missions.

Factors affecting first return to work following a compensable occupational back injury.

PubMed

Oleinick, A; Gluck, J V; Guire, K

1996-11-01

Occupational back injuries produced $27 billion in direct and indirect costs in 1988. Predictors of prolonged disability have generally been identified in selected clinical populations, but there have been few population-based studies using statewide registries from workers' compensation systems. This study uses a 1986 cohort of 8,628 Michigan workers with compensable back injuries followed to March 1, 1990. Cox proportional hazards analyses with nine categorical covariates identified factors predicting missed worktime for the first disability episode following the injury. The model distinguished factors affecting the acute (< or = 8 weeks) and chronic disability periods (> 8 weeks). The first disability episode following injury contains 69.6% of the missed worktime observed through follow-up. In the acute phase, which contributes 15.2% of first episode missed worktime, gender, age, number of dependents, industry (construction), occupation, and type of accident predict continued work disability. Marital status, weekly wage compensation rate, and establishment size do not. Beyond 8 weeks, age, establishment size and, to a lesser degree, wage compensation rate predict duration of work disability. Graphs show the predicted disability course for injured workers with specific covariate patterns. Future efforts to reduce missed worktime may require modifications in current clinical practice by patient age group and the development of new strategies to encourage small and medium-size employers to find ways to return their injured employees to work sooner. Recent federal statutes covering disabled workers will only partially correct the strong effect of employer establishment size.

Improved Dynamic Modeling of the Cascade Distillation Subsystem and Integration with Models of Other Water Recovery Subsystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Bruce; Anderson, Molly

2015-01-01

The Cascade Distillation Subsystem (CDS) is a rotary multistage distiller being developed to serve as the primary processor for wastewater recovery during long-duration space missions. The CDS could be integrated with a system similar to the International Space Station (ISS) Water Processor Assembly (WPA) to form a complete Water Recovery System (WRS) for future missions. Independent chemical process simulations with varying levels of detail have previously been developed using Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) to aid in the analysis of the CDS and several WPA components. The existing CDS simulation could not model behavior during thermal startup and lacked detailed analysis of several key internal processes, including heat transfer between stages. The first part of this paper describes modifications to the ACM model of the CDS that improve its capabilities and the accuracy of its predictions. Notably, the modified version of the model can accurately predict behavior during thermal startup for both NaCl solution and pretreated urine feeds. The model is used to predict how changing operating parameters and design features of the CDS affects its performance, and conclusions from these predictions are discussed. The second part of this paper describes the integration of the modified CDS model and the existing WPA component models into a single WRS model. The integrated model is used to demonstrate the effects that changes to one component can have on the dynamic behavior of the system as a whole.

Measuring anxious responses to predictable and unpredictable threat in children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Schmitz, Anja; Merikangas, Kathleen; Swendsen, Haruka; Cui, Lihong; Heaton, Leanne; Grillon, Christian

2011-01-01

Research has highlighted the need for new methods to assess emotions in children on multiple levels in order to gain better insight into the complex processes of emotional development. The startle reflex is a unique translational tool that has been utilized to study physiological processes during fear and anxiety in rodents and in human subjects. However, it has been challenging to implement developmentally-appropriate startle experiments in children. This paper describes a procedure that uses predictable and unpredictable aversive events to distinguish between phasic fear and sustained anxiety in children and adolescents. We investigated anxious responses, as measured with the startle reflex, in youth (N = 36, mean age[range] = 12.63 [7–17]) across three conditions: no aversive events (N), predictable aversive events (P), and unpredictable aversive events (U). Short-duration cues were presented several times in each condition. Aversive events were signaled by the cues in P, but were presented randomly in U. Participants showed fear-potentiated startle to the threat cue in P. Startle responses were also elevated between cues in U compared to N, suggesting that unpredictable aversive events can evoke a sustained state of anxiety in youth. This latter effect was influenced by sex, being greater in girls compared to boys. These findings indicate the feasibility of this experimental induction of the startle reflex in response to predictable and unpredictable events in children and adolescents, enabling future research on inter-individual differences in fear and anxiety and their development in youth. PMID:21440905

Progress update of NASA's free-piston Stirling space power converter technology project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudenhoefer, James E.; Winter, Jerry M.; Alger, Donald

1992-01-01

A progress update is presented of the NASA LeRC Free-Piston Stirling Space Power Converter Technology Project. This work is being conducted under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI). The goal of the CSTI High Capacity Power Element is to develop the technology base needed to meet the long duration, high capacity power requirements for future NASA space initiatives. Efforts are focused upon increasing system power output and system thermal and electric energy conversion efficiency at least five fold over current SP-100 technology, and on achieving systems that are compatible with space nuclear reactors. This paper will discuss progress toward 1050 K Stirling Space Power Converters. Fabrication is nearly completed for the 1050 K Component Test Power Converter (CTPC); results of motoring tests of the cold end (525 K), are presented. The success of these and future designs is dependent upon supporting research and technology efforts including heat pipes, bearings, superalloy joining technologies, high efficiency alternators, life and reliability testing, and predictive methodologies. This paper will compare progress in significant areas of component development from the start of the program with the Space Power Development Engine (SPDE) to the present work on CTPC.

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.

Can the Risks of Cerebrospinal Fluid Leak After Vestibular Schwannoma Surgery Be Predicted?

PubMed

Russel, Adrien; Hoffmann, Charles P; Nguyen, Duc T; Beurton, Renaud; Parietti-Winkler, Cécile

2017-02-01

Identifying predictive factors of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leak after translabyrinthine approach (TLA) for vestibular schwannoma. Retrospective study. Tertiary care center. All patients (n = 275) operated for a vestibular schwannoma by TLA between 2004 and 2013 were included. Vestibular schwannoma surgery by TLA. The rate of postoperative CSF leak considering the age, sex, body mass index (BMI), tumor staging, and duration of surgical procedure. A logistic regression model was used to identify the predictors and compute a biometric predictive model of CSF leak. Thirty-three patients (12.0%) developed a CSF leak after surgery. In a multivariable model, an increased risk of CSF leak was found for younger patients (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98), longer duration of surgery (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.12-3.05), and the male sex (0 = male; 1 = female; OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.09-0.54), while also adjusting for BMI. The probability of developing a CSF leak after vestibular schwannoma surgery was calculated using a statistical prediction model, with a percentage of false negative of 7.0% and an overall correct prediction of 88.4%. The predictors of CSF leak after TLA for vestibular schwannoma are young age, male sex, longer duration of surgery, which adjusting for BMI. In this regard, the surgical team should adapt its management during pre- and postoperative period to decrease the likelihood of a leak.

The risk of coronary heart disease of seafarers on vessels sailing under a German flag.

PubMed

Oldenburg, Marcus; Jensen, Hans-Joachim; Latza, Ute; Baur, Xaver

2010-01-01

This study aimed to predict the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) among seafarers on German-flagged vessels and to assess the association of shipboard job duration at sea with the risk of CHD. During the legally required medical fitness test for nautical service, 161 seafarers in Hamburg participated in a cross-sectional study which included an interview, blood sampling, and blood pressure measurements (response 84.9%). The predicted 10-year risk of an acute coronary event of the examined German seafarers aged 35 to 64 years (n = 46) was assessed in comparison with a sample of male German employees of the same age working ashore (PROCAM study). The number of independent CHD risk factors (according to the PROCAM study) was compared in the groups with 'shorter' and 'longer' median shipboard job duration at sea (15.0 years). The examined German seafarers had a similar age-standardized predicted 10-year CHD risk as the German reference population. Nearly all independent CHD risk factors were significantly more frequent in seamen with job duration at sea of ≥ 15 years than in those with 〈 15 years. After adjusting for age, the number of CHD risk factors was associated with job duration (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.14] per year). Seafarers on German-flagged ships have to attend a medical fitness test for nautical service every 2 years. Thus, it can be assumed that seafarers present a healthier population than employees ashore. In this study, however, CHD risk of seafarers was similar to that of the reference population. This may indicate that working onboard implies a high coronary risk. Furthermore, the study results suggest a tendency of increased risk of CHD among seafarers with longer job duration at sea.

The interplay between sleep and mood in predicting academic functioning, physical health and psychological health: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Wong, Mark Lawrence; Lau, Esther Yuet Ying; Wan, Jacky Ho Yin; Cheung, Shu Fai; Hui, C Harry; Mok, Doris Shui Ying

2013-04-01

Existing studies on sleep and behavioral outcomes are mostly correlational. Longitudinal data is limited. The current longitudinal study assessed how sleep duration and sleep quality may be causally linked to daytime functions, including physical health (physical well-being and daytime sleepiness), psychological health (mood and self-esteem) and academic functioning (school grades and study effort). The mediation role of mood in the relationship between sleep quality, sleep duration and these daytime functions is also assessed. A sample of 930 Chinese students (aged 18-25) from Hong Kong/Macau completed self-reported questionnaires online across three academic semesters. Sleep behaviors are assessed by the sleep timing questionnaire (for sleep duration and weekday/weekend sleep discrepancy) and the Pittsburgh sleep quality index (sleep quality); physical health by the World Health Organization quality of life scale-brief version (physical well-being) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (daytime sleepiness); psychological health by the depression anxiety stress scale (mood) and Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (self-esteem) and academic functioning by grade-point-average and the college student expectation questionnaire (study effort). Structural equation modeling with a bootstrap resample of 5000 showed that after controlling for demographics and participants' daytime functions at baseline, academic functions, physical and psychological health were predicted by the duration and quality of sleep. While some sleep behaviors directly predicted daytime functions, others had an indirect effect on daytime functions through negative mood, such as anxiety. Sleep duration and quality have direct and indirect (via mood) effects on college students' academic function, physical and psychological health. Our findings underscore the importance of healthy sleep patterns for better adjustment in college years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teamwork Training Needs Analysis for Long-Duration Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith-Jentsch, Kimberly A.; Sierra, Mary Jane

2016-01-01

The success of future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will be determined largely by the extent to which mission-critical personnel possess and effectively exercise essential teamwork competencies throughout the entire mission lifecycle (e.g., Galarza & Holland, 1999; Hysong, Galarza, & Holland, 2007; Noe, Dachner, Saxton, & Keeton, 2011). To ensure that such personnel develop and exercise these necessary teamwork competencies prior to and over the full course of future LDEMs, it is essential that a teamwork training curriculum be developed and put into place at NASA that is both 1) comprehensive, in that it targets all teamwork competencies critical for mission success and 2) structured around empirically-based best practices for enhancing teamwork training effectiveness. In response to this demand, the current teamwork-oriented training needs analysis (TNA) was initiated to 1) identify the teamwork training needs (i.e., essential teamwork-related competencies) of future LDEM crews, 2) identify critical gaps within NASA’s current and future teamwork training curriculum (i.e., gaps in the competencies targeted and in the training practices utilized) that threaten to impact the success of future LDEMs, and to 3) identify a broad set of practical nonprescriptive recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of NASA’s teamwork training curriculum in order to increase the probability of future LDEM success.

Cognitive predictors of skilled performance with an advanced upper limb multifunction prosthesis: a preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Hancock, Laura; Correia, Stephen; Ahern, David; Barredo, Jennifer; Resnik, Linda

2017-07-01

Purpose The objectives were to 1) identify major cognitive domains involved in learning to use the DEKA Arm; 2) specify cognitive domain-specific skills associated with basic versus advanced users; and 3) examine whether baseline memory and executive function predicted learning. Method Sample included 35 persons with upper limb amputation. Subjects were administered a brief neuropsychological test battery prior to start of DEKA Arm training, as well as physical performance measures at the onset of, and following training. Multiple regression models controlling for age and including neuropsychological tests were developed to predict physical performance scores. Prosthetic performance scores were divided into quartiles and independent samples t-tests compared neuropsychological test scores of advanced scorers and basic scorers. Baseline neuropsychological test scores were used to predict change in scores on physical performance measures across time. Results Cognitive domains of attention and processing speed were statistically significantly related to proficiency of DEKA Arm use and predicted level of proficiency. Conclusions Results support use of neuropsychological tests to predict learning and use of a multifunctional prosthesis. Assessment of cognitive status at the outset of training may help set expectations for the duration and outcomes of treatment. Implications for Rehabilitation Cognitive domains of attention and processing speed were significantly related to level of proficiencyof an advanced multifunctional prosthesis (the DEKA Arm) after training. Results provide initial support for the use of neuropsychological tests to predict advanced learningand use of a multifunctional prosthesis in upper-limb amputees. Results suggest that assessment of patients' cognitive status at the outset of upper limb prosthetictraining may, in the future, help patients, their families and therapists set expectations for theduration and intensity of training and may help set reasonable proficiency goals.

Patients' Future Expectations for Diabetes and Hypertension Treatments: "Through the Diet… I Think This is Going to Go Away."

PubMed

Fairchild, Paige C; Nathan, Aviva G; Quinn, Michael; Huang, Elbert S; Laiteerapong, Neda

2017-01-01

Diabetes and hypertension are chronic conditions for which over 90 % of patients require medication regimens that must be intensified over time. However, delays in intensification are common, and may be partially due to unrealistic patient expectations. To explore whether patient expectations regarding their diabetes and hypertension are congruent with the natural history of these conditions. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews. Sixty adults from an urban academic primary care clinic taking oral medications for both diabetes (duration <10 years) and hypertension (any duration) MAIN MEASURES: (1) Expectations for their a) current diabetes and hypertension medications, b) need for additional medications, c) likelihood of cure (not requiring medications); (2) preferences for receiving information on expected duration of treatments KEY RESULTS: The average patient age was 60 years, and 65 % were women. Nearly half (48 %) of participants expected to discontinue current diabetes medications in 6 years or less, whereas only one-fifth (22 %) expected to take medications for life. For blood pressure medications, one-third (37 %) expected to stop medicines in 6 years or less, and one-third expected to take medicines for life. The vast majority did not expect that they would need additional medications in the future (oral diabetes medications: 85 %; insulin: 87 %; hypertension medications: 93 %). A majority expected that their diabetes (65 %) and hypertension (58 %) would be cured. Most participants believed that intensifying lifestyle changes would allow them to discontinue medications, avoid additional medications, or cure their diabetes and hypertension. Nearly all participants (97 %) wanted to hear information on the expected duration of their diabetes and hypertension treatments from their healthcare provider. Providers should educate patients on the natural history of diabetes and hypertension in order to manage patient expectations for current and future medications. Future research should assess whether education can increase the adoption of and adherence to medications, without diminishing enthusiasm for lifestyle changes.

Electrocardiographic parameters predict super-response in cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Cvijić, Marta; Žižek, David; Antolič, Bor; Zupan, Igor

2015-01-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an established treatment for heart failure patients. However, determinants of response to CRT remain elusive. The aim of the study was to assess the value of ECG parameters to predict super-response in CRT patients. A 12-lead surface ECG was recorded at baseline and immediately after CRT-device implantation. Baseline ECG parameters (QRS duration, bundle branch morphology, axis, PR interval, QTc, intrinsicoid deflection) and post-implant paced QRS duration were analyzed; relative change in QRS duration was calculated. Decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume ≥30% after 12 months was classified as super-response. In group of 101 patients, 32 (31.7%) were super-responders. There were no significant differences in baseline ECG parameters between super-responders and other patients. Post-implant QRS duration was shorter in super-responders (148 ± 22 ms vs. 162 ± 28 ms; P=0.010). Only in super-responders was significant QRS reduction observed after implantation. Relative QRS shortening was higher in super-responders (12.1% (6.8 to 22.2) vs. 1.7% (-11.9 to 11.8); P=0.005). In a multivariable analysis post-implant QRS duration and relative QRS shortening remained independent predictor of super-response. Absolute post-implant QRS duration and relative QRS shortening are the only ECG parameters associated with super-response in CRT. Further prospective studies on larger population are warranted to determine our findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measures of functional limitation as predictors of disablement in athletes with acute ankle sprains.

PubMed

Wilson, R W; Gansneder, B M

2000-09-01

Prospective multivariate design. To determine the usefulness of activity scores, self-reported athletic ability, and selected measures of physical impairment as predictors of disability duration in athletes with ankle inversion sprains. Although several measures of physical impairment and functional limitation are used to assess the consequences of injury following ankle sprain, researchers have yet to establish which measures provide the most accurate predictions of disability duration. Physical impairment, activity limitation, and disability duration were measured in 21 athletes (13 men and 8 women; mean age = 20.3 +/- 1.7 years) with acute ankle sprains. Sagittal plane ankle range of motion and volumetric displacement were used as impairment indicators. Weight-bearing activity scores (task completion count) and self-reported athletic ability (visual analog scale) were used to represent functional limitation. Elapsed time from injury to return to full athletic participation was used as the criterion measure of disability duration. The impairment measures accounted for approximately one-third of the variance in disability duration (R2 = 0.342). Adding the activity limitation measures to the regression model improved predictions of disability duration (R2 = 0.670; stepwise R2 change = 0.328). The measures of activity limitation alone, however, accounted for approximately 67% (R2 = 0.665) of the total variance in the number of days lost due to injury. Measures of activity limitation were the strongest predictors of elapsed time from injury to return to full athletic participation.

Lifetime incidences of traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaoming; Barnett, Douglas; Fang, Xiaoyi; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhao, Guoxiang; Zhao, Junfeng; Hong, Yan; Zhang, Liying; Naar-King, Sylvie; Stanton, Bonita

2009-09-01

Cross-sectional data were gathered from 1,625 children (M age = 12.85, SD = 2.21) which included 755 AIDS orphans, 466 vulnerable children, and 404 comparison children. Participants completed self-report measures of exposure to traumatic events, and psychosocial adjustment including behavior problems, depression, self-esteem, and future orientation. AIDS orphans and vulnerable children reported experiencing a higher total occurrence, density, duration, initial impact and lasting impact of traumatic events compared to comparison children. Scores reflecting adjustment were lower among orphans and vulnerable children than among comparison children. Both orphan status and traumatic events contributed unique variance in the expected direction to the prediction of psychosocial adjustment. The data in the current study suggested that children affected by HIV/AIDS in China are exposed to more trauma and suffer more adjustment problems than children who do not experience HIV/AIDS in their families.

Human auditory event-related potentials predict duration judgments.

PubMed

Bendixen, Alexandra; Grimm, Sabine; Schröger, Erich

2005-08-05

Internal clock models postulate a pulse accumulation process underlying timing activities, with more accumulated pulses resulting in longer perceived durations. We investigated whether this accumulation is reflected in the amplitude of event-related brain potentials (ERPs) elicited by auditory stimuli with durations of 400-600 ms. In a duration discrimination paradigm, we found more negative amplitudes to physically identical stimuli when they were judged as longer than the memorized standard duration (500 ms) as compared to being classified as shorter. This sustained negativity was already developing during the first 100 ms after stimulus onset. It could not be explained as a bias to respond with a particular hand (lateralized readiness potential), but rather reflects a processing difference between the tones to be judged as shorter or longer. Our results are in line with models of time processing which assume that higher numbers of accumulated pulses of a temporal processor result in an increase in perceived duration.

Dissociating Word Frequency and Predictability Effects in Reading: Evidence from Coregistration of Eye Movements and EEG

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kretzschmar, Franziska; Schlesewsky, Matthias; Staub, Adrian

2015-01-01

Two very reliable influences on eye fixation durations in reading are word frequency, as measured by corpus counts, and word predictability, as measured by cloze norming. Several studies have reported strictly additive effects of these 2 variables. Predictability also reliably influences the amplitude of the N400 component in event-related…

Evaluation of balloon trajectory forecast routines for GAINS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collander, R.; Girz, C.

The Global Air-ocean IN-situ System (GAINS) is a global observing system designed to augment current environmental observing and monitoring networks. GAINS is a network of long-duration, stratospheric platforms that carry onboard sensors and hundreds of dropsondes to acquire meteorological, air chemistry, and climate data over oceans and in remote land regions of the globe. Although GAINS platforms will include balloons and Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA), the scope of this paper is limited to balloon-based platforms. A primary goal of GAINS balloon test flights is post-flight recovery of the balloon shell and payload, which requires information on the expected flight path and landing site prior to launch. Software has been developed for the prediction of the balloon trajectory and landing site, with separate versions written to generate predictions based upon rawinsonde data and model output. Balloon positions are calculated in 1-min increments based on wind data from the closest rawinsonde site or model grid point, given a known launch point, ascent and descent rate and flight duration. For short flights (< 6h), rawinsonde winds interpolated to 10-mb levels are used for trajectory calculations. Predictions for flight durations of 6 to 48h are based upon the initialization and 3 h forecast wind fields from NOAA's global aviation- (AVN) and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. Given a limited number of actual balloon launches, trajectories computed from a chronological series of hourly RUC initializations are used as the baseline for comparison purposes. These baseline trajectories are compared to trajectory predictions from the rawinsonde and model-based versions on a monthly and seasonal basis over a 1-year period (January 1 - December 31, 2001) for flight durations of 3h, 6h and 48h. Predicted trajectories diverge from the baseline path, with the divergence increasing with increasing time. We examine the zonal, meridional and net magnitudes of these deviations, and attempt to determine directional biases in the predictions. This paper gives an overview of the software, including methods employed, physical considerations and limitations, and discusses results of this evaluation.

Anxiety sensitivity and racial differences in sleep duration: Results from a national survey of adults with cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Alcántara, Carmela; Giorgio Cosenzo, Luciana Andrea; Fan, Weijia; Doyle, David Matthew; Shaffer, Jonathan A

2017-05-01

Although Blacks sleep between 37 and 75min less per night than non-Hispanic Whites, research into what drives racial differences in sleep duration is limited. We examined the association of anxiety sensitivity, a cognitive vulnerability, and race (Blacks vs. White) with short sleep duration (<7h of sleep/night), and whether anxiety sensitivity mediated race differences in sleep duration in a nationally representative sample of adults with cardiovascular disease. Overall, 1289 adults (115 Black, 1174 White) with a self-reported physician/health professional diagnosis of ≥1 myocardial infarction completed an online survey. Weighted multivariable logistic regressions and mediation analyses with bootstrapping and case resampling were conducted. Anxiety sensitivity and Black vs. White race were associated with 4%-84% increased odds, respectively, of short sleep duration. Anxiety sensitivity mediated Black-White differences in sleep duration. Each anxiety sensitivity subscale was also a significant mediator. Implications for future intervention science to address sleep disparities are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of red blood cell eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) levels in a randomised trial of EPA in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases.

PubMed

Watson, Henry; Cockbain, Andrew J; Spencer, Jade; Race, Amanda; Volpato, Milene; Loadman, Paul M; Toogood, Giles J; Hull, Mark A

2016-12-01

We investigated red blood cell (RBC) PUFA profiles, and the predictive value of RBC EPA content for tumour EPA exposure and clinical outcomes, in the EMT study, a randomised trial of EPA in patients awaiting colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastasis surgery (Cockbain et al., 2014) [8]. There was a significant increase in RBC EPA in the EPA group (n=43; median intervention 30 days; mean absolute 1.26[±0.14]% increase; P<0.001), but not in the placebo arm (n=45). EPA incorporation varied widely in EPA users and was not explained by treatment duration or compliance. There was little evidence of 'contamination' in the placebo group. The EPA level predicted tumour EPA content (r=0.36; P=0.03). Participants with post-treatment EPA≥1.22% (n=49) had improved OS compared with EPA <1.22% (n=29; HR 0.42[95%CI 0.16-0.95]). RBC EPA content should be evaluated as a biomarker of tumour exposure and clinical outcomes in future EPA trials in CRC patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An oracle: antituberculosis pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics, clinical correlation, and clinical trial simulations to predict the future.

PubMed

Pasipanodya, Jotam; Gumbo, Tawanda

2011-01-01

Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

The impact of menopausal symptoms on work ability.

PubMed

Geukes, Marije; van Aalst, Mariëlle P; Nauta, Mary C E; Oosterhof, Henk

2012-03-01

Menopause is an important life event that may have a negative influence on quality of life. Work ability, a concept widely used in occupational health, can predict both future impairment and duration of sickness absence. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of menopausal symptoms on work ability. This was a cross-sectional study that used a sample of healthy working Dutch women aged 44 to 60 years. Work ability was measured using the Work Ability Index, and menopausal symptoms were measured using the Greene Climacteric Scale. Stepwise multiple linear regression models were used to examine the relationship between menopausal symptoms and work ability. A total of 208 women were included in this study. There was a significant negative correlation between total Greene Climacteric Scale score and Work Ability Index score. Total Greene Climacteric Scale score predicted 33.8% of the total variance in the Work Ability Index score. Only the psychological and somatic subscales of the Greene Climacteric Scale were significant predictors in multiple linear regression analysis. Together, they accounted for 36.5% of total variance in Work Ability Index score. Menopausal symptoms are negatively associated with work ability and may increase the risk of sickness absence.

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L.; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

2017-11-01

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.

Establishing the environmental risk of metal contaminated river bank sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Sarah; Batty, Lesley; Byrne, Patrick

2016-04-01

Climate change predictions indicate an increase in the frequency and duration of flood events along with longer dry antecedent conditions, which could alter patterns of trace metal release from contaminated river bank sediments. This study took a laboratory mesocosm approach. Chemical analysis of water and sediment samples allowed the patterns of Pb and Zn release and key mechanisms controlling Pb and Zn mobility to be determined. Trace metal contaminants Pb and Zn were released throughout flooded periods. The highest concentrations of dissolved Pb were observed at the end of the longest flood period and high concentrations of dissolved Zn were released at the start of a flood. These concentrations were found to exceed environmental quality standards. Key mechanisms controlling mobility were (i) evaporation, precipitation and dissolution of Zn sulphate salts, (ii) anglesite solubility control of dissolved Pb, (iii) oxidation of galena and sphalerite, (iv) reductive dissolution of Mn/Fe hydroxides and co-precipitation/adsorption with Zn. In light of climate change predictions these results indicate future scenarios may include larger or more frequent transient 'pulses' of dissolved Pb and Zn released to river systems. These short lived pollution episodes could act as a significant barrier to achieving the EU Water Framework Directive objectives.

A global quantification of "normal" sleep schedules using smartphone data.

PubMed

Walch, Olivia J; Cochran, Amy; Forger, Daniel B

2016-05-01

The influence of the circadian clock on sleep scheduling has been studied extensively in the laboratory; however, the effects of society on sleep remain largely unquantified. We show how a smartphone app that we have developed, ENTRAIN, accurately collects data on sleep habits around the world. Through mathematical modeling and statistics, we find that social pressures weaken and/or conceal biological drives in the evening, leading individuals to delay their bedtime and shorten their sleep. A country's average bedtime, but not average wake time, predicts sleep duration. We further show that mathematical models based on controlled laboratory experiments predict qualitative trends in sunrise, sunset, and light level; however, these effects are attenuated in the real world around bedtime. Additionally, we find that women schedule more sleep than men and that users reporting that they are typically exposed to outdoor light go to sleep earlier and sleep more than those reporting indoor light. Finally, we find that age is the primary determinant of sleep timing, and that age plays an important role in the variability of population-level sleep habits. This work better defines and personalizes "normal" sleep, produces hypotheses for future testing in the laboratory, and suggests important ways to counteract the global sleep crisis.

The deterioration of the food situation in the Third World and the capitalist system.

PubMed

Feder, E

1981-01-01

Hunger and malnutrition are today associated with the capitalist system. The evidence points to a further deterioration of the food situation in the Third World in the foreseeable future, as a result of massive capital and technology transfers from the rich capitalist countries to the underdeveloped agricultures operated by trans-national concerns or private investors, with the active support of development assistance agencies such as the World Bank. Contrary to the superficial predictions of the World Bank, for example, poverty is bound to increase and the purchasing power of the masses must decline. Particular attention must be paid to the supply of staple foods and the proletariat. This is threatened by a variety of factors, attributable to the operation of the capitalist system. Among them are the senseless waste of Third World resources caused by the foreign investors' insatiable thirst for the quick repatriation of super-profits and the increasing orientation of Third World agricultures toward high-value or export crops (which are usually the same), an orientation which is imposed upon them by the industrial countries' agricultural development strategies. Even self-sufficiency programs for more staple foods, such as the ill-reputed Green Revolution, predictably cannot be of long duration.

Improved Dynamic Lightpath Provisioning for Large Wavelength-Division Multiplexed Backbones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Huifang; Phillips, Chris

2007-07-01

Technology already exists that would allow future optical networks to support automatic lightpath configuration in response to dynamic traffic demands. Given appropriate commercial drivers, it is possible to foresee carrier network operators migrating away from semipermanent provisioning to enable on-demand short-duration communications. However, with traditional lightpath reservation protocols, a portion of the lightpath is idly held during the signaling propagation phase, which can significantly reduce the lightpath bandwidth efficiency in large wavelength-division multiplexed backbones. This paper proposes a prebooking mechanism to improve the lightpath efficiency over traditional reactive two-way reservation protocols, consequently liberating network resources to support higher traffic loads. The prebooking mechanism predicts the time when the traffic will appear at the optical cross connects, and intelligently schedules the lightpath components such that resources are only consumed as necessary. We describe the proposed signaling procedure for both centralized and distributed control planes and analyze its performance. This paper also investigates the aggregated flow length characteristics with the self-similar incident traffic and examines the effects of traffic prediction on the blocking probability as well as the ability to support latency sensitive traffic in a wide-area environment.

Human fear conditioning and extinction: Timing is everything . . . or is it?

PubMed Central

Prenoveau, Jason M.; Craske, Michelle G.; Liao, Betty; Ornitz, Edward M.

2012-01-01

A differential fear conditioning paradigm was used with 107 healthy undergraduate participants to evaluate the effect of conditioned stimulus (CS) temporal properties on fear acquisition and extinction. Two minute duration CSs were used for Day 1 fear acquisition. Participants were randomized to receive either 1, 2, or 4 minute CS durations during Day 2 extinction. Extinction re-test was examined on Day 3 using the original acquisition CS duration (2 minutes). Findings indicated that participants who were aware of the CS+/unconditioned stimulus (US) contingency (n=52) develop a temporal expectation about when the unconditioned stimulus will be delivered. Although the shorter duration CS resulted in greater fear reduction during extinction, cessation of fear responding at re-test was the same for CS extinction durations ranging from half the CS acquisition duration to twice the CS acquisition duration. Thus, extinction performance did not predict extinction at re-test, which could have important implications for optimizing exposure therapy for anxiety disorders. PMID:22349998

Duration estimates within a modality are integrated sub-optimally

PubMed Central

Cai, Ming Bo; Eagleman, David M.

2015-01-01

Perceived duration can be influenced by various properties of sensory stimuli. For example, visual stimuli of higher temporal frequency are perceived to last longer than those of lower temporal frequency. How does the brain form a representation of duration when each of two simultaneously presented stimuli influences perceived duration in different way? To answer this question, we investigated the perceived duration of a pair of dynamic visual stimuli of different temporal frequencies in comparison to that of a single visual stimulus of either low or high temporal frequency. We found that the duration representation of simultaneously occurring visual stimuli is best described by weighting the estimates of duration based on each individual stimulus. However, the weighting performance deviates from the prediction of statistically optimal integration. In addition, we provided a Bayesian account to explain a difference in the apparent sensitivity of the psychometric curves introduced by the order in which the two stimuli are displayed in a two-alternative forced-choice task. PMID:26321965

Westward migration of tropical cyclone rapid-intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during short duration El Niño.

PubMed

Guo, Yi-Peng; Tan, Zhe-Min

2018-04-17

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, ENSO events have various durations, which can lead to different atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here we show that during short duration El Niño events, the WNP tropical cyclone rapid-intensification mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude, which is caused by reduced vertical wind shear, increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential over the westernmost WNP. The changes in these factors are caused by westward advected upper ocean heat during the decaying phase of a short duration El Niño. As super El Niño events tend to have short durations and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming, our findings have important implications for future projections of WNP tropical cyclone activity.

Fluid Shifts Before, During and After Prolonged Space Flight and Their Association with Intracranial Pressure and Visual Impairment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stenger, Michael; Hargens, Alan; Dulchavsky, Scott

2014-01-01

Future human space travel will primarily consist of long duration missions onboard the International Space Station or exploration class missions to Mars, its moons, or nearby asteroids. Current evidence suggests that long duration missions might increase risk of permanent ocular structural and functional changes, possibly due to increased intracranial pressure resulting from a spaceflight-induced cephalad (headward) fluid shift.

The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

PubMed

Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Context effects in a temporal discrimination task" further tests of the Scalar Expectancy Theory and Learning-to-Time models.

PubMed

Arantes, Joana; Machado, Armando

2008-07-01

Pigeons were trained on two temporal bisection tasks, which alternated every two sessions. In the first task, they learned to choose a red key after a 1-s signal and a green key after a 4-s signal; in the second task, they learned to choose a blue key after a 4-s signal and a yellow key after a 16-s signal. Then the pigeons were exposed to a series of test trials in order to contrast two timing models, Learning-to-Time (LeT) and Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET). The models made substantially different predictions particularly for the test trials in which the sample duration ranged from 1 s to 16 s and the choice keys were Green and Blue, the keys associated with the same 4-s samples: LeT predicted that preference for Green should increase with sample duration, a context effect, but SET predicted that preference for Green should not vary with sample duration. The results were consistent with LeT. The present study adds to the literature the finding that the context effect occurs even when the two basic discriminations are never combined in the same session.

Do predictors of smoking relapse change as a function of duration of abstinence? Findings from the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia.

PubMed

Yong, Hua-Hie; Borland, Ron; Cummings, K Michael; Partos, Timea

2018-07-01

To estimate predictors of time to smoking relapse and test if prediction varied by quit duration. Longitudinal cohort data from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country survey with annual follow up collected between 2002 and 2015. Canada, United States, United Kingdom and Australia. A total of 9171 eligible adult smokers who had made at least one quit attempt during the study period. Time to relapse was the main outcome. Predictor variables included pre-quit baseline measures of nicotine dependence, smoking and quitting-related motivations, quitting capacity and social influence, and also two post-quit measures, use of stop-smoking medications and quit duration (1-7 days, 8-14 days, 15-31 days, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2 years and 2+ years), along with socio-demographics. All factors were predictive of relapse within the first 6 months of quitting but only wanting to quit, quit intentions and number of friends who smoke were still predictive of relapse in the 6-12-month period of quitting [hazard ratios (HR) = 1.20, P < 0.05; 1.13, P < 0.05; and 1.21, P < 0.001, respectively]. Number of friends smoking was the only remaining predictor of relapse in the 1-2 years quit period (HR = 1.19, P = 0.001) with none predictive beyond the 2-year quit period. Use of stop-smoking medications during quit attempts was related negatively to relapse during the first 2 weeks of quitting (HR = 0.71-0.84), but related positively to relapse in the 1-6-month quit period (HR = 1.29-1.54). Predictive effects of all factors showed significant interaction with quit duration except for perceiving smoking as an important part of life, prematurely stubbing out a cigarette and wanting to quit. Among adult smokers in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia, factors associated with smoking relapse differ between the early and later stages of a quit attempt, suggesting that the determinants of relapse change as a function of abstinence duration. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Bidirectional, temporal associations of sleep with positive events, affect, and stressors in daily life across a week

PubMed Central

Sin, Nancy L.; Almeida, David M.; Crain, Tori L.; Kossek, Ellen Ernst; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2017-01-01

Background Sleep is intricately tied to emotional well-being, yet little is known about the reciprocal links between sleep and psychosocial experiences in the context of daily life. Purpose To evaluate daily psychosocial experiences (positive and negative affect, positive events, and stressors) as predictors of same-night sleep quality and duration, in addition to the reversed associations of nightly sleep predicting next-day experiences. Methods Daily experiences and self-reported sleep were assessed via telephone interviews for eight consecutive evenings in two replicate samples of U.S. employees (131 higher-income professionals and 181 lower-income hourly workers). Multilevel models evaluated within-person associations of daily experiences with sleep quality and duration. Analyses controlled for demographics, insomnia symptoms, the previous day’s experiences and sleep measures, and additional day-level covariates. Results Daily positive experiences were associated with improved as well as disrupted subsequent sleep. Specifically, positive events at home predicted better sleep quality in both samples, whereas greater positive affect was associated with shorter sleep duration among the higher-income professionals. Negative affect and stressors were unrelated to subsequent sleep. Results for the reversed direction revealed that better sleep quality (and, to a lesser degree, longer sleep duration) predicted emotional well-being and lower odds of encountering stressors on the following day. Conclusions Given the reciprocal relationships between sleep and daily experiences, efforts to improve well-being in daily life should reflect the importance of sleep. PMID:28188584

Bidirectional, Temporal Associations of Sleep with Positive Events, Affect, and Stressors in Daily Life Across a Week.

PubMed

Sin, Nancy L; Almeida, David M; Crain, Tori L; Kossek, Ellen Ernst; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2017-06-01

Sleep is intricately tied to emotional well-being, yet little is known about the reciprocal links between sleep and psychosocial experiences in the context of daily life. The aim of this study is to evaluate daily psychosocial experiences (positive and negative affect, positive events, and stressors) as predictors of same-night sleep quality and duration, in addition to the reversed associations of nightly sleep predicting next-day experiences. Daily experiences and self-reported sleep were assessed via telephone interviews for eight consecutive evenings in two replicate samples of US employees (131 higher-income professionals and 181 lower-income hourly workers). Multilevel models evaluated within-person associations of daily experiences with sleep quality and duration. Analyses controlled for demographics, insomnia symptoms, the previous day's experiences and sleep measures, and additional day-level covariates. Daily positive experiences were associated with improved as well as disrupted subsequent sleep. Specifically, positive events at home predicted better sleep quality in both samples, whereas greater positive affect was associated with shorter sleep duration among the higher-income professionals. Negative affect and stressors were unrelated to subsequent sleep. Results for the reversed direction revealed that better sleep quality (and, to a lesser degree, longer sleep duration) predicted emotional well-being and lower odds of encountering stressors on the following day. Given the reciprocal relationships between sleep and daily experiences, efforts to improve well-being in daily life should reflect the importance of sleep.

Microbial community dynamics induced by rewetting dry soil: summer precipitation matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Romain; Osborne, Catherine; Firestone, Mary

2015-04-01

The massive soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. We investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response, reflecting contrasting life-strategies for different groups. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Do pigeons (Columba livia) use information about the absence of food appropriately? A further look into suboptimal choice.

PubMed

Fortes, Inês; Machado, Armando; Vasconcelos, Marco

2017-11-01

In the natural environment, when an animal encounters a stimulus that signals the absence of food-a 'bad-news' stimulus-it will most likely redirect its search to another patch or prey. Because the animal does not pay the opportunity cost of waiting in the presence of a bad-news stimulus, the properties of the stimulus (e.g., its duration and probability) may have little impact in the evolution of the decision processes deployed in these circumstances. Hence, in the laboratory, when animals are forced to experience a bad-news stimulus they seem to ignore its duration, even though they pay the cost of waiting. Under certain circumstances, this insensitivity to the opportunity cost can lead to suboptimal preferences, such as a preference for an option yielding a low rather than a high rate of reinforcement. In 2 experiments, we tested Vasconcelos, Monteiro, and Kacelnik's (2015) assumption that, if given the opportunity, animals will escape the bad-news stimulus. To predict when an escape response should occur, we incorporated ideas from the prey choice model into Vasconcelos et al. (2015) model and made 2 novel predictions. Namely, both longer intertrial intervals and longer durations of signals predicting food or no food should lead to higher proportions of escape responses. The results of 2 experiments with pigeons supported these predictions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Big data prediction of durations for online collective actions based on peak's timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Shizhao; Wang, Zheng; Pujia, Wangmo; Nie, Yuan; Lu, Peng

2018-02-01

Peak Model states that each collective action has a life circle, which contains four periods of "prepare", "outbreak", "peak", and "vanish"; and the peak determines the max energy and the whole process. The peak model's re-simulation indicates that there seems to be a stable ratio between the peak's timing (TP) and the total span (T) or duration of collective actions, which needs further validations through empirical data of collective actions. Therefore, the daily big data of online collective actions is applied to validate the model; and the key is to check the ratio between peak's timing and the total span. The big data is obtained from online data recording & mining of websites. It is verified by the empirical big data that there is a stable ratio between TP and T; furthermore, it seems to be normally distributed. This rule holds for both the general cases and the sub-types of collective actions. Given the distribution of the ratio, estimated probability density function can be obtained, and therefore the span can be predicted via the peak's timing. Under the scenario of big data, the instant span (how long the collective action lasts or when it ends) will be monitored and predicted in real-time. With denser data (Big Data), the estimation of the ratio's distribution gets more robust, and the prediction of collective actions' spans or durations will be more accurate.

Comparison of Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET) and the Learning-to-Time (LeT) model in a successive temporal bisection task.

PubMed

Arantes, Joana

2008-06-01

The present research tested the generality of the "context effect" previously reported in experiments using temporal double bisection tasks [e.g., Arantes, J., Machado, A. Context effects in a temporal discrimination task: Further tests of the Scalar Expectancy Theory and Learning-to-Time models. J. Exp. Anal. Behav., in press]. Pigeons learned two temporal discriminations in which all the stimuli appear successively: 1s (red) vs. 4s (green) and 4s (blue) vs. 16s (yellow). Then, two tests were conducted to compare predictions of two timing models, Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET) and the Learning-to-Time (LeT) model. In one test, two psychometric functions were obtained by presenting pigeons with intermediate signal durations (1-4s and 4-16s). Results were mixed. In the critical test, pigeons were exposed to signals ranging from 1 to 16s and followed by the green or the blue key. Whereas SET predicted that the relative response rate to each of these keys should be independent of the signal duration, LeT predicted that the relative response rate to the green key (compared with the blue key) should increase with the signal duration. Results were consistent with LeT's predictions, showing that the context effect is obtained even when subjects do not need to make a choice between two keys presented simultaneously.

Operations planning for Space Station Freedom - And beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Stephen S.; Martin, Thomas E.; Durham, H. J.

1992-01-01

The potential of automated planning and electronic execution systems for enhancing operations on board Space Station Freedom (SSF) are discussed. To exploit this potential the Operations Planning and Scheduling Subsystem is being developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. Such systems may also make valuable contributions to the operation of resource-constrained, long-duration space habitats of the future. Points that should be considered during the design of future long-duration manned space missions are discussed. Early development of a detailed operations concept as an end-to-end mission description offers a basis for iterative design evaluation, refinement, and option comparison, particularly when used with an advanced operations planning system capable of modeling the operations and resource constraints of the proposed designs.

Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

2012-01-01

Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

Dynamics of convulsive seizure termination and postictal generalized EEG suppression

PubMed Central

Bauer, Prisca R.; Thijs, Roland D.; Lamberts, Robert J.; Velis, Demetrios N.; Visser, Gerhard H.; Tolner, Else A.; Sander, Josemir W.; Lopes da Silva, Fernando H.; Kalitzin, Stiliyan N.

2017-01-01

Abstract It is not fully understood how seizures terminate and why some seizures are followed by a period of complete brain activity suppression, postictal generalized EEG suppression. This is clinically relevant as there is a potential association between postictal generalized EEG suppression, cardiorespiratory arrest and sudden death following a seizure. We combined human encephalographic seizure data with data of a computational model of seizures to elucidate the neuronal network dynamics underlying seizure termination and the postictal generalized EEG suppression state. A multi-unit computational neural mass model of epileptic seizure termination and postictal recovery was developed. The model provided three predictions that were validated in EEG recordings of 48 convulsive seizures from 48 subjects with refractory focal epilepsy (20 females, age range 15–61 years). The duration of ictal and postictal generalized EEG suppression periods in human EEG followed a gamma probability distribution indicative of a deterministic process (shape parameter 2.6 and 1.5, respectively) as predicted by the model. In the model and in humans, the time between two clonic bursts increased exponentially from the start of the clonic phase of the seizure. The terminal interclonic interval, calculated using the projected terminal value of the log-linear fit of the clonic frequency decrease was correlated with the presence and duration of postictal suppression. The projected terminal interclonic interval explained 41% of the variation in postictal generalized EEG suppression duration (P < 0.02). Conversely, postictal generalized EEG suppression duration explained 34% of the variation in the last interclonic interval duration. Our findings suggest that postictal generalized EEG suppression is a separate brain state and that seizure termination is a plastic and autonomous process, reflected in increased duration of interclonic intervals that determine the duration of postictal generalized EEG suppression. PMID:28073789

Improved Dynamic Modeling of the Cascade Distillation Subsystem and Analysis of Factors Affecting Its Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Bruce A.; Anderson, Molly S.

2015-01-01

The Cascade Distillation Subsystem (CDS) is a rotary multistage distiller being developed to serve as the primary processor for wastewater recovery during long-duration space missions. The CDS could be integrated with a system similar to the International Space Station Water Processor Assembly to form a complete water recovery system for future missions. A preliminary chemical process simulation was previously developed using Aspen Custom Modeler® (ACM), but it could not simulate thermal startup and lacked detailed analysis of several key internal processes, including heat transfer between stages. This paper describes modifications to the ACM simulation of the CDS that improve its capabilities and the accuracy of its predictions. Notably, the modified version can be used to model thermal startup and predicts the total energy consumption of the CDS. The simulation has been validated for both NaC1 solution and pretreated urine feeds and no longer requires retuning when operating parameters change. The simulation was also used to predict how internal processes and operating conditions of the CDS affect its performance. In particular, it is shown that the coefficient of performance of the thermoelectric heat pump used to provide heating and cooling for the CDS is the largest factor in determining CDS efficiency. Intrastage heat transfer affects CDS performance indirectly through effects on the coefficient of performance.

Epileptic seizure predictors based on computational intelligence techniques: a comparative study with 278 patients.

PubMed

Alexandre Teixeira, César; Direito, Bruno; Bandarabadi, Mojtaba; Le Van Quyen, Michel; Valderrama, Mario; Schelter, Bjoern; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Navarro, Vincent; Sales, Francisco; Dourado, António

2014-05-01

The ability of computational intelligence methods to predict epileptic seizures is evaluated in long-term EEG recordings of 278 patients suffering from pharmaco-resistant partial epilepsy, also known as refractory epilepsy. This extensive study in seizure prediction considers the 278 patients from the European Epilepsy Database, collected in three epilepsy centres: Hôpital Pitié-là-Salpêtrière, Paris, France; Universitätsklinikum Freiburg, Germany; Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Portugal. For a considerable number of patients it was possible to find a patient specific predictor with an acceptable performance, as for example predictors that anticipate at least half of the seizures with a rate of false alarms of no more than 1 in 6 h (0.15 h⁻¹). We observed that the epileptic focus localization, data sampling frequency, testing duration, number of seizures in testing, type of machine learning, and preictal time influence significantly the prediction performance. The results allow to face optimistically the feasibility of a patient specific prospective alarming system, based on machine learning techniques by considering the combination of several univariate (single-channel) electroencephalogram features. We envisage that this work will serve as benchmark data that will be of valuable importance for future studies based on the European Epilepsy Database. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dynamic model for predicting growth in zinc-deficient stunted infants given supplemental zinc.

PubMed

Wastney, Meryl E; McDonald, Christine M; King, Janet C

2018-05-01

Zinc deficiency limits infant growth and increases susceptibility to infections, which further compromises growth. Zinc supplementation improves the growth of zinc-deficient stunted infants, but the amount, frequency, and duration of zinc supplementation required to restore growth in an individual child is unknown. A dynamic model of zinc metabolism that predicts changes in weight and length of zinc-deficient, stunted infants with dietary zinc would be useful to define effective zinc supplementation regimens. The aims of this study were to develop a dynamic model for zinc metabolism in stunted, zinc-deficient infants and to use that model to predict the growth response when those infants are given zinc supplements. A model of zinc metabolism was developed using data on zinc kinetics, tissue zinc, and growth requirements for healthy 9-mo-old infants. The kinetic model was converted to a dynamic model by replacing the rate constants for zinc absorption and excretion with functions for these processes that change with zinc intake. Predictions of the dynamic model, parameterized for zinc-deficient, stunted infants, were compared with the results of 5 published zinc intervention trials. The model was then used to predict the results for zinc supplementation regimes that varied in the amount, frequency, and duration of zinc dosing. Model predictions agreed with published changes in plasma zinc after zinc supplementation. Predictions of weight and length agreed with 2 studies, but overpredicted values from a third study in which other nutrient deficiencies may have been growth limiting; the model predicted that zinc absorption was impaired in that study. The model suggests that frequent, smaller doses (5-10 mg Zn/d) are more effective for increasing growth in stunted, zinc-deficient 9-mo-old infants than are larger, less-frequent doses. The dose amount affects the duration of dosing necessary to restore and maintain plasma zinc concentration and growth.

A Possible Link between Supra-Second Open-Ended Timing Sensitivity and Obsessive-Compulsive Tendencies

PubMed Central

Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Ashkenazi, Hamutal; Dar, Reuven

2016-01-01

One of the main characteristics of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is the persistent feeling of uncertainty, affecting many domains of actions and feelings. It was recently hypothesized that OCD uncertainty is related to attenuated access to internal states. As supra-second timing is associated with bodily and interoceptive awareness, we examined whether supra-second timing would be associated with OC tendencies. We measured supra-second (~9 s) and sub-second (~450 ms) timing along with control non-temporal perceptual tasks in a group of 60 university students. Supra-second timing was measured either with fixed criterion tasks requiring to temporally discriminate between two predefined fixed interval durations (9 vs. 9.9 s), or with an open-ended task requiring to discriminate between 9 s and longer intervals which were of varying durations that were not a priori known to the participants. The open-ended task employed an adaptive Bayesian procedure that efficiently estimated the duration difference required to discriminate 9 s from longer intervals. We also assessed symptoms of OCD, depression, and anxiety. Open-ended supra-second temporal sensitivity was correlated with OC tendencies, as predicted (even after controlling for depression and anxiety), whereas the other tasks were not. Higher OC tendencies were associated with lower timing sensitivity to 9 s intervals such that participants with higher OC tendency scores required longer interval differences to discriminate 9 s from longer intervals. While these results need to be substantiated in future research, they suggest that open-ended timing tasks, as those encountered in real-life (e.g., estimating how long it would take to complete a task), might be adversely affected in OCD. PMID:27445725

Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) symptom-based phenotypes in two clinical cohorts of adult patients in the UK and The Netherlands.

PubMed

Collin, Simon M; Nikolaus, Stephanie; Heron, Jon; Knoop, Hans; White, Peter D; Crawley, Esther

2016-02-01

Studies have provided evidence of heterogeneity within chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), but few have used data from large cohorts of CFS patients or replication samples. 29 UK secondary-care CFS services recorded the presence/absence of 12 CFS-related symptoms; 8 of these symptoms were recorded by a Dutch tertiary service. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to assign symptom profiles (phenotypes). Regression models were fitted with phenotype as outcome (in relation to age, sex, BMI, duration of illness) and exposure (in relation to comorbidities and patient-reported measures). Data were available for 7041 UK and 1392 Dutch patients. Almost all patients in both cohorts presented with post-exertional malaise, cognitive dysfunction and disturbed/unrefreshing sleep, and these 3 symptoms were excluded from LCA. In UK patients, six phenotypes emerged: 'full' polysymptomatic (median 8, IQR 7-9 symptoms) 32.8%; 'pain-only' (muscle/joint) 20.3%; 'sore throat/painful lymph node' 4.5%; and 'oligosymptomatic' (median 1, IQR 0-2 symptoms) 4.7%. Two 'partial' polysymptomatic phenotypes were similar to the 'full' phenotype, bar absence of dizziness/nausea/palpitations (21.4%) or sore throat/painful lymph nodes (16.3%). Women and patients with longer duration of illness were more likely to be polysymptomatic. Polysymptomatic patients had more severe illness and more comorbidities. LCA restricted to 5 symptoms recorded in both cohorts indicated 3 classes (polysymptomatic, oligosymptomatic, pain-only), which were replicated in Dutch data. Adults with CFS may have one of 6 symptom-based phenotypes associated with sex, duration and severity of illness, and comorbidity. Future research needs to determine whether phenotypes predict treatment outcomes, and require different treatments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mental health predictors of breastfeeding initiation and continuation among HIV infected and uninfected women in a South African birth cohort study.

PubMed

Thomas, Eileen; Kuo, Caroline; Cohen, Sophie; Hoare, Jacqueline; Koen, Natassja; Barnett, Whitney; Zar, Heather J; Stein, Dan J

2017-09-01

Breastfeeding is a cost-effective, yet underutilized strategy to promote maternal and infant health in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Breastfeeding remains challenging for mothers living with HIV in LMICs, yet few studies have examined mental health predictors of breastfeeding initiation and continuation. We investigated breastfeeding among mothers by HIV status in South Africa, evaluating predictors of breastfeeding initiation and continuation to identify intervention-targets. Breastfeeding patterns were investigated in a subsample of 899 breastfeeding mothers from the Drakenstein Child Health Study; a prospective birth cohort of 1225 pregnant women, between March 2012 and March 2015 in a peri-urban area. Breastfeeding was assessed at 5 time-points between 6weeks and 24months' infant age. Cox proportional hazard models evaluated breastfeeding initiation and duration. Logistic regression models with breastfeeding non-initiation as the outcome parameter were performed to determine associations with maternal sociodemographic, psychosocial factors and gestational outcomes. More HIV-uninfected mothers initiated breastfeeding (n=685, 97%) than HIV-infected mothers (n=87, 45%). Median duration of exclusive breastfeeding was short (2months), but HIV-infected mothers engaged in exclusive breastfeeding for longer duration than uninfected mothers (3 vs 2months). Despite concerning high rates, mental disorders were not significant predictors of breastfeeding behaviour. Employment and HIV diagnosis during pregnancy predicted a lower likelihood of breastfeeding initiation among HIV-infected mothers, while employment was associated with earlier breastfeeding-discontinuation in HIV-uninfected mothers. Findings indicate that future interventions should target sub-populations such as HIV-infected women because of distinct needs. Workplace interventions appear particularly key for mothers in our study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-06-01

Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.

Cost prediction following traumatic brain injury: model development and validation.

PubMed

Spitz, Gershon; McKenzie, Dean; Attwood, David; Ponsford, Jennie L

2016-02-01

The ability to predict costs following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) would assist in planning treatment and support services by healthcare providers, insurers and other agencies. The objective of the current study was to develop predictive models of hospital, medical, paramedical, and long-term care (LTC) costs for the first 10 years following a TBI. The sample comprised 798 participants with TBI, the majority of whom were male and aged between 15 and 34 at time of injury. Costing information was obtained for hospital, medical, paramedical, and LTC costs up to 10 years postinjury. Demographic and injury-severity variables were collected at the time of admission to the rehabilitation hospital. Duration of PTA was the most important single predictor for each cost type. The final models predicted 44% of hospital costs, 26% of medical costs, 23% of paramedical costs, and 34% of LTC costs. Greater costs were incurred, depending on cost type, for individuals with longer PTA duration, obtaining a limb or chest injury, a lower GCS score, older age at injury, not being married or defacto prior to injury, living in metropolitan areas, and those reporting premorbid excessive or problem alcohol use. This study has provided a comprehensive analysis of factors predicting various types of costs following TBI, with the combination of injury-related and demographic variables predicting 23-44% of costs. PTA duration was the strongest predictor across all cost categories. These factors may be used for the planning and case management of individuals following TBI. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Linking melodic expectation to expressive performance timing and perceived musical tension.

PubMed

Gingras, Bruno; Pearce, Marcus T; Goodchild, Meghan; Dean, Roger T; Wiggins, Geraint; McAdams, Stephen

2016-04-01

This research explored the relations between the predictability of musical structure, expressive timing in performance, and listeners' perceived musical tension. Studies analyzing the influence of expressive timing on listeners' affective responses have been constrained by the fact that, in most pieces, the notated durations limit performers' interpretive freedom. To circumvent this issue, we focused on the unmeasured prelude, a semi-improvisatory genre without notated durations. In Experiment 1, 12 professional harpsichordists recorded an unmeasured prelude on a harpsichord equipped with a MIDI console. Melodic expectation was assessed using a probabilistic model (IDyOM [Information Dynamics of Music]) whose expectations have been previously shown to match closely those of human listeners. Performance timing information was extracted from the MIDI data using a score-performance matching algorithm. Time-series analyses showed that, in a piece with unspecified note durations, the predictability of melodic structure measurably influenced tempo fluctuations in performance. In Experiment 2, another 10 harpsichordists, 20 nonharpsichordist musicians, and 20 nonmusicians listened to the recordings from Experiment 1 and rated the perceived tension continuously. Granger causality analyses were conducted to investigate predictive relations among melodic expectation, expressive timing, and perceived tension. Although melodic expectation, as modeled by IDyOM, modestly predicted perceived tension for all participant groups, neither of its components, information content or entropy, was Granger causal. In contrast, expressive timing was a strong predictor and was Granger causal. However, because melodic expectation was also predictive of expressive timing, our results outline a complete chain of influence from predictability of melodic structure via expressive performance timing to perceived musical tension. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Outcomes: Lessons From the COMPANION Trial.

PubMed

Kalscheur, Matthew M; Kipp, Ryan T; Tattersall, Matthew C; Mei, Chaoqun; Buhr, Kevin A; DeMets, David L; Field, Michael E; Eckhardt, Lee L; Page, C David

2018-01-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients with reduced left ventricular function and intraventricular conduction delay. However, individual outcomes vary significantly. This study sought to use a machine learning algorithm to develop a model to predict outcomes after CRT. Models were developed with machine learning algorithms to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization at 12 months post-CRT in the COMPANION trial (Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing, and Defibrillation in Heart Failure). The best performing model was developed with the random forest algorithm. The ability of this model to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality alone was compared with discrimination obtained using a combination of bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the 595 patients with CRT-defibrillator in the COMPANION trial, 105 deaths occurred (median follow-up, 15.7 months). The survival difference across subgroups differentiated by bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration did not reach significance ( P =0.08). The random forest model produced quartiles of patients with an 8-fold difference in survival between those with the highest and lowest predicted probability for events (hazard ratio, 7.96; P <0.0001). The model also discriminated the risk of the composite end point of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization better than subgroups based on bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the COMPANION trial, a machine learning algorithm produced a model that predicted clinical outcomes after CRT. Applied before device implant, this model may better differentiate outcomes over current clinical discriminators and improve shared decision-making with patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data

PubMed Central

Sprague, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Social influence can lead to behavioural ‘fads’ that are briefly popular and quickly die out. Various models have been proposed for these phenomena, but empirical evidence of their accuracy as real-world predictive tools has so far been absent. Here we find that a ‘complex contagion’ model accurately describes the spread of behaviours driven by online sharing. We found that standard, ‘simple’, contagion often fails to capture both the rapid spread and the long tails of popularity seen in real fads, where our complex contagion model succeeds. Complex contagion also has predictive power: it successfully predicted the peak time and duration of the ALS Icebucket Challenge. The fast spread and longer duration of fads driven by complex contagion has important implications for activities such as publicity campaigns and charity drives. PMID:28686719

Evidence for chronic lung impairment in patients treated for pulmonary tuberculosis.

PubMed

Vecino, Mauricio; Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Slocum, Philip; Bae, Sejong; Munguia, Guadalupe; Miller, Thaddeus; Fernandez, Michel; Drewyer, Gerry; Weis, Stephen E

2011-11-01

Patients with pulmonary tuberculosis are likely to develop pulmonary impairment after tuberculosis (PIAT). The stability of PIAT and the relationship of PIAT to the duration of delay in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment have not been fully characterized. We performed serial pulmonary function tests (PFTs) in a cohort treated for pulmonary tuberculosis after 20 weeks of tuberculosis therapy and again on or after treatment completion to determine the stability of PIAT. PFTs were compared with the duration of delay in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment, as well as other demographic variables. The median duration between the first and second tests was 15 (interquartile range 9-34) weeks. The mean change in FVC was -0.02l (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.09, 0.06), and the % predicted was -0.02 (95% CI -2.17, 2.12). FEV1 changes were 0l (95% CI -0.05, 0.06), and the % predicted was -0.11 (95% CI -1.82, 1.60). PIAT was not related to the duration of delay in tuberculosis diagnosis or treatment, age or smoking. PIAT was not associated with the duration of delay in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment and did not significantly change during follow-up. These data demonstrate that, for many individuals, the completion of tuberculosis treatment is the beginning, not the end, of their tuberculosis illness. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Perception-action coupling in complex game play: Exploring the quiet eye in contested basketball jump shots.

PubMed

Klostermann, André; Panchuk, Derek; Farrow, Damian

2018-05-01

The duration of the final fixation before movement initiation - a gaze strategy labelled quiet eye - has been found to explain differences in motor expertise and performance in precision tasks. To date, research only addressed this phenomenon in situations without adversarial constraints. In the present study, we compared the quiet-eye behaviour of intermediately-skilled and highly-skilled basketball players in defended vs. undefended game situations. We predicted differences in quiet-eye duration as a function of skill and performance particularly resulting from late quiet-eye offsets. Results indicated performance-enhancing effects of long quiet-eye durations in the defended but not in the undefended game situation. Furthermore, in line with our prediction, later quiet-eye offsets were associated with superior performance elucidating the phenomenon's relevance in online-demanding motor tasks. Further, earlier quiet-eye onsets were linked to successful performance supporting earlier suggestions that it is not only the duration but also the timing that matters. These findings not only extend the positive effects of the quiet eye in motor performance to dynamic game-play situations but also support the role of the quiet eye in response to programming and information processing respectively.

Individual Differences in Infant Oculomotor Behavior During the Viewing of Complex Naturalistic Scenes.

PubMed

Wass, Sam V; Smith, Tim J

2014-07-01

Little research hitherto has examined how individual differences in attention, as assessed using standard experimental paradigms, relate to individual differences in how attention is spontaneously allocated in more naturalistic contexts. Here, we analyzed the time intervals between refoveating eye movements (fixation durations) while typically developing 11-month-old infants viewed a 90-min battery ranging from complex dynamic to noncomplex static materials. The same infants also completed experimental assessments of cognitive control, psychomotor reaction times (RT), processing speed (indexed via peak look during habituation), and arousal (indexed via tonic pupil size). High test-retest reliability was found for fixation duration, across testing sessions and across types of viewing material. Increased cognitive control and increased arousal were associated with reduced variability in fixation duration. For fixations to dynamic stimuli, in which a large proportion of saccades may be exogenously cued, we found that psychomotor RT measures were most predictive of mean fixation duration; for fixations to static stimuli, in contrast, in which there is less exogenous attentional capture, we found that psychomotor RT did not predict performance, but that measures of cognitive control and arousal did. The implications of these findings for understanding the development of attentional control in naturalistic settings are discussed.

Form-To-Expectation Matching Effects on First-Pass Eye Movement Measures During Reading

PubMed Central

Farmer, Thomas A.; Yan, Shaorong; Bicknell, Klinton; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Recent EEG/MEG studies suggest that when contextual information is highly predictive of some property of a linguistic signal, expectations generated from context can be translated into surprisingly low-level estimates of the physical form-based properties likely to occur in subsequent portions of the unfolding signal. Whether form-based expectations are generated and assessed during natural reading, however, remains unclear. We monitored eye movements while participants read phonologically typical and atypical nouns in noun-predictive contexts (Experiment 1), demonstrating that when a noun is strongly expected, fixation durations on first-pass eye movement measures, including first fixation duration, gaze duration, and go-past times, are shorter for nouns with category typical form-based features. In Experiments 2 and 3, typical and atypical nouns were placed in sentential contexts normed to create expectations of variable strength for a noun. Context and typicality interacted significantly at gaze duration. These results suggest that during reading, form-based expectations that are translated from higher-level category-based expectancies can facilitate the processing of a word in context, and that their effect on lexical processing is graded based on the strength of category expectancy. PMID:25915072

The Work Instability Scale for rheumatoid arthritis predicts arthritis-related work transitions within 12 months.

PubMed

Tang, Kenneth; Beaton, Dorcas E; Gignac, Monique A M; Lacaille, Diane; Zhang, Wei; Bombardier, Claire

2010-11-01

Among people with arthritis, the need for work transitions may signal a risk for more adverse work outcomes in the future, such as permanent work loss. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of the Work Instability Scale for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA-WIS) to predict arthritis-related work transitions within a 12-month period. Workers with osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis (n = 250) from 3 clinical sites participated in self-administered surveys that assessed the impact of health on employment at multiple time points over 12 months. Multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to assess the ability of the RA-WIS (range 0-23, where 23 = highest work instability) to predict 4 types of work transition: reductions in work hours, disability leaves of absence, changes in job/occupation, or temporary unemployment, assembled as a composite outcome. Covariates assessed include age, sex, education, marital status, income, pain intensity, disease duration, and the Health Assessment Questionnaire. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCCs) were also assessed to further examine the predictive ability of the RA-WIS and to determine optimal cut points for predicting specific work transitions. After 12 months, 21.7% (n = 50 of 230) of the participants had indicated at least one arthritis-related work transition. Higher baseline RA-WIS was predictive of such an outcome (relative risk [RR] 1.05 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.00-1.11]), particularly at >17 (RR 2.30 [95% CI 1.11-4.77]). The RA-WIS cut point of >13 was found to be most accurate for prediction (AUROCC 0.68 [95% CI 0.58-0.78]). The RA-WIS demonstrated the ability to predict arthritis-related work transitions within a short timeframe, and could be a promising measurement candidate for risk prognostication where work disability outcomes are of concern. Copyright © 2010 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Biofilms On Orbit and On Earth: Current Methods, Future Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vega, Leticia

2013-01-01

Biofilms have played a significant role on the effectiveness of life support hardware on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). This presentation will discuss how biofilms impact flight hardware, how on orbit biofilms are analyzed from an engineering and research perspective, and future needs to analyze and utilize biofilms for long duration, deep space missions.

Prediction Model for Predicting Powdery Mildew using ANN for Medicinal Plant— Picrorhiza kurrooa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shivling, V. D.; Ghanshyam, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Kumar, Sanjay; Sharma, Radhika; Kumar, Dinesh; Sharma, Atul; Sharma, Sudhir Kumar

2017-02-01

Plant disease fore casting system is an important system as it can be used for prediction of disease, further it can be used as an alert system to warn the farmers in advance so as to protect their crop from being getting infected. Fore casting system will predict the risk of infection for crop by using the environmental factors that favor in germination of disease. In this study an artificial neural network based system for predicting the risk of powdery mildew in Picrorhiza kurrooa was developed. For development, Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm was used having a single hidden layer of ten nodes. Temperature and duration of wetness are the major environmental factors that favor infection. Experimental data was used as a training set and some percentage of data was used for testing and validation. The performance of the system was measured in the form of the coefficient of correlation (R), coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error and root mean square error. For simulating the network an inter face was developed. Using this interface the network was simulated by putting temperature and wetness duration so as to predict the level of risk at that particular value of the input data.

Implementation and Verification of the Chen Prediction Technique for Forecasting Large Nonrecurrent Storms*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arge, C. N.; Chen, J.; Slinker, S.; Pizzo, V. J.

2000-05-01

The method of Chen et al. [1997, JGR, 101, 27499] is designed to accurately identify and predict the occurrence, duration, and strength of largegeomagnetic storms using real-time solar wind data. The method estimates the IMF and the geoeffectiveness of the solar wind upstream of a monitor and can provide warning times that range from a few hours to more than 10 hours. The model uses physical features of solar wind structures that cause large storms: long durations of southward interplanetary magnetic field. It is currently undergoing testing, improvement, and validation at NOAA/SEC in effort to transition it into a real-time space weather forecasting tool. The original version of the model has modified so that it now makes hourly (as opposed to daily) predictions and has been improved in effort to enhance both its predictive capability and reliability. In this paper, we report on the results of a 2-year historical verification study of the model using ACE real-time data. The prediction performances of the original and improved versions of the model are then compared. A real-time prediction web page has been developed and is on line at NOAA/SEC. *Work supported by ONR.

Probabilistic short-term forecasting of eruption rate at Kīlauea Volcano using a physics-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, K. R.

2016-12-01

Deterministic models of volcanic eruptions yield predictions of future activity conditioned on uncertainty in the current state of the system. Physics-based eruption models are well-suited for deterministic forecasting as they can relate magma physics with a wide range of observations. Yet, physics-based eruption forecasting is strongly limited by an inadequate understanding of volcanic systems, and the need for eruption models to be computationally tractable. At Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, episodic depressurization-pressurization cycles of the magma system generate correlated, quasi-exponential variations in ground deformation and surface height of the active summit lava lake. Deflations are associated with reductions in eruption rate, or even brief eruptive pauses, and thus partly control lava flow advance rates and associated hazard. Because of the relatively well-understood nature of Kīlauea's shallow magma plumbing system, and because more than 600 of these events have been recorded to date, they offer a unique opportunity to refine a physics-based effusive eruption forecasting approach and apply it to lava eruption rates over short (hours to days) time periods. A simple physical model of the volcano ascribes observed data to temporary reductions in magma supply to an elastic reservoir filled with compressible magma. This model can be used to predict the evolution of an ongoing event, but because the mechanism that triggers events is unknown, event durations are modeled stochastically from previous observations. A Bayesian approach incorporates diverse data sets and prior information to simultaneously estimate uncertain model parameters and future states of the system. Forecasts take the form of probability distributions for eruption rate or cumulative erupted volume at some future time. Results demonstrate the significant uncertainties that still remain even for short-term eruption forecasting at a well-monitored volcano - but also the value of a physics-based, mixed deterministic-probabilistic eruption forecasting approach in reducing and quantifying these uncertainties.

Can Rheumatologists Predict Eventual Need for Orthopaedic Intervention in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis? Results of a Systematic Review and Analysis of Two UK Inception Cohorts.

PubMed

Nikiphorou, Elena; Carpenter, Lewis; Norton, Sam; Morris, Stephen; MacGregor, Alex; Dixey, Josh; Williams, Peter; Kiely, Patrick; Walsh, David Andrew; Young, Adam

2017-03-01

The structural damage caused by rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can often be mitigated by orthopaedic surgery in late disease. This study evaluates the value of predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention. A systematic review of literature was undertaken to identify papers describing predictive factors for orthopaedic surgery in RA. Manuscripts were selected if they met inclusion criteria of cohort study design, diagnosis of RA, follow-up duration/disease duration ≥3 years, any orthopaedic surgical interventions recorded, and then summarised for predictive factors. A separate predictive analysis was performed on two consecutive UK Early RA cohorts, linked to national datasets. The literature search identified 15 reports examining predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention, 4 inception, 5 prospective and 6 retrospective. Despite considerable variation, acute phase, x-ray scores, women and genotyping were the most commonly reported prognostic markers. The current predictive analysis included 1602 procedures performed in 711 patients (25-year cumulative incidence 26%). Earlier recruitment year, erosions and lower haemoglobin predicted both intermediate and major surgery (P<0.05). Studies report variations in type of and predictive power of clinical and laboratory parameters for different surgical interventions suggesting specific contributions from different pathological and/or patient-level factors. Our current analysis suggests that attention to non-inflammatory factors in addition to suppression of inflammation is needed to minimise the burden of orthopaedic surgery.

Russian Countermeasure Systems for Adverse Effects of Microgravity on Long-Duration ISS Flights.

PubMed

Kozlovskaya, Inessa B; Yarmanova, E N; Yegorov, A D; Stepantsov, V I; Fomina, E V; Tomilovaskaya, E S

2015-12-01

The system of countermeasures for the adverse effects of microgravity developed in the USSR supported the successful implementation of long-duration spaceflight (LDS) programs on the Salyut and Mir orbital stations and was subsequently adapted for flights on the International Space Station (ISS). From 2000 through 2010, crews completed 26 ISS flight increments ranging in duration from 140 to 216 d, with the participation of 27 Russian cosmonauts. These flights have made it possible to more precisely determine a crew-member's level of conditioning, better assess the advantages and disadvantages of training processes, and determine prospects for future developments.

Objective Cognitive Functioning in Self-reported Habitual Short Sleepers not Reporting Daytime Dysfunction: Examination of Impulsivity via Delay Discounting.

PubMed

Curtis, Brian J; Williams, Paula G; Anderson, Jeffrey S

2018-05-30

1) Examine performance on an objective measure of reward-related cognitive impulsivity (delay discounting) among self-reported habitual short sleepers and medium (i.e., recommended 7-9 hours) length sleepers either reporting or not reporting daytime dysfunction; 2) Inform the debate regarding what type and duration of short sleep (e.g., 21 to 24 hours of total sleep deprivation, self-reported habitual short sleep duration) meaningfully influences cognitive impulsivity; 3) Compare the predictive utility of sleep duration and perceived dysfunction to other factors previously shown to influence cognitive impulsivity via delay discounting performance (age, income, education, and fluid intelligence). We analyzed data from 1,190 adults from the Human Connectome Project database. Participants were grouped on whether they reported habitual short (≤ 6 hours) vs. medium length (7-9 hours) sleep duration and whether they perceived daytime dysfunction using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. All short sleepers exhibited increased delay discounting compared to all medium length sleepers, regardless of perceived dysfunction. Of the variables examined, self-reported sleep duration was the strongest predictor of delay discounting behavior between groups and across all 1,190 participants. Individuals who report habitual short sleep are likely to exhibit increased reward-related cognitive impulsivity regardless of perceived sleep-related daytime impairment. Therefore, there is reason to suspect that these individuals exhibit more daytime dysfunction, in the form of reward-related cognitive impulsivity, than they may assume. Current findings suggest that assessment of sleep duration over the prior month has meaningful predictive utility for human reward-related impulsivity.

Children's sleep and autonomic function: low sleep quality has an impact on heart rate variability.

PubMed

Michels, Nathalie; Clays, Els; De Buyzere, Marc; Vanaelst, Barbara; De Henauw, Stefaan; Sioen, Isabelle

2013-12-01

Short sleep duration and poor sleep quality in children have been associated with concentration, problem behavior, and emotional instability, but recently also with disrupted autonomic nervous function, which predicts cardiovascular health. Heart rate variability (HRV) was used as noninvasive indicator of autonomic function to examine the influence of sleep. Cross-sectional and longitudinal observational study on the effect of sleep on HRV. Belgian children (5-11 years) of the ChiBS study in 2010 (N = 334) and 2011 (N = 293). N/A. Sleep duration was reported and in a subgroup sleep quality (efficiency, latency, awakenings) was measured with accelerometry. High-frequency (HF) power and autonomic balance (LF/HF) were calculated on supine 5-minute HRV measurements. Stress was measured by emotion and problem behavior questionnaires. Sleep duration and quality were used as HRV predictors in corrected cross-sectional and longitudinal regressions. Stress was tested as mediator (intermediate pathway) or moderator (interaction) in sleep-HRV associations. In both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, long sleep latency could predict lower HF (parasympathetic activity), while nocturnal awakenings, sleep latency, low sleep efficiency, and low corrected sleep duration were related to higher LF/HF (sympathetic/parasympathetic balance). Parental reported sleep duration was not associated with HRV. The significances remained after correction for stress. Stress was not a mediator, but a moderator (enhancer) in the relationship between sleep quality and HRV. Low sleep quality but not parent-reported low sleep duration leads to an unhealthier heart rate variability pattern (sympathetic over parasympathetic dominance). This stresses the importance of good sleep quality for cardiovascular health in children.

Skin temperature increase mediated by wearable, long duration, low-intensity therapeutic ultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langer, Matthew D.; Huang, Wenyi; Ghanem, Angi; Guo, Yuan; Lewis, George K.

2017-03-01

One of the safety concerns with the delivery of therapeutic ultrasound is overheating of the transducer-skin interface due to poor or improper coupling. The objective of this research was to define a model that could be used to calculate the heating in the skin as a result of a novel, wearable long-duration ultrasound device. This model was used to determine that the maximum heating in the skin remained below the minimum threshold necessary to cause thermal injury over multiple hours of use. In addition to this model data, a human clinical study used wire thermocouples on the skin surface to measure heating characteristics during treatment with the sustained ultrasound system. Parametric analysis of the model determined that the maximum temperature increase is at the surface of the skin ranged from 40-41.8° C when perfusion was taken into account. The clinical data agreed well with the model predictions. The average steady state temperature observed across all 44 subjects was 40°C. The maximum temperature observed was less than 44° C, which is clinically safe for over 5 hours of human skin contact. The resultant clinical temperature data paired well with the model data suggesting the model can be used for future transducer and ultrasound system design simulation. As a result, the device was validated for thermal safety for typical users and use conditions.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.