Predictive systems ecology.

PubMed

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Measuring and modelling ecosystem productivity: a PhenoCam-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufkens, K.; Keenan, T. F.; Flanagan, L. B.; Richardson, A. D.

2015-12-01

Phenology controls feedbacks to the climate system through abiotic and biotic forces such as albedo or fluxes of water, energy and CO2. Understanding and modelling these vegetation-climate feedbacks is key to accurately predicting a future climate. For the past 6 years the PhenoCam network, a network of near-surface remote sensing cameras, has consistently monitored vegetation phenology in a wide range of ecoregions, climate zones, and plant functional types. Here we explore the tight coupling between canopy greenness and rates of photosynthesis using two studies. A first study highlights how PhenoCam data can be used to quantify the effect of a late spring frost event on ecosystem productivity, introducing a 7-14% loss in annual gross productivity across 8753 km2 in the northeastern United States. This case study emphasizes the use of the PhenoCam data in estimating productivity loss / the opportunity cost of ecosystem disturbance in areas not covered by ecosystem flux measurement equipment. In a more recent, second, study we developed a PhenoCam data-informed pulse-response model of grassland growth to explore potential responses of grasslands to future climate change across North America. Our findings projected widespread and consistent increase in grassland productivity (for the current range of grassland ecosystems of North American) over the coming century, despite a general increase in aridity projected across most of our study area. Once more PhenoCam data allowed us to inform our modelling efforts with data of a high temporal and spatial resolution. In conclusion, both studies illustrate direct applications of the ever growing PhenoCam network (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/) in scaling the effects of ecosystem disturbances, predicting future ecosystem productivity and underscore the complementary nature of PhenoCam data with ecosystem exchange measurements.

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

PubMed

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem.

PubMed

Cornwall, Christopher E; Eddy, Tyler D

2015-02-01

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Microclimate and ecological threshold responses in a warming and wetting experiment following whole-tree harvest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecosystem climate manipulation experiments (ECMEs) are a key tool for predicting the effects of climate on ecosystems. However, the strength of inferences drawn from these experiments depends on whether the manipulated conditions mimic future climate changes. While ECMEs have examined mean tempera...

Future riverine nitrogen export to US coastal regions: Prospects for improving water quality amid population growth.

EPA Science Inventory

Excess nitrogen (N) in the environment degrades ecosystems and adversely affects human health. Here we examine predictions of contemporary (2000) and future (2030) coastal N loading in the continental US by the Nutrient Export from WaterSheds (NEWS) model. Future scenarios were b...

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Donald McKenzie; Donald A. Falk; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Carol Miller; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2015-01-01

The prospect of rapidly changing climates over the next century calls for methods to predict their effects on myriad, interactive ecosystem processes. Spatially explicit models that simulate ecosystem dynamics at fine (plant, stand) to coarse (regional, global) scales are indispensable tools for meeting this challenge under a variety of possible futures. A special...

Unlocking the climate riddle in forested ecosystems

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; Sara A. Goeking

2012-01-01

Climate information is often used as a predictor in ecological studies, where temporal averages are typically based on climate normals (30-year means) or seasonal averages. While ensemble projections of future climate forecast a higher global average annual temperature, they also predict increased climate variability. It remains to be seen whether forest ecosystems...

Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

2017-12-01

The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure facilities to model simulation, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting.

Ecosystem studies in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean undertaken by the training vessel Umitaka-maru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moteki, Masato; Odate, Tsuneo; Hosie, Graham W.; Takahashi, Kunio T.; Swadling, Kerrie M.; Tanimura, Atsushi

2017-06-01

This special issue provides an overview of the ten voyages undertaken by the Umitaka-maru from the austral summers of 2002/2003 to 2014/2015 to promote the next phase of study of the ecosystems in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. The voyages by the Umitaka-maru have mainly targeted three areas in the Indian Ocean sector: off Dumont d'Urville Base (France, 140°E transect), off Casey Station (Australia, 110°E transect), and off Syowa Station (Japan, north of Lützow Holm Bay). The findings of Umitaka-maru's research on the krill-independent food web, animal assemblages, community structure and distribution patterns from the epipelagic to the deeper waters provide invaluable information for elucidating the material cycle and predicting future ecosystem changes. Further studies on assessing the influence of sea ice on food webs in the water column are required, which will provide crucial information for predicting ecosystem changes as a result of projected sea ice changes in the near future.

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages

PubMed Central

Yakob, Laith; Mumby, Peter J.

2011-01-01

Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change. PMID:21245326

Future riverine nitrogen export to US coastal regions: Prospects for improving water quality considering population growth

EPA Science Inventory

Excess nitrogen (N) in the environment degrades ecosystems and adversely affects human health. Here we examine predictions of contemporary (2000) and future (2030) coastal N loading in the continental US by the Nutrient Export from WaterSheds (NEWS) model. Future output is from s...

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

A linear regression model for predicting PNW estuarine temperatures in a changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

Pacific Northwest coastal regions, estuaries, and associated ecosystems are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, especially to changes in nearshore water temperature. While predictive climate models simulate future air temperatures, no such projections exist for...

Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.

PubMed

Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

2015-02-01

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sequencing the fungal tree of life

Treesearch

F. Martin; D. Cullen; D. Hibbett; A. Pisabarro; J.W. Spatafora; S.E. Baker; I.V. Grigoriev

2011-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems host a complex array of interacting communities, with thousands of species of animals, plants, fungi and bacteria. In soils, this complex web of life is responsible for the cycling of carbon (C), for water and nutrients, for soil quality and for plant nutrition and health. To predict future changes of these threatened ecosystems and to fully...

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

PubMed

Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

2017-06-01

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Community dynamics and ecosystem simplification in a high-CO2 ocean.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Gambi, Maria Cristina; Micheli, Fiorenza

2013-07-30

Disturbances are natural features of ecosystems that promote variability in the community and ultimately maintain diversity. Although it is recognized that global change will affect environmental disturbance regimes, our understanding of the community dynamics governing ecosystem recovery and the maintenance of functional diversity in future scenarios is very limited. Here, we use one of the few ecosystems naturally exposed to future scenarios of environmental change to examine disturbance and recovery dynamics. We examine the recovery patterns of marine species from a physical disturbance across different acidification regimes caused by volcanic CO2 vents. Plots of shallow rocky reef were cleared of all species in areas of ambient, low, and extreme low pH that correspond to near-future and extreme scenarios for ocean acidification. Our results illustrate how acidification decreases the variability of communities, resulting in homogenization and reduced functional diversity at a landscape scale. Whereas the recovery trajectories in ambient pH were highly variable and resulted in a diverse range of assemblages, recovery was more predictable with acidification and consistently resulted in very similar algal-dominated assemblages. Furthermore, low pH zones had fewer signs of biological disturbance (primarily sea urchin grazing) and increased recovery rates of the dominant taxa (primarily fleshy algae). Together, our results highlight how environmental change can cause ecosystem simplification via environmentally mediated changes in community dynamics in the near future, with cascading impacts on functional diversity and ecosystem function.

Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beyşehir.

PubMed

Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Tavşanoğlu, Ü Nihan; Çakıroğlu, A İdil; Özen, Arda; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

2018-04-15

Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and drinking water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Convergence of the effect of root hydraulic functioning and root hydraulic redistribution on ecosystem water and carbon balance across divergent forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

domec, J.; King, J. S.; Ogée, J.; Noormets, A.; Warren, J.; Meinzer, F. C.; Sun, G.; Jordan-Meille, L.; Martineau, E.; Brooks, R. J.; Laclau, J.; Battie Laclau, P.; McNulty, S.

2012-12-01

INVITED ABSTRACT: Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change on root-zone processes influencing HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from two old growth sites in the western USA, two mature sites in the eastern USA, one site in southern Brazil, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, our objectives were to show that HR can 1) mitigate the effects of soil drying on root functioning, and 2) have important implications for carbon uptake and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In a dry, old-growth ponderosa pine (USA) and a eucalyptus stand (Brazil) both characterized by deep sandy soils, HR limited the decline in root hydraulic conductivity and increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 30%, which impacted NEE through major increases in gross primary productivity (GPP). The presence of deep-rooted trees did not necessarily imply high rates of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case in the wet old-growth Douglas-fir/mixed conifer stand. At the Duke mixed hardwood forest characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, modeled HR was low but not negligible, representing annually up to 10% of T, and maintaining root conductance high. At this site, in the absence of HR, it was predicted that annual GPP would have been diminished by 7-19%. At the coastal loblolly pine plantation, characterized by deep organic soil, HR limited the decline in shallow root conductivity by more than 50% and increased dry season T by up to 40%, which increased net carbon gain by the ecosystem by about 400 gC m-2 yr-1, demonstrating the significance of HR in maintaining the stomatal conductance and assimilation capacity of the whole ecosystem. Under future climate conditions (elevated atmospheric [CO2] and temperature), HR is predicted to be reduced by up to 50%; reducing the resilience of trees to droughts. Under future conditions, T is predicted to stay the same at the Duke mixed hardwood forest, but to decline slightly at the coastal loblolly pine plantation and slightly increase at the old-growth ponderosa pine stand and the eucalyptus plantation. As a consequence, water use efficiency in all sites was predicted to improve dramatically under future climate conditions. Our simulations also showed that the negative effect of drier nights on HR would be greater under future climate conditions. Assuming no increase in stomatal control with increasing drier nights, increased vapor pressure deficit at night under future conditions was sufficient to drive significant nighttime T at all sites , which reduced HR, because the plant and the atmosphere became a sink for hydraulically redistributed water . We concluded that the predicted reductions in HR under future climate conditions are expected to play an important regulatory role in land-atmosphere interactions by affecting whole ecosystem carbon and water balance. We suggest that root distribution should be treated dynamically in response to climate change and that HR and its interactions with rooting depth and soil texture should be implemented in soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models.

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Predicting how ecosystems will be affected by climate change requires not only reliable forecasts of future climate, but also observationa...

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Dominance, biomass and extinction resistance determine the consequences of biodiversity loss for multiple coastal ecosystem processes.

PubMed

Davies, Thomas W; Jenkins, Stuart R; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J; Hiddink, Jan G

2011-01-01

Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1:1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent "worst case scenarios" because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a "best case scenario" that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future.

Dominance, Biomass and Extinction Resistance Determine the Consequences of Biodiversity Loss for Multiple Coastal Ecosystem Processes

PubMed Central

Davies, Thomas W.; Jenkins, Stuart R.; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J.; Hiddink, Jan G.

2011-01-01

Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1∶1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent “worst case scenarios” because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a “best case scenario” that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future. PMID:22163297

Humans, Topograpghy, and Wildland Fire: The Ingredients for Long-term Patterns in Ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography, and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These factors can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Humans, topography, and wildland fire: The ingredients for long-term patterns in ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography,and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These facters can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Landscape context and long-term tree influences shape the dynamics of forest-meadow ecotones in mountain ecosystems

Treesearch

R.E. Haugo; C.B. Halpern; J.D. Bakker

2011-01-01

Forest-meadow ecotones are prominent and dynamic features of mountain ecosystems. Understanding how vegetation changes are shaped by long-term interactions with trees and are mediated by the physical environment is critical to predicting future trends in biological diversity across these landscapes. We examined 26 yr of vegetation change (1983-2009) across 20 forest-...

Strong spatial variability in trace gas dynamics following experimental drought in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; W. L. Silver

2012-01-01

[1] Soil moisture is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems, strongly affecting carbon (C) and nutrient availability as well as trace gas production and consumption in soils. Models predict increasing drought frequency in tropical forest ecosystems, which could feed back on future climate change directly via effects on trace gasdynamics and...

Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

Treesearch

Steven E. Smith; Ma.G. Mendoza; Gerardo Zuniga; Kandres Kalbrook; J.L. Hayes; D.N. Byrne

2013-01-01

Understanding the distribution of key biotic elements of forest ecosystems is essential in contemporary forest management and in planning to meet future management needs. Habitat distribution (niche) models based on known occurrences provide geographical structure for such management as the environmental factors change....

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Researchers and natural resource managers need predictions of how multiple global changes (e.g., climate change, rising levels of air pollutants, exotic invasions) will affect landscape composition and ecosystem function. Ecological predictive models used for this purpose are constructed using either a mechanistic (process-based) or a phenomenological (empirical)...

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operationalizing Network Theory for Ecosystem Service Assessments.

PubMed

Dee, Laura E; Allesina, Stefano; Bonn, Aletta; Eklöf, Anna; Gaines, Steven D; Hines, Jes; Jacob, Ute; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Possingham, Hugh; Schröter, Matthias; Thompson, Ross M

2017-02-01

Managing ecosystems to provide ecosystem services in the face of global change is a pressing challenge for policy and science. Predicting how alternative management actions and changing future conditions will alter services is complicated by interactions among components in ecological and socioeconomic systems. Failure to understand those interactions can lead to detrimental outcomes from management decisions. Network theory that integrates ecological and socioeconomic systems may provide a path to meeting this challenge. While network theory offers promising approaches to examine ecosystem services, few studies have identified how to operationalize networks for managing and assessing diverse ecosystem services. We propose a framework for how to use networks to assess how drivers and management actions will directly and indirectly alter ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Heard, Matthew S; Isaac, Nick J B; Roy, David B; Procter, Deborah; Eigenbrod, Felix; Freckleton, Rob; Hector, Andy; Orme, C David L; Petchey, Owen L; Proença, Vânia; Raffaelli, David; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M; Martín-López, Berta; Woodcock, Ben A; Bullock, James M

2015-11-01

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their 'resilience') is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies.

PubMed

Perring, Michael P; De Frenne, Pieter; Baeten, Lander; Maes, Sybryn L; Depauw, Leen; Blondeel, Haben; Carón, María M; Verheyen, Kris

2016-04-01

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, Michael C.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Davidson, Carl; Desai, Ankur R.; Feng, Xiaohui; Kelly, Ryan; Kooper, Rob; LeBauer, David; Mantooth, Joshua; McHenry, Kenton; Wang, Dan

2014-03-01

Terrestrial biosphere models are designed to synthesize our current understanding of how ecosystems function, test competing hypotheses of ecosystem function against observations, and predict responses to novel conditions such as those expected under climate change. Reducing uncertainties in such models can improve both basic scientific understanding and our predictive capacity, but rarely are ecosystem models employed in the design of field campaigns. We provide a synthesis of carbon cycle uncertainty analyses conducted using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer ecoinformatics workflow with the Ecosystem Demography model v2. This work is a synthesis of multiple projects, using Bayesian data assimilation techniques to incorporate field data and trait databases across temperate forests, grasslands, agriculture, short rotation forestry, boreal forests, and tundra. We report on a number of data needs that span a wide array of diverse biomes, such as the need for better constraint on growth respiration, mortality, stomatal conductance, and water uptake. We also identify data needs that are biome specific, such as photosynthetic quantum efficiency at high latitudes. We recommend that future data collection efforts balance the bias of past measurements toward aboveground processes in temperate biomes with the sensitivities of different processes as represented by ecosystem models. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Effects of ice storm on forest ecosystem of southern China in 2008 Shaoqiang Wang1, Lei Zhou1, Weimin Ju2, Kun Huang1 1Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, 10010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaoqiang

2014-05-01

Evidence is mounting that an increase in extreme climate events has begun to occur worldwide during the recent decades, which affect biosphere function and biodiversity. Ecosystems returned to its original structures and functions to maintain its sustainability, which was closely dependent on ecosystem resilience. Understanding the resilience and recovery capacity of ecosystem to extreme climate events is essential to predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. Given the overwhelming importance of this region in the overall carbon cycle of forest ecosystems in China, south China suffered a destructive ice storm in 2008. In this study, we used the number of freezing day and a process-based model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS) to characterize the spatial distribution of ice storm region in southeastern China and explore the impacts on carbon cycle of forest ecosystem over the past decade. The ecosystem variables, i.e. Net primary productivity (NPP), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Water use efficiency (WUE, the ratio of NPP to ET) from the outputs of BEPS models were used to detect the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystem in southern China. The pattern of ice storm-induced forest productivity widespread decline was closely related to the number of freezing day during the ice storm period. The NPP of forest area suffered heavy ice storm returned to normal status after five months with high temperature and ample moisture, indicated a high resilience of subtropical forest in China. The long-term changes of forest WUE remain stable, behaving an inherent sensitivity of ecosystem to extreme climate events. In addition, ground visits suggested that the recovery of forest productivity was attributed to rapid growth of understory. Understanding the variability and recovery threshold of ecosystem following extreme climate events help us to better simulate and predict the variability of ecosystem structure and function under current and future climate change.

Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

Changes in the ecosystem structure of the Black Sea under predicted climatological and anthropogenic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris; Fach Salihoglu, Bettina; Libralato, Simone; Cannaby, Heather; Oguz, Temel; Solidoro, Cosimo

2014-05-01

A dynamic Ecopath with Ecosim higher-trophic-level (HTL) model representation of the Black Sea ecosystem was coupled to the physical (BIMS-CIR) and biogeochemical (BIMS-ECO) models of the Black Sea in order to investigate historical anthropogenic and climatological interactions and feedbacks in the ecosystem. Further, the coupled models were used to assess the likely consequences of these interactions on the ecosystem's structure and functioning under predicted future climate (IPCC A1B) and fishing variability. Therefore, two model scenarios were used; i) a hindcast scenario (1980-1999) to evaluate and understand the impacts of the short-term climate and physical variability and the introduction of invasive species on the Black Sea ecosystem, and ii) a forecast scenario (2080-2099) to investigate the potential implications of climate change and anthropogenic exploitation on living resources of the Black Sea ecosystem by the end of the 21st century. According to the outcomes of the hindcast simulation, fisheries were found to be the main driver in determining the structure and functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem under changing environmental conditions. The coupled physical-biogeochemical forecast simulations predicted a slight but statistically significant basin-wide increase in the Black Sea's primary productivity by the end of the century due to increased stratification induced by basin-wide temperature increase and reduced Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) formation which increased the residence time of riverine nutrients within the euphotic zone. Despite this increased primary productivity, the HTL model forecast simulation predicted a significant decrease in the commercial fish stocks primarily due to fisheries exploitation if current catch rates are maintained into the future. Results further suggested that some economically important small pelagic fish species are likely to disappear from the ecosystem making the recovery of the already-collapsed piscivorous fish stocks increasingly unlikely. In addition, a further reduction in the proportion of piscivorous fish in the fish community was found to be consequent. From a management perspective, the results of the study suggested that along with managing fishing exploitation levels of the target stocks, monitoring and management of other species in the ecosystem that are tightly coupled with the fish species in terms of food web interactions were found to be the most effective way of applying an ecosystem-based management strategy in the Black Sea. Such an approach will ensure the sustainable utilisation of the fish stocks of the Black Sea by maintaining the ecological integrity of the Black Sea marine food web.

Survey of Armillaria spp. in the Oregon East Cascades: Baseline data for predicting climatic influences on Armillaria root disease

Treesearch

J. W. Hanna; A. L. Smith; H. M. Maffei; M.-S. Kim; N. B. Klopfenstein

2008-01-01

Root disease pathogens, such as Armillaria solidipes Peck (recently recognized older name for A. ostoyae), will likely have increasing impacts to forest ecosystems as trees undergo stress due to climate change. Before we can predict future impacts of root disease pathogens, we must first develop an ability to predict current distributions of the pathogens (and their...

The future of predictive microbiology: strategic research, innovative applications and great expectations.

PubMed

McMeekin, Tom; Bowman, John; McQuestin, Olivia; Mellefont, Lyndal; Ross, Tom; Tamplin, Mark

2008-11-30

This paper considers the future of predictive microbiology by exploring the balance that exists between science, applications and expectations. Attention is drawn to the development of predictive microbiology as a sub-discipline of food microbiology and of technologies that are required for its applications, including a recently developed biological indicator. As we move into the era of systems biology, in which physiological and molecular information will be increasingly available for incorporation into models, predictive microbiologists will be faced with new experimental and data handling challenges. Overcoming these hurdles may be assisted by interacting with microbiologists and mathematicians developing models to describe the microbial role in ecosystems other than food. Coupled with a commitment to maintain strategic research, as well as to develop innovative technologies, the future of predictive microbiology looks set to fulfil "great expectations".

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

Treesearch

S. Sun; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen Mack; Steve McNulty; Peter Caldwell; K. Duan; Y. Zhang

2015-01-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)...

Ecosystem consequences of changing inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to lakes: current knowledge and future challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solomon, Christopher T.; Jones, Stuart E.; Weidel, Brian C.; Buffam, Ishi; Fork, Megan L; Karlsson, Jan; Larsen, Soren; Lennon, Jay T.; Read, Jordan S.; Sadro, Steven; Saros, Jasmine E.

2015-01-01

Lake ecosystems and the services that they provide to people are profoundly influenced by dissolved organic matter derived from terrestrial plant tissues. These terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) inputs to lakes have changed substantially in recent decades, and will likely continue to change. In this paper, we first briefly review the substantial literature describing tDOM effects on lakes and ongoing changes in tDOM inputs. We then identify and provide examples of four major challenges which limit predictions about the implications of tDOM change for lakes, as follows: First, it is currently difficult to forecast future tDOM inputs for particular lakes or lake regions. Second, tDOM influences ecosystems via complex, interacting, physical-chemical-biological effects and our holistic understanding of those effects is still rudimentary. Third, non-linearities and thresholds in relationships between tDOM inputs and ecosystem processes have not been well described. Fourth, much understanding of tDOM effects is built on comparative studies across space that may not capture likely responses through time. We conclude by identifying research approaches that may be important for overcoming those challenges in order to provide policy- and management-relevant predictions about the implications of changing tDOM inputs for lakes.

Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of greater sage-grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.

Benchmarking Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in the South Central US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kc, M.; Winton, K.; Langston, M. A.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem services and products are the foundation of sustainability for regional and global economy since we are directly or indirectly dependent on the ecosystem services like food, livestock, water, air, wildlife etc. It has been increasingly recognized that for sustainability concerns, the conservation problems need to be addressed in the context of entire ecosystems. This approach is even more vital in the 21st century with formidable increasing human population and rapid changes in global environment. This study was conducted to find the state of the science of ecosystem models in the South-Central region of US. The ecosystem models were benchmarked using ILAMB diagnostic package developed as a result of International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project on four main categories; viz, Ecosystem and Carbon Cycle, Hydrology Cycle, Radiation and Energy Cycle and Climate forcings. A cumulative assessment was generated with weighted seven different skill assessment metrics for the ecosystem models. This synthesis on the current state of the science of ecosystem modeling in the South-Central region of US will be highly useful towards coupling these models with climate, agronomic, hydrologic, economic or management models to better represent ecosystem dynamics as affected by climate change and human activities; and hence gain more reliable predictions of future ecosystem functions and service in the region. Better understandings of such processes will increase our ability to predict the ecosystem responses and feedbacks to environmental and human induced change in the region so that decision makers can make an informed management decisions of the ecosystem.

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Huang, M.; Xu, Y.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonarakis, A. S.; Bogan, S.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Climate change and the future of seed zones

Treesearch

Francis Kilkenny; Brad St. Clair; Matt Horning

2013-01-01

The use of native plants in wildland restoration is critical to the recovery and health of ecosystems. Information from genecological and reciprocal transplant common garden studies can be used to develop seed transfer guidelines and to predict how plants will respond to future climate change. Tools developed from these data, such as universal response functions and...

Biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems - Modeling, measurement, and remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, D. L.; Matson, P. A.; Lawless, J. G.; Aber, J. D.; Vitousek, P. M.

1985-01-01

The use of modeling, remote sensing, and measurements to characterize the pathways and to measure the rate of biogeochemical cycling in forest ecosystems is described. The application of the process-level model to predict processes in intact forests and ecosystems response to disturbance is examined. The selection of research areas from contrasting climate regimes and sites having a fertility gradient in that regime is discussed, and the sites studied are listed. The use of remote sensing in determining leaf area index and canopy biochemistry is analyzed. Nitrous oxide emission is investigated by using a gas measurement instrument. Future research projects, which include studying the influence of changes on nutrient cycling in ecosystems and the effect of pollutants on the ecosystems, are discussed.

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

2014-06-30

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Wolf, Adam; Arango-Velez, Adriana; Choat, Brendan; Chmura, Daniel J; Jansen, Steven; Kolb, Thomas; Li, Shan; Meinzer, Frederick; Pita, Pilar; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sperry, John S; Wolfe, Brett T; Pacala, Stephen

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

Catastrophic impact of typhoon waves on coral communities in the Ryukyu Islands under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hongo, Chuki; Kawamata, Hideki; Goto, Kazuhisa

2012-06-01

Typhoon-generated storm waves generally cause mechanical damage to coral communities on present-day reefs, and the magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase in the near future as a result of global warming. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios of reef ecosystems is of prime interest. This study assesses the current status of coral communities on Ibaruma reef, Ryukyu Islands, on the basis of field observations, engineering and fluid dynamic models, and calculations of wave motion, and predicts the potential effects of a super-extreme typhoon (incident wave height,H = 20 m; wave period, T = 20 s) on the reef. On the present-day reef, massive corals occur in shallow lagoons and tabular corals occur from the reef crest to the reef slope. The observed distribution of corals, which is frequently attacked by moderate (H = 10 m, T = 10 s) and extreme (H = 10 m, T = 15 s) typhoons, is consistent with the predictions of engineering models. Moreover, this study indicates that if a super-extreme typhoon attacks the reef in the near future, massive corals will survive in the shallow lagoons but tabular corals on the reef crest and reef slope will be severely impacted. The findings imply that super-extreme typhoons will cause a loss of species diversity, as the tabular corals are important reef builders and are critical to the maintenance of reef ecosystems. Consequently, reef restoration is a key approach to maintaining reef ecosystems in the wake of super-extreme typhoons.

Lake Michigan offshore ecosystem structure and food web changes from 1987 to 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems undergo dynamic changes owing to species invasions, fisheries management decisions, landscape modifications, and nutrient inputs. At Lake Michigan, new invaders (e.g., dreissenid mussels (Dreissena spp.), spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), round goby (Neogobius melanostomus)) have proliferated and altered energy transfer pathways, while nutrient concentrations and stocking rates to support fisheries have changed. We developed an ecosystem model to describe food web structure in 1987 and ran simulations through 2008 to evaluate changes in biomass of functional groups, predator consumption, and effects of recently invading species. Keystone functional groups from 1987 were identified as Mysis, burbot (Lota lota), phytoplankton, alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), nonpredatory cladocerans, and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Simulations predicted biomass reductions across all trophic levels and predicted biomasses fit observed trends for most functional groups. The effects of invasive species (e.g., dreissenid grazing) increased across simulation years, but were difficult to disentangle from other changes (e.g., declining offshore nutrient concentrations). In total, our model effectively represented recent changes to the Lake Michigan ecosystem and provides an ecosystem-based tool for exploring future resource management scenarios.

Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.

PubMed

Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Balslev, Henrik; Dransfield, John; Normand, Signe; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-07-27

Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.

Forest landscape mosaics: Disturbance, restoration, and management at times of global change

Treesearch

Kalev Jogiste; Bengt Gunnar Jonsson; Timo Kuuluvainen; Sylvie Gauthier; W. Keith Moser

2015-01-01

Potential effects of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of development in terms of both people and the rest of the environment. Land use change at the global scale presents many challenges for the research community. Past land use has a definite effect on future ecosystems, but it is challenging to predict future...

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Salice, Chris J; Birnir, Bjorn; Bruins, Randy J F; Calow, Peter; Ducrot, Virginie; Galic, Nika; Garber, Kristina; Harvey, Bret C; Jager, Henriette; Kanarek, Andrew; Pastorok, Robert; Railsback, Steve F; Rebarber, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

2017-04-01

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:845-859. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.

2012-01-01

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317

Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests.

PubMed

Selmants, Paul C; Litton, Creighton M; Giardina, Christian P; Asner, Gregory P

2014-09-01

Theory and experiment agree that climate warming will increase carbon fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The effect of this increased exchange on terrestrial carbon storage is less predictable, with important implications for potential feedbacks to the climate system. We quantified how increased mean annual temperature (MAT) affects ecosystem carbon storage in above- and belowground live biomass and detritus across a well-constrained 5.2 °C MAT gradient in tropical montane wet forests on the Island of Hawaii. This gradient does not systematically vary in biotic or abiotic factors other than MAT (i.e. dominant vegetation, substrate type and age, soil water balance, and disturbance history), allowing us to isolate the impact of MAT on ecosystem carbon storage. Live biomass carbon did not vary predictably as a function of MAT, while detrital carbon declined by ~14 Mg of carbon ha(-1) for each 1 °C rise in temperature - a trend driven entirely by coarse woody debris and litter. The largest detrital pool, soil organic carbon, was the most stable with MAT and averaged 48% of total ecosystem carbon across the MAT gradient. Total ecosystem carbon did not vary significantly with MAT, and the distribution of ecosystem carbon between live biomass and detritus remained relatively constant across the MAT gradient at ~44% and ~56%, respectively. These findings suggest that in the absence of alterations to precipitation or disturbance regimes, the size and distribution of carbon pools in tropical montane wet forests will be less sensitive to rising MAT than predicted by ecosystem models. This article also provides needed detail on how individual carbon pools and ecosystem-level carbon storage will respond to future warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, D. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Wardle, D. A.

2011-03-01

Understanding the impacts of plant community characteristics on soil carbon dioxide efflux (R) is a key prerequisite for accurate prediction of the future carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. In this review, we synthesize relevant information from a wide spectrum of sources to evaluate the current state of knowledge about plant community effects on R, examine how this information is incorporated into global climate models, and highlight priorities for future research. Plant species consistently exhibit cohesive suites of traits, linked to contrasting life history strategies, which exert a variety of impacts on R. As such, we propose that plant community shifts towards dominance by fast growing plants with nutrient rich litter could provide a major, though often neglected, positive feedback to climate change. Within vegetation types, belowground carbon flux will mainly be controlled by photosynthesis, while amongst vegetation types this flux will be more dependent upon the specific characteristics of the plant life form. We also make the case that community composition, rather than diversity, is usually the dominant control on ecosystem processes in natural systems. Individual species impacts on R may be largest where the species accounts for most of the biomass in the ecosystem, has very distinct traits to the rest of the community, or modulates the occurrence of major natural disturbances. We show that climate-vegetation models incorporate a number of pathways whereby plants can affect R, but that simplifications regarding allocation schemes and drivers of litter decomposition may limit model accuracy. This situation could, however, be relatively easily improved with targeted experimental and field studies. Finally, we identify key gaps in knowledge and recommend them as priorities for future work. These include the patterns of photosynthate partitioning amongst belowground components, ecosystem level effects of individual plant traits, and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting feedbacks to R across terrestrial ecosystems and the earth-climate system.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Biodiversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and ecosystem function.

PubMed

Powell, Jeff R; Rillig, Matthias C

2018-03-30

Contents Summary I. pathways of influence and pervasiveness of effects II. AM fungal richness effects on ecosystem functions III. Other dimensions of biodiversity IV. Back to basics - primary axes of niche differentiation by AM fungi V. Functional diversity of AM fungi - a role for biological stoichiometry? VI. Past, novel and future ecosystems VII. Opportunities and the way forward Acknowledgements References SUMMARY: Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi play important functional roles in ecosystems, including the uptake and transfer of nutrients, modification of the physical soil environment and alteration of plant interactions with other biota. Several studies have demonstrated the potential for variation in AM fungal diversity to also affect ecosystem functioning, mainly via effects on primary productivity. Diversity in these studies is usually characterized in terms of the number of species, unique evolutionary lineages or complementary mycorrhizal traits, as well as the ability of plants to discriminate among AM fungi in space and time. However, the emergent outcomes of these relationships are usually indirect, and thus context dependent, and difficult to predict with certainty. Here, we advocate a fungal-centric view of AM fungal biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships that focuses on the direct and specific links between AM fungal fitness and consequences for their roles in ecosystems, especially highlighting functional diversity in hyphal resource economics. We conclude by arguing that an understanding of AM fungal functional diversity is fundamental to determine whether AM fungi have a role in the exploitation of marginal/novel environments (whether past, present or future) and highlight avenues for future research. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Drivers of spatial heterogeneity in nitrogen processing among three alpine plant communities in the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churchill, A. C.; Beers, A.; Grinath, J.; Bowman, W. D.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen cycling across the globe has been fundamentally altered due to regional elevated N deposition and there is a cascade of ecosystem consequences including shifts in species composition, eutrophication, and soil acidification. Making predictions that encompass the factors that drive these ecosystem changes has frequently been limited to single ecosystem types, or areas with fairly homogenous abiotic conditions. The alpine is an ecosystem type that exhibits changes under relatively low levels of N depositions due to short growing seasons and shallow soils limiting N storage. While recent work provided estimates for the magnitude of N associated with ecosystem changes, less is known about the within-site factors that may interact to stabilize or amplify the differential response of N pools under future conditions of resource deposition. To examine numerous potential within-site and regional factors (both biotic and abiotic) affecting ecosystem N pools we examined the relationship between those factors and a suite of ecosystem pools of N followed by model selection procedures and structural equation modelling. Measurements were conducted at Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site and in Rocky Mountain National Park in three distinct alpine meadow ecosystems (dry, moist, and wet meadows). These meadows span a moisture gradient as well as plant community composition, thereby providing high variability of potential biotic and abiotic drivers across small spatial scales in the alpine. In general, regional scale abiotic factors such as site levels of annual average N deposition or precipitation were poor predictors of seasonal pools of N, while spring soil water pools of N were negatively correlated with elevation. Models containing multiple abiotic and biotic drivers, however, were best at predicting soil and plant pools of N across the two sites. Future analysis will include highlight interactions among with-site factors affecting N pools in the alpine using structural equation modelling to statistically examine the bidirectional relationship between plant communities and soil pools of N.

Sources of Uncertainty in Predicting Land Surface Fluxes Using Diverse Data and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dungan, Jennifer L.; Wang, Weile; Michaelis, Andrew; Votava, Petr; Nemani, Ramakrishma

2010-01-01

In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models are used to bring data from large observation networks and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions about present and future states of the Earth. Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is a complex process and one that is not yet fully understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization, measurement and interpolation of input variables; model parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble of different models and examining the distribution of model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data and land surface characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have explored the uncertainty arising from the application of models with different assumptions, structures, parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number of models, this only begins to capture the range of possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts have been made to systematically address the components of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the characterization of uncertainty for this approach including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.

Evidence of Microbial Regulation of Biogeochemical Cycles from a Study on Methane Flux and Land Use Change

PubMed Central

Nazaries, Loïc; Pan, Yao; Bodrossy, Levente; Baggs, Elizabeth M.; Millard, Peter; Murrell, J. Colin

2013-01-01

Microbes play an essential role in ecosystem functions, including carrying out biogeochemical cycles, but are currently considered a black box in predictive models and all global biodiversity debates. This is due to (i) perceived temporal and spatial variations in microbial communities and (ii) lack of ecological theory explaining how microbes regulate ecosystem functions. Providing evidence of the microbial regulation of biogeochemical cycles is key for predicting ecosystem functions, including greenhouse gas fluxes, under current and future climate scenarios. Using functional measures, stable-isotope probing, and molecular methods, we show that microbial (community diversity and function) response to land use change is stable over time. We investigated the change in net methane flux and associated microbial communities due to afforestation of bog, grassland, and moorland. Afforestation resulted in the stable and consistent enhancement in sink of atmospheric methane at all sites. This change in function was linked to a niche-specific separation of microbial communities (methanotrophs). The results suggest that ecological theories developed for macroecology may explain the microbial regulation of the methane cycle. Our findings provide support for the explicit consideration of microbial data in ecosystem/climate models to improve predictions of biogeochemical cycles. PMID:23624469

NEW BIOGENIC VOC EMISSIONS MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We intend to develop new prognostic models for the prediction of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from forest ecosystems in the face of possible future changes in the climate and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These models will b...

Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

1994-12-31

The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Twomore » refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.« less

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

PubMed

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes

PubMed Central

Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change. PMID:28859097

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes.

PubMed

Crotty, Sinead M; Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Terando, Adam J.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management

Treesearch

S.W. Golladay; K.L. Martin; J. M. Vose; D. N. Wear; A.P. Covich; R.J. Hobbs; Kier Klepzig; G.E. Likens; R.J. Naiman; A.W. Shearer

2016-01-01

We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations....

In praise of mechanistically-rich models

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.; Canham, Charles D.; Cole, Jonathan J.; Lauenroth, William K.

2003-01-01

The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.

2018-04-10

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration.

PubMed

Stegen, James C

2018-01-01

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modeling frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. We can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.

Ecological Forecasting in the Applied Sciences Program and Input to the Decadal Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, Joseph

2015-01-01

Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors. Further, Ecological Forecasting employs observations and models to predict the effects of environmental change on ecosystems. In doing so, it applies information from the physical, biological, and social sciences and promotes a scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. The goal is reliable forecasts that allow decision makers access to science-based tools in order to project changes in living systems. The next decadal survey will direct the development Earth Observation sensors and satellites for the next ten years. It is important that these new sensors and satellites address the requirements for ecosystem models, imagery, and other data for resource management. This presentation will give examples of these model inputs and some resources needed for NASA to continue effective Ecological Forecasting.

Marine biodiversity–ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures

PubMed Central

Bulling, Mark T.; Hicks, Natalie; Murray, Leigh; Paterson, David M.; Raffaelli, Dave; White, Piran C. L.; Solan, Martin

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH4-N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO4-P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty. PMID:20513718

Marine biodiversity-ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures.

PubMed

Bulling, Mark T; Hicks, Natalie; Murray, Leigh; Paterson, David M; Raffaelli, Dave; White, Piran C L; Solan, Martin

2010-07-12

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH(4)-N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO(4)-P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Tree diversity does not always improve resistance of forest ecosystems to drought.

PubMed

Grossiord, Charlotte; Granier, André; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Bouriaud, Olivier; Bruelheide, Helge; Chećko, Ewa; Forrester, David Ian; Dawud, Seid Muhie; Finér, Leena; Pollastrini, Martina; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Valladares, Fernando; Bonal, Damien; Gessler, Arthur

2014-10-14

Climate models predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of drought episodes in the Northern Hemisphere. Among terrestrial ecosystems, forests will be profoundly impacted by drier climatic conditions, with drastic consequences for the functions and services they supply. Simultaneously, biodiversity is known to support a wide range of forest ecosystem functions and services. However, whether biodiversity also improves the resistance of these ecosystems to drought remains unclear. We compared soil drought exposure levels in a total of 160 forest stands within five major forest types across Europe along a gradient of tree species diversity. We assessed soil drought exposure in each forest stand by calculating the stand-level increase in carbon isotope composition of late wood from a wet to a dry year (Δδ(13)CS). Δδ(13)CS exhibited a negative linear relationship with tree species diversity in two forest types, suggesting that species interactions in these forests diminished the drought exposure of the ecosystem. However, the other three forest types were unaffected by tree species diversity. We conclude that higher diversity enhances resistance to drought events only in drought-prone environments. Managing forest ecosystems for high tree species diversity does not necessarily assure improved adaptability to the more severe and frequent drought events predicted for the future.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. The framework introduced here represents an ongoing initiative supported by the National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS; http://www.nimbi

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

What Went Wrong, If Anything, Since Copernicus?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boulding, Kenneth E.

1974-01-01

Discusses the history of the inequality of world incomes on the basis of a four-fold classification of societies. Indicates that a zero-growth, industrial, ontological, non-destructive society is predictable in the future due to man's expansion from isolated ecosystems into one single world. (CC)

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed Central

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Need to Assess the Skill of Ecosystem Models Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. Northeast US Atlantis Marine Ecosystem Model We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. Skill Assessment Is Both Possible and Advisable We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment). PMID:26731540

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of an Alpine Tundra in the Southern Rocky Mountains to Climate Change by 2100: Projections of Water, Carbon, and Nitrogen Cycling under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical cycling of water, carbon, and nitrogen in alpine tundra ecosystems are closely related to the water and nutrient supply and ecosystem function of watersheds. While studies on the response of alpine tundra to climate change have largely focused on ecosystem structure, research on response of ecosystem function and element cycling are less well established. Using downscaled future climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and revised algorithm of the ecosystem model, PnET-BGC, we investigated water, carbon, and nitrogen cycling of an alpine tundra ecosystem under different projections of future climate change at Saddle site of Niwot Ridge, Colorado. Simulations from this study suggest that future water supply from the alpine tundra was well predicted by the Budyko curve, which contrasts with findings from several previous studies. Although foliar display is projected to decrease due to summer water stress, an extend growing season and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations reverse its effects on carbon fixation by allowing longer period of photosynthesis and greater photosynthetic rate per leaf area. As a result of the increasing carbon sequestration, large increases in carbon storage are projected in living and dead biomass. Decomposition of soil organic carbon and mineralization of soil organic nitrogen increase with temperature and soil moisture, but also related to the period of snow cover which likely enhances microbial activity and associated soil decomposition and N immobilization. Future increase in winter precipitation leads to increasing snow water content which increases spring soil moisture and decomposition. Shorter future snow cover period and decreased summer soil moisture caused lower decomposition in both seasons, therefore negligible long-term pattern is projected. Future net N mineralization generally followed the pattern of organic carbon decomposition, but slightly increased because of decreasing winter immobilization due to projected shorter snow cover period. Nitrogen uptake is projected to be higher under radiative forcing scenarios of higher primary production and greater net N mineralization.

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: The basin and range, American Southwest and Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, N. B.; Chacon, A.; Dahm, Clifford N.; Hostetler, S.W.; Lind, O.T.; Starkweather, P.L.; Wurtsbaugh, W.W.

1997-01-01

Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Whole-ecosystem experimental manipulations of tropical forests.

PubMed

Fayle, Tom M; Turner, Edgar C; Basset, Yves; Ewers, Robert M; Reynolds, Glen; Novotny, Vojtech

2015-06-01

Tropical forests are highly diverse systems involving extraordinary numbers of interactions between species, with each species responding in a different way to the abiotic environment. Understanding how these systems function and predicting how they respond to anthropogenic global change is extremely challenging. We argue for the necessity of 'whole-ecosystem' experimental manipulations, in which the entire ecosystem is targeted, either to reveal the functioning of the system in its natural state or to understand responses to anthropogenic impacts. We survey the current range of whole-ecosystem manipulations, which include those targeting weather and climate, nutrients, biotic interactions, human impacts, and habitat restoration. Finally we describe the unique challenges and opportunities presented by such projects and suggest directions for future experiments. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai; ...

2016-07-14

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrub and grass patches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying the response of soil respiration to past environmental conditions is critical for predicting how future climate and vegetation change will impact ecosystem carbon balance. Increased shrub dominance in semiarid grasslands has potentially large effects on soil carbon cycling. The goal of t...

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE PAGES

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; ...

2017-02-03

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; Hulshof, Catherine; Medvigy, David; Pizano, Camila; Salgado-Negret, Beatriz; Smith, Christina M.; Trierweiler, Annette; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Waring, Bonnie G.; Xu, Xiangtao; Powers, Jennifer S.

2017-02-01

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 14. Research needed to determine the present carbon balance of northern ecosystems and the potential effect of carbon-dioxide-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, P.C.

1982-10-01

Given the potential significance of northern ecosystems to the global carbon budget it is critical to estimate the current carbon balance of these ecosystems as precisely as possible, to improve estimates of the future carbon balance if world climates change, and to assess the range of certainty associated with these estimates. As a first step toward quantifying some of the potential changes, a workshop with tundra and taiga ecologists and soil scientists was held in San Diego in March 1980. The first part of this report summarizes the conclusions of this workshop with regard to the estimate of the currentmore » areal extent and carbon content of the circumpolar arctic and the taiga, current rates of carbon accumulation in the peat in the arctic and the taiga, and predicted future carbon accumulation rates based on the present understanding of controlling processes and on the understanding of past climates and vegetation. This report presents a finer resolution of areal extents, standing crops, and production rates than was possible previously because of recent syntheses of data from the International Biological Program and current studies in the northern ecosystems, some of which have not yet been published. This recent information changes most of the earlier estimates of carbon content and affects predictions of the effect of climate change. The second part of this report outlines research needed to fill major gaps in the understanding of the role of northern ecosystems in global climate change.« less

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in long-term time series and palaeoecological records: deep sea as a test bed.

PubMed

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Doi, Hideyuki; Wei, Chih-Lin; Danovaro, Roberto; Myhre, Sarah E

2016-05-19

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) over long temporal scales is poorly understood. Here, we investigate biological monitoring and palaeoecological records on decadal, centennial and millennial time scales from a BEF framework by using deep sea, soft-sediment environments as a test bed. Results generally show positive BEF relationships, in agreement with BEF studies based on present-day spatial analyses and short-term manipulative experiments. However, the deep-sea BEF relationship is much noisier across longer time scales compared with modern observational studies. We also demonstrate with palaeoecological time-series data that a larger species pool does not enhance ecosystem stability through time, whereas higher abundance as an indicator of higher ecosystem functioning may enhance ecosystem stability. These results suggest that BEF relationships are potentially time scale-dependent. Environmental impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning may be much stronger than biodiversity impacts on ecosystem functioning at long, decadal-millennial, time scales. Longer time scale perspectives, including palaeoecological and ecosystem monitoring data, are critical for predicting future BEF relationships on a rapidly changing planet. © 2016 The Author(s).

Recent drought effects on ecosystem carbon uptake in California ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Guan, K.; Brodrick, P. G.; Berry, J. A.; Asner, G. P.

2016-12-01

California is one of the Earth's most biodiverse places and most of California has experienced an extreme (millennium scale) drought in the period of 2012-2015. Although the effect of the drought on the water resources have been well studied, the responses of ecosystems has not been explored in this detail. This study used advanced remotely sensed data (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices and solar-induced fluorescence), an ecosystem model, and model-data fusion techniques to study the impacts of the severe drought on ecosystem carbon uptakes in California. We have found that: (1) the drought has significantly suppressed carbon uptake and light use efficiency in California ecosystems - except in the semi-deserts, and the moist forests in the northern coast; (2) effects on the photosynthetic capacity of the ecosystems extends after the drought is relieved; and (3) the drought has shifted both the timing and magnitude of the seasonality of the carbon uptake in non-forested regions. These findings provide a better understanding of the impacts of droughts, and provide an improved basis for prediction of ecosystem responses under a more extreme climate in the future.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Potential of Cognitive Computing and Cognitive Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

2015-01-01

Cognitive computing and cognitive technologies are game changers for future engineering systems, as well as for engineering practice and training. They are major drivers for knowledge automation work, and the creation of cognitive products with higher levels of intelligence than current smart products. This paper gives a brief review of cognitive computing and some of the cognitive engineering systems activities. The potential of cognitive technologies is outlined, along with a brief description of future cognitive environments, incorporating cognitive assistants - specialized proactive intelligent software agents designed to follow and interact with humans and other cognitive assistants across the environments. The cognitive assistants engage, individually or collectively, with humans through a combination of adaptive multimodal interfaces, and advanced visualization and navigation techniques. The realization of future cognitive environments requires the development of a cognitive innovation ecosystem for the engineering workforce. The continuously expanding major components of the ecosystem include integrated knowledge discovery and exploitation facilities (incorporating predictive and prescriptive big data analytics); novel cognitive modeling and visual simulation facilities; cognitive multimodal interfaces; and cognitive mobile and wearable devices. The ecosystem will provide timely, engaging, personalized / collaborative, learning and effective decision making. It will stimulate creativity and innovation, and prepare the participants to work in future cognitive enterprises and develop new cognitive products of increasing complexity. http://www.aee.odu.edu/cognitivecomp

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

1997-01-01

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Environmental drivers of deadwood dynamics in woodlands and forests

Treesearch

M. Garbarino; R. Marzano; John Shaw; J. N. Long

2015-01-01

Deadwood dynamics play a key role in many forest ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms involved in the accumulation and depletion of deadwood can enhance our understanding of fundamental processes such as carbon sequestration and disturbance regimes, allowing better predictions of future changes related to alternative management and climate scenarios. A...

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Treesearch

Chuixiang Yi; Daniel Ricciuto; Runze Li; John Wolbeck; Xiyan Xu; Mats Nilsson; John Frank; William J. Massman

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes...

Responses of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Michelle; Hamilton, Trevor J.; Eom, Junho; Lyall, Emily M.; Gallup, Joshua; Jiang, Amy; Lee, Jason; Close, David A.; Yun, Sang-Seon; Brauner, Colin J.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification negatively affects many marine species and is predicted to cause widespread changes to marine ecosystems. Similarly, freshwater ecosystems may potentially be affected by climate-change-related acidification; however, this has received far less attention. Freshwater fish represent 40% of all fishes, and salmon, which rear and spawn in freshwater, are of immense ecosystem, economical and cultural importance. In this study, we investigate the impacts of CO2-induced acidification during the development of pink salmon, in freshwater and following early seawater entry. At this critical and sensitive life stage, we show dose-dependent reductions in growth, yolk-to-tissue conversion and maximal O2 uptake capacity; as well as significant alterations in olfactory responses, anti-predator behaviour and anxiety under projected future increases in CO2 levels. These data indicate that future populations of pink salmon may be at risk without mitigation and highlight the need for further studies on the impact of CO2-induced acidification on freshwater systems.

The impact of warming on greenhouse gas fluxes: an experimental comparison which reveals the varied response of ecosystems to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockdale, James; Ineson, Philip

2016-04-01

Modelled predictions of the response of terrestrial systems to climate change are highly variable, yet the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is a vital ecosystem behaviour to understand due to its inherent feedback to the carbon cycle. The establishment and subsequent monitoring of replicated experimental manipulations are a direct method to reveal these responses, yet are difficult to achieve as they typically resource-heavy and labour intensive. We actively manipulated the temperature at three agricultural grasslands in southern England and deployed novel 'SkyLine' systems, recently developed at the University of York, to continuously monitor GHG fluxes. Each 'SkyLine' is a low-cost and fully autonomous technology yet produces fluxes at a near-continuous temporal frequency and across a wide spatial area. The results produced by 'SkyLine' enable the detail response of each system to increased temperature over diurnal and seasonal timescales. Unexpected differences in NEE are shown between superficially similar ecosystems which, upon investigation, suggest that interactions between a variety of environmental variables are key and that knowledge of pre-existing environmental conditions help to predict a systems response to future climate. For example, the prevailing hydrological conditions at each site appear to affect its response to changing temperature. The high-frequency data shown here, combined with the fully-replicated experimental design reveal complex interactions which must be understood to improve predictions of ecosystem response to a changing climate.

Biodiversity in a complex world: consolidation and progress in functional biodiversity research.

PubMed

Hillebrand, Helmut; Matthiessen, Birte

2009-12-01

The global decline of biodiversity caused by human domination of ecosystems worldwide is supposed to alter important process rates and state variables in these ecosystems. However, there is considerable debate on the prevalence and importance of biodiversity effects on ecosystem function (BDEF). Here, we argue that much of the debate stems from two major shortcomings. First, most studies do not directly link the traits leading to increased or decreased function to the traits needed for species coexistence and dominance. We argue that implementing a trait-based approach and broadening the perception of diversity to include trait dissimilarity or trait divergence will result in more realistic predictions on the consequences of altered biodiversity. Second, the empirical and theoretical studies do not reflect the complexity of natural ecosystems, which makes it difficult to transfer the results to natural situations of species loss. We review how different aspects of complexity (trophic structure, multifunctionality, spatial or temporal heterogeneity, and spatial population dynamics) alter our perception of BDEF. We propose future research avenues concisely testing whether acknowledging this complexity will strengthen the observed biodiversity effects. Finally, we propose that a major future task is to disentangle biodiversity effects on ecosystem function from direct changes in function due to human alterations of abiotic constraints.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Understanding the structure and functioning of polar pelagic ecosystems to predict the impacts of change

PubMed Central

Drinkwater, K. F.; Grant, S. M.; Heymans, J. J.; Hofmann, E. E.; Hunt, G. L.; Johnston, N. M.

2016-01-01

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by a small number of species, alternative routes are important for maintaining energy transfer and resilience. These more complex routes cannot, however, provide the same rate of energy flow to highest trophic-level species. Food-web structure may be similar in different regions, but the individual species that dominate mid-trophic levels vary across polar regions. The characteristics (traits) of these species are also different and these differences influence a range of food-web processes. Low functional redundancy at key trophic levels makes these ecosystems particularly sensitive to change. To develop models for projecting responses of polar ecosystems to future environmental change, we propose a conceptual framework that links the life histories of pelagic species and the structure of polar food webs. PMID:27928038

Understanding the structure and functioning of polar pelagic ecosystems to predict the impacts of change.

PubMed

Murphy, E J; Cavanagh, R D; Drinkwater, K F; Grant, S M; Heymans, J J; Hofmann, E E; Hunt, G L; Johnston, N M

2016-12-14

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by a small number of species, alternative routes are important for maintaining energy transfer and resilience. These more complex routes cannot, however, provide the same rate of energy flow to highest trophic-level species. Food-web structure may be similar in different regions, but the individual species that dominate mid-trophic levels vary across polar regions. The characteristics (traits) of these species are also different and these differences influence a range of food-web processes. Low functional redundancy at key trophic levels makes these ecosystems particularly sensitive to change. To develop models for projecting responses of polar ecosystems to future environmental change, we propose a conceptual framework that links the life histories of pelagic species and the structure of polar food webs. © 2016 The Authors.

Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-02-06

Modeled terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute substantial uncertainty to projections of future climate. The limitations of current observing networks contribute to this uncertainty. Here we present a current climatology of global model predictions and observations for photosynthesis, biomass, plant diversity and plant functional diversity. Carbon cycle tipping points occur in terrestrial regions where fluxes or stocks are largest, and where biological variability is highest, the tropics and Arctic/Boreal zones. Global observations are predominately in the mid-latitudes and are sparse in high and low latitude ecosystems. Observing and forecasting ecosystem change requires sustained observations of sufficient density in timemore » and space in critical regions. Using data and theory available now, we can develop a strategy to detect and forecast terrestrial carbon cycle-climate interactions, by combining in situ and remote techniques.« less

Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.

PubMed

Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

2013-06-01

Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.

Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead

PubMed Central

Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

2013-01-01

Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Lacida, Ricardo Bermejo; Engelen, Aschwin H; Serrão, Ester A; Airoldi, Laura

2018-07-01

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Changes in Arctic Tundra Vegetation: Towards an Understanding of Plant Trait Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Serbin, S.; Carman, T.; Iversen, C. M.; Salmon, V.; Helene, G.; McGuire, A. D.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra plant communities are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in both composition and distribution under a warming climate. Predicting how these dynamics may play out in the future is important since these vegetation shifts impact both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. More precise estimates of these future vegetation shifts is a key challenge due to both a scarcity of data with which to parameterize vegetation models, particularly in the Arctic, as well as a limited understanding of the importance of each of the model parameters and how they may vary over space and time. Here, we incorporate newly available field data from arctic Alaska into a dynamic vegetation model specifically developed to take into account a particularly wide array of plant species as well as the permafrost soils of the arctic tundra (the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with Dynamic Vegetation and Dynamic Organic Soil, Terrestrial Ecosystem Model; DVM-DOS-TEM). We integrate the model within the Predicative Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), an open-source integrated ecological bioinformatics toolbox that facilitates the flows of information into and out of process models and model-data integration. We use PEcAn to evaluate the plant functional traits that contribute most to model variability based on a sensitivity analysis. We perform this analysis for the dominant types of tundra in arctic Alaska, including heath, shrub, tussock and wet sedge tundra. The results from this analysis will help inform future data collection in arctic tundra and reduce model uncertainty, thereby improving our ability to simulate Arctic vegetation structure and function in response to global change.

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2012-12-01

Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

PubMed Central

Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

PubMed

Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Hall, Edward K.

2012-01-01

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Nitrogen deposition and greenhouse gas emissions from grasslands: uncertainties and future directions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Ndep) can strongly affect the greenhouse gas (GHG; CO2, CH4 and N2O) sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. Grasslands play an important role in determining the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. Robust predictions of the net GHG sink strength of...

Modeling forest ecosystem responses to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Larsen, Peter E; Cseke, Leland J; Miller, R Michael; Collart, Frank R

2014-10-21

Rising atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and ozone will impact productivity and carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. The scale of this process and the potential economic consequences provide an incentive for the development of models to predict the types and rates of ecosystem responses and feedbacks that result from and influence of climate change. In this paper, we use phenotypic and molecular data derived from the Aspen Free Air CO2 Enrichment site (Aspen-FACE) to evaluate modeling approaches for ecosystem responses to changing conditions. At FACE, it was observed that different aspen clones exhibit clone-specific responses to elevated atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and ozone. To identify the molecular basis for these observations, we used artificial neural networks (ANN) to examine above and below-ground community phenotype responses to elevated carbon dioxide, elevated ozone and gene expression profiles. The aspen community models generated using this approach identified specific genes and subnetworks of genes associated with variable sensitivities for aspen clones. The ANN model also predicts specific co-regulated gene clusters associated with differential sensitivity to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone in aspen species. The results suggest ANN is an effective approach to predict relevant gene expression changes resulting from environmental perturbation and provides useful information for the rational design of future biological experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity

PubMed Central

Craine, Joseph M.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Skibbe, Adam M.; Hutchinson, Stacy L.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

2012-01-01

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing. PMID:22331914

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, D. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Wardle, D. A.

2011-08-01

Understanding the impacts of plant community characteristics on soil carbon dioxide efflux (R) is a key prerequisite for accurate prediction of the future carbon (C) balance of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. However, developing a mechanistic understanding of the determinants of R is complicated by the presence of multiple different sources of respiratory C within soil - such as soil microbes, plant roots and their mycorrhizal symbionts - each with their distinct dynamics and drivers. In this review, we synthesize relevant information from a wide spectrum of sources to evaluate the current state of knowledge about plant community effects on R, examine how this information is incorporated into global climate models, and highlight priorities for future research. Despite often large variation amongst studies and methods, several general trends emerge. Mechanisms whereby plants affect R may be grouped into effects on belowground C allocation, aboveground litter properties and microclimate. Within vegetation types, the amount of C diverted belowground, and hence R, may be controlled mainly by the rate of photosynthetic C uptake, while amongst vegetation types this should be more dependent upon the specific C allocation strategies of the plant life form. We make the case that plant community composition, rather than diversity, is usually the dominant control on R in natural systems. Individual species impacts on R may be largest where the species accounts for most of the biomass in the ecosystem, has very distinct traits to the rest of the community and/or modulates the occurrence of major natural disturbances. We show that climate vegetation models incorporate a number of pathways whereby plants can affect R, but that simplifications regarding allocation schemes and drivers of litter decomposition may limit model accuracy. We also suggest that under a warmer future climate, many plant communities may shift towards dominance by fast growing plants which produce large quantities of nutrient rich litter. Where this community shift occurs, it could drive an increase in R beyond that expected from direct climate impacts on soil microbial activity alone. We identify key gaps in knowledge and recommend them as priorities for future work. These include the patterns of photosynthate partitioning amongst belowground components, ecosystem level effects of individual plant traits, and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting patterns of R across terrestrial ecosystems and its role within the earth-climate system.

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing ecophysiological processes and carbon budget in East Asian ecosystems under near-future changes in climate: implications for long-term monitoring from a process-based model.

PubMed

Ito, Akihiko

2010-07-01

Using a process-based model, I assessed how ecophysiological processes would respond to near-future global changes predicted by coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. An ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), was applied to four sites in East Asia (different types of forest in Takayama, Tomakomai, and Fujiyoshida, Japan, and an Alpine grassland in Qinghai, China) where observational flux data are available for model calibration. The climate models predicted +1-3 degrees C warming and slight change in annual precipitation by 2050 as a result of an increase in atmospheric CO2. Gross primary production (GPP) was estimated to increase substantially at each site because of improved efficiency in the use of water and radiation. Although increased respiration partly offset the GPP increase, the simulation showed that these ecosystems would act as net carbon sinks independent of disturbance-induced uptake for recovery. However, the carbon budget response relied strongly on nitrogen availability, such that photosynthetic down-regulation resulting from leaf nitrogen dilution largely decreased GPP. In relation to long-term monitoring, these results indicate that the impacts of global warming may be more evident in gross fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis and respiration) than in the net CO2 budget, because changes in these fluxes offset each other.

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

Modeling extreme drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems when thresholds are exceeded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Rammig, A.; Smith, B.; Medvigy, D.; Lichstein, J. W.; Dukes, J. S.; Allen, C. D.; Beier, C.; Larsen, K. S.; Ficken, C. D.; Pockman, W.; Anderegg, W.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Recent IPCC Assessment Reports suggest that with predicted climate changes future precipitation- and heat-related extreme events are becoming stronger and more frequent with potential for prolonged droughts. To prepare for these changes and their impacts, we need to develop a better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In particular, we focus here on large-extent and long-lasting extreme drought events with noticeable impacts on the functioning of forested ecosystems. While most of ecosystem manipulative experiments have been motivated by ongoing and predicted climate change, the majority only applied relatively moderate droughts, not addressing the "very" extreme tail of these scenarios, i.e. "extreme extremes (EEs)". We explore the response of forest ecosystems to EEs using two demographic-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) (i.e. ED2, LPJ-GUESS) in which the abundances of different plant functional types, as well as tree size- and age-class structure, are emergent properties of resource competition. We evaluate the model's capabilities to represent extreme drought scenarios (i.e., 50% and 90% reduction in precipitation for 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year drought scenarios) at two dry forested sites: Palo Verde, Costa Rica (i.e. tropical) and EucFACE, Australia (i.e. temperate). Through the DGVM modeling outcomes we determine the following five testable hypotheses for future experiments: 1) EEs cannot be extrapolated from mild extremes due to plant plasticity and functional composition. 2) Response to EEs depends on functional diversity, trait combinations, and phenology, such that both models predicted even after 100 years plant biomass did not recover. 3) Mortality from drought reduces the pressure on resources and prevents further damage by subsequent years of drought. 4) Early successional stands are more vulnerable to extreme droughts while older stand are more resilient. 5) Elevated atmospheric CO2 alleviates impacts of extreme droughts while increased temperature exacerbates mortality. This study highlighted a number of questions about our current understanding of EEs and their corresponding thresholds and tipping points, and provides an analysis of confidence in model representation and accuracy of processes related to EEs.

Quantifying the effect of nighttime interactions between roots and canopy physiology and their control of water and carbon cycling on feedbacks between soil moisture and terrestrial climatology under variable environmental conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Palmroth, Sari; Oren, Ram

The primary objective of this project is to characterize and quantify how the temporal variability of hydraulic redistribution (HR) and its physiological regulation in unmanaged and complex forests is affecting current water and carbon exchange and predict how future climate scenarios will affect these relationships and potentially feed back to the climate. Specifically, a detailed study of ecosystem water uptake and carbon exchange in relation to root functioning was proposed in order to quantify the mechanisms controlling temporal variability of soil moisture dynamic and HR in three active AmeriFlux sites, and to use published data of two other inactive AmeriFluxmore » sites. Furthermore, data collected by our research group at the Duke Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site was also being utilized to further improve our ability to forecast future environmental impacts of elevated CO2 concentration on soil moisture dynamic and its effect on carbon sequestration and terrestrial climatology. The overarching objective being to forecast, using a soil:plant:atmosphere model coupled with a biosphere:atmosphere model, the impact of root functioning on land surface climatology. By comparing unmanaged sites to plantations, we also proposed to determine the effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon sequestration and climatology through its effect on soil moisture dynamic and HR. Our simulations of HR by roots indicated that in some systems HR is an important mechanism that buffers soil water deficit, affects energy and carbon cycling; thus having significant implications for seasonal climate. HR maintained roots alive and below 70% loss of conductivity and our simulations also showed that the increased vapor pressure deficit at night under future conditions was sufficient to drive significant nighttime transpiration at all sites, which reduced HR. This predicted reduction in HR under future climate conditions played an important regulatory role in land atmosphere interactions by affecting whole ecosystem carbon and water balance. Under future climatic scenarios, HR was reduced thus affecting negatively plant water use and carbon assimilation. The discrepancy between the predicted and actual surface warming and atmospheric water vapor caused by the persistence of evapotranspiration during the dry season, increasing energy transfer in the form of latent heat. Under those simulations, we also evaluated how the hydraulic properties of soil and xylem limited the rate of carbon uptake, and carbon net ecosystem exchange. The multilayered hydraulically driven soil vegetation atmosphere carbon and water transfer model was designed to represent processes common to vascular plants, so that ecosystem atmosphere exchange could be captured by the same processes at different sites. Those models shown to be well suited for investigating the impact of drought on forest ecosystems because of its explicit treatment of water transport to leaves. This modeling work also confirmed that unmanaged, mixed hardwood site are more resilient to climatic variations than an adjacent pine plantation, but that future climatic conditions will reverse this trends.« less

Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

PubMed

Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

Shale Gas, Wind and Water: Assessing the Potential Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play

PubMed Central

Evans, Jeffrey S.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades. PMID:24586599

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin

2015-05-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

[Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].

PubMed

He, Jun-Jie; Peng, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Zhang, Xian-Liang; Zhou, Chang-Hong

2012-07-01

Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.

The synergistic use of models and observations: understanding the mechanisms behind observed biomass dynamics at 14 Amazonian field sites and the implications for future biomass change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, N. M.; Galbraith, D.; Christoffersen, B. J.; Imbuzeiro, H. A.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Costa, M. H.; Phillips, O.; Andrade, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2011-12-01

The Amazonian rainforests play a vital role in global water, energy and carbon cycling. The sensitivity of this system to natural and anthropogenic disturbances therefore has important implications for the global climate. Some global models have predicted large-scale forest dieback and the savannization of Amazonia over the next century [Meehl et al., 2007]. While several studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of dynamic global vegetation models to changes in temperature, precipitation, and dry season length [e.g. Galbraith et al., 2010; Good et al., 2011], the ability of these models to accurately reproduce ecosystem dynamics of present-day transitional or low biomass tropical forests has not been demonstrated. A model-data intercomparison was conducted with four state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models to evaluate the ability of these models to accurately represent structure, function, and long-term biomass dynamics over a range of Amazonian ecosystems. Each modeling group conducted a series of simulations for 14 sites including mature forest, transitional forest, savannah, and agricultural/pasture sites. All models were run using standard physical parameters and the same initialization procedure. Model results were compared against forest inventory and dendrometer data in addition to flux tower measurements. While the models compared well against field observations for the mature forest sites, significant differences were observed between predicted and measured ecosystem structure and dynamics for the transitional forest and savannah sites. The length of the dry season and soil sand content were good predictors of model performance. In addition, for the big leaf models, model performance was highest for sites dominated by late successional trees and lowest for sites with predominantly early and mid-successional trees. This study provides insight into tropical forest function and sensitivity to environmental conditions that will aid in predictions of the response of the Amazonian rainforest to future anthropogenically induced changes.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles.

PubMed

Tyson, Rebecca; Lutscher, Frithjof

2016-11-01

The functional response of some predator species changes from a pattern characteristic for a generalist to that for a specialist according to seasonally varying prey availability. Current theory does not address the dynamic consequences of this phenomenon. Since season length correlates strongly with altitude and latitude and is predicted to change under future climate scenarios, including this phenomenon in theoretical models seems essential for correct prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. We develop and analyze a two-season model for the great horned owl (Bubo virginialis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). These species form a predator-prey system in which the generalist to specialist shift in predation pattern has been documented empirically. We study the qualitative behavior of this predator-prey model community as summer season length changes. We find that relatively small changes in summer season length can have a profound impact on the system. In particular, when the predator has sufficient alternative resources available during the summer season, it can drive the prey to extinction, there can be coexisting stable states, and there can be stable large-amplitude limit cycles coexisting with a stable steady state. Our results illustrate that the impacts of global change on local ecosystems can be driven by internal system dynamics and can potentially have catastrophic consequences.

Meeting the challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems: A call to scientists and managers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Laura S.; Olden, Julian D.; Arthington, Angela; Entrekin, Sally; Hawkins, Charles P.; Kelly, John J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Maitland, Bryan M.; Rosi, Emma J.; Roy, Allison; Strayer, David L.; Tank, Jennifer L.; West, Amie O.; Wooten, Matthew S.

2017-01-01

Human activities create threats that have consequences for freshwater ecosystems and, in most watersheds, observed ecological responses are the result of complex interactions among multiple threats and their associated ecological alterations. Here we discuss the value of considering multiple threats in research and management, offer suggestions for filling knowledge gaps, and provide guidance for addressing the urgent management challenges posed by multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems. There is a growing literature assessing responses to multiple alterations, and we build off this background to identify three areas that require greater attention: linking observed alterations to threats, understanding when and where threats overlap, and choosing metrics that best quantify the effects of multiple threats. Advancing science in these areas will help us understand existing ecosystem conditions and predict future risk from multiple threats. Because addressing the complex issues and novel ecosystems that arise from the interaction of multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems represents a significant management challenge, and the risks of management failure include loss of biodiversity, ecological goods, and ecosystem services, we also identify actions that could improve decision-making and management outcomes. These actions include drawing insights from management of individual threats, using threat attributes (e.g., causes and spatio-temporal dynamics) to identify suitable management approaches, testing management strategies that are likely to be successful despite uncertainties about the nature of interactions among threats, avoiding unintended consequences, and maximizing conservation benefits. We also acknowledge the broadly applicable challenges of decision-making within a socio-political and economic framework, and suggest that multidisciplinary teams will be needed to innovate solutions to meet the current and future challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems. 

Interactions between climate change and contaminants.

PubMed

Schiedek, Doris; Sundelin, Brita; Readman, James W; Macdonald, Robie W

2007-12-01

There is now general consensus that climate change is a global threat and a challenge for the 21st century. More and more information is available demonstrating how increased temperature may affect aquatic ecosystems and living resources or how increased water levels may impact coastal zones and their management. Many ecosystems are also affected by human releases of contaminants, for example from land based sources or the atmosphere, which also may cause severe effects. So far these two important stresses on ecosystems have mainly been discussed independently. The present paper is intended to increase awareness among scientists, coastal zone managers and decision makers that climate change will affect contaminant exposure and toxic effects and that both forms of stress will impact aquatic ecosystems and biota. Based on examples from different ecosystems, we discuss risks anticipated from contaminants in a rapidly changing environment and the research required to understand and predict how on-going and future climate change may alter risks from chemical pollution.

Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

2014-05-01

Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.

A decade of insights into grassland ecosystem responses to global environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borer, Elizabeth T.; Grace, James B.; Harpole, W. Stanley; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Seabloom, Eric W.

2017-01-01

Earth’s biodiversity and carbon uptake by plants, or primary productivity, are intricately interlinked, underlie many essential ecosystem processes, and depend on the interplay among environmental factors, many of which are being changed by human activities. While ecological theory generalizes across taxa and environments, most empirical tests of factors controlling diversity and productivity have been observational, single-site experiments, or meta-analyses, limiting our understanding of variation among site-level responses and tests of general mechanisms. A synthesis of results from ten years of a globally distributed, coordinated experiment, the Nutrient Network (NutNet), demonstrates that species diversity promotes ecosystem productivity and stability, and that nutrient supply and herbivory control diversity via changes in composition, including invasions of non-native species and extinction of native species. Distributed experimental networks are a powerful tool for tests and integration of multiple theories and for generating multivariate predictions about the effects of global changes on future ecosystems.

Improving paleoecology studies for future predictions: role of spatial and temporal scales for understanding ecology of the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David M.; Ng, Gene-Hua Crystal; Maher, Katharine

2014-01-01

Paleoecology (or ecological biogeography) describes the past distribution of species or communities and is an informative path used to understand the future in the face of climate change. Paleoecological changes in the Southwest over the past several thousand years happened in the presence of landscape manipulations by humans, a factor that adds relevance but increases difficulty of interpretation. What paleo-records are needed for (1) understanding past climate-driven changes (climate proxies), (2) resolving species sensitivity to and resilience against change (biogeographical data), and (3) understanding past ecosystem function and changes (environmental data)? What information is most urgently needed for ecosystem forecasts, and are there kinds of monitoring we need to start now so that we will have ground truth in the near future? These are major questions. Answering them for the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest in part relies on careful thought about the spatial and temporal scales of data needed.

Snowmelt-Driven Trade-Offs Between Early and Late Season Productivity Negatively Impact Forest Carbon Uptake During Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, John F.; Molotch, Noah P.; Trujillo, Ernesto; Litvak, Marcy E.

2018-04-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally with unknown implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity. Accordingly, this study combined satellite- and tower-based observations to investigate the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, United States. Our results show that early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related and that future shifts toward earlier and/or reduced snowmelt could decrease snowmelt water use efficiency and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This was explained by increasing snow aridity, which incorporated evaporative demand and snow water supply, and was modified by summer precipitation to determine total annual productivity. The combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34 year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions.

Can Tree Ring Analyses Predict Resilience of Black Spruce Forests to Fire in Interior Alaska?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Mack, M. C.

2015-12-01

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide. As such there is a growing need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem's ability to recover from disturbance, commonly referred to as ecosystem resilience. In trees, drought-induced growth declines may signal decreased ecosystem resilience if mature trees are able to survive in stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful post-disturbance recruitment and survival. Here we explore links between ecosystem resilience and the growth-climate relationships of pre-fire trees, specifically drought stress signals, across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned black spruce stands within interior Alaska and found the proportion of black spruce relative to deciduous trees decreased post-fire, ranging from almost no change to a 90% decrease. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites where trees showed negative growth responses to warm spring temperatures, and shallow post-fire organic layer depths due to dry site conditions or high fire severity. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites at the wetter end of the gradient. Tree growth-climate responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to ongoing climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience and forecasting future forest composition.

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

PubMed

Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

2018-02-01

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

Evaluation of mitigation measures to reduce hydropeaking impacts on river ecosystems - a case study from the Swiss Alps.

PubMed

Tonolla, Diego; Bruder, Andreas; Schweizer, Steffen

2017-01-01

New Swiss legislation obligates hydropower plant owners to reduce detrimental impacts on rivers ecosystems caused by hydropeaking. We used a case study in the Swiss Alps (hydropower company Kraftwerke Oberhasli AG) to develop an efficient and successful procedure for the ecological evaluation of such impacts, and to predict the effects of possible mitigation measures. We evaluated the following scenarios using 12 biotic and abiotic indicators: the pre-mitigation scenario (i.e. current state), the future scenario with increased turbine capacity but without mitigation measures, and future scenarios with increased turbine capacity and four alternative mitigation measures. The evaluation was based on representative hydrographs and quantitative or qualitative prediction of the indicators. Despite uncertainties in the ecological responses and the future operation mode of the hydropower plant, the procedure allowed the most appropriate mitigation measure to be identified. This measure combines a basin and a cavern at a total retention volume of 80,000m 3 , allowing for substantial dampening in the flow falling and ramping rates and in turn considerable reduction in stranding risk for juvenile trout and in macroinvertebrate drift. In general, this retention volume had the greatest predicted ecological benefit and can also, to some extent, compensate for possible modifications in the hydropower operation regime in the future, e.g. due to climate change, changes in the energy market, and changes in river morphology. Furthermore, it also allows for more specific seasonal regulations of retention volume during ecologically sensitive periods (e.g. fish spawning seasons). Overall experience gained from our case study is expected to support other hydropeaking mitigation projects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed

Maxwell, Paul S; Pitt, Kylie A; Olds, Andrew D; Rissik, David; Connolly, Rod M

2015-03-01

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.

Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington.

Treesearch

Michael J. Case; David L. Peterson

2005-01-01

Information about the sensitivity to climate of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is valuable because it will allow forest managers to maximize growth, better understand how carbon sequestration may change over time, and better model and predict future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examined the effects of climatic...

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia

EPA Science Inventory

We describe the application of a coastal ocean ecosystem model to assess the effect of a future climate scenario of plus (+) 3 °C air temperature and + 10% river discharge on hypoxia (O2 < 63 mmol m−3) in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We applied the model to the Louisiana shelf as...

Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

2015-01-01

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

2017-12-01

Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

The Impacts of Climate-Induced Drought on Biogeochemical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, C.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global biogeochemical cycles and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets. Recent studies indicated that forest mortality caused by rising temperature and drought from around the world have unexpectedly increased in the past decade and they collectively illustrate the vulnerability of many forested ecosystems to rapid increases in tree mortality due to warmer temperatures and more severe drought. Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services (such as albedo and carbon sequestration). Quantifying potential impacts of tree mortality on ecosystem processes requires research into mortality effects on carbon, energy, and water budgets at both site and regional levels. Despite recent progress, the uncertainty around mortality responses still limits our ability to predict the likelihood and anticipate the impacts of tree die-off. Studies are needed that explore tree death physiology for a wide variety of functional types, connect patterns of mortality with climate events, and quantify the impacts on carbon, energy, and water flux. In this presentation, I will highlight recent research progress, and identify key research needs and future challenges to predict the consequence and impacts of drought-induced large-scale forest mortality on biogeochemical cycles. I will focus on three main forest ecosystems (tropic rainforest in Amazon, temperate forest in Western USA, and boreal forest in Canada) as detailed case studies.

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models.

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE PAGES

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard; ...

2018-01-02

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Estuaries of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: Laboratories of Long-term Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wingard, G.L.; Hudley, J.W.; Marshall, F.E.

2010-01-01

Restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem of south Florida is arguably the largest ecosystem restoration effort to date. A critical goal is to return more natural patterns of flow through south Florida wetlands and into the estuaries, but development of realistic targets requires acknowledgement that ecosystems are constantly evolving and changing in response to a variety of natural and human-driven stressors. Examination of ecosystems over long periods of time requires analysis of sedimentary records, such as those deposited in the wetlands and estuaries of south Florida. As sediment accumulates, it preserves information about the animals and plants that lived in the environment and the physical, chemical, and climatic conditions present. One of the methods used to interpret this information is paleoecology-the study of the ecology of previously living organisms. Paleoecologic investigations of south Florida estuaries provide quantitative data on historical variability of salinity and trends that may be applied to statistical models to estimate historical freshwater flow. These data provide a unique context to estimate future ecosystem response to changes related to restoration activities and predicted changes in sea level and temperature, thus increasing the likelihood of successful and sustainable ecosystem restoration.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change.

PubMed

Twomey, Marion; Brodte, Eva; Jacob, Ute; Brose, Ulrich; Crowe, Tasman P; Emmerson, Mark C

2012-11-05

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.

Future Climate Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in an Agriculturally Dominated Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, N. R.; Martin, J.; Ludsin, S.; Stumpf, R. P.

2015-12-01

Cyanobacteria blooms have become a major problem worldwide in aquatic ecosystems that receive excessive runoff of limiting nutrients from terrestrial drainage. Such blooms often are considered harmful because they degrade ecosystem services, threaten public health, and burden local economies. Owing to changing agricultural land-use practices, Lake Erie, the most biologically productive of the North American Great Lakes, has begun to undergo a re-eutrophication in which the frequency and extent of harmful algal blooms (HABs) has increased. Continued climate change has been hypothesized to magnify the HAB problem in Lake Erie in the absence of new agricultural management practices, although this hypothesis has yet to be formally tested empirically. Herein, we tested this hypothesis by predicting how the frequency and extent of potentially harmful cyanobacteria blooms will change in Lake Erie during the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment climate projections in the region. To do so, we used 80 ensembles of climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (moderate reduction, RCP4.5; business-as-usual, RCP8.5) to drive a spatiotemporally explicit watershed-hydrology model that was linked to several statistical predictive models of annual cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Erie. Owing to anticipated increases in precipitation during spring and warmer temperatures during summer, our ensemble of predictions revealed that, if current land-management practices continue, the frequency of severe HABs in Lake Erie will increase during the 21st century. These findings identify a real need to consider future climate projections when developing nutrient reduction strategies in the short term, with adaptation also needing to be encouraged under both greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in the absence of effective nutrient mitigation strategies.

Representation of physiological drought at ecosystem level based on model and eddy covariance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Novick, K. A.; Song, C.; Zhang, Q.; Hwang, T.

2017-12-01

Drought and heat waves are expected to increase both in frequency and amplitude, exhibiting a major disturbance to global carbon and water cycles under future climate change. However, how these climate anomalies translate into physiological drought, or ecosystem moisture stress are still not clear, especially under the co-limitations from soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water. In this study, we characterized the ecosystem-level moisture stress in a deciduous forest in the southeastern United States using the Coupled Carbon and Water (CCW) model and in-situ eddy covariance measurements. Physiologically, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as an atmospheric water demand indicator largely controls the openness of leaf stomata, and regulates atmospheric carbon and water exchanges during periods of hydrological stress. Here, we tested three forms of VPD-related moisture scalars, i.e. exponent (K2), hyperbola (K3), and logarithm (K4) to quantify the sensitivity of light-use efficiency to VPD along different soil moisture conditions. The sensitivity indicators of K values were calibrated based on the framework of CCW using Monte Carlo simulations on the hourly scale, in which VPD and soil water content (SWC) are largely decoupled and the full carbon and water exchanging information are held. We found that three K values show similar performances in the predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis and transpiration after calibration. However, all K values show consistent gradient changes along SWC, indicating that this deciduous forest is less responsive to VPD as soil moisture decreases, a phenomena of isohydricity in which plants tend to close stomata to keep the leaf water potential constant and reduce the risk of hydraulic failure. Our study suggests that accounting for such isohydric information, or spectrum of moisture stress along different soil moisture conditions in models can significantly improve our ability to predict ecosystem responses to future drought.

An ecosystem-scale model for the spread of a host-specific forest pathogen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatala, J.A.; Dietze, M.C.; Crabtree, R.L.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Six, D.; Moorcroft, P.R.

2011-01-01

The introduction of nonnative pathogens is altering the scale, magnitude, and persistence of forest disturbance regimes in the western United States. In the high-altitude whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) is an introduced fungal pathogen that is now the principal cause of tree mortality in many locations. Although blister rust eradication has failed in the past, there is nonetheless substantial interest in monitoring the disease and its rate of progression in order to predict the future impact of forest disturbances within this critical ecosystem.This study integrates data from five different field-monitoring campaigns from 1968 to 2008 to create a blister rust infection model for sites located throughout the GYE. Our model parameterizes the past rates of blister rust spread in order to project its future impact on high-altitude whitebark pine forests. Because the process of blister rust infection and mortality of individuals occurs over the time frame of many years, the model in this paper operates on a yearly time step and defines a series of whitebark pine infection classes: susceptible, slightly infected, moderately infected, and dead. In our analysis, we evaluate four different infection models that compare local vs. global density dependence on the dynamics of blister rust infection. We compare models in which blister rust infection is: (1) independent of the density of infected trees, (2) locally density-dependent, (3) locally density-dependent with a static global infection rate among all sites, and (4) both locally and globally density-dependent. Model evaluation through the predictive loss criterion for Bayesian analysis supports the model that is both locally and globally density-dependent. Using this best-fit model, we predicted the average residence times for the four stages of blister rust infection in our model, and we found that, on average, whitebark pine trees within the GYE remain susceptible for 6.7 years, take 10.9 years to transition from slightly infected to moderately infected, and take 9.4 years to transition from moderately infected to dead. Using our best-fit model, we project the future levels of blister rust infestation in the GYE at critical sites over the next 20 years.

Apparent competition drives community-wide parasitism rates and changes in host abundance across ecosystem boundaries

PubMed Central

Frost, Carol M.; Peralta, Guadalupe; Rand, Tatyana A.; Didham, Raphael K.; Varsani, Arvind; Tylianakis, Jason M.

2016-01-01

Species have strong indirect effects on others, and predicting these effects is a central challenge in ecology. Prey species sharing an enemy (predator or parasitoid) can be linked by apparent competition, but it is unknown whether this process is strong enough to be a community-wide structuring mechanism that could be used to predict future states of diverse food webs. Whether species abundances are spatially coupled by enemy movement across different habitats is also untested. Here, using a field experiment, we show that predicted apparent competitive effects between species, mediated via shared parasitoids, can significantly explain future parasitism rates and herbivore abundances. These predictions are successful even across edges between natural and managed forests, following experimental reduction of herbivore densities by aerial spraying of insecticide over 20 hectares. This result shows that trophic indirect effects propagate across networks and habitats in important, predictable ways, with implications for landscape planning, invasion biology and biological control. PMID:27577948

Interactions among ecosystem stressors and their importance in conservation

PubMed Central

Darling, Emily S.; Brown, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

Interactions between multiple ecosystem stressors are expected to jeopardize biological processes, functions and biodiversity. The scientific community has declared stressor interactions—notably synergies—a key issue for conservation and management. Here, we review ecological literature over the past four decades to evaluate trends in the reporting of ecological interactions (synergies, antagonisms and additive effects) and highlight the implications and importance to conservation. Despite increasing popularity, and ever-finer terminologies, we find that synergies are (still) not the most prevalent type of interaction, and that conservation practitioners need to appreciate and manage for all interaction outcomes, including antagonistic and additive effects. However, it will not be possible to identify the effect of every interaction on every organism's physiology and every ecosystem function because the number of stressors, and their potential interactions, are growing rapidly. Predicting the type of interactions may be possible in the near-future, using meta-analyses, conservation-oriented experiments and adaptive monitoring. Pending a general framework for predicting interactions, conservation management should enact interventions that are robust to uncertainty in interaction type and that continue to bolster biological resilience in a stressful world. PMID:26865306

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Holocene key coral species in the Northwest Pacific: indicators of reef formation and reef ecosystem responses to global climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hongo, Chuki

2012-03-01

The geological record of key coral species that contribute to reef formation and maintenance of reef ecosystems is important for understanding the ecosystem response to global-scale climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future. Future responses can be predicted from accumulated data on Holocene reef species identified in drillcore and from data on raised reef terraces. The present study analyzes a dataset based on 27 drillcores, raised reef terraces, and 134 radiocarbon and U-Th ages from reefs of the Northwest Pacific, with the aim of examining the role of key coral species in reef growth and maintenance for reef ecosystem during Holocene sea-level change. The results indicate a latitudinal change in key coral species: arborescent Acropora (Acropora intermedia and Acropora muricata) was the dominant reef builder at reef crests in the tropics, whereas Porites (Porites australiensis, Porites lutea, and Porites lobata) was the dominant contributor to reef growth in the subtropics between 10,000 and 7000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 10 m/ka). Acropora digitifera, Acropora hyacinthus, Acropora robusta/A. abrotanoides, Isopora palifera, Favia stelligera, and Goniastrea retiformis from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies were the main key coral species at reef crests between 7000 and 5000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 5 m/ka) and during the following period of stable sea-level. Massive Porites (P. australiensis, P. lutea, and P. lobata) contributed to reef growth in shallow lagoons during the period of stable sea level. Key coral species from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies have the potential to build reefs and maintain ecosystems in the near future under a global sea-level rise of 2-6 m/ka, as do key coral species from the arborescent Acropora facies and massive Porites facies, which show vigorous growth and are tolerant to relatively deep-water, low-energy environments. However, these species are likely to experience severe mortality in upcoming decades due to natural and anthropogenic stresses. Consequently, this damage will lead to a collapse in reef formation and the maintenance of reef ecosystems in the near future. This study emphasizes the need for research into the conservation of key coral species.

Mycorrhiza-mediated competition between plants and decomposers drives soil carbon storage.

PubMed

Averill, Colin; Turner, Benjamin L; Finzi, Adrien C

2014-01-23

Soil contains more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the accumulation and stability of soil carbon is critical to predicting the Earth's future climate. Recent studies suggest that decomposition of soil organic matter is often limited by nitrogen availability to microbes and that plants, via their fungal symbionts, compete directly with free-living decomposers for nitrogen. Ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal (EEM) fungi produce nitrogen-degrading enzymes, allowing them greater access to organic nitrogen sources than arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. This leads to the theoretical prediction that soil carbon storage is greater in ecosystems dominated by EEM fungi than in those dominated by AM fungi. Using global data sets, we show that soil in ecosystems dominated by EEM-associated plants contains 70% more carbon per unit nitrogen than soil in ecosystems dominated by AM-associated plants. The effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon is independent of, and of far larger consequence than, the effects of net primary production, temperature, precipitation and soil clay content. Hence the effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon content holds at the global scale. This finding links the functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi to carbon storage at ecosystem-to-global scales, suggesting that plant-decomposer competition for nutrients exerts a fundamental control over the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Revising the economic imperative for US STEM education.

PubMed

Donovan, Brian M; Moreno Mateos, David; Osborne, Jonathan F; Bisaccio, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Over the last decade macroeconomic studies have established a clear link between student achievement on science and math tests and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth, supporting the widely held belief that science, technology, engineering, and math(STEM) education are important factors in the production of economic prosperity. We critique studies that use science and math tests to predict GDP growth, arguing that estimates of the future economic value of STEM education involve substantial speculation because they ignore the impacts of economic growth on biodiversity and ecosystem functionality, which, in the long-term, limit the potential for future economic growth. Furthermore, we argue that such ecological impacts can be enabled by STEM education. Therefore, we contend that the real economic imperative for the STEM pipeline is not just raising standardized test scores, but also empowering students to assess, preserve, and restore ecosystems in order to reduce ecological degradation and increase economic welfare.

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A

2015-12-01

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

Partitioning sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of future climate extremes on site to regional ecosystem carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simkins, J.; Desai, A. R.; Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.; Rollinson, C.

2016-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere assimilates nearly one fourth of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, providing a significant ecosystem service. Anthropogenic climate changes that influence the distribution and frequency of weather extremes and can have a momentous impact on this useful function that ecosystems provide. However, most analyses of the impact of extreme events on ecosystem carbon uptake do not integrate across the wide range of structural, parametric, and driver uncertainty that needs to be taken into account to estimate probability of changes to ecosystem function under shifts in climate patterns. In order to improve ecosystem model forecasts, we integrated and estimated these sources of uncertainty using an open-sourced informatics workflow, the Predictive ECosystem Analyzer (PEcAn, http://pecanproject.org). PEcAn allows any researcher to parameterize and run multiple ecosystem models and automate extraction of meteorological forcing and estimation of its uncertainty. Trait databases and a uniform protocol for parameterizing and driving models were used to test parametric and structural uncertainty. In order to sample the uncertainty in future projected meteorological drivers, we developed automated extraction routines to acquire site-level three-hourly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) forcing data from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation models (CM3, ESM2M, and ESM2G) across the r1i1p1, r3i1p1 and r5i1p1 ensembles and AR5 emission scenarios. We also implemented a site-level high temporal resolution downscaling technique for these forcings calibrated against half-hourly eddy covariance flux tower observations. Our hypothesis claims that parametric and driver uncertainty dominate over the model structural uncertainty. In order to test this, we partition the uncertainty budget on the ChEAS regional network of towers in Northern Wisconsin, USA where each tower is located in forest and wetland ecosystems.

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

Treesearch

Bruce A. Kimball; Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez; Molly A. Cavaleri; Sasha C. Reed; Grizelle González; Tana E. Wood

2018-01-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses...

Big changes in cold places: the future of wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Natasha Vizcarra; Bruce Marcot

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures are changing ecosystems in the Arctic. They are becoming greener as the climate and land become more hospitable to taller vegetation. Scientists predict that woody vegetation in the Arctic will increase by more than 50 percent, and half of all vegetated areas will shift to types more suited to the higher temperatures and changing physical...

Plant community composition as a predictor of regional soil carbon storage in Alaskan boreal black spruce ecosystems

Treesearch

T.N. Hollingsworth; E.A.G. Schuur; F.S. III Chapin; M.D. Walker

2008-01-01

The boreal forest is the largest terrestrial biome in North America and holds a large portion of the world's reactive soil carbon. Therefore, understanding soil carbon accumulation on a landscape or regional scale across the boreal forest is useful for predicting future soil carbon storage. Here, we examined the relationship between floristic composition and...

Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments

Treesearch

Patrick Meir; Tana Wood; David R. Galbraith; Paulo M. Brando; Antonio C.I. Da Costa; Lucy Rowland; Leandro V. Ferreira

2015-01-01

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE)...

Divergent patterns of experimental and model derived variables of tundra ecosystem carbon exchange in response to arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.

Assessing model sensitivity and uncertainty across multiple Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. It is necessary that we understand which factors are driving this uncertainty. The Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments have equipped us with a rich data source that can be used to calibrate and validate these model predictions. To identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences we performed model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis across ambient and elevated CO2 treatments using the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon (DALEC) model and the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), two process-based models ranging from low to high complexity respectively. These modeled process responses were compared to experimental data from the Kennedy Space Center Open Top Chamber Experiment, the Nevada Desert Free Air CO2 Enrichment Facility, the Rhinelander FACE experiment, the Wyoming Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment Experiment, the Duke Forest Face experiment and the Oak Ridge Experiment on CO2 Enrichment. By leveraging data access proxy and data tilling services provided by the BrownDog data curation project alongside analysis modules available in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), we produced automated, repeatable benchmarking workflows that are generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Combining the observed patterns of uncertainty between the two models with results of the recent FACE-model data synthesis project (FACE-MDS) can help identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. These findings can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide informative starting point for data assimilation.

Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

2015-08-01

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and complementary information in addition to that provided by forecasts of species occurrence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Interactive effects of nocturnal transpiration and climate change on the root hydraulic redistribution and carbon and water budgets of southern United States pine plantations.

PubMed

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Ogée, Jérôme; Noormets, Asko; Jouangy, Julien; Gavazzi, Michael; Treasure, Emrys; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steve G; King, John S

2012-06-01

Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) have been shown to play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change, fertilization and soil characteristics on HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from three mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, this study indicated that HR can mitigate the effects of soil drying and had important implications for carbon uptake potential and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), especially when N fertilization is considered. At the coastal site (C), characterized by deep organic soil, HR increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 40%, and such an increase affected NEE through major changes in gross primary productivity (GPP). Deep-rooted trees did not necessarily translate into a large volume of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case at the sandy site (S). At the Piedmont site (P) characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, HR was low but not negligible, representing up to 10% of T. In the absence of HR, it was predicted that at the C, S and P sites, annual GPP would have been diminished by 19, 7 and 9%, respectively. Under future climate conditions HR was predicted to be reduced by up to 25% at the C site, reducing the resilience of trees to precipitation deficits. The effect of HR on T and GPP was predicted to diminish under future conditions by 12 and 6% at the C and P sites, respectively. Under future conditions, T was predicted to stay the same at the P site, but to be marginally reduced at the C site and slightly increased at the S site. Future conditions and N fertilization would decrease T by 25% at the C site, by 15% at the P site and by 8% at the S site. At the C and S sites, GPP was estimated to increase by 18% and by >70% under future conditions, respectively, with little effect of N fertilization. At the P site, future conditions would stimulate GPP by only 12%, but future conditions plus N fertilization would increase GPP by 24%. As a consequence, in all sites, water use efficiency was predicted to improve dramatically with future conditions. Modeling the effect of reduced annual precipitation indicated that limited water availability would decrease all carbon fluxes, including NEE and respiration. Our simulations highlight the interactive effects of nutrients and elevated CO(2), and showed that the effect of N fertilization would be greater under future climate conditions.

Potential Carbon Stock Changes in Arizona's Ecosystems Due to Projected Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finley, B. K.; Ironside, K.; Hungate, B. A.; Hurteau, M.; Koch, G. W.

2011-12-01

Climate change can alter the role of plants and soils as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide and result in changes in long-term carbon storage. To understand the sensitivity of Arizona's ecosystems to climate change, we quantified the present carbon stocks in Arizona's major ecosystem types using the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model. Carbon stocks for each vegetation type included surface mineral soil, dead wood litter, standing wood and live leaf biomass. The total Arizona ecosystem carbon stock is presently 1775 MMtC, 545 MMtC of which is in Pinus ponderosa and Pinus edulis forests and woodlands. Evergreen forest vegetation, predominately Pinus ponderosa, has the largest current C density at 11.3 kgC/m2, while Pinus edulis woodlands have a C density of 6.0 kgC/m2. A change in climate will impact the suitable range for each tree species, and consequentially the amount of C stored. Present habitat ranges for these tree species are projected to have widespread mortality and likely will be replaced by herbaceous species, resulting in a loss of C stored. We evaluated the C storage implications over the 2010 to 2099 period of climate change based on output from GCMs with contrasting projections for the southwestern US: MPI-ECHAM5, which projects warming and reduced precipitation, and UKMO-HadGEM, which projects warming and increased precipitation. These projected changes are end points of a spectrum of possible future climate scenarios. The vegetation distribution models used describe potential suitable habitat, and we assumed that the growth rate for each vegetation type would be one-third of the way to full C density for each 30 year period up to 2099. With increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation predictions under the MPI-ECHAM5 model, P. ponderosa and P. edulis vegetation show a decrease in carbon stored from 545 MMtC presently to 116 MMtC. With the combined increase in temperature and precipitation, C storage in these vegetation types is projected to increase to 808 MMtC. Our results indicate that future C storage in Arizona is highly dependent on precipitation. Given that most climate models for the Southwest predict a more arid future, it is likely that C storage will decrease in Arizona ecosystems, as it has in response to recent droughts, reducing mitigation of rising human emissions.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts.

PubMed

Vidiella, Blai; Sardanyés, Josep; Solé, Ricard

2018-06-01

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and contain a similar percentage of the human population. Theoretical models and palaeoclimatic data predict a grim future, with rapid shifts towards a desert state, with accelerated diversity losses and ecological collapses. These shifts are a consequence of the special nonlinearities resulting from ecological facilitation. Here, we investigate a simple model of semiarid ecosystems identifying the so-called ghost, which appears after a catastrophic transition from a vegetated to a desert state once a critical rate of soil degradation is overcome. The ghost involves a slowdown of transients towards the desert state, making the ecosystem seem stable even though vegetation extinction is inevitable. We use this model to show how to exploit the ecological ghosts to avoid collapse. Doing so involves the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation capable of maintaining a stable community once the catastrophic shift condition has been achieved. This intervention method is successfully tested under the presence of demographic stochastic fluctuations. © 2018 The Author(s).

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Ecosystem carbon exchange in response to locust outbreaks in a temperate steppe.

PubMed

Song, Jian; Wu, Dandan; Shao, Pengshuai; Hui, Dafeng; Wan, Shiqiang

2015-06-01

It is predicted that locust outbreaks will occur more frequently under future climate change scenarios, with consequent effects on ecological goods and services. A field manipulative experiment was conducted to examine the responses of gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), and soil respiration (SR) to locust outbreaks in a temperate steppe of northern China from 2010 to 2011. Two processes related to locust outbreaks, natural locust feeding and carcass deposition, were mimicked by clipping 80 % of aboveground biomass and adding locust carcasses, respectively. Ecosystem carbon (C) exchange (i.e., GEP, NEE, ER, and SR) was suppressed by locust feeding in 2010, but stimulated by locust carcass deposition in both years (except SR in 2011). Experimental locust outbreaks (i.e., clipping plus locust carcass addition) decreased GEP and NEE in 2010 whereas they increased GEP, NEE, and ER in 2011, leading to neutral changes in GEP, NEE, and SR across the 2 years. The responses of ecosystem C exchange could have been due to the changes in soil ammonium nitrogen, community cover, and aboveground net primary productivity. Our findings of the transient and neutral changes in ecosystem C cycling under locust outbreaks highlight the importance of resistance, resilience, and stability of the temperate steppe in maintaining reliable ecosystem services, and facilitate the projections of ecosystem functioning in response to natural disturbance and climate change.

Differential sensitivity to regional-scale drought in six central US grasslands.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Carroll, Charles J W; Denton, Elsie M; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Collins, Scott L; Smith, Melinda D

2015-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems often vary dramatically in their responses to drought, but the reasons for this are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central US experienced the fourth largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity is inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 years) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per millimeter reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than twofold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing 40% reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms leading to differences in drought sensitivity will require multi-site manipulative experiments designed to assess both biotic and abiotic determinants of ecosystem sensitivity.

Improving predictions of carbon fluxes in the tropics undre climatic changes using ED2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Uriarte, M.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere, highlighting the urgency of understanding the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. The most optimistic predictions of climate models indicate that global mean temperatures will increase by up to 2 0C with some tropical regions experiencing extreme heat. Drought and heat-induced tree mortality will accelerate the release of carbon to the atmosphere creating a positive feedback that greatly exacerbates global warming. Thus, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests may become net sources, rather than sinks, of carbon. Earth system models have not reached a consensus on the magnitude and direction of climate change impacts on tropical forests, calling into question the reliability of their predictions. Thus, there is an immediate need to improve the representation of tropical forests in earth system models to make robust predictions. The goal of our study is to quantify the responses of tropical forests to climate variability and improve the predictive capacity of terrestrial ecosystem models. We have collected species-specific physiological and functional trait data from 144 tree species in a Puerto Rican rainforest to parameterize the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). The large amount of data generated by this research will lead to better validation and lowering the uncertainty in future model predictions. To best represent the forest landscape in ED2, all the trees have been assigned to three plant functional types (PFTs): early, mid, and late successional species. Trait data for each PFT were synthesized in a Bayesian meta-analytical model and posterior distributions of traits were used to parameterize the ED2 model. Model predictions show that biomass production of late successional PFT (118.89 ton/ha) was consistently higher than mid (71.33 ton/ha) and early (13.21 ton/ha) PFTs. However, mid successional PFT had the highest contributions to NPP for the modeled period. Tropical forest biomass reduces by 30% under future drought scenario turning the tropics into carbon sources. Ensemble runs were conducted to construct error estimates around model forecasts, to compare modeled and observed aboveground biomass, and to identify which processes and tree species need further study.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Tree cover and aridity projections to 2060: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment

Treesearch

Eric J. Greenfield; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Future projections of tree cover and climate change are useful to natural resource managers as they illustrate potential changes to our natural resources and the ecosystem services they provide. This report a) details three projections of tree cover change across the conterminous United States based on predicted land-use changes from 2000 to 2060; b) evaluates nine...

Predicting response of fuel load to future changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

Chi Zhang; Hanqin Tian; Yuhang Wang; Tao Zeng; Yongqiang Liu

2010-01-01

The model projected ecosystem carbon dynamics were incorporated into the default (contemporary) fuel load map developed by FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) to estimate the dynamics of fuel load in the Southern United States in response to projected changes in climate and atmosphere (CO2 and nitrogen deposition) from 2002 to 2050. The study results...

Using Biodiversity Indicators to Assess the Success of Forecasting Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Newfoundland and Labrador Experience

Treesearch

C. Sean Dolter

2006-01-01

This paper reports on an initiative referred to as the Biodiversity Assessment Project (BAP). A suite of tools is being developed to assist forest managers in assessing the predicted future forest conditions of Newfoundland and Labrador’s forests under a variety of management scenarios. Since 1999, the Western Newfoundland Model Forest partnership...

Complex carbon cycle responses to multi-level warming and supplemental summer rain in the high Arctic.

PubMed

Sharp, Elizabeth D; Sullivan, Patrick F; Steltzer, Heidi; Csank, Adam Z; Welker, Jeffrey M

2013-06-01

The Arctic has experienced rapid warming and, although there are uncertainties, increases in precipitation are projected to accompany future warming. Climate changes are expected to affect magnitudes of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). Furthermore, ecosystem responses to climate change are likely to be characterized by nonlinearities, thresholds and interactions among system components and the driving variables. These complex interactions increase the difficulty of predicting responses to climate change and necessitate the use of manipulative experiments. In 2003, we established a long-term, multi-level and multi-factor climate change experiment in a polar semidesert in northwest Greenland. Two levels of heating (30 and 60 W m(-2) ) were applied and the higher level was combined with supplemental summer rain. We made plot-level measurements of CO2 exchange, plant community composition, foliar nitrogen concentrations, leaf δ(13) C and NDVI to examine responses to our treatments at ecosystem- and leaf-levels. We confronted simple models of GEP and ER with our data to test hypotheses regarding key drivers of CO2 exchange and to estimate growing season CO2 -C budgets. Low-level warming increased the magnitude of the ecosystem C sink. Meanwhile, high-level warming made the ecosystem a source of C to the atmosphere. When high-level warming was combined with increased summer rain, the ecosystem became a C sink of magnitude similar to that observed under low-level warming. Competition among our ER models revealed the importance of soil moisture as a driving variable, likely through its effects on microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Measurements of community composition and proxies for leaf-level physiology suggest GEP responses largely reflect changes in leaf area of Salix arctica, rather than changes in leaf-level physiology. Our findings indicate that the sign and magnitude of the future High Arctic C budget may depend upon changes in summer rain. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The science, information, and engineering needed to manage water availability and quality in 2050: Chapter 23

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

This chapter explores four water resources issues: 1) hydrologic variability, hazards, water supply and ecosystem preservation; 2) urban landscape design; 3) non-point source water quality, and 4) climate change, resiliency, and nonstationarity. It also considers what science, technology, and engineering practice may be needed in the coming decades to sustain water supplies and ecosystems in the face of increasing stresses from a growing demand for water. Dealing with these four water resource issues in the highly uncertain future would will demand predictive models that are rooted in real-world data. In a non-stationary world, continuity of observations is crucial. All watersheds are influenced by human actions through changes in land use, water use, and climate. The focus of water planning and management between today and 2050 will depend more than ever on collection and analysis of long-term data to learn about the evolving state of the system, understanding ecosystem processes in the water and on the landscape, and finding innovative ways to manage water as a shared resource. This includes sharing water with our neighbors on the landscape, sharing with the other species that depend on water, and sharing with future generations.

Are we failing to protect threatened mangroves in the Sundarbans world heritage ecosystem?

PubMed

Sarker, Swapan K; Reeve, Richard; Thompson, Jill; Paul, Nirmal K; Matthiopoulos, Jason

2016-02-16

The Sundarbans, the largest mangrove ecosystem in the world, is under threat from historical and future human exploitation and sea level rise. Limited scientific knowledge on the spatial ecology of the mangroves in this world heritage ecosystem has been a major impediment to conservation efforts. Here, for the first time, we report on habitat suitability analyses and spatial density maps for the four most prominent mangrove species--Heritiera fomes, Excoecaria agallocha, Ceriops decandra and Xylocarpus mekongensis. Globally endangered H. fomes abundances declined as salinity increased. Responses to nutrients, elevation, and stem density varied between species. H. fomes and X. mekongensis preferred upstream habitats. E. agallocha and C. decandra preferred down-stream and mid-stream habitats. Historical harvesting had negative influences on H. fomes, C. decandra and X. mekongensis abundances. The established protected area network does not support the most suitable habitats of these threatened species. We therefore recommend a reconfiguration of the network to include these suitable habitats and ensure their immediate protection. These novel habitat insights and spatial predictions can form the basis for future forest studies and spatial conservation planning, and have implications for more effective conservation of the Sundarbans mangroves and the many other species that rely on them.

Using an Ecological Land Hierarchy to Predict Seasonal-Wetland Abundance in Upland Forests

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Richard Buech; Leanne Egeland

2003-01-01

Hierarchy theory, when applied to landscapes, predicts that broader-scale ecosystems constrain the development of finer-scale, nested ecosystems. This prediction finds application in hierarchical land classifications. Such classifications typically apply to physiognomically similar ecosystems, or ecological land units, e.g., a set of multi-scale forest ecosystems. We...

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Stocks and Fluxes in the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmants, P. C.; Sleeter, B. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Zhu, Z.; Asner, G. P.

2016-12-01

Hawaii is characterized by steep climatic gradients and heterogeneous land cover within a small geographic area, presenting a model tropical system to capture ecosystem carbon dynamics across a wide range of climate, soil, and land use conditions. However, ecosystem carbon balance is poorly understood on a statewide level, and the potential for climate and land use change to affect carbon dynamics in Hawaii has not been formally assessed. We estimated current baseline and projected future ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes on the seven main Hawaiian Islands using a combination of remote sensing, published plot-level data, and simulation modeling. Total ecosystem carbon storage during the baseline period was estimated at 258 TgC, with 70% stored as soil organic carbon, 25% as live biomass and 5% as surface detritus, and gross primary production was estimated at 20 TgC y-1. Net ecosystem carbon balance, which incorporated carbon losses from freshwater aquatic fluxes to nearshore waters and wildland fire emissions, was estimated as 0.34 TgC y-1 during the baseline period, offsetting 7% of anthropogenic emissions. We used a state and transition simulation model to estimate the response of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes to potential changes in climate, land use, and wildfire over a 50-year projection period (2012-2061). Total ecosystem carbon storage was projected to increase by 5% by the year 2061, but net ecosystem carbon balance was projected to decline by 35% due to climate change induced reductions in statewide net primary production and increased carbon losses from land use and land cover change. Our analysis indicates that the State of Hawaii would remain a net carbon sink overall, primarily because of ecosystem carbon sequestration on Hawaii Island, but predicted changes in climate and land use on Kauai and Oahu would convert these islands to net carbon sources. The Hawaii carbon assessment is part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems across the United States and should provide valuable information for setting research and policy priorities for sustainable carbon management strategies aimed at offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

The Coupling of Ecosystem Productivity and Water Availability in Dryland Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2014-12-01

Land cover and climatic change will alter biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide depending, in part, on feedbacks between biotic activity and water availability. Eddy covariance observations allow us to estimate ecosystem-scale productivity and respiration, and these datasets are now becoming sufficiently mature to advance understanding of these ecohydrological interactions. Here we use a network of sites in semiarid western North America representing gradients of water availability and functional plant type. We examine how precipitation (P) controls evapotranspiration (ET), net ecosystem production (NEP), and its component fluxes of ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP). Despite the high variability in seasonal and annual precipitation timing and amounts that we expect to influence ecosystem function, we find persistent overall relationships between P or ET and the fluxes of NEP, Reco and GEP across the network, indicating a commonality and resilience in ecosystem soil and plant response to water availability. But we also observe several important site differences such as prior seasonal legacy effects on subsequent fluxes which vary depending on dominant plant functional type. For example, multiyear droughts, episodic cool-season droughts, and hard winter freezes seem to affect the herbaceous species differently than the woody ones. Nevertheless, the overall, strong coupling between hydrologic and ecologic processes at these sites bolsters our ability to predict the response of dryland ecosystems to future precipitation change.

Simulating the impacts of land use in northwest Europe on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE): the role of arable ecosystems, grasslands and forest plantations in climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Abdalla, Mohamed; Saunders, Matthew; Hastings, Astley; Williams, Mike; Smith, Pete; Osborne, Bruce; Lanigan, Gary; Jones, Mike B

2013-11-01

In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social values for ecosystem services (SolVES): A GIS application for assessing, mapping, and quantifying the social values of ecosystem services-Documentation and user manual, version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Riegle, Jodi L.; Semmens, Darius J.

2010-01-01

In response to the need for incorporating quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem services assessments, the Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with Colorado State University, has developed a geographic information system application, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES). SolVES can be used to assess, map, and quantify the perceived social values of ecosystem services. SolVES derives a quantitative social values metric, the Value Index, from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public attitude and preference surveys. SolVES also generates landscape metrics, such as average elevation and distance to water, calculated from spatial data layers describing the underlying physical environment. Using kernel density calculations and zonal statistics, SolVES derives and maps the 10-point Value Index and reports landscape metrics associated with each index value for social value types such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and recreation. This can be repeated for various survey subgroups as distinguished by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses of the forests such as motorized recreation and logging for fuels reduction. The Value Index provides a basis of comparison within and among survey subgroups to consider the effect of social contexts on the valuation of ecosystem services. SolVES includes regression coefficients linking the predicted value (the Value Index) to landscape metrics. These coefficients are used to generate predicted social value maps using value transfer techniques for areas where primary survey data are not available. SolVES was developed, and will continue to be enhanced through future versions, as a public domain tool to enable decision makers and researchers to map the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding tradeoffs between different ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts.

How NASA Sees the Earth and Its Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

BrowndeColstoun, Eric

2012-01-01

NASA Research Addresses Broad Questions: (1) How are global ecosystems changing? (2) What changes are occurring in global land cover and land use and what are their causes? (3) How is the Earth s surface being transformed and how can such information be used to predict future changes? (4) What are the consequences of land cover and land use change for the sustainability of ecosystems and economic productivity? NASA uses the view from above to monitor our changing home. Different satellites help us study the various systems of the Earth. No one system can do it all. NASA tools and science helps us to understand how the planet is changing and what the changes mean for us.

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE PAGES

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.; ...

2017-09-18

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

Exploring local adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape - studies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, G. E.; Evans, T. G.; Kelly, M. W.; Padilla-Gamiño, J. L.; Blanchette, C. A.; Washburn, L.; Chan, F.; McManus, M. A.; Menge, B. A.; Gaylord, B.; Hill, T. M.; Sanford, E.; LaVigne, M.; Rose, J. M.; Kapsenberg, L.; Dutton, J. M.

2013-07-01

The California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), a temperate marine region dominated by episodic upwelling, is predicted to experience rapid environmental change in the future due to ocean acidification. Aragonite saturation state within the California Current System is predicted to decrease in the future, with near-permanent undersaturation conditions expected by the year 2050. Thus, the CCLME is a critical region to study due to the rapid rate of environmental change that resident organisms will experience and because of the economic and societal value of this coastal region. Recent efforts by a research consortium - the Ocean Margin Ecosystems Group for Acidification Studies (OMEGAS) - has begun to characterize a portion of the CCLME; both describing the mosaic of pH in coastal waters and examining the responses of key calcification-dependent benthic marine organisms to natural variation in pH and to changes in carbonate chemistry that are expected in the coming decades. In this review, we present the OMEGAS strategy of co-locating sensors and oceanographic observations with biological studies on benthic marine invertebrates, specifically measurements of functional traits such as calcification-related processes and genetic variation in populations that are locally adapted to conditions in a particular region of the coast. Highlighted in this contribution are (1) the OMEGAS sensor network that spans the west coast of the US from central Oregon to southern California, (2) initial findings of the carbonate chemistry amongst the OMEGAS study sites, (3) an overview of the biological data that describes the acclimatization and the adaptation capacity of key benthic marine invertebrates within the CCLME.

The Gulf of Mexico ecosystem, six years after the Macondo oil well blowout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joye, Samantha B.; Bracco, Annalisa; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Grosell, Martin; MacDonald, Ian R.; Cordes, Erik E.; Montoya, Joseph P.; Passow, Uta

2016-07-01

The Gulf of Mexico ecosystem is a hotspot for biological diversity and supports a number of industries, from tourism to fishery production to oil and gas exploration, that serve as the economic backbone of Gulf coast states. The Gulf is a natural hydrocarbon basin, rich with stores of oil and gas that lie in reservoirs deep beneath the seafloor. The natural seepage of hydrocarbons across the Gulf system is extensive and, thus, the system's biological components experience ephemeral, if not, frequent, hydrocarbon exposure. In contrast to natural seepage, which is diffuse and variable over space and time, the 2010 Macondo oil well blowout, represented an intense, focused hydrocarbon infusion to the Gulf's deepwaters. The Macondo blowout drove rapid shifts in microbial populations and activity, revealed unexpected phenomena, such as deepwater hydrocarbon plumes and marine "oil snow" sedimentation, and impacted the Gulf's pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Understanding the distribution and fate of Macondo oil was limited to some degree by an insufficient ability to predict the physical movement of water in the Gulf. In other words, the available physical oceanographic models lacked critical components. In the past six years, much has been learned about the physical oceanography of the Gulf, providing transformative knowledge that will improve the ability to predict the movement of water and the hydrocarbons they carry in future blowout scenarios. Similarly, much has been learned about the processing and fate of Macondo hydrocarbons. Here, we provide an overview of the distribution, fate and impacts of Macondo hydrocarbons and offer suggestions for future research to push the field of oil spill response research forward.

Differential Sensitivity to Drought in Six Central U.S. Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, A.; Carroll, C. J. W.; Denton, E. M.; La Pierre, K. J.; Wilcox, K. R.; Collins, S. L.; Smith, M.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems often vary dramatically in their responses to drought, but the reasons why are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central U.S. experienced the 4th largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity is inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 yrs) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per mm reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than 2-fold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing 40% reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE PAGES

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...

2018-09-01

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

PubMed

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

2018-04-27

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity

PubMed Central

Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption. PMID:20974946

USGS: Building on leadership in mapping oceans and coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, M.D.

2008-01-01

The US Geological Survey (USGS) offers continuously improving technologies for mapping oceans and coasts providing unique opportunity for characterizing the marine environment and to expand the understanding of coastal and ocean processes, resources, and hazards. USGS, which has been designated as a leader for mapping the Exclusive Economic Zone, has made an advanced strategic plan, Facing Tomorrow's Challenges- US Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007 to 2017. This plan focuses on innovative and transformational themes that serve key clients and customers, expand partnerships, and have long-term national impact. The plan includes several key science directions, including Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem Change, Energy and Minerals for America's Future, and A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program. USGS has also collaborated with diverse partners to incorporate mapping and monitoring within interdisciplinary research programs, addressing the system-scale response of coastal and marine ecosystems.

[Effects of global change on soil fauna diversity: A review].

PubMed

Wu, Ting-Juan

2013-02-01

Terrestrial ecosystem consists of aboveground and belowground components, whose interaction affects the ecosystem processes and functions. Soil fauna plays an important role in biogeochemical cycles. With the recognizing of the significance of soil fauna in ecosystem processes, increasing evidences demonstrated that global change has profound effects on soil faunima diversity. The alternation of land use type, the increasing temperature, and the changes in precipitation pattern can directly affect soil fauna diversity, while the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition can indirectly affect the soil fauna diversity by altering plant community composition, diversity, and nutrient contents. The interactions of different environmental factors can co-affect the soil fauna diversity. To understand the effects of different driving factors on soil fauna diversity under the background of climate change would facilitate us better predicting how the soil fauna diversity and related ecological processes changed in the future.

Hydraulic redistribution affects modeled carbon cycling via soil microbial activity and suppressed fire.

PubMed

Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Bible, Kenneth; Goulden, Michael L; Saleska, Scott R; Scott, Russell L; Cardon, Zoe G

2018-04-13

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water from moist to drier soils, through plant roots, occurs world-wide in seasonally dry ecosystems. Although the influence of HR on landscape hydrology and plant water use has been amply demonstrated, HR's effects on microbe-controlled processes sensitive to soil moisture, including carbon and nutrient cycling at ecosystem scales, remain difficult to observe in the field and have not been integrated into a predictive framework. We incorporated a representation of HR into the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and found the new model improved predictions of water, energy, and system-scale carbon fluxes observed by eddy covariance at four seasonally dry yet ecologically diverse temperate and tropical AmeriFlux sites. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were differentially stimulated by upward HR, resulting at times in increased plant demand outstripping increased nutrient supply. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were diminished by downward HR. Overall, inclusion of HR tended to increase modeled annual ecosystem uptake of CO 2 (or reduce annual CO 2 release to the atmosphere). Moreover, engagement of CLM4.5's ground-truthed fire module indicated that though HR increased modeled fuel load at all four sites, upward HR also moistened surface soil and hydrated vegetation sufficiently to limit the modeled spread of dry season fire and concomitant very large CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Historically, fire has been a dominant ecological force in many seasonally dry ecosystems, and intensification of soil drought and altered precipitation regimes are expected for seasonally dry ecosystems in the future. HR may play an increasingly important role mitigating development of extreme soil water potential gradients and associated limitations on plant and soil microbial activities, and may inhibit the spread of fire in seasonally dry ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

PubMed

Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

2015-02-01

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

PubMed

Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

2011-09-01

Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and nonagricultural recolonization zones along streams.

Fuel deposition rates of montane and subalpine conifers in the central Sierra Nevada, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Moore, P.E.

2010-01-01

Fire managers and researchers need information on fuel deposition rates to estimate future changes in fuel bed characteristics, determine when forests transition to another fire behavior fuel model, estimate future changes in fuel bed characteristics, and parameterize and validate ecosystem process models. This information is lacking for many ecosystems including the Sierra Nevada in California, USA. We investigated fuel deposition rates and stand characteristics of seven montane and four subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada. We collected foliage, miscellaneous bark and crown fragments, cones, and woody fuel classes from four replicate plots each in four stem diameter size classes for each species, for a total of 176 sampling sites. We used these data to develop predictive equations for each fuel class and diameter size class of each species based on stem and crown characteristics. There were consistent species and diameter class differences in the annual amount of foliage and fragments deposited. Foliage deposition rates ranged from just over 50 g m-2 year-1 in small diameter mountain hemlock stands to ???300 g m-2 year-1 for the three largest diameter classes of giant sequoia. The deposition rate for most woody fuel classes increased from the smallest diameter class stands to the largest diameter class stands. Woody fuel deposition rates varied among species as well. The rates for the smallest woody fuels ranged from 0.8 g m-2 year-1 for small diameter stands of Jeffrey pine to 126.9 g m-2 year-1 for very large diameter stands of mountain hemlock. Crown height and live crown ratio were the best predictors of fuel deposition rates for most fuel classes and species. Both characteristics reflect the amount of crown biomass including foliage and woody fuels. Relationships established in this study allow predictions of fuel loads to be made on a stand basis for each of these species under current and possible future conditions. These predictions can be used to estimate fuel treatment longevity, assist in determining fuel model transitions, and predict future changes in fuel bed characteristics.

Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

2015-12-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

Water- and Plant-Mediated Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes to Warming and Nitrogen Addition on the Songnen Grassland in Northeast China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Li; Guo, Rui; Zhu, Tingcheng; Niu, Xuedun; Guo, Jixun; Sun, Wei

2012-01-01

Background Understanding how grasslands are affected by a long-term increase in temperature is crucial to predict the future impact of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Additionally, it is not clear how the effects of global warming on grassland productivity are going to be altered by increased N deposition and N addition. Methodology/Principal Findings In-situ canopy CO2 exchange rates were measured in a meadow steppe subjected to 4-year warming and nitrogen addition treatments. Warming treatment reduced net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and increased ecosystem respiration (ER); but had no significant impacts on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). N addition increased NEE, ER and GEP. However, there were no significant interactions between N addition and warming. The variation of NEE during the four experimental years was correlated with soil water content, particularly during early spring, suggesting that water availability is a primary driver of carbon fluxes in the studied semi-arid grassland. Conclusion/Significance Ecosystem carbon fluxes in grassland ecosystems are sensitive to warming and N addition. In the studied water-limited grassland, both warming and N addition influence ecosystem carbon fluxes by affecting water availability, which is the primary driver in many arid and semiarid ecosystems. It remains unknown to what extent the long-term N addition would affect the turn-over of soil organic matter and the C sink size of this grassland. PMID:23028848

A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes

Treesearch

D. B. McWethy; P. E. Higuera; C. Whitlock; T. T. Veblen; D. M. J. S. Bowman; G. J. Cary; S. G. Haberle; R. E. Keane; B. D. Maxwell; M. S. McGlone; G. L. W. Perry; J. M. Wilmshurst

2013-01-01

The increased incidence of large fires around much of the world in recent decades raises questions about human and non-human drivers of fire and the likelihood of increased fire activity in the future. The purpose of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework for examining where human-set fires and feedbacks are likely to be most pronounced in temperate forests...

Near-future carbon dioxide levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Göran E.; Dixson, Danielle L.; Domenici, Paolo; McCormick, Mark I.; Sørensen, Christina; Watson, Sue-Ann; Munday, Philip L.

2012-03-01

Predicted future CO2 levels have been found to alter sensory responses and behaviour of marine fishes. Changes include increased boldness and activity, loss of behavioural lateralization, altered auditory preferences and impaired olfactory function. Impaired olfactory function makes larval fish attracted to odours they normally avoid, including ones from predators and unfavourable habitats. These behavioural alterations have significant effects on mortality that may have far-reaching implications for population replenishment, community structure and ecosystem function. However, the underlying mechanism linking high CO2 to these diverse responses has been unknown. Here we show that abnormal olfactory preferences and loss of behavioural lateralization exhibited by two species of larval coral reef fish exposed to high CO2 can be rapidly and effectively reversed by treatment with an antagonist of the GABA-A receptor. GABA-A is a major neurotransmitter receptor in the vertebrate brain. Thus, our results indicate that high CO2 interferes with neurotransmitter function, a hitherto unrecognized threat to marine populations and ecosystems. Given the ubiquity and conserved function of GABA-A receptors, we predict that rising CO2 levels could cause sensory and behavioural impairment in a wide range of marine species, especially those that tightly control their acid-base balance through regulatory changes in HCO3- and Cl- levels.

Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

2018-02-01

The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.

In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.

The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also provide a key set of posterior fungal parameters that can be further investigated and evaluated in future ECM studies.

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

2017-05-01

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

2014-07-01

The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems

PubMed Central

Wullschleger, Stan D.; Epstein, Howard E.; Box, Elgene O.; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Goswami, Santonu; Iversen, Colleen M.; Kattge, Jens; Norby, Richard J.; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Xu, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

Background Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Scope Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation. Conclusions Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait–environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be required if we are to overcome these and other shortcomings. PMID:24793697

MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burton, Andrew J.

2014-02-28

The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projectsmore » from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional and global climate systems. The broad variety of projects the MRC has supported gave us a unique opportunity to greatly improve our ability to predict the future health, composition and function of important agricultural and natural terrestrial ecosystems within the Midwestern Region.« less

Spatio-temporal patterns of major bacterial groups in alpine waters.

PubMed

Freimann, Remo; Bürgmann, Helmut; Findlay, Stuart E G; Robinson, Christopher T

2014-01-01

Glacial alpine landscapes are undergoing rapid transformation due to changes in climate. The loss of glacial ice mass has directly influenced hydrologic characteristics of alpine floodplains. Consequently, hyporheic sediment conditions are likely to change in the future as surface waters fed by glacial water (kryal) become groundwater dominated (krenal). Such environmental shifts may subsequently change bacterial community structure and thus potential ecosystem functioning. We quantitatively investigated the structure of major bacterial groups in glacial and groundwater-fed streams in three alpine floodplains during different hydrologic periods. Our results show the importance of several physico-chemical variables that reflect local geological characteristics as well as water source in structuring bacterial groups. For instance, Alpha-, Betaproteobacteria and Cytophaga-Flavobacteria were influenced by pH, conductivity and temperature as well as by inorganic and organic carbon compounds, whereas phosphorous compounds and nitrate showed specific influence on single bacterial groups. These results can be used to predict future bacterial group shifts, and potential ecosystem functioning, in alpine landscapes under environmental transformation.

Water use efficiency of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought

PubMed Central

Liu, Yibo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian; Wang, Shaoqiang; Wu, Xiaocui

2015-01-01

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg−1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. “Turning-points” were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity. PMID:26347998

Water use efficiency of China's terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought.

PubMed

Liu, Yibo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian; Wang, Shaoqiang; Wu, Xiaocui

2015-09-08

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China's terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg(-1) H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. "Turning-points" were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity.

LAI is the major cause of divergence in CO2 fertilization effect in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Luo, Y.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Huang, X.; Lin, G., Sr.

2017-12-01

Concentration-carbon feedback (β), also called CO2 fertilization effect, is an important feedback between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere to alleviate global climate change. However, models participating in C4MIP and CMIP5 predicted diverse CO2 fertilization effects under future CO2 inceasing scenarios. Hence identifing the key processes dominating the divergence of β in land surface models is of significance. We calculated CO2 fertilization effects from leaf level, canopy gross productivity level, net ecosystem productivity level and ecosystem carbon stock level in Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model. Our results identified LAI is the key factor dominating the divergence of β among C3 plants in CABLE model. Saturation of the ecosystem productivity to increasing CO2 is not only regulated by leaf-level response, but also the response of LAI to increasing CO2. The greatest variation among C3 plants at ecosystem level suggests that other processes such as different allocation patterns and soil carbon dynamics of various vegetation types are also responsible for the divergence. Our results indicate that processes regarding to LAI need to be better calibrated according to experiments and observations in order to better represent the response of ecosystem productivity to increasing CO2.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-01-01

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients.

PubMed

Craine, Joseph M; Elmore, Andrew J; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W Troy; Brookshire, E N J; Cramer, Michael D; Hasselquist, Niles J; Hobbie, Erik A; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J Marty; Mack, Michelle C; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R; McLauchlan, Kendra K; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B; Oliveira, Rafael S; Perakis, Steven S; Peri, Pablo L; Quesada, Carlos A; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A; Stevenson, Bryan A; Turner, Benjamin L; Viani, Ricardo A G; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-02-06

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled regeneration suitability is necessary but not sufficient to explain sagebrush presence. We conclude that future assessment of big sagebrush responses to climate change will need to account for responses of regenerative stages using a process-based understanding, such as provided by our model.

Predicting watershed post-fire sediment yield with the InVEST sediment retention model: Accuracy and uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Joel B.; McVay, Jason C.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vaillant, Nicole; Lowe, Scott

2015-01-01

Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how changing fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize erosion and sedimentation of burned watersheds. InVEST was developed by the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University (Tallis et al., 2014) and is a suite of GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., USLE – Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured postfire sediment yields available for many watersheds throughout the western USA from an existing, published large database. We show that the model can be parameterized in a relatively simple fashion to predict post-fire sediment yield with accuracy. Our ultimate goal is to use the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield at a watershed scale as a function of future wildfire conditions.

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests of the eastern U.S.

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Stagg, Camille L.

2014-01-01

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland terrestrial ecosystems.

Multiscale Framework for Assessing Critical Loads of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition for Aquatic Ecosystems in Wilderness Areas of the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanus, Leora; Clow, David; Saros, Jasmine; McMurray, Jill; Blett, Tamara; Sickman, James

2017-04-01

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems in Wilderness areas of the western United States are impacted by current and historic atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition associated with local and regional air pollution. Documented effects include elevated surface water nitrate concentrations, increased algal productivity, and changes in diatom species assemblages. A predictive framework was developed for sensitive high-elevation basins across the western United States at multiple spatial scales including the Rocky Mountain Region (Rockies), the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), and Yosemite (YOSE) and Sequoia & Kings Canyon (SEKI) National Parks. Spatial trends in critical loads of N deposition for nutrient enrichment of aquatic ecosystems were quantified and mapped using a geostatistical approach, with modeled N deposition, topography, vegetation, geology, and climate as potential explanatory variables. Multiple predictive models were created using various combinations of explanatory variables; this approach allowed for better quantification of uncertainty and identification of areas most sensitive to high atmospheric N deposition (> 3 kg N ha-1 yr-1). For multiple spatial scales, the lowest critical loads estimates (<1.5 + 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) occurred in high-elevation basins with steep slopes, sparse vegetation, and exposed bedrock and talus. Based on a nitrate threshold of 1 μmol L-1, estimated critical load exceedances (>1.5 + 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) correspond with areas of high N deposition and vary spatially ranging from less than 20% to over 40% of the study area for the Rockies, GYA, YOSE, and SEKI. These predictive models and maps identify sensitive aquatic ecosystems that may be impacted by excess atmospheric N deposition and can be used to help protect against future anthropogenic disturbance. The approach presented here may be transferable to other remote and protected high-elevation ecosystems at multiple spatial scales that are sensitive to adverse effects of pollutant loading in the US and around the world.

Amazon rainforest responses to elevated CO2: Deriving model-based hypotheses for the AmazonFACE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rammig, A.; Fleischer, K.; Lapola, D.; Holm, J.; Hoosbeek, M.

2017-12-01

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is assumed to have a stimulating effect ("CO2 fertilization effect") on forest growth and resilience. Empirical evidence, however, for the existence and strength of such a tropical CO2 fertilization effect is scarce and thus a major impediment for constraining the uncertainties in Earth System Model projections. The implications of the tropical CO2 effect are far-reaching, as it strongly influences the global carbon and water cycle, and hence future global climate. In the scope of the Amazon Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment, we addressed these uncertainties by assessing the CO2 fertilization effect at ecosystem scale. AmazonFACE is the first FACE experiment in an old-growth, highly diverse tropical rainforest. Here, we present a priori model-based hypotheses for the experiment derived from a set of 12 ecosystem models. Model simulations identified key uncertainties in our understanding of limiting processes and derived model-based hypotheses of expected ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 that can directly be tested during the experiment. Ambient model simulations compared satisfactorily with in-situ measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes, as well as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks. Models consistently predicted an increase in photosynthesis with elevated CO2, which declined over time due to developing limitations. The conversion of enhanced photosynthesis into biomass, and hence ecosystem carbon sequestration, varied strongly among the models due to different assumptions on nutrient limitation. Models with flexible allocation schemes consistently predicted an increased investment in belowground structures to alleviate nutrient limitation, in turn accelerating turnover rates of soil organic matter. The models diverged on the prediction for carbon accumulation after 10 years of elevated CO2, mainly due to contrasting assumptions in their phosphorus cycle representation. These differences define the expected response ratio to elevated CO2 at the AmazonFACE site and identify priorities for experimental work and model development.

Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage.

PubMed

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard P; Mandle, Lisa; Sim, Sarah; Johnson, Justin; Butnar, Isabela; Milà I Canals, Llorenç; Eichelberger, Bradley A; Ramler, Ivan; Mueller, Carina; McLachlan, Nikolaus; Yousefi, Anahita; King, Henry; Kareiva, Peter M

2015-06-16

The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.

Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

PubMed Central

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard P.; Mandle, Lisa; Sim, Sarah; Johnson, Justin; Butnar, Isabela; Milà i Canals, Llorenç; Eichelberger, Bradley A.; Ramler, Ivan; Mueller, Carina; McLachlan, Nikolaus; Yousefi, Anahita; King, Henry; Kareiva, Peter M.

2015-01-01

The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation. PMID:26082547

Linking remote-sensing and ecosystem services modeling to support and assess management for regenerative grazing in the South Gobi, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Kowal, V. A.; Sharp, R.

2017-12-01

Managing and monitoring supply chain sustainability is a major challenge and opportunity for business, especially in rangelands, heavily managed and often degraded natural systems that provide significant resources and raw materials for production. One of the largest and most threatened rangeland systems in the world is in Mongolia, which has seen a rapid rise in grazing pressure due to increasing global demand for cashmere along with privatization of a formerly government-run livestock industry. A new opportunity is emerging for remote-sensing to improve the management decisions of the producers and their incentive-setters, leading to a more sustainable rangeland system and better outcomes for biodiversity and people in this unique and imperiled landscape. Oyu Tolgoi (OT), the Mongolian subsidiary of the mining company Rio Tinto, in cooperation with Kering, an apparel conglomerate that sources cashmere from the region, are providing financial incentives to improve grazing patterns through a Sustainable Cashmere program, in order to restore the degraded rangeland ecosystem in the Gobi desert region. We present a framework and approach for predicting the effect of changing grazing practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services, which we are developing into decision-support tools for OT, Kering, and their local partner Wildlife Conservation Society to quantify the impacts of their programs and where these interventions will have greatest benefit. Our approach integrates remote-sensing and ecosystem modeling to scale up field monitoring data and forecast future impacts. Our rangeland production model, based on the soil-vegetation model CENTURY and the livestock model GRAZPLAN, predicts biomass production and plant species composition changes, and can feed into ecosystem services models such as soil retention and water regulation in the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) software suite. This presents a significant advance in ecosystem services modeling, moving toward continuous functions related to remotely-sensed ecosystem condition or quality rather than categorical land cover class. Preliminary findings suggest that categorical approaches may underestimate ecosystem services loss from degradation or gain from restoration by a factor of 2-5.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi slow soil carbon cycling.

PubMed

Averill, Colin; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-08-01

Respiration of soil organic carbon is one of the largest fluxes of CO2 on earth. Understanding the processes that regulate soil respiration is critical for predicting future climate. Recent work has suggested that soil carbon respiration may be reduced by competition for nitrogen between symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi that associate with plant roots and free-living microbial decomposers, which is consistent with increased soil carbon storage in ectomycorrhizal ecosystems globally. However, experimental tests of the mycorrhizal competition hypothesis are lacking. Here we show that ectomycorrhizal roots and hyphae decrease soil carbon respiration rates by up to 67% under field conditions in two separate field exclusion experiments, and this likely occurs via competition for soil nitrogen, an effect larger than 2 °C soil warming. These findings support mycorrhizal competition for nitrogen as an independent driver of soil carbon balance and demonstrate the need to understand microbial community interactions to predict ecosystem feedbacks to global climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Carbon Cycle Model of a Hawaiian Barrier Reef under Rising Ocean Acidification and Temperature Conditions of the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drupp, P. S.; Mackenzie, F. T.; De Carlo, E. H.; Guidry, M.

2015-12-01

A CO2-carbonic acid system biogeochemical box model (CRESCAM, Coral Reef and Sediment Carbonate Model) of the barrier reef flat in Kaneohe Bay, Hawai'i was developed to determine how increasing temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) content of open ocean source waters, resulting from rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions and ocean acidification, affect the CaCO3budget of coral reef ecosystems. CRESCAM consists of 17 reservoirs and 59 fluxes, including a surface water column domain, a two-layer permeable sediment domain, and a coral framework domain. Physical, chemical, and biological processes such as advection, carbonate precipitation/dissolution, and net ecosystem production and calcification were modeled. The initial model parameters were constrained by experimental and field data from previous coral reef studies, mostly in Kaneohe Bay over the past 50 years. The field studies include data collected by our research group for both the water column and sediment-porewater system.The model system, initially in a quasi-steady state condition estimated for the early 21st century, was perturbed using future projections to the year 2100 of the Anthropocene of atmospheric CO2 ­concentrations, temperature, and source water DIC. These perturbations were derived from the most recent (2013) IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which predict CO2 atmospheric concentrations and temperature anomalies out to 2100. A series of model case studies were also performed whereby one or more parameters (e.g., coral calcification response to declining surface water pH) were altered to investigate potential future outcomes. Our model simulations predict that although the Kaneohe Bay barrier reef will likely see a significant decline in NEC over the coming century, it is unlikely to reach a state of net erosion - a result contrary to several global coral reef model projections. In addition, we show that depending on the future response of NEP and NEC to OA and rising temperatures, the surface waters could switch from being a present-day source of CO2 to the atmosphere to a future sink. This ecosystem specific model can be applied to any reef system where data are available to constrain the initial model state and is a powerful tool for examining future changes in coral reef carbon budgets.

Historical Trends in pH and Carbonate Biogeochemistry on the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowell, S. E.; Foster, G. L.; Ries, J. B.; Castillo, K. D.; de la Vega, E.; Tyrrell, T.; Donald, H. K.; Chalk, T. B.

2018-04-01

Coral reefs are important ecosystems that are increasingly negatively impacted by human activities. Understanding which anthropogenic stressors play the most significant role in their decline is vital for the accurate prediction of future trends in coral reef health and for effective mitigation of these threats. Here we present annually resolved boron and carbon isotope measurements of two cores capturing the past 90 years of growth of the tropical reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea from the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System. The pairing of these two isotope systems allows us to parse the reconstructed pH change into relative changes in net ecosystem productivity and net ecosystem calcification between the two locations. This approach reveals that the relationship between seawater pH and coral calcification, at both a colony and ecosystem level, is complex and cannot simply be modeled as linear or even positive. This study also underscores both the utility of coupled δ11B-δ13C measurements in tracing past biogeochemical cycling in coral reefs and the complexity of this cycling relative to the open ocean.

Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control.

PubMed

Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Sanchez-Canales, María; Terrado, Marta; López, Alfredo; Elorza, F Javier; Ziv, Guy; Acuña, Vicenç; Schuhmacher, Marta

2013-08-01

The Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and such changes impact the capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and services to human society. The predicted future scenarios for this region present an increased frequency of floods and extended droughts, especially at the Iberian Peninsula. This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on the water provisioning and erosion control services in the densely populated Mediterranean Llobregat river basin of. The assessment of ecosystem services and their mapping at the basin scale identify the current pressures on the river basin including the source area in the Pyrenees Mountains. Drinking water provisioning is expected to decrease between 3 and 49%, while total hydropower production will decrease between 5 and 43%. Erosion control will be reduced by up to 23%, indicating that costs for dredging the reservoirs as well as for treating drinking water will also increase. Based on these data, the concept for an appropriate quantification and related spatial visualization of ecosystem service is elaborated and discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

2011-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-04-01

Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberg, David; Soja, Amber; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Boreal systems contain the largest pool of terrestrial carbon, and Russia holds 2/3 of the global boreal forests. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Meteorological parameters influence fire danger and fire is a catalyst for ecosystem change. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. Our data consists of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)-derived fire weather indices (FWI) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-derived FWI on a domain from 50°N-80°N latitude and 70°E-170°W longitude and the fire season from April through October for the years of 1999, 2002, and 2004. Both of these are calculated using the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) FWI, which is based on local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The large-scale (1°) LaRC product uses NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GEOS-4/GPCP) data to calculate FWI. CFS Natural Resources Canada uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to interpolate NCDC station data and calculate FWI. We compare the LaRC GEOS- 4/GPCP FWI and CFS NCDC FWI based on their fraction of 1° grid boxes that contain satellite-derived fire counts and area burned to the domain total number of 1° grid boxes with a common FWI category (very low to extreme). These are separated by International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 1°x1° resolution vegetation types to determine and compare fire regimes in each FWI/ecosystem class and to estimate the fraction of each of the 18 IGBP ecosystems burned, which are dependent on the FWI. On days with fire counts, the domain total of 1°x1° grid boxes with and without daily fire counts and area burned are totaled. The fraction of 1° grid boxes with fire counts and area burned to the total number of 1° grid boxes having common FWI category and vegetation type are accumulated, and a daily mean for the burning season is calculated. The mean fire counts and mean area burned plots appear to be well related. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to assess fire weather danger and fire regimes, so these data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data. Specifically, we related large-scale fire weather, area burned, and the amount of fire-induced ecosystem change. Both the LaRC and CFS FWI showed gradual linear increase in fraction of grid boxes with fire counts and area burned with increasing FWI category, with an exponential increase in the higher FWI categories in some cases, for the majority of the vegetation types. Our analysis shows a direct correlation between increased fire activity and increased FWI, independent of time or the severity of the fire season. During normal and extreme fire seasons, we noticed the fraction of fire counts and area burned per 1° grid box increased with increasing FWI rating. Given this analysis, we are confident large-scale weather and climate data, in this case from the GEOS-4 reanalysis and the GPCP data sets, can be used to accurately assess future fire potential. This increases confidence in the ability of large-scale IPCC weather and climate scenarios to predict future fire regimes in boreal regions.

Linking the Response of Annual Grasslands to Warming and Altered Rainfall Across Scales of Gene Expression, Species, and Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Bernard, S. M.; Castanha, C.; Fischer, M. L.; Hopkins, F. M.; Placella, S. A.; St. Clair, S. B.; Salve, R.; Sudderth, E.; Herman, D.; Ackerly, D.; Firestone, M. K.

2007-12-01

Climate change can influence terrestrial ecosystems at multiple biological levels: gene expression, species, and ecosystem. We are studying California grassland mesocosms with seven annual species (five grasses, two forbs) that were started in 2005. In the 2006-2007 growing season, they were exposed to three rainfall treatments (297, 552, and 867 mm y-1) and soil and air temperature (ambient and elevated +4oC) in replicated greenhouses. This presentation will combine plant and ecosystem level results with transcript level analyses associated with key enzymes, such as rubisco and glutamine synthetase (GS). Because rainfall is the dominant climate variable for most processes in this Mediterranean ecosystem, the effect of warming was strongly mediated by rainfall. In fact, we saw significant interactions between temperature and rainfall treatments at all three biological levels. For example, at the ecosystem level, warming led to a decrease in aboveground and total NPP under low rainfall, and an increase under high rainfall. For the dominant species, Avena barbata, warming had no effect under high rainfall, but suppressed Avena NPP in low rainfall. At the same time, warmer, wetter conditions accelerated Avena flowering by almost 15 days. This shift in phenology was presaged by observations at the transcript level. Specifically, in the high temperature, high rainfall treatment, the levels of mRNAs for RbcS and GS2 (encoding the small subunit of rubisco and the chloroplastic isoform of GS, respectively) declined while GS1 (encoding the cytosolic isoform of GS) was upregulated several weeks before heading. The transcript level response (along with soil and plant nitrogen data) indicated the leaf had switched from a carbon and nitrogen sink to a source - consistent with more mature plant function and earlier flowering. Soil CO2 respiration also showed strong rain-by-temperature interactions that were due mainly to changes in root response (respiration and/or exudates) rather than in microbial respiration. Overall, the pervasive rain-by-temperature interactions mean that it may be very difficult to predict the effect of warming alone, without accounting for changes in precipitation (in our Mediterranean system). While predictions of warming of 3-6°C in the next 100 years are fairly certain, changes in precipitation are much more uncertain, with some forecasts drier and others wetter for a given location. We suggest that uncertainty about future precipitation and the interacting influences of temperature and moisture on ecosystems are currently key limitations in predicting ecosystem response to climate change, particularly in Mediterranean ecosystems such as the one studied here.

A framework to assess biogeochemical response to ecosystem disturbance using nutrient partitioning ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kranabetter, J. Marty; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Enders, Sara K.; Fraterrigo, Jennifer M.; Higuera, Philip E.; Morris, Jesse L.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Barnes, Rebecca; Buma, Brian; Gavin, Daniel G.; Gerhart, Laci M.; Gillson, Lindsey; Hietz, Peter; Mack, Michelle C.; McNeil, Brenden; Perakis, Steven

2016-01-01

Disturbances affect almost all terrestrial ecosystems, but it has been difficult to identify general principles regarding these influences. To improve our understanding of the long-term consequences of disturbance on terrestrial ecosystems, we present a conceptual framework that analyzes disturbances by their biogeochemical impacts. We posit that the ratio of soil and plant nutrient stocks in mature ecosystems represents a characteristic site property. Focusing on nitrogen (N), we hypothesize that this partitioning ratio (soil N: plant N) will undergo a predictable trajectory after disturbance. We investigate the nature of this partitioning ratio with three approaches: (1) nutrient stock data from forested ecosystems in North America, (2) a process-based ecosystem model, and (3) conceptual shifts in site nutrient availability with altered disturbance frequency. Partitioning ratios could be applied to a variety of ecosystems and successional states, allowing for improved temporal scaling of disturbance events. The generally short-term empirical evidence for recovery trajectories of nutrient stocks and partitioning ratios suggests two areas for future research. First, we need to recognize and quantify how disturbance effects can be accreting or depleting, depending on whether their net effect is to increase or decrease ecosystem nutrient stocks. Second, we need to test how altered disturbance frequencies from the present state may be constructive or destructive in their effects on biogeochemical cycling and nutrient availability. Long-term studies, with repeated sampling of soils and vegetation, will be essential in further developing this framework of biogeochemical response to disturbance.

Understanding the biological underpinnings of ecohydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Jenerette, D.; Tissue, D. T.; Breshears, D. D.; Saleska, S. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents a challenge for predicting ecosystem response, as multiple factors drive both the physical and life processes happening on the land surface and their interactions result in a complex, evolving coupled system. For example, changes in surface temperature and precipitation influence near-surface hydrology through impacts on system energy balance, affecting a range of physical processes. These changes in the salient features of the environment affect biological processes and elicit responses along the hierarchy of life (biochemistry to community composition). Many of these structural or process changes can alter patterns of soil water-use and influence land surface characteristics that affect local climate. Of the many features that affect our ability to predict the future dynamics of ecosystems, it is this hierarchical response of life that creates substantial complexity. Advances in the ability to predict or understand aspects of demography help describe thresholds in coupled ecohydrological system. Disentangling the physical and biological features that underlie land surface dynamics following disturbance are allowing a better understanding of the partitioning of water in the time-course of recovery. Better predicting the timing of phenology and key seasonal events allow for a more accurate description of the full functional response of the land surface to climate. In addition, explicitly considering the hierarchical structural features of life are helping to describe complex time-dependent behavior in ecosystems. However, despite this progress, we have yet to build an ability to fully account for the generalization of the main features of living systems into models that can describe ecohydrological processes, especially acclimation, assembly and adaptation. This is unfortunate, given that many key ecosystem services are functions of these coupled co-evolutionary processes. To date, both the lack of controlled measurements and experimentation has precluded determination of sufficient theoretical development. Understanding the land-surface response and feedback to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the coupling of ecological and hydrological processes and an expansion of theory from the life sciences to appropriately contribute to the broader Earth system science goal.

Throughfall Displacement Experiment (TDE) Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project Data Archive

DOE Data Explorer

Hanson, Paul J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Amthor, Jeffrey S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Baldocchi, Dennis D. [University of California, Berkeley; Grant, Robert F. [University of Alberta, Canada; Hartley, Anne E. [Ohio State University; Hui, Dafeng [University of Oklahoma; Hunt, Jr., E. Raymond [Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Johnson, Dale W. [University of Nevada, Reno; Kimball, John S. [University of Montana; King, Anthony W. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; McNulty, Steven G. [Southern Global Change Program, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Sun, Ge [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (USA); Thornton, Peter E. [University of Montana; Wang, Shusen [Geomatics Canada - Canada Centre for Remote Sensing Natural Resources, Canada; Williams, Matthew [University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Wilson, Kell B. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce; Wullschleger, Stanley D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2002-08-01

This archive provides and documents data from a project whose purpose is to compare the output of various ecosystem models when they are run with the data from the Throughfall Displacement Experiment (TDE) at Walker Branch Watershed, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The project is not designed to determine which models are "best" for diagnosis (i.e., explaining the current functioning of the system) or prognosis (i.e., predicting the response of the system to future conditions), but, rather, to clarify similarities and differences among the models and their components, so that all models can be improved. Data archive: ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/tdemodel/. TDE data archive web site: http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp078a/ndp078a.html.

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

The ARGO Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2004

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

international Argo practices. Data appropriate for research applications and for comparison with climate change models are not available for several...global ocean heat and fresh water storage and the detection and attribution of climate change . These presentations can be accessed at http...stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a

Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes: A Spatially Explicit Approach to Support Sustainable Soil Management

PubMed Central

Crossman, Neville D.; MacEwan, Richard J.; Wallace, D. Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T.

2014-01-01

Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km2 in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24616632

Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes: a spatially explicit approach to support sustainable soil management.

PubMed

Forouzangohar, Mohsen; Crossman, Neville D; MacEwan, Richard J; Wallace, D Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T

2014-01-01

Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km(2) in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes.

Air-Pollution-Mediated Changes in Alpine Ecosystems and Ecotones.

PubMed

Rusek, Josef

1993-08-01

Soil biological parameters (e.g., Collembola), soil types, soil chemical parameters (pH, humus substances), and plant communities were studied in different ecosystems and ecotones in alpine, subalpine, and spruce forest zones in the Tatra National Park, Slovak Republic. The preliminary, selected data, based on a long-term research program, showed a high sensitivity of some alpine ecotones and ecosystems to long-distance transported acid deposits. The changes in different ecosystem parameters since 1977 were more extensive in alpine grasslands on limestone than on granite. The greatest soil pH decrease was in the plant communities Festucetum versicoloris (-1.5 pH), Geranio-Alchemilletum crinitae (-1.32 pH), and Saxifragetum perdurantis (-1.25 pH), which are restricted to places with snow accumulation and water runoff gullies. In these ecosystems the greatest changes occurred in the leaching of humus substances. Some formerly less abundant and rare soil animals restricted to acid bedrock became dominant in some ecosystems on limestone as well as on granite; other formerly dominant species disappeared from the entire study area (e.g., Folsomia alpina). The aerial extent of some ecosystems changed substantially since 1977, and their surrounding ecotones moved into the space formerly occupied by one of the adjacent ecosystems. These changes are detectable by remote-sensing methods. In Central European mountains, strongly affected by global and regional industrial air pollution (e.g., Krusne Hory, Krkonose, Beskydy), spruce forests started to die back from higher to lower mountain elevations. The effects of air pollution on alpine and subalpine vegetation were not studied there. Strong alterations in alpine ecosystems and ecotones were detected by the author during long-term studies in the High Tatra Mountains, and I suggest that subalpine and mountain forest belts will be affected here in the near future as they were in the more polluted Central European mountains. The ecosystems and ecotones in higher alpine zones are likely to be affected earlier than the ecosystems at lower altitudes. Detection of ecosystem alteration in the alpine zone may be used for prediction of acidification processes and global change in ecosystems at lower altitudes. The consequences of global climate change are predictable by monitoring changes in the extent of some ecosystems located in discrete mountain geomorphological units (e.g., karstic sinkholes, water runoff gullies, wind shadows, ridges exposed to wind, etc.) and ecotones among them because of their dependence on duration of snow cover, water supply, wind and frost exposure, and other abiotic and biotic factors. © 1993 by the Ecological Society of America.

Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties.

PubMed

Schramski, John R; Dell, Anthony I; Grady, John M; Sibly, Richard M; Brown, James H

2015-02-24

Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude-from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers-as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.

Using landscape limnology to classify freshwater ecosystems for multi-ecosystem management and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary T.; Wagner, Tyler; Stow, Craig A.

2010-01-01

Governmental entities are responsible for managing and conserving large numbers of lake, river, and wetland ecosystems that can be addressed only rarely on a case-by-case basis. We present a system for predictive classification modeling, grounded in the theoretical foundation of landscape limnology, that creates a tractable number of ecosystem classes to which management actions may be tailored. We demonstrate our system by applying two types of predictive classification modeling approaches to develop nutrient criteria for eutrophication management in 1998 north temperate lakes. Our predictive classification system promotes the effective management of multiple ecosystems across broad geographic scales by explicitly connecting management and conservation goals to the classification modeling approach, considering multiple spatial scales as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, and acknowledging the hierarchical structure of freshwater ecosystems. Such a system is critical for adaptive management of complex mosaics of freshwater ecosystems and for balancing competing needs for ecosystem services in a changing world.

Quantifying the historic and future distribution of fire in Alaskan tundra ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Duffy, P. A.

2012-12-01

During the past 60 years fire has been relatively rare and small in size within tundra ecosystems. However, historical observations and paleoecological evidence indicates that fire regimes vary widely across Alaskan tundra, in both space and time. These lines of evidence suggest that fire occupies a highly specified niche or ecological space in Alaskan tundra, which may change significantly with future climate warming. The objective of this research was to quantify the relationships between fire occurrence and different seasonal climate variables, and to begin to make inferences about future distributions of fire across the tundra landscape. The results of this research will ultimately contribute to the goal of summarizing the linkages that exist among climate, vegetation, and fire in the historical record, and for making predictions concerning fire disturbance in tundra ecosystems throughout the next century. Historic tundra fires occurred non-randomly across space, and a relationship exists between fire occurrence and warm, dry climates. We quantified this relationship with generalized boosting models (GBM) using datasets of downscaled temperature and precipitation (2 km, 1971-2000), and historic records of tundra area burned (1950-2010). The GBM used six seasonal climate variables, focused on growing season temperature and precipitation, to predict the probability of fire occurrence over the 1950-2010 time period. To understand implications of these historic relationships given ongoing climate warming, we constructed future climatologies of temperature and precipitation for the five GCMs which performed best in Alaska under the IPCC AR4 A1B (middle-of-the-road) emissions scenario for the time period 2021-2050. The GBM performed well predicting the observed spatial distribution of tundra area burned, capturing key regions which experienced the most fire activity from 1950-2010. The mean temperature of the warmest month (MeanMaxTemp) was the most influential variable in the GBM, and partial dependence plots revealed a strong non-linear relationship between the probability of fire and MeanMaxTemp, with a distinct temperature threshold of approximately 12.0 oC. Climate projections in Alaskan tundra (2021-2050) from the five GCMs was on average 2.1 oC warmer (SD = 0.3 oC) than the 1971-2000 mean. During the 1971-2000 period, 62% of tundra existed above the 12.0 oC threshold. In contrast, four of the five GCMs predicted more tundra area will exist above this same temperature threshold during the 2021-2050 period (mean=77%, min=48%, max=93%), with large increases occurring on the North Slope. Ongoing work includes applying this GBM to future climate conditions to provide quantitative estimates of future tundra burning. Our results suggest that the ecological space that currently supports tundra burning will become more common during the next century. A more flammable tundra landscape could contribute to increased land surface temperatures through feedbacks between fire, increased carbon flux from the soil to atmosphere, and decreased albedo through vegetation succession. Given the rapid environmental changes projected for the Arctic throughout the next century, it is imperative that we understand when and where fire regimes are changing, not only across Alaskan tundra but across the global tundra biome as well.

Exploring local adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape - studies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, G. E.; Evans, T. G.; Kelly, M. W.; Padilla-Gamiño, J. L.; Blanchette, C. A.; Washburn, L.; Chan, F.; McManus, M. A.; Menge, B. A.; Gaylord, B.; Hill, T. M.; Sanford, E.; LaVigne, M.; Rose, J. M.; Kapsenberg, L.; Dutton, J. M.

2014-02-01

The California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), a temperate marine region dominated by episodic upwelling, is predicted to experience rapid environmental change in the future due to ocean acidification. The aragonite saturation state within the California Current System is predicted to decrease in the future with near-permanent undersaturation conditions expected by the year 2050. Thus, the CCLME is a critical region to study due to the rapid rate of environmental change that resident organisms will experience and because of the economic and societal value of this coastal region. Recent efforts by a research consortium - the Ocean Margin Ecosystems Group for Acidification Studies (OMEGAS) - has begun to characterize a portion of the CCLME; both describing the spatial mosaic of pH in coastal waters and examining the responses of key calcification-dependent benthic marine organisms to natural variation in pH and to changes in carbonate chemistry that are expected in the coming decades. In this review, we present the OMEGAS strategy of co-locating sensors and oceanographic observations with biological studies on benthic marine invertebrates, specifically measurements of functional traits such as calcification-related processes and genetic variation in populations that are locally adapted to conditions in a particular region of the coast. Highlighted in this contribution are (1) the OMEGAS sensor network that spans the west coast of the US from central Oregon to southern California, (2) initial findings of the carbonate chemistry amongst the OMEGAS study sites, and (3) an overview of the biological data that describes the acclimatization and the adaptation capacity of key benthic marine invertebrates within the CCLME.

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

Direct and indirect climatic drivers of biotic interactions: ice-cover and carbon runoff shaping Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus and brown trout Salmo trutta competitive asymmetries.

PubMed

Ulvan, Eva M; Finstad, Anders G; Ugedal, Ola; Berg, Ole Kristian

2012-01-01

One of the major challenges in ecological climate change impact science is to untangle the climatic effects on biological interactions and indirect cascading effects through different ecosystems. Here, we test for direct and indirect climatic drivers on competitive impact of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) on brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) along a climate gradient in central Scandinavia, spanning from coastal to high-alpine environments. As a measure of competitive impact, trout food consumption was measured using (137)Cs tracer methodology both during the ice-covered and ice-free periods, and contrasted between lakes with or without char coexistence along the climate gradient. Variation in food consumption between lakes was best described by a linear mixed effect model including a three-way interaction between the presence/absence of Arctic char, season and Secchi depth. The latter is proxy for terrestrial dissolved organic carbon run-off, strongly governed by climatic properties of the catchment. The presence of Arctic char had a negative impact on trout food consumption. However, this effect was stronger during ice-cover and in lakes receiving high carbon load from the catchment, whereas no effect of water temperature was evident. In conclusion, the length of the ice-covered period and the export of allochthonous material from the catchment are likely major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of the competitive interaction between two freshwater lake top predators. While future climatic scenarios predict shorter ice-cover duration, they also predict increased carbon run-off. The present study therefore emphasizes the complexity of cascading ecosystem effects in future effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Past, present and future of host–parasite co-extinctions

PubMed Central

Strona, Giovanni

2015-01-01

Human induced ecosystem alterations and climate change are expected to drive several species to extinction. In this context, the attention of public opinion, and hence conservationists' efforts, are often targeted towards species having emotional, recreational and/or economical value. This tendency may result in a high number of extinctions happening unnoticed. Among these, many could involve parasites. Several studies have highlighted various reasons why we should care about this, that go far beyond the fact that parasites are amazingly diverse. A growing corpus of evidence suggests that parasites contribute much to ecosystems both in terms of biomass and services, and the seemingly paradoxical idea that a healthy ecosystem is one rich in parasites is becoming key to the whole concept of parasite conservation. Although various articles have covered different aspects of host–parasite co-extinctions, I feel that some important conceptual issues still need to be formally addressed. In this review, I will attempt at clarifying some of them, with the aim of providing researchers with a unifying conceptual framework that could help them designing future studies. In doing this, I will try to draw a more clear distinction between the (co-)evolutionary and the ecological dimensions of co-extinction studies, since the ongoing processes that are putting parasites at risk now operate at a scale that is extremely different from the one that has shaped host–parasite networks throughout million years of co-evolution. Moreover, I will emphasize how the complexity of direct and indirect effects of parasites on ecosystems makes it much challenging to identify the mechanisms possibly leading to co-extinction events, and to predict how such events will affect ecosystems in the long run. PMID:26835251

Temperature response of respiration across heterogeneous microtopography in the Arctic tundra, Utqiaġvik, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkman, E.; Zona, D.; Tang, Y.; Gioli, B.; Lipson, D.; Oechel, W. C.

2017-12-01

The response of ecosystem respiration to warming in the Arctic is not well constrained, partly due to the presence of ice-wedge polygons in continuous permafrost areas. These formations lead to substantial variation in vegetation, soil moisture, water table, and active layer depth over the meter scale that can drive respiratory carbon loss. Accurate calculations of in-situ temperature sensitivities (Q10) are vital for the prediction of future Arctic emissions, and while the eddy covariance technique has commonly been used to determine the diurnal and season patterns of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, the lack of suitable dark periods in the Arctic summer has limited our ability to estimate and interpret ecosystem respiration. To therefore improve our understanding of and define controls on ecosystem respiration, we directly compared CO2 fluxes measured from automated chambers across the main local polygonised landscape forms (high and low centers, polygon rims, and polygon troughs) to estimates from an adjacent eddy covariance tower. Low-centered polygons and polygon troughs had the greatest cumulative respiration rates, and ecosystem type appeared to be the most important explanatory variable for these rates. Despite the difference in absolute respiration rates, Q10 was surprisingly similar across all microtopographic features, despite contrasting water levels and vegetation types. Conversely, Q10 varied temporally, with higher values during the early and late summer and lower values during the peak growing season. Finally, good agreement was found between chamber and tower based Q10 estimates during the peak growing season. Overall, this study suggests that it is possible to simplify estimates of the temperature sensitivity of respiration across heterogeneous landscapes, but that seasonal changes in Q10 should be incorporated into current and future model simulations.

Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

PubMed

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

2017-08-01

Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning of Cerrado ecosystems.

PubMed

Bustamante, M M C; Nardoto, G B; Pinto, A S; Resende, J C F; Takahashi, F S C; Vieira, L C G

2012-08-01

The Cerrado Domain comprises one of the most diverse savannas in the world and is undergoing a rapid loss of habitats due to changes in fire regimes and intense conversion of native areas to agriculture. We reviewed data on the biogeochemical functioning of Cerrado ecosystems and evaluated the potential impacts of regional climate changes. Variation in temperature extremes and in total amount of rainfall and altitude throughout the Cerrado determines marked differences in the composition of species. Cerrado ecosystems are controlled by interactions between water and nutrient availability. In general, nutrient cycles (N, P and base cations) are very conservative, while litter, microbial and plant biomass are important stocks. In terms of C cycling, root systems and especially the soil organic matter are the most important stocks. Typical cerrado ecosystems function as C sinks on an annual basis, although they work as source of C to the atmosphere close to the end of the dry season. Fire is an important factor altering stocks and fluxes of C and nutrients. Predicted changes in temperature, amount and distribution of precipitation vary according to Cerrado sub-regions with more marked changes in the northeastern part of the domain. Higher temperatures, decreases in rainfall with increase in length of the dry season could shift net ecosystem exchanges from C sink to source of C and might intensify burning, reducing nutrient stocks. Interactions between the heterogeneity in the composition and abundance of biological communities throughout the Cerrado Domain and current and future changes in land use make it difficult to project the impacts of future climate scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales and new modeling approaches are needed.

Microbial regulation of terrestrial nitrous oxide formation: understanding the biological pathways for prediction of emission rates.

PubMed

Hu, Hang-Wei; Chen, Deli; He, Ji-Zheng

2015-09-01

The continuous increase of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere due to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen input in agriculture has become a global concern. In recent years, identification of the microbial assemblages responsible for soil N2O production has substantially advanced with the development of molecular technologies and the discoveries of novel functional guilds and new types of metabolism. However, few practical tools are available to effectively reduce in situ soil N2O flux. Combating the negative impacts of increasing N2O fluxes poses considerable challenges and will be ineffective without successfully incorporating microbially regulated N2O processes into ecosystem modeling and mitigation strategies. Here, we synthesize the latest knowledge of (i) the key microbial pathways regulating N2O production and consumption processes in terrestrial ecosystems and the critical environmental factors influencing their occurrence, and (ii) the relative contributions of major biological pathways to soil N2O emissions by analyzing available natural isotopic signatures of N2O and by using stable isotope enrichment and inhibition techniques. We argue that it is urgently necessary to incorporate microbial traits into biogeochemical ecosystem modeling in order to increase the estimation reliability of N2O emissions. We further propose a molecular methodology oriented framework from gene to ecosystem scales for more robust prediction and mitigation of future N2O emissions. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures may increase biofilm primary productivity but decrease grazer consumption

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Findlay, Helen S.; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova

2013-01-01

Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term. PMID:23980241

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures may increase biofilm primary productivity but decrease grazer consumption.

PubMed

Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Findlay, Helen S; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova

2013-01-01

Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term.

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

2008-01-01

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

Disturbance Distance: Using a process based ecosystem model to estimate and map potential thresholds in disturbance rates that would give rise to fundamentally altered ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Flanagan, S.; LePage, Y.; Sahajpal, R.

2014-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. As recent studies highlight novel disturbance regimes resulting from pollution, invasive pests and climate change, there is a need to include these alterations in predictions of future forest function and structure. The Ecosystem Demography (ED) model is a mechanistic model of forest ecosystem dynamics in which individual-based forest dynamics can be efficiently implemented over regional to global scales due to advanced scaling methods. We utilize ED to characterize the sensitivity of potential vegetation structure and function to changes in rates of density independent mortality. Disturbance rate within ED can either be altered directly or through the development of sub-models. Disturbance sub-models in ED currently include fire, land use and hurricanes. We use a tiered approach to understand the sensitivity of North American ecosystems to changes in background density independent mortality. Our first analyses were conducted at half-degree spatial resolution with a constant rate of disturbance in space and time, which was altered between runs. Annual climate was held constant at the site level and the land use and fire sub-models were turned off. Results showed an ~ 30% increase in non-forest area across the US when disturbance rates were changed from 0.6% a year to 1.2% a year and a more than 3.5 fold increase in non-forest area when disturbance rates doubled again from 1.2% to 2.4%. Continued runs altered natural background disturbance rates with the existing fire and hurricane sub models turned on as well as historic and future land use. By quantify differences between model outputs that characterize ecosystem structure and function related to the carbon cycle across the US, we are identifying areas and characteristics that display higher sensitivities to change in disturbance rates.

Climate Change-Induced Range Expansion of a Subterranean Rodent: Implications for Rangeland Management in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Su, Junhu; Aryal, Achyut; Nan, Zhibiao; Ji, Weihong

2015-01-01

Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios. PMID:26406891

Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

PubMed

Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

2006-03-22

Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

Report from the workshop on climate downscaling and its application in high Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria; Burgett, Jeff M.

2016-07-14

In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.

Towards scaling interannual ecohydrological responses of conifer forests to bark beetle infestations from individuals to landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Savoy, P.; Reed, D. E.; Frank, J. M.

2013-12-01

Widespread epidemics of forest-damaging insects have severe implications for the interconnections between water and ecosystem processes under present-day climate. How these systems respond to future climates is highly uncertain, and so there is a need for a better understanding of the effects of such disturbances on plant hydraulics, and the consequent effects on ecosystem processes. Moreover, large-scale manifestations of such disturbances require scaling knowledge obtained from individual trees or stands up to a regional extent. This requires a conceptual framework that integrates physical and biological processes that are immutable and scalable. Indeed, in Western North America multiple conifer species have been impacted by the bark beetle epidemic, but the prediction of such widespread outbreaks under changing environmental conditions must be generalized from a relatively small number of ground-based observations. Using model-data fusion we examine the fundamental principles that drive ecological and hydrological responses to bark beetles infestation from individuals to regions. The study includes a mid-elevation (2750 m a.s.l) lodgepole pine forest and higher (3190 m a.s.l.) elevation Engelmann spruce - fir forest in southern Wyoming. The study included a suite of observations, comprising leaf gas exchange, non-structural carbon (NSC), plant hydraulics, including sap flux transpiration (E), vulnerability to cavitation, leaf water potentials, and eddy covariance, were made pre-, during-, and post-disturbance, as the bark beetle infestation moved through these areas. Numerous observations tested hypotheses generated by the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES), which integrates soil hydraulics and dynamic tree hydraulics (cavitation) with canopy energy and gas exchange, and operates at scales from individuals to landscapes. TREES accurately predicted E and NSC dynamics among individuals spanning pre- and post-disturbance periods, with the 95% prediction bounds of the model capturing 95% of observations. Based on support from our model-data fusion we advance a conceptual framework, grounded on the idea of plant hydraulic traits shifting from equilibrium to non-equilibrium states between soil and vegetation, with some traits that forms a key interconnection between water and ecosystem responses to bark beetle disturbance shifting back to equilibrium within five years. Implications of future climate conditions are then examined using our conceptual framework, by exploring the water and carbon responses to insect outbreaks with and without co-occurring drought and heat stress.

A methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an illustration from the future midwestern landscapes study

EPA Science Inventory

The product is a white paper defining a methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an Illustration from the Future Midwestern Landscapes Study. The scoping method develops a hierarchy of relevant societal values, identifies the ecosyste...

Microbial Functional Gene Diversity Predicts Groundwater Contamination and Ecosystem Functioning.

PubMed

He, Zhili; Zhang, Ping; Wu, Linwei; Rocha, Andrea M; Tu, Qichao; Shi, Zhou; Wu, Bo; Qin, Yujia; Wang, Jianjun; Yan, Qingyun; Curtis, Daniel; Ning, Daliang; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Wu, Liyou; Yang, Yunfeng; Elias, Dwayne A; Watson, David B; Adams, Michael W W; Fields, Matthew W; Alm, Eric J; Hazen, Terry C; Adams, Paul D; Arkin, Adam P; Zhou, Jizhong

2018-02-20

Contamination from anthropogenic activities has significantly impacted Earth's biosphere. However, knowledge about how environmental contamination affects the biodiversity of groundwater microbiomes and ecosystem functioning remains very limited. Here, we used a comprehensive functional gene array to analyze groundwater microbiomes from 69 wells at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center (Oak Ridge, TN), representing a wide pH range and uranium, nitrate, and other contaminants. We hypothesized that the functional diversity of groundwater microbiomes would decrease as environmental contamination (e.g., uranium or nitrate) increased or at low or high pH, while some specific populations capable of utilizing or resistant to those contaminants would increase, and thus, such key microbial functional genes and/or populations could be used to predict groundwater contamination and ecosystem functioning. Our results indicated that functional richness/diversity decreased as uranium (but not nitrate) increased in groundwater. In addition, about 5.9% of specific key functional populations targeted by a comprehensive functional gene array (GeoChip 5) increased significantly ( P < 0.05) as uranium or nitrate increased, and their changes could be used to successfully predict uranium and nitrate contamination and ecosystem functioning. This study indicates great potential for using microbial functional genes to predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. IMPORTANCE Disentangling the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is an important but poorly understood topic in ecology. Predicting ecosystem functioning on the basis of biodiversity is even more difficult, particularly with microbial biomarkers. As an exploratory effort, this study used key microbial functional genes as biomarkers to provide predictive understanding of environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. The results indicated that the overall functional gene richness/diversity decreased as uranium increased in groundwater, while specific key microbial guilds increased significantly as uranium or nitrate increased. These key microbial functional genes could be used to successfully predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. This study represents a significant advance in using functional gene markers to predict the spatial distribution of environmental contaminants and ecosystem functioning toward predictive microbial ecology, which is an ultimate goal of microbial ecology. Copyright © 2018 He et al.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Quantity and quality: unifying food web and ecosystem perspectives on the role of resource subsidies in freshwaters.

PubMed

Marcarelli, Amy M; Baxter, Colden V; Mineau, Madeleine M; Hall, Robert O

2011-06-01

Although the study of resource subsidies has emerged as a key topic in both ecosystem and food web ecology, the dialogue over their role has been limited by separate approaches that emphasize either subsidy quantity or quality. Considering quantity and quality together may provide a simple, but previously unexplored, framework for identifying the mechanisms that govern the importance of subsidies for recipient food webs and ecosystems. Using a literature review of > 90 studies of open-water metabolism in lakes and streams, we show that high-flux, low-quality subsidies can drive freshwater ecosystem dynamics. Because most of these ecosystems are net heterotrophic, allochthonous inputs must subsidize respiration. Second, using a literature review of subsidy quality and use, we demonstrate that animals select for high-quality food resources in proportions greater than would be predicted based on food quantity, and regardless of allochthonous or autochthonous origin. This finding suggests that low-flux, high-quality subsidies may be selected for by animals, and in turn may disproportionately affect food web and ecosystem processes (e.g., animal production, trophic energy or organic matter flow, trophic cascades). We then synthesize and review approaches that evaluate the role of subsidies and explicitly merge ecosystem and food web perspectives by placing food web measurements in the context of ecosystem budgets, by comparing trophic and ecosystem production and fluxes, and by constructing flow food webs. These tools can and should be used to address future questions about subsidies, such as the relative importance of subsidies to different trophic levels and how subsidies may maintain or disrupt ecosystem stability and food web interactions.

Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

PubMed

Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

2016-05-15

For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary ecosystem service valuation yields a total average estimate of 361-1242 euro ha(-1) yr(-1). PM2.5 (<2.5 μm) removal is the key service, with a projected value of 622-1172 euro ha(-1) yr(-1). Concerning environmental impact assessment, with net CO2 uptake being the most relevant contributing flow, a loss prevention of 0.014-0.029 healthy life years ha(-1) yr(-1) is calculated for the respective flows. Both assessment methods favor the use of the least intensive management scenario due to its resulting higher CO2 sequestration and PM removal, which are the most important services of the considered ones. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Warming alters the metabolic balance of ecosystems

PubMed Central

Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Jones, J. Iwan; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy; Montoya, Jose M.

2010-01-01

The carbon cycle modulates climate change, via the regulation of atmospheric CO2, and it represents one of the most important services provided by ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainties remain concerning potential feedback between the biota and the climate. In particular, it is unclear how global warming will affect the metabolic balance between the photosynthetic fixation and respiratory release of CO2 at the ecosystem scale. Here, we present a combination of experimental field data from freshwater mesocosms, and theoretical predictions derived from the metabolic theory of ecology to investigate whether warming will alter the capacity of ecosystems to absorb CO2. Our manipulative experiment simulated the temperature increases predicted for the end of the century and revealed that ecosystem respiration increased at a faster rate than primary production, reducing carbon sequestration by 13 per cent. These results confirmed our theoretical predictions based on the differential activation energies of these two processes. Using only the activation energies for whole ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration we provide a theoretical prediction that accurately quantified the precise magnitude of the reduction in carbon sequestration observed experimentally. We suggest the combination of whole-ecosystem manipulative experiments and ecological theory is one of the most promising and fruitful research areas to predict the impacts of climate change on key ecosystem services. PMID:20513719

Planning for an uncertain future: Restoration to mitigate water scarcity and sustain carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; David N. Wear; Larry Band

2018-01-01

The desired future conditions of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) can be described by ecosystem structural characteristics as well as by the provision of ecosystem services. Although the desired structural characteristics of restored longleaf pine ecosystems have been described at length, these characteristics deserve a brief review here because...

Simulating and mapping the spatial and seasonal effects of future climate and land -use changes on ecosystem services in the Yanhe watershed, China.

PubMed

Chen, Dengshuai; Li, Jing; Zhou, Zixiang; Liu, Yan; Li, Ting; Liu, Jingya

2018-01-01

Effective information about ecosystem services is essential to help optimize and prioritize activities that support conservation planning in the face of land use and climate changes. This study shows an approach that integrates several dissimilar models for assessing water-related ecosystem services to predict values in 2050 under three land use scenarios in the Yanhe watershed. The simulated output variables pertaining to water yield and sediment yield were used as indicators for two ecosystem-regulating services, i.e., water flow regulation and erosion regulation, which were quantified using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale, which facilitated the analysis of spatial and seasonal changes and served as the basis for the applied mapping approach. The simulated results indicate that higher water-related regulation services were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of rivers with high water yield and low sediment erosion. The highest water flow regulation services occurred in summer; nevertheless, this was when erosion regulation services were the lowest compared to other periods in 2050. A comparison of the three land use scenarios showed differences in the water-related regulation services. Scenario 1, with high forest coverage, had the highest erosion regulation services, but the water flow regulation services were the lowest. Scenario 3 showed the reverse pattern. Scenario 2 had intermediate water flow regulation and erosion regulation. Increasing vegetation cover in the watershed is conducive to controlling water and soil erosion but could lead to a decline in available water resources. Spatial mapping is a powerful tool for displaying the spatiotemporal differences in the water-related regulation services delivered by ecosystems and can help decision makers optimize land use in the future, with the goal of maximizing the benefits offered by ecological services in the Yanhe watershed.

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform.

PubMed

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P; Allen, Douglas K; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A J; Cox, Donna J; Hart, John C; Hirst, Peter M; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S; Lynch, Jonathan P; Millar, Andrew J; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J; Voit, Eberhard O; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop.

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform

PubMed Central

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P.; Allen, Douglas K.; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A.; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A. J.; Cox, Donna J.; Hart, John C.; Hirst, Peter M.; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S.; Lynch, Jonathan P.; Millar, Andrew J.; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D.; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G.; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J.; Voit, Eberhard O.; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop. PMID:28555150

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Body Size Is a Significant Predictor of Congruency in Species Richness Patterns: A Meta-Analysis of Aquatic Studies

PubMed Central

Velghe, Katherine; Gregory-Eaves, Irene

2013-01-01

Biodiversity losses over the next century are predicted to result in alterations of ecosystem functions that are on par with other major drivers of global change. Given the seriousness of this issue, there is a need to effectively monitor global biodiversity. Because performing biodiversity censuses of all taxonomic groups is prohibitively costly, indicator groups have been studied to estimate the biodiversity of different taxonomic groups. Quantifying cross-taxon congruence is a method of evaluating the assumption that the diversity of one taxonomic group can be used to predict the diversity of another. To improve the predictive ability of cross-taxon congruence in aquatic ecosystems, we evaluated whether body size, measured as the ratio of average body length between organismal groups, is a significant predictor of their cross-taxon biodiversity congruence. To test this hypothesis, we searched the published literature and screened for studies that used species richness correlations as their metric of cross-taxon congruence. We extracted 96 correlation coefficients from 16 studies, which encompassed 784 inland water bodies. With these correlation coefficients, we conducted a categorical meta-analysis, grouping data based on the body size ratio of organisms. Our results showed that cross-taxon congruence is variable among sites and between different groups (r values ranging between −0.53 to 0.88). In addition, our quantitative meta-analysis demonstrated that organisms most similar in body size showed stronger species richness correlations than organisms which differed increasingly in size (radj 2 = 0.94, p = 0.02). We propose that future studies applying biodiversity indicators in aquatic ecosystems consider functional traits such as body size, so as to increase their success at predicting the biodiversity of taxonomic groups where cost-effective conservation tools are needed. PMID:23468903

Evaluating Productivity Predictions Under Elevated CO2 Conditions: Multi-Model Benchmarking Across FACE Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2016-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty.The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an informatics toolbox that wraps around an ecosystem model and can be used to help identify which factors drive uncertainty. We tested a suite of models (LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, GDAY, CLM5, DALEC, ED2), which represent a range from low to high structural complexity, across a range of Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments: the Kennedy Space Center Open Top Chamber Experiment, the Rhinelander FACE experiment, the Duke Forest FACE experiment and the Oak Ridge Experiment on CO2 Enrichment. These tests were implemented in a novel benchmarking workflow that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Observational data from the FACE experiments represent a first test of this flexible, extensible approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation.To identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences we used PEcAn to perform model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, not only to assess the components of NPP, but also to examine system processes such nutrient uptake and and water use. Combining the observed patterns of uncertainty between multiple models with results of the recent FACE-model data synthesis project (FACE-MDS) can help identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. These findings can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide informative starting point for data assimilation.

Elevation alters ecosystem properties across temperate treelines globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayor, Jordan R.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Classen, Aimée T.; Bardgett, Richard D.; Clément, Jean-Christophe; Fajardo, Alex; Lavorel, Sandra; Sundqvist, Maja K.; Bahn, Michael; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cieraad, Ellen; Gedalof, Ze'Ev; Grigulis, Karl; Kudo, Gaku; Oberski, Daniel L.; Wardle, David A.

2017-01-01

Temperature is a primary driver of the distribution of biodiversity as well as of ecosystem boundaries. Declining temperature with increasing elevation in montane systems has long been recognized as a major factor shaping plant community biodiversity, metabolic processes, and ecosystem dynamics. Elevational gradients, as thermoclines, also enable prediction of long-term ecological responses to climate warming. One of the most striking manifestations of increasing elevation is the abrupt transitions from forest to treeless alpine tundra. However, whether there are globally consistent above- and belowground responses to these transitions remains an open question. To disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on ecosystem properties, here we evaluate replicate treeline ecotones in seven temperate regions of the world. We find that declining temperatures with increasing elevation did not affect tree leaf nutrient concentrations, but did reduce ground-layer community-weighted plant nitrogen, leading to the strong stoichiometric convergence of ground-layer plant community nitrogen to phosphorus ratios across all regions. Further, elevation-driven changes in plant nutrients were associated with changes in soil organic matter content and quality (carbon to nitrogen ratios) and microbial properties. Combined, our identification of direct and indirect temperature controls over plant communities and soil properties in seven contrasting regions suggests that future warming may disrupt the functional properties of montane ecosystems, particularly where plant community reorganization outpaces treeline advance.

Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks

PubMed Central

Casini, Michele; Blenckner, Thorsten; Möllmann, Christian; Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Llope, Marcos; Kornilovs, Georgs; Plikshs, Maris; Stenseth, Nils Christian

2012-01-01

Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a “true sink” habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:22505739

Elevation alters ecosystem properties across temperate treelines globally.

PubMed

Mayor, Jordan R; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T; Bardgett, Richard D; Clément, Jean-Christophe; Fajardo, Alex; Lavorel, Sandra; Sundqvist, Maja K; Bahn, Michael; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cieraad, Ellen; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Grigulis, Karl; Kudo, Gaku; Oberski, Daniel L; Wardle, David A

2017-02-02

Temperature is a primary driver of the distribution of biodiversity as well as of ecosystem boundaries. Declining temperature with increasing elevation in montane systems has long been recognized as a major factor shaping plant community biodiversity, metabolic processes, and ecosystem dynamics. Elevational gradients, as thermoclines, also enable prediction of long-term ecological responses to climate warming. One of the most striking manifestations of increasing elevation is the abrupt transitions from forest to treeless alpine tundra. However, whether there are globally consistent above- and belowground responses to these transitions remains an open question. To disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on ecosystem properties, here we evaluate replicate treeline ecotones in seven temperate regions of the world. We find that declining temperatures with increasing elevation did not affect tree leaf nutrient concentrations, but did reduce ground-layer community-weighted plant nitrogen, leading to the strong stoichiometric convergence of ground-layer plant community nitrogen to phosphorus ratios across all regions. Further, elevation-driven changes in plant nutrients were associated with changes in soil organic matter content and quality (carbon to nitrogen ratios) and microbial properties. Combined, our identification of direct and indirect temperature controls over plant communities and soil properties in seven contrasting regions suggests that future warming may disrupt the functional properties of montane ecosystems, particularly where plant community reorganization outpaces treeline advance.

Human activities change marine ecosystems by altering predation risk.

PubMed

Madin, Elizabeth M P; Dill, Lawrence M; Ridlon, April D; Heithaus, Michael R; Warner, Robert R

2016-01-01

In ocean ecosystems, many of the changes in predation risk - both increases and decreases - are human-induced. These changes are occurring at scales ranging from global to local and across variable temporal scales. Indirect, risk-based effects of human activity are known to be important in structuring some terrestrial ecosystems, but these impacts have largely been neglected in oceans. Here, we synthesize existing literature and data to explore multiple lines of evidence that collectively suggest diverse human activities are changing marine ecosystems, including carbon storage capacity, in myriad ways by altering predation risk. We provide novel, compelling evidence that at least one key human activity, overfishing, can lead to distinct, cascading risk effects in natural ecosystems whose magnitude exceeds that of presumed lethal effects and may account for previously unexplained findings. We further discuss the conservation implications of human-caused indirect risk effects. Finally, we provide a predictive framework for when human alterations of risk in oceans should lead to cascading effects and outline a prospectus for future research. Given the speed and extent with which human activities are altering marine risk landscapes, it is crucial that conservation and management policy considers the indirect effects of these activities in order to increase the likelihood of success and avoid unfortunate surprises. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

PubMed

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the ecological threat on waters in the long-term. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean.

PubMed

Reusch, Thorsten B H; Dierking, Jan; Andersson, Helen C; Bonsdorff, Erik; Carstensen, Jacob; Casini, Michele; Czajkowski, Mikolaj; Hasler, Berit; Hinsby, Klaus; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Johannesson, Kerstin; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Jormalainen, Veijo; Kuosa, Harri; Kurland, Sara; Laikre, Linda; MacKenzie, Brian R; Margonski, Piotr; Melzner, Frank; Oesterwind, Daniel; Ojaveer, Henn; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Sandström, Annica; Schwarz, Gerald; Tonderski, Karin; Winder, Monika; Zandersen, Marianne

2018-05-01

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

PubMed Central

Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Andersson, Helen C.; Bonsdorff, Erik; Carstensen, Jacob; Kuosa, Harri; Laikre, Linda; Melzner, Frank; Oesterwind, Daniel; Sandström, Annica; Schwarz, Gerald; Winder, Monika; Zandersen, Marianne

2018-01-01

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs. PMID:29750199

Typhoons exert significant but differential impacts on net ecosystem carbon exchange of subtropical mangrove forests in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Lu, W.; Yan, G.; Yang, S.; Lin, G.

2014-10-01

Typhoons are very unpredictable natural disturbances to subtropical mangrove forests in Asian countries, but little information is available on how these disturbances affect ecosystem level carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of mangrove wetlands. In this study, we examined short-term effect of frequent strong typhoons on defoliation and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of subtropical mangroves, and also synthesized 19 typhoons during a 4-year period between 2009 and 2012 to further investigate the regulation mechanisms of typhoons on ecosystem carbon and water fluxes following typhoon disturbances. Strong wind and intensive rainfall caused defoliation and local cooling effect during the typhoon season. Daily total NEE values decreased by 26-50% following some typhoons (e.g., W28-Nockten, W35-Molave and W35-Lio-Fan), but significantly increased (43-131%) following typhoon W23-Babj and W38-Megi. The magnitudes and trends of daily NEE responses were highly variable following different typhoons, which were determined by the balance between the variances of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, results from our synthesis indicated that the landfall time of typhoon, wind speed and rainfall were the most important factors controlling the CO2 fluxes following typhoon events. These findings indicate that different types of typhoon disturbances can exert very different effects on CO2 fluxes of mangrove ecosystems and that typhoon will likely have larger impacts on carbon cycle processes in subtropical mangrove ecosystems as the intensity and frequency of typhoons are predicted to increase under future global climate change scenarios.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Wang, Guangyu; Sun, Long; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Hu, Haiqing

2017-12-15

In this study, spatial patterns and driving factors of fires were identified from 2000 to 2010 using Ripley's K (d) function and logistic regression (LR) model in two different forest ecosystems of China: the boreal forest (Daxing'an Mountains) and sub-tropical forest (Fujian province). Relative effects of each driving factor on fire occurrence were identified based on standardized coefficients in the LR model. Results revealed that fires were spatially clustered and that fire drivers vary amongst differing forest ecosystems in China. Fires in the Daxing'an Mountains respond primarily to human factors, of which infrastructure is recognized as the most influential. In contrast, climate factors played a critical role in fire occurrence in Fujian, of which the temperature of fire season was found to be of greater importance than other climate factors. Selected factors can predict nearly 80% of the total fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains and 66% in Fujian, wherein human and climate factors contributed the greatest impact in the two study areas, respectively. This study suggests that different fire prevention and management strategies are required in the areas of study, as significant variations of the main fire-driving exist. Rapid socio-economic development has produced similar effects in different forest ecosystems within China, implying a strong correlation between socio-economic development and fire regimes. It can be concluded that the influence of human factors will increase in the future as China's economy continues to grow - an issue of concern that should be further addressed in future national fire management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laufkotter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas

Here, accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projectionsmore » in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.« less

Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Laufkotter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; ...

2016-07-14

Here, accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projectionsmore » in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.« less

Gene Expression Dynamics Accompanying the Sponge Thermal Stress Response.

PubMed

Guzman, Christine; Conaco, Cecilia

2016-01-01

Marine sponges are important members of coral reef ecosystems. Thus, their responses to changes in ocean chemistry and environmental conditions, particularly to higher seawater temperatures, will have potential impacts on the future of these reefs. To better understand the sponge thermal stress response, we investigated gene expression dynamics in the shallow water sponge, Haliclona tubifera (order Haplosclerida, class Demospongiae), subjected to elevated temperature. Using high-throughput transcriptome sequencing, we show that these conditions result in the activation of various processes that interact to maintain cellular homeostasis. Short-term thermal stress resulted in the induction of heat shock proteins, antioxidants, and genes involved in signal transduction and innate immunity pathways. Prolonged exposure to thermal stress affected the expression of genes involved in cellular damage repair, apoptosis, signaling and transcription. Interestingly, exposure to sublethal temperatures may improve the ability of the sponge to mitigate cellular damage under more extreme stress conditions. These insights into the potential mechanisms of adaptation and resilience of sponges contribute to a better understanding of sponge conservation status and the prediction of ecosystem trajectories under future climate conditions.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Consequences of artichoke thistle invasion and removal on carbon and water cycling in a Mediterranean grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, D. L.; Harpole, W. S.; Suding, K. N.; Goulden, M. L.

2006-12-01

Changes in vegetation structure and composition may interact with management activities to influence biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy in unforeseen ways. Increases in the distribution and density of artichoke thistle (Cynara cardunculus), a perennial, non-native forb in Californian coastal grasslands, may alter seasonal dynamics of ecosystem C-assimilation and evapotranspiration (ET). During spring and summer 2006, we compared midday net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and ET among adjacent grassland plots where thistle was present and where it was absent. Estimates of NEE supported the prediction that deeply-rooted thistles increase ecosystem C-assimilation. Measurements of midday ecosystem respiration demonstrated that increases in ecosystem C-assimilation were associated with increased ecosystem photosynthesis rather than declines in respiration. Furthermore, the presence of C. cardunculus increased midday ET but did not influence shallow soil moisture or ecosystem water use efficiency. Following the initial sampling in late April, we removed C. cardunculus from half the thistle- containing plots with spot applications of herbicide. Three weeks later, fluxes in thistle-removal plots were indistinguishable from those in plots where thistles were never present, suggesting additive rather than interactive effects of thistles on grassland CO2 exchange and ET. Similar to woody-encroachment in some semi-arid ecosystems, C. cardunculus invasion in Californian grasslands increases ecosystem CO2 assimilation. Moreover, our results suggest that herbicide removal of C. cardunculus may be accompanied by few legacy effects. Future research should focus on the effects of C. cardunculus on early-growing season fluxes and belowground C-storage, and the interaction between the spread of non-native species and climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water.

No Free Lunch - Trading Away Ecosystem Services from Agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaks, D.; Foley, J.

2008-12-01

In the age of globalization, many crops and animal products are transported across the long distances for consumption elsewhere. The alteration of water, soil and climate systems from agricultural practices can be attributed to both exporting and importing countries. Quantities of water, carbon and nutrients (e.g. nitrogen and phosphorus) can be tracked throughout the production process and be aggregated from field to table. The synthesis of this data can be used to inform markets to appropriately price the most ecologically efficient production.While agricultural land is undergoing changes around the world, the Brazilian Amazon has seen a dramatic conversion of forest and grassland due to the expanding agricultural frontier, and intense growth in the future has been predicted in the region. As a proof of concept, I plan to study the flow of ecosystem services from the Amazon rainforest basin to the world market. Cattle and soybeans are the two main agricultural products of the region and are produced for both internal consumption and for export. This work quantifies agricultural production and its associated ecosystem services using socio-economic and commodity trade data, numerical ecosystem models and remote sensing products.

Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality

PubMed Central

Manning, Peter; Prati, Daniel; Gossner, Martin M.; Alt, Fabian; Arndt, Hartmut; Baumgartner, Vanessa; Binkenstein, Julia; Birkhofer, Klaus; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Boch, Steffen; Böhm, Stefan; Börschig, Carmen; Buscot, Francois; Diekötter, Tim; Heinze, Johannes; Hölzel, Norbert; Jung, Kirsten; Klaus, Valentin H.; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Kleinebecker, Till; Klemmer, Sandra; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Morris, E. Kathryn; Müller, Jörg; Oelmann, Yvonne; Overmann, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Renner, Swen C.; Rillig, Matthias C.; Schaefer, H. Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Sikorski, Johannes; Socher, Stephanie A.; Solly, Emily F.; Sonnemann, Ilja; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Türke, Manfred; Venter, Paul; Weiner, Christiane N.; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Wolters, Volkmar; Wubet, Tesfaye; Wurst, Susanne; Fischer, Markus; Allan, Eric

2016-01-01

Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity–multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above- and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities. PMID:27114572

Carbon Storages in Plantation Ecosystems in Sand Source Areas of North Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiuping; Zhang, Wanjun; Cao, Jiansheng; Shen, Huitao; Zeng, Xinhua; Yu, Zhiqiang; Zhao, Xin

2013-01-01

Afforestation is a mitigation option to reduce the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as well as the predicted high possibility of climate change. In this paper, vegetation survey data, statistical database, National Forest Resource Inventory database, and allometric equations were used to estimate carbon density (carbon mass per hectare) and carbon storage, and identify the size and spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks in plantation ecosystems in sand source areas of north Beijing, China. From 2001 to the end of 2010, the forest areas increased more than 2.3 million ha, and total carbon storage in forest ecosystems was 173.02 Tg C, of which 82.80 percent was contained in soil in the top 0–100 cm layer. Younger forests have a large potential for enhancing carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems than older ones. Regarding future afforestation efforts, it will be more effective to increase forest area and vegetation carbon density through selection of appropriate tree species and stand structure according to local climate and soil conditions, and application of proper forest management including land-shaping, artificial tending and fencing plantations. It would be also important to protect the organic carbon in surface soils during forest management. PMID:24349223

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

2016-09-20

Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, Matthias S.; Garcia, Clement; Bolam, Stefan G.; Parker, Ruth; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Solan, Martin

2017-03-01

Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation - a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling - to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.

Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality.

PubMed

Soliveres, Santiago; Manning, Peter; Prati, Daniel; Gossner, Martin M; Alt, Fabian; Arndt, Hartmut; Baumgartner, Vanessa; Binkenstein, Julia; Birkhofer, Klaus; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Boch, Steffen; Böhm, Stefan; Börschig, Carmen; Buscot, Francois; Diekötter, Tim; Heinze, Johannes; Hölzel, Norbert; Jung, Kirsten; Klaus, Valentin H; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Kleinebecker, Till; Klemmer, Sandra; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Morris, E Kathryn; Müller, Jörg; Oelmann, Yvonne; Overmann, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Renner, Swen C; Rillig, Matthias C; Schaefer, H Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Sikorski, Johannes; Socher, Stephanie A; Solly, Emily F; Sonnemann, Ilja; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Türke, Manfred; Venter, Paul; Weiner, Christiane N; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Wolters, Volkmar; Wubet, Tesfaye; Wurst, Susanne; Fischer, Markus; Allan, Eric

2016-05-19

Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity-multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above- and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities. © 2016 The Author(s).

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Barber, Mary C.; Adams, Mark; Agboola, Julius I.; Allen, Edith B.; Bealey, William J.; Bobbink, Roland; Bobrovsky, Maxim V.; Bowman, William D.; Branquinho, Cristina; Bustamente, Mercedes M. C.; Clark, Christopher M.; Cocking, Edward C.; Cruz, Cristina; Davidson, Eric A.; Denmead, O. Tom; Dias, Teresa; Dise, Nancy B.; Feest, Alan; Galloway, James N.; Geiser, Linda H.; Gilliam, Frank S.; Harrison, Ian J.; Khanina, Larisa G.; Lu, Xiankai; Manrique, Esteban; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Ometto, Jean P. H. B.; Payne, Richard; Scheuschner, Thomas; Sheppard, Lucy J.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Singh, Y. V.; Stevens, Carly J.; Strachan, Ian; Sverdrup, Harald; Tokuchi, Naoko; van Dobben, Hans; Woodin, Sarah

2014-01-01

This chapter reports the findings of a Working Group on how atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects both terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity. Regional and global scale impacts on biodiversity are addressed, together with potential indicators. Key conclusions are that: the rates of loss in biodiversity are greatest at the lowest and initial stages of N deposition increase; changes in species compositions are related to the relative amounts of N, carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) in the plant soil system; enhanced N inputs have implications for C cycling; N deposition is known to be having adverse effects on European and North American vegetation composition; very little is known about tropical ecosystem responses, while tropical ecosystems are major biodiversity hotspots and are increasingly recipients of very high N deposition rates; N deposition alters forest fungi and mycorrhyzal relations with plants; the rapid response of forest fungi and arthropods makes them good indicators of change; predictive tools (models) that address ecosystem scale processes are necessary to address complex drivers and responses, including the integration of N deposition, climate change and land use effects; criteria can be identified for projecting sensitivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to N deposition. Future research and policy-relevant recommendations are identified.

Understanding the value of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning through niche theory

PubMed Central

Isbell, Forest; Purves, Drew W.; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity experiments have generated robust empirical results supporting the hypothesis that ecosystems function better when they contain more species. Given that ecosystems provide services that are valued by humans, this inevitably suggests that the loss of species from natural ecosystems could diminish their value. This raises two important questions. First, will experimental results translate into the real world, where species are being lost at an alarming rate? And second, what are the benefits and pitfalls of such valuation exercises? We argue that the empirical results obtained in experiments are entirely consistent with well-established theories of species coexistence. We then examine the current body of work through the lens of niche theory and highlight where closer links with theory could open up opportunities for future research. We argue that niche theory predicts that diversity–functioning relationships are likely to be stronger (and require more species) in the field than in simplified experimental settings. However, we caution that while many of the biological processes that promote coexistence can also generate diversity–function relationships, there is no simple mapping between the two. This implies that valuation exercises need to proceed with care. PMID:27928043

Understanding the value of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning through niche theory.

PubMed

Turnbull, Lindsay A; Isbell, Forest; Purves, Drew W; Loreau, Michel; Hector, Andy

2016-12-14

Biodiversity experiments have generated robust empirical results supporting the hypothesis that ecosystems function better when they contain more species. Given that ecosystems provide services that are valued by humans, this inevitably suggests that the loss of species from natural ecosystems could diminish their value. This raises two important questions. First, will experimental results translate into the real world, where species are being lost at an alarming rate? And second, what are the benefits and pitfalls of such valuation exercises? We argue that the empirical results obtained in experiments are entirely consistent with well-established theories of species coexistence. We then examine the current body of work through the lens of niche theory and highlight where closer links with theory could open up opportunities for future research. We argue that niche theory predicts that diversity-functioning relationships are likely to be stronger (and require more species) in the field than in simplified experimental settings. However, we caution that while many of the biological processes that promote coexistence can also generate diversity-function relationships, there is no simple mapping between the two. This implies that valuation exercises need to proceed with care. © 2016 The Author(s).

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2016-12-01

Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated hydrometeorological scenarios in the two contrasting ecosystems. Results demonstrate that vegetation dynamics are influenced by the inter-annual variability of atmospheric forcing, with vegetation density changing significantly according to seasonal rainfall amount. At the same time the vegetation dynamics affect the soil water balance.

Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Richard M. T.; Semmens, Darius J.

2009-01-01

The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.

Predicting future mangrove forest migration in the Everglades under rising sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.

2003-01-01

Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems that provide valued habitat for fish and shorebirds. Mangrove forests are universally composed of relatively few tree species and a single overstory strata. Three species of true mangroves are common to intertidal zones of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Coast, namely, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangrove forests occupy intertidal settings of the coastal margin of the Everglades along the southwest tip of the Florida peninsula (fig. 1).

Differential Sensitivity to Drought in Central U.S. Grasslands Arrayed Along an Aridity Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Alan; Collins, Scott; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Melinda

2015-04-01

Responses to drought often vary dramatically among terrestrial ecosystems, but the reasons why are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent, severe and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central U.S. experienced the 4th largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a natural drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity would be inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 yrs) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per mm reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than 2-fold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing similar relative reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity. Results from this natural drought will be compared with responses to an experimentally imposed drought to determine if patterns of sensitivity are consistent between experimental and observational approaches.

A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Laurel G.; Moseman, Serena; Santoro, Alyson; Hopfensperger, Kristine; Burgin, Amy

2010-01-01

To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need an improvedunderstanding of how tidal marsh ecosystem services will respond to sea-level rise and increased nitrogen (N) loading to coastal areas. Here we review existing literature to better understand how these interacting perturbations s will likely impact N removal by tidal marshes. We propose that the keyy factors controlling long-term changes in N removal are plant-community changes, soil accretion rates, surface-subsurface flow paths, marsh geomorphology microbial communities, and substrates for microbial reactions. Feedbacks affecting relative elevations and sediment accretion ratess will serve as dominant controls on future N removal throughout the marsh. Given marsh persistence, we hypothesize that the processes dominating N removal will vary laterally across the marsh and longitudinallyalong the estuarine gradient. In salt marsh interiors, where nitrate reduction rates are often limited by delivery of nitrate to bacterial communities, reductions in groundwater discharge due to sea level rise may trigger a net reduction in N removal. In freshwater marshes, we expect a decreasee in N removal efficiency due to increased sulfide concentrations. Sulfide encroachment will increase the relative importance of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium and lead to greater bacterial nitrogen immobilization, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem that retains more N and is less effective at permanent N removal from the watershed. In contrast, we predict that sealevel–driven expansion of the tidal creek network and the degree of surface-subsurface exchange flux through tidal creek banks will result in greater N-removal efficiency from these locations.

Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

2013-05-01

The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF. During periods of aridity, temporal heterogeneity in the abundance of individual taxa was crucial in the determination of forest resilience following climate change, where some taxa disappeared for hundreds years and then reappeared when humidity returns. Given the global climate change prediction for neotropical forests where drier environments are expected, the long-term resilience of these ecosystems may be greatly reduced. Fire was determined as an essential natural component of the PF. Consequently conservation and management strategies should always regard fire as an important tool for its present and future perpetuation. CF is a vulnerable community, distinctive in temporal taxa composition, therefore site-specificity protection schemes are crucial for its future preservation.TF was a CF in the past developing into a Pinus-Carpinus-Quercus forest today. Given the present-day predictions of global warming, the goal in this forest is to avoid its conversion into an open-land establishing strict protection schemes.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions. Specifics of the importance of the scientific methodology e.g. RCM ensemble modeling (using OLAM, RAMS and WRF); combining RCM runs with agriculture modeling system (specifically APSIM); bringing different RCM setups to as close as possible common framework, etc., and important science results (e.g. the significance of Gulf of CA SST for precipitation over dry regions; the AR landfall impacts on precipitation; etc.) are described in our work. We emphasize that the methodology is significant in order to advance the state of the art climate change impacts at regional levels; and to implement our methodology for realistic impact analysis on the natural and managed (agriculture) ecosystems, beyond the SW US.

A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

2016-02-01

Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

Who Should Pick the Winners of Climate Change?

PubMed

Webster, Michael S; Colton, Madhavi A; Darling, Emily S; Armstrong, Jonathan; Pinsky, Malin L; Knowlton, Nancy; Schindler, Daniel E

2017-03-01

Many conservation strategies identify a narrow subset of genotypes, species, or geographic locations that are predicted to be favored under different scenarios of future climate change. However, a focus on predicted winners, which might not prove to be correct, risks undervaluing the balance of biological diversity from which climate-change winners could otherwise emerge. Drawing on ecology, evolutionary biology, and portfolio theory, we propose a conservation approach designed to promote adaptation that is less dependent on uncertain predictions about the identity of winners and losers. By designing actions to facilitate numerous opportunities for selection across biological and environmental conditions, we can allow nature to pick the winners and increase the probability that ecosystems continue to provide services to humans and other species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems.

PubMed

Wullschleger, Stan D; Epstein, Howard E; Box, Elgene O; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goswami, Santonu; Iversen, Colleen M; Kattge, Jens; Norby, Richard J; van Bodegom, Peter M; Xu, Xiaofeng

2014-07-01

Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be required if we are to overcome these and other shortcomings. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

CO2 fertilization stimulates vegetation productivity but has little impact on hydrology in tropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall; McVicar, Tim; Roderick, Michael; Beck, Hylke

2016-04-01

Tropical rainforests contribute to ~52% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and more than one-third of global terrestrial net primary production. Thus, understanding how tropical rainforests respond to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) is essential for predicting Earth's carbon, water and energy budgets under future climate change. While the Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) technique has greatly advanced our understanding of how boreal and temperate ecosystems respond to eCO2, there are currently no FACE sites available in tropical rainforest ecosystems. Here we firstly examine the trend in long-term (1982-2010) satellite-observed leaf area index and fraction of vegetation light absorption and find only minor changes in these variables in tropical rainforests over years, suggesting that eCO2 has not increased vegetation leaf area in tropical rainforests and therefore any plant response to eCO2 occurs at the leaf-level. Following that, we investigate the long-term physiological response (i.e., leaf-level) of tropical rainforests to eCO2 from three different perspectives by: (1) analyzing long-term runoff and precipitation records in 18 unimpaired tropical rainforest catchments to provide observational evidence on the eCO2 effect from an eco-hydrological perspective; (2) developing an analytical model using gas-exchange theory to predict the effect of eCO2 from a top-down perspective; and (3) interpreting outputs from 10 process-oriented ecosystem models to examine the effect of eCO2 from a bottom-up perspective. Our results show that the observed runoff coefficient (the ratio of runoff over precipitation) and ecosystem evapotranspiration (calculated from catchment water balance) remain relatively constant in 18 unimpaired tropical catchments over 1982-2010, implying an unchanged hydrological partitioning and thus conserved transpiration under eCO2. For the same period, using 'top-down' model based on gas-exchange theory, we predict an increase in plant assimilation (A) driven directly by an enhanced light use efficiency (ɛ) at the leaf-level in response to eCO2, the magnitude of which is about the same as that of eCO2 (i.e., ~12% over 1982-2010). Simulations from ten state-of-the-art 'bottom-up' ecosystem models also confirm that in tropical rainforests, direct effect of eCO2 mainly increases A and ɛ but does not change E. Our findings add to the current limited pool of knowledge regarding the long-term eCO2 impacts in tropical rainforests and provide important scientific guidance for future ecophysiology / ecohydrology modelling and field activities conducted in the area.

Intra- and interspecific tree growth across a long altitudinal gradient in the Peruvian Andes.

PubMed

Rapp, Joshua M; Silman, Miles R; Clark, James S; Girardin, Cecile A J; Galiano, Darcy; Tito, Richard

2012-09-01

Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to climatic gradients are often used to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Across sites in the tropics, primary productivity increases with temperature, suggesting that forest ecosystems will become more productive as temperature rises. However, this trend is confounded with a shift in species composition and so may not reflect the response of in situ forests to warming. In this study, we simultaneously studied tree diameter growth across the altitudinal ranges of species within a single genus across a geographically compact temperature gradient, to separate the direct effect of temperature on tree growth from that of species compositional turnover. Using a Bayesian state space modeling framework we combined data from repeated diameter censuses and dendrometer measurements from across a 1700-m altitudinal gradient collected over six years on over 2400 trees in Weinmannia, a dominant and widespread genus of cloud forest trees in the Andes. Within species, growth showed no consistent trend with altitude, but higher-elevation species had lower growth rates than lower-elevation species, suggesting that species turnover is largely responsible for the positive correlation between productivity and temperature in tropical forests. Our results may indicate a significant difference in how low- and high-latitude forests will respond to climate change, since temperate and boreal tree species are consistently observed to have a positive relationship between growth and temperature. If our results hold for other tropical species, a positive response in ecosystem productivity to increasing temperatures in the Andes will depend on the altitudinal migration of tree species. The rapid pace of climate change, and slow observed rates of migration, suggest a slow, or even initially negative response of ecosystem productivity to warming. Finally, this study shows how the observed scale of biological organization can affect conclusions drawn from studies of ecological phenomena across environmental gradients, and calls into question the common practice in tropical ecology of lumping species at higher taxonomic levels.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-01

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

Opposing Seasonal Trends in Seawater pH and Aragonite Saturation State on the Bermuda Coral Reef Platform Reveal Complex Controls on Seawater Chemistry by Biological and Physical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, A. J.; Bates, N. R.; dePutron, S.; Collins, A.; Neely, K.; Best, M.; Noyes, T.

2011-12-01

To accurately predict future consequences of ocean acidification on coastal environments and ecosystems, it is critical to understand present conditions and variability. As part of the Bermuda ocean acidification and coral reef investigation (BEACON), significant efforts have been dedicated to characterize the complete surface seawater carbonic-acid system at different temporal and spatial scales on the Bermuda coral reef platform to understand current levels and variability in seawater CO2 parameters, reef metabolism, and future potential changes arising from ocean acidification. A four years monthly time-series of seawater carbonic-acid parameters at eight different locations on the Bermuda coral reef platform reveals strong seasonal patterns in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), pH, pCO2, and [HCO3-], and somewhat weaker trends in [CO32-] and saturation state with respect to CaCO3 minerals. Strong spatial gradients are also observed in DIC and TA during summertime owing to reef metabolism, but no or weak spatial gradients of these parameters are observed in the wintertime. Interestingly, maximum pH-sws (~8.15) is observed during wintertime when minimum aragonite saturation state (<3.0) is observed. In contrast, minimum pH-sws (~7.95) is observed in the summertime when maximum aragonite saturation state (>3.70) is observed. The observed trends and gradients point to complex relationships and interactions between seawater chemistry, biology and physics that need to be considered in the context of ocean acidification and in making future predictions on the effects of this perturbation on coral reefs and coastal ecosystems.

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-28

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

Population-Level Transcriptomic Responses of the Southern Ocean Salp Salpa thompsoni to Environment Variability of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucklin, A. C.; Batta Lona, P. G.; Maas, A. E.; O'Neill, R. J.; Wiebe, P. H.

2015-12-01

In response to the changing Antarctic climate, the Southern Ocean salp Salpa thompsoni has shown altered patterns of distribution and abundance that are anticipated to have profound impacts on pelagic food webs and ecosystem dynamics. The physiological and molecular processes that underlay ecological function and biogeographical distribution are key to understanding present-day dynamics and predicting future trajectories. This study examined transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression in relation to biological and physical oceanographic conditions in coastal, shelf and offshore waters of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region during austral spring and summer 2011. Based on field observations and collections, seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of salps of different life stages were associated with differences in water mass structure of the WAP. Our observations are consistent with previous suggestions that bathymetry and currents in Bransfield Strait could generate a retentive cell for an overwintering population of S. thompsoni, which may generate the characteristic salp blooms found throughout the region later in summer. The statistical analysis of transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression revealed differences among salps collected in different seasons and from different habitats (i.e., coastal versus offshore) in the WAP. Gene expression patterns also clustered by station in austral spring - but not summer - collections, suggesting stronger heterogeneity of environmental conditions. During the summer, differentially expressed genes covered a wider range of functions, including those associated with stress responses. Future research using novel molecular transcriptomic / genomic characterization of S. thompsoni will allow more complete understanding of individual-, population-, and species-level responses to environmental variability and prediction of future dynamics of Southern Ocean food webs and ecosystems.

Future internet architecture and cloud ecosystem: A survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Man; Yin, Shiqun

2018-04-01

The Internet has gradually become a social infrastructure, the existing TCP/IP architecture faces many challenges. So future Internet architecture become hot research. This paper introduces two ways of idea about the future research of Internet structure system, probes into the future Internet architecture and the environment of cloud ecosystem. Finally, we focuses the related research, and discuss basic principles and problems of OpenStack.

Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Perkins, Daniel M.; Brown, Lee E.

2010-01-01

Fresh waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change because (i) many species within these fragmented habitats have limited abilities to disperse as the environment changes; (ii) water temperature and availability are climate-dependent; and (iii) many systems are already exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Most climate change studies to date have focused on individuals or species populations, rather than the higher levels of organization (i.e. communities, food webs, ecosystems). We propose that an understanding of the connections between these different levels, which are all ultimately based on individuals, can help to develop a more coherent theoretical framework based on metabolic scaling, foraging theory and ecological stoichiometry, to predict the ecological consequences of climate change. For instance, individual basal metabolic rate scales with body size (which also constrains food web structure and dynamics) and temperature (which determines many ecosystem processes and key aspects of foraging behaviour). In addition, increasing atmospheric CO2 is predicted to alter molar CNP ratios of detrital inputs, which could lead to profound shifts in the stoichiometry of elemental fluxes between consumers and resources at the base of the food web. The different components of climate change (e.g. temperature, hydrology and atmospheric composition) not only affect multiple levels of biological organization, but they may also interact with the many other stressors to which fresh waters are exposed, and future research needs to address these potentially important synergies. PMID:20513717

Carbon-water Cycling in the Critical Zone: Understanding Ecosystem Process Variability Across Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnard, Holly; Brooks, Paul

2016-06-16

One of the largest knowledge gaps in environmental science is the ability to understand and predict how ecosystems will respond to future climate variability. The links between vegetation, hydrology, and climate that control carbon sequestration in plant biomass and soils remain poorly understood. Soil respiration is the second largest carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems, yet there is no consensus on how respiration will change as water availability and temperature co-vary. To address this knowledge gap, we use the variation in soil development and topography across an elevation and climate gradient on the Front Range of Colorado to conduct a naturalmore » experiment that enables us to examine the co-evolution of soil carbon, vegetation, hydrology, and climate in an accessible field laboratory. The goal of this project is to further our ability to combine plant water availability, carbon flux and storage, and topographically driven hydrometrics into a watershed scale predictive model of carbon balance. We hypothesize: (i) landscape structure and hydrology are important controls on soil respiration as a result of spatial variability in both physical and biological drivers: (ii) variation in rates of soil respiration during the growing season is due to corresponding shifts in belowground carbon inputs from vegetation; and (iii) aboveground carbon storage (biomass) and species composition are directly correlated with soil moisture and therefore, can be directly related to subsurface drainage patterns.« less

Forest aging, disturbance and the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Curtis, Peter S; Gough, Christopher M

2018-05-16

Contents Summary I. Introduction II. Forest aging and carbon storage III. Successional trends of NEP in northern deciduous forests IV. Mechanisms sustaining NEP in aging deciduous forests Acknowledgements References SUMMARY: Large areas of forestland in temperate North America, as well as in other parts of the world, are growing older and will soon transition into middle and then late successional stages exceeding 100 yr in age. These ecosystems have been important regional carbon sinks as they recovered from prior anthropogenic and natural disturbance, but their future sink strength, or annual rate of carbon storage, is in question. Ecosystem development theory predicts a steady decline in annual carbon storage as forests age, but newly available, direct measurements of forest net CO 2 exchange challenge that prediction. In temperate deciduous forests, where moderate severity disturbance regimes now often prevail, there is little evidence for any marked decline in carbon storage rate during mid-succession. Rather, an increase in physical and biological complexity under these disturbance regimes may drive increases in resource-use efficiency and resource availability that help to maintain significant carbon storage in these forests well past the century mark. Conservation of aging deciduous forests may therefore sustain the terrestrial carbon sink, whilst providing other goods and services afforded by these biologically and structurally complex ecosystems. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

PubMed Central

Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

2005-01-01

Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian–zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response. PMID:17148349

Scale-dependent performances of CMIP5 earth system models in simulating terrestrial vegetation carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.; Yan, Y.; Hararuk, O.

2013-12-01

Mitigation of global changes will depend on reliable projection for the future situation. As the major tools to predict future climate, Earth System Models (ESMs) used in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report have incorporated carbon cycle components, which account for the important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs; and therefore are expected to provide more detailed and more certain projections. However, ESMs are never perfect; and evaluating the ESMs can help us to identify uncertainties in prediction and give the priorities for model development. In this study, we benchmarked carbon in live vegetation in the terrestrial ecosystems simulated by 19 ESMs models from CMIP5 with an observationally estimated data set of global carbon vegetation pool 'Olson's Major World Ecosystem Complexes Ranked by Carbon in Live Vegetation: An Updated Database Using the GLC2000 Land Cover Product' by Gibbs (2006). Our aim is to evaluate the ability of ESMs to reproduce the global vegetation carbon pool at different scales and what are the possible causes for the bias. We found that the performance CMIP5 ESMs is very scale-dependent. While CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CESM1-FASTCHEM and CESM1-WACCM, and NorESM1-M and NorESM1-ME (they share the same model structure) have very similar global sums with the observation data but they usually perform poorly at grid cell and biome scale. In contrast, MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ESM-CHEM simulate the best on at grid cell and biome scale but have larger differences in global sums than others. Our results will help improve CMIP5 ESMs for more reliable prediction.

A conceptual framework for hydropeaking mitigation.

PubMed

Bruder, Andreas; Tonolla, Diego; Schweizer, Steffen P; Vollenweider, Stefan; Langhans, Simone D; Wüest, Alfred

2016-10-15

Hydropower plants are an important source of renewable energy. In the near future, high-head storage hydropower plants will gain further importance as a key element of large-scale electricity production systems. However, these power plants can cause hydropeaking which is characterized by intense unnatural discharge fluctuations in downstream river reaches. Consequences on environmental conditions in these sections are diverse and include changes to the hydrology, hydraulics and sediment regime on very short time scales. These altered conditions affect river ecosystems and biota, for instance due to drift and stranding of fishes and invertebrates. Several structural and operational measures exist to mitigate hydropeaking and the adverse effects on ecosystems, but estimating and predicting their ecological benefit remains challenging. We developed a conceptual framework to support the ecological evaluation of hydropeaking mitigation measures based on current mitigation projects in Switzerland and the scientific literature. We refined this framework with an international panel of hydropeaking experts. The framework is based on a set of indicators, which covers all hydrological phases of hydropeaking and the most important affected abiotic and biotic processes. Effects of mitigation measures on these indicators can be predicted quantitatively using prediction tools such as discharge scenarios and numerical habitat models. Our framework allows a comparison of hydropeaking effects among alternative mitigation measures, to the pre-mitigation situation, and to reference river sections. We further identified key issues that should be addressed to increase the efficiency of current and future projects. They include the spatial and temporal context of mitigation projects, the interactions of river morphology with hydropeaking effects, and the role of appropriate monitoring to evaluate the success of mitigation projects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the ecosystem water use efficiency and gross primary productivity in boreal forest based on tree ring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Zhuang, Q.

2016-12-01

Climatic change affects the plant physiological and biogeochemistry processes, and therefore on the ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE). Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of WUE would help us understand the adaptability of ecosystem to variable climate conditions. Tree ring data have great potential in addressing the forest response to climatic changes compared with mechanistic model simulations, eddy flux measurement and manipulative experiments. Here, we collected the tree ring isotopic carbon data in 12 boreal forest sites to develop a multiple linear regression model, and the model was extrapolated to the whole boreal region to obtain the WUE spatial and temporal variation from 1948 to 2010. Two algorithms were also used to estimate the inter-annual gross primary productivity (GPP) based on our derived WUE. Our results demonstrated that most of boreal regions showed significant increasing WUE trend during the period except parts of Alaska. The spatial averaged annual mean WUE was predicted to increase by 13%, from 2.3±0.4 g C kg-1 H2O at 1948 to 2.6±0.7 g C kg-1 H2O at 2012, which was much higher than other land surface models. Our predicted GPP by the WUE definition algorithm was comparable with site observation, while for the revised light use efficiency algorithm, GPP estimation was higher than site observation as well as than land surface models. In addition, the increasing GPP trends by two algorithms were similar with land surface model simulations. This is the first study to evaluate regional WUE and GPP in forest ecosystem based on tree ring data and future work should consider other variables (elevation, nitrogen deposition) that influence tree ring isotopic signals and the dual-isotope approach may help improve predicting the inter-annual WUE variation.

Disturbance dynamics and ecosystem-based forest management

Treesearch

Kalev Jogiste; W. Keith Moser; Malle Mandre

2005-01-01

Ecosystem-based management is intended to balance ecological, social and economic values of sustainable resource management. The desired future state of forest ecosystem is usually defined through productivity, biodiversity, stability or other terms. However, ecosystem-based management may produce an unbalanced emphasis on different components. Although ecosystem-based...

Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations: the H2020 Project ECOPOTENTIAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems provide essential goods and services to human societies. In the last decades, however, anthropogenic pressures caused serious threats to ecosystem integrity, functions and processes, potentially leading to the loss of essential ecosystem services. ECOPOTENTIAL is a large European-funded H2020 project which focuses its activities on a targeted set of internationally recognised protected areas in Europe, European Territories and beyond, blending Earth Observations from remote sensing and field measurements, data analysis and modelling of current and future ecosystem conditions and services. The definition of future scenarios is based on climate and land-use change projections, addressing the issue of uncertainties and uncertainty propagation across the modelling chain. The ECOPOTENTIAL project addresses cross-scale geosphere-biosphere interactions and landscape-ecosystem dynamics at regional to continental scales, using geostatistical methods and the emerging approaches in Macrosystem Ecology and Earth Critical Zone studies, addressing long-term and large-scale environmental and ecological challenges. The project started its activities in 2015, by defining a set of storylines which allow to tackle some of the most crucial issues in the assessment of present conditions and the estimate of the future state of selected ecosystem services. In this contribution, we focus on some of the main storylines of the project and discuss the general approach, focusing on the interplay of data and models and on the estimate of projection uncertainties.

Water Resources and Sustainable Agriculture in 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.

2008-05-01

Global agriculture faces some unique challenges and opportunities for the rest of this century. The need for food, feed and fiber will continues to grow as the world population continue to increase in the future. Agricultural ecosystems are also expected to be the source of a significant portion of renewable energy and fuels around the world, without further compromising the integrity of the natural resources base. How can agriculture continue to provide these services to meet the growing needs of world population while sustaining the integrity of agricultural ecosystems and natural resources, the very foundation it depends on? In the last century, scientific discoveries and technological innovations in agriculture resulted in significant increase in food, feed and fiber production globally, while the total amount of water, energy, fertilizers and other input used to achieve this growth remained the same or even decreased significantly in some parts of the world. Scientific and technical advances in understanding global and regional water and energy cycles, water resources management, soil and water conservation practices, weather prediction, plant breeding and biotechnology, and information and communication technologies contributed to this tremendous achievement. The projected increase in global population, urbanization, and changing lifestyles will continue the pressure on both agriculture and other managed and natural ecosystems to provide necessary goods and services for the rest of this century. To meet these challenges, we must obtain the requisite scientific and technical advances in the functioning of Earth's water, energy, carbon and biogeochemical cycles. We also need to apply the knowledge we gain and technologies we develop in assessing Earth's ecosystems' conditions, and their management and stewardship. In agricultural ecosystems, management of soil and water quality and quantity together with development of new varieties of plants based on advances in genomic, genetics, breeding and applied biotechnologies are a key to our ability to address these challenges. We must also continue to develop agronomic practices that sustain the integrity of natural resources and conserve energy on one-hand while maximizing agricultural production per unit area of land on the other hand. This will require managing agricultural ecosystems for their multiple functions and services together, instead of looking at each function/service in isolation. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the scientific and technical knowledge required for sustainable management of agricultural ecosystems and associated natural resources. We will describe the soil, water and energy research needs/priorities in agriculture. We will also provide some examples of recent accomplishments and future directions in developing decision support tools for assessing the impacts of weather and climate variations and change, and their risk to agricultural ecosystems. We will then focus on opportunities and challenges associated with measurement, monitoring and modeling of soil moisture and its use in management and operation of agricultural ecosystems. The overall intent of this presentation is to stimulate some discussion on future directions and priorities for soil, water and energy research in agricultural ecosystems, and how the knowledge we gain from this research can be conveyed to the users for risk assessment, decision making, and multi-service ecosystem management purposes.

Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

2017-12-01

High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better representation of the influence of livestock on fuels and fire management is essential for modeling long-term trends. In northern ecosystems, climate-driven changes in lightning ignition may accelerate the northward migration of boreal forests into arctic tundra, increasing the vulnerability of permafrost carbon.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

A review of climate-driven mismatches between interdependent phenophases in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison; Caffarra, Amelia; O'Neill, Bridget F

2011-11-01

Mismatches in phenology between mutually dependent species, resulting from climate change, can have far-reaching consequences throughout an ecosystem at both higher and lower trophic levels. Rising temperatures, due to climate warming, have resulted in advances in development and changes in behaviour of many organisms around the world. However, not all species or phenophases are responding to this increase in temperature at the same rate, thus creating a disruption to previously synchronised interdependent key life-cycle stages. Mismatches have been reported between plants and pollinators, predators and prey, and pests and hosts. Here, we review mismatches between interdependent phenophases at different trophic levels resulting from climate change. We categorized the studies into (1) terrestrial (natural and agricultural) ecosystems, and (2) aquatic (freshwater and marine) ecosystems. As expected, we found reports of 'winners' and 'losers' in each system, such as earlier emergence of prey enabling partial avoidance of predators, potential reductions in crop yield if herbivore pests emerge before their predators and possible declines in marine biodiversity due to disruption in plankton-fish phenologies. Furthermore, in the marine environment rising temperatures have resulted in synchrony in a previously mismatched prey and predator system, resulting in an abrupt population decline in the prey species. The examples reviewed suggest that more research into the complex interactions between species in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is necessary to make conclusive predictions of how climate warming may impact the fragile balances within ecosystems in future.

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime OC concentrations in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, D. V.; Logan, J. A.; Mickley, L. J.; Park, R. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2006-12-01

Increased forest fire activity in the Western United States appears to be driven by increasing spring and summer temperatures. Here we make a first estimate of how climate-driven changes in fire activity will influence summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations in the Western US. We use output from a general circulation model (GCM) combined with area burned regressions to predict how area burned will change between present day and 2050. Calculated area burned is used to create future emission estimates for the Western U.S. and we use a global chemical transport model (CTM) to predict future changes in OC concentrations. Stepwise linear regression is used to determine the best relationships between observed area burned for 1980- 2004 and variables chosen from temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall and drought indices from the Candaian Fire Weather Index Model. Best predictors are ecosytem dependent but typically include mean summer temperature and mean drought code. In forest ecosystems of the Western U.S. our regressions explain 50-60% of the variance in annual area burned. Between 2000 and 2050 increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, as predicted by the GISS GCM, cause mean area burned in the western U.S. to increase by 30-55%. We use the GEOS-Chem CTM to show that these increased emissions result in an increase in summertime western U.S. OC concentrations by 55% over current concentrations. Our results show that the predicted increase in future wild fires will have important consequences for western US air quality and visibility.

Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal

PubMed Central

Assis, J.; Berecibar, E.; Claro, B.; Alberto, F.; Reed, D.; Raimondi, P.; Serrão, E. A.

2017-01-01

Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of ~30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting ~38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning. PMID:28276501

Impact of perceived importance of ecosystem services and stated financial constraints on willingness to pay for riparian meadow restoration in Flanders (Belgium).

PubMed

Chen, Wendy Y; Aertsens, Joris; Liekens, Inge; Broekx, Steven; De Nocker, Leo

2014-08-01

The strategic importance of ecosystem service valuation as an operational basis for policy decisions on natural restoration has been increasingly recognized in order to align the provision of ecosystem services with the expectation of human society. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is widely used to quantify various ecosystem services. However, two areas of concern arise: (1) whether people value specific functional ecosystem services and overlook some intrinsic aspects of natural restoration, and (2) whether people understand the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules given in the contingent scenarios. Using a peri-urban riparian meadow restoration project in Flanders, Belgium as a case, we explored the impacts of residents' perceived importance of various ecosystem services and stated financial constraints on their willingness-to-pay for the proposed restoration project employing the CVM. The results indicated that people tended to value all the benefits of riparian ecosystem restoration concurrently, although they accorded different importances to each individual category of ecosystem services. A longer payment scheme can help the respondents to think more about the flow of ecosystem services into future generations. A weak temporal embedding effect can be detected, which might be attributed to respondents' concern about current financial constraints, rather than financial bindings associated with their income and perceived future financial constraints. This demonstrates the multidimensionality of respondents' financial concerns in CV. This study sheds light on refining future CV studies, especially with regard to public expectation of ecosystem services and the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules.

Impact of Perceived Importance of Ecosystem Services and Stated Financial Constraints on Willingness to Pay for Riparian Meadow Restoration in Flanders (Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wendy Y.; Aertsens, Joris; Liekens, Inge; Broekx, Steven; De Nocker, Leo

2014-08-01

The strategic importance of ecosystem service valuation as an operational basis for policy decisions on natural restoration has been increasingly recognized in order to align the provision of ecosystem services with the expectation of human society. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is widely used to quantify various ecosystem services. However, two areas of concern arise: (1) whether people value specific functional ecosystem services and overlook some intrinsic aspects of natural restoration, and (2) whether people understand the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules given in the contingent scenarios. Using a peri-urban riparian meadow restoration project in Flanders, Belgium as a case, we explored the impacts of residents' perceived importance of various ecosystem services and stated financial constraints on their willingness-to-pay for the proposed restoration project employing the CVM. The results indicated that people tended to value all the benefits of riparian ecosystem restoration concurrently, although they accorded different importances to each individual category of ecosystem services. A longer payment scheme can help the respondents to think more about the flow of ecosystem services into future generations. A weak temporal embedding effect can be detected, which might be attributed to respondents' concern about current financial constraints, rather than financial bindings associated with their income and perceived future financial constraints. This demonstrates the multidimensionality of respondents' financial concerns in CV. This study sheds light on refining future CV studies, especially with regard to public expectation of ecosystem services and the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules.

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages.

PubMed

Radinger, Johannes; Hölker, Franz; Horký, Pavel; Slavík, Ondřej; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Wolter, Christian

2016-04-01

River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior

PubMed Central

O'Beirne, M. D.; Werne, J. P.; Hecky, R. E.; Johnson, T. C.; Katsev, S.; Reavie, E. D.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems. PMID:28598413

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

Cross-continental comparison of the functional composition and carbon allocation of two altitudinal forest transects in Ecuador and Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauters, Marijn; Bruneel, Stijn; Demol, Miro; Taveirne, Cys; Van Der Heyden, Dries; Boeckx, Pascal; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Cizungu, Landry; Verbeeck, Hans

2016-04-01

Tropical forests are key actors in the global carbon cycle. Predicting future responses of these forests to global change is challenging, but important for global climate models. However, our current understanding of such responses is limited, due to the complexity of forest ecosystems and the slow dynamics that inherently form these systems. Our understanding of ecosystem ecology and functioning could greatly benefit from experimental setups including strong environmental gradients in the tropics, as found on altitudinal transects. We setup two such transects in both South-America and Africa, focussing on shifts in carbon allocation, forest structure and functional composition. By a cross-continental comparison of both transects, we will gain insight in how different or alike both tropical forests biomes are in their responses, and how universal the observed adaption mechanisms are.

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

PubMed

O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

2017-06-09

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

The role of fish, wildlife, and plant research in ecosystem management

Treesearch

Susan C. Loeb; Michael R. Lennartz; Robert C. Szaro

1998-01-01

This paper examines the concepts of ecology, ecosystems, and ecosystem management and then further examines the role of fish, wildlife, and plant ecology research in ecosystem management, past, present, and future. It is often assumed that research in support of ecosystem management will entail comprehensive studies of entire ecosystems, whereas research programs that...

MONITORING ECOSYSTEMS FROM SPACE: THE GLOBAL FIDUCIALS PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Images from satellites provide valuable insights to changes in land-cover and ecosystems. Long- term monitoring of ecosystem change using historical satellite imagery can provide quantitative measures of ecological processes and allows for estimation of future ecosystem condition...

Plant functional traits predict green roof ecosystem services.

PubMed

Lundholm, Jeremy; Tran, Stephanie; Gebert, Luke

2015-02-17

Plants make important contributions to the services provided by engineered ecosystems such as green roofs. Ecologists use plant species traits as generic predictors of geographical distribution, interactions with other species, and ecosystem functioning, but this approach has been little used to optimize engineered ecosystems. Four plant species traits (height, individual leaf area, specific leaf area, and leaf dry matter content) were evaluated as predictors of ecosystem properties and services in a modular green roof system planted with 21 species. Six indicators of ecosystem services, incorporating thermal, hydrological, water quality, and carbon sequestration functions, were predicted by the four plant traits directly or indirectly via their effects on aggregate ecosystem properties, including canopy density and albedo. Species average height and specific leaf area were the most useful traits, predicting several services via effects on canopy density or growth rate. This study demonstrates that easily measured plant traits can be used to select species to optimize green roof performance across multiple key services.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

Assessing impacts of climate change on species range shifts and extirpation on the local scale through Late Pleistocene fossils of Sequoia sempervirens in the Los Angeles Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, J.; MacDonald, G. M.

2017-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more apparent, increased importance must be placed on species' response to changing environments for ecosystem management and threat mitigation. While many studies have focused on the response of ecosystem types, few venture to the species level, as true limiting factors of species can be difficult to discern. Paleoproxies provide a valuable resource for predicting responses to future change through observation of similar responses in the past. This study uses plant paleorecords of Sequoia sempervirens to more closely examine the relationship of local climate change and species response in the Los Angeles Basin during the Late Pleistocene. The modern distribution of S. sempervirens has a southern extent, today, reaching the south end of Monterey County, California. Fossilized material from the La Brea Tar Pits extends that range to the farthest known point south, 200 miles from the southernmost modern stands, and has previously not been dated. A coupled analysis of 8 S. sempervirens specimens preserved in asphalt using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) dates paired with δC13 values will help to illuminate patterns of changing climate on a local scale, as well as provide valuable data on primary environmental factors in plant community change. Understanding the intricacies of species' range shifts and factors behind local extirpation on a local scale is necessary to interpret species response in the past as well as predicting response in the future.

Reconstructing disturbances and their biogeochemical consequences over multiple timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Higuera, Philip E.; Gavin, Daniel G.; Perakis, Steven S.; Mack, Michelle C.; Alexander, Heather; Battles, John; Biondi, Franco; Buma, Brian; Colombaroli, Daniele; Enders, Sara K.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Marshall, John; McGlone, Matt; Morris, Jesse L.; Nave, Lucas E.; Shuman, Bryan; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Urrego, Dunia H.; Wardle, David A.; Williams, Christopher J.; Williams, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Ongoing changes in disturbance regimes are predicted to cause acute changes in ecosystem structure and function in the coming decades, but many aspects of these predictions are uncertain. A key challenge is to improve the predictability of postdisturbance biogeochemical trajectories at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem ecologists and paleoecologists have generated complementary data sets about disturbance (type, severity, frequency) and ecosystem response (net primary productivity, nutrient cycling) spanning decadal to millennial timescales. Here, we take the first steps toward a full integration of these data sets by reviewing how disturbances are reconstructed using dendrochronological and sedimentary archives and by summarizing the conceptual frameworks for carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic responses to disturbances. Key research priorities include further development of paleoecological techniques that reconstruct both disturbances and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In addition, mechanistic detail from disturbance experiments, long-term observations, and chronosequences can help increase the understanding of ecosystem resilience.

Biogeochemical significance of pelagic ecosystem function: an end-Cretaceous case study

PubMed Central

Penman, Donald E.; Rae, James W. B.

2016-01-01

Pelagic ecosystem function is integral to global biogeochemical cycling, and plays a major role in modulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2). Uncertainty as to the effects of human activities on marine ecosystem function hinders projection of future atmospheric pCO2. To this end, events in the geological past can provide informative case studies in the response of ecosystem function to environmental and ecological changes. Around the Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K–Pg) boundary, two such events occurred: Deccan large igneous province (LIP) eruptions and massive bolide impact at the Yucatan Peninsula. Both perturbed the environment, but only the impact coincided with marine mass extinction. As such, we use these events to directly contrast the response of marine biogeochemical cycling to environmental perturbation with and without changes in global species richness. We measure this biogeochemical response using records of deep-sea carbonate preservation. We find that Late Cretaceous Deccan volcanism prompted transient deep-sea carbonate dissolution of a larger magnitude and timescale than predicted by geochemical models. Even so, the effect of volcanism on carbonate preservation was slight compared with bolide impact. Empirical records and geochemical models support a pronounced increase in carbonate saturation state for more than 500 000 years following the mass extinction of pelagic carbonate producers at the K–Pg boundary. These examples highlight the importance of pelagic ecosystems in moderating climate and ocean chemistry. PMID:27114586

Satellite Observations of Coastal Processes from a Geostationary Orbit: Application to estuarine, coastal, and ocean resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzortziou, M.; Mannino, A.; Schaeffer, B. A.

2016-02-01

Coastal areas are among the most vulnerable yet economically valuable ecosystems on Earth. Estuaries and coastal oceans are critically important as essential habitat for marine life, as highly productive ecosystems and a rich source of food for human consumption, as a strong economic driver for coastal communities, and as a highly dynamic interface between land and ocean carbon and nutrient cycles. Still, our present capabilities to remotely observe coastal ocean processes from space are limited in their temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution. These limitations, in turn, constrain our ability to observe and understand biogeochemical processes in highly dynamic coastal ecosystems, or predict their response and resilience to current and future pressures including sea level rise, coastal urbanization, and anthropogenic pollution.On a geostationary orbit, and with high spatial resolution and hyper-spectral capabilities, NASA's Decadal Survey mission GEO-CAPE (GEO-stationary for Coastal and Air Pollution Events) will provide, for the first time, a satellite view of the short-term changes and evolution of processes along the economically invaluable but, simultaneously, particularly vulnerable near-shore waters of the United States. GEO-CAPE will observe U.S. lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions at sufficient temporal and spatial scales to resolve near-shore processes, tides, coastal fronts, and eddies, track sediments and pollutants, capture diurnal biogeochemical processes and rates of transformation, monitor harmful algal blooms and large oil spills, observe episodic events and coastal hazards. Here we discuss the GEO-CAPE applications program and the new capabilities afforded by this future satellite mission, to identify potential user communities, incorporate end-user needs into future mission planning, and allow integration of science and management at the coastal interface.

Satellite Observations of Coastal Processes from a Geostationary Orbit: Application to estuarine, coastal, and ocean resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzortziou, M.; Mannino, A.; Schaeffer, B. A.

2016-12-01

Coastal areas are among the most vulnerable yet economically valuable ecosystems on Earth. Estuaries and coastal oceans are critically important as essential habitat for marine life, as highly productive ecosystems and a rich source of food for human consumption, as a strong economic driver for coastal communities, and as a highly dynamic interface between land and ocean carbon and nutrient cycles. Still, our present capabilities to remotely observe coastal ocean processes from space are limited in their temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution. These limitations, in turn, constrain our ability to observe and understand biogeochemical processes in highly dynamic coastal ecosystems, or predict their response and resilience to current and future pressures including sea level rise, coastal urbanization, and anthropogenic pollution.On a geostationary orbit, and with high spatial resolution and hyper-spectral capabilities, NASA's Decadal Survey mission GEO-CAPE (GEO-stationary for Coastal and Air Pollution Events) will provide, for the first time, a satellite view of the short-term changes and evolution of processes along the economically invaluable but, simultaneously, particularly vulnerable near-shore waters of the United States. GEO-CAPE will observe U.S. lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions at sufficient temporal and spatial scales to resolve near-shore processes, tides, coastal fronts, and eddies, track sediments and pollutants, capture diurnal biogeochemical processes and rates of transformation, monitor harmful algal blooms and large oil spills, observe episodic events and coastal hazards. Here we discuss the GEO-CAPE applications program and the new capabilities afforded by this future satellite mission, to identify potential user communities, incorporate end-user needs into future mission planning, and allow integration of science and management at the coastal interface.

OysterFutures: Integrating Stakeholder Objectives with Natural System Models to Promote Sustainable Natural Resource Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

North, E. W.; Blair, J.; Cornwell, J. C.; Freitag, A. E.; Gawde, R. K.; Hartley, T. W.; Hood, R. R.; Jones, R. M.; Miller, T. J.; Thomas, J. E.; Wainger, L. A.; Wilberg, M. J.

2016-02-01

Achieving effective natural resource management is challenged by multiple and often competing objectives, a restricted set of policy options, and uncertainty in the performance of those options. Yet, managers need policies that allow continued use of natural resources while ensuring access for future generations and maintenance of ecosystem services. Formal approaches are needed that will assist managers and stakeholders in choosing policy options that have a high likelihood of achieving social, ecological, and economic goals. The goal of this project, OysterFutures, is to address this need by improving the use of predictive models to support sustainable natural resource policy and management. A stakeholder-centered process will be used to build an integrated model that combines estuarine physics, oyster life history, and the ecosystem services that oysters provide (e.g., harvest, water quality) to forecast outcomes under alternative management strategies. Through a series of facilitated meetings, stakeholders will participate in a science-based collaborative process which will allow them to project how well policies are expected to meet their objectives using the integrated model. This iterative process will ensure that the model will incorporate the complex human uses of the ecosystem as well as focus on the outcomes most important to the stakeholders. In addition, a study of the socioeconomic drivers of stakeholder involvement, information flow, use and influence, and policy formation will be undertaken to improve the process, enhance implementation success of recommended policies, and provide new ideas for integrating natural and social sciences, and scientists, in sustainable resource management. In this presentation, the strategy for integrating natural system models, stakeholder views, and sociological studies as well as methods for selecting stakeholders and facilitating stakeholder meetings will be described and discussed.

Fluvial Sediments as GeoArchives in the Tsauchab Valley, Namibia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Völkel, Jörg; Bens, Oliver; Eden, Marie; Heine, Klaus; Hürkamp, Kerstin

2015-04-01

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the landscape can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. In consequence of changing climate, major regional impacts on the human habitat is expected and must be addressed in modern land-use planning and management strategies which in turn has to rely on a diligent assessment of the nature of possible impacts on regional environments. In warm arid and semi-arid climatic zones, land use can result in landscape degradation, leading to enhanced activity of earth surface processes. Climatic changes can also be instrumental in producing landscape and ecosystem changes, similar to earth surface processes brought about by land-use change. However, predictions of the future behaviour of complex geo/bio-systems are limited, because these are open systems. Apart from modelling a promising approach to better understand the processes of environment responses is to learn lessons from past variability, i.e. searching for 'palaeo-analogue' situations. These are time intervals in the past with boundary conditions (e.g. sea-level changes, atmospheric circulation patterns) more similar to future scenarios than to the present day situation. Signals of these past climate and ecosystem changes are stored in a variety of natural continental and marine archives (sediments, biogens). These geoarchives have the potential for providing researchers with high-resolution data for the reconstruction of palaeo-ecosystems and their dynamics. The influence of key forcing variables and their effects extracted from the geoarchives will be cross-checked in order to validate and adjust models of present and future processes. This knowledge will help justify and calibrate prognostic scenarios in order to deliver proxy-data for southern-hemisphere records. - The project "GeoArchives" is funded by BMBF within the SPACES-Program.

Predicting fire behavior in U.S. Mediterranean ecosystems

Treesearch

Frank A. Albini; Earl B. Anderson

1982-01-01

Quantification and methods of prediction of wildland fire behavior are discussed briefly and factors of particular relevance to the prediction of fire behavior in Mediterranean ecosystems are reviewed. A computer-based system which uses relevant fuel information and current weather data to predict fire behavior is in operation in southern California. Some of the...

Detecting Emergence of Acidification and Warming as Stressors for Coral Reef Regions using Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, A. T.

2015-12-01

Coral reef ecosystems rely on complex interactions between biological, biogeochemical, and physical processes to ensure their survival and resilience. However, both human interaction and anthropogenic climate change have negatively impacted the prosperity of these regions, resulting in a crucial need to understand and predict the future of important biogeochemical and physical stressors. Contemporary changes to these relationships and environmental conditions in coral reef ecosystems are a mixture of anthropogenic contributions and natural variability (e.g. ENSO) of the climate system. To better quantify the uncertainty in future projections, it is exceedingly necessary to differentiate between these two contributors. In this study we look at acidification and warming stressors in the Galapagos, Coral Triangle, and Hawaiian islands regions. We use a suite of hindcast simulations (a 30-member large initial condition ensemble) done with an Earth Systems Model (GFDL-ESM2M) in order quantify the degree to which natural variability alters the emergence time-scales of anthropogenically-induced changes to ecosystem drivers such as pH, ΩArag, and SST. A comparison of output from a suit of CMIP5 models will be used to evaluate model uncertainty for the same regions. Simulated trends and variability in these ecosystem drivers were then compared to observed trends over the three Pacific regions. Evidently the models and observed trends proved invaluable for testing the hypothesis addressing the presence of a temporal hierarchy between emergence, defined by a signal-to-noise ratio, of acidification stressors and temperature as a stressor. Furthermore, challenges in deconvolving anthropogenic and natural contributions to stressor trends will be discussed for each of the three sites.

Sea anemones may thrive in a high CO2 world.

PubMed

Suggett, David J; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Rodolfo-Metalpa, Riccardo; Boatman, Toby G; Payton, Ross; Tye Pettay, D; Johnson, Vivienne R; Warner, Mark E; Lawson, Tracy

2012-10-01

Increased seawater pCO 2 , and in turn 'ocean acidification' (OA), is predicted to profoundly impact marine ecosystem diversity and function this century. Much research has already focussed on calcifying reef-forming corals (Class: Anthozoa) that appear particularly susceptible to OA via reduced net calcification. However, here we show that OA-like conditions can simultaneously enhance the ecological success of non-calcifying anthozoans, which not only play key ecological and biogeochemical roles in present day benthic ecosystems but also represent a model organism should calcifying anthozoans exist as less calcified (soft-bodied) forms in future oceans. Increased growth (abundance and size) of the sea anemone (Anemonia viridis) population was observed along a natural CO 2 gradient at Vulcano, Italy. Both gross photosynthesis (P G ) and respiration (R) increased with pCO 2 indicating that the increased growth was, at least in part, fuelled by bottom up (CO 2 stimulation) of metabolism. The increase of P G outweighed that of R and the genetic identity of the symbiotic microalgae (Symbiodinium spp.) remained unchanged (type A19) suggesting proximity to the vent site relieved CO 2 limitation of the anemones' symbiotic microalgal population. Our observations of enhanced productivity with pCO 2 , which are consistent with previous reports for some calcifying corals, convey an increase in fitness that may enable non-calcifying anthozoans to thrive in future environments, i.e. higher seawater pCO 2 . Understanding how CO 2 -enhanced productivity of non- (and less-) calcifying anthozoans applies more widely to tropical ecosystems is a priority where such organisms can dominate benthic ecosystems, in particular following localized anthropogenic stress. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A functional trait perspective on plant invasion

PubMed Central

Drenovsky, Rebecca E.; Grewell, Brenda J.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Funk, Jennifer L.; James, Jeremy J.; Molinari, Nicole; Parker, Ingrid M.; Richards, Christina L.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Global environmental change will affect non-native plant invasions, with profound potential impacts on native plant populations, communities and ecosystems. In this context, we review plant functional traits, particularly those that drive invader abundance (invasiveness) and impacts, as well as the integration of these traits across multiple ecological scales, and as a basis for restoration and management. Scope We review the concepts and terminology surrounding functional traits and how functional traits influence processes at the individual level. We explore how phenotypic plasticity may lead to rapid evolution of novel traits facilitating invasiveness in changing environments and then ‘scale up’ to evaluate the relative importance of demographic traits and their links to invasion rates. We then suggest a functional trait framework for assessing per capita effects and, ultimately, impacts of invasive plants on plant communities and ecosystems. Lastly, we focus on the role of functional trait-based approaches in invasive species management and restoration in the context of rapid, global environmental change. Conclusions To understand how the abundance and impacts of invasive plants will respond to rapid environmental changes it is essential to link trait-based responses of invaders to changes in community and ecosystem properties. To do so requires a comprehensive effort that considers dynamic environmental controls and a targeted approach to understand key functional traits driving both invader abundance and impacts. If we are to predict future invasions, manage those at hand and use restoration technology to mitigate invasive species impacts, future research must focus on functional traits that promote invasiveness and invader impacts under changing conditions, and integrate major factors driving invasions from individual to ecosystem levels. PMID:22589328

Analysis of Business Connections Utilizing Theory of Topology of Random Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trelewicz, Jennifer Q.; Volovich, Igor V.

2006-03-01

A business ecosystem is a system that describes interactions between organizations. In this paper, we build a theoretical framework that defines a model which can be used to analyze the business ecosystem. The basic concepts within the framework are organizations, business connections, and market, that are all defined in the paper. Many researchers analyze the performance and structure of business using the workflow of the business. Our work in business connections answers a different set of questions, concerning the monetary value in the business ecosystem, rather than the task-interaction view that is provided by workflow analysis. We apply methods for analysis of the topology of complex networks, characterized by the concepts of small path length, clustering, and scale-free degree distributions. To model the dynamics of the business ecosystem we analyze the notion of the state of an organization at a given instant of time. We point out that the notion of state in this case is fundamentally different from the concept of state of the system which is used in classical or quantum physics. To describe the state of the organization at a given time one has to know the probability of payments to contracts which in fact depend on the future behavior of the agents on the market. Therefore methods of p-adic analysis are appropriate to explore such a behavior. Microeconomic and macroeconomic factors are indivisible and moreover the actual state of the organization depends on the future. In this framework some simple models are analyzed in detail. Company strategy can be influenced by analysis of models, which can provide a probabilistic understanding of the market, giving degrees of predictability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise.

PubMed

Saunders, Megan I; Leon, Javier; Phinn, Stuart R; Callaghan, David P; O'Brien, Katherine R; Roelfsema, Chris M; Lovelock, Catherine E; Lyons, Mitchell B; Mumby, Peter J

2013-08-01

The distribution and abundance of seagrass ecosystems could change significantly over the coming century due to sea level rise (SLR). Coastal managers require mechanistic understanding of the processes affecting seagrass response to SLR to maximize their conservation and associated provision of ecosystem services. In Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, vast seagrass meadows supporting populations of sea turtles and dugongs are juxtaposed with the multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. Here, the interactive effects of predicted SLR, changes in water clarity, and land use on future distributions of seagrass in Moreton Bay were quantified. A habitat distribution model of present day seagrass in relation to benthic irradiance and wave height was developed which correctly classified habitats in 83% of cases. Spatial predictions of seagrass and presence derived from the model and bathymetric data were used to initiate a SLR inundation model. Bathymetry was iteratively modified based on SLR and sedimentary accretion in seagrass to simulate potential seagrass habitat at 10 year time steps until 2100. The area of seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 under a scenario of SLR of 1.1 m. A scenario including the removal of impervious surfaces, such as roads and houses, from newly inundated regions, demonstrated that managed retreat of the shoreline could potentially reduce the overall decline in seagrass habitat to just 5%. The predicted reduction in area of seagrass habitat could be offset by an improvement in water clarity of 30%. Greater improvements in water clarity would be necessary for larger magnitudes of SLR. Management to improve water quality will provide present and future benefits to seagrasses under climate change and should be a priority for managers seeking to compensate for the effects of global change on these valuable habitats. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

2014-12-01

Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

Plant Functional Group Composition Modifies the Effects of Precipitation Change on Grassland Ecosystem Function

PubMed Central

Fry, Ellen L.; Manning, Pete; Allen, David G. P.; Hurst, Alex; Everwand, Georg; Rimmler, Martin; Power, Sally A.

2013-01-01

Temperate grassland ecosystems face a future of precipitation change, which can alter community composition and ecosystem functions through reduced soil moisture and waterlogging. There is evidence that functionally diverse plant communities contain a wider range of water use and resource capture strategies, resulting in greater resistance of ecosystem function to precipitation change. To investigate this interaction between composition and precipitation change we performed a field experiment for three years in successional grassland in southern England. This consisted of two treatments. The first, precipitation change, simulated end of century predictions, and consisted of a summer drought phase alongside winter rainfall addition. The second, functional group identity, divided the plant community into three groups based on their functional traits- broadly described as perennials, caespitose grasses and annuals- and removed these groups in a factorial design. Ecosystem functions related to C, N and water cycling were measured regularly. Effects of functional groupidentity were apparent, with the dominant trend being that process rates were higher under control conditions where a range of perennial species were present. E.g. litter decomposition rates were significantly higher in plots containing several perennial species, the group with the highest average leaf N content. Process rates were also very strongly affected by the precipitation change treatmentwhen perennial plant species were dominant, but not where the community contained a high abundance of annual species and caespitose grasses. This contrasting response could be attributable to differing rooting patterns (shallower structures under annual plants, and deeper roots under perennials) and faster nutrient uptake in annuals compared to perennials. Our results indicate that precipitation change will have a smaller effect on key process rates in grasslandscontaining a range of perennial and annual species, and that maintaining the presence of key functional groups should be a crucial consideration in future grassland management. PMID:23437300

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

PubMed

Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection. PMID:27732674

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharik, Terry L.; Adair, William; Baker, Fred A.; Battaglia, Michael; Comfort, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Delong, Craig; DeRose, R. Justin; Ducey, Mark J.; Harmon, Mark; Levy, Louise; Logan, Jesse A.; O'Brien, Joseph; Palik, Brian J.; Roberts, Scott D.; Rogers, Paul C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Spies, Thomas; Taylor, Sarah L.; Woodall, Christopher; Youngblood, Andrew

2010-01-01

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

Response of ecosystem services to land use change in Xiamen Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.

2009-12-01

: Land use change was a major factor affecting ecosystem services. Taken Xiamen Island as an example, by integrating remote sensing data to examine land use patterns from 1950 to 2007, the regional ecosystem services of Xiamen Island were evaluated based on two revised methods aiming to identify the stress effects and mechanisms of land use change on ecosystem services. The results showed that during 1950~2007, in general, Xiamen Island’s land use intensity had been annually rising. The trends of Xiamen Island’s ecosystem services value acquired by two methods were both consistent with decreasing along with the growth of land use intensity. Before 1987, the ecosystem service value of Xiamen Island had increased by 1.07 million yuan, due to the expanding of 12.87 km2 water and wetland. After the establishment of Xiamen special economic zone in 1984, the rapid urbanization has resulted a sharp decline in ecosystem service value, the average annual loss reached by 619,773 yuan after 1987. As the utilization of land reaching saturation and the launching of ecological projects, such as the Xiamen Eastern Sea Comprehensive Improvement Project, it could be predicted that the decreasing trend of ecosystem services value was going to be slowed down in the near future. The first revised method referencing four eco-system services solved the problem of overestimated value caused by the second revised method based on provisioning service alone. By applying the ESV total correction method, the problem of over counting service value by correction made from a single aspect could be solved.Equivalent value per unit area of ecosystem services in China 2007 and revised value by second method Note: The modified coefficient of crop, orchard & forest, wetland and inland water provisioning ESV revised by the second method is 2.858, 2.405, 1.523, 1.843 respectively; for regulating, ultural and supporting ESV, the coefficient is 2.339, 15.339, 2.339 respectively.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

2016-09-06

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

2016-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

Allometric Convergence in Savanna Trees and Implications for the Use of Plant Scaling Models in Variable Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Hanan, Niall P.

2013-01-01

Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of ‘universal’ scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and ‘global’ (i.e. interspecific) scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity) in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass) the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and those predicted by ideal models such as MST. PMID:23484003

Impacts of 120 years of fertilizer addition on a temperate grassland ecosystem

PubMed Central

Kidd, Jonathan; Manning, Peter; Simkin, Janet; Peacock, Simon; Stockdale, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

The widespread application of fertilizers has greatly influenced many processes and properties of agroecosystems, and agricultural fertilization is expected to increase even further in the future. To date, most research on fertilizer impacts has used short-term studies, which may be unrepresentative of long-term responses, thus hindering our capacity to predict long-term impacts. Here, we examined the effects of long-term fertilizer addition on key ecosystem properties in a long-term grassland experiment (Palace Leas Hay Meadow) in which farmyard manure (FYM) and inorganic fertilizer treatments have been applied consistently for 120 years in order to characterize the experimental site more fully and compare ecosystem responses with those observed at other long-term and short-term experiments. FYM inputs increased soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, hay yield, nutrient availability and acted as a buffer against soil acidification (>pH 5). In contrast, N-containing inorganic fertilizers strongly acidified the soil (

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Bryce A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Pendleton, Rosemary L.; Pendleton, Burton K.; Germino, Matthew J.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Meyer, Susan E.

2014-01-01

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species–climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep clines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub.

PubMed

Richardson, Bryce A; Kitchen, Stanley G; Pendleton, Rosemary L; Pendleton, Burton K; Germino, Matthew J; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Meyer, Susan E

2014-03-01

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species-climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep dines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.

Using annually-resolved bivalve records and biogeochemical models to understand and predict climate impacts in coastal oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Sarah

2017-04-01

It is more important than ever to study the oceans and especially the shelf seas, which are disproportionately productive, sustaining over 90% of global fisheries . The economic and societal significance of these shallow oceans, as the interface through which society interacts with the marine environment, makes them highly relevant to the decisions of policy-makers and stakeholders. These decision-makers rely upon empirical data informed by consistent and extensive monitoring and assessment from experts in the field, yet long-term, spatially-extensive datasets of the marine environment do not exist or are of poor quality. Modelling the shelf seas with biogeochemical models can provide valuable data, allowing scientists to look at both past and future scenarios to estimate ecosystem response to change. In particular, the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model or ERSEM combines not only the complex hydrographical aspects of the North West European shelf, but also vast numbers of biological and chemical parameters. Though huge efforts across the modelling community are invested into developing and ultimately increasing the reliability of models such as the ERSEM, this is typically achieved by looking at relationships with aforementioned observed datasets, restricting model accuracy and our understanding of ecosystem processes. It is for this reason that proxy data of the marine environment is so valuable. Of all marine proxies available, sclerochronology, the study of the growth bands on long-lived marine molluscs, is the only proven to provide novel, high resolution, multi-centennial, annually-resolved, absolutely-dated archives of past ocean environment, analogous to dendrochronology. For the first time, this PhD project will combine the proxy data of sclerochronology with model hindcast data from the ERSEM with the aim to better understand the North West European shelf sea environment and potentially improve predictions of future climate change in this region and beyond.

Biodiversity in marine invertebrate responses to acute warming revealed by a comparative multi-omics approach.

PubMed

Clark, Melody S; Sommer, Ulf; Sihra, Jaspreet K; Thorne, Michael A S; Morley, Simon A; King, Michelle; Viant, Mark R; Peck, Lloyd S

2017-01-01

Understanding species' responses to environmental change underpins our abilities to make predictions on future biodiversity under any range of scenarios. In spite of the huge biodiversity in most ecosystems, a model species approach is often taken in environmental studies. To date, we still do not know how many species we need to study to input into models and inform on ecosystem-level responses to change. In this study, we tested current paradigms on factors setting thermal limits by investigating the acute warming response of six Antarctic marine invertebrates: a crustacean Paraceradocus miersi, a brachiopod Liothyrella uva, two bivalve molluscs, Laternula elliptica, Aequiyoldia eightsii, a gastropod mollusc Marseniopsis mollis and an echinoderm Cucumaria georgiana. Each species was warmed at the rate of 1 °C h -1 and taken to the same physiological end point (just prior to heat coma). Their molecular responses were evaluated using complementary metabolomics and transcriptomics approaches with the aim of discovering the underlying mechanisms of their resilience or sensitivity to warming. The responses were species-specific; only two showed accumulation of anaerobic end products and three exhibited the classical heat shock response with expression of HSP70 transcripts. These diverse cellular measures did not directly correlate with resilience to heat stress and suggested that each species may have a different critical point of failure. Thus, one unifying molecular mechanism underpinning response to warming could not be assigned, and no overarching paradigm was supported. This biodiversity in response makes future ecosystems predictions extremely challenging, as we clearly need to develop a macrophysiology-type approach to cellular evaluations of the environmental stress response, studying a range of well-rationalized members from different community levels and of different phylogenetic origins rather than extrapolating from one or two arbitrary model species. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

National Ecosystem Assessments in Europe: A Review

PubMed Central

Schröter, Matthias; Albert, Christian; Marques, Alexandra; Tobon, Wolke; Lavorel, Sandra; Maes, Joachim; Brown, Claire; Klotz, Stefan; Bonn, Aletta

2016-01-01

Abstract National ecosystem assessments form an essential knowledge base for safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze eight European (sub-)national ecosystem assessments (Portugal, United Kingdom, Spain, Norway, Flanders, Netherlands, Finland, and Germany) and compare their objectives, political context, methods, and operationalization. We observed remarkable differences in breadth of the assessment, methods employed, variety of services considered, policy mandates, and funding mechanisms. Biodiversity and ecosystem services are mainly assessed independently, with biodiversity conceptualized as underpinning services, as a source of conflict with services, or as a service in itself. Recommendations derived from our analysis for future ecosystem assessments include the needs to improve the common evidence base, to advance the mapping of services, to consider international flows of services, and to connect more strongly to policy questions. Although the context specificity of national ecosystem assessments is acknowledged as important, a greater harmonization across assessments could help to better inform common European policies and future pan-regional assessments. PMID:28533561

Estimating ecosystem service changes as a precursor to modeling

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Future Midwestern Landscapes Study will project changes in ecosystem services (ES) for alternative future policy scenarios in the Midwestern U.S. Doing so for detailed landscapes over large spatial scales will require serial application of economic and ecological models. W...

Forest response to heat waves at the dry timberline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakir, D.; Rotenberg, E.; Tatrinov, F.; Ogee, J.; Maseyk, K.

2012-04-01

Predictions of climate change consistently indicate continuous warming and drying for the entire Mediterranean basin and other regions during the next century. Investigating forest functioning at the current dry and hot "timberline" has therefore implications for predicting future forest distribution. In such investigations we should consider the forest adjustments to extreme conditions both at the long-term average climate basis, as at the time-scale of episodic extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts. Investigating both aspects in a 45-yr old semi-arid pine forest at the dry timberline (<300 mm annual rainfall) we observe adjustments that improve carbon-, nitrogen- and water- use efficiencies. An important aspect in the ecosystem sustainability is its ability to rapidly recover from extreme conditions, both at the short-term and the seasonal scale. A remarkable example is provided by the episodes (usually 2-4 days) of Easterly dry and hot air that are common in spring (so-called "Hamsin" events). During these events air temperature increases and relative humidity decreases within hours by 10˚C and 40%, respectively. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and photosynthesis (GPP) sharply decline, predominantly in response to the drastic increase in vapor pressure deficit (up to 6kPa), but then show full recovery to the pre-stress values within 24 h past the event. Similarly, following 5-6 months of seasonal drought, the forest resumes high photosynthetic activity within ~5 days following the first rain episode of about 10 mm in the fall. We show that these transient responses are useful in partitioning between the ecosystem responses to short-term atmosphere-driven stress and longer-term soil moisture stress. An ecosystem model (MuSICA) was used to test our understandings of underlying processes, and our ability to account for such differential responses.

Unraveling the Plant-Soil Interactome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipton, M. S.; Hixson, K.; Ahkami, A. H.; HaHandkumbura, P. P.; Hess, N. J.; Fang, Y.; Fortin, D.; Stanfill, B.; Yabusaki, S.; Engbrecht, K. M.; Baker, E.; Renslow, R.; Jansson, C.

2017-12-01

Plant photosynthesis is the primary conduit of carbon fixation from the atmosphere to the terrestrial ecosystem. While more is known about plant physiology and biochemistry, the interplay between genetic and environmental factors that govern partitioning of carbon to above- and below ground plant biomass, to microbes, to the soil, and respired to the atmosphere is not well understood holistically. To address this knowledge gap there is a need to define, study, comprehend, and model the plant ecosystem as an integrated system of integrated biotic and abiotic processes and feedbacks. Local rhizosphere conditions are an important control on plant performance but are in turn affected by plant uptake and rhizodeposition processes. C3 and C4 plants have different CO2 fixation strategies and likely have differential metabolic profiles resulting in different carbon sources exuding to the rhizosphere. In this presentation, we report on an integrated capability to better understand plant-soil interactions, including modeling tools that address the spatiotemporal hydrobiogeochemistry in the rhizosphere. Comparing Brachypodium distachyon, (Brachypodium) as our C3 representative and Setaria viridis (Setaria) as our C4 representative, we designed, highly controlled single-plant experimental ecosystems based these model grasses to enable quantitative prediction of ecosystem traits and responses as a function of plant genotype and environmental variables. A metabolomics survey of 30 Brachypodium genotypes grown under control and drought conditions revealed specific metabolites that correlated with biomass production and drought tolerance. A comparison of Brachypodium and Setaria grown with control and a future predicted elevated CO2 level revealed changes in biomass accumulation and metabolite profiles between the C3 and C4 species in both leaves and roots. Finally, we are building an mechanistic modeling capability that will contribute to a better basis for modeling plant water and nutrient cycling in larger scale models.

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

Productivity responses of desert vegetation to precipitation patterns across a rainfall gradient.

PubMed

Li, Fang; Zhao, Wenzhi; Liu, Hu

2015-03-01

The influences of previous-year precipitation and episodic rainfall events on dryland plants and communities are poorly quantified in the temperate desert region of Northwest China. To evaluate the thresholds and lags in the response of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to variability in rainfall pulses and seasonal precipitation along the precipitation-productivity gradient in three desert ecosystems with different precipitation regimes, we collected precipitation data from 2000 to 2012 in Shandan (SD), Linze (LZ) and Jiuquan (JQ) in northwestern China. Further, we extracted the corresponding MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a proxy for ANPP) datasets at 250 m spatial resolution. We then evaluated different desert ecosystems responses using statistical analysis, and a threshold-delay model (TDM). TDM is an integrative framework for analysis of plant growth, precipitation thresholds, and plant functional type strategies that capture the nonlinear nature of plant responses to rainfall pulses. Our results showed that: (1) the growing season NDVIINT (INT stands for time-integrated) was largely correlated with the warm season (spring/summer) at our mildly-arid desert ecosystem (SD). The arid ecosystem (LZ) exhibited a different response, and the growing season NDVIINT depended highly on the previous year's fall/winter precipitation and ANPP. At the extremely arid site (JQ), the variability of growing season NDVIINT was equally correlated with the cool- and warm-season precipitation; (2) some parameters of threshold-delay differed among the three sites: while the response of NDVI to rainfall pulses began at about 5 mm for all the sites, the maximum thresholds in SD, LZ, and JQ were about 55, 35 and 30 mm respectively, increasing with an increase in mean annual precipitation. By and large, more previous year's fall/winter precipitation, and large rainfall events, significantly enhanced the growth of desert vegetation, and desert ecosystems should be much more adaptive under likely future scenarios of increasing fall/winter precipitation and large rainfall events. These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how desert ecosystems will respond to future fluctuations in precipitation.

Ecosystem response to climatic variables - air temperature and precipitation: How can these variables alter plant productions in C4-grass dominant ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, C. G.; Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding net primary production (NPP) response to the key climatic variables, temperature and precipitation, is essential since the response could be represented by one of future consequences from ecosystem responses. Under future climatic warming, fluctuating precipitation is expected. In addition, NPP solely could not explain whole ecosystem response; therefore, not only NPP, but also above- and below-ground NPP (ANPP and BNPP, respectively) need to be examined. This examination needs to include how the plant productions response along temperature and precipitation gradients. Several studies have examined the response of NPP against each of single climatic variable, but understanding the response of ANPP and BNPP to the multiple variables is notably poor. In this study, we used the plant productions data (NPP, ANPP, and BNPP) with climatic variables, i.e., air temperature and precipitation, from 1999 to 2015 under warming and clipping treatments (mimicking hay-harvesting) in C4-grass dominant ecosystem located in central Oklahoma, United States. Firstly, we examined the nonlinear relationships with the climatic variables for NPP, ANPP and BNPP; and then predicted possible responses in the temperature - precipitation space by using a linear mixed effect model. Nonlinearities of NPP, ANPP and BNPP to the climatic variables have been found to show unimodal curves, and nonlinear models have better goodness of fit as shown lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) than linear models. Optimum condition for NPP is represented at high temperature and precipitation level whereas BNPP is maximized at moderate precipitation levels while ANPP has same range of NPP's optimum condition. Clipping significantly reduced ANPP while there was no clipping effect on NPP and BNPP. Furthermore, inclining NPP and ANPP have shown in a range from moderate to high precipitation level with increasing temperature while inclining pattern for BNPP was observed in moderate precipitation level. Overall, the C4-grass dominant ecosystem has a potential for considerable increases in NPP in hotter and wetter conditions as shown a range from moderate to high temperature and precipitation levels; ANPP has peaked at the high temperature and precipitation level, but maximum BNPP needs moderate precipitation level and high temperature.

21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Zelalem A.; Riley, William J.; Grant, Robert F.

2018-05-01

Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m‑2 that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m‑2), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m‑2) and autumn (22 g C m‑2) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m‑2) and autumn (47 g C m‑2)) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m‑2) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m‑2). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperatures (~0.6 °C for every 1 °C increase in air temperature over the 21st century). This slower soil versus air warming, and thus greater increases in CO2 fixation versus soil respiration rates, also contributed to the tundra remaining a carbon sink through 2100. However, these higher gains versus losses of carbon may be a transient response and not sustainable under further soil warming beyond 2100. Our modeling analysis allows us to extend beyond results from short-term warming experiments, which cannot characterize effects associated with decadal-scale changes in plant communities.

Evaluation of simulated biospheric carbon dioxide fluxes and atmospheric concentrations using global in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.

Environmental Drivers of Benthic Flux Variation and Ecosystem Functioning in Salish Sea and Northeast Pacific Sediments.

PubMed

Belley, Rénald; Snelgrove, Paul V R; Archambault, Philippe; Juniper, S Kim

2016-01-01

The upwelling of deep waters from the oxygen minimum zone in the Northeast Pacific from the continental slope to the shelf and into the Salish Sea during spring and summer offers a unique opportunity to study ecosystem functioning in the form of benthic fluxes along natural gradients. Using the ROV ROPOS we collected sediment cores from 10 sites in May and July 2011, and September 2013 to perform shipboard incubations and flux measurements. Specifically, we measured benthic fluxes of oxygen and nutrients to evaluate potential environmental drivers of benthic flux variation and ecosystem functioning along natural gradients of temperature and bottom water dissolved oxygen concentrations. The range of temperature and dissolved oxygen encountered across our study sites allowed us to apply a suite of multivariate analyses rarely used in flux studies to identify bottom water temperature as the primary environmental driver of benthic flux variation and organic matter remineralization. Redundancy analysis revealed that bottom water characteristics (temperature and dissolved oxygen), quality of organic matter (chl a:phaeo and C:N ratios) and sediment characteristics (mean grain size and porosity) explained 51.5% of benthic flux variation. Multivariate analyses identified significant spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes, demonstrating key differences between the Northeast Pacific and Salish Sea. Moreover, Northeast Pacific slope fluxes were generally lower than shelf fluxes. Spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes in the Salish Sea were driven primarily by differences in temperature and quality of organic matter on the seafloor following phytoplankton blooms. These results demonstrate the utility of multivariate approaches in differentiating among potential drivers of seafloor ecosystem functioning, and indicate that current and future predictive models of organic matter remineralization and ecosystem functioning of soft-muddy shelf and slope seafloor habitats should consider bottom water temperature variation. Bottom temperature has important implications for estimates of seasonal and spatial benthic flux variation, benthic-pelagic coupling, and impacts of predicted ocean warming at high latitudes.

B33C-0612: Evaluation of Simulated Biospheric Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Atmospheric Concentrations Using Global in Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.

The rise of novelty in ecosystems.

PubMed

Radeloff, Volker C; Williams, John W; Bateman, Brooke L; Burke, Kevin D; Carter, Sarah K; Childress, Evan S; Cromwell, Kara J; Gratton, Claudio; Hasley, Andrew O; Kraemer, Benjamin M; Latzka, Alexander W; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Meine, Curt D; Munoz, Samuel E; Neeson, Thomas M; Pidgeon, Anna M; Rissman, Adena R; Rivera, Ricardo J; Szymanski, Laura M; Usinowicz, Jacob

2015-12-01

Rapid and ongoing change creates novelty in ecosystems everywhere, both when comparing contemporary systems to their historical baselines, and predicted future systems to the present. However, the level of novelty varies greatly among places. Here we propose a formal and quantifiable definition of abiotic and biotic novelty in ecosystems, map abiotic novelty globally, and discuss the implications of novelty for the science of ecology and for biodiversity conservation. We define novelty as the degree of dissimilarity of a system, measured in one or more dimensions relative to a reference baseline, usually defined as either the present or a time window in the past. In this conceptualization, novelty varies in degree, it is multidimensional, can be measured, and requires a temporal and spatial reference. This definition moves beyond prior categorical definitions of novel ecosystems, and does not include human agency, self-perpetuation, or irreversibility as criteria. Our global assessment of novelty was based on abiotic factors (temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) plus human population, and shows that there are already large areas with high novelty today relative to the early 20th century, and that there will even be more such areas by 2050. Interestingly, the places that are most novel are often not the places where absolute changes are largest; highlighting that novelty is inherently different from change. For the ecological sciences, highly novel ecosystems present new opportunities to test ecological theories, but also challenge the predictive ability of ecological models and their validation. For biodiversity conservation, increasing novelty presents some opportunities, but largely challenges. Conservation action is necessary along the entire continuum of novelty, by redoubling efforts to protect areas where novelty is low, identifying conservation opportunities where novelty is high, developing flexible yet strong regulations and policies, and establishing long-term experiments to test management approaches. Meeting the challenge of novelty will require advances in the science of ecology, and new and creative. conservation approaches.

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Comprehensive ecosystem model-experiment synthesis using multiple datasets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: model performance and compensating biases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Anthony P; Hanson, Paul J; DeKauwe, Martin G

2014-01-01

Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a remarkable wealth of data to test the sensitivities of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs). In this study, a broad set of 11 TEMs were compared to 22 years of data from two contrasting FACE experiments in temperate forests of the south eastern US the evergreen Duke Forest and the deciduous Oak Ridge forest. We evaluated the models' ability to reproduce observed net primary productivity (NPP), transpiration and Leaf Area index (LAI) in ambient CO2 treatments. Encouragingly, many models simulated annual NPP and transpiration within observed uncertainty. Daily transpiration model errors were often relatedmore » to errors in leaf area phenology and peak LAI. Our analysis demonstrates that the simulation of LAI often drives the simulation of transpiration and hence there is a need to adopt the most appropriate of hypothesis driven methods to simulate and predict LAI. Of the three competing hypotheses determining peak LAI (1) optimisation to maximise carbon export, (2) increasing SLA with canopy depth and (3) the pipe model the pipe model produced LAI closest to the observations. Modelled phenology was either prescribed or based on broader empirical calibrations to climate. In some cases, simulation accuracy was achieved through compensating biases in component variables. For example, NPP accuracy was sometimes achieved with counter-balancing biases in nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen uptake. Combined analysis of parallel measurements aides the identification of offsetting biases; without which over-confidence in model abilities to predict ecosystem function may emerge, potentially leading to erroneous predictions of change under future climates.« less

Terrestrial biogeochemical cycles: global interactions with the atmosphere and hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, David S.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.; Parton, William J.

1991-08-01

Ecosystem scientists have developed a body of theory to predict the behaviour of biogeochemical cycles when exchanges with other ecosystems are small or prescribed. Recent environmental changes make it clear that linkages between ecosystems via atmospheric and hydrological transport have large effects on ecosystem dynamics when considered over time periods of a decade to a century, time scales relevant to contemporary humankind. Our ability to predict behaviour of ecosystems coupled by transport is limited by our ability (1) to extrapolate biotic function to large spatial scales and (2) to measure and model transport. We review developments in ecosystem theory, remote sensing, and geographical information systems (GIS) that support new efforts in spatial modeling. A paradigm has emerged to predict behaviour of ecosystems based on understanding responses to multiple resources (e.g., water, nutrients, light). Several ecosystem models couple primary production to decomposition and nutrient availability using the above paradigm. These models require a fairly small set of environmental variables to simulate spatial and temporal variation in rates of biogeochemical cycling. Simultaneously, techniques for inferring ecosystem behaviour from remotely measured canopy light interception are improving our ability to infer plant activity from satellite observations. Efforts have begun to couple models of transport in air and water to models of ecosystem function. Preliminary work indicates that coupling of transport and ecosystem processes alters the behaviour of earth system components (hydrology, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere) from that of an uncoupled mode.

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers intermediate results from the FUTURELAKES project, which aims at generating the first nation-wide data set on future glacial lakes in Austria.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Eigenbrod, F; Bell, V A; Davies, H N; Heinemeyer, A; Armsworth, P R; Gaston, K J

2011-11-07

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

2011-01-01

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

PubMed Central

Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

2012-01-01

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-01-01

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

PubMed Central

Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

2013-01-01

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comte, Lise; Olden, Julian D.

2017-10-01

Climate change is a mounting threat to biological diversity, compromising ecosystem structure and function, and undermining the delivery of essential services worldwide. As the magnitude and speed of climate change accelerates, greater understanding of the taxonomy and geography of climatic vulnerability is critical to guide effective conservation action. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the degree and variability of climatic risk within entire clades and across vast ecosystem boundaries. Here we integrate physiological estimates of thermal sensitivity for 2,960 ray-finned fishes with future climatic exposure, and demonstrate that global patterns of vulnerability differ substantially between freshwater and marine realms. Our results suggest that climatic vulnerability for freshwater faunas will be predominantly determined by elevated levels of climatic exposure predicted for the Northern Hemisphere, whereas marine faunas in the tropics will be the most at risk, reflecting their higher intrinsic sensitivity. Spatial overlap between areas of high physiological risk and high human impacts, together with evidence of low past rates of evolution in upper thermal tolerance, highlights the urgency of global conservation actions and policy initiatives if harmful climate effects on the world’s fishes are to be mitigated in the future.

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach-A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-06-15

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study-simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detrick, R. S.; Hafner, K.; Davis, J. P.; Wilson, D.; Woodward, R.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

Ecosystem Functions across Trophic Levels Are Linked to Functional and Phylogenetic Diversity

PubMed Central

Thompson, Patrick L.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Gonzalez, Andrew

2015-01-01

In experimental systems, it has been shown that biodiversity indices based on traits or phylogeny can outperform species richness as predictors of plant ecosystem function. However, it is unclear whether this pattern extends to the function of food webs in natural ecosystems. Here we tested whether zooplankton functional and phylogenetic diversity explains the functioning of 23 natural pond communities. We used two measures of ecosystem function: (1) zooplankton community biomass and (2) phytoplankton abundance (Chl a). We tested for diversity-ecosystem function relationships within and across trophic levels. We found a strong correlation between zooplankton diversity and ecosystem function, whereas local environmental conditions were less important. Further, the positive diversity-ecosystem function relationships were more pronounced for measures of functional and phylogenetic diversity than for species richness. Zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass were best predicted by different indices, suggesting that the two functions are dependent upon different aspects of diversity. Zooplankton community biomass was best predicted by zooplankton trait-based functional richness, while phytoplankton abundance was best predicted by zooplankton phylogenetic diversity. Our results suggest that the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem function can extend across trophic levels in natural environments, and that greater insight into variation in ecosystem function can be gained by combining functional and phylogenetic diversity measures. PMID:25693188

Ecosystem functions across trophic levels are linked to functional and phylogenetic diversity.

PubMed

Thompson, Patrick L; Davies, T Jonathan; Gonzalez, Andrew

2015-01-01

In experimental systems, it has been shown that biodiversity indices based on traits or phylogeny can outperform species richness as predictors of plant ecosystem function. However, it is unclear whether this pattern extends to the function of food webs in natural ecosystems. Here we tested whether zooplankton functional and phylogenetic diversity explains the functioning of 23 natural pond communities. We used two measures of ecosystem function: (1) zooplankton community biomass and (2) phytoplankton abundance (Chl a). We tested for diversity-ecosystem function relationships within and across trophic levels. We found a strong correlation between zooplankton diversity and ecosystem function, whereas local environmental conditions were less important. Further, the positive diversity-ecosystem function relationships were more pronounced for measures of functional and phylogenetic diversity than for species richness. Zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass were best predicted by different indices, suggesting that the two functions are dependent upon different aspects of diversity. Zooplankton community biomass was best predicted by zooplankton trait-based functional richness, while phytoplankton abundance was best predicted by zooplankton phylogenetic diversity. Our results suggest that the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem function can extend across trophic levels in natural environments, and that greater insight into variation in ecosystem function can be gained by combining functional and phylogenetic diversity measures.

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System: Oxygen Prediction for the Sustainable Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathukumalli, B.; Long, W.; Zhang, X.; Wood, R.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) is a flexible, end-to-end expert prediction tool for decision makers that will provide customizable, user-specified predictions and projections of the region’s climate, air and water quality, local chemistry, and ecosystems at days to decades. As a part of CBFS, the long-term water quality data were collected and assembled to develop ecological models for the sustainable management of the Chesapeake Bay. Cultural eutrophication depletes oxygen levels in this ecosystem particularly in summer which has several negative implications on the structure and function of ecosystem. In order to understand dynamics and prediction of spatially-explicit oxygen levels in the Bay, an empirical process based ecological model is developed with long-term control variables (water temperature, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). Statistical validation methods were employed to demonstrate usability of predictions for management purposes and the predicted oxygen levels are quite faithful to observations. The predicted oxygen values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the bay (for example, bass fishing). Furthermore, this work can also be used to predict extent of hypoxia/anoxia not only from anthropogenic nutrient pollution, but also from global warming. Some hindcasts and forecasts are discussed along with the ongoing efforts at a mechanistic ecosystem model to provide prognostic oxygen predictions and projections and upper trophic modeling using an energetics approach.

Microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefields are sensitive to century-scale climate and anthropogenic change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, James A.; Anesio, Alexandre M.; Arndt, Sandra

2017-04-01

The recent retreat of glaciers and ice sheets as a result of global warming exposes forefield soils that are rapidly colonised by microbes. These ecosystems are dominant in high-latitude carbon and nutrient cycles as microbial activity drives biogeochemical transformations within these newly exposed soils. Despite this, little is known about the response of these emerging ecosystems and associated biogeochemical cycles to projected changes in environmental factors due to human impacts. Here, we applied the model SHIMMER to quantitatively explore the sensitivity of biogeochemical dynamics in the forefield of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, to future changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings including soil temperature, snow cover, and nutrient and organic substrate deposition. Model results indicated that the rapid warming of the Arctic, as well as an increased deposition of organic carbon and nutrients, may impact primary microbial colonisers in Arctic soils. Warming and increased snow-free conditions resulted in enhanced bacterial production and an accumulation of biomass that was sustained throughout 200 years of soil development. Nitrogen deposition stimulated growth during the first 50 years of soil development following exposure. Increased deposition of organic carbon sustained higher rates of bacterial production and heterotrophic respiration leading to decreases in net ecosystem production and thus net CO2 efflux from soils. Pioneer microbial communities were particularly susceptible to future changes. All future climate simulations encouraged a switch from allochthonously-dominated young soils (<40 years) to microbially-dominated older soils, due to enhanced heterotrophic degradation of organic matter. Critically, this drove remineralisation and increased nutrient availability. Overall, we show that human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels and the enhanced deposition of nitrogen and organic carbon, has the potential to considerably affect the biogeochemical development of recently exposed Arctic soils in the present day and for centuries into the future. These effects must be acknowledged when attempting to make accurate predictions of the future fate of Arctic soils that are exposed over large expanses of presently ice-covered regions.

Consistent nutrient storage and supply mediated by diverse fish communities in coral reef ecosystems.

PubMed

Allgeier, Jacob E; Layman, Craig A; Mumby, Peter J; Rosemond, Amy D

2014-08-01

Corals thrive in low nutrient environments and the conservation of these globally imperiled ecosystems is largely dependent on mitigating the effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. However, to better understand the implications of anthropogenic nutrients requires a heightened understanding of baseline nutrient dynamics within these ecosystems. Here, we provide a novel perspective on coral reef nutrient dynamics by examining the role of fish communities in the supply and storage of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). We quantified fish-mediated nutrient storage and supply for 144 species and modeled these data onto 172 fish communities (71 729 individual fish), in four types of coral reefs, as well as seagrass and mangrove ecosystems, throughout the Northern Antilles. Fish communities supplied and stored large quantities of nutrients, with rates varying among ecosystem types. The size structure and diversity of the fish communities best predicted N and P supply and storage and N : P supply, suggesting that alterations to fish communities (e.g., overfishing) will have important implications for nutrient dynamics in these systems. The stoichiometric ratio (N : P) for storage in fish mass (~8 : 1) and supply (~20 : 1) was notably consistent across the four coral reef types (but not seagrass or mangrove ecosystems). Published nutrient enrichment studies on corals show that deviations from this N : P supply ratio may be associated with poor coral fitness, providing qualitative support for the hypothesis that corals and their symbionts may be adapted to specific ratios of nutrient supply. Consumer nutrient stoichiometry provides a baseline from which to better understand nutrient dynamics in coral reef and other coastal ecosystems, information that is greatly needed if we are to implement more effective measures to ensure the future health of the world's oceans. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Applied ecology: retrospect and prospect].

PubMed

He, Xingyuan; Zeng, Dehui

2004-10-01

Applied ecology is evolved into a principal part of modern ecology that rapidly develops. The major stimulus for the development of applied ecology roots in seeking the solutions for the problems of human populations, resources and environments. Through four decades, the science of applied ecology has been becoming a huge group of disciplines. The future for the applied ecology should concern more with human-influenced and managed ecosystems, and acknowledge humans as the components of ecosystems. Nowadays and in future, the top-priorities in applied ecology should include following fields: sustainable ecosystems and biosphere, ecosystem services and ecological design, ecological assessment of genetically modified organisms, ecology of biological invasions, epidemical ecology, ecological forecasting, ecological process and its control. The authors believe that the comprehensive and active research hotspots coupled some new traits would occur around these fields in foreseeable future.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Matthew J; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E; Thomas, Chris D

2015-07-31

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Matthew J.; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.

PubMed

Yin, Yunhe; Ma, Danyang; Wu, Shaohong

2018-01-11

Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs

PubMed Central

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E.

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar’s major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs. PMID:23736941

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients.

PubMed

Michaletz, Sean T; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Enquist, Brian J

2014-08-07

Variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) with climate is thought to originate from a direct influence of temperature and precipitation on plant metabolism. However, variation in NPP may also result from an indirect influence of climate by means of plant age, stand biomass, growing season length and local adaptation. To identify the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects, we extend metabolic scaling theory to link hypothesized climate influences with NPP, and assess hypothesized relationships using a global compilation of ecosystem woody plant biomass and production data. Notably, age and biomass explained most of the variation in production whereas temperature and precipitation explained almost none, suggesting that climate indirectly (not directly) influences production. Furthermore, our theory shows that variation in NPP is characterized by a common scaling relationship, suggesting that global change models can incorporate the mechanisms governing this relationship to improve predictions of future ecosystem function.

Phytovolatilization of Organic Contaminants.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt; Burken, Joel

2016-07-05

Plants can interact with a variety of organic compounds, and thereby affect the fate and transport of many environmental contaminants. Volatile organic compounds may be volatilized from stems or leaves (direct phytovolatilization) or from soil due to plant root activities (indirect phytovolatilization). Fluxes of contaminants volatilizing from plants are important across scales ranging from local contaminant spills to global fluxes of methane emanating from ecosystems biochemically reducing organic carbon. In this article past studies are reviewed to clearly differentiate between direct- and indirect-phytovolatilization and we discuss the plant physiology driving phytovolatilization in different ecosystems. Current measurement techniques are also described, including common difficulties in experimental design. We also discuss reports of phytovolatilization in the literature, finding that compounds with low octanol-air partitioning coefficients are more likely to be phytovolatilized (log KOA < 5). Reports of direct phytovolatilization at field sites compare favorably to model predictions. Finally, future research needs are presented that could better quantify phytovolatilization fluxes at field scale.

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2007-01-01

The fundamental goals of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Remote Sens-ing (LRS) Program are to provide the Federal Government and the public with a primary source of remotely sensed data and applications and to be a leader in defining the future of land remote sensing, nationally and internationally. Remotely sensed data provide information that enhance the understand-ing of ecosystems and the capabilities for predicting ecosystem change. The data promote an understanding of the role of the environment and wildlife in human health issues, the requirements for disaster response, the effects of climate variability, and the availability of energy and mineral resources. Also, as land satellite systems acquire global coverage, the program coordinates a network of international receiving stations and users of the data. It is the responsibility of the program to assure that data from land imaging satellites, airborne photography, radar, and other technologies are available to the national and global science communities.

Ecological study of the effects of power plants on benthic macroplant microcosms in subtropical and tropical estuaries. Annual progress report, 1977-1978

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thorhaug, A.; Schroeder, P.

1978-01-01

The major efforts have been to examine the effects of energy-related problems on nearshore environments in the subtropics and tropics of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions of the United States and the Caribbean. Two fossil fuel and two nuclear plants were examined as the their effects on a nearshore seagrass community at Turkey Point in south Biscayne Bay, Dade County, Florida. The effects of heat toxicity, trace (heavy) metals and high salinities, the community processes and dynamics of nearshore subtropical and tropical seagrass ecosystems, and primary productivity and physiology of the dominant food chain organisms in these ecosystemsmore » have been studied in detail in both field and laboratory studies. A model for future prediction of pollutants emanating from energy-related resources and their effect on seagrass ecosystems has been included.« less

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. This can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide an informative starting point for data assimilation.

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Vibhu; Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-09-21

By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user's future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users' search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model's utility. We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers.

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-01-01

Background By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. Objective The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user’s future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. Methods We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users’ search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model’s utility. Results We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Conclusions Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers. PMID:27655225

How Does Climate Change Affect the Bering Sea Ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigler, Michael F.; Harvey, H. Rodger; Ashjian, Carin J.; Lomas, Michael W.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Van Pelt, Thomas I.

2010-11-01

The Bering Sea is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world, sustaining nearly half of U.S. annual commercial fish catches and providing food and cultural value to thousands of coastal and island residents. Fish and crab are abundant in the Bering Sea; whales, seals, and seabirds migrate there every year. In winter, the topography, latitude, atmosphere, and ocean circulation combine to produce a sea ice advance in the Bering Sea unmatched elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, and in spring the retreating ice; longer daylight hours; and nutrient-rich, deep-ocean waters forced up onto the broad continental shelf result in intense marine productivity (Figure 1). This seasonal ice cover is a major driver of Bering Sea ecology, making this ecosystem particularly sensitive to changes in climate. Predicted changes in ice cover in the coming decades have intensified concern about the future of this economically and culturally important region. In response, the North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) and the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) entered into a partnership in 2007 to support the Bering Sea Project, a comprehensive $52 million investigation to understand how climate change is affecting the Bering Sea ecosystem, ranging from lower trophic levels (e.g., plankton) to fish, seabirds, marine mammals, and, ultimately, humans. The project integrates two research programs, the NSF Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST) and the NPRB Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (BSIERP), with substantial in-kind contributions from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

More than Drought: Precipitation Variance, Excessive Wetness, Pathogens and the Future of the Western Edge of the Eastern Deciduous Forest.

PubMed

Hubbart, Jason A; Guyette, Richard; Muzika, Rose-Marie

2016-10-01

For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly divergent climate extremes. However, little is known about how increasing climate variance may affect ecosystem productivity. Forest ecosystems may be particularly susceptible to this problem considering the complex organizational structure of specialized species niche adaptations. Forest decline is often attributable to multiple stressors including prolonged heat, wildfire and insect outbreaks. These disturbances, often categorized as megadisturbances, can push temperate forests beyond sustainability thresholds. Absent from much of the contemporary forest health literature, however, is the discussion of excessive precipitation that may affect other disturbances synergistically or that might represent a principal stressor. Here, specific points of evidence are provided including historic climatology, variance predictions from global change modeling, Midwestern paleo climate data, local climate influences on net ecosystem exchange and productivity, and pathogen influences on oak mortality. Data sources reveal potential trends, deserving further investigation, indicating that the western edge of the Eastern Deciduous forest may be impacted by ongoing increased precipitation, precipitation variance and excessive wetness. Data presented, in conjunction with recent regional forest health concerns, suggest that climate variance including drought and excessive wetness should be equally considered for forest ecosystem resilience against increasingly dynamic climate. This communication serves as an alert to the need for studies on potential impacts of increasing climate variance and excessive wetness in forest ecosystem health and productivity in the Midwest US and similar forest ecosystems globally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A global database and "state of the field" review of research into ecosystem engineering by land animals.

PubMed

Coggan, Nicole V; Hayward, Matthew W; Gibb, Heloise

2018-02-28

Ecosystem engineers have been widely studied for terrestrial systems, but global trends in research encompassing the range of taxa and functions have not previously been synthesised. We reviewed contemporary understanding of engineer fauna in terrestrial habitats and assessed the methods used to document patterns and processes, asking: (a) which species act as ecosystem engineers and with whom do they interact? (b) What are the impacts of ecosystem engineers in terrestrial habitats and how are they distributed? (c) What are the primary methods used to examine engineer effects and how have these developed over time? We considered the strengths, weaknesses and gaps in knowledge related to each of these questions and suggested a conceptual framework to delineate "significant impacts" of engineering interactions for all terrestrial animals. We collected peer-reviewed publications examining ecosystem engineer impacts and created a database of engineer species to assess experimental approaches and any additional covariates that influenced the magnitude of engineer impacts. One hundred and twenty-two species from 28 orders were identified as ecosystem engineers, performing five ecological functions. Burrowing mammals were the most researched group (27%). Half of all studies occurred in dry/arid habitats. Mensurative studies comparing sites with and without engineers (80%) were more common than manipulative studies (20%). These provided a broad framework for predicting engineer impacts upon abundance and species diversity. However, the roles of confounding factors, processes driving these patterns and the consequences of experimentally adjusting variables, such as engineer density, have been neglected. True spatial and temporal replication has also been limited, particularly for emerging studies of engineer reintroductions. Climate change and habitat modification will challenge the roles that engineers play in regulating ecosystems, and these will become important avenues for future research. We recommend future studies include simulation of engineer effects and experimental manipulation of engineer densities to determine the potential for ecological cascades through trophic and engineering pathways due to functional decline. We also recommend improving knowledge of long-term engineering effects and replication of engineer reintroductions across landscapes to better understand how large-scale ecological gradients alter the magnitude of engineering impacts. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

The use of spatial empirical models to estimate soil erosion in arid ecosystems.

PubMed

Abdullah, Meshal; Feagin, Rusty; Musawi, Layla

2017-02-01

The central objective of this project was to utilize geographical information systems and remote sensing to compare soil erosion models, including Modified Pacific South-west Inter Agency Committee (MPSIAC), Erosion Potential Method (EPM), and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and to determine their applicability for arid regions such as Kuwait. The northern portion of Umm Nigga, containing both coastal and desert ecosystems, falls within the boundaries of the de-militarized zone (DMZ) adjacent to Iraq and has been fenced off to restrict public access since 1994. Results showed that the MPSIAC and EPM models were similar in spatial distribution of erosion, though the MPSIAC had a more realistic spatial distribution of erosion and presented finer level details. The RUSLE presented unrealistic results. We then predicted the amount of soil loss between coastal and desert areas and fenced and unfenced sites for each model. In the MPSIAC and EPM models, soil loss was different between fenced and unfenced sites at the desert areas, which was higher at the unfenced due to the low vegetation cover. The overall results implied that vegetation cover played an important role in reducing soil erosion and that fencing is much more important in the desert ecosystems to protect against human activities such as overgrazing. We conclude that the MPSIAC model is best for predicting soil erosion for arid regions such as Kuwait. We also recommend the integration of field-based experiments with lab-based spatial analysis and modeling in future research.

Shifting carbon flow from roots into associated microbial communities in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Drigo, Barbara; Pijl, Agata S; Duyts, Henk; Kielak, Anna M; Gamper, Hannes A; Houtekamer, Marco J; Boschker, Henricus T S; Bodelier, Paul L E; Whiteley, Andrew S; van Veen, Johannes A; Kowalchuk, George A

2010-06-15

Rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are predicted to have major consequences on carbon cycling and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increased photosynthetic activity is expected, especially for C-3 plants, thereby influencing vegetation dynamics; however, little is known about the path of fixed carbon into soil-borne communities and resulting feedbacks on ecosystem function. Here, we examine how arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) act as a major conduit in the transfer of carbon between plants and soil and how elevated atmospheric CO(2) modulates the belowground translocation pathway of plant-fixed carbon. Shifts in active AMF species under elevated atmospheric CO(2) conditions are coupled to changes within active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities. Thus, as opposed to simply increasing the activity of soil-borne microbes through enhanced rhizodeposition, elevated atmospheric CO(2) clearly evokes the emergence of distinct opportunistic plant-associated microbial communities. Analyses involving RNA-based stable isotope probing, neutral/phosphate lipid fatty acids stable isotope probing, community fingerprinting, and real-time PCR allowed us to trace plant-fixed carbon to the affected soil-borne microorganisms. Based on our data, we present a conceptual model in which plant-assimilated carbon is rapidly transferred to AMF, followed by a slower release from AMF to the bacterial and fungal populations well-adapted to the prevailing (myco-)rhizosphere conditions. This model provides a general framework for reappraising carbon-flow paths in soils, facilitating predictions of future interactions between rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and terrestrial ecosystems.

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Hypoxia in the changing marine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Cowie, G.; Naqvi, S. W. A.

2013-03-01

The predicted future of the global marine environment, as a combined result of forcing due to climate change (e.g. warming and acidification) and other anthropogenic perturbation (e.g. eutrophication), presents a challenge to the sustainability of ecosystems from tropics to high latitudes. Among the various associated phenomena of ecosystem deterioration, hypoxia can cause serious problems in coastal areas as well as oxygen minimum zones in the open ocean (Diaz and Rosenberg 2008 Science 321 926-9, Stramma et al 2008 Science 320 655-8). The negative impacts of hypoxia include changes in populations of marine organisms, such as large-scale mortality and behavioral responses, as well as variations of species distributions, biodiversity, physiological stress, and other sub-lethal effects (e.g. growth and reproduction). Social and economic activities that are related to services provided by the marine ecosystems, such as tourism and fisheries, can be negatively affected by the aesthetic outcomes as well as perceived or real impacts on seafood quality (STAP 2011 (Washington, DC: Global Environment Facility) p 88). Moreover, low oxygen concentration in marine waters can have considerable feedbacks to other compartments of the Earth system, like the emission of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and can affect the global biogeochemical cycles of nutrients and trace elements. It is of critical importance to prediction and adaptation strategies that the key processes of hypoxia in marine environments be precisely determined and understood (cf Zhang et al 2010 Biogeosciences 7 1-24).

An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

2015-12-01

Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

Nonrainfall water origins and formation mechanisms

PubMed Central

Kaseke, Kudzai Farai; Wang, Lixin; Seely, Mary K.

2017-01-01

Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of the total land surface on Earth and are defined broadly as zones where precipitation is considerably less than the potential evapotranspiration. Nonrainfall waters (for example, fog and dew) are the least-studied and least-characterized components of the hydrological cycle, although they supply critical amounts of water for dryland ecosystems. The sources of nonrainfall waters are largely unknown for most systems. In addition, most field and modeling studies tend to consider all nonrainfall inputs as a single category because of technical constraints, which hinders prediction of dryland responses to future warming conditions. This study uses multiple stable isotopes (2H, 18O, and 17O) to show that fog and dew have multiple origins and that groundwater in drylands can be recycled via evapotranspiration and redistributed to the upper soil profile as nonrainfall water. Surprisingly, the non–ocean-derived (locally generated) fog accounts for more than half of the total fog events, suggesting a potential shift from advection-dominated fog to radiation-dominated fog in the fog zone of the Namib Desert. This shift will have implications on the flora and fauna distribution in this fog-dependent system. We also demonstrate that fog and dew can be differentiated on the basis of the dominant fractionation (equilibrium and kinetic) processes during their formation using the 17O-18O relationship. Our results are of great significance in an era of global climate change where the importance of nonrainfall water increases because rainfall is predicted to decline in many dryland ecosystems. PMID:28345058

Integrating Nutrient Enrichment and Forest Management Experiments in Sweden to Constrain the Process-Based Land Surface Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resovsky, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Guenet, B.; Peylin, P.; Lansø, A. S.; Vuichard, N.; Messina, P.; Smith, B.; Ryder, J.; Naudts, K.; Chen, Y.; Otto, J.; McGrath, M.; Valade, A.

2017-12-01

Understanding coupling between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in forest ecosystems is key to predicting global change. Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated the positive response of stand-level photosynthesis and net primary production (NPP) to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, while N availability has been shown to exert an important control on the timing and magnitude of such responses. However, several factors complicate efforts to precisely represent ecosystem-level C and N cycling in the current generation of land surface models (LSMs), including sparse in-situ data, uncertainty with regard to key state variables and disregard for the effects of natural and anthropogenic forest management. In this study, we incorporate empirical data from N-fertilization experiments at two long-term manipulation sites in Sweden to improve the representation of C and N interaction in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. Our version of the model represents the union of two existing ORCHIDEE branches: 1) ORCHIDEE-CN, which resolves processes related to terrestrial C and N cycling, and 2) ORCHIDEE-CAN, which integrates a multi-layer canopy structure and includes representation of forest management practices. Using this new model branch (referred to as ORCHIDEE-CN-CAN), we aim to replicate the growth patterns of managed forests both with and without N limitations. Our hope is that the results, in combination with measurements of various ecosystem parameters (such as soil N) will facilitate LSM optimization, inform future model development, and reduce structural uncertainty in global change predictions.

Ecological and resource economics as ecosystem management tools

Treesearch

Stephen Farber; Dennis Bradley

1999-01-01

Economic pressures on ecosystems will only intensify in the future. Increased population levels, settlement patterns, and increased incomes will raise the demands for ecosystem resources and their services. The pressure to transform ecosystem natural assets into marketable commodities, whether by harvesting and mining resources or altering landscapes through...