Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Effect of NGA West-2 Predictive Ground Motion Equations on Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemberie, A. L.

2014-12-01

Individual Predictive Ground Motion Equations (PGMEs) of the NGA West-2 project have been analyzed for possible differences in loss for certain locations in California. Differences between the individual hazard curves are pronounced in the loss results. The differences are more than a factor of 2 for longer return periods between the Gross losses from the individual PGMEs. Similar differences are also found between the Average Annual Losses from the individual PGMEs. This indicates the difficulty in choosing any one of the PGMEs except using the weighted average of them. Comparisons between losses from the 2008 and 2014 models are also reported.

The Upper and Lower Bounds of the Prediction Accuracies of Ensemble Methods for Binary Classification

PubMed Central

Wang, Xueyi; Davidson, Nicholas J.

2011-01-01

Ensemble methods have been widely used to improve prediction accuracy over individual classifiers. In this paper, we achieve a few results about the prediction accuracies of ensemble methods for binary classification that are missed or misinterpreted in previous literature. First we show the upper and lower bounds of the prediction accuracies (i.e. the best and worst possible prediction accuracies) of ensemble methods. Next we show that an ensemble method can achieve > 0.5 prediction accuracy, while individual classifiers have < 0.5 prediction accuracies. Furthermore, for individual classifiers with different prediction accuracies, the average of the individual accuracies determines the upper and lower bounds. We perform two experiments to verify the results and show that it is hard to achieve the upper and lower bounds accuracies by random individual classifiers and better algorithms need to be developed. PMID:21853162

The difference engine: a model of diversity in speeded cognition.

PubMed

Myerson, Joel; Hale, Sandra; Zheng, Yingye; Jenkins, Lisa; Widaman, Keith F

2003-06-01

A theory of diversity in speeded cognition, the difference engine, is proposed, in which information processing is represented as a series of generic computational steps. Some individuals tend to perform all of these computations relatively quickly and other individuals tend to perform them all relatively slowly, reflecting the existence of a general cognitive speed factor, but the time required for response selection and execution is assumed to be independent of cognitive speed. The difference engine correctly predicts the positively accelerated form of the relation between diversity of performance, as measured by the standard deviation for the group, and task difficulty, as indexed by the mean response time (RT) for the group. In addition, the difference engine correctly predicts approximately linear relations between the RTs of any individual and average performance for the group, with the regression lines for fast individuals having slopes less than 1.0 (and positive intercepts) and the regression lines for slow individuals having slopes greater than 1.0 (and negative intercepts). Similar predictions are made for comparisons of slow, average, and fast subgroups, regardless of whether those subgroups are formed on the basis of differences in ability, age, or health status. These predictions are consistent with evidence from studies of healthy young and older adults as well as from studies of depressed and age-matched control groups.

Individual differences in emotion word processing: A diffusion model analysis.

PubMed

Mueller, Christina J; Kuchinke, Lars

2016-06-01

The exploratory study investigated individual differences in implicit processing of emotional words in a lexical decision task. A processing advantage for positive words was observed, and differences between happy and fear-related words in response times were predicted by individual differences in specific variables of emotion processing: Whereas more pronounced goal-directed behavior was related to a specific slowdown in processing of fear-related words, the rate of spontaneous eye blinks (indexing brain dopamine levels) was associated with a processing advantage of happy words. Estimating diffusion model parameters revealed that the drift rate (rate of information accumulation) captures unique variance of processing differences between happy and fear-related words, with highest drift rates observed for happy words. Overall emotion recognition ability predicted individual differences in drift rates between happy and fear-related words. The findings emphasize that a significant amount of variance in emotion processing is explained by individual differences in behavioral data.

Individual Differences in Statistical Learning Predict Children's Comprehension of Syntax

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidd, Evan; Arciuli, Joanne

2016-01-01

Variability in children's language acquisition is likely due to a number of cognitive and social variables. The current study investigated whether individual differences in statistical learning (SL), which has been implicated in language acquisition, independently predicted 6- to 8-year-old's comprehension of syntax. Sixty-eight (N = 68)…

A Multifactorial Approach to Predicting Death Anxiety: Assessing the Role of Religiosity, Susceptibility to Mortality Cues, and Individual Differences.

PubMed

French, Carrie; Greenauer, Nathan; Mello, Catherine

2017-01-01

Death anxiety is not only experienced by individuals receiving end-of-life care, but also by family members, social workers, and other service providers who support these individuals. Thus, identifying predictors of individual differences in experienced death anxiety levels may have both theoretical and clinical ramifications. The present study assessed the relative influence of religiosity, susceptibility to mortality cues, state and trait anxiety, and demographic factors in the experience of death anxiety through an online survey distributed to members of two online communities related to end-of-life care. Results indicated that cognitive and emotional susceptibility to mortality cues, as well as gender, predicted differences in death anxiety. Conversely, religiosity and age did not increase the predictive power of the model. Thus, death anxiety may be a function of emotional, cognitive, and sociocultural factors that interact in complex, but predictable, ways to modulate the response to mortality cues that occur in one's life.

Predicting the size of individual and group differences on speeded cognitive tasks.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Hale, Sandra; Myerson, Joel

2007-06-01

An a priori test of the difference engine model (Myerson, Hale, Zheng, Jenkins, & Widaman, 2003) was conducted using a large, diverse sample of individuals who performed three speeded verbal tasks and three speeded visuospatial tasks. Results demonstrated that, as predicted by the model, the group standard deviation (SD) on any task was proportional to the amount of processing required by that task. Both individual performances as well as those of fast and slow subgroups could be accurately predicted by the model using no free parameters, just an individual or subgroup's mean z-score and the values of theoretical constructs estimated from fits to the group SDs. Taken together, these results are consistent with post hoc analyses reported by Myerson et al. and provide even stronger supporting evidence. In particular, the ability to make quantitative predictions without using any free parameters provides the clearest demonstration to date of the power of an analytic approach on the basis of the difference engine.

Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

PubMed

Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

2013-01-01

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual.

Ecological influences on individual differences in color preference.

PubMed

Schloss, Karen B; Hawthorne-Madell, Daniel; Palmer, Stephen E

2015-11-01

How can the large, systematic differences that exist between individuals' color preferences be explained? The ecological valence theory (Palmer & Schloss, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107:8877-8882, 2010) posits that an individual's preference for each particular color is determined largely by his or her preferences for all correspondingly colored objects. Therefore, individuals should differ in their color preferences to the extent that they have different preferences for the same color-associated objects or that they experience different objects. Supporting this prediction, we found that individuals' color preferences were predicted better by their own preferences for correspondingly colored objects than by other peoples' preferences for the same objects. Moreover, the fit between color preferences and affect toward the colored objects was reliably improved when people's own idiosyncratic color-object associations were included in addition to a standard set of color-object associations. These and related results provide evidence that individual differences in color preferences are reliably influenced by people's personal experiences with colored objects in their environment.

Positive affect, intuition, and feelings of meaning.

PubMed

Hicks, Joshua A; Cicero, David C; Trent, Jason; Burton, Chad M; King, Laura A

2010-06-01

Subjective rationality, or the feeling of meaning, was identified by William James (1893) as a central aspect of the non-sensory fringe of consciousness. Three studies examined the interaction of positive affect (PA) and individual differences in intuitive information processing in predicting feelings of meaning for various stimuli and life events. In Study 1 (N = 352), PA and intuition interacted to predict understanding for ambiguous quotes and abstract artwork. In Study 2 (N = 211), similar interactions were found for feelings of meaning for fans after their football team lost a conference championship game and for individuals not directly affected by Hurricane Katrina in events surrounding the hurricane. In Study 3 (N = 41), induced PA interacted with individual differences in intuition in predicting accuracy for coherence judgments for loosely related linguistic triads. Intuitive individuals in the positive mood condition recognized coherent triads more accurately than did other participants. Results are discussed in terms of the role of individual differences in intuitive information processing in the relationship of PA to cognition. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Individual differences in working memory capacity predict visual attention allocation.

PubMed

Bleckley, M Kathryn; Durso, Francis T; Crutchfield, Jerry M; Engle, Randall W; Khanna, Maya M

2003-12-01

To the extent that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) reflect differences in attention (Baddeley, 1993; Engle, Kane, & Tuholski, 1999), differences in WMC should predict performance on visual attention tasks. Individuals who scored in the upper and lower quartiles on the OSPAN working memory test performed a modification of Egly and Homa's (1984) selective attention task. In this task, the participants identified a central letter and localized a displaced letter flashed somewhere on one of three concentric rings. When the displaced letter occurred closer to fixation than the cue implied, high-WMC, but not low-WMC, individuals showed a cost in the letter localization task. This suggests that low-WMC participants allocated attention as a spotlight, whereas those with high WMC showed flexible allocation.

Dopamine neurons share common response function for reward prediction error

PubMed Central

Eshel, Neir; Tian, Ju; Bukwich, Michael; Uchida, Naoshige

2016-01-01

Dopamine neurons are thought to signal reward prediction error, or the difference between actual and predicted reward. How dopamine neurons jointly encode this information, however, remains unclear. One possibility is that different neurons specialize in different aspects of prediction error; another is that each neuron calculates prediction error in the same way. We recorded from optogenetically-identified dopamine neurons in the lateral ventral tegmental area (VTA) while mice performed classical conditioning tasks. Our tasks allowed us to determine the full prediction error functions of dopamine neurons and compare them to each other. We found striking homogeneity among individual dopamine neurons: their responses to both unexpected and expected rewards followed the same function, just scaled up or down. As a result, we could describe both individual and population responses using just two parameters. Such uniformity ensures robust information coding, allowing each dopamine neuron to contribute fully to the prediction error signal. PMID:26854803

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

An experiment on individual 'parochial altruism' revealing no connection between individual 'altruism' and individual 'parochialism'.

PubMed

Corr, Philip J; Hargreaves Heap, Shaun P; Seger, Charles R; Tsutsui, Kei

2015-01-01

Is parochial altruism an attribute of individual behavior? This is the question we address with an experiment. We examine whether the individual pro-sociality that is revealed in the public goods and trust games when interacting with fellow group members helps predict individual parochialism, as measured by the in-group bias (i.e., the difference in these games in pro-sociality when interacting with own group members as compared with members of another group). We find that it is not. An examination of the Big-5 personality predictors of each behavior reinforces this result: they are different. In short, knowing how pro-social individuals are with respect to fellow group members does not help predict their parochialism.

Preference assessments in the zoo: Keeper and staff predictions of enrichment preferences across species.

PubMed

Mehrkam, Lindsay R; Dorey, Nicole R

2015-01-01

Environmental enrichment is widely used in the management of zoo animals, and is an essential strategy for increasing the behavioral welfare of these populations. It may be difficult, however, to identify potentially effective enrichment strategies that are also cost-effective and readily available. An animal's preference for a potential enrichment item may be a reliable predictor of whether that individual will reliably interact with that item, and subsequently enable staff to evaluate the effects of that enrichment strategy. The aim of the present study was to assess the utility of preference assessments for identifying potential enrichment items across six different species--each representing a different taxonomic group. In addition, we evaluated the agreement between zoo personnel's predictions of animals' enrichment preferences and stimuli selected via a preference assessment. Five out of six species (nine out of 11 individuals) exhibited clear, systematic preferences for specific stimuli. Similarities in enrichment preferences were observed among all individuals of primates, whereas individuals within ungulate and avian species displayed individual differences in enrichment preferences. Overall, zoo personnel, regardless of experience level, were significantly more accurate at predicting least-preferred stimuli than most-preferred stimuli across species, and tended to make the same predictions for all individuals within a species. Preference assessments may therefore be a useful, efficient husbandry strategy for identifying viable enrichment items at both the individual and species levels. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic basis of between-individual and within-individual variance of docility.

PubMed

Martin, J G A; Pirotta, E; Petelle, M B; Blumstein, D T

2017-04-01

Between-individual variation in phenotypes within a population is the basis of evolution. However, evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have mainly focused on estimating between-individual variance in mean trait and neglected variation in within-individual variance, or predictability of a trait. In fact, an important assumption of mixed-effects models used to estimate between-individual variance in mean traits is that within-individual residual variance (predictability) is identical across individuals. Individual heterogeneity in the predictability of behaviours is a potentially important effect but rarely estimated and accounted for. We used 11 389 measures of docility behaviour from 1576 yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) to estimate between-individual variation in both mean docility and its predictability. We then implemented a double hierarchical animal model to decompose the variances of both mean trait and predictability into their environmental and genetic components. We found that individuals differed both in their docility and in their predictability of docility with a negative phenotypic covariance. We also found significant genetic variance for both mean docility and its predictability but no genetic covariance between the two. This analysis is one of the first to estimate the genetic basis of both mean trait and within-individual variance in a wild population. Our results indicate that equal within-individual variance should not be assumed. We demonstrate the evolutionary importance of the variation in the predictability of docility and illustrate potential bias in models ignoring variation in predictability. We conclude that the variability in the predictability of a trait should not be ignored, and present a coherent approach for its quantification. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Brain regions engaged by part- and whole-task performance in a video game: a model-based test of the decomposition hypothesis.

PubMed

Anderson, John R; Bothell, Daniel; Fincham, Jon M; Anderson, Abraham R; Poole, Ben; Qin, Yulin

2011-12-01

Part- and whole-task conditions were created by manipulating the presence of certain components of the Space Fortress video game. A cognitive model was created for two-part games that could be combined into a model that performed the whole game. The model generated predictions both for behavioral patterns and activation patterns in various brain regions. The activation predictions concerned both tonic activation that was constant in these regions during performance of the game and phasic activation that occurred when there was resource competition. The model's predictions were confirmed about how tonic and phasic activation in different regions would vary with condition. These results support the Decomposition Hypothesis that the execution of a complex task can be decomposed into a set of information-processing components and that these components combine unchanged in different task conditions. In addition, individual differences in learning gains were predicted by individual differences in phasic activation in those regions that displayed highest tonic activity. This individual difference pattern suggests that the rate of learning of a complex skill is determined by capacity limits.

Age differences in cognitive performance in later life: relationships to self-reported health and activity life style.

PubMed

Hultsch, D F; Hammer, M; Small, B J

1993-01-01

The predictive relationships among individual differences in self-reported physical health and activity life style and performance on an array of information processing and intellectual ability measures were examined. A sample of 484 men and women aged 55 to 86 years completed a battery of cognitive tasks measuring verbal processing time, working memory, vocabulary, verbal fluency, world knowledge, word recall, and text recall. Hierarchical regression was used to predict performance on these tasks from measures of self-reported physical health, alcohol and tobacco use, and level of participation in everyday activities. The results indicated: (a) individual differences in self-reported health and activity predicted performance on multiple cognitive measures; (b) self-reported health was more predictive of processing resource variables than knowledge-based abilities; (c) interaction effects indicated that participation in cognitively demanding activities was more highly related to performance on some measures for older adults than for middle-aged adults; and (d) age-related differences in performance on multiple measures were attenuated by partialing individual differences in self-reported health and activity.

Food-Predicting Stimuli Differentially Influence Eye Movements and Goal-Directed Behavior in Normal-Weight, Overweight, and Obese Individuals

PubMed Central

Lehner, Rea; Balsters, Joshua H.; Bürgler, Alexandra; Hare, Todd A.; Wenderoth, Nicole

2017-01-01

Obese individuals have been shown to exhibit abnormal sensitivity to rewards and reward-predicting cues as for example food-associated cues frequently used in advertisements. It has also been shown that food-associated cues can increase goal-directed behavior but it is currently unknown, whether this effect differs between normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals. Here, we investigate this question by using a Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) task in normal-weight (N = 20), overweight (N = 17), and obese (N = 17) individuals. Furthermore, we applied eye tracking during Pavlovian conditioning to measure the participants’ conditioned response as a proxy of the incentive salience of the predicted reward. Our results show that the goal-directed behavior of overweight individuals was more strongly influenced by food-predicting cues (i.e., stronger PIT effect) than that of normal-weight and obese individuals (p < 0.001). The weight groups were matched for age, gender, education, and parental education. Eye movements during Pavlovian conditioning also differed between weight categories (p < 0.05) and were used to categorize individuals based on their fixation style into “high eye index” versus “low eye index” as well. Our main finding was that the fixation style exhibited a complex interaction with the weight category. Furthermore, we found that normal-weight individuals of the group “high eye index” had higher body mass index within the healthy range than individuals of the group “low eye index” (p < 0.001), but this relationship was not found within in the overweight or obese groups (p > 0.646). Our findings are largely consistent with the incentive sensitization theory predicting that overweight individuals are more susceptible to food-related cues than normal-weight controls. However, this hypersensitivity might be reduced in obese individuals, possibly due to habitual/compulsive overeating or differences in reward valuation. PMID:29180968

Food-Predicting Stimuli Differentially Influence Eye Movements and Goal-Directed Behavior in Normal-Weight, Overweight, and Obese Individuals.

PubMed

Lehner, Rea; Balsters, Joshua H; Bürgler, Alexandra; Hare, Todd A; Wenderoth, Nicole

2017-01-01

Obese individuals have been shown to exhibit abnormal sensitivity to rewards and reward-predicting cues as for example food-associated cues frequently used in advertisements. It has also been shown that food-associated cues can increase goal-directed behavior but it is currently unknown, whether this effect differs between normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals. Here, we investigate this question by using a Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) task in normal-weight ( N  = 20), overweight ( N  = 17), and obese ( N  = 17) individuals. Furthermore, we applied eye tracking during Pavlovian conditioning to measure the participants' conditioned response as a proxy of the incentive salience of the predicted reward. Our results show that the goal-directed behavior of overweight individuals was more strongly influenced by food-predicting cues (i.e., stronger PIT effect) than that of normal-weight and obese individuals ( p  < 0.001). The weight groups were matched for age, gender, education, and parental education. Eye movements during Pavlovian conditioning also differed between weight categories ( p  < 0.05) and were used to categorize individuals based on their fixation style into "high eye index" versus "low eye index" as well. Our main finding was that the fixation style exhibited a complex interaction with the weight category. Furthermore, we found that normal-weight individuals of the group "high eye index" had higher body mass index within the healthy range than individuals of the group "low eye index" ( p  < 0.001), but this relationship was not found within in the overweight or obese groups ( p  > 0.646). Our findings are largely consistent with the incentive sensitization theory predicting that overweight individuals are more susceptible to food-related cues than normal-weight controls. However, this hypersensitivity might be reduced in obese individuals, possibly due to habitual/compulsive overeating or differences in reward valuation.

Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y; Li, Daiqin

2017-01-17

Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions.

Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance

PubMed Central

Chang, Chia-chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y.; Li, Daiqin

2017-01-01

Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions. PMID:28094288

Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

PubMed

Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

2007-10-01

To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

Predicting Accommodative Response Using Paraxial Schematic Eye Models

PubMed Central

Ramasubramanian, Viswanathan; Glasser, Adrian

2016-01-01

Purpose Prior ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM) studies showed that accommodative optical response (AOR) can be predicted from accommodative biometric changes in a young and a pre-presbyopic population from linear relationships between accommodative optical and biometric changes, with a standard deviation of less than 0.55D. Here, paraxial schematic eyes (SE) were constructed from measured accommodative ocular biometry parameters to see if predictions are improved. Methods Measured ocular biometry (OCT, A-scan and UBM) parameters from 24 young and 24 pre-presbyopic subjects were used to construct paraxial SEs for each individual subject (individual SEs) for three different lens equivalent refractive index methods. Refraction and AOR calculated from the individual SEs were compared with Grand Seiko (GS) autorefractor measured refraction and AOR. Refraction and AOR were also calculated from individual SEs constructed using the average population accommodative change in UBM measured parameters (average SEs). Results Schematic eye calculated and GS measured AOR were linearly related (young subjects: slope = 0.77; r2 = 0.86; pre-presbyopic subjects: slope = 0.64; r2 = 0.55). The mean difference in AOR (GS - individual SEs) for the young subjects was −0.27D and for the pre-presbyopic subjects was 0.33D. For individual SEs, the mean ± SD of the absolute differences in AOR between the GS and SEs was 0.50 ± 0.39D for the young subjects and 0.50 ± 0.37D for the pre-presbyopic subjects. For average SEs, the mean ± SD of the absolute differences in AOR between the GS and the SEs was 0.77 ± 0.88D for the young subjects and 0.51 ± 0.49D for the pre-presbyopic subjects. Conclusions Individual paraxial SEs predict AOR, on average, with a standard deviation of 0.50D in young and pre-presbyopic subject populations. Although this prediction is only marginally better than from individual linear regressions, it does consider all the ocular biometric parameters. PMID:27092928

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

PubMed

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

Individual Differences in the Resistance to Social Change and Acceptance of Inequality Predict System Legitimacy Differently Depending on the Social Structure

PubMed Central

Reyna, Christine

2017-01-01

Abstract We propose that individual differences in the resistance to social change and the acceptance of inequality can have divergent effects on legitimacy depending on the context. This possibility was tested in a sample of 27 European countries (N = 144 367) and across four experiments (total N = 475). Individual differences in the resistance to social change were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy no matter the level of inequality of the society. Conversely, individual differences in the acceptance of inequality were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy in unequal societies, but either a relationship near zero or the opposite relationship was found in more equal societies. These studies highlight the importance of distinguishing between individual differences that make up political ideology, especially when making predictions in diverse settings. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology PMID:28706346

Individual Differences in the Resistance to Social Change and Acceptance of Inequality Predict System Legitimacy Differently Depending on the Social Structure.

PubMed

Brandt, Mark J; Reyna, Christine

2017-01-01

We propose that individual differences in the resistance to social change and the acceptance of inequality can have divergent effects on legitimacy depending on the context. This possibility was tested in a sample of 27 European countries ( N  = 144 367) and across four experiments (total N  = 475). Individual differences in the resistance to social change were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy no matter the level of inequality of the society. Conversely, individual differences in the acceptance of inequality were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy in unequal societies, but either a relationship near zero or the opposite relationship was found in more equal societies. These studies highlight the importance of distinguishing between individual differences that make up political ideology, especially when making predictions in diverse settings. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology.

Developmental Trajectories in Toddlers' Self-Restraint Predict Individual Differences in Executive Functions 14 Years Later: A Behavioral Genetic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Naomi P.; Miyake, Akira; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Hewitt, John K.

2011-01-01

We examined whether self-restraint in early childhood predicted individual differences in 3 executive functions (EFs; inhibiting prepotent responses, updating working memory, and shifting task sets) in late adolescence in a sample of approximately 950 twins. At ages 14, 20, 24, and 36 months, the children were shown an attractive toy and told not…

An experiment on individual ‘parochial altruism’ revealing no connection between individual ‘altruism’ and individual ‘parochialism’

PubMed Central

Corr, Philip J.; Hargreaves Heap, Shaun P.; Seger, Charles R.; Tsutsui, Kei

2015-01-01

Is parochial altruism an attribute of individual behavior? This is the question we address with an experiment. We examine whether the individual pro-sociality that is revealed in the public goods and trust games when interacting with fellow group members helps predict individual parochialism, as measured by the in-group bias (i.e., the difference in these games in pro-sociality when interacting with own group members as compared with members of another group). We find that it is not. An examination of the Big-5 personality predictors of each behavior reinforces this result: they are different. In short, knowing how pro-social individuals are with respect to fellow group members does not help predict their parochialism. PMID:26347703

Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

Salience Network Connectivity Modulates Skin Conductance Responses in Predicting Arousal Experience

PubMed Central

Xia, Chenjie; Touroutoglou, Alexandra; Quigley, Karen S.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Dickerson, Bradford C.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in arousal experience have been linked to differences in resting-state salience network connectivity strength. In this study, we investigated how adding task-related skin conductance responses (SCR), a measure of sympathetic autonomic nervous system activity, can predict additional variance in arousal experience. Thirty-nine young adults rated their subjective experience of arousal to emotionally evocative images while SCRs were measured. They also underwent a separate resting-state fMRI scan. Greater SCR reactivity (an increased number of task-related SCRs) to emotional images and stronger intrinsic salience network connectivity independently predicted more intense experiences of arousal. Salience network connectivity further moderated the effect of SCR reactivity: In individuals with weak salience network connectivity, SCR reactivity more significantly predicted arousal experience, whereas in those with strong salience network connectivity, SCR reactivity played little role in predicting arousal experience. This interaction illustrates the degeneracy in neural mechanisms driving individual differences in arousal experience and highlights the intricate interplay between connectivity in central visceromotor neural circuitry and peripherally expressed autonomic responses in shaping arousal experience. PMID:27991182

Individual differences in fluid intelligence predicts inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults: a preliminary study.

PubMed

O'Shea, Deirdre M; Fieo, Robert A

2015-07-01

Previous research has shown that aging increases susceptibility to inattentional blindness (Graham and Burke, Psychol Aging 26:162, 2011) as well as individual differences in cognitive ability related to working memory and executive functions in separate studies. Therefore, the present study was conducted in an attempt to bridge a gap that involved investigating 'age-sensitive' cognitive abilities that may predict inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults. We investigated whether individual differences in general fluid intelligence and speed of processing would predict inattentional blindness in our sample of older adults. Thirty-six healthy older adults took part in the study. Using the inattentional blindness paradigm developed by Most et al. (Psychol Rev 112:217, 2005), we investigated whether rates of inattentional blindness could be predicted by participant's performance on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices and a choice-reaction time task. A Mann-Whitney U test revealed that a higher score on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices was significantly associated with lower incidences of inattentional blindness. However, a t test revealed that choice-reaction times were not significantly associated with inattentional blindness. Preliminary results from the present study suggest that individual differences in general fluid intelligence are predictive of inattentional blindness in older adults but not speed of processing. Moreover, our findings are consistent with previous studies that have suggested executive attention control may be the source of these individual differences. These findings also highlight the association between attention and general fluid intelligence and how it may impact environmental awareness. Future research would benefit from repeating these analyses in a larger sample and also including a younger comparison group.

Individualized Prediction of Reading Comprehension Ability Using Gray Matter Volume.

PubMed

Cui, Zaixu; Su, Mengmeng; Li, Liangjie; Shu, Hua; Gong, Gaolang

2018-05-01

Reading comprehension is a crucial reading skill for learning and putatively contains 2 key components: reading decoding and linguistic comprehension. Current understanding of the neural mechanism underlying these reading comprehension components is lacking, and whether and how neuroanatomical features can be used to predict these 2 skills remain largely unexplored. In the present study, we analyzed a large sample from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) dataset and successfully built multivariate predictive models for these 2 skills using whole-brain gray matter volume features. The results showed that these models effectively captured individual differences in these 2 skills and were able to significantly predict these components of reading comprehension for unseen individuals. The strict cross-validation using the HCP cohort and another independent cohort of children demonstrated the model generalizability. The identified gray matter regions contributing to the skill prediction consisted of a wide range of regions covering the putative reading, cerebellum, and subcortical systems. Interestingly, there were gender differences in the predictive models, with the female-specific model overestimating the males' abilities. Moreover, the identified contributing gray matter regions for the female-specific and male-specific models exhibited considerable differences, supporting a gender-dependent neuroanatomical substrate for reading comprehension.

Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

PubMed

Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

2017-01-01

Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

Individual differences in the attribution of incentive salience to reward-related cues: Implications for addiction.

PubMed

Flagel, Shelly B; Akil, Huda; Robinson, Terry E

2009-01-01

Drugs of abuse acquire different degrees of control over thoughts and actions based not only on the effects of drugs themselves, but also on predispositions of the individual. Those individuals who become addicted are unable to shift their thoughts and actions away from drugs and drug-associated stimuli. Thus in addicts, exposure to places or things (cues) that has been previously associated with drug-taking often instigates renewed drug-taking. We and others have postulated that drug-associated cues acquire the ability to maintain and instigate drug-taking behavior in part because they acquire incentive motivational properties through Pavlovian (stimulus-stimulus) learning. In the case of compulsive behavioral disorders, including addiction, such cues may be attributed with pathological incentive value ("incentive salience"). For this reason, we have recently begun to explore individual differences in the tendency to attribute incentive salience to cues that predict rewards. When discrete cues are associated with the non-contingent delivery of food or drug rewards some animals come to quickly approach and engage the cue even if it is located at a distance from where the reward will be delivered. In these animals the reward-predictive cue itself becomes attractive, eliciting approach towards it, presumably because it is attributed with incentive salience. Animals that develop this type of conditional response are called "sign-trackers". Other animals, "goal-trackers", do not approach the reward-predictive cue, but upon cue presentation they immediately go to the location where food will be delivered (the "goal"). For goal-trackers the reward-predictive cue is not attractive, presumably because it is not attributed with incentive salience. We review here preliminary data suggesting that these individual differences in the tendency to attribute incentive salience to cues predictive of reward may confer vulnerability or resistance to compulsive behavioral disorders, including addiction. It will be important, therefore, to study how environmental, neurobiological and genetic interactions determine the extent to which individuals attribute incentive value to reward-predictive stimuli.

Individual differences in children's innovative problem-solving are not predicted by divergent thinking or executive functions

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Recent studies of children's tool innovation have revealed that there is variation in children's success in middle-childhood. In two individual differences studies, we sought to identify personal characteristics that might predict success on an innovation task. In Study 1, we found that although measures of divergent thinking were related to each other they did not predict innovation success. In Study 2, we measured executive functioning including: inhibition, working memory, attentional flexibility and ill-structured problem-solving. None of these measures predicted innovation, but, innovation was predicted by children's performance on a receptive vocabulary scale that may function as a proxy for general intelligence. We did not find evidence that children's innovation was predicted by specific personal characteristics. PMID:26926280

Individual Differences in False Belief Understanding Are Stable from 3 to 6 Years of Age and Predict Children's Mental State Talk with School Friends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Claire; Ensor, Rosie; Marks, Alex

2011-01-01

Despite a wealth of studies in the field, longitudinal assessments of both the stability and predictive utility of individual differences in preschoolers' understanding of the mind remain scarce. To address these gaps, we applied latent variable analyses to (a) experimental data gathered from a socially diverse sample (N = 101, 60 boys and 41…

A network of amygdala connections predict individual differences in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Greening, Steven G; Mitchell, Derek G V

2015-12-01

In this study we demonstrate that the pattern of an amygdala-centric network contributes to individual differences in trait anxiety. Individual differences in trait anxiety were predicted using maximum likelihood estimates of amygdala structural connectivity to multiple brain targets derived from diffusion-tensor imaging (DTI) and probabilistic tractography on 72 participants. The prediction was performed using a stratified sixfold cross validation procedure using a regularized least square regression model. The analysis revealed a reliable network of regions predicting individual differences in trait anxiety. Higher trait anxiety was associated with stronger connections between the amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, an area implicated in the generation of emotional reactions, and inferior temporal gyrus and paracentral lobule, areas associated with perceptual and sensory processing. In contrast, higher trait anxiety was associated with weaker connections between amygdala and regions implicated in extinction learning such as medial orbitofrontal cortex, and memory encoding and environmental context recognition, including posterior cingulate cortex and parahippocampal gyrus. Thus, trait anxiety is not only associated with reduced amygdala connectivity with prefrontal areas associated with emotion modulation, but also enhanced connectivity with sensory areas. This work provides novel anatomical insight into potential mechanisms behind information processing biases observed in disorders of emotion. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Individual Differences: Factors Affecting Employee Utilization of Flexible Work Arrangements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Alysa D.; Marler, Janet H.; Gueutal, Hal G.

2008-01-01

This study investigated individual and organizational factors that predict an individual's choice to use flexible work arrangements (FWAs). Survey data was collected from 144 employees in two different organizations. The results revealed several significant predictors of FWAs: tenure, hours worked per week, supervisory responsibilities,…

Procedural Error and Task Interruption

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-30

red for research on errors and individual differences . Results indicate predictive validity for fluid intelligence and specifi c forms of work...TERMS procedural error, task interruption, individual differences , fluid intelligence, sleep deprivation 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17...and individual differences . It generates rich data on several kinds of errors, including procedural errors in which steps are skipped or repeated

A combined experimental and individual-differences investigation into mind wandering during a video lecture.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Smeekens, Bridget A; von Bastian, Claudia C; Lurquin, John H; Carruth, Nicholas P; Miyake, Akira

2017-11-01

A combined experimental-correlational study with a diverse sample (N = 182) from 2 research sites tested a set of 5 a priori hypotheses about mind wandering and learning, using a realistic video lecture on introductory statistics. Specifically, the study examined whether students' vulnerability to mind wandering during the lecture would predict learning from, and situational interest in, the video and also whether longhand note-taking would help reduce mind wandering, at least for some students. One half of the participants took notes during the video, and all were subsequently tested on lecture content without notes. Regression and mediation analyses indicated that (a) several individual-differences variables (e.g., pretest score, prior math interest, classroom media multitasking habits) uniquely predicted in-lecture mind wandering frequency; (b) although the note-taking manipulation did not reduce mind wandering at the group level, note-taking still reduced mind wandering for some individuals (i.e., those with lower prior knowledge and those who took notes of high quality and quantity); (c) mind wandering uniquely predicted both learning (posttest) and situational interest outcomes above and beyond all other individual-differences variables; (d) moreover, mind wandering significantly mediated the effects of several individual differences; and, finally, (e) not all types of mind wandering were problematic-in fact, off-task reflections about lecture-related topics positively predicted learning. These results, which were generally robust across the 2 sites, suggest that educationally focused cognitive research may benefit from considering attentional processes during learning as well as cognitive and noncognitive individual differences that affect attention and learning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Brain Regions Engaged by Part- and Whole-task Performance in a Video Game: A Model-based Test of the Decomposition Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Anderson, John R.; Bothell, Daniel; Fincham, Jon M.; Anderson, Abraham R.; Poole, Ben; Qin, Yulin

2013-01-01

Part- and whole-task conditions were created by manipulating the presence of certain components of the Space Fortress video game. A cognitive model was created for two-part games that could be combined into a model that performed the whole game. The model generated predictions both for behavioral patterns and activation patterns in various brain regions. The activation predictions concerned both tonic activation that was constant in these regions during performance of the game and phasic activation that occurred when there was resource competition. The model’s predictions were confirmed about how tonic and phasic activation in different regions would vary with condition. These results support the Decomposition Hypothesis that the execution of a complex task can be decomposed into a set of information-processing components and that these components combine unchanged in different task conditions. In addition, individual differences in learning gains were predicted by individual differences in phasic activation in those regions that displayed highest tonic activity. This individual difference pattern suggests that the rate of learning of a complex skill is determined by capacity limits. PMID:21557648

Thin-slicing study of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene and the evaluation and expression of the prosocial disposition

PubMed Central

Kogan, Aleksandr; Saslow, Laura R.; Impett, Emily A.; Oveis, Christopher; Keltner, Dacher; Rodrigues Saturn, Sarina

2011-01-01

Individuals who are homozygous for the G allele of the rs53576 SNP of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene tend to be more prosocial than carriers of the A allele. However, little is known about how these differences manifest behaviorally and whether they are readily detectable by outside observers, both critical questions in theoretical accounts of prosociality. In the present study, we used thin-slicing methodology to test the hypotheses that (i) individual differences in rs53576 genotype predict how prosocial observers judge target individuals to be on the basis of brief observations of behavior, and (ii) that variation in targets’ nonverbal displays of affiliative cues would account for these judgment differences. In line with predictions, we found that individuals homozygous for the G allele were judged to be more prosocial than carriers of the A allele. These differences were completely accounted for by variations in the expression of affiliative cues. Thus, individual differences in rs53576 are associated with behavioral manifestations of prosociality, which ultimately guide the judgments others make about the individual. PMID:22084107

Individual differences in temperament and behavioral management practices for nonhuman primates

PubMed Central

Coleman, Kristine

2011-01-01

Effective behavioral management plans are tailored to unique behavioral patterns of each individual species. However, even within a species behavioral needs of individuals can vary. Factors such as age, sex, and temperament can affect behavioral needs of individuals. While some of these factors, such as age and sex, are taken into account, other factors, such as an individual’s temperament, are rarely specifically provided for in behavioral management plans. However, temperament may affect how animals respond to socialization, positive reinforcement training and other forms of enrichment. This review will examine how individual differences in temperament might affect, or be affected by, behavioral management practices for captive primates. Measuring temperament may help us predict outcome of social introductions. It can also predict which animals may be difficult to train using traditional methods. Further, knowledge of temperament may be able to help identify individuals at risk for development of behavioral problems. Taken together, understanding individual differences in temperament of captive primates can help guide behavioral management decisions. PMID:22518067

Individual Differences in Dual Task Performance. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lansman, Marcy; Hunt, Earl

This report summarizes the research results and provides a reference. The basic question addressed was, "Is performance on multi-component tasks predicted by performance on the individual components performed separately?" In the first series of experiments, a dual task involving memory and verbal processing components to predict a…

Predicting risk in space: Genetic markers for differential vulnerability to sleep restriction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Namni; Dinges, David F.

2012-08-01

Several laboratories have found large, highly reliable individual differences in the magnitude of cognitive performance, fatigue and sleepiness, and sleep homeostatic vulnerability to acute total sleep deprivation and to chronic sleep restriction in healthy adults. Such individual differences in neurobehavioral performance are also observed in space flight as a result of sleep loss. The reasons for these stable phenotypic differential vulnerabilities are unknown: such differences are not yet accounted for by demographic factors, IQ or sleep need, and moreover, psychometric scales do not predict those individuals cognitively vulnerable to sleep loss. The stable, trait-like (phenotypic) inter-individual differences observed in response to sleep loss—with intraclass correlation coefficients accounting for 58-92% of the variance in neurobehavioral measures—point to an underlying genetic component. To this end, we utilized multi-day highly controlled laboratory studies to investigate the role of various common candidate gene variants—each independently—in relation to cumulative neurobehavioral and sleep homeostatic responses to sleep restriction. These data suggest that common genetic variations (polymorphisms) involved in sleep-wake, circadian, and cognitive regulation may serve as markers for prediction of inter-individual differences in sleep homeostatic and neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep restriction in healthy adults. Identification of genetic predictors of differential vulnerability to sleep restriction—as determined from candidate gene studies—will help identify astronauts most in need of fatigue countermeasures in space flight and inform medical standards for obtaining adequate sleep in space. This review summarizes individual differences in neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep deprivation and ongoing genetic efforts to identify markers of such differences.

Individual differences in executive processing predict susceptibility to interference in verbal working memory.

PubMed

Hedden, Trey; Yoon, Carolyn

2006-09-01

Recent theories have suggested that resistance to interference is a unifying principle of executive function and that individual differences in interference may be explained by executive function (M. J. Kane & R. W. Engle, 2002). Measures of executive function, memory, and perceptual speed were obtained from 121 older adults (ages 63-82). We used structural equation modeling to investigate the relationships of these constructs with interference in a working memory task. Executive function was best described as two related subcomponent processes: shifting and updating goal-relevant representations and inhibition of proactive interference. These subcomponents were distinct from verbal and visual memory and speed. Individual differences in interference susceptibility and recollection were best predicted by shifting and updating and by resistance to proactive interference, and variability in familiarity was predicted by resistance to proactive interference and speed. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Musical Preferences Predict Personality: Evidence From Active Listening and Facebook Likes.

PubMed

Nave, Gideon; Minxha, Juri; Greenberg, David M; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David; Rentfrow, Jason

2018-03-01

Research over the past decade has shown that various personality traits are communicated through musical preferences. One limitation of that research is external validity, as most studies have assessed individual differences in musical preferences using self-reports of music-genre preferences. Are personality traits communicated through behavioral manifestations of musical preferences? We addressed this question in two large-scale online studies with demographically diverse populations. Study 1 ( N = 22,252) shows that reactions to unfamiliar musical excerpts predicted individual differences in personality-most notably, openness and extraversion-above and beyond demographic characteristics. Moreover, these personality traits were differentially associated with particular music-preference dimensions. The results from Study 2 ( N = 21,929) replicated and extended these findings by showing that an active measure of naturally occurring behavior, Facebook Likes for musical artists, also predicted individual differences in personality. In general, our findings establish the robustness and external validity of the links between musical preferences and personality.

Neuroanatomy of the vmPFC and dlPFC predicts individual differences in cognitive regulation during dietary self-control across regulation strategies.

PubMed

Schmidt, Liane; Tusche, Anita; Manoharan, Nicolas; Hutcherson, Cendri; Hare, Todd; Plassmann, Hilke

2018-06-04

Making healthy food choices is challenging for many people. Individuals differ greatly in their ability to follow health goals in the face of temptation, but it is unclear what underlies such differences. Using voxel-based morphometry (VBM), we investigated in healthy humans (i.e., men and women) links between structural variation in gray matter volume and individuals' level of success in shifting toward healthier food choices. We combined MRI and choice data into a joint dataset by pooling across three independent studies that employed a task prompting participants to explicitly focus on the healthiness of food items before making their food choices. Within this dataset, we found that individual differences in gray matter volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) predicted regulatory success. We extended and confirmed these initial findings by predicting regulatory success out of sample and across tasks in a second dataset requiring participants to apply a different regulation strategy that entailed distancing from cravings for unhealthy, appetitive foods. Our findings suggest that neuroanatomical markers in the vmPFC and dlPFC generalized to different forms of dietary regulation strategies across participant groups. They provide novel evidence that structural differences in neuroanatomy of two key regions for valuation and its control, the vmPFC and dlPFC, predict an individual's ability to exert control in dietary choices. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Dieting involves regulating food choices in order to eat healthier foods and fewer unhealthy foods. People differ dramatically in their ability to achieve or maintain this regulation, but it is unclear why. Here, we show that individuals with more gray matter volume in the dorsolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are better at exercising dietary self-control. This relationship was observed across four different studies examining two different forms of dietary self-regulation, suggesting that neuroanatomical differences in the vmPFC and dlPFC may represent a general marker for self-control abilities. These results identify candidate neuroanatomical markers for dieting success and failure, and suggest potential targets for therapies aimed at preventing or treating obesity and related eating disorders. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

PubMed

Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

2007-10-01

We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

Gender, Emotion Work, and Relationship Quality: A Daily Diary Study.

PubMed

Curran, Melissa A; McDaniel, Brandon T; Pollitt, Amanda M; Totenhagen, Casey J

2015-08-01

We use the gender relations perspective from feminist theorizing to investigate how gender and daily emotion work predict daily relationship quality in 74 couples (148 individuals in dating, cohabiting, or married relationships) primarily from the southwest U.S. Emotion work is characterized by activities that enhance others' emotional well-being. We examined emotion work two ways: trait (individuals' average levels) and state (individuals' daily fluctuations). We examined actor and partner effects of emotion work and tested for gender differences. As outcome variables, we included six types of daily relationship quality: love, commitment, satisfaction, closeness, ambivalence, and conflict. This approach allowed us to predict three aspects of relationship quality: average levels, daily fluctuations, and volatility (overall daily variability across a week). Three patterns emerged. First, emotion work predicted relationship quality in this diverse set of couples. Second, gender differences were minimal for fixed effects: Trait and state emotion work predicted higher average scores on, and positive daily increases in, individuals' own positive relationship quality and lower average ambivalence. Third, gender differences were more robust for volatility: For partner effects, having a partner who reported higher average emotion work predicted lower volatility in love, satisfaction, and closeness for women versus greater volatility in love and commitment for men. Neither gender nor emotion work predicted average levels, daily fluctuations, or volatility in conflict. We discuss implications and future directions pertaining to the unique role of gender in understanding the associations between daily emotion work and volatility in daily relationship quality for relational partners.

Working Memory Delay Activity Predicts Individual Differences in Cognitive Abilities

PubMed Central

Unsworth, Nash; Fukuda, Keisuke; Awh, Edward; Vogel, Edward K.

2015-01-01

A great deal of prior research has examined the relation between estimates of working memory and cognitive abilities. Yet, the neural mechanisms that account for these relations are still not very well understood. The current study explored whether individual differences in working memory delay activity would be a significant predictor of cognitive abilities. A large number of participants performed multiple measures of capacity, attention control, long-term memory, working memory span, and fluid intelligence, and latent variable analyses were used to examine the data. During two working memory change detection tasks, we acquired EEG data and examined the contra-lateral delay activity. The results demonstrated that the contralateral delay activity was significantly related to cognitive abilities, and importantly these relations were because of individual differences in both capacity and attention control. These results suggest that individual differences in working memory delay activity predict individual differences in a broad range of cognitive abilities, and this is because of both differences in the number of items that can be maintained and the ability to control access to working memory. PMID:25436671

Working memory delay activity predicts individual differences in cognitive abilities.

PubMed

Unsworth, Nash; Fukuda, Keisuke; Awh, Edward; Vogel, Edward K

2015-05-01

A great deal of prior research has examined the relation between estimates of working memory and cognitive abilities. Yet, the neural mechanisms that account for these relations are still not very well understood. The current study explored whether individual differences in working memory delay activity would be a significant predictor of cognitive abilities. A large number of participants performed multiple measures of capacity, attention control, long-term memory, working memory span, and fluid intelligence, and latent variable analyses were used to examine the data. During two working memory change detection tasks, we acquired EEG data and examined the contralateral delay activity. The results demonstrated that the contralateral delay activity was significantly related to cognitive abilities, and importantly these relations were because of individual differences in both capacity and attention control. These results suggest that individual differences in working memory delay activity predict individual differences in a broad range of cognitive abilities, and this is because of both differences in the number of items that can be maintained and the ability to control access to working memory.

Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

PubMed

McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

2017-08-01

Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Frontal-striatum dysfunction during reward processing: Relationships to amotivation in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Chung, Yu Sun; Barch, Deanna M

2016-04-01

Schizophrenia is characterized by deficits of context processing, thought to be related to dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) impairment. Despite emerging evidence suggesting a crucial role of the DLPFC in integrating reward and goal information, we do not know whether individuals with schizophrenia can represent and integrate reward-related context information to modulate cognitive control. To address this question, 36 individuals with schizophrenia (n = 29) or schizoaffective disorder (n = 7) and 27 healthy controls performed a variant of a response conflict task (Padmala & Pessoa, 2011) during fMRI scanning, in both baseline and reward conditions, with monetary incentives on some reward trials. We used a mixed state-item design that allowed us to examine both sustained and transient reward effects on cognitive control. Different from predictions about impaired DLPFC function in schizophrenia, we found an intact pattern of increased sustained DLPFC activity during reward versus baseline blocks in individuals with schizophrenia at a group level but blunted sustained activations in the putamen. Contrary to our predictions, individuals with schizophrenia showed blunted cue-related activations in several regions of the basal ganglia responding to reward-predicting cues. Importantly, as predicted, individual differences in anhedonia/amotivation symptoms severity were significantly associated with reduced sustained DLPFC activation in the same region that showed overall increased activity as a function of reward. These results suggest that individual differences in motivational impairments in schizophrenia may be related to dysfunction of the DLPFC and striatum in motivationally salient situations. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Predicts Cognitive Impairment Related to Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Lin, Qi; Rosenberg, Monica D; Yoo, Kwangsun; Hsu, Tiffany W; O'Connell, Thomas P; Chun, Marvin M

2018-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC) is a promising neuromarker for cognitive decline in aging population, based on its ability to reveal functional differences associated with cognitive impairment across individuals, and because rs-fMRI may be less taxing for participants than task-based fMRI or neuropsychological tests. Here, we employ an approach that uses rs-FC to predict the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (11 items; ADAS11) scores, which measure overall cognitive functioning, in novel individuals. We applied this technique, connectome-based predictive modeling, to a heterogeneous sample of 59 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, including normal aging, mild cognitive impairment, and AD subjects. First, we built linear regression models to predict ADAS11 scores from rs-FC measured with Pearson's r correlation. The positive network model tested with leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) significantly predicted individual differences in cognitive function from rs-FC. In a second analysis, we considered other functional connectivity features, accordance and discordance, which disentangle the correlation and anticorrelation components of activity timecourses between brain areas. Using partial least square regression and LOOCV, we again built models to successfully predict ADAS11 scores in novel individuals. Our study provides promising evidence that rs-FC can reveal cognitive impairment in an aging population, although more development is needed for clinical application.

Link prediction measures considering different neighbors’ effects and application in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Peng; Wu, Chong; Li, Yongli

Link prediction measures have been attracted particular attention in the field of mathematical physics. In this paper, we consider the different effects of neighbors in link prediction and focus on four different situations: only consider the individual’s own effects; consider the effects of individual, neighbors and neighbors’ neighbors; consider the effects of individual, neighbors, neighbors’ neighbors, neighbors’ neighbors’ neighbors and neighbors’ neighbors’ neighbors’ neighbors; consider the whole network participants’ effects. Then, according to the four situations, we present our link prediction models which also take the effects of social characteristics into consideration. An artificial network is adopted to illustrate the parameter estimation based on logistic regression. Furthermore, we compare our methods with the some other link prediction methods (LPMs) to examine the validity of our proposed model in online social networks. The results show the superior of our proposed link prediction methods compared with others. In the application part, our models are applied to study the social network evolution and used to recommend friends and cooperators in social networks.

Predicting individual fusional range from optometric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endrikhovski, Serguei; Jin, Elaine; Miller, Michael E.; Ford, Robert W.

2005-03-01

A model was developed to predict the range of disparities that can be fused by an individual user from optometric measurements. This model uses parameters, such as dissociated phoria and fusional reserves, to calculate an individual user"s fusional range (i.e., the disparities that can be fused on stereoscopic displays) when the user views a stereoscopic stimulus from various distances. This model is validated by comparing its output with data from a study in which the individual fusional range of a group of users was quantified while they viewed a stereoscopic display from distances of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 meters. Overall, the model provides good data predictions for the majority of the subjects and can be generalized for other viewing conditions. The model may, therefore, be used within a customized stereoscopic system, which would render stereoscopic information in a way that accounts for the individual differences in fusional range. Because the comfort of an individual user also depends on the user"s ability to fuse stereo images, such a system may, consequently, improve the comfort level and viewing experience for people with different stereoscopic fusional capabilities.

Individual differences in intrinsic brain connectivity predict decision strategy.

PubMed

Barnes, Kelly Anne; Anderson, Kevin M; Plitt, Mark; Martin, Alex

2014-10-15

When humans are provided with ample time to make a decision, individual differences in strategy emerge. Using an adaptation of a well-studied decision making paradigm, motion direction discrimination, we probed the neural basis of individual differences in strategy. We tested whether strategies emerged from moment-to-moment reconfiguration of functional brain networks involved in decision making with task-evoked functional MRI (fMRI) and whether intrinsic properties of functional brain networks, measured at rest with functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI), were associated with strategy use. We found that human participants reliably selected one of two strategies across 2 days of task performance, either continuously accumulating evidence or waiting for task difficulty to decrease. Individual differences in decision strategy were predicted both by the degree of task-evoked activation of decision-related brain regions and by the strength of pretask correlated spontaneous brain activity. These results suggest that spontaneous brain activity constrains strategy selection on perceptual decisions.

Testing the predictions of coping styles theory in threespined sticklebacks

PubMed Central

Bensky, Miles K.; Paitz, Ryan; Pereira, Laura; Bell, Alison M.

2017-01-01

Coping styles theory provides a framework for understanding individual variation in how animals respond to environmental change, and predicts how individual differences in stress responsiveness and behavior might relate to cognitive differences. According to coping styles theory, proactive individuals are bolder, less reactive to stressors, and more routinized than their reactive counterparts. A key tenet of coping styles theory is that variation in coping styles is maintained by tradeoffs with behavioral flexibility: proactive individuals excel in stable environments while more flexible, reactive individuals perform better in variable environments. Here, we assess evidence for coping styles within a natural population of threespined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We developed a criterion-based learning paradigm to evaluate individual variation in initial and reversal learning. We observed strong individual differences in boldness, cortisol production, and learning performance. Consistent with coping styles, fish that released more cortisol were more timid in response to a predator attack and slower to learn a color discrimination task. However, there was no evidence that reactive individuals performed better when the environment changed (when the rewarded color was reversed). The failure to detect trade-offs between behavioral routinization and flexibility prompts other explanations for the maintenance of differing coping styles. PMID:28017848

Different Roles of Direct and Indirect Frontoparietal Pathways for Individual Working Memory Capacity.

PubMed

Ekman, Matthias; Fiebach, Christian J; Melzer, Corina; Tittgemeyer, Marc; Derrfuss, Jan

2016-03-09

The ability to temporarily store and manipulate information in working memory is a hallmark of human intelligence and differs considerably across individuals, but the structural brain correlates underlying these differences in working memory capacity (WMC) are only poorly understood. In two separate studies, diffusion MRI data and WMC scores were collected for 70 and 109 healthy individuals. Using a combination of probabilistic tractography and network analysis of the white matter tracts, we examined whether structural brain network properties were predictive of individual WMC. Converging evidence from both studies showed that lateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex of high-capacity individuals are more densely connected compared with low-capacity individuals. Importantly, our network approach was further able to dissociate putative functional roles associated with two different pathways connecting frontal and parietal regions: a corticocortical pathway and a subcortical pathway. In Study 1, where participants were required to maintain and update working memory items, the connectivity of the direct and indirect pathway was predictive of WMC. In contrast, in Study 2, where participants were required to maintain working memory items without updating, only the connectivity of the direct pathway was predictive of individual WMC. Our results suggest an important dissociation in the circuitry connecting frontal and parietal regions, where direct frontoparietal connections might support storage and maintenance, whereas subcortically mediated connections support the flexible updating of working memory content. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/362894-10$15.00/0.

Personality traits and individual differences predict threat-induced changes in postural control.

PubMed

Zaback, Martin; Cleworth, Taylor W; Carpenter, Mark G; Adkin, Allan L

2015-04-01

This study explored whether specific personality traits and individual differences could predict changes in postural control when presented with a height-induced postural threat. Eighty-two healthy young adults completed questionnaires to assess trait anxiety, trait movement reinvestment (conscious motor processing, movement self-consciousness), physical risk-taking, and previous experience with height-related activities. Tests of static (quiet standing) and anticipatory (rise to toes) postural control were completed under low and high postural threat conditions. Personality traits and individual differences significantly predicted height-induced changes in static, but not anticipatory postural control. Individuals less prone to taking physical risks were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at higher frequencies and smaller amplitudes. Individuals more prone to conscious motor processing were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at larger amplitudes. Individuals more self-conscious about their movement appearance were more likely to sway at smaller amplitudes. Evidence is also provided that relationships between physical risk-taking and changes in static postural control are mediated through changes in fear of falling and physiological arousal. Results from this study may have indirect implications for balance assessment and treatment; however, further work exploring these factors in patient populations is necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

PubMed

Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

2016-10-01

Significant disruption in caregiving is associated with increased internalizing symptoms, most notably heightened separation anxiety symptoms during childhood. It is also associated with altered functional development of the amygdala, a neurobiological correlate of anxious behavior. However, much less is known about how functional alterations of amygdala predict individual differences in anxiety. Here, we probed amygdala function following institutional caregiving using very subtle social-affective stimuli (trustworthy and untrustworthy faces), which typically result in large differences in amygdala signal, and change in separation anxiety behaviors over a 2-year period. We hypothesized that the degree of differentiation of amygdala signal to trustworthy versus untrustworthy face stimuli would predict separation anxiety symptoms. Seventy-four youths mean (SD) age = 9.7 years (2.64) with and without previous institutional care, who were all living in families at the time of testing, participated in an fMRI task designed to examine differential amygdala response to trustworthy versus untrustworthy faces. Parents reported on their children's separation anxiety symptoms at the time of scan and again 2 years later. Previous institutional care was associated with diminished amygdala signal differences and behavioral differences to the contrast of untrustworthy and trustworthy faces. Diminished differentiation of these stimuli types predicted more severe separation anxiety symptoms 2 years later. Older age at adoption was associated with diminished differentiation of amygdala responses. A history of institutional care is associated with reduced differential amygdala responses to social-affective cues of trustworthiness that are typically exhibited by comparison samples. Individual differences in the degree of amygdala differential responding to these cues predict the severity of separation anxiety symptoms over a 2-year period. These findings provide a biological mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Predicting variations of perceptual performance across individuals from neural activity using pattern classifiers.

PubMed

Das, Koel; Giesbrecht, Barry; Eckstein, Miguel P

2010-07-15

Within the past decade computational approaches adopted from the field of machine learning have provided neuroscientists with powerful new tools for analyzing neural data. For instance, previous studies have applied pattern classification algorithms to electroencephalography data to predict the category of presented visual stimuli, human observer decision choices and task difficulty. Here, we quantitatively compare the ability of pattern classifiers and three ERP metrics (peak amplitude, mean amplitude, and onset latency of the face-selective N170) to predict variations across individuals' behavioral performance in a difficult perceptual task identifying images of faces and cars embedded in noise. We investigate three different pattern classifiers (Classwise Principal Component Analysis, CPCA; Linear Discriminant Analysis, LDA; and Support Vector Machine, SVM), five training methods differing in the selection of training data sets and three analyses procedures for the ERP measures. We show that all three pattern classifier algorithms surpass traditional ERP measurements in their ability to predict individual differences in performance. Although the differences across pattern classifiers were not large, the CPCA method with training data sets restricted to EEG activity for trials in which observers expressed high confidence about their decisions performed the highest at predicting perceptual performance of observers. We also show that the neural activity predicting the performance across individuals was distributed through time starting at 120ms, and unlike the face-selective ERP response, sustained for more than 400ms after stimulus presentation, indicating that both early and late components contain information correlated with observers' behavioral performance. Together, our results further demonstrate the potential of pattern classifiers compared to more traditional ERP techniques as an analysis tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of the human brain and relating neural activity to behavior. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions: an event-related potentials study.

PubMed

Tamamiya, Yoshiyuki; Hiraki, Kazuo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that early posterior components of event-related potentials (ERPs) are modulated by facial expressions. The goal of the current study was to investigate individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions by examining the relationship between ERP components and the discrimination of facial expressions. Pictures of 3 facial expressions (angry, happy, and neutral) were presented to 36 young adults during ERP recording. Participants were asked to respond with a button press as soon as they recognized the expression depicted. A multiple regression analysis, where ERP components were set as predictor variables, assessed hits and reaction times in response to the facial expressions as dependent variables. The N170 amplitudes significantly predicted for accuracy of angry and happy expressions, and the N170 latencies were predictive for accuracy of neutral expressions. The P2 amplitudes significantly predicted reaction time. The P2 latencies significantly predicted reaction times only for neutral faces. These results suggest that individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions emerge from early components in visual processing.

Sharing Concerns: Interpersonal Worry Regulation in Romantic Couples

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Two dyadic studies investigated interpersonal worry regulation in heterosexual relationships. In Study 1, we video-recorded 40 romantic couples discussing shared concerns. Male partners’ worry positively predicted female partners’ interpersonal calming attempts, and negatively predicted female partners’ interpersonal alerting attempts (i.e., attempts to make their partners appreciate the seriousness of concerns). Video-cued recall data also indicated that changes in partner A’s worry over time positively predicted partner B’s motivation to reduce partner A’s worry, and that this effect was stronger when B was the female partner. Study 2 was a dyadic survey of 100 couples. Individual differences in partner A’s negative affect were positive predictors of partner B’s interpersonal calming, and individual differences in partner A’s expressive suppression were negative predictors of partner B’s interpersonal calming. Further, individual differences in male partners’ expressivity were significant positive predictors of female partners’ interpersonal calming, and individual differences in male partners’ reappraisal were significant positive predictors of female partners’ interpersonal alerting. These findings suggest that interpersonal worry regulation relates to partners’ expression and intrapersonal regulation of worry, but not equally for men and women. PMID:26882336

YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN LUNG FUNCTION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH CYSTIC FIBROSIS

PubMed Central

Liou, Theodore G.; Elkin, Eric P.; Pasta, David J.; Jacobs, Joan R.; Konstan, Michael W.; Morgan, Wayne J.; Wagener, Jeffrey S.

2014-01-01

Background We examined the year-to-year change in FEV1 for individuals and the overall cystic fibrosis population to better understand how individual trends may differ from population trends. Methods We calculated individual yearly changes using the largest annual FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1%) measurement in 20,644 patients (6–45 years old) included in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. We calculated yearly population changes using age-specific medians. Results FEV1% predicted decreased 1–3 points per year for individuals, with maximal decreases in 14–15 year olds. Population changes agreed with individual changes up to age 15; however after age 30, yearly population change approximated zero while individual FEV1% predicted decreases were 1–2 points per year. Conclusions Adolescents have the greatest FEV1% predicted decreases; however. loss of FEV1 is a persistent risk in 6–45 year old CF patients. Recognizing individual year-to-year changes may improve patient-specific care and may suggest new methods for measuring program quality. PMID:20471331

Stability of individual loudness functions obtained by magnitude estimation and production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hellman, R. P.

1981-01-01

A correlational analysis of individual magnitude estimation and production exponents at the same frequency is performed, as is an analysis of individual exponents produced in different sessions by the same procedure across frequency (250, 1000, and 3000 Hz). Taken as a whole, the results show that individual exponent differences do not decrease by counterbalancing magnitude estimation with magnitude production and that individual exponent differences remain stable over time despite changes in stimulus frequency. Further results show that although individual magnitude estimation and production exponents do not necessarily obey the .6 power law, it is possible to predict the slope of an equal-sensation function averaged for a group of listeners from individual magnitude estimation and production data. On the assumption that individual listeners with sensorineural hearing also produce stable and reliable magnitude functions, it is also shown that the slope of the loudness-recruitment function measured by magnitude estimation and production can be predicted for individuals with bilateral losses of long duration. Results obtained in normal and pathological ears thus suggest that individual listeners can produce loudness judgements that reveal, although indirectly, the input-output characteristic of the auditory system.

Comparing Binaural Pre-processing Strategies III

PubMed Central

Warzybok, Anna; Ernst, Stephan M. A.

2015-01-01

A comprehensive evaluation of eight signal pre-processing strategies, including directional microphones, coherence filters, single-channel noise reduction, binaural beamformers, and their combinations, was undertaken with normal-hearing (NH) and hearing-impaired (HI) listeners. Speech reception thresholds (SRTs) were measured in three noise scenarios (multitalker babble, cafeteria noise, and single competing talker). Predictions of three common instrumental measures were compared with the general perceptual benefit caused by the algorithms. The individual SRTs measured without pre-processing and individual benefits were objectively estimated using the binaural speech intelligibility model. Ten listeners with NH and 12 HI listeners participated. The participants varied in age and pure-tone threshold levels. Although HI listeners required a better signal-to-noise ratio to obtain 50% intelligibility than listeners with NH, no differences in SRT benefit from the different algorithms were found between the two groups. With the exception of single-channel noise reduction, all algorithms showed an improvement in SRT of between 2.1 dB (in cafeteria noise) and 4.8 dB (in single competing talker condition). Model predictions with binaural speech intelligibility model explained 83% of the measured variance of the individual SRTs in the no pre-processing condition. Regarding the benefit from the algorithms, the instrumental measures were not able to predict the perceptual data in all tested noise conditions. The comparable benefit observed for both groups suggests a possible application of noise reduction schemes for listeners with different hearing status. Although the model can predict the individual SRTs without pre-processing, further development is necessary to predict the benefits obtained from the algorithms at an individual level. PMID:26721922

Consistent Individual Differences Drive Collective Behavior and Group Functioning of Schooling Fish.

PubMed

Jolles, Jolle W; Boogert, Neeltje J; Sridhar, Vivek H; Couzin, Iain D; Manica, Andrea

2017-09-25

The ubiquity of consistent inter-individual differences in behavior ("animal personalities") [1, 2] suggests that they might play a fundamental role in driving the movements and functioning of animal groups [3, 4], including their collective decision-making, foraging performance, and predator avoidance. Despite increasing evidence that highlights their importance [5-16], we still lack a unified mechanistic framework to explain and to predict how consistent inter-individual differences may drive collective behavior. Here we investigate how the structure, leadership, movement dynamics, and foraging performance of groups can emerge from inter-individual differences by high-resolution tracking of known behavioral types in free-swimming stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) shoals. We show that individual's propensity to stay near others, measured by a classic "sociability" assay, was negatively linked to swim speed across a range of contexts, and predicted spatial positioning and leadership within groups as well as differences in structure and movement dynamics between groups. In turn, this trait, together with individual's exploratory tendency, measured by a classic "boldness" assay, explained individual and group foraging performance. These effects of consistent individual differences on group-level states emerged naturally from a generic model of self-organizing groups composed of individuals differing in speed and goal-orientedness. Our study provides experimental and theoretical evidence for a simple mechanism to explain the emergence of collective behavior from consistent individual differences, including variation in the structure, leadership, movement dynamics, and functional capabilities of groups, across social and ecological scales. In addition, we demonstrate individual performance is conditional on group composition, indicating how social selection may drive behavioral differentiation between individuals. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Causal Genetic Variation Underlying Metabolome Differences.

PubMed

Swain-Lenz, Devjanee; Nikolskiy, Igor; Cheng, Jiye; Sudarsanam, Priya; Nayler, Darcy; Staller, Max V; Cohen, Barak A

2017-08-01

An ongoing challenge in biology is to predict the phenotypes of individuals from their genotypes. Genetic variants that cause disease often change an individual's total metabolite profile, or metabolome. In light of our extensive knowledge of metabolic pathways, genetic variants that alter the metabolome may help predict novel phenotypes. To link genetic variants to changes in the metabolome, we studied natural variation in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae We used an untargeted mass spectrometry method to identify dozens of metabolite Quantitative Trait Loci (mQTL), genomic regions containing genetic variation that control differences in metabolite levels between individuals. We mapped differences in urea cycle metabolites to genetic variation in specific genes known to regulate amino acid biosynthesis. Our functional assays reveal that genetic variation in two genes, AUA1 and ARG81 , cause the differences in the abundance of several urea cycle metabolites. Based on knowledge of the urea cycle, we predicted and then validated a new phenotype: sensitivity to a particular class of amino acid isomers. Our results are a proof-of-concept that untargeted mass spectrometry can reveal links between natural genetic variants and metabolome diversity. The interpretability of our results demonstrates the promise of using genetic variants underlying natural differences in the metabolome to predict novel phenotypes from genotype. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Verbal and visual-spatial working memory and mathematical ability in different domains throughout primary school.

PubMed

Van de Weijer-Bergsma, Eva; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H; Van Luit, Johannes E H

2015-04-01

The relative importance of visual-spatial and verbal working memory for mathematics performance and learning seems to vary with age, the novelty of the material, and the specific math domain that is investigated. In this study, the relations between verbal and visual-spatial working memory and performance in four math domains (i.e., addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division) at different ages during primary school are investigated. Children (N = 4337) from grades 2 through 6 participated. Visual-spatial and verbal working memory were assessed using online computerized tasks. Math performance was assessed at the start, middle, and end of the school year using a speeded arithmetic test. Multilevel Multigroup Latent Growth Modeling was used to model individual differences in level and growth in math performance, and examine the predictive value of working memory per grade, while controlling for effects of classroom membership. The results showed that as grade level progressed, the predictive value of visual-spatial working memory for individual differences in level of mathematics performance waned, while the predictive value of verbal working memory increased. Working memory did not predict individual differences between children in their rate of performance growth throughout the school year. These findings are discussed in relation to three, not mutually exclusive, explanations for such age-related findings.

Individual Differences in Base Rate Neglect: A Fuzzy Processing Preference Index

PubMed Central

Wolfe, Christopher R.; Fisher, Christopher R.

2013-01-01

Little is known about individual differences in integrating numeric base-rates and qualitative text in making probability judgments. Fuzzy-Trace Theory predicts a preference for fuzzy processing. We conducted six studies to develop the FPPI, a reliable and valid instrument assessing individual differences in this fuzzy processing preference. It consists of 19 probability estimation items plus 4 "M-Scale" items that distinguish simple pattern matching from “base rate respect.” Cronbach's Alpha was consistently above 0.90. Validity is suggested by significant correlations between FPPI scores and three other measurers: "Rule Based" Process Dissociation Procedure scores; the number of conjunction fallacies in joint probability estimation; and logic index scores on syllogistic reasoning. Replicating norms collected in a university study with a web-based study produced negligible differences in FPPI scores, indicating robustness. The predicted relationships between individual differences in base rate respect and both conjunction fallacies and syllogistic reasoning were partially replicated in two web-based studies. PMID:23935255

Episodic autobiographical memory is associated with variation in the size of hippocampal subregions.

PubMed

Palombo, Daniela J; Bacopulos, Agnes; Amaral, Robert S C; Olsen, Rosanna K; Todd, Rebecca M; Anderson, Adam K; Levine, Brian

2018-02-01

Striking individual differences exist in the human capacity to recollect past events, yet, little is known about the neural correlates of such individual differences. Studies investigating hippocampal volume in relation to individual differences in laboratory measures of episodic memory in young adults suggest that whole hippocampal volume is unrelated (or even negatively associated) with episodic memory. However, anatomical and functional specialization across hippocampal subregions suggests that individual differences in episodic memory may be linked to particular hippocampal subregions, as opposed to whole hippocampal volume. Given that the DG/CA 2/3 circuitry is thought to be especially critical for supporting episodic memory in humans, we predicted that the volume of this region would be associated with individual variability in episodic memory. This prediction was supported using high-resolution MRI of the hippocampal subfields and measures of real-world (autobiographical) episodic memory. In addition to the association with DG/CA 2/3 , we further observed a relationship between episodic autobiographical memory and subiculum volume, whereas no association was observed with CA 1 or with whole hippocampal volume. These findings provide insight into the possible neural substrates that mediate individual differences in real-world episodic remembering in humans. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multifractality in individual honeybee behavior hints at colony-specific social cascades: Reanalysis of radio-frequency identification data from five different colonies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carver, Nicole S.; Kelty-Stephen, Damian G.

2017-02-01

Honeybees (Apis mellifera) exhibit complex coordination and interaction across multiple behaviors such as swarming. This coordination among honeybees in the same colony is remarkably similar to the concept of informational cascades. The multifractal geometry of cascades suggests that multifractal measures of individual honeybee activity might carry signatures of these colony-wide coordinations. The present work reanalyzes time stamps of entrances to and exits from the hive captured by radio-frequency identification (RFID) sensors reading RFID tags on individual bees. Indeed, both multifractal spectrum width for individual bees' inter-reading interval series and differences of those widths from surrogates significantly predicted not just whether the individual bee's hive had a mesh enclosure but also predicted the specific membership of individual bees in one of five colonies. The significant effects of multifractality in matching honeybee activity to type of colony and, further, matching individual honeybees to their exact home colony suggests that multifractality quantifies key features of the colony-wide interactions across many scales. This relevance of multifractality to predicting colony type or colony membership adds additional credence to the cascade metaphor for colony organization. Perhaps, multifractality provides a new tool for exploring the relationship between individual organisms and larger, more complex social behaviors.

Curious Eyes: Individual Differences in Personality Predict Eye Movement Behavior in Scene-Viewing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Risko, Evan F.; Anderson, Nicola C.; Lanthier, Sophie; Kingstone, Alan

2012-01-01

Visual exploration is driven by two main factors--the stimuli in our environment, and our own individual interests and intentions. Research investigating these two aspects of attentional guidance has focused almost exclusively on factors common across individuals. The present study took a different tack, and examined the role played by individual…

Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: a challenge for forensic practice.

PubMed

Cooke, David J; Michie, Christine

2010-08-01

Knowledge of group tendencies may not assist accurate predictions in the individual case. This has importance for forensic decision making and for the assessment tools routinely applied in forensic evaluations. In this article, we applied Monte Carlo methods to examine diagnostic agreement with different levels of inter-rater agreement given the distributional characteristics of PCL-R scores. Diagnostic agreement and score agreement were substantially less than expected. In addition, we examined the confidence intervals associated with individual predictions of violent recidivism. On the basis of empirical findings, statistical theory, and logic, we conclude that predictions of future offending cannot be achieved in the individual case with any degree of confidence. We discuss the problems identified in relation to the PCL-R in terms of the broader relevance to all instruments used in forensic decision making.

The Predictive Role of Interpersonal Sensitivity and Emotional Self-Efficacy on Psychological Resilience among Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aydogdu, Bilge Nuran; Celik, Hilal; Eksi, Halil

2017-01-01

Purpose: In the face of adverse and traumatic events throughout their lives, individuals respond in different ways depending on their degree of resilience, factors of which include their individual resources for coping with those events. This study examined the predictive role of emotional self-efficacy and interpersonal sensitivity on…

Modeling individual tree survial

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2016-01-01

Information provided by growth and yield models is the basis for forest managers to make decisions on how to manage their forests. Among different types of growth models, whole-stand models offer predictions at stand level, whereas individual-tree models give detailed information at tree level. The well-known logistic regression is commonly used to predict tree...

Optimal predictions in everyday cognition: the wisdom of individuals or crowds?

PubMed

Mozer, Michael C; Pashler, Harold; Homaei, Hadjar

2008-10-01

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over many individuals. On the conjecture that the accuracy of the group response is chiefly a consequence of aggregating across individuals, we constructed simple, heuristic approximations to the Bayesian model premised on the hypothesis that individuals have access merely to a sample of k instances drawn from the relevant distribution. The accuracy of the group response reported by Griffiths and Tenenbaum could be accounted for by supposing that individuals each utilize only two instances. Moreover, the variability of the group data is more consistent with this small-sample hypothesis than with the hypothesis that people utilize veridical or nearly veridical representations of the underlying prior distributions. Our analyses lead to a qualitatively different view of how individuals reason from past experience than the view espoused by Griffiths and Tenenbaum. 2008 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

The effect of machine learning regression algorithms and sample size on individualized behavioral prediction with functional connectivity features.

PubMed

Cui, Zaixu; Gong, Gaolang

2018-06-02

Individualized behavioral/cognitive prediction using machine learning (ML) regression approaches is becoming increasingly applied. The specific ML regression algorithm and sample size are two key factors that non-trivially influence prediction accuracies. However, the effects of the ML regression algorithm and sample size on individualized behavioral/cognitive prediction performance have not been comprehensively assessed. To address this issue, the present study included six commonly used ML regression algorithms: ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic-net regression, linear support vector regression (LSVR), and relevance vector regression (RVR), to perform specific behavioral/cognitive predictions based on different sample sizes. Specifically, the publicly available resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) dataset from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) was used, and whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) or rsFC strength (rsFCS) were extracted as prediction features. Twenty-five sample sizes (ranged from 20 to 700) were studied by sub-sampling from the entire HCP cohort. The analyses showed that rsFC-based LASSO regression performed remarkably worse than the other algorithms, and rsFCS-based OLS regression performed markedly worse than the other algorithms. Regardless of the algorithm and feature type, both the prediction accuracy and its stability exponentially increased with increasing sample size. The specific patterns of the observed algorithm and sample size effects were well replicated in the prediction using re-testing fMRI data, data processed by different imaging preprocessing schemes, and different behavioral/cognitive scores, thus indicating excellent robustness/generalization of the effects. The current findings provide critical insight into how the selected ML regression algorithm and sample size influence individualized predictions of behavior/cognition and offer important guidance for choosing the ML regression algorithm or sample size in relevant investigations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual Differences in Achievement Goals among Young Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smiley, Patricia A.; Dweck, Carol S.

1994-01-01

Tested on preschoolers a goal-confidence model for older children that predicts achievement behavior during failure. Found that individual differences in achievement goals emerge very early. Children appeared to have developed a mechanism for selecting learning opportunities prior to formal school experience. (AA)

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in in-person and social media television coviewing: the role of emotional contagion, need to belong, and coviewing orientation.

PubMed

Cohen, Elizabeth L; Lancaster, Alexander L

2014-08-01

The popularity of social media television coviewing is growing, but little is known about why people engage in these connected viewing experiences or how they differ from in-person coviewing. This study investigated how engaging in in-person and social media coviewing is predicted by individual differences: emotional contagion, need to belong, and three dimensions of a coviewing orientation scale created for this research (need for company, need for solitude, and audience monitoring). On Amazon Mechanical Turk, 451 people were recruited for an online survey. The mean age was 34.64 years (SD=13.16 years), and 52% of the sample was female. Emotional contagion predicted in-person coviewing only. Need to belong predicted several mediated co-viewing activities. Need for solitude negatively predicted in-person coviewing, but need for company positively predicted in-person coviewing. Results indicate that viewers have different motivations for engaging in various coviewing activities. Findings also suggest that social media coviewing can provide valuable opportunities for social connection among viewers who watch television in physical solitude.

Relationship between hypnosis and personality trait in participants with high or low hypnotic susceptibility

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yingchun; Wang, Yunke; Shen, Chanchan; Ye, Yingying; Shen, Si; Zhang, Bingren; Wang, Jiawei; Chen, Wei; Wang, Wei

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between normal personality and hypnotic susceptibility is important for understanding mental processing and mental disorders, but it is less consistent in normal people or in patients with a psychiatric disorder. We have hypothesized that the correlation exists but varies in individuals with different levels of hypnotizability. Participants and methods We invited 72 individuals with high (HIGH group) and 47 individuals with low (LOW group) hypnotic susceptibilities to undertake tests of NEO-PI-R and the Stanford Hypnotic Susceptibility Scale, Form C (SHSSC). Results The HIGH group scored significantly higher than the LOW group did on openness to experience and its facet openness to feelings. In the LOW group, SHSSC total was positively predicted by openness to ideas; age regression was positively predicted by openness to experience and negatively predicted by extraversion; anosmia to ammonia was negatively predicted by agreeableness; and negative visual hallucination was positively predicted by openness to experience. In the HIGH group, hallucinated voice was positively predicted by openness to experience and negatively predicted by agreeableness, and posthypnotic amnesia was positively predicted by extraversion and negatively predicted by openness to experience. Conclusion The associations between normal personality traits and hypnotic susceptibility items were weak and different in the two groups, which imply that managing mental or somatoform disorders might be through adjusting hypnotizability and mobilizing personality functions. PMID:28435270

Individual differences in behavioural plasticities.

PubMed

Stamps, Judy A

2016-05-01

Interest in individual differences in animal behavioural plasticities has surged in recent years, but research in this area has been hampered by semantic confusion as different investigators use the same terms (e.g. plasticity, flexibility, responsiveness) to refer to different phenomena. The first goal of this review is to suggest a framework for categorizing the many different types of behavioural plasticities, describe examples of each, and indicate why using reversibility as a criterion for categorizing behavioural plasticities is problematic. This framework is then used to address a number of timely questions about individual differences in behavioural plasticities. One set of questions concerns the experimental designs that can be used to study individual differences in various types of behavioural plasticities. Although within-individual designs are the default option for empirical studies of many types of behavioural plasticities, in some situations (e.g. when experience at an early age affects the behaviour expressed at subsequent ages), 'replicate individual' designs can provide useful insights into individual differences in behavioural plasticities. To date, researchers using within-individual and replicate individual designs have documented individual differences in all of the major categories of behavioural plasticities described herein. Another important question is whether and how different types of behavioural plasticities are related to one another. Currently there is empirical evidence that many behavioural plasticities [e.g. contextual plasticity, learning rates, IIV (intra-individual variability), endogenous plasticities, ontogenetic plasticities) can themselves vary as a function of experiences earlier in life, that is, many types of behavioural plasticity are themselves developmentally plastic. These findings support the assumption that differences among individuals in prior experiences may contribute to individual differences in behavioural plasticities observed at a given age. Several authors have predicted correlations across individuals between different types of behavioural plasticities, i.e. that some individuals will be generally more plastic than others. However, empirical support for most of these predictions, including indirect evidence from studies of relationships between personality traits and plasticities, is currently sparse and equivocal. The final section of this review suggests how an appreciation of the similarities and differences between different types of behavioural plasticities may help theoreticians formulate testable models to explain the evolution of individual differences in behavioural plasticities and the evolutionary and ecological consequences of individual differences in behavioural plasticities. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Constraints on decision making: implications from genetics, personality, and addiction.

PubMed

Baker, Travis E; Stockwell, Tim; Holroyd, Clay B

2013-09-01

An influential neurocomputational theory of the biological mechanisms of decision making, the "basal ganglia go/no-go model," holds that individual variability in decision making is determined by differences in the makeup of a striatal system for approach and avoidance learning. The model has been tested empirically with the probabilistic selection task (PST), which determines whether individuals learn better from positive or negative feedback. In accordance with the model, in the present study we examined whether an individual's ability to learn from positive and negative reinforcement can be predicted by genetic factors related to the midbrain dopamine system. We also asked whether psychiatric and personality factors related to substance dependence and dopamine affect PST performance. Although we found characteristics that predicted individual differences in approach versus avoidance learning, these observations were qualified by additional findings that appear inconsistent with the predictions of the go/no-go model. These results highlight a need for future research to validate the PST as a measure of basal ganglia reward learning.

Testing the predictive power of cognitive atypicalities in autistic children: evidence from a 3-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Pellicano, Elizabeth

2013-08-01

This follow-up study investigated the predictive power of early cognitive atypicalities. Specifically, it examined whether early individual differences in specific cognitive skills, including theory of mind, executive function, and central coherence, could uniquely account for variation in autistic children's behaviors-social communication, repetitive behaviors, and interests and insistence on sameness-at follow-up. Thirty-seven cognitively able children with an autism spectrum condition were assessed on tests tapping verbal and nonverbal ability, theory of mind (false-belief prediction), executive function (planning ability, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control), and central coherence (local processing) at intake and their behavioral functioning (social communication, repetitive behaviors and interests, insistence on sameness) 3 years later. Individual differences in early executive but not theory of mind skills predicted variation in children's social communication. Individual differences in children's early executive function also predicted the degree of repetitive behaviors and interests at follow-up. There were no predictive relationships between early central coherence and children's insistence on sameness. These findings challenge the notion that distinct cognitive atypicalities map on to specific behavioral features of autism. Instead, early variation in executive function plays a key role in helping to shape autistic children's emerging behaviors, including their social communication and repetitive behaviors and interests. © 2013 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Plant interactions alter the predictions of metabolic scaling theory.

PubMed

Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

2013-01-01

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of -4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms' internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than -4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive.

Individual differences in the relationship between ovarian hormones and emotional eating across the menstrual cycle: a role for personality?

PubMed

Racine, Sarah E; Keel, Pamela K; Burt, S Alexandra; Sisk, Cheryl L; Neale, Michael; Boker, Steven; Klump, Kelly L

2013-04-01

Within-person changes in estradiol and progesterone predict changes in binge eating tendencies across the menstrual cycle. However, all women have menstrual-cycle fluctuations in hormones, but few experience binge eating. Personality traits may be critical individual difference factors that influence who will engage in emotional eating in the presence of a vulnerable hormonal environment. Women (N=239) provided self-reports of emotional eating and saliva samples for hormone measurement for 45 consecutive days. Negative urgency and negative emotionality were measured once and were examined as moderators of hormone-emotional eating associations. Consistent with prior research, within-person changes in the interaction between estradiol and progesterone predicted emotional eating. Neither negative urgency nor negative emotionality interacted with changes in estradiol and progesterone to predict changes in emotional eating. Additional factors, other than the two personality traits examined, may account for individual differences in within-person associations between hormones and emotional eating. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studying Individual Differences in Predictability with Gamma Regression and Nonlinear Multilevel Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2010-01-01

Statistical prediction remains an important tool for decisions in a variety of disciplines. An equally important issue is identifying factors that contribute to more or less accurate predictions. The time series literature includes well developed methods for studying predictability and volatility over time. This article develops…

Exploring Cognitive Relations between Prediction in Language and Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patel, Aniruddh D.; Morgan, Emily

2017-01-01

The online processing of both music and language involves making predictions about upcoming material, but the relationship between prediction in these two domains is not well understood. Electrophysiological methods for studying individual differences in prediction in language processing have opened the door to new questions. Specifically, we ask…

Intra-Individual Variability of Physical Activity in Older Adults With and Without Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Watts, Amber; Walters, Ryan W; Hoffman, Lesa; Templin, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Physical activity shows promise for protection against cognitive decline in older adults with and without Alzheimer's disease (AD). To better understand barriers to adoption of physical activity in this population, a clear understanding of daily and weekly activity patterns is needed. Most accelerometry studies report average physical activity over an entire wear period without considering the potential importance of the variability of physical activity. This study evaluated individual differences in the amount and intra-individual variability of physical activity and determined whether these differences could be predicted by AD status, day of wear, age, gender, education, and cardiorespiratory capacity. Physical activity was measured via accelerometry (Actigraph GT3X+) over one week in 86 older adults with and without AD (n = 33 and n = 53, respectively). Mixed-effects location-scale models were estimated to evaluate and predict individual differences in the amount and intra-individual variability of physical activity. Results indicated that compared to controls, participants with AD averaged 21% less activity, but averaged non-significantly greater intra-individual variability. Women and men averaged similar amounts of physical activity, but women were significantly less variable. The amount of physical activity differed significantly across days of wear. Increased cardiorespiratory capacity was associated with greater average amounts of physical activity. Investigation of individual differences in the amount and intra-individual variability of physical activity provided insight into differences by AD status, days of monitor wear, gender, and cardiovascular capacity. All individuals regardless of AD status were equally consistent in their physical activity, which may have been due to a highly sedentary sample and/or the early disease stage of those participants with AD. These results highlight the value of considering individual differences in both the amount and intra-individual variability of physical activity.

Examining the Domain-Specificity of Metacognition Using Academic Domains and Task-Specific Individual Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Brianna M.; Berman, Ashleigh F.

2013-01-01

Metacognition refers to students' knowledge and regulation of cognition, as well as their accuracy in predicting their academic performance. This study addressed two major questions: 1) how do metacognitive knowledge, regulation and accuracy differ across domains?, and 2) how do students' individual differences relate to their reported…

Load Modulation of BOLD Response and Connectivity Predicts Working Memory Performance in Younger and Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, Irene E.; Preuschhof, Claudia; Li, Shu-Chen; Nyberg, Lars; Backman, Lars; Lindenberger, Ulman; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2011-01-01

Individual differences in working memory (WM) performance have rarely been related to individual differences in the functional responsivity of the WM brain network. By neglecting person-to-person variation, comparisons of network activity between younger and older adults using functional imaging techniques often confound differences in activity…

The grit effect: predicting retention in the military, the workplace, school and marriage

PubMed Central

Eskreis-Winkler, Lauren; Shulman, Elizabeth P.; Beal, Scott A.; Duckworth, Angela L.

2013-01-01

Remaining committed to goals is necessary (albeit not sufficient) to attaining them, but very little is known about domain-general individual differences that contribute to sustained goal commitment. The current investigation examines the association between grit, defined as passion and perseverance for long-term goals, other individual difference variables, and retention in four different contexts: the military, workplace sales, high school, and marriage. Grit predicted retention over and beyond established context-specific predictors of retention (e.g., intelligence, physical aptitude, Big Five personality traits, job tenure) and demographic variables in each setting. Grittier soldiers were more likely to complete an Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) selection course, grittier sales employees were more likely to keep their jobs, grittier students were more likely to graduate from high school, and grittier men were more likely to stay married. The relative predictive validity of grit compared to other traditional predictors of retention is examined in each of the four studies. These findings suggest that in addition to domain-specific influences, there may be domain-general individual differences which influence commitment to diverse life goals over time. PMID:24550863

The grit effect: predicting retention in the military, the workplace, school and marriage.

PubMed

Eskreis-Winkler, Lauren; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Beal, Scott A; Duckworth, Angela L

2014-01-01

Remaining committed to goals is necessary (albeit not sufficient) to attaining them, but very little is known about domain-general individual differences that contribute to sustained goal commitment. The current investigation examines the association between grit, defined as passion and perseverance for long-term goals, other individual difference variables, and retention in four different contexts: the military, workplace sales, high school, and marriage. Grit predicted retention over and beyond established context-specific predictors of retention (e.g., intelligence, physical aptitude, Big Five personality traits, job tenure) and demographic variables in each setting. Grittier soldiers were more likely to complete an Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) selection course, grittier sales employees were more likely to keep their jobs, grittier students were more likely to graduate from high school, and grittier men were more likely to stay married. The relative predictive validity of grit compared to other traditional predictors of retention is examined in each of the four studies. These findings suggest that in addition to domain-specific influences, there may be domain-general individual differences which influence commitment to diverse life goals over time.

Peer group socialization of homophobic attitudes and behavior during adolescence.

PubMed

Poteat, V Paul

2007-01-01

A social developmental framework was applied to test for the socialization of homophobic attitudes and behavior within adolescent peer groups (Grades 7-11; aged 12-17 years). Substantial similarity within and differences across groups were documented. Multilevel models identified a group socializing contextual effect, predicting homophobic attitudes and behavior of individuals within the group 8 months later, even after controlling for the predictive effect of individuals' own previously reported attitudes and behavior. Several group characteristics moderated the extent to which individuals' previously reported attitudes predicted later attitudes. Findings indicate the need to integrate the concurrent assessment of individual and social factors to inform the construction of more comprehensive models of how prejudiced attitudes and behaviors develop and are perpetuated.

Reported maternal tendencies predict the reward value of infant facial cuteness, but not cuteness detection

PubMed Central

Hahn, Amanda C.; DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.

2015-01-01

The factors that contribute to individual differences in the reward value of cute infant facial characteristics are poorly understood. Here we show that the effect of cuteness on a behavioural measure of the reward value of infant faces is greater among women reporting strong maternal tendencies. By contrast, maternal tendencies did not predict women's subjective ratings of the cuteness of these infant faces. These results show, for the first time, that the reward value of infant facial cuteness is greater among women who report being more interested in interacting with infants, implicating maternal tendencies in individual differences in the reward value of infant cuteness. Moreover, our results indicate that the relationship between maternal tendencies and the reward value of infant facial cuteness is not due to individual differences in women's ability to detect infant cuteness. This latter result suggests that individual differences in the reward value of infant cuteness are not simply a by-product of low-cost, functionless biases in the visual system. PMID:25740842

Predictability of Conversation Partners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

2011-08-01

Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

Individual Differences in Nonverbal Communication: Facial and Vocal Encoding Skills. Report from the Project on Studies of Instructional Programming for the Individual Student.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brideau, Linda B.; Allen, Vernon L.

This study tested the hypothesis that physical attractiveness is related to social skills in nonverbal communication. The socialization environment of persons is assumed to differ as a function of their physical attractiveness. It was predicted that physically attractive individuals would have greater opportunity than physically unattractive…

Human brain structure predicts individual differences in preconscious evaluation of facial dominance and trustworthiness

PubMed Central

Kanai, Ryota; Bahrami, Bahador; Rees, Geraint

2015-01-01

Social cues conveyed by the human face, such as eye gaze direction, are evaluated even before they are consciously perceived. While there is substantial individual variability in such evaluation, its neural basis is unknown. Here we asked whether individual differences in preconscious evaluation of social face traits were associated with local variability in brain structure. Adult human participants (n = 36) monocularly viewed faces varying in dominance and trustworthiness, which were suppressed from awareness by a dynamic noise pattern shown to the other eye. The time taken for faces to emerge from suppression and become visible (t2e) was used as a measure of potency in competing for visual awareness. Both dominant and untrustworthy faces resulted in slower t2e than neutral faces, with substantial individual variability in these effects. Individual differences in t2e were correlated with gray matter volume in right insula for dominant faces, and with gray matter volume in medial prefrontal cortex, right temporoparietal junction and bilateral fusiform face area for untrustworthy faces. Thus, individual differences in preconscious social processing can be predicted from local brain structure, and separable correlates for facial dominance and untrustworthiness suggest distinct mechanisms of preconscious processing. PMID:25193945

An exemplar-based approach to individualized parcellation reveals the need for sex specific functional networks

PubMed Central

Salehi, Mehraveh; Karbasi, Amin; Shen, Xilin; Scheinost, Dustin; Constable, R. Todd

2018-01-01

Recent work with functional connectivity data has led to significant progress in understanding the functional organization of the brain. While the majority of the literature has focused on group-level parcellation approaches, there is ample evidence that the brain varies in both structure and function across individuals. In this work, we introduce a parcellation technique that incorporates delineation of functional networks both at the individual- and group-level. The proposed technique deploys the notion of “submodularity” to jointly parcellate the cerebral cortex while establishing an inclusive correspondence between the individualized functional networks. Using this parcellation technique, we successfully established a cross-validated predictive model that predicts individuals’ sex, solely based on the parcellation schemes (i.e. the node-to-network assignment vectors). The sex prediction finding illustrates that individualized parcellation of functional networks can reveal subgroups in a population and suggests that the use of a global network parcellation may overlook fundamental differences in network organization. This is a particularly important point to consider in studies comparing patients versus controls or even patient subgroups. Network organization may differ between individuals and global configurations should not be assumed. This approach to the individualized study of functional organization in the brain has many implications for both neuroscience and clinical applications. PMID:28882628

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE.

PubMed

Marroquín, Brett; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

2015-02-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future ( likelihood estimation ) and how the future will feel ( affective forecasting ) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals ( n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls ( n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals' tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls-and on positive emotion less-independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression.

The Importance of Encoding-Related Neural Dynamics in the Prediction of Inter-Individual Differences in Verbal Working Memory Performance

PubMed Central

Majerus, Steve; Salmon, Eric; Attout, Lucie

2013-01-01

Studies of brain-behaviour interactions in the field of working memory (WM) have associated WM success with activation of a fronto-parietal network during the maintenance stage, and this mainly for visuo-spatial WM. Using an inter-individual differences approach, we demonstrate here the equal importance of neural dynamics during the encoding stage, and this in the context of verbal WM tasks which are characterized by encoding phases of long duration and sustained attentional demands. Participants encoded and maintained 5-word lists, half of them containing an unexpected word intended to disturb WM encoding and associated task-related attention processes. We observed that inter-individual differences in WM performance for lists containing disturbing stimuli were related to activation levels in a region previously associated with task-related attentional processing, the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS), and this during stimulus encoding but not maintenance; functional connectivity strength between the left IPS and lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) further predicted WM performance. This study highlights the critical role, during WM encoding, of neural substrates involved in task-related attentional processes for predicting inter-individual differences in verbal WM performance, and, more generally, provides support for attention-based models of WM. PMID:23874935

No Associations between Interindividual Differences in Sleep Parameters and Episodic Memory Consolidation.

PubMed

Ackermann, Sandra; Hartmann, Francina; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; de Quervain, Dominique J-F; Rasch, Björn

2015-06-01

Sleep and memory are stable and heritable traits that strongly differ between individuals. Sleep benefits memory consolidation, and the amount of slow wave sleep, sleep spindles, and rapid eye movement sleep have been repeatedly identified as reliable predictors for the amount of declarative and/or emotional memories retrieved after a consolidation period filled with sleep. These studies typically encompass small sample sizes, increasing the probability of overestimating the real association strength. In a large sample we tested whether individual differences in sleep are predictive for individual differences in memory for emotional and neutral pictures. Between-subject design. Cognitive testing took place at the University of Basel, Switzerland. Sleep was recorded at participants' homes, using portable electroencephalograph-recording devices. Nine hundred-twenty-nine healthy young participants (mean age 22.48 ± 3.60 y standard deviation). None. In striking contrast to our expectations as well as numerous previous findings, we did not find any significant correlations between sleep and memory consolidation for pictorial stimuli. Our results indicate that individual differences in sleep are much less predictive for pictorial memory processes than previously assumed and suggest that previous studies using small sample sizes might have overestimated the association strength between sleep stage duration and pictorial memory performance. Future studies need to determine whether intraindividual differences rather than interindividual differences in sleep stage duration might be more predictive for the consolidation of emotional and neutral pictures during sleep. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Living Large: Affect Amplification in Visual Perception Predicts Emotional Reactivity to Events in Daily Life

PubMed Central

Palder, Spencer L.; Ode, Scott; Liu, Tianwei; Robinson, Michael D.

2012-01-01

It was hypothesized that affect-amplifying individuals would be more reactive to affective events in daily life. Affect amplification was quantified in terms of overestimating the font size of positive and negative, relative to neutral, words in a basic perception task. Subsequently, the same (N = 70) individuals completed a daily diary protocol in which they reported on levels of daily stressors, provocations, and social support as well as six emotion-related outcomes for 14 consecutive days. Individual differences in affect amplification moderated reactivity to daily affective events in all such analyses. For example, daily stressor levels predicted cognitive failures at high, but not low, levels of affect amplification. Affect amplification, then, appears to have widespread utility in understanding individual differences in emotional reactivity. PMID:22989107

Traits, States, and Encoding Speed: Support for a Top-Down View of Neuroticism/State Relations

PubMed Central

Robinson, Michael D.; Clore, Gerald L.

2008-01-01

Recent theories suggest that trait neuroticism gains its pernicious power particularly among individuals less capable of making distinctions concerning present reality. Four studies, involving 272 undergraduates, sought to provide some basic, assessment-related support for such theories in the context of individual differences in choice reaction time, which reflect abilities to make distinctions at encoding. Studies 1–3 focused on somatic symptoms, whereas Study 4 focused on neurotic behaviors and negative affect. As predicted, neuroticism consistently interacted with categorization speed in predicting these dependent measures. Specifically, neuroticism/outcome relations were robust among individuals slow to make distinctions at encoding; by contrast, neuroticism did not predict the dependent measures among individuals fast to make distinctions. Such data reinforce suggestions that neuroticism is particularly pernicious among individuals less capable of making distinctions at encoding. PMID:17214593

Early Executive Function at Age Two Predicts Emergent Mathematics and Literacy at Age Five

PubMed Central

Mulder, Hanna; Verhagen, Josje; Van der Ven, Sanne H. G.; Slot, Pauline L.; Leseman, Paul P. M.

2017-01-01

Previous work has shown that individual differences in executive function (EF) are predictive of academic skills in preschoolers, kindergartners, and older children. Across studies, EF is a stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than literacy. However, research on EF in children below age three is scarce, and it is currently unknown whether EF, as assessed in toddlerhood, predicts emergent academic skills a few years later. This longitudinal study investigates whether early EF, assessed at two years, predicts (emergent) academic skills, at five years. It examines, furthermore, whether early EF is a significantly stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than of emergent literacy, as has been found in previous work on older children. A sample of 552 children was assessed on various EF and EF-precursor tasks at two years. At age five, these children performed several emergent mathematics and literacy tasks. Structural Equation Modeling was used to investigate the relationships between early EF and academic skills, modeled as latent factors. Results showed that early EF at age two was a significant and relatively strong predictor of both emergent mathematics and literacy at age five, after controlling for receptive vocabulary, parental education, and home language. Predictive relations were significantly stronger for mathematics than literacy, but only when a verbal short-term memory measure was left out as an indicator to the latent early EF construct. These findings show that individual differences in emergent academic skills just prior to entry into the formal education system can be traced back to individual differences in early EF in toddlerhood. In addition, these results highlight the importance of task selection when assessing early EF as a predictor of later outcomes, and call for further studies to elucidate the mechanisms through which individual differences in early EF and precursors to EF come about. PMID:29075209

Early Executive Function at Age Two Predicts Emergent Mathematics and Literacy at Age Five.

PubMed

Mulder, Hanna; Verhagen, Josje; Van der Ven, Sanne H G; Slot, Pauline L; Leseman, Paul P M

2017-01-01

Previous work has shown that individual differences in executive function (EF) are predictive of academic skills in preschoolers, kindergartners, and older children. Across studies, EF is a stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than literacy. However, research on EF in children below age three is scarce, and it is currently unknown whether EF, as assessed in toddlerhood, predicts emergent academic skills a few years later. This longitudinal study investigates whether early EF, assessed at two years, predicts (emergent) academic skills, at five years. It examines, furthermore, whether early EF is a significantly stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than of emergent literacy, as has been found in previous work on older children. A sample of 552 children was assessed on various EF and EF-precursor tasks at two years. At age five, these children performed several emergent mathematics and literacy tasks. Structural Equation Modeling was used to investigate the relationships between early EF and academic skills, modeled as latent factors. Results showed that early EF at age two was a significant and relatively strong predictor of both emergent mathematics and literacy at age five, after controlling for receptive vocabulary, parental education, and home language. Predictive relations were significantly stronger for mathematics than literacy, but only when a verbal short-term memory measure was left out as an indicator to the latent early EF construct. These findings show that individual differences in emergent academic skills just prior to entry into the formal education system can be traced back to individual differences in early EF in toddlerhood. In addition, these results highlight the importance of task selection when assessing early EF as a predictor of later outcomes, and call for further studies to elucidate the mechanisms through which individual differences in early EF and precursors to EF come about.

Frontostriatal anatomical connections predict age- and difficulty-related differences in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

van de Vijver, Irene; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; Harsay, Helga; Reneman, Liesbeth; Cavanagh, James F; Buitenweg, Jessika I V; Cohen, Michael X

2016-10-01

Reinforcement learning (RL) is supported by a network of striatal and frontal cortical structures that are connected through white-matter fiber bundles. With age, the integrity of these white-matter connections declines. The role of structural frontostriatal connectivity in individual and age-related differences in RL is unclear, although local white-matter density and diffusivity have been linked to individual differences in RL. Here we show that frontostriatal tract counts in young human adults (aged 18-28), as assessed noninvasively with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, positively predicted individual differences in RL when learning was difficult (70% valid feedback). In older adults (aged 63-87), in contrast, learning under both easy (90% valid feedback) and difficult conditions was predicted by tract counts in the same frontostriatal network. Furthermore, network-level analyses showed a double dissociation between the task-relevant networks in young and older adults, suggesting that older adults relied on different frontostriatal networks than young adults to obtain the same task performance. These results highlight the importance of successful information integration across striatal and frontal regions during RL, especially with variable outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does Self-Determination Predict the School Engagement of Four Different Motivation Types in Adolescence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raufelder, Diana; Regner, Nicola; Drury, Kate; Eid, Michael

2016-01-01

In order to enhance our understanding of inter-individual differences in scholastic motivation, this study examined if self-determination predicts the school engagement of four different motivation types (MT) in a large sample of adolescent students (N = 1088) from Brandenburg, Germany: (1) peer-dependent MT, (2) teacher-dependent MT, (3)…

Recent Advances in Understanding the Personality Underpinnings of Impulsive Behavior and their Role in Risk for Addictive Behaviors

PubMed Central

Birkley, Erica L.; Smith, Gregory T.

2013-01-01

Impulsivity has been a widely explored construct, particularly as a personality-based risk factor for addictive behaviors. The authors review evidence that (a) there is no single impulsivity trait; rather, there are at least five different personality traits that dispose individuals to rash or impulsive action; (b) the five traits predict different behaviors longitudinally; for example, the emotion-based urgency traits predict problematic involvement in several risky behaviors and sensation seeking instead predicts the frequency of engaging in such behaviors; (c) the traits can be measured in pre-adolescent children; (d) individual differences in the traits among preadolescent children predict the subsequent onset of, and increases in, risky behaviors including alcohol use; (e) the traits may operate by biasing the learning process, such that high-risk traits make high-risk learning more likely, thus leading to maladaptive behavior; (f) the emotion-based urgency traits may contribute to compulsive engagement in addictive behaviors; and (g) there is evidence that different interventions are appropriate for the different trait structures. PMID:22126707

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Miller, C. A.; Batson, C. D.; Wood, S. J.; Guined, J. R.; Cohen, H. S.; Buccello-Stout, R.; DeDios, Y. E.;

Social preferences influence the short-term exchange of social grooming among male bonobos.

PubMed

Surbeck, Martin; Hohmann, Gottfried

2015-03-01

The emotional mediation hypothesis proposes a mediating role of social bonds in the exchange of services. This model predicts that the form of short-term exchange of services depends on the relationship between the individuals involved. Here, we test this prediction in the exchange of grooming among males in a wild bonobo community for which close relatedness could be excluded. As bonobo males hardly engage in food sharing or agonistic support, grooming is mainly exchanged for grooming. While overall grooming, both given and received, correlates across dyads and within sessions, the form of grooming exchange within a given session differs according to dyadic association preferences. Individuals with a higher tendency to associate, ergo more familiar individuals, exhibit larger time differences and reduced reciprocation in consecutive grooming bouts than less familiar individuals. These results support the idea that emotional components are involved in the exchange of services between unrelated individuals.

fMRI Reactivity to High-Calorie Food Pictures Predicts Short- and Long-Term Outcome in a Weight-Loss Program

PubMed Central

Murdaugh, Donna L.; Cox, James E.; Cook, Edwin W.; Weller, Rosalyn E.

2011-01-01

Behavioral studies have suggested that food cues have stronger motivating effects in obese than in normal-weight individuals, which may be a risk factor underlying obesity. Previous cross-sectional neuroimaging studies have suggested that this difference is mediated by increased reactivity to food cues in parts of the reward system in obese individuals. To date, however, only a few prospective neuroimaging studies have been conducted to examine whether individual differences in brain activation elicited by food cues can predict differences in weight change. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate activation in reward-system as well as other brain regions in response to viewing high-calorie food vs. control pictures in 25 obese individuals before and after a 12-week psychosocial weight-loss treatment and at 9-mo follow-up. In those obese individuals who were least successful in losing weight during the treatment, we found greater pre-treatment activation to high-calorie food vs. control pictures in brain regions implicated in reward-system processes, such as the nucleus accumbens, anterior cingulate, and insula. We found similar correlations with weight loss in brain regions implicated by other studies in vision and attention, such as superior occipital cortex, inferior and superior parietal lobule, and prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, less successful weight maintenance at 9-mo follow-up was predicted by greater post-treatment activation in such brain regions as insula, ventral tegmental area, putamen, and fusiform gyrus. In summary, we found that greater activation in brain regions mediating motivational and attentional salience of food cues in obese individuals at the start of a weight-loss program was predictive of less success in the program and that such activation following the program predicted poorer weight control over a 9-mo follow-up period. PMID:22332246

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Werbeloff, Nomi; Rutigliano, Grazia; Oliver, Dominic; Davies, Cathy; Stahl, Daniel; McGuire, Philip; Osborn, David

2018-06-12

The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust. Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index. This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use. This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

Predictors of Suicidal Ideation in a Statewide Sample of Transgender Individuals.

PubMed

Rood, Brian A; Puckett, Julia A; Pantalone, David W; Bradford, Judith B

2015-09-01

Transgender individuals experience violence and discrimination, which, in addition to gender transitioning, are established correlates of psychological distress. In a statewide sample of 350 transgender adults, we investigated whether a history of violence and discrimination increased the odds of reporting lifetime suicidal ideation (SI) and whether differences in SI were predicted by gender transition status. Violence, discrimination, and transition status significantly predicted SI. Compared with individuals with no plans to transition, individuals with plans or who were living as their identified gender reported greater odds of lifetime SI. We discuss implications for SI disparities using Meyer's minority stress model.

Predicting future violence among individuals with psychopathy.

PubMed

Coid, Jeremy W; Ullrich, Simone; Kallis, Constantinos

2013-11-01

Structured risk assessment aims to help clinicians classify offenders according to likelihood of future violent and criminal behaviour. We investigated how confident clinicians can be using three commonly used instruments (HCR-20, VRAG, OGRS-II) in individuals with different diagnoses. Moderate to good predictive accuracy for future violence was achieved for released prisoners with no mental disorder, low to moderate for clinical syndromes and personality disorder, but accuracy was no better than chance for individuals with psychopathy. Comprehensive diagnostic assessment should precede an assessment of risk. Risk assessment instruments cannot be relied upon when managing public risk from individuals with psychopathy.

An exemplar-based approach to individualized parcellation reveals the need for sex specific functional networks.

PubMed

Salehi, Mehraveh; Karbasi, Amin; Shen, Xilin; Scheinost, Dustin; Constable, R Todd

2018-04-15

Recent work with functional connectivity data has led to significant progress in understanding the functional organization of the brain. While the majority of the literature has focused on group-level parcellation approaches, there is ample evidence that the brain varies in both structure and function across individuals. In this work, we introduce a parcellation technique that incorporates delineation of functional networks both at the individual- and group-level. The proposed technique deploys the notion of "submodularity" to jointly parcellate the cerebral cortex while establishing an inclusive correspondence between the individualized functional networks. Using this parcellation technique, we successfully established a cross-validated predictive model that predicts individuals' sex, solely based on the parcellation schemes (i.e. the node-to-network assignment vectors). The sex prediction finding illustrates that individualized parcellation of functional networks can reveal subgroups in a population and suggests that the use of a global network parcellation may overlook fundamental differences in network organization. This is a particularly important point to consider in studies comparing patients versus controls or even patient subgroups. Network organization may differ between individuals and global configurations should not be assumed. This approach to the individualized study of functional organization in the brain has many implications for both neuroscience and clinical applications. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual Differences in Childhood Sleep Problems Predict Later Cognitive Executive Control

PubMed Central

Friedman, Naomi P.; Corley, Robin P.; Hewitt, John K.; Wright, Kenneth P.

2009-01-01

Study Objective: To determine whether individual differences in developmental patterns of general sleep problems are associated with 3 executive function abilities—inhibiting, updating working memory, and task shifting—in late adolescence. Participants: 916 twins (465 female, 451 male) and parents from the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Study. Measurements and Results: Parents reported their children's sleep problems at ages 4 years, 5 y, 7 y, and 9–16 y based on a 7-item scale from the Child-Behavior Checklist; a subset of children (n = 568) completed laboratory assessments of executive functions at age 17. Latent variable growth curve analyses were used to model individual differences in longitudinal trajectories of childhood sleep problems. Sleep problems declined over time, with ~70% of children having ≥ 1 problem at age 4 and ~33% of children at age 16. However, significant individual differences in both the initial levels of problems (intercept) and changes across time (slope) were observed. When executive function latent variables were added to the model, the intercept did not significantly correlate with the later executive function latent variables; however, the slope variable significantly (P < 0.05) negatively correlated with inhibiting (r = −0.27) and updating (r = −0.21), but not shifting (r = −0.10) abilities. Further analyses suggested that the slope variable predicted the variance common to the 3 executive functions (r = −0.29). Conclusions: Early levels of sleep problems do not seem to have appreciable implications for later executive functioning. However, individuals whose sleep problems decrease more across time show better general executive control in late adolescence. Citation: Friedman NP; Corley RP; Hewitt JK; Wright KP. Individual differences in childhood sleep problems predict later cognitive executive control. SLEEP 2009;32(3):323-333. PMID:19294952

Differentiation of subspecies and sexes of Beringian Dunlins using morphometric measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gates, H. River; Yezerinac, Stephen; Powell, Abby N.; Tomkovich, Pavel S.; Valchuk, Olga P.; Lanctot, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Five subspecies of Dunlins (Calidris alpina) that breed in Beringia are potentially sympatric during the non-breeding season. Studying their ecology during this period requires techniques to distinguish individuals by subspecies. Our objectives were to determine (1) if five morphometric measures (body mass, culmen, head, tarsus, and wing chord) differed between sexes and among subspecies (C. a. actites, arcticola, kistchinski, pacifica, and sakhalina), and (2) if these differences were sufficient to allow for correct classification of individuals using equations derived from discriminant function analyses. We conducted analyses using morphometric data from 10 Dunlin populations breeding in northern Russia and Alaska, USA. Univariate tests revealed significant differences between sexes in most morphometric traits of all subspecies, and discriminant function equations predicted the sex of individuals with an accuracy of 83–100% for each subspecies. We provide equations to determine sex and subspecies of individuals in mixed subspecies groups, including the (1) Western Alaska group of arcticola and pacifica (known to stage together in western Alaska) and (2) East Asia group of arcticola, actites, kistchinski, and sakhalina (known to winter together in East Asia). Equations that predict the sex of individuals in mixed groups had classification accuracies between 75% and 87%, yielding reliable classification equations. We also provide equations that predict the subspecies of individuals with an accuracy of 22–96% for different mixed subspecies groups. When the sex of individuals can be predetermined, the accuracy of these equations is increased substantially. Investigators are cautioned to consider limitations due to age and feather wear when using these equations during the non-breeding season. These equations will allow determination of sexual and subspecies segregation in non-breeding areas, allowing implementation of taxonomic-specific conservation actions.

The management submodel of the Wind Erosion Prediction System

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a process-based, daily time-step, computer model that predicts soil erosion via simulation of the physical processes controlling wind erosion. WEPS is comprised of several individual modules (submodels) that reflect different sets of physical processes, ...

Distinguishing between learning and motivation in behavioral tests of the reinforcement sensitivity theory of personality.

PubMed

Smillie, Luke D; Dalgleish, Len I; Jackson, Chris J

2007-04-01

According to Gray's (1973) Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (RST), a Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) and a Behavioral Activation System (BAS) mediate effects of goal conflict and reward on behavior. BIS functioning has been linked with individual differences in trait anxiety and BAS functioning with individual differences in trait impulsivity. In this article, it is argued that behavioral outputs of the BIS and BAS can be distinguished in terms of learning and motivation processes and that these can be operationalized using the Signal Detection Theory measures of response-sensitivity and response-bias. In Experiment 1, two measures of BIS-reactivity predicted increased response-sensitivity under goal conflict, whereas one measure of BAS-reactivity predicted increased response-sensitivity under reward. In Experiment 2, two measures of BIS-reactivity predicted response-bias under goal conflict, whereas a measure of BAS-reactivity predicted motivation response-bias under reward. In both experiments, impulsivity measures did not predict criteria for BAS-reactivity as traditionally predicted by RST.

Resting EEG in Alpha and Beta Bands Predicts Individual Differences in Attentional Blink Magnitude

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacLean, Mary H.; Arnell, Karen M.; Cote, Kimberly A.

2012-01-01

Accuracy for a second target (T2) is reduced when it is presented within 500 ms of a first target (T1) in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP)--an attentional blink (AB). There are reliable individual differences in the magnitude of the AB. Recent evidence has shown that the attentional approach that an individual typically adopts during a…

Task Engagement, Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity, and Diagnostic Monitoring for Sustained Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Gerald; Warm, Joel S.; Reinerman-Jones, Lauren E.; Langheim, Lisa K.; Washburn, David A.; Tripp, Lloyd

2010-01-01

Loss of vigilance may lead to impaired performance in various applied settings including military operations, transportation, and industrial inspection. Individuals differ considerably in sustained attention, but individual differences in vigilance have proven to be hard to predict. The dependence of vigilance on workload factors is consistent…

Cognitive Style Predictors of Affect Change in Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isaacowitz, Derek M.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

2002-01-01

Cognitive styles are the lenses through which individuals habitually process information from their environment. In this study, we evaluated whether different cognitive style individual difference variables, such as explanatory style and dispositional optimism, could predict changes in affective state over time in community-dwelling older adults.…

Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Sleep-Dependent Memory Consolidation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenn, Kimberly M.; Hambrick, David Z.

2012-01-01

Decades of research have established that "online" cognitive processes, which operate during conscious encoding and retrieval of information, contribute substantially to individual differences in memory. Furthermore, it is widely accepted that "offline" processes during sleep also contribute to memory performance. However, the question of whether…

Predicting human chronically paralyzed muscle force: a comparison of three mathematical models.

PubMed

Frey Law, Laura A; Shields, Richard K

2006-03-01

Chronic spinal cord injury (SCI) induces detrimental musculoskeletal adaptations that adversely affect health status, ranging from muscle paralysis and skin ulcerations to osteoporosis. SCI rehabilitative efforts may increasingly focus on preserving the integrity of paralyzed extremities to maximize health quality using electrical stimulation for isometric training and/or functional activities. Subject-specific mathematical muscle models could prove valuable for predicting the forces necessary to achieve therapeutic loading conditions in individuals with paralyzed limbs. Although numerous muscle models are available, three modeling approaches were chosen that can accommodate a variety of stimulation input patterns. To our knowledge, no direct comparisons between models using paralyzed muscle have been reported. The three models include 1) a simple second-order linear model with three parameters and 2) two six-parameter nonlinear models (a second-order nonlinear model and a Hill-derived nonlinear model). Soleus muscle forces from four individuals with complete, chronic SCI were used to optimize each model's parameters (using an increasing and decreasing frequency ramp) and to assess the models' predictive accuracies for constant and variable (doublet) stimulation trains at 5, 10, and 20 Hz in each individual. Despite the large differences in modeling approaches, the mean predicted force errors differed only moderately (8-15% error; P=0.0042), suggesting physiological force can be adequately represented by multiple mathematical constructs. The two nonlinear models predicted specific force characteristics better than the linear model in nearly all stimulation conditions, with minimal differences between the two nonlinear models. Either nonlinear mathematical model can provide reasonable force estimates; individual application needs may dictate the preferred modeling strategy.

Psychological foundations of xenophilia: the role of major personality traits in predicting favorable attitudes toward cross-cultural contact and exploration.

PubMed

Stürmer, Stefan; Benbow, Alison E F; Siem, Birte; Barth, Markus; Bodansky, Alexander N; Lotz-Schmitt, Katharina

2013-11-01

Building on an integration of research findings on intergroup behavior from multiple fields of scientific inquiry (biological and cultural paleoanthropology, social psychology), as well as research on the HEXACO personality framework (e.g., Ashton & Lee, 2007), 3 independent studies (total N = 1,007) were conducted to introduce and test a fresh personality perspective on human xenophilia. Even though the studies focused on different criteria (Study 1: favorable attitudes toward contact with immigrants, Study 2: habitual cross-cultural exploration, Study 3: favorable attitudes toward contact with indigenous people) and employed different operationalizations of major personality traits (the HEXACO Personality Inventory-Revised [HEXACO-PI-R], the 10-item Big Five Inventory [BFI-10]) results were remarkably similar. First, path analyses confirmed that major personality traits were significant and direct predictors of xenophilia that were independent of the contributions of individual differences commonly predicting xenophobic reactions across studies. Second, and in line with the authors' more specific hypotheses, hierarchical regression analyses also corroborated that individual differences in the levels of endeavor-related personality traits (i.e., eXtraversion, Openness, and Conscientiousness) had a substantially greater power in predicting individual differences in xenophilia than individual differences in levels of altruism/cooperation-related traits (i.e., Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, and Agreeableness). The implications of these findings for more general psychological theorizing on human sociality are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Predicting Individual Differences in Placebo Analgesia: Contributions of Brain Activity during Anticipation and Pain Experience

PubMed Central

Wager, Tor D.; Atlas, Lauren Y.; Leotti, Lauren A.; Rilling, James K.

2012-01-01

Recent studies have identified brain correlates of placebo analgesia, but none have assessed how accurately patterns of brain activity can predict individual differences in placebo responses. We reanalyzed data from two fMRI studies of placebo analgesia (N = 47), using patterns of fMRI activity during the anticipation and experience of pain to predict new subjects’ scores on placebo analgesia and placebo-induced changes in pain processing. We used a cross-validated regression procedure, LASSO-PCR, which provided both unbiased estimates of predictive accuracy and interpretable maps of which regions are most important for prediction. Increased anticipatory activity in a frontoparietal network and decreases in a posterior insular/temporal network predicted placebo analgesia. Patterns of anticipatory activity across the cortex predicted a moderate amount of variance in the placebo response (~12% overall, ~40% for study 2 alone), which is substantial considering the multiple likely contributing factors. The most predictive regions were those associated with emotional appraisal, rather than cognitive control or pain processing. During pain, decreases in limbic and paralimbic regions most strongly predicted placebo analgesia. Responses within canonical pain-processing regions explained significant variance in placebo analgesia, but the pattern of effects was inconsistent with widespread decreases in nociceptive processing. Together, the findings suggest that engagement of emotional appraisal circuits drives individual variation in placebo analgesia, rather than early suppression of nociceptive processing. This approach provides a framework that will allow prediction accuracy to increase as new studies provide more precise information for future predictive models. PMID:21228154

The roles of deliberate practice and innate ability in developing expertise: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Kulasegaram, Kulamakan M; Grierson, Lawrence E M; Norman, Geoffrey R

2013-10-01

Medical education research focuses extensively on experience and deliberate practice (DP) as key factors in the development of expert performance. The research on DP minimises the role of individual ability in expert performance. This claim ignores a large body of research supporting the importance of innate individual cognitive differences. We review the relationship between DP and an innate individual ability, working memory (WM) capacity, to illustrate how both DP and individual ability predict expert performance. This narrative review examines the relationship between DP and WM in accounting for expert performance. Studies examining DP, WM and individual differences were identified through a targeted search. Although all studies support extensive DP as a factor in explaining expertise, much research suggests individual cognitive differences, such as WM capacity, predict expert performance after controlling for DP. The extent to which this occurs may be influenced by the nature of the task under study and the cognitive processes used by experts. The importance of WM capacity is greater for tasks that are non-routine or functionally complex. Clinical reasoning displays evidence of this task-dependent importance of individual ability. No single factor is both necessary and sufficient in explaining expertise, and individual abilities such as WM can be important. These individual abilities are likely to contribute to expert performance in clinical settings. Medical education research and practice should identify the individual differences in novices and experts that are important to clinical performance. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neuroticism as Distancing: Perceptual Sources of Evidence

PubMed Central

Liu, Tianwei; Ode, Scott; Moeller, Sara K.; Robinson, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Several theories and self-reported sources of data link individual differences in negative affectivity to avoidance motivation. Chronic avoidance motivation, through repeated practice, may result in a relatively cognitive distance-enhancing dynamic whereby events and stimuli are perceived as further away from the self, even when they are not threatening. Such predictions are novel, but follow from cybernetic theories of self-regulation. In five studies (total N = 463), relations of this type were investigated. Study 1 presented participants with phrases that were ambiguous and found that trait negative affect predicted phrase interpretation in a distance-enhancing temporal direction. Study 2 replicated this effect across a systematic manipulation of event valence. Study 3 asked individuals to estimate the size of words and found that individuals higher in neuroticism generally perceived words to be smaller than did individuals lower in neuroticism. In Study 4, people high (but not low) in neuroticism perceived words to be shrinking faster than they were growing. In Study 5, greater perceptual distancing, in a font size estimation task, predicted more adverse reactions to negative events in daily life. Although normative effects varied across studies, consistent support for a chronic distancing perspective of individual differences in negative affectivity was found. PMID:23527850

Predicting preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey.

PubMed

Wang, P; Fu, A Z; Wee, H L; Lee, J; Tai, E S; Thumboo, J; Luo, N

2013-09-01

To develop and test functions for predicting the preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey. This study was a secondary analysis of data collected in a population health survey in which respondents (n = 7,529) completed both the SF-36 and the SF-8 questionnaires. We examined seven ordinary least-square estimators for their performance in predicting SF-6D scores from the SF-8 at both the individual and the group levels. In general, all functions performed similarly well in predicting SF-6D scores, and the predictions at the group level were better than predictions at the individual level. At the individual level, 42.5-51.5% of prediction errors were smaller than the minimally important difference (MID) of the SF-6D scores, depending on the function specifications, while almost all prediction errors of the tested functions were smaller than the MID of SF-6D at the group level. At both individual and group levels, the tested functions predicted lower than actual scores at the higher end of the SF-6D scale. Our study developed functions to generate preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey, the first of its kind. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance and validity of the prediction functions.

An ensemble framework for identifying essential proteins.

PubMed

Zhang, Xue; Xiao, Wangxin; Acencio, Marcio Luis; Lemke, Ney; Wang, Xujing

2016-08-25

Many centrality measures have been proposed to mine and characterize the correlations between network topological properties and protein essentiality. However, most of them show limited prediction accuracy, and the number of common predicted essential proteins by different methods is very small. In this paper, an ensemble framework is proposed which integrates gene expression data and protein-protein interaction networks (PINs). It aims to improve the prediction accuracy of basic centrality measures. The idea behind this ensemble framework is that different protein-protein interactions (PPIs) may show different contributions to protein essentiality. Five standard centrality measures (degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and subgraph centrality) are integrated into the ensemble framework respectively. We evaluated the performance of the proposed ensemble framework using yeast PINs and gene expression data. The results show that it can considerably improve the prediction accuracy of the five centrality measures individually. It can also remarkably increase the number of common predicted essential proteins among those predicted by each centrality measure individually and enable each centrality measure to find more low-degree essential proteins. This paper demonstrates that it is valuable to differentiate the contributions of different PPIs for identifying essential proteins based on network topological characteristics. The proposed ensemble framework is a successful paradigm to this end.

Bayesian neural adjustment of inhibitory control predicts emergence of problem stimulant use.

PubMed

Harlé, Katia M; Stewart, Jennifer L; Zhang, Shunan; Tapert, Susan F; Yu, Angela J; Paulus, Martin P

2015-11-01

Bayesian ideal observer models quantify individuals' context- and experience-dependent beliefs and expectations about their environment, which provides a powerful approach (i) to link basic behavioural mechanisms to neural processing; and (ii) to generate clinical predictors for patient populations. Here, we focus on (ii) and determine whether individual differences in the neural representation of the need to stop in an inhibitory task can predict the development of problem use (i.e. abuse or dependence) in individuals experimenting with stimulants. One hundred and fifty-seven non-dependent occasional stimulant users, aged 18-24, completed a stop-signal task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. These individuals were prospectively followed for 3 years and evaluated for stimulant use and abuse/dependence symptoms. At follow-up, 38 occasional stimulant users met criteria for a stimulant use disorder (problem stimulant users), while 50 had discontinued use (desisted stimulant users). We found that those individuals who showed greater neural responses associated with Bayesian prediction errors, i.e. the difference between actual and expected need to stop on a given trial, in right medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, anterior insula, and thalamus were more likely to exhibit problem use 3 years later. Importantly, these computationally based neural predictors outperformed clinical measures and non-model based neural variables in predicting clinical status. In conclusion, young adults who show exaggerated brain processing underlying whether to 'stop' or to 'go' are more likely to develop stimulant abuse. Thus, Bayesian cognitive models provide both a computational explanation and potential predictive biomarkers of belief processing deficits in individuals at risk for stimulant addiction. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Neural predictors of individual differences in response to math tutoring in primary-grade school children

PubMed Central

Supekar, Kaustubh; Swigart, Anna G.; Tenison, Caitlin; Jolles, Dietsje D.; Rosenberg-Lee, Miriam; Fuchs, Lynn; Menon, Vinod

2013-01-01

Now, more than ever, the ability to acquire mathematical skills efficiently is critical for academic and professional success, yet little is known about the behavioral and neural mechanisms that drive some children to acquire these skills faster than others. Here we investigate the behavioral and neural predictors of individual differences in arithmetic skill acquisition in response to 8-wk of one-to-one math tutoring. Twenty-four children in grade 3 (ages 8–9 y), a critical period for acquisition of basic mathematical skills, underwent structural and resting-state functional MRI scans pretutoring. A significant shift in arithmetic problem-solving strategies from counting to fact retrieval was observed with tutoring. Notably, the speed and accuracy of arithmetic problem solving increased with tutoring, with some children improving significantly more than others. Next, we examined whether pretutoring behavioral and brain measures could predict individual differences in arithmetic performance improvements with tutoring. No behavioral measures, including intelligence quotient, working memory, or mathematical abilities, predicted performance improvements. In contrast, pretutoring hippocampal volume predicted performance improvements. Furthermore, pretutoring intrinsic functional connectivity of the hippocampus with dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortices and the basal ganglia also predicted performance improvements. Our findings provide evidence that individual differences in morphometry and connectivity of brain regions associated with learning and memory, and not regions typically involved in arithmetic processing, are strong predictors of responsiveness to math tutoring in children. More generally, our study suggests that quantitative measures of brain structure and intrinsic brain organization can provide a more sensitive marker of skill acquisition than behavioral measures. PMID:23630286

Neural predictors of individual differences in response to math tutoring in primary-grade school children.

PubMed

Supekar, Kaustubh; Swigart, Anna G; Tenison, Caitlin; Jolles, Dietsje D; Rosenberg-Lee, Miriam; Fuchs, Lynn; Menon, Vinod

2013-05-14

Now, more than ever, the ability to acquire mathematical skills efficiently is critical for academic and professional success, yet little is known about the behavioral and neural mechanisms that drive some children to acquire these skills faster than others. Here we investigate the behavioral and neural predictors of individual differences in arithmetic skill acquisition in response to 8-wk of one-to-one math tutoring. Twenty-four children in grade 3 (ages 8-9 y), a critical period for acquisition of basic mathematical skills, underwent structural and resting-state functional MRI scans pretutoring. A significant shift in arithmetic problem-solving strategies from counting to fact retrieval was observed with tutoring. Notably, the speed and accuracy of arithmetic problem solving increased with tutoring, with some children improving significantly more than others. Next, we examined whether pretutoring behavioral and brain measures could predict individual differences in arithmetic performance improvements with tutoring. No behavioral measures, including intelligence quotient, working memory, or mathematical abilities, predicted performance improvements. In contrast, pretutoring hippocampal volume predicted performance improvements. Furthermore, pretutoring intrinsic functional connectivity of the hippocampus with dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortices and the basal ganglia also predicted performance improvements. Our findings provide evidence that individual differences in morphometry and connectivity of brain regions associated with learning and memory, and not regions typically involved in arithmetic processing, are strong predictors of responsiveness to math tutoring in children. More generally, our study suggests that quantitative measures of brain structure and intrinsic brain organization can provide a more sensitive marker of skill acquisition than behavioral measures.

"A combined experimental and individual-differences investigation into mind wandering during a video lecture": Correction to Kane et al. (2017).

PubMed

2018-04-01

Reports an error in "A combined experimental and individual-differences investigation into mind wandering during a video lecture" by Michael J. Kane, Bridget A. Smeekens, Claudia C. von Bastian, John H. Lurquin, Nicholas P. Carruth and Akira Miyake ( Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , 2017[Nov], Vol 146[11], 1649-1674). In the article, the legends for Figure 2 and Figure 4 were erroneous. The correct figures are included in the errata. The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-48585-001.) A combined experimental-correlational study with a diverse sample (N = 182) from 2 research sites tested a set of 5 a priori hypotheses about mind wandering and learning, using a realistic video lecture on introductory statistics. Specifically, the study examined whether students' vulnerability to mind wandering during the lecture would predict learning from, and situational interest in, the video and also whether longhand note-taking would help reduce mind wandering, at least for some students. One half of the participants took notes during the video, and all were subsequently tested on lecture content without notes. Regression and mediation analyses indicated that (a) several individual-differences variables (e.g., pretest score, prior math interest, classroom media multitasking habits) uniquely predicted in-lecture mind wandering frequency; (b) although the note-taking manipulation did not reduce mind wandering at the group level, note-taking still reduced mind wandering for some individuals (i.e., those with lower prior knowledge and those who took notes of high quality and quantity); (c) mind wandering uniquely predicted both learning (posttest) and situational interest outcomes above and beyond all other individual-differences variables; (d) moreover, mind wandering significantly mediated the effects of several individual differences; and, finally, (e) not all types of mind wandering were problematic-in fact, off-task reflections about lecture-related topics positively predicted learning. These results, which were generally robust across the 2 sites, suggest that educationally focused cognitive research may benefit from considering attentional processes during learning as well as cognitive and noncognitive individual differences that affect attention and learning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Individual stress vulnerability is predicted by short-term memory and AMPA receptor subunit ratio in the hippocampus.

PubMed

Schmidt, Mathias V; Trümbach, Dietrich; Weber, Peter; Wagner, Klaus; Scharf, Sebastian H; Liebl, Claudia; Datson, Nicole; Namendorf, Christian; Gerlach, Tamara; Kühne, Claudia; Uhr, Manfred; Deussing, Jan M; Wurst, Wolfgang; Binder, Elisabeth B; Holsboer, Florian; Müller, Marianne B

2010-12-15

Increased vulnerability to aversive experiences is one of the main risk factors for stress-related psychiatric disorders as major depression. However, the molecular bases of vulnerability, on the one hand, and stress resilience, on the other hand, are still not understood. Increasing clinical and preclinical evidence suggests a central involvement of the glutamatergic system in the pathogenesis of major depression. Using a mouse paradigm, modeling increased stress vulnerability and depression-like symptoms in a genetically diverse outbred strain, and we tested the hypothesis that differences in AMPA receptor function may be linked to individual variations in stress vulnerability. Vulnerable and resilient animals differed significantly in their dorsal hippocampal AMPA receptor expression and AMPA receptor binding. Treatment with an AMPA receptor potentiator during the stress exposure prevented the lasting effects of chronic social stress exposure on physiological, neuroendocrine, and behavioral parameters. In addition, spatial short-term memory, an AMPA receptor-dependent behavior, was found to be predictive of individual stress vulnerability and response to AMPA potentiator treatment. Finally, we provide evidence that genetic variations in the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 are linked to the vulnerable phenotype. Therefore, we propose genetic variations in the AMPA receptor system to shape individual stress vulnerability. Those individual differences can be predicted by the assessment of short-term memory, thereby opening up the possibility for a specific treatment by enhancing AMPA receptor function.

Neural sensitivity to sex steroids predicts individual differences in aggression: implications for behavioural evolution.

PubMed

Rosvall, K A; Bergeon Burns, C M; Barske, J; Goodson, J L; Schlinger, B A; Sengelaub, D R; Ketterson, E D

2012-09-07

Testosterone (T) regulates many traits related to fitness, including aggression. However, individual variation in aggressiveness does not always relate to circulating T, suggesting that behavioural variation may be more closely related to neural sensitivity to steroids, though this issue remains unresolved. To assess the relative importance of circulating T and neural steroid sensitivity in predicting behaviour, we measured aggressiveness during staged intrusions in free-living male and female dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). We compared aggressiveness to plasma T levels and to the abundance of androgen receptor (AR), aromatase (AROM) and oestrogen receptor alpha (ORα) mRNA in behaviourally relevant brain areas (avian medial amygdala, hypothalamus and song control regions). We also asked whether patterns of covariation among behaviour and endocrine parameters differed in males and females, anticipating that circulating T may be a better predictor of behaviour in males than in females. We found that circulating T related to aggressiveness only in males, but that gene expression for ORα, AR and AROM covaried with individual differences in aggressiveness in both sexes. These findings are among the first to show that individual variation in neural gene expression for three major sex steroid-processing molecules predicts individual variation in aggressiveness in both sexes in nature. The results have broad implications for our understanding of the mechanisms by which aggressive behaviour may evolve.

The psychology of meta-ethics: exploring objectivism.

PubMed

Goodwin, Geoffrey P; Darley, John M

2008-03-01

How do lay individuals think about the objectivity of their ethical beliefs? Do they regard them as factual and objective, or as more subjective and opinion-based, and what might predict such differences? In three experiments, we set out a methodology for assessing the perceived objectivity of ethical beliefs, and use it to document several novel findings. Experiment 1 showed that individuals tend to regard ethical statements as clearly more objective than social conventions and tastes, and almost as objective as scientific facts. Yet, there was considerable variation in objectivism, both across different ethical statements, and across individuals. The extent to which individuals treat ethical beliefs as objective was predicted by the way they grounded their ethical systems. Groundings which emphasize the religious, pragmatic, and self-identity underpinnings of ethical belief each independently predicted greater ethical objectivity. Experiment 2 replicated and extended these findings with a refined measure of ethical objectivism. Experiment 3 demonstrated the robustness of the religious grounding of ethics, and differentiates it from mere religious belief and from political orientation. The results shed light on the nature of ethical belief, and have implications for the resolution of ethical disputes.

Improving climato-economic theorizing at the individual level.

PubMed

Fischer, Ronald

2013-10-01

Using representative data from 55 nations, I show that individual level wealth interacts with climate in predicting individual happiness but not postmaterialism values. I propose that more research is needed to identify (a) the specific mechanisms of how wealth buffers climatic demands at the individual level and (b) the neurocognitive and physiological reactions of individuals situated in different ecological niches.

Social-class differences in self-concept clarity and their implications for well-being

PubMed Central

Na, Jinkyung; Chan, Micaela Y.; Lodi-Smith, Jennifer; Park, Denise C.

2017-01-01

A consistent/stable sense of the self is more valued in middle-class contexts than working-class contexts; hence we predicted that middle-class individuals would have higher SCC than working-class individuals. It is further expected that SCC would be more important to one’s well-being among middle-class individuals than among working-class individuals. Supporting these predictions, SCC was positively associated with higher social-class. Moreover, although SCC was associated with higher life satisfaction and better mental health, the association significantly attenuated among working-class individuals. In addition, SCC was not associated with physical health and its association with physical health did not interact with social class. PMID:27114215

Predicting Word Reading and Comprehension with Executive Function and Speed Measures across Development: A Latent Variable Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christopher, Micaela E.; Miyake, Akira; Keenan, Janice M.; Pennington, Bruce; DeFries, John C.; Wadsworth, Sally J.; Willcutt, Erik; Olson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

The present study explored whether different executive control and speed measures (working memory, inhibition, processing speed, and naming speed) independently predict individual differences in word reading and reading comprehension. Although previous studies suggest these cognitive constructs are important for reading, the authors analyze the…

The Relationship Among Sexual Attitudes, Sexual Fantasy, and Religiosity

PubMed Central

Ahrold, Tierney K.; Farmer, Melissa; Trapnell, Paul D.; Meston, Cindy M.

2015-01-01

Recent research on the impact of religiosity on sexuality has highlighted the role of the individual, and suggests that the effects of religious group and sexual attitudes and fantasy may be mediated through individual differences in spirituality. The present study investigated the role of religion in an ethnically diverse young adult sample (N = 1413, 69% women) using religious group as well as several religiosity domains: spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, paranormal beliefs, and fundamentalism. Differences between religious groups in conservative sexual attitudes were statistically significant but small; as predicted, spirituality mediated these effects. In contrast to the weak effects of religious group, spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, and fundamentalism were strong predictors of women’s conservative sexual attitudes; for men, intrinsic religiosity predicted sexual attitude conservatism but spirituality predicted attitudinal liberalism. For women, both religious group and religiosity domains were significant predictors of frequency of sexual fantasies while, for men, only religiosity domains were significant predictors. These results indicate that individual differences in religiosity domains were better predictors of sexual attitudes and fantasy than religious group and that these associations are moderated by gender. PMID:20364304

Aircraft noise-induced awakenings are more reasonably predicted from relative than from absolute sound exposure levels.

PubMed

Fidell, Sanford; Tabachnick, Barbara; Mestre, Vincent; Fidell, Linda

2013-11-01

Assessment of aircraft noise-induced sleep disturbance is problematic for several reasons. Current assessment methods are based on sparse evidence and limited understandings; predictions of awakening prevalence rates based on indoor absolute sound exposure levels (SELs) fail to account for appreciable amounts of variance in dosage-response relationships and are not freely generalizable from airport to airport; and predicted awakening rates do not differ significantly from zero over a wide range of SELs. Even in conjunction with additional predictors, such as time of night and assumed individual differences in "sensitivity to awakening," nominally SEL-based predictions of awakening rates remain of limited utility and are easily misapplied and misinterpreted. Probabilities of awakening are more closely related to SELs scaled in units of standard deviates of local distributions of aircraft SELs, than to absolute sound levels. Self-selection of residential populations for tolerance of nighttime noise and habituation to airport noise environments offer more parsimonious and useful explanations for differences in awakening rates at disparate airports than assumed individual differences in sensitivity to awakening.

Music training, cognition, and personality.

PubMed

Corrigall, Kathleen A; Schellenberg, E Glenn; Misura, Nicole M

2013-01-01

Although most studies that examined associations between music training and cognitive abilities had correlational designs, the prevailing bias is that music training causes improvements in cognition. It is also possible, however, that high-functioning children are more likely than other children to take music lessons, and that they also differ in personality. We asked whether individual differences in cognition and personality predict who takes music lessons and for how long. The participants were 118 adults (Study 1) and 167 10- to 12-year-old children (Study 2). We collected demographic information and measured cognitive ability and the Big Five personality dimensions. As in previous research, cognitive ability was associated with musical involvement even when demographic variables were controlled statistically. Novel findings indicated that personality was associated with musical involvement when demographics and cognitive ability were held constant, and that openness-to-experience was the personality dimension with the best predictive power. These findings reveal that: (1) individual differences influence who takes music lessons and for how long, (2) personality variables are at least as good as cognitive variables at predicting music training, and (3) future correlational studies of links between music training and non-musical ability should account for individual differences in personality.

Spatial Topography of Individual-Specific Cortical Networks Predicts Human Cognition, Personality, and Emotion.

PubMed

Kong, Ru; Li, Jingwei; Orban, Csaba; Sabuncu, Mert R; Liu, Hesheng; Schaefer, Alexander; Sun, Nanbo; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Holmes, Avram J; Eickhoff, Simon B; Yeo, B T Thomas

2018-06-06

Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) offers the opportunity to delineate individual-specific brain networks. A major question is whether individual-specific network topography (i.e., location and spatial arrangement) is behaviorally relevant. Here, we propose a multi-session hierarchical Bayesian model (MS-HBM) for estimating individual-specific cortical networks and investigate whether individual-specific network topography can predict human behavior. The multiple layers of the MS-HBM explicitly differentiate intra-subject (within-subject) from inter-subject (between-subject) network variability. By ignoring intra-subject variability, previous network mappings might confuse intra-subject variability for inter-subject differences. Compared with other approaches, MS-HBM parcellations generalized better to new rs-fMRI and task-fMRI data from the same subjects. More specifically, MS-HBM parcellations estimated from a single rs-fMRI session (10 min) showed comparable generalizability as parcellations estimated by 2 state-of-the-art methods using 5 sessions (50 min). We also showed that behavioral phenotypes across cognition, personality, and emotion could be predicted by individual-specific network topography with modest accuracy, comparable to previous reports predicting phenotypes based on connectivity strength. Network topography estimated by MS-HBM was more effective for behavioral prediction than network size, as well as network topography estimated by other parcellation approaches. Thus, similar to connectivity strength, individual-specific network topography might also serve as a fingerprint of human behavior.

Strategic Adaptation to Task Characteristics, Incentives, and Individual Differences in Dual-Tasking

PubMed Central

Janssen, Christian P.; Brumby, Duncan P.

2015-01-01

We investigate how good people are at multitasking by comparing behavior to a prediction of the optimal strategy for dividing attention between two concurrent tasks. In our experiment, 24 participants had to interleave entering digits on a keyboard with controlling a randomly moving cursor with a joystick. The difficulty of the tracking task was systematically varied as a within-subjects factor. Participants were also exposed to different explicit reward functions that varied the relative importance of the tracking task relative to the typing task (between-subjects). Results demonstrate that these changes in task characteristics and monetary incentives, together with individual differences in typing ability, influenced how participants choose to interleave tasks. This change in strategy then affected their performance on each task. A computational cognitive model was used to predict performance for a wide set of alternative strategies for how participants might have possibly interleaved tasks. This allowed for predictions of optimal performance to be derived, given the constraints placed on performance by the task and cognition. A comparison of human behavior with the predicted optimal strategy shows that participants behaved near optimally. Our findings have implications for the design and evaluation of technology for multitasking situations, as consideration should be given to the characteristics of the task, but also to how different users might use technology depending on their individual characteristics and their priorities. PMID:26161851

Individual-Area Relationship Best Explains Goose Species Density in Wetlands

PubMed Central

Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Fred

2015-01-01

Explaining and predicting animal distributions is one of the fundamental objectives in ecology and conservation biology. Animal habitat selection can be regulated by top-down and bottom-up processes, and is mediated by species interactions. Species varying in body size respond differently to top-down and bottom-up determinants, and hence understanding these allometric responses to those determinants is important for conservation. In this study, using two differently sized goose species wintering in the Yangtze floodplain, we tested the predictions derived from three different hypotheses (individual-area relationship, food resource and disturbance hypothesis) to explain the spatial and temporal variation in densities of two goose species. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, we demonstrated that goose density was positive correlated with patch area size, suggesting that the individual area-relationship best predicts differences in goose densities. Moreover, the other predictions, related to food availability and disturbance, were not significant. Buffalo grazing probably facilitated greater white-fronted geese, as the number of buffalos was positively correlated to the density of this species. We concluded that patch area size is the most important factor determining the density of goose species in our study area. Patch area size is directly determined by water levels in the Yangtze floodplain, and hence modifying the hydrological regimes can enlarge the capacity of these wetlands for migratory birds. PMID:25996502

Moralized Rationality: Relying on Logic and Evidence in the Formation and Evaluation of Belief Can Be Seen as a Moral Issue.

PubMed

Ståhl, Tomas; Zaal, Maarten P; Skitka, Linda J

2016-01-01

In the present article we demonstrate stable individual differences in the extent to which a reliance on logic and evidence in the formation and evaluation of beliefs is perceived as a moral virtue, and a reliance on less rational processes is perceived as a vice. We refer to this individual difference variable as moralized rationality. Eight studies are reported in which an instrument to measure individual differences in moralized rationality is validated. Results show that the Moralized Rationality Scale (MRS) is internally consistent, and captures something distinct from the personal importance people attach to being rational (Studies 1-3). Furthermore, the MRS has high test-retest reliability (Study 4), is conceptually distinct from frequently used measures of individual differences in moral values, and it is negatively related to common beliefs that are not supported by scientific evidence (Study 5). We further demonstrate that the MRS predicts morally laden reactions, such as a desire for punishment, of people who rely on irrational (vs. rational) ways of forming and evaluating beliefs (Studies 6 and 7). Finally, we show that the MRS uniquely predicts motivation to contribute to a charity that works to prevent the spread of irrational beliefs (Study 8). We conclude that (1) there are stable individual differences in the extent to which people moralize a reliance on rationality in the formation and evaluation of beliefs, (2) that these individual differences do not reduce to the personal importance attached to rationality, and (3) that individual differences in moralized rationality have important motivational and interpersonal consequences.

Moralized Rationality: Relying on Logic and Evidence in the Formation and Evaluation of Belief Can Be Seen as a Moral Issue

PubMed Central

Skitka, Linda J.

2016-01-01

In the present article we demonstrate stable individual differences in the extent to which a reliance on logic and evidence in the formation and evaluation of beliefs is perceived as a moral virtue, and a reliance on less rational processes is perceived as a vice. We refer to this individual difference variable as moralized rationality. Eight studies are reported in which an instrument to measure individual differences in moralized rationality is validated. Results show that the Moralized Rationality Scale (MRS) is internally consistent, and captures something distinct from the personal importance people attach to being rational (Studies 1–3). Furthermore, the MRS has high test-retest reliability (Study 4), is conceptually distinct from frequently used measures of individual differences in moral values, and it is negatively related to common beliefs that are not supported by scientific evidence (Study 5). We further demonstrate that the MRS predicts morally laden reactions, such as a desire for punishment, of people who rely on irrational (vs. rational) ways of forming and evaluating beliefs (Studies 6 and 7). Finally, we show that the MRS uniquely predicts motivation to contribute to a charity that works to prevent the spread of irrational beliefs (Study 8). We conclude that (1) there are stable individual differences in the extent to which people moralize a reliance on rationality in the formation and evaluation of beliefs, (2) that these individual differences do not reduce to the personal importance attached to rationality, and (3) that individual differences in moralized rationality have important motivational and interpersonal consequences. PMID:27851777

Genetic algorithm based adaptive neural network ensemble and its application in predicting carbon flux

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xue, Y.; Liu, S.; Hu, Y.; Yang, J.; Chen, Q.

2007-01-01

To improve the accuracy in prediction, Genetic Algorithm based Adaptive Neural Network Ensemble (GA-ANNE) is presented. Intersections are allowed between different training sets based on the fuzzy clustering analysis, which ensures the diversity as well as the accuracy of individual Neural Networks (NNs). Moreover, to improve the accuracy of the adaptive weights of individual NNs, GA is used to optimize the cluster centers. Empirical results in predicting carbon flux of Duke Forest reveal that GA-ANNE can predict the carbon flux more accurately than Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), Bagging NN ensemble, and ANNE. ?? 2007 IEEE.

Curious eyes: individual differences in personality predict eye movement behavior in scene-viewing.

PubMed

Risko, Evan F; Anderson, Nicola C; Lanthier, Sophie; Kingstone, Alan

2012-01-01

Visual exploration is driven by two main factors - the stimuli in our environment, and our own individual interests and intentions. Research investigating these two aspects of attentional guidance has focused almost exclusively on factors common across individuals. The present study took a different tack, and examined the role played by individual differences in personality. Our findings reveal that trait curiosity is a robust and reliable predictor of an individual's eye movement behavior in scene-viewing. These findings demonstrate that who a person is relates to how they move their eyes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do the Big Five personality traits predict individual differences in the left cheek bias for emotion perception?

PubMed

Galea, Samantha; Lindell, Annukka K

2016-01-01

Like language, emotion is a lateralized function. Because the right hemisphere typically dominates emotion processing, people express stronger emotion on the left side of their face. This prompts a left cheek bias: we offer the left cheek to express emotion and rate left cheek portraits more emotionally expressive than right cheek portraits. Though the majority of the population show this left cheek bias (60-70%), individual differences exist but remain largely unexplained. Given that people with higher self-rated emotional expressivity show a stronger left cheek bias, personality variables associated with increased emotional expressivity and emotional intelligence, such as extraversion and openness, may help account for individual differences. The present study thus examined whether the Big Five traits predict left cheek preferences. Participants (M = 58, F = 116) completed the NEO-Five Factor Personality Inventory (NEO-FFI) [Costa, P. T. J., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). NEO PI-R professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources] and viewed pairs of left and right cheek images (half mirror-reversed); participants made forced-choice decisions, indicating which image in each pair looked happier. Hierarchical regression indicated that neither trait extraversion nor openness predicted left cheek selections, with NEO-FFI personality subscales accounting for negligible variance in preferences. As the Big Five traits have been discounted, exploration of other potential contributors to individual differences in the left cheek bias is clearly needed.

Testing an integrated behavioural and biomedical model of disability in N-of-1 studies with chronic pain.

PubMed

Quinn, Francis; Johnston, Marie; Johnston, Derek W

2013-01-01

Previous research has supported an integrated biomedical and behavioural model explaining activity limitations. However, further tests of this model are required at the within-person level, because while it proposes that the constructs are related within individuals, it has primarily been tested between individuals in large group studies. We aimed to test the integrated model at the within-person level. Six correlational N-of-1 studies in participants with arthritis, chronic pain and walking limitations were carried out. Daily measures of theoretical constructs were collected using a hand-held computer (PDA), the activity was assessed by self-report and accelerometer and the data were analysed using time-series analysis. The biomedical model was not supported as pain impairment did not predict activity, so the integrated model was supported partially. Impairment predicted intention to move around, while perceived behavioural control (PBC) and intention predicted activity. PBC did not predict activity limitation in the expected direction. The integrated model of disability was partially supported within individuals, especially the behavioural elements. However, results suggest that different elements of the model may drive activity (limitations) for different individuals. The integrated model provides a useful framework for understanding disability and suggests interventions, and the utility of N-of-1 methodology for testing theory is illustrated.

Not All Skilled Readers Have Cracked the Code: Individual Differences in Masked Form Priming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Sally; Lo, Steson

2012-01-01

This experiment investigated whether individual differences in written language proficiency among university students predict the early stages of lexical retrieval tapped by the masked form priming lexical decision task. To separate the contributions of sublexical facilitation and lexical competition to masked form priming, the effects of prime…

Individual Differences in Adolescents' Sympathetic and Parasympathetic Functioning Moderate Associations between Family Environment and Psychosocial Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diamond, Lisa M.; Fagundes, Christopher P.; Cribbet, Matthew R.

2012-01-01

The present study tested whether individual differences in autonomic nervous system functioning interact with environmental risk factors to predict adolescents' psychosocial functioning. The authors assessed skin conductance and respiratory sinus arrhythmia at rest and during laboratory stressors in 110 14-year-olds. Subsequently, adolescents and…

Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

2012-01-01

Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

Sensitivity to Speech Rhythm Explains Individual Differences in Reading Ability Independently of Phonological Awareness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holliman, Andrew J.; Wood, Clare; Sheehy, Kieron

2008-01-01

This study considered whether sensitivity to speech rhythm can predict concurrent variance in reading attainment after individual differences in age, vocabulary, and phonological awareness have been controlled. Five- to six-year-old English-speaking children completed a battery of phonological processing assessments and reading assessments, along…

Educational Outcomes for Children At-Risk: The Influence of Individual Differences in Children's Temperaments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Hendawi, Maha; Reed, Evelyn

2012-01-01

Individual differences in temperament can be protective or risk factors that may enhance or interfere with children's healthy development and educational success. This study examined the concurrent and predictive relationships between temperament, school adjustment, and academic achievement in children at-risk. Seventy-seven children at-risk, ages…

Multimedia Learning: Cognitive Individual Differences and Display Design Techniques Predict Transfer Learning with Multimedia Learning Modules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

In the wake of the information explosion and rapidly progressing technology [Mayer, R. E. (2001). "Multimedia learning". Cambridge: University Press] formulated a theory that focused on human cognition, rather than technology capacity and features. By measuring the effect of cognitive individual differences and display design manipulations on…

Does Culture Influence What and How We Think? Effects of Priming Individualism and Collectivism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oyserman, Daphna; Lee, Spike W. S.

2008-01-01

Do differences in individualism and collectivism influence values, self-concept content, relational assumptions, and cognitive style? On the one hand, the cross-national literature provides an impressively consistent picture of the predicted systematic differences; on the other hand, the nature of the evidence is inconclusive. Cross-national…

Thalamic functional connectivity predicts seizure laterality in individual TLE patients: application of a biomarker development strategy.

PubMed

Barron, Daniel S; Fox, Peter T; Pardoe, Heath; Lancaster, Jack; Price, Larry R; Blackmon, Karen; Berry, Kristen; Cavazos, Jose E; Kuzniecky, Ruben; Devinsky, Orrin; Thesen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Noninvasive markers of brain function could yield biomarkers in many neurological disorders. Disease models constrained by coordinate-based meta-analysis are likely to increase this yield. Here, we evaluate a thalamic model of temporal lobe epilepsy that we proposed in a coordinate-based meta-analysis and extended in a diffusion tractography study of an independent patient population. Specifically, we evaluated whether thalamic functional connectivity (resting-state fMRI-BOLD) with temporal lobe areas can predict seizure onset laterality, as established with intracranial EEG. Twenty-four lesional and non-lesional temporal lobe epilepsy patients were studied. No significant differences in functional connection strength in patient and control groups were observed with Mann-Whitney Tests (corrected for multiple comparisons). Notwithstanding the lack of group differences, individual patient difference scores (from control mean connection strength) successfully predicted seizure onset zone as shown in ROC curves: discriminant analysis (two-dimensional) predicted seizure onset zone with 85% sensitivity and 91% specificity; logistic regression (four-dimensional) achieved 86% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The strongest markers in both analyses were left thalamo-hippocampal and right thalamo-entorhinal cortex functional connection strength. Thus, this study shows that thalamic functional connections are sensitive and specific markers of seizure onset laterality in individual temporal lobe epilepsy patients. This study also advances an overall strategy for the programmatic development of neuroimaging biomarkers in clinical and genetic populations: a disease model informed by coordinate-based meta-analysis was used to anatomically constrain individual patient analyses.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Auditory working memory predicts individual differences in absolute pitch learning.

PubMed

Van Hedger, Stephen C; Heald, Shannon L M; Koch, Rachelle; Nusbaum, Howard C

2015-07-01

Absolute pitch (AP) is typically defined as the ability to label an isolated tone as a musical note in the absence of a reference tone. At first glance the acquisition of AP note categories seems like a perceptual learning task, since individuals must assign a category label to a stimulus based on a single perceptual dimension (pitch) while ignoring other perceptual dimensions (e.g., loudness, octave, instrument). AP, however, is rarely discussed in terms of domain-general perceptual learning mechanisms. This is because AP is typically assumed to depend on a critical period of development, in which early exposure to pitches and musical labels is thought to be necessary for the development of AP precluding the possibility of adult acquisition of AP. Despite this view of AP, several previous studies have found evidence that absolute pitch category learning is, to an extent, trainable in a post-critical period adult population, even if the performance typically achieved by this population is below the performance of a "true" AP possessor. The current studies attempt to understand the individual differences in learning to categorize notes using absolute pitch cues by testing a specific prediction regarding cognitive capacity related to categorization - to what extent does an individual's general auditory working memory capacity (WMC) predict the success of absolute pitch category acquisition. Since WMC has been shown to predict performance on a wide variety of other perceptual and category learning tasks, we predict that individuals with higher WMC should be better at learning absolute pitch note categories than individuals with lower WMC. Across two studies, we demonstrate that auditory WMC predicts the efficacy of learning absolute pitch note categories. These results suggest that a higher general auditory WMC might underlie the formation of absolute pitch categories for post-critical period adults. Implications for understanding the mechanisms that underlie the phenomenon of AP are also discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Smoking cessation treatment and outcomes patterns simulation: a new framework for evaluating the potential health and economic impact of smoking cessation interventions.

PubMed

Getsios, Denis; Marton, Jenő P; Revankar, Nikhil; Ward, Alexandra J; Willke, Richard J; Rublee, Dale; Ishak, K Jack; Xenakis, James G

2013-09-01

Most existing models of smoking cessation treatments have considered a single quit attempt when modelling long-term outcomes. To develop a model to simulate smokers over their lifetimes accounting for multiple quit attempts and relapses which will allow for prediction of the long-term health and economic impact of smoking cessation strategies. A discrete event simulation (DES) that models individuals' life course of smoking behaviours, attempts to quit, and the cumulative impact on health and economic outcomes was developed. Each individual is assigned one of the available strategies used to support each quit attempt; the outcome of each attempt, time to relapses if abstinence is achieved, and time between quit attempts is tracked. Based on each individual's smoking or abstinence patterns, the risk of developing diseases associated with smoking (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, myocardial infarction and stroke) is determined and the corresponding costs, changes to mortality, and quality of life assigned. Direct costs are assessed from the perspective of a comprehensive US healthcare payer ($US, 2012 values). Quit attempt strategies that can be evaluated in the current simulation include unassisted quit attempts, brief counselling, behavioural modification therapy, nicotine replacement therapy, bupropion, and varenicline, with the selection of strategies and time between quit attempts based on equations derived from survey data. Equations predicting the success of quit attempts as well as the short-term probability of relapse were derived from five varenicline clinical trials. Concordance between the five trials and predictions from the simulation on abstinence at 12 months was high, indicating that the equations predicting success and relapse in the first year following a quit attempt were reliable. Predictions allowing for only a single quit attempt versus unrestricted attempts demonstrate important differences, with the single quit attempt simulation predicting 19 % more smoking-related diseases and 10 % higher costs associated with smoking-related diseases. Differences are most prominent in predictions of the time that individuals abstain from smoking: 13.2 years on average over a lifetime allowing for multiple quit attempts, versus only 1.2 years with single quit attempts. Differences in abstinence time estimates become substantial only 5 years into the simulation. In the multiple quit attempt simulations, younger individuals survived longer, yet had lower lifetime smoking-related disease and total costs, while the opposite was true for those with high levels of nicotine dependence. By allowing for multiple quit attempts over the course of individuals' lives, the simulation can provide more reliable estimates on the health and economic impact of interventions designed to increase abstinence from smoking. Furthermore, the individual nature of the simulation allows for evaluation of outcomes in populations with different baseline profiles. DES provides a framework for comprehensive and appropriate predictions when applied to smoking cessation over smoker lifetimes.

Accurate prediction of personalized olfactory perception from large-scale chemoinformatic features.

PubMed

Li, Hongyang; Panwar, Bharat; Omenn, Gilbert S; Guan, Yuanfang

2018-02-01

The olfactory stimulus-percept problem has been studied for more than a century, yet it is still hard to precisely predict the odor given the large-scale chemoinformatic features of an odorant molecule. A major challenge is that the perceived qualities vary greatly among individuals due to different genetic and cultural backgrounds. Moreover, the combinatorial interactions between multiple odorant receptors and diverse molecules significantly complicate the olfaction prediction. Many attempts have been made to establish structure-odor relationships for intensity and pleasantness, but no models are available to predict the personalized multi-odor attributes of molecules. In this study, we describe our winning algorithm for predicting individual and population perceptual responses to various odorants in the DREAM Olfaction Prediction Challenge. We find that random forest model consisting of multiple decision trees is well suited to this prediction problem, given the large feature spaces and high variability of perceptual ratings among individuals. Integrating both population and individual perceptions into our model effectively reduces the influence of noise and outliers. By analyzing the importance of each chemical feature, we find that a small set of low- and nondegenerative features is sufficient for accurate prediction. Our random forest model successfully predicts personalized odor attributes of structurally diverse molecules. This model together with the top discriminative features has the potential to extend our understanding of olfactory perception mechanisms and provide an alternative for rational odorant design.

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

Socially Driven Consistent Behavioural Differences during Development in Common Ravens and Carrion Crows.

PubMed

Miller, Rachael; Laskowski, Kate L; Schiestl, Martina; Bugnyar, Thomas; Schwab, Christine

2016-01-01

Consistent individual differences in behaviour, or 'personality', are likely to be influenced by development, social context, and species ecology, though few comparative, longitudinal studies exist. Here, we investigated the role of development and social context on personality variation in two identically reared, social corvids: common ravens and carrion crows. We repeatedly presented subjects with a variety of novel food and objects, while alone and in a primarily sibling subgroup, from fledging to sub-adulthood. We predicted that consistent individual differences would emerge later in development, and that conspecific presence would facilitate behavioural similarities. In contrast to our predictions, we found that individuals of both species were highly inconsistent in their behavioural responses throughout the development period. In line with our predictions, though in the ravens only, conspecific presence promoted behavioural similarities as individuals were strongly shaped by their subgroup, and it is likely that these effects were driven by social context rather than relatedness. We discuss these findings in relation to developmental steps and the role of social relations in these species. Overall, our findings highlight that these two species are highly adaptable in their behaviour, and the ravens in particular are strongly influenced by their social environment, which may facilitate cooperation and social learning.

Socially Driven Consistent Behavioural Differences during Development in Common Ravens and Carrion Crows

PubMed Central

Miller, Rachael; Laskowski, Kate L.; Schiestl, Martina; Bugnyar, Thomas; Schwab, Christine

2016-01-01

Consistent individual differences in behaviour, or ‘personality’, are likely to be influenced by development, social context, and species ecology, though few comparative, longitudinal studies exist. Here, we investigated the role of development and social context on personality variation in two identically reared, social corvids: common ravens and carrion crows. We repeatedly presented subjects with a variety of novel food and objects, while alone and in a primarily sibling subgroup, from fledging to sub-adulthood. We predicted that consistent individual differences would emerge later in development, and that conspecific presence would facilitate behavioural similarities. In contrast to our predictions, we found that individuals of both species were highly inconsistent in their behavioural responses throughout the development period. In line with our predictions, though in the ravens only, conspecific presence promoted behavioural similarities as individuals were strongly shaped by their subgroup, and it is likely that these effects were driven by social context rather than relatedness. We discuss these findings in relation to developmental steps and the role of social relations in these species. Overall, our findings highlight that these two species are highly adaptable in their behaviour, and the ravens in particular are strongly influenced by their social environment, which may facilitate cooperation and social learning. PMID:26848954

Interaction times change evolutionary outcomes: Two-player matrix games.

PubMed

Křivan, Vlastimil; Cressman, Ross

2017-03-07

Two most influential models of evolutionary game theory are the Hawk-Dove and Prisoner's dilemma models. The Hawk-Dove model explains evolution of aggressiveness, predicting individuals should be aggressive when the cost of fighting is lower than its benefit. As the cost of aggressiveness increases and outweighs benefits, aggressiveness in the population should decrease. Similarly, the Prisoner's dilemma models evolution of cooperation. It predicts that individuals should never cooperate despite cooperation leading to a higher collective fitness than defection. The question is then what are the conditions under which cooperation evolves? These classic matrix games, which are based on pair-wise interactions between two opponents with player payoffs given in matrix form, do not consider the effect that conflict duration has on payoffs. However, interactions between different strategies often take different amounts of time. In this article, we develop a new approach to an old idea that opportunity costs lost while engaged in an interaction affect individual fitness. When applied to the Hawk-Dove and Prisoner's dilemma, our theory that incorporates general interaction times leads to qualitatively different predictions. In particular, not all individuals will behave as Hawks when fighting cost is lower than benefit, and cooperation will evolve in the Prisoner's dilemma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in predicting high-risk drinking among undergraduate students.

PubMed

Wilke, Dina J; Siebert, Darcy Clay; Delva, Jorge; Smith, Michael P; Howell, Richard L

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender differences in college students' high-risk drinking as measured by an estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC) based on gender, height, weight, self-reported number of drinks, and hours spent drinking. Using a developmental/contextual framework, high-risk drinking is conceptualized as a function of relevant individual characteristics, interpersonal factors, and contextual factors regularly mentioned in the college drinking literature. Individual characteristics include race, gender, and age; interpersonal characteristics include number of sexual partners and having experienced forced sexual contact. Finally, contextual factors include Greek membership, living off-campus, and perception of peer drinking behavior. This study is a secondary data analysis of 1,422 students at a large university in the Southeast. Data were gathered from a probability sample of students through a mail survey. A three-step hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed gender differences in the pathway for high-risk drinking. For men, high-risk drinking was predicted by a combination of individual characteristics and contextual factors. For women, interpersonal factors, along with individual characteristics and contextual factors, predicted high-risk drinking, highlighting the importance of understanding female sexual relationships and raising questions about women's risk-taking behavior. Implications for prevention and assessment are discussed.

Individual differences in physiological flexibility predict spontaneous avoidance.

PubMed

Aldao, Amelia; Dixon-Gordon, Katherine L; De Los Reyes, Andres

2016-08-01

People often regulate their emotions by resorting to avoidance, a putatively maladaptive strategy. Prior work suggests that increased psychopathology symptoms predict greater spontaneous utilisation of this strategy. Extending this work, we examined whether heightened resting cardiac vagal tone (which reflects a general ability to regulate emotions in line with contextual demands) predicts decreased spontaneous avoidance. In Study 1, greater resting vagal tone was associated with reduced spontaneous avoidance in response to disgust-eliciting pictures, beyond anxiety and depression symptoms and emotional reactivity. In Study 2, resting vagal tone interacted with anxiety and depression symptoms to predict spontaneous avoidance in response to disgust-eliciting film clips. The positive association between symptoms and spontaneous avoidance was more pronounced among participants with reduced resting vagal tone. Thus, increased resting vagal tone might protect against the use of avoidance. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing both subjective and biological processes when studying individual differences in emotion regulation.

Induced optimism as mental rehearsal to decrease depressive predictive certainty.

PubMed

Miranda, Regina; Weierich, Mariann; Khait, Valerie; Jurska, Justyna; Andersen, Susan M

2017-03-01

The present study examined whether practice in making optimistic future-event predictions would result in change in the hopelessness-related cognitions that characterize depression. Individuals (N = 170) with low, mild, and moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were randomly assigned to a condition in which they practiced making optimistic future-event predictions or to a control condition in which they viewed the same stimuli but practiced determining whether a given phrase contained an adjective. Overall, individuals in the induced optimism condition showed increases in optimistic predictions, relative to the control condition, as a result of practice, but only individuals with moderate-to-severe symptoms of depression who practiced making optimistic future-event predictions showed decreases in depressive predictive certainty, relative to the control condition. In addition, they showed gains in efficiency in making optimistic predictions over the practice blocks, as assessed by response time. There was no difference in depressed mood by practice condition. Mental rehearsal might be one way of changing the hopelessness-related cognitions that characterize depression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

PubMed

Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2014-01-01

Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2014-01-01

Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling. PMID:24632944

Comparing the validity of informant and self-reports of personality using laboratory indices of emotional responding as criterion variables.

PubMed

Lieberman, Lynne; Liu, Huiting; Huggins, Ashley A; Katz, Andrea C; Zvolensky, Michael J; Shankman, Stewart A

2016-09-01

Personality traits relate to risk for psychopathology and can inform predictions about treatment outcome. In an effort to obtain a comprehensive index of personality, informant reports of personality are sometimes obtained in addition to self-reports of personality. However, there is limited research comparing the validity of self- and informant reports of personality, particularly among those with internalizing psychopathology. This is important given that informants may provide an additional (and perhaps different) perspective on individuals' personality. The present study therefore compared how both reports of positive affectivity (PA) and negative affectivity (NA) relate to psychophysiological and subjective measures of emotional responding to positive and negative stimuli. Given that our sample (n = 117) included individuals with no history of psychopathology, as well as individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) and/or panic disorder (PD), we were also able to explore whether these internalizing diagnoses moderated the association between personality reports and measures of emotional responding. Informant-reported PA predicted physiological responses to positive stimuli (but not negative). Informant-reported NA predicted physiological responses to negative stimuli (but not positive). Self-reported personality did not predict physiological responding, but did predict subjectively measured emotional responding (NA for negative responding, PA for positive responding). Diagnoses of internalizing psychopathology (PD or MDD) did not moderate these associations. Results suggest self- and informant reports of personality may each provide valid indices of an individual's emotional response tendencies, but predict different aspects of those tendencies. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Gibbs, James P.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Fredy; Rousseau, Louis-Philippe

2016-01-01

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 106 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

Mid-infrared spectrometry of milk as a predictor of energy intake and efficiency in lactating dairy cows.

PubMed

McParland, S; Lewis, E; Kennedy, E; Moore, S G; McCarthy, B; O'Donovan, M; Butler, S T; Pryce, J E; Berry, D P

2014-09-01

Interest is increasing in the feed intake complex of individual dairy cows, both for management and animal breeding. However, energy intake data on an individual-cow basis are not routinely available. The objective of the present study was to quantify the ability of routinely undertaken mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy analysis of individual cow milk samples to predict individual cow energy intake and efficiency. Feed efficiency in the present study was described by residual feed intake (RFI), which is the difference between actual energy intake and energy used (e.g., milk production, maintenance, and body tissue anabolism) or supplied from body tissue mobilization. A total of 1,535 records for energy intake, RFI, and milk MIR spectral data were available from an Irish research herd across 36 different test days from 535 lactations on 378 cows. Partial least squares regression analyses were used to relate the milk MIR spectral data to either energy intake or efficiency. The coefficient of correlation (REX) of models to predict RFI across lactation ranged from 0.48 to 0.60 in an external validation data set; the predictive ability was, however, strongest (REX=0.65) in early lactation (<60 d in milk). The inclusion of milk yield as a predictor variable improved the accuracy of predicting energy intake across lactation (REX=0.70). The correlation between measured RFI and measured energy balance across lactation was 0.85, whereas the correlation between RFI and energy balance, both predicted from the MIR spectrum, was 0.65. Milk MIR spectral data are routinely generated for individual cows throughout lactation and, therefore, the prediction equations developed in the present study can be immediately (and retrospectively where MIR spectral data have been stored) applied to predict energy intake and efficiency to aid in management and breeding decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic determinants of freckle occurrence in the Spanish population: Towards ephelides prediction from human DNA samples.

PubMed

Hernando, Barbara; Ibañez, Maria Victoria; Deserio-Cuesta, Julio Alberto; Soria-Navarro, Raquel; Vilar-Sastre, Inca; Martinez-Cadenas, Conrado

2018-03-01

Prediction of human pigmentation traits, one of the most differentiable externally visible characteristics among individuals, from biological samples represents a useful tool in the field of forensic DNA phenotyping. In spite of freckling being a relatively common pigmentation characteristic in Europeans, little is known about the genetic basis of this largely genetically determined phenotype in southern European populations. In this work, we explored the predictive capacity of eight freckle and sunlight sensitivity-related genes in 458 individuals (266 non-freckled controls and 192 freckled cases) from Spain. Four loci were associated with freckling (MC1R, IRF4, ASIP and BNC2), and female sex was also found to be a predictive factor for having a freckling phenotype in our population. After identifying the most informative genetic variants responsible for human ephelides occurrence in our sample set, we developed a DNA-based freckle prediction model using a multivariate regression approach. Once developed, the capabilities of the prediction model were tested by a repeated 10-fold cross-validation approach. The proportion of correctly predicted individuals using the DNA-based freckle prediction model was 74.13%. The implementation of sex into the DNA-based freckle prediction model slightly improved the overall prediction accuracy by 2.19% (76.32%). Further evaluation of the newly-generated prediction model was performed by assessing the model's performance in a new cohort of 212 Spanish individuals, reaching a classification success rate of 74.61%. Validation of this prediction model may be carried out in larger populations, including samples from different European populations. Further research to validate and improve this newly-generated freckle prediction model will be needed before its forensic application. Together with DNA tests already validated for eye and hair colour prediction, this freckle prediction model may lead to a substantially more detailed physical description of unknown individuals from DNA found at the crime scene. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

No Associations between Interindividual Differences in Sleep Parameters and Episodic Memory Consolidation

PubMed Central

Ackermann, Sandra; Hartmann, Francina; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; de Quervain, Dominique J.F.; Rasch, Björn

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: Sleep and memory are stable and heritable traits that strongly differ between individuals. Sleep benefits memory consolidation, and the amount of slow wave sleep, sleep spindles, and rapid eye movement sleep have been repeatedly identified as reliable predictors for the amount of declarative and/or emotional memories retrieved after a consolidation period filled with sleep. These studies typically encompass small sample sizes, increasing the probability of overestimating the real association strength. In a large sample we tested whether individual differences in sleep are predictive for individual differences in memory for emotional and neutral pictures. Design: Between-subject design. Setting: Cognitive testing took place at the University of Basel, Switzerland. Sleep was recorded at participants' homes, using portable electroencephalograph-recording devices. Participants: Nine hundred-twenty-nine healthy young participants (mean age 22.48 ± 3.60 y standard deviation). Interventions: None. Measurements and results: In striking contrast to our expectations as well as numerous previous findings, we did not find any significant correlations between sleep and memory consolidation for pictorial stimuli. Conclusions: Our results indicate that individual differences in sleep are much less predictive for pictorial memory processes than previously assumed and suggest that previous studies using small sample sizes might have overestimated the association strength between sleep stage duration and pictorial memory performance. Future studies need to determine whether intraindividual differences rather than interindividual differences in sleep stage duration might be more predictive for the consolidation of emotional and neutral pictures during sleep. Citation: Ackermann S, Hartmann F, Papassotiropoulos A, de Quervain DJF, Rasch B. No associations between interindividual differences in sleep parameters and episodic memory consolidation. SLEEP 2015;38(6):951–959. PMID:25325488

Measuring Biological Age via Metabonomics: The Metabolic Age Score.

PubMed

Hertel, Johannes; Friedrich, Nele; Wittfeld, Katharina; Pietzner, Maik; Budde, Kathrin; Van der Auwera, Sandra; Lohmann, Tobias; Teumer, Alexander; Völzke, Henry; Nauck, Matthias; Grabe, Hans Jörgen

2016-02-05

Chronological age is one of the most important risk factors for adverse clinical outcome. Still, two individuals at the same chronological age could have different biological aging states, leading to different individual risk profiles. Capturing this individual variance could constitute an even more powerful predictor enhancing prediction in age-related morbidity. Applying a nonlinear regression technique, we constructed a metabonomic measurement for biological age, the metabolic age score, based on urine data measured via (1)H NMR spectroscopy. We validated the score in two large independent population-based samples by revealing its significant associations with chronological age and age-related clinical phenotypes as well as its independent predictive value for survival over approximately 13 years of follow-up. Furthermore, the metabolic age score was prognostic for weight loss in a sample of individuals who underwent bariatric surgery. We conclude that the metabolic age score is an informative measurement of biological age with possible applications in personalized medicine.

Limited evidence of individual differences in holistic processing in different versions of the part-whole paradigm.

PubMed

Sunday, Mackenzie A; Richler, Jennifer J; Gauthier, Isabel

2017-07-01

The part-whole paradigm was one of the first measures of holistic processing and it has been used to address several topics in face recognition, including its development, other-race effects, and more recently, whether holistic processing is correlated with face recognition ability. However the task was not designed to measure individual differences and it has produced measurements with low reliability. We created a new holistic processing test designed to measure individual differences based on the part-whole paradigm, the Vanderbilt Part Whole Test (VPWT). Measurements in the part and whole conditions were reliable, but, surprisingly, there was no evidence for reliable individual differences in the part-whole index (how well a person can take advantage of a face part presented within a whole face context compared to the part presented without a whole face) because part and whole conditions were strongly correlated. The same result was obtained in a version of the original part-whole task that was modified to increase its reliability. Controlling for object recognition ability, we found that variance in the whole condition does not predict any additional variance in face recognition over what is already predicted by performance in the part condition.

The effect of individual differences and manipulated life expectancies on the willingness to engage in sexual coercion.

PubMed

Dunkel, Curtis S; Mathes, Eugene

2011-12-16

The role of the individual difference variables of mate value, short-term and long-term mating preferences, and life history strategy along with the manipulated variable of life expectancy were used to predict differences in the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short-term preferences and long-term preferences were correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at all life expectancies. Life history strategy was correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at only the shortest and longest life expectancies. Most importantly short-term and long-term mating preferences interacted with life expectancy to predict the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short life expectancies increased willingness in individuals with high short-term and low long-term preferences. The results are discussed in terms of the varying theories of sexual coercion with emphasis put on a life history approach.

Pre-trauma individual differences in extinction learning predict posttraumatic stress.

PubMed

Lommen, Miriam J J; Engelhard, Iris M; Sijbrandij, Marit; van den Hout, Marcel A; Hermans, Dirk

2013-02-01

In the aftermath of a traumatic event, many people suffer from psychological distress, but only a minority develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pre-trauma individual differences in fear conditioning, most notably reduced extinction learning, have been proposed as playing an important role in the etiology of PTSD. However, prospective data are lacking. In this study, we prospectively tested whether reduced extinction was a predictor for later posttraumatic stress. Dutch soldiers (N = 249) were administered a conditioning task before their four-month deployment to Afghanistan to asses individual differences in extinction learning. After returning home, posttraumatic stress was measured. Results showed that reduced extinction learning before deployment predicted subsequent PTSD symptom severity, over and beyond degree of pre-deployment stress symptoms, neuroticism, and exposure to stressors on deployment. The findings suggest that reduced extinction learning may play a role in the development of PTSD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting future learning from baseline network architecture.

PubMed

Mattar, Marcelo G; Wymbs, Nicholas F; Bock, Andrew S; Aguirre, Geoffrey K; Grafton, Scott T; Bassett, Danielle S

2018-05-15

Human behavior and cognition result from a complex pattern of interactions between brain regions. The flexible reconfiguration of these patterns enables behavioral adaptation, such as the acquisition of a new motor skill. Yet, the degree to which these reconfigurations depend on the brain's baseline sensorimotor integration is far from understood. Here, we asked whether spontaneous fluctuations in sensorimotor networks at baseline were predictive of individual differences in future learning. We analyzed functional MRI data from 19 participants prior to six weeks of training on a new motor skill. We found that visual-motor connectivity was inversely related to learning rate: sensorimotor autonomy at baseline corresponded to faster learning in the future. Using three additional scans, we found that visual-motor connectivity at baseline is a relatively stable individual trait. These results suggest that individual differences in motor skill learning can be predicted from sensorimotor autonomy at baseline prior to task execution. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the self-serving function of social anxiety: shyness as a self-handicapping strategy.

PubMed

Snyder, C R; Smith, T W; Augelli, R W; Ingram, R E

1985-04-01

We tested the hypothesis that socially anxious or shy individuals use their anxiety symptoms as a strategy to control attributions made about their performances in social-evaluative settings (i.e., self-handicapping strategies). Specifically, we predicted that trait-socially anxious or shy persons would report more symptoms of social anxiety in an evaluative setting in which anxiety or shyness could serve as an excuse for poor performance than would individuals in (a) an evaluative setting in which shyness was precluded as an excuse or (b) a nonevaluative setting. Furthermore, we predicted that this self-protective pattern of symptom reporting would not occur for individuals who were not trait-socially anxious because these persons would not commonly use such symptoms as a self-handicapping strategy. Results supported these predictions for male subjects, but not for female subjects. Sex differences in the strategic use of shyness are discussed in relation to other research on sex differences in the etiology and correlates of social anxiety.

Age-Related and Individual Differences in the Use of Prediction during Language Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Federmeier, Kara D.; Kutas, Marta; Schul, Rina

2010-01-01

During sentence comprehension, older adults are less likely than younger adults to predict features of likely upcoming words. A pair of experiments assessed whether such differences would extend to tasks with reduced working memory demands and time pressures. In Experiment 1, event-related brain potentials were measured as younger and older adults…

Prediction during Language Processing Is a Piece of Cake--But Only for Skilled Producers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mani, Nivedita; Huettig, Falk

2012-01-01

Are there individual differences in children's prediction of upcoming linguistic input and what do these differences reflect? Using a variant of the preferential looking paradigm (Golinkoff, Hirsh-Pasek, Cauley, & Gordon, 1987), we found that, upon hearing a sentence like, "The boy eats a big cake," 2-year-olds fixate edible objects…

Insights from triangulation of two purchase choice elicitation methods to predict social decision making in healthcare.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn R; Scuffham, Paul A

2012-03-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) and the Juster scale are accepted methods for the prediction of individual purchase probabilities. Nevertheless, these methods have seldom been applied to a social decision-making context. To gain an overview of social decisions for a decision-making population through data triangulation, these two methods were used to understand purchase probability in a social decision-making context. We report an exploratory social decision-making study of pharmaceutical subsidy in Australia. A DCE and selected Juster scale profiles were presented to current and past members of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and its Economic Subcommittee. Across 66 observations derived from 11 respondents for 6 different pharmaceutical profiles, there was a small overall median difference of 0.024 in the predicted probability of public subsidy (p = 0.003), with the Juster scale predicting the higher likelihood. While consistency was observed at the extremes of the probability scale, the funding probability differed over the mid-range of profiles. There was larger variability in the DCE than Juster predictions within each individual respondent, suggesting the DCE is better able to discriminate between profiles. However, large variation was observed between individuals in the Juster scale but not DCE predictions. It is important to use multiple methods to obtain a complete picture of the probability of purchase or public subsidy in a social decision-making context until further research can elaborate on our findings. This exploratory analysis supports the suggestion that the mixed logit model, which was used for the DCE analysis, may fail to adequately account for preference heterogeneity in some contexts.

An Investigation of Individual Variability in Brain Activity During Episodic Encoding and Retrieval

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

variability in mnemonic strategy use is, at least in part, related to the extensive variability observed in brain activity patterns. While a number of...1 AN INVESTIGATION OF INDIVIDUAL VARIABILITY IN BRAIN ACTIVITY DURING EPISODIC ENCODING AND RETRIEVAL C.L. Donovan*, and M.B. Miller Department of...strategy measures for predicting differences in brain activity patterns during a learning and memory task and to compare their predictive value to other

Teachers' Grade Assignment and the Predictive Validity of Criterion-Referenced Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thorsen, Cecilia; Cliffordson, Christina

2012-01-01

Research has found that grades are the most valid instruments for predicting educational success. Why grades have better predictive validity than, for example, standardized tests is not yet fully understood. One possible explanation is that grades reflect not only subject-specific knowledge and skills but also individual differences in other…

Analysis of algorithms for predicting canopy fuel

Treesearch

Katharine L. Gray; Elizabeth Reinhardt

2003-01-01

We compared observed canopy fuel characteristics with those predicted by existing biomass algorithms. We specifically examined the accuracy of the biomass equations developed by Brown (1978. We used destructively sampled data obtained at 5 different study areas. We compared predicted and observed quantities of foliage and crown biomass for individual trees in our study...

Are Some Negotiators Better Than Others? Individual Differences in Bargaining Outcomes

PubMed Central

Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Curhan, Jared R.; Eisenkraft, Noah; Shirako, Aiwa; Baccaro, Lucio

2008-01-01

The authors address the long-standing mystery of stable individual differences in negotiation performance, on which intuition and conventional wisdom have clashed with inconsistent empirical findings. The present study used the Social Relations Model to examine individual differences directly via consistency in performance across multiple negotiations and to disentangle the roles of both parties within these inherently dyadic interactions. Individual differences explained a substantial 46% of objective performance and 19% of subjective performance in a mixed-motive bargaining exercise. Previous work may have understated the influence of individual differences because conventional research designs require specific traits to be identified and measured. Exploratory analyses of a battery of traits revealed few reliable associations with consistent individual differences in objective performance—except for positive beliefs about negotiation, positive affect, and concern for one's outcome, each of which predicted better performance. Findings suggest that the field has large untapped potential to explain substantial individual differences. Limitations, areas for future research, and practical implications are discussed. PMID:21720453

Social-class differences in self-concept clarity and their implications for well-being.

PubMed

Na, Jinkyung; Chan, Micaela Y; Lodi-Smith, Jennifer; Park, Denise C

2018-06-01

A consistent/stable sense of the self is more valued in middle-class contexts than working-class contexts; hence, we predicted that middle-class individuals would have higher self-concept clarity than working-class individuals. It is further expected that self-concept clarity would be more important to one's well-being among middle-class individuals than among working-class individuals. Supporting these predictions, self-concept clarity was positively associated with higher social class. Moreover, although self-concept clarity was associated with higher life satisfaction and better mental health, the association significantly attenuated among working-class individuals. In addition, self-concept clarity was not associated with physical health and its association with physical health did not interact with social class.

The impact of suicidal rock music lyrics on youth: an investigation of individual differences.

PubMed

Peterson, Rebecca J; Safer, Martin A; Jobes, David A

2008-01-01

This study attempted to predict reactions after listening to music with lyrics about suicide. One hundred and twenty-six volunteers completed self-reports of personality and mood, and then listened to the music. Afterwards, they completed projective stories, self-reports of moods and reactions, and a memory test for the lyrics. Low openness to experience, and to a lesser extent, high neuroticism and low self-esteem predicted higher levels of suicide-related content in projective story-writing, as did knowing a suicide victim. Both the personality measures and post-listening mood predicted remembering too many nihilistic lyrics. Surprisingly, 68% of participants wrote at least one projective story with altruistic content. Individual differences were modestly associated with suicidal thoughts after listening to the music.

Assessing Soldier Individual Differences to Enable Tailored Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

upon effective and efficient training. However, there is ample evidence that learning-related individual differences exist ( Thorndike , 1985; Jensen...in both civilian and military settings (Schmidt, Hunter, & Outerbridge, 1986; Thorndike , 1985). Prior knowledge or knowledge of facts and...predictive power ( Thorndike , 1985; Jensen, 1998). Further, there is a good deal of evidence that general mental ability impacts performance largely

Measuring Noncommissioned Officer Knowledge and Experience to Enable Tailored Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

both that learning related individual differences exist (Jensen, 1998; Thorndike , 1985) and that these individual differences interact with learning...robustly predictive of broad psychological constructs (Goska & Ackerman, 1996; Gottfredson, 1998; Jensen, 1998; Thorndike , 1985). However, general...Aptitude theory: yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Educational Psychologist, 27 (1), 5-32. Thorndike , R. L. (1985). The central role of general

Differences in Computed Individual-Tree Volumes Caused by Differences in Field Measurements

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2008-01-01

Individual-tree volumes are primarily predicted using volume equations that rely on measured tree attributes. In the northeastern United States, the Forest Inventory and Analysis program determines tree volume using dbh, bole height, proportion of cull, and species information. These measurements are subject to variability due to a host of factors. The sensitivity of...

Predicting individual contrast sensitivity functions from acuity and letter contrast sensitivity measurements

PubMed Central

Thurman, Steven M.; Davey, Pinakin Gunvant; McCray, Kaydee Lynn; Paronian, Violeta; Seitz, Aaron R.

2016-01-01

Contrast sensitivity (CS) is widely used as a measure of visual function in both basic research and clinical evaluation. There is conflicting evidence on the extent to which measuring the full contrast sensitivity function (CSF) offers more functionally relevant information than a single measurement from an optotype CS test, such as the Pelli–Robson chart. Here we examine the relationship between functional CSF parameters and other measures of visual function, and establish a framework for predicting individual CSFs with effectively a zero-parameter model that shifts a standard-shaped template CSF horizontally and vertically according to independent measurements of high contrast acuity and letter CS, respectively. This method was evaluated for three different CSF tests: a chart test (CSV-1000), a computerized sine-wave test (M&S Sine Test), and a recently developed adaptive test (quick CSF). Subjects were 43 individuals with healthy vision or impairment too mild to be considered low vision (acuity range of −0.3 to 0.34 logMAR). While each test demands a slightly different normative template, results show that individual subject CSFs can be predicted with roughly the same precision as test–retest repeatability, confirming that individuals predominantly differ in terms of peak CS and peak spatial frequency. In fact, these parameters were sufficiently related to empirical measurements of acuity and letter CS to permit accurate estimation of the entire CSF of any individual with a deterministic model (zero free parameters). These results demonstrate that in many cases, measuring the full CSF may provide little additional information beyond letter acuity and contrast sensitivity. PMID:28006065

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

From approach to inhibition: the influence of power on responses to poor performers.

PubMed

Ferguson, Amanda J; Ormiston, Margaret E; Moon, Henry

2010-03-01

This article examines how relative differences in power affect responses to poor performers in organizations. We predicted that higher power individuals would engage in approach-related behaviors, whereas lower power individuals would be inhibited when responding to poor performers. Results from a scenario study and a field study generally supported this prediction, indicating that power was positively related to training or confronting a poor performer and negatively related to compensating for or rejecting a poor performer. A second scenario study investigated the effect of the interaction of power and emotion on individual responses to poor performers. Results showed that the type of emotion expressed moderated the effect of power on inhibition-related responses. We discuss implications for managing poor performers with relative power differences. 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Neuroticism as distancing: perceptual sources of evidence.

PubMed

Liu, Tianwei; Ode, Scott; Moeller, Sara K; Robinson, Michael D

2013-05-01

Several theories and self-reported sources of data link individual differences in negative affectivity to avoidance motivation. Chronic avoidance motivation, through repeated practice, may result in a relatively cognitive distance-enhancing dynamic whereby events and stimuli are perceived as further away from the self, even when they are not threatening. Such predictions are novel but follow from cybernetic theories of self-regulation. In 5 studies (total N = 463), relations of this type were investigated. Study 1 presented participants with phrases that were ambiguous and found that trait negative affect predicted phrase interpretation in a distance-enhancing temporal direction. Study 2 replicated this effect across a systematic manipulation of event valence. Study 3 asked individuals to estimate the size of words and found that individuals higher in neuroticism generally perceived words to be smaller than did individuals lower in neuroticism. In Study 4, people high (but not low) in neuroticism perceived words to be shrinking faster than they were growing. In Study 5, greater perceptual distancing, in a font size estimation task, predicted more adverse reactions to negative events in daily life. Although normative effects varied across studies, consistent support for a chronic distancing perspective of individual differences in negative affectivity was found. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Foundations of psychosocial dynamic personality theory of collective people.

PubMed

Dwairy, Marwan

2002-04-01

The concept of personality emerged as a part of the development of individualism in the western world to understand the quality of the newborn (individual). In premodern society, roles were the elements that constituted the person. Presently, about 80% of the people (Africa, Asia, and South America) in the world still live in a collective, authoritarian system. Personality theories that have been developed in Europe and North America seem to be limited in understanding and predicting the behavior of these people. One major difference between individualistic and collective peoples is their degree of individuation from the family. Western social-political systems enable individuals at the end of their development course to form an independent personality (or self) that is unique and different from others. For westerners, personality structures and processes enable us to predict behavior. Psychopathology is attributed to an intrapsychic disorder within the personality. Typically, psychotherapy aims to restore that order. For people who live in collective social systems, individuation does not take place. Therefore, norms, values, roles, and familial authority directives predict behavior more than personality. Psychopathology among these people has to do with interpersonal disorder within the family. Therefore, psychotherapy should aim to restore that order. This manuscript suggests foundations of a new psychosocial dynamic theory of personality to better fit our understanding of people living in collective societies.

Bimanual coordination positively predicts episodic memory: A combined behavioral and MRI investigation.

PubMed

Lyle, Keith B; Dombroski, Brynn A; Faul, Leonard; Hopkins, Robin F; Naaz, Farah; Switala, Andrew E; Depue, Brendan E

2017-11-01

Some people remember events more completely and accurately than other people, but the origins of individual differences in episodic memory are poorly understood. One way to advance understanding is by identifying characteristics of individuals that reliably covary with memory performance. Recent research suggests motor behavior is related to memory performance, with individuals who consistently use a single preferred hand for unimanual actions performing worse than individuals who make greater use of both hands. This research has relied on self-reports of behavior. It is unknown whether objective measures of motor behavior also predict memory performance. Here, we tested the predictive power of bimanual coordination, an important form of manual dexterity. Bimanual coordination, as measured objectively on the Purdue Pegboard Test, was positively related to correct recall on the California Verbal Learning Test-II and negatively related to false recall. Furthermore, MRI data revealed that cortical surface area in right lateral prefrontal regions was positively related to correct recall. In one of these regions, cortical thickness was negatively related to bimanual coordination. These results suggest that individual differences in episodic memory may partially reflect morphological variation in right lateral prefrontal cortex and suggest a relationship between neural correlates of episodic memory and motor behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data.

PubMed

Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong

2015-01-01

microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials.

Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data

PubMed Central

Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong

2015-01-01

Background microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. Results In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials. PMID:26114448

Predictive information speeds up visual awareness in an individuation task by modulating threshold setting, not processing efficiency.

PubMed

De Loof, Esther; Van Opstal, Filip; Verguts, Tom

2016-04-01

Theories on visual awareness claim that predicted stimuli reach awareness faster than unpredicted ones. In the current study, we disentangle whether prior information about the upcoming stimulus affects visual awareness of stimulus location (i.e., individuation) by modulating processing efficiency or threshold setting. Analogous research on stimulus identification revealed that prior information modulates threshold setting. However, as identification and individuation are two functionally and neurally distinct processes, the mechanisms underlying identification cannot simply be extrapolated directly to individuation. The goal of this study was therefore to investigate how individuation is influenced by prior information about the upcoming stimulus. To do so, a drift diffusion model was fitted to estimate the processing efficiency and threshold setting for predicted versus unpredicted stimuli in a cued individuation paradigm. Participants were asked to locate a picture, following a cue that was congruent, incongruent or neutral with respect to the picture's identity. Pictures were individuated faster in the congruent and neutral condition compared to the incongruent condition. In the diffusion model analysis, the processing efficiency was not significantly different across conditions. However, the threshold setting was significantly higher following an incongruent cue compared to both congruent and neutral cues. Our results indicate that predictive information about the upcoming stimulus influences visual awareness by shifting the threshold for individuation rather than by enhancing processing efficiency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring and predicting prostate cancer related quality of life changes using EPIC for clinical practice.

PubMed

Chipman, Jonathan J; Sanda, Martin G; Dunn, Rodney L; Wei, John T; Litwin, Mark S; Crociani, Catrina M; Regan, Meredith M; Chang, Peter

2014-03-01

We expanded the clinical usefulness of EPIC-CP (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite for Clinical Practice) by evaluating its responsiveness to health related quality of life changes, defining the minimally important differences for an individual patient change in each domain and applying it to a sexual outcome prediction model. In 1,201 subjects from a previously described multicenter longitudinal cohort we modeled the EPIC-CP domain scores of each treatment group before treatment, and at short-term and long-term followup. We considered a posttreatment domain score change from pretreatment of 0.5 SD or greater clinically significant and p ≤ 0.01 statistically significant. We determined the domain minimally important differences using the pooled 0.5 SD of the 2, 6, 12 and 24-month posttreatment changes from pretreatment values. We then recalibrated an EPIC-CP based nomogram model predicting 2-year post-prostatectomy functional erection from that developed using EPIC-26. For each health related quality of life domain EPIC-CP was sensitive to similar posttreatment health related quality of life changes with time, as was observed using EPIC-26. The EPIC-CP minimally important differences in changes in the urinary incontinence, urinary irritation/obstruction, bowel, sexual and vitality/hormonal domains were 1.0, 1.3, 1.2, 1.6 and 1.0, respectively. The EPIC-CP based sexual prediction model performed well (AUC 0.76). It showed robust agreement with its EPIC-26 based counterpart with 10% or less predicted probability differences between models in 95% of individuals and a mean ± SD difference of 0.0 ± 0.05 across all individuals. EPIC-CP is responsive to health related quality of life changes during convalescence and it can be used to predict 2-year post-prostatectomy sexual outcomes. It can facilitate shared medical decision making and patient centered care. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

PubMed

Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

2016-01-01

Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

2017-10-01

Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, P<0.01), but different SEE of measured 1RM (2.88 kg or 5.4% and 2.90 kg or 5.5%). All 1RM predictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

Adolescent risk-taking is predicted by individual differences in cognitive control over emotional, but not non-emotional, response conflict.

PubMed

Botdorf, Morgan; Rosenbaum, Gail M; Patrianakos, Jamie; Steinberg, Laurence; Chein, Jason M

2017-08-01

While much research on adolescent risk behaviour has focused on the development of prefrontal self-regulatory mechanisms, prior studies have elicited mixed evidence of a relationship between individual differences in the capacity for self-regulation and individual differences in risk taking. To explain these inconsistent findings, it has been suggested that the capacity for self-regulation may be, for most adolescents, adequately mature to produce adaptive behaviour in non-affective, "cold" circumstances, but that adolescents have a more difficult time exerting control in affective, "hot" contexts. To further explore this claim, the present study examined individual differences in self-control in the face of affective and non-affective response conflict, and examined whether differences in the functioning of cognitive control processes under these different conditions was related to risk taking. Participants completed a cognitive Stroop task, an emotional Stroop task, and a risky driving task known as the Stoplight game. Regression analyses showed that performance on the emotional Stroop task predicted laboratory risk-taking in the driving task, whereas performance on the cognitive Stroop task did not exhibit the same trend. This pattern of results is consistent with theories of adolescent risk-taking that emphasise the impacts of affective contextual influences on the ability to enact effective cognitive control.

Individual Differences in Typical Reappraisal Use Predict Amygdala and Prefrontal Responses

PubMed Central

Drabant, Emily M.; McRae, Kateri; Manuck, Stephen B.; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Gross, James J.

2010-01-01

Background Participants who are instructed to use reappraisal to downregulate negative emotion show decreased amygdala responses and increased prefrontal responses. However, it is not known whether individual differences in the tendency to use reappraisal manifests in similar neural responses when individuals are spontaneously confronted with negative situations. Such spontaneous emotion regulation might play an important role in normal and pathological responses to the emotional challenges of everyday life. Methods Fifty-six healthy women completed a blood oxygenation-level dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging challenge paradigm involving the perceptual processing of emotionally negative facial expressions. Participants also completed measures of typical emotion regulation use, trait anxiety, and neuroticism. Results Greater use of reappraisal in everyday life was related to decreased amygdala activity and increased prefrontal and parietal activity during the processing of negative emotional facial expressions. These associations were not attributable to variation in trait anxiety, neuroticism, or the use of another common form of emotion regulation, namely suppression. Conclusions These findings suggest that, like instructed reappraisal, individual differences in reappraisal use are associated with decreased activation in ventral emotion generative regions and increased activation in prefrontal control regions in response to negative stimuli. Such individual differences in emotion regulation might predict successful coping with emotional challenges as well as the onset of affective disorders. PMID:18930182

Perception is key? Does perceptual sensitivity and parenting behavior predict children's reactivity to others' emotions?

PubMed

Weeland, Joyce; Van den Akker, Alithe; Slagt, Meike; Putnam, Samuel

2017-11-01

When interacting with other people, both children's biological predispositions and past experiences play a role in how they will process and respond to social-emotional cues. Children may partly differ in their reactions to such cues because they differ in the threshold for perceiving such cues in general. Theoretically, perceptual sensitivity (i.e., the amount of detection of slight, low-intensity stimuli from the external environment independent of visual and auditory ability) might, therefore, provide us with specific information on individual differences in susceptibility to the environment. However, the temperament trait of perceptual sensitivity is highly understudied. In an experiment, we tested whether school-aged children's (N=521, 52.5% boys, M age =9.72years, SD=1.51) motor (facial electromyography) and affective (self-report) reactivities to dynamic facial expressions and vocalizations is predicted by their (parent-reported) perceptual sensitivity. Our results indicate that children's perceptual sensitivity predicts their motor reactivity to both happy and angry expressions and vocalizations. In addition, perceptual sensitivity interacted with positive (but not negative) parenting behavior in predicting children's motor reactivity to these emotions. Our findings suggest that perceptual sensitivity might indeed provide us with information on individual differences in reactivity to social-emotional cues, both alone and in interaction with parenting behavior. Because perceptual sensitivity focuses specifically on whether children perceive cues from their environment, and not on whether these cues cause arousal and/or whether children are able to regulate this arousal, it should be considered that perceptual sensitivity lies at the root of such individual differences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in multitasking ability and adaptability.

PubMed

Morgan, Brent; D'Mello, Sidney; Abbott, Robert; Radvansky, Gabriel; Haass, Michael; Tamplin, Andrea

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to identify the cognitive factors that predictability and adaptability during multitasking with a flight simulator. Multitasking has become increasingly prevalent as most professions require individuals to perform multiple tasks simultaneously. Considerable research has been undertaken to identify the characteristics of people (i.e., individual differences) that predict multitasking ability. Although working memory is a reliable predictor of general multitasking ability (i.e., performance in normal conditions), there is the question of whether different cognitive faculties are needed to rapidly respond to changing task demands (adaptability). Participants first completed a battery of cognitive individual differences tests followed by multitasking sessions with a flight simulator. After a baseline condition, difficulty of the flight simulator was incrementally increased via four experimental manipulations, and performance metrics were collected to assess multitasking ability and adaptability. Scholastic aptitude and working memory predicted general multitasking ability (i.e., performance at baseline difficulty), but spatial manipulation (in conjunction with working memory) was a major predictor of adaptability (performance in difficult conditions after accounting for baseline performance). Multitasking ability and adaptability may be overlapping but separate constructs that draw on overlapping (but not identical) sets of cognitive abilities. The results of this study are applicable to practitioners and researchers in human factors to assess multitasking performance in real-world contexts and with realistic task constraints. We also present a framework for conceptualizing multitasking adaptability on the basis of five adaptability profiles derived from performance on tasks with consistent versus increased difficulty.

Hemispheric Asymmetries in Striatal Reward Responses Relate to Approach-Avoidance Learning and Encoding of Positive-Negative Prediction Errors in Dopaminergic Midbrain Regions.

PubMed

Aberg, Kristoffer Carl; Doell, Kimberly C; Schwartz, Sophie

2015-10-28

Some individuals are better at learning about rewarding situations, whereas others are inclined to avoid punishments (i.e., enhanced approach or avoidance learning, respectively). In reinforcement learning, action values are increased when outcomes are better than predicted (positive prediction errors [PEs]) and decreased for worse than predicted outcomes (negative PEs). Because actions with high and low values are approached and avoided, respectively, individual differences in the neural encoding of PEs may influence the balance between approach-avoidance learning. Recent correlational approaches also indicate that biases in approach-avoidance learning involve hemispheric asymmetries in dopamine function. However, the computational and neural mechanisms underpinning such learning biases remain unknown. Here we assessed hemispheric reward asymmetry in striatal activity in 34 human participants who performed a task involving rewards and punishments. We show that the relative difference in reward response between hemispheres relates to individual biases in approach-avoidance learning. Moreover, using a computational modeling approach, we demonstrate that better encoding of positive (vs negative) PEs in dopaminergic midbrain regions is associated with better approach (vs avoidance) learning, specifically in participants with larger reward responses in the left (vs right) ventral striatum. Thus, individual dispositions or traits may be determined by neural processes acting to constrain learning about specific aspects of the world. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3514491-10$15.00/0.

The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

PubMed

Farine, Damien

2017-05-01

A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors, such as seasonality, led to consistent differences in the structure of social networks, using dynamic vs. static representations of networks generated differences in the predicted outbreak size of an emergent disease. These findings highlight some of the challenges associated with studying disease dynamics in animal populations, and the importance of continuing efforts to develop the network tools needed to study disease spread. © 2017 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang

It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecastingmore » models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.« less

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

PubMed

Cressler, Clayton E; Bengtson, Stefan; Nelson, William A

2017-07-01

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

'Bodily precision': a predictive coding account of individual differences in interoceptive accuracy.

PubMed

Ainley, Vivien; Apps, Matthew A J; Fotopoulou, Aikaterini; Tsakiris, Manos

2016-11-19

Individuals differ in their awareness of afferent information from within their bodies, which is typically assessed by a heartbeat perception measure of 'interoceptive accuracy' (IAcc). Neural and behavioural correlates of this trait have been investigated, but a theoretical explanation has yet to be presented. Building on recent models that describe interoception within the free energy/predictive coding framework, this paper applies similar principles to IAcc, proposing that individual differences in IAcc depend on 'precision' in interoceptive systems, i.e. the relative weight accorded to 'prior' representations and 'prediction errors' (that part of incoming interoceptive sensation not accounted for by priors), at various levels within the cortical hierarchy and between modalities. Attention has the effect of optimizing precision both within and between sensory modalities. Our central assumption is that people with high IAcc are able, with attention, to prioritize interoception over other sensory modalities and can thus adjust the relative precision of their interoceptive priors and prediction errors, where appropriate, given their personal history. This characterization explains key findings within the interoception literature; links results previously seen as unrelated or contradictory; and may have important implications for understanding cognitive, behavioural and psychopathological consequences of both high and low interoceptive awareness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Interoception beyond homeostasis: affect, cognition and mental health'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Cow-specific diet digestibility predictions based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy scans of faecal samples.

PubMed

Mehtiö, T; Rinne, M; Nyholm, L; Mäntysaari, P; Sairanen, A; Mäntysaari, E A; Pitkänen, T; Lidauer, M H

2016-04-01

This study was designed to obtain information on prediction of diet digestibility from near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) scans of faecal spot samples from dairy cows at different stages of lactation and to develop a faecal sampling protocol. NIRS was used to predict diet organic matter digestibility (OMD) and indigestible neutral detergent fibre content (iNDF) from faecal samples, and dry matter digestibility (DMD) using iNDF in feed and faecal samples as an internal marker. Acid-insoluble ash (AIA) as an internal digestibility marker was used as a reference method to evaluate the reliability of NIRS predictions. Feed and composite faecal samples were collected from 44 cows at approximately 50, 150 and 250 days in milk (DIM). The estimated standard deviation for cow-specific organic matter digestibility analysed by AIA was 12.3 g/kg, which is small considering that the average was 724 g/kg. The phenotypic correlation between direct faecal OMD prediction by NIRS and OMD by AIA over the lactation was 0.51. The low repeatability and small variability estimates for direct OMD predictions by NIRS were not accurate enough to quantify small differences in OMD between cows. In contrast to OMD, the repeatability estimates for DMD by iNDF and especially for direct faecal iNDF predictions were 0.32 and 0.46, respectively, indicating that developing of NIRS predictions for cow-specific digestibility is possible. A data subset of 20 cows with daily individual faecal samples was used to develop an on-farm sampling protocol. Based on the assessment of correlations between individual sample combinations and composite samples as well as repeatability estimates for individual sample combinations, we found that collecting up to three individual samples yields a representative composite sample. Collection of samples from all the cows of a herd every third month might be a good choice, because it would yield a better accuracy. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Individual differences in the dominance of interhemispheric connections predict cognitive ability beyond sex and brain size.

PubMed

Martínez, Kenia; Janssen, Joost; Pineda-Pardo, José Ángel; Carmona, Susanna; Román, Francisco Javier; Alemán-Gómez, Yasser; Garcia-Garcia, David; Escorial, Sergio; Quiroga, María Ángeles; Santarnecchi, Emiliano; Navas-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Desco, Manuel; Arango, Celso; Colom, Roberto

2017-07-15

Global structural brain connectivity has been reported to be sex-dependent with women having increased interhemispheric connectivity (InterHc) and men having greater intrahemispheric connectivity (IntraHc). However, (a) smaller brains show greater InterHc, (b) larger brains show greater IntraHc, and (c) women have, on average, smaller brains than men. Therefore, sex differences in brain size may modulate sex differences in global brain connectivity. At the behavioural level, sex-dependent differences in connectivity are thought to contribute to men-women differences in spatial and verbal abilities. But this has never been tested at the individual level. The current study assessed whether individual differences in global structural connectome measures (InterHc, IntraHc and the ratio of InterHc relative to IntraHc) predict spatial and verbal ability while accounting for the effect of sex and brain size. The sample included forty men and forty women, who did neither differ in age nor in verbal and spatial latent components defined by a broad battery of tests and tasks. High-resolution T 1 -weighted and diffusion-weighted images were obtained for computing brain size and reconstructing the structural connectome. Results showed that men had higher IntraHc than women, while women had an increased ratio InterHc/IntraHc. However, these sex differences were modulated by brain size. Increased InterHc relative to IntraHc predicted higher spatial and verbal ability irrespective of sex and brain size. The positive correlations between the ratio InterHc/IntraHc and the spatial and verbal abilities were confirmed in 1000 random samples generated by bootstrapping. Therefore, sex differences in global structural connectome connectivity were modulated by brain size and did not underlie sex differences in verbal and spatial abilities. Rather, the level of dominance of InterHc over IntraHc may be associated with individual differences in verbal and spatial abilities in both men and women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Short-Term Remembering as Boundedly Optimal Strategy Choice.

PubMed

Howes, Andrew; Duggan, Geoffrey B; Kalidindi, Kiran; Tseng, Yuan-Chi; Lewis, Richard L

2016-07-01

It is known that, on average, people adapt their choice of memory strategy to the subjective utility of interaction. What is not known is whether an individual's choices are boundedly optimal. Two experiments are reported that test the hypothesis that an individual's decisions about the distribution of remembering between internal and external resources are boundedly optimal where optimality is defined relative to experience, cognitive constraints, and reward. The theory makes predictions that are tested against data, not fitted to it. The experiments use a no-choice/choice utility learning paradigm where the no-choice phase is used to elicit a profile of each participant's performance across the strategy space and the choice phase is used to test predicted choices within this space. They show that the majority of individuals select strategies that are boundedly optimal. Further, individual differences in what people choose to do are successfully predicted by the analysis. Two issues are discussed: (a) the performance of the minority of participants who did not find boundedly optimal adaptations, and (b) the possibility that individuals anticipate what, with practice, will become a bounded optimal strategy, rather than what is boundedly optimal during training. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE

PubMed Central

MARROQUÍN, BRETT; NOLEN-HOEKSEMA, SUSAN

2015-01-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals’ predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals’ tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression. PMID:26146452

Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-01

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts. We compared the relative performance of these individual and superensemble forecast methods by geographic location, timing of forecast, and influenza season. We find that, overall, the superensemble forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecast method and less prone to producing a poor forecast. Furthermore, we find that these advantages increase when the superensemble weights are stratified according to the characteristics of the forecast or geographic location. These findings indicate that different competing influenza prediction systems can be combined into a single more accurate forecast product for operational delivery in real time.

Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts. We compared the relative performance of these individual and superensemble forecast methods by geographic location, timing of forecast, and influenza season. We find that, overall, the superensemble forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecast method and less prone to producing a poor forecast. Furthermore, we find that these advantages increase when the superensemble weights are stratified according to the characteristics of the forecast or geographic location. These findings indicate that different competing influenza prediction systems can be combined into a single more accurate forecast product for operational delivery in real time. PMID:29107987

Empathy and well-being correlate with centrality in different social networks.

PubMed

Morelli, Sylvia A; Ong, Desmond C; Makati, Rucha; Jackson, Matthew O; Zaki, Jamil

2017-09-12

Individuals benefit from occupying central roles in social networks, but little is known about the psychological traits that predict centrality. Across four college freshman dorms ( n = 193), we characterized individuals with a battery of personality questionnaires and also asked them to nominate dorm members with whom they had different types of relationships. This revealed several social networks within dorm communities with differing characteristics. In particular, additional data showed that networks varied in the degree to which nominations depend on ( i ) trust and ( ii ) shared fun and excitement. Networks more dependent upon trust were further defined by fewer connections than those more dependent on fun. Crucially, network and personality features interacted to predict individuals' centrality: people high in well-being (i.e., life satisfaction and positive emotion) were central to networks characterized by fun, whereas people high in empathy were central to networks characterized by trust. Together, these findings provide network-based corroboration of psychological evidence that well-being is socially attractive, whereas empathy supports close relationships. More broadly, these data highlight how an individual's personality relates to the roles that they play in sustaining their community.

Measuring Officer Knowledge and Experience to Enable Tailored Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

ample evidence to suggest that learning-related individual differences exist (Jensen, 1998; Thorndike , 1985) and that these individual differences...Gottfredson, 1998; Jensen, 1998; Thorndike , 1985). However, general mental ability would seem to affect performance through the acquisition of prior...Psychologist, 27 (1), 5-32. Thorndike , R. L. (1985). The central role of general ability in prediction. Multivariate Behavioral research, 20, 241

Who Experiences Growth in News Media Literacy and Why Does It Matter? Examining Education, Individual Differences, and Democratic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tully, Melissa; Vraga, Emily K.

2018-01-01

Developing news media literacy skills is recognized as an important part of becoming an informed citizen, but not enough research examines how growth in media literacy differs by individual characteristics. Using a panel study of undergraduate students, we examine which predispositions predict growth in news media literacy beliefs over the…

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2016-03-01

Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

Modeling individual exposures to ambient PM2.5 in the diabetes and the environment panel study (DEPS).

PubMed

Breen, Michael; Xu, Yadong; Schneider, Alexandra; Williams, Ronald; Devlin, Robert

2018-06-01

Air pollution epidemiology studies of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates, which can induce exposure error. The goal of this study was to improve ambient PM 2.5 exposure assessments for a repeated measurements study with 22 diabetic individuals in central North Carolina called the Diabetes and Environment Panel Study (DEPS) by applying the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI), which predicts five tiers of individual-level exposure metrics for ambient PM 2.5 using outdoor concentrations, questionnaires, weather, and time-location information. Using EMI, we linked a mechanistic air exchange rate (AER) model to a mass-balance PM 2.5 infiltration model to predict residential AER (Tier 1), infiltration factors (F inf_home , Tier 2), indoor concentrations (C in , Tier 3), personal exposure factors (F pex , Tier 4), and personal exposures (E, Tier 5) for ambient PM 2.5 . We applied EMI to predict daily PM 2.5 exposure metrics (Tiers 1-5) for 174 participant-days across the 13 months of DEPS. Individual model predictions were compared to a subset of daily measurements of F pex and E (Tiers 4-5) from the DEPS participants. Model-predicted F pex and E corresponded well to daily measurements with a median difference of 14% and 23%; respectively. Daily model predictions for all 174 days showed considerable temporal and house-to-house variability of AER, F inf_home , and C in (Tiers 1-3), and person-to-person variability of F pex and E (Tiers 4-5). Our study demonstrates the capability of predicting individual-level ambient PM 2.5 exposure metrics for an epidemiological study, in support of improving risk estimation. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Variation in perceptions of physical dominance and trustworthiness predicts individual differences in the effect of relationship context on women's preferences for masculine pitch in men's voices.

PubMed

Vukovic, Jovana; Jones, Benedict C; Feinberg, David R; Debruine, Lisa M; Smith, Finlay G; Welling, Lisa L M; Little, Anthony C

2011-02-01

Several studies have found that women tend to demonstrate stronger preferences for masculine men as short-term partners than as long-term partners, though there is considerable variation among women in the magnitude of this effect. One possible source of this variation is individual differences in the extent to which women perceive masculine men to possess antisocial traits that are less costly in short-term relationships than in long-term relationships. Consistent with this proposal, here we show that the extent to which women report stronger preferences for men with low (i.e., masculine) voice pitch as short-term partners than as long-term partners is associated with the extent to which they attribute physical dominance and low trustworthiness to these masculine voices. Thus, our findings suggest that variation in the extent to which women attribute negative personality characteristics to masculine men predicts individual differences in the magnitude of the effect of relationship context on women's masculinity preferences, highlighting the importance of perceived personality attributions for individual differences in women's judgments of men's vocal attractiveness and, potentially, their mate preferences. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Routine cognitive errors: a trait-like predictor of individual differences in anxiety and distress.

PubMed

Fetterman, Adam K; Robinson, Michael D

2011-02-01

Five studies (N=361) sought to model a class of errors--namely, those in routine tasks--that several literatures have suggested may predispose individuals to higher levels of emotional distress. Individual differences in error frequency were assessed in choice reaction-time tasks of a routine cognitive type. In Study 1, it was found that tendencies toward error in such tasks exhibit trait-like stability over time. In Study 3, it was found that tendencies toward error exhibit trait-like consistency across different tasks. Higher error frequency, in turn, predicted higher levels of negative affect, general distress symptoms, displayed levels of negative emotion during an interview, and momentary experiences of negative emotion in daily life (Studies 2-5). In all cases, such predictive relations remained significant with individual differences in neuroticism controlled. The results thus converge on the idea that error frequency in simple cognitive tasks is a significant and consequential predictor of emotional distress in everyday life. The results are novel, but discussed within the context of the wider literatures that informed them. © 2010 Psychology Press, an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives compared to predictable ones

PubMed Central

Evans, Nicholas G.; Cotton-Barratt, Owen

2016-01-01

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low-probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies. PMID:27393181

Neural Systems Underlying Individual Differences in Intertemporal Decision-making.

PubMed

Elton, Amanda; Smith, Christopher T; Parrish, Michael H; Boettiger, Charlotte A

2017-03-01

Excessively choosing immediate over larger future rewards, or delay discounting (DD), associates with multiple clinical conditions. Individual differences in DD likely depend on variations in the activation of and functional interactions between networks, representing possible endophenotypes for associated disorders, including alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Numerous fMRI studies have probed the neural bases of DD, but investigations of large-scale networks remain scant. We addressed this gap by testing whether activation within large-scale networks during Now/Later decision-making predicts individual differences in DD. To do so, we scanned 95 social drinkers (18-40 years old; 50 women) using fMRI during hypothetical choices between small monetary amounts available "today" or larger amounts available later. We identified neural networks engaged during Now/Later choice using independent component analysis and tested the relationship between component activation and degree of DD. The activity of two components during Now/Later choice correlated with individual DD rates: A temporal lobe network positively correlated with DD, whereas a frontoparietal-striatal network negatively correlated with DD. Activation differences between these networks predicted individual differences in DD, and their negative correlation during Now/Later choice suggests functional competition. A generalized psychophysiological interactions analysis confirmed a decrease in their functional connectivity during decision-making. The functional connectivity of these two networks negatively correlates with alcohol-related harm, potentially implicating these networks in AUDs. These findings provide novel insight into the neural underpinnings of individual differences in impulsive decision-making with potential implications for addiction and related disorders in which impulsivity is a defining feature.

Can traits predict individual growth performance? A test in a hyperdiverse tropical forest.

PubMed

Poorter, Lourens; Castilho, Carolina V; Schietti, Juliana; Oliveira, Rafael S; Costa, Flávia R C

2018-07-01

The functional trait approach has, as a central tenet, that plant traits are functional and shape individual performance, but this has rarely been tested in the field. Here, we tested the individual-based trait approach in a hyperdiverse Amazonian tropical rainforest and evaluated intraspecific variation in trait values, plant strategies at the individual level, and whether traits are functional and predict individual performance. We evaluated > 1300 tree saplings belonging to > 383 species, measured 25 traits related to growth and defense, and evaluated the effects of environmental conditions, plant size, and traits on stem growth. A total of 44% of the trait variation was observed within species, indicating a strong potential for acclimation. Individuals showed two strategy spectra, related to tissue toughness and organ size vs leaf display. In this nutrient- and light-limited forest, traits measured at the individual level were surprisingly poor predictors of individual growth performance because of convergence of traits and growth rates. Functional trait approaches based on individuals or species are conceptually fundamentally different: the species-based approach focuses on the potential and the individual-based approach on the realized traits and growth rates. Counterintuitively, the individual approach leads to a poor prediction of individual performance, although it provides a more realistic view on community dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Politics of the Gene: Social Status and Beliefs about Genetics for Individual Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shostak, Sara; Freese, Jeremy; Link, Bruce G.; Phelan, Jo C.

2009-01-01

Social scientists have predicted that individuals who occupy socially privileged positions or who have conservative political orientations are most likely to endorse the idea that genes are the root cause of differences among individuals. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of the US population, this study examines belief in the…

Fine-Scale Variation and Genetic Determinants of Alternative Splicing across Individuals

PubMed Central

Coulombe-Huntington, Jasmin; Lam, Kevin C. L.; Dias, Christel; Majewski, Jacek

2009-01-01

Recently, thanks to the increasing throughput of new technologies, we have begun to explore the full extent of alternative pre–mRNA splicing (AS) in the human transcriptome. This is unveiling a vast layer of complexity in isoform-level expression differences between individuals. We used previously published splicing sensitive microarray data from lymphoblastoid cell lines to conduct an in-depth analysis on splicing efficiency of known and predicted exons. By combining publicly available AS annotation with a novel algorithm designed to search for AS, we show that many real AS events can be detected within the usually unexploited, speculative majority of the array and at significance levels much below standard multiple-testing thresholds, demonstrating that the extent of cis-regulated differential splicing between individuals is potentially far greater than previously reported. Specifically, many genes show subtle but significant genetically controlled differences in splice-site usage. PCR validation shows that 42 out of 58 (72%) candidate gene regions undergo detectable AS, amounting to the largest scale validation of isoform eQTLs to date. Targeted sequencing revealed a likely causative SNP in most validated cases. In all 17 incidences where a SNP affected a splice-site region, in silico splice-site strength modeling correctly predicted the direction of the micro-array and PCR results. In 13 other cases, we identified likely causative SNPs disrupting predicted splicing enhancers. Using Fst and REHH analysis, we uncovered significant evidence that 2 putative causative SNPs have undergone recent positive selection. We verified the effect of five SNPs using in vivo minigene assays. This study shows that splicing differences between individuals, including quantitative differences in isoform ratios, are frequent in human populations and that causative SNPs can be identified using in silico predictions. Several cases affected disease-relevant genes and it is likely some of these differences are involved in phenotypic diversity and susceptibility to complex diseases. PMID:20011102

Decay, Transfer, and the Reacquisition of a Complex Skill: An Investigation of Practice Schedules, Observational Rehearsal, and Individual Differences

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

Academic Press. Battig, W. F. (1979). The flexibility of human memory. In L. S. Cermak & F. I. Craik (Eds.), Levels of processing in human memory...with retention, transfer, and reacquisition, overall levels of prediction were relatively weak, especially for transfer. Differences in motivation...Although some individual differences (e.g., self-efficacy) were consistently associated with retention, transfer, and reacquisition, overall levels

Prediction of Turbulent Temperature Fluctuations in Hot Jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Debonis, James R.

2017-01-01

Large-eddy simulations were used to investigate turbulent temperature fluctuations and turbulent heat flux in hot jets. A high-resolution finite-difference Navier-Stokes solver, WRLES, was used to compute the flow from a 2-inch round nozzle. Several different flow conditions, consisting of different jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios, were examined. Predictions of mean and fluctuating velocities were compared to previously obtained particle image velocimetry data. Predictions of mean and fluctuating temperature were compared to new data obtained using Raman spectroscopy. Based on the good agreement with experimental data for the individual quantities, the combined quantity turbulent heat flux was examined.

Verbal working memory predicts co-speech gesture: evidence from individual differences.

PubMed

Gillespie, Maureen; James, Ariel N; Federmeier, Kara D; Watson, Duane G

2014-08-01

Gesture facilitates language production, but there is debate surrounding its exact role. It has been argued that gestures lighten the load on verbal working memory (VWM; Goldin-Meadow, Nusbaum, Kelly, & Wagner, 2001), but gestures have also been argued to aid in lexical retrieval (Krauss, 1998). In the current study, 50 speakers completed an individual differences battery that included measures of VWM and lexical retrieval. To elicit gesture, each speaker described short cartoon clips immediately after viewing. Measures of lexical retrieval did not predict spontaneous gesture rates, but lower VWM was associated with higher gesture rates, suggesting that gestures can facilitate language production by supporting VWM when resources are taxed. These data also suggest that individual variability in the propensity to gesture is partly linked to cognitive capacities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis for estimating fat-free mass in children including overweight individuals.

PubMed

Ohta, Megumi; Midorikawa, Taishi; Hikihara, Yuki; Masuo, Yoshihisa; Sakamoto, Shizuo; Torii, Suguru; Kawakami, Yasuo; Fukunaga, Tetsuo; Kanehisa, Hiroaki

2017-02-01

This study examined the validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance (BI) analysis for predicting the fat-free masses (FFMs) of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals. The FFM and impedance (Z) values of arms, trunk, legs, and whole body were determined using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and segmental BI analyses, respectively, in 149 boys and girls aged 6 to 12 years, who were divided into model-development (n = 74), cross-validation (n = 35), and overweight (n = 40) groups. Simple regression analysis was applied to (length) 2 /Z (BI index) for each of the whole-body and 3 segments to develop the prediction equations of the measured FFM of the related body part. In the model-development group, the BI index of each of the 3 segments and whole body was significantly correlated to the measured FFM (R 2 = 0.867-0.932, standard error of estimation = 0.18-1.44 kg (5.9%-8.7%)). There was no significant difference between the measured and predicted FFM values without systematic error. The application of each equation derived in the model-development group to the cross-validation and overweight groups did not produce significant differences between the measured and predicted FFM values and systematic errors, with an exception that the arm FFM in the overweight group was overestimated. Segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis is useful for predicting the FFM of each of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals, although the application for estimating arm FFM in overweight individuals requires a certain modification.

Improved system identification using artificial neural networks and analysis of individual differences in responses of an identified neuron.

PubMed

Costalago Meruelo, Alicia; Simpson, David M; Veres, Sandor M; Newland, Philip L

2016-03-01

Mathematical modelling is used routinely to understand the coding properties and dynamics of responses of neurons and neural networks. Here we analyse the effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a modelling tool for motor neuron responses. We used ANNs to model the synaptic responses of an identified motor neuron, the fast extensor motor neuron, of the desert locust in response to displacement of a sensory organ, the femoral chordotonal organ, which monitors movements of the tibia relative to the femur of the leg. The aim of the study was threefold: first to determine the potential value of ANNs as tools to model and investigate neural networks, second to understand the generalisation properties of ANNs across individuals and to different input signals and third, to understand individual differences in responses of an identified neuron. A metaheuristic algorithm was developed to design the ANN architectures. The performance of the models generated by the ANNs was compared with those generated through previous mathematical models of the same neuron. The results suggest that ANNs are significantly better than LNL and Wiener models in predicting specific neural responses to Gaussian White Noise, but not significantly different when tested with sinusoidal inputs. They are also able to predict responses of the same neuron in different individuals irrespective of which animal was used to develop the model, although notable differences between some individuals were evident. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Validation of an individualised model of human thermoregulation for predicting responses to cold air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marken Lichtenbelt, Wouter D.; Frijns, Arjan J. H.; van Ooijen, Marieke J.; Fiala, Dusan; Kester, Arnold M.; van Steenhoven, Anton A.

2007-01-01

Most computer models of human thermoregulation are population based. Here, we individualised the Fiala model [Fiala et al. (2001) Int J Biometeorol 45:143 159] with respect to anthropometrics, body fat, and metabolic rate. The predictions of the adapted multisegmental thermoregulatory model were compared with measured skin temperatures of individuals. Data from two experiments, in which reclining subjects were suddenly exposed to mild to moderate cold environmental conditions, were used to study the effect on dynamic skin temperature responses. Body fat was measured by the three-compartment method combining underwater weighing and deuterium dilution. Metabolic rate was determined by indirect calorimetry. In experiment 1, the bias (mean difference) between predicted and measured mean skin temperature decreased from 1.8°C to -0.15°C during cold exposure. The standard deviation of the mean difference remained of the same magnitude (from 0.7°C to 0.9°C). In experiment 2 the bias of the skin temperature changed from 2.0±1.09°C using the standard model to 1.3±0.93°C using individual characteristics in the model. The inclusion of individual characteristics thus improved the predictions for an individual and led to a significantly smaller systematic error. However, a large part of the discrepancies in individual response to cold remained unexplained. Possible further improvements to the model accomplished by inclusion of more subject characteristics (i.e. body fat distribution, body shape) and model refinements on the level of (skin) blood perfusion, and control functions, are discussed.

The Impact of Time Perspective Latent Profiles on College Drinking: A Multidimensional Approach

PubMed Central

Braitman, Abby L.; Henson, James M.

2015-01-01

Background Zimbardo and Boyd’s1 time perspective, or the temporal framework individuals use to process information, has been shown to predict health behaviors such as alcohol use. Previous studies supported the predictive validity of individual dimensions of time perspective, with some dimensions acting as protective factors and others as risk factors. However, some studies produced findings contrary to the general body of literature. In addition, time perspective is a multidimensional construct, and the combination of perspectives may be more predictive than individual dimensions in isolation; consequently, multidimensional profiles are a more accurate measure of individual differences and more appropriate for predicting health behaviors. Objectives The current study identified naturally occurring profiles of time perspective and examined their association with risky alcohol use. Methods Data were collected from a college student sample (n = 431, mean age = 20.41 years) using an online survey. Time perspective profiles were identified using latent profile analysis. Results Bootstrapped regression models identified a protective class that engaged in significantly less overall drinking (β = −0.254) as well as engaging in significantly less episodic high risk drinking (β = −0.274). There was also emerging evidence of a high risk time perspective profile that was linked to more overall drinking (β = 0.198) and engaging in more high risk drinking (β = 0.245), though these differences were not significant. Conclusions/Importance These findings support examining time perspective in a multidimensional framework rather than individual dimensions in isolation. Implications include identifying students most in need of interventions, and tailoring interventions to target temporal framing in decision-making. PMID:25607806

The impact of time perspective latent profiles on college drinking: a multidimensional approach.

PubMed

Braitman, Abby L; Henson, James M

2015-04-01

Zimbardo and Boyd's(1) time perspective, or the temporal framework individuals use to process information, has been shown to predict health behaviors such as alcohol use. Previous studies supported the predictive validity of individual dimensions of time perspective, with some dimensions acting as protective factors and others as risk factors. However, some studies produced findings contrary to the general body of literature. In addition, time perspective is a multidimensional construct, and the combination of perspectives may be more predictive than individual dimensions in isolation; consequently, multidimensional profiles are a more accurate measure of individual differences and more appropriate for predicting health behaviors. The current study identified naturally occurring profiles of time perspective and examined their association with risky alcohol use. Data were collected from a college student sample (n = 431, mean age = 20.41 years) using an online survey. Time perspective profiles were identified using latent profile analysis. Bootstrapped regression models identified a protective class that engaged in significantly less overall drinking (β = -0.254) as well as engaging in significantly less episodic high risk drinking (β = -0.274). There was also emerging evidence of a high risk time perspective profile that was linked to more overall drinking (β = 0.198) and engaging in more high risk drinking (β = 0.245), though these differences were not significant. CONCLUSIONS/IMPORTANCE: These findings support examining time perspective in a multidimensional framework rather than individual dimensions in isolation. Implications include identifying students most in need of interventions, and tailoring interventions to target temporal framing in decision-making.

Predicting Smartphone Operating System from Personality and Individual Differences.

PubMed

Shaw, Heather; Ellis, David A; Kendrick, Libby-Rae; Ziegler, Fenja; Wiseman, Richard

2016-12-01

Android and iPhone devices account for over 90 percent of all smartphones sold worldwide. Despite being very similar in functionality, current discourse and marketing campaigns suggest that key individual differences exist between users of these two devices; however, this has never been investigated empirically. This is surprising, as smartphones continue to gain momentum across a variety of research disciplines. In this article, we consider if individual differences exist between these two distinct groups. In comparison to Android users, we found that iPhone owners are more likely to be female, younger, and increasingly concerned about their smartphone being viewed as a status object. Key differences in personality were also observed with iPhone users displaying lower levels of Honesty-Humility and higher levels of emotionality. Following this analysis, we were also able to build and test a model that predicted smartphone ownership at above chance level based on these individual differences. In line with extended self-theory, the type of smartphone owned provides some valuable information about its owner. These findings have implications for the increasing use of smartphones within research particularly for those working within Computational Social Science and PsychoInformatics, where data are typically collected from devices and applications running a single smartphone operating system.

The effects of reading comprehension and launch site on frequency-predictability interactions during paragraph reading.

PubMed

Whitford, Veronica; Titone, Debra

2014-01-01

We used eye movement measures of paragraph reading to examine whether word frequency and predictability interact during the earliest stages of lexical processing, with a specific focus on whether these effects are modulated by individual differences in reading comprehension or launch site (i.e., saccade length between the prior and currently fixated word--a proxy for the amount of parafoveal word processing). The joint impact of frequency and predictability on reading will elucidate whether these variables additively or multiplicatively affect the earliest stages of lexical access, which, in turn, has implications for computational models of eye movements during reading. Linear mixed effects models revealed additive effects during both early- and late-stage reading, where predictability effects were comparable for low- and high-frequency words. Moreover, less cautious readers (e.g., readers who engaged in skimming, scanning, mindless reading) demonstrated smaller frequency effects than more cautious readers. Taken together, our findings suggest that during extended reading, frequency and predictability exert additive influences on lexical and postlexical processing, and that individual differences in reading comprehension modulate sensitivity to the effects of word frequency.

Preschoolers' precision of the approximate number system predicts later school mathematics performance.

PubMed

Mazzocco, Michèle M M; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2011-01-01

The Approximate Number System (ANS) is a primitive mental system of nonverbal representations that supports an intuitive sense of number in human adults, children, infants, and other animal species. The numerical approximations produced by the ANS are characteristically imprecise and, in humans, this precision gradually improves from infancy to adulthood. Throughout development, wide ranging individual differences in ANS precision are evident within age groups. These individual differences have been linked to formal mathematics outcomes, based on concurrent, retrospective, or short-term longitudinal correlations observed during the school age years. However, it remains unknown whether this approximate number sense actually serves as a foundation for these school mathematics abilities. Here we show that ANS precision measured at preschool, prior to formal instruction in mathematics, selectively predicts performance on school mathematics at 6 years of age. In contrast, ANS precision does not predict non-numerical cognitive abilities. To our knowledge, these results provide the first evidence for early ANS precision, measured before the onset of formal education, predicting later mathematical abilities.

Preschoolers' Precision of the Approximate Number System Predicts Later School Mathematics Performance

PubMed Central

Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2011-01-01

The Approximate Number System (ANS) is a primitive mental system of nonverbal representations that supports an intuitive sense of number in human adults, children, infants, and other animal species. The numerical approximations produced by the ANS are characteristically imprecise and, in humans, this precision gradually improves from infancy to adulthood. Throughout development, wide ranging individual differences in ANS precision are evident within age groups. These individual differences have been linked to formal mathematics outcomes, based on concurrent, retrospective, or short-term longitudinal correlations observed during the school age years. However, it remains unknown whether this approximate number sense actually serves as a foundation for these school mathematics abilities. Here we show that ANS precision measured at preschool, prior to formal instruction in mathematics, selectively predicts performance on school mathematics at 6 years of age. In contrast, ANS precision does not predict non-numerical cognitive abilities. To our knowledge, these results provide the first evidence for early ANS precision, measured before the onset of formal education, predicting later mathematical abilities. PMID:21935362

Personal Capacity Building for the Human Services: The Roles of Curriculum and Individual Differences in Predicting Self-Concept in College/University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Philip D.; Martin, Andrew J.

2008-01-01

While much research has outlined the importance of intra-psychic factors in predicting workplace success, it is rare that attention is given to the development of these factors in training for human service professions (e.g. psychology, clergy, nursing). Accordingly, the present study explores differences in self-concept, a key intra-psychic…

Prediction complements explanation in understanding the developing brain.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Monica D; Casey, B J; Holmes, Avram J

2018-02-21

A central aim of human neuroscience is understanding the neurobiology of cognition and behavior. Although we have made significant progress towards this goal, reliance on group-level studies of the developed adult brain has limited our ability to explain population variability and developmental changes in neural circuitry and behavior. In this review, we suggest that predictive modeling, a method for predicting individual differences in behavior from brain features, can complement descriptive approaches and provide new ways to account for this variability. Highlighting the outsized scientific and clinical benefits of prediction in developmental populations including adolescence, we show that predictive brain-based models are already providing new insights on adolescent-specific risk-related behaviors. Together with large-scale developmental neuroimaging datasets and complementary analytic approaches, predictive modeling affords us the opportunity and obligation to identify novel treatment targets and individually tailor the course of interventions for developmental psychopathologies that impact so many young people today.

Cognitive strategies regulate fictive, but not reward prediction error signals in a sequential investment task.

PubMed

Gu, Xiaosi; Kirk, Ulrich; Lohrenz, Terry M; Montague, P Read

2014-08-01

Computational models of reward processing suggest that foregone or fictive outcomes serve as important information sources for learning and augment those generated by experienced rewards (e.g. reward prediction errors). An outstanding question is how these learning signals interact with top-down cognitive influences, such as cognitive reappraisal strategies. Using a sequential investment task and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that the reappraisal strategy selectively attenuates the influence of fictive, but not reward prediction error signals on investment behavior; such behavioral effect is accompanied by changes in neural activity and connectivity in the anterior insular cortex, a brain region thought to integrate subjective feelings with high-order cognition. Furthermore, individuals differ in the extent to which their behaviors are driven by fictive errors versus reward prediction errors, and the reappraisal strategy interacts with such individual differences; a finding also accompanied by distinct underlying neural mechanisms. These findings suggest that the variable interaction of cognitive strategies with two important classes of computational learning signals (fictive, reward prediction error) represent one contributing substrate for the variable capacity of individuals to control their behavior based on foregone rewards. These findings also expose important possibilities for understanding the lack of control in addiction based on possibly foregone rewarding outcomes. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Sasang constitutional types for the risk prediction of metabolic syndrome: a 14-year longitudinal prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Lee, Seung Ku; Kim, Jong Yeol; Cho, Namhan; Shin, Chol

2017-09-02

To examine whether the use of Sasang constitutional (SC) types, such as Tae-yang (TY), Tae-eum (TE), So-yang (SY), and So-eum (SE) types, increases the accuracy of risk prediction for metabolic syndrome. From 2001 to 2014, 3529 individuals aged 40 to 69 years participated in a longitudinal prospective cohort. The Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to predict the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. During the 14 year follow-up, 1591 incident events of metabolic syndrome were observed. Individuals with TE type had higher body mass indexes and waist circumferences than individuals with SY and SE types. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome was the highest among individuals with the TE type, followed by the SY type and the SE type. When the prediction risk models for incident metabolic syndrome were compared, the area under the curve for the model using SC types was significantly increased to 0.8173. Significant predictors for incident metabolic syndrome were different according to the SC types. For individuals with the TE type, the significant predictors were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking, drinking, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. For Individuals with the SE type, the predictors were sex, smoking, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level, while the predictors in individuals with the SY type were age, sex, BMI, smoking, drinking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. In this prospective cohort study among 3529 individuals, we observed that utilizing the SC types significantly increased the accuracy of the risk prediction for the development of metabolic syndrome.

On the value of aiming high: the causes and consequences of ambition.

PubMed

Judge, Timothy A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D

2012-07-01

Ambition is a commonly mentioned but poorly understood concept in social science research. We sought to contribute to understanding of the concept by developing and testing a model in which ambition is a middle-level trait (Cantor, 1990)-predicted by more distal characteristics but, due to its teleological nature, more proximally situated to predict career success. A 7-decade longitudinal sample of 717 high-ability individuals from the Terman life-cycle study (Terman, Sears, Cronbach, & Sears, 1989) was used in the current study. Results indicated that ambition was predicted by individual differences-conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, and general mental ability-and a socioeconomic background variable: parents' occupational prestige. Ambition, in turn, was positively related to educational attainment, occupation prestige, and income. Ambition had significant total effects with all of the endogenous variables except mortality. Overall, the results support the thesis that ambition is a middle-level trait-related to but distinct from more distal individual difference variables-that has meaningful effects on career success. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

A novel test for evaluating horses' spontaneous visual attention is predictive of attention in operant learning tasks.

PubMed

Rochais, C; Sébilleau, M; Houdebine, M; Bec, P; Hausberger, M; Henry, S

2017-08-01

Attention is described as the ability to process selectively one aspect of the environment over others. In this study, we characterized horses' spontaneous attention by designing a novel visual attention test (VAT) that is easy to apply in the animal's home environment. The test was repeated over three consecutive days and repeated again 6 months later in order to assess inter-individual variations and intra-individual stability. Different patterns of attention have been revealed: 'overall' attention when the horse merely gazed at the stimulus and 'fixed' attention characterized by fixity and orientation of at least the visual and auditory organs towards the stimulus. The individual attention characteristics remained consistent over time (after 6 months, Spearman correlation test, P < 0.05). The validity of this novel test as a predictor of individual attentional skills was assessed by comparing the results, for the same horses, with those obtained in both a 'classical' experimental attention test the 'five-choice serial reaction time task' (5-CSRTT) and a work situation (lunge working context). Our results revealed that (i) individual variations remained consistent across tests and (ii) the VAT attention measures were not only predictive of attentional skills but also of learning abilities. Differences appeared however between the first day of testing and the following test days: attention structure on the second day was predictive of learning abilities, attention performances in the 5-CSRRT and at work. The VAT appears as a promising easy-to-use tool to assess animals' attention characteristics and the impact of different factors of variation on attention.

A novel test for evaluating horses' spontaneous visual attention is predictive of attention in operant learning tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochais, C.; Sébilleau, M.; Houdebine, M.; Bec, P.; Hausberger, M.; Henry, S.

2017-08-01

Attention is described as the ability to process selectively one aspect of the environment over others. In this study, we characterized horses' spontaneous attention by designing a novel visual attention test (VAT) that is easy to apply in the animal's home environment. The test was repeated over three consecutive days and repeated again 6 months later in order to assess inter-individual variations and intra-individual stability. Different patterns of attention have been revealed: `overall' attention when the horse merely gazed at the stimulus and `fixed' attention characterized by fixity and orientation of at least the visual and auditory organs towards the stimulus. The individual attention characteristics remained consistent over time (after 6 months, Spearman correlation test, P < 0.05). The validity of this novel test as a predictor of individual attentional skills was assessed by comparing the results, for the same horses, with those obtained in both a `classical' experimental attention test the `five-choice serial reaction time task' (5-CSRTT) and a work situation (lunge working context). Our results revealed that (i) individual variations remained consistent across tests and (ii) the VAT attention measures were not only predictive of attentional skills but also of learning abilities. Differences appeared however between the first day of testing and the following test days: attention structure on the second day was predictive of learning abilities, attention performances in the 5-CSRRT and at work. The VAT appears as a promising easy-to-use tool to assess animals' attention characteristics and the impact of different factors of variation on attention.

The temporal stability and predictive validity of affect-based and cognition-based intentions.

PubMed

Keer, Mario; Conner, Mark; Van den Putte, Bas; Neijens, Peter

2014-06-01

Recent research has revealed individual differences in the extent to which people base their intentions on affect and cognition. Two studies are presented that assess whether such differences predict the strength of individuals' intention-behaviour relationships. Participants completed measures of affect, cognition, intention, and behaviour regarding a range of health behaviours. Study 1 (N = 300) found that the strength of the intention-behaviour relationship was significantly related to the extent to which individuals based their intentions on affect, but not to the extent they based them on cognition. Study 2 (N = 387) replicated the findings of the first study. In addition, Study 2 revealed that intention stability mediated the relationship between the degree people based their intentions on affect and the strength of the intention-behaviour relationship. Thus, individuals who base their intentions strongly on affect have more stable intentions, and are therefore more likely to enact them. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Vocabulary Knowledge Predicts Lexical Processing: Evidence from a Group of Participants with Diverse Educational Backgrounds

PubMed Central

Mainz, Nina; Shao, Zeshu; Brysbaert, Marc; Meyer, Antje S.

2017-01-01

Vocabulary knowledge is central to a speaker's command of their language. In previous research, greater vocabulary knowledge has been associated with advantages in language processing. In this study, we examined the relationship between individual differences in vocabulary and language processing performance more closely by (i) using a battery of vocabulary tests instead of just one test, and (ii) testing not only university students (Experiment 1) but young adults from a broader range of educational backgrounds (Experiment 2). Five vocabulary tests were developed, including multiple-choice and open antonym and synonym tests and a definition test, and administered together with two established measures of vocabulary. Language processing performance was measured using a lexical decision task. In Experiment 1, vocabulary and word frequency were found to predict word recognition speed while we did not observe an interaction between the effects. In Experiment 2, word recognition performance was predicted by word frequency and the interaction between word frequency and vocabulary, with high-vocabulary individuals showing smaller frequency effects. While overall the individual vocabulary tests were correlated and showed similar relationships with language processing as compared to a composite measure of all tests, they appeared to share less variance in Experiment 2 than in Experiment 1. Implications of our findings concerning the assessment of vocabulary size in individual differences studies and the investigation of individuals from more varied backgrounds are discussed. PMID:28751871

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

PubMed Central

Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of condition indices as surrogates for individual quality and fitness. PMID:26305457

Single drug biomarker prediction for ER- breast cancer outcome from chemotherapy.

PubMed

Chen, Yong-Zi; Kim, Youngchul; Soliman, Hatem H; Ying, GuoGuang; Lee, Jae K

2018-06-01

ER-negative breast cancer includes most aggressive subtypes of breast cancer such as triple negative (TN) breast cancer. Excluded from hormonal and targeted therapies effectively used for other subtypes of breast cancer, standard chemotherapy is one of the primary treatment options for these patients. However, as ER- patients have shown highly heterogeneous responses to different chemotherapies, it has been difficult to select most beneficial chemotherapy treatments for them. In this study, we have simultaneously developed single drug biomarker models for four standard chemotherapy agents: paclitaxel (T), 5-fluorouracil (F), doxorubicin (A) and cyclophosphamide (C) to predict responses and survival of ER- breast cancer patients treated with combination chemotherapies. We then flexibly combined these individual drug biomarkers for predicting patient outcomes of two independent cohorts of ER- breast cancer patients who were treated with different drug combinations of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. These individual and combined drug biomarker models significantly predicted chemotherapy response for 197 ER- patients in the Hatzis cohort (AUC = 0.637, P  = 0.002) and 69 ER- patients in the Hess cohort (AUC = 0.635, P  = 0.056). The prediction was also significant for the TN subgroup of both cohorts (AUC = 0.60, 0.72, P  = 0.043, 0.009). In survival analysis, our predicted responder patients showed significantly improved survival with a >17 months longer median PFS than the predicted non-responder patients for both ER- and TN subgroups (log-rank test P -value = 0.018 and 0.044). This flexible prediction capability based on single drug biomarkers may allow us to even select new drug combinations most beneficial to individual patients with ER- breast cancer. © 2018 The authors.

Predicting individualized clinical measures by a generalized prediction framework and multimodal fusion of MRI data

PubMed Central

Meng, Xing; Jiang, Rongtao; Lin, Dongdong; Bustillo, Juan; Jones, Thomas; Chen, Jiayu; Yu, Qingbao; Du, Yuhui; Zhang, Yu; Jiang, Tianzi; Sui, Jing; Calhoun, Vince D.

2016-01-01

Neuroimaging techniques have greatly enhanced the understanding of neurodiversity (human brain variation across individuals) in both health and disease. The ultimate goal of using brain imaging biomarkers is to perform individualized predictions. Here we proposed a generalized framework that can predict explicit values of the targeted measures by taking advantage of joint information from multiple modalities. This framework also enables whole brain voxel-wise searching by combining multivariate techniques such as ReliefF, clustering, correlation-based feature selection and multiple regression models, which is more flexible and can achieve better prediction performance than alternative atlas-based methods. For 50 healthy controls and 47 schizophrenia patients, three kinds of features derived from resting-state fMRI (fALFF), sMRI (gray matter) and DTI (fractional anisotropy) were extracted and fed into a regression model, achieving high prediction for both cognitive scores (MCCB composite r = 0.7033, MCCB social cognition r = 0.7084) and symptomatic scores (positive and negative syndrome scale [PANSS] positive r = 0.7785, PANSS negative r = 0.7804). Moreover, the brain areas likely responsible for cognitive deficits of schizophrenia, including middle temporal gyrus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, striatum, cuneus and cerebellum, were located with different weights, as well as regions predicting PANSS symptoms, including thalamus, striatum and inferior parietal lobule, pinpointing the potential neuromarkers. Finally, compared to a single modality, multimodal combination achieves higher prediction accuracy and enables individualized prediction on multiple clinical measures. There is more work to be done, but the current results highlight the potential utility of multimodal brain imaging biomarkers to eventually inform clinical decision-making. PMID:27177764

Who Sees Human? The Stability and Importance of Individual Differences in Anthropomorphism

PubMed Central

Waytz, Adam; Cacioppo, John; Epley, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Anthropomorphism is a far-reaching phenomenon that incorporates ideas from social psychology, cognitive psychology, developmental psychology, and the neurosciences. Although commonly considered to be a relatively universal phenomenon with only limited importance in modern industrialized societies—more cute than critical—our research suggests precisely the opposite. In particular, we provide a measure of stable individual differences in anthropomorphism that predicts three important consequences for everyday life. This research demonstrates that individual differences in anthropomorphism predict the degree of moral care and concern afforded to an agent, the amount of responsibility and trust placed on an agent, and the extent to which an agent serves as a source of social influence on the self. These consequences have implications for disciplines outside of psychology including human–computer interaction, business (marketing and finance), and law. Concluding discussion addresses how understanding anthropomorphism not only informs the burgeoning study of nonpersons, but how it informs classic issues underlying person perception as well. PMID:24839457

Cognitive Control and Individual Differences in Economic Ultimatum Decision-Making

PubMed Central

De Neys, Wim; Novitskiy, Nikolay; Geeraerts, Leen; Ramautar, Jennifer; Wagemans, Johan

2011-01-01

Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance) and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude) markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making. PMID:22096522

Use of Neuroanatomical Pattern Classification to Identify Subjects in At-Risk Mental States of Psychosis and Predict Disease Transition

PubMed Central

Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Meisenzahl, Eva M.; Davatzikos, Christos; Bottlender, Ronald; Frodl, Thomas; Scheuerecker, Johanna; Schmitt, Gisela; Zetzsche, Thomas; Decker, Petra; Reiser, Maximilian; Möller, Hans-Jürgen; Gaser, Christian

2014-01-01

Context Identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis has relied on prodromal symptomatology. Recently, machine learning algorithms have been successfully used for magnetic resonance imaging–based diagnostic classification of neuropsychiatric patient populations. Objective To determine whether multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification facilitates identification of individuals in different at-risk mental states (ARMS) of psychosis and enables the prediction of disease transition at the individual level. Design Multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification was performed on the structural magnetic resonance imaging data of individuals in early or late ARMS vs healthy controls (HCs). The predictive power of the method was then evaluated by categorizing the baseline imaging data of individuals with transition to psychosis vs those without transition vs HCs after 4 years of clinical follow-up. Classification generalizability was estimated by cross-validation and by categorizing an independent cohort of 45 new HCs. Setting Departments of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany. Participants The first classification analysis included 20 early and 25 late at-risk individuals and 25 matched HCs. The second analysis consisted of 15 individuals with transition, 18 without transition, and 17 matched HCs. Main Outcome Measures Specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of classification. Results The 3-group, cross-validated classification accuracies of the first analysis were 86% (HCs vs the rest), 91% (early at-risk individuals vs the rest), and 86% (late at-risk individuals vs the rest). The accuracies in the second analysis were 90% (HCs vs the rest), 88% (individuals with transition vs the rest), and 86% (individuals without transition vs the rest). Independent HCs were correctly classified in 96% (first analysis) and 93% (second analysis) of cases. Conclusions Different ARMSs and their clinical outcomes may be reliably identified on an individual basis by assessing patterns of whole-brain neuroanatomical abnormalities. These patterns may serve as valuable biomarkers for the clinician to guide early detection in the prodromal phase of psychosis. PMID:19581561

Tailoring Mathematical Models to Stem-Cell Derived Cardiomyocyte Lines Can Improve Predictions of Drug-Induced Changes to Their Electrophysiology.

PubMed

Lei, Chon Lok; Wang, Ken; Clerx, Michael; Johnstone, Ross H; Hortigon-Vinagre, Maria P; Zamora, Victor; Allan, Andrew; Smith, Godfrey L; Gavaghan, David J; Mirams, Gary R; Polonchuk, Liudmila

2017-01-01

Human induced pluripotent stem cell derived cardiomyocytes (iPSC-CMs) have applications in disease modeling, cell therapy, drug screening and personalized medicine. Computational models can be used to interpret experimental findings in iPSC-CMs, provide mechanistic insights, and translate these findings to adult cardiomyocyte (CM) electrophysiology. However, different cell lines display different expression of ion channels, pumps and receptors, and show differences in electrophysiology. In this exploratory study, we use a mathematical model based on iPSC-CMs from Cellular Dynamic International (CDI, iCell), and compare its predictions to novel experimental recordings made with the Axiogenesis Cor.4U line. We show that tailoring this model to the specific cell line, even using limited data and a relatively simple approach, leads to improved predictions of baseline behavior and response to drugs. This demonstrates the need and the feasibility to tailor models to individual cell lines, although a more refined approach will be needed to characterize individual currents, address differences in ion current kinetics, and further improve these results.

Changing me to keep you: state jealousy promotes perceiving similarity between the self and a romantic rival.

PubMed

Slotter, Erica B; Lucas, Gale M; Jakubiak, Brittany; Lasslett, Heather

2013-10-01

Individuals sometimes alter their self-views to be more similar to others--traditionally romantic partners--because they are motivated to do so. A common motivating force is the desire to affiliate with a partner. The current research examined whether a different motivation--romantic jealousy--might promote individuals to alter their self-views to be more similar to a romantic rival, rather than a partner. Romantic jealousy occurs when individuals perceive a rival as a threat to their relationship and motivates individuals to defend their relationship. We proposed that one novel way that individuals might defend their relationship is by seeing themselves as more similar to a perceived romantic rival. We predicted individuals would alter their self-views to be more similar to a rival that they believed their partner found attractive. Importantly, we predicted that state romantic jealousy would motivate these self-alterations. Three studies confirmed these hypotheses.

[The research of near-infrared blood glucose measurement using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural network].

PubMed

Dai, Juan; Ji, Zhong; Du, Yubao

2017-08-01

Existing near-infrared non-invasive blood glucose detection modelings mostly detect multi-spectral signals with different wavelength, which is not conducive to the popularization of non-invasive glucose meter at home and does not consider the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals. In order to solve these problems, this study presented a non-invasive blood glucose detection model combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural network (ANN) by using the 1 550 nm near-infrared absorbance as the independent variable and the concentration of blood glucose as the dependent variable, named as PSO-2ANN. The PSO-2ANN model was based on two sub-modules of neural networks with certain structures and arguments, and was built up after optimizing the weight coefficients of the two networks by particle swarm optimization. The results of 10 volunteers were predicted by PSO-2ANN. It was indicated that the relative error of 9 volunteers was less than 20%; 98.28% of the predictions of blood glucose by PSO-2ANN were distributed in the regions A and B of Clarke error grid, which confirmed that PSO-2ANN could offer higher prediction accuracy and better robustness by comparison with ANN. Additionally, even the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals may be different due to the influence of environment, temper, mental state and so on, PSO-2ANN can correct this difference only by adjusting one argument. The PSO-2ANN model provided us a new prospect to overcome individual differences in blood glucose prediction.

Individual differences in implicit motor learning: task specificity in sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning

PubMed Central

Raza, Meher; Ivry, Richard B.

2016-01-01

In standard taxonomies, motor skills are typically treated as representative of implicit or procedural memory. We examined two emblematic tasks of implicit motor learning, sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning, asking whether individual differences in learning are correlated between these tasks, as well as how individual differences within each task are related to different performance variables. As a prerequisite, it was essential to establish the reliability of learning measures for each task. Participants were tested twice on a visuomotor adaptation task and on a sequence learning task, either the serial reaction time task or the alternating reaction time task. Learning was evident in all tasks at the group level and reliable at the individual level in visuomotor adaptation and the alternating reaction time task but not in the serial reaction time task. Performance variability was predictive of learning in both domains, yet the relationship was in the opposite direction for adaptation and sequence learning. For the former, faster learning was associated with lower variability, consistent with models of sensorimotor adaptation in which learning rates are sensitive to noise. For the latter, greater learning was associated with higher variability and slower reaction times, factors that may facilitate the spread of activation required to form predictive, sequential associations. Interestingly, learning measures of the different tasks were not correlated. Together, these results oppose a shared process for implicit learning in sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning and provide insight into the factors that account for individual differences in learning within each task domain. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We investigated individual differences in the ability to implicitly learn motor skills. As a prerequisite, we assessed whether individual differences were reliable across test sessions. We found that two commonly used tasks of implicit learning, visuomotor adaptation and the alternating serial reaction time task, exhibited good test-retest reliability in measures of learning and performance. However, the learning measures did not correlate between the two tasks, arguing against a shared process for implicit motor learning. PMID:27832611

Examination of Individual Differences in Outcomes from a Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial Comparing Formal and Informal Individual Auditory Training Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Sherri L.; Saunders, Gabrielle H.; Chisolm, Theresa H.; Frederick, Melissa; Bailey, Beth A.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine if patient characteristics or clinical variables could predict who benefits from individual auditory training. Method: A retrospective series of analyses were performed using a data set from a large, multisite, randomized controlled clinical trial that compared the treatment effects of at-home…

Early auditory evoked potential is modulated by selective attention and related to individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Giuliano, Ryan J; Karns, Christina M; Neville, Helen J; Hillyard, Steven A

2014-12-01

A growing body of research suggests that the predictive power of working memory (WM) capacity for measures of intellectual aptitude is due to the ability to control attention and select relevant information. Crucially, attentional mechanisms implicated in controlling access to WM are assumed to be domain-general, yet reports of enhanced attentional abilities in individuals with larger WM capacities are primarily within the visual domain. Here, we directly test the link between WM capacity and early attentional gating across sensory domains, hypothesizing that measures of visual WM capacity should predict an individual's capacity to allocate auditory selective attention. To address this question, auditory ERPs were recorded in a linguistic dichotic listening task, and individual differences in ERP modulations by attention were correlated with estimates of WM capacity obtained in a separate visual change detection task. Auditory selective attention enhanced ERP amplitudes at an early latency (ca. 70-90 msec), with larger P1 components elicited by linguistic probes embedded in an attended narrative. Moreover, this effect was associated with greater individual estimates of visual WM capacity. These findings support the view that domain-general attentional control mechanisms underlie the wide variation of WM capacity across individuals.

Individual differences in transcranial electrical stimulation current density

PubMed Central

Russell, Michael J; Goodman, Theodore; Pierson, Ronald; Shepherd, Shane; Wang, Qiang; Groshong, Bennett; Wiley, David F

2013-01-01

Transcranial electrical stimulation (TCES) is effective in treating many conditions, but it has not been possible to accurately forecast current density within the complex anatomy of a given subject's head. We sought to predict and verify TCES current densities and determine the variability of these current distributions in patient-specific models based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. Two experiments were performed. The first experiment estimated conductivity from MRIs and compared the current density results against actual measurements from the scalp surface of 3 subjects. In the second experiment, virtual electrodes were placed on the scalps of 18 subjects to model simulated current densities with 2 mA of virtually applied stimulation. This procedure was repeated for 4 electrode locations. Current densities were then calculated for 75 brain regions. Comparison of modeled and measured external current in experiment 1 yielded a correlation of r = .93. In experiment 2, modeled individual differences were greatest near the electrodes (ten-fold differences were common), but simulated current was found in all regions of the brain. Sites that were distant from the electrodes (e.g. hypothalamus) typically showed two-fold individual differences. MRI-based modeling can effectively predict current densities in individual brains. Significant variation occurs between subjects with the same applied electrode configuration. Individualized MRI-based modeling should be considered in place of the 10-20 system when accurate TCES is needed. PMID:24285948

A locus coeruleus-norepinephrine account of individual differences in working memory capacity and attention control.

PubMed

Unsworth, Nash; Robison, Matthew K

2017-08-01

Studies examining individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) have suggested that low WMC individuals have particular deficits in attention control processes compared to high WMC individuals. In the current article we suggest that part of the WMC-attention control relation is due to variation in the functioning of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system (LC-NE). Specifically, we suggest that because of dysregulation of LC-NE functioning, the fronto-parietal control network for low WMC individuals is only weakly activated, resulting in greater default-mode network activity (and greater mind-wandering) for low WMC individuals compared to high WMC individuals. This results in disrupted attention control and overall more erratic performance (more lapses of attention) for low WMC individuals than for high WMC individuals. This framework is used to examine previous studies of individual differences in WMC and attention control, and new evidence is examined on the basis of predictions of the framework to pupillary responses as an indirect marker of LC-NE functioning.

Real-time and simultaneous control of artificial limbs based on pattern recognition algorithms.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Håkansson, Bo; Brånemark, Rickard

2014-07-01

The prediction of simultaneous limb motions is a highly desirable feature for the control of artificial limbs. In this work, we investigate different classification strategies for individual and simultaneous movements based on pattern recognition of myoelectric signals. Our results suggest that any classifier can be potentially employed in the prediction of simultaneous movements if arranged in a distributed topology. On the other hand, classifiers inherently capable of simultaneous predictions, such as the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), were found to be more cost effective, as they can be successfully employed in their simplest form. In the prediction of individual movements, the one-vs-one (OVO) topology was found to improve classification accuracy across different classifiers and it was therefore used to benchmark the benefits of simultaneous control. As opposed to previous work reporting only offline accuracy, the classification performance and the resulting controllability are evaluated in real time using the motion test and target achievement control (TAC) test, respectively. We propose a simultaneous classification strategy based on MLP that outperformed a top classifier for individual movements (LDA-OVO), thus improving the state-of-the-art classification approach. Furthermore, all the presented classification strategies and data collected in this study are freely available in BioPatRec, an open source platform for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

Aerobic and resistance exercise reinforcement and discomfort tolerance predict meeting activity guidelines

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Understanding individual-differences of those people who do and do not meet physical activity recommendations could inform targets for increasing physical activity. Exercise reinforcement may be one such individual-level determinate, but it is not yet known whether those who meet activi...

Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

PubMed Central

Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

2013-01-01

Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

Predicting age from cortical structure across the lifespan.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2018-03-01

Despite interindividual differences in cortical structure, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have demonstrated a large degree of population-level consistency in age-related differences in brain morphology. This study assessed how accurately an individual's age could be predicted by estimates of cortical morphology, comparing a variety of structural measures, including thickness, gyrification and fractal dimensionality. Structural measures were calculated across up to seven different parcellation approaches, ranging from one region to 1000 regions. The age prediction framework was trained using morphological measures obtained from T1-weighted MRI volumes collected from multiple sites, yielding a training dataset of 1056 healthy adults, aged 18-97. Age predictions were calculated using a machine-learning approach that incorporated nonlinear differences over the lifespan. In two independent, held-out test samples, age predictions had a median error of 6-7 years. Age predictions were best when using a combination of cortical metrics, both thickness and fractal dimensionality. Overall, the results reveal that age-related differences in brain structure are systematic enough to enable reliable age prediction based on metrics of cortical morphology. © 2018 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A reciprocal model of face recognition and autistic traits: evidence from an individual differences perspective.

PubMed

Halliday, Drew W R; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Scherf, K Suzanne; Sherf, Suzanne K; Tanaka, James W

2014-01-01

Although not a core symptom of the disorder, individuals with autism often exhibit selective impairments in their face processing abilities. Importantly, the reciprocal connection between autistic traits and face perception has rarely been examined within the typically developing population. In this study, university participants from the social sciences, physical sciences, and humanities completed a battery of measures that assessed face, object and emotion recognition abilities, general perceptual-cognitive style, and sub-clinical autistic traits (the Autism Quotient (AQ)). We employed separate hierarchical multiple regression analyses to evaluate which factors could predict face recognition scores and AQ scores. Gender, object recognition performance, and AQ scores predicted face recognition behaviour. Specifically, males, individuals with more autistic traits, and those with lower object recognition scores performed more poorly on the face recognition test. Conversely, university major, gender and face recognition performance reliably predicted AQ scores. Science majors, males, and individuals with poor face recognition skills showed more autistic-like traits. These results suggest that the broader autism phenotype is associated with lower face recognition abilities, even among typically developing individuals.

A Reciprocal Model of Face Recognition and Autistic Traits: Evidence from an Individual Differences Perspective

PubMed Central

Halliday, Drew W. R.; MacDonald, Stuart W. S.; Sherf, Suzanne K.; Tanaka, James W.

2014-01-01

Although not a core symptom of the disorder, individuals with autism often exhibit selective impairments in their face processing abilities. Importantly, the reciprocal connection between autistic traits and face perception has rarely been examined within the typically developing population. In this study, university participants from the social sciences, physical sciences, and humanities completed a battery of measures that assessed face, object and emotion recognition abilities, general perceptual-cognitive style, and sub-clinical autistic traits (the Autism Quotient (AQ)). We employed separate hierarchical multiple regression analyses to evaluate which factors could predict face recognition scores and AQ scores. Gender, object recognition performance, and AQ scores predicted face recognition behaviour. Specifically, males, individuals with more autistic traits, and those with lower object recognition scores performed more poorly on the face recognition test. Conversely, university major, gender and face recognition performance reliably predicted AQ scores. Science majors, males, and individuals with poor face recognition skills showed more autistic-like traits. These results suggest that the broader autism phenotype is associated with lower face recognition abilities, even among typically developing individuals. PMID:24853862

Individual differences in the balance of GABA to glutamate in pFC predict the ability to select among competing options.

PubMed

de la Vega, Alejandro; Brown, Mark S; Snyder, Hannah R; Singel, Debra; Munakata, Yuko; Banich, Marie T

2014-11-01

Individuals vary greatly in their ability to select one item or response when presented with a multitude of options. Here we investigate the neural underpinnings of these individual differences. Using magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we found that the balance of inhibitory versus excitatory neurotransmitters in pFC predicts the ability to select among task-relevant options in two language production tasks. The greater an individual's concentration of GABA relative to glutamate in the lateral pFC, the more quickly he or she could select a relevant word from among competing options. This outcome is consistent with our computational modeling of this task [Snyder, H. R., Hutchison, N., Nyhus, E., Curran, T., Banich, M. T., O'Reilly, R. C., et al. Neural inhibition enables selection during language processing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A., 107, 16483-16488, 2010], which predicts that greater net inhibition in pFC increases the efficiency of resolving competition among task-relevant options. Moreover, the association with the GABA/glutamate ratio was specific to selection and was not observed for executive function ability in general. These findings are the first to link the balance of excitatory and inhibitory neural transmission in pFC to specific aspects of executive function.

Personality Makes a Difference: Attachment Orientation Moderates Theory of Planned Behavior Prediction of Cardiac Medication Adherence.

PubMed

Peleg, Shira; Vilchinsky, Noa; Fisher, William A; Khaskia, Abed; Mosseri, Morris

2017-12-01

To achieve a comprehensive understanding of patients' adherence to medication following acute coronary syndrome (ACS), we assessed the possible moderating role played by attachment orientation on the effects of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC), as derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991), on intention and reported adherence. A prospective longitudinal design was employed. During hospitalization, ACS male patients (N = 106) completed a set of self-report questionnaires including sociodemographic variables, attachment orientation, and measures of TPB constructs. Six months post-discharge, 90 participants completed a questionnaire measuring adherence to medication. Attachment orientations moderated some of the predictions of the TPB model. PBC predicted intention and reported adherence, but these associations were found to be significant only among individuals with lower, as opposed to higher, attachment anxiety. The association between attitudes and intention was stronger among individuals with higher, as opposed to lower, attachment anxiety. Only among individuals with higher attachment avoidance, subjective norms were negatively associated with intention to take medication. Cognitive variables appear to explain both adherence intention and behavior, but differently, depending on individuals' attachment orientations. Integrating personality and cognitive models may prove effective in understanding patients' health behaviors. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exploring personality dimensions that influence practice and performance of a simulated laparoscopic task in the objective structured clinical examination.

PubMed

Malhotra, Neha; Poolton, Jamie M; Wilson, Mark R; Leung, Gilberto; Zhu, Frank; Fan, Joe K M; Masters, Rich S W

2015-01-01

Surgical educators have encouraged the investigation of individual differences in aptitude and personality in surgical performance. An individual personality difference that has been shown to influence laparoscopic performance under time pressure is movement specific reinvestment. Movement specific reinvestment has 2 dimensions, movement self-consciousness (MS-C) (i.e., the propensity to consciously monitor movements) and conscious motor processing (CMP) (i.e., the propensity to consciously control movements), which have been shown to differentially influence laparoscopic performance in practice but have yet to be investigated in the context of psychological stress (e.g., the objective structured clinical examination [OSCE]). This study investigated the role of individual differences in propensity for MS-C and CMP in practice of a fundamental laparoscopic skill and in laparoscopic performance during the OSCE. Furthermore, this study examined whether individual differences during practice of a fundamental laparoscopic skill were predictive of laparoscopic performance during the OSCE. Overall, 77 final-year undergraduate medical students completed the movement specific reinvestment scale, an assessment tool that quantifies the propensity for MS-C and CMP. Participants were trained to proficiency on a fundamental laparoscopic skill. The number of trials to reach proficiency was measured, and completion times were recorded during early practice, later practice, and the OSCE. There was a trend for CMP to be negatively associated with the number of trials to reach proficiency (p = 0.064). A higher propensity for CMP was associated with fewer trials to reach proficiency (β = -0.70, p = 0.023). CMP and MS-C did not significantly predict completion times in the OSCE (p > 0.05). Completion times in early practice (β = 0.05, p = 0.016) and later practice (β = 0.47, p < 0.001) and number of trials to reach proficiency (β = 0.23, p = 0.003) significantly predicted completion times in the OSCE. It appears that a higher propensity for CMP predicts faster rates of learning of a fundamental laparoscopic skill. Furthermore, laparoscopic performance during practice is indicative of laparoscopic performance in the challenging conditions of the OSCE. The lack of association between the 2 dimensions of movement specific reinvestment and performance during the OSCE is explained using the theory of reinvestment as a framework. Overall, consideration of personality differences and individual differences in ability during practice could help inform the development of individualized surgical training programs. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in public and private drinking contexts: a multi-level GENACIS analysis.

PubMed

Bond, Jason C; Roberts, Sarah C M; Greenfield, Thomas K; Korcha, Rachael; Ye, Yu; Nayak, Madhabika B

2010-05-01

This multi-national study hypothesized that higher levels of country-level gender equality would predict smaller differences in the frequency of women's compared to men's drinking in public (like bars and restaurants) settings and possibly private (home or party) settings. GENACIS project survey data with drinking contexts included 22 countries in Europe (8); the Americas (7); Asia (3); Australasia (2), and Africa (2), analyzed using hierarchical linear models (individuals nested within country). Age, gender and marital status were individual predictors; country-level gender equality as well as equality in economic participation, education, and political participation, and reproductive autonomy and context of violence against women measures were country-level variables. In separate models, more reproductive autonomy, economic participation, and educational attainment and less violence against women predicted smaller differences in drinking in public settings. Once controlling for country-level economic status, only equality in economic participation predicted the size of the gender difference. Most country-level variables did not explain the gender difference in frequency of drinking in private settings. Where gender equality predicted this difference, the direction of the findings was opposite from the direction in public settings, with more equality predicting a larger gender difference, although this relationship was no longer significant after controlling for country-level economic status. Findings suggest that country-level gender equality may influence gender differences in drinking. However, the effects of gender equality on drinking may depend on the specific alcohol measure, in this case drinking context, as well as on the aspect of gender equality considered. Similar studies that use only global measures of gender equality may miss key relationships. We consider potential implications for alcohol related consequences, policy and public health.

Does the Value of Dynamic Assessment in Predicting End-of-First-Grade Mathematics Performance Differ as a Function of English Language Proficiency?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seethaler, Pamela M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the added value of dynamic assessment (DA) for predicting individual differences in year-end first-grade calculation (CA) and word-problem (WP) performance as a function of limited English proficiency (LEP) status. Beginning first graders (129 LEP; 163 non-LEP) were assessed on brief and static mathematics…

External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Duncan, Ryan P; Cavanaugh, James T; Earhart, Gammon M; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Leddy, Abigail L; Paul, Serene S; Canning, Colleen G; Thackeray, Anne; Dibble, Leland E

2015-08-01

Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76-0.89), comparable to the developmental study. The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual's risk of an impending fall. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Complex Story: Universal Preference vs. Individual Differences Shaping Aesthetic Response to Fractals Patterns.

PubMed

Street, Nichola; Forsythe, Alexandra M; Reilly, Ronan; Taylor, Richard; Helmy, Mai S

2016-01-01

Fractal patterns offer one way to represent the rough complexity of the natural world. Whilst they dominate many of our visual experiences in nature, little large-scale perceptual research has been done to explore how we respond aesthetically to these patterns. Previous research (Taylor et al., 2011) suggests that the fractal patterns with mid-range fractal dimensions (FDs) have universal aesthetic appeal. Perceptual and aesthetic responses to visual complexity have been more varied with findings suggesting both linear (Forsythe et al., 2011) and curvilinear (Berlyne, 1970) relationships. Individual differences have been found to account for many of the differences we see in aesthetic responses but some, such as culture, have received little attention within the fractal and complexity research fields. This two-study article aims to test preference responses to FD and visual complexity, using a large cohort (N = 443) of participants from around the world to allow universality claims to be tested. It explores the extent to which age, culture and gender can predict our preferences for fractally complex patterns. Following exploratory analysis that found strong correlations between FD and visual complexity, a series of linear mixed-effect models were implemented to explore if each of the individual variables could predict preference. The first tested a linear complexity model (likelihood of selecting the more complex image from the pair of images) and the second a mid-range FD model (likelihood of selecting an image within mid-range). Results show that individual differences can reliably predict preferences for complexity across culture, gender and age. However, in fitting with current findings the mid-range models show greater consistency in preference not mediated by gender, age or culture. This article supports the established theory that the mid-range fractal patterns appear to be a universal construct underlying preference but also highlights the fragility of universal claims by demonstrating individual differences in preference for the interrelated concept of visual complexity. This highlights a current stalemate in the field of empirical aesthetics.

Excitation-based and informational masking of a tonal signal in a four-tone masker.

PubMed

Leibold, Lori J; Hitchens, Jack J; Buss, Emily; Neff, Donna L

2010-04-01

This study examined contributions of peripheral excitation and informational masking to the variability in masking effectiveness observed across samples of multi-tonal maskers. Detection thresholds were measured for a 1000-Hz signal presented simultaneously with each of 25, four-tone masker samples. Using a two-interval, forced-choice adaptive task, thresholds were measured with each sample fixed throughout trial blocks for ten listeners. Average thresholds differed by as much as 26 dB across samples. An excitation-based model of partial loudness [Moore, B. C. J. et al. (1997). J. Audio Eng. Soc. 45, 224-237] was used to predict thresholds. These predictions accounted for a significant portion of variance in the data of several listeners, but no relation between the model and data was observed for many listeners. Moreover, substantial individual differences, on the order of 41 dB, were observed for some maskers. The largest individual differences were found for maskers predicted to produce minimal excitation-based masking. In subsequent conditions, one of five maskers was randomly presented in each interval. The difference in performance for samples with low versus high predicted thresholds was reduced in random compared to fixed conditions. These findings are consistent with a trading relation whereby informational masking is largest for conditions in which excitation-based masking is smallest.

The embodiment of emotion: language use during the feeling of social emotions predicts cortical somatosensory activity.

PubMed

Saxbe, Darby E; Yang, Xiao-Fei; Borofsky, Larissa A; Immordino-Yang, Mary Helen

2013-10-01

Complex social emotions involve both abstract cognitions and bodily sensations, and individuals may differ on their relative reliance on these. We hypothesized that individuals' descriptions of their feelings during a semi-structured emotion induction interview would reveal two distinct psychological styles-a more abstract, cognitive style and a more body-based, affective style-and that these would be associated with somatosensory neural activity. We examined 28 participants' open-ended verbal responses to admiration- and compassion-provoking narratives in an interview and BOLD activity to the same narratives during subsequent functional magnetic resonance imaging scanning. Consistent with hypotheses, individuals' affective and cognitive word use were stable across emotion conditions, negatively correlated and unrelated to reported emotion strength in the scanner. Greater use of affective relative to cognitive words predicted more activation in SI, SII, middle anterior cingulate cortex and insula during emotion trials. The results suggest that individuals' verbal descriptions of their feelings reflect differential recruitment of neural regions supporting physical body awareness. Although somatosensation has long been recognized as an important component of emotion processing, these results offer 'proof of concept' that individual differences in open-ended speech reflect different processing styles at the neurobiological level. This study also demonstrates SI involvement during social emotional experience.

Utilizing individual fish biomass and relative abundance models to map environmental niche associations of adult and juvenile targeted fishes.

PubMed

Galaiduk, Ronen; Radford, Ben T; Harvey, Euan S

2018-06-21

Many fishes undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to meet their energy and resource needs as they grow. Habitat resource partitioning and patterns of habitat connectivity between conspecific fishes at different life-history stages is a significant knowledge gap. Species distribution models were used to examine patterns in the relative abundance, individual biomass estimates and environmental niche associations of different life stages of three iconic West Australian fishes. Continuous predictive maps describing the spatial distribution of abundance and individual biomass of the study species were created as well predictive hotspot maps that identify possible areas for aggregation of individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (i.e. spawning grounds, fisheries refugia or nursery areas). The models and maps indicate that processes driving the abundance patterns could be different from the body size associated demographic processes throughout an individual's life cycle. Incorporating life-history in the spatially explicit management plans can ensure that critical habitat of the vulnerable stages (e.g. juvenile fish, spawning stock) is included within proposed protected areas and can enhance connectivity between various functional areas (e.g. nursery areas and adult populations) which, in turn, can improve the abundance of targeted species as well as other fish species relying on healthy ecosystem functioning.

Mortality Differences Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage: A Risk-Adjusted Assessment Using Claims Data

PubMed Central

Beveridge, Roy A.; Mendes, Sean M.; Caplan, Arial; Rogstad, Teresa L.; Olson, Vanessa; Williams, Meredith C.; McRae, Jacquelyn M.; Vargas, Stefan

2017-01-01

Medicare Advantage (MA) has grown rapidly since the Affordable Care Act; nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries now choose MA. An assessment of the comparative value of the 2 options is confounded by an apparent selection bias favoring MA, as reflected in mortality differences. Previous assessments have been hampered by lack of access to claims diagnosis data for the MA population. An indirect comparison of mortality as an outcome variable was conducted by modeling mortality on a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data set, applying the model to an MA data set, and then evaluating the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality in the MA data set. The mortality model adjusted for clinical conditions and demographic factors. Model development considered the effect of potentially greater coding intensity in the MA population. Further analysis calculated ratios for subpopulations. Predicted, risk-adjusted mortality was lower in the MA population than in FFS Medicare. However, the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality (0.80) suggested that the individuals in the MA data set were less likely to die than would be predicted had those individuals been enrolled in FFS Medicare. Differences between actual and predicted mortality were particularly pronounced in low income (dual eligibility), nonwhite race, high morbidity, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) subgroups. After controlling for baseline clinical risk as represented by claims diagnosis data, mortality differences favoring MA over FFS Medicare persisted, particularly in vulnerable subgroups and HMO plans. These findings suggest that differences in morbidity do not fully explain differences in mortality between the 2 programs. PMID:28578605

Sex and STEM Occupation Predict Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ) Scores in Half a Million People.

PubMed

Ruzich, Emily; Allison, Carrie; Chakrabarti, Bhismadev; Smith, Paula; Musto, Henry; Ring, Howard; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2015-01-01

This study assesses Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ) scores in a 'big data' sample collected through the UK Channel 4 television website, following the broadcasting of a medical education program. We examine correlations between the AQ and age, sex, occupation, and UK geographic region in 450,394 individuals. We predicted that age and geography would not be correlated with AQ, whilst sex and occupation would have a correlation. Mean AQ for the total sample score was m = 19.83 (SD = 8.71), slightly higher than a previous systematic review of 6,900 individuals in a non-clinical sample (mean of means = 16.94) This likely reflects that this big-data sample includes individuals with autism who in the systematic review score much higher (mean of means = 35.19). As predicted, sex and occupation differences were observed: on average, males (m = 21.55, SD = 8.82) scored higher than females (m = 18.95; SD = 8.52), and individuals working in a STEM career (m = 21.92, SD = 8.92) scored higher than individuals non-STEM careers (m = 18.92, SD = 8.48). Also as predicted, age and geographic region were not meaningfully correlated with AQ. These results support previous findings relating to sex and STEM careers in the largest set of individuals for which AQ scores have been reported and suggest the AQ is a useful self-report measure of autistic traits.

The Contribution of Cognitive Factors to Individual Differences in Understanding Noise-Vocoded Speech in Young and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Rosemann, Stephanie; Gießing, Carsten; Özyurt, Jale; Carroll, Rebecca; Puschmann, Sebastian; Thiel, Christiane M.

2017-01-01

Noise-vocoded speech is commonly used to simulate the sensation after cochlear implantation as it consists of spectrally degraded speech. High individual variability exists in learning to understand both noise-vocoded speech and speech perceived through a cochlear implant (CI). This variability is partly ascribed to differing cognitive abilities like working memory, verbal skills or attention. Although clinically highly relevant, up to now, no consensus has been achieved about which cognitive factors exactly predict the intelligibility of speech in noise-vocoded situations in healthy subjects or in patients after cochlear implantation. We aimed to establish a test battery that can be used to predict speech understanding in patients prior to receiving a CI. Young and old healthy listeners completed a noise-vocoded speech test in addition to cognitive tests tapping on verbal memory, working memory, lexicon and retrieval skills as well as cognitive flexibility and attention. Partial-least-squares analysis revealed that six variables were important to significantly predict vocoded-speech performance. These were the ability to perceive visually degraded speech tested by the Text Reception Threshold, vocabulary size assessed with the Multiple Choice Word Test, working memory gauged with the Operation Span Test, verbal learning and recall of the Verbal Learning and Retention Test and task switching abilities tested by the Comprehensive Trail-Making Test. Thus, these cognitive abilities explain individual differences in noise-vocoded speech understanding and should be considered when aiming to predict hearing-aid outcome. PMID:28638329

Predicting differences in the perceived relevance of crime's costs and benefits in a test of rational choice theory.

PubMed

Bouffard, Jeffrey A

2007-08-01

Previous hypothetical scenario tests of rational choice theory have presented all participants with the same set of consequences, implicitly assuming that these consequences would be relevant for each individual. Recent research demonstrates that those researcher-presented consequences do not accurately reflect those considered by study participants and that there is individual variation in the relevance of various consequences. Despite this and some theoretical propositions that such differences should exist, little empirical research has explored the possibility of predicting such variation. This study allows participants to develop their own set of relevant consequences for three hypothetical offenses and examines how several demographic and theoretical variables impact those consequences' relevance. Exploratory results suggest individual factors impact the perceived relevance of several cost and benefit types, even among a relatively homogenous sample of college students. Implications for future tests of rational choice theory, as well as policy implications are discussed.

Why middle-aged listeners have trouble hearing in everyday settings.

PubMed

Ruggles, Dorea; Bharadwaj, Hari; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G

2012-08-07

Anecdotally, middle-aged listeners report difficulty conversing in social settings, even when they have normal audiometric thresholds [1-3]. Moreover, young adult listeners with "normal" hearing vary in their ability to selectively attend to speech amid similar streams of speech. Ignoring age, these individual differences correlate with physiological differences in temporal coding precision present in the auditory brainstem, suggesting that the fidelity of encoding of suprathreshold sound helps explain individual differences [4]. Here, we revisit the conundrum of whether early aging influences an individual's ability to communicate in everyday settings. Although absolute selective attention ability is not predicted by age, reverberant energy interferes more with selective attention as age increases. Breaking the brainstem response down into components corresponding to coding of stimulus fine structure and envelope, we find that age alters which brainstem component predicts performance. Specifically, middle-aged listeners appear to rely heavily on temporal fine structure, which is more disrupted by reverberant energy than temporal envelope structure is. In contrast, the fidelity of envelope cues predicts performance in younger adults. These results hint that temporal envelope cues influence spatial hearing in reverberant settings more than is commonly appreciated and help explain why middle-aged listeners have particular difficulty communicating in daily life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior and neuroimaging at baseline predict individual response to combined mathematical and working memory training in children.

PubMed

Nemmi, Federico; Helander, Elin; Helenius, Ola; Almeida, Rita; Hassler, Martin; Räsänen, Pekka; Klingberg, Torkel

2016-08-01

Mathematical performance is highly correlated with several general cognitive abilities, including working memory (WM) capacity. Here we investigated the effect of numerical training using a number-line (NLT), WM training (WMT), or the combination of the two on a composite score of mathematical ability. The aim was to investigate if the combination contributed to the outcome, and determine if baseline performance or neuroimaging predict the magnitude of improvement. We randomly assigned 308, 6-year-old children to WMT, NLT, WMT+NLT or a control intervention. Overall, there was a significant effect of NLT but not WMT. The WMT+NLT was the only group that improved significantly more than the controls, although the interaction NLTxWM was non-significant. Higher WM and maths performance predicted larger benefits for WMT and NLT, respectively. Neuroimaging at baseline also contributed significant information about training gain. Different individuals showed as much as a three-fold difference in their responses to the same intervention. These results show that the impact of an intervention is highly dependent on individual characteristics of the child. If differences in responses could be used to optimize the intervention for each child, future interventions could be substantially more effective. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

PubMed

Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

2013-01-01

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism

PubMed Central

Murray, Damian R.; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

2013-01-01

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat—famine—also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities. PMID:23658718

Evaluation of a Social Contextual Model of Delinquency: A Cross-Study Replication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scaramella, Laura V.; Conger, Rand D.; Spoth, Richard; Simons, Ronald L.

2002-01-01

Examined three theories for predicting risk for delinquency during adolescence with sixth- and seventh-grade students: an individual difference perspective, social interactional model, and social contextual approach. Found that lack of nurturant and involved parenting indirectly predicted delinquency by increasing antisocial behavior and deviant…

Coherent Motion Sensitivity Predicts Individual Differences in Subtraction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boets, Bart; De Smedt, Bert; Ghesquiere, Pol

2011-01-01

Recent findings suggest deficits in coherent motion sensitivity, an index of visual dorsal stream functioning, in children with poor mathematical skills or dyscalculia, a specific learning disability in mathematics. We extended these data using a longitudinal design to unravel whether visual dorsal stream functioning is able to "predict"…

Instrumentality, Expressivity, and Relational Qualities in the Same-Sex Friendships of College Women and Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frey, Lisa L.; Beesley, Denise; Hurst, Rebecca; Saldana, Star; Licuanan, Brian

2016-01-01

Using the relational-cultural model (Jordan, Kaplan, Miller, Stiver, & Surrey, 1991), the authors hypothesized that instrumentality, expressivity, and the individual affective experience of same-sex friendships would predict increased relationship mutuality, with college women and men showing different predictive patterns. Overall, results…

Role of Social Performance in Predicting Learning Problems: Prediction of Risk Using Logistic Regression Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Del Prette, Zilda Aparecida Pereira; Prette, Almir Del; De Oliveira, Lael Almeida; Gresham, Frank M.; Vance, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Social skills are specific behaviors that individuals exhibit in order to successfully complete social tasks whereas social competence represents judgments by significant others that these social tasks have been successfully accomplished. The present investigation identified the best sociobehavioral predictors obtained from different raters…

Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Ensembles for Weather Prediction and Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory

2013-04-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel" synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model "observation error") as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. Previous results from an ENSO-prediction supermodel [Kirtman et al.] are re-examined in light of the hypothesis about the importance of qualitative inter-model differences.

Inferring social status and rich club effects in enterprise communication networks.

PubMed

Dong, Yuxiao; Tang, Jie; Chawla, Nitesh V; Lou, Tiancheng; Yang, Yang; Wang, Bai

2015-01-01

Social status, defined as the relative rank or position that an individual holds in a social hierarchy, is known to be among the most important motivating forces in social behaviors. In this paper, we consider the notion of status from the perspective of a position or title held by a person in an enterprise. We study the intersection of social status and social networks in an enterprise. We study whether enterprise communication logs can help reveal how social interactions and individual status manifest themselves in social networks. To that end, we use two enterprise datasets with three communication channels--voice call, short message, and email--to demonstrate the social-behavioral differences among individuals with different status. We have several interesting findings and based on these findings we also develop a model to predict social status. On the individual level, high-status individuals are more likely to be spanned as structural holes by linking to people in parts of the enterprise networks that are otherwise not well connected to one another. On the community level, the principle of homophily, social balance and clique theory generally indicate a "rich club" maintained by high-status individuals, in the sense that this community is much more connected, balanced and dense. Our model can predict social status of individuals with 93% accuracy.

Modeling individual differences in working memory performance: a source activation account

PubMed Central

Daily, Larry Z.; Lovett, Marsha C.; Reder, Lynne M.

2008-01-01

Working memory resources are needed for processing and maintenance of information during cognitive tasks. Many models have been developed to capture the effects of limited working memory resources on performance. However, most of these models do not account for the finding that different individuals show different sensitivities to working memory demands, and none of the models predicts individual subjects' patterns of performance. We propose a computational model that accounts for differences in working memory capacity in terms of a quantity called source activation, which is used to maintain goal-relevant information in an available state. We apply this model to capture the working memory effects of individual subjects at a fine level of detail across two experiments. This, we argue, strengthens the interpretation of source activation as working memory capacity. PMID:19079561

Dopamine and the Management of Attentional Resources: Genetic Markers of Striatal D2 Dopamine Predict Individual Differences in the Attentional Blink

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colzato, Lorenza S.; Slagter, Heleen A.; de Rover, Mischa; Hommel, Bernhard

2011-01-01

The attentional blink (AB)--a deficit in reporting the second of two target stimuli presented in close succession in a rapid sequence of distracters--has been related to processing limitations in working memory. Given that dopamine (DA) plays a crucial role working memory, the present study tested whether individual differences in the size of the…

Heart rate variability reactivity and new romance: Cause or consequence?

PubMed

Bailey, Laura K; Davis, Ron

2017-09-01

There are documented physiological differences between single and coupled individuals during the "honeymoon period" of nascent romantic relationships. One such difference is in autonomic reactivity, specifically heart rate variability (HRV) reactivity. This finding had previously been interpreted as evidence of a stress buffering effect of relationship formation. The present study explored among university women two competing longitudinal hypotheses conceptualizing differences in HRV reactivity as either a cause or a consequence of romantic relationship formation. Results did not support the hypothesis that HRV reactivity changes as a consequence of beginning a new romantic relationship. Instead, lower HRV reactivity predicted greater relationship formation amongst women with low BMI and higher resting HRV. The functioning of the heart therefore predicted the likelihood that an individual would find love. These interactions may be the result of differing success rates of various mating strategies for women with low and high BMI and HRV. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From neural signatures of emotional modulation to social cognition: individual differences in healthy volunteers and psychiatric participants

PubMed Central

Aguado, Jaume; Baez, Sandra; Huepe, David; Lopez, Vladimir; Ortega, Rodrigo; Sigman, Mariano; Mikulan, Ezequiel; Lischinsky, Alicia; Torrente, Fernando; Cetkovich, Marcelo; Torralva, Teresa; Bekinschtein, Tristan; Manes, Facundo

2014-01-01

It is commonly assumed that early emotional signals provide relevant information for social cognition tasks. The goal of this study was to test the association between (a) cortical markers of face emotional processing and (b) social-cognitive measures, and also to build a model which can predict this association (a and b) in healthy volunteers as well as in different groups of psychiatric patients. Thus, we investigated the early cortical processing of emotional stimuli (N170, using a face and word valence task) and their relationship with the social-cognitive profiles (SCPs, indexed by measures of theory of mind, fluid intelligence, speed processing and executive functions). Group comparisons and individual differences were assessed among schizophrenia (SCZ) patients and their relatives, individuals with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), individuals with euthymic bipolar disorder (BD) and healthy participants (educational level, handedness, age and gender matched). Our results provide evidence of emotional N170 impairments in the affected groups (SCZ and relatives, ADHD and BD) as well as subtle group differences. Importantly, cortical processing of emotional stimuli predicted the SCP, as evidenced by a structural equation model analysis. This is the first study to report an association model of brain markers of emotional processing and SCP. PMID:23685775

Hierarchical Status Predicts Behavioral Vulnerability and Nucleus Accumbens Metabolic Profile Following Chronic Social Defeat Stress.

PubMed

Larrieu, Thomas; Cherix, Antoine; Duque, Aranzazu; Rodrigues, João; Lei, Hongxia; Gruetter, Rolf; Sandi, Carmen

2017-07-24

Extensive data highlight the existence of major differences in individuals' susceptibility to stress [1-4]. While genetic factors [5, 6] and exposure to early life stress [7, 8] are key components for such neurobehavioral diversity, intriguing observations revealed individual differences in response to stress in inbred mice [9-12]. This raised the possibility that other factors might be critical in stress vulnerability. A key challenge in the field is to identify non-invasively risk factors for vulnerability to stress. Here, we investigated whether behavioral factors, emerging from preexisting dominance hierarchies, could predict vulnerability to chronic stress [9, 13-16]. We applied a chronic social defeat stress (CSDS) model of depression in C57BL/6J mice to investigate the predictive power of hierarchical status to pinpoint which individuals will exhibit susceptibility to CSDS. Given that the high social status of dominant mice would be the one particularly challenged by CSDS, we predicted and found that dominant individuals were the ones showing a strong susceptibility profile as indicated by strong social avoidance following CSDS, while subordinate mice were not affected. Data from 1 H-NMR spectroscopy revealed that the metabolic profile in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) relates to social status and vulnerability to stress. Under basal conditions, subordinates show lower levels of energy-related metabolites compared to dominants. In subordinates, but not dominants, levels of these metabolites were increased after exposure to CSDS. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that identifies non-invasively the origin of behavioral risk factors predictive of stress-induced depression-like behaviors associated with metabolic changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in cyber security behaviors: an examination of who is sharing passwords.

PubMed

Whitty, Monica; Doodson, James; Creese, Sadie; Hodges, Duncan

2015-01-01

In spite of the number of public advice campaigns, researchers have found that individuals still engage in risky password practices. There is a dearth of research available on individual differences in cyber security behaviors. This study focused on the risky practice of sharing passwords. As predicted, we found that individuals who scored high on a lack of perseverance were more likely to share passwords. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found younger [corrected] people and individuals who score high on self-monitoring were more likely to share passwords. We speculate on the reasons behind these findings, and examine how they might be considered in future cyber security educational campaigns.

Individual Differences in Cyber Security Behaviors: An Examination of Who Is Sharing Passwords

PubMed Central

Doodson, James; Creese, Sadie; Hodges, Duncan

2015-01-01

Abstract In spite of the number of public advice campaigns, researchers have found that individuals still engage in risky password practices. There is a dearth of research available on individual differences in cyber security behaviors. This study focused on the risky practice of sharing passwords. As predicted, we found that individuals who scored high on a lack of perseverance were more likely to share passwords. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found older people and individuals who score high on self-monitoring were more likely to share passwords. We speculate on the reasons behind these findings, and examine how they might be considered in future cyber security educational campaigns. PMID:25517697

The Role of Individual Differences in Employee Adoption of TQM Orientation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coyle-Shapiro, Jacqueline A. -M.; Morrow, Paula C.

2003-01-01

Employee surveys before and 9 and 32 months after total quality management (TQM) implementation (n=186, 166, 118) identified three individual characteristics that collectively explained the variance in and better predicted TQM adoption: organizational commitment, trust in colleagues, and importance of higher-order needs for achievement and…

Vocal Function in Introverts and Extraverts during a Psychological Stress Reactivity Protocol

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dietrich, Maria; Verdolini Abbott, Katherine

2012-01-01

Purpose: To examine the proposal that introversion predictably influences extralaryngeal and vocal behavior in vocally healthy individuals compared with individuals with extraversion and whether differences are of a nature that may support a risk hypothesis for primary muscle tension dysphonia. Method: Fifty-four vocally healthy female adults…

Individual and Environmental Influences on Chinese Student Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niu, Weihua

2007-01-01

Primarily using self-report questionnaires and psychometric tests in a sample of 357 Chinese high school students, this study examines how both individual and environmental factors can independently predict student creativity as measured by three different methods, including two product-orientated measures (story completion and collage making),…

The Enduring Appeal of "Learning Styles"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Catherine

2010-01-01

Individualism is the dominant value system in Western cultures and, as such, it affects the conduct of every aspect of human endeavour, including education. One of the most enduring effects on education has been the search for individual differences that can explain and predict variation in student achievement, with the hope that pedagogical…

Environment-dependence of behavioural consistency in adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis).

PubMed

Horváth, Gergely; Mészáros, Boglárka; Urszán, Tamás János; Bajer, Katalin; Molnár, Orsolya; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Herczeg, Gábor

2017-01-01

Understanding the background mechanisms affecting the emergence and maintenance of consistent between-individual variation within population in single (animal personality) or across multiple (behavioural syndrome) behaviours has key importance. State-dependence theory suggests that behaviour is 'anchored' to individual state (e.g. body condition, gender, age) and behavioural consistency emerges through behavioural-state feedbacks. A number of relevant state variables are labile (e.g. body condition, physiological performance) and expected to be affected by short-term environmental change. Yet, whether short-term environmental shifts affect behavioural consistency during adulthood remains questionable. Here, by employing a full-factorial laboratory experiment, we explored if quantity of food (low vs. high) and time available for thermoregulation (3h vs. 10h per day) had an effect on activity and risk-taking of reproductive adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis). We focussed on different components of behavioural variation: (i) strength of behavioural consistency (repeatability for animal personality; between-individual correlation for behavioural syndrome), (ii) behavioural type (individual mean behaviour) and (iii) behavioural predictability (within-individual behavioural variation). Activity was repeatable in all treatments. Risk-taking was repeatable only in the low basking treatments. We found significant between-individual correlation only in the low food × long basking time group. The treatments did not affect behavioural type, but affected behavioural predictability. Activity predictability was higher in the short basking treatment, where it also decreased with size (≈ age). Risk-taking predictability in the short basking treatment increased with size under food limitation, but decreased when food supply was high. We conclude that short-term environmental change can alter various components of behavioural consistency. The effect could be detected in the presence/absence patterns of animal personality and behavioural syndrome and the level of individual behavioural predictability, but not in behavioural type.

PPCM: Combing multiple classifiers to improve protein-protein interaction prediction

DOE PAGES

Yao, Jianzhuang; Guo, Hong; Yang, Xiaohan

2015-08-01

Determining protein-protein interaction (PPI) in biological systems is of considerable importance, and prediction of PPI has become a popular research area. Although different classifiers have been developed for PPI prediction, no single classifier seems to be able to predict PPI with high confidence. We postulated that by combining individual classifiers the accuracy of PPI prediction could be improved. We developed a method called protein-protein interaction prediction classifiers merger (PPCM), and this method combines output from two PPI prediction tools, GO2PPI and Phyloprof, using Random Forests algorithm. The performance of PPCM was tested by area under the curve (AUC) using anmore » assembled Gold Standard database that contains both positive and negative PPI pairs. Our AUC test showed that PPCM significantly improved the PPI prediction accuracy over the corresponding individual classifiers. We found that additional classifiers incorporated into PPCM could lead to further improvement in the PPI prediction accuracy. Furthermore, cross species PPCM could achieve competitive and even better prediction accuracy compared to the single species PPCM. This study established a robust pipeline for PPI prediction by integrating multiple classifiers using Random Forests algorithm. Ultimately, this pipeline will be useful for predicting PPI in nonmodel species.« less

Predictive Measures of Locomotor Performance on an Unstable Walking Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; De Dios, Y. E.; Gadd, N. E.; Goel, R.; Wood, S. J.; Cohen, H. S.;

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then use Bayesian averaging methods to combine the predictions from these systems and create superensemble forecasts. We demonstrate that on average, the superensemble approach produces more accurate forecasts than those made from any of the individual forecasting systems. PMID:27733698

Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk prediction models estimate the risk of developing future outcomes for individuals based on one or more underlying characteristics (predictors). We review how researchers develop and validate risk prediction models within an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, in order to assess the feasibility and conduct of the approach. Methods A qualitative review of the aims, methodology, and reporting in 15 articles that developed a risk prediction model using IPD from multiple studies. Results The IPD approach offers many opportunities but methodological challenges exist, including: unavailability of requested IPD, missing patient data and predictors, and between-study heterogeneity in methods of measurement, outcome definitions and predictor effects. Most articles develop their model using IPD from all available studies and perform only an internal validation (on the same set of data). Ten of the 15 articles did not allow for any study differences in baseline risk (intercepts), potentially limiting their model’s applicability and performance in some populations. Only two articles used external validation (on different data), including a novel method which develops the model on all but one of the IPD studies, tests performance in the excluded study, and repeats by rotating the omitted study. Conclusions An IPD meta-analysis offers unique opportunities for risk prediction research. Researchers can make more of this by allowing separate model intercept terms for each study (population) to improve generalisability, and by using ‘internal-external cross-validation’ to simultaneously develop and validate their model. Methodological challenges can be reduced by prospectively planned collaborations that share IPD for risk prediction. PMID:24397587

Can We Predict Foraging Success in a Marine Predator from Dive Patterns Only? Validation with Prey Capture Attempt Data

PubMed Central

Viviant, Morgane; Monestiez, Pascal; Guinet, Christophe

2014-01-01

Predicting how climatic variations will affect marine predator populations relies on our ability to assess foraging success, but evaluating foraging success in a marine predator at sea is particularly difficult. Dive metrics are commonly available for marine mammals, diving birds and some species of fish. Bottom duration or dive duration are usually used as proxies for foraging success. However, few studies have tried to validate these assumptions and identify the set of behavioral variables that best predict foraging success at a given time scale. The objective of this study was to assess if foraging success in Antarctic fur seals could be accurately predicted from dive parameters only, at different temporal scales. For this study, 11 individuals were equipped with either Hall sensors or accelerometers to record dive profiles and detect mouth-opening events, which were considered prey capture attempts. The number of prey capture attempts was best predicted by descent and ascent rates at the dive scale; bottom duration and descent rates at 30-min, 1-h, and 2-h scales; and ascent rates and maximum dive depths at the all-night scale. Model performances increased with temporal scales, but rank and sign of the factors varied according to the time scale considered, suggesting that behavioral adjustment in response to prey distribution could occur at certain scales only. The models predicted the foraging intensity of new individuals with good accuracy despite high inter-individual differences. Dive metrics that predict foraging success depend on the species and the scale considered, as verified by the literature and this study. The methodology used in our study is easy to implement, enables an assessment of model performance, and could be applied to any other marine predator. PMID:24603534

Individual differences in human brain development.

PubMed

Brown, Timothy T

2017-01-01

This article discusses recent scientific advances in the study of individual differences in human brain development. Focusing on structural neuroimaging measures of brain morphology and tissue properties, two kinds of variability are related and explored: differences across individuals of the same age and differences across age as a result of development. A recent multidimensional modeling study is explained, which was able to use brain measures to predict an individual's chronological age within about one year on average, in children, adolescents, and young adults between 3 and 20 years old. These findings reveal great regularity in the sequence of the aggregate brain state across different ages and phases of development, despite the pronounced individual differences people show on any single brain measure at any given age. Future research is suggested, incorporating additional measures of brain activity and function. WIREs Cogn Sci 2017, 8:e1389. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1389 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 The Authors. WIREs Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of Patient-Controlled Analgesic Consumption: A Multimodel Regression Tree Approach.

PubMed

Hu, Yuh-Jyh; Ku, Tien-Hsiung; Yang, Yu-Hung; Shen, Jia-Ying

2018-01-01

Several factors contribute to individual variability in postoperative pain, therefore, individuals consume postoperative analgesics at different rates. Although many statistical studies have analyzed postoperative pain and analgesic consumption, most have identified only the correlation and have not subjected the statistical model to further tests in order to evaluate its predictive accuracy. In this study involving 3052 patients, a multistrategy computational approach was developed for analgesic consumption prediction. This approach uses data on patient-controlled analgesia demand behavior over time and combines clustering, classification, and regression to mitigate the limitations of current statistical models. Cross-validation results indicated that the proposed approach significantly outperforms various existing regression methods. Moreover, a comparison between the predictions by anesthesiologists and medical specialists and those of the computational approach for an independent test data set of 60 patients further evidenced the superiority of the computational approach in predicting analgesic consumption because it produced markedly lower root mean squared errors.

Evaluation of selection index: application to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index for soybean breeding.

PubMed

Bouchez, A; Goffinet, B

1990-02-01

Selection indices can be used to predict one trait from information available on several traits in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Plant or animal breeders are interested in selecting only the best individuals, and need to compare the efficiency of different trait combinations in order to choose the index ensuring the best prediction quality for individual values. As the usual tools for index evaluation do not remain unbiased in all cases, we propose a robust way of evaluation by means of an estimator of the mean-square error of prediction (EMSEP). This estimator remains valid even when parameters are not known, as usually assumed, but are estimated. EMSEP is applied to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index at the F5 generation of a classical breeding scheme for soybeans. Best predictions for precocity are obtained by means of indices using only part of the available information.

Multiple measures of dispositional global/local bias predict attentional blink magnitude.

PubMed

Dale, Gillian; Arnell, Karen M

2015-07-01

When the second of two targets (T2) is presented temporally close to the first target (T1) in a rapid serial visual presentation stream, accuracy to identify T2 is markedly reduced-an attentional blink (AB). While most individuals show an AB, Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) demonstrated that individual differences in dispositional attentional focus predicted AB performance, such that individuals who showed a natural bias toward the global level of Navon letter stimuli were less susceptible to the AB and showed a smaller AB effect. For the current study, we extended the findings of Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) through two experiments. In Experiment 1, we examined the relationship between dispositional global/local bias and the AB using a highly reliable hierarchical shape task measure. In Experiment 2, we examined whether three distinct global/local measures could predict AB performance. In both experiments, performance on the global/local tasks predicted subsequent AB performance, such that individuals with a greater preference for the global information showed a reduced AB. This supports previous findings, as well as recent models which discuss the role of attentional breadth in selective attention.

Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jianlin; Li, Xun; Huang, Lin; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhang, Hongliang

2017-11-01

Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFEs) of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are -0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (-0.25 to -0.16) and MFE (0.26-0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06-0.19 and MNE of 0.16-0.22 of the individual predictions. The ensemble predictions agree better with observations with daily, monthly, and annual averaging times in all regions of China for both PM2.5 and O3-1h. The study demonstrates that ensemble predictions from combining predictions from individual emission inventories can improve the accuracy of predicted temporal and spatial distributions of air pollutants. This study is the first ensemble model study in China using multiple emission inventories, and the results are publicly available for future health effect studies.

The Political Self: How Identity Aligns Preferences With Epistemic Needs.

PubMed

Federico, Christopher M; Ekstrom, Pierce D

2018-06-01

Numerous studies have indicated that the need for closure predicts political preferences. We examined a potential moderator of this relationship: political-identity centrality, or the extent to which individuals' political preferences are central to their self-concept. We tested three hypotheses. First, we predicted that need for closure would be more strongly related to political identity (symbolic ideology and party identification; Hypothesis 1) and issue positions (operational ideology; Hypothesis 2) among individuals who see their political preferences as more self-central. Then we predicted that the stronger relationship between need for closure and issue positions among individuals high in centrality would be accounted for by stronger relationships between need for closure and political identity and between political identity and issue positions (Hypothesis 3). Data from a nationally representative survey provide evidence for these hypotheses, suggesting that the relationship between epistemic needs and political preferences differs as a function of how self-relevant politics is.

The Conforming Brain and Deontological Resolve

PubMed Central

Pincus, Melanie; LaViers, Lisa; Prietula, Michael J.; Berns, Gregory

2014-01-01

Our personal values are subject to forces of social influence. Deontological resolve captures how strongly one relies on absolute rules of right and wrong in the representation of one's personal values and may predict willingness to modify one's values in the presence of social influence. Using fMRI, we found that a neurobiological metric for deontological resolve based on relative activity in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) during the passive processing of sacred values predicted individual differences in conformity. Individuals with stronger deontological resolve, as measured by greater VLPFC activity, displayed lower levels of conformity. We also tested whether responsiveness to social reward, as measured by ventral striatal activity during social feedback, predicted variability in conformist behavior across individuals but found no significant relationship. From these results we conclude that unwillingness to conform to others' values is associated with a strong neurobiological representation of social rules. PMID:25170989

Effects of Data Anonymization by Cell Suppression on Descriptive Statistics and Predictive Modeling Performance

PubMed Central

Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Vinterbo, Staal; Dreiseitl, Stephan

2002-01-01

Protecting individual data in disclosed databases is essential. Data anonymization strategies can produce table ambiguation by suppression of selected cells. Using table ambiguation, different degrees of anonymization can be achieved, depending on the number of individuals that a particular case must become indistinguishable from. This number defines the level of anonymization. Anonymization by cell suppression does not necessarily prevent inferences from being made from the disclosed data. Preventing inferences may be important to preserve confidentiality. We show that anonymized data sets can preserve descriptive characteristics of the data, but might also be used for making inferences on particular individuals, which is a feature that may not be desirable. The degradation of predictive performance is directly proportional to the degree of anonymity. As an example, we report the effect of anonymization on the predictive performance of a model constructed to estimate the probability of disease given clinical findings.

Effects of data anonymization by cell suppression on descriptive statistics and predictive modeling performance.

PubMed Central

Ohno-Machado, L.; Vinterbo, S. A.; Dreiseitl, S.

2001-01-01

Protecting individual data in disclosed databases is essential. Data anonymization strategies can produce table ambiguation by suppression of selected cells. Using table ambiguation, different degrees of anonymization can be achieved, depending on the number of individuals that a particular case must become indistinguishable from. This number defines the level of anonymization. Anonymization by cell suppression does not necessarily prevent inferences from being made from the disclosed data. Preventing inferences may be important to preserve confidentiality. We show that anonymized data sets can preserve descriptive characteristics of the data, but might also be used for making inferences on particular individuals, which is a feature that may not be desirable. The degradation of predictive performance is directly proportional to the degree of anonymity. As an example, we report the effect of anonymization on the predictive performance of a model constructed to estimate the probability of disease given clinical findings. PMID:11825239

Mood induction effects on motor sequence learning and stop signal reaction time.

PubMed

Greeley, Brian; Seidler, Rachael D

2017-01-01

The neurobiological theory of positive affect proposes that positive mood states may benefit cognitive performance due to an increase of dopamine throughout the brain. However, the results of many positive affect studies are inconsistent; this may be due to individual differences. The relationship between dopamine and performance is not linear, but instead follows an inverted "U" shape. Given this, we hypothesized that individuals with high working memory capacity, a proxy measure for dopaminergic transmission, would not benefit from positive mood induction and in fact performance in dopamine-mediated tasks would decline. In contrast, we predicted that individuals with low working memory capacities would receive the most benefit after positive mood induction. Here, we explored the effect of positive affect on two dopamine-mediated tasks, an explicit serial reaction time sequence learning task and the stop signal task, predicting that an individual's performance is modulated not only by working memory capacity, but also on the type of mood. Improvements in explicit sequence learning from pre- to post-positive mood induction were associated with working memory capacity; performance declined in individuals with higher working memory capacities following positive mood induction, but improved in individuals with lower working memory capacities. This was not the case for negative or neutral mood induction. Moreover, there was no relationship between the change in stop signal reaction time with any of the mood inductions and individual differences in working memory capacity. These results provide partial support for the neurobiological theory of positive affect and highlight the importance of taking into account individual differences in working memory when examining the effects of positive mood induction.

The accuracy of body mass prediction for elderly specimens: Implications for paleoanthropology and legal medicine.

PubMed

Chevalier, Tony; Lefèvre, Philippe; Clarys, Jan Pieter; Beauthier, Jean-Pol

2016-10-01

Different practices in paleoanthropology and legal medicine raise questions concerning the robustness of body mass (BM) prediction. Integrating personal identification from body mass estimation with skeleton is not a classic approach in legal medicine. The originality of our study is the use of an elderly sample in order to push prediction methods to their limits and to discuss about implications in paleoanthropology and legal medicine. The aim is to observe the accuracy of BM prediction in relation to the body mass index (BMI, index of classification) using five femoral head (FH) methods and one shaft (FSH) method. The sample is composed of 41 dry femurs obtained from dissection where age (c. 82 years) and gender are known, and weight (c. 59.5 kg) and height are measured upon admission to the body leg service. We show that the estimation of the mean BM of the elderly sample is not significantly different to the real mean BM when the appropriate formula is used for the femoral head diameter. In fact, the best prediction is obtained with the McHenry formula (1992), which was based on a sample with an equivalent average mass to that of our sample. In comparison, external shaft diameters, which are known to be more influenced by mechanical stimuli than femoral head diameters, yield less satisfactory results with the McHenry formula (1992) for shaft diameters. Based on all the methods used and the distinctive selected sample, overestimation (always observed with the different femoral head methods) can be restricted to 1.1%. The observed overestimation with the shaft method can be restricted to 7%. However, the estimation of individual BM is much less reliable. The BMI has a strong impact on the accuracy of individual BM prediction, and is unquestionably more reliable for individuals with normal BMI (9.6% vs 16.7% for the best prediction error). In this case, the FH method is also the better predictive method but not if we integrate the total sample (i.e., the FSH method is better with more varied BMI). Finally, the estimation of the mean BM of a sample can be used with more confidence compared to the estimation of individual BM. The former is very useful in an evolutionary perspective whereas the latter should be used in keeping with the information gathered on the studied specimen in order to reduce prediction errors. Finally, the BM estimation can be a parameter to consider for personal identification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Writing Anxiety and Motivation on EFL College Students' Self-Evaluative Judgments of Corrective Feedback.

PubMed

Tsao, Jui-Jung; Tseng, Wen-Ta; Wang, Chaochang

2017-04-01

Feedback is regarded as a way to foster students' motivation and to ensure linguistic accuracy. However, mixed findings are reported in the research on written corrective feedback because of its multifaceted nature and its correlations with learners' individual differences. It is necessary, therefore, to conduct further research on corrective feedback from the student's perspective and to examine how individual differences in terms of factors such as writing anxiety and motivation predict learners' self-evaluative judgments of both teacher-corrected and peer-corrected feedback. For this study, 158 Taiwanese college sophomores participated in a survey that comprised three questionnaires. Results demonstrated that intrinsic motivation and different types of writing anxiety predicted English as foreign language learners' evaluative judgments of teacher and peer feedback. The findings have implications for English-writing instruction.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

PubMed Central

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2015-01-01

Background Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Objectives Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Methods Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007–2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. Results CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman’s r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen’s kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. Conclusions The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements. Citation Nøst TH, Breivik K, Wania F, Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

Does the Value of Dynamic Assessment in Predicting End-of-First-Grade Mathematics Performance Differ as a Function of English Language Proficiency?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seethaler, Pamela M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the added value of dynamic assessment (DA) beyond more conventional static measures for predicting individual differences in year-end 1st-grade calculation (CA) and word-problem (WP) performance, as a function of limited English proficiency (LEP) status. At the start of 1st grade, students (129 LEP; 163…

Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor.

PubMed

Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom J; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

2016-01-01

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor. Low ability to voluntarily control attention has previously been associated with anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Attentional control was assessed using the Emotional Attentional Control Scale. In students who were preparing for academic examination, salivary cortisol was assessed before (time 1) and after (time 2) examination. Results showed that lower levels of self-reported emotional attentional control at time 1 (N=90) predicted higher absolute diurnal cortisol secretion and a slower decline in cortisol throughout the day at time 2 (N=71). Difficulty controlling attention during emotional experiences may lead to chronic HPA-axis hyperactivity after prolonged exposure to stress. These results indicate that screening for individual differences may foster prediction of HPA-axis disturbances, paving the way for targeted disorder prevention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of relationship status, mate seeking, and sex on intrasexual competition.

PubMed

Fisher, Maryanne L; Tran, Ulrich S; Voracek, Martin

2008-08-01

Researchers have little explored individuals' perceptions of same-sex attractiveness in terms of the influence of relationship status. By using intrasexual competition as a conceptual framework, the authors predicted that romantically involved individuals would protect their relationship by derogating competitors. Although previous researchers have strongly predicted this result, in the present study the relationship status had a negligible impact on competition, for which relationship commitment, sociosexual orientation, and self-monitoring did not account. Also, among uninvolved individuals, the authors expected those individuals seeking mates would use competitor derogation more than would those individuals not seeking mates, but there was no significant difference. Finally, because the vehicle for this investigation was attractiveness, an area in which women compete, the authors proposed that women would derogate more fiercely than would men. However, the results did not support this hypothesis either. The authors discuss future directions for research.

Uncertainty assessment and implications for data acquisition in support of integrated hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Philip; Doherty, J.; Simmons, Craig T.

2012-07-01

The data set used for calibration of regional numerical models which simulate groundwater flow and vadose zone processes is often dominated by head observations. It is to be expected therefore, that parameters describing vadose zone processes are poorly constrained. A number of studies on small spatial scales explored how additional data types used in calibration constrain vadose zone parameters or reduce predictive uncertainty. However, available studies focused on subsets of observation types and did not jointly account for different measurement accuracies or different hydrologic conditions. In this study, parameter identifiability and predictive uncertainty are quantified in simulation of a 1-D vadose zone soil system driven by infiltration, evaporation and transpiration. The worth of different types of observation data (employed individually, in combination, and with different measurement accuracies) is evaluated by using a linear methodology and a nonlinear Pareto-based methodology under different hydrological conditions. Our main conclusions are (1) Linear analysis provides valuable information on comparative parameter and predictive uncertainty reduction accrued through acquisition of different data types. Its use can be supplemented by nonlinear methods. (2) Measurements of water table elevation can support future water table predictions, even if such measurements inform the individual parameters of vadose zone models to only a small degree. (3) The benefits of including ET and soil moisture observations in the calibration data set are heavily dependent on depth to groundwater. (4) Measurements of groundwater levels, measurements of vadose ET or soil moisture poorly constrain regional groundwater system forcing functions.

Assessing multimedia/multipathway exposures to inorganic arsenic at population and individual level using MERLIN-Expo.

PubMed

Van Holderbeke, Mirja; Fierens, Tine; Standaert, Arnout; Cornelis, Christa; Brochot, Céline; Ciffroy, Philippe; Johansson, Erik; Bierkens, Johan

2016-10-15

In this study, we report on model simulations performed using the newly developed exposure tool, MERLIN-Expo, in order to assess inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure to adults resulting from past emissions by non-ferrous smelters in Belgium (Northern Campine area). Exposure scenarios were constructed to estimate external iAs exposure as well as the toxicologically relevant As (tAs, i.e., iAs, MMA and DMA) body burden in adults living in the vicinity of the former industrial sites as compared to adults living in adjacent areas and a reference area. Two scenarios are discussed: a first scenario studying exposure to iAs at the aggregated population level and a second scenario studying exposure at the individual level for a random sub-sample of subjects in each of the three different study areas. These two scenarios only differ in the type of human related input data (i.e., time-activity data, ingestion rates and consumption patterns) that were used, namely averages (incl. probability density functions, PDFs) in the simulation at population level and subject-specific values in the simulation at individual level. The model predictions are shown to be lower than the corresponding biomonitoring data from the monitoring campaign. Urinary tAs levels in adults, irrespective of the area they lived in, were under-predicted by MERLIN-Expo by 40% on average. The model predictions for individual adults, by contrast, under-predict the biomonitoring data by 7% on average, but with more important under-predictions for subjects at the upper end of exposure. Still, average predicted urinary tAs levels from the simulations at population level and at individual level overlap, and, at least for the current case, lead to similar conclusions. These results constitute a first and partial verification of the model performance of MERLIN-Expo when dealing with iAs in a complex site-specific exposure scenario, and demonstrate the robustness of the modelling tool for these situations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Awake canine fMRI predicts dogs’ preference for praise vs food

PubMed Central

Cook, Peter F.; Prichard, Ashley; Spivak, Mark

2016-01-01

Dogs are hypersocial with humans, and their integration into human social ecology makes dogs a unique model for studying cross-species social bonding. However, the proximal neural mechanisms driving dog–human social interaction are unknown. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging in 15 awake dogs to probe the neural basis for their preferences for social interaction and food reward. In a first experiment, we used the ventral caudate as a measure of intrinsic reward value and compared activation to conditioned stimuli that predicted food, praise or nothing. Relative to the control stimulus, the caudate was significantly more active to the reward-predicting stimuli and showed roughly equal or greater activation to praise vs food in 13 of 15 dogs. To confirm that these differences were driven by the intrinsic value of social praise, we performed a second imaging experiment in which the praise was withheld on a subset of trials. The difference in caudate activation to the receipt of praise, relative to its withholding, was strongly correlated with the differential activation to the conditioned stimuli in the first experiment. In a third experiment, we performed an out-of-scanner choice task in which the dog repeatedly selected food or owner in a Y-maze. The relative caudate activation to food- and praise-predicting stimuli in Experiment 1 was a strong predictor of each dog’s sequence of choices in the Y-maze. Analogous to similar neuroimaging studies of individual differences in human social reward, our findings demonstrate a neural mechanism for preference in domestic dogs that is stable within, but variable between, individuals. Moreover, the individual differences in the caudate responses indicate the potentially higher value of social than food reward for some dogs and may help to explain the apparent efficacy of social interaction in dog training. PMID:27521302

A phenotype of early infancy predicts reactivity of the amygdala in male adults.

PubMed

Schwartz, C E; Kunwar, P S; Greve, D N; Kagan, J; Snidman, N C; Bloch, R B

2012-10-01

One of the central questions that has occupied those disciplines concerned with human development is the nature of continuities and discontinuities from birth to maturity. The amygdala has a central role in the processing of novelty and emotion in the brain. Although there is considerable variability among individuals in the reactivity of the amygdala to novel and emotional stimuli, the origin of these individual differences is not well understood. Four-month old infants called high reactive (HR) demonstrate a distinctive pattern of vigorous motor activity and crying to specific unfamiliar visual, auditory and olfactory stimuli in the laboratory. Low-reactive infants show the complementary pattern. Here, we demonstrate that the HR infant phenotype predicts greater amygdalar reactivity to novel faces almost two decades later in adults. A prediction of individual differences in brain function at maturity can be made on the basis of a single behavioral assessment made in the laboratory at 4 months of age. This is the earliest known human behavioral phenotype that predicts individual differences in patterns of neural activity at maturity. These temperamental differences rooted in infancy may be relevant to understanding individual differences in vulnerability and resilience to clinical psychiatric disorder. Males who were HR infants showed particularly high levels of reactivity to novel faces in the amygdala that distinguished them as adults from all other sex/temperament subgroups, suggesting that their amygdala is particularly prone to engagement by unfamiliar faces. These findings underline the importance of taking gender into account when studying the developmental neurobiology of human temperament and anxiety disorders. The genetic study of behavioral and biologic intermediate phenotypes (or 'endophenotypes') indexing anxiety-proneness offers an important alternative to examining phenotypes based on clinically defined disorder. As the HR phenotype is characterized by specific patterns of reactivity to elemental visual, olfactory and auditory stimuli, well before complex social behaviors such as shyness or fearful interaction with strangers can be observed, it may be closer to underlying neurobiological mechanisms than behavioral profiles observed later in life. This possibility, together with the fact that environmental factors have less time to impact the 4-month phenotype, suggests that this temperamental profile may be a fruitful target for high-risk genetic studies.

Validation of maturity offset in a longitudinal sample of Polish girls.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Kozieł, Sławomir M

2014-01-01

This study attempted to validate an anthropometric equation for predicting age at peak height velocity (PHV) in 198 Polish girls followed longitudinally from 8 to 18 years. Maturity offset (years before or after PHV) was predicted from chronological age, mass, stature, sitting height and estimated leg length at each observation; predicted age at PHV was the difference between age and maturity offset. Actual age at PHV for each girl was derived with Preece-Baines Model 1. Predicted ages at PHV increased from 8 to16 years and varied relative to time before and after actual age at PHV. Predicted and actual ages at PHV did not differ at 9 years, but predicted overestimated actual age at PHV from 10 to 16 years. Girls of contrasting maturity status differed in predicted age at PHV from 8 to 14 years. In conclusion, predicted age at PHV is dependent upon age at prediction and individual differences in actual age at PHV, which limits its utility as an indicator of maturity timing in general and in sport talent programmes. It may have limited applicability as a categorical variable (pre-, post-PHV) among average maturing girls during the interval of the growth spurt, ~11.0-13.0 years.

Questions of time and affect: a person's affectivity profile, time perspective, and well-being.

PubMed

Garcia, Danilo; Sailer, Uta; Nima, Ali Al; Archer, Trevor

2016-01-01

Background. A "balanced" time perspective has been suggested to have a positive influence on well-being: a sentimental and positive view of the past (high Past Positive), a less pessimistic attitude toward the past (low Past Negative), the desire of experiencing pleasure with slight concern for future consequences (high Present Hedonistic), a less fatalistic and hopeless view of the future (low Present Fatalistic), and the ability to find reward in achieving specific long-term goals (high Future). We used the affective profiles model (i.e., combinations of individuals' experience of high/low positive/negative affectivity) to investigate differences between individuals in time perspective dimensions and to investigate if the influence of time perspective dimensions on well-being was moderated by the individual's type of profile. Method. Participants (N = 720) answered to the Positive Affect Negative Affect Schedule, the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory and two measures of well-being: the Temporal Satisfaction with Life Scale and Ryff's Scales of Psychological Well-Being-short version. A Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was conducted to identify differences in time perspective dimensions and well-being among individuals with distinct affective profiles. Four structural equation models (SEM) were used to investigate which time perspective dimensions predicted well-being for individuals in each profile. Results. Comparisons between individuals at the extreme of the affective profiles model suggested that individuals with a self-fulfilling profile (high positive/low negative affect) were characterized by a "balanced" time perspective and higher well-being compared to individuals with a self-destructive profile (low positive/high negative affect). However, a different pattern emerged when individuals who differed in one affect dimension but matched in the other were compared to each other. For instance, decreases in the past negative time perspective dimension lead to high positive affect when negative affect is high (i.e., self-destructive vs. high affective) but to low negative affect when positive affect was high (i.e., high affective vs. self-fulfilling). The moderation analyses showed, for example, that for individuals with a self-destructive profile, psychological well-being was significantly predicted by the past negative, present fatalistic and future time perspectives. Among individuals with a high affective or a self-fulfilling profile, psychological well-being was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic dimension. Conclusions. The interactions found here go beyond the postulation of a "balanced" time perspective being the only way to promote well-being. Instead, we present a more person-centered approach to achieve higher levels of emotional, cognitive, and psychological well-being.

Does Maternal Depression Predict Young Children's Executive Function?--A 4-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Claire; Roman, Gabriela; Hart, Martha J.; Ensor, Rosie

2013-01-01

Background: Building on reports that parental maltreatment and neglect adversely affect young children's executive function (EF), this longitudinal study examined whether exposure to a more common risk factor, mothers' depressive symptoms, predicted individual differences in EF at school-age. Methods: We followed up at age 6 a socially diverse…

Can Self-Reported Preference for Exercise Intensity Predict Physiologically Defined Self-Selected Exercise Intensity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Lind, Erik; Joens-Matre, Roxane R.

2006-01-01

Exercise prescription guidelines emphasize the importance of individual preferences for different intensities, but such preferences have not been studied systematically. This study examined the hypothesis that the preference scale of the Preference for and Tolerance of the Intensity of Exercise Questionnaire would predict self-selected exercise…

Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders.

PubMed

Connors, Brenda L; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J

2013-01-01

There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h interview that permitted detailed and fine-grained observation and coding of signature movements by trained practitioners using MPA. Three months later, these subjects completed four hypothetical decision-making tasks in which the amount of information sought out before coming to a decision, as well as the time spent on the tasks, were under the partial control of the subject. A composite MPA indicator of how a person allocates decision-making actions and motivations to balance both Assertion (exertion of tangible movement effort on the environment to make something occur) and Perspective (through movements that support shaping in the body to perceive and create a suitable viewpoint for action) was highly correlated with the total number of information draws and total response time-individuals high on Assertion reached for less information and had faster response times than those high on Perspective. Discussion focuses on the utility of using movement-based observational measures to capture individual differences in decision-making style and the implications for application in applied settings geared toward investigations of experienced leaders and world statesmen where individuality rules the day.

Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders

PubMed Central

Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

2013-01-01

There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h interview that permitted detailed and fine-grained observation and coding of signature movements by trained practitioners using MPA. Three months later, these subjects completed four hypothetical decision-making tasks in which the amount of information sought out before coming to a decision, as well as the time spent on the tasks, were under the partial control of the subject. A composite MPA indicator of how a person allocates decision-making actions and motivations to balance both Assertion (exertion of tangible movement effort on the environment to make something occur) and Perspective (through movements that support shaping in the body to perceive and create a suitable viewpoint for action) was highly correlated with the total number of information draws and total response time—individuals high on Assertion reached for less information and had faster response times than those high on Perspective. Discussion focuses on the utility of using movement-based observational measures to capture individual differences in decision-making style and the implications for application in applied settings geared toward investigations of experienced leaders and world statesmen where individuality rules the day. PMID:24069012

Predicting grid-size-dependent fracture strains of DP980 with a microstructure-based post-necking model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, G.; Hu, X. H.; Choi, K. S.

Ductile fracture is a local phenomenon, and it is well established that fracture strain levels depend on both stress triaxiality and the resolution (grid size) of strain measurements. Two-dimensional plane strain post-necking models with different representative volume element (RVE) sizes are used to predict the size-dependent fracture strain of a commercial dual-phase steel, DP980. The models are generated from the actual microstructures, and the individual phase flow properties and literature-based individual phase damage parameters for the Johnson-Cook model are used for ferrite and martensite. A monotonic relationship is predicted: the smaller the model size, the higher the fracture strain. Thus,more » a general framework is developed to quantify the size-dependent fracture strains for multiphase materials. In addition to the RVE sizes, the influences of intrinsic microstructure features, i.e., the flow curve and fracture strains of the two constituent phases, on the predicted fracture strains also are examined. Application of the derived fracture strain versus RVE size relationship is demonstrated with large clearance trimming simulations with different element sizes.« less

The Role of Individual Differences and Situational Variables in the Use of Workplace Sexual Identity Management Strategies.

PubMed

Reed, Louren; Leuty, Melanie E

2016-07-01

Examination of individual difference variables have been largely ignored within research on the use of workplace sexual identity management strategies. The current study examined personality traits (extraversion, openness, and neuroticism), facets of sexual identity development (identity confusion, internalized heterosexism), and situational variables (e.g., perceptions of workplace climate and heterosexism) in explaining the use of management strategies, as well as possible interactions between individual and situational factors. Perceptions of the workplace climate toward lesbian and gay individuals significantly related to the use each of the management strategies, and Internalized Heterosexism was found to significantly predict the use of the Explicitly Out strategy. Most interactions between individual difference and situational variables were not supported, with the exception of an interaction between workplace heterosexism and internalized homophobia in explaining the use of the Explicitly Out strategy.

Cross-shift changes in FEV1 in relation to wood dust exposure: the implications of different exposure assessment methods

PubMed Central

Schlunssen, V; Sigsgaard, T; Schaumburg, I; Kromhout, H

2004-01-01

Background: Exposure-response analyses in occupational studies rely on the ability to distinguish workers with regard to exposures of interest. Aims: To evaluate different estimates of current average exposure in an exposure-response analysis on dust exposure and cross-shift decline in FEV1 among woodworkers. Methods: Personal dust samples (n = 2181) as well as data on lung function parameters were available for 1560 woodworkers from 54 furniture industries. The exposure to wood dust for each worker was calculated in eight different ways using individual measurements, group based exposure estimates, a weighted estimate of individual and group based exposure estimates, and predicted values from mixed models. Exposure-response relations on cross-shift changes in FEV1 and exposure estimates were explored. Results: A positive exposure-response relation between average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 was shown for non-smokers only and appeared to be most pronounced among pine workers. In general, the highest slope and standard error (SE) was revealed for grouping by a combination of task and factory size, the lowest slope and SE was revealed for estimates based on individual measurements, with the weighted estimate and the predicted values in between. Grouping by quintiles of average exposure for task and factory combinations revealed low slopes and high SE, despite a high contrast. Conclusion: For non-smokers, average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 were associated in an exposure dependent manner, especially among pine workers. This study confirms the consequences of using different exposure assessment strategies studying exposure-response relations. It is possible to optimise exposure assessment combining information from individual and group based exposure estimates, for instance by applying predicted values from mixed effects models. PMID:15377768

Unique semantic space in the brain of each beholder predicts perceived similarity

PubMed Central

Charest, Ian; Kievit, Rogier A.; Schmitz, Taylor W.; Deca, Diana; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2014-01-01

The unique way in which each of us perceives the world must arise from our brain representations. If brain imaging could reveal an individual’s unique mental representation, it could help us understand the biological substrate of our individual experiential worlds in mental health and disease. However, imaging studies of object vision have focused on commonalities between individuals rather than individual differences and on category averages rather than representations of particular objects. Here we investigate the individually unique component of brain representations of particular objects with functional MRI (fMRI). Subjects were presented with unfamiliar and personally meaningful object images while we measured their brain activity on two separate days. We characterized the representational geometry by the dissimilarity matrix of activity patterns elicited by particular object images. The representational geometry remained stable across scanning days and was unique in each individual in early visual cortex and human inferior temporal cortex (hIT). The hIT representation predicted perceived similarity as reflected in dissimilarity judgments. Importantly, hIT predicted the individually unique component of the judgments when the objects were personally meaningful. Our results suggest that hIT brain representational idiosyncrasies accessible to fMRI are expressed in an individual's perceptual judgments. The unique way each of us perceives the world thus might reflect the individually unique representation in high-level visual areas. PMID:25246586

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Individual differences and reasoning: a study on personality traits.

PubMed

Bensi, Luca; Giusberti, Fiorella; Nori, Raffaella; Gambetti, Elisa

2010-08-01

Personality can play a crucial role in how people reason and decide. Identifying individual differences related to how we actively gather information and use evidence could lead to a better comprehension and predictability of human reasoning. Recent findings have shown that some personality traits are related to similar decision-making patterns showed by people with mental disorders. We performed research with the aim to investigate delusion-proneness, obsessive-like personality, anxiety (trait and state), and reasoning styles in individuals from the general population. We introduced personality trait and state anxiety scores in a regression model to explore specific associations with: (1) amount of data-gathered prior to making a decision; and (2) the use of confirmatory and disconfirmatory evidence. Results showed that all our independent variables were positively or negatively associated with the amount of data collected in order to make simple probabilistic decisions. Anxiety and obsessiveness were the only predictors of the weight attributed to evidence in favour or against a hypothesis. Findings were discussed in relation to theoretical assumptions, predictions, and clinical implications. Personality traits can predict peculiar ways to reason and decide that, in turn, could be involved to some extent in the formation and/or maintenance of psychological disorders.

Modeling individual differences in text reading fluency: a different pattern of predictors for typically developing and dyslexic readers

PubMed Central

Zoccolotti, Pierluigi; De Luca, Maria; Marinelli, Chiara V.; Spinelli, Donatella

2014-01-01

This study was aimed at predicting individual differences in text reading fluency. The basic proposal included two factors, i.e., the ability to decode letter strings (measured by discrete pseudo-word reading) and integration of the various sub-components involved in reading (measured by Rapid Automatized Naming, RAN). Subsequently, a third factor was added to the model, i.e., naming of discrete digits. In order to use homogeneous measures, all contributing variables considered the entire processing of the item, including pronunciation time. The model, which was based on commonality analysis, was applied to data from a group of 43 typically developing readers (11- to 13-year-olds) and a group of 25 chronologically matched dyslexic children. In typically developing readers, both orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components contributed significantly to the overall prediction of text reading fluency. The model prediction was higher (from ca. 37 to 52% of the explained variance) when we included the naming of discrete digits variable, which had a suppressive effect on pseudo-word reading. In the dyslexic readers, the variance explained by the two-factor model was high (69%) and did not change when the third factor was added. The lack of a suppression effect was likely due to the prominent individual differences in poor orthographic decoding of the dyslexic children. Analyses on data from both groups of children were replicated by using patches of colors as stimuli (both in the RAN task and in the discrete naming task) obtaining similar results. We conclude that it is possible to predict much of the variance in text-reading fluency using basic processes, such as orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components, even without taking into consideration higher-order linguistic factors such as lexical, semantic and contextual abilities. The approach validity of using proximal vs. distal causes to predict reading fluency is discussed. PMID:25477856

Rapid Prediction of Hematologic Acute Radiation Syndrome in Radiation Injury Patients Using Peripheral Blood Cell Counts.

PubMed

Port, M; Pieper, B; Knie, T; Dörr, H; Ganser, A; Graessle, D; Meineke, V; Abend, M

2017-08-01

Rapid clinical triage of radiation injury patients is essential for determining appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. We examined the utility of blood cell counts (BCCs) in the first three days postirradiation to predict clinical outcome, specifically for hematologic acute radiation syndrome (HARS). We analyzed BCC test samples from radiation accident victims (n = 135) along with their clinical outcome HARS severity scores (H1-4) using the System for Evaluation and Archiving of Radiation Accidents based on Case Histories (SEARCH) database. Data from nonirradiated individuals (H0, n = 132) were collected from an outpatient facility. We created binary categories for severity scores, i.e., 1 (H0 vs. H1-4), 2 (H0-1 vs. H2-4) and 3 (H0-2 vs. H3-4), to assess the discrimination ability of BCCs using unconditional logistic regression analysis. The test sample contained 454 BCCs from 267 individuals. We validated the discrimination ability on a second independent group comprised of 275 BCCs from 252 individuals originating from SEARCH (HARS 1-4), an outpatient facility (H0) and hospitals (e.g., leukemia patients, H4). Individuals with a score of H0 were easily separated from exposed individuals based on developing lymphopenia and granulocytosis. The separation of H0 and H1-4 became more prominent with increasing hematologic severity scores and time. On day 1, lymphocyte counts were most predictive for discriminating binary categories, followed by granulocytes and thrombocytes. For days 2 and 3, an almost complete separation was achieved when BCCs from different days were combined, supporting the measurement of sequential BCC. We found an almost complete discrimination of H0 vs. irradiated individuals during model validation (negative predictive value, NPV > 94%) for all three days, while the correct prediction of exposed individuals increased from day 1 (positive predictive value, PPV 78-89%) to day 3 (PPV > 90%). The models were unable to provide predictions for 10.9% of the test samples, because the PPVs or NPVs did not reach a 95% likelihood defined as the lower limit for a prediction. We developed a prediction model spreadsheet to provide early and prompt diagnostic predictions and therapeutic recommendations including identification of the worried well, requirement of hospitalization or development of severe hematopoietic syndrome. These results improve the provisional classification of HARS. For the final diagnosis, further procedures (sequential diagnosis, retrospective dosimetry, clinical follow-up, etc.) must be taken into account. Clinical outcome of radiation injury patients can be rapidly predicted within the first three days postirradiation using peripheral BCC.

Why does working memory capacity predict variation in reading comprehension? On the influence of mind wandering and executive attention.

PubMed

McVay, Jennifer C; Kane, Michael J

2012-05-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on 3 WMC span tasks, 7 varied reading-comprehension tasks, and 3 attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during 4 different tasks (2 reading, 2 attention-control). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the 4 tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most important, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension.

Senescence rates and late adulthood reproductive success are strongly influenced by personality in a long-lived seabird

PubMed Central

Patrick, Samantha C.; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-01-01

Studies are increasingly demonstrating that individuals differ in their rate of ageing, and this is postulated to emerge from a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Recent theory predicts a correlation between individual personality and life-history strategy, and from this comes the prediction that personality may predict the intensity of senescence. Here we show that boldness correlates with reproductive success and foraging behaviour in wandering albatrosses, with strong sex-specific differences. Shy males show a strong decline in reproductive performance with age, and bold females have lower reproductive success in later adulthood. In both sexes, bolder birds have longer foraging trips and gain more mass per trip as they get older. However, the benefit of this behaviour appears to differ between the sexes, such that it is only matched by high reproductive success in males. Together our results suggest that personality linked foraging adaptations with age are strongly sex-specific in their fitness benefits and that the impact of boldness on senescence is linked to ecological parameters. PMID:25473008

Inertia: the discrepancy between individual and common good in dispersal and prospecting behaviour.

PubMed

Delgado, María del Mar; Ratikainen, Irja I; Kokko, Hanna

2011-08-01

The group selection debate of the 1960s made it clear that evolution does not necessarily increase population performance. Individuals can be selected to have traits that diminish a common good and make population persistence difficult. At the extreme, the discrepancy between levels of selection is predicted to make traits evolve towards values at which a population can no longer persist (evolutionary suicide). Dispersal and prospecting are prime examples of traits that have a strong influence on population persistence under environmental and demographic stochasticity. Theory predicts that an 'optimal' dispersal strategy from a population point of view can differ considerably from that produced by individual-level selection. Because dispersal is frequently risky or otherwise costly, individuals are often predicted to disperse less than would be ideal for population performance (persistence or size). We define this discrepancy as 'inertia' and examine current knowledge of its occurrence and effects on population dynamics in nature. We argue that inertia is potentially widespread but that a framework is currently lacking for predicting precisely the extent to which it has a real influence on population persistence. The opposite of inertia, 'hypermobility' (more dispersal by individuals than would maximize population performance) remains a possibility: it is known that highest dispersal rates do not lead to best expected population performance, and examples of such high dispersal evolving exist at least in the theoretical literature. We also show, by considering prospecting behaviour, that similar issues arise in species with advanced cognitive and learning abilities. Individual prospecting strategies and the information acquired during dispersal are known to influence the decisions and therefore the fate of individuals and, as a corollary, populations. Again, the willingness of individuals to sample environments might evolve to levels that are not optimal for populations. This conflict can take intriguing forms. For example, better cognitive abilities of individuals may not always lead to better population-level performance. Simulation studies have found that 'blind' dispersal can lead to better connected metapopulations than cognitively more advanced habitat choice rules: the latter can lead to too many individuals sticking to nearby safe habitat. The study of the mismatch between individual and population fitness should not be a mere intellectual exercise. Population managers typically need to take a population-level view of performance, which may necessitate human intervention if it differs from what is selected for. We conclude that our knowledge of inertia and hypermobility would advance faster if theoretical studies--without much additional effort--quantified the population consequences of the evolving traits and compared this with hypothetical (not selectively favoured) dispersal rules, and if empirical studies were similarly conducted with the differing levels of selection in mind. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

An ecological framework for temporal and individual differences in color preferences.

PubMed

Schloss, Karen B; Palmer, Stephen E

2017-12-01

There are well-known and extensive differences in color preferences between individuals, but there are also within-individual differences from one time to another. Despite the seeming independence between these individual and temporal effects, we propose that they have the same underlying cause: people's ecological experiences with color-associated objects and events. Our approach is motivated by the Ecological Valence Theory (EVT; Palmer & Schloss, 2010) which states that preference for a given color is determined by the combined valence (liking/disliking) of all objects and events associated with that color. We define three ecologically-based hypotheses for explaining temporal and individual differences in color preferences concerning: (1) differences in object valences, (2) differences in color-object associations, and (3) differences in object activations in the mind when preferences are measured. We review prior studies that support these hypotheses and raise open research questions about untested predictions. We also extend the computational framework of the EVT by defining a single weighted average equation that captures both individual and temporal differences in color preferences. Finally, we consider other factors that potentially contribute to color preferences, including abstract symbolic associations, color in design, and psychophysical and/or physiological factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved age determination of blood and teeth samples using a selected set of DNA methylation markers

PubMed Central

Kamalandua, Aubeline

2015-01-01

Age estimation from DNA methylation markers has seen an exponential growth of interest, not in the least from forensic scientists. The current published assays, however, can still be improved by lowering the number of markers in the assay and by providing more accurate models to predict chronological age. From the published literature we selected 4 age-associated genes (ASPA, PDE4C, ELOVL2, and EDARADD) and determined CpG methylation levels from 206 blood samples of both deceased and living individuals (age range: 0–91 years). This data was subsequently used to compare prediction accuracy with both linear and non-linear regression models. A quadratic regression model in which the methylation levels of ELOVL2 were squared showed the highest accuracy with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between chronological age and predicted age of 3.75 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.95. No difference in accuracy was observed for samples obtained either from living and deceased individuals or between the 2 genders. In addition, 29 teeth from different individuals (age range: 19–70 years) were analyzed using the same set of markers resulting in a MAD of 4.86 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.74. Cross validation of the results obtained from blood samples demonstrated the robustness and reproducibility of the assay. In conclusion, the set of 4 CpG DNA methylation markers is capable of producing highly accurate age predictions for blood samples from deceased and living individuals PMID:26280308

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats

PubMed Central

Perez-Leighton, Claudio; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J.; Kotz, Catherine M.

2015-01-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement can promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. PMID:24912135

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats.

PubMed

Perez-Leighton, Claudio E; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J; Kotz, Catherine M

2014-08-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement may promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest that the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deriving the species richness distribution of Geotrupinae (Coleoptera: Scarabaeoidea) in Mexico from the overlap of individual model predictions.

PubMed

Trotta-Moreu, Nuria; Lobo, Jorge M

2010-02-01

Predictions from individual distribution models for Mexican Geotrupinae species were overlaid to obtain a total species richness map for this group. A database (GEOMEX) that compiles available information from the literature and from several entomological collections was used. A Maximum Entropy method (MaxEnt) was applied to estimate the distribution of each species, taking into account 19 climatic variables as predictors. For each species, suitability values ranging from 0 to 100 were calculated for each grid cell on the map, and 21 different thresholds were used to convert these continuous suitability values into binary ones (presence-absence). By summing all of the individual binary maps, we generated a species richness prediction for each of the considered thresholds. The number of species and faunal composition thus predicted for each Mexican state were subsequently compared with those observed in a preselected set of well-surveyed states. Our results indicate that the sum of individual predictions tends to overestimate species richness but that the selection of an appropriate threshold can reduce this bias. Even under the most optimistic prediction threshold, the mean species richness error is 61% of the observed species richness, with commission errors being significantly more common than omission errors (71 +/- 29 versus 18 +/- 10%). The estimated distribution of Geotrupinae species richness in Mexico in discussed, although our conclusions are preliminary and contingent on the scarce and probably biased available data.

Severity of Hyperacusis Predicts Individual Differences in Speech Perception in Williams Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elsabbagh, M.; Cohen, H.; Cohen, M.; Rosen, S.; Karmiloff-Smith, A.

2011-01-01

Background: Williams Syndrome (WS) is a neurodevelopmental disorder of genetic origin, characterised by relative proficiency in language in the face of serious impairment in several other domains. Individuals with WS display an unusual sensitivity to noise, known as hyperacusis. Methods: In this study, we examined the extent to which hyperacusis…

Living with Crime: The Implications of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Suburban Location.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alba, Richard D.; And Others

1994-01-01

In New Jersey suburban communities, blacks were most exposed to property and violent crime and whites and Asians were least exposed. Individual characteristics such as home ownership, income, and education did predict crime level of an individual's community, but contextual factors (community racial composition, poverty, and population size)…

A probabilistic model to predict clinical phenotypic traits from genome sequencing.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Ching; Douville, Christopher; Wang, Cheng; Niknafs, Noushin; Yeo, Grace; Beleva-Guthrie, Violeta; Carter, Hannah; Stenson, Peter D; Cooper, David N; Li, Biao; Mooney, Sean; Karchin, Rachel

2014-09-01

Genetic screening is becoming possible on an unprecedented scale. However, its utility remains controversial. Although most variant genotypes cannot be easily interpreted, many individuals nevertheless attempt to interpret their genetic information. Initiatives such as the Personal Genome Project (PGP) and Illumina's Understand Your Genome are sequencing thousands of adults, collecting phenotypic information and developing computational pipelines to identify the most important variant genotypes harbored by each individual. These pipelines consider database and allele frequency annotations and bioinformatics classifications. We propose that the next step will be to integrate these different sources of information to estimate the probability that a given individual has specific phenotypes of clinical interest. To this end, we have designed a Bayesian probabilistic model to predict the probability of dichotomous phenotypes. When applied to a cohort from PGP, predictions of Gilbert syndrome, Graves' disease, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and various blood groups were accurate, as individuals manifesting the phenotype in question exhibited the highest, or among the highest, predicted probabilities. Thirty-eight PGP phenotypes (26%) were predicted with area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC)>0.7, and 23 (15.8%) of these were statistically significant, based on permutation tests. Moreover, in a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) blinded prediction experiment, the models were used to match 77 PGP genomes to phenotypic profiles, generating the most accurate prediction of 16 submissions, according to an independent assessor. Although the models are currently insufficiently accurate for diagnostic utility, we expect their performance to improve with growth of publicly available genomics data and model refinement by domain experts.

Misleading first impressions: different for different facial images of the same person.

PubMed

Todorov, Alexander; Porter, Jenny M

2014-07-01

Studies on first impressions from facial appearance have rapidly proliferated in the past decade. Almost all of these studies have relied on a single face image per target individual, and differences in impressions have been interpreted as originating in stable physiognomic differences between individuals. Here we show that images of the same individual can lead to different impressions, with within-individual image variance comparable to or exceeding between-individuals variance for a variety of social judgments (Experiment 1). We further show that preferences for images shift as a function of the context (e.g., selecting an image for online dating vs. a political campaign; Experiment 2), that preferences are predictably biased by the selection of the images (e.g., an image fitting a political campaign vs. a randomly selected image; Experiment 3), and that these biases are evident after extremely brief (40-ms) presentation of the images (Experiment 4). We discuss the implications of these findings for studies on the accuracy of first impressions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Does Feedback-Related Brain Response during Reinforcement Learning Predict Socio-motivational (In-)dependence in Adolescence?

PubMed Central

Raufelder, Diana; Boehme, Rebecca; Romund, Lydia; Golde, Sabrina; Lorenz, Robert C.; Gleich, Tobias; Beck, Anne

2016-01-01

This multi-methodological study applied functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate neural activation in a group of adolescent students (N = 88) during a probabilistic reinforcement learning task. We related patterns of emerging brain activity and individual learning rates to socio-motivational (in-)dependence manifested in four different motivation types (MTs): (1) peer-dependent MT, (2) teacher-dependent MT, (3) peer-and-teacher-dependent MT, (4) peer-and-teacher-independent MT. A multinomial regression analysis revealed that the individual learning rate predicts students’ membership to the independent MT, or the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Additionally, the striatum, a brain region associated with behavioral adaptation and flexibility, showed increased learning-related activation in students with motivational independence. Moreover, the prefrontal cortex, which is involved in behavioral control, was more active in students of the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Overall, this study offers new insights into the interplay of motivation and learning with (1) a focus on inter-individual differences in the role of peers and teachers as source of students’ individual motivation and (2) its potential neurobiological basis. PMID:27199873

Unique and Persistent Individual Patterns of Brain Activity Across Different Memory Retrieval Tasks

PubMed Central

Miller, Michael B.; Donovan, Christa-Lynn; Van Horn, John D.; German, Elaine; Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Wolford, George L.

2009-01-01

Fourteen subjects were scanned in two fMRI sessions separated by several months. During each session, subjects performed an episodic retrieval task, a semantic retrieval task, and a working memory task. We found that 1) despite extensive intersubject variability in the pattern of activity across the whole brain, individual activity patterns were stable over time, 2) activity patterns of the same individual performing different tasks were more similar than activity patterns of different individuals performing the same task, and 3) that individual differences in decision criterion on a recognition test predicted the degree of similarity between any two individuals’ patterns of brain activity, but individual differences in memory accuracy or similarity in structural anatomy did not. These results imply that the exclusive use of group maps may be ineffective in profiling the pattern of activations for a given task. This may be particularly true for a task like episodic retrieval, which is relatively strategic and can involve widely-distributed specialized processes that are peripheral to the actual retrieval of stored information. Further, these processes may be differentially engaged depending on individual differences in cognitive processing and/or physiology. PMID:19540922

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

Medial prefrontal-hippocampal connectivity during emotional memory encoding predicts individual differences in the loss of associative memory specificity.

PubMed

Berkers, Ruud M W J; Klumpers, Floris; Fernández, Guillén

2016-10-01

Emotionally charged items are often remembered better, whereas a paradoxical loss of specificity is found for associative emotional information (specific memory). The balance between specific and generalized emotional memories appears to show large individual differences, potentially related to differences in (the risk for) affective disorders that are characterized by 'overgeneralized' emotional memories. Here, we investigate the neural underpinnings of individual differences in emotional associative memory. A large group of healthy male participants were scanned while encoding associations of face-photographs and written occupational identities that were of either neutral ('driver') or negative ('murderer') valence. Subsequently, memory was tested by prompting participants to retrieve the occupational identities corresponding to each face. Whereas in both valence categories a similar amount of faces was labeled correctly with 'neutral' and 'negative' identities, (gist memory), specific associations were found to be less accurately remembered when the occupational identity was negative compared to neutral (specific memory). This pattern of results suggests reduced memory specificity for associations containing a negatively valenced component. The encoding of these negative associations was paired with a selective increase in medial prefrontal cortex activity and medial prefrontal-hippocampal connectivity. Individual differences in valence-specific neural connectivity were predictive of valence-specific reduction of memory specificity. The relationship between loss of emotional memory specificity and medial prefrontal-hippocampal connectivity is in line with the hypothesized role of a medial prefrontal-hippocampal circuit in regulating memory specificity, and warrants further investigations in individuals displaying 'overgeneralized' emotional memories. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Co-Development of Skill at and Preference for Use of Retrieval-Based Processes for Solving Addition Problems: Individual and Sex Differences from First to Sixth Grade

PubMed Central

Bailey, Drew H.; Littlefield, Andrew; Geary, David C.

2012-01-01

The ability to retrieve basic arithmetic facts from long-term memory contributes to individual and perhaps sex differences in mathematics achievement. The current study tracked the co-development of preference for using retrieval over other strategies to solve single-digit addition problems, independent of accuracy, and skilled use of retrieval (i.e., accuracy and RT) from first to sixth grade, inclusive (n = 311). Accurate retrieval in first grade was related to working memory capacity and intelligence and predicted a preference for retrieval in second grade. In later grades, the relation between skill and preference changed such that preference in one grade predicted accuracy and RT in the next, as RT and accuracy continued to predict future gains in preference. In comparison to girls, boys had a consistent preference for retrieval over other strategies and had faster retrieval speeds, but the sex difference in retrieval accuracy varied across grades. Results indicate ability influences early skilled retrieval but both practice and skill influence each other in a feedback loop later in development, and provide insights into the source of the sex difference in problem solving approaches. PMID:22704036

Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

PubMed

Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

2016-07-01

Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than they are in others in predicting disease spread. Am. J. Primatol. 78:767-779, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Contribution of strategy use to performance on complex and simple span tasks.

PubMed

Bailey, Heather; Dunlosky, John; Kane, Michael J

2011-04-01

Simple and complex span tasks are widely thought to measure related but separable memory constructs. Recently, however, research has demonstrated that simple and complex span tasks may tap, in part, the same construct because both similarly predict performance on measures of fluid intelligence (Gf) when the number of items retrieved from secondary memory (SM) is equated (Unsworth & Engle, Journal of Memory and Language 54:68-80 2006). Two studies (n = 105 and n = 152) evaluated whether retrieval from SM is influenced by individual differences in the use of encoding strategies during span tasks. Results demonstrated that, after equating the number of items retrieved from SM, simple and complex span performance similarly predicted Gf performance, but rates of effective strategy use did not mediate the span-Gf relationships. Moreover, at the level of individual differences, effective strategy use was more highly related to complex span performance than to simple span performance. Thus, even though individual differences in effective strategy use influenced span performance on trials that required retrieval from SM, strategic behavior at encoding cannot account for the similarities between simple and complex span tasks.

Individual differences in nucleus accumbens activity to food and sexual images predict weight gain and sexual behavior.

PubMed

Demos, Kathryn E; Heatherton, Todd F; Kelley, William M

2012-04-18

Failures of self-regulation are common, leading to many of the most vexing problems facing contemporary society, from overeating and obesity to impulsive sexual behavior and STDs. One reason that people may be prone to engaging in unwanted behaviors is heightened sensitivity to cues related to those behaviors; people may overeat because of hyperresponsiveness to food cues, addicts may relapse following exposure to their drug of choice, and some people might engage in impulsive sexual activity because they are easily aroused by erotic stimuli. An open question is the extent to which individual differences in neural cue reactivity relate to actual behavioral outcomes. Here we show that individual differences in human reward-related brain activity in the nucleus accumbens to food and sexual images predict subsequent weight gain and sexual activity 6 months later. These findings suggest that heightened reward responsivity in the brain to food and sexual cues is associated with indulgence in overeating and sexual activity, respectively, and provide evidence for a common neural mechanism associated with appetitive behaviors.

Individual differences in proactive interference in verbal and visuospatial working memory.

PubMed

Lilienthal, Lindsey

2017-09-01

Proactive interference (PI) has been shown to affect working memory (WM) span as well as the predictive utility of WM span measures. However, most of the research on PI has been conducted using verbal memory items, and much less is known about the role of PI in the visuospatial domain. In order to further explore this issue, the present study used a within-subjects manipulation of PI that alternated clusters of trials with verbal and visuospatial to-be-remembered items. Although PI was shown to build and release across trials similarly in the two domains, important differences also were observed. The ability of verbal WM to predict performance on a measure of fluid intelligence was significantly affected by the amount of PI present, consistent with past research, but this proved not to be the case for visuospatial WM. Further, individuals' susceptibility to PI in one domain was relatively independent of their susceptibility in the other domain, suggesting that, contrary to some theories of executive function, individual differences in PI susceptibility may not be domain-general.

Strategies for Selecting Routes through Real-World Environments: Relative Topography, Initial Route Straightness, and Cardinal Direction

PubMed Central

Brunyé, Tad T.; Collier, Zachary A.; Cantelon, Julie; Holmes, Amanda; Wood, Matthew D.; Linkov, Igor; Taylor, Holly A.

2015-01-01

Previous research has demonstrated that route planners use several reliable strategies for selecting between alternate routes. Strategies include selecting straight rather than winding routes leaving an origin, selecting generally south- rather than north-going routes, and selecting routes that avoid traversal of complex topography. The contribution of this paper is characterizing the relative influence and potential interactions of these strategies. We also examine whether individual differences would predict any strategy reliance. Results showed evidence for independent and additive influences of all three strategies, with a strong influence of topography and initial segment straightness, and relatively weak influence of cardinal direction. Additively, routes were also disproportionately selected when they traversed relatively flat regions, had relatively straight initial segments, and went generally south rather than north. Two individual differences, extraversion and sense of direction, predicted the extent of some effects. Under real-world conditions navigators indeed consider a route’s initial straightness, cardinal direction, and topography, but these cues differ in relative influence and vary in their application across individuals. PMID:25992685

Individual differences affecting caffeine intake. Analysis of consumption behaviours for different times of day and caffeine sources.

PubMed

Penolazzi, Barbara; Natale, Vincenzo; Leone, Luigi; Russo, Paolo Maria

2012-06-01

The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the individual variables contributing to determine the high variability in the consumption behaviours of caffeine, a psychoactive substance which is still poorly investigated in comparison with other drugs. The effects of a large set of specific personality traits (i.e., Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking, Anxiety, Reward Sensitivity and Circadian Preference) were compared along with some relevant socio-demographic variables (i.e., gender and age) and cigarette smoking behaviour. Analyses revealed that daily caffeine intake was significantly higher for males, older people, participants smoking more cigarettes and showing higher scores on Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking and a facet of Reward Sensitivity. However, more detailed analyses showed that different patterns of individual variables predicted caffeine consumption when the times of day and the caffeine sources were considered. The present results suggest that such detailed analyses are required to detect the critical predictive variables that could be obscured when only total caffeine intake during the entire day is considered. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Between-person and within-person associations among processing speed, attention switching, and working memory in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Stawski, Robert S; Sliwinski, Martin J; Hofer, Scott M

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Theories of cognitive aging predict associations among processes that transpire within individuals, but are often tested by examining between-person relationships. The authors provide an empirical demonstration of how associations among measures of processing speed, attention switching, and working memory are different when considered between persons versus within persons over time. A sample of 108 older adults (M (age) = 80.8, range = 66-95) and 68 younger adults (M (age) = 20.2, range = 18-24) completed measures of processing speed, attention switching, and working memory on six occasions over a 14-day period. Multilevel modeling was used to examine processing speed and attention switching performance as predictors of working memory performance simultaneously across days (within-person) and across individuals (between-person). The findings indicates that simple comparison and response speed predicted working memory better than attention switching between persons, whereas attention switching predicted working memory better than simple comparison and response speed within persons over time. Furthermore, the authors did not observe strong evidence of age differences in these associations either within or between persons. The findings of the current study suggest that processing speed is important for understanding between-person and age-related differences in working memory, whereas attention switching is more important for understanding within-person variation in working memory. The authors conclude that theories of cognitive aging should be evaluated by analysis of within-person processes, not exclusively age-related individual differences.

Between-Person and Within-Person Associations among Processing Speed, Attention Switching and Working Memory in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Stawski, Robert S.; Sliwinski, Martin J.; Hofer, Scott M.

2013-01-01

Background/Study Context Theories of cognitive aging predict associations among processes that transpire within individuals, but are often tested by examining between-person relationships. The authors provide an empirical demonstration of how associations among measures of processing speed, attention switching, and working memory are different when considered between persons versus within persons over time. Methods A sample of 108 older adults (Mage: 80.8, range: 66–95) and 68 younger adults (Mage: 20.2, range:18–24) completed measures of processing speed, attention switching, and working memory on six occasions over a 14-day period. Multilevel modeling was used to examine processing speed and attention switching performance as predictors of working memory performance simultaneously across days (within-person) and across individuals (between-person). Results The findings indicates that simple comparison and response speed predicted working memory better than attention switching between persons, whereas attention switching predicted working memory better than simple comparison and response speed within persons over time. Furthermore, the authors did not observe strong evidence of age differences in these associations either within or between persons. Conclusion The findings of the current study suggest that processing speed is important for understanding between-person and age-related differences in working memory, whereas attention switching is more important for understanding within-person variation in working memory. The authors conclude that theories of cognitive aging should be evaluated by analysis of within-person processes, not exclusively age-related individual differences. PMID:23421639

Not all trust is created equal: dispositional and history-based trust in human-automation interactions.

PubMed

Merritt, Stephanie M; Ilgen, Daniel R

2008-04-01

We provide an empirical demonstration of the importance of attending to human user individual differences in examinations of trust and automation use. Past research has generally supported the notions that machine reliability predicts trust in automation, and trust in turn predicts automation use. However, links between user personality and perceptions of the machine with trust in automation have not been empirically established. On our X-ray screening task, 255 students rated trust and made automation use decisions while visually searching for weapons in X-ray images of luggage. We demonstrate that individual differences affect perceptions of machine characteristics when actual machine characteristics are constant, that perceptions account for 52% of trust variance above the effects of actual characteristics, and that perceptions mediate the effects of actual characteristics on trust. Importantly, we also demonstrate that when administered at different times, the same six trust items reflect two types of trust (dispositional trust and history-based trust) and that these two trust constructs are differentially related to other variables. Interactions were found among user characteristics, machine characteristics, and automation use. Our results suggest that increased specificity in the conceptualization and measurement of trust is required, future researchers should assess user perceptions of machine characteristics in addition to actual machine characteristics, and incorporation of user extraversion and propensity to trust machines can increase prediction of automation use decisions. Potential applications include the design of flexible automation training programs tailored to individuals who differ in systematic ways.

Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

PubMed Central

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

2014-01-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

PubMed

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

2014-03-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.

The contribution of phonological knowledge, memory, and language background to reading comprehension in deaf populations

PubMed Central

Hirshorn, Elizabeth A.; Dye, Matthew W. G.; Hauser, Peter; Supalla, Ted R.; Bavelier, Daphne

2015-01-01

While reading is challenging for many deaf individuals, some become proficient readers. Little is known about the component processes that support reading comprehension in these individuals. Speech-based phonological knowledge is one of the strongest predictors of reading comprehension in hearing individuals, yet its role in deaf readers is controversial. This could reflect the highly varied language backgrounds among deaf readers as well as the difficulty of disentangling the relative contribution of phonological versus orthographic knowledge of spoken language, in our case ‘English,’ in this population. Here we assessed the impact of language experience on reading comprehension in deaf readers by recruiting oral deaf individuals, who use spoken English as their primary mode of communication, and deaf native signers of American Sign Language. First, to address the contribution of spoken English phonological knowledge in deaf readers, we present novel tasks that evaluate phonological versus orthographic knowledge. Second, the impact of this knowledge, as well as memory measures that rely differentially on phonological (serial recall) and semantic (free recall) processing, on reading comprehension was evaluated. The best predictor of reading comprehension differed as a function of language experience, with free recall being a better predictor in deaf native signers than in oral deaf. In contrast, the measures of English phonological knowledge, independent of orthographic knowledge, best predicted reading comprehension in oral deaf individuals. These results suggest successful reading strategies differ across deaf readers as a function of their language experience, and highlight a possible alternative route to literacy in deaf native signers. Highlights: 1. Deaf individuals vary in their orthographic and phonological knowledge of English as a function of their language experience. 2. Reading comprehension was best predicted by different factors in oral deaf and deaf native signers. 3. Free recall memory (primacy effect) better predicted reading comprehension in deaf native signers as compared to oral deaf or hearing individuals. 4. Language experience should be taken into account when considering cognitive processes that mediate reading in deaf individuals. PMID:26379566

Prediction of individual response to anticancer therapy: historical and future perspectives.

PubMed

Unger, Florian T; Witte, Irene; David, Kerstin A

2015-02-01

Since the introduction of chemotherapy for cancer treatment in the early 20th century considerable efforts have been made to maximize drug efficiency and at the same time minimize side effects. As there is a great interpatient variability in response to chemotherapy, the development of predictive biomarkers is an ambitious aim for the rapidly growing research area of personalized molecular medicine. The individual prediction of response will improve treatment and thus increase survival and life quality of patients. In the past, cell cultures were used as in vitro models to predict in vivo response to chemotherapy. Several in vitro chemosensitivity assays served as tools to measure miscellaneous endpoints such as DNA damage, apoptosis and cytotoxicity or growth inhibition. Twenty years ago, the development of high-throughput technologies, e.g. cDNA microarrays enabled a more detailed analysis of drug responses. Thousands of genes were screened and expression levels were correlated to drug responses. In addition, mutation analysis became more and more important for the prediction of therapeutic success. Today, as research enters the area of -omics technologies, identification of signaling pathways is a tool to understand molecular mechanism underlying drug resistance. Combining new tissue models, e.g. 3D organoid cultures with modern technologies for biomarker discovery will offer new opportunities to identify new drug targets and in parallel predict individual responses to anticancer therapy. In this review, we present different currently used chemosensitivity assays including 2D and 3D cell culture models and several -omics approaches for the discovery of predictive biomarkers. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of these assays and biomarkers to predict the clinical outcome of individual patients and future perspectives.

Validation of self-reported figural drawing scales against anthropometric measurements in adults.

PubMed

Dratva, Julia; Bertelsen, Randi; Janson, Christer; Johannessen, Ane; Benediktsdóttir, Bryndis; Bråbäck, Lennart; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Forsberg, Bertil; Gislason, Thorarinn; Jarvis, Debbie; Jogi, Rain; Lindberg, Eva; Norback, Dan; Omenaas, Ernst; Skorge, Trude D; Sigsgaard, Torben; Toren, Kjell; Waatevik, Marie; Wieslander, Gundula; Schlünssen, Vivi; Svanes, Cecilie; Real, Francisco Gomez

2016-08-01

The aim of the present study was to validate figural drawing scales depicting extremely lean to extremely obese subjects to obtain proxies for BMI and waist circumference in postal surveys. Reported figural scales and anthropometric data from a large population-based postal survey were validated with measured anthropometric data from the same individuals by means of receiver-operating characteristic curves and a BMI prediction model. Adult participants in a Scandinavian cohort study first recruited in 1990 and followed up twice since. Individuals aged 38-66 years with complete data for BMI (n 1580) and waist circumference (n 1017). Median BMI and waist circumference increased exponentially with increasing figural scales. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses showed a high predictive ability to identify individuals with BMI > 25·0 kg/m2 in both sexes. The optimal figural scales for identifying overweight or obese individuals with a correct detection rate were 4 and 5 in women, and 5 and 6 in men, respectively. The prediction model explained 74 % of the variance among women and 62 % among men. Predicted BMI differed only marginally from objectively measured BMI. Figural drawing scales explained a large part of the anthropometric variance in this population and showed a high predictive ability for identifying overweight/obese subjects. These figural scales can be used with confidence as proxies of BMI and waist circumference in settings where objective measures are not feasible.

Neurocognitive Function and State Cognitive Stress Appraisal Predict Cortisol Reactivity to an Acute Psychosocial Stressor in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Slattery, Marcia J.; Grieve, Adam J.; Ames, Michelle E.; Armstrong, Jeffrey M.; Essex, Marilyn J.

2014-01-01

Stress and associated alterations in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) function have deleterious impacts on the development of multiple mental and physical health problems. Prior research has aimed to identify individuals most at risk for the development of these stress-related maladies by examining factors that may contribute to inter-individual differences in HPA responses to acute stress. The objectives of this study were to investigate, in adolescents, 1) whether differences in neurocognitive abilities influenced cortisol reactivity to an acute stressor, 2) whether internalizing psychiatric disorders influenced this relationship, and 3) whether acute cognitive stress-appraisal mechanisms mediated an association between neurocognitive function and cortisol reactivity. Subjects were 70 adolescents from a community sample who underwent standardized neurocognitive assessments of IQ, achievement, and declarative memory measures at mean age 14 and whose physiological and behavioral responses to a standardized psychosocial stress paradigm (Trier Social Stress Test, TSST) were assessed at mean age 18. Results showed that, among all adolescents, lower nonverbal memory performance predicted lower cortisol reactivity. In addition, internalizing disorders interacted with verbal memory such that the association with cortisol reactivity was strongest for adolescents with internalizing disorders. Finally, lower secondary cognitive appraisal of coping in anticipation of the TSST independently predicted lower cortisol reactivity but did not mediate the neurocognitive–cortisol relationship. Findings suggest that declarative memory may contribute to inter-individual differences in acute cortisol reactivity in adolescents, internalizing disorders may influence this relationship, and cognitive stress appraisal also predicts cortisol reactivity. Developmental, research, and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:23253895

Ant colony optimization algorithm for interpretable Bayesian classifiers combination: application to medical predictions.

PubMed

Bouktif, Salah; Hanna, Eileen Marie; Zaki, Nazar; Abu Khousa, Eman

2014-01-01

Prediction and classification techniques have been well studied by machine learning researchers and developed for several real-word problems. However, the level of acceptance and success of prediction models are still below expectation due to some difficulties such as the low performance of prediction models when they are applied in different environments. Such a problem has been addressed by many researchers, mainly from the machine learning community. A second problem, principally raised by model users in different communities, such as managers, economists, engineers, biologists, and medical practitioners, etc., is the prediction models' interpretability. The latter is the ability of a model to explain its predictions and exhibit the causality relationships between the inputs and the outputs. In the case of classification, a successful way to alleviate the low performance is to use ensemble classiers. It is an intuitive strategy to activate collaboration between different classifiers towards a better performance than individual classier. Unfortunately, ensemble classifiers method do not take into account the interpretability of the final classification outcome. It even worsens the original interpretability of the individual classifiers. In this paper we propose a novel implementation of classifiers combination approach that does not only promote the overall performance but also preserves the interpretability of the resulting model. We propose a solution based on Ant Colony Optimization and tailored for the case of Bayesian classifiers. We validate our proposed solution with case studies from medical domain namely, heart disease and Cardiotography-based predictions, problems where interpretability is critical to make appropriate clinical decisions. The datasets, Prediction Models and software tool together with supplementary materials are available at http://faculty.uaeu.ac.ae/salahb/ACO4BC.htm.

Rats classified as low or high cocaine locomotor responders: A unique model involving striatal dopamine transporters that predicts cocaine addiction-like behaviors

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Nelson, Anna M.; Mandt, Bruce H.; Larson, Gaynor A.; Rorabaugh, Jacki M.; Ng, Christopher M.C.; Barcomb, Kelsey M.; Richards, Toni L.; Allen, Richard M.; Zahniser, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

Individual differences are a hallmark of drug addiction. Here, we describe a rat model based on differential initial responsiveness to low dose cocaine. Despite similar brain cocaine levels, individual outbred Sprague-Dawley rats exhibit markedly different magnitudes of acute cocaine-induced locomotor activity and, thereby, can be classified as low or high cocaine responders (LCRs or HCRs). LCRs and HCRs differ in drug-induced, but not novelty-associated, hyperactivity. LCRs have higher basal numbers of striatal dopamine transporters (DATs) than HCRs and exhibit marginal cocaine inhibition of in vivo DAT activity and cocaine-induced increases in extracellular DA. Importantly, lower initial cocaine response predicts greater locomotor sensitization, conditioned place preference and greater motivation to self-administer cocaine following low dose acquisition. Further, outbred Long-Evans rats classified as LCRs, versus HCRs, are more sensitive to cocaine’s discriminative stimulus effects. Overall, results to date with the LCR/HCR model underscore the contribution of striatal DATs to individual differences in initial cocaine responsiveness and the value of assessing the influence of initial drug response on subsequent expression of addiction-like behaviors. PMID:23850581

Impulsivity moderates the association between racial discrimination and alcohol problems.

PubMed

Latzman, Robert D; Chan, Wing Yi; Shishido, Yuri

2013-12-01

Alcohol use among university students is a serious public health concern, particularly among minority students who may use alcohol to cope with experiences of racial discrimination. Although the impact of racial discrimination on alcohol use has been well-established, individual differences in factors that may act to either attenuate or exacerbate the negative effects of racial discrimination are largely unknown. One potentially fruitful individual differences trait that has repeatedly been found to predict alcohol problems is the multidimensional personality trait of impulsivity. Nonetheless, the ways in which various aspects of impulsivity interact with racial discrimination is yet unknown. The current study, therefore, examined the joint and interactive contribution of racial discrimination and impulsivity in the prediction of alcohol consumption among racial minority university students. Participants included 336 Black/African-American and Asian/Asian-American university students. Results revealed both racial discrimination and impulsivity to be significantly associated with alcohol problems. Further, individuals' responses to racial discrimination were not uniform. Specifically, the association between racial discrimination and alcohol problems was moderated by lack of Premeditation; racial discrimination was most strongly predictive of alcohol problems for those who reported low level of premeditation. Findings from the present study highlight the importance of investigating risk factors for alcohol problems across multiple levels of the ecology as individual personality traits appear to relate to how one might respond to the experience of racial discrimination. © 2013.

Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korner, Stephan; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Holzapfel, Frank; VanValkenburg, Randal L.

2017-01-01

Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.

A possible correlation between performance IQ, visuomotor adaptation ability and mu suppression.

PubMed

Anwar, Muhammad Nabeel; Navid, Muhammad Samran; Khan, Mushtaq; Kitajo, Keiichi

2015-04-07

Psychometric, anatomical and functional brain studies suggest that individuals differ in the way that they perceive and analyze information and strategically control and execute movements. Inter-individual differences are also observed in neural correlates of specific and general cognitive ability. As a result, some individuals perceive and adapt to environmental conditions and perform motor activities better than others. The aim of this study was to identify a common factor that predicts adaptation of a reaching movement to a visual perturbation and suppression of movement-related brain activity (mu rhythms). Twenty-eight participants participated in two different experiments designed to evaluate visuomotor adaptation and mu suppression ability. Performance intelligence quotient (IQ) was assessed using the revised Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale. Performance IQ predicted adaptation index of visuomotor performance (r=0.43, p=0.02) and suppression of mu rhythms (r=-0.59; p<0.001). Participants with high performance IQ were faster at adapting to a visuomotor perturbation and better at suppressing mu activity than participants with low performance IQ. We found a possible link between performance IQ and mu suppression, and performance IQ and the initial rate of adaptation. Individuals with high performance IQ were better in suppressing mu rhythms and were quicker at associating motor command and required movement than individuals with low performance IQ. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of individual clinical scores in patients with Parkinson's disease using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Hou, YanBing; Luo, ChunYan; Yang, Jing; Ou, RuWei; Song, Wei; Wei, QianQian; Cao, Bei; Zhao, Bi; Wu, Ying; Shang, Hui-Fang; Gong, QiYong

2016-07-15

Neuroimaging holds the promise that it may one day aid the clinical assessment. However, the vast majority of studies using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have reported average differences between Parkinson's disease (PD) patients and healthy controls, which do not permit inferences at the level of individuals. This study was to develop a model for the prediction of PD illness severity ratings from individual fMRI brain scan. The resting-state fMRI scans were obtained from 84 patients with PD and the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-III (UPDRS-III) scores were obtained before scanning. The RVR method was used to predict clinical scores (UPDRS-III) from fMRI scans. The application of RVR to whole-brain resting-state fMRI data allowed prediction of UPDRS-III scores with statistically significant accuracy (correlation=0.35, P-value=0.001; mean sum of squares=222.17, P-value=0.002). This prediction was informed strongly by negative weight areas including prefrontal lobe and medial occipital lobe, and positive weight areas including medial parietal lobe. It was suggested that fMRI scans contained sufficient information about neurobiological change in patients with PD to permit accurate prediction about illness severity, on an individual subject basis. Our results provided preliminary evidence, as proof-of-concept, to support that fMRI might be possible to be a clinically useful quantitative assessment aid in PD at individual level. This may enable clinicians to target those uncooperative patients and machines to replace human for a more efficient use of health care resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of brain systems for nonsymbolic numerosity and the relationship to formal math academic achievement.

PubMed

Haist, Frank; Wazny, Jarnet H; Toomarian, Elizabeth; Adamo, Maha

2015-02-01

A central question in cognitive and educational neuroscience is whether brain operations supporting nonlinguistic intuitive number sense (numerosity) predict individual acquisition and academic achievement for symbolic or "formal" math knowledge. Here, we conducted a developmental functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study of nonsymbolic numerosity task performance in 44 participants including 14 school age children (6-12 years old), 14 adolescents (13-17 years old), and 16 adults and compared a brain activity measure of numerosity precision to scores from the Woodcock-Johnson III Broad Math index of math academic achievement. Accuracy and reaction time from the numerosity task did not reliably predict formal math achievement. We found a significant positive developmental trend for improved numerosity precision in the parietal cortex and intraparietal sulcus specifically. Controlling for age and overall cognitive ability, we found a reliable positive relationship between individual math achievement scores and parietal lobe activity only in children. In addition, children showed robust positive relationships between math achievement and numerosity precision within ventral stream processing areas bilaterally. The pattern of results suggests a dynamic developmental trajectory for visual discrimination strategies that predict the acquisition of formal math knowledge. In adults, the efficiency of visual discrimination marked by numerosity acuity in ventral occipital-temporal cortex and hippocampus differentiated individuals with better or worse formal math achievement, respectively. Overall, these results suggest that two different brain systems for nonsymbolic numerosity acuity may contribute to individual differences in math achievement and that the contribution of these systems differs across development. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of brain systems for nonsymbolic numerosity and the relationship to formal math academic achievement

PubMed Central

Haist, Frank; Wazny, Jarnet H.; Toomarian, Elizabeth; Adamo, Maha

2015-01-01

A central question in cognitive and educational neuroscience is whether brain operations supporting non-linguistic intuitive number sense (numerosity) predict individual acquisition and academic achievement for symbolic or “formal” math knowledge. Here, we conducted a developmental functional MRI study of nonsymbolic numerosity task performance in 44 participants including 14 school age children (6–12 years-old), 14 adolescents (13–17 years-old), and 16 adults and compared a brain activity measure of numerosity precision to scores from the Woodcock-Johnson III Broad Math index of math academic achievement. Accuracy and reaction time from the numerosity task did not reliably predict formal math achievement. We found a significant positive developmental trend for improved numerosity precision in the parietal cortex and intraparietal sulcus (IPS) specifically. Controlling for age and overall cognitive ability, we found a reliable positive relationship between individual math achievement scores and parietal lobe activity only in children. In addition, children showed robust positive relationships between math achievement and numerosity precision within ventral stream processing areas bilaterally. The pattern of results suggests a dynamic developmental trajectory for visual discrimination strategies that predict the acquisition of formal math knowledge. In adults, the efficiency of visual discrimination marked by numerosity acuity in ventral occipital-temporal cortex and hippocampus differentiated individuals with better or worse formal math achievement, respectively. Overall, these results suggest that two different brain systems for nonsymbolic numerosity acuity may contribute to individual differences in math achievement and that the contribution of these systems differs across development. PMID:25327879

Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, C.R.; Hill, M.C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.

2003-01-01

Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new "value of improved information" (VOII) method presented here, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified as most important are associated with flow system attributes that do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters. Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed at improving model predictions.

Applying Sequential Analytic Methods to Self-Reported Information to Anticipate Care Needs.

PubMed

Bayliss, Elizabeth A; Powers, J David; Ellis, Jennifer L; Barrow, Jennifer C; Strobel, MaryJo; Beck, Arne

2016-01-01

Identifying care needs for newly enrolled or newly insured individuals is important under the Affordable Care Act. Systematically collected patient-reported information can potentially identify subgroups with specific care needs prior to service use. We conducted a retrospective cohort investigation of 6,047 individuals who completed a 10-question needs assessment upon initial enrollment in Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO), a not-for-profit integrated delivery system, through the Colorado State Individual Exchange. We used responses from the Brief Health Questionnaire (BHQ), to develop a predictive model for cost for receiving care in the top 25 percent, then applied cluster analytic techniques to identify different high-cost subpopulations. Per-member, per-month cost was measured from 6 to 12 months following BHQ response. BHQ responses significantly predictive of high-cost care included self-reported health status, functional limitations, medication use, presence of 0-4 chronic conditions, self-reported emergency department (ED) use during the prior year, and lack of prior insurance. Age, gender, and deductible-based insurance product were also predictive. The largest possible range of predicted probabilities of being in the top 25 percent of cost was 3.5 percent to 96.4 percent. Within the top cost quartile, examples of potentially actionable clusters of patients included those with high morbidity, prior utilization, depression risk and financial constraints; those with high morbidity, previously uninsured individuals with few financial constraints; and relatively healthy, previously insured individuals with medication needs. Applying sequential predictive modeling and cluster analytic techniques to patient-reported information can identify subgroups of individuals within heterogeneous populations who may benefit from specific interventions to optimize initial care delivery.

Brain Potentials Measured During a Go/NoGo Task Predict Completion of Substance Abuse Treatment

PubMed Central

Steele, Vaughn R.; Fink, Brandi C.; Maurer, J. Michael; Arbabshirani, Mohammad R.; Wilber, Charles H.; Jaffe, Adam J.; Sidz, Anna; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Clark, Vincent P.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2014-01-01

Background US nationwide estimates indicate 50–80% of prisoners have a history of substance abuse or dependence. Tailoring substance abuse treatment to specific needs of incarcerated individuals could improve effectiveness of treating substance dependence and preventing drug abuse relapse. The purpose of the present study was to test the hypothesis that pre-treatment neural measures of a Go/NoGo task would predict which individuals would or would not complete a 12-week cognitive behavioral substance abuse treatment program. Methods Adult incarcerated participants (N=89; Females=55) who volunteered for substance abuse treatment performed a response inhibition (Go/NoGo) task while event-related potentials (ERP) were recorded. Stimulus- and response-locked ERPs were compared between individuals who completed (N=68; Females=45) and discontinued (N=21; Females=10) treatment. Results As predicted, stimulus-locked P2, response-locked error-related negativity (ERN/Ne), and response-locked error positivity (Pe), measured with windowed time-domain and principal component analysis, differed between groups. Using logistic regression and support-vector machine (i.e., pattern classifiers) models, P2 and Pe predicted treatment completion above and beyond other measures (i.e., N2, P300, ERN/Ne, age, sex, IQ, impulsivity, and self-reported depression, anxiety, motivation for change, and years of drug abuse). Conclusions We conclude individuals who discontinue treatment exhibited deficiencies in sensory gating, as indexed by smaller P2, error-monitoring, as indexed by smaller ERN/Ne, and adjusting response strategy post-error, as indexed by larger Pe. However, the combination of P2 and Pe reliably predicted 83.33% of individuals who discontinued treatment. These results may help in the development of individualized therapies, which could lead to more favorable, long-term outcomes. PMID:24238783

Individual differences in maternal response to immune challenge predict offspring behavior: Contribution of environmental factors

PubMed Central

Bronson, Stefanie L.; Ahlbrand, Rebecca; Horn, Paul S.; Kern, Joseph R.; Richtand, Neil M.

2011-01-01

Maternal infection during pregnancy elevates risk for schizophrenia and related disorders in offspring. Converging evidence suggests the maternal inflammatory response mediates the interaction between maternal infection, altered brain development, and behavioral outcome. The extent to which individual differences in the maternal response to immune challenge influence the development of these abnormalities is unknown. The present study investigated the impact of individual differences in maternal response to the viral mimic polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid (poly I:C) on offspring behavior. We observed significant variability in body weight alterations of pregnant rats induced by administration of poly I:C on gestational day 14. Furthermore, the presence or absence of maternal weight loss predicted MK-801 and amphetamine stimulated locomotor abnormalities in offspring. MK-801 stimulated locomotion was altered in offspring of all poly I:C treated dams; however, the presence or absence of maternal weight loss resulted in decreased and modestly increased locomotion, respectively. Adult offspring of poly I:C treated dams that lost weight exhibited significantly decreased amphetamine stimulated locomotion, while offspring of poly I:C treated dams without weight loss performed similarly to vehicle controls. Social isolation and increased maternal age predicted weight loss in response to poly I:C but not vehicle injection. In combination, these data identify environmental factors associated with the maternal response to immune challenge and functional outcome of offspring exposed to maternal immune activation. PMID:21255612

Individual differences in bodily freezing predict emotional biases in decision making

PubMed Central

Ly, Verena; Huys, Quentin J. M.; Stins, John F.; Roelofs, Karin; Cools, Roshan

2014-01-01

Instrumental decision making has long been argued to be vulnerable to emotional responses. Literature on multiple decision making systems suggests that this emotional biasing might reflect effects of a system that regulates innately specified, evolutionarily preprogrammed responses. To test this hypothesis directly, we investigated whether effects of emotional faces on instrumental action can be predicted by effects of emotional faces on bodily freezing, an innately specified response to aversive relative to appetitive cues. We tested 43 women using a novel emotional decision making task combined with posturography, which involves a force platform to detect small oscillations of the body to accurately quantify postural control in upright stance. On the platform, participants learned whole body approach-avoidance actions based on monetary feedback, while being primed by emotional faces (angry/happy). Our data evidence an emotional biasing of instrumental action. Thus, angry relative to happy faces slowed instrumental approach relative to avoidance responses. Critically, individual differences in this emotional biasing effect were predicted by individual differences in bodily freezing. This result suggests that emotional biasing of instrumental action involves interaction with a system that controls innately specified responses. Furthermore, our findings help bridge (animal and human) decision making and emotion research to advance our mechanistic understanding of decision making anomalies in daily encounters as well as in a wide range of psychopathology. PMID:25071491

Predicting Individual Characteristics from Digital Traces on Social Media: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Settanni, Michele; Azucar, Danny; Marengo, Davide

2018-04-01

The increasing utilization of social media provides a vast and new source of user-generated ecological data (digital traces), which can be automatically collected for research purposes. The availability of these data sets, combined with the convergence between social and computer sciences, has led researchers to develop automated methods to extract digital traces from social media and use them to predict individual psychological characteristics and behaviors. In this article, we reviewed the literature on this topic and conducted a series of meta-analyses to determine the strength of associations between digital traces and specific individual characteristics; personality, psychological well-being, and intelligence. Potential moderator effects were analyzed with respect to type of social media platform, type of digital traces examined, and study quality. Our findings indicate that digital traces from social media can be studied to assess and predict theoretically distant psychosocial characteristics with remarkable accuracy. Analysis of moderators indicated that the collection of specific types of information (i.e., user demographics), and the inclusion of different types of digital traces, could help improve the accuracy of predictions.

Structural integrity of frontostriatal connections predicts longitudinal changes in self-esteem.

PubMed

Chavez, Robert S; Heatherton, Todd F

2017-06-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem 8 months after initial scanning in a sample of 30 young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions, including depression and anxiety.

Structural Integrity of Frontostriatal Connections Predicts Longitudinal Changes in Self-esteem

PubMed Central

Chavez, Robert S.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2016-01-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem eight months after initial scanning in sample of thirty young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions including depression and anxiety. PMID:26966986

Linking sex differences in corticosterone with individual reproductive behaviour and hatch success in two species of uniparental shorebirds.

PubMed

Edwards, Darryl B; Chin, Eunice H; Burness, Gary; Gilchrist, H Grant; Schulte-Hostedde, Albrecht I

2013-09-01

In birds, corticosterone (CORT) appears to facilitate reproductive activity because baseline and stress-induced CORT levels are elevated in breeding individuals compared with other times of the year. In particular, CORT is lower in the sex providing most of the parental care (i.e., incubation), which could be an important adaptation to tolerate stressors that result in abandoning reproduction. Therefore, one explanation for sex differences in CORT is that lower levels are favoured during the incubation/parental phase of reproduction. Using two species of uniparental shorebird - polyandrous red phalaropes (Phalaropus fulicarius) and polygynous white-rumped sandpipers (Calidris fuscicollis) - we predicted that the incubating sex would have lower baseline and stress-induced CORT, and incubating individuals with lower CORT would more effectively defend nests against a simulated intrusion, would return more quickly afterwards, and would ultimately have higher hatch success. We found that phalaropes followed the predicted pattern: incubating individuals (males) had lower baseline and stress-induced CORT than females but for baseline CORT these differences existed prior to males commencing incubation. Incubating male phalaropes with lower baseline and stress-induced CORT returned to incubate more quickly after a disturbance and there was non-significant tendency for baseline CORT to be lower in successful nests. In sandpipers, we observed no sex differences and no significant relationships between individual CORT levels and nest defence behaviours or hatch success. Our results demonstrate that in phalaropes at least, selection favours lower baseline and stress-induced CORT during the nesting period. These results can explain sex differences in stress-induced levels of CORT, however sex differences in baseline CORT were present prior to incubation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expression profiling associates blood and brain glucocorticoid receptor signaling with trauma-related individual differences in both sexes.

PubMed

Daskalakis, Nikolaos P; Cohen, Hagit; Cai, Guiqing; Buxbaum, Joseph D; Yehuda, Rachel

2014-09-16

Delineating the molecular basis of individual differences in the stress response is critical to understanding the pathophysiology and treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In this study, 7 d after predator-scent-stress (PSS) exposure, male and female rats were classified into vulnerable (i.e., "PTSD-like") and resilient (i.e., minimally affected) phenotypes on the basis of their performance on a variety of behavioral measures. Genome-wide expression profiling in blood and two limbic brain regions (amygdala and hippocampus), followed by quantitative PCR validation, was performed in these two groups of animals, as well as in an unexposed control group. Differentially expressed genes were identified in blood and brain associated with PSS-exposure and with distinct behavioral profiles postexposure. There was a small but significant between-tissue overlap (4-21%) for the genes associated with exposure-related individual differences, indicating convergent gene expression in both sexes. To uncover convergent signaling pathways across tissue and sex, upstream activated/deactivated transcription factors were first predicted for each tissue and then the respective pathways were identified. Glucocorticoid receptor (GR) signaling was the only convergent pathway associated with individual differences when using the most stringent statistical threshold. Corticosterone treatment 1 h after PSS-exposure prevented anxiety and hyperarousal 7 d later in both sexes, confirming the GR involvement in the PSS behavioral response. In conclusion, genes and pathways associated with extreme differences in the traumatic stress behavioral response can be distinguished from those associated with trauma exposure. Blood-based biomarkers can predict aspects of brain signaling. GR signaling is a convergent signaling pathway, associated with trauma-related individual differences in both sexes.

Mathematics anxiety affects counting but not subitizing during visual enumeration.

PubMed

Maloney, Erin A; Risko, Evan F; Ansari, Daniel; Fugelsang, Jonathan

2010-02-01

Individuals with mathematics anxiety have been found to differ from their non-anxious peers on measures of higher-level mathematical processes, but not simple arithmetic. The current paper examines differences between mathematics anxious and non-mathematics anxious individuals in more basic numerical processing using a visual enumeration task. This task allows for the assessment of two systems of basic number processing: subitizing and counting. Mathematics anxious individuals, relative to non-mathematics anxious individuals, showed a deficit in the counting but not in the subitizing range. Furthermore, working memory was found to mediate this group difference. These findings demonstrate that the problems associated with mathematics anxiety exist at a level more basic than would be predicted from the extant literature. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Happiness as a belief system: individual differences and priming in emotion judgments.

PubMed

Robinson, Michael D; Kirkeby, Ben S

2005-08-01

Three studies involving 104 undergraduates sought to examine how an individual's level of life satisfaction organizes their knowledge concerning the self's emotions. Participants judged the self's positive and negative emotions within a computerized task. Key results sought to determine whether judging two positive emotions in a consecutive sequence speeds the second judgment--a pattern of priming that would suggest a tighter, more interconnected structure in semantic memory related to one's positive emotions. As expected, individual differences in life satisfaction predicted the magnitude of this priming effect (Studies 1 & 2), which appeared to be unique to judgments of the self's emotions (Study 3). The results indicate that happy, relative to less happy, individuals organize information concerning their positive emotions in a qualitatively different and tighter semantic manner.

Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity

PubMed Central

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

2018-01-01

Abstract Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences. PMID:29529310

The effects of private self-consciousness and perspective taking on satisfaction in close relationships.

PubMed

Franzoi, S L; Davis, M H; Young, R D

1985-06-01

We extended the scope of recent studies in which self-awareness and perspective taking have been used as predictors of social competence or adjustment: We analyzed their influence on the satisfaction experienced in monogamous, heterosexual relationships. Members of 131 couples answered questions concerning themselves and their relationships. We predicted that individual differences in private self-consciousness would be positively related to relationship satisfaction because of the greater self-disclosure resulting from that heightened self-attention. Second, we predicted that individual differences in perspective taking would foster relationship satisfaction, independent of any influence of self-disclosure. Both expectations were confirmed. Scores on the private self-consciousness scale were predictive of reported self-disclosure, and self-disclosure was predictive of satisfaction in the relationship. Furthermore, once the influence of self-disclosure was removed, no effect of self-consciousness on satisfaction remained. In contrast, after disclosure was controlled, perspective-taking scores were significantly related to satisfaction and were in fact unrelated to disclosure at all. These findings indicate that two personality characteristics having to do with habitual attention to behavioral tendencies, to emotions, and to motivations significantly enhance the quality of close heterosexual relationships in different ways. Results are discussed in terms of current theory in the related fields.

Inferring Social Status and Rich Club Effects in Enterprise Communication Networks

PubMed Central

Dong, Yuxiao; Tang, Jie; Chawla, Nitesh V.; Lou, Tiancheng; Yang, Yang; Wang, Bai

2015-01-01

Social status, defined as the relative rank or position that an individual holds in a social hierarchy, is known to be among the most important motivating forces in social behaviors. In this paper, we consider the notion of status from the perspective of a position or title held by a person in an enterprise. We study the intersection of social status and social networks in an enterprise. We study whether enterprise communication logs can help reveal how social interactions and individual status manifest themselves in social networks. To that end, we use two enterprise datasets with three communication channels — voice call, short message, and email — to demonstrate the social-behavioral differences among individuals with different status. We have several interesting findings and based on these findings we also develop a model to predict social status. On the individual level, high-status individuals are more likely to be spanned as structural holes by linking to people in parts of the enterprise networks that are otherwise not well connected to one another. On the community level, the principle of homophily, social balance and clique theory generally indicate a “rich club” maintained by high-status individuals, in the sense that this community is much more connected, balanced and dense. Our model can predict social status of individuals with 93% accuracy. PMID:25822343

Intelligence and homosexuality.

PubMed

Kanazawa, Satoshi

2012-09-01

The origin of preferences and values is an unresolved theoretical problem in behavioural sciences. The Savanna-IQ Interaction Hypothesis, derived from the Savanna Principle and a theory of the evolution of general intelligence, suggests that more intelligent individuals are more likely to acquire and espouse evolutionarily novel preferences and values than less intelligent individuals, but general intelligence has no effect on the acquisition and espousal of evolutionarily familiar preferences and values. Ethnographies of traditional societies suggest that exclusively homosexual behaviour was probably rare in the ancestral environment, so the Hypothesis would predict that more intelligent individuals are more likely to identify themselves as homosexual and engage in homosexual behaviour. Analyses of three large, nationally representative samples (two of which are prospectively longitudinal) from two different nations confirm the prediction.

A critical assessment of topologically associating domain prediction tools

PubMed Central

Dali, Rola

2017-01-01

Abstract Topologically associating domains (TADs) have been proposed to be the basic unit of chromosome folding and have been shown to play key roles in genome organization and gene regulation. Several different tools are available for TAD prediction, but their properties have never been thoroughly assessed. In this manuscript, we compare the output of seven different TAD prediction tools on two published Hi-C data sets. TAD predictions varied greatly between tools in number, size distribution and other biological properties. Assessed against a manual annotation of TADs, individual TAD boundary predictions were found to be quite reliable, but their assembly into complete TAD structures was much less so. In addition, many tools were sensitive to sequencing depth and resolution of the interaction frequency matrix. This manuscript provides users and designers of TAD prediction tools with information that will help guide the choice of tools and the interpretation of their predictions. PMID:28334773

Correlations between human mobility and social interaction reveal general activity patterns.

PubMed

Mollgaard, Anders; Lehmann, Sune; Mathiesen, Joachim

2017-01-01

A day in the life of a person involves a broad range of activities which are common across many people. Going beyond diurnal cycles, a central question is: to what extent do individuals act according to patterns shared across an entire population? Here we investigate the interplay between different activity types, namely communication, motion, and physical proximity by analyzing data collected from smartphones distributed among 638 individuals. We explore two central questions: Which underlying principles govern the formation of the activity patterns? Are the patterns specific to each individual or shared across the entire population? We find that statistics of the entire population allows us to successfully predict 71% of the activity and 85% of the inactivity involved in communication, mobility, and physical proximity. Surprisingly, individual level statistics only result in marginally better predictions, indicating that a majority of activity patterns are shared across our sample population. Finally, we predict short-term activity patterns using a generalized linear model, which suggests that a simple linear description might be sufficient to explain a wide range of actions, whether they be of social or of physical character.

Individual differences in cognitive functioning predict effectiveness of a heads-up Lane Departure Warning for younger and older drivers

PubMed Central

Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Lester, Benjamin; Dawson, Jeffrey; Rizzo, Matthew; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2016-01-01

The effectiveness of an idealized lane departure warning (LDW) was evaluated in an interactive fixed base driving simulator. Thirty-eight older (mean age = 77 years) and 40 younger drivers (mean age = 35 years) took four different drives/routes similar in road culture composition and hazards encountered with and without LDW. The four drives were administered over visits separated approximately by two weeks to examine changes in long-term effectiveness of LDW. Performance metrics were number of LDW activations and average correction time to each LDW. LDW reduced correction time to re-center the vehicle by 1.34 seconds on average (95% CI = 1.12–1.57 seconds) but did not reduce the number of times the drivers drifted enough in their lanes to activate the system (LDW activations). The magnitude of reductions in average correction RT was similar for older and younger drivers and did not change with repeated exposures across visits. The contribution of individual differences in basic visual and motor function, as well as cognitive function to safety gains from LDW was also examined. Cognitive speed of processing predicted lane keeping performance for older and younger drivers. Differences in memory, visuospatial construction, and executive function tended to predict performance differences among older but not younger drivers. Cognitive functioning did not predict changes in the magnitude of safety benefits from LDW over time. Implications are discussed with respect to real-world safety systems. PMID:27898370

Individual differences in cognitive functioning predict effectiveness of a heads-up lane departure warning for younger and older drivers.

PubMed

Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Lester, Benjamin; Dawson, Jeffrey; Rizzo, Matthew; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2017-02-01

The effectiveness of an idealized lane departure warning (LDW) was evaluated in an interactive fixed base driving simulator. Thirty-eight older (mean age=77years) and 40 younger drivers (mean age=35years) took four different drives/routes similar in road culture composition and hazards encountered with and without LDW. The four drives were administered over visits separated approximately by two weeks to examine changes in long-term effectiveness of LDW. Performance metrics were number of LDW activations and average correction time to each LDW. LDW reduced correction time to re-center the vehicle by 1.34s on average (95% CI=1.12-1.57s) but did not reduce the number of times the drivers drifted enough in their lanes to activate the system (LDW activations). The magnitude of reductions in average correction RT was similar for older and younger drivers and did not change with repeated exposures across visits. The contribution of individual differences in basic visual and motor function, as well as cognitive function to safety gains from LDW was also examined. Cognitive speed of processing predicted lane keeping performance for older and younger drivers. Differences in memory, visuospatial construction, and executive function tended to predict performance differences among older but not younger drivers. Cognitive functioning did not predict changes in the magnitude of safety benefits from LDW over time. Implications are discussed with respect to real-world safety systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased brain-predicted aging in treated HIV disease

PubMed Central

Underwood, Jonathan; Caan, Matthan W.A.; De Francesco, Davide; van Zoest, Rosan A.; Leech, Robert; Wit, Ferdinand W.N.M.; Portegies, Peter; Geurtsen, Gert J.; Schmand, Ben A.; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F.; Franceschi, Claudio; Sabin, Caroline A.; Majoie, Charles B.L.M.; Winston, Alan; Reiss, Peter; Sharp, David J.

2017-01-01

Objective: To establish whether HIV disease is associated with abnormal levels of age-related brain atrophy, by estimating apparent brain age using neuroimaging and exploring whether these estimates related to HIV status, age, cognitive performance, and HIV-related clinical parameters. Methods: A large sample of virologically suppressed HIV-positive adults (n = 162, age 45–82 years) and highly comparable HIV-negative controls (n = 105) were recruited as part of the Comorbidity in Relation to AIDS (COBRA) collaboration. Using T1-weighted MRI scans, a machine-learning model of healthy brain aging was defined in an independent cohort (n = 2,001, aged 18–90 years). Neuroimaging data from HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals were then used to estimate brain-predicted age; then brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD = brain-predicted brain age − chronological age) scores were calculated. Neuropsychological and clinical assessments were also carried out. Results: HIV-positive individuals had greater brain-PAD score (mean ± SD 2.15 ± 7.79 years) compared to HIV-negative individuals (−0.87 ± 8.40 years; b = 3.48, p < 0.01). Increased brain-PAD score was associated with decreased performance in multiple cognitive domains (information processing speed, executive function, memory) and general cognitive performance across all participants. Brain-PAD score was not associated with age, duration of HIV infection, or other HIV-related measures. Conclusion: Increased apparent brain aging, predicted using neuroimaging, was observed in HIV-positive adults, despite effective viral suppression. Furthermore, the magnitude of increased apparent brain aging related to cognitive deficits. However, predicted brain age difference did not correlate with chronological age or duration of HIV infection, suggesting that HIV disease may accentuate rather than accelerate brain aging. PMID:28258081

Increased brain-predicted aging in treated HIV disease.

PubMed

Cole, James H; Underwood, Jonathan; Caan, Matthan W A; De Francesco, Davide; van Zoest, Rosan A; Leech, Robert; Wit, Ferdinand W N M; Portegies, Peter; Geurtsen, Gert J; Schmand, Ben A; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F; Franceschi, Claudio; Sabin, Caroline A; Majoie, Charles B L M; Winston, Alan; Reiss, Peter; Sharp, David J

2017-04-04

To establish whether HIV disease is associated with abnormal levels of age-related brain atrophy, by estimating apparent brain age using neuroimaging and exploring whether these estimates related to HIV status, age, cognitive performance, and HIV-related clinical parameters. A large sample of virologically suppressed HIV-positive adults (n = 162, age 45-82 years) and highly comparable HIV-negative controls (n = 105) were recruited as part of the Comorbidity in Relation to AIDS (COBRA) collaboration. Using T1-weighted MRI scans, a machine-learning model of healthy brain aging was defined in an independent cohort (n = 2,001, aged 18-90 years). Neuroimaging data from HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals were then used to estimate brain-predicted age; then brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD = brain-predicted brain age - chronological age) scores were calculated. Neuropsychological and clinical assessments were also carried out. HIV-positive individuals had greater brain-PAD score (mean ± SD 2.15 ± 7.79 years) compared to HIV-negative individuals (-0.87 ± 8.40 years; b = 3.48, p < 0.01). Increased brain-PAD score was associated with decreased performance in multiple cognitive domains (information processing speed, executive function, memory) and general cognitive performance across all participants. Brain-PAD score was not associated with age, duration of HIV infection, or other HIV-related measures. Increased apparent brain aging, predicted using neuroimaging, was observed in HIV-positive adults, despite effective viral suppression. Furthermore, the magnitude of increased apparent brain aging related to cognitive deficits. However, predicted brain age difference did not correlate with chronological age or duration of HIV infection, suggesting that HIV disease may accentuate rather than accelerate brain aging. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

2015-04-01

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information-i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease-the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

2015-04-01

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information—i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease—the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

From neural signatures of emotional modulation to social cognition: individual differences in healthy volunteers and psychiatric participants.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Agustín; Aguado, Jaume; Baez, Sandra; Huepe, David; Lopez, Vladimir; Ortega, Rodrigo; Sigman, Mariano; Mikulan, Ezequiel; Lischinsky, Alicia; Torrente, Fernando; Cetkovich, Marcelo; Torralva, Teresa; Bekinschtein, Tristan; Manes, Facundo

2014-07-01

It is commonly assumed that early emotional signals provide relevant information for social cognition tasks. The goal of this study was to test the association between (a) cortical markers of face emotional processing and (b) social-cognitive measures, and also to build a model which can predict this association (a and b) in healthy volunteers as well as in different groups of psychiatric patients. Thus, we investigated the early cortical processing of emotional stimuli (N170, using a face and word valence task) and their relationship with the social-cognitive profiles (SCPs, indexed by measures of theory of mind, fluid intelligence, speed processing and executive functions). Group comparisons and individual differences were assessed among schizophrenia (SCZ) patients and their relatives, individuals with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), individuals with euthymic bipolar disorder (BD) and healthy participants (educational level, handedness, age and gender matched). Our results provide evidence of emotional N170 impairments in the affected groups (SCZ and relatives, ADHD and BD) as well as subtle group differences. Importantly, cortical processing of emotional stimuli predicted the SCP, as evidenced by a structural equation model analysis. This is the first study to report an association model of brain markers of emotional processing and SCP. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Educational Barriers of Rural Youth: Relation of Individual and Contextual Difference Variables

PubMed Central

Irvin, Matthew J.; Byun, Soo-yong; Meece, Judith L.; Farmer, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relation of several individual and contextual difference factors to the perceived educational barriers of rural youth. Data were from a broader national investigation of students’ postsecondary aspirations and preparation in rural high schools across the United States. The sample involved more than 7,000 rural youth in 73 high schools across 34 states. Results indicated that some individual (e.g., African American race/ethnicity) and contextual (e.g., parent education) difference factors were predictive while others were not. Extensions to, similarities, and variations with previous research are discussed. Implications, limitations, and suggestions for future research are also discussed. PMID:24474843

Individual differences in implicit motor learning: task specificity in sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning.

PubMed

Stark-Inbar, Alit; Raza, Meher; Taylor, Jordan A; Ivry, Richard B

2017-01-01

In standard taxonomies, motor skills are typically treated as representative of implicit or procedural memory. We examined two emblematic tasks of implicit motor learning, sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning, asking whether individual differences in learning are correlated between these tasks, as well as how individual differences within each task are related to different performance variables. As a prerequisite, it was essential to establish the reliability of learning measures for each task. Participants were tested twice on a visuomotor adaptation task and on a sequence learning task, either the serial reaction time task or the alternating reaction time task. Learning was evident in all tasks at the group level and reliable at the individual level in visuomotor adaptation and the alternating reaction time task but not in the serial reaction time task. Performance variability was predictive of learning in both domains, yet the relationship was in the opposite direction for adaptation and sequence learning. For the former, faster learning was associated with lower variability, consistent with models of sensorimotor adaptation in which learning rates are sensitive to noise. For the latter, greater learning was associated with higher variability and slower reaction times, factors that may facilitate the spread of activation required to form predictive, sequential associations. Interestingly, learning measures of the different tasks were not correlated. Together, these results oppose a shared process for implicit learning in sensorimotor adaptation and sequence learning and provide insight into the factors that account for individual differences in learning within each task domain. We investigated individual differences in the ability to implicitly learn motor skills. As a prerequisite, we assessed whether individual differences were reliable across test sessions. We found that two commonly used tasks of implicit learning, visuomotor adaptation and the alternating serial reaction time task, exhibited good test-retest reliability in measures of learning and performance. However, the learning measures did not correlate between the two tasks, arguing against a shared process for implicit motor learning. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

What Process Mediates Predictions of Childhood IQ from Infant Habituation and Recognition Memory? Speculations on the Roles of Inhibition and Rate of Information Processing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Robert B.

1994-01-01

This editorial proposes that the dependent variables that predict childhood intelligence quotient (IQ) from habituation and recognition memory assessments made during infancy may primarily reflect individual differences in rate of information processing. Inhibition may be a stable thread in mental development. (Author/SLD)

Developmental Delays in Executive Function from 3 to 5 Years of Age Predict Kindergarten Academic Readiness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willoughby, Michael T.; Magnus, Brooke; Vernon-Feagans, Lynne; Blair, Clancy B.

2017-01-01

Substantial evidence has established that individual differences in executive function (EF) in early childhood are uniquely predictive of children's academic readiness at school entry. The current study tested whether growth trajectories of EF across the early childhood period could be used to identify a subset of children who were at pronounced…

Constraint on Absolute Accuracy of Metacomprehension Assessments: The Anchoring and Adjustment Model vs. the Standards Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Heekyung

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide a systematic account of three typical phenomena surrounding absolute accuracy of metacomprehension assessments: (1) the absolute accuracy of predictions is typically quite low; (2) there exist individual differences in absolute accuracy of predictions as a function of reading skill; and (3) postdictions…

Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

Computational Fluency and Strategy Choice Predict Individual and Cross-National Differences in Complex Arithmetic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vasilyeva, Marina; Laski, Elida V.; Shen, Chen

2015-01-01

The present study tested the hypothesis that children's fluency with basic number facts and knowledge of computational strategies, derived from early arithmetic experience, predicts their performance on complex arithmetic problems. First-grade students from United States and Taiwan (N = 152, mean age: 7.3 years) were presented with problems that…

Prediction of work metabolism from heart rate measurements in forest work: some practical methodological issues.

PubMed

Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Auger, Isabelle; Leone, Mario

2015-01-01

Individual heart rate (HR) to workload relationships were determined using 93 submaximal step-tests administered to 26 healthy participants attending physical activities in a university training centre (laboratory study) and 41 experienced forest workers (field study). Predicted maximum aerobic capacity (MAC) was compared to measured MAC from a maximal treadmill test (laboratory study) to test the effect of two age-predicted maximum HR Equations (220-age and 207-0.7 × age) and two clothing insulation levels (0.4 and 0.91 clo) during the step-test. Work metabolism (WM) estimated from forest work HR was compared against concurrent work V̇O2 measurements while taking into account the HR thermal component. Results show that MAC and WM can be accurately predicted from work HR measurements and simple regression models developed in this study (1% group mean prediction bias and up to 25% expected prediction bias for a single individual). Clothing insulation had no impact on predicted MAC nor age-predicted maximum HR equations. Practitioner summary: This study sheds light on four practical methodological issues faced by practitioners regarding the use of HR methodology to assess WM in actual work environments. More specifically, the effect of wearing work clothes and the use of two different maximum HR prediction equations on the ability of a submaximal step-test to assess MAC are examined, as well as the accuracy of using an individual's step-test HR to workload relationship to predict WM from HR data collected during actual work in the presence of thermal stress.

Constructing Stories of Self-Growth: How Individual Differences in Patterns of Autobiographical Reasoning Relate to Well-being in Midlife

PubMed Central

Lilgendahl, Jennifer Pals; McAdams, Dan P.

2010-01-01

Although growth has been a central focus in narrative research, few studies have examined growth comprehensively, as a story that emerges across the interpretation of many events. In this study, we examined how individual differences in autobiographical reasoning (AR) about self-growth relate to traits and well-being in midlife adults. Two patterns of growth-related AR were identified: 1) positive processing, defined as the average tendency to interpret events positively (vs. negatively), and 2) differentiated processing, defined as the extent to which past events are interpreted as causing a variety of forms of self-growth. Results showed that positive processing was negatively related to neuroticism and predicted well-being even after controlling for the average valence of past events. Additionally, differentiated processing of negative events but not positive events was positively related to openness and predictive of well-being. Finally, growth-related AR patterns independently predicted well-being beyond the effects of traits and demographic factors. PMID:21395593

Working memory predicts children's analogical reasoning.

PubMed

Simms, Nina K; Frausel, Rebecca R; Richland, Lindsey E

2018-02-01

Analogical reasoning is the cognitive skill of drawing relationships between representations, often between prior knowledge and new representations, that allows for bootstrapping cognitive and language development. Analogical reasoning proficiency develops substantially during childhood, although the mechanisms underlying this development have been debated, with developing cognitive resources as one proposed mechanism. We explored the role of executive function (EF) in supporting children's analogical reasoning development, with the goal of determining whether predicted aspects of EF were related to analogical development at the level of individual differences. We assessed 5- to 11-year-old children's working memory, inhibitory control, and cognitive flexibility using measures from the National Institutes of Health Toolbox Cognition battery. Individual differences in children's working memory best predicted performance on an analogical mapping task, even when controlling for age, suggesting a fundamental interrelationship between analogical reasoning and working memory development. These findings underscore the need to consider cognitive capacities in comprehensive theories of children's reasoning development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal structure of motor variability is dynamically regulated and predicts motor learning ability.

PubMed

Wu, Howard G; Miyamoto, Yohsuke R; Gonzalez Castro, Luis Nicolas; Ölveczky, Bence P; Smith, Maurice A

2014-02-01

Individual differences in motor learning ability are widely acknowledged, yet little is known about the factors that underlie them. Here we explore whether movement-to-movement variability in motor output, a ubiquitous if often unwanted characteristic of motor performance, predicts motor learning ability. Surprisingly, we found that higher levels of task-relevant motor variability predicted faster learning both across individuals and across tasks in two different paradigms, one relying on reward-based learning to shape specific arm movement trajectories and the other relying on error-based learning to adapt movements in novel physical environments. We proceeded to show that training can reshape the temporal structure of motor variability, aligning it with the trained task to improve learning. These results provide experimental support for the importance of action exploration, a key idea from reinforcement learning theory, showing that motor variability facilitates motor learning in humans and that our nervous systems actively regulate it to improve learning.

Temporal structure of motor variability is dynamically regulated and predicts motor learning ability

PubMed Central

Wu, Howard G; Miyamoto, Yohsuke R; Castro, Luis Nicolas Gonzalez; Ölveczky, Bence P; Smith, Maurice A

2015-01-01

Individual differences in motor learning ability are widely acknowledged, yet little is known about the factors that underlie them. Here we explore whether movement-to-movement variability in motor output, a ubiquitous if often unwanted characteristic of motor performance, predicts motor learning ability. Surprisingly, we found that higher levels of task-relevant motor variability predicted faster learning both across individuals and across tasks in two different paradigms, one relying on reward-based learning to shape specific arm movement trajectories and the other relying on error-based learning to adapt movements in novel physical environments. We proceeded to show that training can reshape the temporal structure of motor variability, aligning it with the trained task to improve learning. These results provide experimental support for the importance of action exploration, a key idea from reinforcement learning theory, showing that motor variability facilitates motor learning in humans and that our nervous systems actively regulate it to improve learning. PMID:24413700

Smoking status and its relationship with exercise capacity, physical activity in daily life and quality of life in physically independent, elderly individuals.

PubMed

Mesquita, R; Gonçalves, C G; Hayashi, D; Costa, V de S P; Teixeira, D de C; de Freitas, E R F S; Felcar, J M; Pitta, F; Molari, M; Probst, V S

2015-03-01

To investigate the relationship between smoking status and exercise capacity, physical activity in daily life and health-related quality of life in physically independent, elderly (≥60 years) individuals. Cross-sectional, observational study. Community-dwelling, elderly individuals. One hundred and fifty-four elderly individuals were categorised into four groups according to their smoking status: never smokers (n=57), passive smokers (n=30), ex-smokers (n=45) and current smokers (n=22). Exercise capacity [6-minute walk test (6MWT)], physical activity in daily life (step counting) and health-related quality of life [36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) questionnaire] were assessed. Current and ex-smokers had lower mean exercise capacity compared with never smokers: 90 [standard deviation (SD) 10] % predicted, 91 (SD 12) % predicted and 100 (SD 13) % predicted distance on 6MWT, respectively [mean differences -9.8%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) -17.8 to -1.8 and -9.1%, 95% CI -15.4 to -2.7, respectively; P<0.05 for both]. The level of physical activity did not differ between the groups, but was found to correlate negatively with the level of nicotine dependence in current smokers (r=-0.47, P=0.03). The median score for the mental health dimension of SF-36 was worse in passive {72 [interquartile range (IQR) 56 to 96] points} and current [76 (IQR 55 to 80) points] smokers compared with ex-smokers [88 (IQR 70 to 100) points] (median differences -16 points, 95% CI -22.2 to -3.0 and -12 points, 95% CI -22.8 to -2.4, respectively; P<0.05 for both). Among elderly individuals, current smokers had lower exercise capacity than never smokers. Although the level of physical activity did not differ between the groups, an association was found with smoking. Tobacco exposure was associated with worse scores for the mental health dimension of SF-36 in physically independent, elderly individuals. Copyright © 2014 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The bidirectional relationship between physical activity and sleep in depressed versus non-depressed individuals].

PubMed

Oude Oosterik, N A M; Bouwmans, M E J; de Groot, I W; Bos, E H; de Jonge, P

Sleep and physical activity are related, but the direction of this relationship is unclear and it is not known whether the direction differs in depressed and non-depressed persons. To study the bidirectional relationship between physical activity and sleep in daily life by making repeated measurements in depressed and non-depressed people. Every day for 30 consecutive days each depressed (N = 27) and non-depressed (N = 27) participant in our study had to complete an electronic questionnaire relating to subjective sleep quality and sleep duration and were required to wear an accelerometer that recorded physical activity. Multi-level analysis showed that an increase in subjective sleep duration resulted in a decrease in physical activity. The differences between individuals with regard to the direction and strength of this relationship were significant. Changes in physical activity did not predict changes in sleep quality or sleep duration. We did not find any differences in the relationships for depressed and non-depressed participants. Change in sleep duration predicts change in physical activity, although there was significant heterogeneity in the results for individuals. Our findings underline the importance of further research and of the development of interventions that are tailored to the precise needs of the individual patient.

Different predictors of multiple-target search accuracy between nonprofessional and professional visual searchers.

PubMed

Biggs, Adam T; Mitroff, Stephen R

2014-01-01

Visual search, locating target items among distractors, underlies daily activities ranging from critical tasks (e.g., looking for dangerous objects during security screening) to commonplace ones (e.g., finding your friends in a crowded bar). Both professional and nonprofessional individuals conduct visual searches, and the present investigation is aimed at understanding how they perform similarly and differently. We administered a multiple-target visual search task to both professional (airport security officers) and nonprofessional participants (members of the Duke University community) to determine how search abilities differ between these populations and what factors might predict accuracy. There were minimal overall accuracy differences, although the professionals were generally slower to respond. However, the factors that predicted accuracy varied drastically between groups; variability in search consistency-how similarly an individual searched from trial to trial in terms of speed-best explained accuracy for professional searchers (more consistent professionals were more accurate), whereas search speed-how long an individual took to complete a search when no targets were present-best explained accuracy for nonprofessional searchers (slower nonprofessionals were more accurate). These findings suggest that professional searchers may utilize different search strategies from those of nonprofessionals, and that search consistency, in particular, may provide a valuable tool for enhancing professional search accuracy.

Behavioural stress responses predict environmental perception in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax).

PubMed

Millot, Sandie; Cerqueira, Marco; Castanheira, Maria-Filipa; Overli, Oyvind; Oliveira, Rui F; Martins, Catarina I M

2014-01-01

Individual variation in the response to environmental challenges depends partly on innate reaction norms, partly on experience-based cognitive/emotional evaluations that individuals make of the situation. The goal of this study was to investigate whether pre-existing differences in behaviour predict the outcome of such assessment of environmental cues, using a conditioned place preference/avoidance (CPP/CPA) paradigm. A comparative vertebrate model (European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) was used, and ninety juvenile individuals were initially screened for behavioural reactivity using a net restraining test. Thereafter each individual was tested in a choice tank using net chasing as aversive stimulus or exposure to familiar conspecifics as appetitive stimulus in the preferred or non preferred side respectively (called hereafter stimulation side). Locomotor behaviour (i.e. time spent, distance travelled and swimming speed in each tank side) of each individual was recorded and analysed with video software. The results showed that fish which were previously exposed to appetitive stimulus increased significantly the time spent on the stimulation side, while aversive stimulus led to a strong decrease in time spent on the stimulation side. Moreover, this study showed clearly that proactive fish were characterised by a stronger preference for the social stimulus and when placed in a putative aversive environment showed a lower physiological stress responses than reactive fish. In conclusion, this study showed for the first time in sea bass, that the CPP/CPA paradigm can be used to assess the valence (positive vs. negative) that fish attribute to different stimuli and that individual behavioural traits is predictive of how stimuli are perceived and thus of the magnitude of preference or avoidance behaviour.

Behavioural Stress Responses Predict Environmental Perception in European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

PubMed Central

Millot, Sandie; Cerqueira, Marco; Castanheira, Maria-Filipa; Øverli, Øyvind; Oliveira, Rui F.; Martins, Catarina I. M.

2014-01-01

Individual variation in the response to environmental challenges depends partly on innate reaction norms, partly on experience-based cognitive/emotional evaluations that individuals make of the situation. The goal of this study was to investigate whether pre-existing differences in behaviour predict the outcome of such assessment of environmental cues, using a conditioned place preference/avoidance (CPP/CPA) paradigm. A comparative vertebrate model (European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) was used, and ninety juvenile individuals were initially screened for behavioural reactivity using a net restraining test. Thereafter each individual was tested in a choice tank using net chasing as aversive stimulus or exposure to familiar conspecifics as appetitive stimulus in the preferred or non preferred side respectively (called hereafter stimulation side). Locomotor behaviour (i.e. time spent, distance travelled and swimming speed in each tank side) of each individual was recorded and analysed with video software. The results showed that fish which were previously exposed to appetitive stimulus increased significantly the time spent on the stimulation side, while aversive stimulus led to a strong decrease in time spent on the stimulation side. Moreover, this study showed clearly that proactive fish were characterised by a stronger preference for the social stimulus and when placed in a putative aversive environment showed a lower physiological stress responses than reactive fish. In conclusion, this study showed for the first time in sea bass, that the CPP/CPA paradigm can be used to assess the valence (positive vs. negative) that fish attribute to different stimuli and that individual behavioural traits is predictive of how stimuli are perceived and thus of the magnitude of preference or avoidance behaviour. PMID:25264870

Assessing the expected response to genomic selection of individuals and families in Eucalyptus breeding with an additive-dominant model.

PubMed

Resende, R T; Resende, M D V; Silva, F F; Azevedo, C F; Takahashi, E K; Silva-Junior, O B; Grattapaglia, D

2017-10-01

We report a genomic selection (GS) study of growth and wood quality traits in an outbred F 2 hybrid Eucalyptus population (n=768) using high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping. Going beyond previous reports in forest trees, models were developed for different selection targets, namely, families, individuals within families and individuals across the entire population using a genomic model including dominance. To provide a more breeder-intelligible assessment of the performance of GS we calculated the expected response as the percentage gain over the population average expected genetic value (EGV) for different proportions of genomically selected individuals, using a rigorous cross-validation (CV) scheme that removed relatedness between training and validation sets. Predictive abilities (PAs) were 0.40-0.57 for individual selection and 0.56-0.75 for family selection. PAs under an additive+dominance model improved predictions by 5 to 14% for growth depending on the selection target, but no improvement was seen for wood traits. The good performance of GS with no relatedness in CV suggested that our average SNP density (~25 kb) captured some short-range linkage disequilibrium. Truncation GS successfully selected individuals with an average EGV significantly higher than the population average. Response to GS on a per year basis was ~100% more efficient than by phenotypic selection and more so with higher selection intensities. These results contribute further experimental data supporting the positive prospects of GS in forest trees. Because generation times are long, traits are complex and costs of DNA genotyping are plummeting, genomic prediction has good perspectives of adoption in tree breeding practice.

Behavior, nutrition and lifestyle in a comprehensive health and disease paradigm: skills and knowledge for a predictive, preventive and personalized medicine

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Health and disease of individuals and of populations are the result of three groups of risk factors: genetics, environment and behavior. Assessment, interventions and tailored changes are possible with integrated approaches more effective if respectful of individuals and different cultures. Assessment tools and integrated interventional strategies are available, but widespread knowledge, skills and competence of well trained individual Medical Doctors still lack. Mediterranean diet is an appropriate reference paradigm because encompasses consistent research background, affordable sustainability, widespread comprehensibility and attractiveness inside a cultural framework of competences and skills in which the Medical Doctors can personally manage the need of prediction (early diagnosis), prevention (intervention on healthy persons) and tailored therapy and follow-up for patients. This profile is flexible and adjustable according to specific needs and preferences due to different economic and ethno-cultural milieus. It can enhanced through on-site/e-learning Continuous Medical Education (CME), by training and using friendly and affordable equipments. PMID:22738244

Behavior, nutrition and lifestyle in a comprehensive health and disease paradigm: skills and knowledge for a predictive, preventive and personalized medicine.

PubMed

Trovato, Guglielmo M

2012-03-22

Health and disease of individuals and of populations are the result of three groups of risk factors: genetics, environment and behavior. Assessment, interventions and tailored changes are possible with integrated approaches more effective if respectful of individuals and different cultures. Assessment tools and integrated interventional strategies are available, but widespread knowledge, skills and competence of well trained individual Medical Doctors still lack. Mediterranean diet is an appropriate reference paradigm because encompasses consistent research background, affordable sustainability, widespread comprehensibility and attractiveness inside a cultural framework of competences and skills in which the Medical Doctors can personally manage the need of prediction (early diagnosis), prevention (intervention on healthy persons) and tailored therapy and follow-up for patients. This profile is flexible and adjustable according to specific needs and preferences due to different economic and ethno-cultural milieus. It can enhanced through on-site/e-learning Continuous Medical Education (CME), by training and using friendly and affordable equipments.

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

PubMed

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Individual differences in mathematical competence predict parietal brain activation during mental calculation.

PubMed

Grabner, Roland H; Ansari, Daniel; Reishofer, Gernot; Stern, Elsbeth; Ebner, Franz; Neuper, Christa

2007-11-01

Functional neuroimaging studies have revealed that parietal brain circuits subserve arithmetic problem solving and that their recruitment dynamically changes as a function of training and development. The present study investigated whether the brain activation during mental calculation is also modulated by individual differences in mathematical competence. Twenty-five adult students were selected from a larger pool based on their performance on standardized tests of intelligence and arithmetic and divided into groups of individuals with relatively lower and higher mathematical competence. These groups did not differ in their non-numerical intelligence or age. In an fMRI block-design, participants had to verify the correctness of single-digit and multi-digit multiplication problems. Analyses revealed that the individuals with higher mathematical competence displayed stronger activation of the left angular gyrus while solving both types of arithmetic problems. Additional correlational analyses corroborated the association between individual differences in mathematical competence and angular gyrus activation, even when variability in task performance was controlled for. These findings demonstrate that the recruitment of the left angular gyrus during arithmetic problem solving underlies individual differences in mathematical ability and suggests a stronger reliance on automatic, language-mediated processes in more competent individuals.

Individual Differences in Executive Function and Central Coherence Predict Developmental Changes in Theory of Mind in Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pellicano, Elizabeth

2010-01-01

There is strong evidence to suggest that individuals with autism show atypicalities in multiple cognitive domains, including theory of mind (ToM), executive function (EF), and central coherence (CC). In this study, the longitudinal relationships among these 3 aspects of cognition in autism were investigated. Thirty-seven cognitively able children…

Cognitive Control Influences the Use of Meaning Relations during Spoken Sentence Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boudewyn, Megan A.; Long, Debra L.; Swaab, Tamara Y.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate individual differences in the influence of lexical association on word recognition during auditory sentence processing. Lexical associations among individual words (e.g. salt and pepper) represent one type of semantic information that is available during the processing of words in context. We predicted that…

Individual Differences in (Non-Visual) Processing Style Predict the Face Inversion Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyer, Natalie A.; Martin, Douglas; Pickup, Tracey; Macrae, C. Neil

2012-01-01

Recent research suggests that individuals with relatively weak global precedence (i.e., a smaller propensity to view visual stimuli in a configural manner) show a reduced face inversion effect (FIE). Coupled with such findings, a number of recent studies have demonstrated links between an advantage for feature-based processing and the presentation…

The Origins of Individual Differences in How Learning Is Expressed in Rats: A General-Process Perspective

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Laboratory rats can exhibit marked, qualitative individual differences in the form of acquired behaviors. For example, when exposed to a signal-reinforcer relationship some rats show marked and consistent changes in sign-tracking (interacting with the signal; e.g., a lever) and others show marked and consistent changes in goal-tracking (interacting with the location of the predicted reinforcer; e.g., the food well). Here, stable individual differences in rats’ sign-tracking and goal-tracking emerged over the course of training, but these differences did not generalize across different signal-reinforcer relationships (Experiment 1). This selectivity suggests that individual differences in sign- and goal-tracking reflect differences in the value placed on individual reinforcers. Two findings provide direct support for this interpretation: the palatability of a reinforcer (as measured by an analysis of lick-cluster size) was positively correlated with goal-tracking (and negatively correlated with sign-tracking); and sating rats with a reinforcer affected goal-tracking but not sign-tracking (Experiment 2). These results indicate that the observed individual differences in sign- and goal-tracking behavior arise from the interaction between the palatability or value of the reinforcer and processes of association as opposed to dispositional differences (e.g., in sensory processes, “temperament,” or response repertoire). PMID:27732045

Spontaneous individual differences in cognitive performances of young adult rats predict locomotor response to amphetamine.

PubMed

Dellu-Hagedorn, F

2005-01-01

Inter-individual differences in cognitive capacities of young adult rats have largely been ignored. To explore this variability and its neurobiological bases, the relationships between individual differences in working memory and locomotor responses to novelty and to amphetamine were investigated in SD rats. Groups of good and poor learners were isolated, the latter demonstrating a markedly slower learning of the task compared to performant rats, with more perseverations independently to motivational state. They also presented a much higher increase in amphetamine-induced locomotion that remained significant for more than 1h after the injection. These results provide evidence that variability in cognitive capacities can be used to reveal their neurobiological substrates. They open new perspectives to study a possible cognitive origin of addictive behaviors and to investigate the involvement of these inter-individual differences on those observed later in life.

Individual differences in current events knowledge: contributions of ability, personality, and interests.

PubMed

Hambrick, David Z; Meinz, Elizabeth J; Oswald, Frederick L

2007-03-01

What accounts for individual differences in the sort of knowledge that people may draw on in everyday cognitive tasks, such as deciding whom to vote for in a presidential election, how to invest money in the stock market, or what team to bet on in a friendly wager? In a large sample of undergraduate students, we investigated correlates of individual differences in recently acquired knowledge of current events in domains such as politics, business, and sports. Structural equation modeling revealed two predictive pathways: one involving cognitive ability factors and the other involving two major nonability factors (personality and interests). The results of this study add to what is known about the sources of individual differences in knowledge and are interpreted in the context of theoretical conceptions of adult intelligence that emphasize the centrality and importance of knowledge (e.g., Ackerman, 1996; Cattell, 1971).

A comparative study of family-specific protein-ligand complex affinity prediction based on random forest approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Guo, Yanzhi; Kuang, Qifan; Pu, Xuemei; Ji, Yue; Zhang, Zhihang; Li, Menglong

2015-04-01

The assessment of binding affinity between ligands and the target proteins plays an essential role in drug discovery and design process. As an alternative to widely used scoring approaches, machine learning methods have also been proposed for fast prediction of the binding affinity with promising results, but most of them were developed as all-purpose models despite of the specific functions of different protein families, since proteins from different function families always have different structures and physicochemical features. In this study, we proposed a random forest method to predict the protein-ligand binding affinity based on a comprehensive feature set covering protein sequence, binding pocket, ligand structure and intermolecular interaction. Feature processing and compression was respectively implemented for different protein family datasets, which indicates that different features contribute to different models, so individual representation for each protein family is necessary. Three family-specific models were constructed for three important protein target families of HIV-1 protease, trypsin and carbonic anhydrase respectively. As a comparison, two generic models including diverse protein families were also built. The evaluation results show that models on family-specific datasets have the superior performance to those on the generic datasets and the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients ( R p and Rs) on the test sets are 0.740, 0.874, 0.735 and 0.697, 0.853, 0.723 for HIV-1 protease, trypsin and carbonic anhydrase respectively. Comparisons with the other methods further demonstrate that individual representation and model construction for each protein family is a more reasonable way in predicting the affinity of one particular protein family.

Socioeconomic Gradients Predict Individual Differences in Neurocognitive Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noble, Kimberly G.; McCandliss, Bruce D.; Farah, Martha J.

2007-01-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with childhood cognitive achievement. In previous research we found that this association shows neural specificity; specifically we found that groups of low and middle SES children differed disproportionately in perisylvian/language and prefrontal/executive abilities relative to other neurocognitive…

Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

2015-10-01

. Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores Predict Reading Performance Throughout the School Years.

PubMed

Selzam, Saskia; Dale, Philip S; Wagner, Richard K; DeFries, John C; Cederlöf, Martin; O'Reilly, Paul F; Krapohl, Eva; Plomin, Robert

2017-07-04

It is now possible to create individual-specific genetic scores, called genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS). We used a GPS for years of education ( EduYears ) to predict reading performance assessed at UK National Curriculum Key Stages 1 (age 7), 2 (age 12) and 3 (age 14) and on reading tests administered at ages 7 and 12 in a UK sample of 5,825 unrelated individuals. EduYears GPS accounts for up to 5% of the variance in reading performance at age 14. GPS predictions remained significant after accounting for general cognitive ability and family socioeconomic status. Reading performance of children in the lowest and highest 12.5% of the EduYears GPS distribution differed by a mean growth in reading ability of approximately two school years. It seems certain that polygenic scores will be used to predict strengths and weaknesses in education.

Ultrasonographic measurements of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in prediction of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Mathiesen, E B; Johnsen, S H

2009-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque measurements are widely used to quantify atherosclerosis and assess the risk of future stroke, and are used as surrogate endpoints for clinical disease. In recent years, it has become clear that carotid IMT and plaque reflect biologically and genetically different aspects of the atherosclerotic process, and are differentially related to risk factors and cardiovascular disease. Plaques are focal manifestations of atherosclerosis while increased IMT represents mainly hypertensive medial hypertrophy. Several prospective studies have showed that IMT and plaque measurements, such as total plaque area and plaque number, are predictive of future stroke. Plaque echogenicity predicts future stroke independent of plaque size. The contribution of IMT and plaque measurements in individual stroke risk prediction in the general population seems to be limited, but may be useful as a tool for individual stratification of high-risk patients.

Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores Predict Reading Performance Throughout the School Years

PubMed Central

Selzam, Saskia; Dale, Philip S.; Wagner, Richard K.; DeFries, John C.; Cederlöf, Martin; O’Reilly, Paul F.; Krapohl, Eva; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT It is now possible to create individual-specific genetic scores, called genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS). We used a GPS for years of education (EduYears) to predict reading performance assessed at UK National Curriculum Key Stages 1 (age 7), 2 (age 12) and 3 (age 14) and on reading tests administered at ages 7 and 12 in a UK sample of 5,825 unrelated individuals. EduYears GPS accounts for up to 5% of the variance in reading performance at age 14. GPS predictions remained significant after accounting for general cognitive ability and family socioeconomic status. Reading performance of children in the lowest and highest 12.5% of the EduYears GPS distribution differed by a mean growth in reading ability of approximately two school years. It seems certain that polygenic scores will be used to predict strengths and weaknesses in education. PMID:28706435

Individual behavioral and neurochemical markers of unadapted decision-making processes in healthy inbred mice.

PubMed

Pittaras, Elsa; Callebert, Jacques; Chennaoui, Mounir; Rabat, Arnaud; Granon, Sylvie

2016-12-01

One of the hallmarks of decision-making processes is the inter-individual variability between healthy subjects. These behavioral patterns could constitute risk factors for the development of psychiatric disorders. Therefore, finding predictive markers of safe or risky decision-making is an important challenge for psychiatry research. We set up a mouse gambling task (MGT)-adapted from the human Iowa gambling task with uncertain contingencies between response and outcome that furthermore enables the emergence of inter-individual differences. Mice (n = 54) were further individually characterized for locomotive, emotional and cognitive behavior. Individual basal rates of monoamines and brain activation after the MGT were assessed in brain regions related to reward, emotion or cognition. In a large healthy mice population, 44 % showed a balanced strategy with limited risk-taking and flexible choices, 29 % showed a safe but rigid strategy, while 27 % adopted risky behavior. Risky mice took also more risks in other apparatus behavioral devices and were less sensitive to reward. No difference existed between groups regarding anxiety, working memory, locomotion and impulsivity. Safe/rigid mice exhibited a hypoactivation of prefrontal subareas, a high level of serotonin in the orbitofrontal cortex combined with a low level of dopamine in the putamen that predicted the emergence of rigid behavior. By contrast, high levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenalin in the hippocampus predicted the emergence of more exploratory and risky behaviors. The coping of C57bl/6J mice in MGT enables the determination of extreme patterns of choices either safe/rigid or risky/flexible, related to specific neurochemical and behavioral markers.

A Complex Story: Universal Preference vs. Individual Differences Shaping Aesthetic Response to Fractals Patterns

PubMed Central

Street, Nichola; Forsythe, Alexandra M.; Reilly, Ronan; Taylor, Richard; Helmy, Mai S.

2016-01-01

Fractal patterns offer one way to represent the rough complexity of the natural world. Whilst they dominate many of our visual experiences in nature, little large-scale perceptual research has been done to explore how we respond aesthetically to these patterns. Previous research (Taylor et al., 2011) suggests that the fractal patterns with mid-range fractal dimensions (FDs) have universal aesthetic appeal. Perceptual and aesthetic responses to visual complexity have been more varied with findings suggesting both linear (Forsythe et al., 2011) and curvilinear (Berlyne, 1970) relationships. Individual differences have been found to account for many of the differences we see in aesthetic responses but some, such as culture, have received little attention within the fractal and complexity research fields. This two-study article aims to test preference responses to FD and visual complexity, using a large cohort (N = 443) of participants from around the world to allow universality claims to be tested. It explores the extent to which age, culture and gender can predict our preferences for fractally complex patterns. Following exploratory analysis that found strong correlations between FD and visual complexity, a series of linear mixed-effect models were implemented to explore if each of the individual variables could predict preference. The first tested a linear complexity model (likelihood of selecting the more complex image from the pair of images) and the second a mid-range FD model (likelihood of selecting an image within mid-range). Results show that individual differences can reliably predict preferences for complexity across culture, gender and age. However, in fitting with current findings the mid-range models show greater consistency in preference not mediated by gender, age or culture. This article supports the established theory that the mid-range fractal patterns appear to be a universal construct underlying preference but also highlights the fragility of universal claims by demonstrating individual differences in preference for the interrelated concept of visual complexity. This highlights a current stalemate in the field of empirical aesthetics. PMID:27252634

Predicting Douglas-fir's response to a warming climate

Treesearch

Andrea Watts; Sheel Bansal; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair

2015-01-01

Douglas-fir is an iconic tree in the Pacific Northwest. Although individual trees may appear to be identical, genetic differences within each tree have resulted from adaptation to the local environment. These genetic differences over time have resulted in differences among populations that are important to the species' survival and growth in changing climates....

Prediction of interindividual differences in hepatic functions and drug sensitivity by using human iPS-derived hepatocytes.

PubMed

Takayama, Kazuo; Morisaki, Yuta; Kuno, Shuichi; Nagamoto, Yasuhito; Harada, Kazuo; Furukawa, Norihisa; Ohtaka, Manami; Nishimura, Ken; Imagawa, Kazuo; Sakurai, Fuminori; Tachibana, Masashi; Sumazaki, Ryo; Noguchi, Emiko; Nakanishi, Mahito; Hirata, Kazumasa; Kawabata, Kenji; Mizuguchi, Hiroyuki

2014-11-25

Interindividual differences in hepatic metabolism, which are mainly due to genetic polymorphism in its gene, have a large influence on individual drug efficacy and adverse reaction. Hepatocyte-like cells (HLCs) differentiated from human induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells have the potential to predict interindividual differences in drug metabolism capacity and drug response. However, it remains uncertain whether human iPSC-derived HLCs can reproduce the interindividual difference in hepatic metabolism and drug response. We found that cytochrome P450 (CYP) metabolism capacity and drug responsiveness of the primary human hepatocytes (PHH)-iPS-HLCs were highly correlated with those of PHHs, suggesting that the PHH-iPS-HLCs retained donor-specific CYP metabolism capacity and drug responsiveness. We also demonstrated that the interindividual differences, which are due to the diversity of individual SNPs in the CYP gene, could also be reproduced in PHH-iPS-HLCs. We succeeded in establishing, to our knowledge, the first PHH-iPS-HLC panel that reflects the interindividual differences of hepatic drug-metabolizing capacity and drug responsiveness.

Individual Differences in Newborn Visual Attention Associate with Temperament and Behavioral Difficulties in Later Childhood.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Kostas A; Farroni, Teresa; Johnson, Mark H; Smith, Tim J; Ronald, Angelica

2015-06-25

Recently it was shown that individual differences in attention style in infants are associated with childhood effortful control, surgency, and hyperactivity-inattention. Here we investigated whether effortful control, surgency and behavioral problems in childhood can be predicted even earlier, from individual differences in newborns' average duration of gaze to stimuli. Eighty newborns participated in visual preference and habituation studies. Parents completed questionnaires at follow up (mean age = 7.5 years, SD = 1.0 year). Newborns' average dwell time was negatively associated with childhood surgency (β = -.25, R(2) = .04, p = .02) and total behavioral difficulties (β = -.28, R(2) = .05, p = .04) but not with effortful control (β = .03, R(2) = .001, p = .76). Individual differences in newborn visual attention significantly associated with individual variation in childhood surgency and behavioral problems, showing that some of the factors responsible for this variation are present at birth.

Individual Differences in Newborn Visual Attention Associate with Temperament and Behavioral Difficulties in Later Childhood

PubMed Central

Papageorgiou, Kostas A.; Farroni, Teresa; Johnson, Mark H.; Smith, Tim J.; Ronald, Angelica

2015-01-01

Recently it was shown that individual differences in attention style in infants are associated with childhood effortful control, surgency, and hyperactivity-inattention. Here we investigated whether effortful control, surgency and behavioral problems in childhood can be predicted even earlier, from individual differences in newborns’ average duration of gaze to stimuli. Eighty newborns participated in visual preference and habituation studies. Parents completed questionnaires at follow up (mean age = 7.5 years, SD = 1.0 year). Newborns’ average dwell time was negatively associated with childhood surgency (β = −.25, R2 = .04, p = .02) and total behavioral difficulties (β = −.28, R2 = .05, p = .04) but not with effortful control (β = .03, R2 = .001, p = .76). Individual differences in newborn visual attention significantly associated with individual variation in childhood surgency and behavioral problems, showing that some of the factors responsible for this variation are present at birth. PMID:26110979

Individual differences in learning predict the return of fear.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Hartley, Catherine A

2015-09-01

Using a laboratory analogue of learned fear (Pavlovian fear conditioning), we show that there is substantial heterogeneity across individuals in spontaneous recovery of fear following extinction training. We propose that this heterogeneity might stem from qualitative individual differences in the nature of extinction learning. Whereas some individuals tend to form a new memory during extinction, leaving their fear memory intact, others update the original threat association with new safety information, effectively unlearning the fear memory. We formalize this account in a computational model of fear learning and show that individuals who, according to the model, are more likely to form new extinction memories tend to show greater spontaneous recovery compared to individuals who appear to only update a single memory. This qualitative variation in fear and extinction learning may have important implications for understanding vulnerability and resilience to fear-related psychiatric disorders.

Using beta binomials to estimate classification uncertainty for ensemble models.

PubMed

Clark, Robert D; Liang, Wenkel; Lee, Adam C; Lawless, Michael S; Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Waldman, Marvin

2014-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity (QSAR) models have enormous potential for reducing drug discovery and development costs as well as the need for animal testing. Great strides have been made in estimating their overall reliability, but to fully realize that potential, researchers and regulators need to know how confident they can be in individual predictions. Submodels in an ensemble model which have been trained on different subsets of a shared training pool represent multiple samples of the model space, and the degree of agreement among them contains information on the reliability of ensemble predictions. For artificial neural network ensembles (ANNEs) using two different methods for determining ensemble classification - one using vote tallies and the other averaging individual network outputs - we have found that the distribution of predictions across positive vote tallies can be reasonably well-modeled as a beta binomial distribution, as can the distribution of errors. Together, these two distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a given predictive classification will be in error. Large data sets comprised of logP, Ames mutagenicity, and CYP2D6 inhibition data are used to illustrate and validate the method. The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced. Moreover, the likelihood of a given compound being prospectively misclassified as a function of the degree of consensus between networks in the ensemble could in most cases be estimated accurately from the fitted beta binomial distributions for the training pool. Confidence in an individual predictive classification by an ensemble model can be accurately assessed by examining the distributions of predictions and errors as a function of the degree of agreement among the constituent submodels. Further, ensemble uncertainty estimation can often be improved by adjusting the voting or classification threshold based on the parameters of the error distribution. Finally, the profiles for models whose predictive uncertainty estimates are not reliable provide clues to that effect without the need for comparison to an external test set.

Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

2004-01-01

Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

Revisiting the impact of job satisfaction and organizational commitment on nurse turnover intention: an individual differences analysis.

PubMed

De Gieter, Sara; Hofmans, Joeri; Pepermans, Roland

2011-12-01

Nurse turnover is an important contributing factor to the worldwide nursing shortage. Many studies have examined the antecedents of nurse turnover to gain a better understanding of the problem and help hospitals reduce their turnover rates. However, an important shortcoming of this research stream is its exclusive focus on explaining turnover behavior of the "average nurse", thereby disregarding individual differences between nurses and groups of nurses. To examine individual differences in the relationships between two crucial turnover antecedents - job satisfaction and organizational commitment - and nurse turnover intention. A sample of 287 nurses working for a variety of Belgian hospitals participated in the study. A survey method was used to collect quantitative data, which were analyzed through standard multiple linear regression, mixture regression models and t-tests. In the total sample of hospital nurses, both job satisfaction and organizational commitment significantly predicted nurse turnover intention. However, subsequent individual differences analyses revealed the existence of two subgroups of nurses. In the satisfaction focused group, only job satisfaction was found to predict nurse turnover intention, whereas in the satisfaction and commitment focused group both job satisfaction and organizational commitment were related to turnover intention. Furthermore, nurses in the latter group displayed stronger turnover intention, were significantly younger and had less job tenure and organizational tenure than nurses in the satisfaction focused group. The debate on the antecedents of nurse turnover still continues, as the existing models fail to fully grasp nurse turnover. The present study identifies individual differences in nurse turnover antecedents among groups of nurses as a possible reason for the absence of one comprehensive turnover model that holds for the general nursing population. Further studies are needed in order to capture the total impact of the underlying individual differences in nurse turnover antecedents. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garber, Donald P.; Willshire, William L., Jr.

1994-01-01

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Real-ear-to-coupler difference predictions as a function of age for two coupling procedures.

PubMed

Bagatto, Marlene P; Scollie, Susan D; Seewald, Richard C; Moodie, K Shane; Hoover, Brenda M

2002-09-01

The predicted real-ear-to-coupler difference (RECD) values currently used in pediatric hearing instrument prescription methods are based on 12-month age range categories and were derived from measures using standard acoustic immittance probe tips. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to develop normative RECD predicted values for foam/acoustic immittance tips and custom earmolds across the age continuum. To this end, RECD data were collected on 392 infants and children (141 with acoustic immittance tips, 251 with earmolds) to develop normative regression equations for use in deriving continuous age predictions of RECDs for foam/acoustic immittance tips and earmolds. Owing to the substantial between-subject variability observed in the data, the predictive equations of RECDs by age (in months) resulted in only gross estimates of RECD values (i.e., within +/- 4.4 dB for 95% of acoustic immittance tip measures; within +/- 5.4 dB in 95% of measures with custom earmolds) across frequency. Thus, it is concluded that the estimates derived from this study should not be used to replace the more precise individual RECD measurements. Relative to previously available normative RECD values for infants and young children, however, the estimates derived through this study provide somewhat more accurate predicted values for use under those circumstances for which individual RECD measurements cannot be made.

Specificity of disgust domains in the prediction of contamination anxiety and avoidance: a multimodal examination.

PubMed

Olatunji, Bunmi O; Ebesutani, Chad; Haidt, Jonathan; Sawchuk, Craig N

2014-07-01

Although core, animal-reminder, and contamination disgust are viewed as distinct "types" of disgust vulnerabilities, the extent to which individual differences in the three disgust domains uniquely predict contamination-related anxiety and avoidance remains unclear. Three studies were conducted to fill this important gap in the literature. Study 1 was conducted to first determine if the three types of disgust could be replicated in a larger and more heterogeneous sample. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that a bifactor model consisting of a "general disgust" dimension and the three distinct disgust dimensions yielded a better fit than a one-factor model. Structural equation modeling in Study 2 showed that while latent core, animal-reminder, and contamination disgust factors each uniquely predicted a latent "contamination anxiety" factor above and beyond general disgust, only animal-reminder uniquely predicted a latent "non-contamination anxiety" factor above and beyond general disgust. However, Study 3 found that only contamination disgust uniquely predicted behavioral avoidance in a public restroom where contamination concerns are salient. These findings suggest that although the three disgust domains are associated with contamination anxiety and avoidance, individual differences in contamination disgust sensitivity appear to be most uniquely predictive of contamination-related distress. The implications of these findings for the development and maintenance of anxiety-related disorders marked by excessive contamination concerns are discussed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prediction of biomechanical parameters of the proximal femur using statistical appearance models and support vector regression.

PubMed

Fritscher, Karl; Schuler, Benedikt; Link, Thomas; Eckstein, Felix; Suhm, Norbert; Hänni, Markus; Hengg, Clemens; Schubert, Rainer

2008-01-01

Fractures of the proximal femur are one of the principal causes of mortality among elderly persons. Traditional methods for the determination of femoral fracture risk use methods for measuring bone mineral density. However, BMD alone is not sufficient to predict bone failure load for an individual patient and additional parameters have to be determined for this purpose. In this work an approach that uses statistical models of appearance to identify relevant regions and parameters for the prediction of biomechanical properties of the proximal femur will be presented. By using Support Vector Regression the proposed model based approach is capable of predicting two different biomechanical parameters accurately and fully automatically in two different testing scenarios.

Questions of time and affect: a person’s affectivity profile, time perspective, and well-being

PubMed Central

Sailer, Uta; Nima, Ali Al; Archer, Trevor

2016-01-01

Background. A “balanced” time perspective has been suggested to have a positive influence on well-being: a sentimental and positive view of the past (high Past Positive), a less pessimistic attitude toward the past (low Past Negative), the desire of experiencing pleasure with slight concern for future consequences (high Present Hedonistic), a less fatalistic and hopeless view of the future (low Present Fatalistic), and the ability to find reward in achieving specific long-term goals (high Future). We used the affective profiles model (i.e., combinations of individuals’ experience of high/low positive/negative affectivity) to investigate differences between individuals in time perspective dimensions and to investigate if the influence of time perspective dimensions on well-being was moderated by the individual’s type of profile. Method. Participants (N = 720) answered to the Positive Affect Negative Affect Schedule, the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory and two measures of well-being: the Temporal Satisfaction with Life Scale and Ryff’s Scales of Psychological Well-Being-short version. A Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was conducted to identify differences in time perspective dimensions and well-being among individuals with distinct affective profiles. Four structural equation models (SEM) were used to investigate which time perspective dimensions predicted well-being for individuals in each profile. Results. Comparisons between individuals at the extreme of the affective profiles model suggested that individuals with a self-fulfilling profile (high positive/low negative affect) were characterized by a “balanced” time perspective and higher well-being compared to individuals with a self-destructive profile (low positive/high negative affect). However, a different pattern emerged when individuals who differed in one affect dimension but matched in the other were compared to each other. For instance, decreases in the past negative time perspective dimension lead to high positive affect when negative affect is high (i.e., self-destructive vs. high affective) but to low negative affect when positive affect was high (i.e., high affective vs. self-fulfilling). The moderation analyses showed, for example, that for individuals with a self-destructive profile, psychological well-being was significantly predicted by the past negative, present fatalistic and future time perspectives. Among individuals with a high affective or a self-fulfilling profile, psychological well-being was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic dimension. Conclusions. The interactions found here go beyond the postulation of a “balanced” time perspective being the only way to promote well-being. Instead, we present a more person-centered approach to achieve higher levels of emotional, cognitive, and psychological well-being. PMID:27019786

The Relationship Between Social Support and Subjective Well-Being Across Age

PubMed Central

Salthouse, Timothy A.; Oishi, Shigehiro; Jeswani, Sheena

2014-01-01

The relationships among types of social support and different facets of subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect) were examined in a sample of 1,111 individuals between the ages of 18 and 95. Using structural equation modeling we found that life satisfaction was predicted by enacted and perceived support, positive affect was predicted by family embeddedness and provided support, and negative affect was predicted by perceived support. When personality variables were included in a subsequent model, the influence of the social support variables were generally reduced. Invariance analyses conducted across age groups indicated that there were no substantial differences in predictors of the different types of subjective well-being across age. PMID:25045200

Can human experts predict solubility better than computers?

PubMed

Boobier, Samuel; Osbourn, Anne; Mitchell, John B O

2017-12-13

In this study, we design and carry out a survey, asking human experts to predict the aqueous solubility of druglike organic compounds. We investigate whether these experts, drawn largely from the pharmaceutical industry and academia, can match or exceed the predictive power of algorithms. Alongside this, we implement 10 typical machine learning algorithms on the same dataset. The best algorithm, a variety of neural network known as a multi-layer perceptron, gave an RMSE of 0.985 log S units and an R 2 of 0.706. We would not have predicted the relative success of this particular algorithm in advance. We found that the best individual human predictor generated an almost identical prediction quality with an RMSE of 0.942 log S units and an R 2 of 0.723. The collection of algorithms contained a higher proportion of reasonably good predictors, nine out of ten compared with around half of the humans. We found that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median generated excellent predictivity. While our consensus human predictor achieved very slightly better headline figures on various statistical measures, the difference between it and the consensus machine learning predictor was both small and statistically insignificant. We conclude that human experts can predict the aqueous solubility of druglike molecules essentially equally well as machine learning algorithms. We find that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median is a powerful way of benefitting from the wisdom of crowds.

Environment-dependence of behavioural consistency in adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis)

PubMed Central

Urszán, Tamás János; Bajer, Katalin; Molnár, Orsolya; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Herczeg, Gábor

2017-01-01

Understanding the background mechanisms affecting the emergence and maintenance of consistent between-individual variation within population in single (animal personality) or across multiple (behavioural syndrome) behaviours has key importance. State-dependence theory suggests that behaviour is ‘anchored’ to individual state (e.g. body condition, gender, age) and behavioural consistency emerges through behavioural-state feedbacks. A number of relevant state variables are labile (e.g. body condition, physiological performance) and expected to be affected by short-term environmental change. Yet, whether short-term environmental shifts affect behavioural consistency during adulthood remains questionable. Here, by employing a full-factorial laboratory experiment, we explored if quantity of food (low vs. high) and time available for thermoregulation (3h vs. 10h per day) had an effect on activity and risk-taking of reproductive adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis). We focussed on different components of behavioural variation: (i) strength of behavioural consistency (repeatability for animal personality; between-individual correlation for behavioural syndrome), (ii) behavioural type (individual mean behaviour) and (iii) behavioural predictability (within-individual behavioural variation). Activity was repeatable in all treatments. Risk-taking was repeatable only in the low basking treatments. We found significant between-individual correlation only in the low food × long basking time group. The treatments did not affect behavioural type, but affected behavioural predictability. Activity predictability was higher in the short basking treatment, where it also decreased with size (≈ age). Risk-taking predictability in the short basking treatment increased with size under food limitation, but decreased when food supply was high. We conclude that short-term environmental change can alter various components of behavioural consistency. The effect could be detected in the presence/absence patterns of animal personality and behavioural syndrome and the level of individual behavioural predictability, but not in behavioural type. PMID:29112964

Assessment of sexual orientation using the hemodynamic brain response to visual sexual stimuli.

PubMed

Ponseti, Jorge; Granert, Oliver; Jansen, Olav; Wolff, Stephan; Mehdorn, Hubertus; Bosinski, Hartmut; Siebner, Hartwig

2009-06-01

The assessment of sexual orientation is of importance to the diagnosis and treatment of sex offenders and paraphilic disorders. Phallometry is considered gold standard in objectifying sexual orientation, yet this measurement has been criticized because of its intrusiveness and limited reliability. To evaluate whether the spatial response pattern to sexual stimuli as revealed by a change in blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal can be used for individual classification of sexual orientation. We used a preexisting functional MRI (fMRI) data set that had been acquired in a nonclinical sample of 12 heterosexual men and 14 homosexual men. During fMRI, participants were briefly exposed to pictures of same-sex and opposite-sex genitals. Data analysis involved four steps: (i) differences in the BOLD response to female and male sexual stimuli were calculated for each subject; (ii) these contrast images were entered into a group analysis to calculate whole-brain difference maps between homosexual and heterosexual participants; (iii) a single expression value was computed for each subject expressing its correspondence to the group result; and (iv) based on these expression values, Fisher's linear discriminant analysis and the kappa-nearest neighbor classification method were used to predict the sexual orientation of each subject. Sensitivity and specificity of the two classification methods in predicting individual sexual orientation. Both classification methods performed well in predicting individual sexual orientation with a mean accuracy of >85% (Fisher's linear discriminant analysis: 92% sensitivity, 85% specificity; kappa-nearest neighbor classification: 88% sensitivity, 92% specificity). Despite the small sample size, the functional response patterns of the brain to sexual stimuli contained sufficient information to predict individual sexual orientation with high accuracy. These results suggest that fMRI-based classification methods hold promise for the diagnosis of paraphilic disorders (e.g., pedophilia).

Individual differences in fundamental social motives.

PubMed

Neel, Rebecca; Kenrick, Douglas T; White, Andrew Edward; Neuberg, Steven L

2016-06-01

Motivation has long been recognized as an important component of how people both differ from, and are similar to, each other. The current research applies the biologically grounded fundamental social motives framework, which assumes that human motivational systems are functionally shaped to manage the major costs and benefits of social life, to understand individual differences in social motives. Using the Fundamental Social Motives Inventory, we explore the relations among the different fundamental social motives of Self-Protection, Disease Avoidance, Affiliation, Status, Mate Seeking, Mate Retention, and Kin Care; the relationships of the fundamental social motives to other individual difference and personality measures including the Big Five personality traits; the extent to which fundamental social motives are linked to recent life experiences; and the extent to which life history variables (e.g., age, sex, childhood environment) predict individual differences in the fundamental social motives. Results suggest that the fundamental social motives are a powerful lens through which to examine individual differences: They are grounded in theory, have explanatory value beyond that of the Big Five personality traits, and vary meaningfully with a number of life history variables. A fundamental social motives approach provides a generative framework for considering the meaning and implications of individual differences in social motivation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).