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Sample records for predicting long-term creep

  1. Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

    2012-02-01

    The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

  2. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  3. Estimation of long-term creep behavior of salt

    SciTech Connect

    Chun, R.C.

    1980-08-01

    A computer routine for both primary and secondary creep laws has been developed using a modified strain hardening law. The computations reveal that results from Heard's steady-state creep law and Lomenick and Bradshaw's primary creep law can differ from each other by a factor of thirty after about 6 hours of creep deformation, but the difference diminishes as time becomes large. The belief that these two creep laws may yield long-term results that are orders of magnitude apart is shown to be unfounded.

  4. Effect of interconnect creep on long-term performance of SOFC of one cell stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2008-02-01

    Creep deformation becomes relevant for a material when the operating temperature is near or exceeds half of its melting temperature (in degrees of Kelvin). The operating temperatures for most of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) under development in the SECA program are around 1073oK. High temperature ferritic alloys are potential candidates as interconnect (IC) materials and spacers due to their low cost and CTE compatibility with other SOFC components. Since the melting temperature of most stainless steel is around 1800oK, possible creep deformation of IC under the typical cell operating temperature should not be neglected. In this paper, the effects of interconnect creep behavior on stack geometry change and stress redistribution of different cell components are predicted and summarized. The goal of the study is to investigate the performance of the fuel cell stack by obtaining the fuel and air channel geometry changes due to creep of the ferritic stainless steel interconnect, therefore indicating possible SOFC performance change under long term operations. IC creep models were incorporated into SOFC-MP and Mentat FC, and finite element analyses were performed to quantify the deformed configuration of the SOFC stack under the long term steady state operating temperature. It is found that creep behavior of the ferritic stainless steel IC contributes to narrowing of both the fuel and the air flow channels. In addition, stress re-distribution of the cell components suggests the need for a compliant sealing material that also relaxes at operating temperature.

  5. Barrier and long term creep properties of polymer nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranade, Ajit

    The barrier properties and long term strength retention of polymers are of significant importance in a number of applications. Enhanced lifetime food packaging, substrates for OLED based flexible displays and long duration scientific balloons are among them. Higher material requirements in these applications drive the need for an accurate measurement system. Therefore, a new system was engineered with enhanced sensitivity and accuracy. Permeability of polymers is affected by permeant solubility and diffusion. One effort to decrease diffusion rates is via increasing the transport path length. We explore this through dispersion of layered silicates into polymers. Layered silicates with effective aspect ratio of 1000:1 have shown promise in improving the barrier and mechanical properties of polymers. The surface of these inorganic silicates was modified with surfactants to improve the interaction with organic polymers. The micro and nanoscale dispersion of the layered silicates was probed using optical and transmission microscopy as well as x-ray diffraction. Thermal transitions were analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry. Mechanical and permeability measurements were correlated to the dispersion and increased density. The essential structure-property relationships were established by comparing semicrystalline and amorphous polymers. Semicrystalline polymers selected were nylon-6 and polyethylene terephthalate. The amorphous polymer was polyethylene terphthalate-glycol. Densification due to the layered silicate in both semicrystalline and amorphous polymers was associated with significant impact on barrier and long term creep behavior. The inferences were confirmed by investigating a semi-crystalline polymer---polyethylene---above and below the glass transition. The results show that the layered silicate influences the amorphous segments in polymers and barrier properties are affected by synergistic influences of densification and uniform dispersion of the

  6. Contribution of recovery mechanisms of microstructure during long-term creep of Gr.91 steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghassemi-Armaki, H.; Chen, R. P.; Maruyama, K.; Igarashi, M.

    2013-02-01

    Creep rupture life and microstructural degradation have been studied in two heats of Gr.91 steels. The coarsening of subgrains and precipitates, mainly M23C6 and MX, has been evaluated during static aging and creep. Hardness of head (static aging) and gauge (creep) portions of crept samples were measured to know their relation with microstructural degradation during long-term exposure. The correlation between subgrain size and spacing of precipitates and hardness has been equated. As an example, there is a close correlation between hardness value and inverse subgrains size in Gr.91 steels, regardless of aging or creep conditions. The appearance of three recovery mechanisms was found during long-term creep, namely: strain-induced recovery, pure static recovery and strain-assisted static recovery. By equated correlations between subgrain size, precipitates and hardness, the contribution of three recovery mechanisms to subgrain coarsening and hardness drop were calculated for two creep conditions at 700 °C in long-term creep region, where breakdown of creep strength has happen. The calculated data accord well with experimental data obtained from aged and crept samples. The contribution of static recovery to the subgrain coarsening and consequent hardness drop during long-term creep increases with increasing creep time. The significant contribution of both static recovery mechanisms can result in the breakdown of creep strength in long-term creep region.

  7. Long-Term Creep and Creep Rupture Behavior of Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Mach, A.; Jeelani, S.; Verrilli, Michael J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tensile creep behavior of SiC/SiNC ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures and at various stress levels have been investigated for turbine engine applications. The objective of this research is to present creep behavior of SiC/SiCN composites at stress levels above and below the monotonic proportional limit strength and predict the life at creep rupture conditions. Tensile creep-rupture tests were performed on an Instron 8502 servohydraulic testing machine at constant load conditions up to a temperature limit of 1000 C. Individual creep curves indicate three stages such as primary, secondary, and tertiary. The creep rate increased linearly at an early stage and then gradually became exponential at higher strains. The stress exponent and activation energy were also obtained at 700 and 1000 C. The specimen lifetime was observed to be 55 hrs at 121 MPa and at 700 C. The life span reduced to 35 hrs at 143 MPa and at 1000 C. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed significant changes in the crystalline phases and creep damage development. Creep failures were accompanied by extensive fiber pullout, matrix cracking, and debonding along with fiber fracture. The creep data was applied to Time-Temperature-Stress superposition model and the Manson-Haferd parametric model for long-time life prediction.

  8. Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, X.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Liu, Z.

    2010-09-01

    The benefit of climate Long Term Memory (LTM) for long term prediction is assessed using data from a millennium control simulation with the atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM. The forecast skills are evaluated for surface temperature time series at individual grid points. LTM is characterised by the Hurst exponent in the power-law scaling of the fluctuation function which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). LTM with a Hurst exponent close to 0.9 occurs mainly in high latitude oceans, which are also characterized by high potential predictability. Climate predictability is diagnosed in terms of potentially predictable variance fractions. Explicit prediction experiments for various time steps are conducted on a grid point basis using an auto-correlation (AR1) predictor: in regions with LTM, prediction skills are beyond that expected from red noise persistence; exceptions occur in some areas in the southern oceans and over the northern hemisphere continents. Extending the predictability analysis to the fully forced simulation shows large improvement in prediction skills.

  9. Prediction of long-term failure in Kevlar 49 composites

    SciTech Connect

    Gerstle, F.P. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Creep rupture data in Kevlar 49 epoxy usually exhibit considerable scatter: the coefficient of variation (CV) about the mean failure time at a given stress exceeds 100%. Quasi-static strength data, in contrast, shows little scatter: <4% CV for pressure vessels and <10% for impregnated strands. In this paper analysis of existing creep rupture data on Kevlar epoxy vessels at four storage pressures has produced an interesting and useful result. It was found that a significant portion of the scatter in failure times for pressure vessels is due to spool-to-spool variation in the eight spools of Kevlar fibers used to wind the vessels. The order rank of mean times to failure was consistent over a pressure range from 3400 to 4300 psi, 68 to 86% of short term burst. Also, the coefficient of variation about the mean failure time for each spool was less than that for the total sample. The statistical inference that the sample is nonhomogeneous was supported by a nonparametric check using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and by a parametric analysis of variance. The order rank found in long-term tests did not unequivocally agree with static strength ranks; several spool sets were distinctly high or low. The implication is that, while static strengths are not valid predictors of long-term behavior, short term creep rupture tests at high stress definitely are. The material difference which causes the spool-to-spool variations has not yet been identified for all eight spools. However, it appears that Kevlar behavior at lower pressures may be predicted through the use of curves fitted to the data for each spool. A power law relating failure time to pressure, t = t/sub 0/(p/p/sub 0/)/sup m/, was found to fit the data reasonably well. The implication is that, both in composite vessel design and in creep rupture experiments, the pressure (or stress) level be carefully controlled.

  10. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

  11. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  12. The prediction of long term viscoelastic properties of fiber reinforced plastics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, H. F.; Dillard, D. A.

    1982-01-01

    A method for the experimental and analytical accelerated characterization of long term viscoelastic properties is presented. The time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) is shown to serve as the basis for determining long term compliance data from short term creep test results. Nonlinear viscoelastic theories are discussed to provide the framework for the mathematically modeling of such a process. A time dependent Tsai-Hill-Zhurkov failure theory is used to determine long term failure properties from short term data. Compliance and failure data are incorporated in an incremental lamination theory to make long term laminate predictions. Comparisons are made between theory and experiment.

  13. The prediction of long term viscoelastic properties of fiber reinforced plastics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, H. F.; Dillard, D. A.

    1982-01-01

    A method for the experimental and analytical accelerated characterization of long term viscoelastic properties is presented. The time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) is shown to serve as the basis for determining long term compliance data from short term creep test results. Nonlinear viscoelastic theories are discussed to provide the framework for the mathematically modeling of such a process. A time dependent Tsai-Hill-Zhurkov failure theory is used to determine long term failure properties from short term data. Compliance and failure data are incorporated in an incremental lamination theory to make long term laminate predictions. Comparisons are made between theory and experiment.

  14. Experimental study on long-term creep preference of flexural members strengthened with prestressed CFRP plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Baojing; Shang, Shouping

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, the tensioning and anchorage experiment of CFRP was done on a 12m long steel H-beam by using a set of independent developed tensioning and anchoring device, and the strain of prestressed CFRP was observed for up to one year by using the fiber grating sensor (FBG);On the basis of indoor experiment, the reinforcement technology is applied to the real bridge reinforcement project (Xiangtan Jie-fang Bridge and Zhu-Jindu Bridge), and the long-term creep of prestressed CFRP plate on the bridge was observed and studied. Laboratory tests and the results of reinforcement project application show that: The mechanical properties of anchorage is very good, the CFRP plate produces almost no slip, and its creep is also very small, the creep behavior of the CFRP plate has little adverse influence on the strengthened structure when the set of prestressed CFRP is in long-term prestress and external loads.

  15. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    We report here a constitutive model for predicting long-term creep strain evolution in’ strengthened Ni-base superalloys. Dislocation climb-bypassing’, typical in intermediate’ volume fraction (~20%) alloys, is considered as the primary deformation mechanism. Dislocation shearing’ to anti-phase boundary (APB) faults and diffusional creep are also considered for high-stress and high-temperature low-stress conditions, respectively. Additional damage mechanism is taken into account for rapid increase in tertiary creep strain. The model has been applied to Alloy 282, and calibrated in a temperature range of 1375-1450°F, and stress range of 15-45ksi. The model parameters and a MATLAB code are provided. This report is prepared by Monica Soare and Chen Shen at GE Global Research. Technical discussions with Dr. Vito Cedro are greatly appreciated. This work was supported by DOE program DE-FE0005859

  16. Revised long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Galehouse, Jon S.

    1997-01-01

    Although the Hayward fault is a source of major earthquakes, it also creeps or slips aseismically, and has done so steadily for several decades (certainly since 1921 and probably since 1869). Most of the fault creeps between 3 and 6 mm/yr, except for a 4- to 6-km-long segment near its south end that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. We present results of our recent surveys to recover angles and deflection lines established across the fault in the 1960s and 1970s, but unmonitored since. We have added data from more offset cultural features to the long-term creep rate data set and made substantial improvements to the analytical method used to compute offsets. The revised creep rate values improve our knowledge of spatial and temporal variation along the fault. The more accurate revised data has reduced the estimate of the average creep rate along most of the fault from 5.1 mm/yr to 4.6 mm/yr. Creep rates in the 9 mm/yr section near the south end have remained the same.

  17. Bone creep and short and long term subsidence after cemented stem total hip arthroplasty (THA).

    PubMed

    Norman, T L; Shultz, T; Noble, G; Gruen, T A; Blaha, J D

    2013-03-15

    Stem-cement and cement-bone interfacial failures as well as cement fractures have been noted in cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA) as the cause of aseptic loosening. Attempts to reduce the risk of femoral component loosening include improving the stem-cement interface by various coatings, using a textured or porous coated stem surfaces or by using a tapered stem having a highly-polished surface. The latter approach, often referred to as "force-closed" femoral stem design, would theoretically result in stem stabilization subsequent to debonding and 'taper-lock'. Previous work using three-dimensional finite element analysis has shown a state of stress at the stem-cement interface indicative of 'taper-lock' for the debonded stem and indicated that stem-cement interface friction and bone cement creep played a significant role in the magnitudes of stresses and subsidence of the stem. However, the previous analysis did not include the viscoelastic properties of bone, which has been hypothesized to permit additional expansion of the bone canal and allow additional stem subsidence (Lu and McKellop, 1997). The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of bone viscoelastic behavior on stem subsidence using a 3D finite element analysis. It was hypothesized that the viscoelastic behavior of bone in the hoop direction would allow expansion of the bone reducing the constraint on bone over time and permit additional stem subsidence, which may account for the discrepancies between predicted and clinical subsidence measurements. Analyses were conducted using physiological loads, 'average peak loads' and 'high peak loads' for 'normal patient' and 'active patient' (Bergmann et al., 2010) from which short and long term subsidence was predicted. Results indicated that bone creep does contribute to higher stem subsidence initially and after 10 years of simulated loading. However, it was concluded that the "constraint" upon the cement mantle is not mitigated enough to result in

  18. Effect of Creep of Ferritic Interconnect on Long-Term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-08-01

    High-temperature ferritic alloys are potential candidates as interconnect (IC) materials and spacers due to their low cost and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) compatibility with other components for most of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) . However, creep deformation becomes relevant for a material when the operating temperature exceeds or even is less than half of its melting temperature (in degrees of Kelvin). The operating temperatures for most of the SOFCs under development are around 1,073 K. With around 1,800 K of the melting temperature for most stainless steel, possible creep deformation of ferritic IC under the typical cell operating temperature should not be neglected. In this paper, the effects of IC creep behavior on stack geometry change and the stress redistribution of different cell components are predicted and summarized. The goal of the study is to investigate the performance of the fuel cell stack by obtaining the changes in fuel- and air-channel geometry due to creep of the ferritic stainless steel IC, therefore indicating possible changes in SOFC performance under long-term operations. The ferritic IC creep model was incorporated into software SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC, and finite element analyses were performed to quantify the deformed configuration of the SOFC stack under the long-term steady-state operating temperature. It was found that the creep behavior of the ferritic stainless steel IC contributes to narrowing of both the fuel- and the air-flow channels. In addition, stress re-distribution of the cell components suggests the need for a compliant sealing material that also relaxes at operating temperature.

  19. Correction for sensor creep in the evaluation of long-term plantar pressure data.

    PubMed

    Arndt, A

    2003-12-01

    Plantar pressure measurements are frequently applied in the biomechanical assessment of lower extremity injury risk. Different conditions such as footwear, orthopedic insoles or movement tasks are usually compared by separate trials of the individual conditions. However, injury risk may be related to fatigue from long-term exercise and no actual measurements of plantar pressure during fatigue treatment have been published. A simple method is presented for determining sensor creep over a 3 h walking trial carrying a heavy load (49% of bodyweight). Plantar pressure measurements were conducted using Pedar insoles with capacitative sensors. Repeated standing trials were conducted and the total force underneath both feet measured under the assumption that this value should remain constant over time. The percentage fluctuation from the first such static measurement can be used to correct measured parameters of interest for the influence of sensor creep. The pressure sensor values increased by up to 17% after 3 h and the method presented permitted the correction of measured plantar pressure parameters to account for this sensor creep behaviour. Such correction appears necessary for correct interpretation of the fatigue effects on plantar loading. Creep correction as described here should be performed individually and separately in each long-term trial.

  20. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  1. Long-term monitoring of creep rate along the Hayward fault and evidence for a lasting creep response to 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.; Simpson, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We present results from over 30 yr of precise surveys of creep along the Hayward fault. Along most of the fault, spatial variability in long-term creep rates is well determined by these data and can help constrain 3D-models of the depth of the creeping zone. However, creep at the south end of the fault stopped completely for more than 6 years after the M7 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (LPEQ), perhaps delayed by stress drop imposed by this event. With a decade of detailed data before LPEQ and a decade after it, we report that creep response to that event does indeed indicate the expected deficit in creep.

  2. Effect of Long-Term Thermal Exposures on Microstructure and Impression Creep in 304HCu Grade Austenitic Stainless Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, Manmath Kumar; Karthikeyan, T.; Mythili, R.; Vijayanand, V. D.; Saroja, S.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the results of microstructural evolution and mechanical properties in 304H Cu grade austenite stainless (SS 304HCu) during long-term exposure at high temperatures. The predicted phase composition as a function of temperature obtained using JMatPro® software was confirmed in conjunction with the microstructural evolution characterized by scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Microstructures revealed primary Nb(C,N), M23C6 precipitates at γ-grain boundaries, fine secondary Nb(C,N) intragranular carbides, and a uniform precipitation of <40-nm-sized spherical Cu-rich phase after thermal aging for 10,000 hours at 903 K (630 °C). The impression creep rate at 300 MPa increased by a factor of 20 between 873 K and 923 K (600 °C and 650 °C). The creep rate at 903 K (630 °C) was found to moderately reduce with aging time, signifying the role of Cu-rich phase in improving the creep resistance. The deformation zones and the recrystallization behavior of the plastic zone in creep tested specimen was assessed using Electron backscatter diffraction technique.

  3. Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

    1994-01-01

    For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

  4. Preliminary Development of a Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Model for Alloy 617 with Special Reference to Long Term Creep Behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Sham, Sam; Walker, Kevin P.

    2008-01-01

    The expected service life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant is 60 years. Structural analyses of the Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) will require the development of unified viscoplastic constitutive models that address the material behavior of Alloy 617, a construction material of choice, over a wide range of strain rates. Many unified constitutive models employ a yield stress state variable which is used to account for cyclic hardening and softening of the material. For low stress values below the yield stress state variable these constitutive models predict that no inelastic deformation takes place which is contrary to experimental results. The ability to model creep deformation at low stresses for the IHX application is very important as the IHX operational stresses are restricted to very small values due to the low creep strengths at elevated temperatures and long design lifetime. This paper presents some preliminary work in modeling the unified viscoplastic constitutive behavior of Alloy 617 which accounts for the long term, low stress, creep behavior and the hysteretic behavior of the material at elevated temperatures. The preliminary model is presented in one-dimensional form for ease of understanding, but the intent of the present work is to produce a three-dimensional model suitable for inclusion in the user subroutines UMAT and USERPL of the ABAQUS and ANSYS nonlinear finite element codes. Further experiments and constitutive modeling efforts are planned to model the material behavior of Alloy 617 in more detail.

  5. Long-term performance of ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures: Modelling of creep and creep rupture

    SciTech Connect

    Curtin, W.A.; Fabeny, B.; Ibnabdeljalil, M.; Iyengar, N.; Reifsnider, K.L.

    1996-07-31

    The models developed, contain explicit dependences on constituent material properties and their changes with time, so that composite performance can be predicted. Three critical processes in ceramic composites at elevated temperatures have been modeled: (1) creep deformation of composite vs stress and time-dependent creep of fibers and matrix, and failure of these components; (2) creep deformation of ``interface`` around broken fibers; and (3) lifetime of the composite under conditions of fiber strength loss over time at temperature. In (1), general evolution formulas are derived for relaxation time of matrix stresses and steady-state creep rate of composite; the model is tested against recent data on Ti-MMCs. Calculations on a composite of Hi-Nicalon fibers in a melt-infiltrated SiC matrix are presented. In (2), numerical simulations of composite failure were made to map out time-to-failure vs applied load for several sets of material parameters. In (3), simple approximate relations are obtained between fiber life and composite life that should be useful for fiber developers and testers. Strength degradation data on Hi-Nicalon fibers is used to assess composite lifetime vs fiber lifetime for Hi-Nicalon fiber composites.

  6. Evaluation of hoop creep behaviors in long-term dry storage condition of pre-hydrided and high burn-up nuclear fuel cladding

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Sun-Ki; Bang, J.G.; Kim, D.H.; Yang, Y.S.

    2007-07-01

    Related to the degradation of the mechanical properties of Zr-based nuclear fuel cladding tubes under long term dry storage condition, the mechanical tests which can simulate the degradation of the mechanical properties properly are needed. Especially, the degradation of the mechanical properties by creep mechanism seems to be dominant under long term dry storage condition. Accordingly, in this paper, ring creep tests were performed in order to evaluate the creep behaviors of high burn-up fuel cladding under a hoop loading condition in a hot cell. The tests are performed with Zircaloy-4 fuel cladding whose burn-up is approximately {approx}60,000 MWd/tU in the temperature range from 350 deg. to 550 deg.. The tests are also performed with pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 and ZIRLO up to 1,000 ppm. First of all, the hoop loading grip for the ring creep test was designed in order that a constant curvature of the specimen was maintained during the creep deformation, and the graphite lubricant was used to minimize the friction between the outer surface of the die insert and the inner surface of the ring specimen. The specimen for the ring creep test was designed to limit the deformation within the gauge section and to maximize the uniformity of the strain distribution. It was confirmed that the mechanical properties under a hoop loading condition can be correctly evaluated by using this test technique. In this paper, secondary creep rate with increasing hydrogen content are drawn, and then kinetic data such as pre-exponential factor and activation energy for creep process are also drawn. In addition, creep life are predicted by obtaining LMP (Larson-Miller parameter) correlation in the function of hydrogen content and applied stress to yield stress ratio. (authors)

  7. Is Current Hydrogeologic Research Addressing Long-TermPredictions?

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2004-09-10

    Hydrogeology is a field closely related to the needs of society. Many problems of current national and local interest require predictions of hydrogeological system behavior, and, in a number of important cases, the period of prediction is tens to hundreds of thousands of years. It is argued that the demand for such long-term hydrogeological predictions casts a new light on the future needs of hydrogeological research. Key scientific issues are no longer concerned only with simple processes or narrowly focused modeling or testing methods, but also with assessment of prediction uncertainties and confidence, couplings among multiple physico-chemical processes occurring simultaneously at a site, and the interplay between site characterization and predictive modeling. These considerations also have significant implications for hydrogeological education. With this view, it is asserted that hydrogeological directions and education need to be reexamined and possibly refocused to address specific needs for long-term predictions.

  8. Long-term deflections of reinforced concrete elements: accuracy analysis of predictions by different methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gribniak, Viktor; Bacinskas, Darius; Kacianauskas, Rimantas; Kaklauskas, Gintaris; Torres, Lluis

    2013-08-01

    Long-term deflection response of reinforced concrete flexural members is influenced by the interaction of complex physical phenomena, such as concrete creep, shrinkage and cracking, which makes their prediction difficult. A number of approaches are proposed by design codes with different degrees of simplification and accuracy. This paper statistically investigates accuracy of long-term deflection predictions made by some of the most widely used design codes ( Eurocode 2, ACI 318, ACI 435, and the new Russian code SP 52-101) and a numerical technique proposed by the authors. The accuracy is analyzed using test data of 322 reinforced concrete members from 27 test programs reported in the literature. The predictions of each technique are discussed, and a comparative analysis is made showing the influence of different parameters, such as sustained loading duration, compressive strength of concrete, loading intensity and reinforcement ratio, on the prediction accuracy.

  9. Clinical scales in progressive MS: predicting long-term disability.

    PubMed

    Bosma, Libertje V A E; Kragt, Jolijn J; Knol, Dirk L; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

    2012-03-01

    To determine which short-term changes on clinical scales including the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg test (9HPT) and Guy's Neurological Disability Scale (GNDS) are most predictive of long-term outcome of disability as rated by the EDSS in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). From a longitudinal database, all progressive patients, both primary (PP) and secondary (SP), were selected on the basis of at least two complete examinations being available within a time interval of 1-2 years (short-term change). All patients who fulfilled the selection criteria were invited for a third visit after an interval of at least 3 years (long-term outcome). We used ordinal logistic regression to see which early changes were most predictive of the long-term EDSS. 181 patients fulfilled the selection criteria. Early change on EDSS and T25FW were the best predictors of long-term EDSS; both were significant predictors in a 'single predictor' model. Early EDSS change was a slightly stronger single predictor (R(2) 0.38, Wald χ(2) 42.65, p < 0.001) compared with early T25FW change (R(2) 0.27, Wald χ(2) 12.35, p < 0.001). Adding early T25FW change to early EDSS change in a 'combined predictor' model improved prediction (p = 0.036). Both early change on EDSS and T25FW predict long-term EDSS with comparable strength. Early change on T25FW adds significant independent information and improves the prediction model with early EDSS change only. Therefore we support the use of early T25FW examinations in future clinical trials in progressive MS.

  10. Effects of long-term thermal aging on the tensile and creep properties of commercially heat-treated alloy 718

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, M.K.

    1984-01-01

    Alloy 718 is a structure material widely used in elevated-temperature applications. In particular, it was extensively used in the design of the upper internal system and control rod drive line of the proposed Clinch River Breeder Reactor. Its popularity is due to several excellent behavioral features, including high creep and creep-rupture strength, good oxidation resistance, and exceptional high-cycle fatigue strength. However, alloy 718 is extremely complex, and its microstructure can be significantly modified by thermal treatment. The stability of the alloy in long-term elevated-temperature service is therefore a substantial concern in any such application. This report presents tensile and creep data obtained on three heats of alloy 718 after thermal aging for up to 27,000 h from 593 to 76{degree}C. Implications of these results in terms of long-term stability of the alloy are discussed. 5 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Predicting long-term outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI).

    PubMed

    Rassovsky, Yuri; Levi, Yifat; Agranov, Eugenia; Sela-Kaufman, Michal; Sverdlik, Anna; Vakil, Eli

    2015-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the most common cause of brain damage, resulting in long-term disability. The ever increasing life expectancies among TBI patients necessitate a critical examination of the factors that influence long-term outcome. Our objective was to evaluate the contribution of premorbid factors (which were identified in our previous work) and acute injury indices to long-term functioning following TBI. Eighty-nine participants with moderate-to-severe TBI were evaluated at an average of 14.2 years postinjury (range: 1-53 years) with neuropsychological battery, medical examination, clinical interviews, and questionnaires. TBI severity predicted cognitive, social, and daily functioning outcomes. After controlling for injury severity, preinjury intellectual functioning predicted cognitive status, as well as occupational, social, emotional, and daily functioning. Preinjury leisure activity also predicted cognitive, emotional, and daily functioning, whereas socioeconomic status failed to predict any of these variables. Findings offer further support for the cognitive reserve construct in explaining significant variance in TBI outcome, over and above the variance explained by injury severity.

  12. Thermoregulatory model for prediction of long-term cold exposure.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Tikuisis, Peter; Gonzalez, Richard; Giesbrecht, Gordon

    2005-05-01

    A multi-segmental mathematical model has been developed for predicting shivering and thermoregulatory responses during long-term cold exposure. The present model incorporates new knowledge on shivering thermogenesis, including the control and maximal limits of its intensity, inhibition due to a low core temperature, and prediction of endurance time. The model also takes into account individual characteristics of age, height, weight, % body fat, and maximum aerobic capacity. The model was validated against three different cold conditions i.e. water immersion up to 38 h and air exposure. The predictions were found to be in good agreement with the observations.

  13. Creep Behavior of Glass/Ceramic Sealant and its Effect on Long-term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Koeppel, Brian J.; Stephens, Elizabeth V.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2009-10-14

    The creep behavior of glass or glass-ceramic sealant materials used in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) becomes relevant under SOFC operating temperatures. In this paper, the creep of glass-ceramic sealants was experimentally examined, and a standard linear solid model was applied to capture the creep behavior of glass ceramic sealant materials developed for planar SOFCs at high temperatures. The parameters of this model were determined based on the creep test results. Furthermore, the creep model was incorporated into finite-element software programs SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for multi-physics simulation of SOFCs. The effect of creep of glass ceramic sealant materials on the long-term performance of SOFC stacks was investigated by studying the stability of the flow channels and the stress redistribution in the glass seal and on the various interfaces of the glass seal with other layers. Finite element analyses were performed to quantify the stresses in various parts. The stresses in glass seals were released because of creep behavior during operations.

  14. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    PubMed

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Long-term weather predictability: Ural case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of the state-of-the-art long-term meteorological forecast (at the seasonal level) is still low. Here it is presented approach (RAMES method) realizing different forecasting methodology. It provides prediction horizon of up to 19-22 years under equal probabilities of determination of parameters in every analyzed period [1]. Basic statements of the method are the following. 1. Long-term forecast on the basis of numerical modeling of the global meteorological process is principally impossible. Extension of long-term prediction horizon could be obtained only by the revealing and using a periodicity of meteorological situations at one point of observation. 2. Conventional calendar is unsuitable for generalization of meteorological data and revealing of cyclicity of meteorological processes. RAMES method uses natural time intervals: one day, synodic month and one year. It was developed a set of special calendars using these natural periods and the Metonic cycle. 3. Long-term time series of meteorological data is not a uniform universal set, it is a sequence of 28 universal sets appropriately superseding each other in time. The specifics of the method are: 1. Usage of the original research toolkit consisting of - a set of calendars based on the Metonic cycle; - a set of charts (coordinate systems) for the construction of sequence diagrams (of daily variability of a meteorological parameter during the analyzed year; of daily variability of a meteorological parameter using long-term dynamical time series of periods-analogues; of monthly and yearly variability of accumulated value of meteorological parameter). 2. Identification and usage of new virtual meteorological objects having several degrees of generalization appropriately located in the used coordinate systems. 3. All calculations are integrated into the single technological scheme providing comparison and mutual verification of calculation results. During the prolonged testing in the Ural region, it was

  16. Long-Term Creep of a Thin-Walled Inconel 718 Stirling Power-Convertor Heater Head Assessed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, Randy R.

    2002-01-01

    The Department of Energy and NASA have identified Stirling power convertors as candidate power supply systems for long-duration, deep-space science missions. A key element for qualifying the flight hardware is a long-term durability assessment for critical hot section components of the power convertor. One such critical component is the power convertor heater head. The heater head is a high-temperature pressure vessel that transfers heat to the working gas medium of the convertor, which is typically helium. An efficient heater head design is the result of balancing the divergent requirements of thin walls for increased heat transfer versus thick walls to lower the wall stresses and thus improve creep resistance and durability. In the current design, the heater head is fabricated from the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV). Although IN 718 is a mature alloy system (patented in 1962), there is little long-term (>50,000-hr) creep data available for thin-specimen geometries. Since thin-section properties tend to be inferior to thicker samples, it is necessary to generate creep data using specimens with the same geometry as the actual flight hardware. Therefore, one facet of the overall durability assessment program involves generating relatively short-term creep data using thin specimens at the design temperature of 649 C (1200 F).

  17. Prediction of long-term aging of cellular plastics

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Y.; Kokko, E.

    1995-09-01

    Chlorofluorocarbon(CFC)-based cellular plastics are facing the challenge of environmental protection. The cellular plastic industry has been looking for new blowing agents as alternatives for CFCs since the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987. The prediction of long-term thermal performance of newly developed cellular plastics thus becomes apparent. In this paper, the model ACP aging of cellular plastic is introduced. This model was originally developed for evaluating the thermal performance of carbon dioxide, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-22, n-Pentane, neo-Pentane and cyclo-Pentane. In comparison with short-term measurements, the ACP program now is able to predict the aging performance of cellular plastics is to combine the short-term measurements and model simulation. 21 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  18. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia

    PubMed Central

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D.; Black, Jessica M.; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H.; Reiss, Allan L.; Gabrieli, John D. E.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures. PMID:21173250

  19. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D; Black, Jessica M; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H; Reiss, Allan L; Gabrieli, John D E

    2011-01-04

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures.

  20. The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2013-01-01

    Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

  1. Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKinley, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

  2. Long-term treatment with tetrahydrobiopterin in phenylketonuria: treatment strategies and prediction of long-term responders.

    PubMed

    Hennermann, Julia B; Roloff, Sylvia; Gebauer, Christine; Vetter, Barbara; von Arnim-Baas, Annabel; Mönch, Eberhard

    2012-11-01

    Tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) responsive phenylketonuria has been described more than 10 years ago. However, criteria for the identification of long-term BH4 responsive patients are not yet established. 116 patients with phenylketonuria, aged 4-18 years, were screened for potential long-term BH4 responsiveness by at least two of the following criteria: positive neonatal BH4 loading test, putative BH4 responsive genotype, and/or milder phenotype. Patients had to be on permanent dietary treatment. 23 patients fulfilled these criteria and were tested for long-term BH4 responsiveness: 18/23 were long-term BH4 responsive, 5/23 were not. On long-term BH4 treatment over a period of 48 ± 27 months in a dose of 14.9 ± 3.3mg/kg/day phenylalanine tolerance was increased from 452 ± 201 mg/day to 1593 ± 647 mg/day, corresponding to a mean increase of 1141 ± 528 mg/day. Dietary phenylalanine intake was increased stepwise according to a clear defined protocol. In 8/18 patients, diet was completely liberalized; 10/18 patients still received phenylalanine-free amino acid formula with 0.63 ± 0.23 g/kg/day. The most predictive value for long-term BH4 responsiveness was the combination of pretreatment phenylalanine of < 1200 μmol/L, pretreatment phenylalanine/tyrosine ratio of <15, phenylalanine/tyrosine ratio of <15 on treatment, phenylalanine tolerance of >20mg/kg/day at age 3 years, positive neonatal BH4 loading, and at least one putative BH4 responsive mutation (p = 0.00024). Our data show that long-term BH4 responsiveness may be predicted already during neonatal period by determining maximum pretreatment phenylalanine and phenylalanine/tyrosine concentrations, neonatal BH4 loading and PAH genotype. A clear defined protocol is necessary to install long-term BH4 treatment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-term predictions of minewater geothermal systems heat resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harcout-Menou, Virginie; de ridder, fjo; laenen, ben; ferket, helga

    2014-05-01

    Abandoned underground mines usually flood due to the natural rise of the water table. In most cases the process is relatively slow giving the mine water time to equilibrate thermally with the the surrounding rock massif. Typical mine water temperature is too low to be used for direct heating, but is well suited to be combined with heat pumps. For example, heat extracted from the mine can be used during winter for space heating, while the process could be reversed during summer to provide space cooling. Altough not yet widely spread, the use of low temperature geothermal energy from abandoned mines has already been implemented in the Netherlands, Spain, USA, Germany and the UK. Reliable reservoir modelling is crucial to predict how geothermal minewater systems will react to predefined exploitation schemes and to define the energy potential and development strategy of a large-scale geothermal - cold/heat storage mine water systems. However, most numerical reservoir modelling software are developed for typical environments, such as porous media (a.o. many codes developed for petroleum reservoirs or groundwater formations) and cannot be applied to mine systems. Indeed, mines are atypical environments that encompass different types of flow, namely porous media flow, fracture flow and open pipe flow usually described with different modelling codes. Ideally, 3D models accounting for the subsurface geometry, geology, hydrogeology, thermal aspects and flooding history of the mine as well as long-term effects of heat extraction should be used. A new modelling approach is proposed here to predict the long-term behaviour of Minewater geothermal systems in a reactive and reliable manner. The simulation method integrates concepts for heat and mass transport through various media (e.g., back-filled areas, fractured rock, fault zones). As a base, the standard software EPANET2 (Rossman 1999; 2000) was used. Additional equations for describing heat flow through the mine (both

  4. Long-term Observation of Soil Creep Activity around a Landslide Scar

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rate of sediment infilling into landslide scars by soil creep is needed to estimate the timing of subsequent landslide activity at a particular site. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of its activity around the landslide scar is scarce. Additionally, there are few...

  5. Long-term Observation of Soil Creep Activity around a Landslide Scar

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rate of sediment infilling into landslide scars by soil creep is needed to estimate the timing of subsequent landslide activity at a particular site. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of its activity around the landslide scar is scarce. Additionally, there are few...

  6. Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

    PubMed

    Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

    2017-01-24

    To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

  7. Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery.

    PubMed

    Skeffington, Richard A; Cosby, B Jack; Whitehead, Paul G

    2016-10-15

    This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  9. Predicting long-term sickness absence from sleep and fatigue.

    PubMed

    Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Kecklund, Goran; Alfredsson, Lars; Selen, Jan

    2007-12-01

    Disturbed or shortened sleep is prospectively related to disease. One might also expect that sickness absence would be another consequence but very little data seem to exist. The present study used 8300 individuals in a national sample to obtain information on reports of disturbed sleep and fatigue one [corrected] year and merged this with data on long-term sickness absence two [corrected] years later. A logistic regression analysis was applied to the data with adjustments for demographic and work environment variables. The results showed that individuals without registered sickness absence at the start had a higher probability of entering a period of long-term (>/=90 days, odds ratio [OR] = 1.24 with 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.09[corrected]-2.18[corrected]) sickness absence two [corrected] years later if they reported disturbed sleep at the start. The value [corrected] for fatigue was OR = 1.69[corrected] (CI = 1.23[corrected]-2.33[corrected]). When fatigue or disturbed sleep was separately excluded the OR increased to OR = 1.90[corrected] and OR = 1.86[corrected], respectively. Intermediate sickness absence (14-89 days) showed similar but slightly weaker results. The results indicate that disturbed sleep and fatigue are predictors of long-term absence and it is suggested that impaired sleep may be part of a chain of causation, considering its effects on fatigue.

  10. Long term prediction and the SSC (Superconducting Super Collider)

    SciTech Connect

    Talman, R.

    1990-09-01

    Successful operation of the Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) will depend on the stable circulation of particles for tens of millions of turns around the rings, in the presence of small nonlinear deflecting fields. One design challenge is to set specifications for the maximum allowable field imperfections of this sort, consistent with the required. stability. Another challenge is to plan for the inclusion of field compensating elements that will ameliorate the effects of errors. The tools'' available for projecting the long term stability are theoretical, both analytic and numerical, and experimental. These aspects are reviewed. 19 refs.

  11. The long term characteristics of greenschist

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Bo-An

    2016-04-01

    The greenschist in the Jinping II Hydropower Station in southwest China exhibits continuous creep behaviour because of the geological conditions in the region. This phenomenon illustrates the time-dependent deformation and progressive damage that occurs after excavation. In this study, the responses of greenschist to stress over time were determined in a series of laboratory tests on samples collected from the access tunnel walls at the construction site. The results showed that the greenschist presented time-dependent behaviour under long-term loading. The samples generally experienced two stages: transient creep and steady creep, but no accelerating creep. The periods of transient creep and steady creep increased with increasing stress levels. The long-term strength of the greenschist was identified based on the variation of creep strain and creep rate. The ratio of long-term strength to conventional strength was around 80% and did not vary much with confining pressures. A quantitative method for predicting the failure period of greenschist, based on analysis of the stress-strain curve, is presented and implemented. At a confining pressure of 40 MPa, greenschist was predicted to fail in 5000 days under a stress of 290 MPa and to fail in 85 days under the stress of 320 MPa, indicating that the long-term strength identified by the creep rate and creep strain is a reliable estimate.

  12. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  13. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  14. Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

    PubMed Central

    van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

  15. Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course.

    PubMed

    van Loo, Hanna M; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A; Schoevers, Robert A; Wardenaar, Klaas J; Wilcox, Marsha A; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C

    2014-09-01

    Variation in the course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs), followed by k-means cluster analysis are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode, number of years with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD, disability due to MDD). Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity, and it was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Predicting long-term forest development following hemlock mortality

    Treesearch

    Jennifer C. Jenkins; Charles D. Canham; Paul K. Barten

    2000-01-01

    The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand.), an introduced pest specializing on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), threatens to cause widespread hemlock mortality in New England forests. In this study, we used a stem-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE) to predict forest development in a northeastern forest...

  17. Long-term settlement prediction at open dumping area using Hossein and Gabr method for new development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Shariffuddin, Ahmad Sulaimi; Omar, Husaini; Misran, Halina

    2017-07-01

    In Malaysia, the most common method of disposal is landfill/open dumping. The soil at the dumping area are mixed with waste and soil. Thus, it was called as waste soil. Due to its heterogeneity properties, waste soil has a different settlement rate because different types of waste tends to settle differently. The Hussein and Gabr model which used empirical model was proposed to compute the long-term settlement. This Hussein and Gabr model is one of the soil settlement model that can be used to predict the long-term settlement at the dumping area. The model relates between the compression index and the time factor. The time factor are t1, t2, t3 and t4. The compression index is Cα1=compression index and Cβ is biodegradation index. The duration for initial compression, the compression, the biological compression and time creep are included in the model. The sample of waste soil is taken from closed dumping area in Lukut, Negeri Sembilan with the height of waste approximately 1 to 3 meters. The sample is tested using consolidation test for determining the geotechnical parameters and compressibility index. Based on the Hossein and Gabr model, the predicted long-term settlement for 20 years (ΔH) for the waste height of 1 to 3 meters are 0.21m, 0.42m and 0.63m respectively and are below the percentages of proposed maximum settlement for waste soil which is acceptable for new development to takes place.. The types of deep or shallow foundation are proposed based on the predicted settlement. The abandoned open dumping area can now be reused for the new development after the long-term settlement are predicted and some of the precaution measures has been taken as a safety measures.

  18. Long-term Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Based on ARMA Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, C.; Cai, C. L.; Li, S. M.; Li, X. H.; Li, Z. B.; Deng, K. Q.

    2014-01-01

    The long-term and reliable prediction of satellite clock bias (SCB) is a key to implement the satellite autonomous navigation and orbit determination. Considering the shortcomings of the quadratic polynomial model (PM) and graysystem model (GM) in predicting the long-term SCB, a new prediction method of SCB that based on the ARMA (Auto-Regressive Moving Average) model is proposed to predict SCB, and show its property clearer. In this paper, a careful precision analysis of the 90-day SCB prediction is made to verify the feasibility and validity of this proposed method by using the IGS (International GNSS Service) clock data. According to the various changes of each satellite clock, the pattern recognition, modeling, and predicting are conducted, and the detailed comparison is made with the other three models at the same time. The results show that the ARMA model is reliable and valid to predict the long-term SCB.

  19. Long-term Clock Bias Prediction Based on An ARMA Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, Chao; Cai, Cheng-Lin; Li, Si-Min; Li, Xiao-Hui; Li, Zhi-Bin; Deng, Ke-Qun

    2014-07-01

    The long-term and reliable prediction of satellite clock bias (SCB) is an important prerequisite for realizing the satellite autonomous navigation and orbit determination. Considering the shortcomings of the quadratic polynomial model (PM) and gray system model (GM) in the long-term prediction of SCB, a new prediction method of SCB based on an ARMA (Auto-Regressive Moving Average) model is proposed to represent the variation characteristics of SCB more accurately. In this paper, a careful precision analysis of the 90-day SCB prediction is made to verify the feasibility and validity of this proposed method by using the IGS (International GNSS Service) clock data. According to the variation characteristics of each satellite clock, the pattern recognition, modeling and prediction of SCB are conducted, and the detailed comparison is made with the other three models at the same time. The results show that adopting the ARMA model can effectively improve the accuracy of long-term SCB prediction.

  20. Prediction of creep of polymer concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Khristova, Yu.; Aniskevich, K.

    1995-11-01

    We studied the applicability of the phenomenological approach to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete consisting of polyester binder with diabase filler and diabase aggregate. We discovered that the principles of temperature-time analogy, of moisture-time analogy, and of temperature-moisture-time analogy are applicable to the description of the diagrams of short-time creep and to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete at different temperatures and constant moisture content of the material.

  1. Predicting long-term absenteeism from work in construction industry: a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Hoonakker, Peter; van Duivenbooden, Cor

    2012-01-01

    In this study we examine whether the Work Ability Index (WAI) has additional value in predicting long-term absenteeism in construction industry. Results of the study show that the WAI has additional value in predicting absenteeism, but that the amount of explained variance is low. This is partly due to the definition of absenteeism in The Netherlands, where this study took place.

  2. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  3. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  4. The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

  5. Long-Term Amorphous Drug Stability Predictions Using Easily Calculated, Predicted, and Measured Parameters.

    PubMed

    Nurzyńska, Katarzyna; Booth, Jonathan; Roberts, Clive J; McCabe, James; Dryden, Ian; Fischer, Peter M

    2015-09-08

    The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of the amorphous stability of drugs with particular relevance for poorly water-soluble compounds. Twenty-five representative neutral poorly soluble compounds with a diverse range of physicochemical properties and chemical structures were systematically selected from an extensive library of marketed drug products. The physical stability of the amorphous form, measured over a 6 month period by the onset of crystallization of amorphous films prepared by melting and quench-cooling, was assessed using polarized light microscopy. The data were used as a response variable in a statistical model with calculated/predicted or measured molecular, thermodynamic, and kinetic parameters as explanatory variables. Several multiple linear regression models were derived, with varying balance between calculated/predicted and measured parameters. It was shown that inclusion of measured parameters significantly improves the predictive ability of the model. The best model demonstrated a prediction accuracy of 82% and included the following as parameters: melting and glass transition temperatures, enthalpy of fusion, configurational free energy, relaxation time, number of hydrogen bond donors, lipophilicity, and the ratio of carbon to heteroatoms. Good predictions were also obtained with a simpler model, which was comprised of easily acquired quantities: molecular weight and enthalpy of fusion. Statistical models are proposed to predict long-term amorphous drug stability. The models include readily accessible parameters, which are potentially the key factors influencing amorphous stability. The derived models can support faster decision making in drug formulation development.

  6. Predicting the long-term outcome after idiopathic facial nerve paralysis.

    PubMed

    Mantsopoulos, Konstantinos; Psillas, Georgios; Psychogios, Georgios; Brase, Cristoph; Iro, Heinrich; Constantinidis, Jannis

    2011-07-01

    To investigate long-term recovery after Bell's palsy and evaluate specific parameters for predicting the long-term outcome of facial weakness. Retrospective clinical study combined with long-term follow-up. Tertiary care university hospital (Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, University of Thessaloniki, Greece). Forty-four patients who were followed up 2 to 6 years (mean, 4.01 yr) after the onset of facial weakness. The failure rate of complete recovery was studied for age, initial nerve excitability test, electroneurography, initial severity of paralysis, and number of days from onset of facial weakness to the start of medical treatment. Thirty-two (73%) of 44 patients had a satisfactory outcome, and 12 (27%) had a nonsatisfactory recovery. Initial House-Brackmann grades V/VI and electroneurographically detected degeneration of 90% or more were shown to affect the long-term outcome of facial weakness significantly (p = 0.024 and p = 0.000, respectively). The initial severity of facial weakness and the electroneurographically detected facial nerve degeneration were found to be important factors in predicting the long-term prognosis of Bell's palsy.

  7. On the accuracy of creep-damage predictions in thinwalled structures using the finite element method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altenbach, H.; Kolarow, G.; Morachkovsky, O. K.; Naumenko, K.

    The constitutive model with a single damage parameter describing creep-damage behaviour of metals with respect to the different sensitivity of the damage process due to tension and compression is incorporated into the ANSYS finite element code by modifying the user defined creep material subroutine. The procedure is verified by comparison with solutions for beams and rectangular plates in bending based on the Ritz method. Various numerical tests show the sensitivity of long-term predictions to the mesh sizes and element types available for the creep analysis of thinwalled structures.

  8. Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

  9. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on nonmetallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Changes in functional properties of a broad spectrum of nonmetallic materials as a function of environment and exposure time were evaluated. Models for predicting long-term material performance are discussed. A literature search on specific materials in the space and simulated space environment was carried out and evaluated.

  10. Predicting agricultural management influence on long-term soil organic carbon dynamics: implications for biofuel production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations,...

  11. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically-amended soils using the CQESTR model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A process-based soil C model “CQESTR” was developed to simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. The model has been validated successfully for North America, but needs to be tested in other geographic areas. We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR in a long-term (34-yr) SOC-depleted Eur...

  12. Temperamental factors predict long-term modifications of eating disorders after treatment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Eating Disorders (EDs) are complex psychiatric pathologies characterized by moderate to poor response to treatment. Criteria of remission and recovery are not yet well defined. Simultaneously, personality plays a key role among the factors that determine treatment outcome. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the possibility of temperamental and character traits to predict the long-term outcome of ED. Method A sample of 25 AN and 28 BN female patients were re-assessed face-to-face after a minimum 5-years-follow-up through SCID-I, EDI-2 and TCI-R. Regression Analyses were performed to ascertain the possibility of TCI-R dimensions at the first visit to predict the long-term outcome. Results Clinical and psychopathological symptoms significantly decreased over the time and 23% of participants no longer received a categorical ED diagnosis after at least 5 years of follow-up. TCI-R dimensions failed to predict the absence of a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis in the long term, but Novelty Seeking, Harm Avoidance and Reward Dependence demonstrated to predict the clinical improvement of several EDI-2 scales. Conclusions Our results support the idea that temperamental dimensions are relevant to the long-term improvement of clinical variables of ED. Low Novelty Seeking is the strongest predictor of poor outcome. PMID:24200241

  13. Lymphocyte markers and prediction of long-term renal allograft acceptance.

    PubMed

    Babel, Nina; Reinke, Petra; Volk, Hans-Dieter

    2009-11-01

    Long-term allograft acceptance is the main goal of posttransplant care. Modern immunosuppression has reduced the incidence of acute rejection, the major risk factor for long-term allograft survival, and improved the 1-year results, despite increasing use of marginal donor organs. However, the long-term results are still unsatisfactory. Chronic allograft injury and side effects of chronic immunosuppression are the main causes. Therefore, preemptive reduced long-term immunosuppression is required. Present 'trial-and-error' strategies appear to be remarkably harmful for patients not suitable for partial drug weaning. In addition, preemptive interventions have been shown to be the only successful strategy for improving the long-term transplant outcome in animal models. These findings underline the importance of early identification of biomarkers in detecting the individual's risk. Recent technological advances have provided evidence of successful approaches to this goal. A set of parameters/tests are showing promise for guiding personalized immunosuppression, including different technology platforms such as antidonor responsiveness/nonresponsiveness, cellular parameters predicting risk of virus-associated complications, gene expression analysis etc. Although the data are very promising, multicentric, prospective, randomized clinical trials are crucial prerequisites for introducing immune monitoring into routine clinical use. International networks, such as RISET and ITN, can help to facilitate this process.

  14. Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

  15. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Pinsky, Brett W; Lentine, Krista L; Ercole, Patrick R; Salvalaggio, Paolo R; Burroughs, Thomas E; Schnitzler, Mark A

    2012-07-01

    The ability to accurately predict a population's long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population's long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS) projections were calculated and compared with the population's actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1) fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A) and (2) uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B). Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted survival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%). Excellent predictability (41.3%) can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population's long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  16. A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2016-12-01

    A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.

  17. Important meteorological variables for statistical long-term air quality prediction in eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Libo; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Fengjun

    2017-09-01

    Weather is an important factor for air quality. While there have been increasing attentions to long-term (monthly and seasonal) air pollution such as regional hazes from land-clearing fires during El Niño, the weather-air quality relationships are much less understood at long-term than short-term (daily and weekly) scales. This study is aimed to fill this gap through analyzing correlations between meteorological variables and air quality at various timescales. A regional correlation scale was defined to measure the longest time with significant correlations at a substantial large number of sites. The air quality index (API) and five meteorological variables during 2001-2012 at 40 eastern China sites were used. The results indicate that the API is correlated to precipitation negatively and air temperature positively across eastern China, and to wind, relative humidity and air pressure with spatially varied signs. The major areas with significant correlations vary with meteorological variables. The correlations are significant not only at short-term but also at long-term scales, and the important variables are different between the two types of scales. The concurrent regional correlation scales reach seasonal at p < 0.05 and monthly at p < 0.001 for wind speed and monthly at p < 0.01 for air temperature and relative humidity. Precipitation, which was found to be the most important variable for short-term air quality conditions, and air pressure are not important for long-term air quality. The lagged correlations are much smaller in magnitude than the concurrent correlations and their regional correction scales are at long term only for wind speed and relative humidity. It is concluded that wind speed should be considered as a primary predictor for statistical prediction of long-term air quality in a large region over eastern China. Relative humidity and temperature are also useful predictors but at less significant levels.

  18. Ethical aspects of a predictive test for Huntington's Disease: A long term perspective.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Petra Lilja; Petersén, Åsa; Graff, Caroline; Edberg, Anna-Karin

    2016-08-01

    A predictive genetic test for Huntington's disease can be used before any symptoms are apparent, but there is only sparse knowledge about the long-term consequences of a positive test result. Such knowledge is important in order to gain a deeper understanding of families' experiences. The aim of the study was to describe a young couple's long-term experiences and the consequences of a predictive test for Huntington's disease. A descriptive case study design was used with a longitudinal narrative life history approach. The study was based on 18 interviews with a young couple, covering a period of 2.5 years; starting 6 months after the disclosure of the test results showing the woman to be a carrier of the gene causing Huntington's disease. Even though the study was extremely sensitive, where potential harm constantly had to be balanced against the benefits, the couple had a strong wish to contribute to increased knowledge about people in their situation. The study was approved by the ethics committee. The results show that the long-term consequences were devastating for the family. This 3-year period was characterized by anxiety, repeated suicide attempts, financial difficulties and eventually divorce. By offering a predictive test, the healthcare system has an ethical and moral responsibility. Once the test result is disclosed, the individual and the family cannot live without the knowledge it brings. Support is needed in a long-term perspective and should involve counselling concerning the families' everyday life involving important decision-making, reorientation towards a new outlook of the future and the meaning of life. As health professionals, our ethical and moral responsibility thus embraces not only the phase in direct connection to the actual genetic test but also a commitment to provide support to help the family deal with the long-term consequences of the test. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    PubMed

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-10-02

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  20. Wear, creep, and frictional heating of femoral implant articulating surfaces and the effect on long-term performance--Part II, Friction, heating, and torque.

    PubMed

    Davidson, J A; Schwartz, G; Lynch, G; Gir, S

    1988-04-01

    In Part I, (J.A. Davidson and G. Schwartz, "Wear, creep, and frictional heating of femoral implant articulating surfaces and the effect on long-term performance--Part I, A review," J. Biomed. Mater. Res., 21, 000-000 (1987) it was shown that lubrication of the artificial hip joint was complex and that long-term performance is governed by the combined wear, creep, and to a lesser extent, oxidation degradation of the articulating materials. Importantly, it was shown that a tendency for heating exists during articulation in the hip joint and that elevated temperatures can increase the wear, creep, and oxidation degradation rate of UHMWPE. The present study was performed to examine closely the propensity to generate heat during articulation in a hip joint simulator. The systems investigated were polished Co-Cr-Mo alloy articulating against UHMWPE, polished alumina ceramic against UHMWPE, and polished alumina against itself. Frictional torque was also evaluated for each system at various levels of applied loads. A walking load history was used in both the frictional heating and torque tests. The majority of tests were performed with 5 mL of water lubricant. However, the effect of various concentrations of hyaluronic acid was also evaluated. Results showed frictional heating to occur in all three systems, reaching an equilibrium after roughly 30 min articulation time. Ceramic systems showed reduced levels of heating compared to the cobalt alloy-UHMWPE system. The level of frictional torque for each system ranked similar to their respective tendencies to generate heat. Hyaluronic acid had little effect, while dry conditions and the presence of small quantities of bone cement powder in water lubricant significantly increased frictional torque.

  1. Effect of Tungsten on Long-Term Microstructural Evolution and Impression Creep Behavior of 9Cr Reduced Activation Ferritic/Martensitic Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas Paul, V.; Vijayanand, V. D.; Sudha, C.; Saroja, S.

    2017-01-01

    The present study describes the changes in the creep properties associated with microstructural evolution during thermal exposures to near service temperatures in indigenously developed reduced activation ferritic-martensitic steels with varying tungsten (1 and 1.4 wt pct W) contents. The creep behavior has been studied employing impression creep (IC) test, and the changes in impression creep behavior with tungsten content have been correlated with the observed microstructures. The results of IC test showed that an increase in 0.4 pct W decreases the creep rate to nearly half the value. Creep strength of 1.4 pct W steel showed an increase in steels aged for short durations which decreased as aging time increased. The microstructural changes include coarsening of precipitates, reduction in dislocation density, changes in microchemistry, and formation of new phases. The formation of various phases and their volume fractions have been predicted using the JMatPro software for the two steels and validated by experimental methods. Detailed transmission electron microscopy analysis shows coarsening of precipitates and formation of a discontinuous network of Laves phase in 1.4 W steel aged for 10,000 hours at 823 K (550 °C) which is in agreement with the JMatPro simulation results.

  2. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  3. Prediction of the Long-term Efficacy of STA-MCA Bypass by DSC-PI.

    PubMed

    Hui, Li; Hui, Liu; Tong, Han

    2016-01-01

    Superficial temporal artery-middle cerebral artery (STA-MCA) bypass [1,2] is an important and effective type of surgical revascularization that is widely used in the treatment of ischemic cerebral artery disease. However, a means of predicting its postoperative efficacy has not been established [3,4]. The present study analyzes the correlation between preoperative perfusion parameters (obtained using dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced perfusion imaging, DSC-PI) and postoperative long-term prognosis (using modified Rankin Scale, mRS scores). The preoperative perfusion parameters were defined by a combination of perfusion-weighted imaging and the Alberta Stroke Program Early Computerized Tomography Score (PWI-ASPECTS) and included cerebral blood flow (CBF)-ASPECTS, cerebral blood volume (CBV)-ASPECTS, mean transit time (MTT)-ASPECTS, and time to peak (TTP)-ASPECTS. Preoperative and postoperative scores were determined for 33 patients that received a unilateral STA-MCA bypass in order to discover the most reliable imaging predictive index as well as to define the threshold value for a favorable clinical outcome. The results showed that all of the PWI-ASPECTS scores were significantly negatively correlated with clinical prognosis. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis of the preoperative parameters in relation to long term prognosis showed the area under curve (AUC) was maximal for the CBF-ASPECTS score (P = 0.002). A preoperative score of less than six indicated a poor postoperative prognosis (sensitivity = 74.1%, specificity = 100%, AUC = 0.843). In conclusion, preoperative PWI-ASPECTS scores have been found useful as predictive indexes for the long-term prognosis of STA-MCA bypass patients, with higher scores indicating better postoperative long-term outcomes. As the most valuable prognostic indicator, the preoperative CBF-ASPECTS score has potential for use as a major index in screening and outcome prediction of patients under consideration for STA

  4. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  5. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Goldsmith, Yulia; Chan, Jacqueline; Iskandir, Marina; Gulkarov, Iosif; Tortolani, Anthony; Brener, Sorin J.; Sacchi, Terrence J.; Heitner, John F.

    2015-01-01

    Background The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF), independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery. Methods From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female) were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered <35% and <45%, respectively. Elective primary procedures include CABG (56%) and valve (44%). Thirty-day outcomes were perioperative complications, length of stay, cardiac re-hospitalizations and early mortaility; long-term (> 30 days) outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months. Findings Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25%) and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50%) (p<0.001). Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30%) and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59%) (p<0.001). Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05). Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03). Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization. Conclusion Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures. PMID:26197273

  6. Role of subdural electrocorticography in prediction of long-term seizure outcome in epilepsy surgery

    PubMed Central

    Juhász, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age 0.4–23.0 years), who underwent extraoperative ECoG recording prior to cortical resection for alleviation of uncontrolled focal seizures. Patient age, frequency of preoperative seizures, neuroimaging findings, ictal and interictal ECoG measures were preoperatively obtained. The seizure outcome was prospectively measured [follow-up period: 2.5–6.4 years (mean 4.6 years)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined how well preoperative demographic and diagnostic measures predicted long-term seizure outcome. Following the initial cortical resection, Engel Class I, II, III and IV outcomes were noted in 35, 6, 12 and 7 patients, respectively. One child died due to disseminated intravascular coagulation associated with pseudomonas sepsis 2 days after surgery. Univariate regression analyses revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone, higher interictal spike-frequency in the preserved cortex and incomplete removal of cortical abnormalities on neuroimaging were associated with a greater risk of failing to obtain Class I outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone was the only independent predictor of failure to obtain Class I outcome. The goodness of regression model fit and the predictive ability of regression model were greatest in the full regression model incorporating both ictal and interictal measures [R2 0.44; Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: 0.81], slightly smaller in the reduced model incorporating ictal but not interictal measures (R2 0.40; Area under the ROC curve: 0.79) and slightly smaller

  7. Predictive Factors Affecting Long-Term Outcome of Unilateral Lateral Rectus Recession

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Hee Kyung; Kim, Mi-Jin; Hwang, Jeong-Min

    2015-01-01

    Background There are few long-term outcome reports of unilateral lateral rectus (LR) recession for exotropia including a large number of subjects. Previous reports on unilateral LR recession commonly show extremely low rates of initial overcorrection and large exodrifts after surgery suggesting that the surgical dose may be increased. However, little is known of the long-term outcome of a large unilateral LR recession for exotropia. Objectives To determine long-term outcomes and predictive factors of recurrence after a large unilateral LR recession in patients with exotropia. Data Extraction Retrospective analysis was performed on 92 patients aged 3 to 17 years who underwent 10 mm unilateral LR recession for exotropia of ≤ 25 prism diopters (Δ) with prism and alternate cover testing and were followed up for more than 2 years after surgery. Final success rates within 10Δ of exophoria/tropia and 5Δ of esophoria/tropia at distance in the primary position, improvement in stereopsis and the predictive factors for recurrence were evaluated. Results At 24 months after surgery, 54% of patients had ocular alignment meeting the defined criteria of success, 45% had recurrence and 1% had overcorrection. After a mean follow-up of 39 months, 36% showed success, 63% showed recurrence and 1% resulted in overcorrection. The average time of recurrence was 23.4±14.7 months (range, 1–60 months) and the rate of recurrence per person-year was 23% after unilateral LR recession. Predictive factors of recurrence were a larger preoperative near angle of deviation (>16Δ) and larger initial postoperative exodeviation (>5Δ) at distance. Conclusions Long-term outcome of unilateral LR recession for exotropia showed low success rates with high recurrence, thus should be reserved for patients with a small preoperative near angle of exodeviation. PMID:26418819

  8. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-10

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  9. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, Damien A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Alroy, John; Saltré, Frédérik; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Brook, Barry W.

    2016-10-01

    Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecological outcomes in the face of global change. Opportunities include using fossils, genes and computational models to identify ecological traits that caused species to be differentially prone to regional and range-wide extinction, test if threatened-species assessment approaches work and locate habitats that support stable ecosystems in the face of shifting climates. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively.

  10. Review of uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions of space debris evolutionary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolado-Perez, J. C.; Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

    2015-08-01

    Since the launch of Sputnik-I in 1957, the amount of space debris in Earth's orbit has increased continuously. Historically, besides abandoned intact objects (spacecraft and orbital stages), the primary sources of space debris in Earth's orbit were (i) accidental and intentional break-ups which produced long-lasting debris and (ii) debris released intentionally during the operation of launch vehicle orbital stages and spacecraft. In the future, fragments generated by collisions are expected to become a significant source as well. In this context, and from a purely mathematical point of view, the orbital debris population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should be intrinsically unstable, due to the physics of mutual collisions and the relative ineffectiveness of natural sink mechanisms above~700 km. Therefore, the real question should not be "if", but "when" the exponential growth of the space debris population is supposed to start. From a practical point of view, and in order to answer the previous question, since the end of the 1980's several sophisticated long-term debris evolutionary models have been developed. Unfortunately, the predictions performed with such models, in particular beyond a few decades, are affected by considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainty comes from a relative important number of variables that being either under the partial control or completely out of the control of modellers, introduce a variability on the long-term simulation of the space debris population which cannot be captured with standard Monte Carlo statistics. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss many of the uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions done with evolutionary models, in order to serve as a roadmap for the uncertainty and the statistical robustness analysis of the long-term evolution of the space debris population.

  11. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  12. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  13. Identifying endpoints to predict the influence of immunosuppression on long-term kidney graft survival.

    PubMed

    Srinivas, Titte R; Oppenheimer, Federico

    2015-07-01

    Identifying a short-term endpoint for use in clinical trials that accurately reflects the influence of specific immunosuppressive regimens on long-term kidney graft survival is challenging. The number, timing, type (T-cell-mediated or antibody mediated), and severity of biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) episodes in terms of histological changes and functional impact are highly influential for graft prognosis, and a crude measure of overall acute rejection incidence alone is unlikely to be a robust predictor of graft outcome. A series of studies has shown remarkably consistent results in terms of the cutoff point for one-yr renal function which predicts poor long-term graft survival, indicating that a threshold of 50 mL/min/1.73 m(2) is likely to be appropriate. Estimated glomerular filtration rate at one yr post-transplant discriminates effectively among immunosuppressive regimens with regard to graft survival, primarily calcineurin inhibitor reduction strategies. Several other factors that can affect graft survival, such as pathological changes in the graft, may be partly influenced by the immunosuppressive regimen, but the contribution of drug therapy is difficult to define. A combined approach in which both treated BPAR and renal function at one yr are used to assess novel immunosuppressive regimens appears to be promising as the emphasis shifts toward sustaining kidney allograft survival over the long term. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes: Is It Really Possible?

    PubMed

    Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger; Pedersen-Bjergaard, Ulrik

    2016-11-01

    Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1 diabetes. A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured. During the 12 years of follow-up, there was a decrease in HbA1c, C-peptide levels, and incidence of SH (1.1 to 0.4 episodes per patient-year; P < .001). At baseline, the relative rate of SH was 3.6 (P = .001) and 10.9 (P < .0001) in patients with impaired awareness and unawareness of hypoglycemia, respectively, as compared to patients with normal awareness. At follow-up, patients with unawareness at baseline tended to have maintained an increased rate of SH (RR = 3.1; P = .07). Impaired awareness, HbA1c and C-peptide determined at baseline did not correspond with an increased rate of SH at follow-up. Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

  15. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    PubMed

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  17. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    SciTech Connect

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm/sup 2//s to 5.0E-3 cm/sup 2//s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm/sup 2//s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles.

  18. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  19. Does Screening Classification Predict Long-Term Outcomes of DWI Offenders?

    PubMed Central

    Lapham, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    Objectives We interviewed 583 driving while intoxicated (DWI) first offenders with substance use disorders (SUDs) to determine the usefulness of a screening classification system in predicting treatment utilization, current SUD, and driving over the alcohol limit (DOL) at 15-year follow-ups. Methods Univariate and multivariate statistics were used to determine predictors of long-term outcomes. Results Screening classification defined groups with different treatment histories and 15-year outcomes. Current SUDs were reported by 21%, and DOL by 10%, of subjects. Conclusions Group differences suggest that screening data could be used more effectively to triage and treat DWI offenders. PMID:20604698

  20. Long-term prediction of polar motion using a combined SSA and ARMA model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Yi; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Xin; Kong, Qiaoli; Guo, Linxi; Li, Wang

    2017-09-01

    To meet the need for real-time and high-accuracy predictions of polar motion (PM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model are combined for short- and long-term PM prediction. According to the SSA results for PM and the SSA prediction algorithm, the principal components of PM were predicted by SSA, and the remaining components were predicted by the ARMA model. In applying this proposed method, multiple sets of PM predictions were made with lead times of two years, based on an IERS 08 C04 series. The observations and predictions of the principal components correlated well, and the SSA + ARMA model effectively predicted the PM. For 360-day lead time predictions, the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of PMx and PMy were 20.67 and 20.42 mas, respectively, which were less than the 24.46 and 24.78 mas predicted by IERS Bulletin A. The RMSEs of PMx and PMy in the 720-day lead time predictions were 28.61 and 27.95 mas, respectively.

  1. Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, M. S.; Nokes, D. J.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island. METHODS: The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel. FINDINGS: First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios. Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity. CONCLUSION: If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached. PMID:11477964

  2. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Jaepil; Shin, Chang-Min; Choi, Hwan-Kyu; Kim, Kyong-Hyeon; Choi, Ji-Yong

    2016-10-01

    The APEC Climate Center (APCC) produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1) the Simple Bias Correction (SBC) method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2) the Moving Window Regression (MWR) method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3) the Climate Index Regression (CIR) method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4) the Integrated Time Regression (ITR) method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  3. Diabetes predicts long-term disability in an elderly urban cohort: the Northern Manhattan Study.

    PubMed

    Dhamoon, Mandip S; Moon, Yeseon Park; Paik, Myunghee C; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

    2014-05-01

    There are limited data on vascular predictors of long-term disability in Hispanics. We hypothesized that (1) functional status declines over time and (2) vascular risk factors predict functional decline. The Northern Manhattan Study contains a population-based study of 3298 stroke-free individuals aged 40 years or older, followed for median 11 years. The Barthel Index (BI) was assessed annually. Generalized estimating equations and Cox models were adjusted for demographic, medical, and social risk factors. Stroke and myocardial infarction occurring during follow-up were censored in sensitivity analysis. Secondarily, motor and nonmotor domains of the BI were analyzed. Mean age (standard deviation) of the cohort (n = 3298) was 69.2 (10) years, 37% were male, 52% Hispanic, 22% diabetic, and 74% hypertensive. There was a mean annual decline of 1.02 BI points (P < .0001). Predictors of decline in BI included age, female sex, diabetes, depression, and normocholesterolemia. Results did not change with censoring. We found similar predictors of BI for motor and nonmotor domains. In this large, population-based, multiethnic study with long-term follow-up, we found a 1% mean decline in function per year that did not change when vascular events were censored. Diabetes predicted functional decline in the absence of clinical vascular events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  5. Predicting the long-term toxicity of five-antibiotic mixtures to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp. Q67.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jin; Chen, Qiong

    2014-09-01

    Concentration addition (CA) is commonly used as a standard additive reference model to predict the short-term toxicity for most chemical mixtures. Whether CA can predict the long-term toxicity of antibiotic mixtures was investigated. The long-term toxicity of five antibiotics including apramycin sulfate, paromomycin sulfate, tetracycline hydrochloride, chloramphenicol and streptomycin sulfate and their mixtures to a photo bacterium Q67 were detected by the long-term toxicity microplate analysis procedure. Seven five-antibiotic mixtures with various concentration ratios and concentration levels were designed by employing uniform design ray method. The long-term mixture toxicity was predicted by CA based on the toxicity data of single antibiotics. The results showed that Weibull or Logit function fit well with the long-term toxicity data of all the components and their mixtures (R>0.98 and RMSE<0.07). According the toxicity index, the negative logarithm of mean effect concentration, the long-term toxicity of the five antibiotics differs greatly and is higher than their short-term toxicity. The predicted values by CA model conformed to the experimental values of mixtures, which implies CA can predict reliable results for the long-term toxicity of antibiotic mixtures.

  6. Short- versus long-term prediction of dementia among subjects with low and high educational levels.

    PubMed

    Chary, Emilie; Amieva, Hélène; Pérès, Karine; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2013-09-01

    Using simple measures of cognition and disability in a prospective community-living cohort of normal elderly persons, the main objectives of our study were to distinguish short- and long-term predictors for dementia according to educational level and to propose a tool for early detection of subjects at high risk of dementia. Data derived from the French cohort study Paquid (Personnes Agées QUID), which included 3777 subjects, older than 65 years of age, who were followed for a 20-year period. The risk of dementia at 3 years and 10 years was estimated by logistic regression for repeated measures combining data from all the 3- and 10-year windows throughout the follow-up. Predictors included disability assessed by the number of dependent items among four instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), four neuropsychological tests, five Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) subtests, and four items of subjective memory complaints. Of the 2882 included subjects, the number of IADLs remained a predictor of short- and long-term conversion to dementia for those with low educational level (combined with only one cognitive test) whereas the best predictors for more educated subjects combined subjective memory complaints and memory and executive function tests. The episodic memory subtest was the only predictive MMSE subtest. In the high-education-level group, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the selected models were 0.85 for 3-year prediction and 0.78 for 10-year prediction. Early predictors of dementia are different according to educational level. Among subjects reaching the secondary school level, early detection of those at high risk of dementia is possible with good predictive performance, with a few simple objective and subjective cognitive evaluations. Copyright © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term polar motion prediction using normal time-frequency transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoqing; Liu, Lintao; Houtse, Hsu; Wang, Guocheng

    2014-02-01

    This paper presents normal time-frequency transform (NTFT) application in harmonic/quasi-harmonic signal prediction. Particularly, we use the normal wavelet transform (a special NTFT) to make long-term polar motion prediction. Instantaneous frequency, phase and amplitude of Chandler wobble, prograde and retrograde annual wobbles of Earth's polar motion are analyzed via the NTFT. Results show that the three main wobbles can be treated as quasi-harmonic processes. Current instantaneous harmonic information of the three wobbles can be acquired by the NTFT that has a kernel function constructed with a normal half-window function. Based on this information, we make the polar motion predictions with lead times of 1 year and 5 years. Results show that our prediction skills are very good with long lead time. An abnormality in the predictions occurs during the second half of 2005 and first half of 2006. Finally, we provide the future (starting from 2013) polar motion predictions with 1- and 5-year leads. These predictions will be used to verify the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.

  8. Ionospheric modeling for short- and long-term predictions of F region parameters over Indian zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dabas, R. S.; Sharma, Kavita; Das, Rupesh M.; Sethi, N. K.; Pillai, K. G. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2008-03-01

    The equatorial and low latitudinal F region ionosphere is highly dynamic and unpredictable because of various geophysical mechanisms operating therein. In the present study, two HF prediction models for short and long term are developed for equatorial and low-latitude F region ionosphere. In the first approach, multiple regression analysis (MRA) for the dependence of F region parameters, namely, foF2 and M(3000)F2, on solar 2800 MHz flux (F10) and geomagnetic index Ap are generated, and in the second one, second-degree (SD) coefficients are generated, both by fitting monthly median foF2 and M(3000)F2 with corresponding 12 monthly mean sunspot numbers (R12) using data over three solar cycles. For MRA, daily foF2 and M(3000)F2 values for each hour obtained from Delhi (28.6°N, 77.1°E) digital ionosonde for about half a solar cycle are used. MRA coefficients for foF2 and M(3000)F2 are obtained for every month over 2400 UT times using daily F10 and Ap values separately for quiet (Ap < 25) and disturbed (Ap > 25) periods. Similarly, SD coefficients are obtained each month at all local times for all the 14 stations covering a geographic latitude range from about 0°N to 45°N. In this way, once appropriate coefficients for each hour for all the 12 months are obtained, they are used by the computer-based MRA and SD models to predict ionospheric hourly foF2 and hmF2 values for given inputs such as month, F10, Ap, and R12, as the case may be. Predicted model values of foF2 and hmF2, calculated on short- and long-term basis, are then compared with the observed data over Delhi and also with those obtained using international reference ionosphere (IRI)-2001 model. From our comparative studies it is observed that MRA and SD models show better agreement with observations compared to the IRI model for both long- and short-term basis and among the two the MRA model provides best agreement with the observed ones, even during the magnetic storm periods. The SD model, on the other

  9. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  10. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    PubMed Central

    Yacoby, Amnon; Dudai, Yadin; Mendelsohn, Avi

    2015-01-01

    Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK). We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and were immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or 1 day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information 1 day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories. PMID:25709571

  11. Soft tissue profile changes following mandibular advancement surgery: predictability and long-term outcome.

    PubMed

    Mobarak, K A; Espeland, L; Krogstad, O; Lyberg, T

    2001-04-01

    The objectives of this cephalometric study were to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular advancement surgery and to investigate the relationship between soft tissue and hard tissue movements. The sample consisted of 61 patients treated consecutively for mandibular retrognathism with orthodontic therapy combined with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken on 6 occasions: immediately before surgery, immediately after surgery, 2 and 6 months after surgery, and 1 and 3 years after surgery. Postsurgical changes in the upper and the lower lips and the mentolabial fold were more pronounced among low-angle cases compared with high-angle cases. In accordance with other studies, the soft tissue chin and the mentolabial fold were generally found to follow their underlying skeletal structures in a 1:1 ratio. Because of the strong influence skeletal relapse has on soft tissue profile changes, alternative ratios of soft tissue-to-hard tissue movement that accounted for mean relapse were also generated. It is suggested that if a more realistic long-term prediction of the postsurgical soft tissue profile is desirable, then ratios incorporating mean relapse should be used rather than estimates based on a 1:1 relationship.

  12. Biotests using unicellular algae and ciliates for predicting long-term effects of toxicants.

    PubMed

    Schäfer, H; Hettler, H; Fritsche, U; Pitzen, G; Röderer, G; Wenzel, A

    1994-02-01

    Test systems for predicting long-term effects with the freshwater algae Chlamydomonas reinhardi and Scenedesmus subspicatus and the ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis were evaluated with respect to the following reference chemicals: atrazine, bromacil, diuron, methyl parathion, lindane, 3,4-dichloroaniline, pentachlorophenol, cadmium, copper, and the volatile 1,2-dichloropropane. In growth-inhibition tests under static conditions the algae revealed a higher sensitivity to the toxicants than the ciliate except for lindane and methyl parathion. Comparison of the impairment of photosynthetic efficiency (EPR, NOEC 24 hr) with the inhibition of growth (NOEC 72 hr) of S. subspicatus revealed a higher sensitivity of the EPR parameter for inhibitors of the photosynthesis. A flowthrough system was developed for long-term tests and testing of volatile and instable substances. Under flowthrough conditions C. reinhardi was more susceptible to the chemicals than under static test conditions, except for pentachlorophenol. Due to the high volatility, 1,2-dichloropropane was only tested in the flowthrough system. The data obtained from these toxicity tests provide information about effects on organisms representing different levels of the aquatic food web, possessing differences in sensitivity against toxicants. The presented flowthrough system allows the testing of volatile and instable chemicals, problematic in static test systems, and the EPR parameter is suitable for the early characterization of chemicals acting as specific inhibitors of the photosynthetic electron transport chain.

  13. Web-based decision support system to predict risk level of long term rice production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhlash, Imam; Maulidiyah, Ratna; Sutikno; Setiyono, Budi

    2017-09-01

    Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

  14. Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8-5.6 TECU for different period sets.

  15. Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability.

    PubMed

    Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

    2014-01-01

    Empirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this longitudinal study, professionals [2010 (T0): n=218, 55% response rate; 2011 (T1): n=300, 68% response rate; 2012 (T2): n=265, 63% response rate] from 22 Dutch disease-management programs completed surveys assessing quality of care and program sustainability. Our study findings indicated that quality of chronic care delivery improved significantly in the first 2 years after implementation of the disease-management programs. At T1, overall quality, self-management support, delivery system design, and integration of chronic care components, as well as health care delivery and clinical information systems and decision support, had improved. At T2, overall quality again improved significantly, as did community linkages, delivery system design, clinical information systems, decision support and integration of chronic care components, and self-management support. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that quality of chronic care delivery at T0 (p<0.001) and quality changes in the first (p<0.001) and second (p<0.01) years predicted program sustainability. In conclusion this study showed that disease-management programs based on the chronic care model improved the quality of chronic care delivery over time and that short and long term changes in the quality of chronic care delivery predicted the sustainability of the projects.

  16. Do short-term markers of treatment efficacy predict long-term sequelae of PID?

    PubMed Central

    Trautmann, Gail M.; Kip, Kevin E.; Richter, Holly E.; Soper, David E.; Peipert, Jeffrey F.; Nelson, Deborah B.; Trout, Wayne; Schubeck, Dianne; Bass, Debra C.; Ness, Roberta B.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To assess whether short-term markers, often used to measure clinical cure after treatment for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), predict sequelae of lack of pregnancy, recurrent PID, and chronic pelvic pain. Study Design Women with mild-to-moderate PID were assessed after treatment initiation at five days for tenderness (n=713) and at thirty days for tenderness, cervical infections and endometritis (n=298). Pregnancy, recurrent PID and chronic pelvic pain were evaluated after 84 months, on average. Results Pelvic tenderness at five and at thirty days significantly elevated the risk for developing chronic pelvic pain; tenderness at thirty days was also significantly associated with recurrent PID. However, pelvic tenderness at five and at thirty days were only modestly clinically predictive of chronic pelvic pain or recurrent PID (positive predictive values 22.1–66.9%). No short-term marker significantly influenced the likelihood of achieving a pregnancy. Conclusion Tenderness at 5 or 30 days did not accurately predict the occurrence of PID-related reproductive morbidities. CONCISE Tenderness at 5 or 30 days and microbiologic cure post-pelvic inflammatory disease treatment did not accurately predict long-term sequelae including chronic pelvic pain, fertility, and recurrence. PMID:18166300

  17. Predicting plant uptake of cadmium: validated with long-term contaminated soils.

    PubMed

    Lamb, Dane T; Kader, Mohammed; Ming, Hui; Wang, Liang; Abbasi, Sedigheh; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2016-10-01

    Cadmium accumulates in plant tissues at low soil loadings and is a concern for human health. Yet at higher levels it is also of concern for ecological receptors. We determined Cd partitioning constants for 41 soils to examine the role of soil properties controlling Cd partitioning and plant uptake. From a series of sorption and dose response studies, transfer functions were developed for predicting Cd uptake in Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber). The parameter log Kf was predicted with soil pHca, logCEC and log OC. Transfer of soil pore-water Cd(2+) to shoots was described with a power function (R (2) = 0.73). The dataset was validated with 13 long-term contaminated soils (plus 2 control soils) ranging in Cd concentration from 0.2 to 300 mg kg(-1). The series of equations predicting Cdshoot from pore-water Cd(2+) were able to predict the measured data in the independent dataset (root mean square error = 2.2). The good relationship indicated that Cd uptake to cucumber shoots could be predicted with Cdpore and Cd(2+) without other pore-water parameters such as pH or Ca(2+). The approach may be adapted to a range of plant species.

  18. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    PubMed

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes.

  19. Anger Problems Predict Long-Term Criminal Recidivism in Partner Violent Men.

    PubMed

    Farzan-Kashani, Julian; Murphy, Christopher M

    2015-08-18

    The current study investigated the influence of anger problems on partner violent men's long-term response to treatment, as indicated by criminal recidivism during an 8-year period after treatment initiation. Participants were 132 men who presented for treatment services at a community-based domestic violence agency. Results indicated that individuals with extensive anger problems had more charges for general violence (GV) offenses and more ongoing problems with protection orders than did those with Normal Anger (NA) profiles. Examinations of specific anger scales indicated that low Anger Control (LAC) and high Anger Expression predict GV recidivism. These findings indicate that a standard cognitive-behavioral treatment program may not adequately reduce the recidivism risk of partner violent men with pronounced anger problems, stress the importance of further research to understand the role of anger problems in partner violence treatment, and highlight the need to develop and evaluate new intervention approaches for partner violent men with serious anger dysregulation.

  20. Long-Term Predictions from Early Adolescent Attachment State of Mind to Romantic Relationship Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Tan, Joseph S; Hessel, Elenda T; Loeb, Emily L; Schad, Megan M; Allen, Joseph P; Chango, Joanna M

    2016-12-01

    Attachment state of mind was investigated as a long-term predictor of romantic relationship competence. A secure early adolescent attachment state of mind was hypothesized to predict more constructive dyadic behaviors during conflict discussions and support seeking interactions in late adolescence and early adulthood. Utilizing multi-method data from a community sample of 184 individuals, followed from ages 14 to 21, adolescents with a secure attachment state of mind at age 14 were found to be in relationships that displayed more constructive dyadic conflict discussion behaviors and dyadic supportive behaviors at both ages 18 and 21. Results suggest substantial links between early adolescent attachment state of mind and the adult romantic relationship atmosphere an individual creates and experiences.

  1. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1992-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  2. [Possibility to predict cosmonauts' orthostatic tolerance following short-and long-term space flights].

    PubMed

    Fomina, G A; Kotovskaia, A R; Zhernavkov, A F; Pochuev, V I

    2007-01-01

    According to the analysis of the data of active and passive orthostatic tolerance (OST) testing before and after 67 short- (SSF) and 53 long-term (LSF) space flights OST declined in all the cosmonauts regardless of flight length. Active testing on R+1 after SSF (7 to 25 d) and LSF (49 to 438 d) attested OST loss by 33% and 48%, respectively. Full OST recovery following SSF and LSF was observed in a week and 1.5-2 months, respectively. A correlation was established (r = 0.81) between the post-flight OST loss and pre-flight baseline value. Depending on whether the pre-flight OST value was very good, good or satisfactory, its loss on R+1 after LSF can make up 20-30%, 30-50% and 55-65%, respectively. Consequently, data of preflight OST testing can be used for prediction of its decline post normal space flight.

  3. Long-term optical reliability and lifetime predictability of double clad fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abramczyk, Jaroslaw; Govindarajan, Harish; Cunningham, Wells; Guertin, Douglas; Tankala, Kanishka

    2015-03-01

    With the use of fiber lasers pervading diverse applications and environmental conditions, the long-term reliability of low index (LI) polymer coated double-clad (DC) fibers used for this purpose is significant. Mechanical reliability standards for 125um fibers are well established by Telcordia GR-20-CORE requirements and some work1 has been published investigating optical reliability of DC fibers with specially engineered coatings with respect to accelerated temperature and humidity aging. While these are helpful in providing a figure of merit to the optical reliability of LI fluoroacrylate coatings, it becomes important to decouple the effects of temperature and humidity in order to understand the underlying degradation mechanisms of LI polymers in various storage and operating environments. This paper identifies the effects of temperature and humidity on the spectral attenuation of DC fibers and presents a reliability model capable of predicting lifetimes under prolonged exposure to typical temperature and humidity conditions experienced during storage and operation of fiber lasers.

  4. Climate change forecasts, long-term spatio-temporal prediction and the resilience of dry ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafran-Natan, Rakefet; Svoray, Tal; Avi, Perevolotsky

    2010-05-01

    Primary production is an important indicator to climatic changes in drylands, while reduction in productivity has many consequences on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change should lead to a change in spatial patterns of grasses without a substantial change in ecosystem resilience. We used field data and a recently published spatio-temporally explicit model to study factors affecting long-term variation in primary production in two dry ecosystems: semi-arid (SAE) and Mediterranean (DME) dominated by annual vegetation. The model was operated in both patch and landscape scales and was executed along 30 years (1979-2008) at SAE and along 21 years (1986-1990; 1993-2008) at DME. Model predictions were validated against samples that were harvested in each site at the end of the growing season, over 15 seasons (1994-2008) at SAE (0.63

  5. Stress and reward: long term cortisol exposure predicts the strength of sexual preference.

    PubMed

    Chumbley, J R; Hulme, O; Köchli, H; Russell, E; Van Uum, S; A Pizzagalli, D; Fehr, E

    2014-05-28

    Healthy individuals tend to consume available rewards like food and sex. This tendency is attenuated or amplified in most stress-related psychiatric conditions, so we asked if it depends on endogenous levels of the 'canonical stress hormone' cortisol. We unobtrusively quantified how hard healthy heterosexual men would work to consume erotic images of women versus men and also measured their exposure to endogenous cortisol in the prior two months. We used linear models to predict the strength of sexual preference from cortisol level, after accounting for other potential explanations. Heterosexual preference declines with self-reported anhedonia but increases with long term exposure to endogenous cortisol. These results suggest that cortisol may affect reward-related behavior in healthy adults.

  6. SY 04-2 LONG-TERM CVD RISK PREDICTION IN LOW-INCIDENCE EUROPEAN POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    In Italy, the European SCORE Project risk score is the recommended tool for cardiovascular disease risk stratification in the primary prevention setting. Among non-diabetic subjects aged 40 to 64, the model estimates the 10-year probability of death due to cardiovascular disease based on individual's age, total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking status. A growing body of evidence suggests that in middle-aged adults this stratification may suffer from two major drawbacks. First, mortality risk severely underestimates the global burden of disease incidence. Second, younger individuals and women are likely to be classified in the "low 10-year risk" category despite the presence of risk factors.The latest European and American guidelines have eventually introduced the assessment of long-term risk of disease as additional tool to improve risk communication and increase risk awareness. Long-term risk scores were first developed in the US and in the UK, i.e. in high-risk populations. In low-incidence populations, these models may have poor calibration and discrimination ability, as shown for the Framingham equation. Therefore, our research team developed and validated a 20-year risk score for the Italian population. As part of a collaborative study with the Italian Health Institute, we pooled 7 population-based cohorts of middle-aged individuals recruited in Northern and in Central Italy in mid 1980 s and early 1990 s following a similar protocol with standardized MONICA procedures. Overall, more than 10500 men and women 35-69 years old and free of CVD at baseline, who developed 830 first major atherosclerotic events (coronary heart disease or ischemic strokes) during a median 17 years of follow-up. The score was based on traditional risk factors (age, blood lipids, systolic blood pressure and treatment, smoking and diabetes). In addition, social status and family history of coronary heart disease did improve risk prediction, at least in men. Finally we showed

  7. Prediction of Long-term Renal Allograft Outcome By Early Urinary CXCL10 Chemokine Levels

    PubMed Central

    Hirt-Minkowski, Patricia; Ho, Julie; Gao, Ang; Amico, Patrizia; Koller, Michael T.; Hopfer, Helmut; Rush, David N.; Nickerson, Peter W.; Schaub, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Background Predictive biomarkers for long-term renal allograft outcome could help to individualize follow-up strategies and therapeutic interventions. Methods We investigated the predictive value of urinary CXC chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) measured at different timepoints (ie, at 3 and 6 months, and mean of 3 and 6 months coined CXCL10-burden) for long-term allograft outcomes in 154 patients. The primary outcome was a composite graft endpoint of death-censored allograft loss and/or biopsy-proven rejection and/or decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate greater than 20% occurring beyond 6 months after transplantation. Results After a median follow-up of 6.6 years (interquartile range, 5.7-7.5 years) the endpoint was reached in 43/154 patients (28%). In a multivariable Cox-regression model independent predictors were 6-month CXCL10 levels, the CXCL10-burden, HLA-mismatches, donor age and delayed graft function while previous (sub)clinical rejection, estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria at 6 months, as well as 3-month CXCL10 levels were not. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.68 (6-month CXCL10) and 0.67 (CXCL10-burden). Grouped by optimal cutoff, low 6-month CXCL10 (<0.70 ng/mmol) was associated with a 95% endpoint-free 5-year survival compared to 78% with high 6-month CXCL10 (P = 0.0007). Only 2 of 62 patients (3%) with low 6-month CXCL10 levels (<0.70 ng/mmol) experienced late rejection or graft loss due to rejection compared to 15 of 92 patients (16%) with high 6-month CXCL10 levels (P = 0.008). Similar results were obtained when patients were grouped according to CXCL10-burden (cutoff, 1.06 ng/mmol). Conclusions Six-month urinary CXCL10 is an independent predictor for long-term graft outcome and thus might be a supplementary tool to tailor surveillance strategies and therapy. PMID:27500231

  8. Creep studies for zircaloy life prediction in water reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murty, K. Linga

    1999-10-01

    Zirconium alloys, commonly used as cladding tubes in water reactors, undergo complex biaxial creep deformation. The anisotropic nature of these metals makes it relatively complex to predict their dimensional changes in-reactor. These alloys exhibit transients in creep mechanisms as stress levels change. The underlying creep mechanisms and creep anisotropy depend on the alloy composition as well as the thermomechanical treatment. The anisotropic biaxial creep of cold-worked and recrystallized Zircaloy-4 in terms of Hill’s generalized stress formulation is described, and the temperature and stress dependencies of the steady-state creep rate are reviewed. Predictive models that incorporate anelastic strain are used for transient and transients in creep.

  9. The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

    2014-07-01

    Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Creep: long-term time-dependent rock deformation in a deep-sea laboratory in the ionian sea: a pilot study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, P.; Boon, S.; Vinciguerra, S.; Bowles, J.; Hughes, N.; Migneco, E.; Musumeci, M.; Piattelli, P.; Riccobene, G.; Vinciguerra, D.

    2003-04-01

    Time-dependent brittle rock deformation is of first-order importance for understanding the long-term behaviour of water saturated rocks in the Earth's upper crust. The traditional way of investigating this has been to carry out laboratory "brittle creep" experiments. Results have been interpreted involving three individual creep phases; primary (decelerating), secondary (constant strain rate or steady state) and tertiary (accelerating or unstable). The deformation may be distributed during the first two, but localizes onto a fault plane during phase three. However, it is difficult to distinguish between competing mechanisms and models given the lower limit of strain rates practicably achievable in the laboratory. The study reported here aims to address this problem directly by extending significantly the range of achievable strain rates through much longer-term experiments conducted in a deep-sea laboratory in the Ionian sea. The project takes advantage of a collaboration with the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud (LNS) of the Italian National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN), that is developing a deep-sea laboratory for a very large volume (1 km3) deep-sea detector of high-energy (>1019 eV) cosmic neutrinos (NEMO). A suitable deep-sea site has been identified, some 20km south-west of Catania in Sicily, with flat bathymetry at a depth of 2100m. The CREEP deformation apparatus is driven by an actuator that amplifies the ambient water pressure, while the confining pressure around the rock sample is provided by the ambient water pressure (>20MPa). Measurement transducers and a low-energy data acquisition system are sealed internally, with power provided for up to 6 months by an internal battery pack. The great advantage of operating in the deep sea in this way is that the system is simple; it is "passive", has few moving parts, and requires no maintenance. The apparatus is fixed approximately 10m above the seabed; held in place by a disposable concrete anchor and

  11. Repolarization Heterogeneity of Magnetocardiography Predicts Long-Term Prognosis in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Bang, Woo-Dae; Kim, Kiwoong; Lee, Yong-Ho; Kwon, Hyukchan; Park, Yongki; Pak, Hui-Nam; Ko, Young-Guk; Lee, Moonhyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Magnetocardiography (MCG) has been proposed as a noninvasive, diagnostic tool for risk-stratifying patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study evaluated whether MCG predicts long-term prognosis in AMI. Materials and Methods In 124 AMI patients (95 males, mean age 60±11 years), including 39 with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, a 64-channel MCG was performed within 2 days after AMI. During a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were evaluated. Results MACE occurred in 31 (25%) patients, including 20 revascularizations, 8 deaths, and 3 re-infarctions. Non-dipole patterns were observed at the end of the T wave in every patients. However, they were observed at T-peak in 77% (24/31) and 54% (50/93) of patients with and without MACE, respectively (p=0.03). Maximum current, field map angles, and distance dynamics were not different between groups. In the multivariate analysis, patients with non-dipole patterns at T-peak had increased age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for MACE (hazard ratio 2.89, 95% confidence interval 1.20–6.97, p=0.02) and lower cumulative MACE-free survival than those with dipole patterns (p=0.02). Conclusion Non-dipole patterns at T-peak were more frequently observed in patients with MACE and were related to poor long-term prognosis. Thus, repolarization heterogeneity measured by MCG may be a useful predictor for AMI prognosis. PMID:27593860

  12. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1991-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  13. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

    2015-09-01

    Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

  14. What predicts mortality in Parkinson disease?: a prospective population-based long-term study.

    PubMed

    Forsaa, E B; Larsen, J P; Wentzel-Larsen, T; Alves, G

    2010-10-05

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality in a community-based Parkinson disease (PD) cohort during prospective long-term follow-up. A community-based prevalent sample of 230 patients with PD from southwestern Norway was followed prospectively with repetitive assessments of motor and nonmotor symptoms from 1993 to 2005. Information on vital status until October 20, 2009, was obtained from the National Population Register in Norway. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to identify independent predictors of mortality during follow-up. Chronological age, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor score, levodopa equivalent dose, probable REM sleep behavior disorder, psychotic symptoms, dementia, and use of antipsychotics were included as time-dependent variables, and age at onset (AAO) and sex as time-independent variables. Of 230 patients, 211 (92%) died during the study period. Median survival time from motor onset was 15.8 years (range 2.2-36.6). Independent predictors of mortality during follow-up were AAO (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40 for 10-years increase, p = 0.029), chronological age (HR 1.51 for 10-years increase, p = 0.043), male sex (HR 1.63, p = 0.001), UPDRS motor score (HR 1.18 for 10-point increase, p < 0.001), psychotic symptoms (HR 1.45, p = 0.039), and dementia (HR 1.89, p = 0.001). This population-based long-term study demonstrates that in addition to AAO, chronological age, motor severity, and dementia, psychotic symptoms independently predict increased mortality in PD. In contrast, no significant impact of antipsychotic or antiparkinsonian drugs on survival was observed in our PD cohort. Early prevention of motor progression and development of psychosis and dementia may be the most promising strategies to increase life expectancy in PD.

  15. Short- and long-term effects of habitat fragmentation differ but are predicted by response to the matrix.

    PubMed

    Evans, Maldwyn J; Banks, Sam C; Driscoll, Don A; Hicks, Andrew J; Melbourne, Brett A; Davies, Kendi F

    2017-03-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Our current understanding of the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation is based largely on studies that focus on either short-term or long-term responses. Short-term responses are often used to predict long-term responses and make management decisions. The lack of studies comparing short- and long-term responses to fragmentation means we do not adequately understand when and how well short-term responses can be extrapolated to predict long-term responses, and when or why they cannot. To address this gap, we used data from one of the world's longest-running fragmentation experiments, The Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment. Using data for carabid beetles, we found that responses in the long term (more than 22 yr post-fragmentation ≈22 generations) often contrasted markedly with those in the short term (5 yr post-fragmentation). The total abundance of all carabids, species richness and the occurrence of six species declined in the short term in the fragments but increased over the long term. The occurrence of three species declined initially and continued to decline, whilst another species was positively affected initially but decreased in the long term. Species' responses to the matrix that surrounds the fragments strongly predicted both the direction (increase/decline in occurrence) and magnitude of their responses to fragmentation. Additionally, species' responses to the matrix were somewhat predicted by their preferences for different types of native habitat (open vs. shaded). Our study highlights the degree of the matrix's influence in fragmented landscapes, and how this influence can change over time. We urge caution in using short-term responses to forecast long-term responses in cases where the matrix (1) impacts species' responses to fragmentation (by isolating them, creating new habitat or altering fragment habitat) and (2) is likely to change through time

  16. Coronary artery calcifications predict long term cardiovascular events in non diabetic Caucasian hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Noce, Annalisa; Canale, Maria Paola; Capria, Ambrogio; Rovella, Valentina; Tesauro, Manfredi; Splendiani, Giorgio; Annicchiarico-Petruzzelli, Margherita; Manzuoli, Micol; Simonetti, Giovanni; Di Daniele, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Vascular calcifications are frequent in chronic renal disease and are associated to significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The long term predictive value of coronary artery calcifications detected by multi-layer spiral computed tomography for major cardiovascular events was evaluated in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis free of clinical cardiovascular disease. Two-hundred and five patients on maintenance hemodialysis were enrolled into this observational, prospective cohort study. Patients underwent a single cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography. Calcium load was quantified and patients grouped according to the Agatston score: group 1 (Agatston score: 0), group 2 (Agatston score 1-400), group 3 (Agatston score 401-1000) and group 4 (Agatston score >1000). Follow-up was longer than seven years. Primary endpoint was death from a major cardiovascular event. Actuarial survival was calculated separately in the four groups with Kaplan-Meier method. Patients who died from causes other than cardiovascular disease and transplanted patients were censored. The “log rank” test was employed to compare survival curves. One-hundred two patients (49.7%) died for a major cardiovascular event during the follow-up period. Seven-year actuarial survival was more than 90% for groups 1 and 2, but failed to about 50% for group 3 and to <10% for group 4. Hence, Agatston score >400 predicts a significantly higher cardiovascular mortality compared with Agatston score <400 (p<0.0001); furthermore, serum Parathyroid hormone levels > 300 pg/l were associated to a lower survival (p < 0.05). Extended coronary artery calcifications detected by cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography, strongly predicted long term cardiovascular mortality in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Moreover, it was not related to conventional indices of atherosclerosis, but to other non-traditional risk factors, as serum Parathyroid

  17. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sun-Young; Yi, Seon-Ju; Eum, Young Seob; Choi, Hae-Jin; Shin, Hyesop; Ryou, Hyoung Gon; Kim, Ho

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively). Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics. PMID:25262773

  18. Elevated Omentin Serum Levels Predict Long-Term Survival in Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Luedde, Mark; Benz, Fabian; Niedeggen, Jennifer; Vucur, Mihael; Hippe, Hans-Joerg; Spehlmann, Martina E.; Schueller, Florian; Loosen, Sven; Frey, Norbert; Trautwein, Christian; Koch, Alexander; Luedde, Tom; Tacke, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Omentin, a recently described adipokine, was shown to be involved in the pathophysiology of inflammatory and infectious diseases. However, its role in critical illness and sepsis is currently unknown. Materials and Methods. Omentin serum concentrations were measured in 117 ICU-patients (84 with septic and 33 with nonseptic disease etiology) admitted to the medical ICU. Results were compared with 50 healthy controls. Results. Omentin serum levels of critically ill patients at admission to the ICU or after 72 hours of ICU treatment were similar compared to healthy controls. Moreover, circulating omentin levels were independent of sepsis and etiology of critical illness. Notably, serum concentrations of omentin could not be linked to concentrations of inflammatory cytokines or routinely used sepsis markers. While serum levels of omentin were not predictive for short term survival during ICU treatment, low omentin concentrations were an independent predictor of patients' overall survival. Omentin levels strongly correlated with that of other adipokines (e.g., leptin receptor or adiponectin), which have also been identified as prognostic markers in critical illness. Conclusions. Although circulating omentin levels did not differ between ICU-patients and controls, elevated omentin levels were predictive for an impaired patients' long term survival. PMID:27867249

  19. Resource use patterns predict long-term outcomes of plant competition for nutrients and light.

    PubMed

    Dybzinski, Ray; Tilman, David

    2007-09-01

    An 11-year competition experiment among combinations of six prairie perennial plant species showed that resource competition theory generally predicted the long-term outcome of competition. We grew each species in replicated monocultures to determine its requirements for soil nitrate (R*) and light (I*). In six pairwise combinations, the species with the lower R* and I* excluded its competitor, as predicted by theory. In the remaining two pairwise combinations, one species had a lower R*, and the second had a lower I*; these species pairs coexisted, although it is unclear whether resource competition alone was responsible for their coexistence. Smaller differences in R* or I* between competing species led to slower rates of competitive exclusion, and the influence of R* differences on the rate of competitive exclusion was more pronounced on low-nitrogen soils, while the influence of I* differences was more pronounced on high-nitrogen (low-light) soils. These results were not explained by differences in initial species abundances or neutrality. However, only a few of our paired species coexisted under our experimentally imposed conditions (homogeneous soils, high seeding densities, minimal disturbance, regular water, and low herbivory levels), suggesting that other coexistence mechanisms help generate the diversity observed in natural communities.

  20. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  1. Preschool Speech Intelligibility and Vocabulary Skills Predict Long-Term Speech and Language Outcomes Following Cochlear Implantation in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G.; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C.; Colson, Bethany G.; Pisoni, David B.

    2013-01-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants, but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine if early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of cochlear implants. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3 – 6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes. PMID:23998347

  2. Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2017-01-01

    We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5  cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35  cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value uf in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12  yrs.Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12  yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of uf) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in uf for the Napa event fell to ≤2  cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

  3. Lesion Load May Predict Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lavorgna, Luigi; Messina, Silvia; Chisari, Clara Grazia; Ippolito, Domenico; Lanzillo, Roberta; Vacchiano, Veria; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Paola; Coniglio, Gabriella; Buccafusca, Maria; Paolicelli, Damiano; D’Ambrosio, Alessandro; Montella, Patrizia; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Alfano, Bruno; Gallo, Antonio; Simone, Isabella; Viterbo, Rosa; Zappia, Mario; Bonavita, Simona; Tedeschi, Gioacchino

    2015-01-01

    Background Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm) in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives To investigate the role of white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients. Methods 303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up). The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f) of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f), WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f), a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL), the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT). In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors. Results AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12–1.97 p = 0.006), PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14–1.80 p = 0.002), SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35–2.20 p<0.001), SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28–2.03 p<0.001), MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2–1.9 p<0.001), MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2–1.9 p = 0.001), MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02–1.55 p = 0.032). Conclusion In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome. PMID:25816303

  4. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  5. A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

    2017-04-01

    "Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term

  6. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-06-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan-Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy.

  7. Clinical, biochemical, and neuroimaging findings predict long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus infection.

    PubMed

    Alarcon, Ana; Martinez-Biarge, Miriam; Cabañas, Fernando; Hernanz, Angel; Quero, Jose; Garcia-Alix, Alfredo

    2013-09-01

    To evaluate clinical, biochemical, and neuroimaging findings as predictors of neurodevelopmental outcome in patients with symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV). The study cohort comprised 26 patients with symptomatic congenital CMV born between 1993 and 2009 in a single center. Absolute and weight deficit-adjusted head circumference were considered. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) investigations included standard cytochemical analysis, determination of beta2-microglobulin (β2-m), neuron-specific enolase, and CMV DNA detection. Neuroimaging was classified according to a validated scoring system comprising calcifications, ventriculomegaly, and atrophy, with findings graded from 0 to 3. Systematic long-term neurodevelopmental assessment included motor function, cognition, behavior, hearing, vision, and epilepsy. Sequelae were graded as mild/absent, moderate, or severe; adverse outcome was defined as death or moderate to severe disability. Three children died. The mean age at follow-up of the survivors was 8.7 ± 5.3 years (range, 19 months to 18.0 years). Neonatal findings showing a significant association with adverse outcome were relative microcephaly, CSF β2-m concentrations, and grade 2-3 neuroimaging abnormalities (P < .05). Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis indicated that the most accurate single factor for predicting unfavorable outcome was CSF β2-m >7.9 mg/L (area under the curve, 0.84 ± 0.08; sensitivity, 69%; specificity, 100%). The combination of CSF β2-m >7.9 mg/L and moderate-severe neuroimaging alterations improved predictive ability (area under the curve, 0.92 ± 0.06; sensitivity, 87%; specificity, 100%). Adjusted head circumference, CSF β2-m level, and neuroimaging studies have prognostic significance for neurodevelopmental outcome in newborns with congenital CMV. A combination of early findings improves the predictive value. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-01-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy. PMID:25712893

  9. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect

    Gollany, H. T.; Rickman, R. W.; Albrecht, S. L.; Liang, Y.; Kang, Shujiang; Machado, S.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the potential of no-tillage (NT) management to maintain SOC stocks while removing crop residue. Classical LTEs at Champaign, IL (1876), Columbia, MO (1888), Lethbridge, AB (1911), Breton, AB (1930), and Pendleton, OR (1931) were selected for their documented history of management practice and periodic soil organic matter (SOM) measurements. Management practices ranged from monoculture to 2- or 3-yr crop rotations, manure, no fertilizer or fertilizer additions, and crop residue returned, burned, or harvested. Measured and CQESTR predicted SOC stocks under diverse agronomic practices, mean annual temperature (2.1 19 C), precipitation (402 973 mm), and SOC (5.89 33.58 g SOC kg 1) at the LTE sites were significantly related (r 2 = 0.94, n = 186, P < 0.0001) with a slope not significantly different than 1. The simulation results indicated that the quantities of crop residue that can be sustainably harvested without jeopardizing SOC stocks were influenced by initial SOC stocks, crop rotation intensity, tillage practices, crop yield, and climate. Manure or a cover crop/intensified crop rotation under NT are options to mitigate loss of crop residue C, as using fertilizer alone is insufficient to overcome residue removal impact on SOC stocks

  10. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    PubMed

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  11. Glycated Albumin Predicts Long-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Ma, Wen-Ya; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Liu, Yueh-Min; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: In patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing maintenance hemodialysis, glycated albumin (GA) levels may be more representative of blood glucose levels than hemoglobin A1C levels. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of GA levels on long-term survival in hemodialysis patients. Methods: A total of 176 patients with a mean age of 68.2 years were enrolled. The median duration of follow-up was 51.0 months. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff value. We examined the cumulative survival rate by Kaplan-Meier estimates and the influence of known survival factors with the multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression model. Results: In the whole patient group, cumulative survival in the low GA group was better than in the high GA group (p=0.030), with more prominence in those aged <70 years (p=0.029). In subgroup analysis, both diabetic (DM) and non-DM patients with low GA had a better cumulative survival compared with those with high GA. The risk of mortality increased by 3.0% for each 1% increase in serum GA level in all patients undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusions: In addition to serving as a glycemic control marker, GA levels may be useful for evaluating the risk of death in both DM and non-DM patients on hemodialysis. PMID:27226780

  12. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-12-31

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion.

  13. Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

    The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

  14. The applicability of semi-analytical method for different orbits in long term prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Dawei; Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin

    2016-07-01

    To understand the long-term evolution and distribution of the space objects, it is necessary to propagate the orbits of respective objects. Compared with the short-term prediction of a few days, the priority concerns are the accuracy of major orbital elements including the semi-major axis and eccentricity which define the shape of the orbit, the orbital inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node which define the orientation of the orbit, as well as the calculation speed. Given such requirement, it is preferable to adopt the semi-analytical method, which averages the system over the orbital period, and integrates the averaged system using the numerical method. However, throughout available literatures, it is rarely seen that the semi-analytical methods are quantitatively assessed regarding the accuracy when applied to various types of orbits. In this paper, we would like to report our implementation and assessment of the semi-analytical method. The quantitative assessment covers the commonly used orbits for Earth satellites. In some rare special cases where the performance of our method appears abnormal, we discuss the reasons and possible solutions.

  15. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-01-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reaches an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature, and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes circa 300 years for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  16. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  17. Soluble Co-Signaling Molecules Predict Long-Term Graft Outcome in Kidney-Transplanted Patients

    PubMed Central

    Melendreras, Susana G.; Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Menéndez, Aurora; Bravo-Mendoza, Cristina; González-Vidal, Ana; Coto, Eliecer; Díaz-Corte, Carmen; Ruiz-Ortega, Marta; López-Larrea, Carlos; Suárez-Álvarez, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    Co-signaling molecules are responsible for full T-cell activation after solid organ transplantation. Their increased expression can lead to the release of a soluble form that can modulate the immune response post-transplantation. We analyzed the presence of co-signaling molecules (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137, sCTLA-4, sCD80, sCD28, sCD40L, sPD-1, and sPD-L1) in serum from kidney-transplanted patients (n = 59) obtained at different times (before transplantation, and 15 days, 3 months and 1 year post-transplantation) and their contribution to graft outcome was evaluated using principal component analysis. Before transplantation, high levels of soluble co-signaling molecules (mainly sCD30, sCD137 and sCD40) were detected in all patients. These molecules were modulated soon after receiving an allograft but never attained similar levels to those of healthy controls. A signature based on the determination of six soluble co-stimulatory (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137 and sCD40L) and co-inhibitory (sPD-1 and sPD-L1) molecules at 3 months post-transplantation allowed a group of patients to be identified (27.12%) with a worse long-term graft outcome. Patients with high levels of soluble molecules showed a progressive and gradual deterioration of kidney function (increased creatinine and proteinuria levels and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate) over time and a higher risk of graft loss at 6 years post-transplantation than patients with low levels of these molecules (62.55% versus 5.14%, p<0.001). Thus, our data show an aberrant expression of soluble co-signaling molecules in kidney-transplanted patients whose quantification at 3 months post-transplantation might be a useful biomarker of immune status and help to predict long-term graft evolution. PMID:25478957

  18. Predicting long-term carbon mineralization and trace gas production from thawing permafrost of Northeast Siberia.

    PubMed

    Knoblauch, Christian; Beer, Christian; Sosnin, Alexander; Wagner, Dirk; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2013-04-01

    The currently observed Arctic warming will increase permafrost degradation followed by mineralization of formerly frozen organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ). Despite increasing awareness of permafrost carbon vulnerability, the potential long-term formation of trace gases from thawing permafrost remains unclear. The objective of the current study is to quantify the potential long-term release of trace gases from permafrost organic matter. Therefore, Holocene and Pleistocene permafrost deposits were sampled in the Lena River Delta, Northeast Siberia. The sampled permafrost contained between 0.6% and 12.4% organic carbon. CO2 and CH4 production was measured for 1200 days in aerobic and anaerobic incubations at 4 °C. The derived fluxes were used to estimate parameters of a two pool carbon degradation model. Total CO2 production was similar in Holocene permafrost (1.3 ± 0.8 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.25 ± 0.13 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically) as in 34 000-42 000-year-old Pleistocene permafrost (1.6 ± 1.2 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.26 ± 0.10 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically). The main predictor for carbon mineralization was the content of organic matter. Anaerobic conditions strongly reduced carbon mineralization since only 25% of aerobically mineralized carbon was released as CO2 and CH4 in the absence of oxygen. CH4 production was low or absent in most of the Pleistocene permafrost and always started after a significant delay. After 1200 days on average 3.1% of initial carbon was mineralized to CO2 under aerobic conditions while without oxygen 0.55% were released as CO2 and 0.28% as CH4 . The calibrated carbon degradation model predicted cumulative CO2 production over a period of 100 years accounting for 15.1% (aerobic) and 1.8% (anaerobic) of initial organic carbon, which is significantly less than recent estimates. The multiyear time series from the incubation experiments helps to more reliably constrain projections of future

  19. Pre-surgery Disability Compensation Predicts Long-Term Disability among Workers with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Spector, June T.; Turner, Judith A.; Fulton-Kehoe, Deborah; Franklin, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Background We sought to identify early risk factors for work disability compensation prior to and after carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) surgery, and to determine whether pre-surgery disability compensation is associated with long-term disability. Methods Washington State workers’ compensation administrative data and data from interviews with workers 18 days (median) after submitting new workers’ compensation claims for CTS were examined. Baseline risk factors for pre-surgery disability compensation and for long-term disability (≥365 days of work disability compensation prior to two years after claim filing) were evaluated for workers who underwent CTS surgery and had at least one day of disability compensation (N=670). Results After adjustment for baseline long-term disability risk factors, workers with pre-surgery disability compensation had over five times the odds of long-term disability. Baseline factors in multiple domains, including job, psychosocial, clinical, and worker pain and function, were associated with both pre-surgery disability compensation and long-term disability. Conclusions Risk factors for work disability prior to and after CTS surgery are similar, and early work disability is a risk factor for long-term CTS-related disability. An integrated approach to CTS-related disability prevention could include identifying and addressing combined risk factors soon after claim filing, more efficient use of conservative treatments and appropriate work modifications to minimize early work loss, and, when indicated, timely surgical intervention. PMID:22392804

  20. Pre-surgery disability compensation predicts long-term disability among workers with carpal tunnel syndrome.

    PubMed

    Spector, June T; Turner, Judith A; Fulton-Kehoe, Deborah; Franklin, Gary

    2012-09-01

    We sought to identify early risk factors for work disability compensation prior to and after carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) surgery, and to determine whether pre-surgery disability compensation is associated with long-term disability. Washington State workers' compensation administrative data and data from interviews with workers 18 days (median) after submitting new workers' compensation claims for CTS were examined. Baseline risk factors for pre-surgery disability compensation and for long-term disability (>365 days of work disability compensation prior to 2 years after claim filing) were evaluated for workers who underwent CTS surgery and had at least 1 day of disability compensation (N = 670). After adjustment for baseline long-term disability risk factors, workers with pre-surgery disability compensation had over five times the odds of long-term disability. Baseline factors in multiple domains, including job, psychosocial, clinical, and worker pain and function, were associated with both pre-surgery disability compensation and long-term disability. Risk factors for work disability prior to and after CTS surgery are similar, and early work disability is a risk factor for long-term CTS-related disability. An integrated approach to CTS-related disability prevention could include identifying and addressing combined risk factors soon after claim filing, more efficient use of conservative treatments and appropriate work modifications to minimize early work loss, and, when indicated, timely surgical intervention. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Predicting the long-term sustainability of evidence-based practices in mental health care: an 8-year longitudinal analysis.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Alison E; Bond, Gary R; Drake, Robert E; McHugo, Gregory J; Jones, Amanda M; Williams, Jessica R

    2014-07-01

    Few studies have examined predictors of long-term sustainability of evidence-based practices in mental health. This study used assessments of five evidence-based practices implemented in 49 sites in eight states at baseline and years 2, 4, and 8. Program characteristics, implementation characteristics, reinforcement activities, and sustainability factors were used to predict program survival status. The majority of predictors were not significant. Supervisor turnover in year 4 predicted survival status in year 8, but site characteristics, fidelity at implementation, quality improvement activities, and post-implementation activities had little impact on long-term program survival. This study extends previous sustainability research by examining the long-term impact of internal program factors over a substantial period of time using longitudinal prediction. Future research should also consider the influence of external factors such as financial policies.

  2. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  3. Early Prediction of Long-Term Response to Cabergoline in Patients with Macroprolactinomas

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Youngki; Ku, Cheol Ryong; Kim, Eui-Hyun; Lee, Eun Jig; Kim, Sun Ho

    2014-01-01

    Background Cabergoline is typically effective for treating prolactinomas; however, some patients display cabergoline resistance, and the early characteristics of these patients remain unclear. We analyzed early indicators predicting long-term response to cabergoline. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 44 patients with macroprolactinomas who received cabergoline as first-line treatment; the patients were followed for a median of 16 months. The influence of various clinical parameters on outcomes was evaluated. Results Forty patients (90.9%) were treated medically and displayed tumor volume reduction (TVR) of 74.7%, a prolactin normalization (NP) rate of 81.8%, and a complete response (CR; TVR >50% with NP, without surgery) rate of 70.5%. Most patients (93.1%) with TVR ≥25% and NP at 3 months eventually achieved CR, whereas only 50% of patients with TVR ≥25% without NP and no patients with TVR <25% achieved CR. TVR at 3 months was strongly correlated with final TVR (R=0.785). Patients with large macroadenomas exhibited a low NP rate at 3 months, but eventually achieved TVR and NP rates similar to those of patients with smaller tumors. Surgery independently reduced the final dose of cabergoline (β=-1.181 mg/week), and two of four patients who underwent surgery were able to discontinue cabergoline. Conclusion Determining cabergoline response using TVR and NP 3 months after treatment is useful for predicting later outcomes. However, further cabergoline administration should be considered for patients with TVR >25% at 3 months without NP, particularly those with huge prolactinomas, because a delayed response may be achieved. As surgery can reduce the cabergoline dose necessary for successful disease control, it should be considered for cabergoline-resistant patients. PMID:25309786

  4. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  5. Predicting long-term denitrification capacity of sandy aquifers from incubation experiments and sediment properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschenbach, W.; Well, R.

    2012-07-01

    Knowledge about the spatial variability of denitrification rates and the lifetime of denitrification in nitrate-contaminated aquifers is crucial to predict the development of groundwater quality. Therefore, regression models were derived to estimate the measured denitrification capacity of incubated aquifer sediments from initial denitrification rates and several sediment parameters, namely total sulphur, total organic carbon, extractable sulfate, extractable dissolved organic carbon, hot water soluble organic carbon and potassium permanganate labile organic carbon. For this purpose, we incubated aquifer material from two sandy Pleistocene aquifers in Northern Germany under anaerobic conditions in the laboratory using the 15N tracer technique. The measured long-term denitrification capacities ranged from 0.18 to 56.2 mg N kg-1 yr-1. The laboratory incubations exhibited high differences between non-sulphidic and sulphidic aquifer material in both aquifers with respect to all investigated sediment parameters. Denitrification rates and the estimated lifetime of denitrification were higher in the sulphidic samples. Denitrification capacity measured during one year of incubation (Dcap) was predictable from sediment variables within a range of uncertainty of 0.5 to 2 (calculated Dcap/measured Dcap) for aquifer material with a Dcap > 20 mg N kg-1 yr-1. Predictions were poor for samples with lower Dcap like samples from the NO3--bearing groundwater zone, which includes the non-sulphidic samples, from the upper part of both aquifers where Dcap is not sufficient to protect groundwater from anthropogenic NO3- input. Calculation of Dcap from initial denitrification rates was only successful for samples from the NO3--bearing zone, whereas a lag-phase of denitrification in samples from deeper zones of NO3- free groundwater caused imprecise predictions. Our results thus show that Dcap of sandy Pleistocene aquifers can be predicted using a combination of short-term incubation and

  6. Contextual exploration previous to an aversive event predicts long-term emotional consequences of severe stress

    PubMed Central

    Girardi, Carlos E. N.; Tiba, Paula A.; Llobet, Gisela B.; Levin, Raquel; Abilio, Vanessa C.; Suchecki, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Traumatic stress can lead to long-term emotional alterations, which may result in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Fear reactions triggered by conditioned cues and exacerbated emotional arousal in face of non-conditioned stimuli are among the most prominent features of PTSD. We hypothesized that long-term emotional alterations seen in PTSD may depend on the strength of context-trauma association. Here, we investigated the contribution of previous contextual exploration to the long-term emotional outcomes of an intense foot shock in rats. We exposed male Wistar rats to a highly stressful event (foot shock, 2 mA, 1 sec) allowing them to explore or not the chamber prior to trauma. We, then, evaluated the long-term effects on emotionality. Fear was assessed by the time spent in freezing behavior either upon re-exposure to trauma context or upon exposure to an unknown environment made potentially more aversive by presentation of an acoustic stimulus. Behaviors on the elevated-plus-maze and acoustic startle response were also assessed. The possibility to explore the environment immediately before the aversive event led to differential long-term emotional effects, including a heightened freezing response to re-exposure to context, blunted exploratory behavior, fear sensitization and exacerbation of the acoustic startle response, in contrast to the minor outcomes of the foot shock with no prior context exploration. The data showed the strong contribution of contextual learning to long-term behavioral effects of traumatic stress. We argue that contextual representation contributes to the robust long-term behavioral alterations seen in this model of traumatic stress. PMID:24106466

  7. Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials.

    PubMed

    Koivisto, Juha; Ovaska, Markus; Miksic, Amandine; Laurson, Lasse; Alava, Mikko J

    2016-08-01

    Materials flow-under creep or constant loads-and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability.

  8. The MITOS system predicts long-term survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Tramacere, Irene; Dalla Bella, Eleonora; Chiò, Adriano; Mora, Gabriele; Filippini, Graziella; Lauria, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    The choice of adequate proxy for long-term survival, the ultimate outcome in randomised clinical trials (RCT) assessing disease-modifying treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), is a key issue. The intrinsic limitations of the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R), including non-linearity, multidimensionality and floor-effect, have emerged and its usefulness argued. The ALS Milano-Torino staging (ALS-MITOS) system was proposed as a novel tool to measure the progression of ALS and overcome these limitations. This study was performed to validate the ALS-MITOS as a 6-month proxy of survival in 200 ALS patients followed up to 18 months. Analyses were performed on data from the recombinant human erythropoietin RCT that failed to demonstrate differences between groups for both primary and secondary outcomes. The ALS-MITOS system is composed of four key domains included in the ALSFRS-R scale (walking/self-care, swallowing, communicating and breathing), each with a threshold reflecting the loss of function in the specific ALSFRS-R subscores. Sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curves of the ALS-MITOS system stages and ALSFRS-R decline at 6 months were calculated and compared with the primary outcome (survival, tracheotomy or >23-hour non-invasive ventilation) at 12 and 18 months Predicted probabilities of the ALS-MITO system at 6 months for any event at 12 and 18 months were computed through logistic regression models. Disease progression from baseline to 6 months as defined by the ALS-MITOS system predicted death, tracheotomy or >23-hour non-invasive ventilation at 12 months with 82% sensitivity (95% CI 71% to 93%, n=37/45) and 63% specificity (95% CI 55% to 71%, n=92/146), and at 18 months with 71% sensitivity (95% CI 61% to 82%, n=50/70) and 68% specificity (95% CI 60% to 77%, n=76/111). The analysis of ALS-MITOS and ALSFRS-R progression at 6-month follow-up showed that the best cut-off to

  9. Computer program for predicting creep behavior of bodies of revolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, R.; Greenbaum, G.

    1971-01-01

    Computer program, CRAB, uses finite-element method to calculate creep behavior and predict steady-state stresses in an arbitrary body of revolution subjected to a time-dependent axisymmetric load. Creep strains follow a time hardening law and a Prandtl-Reuss stress-strain relationship.

  10. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-07-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  11. Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Cynthia R; Kronenberger, William G; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B

    2017-08-16

    We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear implants, implanted at an average age of 3.4 years, completed measures of speech perception, language, and executive functioning an average of 14.4 years postimplantation. Speech perception and language skills measured in the 1st and 2nd years postimplantation and open-set word recognition measured in the 3rd and 4th years postimplantation were obtained from a research database in order to assess predictive relations with long-term outcomes. Speech perception and language skills at 6 and 18 months postimplantation were correlated with long-term outcomes for language, verbal working memory, and parent-reported executive functioning. Open-set word recognition was correlated with early speech perception and language skills and long-term speech perception and language outcomes. Hierarchical regressions showed that early speech perception and language skills at 6 months postimplantation and growth in these skills from 6 to 18 months both accounted for substantial variance in long-term outcomes for language and verbal working memory that was not explained by conventional demographic and hearing factors. Speech perception and language skills measured very early postimplantation, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language, may be clinically relevant markers of long-term language and neurocognitive outcomes in users of cochlear implants. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5216200.

  12. Velocity of tumor spontaneous expansion predicts long-term outcomes for diffuse low-grade gliomas

    PubMed Central

    Pallud, Johan; Blonski, Marie; Mandonnet, Emmanuel; Audureau, Etienne; Fontaine, Denys; Sanai, Nader; Bauchet, Luc; Peruzzi, Philippe; Frénay, Marc; Colin, Philippe; Guillevin, Rémy; Bernier, Valérie; Baron, Marie-Hélène; Guyotat, Jacques; Duffau, Hugues; Taillandier, Luc; Capelle, Laurent

    2013-01-01

    Background Supratentorial diffuse low-grade gliomas present a slow macroscopic tumor growth that can be quantified through the measurement of their velocity of diametric expansion. We assessed whether spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion can predict long-term outcomes as a categorical variable and as a continuous predictor. Methods A total of 407 adult patients with newly diagnosed supratentorial diffuse low-grade gliomas in adults were studied. Results The mean spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion before first-line treatment was 5.8 ± 6.3 mm/year. During the follow-up (mean, 86.5 ± 59.4 months), 209 patients presented a malignant transformation, and 87 died. The malignant progression-free survival and the overall survival were significantly longer in cases of slow velocity of diametric expansion (median, 103 and 249 months, respectively) than in cases of fast velocity of diametric expansion (median, 35 and 91 months, respectively; P < .001). In multivariate analyses, spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion as a categorical variable (<4, ≥4 and <8, ≥8 and <12, ≥12 mm/year) was an independent prognostic factor for malignant progression-free survival (P < .001; hazard ratio, 3.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.67–5.52) and for overall survival (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.62; 95% CI, 2.58–7.97). Velocity of diametric expansion was also an independent prognostic factor for overall survival as a continuous predictor, showing a linear relationship between overall survival and spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion (hazard ratio, 1.09 per one unit increase; 95% CI, 1.06–1.12; P < .001). Conclusions Independent of the molecular status, the spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion allows the identification of rapidly growing diffuse low-grade gliomas (at higher risk of worsened evolution) during the pretherapeutic period and without delaying treatment. PMID:23393207

  13. Near and long-term load prediction using radial basis function networks

    SciTech Connect

    Hancock, M.F.

    1995-12-31

    A number of researchers have investigated the application of multi-layer perceptrons (MLP`s), a variety of neural network, to the problem of short-term load forecasting for electric utilities (e.g., Rahman & Hazin, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, May 1993). {open_quotes}Short-term{close_quotes} in this context typically means {open_quotes}next day{close_quotes}. These forecasts have been based upon previous day actual loads and meteorological factors (e.g., max-min temperature, relative humidity). We describe the application of radial basis function networks (RBF`s) to the {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} (next year) load forecasting problem. The RBF network performs a two-stage classification based upon annual average loads and meteorological data. During stage 1, discrete classification is performed using radius-limited elements. During stage 2, a multi-layer perceptron may be applied. The quantized output is used to correct a prediction template. The stage 1 classifier is trained by maximizing an objective function (the {open_quotes}disambiguity{close_quotes}). The stage 2 MLP`s are trained by standard back-propagation. This work uses 12 months of hourly meteorological data, and the corresponding hourly load data for both commercial and residential feeders. At the current stage of development, the RBF machine can train on 20% of the weather/load data (selected by simple linear sampling), and estimate the hourly load for an entire year (8,760 data points) with 9.1% error (RMS, relative to daily peak load). (By comparison, monthly mean profiles perform at c. 12% error.) The best short-term load forecasters operate in the 2% error range. The current system is an engineering prototype, and development is continuing.

  14. Clinical Score Predicting Long-Term Survival after Repeat Resection for Recurrent Adrenocortical Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Tran, Thuy B; Maithel, Shishir K; Pawlik, Timothy M; Wang, Tracy S; Hatzaras, Ioannis; Phay, John E; Fields, Ryan C; Weber, Sharon M; Sicklick, Jason K; Yopp, Adam C; Duh, Quan-Yang; Solorzano, Carmen C; Votanopoulos, Konstantinos I; Poultsides, George A

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is an aggressive malignancy typically resistant to chemotherapy and radiation. Surgery, even in the setting of locally recurrent or metastatic disease, remains the only potentially curative option. However, the subset of patients who will benefit from repeat resection in this setting remains ill defined. The objective of this study was to propose a prognostic clinical score that facilitates selection of patients for repeat resection of recurrent ACC. STUDY DESIGN Patients who underwent curative-intent repeat resection for recurrent ACC at 1 of 13 academic medical centers participating in the US ACC Study Group were identified. End points included morbidity, mortality, and overall survival. RESULTS Fifty-six patients underwent repeat curative-intent resection for recurrent ACC (representing 21% of 265 patients who underwent resection for primary ACC) from 1997 to 2014. Median age was 52 years. Sites of resected recurrence included locoregional only (54%), lung only (14%), liver only (12%), combined locoregional and lung (4%), combined liver and lung (4%), and other distant sites (12%). Thirty-day morbidity and mortality rates were 40% and 5.4%, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed that the presence of multifocal recurrence, disease-free interval <12 months, and extrapulmonary distant metastases were independent predictors of poor survival. A clinical score consisting of 1-point each for the 3 variables demonstrated good discrimination in predicting survival after repeat resection (5-year: 72% for 0 points, 32% for 1 point, 0% for 2 or 3 points; p = 0.0006, area under the curve = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS Long-term survival after repeat resection for recurrent ACC is feasible when 2 of the following factors are present: solitary tumor, disease-free interval >12 months, and locoregional or pulmonary recurrence. PMID:27618748

  15. Assessing the long-term species composition predicted by PrognAus.

    PubMed

    Huber, Markus O

    2010-01-25

    Tree growth models are supposed to contain stand growth laws as so called "emergent properties" which derive from interactions of individual-tree growth and mortality functions. This study investigates whether the evolving tree species composition in a long term simulation by the distance-independent tree growth model PrognAus matches the species composition of the potential natural vegetation type which is expected to occur if one refrains from further management interventions and major disturbances, climate change, and changes in site conditions can be excluded. For this purpose the development of 6933 sample plots of the Austrian National Forest Inventory was predicted for 2500 years. The resulting species proportions, derived from volume per hectare of 15 tree species or species groups, were used to classify every sample plot according to potential natural forest types, following a classification scheme based on expert knowledge. These simulated potential natural vegetation types were compared with expert reconstructions of the sample plots of the Austrian National Forest Inventory. A total of 5789 plots were actually classified with the scheme; in 33% of the cases the classification on the basis of the PrognAus-simulations was identical with the classification by the Austrian National Forest Inventory. A predominantly correct classification was achieved for the subalpine Picea abies-type and the Fagus sylvatica-type although PrognAus showed a tendency to overestimate the proportion of F. sylvatica and P. abies. Weaknesses in the ability to simulate forest types dominated by Quercus spp., Acer spp., and Pinus sylvestris were identified. This shortcoming might be caused by the mortality model which allows a larger diameter at breast height for F. sylvatica or by the ingrowth model whose terms for the consideration of inter-specific competition may lead to a disadvantage of Quercus spp., P. sylvestris, and Abies alba. Moreover, the ingrowth model might be

  16. SLN melanoma micrometastasis predictivity of nodal status: a long term retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Migliano, Emilia; Bellei, Barbara; Govoni, Flavio Andrea; Paolino, Giovanni; Catricalà, Caterina; Bucher, Stefania; Donati, Pietro

    2013-08-01

    Completion lymph node dissection (CLND) is the gold standard treatment for patients with a positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy. Considering the morbidity associated with CLND it is important to identify histological features of the primary tumor and/or of SLN metastasis that could help to spare from CLND a subset of patients who have a very low risk of non-SLN metastasis. The objective of this study is to identify patients with a very low risk to develop non-SLNs recurrences and to limit unnecessary CLND. A retrospective long-term study of 80 melanoma patients with positive SLN, undergone CLND, was assessed to define the risk of additional metastasis in the regional nodal basin, on the basis of intranodal distribution of metastatic cells, using the micro-morphometric analysis (Starz classification). This study demonstrates that among the demographic and pathologic features of primary melanoma and of SLN only the Starz classification shows prognostic significance for non-SLN status (p<0.0001). This parameter was also significantly associated with disease-free survival rate (p<0.0013). The Starz classification can help to identify, among SLN positive patients, those who can have a real benefit from CLND. From the clinical point of view this easy and reliable method could lead to a significant reduction of unnecessary CLND in association with a substantial decrease in morbidity. The study results indicate that most of S1 subgroup patients might be safely spared from completion lymphatic node dissection. Furthermore, our experience demonstrated that Starz classification of SLN is a safe predictive index for patient stratification and treatment planning.

  17. Parental Predictions and Perceptions Regarding Long-Term Childhood Obesity-Related Health Risks.

    PubMed

    Wright, Davene R; Lozano, Paula; Dawson-Hahn, Elizabeth; Christakis, Dimitri A; Haaland, Wren L; Basu, Anirban

    2016-07-01

    To assess how parents perceive long-term risks for developing obesity-related chronic health conditions. A Web-based nationally representative survey was administered to 502 US parents with a 5- to 12-year-old child. Parents reported whether their child was most likely to be at a healthy weight or overweight, and the probability that their child would develop hypertension, heart disease, depression, or type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Responses of parents of children with overweight and obesity were compared to those of healthy-weight children using multivariate models. The survey had an overall response rate of 39.2%. The mean (SD) unadjusted parent predicted health risks were 15.4% (17.7%), 11.2% (14.7%), 12.5% (16.2%), and 12.1% (16.1%) for hypertension, heart disease, depression, and diabetes, respectively. Despite underperceiving their child's current body mass index class, parents of children with obesity estimate their children to be at greater risk for obesity-related health conditions than parents of healthy-weight children by 5 to 6 percentage points. Having a family history of a chronic disease, higher quality of care, and older parent age were also significant predictors of estimating higher risk probabilities. Despite evidence that parents of children who are overweight may not perceive these children as being overweight, parents unexpectedly estimate greater future risk of weight-related health conditions for these children. Focusing communication about weight on screening for and reducing the risk of weight-related diseases may prove useful in engaging parents and children in weight management. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the long-term species composition predicted by PrognAus

    PubMed Central

    Huber, Markus O.

    2010-01-01

    Tree growth models are supposed to contain stand growth laws as so called “emergent properties” which derive from interactions of individual-tree growth and mortality functions. This study investigates whether the evolving tree species composition in a long term simulation by the distance-independent tree growth model PrognAus matches the species composition of the potential natural vegetation type which is expected to occur if one refrains from further management interventions and major disturbances, climate change, and changes in site conditions can be excluded. For this purpose the development of 6933 sample plots of the Austrian National Forest Inventory was predicted for 2500 years. The resulting species proportions, derived from volume per hectare of 15 tree species or species groups, were used to classify every sample plot according to potential natural forest types, following a classification scheme based on expert knowledge. These simulated potential natural vegetation types were compared with expert reconstructions of the sample plots of the Austrian National Forest Inventory. A total of 5789 plots were actually classified with the scheme; in 33% of the cases the classification on the basis of the PrognAus-simulations was identical with the classification by the Austrian National Forest Inventory. A predominantly correct classification was achieved for the subalpine Picea abies-type and the Fagus sylvatica-type although PrognAus showed a tendency to overestimate the proportion of F. sylvatica and P. abies. Weaknesses in the ability to simulate forest types dominated by Quercus spp., Acer spp., and Pinus sylvestris were identified. This shortcoming might be caused by the mortality model which allows a larger diameter at breast height for F. sylvatica or by the ingrowth model whose terms for the consideration of inter-specific competition may lead to a disadvantage of Quercus spp., P. sylvestris, and Abies alba. Moreover, the ingrowth model might be

  19. Effect of uncertainty of low permeable unit hydraulic parameters on prediction of long term contaminant transport.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lekhov, V.; Pozdniakov, S. P.; Bakshevskaia, V. A.

    2014-12-01

    Characterization of local-scale hydraulic parameters of aquifers with complex internal architecture still is a challenger. For low permeable units the uncertainty of estimated hydraulic conductivity and diffusion coefficient values typically could be an order of magnitude and more. For long term migration prediction the role of low permeable units is very important in overall contaminant subsurface spreading. To quantify the role of uncertainty of parameters of low permeable units on migration processes at the waste injection site we developed using 3-D TP/MC approach series of high-resolution lithological models of injection aquifer that includes about 40% of discontinuous clay hydrofacies. The difference between the models is in the used for simulation characteristic lengths of clay hydrofacies due to uncertainty of experimental variogramms. Using core samples we estimated in lab hydraulic conductivity and diffusion coefficient of clay. Next we simulated with the developed models pure advective and advective-diffusion vertical contaminant transport with estimated in lab and found in previous studies parameters of clay and compared the simulation results. The comparison shows that the role of hydraulic and diffusion parameters of clay hydrofacies strongly depends from its characteristic length, which controls the portion of advective flow through the clay units in overall flow. The difference between advective and advective- diffusion results decreases with decreasing the horizontal characteristic length of clay for broad range of hydraulic and diffusion parameters of clay. Thus developing of realistic model of internal aquifer lithological heterogeneity and analysis with this model future migration is the essential step effecting on the program of site hydraulic characterization.

  20. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples

    PubMed Central

    Baucom, Brian R.; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f0), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f0 were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. PMID:22542535

  1. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  2. Predictive factors for long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion: a multivariate data analysis

    PubMed Central

    Peolsson, Michael

    2007-01-01

    We conducted a prospective randomized study to investigate predictive factors for short- and long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion (ACDF) as measured by current pain intensity on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and by disability using the Neck Disability Index (NDI). Current understanding about how preoperative and short-term outcome data predict long-term outcome is sparse, and there are few studies involving analysis of short-term follow-up using multivariate approaches with quantification of the relative importance of each variable studied. A total of 95 patients were randomly allocated for ACDF with the cervical intervertebral fusion cage or the Cloward procedure. The mean follow-up time was 19 months (range 12–24) for short-term follow-up and 76 months (range 56–94 months) for long-term. Background factors, radiologically detected findings, physiological measurements, treatment type, pain, and disability were used as potential predictors. Multivariate statistical analysis by projection to latent structures was used to investigate predictors of importance for short- and long-term outcome of ACDF. A “preoperative” low disability and pain intensity, non-smoking status, male sex, good hand strength, and an active range of motion (AROM) in the neck were significant predictors for good short- and long-term outcomes. The short-term outcome data were better at predicting long-term outcome than were baseline data. Radiologically detected findings and surgical technique used were mainly insignificant as predictors. We suggest that the inclusion criteria for ACDF should be based on a bio-psycho-social model including NDI. NDI may also be regarded as an important outcome measurement in evaluation of ACDF. PMID:18084782

  3. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  4. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  5. Prediction of long-term properties in polymeric systems: I. Slow crack propagation in poly(vinyl chloride). II. Aging of poly(lactide)/poly(ethylene glycol) blends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yu

    Slow crack growth in PVC pipe was studied in order to develop a methodology for predicting long-term creep fracture from short-term tension-tension fatigue tests. In all cases, the crack propagated continuously through a crack-tip craze. In fatigue, the density of drawn craze fibrils gradually increased with decreased frequency and increased temperature. At the lowest frequency, 0.01 Hz, the fibril density in fatigue approached that in creep. The kinetics of fatigue and creep crack growth followed the conventional Paris law formulations with the same power 2.7, da/dt = AfDK2.7I , da/dt = BK2.7I , respectively. The effects of frequency, temperature and R-ratio (the ratio of minimum to maximum stress intensity factor in the fatigue loading cycle) on the Paris law prefactors were characterized. A linear correlation allowed extrapolation of the creep prefactor ( B) from fatigue data. The extrapolated values were systematically higher than the values measured directly from creep and only converged at Tg. The difference was attributed to damage of the craze fibrils during crack closure upon unloading in the fatigue cycle. Blending poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) with poly(lactide) (PLA) decreases the Tg and improves the mechanical properties. It was demonstrated that a PLA of lower stereoregularity was miscible with up to 30 wt% PEG. Aging was due to slow crystallization of PEG from the homogeneous amorphous blend. Crystallization of PEG depleted the amorphous phase of PEG and gradually increased the Tg until aging essentially ceased when Tg of the amorphous phase reached the aging temperature. Different aging mechanism was found with a crystallizable PLA of higher stereoregularity. The effect of cooling rate on crystallization and subsequent aging of high stereoregular PLA blended PEG was studied by thermal analysis and by direct observation of the solid state structure with atomic force microscopy (AFM). The partially crystallized blend obtained with a cooling rate of 30

  6. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  7. Predicting patterns of long-term adaptation and extinction with population genetics.

    PubMed

    Bertram, J; Gomez, K; Masel, J

    2017-02-01

    Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short-term transition from imminent doom to evolutionary rescue. But extinction can result from failure to adapt not only to catastrophes, but also to a backlog of environmental challenges. We model long-term adaptation to long series of small challenges, where fitter populations reach higher population sizes. The population's long-term fitness dynamic is well approximated by a simple stochastic Markov chain model. Long-term persistence occurs when the rate of adaptation exceeds the rate of environmental deterioration for some genotypes. Long-term persistence times are consistent with typical fossil species persistence times of several million years. Immediately preceding extinction, fitness declines rapidly, appearing as though a catastrophe disrupted a stably established population, even though gradual evolutionary processes are responsible. New populations go through an establishment phase where, despite being demographically viable, their extinction risk is elevated. Should the population survive long enough, extinction risk later becomes constant over time. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  8. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    PubMed

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2016-11-10

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  9. An analysis of precipitation occurrences in Los Alamos, New Mexico, for long-term predictions of waste repository behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Nyhan, J.; Beckman, R.; Bowen, B.

    1989-02-01

    This study describes precipitation as an uncontrolled natural input influencing the hydrology of waste repositories in terms of their ultimate long-term closure. The general climatology of the western states, including that of New Mexico and Los Alamos, is first described. An analysis of the precipitation patterns at Los Alamos is then presented to be used for predicting long-term precipitation occurrences and shallow land burial site behavior. The waste management implications of this precipitation analysis are then discussed and future meteorological research needs are identified. 13 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. Influence of seat geometry and seating posture on NIC(max) long-term AIS 1 neck injury predictability.

    PubMed

    Eriksson, Linda; Kullgren, Anders

    2006-03-01

    Validated injury criteria are essential when developing restraints for AIS 1 neck injuries, which should protect occupants in a variety of crash situations. Such criteria have been proposed and attempts have been made to validate or disprove these. However, no criterion has yet been fully validated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the influence of seat geometry and seating posture on the NIC(max) long-term AIS 1 neck injury predictability by making parameter analyses on reconstructed real-life rear-end crashes with known injury outcomes. Mathematical models of the BioRID II and three car seats were used to reconstruct 79 rear-end crashes involving 110 occupants with known injury outcomes. Correlations between the NIC(max) values and the duration of AIS 1 neck injuries were evaluated for variations in seat geometry and seating posture. Sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were also calculated to evaluate the NIC(max) predictability. Correlations between the NIC(max) values and the duration of AIS 1 neck injuries were found and these relations were used to establish injury risk curves for variations in seat geometry and seating posture. Sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values showed that the NIC(max) predicts long-term AIS 1 neck injuries also for variations in seat geometry and seating postures. The NIC(max) can be used to predict long-term AIS 1 neck injuries.

  11. Alcohol abstinence in patients surviving an episode of alcoholic hepatitis: Prediction and impact on long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Altamirano, José; López-Pelayo, Hugo; Michelena, Javier; Jones, Patricia D; Ortega, Lluisa; Ginès, Pere; Caballería, Juan; Gual, Antoni; Bataller, Ramón; Lligoña, Anna

    2017-06-23

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is the most severe form of alcoholic liver disease. Most studies have focused on short-term prognosis, while factors associated with long-term survival are largely unknown. 1) to determine the impact of complete abstinence from alcohol on long-term survival and 2) to identify prognostic factors at admission capable of predicting abstinence during long-term follow-up in patients with AH. One hundred and forty-two patients with biopsy-proven AH that survived the first episode were included. Demographic, psychiatric and biochemical variables at admission and drinking status during follow-up were obtained. Cox regression, logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART) analyses were used for statistical analysis. Overall mortality was 38% with a median follow-up of 55 months. During follow-up, complete abstinence was reported in 39% and was associated with better long-term survival (HR 0.53; p=0.03). After adjustment for baseline prognostic scoring systems (MELD and ABIC scores), complete abstinence was independently associated with survival (p<0.05). Age and lack of prior alcoholism treatments were independently associated with complete abstinence (p<0.001 and p=0.02, respectively) during follow-up. CART analysis generated a simple and practical algorithm based-on the combination of prior alcoholism treatments and age. Using CART analysis we stratified 2 subgroups of patients with high (65%) and low (26-29%) rates of complete abstinence after an episode of AH. Complete abstinence after an episode of AH positively impacts long-term survival. The combination of 2 variables easily obtained at admission might be useful to predict long-term abstinence after an episode of AH. Strategies aimed at promoting alcohol abstinence in these patients are mandatory. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  12. Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pawar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

  13. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    PubMed

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today.

  15. Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

    PubMed

    Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test.

  16. Predictive capability of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

    1984-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems. Previously announced in STAR as N83-22386

  17. Systematic review: Evidence for Predictive Validity of Remission on Long Term Outcome in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    PubMed Central

    van Tuyl, Lilian HD; Felson, Prof David T; Wells, Prof George; Smolen, Prof Josef; Zhang, Dr Bin; Boers, Prof Maarten

    2010-01-01

    Objective Remission is rapidly becoming a key endpoint in rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials, but its definition is not satisfactory. Although it is generally believed that achieving a state of remission will lead to better structural outcome, this has not been studied systematically. As a part of an undertaking to redefine remission, the current review describes the relationship between remission and long term structural outcome. Methods A systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase.com, and the Cochrane Library intersected three groups of terms: rheumatoid arthritis, remission and long term outcome. The search identified 1138 records, of which 14 were relevant to the research question. Results All the studies included in this review showed a relationship between remission and long term structural damage or disability. Patients that achieved a state remission, defined in various ways, showed less deterioration of function and radiographic progression compared to patients who did not reach a state of remission. Conclusion Patients who achieve a state of remission are less likely to show deterioration of function and radiographic progression compared to patients that do not reach a state of remission. PMID:20191498

  18. Long-Term Prediction of Large Earthquakes: When Does Quasi-Periodic Behavior Occur?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sykes, L. R.

    2003-12-01

    every great earthquake. The 2002 Working Group on large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region followed Ellsworth et al. (1999) in adopting much larger values of CV for several critical fault segments and underestimating their likelihood of rupture in the next 30 years. The Working Group also gives considerable weight to a Poisson model, which is in conflict with both renewal processes involving slow stress accumulation and with values of CV near 0.2. The failure of the Parkfield prediction has greatly influenced views in the U.S. about long-term forecasts. The model of the repeated breaking of a single asperity is incorrect since past Parkfield shocks of about magnitude 6 likely did not rupture the same part of the San Andreas fault.

  19. Incremental validity of neuropsychological evaluations to computed tomography in predicting long-term outcomes after traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Williams, Michael W; Rapport, Lisa J; Hanks, Robin A; Millis, Scott R; Greene, Hillary A

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluated the incremental utility of neuropsychological tests to computed tomography (CT) in predicting long-term outcomes of adults with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants were 288 adults with mild complicated, moderate, and severe TBI. Longitudinal data were evaluated during inpatient status in an urban rehabilitation hospital with a TBI Model System, as well as 1 and 2 years post injury. Predictors including demographic characteristics, injury severity, CT characteristics, and neuropsychological evaluations were regressed to outcomes of disability, life satisfaction, and employment at 1 and 2 years post injury. Prediction of life satisfaction was not improved with the use of CT characteristics or neuropsychological tests, but prediction of return to work was improved by these variables at 2 years post injury. Neuropsychological evaluations uniquely contributed to outcome predictions of functional disability, even after considering demographic and injury severity characteristics, including information from CT. In contrast, CT characteristics were not predictive of long-term functional disability at 1 or 2 years post TBI. Taken together, the findings indicate that neuropsychological tests add unique predictive information for long-term functional outcomes after TBI.

  20. Value of superficial cultures for prediction of catheter-related bloodstream infection in long-term catheters: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Guembe, M; Martín-Rabadán, P; Echenagusia, A; Camúñez, F; Rodríguez-Rosales, G; Simó, G; Echenagusia, M; Bouza, E

    2013-09-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports.

  1. Value of Superficial Cultures for Prediction of Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infection in Long-Term Catheters: a Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín-Rabadán, P.; Echenagusia, A.; Camúñez, F.; Rodríguez-Rosales, G.; Simó, G.; Echenagusia, M.; Bouza, E.

    2013-01-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports. PMID:23850957

  2. A clinically applicable muscular index predicts long-term survival in resectable pancreatic cancer.

    PubMed

    Delitto, Daniel; Judge, Sarah M; George, Thomas J; Sarosi, George A; Thomas, Ryan M; Behrns, Kevin E; Hughes, Steven J; Judge, Andrew R; Trevino, Jose G

    2017-04-01

    The relationship between myopenia, nutritional status, and long-term oncologic outcomes remains poorly characterized in patients with clinically resectable pancreatic cancer. We sought to reliably quantify prognostic indicators of preoperative cachexia in a manner applicable to any clinical setting. Preoperative computed tomographies were available electronically and suitable for analysis in 73 of 82 consecutive patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy between November 2010 and February 2014. The psoas index was computed from the cross-sectional area of the psoas muscles normalized to vertebral body area at the third lumbar vertebra. Correlation and proportional hazards analyses were performed to identify relationships between muscularity, preoperative nutritional markers, clinicopathologic parameters, and long-term survival. The psoas index correlated strongly with preoperative hemoglobin and albumin levels (P = .001 and .014, respectively) identifying a pattern of preoperative frailty. High psoas index and the albumin and hemoglobin levels were associated with improved long-term survival (hazard ratio 0.014, P < .001; hazard ratio 0.43, P < .001; and hazard ratio = 0.80, P = .014); however, on multivariate analysis, the psoas index proved to be the only independent predictor of survival (hazard ratio 0.021; P = .003). Rapid decreases in the psoas index during neoadjuvant chemotherapy were associated with poor postoperative outcomes, as were decreases in the psoas index during the postoperative period. The data indicate that the psoas index, a calculation derived from a clinically mandated, preoperative computed tomography, is a statistically powerful and easily calculated predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer when compared to tumor grade and stage as well as previously validated nutritional parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Phenomenological approach to precise creep life prediction by means of quantitative evaluation of strain rate acceleration in secondary creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Miyano, Takaya

    2010-07-01

    A method of creep life prediction by means of Strain-Acceleration-Parameter (SAP), α, is presented. The authors show that the shape of creep curve can be characterized by SAP that reflects magnitude of strain-rate change in secondary creep. The SAP-values, α are evaluated on magnesium-aluminium solution hardened alloys. Reconstruction of creep curves by combinations of SAP and minimum-creep rates are successfully performed, and the curves reasonably agree with experiments. The advantage of the proposed method is that the required parameters evaluated from individual creep curves are directly connected with the minimum creep rate. The predicted times-to-failure agree well with that obtained by experiments, and possibility of precise life time prediction by SAP is pronounced.

  4. The duration of postoperative acute kidney injury is an additional parameter predicting long-term survival in diabetic veterans

    PubMed Central

    Coca, Steven G.; King, Joseph T.; Rosenthal, Ronnie A.; Perkal, Melissa F.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2011-01-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is primarily defined and staged according to the magnitude of rise in serum creatinine. We sought to determine if another dimension of AKI, duration, adds additional prognostic information above magnitude alone. We prospectively studied 35,302 diabetic patients from 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers undergoing their first non-cardiac surgery between 2000 and 2004. The main outcome was long-term mortality in those that survived the index hospitalization. The exposure, AKI, was stratified by magnitude according to the AKI Network (AKIN) stages (stages 1, 2 and 3), and by duration (short [≤2 days], medium [3-6 days], long [≥ 7 days]). Overall, 17.8% of the patients experienced at least stage 1 AKI or greater after surgery. Both the magnitude and duration of AKI were associated with long-term survival in a dose-dependent manner (p < 0.001 for both). Within each AKIN stage, longer duration of AKI was associated with a graded higher rate of mortality (p < 0.001 for each stratum). However, within each of the categories of AKI duration, the AKIN stage was not associated was mortality. When considered separately in multivariate analyses, both a higher AKIN stage and duration were independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. In conclusion, duration of AKI adds additional information to predict long-term mortality in patients with AKI. PMID:20686452

  5. Can we "predict" long-term outcome for ambulatory transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in patients with chronic pain?

    PubMed

    Köke, Albère J; Smeets, Rob J E M; Perez, Roberto S; Kessels, Alphons; Winkens, Bjorn; van Kleef, Maarten; Patijn, Jacob

    2015-03-01

    Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance. A prospective study was performed to identify variables with potential predictive value for 2 outcome measures on long term (6 months); (1) continuation of TENS, and (2) a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. At baseline, a set of risk factors including pain-related variables, psychological factors, and disability was measured. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, higher patient's expectations, neuropathic pain, no severe pain (< 80 mm visual analogue scale [VAS]) were independently related to long-term continuation of TENS. For the outcome "minimally clinical important pain reduction," the multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that no multisited pain (> 2 pain locations) and intermittent pain were positively and independently associated with a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. The results showed that factors associated with a successful outcome in the long term are dependent on definition of successful outcome. © 2014 World Institute of Pain.

  6. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  7. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals’ social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years. PMID:26735853

  8. Predicting long-term nursing home transfer from MI choice waiver program.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiaoting; Li, Chenxi; Oberst, Kathleen; Given, Charles

    This study aimed to identify characteristics of elderly participants in the Michigan Home and Community-Based Waiver Program that are associated with high risk of long-term nursing home (LT-NH) placement. We identified 8172 waiver clients aged 65 and older during 10/1/2010-9/30/2014. A proportional cause-specific hazards regression model was used to analyze risk factors of waiver elderly for LT-NH placement. Waiver elderly participants who were white (HR (white vs. black): 2.76, with 95% CI (1.91, 4.00); HR (white vs. other races): 1.77, with 95% CI (1.05, 2.97)), had a history of long-term care use (HR: 1.42, 95% CI (1.14, 1.76)), mental disorders (HR: 1.51, 95% CI (1.23, 1.86)), bathing dependency (HR: 1.43, 95% CI (1.07, 1.89)), and finance management dependency (HR: 1.73, 95% CI (1.15, 2.60)) had greater hazards of LT-NH placement. Our study can be useful for policy makers to develop relevant support to reduce LT-NH placement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicting long-term recovery from depression in community settings in Western Europe: evidence from ODIN.

    PubMed

    Dowrick, Christopher; Shiels, C; Page, H; Ayuso-Mateos, J L; Casey, P; Dalgard, O S; Dunn, G; Lehtinen, V; Salmon, P; Whitehead, M

    2011-02-01

    To test the impact of socio-economic and psychological adversity and healthcare on long-term recovery from depression. A community sample of 347 people with depressive disorders was followed up after 9 years. Baseline socio-economic adversity, social support, healthcare use, and psychiatric history were identified. Respondents completed self-report instruments on current depressive status (Beck depression inventory) and longstanding psychosocial adversity (sexual, physical or emotional abuse). Univariate analyses tested for association between recovery and respondent characteristics. Follow-up was achieved for 182 (52%) of the sample, of whom 75 (41%) indicated recovery from depression. Psychological adversity definitely and socio-economic adversity probably were associated with lack of recovery. Baseline healthcare had no apparent impact on outcome. Rurality and support after life events were associated with recovery. History of depression was associated with non-recovery. Psychological adversity is, and socio-economic adversity may be, associated with long-term non-recovery from depression in community settings.

  10. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  11. Predicting return to work. A long-term follow-up study of railroad workers after low back injuries.

    PubMed

    Hunter, S J; Shaha, S; Flint, D; Tracy, D M

    1998-11-01

    Evaluation of the long-term outcomes of 178 railroad employees with low back injury who had completed a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program. To study two major areas: 1) outcomes of the rehabilitation program in terms of the patient's improvement in function and rate of return to work and 2) factors that predict long-term retention at work, both at the railroad and elsewhere. Several studies have been published examining rehabilitation outcomes of individuals covered under workers' compensation law, but few exist that have examined railroad workers covered by the Federal Employers Liability Act, and few studies exist with follow-up periods longer than 3 years. Physical/medical, self-reported, and employment/financial data were collected on each patient from medical and employment records. Follow-up data regarding employment status were obtained either from the employer or from the patient by telephone interview. On average, the patients improved in all objective and subjective measures after rehabilitation. Improvements in these measures were not predictive of return to work. At follow-up examination, 89% of the contacted patients were employed--61% still at the rail-road. The employment factors of lost work days and length of employment and the financial factor of wage rate were the most predictive of long-term work status. The multidisciplinary program in the current study was found to improve patient physical functioning and reduce pain. However, success in these measures was not predictive of long-term work status, suggesting that other factors have an impact on work status. Clinicians must be aware that employment and financial factors may have a strong influence on return-to-work outcomes.

  12. Identifying predictive factors for long-term complications following button battery impactions: A case series and literature review.

    PubMed

    Eliason, Michael J; Melzer, Jonathan M; Winters, Jessica R; Gallagher, Thomas Q

    2016-08-01

    To complement a case series review of button battery impactions managed at our single military tertiary care center with a thorough literature review of laboratory research and clinical cases to develop a protocol to optimize patient care. Specifically, to identify predictive factors of long-term complications which can be used by the pediatric otolaryngologist to guide patient management after button battery impactions. A retrospective review of the Department of Defense's electronic medical record systems was conducted to identify patients with button battery ingestions and then characterize their treatment course. A thorough literature review complemented the lessons learned to identify potentially predictive clinical measures for long-term complications. Eight patients were identified as being treated for button battery impaction in the aerodigestive tract with two sustaining long-term complications. The median age of the patients treated was 33 months old and the median estimated time of impaction in the aerodigestive tract prior to removal was 10.5 h. Time of impaction, anatomic direction of the battery's negative pole, and identifying specific battery parameters were identified as factors that may be employed to predict sequelae. Based on case reviews, advancements in battery manufacturing, and laboratory research, there are distinct clinical factors that should be assessed at the time of initial therapy to guide follow-up management to minimize potential catastrophic sequelae of button battery ingestion. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  13. Early behavioral adherence predicts short and long-term weight loss in the POUNDS LOST study.

    PubMed

    Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Han, Hongmei; Champagne, Catherine M; Allen, Ray; Leblanc, Eric; Ryan, Donna H; Rood, Jennifer; McManus, Katherine; Laranjo, Nancy; Carey, Vincent J; Loria, Catherine M; Bray, George A; Sacks, Frank M

    2010-08-01

    The primary aim of this study was to test the association of early (first 6 months) adherence related to diet, self-monitoring, and attendance with changes in adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors. This study used data from the 24-month POUNDS LOST trial that tested the efficacy of four dietary macronutrient compositions for short-and long-term weight loss. A computer tracking system was used to record data on eight indicator variables related to adherence. Using canonical correlations at the 6 and 24 month measurement periods, early behavioral adherence was associated with changes in percent weight loss and waist circumference at 6 months (R = 0.52) and 24 months (R = 0.37), but was not associated with cardiovascular disease risk factor levels. Early dietary adherence was associated with changes in insulin at 6 months (R = 0.19), but not at 24 months (R = 0.08, ns). Early dietary adherence was not associated with changes in adiposity.

  14. Cognitive and physical capacity process variables predict long-term outcome after treatment of chronic pain.

    PubMed

    Burns, J W; Johnson, B J; Mahoney, N; Devine, J; Pawl, R

    1998-04-01

    Cognitive-behavioral and physical therapies are incorporated into multidisciplinary chronic pain programs because changes in pain cognitions and physical capacity may represent therapeutic processes that facilitate favorable outcome. Decreases in depression, however, may explain treatment responses more parsimoniously. Measures of pain helplessness, lifting capacity, walking endurance, depression, pain severity, and activity level were collected from 94 chronic pain patients at pre- and posttreatment and at 3- to 6-month follow-up evaluations. Decreases in pain helplessness were linked to pain severity reduction, whereas walking endurance increases were related to improvements in activity levels and downtime even after controlling for effects of depression decreases. Thus, cognitive and physical capacity changes that occur through pain treatment may make unique contributions to long-term outcome.

  15. Exome Sequencing and Prediction of Long-Term Kidney Allograft Function

    PubMed Central

    Mesnard, Laurent; Muthukumar, Thangamani; Burbach, Maren; Li, Carol; Shang, Huimin; Dadhania, Darshana; Lee, John R.; Xiang, Jenny; Suberbielle, Caroline; Carmagnat, Maryvonnick; Ouali, Nacera; Rondeau, Eric; Abecassis, Michael M.; Suthanthiran, Manikkam

    2016-01-01

    Current strategies to improve graft outcome following kidney transplantation consider information at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loci. Cell surface antigens, in addition to HLA, may serve as the stimuli as well as the targets for the anti-allograft immune response and influence long-term graft outcomes. We therefore performed exome sequencing of DNA from kidney graft recipients and their living donors and estimated all possible cell surface antigens mismatches for a given donor/recipient pair by computing the number of amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins. We designated this tally as the allogenomics mismatch score (AMS). We examined the association between the AMS and post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using mixed models, considering transplants from three independent cohorts (a total of 53 donor-recipient pairs, 106 exomes, and 239 eGFR measurements). We found that the AMS has a significant effect on eGFR (mixed model, effect size across the entire range of the score: -19.4 [-37.7, -1.1], P = 0.0042, χ2 = 8.1919, d.f. = 1) that is independent of the HLA-A, B, DR matching, donor age, and time post-transplantation. The AMS effect is consistent across the three independent cohorts studied and similar to the strong effect size of donor age. Taken together, these results show that the AMS, a novel tool to quantify amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins in individual donor/recipient pair, is a strong, robust predictor of long-term graft function in kidney transplant recipients. PMID:27684477

  16. Twenty four hour pulse pressure predicts long term recurrence in acute stroke patients

    PubMed Central

    Tsivgoulis, G; Spengos, K; Zakopoulos, N; Manios, E; Xinos, K; Vassilopoulos, D; Vemmos, K

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: The impact of different blood pressure (BP) components during the acute stage of stroke on the risk of recurrent stroke is controversial. The present study aimed to investigate by 24 hour BP monitoring a possible association between acute BP values and long term recurrence. Methods: A total of 339 consecutive patients with first ever acute stroke underwent 24 hour BP monitoring within 24 hours of ictus. Known stroke risk factors and clinical findings on admission were documented. Patients given antihypertensive medication during BP monitoring were excluded. The outcome of interest during the one year follow up was recurrent stroke. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyse association of casual and 24 hour BP recordings with one year recurrence after adjusting for stroke risk factors, baseline clinical characteristics, and secondary prevention therapies. Results: The cumulative one year recurrence rate was 9.2% (95% CI 5.9% to 12.3%). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed age, diabetes mellitus, and 24 hour pulse pressure (PP) as the only significant predictors for stroke recurrence. The relative risk for one year recurrence associated with every 10 mm Hg increase in 24 hour PP was 1.323 (95% CI 1.019 to 1.718, p = 0.036). Higher casual PP levels were significantly related to an increased risk of one year recurrence on univariate analysis, but not in the multivariate Cox regression model. Conclusions: Elevated 24 hour PP levels in patients with acute stroke are independently associated with higher risk of long term recurrence. Further research is required to investigate whether the risk of recurrent stroke can be reduced to a greater extent by decreasing the pulsatile component of BP in patients with acute stroke. PMID:16170077

  17. Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

    2012-11-01

    The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p < 0.0001), methamphetamine use (19.3% vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001), and portal hypertension PAH (16.4% vs 5.1%, p < 0.0001) compared with the development cohort. The C-index of the model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Predicting the outcome of long-term care by clinical and functional indices: the role of nutritional status.

    PubMed

    Donini, L M; De Felice, M R; Savina, C; Coletti, C; Paolini, M; Laviano, A; Scavone, L; Neri, B; Cannella, C

    2011-08-01

    In elderly subjects, past researches have already underlined the role of nutritional status as a basic factor able to influence the prognosis either in acute wards or in rehabilitation and long-term care settings. Aim of the study is that of retrospectively verify, through a multivariate analysis, the factors able to condition mortality in long-term care, paying particular attention to the nutritional status. The survey included 513 patients aged more than 65 years admitted to a long-term care unit during a three years period. Exitus within the first three months of hospitalization was considered the outcome variable, while baseline functional, cognitive, clinical and nutritional status were considered the independent variables eventually related to mortality. The univariate analysis found that some variables were significantly correlated with the outcome: comorbidity, ADL, cognitive status, pressure sores, albumin, transferrin, CRP, mucoprotein, cholesterol, cholinesterase, MAMC and MNA. The predictive value of the block model of the logistic regression analysis was 77.9% (specificity = 85.3%, sensitivity = 63.9%). With the forward stepwise analysis only MNA, cholinesterase, CRP and mucoprotein were considered in the final model. In this case the predictive value of the model was 79.3% (specificity = 84.6%, sensitivity = 69.46%).

  19. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  20. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  1. Creep-rupture behavior of candidate Stirling engine alloys after long-term aging at 760 deg C in low-pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Titran, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    Nine candidate Stirling automotive engine alloys were aged at 760 C for 3500 hr in low pressure hydrogen or argon to determine the resulting effects on mechanical behavior. Candidate heater head tube alloys were CG-27, W545, 12RN72, INCONEL-718, and HS-188 while candidate cast cylinder-regenerator housing alloys were SA-F11, CRM-6D, XF-818, and HS-31. Aging per se is detrimental to the creep rupture and tensile strengths of the iron base alloys. The presence of hydrogen does not significantly contribute to strength degradation. Based percent highway driving cycle; CG-27 has adequate 3500 hr - 870 C creep rupture strength and SA-Fll, CRM-6D, and XF-818 have adequate 3500 hr - 775 C creep rupture strength.

  2. Creep-rupture behavior of candidate Stirling engine alloys after long-term aging at 760/sup 0/C in low-pressure hydrogen

    SciTech Connect

    Titran, R.H.

    1984-05-01

    Nine candidate Stirling automotive engine alloys were aged at 760/sup 0/C for 3500 h in low pressure hydrogen or argon to determine the resulting effects on mechanical behavior. Candidate heater head tube alloys were CG-27, W545, 12RN72, INCONEL-718, and HS-188 while candidate cast cylinder-regenerator housing alloys were SA-F11, CRM-6D, XF-818, and HS-31. Aging per se is detrimental to the creep-rupture and tensile strengths of the iron-base alloys. The presence of hydrogen does not significantly contribute to strength degradation. Based on current MOD 1A Stirling engine design criteria of a 55% urban - 45% highway driving cycle; CG-27 has adequate 3500 h - 87/sup 0/C creep-rupture strength and SA-F11, CRM-6D, and XF-818 have adequate 3500 h - 775/sup 0/C creep-rupture strength.

  3. Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

    1979-01-01

    The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

  4. A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

  5. Change in high-temperature strength properties of 12Kh1MF steel in long-term loading under creep conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shron, R.Z.; Mints, I.I.; Shul`gina, N.G.

    1995-01-01

    Stress-rupture strength tests were made of metal steam pipe (12Kh1MF steel) in various conditions, the original, after aging under laboratory conditions (580{degrees}C, 10,000 h), and after long service. It was shown that the more the steel is hardened by heat treatment or cold plastic working in the original condition, the less it hardens in creep. It was established that softening in creep of steel with a moderate yield strength is caused primarily by aging and with a high yield strength by pore formation.

  6. Predicting the long term durability of concrete engineered barriers in a geological repository for radioactive waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trotignon, L.; Devallois, V.; Peycelon, H.; Tiffreau, C.; Bourbon, X.

    In order to evaluate the long term waste package integrity in a geological repository for radioactive waste, simulations of the geochemical interactions between a concrete engineered barrier and a mudrock were conducted in 1-D geometry and on time periods of up to 10 6 y with the reactive transport code Hytec. Scenarios involving sulfate attack are shown to potentially alter strongly a concrete engineered barrier based on pure Portland based cement. Spatial extension of chemical degradation of the host rock due to high pH fluids is restricted to a radial distance of less than 2 m of the tunnel border in 100 000 y. Results suggest that illite and quartz destabilization rates are key parameters governing the geochemical evolution of the degraded interface. Results also suggest that controls on Mg availability and speciation at the border of the altered concrete are important for a proper understanding of this system. Another key process is the progressive localized cementation of the altered mudrock. Defining a conservative and robust modelling of the effects of cementation is not an easy task, as both porosity opening and closing occurs in this reactive system. Results obtained here suggest that coupling between pH dependence of mineral stability and feedback of mineral precipitation on pH sharpen the cementation front.

  7. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  8. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  9. Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

    DOE PAGES

    Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

    2017-08-16

    With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

  10. Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

    2017-01-01

    With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variability describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. The sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.

  11. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    PubMed

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

  12. Baseline circulating ghrelin does not predict weight regain neither maintenance of weight loss after gastric bypass at long term.

    PubMed

    Pellitero, Silvia; Pérez-Romero, Noelia; Martínez, Eva; Granada, María L; Moreno, Pau; Balibrea, Jose M; Tarascó, Jordi; Lucas, Anna; Puig-Domingo, Manel

    2015-08-01

    Predictors of weight loss (WL) or weight regain (WR) after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) are not established. The aim of this study was to analyze the usefulness of some baseline peptides (leptin, insulin, and ghrelin) as biomarkers of WL and WR in morbid obese patients after RYGBP at long term. Seventy-six morbid obese (47 women, age 41.6 ± 9.6 years, body mass index [BMI] 52.1 ± 8 kg/m(2)) patients were evaluated at baseline and at 1, 2, and 6 years after surgery. Excess body weight loss after 6 years was of 63.9%. Age, BMI, and studied hormones at baseline or their changes over time did not predict long-term excess body weight loss. WR greater than 10% was observed in 36.8% of patients between 2 and 6 years of follow-up, but it was not correlated with BMI, age, or baseline peptide concentrations. Measurement of ghrelin, insulin, and leptin before surgery is not useful as predictors of WL or WR at long term after RYGBP. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Potential role of plasma myeloperoxidase level in predicting long-term outcome of acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Kaya, Mehmet Gungor; Yalcin, Ridvan; Okyay, Kaan; Poyraz, Fatih; Bayraktar, Nilufer; Pasaoglu, Hatice; Boyaci, Bulent; Cengel, Atiye

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the prognostic importance of plasma myeloperoxidase levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at long-term follow-up, and we analyzed the correlations between plasma myeloperoxidase levels and other biochemical values. We evaluated 73 consecutive patients (56 men; mean age, 56 ± 11 yr) diagnosed with acute STEMI and 46 age- and sex-matched healthy control participants. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median myeloperoxidase level (Group 1: plasma myeloperoxidase ≤ 68 ng/mL; and Group 2: plasma myeloperoxidase > 68 ng/mL). Patients were monitored for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which were defined as cardiac death; reinfarction; new hospital admission for angina; heart failure; and revascularization procedures. The mean follow-up period was 25 ± 16 months. Plasma myeloperoxidase levels were higher in STEMI patients than in control participants (82 ± 34 vs 20 ± 12 ng/mL; P = 0.001). Composite MACE occurred in 12 patients with high myeloperoxidase levels (33%) and in 4 patients with low myeloperoxidase levels (11%) (P = 0.02). The incidences of nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction and verified cardiac death were higher in the high-myeloperoxidase group. In multivariate analysis, high plasma myeloperoxidase levels were independent predictors of MACE (odds ratio = 3.843; <95% confidence interval, 1.625-6.563; P = 0.003). High plasma myeloperoxidase levels identify patients with a worse prognosis after acute STEMI at 2-year follow-up. Evaluation of plasma myeloperoxidase levels might be useful in determining patients at high risk of death and MACE who can benefit from further aggressive treatment and closer follow-up.

  14. Potential Role of Plasma Myeloperoxidase Level in Predicting Long-Term Outcome of Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Kaya, Mehmet Gungor; Yalcin, Ridvan; Okyay, Kaan; Poyraz, Fatih; Bayraktar, Nilufer; Pasaoglu, Hatice; Boyaci, Bulent; Cengel, Atiye

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the prognostic importance of plasma myeloperoxidase levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at long-term follow-up, and we analyzed the correlations between plasma myeloperoxidase levels and other biochemical values. We evaluated 73 consecutive patients (56 men; mean age, 56 ±11 yr) diagnosed with acute STEMI and 46 age- and sex-matched healthy control participants. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median myeloperoxidase level (Group 1: plasma myeloperoxidase ≤68 ng/mL; and Group 2: plasma myeloperoxidase >68 ng/mL). Patients were monitored for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which were defined as cardiac death; reinfarction; new hospital admission for angina; heart failure; and revascularization procedures. The mean follow-up period was 25 ± 16 months. Plasma myeloperoxidase levels were higher in STEMI patients than in control participants (82 ± 34 vs 20 ±12 ng/mL; P=0.001). Composite MACE occurred in 12 patients with high myeloperoxidase levels (33%) and in 4 patients with low myeloperoxidase levels (11%) (P=0.02). The incidences of nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction and verified cardiac death were higher in the high-mye-loperoxidase group. In multivariate analysis, high plasma myeloperoxidase levels were independent predictors of MACE (odds ratio = 3.843; <95% confidence interval, 1.625–6.563; P=0.003). High plasma myeloperoxidase levels identify patients with a worse prognosis after acute STEMI at 2-year follow-up. Evaluation of plasma myeloperoxidase levels might be useful in determining patients at high risk of death and MACE who can benefit from further aggressive treatment and closer follow-up. PMID:22949765

  15. Insurance and education predict long-term survival after orthotopic heart transplantation in the United States.

    PubMed

    Allen, Jeremiah G; Weiss, Eric S; Arnaoutakis, George J; Russell, Stuart D; Baumgartner, William A; Shah, Ashish S; Conte, John V

    2012-01-01

    Insurance status and education are known to affect health outcomes. However, their importance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is unknown. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database provides a large cohort of OHT recipients in which to evaluate the effect of insurance and education on survival. UNOS data were retrospectively reviewed to identify adult primary OHT recipients (1997 to 2008). Patients were stratified by insurance at the time of transplantation (private/self-pay, Medicare, Medicaid, and other) and college education. All-cause mortality was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression incorporating 15 variables. Survival was modeled using the Kaplan-Meier method. Insurance for 20,676 patients was distributed as follows: private insurance/self-pay, 12,298 (59.5%); Medicare, 5,227 (25.3%); Medicaid, 2,320 (11.2%); and "other" insurance, 831 (4.0%). Educational levels were recorded for 15,735 patients (76.1% of cohort): 7,738 (49.2%) had a college degree. During 53 ± 41 months of follow-up, 6,125 patients (29.6%) died (6.7 deaths/100 patient-years). Survival differed by insurance and education. Medicare and Medicaid patients had 8.6% and 10.0% lower 10-year survival, respectively, than private/self-pay patients. College-educated patients had 7.0% higher 10-year survival. On multivariable analysis, college education decreased mortality risk by 11%. Medicare and Medicaid increased mortality risk by 18% and 33%, respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Our study examining insurance and education in a large cohort of OHT patients found that long-term mortality after OHT is higher in Medicare/Medicaid patients and in those without a college education. This study points to potential differences in the care of OHT patients based on education and insurance status. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Cerebral performance category at hospital discharge predicts long-term survival of cardiac arrest survivors receiving targeted temperature management*.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Cindy H; Li, Jiaqi; Cinousis, Marisa J; Sheak, Kelsey R; Gaieski, David F; Abella, Benjamin S; Leary, Marion

    2014-12-01

    Despite recent advancements in post-cardiac arrest resuscitation, the optimal measurement of postarrest outcome remains unclear. We hypothesized that Cerebral Performance Category score can predict the long-term outcome of postarrest survivors who received targeted temperature management during their postarrest hospital care. Retrospective chart review. Two academic medical centers from May 2005 to December 2012. The medical records of 2,417 out-of-hospital and in-hospital patients post cardiac arrest were reviewed to identify 140 of 582 survivors who received targeted temperature management. None. The Cerebral Performance Category scores at hospital discharge were determined by three independent abstractors. The 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month survival of these patients was determined by reviewing hospital records and querying the Social Security Death Index and by follow-up telephone calls. The association of unadjusted long-term survival and adjusted survival with Cerebral Performance Category was calculated. Of the 2,417 patients who were identified to have undergone cardiac arrest, 24.1% (582/2,417) were successfully resuscitated, of whom 24.1% (140/582) received postarrest targeted temperature management. Overall, 42.9% of patients (60/140) were discharged with Cerebral Performance Category 1, 27.1% (38/140) with Cerebral Performance Category 2, 18.6% (26/140) with Cerebral Performance Category 3, and 11.4% (16/140) with Cerebral Performance Category 4. Cerebral Performance Category 1 survivors had the highest long-term survival followed by Cerebral Performance Categories 2 and 3, with Cerebral Performance Category 4 having the lowest long-term survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test). We found that Cerebral Performance Category 3 (hazard ratio = 3.62, p < 0.05) and Cerebral Performance Category 4 (hazard ratio = 12.73, p < 0.001) remained associated with worse survival after adjusting for age, gender, race, shockable rhythm, time to targeted temperature management

  17. Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gholamhoseini, Alireza

    2016-03-01

    Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

  18. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    PubMed

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  19. Evaluation of the biotic ligand model to predict long-term toxicity of nickel to Hyalella azteca.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, J E; Borgmann, U; Dixon, D G

    2010-11-01

    Three models were developed and evaluated for their ability to predict long-term bioaccumulation of nickel (Ni) and its toxicity to Hyalella azteca using data from 28-d toxicity tests. One of the models was based on competitive action of Ni with Ca and H (the biotic ligand model; BLM), and the other two models included expressions for the potential noncompetitive action of calcium on the ligand (i.e., acclimation), in addition to, or instead of, its competitive action (not accounted for in the BLM). Each model was able to predict lethal accumulation 50 (accumulation at 50% mortality; LA50s) within a factor of 2 of the corresponding observed LA50. The mean predicted LA50 from all three models was within 13% of the observed mean LA50 of 0.90 µmol/g (dry weight). The median lethal concentrations (LC50s) predicted by the three models were similar and were within a factor of 2 of the observed LC50s for 11 of 13 tests, providing encouragement for further development of a long-term Ni BLM. The similar performance of models based on competitive or noncompetitive action may reflect limitations in the data set or may suggest that effects of calcium on the ligand (L(T)) were insufficient to hamper the functionality of the competitive model or that the LA50/L(T) ratio, rather than the LA50 and L(T), is constant.

  20. Diffusion Tensor Imaging Parameter Obtained during Acute Blunt Cervical Spinal Cord Injury in Predicting Long-Term Outcome.

    PubMed

    Shanmuganathan, Kathirkamanathan; Zhuo, Jaichen; Chen, Hegang H; Aarabi, Bizhan; Adams, Jason; Miller, Catriona; Menakar, Jay; Gullapalli, Rao P; Mirvis, Stuart E

    2017-06-28

    There are no reliable neuroimaging biomarkers to predict long-term outcome after spinal cord injury. This prospective longitudinal study evaluates diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in predicting long-term outcome after cervical spinal cord injury (CSCI). We investigate the admission DTI parameters measured in 30 patients with CSCI, with 16 of them followed up to one year, and 15 volunteers serving as controls. All magnetic resonance imaging examinations were performed within 24 h of injury. The DTI parameters were measured in patients and controls, avoiding areas of hemorrhage in patients and at corresponding upper/middle/lower regions of the spinal cord in controls. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to find relevant parameters (normalized DTI values, age, sex, hemorrhagic contusion [HC or non-HC]) that correlated with two primary outcome measures: patient International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) motor and Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM III) scores at one year. Among all DTI measures, axial diffusivity (AD) most strongly correlated with both motor (r(2) = 0.76, p < 0.01) and SCIM III scores (r(2) = 0.77, p < 0.01) at one year. Further stepwise regression indicated that including AD (p = 0.0001) and presence of HC (p < 0.0001) in the regression model provided the best model fit for one year ISNCSCI (r(2) = 0.93). The AD is a more specific parameter for axonal injury than radial diffusivity; this may indicate that axonal injury in the cord is the main factor affecting patient recovery. Our study demonstrates DTI measurement at the CSCI is a potential neuroimaging biomarker in predicting long-term neurological and functional outcome in blunt CSCI.

  1. Metabolic modelling in a dynamic evolutionary framework predicts adaptive diversification of bacteria in a long-term evolution experiment.

    PubMed

    Großkopf, Tobias; Consuegra, Jessika; Gaffé, Joël; Willison, John C; Lenski, Richard E; Soyer, Orkun S; Schneider, Dominique

    2016-08-20

    Predicting adaptive trajectories is a major goal of evolutionary biology and useful for practical applications. Systems biology has enabled the development of genome-scale metabolic models. However, analysing these models via flux balance analysis (FBA) cannot predict many evolutionary outcomes including adaptive diversification, whereby an ancestral lineage diverges to fill multiple niches. Here we combine in silico evolution with FBA and apply this modelling framework, evoFBA, to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Simulations predicted the adaptive diversification that occurred in one experimental population and generated hypotheses about the mechanisms that promoted coexistence of the diverged lineages. We experimentally tested and, on balance, verified these mechanisms, showing that diversification involved niche construction and character displacement through differential nutrient uptake and altered metabolic regulation. The evoFBA framework represents a promising new way to model biochemical evolution, one that can generate testable predictions about evolutionary and ecosystem-level outcomes.

  2. Thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, and Creep: Part II. Life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neu, R. W.; Sehitoglu, Huseyin

    1989-09-01

    A life prediction model is developed for crack nucleation and early crack growth based on fatigue, environment (oxidation), and creep damage. The model handles different strain-temperature phasings (i.e., in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue, isothermal fatigue, and others, including nonproportional phasings). Fatigue life predictions compare favorably with experiments in 1070 steel for a wide range of test conditions and strain-temperature phasings. An oxide growth (oxide damage) model is based on the repeated microrupture process of oxide observed from microscopic measurements. A creep damage expression, which is stress-based, is coupled with a unified constitutive equation. A set of interrupted tests was performed to provide valuable damage progression information. Tests were performed in air and in helium atmospheres to isolate creep damage from oxidation damage.

  3. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    SciTech Connect

    Wicks, G G

    2001-03-28

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  4. Influence of long-term aging and superimposed creep stress on the microstructure of 2.25cr-1Mo steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gope, N.; Chatterjee, Amit; Mukherjee, T.; Sarma, D. S.

    1993-02-01

    To understand the influence of high-temperature aging and superimposed creep stress on the microstructural variations in a 2.25Cr-1Mo steel, the shoulder and gage portions of the specimens subjected to stress-rupture tests at 540 °C and 580 °C have been studied by transmission electron microscopy. In the normalized and tempered condition, the steel exhibited a tempered bainitic structure and the carbides were present as M3C globules, M2C platelets, and M23C6 rectangular parallelepipeds. Aging the steel at 540 °C for 7022 hours or 17,946 hours resulted in considerable coarsening of M2C and caused precipitation of M6C carbides. The superimposed creep stress enhanced the M2C precipitation. The ferrite matrix exhibited some recovery in the specimens exposed for 17,946 hours. While M2C platelets were observed in a few areas after 14,836 hours of aging at 580 °C, this carbide was virtually nonexistent when a stress of 78 MPa was superimposed. Amounts of M23C6 persisted throughout the tests at both 540 °C and 580 °C. The M6C carbide became more predominant after long exposure at 580 °C. The ferrite matrix recovered considerably in specimens subjected to creep stress at 580 °C for 14,836 hours.

  5. Excess Body Mass Index Loss at 3 Months: A Predictive Factor of Long-Term Result after Sleeve Gastrectomy

    PubMed Central

    Philouze, Guillaume; Voitellier, Eglantine; Lacaze, Laurence; Huet, Emmanuel; Gancel, Antoine; Prévost, Gaëtan

    2017-01-01

    Introduction. Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy (SG) is considered as successful if the percentage of Excess Body Mass Index Loss (% EBMIL) remains constant over 50% with long-term follow-up. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether early % EBMIL was predictive of success after SG. Methods. This retrospective study included patients who had SG with two years of follow-up. Patients had follow-up appointments at 3 (M3), 6, 12, and 24 months (M24). Data as weight and Body Mass Index (BMI) were collected systematically. We estimated the % EBMIL necessary to establish a correlation between M3 and M24 compared to % EBMIL speeds and calculated a limit value of % EBMIL predictive of success. Results. Data at operative time, M3, and M24 were available for 128 patients. Pearson test showed a correlation between % EBMIL at M3 and that at M24 (r = 0.74; p < 0.0001). % EBMIL speed between surgery and M3 (p = 0.0011) was significant but not between M3 and M24. A linear regression analysis proved that % EBMIL over 20.1% at M3 (p < 0.0001) predicted a final % EBMIL over 50%. Conclusions. % EBMIL at M3 after SG is correlated with % EBMIL in the long term. % EBMIL speed was significant in the first 3 months. % EBMIL over 20.1% at M3 leads to the success of SG. PMID:28250984

  6. Group-based trajectory models: a new approach to classifying and predicting long-term medication adherence.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Pakes, Juliana; Sanfélix-Gimeno, Gabriel; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2013-09-01

    Classifying medication adherence is important for efficiently targeting adherence improvement interventions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of a novel method, group-based trajectory models, for classifying patients by their long-term adherence. We identified patients who initiated a statin between June 1, 2006 and May 30, 2007 in prescription claims from CVS Caremark and evaluated adherence over the subsequent 15 months. We compared several adherence summary measures, including proportion of days covered (PDC) and trajectory models with 2-6 groups, with the observed adherence pattern, defined by monthly indicators of full adherence (defined as having ≥24 d covered of 30). We also compared the accuracy of adherence prediction based on patient characteristics when adherence was defined by either a trajectory model or PDC. In 264,789 statin initiators, the 6-group trajectory model summarized long-term adherence best (C=0.938), whereas PDC summarized less well (C=0.881). The accuracy of adherence predictions was similar whether adherence was classified by PDC or by trajectory model. Trajectory models summarized adherence patterns better than traditional approaches and were similarly predicted by covariates. Group-based trajectory models may facilitate targeting of interventions and may be useful to adjust for confounding by health-seeking behavior.

  7. A two-locus genetic interaction between LPHN3 and 11q predicts ADHD severity and long-term outcome

    PubMed Central

    Acosta, M T; Vélez, J I; Bustamante, M L; Balog, J Z; Arcos-Burgos, M; Muenke, M

    2011-01-01

    The severity of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms is a major predictor of long-term ADHD outcome. To investigate if two-locus interactions might predict ADHD severity, we studied a sample of 1341 individuals from families clustering ADHD, using the Vanderbilt Assessment Scale for Parents. Latent class cluster analysis was used to construct symptom profiles and classify ADHD severity. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning ADHD-linked chromosomal regions on chromosomes 4, 5, 10, 11, 12 and 17 were genotyped. SNPs associated with ADHD severity were identified and potential two-locus genetic interactions were tested. We found that SNPs within the LPHN3 gene interact with SNPs spanning the 11q region that contains DRD2 and NCAM1 not only to increase the risk of developing ADHD but also to increase ADHD severity. All these genes are identified to have a major role in shaping both brain development and function. These findings demonstrate that genetic interactions may predict the severity of ADHD, which in turn may predict long-term ADHD outcome. PMID:22832519

  8. Ex Vivo Perfusion Characteristics of Donation After Cardiac Death Kidneys Predict Long-Term Graft Survival.

    PubMed

    Sevinc, M; Stamp, S; Ling, J; Carter, N; Talbot, D; Sheerin, N

    2016-12-01

    Ex vivo perfusion is used in our unit for kidneys donated after cardiac death (DCD). Perfusion flow index (PFI), resistance, and perfusate glutathione S-transferase (GST) can be measured to assess graft viability. We assessed whether measurements taken during perfusion could predict long-term outcome after transplantation. All DCD kidney transplants performed from 2002 to 2014 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were: incomplete data, kidneys not machine perfused, kidneys perfused in continuous mode, and dual transplantation. There were 155 kidney transplantations included in the final analysis. Demographic data, ischemia times, donor hypertension, graft function, survival and machine perfusion parameters after 3 hours were analyzed. Each perfusion parameter was divided into 3 groups as high, medium, and low. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was calculated at 12 months and then yearly after transplantation. There was a significant association between graft survival and PFI and GST (P values, .020 and .022, respectively). PFI was the only independent parameter to predict graft survival. A low PFI during ex vivo hypothermic perfusion is associated with inferior graft survival after DCD kidney transplantation. We propose that PFI is a measure of the health of the graft vasculature and that a low PFI indicates vascular disease and therefore predicts a worse long-term outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Performance of the Autoregressive Method in Long-Term Prediction of Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chae, Jongchul; Kim, Yeon Han

    2017-04-01

    The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

  10. Long-term prediction of fish growth under varying ambient temperature using a multiscale dynamic model

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Feed composition has a large impact on the growth of animals, particularly marine fish. We have developed a quantitative dynamic model that can predict the growth and body composition of marine fish for a given feed composition over a timespan of several months. The model takes into consideration the effects of environmental factors, particularly temperature, on growth, and it incorporates detailed kinetics describing the main metabolic processes (protein, lipid, and central metabolism) known to play major roles in growth and body composition. Results For validation, we compared our model's predictions with the results of several experimental studies. We showed that the model gives reliable predictions of growth, nutrient utilization (including amino acid retention), and body composition over a timespan of several months, longer than most of the previously developed predictive models. Conclusion We demonstrate that, despite the difficulties involved, multiscale models in biology can yield reasonable and useful results. The model predictions are reliable over several timescales and in the presence of strong temperature fluctuations, which are crucial factors for modeling marine organism growth. The model provides important improvements over existing models. PMID:19903354

  11. The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

    PubMed

    MacLeod, Iona M; Hayes, Ben J; Goddard, Michael E

    2014-12-01

    The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as "genomic selection" in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (Ne) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized Ne with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large Ne, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing Ne population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction.

  12. The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

    2017-07-01

    This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  14. Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care.

    PubMed

    Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

    2015-12-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care.

  15. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater.

    PubMed

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb(2+)) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV=ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb(2+), considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+)) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca(2+) for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV=250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  16. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome. © 2016 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  17. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb2 +) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV = ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb2+, considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, and K+) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca2 + for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV = 250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  18. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  19. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  20. Prediction of Long-Term Alcohol Use, Drug Use, and Criminality among Inhalant Users.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBride, Anthony A.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    At 4-year followup on 110 Mexican-American adolescents in a drug abuse prevention program, association with deviant peers was strongly predictive of alcohol and drug use and criminality, whereas parental influences were minor predictors. Low school satisfaction was related to greater drug use, particularly for females. (Author/SV)

  1. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

  2. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  3. Early prediction of long-term upper limb spasticity after stroke

    PubMed Central

    Danielsson, Anna; Alt Murphy, Margit; Persson, Hanna C.; Sunnerhagen, Katharina Stibrant

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To identify predictors and the optimal time point for the early prediction of the presence and severity of spasticity in the upper limb 12 months poststroke. Methods: In total, 117 patients in the Gothenburg area who had experienced a stroke for the first time and with documented arm paresis day 3 poststroke were consecutively included. Assessments were made at admission and at 3 and 10 days, 4 weeks, and 12 months poststroke. Upper limb spasticity in elbow flexion/extension and wrist flexion/extension was assessed with the modified Ashworth Scale (MAS). Any spasticity was regarded as MAS ≥1, and severe spasticity was regarded as MAS ≥2 in any of the muscles. Sensorimotor function, sensation, pain, and joint range of motion in the upper limb were assessed with the Fugl-Meyer assessment scale, and, together with demographic and diagnostic information, were included in both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis models. Seventy-six patients were included in the logistic regression analysis. Results: Sensorimotor function was the most important predictor both for any and severe spasticity 12 months poststroke. In addition, spasticity 4 weeks poststroke was a significant predictor for severe spasticity. The best prediction model for any spasticity was observed 10 days poststroke (85% sensitivity, 90% specificity). The best prediction model for severe spasticity was observed 4 weeks poststroke (91% sensitivity, 92% specificity). Conclusions: Reduced sensorimotor function was the most important predictor both for any and severe spasticity, and spasticity could be predicted with high sensitivity and specificity 10 days poststroke. PMID:26276377

  4. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  5. Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

    2015-11-01

    Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  6. Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain1

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Background: Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. Objective: In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. Design: A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Results: Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Conclusions: Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. PMID:26354535

  7. Creep-rupture behavior of seven iron-base alloys after long term aging at 760 deg in low pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzke, W. R.; Stephens, J. R.

    1980-01-01

    Seven candidate iron-base alloys for heater tube application in the Stirling automotive engine were aged for 3500 hours at 760 C in argon and hydrogen. Aging degraded the tensile and creep-rupture properties. The presence of hydrogen during aging caused additional degradiation of the rupture strength in fine grain alloys. Based on current design criteria for the Mod 1 Stirling engine, N-155 and 19-9DL are considered the only alloys in this study with strengths adequate for heater tube service at 760 C.

  8. Long term prediction of roll phase for an undisturbed spinning spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, M. A.; Dyer, J. W.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the attitude control of the Pioneer 10 spacecraft since the loss of the sun-sensor signal in late 1983. It is necessary to control the attitude of the spin-stablized spacecraft so as to maintain communications with earth. Roll phase is calculated on earth using data from a science instrument on-board Pioneer 10, the imaging-photopolarimeter, which, along with its other functions, was designed to collect images of Jupiter during encounter in 1973. With calculation of instantaneous roll phase performed only once per week, the spacecraft roll angle can be predicted more than a week ahead for timing reorientation impulses. Attitude reorientation maneuvers based on roll phase predictions have been successfully executed for several years on Pioneer 10. Of 10 maneuvers analyzed in this paper, predictions were made for as many as 10 days in the future based on a roll-phase measurements spanning only 12 days of data. The average maneuver was planned by projecting the roll phase for 3 days (22,000 spacecraft revolutions) and resulted in a maneuver execution phase error of only 11 deg.

  9. Socioeconomic position predicts long-term depression trajectory: a 13-year follow-up of the GAZEL cohort study.

    PubMed

    Melchior, M; Chastang, J-F; Head, J; Goldberg, M; Zins, M; Nabi, H; Younès, N

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with low socioeconomic position have high rates of depression; however, it is not clear whether this reflects higher incidence or longer persistence of disorder. Past research focused on high-risk samples, and risk factors of long-term depression in the population are less well known. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that socioeconomic position predicts depression trajectory over 13 years of follow-up in a community sample. We studied 12 650 individuals participating in the French GAZEL study. Depression was assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scale in 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008. These five assessments served to estimate longitudinal depression trajectories (no depression, decreasing depression, intermediate/increasing depression, persistent depression). Socioeconomic position was measured by occupational grade. Covariates included year of birth, marital status, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, negative life events and preexisting psychological and non-psychological health problems. Data were analyzed using multinomial regression, separately in men and women. Overall, participants in intermediate and low occupational grades were significantly more likely than those in high grades to have an unfavorable depression trajectory and to experience persistent depression (age-adjusted ORs: respectively 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.70 and 2.65, 95% CI 2.04-3.45 in men, 2.48, 95% CI 1.36-4.54 and 4.53, 95% CI 2.38-8.63 in women). In multivariate models, the socioeconomic gradient in long-term depression decreased by 21-59% in men and women. Long-term depression trajectories appear to follow a socioeconomic gradient; therefore, efforts aiming to reduce the burden of depression should address the needs of the whole population rather than exclusively focus on high-risk groups.

  10. Conceptual models governing leaching behavior and their long-term predictive capability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Claassen, Hans C.

    1981-01-01

    Six models that may be used to describe the interaction of radioactive waste solids with aqueous solutions are as follows:Simple linear mass transfer;Simple parabolic mass transfer;Parabolic mass transfer with the formation of a diffusion-limiting surface layer at an arbitrary time;Initial parabolic mass transfer followed by linear mass transfer at an arbitrary time;Parabolic (or linear) mass transfer and concomitant surface sorption; andParabolic (or linear) mass transfer and concomitant chemical precipitation.Some of these models lead to either illogical or unrealistic predictions when published data are extrapolated to long times. These predictions result because most data result from short-term experimentation. Probably for longer times, processes will occur that have not been observed in the shorter experiments. This hypothesis has been verified by mass-transfer data from laboratory experiments using natural volcanic glass to predict the composition of groundwater. That such rate-limiting mechanisms do occur is reassuring, although now it is not possible to deduce a single mass-transfer limiting mechanism that could control the solution concentration of all components of all waste forms being investigated. Probably the most reasonable mechanisms are surface sorption and chemical precipitation of the species of interest. Another is limiting of mass transfer by chemical precipitation on the waste form surface of a substance not containing the species of interest, that is, presence of a diffusion-limiting layer. The presence of sorption and chemical precipitation as factors limiting mass transfer has been verified in natural groundwater systems, whereas the diffusion-limiting mechanism has not been verified yet.

  11. An hybrid neuro-wavelet approach for long-term prediction of solar wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Napoli, Christian; Bonanno, Francesco; Capizzi, Giacomo

    2011-06-01

    Nowadays the interest for space weather and solar wind forecasting is increasing to become a main relevance problem especially for telecommunication industry, military, and for scientific research. At present the goal for weather forecasting reach the ultimate high ground of the cosmos where the environment can affect the technological instrumentation. Some interests then rise about the correct prediction of space events, like ionized turbulence in the ionosphere or impacts from the energetic particles in the Van Allen belts, then of the intensity and features of the solar wind and magnetospheric response. The problem of data prediction can be faced using hybrid computation methods so as wavelet decomposition and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Wavelet analysis was used in order to reduce the data redundancies so obtaining representation which can express their intrinsic structure. The main advantage of the wavelet use is the ability to pack the energy of a signal, and in turn the relevant carried informations, in few significant uncoupled coefficients. Neural networks (NNs) are a promising technique to exploit the complexity of non-linear data correlation. To obtain a correct prediction of solar wind an RNN was designed starting on the data series. As reported in literature, because of the temporal memory of the data an Adaptative Amplitude Real Time Recurrent Learning algorithm was used for a full connected RNN with temporal delays. The inputs for the RNN were given by the set of coefficients coming from the biorthogonal wavelet decomposition of the solar wind velocity time series. The experimental data were collected during the NASA mission WIND. It is a spin stabilized spacecraft launched in 1994 in a halo orbit around the L1 point. The data are provided by the SWE, a subsystem of the main craft designed to measure the flux of thermal protons and positive ions.

  12. Cardiac Dysautonomia Predicts Long-Term Survival in Hereditary Transthyretin Amyloidosis After Liver Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Algalarrondo, Vincent; Antonini, Teresa; Théaudin, Marie; Chemla, Denis; Benmalek, Anouar; Lacroix, Catherine; Castaing, Denis; Cauquil, Cécile; Dinanian, Sylvie; Eliahou, Ludivine; Samuel, Didier; Adams, David; Le Guludec, Dominique; Slama, Michel S; Rouzet, François

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to compare techniques evaluating cardiac dysautonomia and predicting the risk of death of patients with hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (mATTR) after liver transplantation (LT). mATTR is a multisystemic disease involving mainly the heart and the peripheral nervous system. LT is the reference treatment, and pre-operative detection of high-risk patients is critical. Cardiovascular dysautonomia is commonly encountered in ATTR and may affect patient outcome, although it is not known yet which technique should be used in the field to evaluate it. In a series of 215 consecutive mATTR patients who underwent LT, cardiac dysautonomia was assessed by a dedicated clinical score, time-domain heart rate variability, (123)-meta-iodobenzylguanidine heart/mediastinum ((123)-MIBG H/M) ratio on scintigraphy, and heart rate response to atropine (HRRA). Patient median age was 43 years, 62% were male and 69% carried the Val30Met mutation. Cardiac dysautonomia was documented by at least 1 technique for all patients but 6 (97%). In univariate analysis, clinical score, (123)-MIBG H/M ratio and HRRA were associated with mortality but not heart rate variability. The (123)-MIBG H/M ratio and HRRA had greater area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic curves than clinical score and heart rate variability (AUC: 0.787, 0.748, 0.656, and 0.523, respectively). Multivariate score models were then built using the following variables: New York Heart Association functional class, interventricular septum thickness, and either (123-)MIBG H/M ratio (SMIBG) or HRRA (Satropine). AUC of SMIBG and Satropine were greater than AUC of univariate models, although nonsignificantly (AUC: 0.798 and 0.799, respectively). Predictive powers of SMIBG, Satropine, and a reference clinical model (AUC: 0.785) were similar. Evaluation of cardiac dysautonomia is a valuable addition for predicting survival of mATTR patients following LT. Among the different techniques that

  13. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on non metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    Predictive modeling of environmental conditions on nonmetallic materials was studied. The in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with carbon and osmium, the laboratory and in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with polymeric films and the effect of electron irradiation on the rates of oxidation are discussed. No information is found that can be used to model such effects on composites. The effects of the space environment on thermal control coatings and its effect on the space station are examined.

  14. Evaluation and prediction of long term space environmental effects on non-metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepic, J. A.

    1980-01-01

    The effects of prolonged spacecraft materials were determined and the results compared with predicted behavior. The adhesion and dielectric properties of poly-thermaleze and therm-amid magnet wire insulation were studied. The tensile properties of Lexan, polyurethane, polyethelyne, lucite, and nylon were studied well as the flexure and tensile characteristic of Adlock 851, a phenolic laminate. The volume resistivity of Cho-seal, a conductive elastomer was also a examined. Tables show the time exposed at thermal vacuum, and the high, low, and average MPA and KSI.

  15. Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism after long-term incarceration.

    PubMed

    Manchak, Sarah M; Skeem, Jennifer Lynne; Douglas, Kevin S

    2008-12-01

    Assessing an inmate's risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

  16. Age of onset of child maltreatment predicts long-term mental health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Kaplow, Julie B; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2007-02-01

    The authors tested the hypothesis that children who are maltreated earlier in life are at greater risk for poor psychological functioning in adulthood than those maltreated later in life. Age of onset of maltreatment was assessed with 3 classifications: (a) continuous (ages 0-11 years); (b) dichotomous (early [ages 0-5 years] vs. later [ages 6-11 years]); and (c) developmental (infancy [ages 0-2 years], preschool [ages 3-5 years], early school age [ages 6-8 years], and school age [ages 9-11 years]). Individuals with documented cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect prior to age 12 (N=496) were followed up and assessed in adulthood. Results indicated that an earlier onset of maltreatment, measured dichotomously and developmentally, predicted more symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood, while controlling for gender, race, current age, and other abuse reports. Later onset of maltreatment, measured continuously or developmentally, was predictive of more behavioral problems in adulthood. Implications for the assessment of maltreated children, the prevention of adult psychopathology, and the classification of age of maltreatment onset are discussed.

  17. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    PubMed

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  18. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  19. Long-term potential nonlinear predictability of El Niño-La Niña events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astudillo, H. F.; Abarca-del-Río, R.; Borotto, F. A.

    2016-08-01

    We show that the monthly recorded history (1866-2014) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be correctly described as a dynamic system supporting a potential nonlinear predictability well beyond the spring barrier. Long-term predictability is strongly connected to a detailed knowledge about the topology of the attractor obtained by embedding the SOI index in a wavelet base state space. By utilizing the state orbits on the attractor, we show that the information contained in the SOI is sufficient to provide nonlinear attractor information, allowing the detection of predictability for longer than a year: 2, 3, and 4 years in advance throughout the record with an acceptable error. This is possible due to the fact that the lower-frequency variability of the SOI presents long-term positive autocorrelation. Thus, by using complementary methods, we confirm that the reconstructed attractor of the low-frequency part (lower than 1/year) of SOI time series cannot be attributed to stochastic influences. Furthermore, we establish its multifractality. As an example of the capabilities of the methodology, we investigate a few specific El Niño (1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998) and La Niña (1973-1973, 1988-1989 and 2010-2011) events. Our results indicate that each of these present several equivalent temporal structures over other eras of these 149 years (1866-2014). Accordingly, none of these cases, including extreme events, presents temporal singularity. We conclude that the methodology's simplicity of implementation and ease of use makes it suitable for studying nonlinear predictability in any area where observations are similar to those describing the ENSO phenomenon.

  20. Long-term potential nonlinear predictability of El Niño-La Niña events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astudillo, H. F.; Abarca-del-Río, R.; Borotto, F. A.

    2017-07-01

    We show that the monthly recorded history (1866-2014) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be correctly described as a dynamic system supporting a potential nonlinear predictability well beyond the spring barrier. Long-term predictability is strongly connected to a detailed knowledge about the topology of the attractor obtained by embedding the SOI index in a wavelet base state space. By utilizing the state orbits on the attractor, we show that the information contained in the SOI is sufficient to provide nonlinear attractor information, allowing the detection of predictability for longer than a year: 2, 3, and 4 years in advance throughout the record with an acceptable error. This is possible due to the fact that the lower-frequency variability of the SOI presents long-term positive autocorrelation. Thus, by using complementary methods, we confirm that the reconstructed attractor of the low-frequency part (lower than 1/year) of SOI time series cannot be attributed to stochastic influences. Furthermore, we establish its multifractality. As an example of the capabilities of the methodology, we investigate a few specific El Niño (1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998) and La Niña (1973-1973, 1988-1989 and 2010-2011) events. Our results indicate that each of these present several equivalent temporal structures over other eras of these 149 years (1866-2014). Accordingly, none of these cases, including extreme events, presents temporal singularity. We conclude that the methodology's simplicity of implementation and ease of use makes it suitable for studying nonlinear predictability in any area where observations are similar to those describing the ENSO phenomenon.

  1. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-04-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  2. Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

    PubMed

    Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

    2016-11-01

    The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P < .0001, confidence interval 4.8-56.4) and diabetes mellitus

  3. High soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 concentrations predict long-term mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Chang, Jia-Feng; Hsu, Shih-Ping; Pai, Mei-Fen; Yang, Ju-Yeh; Chen, Hung-Yuan; Wu, Hon-Yen; Peng, Yu-Sen

    2013-12-01

    Soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1) has a strong association with cardiovascular deaths in patients with coronary artery disease. The aim of this study is to explore the association between sVCAM-1 and cardiovascular mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. Eighty-three clinically stable MHD patients (mean age of 59.4 ± 13.7 years) at a single hospital-based dialysis facility were included. sVCAM-1, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin) were determined at study baseline. The study cohort was divided into higher and lower concentration groups by the median value. The all-cause and cardiovascular mortality of this cohort were followed for 7 years. The mean concentrations of sVCAM-1, sICAM-1, and sE-selectin were 1,393.08 ± 300.96, 230.16 ± 84.86, and 60.01 ± 42.00 ng/mL, respectively. The higher concentration groups of sVCAM-1 and sICAM-1 had higher all-cause mortality by Kaplan-Meier analysis (p = 0.002 and p = 0.030, respectively). Higher sVCAM-1 concentrations had a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.006 p = 0.046, respectively) in Cox proportional hazards model analysis. In MHD patients, higher sVCAM-1 concentrations independently predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This biomarker may be used as a valid surrogate marker for predicting outcomes.

  4. Evolution of long-term land subsidence near Mexico City: Review, field investigations, and predictive simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz-Zamora, Dalia; Ortega-Guerrero, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    Aquitard consolidation in the Chalco Plain is the most recent of a series of major land subsidence problems near Mexico City caused by leaky-aquifer pumping and involving a complex distribution of basalt flows within a lacustrine sequence. This study first conducted a ground magnetic survey combined with lithologic logs to map the extension of basalts. Then it assessed the evolution of ground surface elevations and updated hydraulic heads in the aquifer and aquitard in order to verify the accuracy of previous simulations and develop new predictions on land subsidence employing a one-dimensional, nonlinear, groundwater flow-consolidation model. Results show the presence of shallow basalts that extend from Sierra Santa Catarina into the Chalco Plain, causing a differential consolidation that controls both the distribution of large-scale fractures in the aquitard and the shape of a new lake. Cumulative land subsidence in the center of the Chalco Plain reached 13 m in 2006, thus closely matching previous numerical estimations. Since 1985, the ground surface decline has continued at a rate of ˜0.40 m/yr, while the potentiometric surface decline in the aquifer proceeds at an average rate of ˜1.5 m/yr, indicating that the flow system has not yet reached steady-state conditions. Numerical predictions show that under current pumping rates, where the aquitard is 300 m, total land subsidence will reach ˜19 m by the year 2020; while where the aquitard is 140 m thick, total land subsidence will reach ˜12 m, and increase the risk of flooding and aquitard fracturing for nearby urban centers.

  5. Flexural creep behaviour of jute polypropylene composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandekar, Harichandra; Chaudhari, Vikas

    2016-09-01

    Present study is about the flexural creep behaviour of jute fabric reinforced polypropylene (Jute-PP) composites. The PP sheet and alkali treated jute fabric is stacked alternately and hot pressed in compression molding machine to get Jute-PP composite laminate. The flexural creep study is carried out on dynamic mechanical analyzer. The creep behaviour of the composite is modeled using four-parameter Burgers model. Short-term accelerated creep testing is conducted which is later used to predict long term creep behaviour. The feasibility of the construction of a master curve using the time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle to predict long term creep behavior of unreinforced PP and Jute-PP composite is investigated.

  6. Long-term outcome and prediction models of activities of daily living in Alzheimer disease with cholinesterase inhibitor treatment.

    PubMed

    Wattmo, Carina; Wallin, Åsa K; Londos, Elisabet; Minthon, Lennart

    2011-01-01

    In untreated patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) the functional ability is gradually lost. What happens to the patients after continuous long-term cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment is less investigated. The objective of this study was to describe the longitudinal functional outcome and analyze factors affecting the outcome in ChEI-treated patients. In an open, 3-year, nonrandomized, prospective, multicenter study in a routine clinical setting, 790 patients were treated with either donepezil, rivastigmine, or galantamine. At baseline and every 6 months, they were assessed with several rating scales including Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), Physical Self-Maintenance Scale (PSMS), and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). A faster functional decline was associated with lower cognitive ability at baseline, older age, and the interaction of higher education and longer time in the study. The patients residing with a spouse or relative showed slower deterioration in IADL score. A higher mean dose of ChEI, regardless of drug agent, was also related to slower instrumental ADL decline. Prediction models for longitudinal functional outcome were provided. AD severity at baseline is a key factor in obtaining reliable clinical prognoses of the long-term ADL ability. The dosage of ChEI treatment could possibly lead to a different functional outcome.

  7. Does fall in serum glutathione predict the long-term outcome to concurrent chemoradiation for cervical cancer patients?

    PubMed

    Narasappa, Manjunath Gudibande; Gururajachar, Janaki Manur; Chokkanna, Vasudha Kambam; Somashekar, Mohankumar

    2016-01-01

    Wide variations are seen in clinical practice with respect to response to concurrent chemo radiation among cervical cancer patients. Fall in serum glutathione (GSH) level directly correlates with early response to treatment. Whether this early response translates to a better long term outcome is the subject of this prospective study. Thirty eight women with cervical cancer were treated with concurrent chemo radiation followed by brachytherapy. Serum GSH was measured before and after two fractions of radiation and first chemotherapy. Patients were followed for a median follow up of four years. Fall in GSH was correlated with response at six weeks and disease status at four years. Median fall in serum GSH was 171.16 µg per ml. Fall in GSH was 170.42, 103.54 and 37.25 µg per ml (P value of <0.0001, 0.05 and 0.18) in patients showing complete response, partial response and no response respectively. Among 26 patients who had no disease at six weeks, 22 women remained disease free at four years (P < 0.0001), two recurred (P < 0.05) and two died of other causes respectively. Non bulky tumours and patients more than 50 years of age showed a fall of 190.69, 265.17 µg per ml respectively. Greater fall in serum GSH predicts better early response as well as long term disease control.

  8. Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, Kenneth J.

    2001-01-01

    Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss

  9. From Gaged to Ungaged- Predicting Long-term Environmental Flows, and Ecosystems Responses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, A.; Adams, S. K.; Stein, E. D.; Mazor, R.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Modern management needs, such as water supply, quality, and ecosystem protection place numerous demands on instream flows. Many regions are interested in developing numeric flow criteria as a way of ensuring maintenance of flow patterns that protect biological resources while meeting other demands. Developing flow criteria requires the capacity to generate reliable time series of the daily flow at any stream reach of interest and to relate flow patterns to biological indicators of stream health. Most stream reaches are not gaged, and it is impractical to develop detailed models for all reaches where flow alteration needs to be evaluated. We present a novel mechanistic approach to efficiently predict flows and flow alteration at all ungaged stream locations within a region of interest. We used an "ensemble approach" whereby a series of regionally representative models were developed and calibrated. New sites of interest are assigned to one of the ensemble models based on similarity of catchment properties. For southern California, we selected 43 gaged sites representing the range of geomorphology, and watershed characteristics of streams in the region. For each gaged site, we developed a hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) to predict daily flows for a period representing dry, wet and normal precipitation. The final goal is to relate flow alterations to ecological responses, the models were calibrated to three separate performance metrics that reflect conditions important for instream biological communities- proportion of low flow days, flashiness and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for overall model performance. We cross-validated the models using a "jack-knife" approach. Models were assigned to novel 840 bioassessment sites based on the results of a Random Forest model that identified catchment properties that most affected the runoff patterns. Daily flow data for existing and "reference conditions" was simulated for a 23-year period for current and reference (undeveloped

  10. [Ability of neonatal head circumference to predict long-term neurodevelopmental outcome].

    PubMed

    García-Alix, A; Sáenz-de Pipaón, M; Martínez, M; Salas-Hernández, S; Quero, J

    We review the ability of head circumference (HC) at birth and head growth during the neonatal period to predict neurodevelopmental outcome, putting emphasis on new knowledge in this area. During infancy HC correlates closely with intracranial volume and constitutes an accurate predictor of cerebral volume. Both an abnormal head size at birth and an abnormal head growth during the neonatal period, can express brain damage or the presence of entities that involve varied degrees of neurological dysfunction in childhood. In general, the influence of head size or growth abnormalities on neurodevelopment is more related to the underlying etiology and/or the presence of structural diseases of the brain than with the HC alteration itself. HC evaluation is of particular interest in sick neonates, specially very low birth weight infants, regardless of whether they are normal or small for gestational age, and both during admission an during the first months of life. In these patients, HC catch-up within the first months of life represents a favorable neurodevelopmental prognostic factor. HC measuring and head growth evaluation constitute the most simple, inexpensive and quick available tools to assess the development of the central nervous system and identify neonates at risk of neurodevelopmental disorders.

  11. Microstructure, microchemistry, and prediction of long-term diffusion behavior of chloride in concrete

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karthikeyan, T.; Dasgupta, Arup; Magudapathy, P.; Saroja, S.; Vijayalakshmi, M.; Nair, K. G. M.; Murthy, K. P. N.; Raj, Baldev

    2006-10-01

    Microstructural and microchemical features of two types of concrete are investigated employing electron and ion optical techniques. The first type is the concrete cured in seawater or normal water. The second type is concrete cured in normal water and exposed subsequently to seawater. Major constituent phases of concrete and differences in their distribution due to different curing media are identified. Chloride profiles in different concretes are evaluated using the proton induced x-ray emission technique. Diffusion coefficient D was calculated by modeling the diffusion process and comparing with measured profiles. D, thus estimated, is found to be ˜1.8×10-9 m2/s, which is higher than the reported values of ˜10-11 to 10-13 m2/s. The faster diffusion of chloride in seawater-cured concrete can be attributed to the availability of water medium in wet concrete, in the initial stages of the hydration of cement. The prediction of the concentration profile of chloride in a layer of 100 mm of 28% fly ash containing concrete over concrete exposed to seawater is carried out. For the worst scenario, analytical estimates of the concentration of chloride as a function of time at a distance of 100 mm in the fly ash containing concrete were made. The concentration profiles of chloride expected after 40 years in the fly ash-containing concrete were also estimated using diffusion coefficient values available in the literature.

  12. Early toxicity predicts long-term survival in high-grade glioma

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Y R; Wang, M; Dicker, A P; Andrews, D; Curran, W J; Michalski, J M; Souhami, L; Yung, W-Ka; Mehta, M

    2011-01-01

    Background: Patients with high-grade gliomas are treated with surgery followed by chemoradiation. The risk factors and implications of neurological side effects are not known. Methods: Acute and late ⩾ grade 3 neurological toxicities (NTs) were analysed among 2761 patients from 14 RTOG trials accrued from 1983 to 2003. The association between acute and late toxicity was analysed using a stepwise logistic regression model. The association between the occurrence of acute NT and survival was analysed as an independent variable. Results: There were 2610 analysable patients (86% glioblastoma, 10% anaplastic astrocytoma). All received a systemic agent during radiation (83% chemotherapy, 17% biological agents). Median radiation dose was 60 Gy. There were 182 acute and 83 late NT events. On univariate analysis, older age, poor performance status, aggressive surgery, pre-existing neurological dysfunction, poor mental status and twice-daily radiation were associated with increased acute NT. In a stepwise logistic regression model the occurrence of acute NT was significantly associated with late NT (OR=2.40; 95% CI=1.2–4.8; P=0.014). The occurrence of acute NT predicted poorer overall survival, independent of recursive partitioning analysis class (median 7.8 vs 11.8 months). Interpretation: Acute NT is significantly associated with both late NT and overall survival. PMID:21487410

  13. Survival Outcomes and Predictive Factors for Female Urethral Cancer: Long-term Experience with Korean Patients.

    PubMed

    Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Kwak, Cheol; Kim, Hyeon Hoe; Ku, Ja Hyeon

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate female urethral cancer (UCa) patients treated and followed-up during a time period spanning more than 20 yr at single institution in Korea. We reviewed medical records of 21 consecutive patients diagnosed with female UCa at our institution between 1991 and 2012. After exclusion of two patients due to undefined histology, we examined clinicopathological variables, as well as survival outcomes of 19 patients with female UCa. A Cox proportional hazards ratio model was used to identify significant predictors of prognosis according to variables. The median age at diagnosis was 59 yr, and the median follow-up duration was 87.0 months. The most common initial symptoms were voiding symptoms and blood spotting. The median tumor size was 3.4 cm, and 55% of patients had lesions involving the entire urethra. The most common histologic type was adenocarcinoma, and the second most common type was urothelial carcinoma. Fourteen patients underwent surgery, and 7 of these patients received adjuvant radiation or systemic chemotherapy. Eleven patients experienced tumor recurrence after primary therapy. Patients with high stage disease, advanced T stage (≥T3), and positive lymph nodes had worse survival outcomes compared to their counterparts. Particularly, lymph node positivity and advanced T stage were significant predictive factors for all survival outcomes. Tumor location was the only significant predictor for recurrence-free survival. Although our study included a small number of patients, it conveys valuable information about this rare female urologic malignancy in a Korean population.

  14. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    PubMed

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-05

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change.

  15. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming

    PubMed Central

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Elumeeva, Tatiana G.; Onipchenko, Vladimir G.; Shidakov, Islam I.; Salpagarova, Fatima S.; Khubiev, Anzor B.; Tekeev, Dzhamal K.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year’s shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  16. Serum IL-18 as biomarker in predicting long-term renal outcome among pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematosus patients

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Chao-Yi; Yang, Huang-Yu; Yao, Tsung-Chieh; Liu, Su-Hsun; Huang, Jing-Long

    2016-01-01

    Abstract An urge of biomarker identification is needed to better monitor lupus nephritis (LN) disease activity, guide clinical treatment, and predict patient's long-term outcome. With the proinflammatory effect and its association with inflammasomes, the significance of interleukin-18 (IL-18) among pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematous (pSLE) patient, especially, its importance in predicting long-term renal outcome was investigated. In a pSLE cohort of 96 patients with an average follow-up period of 10.39 ± 3.31 years, clinical data and laboratory workups including serum IL-18 were collected at time of disease onset and 6 months after treatment despite their initial renal status. Through Cox regression analysis, the parameters at baseline and at 6 months posttreatment were carefully analyzed. Average age of all cases was 12.74 ± 3.01 years old and 65 of them underwent renal biopsy at the time of diagnosis. Nine subjects (9.38%) progressed to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and 2 cases (2.08%) died during follow-up. Through multivariate analysis, serum IL-18 level 6 months posttreatment was found to be the most unfavorable factor associating poor clinical outcome despite patient's initial renal status. In addition, the presentation of serum IL-18 in its correlation with SLE global disease activity as well as the presence and severity of LN were all significant (P < 0.001, P = 0.03, and P = 0.02, respectively). The histological classification of LN, however, was not associated with the level of IL-18 among the pSLE patients (P = 0.64). The role of serum IL-18 as biomarker representing global disease activity and status of renal flares among pSLE population was shown for the first time. Additionally, we have identified IL-18 at 6 months posttreatment a novel marker for long-term renal outcome prediction. PMID:27749566

  17. Predictions of Long-Term Radionuclide Transport at Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, D. M.; Parashar, R.; Pohlmann, K. F.; LaBolle, E. M.; Zhang, Y.; Russell, C. E.; Chapman, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    Rainier Mesa, a tuffaceous plateau on the Nevada National Security Site, has been the location of numerous subsurface nuclear tests conducted in a series of tunnel complexes located approximately 400 m below the top of the mesa and 400 m above the regional groundwater flow system. The tunnels were constructed near the middle of an 800 m Tertiary sequence of faulted, low-permeability welded and non-welded bedded, vitric, and zeolitized tuff units. Water levels from wells in the vicinity of both the N- and T-tunnel complexes indicate the presence of two saturated zones. The first saturated zone has an elevation of approximately 1800 m (300 mbgs) and is located 100 m above the T-tunnel complex. Water level measurements during well construction and borehole moisture profiles of matrix saturation suggest this upper zone of saturation extends downward through most of the Tertiary sequence, though data is not available for the lowest Tertiary units. The second saturated zone is located at an elevation of 1300 m (800 mbgs) within a thrust sheet of Paleozoic carbonates and may be hydraulically connected to the Death Valley regional flow system. This study evaluates the potential for downward radionuclide transport associated with six underground tests at the T-tunnel complex over a 1000 year period. A dual-permeability (DKM) model containing spatially discontinuous fault networks within low-permeability tuff units is utilized to simulate complex patterns of variably-saturated flow. A modified random walk particle tracking code for DKM velocity fields is then used to compute radionuclide breakthrough at the regional water table (second saturated zone). Results include calibration of a variably-saturated model to field observations including water discharge history at the tunnel portal, variably-saturated fault fields, water levels in perched intervals and differential saturations in the volcanics and carbonates; and predictions of radionuclide breakthrough at the regional

  18. Dominant Frequency Increase Rate Predicts Transition from Paroxysmal to Long-Term Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Martins, Raphael P.; Kaur, Kuljeet; Hwang, Elliot; Ramirez, Rafael J.; Willis, B. Cicero; Filgueiras-Rama, David; Ennis, Steven R.; Takemoto, Yoshio; Ponce-Balbuena, Daniela; Zarzoso, Manuel; O’Connell, Ryan P.; Musa, Hassan; Guerrero-Serna, Guadalupe; Avula, Uma Mahesh R.; Swartz, Michael F.; Bhushal, Sandesh; Deo, Makarand; Pandit, Sandeep V.; Berenfeld, Omer; Jalife, José

    2014-01-01

    Background Little is known about the mechanisms underlying the transition from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). In an ovine model of long-standing persistent AF (LS-PAF) we tested the hypothesis that the rate of electrical and/or structural remodeling, assessed by dominant frequency (DF) changes, determines the time at which AF becomes persistent. Methods and Results Self-sustained AF was induced by atrial tachypacing. Seven sheep were sacrificed 11.5±2.3 days after the transition to persistent AF and without reversal to sinus rhythm (SR); 7 sheep were sacrificed after 341.3±16.7 days of LS-PAF. Seven sham-operated animals were in SR for 1 year. DF was monitored continuously in each group. RT-PCR, western blotting, patch-clamping and histological analyses were used to determine changes in functional ion channel expression and structural remodeling. Atrial dilatation, mitral valve regurgitation, myocyte hypertrophy, and atrial fibrosis occurred progressively and became statistically significant after the transition to persistent AF, with no evidence for left ventricular dysfunction. DF increased progressively during the paroxysmal-to-persistent AF transition and stabilized when AF became persistent. Importantly, the rate of DF increase (dDF/dt) correlated strongly with the time to persistent AF. Significant action potential duration (APD) abbreviation, secondary to functional ion channel protein expression changes (CaV1.2, NaV1.5 and KV4.2 decrease; Kir2.3 increase), was already present at the transition and persisted for one-year follow up. Conclusions In the sheep model of LS-PAF, the rate of DF increase predicts the time at which AF stabilizes and becomes persistent, reflecting changes in APD and densities of sodium, L-type calcium and inward rectifier currents. PMID:24463369

  19. Early Depressed mood after stroke predicts long-term disability: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study (NOMASS)

    PubMed Central

    Willey, Joshua Z.; Disla, Norbelina; Moon, Yeseon Park; Paik, Myunghee C.; Sacco, Ralph L.; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Elkind, Mitchell SV; Wright, Clinton

    2010-01-01

    Introduction Depression is highly prevalent after stroke, and may influence recovery. We aimed to determine whether depressed mood acutely after stroke predicts subsequent disability and mortality. Methods As part of the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study, a population-based incident stroke case follow-up study performed in a multiethnic urban population, participants were asked about depressed mood within 7–10 days after stroke. Participants were followed every 6 months the first 2 years, and yearly thereafter for 5 years, for death and disability measured by the Barthel Index (BI). We fitted polytomous logistic regression models using canonical link to examine the association between depressed mood after stroke and disability, comparing moderate (BI 60–95) and severe (BI < 60) disability to no disability (BI ≥ 95). Cox-proportional hazards models were created to examine the association between depressed mood and mortality. Results A question about depressed mood within 7–10 days after stroke was asked in 340 of 655 ischemic stroke patients enrolled, and 139 reported that they felt depressed. In multivariate analyses controlling for socio-demographic factors, stroke severity, and medical conditions, depressed mood was associated with a greater odds of severe disability compared to no disability at one (OR 2.91, 95% CI 1.07–7.91) and two years (OR 3.72, 95% CI 1.29–10.71) after stroke. Depressed mood was not associated with all cause mortality or vascular death. Conclusion Depressed mood after stroke is associated with disability but not mortality after stroke. Early screening and intervention for mood disorders after stroke may improve outcomes and requires further research. PMID:20671256

  20. Novelty seeking and introversion do not predict the long-term risk of Parkinson disease

    PubMed Central

    Arabia, G.; Grossardt, B.R.; Colligan, R.C.; Bower, J.H.; Maraganore, D.M.; Ahlskog, J.E.; Geda, Y.E.; Rocca, W.A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: It has been suggested that people who develop Parkinson disease (PD) may have a characteristic premorbid personality. We tested this hypothesis using a large historical cohort study with long follow-up. Methods: We conducted a historical cohort study in the region including the 120-mile radius centered in Rochester, MN. We recruited 7,216 subjects who completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) for research at the Mayo Clinic from 1962 through 1965 and we considered 5 MMPI scales to measure sensation seeking, hypomania, positive emotionality, social introversion, and constraint. A total of 6,822 subjects (94.5% of the baseline sample) were followed over 4 decades either actively (via interview and examination) or passively (via medical records). Results: During follow-up, 227 subjects developed parkinsonism (156 developed PD). The 3 MMPI scales that we selected to measure the extroverted personality construct (sensation seeking, hypomania, and positive emotionality) did not show the expected pattern of higher scores associated with reduced risk of PD. Similarly, the 2 MMPI scales that we selected to measure the introverted personality construct (social introversion and constraint) did not show the expected pattern of higher scores associated with increased risk of PD. However, higher scores for constraint were associated with an increased risk of all types of parkinsonism pooled together (hazard ratio 1.39; 95% CI 1.06–1.84; p = 0.02). Conclusions: We suggest that personality traits related to introversion and extroversion do not predict the risk of PD. GLOSSARY CI = confidence interval; HR = hazard ratio; MMPI = Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory; MSS = MMPI Sensation Seeking Scale; PD = Parkinson disease; PSY-5 = Personality Psychopathology Five Scales. PMID:20660865

  1. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy. Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer. We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups. Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212–1.869, P <0.001), old age, male sex, high body mass index, medical comorbidity, total gastrectomy, and combined resection to be independent predictors of postoperative complications. Among these, only low PNI (OR = 4.279, 95% CI = 1.760–10.404, P = 0.001) and medical comorbidity were independent predictors of postoperative mortality. For long-term outcomes, low PNI was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival, but not recurrence (overall survival: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.221–1.568, P < 0.001; recurrence-free survival: HR = 1.142, 95% CI = 0.985–1.325, P = 0.078). PNI can be used to predict patients at increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although PNI was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival, the index was not associated with cancer recurrence. PMID:27149460

  2. Low ALT blood levels predict long-term all-cause mortality among adults. A historical prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ramaty, E; Maor, E; Peltz-Sinvani, N; Brom, A; Grinfeld, A; Kivity, S; Segev, S; Sidi, Y; Kessler, T; Sela, B A; Segal, G

    2014-12-01

    Increased blood levels of alanine amino transferase (ALT, also known as SGPT; serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase) serve as a marker of liver injury by various mechanisms. Less is known about the clinical implications associated with low-normal ALT levels. Previous studies showed low ALT levels to be associated with poor long-term outcomes among elderlies, serving as a biomarker for increased incidence of frailty and subsequent risk of mortality. However, it has not been determined yet whether low-normal ALT values might be predictive of frailty and mortality in younger, middle-aged adults. We conducted a historical prospective cohort analysis. A total of 23,506 adults with ALT levels within the normal range, at the mean age of 48 ± 11 years, participating in an annual screening program for preventive medicine, were followed-up for a median period of 8.5 years during which 638 died. Low-normal ALT values (serum ALT activity <17IU/L) were found to be predictive for increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.6; 95% CI 1.34-1.92; p<0.001). Statistically significant correlation was demonstrated even after applying a multifactorial model correction for age, gender, eGFR, low albumin, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease. We suggest that low-normal ALT values may serve as an independent predictive marker for increased long-term mortality in middle-aged adults. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Model-based prediction of the acute and long-term safety profile of naproxen in rats

    PubMed Central

    Sahota, Tarjinder; Sanderson, Ian; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose Despite the increasing importance of biomarkers as predictors of drug effects, toxicology protocols continue to rely on the experimental evidence of adverse events (AEs) as a basis for establishing the link between indicators of safety and drug exposure. Furthermore, biomarkers may facilitate the translation of findings from animals to humans. Combined with a model-based approach, biomarker data have the potential to predict long-term effects arising from prolonged drug exposure. Here, we used naproxen as a paradigm to explore the feasibility of a biomarker-guided approach for the prediction of long-term AEs in humans. Experimental Approach An experimental toxicology protocol was set up for evaluating the effects of naproxen in rats, in which four active doses were tested (7.5, 15, 40 and 80 mg·kg−1). In addition to AE monitoring and histology, a few blood samples were also collected for the assessment of drug exposure, TXB2 and PGE2 levels. Non-linear mixed effects modelling was used to analyse the data and identify covariate factors on the incidence and severity of AEs. Key Results Modelling results showed that besides drug exposure, maximum PGE2 inhibition and treatment duration were also predictors of gastrointestinal ulceration. Although PGE2 levels were clearly linked to the incidence rates, it appeared that ulceration severity is better predicted by measures of drug exposure. Conclusions and Implications These results show that the use of a model-based approach provides the opportunity to integrate pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and toxicity data, enabling optimization of the design, analysis and interpretation of toxicology experiments. PMID:25884765

  4. Analysis of long-term land subsidence near Mexico City: Field investigations and predictive modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortega-Guerrero, Adrian; Rudolph, David L.; Cherry, John A.

    1999-11-01

    The Mexico City region has several flat plains formed on exceptionally porous (60-90%) lacustrine deposits overlying a highly productive regional aquifer. Severe land subsidence due to consolidation of the lacustrine aquitard caused by aquifer exploitation has resulted in restrictions on pumping in the core of Mexico City. This has led to large increases in aquifer pumping in the outlying lacustrine plains where satellite communities are rapidly expanding. The Chalco Basin is one of these lacustrine areas where pumping began in the 1950s and greatly increased in the 1980s. The lacustrine sequence in the Chalco area is significantly thicker than anywhere else in the Basin of Mexico averaging 100 m and reaching a maximum thickness of 300 m. Consequently, this area is susceptible to the highest potential land subsidence effects as a result of groundwater extraction of anywhere in the basin. Land subsidence in the central part of the Chalco Basin has increased to 0.4 m/yr since 1984 and by 1991 total subsidence had reached 8 m. The rapid land subsidence in this area is causing the accumulation of meteoric waters during the rainy season resulting in extensive flooding of farmland. This study first demonstrates a methodology for combining hydraulic data from a network of monitoring wells, geotechnical data from core samples, and a compilation of historical information on land surface elevation to quantify groundwater flow and land subsidence phenomena within the rapidly subsiding Chalco Basin. Then a one-dimensional mathematical model is employed to develop predictions of future land subsidence under a range of pumping conditions. The model permits the hydraulic properties of the aquitard to vary as transient functions of hydraulic head and porosity. Simulations suggest that under current pumping rates, total land subsidence in the area of thickest lacustrine sediment will reach 15 m by the year 2010. If pumping is reduced to the extent that further decline in the

  5. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  6. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    PubMed

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

  7. Cross-regional prediction of long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Buttle, Jim; Carey, Sean K.; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Shanley, Jamie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2012-09-01

    There is no scientific consensus about how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters is regulated. Here we combine recent literature data from 49 catchments with detailed stream and catchment process information from nine well established research catchments at mid- to high latitudes to examine the question of how climate controls stream water DOC. We show for the first time that mean annual temperature (MAT) in the range from -3° to +10° C has a strong control over the regional stream water DOC concentration in catchments, with highest concentrations in areas ranging between 0° and +3° C MAT. Although relatively large deviations from this model occur for individual streams, catchment topography appears to explain much of this divergence. These findings suggest that the long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change may be more predictable than previously thought.

  8. Five questions predicted long-term, severe, back-related functional limitations: evidence from three large prospective studies.

    PubMed

    Dionne, Clermont E; Le Sage, Natalie; Franche, Renée-Louise; Dorval, Michel; Bombardier, Claire; Deyo, Richard A

    2011-01-01

    The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) to investigate whether the predictive validity of a previously developed back pain prediction rule could be improved; (2) to determine if the rule can be shortened without loss of predictive validity; (3) to compare the rule with the physician's judgment; (4) to assess, in a different population, its 2-year predictive validity; and (5) to evaluate the clinical applicability of the rule in a first-line care setting. One thousand two hundred and sixty-two participants were enrolled in the study (participation: 91%) before a medical consultation for nonspecific back pain in a large emergency room and were followed up for 2 years (follow-up: 92.5%). The effects of adding new items and deleting any one of the original items were evaluated. The predictions by the rule and the physicians were compared with the 2-year actual functional limitations (measured with the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire). Although the final prediction rule included only five items (feeling everything is an effort, trouble getting breath, hot/cold spells, numbness/tingling in parts of body, and pain in heart/chest), its predictive validity was greater than that of the original 17-item version and was superior to the physician's prediction. The rule was easily applied. A five-item clinical prediction rule of long-term back-related functional limitations could help first-line care physicians to concentrate the clinical attention on patients at higher risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Physical activity and exercise performance predict long-term prognosis in middle-aged women surviving acute coronary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Al-Khalili, F; Janszky, I; Andersson, A; Svane, B; Schenck-Gustafsson, K

    2007-02-01

    To evaluate the importance of exercise testing (ET) parameters and leisure time physical activity in predicting long-term prognosis in middle-aged women hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Women aged <66 years recently hospitalized for ACS in the Greater Stockholm area in Sweden were recruited. All underwent baseline clinical examinations including ET and then were followed up for 9 years. Nonparticipation in ET had a hazard ratio of 4.26 (95% confidence interval 2.02-8.95) for total mortality and 3.03 (1.03-8.91) for cardiovascular mortality. All ET parameters were significantly different between survivors than nonsurvivors, except for chest pain and ST-segment depression during ET. Sedentary lifestyle and ET parameters were related to total mortality and cardiovascular mortality in a multivariate analysis adjusting for potential confounders. Predictors of total mortality were sedentary lifestyle 2.94 (1.31-6.62), exercise time 1.75 (1.07-2.87) and inadequate haemodynamic responses: low increase in pulse rate 2.04 (1.16-3.60) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) 1.88 (1.19-2.95) from rest to peak exercise. Parameters that predicted cardiovascular mortality were sedentary lifestyle 3.15 (1.13-8.74) and poor increase in SBP 2.76 (1.30-5.86) from rest to peak exercise. The relation of sedentary lifestyle to survival was substantially weakened when exercise parameters were added to the multivariate analysis model. In female patients <66 years surviving ACS, important independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality were sedentary lifestyle, low physical fitness and inadequate pulse rate and SBP increase during exercise. Predictors of cardiovascular mortality were sedentary lifestyle and inadequate blood pressure response during exercise.

  10. D-dimer for prediction of long-term outcome in cryptogenic stroke patients with patent foramen ovale.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Dae; Song, Dongbeom; Nam, Hyo Suk; Lee, Kijeong; Yoo, Joonsang; Hong, Geu-Ru; Lee, Hye Sun; Nam, Chung Mo; Heo, Ji Hoe

    2015-08-31

    Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a potential cause of cryptogenic stroke, given the possibility of paradoxical embolism from venous to systemic circulation. D-dimer level is used to screen venous thrombosis. We investigated the risk of embolism and mortality according to the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke patients. A total of 570 first-ever cryptogenic stroke patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography were included in this study. D-dimer was assessed using latex agglutination assay during admission. The association of long-term outcomes with the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels was investigated. PFO was detected in 241 patients (42.3 %). During a mean 34.0 ± 22.8 months of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 58 (10.2 %) patients, ischaemic stroke in 33 (5.8 %), and pulmonary thromboembolism in 6 (1.1 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was an independent predictor for recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with PFO (hazard ratio 5.341, 95 % confidence interval 1.648-17.309, p=0.005), but not in those without PFO. However, in patients without PFO, a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was independently related with all-cause mortality. The risk of pulmonary thromboembolism tended to be high in patients with high D-dimer levels, regardless of PFO. Elevated D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke were predictive of the long-term outcome, which differed according to the presence of PFO. The coexistence of PFO and a high D-dimer level increased the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke. The D-dimer test in cryptogenic stroke patients may be useful for predicting outcomes and deciding treatment strategy.

  11. Long-Term Predictive and Feedback Encoding of Motor Signals in the Simple Spike Discharge of Purkinje Cells

    PubMed Central

    Popa, Laurentiu S.; Streng, Martha L.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Most hypotheses of cerebellar function emphasize a role in real-time control of movements. However, the cerebellum’s use of current information to adjust future movements and its involvement in sequencing, working memory, and attention argues for predicting and maintaining information over extended time windows. The present study examines the time course of Purkinje cell discharge modulation in the monkey (Macaca mulatta) during manual, pseudo-random tracking. Analysis of the simple spike firing from 183 Purkinje cells during tracking reveals modulation up to 2 s before and after kinematics and position error. Modulation significance was assessed against trial shuffled firing, which decoupled simple spike activity from behavior and abolished long-range encoding while preserving data statistics. Position, velocity, and position errors have the most frequent and strongest long-range feedforward and feedback modulations, with less common, weaker long-term correlations for speed and radial error. Position, velocity, and position errors can be decoded from the population simple spike firing with considerable accuracy for even the longest predictive (-2000 to -1500 ms) and feedback (1500 to 2000 ms) epochs. Separate analysis of the simple spike firing in the initial hold period preceding tracking shows similar long-range feedforward encoding of the upcoming movement and in the final hold period feedback encoding of the just completed movement, respectively. Complex spike analysis reveals little long-term modulation with behavior. We conclude that Purkinje cell simple spike discharge includes short- and long-range representations of both upcoming and preceding behavior that could underlie cerebellar involvement in error correction, working memory, and sequencing. PMID:28413823

  12. Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

    PubMed Central

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

  13. Serotonin differentially regulates short- and long-term prediction of rewards in the ventral and dorsal striatum.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Saori C; Schweighofer, Nicolas; Asahi, Shuji; Shishida, Kazuhiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

    2007-12-19

    The ability to select an action by considering both delays and amount of reward outcome is critical for maximizing long-term benefits. Although previous animal experiments on impulsivity have suggested a role of serotonin in behaviors requiring prediction of delayed rewards, the underlying neural mechanism is unclear. To elucidate the role of serotonin in the evaluation of delayed rewards, we performed a functional brain imaging experiment in which subjects chose small-immediate or large-delayed liquid rewards under dietary regulation of tryptophan, a precursor of serotonin. A model-based analysis revealed that the activity of the ventral part of the striatum was correlated with reward prediction at shorter time scales, and this correlated activity was stronger at low serotonin levels. By contrast, the activity of the dorsal part of the striatum was correlated with reward prediction at longer time scales, and this correlated activity was stronger at high serotonin levels. Our results suggest that serotonin controls the time scale of reward prediction by differentially regulating activities within the striatum.

  14. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    PubMed

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

    PubMed

    Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

    2015-03-17

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

  16. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  17. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction, and implementation. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1997-09-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used to treat volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make biofilters ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity and the ability to regenerate biofilter activity. As part of this effort, the authors will provide a deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and will extend this engineering approach and developed mathematical models to two additional systems of high-priority environmental management (EM) relevance-direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and TCE (trichioroethylene), respectively. Preliminary results indicate that the author can control overgrowth of the biofilm while sustaining high degradation rates and develop basic predictive models that elucidate mass transfer and kinetic limitations in this system for alkanes. The alkanes are degraded into CO, and waterwith minimal biomass (due to the methodology proposed). This system will be used to test and model additional supplemental nutrient feeding strategies as well as methods to increase the fundamental driving forces by modification of the system. Models will be extended to non-steady-state, long-term operation. The author will examine the nature of the mixed microbial community in the VOC-degrading biofilm and test for new degradative activities. He will use cosolvents with surfactant properties to enhance hydrocarbon solubility in the biofilm and evaluate their impact on mass transfer and reaction rate in an

  18. Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

    PubMed Central

    Mendivil, Joan; Andreu, Montserrat; Hernández, Cristina; Castells, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50–69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010–2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies. Results An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity. Conclusions Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies. PMID:27732635

  19. SNPs in PTGS2 and LTA Predict Pain and Quality of Life in Long Term Lung Cancer Survivors

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Sarah M.; Gonzalez, Brian D.; Clark, Matthew M.; Patten, Christi; Felten, Sara; Liu, Heshan; Li, Yafei; Sloan, Jeff; Yang, Ping

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE Lung cancer survivors report the lowest quality of life relative to other cancer survivors. Pain is one of the most devastating, persistent, and incapacitating symptoms for lung cancer survivors. Prevalence rates vary with 80–100% of survivors experiencing cancer pain and healthcare costs are five times higher in cancer survivors with uncontrolled pain. Cancer pain often has a considerable impact on quality of life among cancer patients and cancer survivors. Therefore, early identification, and treatment is important. Although recent studies have suggested a relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in several cytokine and inflammation genes with cancer prognosis, associations with cancer pain are not clear. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to identify SNPs related to pain in long term lung cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODS Participants were enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Lung Cancer Cohort upon diagnosis of their lung cancer. 1149 Caucasian lung cancer survivors, (440 surviving < 3 years; 354 surviving 3–5 years; and 355 surviving> 5 years) completed study questionnaires and had genetic samples available. Ten SNPS from PTGS2 and LTA genes were selected based on the serum literature. Outcomes included pain, and quality of life as measured by the SF-8. RESULTS Of the 10 SNPs evaluated in LTA and PTGS2 genes, 3 were associated with pain severity (rs5277; rs1799964), social function (rs5277) and mental health (rs5275). These results suggested both specificity and consistency of these inflammatory gene SNPs in predicting pain severity in long term lung cancer survivors. CONCLUSION These results provide support for genetic predisposition to pain severity and may aid in identification of lung cancer survivors at high risk for morbidity and poor QOL. PMID:22464751

  20. Long-term prognosis of low-frequency hearing loss and predictive factors for the 10-year outcome.

    PubMed

    Oishi, Naoki; Inoue, Yasuhiro; Saito, Hideyuki; Kanzaki, Sho; Kanzaki, Jin; Ogawa, Kaoru

    2010-04-01

    To determine the long-term prognosis of low-frequency hearing loss and predictive factors for the 10-year outcome of low-frequency hearing loss. Case series with chart review. Tertiary referral center. From 1979 to 1998, 466 consecutive patients with low-frequency hearing loss received initial treatment at the Hearing and Tinnitus Clinic of Keio University Hospital. Of the 49 eligible patients, pure-tone threshold data obtained over a period of 10 years after onset of low-frequency hearing loss were available for analysis. To determine the progression of hearing loss, we analyzed audiometric pattern changes. We also examined how the following factors affected 10-year prognosis: sex, age, side of hearing loss, accompanying dizziness, pre-therapeutic hearing thresholds at low frequencies, initial therapy results, and fluctuation of hearing during the first year after onset. High- and pan-frequency hearing loss increased as time progressed. About half of the cases developed high- or pan-frequency hearing loss within 10 years of onset. Audiometric patterns measured at 10 years significantly correlated with those measured at one (r = 0.57), three (r = 0.73), and five years (r = 0.85). The 10-year prognosis significantly correlated with only two factors: initial therapy results (r = 0.49) and fluctuation of hearing during the first year (r = 0.43). About half of the cases in our study developed high- or pan-frequency hearing loss within 10 years of onset of low-frequency hearing loss. The initial therapy results and fluctuation of hearing during the first year may indicate the long-term prognosis of patients presenting with low-frequency hearing loss. Copyright 2010 American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting plant uptake and toxicity of lead (Pb) in long-term contaminated soils from derived transfer functions.

    PubMed

    Kader, Mohammed; Lamb, Dane T; Mahbub, Khandaker Rayhan; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2016-08-01

    Regulatory assessment of lead (Pb) in contaminated soils is still expressed primarily as total Pb concentrations in soil. In this study, we estimated effective concentrations (ECx) of Pb to Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber) focusing primarily on pore-water Pb data from 10 different soils after 12 weeks ageing. Phytotoxicity expressed in terms of Pb(2+) was observed to occur in the nanomolar range in neutral to alkaline soils (EC50 values 90 to 853 nM) and micromolar levels for acidic soils (EC50 values 7.35 to 9.66 μM). Internal Pb concentrations relating to toxicity (PT50) in roots and shoots also decreased with increasing pore-water pH (R (2) = 0.52 to 0.53). From a series of dose-response studies, we developed transfer functions predicting Pb uptake in C. sativa and we validated these functions with long-term Pb contaminated soils. The significant independent parameters were pore-water Pb(2+) and dissolved Pb plus dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The observed RMSE for the Pb-DOC model and Pb(2+) were 2.6 and 8.8, respectively. The Pb-DOC model tended to under-predict Pb, whilst Pb(2+) tended to over-predict accumulation despite reasonable RMSE values. Further validation is needed in soils with higher pore-water Pb solubility.

  2. Synovectomy of the elbow and radial head excision in rheumatoid arthritis. Predictive factors and long-term outcome.

    PubMed

    Gendi, N S; Axon, J M; Carr, A J; Pile, K D; Burge, P D; Mowat, A G

    1997-11-01

    We carried out a survival analysis of elbow synovectomy (ES) and excision of the radial head (RHE) performed on 171 rheumatoid elbows. The failure criteria were revision surgery (performed or desired) and/or the presence of significant or severe pain. The cumulative survival was 81% at one year which thereafter decreased by an average of 2.6% per year. The strongest predictor for success was a low preoperative range of supination-pronation when corresponding survival curves were compared. A low range of flexion-extension also predicted failure. Combining both factors gave better prediction (failure: 6.3% v 67%), but a long duration of elbow symptoms before surgery predicted failure (72%, p = 0.04). At review, there was a mean gain of 50 degrees in supination-pronation and 11 degrees in flexion-extension; both correlated with success. Failure correlated with recurrence of synovitis, elbow instability, ulnar neuropathy, poor general mobility and poor upper-limb function. The last was independently affected by the severity of RA in the ipsilateral shoulder. Our findings show that although the short-term result of ES and RHE in rheumatoid arthritis is good, the long-term outcome is poor except in a subgroup with more than 50% limitation of forearm rotation.

  3. Mortality Risk Prediction by an Insurance Company and Long-Term Follow-Up of 62,000 Men

    PubMed Central

    Sijbrands, Eric J. G.; Tornij, Erik; Homsma, Sietske J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the predicted with the observed mortality of men who applied for life insurance, and determined the prognostic value of the risk assessment. Methods Long-term follow-up was available for 62,334 male applicants whose mortality risk was predicted with medical evaluation and they were assigned to five groups with increasing risk from 1 to 5. We calculated all cause standardized mortality ratios relative to the Dutch population and compared groups with Cox's regression. We compared the discriminative ability of risk assessments as indicated by a concordance index (c). Results In 844,815 person years we observed 3,433 deaths. The standardized mortality relative to the Dutch male population was 0.76 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.78). The standardized mortality ratios ranged from 0.54 in risk group 1 to 2.37 in group 5. A large number of risk factors and diseases were significantly associated with increased mortality. The algorithm of prediction was significantly, but only slightly better than summation of the number of disorders and risk factors (c-index, 0.64 versus 0.60, P<0.001). Conclusions Men applying for insurance clearly had better survival relative to the general population. Readily available medical evaluation enabled accurate prediction of the mortality risk of large groups, but the deceased men could not have been identified with the applied prediction method. PMID:19421319

  4. Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2013-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

  5. Predictive and concurrent validity of the Braden scale in long-term care: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Wilchesky, Machelle; Lungu, Ovidiu

    2015-01-01

    Pressure ulcer prevention is an important long-term care (LTC) quality indicator. While the Braden Scale is a recommended risk assessment tool, there is a paucity of information specifically pertaining to its validity within the LTC setting. We, therefore, undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing Braden Scale predictive and concurrent validity within this context. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PsychINFO and PubMed databases from 1985-2014 for studies containing the requisite information to analyze tool validity. Our initial search yielded 3,773 articles. Eleven datasets emanating from nine published studies describing 40,361 residents met all meta-analysis inclusion criteria and were analyzed using random effects models. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values were 86%, 38%, 28%, and 93%, respectively. Specificity was poorer in concurrent samples as compared with predictive samples (38% vs. 72%), while PPV was low in both sample types (25 and 37%). Though random effects model results showed that the Scale had good overall predictive ability [RR, 4.33; 95% CI, 3.28-5.72], none of the concurrent samples were found to have "optimal" sensitivity and specificity. In conclusion, the appropriateness of the Braden Scale in LTC is questionable given its low specificity and PPV, in particular in concurrent validity studies. Future studies should further explore the extent to which the apparent low validity of the Scale in LTC is due to the choice of cutoff point and/or preventive strategies implemented by LTC staff as a matter of course.

  6. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The activities performed during the first year of the NASA HOST Program, Creep Fatigue Life Prediction for Engine Hot Section Materials (Isotropic), being conducted by Pratt & Whitney Aircraft are summarized. The program is a 5 year, two part effort aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results of the program produced thus far are discussed. Cast B1900 + Hf and wrought IN 718 were selected as the base and alternate materials, respectively. A single heat of B1900 + Hf was obtained and test specimens fabricated. The material was characterized with respect to grain size, gamma prime size, carbide distribution, and dislocation density. Monotonic tensile and creep testing has shown engineering properties within anticipated scatter for this material. Examination of the tensile tests has shown a transition from inhomogeneous planar slip within the grains at lower temperatures to more homogeneous matrix deformation. Examination of the creep tests has shown a transgranular failure mode at 1400 F and an intergranular failure mode at 1600 F and 1800 F.

  7. RANIBIZUMAB FOR RETINAL VEIN OCCLUSION: Predictive Factors and Long-Term Outcomes in Real-Life Data.

    PubMed

    Chatziralli, Irini; Theodossiadis, George; Chatzirallis, Alexandros; Parikakis, Efstratios; Mitropoulos, Panagiotis; Theodossiadis, Panagiotis

    2017-02-28

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate the long-term anatomical and functional outcomes in patients with retinal vein occlusion (RVO), either central retinal vein occlusion or branch retinal vein occlusion, treated with intravitreal ranibizumab and to determine the predictive factors of the final visual outcome. This retrospective study included 54 treatment-naive patients with macular edema due to RVO (25 with central retinal vein occlusion and 29 with branch retinal vein occlusion), who were treated with intravitreal ranibizumab (3 monthly injections and pro re nata). Predictive factors for visual outcome were assessed. In addition, the best-corrected visual acuity change and the percentage of patients with edema resolution were evaluated. The mean follow-up time was 47.4 ± 11.1 months. At the end of the follow-up, patients with central retinal vein occlusion gained +6.9 letters (∼1 Snellen line), whereas patients with branch retinal vein occlusion gained +15.1 letters (3 Snellen lines). Forty-eight percent of patients in central retinal vein occlusion group and 69.0% in branch retinal vein occlusion group presented resolution of macular edema. Negative predictive factors for the final visual outcome were found to be increasing age, increasing macular thickness, the presence of intraretinal fluid, the duration of RVO >3 months, the ischemic type of RVO, the cystoid type of edema, and the external limiting membrane and ellipsoid zone disruption. The various predictive factors that determine the visual outcome and possibly define the patients' prognosis after ranibizumab treatment in RVO have been studied. The long follow-up period showed that ranibizumab seems to be safe and effective in the treatment of the disease.

  8. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers

    PubMed Central

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2013-01-01

    Background/Context Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers’ effectiveness and retention. Research Design In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers’ résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Conclusions/Recommendations Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching

  9. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers.

    PubMed

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2014-01-01

    Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers' effectiveness and retention. In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers' résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching.

  10. Stress-Related Sleep Vulnerability and Maladaptive Sleep Beliefs Predict Insomnia at Long-Term Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Chien-Ming; Hung, Chih-Ying; Lee, Hsin-Chien

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Vulnerability to stress-related sleep disturbances and maladaptive sleep beliefs has been proposed to be predisposing factors for insomnia. Yet previous studies addressing these factors have been cross-sectional in nature and could not be used to infer the time sequences of the association. The current study used a six-year follow-up to examine the predisposing roles of these two factors and their interactions with major life stressors in the development of insomnia. Methods: One hundred seventeen college students recruited for a survey in 2006 participated in this follow-up survey in 2012. In 2006, they completed a packet of questionnaires including the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes about Sleep Questionnaire, 10-item version (DBAS-10), the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI); in 2012 they completed the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) and the modified Life Experiences Survey (LES). Results: Fourteen of the participants were found to suffer from insomnia as measured by the ISI. Logistic regression showed that scores on both DBAS-10 and FIRST could predict insomnia at follow-up. When the interaction of DBAS-10 and LES and that of FIRST and LES were added, both DBAS-10 and FIRST remained significant predictors, while the interaction of FIRST and LES showed a near-significant trend in predicting insomnia. Conclusions: The results showed that both vulnerability to stress-related sleep disturbances and maladaptive sleep beliefs are predisposing factors for insomnia. The hypothesized interaction effect between sleep vulnerability and major life stressors was found to be marginal. The maladaptive sleep beliefs, on the other hand, showed a predisposing effect independent from the influences of negative life events. Citation: Yang CM, Hung CY, Lee HC. Stress-related sleep vulnerability and maladaptive sleep beliefs predict insomnia at long-term follow-up. J Clin Sleep Med 2014;10(9):997-1001. PMID

  11. Latent profiles of non-residential father engagement six years after divorce predict long term offspring outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene

    2014-01-01

    This study examined profiles of non-residential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) six to eight years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, nine years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of non-residential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed nine years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes nine years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother’s remarriage, mother’s income, and gender, age and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems nine years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long-term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed. PMID:24484456

  12. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    SciTech Connect

    Toma Cajthaml; Vaclav Sasek

    2005-11-01

    Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) with pure carbon dioxide was used to obtain desorption curves of PAHs from four contaminated industrial soils. These were from a former gas works, a former tar processing plant, a former wood presentation plant, and a former gas-holder site. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 1495 to 2439 mg/kg. The desorption curves were fitted with a simple two-site model to determine the rapidly released fraction (F) representing bioavailability of PAHs. The F data obtained under various SFE pressures were compared with degradation results of a composting method applied on the soils. After composting and consequent long-term maturation, the residual PAH contaminations ranged from 4 to 36% of the original values. A possible explanation of the result variations is the different bioavailability of the pollutants. The best correlations between degradation results and F fraction were obtained applying 50{sup o}C and 300 bar. The F values gave very good agreement with degradation efficiencies and the total regression coefficients (r{sup 2}) ranged from 0.81 to 0.99. The degradation results together with bioavailable fractions appeared to be consistent with organic carbon contents in the soils and with volatile fractions of organics. The results indicate that SFE could be a rapid test to predict bioremediation results of composting of PAH-contaminated soils. 23 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  13. Predicting intentions for long-term anabolic-androgenic steroid use among men: a covariance structure model.

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, Tom; Langenbucher, James; Carr, Sasha; Sanjuan, Pilar; Park, Steff

    2006-09-01

    Long-term use of anabolic-androgenic steroids (AASs) is associated with both positive and negative effects. The authors examined possible mechanisms by which these effects contribute to AAS satisfaction and predict intentions for future AAS use. Five hundred male AAS users completed an interactive Web-based instrument assessing the psychological and physical effects of AAS use. Covariance structure modeling was used to evaluate both direct and indirect effects of AAS consequences on satisfaction with AASs and intentions for future AAS use. Results suggest that gain in muscle mass and psychological benefits from AAS use uniquely contributed to both AAS satisfaction and intentions for future use. Side effects from AAS use also uniquely contributed to AAS satisfaction, but ancillary drug use was found to partially mediate this relationship, suggesting that the satisfaction of experienced AAS users is enhanced by their mastery of side effects through the use of ancillary drugs. The final model explained 29% of the variance in intentions for future AAS use. Mechanisms for sustained AAS use and implications for intervention and prevention strategies are discussed.

  14. Long-term model predictive control of gene expression at the population and single-cell levels

    PubMed Central

    Uhlendorf, Jannis; Miermont, Agnès; Delaveau, Thierry; Charvin, Gilles; Fages, François; Bottani, Samuel; Batt, Gregory; Hersen, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    Gene expression plays a central role in the orchestration of cellular processes. The use of inducible promoters to change the expression level of a gene from its physiological level has significantly contributed to the understanding of the functioning of regulatory networks. However, from a quantitative point of view, their use is limited to short-term, population-scale studies to average out cell-to-cell variability and gene expression noise and limit the nonpredictable effects of internal feedback loops that may antagonize the inducer action. Here, we show that, by implementing an external feedback loop, one can tightly control the expression of a gene over many cell generations with quantitative accuracy. To reach this goal, we developed a platform for real-time, closed-loop control of gene expression in yeast that integrates microscopy for monitoring gene expression at the cell level, microfluidics to manipulate the cells’ environment, and original software for automated imaging, quantification, and model predictive control. By using an endogenous osmostress responsive promoter and playing with the osmolarity of the cells environment, we show that long-term control can, indeed, be achieved for both time-constant and time-varying target profiles at the population and even the single-cell levels. Importantly, we provide evidence that real-time control can dynamically limit the effects of gene expression stochasticity. We anticipate that our method will be useful to quantitatively probe the dynamic properties of cellular processes and drive complex, synthetically engineered networks. PMID:22893687

  15. Characteristics of the cavotricuspid isthmus in predicting recurrent conduction in the long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Lo, Li-Wei; Tai, Ching-Tai; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Wongcharoen, Wanwarang; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Udyavar, Ameya R; Hu, Yu-Feng; Ueng, Kuo-Chang; Tsai, Wen-Chin; Chang, Chien-Jung; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Higa, Satoshi; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2009-01-01

    The characteristics of cavotricuspid isthmus (CTI) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter that may predict recurrence of flutter is not known. We aimed to investigate the CTI characteristics in patients who underwent a second ablation procedure for recurrent AF after previous combined pulmonary vein (PV) and CTI ablation. Among 196 consecutive patients with drug-refractory symptomatic AF who underwent PV isolation and CTI ablation with bidirectional isthmus block, 49 patients (age 50 +/- 12 years, 43 males) had recurrent AF and received a second procedure 291 +/- 241 days after the first procedure. Right atrial angiography for the evaluation of the CTI morphology, and the biatrial contact bipolar electrograms were obtained before both procedures. In the second procedure, 11 (group 1) of the 49 patients demonstrated recovered CTI conduction. Compared with the patients without CTI conduction (group 2, n = 38), group 1 patients had a higher frequency of a pouch-type anatomy (82% vs 13%, P < 0.001), longer CTI (34.0 +/- 8.6 vs 25.5 +/- 7.5 mm, P = 0.01), longer ablation time, and larger number of radiofrequency applications; furthermore, the preablation bipolar voltage decreased along both the CTI and ablation line in group 2, whereas it remained similar in group 1 in the second procedure. A high (22%) percentage of CTIs exhibited recurrent conduction in the long-term follow-up. The CTIs with recurrent conduction had a higher incidence of a pouch and longer length compared with those without recurrent conduction.

  16. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    PubMed

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed.

  17. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  18. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

    PubMed

    Illán, Javier Gutiérrez; Thomas, Chris D; Jones, Julia A; Wong, Weng-Keen; Shirley, Susan M; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-11-01

    Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to

  19. Daily activity level improvement with antidepressant medications predicts long-term clinical outcomes in outpatients with major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    Jha, Manish K; Teer, Raymond B; Minhajuddin, Abu; Greer, Tracy L; Rush, A John; Trivedi, Madhukar H

    2017-01-01

    independently predicts long-term clinical outcomes. Brief systematic assessment of activity impairment during the course of antidepressant treatment can help inform clinical decision-making. PMID:28352180

  20. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for Photofrin-mediated photodynamic therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penjweini, Rozhin; Kim, Michele M.; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Although photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an established modality for the treatment of cancer, current dosimetric quantities do not account for the variations in PDT oxygen consumption for different fluence rates (φ). In this study we examine the efficacy of reacted singlet oxygen concentration ([1O2]rx) to predict long-term local control rate (LCR) for Photofrin-mediated PDT. Radiation-induced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors in the right shoulders of female C3H mice are treated with different in-air fluences of 225-540 J/cm2 and in-air fluence rate (φair) of 50 and 75 mW/cm2 at 5 mg/kg Photofrin and a drug-light interval of 24 hours using a 1 cm diameter collimated laser beam at 630 nm wavelength. [1O2]rx is calculated by using a macroscopic model based on explicit dosimetry of Photofrin concentration, tissue optical properties, tissue oxygenation and blood flow changes during PDT. The tumor volume of each mouse is tracked for 90 days after PDT and Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR are performed based on a tumor volume <=100 mm3, for the four dose metrics light fluence, photosensitizer photobleaching rate, PDT dose and [1O2]rx. PDT dose is defined as a temporal integral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. φ is calculated throughout the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulation and measured tissue optical properties. Our preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx is the best dosimetric quantity that can predict tumor response and correlate with LCR. Moreover, [1O2]rx calculated using the blood flow changes was in agreement with [1O2]rx calculated based on the actual tissue oxygenation.

  1. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for BPD-mediated photodynamic therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Michele M.; Penjweini, Rozhin; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a well-established treatment modality for cancer and other malignant diseases; however, quantities such as light fluence, photosensitizer photobleaching rate, and PDT dose do not fully account for all of the dynamic interactions between the key components involved. In particular, fluence rate (Φ) effects are not accounted for, which has a large effect on the oxygen consumption rate. In this preclinical study, reacted singlet oxygen [1O2]rx was investigated as a dosimetric quantity for PDT outcome. The ability of [1O2]rx to predict the long-term local tumor control rate (LCR) for BPD-mediated PDT was examined. Mice bearing radioactivelyinduced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors were treated with different in-air fluences (250, 300, and 350 J/cm2) and in-air ϕ (75, 100, and150 mW/cm2) with a BPD dose of 1 mg/kg and a drug-light interval of 3 hours. Treatment was delivered with a collimated laser beam of 1 cm diameter at 690 nm. Explicit dosimetry of initial tissue oxygen concentration, tissue optical properties, and BPD concentration was used to calculate [1O2]rx. Φ was calculated for the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulations and measured tissue optical properties. Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR were done for an endpoint of tumor volume <= 100 mm3 using four dose metrics: light fluence, photosensitizer photobleaching rate, PDT dose, and [1O2]rx. PDT dose was defined as the product of the timeintegral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. Preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx better correlates with LCR and is an effective dosimetric quantity that can predict treatment outcome.

  2. Positive Surgical Margins in Radical Prostatectomy Patients Do Not Predict Long-term Oncological Outcomes: Results from SEARCH

    PubMed Central

    Mithal, Prabhakar; Howard, Lauren E.; Aronson, William J.; Terris, Martha K.; Cooperberg, Matthew R.; Kane, Christopher J.; Amling, Christopher; Freedland, Stephen J.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To assess the impact of positive surgical margins (PSMs) on long-term outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP), including metastasis, castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Materials and Methods Retrospective study of 4,051 men in SEARCH treated by RP from 1988–2013. Proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios of PSMs in predicting BCR, CRPC, metastases, and PCSM. To determine if PSMs were more predictive in certain patients, analyses were stratified by pathological Gleason score, stage, and pre-operative PSA. Results Median follow-up was 6.6 years (IQR 3.2–10.6) and 1,127 patients had over 10 years of follow-up. During this time, 302 (32%) men experienced BCR, 112 (3%) developed CRPC, 144 (4%) developed metastases, and 83 (2%) died of PC. There were 1600 (40%) men with PSMs. In unadjusted models, PSMs were significantly associated with all adverse outcomes: BCR, CRPC, metastases and PCSM (all p ≤ 0.001). After adjusting for demographic and pathological characteristics, margins were associated with increased risk of only BCR (HR 1.98, p<0.001), and not CRPC, metastases, or PCSM (HR ≤ 1.20, p>0.18). Similar results were seen when stratified by pathological Gleason score, stage, or PSA, and when patients who underwent adjuvant therapy were excluded. Conclusions PSMs after RP are not an independent risk factor for CRPC, metastasis, or PCSM overall or within any subset. In the absence of other high-risk features, PSMs alone may not be an indication for adjuvant treatment. PMID:26010160

  3. Finite Element Prediction of Creep-Plastic Ratchetting and Low Cycle Creep-Fatigue for a Large SPF Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshpande, A. A.; Leen, S. B.; Hyde, T. H.

    2010-06-01

    Industrial experience shows that large superplastic forming (SPF) tools suffer from distortion due to thermal cycling, which apparently causes high temperature creep and plasticity. In addition to distortion, thermomechanical fatigue and fatigue-creep interaction can lead to cracking. The aim of this study is to predict the life-limiting thermomechanical behavior of a large SPF tool under realistic forming conditions using elastic-plastic-creep FE analyses. Nonlinear time-dependent, sequentially coupled FE analyses are performed using temperature-dependent monotonic and cyclic material data for a high-nickel, high-chromium tool material, XN40F (40% Ni and 20% Cr). The effect of monotonic and cyclic material data is compared vis-à-vis the anisothermal, elastic-plastic-stress response of the SPF tool. An uncoupled cyclic plasticity-creep material model is employed. Progressive deformation (ratchetting) is predicted locally, transverse to the predominant direction of the creep-fatigue cycling, but at the same spatial location, due to creep and cyclic plasticity, during the so-called minor cycles, which correspond to comparatively small-amplitude temperature changes associated with opening of the press doors during part loading and unloading operations.

  4. Observing versus Predicting: Initial Patterns of Filling Predict Long-Term Adherence More Accurately Than High-Dimensional Modeling Techniques.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Lii, Joyce; Krumme, Alexis K; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2016-02-01

    Despite the proliferation of databases with increasingly rich patient data, prediction of medication adherence remains poor. We proposed and evaluated approaches for improved adherence prediction. We identified Medicare beneficiaries who received prescription drug coverage through CVS Caremark and initiated a statin. A total of 643 variables were identified at baseline from prior claims and linked Census data. In addition, we identified three postbaseline predictors, indicators of adherence to statins during each of the first 3 months of follow-up. We estimated 10 models predicting subsequent adherence, using logistic regression and boosted logistic regression, a nonparametric data-mining technique. Models were also estimated within strata defined by the index days supply. In 77,703 statin initiators, prediction using baseline variables only was poor with maximum cross-validated C-statistics of 0.606 and 0.577 among patients with index supply ≤30 days and >30 days, respectively. Using only indicators of initial statin adherence improved prediction accuracy substantially among patients with shorter initial dispensings (C = 0.827/0.518), and, when combined with investigator-specified variables, prediction accuracy was further improved (C = 0.842/0.596). Observed adherence immediately after initiation predicted future adherence for patients whose initial dispensings were relatively short. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  5. Prediction of elemental creep. [steady state and cyclic data from regression analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Rummler, D. R.

    1975-01-01

    Cyclic and steady-state creep tests were performed to provide data which were used to develop predictive equations. These equations, describing creep as a function of stress, temperature, and time, were developed through the use of a least squares regression analyses computer program for both the steady-state and cyclic data sets. Comparison of the data from the two types of tests, revealed that there was no significant difference between the cyclic and steady-state creep strains for the L-605 sheet under the experimental conditions investigated (for the same total time at load). Attempts to develop a single linear equation describing the combined steady-state and cyclic creep data resulted in standard errors of estimates higher than obtained for the individual data sets. A proposed approach to predict elemental creep in metals uses the cyclic creep equation and a computer program which applies strain and time hardening theories of creep accumulation.

  6. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  7. Nature of nonlinear imprint in ferroelectric films and long-term prediction of polarization loss in ferroelectric memories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tagantsev, Alexander K.; Stolichnov, Igor; Setter, Nava; Cross, Jeffrey S.

    2004-12-01

    The phenomenon of polarization imprint consisting of the development of a preferential polarization state in ferroelectric films is known as one of the major issues impacting the development of high density ferroelectric memories. According to the commonly accepted scenario, the imprint is related to the charge injection and charge accumulation in the nearby-electrode passive layer of the ferroelectric film. Recent studies demonstrated that the coercive voltage shift induced by the imprint exhibits a nonlinear time dependence in a logarithmic scale. This result was interpreted as the presence of two different imprint mechanisms characterized by different activation energies. In the present work, an analytical theory of the injection scenario of imprint is developed. The charge accumulation at the interface is shown to provoke a voltage offset and polarization loss which are nonlinearly dependent on the time in logarithmic scale. This result is obtained for different charge injection mechanisms including Schottky, Pool-Frenkel, and tunneling scenarios. Thus, it is shown that a single imprint mechanism can be responsible for a nolinear (in logarithmic scale) time dependence of the voltage offset and polarization loss. Additionally, the temperature dependence of the logarithmic rate of imprint is shown to be nonexponential. The developed model ties together the time and temperature dependences of imprint. For the experimental verification of the model a study of imprint has been performed on (111) Pb(Zr ,Ti)O3 film capacitors with temperatures ranging from 25 to 150°C and exposure times up to 1000h. It has been found that the theory developed adequately describes the obtained experimental data. Based upon the theoretical and experimental results a test for ferroelectric memories is proposed, which enables the long-term prediction of polarization loss caused by imprint for a wide temperature range and for different operating voltages.

  8. Predicting the Long-Term Gains in Health-Related Quality of Life After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Schilling, Chris G; Dowsey, Michelle M; Petrie, Dennis J; Clarke, Philip M; Choong, Peter F

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the predictors of long-term gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and the patient attributes that predicted cost-effective TKA. Data on TKA patients (n = 570) from 2006 to 2007 were extracted from a single-institution registry. QALY gains over 7 years post surgery were calculated from health-related quality of life (HrQoL) scores measured preoperatively and annually postoperatively using the short-form health survey (SF-12) instrument. Multivariate linear regression analysis investigated the predictors of QALY gain from TKA from a broad range of preoperative patient characteristics and was used to predict QALY gains for each individual. Patients were grouped into deciles according to their predicted QALY gain, and the cost-effectiveness of each decile was plotted on the cost-effectiveness plane. Patient attribute differences between deciles were decomposed. After exclusions and dropout, data were available for 488 patients. The average estimated QALY gain over 7 years was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.83). Predictors significantly associated with smaller QALY gains were comorbidities (Charlson comorbidity index 3+ coefficient -0.54 CI -0.15 to -0.92), the absence of severe osteoarthritis in the ipsilateral knee (-0.51 CI -0.16 to -0.85), preoperative HrQoL (standardized coefficient -0.34 CI -0.26 to -0.43), the requirement for an interpreter (-0.24 CI -0.05 to -0.44), and age (-0.01 CI -0.01 to -0.02). The largest difference between cost-effective and non-cost-effective deciles was relatively high preoperative HrQoL in the non-cost-effective decile. TKA is likely to be cost-effective for most patients except those with unusually high preoperative HrQoL or a lack of severe osteoarthritis. The poorer outcomes for those requiring an interpreter requires further research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The long-term predictability of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial zonal winds and total ozone.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabis, Irina; Troshichev, Oleg

    Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere is the important component of general atmospheric circulation affecting the variability of many phenomena beyond the equatorial region. Wind QBO is the alternating easterly and westerly wind regimes descending in height with time. The stagnation stage, i.e. interruption of the easterly wind descent at altitude range 20-40 hPa within some months, is a typical feature inherent to each QBO-cycle. Start and end of stagnation stages are distinctly related to solstice and equinox, respectively. As a result, the complete QBO-cycle, appointed as a time interval between the beginnings of successive stagnation stages, displays the clearly defined quantized period that can be equal to 24, 30 or 36 months. The strong seasonal regularity and the appropriate discreteness of QBO-period make it possible to forecast in advance the current QBO-cycle evolution and the subsequent QBO-cycle start date. The tropical total column ozone associated with the equatorial wind QBO is also subjected to variations related to the seasons in course of irregular alternation of QBO-cycles. This regularity is indicative of possibility to forecast the equatorial total ozone QBO basing on the predicted wind QBO. The method for wind QBO forecasting was validated by excellent agreement between the predictions by Gabis (2012) made as far forward as two years and actually observed wind changes. The justice of the long-term QBO forecast provides a convincing confirmation of the seasonal dependency of wind QBO evolution in contrast to common belief in the irregularly varying QBO-period. It means that discretely variable QBO-period and its unambiguous relation to seasons should be taken into account in mechanisms of the QBO generation. The analysis of zonal wind observations for period January-June 2014 makes it possible to predict the wind changes during the whole current QBO-cycle, starting in January 2014 and to define

  10. Slow crack propagation in glass and creep prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, Celine; Fortin, Jerome; Gueguen, Yves

    2013-04-01

    The context of our study is the observation of the time-dependent deformation of cracked glass. The aim of our study is to observe the slow crack propagation, to quantify it and to predict finally the creep behavior. We performed creep experiments in compaction conditions in a triaxial cell, on cracked boro-silicate glass samples. The chemical composition of the investigated glass is very close to the composition of waste vitrified packages. The matrix of the original glass (OG) is perfectly amorphous, without porosity. A few isolated air bubbles are trapped during the glass flow. Cracks are introduced in the OG through thermal shocks. Strain and acoustic emission (AE) are recorded. Several experiments are performed at different confining pressures (15 or 25 MPa), different pore fluid conditions (with argon gas, considered as the dry case, with tap water saturated porosity, or with distilled water) and different temperatures (ambiant temperature, 50oC or 80oC). Linear increase of the volumetric strain is first observed. A dilatancy increase is recorded. Note that dilatancy does not appear in constant strain rate tests. Constant stress tests show that dilatancy develops during a time interval that depends on the stress level. In addition AE rate are recorded. A non zero AE rate is an evidence of crack propagation. We use a micro-mechanical model that gives the stress intensity factor at the crack tips. This factor depends on stress and geometrical parameters (all known). An exponential law describe the rate of crack propagation, as a function of temperature, environment and applied stresses. This model allows us to predict the creep rate in glass. Assuming a constant crack aspect ratio, crack length and volumetric strain are related. The volumetric strain rate is calculated from model and compared to the data.

  11. Early Expressive Language Skills Predict Long-Term Neurocognitive Outcomes in Cochlear Implant Users: Evidence from the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica

    2016-08-01

    The objective of the present article was to document the extent to which early expressive language skills (measured using the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories [CDI; Fenson et al., 2006]) predict long-term neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of early-implanted prelingually deaf cochlear implant (CI) users. The CDI was used to index the early expressive language skills of 32 pediatric CI users after an average of 1.03 years (SD = 0.56, range = 0.39-2.17) of CI experience. Long-term neurocognitive outcomes were assessed after an average of 11.32 (SD = 2.54, range = 7.08-16.52) years of CI experience. Measures of long-term neurocognitive outcomes were derived from gold-standard performance-based and questionnaire-based assessments of language, executive functioning, and academic skills. Analyses revealed that early expressive language skills, collected on average 1.03 years post cochlear implantation, predicted long-term language, executive functioning, and academic skills up to 16 years later. These findings suggest that early expressive language skills, as indexed by the CDI, are clinically relevant for identifying CI users who may be at high risk for long-term neurocognitive delays and disturbances.

  12. Early Expressive Language Skills Predict Long-Term Neurocognitive Outcomes in Cochlear Implant Users: Evidence from the MacArthur–Bates Communicative Development Inventories

    PubMed Central

    Pisoni, David B.; Kronenberger, William G.; Beer, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The objective of the present article was to document the extent to which early expressive language skills (measured using the MacArthur–Bates Communicative Development Inventories [CDI; Fenson et al., 2006]) predict long-term neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of early-implanted prelingually deaf cochlear implant (CI) users. Method The CDI was used to index the early expressive language skills of 32 pediatric CI users after an average of 1.03 years (SD = 0.56, range = 0.39–2.17) of CI experience. Long-term neurocognitive outcomes were assessed after an average of 11.32 (SD = 2.54, range = 7.08–16.52) years of CI experience. Measures of long-term neurocognitive outcomes were derived from gold-standard performance-based and questionnaire-based assessments of language, executive functioning, and academic skills. Result Analyses revealed that early expressive language skills, collected on average 1.03 years post cochlear implantation, predicted long-term language, executive functioning, and academic skills up to 16 years later. Conclusion These findings suggest that early expressive language skills, as indexed by the CDI, are clinically relevant for identifying CI users who may be at high risk for long-term neurocognitive delays and disturbances. PMID:27390923

  13. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 2: Phase 2 subsize panel cyclic creep predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cramer, B. A.; Davis, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    A method for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures was developed. The resulting computer program may be applied to either the time-hardening or strain-hardening theories of creep accumulation. Iterative techniques were used to determine structural rotations, creep strains, and stresses as a function of time. Deflections were determined by numerical integration of structural rotations along the panel length. The analytical approach was developed for analyzing thin-gage entry vehicle metallic-thermal-protection system panels subjected to cyclic bending loads at high temperatures, but may be applied to any panel subjected to bending loads. Predicted panel creep deflections were compared with results from cyclic tests of subsize corrugation and rib-stiffened panels. Empirical equations were developed for each material based on correlation with tensile cyclic creep data and both the subsize panels and tensile specimens were fabricated from the same sheet material. For Vol. 1, see N75-21431.

  14. Evolution of creep-fatigue life prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    1991-01-01

    The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940s. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches have been identified as being combinations of fourteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made.

  15. Evolution of creep-fatigue life prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    1991-01-01

    The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940s. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches have been identified as being combinations of fourteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made.

  16. Predicting plasticity: acute context-dependent changes to vocal performance predict long-term age-dependent changes

    PubMed Central

    James, Logan S.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors that predict and guide variation in behavioral change can lend insight into mechanisms of motor plasticity and individual differences in behavior. The performance of adult birdsong changes with age in a manner that is similar to rapid context-dependent changes to song. To reveal mechanisms of vocal plasticity, we analyzed the degree to which variation in the direction and magnitude of age-dependent changes to Bengalese finch song could be predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. Using a repeated-measures design, we found that variation in age-dependent changes to the timing, sequencing, and structure of vocal elements (“syllables”) was significantly predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. In particular, the degree to which the duration of intersyllable gaps, syllable sequencing at branch points, and fundamental frequency of syllables within spontaneous [undirected (UD)] songs changed over time was correlated with the degree to which these features changed from UD song to female-directed (FD) song in young-adult finches (FDyoung). As such, the structure of some temporal features of UD songs converged over time onto the structure of FDyoung songs. This convergence suggested that the FDyoung song could serve as a stable target for vocal motor plasticity. Consequently, we analyzed the stability of FD song and found that the temporal structure of FD song changed significantly over time in a manner similar to UD song. Because FD song is considered a state of heightened performance, these data suggest that age-dependent changes could reflect practice-related improvements in vocal motor performance. PMID:26311186

  17. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Physically Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffin, Margaret L.; Amodeo, Maryann

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child physical abuse (CPA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for the explanation for heterogeneous outcomes in women with CPA has led to an examination of a range of CPA-related factors, from the severity of CPA incidents to the childhood…

  18. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Sexually Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity Versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fassler, I.R.; Amodeo, M.; Griffin, M.L.; Clay, C.M.; Ellis, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective:: Child sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for explanations for the heterogeneous outcomes in women with CSA has led to an examination of a range of CSA-related factors, from the severity of individual CSA incidents to the…

  19. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  20. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Cheng-Chi; Chen, Chung-Ming; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Wei, Kuo-Chen; Pai, Ping-Ching; Toh, Cheng-Hong; Chuang, Chi-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent transsphenoidal surgery. Hypogonadism was defined as total serum testosterone levels of <2.4 ng/mL. The tumor volume was calculated based on the pre- and post-operative magnetic resonance images. We prescribed testosterone to patients with defined hypogonadism or clinical symptoms of hypogonadism. Hormone replacement for longer than 1 year was considered as long-term therapy. The need for long-term post-operative testosterone replacement was significantly associated with larger pre-operative tumor volume (p = 0.0067), and lower pre-operative testosterone level (p = 0.0101). There was no significant difference between the gross total tumor resection and subtotal resection groups (p = 0.1059). The pre-operative tumor volume and testosterone level impact post-operative hypogonadism. By measuring the tumor volume and the testosterone level and by performing adequate tumor resection, surgeons will be able to predict post-operative hypogonadism and the need for long-term hormone replacement. PMID:26537232

  1. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma.

    PubMed

    Lee, Cheng-Chi; Chen, Chung-Ming; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Wei, Kuo-Chen; Pai, Ping-Ching; Toh, Cheng-Hong; Chuang, Chi-Cheng

    2015-11-05

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent transsphenoidal surgery. Hypogonadism was defined as total serum testosterone levels of <2.4 ng/mL. The tumor volume was calculated based on the pre- and post-operative magnetic resonance images. We prescribed testosterone to patients with defined hypogonadism or clinical symptoms of hypogonadism. Hormone replacement for longer than 1 year was considered as long-term therapy. The need for long-term post-operative testosterone replacement was significantly associated with larger pre-operative tumor volume (p = 0.0067), and lower pre-operative testosterone level (p = 0.0101). There was no significant difference between the gross total tumor resection and subtotal resection groups (p = 0.1059). The pre-operative tumor volume and testosterone level impact post-operative hypogonadism. By measuring the tumor volume and the testosterone level and by performing adequate tumor resection, surgeons will be able to predict post-operative hypogonadism and the need for long-term hormone replacement.

  2. Creep crack growth predictions in INCO 718 using a continuum damage model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.; Wilson, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Creep crack growth tests have been carried out in compact type specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). Theoretical creep crack growth predictions have been carried out by incorporating a unified viscoplastic constitutive model and a continuum damage model into the ARAQUS nonlinear finite element program. Material constants for both the viscoplastic model and the creep continuum damage model were determined from tests carried out on uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). A comparison of the theoretical creep crack growth rates obtained from the finite element predictions with the experimentally observed creep crack growth rates indicates that the viscoplastic/continuum damage model can be used to successfully predict creep crack growth in compact type specimens using material constants obtained from uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C).

  3. Family history and frontal lobe seizures predict long-term remission in newly diagnosed cryptogenic focal epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Gasparini, Sara; Ferlazzo, Edoardo; Beghi, Ettore; Tripepi, Giovanni; Labate, Angelo; Mumoli, Laura; Leonardi, Cinzia G; Cianci, Vittoria; Latella, Maria Adele; Gambardella, Antonio; Aguglia, Umberto

    2013-11-01

    Cryptogenic focal epilepsy (CFE) is a heterogeneous clinical disorder including patients with severe refractory forms and patients with a fairly good prognosis. Predictors of prognosis in CFE are poorly understood. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify long-term (5-year) prognostic predictors in patients with newly diagnosed CFE. Subjects with cryptogenic focal epilepsy (CFE) seen from April 1987 to September 2011 in two twin Epilepsy Centres located in Reggio Calabria and Catanzaro, Calabria, Southern Italy, were screened. Patients were excluded if they had psychogenic seizures, major psychiatric disorders presence of brain lesions except for non-specific white matter T2-hyperintensities, short follow-up (less than five years) or for having received the diagnosis of CFE elsewhere. One hundred and eighty-six patients, firstly diagnosed in our Centres, constituted the study sample. Survival curves were generated according to the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. The endpoint was the cumulative time-dependent chance of 5-year remission after treatment start. Independent predictors of remission were tested by multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards function models. The accuracy of the resulting model was tested with Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. The cumulative incidence of remission was 23%. At Kaplan-Meier analysis, the only factor predicting remission was family history of epilepsy or febrile seizures (FS; p=0.02). At Cox regression, family history and frontal lobe epilepsy showed to be independent predictors of outcome (p=0.02 and 0.03, respectively). The accuracy of these predictors was good (area under ROC curve 0.648, 95% CI 0.575-0.716). Interestingly, we also found a considerable (7 years) diagnostic delay that did not result in a worse prognosis. About one quarter of subjects with newly diagnosed CFE attains 5-year seizure remission during follow-up. Family history of epilepsy or FS

  4. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko; Tanaka, Kazuya

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs) can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate) and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type) influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1) trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2) the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  5. Trophic Position and Metabolic Rate Predict the Long-Term Decay Process of Radioactive Cesium in Fish: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko; Tanaka, Kazuya

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (137Cs) can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term 137Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate) and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type) influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1) trophic position could predict the day of maximum 137Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2) the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of 137Cs activity concentration in fish. PMID:22279534

  6. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-01-01

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants <2 years of age because of their carcinogenic potential. We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial to evaluate the efficacy of TCIs as a secondary AD treatment for children <2 years of age by comparing 1% pimecrolimus cream with 0.05% desonide cream. We performed urinary metabolomics to predict long-term side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration. PMID:25491116

  7. A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

    1992-01-01

    A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

  8. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction and implementation. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1998-06-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used for treatment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make them ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity. As part of this effort, the author will provide deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and extend this approach and mathematical models to additional systems of high priority EM relevance--direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX and chlorinated organics. This report summarizes work after 2 years of a 3-year project. Major results are enumerated and discussed'

  9. Predictive factors of the long term outcome in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: six year follow up of 107 patients.

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, E; Ros, E; Toledo-Pimentel, V; Pujol, A; Bordas, J M; Grande, L; Pera, C

    1994-01-01

    There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived. PMID:8307456

  10. Early response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy can help predict long-term survival in patients with cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiong; Huang, Kecheng; Zhang, Qinghua; Shen, Jian; Zhou, Hang; Yang, Runfeng; Wang, Lin; Liu, Jiong; Zhang, Jincheng; Sun, Haiying; Jia, Yao; Du, Xiaofang; Wang, Haoran; Deng, Song; Ding, Ting; Jiang, Jingjing; Lu, Yunping; Li, Shuang; Wang, Shixuan; Ma, Ding

    2016-12-27

    It is still controversial whether cervical cancer patients with clinical responses after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) have a better long-term survival or not. This study was designed to investigate the effect of the clinical response on the disease-free survival (DFS) of cervical cancer patients undergoing NACT. A total of 853 patients from a retrospective study were used to evaluate whether the clinical response was an indicator for the long-term response, and 493 patients from a prospective cohort study were used for further evaluation. The survival difference was detected by log-rank test, univariate and multivariate Cox regression and a pooled analysis. The log-rank test revealed that compared with non-responders, the DFS of responders was significantly higher in the retrospective data (P = 0.007). Univariate Cox regression showed that the clinical response was an indicator of long-term survival in the retrospective study (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.18-2.85, P = 0.007). In a multivariate Cox model, the clinical response was still retained as an independent significant prognostic factor in the retrospective study (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.01-2.50, P = 0.046). The result was also validated in the prospective data with similar results. These findings implied that the clinical response can be regarded as an independent predictor of DFS.

  11. Early response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy can help predict long-term survival in patients with cervical cancer

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Jian; Zhou, Hang; Yang, Runfeng; Wang, Lin; Liu, Jiong; Zhang, Jincheng; Sun, Haiying; Jia, Yao; Du, Xiaofang; Wang, Haoran; Deng, Song; Ding, Ting; Jiang, Jingjing; Lu, Yunping; Li, Shuang; Wang, Shixuan; Ma, Ding

    2016-01-01

    It is still controversial whether cervical cancer patients with clinical responses after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) have a better long-term survival or not. This study was designed to investigate the effect of the clinical response on the disease-free survival (DFS) of cervical cancer patients undergoing NACT. A total of 853 patients from a retrospective study were used to evaluate whether the clinical response was an indicator for the long-term response, and 493 patients from a prospective cohort study were used for further evaluation. The survival difference was detected by log-rank test, univariate and multivariate Cox regression and a pooled analysis. The log-rank test revealed that compared with non-responders, the DFS of responders was significantly higher in the retrospective data (P = 0.007). Univariate Cox regression showed that the clinical response was an indicator of long-term survival in the retrospective study (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.18-2.85, P = 0.007). In a multivariate Cox model, the clinical response was still retained as an independent significant prognostic factor in the retrospective study (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.01-2.50, P = 0.046). The result was also validated in the prospective data with similar results. These findings implied that the clinical response can be regarded as an independent predictor of DFS. PMID:27557523

  12. Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1997-01-01

    The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

  13. Evaluating long-term relationship of protein sequence by use of D-interval conditional probability and its impact on protein structural class prediction.

    PubMed

    Gu, Fei; Chen, Hang

    2009-01-01

    To fix the large and expanding gap between sequence known proteins and structure known proteins, it is important to study on protein structural class prediction (PSCP) for its foundation and usefulness in protein structure analysis. In this paper, the d-interval conditional probability index was proposed to reflect the long-term correlation between amino acids. Based on this index, the impact of residues' long-term relationship on PSCP was analyzed. Two new information theory based algorithms were proposed and were used combining with the long-term information between residues to predict protein structural class (PSC). The dataset 5714 was tested for its low sequence similarity and high reliability. The result showed that the new index was 3-6% higher than traditional index by use of the same algorithms, and the PSCP accuracy was 4-10% improved using the new algorithms. The presented index, algorithms and the long-term relationship of residues on PSCP can be extensively applied in other sequence based protein structure analysis.

  14. Presenting symptoms of myocardial infarction predict short- and long-term mortality: the MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry.

    PubMed

    Kirchberger, Inge; Heier, Margit; Kuch, Bernhard; von Scheidt, Wolfgang; Meisinger, Christa

    2012-12-01

    It is unknown whether clinical outcomes differ with specific symptoms of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between 13 self-reported symptoms and 28-day case fatality or long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AMI. The sample consisted of 1,231 men and 415 women aged 25 to 74 years hospitalized with a first-time AMI recruited from a population-based AMI registry. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to assess the relationship between symptom occurrence and 28-day case fatality. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effects on long-term mortality. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age, type of AMI, diabetes, prehospital delay time, and reperfusion therapy. The median observation time was 4.1 years (interquartile range 15 years). Twenty-eight-day case fatality was 6.1%, and long-term mortality was 10.6%. Patients who experienced fear of death (odds ratio [OR] 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.47), diaphoresis (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25-0.82), or nausea (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22-0.95) had a significantly decreased risk of dying within 28 days, whereas syncope (OR 5.36, 95% CI 2.65-10.85) was associated with a higher risk. A decreased risk for long-term mortality was found for people with pain in the upper abdomen (hazard ratio 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.97), whereas dyspnea was related to an increased risk (hazard ratio 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.06). The absence of chest symptoms was associated with a 1.85-fold risk for long-term mortality (95% CI 1.13-3.03). Specific symptoms are associated with mortality. Further research is required to illuminate the reasons for this finding. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Creep behaviour and creep mechanisms of normal and healing ligaments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, Gail Marilyn

    . Similarly, ligament autografts had persistently abnormal creep behaviour and creep recovery after 2 years likely due to infiltration by scar tissue. Short-term immobilization of autografts had long-term detrimental consequences perhaps due to re-injury of the graft at remobilization. Treatments that restore normal properties to these mechanistic factors in order to control creep would improve joint healing by restoring joint kinematics and maintaining normal joint loading.

  16. Prediction of creep-rupture life of unidirectional titanium matrix composites subjected to transverse loading

    SciTech Connect

    John, R.; Khobaib, M.; Smith, P.R.

    1996-10-01

    Titanium matrix composites (TMCs) incorporating unidirectional fiber reinforcement are considered as enabling materials technology for advanced engines which require high specific strength and elevated temperature capability. The resistance of unidirectional TMCs to deformation under longitudinally applied sustained loading at elevated temperatures has been well documented. Many investigators have shown that the primary weakness of the unidirectional TMC is its susceptibility to failure under very low transverse loads, especially under sustained loading. Hence, a reliable model is required to predict the creep-rupture life of TMCs subjected to different transverse stress levels over a wide range of temperatures. In this article, the authors propose a model to predict the creep-rupture life of unidirectional TMC subjected to transverse loading based on the creep-rupture life of unidirectional TMC subjected to transverse loading based on the creep-rupture behavior of the corresponding fiberless matrix. The model assumes that during transverse loading, the effective load-carrying matrix ligament along a row of fibers controls the creep-rupture strength and the fibers do not contribute to the creep resistance of the composite. The proposed model was verified using data obtained from different TMC fabricated using three matrix compositions, which exhibited distinctly different types of creep behavior. The results show that the creep-rupture life of the transverse TMC decreases linearly with increasing ratio of the fiber diameter to the ply thickness. The creep-rupture life is also predicted to be independent of fiber spacing along the length of the specimen.

  17. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  18. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis.

  19. Immediate salbutamol responsiveness does not predict long-term benefits of indacaterol in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    PubMed

    Burgel, Pierre-Régis; Le Gros, Vincent; Decuypère, Laurent; Bourdeix, Isabelle; Perez, Thierry; Deslée, Gaëtan

    2017-01-31

    subsequent visits, mMRC and CCQ scores, and FEV1 improved from baseline with no significant difference between the Rv and NRv groups. Immediate FEV1 response to salbutamol did not predict the long-term benefits observed with indacaterol treatment in patients with COPD. Patients considered reversible or non-reversible to salbutamol showed comparable improvements in lung function, dyspnoea and health-related quality of life. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01272362 . Date: January 5, 2011.

  20. Severe nutritional risk predicts decreased long-term survival in geriatric patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for benign disease.

    PubMed

    Sanford, Dominic E; Sanford, Angela M; Fields, Ryan C; Hawkins, William G; Strasberg, Steven M; Linehan, David C

    2014-12-01

    Weight loss and malnutrition are poorly tolerated by geriatric patients, and pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) can result in chronic malabsorption and weight loss. We sought to determine how preoperative severe nutritional risk (SNR), as defined by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program/American Geriatric Society Best Practice Guidelines, affects long-term survival after PD for benign disease among geriatric and nongeriatric patients. All patients undergoing PD for nonmalignant conditions at a single center between 1995 and 2013 were followed for survival, excluding patients who died within 90 days of surgery. Survival of geriatric (age ≥65 years) and nongeriatric (age <65 years) patients with and without SNR was compared using Kaplan Meier methods. Cox regression was performed. There were 320 patients who underwent PD for benign disease. Over the course of the study, the proportion of geriatric patients undergoing PD for benign conditions increased from 25% to 46%. In addition to being older, geriatric patients undergoing PD for benign disease were significantly more likely to have coronary artery disease (CAD) and hypertension. Geriatric patients with preoperative SNR had significantly decreased long-term survival after PD for benign disease (p < 0.001), with roughly 1 in 3 patients dead at 5 years compared with 1 in 14 patients without SNR. Survival was not significantly different among nongeriatric patients with and without SNR. In geriatric patients, age, CAD, and SNR were significantly associated with decreased survival on both univariate and multivariate analysis. Severe nutritional risk can be a useful predictor of long-term survival in geriatric patients undergoing PD, and could improve patient risk stratification preoperatively. Nonoperative management should be strongly considered in geriatric patients with SNR, when malignancy is not suspected. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc

  1. The hyperactivity/inattention subscale of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire predicts short- and long-term weight loss in overweight children and adolescents treated as outpatients.

    PubMed

    van Egmond-Froehlich, Andreas; Bullinger, Monika; Holl, Reinhard W; Hoffmeister, Ulrike; Mann, Reinhard; Goldapp, Cornelia; Westenhoefer, Joachim; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike; de Zwaan, Martina

    2012-01-01

    The success of treatment for pediatric obesity is variable and often unsatisfactory. This study elucidates the influence of inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity on short- and long-term weight loss and maintenance after outpatient treatment. We included 8- to 16-year-old overweight and obese participants treated in 17 multidisciplinary outpatient treatment centers in a nationwide observational study. All treatment centers that reported long-term (1-year) follow-up weight data of at least 60% of the participants were included. At the beginning and end of treatment and at 1 year follow-up weight and height were measured at the center. Inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity were assessed with the hyperactivity/inattention subscale (HI) of the parent-rated Strengths and Difficulty Questionnaire (SDQ). General linear models were used with the standard deviation scores of the BMI (BMI-SDS) as dependent variable and HI scores as main independent variable adjusting for age, sex, baseline BMI-SDS, and center. 394 participants were included (57% female, age: 11.7± 2.0 years, baseline BMI-SDS 2.32 ±.46 kg/m(2)). HI scores were significantly associated with short- and long-term BMI-SDS (p < 0.0005), with higher baseline HI scores predicting less weight loss. Our results indicate that inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity are linearly associated with reduced short- and long-term weight loss. Implications for treatment are discussed. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg

  2. Methodology to predict the number of forced outages due to creep failure

    SciTech Connect

    Palermo, J.V. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    All alloy metals at a temperature above 950 degrees Fahrenheit experience creep damage. Creep failures in boiler tubes usually begin after 25 to 40 years of operation. Since creep damage is irreversible, the only remedy is to replace the tube sections. By predicting the number of failures per year, the utility can make the best economic decision concerning tube replacement. This paper describes a methodology to calculate the number of forced outages per yea due to creep failures. This methodology is particularly useful to utilities that have boilers that have at least 25 years of operation.

  3. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  4. Predictive Potential of Preoperative Nutritional Status in Long-Term Outcome Projections for Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Sakurai, Katsunobu; Ohira, Masaichi; Tamura, Tatsuro; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Kubo, Naoshi; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2016-02-01

    Preoperative nutritional status not only correlates with the incidence of postoperative complications but also may be indicative of long-term outcomes for patients with cancer. The impact of preoperative nutritional status on outcomes for patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC) was investigated. The study reviewed 594 patients treated for GC by gastrectomy at the authors' hospital between January, 2004 and December, 2010. Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (PNI) was invoked, using an optimal cut point to group patients as having high (PNI > 45; n = 449) or low (PNI ≤ 45; n = 145) nutritional status. Clinicopathologic features, perioperative results, and long-term outcomes, including cause of death, were compared. Multivariate analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) indicated that low PNI was independently associated with unfavorable outcomes for patients with GC. In subgroup analysis, the 5-year OS and DSS rates for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2 were significantly worse in the low PNI group than in the high PNI group. Although wound and extrasurgical field infections also tended to be more frequent in the low PNI group, postoperative intraabdominal infections did not differ significantly by group. Preoperative PNI may have merit as a gauge of prognosis for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2, but PNI and postoperative morbidity showed no correlation in this setting.

  5. Metabolic Profiling of Human Long-Term Liver Models and Hepatic Clearance Predictions from In Vitro Data Using Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Modeling.

    PubMed

    Kratochwil, Nicole A; Meille, Christophe; Fowler, Stephen; Klammers, Florian; Ekiciler, Aynur; Molitor, Birgit; Simon, Sandrine; Walter, Isabelle; McGinnis, Claudia; Walther, Johanna; Leonard, Brian; Triyatni, Miriam; Javanbakht, Hassan; Funk, Christoph; Schuler, Franz; Lavé, Thierry; Parrott, Neil J

    2017-03-01

    Early prediction of human clearance is often challenging, in particular for the growing number of low-clearance compounds. Long-term in vitro models have been developed which enable sophisticated hepatic drug disposition studies and improved clearance predictions. Here, the cell line HepG2, iPSC-derived hepatocytes (iCell®), the hepatic stem cell line HepaRG™, and human hepatocyte co-cultures (HμREL™ and HepatoPac®) were compared to primary hepatocyte suspension cultures with respect to their key metabolic activities. Similar metabolic activities were found for the long-term models HepaRG™, HμREL™, and HepatoPac® and the short-term suspension cultures when averaged across all 11 enzyme markers, although differences were seen in the activities of CYP2D6 and non-CYP enzymes. For iCell® and HepG2, the metabolic activity was more than tenfold lower. The micropatterned HepatoPac® model was further evaluated with respect to clearance prediction. To assess the in vitro parameters, pharmacokinetic modeling was applied. The determination of intrinsic clearance by nonlinear mixed-effects modeling in a long-term model significantly increased the confidence in the parameter estimation and extended the sensitive range towards 3% of liver blood flow, i.e., >10-fold lower as compared to suspension cultures. For in vitro to in vivo extrapolation, the well-stirred model was used. The micropatterned model gave rise to clearance prediction in man within a twofold error for the majority of low-clearance compounds. Further research is needed to understand whether transporter activity and drug metabolism by non-CYP enzymes, such as UGTs, SULTs, AO, and FMO, is comparable to the in vivo situation in these long-term culture models.

  6. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

  7. Long-term effectiveness and prediction of treatment outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy and sertraline for late-life anxiety disorders.

    PubMed

    Schuurmans, Josien; Comijs, Hannie; Emmelkamp, Paul M G; Weijnen, Ingrid J C; van den Hout, Marcel; van Dyck, Richard

    2009-12-01

    Although anxiety disorders are prevalent in older adults, randomized controlled trials of treatment effectiveness for late-life anxiety are scarce and have focused primarily on the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions. However, recent findings suggest that in some cases, pharmacological treatment may be more beneficial for late-life anxiety disorders. As yet, there have been no systematic studies investigating prognostic factors for the outcome of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and pharmacotherapy for late-life anxiety. The objective of the present study was to study long-term treatment outcomes and to explore differential predictors for both short-term and long-term treatment outcomes of sertraline and CBT for late-life anxiety disorders. Participants of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing sertraline and CBT for the treatment of late-life anxiety were contacted one year after completing their treatment, so that predictors for both short-term and long-term treatment outcome could be established. Sertraline showed a greater reduction of symptoms than CBT on anxiety (Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale; HARS) and worry (Worry Domain Questionnaire) ratings at one-year follow-up. The strongest predictor for short-term CBT outcome was poor perceived health, explaining 40% of the variance in post-treatment residual gain scores on the HARS. The strongest predictor for long-term CBT outcome was neuroticism, explaining 20% of the variance in residual gain scores at one-year follow-up. Analyses revealed no significant predictors for treatment outcome in sertraline participants. Our study suggests that long-term use of sertraline might be more beneficial for late-life anxiety than a 15-week CBT program. Poor perceived health and neuroticism are predictive of less improvement after CBT in anxious older adults. Implications of these findings are discussed.

  8. Low immediate postoperative serum-cortisol nadir predicts the short-term, but not long-term, remission after pituitary surgery for Cushing's disease.

    PubMed

    Ramm-Pettersen, Jon; Halvorsen, Helene; Evang, Johan Arild; Rønning, Pål; Hol, Per Kristian; Bollerslev, Jens; Berg-Johnsen, Jon; Helseth, Eirik

    2015-10-25

    Cushing's disease is an ACTH-producing pituitary adenoma, and the primary treatment is microscopic or endoscopic transsphenoidal selective adenectomy. The aims of the present study were to evaluate whether the early postoperative S-cortisol level can serve as a prognostic marker for short- and long-term remission, and retrospectively review our own short and long term results after surgery for Cushing's disease. This single centre, retrospective study consists of 19 consecutive patients with Cushing's disease who underwent transsphenoidal surgery. S-cortisol was measured every 6 h after the operation without any glucocorticoid replacement. We have follow-up on all patients, with a mean follow-up of 68 months. At the three-month follow-up, 16 patients (84 %) were in remission; at 12 months, 18 (95 %) were in remission and at the final follow-up (mean 68 months), 13 (68 %) were in remission. Five-years recurrence rate was 26 %. The mean postoperative S-cortisol nadir was significantly lower in the group of patients in remission than in the non-remission group at 3 months, but there was no difference between those in long-term remission compared to those in long-term non-remission. The optimal cut-off value for classifying 3-month remission was 74 nmol/l. We achieved a 95 % 1-year remission rate with transsphenoidal surgery for Cushing's disease in this series of consecutive patients. However, the 5-year recurrence rate was 26 %, showing the need for regular clinical and biochemical controls in this patient group. The mean postoperative serum-cortisol nadir was significantly lower in patients in remission at 3 months compared to patients not in remission at 3 months, but a low postoperative S-cortisol did not predict long-term remission.

  9. Predictive factors of long-term colorectal cancer survival after ultrasound-controlled ablation of hepatic metastases.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Socorro, Carmen Rosa; Saavedra, Pedro; Ramírez Felipe, José; Bohn Sarmiento, Uriel; Ruiz-Santana, Sergio

    2017-04-21

    The risk factors associated to long-term survival were assessed in patients with liver metastases of colorectal carcinoma undergoing ablative therapies. Single-centre cohort study, retrospectively analysed and prospectively collected consecutive patients with unresectable metastatic liver disease of colorectal carcinoma treated with ablative therapies between 1996 and 2013. Factors associated with survival time were identified using Cox's proportional hazard model with time-dependent covariates. A forward variable selection based on Akaike information criterion was performed. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals for each factor were calculated. Statistical significance was set as P<.05. Seventy-five patients with liver metastases of colorectal cancer, with a mean age of 65.6 (10.3) underwent 106 treatments. Variables selected were good quality of life (RR 0.308, 95% CI 0.150-0.632) and tumour extension (RR 3.070, 95% CI 1.776-5.308). The median overall survival was 18.5 months (95% CI 17.4-24.4). The survival prognosis in median was 13.5 vs. 23.4 months for patients with and without tumour extension, and 23.0 vs. 12.8 months for patients with good and fair or poor quality of life, respectively. Good quality of life and tumour extension were the only statistically significant predictors of long-term survival in patients of colorectal carcinoma with liver metastatic disease undergoing ablative treatment with ultrasound. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of the long-term performance of crystalline nuclear waste form phases from studies of mineral analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Lumpkin, G.R.; Smith, K.L.; Blackford, M.G.

    1994-12-31

    This investigation outlines the use of natural analogues as a means of assessing the long-term performance of actinide host phases in crystalline nuclear waste forms. We employed several analytical techniques to study the mineral zirconolite, an important actinide host phase in Synroc and tailored ceramics. The following conclusions were reached: (1) Natural zirconolite experiences a crystalline to aperiodic transformation at doses of approximately 10{sup 15} to 10{sup 16} {alpha}/ma (0.08-1.0 dpa), consistent with the results of accelerated damage testing on synthetic zirconolite. (2) Damage microstructures are consistent with the accumulation and overlap of alpha-recoil collision cascades, resulting in aperiodic domains which increase in volume as a function of dose. (3) There is evidence for long-term annealing of alpha-recoil damage in zirconolite at a rate 2-5 times slower than in the structurally related mineral pyrochlore. (4) Analysis of data from the only documented natural zirconolites to show hydrothermal alteration [resulting from F- and P-rich aqueous fluids at T = 500-600{degrees}C and P = 2 kb, Giere and Williams (14)], suggests that Th and U were released to the fluid phase. (5) The effects of low temperature alteration of radiation damaged zirconolite by a Si-rich ground water or fluid phase were identified in the oldest (2.5 x 10{sup 9} yr) sample in our research collection. Alteration involved incorporation of Si along microfractures at the expense of Ca, Ti, and Fe, but Tb and U remained immobile. In this same sample, there is evidence for migration of at least 50% of the radiogenic Pb from both unaltered and altered areas of zirconolite. Most of the Pb may have been retained within the sample as fine precipitates of galena (PbS).

  11. Feeding Methods at Discharge Predict Long-Term Feeding and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes in Preterm Infants Referred for Gastrostomy Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Jadcherla, Sudarshan R; Khot, Tanvi; Moore, Rebecca; Malkar, Manish; Gulati, Ish K; Slaughter, Jonathan L

    2017-02-01

    To test the hypothesis that oral feeding at first neonatal intensive care unit discharge is associated with less neurodevelopmental impairment and better feeding milestones compared with discharge with a gastrostomy tube (G-tube). We studied outcomes for a retrospective cohort of 194 neonates <37 weeks' gestation referred for evaluation and management of feeding difficulties between July 2006 and July 2012. Discharge milestones, length of hospitalization, and Bayley Scales of Infant Development-Third Edition scores at 18-24 months were examined. χ(2), Mann-Whitney U, or t tests and multivariable logistic regression models were used. A total of 60% (n = 117) of infants were discharged on oral feedings; of these, 96% remained oral-fed at 1 year. The remaining 40% (n = 77) were discharged on G-tube feedings; of these, 31 (40%) remained G-tube dependent, 17 (22%) became oral-fed, and 29 (38%) were on oral and G-tube feedings at 1 year. Infants discharged on a G-tube had lower cognitive (P <.01), communication (P = .03), and motor (P <.01) composite scores. The presence of a G-tube, younger gestation, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or intraventricular hemorrhage was associated significantly with neurodevelopmental delay. For infants referred for feeding concerns, G-tube evaluations, and feeding management, the majority did not require a G-tube. Full oral feeding at first neonatal intensive care unit discharge was associated with superior feeding milestones and less long-term neurodevelopmental impairment, relative to full or partial G-tube feeding. Evaluation and feeding management before and after G-tube placement may improve long-term feeding and neurodevelopmental outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long-term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Xu, Cheng-Yuan; Rastetter, Edward B; Griffin, Kevin L

    2014-06-01

    The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well-understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (RL/RD), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both RL and RD acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana, both RL and RD responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of RL and RD to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance.

  13. Predicting dislocation climb and creep from explicit atomistic details.

    PubMed

    Kabir, Mukul; Lau, Timothy T; Rodney, David; Yip, Sidney; Van Vliet, Krystyn J

    2010-08-27

    Here we report kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of dislocation climb in heavily deformed, body-centered cubic iron comprising a supersaturation of vacancies. This approach explicitly incorporates the effect of nonlinear vacancy-dislocation interaction on vacancy migration barriers as determined from atomistic calculations, and enables observations of diffusivity and climb over time scales and temperatures relevant to power-law creep. By capturing the underlying microscopic physics, the calculated stress exponents for steady-state creep rates agree quantitatively with the experimentally measured range, and qualitatively with the stress dependence of creep activation energies.

  14. Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D; Larson, Timothy V; Keller, Joshua P; Kaufman, Joel D

    2017-01-01

    Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction

  15. Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Keller, Joshua P.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. Objectives: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children’s Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). Results: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84–0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00–0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Conclusions: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD

  16. Superiority of Serum Cystatin C Over Creatinine in Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis at Discharge From ICU.

    PubMed

    Ravn, Bo; Prowle, John R; Mårtensson, Johan; Martling, Claes-Roland; Bell, Max

    2017-09-01

    Renal outcomes after critical illness are seldom assessed despite strong correlation between chronic kidney disease and survival. Outside hospital, renal dysfunction is more strongly associated with mortality when assessed by serum cystatin C than by creatinine. The relationship between creatinine and longer term mortality might be particularly weak in survivors of critical illness. Retrospective observational cohort study. In 3,077 adult ICU survivors, we compared ICU discharge cystatin C and creatinine and their association with 1-year mortality. Exclusions were death within 72 hours of ICU discharge, ICU stay less than 24 hours, and end-stage renal disease. None. During ICU admission, serum cystatin C and creatinine diverged, so that by ICU discharge, almost twice as many patients had glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m when estimated from cystatin C compared with glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, 44% versus 26%. In 743 patients without acute kidney injury, where ICU discharge renal function should reflect ongoing baseline, discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine consistently overestimated follow-up glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, whereas ICU discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from cystatin C well matched follow-up chronic kidney disease status. By 1 year, 535 (17.4%) had died. In survival analysis adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity, cystatin C was near-linearly associated with increased mortality, hazard ratio equals to 1.78 (95% CI, 1.46-2.18), 75th versus 25th centile. Conversely, creatinine demonstrated a J-shaped relationship with mortality, so that in the majority of patients, there was no significant association with survival, hazard ratio equals to 1.03 (0.87-1.2), 75th versus 25th centile. After adjustment for both creatinine and cystatin C levels, higher discharge creatinine was then associated with lower long-term mortality. In contrast to creatinine

  17. Biochemical Response to Androgen Deprivation Therapy Before External Beam Radiation Therapy Predicts Long-term Prostate Cancer Survival Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Zelefsky, Michael J.; Gomez, Daniel R.; Polkinghorn, William R.; Pei, Xin; Kollmeier, Marisa

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the response to neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) defined by a decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to nadir values is associated with improved survival outcomes after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: One thousand forty-five patients with localized prostate cancer were treated with definitive EBRT in conjunction with neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. A 6-month course of ADT was used (3 months during the neoadjuvant phase and 2 to 3 months concurrently with EBRT). The median EBRT prescription dose was 81 Gy using a conformal-based technique. The median follow-up time was 8.5 years. Results: The 10-year PSA relapse-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 74.3%, compared with 57.7% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P<.001). The 10-year distant metastases-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 86.1%, compared with 78.6% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P=.004). In a competing-risk analysis, prostate cancer-related deaths were also significantly reduced among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of <0.3 ng/mL compared with higher values (7.8% compared with 13.7%; P=.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the pre-EBRT PSA nadir value was a significant predictor of long-term biochemical tumor control, distant metastases-free survival, and cause-specific survival outcomes. Conclusions: Pre-radiation therapy nadir PSA values of ≤0.3 ng/mL after neoadjuvant ADT were associated with improved long-term biochemical tumor control, reduction in distant metastases, and prostate cancer-related death. Patients with higher nadir values may require alternative adjuvant therapies to improve outcomes.

  18. Long-term prediction of groundwater recharge by climate changes in the Gosan agricultural area, Jeju Island of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, E. H.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluation of long-term changes in groundwater recharge due to the climate changes is needed to secure the sustainable use of grounwater. In Jeju Island, which is composed of various formations of porous volcanic rocks, groundwater is a sole resource for water supply because of its hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, preservation of the groundwater resource is an essential issue in the island. Prior to establishing a management plan for maintaining the groundwater resources in Jeju Island, long-term estimation of influencing factors are necessary. The Gosan study area is located in the western part of the island, where extensive agricultural activity has been performed and groundwater is a main source of supply for watering crops. In this study, we estimated the recharge changes for 100 years (2000~2099) in the Gosan agricultural area based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) by using the HELP3 (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) program. The estimated component of water budget in this study are as follows (averaged in 2000~2014), precipitation: 1.28x108 m3/yr; ET: 6.49x107 m3/yr; runoff: 5.84x106 m3/yr; and recharge: 5.27x107 m3/yr. Over the 100 years of the estimated period, precipitation will have a highest increase among other meteorological parameters to be 6.16x109 m3 (RCP4.5) and 6.34 x109 m3 (RCP8.5). Increase in recharge by RCP8.5 scenario (2.75 x109 m3) will be less than that by RCP4.5 (2.77x109 m3) because ET by RCP 8.5 (ET: 3.34x109 m3; runoff: 2.27x108 m3) is estimated to be higher than ET by RCP4.5 (ET: 3.15x109 m3; runoff: 2.35x108 m3). Jeju volcanic island is known to have higher recharge proportions to the precipitation due to the distributed highly porous volcanic rocks. Therefore, variations in precipitation by climate changes would greatly affect the groundwater resource of the island. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for

  19. Quality of life independently predicts long-term mortality but not vascular events: the Northern Manhattan Study.

    PubMed

    Liang, John W; Cheung, Ying Kuen; Willey, Joshua Z; Moon, Yeseon P; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Dhamoon, Mandip S

    2017-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality, and prevention relies on accurate identification of those at risk. Studies of the association between quality of life (QOL) and mortality and vascular events incompletely accounted for depression, cognitive status, social support, and functional status, all of which have an impact on vascular outcomes. We hypothesized that baseline QOL is independently associated with long-term mortality in a large, multi-ethnic urban cohort. In the prospective, population-based Northern Manhattan Study, Spitzer QOL index (SQI, range 0-10, with ten signifying the highest QOL) was assessed at baseline. Participants were followed over a median 11 years for stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and vascular and non-vascular death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (HR, 95% CI) for each outcome, with SQI as the main predictor, dichotomized at 10, adjusting for baseline demographics, vascular risk factors, history of cancer, social support, cognitive status, depression, and functional status. Among 3298 participants, mean age was 69.7 + 10.3 years; 1795 (54.5%) had SQI of 10. In fully adjusted models, SQI of 10 (compared to SQI <10) was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.90), vascular death (0.81, 0.69-0.97), non-vascular death (0.78, 0.67-0.91), and stroke or MI or death (0.82, 0.74-0.91). In fully adjusted competing risk models, there was no association with stroke (0.93, 0.74-1.17), MI (0.98, 0.75-1.28), and stroke or MI (1.03, 0.86-1.24). Results were consistent when SQI was analyzed continuously. In this large population-based cohort, highest QOL was inversely associated with long-term mortality, vascular and non-vascular, independently of baseline primary vascular risk factors, social support, cognition, depression, and functional status. QOL was not associated with non-fatal vascular events.

  20. Metabolic syndrome predicts long-term mortality in subjects without established diabetes mellitus in asymptomatic Korean population

    PubMed Central

    Won, Ki-Bum; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Han, Donghee; Sung, Jidong; Choi, Su-Yeon

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Despite the different features of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Asian populations compared with Western populations, the impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on long-term mortality according to DM status has not yet been elucidated in the Asian population. After performing 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) using clinical variables including age, gender, smoking, and individual MetS components between DM and non-DM subjects from the data of the Korea Initiatives on Coronary Artery Calcification registry, mortality was evaluated according to DM and MetS in 14,956 asymptomatic Korean subjects. The mean follow-up duration was 53.1 months (interquartile range: 33–80). The overall prevalence of MetS was 60%. DM subjects had higher mortality compared with non-DM subjects (1.2% vs 0.7%, respectively; P = 0.001); the cumulative mortality by Kaplan–Meier analysis was higher in DM subjects than in non-DM subjects (log-rank P = 0.001). DM increased the risk of mortality in PSM participants (hazard ratio [HR] 1.74; P = 0.001). In non-DM subjects, MetS (HR 2.32) and one of its components, central obesity (HR 1.97), were associated with an increased risk of mortality (both P < 0.05). In contrast, there was no significant difference in the risk of mortality according to MetS or its components in DM subjects. After adjusting for confounding risk factors, it was shown that MetS independently increased the risk of mortality in non-DM subjects. Compared with non-DM subjects, DM subjects have an increased risk of long-term mortality among PSM participants. MetS appears to have an independent impact on mortality in subjects without established DM among the asymptomatic Korean population. Our results may not be applicable to the whole subjects with MetS because the PSM using MetS components was performed between subjects with and without DM which was very high risk for adverse clinical events. PMID:27930521

  1. Increase in posterior alpha activity during rehearsal predicts successful long-term memory formation of word sequences.

    PubMed

    Meeuwissen, Esther B; Takashima, Atsuko; Fernández, Guillén; Jensen, Ole

    2011-12-01

    It is becoming increasingly clear that demanding cognitive tasks rely on an extended network engaging task-relevant areas and, importantly, disengaging task-irrelevant areas. Given that alpha activity (8-12 Hz) has been shown to reflect the disengagement of task-irrelevant regions in attention and working memory tasks, we here ask if alpha activity plays a related role for long-term memory formation. Subjects were instructed to encode and maintain the order of word sequences while the ongoing brain activity was recorded using magnetoencephalography (MEG). In each trial, three words were presented followed by a 3.4 s rehearsal interval. Considering the good temporal resolution of MEG this allowed us to investigate the word presentation and rehearsal interval separately. The sequences were grouped in trials where word order either could be tested immediately (working memory trials; WM) or later (LTM trials) according to instructions. Subjects were tested on their ability to retrieve the order of the three words. The data revealed that alpha power in parieto-occipital regions was lower during word presentation compared to rehearsal. Our key finding was that parieto-occipital alpha power during the rehearsal period was markedly stronger for successfully than unsuccessfully encoded LTM sequences. This subsequent memory effect demonstrates that high posterior alpha activity creates an optimal brain state for successful LTM formation possibly by actively reducing parieto-occipital activity that might interfere with sequence encoding.

  2. Righting Reflex Predicts Long-Term Histological and Behavioral Outcomes in a Closed Head Model of Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Grin’kina, Natalia M.; Li, Yang; Haber, Margalit; Sangobowale, Michael; Nikulina, Elena; Le’Pre, Charm; El Sehamy, Alexander M.; Dugue, Rachelle; Ho, Johnson S.

    2016-01-01

    Blunt impact produces a heterogeneous brain injury in people and in animal models of traumatic brain injury. We report that a single closed head impact to adult C57/BL6 mice produced two injury syndromes (CHI-1 and CHI-2). CHI-1 mice spontaneously reinitiated breathing after injury while CHI-2 mice had prolonged apnea and regained breathing only after cardiopulmonary resuscitation and supplementation of 100% O2. The CHI-1 group significantly regained righting reflex more rapidly than the CHI-2 group. At 7 days post-injury, CHI-1, but not CHI-2 mice, acquired but had no long-term retention of an active place avoidance task. The behavioral deficits of CHI-1 and CHI-2 mice were retained one-month after the injury. CHI-1 mice had loss of hippocampal neurons and localized white matter injury at one month after injury. CHI-2 had a larger loss of hippocampal neurons and more widespread loss of myelin and axons. High-speed videos made during the injury were followed by assessment of breathing and righting reflex. These videos show that CHI-2 mice experienced a larger vertical g-force than CHI-1 mice. Time to regain righting reflex in CHI-2 mice significantly correlated with vertical g-force. Thus, physiological responses occurring immediately after injury can be valuable surrogate markers of subsequent behavioral and histological deficits. PMID:27657499

  3. Long Term Prognosis

    MedlinePlus

    ... TERM PROGNOSIS The long-term outlook of pediatric cardiomyopathy continues to be unpredictable because it occurs with ... a child also depends on the type of cardiomyopathy and the stage the disease is first diagnosed. ...

  4. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

  5. Cerebrospinal fluid markers of neuronal and glial cell damage to monitor disease activity and predict long-term outcome in patients with autoimmune encephalitis.

    PubMed

    Constantinescu, R; Krýsl, D; Bergquist, F; Andrén, K; Malmeström, C; Asztély, F; Axelsson, M; Menachem, E B; Blennow, K; Rosengren, L; Zetterberg, H

    2016-04-01

    Clinical symptoms and long-term outcome of autoimmune encephalitis are variable. Diagnosis requires multiple investigations, and treatment strategies must be individually tailored. Better biomarkers are needed for diagnosis, to monitor disease activity and to predict long-term outcome. The value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of neuronal [neurofilament light chain protein (NFL), and total tau protein (T-tau)] and glial cell [glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)] damage in patients with autoimmune encephalitis was investigated. Demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, CSF and antibody-related data of 25 patients hospitalized for autoimmune encephalitis and followed for 1 year were retrospectively collected. Correlations between these data and consecutive CSF levels of NFL, T-tau and GFAP were investigated. Disability, assessed by the modified Rankin scale, was used for evaluation of disease activity and long-term outcome. The acute stage of autoimmune encephalitis was accompanied by high CSF levels of NFL and T-tau, whereas normal or significantly lower levels were observed after clinical improvement 1 year later. NFL and T-tau reacted in a similar way but at different speeds, with T-tau reacting faster. CSF levels of GFAP were initially moderately increased but did not change significantly later on. Final outcome (disability at 1 year) directly correlated with CSF-NFL and CSF-GFAP levels at all time-points and with CSF-T-tau at 3 ± 1 months. This correlation remained significant after age adjustment for CSF-NFL and T-tau but not for GFAP. In autoimmune encephalitis, CSF levels of neuronal and glial cell damage markers appear to reflect disease activity and long-term disability. © 2016 EAN.

  6. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  7. An alternative to fully coupled reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in complex geological systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Fully-coupled reactive transport simulations involving multiphase hydrodynamics and chemical reactions in heterogeneous settings are extremely challenging from a computational point of view. This often leads to oversimplification of the investigated system: coarse spatial discretization, to keep the number of elements in the order of few thousands; simplified chemistry, disregarding many potentially important reactions. A novel approach for coupling non-reactive hydrodynamic simulations with the outcome of single batch geochemical simulations was therefore introduced to assess the potential long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for underground CO2 storage in Germany [1],[2]. The advantage of the coupling is the ability to use multi-million grid non-reactive hydrodynamics simulations on one side and few batch 0D geochemical simulations on the other, so that the complexity of both systems does not need to be reduced. This contribution shows the approach which was taken to validate this simplified coupling scheme. The procedure involved batch simulations of the reference geochemical model, then performing both non-reactive and fully coupled 1D and 3D reactive transport simulations and finally applying the simplified coupling scheme based on the non-reactive and geochemical batch model. The TOUGHREACT/ECO2N [3] simulator was adopted for the validation. The degree of refinement of the spatial grid and the complexity and velocity of the mineral reactions, along with a cut-off value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 allowed to originate precipitates in the simplified approach were found out to be the governing parameters for the convergence of the two schemes. Systematic discrepancies between the approaches are not reducible, simply because there is no feedback between chemistry and hydrodynamics, and can reach 20 % - 30 % in unfavourable cases. However, even such discrepancy is completely acceptable, in our opinion, given the amount of

  8. Impaired Global Right Ventricular Longitudinal Strain Predicts Long-Term Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jae-Hyeong; Park, Margaret M.; Farha, Samar; Sharp, Jacqueline; Lundgrin, Erika; Comhair, Suzy; Tang, Wai Hong; Erzurum, Serpil C.

    2015-01-01

    Background New 2-dimensional strain echocardiography enables quantification of right ventricular (RV) mechanics by assessing global longitudinal strain of RV (GLSRV) in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, the prognostic significance of impaired GLSRV is unclear in these patients. Methods Comprehensive echocardiography was performed in 51 consecutive PAH patients without atrial fibrillation (40 females, 48 ± 14 years old) with long-term follow-up. GLSRV was measured with off-line with velocity vector imaging (VVI, Siemens Medical System, Mountain View, CA, USA). Results GLSRV showed significant correlation with RV fractional area change (r = -0.606, p < 0.001), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (r = -0.579, p < 0.001), and RV Tei index (r = 0.590, p < 0.001). It showed significant correlations with pulmonary vascular resistance (r = 0.469, p = 0.001) and B-natriuretic peptide concentration (r = 0.351, p = 0.012). During a clinical followup time (45 ± 15 months), 20 patients experienced one or more adverse events (12 death, 2 lung transplantation, and 15 heart failure hospitalization). After multivariate analysis, age [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.343, p = 0.040] and GLSRV (HR = 2.122, p = 0.040) were associated with adverse clinical events. Age (HR = 3.200, p = 0.016) and GLSRV (HR = 2.090, p = 0.042) were also significant predictors of death. Impaired GLSRV (≥ -15.5%) was associated with lower event-free survival (HR = 4.906, p = 0.001) and increased mortality (HR = 8.842, p = 0.005). Conclusion GLSRV by VVI showed significant correlations with conventional echocardiographic parameters indicating RV systolic function. Lower GLSRV (≥ -15.5%) was significantly associated with presence of adverse clinical events and deaths in PAH patients. PMID:26140151

  9. Insomnia predicts long-term all-cause mortality after acute myocardial infarction: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Condén, Emelie; Rosenblad, Andreas

    2016-07-15

    Sleep impairment such as insomnia is an established risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of the current study was to examine the association between insomnia and all-cause mortality among AMI patients. This prospective cohort study used data on n=732 patients recruited from September 2006 to May 2011 as part of the Västmanland Myocardial Infarction Study (VaMIS), a prospective cohort study of AMI patients living in Västmanland County, Sweden. Participants were followed up for all-cause mortality until December 9, 2015. The outcome of interest was time-to-death (TTD), with the presence of insomnia being the risk factor of main interest. Data were analyzed using a piecewise Cox regression model with change point for insomnia at two years of follow-up, adjusted for socioeconomic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors. In total, n=175 (23.9%) of the participants suffered from insomnia. During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.0 (2.5) years (4392person-years), a total of n=231 (31.6%) participants died, n=77 (44.0%) in the insomnia group and n=154 (27.6%) in the non-insomnia group (log-rank test p<0.001). In a multiple adjusted piecewise Cox regression model, insomnia did not imply a higher risk of death during the first two years after AMI (HR 0.849; 95% CI 0.508-1.421; p=0.534). During the period after the first two years, however, insomnia implied a 1.6 times higher risk of death (HR 1.597; 95% CI 1.090-2.341; p=0.016). Insomnia implies a higher risk of death among AMI patients in the long term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting institutional long-term care admission in dementia: a mixed-methods study of informal caregivers' reports.

    PubMed

    Afram, Basema; Verbeek, Hilde; Bleijlevens, Michel H C; Challis, David; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Karlsson, Staffan; Soto, Maria E; Renom-Guiteras, Anna; Saks, Kai; Zabalegui, Adelaida; Hamers, Jan P H

    2015-06-01

    To investigate agreement between: (1) expected reasons and actual reasons for admission of people with dementia according to informal caregivers; (2) scores on measurement instruments prior to admission and the actual reasons for admission according to informal caregivers. Timely admission of people with dementia is a crucial issue. Information is highly warranted on whether informal caregivers are capable of prior identification of causes of admission and, can thus be considered a reliable prospective source on causes of admission. A cohort study among informal caregivers of people with dementia who made a transition to institutional long-term care. Qualitative data on the expected and actual reasons for admission were collected via open-ended questions at baseline and follow-up. Furthermore, at baseline, data were collected using measurement instruments to measure pre-admission characteristics. Interviews took place between November 2010-April 2012. After categorizing the answers, the agreement between the expected and actual reasons was calculated. Furthermore, bivariate associations were calculated between the actual reasons for admission and scores on corresponding measurement instruments. For most informal caregivers, there was agreement between their statements on the expected reason and the actual reason for admission. A third of the caregivers showed no conformity. Bivariate associations showed that there is also agreement between the actual reasons for admission and scores on corresponding measurement instruments. Informal caregivers can be considered reliable sources of information regarding what causes the admission of a person with dementia. Professional care should anticipate informal caregivers' statements and collaborate with them to strive for timely and appropriate admission. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

  12. A Meta-analysis to Evaluate the Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment in Long-term Care.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Shen, Wang-Qin; Liu, Peng

    2016-09-01

    Although it is among the most commonly used pressure ulcer risk assessment tools, the Braden Scale may lack strong predictive validity when used in the long-term care setting. A meta-analysis was conducted of English-language articles published in the PubMed database and Web of Science from the indices' inception through July 2015 to assess the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. Search terms included pressure ulcer, pressure sore, bedsore, decubitus, long-term care, nursing home, skilled nursing facility, hospice, and Braden. Data extracted from the publications included sample and setting characteristics and predictive value indices. The pooled sensitivities, specificities, diagnostic odds ratios (DOR), and constructed summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were calculated. Eight studies (2 prospective cohorts and 6 cross-sectional studies) with 41 489 residents met selection criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79-0.81) and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.42-0.43), respectively, yielding a combined DOR of 5.66 (95% CI: 3.77-8.48). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.7686 ± 0.0478 (95% CI: 0.6749-0.8623), and the overall diagnostic accuracy (Q*) was 0.7090 ± 0.0402 (95% CI: 0.6302-0.7878). Significant heterogeneity was noted among the included studies; Q value was 302.54 (P = 0.000), and I2 for pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and pooled DOR was 97.4%, 98.7% and 96.4%, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed no heterogeneity was noted among Braden scale cut-offs (P = 0.123) and pressure ulcer prevalence P = 0.547). The evidence showed the Braden Scale has moderate predictive validity and low predictive specificity for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. The development and testing of new risk assessment scales for this population is warranted.

  13. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record

  14. Combined baseline strain dyssynchrony index and its acute reduction predicts mid-term left ventricular reverse remodeling and long-term outcome after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, Kazuhiro; Tanaka, Hidekazu; Matsumoto, Kensuke; Miyoshi, Tatsuya; Hiraishi, Mana; Tsuji, Takayuki; Kaneko, Akihiro; Ryo, Keiko; Fukuda, Yuko; Norisada, Kazuko; Onishi, Tetsuari; Yoshida, Akihiro; Kawai, Hiroya; Hirata, Ken-ichi

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that combining assessment of baseline radial strain dyssynchrony index (SDI), that expressed both left ventricular (LV) dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, and of acute changes in this index can yield more accurate prediction of mid-term responders and long-term outcome after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Radial SDI for 75 CRT patients was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic speckle tracking strain from 6 segments of the mid-LV short-axis view before and 8 ± 2 days after CRT. Mid-term responder was defined as ≥ 15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6 ± 2 months after CRT. Long-term outcome was tracked over 5 years. Baseline radial SDI ≥ 6.5% is considered predictive of responder and favorable outcome, as previously reported. Acute reduction in radial SDI ≥ 1.5% was found to be the best predictor of mid-term responders with CRT. Furthermore, patients with acute reductions in radial SDI ≥1.5% were associated with a significantly more favorable long-term outcome after CRT than those with radial SDI <1.5% (log rank P < 0.001). An important findings were that baseline radial SDI ≥6.5% and acute reductions in radial SDI ≥ 1.5% in 42 patients were associated with the highest event-free survival rate of 92%, whereas, 21 patients corresponding values of <6.5% and <1.5% were associated with low event-free survival rate of 46% (log rank P < 0.001). Combined assessment of baseline radial SDI and its acute reduction after CRT may have clinical implications for predicting responders and thus patients' care.

  15. Predicting long-term neurological outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy: A comparison of the CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models.

    PubMed

    Honeybul, Stephen; Ho, Kwok M

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term neurological outcomes after severe traumatic brain (TBI) is important, but which prognostic model in the context of decompressive craniectomy has the best performance remains uncertain. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients who had severe TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy between 2004 and 2014, in the two neurosurgical centres in Perth, Western Australia. Severe disability, vegetative state, or death were defined as unfavourable neurological outcomes. Area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) and slope and intercept of the calibration curve were used to assess discrimination and calibration of the CRASH (Corticosteroid-Randomisation-After-Significant-Head injury) and IMPACT (International-Mission-For-Prognosis-And-Clinical-Trial) models, respectively. Of the 319 patients included in the study, 119 (37%) had unfavourable neurological outcomes at 18-month after decompressive craniectomy for severe TBI. Both CRASH (AUROC 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.90) and IMPACT full-model (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.89) were similar in discriminating between favourable and unfavourable neurological outcome at 18-month after surgery (p=0.690 for the difference in AUROC derived from the two models). Although both models tended to over-predict the risks of long-term unfavourable outcome, the IMPACT model had a slightly better calibration than the CRASH model (intercept of the calibration curve=-4.1 vs. -5.7, and log likelihoods -159 vs. -360, respectively), especially when the predicted risks of unfavourable outcome were <80%. Both CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models were good in discriminating between favourable and unfavourable long-term neurological outcome for patients with severe TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy, but the calibration of the IMPACT full-model was better than the CRASH model. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Pre-treatment minority HIV-1 drug resistance mutations and long term virological outcomes: is prediction possible?

    PubMed

    Mzingwane, M L; Tiemessen, C T; Richter, K L; Mayaphi, S H; Hunt, G; Bowyer, S M

    2016-10-12

    Although the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV positive individuals has proved to be effective in suppressing the virus to below detection limits of commonly used assays, virological failure associated with drug resistance is still a major challenge in some settings. The prevalence and effect of pre-treatment resistance associated variants on virological outcomes may also be underestimated because of reliance on conventional population sequencing data which excludes minority species. We investigated long term virological outcomes and the prevalence and pattern of pre-treatment minority drug resistance mutations in individuals initiating HAART at a local HIV clinic. Patient's records of viral load results and CD4 cell counts from routine treatment monitoring were used and additional pre-treatment blood samples for Sanger sequencing were obtained. A selection of pre-treatment samples from individuals who experienced virological failure were evaluated for minority resistance associated mutations to 1 % prevalence and compared to individuals who achieved viral suppression. At least one viral load result after 6 months or more of treatment was available for 65 out of 78 individuals followed for up to 33 months. Twenty (30.8 %) of the 65 individuals had detectable viremia and eight (12.3 %) of them had virological failure (viral load > 1000 RNA copies/ml) after at least 6 months of HAART. Viral suppression, achieved by month 8 to month 13, was followed by low level viremia in 10.8 % of patients and virological failure in one patient after month 20. There was potentially reduced activity to Emtricitabine or Tenofovir in three out of the eight cases in which minority drug resistance associated variants were investigated but detectable viremia occurred in one of these cases while the activity of Efavirenz was generally reduced in all the eight cases. Early viral suppression was followed by low level viremia for some patients which may be an

  17. Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

    Treesearch

    Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

    2015-01-01

    Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

  18. The Differential Effects of Abuse Characteristics and Attachment in the Prediction of Long-Term Effects of Sexual Abuse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Pamela C.

    1993-01-01

    Female incest survivors (n=112) completed several inventories and checklists to measure sexual abuse severity and adult attachment. Analyses indicated that sexual abuse characteristics predicted depression, intrusive thoughts, and memory avoidance. Adult attachment, particularly a lack of secure attachment, predicted memory avoidance, and also…

  19. Pretransplant helper T-lymphocyte determination in bone marrow donors: acute graft-versus-host disease prediction and relation with long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Winandy, M; Lewalle, P; Deneys, V; Ferrant, A; De Bruyère, M

    1999-04-01

    Helper T-lymphocyte precursor (HTLp) frequency from 19 allogeneic bone marrow donors was tested to detect weak antigenic differences with the recipient, and then compared to the outcome. HTLp frequency was estimated in limiting dilution cultures, and HLA-DR and CD 80 expression by stimulating cells was measured by flow cytometry. 12/19 patients experienced acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) grade II-IV. A good correlation was found between high pretransplant HTLp frequency and grade II-IV aGVHD (median: 1/55848 PBMNC for II-IV GVHD versus 1/184346 for 0-I GVHD; P = 0.008). Sensitivity was 82%, specificity 63%, negative predictive value 71% and positive predictive value 75%. Long-term survivors also had a lower HTLp median frequency (1/143354) when compared with patients who died as a result of the transplant procedure (1/22100, P < 0.001). No correlation was found between HTLp frequency and HLA-DR or CD80 expression by patient's cells. We conclude that HTLp frequency estimation can predict, although poorly, acute GVHD risk and long-term survival.

  20. A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

    PubMed

    McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

  1. Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large-scale drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolai-Shaw, Nadine; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-08-01

    Here we investigate factors that influence the long lead time predictability of soil moisture variability using standard statistical methods. As predictors we first consider soil moisture persistence only, using two independent global soil moisture data sets. In a second step we include three teleconnection indices indicative of the main northern, tropical, and southern atmospheric modes, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). For many regions results show significant skill in predicting soil moisture variability with lead times up to 5 months. Soil moisture persistence plays a key role at monthly to subseasonal time scales. With increasing lead times large-scale atmospheric drivers become more important, and areas influenced by teleconnection indices show higher predictability. This long lead time predictability of soil moisture may help to improve early warning systems for important natural hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods.

  2. Inflammatory Activity on Natalizumab Predicts Short-Term but Not Long-Term Disability in Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Dahdaleh, Samer; Malik, Omar; Jones, Brynmor; Nicholas, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Background In people with multiple sclerosis treated with interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate, new MRI lesions and relapses during the first year of treatment predict a poor prognosis. Objective To study this association in those receiving natalizumab. Methods Data were collected on relapses, new MRI activity, and Modified Rio Score after initiation of natalizumab in an observational cohort of 161 patients with high baseline disability. These were correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression at years 1, 2, 3, and 3–7 after treatment initiation, versus pre-treatment baseline. Results 46/161 patients had a relapse in the first year and 44/161 had EDSS progression by year 2. Relapses and Modified Rio Score in the first year of treatment predicted EDSS progression at year 1 and 2 after treatment initiation. However, this effect disappeared with longer follow-up. Paradoxically, there was a trend towards inflammatory activity on treatment (first year Modified Rio Score, relapses, and MRI activity) predicting a lower risk of EDSS progression by years 3–7, although this did not reach statistical significance. Those with and without EDSS progression did not differ in baseline age, EDSS, or pre-treatment relapse rate. Relapses in year 0–1 predicted further relapses in years 1–3. Conclusions Breakthrough inflammatory activity after natalizumab treatment is predictive of short-term outcome measures of relapses or EDSS progression, but does not predict longer term EDSS progression, in this cohort with high baseline disability. PMID:28081190

  3. Inflammatory Activity on Natalizumab Predicts Short-Term but Not Long-Term Disability in Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Raffel, Joel; Gafson, Arie R; Dahdaleh, Samer; Malik, Omar; Jones, Brynmor; Nicholas, Richard

    2017-01-01

    In people with multiple sclerosis treated with interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate, new MRI lesions and relapses during the first year of treatment predict a poor prognosis. To study this association in those receiving natalizumab. Data were collected on relapses, new MRI activity, and Modified Rio Score after initiation of natalizumab in an observational cohort of 161 patients with high baseline disability. These were correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression at years 1, 2, 3, and 3-7 after treatment initiation, versus pre-treatment baseline. 46/161 patients had a relapse in the first year and 44/161 had EDSS progression by year 2. Relapses and Modified Rio Score in the first year of treatment predicted EDSS progression at year 1 and 2 after treatment initiation. However, this effect disappeared with longer follow-up. Paradoxically, there was a trend towards inflammatory activity on treatment (first year Modified Rio Score, relapses, and MRI activity) predicting a lower risk of EDSS progression by years 3-7, although this did not reach statistical significance. Those with and without EDSS progression did not differ in baseline age, EDSS, or pre-treatment relapse rate. Relapses in year 0-1 predicted further relapses in years 1-3. Breakthrough inflammatory activity after natalizumab treatment is predictive of short-term outcome measures of relapses or EDSS progression, but does not predict longer term EDSS progression, in this cohort with high baseline disability.

  4. The roles of self-efficacy and motivation in the prediction of short- and long-term adherence to exercise among patients with coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Slovinec D'Angelo, Monika E; Pelletier, Luc G; Reid, Robert D; Huta, Veronika

    2014-11-01

    Poor adherence to regular exercise is a documented challenge among people with heart disease. Identifying key determinants of exercise adherence and distinguishing between the processes driving short- and long-term adherence to regular exercise is a valuable endeavor. The purpose of the present study was to test a model of exercise behavior change, which incorporates motivational orientations and self-efficacy for exercise behavior, in the prediction of short- and long-term exercise adherence. Male and female patients (N = 801) hospitalized for coronary heart disease were recruited from 3 tertiary care cardiac centers and followed for a period of 1 year after hospital discharge. A prospective, longitudinal design was used to examine the roles of motivation and self-efficacy (measured at recruitment and at 2 and 6 months after discharge) in the prediction of exercise behavior at 6 and 12 months. Baseline measures of exercise and clinical and demographic covariates were included in the analyses. Structural equation modeling showed that both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy were important determinants of short-term (6-month) exercise behavior regulation, but that only autonomous motivation remained a significant predictor of long-term (12-month) exercise behavior. Self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between motivation for exercise and 6-month exercise behavior. This research confirmed the roles of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy in the health behavior change process and emphasized the key function of autonomous motivation in exercise maintenance. Theoretical and cardiac rehabilitation program applications of this research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Ductility normalized-strainrange partitioning life relations for creep-fatigue life predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Saltsman, J. F.; Hirschberg, M. H.

    1977-01-01

    Procedures based on Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) are presented for estimating the effects of environment and other influences on the high temperature, low cycle, creep fatigue resistance of alloys. It is proposed that the plastic and creep, ductilities determined from conventional tensile and creep rupture tests conducted in the environment of interest be used in a set of ductility normalized equations for making a first order approximation of the four SRP inelastic strainrange life relations. Different levels of sophistication in the application of the procedures are presented by means of illustrative examples with several high temperature alloys. Predictions of cyclic lives generally agree with observed lives within factors of three.

  6. The ability of electrical measurements to predict skin moisturization. II. Correlation between one-hour measurements and long-term results.

    PubMed

    Li, F; Conroy, E; Visscher, M; Wickett, R R

    2001-01-01

    We investigated the ability of short-term (one-hour) electrical measurements with three different commonly used instruments to predict the effects of long-term treatment with glycerin-containing formulations on moderately dry leg skin. We report the moisturizing effects of glycerin on healthy female adult skin in a two-week study as measured by electrical conductance and capacitance, transepidermal water loss (TEWL), and clinical grading of skin dryness. The test formulations contained 1.5% NaCl and levels of glycerin from 0% to 15%. Results obtained with a smaller cohort of ten subjects, one hour after treatment, were predictive of moisturizing efficacy in the two-week period among twenty subjects with dry leg skin. Our results show that single application tests can be predictive of longer-term results with humectant-based moisturizers and that electrical measurements of skin conditions correlate well with skin grades.

  7. Correlation Factor Study of Small Punch Creep Test and Its Life Prediction.

    PubMed

    Wen, Cheng; Xu, Tong; Guan, Kaishu

    2016-09-24

    A small punch test is one of the innovative methods that can be used to evaluate the properties of a material without destructive harm to the in-service component. Conventionally identifying material properties by a uniaxial test is widely applied to engineering. How the properties obtained from a small punch test can be applied with the same utility has been a goal. In 2006, European Code of Practice (CoP) of small punch tests was first released, in which the correlation factor, ksp, was introduced to bridge the gap between the above methods. The author investigates the relationship between a uniaxial creep text and a small punch creep test by exploring the correlation factor ksp. Various sets of experiments and a comparative study of the conventional uniaxial creep test and small punch creep test were carried out. Methods including Norton, Larson-Miller and Time versus Stress relation were employed to identify the value of ksp. Different ksp values were found in different materials, which indicate that ksp values of materials need to be identified separately. In addition, the life prediction of a small punch creep test was carried out and the results of the life prediction predict a reasonable accuracy, which indicates that the small punch creep test is a reliable method for life prediction.

  8. Correlation Factor Study of Small Punch Creep Test and Its Life Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Cheng; Xu, Tong; Guan, Kaishu

    2016-01-01

    A small punch test is one of the innovative methods that can be used to evaluate the properties of a material without destructive harm to the in-service component. Conventionally identifying material properties by a uniaxial test is widely applied to engineering. How the properties obtained from a small punch test can be applied with the same utility has been a goal. In 2006, European Code of Practice (CoP) of small punch tests was first released, in which the correlation factor, ksp, was introduced to bridge the gap between the above methods. The author investigates the relationship between a uniaxial creep text and a small punch creep test by exploring the correlation factor ksp. Various sets of experiments and a comparative study of the conventional uniaxial creep test and small punch creep test were carried out. Methods including Norton, Larson-Miller and Time versus Stress relation were employed to identify the value of ksp. Different ksp values were found in different materials, which indicate that ksp values of materials need to be identified separately. In addition, the life prediction of a small punch creep test was carried out and the results of the life prediction predict a reasonable accuracy, which indicates that the small punch creep test is a reliable method for life prediction. PMID:28773917

  9. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients' medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients.

  10. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Snoeck-Stroband, Jiska B.; Lapperre, Therese S.; Sterk, Peter J.; Hiemstra, Pieter S.; Thiadens, Henk A.; Boezen, H. Marike; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; Postma, Dirkje S.; Timens, Wim; Sont, Jacob K.

    2015-01-01

    Background The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD. Methods Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), 30–80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III), age 45–75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid) or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20), and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study. Results Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04). Conclusions Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847 PMID:26659582

  11. Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to predict long term outcomes in children with autism spectrum disorders.

    PubMed

    Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L; Brewer, Neil

    2014-09-01

    This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS). Western Psychological Services, Los Angeles 1988), for long term outcomes of children with ASD engaged in an early intervention program. Participants were 55 children (44 male, 11 female) aged 19–42 months (M = 33.5, SD = 5.6) at initial assessment who were followed up 2 and 6 years after their initial assessment. The ADEC and the CARS performed similarly when predicting long term outcomes such as clinical diagnostic outcome and overall adaptive functioning level. However, only the ADEC score was significantly correlated with ASD symptom severity at the 6-year follow up. Although these findings need to be replicated with additional and larger samples, this study extends our understanding of the psychometric properties of both the ADEC and the CARS.

  12. Short term response is predictive of long term response to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in Alzheimer’s disease: A starting point to explore Bayesian approximation in clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    Rota, Eugenia; Ferrero, Patrizia; Ursone, Rita; Migliaretti, Giuseppe

    2007-01-01

    This study was aimed at identifying, in 203 patients with Alzheimer's disease followed during long-term treatment with Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs), the predictive factors of the clinical response among cognition (MMSE), functioning (BADL and IADL) measures and age and gender at the baseline (T0). The ANCOVA test showed a significant association between MMSE scores at time T0 and T3, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 and T21 to T0 of the MMSE scores, using also gender, age and drug as covariates. The significance was higher for the patients affected by mild dementia. Regarding functional activities, a significant relationship was detected, by the ANCOVA test, only between the scores at T3 and the variation T15 to T0 for BADL, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 for IADL, respectively. Our results confirm, in a real world setting, that ChEIs provide long-term cognitive benefit, which is correlated to, and predictable by, the short-term response (within the third month) as well as the cognitive status (evaluated by means of the MMSE) at the beginning of the treatment. These factors should be the basis of any cost/effectiveness algorithm in health economic decision models. PMID:18188418

  13. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C.

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals’ nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons ‘on the move’, as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  14. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-06-13

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play.

  15. Long-term fluctuations of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria, Scyphomedusa) in the western Mediterranean Sea. Prediction by climatic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goy, Jacquelinn; Morand, Pierre; Etienne, Michéle

    1989-02-01

    The archives of the Station Zoologique at Villefranche-sur-Mer contain records of "years with Pelagia noctiluca" and 'years without Pelagia". These records, plus additional data, indicate that over the past 200 years (1785-1985) outburst of Pelagia have occured about every 12 years. Using a forecasting model, climatic variables, notably temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure, appear to predict "years with Pelagia".

  16. Shrinking the Psoriasis Assessment Gap: Early Gene-Expression Profiling Accurately Predicts Response to Long-Term Treatment.

    PubMed

    Correa da Rosa, Joel; Kim, Jaehwan; Tian, Suyan; Tomalin, Lewis E; Krueger, James G; Suárez-Fariñas, Mayte

    2017-02-01

    There is an "assessment gap" between the moment a patient's response to treatment is biologically determined and when a response can actually be determined clinically. Patients' biochemical profiles are a major determinant of clinical outcome for a given treatment. It is therefore feasible that molecular-level patient information could be used to decrease the assessment gap. Thanks to clinically accessible biopsy samples, high-quality molecular data for psoriasis patients are widely available. Psoriasis is therefore an excellent disease for testing the prospect of predicting treatment outcome from molecular data. Our study shows that gene-expression profiles of psoriasis skin lesions, taken in the first 4 weeks of treatment, can be used to accurately predict (>80% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) the clinical endpoint at 12 weeks. This could decrease the psoriasis assessment gap by 2 months. We present two distinct prediction modes: a universal predictor, aimed at forecasting the efficacy of untested drugs, and specific predictors aimed at forecasting clinical response to treatment with four specific drugs: etanercept, ustekinumab, adalimumab, and methotrexate. We also develop two forms of prediction: one from detailed, platform-specific data and one from platform-independent, pathway-based data. We show that key biomarkers are associated with responses to drugs and doses and thus provide insight into the biology of pathogenesis reversion.

  17. Comparison of the predictions of one- and two-compartment microcomputer programs for long-term tobramycin therapy.

    PubMed

    Hatton, R C; Massey, K L; Russell, W L

    1984-01-01

    A retrospective study of patients receiving tobramycin compared the accuracy of predictions of actual trough serum concentrations using two commercially available microcomputer software programs. Twelve patients met the study criteria of intravenous tobramycin treatment for more than 10 days with serum concentration monitoring within the first 5 days and after 10 days of therapy. No patients received dialysis. Twenty-five serum concentrations were compared. Predictions within 0.2 microgram/ml were considered clinically "exact." No significant differences were found by chi-square analysis for any of the four possible choices (p less than 0.3). One of the programs, distributed by Dista Pharmaceuticals, offers a one-compartment model, a two-compartment model, and a two-compartment prenephrotoxic option. SIMKIN, a program marketed by Medical Engineering, Inc., uses a two-compartment model. Overall, the predictions errors were small, but occasionally were clinically significant. Further evaluation of microcomputer programs for therapeutic drug monitoring is necessary to document their impact on predicting drug efficacy and toxicity.

  18. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  19. Predictive models of long-term anatomic outcome in age-related macular degeneration treated with as-needed Ranibizumab.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Buendia, Lucia; Delgado-Tirado, Santiago; Sanabria, M Rosa; Fernandez, Itziar; Coco, Rosa M

    2017-08-18

    To analyze predictors and develop predictive models of anatomic outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with as-needed ranibizumab after 4 years of follow-up. A multicenter consecutive case series non-interventional study was performed. Clinical, funduscopic and OCT characteristics of 194 treatment-naïve patients with AMD treated with as-needed ranibizumab for at least 2 years and up to 4 years were analyzed at baseline, 3 months and each year until the end of the follow-up. Baseline demographic and angiographic characteristics were also evaluated. R Statistical Software was used for statistical analysis. Main outcome measure was final anatomic status. Factors associated with less probability of preserved macula were diagnosis in 2009, older age, worse vision, presence of atrophy/fibrosis, pigment epithelium detachment, and geographic atrophy/fibrotic scar/neovascular AMD in the fellow eye. Factors associated with higher probability of GA were presence of atrophy and greater number of injections, whereas male sex, worse vision, lesser change in central macular thickness and presence of fibrosis were associated with less probability of GA as final macular status. Predictive model of preserved macula vs. GA/fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 77.78% and specificity of 69.09%. Predictive model of GA vs. fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 68.89% and specificity of 72.22%. We identified predictors of final macular status, and developed two predictive models. Predictive models that we propose are based on easily harvested variables, and, if validated, could be a useful tool for individual patient management and clinical research studies.

  20. On the importance of coupled THM processes to predict the long-term response of a generic salt repository for high-level nuclear waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanco Martin, L.; Rutqvist, J.; Birkholzer, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Salt is a potential medium for the underground disposal of nuclear waste because it has several assets, in particular its ability to creep and heal fractures generated by excavation and its water and gas tightness in the undisturbed state. In this research, we focus on disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste (such as spent fuel) and we consider a generic salt repository with in-drift emplacement of waste packages and subsequent backfill of the drifts with run-of-mine crushed salt. As the natural salt creeps, the crushed salt backfill gets progressively compacted and an engineered barrier system is subsequently created. In order to evaluate the integrity of the natural and engineered barriers over the long-term, it is important to consider the coupled effects of the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes that take place. In particular, the results obtained so far show how the porosity reduction of the crushed salt affects the saturation and pore pressure evolution throughout the repository, both in time and space. Such compaction is induced by the stress and temperature regime within the natural salt. Also, transport properties of the host rock are modified not only by thermo-mechanically and hydraulically-induced damaged processes, but also by healing/sealing of existing fractures. In addition, the THM properties of the backfill evolve towards those of the natural salt during the compaction process. All these changes are based on dedicated laboratory experiments and on theoretical considerations [1-3]. Different scenarios are modeled and compared to evaluate the relevance of different processes from the perspective of effective nuclear waste repositories. The sensitivity of the results to some parameters, such as capillarity, is also addressed. The simulations are conducted using an updated version of the TOUGH2-FLAC3D simulator, which is based on a sequential explicit method to couple flow and geomechanics [4]. A new capability for large strains and creep

  1. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    PubMed

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  2. [The value and comparison of plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone and urinary free cortisol in predicting long-term outcome after operation of Cushing's disease].

    PubMed

    Feng, M; Liu, X H; Bao, X J; Yong, C X; Lu, L; Deng, K; Lian, W; Xing, B; Zhu, H J; Ma, W B; Yan, Y; Wang, R Z

    2016-12-06

    Objective: To study and the value of morning plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and urinary free cortisol (24 h UFC) within 3 days after operation in patients with Cushing's disease in predicting the long-term outcome. Methods: The clinical data of 140 patients with Cushing's disease who were treated in Department of Neurosurgery of PUMCH from 2012 to 2014 were analyzed retrospectively.The univariate analysis, multivariate Logistic analysis, ROC curve analysis and other statistical methods were used to study the predicting value of morning plasma ACTH and 24 h UFC in 3 days post operation. Results: Univariate analysis showed that in the two groups of the early remission and no remission, there was significant statistical difference between the preoperative ACTH, preoperative 24 h UFC, postoperative ACTH and postoperative 24 h UFC (P<0.05, <0.01, <0.01). Logistic analysis showed that ACTH and 24 h UFC after operation of two groups had significant difference (P<0.01, <0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that postoperative cutoff values of ACTH and 24 h UFC were 4.11 pmol/L (18.7 pg/ml) and 281.42 nmol (102 μg)/24 h. ROC analysis was performed to evaluate the predicting performance of postoperative ACTH, resulting in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.917 (95%CI: 0.858-0.957, P<0.01). In comparison, 24 h UFC had an AUC of 0.814 (95%CI: 0.739-0.875, P<0.01). The predicting value of ACTH is significantly better than that of 24 h UFC (P=0.005). Conclusion: Early morning 24 h UFC and ACTH within 3 days after operation both showed considerable accuracy in predicting the long-term outcome of Cushing's disease, and the significance of ACTH was even greater than that of 24 h UFC.

  3. Using individual-condition measures to predict the long-term importance of habitat extent for population persistence.

    PubMed

    Cosgrove, Anita J; McWhorter, Todd J; Maron, Martine

    2017-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost-effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins' heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the

  4. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences

    PubMed Central

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M.; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S.; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-01-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf sur