Science.gov

Sample records for predicting long-term creep

  1. Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

    2012-02-01

    The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

  2. Accelerated characterization for long-term creep behavior of polymer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Rongguo; Chen, Chaozhong; Li, Qifu; Luo, Xiyan

    2008-11-01

    Based on the observation that high stress results in increasing creep rate of polymeric material, which is analogous to the time-temperature equivalence, where high temperature accelerates the process of creep or relaxation of polymer, the time-stress equivalence is investigated. The changes of intrinsic time in polymer induced by temperature and stress are studied using the free volume theory, and a clock model based on the time-temperature and time-stress equivalence is constructed to predict the long-term creep behavior of polymer. Polypropylene is used for this work. The specimens with shape of dumbbell are formed via injection molding. The short-term creep tests under various stress levels are carried out at ambient temperature. The creep strains of specimens are modeled according to the concept of time-stress equivalence, and the corresponding stress shift factors are calculated. A master creep curve is built by the clock model. The result indicates that the time-stress superposition principle provides an accelerated characterization method in the laboratory. Finally, the time-dependent axial elongations at sustained stress levels, whose values are close to the tensile strength of polypropylene, are measured. The three phases of creep, i.e., the transient, steady state and accelerated creep phases, are studied, and the application and limitation of the time-stress superposition principle are discussed.

  3. Estimation of long-term creep behavior of salt

    SciTech Connect

    Chun, R.C.

    1980-08-01

    A computer routine for both primary and secondary creep laws has been developed using a modified strain hardening law. The computations reveal that results from Heard's steady-state creep law and Lomenick and Bradshaw's primary creep law can differ from each other by a factor of thirty after about 6 hours of creep deformation, but the difference diminishes as time becomes large. The belief that these two creep laws may yield long-term results that are orders of magnitude apart is shown to be unfounded.

  4. Long term property prediction of polyethylene nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaito, Ali Al-Abed

    properties of the nanocomposites was analyzed by examining tensile and creep-recovery behavior of the films at temperatures in the range of 25 to -100°C. Within the measured temperature range, the materials showed a nonlinear temperature dependent response. The time-temperature superposition principle was successfully used to predict the long term behavior of LLDPE nanocomposites.

  5. Barrier and long term creep properties of polymer nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranade, Ajit

    The barrier properties and long term strength retention of polymers are of significant importance in a number of applications. Enhanced lifetime food packaging, substrates for OLED based flexible displays and long duration scientific balloons are among them. Higher material requirements in these applications drive the need for an accurate measurement system. Therefore, a new system was engineered with enhanced sensitivity and accuracy. Permeability of polymers is affected by permeant solubility and diffusion. One effort to decrease diffusion rates is via increasing the transport path length. We explore this through dispersion of layered silicates into polymers. Layered silicates with effective aspect ratio of 1000:1 have shown promise in improving the barrier and mechanical properties of polymers. The surface of these inorganic silicates was modified with surfactants to improve the interaction with organic polymers. The micro and nanoscale dispersion of the layered silicates was probed using optical and transmission microscopy as well as x-ray diffraction. Thermal transitions were analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry. Mechanical and permeability measurements were correlated to the dispersion and increased density. The essential structure-property relationships were established by comparing semicrystalline and amorphous polymers. Semicrystalline polymers selected were nylon-6 and polyethylene terephthalate. The amorphous polymer was polyethylene terphthalate-glycol. Densification due to the layered silicate in both semicrystalline and amorphous polymers was associated with significant impact on barrier and long term creep behavior. The inferences were confirmed by investigating a semi-crystalline polymer---polyethylene---above and below the glass transition. The results show that the layered silicate influences the amorphous segments in polymers and barrier properties are affected by synergistic influences of densification and uniform dispersion of the

  6. Contribution of recovery mechanisms of microstructure during long-term creep of Gr.91 steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghassemi-Armaki, H.; Chen, R. P.; Maruyama, K.; Igarashi, M.

    2013-02-01

    Creep rupture life and microstructural degradation have been studied in two heats of Gr.91 steels. The coarsening of subgrains and precipitates, mainly M23C6 and MX, has been evaluated during static aging and creep. Hardness of head (static aging) and gauge (creep) portions of crept samples were measured to know their relation with microstructural degradation during long-term exposure. The correlation between subgrain size and spacing of precipitates and hardness has been equated. As an example, there is a close correlation between hardness value and inverse subgrains size in Gr.91 steels, regardless of aging or creep conditions. The appearance of three recovery mechanisms was found during long-term creep, namely: strain-induced recovery, pure static recovery and strain-assisted static recovery. By equated correlations between subgrain size, precipitates and hardness, the contribution of three recovery mechanisms to subgrain coarsening and hardness drop were calculated for two creep conditions at 700 °C in long-term creep region, where breakdown of creep strength has happen. The calculated data accord well with experimental data obtained from aged and crept samples. The contribution of static recovery to the subgrain coarsening and consequent hardness drop during long-term creep increases with increasing creep time. The significant contribution of both static recovery mechanisms can result in the breakdown of creep strength in long-term creep region.

  7. Long-Term Creep and Creep Rupture Behavior of Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Mach, A.; Jeelani, S.; Verrilli, Michael J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tensile creep behavior of SiC/SiNC ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures and at various stress levels have been investigated for turbine engine applications. The objective of this research is to present creep behavior of SiC/SiCN composites at stress levels above and below the monotonic proportional limit strength and predict the life at creep rupture conditions. Tensile creep-rupture tests were performed on an Instron 8502 servohydraulic testing machine at constant load conditions up to a temperature limit of 1000 C. Individual creep curves indicate three stages such as primary, secondary, and tertiary. The creep rate increased linearly at an early stage and then gradually became exponential at higher strains. The stress exponent and activation energy were also obtained at 700 and 1000 C. The specimen lifetime was observed to be 55 hrs at 121 MPa and at 700 C. The life span reduced to 35 hrs at 143 MPa and at 1000 C. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed significant changes in the crystalline phases and creep damage development. Creep failures were accompanied by extensive fiber pullout, matrix cracking, and debonding along with fiber fracture. The creep data was applied to Time-Temperature-Stress superposition model and the Manson-Haferd parametric model for long-time life prediction.

  8. Weakening of rock salt by water during long-term creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urai, Janos L.; Spiers, Christopher J.; Zwart, Hendrik J.; Lister, Gordon S.

    1986-12-01

    The rheological properties of rock salt are of fundamental importance in predicting the long-term evolution of salt-based radioactive waste repositories and strategic storage caverns, and in modelling the formation of salt diapirs and associated oil traps1,2. The short-term, high-stress rheology of rock salt is well known from laboratory experiments; however, extrapolation to appropriately low stresses fails to predict the rapid flow seen in certain natural structures. Furthermore, experiments have failed to reproduce the recrystallized microstructure of naturally deformed salt. Here we report experiments indicating that the above discrepancies can be explained by taking into account the influence of trace amounts of brine. Trace brine is always present in natural salt but sometimes escapes during experiments. Our tests on dry dilated salt show more or less conventional dislocation creep behaviour, but brine-bearing samples show marked weakening at low strain rates. This is associated with dynamic recrystallization and a change of deformation mechanism to solution transfer creep. Because natural rock salt always contains some brine, these results cast substantial doubt on the validity of presently accepted dislocation creep laws for predicting the long-term rheological behaviour of salt in nature.

  9. Prediction of long-term failure in Kevlar 49 composites

    SciTech Connect

    Gerstle, F.P. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Creep rupture data in Kevlar 49 epoxy usually exhibit considerable scatter: the coefficient of variation (CV) about the mean failure time at a given stress exceeds 100%. Quasi-static strength data, in contrast, shows little scatter: <4% CV for pressure vessels and <10% for impregnated strands. In this paper analysis of existing creep rupture data on Kevlar epoxy vessels at four storage pressures has produced an interesting and useful result. It was found that a significant portion of the scatter in failure times for pressure vessels is due to spool-to-spool variation in the eight spools of Kevlar fibers used to wind the vessels. The order rank of mean times to failure was consistent over a pressure range from 3400 to 4300 psi, 68 to 86% of short term burst. Also, the coefficient of variation about the mean failure time for each spool was less than that for the total sample. The statistical inference that the sample is nonhomogeneous was supported by a nonparametric check using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and by a parametric analysis of variance. The order rank found in long-term tests did not unequivocally agree with static strength ranks; several spool sets were distinctly high or low. The implication is that, while static strengths are not valid predictors of long-term behavior, short term creep rupture tests at high stress definitely are. The material difference which causes the spool-to-spool variations has not yet been identified for all eight spools. However, it appears that Kevlar behavior at lower pressures may be predicted through the use of curves fitted to the data for each spool. A power law relating failure time to pressure, t = t/sub 0/(p/p/sub 0/)/sup m/, was found to fit the data reasonably well. The implication is that, both in composite vessel design and in creep rupture experiments, the pressure (or stress) level be carefully controlled.

  10. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

  11. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  12. Long-term lifetime prediction for RF-MEMS switches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulloni, V.; Barbato, M.; Meneghesso, G.

    2016-07-01

    Time to failure estimations of RF-MEMS (radio-frequency microelectromechanical system) switches under prolonged actuation is particularly interesting for satellite applications, where the devices have to retain their functionality for years. At present, a well-assessed methodology to predict RF-MEMS lifetime is still lacking, probably because, in the case of MEMS, failure may originate from either electrical or mechanical sources. Temperature is the most common failure accelerating factor, but it accelerates all failure mechanisms at the same time. In this paper, we take into account the effect of temperature on three different failure mechanisms, namely charge trapping, mechanical creep, and contact degradation. Short-term and long-term continuous actuation measurements for an ohmic clamped-clamped switch are reported and analyzed, showing that failure is strongly accelerated by temperature in the range of temperatures investigated. The maximum temperature exploitable is, however, quite low, around 75 °C, because of structural modifications due to internal stress variations and buckling. Based on the experimental data, a prediction model is presented and discussed. While failure at 55 °C has been measured after a few days, the extrapolated lifetimes at 25 °C are around five years. Contact deterioration has been found to be the reason of failure, but the switch fails only when the spring constant has been sufficiently lowered by mechanical creep.

  13. Long-term lifetime prediction for RF-MEMS switches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulloni, V.; Barbato, M.; Meneghesso, G.

    2016-07-01

    Time to failure estimations of RF-MEMS (radio-frequency microelectromechanical system) switches under prolonged actuation is particularly interesting for satellite applications, where the devices have to retain their functionality for years. At present, a well-assessed methodology to predict RF-MEMS lifetime is still lacking, probably because, in the case of MEMS, failure may originate from either electrical or mechanical sources. Temperature is the most common failure accelerating factor, but it accelerates all failure mechanisms at the same time. In this paper, we take into account the effect of temperature on three different failure mechanisms, namely charge trapping, mechanical creep, and contact degradation. Short-term and long-term continuous actuation measurements for an ohmic clamped–clamped switch are reported and analyzed, showing that failure is strongly accelerated by temperature in the range of temperatures investigated. The maximum temperature exploitable is, however, quite low, around 75 °C, because of structural modifications due to internal stress variations and buckling. Based on the experimental data, a prediction model is presented and discussed. While failure at 55 °C has been measured after a few days, the extrapolated lifetimes at 25 °C are around five years. Contact deterioration has been found to be the reason of failure, but the switch fails only when the spring constant has been sufficiently lowered by mechanical creep.

  14. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    We report here a constitutive model for predicting long-term creep strain evolution in’ strengthened Ni-base superalloys. Dislocation climb-bypassing’, typical in intermediate’ volume fraction (~20%) alloys, is considered as the primary deformation mechanism. Dislocation shearing’ to anti-phase boundary (APB) faults and diffusional creep are also considered for high-stress and high-temperature low-stress conditions, respectively. Additional damage mechanism is taken into account for rapid increase in tertiary creep strain. The model has been applied to Alloy 282, and calibrated in a temperature range of 1375-1450°F, and stress range of 15-45ksi. The model parameters and a MATLAB code are provided. This report is prepared by Monica Soare and Chen Shen at GE Global Research. Technical discussions with Dr. Vito Cedro are greatly appreciated. This work was supported by DOE program DE-FE0005859

  15. Bone creep and short and long term subsidence after cemented stem total hip arthroplasty (THA).

    PubMed

    Norman, T L; Shultz, T; Noble, G; Gruen, T A; Blaha, J D

    2013-03-15

    Stem-cement and cement-bone interfacial failures as well as cement fractures have been noted in cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA) as the cause of aseptic loosening. Attempts to reduce the risk of femoral component loosening include improving the stem-cement interface by various coatings, using a textured or porous coated stem surfaces or by using a tapered stem having a highly-polished surface. The latter approach, often referred to as "force-closed" femoral stem design, would theoretically result in stem stabilization subsequent to debonding and 'taper-lock'. Previous work using three-dimensional finite element analysis has shown a state of stress at the stem-cement interface indicative of 'taper-lock' for the debonded stem and indicated that stem-cement interface friction and bone cement creep played a significant role in the magnitudes of stresses and subsidence of the stem. However, the previous analysis did not include the viscoelastic properties of bone, which has been hypothesized to permit additional expansion of the bone canal and allow additional stem subsidence (Lu and McKellop, 1997). The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of bone viscoelastic behavior on stem subsidence using a 3D finite element analysis. It was hypothesized that the viscoelastic behavior of bone in the hoop direction would allow expansion of the bone reducing the constraint on bone over time and permit additional stem subsidence, which may account for the discrepancies between predicted and clinical subsidence measurements. Analyses were conducted using physiological loads, 'average peak loads' and 'high peak loads' for 'normal patient' and 'active patient' (Bergmann et al., 2010) from which short and long term subsidence was predicted. Results indicated that bone creep does contribute to higher stem subsidence initially and after 10 years of simulated loading. However, it was concluded that the "constraint" upon the cement mantle is not mitigated enough to result in

  16. Revised long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Galehouse, Jon S.

    1997-01-01

    Although the Hayward fault is a source of major earthquakes, it also creeps or slips aseismically, and has done so steadily for several decades (certainly since 1921 and probably since 1869). Most of the fault creeps between 3 and 6 mm/yr, except for a 4- to 6-km-long segment near its south end that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. We present results of our recent surveys to recover angles and deflection lines established across the fault in the 1960s and 1970s, but unmonitored since. We have added data from more offset cultural features to the long-term creep rate data set and made substantial improvements to the analytical method used to compute offsets. The revised creep rate values improve our knowledge of spatial and temporal variation along the fault. The more accurate revised data has reduced the estimate of the average creep rate along most of the fault from 5.1 mm/yr to 4.6 mm/yr. Creep rates in the 9 mm/yr section near the south end have remained the same.

  17. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  18. Long term prediction of flood occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; José Polo, María

    2016-05-01

    How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

  19. Effect of Creep of Ferritic Interconnect on Long-Term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-08-01

    High-temperature ferritic alloys are potential candidates as interconnect (IC) materials and spacers due to their low cost and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) compatibility with other components for most of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) . However, creep deformation becomes relevant for a material when the operating temperature exceeds or even is less than half of its melting temperature (in degrees of Kelvin). The operating temperatures for most of the SOFCs under development are around 1,073 K. With around 1,800 K of the melting temperature for most stainless steel, possible creep deformation of ferritic IC under the typical cell operating temperature should not be neglected. In this paper, the effects of IC creep behavior on stack geometry change and the stress redistribution of different cell components are predicted and summarized. The goal of the study is to investigate the performance of the fuel cell stack by obtaining the changes in fuel- and air-channel geometry due to creep of the ferritic stainless steel IC, therefore indicating possible changes in SOFC performance under long-term operations. The ferritic IC creep model was incorporated into software SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC, and finite element analyses were performed to quantify the deformed configuration of the SOFC stack under the long-term steady-state operating temperature. It was found that the creep behavior of the ferritic stainless steel IC contributes to narrowing of both the fuel- and the air-flow channels. In addition, stress re-distribution of the cell components suggests the need for a compliant sealing material that also relaxes at operating temperature.

  20. Long-term monitoring of creep rate along the Hayward fault and evidence for a lasting creep response to 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.; Simpson, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We present results from over 30 yr of precise surveys of creep along the Hayward fault. Along most of the fault, spatial variability in long-term creep rates is well determined by these data and can help constrain 3D-models of the depth of the creeping zone. However, creep at the south end of the fault stopped completely for more than 6 years after the M7 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (LPEQ), perhaps delayed by stress drop imposed by this event. With a decade of detailed data before LPEQ and a decade after it, we report that creep response to that event does indeed indicate the expected deficit in creep.

  1. Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

    1994-01-01

    For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

  2. Is Current Hydrogeologic Research Addressing Long-TermPredictions?

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2004-09-10

    Hydrogeology is a field closely related to the needs of society. Many problems of current national and local interest require predictions of hydrogeological system behavior, and, in a number of important cases, the period of prediction is tens to hundreds of thousands of years. It is argued that the demand for such long-term hydrogeological predictions casts a new light on the future needs of hydrogeological research. Key scientific issues are no longer concerned only with simple processes or narrowly focused modeling or testing methods, but also with assessment of prediction uncertainties and confidence, couplings among multiple physico-chemical processes occurring simultaneously at a site, and the interplay between site characterization and predictive modeling. These considerations also have significant implications for hydrogeological education. With this view, it is asserted that hydrogeological directions and education need to be reexamined and possibly refocused to address specific needs for long-term predictions.

  3. Problems of predicting material property retention during long term service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordeev, Yu. P.; Khomutov, A. M.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure of materials-science studies accompanying the process of product development, manufacture and service is offered. It provides correct selection of materials, trustworthy prediction of their behavior, high reliability of their operation in products of space-rocket application. Reliable prediction of material behavior during long-term service is achieved by breaking up the complex effect of the environment into individual factors and by analyzing the effect of each factor on the properties of the material.

  4. Creep-fatigue strength of long-term post-service 2 ter dot 1/4 Cr-1 ter dot Mo steel and remaining life estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Okazaki, M.; Hashimoto, M.; Mochizuki, T. )

    1991-11-01

    This paper reports on creep-fatigue strength of post-service 2 {center dot} 1/4 Cr-1 {center dot} Mo steel used for about one hundred-thousand hours in a fossil fuel power plant. The creep-fatigue strength of the post-service material was lower than that of the virgin material, whereas it was comparable to that of thermally aged material, which was artificially exposed at high temperature for a long time so that it had an equivalent value of the Larson-Miller parameter to the post-service material. The nondestructive detection of the long-term degradation damage due to long-term thermal aging, as well as due to creep-fatigue, was also investigated by applying an ultrasonic technique. It was found that the energy attenuation coefficient, {alpha}, which is defined by the ratio of input to output energies of a longitudinal ultrasonic wave, had a good correlation with creep-fatigue damage in the virgin, aged and post-service materials; and hence, {alpha} was a successful parameter to detect creep-fatigue damage. Based on the results thus obtained, a new remaining life estimation method for creep-fatigue of in-service high-temperature materials was proposed. The application of the method to the post-service material tested gave good predicted results.

  5. Long-term performance of ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures: Modelling of creep and creep rupture

    SciTech Connect

    Curtin, W.A.; Fabeny, B.; Ibnabdeljalil, M.; Iyengar, N.; Reifsnider, K.L.

    1996-07-31

    The models developed, contain explicit dependences on constituent material properties and their changes with time, so that composite performance can be predicted. Three critical processes in ceramic composites at elevated temperatures have been modeled: (1) creep deformation of composite vs stress and time-dependent creep of fibers and matrix, and failure of these components; (2) creep deformation of ``interface`` around broken fibers; and (3) lifetime of the composite under conditions of fiber strength loss over time at temperature. In (1), general evolution formulas are derived for relaxation time of matrix stresses and steady-state creep rate of composite; the model is tested against recent data on Ti-MMCs. Calculations on a composite of Hi-Nicalon fibers in a melt-infiltrated SiC matrix are presented. In (2), numerical simulations of composite failure were made to map out time-to-failure vs applied load for several sets of material parameters. In (3), simple approximate relations are obtained between fiber life and composite life that should be useful for fiber developers and testers. Strength degradation data on Hi-Nicalon fibers is used to assess composite lifetime vs fiber lifetime for Hi-Nicalon fiber composites.

  6. The long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cefola, P. J.; Long, A. C.; Holloway, G., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    Survey of averaging and multirevolution methods for long-term orbit prediction. A technical approach with the following features is recommended: (1) averaged variation-of-parameter equations, (2) analytical expressions for oblateness and third-body effects, (3) definite integrals for atmospheric drag and lunar effects (for long-period orbits), (4) nonsingular equinoctial element formulation, (5) multistep numerical integration processes, and (6) precise osculating-to-mean element transformation. Several orbital predictions illustrate the contribution of this technical approach to overall accuracy and efficiency. Future development of the analytical averaging method in nonsingular coordinates by automated manipulation of literal series is discussed.

  7. Effects of long-term thermal aging on the tensile and creep properties of commercially heat-treated alloy 718

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, M.K.

    1984-01-01

    Alloy 718 is a structure material widely used in elevated-temperature applications. In particular, it was extensively used in the design of the upper internal system and control rod drive line of the proposed Clinch River Breeder Reactor. Its popularity is due to several excellent behavioral features, including high creep and creep-rupture strength, good oxidation resistance, and exceptional high-cycle fatigue strength. However, alloy 718 is extremely complex, and its microstructure can be significantly modified by thermal treatment. The stability of the alloy in long-term elevated-temperature service is therefore a substantial concern in any such application. This report presents tensile and creep data obtained on three heats of alloy 718 after thermal aging for up to 27,000 h from 593 to 76{degree}C. Implications of these results in terms of long-term stability of the alloy are discussed. 5 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.

  8. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    PubMed

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically.

  9. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    PubMed

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically. PMID:24365536

  10. Long-term weather predictability: Ural case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of the state-of-the-art long-term meteorological forecast (at the seasonal level) is still low. Here it is presented approach (RAMES method) realizing different forecasting methodology. It provides prediction horizon of up to 19-22 years under equal probabilities of determination of parameters in every analyzed period [1]. Basic statements of the method are the following. 1. Long-term forecast on the basis of numerical modeling of the global meteorological process is principally impossible. Extension of long-term prediction horizon could be obtained only by the revealing and using a periodicity of meteorological situations at one point of observation. 2. Conventional calendar is unsuitable for generalization of meteorological data and revealing of cyclicity of meteorological processes. RAMES method uses natural time intervals: one day, synodic month and one year. It was developed a set of special calendars using these natural periods and the Metonic cycle. 3. Long-term time series of meteorological data is not a uniform universal set, it is a sequence of 28 universal sets appropriately superseding each other in time. The specifics of the method are: 1. Usage of the original research toolkit consisting of - a set of calendars based on the Metonic cycle; - a set of charts (coordinate systems) for the construction of sequence diagrams (of daily variability of a meteorological parameter during the analyzed year; of daily variability of a meteorological parameter using long-term dynamical time series of periods-analogues; of monthly and yearly variability of accumulated value of meteorological parameter). 2. Identification and usage of new virtual meteorological objects having several degrees of generalization appropriately located in the used coordinate systems. 3. All calculations are integrated into the single technological scheme providing comparison and mutual verification of calculation results. During the prolonged testing in the Ural region, it was

  11. Prediction of long-term aging of cellular plastics

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Y.; Kokko, E.

    1995-09-01

    Chlorofluorocarbon(CFC)-based cellular plastics are facing the challenge of environmental protection. The cellular plastic industry has been looking for new blowing agents as alternatives for CFCs since the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987. The prediction of long-term thermal performance of newly developed cellular plastics thus becomes apparent. In this paper, the model ACP aging of cellular plastic is introduced. This model was originally developed for evaluating the thermal performance of carbon dioxide, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-22, n-Pentane, neo-Pentane and cyclo-Pentane. In comparison with short-term measurements, the ACP program now is able to predict the aging performance of cellular plastics is to combine the short-term measurements and model simulation. 21 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Creep Behavior of Glass/Ceramic Sealant and its Effect on Long-term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Koeppel, Brian J.; Stephens, Elizabeth V.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2009-10-14

    The creep behavior of glass or glass-ceramic sealant materials used in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) becomes relevant under SOFC operating temperatures. In this paper, the creep of glass-ceramic sealants was experimentally examined, and a standard linear solid model was applied to capture the creep behavior of glass ceramic sealant materials developed for planar SOFCs at high temperatures. The parameters of this model were determined based on the creep test results. Furthermore, the creep model was incorporated into finite-element software programs SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for multi-physics simulation of SOFCs. The effect of creep of glass ceramic sealant materials on the long-term performance of SOFC stacks was investigated by studying the stability of the flow channels and the stress redistribution in the glass seal and on the various interfaces of the glass seal with other layers. Finite element analyses were performed to quantify the stresses in various parts. The stresses in glass seals were released because of creep behavior during operations.

  13. Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKinley, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

  14. Long-Term Creep of a Thin-Walled Inconel 718 Stirling Power-Convertor Heater Head Assessed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, Randy R.

    2002-01-01

    The Department of Energy and NASA have identified Stirling power convertors as candidate power supply systems for long-duration, deep-space science missions. A key element for qualifying the flight hardware is a long-term durability assessment for critical hot section components of the power convertor. One such critical component is the power convertor heater head. The heater head is a high-temperature pressure vessel that transfers heat to the working gas medium of the convertor, which is typically helium. An efficient heater head design is the result of balancing the divergent requirements of thin walls for increased heat transfer versus thick walls to lower the wall stresses and thus improve creep resistance and durability. In the current design, the heater head is fabricated from the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV). Although IN 718 is a mature alloy system (patented in 1962), there is little long-term (>50,000-hr) creep data available for thin-specimen geometries. Since thin-section properties tend to be inferior to thicker samples, it is necessary to generate creep data using specimens with the same geometry as the actual flight hardware. Therefore, one facet of the overall durability assessment program involves generating relatively short-term creep data using thin specimens at the design temperature of 649 C (1200 F).

  15. Long-term predictions of minewater geothermal systems heat resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harcout-Menou, Virginie; de ridder, fjo; laenen, ben; ferket, helga

    2014-05-01

    Abandoned underground mines usually flood due to the natural rise of the water table. In most cases the process is relatively slow giving the mine water time to equilibrate thermally with the the surrounding rock massif. Typical mine water temperature is too low to be used for direct heating, but is well suited to be combined with heat pumps. For example, heat extracted from the mine can be used during winter for space heating, while the process could be reversed during summer to provide space cooling. Altough not yet widely spread, the use of low temperature geothermal energy from abandoned mines has already been implemented in the Netherlands, Spain, USA, Germany and the UK. Reliable reservoir modelling is crucial to predict how geothermal minewater systems will react to predefined exploitation schemes and to define the energy potential and development strategy of a large-scale geothermal - cold/heat storage mine water systems. However, most numerical reservoir modelling software are developed for typical environments, such as porous media (a.o. many codes developed for petroleum reservoirs or groundwater formations) and cannot be applied to mine systems. Indeed, mines are atypical environments that encompass different types of flow, namely porous media flow, fracture flow and open pipe flow usually described with different modelling codes. Ideally, 3D models accounting for the subsurface geometry, geology, hydrogeology, thermal aspects and flooding history of the mine as well as long-term effects of heat extraction should be used. A new modelling approach is proposed here to predict the long-term behaviour of Minewater geothermal systems in a reactive and reliable manner. The simulation method integrates concepts for heat and mass transport through various media (e.g., back-filled areas, fractured rock, fault zones). As a base, the standard software EPANET2 (Rossman 1999; 2000) was used. Additional equations for describing heat flow through the mine (both

  16. Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery.

    PubMed

    Skeffington, Richard A; Cosby, B Jack; Whitehead, Paul G

    2016-10-15

    This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future. PMID:27304372

  17. The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2013-01-01

    Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

  18. Sustainable Approach of Reusing Open Dumping Area by Predicting Long-Term Settlement of Waste Soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulaimi Shariffuddin, Ahmad; Irfah Mohd Pauzi, Nur; Hao, Goh Yu

    2016-03-01

    Sustainable approach towards an open dumping area can be determined by predicting the long-term settlement of waste soil. To predict the settlement that happens in closed open dumping area in Bukit Palong, Lukut in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, the Power Creep Function is used. The waste soil were collected to determine their basic geotechnical properties by doing sieve analysis, Atterberg Limit, consolidation, compaction and direct shear. From the geotechnical properties of the waste soil, the Power Creep Function are be used to determine the long-term settlement of the reused dumping area. There are three case studies and one of the parameters is M’ or reference compressibility that have the value from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa. There is also N’ or rate of compression that have value from 0.50 to 0.67. In Case 1, M’ and N’ are constant which are 5.8 × 10-5 kPa and 0.67 respectively. Case 2 have the value of M’ increased from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa with respect to age while N’ constant at 0.5. Lastly the Case 3 shows the M’ is constant at 1.6 × 10-5 kPa while the N’ is increased ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 with respect to age. The area will reach a stable condition which means the settlement has stabilized after 50 years. From the three case studies, the analysis show that the settlement does not exceed the allowable settlement which is 0.05m every year.

  19. Long-term Observation of Soil Creep Activity around a Landslide Scar

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rate of sediment infilling into landslide scars by soil creep is needed to estimate the timing of subsequent landslide activity at a particular site. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of its activity around the landslide scar is scarce. Additionally, there are few...

  20. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  1. Long term prediction and the SSC (Superconducting Super Collider)

    SciTech Connect

    Talman, R.

    1990-09-01

    Successful operation of the Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) will depend on the stable circulation of particles for tens of millions of turns around the rings, in the presence of small nonlinear deflecting fields. One design challenge is to set specifications for the maximum allowable field imperfections of this sort, consistent with the required. stability. Another challenge is to plan for the inclusion of field compensating elements that will ameliorate the effects of errors. The tools'' available for projecting the long term stability are theoretical, both analytic and numerical, and experimental. These aspects are reviewed. 19 refs.

  2. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  3. The long term characteristics of greenschist

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Bo-An

    2016-04-01

    The greenschist in the Jinping II Hydropower Station in southwest China exhibits continuous creep behaviour because of the geological conditions in the region. This phenomenon illustrates the time-dependent deformation and progressive damage that occurs after excavation. In this study, the responses of greenschist to stress over time were determined in a series of laboratory tests on samples collected from the access tunnel walls at the construction site. The results showed that the greenschist presented time-dependent behaviour under long-term loading. The samples generally experienced two stages: transient creep and steady creep, but no accelerating creep. The periods of transient creep and steady creep increased with increasing stress levels. The long-term strength of the greenschist was identified based on the variation of creep strain and creep rate. The ratio of long-term strength to conventional strength was around 80% and did not vary much with confining pressures. A quantitative method for predicting the failure period of greenschist, based on analysis of the stress-strain curve, is presented and implemented. At a confining pressure of 40 MPa, greenschist was predicted to fail in 5000 days under a stress of 290 MPa and to fail in 85 days under the stress of 320 MPa, indicating that the long-term strength identified by the creep rate and creep strain is a reliable estimate.

  4. Prediction Procedure of Creep Rupture of Polypropylene Resin based on Time-temperature Superposition Principle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamada, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Masayuki; Shimbo, Minoru; Miyano, Yasushi

    In this paper, the effects of intensity of electron beam, detergent and colorant on creep rupture of polypropylene resin (PP), which is widely used in medicine containers, were investigated and the evaluation method of the long-term forecast of creep rupture was examined. Concretely, first, PP resins including colorant or not were prepared and samples that variously changed intensity of the electron beam irradiation were made. Creep rupture test of those samples was carried in detergent having various consistencies. The effects of those factors on creep rupture were considered and long-term forecast was tried by using time-temperature superposition principle about creep deformation. The following results were obtained. (1) Although creep rupture of PP resin receives the effects of the presence of colorant, intensity of electron beam irradiation and detergent, the time-temperature dependence of creep rupture of PP resin including those affecting factors can be estimated by using the time-temperature superposition principle for creep deformation of the original PP resin. Based on this equivalency, it is possible to predict the long-term forecast of creep rupture of PP resin. (2) Creep rupture is affected by the presence of colorant, intensity of electron beam irradiation and detergent and it happens earlier when the intensity of electron beam irradiation and consistency of detergent are increased.

  5. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick- listed Danes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long-term sick leave. Methods We obtained individual characteristics and follow-up data from the Danish Register of Sickness Absence Compensation Benefits and Social Transfer Payments (RSS) during 2004 to 2010 for 189,279 Danes who experienced a period of long-term sickness absence (4+ weeks). In a learning data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005–2007) and times of recession (2008–2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. Results In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved only moderate prediction accuracy for the five outcome states. Results obtained with discrete event simulation were comparable with logistic regression. Conclusions Only moderate prediction accuracy could be achieved using the selected information from the Danish register RSS. Other variables need to be included in order to establish a prediction method which provides more accurate risk profiles for long-term sick-listed persons. PMID:24885866

  6. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  7. Temperamental factors predict long-term modifications of eating disorders after treatment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Eating Disorders (EDs) are complex psychiatric pathologies characterized by moderate to poor response to treatment. Criteria of remission and recovery are not yet well defined. Simultaneously, personality plays a key role among the factors that determine treatment outcome. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the possibility of temperamental and character traits to predict the long-term outcome of ED. Method A sample of 25 AN and 28 BN female patients were re-assessed face-to-face after a minimum 5-years-follow-up through SCID-I, EDI-2 and TCI-R. Regression Analyses were performed to ascertain the possibility of TCI-R dimensions at the first visit to predict the long-term outcome. Results Clinical and psychopathological symptoms significantly decreased over the time and 23% of participants no longer received a categorical ED diagnosis after at least 5 years of follow-up. TCI-R dimensions failed to predict the absence of a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis in the long term, but Novelty Seeking, Harm Avoidance and Reward Dependence demonstrated to predict the clinical improvement of several EDI-2 scales. Conclusions Our results support the idea that temperamental dimensions are relevant to the long-term improvement of clinical variables of ED. Low Novelty Seeking is the strongest predictor of poor outcome. PMID:24200241

  8. Long-term rates and the depth extent of fault creep along the San Andreas Fault system in northern California from alinement arrays and GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.; McFarland, F. S.; Simpson, R. W.; Caskey, J.

    2013-12-01

    The dextral San Andreas Fault system (SAFS) in northern California comprises five branches that exhibit considerable variation in the amount and spatial extent of aseismic release or creep. We estimate the depth extent of creep with a forward elastic model using the algorithms of Okada (1992) and boundary value dislocation solutions for creep rate and depth of creeping patches. For purposes of analysis we label branches, from west to east: A (San Gregorio), B (San Andreas), C (Calaveras-Hayward-Rodgers Creek-Maacama), D (Northern Calaveras-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs) and E (Greenville. Since the 1960s alinement arrays have provided one of the most accurate means to estimate the long-term creep rate and these rates have been reasonably well determined for much of the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) southward. Over the past decade we have been installing alinement arrays along the more remote faults, especially northward of the SFBA, to monitor the extent of creep on branches C and D. We currently monitor about 80 such arrays throughout the northern SAFS. To analyze the depth extent of creep over the entire system, we model 30 fault sections on these five branches, delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We have removed any significant transient rate changes imposed by large regional earthquakes. We use crustal velocities determined for global-positioning station pairs of survey mode and continuous (SGPS, CGPS or mixed pairs) that are located near each fault to provide additional constraint on average creep rates. We estimate the mean depth of creep from the mean observed surface creep rate for each section and the rate uncertainty allows estimation of a depth uncertainty. Uncertainties are generally much higher where only five years or less of alinement array data are available, but in some cases the addition of CGPS or multiple SGPS station pairs has been essential for a more complete evaluation of

  9. Prediction of creep of polymer concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Khristova, Yu.; Aniskevich, K.

    1995-11-01

    We studied the applicability of the phenomenological approach to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete consisting of polyester binder with diabase filler and diabase aggregate. We discovered that the principles of temperature-time analogy, of moisture-time analogy, and of temperature-moisture-time analogy are applicable to the description of the diagrams of short-time creep and to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete at different temperatures and constant moisture content of the material.

  10. Ability of the MACRO model to predict long-term leaching of metribuzin and diketometribuzin.

    PubMed

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjaer, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine; Ullum, Marlene; Olsen, Preben

    2009-05-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk of groundwater contamination. That study provided a unique opportunity for evaluating the ability of the numerical model MACRO to accurately simulate long-term leaching of metribuzin and diketometribuzin. When calibrated and validated with respect to water and bromide balances and applied assuming equilibrium sorption and first-order degradation kinetics as recommended in the European Union pesticide authorization procedure, MACRO was unable to accurately simulate the long-term fate of metribuzin and diketometribuzin; the concentrations in the soil were underestimated by many orders of magnitude. By introducing alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.

  11. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Goldsmith, Yulia; Chan, Jacqueline; Iskandir, Marina; Gulkarov, Iosif; Tortolani, Anthony; Brener, Sorin J.; Sacchi, Terrence J.; Heitner, John F.

    2015-01-01

    Background The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF), independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery. Methods From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female) were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered <35% and <45%, respectively. Elective primary procedures include CABG (56%) and valve (44%). Thirty-day outcomes were perioperative complications, length of stay, cardiac re-hospitalizations and early mortaility; long-term (> 30 days) outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months. Findings Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25%) and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50%) (p<0.001). Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30%) and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59%) (p<0.001). Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05). Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03). Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization. Conclusion Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures. PMID:26197273

  12. Forced vital capacity predicts long-term survival for curative-resected NSCLC.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xi; Cao, Hongxin; Xu, Jun; Yu, Jianyu; Zheng, Chunlong; Meng, Long; Du, Jiajun

    2014-09-01

    We conducted a retrospective study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who underwent curative lung resection to seek for better lung function parameters associated with long-term survival after lung resection. From January 2006 to December 2008, 470 patients who underwent lung resection with a postoperative diagnosis of NSCLC were studied. Median survival time was 60 months. Patients with pulmonary function values <80 % of predicted were defined as lung function impairment. Patients with impaired vital capacity, maximal voluntary ventilation, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) had significant shorter overall survival time (P = 0.024; P = 0.026; P < 0.001; P = 0.027; P = 0.007). In univariate analysis, VC, FVC, FEV1 and DLCO were found to have significant effect on overall survival. In multivariate analysis, FVC (HR, 2.029; 95 % CI 1.126-3.659; P = 0.019) was found to be an independent prognostic predictor of long-term overall survival. For cancer-specific survival, FVC (HR 2.404; 95 % CI 1.300-4.445; P = 0.005) was also found to be an independent prognostic predictor in multivariable analysis. Preoperative FVC, rather than FEV1 or DLCO, is an independent prognostic predictor for long-term survival. FVC is not only an indicator of lung function but also of great value for surgeons to predict survival after lung resection.

  13. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-10

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  14. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  15. Deficit in long-term synaptic plasticity is rescued by a computationally predicted stimulus protocol.

    PubMed

    Liu, Rong-Yu; Zhang, Yili; Baxter, Douglas A; Smolen, Paul; Cleary, Leonard J; Byrne, John H

    2013-04-17

    Mutations in the gene encoding CREB-binding protein (CBP) cause deficits in long-term plasticity, learning, and memory. Here, long-term synaptic facilitation (LTF) at Aplysia sensorimotor synapses in cell culture was used as a model system to investigate methods for overcoming deficits in LTF produced by a CBP knockdown. Injecting CBP-siRNA into individual sensory neurons reduced CBP levels and impaired LTF produced by a standard protocol of five 5-min pulses of serotonin (5-HT) delivered at 20 min interstimulus intervals. A computational model, which simulated molecular processes underlying LTF induction, predicted a rescue protocol of five pulses of 5-HT at non-uniform interstimulus intervals that overcame the consequences of reduced CBP and restored LTF. These results suggest that complementary empirical and computational studies can identify methods for ameliorating impairments of learning attributable to molecular lesions.

  16. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, Damien A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Alroy, John; Saltré, Frédérik; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Brook, Barry W.

    2016-10-01

    Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecological outcomes in the face of global change. Opportunities include using fossils, genes and computational models to identify ecological traits that caused species to be differentially prone to regional and range-wide extinction, test if threatened-species assessment approaches work and locate habitats that support stable ecosystems in the face of shifting climates. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively.

  17. Deficit in long-term synaptic plasticity is rescued by a computationally predicted stimulus protocol.

    PubMed

    Liu, Rong-Yu; Zhang, Yili; Baxter, Douglas A; Smolen, Paul; Cleary, Leonard J; Byrne, John H

    2013-04-17

    Mutations in the gene encoding CREB-binding protein (CBP) cause deficits in long-term plasticity, learning, and memory. Here, long-term synaptic facilitation (LTF) at Aplysia sensorimotor synapses in cell culture was used as a model system to investigate methods for overcoming deficits in LTF produced by a CBP knockdown. Injecting CBP-siRNA into individual sensory neurons reduced CBP levels and impaired LTF produced by a standard protocol of five 5-min pulses of serotonin (5-HT) delivered at 20 min interstimulus intervals. A computational model, which simulated molecular processes underlying LTF induction, predicted a rescue protocol of five pulses of 5-HT at non-uniform interstimulus intervals that overcame the consequences of reduced CBP and restored LTF. These results suggest that complementary empirical and computational studies can identify methods for ameliorating impairments of learning attributable to molecular lesions. PMID:23595752

  18. Common Factors Predicting Long-term Changes in Multiple Health Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    BLISSMER, BRYAN; PROCHASKA, JAMES O.; VELICER, WAYNE F.; REDDING, COLLEEN A.; ROSSI, JOSEPH S.; GREENE, GEOFFREY W.; PAIVA, ANDREA; ROBBINS, MARK

    2010-01-01

    This study was designed to assess if there are consistent treatment, stage, severity, effort and demographic effects which predict long-term changes across the multiple behaviors of smoking, diet and sun exposure. A secondary data analysis integrated data from four studies on smoking cessation (N = 3927), three studies on diet (N = 4824) and four studies on sun exposure (N = 6465). Across all three behaviors, behavior change at 24 months was related to treatment, stage of change, problem severity and effort effects measured at baseline. There were no consistent demographic effects. Across multiple behaviors, long-term behavior changes are consistently related to four effects that are dynamic and open to change. Behavior changes were not consistently related to static demographic variables. Future intervention research can target the four effects to determine if breakthroughs can be produced in changing single and multiple behaviors. PMID:20207664

  19. Review of uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions of space debris evolutionary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolado-Perez, J. C.; Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

    2015-08-01

    Since the launch of Sputnik-I in 1957, the amount of space debris in Earth's orbit has increased continuously. Historically, besides abandoned intact objects (spacecraft and orbital stages), the primary sources of space debris in Earth's orbit were (i) accidental and intentional break-ups which produced long-lasting debris and (ii) debris released intentionally during the operation of launch vehicle orbital stages and spacecraft. In the future, fragments generated by collisions are expected to become a significant source as well. In this context, and from a purely mathematical point of view, the orbital debris population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should be intrinsically unstable, due to the physics of mutual collisions and the relative ineffectiveness of natural sink mechanisms above~700 km. Therefore, the real question should not be "if", but "when" the exponential growth of the space debris population is supposed to start. From a practical point of view, and in order to answer the previous question, since the end of the 1980's several sophisticated long-term debris evolutionary models have been developed. Unfortunately, the predictions performed with such models, in particular beyond a few decades, are affected by considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainty comes from a relative important number of variables that being either under the partial control or completely out of the control of modellers, introduce a variability on the long-term simulation of the space debris population which cannot be captured with standard Monte Carlo statistics. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss many of the uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions done with evolutionary models, in order to serve as a roadmap for the uncertainty and the statistical robustness analysis of the long-term evolution of the space debris population.

  20. Long-term stability and prediction of soft tissue changes after LeFort I surgery.

    PubMed

    Hack, G A; de Mol van Otterloo, J J; Nanda, R

    1993-12-01

    Many evaluations of soft tissue changes after orthognathic surgery have been undertaken, and many correlations of soft tissue to hard tissue movements have been established. These studies have not, however, specifically discussed the long-term stability or characteristics of the soft tissue changes. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the long term stability of soft tissue changes 5 years after LeFort I osteotomy, (2) to determine reliable correlations, if any, of soft tissue changes to bony movements effected in surgery, and (3) to determine the predictability of soft tissue changes as an aid to orthodontic treatment planning. Cephalometric data from 25 patients who were treated with LeFort I osteotomy with or without a concurrent mandibular procedure were analyzed retrospectively. Cases were selected from the patient records of the Department of Oral Surgery of the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. These patients were followed up at four time points, the last being a mean of 6.1 years after surgery. Analysis of stability data revealed that most horizontal and vertical soft tissue change after LeFort I surgery occurred in the first year after surgery. Significant (> 10%) change continued to occur for subnasale, labrale inferius, upper lip protrusion, lower lip protrusion, and soft tissue convexity during the subsequent 5 years. Hard tissue to soft tissue correlations were calculated and ratios of soft tissue to hard tissue movement were determined for appropriate hard and soft tissue landmarks at four time intervals. Reliable correlations of hard tissue change at surgery to 5-year soft tissue change could be made for 10 variables, which was considerably less frequently than for 1-year soft tissue change. The relatively low reliability of long-term prediction correlations suggests that soft tissue movements may be more independent of hard tissue over time. One-year prediction values were similar to 5-year values and thus could be used

  1. Non-destructively differentiating the roles of creep, wear and oxidation in long-term in vivo exposed polyethylene cups.

    PubMed

    Pezzotti, Giuseppe; Takahashi, Yasuhito; Takamatsu, Seita; Puppulin, Leonardo; Nishii, Takashi; Miki, Hidenobu; Sugano, Nobuhiko

    2011-01-01

    Wear of polyethylene acetabular cups in patients of total hip arthroplasty is routinely deduced from the penetration of the femoral head into the acetabular liner as observed in the radiographs. However, the linear penetration thus measured represents the cumulative contribution of two components, one due to wear, and the other due to creep or irreversible deformation of the polyethylene structure. The erroneous attribution to wear of the entire penetration displacement of the head in the cup might lead to misinterpretation of the actual performance of acetabular cups. The aim of this study was to quantify the head displacement components due to wear and to creep, as they occur in vivo in acetabular cups, and to relate them to the oxidation state of the material by means of advanced Raman spectroscopy procedures. Throughout the investigation, we compared the behaviors on the molecular scale of acetabular cups subjected to different sterilization methods (i.e., γ-irradiation and ethylene oxide treatment). PMID:21067657

  2. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction.

  3. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction.

  4. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  5. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  6. Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

    PubMed Central

    Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

    2012-01-01

    What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

  7. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    SciTech Connect

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm/sup 2//s to 5.0E-3 cm/sup 2//s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm/sup 2//s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles.

  8. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    PubMed

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. PMID:26632992

  9. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  10. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    PubMed

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff.

  11. A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2016-10-01

    A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.

  12. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  13. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    PubMed

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures.

  14. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    PubMed

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. PMID:27449201

  15. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    PubMed

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. PMID:26192131

  16. Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, M. S.; Nokes, D. J.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island. METHODS: The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel. FINDINGS: First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios. Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity. CONCLUSION: If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached. PMID:11477964

  17. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Jaepil; Shin, Chang-Min; Choi, Hwan-Kyu; Kim, Kyong-Hyeon; Choi, Ji-Yong

    2016-10-01

    The APEC Climate Center (APCC) produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1) the Simple Bias Correction (SBC) method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2) the Moving Window Regression (MWR) method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3) the Climate Index Regression (CIR) method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4) the Integrated Time Regression (ITR) method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  18. Inflammatory Marker but Not Adipokine Predicts Mortality among Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Yu-Che; Lee, Chien-Te; Huang, Tiao-Lai; Cheng, Ben-Chung; Kuo, Chien-Chun; Su, Yih; Ng, Hwee-Yeong; Yang, Chih-Chau; Chuang, Fong-Rong; Liao, Shang-Chih

    2007-01-01

    Aims: chronic inflammation contributes significantly to the morbidity and mortality of chronic hemodialysis patients. A recent research has shown that adipokines were associated with inflammation in these patients. We aim to investigate whether biomarkers of inflammation, adipokines, and clinical features can predict the outcome of hemodialysis patients. Materials and methods: we enrolled 181 hemodialysis patients (men: 97, mean age: 56.3±13.6) and analyzed predictors of long-term outcomes. Results: during the 3-year followup period, 41 patients died; the main causes of death were infection and cardiovascular disease. Elevated serum levels of hsCRP and albumin and advanced age were highly associated with death (all P<.001). Leptin and adiponectin levels were not significantly different between deceased patients and survivors. Cox-regression analysis indicated that age, diabetes, albumin level, and hsCRP were independent factors predicting mortality. Conclusion: the presence of underlying disease, advanced age, and markers of chronic inflammation is strongly related to survival rate in long-term hemodialysis patients. PMID:18288267

  19. Prediction of outcome in traumatic brain injury patients using long-term qEEG features.

    PubMed

    Mikola, Annika; Ratsep, Indrek; Sarkela, Mika; Lipping, Tarmo

    2015-08-01

    Treatment of patients suffering from severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) commonly involves sedation and mechanical ventilation during prolonged stay in the intensive care unit. Continuous EEG is often monitored in these patients to detect epileptic seizures. It has also been suggested that EEG has prognostic value regarding the outcome of the treatment. In this study the ability of 186 qEEG features to predict the outcome of the treatment of TBI patients is assessed. The features are based on the power spectrum of the EEG. The data underlying the study contains long term (over 24 h) recordings from 20 patients treated in the postoperative intensive care unit of the North Estonian Medical Center. 12 qEEG features were found to have predictive value when evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve constructed from feature probabilities. PMID:26736563

  20. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  1. Multiple trauma in children: predicting outcome and long-term results

    PubMed Central

    Letts, Mervyn; Davidson, Darin; Lapner, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Objective To analyze the management of pediatric trauma and the efficacy of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in classifying injury severity and predicting prognosis. Design A retrospective case series. Setting The Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, a major pediatric trauma centre. Patients One hundred and forty-nine traumatized children with 2 or more injuries to 1 body system or a single injury to 2 or more body systems. Interventions Use of the PTS and Glasgow Coma Scale score in trauma management. Main outcome measures Types of injuries sustained, complications, missed injuries, psychosocial effects and residual deficiencies. Results The average PTS was 8.5 (range from −3 to 11). The total number of injuries sustained was 494, most commonly closed head injury (86). Forty-two percent of children with an average trauma score of 8.5 were treated surgically. There were 13 missed injuries, and complications were encountered in 57 children, the most common being secondary to fractures. Forty-eight (32%) children had residual long-term deficiency, most commonly neurologic deficiency secondary to head injury. Conclusions Fractures should be stabilized early to decrease long-term complications. A deficiency of the PTS is the weighting of open fractures of a minor bone. For example, metacarpal fracture is given the same weight as an open fracture of the femur. Neuropsychologic difficulties secondary to trauma are a major sequela of trauma in children. PMID:11939656

  2. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  3. Prediction of individual long-term outcomes in smoking cessation trials using frailty models.

    PubMed

    Li, Yimei; Wileyto, E Paul; Heitjan, Daniel F

    2011-12-01

    In smoking cessation clinical trials, subjects commonly receive treatment and report daily cigarette consumption over a period of several weeks. Although the outcome at the end of this period is an important indicator of treatment success, substantial uncertainty remains on how an individual's smoking behavior will evolve over time. Therefore it is of interest to predict long-term smoking cessation success based on short-term clinical observations. We develop a Bayesian method for prediction, based on a cure-mixture frailty model we proposed earlier, that describes the process of transition between abstinence and smoking. Specifically we propose a two-stage prediction algorithm that first uses importance sampling to generate subject-specific frailties from their posterior distributions conditional on the observed data, then samples predicted future smoking behavior trajectories from the estimated model parameters and sampled frailties. We apply the method to data from two randomized smoking cessation trials comparing bupropion to placebo. Comparisons of actual smoking status at one year with predictions from our model and from a variety of empirical methods suggest that our method gives excellent predictions.

  4. Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability.

    PubMed

    Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

    2014-01-01

    Empirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this longitudinal study, professionals [2010 (T0): n=218, 55% response rate; 2011 (T1): n=300, 68% response rate; 2012 (T2): n=265, 63% response rate] from 22 Dutch disease-management programs completed surveys assessing quality of care and program sustainability. Our study findings indicated that quality of chronic care delivery improved significantly in the first 2 years after implementation of the disease-management programs. At T1, overall quality, self-management support, delivery system design, and integration of chronic care components, as well as health care delivery and clinical information systems and decision support, had improved. At T2, overall quality again improved significantly, as did community linkages, delivery system design, clinical information systems, decision support and integration of chronic care components, and self-management support. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that quality of chronic care delivery at T0 (p<0.001) and quality changes in the first (p<0.001) and second (p<0.01) years predicted program sustainability. In conclusion this study showed that disease-management programs based on the chronic care model improved the quality of chronic care delivery over time and that short and long term changes in the quality of chronic care delivery predicted the sustainability of the projects.

  5. Do kidney histology lesions predict long-term kidney function after liver transplantation?

    PubMed

    Kamar, Nassim; Maaroufi, Chakib; Guilbeau-Frugier, Céline; Servais, Aude; Meas-Yedid, Vannary; Tack, Ivan; Thervet, Eric; Cointault, Olivier; Esposito, Laure; Guitard, Joelle; Lavayssière, Laurence; Panterne, Clarisse; Muscari, Fabrice; Bureau, Christophe; Rostaing, Lionel

    2012-01-01

    Histological renal lesions observed after liver transplantation are complex, multifactorial, and interrelated. The aims of this study were to determine whether kidney lesions observed at five yr after liver transplantation can predict long-term kidney function. Ninety-nine liver transplant patients receiving calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based immunosuppression, who had undergone a kidney biopsy at 60±48 months post-transplant, were included in this follow-up study. Kidney biopsies were scored according to the Banff classification. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was assessed at last follow-up, that is, 109±48 months after liver transplantation. eGFR decreased from 92±33 mL/min at transplantation to 63±19 mL/min after six months, to 57±17 mL/min at the kidney biopsy, to 54±24 mL/min at last follow-up (p<0.0001). At last follow-up, only three patients required renal replacement therapy. After the kidney biopsy, 13 patients were converted from CNIs to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors, but no significant improvement in eGFR was observed after conversion. Elevated eGFR at six months post-transplant and a lower fibrous intimal thickening score (cv) observed at five yr post-transplant were the two independent predictive factors for eGFR≥60 mL/min at nine yr post-transplant. Long-term kidney function seems to be predicted by the kidney vascular lesions.

  6. Prediction of mortality from respiratory distress among long-term mechanically ventilated patients.

    PubMed

    Boverman, Gregory; Genc, Sahika

    2014-01-01

    With the advent of inexpensive storage, pervasive networking, and wireless devices, it is now possible to store a large proportion of the medical data that is collected in the intensive care unit (ICU). These data sets can be used as valuable resources for developing and validating predictive analytics. In this report, we focus on the problem of prediction of mortality from respiratory distress among long-term mechanically ventilated patients using data from the publicly-available MIMIC-II database. Rather than only reporting p-values for univariate or multivariate regression, as in previous work, we seek to generate sparsest possible model that will predict mortality. We find that the presence of severe sepsis is highly associated with mortality. We also find that variables related to respiration rate have more predictive accuracy than variables related to oxygenation status. Ultimately, we have developed a model which predicts mortality from respiratory distress in the ICU with a cross-validated area-under-the-curve (AUC) of approximately 0.74. Four methodologies are utilized for model dimensionality-reduction: univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, decision trees, and penalized logistic regression.

  7. Stress and reward: long term cortisol exposure predicts the strength of sexual preference.

    PubMed

    Chumbley, J R; Hulme, O; Köchli, H; Russell, E; Van Uum, S; A Pizzagalli, D; Fehr, E

    2014-05-28

    Healthy individuals tend to consume available rewards like food and sex. This tendency is attenuated or amplified in most stress-related psychiatric conditions, so we asked if it depends on endogenous levels of the 'canonical stress hormone' cortisol. We unobtrusively quantified how hard healthy heterosexual men would work to consume erotic images of women versus men and also measured their exposure to endogenous cortisol in the prior two months. We used linear models to predict the strength of sexual preference from cortisol level, after accounting for other potential explanations. Heterosexual preference declines with self-reported anhedonia but increases with long term exposure to endogenous cortisol. These results suggest that cortisol may affect reward-related behavior in healthy adults.

  8. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1992-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  9. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    PubMed

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes.

  10. Long-term optical reliability and lifetime predictability of double clad fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abramczyk, Jaroslaw; Govindarajan, Harish; Cunningham, Wells; Guertin, Douglas; Tankala, Kanishka

    2015-03-01

    With the use of fiber lasers pervading diverse applications and environmental conditions, the long-term reliability of low index (LI) polymer coated double-clad (DC) fibers used for this purpose is significant. Mechanical reliability standards for 125um fibers are well established by Telcordia GR-20-CORE requirements and some work1 has been published investigating optical reliability of DC fibers with specially engineered coatings with respect to accelerated temperature and humidity aging. While these are helpful in providing a figure of merit to the optical reliability of LI fluoroacrylate coatings, it becomes important to decouple the effects of temperature and humidity in order to understand the underlying degradation mechanisms of LI polymers in various storage and operating environments. This paper identifies the effects of temperature and humidity on the spectral attenuation of DC fibers and presents a reliability model capable of predicting lifetimes under prolonged exposure to typical temperature and humidity conditions experienced during storage and operation of fiber lasers.

  11. SY 04-2 LONG-TERM CVD RISK PREDICTION IN LOW-INCIDENCE EUROPEAN POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    In Italy, the European SCORE Project risk score is the recommended tool for cardiovascular disease risk stratification in the primary prevention setting. Among non-diabetic subjects aged 40 to 64, the model estimates the 10-year probability of death due to cardiovascular disease based on individual's age, total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking status. A growing body of evidence suggests that in middle-aged adults this stratification may suffer from two major drawbacks. First, mortality risk severely underestimates the global burden of disease incidence. Second, younger individuals and women are likely to be classified in the "low 10-year risk" category despite the presence of risk factors.The latest European and American guidelines have eventually introduced the assessment of long-term risk of disease as additional tool to improve risk communication and increase risk awareness. Long-term risk scores were first developed in the US and in the UK, i.e. in high-risk populations. In low-incidence populations, these models may have poor calibration and discrimination ability, as shown for the Framingham equation. Therefore, our research team developed and validated a 20-year risk score for the Italian population. As part of a collaborative study with the Italian Health Institute, we pooled 7 population-based cohorts of middle-aged individuals recruited in Northern and in Central Italy in mid 1980 s and early 1990 s following a similar protocol with standardized MONICA procedures. Overall, more than 10500 men and women 35-69 years old and free of CVD at baseline, who developed 830 first major atherosclerotic events (coronary heart disease or ischemic strokes) during a median 17 years of follow-up. The score was based on traditional risk factors (age, blood lipids, systolic blood pressure and treatment, smoking and diabetes). In addition, social status and family history of coronary heart disease did improve risk prediction, at least in men. Finally we showed

  12. A simple model to predict the long-term fate of contaminants in unsaturated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, P.A. ); Sheppard, M.I.; Andres, T.H. )

    1993-01-01

    The authors present a model of contaminant transport in unsaturated soils that is suitable for long-term assessments. The model is based on a series of regression equations that represent the predictions of a mechanistic soil model. It therefore reflects the detailed treatment of processes, and the short time and space scales, of its parent code, but can predict root zone concentrations thousands of years in the future in just a few seconds of computer time, on even the simplest machines. The model accounts for transport via leaching and capillary rise, for chemical exchange between solid and liquid phases of the soil, and for losses, such as radioactive decay, gaseous evasion, and root uptake, that can be described as first-order processes. It can be applied to soils that are contaminated at the surface through irrigation or atmospheric deposition, or from below through contact with contaminated groundwater. It was developed to treat soil types and climates typical of the Canadian Shield, but could be modified for other conditions. The authors discuss the parent mechanistic model briefly, and then describe in detail its simplification and reduction to a simple assessment model. The authors show that the assessment model satisfactorily reproduces the predictions of the mechanistic model, which has been extensively validated against observations of contaminant concentrations in soils. A comparison of the model with multicompartment models, which have traditionally been used for assessment purposes, suggests that differences between the two types of models may cause systematic differences in predictions.

  13. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1991-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  14. Repolarization Heterogeneity of Magnetocardiography Predicts Long-Term Prognosis in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Bang, Woo-Dae; Kim, Kiwoong; Lee, Yong-Ho; Kwon, Hyukchan; Park, Yongki; Pak, Hui-Nam; Ko, Young-Guk; Lee, Moonhyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Magnetocardiography (MCG) has been proposed as a noninvasive, diagnostic tool for risk-stratifying patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study evaluated whether MCG predicts long-term prognosis in AMI. Materials and Methods In 124 AMI patients (95 males, mean age 60±11 years), including 39 with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, a 64-channel MCG was performed within 2 days after AMI. During a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were evaluated. Results MACE occurred in 31 (25%) patients, including 20 revascularizations, 8 deaths, and 3 re-infarctions. Non-dipole patterns were observed at the end of the T wave in every patients. However, they were observed at T-peak in 77% (24/31) and 54% (50/93) of patients with and without MACE, respectively (p=0.03). Maximum current, field map angles, and distance dynamics were not different between groups. In the multivariate analysis, patients with non-dipole patterns at T-peak had increased age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for MACE (hazard ratio 2.89, 95% confidence interval 1.20–6.97, p=0.02) and lower cumulative MACE-free survival than those with dipole patterns (p=0.02). Conclusion Non-dipole patterns at T-peak were more frequently observed in patients with MACE and were related to poor long-term prognosis. Thus, repolarization heterogeneity measured by MCG may be a useful predictor for AMI prognosis. PMID:27593860

  15. The Power of Renal Function Estimation Equations for Predicting Long-Term Kidney Graft Survival

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hoon Young; Joo, Dong Jin; Song, Mi Kyung; Kim, Myoung Soo; Park, Hyeong Cheon; Kim, Yu Seun; Kim, Beom Seok

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Evaluation of renal function using an accurate estimation equation is important for predicting long-term graft survival. We designed this retrospective cohort study to evaluate the predictive power of renal function estimation by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equations for graft survival. We reviewed data of 3290 adult kidney transplant recipients who underwent transplantation at a single center between April 1979 and September 2012. The reliability and agreement of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as calculated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations were evaluated using Bland–Altman plots and Cohen weighted kappa analyses. The predictive power of CKD stages as classified by each equation for graft survival was investigated using Cox regression models. Additionally, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to reveal the relationship between graft survival and eGFR equations. Of 3290 kidney transplant recipients, 3040 were included in the analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 128.08 ± 83.54 months, and 29.8% of participants were reclassified to higher eGFR categories by the CKD-EPI equation compared to the category classification by the MDRD equation. eGFR calculated using the MDRD equation was underestimated compared to that calculated using the CKD-EPI equation, based on the Bland–Altman plot. In Cohen weighted kappa analysis, agreement across CKD stages classified using the 2 equations was reliable, but all CKD stages classified using the MDRD equation appeared to be in lower eGFR categories than those classified using the CKD-EPI equation. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses indicated that the CKD stage as classified by the CKD-EPI equation, but not the MDRD equation, was significantly correlated with the risk of graft failure. In multivariable Cox regression analysis for

  16. A New Height Error Revision Method of Predicting Long-Term Wind Speed with MCP Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yujue; Hu, Fei

    2013-04-01

    Wind energy technology is one of the fastest in growing rate in new and renewable energy technologies. It is very important to select stronger windy sites in a country for the purpose of producing more electricity. Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) algorithms are used to predict the wind resource at target site for wind power development. MCP method model bases on a relationship between wind data (speed and direction) measured at the target site and concurrent wind data at reference site nearby. The model is then used with long-term data from the reference site to predict the long-term wind speed and direction distributions at the target site. MCP method is in order to be able to determine the annual energy capture of a wind farm located at the target site. Over the last 15 years well over a half dozen of MCP methods in the literature. The MCP algorithms differ in terms of overall approach, model definition, use of direction sectors, and length of the data. Such as 1)a linear regression model; 2)a model using distributions of ratios of wind speeds at two sites; 3)a vector regression method; 4)a method based on the ratio of standard deviations of two data sets, etc. Unfortunately, none of these MCP algorithms can predict wind speed from two sites at different altitudes. If the target site is much higher or lower than the reference site, the result accuracy will be much poorer. Inner Mongolia grassland is known as one of the regions that rich in wind resource in China. The data we use is from three wind measurements, consisting of nearly one year of six layers in XiLinGuoLe of Inner Mongolia . Firstly, we use the maximum likelihood method to estimate k, shape parameter and c, scale parameter of the Weibull function for different time periods. And then we find out that c has a power law function of height, and that k varies as the form of a quadratic function of height and obtains the max value in the height of 10 to100 meters. Finally, we add the height distribution

  17. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  18. Lesion Load May Predict Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lavorgna, Luigi; Messina, Silvia; Chisari, Clara Grazia; Ippolito, Domenico; Lanzillo, Roberta; Vacchiano, Veria; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Paola; Coniglio, Gabriella; Buccafusca, Maria; Paolicelli, Damiano; D’Ambrosio, Alessandro; Montella, Patrizia; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Alfano, Bruno; Gallo, Antonio; Simone, Isabella; Viterbo, Rosa; Zappia, Mario; Bonavita, Simona; Tedeschi, Gioacchino

    2015-01-01

    Background Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm) in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives To investigate the role of white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients. Methods 303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up). The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f) of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f), WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f), a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL), the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT). In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors. Results AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12–1.97 p = 0.006), PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14–1.80 p = 0.002), SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35–2.20 p<0.001), SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28–2.03 p<0.001), MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2–1.9 p<0.001), MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2–1.9 p = 0.001), MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02–1.55 p = 0.032). Conclusion In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome. PMID:25816303

  19. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  20. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-06-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan-Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy.

  1. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect

    Gollany, H. T.; Rickman, R. W.; Albrecht, S. L.; Liang, Y.; Kang, Shujiang; Machado, S.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the potential of no-tillage (NT) management to maintain SOC stocks while removing crop residue. Classical LTEs at Champaign, IL (1876), Columbia, MO (1888), Lethbridge, AB (1911), Breton, AB (1930), and Pendleton, OR (1931) were selected for their documented history of management practice and periodic soil organic matter (SOM) measurements. Management practices ranged from monoculture to 2- or 3-yr crop rotations, manure, no fertilizer or fertilizer additions, and crop residue returned, burned, or harvested. Measured and CQESTR predicted SOC stocks under diverse agronomic practices, mean annual temperature (2.1 19 C), precipitation (402 973 mm), and SOC (5.89 33.58 g SOC kg 1) at the LTE sites were significantly related (r 2 = 0.94, n = 186, P < 0.0001) with a slope not significantly different than 1. The simulation results indicated that the quantities of crop residue that can be sustainably harvested without jeopardizing SOC stocks were influenced by initial SOC stocks, crop rotation intensity, tillage practices, crop yield, and climate. Manure or a cover crop/intensified crop rotation under NT are options to mitigate loss of crop residue C, as using fertilizer alone is insufficient to overcome residue removal impact on SOC stocks

  2. Glycated Albumin Predicts Long-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Ma, Wen-Ya; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Liu, Yueh-Min; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: In patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing maintenance hemodialysis, glycated albumin (GA) levels may be more representative of blood glucose levels than hemoglobin A1C levels. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of GA levels on long-term survival in hemodialysis patients. Methods: A total of 176 patients with a mean age of 68.2 years were enrolled. The median duration of follow-up was 51.0 months. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff value. We examined the cumulative survival rate by Kaplan-Meier estimates and the influence of known survival factors with the multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression model. Results: In the whole patient group, cumulative survival in the low GA group was better than in the high GA group (p=0.030), with more prominence in those aged <70 years (p=0.029). In subgroup analysis, both diabetic (DM) and non-DM patients with low GA had a better cumulative survival compared with those with high GA. The risk of mortality increased by 3.0% for each 1% increase in serum GA level in all patients undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusions: In addition to serving as a glycemic control marker, GA levels may be useful for evaluating the risk of death in both DM and non-DM patients on hemodialysis. PMID:27226780

  3. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-12-31

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion.

  4. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    PubMed

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  5. Soluble co-signaling molecules predict long-term graft outcome in kidney-transplanted patients.

    PubMed

    Melendreras, Susana G; Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Menéndez, Aurora; Bravo-Mendoza, Cristina; González-Vidal, Ana; Coto, Eliecer; Díaz-Corte, Carmen; Ruiz-Ortega, Marta; López-Larrea, Carlos; Suárez-Álvarez, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    Co-signaling molecules are responsible for full T-cell activation after solid organ transplantation. Their increased expression can lead to the release of a soluble form that can modulate the immune response post-transplantation. We analyzed the presence of co-signaling molecules (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137, sCTLA-4, sCD80, sCD28, sCD40L, sPD-1, and sPD-L1) in serum from kidney-transplanted patients (n = 59) obtained at different times (before transplantation, and 15 days, 3 months and 1 year post-transplantation) and their contribution to graft outcome was evaluated using principal component analysis. Before transplantation, high levels of soluble co-signaling molecules (mainly sCD30, sCD137 and sCD40) were detected in all patients. These molecules were modulated soon after receiving an allograft but never attained similar levels to those of healthy controls. A signature based on the determination of six soluble co-stimulatory (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137 and sCD40L) and co-inhibitory (sPD-1 and sPD-L1) molecules at 3 months post-transplantation allowed a group of patients to be identified (27.12%) with a worse long-term graft outcome. Patients with high levels of soluble molecules showed a progressive and gradual deterioration of kidney function (increased creatinine and proteinuria levels and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate) over time and a higher risk of graft loss at 6 years post-transplantation than patients with low levels of these molecules (62.55% versus 5.14%, p<0.001). Thus, our data show an aberrant expression of soluble co-signaling molecules in kidney-transplanted patients whose quantification at 3 months post-transplantation might be a useful biomarker of immune status and help to predict long-term graft evolution.

  6. Predicting long-term carbon mineralization and trace gas production from thawing permafrost of Northeast Siberia.

    PubMed

    Knoblauch, Christian; Beer, Christian; Sosnin, Alexander; Wagner, Dirk; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2013-04-01

    The currently observed Arctic warming will increase permafrost degradation followed by mineralization of formerly frozen organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ). Despite increasing awareness of permafrost carbon vulnerability, the potential long-term formation of trace gases from thawing permafrost remains unclear. The objective of the current study is to quantify the potential long-term release of trace gases from permafrost organic matter. Therefore, Holocene and Pleistocene permafrost deposits were sampled in the Lena River Delta, Northeast Siberia. The sampled permafrost contained between 0.6% and 12.4% organic carbon. CO2 and CH4 production was measured for 1200 days in aerobic and anaerobic incubations at 4 °C. The derived fluxes were used to estimate parameters of a two pool carbon degradation model. Total CO2 production was similar in Holocene permafrost (1.3 ± 0.8 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.25 ± 0.13 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically) as in 34 000-42 000-year-old Pleistocene permafrost (1.6 ± 1.2 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.26 ± 0.10 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically). The main predictor for carbon mineralization was the content of organic matter. Anaerobic conditions strongly reduced carbon mineralization since only 25% of aerobically mineralized carbon was released as CO2 and CH4 in the absence of oxygen. CH4 production was low or absent in most of the Pleistocene permafrost and always started after a significant delay. After 1200 days on average 3.1% of initial carbon was mineralized to CO2 under aerobic conditions while without oxygen 0.55% were released as CO2 and 0.28% as CH4 . The calibrated carbon degradation model predicted cumulative CO2 production over a period of 100 years accounting for 15.1% (aerobic) and 1.8% (anaerobic) of initial organic carbon, which is significantly less than recent estimates. The multiyear time series from the incubation experiments helps to more reliably constrain projections of future

  7. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-01-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reaches an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature, and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes circa 300 years for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  8. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  9. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  10. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  11. Near and long-term load prediction using radial basis function networks

    SciTech Connect

    Hancock, M.F.

    1995-12-31

    A number of researchers have investigated the application of multi-layer perceptrons (MLP`s), a variety of neural network, to the problem of short-term load forecasting for electric utilities (e.g., Rahman & Hazin, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, May 1993). {open_quotes}Short-term{close_quotes} in this context typically means {open_quotes}next day{close_quotes}. These forecasts have been based upon previous day actual loads and meteorological factors (e.g., max-min temperature, relative humidity). We describe the application of radial basis function networks (RBF`s) to the {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} (next year) load forecasting problem. The RBF network performs a two-stage classification based upon annual average loads and meteorological data. During stage 1, discrete classification is performed using radius-limited elements. During stage 2, a multi-layer perceptron may be applied. The quantized output is used to correct a prediction template. The stage 1 classifier is trained by maximizing an objective function (the {open_quotes}disambiguity{close_quotes}). The stage 2 MLP`s are trained by standard back-propagation. This work uses 12 months of hourly meteorological data, and the corresponding hourly load data for both commercial and residential feeders. At the current stage of development, the RBF machine can train on 20% of the weather/load data (selected by simple linear sampling), and estimate the hourly load for an entire year (8,760 data points) with 9.1% error (RMS, relative to daily peak load). (By comparison, monthly mean profiles perform at c. 12% error.) The best short-term load forecasters operate in the 2% error range. The current system is an engineering prototype, and development is continuing.

  12. Velocity of tumor spontaneous expansion predicts long-term outcomes for diffuse low-grade gliomas

    PubMed Central

    Pallud, Johan; Blonski, Marie; Mandonnet, Emmanuel; Audureau, Etienne; Fontaine, Denys; Sanai, Nader; Bauchet, Luc; Peruzzi, Philippe; Frénay, Marc; Colin, Philippe; Guillevin, Rémy; Bernier, Valérie; Baron, Marie-Hélène; Guyotat, Jacques; Duffau, Hugues; Taillandier, Luc; Capelle, Laurent

    2013-01-01

    Background Supratentorial diffuse low-grade gliomas present a slow macroscopic tumor growth that can be quantified through the measurement of their velocity of diametric expansion. We assessed whether spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion can predict long-term outcomes as a categorical variable and as a continuous predictor. Methods A total of 407 adult patients with newly diagnosed supratentorial diffuse low-grade gliomas in adults were studied. Results The mean spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion before first-line treatment was 5.8 ± 6.3 mm/year. During the follow-up (mean, 86.5 ± 59.4 months), 209 patients presented a malignant transformation, and 87 died. The malignant progression-free survival and the overall survival were significantly longer in cases of slow velocity of diametric expansion (median, 103 and 249 months, respectively) than in cases of fast velocity of diametric expansion (median, 35 and 91 months, respectively; P < .001). In multivariate analyses, spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion as a categorical variable (<4, ≥4 and <8, ≥8 and <12, ≥12 mm/year) was an independent prognostic factor for malignant progression-free survival (P < .001; hazard ratio, 3.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.67–5.52) and for overall survival (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.62; 95% CI, 2.58–7.97). Velocity of diametric expansion was also an independent prognostic factor for overall survival as a continuous predictor, showing a linear relationship between overall survival and spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion (hazard ratio, 1.09 per one unit increase; 95% CI, 1.06–1.12; P < .001). Conclusions Independent of the molecular status, the spontaneous velocity of diametric expansion allows the identification of rapidly growing diffuse low-grade gliomas (at higher risk of worsened evolution) during the pretherapeutic period and without delaying treatment. PMID:23393207

  13. Quality of life among long-term survivors of breast cancer: Different types of antecedents predict different classes of outcomes.

    PubMed

    Carver, Charles S; Smith, Roselyn G; Petronis, Vida M; Antoni, Michael H

    2006-09-01

    Quality of life (QOL) has many aspects, both in the short-term and in the long-term. Different aspects of QOL may have different types of precursors: demographic, medical, and psychosocial. We examined this possibility in a group of long-term breast cancer survivors. Early-stage breast cancer patients (N = 163) who had provided information about medical, demographic, and psychosocial variables during the year after surgery completed a multidimensional measure of QOL 5-13 years later. Initial chemotherapy and higher stage predicted greater financial problems and greater worry about appearance at follow-up. Being partnered at diagnosis predicted many psychosocial benefits at follow-up. Hispanic women reported greater distress and social avoidance at follow-up. Initial trait optimism predicted diverse aspects of better psychosocial QOL at follow-up, but not other aspects of QOL. Thus, different aspects of QOL at long-term follow-up had different antecedents. Overall, psychological outcomes were predicted by psychosocial variables, presence of a partner at diagnosis, and ethnicity. Financial outcomes, in contrast, were predicted by medical variables, which otherwise predicted little about long-term QOL. This divergence among aspects of QOL should receive closer attention in future work. PMID:16304622

  14. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  15. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  16. Evaluation of Self-Assessment Tests for Predicting Long-Term Knowledge Retention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russo, John, Jr.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    To determine if posttests administered immediately following a continuing pharmacy education (CPE) program are reliable predictors of long-term knowledge retention, a portion of three posttests used in three successive CPE programs was readministered to attendees of those programs 8 to 21 weeks later. Posttests do not reliably assess long-term…

  17. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  18. Prediction of long-term strength of thermoplastic composites using time-temperature superposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeder, James Richard

    The compliance and strength of polymeric composite materials may change over time in high temperature or long service applications. To avoid failures due to unexpected strength loss after long periods of time, it is imperative that accelerated tests be developed to determine long-term strength properties. Constant ramp transverse strength tests on thermoplastic composite specimens were conducted at four temperatures from 300sp°F to 450sp°F and five duration times from 0.5 sec to 24 hrs. Up to 400sp°F, the time-temperature-superposition method produce a master curve allowing strength at longer times to be estimated from strength tests conducted over shorter times but at higher temperatures. The shift factors derived from compliance tests applied well to the strength data. To explain why strength behaved similar to compliance, a viscoelastic fracture model was investigated based on the hypothesis that the work of fracture for crack initiation at some critical flaw remains constant with time and temperature. The model, which used compliance as input, was found to fit the strength data only if it the critical fracture energy was allowed to vary with stress rate. Fracture tests using double cantilever beam specimens were conducted from 300sp°F to 450sp°F over time scales similar to the strength study. The toughness data showed a significant change with loading rate, less variation with temperature, did not form a master curve, and could not be correlated with the fracture model. Since the fracture model did not fit the fracture data, an alternative explanation based on the dilatational strain energy density was proposed. This model produced the same predictions for transverse strength as the fracture model. The dependence of the critical parameter on loading rate severely limits the use of these criteria for developing accelerated tests. This research showed that strength does form a master curve using compliance shift factors from 300sp°F to 400sp°F (but not at

  19. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today. PMID:26219117

  20. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today.

  1. Predictive capability of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

    1984-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems. Previously announced in STAR as N83-22386

  2. A mathematical approach for predicting long-term indoor radon concentrations from short-term measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Ahmady, K.K.; Hintenlang, D.E.

    1995-12-31

    Assessment of long-term radon concentrations from short-term testing results are of significant importance when radon risk assessment and liability issues are considered. These issues are based on the figure of annual exposure to indoor radon while radon measurement practices are mainly followed the EPA short-term testing protocols. A mathematical framework has been developed that facilities non-statistical approach to construct the relationship between the short-term indoor radon measurements and the long term annual indoor radon levels. This approach was based on the application of the time-dependent indoor radon concentrations calculated from the corresponding contributions of indoor radon driving forces for different time periods having a reference starting time. The approach utilizes an analytical procedure that is based on the solutions of the mass balance equation for the radon gas in the indoor environment. The solutions are applied through semi-analytical modeling of time-dependent indoor radon concentrations. This treatment provides a powerful tool and procedure to assess long-term indoor radon concentrations from short-term testing results.

  3. Long-Term Prediction of Large Earthquakes: When Does Quasi-Periodic Behavior Occur?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sykes, L. R.

    2003-12-01

    every great earthquake. The 2002 Working Group on large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region followed Ellsworth et al. (1999) in adopting much larger values of CV for several critical fault segments and underestimating their likelihood of rupture in the next 30 years. The Working Group also gives considerable weight to a Poisson model, which is in conflict with both renewal processes involving slow stress accumulation and with values of CV near 0.2. The failure of the Parkfield prediction has greatly influenced views in the U.S. about long-term forecasts. The model of the repeated breaking of a single asperity is incorrect since past Parkfield shocks of about magnitude 6 likely did not rupture the same part of the San Andreas fault.

  4. Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koivisto, Juha; Ovaska, Markus; Miksic, Amandine; Laurson, Lasse; Alava, Mikko J.

    2016-08-01

    Materials flow—under creep or constant loads—and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability.

  5. Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials.

    PubMed

    Koivisto, Juha; Ovaska, Markus; Miksic, Amandine; Laurson, Lasse; Alava, Mikko J

    2016-08-01

    Materials flow-under creep or constant loads-and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability. PMID:27627383

  6. Computer program for predicting creep behavior of bodies of revolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, R.; Greenbaum, G.

    1971-01-01

    Computer program, CRAB, uses finite-element method to calculate creep behavior and predict steady-state stresses in an arbitrary body of revolution subjected to a time-dependent axisymmetric load. Creep strains follow a time hardening law and a Prandtl-Reuss stress-strain relationship.

  7. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  8. Finite element modeling of long-term fluid-structure interaction problems in geological media

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.A.

    1980-01-01

    A model is developed to predict long-term thermal creep and creep rupture in geological structures under multiaxial stress states and under elevated temperature conditions. An example of the method is given showing the behavior of the crust and mantle while undergoing intrusion by a low density diaper. (ACR)

  9. Early behavioral adherence predicts short and long-term weight loss in the POUNDS LOST study.

    PubMed

    Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Han, Hongmei; Champagne, Catherine M; Allen, Ray; Leblanc, Eric; Ryan, Donna H; Rood, Jennifer; McManus, Katherine; Laranjo, Nancy; Carey, Vincent J; Loria, Catherine M; Bray, George A; Sacks, Frank M

    2010-08-01

    The primary aim of this study was to test the association of early (first 6 months) adherence related to diet, self-monitoring, and attendance with changes in adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors. This study used data from the 24-month POUNDS LOST trial that tested the efficacy of four dietary macronutrient compositions for short-and long-term weight loss. A computer tracking system was used to record data on eight indicator variables related to adherence. Using canonical correlations at the 6 and 24 month measurement periods, early behavioral adherence was associated with changes in percent weight loss and waist circumference at 6 months (R = 0.52) and 24 months (R = 0.37), but was not associated with cardiovascular disease risk factor levels. Early dietary adherence was associated with changes in insulin at 6 months (R = 0.19), but not at 24 months (R = 0.08, ns). Early dietary adherence was not associated with changes in adiposity.

  10. Exome Sequencing and Prediction of Long-Term Kidney Allograft Function

    PubMed Central

    Mesnard, Laurent; Muthukumar, Thangamani; Burbach, Maren; Li, Carol; Shang, Huimin; Dadhania, Darshana; Lee, John R.; Xiang, Jenny; Suberbielle, Caroline; Carmagnat, Maryvonnick; Ouali, Nacera; Rondeau, Eric; Abecassis, Michael M.; Suthanthiran, Manikkam

    2016-01-01

    Current strategies to improve graft outcome following kidney transplantation consider information at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loci. Cell surface antigens, in addition to HLA, may serve as the stimuli as well as the targets for the anti-allograft immune response and influence long-term graft outcomes. We therefore performed exome sequencing of DNA from kidney graft recipients and their living donors and estimated all possible cell surface antigens mismatches for a given donor/recipient pair by computing the number of amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins. We designated this tally as the allogenomics mismatch score (AMS). We examined the association between the AMS and post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using mixed models, considering transplants from three independent cohorts (a total of 53 donor-recipient pairs, 106 exomes, and 239 eGFR measurements). We found that the AMS has a significant effect on eGFR (mixed model, effect size across the entire range of the score: -19.4 [-37.7, -1.1], P = 0.0042, χ2 = 8.1919, d.f. = 1) that is independent of the HLA-A, B, DR matching, donor age, and time post-transplantation. The AMS effect is consistent across the three independent cohorts studied and similar to the strong effect size of donor age. Taken together, these results show that the AMS, a novel tool to quantify amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins in individual donor/recipient pair, is a strong, robust predictor of long-term graft function in kidney transplant recipients. PMID:27684477

  11. Twenty four hour pulse pressure predicts long term recurrence in acute stroke patients

    PubMed Central

    Tsivgoulis, G; Spengos, K; Zakopoulos, N; Manios, E; Xinos, K; Vassilopoulos, D; Vemmos, K

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: The impact of different blood pressure (BP) components during the acute stage of stroke on the risk of recurrent stroke is controversial. The present study aimed to investigate by 24 hour BP monitoring a possible association between acute BP values and long term recurrence. Methods: A total of 339 consecutive patients with first ever acute stroke underwent 24 hour BP monitoring within 24 hours of ictus. Known stroke risk factors and clinical findings on admission were documented. Patients given antihypertensive medication during BP monitoring were excluded. The outcome of interest during the one year follow up was recurrent stroke. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyse association of casual and 24 hour BP recordings with one year recurrence after adjusting for stroke risk factors, baseline clinical characteristics, and secondary prevention therapies. Results: The cumulative one year recurrence rate was 9.2% (95% CI 5.9% to 12.3%). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed age, diabetes mellitus, and 24 hour pulse pressure (PP) as the only significant predictors for stroke recurrence. The relative risk for one year recurrence associated with every 10 mm Hg increase in 24 hour PP was 1.323 (95% CI 1.019 to 1.718, p = 0.036). Higher casual PP levels were significantly related to an increased risk of one year recurrence on univariate analysis, but not in the multivariate Cox regression model. Conclusions: Elevated 24 hour PP levels in patients with acute stroke are independently associated with higher risk of long term recurrence. Further research is required to investigate whether the risk of recurrent stroke can be reduced to a greater extent by decreasing the pulsatile component of BP in patients with acute stroke. PMID:16170077

  12. Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

    1979-01-01

    The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

  13. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  14. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  15. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-07-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  16. Long-term Creep Behavior (1928-2002) of the Hayward Fault at Depth in the Claremont Water Tunnel, Berkeley, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cain, W. J.; Hampton, J. L.

    2003-12-01

    The Claremont Tunnel, a nine foot horseshoe shaped water tunnel conveying up to 175 million gallons per day (mgd) of treated drinking water to 800,000 residents on the east side of San Francisco Bay, crosses the Hayward Fault approximately 850 feet from the west portal of the tunnel. Creep along the fault has offset the tunnel at a depth of about 130 feet below the ground surface. Completed in 1928, the tunnel has undergone two inspections (1966 and 2002) in which detailed survey measurements have been made of the creep movements of the fault. There have been few opportunities to secure creep measurements below the ground surface. This paper will present the results of the two surveys showing the creep that has occurred at a depth of 130 feet and give time-based creep rates based on survey measurements. It will compare these measured creep rates with the tectonic creep model developed by NOAA. Due to the large time interval between the two surveys, surveying technology has dramatically changed. A discussion of the techniques used in each survey will be presented with discussions of how current technology compares with historical methods and what impact this has on the results.

  17. Importance of long-term cycles for predicting water level dynamics in natural lakes.

    PubMed

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes.

  18. Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

    PubMed

    Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test. PMID:27536535

  19. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  20. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    PubMed

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families. PMID:24991899

  1. Rapid decrease in tumor perfusion following VEGF blockade predicts long-term tumor growth inhibition in preclinical tumor models.

    PubMed

    Eichten, Alexandra; Adler, Alexander P; Cooper, Blerta; Griffith, Jennifer; Wei, Yi; Yancopoulos, George D; Lin, Hsin Chieh; Thurston, Gavin

    2013-04-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a key upstream mediator of tumor angiogenesis, and blockade of VEGF can inhibit tumor angiogenesis and decrease tumor growth. However, not all tumors respond well to anti-VEGF therapy. Despite much effort, identification of early response biomarkers that correlate with long-term efficacy of anti-VEGF therapy has been difficult. These difficulties arise in part because the functional effects of VEGF inhibition on tumor vessels are still unclear. We therefore assessed rapid molecular, morphologic and functional vascular responses following treatment with aflibercept (also known as VEGF Trap or ziv-aflibercept in the United States) in preclinical tumor models with a range of responses to anti-VEGF therapy, including Colo205 human colorectal carcinoma (highly sensitive), C6 rat glioblastoma (moderately sensitive), and HT1080 human fibrosarcoma (resistant), and correlated these changes to long-term tumor growth inhibition. We found that an overall decrease in tumor vessel perfusion, assessed by dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US), and increases in tumor hypoxia correlated well with long-term tumor growth inhibition, whereas changes in vascular gene expression and microvessel density did not. Our findings support previous clinical studies showing that decreased tumor perfusion after anti-VEGF therapy (measured by DCE-US) correlated with response. Thus, measuring tumor perfusion changes shortly after treatment with VEGF inhibitors, or possibly other anti-angiogenic therapies, may be useful to predict treatment efficacy. PMID:23238831

  2. Potential Role of Plasma Myeloperoxidase Level in Predicting Long-Term Outcome of Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Kaya, Mehmet Gungor; Yalcin, Ridvan; Okyay, Kaan; Poyraz, Fatih; Bayraktar, Nilufer; Pasaoglu, Hatice; Boyaci, Bulent; Cengel, Atiye

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the prognostic importance of plasma myeloperoxidase levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at long-term follow-up, and we analyzed the correlations between plasma myeloperoxidase levels and other biochemical values. We evaluated 73 consecutive patients (56 men; mean age, 56 ±11 yr) diagnosed with acute STEMI and 46 age- and sex-matched healthy control participants. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median myeloperoxidase level (Group 1: plasma myeloperoxidase ≤68 ng/mL; and Group 2: plasma myeloperoxidase >68 ng/mL). Patients were monitored for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which were defined as cardiac death; reinfarction; new hospital admission for angina; heart failure; and revascularization procedures. The mean follow-up period was 25 ± 16 months. Plasma myeloperoxidase levels were higher in STEMI patients than in control participants (82 ± 34 vs 20 ±12 ng/mL; P=0.001). Composite MACE occurred in 12 patients with high myeloperoxidase levels (33%) and in 4 patients with low myeloperoxidase levels (11%) (P=0.02). The incidences of nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction and verified cardiac death were higher in the high-mye-loperoxidase group. In multivariate analysis, high plasma myeloperoxidase levels were independent predictors of MACE (odds ratio = 3.843; <95% confidence interval, 1.625–6.563; P=0.003). High plasma myeloperoxidase levels identify patients with a worse prognosis after acute STEMI at 2-year follow-up. Evaluation of plasma myeloperoxidase levels might be useful in determining patients at high risk of death and MACE who can benefit from further aggressive treatment and closer follow-up. PMID:22949765

  3. Long-Term Incidence and Predicting Factors of Cranioplasty Infection after Decompressive Craniectomy

    PubMed Central

    Im, Sang-Hyuk; Han, Young-Min; Kim, Jong-Tae; Chung, Dong Sup; Park, Young Sup

    2012-01-01

    Objective The predictors of cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy have not yet been fully characterized. The objective of the current study was to compare the long-term incidences of surgical site infection according to the graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy, and to determine the associated factors of cranioplasty infection. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess graft infection in patients who underwent cranioplasty after decompressive craniectomy between 2001 and 2011 at a single-center. From a total of 197 eligible patients, 131 patients undergoing 134 cranioplasties were assessed for event-free survival according to graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression methods were employed, with cranioplasty infection identified as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were also evaluated, including autogenous bone resorption, epidural hematoma, subdural hematoma and brain contusion. Results The median follow-up duration was 454 days (range 10 to 3900 days), during which 14 (10.7%) patients suffered cranioplasty infection. There was no significant difference between the two groups for event-free survival rate for cranioplasty infection with either a cryopreserved or artificial bone graft (p=0.074). Intergroup differences according to cranioplasty time after craniectomy were also not observed (p=0.083). Poor neurologic outcome at cranioplasty significantly affected the development of cranioplasty infection (hazard ratio 5.203, 95% CI 1.075 to 25.193, p=0.04). Conclusion Neurologic status may influence cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy. A further prospective study about predictors of cranioplasty infection including graft material and cranioplasty timing is necessary. PMID:23133731

  4. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    PubMed

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  5. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with carpets that are not new, (2) calculate the time-dependent VOC distributions in a test chamber or room, and (3) consider the temperature effect on VOC emissions. Based on small-scale chamber data, both models were used to examine the VOC emissions under different temperatures from polypropene styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) bitumen-backed carpet. The short-term predictions show that the VOC emissions under different temperatures can be modeled solely by changing the carpet diffusion coefficients. A formulation of the Arrhenius relation was used to correlate the dependence of carpet diffusion coefficient with temperature. The long-term predictions show that it would take several years to bake out the VOCs, and temperature would have a major impact on the bake-out time.

  6. Empirical mode decomposition of multiple ECG leads for catheter ablation long-term outcome prediction in persistent atrial fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo-Munoz, Antonio R; Tome, Ana M; Latcu, Decebal G; Zarzoso, Vicente

    2015-01-01

    Predictive models arouse increasing interest in clinical practice, not only to improve successful intervention rates but also to extract information of diverse physiological disorders. This is the case of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia in adults. Currently, catheter ablation (CA) is one of the preferred therapies to face this disease. However, selecting the best responders to CA by standard noninvasive techniques such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) remains a challenge. This work presents different predictive models for determining long-term CA outcome based on the dominant frequency (DF) of atrial activity measured in the ECG. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is employed to obtain the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) composing the ECG signal in each lead. The IMF DFs computed in multiple leads are then combined into a logistic regression (LR) model. The IMF DF features are discriminant enough to reach 79% accuracy for long-term CA outcome prediction, outperforming other methods based on DF computation. Our study shows EEMD as a valuable alternative to extract clinically relevant spectral information from AF ECGs and confirms the advantage of LR to build multivariate predictive models as compared with univariate analysis.

  7. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    SciTech Connect

    Wicks, G G

    2001-03-28

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  8. Methodology for predicting long-term fuel-cell performance from short-term testing. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, D.; Farooque, M.; Maru, H.; Ware, C.

    1981-08-01

    The objective of this program was to develop a methodology for predicting long-term fuel cell performance from short-term testing, utilizing a perturbation testing technique. The technique applies small changes of predetermined levels in a predetermined sequence to the operating variables such that the decay mechanisms are not altered. This technique was tested on the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC), because this technology is approaching a mature stage. The initial series of perturbation tests appear to be reasonably successful and a methodology is now available for further refinements. The progress made during the study is detailed.

  9. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  10. Estimation of long-term genetic improvement for gerbera using the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) procedure.

    PubMed

    Huang, H; Harding, J; Byrne, T; Famula, T

    1995-10-01

    Long-term genetic improvement is measured by the selection response predicted from estimates of narrow-sense heritability. Accurate estimates of selection response require partitioning the change of population mean into genetic and environmental components. A selection experiment for cut-flower yield was conducted for 16 generations in the Davis population of gerbera (Gerbera hybrida, Compositae). Breeding values were estimated for individual plants in the population using the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) procedure. Genetic change in each generation was calculated from the breeding values of individual plants. The results of this study indicate that long-term selection was successful and necessary for the genetic improvement in cut-flower yield. Genetic improvement in mean breeding value over 16 generations was 33 flowers. Mean breeding values increased monotonically with an S-shape pattern while environmental effects fluctuated from generation to generation. Results predict that cut-flower yield in the Davis population of gerbera will continue to respond to selection.

  11. Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Xiang-Qi; Guo, Xiang; Qian, Chao-Nan; Wu, Pei-Hong; Huang, Pei-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Nomogram for predicting more than a 5-year survival for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was lacking. This study aimed to develop the new nomograms to predict long-term survival in these patients. Results The median follow-up time for training set and test set was 95.2 months and 133.3 months, respectively. The significant predictors for death were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and radiotherapy techniques. For predicting recurrence, age, gender, T stage, LDH, and radiotherapy techniques were significant predictors, whereas age, gender, BMI, T stage, N stage and LDH were significant predictors for distant metastasis. The calibration curves showed the good agreements between nomogram-predicted and actual survival. The c-indices for predicting death, recurrence, and distant metastases between nomograms and the TNM staging system were 0.767 VS.0.686 (P<0.001), 0.655 VS.0.585 (P<0.001), and 0.881 VS.0.754 (P<0.001), respectively. These results were further confirmed in the test set. Methods On the basis of a retrospective study of 1593 patients (training set) who received radiotherapy alone or concurrent chemoradiotherapy from 2000 to 2004, significant predictors were identified and incorporated to build the nomograms. The calibration curves of nomogram-predicted survival versus the actual survival were plotted and reviewed. Bootstrap validation was performed to calculate the concordance index (c-index). These models were further validated in an independent prospective trial (test set, n=400). Conclusion The established nomograms suggest more-accurate long-term prediction for patients with non-metastatic NPC. PMID:27102440

  12. Creep-rupture behavior of candidate Stirling engine alloys after long-term aging at 760 deg C in low-pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Titran, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    Nine candidate Stirling automotive engine alloys were aged at 760 C for 3500 hr in low pressure hydrogen or argon to determine the resulting effects on mechanical behavior. Candidate heater head tube alloys were CG-27, W545, 12RN72, INCONEL-718, and HS-188 while candidate cast cylinder-regenerator housing alloys were SA-F11, CRM-6D, XF-818, and HS-31. Aging per se is detrimental to the creep rupture and tensile strengths of the iron base alloys. The presence of hydrogen does not significantly contribute to strength degradation. Based percent highway driving cycle; CG-27 has adequate 3500 hr - 870 C creep rupture strength and SA-Fll, CRM-6D, and XF-818 have adequate 3500 hr - 775 C creep rupture strength.

  13. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    The properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally in simulated space environments in order to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. Graphite-epoxy composites were exposed to thermal cycling. Adhesive foam tapes were subjected to a vacuum environment. Metal-matrix composites were tested for baseline data. Predictive modeling designed to include strength and aging effects on composites, polymeric films, and metals under such space conditions (including the atomic oxygen environment) is discussed. The Korel 8031-00 high strength adhesive foam tape was shown to be superior to the other two tested.

  14. Change in high-temperature strength properties of 12Kh1MF steel in long-term loading under creep conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shron, R.Z.; Mints, I.I.; Shul`gina, N.G.

    1995-01-01

    Stress-rupture strength tests were made of metal steam pipe (12Kh1MF steel) in various conditions, the original, after aging under laboratory conditions (580{degrees}C, 10,000 h), and after long service. It was shown that the more the steel is hardened by heat treatment or cold plastic working in the original condition, the less it hardens in creep. It was established that softening in creep of steel with a moderate yield strength is caused primarily by aging and with a high yield strength by pore formation.

  15. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

  16. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  17. Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

    PubMed Central

    Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

  18. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb2 +) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV = ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb2+, considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, and K+) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca2 + for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV = 250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  19. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater.

    PubMed

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb(2+)) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV=ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb(2+), considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+)) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca(2+) for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV=250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  20. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

  1. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome. PMID:27418297

  2. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  3. Oxidative stress predicts long-term resight probability and reproductive success in Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea)

    PubMed Central

    Costantini, David; Dell'Omo, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A major challenge in conservation physiology is to find out biomarkers that reliably reflect individual variation in wear and tear. Recent work has suggested that biomarkers of oxidative stress may provide an additional tool to assess the health state of individuals and to predict fitness perspectives. In this study, we assessed whether three biomarkers of plasma oxidative status predicted the following factors: (i) the resight probability as breeder in the next seasons; and (ii) the cumulative reproductive output over multiple years in Scopoli’s shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) using a 7 year individual-based data set. Our results show that shearwaters having higher levels of a marker of oxidative damage (reactive oxygen metabolites) in 2008 had a lower resight probability in the next years and a lower number of chicks raised from 2008 to 2014. In contrast, two biomarkers of antioxidant defences (non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity of plasma and thiols) did not have any predictive value. Increased concentrations of plasma reactive oxygen metabolites, together with the significant individual repeatability over time in this metric of oxidative stress found in numerous studies, suggest that this metric might serve as a blood-derived biomarker for health and fitness perspectives in birds and, possibly, also in other taxa. PMID:27293709

  4. Can assessors and therapists predict the outcome of long-term psychotherapy in borderline personality disorder?

    PubMed

    Spinhoven, Philip; Giesen-Bloo, Josephine; van Dyck, Richard; Arntz, Arnoud

    2008-06-01

    Surprisingly few studies have investigated the accuracy of prognostic assessments of therapy outcome by clinicians. The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between clinicians' prognostic assessments and patient characteristics and treatment outcome. Seventy-one patients with a borderline personality disorder randomly allocated to schema-focused therapy (SFT) or transference-focused psychotherapy (TFP) were assessed every 3 months for 3 years. Prognostic assessments proved to be unrelated to patients' biographical (i.e., age, gender, education level, and employment level) and clinical characteristics (i.e., number of Axis I and Axis II diagnoses, and severity of psychiatric symptoms or borderline personality pathology). Clinical assessors as well as therapists rated the probability of success for SFT to be higher than for TFP. Prospective assessments of assessors and therapists accurately predicted different indices of outcome above and independent of patient characteristics. The prediction of outcome in the TFP condition in particular proved to be valid. Identifying prognostic markers of treatment outcome as used by clinicians in their prognostic assessments may improve current prediction models and patient-treatment matching.

  5. Comfortable loudness level: stimulus effects, long-term reliability, and predictability.

    PubMed

    Cox, R M

    1989-12-01

    This paper reports the results of a series of investigations of comfortable loudness levels with particular reference to their application to hearing aid gain prescriptions. Experiment 1 studied the effects of several stimulus waveforms, bandwidths, and durations on comfortable loudness levels for normal and hearing impaired listeners. Speech band comfort levels were found to be significantly higher than equal-duration noise band or warble tone comfort levels. Comfortable loudness levels were found to be independent of warble tone modulation parameters and of stimulus bandwidth (stimuli did not exceed critical bandwidths). In Experiment 2, reliability of comfortable loudness levels was evaluated in hearing-impaired subjects over two consecutive 1-year periods. Results indicated that comfortable loudness levels were slightly less reliable than thresholds. In addition, the results were consistent with a hypothesis that exposure to amplified sound produces a small increase in comfortable loudness levels. In Experiment 3, data from 67 hearing-impaired subjects were used to develop regression equations for prediction of comfortable loudness levels. Thresholds at the test frequencies were combined with comfortable loudness data at 500 Hz and 4,000 Hz. The prediction method was then evaluated using a new group of 25 subjects. Accuracy of predictions of comfort levels was substantially better with the new method than with an older method that relied exclusively on threshold data. Relevance of the outcomes to hearing aid fitting procedures is discussed.

  6. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  7. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  8. Predicting long-term disability in low back injured workers presenting to a spine consultant.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, T R; Spratt, K F; Lehmann, K K

    1993-06-15

    Low back pain (LBP) is the most common, costly, and disabling musculoskeletal condition. Although most LBP patients recover within two months, 2-3% eventually develop disabling chronic low back pain (DCLBP). Due to the prevalence of DCLBP problems, models have been developed to predict which acute low back pain patients are predisposed to the problems associated with this condition. Many see the development of these models as a first step that must be taken before useful approaches for containing and reducing the problem can be conceptualized, implemented, and tested. A recent publication by Cats-Baril and Frymoyer considered this specific problem. While the results of their study indicate considerable success in predicting DCLBP patients, the high prediction rates they obtained may be spurious because of the characteristics of their sampled patient population in conjunction with some of the predictors they found useful in identifying DCLBP patients. The purpose of the present study was to focus on the crucial patient population (i.e., acute LBP patients who perceive their problem as work-related and who have been unable to work for more than two but less than six weeks), and evaluate the ability of various personal, medical, occupational, and psychological factors to predict predisposition to DCLBP. Fifty-five patients referred by occupational physicians were evaluated and followed successfully for at least 6 months. Patients in the study were given a physical examination that included Spratt et al's assessment of pain behavior. They were then asked to fill out an extensive battery of self-report questionnaires, addressing issues associated with personal demographics, health history, work requirements, job satisfaction, injury information, and pain/function factors. At the 6-month follow-up, a structured telephone interview was used to obtain outcome information regarding patient status, including ability to return to work and general outcomes of treatment

  9. Evaluation and prediction of long term space environmental effects on non-metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepic, J. A.

    1980-01-01

    The effects of prolonged spacecraft materials were determined and the results compared with predicted behavior. The adhesion and dielectric properties of poly-thermaleze and therm-amid magnet wire insulation were studied. The tensile properties of Lexan, polyurethane, polyethelyne, lucite, and nylon were studied well as the flexure and tensile characteristic of Adlock 851, a phenolic laminate. The volume resistivity of Cho-seal, a conductive elastomer was also a examined. Tables show the time exposed at thermal vacuum, and the high, low, and average MPA and KSI.

  10. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on non metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    Predictive modeling of environmental conditions on nonmetallic materials was studied. The in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with carbon and osmium, the laboratory and in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with polymeric films and the effect of electron irradiation on the rates of oxidation are discussed. No information is found that can be used to model such effects on composites. The effects of the space environment on thermal control coatings and its effect on the space station are examined.

  11. Prediction of long-term radiation kinetics of transmission spectra of commerical optical glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusarov, Andrei I.; Doyle, Dominic B.; Fruit, Michel; Kinet, Damien P.

    2002-09-01

    We analyze the applicability of a number of exponent-type phenomenological kinetics for transmission degradation prediction in commercial optical glasses during and after irradiation. The analysis is based on post-radiation transmission measurements over a 5 years time interval of a commercial boro-silicate glass (BK7, Schott). A conclusion is drawn that the choice should be made between the stretched-exponential and the multi-exponential functions. We apply those kinetics to simulate kinetics of BK7 glass transmission spectra subject to Co60 gamma-radiation in the framework of the previously developed phenomenological model. Calculated transmission spectra agree well with our experimental data.

  12. Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism after long-term incarceration.

    PubMed

    Manchak, Sarah M; Skeem, Jennifer Lynne; Douglas, Kevin S

    2008-12-01

    Assessing an inmate's risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

  13. Long-term potential nonlinear predictability of El Niño-La Niña events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astudillo, H. F.; Abarca-del-Río, R.; Borotto, F. A.

    2016-08-01

    We show that the monthly recorded history (1866-2014) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be correctly described as a dynamic system supporting a potential nonlinear predictability well beyond the spring barrier. Long-term predictability is strongly connected to a detailed knowledge about the topology of the attractor obtained by embedding the SOI index in a wavelet base state space. By utilizing the state orbits on the attractor, we show that the information contained in the SOI is sufficient to provide nonlinear attractor information, allowing the detection of predictability for longer than a year: 2, 3, and 4 years in advance throughout the record with an acceptable error. This is possible due to the fact that the lower-frequency variability of the SOI presents long-term positive autocorrelation. Thus, by using complementary methods, we confirm that the reconstructed attractor of the low-frequency part (lower than 1/year) of SOI time series cannot be attributed to stochastic influences. Furthermore, we establish its multifractality. As an example of the capabilities of the methodology, we investigate a few specific El Niño (1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998) and La Niña (1973-1973, 1988-1989 and 2010-2011) events. Our results indicate that each of these present several equivalent temporal structures over other eras of these 149 years (1866-2014). Accordingly, none of these cases, including extreme events, presents temporal singularity. We conclude that the methodology's simplicity of implementation and ease of use makes it suitable for studying nonlinear predictability in any area where observations are similar to those describing the ENSO phenomenon.

  14. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buddemeier, R. W.; Smith, S. V.

    1988-05-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long-term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function. If the scientific benefits from this uncontrolled global experiment are to be maximized, it will be necessary to establish a permanent international coordinating body to assist with the identification and preservation of long-term study sites and to provide guidelines for baseline data surverys, methods selection and comparison, and other procedures and decisions.

  15. Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, Kenneth J.

    2001-01-01

    Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss

  16. From Gaged to Ungaged- Predicting Long-term Environmental Flows, and Ecosystems Responses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, A.; Adams, S. K.; Stein, E. D.; Mazor, R.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Modern management needs, such as water supply, quality, and ecosystem protection place numerous demands on instream flows. Many regions are interested in developing numeric flow criteria as a way of ensuring maintenance of flow patterns that protect biological resources while meeting other demands. Developing flow criteria requires the capacity to generate reliable time series of the daily flow at any stream reach of interest and to relate flow patterns to biological indicators of stream health. Most stream reaches are not gaged, and it is impractical to develop detailed models for all reaches where flow alteration needs to be evaluated. We present a novel mechanistic approach to efficiently predict flows and flow alteration at all ungaged stream locations within a region of interest. We used an "ensemble approach" whereby a series of regionally representative models were developed and calibrated. New sites of interest are assigned to one of the ensemble models based on similarity of catchment properties. For southern California, we selected 43 gaged sites representing the range of geomorphology, and watershed characteristics of streams in the region. For each gaged site, we developed a hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) to predict daily flows for a period representing dry, wet and normal precipitation. The final goal is to relate flow alterations to ecological responses, the models were calibrated to three separate performance metrics that reflect conditions important for instream biological communities- proportion of low flow days, flashiness and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for overall model performance. We cross-validated the models using a "jack-knife" approach. Models were assigned to novel 840 bioassessment sites based on the results of a Random Forest model that identified catchment properties that most affected the runoff patterns. Daily flow data for existing and "reference conditions" was simulated for a 23-year period for current and reference (undeveloped

  17. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    PubMed

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  18. Long-term prediction of achievement and attitudes in mathematics and reading.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, H W; Newman, R S

    1986-06-01

    The purpose of the longitudinal study was to investigate the prediction of children's academic achievement on the basis of cognitive tasks given prior to kindergarten, and academic attitudes on the basis of teachers' and mothers' ratings of the children's general cognitive abilities and actual achievement. Subjects were tested initially before entering kindergarten; from 105 to 154 of the 255 kindergarten children were followed through grades 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10. A subset of cognitive tasks maintained a high relation to high school achievement scores, especially in reading. Tenth-grade self-concept of ability, expectancy for success, value of success, and perception of task difficulty showed effects of sex and academic content area, with boys generally being more favorable toward math and girls more favorable toward reading. Children's attitudes were related both to mothers' earlier ratings of their children's cognitive abilities and actual achievement scores; this was especially the case for girls. There was a negative relation between mothers' ratings and girls' attitudes toward mathematics. Sex differences in all measures throughout the 11-year period are reviewed. PMID:3720396

  19. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    PubMed

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  20. A Simpler Creatinine Index Can Predict Long-Term Survival in Chinese Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Szu-Ying; Yang, Chung-Wei; Hung, Szu-Chun; Chiang, Chih-Kang; Huang, Jenq-Wen; Hung, Kuan-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Background Low lean body mass (LBM) is an indicator of malnutrition inflammation syndrome, which is common in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The creatinine index (CI) has been validated as a reliable method to estimate LBM and evaluate the protein-energy status of HD patients. However, the traditional creatinine index formula was complex. We sought to investigate the impact of CI derived from a new simple formula on Chinese HD patient outcomes. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 1269 patients who initiated HD between February 1981 and February 2012 and followed them until the end of February 2013. CI was calculated using the simple creatinine kinetic model (CKM) formula. Multiple linear regression analysis and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups. Results The 1269 HD patients were categorized into 3 groups according to the tertiles of calculated CI between men and women. Each group consisted of 423 patients (50.6% men, 49.4% women). Patients in the highest sex-specific tertile of CI had longer overall survival (HR, 0.46; P 0.002). BMI did not significantly associate with survival after adjustment (HR,0.99; P 0.613). Conclusions CI derived from the simple CKM formula serves as a good parameter than BMI to predict the survival of HD patients. The formula could extend its convenient use in clinical practice for HD patients. PMID:27780214

  1. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming

    PubMed Central

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Elumeeva, Tatiana G.; Onipchenko, Vladimir G.; Shidakov, Islam I.; Salpagarova, Fatima S.; Khubiev, Anzor B.; Tekeev, Dzhamal K.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year’s shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  2. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    PubMed

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change.

  3. Dominant Frequency Increase Rate Predicts Transition from Paroxysmal to Long-Term Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Martins, Raphael P.; Kaur, Kuljeet; Hwang, Elliot; Ramirez, Rafael J.; Willis, B. Cicero; Filgueiras-Rama, David; Ennis, Steven R.; Takemoto, Yoshio; Ponce-Balbuena, Daniela; Zarzoso, Manuel; O’Connell, Ryan P.; Musa, Hassan; Guerrero-Serna, Guadalupe; Avula, Uma Mahesh R.; Swartz, Michael F.; Bhushal, Sandesh; Deo, Makarand; Pandit, Sandeep V.; Berenfeld, Omer; Jalife, José

    2014-01-01

    Background Little is known about the mechanisms underlying the transition from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). In an ovine model of long-standing persistent AF (LS-PAF) we tested the hypothesis that the rate of electrical and/or structural remodeling, assessed by dominant frequency (DF) changes, determines the time at which AF becomes persistent. Methods and Results Self-sustained AF was induced by atrial tachypacing. Seven sheep were sacrificed 11.5±2.3 days after the transition to persistent AF and without reversal to sinus rhythm (SR); 7 sheep were sacrificed after 341.3±16.7 days of LS-PAF. Seven sham-operated animals were in SR for 1 year. DF was monitored continuously in each group. RT-PCR, western blotting, patch-clamping and histological analyses were used to determine changes in functional ion channel expression and structural remodeling. Atrial dilatation, mitral valve regurgitation, myocyte hypertrophy, and atrial fibrosis occurred progressively and became statistically significant after the transition to persistent AF, with no evidence for left ventricular dysfunction. DF increased progressively during the paroxysmal-to-persistent AF transition and stabilized when AF became persistent. Importantly, the rate of DF increase (dDF/dt) correlated strongly with the time to persistent AF. Significant action potential duration (APD) abbreviation, secondary to functional ion channel protein expression changes (CaV1.2, NaV1.5 and KV4.2 decrease; Kir2.3 increase), was already present at the transition and persisted for one-year follow up. Conclusions In the sheep model of LS-PAF, the rate of DF increase predicts the time at which AF stabilizes and becomes persistent, reflecting changes in APD and densities of sodium, L-type calcium and inward rectifier currents. PMID:24463369

  4. Serum IL-18 as biomarker in predicting long-term renal outcome among pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematosus patients

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Chao-Yi; Yang, Huang-Yu; Yao, Tsung-Chieh; Liu, Su-Hsun; Huang, Jing-Long

    2016-01-01

    Abstract An urge of biomarker identification is needed to better monitor lupus nephritis (LN) disease activity, guide clinical treatment, and predict patient's long-term outcome. With the proinflammatory effect and its association with inflammasomes, the significance of interleukin-18 (IL-18) among pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematous (pSLE) patient, especially, its importance in predicting long-term renal outcome was investigated. In a pSLE cohort of 96 patients with an average follow-up period of 10.39 ± 3.31 years, clinical data and laboratory workups including serum IL-18 were collected at time of disease onset and 6 months after treatment despite their initial renal status. Through Cox regression analysis, the parameters at baseline and at 6 months posttreatment were carefully analyzed. Average age of all cases was 12.74 ± 3.01 years old and 65 of them underwent renal biopsy at the time of diagnosis. Nine subjects (9.38%) progressed to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and 2 cases (2.08%) died during follow-up. Through multivariate analysis, serum IL-18 level 6 months posttreatment was found to be the most unfavorable factor associating poor clinical outcome despite patient's initial renal status. In addition, the presentation of serum IL-18 in its correlation with SLE global disease activity as well as the presence and severity of LN were all significant (P < 0.001, P = 0.03, and P = 0.02, respectively). The histological classification of LN, however, was not associated with the level of IL-18 among the pSLE patients (P = 0.64). The role of serum IL-18 as biomarker representing global disease activity and status of renal flares among pSLE population was shown for the first time. Additionally, we have identified IL-18 at 6 months posttreatment a novel marker for long-term renal outcome prediction. PMID:27749566

  5. Model-based prediction of the acute and long-term safety profile of naproxen in rats

    PubMed Central

    Sahota, Tarjinder; Sanderson, Ian; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose Despite the increasing importance of biomarkers as predictors of drug effects, toxicology protocols continue to rely on the experimental evidence of adverse events (AEs) as a basis for establishing the link between indicators of safety and drug exposure. Furthermore, biomarkers may facilitate the translation of findings from animals to humans. Combined with a model-based approach, biomarker data have the potential to predict long-term effects arising from prolonged drug exposure. Here, we used naproxen as a paradigm to explore the feasibility of a biomarker-guided approach for the prediction of long-term AEs in humans. Experimental Approach An experimental toxicology protocol was set up for evaluating the effects of naproxen in rats, in which four active doses were tested (7.5, 15, 40 and 80 mg·kg−1). In addition to AE monitoring and histology, a few blood samples were also collected for the assessment of drug exposure, TXB2 and PGE2 levels. Non-linear mixed effects modelling was used to analyse the data and identify covariate factors on the incidence and severity of AEs. Key Results Modelling results showed that besides drug exposure, maximum PGE2 inhibition and treatment duration were also predictors of gastrointestinal ulceration. Although PGE2 levels were clearly linked to the incidence rates, it appeared that ulceration severity is better predicted by measures of drug exposure. Conclusions and Implications These results show that the use of a model-based approach provides the opportunity to integrate pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and toxicity data, enabling optimization of the design, analysis and interpretation of toxicology experiments. PMID:25884765

  6. Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gholamhoseini, Alireza

    2016-03-01

    Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

  7. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  8. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    PubMed

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

  9. Cross-regional prediction of long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Buttle, Jim; Carey, Sean K.; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Shanley, Jamie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2012-09-01

    There is no scientific consensus about how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters is regulated. Here we combine recent literature data from 49 catchments with detailed stream and catchment process information from nine well established research catchments at mid- to high latitudes to examine the question of how climate controls stream water DOC. We show for the first time that mean annual temperature (MAT) in the range from -3° to +10° C has a strong control over the regional stream water DOC concentration in catchments, with highest concentrations in areas ranging between 0° and +3° C MAT. Although relatively large deviations from this model occur for individual streams, catchment topography appears to explain much of this divergence. These findings suggest that the long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change may be more predictable than previously thought.

  10. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive-compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access - prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  11. Use of Authentic, Integrated Dental Implant Components Vital to Predictability and Successful Long-Term Clinical Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hurson, Steve

    2016-07-01

    The accepted requirements for achieving long-term maintenance and performance of implant treatments include properly matched implant system components, a precise fit and connection between the abutment and implant, and appropriate preload. Satisfying these requisites can be predictably achieved when authentic and suitably compatible components that are engineered and marketed as an integrated implant system are placed. To the contrary, intermixing third-party or aftermarket implant components could result in unpredictable sequelae that negatively affect implant treatment outcomes. Because implant manufacturers strive to balance and integrate all aspects of implant system design (eg, abutment, implant, connections), dentists should understand how and why individual implant component characteristics (eg, fatigue strength, fracture resistance) affect the strength and integrity of the overall implant complex. PMID:27548397

  12. D-dimer for prediction of long-term outcome in cryptogenic stroke patients with patent foramen ovale.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Dae; Song, Dongbeom; Nam, Hyo Suk; Lee, Kijeong; Yoo, Joonsang; Hong, Geu-Ru; Lee, Hye Sun; Nam, Chung Mo; Heo, Ji Hoe

    2015-08-31

    Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a potential cause of cryptogenic stroke, given the possibility of paradoxical embolism from venous to systemic circulation. D-dimer level is used to screen venous thrombosis. We investigated the risk of embolism and mortality according to the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke patients. A total of 570 first-ever cryptogenic stroke patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography were included in this study. D-dimer was assessed using latex agglutination assay during admission. The association of long-term outcomes with the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels was investigated. PFO was detected in 241 patients (42.3 %). During a mean 34.0 ± 22.8 months of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 58 (10.2 %) patients, ischaemic stroke in 33 (5.8 %), and pulmonary thromboembolism in 6 (1.1 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was an independent predictor for recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with PFO (hazard ratio 5.341, 95 % confidence interval 1.648-17.309, p=0.005), but not in those without PFO. However, in patients without PFO, a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was independently related with all-cause mortality. The risk of pulmonary thromboembolism tended to be high in patients with high D-dimer levels, regardless of PFO. Elevated D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke were predictive of the long-term outcome, which differed according to the presence of PFO. The coexistence of PFO and a high D-dimer level increased the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke. The D-dimer test in cryptogenic stroke patients may be useful for predicting outcomes and deciding treatment strategy.

  13. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury.

  14. Creep-rupture behavior of seven iron-base alloys after long term aging at 760 deg in low pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzke, W. R.; Stephens, J. R.

    1980-01-01

    Seven candidate iron-base alloys for heater tube application in the Stirling automotive engine were aged for 3500 hours at 760 C in argon and hydrogen. Aging degraded the tensile and creep-rupture properties. The presence of hydrogen during aging caused additional degradiation of the rupture strength in fine grain alloys. Based on current design criteria for the Mod 1 Stirling engine, N-155 and 19-9DL are considered the only alloys in this study with strengths adequate for heater tube service at 760 C.

  15. Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

    PubMed Central

    Mendivil, Joan; Andreu, Montserrat; Hernández, Cristina; Castells, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50–69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010–2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies. Results An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity. Conclusions Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies. PMID:27732635

  16. Predicting plant uptake and toxicity of lead (Pb) in long-term contaminated soils from derived transfer functions.

    PubMed

    Kader, Mohammed; Lamb, Dane T; Mahbub, Khandaker Rayhan; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2016-08-01

    Regulatory assessment of lead (Pb) in contaminated soils is still expressed primarily as total Pb concentrations in soil. In this study, we estimated effective concentrations (ECx) of Pb to Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber) focusing primarily on pore-water Pb data from 10 different soils after 12 weeks ageing. Phytotoxicity expressed in terms of Pb(2+) was observed to occur in the nanomolar range in neutral to alkaline soils (EC50 values 90 to 853 nM) and micromolar levels for acidic soils (EC50 values 7.35 to 9.66 μM). Internal Pb concentrations relating to toxicity (PT50) in roots and shoots also decreased with increasing pore-water pH (R (2) = 0.52 to 0.53). From a series of dose-response studies, we developed transfer functions predicting Pb uptake in C. sativa and we validated these functions with long-term Pb contaminated soils. The significant independent parameters were pore-water Pb(2+) and dissolved Pb plus dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The observed RMSE for the Pb-DOC model and Pb(2+) were 2.6 and 8.8, respectively. The Pb-DOC model tended to under-predict Pb, whilst Pb(2+) tended to over-predict accumulation despite reasonable RMSE values. Further validation is needed in soils with higher pore-water Pb solubility. PMID:27117154

  17. Nitrate enrichment in groundwater from long-term intensive agriculture: its mechanistic pathways and prediction through modeling.

    PubMed

    Kundu, Manik Chandra; Mandal, Biswapati

    2009-08-01

    Nitrate (NO(3-)N) contamination of drinking groundwater is a serious worldwide problem. We studied the mechanistic pathways of the nitrate enrichment in a drinking groundwater system of an intensively cultivated district in India and predicted the enrichment through modeling. Analysis of groundwater samples (3472) showed that the nitrate content during the postmonsoon season (0.87 mg L(-1)) was higher than the nitrate content during the premonsoon season (0.58 mg L(-1)). It decreased with increasing depth of the aquifers sampled (r = -0.38), decreasing N-fertilizer application rate (r = 0.74), increasing average root length of the cropping systems followed (r = -0.54), and their efficacy for N-utilization (r = -0.61). Soil properties (136 representative samples) like bulk density (r = -0.72), hydraulic conductivity (r = 0.56), clay (r = -0.29), organic carbon (r = 0.72), NO(3-)N (r = 0.82), and potentially plantavailable soil N (pAvN) (r = 0.82) added to the variability of its enrichment. Prediction of nitrate enrichment by multiple regression equations with selected mastervariables explained 83.6-85.8% of the variability. Results indicate that potentially plant available soil nitrogen, commonly measured for fertilizer recommendation, may help in predicting nitrate enrichment under long-term intensively cultivated alluvial agroecosystems.

  18. Long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity daily time series using singular spectrum analysis and fuzzy descriptor models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirmomeni, M.; Kamaliha, E.; Shafiee, M.; Lucas, C.

    2009-09-01

    Of the various conditions that affect space weather, Sun-driven phenomena are the most dominant. Cyclic solar activity has a significant effect on the Earth, its climate, satellites, and space missions. In recent years, space weather hazards have become a major area of investigation, especially due to the advent of satellite technology. As such, the design of reliable alerting and warning systems is of utmost importance, and international collaboration is needed to develop accurate short-term and long-term prediction methodologies. Several methods have been proposed and implemented for the prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices, but problems in predicting the exact time and magnitude of such catastrophic events still remain. There are, however, descriptor systems that describe a wider class of systems, including physical models and non-dynamic constraints. It is well known that the descriptor system is much tighter than the state-space expression for representing real independent parametric perturbations. In addition, the fuzzy descriptor models as a generalization of the locally linear neurofuzzy models are general forms that can be trained by constructive intuitive learning algorithms. Here, we propose a combined model based on fuzzy descriptor models and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) (FD/SSA) to forecast a number of geomagnetic activity indices in a manner that optimizes a fuzzy descriptor model for each of the principal components obtained from singular spectrum analysis and recombines the predicted values so as to transform the geomagnetic activity time series into natural chaotic phenomena. The method has been applied to predict two solar and geomagnetic activity indices: geomagnetic aa and solar wind speed (SWS) of the solar wind index. The results demonstrate the higher power of the proposed method-- compared to other methods -- for predicting solar activity.

  19. Mortality Risk Prediction by an Insurance Company and Long-Term Follow-Up of 62,000 Men

    PubMed Central

    Sijbrands, Eric J. G.; Tornij, Erik; Homsma, Sietske J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the predicted with the observed mortality of men who applied for life insurance, and determined the prognostic value of the risk assessment. Methods Long-term follow-up was available for 62,334 male applicants whose mortality risk was predicted with medical evaluation and they were assigned to five groups with increasing risk from 1 to 5. We calculated all cause standardized mortality ratios relative to the Dutch population and compared groups with Cox's regression. We compared the discriminative ability of risk assessments as indicated by a concordance index (c). Results In 844,815 person years we observed 3,433 deaths. The standardized mortality relative to the Dutch male population was 0.76 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.78). The standardized mortality ratios ranged from 0.54 in risk group 1 to 2.37 in group 5. A large number of risk factors and diseases were significantly associated with increased mortality. The algorithm of prediction was significantly, but only slightly better than summation of the number of disorders and risk factors (c-index, 0.64 versus 0.60, P<0.001). Conclusions Men applying for insurance clearly had better survival relative to the general population. Readily available medical evaluation enabled accurate prediction of the mortality risk of large groups, but the deceased men could not have been identified with the applied prediction method. PMID:19421319

  20. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  1. Field theory and diffusion creep predictions in polycrystalline aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villani, A.; Busso, E. P.; Forest, S.

    2015-07-01

    In polycrystals, stress-driven vacancy diffusion at high homologous temperatures leads to inelastic deformation. In this work, a novel continuum mechanics framework is proposed to describe the strain fields resulting from such a diffusion-driven process in a polycrystalline aggregate where grains and grain boundaries are explicitly considered. The choice of an anisotropic eigenstrain in the grain boundary region provides the driving force for the diffusive creep processes. The corresponding inelastic strain rate is shown to be related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. Dislocation driven deformation is then introduced as an additional mechanism, through standard crystal plasticity constitutive equations. The fully coupled diffusion-mechanical model is implemented into the finite element method and then used to describe the biaxial creep behaviour of FCC polycrystalline aggregates. The corresponding results revealed for the first time that such a coupled diffusion-stress approach, involving the gradient of the vacancy flux, can accurately predict the well-known macroscopic strain rate dependency on stress and grain size in the diffusion creep regime. They also predict strongly heterogeneous viscoplastic strain fields, especially close to grain boundaries triple junctions. Finally, a smooth transition from Herring and Coble to dislocation creep behaviour is predicted and compared to experimental results for copper.

  2. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V.; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Background Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Results Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not

  3. Refining calibration and predictions of a Bayesian statistical-dynamical model for long term avalanche forecasting using dendrochronological reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckert, Nicolas; Schläppy, Romain; Jomelli, Vincent; Naaim, Mohamed

    2013-04-01

    A crucial step for proposing relevant long-term mitigation measures in long term avalanche forecasting is the accurate definition of high return period avalanches. Recently, "statistical-dynamical" approach combining a numerical model with stochastic operators describing the variability of its inputs-outputs have emerged. Their main interests is to take into account the topographic dependency of snow avalanche runout distances, and to constrain the correlation structure between model's variables by physical rules, so as to simulate the different marginal distributions of interest (pressure, flow depth, etc.) with a reasonable realism. Bayesian methods have been shown to be well adapted to achieve model inference, getting rid of identifiability problems thanks to prior information. An important problem which has virtually never been considered before is the validation of the predictions resulting from a statistical-dynamical approach (or from any other engineering method for computing extreme avalanches). In hydrology, independent "fossil" data such as flood deposits in caves are sometimes confronted to design discharges corresponding to high return periods. Hence, the aim of this work is to implement a similar comparison between high return period avalanches obtained with a statistical-dynamical approach and independent validation data resulting from careful dendrogeomorphological reconstructions. To do so, an up-to-date statistical model based on the depth-averaged equations and the classical Voellmy friction law is used on a well-documented case study. First, parameter values resulting from another path are applied, and the dendrological validation sample shows that this approach fails in providing realistic prediction for the case study. This may be due to the strongly bounded behaviour of runouts in this case (the extreme of their distribution is identified as belonging to the Weibull attraction domain). Second, local calibration on the available avalanche

  4. Prediction of long-term (5 years) conversion to dementia using neuropsychological tests in a memory clinic setting.

    PubMed

    Silva, Dina; Guerreiro, Manuela; Santana, Isabel; Rodrigues, Ana; Cardoso, Sandra; Maroco, João; de Mendonça, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    The use of neuropsychological tests to detect cognitive decline in the initial phases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has faced significant limitations, namely the fact that most cohort studies of conversion to dementia had relatively short follow-up periods. The aim of the present study is to assess the predictive value for future conversion to dementia of a comprehensive neuropsychological battery applied to a cohort of non-demented patients followed-up for 5 years. Participants (n = 250) were selected from the Cognitive Complaints Cohort (CCC) having cognitive complaints, assessment with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, and a follow-up period of 5 years (unless patients have converted to dementia earlier). During the follow-up period (2.6 ± 1.8 years for converters and 6.1 ± 2.1 years for non-converters), 162 patients (64.8%) progressed to dementia (mostly AD), and 88 (35.2%) did not. A Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model constituted by Digit Span backward, Semantic Fluency, Logical Memory (immediate recall), and Forgetting Index significantly discriminated converters from non-converters (λ Wilks = 0.64; χ(2) (4) = 81.95; p < 0.001; RCanonical = 0.60). Logical Memory (immediate recall) was the strongest predictor with a standardized canonical discriminant function coefficient of 0.70. The LDA classificatory model showed good sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values (78.8%, 79.9% and 78.6%, respectively) of the neuropsychological tests to predict long-term conversion to dementia. The present results show that it is possible to predict, on the basis of the initial clinical and neuropsychological evaluation, whether non-demented patients with cognitive complaints will probably convert to dementia, or remain stable, at a reasonably long and clinically relevant term. PMID:23263232

  5. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers

    PubMed Central

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2013-01-01

    Background/Context Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers’ effectiveness and retention. Research Design In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers’ résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Conclusions/Recommendations Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching

  6. [Monitoring sheet covering long-term chemotherapy to predict individual adverse reaction patterns for patients with gynecologic chemotherapy].

    PubMed

    Doi, Chiaki; Iihara, Naomi; Kawazoe, Hitoshi; Fukuoka, Noriyasu; Houchi, Hitoshi; Kurosaki, Yuji; Morita, Shushi

    2007-06-01

    Monitoring the adverse reaction patterns specific to individual patients is important to avoid subsequent reactions. Gynecologic cancer chemotherapy is often implemented repeatedly with an altered protocol during prolonged terms. The purpose of this study was to develop and assess the efficacy of a worksheet that pharmacists can use to analyze adverse reaction patterns in individual patients with gynecologic chemotherapy. The worksheet which we developed consisted of multiple sections. One section is for necessary drug information for the proper use of antineoplastic agents. Another section is for the following items recorded by the pharmacists: a) patients' basic information such as stage of disease and protocol, b) state of implementation and break of chemotherapy and supportive therapy on calendar, and c) laboratory data and symptoms. We arranged the last item below the calendar and enabled pharmacists to easily assess individual adverse reactions coupled with the treatment course. Reviews of the developed worksheet indicated that the worksheet led to the convenient detection of individual adverse reaction patterns and effective prevention of additional adverse reactions. This monitoring sheet covering long-term chemotherapy which was designed to predict individual adverse reaction patterns will improve the individualization and safety of gynecologic chemotherapy.

  7. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    SciTech Connect

    Toma Cajthaml; Vaclav Sasek

    2005-11-01

    Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) with pure carbon dioxide was used to obtain desorption curves of PAHs from four contaminated industrial soils. These were from a former gas works, a former tar processing plant, a former wood presentation plant, and a former gas-holder site. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 1495 to 2439 mg/kg. The desorption curves were fitted with a simple two-site model to determine the rapidly released fraction (F) representing bioavailability of PAHs. The F data obtained under various SFE pressures were compared with degradation results of a composting method applied on the soils. After composting and consequent long-term maturation, the residual PAH contaminations ranged from 4 to 36% of the original values. A possible explanation of the result variations is the different bioavailability of the pollutants. The best correlations between degradation results and F fraction were obtained applying 50{sup o}C and 300 bar. The F values gave very good agreement with degradation efficiencies and the total regression coefficients (r{sup 2}) ranged from 0.81 to 0.99. The degradation results together with bioavailable fractions appeared to be consistent with organic carbon contents in the soils and with volatile fractions of organics. The results indicate that SFE could be a rapid test to predict bioremediation results of composting of PAH-contaminated soils. 23 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Predictions of future methane ebullition in subarctic lakes using long-term climate data and energy proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, B. F.; Wik, M.; Crill, P. M.

    2014-12-01

    Correlations between seasonal energy input and methane (CH4) bubbling (ebullition) in northern lakes suggest that energy proxies might provide a constraint on the magnitude of future CH4 emissions. Ebullition is a major pathway for transporting anaerobically produced CH4 from lake sediments to the atmosphere, and represents a difficult to quantify CH4 source. In post-glacial arctic lakes during the ice-free season, solar shortwave energy input can constrain CH4 productivity via control of sediment temperature. Utilizing long-term temperature trends we calculate CH4 ebullition from three subarctic lakes in northern Sweden over the period of 1916-2079. Using observed energy trends, the average lake emission is estimated at 1128 mg m-2 yr-1 for 1916-1926; we predict an approximately 2000 mg m-2 yr-1 in the 2040-2079 period. Our study lakes and our measured CH4 ebullition rates are typical for the pan-Arctic, suggesting that such increases in CH4 ebullition might be widespread.

  9. Latent profiles of non-residential father engagement six years after divorce predict long term offspring outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene

    2014-01-01

    This study examined profiles of non-residential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) six to eight years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, nine years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of non-residential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed nine years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes nine years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother’s remarriage, mother’s income, and gender, age and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems nine years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long-term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed. PMID:24484456

  10. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

    PubMed

    Illán, Javier Gutiérrez; Thomas, Chris D; Jones, Julia A; Wong, Weng-Keen; Shirley, Susan M; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-11-01

    Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to

  11. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

    PubMed

    Illán, Javier Gutiérrez; Thomas, Chris D; Jones, Julia A; Wong, Weng-Keen; Shirley, Susan M; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-11-01

    Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to

  12. 14C Cycling in Lignocellulose-Amended Soils: Predicting Long-Term C Fate from Short-Term Indicators

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, Vanessa L.; Smith, Jeffery L.; Bolton, Harvey

    2006-02-01

    The degradation of recalcitrant, abundant, naturally occurring compounds such as lignocellulose is a significant component of the global C cycle. Identifying land uses that maximize the storage of this C rather than its mineralization to CO2 will aid in recommendations to offset C emissions. Furthermore, identifying simple relationships that predict which soils are most likely to store more C will aid in C management. We compared lignocellulose degradation over 8 months in contrasting soils from each of five sites across the United States. The soils were collected from a tallgrass prairie restoration (farmland, and plots restored in 1993 and 1979), the semiarid shrub-steppe (cool, moist upper slope and warm, dry lower slope soils), long-term farmland (no-till and conventional-till), and from two forest soils (loblolly pine and Douglas fir; fertilized and non-fertilized). Soils that rapidly metabolized freshly added C exploited endogenous and newly transformed C to a lesser degree over the course of the incubation (lower slope shrub-steppe, non-fertilized Douglas fir, and tallgrass prairie farmed and 1993 restorations). We also pooled the data to find a strong relationship between sand content and lignocellulose-C remaining in the soil after 8 months (R = 0.68) and also between short-term storage of lignocellulose-C (at 7 d) and lignocellulose-C remaining after 8 months (R= 0.94). To predict C storage, models of C and soil properties must be modified to reflect microbial communities. Communities in richer soils may be more competent to use native C following fresh C additions when compared with communities in poorer soils.

  13. Predicted Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk Among Young Adults in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health

    PubMed Central

    Alonso, Alvaro; Spencer, Rachael A.; Pencina, Michael; Williams, Ken; Everson-Rose, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States. Methods. Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of “hard” and “general” CVD by gender and race/ethnicity. Results. Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Conclusions. Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD. PMID:25322295

  14. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  15. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  16. Prediction of the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy by signal averaged electrocardiography

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, T; Fukunami, M; Shimonagata, T; Kumagai, K; Kim, J; Sanada, S; Ogita, H; Hori, M; Hoki, N

    1998-01-01

    Objective—To determine whether the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy can be predicted by signal averaged electrocardiography (ECG).
Patients—31 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and without bundle branch block were included in a retrospective study and 16 in a prospective study.
Methods—A signal averaged ECG was recorded before β blocker treatment, and three variables were measured from the vector magnitude: QRS duration, root mean square voltage for the last 40 ms (RMS40), and duration of the terminal low amplitude signals (< 40 µV) (LAS40). In the retrospective study, these variables were compared among good responders (showing ⩾ 0.10 increase in ejection fraction 12 months after start of β blocker treatment) and poor responders without such improvement. The validity of the signal averaged ECG criteria for prediction of the response to β blocker treatment was examined in the prospective study.
Results—In the retrospective study, good responders (n = 16) had a shorter QRS duration (mean (SD): 122.9 (11) v 138 (14.4) ms, p < 0.005) and LAS40 (33.1 (8.9) v 42.5 (7.8) ms, p < 0.005), and a higher RMS40 (31.6 (16.3) v 19.0 (10.3) µV, p < 0.02) than poor responders (n = 15). Signal averaged ECG criteria for good response were defined as two or more of the following: QRS duration < 130 ms, RMS40 > 20 µV, LAS40 < 40 ms (sensitivity 81%, specificity 73%). In the prospective study, six of seven patients who met these criteria showed a good response to the β blocker treatment, while eight of nine who did not showed a poor response (χ2 = 6.1, p < 0.02). The signal averaged ECG criteria gave a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 89% for predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment.
Conclusions—A signal averaged ECG might be useful in predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy.

 Keywords: signal

  17. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  18. Predicting plasticity: acute context-dependent changes to vocal performance predict long-term age-dependent changes.

    PubMed

    James, Logan S; Sakata, Jon T

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the factors that predict and guide variation in behavioral change can lend insight into mechanisms of motor plasticity and individual differences in behavior. The performance of adult birdsong changes with age in a manner that is similar to rapid context-dependent changes to song. To reveal mechanisms of vocal plasticity, we analyzed the degree to which variation in the direction and magnitude of age-dependent changes to Bengalese finch song could be predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. Using a repeated-measures design, we found that variation in age-dependent changes to the timing, sequencing, and structure of vocal elements ("syllables") was significantly predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. In particular, the degree to which the duration of intersyllable gaps, syllable sequencing at branch points, and fundamental frequency of syllables within spontaneous [undirected (UD)] songs changed over time was correlated with the degree to which these features changed from UD song to female-directed (FD) song in young-adult finches (FDyoung). As such, the structure of some temporal features of UD songs converged over time onto the structure of FDyoung songs. This convergence suggested that the FDyoung song could serve as a stable target for vocal motor plasticity. Consequently, we analyzed the stability of FD song and found that the temporal structure of FD song changed significantly over time in a manner similar to UD song. Because FD song is considered a state of heightened performance, these data suggest that age-dependent changes could reflect practice-related improvements in vocal motor performance. PMID:26311186

  19. Predicting plasticity: acute context-dependent changes to vocal performance predict long-term age-dependent changes

    PubMed Central

    James, Logan S.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors that predict and guide variation in behavioral change can lend insight into mechanisms of motor plasticity and individual differences in behavior. The performance of adult birdsong changes with age in a manner that is similar to rapid context-dependent changes to song. To reveal mechanisms of vocal plasticity, we analyzed the degree to which variation in the direction and magnitude of age-dependent changes to Bengalese finch song could be predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. Using a repeated-measures design, we found that variation in age-dependent changes to the timing, sequencing, and structure of vocal elements (“syllables”) was significantly predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. In particular, the degree to which the duration of intersyllable gaps, syllable sequencing at branch points, and fundamental frequency of syllables within spontaneous [undirected (UD)] songs changed over time was correlated with the degree to which these features changed from UD song to female-directed (FD) song in young-adult finches (FDyoung). As such, the structure of some temporal features of UD songs converged over time onto the structure of FDyoung songs. This convergence suggested that the FDyoung song could serve as a stable target for vocal motor plasticity. Consequently, we analyzed the stability of FD song and found that the temporal structure of FD song changed significantly over time in a manner similar to UD song. Because FD song is considered a state of heightened performance, these data suggest that age-dependent changes could reflect practice-related improvements in vocal motor performance. PMID:26311186

  20. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Sexually Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity Versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fassler, I.R.; Amodeo, M.; Griffin, M.L.; Clay, C.M.; Ellis, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective:: Child sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for explanations for the heterogeneous outcomes in women with CSA has led to an examination of a range of CSA-related factors, from the severity of individual CSA incidents to the…

  1. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Physically Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffin, Margaret L.; Amodeo, Maryann

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child physical abuse (CPA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for the explanation for heterogeneous outcomes in women with CPA has led to an examination of a range of CPA-related factors, from the severity of CPA incidents to the childhood…

  2. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  3. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma.

    PubMed

    Lee, Cheng-Chi; Chen, Chung-Ming; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Wei, Kuo-Chen; Pai, Ping-Ching; Toh, Cheng-Hong; Chuang, Chi-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent transsphenoidal surgery. Hypogonadism was defined as total serum testosterone levels of <2.4 ng/mL. The tumor volume was calculated based on the pre- and post-operative magnetic resonance images. We prescribed testosterone to patients with defined hypogonadism or clinical symptoms of hypogonadism. Hormone replacement for longer than 1 year was considered as long-term therapy. The need for long-term post-operative testosterone replacement was significantly associated with larger pre-operative tumor volume (p = 0.0067), and lower pre-operative testosterone level (p = 0.0101). There was no significant difference between the gross total tumor resection and subtotal resection groups (p = 0.1059). The pre-operative tumor volume and testosterone level impact post-operative hypogonadism. By measuring the tumor volume and the testosterone level and by performing adequate tumor resection, surgeons will be able to predict post-operative hypogonadism and the need for long-term hormone replacement. PMID:26537232

  4. Predicting long term cooperativity and specific modulators of receptor interactions in human transferrin from dynamics within a single microstate.

    PubMed

    Abdizadeh, Haleh; Atilgan, Canan

    2016-03-21

    Transferrin (Tf) is an essential transport protein circulating iron in the blood and delivering it to tissues. It displays highly pH dependent cooperativity between the two lobes each carrying an iron, and forms a tight complex with the receptor during endocytosis and recycling back to the serum. We explore short-term dynamics within selected microstates of human Tf to identify functional information relevant to long-term dynamics. While the variance-covariance matrix delineates cooperativity between the domains of Tf at serum pH which is lost at endosomal pH, its decomposition does not bring about additional information. We employ perturbation-response scanning (PRS) to extract essential components that contribute to a pre-selected conformational change. Since large-scale motions may require key residues to mediate correlated motions between different regions of the protein, we use PRS to predict those involved in the conformational transitions between the iron bound and free hTf. Physiological and endosomal conditions are mimicked to identify critical residues for holo → apo and apo → holo transitions. Iron binding motions are mainly orchestrated by residues at the synergistic anion uptake sites, a finding also corroborated by additional molecular dynamics simulations where these sites are perturbed by docking the anion. Iron release is not readily accessible at serum pH, while at endosomal pH single residue perturbations on any residue encourage the large transition that involves a complex twisting of the two domains relative to each other, simultaneously opening both lobes. The pH dependent change in the dynamics is traced to the altered electrostatic potential distribution along the surface. The examination of local dynamics in the hTf-receptor pair reveals cooperativity in the quaternary structure and explains resistance to iron release in the complex. Meanwhile, the analysis of the hTf complex with a bacterial receptor that has evolved to sequester iron

  5. Trophic Position and Metabolic Rate Predict the Long-Term Decay Process of Radioactive Cesium in Fish: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko; Tanaka, Kazuya

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (137Cs) can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term 137Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate) and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type) influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1) trophic position could predict the day of maximum 137Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2) the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of 137Cs activity concentration in fish. PMID:22279534

  6. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-12-10

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants <2 years of age because of their carcinogenic potential. We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial to evaluate the efficacy of TCIs as a secondary AD treatment for children <2 years of age by comparing 1% pimecrolimus cream with 0.05% desonide cream. We performed urinary metabolomics to predict long-term side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration.

  7. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko; Tanaka, Kazuya

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs) can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate) and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type) influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1) trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2) the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  8. Programs For Predicting Fatigue And Creep-Fatigue Resistances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.

    1994-01-01

    TS-SRP/PACK set of computer programs for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistances of metallic materials under isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue conditions in high-temperature, long-life regime. Programs implement total-strain version of strainrange-partitioning (TS-SRP) method. User should be thoroughly familiar with TS-SRP method before attempting to use any of these programs. Five programs included along with alloy data base. Four programs written in FORTRAN 77. One written in BASIC version 3.0.

  9. Prediction of elemental creep. [steady state and cyclic data from regression analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Rummler, D. R.

    1975-01-01

    Cyclic and steady-state creep tests were performed to provide data which were used to develop predictive equations. These equations, describing creep as a function of stress, temperature, and time, were developed through the use of a least squares regression analyses computer program for both the steady-state and cyclic data sets. Comparison of the data from the two types of tests, revealed that there was no significant difference between the cyclic and steady-state creep strains for the L-605 sheet under the experimental conditions investigated (for the same total time at load). Attempts to develop a single linear equation describing the combined steady-state and cyclic creep data resulted in standard errors of estimates higher than obtained for the individual data sets. A proposed approach to predict elemental creep in metals uses the cyclic creep equation and a computer program which applies strain and time hardening theories of creep accumulation.

  10. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 2: Phase 2 subsize panel cyclic creep predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cramer, B. A.; Davis, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    A method for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures was developed. The resulting computer program may be applied to either the time-hardening or strain-hardening theories of creep accumulation. Iterative techniques were used to determine structural rotations, creep strains, and stresses as a function of time. Deflections were determined by numerical integration of structural rotations along the panel length. The analytical approach was developed for analyzing thin-gage entry vehicle metallic-thermal-protection system panels subjected to cyclic bending loads at high temperatures, but may be applied to any panel subjected to bending loads. Predicted panel creep deflections were compared with results from cyclic tests of subsize corrugation and rib-stiffened panels. Empirical equations were developed for each material based on correlation with tensile cyclic creep data and both the subsize panels and tensile specimens were fabricated from the same sheet material. For Vol. 1, see N75-21431.

  11. Value of Genetic Testing for the Prediction of Long-Term Outcome in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    van Velzen, Hannah G; Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Oldenburg, Rogier A; van Slegtenhorst, Marjon A; van der Velden, Jolanda; Schinkel, Arend F L; Michels, Michelle

    2016-09-15

    Pathogenic gene mutations are found in about 50% of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC). Previous studies have shown an association between sarcomere mutations and medium-term outcome. The association with long-term outcome has not been described. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the long-term outcomes of patients with genotype positive (G+) and genotype negative (G-) HC. The study population consisted of 626 patients with HC (512 probands and 114 relatives) who underwent phenotyping and genetic testing from 1985 to 2014. End points were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, heart failure (HF)-related mortality, and sudden cardiac death/aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD/aborted SCD). Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. A pathogenic mutation was detected in 327 patients (52%). G+ probands were younger than G- probands (46 ± 15 vs 55 ± 15 years, p <0.001), had more non sustained ventricular tachycardia (34% vs 13%; p <0.001), more often a history of syncope (14% vs 7%; p = 0.016), and more extreme hypertrophy (maximal wall thickness ≥30 mm, 7% vs 1%; p <0.001). G- probands were more symptomatic (New York Heart Association ≥II, 73% vs 53%, p <0.001) and had higher left ventricular outflow tract gradients (42 ± 39 vs 29 ± 33 mm Hg, p = 0.001). During 12 ± 9 years of follow-up, G+ status was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.15; p = 0.014), CV mortality (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.49 to 5.36; p = 0.002), HF-related mortality (HR 6.33, 95% CI 1.79 to 22.41; p = 0.004), and SCD/aborted SCD (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.71; p = 0.015). In conclusion, during long-term follow-up, patients with G+ HC are at increased risk of all-cause death, CV death, HF-related death, and SCD/aborted SCD.

  12. Red cell distribution width predicts short- and long-term outcomes of acute congestive heart failure more effectively than hemoglobin.

    PubMed

    Dai, Yuxiang; Konishi, Hakuoh; Takagi, Atsutoshi; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki

    2014-08-01

    The present study compared short- and long-term prognostic values of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) with those of hemoglobin (Hgb) among patients with acute congestive heart failure (CHF) in a cardiac care unit. The cross-sectional study examined data from 521 patients with acute CHF who were admitted to a cardiac care unit and followed up for 24 months (median). Mean Hgb levels in patients who succumbed (DIH) or remained alive (AIH) were 11.0±1.8 and 11.8±2.6 g/l (P>0.05), respectively. Median values of RDW were 16.2% and 14.4%, respectively (P<0.0001). During the 24-month follow-up, mean levels of Hgb in groups with and without endpoints were 11.4±2.5 and 12.5±2.4 g/dl (P<0.0001), respectively. Median RDW values were 14.9 and 13.8%, respectively (P<0.0001). Logistic regression analysis showed that in-hospital mortality was significantly associated with RDW (P=0.044), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class IV (P=0.0037), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P=0.042) and C-reactive protein (P=0.0044), but not with Hgb (P=0.10). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard model selected RDW [hazard ratio (HR), 2.19; P<0.0001], left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.81, P=0.0016), age (10-year increase; HR 1.19, P=0.0017) and NYHA functional classes III/IV (HR 1.52, P=0.0029) as independent predictors of long-term outcomes after adjustment, but not Hgb (HR 1.01, P=0.86). Higher RDW values in acute CHF patients at admission were associated with worse short- and long-term outcomes and RDW values were more prognostically relevant than Hgb levels. PMID:25009627

  13. Creep crack growth predictions in INCO 718 using a continuum damage model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.; Wilson, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Creep crack growth tests have been carried out in compact type specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). Theoretical creep crack growth predictions have been carried out by incorporating a unified viscoplastic constitutive model and a continuum damage model into the ARAQUS nonlinear finite element program. Material constants for both the viscoplastic model and the creep continuum damage model were determined from tests carried out on uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). A comparison of the theoretical creep crack growth rates obtained from the finite element predictions with the experimentally observed creep crack growth rates indicates that the viscoplastic/continuum damage model can be used to successfully predict creep crack growth in compact type specimens using material constants obtained from uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C).

  14. A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

    1992-01-01

    A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

  15. Biochemical Response to Androgen Deprivation Therapy Before External Beam Radiation Therapy Predicts Long-term Prostate Cancer Survival Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Zelefsky, Michael J.; Gomez, Daniel R.; Polkinghorn, William R.; Pei, Xin; Kollmeier, Marisa

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the response to neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) defined by a decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to nadir values is associated with improved survival outcomes after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: One thousand forty-five patients with localized prostate cancer were treated with definitive EBRT in conjunction with neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. A 6-month course of ADT was used (3 months during the neoadjuvant phase and 2 to 3 months concurrently with EBRT). The median EBRT prescription dose was 81 Gy using a conformal-based technique. The median follow-up time was 8.5 years. Results: The 10-year PSA relapse-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 74.3%, compared with 57.7% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P<.001). The 10-year distant metastases-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 86.1%, compared with 78.6% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P=.004). In a competing-risk analysis, prostate cancer-related deaths were also significantly reduced among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of <0.3 ng/mL compared with higher values (7.8% compared with 13.7%; P=.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the pre-EBRT PSA nadir value was a significant predictor of long-term biochemical tumor control, distant metastases-free survival, and cause-specific survival outcomes. Conclusions: Pre-radiation therapy nadir PSA values of ≤0.3 ng/mL after neoadjuvant ADT were associated with improved long-term biochemical tumor control, reduction in distant metastases, and prostate cancer-related death. Patients with higher nadir values may require alternative adjuvant therapies to improve outcomes.

  16. Long-term prediction of groundwater recharge by climate changes in the Gosan agricultural area, Jeju Island of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, E. H.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluation of long-term changes in groundwater recharge due to the climate changes is needed to secure the sustainable use of grounwater. In Jeju Island, which is composed of various formations of porous volcanic rocks, groundwater is a sole resource for water supply because of its hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, preservation of the groundwater resource is an essential issue in the island. Prior to establishing a management plan for maintaining the groundwater resources in Jeju Island, long-term estimation of influencing factors are necessary. The Gosan study area is located in the western part of the island, where extensive agricultural activity has been performed and groundwater is a main source of supply for watering crops. In this study, we estimated the recharge changes for 100 years (2000~2099) in the Gosan agricultural area based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) by using the HELP3 (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) program. The estimated component of water budget in this study are as follows (averaged in 2000~2014), precipitation: 1.28x108 m3/yr; ET: 6.49x107 m3/yr; runoff: 5.84x106 m3/yr; and recharge: 5.27x107 m3/yr. Over the 100 years of the estimated period, precipitation will have a highest increase among other meteorological parameters to be 6.16x109 m3 (RCP4.5) and 6.34 x109 m3 (RCP8.5). Increase in recharge by RCP8.5 scenario (2.75 x109 m3) will be less than that by RCP4.5 (2.77x109 m3) because ET by RCP 8.5 (ET: 3.34x109 m3; runoff: 2.27x108 m3) is estimated to be higher than ET by RCP4.5 (ET: 3.15x109 m3; runoff: 2.35x108 m3). Jeju volcanic island is known to have higher recharge proportions to the precipitation due to the distributed highly porous volcanic rocks. Therefore, variations in precipitation by climate changes would greatly affect the groundwater resource of the island. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for

  17. Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long-term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Xu, Cheng-Yuan; Rastetter, Edward B; Griffin, Kevin L

    2014-06-01

    The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well-understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (RL/RD), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both RL and RD acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana, both RL and RD responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of RL and RD to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance. PMID:24677488

  18. Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long-term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Xu, Cheng-Yuan; Rastetter, Edward B; Griffin, Kevin L

    2014-06-01

    The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well-understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (RL/RD), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both RL and RD acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana, both RL and RD responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of RL and RD to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance.

  19. Long-term behavior of ceramic materials

    SciTech Connect

    Anson, D.; Ramesh, K.S.

    1992-02-19

    This topical report has been prepared in response to the need to address the question of long term durability of high-strength structural ceramic materials. In a new project to demonstrate the use of such materials as replacements for metals in the hot gas path of industrial gas turbines, the longest projected test bed run will be 1000 hours. Creep in ceramic materials seldom exceeds one percent strain before failure, but the strain takes place almost entirely in the intergranular regions, which can be severely weakened by accumulated damage as creep occurs. In this report, we discuss the nature of creep in silicon nitride and silicon carbide ceramic materials, the method of evaluating creep, and the interpretation of data obtained under various creep test conditions. A review of creep data illustrates the importance of intergranular phases and of the history of the material. Also, in most cases, the histories applying to laboratory investigations are different from those that will apply to engineering situations in which measurable creep will be generally unacceptable. Fatigue in ceramic materials usually is assessed in static fatigue tests, which are dependent on the same types of grain boundary damage as those occurring in creep, but over shorter time periods. Corrosion of silicon-based ceramics by oxygen and water vapor results in the formation of protective SiO{sub 2} under gas turbine operating conditions.

  20. Righting Reflex Predicts Long-Term Histological and Behavioral Outcomes in a Closed Head Model of Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Grin’kina, Natalia M.; Li, Yang; Haber, Margalit; Sangobowale, Michael; Nikulina, Elena; Le’Pre, Charm; El Sehamy, Alexander M.; Dugue, Rachelle; Ho, Johnson S.

    2016-01-01

    Blunt impact produces a heterogeneous brain injury in people and in animal models of traumatic brain injury. We report that a single closed head impact to adult C57/BL6 mice produced two injury syndromes (CHI-1 and CHI-2). CHI-1 mice spontaneously reinitiated breathing after injury while CHI-2 mice had prolonged apnea and regained breathing only after cardiopulmonary resuscitation and supplementation of 100% O2. The CHI-1 group significantly regained righting reflex more rapidly than the CHI-2 group. At 7 days post-injury, CHI-1, but not CHI-2 mice, acquired but had no long-term retention of an active place avoidance task. The behavioral deficits of CHI-1 and CHI-2 mice were retained one-month after the injury. CHI-1 mice had loss of hippocampal neurons and localized white matter injury at one month after injury. CHI-2 had a larger loss of hippocampal neurons and more widespread loss of myelin and axons. High-speed videos made during the injury were followed by assessment of breathing and righting reflex. These videos show that CHI-2 mice experienced a larger vertical g-force than CHI-1 mice. Time to regain righting reflex in CHI-2 mice significantly correlated with vertical g-force. Thus, physiological responses occurring immediately after injury can be valuable surrogate markers of subsequent behavioral and histological deficits. PMID:27657499

  1. Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1997-01-01

    The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

  2. An alternative to fully coupled reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in complex geological systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Fully-coupled reactive transport simulations involving multiphase hydrodynamics and chemical reactions in heterogeneous settings are extremely challenging from a computational point of view. This often leads to oversimplification of the investigated system: coarse spatial discretization, to keep the number of elements in the order of few thousands; simplified chemistry, disregarding many potentially important reactions. A novel approach for coupling non-reactive hydrodynamic simulations with the outcome of single batch geochemical simulations was therefore introduced to assess the potential long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for underground CO2 storage in Germany [1],[2]. The advantage of the coupling is the ability to use multi-million grid non-reactive hydrodynamics simulations on one side and few batch 0D geochemical simulations on the other, so that the complexity of both systems does not need to be reduced. This contribution shows the approach which was taken to validate this simplified coupling scheme. The procedure involved batch simulations of the reference geochemical model, then performing both non-reactive and fully coupled 1D and 3D reactive transport simulations and finally applying the simplified coupling scheme based on the non-reactive and geochemical batch model. The TOUGHREACT/ECO2N [3] simulator was adopted for the validation. The degree of refinement of the spatial grid and the complexity and velocity of the mineral reactions, along with a cut-off value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 allowed to originate precipitates in the simplified approach were found out to be the governing parameters for the convergence of the two schemes. Systematic discrepancies between the approaches are not reducible, simply because there is no feedback between chemistry and hydrodynamics, and can reach 20 % - 30 % in unfavourable cases. However, even such discrepancy is completely acceptable, in our opinion, given the amount of

  3. Longitudinal Blood Pressure Control, Long-Term Mortality, and Predictive Utility of Serum Liver Enzymes and Bilirubin in Hypertensive Patients

    PubMed Central

    McCallum, Linsay; Panniyammakal, Jeemon; Hastie, Claire E.; Hewitt, Jonathan; Patel, Rajan; Jones, Gregory C.; Muir, Scott; Walters, Matthew; Sattar, Naveed; Dominiczak, Anna F.

    2015-01-01

    There is accruing evidence from general population studies that serum bilirubin and liver enzymes affect blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular risk, but it is unclear whether these have an impact on hypertensive patients in terms of long-term survival or BP control. We analyzed 12 000 treated hypertensive individuals attending a tertiary care clinic followed up for 35 years for association between baseline liver function tests and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular covariates. Generalized estimating equations were used to study the association of liver tests and follow-up BP. The total time at risk was 173 806 person years with median survival 32.3 years. Follow-up systolic BP over 5 years changed by −0.4 (alanine transaminase and bilirubin), +2.1(alkaline phosphatase), +0.9(γ-glutamyl transpeptidase) mm Hg for each standard deviation increase. Serum total bilirubin and alanine transaminase showed a significant negative association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas alkaline phosphatase and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase showed a positive association and aspartate transaminase showed a U-shapedassociation. Serum bilirubin showed an incremental improvement of continuous net reclassification improvement by 8% to 26% for 25 year and 35 year cardiovascular mortality, whereas all liver markers together improved continuous net reclassification improvement by 19% to 47% compared with reference model. In hypertensive patients, serum liver enzymes and bilirubin within 4 standard deviations of the mean show independent effects on mortality and BP control. Our findings would support further studies to elucidate the mechanisms by which liver enzymes and bilirubin may exert an effect on BP and cardiovascular risk, but there is little support for using them in risk stratification. PMID:25941342

  4. Impaired Global Right Ventricular Longitudinal Strain Predicts Long-Term Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jae-Hyeong; Park, Margaret M.; Farha, Samar; Sharp, Jacqueline; Lundgrin, Erika; Comhair, Suzy; Tang, Wai Hong; Erzurum, Serpil C.

    2015-01-01

    Background New 2-dimensional strain echocardiography enables quantification of right ventricular (RV) mechanics by assessing global longitudinal strain of RV (GLSRV) in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, the prognostic significance of impaired GLSRV is unclear in these patients. Methods Comprehensive echocardiography was performed in 51 consecutive PAH patients without atrial fibrillation (40 females, 48 ± 14 years old) with long-term follow-up. GLSRV was measured with off-line with velocity vector imaging (VVI, Siemens Medical System, Mountain View, CA, USA). Results GLSRV showed significant correlation with RV fractional area change (r = -0.606, p < 0.001), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (r = -0.579, p < 0.001), and RV Tei index (r = 0.590, p < 0.001). It showed significant correlations with pulmonary vascular resistance (r = 0.469, p = 0.001) and B-natriuretic peptide concentration (r = 0.351, p = 0.012). During a clinical followup time (45 ± 15 months), 20 patients experienced one or more adverse events (12 death, 2 lung transplantation, and 15 heart failure hospitalization). After multivariate analysis, age [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.343, p = 0.040] and GLSRV (HR = 2.122, p = 0.040) were associated with adverse clinical events. Age (HR = 3.200, p = 0.016) and GLSRV (HR = 2.090, p = 0.042) were also significant predictors of death. Impaired GLSRV (≥ -15.5%) was associated with lower event-free survival (HR = 4.906, p = 0.001) and increased mortality (HR = 8.842, p = 0.005). Conclusion GLSRV by VVI showed significant correlations with conventional echocardiographic parameters indicating RV systolic function. Lower GLSRV (≥ -15.5%) was significantly associated with presence of adverse clinical events and deaths in PAH patients. PMID:26140151

  5. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury.

    PubMed

    Patel, Samir P; Smith, Taylor D; VanRooyen, Jenna L; Powell, David; Cox, David H; Sullivan, Patrick G; Rabchevsky, Alexander G

    2016-05-15

    The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  6. Combining PM2.5 Component Data from Multiple Sources: Data Consistency and Characteristics Relevant to Epidemiological Analyses of Predicted Long-Term Exposures

    PubMed Central

    Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V.; Kaufman, Joel D.; Vedal, Sverre

    2015-01-01

    Background Regulatory monitoring data have been the exposure data resource most commonly applied to studies of the association between long-term PM2.5 components and health. However, data collected for regulatory purposes may not be compatible with epidemiological studies. Objectives We studied three important features of the PM2.5 component monitoring data to determine whether it would be appropriate to combine all available data from multiple sources for developing spatiotemporal prediction models in the National Particle Component and Toxicity (NPACT) study. Methods The NPACT monitoring data were collected in an extensive monitoring campaign targeting cohort participant residences. The regulatory monitoring data were obtained from the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE). We performed exploratory analyses to examine features that could affect our approach to combining data: comprehensiveness of spatial coverage, comparability of analysis methods, and consistency in sampling protocols. In addition, we considered the viability of developing spatiotemporal prediction models given a) all available data, b) NPACT data only, and c) NPACT data with temporal trends estimated from other pollutants. Results The number of CSN/IMPROVE monitors was limited in all study areas. The different laboratory analysis methods and sampling protocols resulted in incompatible measurements between networks. Given these features we determined that it was preferable to develop our spatiotemporal models using only the NPACT data and under simplifying assumptions. Conclusions Investigators conducting epidemiological studies of long-term PM2.5 components need to be mindful of the features of the monitoring data and incorporate this understanding into the design of their monitoring campaigns and the development of their exposure prediction models. Citation Kim SY, Sheppard L, Larson TV, Kaufman JD, Vedal S. 2015. Combining

  7. Admission Values of D-dimer and C-reactive Protein (CRP) Predict the Long-term Outcomes in Acute Aortic Dissection.

    PubMed

    Mori, Kentaro; Tamune, Hidetaka; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Objective Admission D-dimer and C-reactive protein (CRP) values have been reported to predict the short-term outcomes in acute aortic dissection (AAD). However, the association between D-dimer values and the long-term outcomes has not been investigated. Methods The primary endpoints included events determined to be all-cause death, recurrence of aortic dissection, aortic rupture, and surgical intervention for the aortic aneurysm following the first hospital discharge. We performed a receiver operating characteristic analysis and determined the optimal cut-off levels of admission D-dimer, admission CRP and peak CRP values in terms of the sensitivity and specificity for predicting the presence of events. Using the optimal cut-off values, we performed a multiple Cox analysis and investigated the hazard ratio of admission D-dimer, admission CRP and peak CRP. Patients We retrospectively identified 173 AAD patients hospitalized between January 2005 and December 2013. Results A multiple Cox regression analysis revealed that the hazard ratios were 3.4 for admission D-dimer [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.5 to 7.3, p=0.004] and 2.7 for admission CRP (95% CI 1.2 to 5.5, p=0.014). Conclusion Admission D-dimer and CRP values may predict the long-term outcomes in AAD. Moreover, admission D-dimer values may be a valuable marker to predict not only the short-term outcomes, but also the long-term outcomes in AAD. PMID:27432090

  8. A Meta-analysis to Evaluate the Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment in Long-term Care.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Shen, Wang-Qin; Liu, Peng

    2016-09-01

    Although it is among the most commonly used pressure ulcer risk assessment tools, the Braden Scale may lack strong predictive validity when used in the long-term care setting. A meta-analysis was conducted of English-language articles published in the PubMed database and Web of Science from the indices' inception through July 2015 to assess the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. Search terms included pressure ulcer, pressure sore, bedsore, decubitus, long-term care, nursing home, skilled nursing facility, hospice, and Braden. Data extracted from the publications included sample and setting characteristics and predictive value indices. The pooled sensitivities, specificities, diagnostic odds ratios (DOR), and constructed summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were calculated. Eight studies (2 prospective cohorts and 6 cross-sectional studies) with 41 489 residents met selection criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79-0.81) and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.42-0.43), respectively, yielding a combined DOR of 5.66 (95% CI: 3.77-8.48). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.7686 ± 0.0478 (95% CI: 0.6749-0.8623), and the overall diagnostic accuracy (Q*) was 0.7090 ± 0.0402 (95% CI: 0.6302-0.7878). Significant heterogeneity was noted among the included studies; Q value was 302.54 (P = 0.000), and I2 for pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and pooled DOR was 97.4%, 98.7% and 96.4%, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed no heterogeneity was noted among Braden scale cut-offs (P = 0.123) and pressure ulcer prevalence P = 0.547). The evidence showed the Braden Scale has moderate predictive validity and low predictive specificity for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. The development and testing of new risk assessment scales for this population is warranted. PMID:27668477

  9. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

  11. Methodology to predict the number of forced outages due to creep failure

    SciTech Connect

    Palermo, J.V. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    All alloy metals at a temperature above 950 degrees Fahrenheit experience creep damage. Creep failures in boiler tubes usually begin after 25 to 40 years of operation. Since creep damage is irreversible, the only remedy is to replace the tube sections. By predicting the number of failures per year, the utility can make the best economic decision concerning tube replacement. This paper describes a methodology to calculate the number of forced outages per yea due to creep failures. This methodology is particularly useful to utilities that have boilers that have at least 25 years of operation.

  12. Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large-scale drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolai-Shaw, Nadine; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-08-01

    Here we investigate factors that influence the long lead time predictability of soil moisture variability using standard statistical methods. As predictors we first consider soil moisture persistence only, using two independent global soil moisture data sets. In a second step we include three teleconnection indices indicative of the main northern, tropical, and southern atmospheric modes, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). For many regions results show significant skill in predicting soil moisture variability with lead times up to 5 months. Soil moisture persistence plays a key role at monthly to subseasonal time scales. With increasing lead times large-scale atmospheric drivers become more important, and areas influenced by teleconnection indices show higher predictability. This long lead time predictability of soil moisture may help to improve early warning systems for important natural hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods.

  13. Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Takayama, Tetsuro; Okamoto, Susumu; Hisamatsu, Tadakazu; Naganuma, Makoto; Matsuoka, Katsuyoshi; Mizuno, Shinta; Bessho, Rieko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Kanai, Takanori

    2015-01-01

    Cytoapheresis (CAP) therapy is widely used in ulcerative colitis (UC) patients with moderate to severe activity in Japan. The aim of this study is to predict the need of operation after CAP therapy of UC patients on an individual level using an artificial neural network system (ANN). Ninety UC patients with moderate to severe activity were treated with CAP. Data on the patients’ demographics, medication, clinical activity index (CAI) and efficacy of CAP were collected. Clinical data were divided into training data group and validation data group and analyzed using ANN to predict individual outcomes. The sensitivity and specificity of predictive expression by ANN were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Events of admission, operation, and use of immunomodulator, and efficacy of CAP were significantly correlated to the outcome. Requirement of operation after CAP therapy was successfully predicted by using ANN. This newly established ANN strategy would be used as powerful support of physicians in the clinical practice. PMID:26111148

  14. Role of clinical and pulmonary computed tomography angiographic parameters in the prediction of short- and long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Etesamifard, Nasrin; Shirani, Shapoor; Jenab, Yaser; Lotfi-Tokaldany, Masoumeh; Pourjafari, Marzieh; Jalali, Arash

    2016-04-01

    The utility of pulmonary computed tomography angiography (CTA) in the prediction of short- and long-term outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE) is controversial. Between November 2011 and September 2014, 190 normotensive patients (age, 61 ± 16.90 years, 53.7 % female) were diagnosed with acute PE using a 128-slice dual-source pulmonary CTA scanner. All the related clinical and cardiovascular measurements were recorded. Primary endpoints were 30-day PE-related death, 30-day composite complications (death, hemodynamic instability, thrombolysis and thrombectomy, inotrope, and mechanical ventilation use), and long-term all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 14.78 months. Overall 1-month mortality is 5.8 %, and death is PE-related in 4.7 % of total patients. Although non-significant, O2 saturation <90 % and the right ventricular short-axis to left ventricular short-axis diameters (RV/LV) ratio increase the risk of PE-related death by 3.5 and 2 times, respectively. The independent predictors of 30-day complications (15.8 %) are O2 saturation <90 % (OR: 3.924, 95 % CI 1.505-10.229), RV/LV ratio (OR: 3.018, 95 % CI 1.455-6.263), and heart rate ≥ 110 beats/min (OR: 2.607, 95 % CI 1.063-6.391). For long-term mortality (13.7 %), O2 saturation <90 % is an independent predictor (HR: 4.454, 95 % CI 2.016-8.862). The independent impact of the RV/LV ratio on the long-term mortality has a trend towards statistical significance (HR: 1.762, 95 % CI 0.968-4.218; p value = 0.064). The PE-related death is 4.7 % within 30 days after admisson and 13.7 % after a median follow-up of 14 months. Among the pulmonary CTA parameters, only the RV/LV ratio and among the clinical and paraclinical measures, O2 saturation <90 % remain independent predictors of short- and long-term mortality and complications after the diagnosis of PE. PMID:26712594

  15. Predicting long-term cardiovascular risk using the mayo clinic cardiovascular risk score in a referral population.

    PubMed

    Dhoble, Abhijeet; Lahr, Brian D; Allison, Thomas G; Bailey, Kent R; Thomas, Randal J; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Gupta, Bhanu; Kopecky, Stephen L

    2014-09-01

    Exercise testing provides valuable information but is rarely integrated to derive a risk prediction model in a referral population. In this study, we assessed the predictive value of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and exercise test parameters in 6,546 consecutive adults referred for exercise testing, who were followed for a period of 8.1 ± 3.7 years for incident myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death. A risk prediction model was developed, and cross-validation of model was performed by splitting the data set into 10 equal random subsets, with model fitting based on 9 of the 10 subsets and testing in of the remaining subset, repeated in all 10 possible ways. The best performing model was chosen based on measurements of model discrimination and stability. A risk score was constructed from the final model, with points assigned for the presence of each predictor based on the regression coefficients. Using both conventional risk factors and exercise test parameters, a total of 9 variables were identified as independent and robust predictors and were included in a risk score. The prognostic ability of this model was compared with that of the Adult Treatment Panel III model using the net reclassification and integrated discrimination index. From the cross-validation results, the c statistic of 0.77 for the final model indicated strong predictive power. In conclusion, we developed, tested, and internally validated a novel risk prediction model using exercise treadmill testing parameters. PMID:25052544

  16. Creep behaviour and creep mechanisms of normal and healing ligaments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, Gail Marilyn

    . Similarly, ligament autografts had persistently abnormal creep behaviour and creep recovery after 2 years likely due to infiltration by scar tissue. Short-term immobilization of autografts had long-term detrimental consequences perhaps due to re-injury of the graft at remobilization. Treatments that restore normal properties to these mechanistic factors in order to control creep would improve joint healing by restoring joint kinematics and maintaining normal joint loading.

  17. Long-term fluctuations of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria, Scyphomedusa) in the western Mediterranean Sea. Prediction by climatic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goy, Jacquelinn; Morand, Pierre; Etienne, Michéle

    1989-02-01

    The archives of the Station Zoologique at Villefranche-sur-Mer contain records of "years with Pelagia noctiluca" and 'years without Pelagia". These records, plus additional data, indicate that over the past 200 years (1785-1985) outburst of Pelagia have occured about every 12 years. Using a forecasting model, climatic variables, notably temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure, appear to predict "years with Pelagia".

  18. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C.

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals’ nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons ‘on the move’, as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  19. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-06-13

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play.

  20. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  1. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  2. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D.; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C.; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients’ medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055

  3. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients' medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055

  4. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Snoeck-Stroband, Jiska B.; Lapperre, Therese S.; Sterk, Peter J.; Hiemstra, Pieter S.; Thiadens, Henk A.; Boezen, H. Marike; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; Postma, Dirkje S.; Timens, Wim; Sont, Jacob K.

    2015-01-01

    Background The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD. Methods Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), 30–80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III), age 45–75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid) or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20), and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study. Results Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04). Conclusions Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847 PMID:26659582

  5. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  6. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  7. Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadvand, Payam; Rushton, Stephen; Diggle, Peter J.; Goffe, Louis; Rankin, Judith; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    Whilst exposure to air pollution is linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes, assessing levels of this exposure has remained a challenge. This study reports a modeling approach for the estimation of weekly levels of ambient black smoke (BS) at residential postcodes across Northeast England (2055 km 2) over a 12 year period (1985-1996). A two-stage modeling strategy was developed using monitoring data on BS together with a range of covariates including data on traffic, population density, industrial activity, land cover (remote sensing), and meteorology. The first stage separates the temporal trend in BS for the region as a whole from within-region spatial variation and the second stage is a linear model which predicts BS levels at all locations in the region using spatially referenced covariate data as predictors and the regional predicted temporal trend as an offset. Traffic and land cover predictors were included in the final model, which predicted 70% of the spatio-temporal variation in BS across the study region over the study period. This modeling approach appears to provide a robust way of estimating exposure to BS at an inter-urban scale.

  8. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardekopf, D. W.; Horecký, J.; Kopáček, J.; Stuchlík, E.

    2008-03-01

    Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  9. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardekopf, D. W.; Horecký, J.; Kopáček, J.; Stuchlík, E.

    2007-09-01

    Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  10. Long-term biomonitoring of breast cancer patients under adjuvant chemotherapy: the comet assay as a possible predictive factor.

    PubMed

    Uriol, E; Sierra, M; Comendador, M A; Fra, J; Martínez-Camblor, P; Lacave, A J; Sierra, L M

    2013-01-01

    Most chemotherapy treatments induce DNA damage in the exposed patients. Using the comet assay and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), we have quantified this induced DNA damage and studied its relationship with GSTM1 and GSTT1 polymorphisms, and clinical parameters. For this purpose, 29 Caucasian women, breast cancer patients under CMF or CEF adjuvant chemotherapy were included in the study. The clinical parameters considered were (i) therapies side effects, like haematological and biochemical toxicities, (ii) prognostic and predictive factors, like hormonal receptor expression, tumour differentiation degree, sickness stage, and nodal status, and (iii) the effectiveness of the chemotherapy measured as five years relapse probability. The results were also related to the confounding factor age. Comet assay results indicate that 13 patients were characterised by absence of induced DNA strand breaks, and 16 patients presented induced DNA strand breaks along the treatment. Relationships between comet variables and clinical parameters, found with principal component analysis, correlations, one-way ANOVA and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that: (1) baseline levels of DNA damage are related to GSTM1 genotype and to hormonal receptor expression; (2) GSTM1 genotype also influences comet results after chemotherapy, as it does the AST level; (3) the tail moment values of the cycle 6.1 and the sickness stage might predict cancer relapse at five years: for the Stage, OR = 13.8 (IIB versus I+IIA), 95% CI 0.80-238.97, and for 6.1 cycle TM, OR = 1.3, 95%, CI 0.97-1.79, with a potential model (10* Stage (I-IIA = 0, IIB = 1) + 6.1 cycle), that has a good predictive capacity, with an area under ROC curve of 0.872 (CI 0.62-1.00). To our knowledge, this is the first time such a predictive value is found for the comet assay. Nevertheless, before the comet assay could be used as a tool for oncologists, this relationship should be confirmed in more patients, and

  11. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

  12. Partial-prep bonded restorations in the anterior dentition: Long-term gingival health and predictability. A case report.

    PubMed

    Molina, Ivan Contreras; Molina, Gil Contreras; Stanley, Kyle; Lago, Carlo; Xavier, Clessius Ferreira; Volpato, Claudia Angela Maziero

    2016-01-01

    Bonded porcelain restorations are a predictable and durable treatment option that can restore not only the strength and function of the teeth but also the esthetic appearance. One important issue in adhesive dentistry is the preservation of sound enamel. Following biomimetic principles, employing minimally invasive applications and adhesive technologies is of paramount importance for successful restorations. While it is widely accepted that minimally invasive restorative techniques should be favored, there is still some controversy over the noninvasive approaches. The purpose of this article is to question the complete "no-prep veneer" concept due to the possible negative effects on periodontal health caused by excessive contour and overhangs of the ceramic restoration, and to propose a new method to assess the quality and longevity of veneers with a partial-prep concept. PMID:26417617

  13. Sources of variability in spotted owl population growth rate: testing predictions using long-term mark-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Seamans, Mark E; Gutiérrez, R J

    2007-05-01

    For long-lived iteroparous vertebrates that annually produce few young, life history theory predicts that reproductive output (R) and juvenile survival should influence temporal variation in population growth rate (lambda) more than adult survival does. We examined this general prediction using 15 years of mark-recapture data from a population of California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We found that survival of individuals > or =1 year old (phi) exhibited much less temporal variability (CV = 0.04), where CV is coefficient of variation, than R (CV = 0.83) and that R was strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity. Although lambda was most sensitive (ê; log-transformed sensitivity) to phi (ê = 0.77), and much less sensitive to either R (ê = 0.12) or juvenile survival (survival rate of owls from fledging to 1 year old; ê = 0.12), we estimated that R contributed as much as phi to the observed annual variability in lambda. The contribution of juvenile survival to variability in lambda was proportional to its ê. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection may have favored the evolution of longevity in spotted owls as a strategy to increase the probability of experiencing favorable years for reproduction. Our finding that annual weather patterns that most affected R (temperature and precipitation during incubation) and phi (conditions during winter related to the Southern Oscillation Index) were equally good at explaining temporal variability in lambda supports the conclusion that R and phi were equally responsible for variability in lambda. Although currently accepted conservation measures for spotted owl populations attempt to enhance survival, our results indicated that conservation measures that target R may be as successful, as long as actions do not reduce phi. PMID:17160689

  14. On the importance of coupled THM processes to predict the long-term response of a generic salt repository for high-level nuclear waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanco Martin, L.; Rutqvist, J.; Birkholzer, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Salt is a potential medium for the underground disposal of nuclear waste because it has several assets, in particular its ability to creep and heal fractures generated by excavation and its water and gas tightness in the undisturbed state. In this research, we focus on disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste (such as spent fuel) and we consider a generic salt repository with in-drift emplacement of waste packages and subsequent backfill of the drifts with run-of-mine crushed salt. As the natural salt creeps, the crushed salt backfill gets progressively compacted and an engineered barrier system is subsequently created. In order to evaluate the integrity of the natural and engineered barriers over the long-term, it is important to consider the coupled effects of the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes that take place. In particular, the results obtained so far show how the porosity reduction of the crushed salt affects the saturation and pore pressure evolution throughout the repository, both in time and space. Such compaction is induced by the stress and temperature regime within the natural salt. Also, transport properties of the host rock are modified not only by thermo-mechanically and hydraulically-induced damaged processes, but also by healing/sealing of existing fractures. In addition, the THM properties of the backfill evolve towards those of the natural salt during the compaction process. All these changes are based on dedicated laboratory experiments and on theoretical considerations [1-3]. Different scenarios are modeled and compared to evaluate the relevance of different processes from the perspective of effective nuclear waste repositories. The sensitivity of the results to some parameters, such as capillarity, is also addressed. The simulations are conducted using an updated version of the TOUGH2-FLAC3D simulator, which is based on a sequential explicit method to couple flow and geomechanics [4]. A new capability for large strains and creep

  15. Satellite-driven predictions of animal migrations in response to short and long-term environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, P. S.; Bohrer, G.; Wethington, S.; Bartlam-Brooks, H. L.; Powers, D. R.; Goetz, S. J.; Graham, C. H.

    2012-12-01

    Animal migrations have evolved in response to spatio-temporal heterogeneity in resources, habitats, predation, and competition. Their reliance on disjunct habitats makes migratory animals potentially more vulnerable to extreme climate events or phenological changes at other trophic levels. The advent of affordable satellite-based tracking technology has revolutionized the study of animal movement in the past two decades. Understanding internal and external drivers of migratory behavior, and how they interact, is critical for migration ecology to move beyond solely the measurement and description of organism-level movement and to predict how environmental change might affect migrations. To achieve this, it is necessary to not only measure animals' movement but also their reliance on prevailing external, i.e. environmental, conditions prior to, and during migration. An increasingly wide array of satellite and model-derived gridded data sets that map environmental conditions at regular temporal intervals are now readily accessible because of standardized processing and data formats, as well as a variety of online portals that provide host data archives and/or on-demand processing free-of-charge. While they are often of coarser spatial resolution, these data can overcome many limitations of in situ measurements with regard to spatial extent and temporal frequency. We demonstrate the use of global gridded environmental time-series in the study of animal migrations through case studies. First we show how inter-annual weather variation in wintering habitats affects migratory behavior of broad-tailed hummingbirds and investigate how it carries over to their reproductive success and survival in summer habitats. To do so, we use vegetation indices as proxies of resource availability, and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to map known physiological constraints on the birds. Secondly, we investigated the effects of long as well as short-term variations in

  16. Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  17. Future global and regional climate change: From near-term prediction to long-term projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.; Collins, M.; Power, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Christensen, J. H.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC AR5 assessed results from a hierarchy of different climate models on how climate might change in the future from decades to millennia. The projections are based on a series of new climate models and for new scenarios. They are very consistent with projections in AR4 and confirm widespread changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land under emission scenarios without mitigation. In the late 21st century and beyond, the warming is dominated by the total emissions of CO2, and many changes will persist for centuries even if emissions were stopped. Stabilization of global temperature at 2°C above the preindustrial value for example, requires strong emission reductions over the 21st century. In the near term and locally however, interannual and decadal climate variability remains a large and mostly irreducible component of the uncertainty in projections. Improving the quality of information on regional climate change and improving the ability of the scientific community to perform near-term climate predictions are key challenges for the future. The development of a consensus in the climate science community on (i) the major directions for future model development and (ii) the scope of future coordinated model experiments will help serve the needs of both future IPCC assessments and the wider research community.

  18. Long-term landscape trajectory - Can we make predictions about landscape form and function for post-mining landforms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, G. R.; Lowry, J. B. C.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2016-08-01

    A significant issue for the application of numerical Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) is their calibration/parameterisation and validation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, they can provide meaningful and useful results. However, before use, each LEM requires a set of data and parameter values for it to run reliably and most importantly produce results with some measure of precision and accuracy. This calibration/validation process is largely carried out using parameter values determined from present day, or recent surface conditions which are themselves product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here we examine the reliability of an LEM to predict catchment form over geological time (500,000 years) for a potential rehabilitated mine landform using defensible parameters derived from field plots. The findings demonstrate that there is no equifinality in landscape form with different parameter sets producing geomorphically and hydrologically unique landscapes throughout their entire evolution. This shows that parameterisation does matter over geological time scales. However, for shorter time scales (< 10,000 years) the geomorphic differences in hillslope form are minimal as described by the hypsometric curve, area-slope and cumulative area distribution, yet there are large differences in sediment output. Therefore, obtaining reliable and defensible parameters for input to LEMs is essential.

  19. Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume. PMID:22203886

  20. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  1. Usefulness of Combining Galectin-3 and BIVA Assessments in Predicting Short- and Long-Term Events in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    De Berardinis, Benedetta; Magrini, Laura; Zampini, Giorgio; Zancla, Benedetta; Salerno, Gerardo; Cardelli, Patrizia; Di Stasio, Enrico; Gaggin, Hanna K.; Belcher, Arianna; Parry, Blair A.; Nagurney, John T.; Januzzi, James L.; Di Somma, Salvatore

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. Acute heart failure (AHF) is associated with a higher risk for the occurrence of rehospitalization and death. Galectin-3 (GAL3) is elevated in AHF patients and is an indicator in predicting short-term mortality. The total body water using bioimpedance vector analysis (BIVA) is able to identify mortality within AHF patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the short- and long-term predictive value of GAL3, BIVA, and the combination of both in AHF patients in Emergency Department (ED). Methods. 205 ED patients with AHF were evaluated by testing for B type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and GAL3. The primary endpoint was death and rehospitalization at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days and 12 and 18 months. AHF patients were evaluated at the moment of ED arrival with clinical judgment and GAL3 and BIVA measurement. Results. GAL3 level was significantly higher in patients >71 years old, and with eGFR < 30 cc/min. The area under the curve (AUC) of GAL3 + BIVA, GAL3 and BIVA for death and rehospitalization both when considered in total and when considered serially for the follow-up period showed that the combination has a better prognostic value. Kaplan-Meier survival curve for GAL3 values >17.8 ng/mL shows significant survival difference. At multivariate Cox regression analysis GAL3 is an independent variable to predict death + rehospitalization with a value of 32.24 ng/mL at 30 days (P < 0.005). Conclusion. In patients admitted for AHF an early assessment of GAL3 and BIVA seems to be useful in identifying patients at high risk for death and rehospitalization at short and long term. Combining the biomarker and the device could be of great utility since they monitor the severity of two pathophysiological different mechanisms: heart fibrosis and fluid overload. PMID:25101304

  2. Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

  3. Short- and long-term recidivism prediction of the PCL-R and the effects of age: a 24-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Olver, Mark E; Wong, Stephen C P

    2015-01-01

    We prospectively examined the short- and long-term prediction of several recidivism outcomes as a function of psychopathy and age in a sample of 273 Canadian federal inmates with an average 24 years post-release follow-up. Offenders were rated using the original 22-item Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL: Hare, 1980) based on extensive archival file information, and the ratings were used to compute the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (Hare, 2003) and the 4 facet scores. PCL-R total scores and the Lifestyle and Antisocial facets, but not the Interpersonal and Affective facets, showed mostly small and some moderate predictive efficacy for general and nonviolent recidivism over 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year fixed follow-ups, and predicted violence recidivism at shorter follow-ups. Age at release was negatively correlated with all recidivism outcomes and follow-up periods for both high and low PCL-R rated offenders, and uniquely predicted all recidivism outcomes after controlling for the PCL-R using Cox regression survival analysis. Increased age was consistently linked to recidivism reduction even for psychopathic offenders. The results showed that both PCL-R scores and age contributed to the prediction of recidivism; however, the PCL-R facets made differential contributions that varied with the type of offense (violent vs. nonviolent) and follow-up time (shorter vs. longer). The results have implications for both risk assessment using the PCL-R and potentially for risk reduction interventions.

  4. A modeling and experimental study for long-term prediction of localized corrosion in carbon steel overpacks for high-level radioactive waste

    SciTech Connect

    Hoch, A.; Porter, F.; Sharland, S.; Honda, A.; Ishikawa, H.; Taniguchi, N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper describes a joint modeling and experimental study for investigation of pit growth in carbon steel High-Level Radioactive Waste overpacks under consideration in Japan. A mathematical model of the growth of corrosion pits in metals has been developed. This model is implemented in the computer program CAMLE, and includes representation of the chemical, electrochemical and migration processes that control pit-growth rates. Experiments to provide key input data for the model are described, in addition to experiments to measure short-term pit growth. Predictions form the model are compared with these data. Overall, the comparisons are encouraging and the model shows good potential as a tool for assessment of the long-term corrosion behavior of overpacks under repository conditions. Future developments of the model to improve agreement are discussed.

  5. Synonymous Genetic Variation in Natural Isolates of Escherichia coli Does Not Predict Where Synonymous Substitutions Occur in a Long-Term Experiment.

    PubMed

    Maddamsetti, Rohan; Hatcher, Philip J; Cruveiller, Stéphane; Médigue, Claudine; Barrick, Jeffrey E; Lenski, Richard E

    2015-11-01

    Synonymous genetic differences vary by more than 20-fold among genes in natural isolates of Escherichia coli. One hypothesis to explain this heterogeneity is that genes with high levels of synonymous variation mutate at higher rates than genes with low synonymous variation. If so, then one would expect to observe similar mutational patterns in evolution experiments. In fact, however, the pattern of synonymous substitutions in a long-term evolution experiment with E. coli does not support this hypothesis. In particular, the extent of synonymous variation across genes in that experiment does not reflect the variation observed in natural isolates of E. coli. Instead, gene length alone predicts with high accuracy the prevalence of synonymous changes in the experimental populations. We hypothesize that patterns of synonymous variation in natural E. coli populations are instead caused by differences across genomic regions in their effective population size that, in turn, reflect different histories of recombination, horizontal gene transfer, selection, and population structure.

  6. Predicting Patterns of Long-Term CD4 Reconstitution in HIV-Infected Children Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cohort-Based Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Musiime, Victor; Prendergast, Andrew; Nathoo, Kusum; Kekitiinwa, Addy; Nahirya Ntege, Patricia; Gibb, Diana M.; Thiebaut, Rodolphe; Walker, A. Sarah; Klein, Nigel; Callard, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Background Long-term immune reconstitution on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has important implications for HIV-infected children, who increasingly survive into adulthood. Children's response to ART differs from adults', and better descriptive and predictive models of reconstitution are needed to guide policy and direct research. We present statistical models characterising, qualitatively and quantitatively, patterns of long-term CD4 recovery. Methods and Findings CD4 counts every 12 wk over a median (interquartile range) of 4.0 (3.7, 4.4) y in 1,206 HIV-infected children, aged 0.4–17.6 y, starting ART in the Antiretroviral Research for Watoto trial (ISRCTN 24791884) were analysed in an exploratory analysis supplementary to the trial's pre-specified outcomes. Most (n = 914; 76%) children's CD4 counts rose quickly on ART to a constant age-corrected level. Using nonlinear mixed-effects models, higher long-term CD4 counts were predicted for children starting ART younger, and with higher CD4 counts (p<0.001). These results suggest that current World Health Organization–recommended CD4 thresholds for starting ART in children ≥5 y will result in lower CD4 counts in older children when they become adults, such that vertically infected children who remain ART-naïve beyond 10 y of age are unlikely ever to normalise CD4 count, regardless of CD4 count at ART initiation. CD4 profiles with four qualitatively distinct reconstitution patterns were seen in the remaining 292 (24%) children. Study limitations included incomplete viral load data, and that the uncertainty in allocating children to distinct reconstitution groups was not modelled. Conclusions Although younger ART-naïve children are at high risk of disease progression, they have good potential for achieving high CD4 counts on ART in later life provided ART is initiated following current World Health Organization (WHO), Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS, or US Centers for Disease Control and

  7. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613

  8. Bayesian age-period-cohort models with versatile interactions and long-term predictions: mortality and population in Finland 1878-2050.

    PubMed

    Havulinna, Aki S

    2014-02-28

    Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used for studying time trends of disease incidence or mortality. Model identifiability has become less of a problem with Bayesian APC models. These models are usually based on random walk (RW1, RW2) smoothing priors. For long and complex time series and for long predicted periods, these models as such may not be adequate. We present two extensions for the APC models. First, we introduce flexible interactions between the age, period and cohort effects based on a two-dimensional conditional autoregressive smoothing prior on the age/period plane. Our second extension uses autoregressive integrated (ARI) models to provide reasonable long-term predictions. To illustrate the utility of our model framework, we provide stochastic predictions for the Finnish male and female population, in 2010-2050. For that, we first study and forecast all-cause male and female mortality in Finland, 1878-2050, showing that using an interaction term is needed for fitting and interpreting the observed data. We then provide population predictions using a cohort component model, which also requires predictions for fertility and migration. As our main conclusion, ARI models have better properties for predictions than the simple RW models do, but mixing these prediction models with RW1 or RW2 smoothing priors for observed periods leads to a model that is not fully consistent. Further research with our model framework will concentrate on using a more consistent model for smoothing and prediction, such as autoregressive integrated moving average models with state-space methods or Gaussian process priors. PMID:24105769

  9. Ductility normalized-strainrange partitioning life relations for creep-fatigue life predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Saltsman, J. F.; Hirschberg, M. H.

    1977-01-01

    Procedures based on Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) are presented for estimating the effects of environment and other influences on the high temperature, low cycle, creep fatigue resistance of alloys. It is proposed that the plastic and creep, ductilities determined from conventional tensile and creep rupture tests conducted in the environment of interest be used in a set of ductility normalized equations for making a first order approximation of the four SRP inelastic strainrange life relations. Different levels of sophistication in the application of the procedures are presented by means of illustrative examples with several high temperature alloys. Predictions of cyclic lives generally agree with observed lives within factors of three.

  10. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    PubMed

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. PMID:26551276

  11. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO{sub 2} Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    SciTech Connect

    Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO{sub 2} microelectrodes were used to obtain PO{sub 2} measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO{sub 2}, mean PO{sub 2}, and % <5 mm Hg or <10 mm Hg. Biochemical failure (BF) was defined using both the former American Society of Therapeutic Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) (three consecutive raises) and the current Phoenix (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) definitions. A Cox proportional hazards regression model evaluated the influence of hypoxia using the P/M mean PO{sub 2} ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 emerged as the only significant predictor of ASTRO BF (p = 0.043). Hormonal therapy (p = 0.015) and P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 (p = 0.046) emerged as the only independent predictors of the Phoenix BF. Kaplan-Meier freedom from BF for P/M ratio <0.10 vs. {>=}0.10 at 8 years for ASTRO BF was 46% vs. 78% (p = 0.03) and for the Phoenix BF was 66% vs. 83% (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Hypoxia in prostate cancer (low mean P/M PO{sub 2} ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  12. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    PubMed

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site.

  13. Creep life prediction based on stochastic model of microstructurally short crack growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kitamura, Takayuki; Ohtani, Ryuichi

    1988-01-01

    A nondimensional model of microstructurally short crack growth in creep is developed based on a detailed observation of the creep fracture process of 304 stainless steel. In order to deal with the scatter of small crack growth rate data caused by microstructural inhomogeneity, a random variable technique is used in the model. A cumulative probability of the crack length at an arbitary time, G(bar a, bar t), and that of the time when a crack reaches an arbitary length, F(bar t, bar a), are obtained numerically by means of a Monte Carlo method. G(bar a, bar t), and F(bar t, bar a) are the probabilities for a single crack. However, multiple cracks generally initiate on the surface of a smooth specimen from the early stage of creep life to the final stage. TAking into account the multiple crack initiations, the actual crack length distribution observed on the surface of a specimen is predicted by the combination of probabilities for a single crack. The prediction shows a fairly good agreement with the experimental result for creep of 304 stainless steel at 923 K. The probability of creep life is obtained from an assumption that creep fracture takes place when the longest crack reaches a critical length. The observed and predicted scatter of the life is fairly small for the specimens tested.

  14. Creep life prediction based on stochastic model of microstructurally short crack growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kitamura, Takayuki; Ohtani, Ryuichi

    1989-01-01

    A nondimensional model of microstructurally short crack growth in creep is developed based on a detailed observation of the creep fracture process of 304 stainless steel. In order to deal with the scatter of small crack growth rate data caused by microstructural inhomogeneity, a random variable technique is used in the model. A cumulative probability of the crack length at an arbitrary time, G(bar a, bar t), and that of the time when a crack reaches an arbitrary length, F(bar t, bar a), are obtained numerically by means of a Monte Carlo method. G(bar a, bar t), and F(bar t, bar a) are the probabilities for a single crack. However, multiple cracks generally initiate on the surface of a smooth specimen from the early stage of creep life to the final stage. Taking into account the multiple crack initiations, the actual crack length distribution observed on the surface of a specimen is predicted by the combination of probabilities for a single crack. The prediction shows a fairly good agreement with the experimental result for creep of 304 stainless steel at 923 K. The probability of creep life is obtained from an assumption that creep fracture takes place when the longest crack reaches a critical length. The observed and predicted scatter of the life is fairly small for the specimens tested.

  15. Spatial variability of the vertical migration of fallout 137Cs in the soil of a pasture, and consequences for long-term predictions.

    PubMed

    Bunzl, K; Schimmack, W; Zelles, L; Albers, B P

    2000-09-01

    Various transport models are presently used to predict the long-term migration behaviour of fallout radiocesium on the soil. To examine to what extent the uncertainty of these predictions is influenced by the spatial variability of the migration rates, we determined the depth profiles of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs at 100 plots in a 100 m x 100 m pasture. These data were used to obtain the frequency distributions of the characteristic transport parameters of three widely used transport models (e.g. dispersion-convection model, residence time model, and back-flow model). The results show that these transport parameters are generally log-normally distributed with a coefficient of variation of about 80%. Finally, each transport model was employed to predict the resulting frequency distribution of the 137Cs inventory in the main root layer (0-7 cm) of the pasture, 20, 50, and 100 years after the deposition. If only the spatial variability of the transport parameters is taken into account, this analysis revealed that the dispersion-convection model and the back-flow model always predicted rather similar, but significantly higher median inventories than those obtained with the residence time model. If, in addition, the spatial variability of the amount of 137Cs deposited is also taken into account, the frequency distributions of the 137Cs inventories in the root layer become so wide that differences in the median inventories predicted by the three models become statistically significant only after 100 years. Several statistically significant correlations between the transport parameters of the three models were also detected.

  16. Thermal Aging Study of a Dow Corning SE 1700 Porous Structure Made by Direct Ink Writing: 1-Year Results and Long-Term Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Small, Ward; Pearson, Mark A.; Maiti, Amitesh; Metz, Thomas R.; Duoss, Eric B.; Wilson, Thomas S.

    2015-11-13

    Dow Corning SE 1700 (reinforced polydimethylsiloxane) porous structures were made by direct ink writing (DIW). The specimens (~50% porosity) were subjected to various compressive strains (15, 30, 45%) and temperatures (room temperature, 35, 50, 70°C) in a nitrogen atmosphere (active purge) for 1 year. Compression set and load retention of the aged specimens were measured periodically during the study. Compression set increased with strain and temperature. After 1 year, specimens aged at room temperature, 35, and 50°C showed ~10% compression set (relative to the applied compressive deflection), while those aged at 70°C showed 20-40%. Due to the increasing compression set, load retention decreased with temperature, ranging from ~90% at room temperature to ~60-80% at 70°C. Long-term compression set and load retention at room temperature were predicted by applying time-temperature superposition (TTS). The predictions show compression set relative to the compressive deflection will be ~10-15% with ~70-90% load retention after 50 years at 15-45% strain, suggesting the material will continue to be mechanically functional. Comparison of the results to previously acquired data for cellular (M97*, M9760, M9763) and RTV (S5370) silicone foams suggests that the SE 1700 DIW porous specimens are on par with, or outperform, the legacy foams.

  17. Prostate-specific antigen nadir after high-dose-rate brachytherapy predicts long-term survival outcomes in high-risk prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Satoh, Takefumi; Ishiyama, Hiromichi; Tabata, Ken-ichi; Komori, Shouko; Sekiguchi, Akane; Ikeda, Masaomi; Kurosaka, Shinji; Fujita, Tetsuo; Kitano, Masashi; Hayakawa, Kazushige; Iwamura, Masatsugu

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen nadir (nPSA) after high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy in clinically non-metastatic high-risk prostate cancer patients. Material and methods Data from 216 patients with high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer who underwent HDR brachytherapy and external beam radiation therapy with long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) between 2003 and 2008 were analyzed. The median prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at diagnosis was 24 ng/ml (range: 3-338 ng/ml). The clinical stage was T1c-2a in 55 cases (26%), T2b-2c in 48 (22%), T3a in 75 (35%), and T3b-4 in 38 (17%). The mean dose to 90% of the planning target volume was 6.3 Gy/fraction of HDR brachytherapy. After 5 fractions, external beam radiation therapy with 10 fractions of 3 Gy was administered. All patients initially underwent neoadjuvant ADT for at least 6 months, and adjuvant ADT was continued for 36 months. The median follow-up was 7 years from the start of radiotherapy. Results The 7-year PSA relapse-free rate among patients with a post-radiotherapy nPSA level of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was 94%, compared with 23% for patients with higher nPSA values (HR = 28.57; 95% CI: 12.04-66.66; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the nPSA value after radiotherapy was a significant independent predictor of biochemical failure, whereas pretreatment predictive values for worse biochemical control including higher level of initial PSA, Gleason score ≥ 8, positive biopsy core rate ≥ 67%, and T3b-T4, failed to reach independent predictor status. The 7-year cancer-specific survival rate among patients with a post-radiotherapy nPSA level of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was 99%, compared with 82% for patients with higher nPSA values (HR = 32.25; 95% CI: 3.401-333.3; p = 0.002). Conclusions A post-radiotherapy nPSA value of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was associated with better long-term biochemical tumor control even if patients had pretreatment predictive values for worse

  18. The development of methods for the prediction of primary creep behavior in metals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zerwekh, R. P.

    1978-01-01

    The applicability of a thermodynamic constitutive theory of deformation to the prediction of primary creep and creep strain relaxation behavior in metals is examined. Constitutive equations derived from the theory are subjected to a parametric analysis in order to determine the influence of several parameters on the curve forms generated by the equations. A computer program is developed which enables the solution of a generalized constitutive equation using experimental data as input. Several metals were tested to form a data base of primary creep and relaxation behavior. The extent to which these materials conformed to the constitutive equation showed wide variability, with the alloy Ti-6Al-4V exhibiting the most consistent results. Accordingly, most of the analysis is concentrated upon data from that alloy, although creep and relaxation data from all the materials tested are presented. Experimental methods are outlined as well as some variations in methods of analysis. Various theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed.

  19. Creep-Fatigue Relationsihps in Electroactive Polymer Systems and Predicted Effects in an Actuator Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vinogradov, Aleksandra M.; Ihlefeld, Curtis M.; Henslee, Issac

    2009-01-01

    The paper concerns the time-dependent behavior of electroactive polymers (EAP) and their use in advanced intelligent structures for space exploration. Innovative actuator design for low weight and low power valves required in small plants planned for use on the moon for chemical analysis is discussed. It is shown that in-depth understanding of cyclic loading effects observed through accelerated creep rates due to creep-fatigue interaction in polymers is critical in terms of proper functioning of EAP based actuator devices. In the paper, an overview of experimental results concerning the creep properties and cyclic creep response of a thin film piezoelectric polymer polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) is presented. The development of a constitutive creep-fatigue interaction model to predict the durability and service life of electroactive polymers is discussed. A novel method is proposed to predict damage accumulation and fatigue life of polymers under oyclic loading conditions in the presence of creep. The study provides a basis for ongoing research initiatives at the NASA Kennedy Space Center in the pursuit of new technologies using EAP as active elements for lunar exploration systems.

  20. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Cramer, B. A.

    1976-01-01

    A method of analysis was developed for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures. This method uses creep equations based on cyclic tensile creep tests and a computer program to predict panel deflections as a function of mission cycle. Four materials were investigated - a titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V), a cobalt alloy (L605), and two nickel alloys (Rene'41 and TDNiCr). Steady-state and cyclic creep response data were obtained by testing tensile specimens fabricated from thin gage sheet (0.025 and 0.63 cm nominal). Steady-state and cyclic creep equations were developed which describe creep as a function of time, temperature and load. Tests were also performed on subsize (6.35 x 30.5 cm) rib and corrugation stiffened panels. These tests were used to correlate creep responses between elemental specimens and panels. The panel response was analyzed by use of a specially written computer program.

  1. Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

    PubMed

    Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

    2016-06-01

    Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests. PMID:26868524

  2. Effects of Aging-Time Reference on the Long Term Behavior of the IM7/K3B Composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veazie, David R.; Gates, Thomas S.

    1998-01-01

    An analytical study was undertaken to investigate the effects of the time-based shift reference on the long term behavior of the graphite reinforced thermoplastic polyimide composite IM7/K3B at elevated temperature. Creep compliance and the effects of physical aging on the time dependent response was measured for uniaxial loading at several isothermal conditions below the glass transition temperature (T(sub g). Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated in tension and compression. The momentary sequenced creep/aging curves were collapsed through a horizontal (time) shift using the shortest, middle and longest aging time curve as the reference curve. Linear viscoelasticity was used to characterize the creep/recovery behavior and superposition techniques were used to establish the physical aging related material constants. The use of effective time expressions in a laminated plate model allowed for the prediction of long term creep compliance. The effect of using different reference curves with time/aging-time superposition was most sensitive to the physical aging shift rate at lower test temperatures. Depending on the loading mode, the reference curve used can result in a more accurate long term prediction, especially at lower test temperatures.

  3. Development and validation of a predictive technology for creep closure of underground rooms in salt

    SciTech Connect

    Munson, D.E. ); DeVries, K.L. )

    1991-07-01

    Because of the concern for public health and safety, when compared to normal engineering practice, radioactive waste repositories have quite unusual requirements governing performance assessment. In part, performance assessment requires prediction of time-dependent or creep response of the repository hundreds to thousands of years into the future. In salt, one specific need is to predict, with confidence, the time at which the repository rooms creep closed sufficiently to encapsulate the waste and seal the repository. Thus, a major task of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Program is to develop and validate this predictive technology to calculate creep of repository rooms in the bedded salt deposits of Southeastern New Mexico. 19 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Damage-based long-term modelling of a large alpine rock slope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riva, Federico; Agliardi, Federico; Amitrano, David; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2016-04-01

    damage. Starting from a geological and topographic setting consistent with the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, we simulated ice removal in terms of transient surface loading conditions. Results show that deglaciation exerted a major control on the spatial and temporal patterns of slope weakening and subsequent destabilization via progressive rock mass damage and related fluid pressure onset in the slope. The model was validated by comparison to field and borehole data and the spatial and temporal patterns of long-term slope instability were discussed. Results show the ability of our model to correctly predict in one modelling framework (1) the rockslide geometry and the staged morphological evolution related to creep regime, (2) the macroscopic spatial distribution of damage with consequences on fluid pressure distribution and (3) the long-term evolution of rock mass mechanical properties.

  5. Long-term antibody persistence after vaccination with a 2-dose Havrix (inactivated hepatitis A vaccine): 20 years of observed data, and long-term model-based predictions.

    PubMed

    Theeten, Heidi; Van Herck, Koen; Van Der Meeren, Olivier; Crasta, Priya; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel

    2015-10-13

    Antibody persistence in two cohorts of adults, who received inactivated hepatitis A (HAV) vaccine (1440El.U; Havrix; GSK Vaccines) according to a 0-6 or 0-12 month schedule in 1992-1993, has been measured annually. After 20 years, >97% of the subjects in both studies were seropositive for anti-HAV antibodies. Geometric mean concentrations in the according-to-protocol cohorts were 312 mIU/ml in 34/36 subjects vaccinated initially at 0-6 months (NCT00289757) and 317 mIU/ml in 85/86 subjects vaccinated at 0-12 months (NCT00291876). Over the whole follow-up period, seven subjects (2+5, respectively) lost circulating anti-HAV antibodies but mounted a strong response after HAV booster administration (1440El.U). Mathematical modelling, which was applied to assess true persistence at Year 20 (accounting for drop-outs and missing data), and to predict longer-term persistence confirmed previous estimates that seropositive anti-HAV levels would persist in ≥95% vaccinees at Year 30 and ≥90% at Year 40. ClinicalTrials.Gov number: NCT00289757/NCT00291876.

  6. Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Y.; Gorban, A. N.; Y Yang, T.

    2014-03-01

    This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation.

  7. Strainrange partitioning life predictions of the long time metal properties council creep-fatigue tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The method of strainrange partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the time- and cycle-fraction approach. The method of strainrange partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the time- and cycle-fraction approach.

  8. Strainrange partitioning life predictions of the long time Metal Properties Council creep-fatigue tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The method of Strainrange Partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the Time- and Cycle-Fraction approach. The method of Strainrange Partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the Time- and Cycle-Fraction approach.

  9. Influence of climate, fire severity and forest mortality on predictions of long term streamflow: Potential effect of the 2009 wildfire on Melbourne's water supply catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feikema, Paul M.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Lane, Patrick N. J.

    2013-04-01

    SummaryIn February 2009, wildfire affected nine catchments, or approximately 28% of forested catchment area that supplies water to the city of Melbourne, Australia. This has potential to significantly affect the long term water use of these Eucalyptus forests and the consequential water yield because of the ecohydrologic response of some eucalypt species. Approximately 11% of the catchment area was severely burnt by intense fire, where vegetation mortality is higher. Catchment scale models using a physically-based approach were developed for the fire-affected water supply catchments. Different inputs of climate and forest mortality after fire were used to examine the relative contributions of rainfall, fire severity, forest type and forest age on post-fire streamflow. Simulations show the effect of fire on long term streamflow is likely to depend on a number of factors, the relative influence of which changes as rainfall becomes more limiting. Under average rainfall conditions, total reduction in post-fire streamflow after 100 years estimated to be between 1.4% (˜12 GL year-1) and 2.8% (˜24 GL year-1) are an order of magnitude lower than reductions in total catchment inflow during the period of low rainfall between 1997 and 2009, in which reservoir inflow was reduced by nearly 37%. The main reasons for the lower than expected changes in water yield are that a lower proportion of the catchments were affected by severe fire, and so mortality within the fire area was relatively low, and that the average age of the forest canopy (93 years) is younger than what is generally considered old growth forest. This means that the baseline (no-fire) streamflow used for reference is lower than would be expected with older, mature forest. The greatest post-fire affect on total water yield was predicted for the O'Shannassy catchment. This is due to the average forest age, which is the oldest of any of the catchments, that it has the highest average rainfall (1680 mm year-1), and

  10. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic). Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Moreno, V.; Nissley, D.; Lin, L.J.

    1985-03-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  11. Distinguishing Low-Risk Luminal A Breast Cancer Subtypes with Ki-67 and p53 Is More Predictive of Long-Term Survival.

    PubMed

    Lee, Se Kyung; Bae, Soo Youn; Lee, Jun Ho; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Yi, Hawoo; Kil, Won Ho; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kim, Seok Won; Nam, Seok Jin

    2015-01-01

    Overexpression of p53 is the most frequent genetic alteration in breast cancer. Recently, many studies have shown that the expression of mutant p53 differs for each subtype of breast cancer and is associated with different prognoses. In this study, we aimed to determine the suitable cut-off value to predict the clinical outcome of p53 overexpression and its usefulness as a prognostic factor in each subtype of breast cancer, especially in luminal A breast cancer. Approval was granted by the Institutional Review Board of Samsung Medical Center. We analyzed a total of 7,739 patients who were surgically treated for invasive breast cancer at Samsung Medical Center between Dec 1995 and Apr 2013. Luminal A subtype was defined as ER&PR + and HER2- and was further subclassified according to Ki-67 and p53 expression as follows: luminal A (Ki-67-,p53-), luminal A (Ki-67+, p53-), luminal A (Ki-67 -, p53+) and luminal A (Ki-67+, p53+). Low-risk luminal A subtype was defined as negative for both Ki-67 and p53 (luminal A [ki-67-, p53-]), and others subtypes were considered to be high-risk luminal A breast cancer. A cut-off value of 10% for p53 was a good predictor of clinical outcome in all patients and luminal A breast cancer patients. The prognostic role of p53 overexpression for OS and DFS was only significant in luminal A subtype. The combination of p53 and Ki-67 has been shown to have the best predictive power as calculated by the area under curve (AUC), especially for long-term overall survival. In this study, we have shown that overexpression of p53 and Ki-67 could be used to discriminate low-risk luminal A subtype in breast cancer. Therefore, using the combination of p53 and Ki-67 expression in discriminating low-risk luminal A breast cancer may improve the prognostic power and provide the greatest clinical utility.

  12. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  13. Development of a simplified procedure for rocket engine thrust chamber life prediction with creep

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badlani, M. L.; Porowski, J. S.; Odonnell, W. J.; Peterson, D. B.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical method for predicting engine thrust chamber life is developed. The method accounts for high pressure differentials and time-dependent creep effects both of which are significant in limiting the useful life of the shuttle main engine thrust chamber. The hot-gas-wall ligaments connecting adjacent cooling channels ribs and separating the coolant flow from the combustion gas are subjected to a high pressure induced primary stress superimposed on an alternating cyclic thermal strain field. The pressure load combined with strain-controlled cycling produces creep ratcheting and consequent bulging and thinning of these ligaments. This mechanism of creep-enhanced ratcheting is analyzed for determining the hot-gas-wall deformation and accumulated strain. Results are confirmed by inelastic finite element analysis. Fatigue and creep rupture damage as well as plastic tensile instability are evaluated as potential failure modes. It is demonstrated for the NARloy Z cases analyzed that when pressure differentials across the ligament are high, creep rupture damage is often the primary failure mode for the cycle times considered.

  14. Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

    2008-01-01

    This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

  15. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  16. Modeling and characterization of long term material behavior in polymer composites with woven fiber architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Vikas

    The purpose of this research is to develop an analytical tool which, when coupled with accelerated material characterization, is capable of predicting long-term durability of polymers and their composites. Conducting creep test on each composite laminate with different fibers, fiber volume fractions, and weave architectures is impractical. Moreover, in case of thin laminates, accurately characterizing the out-of-plane matrix dominated viscoelastic response is not easily achievable. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to present a multi-scale modeling methodology to simulate the long-term interlaminar properties in polymer matrix woven composites and then predict the critical regions where failure is most likely to occur. A micromechanics approach towards modeling the out-of-plane viscoelastic behavior of a five-harness satin woven-fiber cross-ply composite laminate is presented, taking into consideration the weave architecture and time-dependent effects. Short-term creep tests were performed on neat resin at different test temperatures and stress levels to characterize physical aging of the resin matrix. In addition, creep and recovery experiments were conducted on un-aged resin specimens in order to characterize the pronounced stress-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic response of the PR500 resin. Two-dimensional micromechanics analysis was carried out using a test-bed finite element code, NOVA-3D, including interactions between non-linear material constitutive behavior, geometric nonlinearity, aging and environmental effects.

  17. Estimation of long-term stability of mine pillars in underground pit

    SciTech Connect

    Yamashita, S.; Sugimoto, F.; Yamauchi, M.; Furuzumi, M.

    1996-12-01

    Recently in Japan, unexpected degradation (surface subsidence) at old underground quarry sites, such as `Ohya-Ishi` (pumice tuff) pit field has often occurred. At these quarry sites, the excavation was started 20 or 30 years ago with mechanical chain cutter and the Room and Pillar method, and stopped 7 or more years ago. Therefore, a reliable method has been required for an estimation of long term mechanical properties of the rock and for an observation of a stability of rock-pillars or structures. In this study, creep tests under uniaxial compressive load were carried out on the `Ohya-Ishi`, with the aim of estimating the long term stability of the rock. From these results, a creep mechanism of the rock was discussed using the failure mechanism hypothesis proposed by Bieniawski and by others. On this basis, critical time to failure was predicted by the relationship between the logarithm of life time and stress ratio of the sustained axial creep load. Additionally, outline of the monitoring system of AE/MS activity in the field, which have set by the Ohya Aria Consolidate Public Corporation and the others to predict or to prevent the degradation of those residual pillars, is to be reported.

  18. Differential Effects on Student Demographic Groups of Using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite Score, Act Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average for Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (5)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the differential effects on racial/ethnic, family income, and gender groups of using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours…

  19. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2012-01-01

    This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

  20. Finite Element Creep Damage Analyses and Life Prediction of P91 Pipe Containing Local Wall Thinning Defect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Jilin; Zhou, Changyu

    2016-03-01

    Creep continuum damage finite element (FE) analyses were performed for P91 steel pipe containing local wall thinning (LWT) defect subjected to monotonic internal pressure, monotonic bending moment and combined internal pressure and bending moment by orthogonal experimental design method. The creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect under different load conditions were obtained. Then, the creep damage life formulas were regressed based on the creep damage life results from FE method. At the same time a skeletal point rupture stress was found and used for life prediction which was compared with creep damage lives obtained by continuum damage analyses. From the results, the failure lives of pipe containing LWT defect can be obtained accurately by using skeletal point rupture stress method. Finally, the influence of LWT defect geometry was analysed, which indicated that relative defect depth was the most significant factor for creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect.

  1. Intestinal healing after anti-TNF induction therapy predicts long-term response to one-year treatment in patients with ileocolonic Crohn’s disease naive to anti-TNF agents

    PubMed Central

    Łykowska-Szuber, Liliana; Katulska, Katarzyna; Stawczyk-Eder, Kamila; Krela-Kaźmierczak, Iwona; Klimczak, Katarzyna; Szymczak, Aleksandra; Stajgis, Marek; Linke, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Objective assessment of Crohn’s disease (CD) activity in patients treated with anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) antibodies is crucial for the prediction of its long-term results. Mucosal healing estimated endoscopically has a strong predictive value; however, only combined assessment together with transmural healing in magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) gives full information about the whole spectrum of inflammatory lesions in CD. Aim To assess the usefulness of intestinal healing phenomenon in CD, defined as improvement both in endoscopy and MRE, after anti-TNF induction therapy, in predicting long-term results of 1-year treatment. Material and methods Twenty-six patients with ileocolonic CD were enrolled into the study. In this group a parallel assessment of disease activity was estimated before and after induction doses of anti-TNF antibodies with ileocolonoscopy and MRE by using appropriate scores. Subsequently the patients were treated until 12 months and then followed-up. The associations between intestinal healing (assessed in MRE and endoscopy), and mucosal and transmural healing with long-term results of 1-year anti-TNF therapy were analysed statistically. Results The median time of follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range – IQR: 14–46). Intestinal healing was significantly associated with favourable therapeutic outcomes (p = 0.02) and had 75% (IQR: 35–97%) sensitivity and 72% (IQR: 46–90%) specificity in predicting long-term remission. Other parameters were not useful (transmural healing) or their usefulness was of borderline significance (mucosal healing). Conclusions Dynamic assessment of intestinal healing is an accurate method in predicting long-term outcomes in CD patients responding to 1-year anti-TNF therapy.

  2. Predicting the long-term (137)Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: a parameter sensitivity analysis.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro; Oda, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Yasuo

    2014-09-01

    Radioactive materials deposited on the land surface of Fukushima Prefecture from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant explosion is a crucial issue for a number of reasons, including external and internal radiation exposure and impacts on agricultural environments and aquatic biota. Predicting the future distribution of radioactive materials and their fates is therefore indispensable for evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of remediation options regarding human health and the environment. Cesium-137, the main radionuclide to be focused on, is well known to adsorb to clay-rich soils; therefore its primary transportation mechanism is in the form of soil erosion on the land surface and transport of sediment-sorbed contaminants in the water system. In this study, we applied the Soil and Cesium Transport model, which we have developed, to predict a long-term cesium distribution in the Fukushima area, based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and simple sediment discharge formulas. The model consists of calculation schemes of soil erosion, transportation and deposition, as well as cesium transport and its future distribution. Since not all the actual data on parameters is available, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted here to find the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated that a large amount of total soil loss remained in slope, and the residual sediment was transported to rivers, deposited in rivers and lakes, or transported farther downstream to the river mouths. Most of the sediment deposited in rivers and lakes consists of sand. On the other hand, most of the silt and clay portions transported to river were transported downstream to the river mouths. The rate of sediment deposition in the Abukuma River basin was three times as high as those of the other 13 river basins. This may be due to the larger catchment area and more moderate channel slope of the Abukuma River basin

  3. Predicting the long-term (137)Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: a parameter sensitivity analysis.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro; Oda, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Yasuo

    2014-09-01

    Radioactive materials deposited on the land surface of Fukushima Prefecture from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant explosion is a crucial issue for a number of reasons, including external and internal radiation exposure and impacts on agricultural environments and aquatic biota. Predicting the future distribution of radioactive materials and their fates is therefore indispensable for evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of remediation options regarding human health and the environment. Cesium-137, the main radionuclide to be focused on, is well known to adsorb to clay-rich soils; therefore its primary transportation mechanism is in the form of soil erosion on the land surface and transport of sediment-sorbed contaminants in the water system. In this study, we applied the Soil and Cesium Transport model, which we have developed, to predict a long-term cesium distribution in the Fukushima area, based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and simple sediment discharge formulas. The model consists of calculation schemes of soil erosion, transportation and deposition, as well as cesium transport and its future distribution. Since not all the actual data on parameters is available, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted here to find the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated that a large amount of total soil loss remained in slope, and the residual sediment was transported to rivers, deposited in rivers and lakes, or transported farther downstream to the river mouths. Most of the sediment deposited in rivers and lakes consists of sand. On the other hand, most of the silt and clay portions transported to river were transported downstream to the river mouths. The rate of sediment deposition in the Abukuma River basin was three times as high as those of the other 13 river basins. This may be due to the larger catchment area and more moderate channel slope of the Abukuma River basin

  4. Long-term environmental stewardship.

    SciTech Connect

    Nagy, Michael David

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this Supplemental Information Source Document is to effectively describe Long-Term Environmental Stewardship (LTES) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). More specifically, this document describes the LTES and Long-Term Stewardship (LTS) Programs, distinguishes between the LTES and LTS Programs, and summarizes the current status of the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project.

  5. Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

  6. Presynaptic long-term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ying; Calakos, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is a major cellular substrate for learning, memory, and behavioral adaptation. Although early examples of long-term synaptic plasticity described a mechanism by which postsynaptic signal transduction was potentiated, it is now apparent that there is a vast array of mechanisms for long-term synaptic plasticity that involve modifications to either or both the presynaptic terminal and postsynaptic site. In this article, we discuss current and evolving approaches to identify presynaptic mechanisms as well as discuss their limitations. We next provide examples of the diverse circuits in which presynaptic forms of long-term synaptic plasticity have been described and discuss the potential contribution this form of plasticity might add to circuit function. Finally, we examine the present evidence for the molecular pathways and cellular events underlying presynaptic long-term synaptic plasticity. PMID:24146648

  7. Prediction of Long-Term Survival in Patients with End-Stage Heart Failure Secondary to Ischemic Heart Disease: Surgical Correction and Volumetric Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Minoru; Hoshino, Joji; Kondo, Taichi; Isomura, Tadashi

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) may result in lethal conditions such as ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) and mitral regurgitation (MR). Methods: We hypothesized preoperative LV volume would be highly associated with long-term survival in such patients. We retrospectively evaluated effects of LV end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) on survival. Results: Patients were divided into two groups according to LVESVI; Group S (n = 19, <100 ml/m2), and L (n = 55, >100 ml/m2). There were 74 patients (male 61, female 13; 61 ± 10 y.o.). There was no statistical significance in preoperative parameters, including ejection fraction (EF), severity of MR, severity of tricuspid regurgitation (TR), and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP). After operation, LVESVI and severity of MR were statistically reduced in both groups. However, EF, severity of TR and RVSP were not statistically alleviated in both groups. In Group S, 5- and 10-year survival rates were 93% and 48%. In Group L, 5- and 10-year survival rates were 50% and 29%. There was a statistical difference in long-term survival between two groups. Conclusions: Preoperative LV volume would be one of the risk factors for long-term survival in patients with congestive heart failure secondary to IHD. Careful follow-up and optimal treatment should be recommended before LV dimension becomes too large. PMID:26073141

  8. Monitoring microstructural evolution of alloy 617 with non-linear acoustics for remaining useful life prediction; multiaxial creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting

    SciTech Connect

    Lissenden, Cliff; Hassan, Tasnin; Rangari, Vijaya

    2014-10-30

    The research built upon a prior investigation to develop a unified constitutive model for design-­by-­analysis of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) design of next generation nuclear plants (NGNPs). Model development requires a set of failure data from complex mechanical experiments to characterize the material behavior. Therefore uniaxial and multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting tests were conducted on the nickel-­base Alloy 617 at 850 and 950°C. The time dependence of material behavior, and the interaction of time dependent behavior (e.g., creep) with ratcheting, which is an increase in the cyclic mean strain under load-­controlled cycling, are major concerns for NGNP design. This research project aimed at characterizing the microstructure evolution mechanisms activated in Alloy 617 by mechanical loading and dwell times at elevated temperature. The acoustic harmonic generation method was researched for microstructural characterization. It is a nonlinear acoustics method with excellent potential for nondestructive evaluation, and even online continuous monitoring once high temperature sensors become available. It is unique because it has the ability to quantitatively characterize microstructural features well before macroscale defects (e.g., cracks) form. The nonlinear acoustics beta parameter was shown to correlate with microstructural evolution using a systematic approach to handle the complexity of multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting deformation. Mechanical testing was conducted to provide a full spectrum of data for: thermal aging, tensile creep, uniaxial fatigue, uniaxial creep-­fatigue, uniaxial creep-ratcheting, multiaxial creep-fatigue, and multiaxial creep-­ratcheting. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Optical Microscopy were conducted to correlate the beta parameter with individual microstructure mechanisms. We researched

  9. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-07-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  10. The effects of physical aging at elevated temperatures on the viscoelastic creep on IM7/K3B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gates, Thomas S.; Feldman, Mark

    1994-01-01

    Physical aging at elevated temperature of the advanced composite IM7/K3B was investigated through the use of creep compliance tests. Testing consisted of short term isothermal, creep/recovery with the creep segments performed at constant load. The matrix dominated transverse tensile and in-plane shear behavior were measured at temperatures ranging from 200 to 230 C. Through the use of time based shifting procedures, the aging shift factors, shift rates and momentary master curve parameters were found at each temperature. These material parameters were used as input to a predictive methodology, which was based upon effective time theory and linear viscoelasticity combined with classical lamination theory. Long term creep compliance test data was compared to predictions to verify the method. The model was then used to predict the long term creep behavior for several general laminates.

  11. Mechanisms Governing the Creep Behavior of High Temperature Alloys for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Vasudevan, Vijay; Carroll, Laura; Sham, Sam

    2015-04-06

    This research project, which includes collaborators from INL and ORNL, focuses on the study of alloy 617 and alloy 800H that are candidates for applications as intermediate heat exchangers in GEN IV nuclear reactors, with an emphasis on the effects of grain size, grain boundaries and second phases on the creep properties; the mechanisms of dislocation creep, diffusional creep and cavitation; the onset of tertiary creep; and theoretical modeling for long-term predictions of materials behavior and for high temperature alloy design.

  12. Investigation of the effect of aggregates' morphology on concrete creep properties by numerical simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Lavergne, F.; Sab, K.; Sanahuja, J.; Bornert, M.; Toulemonde, C.

    2015-05-15

    Prestress losses due to creep of concrete is a matter of interest for long-term operations of nuclear power plants containment buildings. Experimental studies by Granger (1995) have shown that concretes with similar formulations have different creep behaviors. The aim of this paper is to numerically investigate the effect of size distribution and shape of elastic inclusions on the long-term creep of concrete. Several microstructures with prescribed size distribution and spherical or polyhedral shape of inclusions are generated. By using the 3D numerical homogenization procedure for viscoelastic microstructures proposed by Šmilauer and Bažant (2010), it is shown that the size distribution and shape of inclusions have no measurable influence on the overall creep behavior. Moreover, a mean-field estimate provides close predictions. An Interfacial Transition Zone was introduced according to the model of Nadeau (2003). It is shown that this feature of concrete's microstructure can explain differences between creep behaviors.

  13. Prediction of subsidence resulting from creep closure of solutioned-mined caverns in salt domes

    SciTech Connect

    Neal, J.T.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction of subsidence rates over a range of areal configurations of solution-mined caverns in salt domes is possible, based on some fifty years of history in solution mining. Several approaches contribute to predictions: site-specific observations obtained from subsidence monitoring; numerical modeling, now becoming more practicable and credible; salt-creep data from testing; and rule-of-thumb methods, based on experience. All of these approaches contribute to understanding subsidence but none are totally reliable alone. The example of subsidence occurring at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites demonstrates several principles of cavern creep closure, the main cause of the subsidence, and shows that reliable projections of future subsidence are possible. 13 refs., 6 figs.

  14. The Potential United Kingdom Energy Gap and Creep Life Prediction Methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The United Kingdom faces a looming energy gap with around 20 pct of its generating capacity due for closure in the next 10 to 15 years as a result of plant age and new European legislation on environmental protection and safety at work. A number of solutions exist for this problem including the use of new materials so that new plants can operate at higher temperatures, new technologies related to carbon capture and gasification, development of renewable resources, and less obviously the use of accurate models for predicting creep life. This article reviews, with illustrations, some of the more applicable and successful creep prediction methodologies used by academics and industrialists and highlights how these techniques can help alleviate the looming energy gap. The role that these approaches can play in solving the energy gap is highlighted throughout.

  15. Long term complications of diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long term complications of diabetes To use the sharing ... sores and infections. If it goes on too long, your toes, foot, or leg may need to ...

  16. Abdominal Pain, Long-Term

    MedlinePlus

    MENU Return to Web version Abdominal Pain, Long-term See complete list of charts. Ongoing or recurrent abdominal pain, also called chronic pain, may be difficult to diagnose, causing frustration for ...

  17. Long-term biomass research

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-03-01

    Some of DOE's long term R and D programs for biomass are summarized in this article. These include research efforts in the fields of anaerobic digestion, energy farming, short rotation cultivation and aquatic farming. (DMC)

  18. GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Littnerova, Simona; Kala, Petr; Jarkovsky, Jiri; Kubkova, Lenka; Prymusova, Krystyna; Kubena, Petr; Tesak, Martin; Toman, Ondrej; Poloczek, Martin; Spinar, Jindrich; Dusek, Ladislav; Parenica, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    Aim To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. Methods and Results A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores—the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE—showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73–0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80–0.83). Conclusions All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model. PMID:25893501

  19. Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Santamarina, Estevo; Maisterra, Olga; Jacas, Carlos; Molina, Carlos; Quintana, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients’ quality of life (QoL). The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015). Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005). In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke. PMID:26999113

  20. Prediction of the Creep-Fatigue Lifetime of Alloy 617: An Application of Non-destructive Evaluation and Information Integration

    SciTech Connect

    Vivek Agarwal; Richard Wright; Timothy Roney

    2014-08-01

    A relatively simple method using the nominal constant average stress information and the creep rupture model is developed to predict the creep-fatigue lifetime of Alloy 617, in terms of time to rupture. The nominal constant average stress is computed using the stress relaxation curve. The predicted time to rupture can be converted to number of cycles to failure using the strain range, the strain rate during each cycle, and the hold time information. The predicted creep-fatigue lifetime is validated against the experimental measurements of the creep-fatigue lifetime collected using conventional laboratory creep-fatigue tests. High temperature creep-fatigue tests of Alloy 617 were conducted in air at 950°C with a tensile hold period of up to 1800s in a cycle at total strain ranges of 0.3% and 0.6%. It was observed that the proposed method is conservative in that the predicted lifetime is less than the experimentally determined values. The approach would be relevant to calculate the remaining useful life to a component like a steam generator that might fail by the creep-fatigue mechanism.

  1. Exploring the role of model-data-fusion approaches in constraining the long term predictability of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes with multi-model ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalhais, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Discrepancies between future projections of land carbon fluxes originate from different process representations, but also from differences in model parameterization. Between model divergence stems mostly from different modeling structures, parameterizations and initial conditions. In addition to the known differences in the mean model behavior under future climate scenarios, there are likely also differences in model responses to increased climate variability, and extreme events, which have yet to be assessed. Here we present an in situ model data fusion experiment to explore the contribution of diverse long-term observations in addressing the divergence in responses to climate variability and extreme events between different modeled projections of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes until 2100. We focus on two forest sites in France - Hesse and Le Bray. At these sites the carbon and water fluxes have been observed for more than ten years using eddy covariance. A consolidated set of flux observations and respective uncertainties is complemented with biometric information on aboveground biomass, biomass increments and soil carbon stocks. These datasets are used as constraints in the inverse parameter optimization of an ensemble of terrestrial biogeochemical models ranging from specific forest models to generic land surface schemes, namely: BASFOR, FöBAAR, JSBACH, LPJ and ORCHIDEE. The set of multiple constraints ensures that the models simulate the responses of ecosystem fluxes to environmental conditions in agreement with ecosystem pools. Despite significant improvements in modeling performance, we observe modest improvements in estimating the interannual variability in carbon fluxes and pools. The divergence in long-term trends until 2100 between models is reduced after optimization. However, an increase in the variability of net ecosystem fluxes is observed, which results from the higher interannual variability in the climate scenarios, as well as the growing

  2. Evaluating the predictability of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes integrating long term eddy-covariance and biometric observations with multi-model ensembles (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalhais, N.; van Oijen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Macbean, N. L.; Peylin, P. P.; Rammig, A.; Rolinski, S.; Thum, T.; Granier, A.; Loustau, D.; Schuermann, G. J.; Zaehle, S.; Beer, C.; Mahecha, M. D.; Richardson, A. D.; Reichstein, M.

    2013-12-01

    Discrepancies between future projections of land carbon fluxes originate from different process representations, but also from differences in model parameterization. Model parameters are typically drawn from disparate literature sources, individual site measurements, or expert judgment, allowing for large variability in the actual parameters used and thus model functional responses. In addition, differences in meteorological forcing datasets and modeling setups may contribute strongly to differences at inter-annual and longer time scales. Along with the known differences in the mean model behavior under future climate scenarios, there are likely also differences in model responses to increased climate variability, and extreme events, which have yet to be assessed. In this study we developed an in situ model data fusion experiment to explore the contribution of diverse long-term observations in addressing the divergence of modeled projections of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes until 2100, along with responses to climate variability and extreme events. We focus on two forest sites in France - Hesse and Le Bray - for which carbon and water fluxes have been observed for more than ten years using eddy covariance methodology. The consolidated set of eddy covariance observations and respective uncertainties is complemented with biometric information on aboveground biomass, biomass increments and soil carbon stocks. These datasets are simultaneously used as constraints in the inverse parameter optimization of an ensemble of terrestrial biogeochemical models ranging from specific forest models to generic land surface schemes, namely: BASFOR, FöBAAR, JSBACH, LPJ and ORCHIDEE. The experimental setup includes the harmonization of the optimization by forcing and constraining the models with the same observations, and through a common cost function. The set of multiple constraints ensures that the models simulate the responses of ecosystem fluxes to environmental conditions

  3. Predictions of long-term behavior of a large-volume pilot test for CO2 geological storage in a saline formation in the Central Valley, California

    SciTech Connect

    Doughty, Christine; Myer, Larry R.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2008-11-01

    The long-term behavior of a CO{sub 2} plume injected into a deep saline formation is investigated, focusing on mechanisms that lead to plume stabilization. Key measures are plume migration distance and the time evolution of CO{sub 2} phase-partitioning, which are examined by developing a numerical model of the subsurface at a proposed power plant with CO{sub 2} capture in the San Joaquin Valley, California, where a large-volume pilot test of CO{sub 2} injection will be conducted. The numerical model simulates a four-year CO{sub 2} injection period and the subsequent evolution of the CO{sub 2} plume until it stabilizes. Sensitivity studies are carried out to investigate the effect of poorly constrained model parameters permeability, permeability anisotropy, and residual gas saturation.

  4. Does anxiety predict the use of urgent care by people with long term conditions? A systematic review with meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Blakeley, Claire; Blakemore, Amy; Hunter, Cheryl; Guthrie, Else; Tomenson, Barbara; Dickens, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Objective The role of anxiety in the use of urgent care in people with long term conditions is not fully understood. A systematic review was conducted with meta-analysis to examine the relationship between anxiety and future use of urgent healthcare among individuals with one of four long term conditions: diabetes; coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. Methods Electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO, CINAHL, the British Nursing Library and the Cochrane Library were conducted These searches were supplemented by hand-searching bibliographies, citation tracing eligible studies and asking experts within the field about relevant studies. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they: a) used a standardised measure of anxiety, b) used prospective cohort design, c) included adult patients diagnosed with coronary heart disease (CHD), asthma, diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), d) assessed urgent healthcare use prospectively. Data regarding participants, methodology, and association between anxiety and urgent care use was extracted from studies eligible for inclusion. Odds ratios were calculated for each study and pooled using random effects models. Results 8 independent studies were identified for inclusion in the meta-analysis, with a total of 28,823 individual patients. Pooled effects indicate that anxiety is not associated with an increase in the use of urgent care (OR = 1.078, p = 0.476), regardless of the type of service, or type of medical condition. Conclusions Anxiety is not associated with increased use of urgent care. This finding is in contrast to similar studies which have investigated the role of depression as a risk factor for use of urgent care. PMID:25149033

  5. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    PubMed

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions.

  6. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    PubMed

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions. PMID:24749963

  7. Structural integrity of the corpus callosum predicts long-term transfer of fluid intelligence-related training gains in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Dominik; Fischer, Florian Udo; Fesenbeckh, Johanna; Yakushev, Igor; Lelieveld, Irene Maria; Scheurich, Armin; Schermuly, Ingrid; Zschutschke, Lisa; Fellgiebel, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Although cognitive training usually improves cognitive test performance, the capability to transfer these training gains into respective or functionally related cognitive domains varies significantly. Since most studies demonstrate rather limited transfer effects in older adults, aging might be an important factor in transfer capability differences. This study investigated the transfer capability of logical reasoning training gains to a measure of Fluid Intelligence (Gf) in relation to age, general intelligence, and brain structural integrity as measured by diffusion tensor imaging. In a group of 41 highly educated healthy elderly, 71% demonstrated successful transfer immediately after a 4-week training session (i.e. short-term transfer). In a subgroup of 22% of subjects transfer maintained over a 3-month follow-up period (i.e. long-term transfer). While short-term transfer was not related to structural integrity, long-term transfer was associated with increased structural integrity in corpus and genu of the corpus callosum. Since callosal structural integrity was also related to age (in the present and foregoing studies), previously observed associations between age and transfer might be moderated by the structural integrity. Surprisingly, age was not directly associated with transfer in this study which could be explained by the multi-dependency of the structural integrity (modulating factors beside age, e.g. genetics). In this highly educated sample, general intelligence was not related to transfer suggesting that high intelligence is not sufficient for transfer in normal aging. Further studies are needed to reveal the interaction of transfer, age, and structural integrity and delineate mechanisms of age-dependent transfer capabilities. PMID:22965837

  8. NASALife-Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program and Illustrative Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.

    2005-01-01

    NASALife is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although, the primary focus was for CMC components the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading (Miner s rule) and creep are combined to determine the total damage per mission and the number of missions the component can survive before failure are calculated. Illustration of code usage is provided through example problem of a CMC turbine stator vane made of melt-infiltrated, silicon carbide fiber-reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (MI SiC/SiC)

  9. Endochronic theory of transient creep and creep recovery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, H. C.; Chen, L.

    1979-01-01

    Short time creep and creep recovery were investigated by means of the endochronic theory of viscoplasticity. It is shown that the constitutive equations for constant-strain-rate stress-strain behavior, creep, creep recovery, and stress relaxation can all ber derived from the general constitutive equation by imposing appropriate constraints. In this unified approach, the effect of strain-hardening is naturally accounted for when describing creep and creep recovery. The theory predicts with reasonable accuracy the creep and creep recovery behaviors for Aluminum 1100-0 at 150 C. It was found that the strain-rate history at prestraining stage affects the subsequent creep. A critical stress was also established for creep recovery. The theory predicts a forward creep for creep recovery stress greater than the critical stress. For creep recovery stress less than the critical stress, the theory then predicts a normal strain recovery.

  10. First principles model of carbonate compaction creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag Kristian; Jamtveit, Bjørn

    2016-05-01

    Rocks under compressional stress conditions are subject to long-term creep deformation. From first principles we develop a simple micromechanical model of creep in rocks under compressional stress that combines microscopic fracturing and pressure solution. This model was then upscaled by a statistical mechanical approach to predict strain rate at core and reservoir scale. The model uses no fitting parameter and has few input parameters: effective stress, temperature, water saturation porosity, and material parameters. Material parameters are porosity, pore size distribution, Young's modulus, interfacial energy of wet calcite, the dissolution, and precipitation rates of calcite, and the diffusion rate of calcium carbonate, all of which are independently measurable without performing any type of deformation or creep test. Existing long-term creep experiments were used to test the model which successfully predicts the magnitude of the resulting strain rate under very different effective stress, temperature, and water saturation conditions. The model was used to predict the observed compaction of a producing chalk reservoir.

  11. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Schoendorf, J. F.

    1992-01-01

    A series of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests have been completed to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed mean stresses. The baseline alloy used in these tests was cast B1900+Hf (with and without coatings); a small number of tests of wrought INCO 718 are also included. A strong path dependence was demonstrated during the thermomechanical fatigue testing, using in-phase, out-phase, and non-proportional (elliptical and 'dogleg') strain-temperature cycles. The multiaxial tests also demonstrated cycle path to be a significant variable, using both proportional and non-proportional tension-torsion loading. Environmental screening tests were conducted in moderate pressure oxygen and purified argon; the oxygen reduced the specimen lives by two, while the argon testing produced ambiguous data. Both NiCoCrAlY overlay and diffusion aluminide coatings were evaluated under isothermal and TMF conditions; in general, the lives of the coated specimens were higher that those of uncoated specimens. Controlled mean stress TMF tests showed that small mean stress changes could change initiation lives by orders of magnitude; these results are not conservatively predicted using traditional linear damage summation rules. Microstructures were evaluated using optical, SEM and TEM methods.

  12. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components, for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 1, phase 1: Cyclic materials creep predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Cramer, B. A.

    1974-01-01

    Cyclic creep response was investigated and design methods applicable to thermal protection system structures were developed. The steady-state (constant temperature and load) and cyclic creep response characteristics of four alloys were studied. Steady-state creep data were gathered through a literature survey to establish reference data bases. These data bases were used to develop empirical equations describing creep as a function of time, temperature, and stress and as a basis of comparison for test data. Steady-state creep tests and tensile cyclic tests were conducted. The following factors were investigated: material thickness and rolling direction; material cyclic creep response under varying loads and temperatures; constant stress and temperature cycles representing flight conditions; changing stresses present in a creeping beam as a result of stress redistribution; and complex stress and temperature profiles representative of space shuttle orbiter trajectories. A computer program was written, applying creep hardening theories and empirical equations for creep, to aid in analysis of test data. Results are considered applicable to a variety of structures which are cyclicly exposed to creep producing thermal environments.

  13. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. PMID:23177019

  14. A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

    PubMed Central

    Tamirou, Farah; Lauwerys, Bernard R; Dall'Era, Maria; Mackay, Meggan; Rovin, Brad; Cervera, Ricard; Houssiau, Frédéric A

    2015-01-01

    Background Although an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a recent analysis performed on patients randomised in the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial, demonstrating that a target value of 0.8 g/day at month 12 optimised sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of good renal outcome. The objective of the current work is to validate this target in another LN study, namely the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial (MNT). Methods Long-term (at least 7 years) renal function data were available for 90 patients randomised in the MNT. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to test the performance of proteinuria measured within the 1st year as short-term predictor of long-term renal outcome. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results After 12 months of treatment, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day best predicted good renal outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 71% and 75%, respectively. The PPV was high (94%) but the NPV low (29%). Addition of the requirement of urine red blood cells ≤5/hpf as response criteria at month 12 reduced sensitivity from 71% to 41%. Conclusions In this cohort of mainly Caucasian patients suffering from a first episode of LN in most cases, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day at month 12 best predicts good outcome at 7 years and inclusion of haematuria in the set of criteria at month 12 undermines the sensitivity of early proteinuria decrease for the prediction of good outcome. The robustness of these conclusions stems from the very similar results obtained in two distinct LN cohorts. Trial registration number: NCT00204022. PMID:26629352

  15. Long-term parenteral nutrition

    PubMed Central

    Ladefoged, Karin; Jarnum, Stig

    1978-01-01

    Nineteen patients (11 women and eight men) aged 20-68 received long-term parenteral nutrition, mostly at home, for six to 63 months (mean 19 months). Indications for LTPN were extensive, active Crohn's disease in three patients, intestinocutaneous fistulas in three, and short-bowel syndrome in the remaining 13 patients. Subclavian or intra-atrial (Broviac) catheters were most commonly used, for which the average life was four and seven months respectively. Complications of long-term parenteral nutrition included pneumothorax in four out of 48 subclavian vein punctures. Catheter-induced thrombosis of central veins was shown by phlebography 17 times in nine patients, and eight episodes of total occlusion occurred. Two of these patients had pulmonary infarction. Nineteen episodes of catheter sepsis occurred in 11 patients, but only one was fatal. Complications related to intestinal disease included intra-abdominal abscesses and intestinal fistulas, and disturbances of liver function. Five patients died, though in only two was death related to long-term parenteral nutrition. One of these patients died from catheter sepsis, the other had subdural haematoma possibly caused by anticoagulant treatment. Eight of the 14 surviving patients still needed parenteral nutrition. All received a disability pension, but six had an acceptable quality of life with almost normal social activities. Despite problems such as difficulties in maintaining standardised infusion programmes, it was concluded that long-term parenteral nutrition at home is practicable and consistent with an acceptable quality of life. ImagesFIG 2 PMID:98199

  16. Steady-State Creep of Rock Salt: Improved Approaches for Lab Determination and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günther, R.-M.; Salzer, K.; Popp, T.; Lüdeling, C.

    2015-11-01

    Actual problems in geotechnical design, e.g., of underground openings for radioactive waste repositories or high-pressure gas storages, require sophisticated constitutive models and consistent parameters for rock salt that facilitate reliable prognosis of stress-dependent deformation and associated damage. Predictions have to comprise the active mining phase with open excavations as well as the long-term development of the backfilled mine or repository. While convergence-induced damage occurs mostly in the vicinity of openings, the long-term behaviour of the backfilled system is dominated by the damage-free steady-state creep. However, because in experiments the time necessary to reach truly stationary creep rates can range from few days to years, depending mainly on temperature and stress, an innovative but simple creep testing approach is suggested to obtain more reliable results: A series of multi-step tests with loading and unloading cycles allows a more reliable estimate of stationary creep rate in a reasonable time. For modelling, we use the advanced strain-hardening approach of Günther-Salzer, which comprehensively describes all relevant deformation properties of rock salt such as creep and damage-induced rock failure within the scope of an unified creep ansatz. The capability of the combination of improved creep testing procedures and accompanied modelling is demonstrated by recalculating multi-step creep tests at different loading and temperature conditions. Thus reliable extrapolations relevant to in-situ creep rates (10^{-9} to 10^{-13} s^{-1}) become possible.

  17. miR-155 Drives Metabolic Reprogramming of ER+ Breast Cancer Cells Following Long-Term Estrogen Deprivation and Predicts Clinical Response to Aromatase Inhibitors.

    PubMed

    Bacci, Marina; Giannoni, Elisa; Fearns, Antony; Ribas, Ricardo; Gao, Qiong; Taddei, Maria Letizia; Pintus, Gianfranco; Dowsett, Mitch; Isacke, Clare M; Martin, Lesley-Ann; Chiarugi, Paola; Morandi, Andrea

    2016-03-15

    Aromatase inhibitors (AI) have become the first-line endocrine treatment of choice for postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive (ER(+)) breast cancer patients, but resistance remains a major challenge. Metabolic reprogramming is a hallmark of cancer and may contribute to drug resistance. Here, we investigated the link between altered breast cancer metabolism and AI resistance using AI-resistant and sensitive breast cancer cells, patient tumor samples, and AI-sensitive human xenografts. We found that long-term estrogen deprivation (LTED), a model of AI resistance, was associated with increased glycolysis dependency. Targeting the glycolysis-priming enzyme hexokinase-2 (HK2) in combination with the AI, letrozole, synergistically reduced cell viability in AI-sensitive models. Conversely, MCF7-LTED cells, which displayed a high degree of metabolic plasticity, switched to oxidative phosphorylation when glycolysis was impaired. This effect was ER dependent as breast cancer cells with undetectable levels of ER failed to exhibit metabolic plasticity. MCF7-LTED cells were also more motile than their parental counterparts and assumed amoeboid-like invasive abilities upon glycolysis inhibition with 2-deoxyglucose (2-DG). Mechanistic investigations further revealed an important role for miR-155 in metabolic reprogramming. Suppression of miR-155 resulted in sensitization of MCF7-LTED cells to metformin treatment and impairment of 2-DG-induced motility. Notably, high baseline miR-155 expression correlated with poor response to AI therapy in a cohort of ER(+) breast cancers treated with neoadjuvant anastrozole. These findings suggest that miR-155 represents a biomarker potentially capable of identifying the subset of breast cancers most likely to adapt to and relapse on AI therapy. PMID:26795347

  18. Application of the cracked pipe element to creep crack growth prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Brochard, J.; Charras, T.

    1997-04-01

    Modifications to a computer code for ductile fracture assessment of piping systems with postulated circumferential through-wall cracks under static or dynamic loading are very briefly described. The modifications extend the capabilities of the CASTEM2000 code to the determination of fracture parameters under creep conditions. The main advantage of the approach is that thermal loads can be evaluated as secondary stresses. The code is applicable to piping systems for which crack propagation predictions differ significantly depending on whether thermal stresses are considered as primary or secondary stresses.

  19. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Fourth year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

    1986-01-01

    As gas turbine technology continues to advance, the need for advanced life prediction methods for hot section components is becoming more and more evident. The complex local strain and temperature histories at critical locations must be accurately interpreted to account for the effects of various damage mechanisms (such as fatigue, creep, and oxidation) and their possible interactions. As part of the overall NASA HOST effort, this program is designed to investigate these fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines.

  20. Long-term data archiving

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, David Steven

    2009-01-01

    Long term data archiving has much value for chemists, not only to retain access to research and product development records, but also to enable new developments and new discoveries. There are some recent regulatory requirements (e.g., FDA 21 CFR Part 11), but good science and good business both benefit regardless. A particular example of the benefits of and need for long term data archiving is the management of data from spectroscopic laboratory instruments. The sheer amount of spectroscopic data is increasing at a scary rate, and the pressures to archive come from the expense to create the data (or recreate it if it is lost) as well as its high information content. The goal of long-term data archiving is to save and organize instrument data files as well as any needed meta data (such as sample ID, LIMS information, operator, date, time, instrument conditions, sample type, excitation details, environmental parameters, etc.). This editorial explores the issues involved in long-term data archiving using the example of Raman spectral databases. There are at present several such databases, including common data format libraries and proprietary libraries. However, such databases and libraries should ultimately satisfy stringent criteria for long term data archiving, including readability for long times into the future, robustness to changes in computer hardware and operating systems, and use of public domain data formats. The latter criterion implies the data format should be platform independent and the tools to create the data format should be easily and publicly obtainable or developable. Several examples of attempts at spectral libraries exist, such as the ASTM ANDI format, and the JCAMP-DX format. On the other hand, proprietary library spectra can be exchanged and manipulated using proprietary tools. As the above examples have deficiencies according to the three long term data archiving criteria, Extensible Markup Language (XML; a product of the World Wide Web

  1. Application of strainrange partitioning to the prediction of MPC creep-fatigue data for 2 1/4 Cr-1Mo steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    Strainrange partitioning is used to predict the long time cyclic lives of the metal properties council (MPC) creep-fatigue interspersion and cyclic creep-rupture tests conducted with annealed 2 1/4 Cr-1Mo steel. Observed lives agree with predicted lives within factors of two. The strainrange partitioning life relations used for the long time predictions were established from short time creep-fatigue data generated at NASA-Lewis on the same heat of material.

  2. Utility of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography and electrocardiography for the prediction of clinical response and long-term survival following cardiac resynchronisation therapy.

    PubMed

    Ellims, Andris H; Pfluger, Heinz; Elsik, Maros; Butler, Michelle J; Hare, James L; Taylor, Andrew J

    2013-08-01

    Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) can reduce symptoms, hospitalisations, and mortality in patients with severe left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction and electro-mechanical dyssynchrony. Unfortunately, approximately 30 % of eligible patients fail to respond to CRT. This study prospectively compared electrocardiography (ECG), echocardiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging for the prediction of response to CRT. We performed ECG, echocardiography and CMR on 46 patients prior to planned CRT implantation. Patients were divided into predicted responder and non-responder groups using previously described criteria for each modality. Changes in indicators of CRT response were recorded 6 months post-implantation, and later for transplant-free survival. Less dyspnoea, lower levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, more LV reverse remodelling, and longer transplant-free survival were observed in predicted responders compared to predicted non-responders using each of the three modalities (p < 0.05 for each comparison). Additionally, for patients with QRS duration <150 ms and/or non-left bundle branch block (non-LBBB) QRS morphology, CMR predicted both clinical response and improved longer term transplant-free survival (80 % transplant-free survival in predicted responders vs. 20 % in predicted non-responders, p = 0.04). ECG and cardiac imaging techniques predict improvements in markers of response following CRT with similar accuracy. However, for CRT candidates with shorter, non-LBBB QRS complexes, a subgroup known to derive less benefit from CRT, CMR may predict those who are more likely to gain both symptomatic and survival benefits.

  3. Long-Term Stability of Residual Stress Improvement by Water Jet Peening Considering Working Processes.

    PubMed

    Hashimoto, Tadafumi; Osawa, Yusuke; Itoh, Shinsuke; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2013-06-01

    To prevent primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), water jet peening (WJP) has been used on the welds of Ni-based alloys in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Before WJP, the welds are machined and buffed in order to conduct a penetrant test (PT) to verify the weld qualities to access, and microstructure evolution takes place in the target area due to the severe plastic deformation. The compressive residual stresses induced by WJP might be unstable under elevated temperatures because of the high dislocation density in the compressive stress layer. Therefore, the stability of the compressive residual stresses caused by WJP was investigated during long-term operation by considering the microstructure evolution due to the working processes. The following conclusions were made: The compressive residual stresses were slightly relaxed in the surface layers of the thermally aged specimens. There were no differences in the magnitude of the relaxation based on temperature or time. The compressive residual stresses induced by WJP were confirmed to remain stable under elevated temperatures. The stress relaxation at the surface followed the Johnson-Mehl equation, which states that stress relaxation can occur due to the recovery of severe plastic strain, since the estimated activation energy agrees very well with the self-diffusion energy for Ni. By utilizing the additivity rule, it was indicated that stress relaxation due to recovery is completed during the startup process. It was proposed that the long-term stability of WJP under elevated temperatures must be assessed based on compressive stresses with respect to the yield stress. Thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis was performed to predict the effect of creep strain. After 100 yr of simulated continuous operation at 80% capacity, there was little change in the WJP compressive stresses under an actual operating temperature of 623 K. Therefore, the long-term stability of WJP during actual operation was

  4. Infective endocarditis: determinants of long term outcome

    PubMed Central

    Netzer, R O M; Altwegg, S C; Zollinger, E; Täuber, M; Carrel, T; Seiler, C

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate predictors of long term prognosis in infective endocarditis. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary care centre. Patients: 212 consecutive patients with infective endocarditis between 1980 and 1995 Main outcome measures: Overall and cardiac mortality; event-free survival; and the following events: recurrence, need for late valve surgery, bleeding and embolic complications, cerebral dysfunction, congestive heart failure. Results: During a mean follow up period of 89 months (range 1–244 months), 56% of patients died. In 180 hospital survivors, overall and cardiac mortality amounted to 45% and 24%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, early surgical treatment, infection by streptococci, age < 55 years, absence of congestive heart failure, and > 6 symptoms or signs of endocarditis during active infection were predictive of improved overall long term survival. Independent determinants of event-free survival were infection by streptococci and age < 55 years. Event-free survival was 17% at the end of follow up both in medically–surgically treated patients and in medically treated patients. Conclusions: Long term survival following infective endocarditis is 50% after 10 years and is predicted by early surgical treatment, age < 55 years, lack of congestive heart failure, and the initial presence of more symptoms of endocarditis. PMID:12067947

  5. Robust Raman measurement of hydrogen peroxide directly through plastic containers under the change of bottle position and its long-term prediction reproducibility.

    PubMed

    Kim, Minjung; Chung, Hoeil; Kemper, Mark S

    2008-11-01

    Hydrogen peroxide concentration in antiseptic solutions has been non-destructively measured with the use of wide area illumination (WAI) scheme by applying a laser beam directly through a plastic container. The prediction accuracy was comparable to that from the use of quartz cell instead of a plastic bottle as well as near-infrared (NIR) prediction result in the previous study. Although the position of a plastic bottle was artificially changed in three-dimensional directions up to +/-10 mm to simulate real situation of practical measurement, the prediction accuracy was not degraded within +/-5 mm positional variation. This robust prediction performance was powered by the merits of WAI scheme that could provide improved reproducibility by illuminating large sample areas as well as less sensitivity of sample placement by the design of long focal length. Moreover, the prediction accuracy was successfully maintained over a long period of time. Finally, the prediction was also reproducible under the situation of laser power variation. The overall results demonstrate that WAI Raman scheme can provide robust and non-destructive quantitative analysis for not only hydrogen peroxide in antiseptic solution, but also other active pharmaceutical ingredients in diverse containers.

  6. Long-term reinforced fixed provisional restorations.

    PubMed

    Galindo, D; Soltys, J L; Graser, G N

    1998-06-01

    Extensive prosthodontic treatment often requires fabrication of long-term provisional restorations. Numerous materials and techniques have been described for prolonged insertion of interim restorations. This article describes a procedure for fabrication of long-term reinforced heat-processed provisional restorations based on a diagnostic wax-up. Reinforced heat-processed provisional restorations reduced flexure, which minimizes progressive loss of cement and diminished the possibility of recurrent decay. Occlusal stability and vertical dimension were maintained because of greater wear resistance. Occlusion, tooth contours, and pontic design developed in the provisional restoration were duplicated in the definitive restoration. The use of a matrix from a diagnostic wax-up facilitated fabrication of the prosthesis, and made the procedure less time-consuming and more predictable.

  7. The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M S=7) by the ``criterion of activity in quiescence''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng-Jian, Guo; Bao-Yan, Qin

    2000-07-01

    Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940 1945, 1958 1961 and 1979 1986. Using the “criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

  8. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  9. Combined Usefulness of the Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Predicting the Long-Term Adverse Events in Patients Who Have Undergone Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with a Drug-Eluting Stent

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Kyoung Im; Ann, Soe Hee; Singh, Gillian Balbir; Her, Ae-Young; Shin, Eun-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the combined usefulness of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting the long-term adverse events in patients who have undergone percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with a drug-eluting stent (DES). Methods 798 patients with stable angina, unstable angina and non-ST elevated myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) who underwent elective successful PCI with DES were consecutively enrolled. The value of PLR and NLR in predicting adverse coronary artery disease (CAD) events and the correlations between these markers and adverse events (all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and nonfatal myocardial infarction) were analyzed. Results The follow-up period was 62.8 ± 28.8 months. When patients were classified into four groups according to the optimal cut-off values for the PLR and NLR on receiver operating characteristic analysis, patients with a high PLR (>128) and high NLR (>2.6) had the highest occurrence of adverse events among the groups. On Cox multivariate analysis, the NLR >2.6 [hazard ratio (HR) 2.352, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.286 to 4.339, p = 0.006] and the PLR >128 (HR 2.372, 95% CI 1.305 to 3.191, p = 0.005) were independent predictors of long-term adverse events after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. Moreover, both a PLR >128 and a NLR >2.6 were the strongest predictors of adverse events (HR 2.686, 95% CI 1.452 to 4.970, p = 0.002). Conclusion High pre-intervention PLR and NLR, especially when combined, are independent predictors of long-term adverse clinical outcomes such as all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and myocardial infarction in patients with unstable angina and NSTEMI who have undergone successful PCI with DES. PMID:26207383

  10. A clinical prediction model for long-term functional outcome after traumatic spinal cord injury based on acute clinical and imaging factors.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Jefferson R; Grossman, Robert G; Frankowski, Ralph F; Kiss, Alexander; Davis, Aileen M; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Harrop, James S; Aarabi, Bizhan; Vaccaro, Alexander; Tator, Charles H; Dvorak, Marcel; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Harkema, Susan; Guest, James D; Fehlings, Michael G

    2012-09-01

    To improve clinicians' ability to predict outcome after spinal cord injury (SCI) and to help classify patients within clinical trials, we have created a novel prediction model relating acute clinical and imaging information to functional outcome at 1 year. Data were obtained from two large prospective SCI datasets. Functional independence measure (FIM) motor score at 1 year follow-up was the primary outcome, and functional independence (score ≥ 6 for each FIM motor item) was the secondary outcome. A linear regression model was created with the primary outcome modeled relative to clinical and imaging predictors obtained within 3 days of injury. A logistic model was then created using the dichotomized secondary outcome and the same predictor variables. Model validation was performed using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Of 729 patients, 376 met the inclusion criteria. The mean FIM motor score at 1 year was 62.9 (±28.6). Better functional status was predicted by less severe initial American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale grade, and by an ASIA motor score >50 at admission. In contrast, older age and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal characteristics consistent with spinal cord edema or hemorrhage predicted worse functional outcome. The linear model predicting FIM motor score demonstrated an R-square of 0.52 in the original dataset, and 0.52 (95% CI 0.52,0.53) across the 200 bootstraps. Functional independence was achieved by 148 patients (39.4%). For the logistic model, the area under the curve was 0.93 in the original dataset, and 0.92 (95% CI 0.92,0.93) across the bootstraps, indicating excellent predictive discrimination. These models will have important clinical impact to guide decision making and to counsel patients and families.

  11. A Clinical Prediction Model for Long-Term Functional Outcome after Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury Based on Acute Clinical and Imaging Factors

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Jefferson R.; Grossman, Robert G.; Frankowski, Ralph F.; Kiss, Alexander; Davis, Aileen M.; Kulkarni, Abhaya V.; Harrop, James S.; Aarabi, Bizhan; Vaccaro, Alexander; Tator, Charles H.; Dvorak, Marcel; Shaffrey, Christopher I.; Harkema, Susan; Guest, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract To improve clinicians' ability to predict outcome after spinal cord injury (SCI) and to help classify patients within clinical trials, we have created a novel prediction model relating acute clinical and imaging information to functional outcome at 1 year. Data were obtained from two large prospective SCI datasets. Functional independence measure (FIM) motor score at 1 year follow-up was the primary outcome, and functional independence (score ≥6 for each FIM motor item) was the secondary outcome. A linear regression model was created with the primary outcome modeled relative to clinical and imaging predictors obtained within 3 days of injury. A logistic model was then created using the dichotomized secondary outcome and the same predictor variables. Model validation was performed using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Of 729 patients, 376 met the inclusion criteria. The mean FIM motor score at 1 year was 62.9 (±28.6). Better functional status was predicted by less severe initial American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale grade, and by an ASIA motor score >50 at admission. In contrast, older age and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal characteristics consistent with spinal cord edema or hemorrhage predicted worse functional outcome. The linear model predicting FIM motor score demonstrated an R-square of 0.52 in the original dataset, and 0.52 (95% CI 0.52,0.53) across the 200 bootstraps. Functional independence was achieved by 148 patients (39.4%). For the logistic model, the area under the curve was 0.93 in the original dataset, and 0.92 (95% CI 0.92,0.93) across the bootstraps, indicating excellent predictive discrimination. These models will have important clinical impact to guide decision making and to counsel patients and families. PMID:22709268

  12. Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to Predict Long Term Outcomes in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L.; Brewer, Neil

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS).…

  13. A practical method based on stress evaluation ({sigma}{sub d} criterion) to predict initiation of crack under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Moulin, D.; Drubay, B.; Acker, D.; Laiarinandrasana, L.

    1995-11-01

    In some parts of primary circuit of fast breeder reactor, where the temperature is higher than 427 C, preservice inspection has revealed indications that were conservatively assumed to be sharp cracks. These pipes are made of 316 SPH material, an austenitic material close to 316L. This material is subjected to creep behavior at this temperature. Here, the behavior of defects like cracks in nuclear components operating at high temperature, where creep is significant, must be under control. There exists the need to have a practical method of analysis, which can be used by engineers, to calculate the time of initiation for defects existing at the start of life of nuclear components. This study presents the background, the development, the application, and results concerning validation work made for a simplified method named {sigma}{sub d} of prediction of initiation for nuclear structures made of 316L austenitic steel and operating at temperature where creep is significant. This method relies on the evaluation of real stress-strain history on a small distance d (d = 0.05 mm) close to the crack front and material characteristics (limiting stresses) that are available in nuclear codes like ASME Code cases or RCC-MR.

  14. Research Opportunities in Corrosion Science for Long-Term Prediction of Materials Performance: A Report of the DOE Workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”.

    SciTech Connect

    Payer, Joe H.; Scully, John R.

    2003-07-29

    The report summarizes the findings of a U.S. Department of Energy workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”. The workshop was held on July 29-30, 2003 in Bethesda, MD, and was co-sponsored by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences and Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The workshop focus was corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of materials performance in hostile environments, with special focus on relevance to the permanent disposal of nuclear waste at the Yucca Mountain Repository. The culmination of the workshop is this report that identifies both generic and Yucca Mountain Project-specific research opportunities in basic and applied topic areas. The research opportunities would be realized well after the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s initial construction-authorization licensing process. At the workshop, twenty-three invited scientists deliberated on basic and applied science opportunities in corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of damage accumulation by corrosive processes that affect materials performance.

  15. fMRI Reactivity to High-Calorie Food Pictures Predicts Short- and Long-Term Outcome in a Weight-Loss Program

    PubMed Central

    Murdaugh, Donna L.; Cox, James E.; Cook, Edwin W.; Weller, Rosalyn E.

    2011-01-01

    Behavioral studies have suggested that food cues have stronger motivating effects in obese than in normal-weight individuals, which may be a risk factor underlying obesity. Previous cross-sectional neuroimaging studies have suggested that this difference is mediated by increased reactivity to food cues in parts of the reward system in obese individuals. To date, however, only a few prospective neuroimaging studies have been conducted to examine whether individual differences in brain activation elicited by food cues can predict differences in weight change. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate activation in reward-system as well as other brain regions in response to viewing high-calorie food vs. control pictures in 25 obese individuals before and after a 12-week psychosocial weight-loss treatment and at 9-mo follow-up. In those obese individuals who were least successful in losing weight during the treatment, we found greater pre-treatment activation to high-calorie food vs. control pictures in brain regions implicated in reward-system processes, such as the nucleus accumbens, anterior cingulate, and insula. We found similar correlations with weight loss in brain regions implicated by other studies in vision and attention, such as superior occipital cortex, inferior and superior parietal lobule, and prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, less successful weight maintenance at 9-mo follow-up was predicted by greater post-treatment activation in such brain regions as insula, ventral tegmental area, putamen, and fusiform gyrus. In summary, we found that greater activation in brain regions mediating motivational and attentional salience of food cues in obese individuals at the start of a weight-loss program was predictive of less success in the program and that such activation following the program predicted poorer weight control over a 9-mo follow-up period. PMID:22332246

  16. Validation of long-term survival prediction for scheduled abdominal aortic aneurysm repair with an independent calculator using only pre-operative variables.

    PubMed

    Carlisle, J B; Danjoux, G; Kerr, K; Snowden, C; Swart, M

    2015-06-01

    We observed survival after scheduled repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm in 1096 patients for a median (IQR [range]) of 3.0 (1.5-5.8 [0-15]) years: 943 patients had complete data, 250 of whom died. We compared discrimination and calibration of an external model with the Kaplan-Meier model generated from the study data. Integrated Brier misclassification scores for both models at 1-5 postoperative years were 0.04, 0.08, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.16, respectively. Harrel's concordance index at 1-5 postoperative years was 0.73, 0.71, 0.68, 0.67 and 0.66, respectively. Groups with median 5-year predicted mortality of 40% (n = 251), 18% (n = 414) and 8% (n = 164) had lower observed mortality than 114 patients with 70% predicted mortality, hazard ratio (95% CI): 0.58 (0.37-0.76), p = 0.0031; 0.30 (0.19-0.48), p = 1.7 × 10(-12) and 0.19 (0.13-0.27), p = 1.3 × 10(-10) , respectively, test for trend p = 5.6 × 10(-15) . Survival predicted by the external calculator was similar to the Kaplan-Meier estimate.

  17. Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.

    2008-11-20

    Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gas increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.

  18. Evaluation of Four Risk-Scoring Methods to Predict Long-Term Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Aorto-Bifemoral Bypass for Aorto-Iliac Occlusive Disease

    PubMed Central

    García, Francisca; Marchena, Joaquín; Cabrera, Vicente; Hermida, María; Sotgiu, Enrico

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to determine the usefulness of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, the comorbidity Charlson index unadjusted (CCIu),the comorbidity Charlson index adjusted by age (CCIa), and the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) for postoperative morbimortality and survival in patients treated with aorto-bifemoral bypass (AFB) for aorto-iliac occlusive disease (AIOD). A series of 278 patients who underwent AFB were restrospectively studied. For the CCIu, CCIa, ASA, and GAS, receiver operating characteristics curve analysis for prediction of morbidity showed area under the curves of 0.61 (p = 0.004), 0.59 (p = 0.026), 0.569 (p = 0.087), and 0.63 (p = 0.001), respectively. Additionally, univariate analysis showed that CCIa (p = 0.016) and GAS (p = 0.006) were associated significantly with an increased risk of developing complications. Furthermore, CCIa (p < 0.001) and GAS (p = 0.001) showed a significant association with survival. Finally, the variable age was related to morbidity (p = 0.004), mortality (p = 0.038), and survival (p < 0.001). The comorbididity and the age should be taken in account in clinical treatment decisions for patients with AIOD. The CCIa and GAS may play a role as predictive factors for postoperative morbidity and survival after AFB. PMID:23450270

  19. The predictive validity of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) in a long-term follow-up of violent offenders.

    PubMed

    Churcher, Frances P; Mills, Jeremy F; Forth, Adelle E

    2016-08-01

    Over the past few decades many structured risk appraisal measures have been created to respond to this need. The Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) is a measure designed to integrate both an actuarial estimate of violence risk with critical risk management indicators. The current study examined interrater reliability and the predictive validity of the TTV in a sample of violent offenders (n = 120) over an average follow-up period of 17.75 years. The TTV was retrospectively scored and compared with the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Statistical Information of Recidivism Scale-Revised (SIR-R1), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Approximately 53% of the sample reoffended violently, with an overall recidivism rate of 74%. Although the VRAG was the strongest predictor of violent recidivism in the sample, the Actuarial Risk Estimates (ARE) scale of the TTV produced a small, significant effect. The Risk Management Indicators (RMI) produced nonsignificant area under the curve (AUC) values for all recidivism outcomes. Comparisons between measures using AUC values and Cox regression showed that there were no statistical differences in predictive validity. The results of this research will be used to inform the validation and reliability literature on the TTV, and will contribute to the overall risk assessment literature. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27504643

  20. Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

    2015-12-01

    Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent

  1. A long-term three dimensional liver co-culture system for improved prediction of clinically relevant drug-induced hepatotoxicity

    SciTech Connect

    Kostadinova, Radina; Boess, Franziska; Suter, Laura; Weiser, Thomas; Singer, Thomas; Roth, Adrian

    2013-04-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is the major cause for liver failure and post-marketing drug withdrawals. Due to species-specific differences in hepatocellular function, animal experiments to assess potential liabilities of drug candidates can predict hepatotoxicity in humans only to a certain extent. In addition to animal experimentation, primary hepatocytes from rat or human are widely used for pre-clinical safety assessment. However, as many toxic responses in vivo are mediated by a complex interplay among different cell types and often require chronic drug exposures, the predictive performance of hepatocytes is very limited. Here, we established and characterized human and rat in vitro three-dimensional (3D) liver co-culture systems containing primary parenchymal and non-parenchymal hepatic cells. Our data demonstrate that cells cultured on a 3D scaffold have a preserved composition of hepatocytes, stellate, Kupffer and endothelial cells and maintain liver function for up to 3 months, as measured by the production of albumin, fibrinogen, transferrin and urea. Additionally, 3D liver co-cultures maintain cytochrome P450 inducibility, form bile canaliculi-like structures and respond to inflammatory stimuli. Upon incubation with selected hepatotoxicants including drugs which have been shown to induce idiosyncratic toxicity, we demonstrated that this model better detected in vivo drug-induced toxicity, including species-specific drug effects, when compared to monolayer hepatocyte cultures. In conclusion, our results underline the importance of more complex and long lasting in vitro cell culture models that contain all liver cell types and allow repeated drug-treatments for detection of in vivo-relevant adverse drug effects. - Highlights: ► 3D liver co-cultures maintain liver specific functions for up to three months. ► Activities of Cytochrome P450s remain drug- inducible accross three months. ► 3D liver co-cultures recapitulate drug-induced liver toxicity

  2. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    PubMed

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation. PMID:25710772

  3. The ups and downs of repetition: Modulation of the perirhinal cortex by conceptual repetition predicts priming and long-term memory

    PubMed Central

    Heusser, Andrew C.; Awipi, Tarimotimi; Davachi, Lila

    2013-01-01

    In order to better understand how concepts might be represented in the brain, we used a cross-modal conceptual priming paradigm to examine how repetition-related activity changes in the brain are related to conceptual priming. During scanning, subjects made natural/manmade judgments on a continuous stream of spoken nouns, written nouns and pictures of objects. Each stimulus either repeated in the same or a different modality with 1-4 intervening trials between repetitions. Behaviorally, participants showed significant perceptual and conceptual priming effects. The fMRI data showed that the conditions associated with the greatest behavioral priming exhibited the largest decreases in BOLD activity in left perirhinal cortex (PRc), as well as a few other regions. Furthermore, the PRc was the only region to show this relationship for the cross-modal conditions alone, where the concept but not the percept repeated. Conversely, repetition-related increases in PRc activity predicted better subsequent memory as assessed by a post-scan recognition test. These results suggest that repetition-related activity changes in the PRc are related both to the speed of access to a repeated concept and to that concept’s later memorability. PMID:23651708

  4. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  5. Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akins, F. R.

    1979-01-01

    Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

  6. Early molecular and cytogenetic response is predictive for long-term progression-free and overall survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML).

    PubMed

    Hanfstein, B; Müller, M C; Hehlmann, R; Erben, P; Lauseker, M; Fabarius, A; Schnittger, S; Haferlach, C; Göhring, G; Proetel, U; Kolb, H-J; Krause, S W; Hofmann, W-K; Schubert, J; Einsele, H; Dengler, J; Hänel, M; Falge, C; Kanz, L; Neubauer, A; Kneba, M; Stegelmann, F; Pfreundschuh, M; Waller, C F; Branford, S; Hughes, T P; Spiekermann, K; Baerlocher, G M; Pfirrmann, M; Hasford, J; Saußele, S; Hochhaus, A

    2012-09-01

    In the face of competing first-line treatment options for CML, early prediction of prognosis on imatinib is desirable to assure favorable survival or otherwise consider the use of a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients (pts) were investigated to correlate molecular and cytogenetic response at 3 and 6 months with progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS). The persistence of BCR-ABL transcript levels >10% according to the international scale (BCR-ABL(IS)) at 3 months separated a high-risk group (28% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) from a group with >1-10% BCR-ABL(IS) (41% of pts; 5-year OS: 94%; P=0.012) and from a group with ≤1% BCR-ABL(IS) (31% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.004). Cytogenetics identified high-risk pts by >35% Philadelphia chromosome-positive metaphases (Ph+, 27% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) compared with ≤35% Ph+ (73% of pts; 5-year OS: 95%; P=0.036). At 6 months, >1% BCR-ABL(IS) (37% of pts; 5-year OS: 89%) was associated with inferior survival compared with ≤1% (63% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P<0.001) and correspondingly >0% Ph+ (34% of pts; 5-year OS: 91%) compared with 0% Ph+ (66% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.015). Treatment optimization is recommended for pts missing these landmarks. PMID:22446502

  7. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, M.; Kempka, T.; Kühn, M.

    2015-02-01

    Fully coupled, multi-phase reactive transport simulations of CO2 storage systems can be approximated by a simplified one-way coupling of hydrodynamics and reactive chemistry. The main characteristics of such systems, and hypotheses underlying the proposed alternative coupling, are (i) that the presence of CO2 is the only driving force for chemical reactions and (ii) that its migration in the reservoir is only marginally affected by immobilisation due to chemical reactions. In the simplified coupling, the exposure time to CO2 of each element of the hydrodynamic grid is estimated by non-reactive simulations and the reaction path of one single batch geochemical model is applied to each grid element during its exposure time. In heterogeneous settings, analytical scaling relationships provide the dependency of velocity and amount of reactions to porosity and gas saturation. The analysis of TOUGHREACT fully coupled reactive transport simulations of CO2 injection in saline aquifer, inspired to the Ketzin pilot site (Germany), both in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, confirms that the reaction paths predicted by fully coupled simulations in every element of the grid show a high degree of self-similarity. A threshold value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 considered chemically active is shown to mitigate the effects of the discrepancy between dissolved CO2 migration in non-reactive and fully coupled simulations. In real life, the optimal threshold value is unknown and has to be estimated, e.g. by means of 1-D or 2-D simulations, resulting in an uncertainty ultimately due to the process de-coupling. However, such uncertainty is more than acceptable given that the alternative coupling enables using grids of the order of millions of elements, profiting from much better description of heterogeneous reservoirs at a fraction of the calculation time of fully coupled models.

  8. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, M.; Kempka, T.; Kühn, M.

    2014-09-01

    Fully-coupled, multi-phase reactive transport simulations of CO2 storage systems can be approximated by a simplified one-way coupling of hydrodynamics and reactive chemistry. The main characteristics of such systems, and hypotheses underlying the proposed alternative coupling, are (i) that the presence of CO2 is the only driving force for chemical reactions and (ii) that its migration in the reservoir is only marginally affected by immobilization due to chemical reactions. In the simplified coupling, the exposure time to CO2 of each element of the hydrodynamic grid is estimated by non-reactive simulations and the reaction path of one single batch geochemical model is applied to each grid element during its exposure time. In heterogeneous settings, analytical scaling relationships provide the dependency of velocity and amount of reactions to porosity and gas saturation. The analysis of TOUGHREACT fully coupled reactive transport simulations of CO2 injection in saline aquifer, inspired to the Ketzin pilot site (Germany), both in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, confirms that the reaction paths predicted by fully coupled simulations in every element of the grid show a high degree of self-similarity. A threshold value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 considered chemically active is showed to mitigate the effects of the discrepancy between dissolved CO2 migration in non-reactive and fully coupled simulations. In real life, the optimal threshold value is unknown and has to be estimated, e.g., by means of 1-D or 2-D simulations, resulting in an uncertainty ultimately due to the process de-coupling. However, such uncertainty is more than acceptable given that the alternative coupling enables using grids in the order of million elements, profiting from much better description of heterogeneous reservoirs at a fraction of the calculation time of fully coupled models.

  9. Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strahan, Susan; Stolarski, Richard; Douglass, Anne; Steenrod, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

  10. Mechanistic Prediction of the Effect of Microstructural Coarsening on Creep Response of SnAgCu Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, S.; Chauhan, P.; Osterman, M.; Dasgupta, A.; Pecht, M.

    2016-07-01

    Mechanistic microstructural models have been developed to capture the effect of isothermal aging on time dependent viscoplastic response of Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu (SAC305) solders. SnAgCu (SAC) solders undergo continuous microstructural coarsening during both storage and service because of their high homologous temperature. The microstructures of these low melting point alloys continuously evolve during service. This results in evolution of creep properties of the joint over time, thereby influencing the long term reliability of microelectronic packages. It is well documented that isothermal aging degrades the creep resistance of SAC solder. SAC305 alloy is aged for (24-1000) h at (25-100)°C (~0.6-0.8 × T melt). Cross-sectioning and image processing techniques were used to periodically quantify the effect of isothermal aging on phase coarsening and evolution. The parameters monitored during isothermal aging include size, area fraction, and inter-particle spacing of nanoscale Ag3Sn intermetallic compounds (IMCs) and the volume fraction of micronscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs, as well as the area fraction of pure tin dendrites. Effects of microstructural evolution on secondary creep constitutive response of SAC305 solder joints were then modeled using a mechanistic multiscale creep model. The mechanistic phenomena modeled include: (1) dispersion strengthening by coarsened nanoscale Ag3Sn IMCs in the eutectic phase; and (2) load sharing between pro-eutectic Sn dendrites and the surrounding coarsened eutectic Sn-Ag phase and microscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs. The coarse-grained polycrystalline Sn microstructure in SAC305 solder was not captured in the above model because isothermal aging does not cause any significant change in the initial grain size and orientation of SAC305 solder joints. The above mechanistic model can successfully capture the drop in creep resistance due to the influence of isothermal aging on SAC305 single crystals. Contribution of grain boundary sliding to the creep strain of

  11. Data-driven modeling of radionuclide inventory at the Savannah River Site F-area seepage basins and implications for long-term behavior predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiedmer, A.; Hunt, J. R.; Agarwal, D.; Faybishenko, B.

    2012-12-01

    The availability of data is a major constraint in the development of a conceptual model and predictions of physical and chemical processes impacting contaminant behavior in the subsurface. For example, a wealth of data has been collected over the past 60 years from a network of several hundred groundwater wells and surface water monitoring stations at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). The data were collected during and following the release of low-level liquid waste into seepage basins, as well as during the application of various groundwater remediation techniques. The result is a dataset of over 350,000 measurements. To analyze these data, we used a new data management system being developed as part of the DOE initiative on Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). This system was developed for easier access, management, visualization, and exploration of large amounts of heterogeneous data. Using this system, we developed a data-driven model for the evaluation of a mass balance and the inventory of the F-Area seepage basins and the groundwater plume. Process operations at the F-area led to the discharge of more than 4×109 L of low-level liquid radioactive waste containing tritium, uranium and fission products into the seepage basins. Between 1953 and 1989, 8.6×104 Ci (corrected for evaporation and decay to 1989) of tritium was released into the basins according to operational data. Starting in the 1960s, SRS monitored radioactivity in the Fourmile Branch (FMB) located downgradient of the basins. Through 1989 around 43% of the total release was detected in FMB, leaving an estimated inventory of 57% in the subsurface as of 1989. This model was used to assess t he sources of uncertainty in the mass balance calculations. The results of calculations of the tritium inventory in groundwater were compared with those from monitoring data prior to remediation, as well as were used to estimate the time needed to achieve

  12. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  13. Reducing long-term reservoir performance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Lippmann, M.J.

    1988-04-01

    Reservoir performance is one of the key issues that have to be addressed before going ahead with the development of a geothermal field. In order to select the type and size of the power plant and design other surface installations, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the production wells and of the produced fluids, and to predict the changes over a 10--30 year period. This is not a straightforward task, as in most cases the calculations have to be made on the basis of data collected before significant fluid volumes have been extracted from the reservoir. The paper describes the methodology used in predicting the long-term performance of hydrothermal systems, as well as DOE/GTD-sponsored research aimed at reducing the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 27 refs., 1 fig.

  14. Irradiation Induced Creep of Graphite

    SciTech Connect

    Burchell, Timothy D; Murty, Prof K.L.; Eapen, Dr. Jacob

    2010-01-01

    The current status of graphite irradiation induced creep strain prediction is reviewed and the major creep models are described. The ability of the models to quantitatively predict the irradiation induced creep strain of graphite is reported. Potential mechanisms of in-crystal creep are reviewed as are mechanisms of pore generation under stress. The case for further experimental work is made and the need for improved creep models across multi-scales is highlighted.

  15. CYP2B6*6 and CYP2B6*18 Predict Long-Term Efavirenz Exposure Measured in Hair Samples in HIV-Positive South African Women.

    PubMed

    Röhrich, Carola R; Drögemöller, Britt I; Ikediobi, Ogechi; van der Merwe, Lize; Grobbelaar, Nelis; Wright, Galen E B; McGregor, Nathaniel; Warnich, Louise

    2016-06-01

    Long-term exposure to efavirenz (EFV) measured in hair samples may predict response to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Polymorphisms in CYP2B6 are known to alter EFV levels. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CYP2B6 genotype, EFV levels measured in hair, and virological outcomes on ART in a real-world setting. We measured EFV levels in hair from HIV-positive South African females who had been receiving EFV-based treatment for at least 3 months from the South African Black (SAB) (n = 81) and Cape Mixed Ancestry (CMA) (n = 53) populations. Common genetic variation in CYP2B6 was determined in 15 individuals from each population using bidirectional Sanger sequencing. Prioritized variants (n = 16) were subsequently genotyped in the entire patient cohort (n = 134). The predictive value of EFV levels in hair and selected variants in CYP2B6 on virological treatment outcomes was assessed. Previously described alleles (CYP2B6*2, CYP2B6*5, CYP2B6*6, CYP2B6*17, and CYP2B6*18), as well as two novel alleles (CYP2B6*31 and CYP2B6*32), were detected in this study. Compared to noncarriers, individuals homozygous for CYP2B6*6 had ∼109% increased EFV levels in hair (p = .016) and CYP2B6*18 heterozygotes demonstrated 82% higher EFV hair levels (p = .0006). This study confirmed that alleles affecting CYP2B6 metabolism and subsequent EFV exposure are present at significant frequencies in both the SAB and CMA populations. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that the use of hair samples for testing EFV concentrations may be a useful tool in determining long-term drug exposure in resource-limited countries.

  16. Orbits, Long-Term Predictions, Impact Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S. R.; Milani, A.; Gronchi, G. F.; Chodas, P. W.

    Methods to constrain the surface mineralogy of asteroids have seen considerable development during the last decade, with advancement in laboratory spectral calibrations and validation of interpretive methodologies by spacecraft rendezvous missions. This has enabled the accurate identification of several meteorite parent bodies in the main asteroid belt and helped constrain the mineral chemistries and abundances in ordinary chondrites and basaltic achondrites. With better quantification of spectral effects due to temperature, phase angle, and grain size, systematic discrepancies due to noncompositional factors can now be virtually eliminated for mafic silicate-bearing asteroids. Interpretation of spectrally featureless asteroids remains a challenge. This chapter presents a review of all mineralogical interpretive tools currently in use and outlines procedures for their application.

  17. A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

    2016-09-01

    A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.

  18. Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Raymond W.; Brown, Neil L.

    2005-01-01

    Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

  19. Long-term equilibrium tides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaffer, John A.; Cerveny, Randall S.

    1998-08-01

    Extreme equilibrium tides, or ``hypertides,'' are computed in a new equilibrium tidal model combining algorithms of a version of the Chapront ELP-2000/82 Lunar Theory with the BER78 Milankovitch astronomical expansions. For the recent past, a high correspondence exists between computed semidiurnal tide levels and a record of coastal flooding demonstrating that astronomical alignment is a potential influence on such flooding. For the Holocene and near future, maximum tides demonstrate cyclic variations with peaks at near 5000 B.P. and 4000 A.P. On the late Quaternary timescale, variations in maximum equilibrium tide level display oscillations with periods of approximately 10,000, 100,000 and 400,000 years, because of precessional shifts in tidal maxima between vernal and autumnal equinoxes. While flooding occurs under the combined effects of tides and storms via ``storm surges,'' the most extensive flooding will occur with the coincidence of storms and the rarer hypertides and is thus primarily influenced by hypertides. Therefore we suggest that astronomical alignment's relationship to coastal flooding is probabilistic rather than deterministic. Data derived from this model are applicable to (1) archaeological and paleoclimatic coastal reconstructions, (2) long-term planning, for example, radioactive waste site selection, (3) sealevel change and paleoestuarine studies or (4) ocean-meteorological interactions.

  20. Long-Term Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

    This report presents the concepts and issues discussed at a Regional Symposium on Long-term Planning in Higher Education held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 21-30, 1986. Chapter 1 explores some fundamental issues about the rationale for the objectives of long-term planning. It defines long-term planning in higher education, considers its…

  1. The neuronal response at extended timescales: long-term correlations without long-term memory

    PubMed Central

    Soudry, Daniel; Meir, Ron

    2014-01-01

    Long term temporal correlations frequently appear at many levels of neural activity. We show that when such correlations appear in isolated neurons, they indicate the existence of slow underlying processes and lead to explicit conditions on the dynamics of these processes. Moreover, although these slow processes can potentially store information for long times, we demonstrate that this does not imply that the neuron possesses a long memory of its input, even if these processes are bidirectionally coupled with neuronal response. We derive these results for a broad class of biophysical neuron models, and then fit a specific model to recent experiments. The model reproduces the experimental results, exhibiting long term (days-long) correlations due to the interaction between slow variables and internal fluctuations. However, its memory of the input decays on a timescale of minutes. We suggest experiments to test these predictions directly. PMID:24744724

  2. Creep lifetime prediction of oxide-dispersion-strengthened nickel-base superalloys: A micromechanically based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heilmaier, M.; Reppich, B.

    1996-12-01

    The high-temperature creep behavior of the oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) nickel-base superalloys MA 754 and MA 6000 has been investigated at temperatures up to 1273 K and lifetimes of approximately 4000 hours using monotonic creep tests at constant true stress σ, as well as true constant extension rate tests (CERTs) atdot \\varepsilon . The derivation of creep rupture-lifetime diagrams is usually performed with conventional engineering parametric methods, according to Sherby and Dorn or Larson and Miller. In contrast, an alternative method is presented that is based on a more microstructural approach. In order to describe creep, the effective stress model takes into account the hardening contribution σ p caused by the presence of second-phase particles, as well as the classical Taylor back-stress σ p caused by dislocations. The modeled strain rate-stress dependence can be transferred directly into creep-rupture stress-lifetime diagrams using a modified Monkman-Grant (MG) relationship, which adequately describes the interrelation betweendot \\varepsilon representing dislocation motion, and lifetime t f representing creep failure. The comparison with measured creep-rupture data proves the validity of the proposed micromechanical concept.

  3. Managing soils for long-term productivity

    PubMed Central

    Syers, J. K.

    1997-01-01

    Meeting the goal of long-term agricultural productivity requires that soil degradation be halted and reversed. Soil fertility decline is a key factor in soil degradation and is probably the major cause of declining crop yields. There is evidence that the contribution of declining soil fertility to soil degradation has been underestimated.
    Sensitivity to soil degradation is implicit in the assessment of the sustainability of land management practices, with wide recognition of the fact that soils vary in their ability to resist change and recover subsequent to stress. The concept of resilience in relation to sustainability requires further elaboration and evaluation.
    In the context of soil degradation, a decline in soil fertility is primarily interpreted as the depletion of organic matter and plant nutrients. Despite a higher turnover rate of organic matter in the tropics there is no intrinsic difference between the organic matter content of soils from tropical and temperate regions. The level of organic matter in a soil is closely related to the above and below ground inputs. In the absence of adequate organic material inputs and where cultivation is continuous, soil organic matter declines progressively. Maintaining the quantity and quality of soil organic matter should be a guiding principle in developing management practices.
    Soil microbial biomass serves as an important reservoir of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), and regulates the cycling of organic matter and nutrients. Because of its high turnover rate, microbial biomass reacts quickly to changes in management and is a sensitive indicator for monitoring and predicting changes in soil organic matter. Modelling techniques have been reasonably successful in predicting changes in soil organic matter with different organic material inputs, but there is little information from the tropics.
    Nutrient depletion through harvested crop components and residue removal, and by leaching and soil

  4. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  5. Comparison of measured temperatures, thermal stresses and creep residues with predictions on a built-up titanium structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Jerald M.

    1987-01-01

    Temperature, thermal stresses, and residual creep stresses were studied by comparing laboratory values measured on a built-up titanium structure with values calculated from finite-element models. Several such models were used to examine the relationship between computational thermal stresses and thermal stresses measured on a built-up structure. Element suitability, element density, and computational temperature discrepancies were studied to determine their impact on measured and calculated thermal stress. The optimum number of elements is established from a balance between element density and suitable safety margins, such that the answer is acceptably safe yet is economical from a computational viewpoint. It is noted that situations exist where relatively small excursions of calculated temperatures from measured values result in far more than proportional increases in thermal stress values. Measured residual stresses due to creep significantly exceeded the values computed by the piecewise linear elastic strain analogy approach. The most important element in the computation is the correct definition of the creep law. Computational methodology advances in predicting residual stresses due to creep require significantly more viscoelastic material characterization.

  6. Natural History of Cardiac and Respiratory Involvement, Prognosis and Predictive Factors for Long-Term Survival in Adult Patients with Limb Girdle Muscular Dystrophies Type 2C and 2D

    PubMed Central

    Fayssoil, Abdallah; Ogna, Adam; Chaffaut, Cendrine; Chevret, Sylvie; Guimarães-Costa, Raquel; Leturcq, France; Wahbi, Karim; Prigent, Helene; Lofaso, Frederic; Nardi, Olivier; Clair, Bernard; Behin, Anthony; Stojkovic, Tanya; Laforet, Pascal; Orlikowski, David; Annane, Djillali

    2016-01-01

    Background Type 2C and 2D limb girdle muscular dystrophies (LGMD) are a group of autosomal recessive limb girdle muscular dystrophies manifested by proximal myopathy, impaired respiratory muscle function and cardiomyopathy. The correlation and the prognostic impact of respiratory and heart impairment are poorly described. We aimed to describe the long-term cardiac and respiratory follow-up of these patients and to determine predictive factors of cardio-respiratory events and mortality in LGMD 2C and 2D. Methods We reviewed the charts of 34 LGMD patients, followed from 2005 to 2015, to obtain echocardiographic, respiratory function and sleep recording data. We considered respiratory events (acute respiratory failure, pulmonary sepsis, atelectasis or pneumothorax), cardiac events (acute heart failure, significant cardiac arrhythmia or conduction block, ischemic stroke) and mortality as outcomes of interest for the present analysis. Results A total of 21 patients had type 2C LGMD and 13 patients had type 2D. Median age was 30 years [IQR 24–38]. At baseline, median pulmonary vital capacity (VC) was 31% of predicted value [20–40]. Median maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) was 31 cmH2O [IQR 20.25–39.75]. Median maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was 30 cm H2O [20–36]. Median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 55% [45–64] with 38% of patients with LVEF <50%. Over a median follow-up of 6 years, we observed 38% respiratory events, 14% cardiac events and 20% mortality. Among baseline characteristics, LVEF and left ventricular end diastolic diameter (LVEDD) were associated with mortality, whilst respiratory parameters (VC, MIP, MEP) and the need for home mechanical ventilation (HMV) were associated with respiratory events. Conclusion In our cohort of severely respiratory impaired type 2C and 2D LGMD, respiratory morbidity was high. Cardiac dysfunction was frequent in particular in LGMD 2C and had an impact on long-term mortality. Trial Registration

  7. Comprehensive Creep and Thermophysical Performance of Refractory Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.K.; Wereszczak, A.; Hemrick, J.A.

    2006-06-29

    Furnace designers and refractory engineers recognize that optimized furnace superstructure design and refractory selection are needed as glass production furnaces are continually striving toward greater output and efficiencies. Harsher operating conditions test refractories to the limit, while changing production technology (such as the conversion to oxy-fuel from traditional air-fuel firing) can alter the way the materials perform [1-3]. Refractories for both oxy- and air-fuel fired furnace superstructures (see Fig. 1) are subjected to high temperatures that may cause them to creep excessively or subside during service if the refractory material is not creep resistant, or if it is subjected to high stress, or both. Furnace designers can ensure that superstructure structural integrity is maintained if the creep behavior of the refractory material is well understood and well represented by appropriate engineering creep models. Several issues limit the abilities of furnace designers to (1) choose the optimum refractory for their applications, (2) optimize the engineering design, or (3) predict the service mechanical integrity of their furnace superstructures. Published engineering creep data are essentially nonexistent for almost all commercially available refractories used for glass furnace superstructures. The limited data that do exist are supplied by the various refractory suppliers. Unfortunately, the suppliers generally have different ways of conducting their mechanical testing, and they interpret and report their data differently. This inconsistency makes it hard for furnace designers to draw fair comparisons between competing grades of candidate refractories. Furthermore, the refractory suppliers' data are often not available in a form that can be readily used for furnace design or for the prediction and design of long-term structural integrity of furnace superstructures. As a consequence, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Technology Program (ITP

  8. Ductility normalized-strain-range partitioning life relations for creep-fatigue life predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Saltsman, J. F.; Hirschberg, M. H.

    1978-01-01

    Techniques utilizing strainrange partitioning may be used to estimate the effects of the environment on the high-temperature, low-cycle, creep-fatigue resistance of alloys. Three levels of ductility-normalized strainrange-partitioning life relations are discussed: (1) strainrange partitioning relations from ductility data, (2) strainrange partitioning relations scaled by ductility ratios, and (3) strainrange partitioning life relations with measured PP lines. The procedures have demonstrated good agreement with available creep-fatigue data.

  9. Long-term solar-terrestrial observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The results of an 18-month study of the requirements for long-term monitoring and archiving of solar-terrestrial data is presented. The value of long-term solar-terrestrial observations is discussed together with parameters, associated measurements, and observational problem areas in each of the solar-terrestrial links (the sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere). Some recommendations are offered for coordinated planning for long-term solar-terrestrial observations.

  10. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.; Newman, David E.; Sanchez, Raul E.

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  11. Predictive calculations to assess the long-term effect of cementitious materials on the pH and solubility of uranium(VI) in a shallow land disposal environment

    SciTech Connect

    Criscenti, L.J.; Serne, R.J.; Krupka, K.M.; Wood, M.I.

    1996-09-01

    One proposed method of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal is to mix the radioactive waste streams with cement, place the mixture in steel barrels, and dispose of the barrels in near-surface unsaturated sediments. Cement or concrete is frequently used in burial grounds, because cement porewaters are buffered at high pH values and lanthanides and actinides; are very insoluble in highly alkaline environments. Therefore, leaching of these contaminants from the combined cement/low-level radioactive waste streams will at least initially be retarded. The calculations performed in this study demonstrate that the pH of cement porewaters will be maintained at a value greater than 10 for 10,000 years under Hanford specific hydrogeochemical conditions. Ten thousand years is the period generally studied in longterm performance assessments per regulatory guidance. The concentrations of dissolved hexavalent uranium [U(VI)], the valence form of dissolved U usually present in oxidizing surface and groundwaters, are also constrained by the high pH and predicted solution compositions over the 10,000-year period, which is favorable from a long-term performance perspective.

  12. A Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts short- and long-term all-cause mortality in older hospitalized patients with transient ischemic attack.

    PubMed

    Sancarlo, Daniele; Pilotto, Andrea; Panza, Francesco; Copetti, Massimiliano; Longo, Maria Grazia; D'Ambrosio, Piero; D'Onofrio, Grazia; Ferrucci, Luigi; Pilotto, Alberto

    2012-04-01

    A multidimensional impairment may influence the clinical outcome of acute diseases in older patients. The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) predicts short- and long-term all-cause mortality in older patients hospitalized for transient ischemic attack (TIA). In this prospective study with 1-year follow-up, 654 patients aged 65 and older with a diagnosis of TIA according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM 435.x) were enrolled. A standardized CGA that included information on functional (activities of daily living, ADL, and Instrumental ADL), cognitive status (Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire), nutrition (Mini Nutritional Assessment), risk of pressure sores (Exton-Smith Scale), comorbidities (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale), medications and co-habitation status was used to calculate the MPI for mortality using a previously validated algorithm. Higher MPI values were significantly associated with higher 1-month all-cause mortality (incidence rates: MPI-1 low risk = 0.32%, MPI-2 moderate risk = 5.36%, MPI-3 high risk = 10.42%; p < 0.001), 6-month all-cause mortality (MPI-1 = 1.95%, MPI-2 = 9.77%, MPI-3 = 27.22%; p < 0.001) and 12-month all-cause mortality (MPI-1 = 5.19%, MPI-2 = 16.47%, MPI-3 = 44.32%; p < 0.001). Age- and gender-adjusted Cox regression analyses demonstrated that MPI was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality. MPI showed a significant high discriminatory power with an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.819, 95% CI = 0.749-0.888 for 1-month mortality, 0.799, 95% CI = 0.738-0.861 for 6-month mortality and 0.770, 95% CI = 0.716-0.824 for 12-month mortality. The MPI, calculated from information collected in a standardized CGA, appeared to be effective in estimating short- and long-term all-cause mortality in

  13. Financing long-term care in Canada.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, P; Mills, C; Hollander, M

    1997-06-01

    Financial policies relating to long-term care in Canada are changing rapidly in response to demands for health care reform. This chapter focuses on the financial structure of institutional care, primarily nursing homes, in the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. Community-based long-term care is discussed briefly.

  14. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  15. Long-term preservation of Anammox bacteria

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Deposit of useful microorganisms in culture collections requires long-term preservation and successful reactivation techniques. The goal of this study was to develop a simple preservation protocol for the long-term storage and reactivation of the anammox biomass. To achieve this, anammox biomass w...

  16. Paying for long-term care.

    PubMed Central

    Estes, C L; Bodenheimer, T

    1994-01-01

    Everyone agrees that insurance for long-term care is inadequate in the United States. Disagreement exists, however, on whether such insurance should be provided through the private or public sector. Private insurance generally uses the experience-rating principle that persons with higher risk of illness are charged higher premiums. For private insurance for long-term care, this principle creates a dilemma. Most policies will be purchased by the elderly; yet, because the elderly have a high risk of needing long-term care, only about 20% of them can afford the cost of premiums. A public-private partnership by which the government partially subsidizes private long-term-care insurance is unlikely to resolve this dilemma. Only a social insurance program for long-term care can provide universal, affordable, and equitable coverage. PMID:8128712

  17. Marijuana effects on long-term memory assessment and retrieval.

    PubMed

    Darley, C F; Tinklenberg, J R; Roth, W T; Vernon, S; Kopell, B S

    1977-05-01

    The ability of 16 college-educated male subjects to recall from long-term memory a series of common facts was tested during intoxication with marijuana extract calibrated to 0.3 mg/kg delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and during placebo conditions. The subjects' ability to assess their memory capabilities was then determined by measuring how certain they were about the accuracy of their recall performance and by having them predict their performance on a subsequent recognition test involving the same recall items. Marijuana had no effect on recall or recognition performance. These results do not support the view that marijuana provides access to facts in long-term storage which are inaccessible during non-intoxication. During both marijuana and placebo conditions, subjects could accurately predict their recognition memory performance. Hence, marijuana did not alter the subjects' ability to accurately assess what information resides in long-term memory even though they did not have complete access to that information.

  18. Arsenic-induced QT dispersion is associated with atherosclerotic diseases and predicts long-term cardiovascular mortality in subjects with previous exposure to arsenic: A 17-Year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chih-Hao; Chen, Chi-Ling; Hsiao, Chuhsing Kate; Chiang, Fu-Tien; Hsu, Ling-I; Chiou, Hung-Yi; Hsueh, Yu-Mei; Wu, Meei-Maan; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2010-03-01

    Chronic arsenic poisoning is a major worldwide public health problem. Recently, we had reported chronic arsenic poisoning was dose-dependently associated with ventricular abnormalities quantified by electrocardiographic QT prolongation linking to atherosclerotic diseases. An association of chronic arsenic poisoning with ventricular repolarization inhomogeneity quantified by QT dispersion (QTD) is of particular interest from a theoretical and practical perspective. We aimed to further elucidate (1) the association of chronic arsenic exposure with ventricular abnormalities quantified by QTD, (2) the association of QTD with atherosclerotic diseases and (3) the predictability of QTD for long-term mortality in subjects with chronic arsenic poisoning. We followed up 280 men and 355 women living in arseniasis-endemic area in southwestern coast in Taiwan for 17 years. QTD in electrocardiogram and carotid intima-media thickness by ultrasonography were measured. Coronary artery disease was diagnosed by an abnormal electrocardiogram and a definite history. Cumulative arsenic exposure was significantly associated with QTD showing a dose-response relationship (P < 0.001). Significant associations of the QTD with coronary artery disease and carotid atherosclerosis existed after adjustment for potential confounders in the multiple linear regression analysis (all P values < 0.05). In the multivariate Cox regression analyses, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval, P value) of cumulative cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were 3.9 (2.1-6.2, P = 0.002) and 1.4 (0.9-2.3, P = 0.10), respectively, for QTD > or = 65 ms compared with QTD < 65. QTD may be indicated as an early biomarker for atherosclerotic diseases and a significant and strong predictor of cardiovascular mortality in population with chronic arsenic exposure.

  19. Deterministic Multiaxial Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancements for CARES/Creep Integrated Design Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of sum, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of Ns methodology and the

  20. The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

    2006-01-01

    Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

  1. Long Term Effects of Food Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... develop chronic arthritis. Brain and nerve damage A Listeria infection can lead to meningitis, an inflammation of ... brain. If a newborn infant is infected with Listeria , long-term consequences may include mental retardation, seizures, ...

  2. Asthma Medicines: Long-Term Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... Español Text Size Email Print Share Asthma Medicines: Long-term Control Page Content Article Body Corticosteroids Synthetic ... and sprinkle forms are available for young children. Long-Acting Beta2-Agonists Medications in the beta 2 - ...

  3. Method for Water Management Considering Long-term Probabilistic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, J.; Kang, J.; Suh, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    This research is aimed at predicting the monthly inflow of the Andong-dam basin in South Korea using long-term probabilistic forecasts to apply long-term forecasts to water management. Forecasted Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) of monthly precipitation are plotted by combining the range of monthly precipitation based on proper Probability Density Function (PDF) in past data with probabilistic forecasts in each category. Ensembles of inflow are estimated by entering generated ensembles of precipitation based on the CDFs into the 'abcd' water budget model. The bias and RMSE between averages in past data and observed inflow are compared to them in forecasted ensembles. In our results, the bias and RMSE of average precipitation in the forecasted ensemble are bigger than in past data, whereas the average inflow in the forecasted ensemble is smaller than in past data. This result could be used for reference data to apply long-term forecasts to water management, because of the limit in the number of forecasted data for verification and differences between the Andong-dam basin and the forecasted regions. This research has significance by suggesting a method of applying probabilistic information in climate variables from long-term forecasts to water management in Korea. Original data of a climate model, which produces long-term probabilistic forecasts should be verified directly as input data of a water budget model in the future, so that a more scientific response in water management against uncertainty of climate change could be reached.

  4. Stirling engine - Approach for long-term durability assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.; Bartolotta, Paul A.; Halford, Gary R.; Freed, Alan D.

    1992-01-01

    The approach employed by NASA Lewis for the long-term durability assessment of the Stirling engine hot-section components is summarized. The approach consists of: preliminary structural assessment; development of a viscoplastic constitutive model to accurately determine material behavior under high-temperature thermomechanical loads; an experimental program to characterize material constants for the viscoplastic constitutive model; finite-element thermal analysis and structural analysis using a viscoplastic constitutive model to obtain stress/strain/temperature at the critical location of the hot-section components for life assessment; and development of a life prediction model applicable for long-term durability assessment at high temperatures. The approach should aid in the provision of long-term structural durability and reliability of Stirling engines.

  5. Long Term Outcomes after Pediatric Liver Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Long term outcomes after liver transplantation are major determinants of quality of life and of the value of this heroic treatment. As short term outcomes are excellent, our community is turning to take a harder look at long term outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to review these outcomes, and highlight proposed treatments, as well as pressing topics needing to be studied. A systemic review of the English literature was carried in PubMed, covering all papers addressing long term outcomes in pediatric liver transplant from 2000-2013. Late outcomes after pediatric liver transplant affect the liver graft in the form of chronic liver dysfunction. The causes include rejection particularly humoral rejection, but also de novo autoimmune hepatitis, and recurrent disease. The metabolic syndrome is a major factor in long term cardiovascular complication risk. Secondary infections, kidney dysfunction and malignancy remain a reality of those patients. There is growing evidence of late cognitive and executive function delays affecting daily life productivity as well as likely adherence. Finally, despite a good health status, quality of life measures are comparable to those of children with chronic diseases. Long term outcomes are the new frontier in pediatric liver transplantation. Much is needed to improve graft survival, but also to avoid systemic morbidities from long term immunosuppression. Quality of life is a new inclusive measure that will require interventions and innovative approaches respectful not only on the patients but also of their social circle. PMID:24511516

  6. Short and long-term strength of shale rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybacki, Erik; Dresen, Georg

    2016-04-01

    Stimulation of oil and gas bearing shales commonly utilizes advanced hydraulic fracturing techniques to enhance the production rate. Successful hydrofrac campaigns depend on the geomechanical properties of the reservoir. For example, the short term strength and brittleness may control the hydraulic breakdown pressure and borehole stability. The long term creep properties may determine the closure rate of hydraulically induced fractures, for example by proppant embedment. We performed a series of mechanical tests on shales with different mineral content, porosity and maturity. Cylindrical samples of 1-5 cm in diameter and 2-10 cm in length were deformed at confining pressures of 0.1 - 400 MPa and temperatures of 25°-400°C in constant strain rate and constant stress mode in order to evaluate the influence of loading conditions and composition on their strength and ductility. Short-term constant strain rate tests show that, at fixed loading direction with respect to bedding orientation, the peak strength and Young's modulus vary with mineral content, humidity and porosity, but depend also on applied pressure, temperature and strain rate. The (porosity-corrected) variation of peak strength and Young's modulus with composition can be roughly estimated from the mechanical behavior of all components at given pressure-temperature conditions and their volumetric proportion. Samples deforming in the brittle-semibrittle regime may be characterized by empirical brittleness indices based on their deformation behavior, Young's modulus, or bulk composition. These indices are correlated at low pressure-temperature conditions (corresponding to < about 4 km depth). First long-term deformation experiments at constant load show transient viscoplastic creep behavior. The associated strain rates increase with increasing differential stress, increasing temperature and decreasing pressure, accompanied by slight porosity reduction. Therefore, estimates of fracture healing rates by

  7. NT-proBNP Predicts Cardiovascular Death in the General Population Independent of Left Ventricular Mass and Function: Insights from a Large Population-Based Study with Long-Term Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Dietl, Alexander; Stark, Klaus; Zimmermann, Martina E.; Meisinger, Christa; Schunkert, Heribert; Birner, Christoph; Maier, Lars S.; Peters, Annette

    2016-01-01

    Aims B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) predict cardiovascular endpoints in patients and all-cause death in the general population. This was assigned to their association with clinical cardiac remodelling defined as changes in size, shape and function of the heart. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether NT-proBNP and BNP were associated with cardiovascular and overall death independent of clinical cardiac remodelling measured by echocardiography as left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), diastolic dysfunction and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF). Methods and Results In a general population-based cohort study from Germany (KORA-S3) with subjects’ baseline age ranging from 25 to 74 years, cardiac morphology and function were assessed as left ventricular mass (LVM), diastolic dysfunction and EF by echocardiography and circulating NT-proBNP and BNP were measured at baseline. In 1,223 subjects with mortality follow-up information, we examined the association of baseline NT-proBNP and BNP with cardiovascular mortality (number of deaths = 52, median follow-up time = 12.9years) using Cox regression without and with adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, LVM, diastolic dysfunction and EF. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with higher NT-proBNP levels measured at baseline (hazard ratio HR = 1.67 per unit increment in logNT-proBNP, p = 2.78*10−4, adjusted for age and sex). This increased risk persisted after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, LVM, diastolic dysfunction and EF (HR = 1.73; p = 0.047). When excluding subjects with relevant LVH (LVM to body surface area > 149g/m2 in men / 122g/m2 in women), the NT-proBNP association with mortality was still significant (n = 1,138; number of deaths = 35; HR = 1.48; p = 0.04). We found similar results for BNP. Conclusion Our data confirms NT-proBNP and BNP as predictor of cardiovascular mortality in a large general population-based study with long-term follow

  8. Long term integrity for space station power systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leckie, F. A.; Marriott, D. L.

    1991-01-01

    A study was made of the High Temperature Design Codes ASME N47, British R5, and the French RCC-MR Rules. It is concluded that all these codes provide a good basis of design for space application. The new British R5 is the most complete since it deals with the problem of defects. The ASME N47 was subjected longer to practical application and scrutiny. A draft code is introduced, and a proposed draft for high temperature design in which attempts were made to identify gaps and improvements is suggested. The design is limited by creep characteristics. In these circumstances, life is strongly affected by the selected value of the factor of safety. The factor of safety of primary loads adopted in the codes is 1.5. Maybe a lower value of 1.25 is permissible for use in space. Long term creep rupture data for HAYNES 188 is deficient and it is suggested that extrapolation methods be investigated.

  9. Long-term home care research.

    PubMed

    Green, J H

    1989-11-01

    The population of seniors is growing and health service reimbursement is shrinking. Long-term home health care services were developed with an assumption that the services would decrease costs. This assumption has not been validated. What has been recognized is that long-term home health care targets a new and growing population of frail seniors who need services but are probably not at risk for institutionalization. The impact of long-term home care services on the health status and quality of life of seniors and caregivers has been limited by outcome measurement problems. There are indications that the services improved life satisfaction and reduced services needs, but further evaluations need to replicate the outcomes. In effect, long-term outcomes have not been sufficiently explored. Further research also needs to assist us in identifying outcomes for certain services with precise target populations. Public policy questions are ahead. Should a program that can increase costs, has demonstrated some but not dramatic impacts on quality of life and health status, and has the possibility of expansion, be funded? The question is obviously debatable. From a nursing perspective of health promotion and prevention, the answer is "yes." Funding should be continued in conjunction with increased research on the program impacts. In Kane's (1988) analysis of the Channeling experiments, she summarized the situation effectively: Knowing these facts, we are now in a position to reformulate public policies to design a system of long-term care that satisfies the preferences of consumers and protects them from catastrophic long-term expenses, while promoting the triple virtues of acceptable, quality, equitable access, and defensible costs. . . Nothing in the Channeling results should prevent us from going ahead and trying to develop both community based and institutionally based long-term services in which this country can take pride.

  10. Application of the cracked pipe element to creep crack growth prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Brochard, J.; Charras, T.

    1997-04-01

    The modification of a computer code for leak before break analysis is very briefly described. The CASTEM2000 code was developed for ductile fracture assessment of piping systems with postulated circumferential through-wall cracks under static or dynamic loading. The modification extends the capabilities of the cracked pipe element to the determination of fracture parameters under creep conditions (C*, {phi}c and {Delta}c). The model has the advantage of evaluating significant secondary effects, such as those from thermal loading.

  11. Application of strainrange partitioning to the prediction of creep-fatigue lives of AISI types 304 and 316 stainless steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    As a demonstration of the predictive capabilities of the method of Strainrange Partitioning, published high-temperature, low cycle, creep-fatigue test results on AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel were analyzed and calculated, cyclic lives compared with observed lives. Predicted lives agreed with observed lives within factors of two for 76 percent, factors of three for 93 percent, and factors of four for 98 percent of the laboratory tests analyzed. Agreement between observed and predicted lives is judged satisfactory considering that the data are associated with a number of variables (two alloys, several heats and heat treatments, a range of temperatures, different testing techniques, etc.) that are not directly accounted for in the calculations.

  12. Application of Strainrange Partitioning to the prediction of creep-fatigue lives of AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1977-01-01

    As a demonstration of the predictive capabilities of the method of Strainrange Partitioning, published high-temperature, low cycle, creep-fatigue test results on AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel were analyzed and calculated cyclic lives compared with observed lives. Predicted lives agreed with observed lives within factors of two for 76 percent, factors of three for 93 percent, and factors of four for 98 percent of the laboratory tests analyzed. Agreement between observed and predicted lives is judged satisfactory considering that the data are associated with a number of variables (two alloys, several heats and heat treatments, a range of temperatures, different testing techniques, etc.) that are not directly accounted for in the calculations.

  13. Long-term outcomes of autoimmune pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Ikeura, Tsukasa; Miyoshi, Hideaki; Shimatani, Masaaki; Uchida, Kazushige; Takaoka, Makoto; Okazaki, Kazuichi

    2016-09-14

    Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) has been considered a favorable-prognosis disease; however, currently, there is limited information on natural course of AIP during long-term follow-up. Recently published studies regarding the long-term outcomes of AIP has demonstrated the developments of pancreatic stone formation, exocrine insufficiency, and endocrine insufficiency are observed in 5%-41%, 34%-82%, and 38%-57% of patients having the disease. Furthermore, the incidence rate of developing pancreatic cancer ranges from 0% to 4.8% during the long-term follow-up. The event of death from AIP-related complications other than accompanying cancer is likely to be rare. During follow-up of AIP patients, careful surveillance for not only relapse of the disease but also development of complications at regular intervals is needed. PMID:27678359

  14. Long-term outcomes of autoimmune pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    Ikeura, Tsukasa; Miyoshi, Hideaki; Shimatani, Masaaki; Uchida, Kazushige; Takaoka, Makoto; Okazaki, Kazuichi

    2016-01-01

    Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) has been considered a favorable-prognosis disease; however, currently, there is limited information on natural course of AIP during long-term follow-up. Recently published studies regarding the long-term outcomes of AIP has demonstrated the developments of pancreatic stone formation, exocrine insufficiency, and endocrine insufficiency are observed in 5%-41%, 34%-82%, and 38%-57% of patients having the disease. Furthermore, the incidence rate of developing pancreatic cancer ranges from 0% to 4.8% during the long-term follow-up. The event of death from AIP-related complications other than accompanying cancer is likely to be rare. During follow-up of AIP patients, careful surveillance for not only relapse of the disease but also development of complications at regular intervals is needed. PMID:27678359

  15. Long-term outcomes of autoimmune pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    Ikeura, Tsukasa; Miyoshi, Hideaki; Shimatani, Masaaki; Uchida, Kazushige; Takaoka, Makoto; Okazaki, Kazuichi

    2016-01-01

    Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) has been considered a favorable-prognosis disease; however, currently, there is limited information on natural course of AIP during long-term follow-up. Recently published studies regarding the long-term outcomes of AIP has demonstrated the developments of pancreatic stone formation, exocrine insufficiency, and endocrine insufficiency are observed in 5%-41%, 34%-82%, and 38%-57% of patients having the disease. Furthermore, the incidence rate of developing pancreatic cancer ranges from 0% to 4.8% during the long-term follow-up. The event of death from AIP-related complications other than accompanying cancer is likely to be rare. During follow-up of AIP patients, careful surveillance for not only relapse of the disease but also development of complications at regular intervals is needed.

  16. Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines

    PubMed Central

    Potts, Nicholas L.S.; Krishnan, K. Ranga R.

    1992-01-01

    Problems associated with physical dependence and abuse of benzodiazepines by a small percentage of patients have reduced their popularity from the most commonly prescribed psychoactive drug in the 1970s to being prescribed for mainly short periods. Patients who benefit from long-term benzodiazepine use are nearly ignored by the medical community as a whole. This article details what patient population can improve from long-term benzodiazepine therapy, the risks and benefits of treatment, and how to select appropriate candidates. PMID:21229127

  17. Long-term outcomes after severe shock.

    PubMed

    Pratt, Cristina M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Kuttler, Kathryn G; Lanspa, Michael J; Wilson, Emily L; Hopkins, Ramona O; Brown, Samuel M

    2015-02-01

    Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 μg/kg per minute of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured 3-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years; 82% (62 of 76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of 5 years after hospital admission. The patients' Physical Functioning scores were below U.S. population norms (P < 0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety, and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full-time. Early survivors of severe shock had a high 3-year survival rate. Patients' long-term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill intensive care unit survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term outcomes. Even extremely

  18. Scenarios for long-term analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wolbers, Stephen; /Fermilab

    2009-01-01

    Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis of High Energy Physics (HEP) Experiments data is described and summarized in this talk. The summary covers information presented at the First Workshop on Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis. Experiments representing e{sup +}e{sup -} collisions (LEP, B Factories and CLEO), ep collisions (H1 and ZEUS), p{bar p} collisions (CDF and D0) and others presented interesting information related to utilizing the large datasets collected over many years at these HEP facilities. Many questions and issues remain to be explored.

  19. Long-term sealing analyses for US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Ehgartner, B.

    1994-02-01

    It is inevitable that sealing and abandonment will someday occur in a SPR cavern or caverns. To gain insight into the long-term behavior of a typical SPR cavern following sealing and abandonment, a suite of mechanical finite-element calculations was performed. The initial analyses predict how quickly and to what extent a cavern pressurizes after it is plugged. The analyses also examine the stability of the cavern as it changes shape due to the excessive pressures generated as the salt creeps and the brine in the cavern thermally expands. These large-scale analyses do not include the details of the plug but assume a good seal is established in the cavern wells. In another series of analyses, the potential for forming a leak at the plug is evaluated. A cement plug, emplaced in the casing seat of a cavern well, is loaded using the predicted brine pressures from the cavern analyses. The plugged casing analyses examine the potential for forming a leak path in and along the interfaces of salt, casing, and cement plug. In the last set of analysis, the dimensional scale of the problem is further reduced to examine a preexisting crack along a casing/salt interface. The cracked interface is assumed to be fluid filled and fully pressurized by the cavern fluids. The analyses address the potential for the fluid path to extend upwards along a plugged casing should an open microannulus surround the casing after it is plugged.

  20. SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    1997-01-01

    The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

  1. Characteristics of Long-Term First Marriages.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenell, David L.

    1993-01-01

    Investigated characteristics of long-term first marriages (over 20 years). Findings from 147 couples revealed: lifetime commitment to marriage, loyalty to spouse, strong moral values, respect for spouse as best friend, commitment to sexual fidelity, desire to be good parent, faith in God, desire to please and support spouse, good companion to…

  2. Long Term Transfer Effect of Metaphoric Allusion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, David A.; Mateja, John A.

    A study was conducted to investigate the long term transfer effect of metaphoric allusion used to clarify unfamiliar subject matter. Forty-nine high school students were given unfamiliar prose materials variously augmented by metaphoric allusion. The subjects' immediate performance on a transfer task was compared to their performance on an…

  3. Long-Term Stability of Social Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo

    2008-01-01

    The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…

  4. Evaluating Long-Term Disability Insurance Plans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Jan

    1992-01-01

    This report analyzes the factors involved in reviewing benefits and services of employer-sponsored group long-term disability plans for higher education institutions. Opening sections describe the evolution of disability insurance and its shape today. Further sections looks at the complex nature of "value" within a plan, relationship between plan…

  5. LONG TERM HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LTHIA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    LTHIA is a universal Urban Sprawl analysis tool that is available to all at no charge through the Internet. It estimates impacts on runoff, recharge and nonpoint source pollution resulting from past or proposed land use changes. It gives long-term average annual runoff for a lan...

  6. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  7. Who Recommends Long-Term Care Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Robert L.; Bershadsky, Boris; Bershadsky, Julie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Making good consumer decisions requires having good information. This study compared long-term-care recommendations among various types of health professionals. Design and Methods: We gave randomly varied scenarios to a convenience national sample of 211 professionals from varying disciplines and work locations. For each scenario, we…

  8. Long-term lysimeter data on evapotranspiration

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long term crop evapotranspiration (ET) data measured using large weighing lysimeters have only been gathered in a few places in the world, yet are of great importance for ground truthing of many models of plant water use, mesoscale climate, remote sensing estimation of ET, climate change and climate...

  9. Professionalism in Long-Term Care Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubinski, Rosemary

    2006-01-01

    Speech-language pathologists who serve elders in a variety of long-term care settings have a variety of professional skills and responsibilities. Fundamental to quality service is knowledge of aging and communication changes and disorders associated with this process, institutional alternatives, and the changing nature of today's elders in…

  10. Plutonium packaging and long-term storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lloyd, Jane A.; Wedman, Douglas E.

    2000-07-01

    It has been demonstrated that the Advanced Recovery and Integrated Extraction System (ARIES) packaging line at Los Alamos National Laboratory can successfully package plutonium to meet DOE requirements for safe long-term storage. The ARIES system has just completed the disassembly and conversion of its first cores ("pits") for nuclear weapons.

  11. Long-Term Sequelae of Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Teasell, Robert W.

    1992-01-01

    Scant attention has been paid to the long-term consequences and complications resulting from a stroke. Many stroke survivors go on to develop a variety of medical, musculoskeletal, and psychosocial complications, years after the acute stroke. The family physician is regularly called upon to deal with these problems, but is often hampered by a lack of resources. PMID:21221264

  12. Relationship between short- and long-term memory and short- and long-term extinction.

    PubMed

    Cammarota, Martín; Bevilaqua, Lia R M; Rossato, Janine I; Ramirez, Maria; Medina, Jorge H; Izquierdo, Iván

    2005-07-01

    Both the acquisition and the extinction of memories leave short- and long-term mnemonic traces. Here, we show that in male Wistar rats, the short-term memory for a step-down inhibitory avoidance task (IA) is resistant to extinction, and that its expression does not influence retrieval or extinction of long-term memory. It has been known for some time that short- and long-term inhibitory avoidance memory involve separate and parallel processes. Here we show that, instead, short-term extinction of IA long-term memory is the first step towards its long-term extinction, and that this link requires functional NMDA receptors and protein synthesis in the CA1 region of the dorsal hippocampus at the time of the first CS-no US presentation.

  13. Critical issues for long-term environmental monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.

    1996-12-31

    Detecting global change and variations is a demanding problem. Changes and variations are manifested in the environmental record in many forms such as jumps, trends, cycles, and quasi-cycles. each characteristic is superimposed upon a background of high short-term variability. For example, short-term weather and seasonal climate variability often obscures longer-term changes and variations. Early detection of natural and anthropogenically induced environmental change is critically dependent on a monitoring system that can deliver data that reflects changes and variations not dependent on type of instrument or procedure used. At this time in many instances documenting important aspects of environmental change and variability is poor. Measured long-term data, both space-based and in-situ measurements, have been collected primarily for short-term applications such as weather prediction. Only in rare instances have data been collected for the purpose of documenting long-term (decadal to century) changes. Long-term environmental monitoring, capable of resolving decade-to-century scale changes, requires a strategy of operation that focuses on detecting the trends, jumps, cycle, and quasi-cycles of the system against the backdrop of high short-term variability. Continued investment in data management and analyses to minimize time-varying biases and other data quality problems from past and present data are essential if we are to adequately understand environmental variations and change, but these analyses will never replace foresight with respect to ongoing and planned observing systems required for long-term monitoring. Long-term environmental monitoring that will be capable of providing robust information about decadal-to-century scale changes and variations will require adherence to a number of guiding precepts that are discussed.

  14. Long-term change in thermospheric temperature above Saint Santin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donaldson, J. K.; Wellman, T. J.; Oliver, W. L.

    2010-11-01

    The 1966-1987 Saint Santin/Nançay incoherent scatter radar database is analyzed to determine long-term trends beyond those associated with the "natural" variations of solar and magnetic activity, season, and time of day. Trends averaging some -3 K/yr are found in the F region. Positive trends in the E region may be explained by the subsidence of an overlying warmer regime of air. The trend line seems to change slope around the "breakpoint" year 1979, with the cooling changing from -0.8 K/yr before that time to -5.5 K/yr afterward at 350 km altitude. These trends greatly exceed those predicted by model simulations for increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, carbon dioxide shows no such breakpoint year, but ozone does, near the time of the change in thermospheric trend, and a surface climatic regime shift has also been reported near this time. It is not clear that greenhouse gases are driving the long-term trend in thermospheric temperature. Restriction of analysis to a particular time of day results in greatly different trends, from near zero at midnight to -6 K/yr at noon at 350 km altitude. A separate analysis to determine the long-term trend in the amplitude of the 24 h tide at 350 km altitude shows a large change, with the amplitude diminishing from 136 K in 1966 to 89 K in 1988. Our results show the great need to remove all other natural variations from long-term data sets in determining long-term trends to avoid great ambiguity in trend interpretation.

  15. The Role of Eta Phase Formation on the Creep Strength and Ductility of INCONEL Alloy 740 t 1023 k (750 Degrees C)

    SciTech Connect

    Shingledecker, John P; Pharr, George Mathews

    2012-01-01

    INCONEL alloy 740 is an age-hardenable nickel-based superalloy proposed for advanced ultrasupercritical steam boiler applications operating at high stress and long times above 973 K (700 C), where creep will be the dominate deformation mode. During high-temperature exposure, the alloy can form eta phase platelets that many have suggested may be detrimental to creep strength and ductility. In this study, creep-rupture tests were conducted on smooth and notched bars of INCONEL alloy 740 at 1023 K (750 C) for times up to 20,000 hours. Examination of the creep-rupture life, creep ductility, failure modes, and microstructure by quantitative electron microscopy shows that a small amount of eta phase does not diminish the creep performance. Applied stress appears to have a minor effect on the precipitation of the eta phase but not its growth rate. Based on the observation that the microstructure after 20,000 hours of creep exposure has reached equilibrium in comparison to thermodynamic calculations, it is concluded that 20,000 hour creep tests are adequate for prediction of long-term creep performance.

  16. The Role of Eta Phase Formation on the Creep Strength and Ductility of INCONEL Alloy 740 at 1023 K (750 °C)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shingledecker, J. P.; Pharr, G. M.

    2012-06-01

    INCONEL alloy 740 is an age-hardenable nickel-based superalloy proposed for advanced ultrasupercritical steam boiler applications operating at high stress and long times above 973 K (700 °C), where creep will be the dominate deformation mode. During high-temperature exposure, the alloy can form eta phase platelets that many have suggested may be detrimental to creep strength and ductility. In this study, creep-rupture tests were conducted on smooth and notched bars of INCONEL alloy 740 at 1023 K (750 °C) for times up to 20,000 hours. Examination of the creep-rupture life, creep ductility, failure modes, and microstructure by quantitative electron microscopy shows that a small amount of eta phase does not diminish the creep performance. Applied stress appears to have a minor effect on the precipitation of the eta phase but not its growth rate. Based on the observation that the microstructure after 20,000 hours of creep exposure has reached equilibrium in comparison to thermodynamic calculations, it is concluded that 20,000 hour creep tests are adequate for prediction of long-term creep performance.

  17. Phase transformation and long-term service of high-temperature martensitic chromium steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalashnikov, I. S.; Tarasenko, L.; Acselrad, O.; Pereira, L. C.; Shalkevich, A.; Soboleva, G.

    2000-02-01

    Martensitic high Cr (10 - 16%) steels alloyed with Ni (Co), Mo, W, V, and N are widely used in constructions subjected to cyclic loads at temperatures up to 600 degrees Celsius, in general after quenching from 1100 - 1150 degrees Celsius followed by tempering at 650 - 690 degrees Celsius. Due to long term service exposure at high temperatures, different microstructural changes take place, such as second-phases precipitation, formation of low-angle grain boundaries, as well as internal damage caused by cyclic loads and creep. Specific phase diagrams are presented that can be used to define time periods for reliable operation of parts with given composition, based on the time required for the appearance of second phase particles known to be detrimental to mechanical strength and performance. Restoring thermal treatments to be applied after long time exposure at service conditions, aiming at increasing service life, are also presented and discussed. The combined use of the diagrams and the restoring treatment ensures prediction of a reliable service-life period for components made of these steels.

  18. Phase transformation and long-term service of high-temperature martensitic chromium steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalashnikov, I. S.; Tarasenko, L.; Acselrad, O.; Pereira, L. C.; Shalkevich, A.; Soboleva, G.

    2001-02-01

    Martensitic high Cr (10 - 16%) steels alloyed with Ni (Co), Mo, W, V, and N are widely used in constructions subjected to cyclic loads at temperatures up to 600 degrees Celsius, in general after quenching from 1100 - 1150 degrees Celsius followed by tempering at 650 - 690 degrees Celsius. Due to long term service exposure at high temperatures, different microstructural changes take place, such as second-phases precipitation, formation of low-angle grain boundaries, as well as internal damage caused by cyclic loads and creep. Specific phase diagrams are presented that can be used to define time periods for reliable operation of parts with given composition, based on the time required for the appearance of second phase particles known to be detrimental to mechanical strength and performance. Restoring thermal treatments to be applied after long time exposure at service conditions, aiming at increasing service life, are also presented and discussed. The combined use of the diagrams and the restoring treatment ensures prediction of a reliable service-life period for components made of these steels.

  19. Long-term changes in Saturn's troposphere

    SciTech Connect

    Trafton, L.

    1985-09-01

    Attention is given to the results of a long term monitoring study of Saturn's H/sub 2/ quadrupole and CH/sub 4/ band absorptions outside the equatorial zone, over an interval of half a Saturn year that covers most of the perihelion half of Saturn's elliptical orbit (which is approximately bounded by the equinoxes). Marked long term changes are noted in the CH/sub 4/ absorption, accompanied by weakly opposite changes in the H/sub 2/ absorption. Seasonal changes are inferred on the basis of temporal variations in absorption. Spatial measurements have also been made in the 6450 A NH/sub 3/ band since the 1980 equinox. 42 references.

  20. [Taiwan long-term care insurance and the evolution of long-term care in Japan].

    PubMed

    Huang, Hui-Wen; Liu, Shu-Hui; Pai, Yu-Chu

    2010-08-01

    The proportion of elderly (65 years of age and older) in Taiwan has exceeded 10% since 2008. With more elderly, the number of patients suffering from dementia and disabilities has also been rapidly increasing. Japan also has been facing increasing demand for long-term care due to an aging society. Prior to 2000, social welfare programs in Japan, working to cope with changing needs, typically provided insufficient services, and geriatric patients were hospitalized unnecessarily, wasting medical resources and causing undue patient hardship. In response, Japan launched its long-term care insurance program in April 2000. Under the program, city, town and village-based organizations should take responsibility for providing care to the elderly in their place of residence. The program significantly improved previous financial shortfalls and long-term care supply and demand has been met by existing social welfare organization resources. In Taiwan, the provision of long-term care by county / city authorities has proven inconsistent, with performance deemed poor after its first decade of long-term care operations. Service was found to be affected by differences in available resources and insufficient long-term care administration. The cultures of Taiwan and Japan are similar. The authors visited the Japan Long-Term Care Insurance Institute in August 2009. Main issues involved in the implementation and evolution of the Japan long-term Care Insurance are reported on in this paper. We hope such may be useful information to those working to develop long-term care programs in Taiwan. PMID:20661859

  1. Cutaneous oxalosis after long-term hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Abuelo, J G; Schwartz, S T; Reginato, A J

    1992-07-01

    A 27-year-old woman undergoing long-term hemodialysis developed cutaneous calcifications on her fingers. A skin biopsy specimen showed that the deposits were calcium oxalate. To our knowledge, only one previous article has reported pathologic and crystallographic studies on calcifications of the skin resulting from dialysis oxalosis. We speculate that vitamin C supplements, liberal tea consumption, an increased serum ionized calcium concentration, and the long duration of hemodialysis contributed to the production of these deposits.

  2. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    PubMed

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  3. Consequences of long-term hyperparathyroidism.

    PubMed

    Graal, M B; Wolffenbuttel, B H

    1998-07-01

    We describe a young woman with long-term untreated hyperparathyroidism with a superimposed vitamin D deficiency and an extremely decreased bone mineral density that was complicated by a vertebral fracture. Despite pretreatment with intravenous pamidronate and short-term vitamin D supplementation, severe and long-standing hypocalcaemia ('hungry bone syndrome') developed after parathyroidectomy. We discuss the consequences of hyperparathyroidism, especially the effects on bone, the complications of parathyroidectomy and the possibilities of preoperative treatment with bisphosphonates.

  4. Long-term consequences of anorexia nervosa.

    PubMed

    Meczekalski, Blazej; Podfigurna-Stopa, Agnieszka; Katulski, Krzysztof

    2013-07-01

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a psychiatric disorder that occurs mainly in female adolescents and young women. The obsessive fear of weight gain, critically limited food intake and neuroendocrine aberrations characteristic of AN have both short- and long-term consequences for the reproductive, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and skeletal systems. Neuroendocrine changes include impairment of gonadotropin releasing-hormone (GnRH) pulsatile secretion and changes in neuropeptide activity at the hypothalamic level, which cause profound hypoestrogenism. AN is related to a decrease in bone mass density, which can lead to osteopenia and osteoporosis and a significant increase in fracture risk in later life. Rates of birth complications and low birth weight may be higher in women with previous AN. The condition is associated with fertility problems, unplanned pregnancies and generally negative attitudes to pregnancy. During pregnancy, women with the condition have higher rates of hyperemesis gravidarum, anaemia and obstetric complications, as well as impaired weight gain and compromised intrauterine foetal growth. It is reported that 80% of AN patients are affected by a cardiac complications such as sinus bradycardia, a prolonged QT interval on electrocardiography, arrythmias, myocardial mass modification and hypotension. A decrease in bone mineral density (BMD) is one of the most important medical consequences of AN. Reduced BMD may subsequently lead to a three- to seven-fold increased risk of spontaneous fractures. Untreated AN is associated with a significant increase in the risk of death. Better detection and sophisticated therapy should prevent the long-term consequences of this disorder. The aims of treatment are not only recovery but also prophylaxis and relief of the long-term effects of this disorder. Further investigations of the long-term disease risk are needed. PMID:23706279

  5. Thermal creep model for CWSR zircaloy-4 cladding taking into account the annealing of the irradiation hardening

    SciTech Connect

    Cappelaere, Chantal; Limon, Roger; Duguay, Chrstelle; Pinte, Gerard; Le Breton, Michel; Bouffioux, Pol; Chabretou, Valerie; Miquet, Alain

    2012-02-15

    After irradiation and cooling in a pool, spent nuclear fuel assemblies are either transported for wet storage to a devoted site or loaded in casks for dry storage. During dry transportation or at the beginning of dry storage, the cladding is expected to be submitted to creep deformation under the hoop stress induced by the internal pressure of the fuel rod. The thermal creep is a potential mechanism that might lead to cladding failure. A new creep model was developed, based on a database of creep tests on as-received and irradiated cold-worked stress-relieved Zircaloy-4 cladding in a wide range of temperatures (310 degrees C to 470 degrees C) and hoop stress (80 to 260 MPa). Based on three laws-a flow law, a strain-hardening recovery law, and an annealing of irradiation hardening law this model allows the simulation of not only the transient creep and the steady-state creep, but also the early creep acceleration observed on irradiated samples tested in severe conditions, which was not taken into account in the previous models. The extrapolation of the creep model in the conditions of very long-term creep tests is reassuring, proving the robustness of the chosen formalism. The creep model has been assessed in progressively decreasing stress conditions, more representative of a transport. Set up to predict the cladding creep behavior under variable temperature and stress conditions, this model can easily be implemented into codes in order to simulate the thermomechanical behavior of spent fuel rods in various scenarios of postirradiation phases. (authors)

  6. Electrodes for long-term esophageal electrocardiography.

    PubMed

    Niederhauser, Thomas; Haeberlin, Andreas; Marisa, Thanks; Jungo, Michael; Goette, Josef; Jacomet, Marcel; Abacherli, Roger; Vogel, Rolf

    2013-09-01

    The emerging application of long-term and high-quality ECG recording requires alternative electrodes to improve the signal quality and recording capability of surface skin electrodes. The esophageal ECG has the potential to overcome these limitations but necessitates novel recorder and lead designs. The electrode material is of particular interest, since the material has to ensure conflicting requirements like excellent biopotential recording properties and inertness. To this end, novel electrode materials like PEDOT and silver-PDMS as well as established electrode materials such as stainless steel, platinum, gold, iridium oxide, titanium nitride, and glassy carbon were investigated by long-term electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and model-based signal analysis using the derived in vitro interfacial properties in conjunction with a dedicated ECG amplifier. The results of this novel approach show that titanium nitride and iridium oxide featuring microstructured surfaces did not degrade when exposed to artificial acidic saliva. These materials provide low electrode potential drifts and insignificant signal distortion superior to surface skin electrodes making them compatible with accepted standards for ambulatory ECG. They are superior to the noble and polarizable metals such as platinum, silver, and gold that induced more signal distortions and are superior to esophageal stainless steel electrodes that corrode in artificial saliva. The study provides rigorous criteria for the selection of electrode materials for prolonged ECG recording by combining long-term in vitro electrode material properties with ECG signal quality assessment.

  7. [Long-term survival after severe trauma].

    PubMed

    Mutschler, W; Mutschler, M; Graw, M; Lefering, R

    2016-07-01

    Long-term survival after severe trauma is rarely addressed in German trauma journals although knowledge of life expectancy and identification of factors contributing to increased mortality are important for lifetime care management, development of service models, and targeting health promotion and prevention interventions. As reliable data in Germany are lacking, we compiled data mainly from the USA and Australia to describe life expectancy, risk factors, and predictors of outcome in patients experiencing traumatic spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and polytrauma. Two years after trauma, life expectancy in all three categories was significantly lower than that of the general population. It depends strongly on severity of disability, age, and gender and is quantifiable. Whereas improvements in medical care have led to a marked decline in short-term mortality, surprisingly long-term survival in severe trauma has not changed over the past 30 years. Therefore, there is need to intensify long-term trauma patient care and to find new strategies to limit primary damage. PMID:27342106

  8. Titanium for long-term tritium storage

    SciTech Connect

    Heung, L.K.

    1994-12-01

    Due to the reduction of nuclear weapon stockpile, there will be an excess of tritium returned from the field. The excess tritium needs to be stored for future use, which might be several years away. A safe and cost effective means for long term storage of tritium is needed. Storing tritium in a solid metal tritide is preferred to storing tritium as a gas, because a metal tritide can store tritium in a compact form and the stored tritium will not be released until heat is applied to increase its temperature to several hundred degrees centigrade. Storing tritium as a tritide is safer and more cost effective than as a gas. Several candidate metal hydride materials have been evaluated for long term tritium storage. They include uranium, La-Ni-Al alloys, zirconium and titanium. The criteria used include material cost, radioactivity, stability to air, storage capacity, storage pressure, loading and unloading conditions, and helium retention. Titanium has the best combination of properties and is recommended for long term tritium storage.

  9. Long-term EEG in children.

    PubMed

    Montavont, A; Kaminska, A; Soufflet, C; Taussig, D

    2015-03-01

    Long-term video-EEG corresponds to a recording ranging from 1 to 24 h or even longer. It is indicated in the following situations: diagnosis of epileptic syndromes or unclassified epilepsy, pre-surgical evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy, follow-up of epilepsy or in cases of paroxysmal symptoms whose etiology remains uncertain. There are some specificities related to paediatric care: a dedicated pediatric unit; continuous monitoring covering at least a full 24-hour period, especially in the context of pre-surgical evaluation; the requirement of presence by the parents, technician or nurse; and stronger attachment of electrodes (cup electrodes), the number of which is adapted to the age of the child. The chosen duration of the monitoring also depends on the frequency of seizures or paroxysmal events. The polygraphy must be adapted to the type and topography of movements. It is essential to have at least an electrocardiography (ECG) channel, respiratory sensor and electromyography (EMG) on both deltoids. There is no age limit for performing long-term video-EEG even in newborns and infants; nevertheless because of scalp fragility, strict surveillance of the baby's skin condition is required. In the specific context of pre-surgical evaluation, long-term video-EEG must record all types of seizures observed in the child. This monitoring is essential in order to develop hypotheses regarding the seizure onset zone, based on electroclinical correlations, which should be adapted to the child's age and the psychomotor development.

  10. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 3, phase 3: Full size heat shield data correlation and design criteria. [reentry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cramer, B. A.; Davis, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Analysis methods for predicting cyclic creep deflection in stiffened metal panel structures, were applied to full size panels. Results were compared with measured deflections from cyclic tests of thin gage L605, Rene' 41, and TDNiCr full size corrugation stiffened panels. A design criteria was then formulated for metallic thermal protection panels subjected to creep. A computer program was developed to calculate creep deflections.

  11. Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

    2013-01-01

    Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

  12. The Parable of the Sower and the Long-Term Effects of Early Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suggate, Sebastian P.

    2015-01-01

    Previous work on the long-term effects of early reading focuses on whether children can read early (i.e. capability) not on whether this is beneficial (i.e. optimality). The Luke Effect is introduced to predict long-term reading development as a function of when children learn to read. A review of correlational, intervention, and comparative…

  13. Short- and Long-Term Outcomes for Extremely Preterm Infants.

    PubMed

    Patel, Ravi Mangal

    2016-02-01

    Prematurity is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. In developed countries, extremely preterm infants contribute disproportionately to both neonatal and infant mortality. Survival of this high-risk population has incrementally improved in recent years. Despite these improvements, approximately one in four extremely preterm infants dies during the birth hospitalization. Among those who survive, respiratory and other morbidities are common, although their effect on quality of life is variable. In addition, long-term neurodevelopmental impairment is a large concern for patients, clinicians, and families. However, the interplay of multiple factors contributes to neurodevelopmental impairment, with measures that change over time and outcomes that can be difficult to define and predict. Understanding outcomes of extremely preterm infants can help better counsel families regarding antenatal and postnatal care and guide strategies to improve survival without morbidity. This review summarizes recent evidence to provide an overview into the short- and long-term outcomes for extremely preterm infants.

  14. Long-Term Monitoring Research Needs: A DOE Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, B.; Davis, C. B.

    2002-05-01

    critically on the validity and uncertainty in models used to predict contaminant fate and transport. This is an area of active research at the present time. We survey joint research initiatives in this area involving DOE along with USGS, U.S. EPA, U.S. NRC, and U.S. DOA and non-Federal collaborators, and explore their potential for furthering DOE long-term monitoring needs and objectives.

  15. Brief summary of the evolution of high-temperature creep-fatigue life prediction models for crack initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    1993-01-01

    The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940's. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches were identified as being combinations of thirteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made. The need for high-temperature, fatigue-life prediction methods followed immediately on the heels of the development of large, costly, high-technology industrial and aerospace equipment immediately following the second world war. Major advances were made in the design and manufacture of high-temperature, high-pressure boilers and steam turbines, nuclear reactors, high-temperature forming dies, high-performance poppet valves, aeronautical gas turbine engines, reusable rocket engines, etc. These advances could no longer be accomplished simply by trial and error using the 'build-em and bust-em' approach. Development lead times were too great and costs too prohibitive to retain such an approach. Analytic assessments of anticipated performance, cost, and durability were introduced to cut costs and shorten lead times. The analytic tools were quite primitive at first and out of necessity evolved in parallel with hardware development. After forty years more descriptive, more accurate, and more efficient analytic tools are being developed. These include thermal-structural finite element and boundary element

  16. Long-term EARLINET dust observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mona, Lucia; Amiridis, Vassilis; Amodeo, Aldo; Binietoglou, Ioannis; D'Amico, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Anja; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Papayannis, Alexandros; Sicard, Michael; Comeron, Adolfo; Pappalardo, Gelsomina

    2015-04-01

    Systematic observations of Saharan dust events over Europe are performed from May 2000 by EARLINET, the European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork. EARLINET is a coordinated network of stations that make use of advanced lidar methods for the vertical profiling of aerosols. The backbone of EARLINET network is a common schedule for performing the measurements and the quality assurance of instruments/data. Particular attention is paid to monitoring the Saharan dust intrusions over the European continent. The geographical distribution of the EARLINET stations is particularly appealing for the dust observation, with stations located all around the Mediterranean and in the center of the Mediterranean (Italian stations) where dust intrusions are frequent, and with several stations in the central Europe where dust penetrates occasionally. All aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles related to observations collected during these alerts are grouped in the devoted "Saharan dust" category of the EARLINET database. This category consists of about 4700 files (as of December 2013). Case studies involving several stations around Europe selected from this long-term database have been provided the opportunity to investigate dust modification processes during transport over the continent. More important, the long term EARLINET dust monitoring allows the investigation of the horizontal and vertical extent of dust outbreaks over Europe and the climatological analysis of dust optical intensive and extensive properties at continental scale. This long-term database is also a unique tool for a systematic comparison with dust model outputs and satellite-derived dust products. Because of the relevance for both dust modeling and satellite retrievals improvement, results about desert dust layers extensive properties as a function of season and source regions are investigated and will be presented at the conference. First comparisons with models outputs and CALIPSO dust products will be

  17. Prediction and Monitoring Systems of Creep-Fracture Behavior of 9Cr-1Mo Steels for Teactor Pressure Vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Potirniche, Gabriel; Barlow, Fred D.; Charit, Indrajit; Rink, Karl

    2013-11-26

    A recent workshop on next-generation nuclear plant (NGNP) topics underscored the need for research studies on the creep fracture behavior of two materials under consideration for reactor pressure vessel (RPV) applications: 9Cr-1Mo and SA-5XX steels. This research project will provide a fundamental understanding of creep fracture behavior of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel welds for through modeling and experimentation and will recommend a design for an RPV structural health monitoring system. Following are the specific objectives of this research project: Characterize metallurgical degradation in welded modified 9Cr-1Mo steel resulting from aging processes and creep service conditions; Perform creep tests and characterize the mechanisms of creep fracture process; Quantify how the microstructure degradation controls the creep strength of welded steel specimens; Perform finite element (FE) simulations using polycrystal plasticity to understand how grain texture affects the creep fracture properties of welds; Develop a microstructure-based creep fracture model to estimate RPVs service life; Manufacture small, prototypic, cylindrical pressure vessels, subject them to degradation by aging, and measure their leak rates; Simulate damage evolution in creep specimens by FE analyses; Develop a model that correlates gas leak rates from welded pressure vessels with the amount of microstructural damage; Perform large-scale FE simulations with a realistic microstructure to evaluate RPV performance at elevated temperatures and creep strength; Develop a fracture model for the structural integrity of RPVs subjected to creep loads; and Develop a plan for a non-destructive structural health monitoring technique and damage detection device for RPVs.

  18. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  19. Long Term Analysis for the BAM device

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonino, D.; Gardiol, D.

    2011-02-01

    Algorithms aimed at the evaluation of critical quantities are based on models with many parameters, which values are estimated from data. The knowledge, with high accuracy, of these values and the control of their temporal evolution are important features. In this work, we focus on the latter subject, and we show a proposed pipeline for the BAM (Basic Angle Monitoring) Long Term Analysis, aimed at the study of the calibration parameters of the BAM device and of the Basic Angle variation, searching for unwanted trends, cyclic features, or other potential unexpected behaviours.

  20. Long-term outcomes in multiple gestations.

    PubMed

    Rand, Larry; Eddleman, Keith A; Stone, Joanne

    2005-06-01

    Children born from a multiple gestation are at increased risk for cerebral palsy, learning disability, and language and neurobehavioral deficits. With the increased incidence of multiple pregnancies and use of assisted reproductive technology (ART), these issues are more commonly affecting parents. Long-term outcomes are a critical part of preconceptual and early pregnancy counseling for parents faced with a multiple gestation or considering ART, and the provider should be well versed on issues surrounding zygosity, gestational age, higher-order multiples, and the effects of options such as multifetal pregnancy reduction. PMID:15922795

  1. Long-Term Wind Power Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Wan, Y. H.

    2012-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory started collecting wind power data from large commercial wind power plants (WPPs) in southwest Minnesota with dedicated dataloggers and communication links in the spring of 2000. Over the years, additional WPPs in other areas were added to and removed from the data collection effort. The longest data stream of actual wind plant output is more than 10 years. The resulting data have been used to analyze wind power fluctuations, frequency distribution of changes, the effects of spatial diversity, and wind power ancillary services. This report uses the multi-year wind power data to examine long-term wind power variability.

  2. Long-term effects of sibling incest.

    PubMed

    Daie, N; Witztum, E; Eleff, M

    1989-11-01

    Although sexual abuse of children is recognized as a serious problem, sibling incest has received relatively little attention. A distinction has been made between power-oriented sibling incest and nurturance-oriented incest. The authors review the relevant literature and present four clinical examples. The cases illustrate the broad range of sibling incest and demonstrate its effects, including the long-term consequences for the perpetrator. Lasting difficulties in establishing and maintaining close relationships, especially sexual ones, are prominent features of each case. Without denying the occurrences of benign sex-play between siblings, the authors emphasize exploitation and abuse as pathogenic aspects of sibling incest.

  3. Long-term space flights - personal impressions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakov, V. V.

    During a final 4-month stage of a 1-year space flight of cosmonauts Titov and Manarov, a physician, Valery Polyakov was included on a crew for the purpose of evaluating their health, correcting physical status to prepare for the spacecraft reentry and landing operations. The complex program of scientific investigations and experiments performed by the physician included an evaluation of adaptation reactions of the human body at different stages of space mission using clinicophysiological and biochemical methods; testing of alternative regimes of exercise and new countermeasures to prevent an unfavourable effect of long-term weightlessness.

  4. Irradiation Creep in Graphite

    SciTech Connect

    Ubic, Rick; Butt, Darryl; Windes, William

    2014-03-13

    An understanding of the underlying mechanisms of irradiation creep in graphite material is required to correctly interpret experimental data, explain micromechanical modeling results, and predict whole-core behavior. This project will focus on experimental microscopic data to demonstrate the mechanism of irradiation creep. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy should be able to image both the dislocations in graphite and the irradiation-induced interstitial clusters that pin those dislocations. The team will first prepare and characterize nanoscale samples of virgin nuclear graphite in a transmission electron microscope. Additional samples will be irradiated to varying degrees at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) facility and similarly characterized. Researchers will record microstructures and crystal defects and suggest a mechanism for irradiation creep based on the results. In addition, the purchase of a tensile holder for a transmission electron microscope will allow, for the first time, in situ observation of creep behavior on the microstructure and crystallographic defects.

  5. 17 CFR 256.224 - Other long-term debt.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Other long-term debt. 256.224... COMPANY ACT OF 1935 6. Long-Term Debt § 256.224 Other long-term debt. This account shall include all long-term debt to nonassociates and not subject to current settlement. Note: Subaccounts shall be...

  6. 17 CFR 256.224 - Other long-term debt.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Other long-term debt. 256.224... COMPANY ACT OF 1935 6. Long-Term Debt § 256.224 Other long-term debt. This account shall include all long-term debt to nonassociates and not subject to current settlement. Note: Subaccounts shall be...

  7. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  8. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  9. Simulator induced syndrome: evidence for long-term aftereffects.

    PubMed

    Ungs, T J

    1989-03-01

    Pilots have experienced various adverse symptoms hours and even days following flight simulator training. This study surveyed pilots undergoing simulator training in an attempt to provide an initial gauge of the extent, severity, and possible risk factors of long-term (greater than 1 day) simulator aftereffects. A three-part voluntary and anonymous questionnaire was used to gather data. We studied pilots of varying experience undergoing advanced flight training which included the use of flight simulators. Some 238 pilots participated in the study, and 196 completed the follow-up survey concerning long-term effects. Nine (4.6%) pilots experienced adverse symptoms 24 h or more after completion of their last simulator training, which they attributed to their recent simulator experience. Symptoms reported included: recurrent visual flashbacks, continued balance disturbance, and hand-eye discoordination. Three pilots (1.5%) reported difficulties flying aircraft. Pilot flight experience level, total simulator time, length of simulator session, and sex were not predictive of risk. This study suggests that long-term (greater than 1 day) adverse aftereffects may occur following simulator training.

  10. Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

    PubMed

    Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

    2005-09-01

    We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

  11. A Comparison of Tension and Compression Creep in a Polymeric Composite and the Effects of Physical Aging on Creep Behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gates, Thomas S.; Veazie, David R.; Brinson, L. Catherine

    1996-01-01

    Experimental and analytical methods were used to investigate the similarities and differences of the effects of physical aging on creep compliance of IM7/K3B composite loaded in tension and compression. Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated for two load cases, tension and compression. The tests, run over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures, provided material constants, material master curves and aging related parameters. Comparing results from the short-term data indicated that although trends in the data with respect to aging time and aging temperature are similar, differences exist due to load direction and mode. The analytical model used for predicting long-term behavior using short-term data as input worked equally as well for the tension or compression loaded cases. Comparison of the loading modes indicated that the predictive model provided more accurate long term predictions for the shear mode as compared to the transverse mode. Parametric studies showed the usefulness of the predictive model as a tool for investigating long-term performance and compliance acceleration due to temperature.

  12. Teen motherhood and long-term health consequences.

    PubMed

    Patel, Payal H; Sen, Bisakha

    2012-07-01

    The objective of this article is to examine the association of teen motherhood and long-term physical and mental health outcomes. The physical and mental health components (PCS and MCS) of the SF-12 Healthy Survey in the NLSY79 health module were used to assess long-term health outcomes of women who experienced teenage motherhood. Various familial, demographic, and environmental characteristics were indentified and controlled for that may have predicted teen motherhood and long-term health outcomes. The two comparison groups for teen mothers were women who experienced teen-pregnancy only and women who were engaged in unprotected sexual activity as a teenage but did not experience pregnancy. Multivariate ordinary least squares regression was used for analysis. The average PCS and MCS for teen mothers was 49.91 and 50.89, respectively. Teen mothers exhibited poorer physical health later in life compared to all women as well as the comparison groups. When controlling for age, teen mothers had significantly lower PCS and MCS scores compared to all other women. Furthermore, when controlling for familial, demographic, and environmental characteristics, teen mothers exhibited significantly lower PCS and MCS scores. When comparing teen mothers to the two comparison groups, PCS was not statistically different although MCS was significantly lower in the teen-pregnancy group. Teen motherhood does lead to poorer physical health outcomes later in life. On the other hand, poorer mental health outcomes in later life may be attributed to the unmeasured factors leading to a teen pregnancy and not teen motherhood itself. Additional research needs to be conducted on the long-term consequences of teen motherhood.

  13. Long-term care as part of the continuum.

    PubMed

    McGrail, Kimberlyn

    2011-01-01

    Long-term care (LTC) is but one piece of a continuum of care that stretches from living at home completely independently to the 24-hour supervision and care provided in LTC facilities. People want to stay at home as long as possible and to retain as much independence as they can, and they are often aided in doing so with informal care provided by family and friends. These realities should inform the debates around the construction of the continuum of care. Canada's spending on facility-based long-term care puts us in the middle of the pack among OECD countries; if we consider the whole of continuing care, combining LTC, supportive housing/assisted living and home-based healthcare, Canada stands out as spending the highest proportion (among the 15 countries compared) on facility-based care. Predicting the number of new long-term care beds needed in the future is difficult because of shifting needs and changes in service delivery - new stops on the continuum of care. It is quite possible to organize a system of care that includes a continuum from home-based care to supportive housing and assisted living to LTC that de-emphasizes this last step. The increasing elderly population in Canada will not bring an apocalypse to the healthcare system, but caring for this population will require a redistribution of resources to increase the emphasis on home and community-based services. Our planning for just how many (if any) new long-term care beds are needed and our assessment of reasonable access to those beds need to rest on a vision for the full spectrum of care and attention to the desires of the population we are trying to serve. PMID:21593615

  14. Principles of Long-Term Dynamics of Dendritic Spines

    PubMed Central

    Yasumatsu, Nobuaki; Matsuzaki, Masanori; Miyazaki, Takashi; Noguchi, Jun; Kasai, Haruo

    2008-01-01

    Long-term potentiation (LTP) of synapse strength requires enlargement of dendritic spines on cerebral pyramidal neurons. Long-term depression (LTD) is linked to spine shrinkage. Indeed, spines are dynamic structures: they form, change their shapes and volumes or can disappear in the space of hours. Do all such changes result from synaptic activity, or do some changes result from intrinsic processes? How do enlargement and shrinkage of spines relate to elimination and generation of spines, and how do these processes contribute to the stationary distribution of spine volumes? To answer these questions, we recorded the volumes of many individual spines daily for several days using two-photon imaging of CA1 pyramidal neurons in cultured slices of rat hippocampus between postnatal day 17 to 23. With normal synaptic transmission, spines often changed volume or were created or eliminated, thereby showing activity-dependent plasticity. However, we found that spines changed volume even after we blocked synaptic activity, reflecting a native instability of these small structures over the long term. Such “intrinsic flu