Full long-term design response analysis of a wave energy converter

DOE PAGES

Coe, Ryan G.; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey; ...

2017-09-21

Efficient design of wave energy converters requires an accurate understanding of expected loads and responses during the deployment lifetime of a device. A study has been conducted to better understand best-practices for prediction of design responses in a wave energy converter. A case-study was performed in which a simplified wave energy converter was analyzed to predict several important device design responses. The application and performance of a full long-term analysis, in which numerical simulations were used to predict the device response for a large number of distinct sea states, was studied. Environmental characterization and selection of sea states for thismore » analysis at the intended deployment site were performed using principle-components analysis. The full long-term analysis applied here was shown to be stable when implemented with a relatively low number of sea states and convergent with an increasing number of sea states. As the number of sea states utilized in the analysis was increased, predicted response levels did not change appreciably. Furthermore, uncertainty in the response levels was reduced as more sea states were utilized.« less

Full long-term design response analysis of a wave energy converter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coe, Ryan G.; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey

Efficient design of wave energy converters requires an accurate understanding of expected loads and responses during the deployment lifetime of a device. A study has been conducted to better understand best-practices for prediction of design responses in a wave energy converter. A case-study was performed in which a simplified wave energy converter was analyzed to predict several important device design responses. The application and performance of a full long-term analysis, in which numerical simulations were used to predict the device response for a large number of distinct sea states, was studied. Environmental characterization and selection of sea states for thismore » analysis at the intended deployment site were performed using principle-components analysis. The full long-term analysis applied here was shown to be stable when implemented with a relatively low number of sea states and convergent with an increasing number of sea states. As the number of sea states utilized in the analysis was increased, predicted response levels did not change appreciably. Furthermore, uncertainty in the response levels was reduced as more sea states were utilized.« less

Georgia Long-Term Pavement Performance (GALTPP) Program – Maintaining Georgia’s Calibration Sites and Identifying the Potential for Using MEPDG for Characterization of Non-Standard Materials and Methods (Phase 1)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) has initiated a Georgia Long-Term Pavement Performance (GALTPP) monitoring program 1) to provide data for calibrating the prediction models in the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEP...

Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akins, F. R.

1979-01-01

Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

A Long Short-Term Memory deep learning network for the prediction of epileptic seizures using EEG signals.

PubMed

Tsiouris, Κostas Μ; Pezoulas, Vasileios C; Zervakis, Michalis; Konitsiotis, Spiros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios D; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

2018-05-17

The electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most prominent means to study epilepsy and capture changes in electrical brain activity that could declare an imminent seizure. In this work, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are introduced in epileptic seizure prediction using EEG signals, expanding the use of deep learning algorithms with convolutional neural networks (CNN). A pre-analysis is initially performed to find the optimal architecture of the LSTM network by testing several modules and layers of memory units. Based on these results, a two-layer LSTM network is selected to evaluate seizure prediction performance using four different lengths of preictal windows, ranging from 15 min to 2 h. The LSTM model exploits a wide range of features extracted prior to classification, including time and frequency domain features, between EEG channels cross-correlation and graph theoretic features. The evaluation is performed using long-term EEG recordings from the open CHB-MIT Scalp EEG database, suggest that the proposed methodology is able to predict all 185 seizures, providing high rates of seizure prediction sensitivity and low false prediction rates (FPR) of 0.11-0.02 false alarms per hour, depending on the duration of the preictal window. The proposed LSTM-based methodology delivers a significant increase in seizure prediction performance compared to both traditional machine learning techniques and convolutional neural networks that have been previously evaluated in the literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

PubMed

Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

2017-07-01

This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

2018-03-01

The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P < 0.001). The deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

EOID Model Validation and Performance Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-30

Our long-term goal is to accurately predict the capability of the current generation of laser-based underwater imaging sensors to perform Electro ... Optic Identification (EOID) against relevant targets in a variety of realistic environmental conditions. The two most prominent technologies in this area

Temporal variations in the potential hydrological performance of extensive green roof systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De-Ville, Simon; Menon, Manoj; Stovin, Virginia

2018-03-01

Existing literature provides contradictory information about variation in potential green roof hydrological performance over time. This study has evaluated a long-term hydrological monitoring record from a series of extensive green roof test beds to identify long-term evolutions and sub-annual (seasonal) variations in potential hydrological performance. Monitoring of nine differently-configured extensive green roof test beds took place over a period of 6 years in Sheffield, UK. Long-term evolutions and sub-annual trends in maximum potential retention performance were identified through physical monitoring of substrate field capacity over time. An independent evaluation of temporal variations in detention performance was undertaken through the fitting of reservoir-routing model parameters. Aggregation of the resulting retention and detention variations permitted the prediction of extensive green roof hydrological performance in response to a 1-in-30-year 1-h summer design storm for Sheffield, UK, which facilitated the comparison of multi and sub-annual hydrological performance variations. Sub-annual (seasonal) variation was found to be significantly greater than long-term evolution. Potential retention performance increased by up to 12% after 5-years, whilst the maximum sub-annual variation in potential retention was 27%. For vegetated roof configurations, a 4% long-term improvement was observed for detention performance, compared to a maximum 63% sub-annual variation. Consistent long-term reductions in detention performance were observed in unvegetated roof configurations, with a non-standard expanded-clay substrate experiencing a 45% reduction in peak attenuation over 5-years. Conventional roof configurations exhibit stable long-term hydrological performance, but are nonetheless subject to sub-annual variation.

Predicting the recruitment of established regeneration into the sapling size class following partial cutting in the Acadian Forest Region: Using long-term observations to assess the performance of FVS-NE

Treesearch

David Ray; Chad Keyser; Robert Seymour; John Brissette

2008-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly called upon to provide long-term predictions of forest development. The dynamics of regeneration establishment, survival and subsequent recruitment of established seedlings to larger size classes is a critical component of these forecasts, yet remains a weak link in available models. To test the reliability of FVS-NE for simulating...

Lung to head ratio in infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia does not predict long term pulmonary hypertension.

PubMed

Garcia, Alejandro V; Fingeret, Abbey L; Thirumoorthi, Arul S; Hahn, Eunice; Leskowitz, Matthew J; Aspelund, Gudrun; Krishnan, Usha S; Stolar, Charles J H

2013-01-01

Lung-to-head ratio (LHR) has been used for antenatal evaluation of infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We hypothesized that LHR was predictive of acute and chronic pulmonary hypertension in infants with CDH. Echocardiograms on all inborn infants with CDH (December 2001-March 2011) were reviewed. Echocardiograms at 1 and 3 months post-repair and most recent follow-up were assessed for presence of pulmonary hypertension (PAH). LHR, gestational age, birth weight, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and death rate were obtained. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. 106 infants with CDH had LHR obtained at median 28 weeks gestation (median LHR=1.25 [range 0.4-5.3]). Median follow-up was 26.6 months (range 4.6-97.5). The long-term incidence of pulmonary hypertension was 16%. LHR was significantly associated with pulmonary hypertension at one month (p=0.0001) but not at 3 months (p=0.22) or long-term (p=0.54). LHR was predictive of ECMO use (p=0.01) and death (p=0.001). The overall incidence of PAH in infants with CDH decreases over time. Prenatal LHR predicts PAH at one month but not long-term in infants with CDH. The ability for LHR to predict PAH at one month but not long term may suggest remodeling of the pulmonary vasculature over time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DIVERGT screening procedure predicts general cognitive functioning in adult long-term survivors of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia: A PETALE study.

PubMed

Boulet-Craig, Aubree; Robaey, Philippe; Laniel, Julie; Bertout, Laurence; Drouin, Simon; Krajinovic, Maja; Laverdière, Caroline; Sinnett, Daniel; Sultan, Serge; Lippé, Sarah

2018-05-24

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common cancer in children. Because of major improvements in treatment protocols, the survival rate now exceeds 80%. However, ALL treatments can cause long-term neurocognitive sequelae, which negatively impact academic achievement and quality of life. Therefore, cognitive sequelae need to be carefully evaluated. The DIVERGT is a battery of tests proposed as a screening tool, sensitive to executive function impairments in children and adolescent cancer survivors. Our study aimed at verifying the predictive value of the DIVERGT on general cognitive functioning in adult long-term survivors of ALL. ALL survivors completed the DIVERGT 13.4 years, on average, after remission (N = 247). In addition, 49 of these survivors (equally selected amongst those with low, average, and high DIVERGT scores) as well as 29 controls completed a more comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation within a 3-year period from DIVERGT administration. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the predictive value of the DIVERGT on general intelligence, mathematics, verbal memory, and working memory. As a follow-up analysis, three performance groups were created based on the DIVERGT results. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) assessed neuropsychological differences between groups. The DIVERGT accurately predicted General Ability Index (GAI) (P < 0.0001), mathematics (P < 0.0001) and verbal memory (P = 0.045). Moreover, the low-performance group consistently had poorer performance than the high-performance and control groups on the neuropsychological tests. The DIVERGT is a useful, time-effective screening battery for broader neurocognitive impairments identification in long-term adult ALL survivors. It could be implemented as routine examination in cancer follow-up clinics. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring.

PubMed

Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D; Larson, Timothy V; Keller, Joshua P; Kaufman, Joel D

2017-01-01

Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction modeling approach for estimating long-term concentrations of PM2.5 in cohort studies before the 1999 implementation of widespread monitoring. Environ Health Perspect 125:38-46; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP131.

A Comparison of Tension and Compression Creep in a Polymeric Composite and the Effects of Physical Aging on Creep Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Veazie, David R.; Brinson, L. Catherine

1996-01-01

Experimental and analytical methods were used to investigate the similarities and differences of the effects of physical aging on creep compliance of IM7/K3B composite loaded in tension and compression. Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated for two load cases, tension and compression. The tests, run over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures, provided material constants, material master curves and aging related parameters. Comparing results from the short-term data indicated that although trends in the data with respect to aging time and aging temperature are similar, differences exist due to load direction and mode. The analytical model used for predicting long-term behavior using short-term data as input worked equally as well for the tension or compression loaded cases. Comparison of the loading modes indicated that the predictive model provided more accurate long term predictions for the shear mode as compared to the transverse mode. Parametric studies showed the usefulness of the predictive model as a tool for investigating long-term performance and compliance acceleration due to temperature.

Flight experience of Solar Mesosphere Explorer's two nickel-cadmium batteries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faber, J.

1985-01-01

The performance of the power system on the solar mesosphere explorer (SME) since launch is discussed. Predictions for continued operation for the rest of the project mission are also discussed. The SME satellite's power system was characterized by both insufficient loading and excessive battery charging during the first year of the mission. These conditions affected battery performance and jeopardized the long-term mission. Increased loading on selected orbits has improved battery performance. Long term projections indicate steadily increasing temperatures for the remainder of the mission.

Predictive Service Life Tests for Roofing Membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, David M.; Cash, Carl G.; Davies, Arthur G.

2002-09-01

The average service life of roofing membranes used in low-slope applications on U.S. Army buildings is estimated to be considerably shorter than the industry-presumed 20-year design life, even when installers carefully adhere to the latest guide specifications. This problem is due in large part to market-driven product development cycles, which do not include time for long-term field testing. To reduce delivery costs, contractors may provide untested, interior membranes in place of ones proven satisfactory in long-term service. Federal procurement regulations require that roofing systems and components be selected according to desired properties and generic type, not brand name. The problem is that a material certified to have satisfactory properties at installation time will not necessarily retain those properties in service. The overall objective of this research is to develop a testing program that can be executed in a matter of weeks to adequately predict a membrane's long-term performance in service. This report details accelerated aging tests of 12 popular membrane materials in the laboratory, and describes outdoor experiment stations set up for long-term exposure tests of those same membranes. The laboratory results will later be correlated with the outdoor test results to develop performance models and predictive service life tests.

Creep behavior of bone cement: a method for time extrapolation using time-temperature equivalence.

PubMed

Morgan, R L; Farrar, D F; Rose, J; Forster, H; Morgan, I

2003-04-01

The clinical lifetime of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) bone cement is considerably longer than the time over which it is convenient to perform creep testing. Consequently, it is desirable to be able to predict the long term creep behavior of bone cement from the results of short term testing. A simple method is described for prediction of long term creep using the principle of time-temperature equivalence in polymers. The use of the method is illustrated using a commercial acrylic bone cement. A creep strain of approximately 0.6% is predicted after 400 days under a constant flexural stress of 2 MPa. The temperature range and stress levels over which it is appropriate to perform testing are described. Finally, the effects of physical aging on the accuracy of the method are discussed and creep data from aged cement are reported.

Conceptual Distinctiveness Supports Detailed Visual Long-Term Memory for Real-World Objects

PubMed Central

Konkle, Talia; Brady, Timothy F.; Alvarez, George A.; Oliva, Aude

2012-01-01

Humans have a massive capacity to store detailed information in visual long-term memory. The present studies explored the fidelity of these visual long-term memory representations and examined how conceptual and perceptual features of object categories support this capacity. Observers viewed 2,800 object images with a different number of exemplars presented from each category. At test, observers indicated which of 2 exemplars they had previously studied. Memory performance was high and remained quite high (82% accuracy) with 16 exemplars from a category in memory, demonstrating a large memory capacity for object exemplars. However, memory performance decreased as more exemplars were held in memory, implying systematic categorical interference. Object categories with conceptually distinctive exemplars showed less interference in memory as the number of exemplars increased. Interference in memory was not predicted by the perceptual distinctiveness of exemplars from an object category, though these perceptual measures predicted visual search rates for an object target among exemplars. These data provide evidence that observers’ capacity to remember visual information in long-term memory depends more on conceptual structure than perceptual distinctiveness. PMID:20677899

Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

PubMed

Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

2017-09-27

Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis trials: lessons learned from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis cohort.

PubMed

Dall'Era, Maria; Cisternas, Miriam G; Smilek, Dawn E; Straub, Laura; Houssiau, Frédéric A; Cervera, Ricard; Rovin, Brad H; Mackay, Meggan

2015-05-01

There is a need to determine which response measures in lupus nephritis trials are most predictive of good long-term renal function. We used data from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial to evaluate the performance of proteinuria, serum creatinine (Cr), and urinary red blood cells (RBCs) as predictors of good long-term renal outcome. Patients from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial with proteinuria, serum Cr, and urinary RBC measurements at 3, 6, or 12 months and with a minimum of 7 years of followup were included (n = 76). We assessed the ability of these clinical biomarkers at 3, 6, and 12 months after randomization to predict good long-term renal outcome (defined as a serum Cr value ≤1.0 mg/dl) at 7 years. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to assess parameter performance at these time points and to select the best cutoff for individual parameters. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the parameters alone and in combination. A proteinuria value of <0.8 gm/day at 12 months after randomization was the single best predictor of good long-term renal function (sensitivity 81% and specificity 78%). The addition of serum Cr to proteinuria as a composite predictor did not improve the performance of the outcome measure; addition of urinary RBCs as a predictor significantly decreased the sensitivity to 47%. This study demonstrates that the level of proteinuria at 12 months is the individual best predictor of long-term renal outcome in patients with lupus nephritis. Inclusion of urinary RBCs as part of a composite outcome measure actually undermined the predictive value of the trial data. We therefore suggest that urinary RBCs should not be included as a component of clinical trial response criteria in lupus nephritis. © 2015, American College of Rheumatology.

Cost analysis and facility reimbursement in the long-term health care industry.

PubMed Central

Ullmann, S G

1984-01-01

This article examines costs and develops a system of prospective reimbursement for the industry committed to long-term health care. Together with estimates of average cost functions--for purposes of determining those factors affecting the costs of long-term health care, the author examines in depth the cost effects of patient mix and facility quality. Policy implications are indicated. The article estimates cost savings and predicted improvements in facility performance resulting from adoption of a prospective reimbursement system. PMID:6427138

Memory processes of flight situation awareness: interactive roles of working memory capacity, long-term working memory, and expertise.

PubMed

Sohn, Young Woo; Doane, Stephanie M

2004-01-01

This research examined the role of working memory (WM) capacity and long-term working memory (LT-WM) in flight situation awareness (SA). We developed spatial and verbal measures of WM capacity and LT-WM skill and then determined the ability of these measures to predict pilot performance on SA tasks. Although both spatial measures of WM capacity and LT-WM skills were important predictors of SA performance, their importance varied as a function of pilot expertise. Spatial WM capacity was most predictive of SA performance for novices, whereas spatial LT-WM skill based on configurations of control flight elements (attitude and power) was most predictive for experts. Furthermore, evidence for an interactive role of WM and LT-WM mechanisms was indicated. Actual or potential applications of this research include cognitive analysis of pilot expertise and aviation training.

Long-term regulation in the cardiovascular system - Cornerstone in the development of a composite physiological model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, R. J.

1974-01-01

The present work discusses a model of the cardiovascular system and related subsystems capable of long-term simulations of the type desired for in-space hypogravic human physiological performance prediction. The discussion centers around the model of Guyton and modifications of it. In order to draw attention to the fluid handling capabilities of the model, one of several transfusion simulations performed is presented, namely, the isotonic saline transfusion simulation.

Acute and Chronic Stress: The Effects of Loss of Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-07-31

stressor affecting the health and well-being of the unemployed and their families. This study was designed to test how loss of control associated with...status: short-term ( unemployed for less than two months); long-term ( unemployed for longer than two months); and, employed controls. Perceptions of...the laboratory stressor resulting in performance deficits and helpless behavior. As predicted. compared to the other two groups. long-term unemployed

Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

Uniaxial creep property and viscoelastic-plastic modelling of ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yintang; Wu, Minger

2015-02-01

Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil has been widely used in spatial structures for its light weight and high transparency. This paper studies short- and long-term creep properties of ETFE foil. Two series of short-term creep and recovery tests were performed, in which residual strain was observed. A long-term creep test of ETFE foil was also conducted and lasted about 400 days. A viscoelastic-plastic model was then established to describe short-term creep and recovery behaviour of ETFE foil. This model contains a traditional generalised Kelvin part and an added steady-flow component to represent viscoelastic and viscoplastic behaviour, respectively. The model can fit tests' data well at three stresses and six temperatures. Additionally, time-temperature superposition was adopted to simulate long-term creep behaviour of ETFE foil. Horizontal shifting factors were determined by W.L.F. equation in which transition temperature was simulated by shifting factors. Using this equation, long-term creep behaviours at three temperatures were predicted. The results of the long-term creep test showed that a short-term creep test at identical temperatures was insufficient to predict additional creep behaviour, and the long-term creep test verified horizontal shifting factors which were derived from the time-temperature superposition.

Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

PubMed

Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

2012-11-01

The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p < 0.0001), methamphetamine use (19.3% vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001), and portal hypertension PAH (16.4% vs 5.1%, p < 0.0001) compared with the development cohort. The C-index of the model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Rating long-term care facilities on pressure ulcer development: importance of case-mix adjustment.

PubMed

Berlowitz, D R; Ash, A S; Brandeis, G H; Brand, H K; Halpern, J L; Moskowitz, M A

1996-03-15

To determine the importance of case-mix adjustment in interpreting differences in rates of pressure ulcer development in Department of Veterans Affairs long- term care facilities. A sample assembled from the Patient Assessment File, a Veterans Affairs administrative database, was used to derive predictors of pressure ulcer development; the resulting model was validated in a separate sample. Facility-level rates of pressure ulcer development, both unadjusted and adjusted for case mix using the predictive model, were compared. Department of Veterans Affairs long-term care facilities. The derivation sample consisted of 31 150 intermediate medicine and nursing home residents who were initially free of pressure ulcers and were institutionalized between October 1991 and April 1993. The validation sample consisted of 17 946 residents institutionalized from April 1993 to October 1993. Development of a stage 2 or greater pressure ulcer. 11 factors predicted pressure ulcer development. Validated performance properties of the resulting model were good. Model-predicted rates of pressure ulcer development at individual long-term care facilities varied from 1.9% to 6.3%, and observed rates ranged from 0% to 10.9%. Case-mix-adjusted rates and ranks of facilities differed considerably from unadjusted ratings. For example, among five facilities that were identified as high outliers on the basis of unadjusted rates, two remained as outliers after adjustment for case mix. Long-term care facilities differ in case mix. Adjustments for case mix result in different judgments about facility performance and should be used when facility incidence rates are compared.

Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boone, Spencer

2017-01-01

This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.

Tack Coat Performance and Materials Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

A good bond provided by a tack coat can improve performance of asphalt overlays. The objectives of this research were: (1) develop a method for testing the bond between pavement layers; (2) evaluate the bond performance and predict long-term performa...

Developmental Activities that Lead to Dropout and Investment in Sport

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wall, Michael; Cote, Jean

2007-01-01

Background: Studies suggest that expert performance in sport is the result of long-term engagement in a highly specialized form of training termed deliberate practice. The relationship between accumulated deliberate practice and performance predicts that those who begin deliberate practice at a young age accumulate more practice hours over time…

A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

PubMed Central

Tamirou, Farah; Lauwerys, Bernard R; Dall'Era, Maria; Mackay, Meggan; Rovin, Brad; Cervera, Ricard; Houssiau, Frédéric A

2015-01-01

Background Although an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a recent analysis performed on patients randomised in the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial, demonstrating that a target value of 0.8 g/day at month 12 optimised sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of good renal outcome. The objective of the current work is to validate this target in another LN study, namely the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial (MNT). Methods Long-term (at least 7 years) renal function data were available for 90 patients randomised in the MNT. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to test the performance of proteinuria measured within the 1st year as short-term predictor of long-term renal outcome. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results After 12 months of treatment, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day best predicted good renal outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 71% and 75%, respectively. The PPV was high (94%) but the NPV low (29%). Addition of the requirement of urine red blood cells ≤5/hpf as response criteria at month 12 reduced sensitivity from 71% to 41%. Conclusions In this cohort of mainly Caucasian patients suffering from a first episode of LN in most cases, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day at month 12 best predicts good outcome at 7 years and inclusion of haematuria in the set of criteria at month 12 undermines the sensitivity of early proteinuria decrease for the prediction of good outcome. The robustness of these conclusions stems from the very similar results obtained in two distinct LN cohorts. Trial registration number: NCT00204022. PMID:26629352

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring

PubMed Central

Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Keller, Joshua P.; Kaufman, Joel D.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. Objectives: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children’s Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). Results: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84–0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00–0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Conclusions: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction modeling approach for estimating long-term concentrations of PM2.5 in cohort studies before the 1999 implementation of widespread monitoring. Environ Health Perspect 125:38–46; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP131 PMID:27340825

Biological Networks for Predicting Chemical Hepatocarcinogenicity Using Gene Expression Data from Treated Mice and Relevance across Human and Rat Species

PubMed Central

Thomas, Reuben; Thomas, Russell S.; Auerbach, Scott S.; Portier, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Background Several groups have employed genomic data from subchronic chemical toxicity studies in rodents (90 days) to derive gene-centric predictors of chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity. Genes are annotated to belong to biological processes or molecular pathways that are mechanistically well understood and are described in public databases. Objectives To develop a molecular pathway-based prediction model of long term hepatocarcinogenicity using 90-day gene expression data and to evaluate the performance of this model with respect to both intra-species, dose-dependent and cross-species predictions. Methods Genome-wide hepatic mRNA expression was retrospectively measured in B6C3F1 mice following subchronic exposure to twenty-six (26) chemicals (10 were positive, 2 equivocal and 14 negative for liver tumors) previously studied by the US National Toxicology Program. Using these data, a pathway-based predictor model for long-term liver cancer risk was derived using random forests. The prediction model was independently validated on test sets associated with liver cancer risk obtained from mice, rats and humans. Results Using 5-fold cross validation, the developed prediction model had reasonable predictive performance with the area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) equal to 0.66. The developed prediction model was then used to extrapolate the results to data associated with rat and human liver cancer. The extrapolated model worked well for both extrapolated species (AUC value of 0.74 for rats and 0.91 for humans). The prediction models implied a balanced interplay between all pathway responses leading to carcinogenicity predictions. Conclusions Pathway-based prediction models estimated from sub-chronic data hold promise for predicting long-term carcinogenicity and also for its ability to extrapolate results across multiple species. PMID:23737943

Biological networks for predicting chemical hepatocarcinogenicity using gene expression data from treated mice and relevance across human and rat species.

PubMed

Thomas, Reuben; Thomas, Russell S; Auerbach, Scott S; Portier, Christopher J

2013-01-01

Several groups have employed genomic data from subchronic chemical toxicity studies in rodents (90 days) to derive gene-centric predictors of chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity. Genes are annotated to belong to biological processes or molecular pathways that are mechanistically well understood and are described in public databases. To develop a molecular pathway-based prediction model of long term hepatocarcinogenicity using 90-day gene expression data and to evaluate the performance of this model with respect to both intra-species, dose-dependent and cross-species predictions. Genome-wide hepatic mRNA expression was retrospectively measured in B6C3F1 mice following subchronic exposure to twenty-six (26) chemicals (10 were positive, 2 equivocal and 14 negative for liver tumors) previously studied by the US National Toxicology Program. Using these data, a pathway-based predictor model for long-term liver cancer risk was derived using random forests. The prediction model was independently validated on test sets associated with liver cancer risk obtained from mice, rats and humans. Using 5-fold cross validation, the developed prediction model had reasonable predictive performance with the area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) equal to 0.66. The developed prediction model was then used to extrapolate the results to data associated with rat and human liver cancer. The extrapolated model worked well for both extrapolated species (AUC value of 0.74 for rats and 0.91 for humans). The prediction models implied a balanced interplay between all pathway responses leading to carcinogenicity predictions. Pathway-based prediction models estimated from sub-chronic data hold promise for predicting long-term carcinogenicity and also for its ability to extrapolate results across multiple species.

Developing Local Oral Reading Fluency Cut Scores for Predicting High-Stakes Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grapin, Sally L.; Kranzler, John H.; Waldron, Nancy; Joyce-Beaulieu, Diana; Algina, James

2017-01-01

This study evaluated the classification accuracy of a second grade oral reading fluency curriculum-based measure (R-CBM) in predicting third grade state test performance. It also compared the long-term classification accuracy of local and publisher-recommended R-CBM cut scores. Participants were 266 students who were divided into a calibration…

Utilization of Integrated Assessment Modeling for determining geologic CO2 storage security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2017-12-01

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been extensively studied as a potential technology to mitigate atmospheric concentration of CO2. Multiple international research & development efforts, large-scale demonstration and commercial projects are helping advance the technology. One of the critical areas of active investigation is prediction of long-term CO2 storage security and risks. A quantitative methodology for predicting a storage site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. These predictions are challenging given that they require simulating CO2 and in-situ fluid movements as well as interactions through the primary storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, faults, etc.) and shallow resources such as groundwater aquifers. They need to take into account the inherent variability and uncertainties at geologic sites. This talk will provide an overview of an approach based on integrated assessment modeling (IAM) to predict long-term performance of a geologic storage site including, storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways and shallow groundwater aquifers. The approach utilizes reduced order models (ROMs) to capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. Applicability of the approach will be demonstrated through examples that are focused on key storage security questions such as what is the probability of leakage of CO2 from a storage reservoir? how does storage security vary for different geologic environments and operational conditions? how site parameter variability and uncertainties affect storage security, etc.

Tank System Integrated Model: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Schnell, A. R.; Moder, J. P.

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants, pressurization rate, and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning for future space exploration missions. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, mixing, and condensation on the tank wall. This TM also includes comparisons of TankSIM program predictions with the test data andexamples of multiphase mission calculations.

Long- and short-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: using novel exposure models.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Ridgway, Bill; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel D

2013-07-01

Many studies have reported associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, focused on either short-term (acute) or long-term (chronic) PM exposures. For chronic effects, the studied cohorts have rarely been representative of the population. We present a novel exposure model combining satellite aerosol optical depth and land-use data to investigate both the long- and short-term effects of PM2.5 exposures on population mortality in Massachusetts, United States, for the years 2000-2008. All deaths were geocoded. We performed two separate analyses: a time-series analysis (for short-term exposure) where counts in each geographic grid cell were regressed against cell-specific short-term PM2.5 exposure, temperature, socioeconomic data, lung cancer rates (as a surrogate for smoking), and a spline of time (to control for season and trends). In addition, for long-term exposure, we performed a relative incidence analysis using two long-term exposure metrics: regional 10 × 10 km PM2.5 predictions and local deviations from the cell average based on land use within 50 m of the residence. We tested whether these predicted the proportion of deaths from PM-related causes (cardiovascular and respiratory diseases). For short-term exposure, we found that for every 10-µg/m increase in PM 2.5 exposure there was a 2.8% increase in PM-related mortality (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-3.5). For the long-term exposure at the grid cell level, we found an odds ratio (OR) for every 10-µg/m increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure of 1.6 (CI = 1.5-1.8) for particle-related diseases. Local PM2.5 had an OR of 1.4 (CI = 1.3-1.5), which was independent of and additive to the grid cell effect. We have developed a novel PM2.5 exposure model based on remote sensing data to assess both short- and long-term human exposures. Our approach allows us to gain spatial resolution in acute effects and an assessment of long-term effects in the entire population rather than a selective sample from urban locations.

Long-Term Viscoelastic Response of E-glass/Bismaleimide Composite in Seawater Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yian, Zhao; Zhiying, Wang; Keey, Seah Leong; Boay, Chai Gin

2015-12-01

The effect of seawater absorption on the long-term viscoelastic response of E-glass/BMI composite is presented in this paper. The diffusion of seawater into the composite shows a two-stage behavior, dominated by Fickian diffusion initially and followed by polymeric relaxation. The Glass transition temperature (Tg) of the composite with seawater absorption is considerably lowered due to the plasticization effect. However the effect of water absorption at 50 °C is found to be reversible after drying process. The time-temperature superposition (TTS) was performed based on the results of Dynamic Mechanical Analysis to construct the master curve of storage modulus. The shift factors exhibit Arrhenius behavior when temperature is well below Tg and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT) like behavior when temperature gets close to glass transition region. As a result, a semi-empirical formulation is proposed to account for the seawater absorption effect in predicting long-term viscoelastic response of BMI composites based on temperature dependent storage modulus and TTS. The predicted master curves show that the degradation of storage modulus accelerates with both seawater exposure and increasing temperature. The proposed formulation can be applied to predict the long-term durability of any thermorheologically simple composite materials in seawater environment.

Children's Initial Sleep-Associated Changes in Motor Skill Are Unrelated to Long-Term Skill Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinke, Katharina; Wilhelm, Ines; Bayramoglu, Müge; Klein, Susanne; Born, Jan

2017-01-01

Sleep is considered to support the formation of skill memory. In juvenile but not adult song birds learning a tutor's song, a stronger initial deterioration of song performance over night-sleep predicts better song performance in the long run. This and similar observations have stimulated the view of sleep supporting skill formation during…

EOID System Model Validation, Metrics, and Synthetic Clutter Generation

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

Our long-term goal is to accurately predict the capability of the current generation of laser-based underwater imaging sensors to perform Electro ... Optic Identification (EOID) against relevant targets in a variety of realistic environmental conditions. The models will predict the impact of

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Feasibility of Using Neural Network Models to Accelerate the Testing of Mechanical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusaro, Robert L.

1998-01-01

Verification testing is an important aspect of the design process for mechanical mechanisms, and full-scale, full-length life testing is typically used to qualify any new component for use in space. However, as the required life specification is increased, full-length life tests become more costly and lengthen the development time. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, we theorized that neural network systems may be able to model the operation of a mechanical device. If so, the resulting neural network models could simulate long-term mechanical testing with data from a short-term test. This combination of computer modeling and short-term mechanical testing could then be used to verify the reliability of mechanical systems, thereby eliminating the costs associated with long-term testing. Neural network models could also enable designers to predict the performance of mechanisms at the conceptual design stage by entering the critical parameters as input and running the model to predict performance. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential of using neural networks to predict the performance and life of mechanical systems. To do this, we generated a neural network system to model wear obtained from three accelerated testing devices: 1) A pin-on-disk tribometer; 2) A line-contact rub-shoe tribometer; 3) A four-ball tribometer.

Simultaneous Thermal and Gamma Radiation Aging of Cable Polymers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fifield, Leonard S.; Liu, Shuaishuai; Bowler, Nicola

Polymers used in nuclear power plant electrical cable systems experience aging and degradation over time due to environmental stress including heat and gamma irradiation. Prediction of long-term cable performance has been based on results of short-term accelerated laboratory aging studies, but questions remain regarding the correlation of accelerated aging to long-term, in-plant aging. This work seeks to increase understanding of the combined effects of heat and radiation on cable polymer material aging toward addressing these questions.

Interlaboratory evaluation of Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans short-term and long-term sediment toxicity tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norberg-King, T. J.; Sibley, P.K.; Burton, G.A.; Ingersoll, C.G.; Kemble, N.E.; Ireland, S.; Mount, D.R.; Rowland, C.D.

2006-01-01

Methods for assessing the long-term toxicity of sediments to Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans can significantly enhance the capacity to assess sublethal effects of contaminated sediments through multiple endpoints. Sublethal tests allow us to begin to understand the relationship between short-term and long-term effects for toxic sediments. We present an interlaboratory evaluation with long-term and 10-d tests using control and contaminated sediments in which we assess whether proposed and existing performance criteria (test acceptability criteria [TAC]) could be achieved. Laboratories became familiar with newly developed, long-term protocols by testing two control sediments in phase 1. In phase 2, the 10-d and long-term tests were examined with several sediments. Laboratories met the TACs, but results varied depending on the test organism, test duration, and endpoints. For the long-term tests in phase 1, 66 to 100% of the laboratories consistently met the TACs for survival, growth, or reproduction using H. azteca, and 70 to 100% of the laboratories met the TACs for survival and growth, emergence, reproduction, and hatchability using C. tentans. In phase 2, fewer laboratories participated in long-term tests: 71 to 88% of the laboratories met the TAC for H. azteca, whereas 50 to 67% met the TAC for C. tentans. In the 10-d tests with H. azteca, and C. tentans, 82 and 88% of the laboratories met the TAC for survival, respectively, and 80% met the TAC for C. tentans growth. For the 10-d and long-term tests, laboratories predicted similar toxicity. Overall, the interlaboratory evaluation showed good precision of the methods, appropriate endpoints were incorporated into the test protocols, and tests effectively predicted the toxicity of sediments.

Can we "predict" long-term outcome for ambulatory transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in patients with chronic pain?

PubMed

Köke, Albère J; Smeets, Rob J E M; Perez, Roberto S; Kessels, Alphons; Winkens, Bjorn; van Kleef, Maarten; Patijn, Jacob

2015-03-01

Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance. A prospective study was performed to identify variables with potential predictive value for 2 outcome measures on long term (6 months); (1) continuation of TENS, and (2) a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. At baseline, a set of risk factors including pain-related variables, psychological factors, and disability was measured. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, higher patient's expectations, neuropathic pain, no severe pain (< 80 mm visual analogue scale [VAS]) were independently related to long-term continuation of TENS. For the outcome "minimally clinical important pain reduction," the multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that no multisited pain (> 2 pain locations) and intermittent pain were positively and independently associated with a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. The results showed that factors associated with a successful outcome in the long term are dependent on definition of successful outcome. © 2014 World Institute of Pain.

Stimulus-response learning in long-term cocaine users: acquired equivalence and probabilistic category learning.

PubMed

Vadhan, Nehal P; Myers, Catherine E; Rubin, Eric; Shohamy, Daphna; Foltin, Richard W; Gluck, Mark A

2008-01-11

The purpose of this study was to examine stimulus-response (S-R) learning in active cocaine users. Twenty-two cocaine-dependent participants (20 males and 2 females) and 21 non-drug using control participants (19 males and 2 females) who were similar in age and education were administered two computerized learning tasks. The Acquired Equivalence task initially requires learning of simple antecedent-consequent discriminations, but later requires generalization of this learning when the stimuli are presented in novel recombinations. The Weather Prediction task requires the prediction of a dichotomous outcome based on different stimuli combinations when the stimuli predict the outcome only probabilistically. On the Acquired Equivalence task, cocaine users made significantly more errors than control participants when required to learn new discriminations while maintaining previously learned discriminations, but performed similarly to controls when required to generalize this learning. No group differences were seen on the Weather Prediction task. Cocaine users' learning of stimulus discriminations under conflicting response demands was impaired, but their ability to generalize this learning once they achieved criterion was intact. This performance pattern is consistent with other laboratory studies of long-term cocaine users that demonstrated that established learning interfered with new learning on incremental learning tasks, relative to healthy controls, and may reflect altered dopamine transmission in the basal ganglia of long-term cocaine users.

Comparison of the fixed ratio and the Z-score of FEV1/FVC in the elderly population: a long-term mortality analysis from the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey.

PubMed

Oh, Dong Kyu; Baek, Seunghee; Lee, Sei Won; Lee, Jae Seung; Lee, Sang-Do; Oh, Yeon-Mok

2018-01-01

Despite the ongoing intense debate on the definition of airflow limitation by spirometry in the elderly population, there have only been few studies comparing the fixed ratio and the Z -score of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 )/forced vital capacity (FVC) in terms of long-term mortalities. In this study, we aimed to identify the proper method for accurately defining the airflow limitation in terms of long-term mortality prediction in the elderly population. Data were collected from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the US. Non-Hispanic Caucasians aged 65-80 years were included. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of both methods were plotted and compared for 10-year all-cause, respiratory, and COPD mortalities. Of 1,331 subjects, the mean age was 71.7 years and 805 (60.5%) were males. For the 10-year all-cause mortality, the area under the curve (AUC) of the fixed ratio was significantly greater than that of the Z -score of FEV 1 /FVC, but both showed poor prediction performance (0.633 vs 0.616, p <0.001). For the 10-year respiratory and COPD mortalities, both the fixed ratio and the Z -score of FEV 1 /FVC showed comparable prediction performance with greater AUCs (0.784 vs 0.778, p =0.160, and 0.896 vs 0.896, p =0.971, respectively). Interestingly, the conventional cutoff of 0.7 in the fixed ratio was consistently higher than the optimal for the 10-year all-cause, respiratory, and COPD mortalities (0.70 vs 0.69, 0.62, and 0.61, respectively), whereas that of -1.64 in the Z -score of FEV 1 /FVC was consistently lower than the optimal cutoff (-1.64 vs -1.31, -1.47, and -1.41, respectively). In the elderly population, both the fixed ratio and the Z -score of FEV 1 /FVC showed comparable prediction performance for the 10-year respiratory and COPD mortalities. However, the conventional cutoff of neither 0.70 in the fixed ratio nor -1.64 in the Z -score of FEV 1 /FVC was optimal for predicting the long-term mortalities.

Brain connectivity changes occurring following cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis predict long-term recovery.

PubMed

Mason, L; Peters, E; Williams, S C; Kumari, V

2017-01-17

Little is known about the psychobiological mechanisms of cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) and which specific processes are key in predicting favourable long-term outcomes. Following theoretical models of psychosis, this proof-of-concept study investigated whether the long-term recovery path of CBTp completers can be predicted by the neural changes in threat-based social affective processing that occur during CBTp. We followed up 22 participants who had undergone a social affective processing task during functional magnetic resonance imaging along with self-report and clinician-administered symptom measures, before and after receiving CBTp. Monthly ratings of psychotic and affective symptoms were obtained retrospectively across 8 years since receiving CBTp, plus self-reported recovery at final follow-up. We investigated whether these long-term outcomes were predicted by CBTp-led changes in functional connections with dorsal prefrontal cortical and amygdala during the processing of threatening and prosocial facial affect. Although long-term psychotic symptoms were predicted by changes in prefrontal connections during prosocial facial affective processing, long-term affective symptoms were predicted by threat-related amygdalo-inferior parietal lobule connectivity. Greater increases in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex connectivity with amygdala following CBTp also predicted higher subjective ratings of recovery at long-term follow-up. These findings show that reorganisation occurring at the neural level following psychological therapy can predict the subsequent recovery path of people with psychosis across 8 years. This novel methodology shows promise for further studies with larger sample size, which are needed to better examine the sensitivity of psychobiological processes, in comparison to existing clinical measures, in predicting long-term outcomes.

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Nawata, K

2018-05-01

Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

The long-term performance degradation of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator using silicon germanium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stapfer, G.; Truscello, V. C.

1976-01-01

The successful utilization of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) as the power source for spaceflight missions requires that the performance of such an RTG be predictable throughout the mission. Several mechanisms occur within the generator which tend to degrade the performance as a function of operating time. The impact which these mechanisms have on the available output power of an RTG depends primarily on such factors as time, temperature and self-limiting effects. The relative magnitudes, rates and temperature dependency of these various degradation mechanisms have been investigated separately by coupon experiments as well as 4-couple and 18-couple module experiments. This paper discusses the different individual mechanisms and summarizes their combined influence on the performance of an RTG. Also presented as part of the RTG long-term performance characteristics is the sensitivity of the available RTG output power to variations of the individual degradation mechanisms thus identifying the areas of greatest concern for a successful long-term mission.

Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

2015-12-01

From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study.

PubMed

Hamilton, C A; Miller, A; Casablanca, Y; Horowitz, N S; Rungruang, B; Krivak, T C; Richard, S D; Rodriguez, N; Birrer, M J; Backes, F J; Geller, M A; Quinn, M; Goodheart, M J; Mutch, D G; Kavanagh, J J; Maxwell, G L; Bookman, M A

2018-02-01

To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The analysis dataset included 3010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study

PubMed Central

Hamilton, C. A.; Miller, A.; Casablanca, Y.; Horowitz, N. S.; Rungruang, B.; Krivak, T. C.; Richard, S. D.; Rodriguez, N.; Birrer, M.J.; Backes, F.J.; Geller, M.A.; Quinn, M.; Goodheart, M.J.; Mutch, D.G.; Kavanagh, J.J.; Maxwell, G. L.; Bookman, M. A.

2018-01-01

Objective To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Methods Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The analysis dataset included 3,010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. Conclusions The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. PMID:29195926

Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Chen; Gupta, Vipul; Huang, Shenyan

The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and theirmore » long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.« less

Development of a Computational Framework for Big Data-Driven Prediction of Long-Term Bridge Performance and Traffic Flow

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-01

Consistent efforts with dense sensor deployment and data gathering processes for bridge big data have accumulated profound information regarding bridge performance, associated environments, and traffic flows. However, direct applications of bridge bi...

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient. PMID:28246527

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

PubMed

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

Analysis Methods for Post Occupancy Evaluation of Energy-Use in High Performance Buildings Using Short-Term Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vipul

2011-12-01

The green building movement has been an effective catalyst in reducing energy demands of buildings and a large number of 'green' certified buildings have been in operation for several years. Whether these buildings are actually performing as intended, and if not, identifying specific causes for this discrepancy falls into the general realm of post-occupancy evaluation (POE). POE involves evaluating building performance in terms of energy-use, indoor environmental quality, acoustics and water-use; the first aspect i.e. energy-use is addressed in this thesis. Normally, a full year or more of energy-use and weather data is required to determine the actual post-occupancy energy-use of buildings. In many cases, either measured building performance data is not available or the time and cost implications may not make it feasible to invest in monitoring the building for a whole year. Knowledge about the minimum amount of measured data needed to accurately capture the behavior of the building over the entire year can be immensely beneficial. This research identifies simple modeling techniques to determine best time of the year to begin in-situ monitoring of building energy-use, and the least amount of data required for generating acceptable long-term predictions. Four analysis procedures are studied. The short-term monitoring for long-term prediction (SMLP) approach and dry-bulb temperature analysis (DBTA) approach allow determining the best time and duration of the year for in-situ monitoring to be performed based only on the ambient temperature data of the location. Multivariate change-point (MCP) modeling uses simulated/monitored data to determine best monitoring period of the year. This is also used to validate the SMLP and DBTA approaches. The hybrid inverse modeling method-1 predicts energy-use by combining a short dataset of monitored internal loads with a year of utility-bills, and hybrid inverse method-2 predicts long term building performance using utility-bills only. The results obtained show that often less than three to four months of monitored data is adequate for estimating the annual building energy use, provided that the monitoring is initiated at the right time, and the seasonal as well as daily variations are adequately captured by the short dataset. The predictive accuracy of the short data-sets is found to be strongly influenced by the closeness of the dataset's mean temperature to the annual average temperature. The analysis methods studied would be very useful for energy professionals involved in POE.

Risks and Recommendations in Prenatally Detected De Novo Balanced Chromosomal Rearrangements from Assessment of Long-Term Outcomes.

PubMed

Halgren, Christina; Nielsen, Nete M; Nazaryan-Petersen, Lusine; Silahtaroglu, Asli; Collins, Ryan L; Lowther, Chelsea; Kjaergaard, Susanne; Frisch, Morten; Kirchhoff, Maria; Brøndum-Nielsen, Karen; Lind-Thomsen, Allan; Mang, Yuan; El-Schich, Zahra; Boring, Claire A; Mehrjouy, Mana M; Jensen, Peter K A; Fagerberg, Christina; Krogh, Lotte N; Hansen, Jan; Bryndorf, Thue; Hansen, Claus; Talkowski, Michael E; Bak, Mads; Tommerup, Niels; Bache, Iben

2018-06-07

The 6%-9% risk of an untoward outcome previously established by Warburton for prenatally detected de novo balanced chromosomal rearrangements (BCRs) does not account for long-term morbidity. We performed long-term follow-up (mean 17 years) of a registry-based nationwide cohort of 41 individuals carrying a prenatally detected de novo BCR with normal first trimester screening/ultrasound scan. We observed a significantly higher frequency of neurodevelopmental and/or neuropsychiatric disorders than in a matched control group (19.5% versus 8.3%, p = 0.04), which was increased to 26.8% upon clinical follow-up. Chromosomal microarray of 32 carriers revealed no pathogenic imbalances, illustrating a low prognostic value when fetal ultrasound scan is normal. In contrast, mate-pair sequencing revealed disrupted genes (ARID1B, NPAS3, CELF4), regulatory domains of known developmental genes (ZEB2, HOXC), and complex BCRs associated with adverse outcomes. Seven unmappable autosomal-autosomal BCRs with breakpoints involving pericentromeric/heterochromatic regions may represent a low-risk group. We performed independent phenotype-aware and blinded interpretation, which accurately predicted benign outcomes (specificity = 100%) but demonstrated relatively low sensitivity for prediction of the clinical outcome in affected carriers (sensitivity = 45%-55%). This sensitivity emphasizes the challenges associated with prenatal risk prediction for long-term morbidity in the absence of phenotypic data given the still immature annotation of the morbidity genome and poorly understood long-range regulatory mechanisms. In conclusion, we upwardly revise the previous estimates of Warburton to a morbidity risk of 27% and recommend sequencing of the chromosomal breakpoints as the first-tier diagnostic test in pregnancies with a de novo BCR. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of physical aging at elevated temperatures on the viscoelastic creep on IM7/K3B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Feldman, Mark

1994-01-01

Physical aging at elevated temperature of the advanced composite IM7/K3B was investigated through the use of creep compliance tests. Testing consisted of short term isothermal, creep/recovery with the creep segments performed at constant load. The matrix dominated transverse tensile and in-plane shear behavior were measured at temperatures ranging from 200 to 230 C. Through the use of time based shifting procedures, the aging shift factors, shift rates and momentary master curve parameters were found at each temperature. These material parameters were used as input to a predictive methodology, which was based upon effective time theory and linear viscoelasticity combined with classical lamination theory. Long term creep compliance test data was compared to predictions to verify the method. The model was then used to predict the long term creep behavior for several general laminates.

Looking good or doing good? Motivations for organisational citizenship behaviour in Turkish versus South Korean collectivists.

PubMed

Alabak, Merve; Peker, Müjde; Booth, Robert W

2016-06-01

The purpose of this article is to explore potential motivations to perform organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) in collectivistic Turkish and South Korean societies. Although collectivism has been proposed as a predictor of OCB, previous research has not fully explored the possibility that collectivistic individuals' OCB may result from their self-oriented motives (i.e. social desirability concerns) or their future-oriented motives (i.e. long-term orientation concerns). We predicted that OCB stems from social desirability concerns among Turkish collectivists, meaning it is used for maintaining a positive image within the organisation. However, for South Korean collectivists, we predicted that OCB stems from their long-term orientation concerns, meaning it is used to make the organisation better. The results were in line with our predictions, and the findings are discussed in terms of their implications for firms in collectivistic societies. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Predicting photoyellowing behaviour of mechanical pulp containing papers

Treesearch

Umesh P. Agarwal

2005-01-01

It is well known that paper produced from mechanical-pulp-containing fiber furnish yellows upon exposure to light. Although the accelerated light-aging test method has been used to compare papers and predict long term performance, the reliability of the light-aging method has been questioned. Therefore, a method that can correctly predict a paper’s light stability is...

Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

2017-02-01

UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

2017-09-01

Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Approximating Long-Term Statistics Early in the Global Precipitation Measurement Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.

2017-01-01

Long-term precipitation records are vital to many applications, especially the study of extreme events. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has served this need, but TRMMs successor mission, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), does not yet provide a long-term record. Quantile mapping, the conversion of values across paired empirical distributions, offers a simple, established means to approximate such long-term statistics, but only within appropriately defined domains. This method was applied to a case study in Central America, demonstrating that quantile mapping between TRMM and GPM data maintains the performance of a real-time landslide model. Use of quantile mapping could bring the benefits of the latest satellite-based precipitation dataset to existing user communities such as those for hazard assessment, crop forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and disease tracking.

Levels of mania and cognitive performance two years after ECT in patients with bipolar I disorder - results from a follow-up study.

PubMed

Haghighi, Mohammad; Barikani, Reza; Jahangard, Leila; Ahmadpanah, Mohammad; Bajoghli, Hafez; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2016-08-01

There is limited evidence on the long-term outcomes for patients with bipolar I disorder (BP-I-D) and treated with ECT. Therefore, we asked whether mania scores and cognitive performance at the end of ECT treatment (baseline/BL) predicted mania scores, cognitive performance, recurrence, treatment adherence, and mood (depression; hypomania) two years later (follow-up/FU). 38 patients with BP-I-D undergoing ECT at baseline were followed up two years later. A brief psychiatric and cognitive assessment (Mini Mental State Examination; short-term verbal memory test) was performed; patients completed questionnaires covering recurrence, treatment adherence, and mood (depression; hypomania). High cognitive performance at BL predicted high cognitive performance at FU; low mania scores at BL predicted low mania scores at FU. By FU, cognitive performance had increased and mania scores decreased. Mania scores and cognitive performance at BL did not predict recurrence, or adherence to medication, or mood (depression; hypomania). The pattern of results suggests that after two years of successful treatment of acute mania with ECT, cognitive impairment, measured by MMSE and a short-term verbal memory test, is not impaired and mood symptom recurrence seems to be improved. Mania scores and cognitive performance at the end of ECT treatment predicted neither mood (depression; hypomania), nor recurrence, or adherence to medication two years later. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, Richard P.; Stoner, Glenn E.; Swanson, Robert E.

1988-01-01

The general goals of the research program are to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Use long short-term memory to enhance Internet of Things for combined sewer overflow monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Duo; Lindholm, Geir; Ratnaweera, Harsha

2018-01-01

Combined sewer overflow causes severe water pollution, urban flooding and reduced treatment plant efficiency. Understanding the behavior of CSO structures is vital for urban flooding prevention and overflow control. Neural networks have been extensively applied in water resource related fields. In this study, we collect data from an Internet of Things monitoring CSO structure and build different neural network models for simulating and predicting the water level of the CSO structure. Through a comparison of four different neural networks, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), wavelet neural network (WNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), the LSTM and GRU present superior capabilities for multi-step-ahead time series prediction. Furthermore, GRU achieves prediction performances similar to LSTM with a quicker learning curve.

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2011-10-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic timescales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models be validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducingmore » the duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year-long PUF experiment was conducted with the Subsurface Transport Over Reactive Multiphases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year-long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 day) based on B release for low-activity waste glass LAWA44. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by four orders of magnitude) and suggests that the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M; Bacon, Diana

2011-01-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic time-scales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models are validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducing themore » duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench-scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 d) base on B release. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by 4 orders of magnitude) and suggest the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Neural activity in the hippocampus predicts individual visual short-term memory capacity.

PubMed

von Allmen, David Yoh; Wurmitzer, Karoline; Martin, Ernst; Klaver, Peter

2013-07-01

Although the hippocampus had been traditionally thought to be exclusively involved in long-term memory, recent studies raised controversial explanations why hippocampal activity emerged during short-term memory tasks. For example, it has been argued that long-term memory processes might contribute to performance within a short-term memory paradigm when memory capacity has been exceeded. It is still unclear, though, whether neural activity in the hippocampus predicts visual short-term memory (VSTM) performance. To investigate this question, we measured BOLD activity in 21 healthy adults (age range 19-27 yr, nine males) while they performed a match-to-sample task requiring processing of object-location associations (delay period  =  900 ms; set size conditions 1, 2, 4, and 6). Based on individual memory capacity (estimated by Cowan's K-formula), two performance groups were formed (high and low performers). Within whole brain analyses, we found a robust main effect of "set size" in the posterior parietal cortex (PPC). In line with a "set size × group" interaction in the hippocampus, a subsequent Finite Impulse Response (FIR) analysis revealed divergent hippocampal activation patterns between performance groups: Low performers (mean capacity  =  3.63) elicited increased neural activity at set size two, followed by a drop in activity at set sizes four and six, whereas high performers (mean capacity  =  5.19) showed an incremental activity increase with larger set size (maximal activation at set size six). Our data demonstrated that performance-related neural activity in the hippocampus emerged below capacity limit. In conclusion, we suggest that hippocampal activity reflected successful processing of object-location associations in VSTM. Neural activity in the PPC might have been involved in attentional updating. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design.

PubMed

Ai, A L; Ladd, K L; Peterson, C; Cook, C A; Shearer, M; Koenig, H G

2010-12-01

despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. MPLICATIONS: the influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion-health relations.

Advanced techniques for determining long term compatibility of materials with propellants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, R. L.; Stebbins, J. P.; Smith, A. W.; Pullen, K. E.

1973-01-01

A method for the prediction of propellant-material compatibility for periods of time up to ten years is presented. Advanced sensitive measurement techniques used in the prediction method are described. These include: neutron activation analysis, radioactive tracer technique, and atomic absorption spectroscopy with a graphite tube furnace sampler. The results of laboratory tests performed to verify the prediction method are presented.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

A probabilistic approach to photovoltaic generator performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallat, M. A.; Rahman, S.

1986-09-01

A method for predicting the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance is described. The equations for cell model formulation are provided. Use of the statistical model for characterizing the insolation level is discussed. The insolation data is fitted to appropriate probability distribution functions (Weibull, beta, normal). The probability distribution functions are utilized to evaluate the capacity factors of PV panels or arrays. An example is presented revealing the applicability of the procedure.

The influence of speed abilities and technical skills in early adolescence on adult success in soccer: A long-term prospective analysis using ANOVA and SEM approaches

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Several talent development programs in youth soccer have implemented motor diagnostics measuring performance factors. However, the predictive value of such tests for adult success is a controversial topic in talent research. This prospective cohort study evaluated the long-term predictive value of 1) motor tests and 2) players’ speed abilities (SA) and technical skills (TS) in early adolescence. The sample consisted of 14,178 U12 players from the German talent development program. Five tests (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) were conducted and players’ height, weight as well as relative age were assessed at nationwide diagnostics between 2004 and 2006. In the 2014/15 season, the players were then categorized as professional (n = 89), semi-professional (n = 913), or non-professional players (n = 13,176), indicating their adult performance level (APL). The motor tests’ prognostic relevance was determined using ANOVAs. Players’ future success was predicted by a logistic regression threshold model. This structural equation model comprised a measurement model with the motor tests and two correlated latent factors, SA and TS, with simultaneous consideration for the manifest covariates height, weight and relative age. Each motor predictor and anthropometric characteristic discriminated significantly between the APL (p < .001; η2 ≤ .02). The threshold model significantly predicted the APL (R2 = 24.8%), and in early adolescence the factor TS (p < .001) seems to have a stronger effect on adult performance than SA (p < .05). Both approaches (ANOVA, SEM) verified the diagnostics’ predictive validity over a long-term period (≈ 9 years). However, because of the limited effect sizes, the motor tests’ prognostic relevance remains ambiguous. A challenge for future research lies in the integration of different (e.g., person-oriented or multilevel) multivariate approaches that expand beyond the “traditional” topic of single tests’ predictive validity and toward more theoretically founded issues. PMID:28806410

Short and long-term effects of sham-controlled prefrontal EEG-neurofeedback training in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Engelbregt, H J; Keeser, D; van Eijk, L; Suiker, E M; Eichhorn, D; Karch, S; Deijen, J B; Pogarell, O

2016-04-01

In this study we evaluated long-term effects of frontal beta EEG-neurofeedback training (E-NFT) on healthy subjects. We hypothesized that E-NFT can change frontal beta activity in the long-term and that changes in frontal beta EEG activity are accompanied by altered cognitive performance. 25 healthy subjects were included and randomly assigned to active or sham E-NFT. On average the subjects underwent 15 E-NFT training sessions with a training duration of 45 min. Resting-state EEG was recorded prior to E-NFT training (t1) and in a 3-year follow-up (t3). Compared to sham E-NFT, which was used for the control group, real E-NFT increased beta activity in a predictable way. This increase was maintained over a period of three years post training. However, E-NFT did not result in significantly improved cognitive performance. Based on our results, we conclude that EEG-NFT can selectively modify EEG beta activity both in short and long-term. This is a sham controlled EEG neurofeedback study demonstrating long-term effects in resting state EEG. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Lifetimes of Nuclear Waste Containers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Fraser

2014-03-01

As for many aspects of the disposal of nuclear waste, the greatest challenge we have in the study of container materials is the prediction of the long-term performance over periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Various methods have been used for predicting the lifetime of containers for the disposal of high-level waste or spent fuel in deep geological repositories. Both mechanical and corrosion-related failure mechanisms need to be considered, although until recently the interactions of mechanical and corrosion degradation modes have not been considered in detail. Failure from mechanical degradation modes has tended to be treated through suitable container design. In comparison, the inevitable loss of container integrity due to corrosion has been treated by developing specific corrosion models. The most important aspect, however, is to be able to justify the long-term predictions by demonstrating a mechanistic understanding of the various degradation modes.

iTREE: Long-term variability of tree growth in a changing environment - identifying physiological mechanisms using stable C and O isotopes in tree rings.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegwolf, R. T. W.; Buchmann, N.; Frank, D.; Joos, F.; Kahmen, A.; Treydte, K.; Leuenberger, M.; Saurer, M.

2012-04-01

Trees play are a critical role in the carbon cycle - their photosynthetic assimilation is one of the largest terrestrial carbon fluxes and their standing biomass represents the largest carbon pool of the terrestrial biosphere. Understanding how tree physiology and growth respond to long-term environmental change is pivotal to predict the magnitude and direction of the terrestrial carbon sink. iTREE is an interdisciplinary research framework to capitalize on synergies among leading dendroclimatologists, plant physiologists, isotope specialists, and global carbon cycle modelers with the objectives of reducing uncertainties related to tree/forest growth in the context of changing natural environments. Cross-cutting themes in our project are tree rings, stable isotopes, and mechanistic modelling. We will (i) establish a European network of tree-ring based isotope time-series to retrodict interannual to long-term tree physiological changes, (ii) conduct laboratory and field experiments to adapt a mechanistic isotope model to derive plant physiological variables from tree-ring isotopes, (iii) implement this model into a dynamic global vegetation model, and perform subsequent model-data validation exercises to refine model representation of plant physiological processes and (iv) attribute long-term variation in tree growth to plant physiological and environmental drivers, and identify how our refined knowledge revises predictions of the coupled carbon-cycle climate system. We will contribute to i) advanced quantifications of long-term variation in tree growth across Central Europe, ii) novel long-term information on key physiological processes that underlie variations in tree growth, and iii) improved carbon cycle models that can be employed to revise predictions of the coupled carbon-cycle climate system. Hence iTREE will significantly contribute towards a seamless understanding of the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to long-term environmental change, and ultimately help reduce uncertainties of the magnitude and direction of the past and future terrestrial carbon sink.

Report on Understanding and Predicting Effects of Thermal Aging on Microstructure and Tensile Properties of Grade 91 Steel for Structural Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Meimei; Natesan, K.; Chen, Weiying

This report provides an update on understanding and predicting the effects of long-term thermal aging on microstructure and tensile properties of G91 to corroborate the ASME Code rules in strength reduction due to elevated temperature service. The research is to support the design and long-term operation of G91 structural components in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). The report is a Level 2 deliverable in FY17 (M2AT-17AN1602017), under the Work Package AT-17AN160201, “SFR Materials Testing” performed by the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies Program.

A multiscale model for predicting the viscoelastic properties of asphalt concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Cucalon, Lorena; Rahmani, Eisa; Little, Dallas N.; Allen, David H.

2016-08-01

It is well known that the accurate prediction of long term performance of asphalt concrete pavement requires modeling to account for viscoelasticity within the mastic. However, accounting for viscoelasticity can be costly when the material properties are measured at the scale of asphalt concrete. This is due to the fact that the material testing protocols must be performed recursively for each mixture considered for use in the final design.

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, R. P.; Stoner, G. E.; Swanson, R. E.

1989-01-01

A multifaceted research program on the performance of advanced light metallic alloys in aggressive aerospace environments, and associated environmental failure mechanisms was initiated. The general goal is to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Predicting isoproturon long-term mineralization from short-term experiment: Can this be a suitable approach?

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Dörfler, Ulrike; Jiang, Xin; Schroll, Reiner

2016-02-01

A worldwide used pesticide - isoproturon (IPU) - was selected to test whether short-term experiments can be used to predict long-term mineralization of IPU in soil. IPU-mineralization was measured for 39 and 265 days in four different agricultural soils with a low mineralization dynamic. Additionally, in one soil IPU dissipation, formation and dissipation of metabolites, formation of non-extractable residues (NER) and (14)C-microbial biomass from (14)C-IPU were monitored for 39 and 265 days. The data from short-term and long-term experiments were used for model fitting. The long-term dynamics of IPU mineralization were considerably overestimated by the short-term experiments in two soils with neutral pH, while in two other soils with low pH and lower mineralization, the long-term mineralization of IPU could be sufficiently predicted. Additional investigations in one of the soils with neutral pH showed that dissipation of IPU and metabolites could be correctly predicted by the short-term experiment. However, the formation of NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were remarkably overestimated by the short-term experiment. Further, it could be shown that the released NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were the main contributors of (14)CO2 formation at later incubation stages. Taken together, our results indicate that in soils with neutral pH short-term experiments were inadequate to predict the long-term mineralization of IPU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

PubMed

Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

2015-03-17

Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

Gill Na+,K+-ATPase of Atlantic salmon smolts in freshwater is not a predictor of long-term growth in seawater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2012-01-01

Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity is a widely used measure of osmoregulatory preparedness in salmonid smolts. The degree to which this measure may predict long term performance is uncertain. In order to assess the relationship of this enzyme to long term growth and ion homeostasis, a cohort of Atlantic salmon hatchery smolts was used in a controlled environment with no salinity perturbations. In May 2006, gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity from 940 individually PIT tagged, Penobscot River smolts (USFWS, Green Lake National Fish Hatchery, Maine, United States) was measured immediately prior to isothermal transfer from freshwater to 32 ppt seawater. From the observed range of activities, individuals were classified as having “low”, “middle”, or “high” enzyme activity levels. Individual size (fork length and mass) was recorded on days 0, 1, 3, and 14 and monthly for four months. Growth rates over four time periods were calculated for individual fish maintained until the end of the experiment. Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activities were also measured from a subset of sampled fish. All groups effectively osmoregulated as evidenced by minor perturbations in plasma osmolyte levels. Apart from initial weight loss on transfer, fish grew throughout the experiment, however, there were no differences (fish size, growth rate, and gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity in seawater) among groups with initially different gill Na+,K+-ATPase activities (prior to seawater entry). While gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity may be predictive of performance during the acute phase of acclimation (first few days), typical variation in this enzyme, expressed in freshwater at the peak of smolting, does not appear to be predictive of long-term growth in seawater.

When Paths Diverge: "Errors of Prediction" From Preschool Test Scores to Later Cognitive and Academic Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dale, P. S.; Mills, P. E.; Cole, K. N.; Jenkins, J. R.

2004-01-01

Long-term follow-up information on children who have participated in early childhood special education (ECSE) has seldom been available. In the present study, the cognitive and academic performance of 171 thirteen-year-old graduates of 2 ECSE curricula is examined. Although preschool cognitive measures continued to predict later performance…

Accelerated aging of concrete : a literature review

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-01

This report provides a review of the literature on accelerated aging of concrete. It was undertaken, as part of a research project : on predicting the long-term environmental performance of Portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements containing coal fly...

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory.

PubMed

Bao, Wei; Yue, Jun; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day's closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance.

Reconciling change blindness with long-term memory for objects.

PubMed

Wood, Katherine; Simons, Daniel J

2017-02-01

How can we reconcile remarkably precise long-term memory for thousands of images with failures to detect changes to similar images? We explored whether people can use detailed, long-term memory to improve change detection performance. Subjects studied a set of images of objects and then performed recognition and change detection tasks with those images. Recognition memory performance exceeded change detection performance, even when a single familiar object in the postchange display consistently indicated the change location. In fact, participants were no better when a familiar object predicted the change location than when the displays consisted of unfamiliar objects. When given an explicit strategy to search for a familiar object as a way to improve performance on the change detection task, they performed no better than in a 6-alternative recognition memory task. Subjects only benefited from the presence of familiar objects in the change detection task when they had more time to view the prechange array before it switched. Once the cost to using the change detection information decreased, subjects made use of it in conjunction with memory to boost performance on the familiar-item change detection task. This suggests that even useful information will go unused if it is sufficiently difficult to extract.

A new experimental method for the accelerated characterization of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.; Morris, D. H.; Yeow, Y. T.

1978-01-01

A method which permits the prediction of long-term properties of graphite/epoxy laminates on the basis of short-term (15 min) laboratory tests is described. Demonstration of delayed viscoelastic fracture in one laminate configuration, and data on the time and temperature response of a matrix-dominated unidirectional laminate contributed to a characterization of the viscoelastic process in the graphite/epoxy composites. Master curves from short-term tests of certain laminate configurations can be employed to generate long-term master curves. In addition, analytical predictions from short-term results can be used to predict long-term (25-hour) laminate properties.

Segmented-memory recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Chen, Jinmiao; Chaudhari, Narendra S

2009-08-01

Conventional recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have difficulties in learning long-term dependencies. To tackle this problem, we propose an architecture called segmented-memory recurrent neural network (SMRNN). A symbolic sequence is broken into segments and then presented as inputs to the SMRNN one symbol per cycle. The SMRNN uses separate internal states to store symbol-level context, as well as segment-level context. The symbol-level context is updated for each symbol presented for input. The segment-level context is updated after each segment. The SMRNN is trained using an extended real-time recurrent learning algorithm. We test the performance of SMRNN on the information latching problem, the "two-sequence problem" and the problem of protein secondary structure (PSS) prediction. Our implementation results indicate that SMRNN performs better on long-term dependency problems than conventional RNNs. Besides, we also theoretically analyze how the segmented memory of SMRNN helps learning long-term temporal dependencies and study the impact of the segment length.

Four Major South Korea's Rivers Using Deep Learning Models.

PubMed

Lee, Sangmok; Lee, Donghyun

2018-06-24

Harmful algal blooms are an annual phenomenon that cause environmental damage, economic losses, and disease outbreaks. A fundamental solution to this problem is still lacking, thus, the best option for counteracting the effects of algal blooms is to improve advance warnings (predictions). However, existing physical prediction models have difficulties setting a clear coefficient indicating the relationship between each factor when predicting algal blooms, and many variable data sources are required for the analysis. These limitations are accompanied by high time and economic costs. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and deep learning methods have become increasingly common in scientific research; attempts to apply the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to environmental research problems are increasing because the LSTM model exhibits good performance for time-series data prediction. However, few studies have applied deep learning models or LSTM to algal bloom prediction, especially in South Korea, where algal blooms occur annually. Therefore, we employed the LSTM model for algal bloom prediction in four major rivers of South Korea. We conducted short-term (one week) predictions by employing regression analysis and deep learning techniques on a newly constructed water quality and quantity dataset drawn from 16 dammed pools on the rivers. Three deep learning models (multilayer perceptron, MLP; recurrent neural network, RNN; and long short-term memory, LSTM) were used to predict chlorophyll-a, a recognized proxy for algal activity. The results were compared to those from OLS (ordinary least square) regression analysis and actual data based on the root mean square error (RSME). The LSTM model showed the highest prediction rate for harmful algal blooms and all deep learning models out-performed the OLS regression analysis. Our results reveal the potential for predicting algal blooms using LSTM and deep learning.

Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

PubMed

Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

2017-06-01

Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

Anticipatory eye movements and long-term memory in early infancy.

PubMed

Wong-Kee-You, Audrey M B; Adler, Scott A

2016-11-01

Advances in our understanding of long-term memory in early infancy have been made possible by studies that have used the Rovee-Collier's mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm and its variants. One function that has been attributed to long-term memory is the formation of expectations (Rovee-Collier & Hayne, 1987); consequently, a long-term memory representation should be established during expectation formation. To examine this prediction and potentially open the door on a new paradigm for exploring infants' long-term memory, using the Visual Expectation Paradigm (Haith, Hazan, & Goodman, 1988), 3-month-old infants were trained to form an expectation for predictable color and spatial information of picture events and emit anticipatory eye movements to those events. One day later, infants' anticipatory eye movements decreased in number relative to the end of training when the predictable colors were changed but not when the spatial location of the predictable color events was changed. These findings confirm that information encoded during expectation formation are stored in long-term memory, as hypothesized by Rovee-Collier and colleagues. Further, this research suggests that eye movements are potentially viable measures of long-term memory in infancy, providing confirmatory evidence for early mnemonic processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

PubMed

Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

2018-05-01

Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

PubMed

Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

2016-07-01

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design

PubMed Central

Ai, A. L.; Ladd, K. L.; Peterson, C.; Cook, C. A.; Shearer, M.; Koenig, H. G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. Design and Methods: Analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. Results: Predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. Implications: The influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion–health relations. PMID:20634280

Long-term prognostic value of a comprehensive assessment of cardiac magnetic resonance indexes after an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Merlos, Pilar; López-Lereu, Maria P; Monmeneu, Jose V; Sanchis, Juan; Núñez, Julio; Bonanad, Clara; Valero, Ernesto; Miñana, Gema; Chaustre, Fabián; Gómez, Cristina; Oltra, Ricardo; Palacios, Lorena; Bosch, Maria J; Navarro, Vicente; Llácer, Angel; Chorro, Francisco J; Bodí, Vicente

2013-08-01

A variety of cardiac magnetic resonance indexes predict mid-term prognosis in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. The extent of transmural necrosis permits simple and accurate prediction of systolic recovery. However, its long-term prognostic value beyond a comprehensive clinical and cardiac magnetic resonance evaluation is unknown. We hypothesized that a simple semiquantitative assessment of the extent of transmural necrosis is the best resonance index to predict long-term outcome soon after a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. One week after a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction we carried out a comprehensive quantification of several resonance parameters in 206 consecutive patients. A semiquantitative assessment (altered number of segments in the 17-segment model) of edema, baseline and post-dobutamine wall motion abnormalities, first pass perfusion, microvascular obstruction, and the extent of transmural necrosis was also performed. During follow-up (median 51 months), 29 patients suffered a major adverse cardiac event (8 cardiac deaths, 11 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, and 10 readmissions for heart failure). Major cardiac events were associated with more severely altered quantitative and semiquantitative resonance indexes. After a comprehensive multivariate adjustment, the extent of transmural necrosis was the only resonance index independently related to the major cardiac event rate (hazard ratio=1.34 [1.19-1.51] per each additional segment displaying>50% transmural necrosis, P<.001). A simple and non-time consuming semiquantitative analysis of the extent of transmural necrosis is the most powerful cardiac magnetic resonance index to predict long-term outcome soon after a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A decision-support tool to predict spray deposition of insecticides in commercial potato fields and its implications for their performance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In conventional and most IPM programs, application of insecticides continues to be the most important responsive pest control tactic. For both immediate and long-term optimization and sustainability of insecticide applications, it is paramount to study the factors affecting the performance of insect...

Economic Evaluation of Observatory Solar-Energy System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Long-term economic performance of a commercial solar-energy system was analyzed and used to predict economic performance at four additional sites. Analysis described in report was done to demonstrate viability of design over a broad range of environmental/economic conditions. Topics covered are system description, study approach, economic analysis and system optimization.

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccallum, J.; Thomas, R. E.

1971-01-01

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Exploring the performance of the SEDD model to predict sediment yield in eucalyptus plantations. Long-term results from an experimental catchment in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porto, P.; Cogliandro, V.; Callegari, G.

2018-01-01

In this paper, long-term sediment yield data, collected in a small (1.38 ha) Calabrian catchment (W2), reafforested with eucalyptus trees (Eucalyptus occidentalis Engl.) are used to validate the performance of the SEdiment Delivery Distributed Model (SEDD) in areas with high erosion rates. At first step, the SEDD model was calibrated using field data collected in previous field campaigns undertaken during the period 1978-1994. This first phase allowed the model calibration parameter β to be calculated using direct measurements of rainfall, runoff, and sediment output. The model was then validated in its calibrated form for an independent period (2006-2016) for which new measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment output are also available. The analysis, carried out at event and annual scale showed good agreement between measured and predicted values of sediment yield and suggested that the SEDD model can be seen as an appropriate means of evaluating erosion risk associated with manmade plantations in marginal areas. Further work is however required to test the performance of the SEDD model as a prediction tool in different geomorphic contexts.

Replicating annual North Atlantic hurricane activity 1878-2012 from environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, Mark A.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Lea, Adam S. R.

2017-06-01

Statistical models can replicate annual North Atlantic hurricane activity from large-scale environmental field data for August and September, the months of peak hurricane activity. We assess how well the six environmental fields used most often in contemporary statistical modeling of seasonal hurricane activity replicate North Atlantic hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) over the 135 year period from 1878 to 2012. We find that these fields replicate historical hurricane activity surprisingly well, showing that contemporary statistical models and their seasonal physical links have long-term robustness. We find that August-September zonal trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic is the environmental field which individually replicates long-term hurricane activity the best and that trade wind speed combined with the difference in sea surface temperature between the tropical Atlantic and the tropical mean is the best multi-predictor model. Comparing the performance of the best single-predictor and best multi-predictor models shows that they exhibit little difference in hindcast skill for predicting long-term ACE but that the best multipredictor model offers improved skill for predicting long-term hurricane numbers. We examine whether replicated real-time prediction skill 1983-2012 increases as the model training period lengthens and find evidence that this happens slowly. We identify a dropout in hurricane replication centered on the 1940s and show that this is likely due to a decrease in data quality which affects all data sets but Atlantic sea surface temperatures in particular. Finally, we offer insights on the implications of our findings for seasonal hurricane prediction.

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

PubMed

Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

2017-05-18

With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively recommend suitable events or services to the user.

Cyclic fatigue and fracture in pyrolytic carbon-coated graphite mechanical heart-valve prostheses: role of small cracks in life prediction.

PubMed

Dauskardt, R H; Ritchie, R O; Takemoto, J K; Brendzel, A M

1994-07-01

A fracture-mechanics based study has performed to characterize the fracture toughness and rates of cyclic fatigue-crack growth of incipient flaws in prosthetic heart-valve components made of pyrolytic carbon-coated graphite. Such data are required to predict the safe structural lifetime of mechanical heart-valve prostheses using damage-tolerant analysis. Unlike previous studies where fatigue-crack propagation data were obtained using through-thickness, long cracks (approximately 2-20 mm long), growing in conventional (e.g., compact-tension) samples, experiments were performed on physically small cracks (approximately 100-600 microns long), initiated on the surface of the pyrolytic-carbon coating to simulate reality. Small-crack toughness results were found to agree closely with those measured conventionally with long cracks. However, similar to well-known observations in metal fatigue, it was found that based on the usual computations of the applied (far-field) driving force in terms of the maximum stress intensity, Kmax, small fatigue cracks grew at rates that exceeded those of long cracks at the same applied stress intensity, and displayed a negative dependency on Kmax; moreover, they grew at applied stress intensities less than the fatigue threshold value, below which long cracks are presumed dormant. To resolve this apparent discrepancy, it is shown that long and small crack results can be normalized, provided growth rates are characterized in terms of the total (near-tip) stress intensity (incorporating, for example, the effect of residual stress); with this achieved, in principle, either form of data can be used for life prediction of implant devices. Inspection of the long and small crack results reveals extensive scatter inherent in both forms of growth-rate data for the pyrolytic-carbon material.

Attractor learning in synchronized chaotic systems in the presence of unresolved scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegerinck, W.; Selten, F. M.

2017-12-01

Recently, supermodels consisting of an ensemble of interacting models, synchronizing on a common solution, have been proposed as an alternative to the common non-interactive multi-model ensembles in order to improve climate predictions. The connection terms in the interacting ensemble are to be optimized based on the data. The supermodel approach has been successfully demonstrated in a number of simulation experiments with an assumed ground truth and a set of good, but imperfect models. The supermodels were optimized with respect to their short-term prediction error. Nevertheless, they produced long-term climatological behavior that was close to the long-term behavior of the assumed ground truth, even in cases where the long-term behavior of the imperfect models was very different. In these supermodel experiments, however, a perfect model class scenario was assumed, in which the ground truth and imperfect models belong to the same model class and only differ in parameter setting. In this paper, we consider the imperfect model class scenario, in which the ground truth model class is more complex than the model class of imperfect models due to unresolved scales. We perform two supermodel experiments in two toy problems. The first one consists of a chaotically driven Lorenz 63 oscillator ground truth and two Lorenz 63 oscillators with constant forcings as imperfect models. The second one is more realistic and consists of a global atmosphere model as ground truth and imperfect models that have perturbed parameters and reduced spatial resolution. In both problems, we find that supermodel optimization with respect to short-term prediction error can lead to a long-term climatological behavior that is worse than that of the imperfect models. However, we also show that attractor learning can remedy this problem, leading to supermodels with long-term behavior superior to the imperfect models.

Predictive Performance of Echocardiographic Parameters for Cardiovascular Events Among Elderly Treated Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Enayet K; Jennings, Garry L R; Dewar, Elizabeth; Wing, Lindon M H; Reid, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Hypertension leads to cardiac structural and functional changes, commonly assessed by echocardiography. In this study, we assessed the predictive performance of different echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on future cardiovascular outcomes in elderly hypertensive patients without heart failure. Data from LVH substudy of the Second Australian National Blood Pressure trial were used. Echocardiograms were performed at entry into the study. Cardiovascular outcomes were identified over short term (median 4.2 years) and long term (median 10.9 years). LVH was defined using threshold values of LV mass (LVM) indexed to either body surface area (BSA) or height(2.7): >115/95g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(115/95)) or ≥49/45g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(49/45)) in males/females, respectively, and ≥125g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(125)) or ≥51g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(51)) for both sexes. In the 666 participants aged ≥65 years in this analysis, LVH prevalence at baseline was 33%-70% depending on definition; and after adjusting for potential risk factors, only LVH-BSA(115/95) predicted both short- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Participants having LVH-BSA(115/95) (69%) at baseline had twice the risk of having any first cardiovascular event over the short term (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 2.00, 1.12-3.57, P = 0.02) and any fatal cardiovascular events (2.11, 1.21-3.68, P = 0.01) over the longer term. Among other echocardiographic parameters, LVM and LVM indexed to either BSA or height(2.7) predicted cardiovascular events over both short and longer term. In elderly treated hypertensive patients without heart failure, determining LVH by echocardiography is highly dependent on the methodology adopted. LVH-BSA(115/95) is a reliable predictor of future cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Method to predict seasonal high ground water table (SHGWT) [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

To help assure stability and long-term performance of pavement, a roadways base layer must : remain dry and be higher than the seasonal high groundwater table (SHGWT). Otherwise, the : roadways foundation can be weakened during certain times of...

Development of a Long-Life-Cycle, Highly Water-Resistant Solar Reflective Retrofit Roof Coating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polyzos, Georgios; Hunter, Scott; Sharma, Jaswinder

2016-03-04

Highly water-resistant and solar-reflective coatings for low-slope roofs are potentially among the most economical retrofit approaches to thermal management of the building envelope. Therefore, they represent a key building technology research program within the Department of Energy. Research efforts in industry and the Department of Energy are currently under way to increase long-term solar reflectance on a number of fronts. These include new polymer coatings technologies to provide longer-lasting solar reflectivity and improved test methodologies to predict long-term soiling and microbial performance. The focus on long-term improvements in soiling and microbial resistance for maximum reflectance does not address the singlemore » most important factor impacting the long-term sustainability of low-slope roof coatings: excellent water resistance. The hydrophobic character of asphaltic roof products makes them uniquely suitable for water resistance, but their low albedo and poor exterior durability are disadvantages. A reflective coating that maintains very high water resistance with increased long-term resistance to soiling and microbial activity would provide additional energy savings and extend roof service life.« less

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, Cynthia R.; Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose: We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method: Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear…

A new model integrating short- and long-term aging of copper added to soils

PubMed Central

Zeng, Saiqi; Li, Jumei; Wei, Dongpu

2017-01-01

Aging refers to the processes by which the bioavailability/toxicity, isotopic exchangeability, and extractability of metals added to soils decline overtime. We studied the characteristics of the aging process in copper (Cu) added to soils and the factors that affect this process. Then we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict the lability of Cu during the aging process with descriptions of the diffusion process using complementary error function. In the previous studies, two semi-mechanistic models to separately predict short-term and long-term aging of Cu added to soils were developed with individual descriptions of the diffusion process. In the short-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the square root of incubation time (t1/2), and in the long-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the natural logarithm of incubation time (lnt). Both models could predict short-term or long-term aging processes separately, but could not predict the short- and long-term aging processes by one model. By analyzing and combining the two models, we found that the short- and long-term behaviors of the diffusion process could be described adequately using the complementary error function. The effect of temperature on the diffusion process was obtained in this model as well. The model can predict the aging process continuously based on four factors—soil pH, incubation time, soil organic matter content and temperature. PMID:28820888

Definition of perspective scheme of organization of traffic using methods of forecasting and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasov, V. M.; Novikov, A. N.; Novikov, I. A.; Shevtsova, A. G.

2018-03-01

In the environment of highly developed urban agglomerations, one of the main problems arises - inability of the road network to reach a high level of motorization. The introduction of intelligent transport systems allows solving this problem, but the main issue in their implementation remains open: to what extent this or that method of improving the transport network will be effective and whether it is able to solve the problem of vehicle growth especially for the long-term period. The main goal of this work was the development of an approach to forecasting the increase in the intensity of traffic flow for a long-term period using the population and the level of motorization. The developed approach made it possible to determine the projected population and, taking into account the level of motorization, to determine the growth factor of the traffic flow intensity, which allows calculating the intensity value for a long-term period with high accuracy. The analysis of the main methods for predicting the characteristics of the transport stream is performed. The basic values and parameters necessary for their use are established. The analysis of the urban settlement is carried out and the level of motorization characteristic for the given locality is determined. A new approach to predicting the intensity of the traffic flow has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the change in the transport situation in the long term in high accuracy. Calculations of the magnitude of the intensity increase on the basis of the developed forecasting method are made and the errors in the data obtained are determined. The main recommendations on the use of the developed forecasting approach for the long-term functioning of the road network are formulated.

The effect of early psychological symptom severity on long-term functional recovery: A secondary analysis of data from a cohort study of minor injury patients

PubMed Central

Jacoby, Sara F.; Shults, Justine; Richmond, Therese S.

2016-01-01

Background The mental health consequences of injuries can interfere with recovery to pre-injury levels of function and long term wellbeing. Objectives The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between psychological symptoms after minor injury and long-term functional recovery and disability. Design This exploratory study uses secondary data derived from a longitudinal cohort study of psychological outcomes after minor injury. Setting Participants were recruited from the Emergency Department of an urban hospital in the United States. Participants A cohort of 275 patients was randomly selected from 1100 consecutive emergency department admissions for minor injury. Potential participants were identified as having sustained minor injury by the combination of three standard criteria including: presentation to the emergency department for medical care within 24 hours of a physical injury, evidence of anatomical injury defined as minor by an injury severity score between 2 and 8 and normal physiology as defined by a triage-Revised Trauma Score of 12. Patients with central nervous system injuries, injury requiring medical care in the past 2 years and/or resulting from domestic violence, and those diagnosed with major depression or psychotic disorders were excluded. Methods Psychological symptom severity was assessed within 2 weeks of injury, and outcome measures for functional limitations and disability were collected at 3, 6 and 12 months. A quasi-least squares approach was used to examine the relationship between psychological symptom scores at intake and work performance and requirement for bed rest in the year after injury. Results Adjusting for demographic and injury covariates, depression symptoms at the time of injury significantly predicted (p≤0.05) both poorer work performance and increased number of days in bed due to health in the year after injury. Anxiety symptoms significantly predicted (p≤0.05) bed days at 3, 6, and 12 months and work performance at 3 months. Conclusions Depression and anxiety soon after minor injury may help predict important markers of long-term recovery. With further research, simple assessment tools for psychological symptoms may be useful to screen for patients who are at higher risk for poor long-term recoveries and who may benefit from targeted interventions. PMID:27863295

The effect of early psychological symptom severity on long-term functional recovery: A secondary analysis of data from a cohort study of minor injury patients.

PubMed

Jacoby, Sara F; Shults, Justine; Richmond, Therese S

2017-01-01

The mental health consequences of injuries can interfere with recovery to pre-injury levels of function and long term wellbeing. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between psychological symptoms after minor injury and long-term functional recovery and disability. This exploratory study uses secondary data derived from a longitudinal cohort study of psychological outcomes after minor injury. Participants were recruited from the Emergency Department of an urban hospital in the United States. A cohort of 275 patients was randomly selected from 1100 consecutive emergency department admissions for minor injury. Potential participants were identified as having sustained minor injury by the combination of three standard criteria including: presentation to the emergency department for medical care within 24h of a physical injury, evidence of anatomical injury defined as minor by an injury severity score between 2 and 8 and normal physiology as defined by a triage-Revised Trauma Score of 12. Patients with central nervous system injuries, injury requiring medical care in the past 2 years and/or resulting from domestic violence, and those diagnosed with major depression or psychotic disorders were excluded. Psychological symptom severity was assessed within 2 weeks of injury, and outcome measures for functional limitations and disability were collected at 3, 6 and 12 months. A quasi-least squares approach was used to examine the relationship between psychological symptom scores at intake and work performance and requirement for bed rest in the year after injury. Adjusting for demographic and injury covariates, depression symptoms at the time of injury predicted (p≤0.05) both poorer work performance and increased number of days in bed due to health in the year after injury. Anxiety symptoms predicted (p≤0.05) bed days at 3, 6, and 12 months and work performance at 3 months. Depression and anxiety soon after minor injury may help predict important markers of long-term recovery. With further research, simple assessment tools for psychological symptoms may be useful to screen for patients who are at higher risk for poor long-term recoveries and who may benefit from targeted interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive validity of driving-simulator assessments following traumatic brain injury: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Lew, Henry L; Poole, John H; Lee, Eun Ha; Jaffe, David L; Huang, Hsiu-Chen; Brodd, Edward

2005-03-01

To evaluate whether driving simulator and road test evaluations can predict long-term driving performance, we conducted a prospective study on 11 patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. Sixteen healthy subjects were also tested to provide normative values on the simulator at baseline. At their initial evaluation (time-1), subjects' driving skills were measured during a 30-minute simulator trial using an automated 12-measure Simulator Performance Index (SPI), while a trained observer also rated their performance using a Driving Performance Inventory (DPI). In addition, patients were evaluated on the road by a certified driving evaluator. Ten months later (time-2), family members observed patients driving for at least 3 hours over 4 weeks and rated their driving performance using the DPI. At time-1, patients were significantly impaired on automated SPI measures of driving skill, including: speed and steering control, accidents, and vigilance to a divided-attention task. These simulator indices significantly predicted the following aspects of observed driving performance at time-2: handling of automobile controls, regulation of vehicle speed and direction, higher-order judgment and self-control, as well as a trend-level association with car accidents. Automated measures of simulator skill (SPI) were more sensitive and accurate than observational measures of simulator skill (DPI) in predicting actual driving performance. To our surprise, the road test results at time-1 showed no significant relation to driving performance at time-2. Simulator-based assessment of patients with brain injuries can provide ecologically valid measures that, in some cases, may be more sensitive than a traditional road test as predictors of long-term driving performance in the community.

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration.

PubMed

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L; Kendrick, Gary A

2011-10-01

Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. A functional-structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional-structural plant modelling.

Long-term disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: a 15-year study.

PubMed

Rocca, Maria A; Sormani, Maria Pia; Rovaris, Marco; Caputo, Domenico; Ghezzi, Angelo; Montanari, Enrico; Bertolotto, Antonio; Laroni, Alice; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Martinelli, Vittorio; Comi, Giancarlo; Filippi, Massimo

2017-11-01

Prognostic markers of primary progressive multiple sclerosis evolution are needed. We investigated the added value of magnetic resonance imaging measures of brain and cervical cord damage in predicting long-term clinical worsening of primary progressive multiple sclerosis compared to simple clinical assessment. In 54 patients, conventional and diffusion tensor brain scans and cervical cord T1-weighted scans were acquired at baseline and after 15 months. Clinical evaluation was performed after 5 and 15 years in 49 patients. Lesion load, brain and cord atrophy, mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy values from the brain normal-appearing white matter and grey matter were obtained. Using linear regression models, we screened the clinical and imaging variables as independent predictors of 15-year disability change (measured on the expanded disability status scale). At 15 years, 90% of the patients had disability progression. Integrating clinical and imaging variables at 15 months predicted disability changes at 15 years better than clinical factors at 5 years (R2 = 61% versus R2 = 57%). The model predicted long-term disability change with a precision within one point in 38 of 49 patients (77.6%). Integration of clinical and imaging measures allows identification of primary progressive multiple sclerosis patients at risk of long-term disease progression 4 years earlier than when using clinical assessment alone. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-term survival with modern therapeutic agents against metastatic melanoma-vemurafenib and ipilimumab in a daily life setting.

PubMed

Lang, B M; Peveling-Oberhag, A; Faidt, D; Hötker, A M; Weyer-Elberich, V; Grabbe, S; Loquai, C

2018-01-31

Despite new therapeutic options, metastatic melanoma remains to be one of the most fatal tumors. With the development of BRAF inhibitors and immune checkpoint inhibitors, overall survival could be prolonged significantly for the first time. Clinical studies implied that even long-term survival is possible with both types of drugs, but predictive markers are so far missing. In this study, we analyzed survival data from patients that received the first-in-class substances vemurafenib and ipilimumab, respectively, during the time period from registration of the drugs until availability of combination treatments. We aimed to evaluate the possibility of long-term survival in a daily life setting and to characterize patients that benefit from these drugs in order to gain insight into predictive attributes. Eighty patients were evaluated who were treated with either vemurafenib (n = 40) or ipilimumab (n = 40), and overall survival was analyzed. Subgroup analysis was performed for patients who were still alive 24 months after induction of therapy (long-term survival). Median overall survival (OS) was 8.0 months for patients treated with vemurafenib and 10.0 months for patients treated with ipilimumab (log-rank P value = 0.689). Long-term survival was achieved in 32.5% of patients (42.3% vemurafenib, 57.7% ipilimumab). Negative predictors of long-term survival in the vemurafenib group were brain and liver metastases, as well as elevated LDH, S100ß and liver enzymes. For ipilimumab, an increase in lymphocytes and eosinophils during course of treatment correlated with long-term survival. Our real-life experience shows that long-term survival is possible with using both therapeutic agents, vemurafenib and ipilimumab. Pattern of metastases and laboratory values might be of interest in decision making for a specific therapeutic approach. Combination of drugs and observational studies in larger patient cohorts are necessary to further validate our findings.

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Improving sneaky-sex in a low oxygen environment: reproductive and physiological responses of male mosquito fish to chronic hypoxia.

PubMed

Carter, Alecia J; Wilson, Robbie S

2006-12-01

Few studies have examined the adaptive significance of reversible acclimation responses. The aerobic performance and mating behaviour of the sexually coercive male eastern mosquito fish (Gambusia holbrooki) offers an excellent model system for testing the benefits of reversible acclimation responses to mating success. We exposed male mosquito fish to normoxic or hypoxic conditions for 4 weeks and tested their maximum sustained swimming performance and their ability to obtain coercive matings under both normoxic and hypoxic conditions. We predicted that hypoxia-acclimated males would possess greater swimming and mating performance in hypoxic conditions than normoxic-acclimated males, and vice versa when tested in normoxia. Supporting our predictions, we found the sustained swimming performance of male mosquito fish was greater in a hypoxic environment following long-term exposure to low partial pressures of oxygen. However, the benefits of acclimation responses to mating performance were dependent on whether they were tested in the presence or absence of male-male competition. In a non-competitive environment, male mosquito fish acclimated to hypoxic conditions spent a greater amount of time following females and obtained more copulations than normoxic-acclimated males when tested in low partial pressures of oxygen. When males were competed against each other for copulations, we found no influence of long-term exposure to different partial pressures of oxygen on mating behaviour. Thus, despite improvements in the aerobic capacity of male mosquito fish following long-term acclimation to hypoxic conditions, these benefits did not always manifest themselves in improved mating performance. This study represents one of the first experimental tests of the benefits of reversible acclimation responses, and indicates that the ecological significance of physiological plasticity may be more complicated than previously imagined.

Comparison of the performances of copeptin and multiple biomarkers in long-term prognosis of severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Zhang, Zu-Yong; Zhang, Li-Xin; Dong, Xiao-Qiao; Yu, Wen-Hua; Du, Quan; Yang, Ding-Bo; Shen, Yong-Feng; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Qiang; Che, Zhi-Hao; Liu, Qun-Jie; Jiang, Li; Du, Yuan-Feng

2014-10-01

Enhanced blood levels of copeptin correlate with poor clinical outcomes after acute critical illness. This study aimed to compare the prognostic performances of plasma concentrations of copeptin and other biomarkers like myelin basic protein, glial fibrillary astrocyte protein, S100B, neuron-specific enolase, phosphorylated axonal neurofilament subunit H, Tau and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase L1 in severe traumatic brain injury. We recruited 102 healthy controls and 102 acute patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Their prognostic predictive performances of 6-month mortality and unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1-3) were compared. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were statistically significantly higher in all patients than in healthy controls, in non-survivors than in survivors and in patients with unfavorable outcome than with favorable outcome. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were similar to those of Glasgow Coma Scale score for prognostic prediction. Except plasma copeptin concentration, other biomarkers concentrations in plasma did not statistically significantly improve prognostic predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale score. Copeptin levels may be a useful tool to predict long-term clinical outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury and have a potential to assist clinicians. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RTG performance on Galileo and Ulysses and Cassini test results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, C. Edward; Klee, Paul M.

Power output from telemetry for the two Galileo RTGs are shown from the 1989 launch to the recent Jupiter encounter. Comparisons of predicted, measured and required performance are shown. Similar comparisons are made for the RTG on the Ulysses spacecraft which completed its planned mission in 1995. Also presented are test results from small scale thermoelectric modules and full scale converters performed for the Cassini program. The Cassini mission to Saturn is scheduled for an October 1997 launch. Small scale module test results on thermoelectric couples from the qualification and flight production runs are shown. These tests have exceeded 19,000more » hours are continuing to provide increased confidence in the predicted long term performance of the Cassini RTGs. Test results are presented for full scale units both ETGs (E-6, E-7) and RTGs (F-2, F-5) along with mission power predictions. F-5, fueled in 1985, served as a spare for the Galileo and Ulysses missions and plays the same role in the Cassini program. It has successfully completed all acceptance testing. The ten years storage between thermal vacuum tests is the longest ever experienced by an RTG. The data from this test are unique in providing the effects of long term low temperature storage on power output. All ETG and RTG test results to date indicate that the power requirements of the Cassini spacecraft will be met. BOM and EOM power margins of at least five percent are predicted.« less

Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Pinsky, Brett W; Lentine, Krista L; Ercole, Patrick R; Salvalaggio, Paolo R; Burroughs, Thomas E; Schnitzler, Mark A

2012-07-01

The ability to accurately predict a population's long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population's long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS) projections were calculated and compared with the population's actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1) fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A) and (2) uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B). Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted survival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%). Excellent predictability (41.3%) can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population's long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

Ex Vivo Perfusion Characteristics of Donation After Cardiac Death Kidneys Predict Long-Term Graft Survival.

PubMed

Sevinc, M; Stamp, S; Ling, J; Carter, N; Talbot, D; Sheerin, N

2016-12-01

Ex vivo perfusion is used in our unit for kidneys donated after cardiac death (DCD). Perfusion flow index (PFI), resistance, and perfusate glutathione S-transferase (GST) can be measured to assess graft viability. We assessed whether measurements taken during perfusion could predict long-term outcome after transplantation. All DCD kidney transplants performed from 2002 to 2014 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were: incomplete data, kidneys not machine perfused, kidneys perfused in continuous mode, and dual transplantation. There were 155 kidney transplantations included in the final analysis. Demographic data, ischemia times, donor hypertension, graft function, survival and machine perfusion parameters after 3 hours were analyzed. Each perfusion parameter was divided into 3 groups as high, medium, and low. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was calculated at 12 months and then yearly after transplantation. There was a significant association between graft survival and PFI and GST (P values, .020 and .022, respectively). PFI was the only independent parameter to predict graft survival. A low PFI during ex vivo hypothermic perfusion is associated with inferior graft survival after DCD kidney transplantation. We propose that PFI is a measure of the health of the graft vasculature and that a low PFI indicates vascular disease and therefore predicts a worse long-term outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory

PubMed Central

Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM. PMID:29391864

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory.

PubMed

Yang, Haimin; Pan, Zhisong; Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

Long-term fitness consequences of early environment in a long-lived ungulate

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Pelletier, Fanie

2017-01-01

Cohort effects can be a major source of heterogeneity and play an important role in population dynamics. Silver-spoon effects, when environmental quality at birth improves future performance regardless of the adult environment, can induce strong lagged responses on population growth. Alternatively, the external predictive adaptive response (PAR) hypothesis predicts that organisms will adjust their developmental trajectory and physiology during early life in anticipation of expected adult conditions but has rarely been assessed in wild species. We used over 40 years of detailed individual monitoring of bighorn ewes (Ovis canadensis) to quantify long-term cohort effects on survival and reproduction. We then tested both the silver-spoon and the PAR hypotheses. Cohort effects involved a strong interaction between birth and current environments: reproduction and survival were lowest for ewes that were born and lived at high population densities. This interaction, however, does not support the PAR hypothesis because individuals with matching high-density birth and adult environments had reduced fitness. Instead, individuals born at high density had overall lower lifetime fitness suggesting a silver-spoon effect. Early-life conditions can induce long-term changes in fitness components, and their effects on cohort fitness vary according to adult environment. PMID:28424347

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Long-Term Nutrient Performance in a Bioinfiltration Rain Garden

EPA Science Inventory

The goals of this study is to gain a better understanding of the nutrients and metals removal mechanisms involved in a bioinfiltration stormwater abatement system, predict the useful life of a bioinfiltration BMP for the removal of certain contaminants and assess toxicity of stor...

Cross-national prevalence and cultural correlates of bipolar I disorder.

PubMed

Johnson, Kaja R; Johnson, Sheri L

2014-07-01

Bipolar disorder has been consistently related to heightened sensitivity to reward. Greater reward sensitivity predicts the onset of disorder, a more severe course, and conversion from milder to severe forms. No studies consider whether cultural factors related to reward sensitivity influence the course of bipolar disorder. This study examines the relationship of reward-relevant cultural values to global prevalence rates of bipolar I disorder. Lifetime prevalence of bipolar I disorder for 17 countries was drawn from epidemiological studies that used structured diagnostic interviews of large community samples. Bivariate correlations were used to assess the relationship of bipolar disorder prevalence with national scores on four reward-relevant cultural dimensions (Power Distance, Individualism, Long-Term Orientation, and Performance Orientation). The prevalence of bipolar I disorder was correlated in the predicted manner with Power Distance and Individualism, and with Long-Term Orientation and Performance Orientation after outliers were removed. Findings provide evidence for a cultural model of reward sensitivity in bipolar disorder.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day’s closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance. PMID:28708865

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance.

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players

PubMed Central

Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance. PMID:25805981

MRI as a Translational Tool for the Study of Neonatal Stroke

PubMed Central

Dzietko, Mark; Wendland, Michael; Derugin, Nikita; Ferriero, Donna M.; Vexler, Zinaida S.

2013-01-01

More than half of neonatal stroke survivors have long-term sequelae, including seizures and neurological deficits. Although the immature brain has tremendous potential for recovery, mechanisms governing repair are essentially unexplored. We explored whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) early or late after transient middle cerebral arterial occlusion in 10-day-old (P10) rats can serve as an intermediate endpoint for long-term studies. Injured animals selected by diffusion-weighted MRI during middle cerebral arterial occlusion were scanned using T2-weighted MRI at P18 and P25 (injury volumes on MRI and histology were compared), or were subjected to contrast-enhanced MRI at P13 to characterize cerebral microcirculatory disturbances and blood-brain barrier leakage. Injury volume did not predict histological outcome at 2 weeks. Major reductions occurred by P18, with no further changes by P25. Cerebral perfusion was significantly reduced in the injured caudate but blood-brain barrier leakage was small. Therefore, conventional T2-weighted MRI performed during a subchronic injury phase predicts long-term histological outcome after experimental neonatal focal stroke. PMID:21670390

Prediction of field emitter cathode lifetime based on measurement of I- V curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormashov, V. S.; Nikolski, K. N.; Baturin, A. S.; Sheshin, E. P.

2003-06-01

A technique is presented, which allows the prediction of field emitter cathode lifetime without long-term direct measurements of cathode parameters stability. This technique is based on periodic measurements of cathode I- V characteristics. Moreover, it allows performing a post-experiment optimization for the appropriate choice of the feedback system to provide a stable operation during a long time. The proposed technique was applied to study the emission properties of reticulated vitreous carbon (RVC) and thermo-enlarged graphite (TEG). For the given cathodes, the characteristic time of the cathode destruction was estimated.

Alterations in task-induced activity and resting-state fluctuations in visual and DMN areas revealed in long-term meditators.

PubMed

Berkovich-Ohana, Aviva; Harel, Michal; Hahamy, Avital; Arieli, Amos; Malach, Rafael

2016-07-15

Recently we proposed that the information contained in spontaneously emerging (resting-state) fluctuations may reflect individually unique neuro-cognitive traits. One prediction of this conjecture, termed the "spontaneous trait reactivation" (STR) hypothesis, is that resting-state activity patterns could be diagnostic of unique personalities, talents and life-styles of individuals. Long-term meditators could provide a unique experimental group to test this hypothesis. Using fMRI we found that, during resting-state, the amplitude of spontaneous fluctuations in long-term mindfulness meditation (MM) practitioners was enhanced in the visual cortex and significantly reduced in the DMN compared to naïve controls. Importantly, during a visual recognition memory task, the MM group showed heightened visual cortex responsivity, concomitant with weaker negative responses in Default Mode Network (DMN) areas. This effect was also reflected in the behavioral performance, where MM practitioners performed significantly faster than the control group. Thus, our results uncover opposite changes in the visual and default mode systems in long-term meditators which are revealed during both rest and task. The results support the STR hypothesis and extend it to the domain of local changes in the magnitude of the spontaneous fluctuations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early disturbances in multimodal evoked potentials as a prognostic factor for long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients.

PubMed

London, Frédéric; El Sankari, Souraya; van Pesch, Vincent

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether early alterations in evoked potentials (EPs) have a prognostic value in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). We retrospectively selected 108 early MS patients with a neurological follow-up ranging from 5 to 15years, in whom multimodal EPs (visual, brainstem auditory, somatosensory and motor) were performed at diagnosis. A conventional ordinal score was used to quantify the observed abnormalities. The extent of change in the composite EP score was well correlated to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at ten years (Y 10 ) and up to 15years (Y 11-15 ) after disease onset. Analysis of the predictive value of the EP score showed an increased risk of disability progression at Y 10 and Y 11-15 of 60% (p<0.0001) and 73% (p<0.0001) respectively in patients with an EP score >4. Conversely, the risk of disability progression at Y 10 and Y 11-15 associated with a lower EP score (⩽4) was reduced to 16% and 20% respectively. Our data support the good predictive value for long-term disability progression of multimodal EPs performed early after disease onset in RRMS patients. This study, performed in a homogeneous RRMS cohort with long term follow-up, demonstrates the value of an early comprehensive neurophysiological assessment as a marker for future disability. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling framework for representing long-term effectiveness of best management practices in addressing hydrology and water quality problems: Framework development and demonstration using a Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaoze; Engel, Bernard A.; Flanagan, Dennis C.; Gitau, Margaret W.; McMillan, Sara K.; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Singh, Shweta

2018-05-01

Best management practices (BMPs) are popular approaches used to improve hydrology and water quality. Uncertainties in BMP effectiveness over time may result in overestimating long-term efficiency in watershed planning strategies. To represent varying long-term BMP effectiveness in hydrologic/water quality models, a high level and forward-looking modeling framework was developed. The components in the framework consist of establishment period efficiency, starting efficiency, efficiency for each storm event, efficiency between maintenance, and efficiency over the life cycle. Combined, they represent long-term efficiency for a specific type of practice and specific environmental concern (runoff/pollutant). An approach for possible implementation of the framework was discussed. The long-term impacts of grass buffer strips (agricultural BMP) and bioretention systems (urban BMP) in reducing total phosphorus were simulated to demonstrate the framework. Data gaps were captured in estimating the long-term performance of the BMPs. A Bayesian method was used to match the simulated distribution of long-term BMP efficiencies with the observed distribution with the assumption that the observed data represented long-term BMP efficiencies. The simulated distribution matched the observed distribution well with only small total predictive uncertainties. With additional data, the same method can be used to further improve the simulation results. The modeling framework and results of this study, which can be adopted in hydrologic/water quality models to better represent long-term BMP effectiveness, can help improve decision support systems for creating long-term stormwater management strategies for watershed management projects.

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L.; Kendrick, Gary A.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. Methods A functional–structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. Key Results The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. Conclusions This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional–structural plant modelling. PMID:21821624

Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

PubMed

Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

2018-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

Economic Evaluation of Single-Family-Residence Solar-Energy Installation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Long-term economic performance of a commercial solar-energy system was analyzed and used to predict economic performance at four additional sites. Analysis described in report was done to demonstrate viability of design over a broad range of environmental/economic conditions. Report contains graphs and tables that present evaluation procedure and results. Also contains appendixes that aid in understanding methods used.

Cognitive Coping as a Mechanism of Change in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Fear of Flying: A Longitudinal Study With 3-Year Follow-Up.

PubMed

Busscher, Bert; Spinhoven, Philip

2017-09-01

To examine the predictive value of cognitive coping strategies at pretreatment and the value of changes in these strategies during cognitive-behavioral treatment for aviophobia for long-term therapy results. Data from baseline, after therapy at 2 months, short-term follow-up at 5 months, and long-term follow-up at 41 months were analyzed (N = 59). Participants were in a long-term process of change, which continued positively after therapy for maladaptive cognitive coping strategies. The use of cognitive coping strategies at baseline was not predictive of long-term outcome. However, a greater increase in the use of adaptive coping strategies, and more importantly, a greater decrease in the use of maladaptive coping strategies were predictive of improvements indicated in self-report of flight anxiety and actual flight behavior at long-term follow-up. Improvement of maladaptive cognitive coping strategies is possibly a key mechanism of change in cognitive-behavioral therapy for aviophobia. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Crosslink Density and Molecular Weight Effects on the Viscoelastic Response of a Glassy High-Performance Polyimide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholson, Lee M.; Whitley, Karen S.; Gates, Thomas S.

2001-01-01

Durability and long-term performance are among the primary concerns for the use of advanced polymer matrix composites (PMCs) in modern aerospace structural applications. For a PMC subJected to long-term exposure at elevated temperatures. the viscoelastic nature of the polymer matrix will contribute to macroscopic changes in composite stiffness, strength and fatigue life. Over time. changes in the polymer due to physical aging will have profound effects on tile viscoelastic compliance of the material, hence affecting its long-term durability. Thus, the ability to predict material performance using intrinsic properties, such as crosslink density and molecular weight, would greatly enhance the efficiency of design and development of PMCs. The objective of this paper is to discuss and present the results of an experimental study that considers the effects of crosslink density, molecular weight and temperature on the viscoelastic behavior including physical aging of an advanced polymer. Five distinct variations in crosslink density were used to evaluate the differences in mechanical performance of an advanced polyimide. The physical aging behavior was isolated by conducting sequenced, short-term isothermal creep compliance tests in tension. These tests were performed over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures. The material constants, material master curves and physical aging-related parameters were evaluated as a function of temperature crosslink density and molecular weight using time-temperature and time-aging time superposition techniques.

Assessing temporally and spatially resolved PM 2.5 exposures for epidemiological studies using satellite aerosol optical depth measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloog, Itai; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lee, Hyung Joo; Schwartz, Joel

2011-11-01

Land use regression (LUR) models provide good estimates of spatially resolved long-term exposures, but are poor at capturing short term exposures. Satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatio-temporally resolved predictions of both long and short term exposures, but previous studies have generally showed relatively low predictive power. Our objective was to extend our previous work on day-specific calibrations of AOD data using ground PM 2.5 measurements by incorporating commonly used LUR variables and meteorological variables, thus benefiting from both the spatial resolution from the LUR models and the spatio-temporal resolution from the satellite models. Later we use spatial smoothing to predict PM 2.5 concentrations for day/locations with missing AOD measures. We used mixed models with random slopes for day to calibrate AOD data for 2000-2008 across New-England with monitored PM 2.5 measurements. We then used a generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing to estimate PM 2.5 in location-day pairs with missing AOD, using regional measured PM 2.5, AOD values in neighboring cells, and land use. Finally, local (100 m) land use terms were used to model the difference between grid cell prediction and monitored value to capture very local traffic particles. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. For days with available AOD data we found high out-of-sample R2 (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.830, year to year variation 0.725-0.904). For days without AOD values, our model performance was also excellent (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.810, year to year variation 0.692-0.887). Importantly, these R2 are for daily, rather than monthly or yearly, values. Our model allows one to assess short term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and chronic effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

PubMed Central

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-01-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care.

PubMed

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-12-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care.

Timescale Correlation between Marine Atmospheric Exposure and Accelerated Corrosion Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Eliza L.; Calle, Luz Marina; Curran, Jerone C.; Kolody, Mark R.

2011-01-01

Evaluation of metal-based structures has long relied on atmospheric exposure test sites to determine corrosion resistance in marine environments. Traditional accelerated corrosion testing relies on mimicking the exposure conditions, often incorporating salt spray and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and exposing the metal to continuous or cyclic conditions of the corrosive environment. Their success for correlation to atmospheric exposure is often a concern when determining the timescale to which the accelerated tests can be related. Accelerated laboratory testing, which often focuses on the electrochemical reactions that occur during corrosion conditions, has yet to be universally accepted as a useful tool in predicting the long term service life of a metal despite its ability to rapidly induce corrosion. Although visual and mass loss methods of evaluating corrosion are the standard and their use is imperative, a method that correlates timescales from atmospheric exposure to accelerated testing would be very valuable. This work uses surface chemistry to interpret the chemical changes occurring on low carbon steel during atmospheric and accelerated corrosion conditions with the objective of finding a correlation between its accelerated and long-term corrosion performance. The current results of correlating data from marine atmospheric exposure conditions at the Kennedy Space Center beachside corrosion test site, alternating seawater spray, and immersion in typical electrochemical laboratory conditions, will be presented. Key words: atmospheric exposure, accelerated corrosion testing, alternating seawater spray, marine, correlation, seawater, carbon steel, long-term corrosion performance prediction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy.

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

Suggesting a new framework for predictive performance assessment: Trait vs State dimensions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattyn, Nathalie; Neyt, Xavier; Migeotte, Pierre-François; Morais, José; Soetens, Eric; Cluydts, Raymond; Meeusen, Romain; de Schutter, Guy; Nederhof, Esther; Kolinsky, Régine

IntroductionA major aim of performance investigation is to predict real-life performance, which is why both ESA (1) and NASA (2) have described the need to validly and reliably detect potential performance decrement as absolute requirements to manned long-duration missions. Whereas the predictive validity of such assessment has been extensively described for medium-term to long-term outcomes, as is the case for cognitive performance selection of student pilots for example, similar evidence is lacking regarding the immediate predictive value of cognitive testing, i.e., whether these results reflect real-life performance on an immediately subsequent task. Furthermore, whereas selection procedures are derived from population-based approaches, real-time monitoring of performance is often meant to be individual, which is an additional call for caution before concluding results from one setting to be applied to another. The MiniCog Rapid Assessment Battery (MRAB), which was termed by its authors "a blood pressure cuff for the mind" (3), aims at reflecting the functional status of a subject at any given moment. This battery was designed to provide a remote cognitive assessment of astronauts on a regular basis. We investigated its predictive value for real-life performance, together with a new approach to the assessment of cognitive performance in operational conditions, based on interference paradigms, the addition of emotionally loaded material and the concomitant measure of cardio-respiratory responses (4). MethodIn a first experiment, we investigated whether psychophysiological results would predict success of military student pilots (SPs; N=14) on a major evaluation flight right after the testing, and success in the rest of their flight training after a 6 months period. In a second experiment, we investigated whether extensive preliminary cognitive testing and individually tailored longitudinal monitoring of physical and cognitive performance could predict success of Special Forces trainees (N=7) during their training. ResultsThe first experiment showed no relationship whatsoever between cognitive performance on the very broad array of tests and immediately subsequent performance on the evaluation flight. However, physiological results showed a trend for students who passed the test to exhibit a larger physiological reactivity. Furthermore, the medium-term outcome of SPs in their flight training showed to be related to their test performance. Results of the second experiment (still in progress) will show whether, for an individual monitoring situation, there is a potential link between performance IQ and success on the training, and whether the longitudinal assessment of both cognitive performance, physical performance and physiological reactivity relates to immediately subsequent performance. DiscussionThese results suggest that a critical distinction could be made regarding predictive performance assessment, namely trait and state dimensions. Since one of the intended uses of operational test batteries is to provide an instantaneous measure of the cognitive status of the subject to allow the immediate execution of critical tasks, our results show this would be an inappropriate application so far. However, a dimension showing promising potential is the physiological reactivity. Whereas operational priorities clearly state the need for performance evaluation tools, their application cannot guide operational choices before sufficient validation allows justifying such decisions. References(1) HUMEX: Study on the Survivability and Adaptation of Humans to Long-duration Exploratory Missions (2000). European Space Agency. (2)BPCR: Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (2004). National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (3) Shephard, J. M. and Kosslyn, S. M. (2005). The MiniCog rapid assessment battery: Developing a "blood pressure cuff for the mind". Avn Space Enl Medicine, 76, B192-B197. (4) Pattyn, N.; Migeotte, P.F.; Morais, J.; Soetens, E.; Cluydts, R. and Kolinsky, R. (2007). Crew performance monitoring: Putting some feeling into it. Proceedings of the 58th International Astronautical Congress, IAC-07-A1.1.04.

Wireless shared resources : sharing right-of-way for wireless telecommunications : guidance on legal and institutional issues

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-04-01

The study reported here was conducted to assess how well some of the existing asphalt pavement mechanistic-empirical distress prediction models performed when used in conjunction with the data being collected as part of the national Long Term Pavemen...

Gray matter volume is associated with rate of subsequent skill learning after a long term training intervention

PubMed Central

Sampaio-Baptista, Cassandra; Scholz, Jan; Jenkinson, Mark; Thomas, Adam G.; Filippini, Nicola; Smit, Gabrielle; Douaud, Gwenaëlle; Johansen-Berg, Heidi

2014-01-01

The ability to predict learning performance from brain imaging data has implications for selecting individuals for training or rehabilitation interventions. Here, we used structural MRI to test whether baseline variations in gray matter (GM) volume correlated with subsequent performance after a long-term training of a complex whole-body task. 44 naïve participants were scanned before undertaking daily juggling practice for 6 weeks, following either a high intensity or a low intensity training regime. To assess performance across the training period participants' practice sessions were filmed. Greater GM volume in medial occipito-parietal areas at baseline correlated with steeper learning slopes. We also tested whether practice time or performance outcomes modulated the degree of structural brain change detected between the baseline scan and additional scans performed immediately after training and following a further 4 weeks without training. Participants with better performance had higher increases in GM volume during the period following training (i.e., between scans 2 and 3) in dorsal parietal cortex and M1. When contrasting brain changes between the practice intensity groups, we did not find any straightforward effects of practice time though practice modulated the relationship between performance and GM volume change in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These results suggest that practice time and performance modulate the degree of structural brain change evoked by long-term training regimes. PMID:24680712

The Surgical Apgar Score Predicts Not Only Short-Term Complications But Also Long-Term Prognosis After Esophagectomy.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Akio; Nakamura, Tetsu; Oshikiri, Taro; Hasegawa, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Masashi; Kanaji, Shingo; Matsuda, Yoshiko; Yamashita, Kimihiro; Matsuda, Takeru; Sumi, Yasuo; Suzuki, Satoshi; Kakeji, Yoshihiro

2017-12-01

The surgical Apgar score (SAS) quantifies three intraoperative factors and predicts postoperative complications, but few reports describe its usefulness in esophagectomy, and no studies to date show its correlation with long-term prognosis after esophagectomy. This study investigated 400 cases in which esophagectomy was performed on esophageal malignant tumors at the authors' hospital from January 2007 to January 2017. In this study, SAS was defined as the sum of the scores of three parameters, namely, estimated blood loss, lowest mean arterial pressure, and lowest heart rate, with values extracted from medical records. Postoperative complications classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 3 or higher were also extracted. The study retrospectively compared the relationship of SAS to postoperative complications and survival. Univariate analysis showed that postoperative complications were significantly associated with hypertension (p = 0.017), thoracotomy (p = 0.012), and SAS ≤ 5 (p < 0.0001), and multivariate analysis showed that hypertension (p = 0.049) and SAS ≤ 5 (p < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors for complications. In the prognostic analysis, log-rank analysis showed that patients with an SAS ≤ 5 had a significantly poorer prognosis than those with a SAS > 5 (p = 0.043), especially for complications classified as clinical stage 2 or higher (p = 0.027). In the multivariate analysis, SAS ≤ 5 was identified as a significantly poor prognostic factor for complications classified as clinical stage 2 or higher (p = 0.029). In this study, SAS was useful not only for predicting short-term complications, but also as a long-term prognostic factor after esophagectomy.

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership Experimental Programs and Software Advancing DOE’s Waste Disposal/Tank Closure Efforts – 15436

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Heather; Flach, Greg; Smith, Frank

2015-01-27

The U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Management (DOE-EM) Office of Tank Waste Management-sponsored Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) is chartered with providing the technical basis for implementing cement-based waste forms and radioactive waste containment structures for long-term disposal. DOE needs in this area include the following to support progress in final treatment and disposal of legacy waste and closure of High-Level Waste (HLW) tanks in the DOE complex: long-term performance predictions, flow sheet development and flow sheet enhancements, and conceptual designs for new disposal facilities. The DOE-EM Cementitious Barriers Partnership is producing software and experimental programs resulting in new methods andmore » data needed for end-users involved with environmental cleanup and waste disposal. Both the modeling tools and the experimental data have already benefited the DOE sites in the areas of performance assessments by increasing confidence backed up with modeling support, leaching methods, and transport properties developed for actual DOE materials. In 2014, the CBP Partnership released the CBP Software Toolbox –“Version 2.0” which provides concrete degradation models for 1) sulfate attack, 2) carbonation, and 3) chloride initiated rebar corrosion, and includes constituent leaching. These models are applicable and can be used by both DOE and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for service life and long-term performance evaluations and predictions of nuclear and radioactive waste containment structures across the DOE complex, including future SRS Saltstone and HLW tank performance assessments and special analyses, Hanford site HLW tank closure projects and other projects in which cementitious barriers are required, the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) project which requires source terms from cementitious containment structures as input to their flow simulations, regulatory reviews of DOE performance assessments, and Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews of commercial nuclear power plant (NPP) structures which are part of the overall US Energy Security program to extend the service life of NPPs. In addition, the CBP experimental programs have had a significant impact on the DOE complex by providing specific data unique to DOE sodium salt wastes at Hanford and SRS which are not readily available in the literature. Two recent experimental programs on cementitious phase characterization and on technetium (Tc) mobility have provided significant conclusions as follows: recent mineralogy characterization discussed in this paper illustrates that sodium salt waste form matrices are somewhat similar to but not the same as those found in blended cement matrices which to date have been used in long-term thermodynamic modeling and contaminant sequestration as a first approximation. Utilizing the CBP generated data in long-term performance predictions provides for a more defensible technical basis in performance evaluations. In addition, recent experimental studies related to technetium mobility indicate that conventional leaching protocols may not be conservative for direct disposal of Tc-containing waste forms in vadose zone environments. These results have the potential to influence the current Hanford supplemental waste treatment flow sheet and disposal conceptual design.« less

Thermo-physical performance prediction of the KSC Ground Operation Demonstration Unit for liquid hydrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baik, J. H.; Notardonato, W. U.; Karng, S. W.; Oh, I.

2015-12-01

NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) researchers have been working on enhanced and modernized cryogenic liquid propellant handling techniques to reduce life cycle costs of propellant management system for the unique KSC application. The KSC Ground Operation Demonstration Unit (GODU) for liquid hydrogen (LH2) plans to demonstrate integrated refrigeration, zero-loss flexible term storage of LH2, and densified hydrogen handling techniques. The Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) has partnered with the KSC researchers to develop thermal performance prediction model of the GODU for LH2. The model includes integrated refrigeration cooling performance, thermal losses in the tank and distribution lines, transient system characteristics during chilling and loading, and long term steady-state propellant storage. This paper will discuss recent experimental data of the GODU for LH2 system and modeling results.

Multistep-Ahead Air Passengers Traffic Prediction with Hybrid ARIMA-SVMs Models

PubMed Central

Ming, Wei; Xiong, Tao

2014-01-01

The hybrid ARIMA-SVMs prediction models have been established recently, which take advantage of the unique strength of ARIMA and SVMs models in linear and nonlinear modeling, respectively. Built upon this hybrid ARIMA-SVMs models alike, this study goes further to extend them into the case of multistep-ahead prediction for air passengers traffic with the two most commonly used multistep-ahead prediction strategies, that is, iterated strategy and direct strategy. Additionally, the effectiveness of data preprocessing approaches, such as deseasonalization and detrending, is investigated and proofed along with the two strategies. Real data sets including four selected airlines' monthly series were collected to justify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Empirical results demonstrate that the direct strategy performs better than iterative one in long term prediction case while iterative one performs better in the case of short term prediction. Furthermore, both deseasonalization and detrending can significantly improve the prediction accuracy for both strategies, indicating the necessity of data preprocessing. As such, this study contributes as a full reference to the planners from air transportation industries on how to tackle multistep-ahead prediction tasks in the implementation of either prediction strategy. PMID:24723814

AFGL Fiscal Year 1984 Air Force Technical Objectives Document.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

the near term, to design the performance characteristics of sensors operating from the Shuttle. In the long term, these sensors will provide the...atmosphere are determined from sensors on rockets and satellites. These data, which are used to develop tailored analytic and predictive models for...toward increasing the flight time of the various vehicles. Future research and test- ing of advanced sensors will require rockets with increased

Circulating complexes between tumour necrosis factor-alpha and etanercept predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Kahn, Robin; Berthold, Elisabet; Gullstrand, Birgitta; Schmidt, Tobias; Kahn, Fredrik; Geborek, Pierre; Saxne, Tore; Bengtsson, Anders A; Månsson, Bengt

2016-04-01

The relationship between tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and drug survival had not been studied in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and there were no laboratory tests to predict the long-term efficacy of biological drugs for JIA. We studied whether serum levels of TNF-α, free or bound to etanercept, could predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA. We included 41 biologic-naïve patients with JIA who started treatment with etanercept at Skåne University Hospital between 1999 and 2010. Serum taken at the start of treatment and at the six-week follow-up were analysed for TNF-α and the long-term efficacy of etanercept was assessed using the drug survival time. Levels of TNF-α increased significantly at the six-week follow-up, and this was almost exclusively comprised of TNF-α in complex with etanercept. The increase in TNF-α showed a dose-dependent correlation to long-term drug survival (p < 0.01). Increasing levels of circulating TNF-α at treatment initiation predicted long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA, which may have been due to different pathophysiological mechanisms of inflammation. Our result may provide a helpful clinical tool, as high levels of circulating TNF-α/etanercept complexes could be used as a marker for the long-term efficacy of etanercept. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

2013-01-01

Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

2016-04-01

Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Verbal Memory Impairment in Polydrug Ecstasy Users: A Clinical Perspective.

PubMed

Kuypers, Kim P C; Theunissen, Eef L; van Wel, Janelle H P; de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Linssen, Anke; Sambeth, Anke; Schultz, Benjamin G; Ramaekers, Johannes G

2016-01-01

Ecstasy use has been associated with short-term and long-term memory deficits on a standard Word Learning Task (WLT). The clinical relevance of this has been debated and is currently unknown. The present study aimed at evaluating the clinical relevance of verbal memory impairment in Ecstasy users. To that end, clinical memory impairment was defined as decrement in memory performance that exceeded the cut-off value of 1.5 times the standard deviation of the average score in the healthy control sample. The primary question was whether being an Ecstasy user (E-user) was predictive of having clinically deficient memory performance compared to a healthy control group. WLT data were pooled from four experimental MDMA studies that compared memory performance during placebo and MDMA intoxication. Control data were taken from healthy volunteers with no drug use history who completed the WLT as part of a placebo-controlled clinical trial. This resulted in a sample size of 65 E-users and 65 age- and gender-matched healthy drug-naïve controls. All participants were recruited by similar means and were tested at the same testing facilities using identical standard operating procedures. Data were analyzed using linear mixed-effects models, Bayes factor, and logistic regressions. Findings were that verbal memory performance of placebo-treated E-users did not differ from that of controls, and there was substantial evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. History of use was not predictive of memory impairment. During MDMA intoxication of E-users, verbal memory was impaired. The combination of the acute and long-term findings demonstrates that, while clinically relevant memory impairment is present during intoxication, it is absent during abstinence. This suggests that use of Ecstasy/MDMA does not lead to clinically deficient memory performance in the long term. Additionally, it has to be investigated whether the current findings apply to more complex cognitive measures in diverse 'user categories' using a combination of genetics, imaging techniques and neuropsychological assessments.

Selection of Hidden Layer Neurons and Best Training Method for FFNN in Application of Long Term Load Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Navneet K.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Tripathy, Manoj

2012-05-01

For power industries electricity load forecast plays an important role for real-time control, security, optimal unit commitment, economic scheduling, maintenance, energy management, and plant structure planning etc. A new technique for long term load forecasting (LTLF) using optimized feed forward artificial neural network (FFNN) architecture is presented in this paper, which selects optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as the best training method for the case study. The prediction performance of proposed technique is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of Thailand private electricity consumption and forecasted data. The results obtained are compared with the results of classical auto-regressive (AR) and moving average (MA) methods. It is, in general, observed that the proposed method is prediction wise more accurate.

Mitochondrial Haplogroup Influences Motor Function in Long-Term HIV-1-Infected Individuals

PubMed Central

Azar, Ashley; Giovannetti, Tania; Pirrone, Vanessa; Nonnemacher, Michael R.; Passic, Shendra; Kercher, Katherine; Williams, Jean W.; Wigdahl, Brian; Dampier, William; Libon, David J.; Sell, Christian

2016-01-01

Evolutionary divergence of the mitochondrial genome has given rise to distinct haplogroups. These haplogroups have arisen in specific geographical locations and are responsible for subtle functional changes in the mitochondria that may provide an evolutionary advantage in a given environment. Based on these functional differences, haplogroups could define disease susceptibility in chronic settings. In this study, we undertook a detailed neuropsychological analysis of a cohort of long-term HIV-1-infected individuals in conjunction with sequencing of their mitochondrial genomes. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the best model for predicting both working memory and declarative memory were age and years since diagnosis. In contrast, years since diagnosis and sub-haplogroup were significantly predictive of psychomotor speed. Consistent with this, patients with haplogroup L3e obtained better scores on psychomotor speed and dexterity tasks when compared to the remainder of the cohort, suggesting that this haplogroup provides a protective advantage when faced with the combined stress of HIV-1 infection and long-term antiretroviral therapies. Differential performance on declarative memory tasks was noted for individuals with other sub-L haplogroups, but these differences were not as robust as the association between L3e and psychomotor speed and dexterity tasks. This work provides evidence that mitochondrial haplogroup is related to neuropsychological test performance among patients in chronic disease settings such as HIV-1 infection. PMID:27711166

Personalized long-term prediction of cognitive function: Using sequential assessments to improve model performance.

PubMed

Chi, Chih-Lin; Zeng, Wenjun; Oh, Wonsuk; Borson, Soo; Lenskaia, Tatiana; Shen, Xinpeng; Tonellato, Peter J

2017-12-01

Prediction of onset and progression of cognitive decline and dementia is important both for understanding the underlying disease processes and for planning health care for populations at risk. Predictors identified in research studies are typically accessed at one point in time. In this manuscript, we argue that an accurate model for predicting cognitive status over relatively long periods requires inclusion of time-varying components that are sequentially assessed at multiple time points (e.g., in multiple follow-up visits). We developed a pilot model to test the feasibility of using either estimated or observed risk factors to predict cognitive status. We developed two models, the first using a sequential estimation of risk factors originally obtained from 8 years prior, then improved by optimization. This model can predict how cognition will change over relatively long time periods. The second model uses observed rather than estimated time-varying risk factors and, as expected, results in better prediction. This model can predict when newly observed data are acquired in a follow-up visit. Performances of both models that are evaluated in10-fold cross-validation and various patient subgroups show supporting evidence for these pilot models. Each model consists of multiple base prediction units (BPUs), which were trained using the same set of data. The difference in usage and function between the two models is the source of input data: either estimated or observed data. In the next step of model refinement, we plan to integrate the two types of data together to flexibly predict dementia status and changes over time, when some time-varying predictors are measured only once and others are measured repeatedly. Computationally, both data provide upper and lower bounds for predictive performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Methods of Updating Training Data in Long-Term Genomewide Selection

PubMed Central

Neyhart, Jeffrey L.; Tiede, Tyler; Lorenz, Aaron J.; Smith, Kevin P.

2017-01-01

Genomewide selection is hailed for its ability to facilitate greater genetic gains per unit time. Over breeding cycles, the requisite linkage disequilibrium (LD) between quantitative trait loci and markers is expected to change as a result of recombination, selection, and drift, leading to a decay in prediction accuracy. Previous research has identified the need to update the training population using data that may capture new LD generated over breeding cycles; however, optimal methods of updating have not been explored. In a barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding simulation experiment, we examined prediction accuracy and response to selection when updating the training population each cycle with the best predicted lines, the worst predicted lines, both the best and worst predicted lines, random lines, criterion-selected lines, or no lines. In the short term, we found that updating with the best predicted lines or the best and worst predicted lines resulted in high prediction accuracy and genetic gain, but in the long term, all methods (besides not updating) performed similarly. We also examined the impact of including all data in the training population or only the most recent data. Though patterns among update methods were similar, using a smaller but more recent training population provided a slight advantage in prediction accuracy and genetic gain. In an actual breeding program, a breeder might desire to gather phenotypic data on lines predicted to be the best, perhaps to evaluate possible cultivars. Therefore, our results suggest that an optimal method of updating the training population is also very practical. PMID:28315831

Is Life better after motor cortex stimulation for pain control? Results at long-term and their prediction by preoperative rTMS.

PubMed

André-Obadia, Nathalie; Mertens, Patrick; Lelekov-Boissard, Taïssia; Afif, Afif; Magnin, Michel; Garcia-Larrea, Luis

2014-01-01

A positive effect of motor cortex stimulation (MCS) (defined as subjective estimations of pain relief ≥ 30%) has been reported in 55 - 64% of patients. Repetitive magnetic cortical stimulation (rTMS) is considered a predictor of MCS effect. These figures are, however, mostly based on subjective reports of pain intensity, and have not been confirmed in the long-term. This study assessed long-term pain relief (2 - 9 years) after epidural motor cortex stimulation and its pre-operative prediction by rTMS, using both intensity and Quality of Life (QoL) scales. Analysis of the long-term evolution of pain patients treated by epidural motor cortex stimulation, and predictive value of preoperative response to rTMS. University Neurological Hospital Pain Center. Twenty patients suffering chronic pharmaco-resistant neuropathic pain. All patients received first randomized sham vs. active 20 Hz-rTMS, before being submitted to MCS surgery. Postoperative pain relief was evaluated at 6 months and then up to 9 years post-MCS (average 6.1 ± 2.6 y) using (i) pain numerical rating scores (NRS); (ii) a combined assessment (CPA) including NRS, drug intake, and subjective quality of life; and (iii) a short questionnaire (HowRu) exploring discomfort, distress, disability, and dependence. Pain scores were significantly reduced by active (but not sham) rTMS and by subsequent MCS. Ten out of 20 patients kept a long-term benefit from MCS, both on raw pain scores and on CPA. The CPA results were strictly comparable when obtained by the surgeon or by a third-party on telephonic survey (r = 0.9). CPA scores following rTMS and long-term MCS were significantly associated (Fisher P = 0.02), with 90% positive predictive value and 67% negative predictive value of preoperative rTMS over long-term MCS results. On the HowRu questionnaire, long-term MCS-related improvement concerned "discomfort" (physical pain) and "dependence" (autonomy for daily activities), whereas "disability" (work, home, and leisure activities) and "distress" (anxiety, stress, depression) did not significantly improve. Limited cohort of patients with inhomogeneous pain etiology. Subjectivity of the reported items by the patient after a variable and long delay after surgery. Predictive evaluation based on a single rTMS session compared to chronic MCS. Half of the patients still retain a significant benefit after 2 - 9 years of continuous MCS, and this can be reasonably predicted by preoperative rTMS. Adding drug intake and QoL estimates to raw pain scores allows a more realistic assessment of long-term benefits and enhance the rTMS predictive value. The aims of this study and its design were approved by the local ethics committee (University Hospitals St Etienne and Lyon, France).

Long-term seizure outcome for international consensus classification of hippocampal sclerosis: a survival analysis.

PubMed

Na, Meng; Ge, Haitao; Shi, Chen; Shen, Hong; Wang, Yu; Pu, Song; Liu, Li; Wang, Haiyang; Xie, Chuncheng; Zhu, Minwei; Wang, Jiabin; Shi, Changbin; Lin, Zhiguo

2015-02-01

Surgery is regarded as a common treatment option for patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) as a result of hippocampal sclerosis (HS). However, approximately one-third of patients with intractable epilepsy did not become seizure-free after tailored resection strategies. It would be compelling to identify predictive factors of postoperative seizure outcomes. Our aim was to assess the correlation between HS classification and long-term postoperative seizure outcome in patients with MTLE due to HS. To investigate HS classification, semi-quantitative analysis and immunohistochemical staining of neuronal nuclei (NeuN) were performed on 100 postoperative hippocampal specimens. All patients had a 1-7 year postoperative follow-up. The postoperative seizure outcome was evaluated using International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) outcome classification. Three types of HS were recognized. The highest incidence of initial precipitating injury (IPI) was noted in the HS ILAE type 1 group (53.1%). The most favorable long-term seizure outcome was also noted in the HS ILAE type 1 group. The shortest epilepsy duration was recorded in the HS ILAE type 2 group (mean epilepsy duration=6.64 ± 5.83 years). The completely seizure free rate of patients in all groups declined with an increase in time. Our study for the first time demonstrated a significant correlation between HS ILAE types and long-term postoperative seizure outcome in patients with MTLE due to HS. Therefore, HS ILAE types have predictive value in long-term seizure outcome following epilepsy surgery. Copyright © 2014 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RTG performance on Galileo and Ulysses and Cassini test results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, C.E.; Klee, P.M.

Power output from telemetry for the two Galileo RTGs are shown from the 1989 launch to the recent Jupiter encounter. Comparisons of predicted, measured and required performance are shown. Similar comparisons are made for the RTG on the Ulysses spacecraft which completed its planned mission in 1995. Also presented are test results from small scale thermoelectric modules and full scale converters performed for the Cassini program. The Cassini mission to Saturn is scheduled for an October 1997 launch. Small scale module test results on thermoelectric couples from the qualification and flight production runs are shown. These tests have exceeded 19,000more » hours are continuing to provide increased confidence in the predicted long term performance of the Cassini RTGs. Test results are presented for full scale units both ETGs (E-6, E-7) and RTGs (F-2, F-5) along with mission power predictions. F-5, fueled in 1985, served as a spare for the Galileo and Ulysses missions and plays the same role in the Cassini program. It has successfully completed all acceptance testing. The ten years storage between thermal vacuum tests is the longest ever experienced by an RTG. The data from this test are unique in providing the effects of long term low temperature storage on power output. All ETG and RTG test results to date indicate that the power requirements of the Cassini spacecraft will be met. BOM and EOM power margins of at least five percent are predicted. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Personality as a predictor of weight loss maintenance after surgery for morbid obesity.

PubMed

Larsen, Junilla K; Geenen, Rinie; Maas, Cora; de Wit, Pieter; van Antwerpen, Tiny; Brand, Nico; van Ramshorst, Bert

2004-11-01

Personality characteristics are assumed to underlie health behaviors and, thus, a variety of health outcomes. Our aim was to examine prospectively whether personality traits predict short- and long-term weight loss after laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. Of patients undergoing laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding, 168 (143 women, 25 men, 18 to 58 years old, mean 37 years, preoperative BMI 45.9 +/- 5.6 kg/m(2)) completed the Dutch Personality Questionnaire on average 1.5 years before the operation. The relationship between preoperative personality and short- and long-term postoperative weight loss was determined using multilevel regression analysis. The average weight loss of patients progressively increased to 10 BMI points until 18 months after surgery and stabilized thereafter. A lower baseline BMI, being a man, and a higher educational level were associated with a lower weight loss. None of the personality variables was associated with weight outcome at short-term follow-up. Six of seven personality variables did not predict long-term weight outcome. Egoism was associated with less weight loss in the long-term postoperative period. The effect sizes of the significant predictions were small. None of the personality variables predicted short-term weight outcome, and only one variable showed a small and unexpected association with long-term weight outcome that needs confirmation. This suggests that personality assessment as intake psychological screening is of little use for the prediction of a poor or successful weight outcome after bariatric surgery.

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

2017-08-16

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

Real-time dominant frequency mapping and ablation of dominant frequency sites in atrial fibrillation with left-to-right frequency gradients predicts long-term maintenance of sinus rhythm.

PubMed

Atienza, Felipe; Almendral, Jesús; Jalife, José; Zlochiver, Sharon; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Torrecilla, Esteban G; Arenal, Angel; Kalifa, Jérôme; Fernández-Avilés, Francisco; Berenfeld, Omer

2009-01-01

Spectral analysis identifies localized sites of high-frequency activity during atrial fibrillation (AF). This study sought to determine the effectiveness of using real-time dominant frequency (DF) mapping for radiofrequency ablation of maximal DF (DFmax) sites and elimination of left-to-right frequency gradients in the long-term maintenance of sinus rhythm (SR) in AF patients. DF mapping was performed in 50 patients during ongoing AF (32 paroxysmal, 18 persistent), acquiring a mean of 117 +/- 38 points. Ablation was performed targeting DFmax sites, followed by circumferential pulmonary vein isolation. Ablation significantly reduced DFs (Hz) in the LA (7.9 +/- 1.4 vs. 5.7 +/- 1.3, P <.001), coronary sinus (CS) (5.7 +/- 1.1 vs. 5.3 +/- 1.2, P = .006), and RA (6.3 +/- 1.4 vs. 5.4 +/- 1.3, P <.001) abolishing baseline left-to-right atrial DF gradient (1.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 0.2 +/- 0.9; P <.001). Only a significant reduction in DFs in all chambers with a loss of the left-to-right atrial gradient after ablation was associated with a higher probability of long-term SR maintenance in both paroxysmal and persistent AF patients. After a mean follow-up of 9.3 +/- 5.4 months, 88% of paroxysmal and 56% of persistent AF patients were free of AF (P = .02). Ablation of DFmax sites was associated with a higher probability of remaining both free of arrhythmias (78% vs. 20%; P = .001) and free of AF (88% vs. 30%; P <.001). Radiofrequency ablation leading to elimination of LA-to-RA frequency gradients predicts long-term SR maintenance in AF patients.

A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

PubMed

McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Lazy workers are necessary for long-term sustainability in insect societies

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Ishii, Yasunori; Tada, Koichiro; Kobayashi, Kazuya; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

Optimality theory predicts the maximization of productivity in social insect colonies, but many inactive workers are found in ant colonies. Indeed, the low short-term productivity of ant colonies is often the consequence of high variation among workers in the threshold to respond to task-related stimuli. Why is such an inefficient strategy among colonies maintained by natural selection? Here, we show that inactive workers are necessary for the long-term sustainability of a colony. Our simulation shows that colonies with variable thresholds persist longer than those with invariable thresholds because inactive workers perform the critical function of replacing active workers when they become fatigued. Evidence of the replacement of active workers by inactive workers has been found in ant colonies. Thus, the presence of inactive workers increases the long-term persistence of the colony at the expense of decreasing short-term productivity. Inactive workers may represent a bet-hedging strategy in response to environmental stochasticity. PMID:26880339

Prediction of long-term disability in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Schlaeger, R; D'Souza, M; Schindler, C; Grize, L; Dellas, S; Radue, E W; Kappos, L; Fuhr, P

2012-01-01

Little is known about the predictive value of neurophysiological measures for the long-term course of multiple sclerosis (MS). To prospectively investigate whether combined visual (VEP) and motor evoked potentials (MEP) allow prediction of disability over 14 years. A total of 30 patients with relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS were prospectively investigated with VEPs, MEPs and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at entry (T0) and after 6, 12 and 24 months, and with cranial MRI scans at entry (T2-weighted and gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted images). EDSS was again assessed at year 14 (T4). The association between evoked potential (EP), magnetic resonance (MR) data and EDSS was measured using Spearman's rank correlation. Multivariable linear regression was performed to predict EDSS(T4) as a function of z-transformed EP-latencies(T0). The model was validated using a jack-knife procedure and the potential for improving it by inclusion of additional baseline variables was examined. EDSS values(T4) correlated with the sum of z-transformed EP-latencies(T0) (rho = 0.68, p < 0.0001), but not with MR-parameters(T0). EDSS(T4) as predicted by the formula EDSS(T4) = 4.194 + 0.088 * z-score P100(T0) + 0.071 * z-score CMCT(UE, T0) correlated with the observed values (rho = 0.69, p < 0.0001). Combined EPs allow prediction of long-term disability in small groups of patients with MS. This may have implications for the choice of monitoring methods in clinical trials and for daily practice decisions.

Clinical findings and effect of sodium hydrogen carbonate in patients with glutathione synthetase deficiency.

PubMed

Gündüz, Mehmet; Ünal, Özlem; Kavurt, Sumru; Türk, Emrecan; Mungan, Neslihan Önenli

2016-04-01

Glutathione synthetase (GS) deficiency is a rare inborn error of glutathione (GSH) metabolism manifested by severe metabolic acidosis, hemolytic anemia, neurological problems and massive excretion of pyroglutamic acid (5-oxoproline) in the urine. The disorder has mild, moderate, and severe clinical variants. We aimed to report clinical and laboratory findings of four patients, effect of sodium hydrogen carbonate treatment and long-term follow up of three patients. Urine organic acid analysis was performed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Molecular genetic analysis was performed in three patients, mutation was found in two of them. Enzyme analysis was performed in one patient. Clinical and laboratory findings of four patients were evaluated. One patient died at 4 months old, one patient's growth and development are normal, two patients have developed intellectual disability and seizures in the long term follow up period. Three patients benefited from sodium hydrogen carbonate treatment. The clinical picture varies from patient to patient, so it is difficult to predict the prognosis and the effectiveness of treatment protocols. We reported long term follow up of four patients and demonstrated that sodium hydrogen carbonate is effective for treatment of chronic metabolic acidosis in GS deficieny.

Short- and long-term theory-based predictors of physical activity in women who participated in a weight-management program.

PubMed

Wasserkampf, A; Silva, M N; Santos, I C; Carraça, E V; Meis, J J M; Kremers, S P J; Teixeira, P J

2014-12-01

This study analyzed psychosocial predictors of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT) and evaluated their associations with short- and long-term moderate plus vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and lifestyle physical activity (PA) outcomes in women who underwent a weight-management program. 221 participants (age 37.6 ± 7.02 years) completed a 12-month SDT-based lifestyle intervention and were followed-up for 24 months. Multiple linear regression analyses tested associations between psychosocial variables and self-reported short- and long-term PA outcomes. Regression analyses showed that control constructs of both theories were significant determinants of short- and long-term MVPA, whereas affective and self-determination variables were strong predictors of short- and long-term lifestyle PA. Regarding short-term prediction models, TPB constructs were stronger in predicting MVPA, whereas SDT was more effective in predicting lifestyle PA. For long-term models, both forms of PA were better predicted by SDT in comparison to TPB. These results highlight the importance of comparing health behavior theories to identify the mechanisms involved in the behavior change process. Control and competence constructs are crucial during early adoption of structured PA behaviors, whereas affective and intrinsic sources of motivation are more involved in incidental types of PA, particularly in relation to behavioral maintenance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2017-03-04

Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

2009-01-01

In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

Characterization of Technetium Speciation in Cast Stone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Um, Wooyong; Jung, Hun Bok; Wang, Guohui

2013-11-11

This report describes the results from laboratory tests performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) EM-31 Support Program (EMSP) subtask, “Production and Long-Term Performance of Low Temperature Waste Forms” to provide additional information on technetium (Tc) speciation characterization in the Cast Stone waste form. To support the use of Cast Stone as an alternative to vitrification for solidifying low-activity waste (LAW) and as the current baseline waste form for secondary waste streams at the Hanford Site, additional understanding of Tc speciation in Cast Stone is needed to predict the long-term Tc leachability frommore » Cast Stone and to meet the regulatory disposal-facility performance requirements for the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). Characterizations of the Tc speciation within the Cast Stone after leaching under various conditions provide insights into how the Tc is retained and released. The data generated by the laboratory tests described in this report provide both empirical and more scientific information to increase our understanding of Tc speciation in Cast Stone and its release mechanism under relevant leaching processes for the purpose of filling data gaps and to support the long-term risk and performance assessments of Cast Stone in the IDF at the Hanford Site.« less

Long-Term Prognostic Validity of Talent Selections: Comparing National and Regional Coaches, Laypersons and Novices

PubMed Central

Schorer, Jörg; Rienhoff, Rebecca; Fischer, Lennart; Baker, Joseph

2017-01-01

In most sports, the development of elite athletes is a long-term process of talent identification and support. Typically, talent selection systems administer a multi-faceted strategy including national coach observations and varying physical and psychological tests when deciding who is chosen for talent development. The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of talent selections by varying groups 10 years after they had been conducted. This study used a unique, multi-phased approach. Phase 1 involved players (n = 68) in 2001 completing a battery of general and sport-specific tests of handball ‘talent’ and performance. In Phase 2, national and regional coaches (n = 7) in 2001 who attended training camps identified the most talented players. In Phase 3, current novice and advanced handball players (n = 12 in each group) selected the most talented from short videos of matches played during the talent camp. Analyses compared predictions among all groups with a best model-fit derived from the motor tests. Results revealed little difference between regional and national coaches in the prediction of future performance and little difference in forecasting performance between novices and players. The best model-fit regression by the motor-tests outperformed all predictions. While several limitations are discussed, this study is a useful starting point for future investigations considering athlete selection decisions in talent identification in sport. PMID:28744238

Long-Term Prognostic Validity of Talent Selections: Comparing National and Regional Coaches, Laypersons and Novices.

PubMed

Schorer, Jörg; Rienhoff, Rebecca; Fischer, Lennart; Baker, Joseph

2017-01-01

In most sports, the development of elite athletes is a long-term process of talent identification and support. Typically, talent selection systems administer a multi-faceted strategy including national coach observations and varying physical and psychological tests when deciding who is chosen for talent development. The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of talent selections by varying groups 10 years after they had been conducted. This study used a unique, multi-phased approach. Phase 1 involved players ( n = 68) in 2001 completing a battery of general and sport-specific tests of handball 'talent' and performance. In Phase 2, national and regional coaches ( n = 7) in 2001 who attended training camps identified the most talented players. In Phase 3, current novice and advanced handball players ( n = 12 in each group) selected the most talented from short videos of matches played during the talent camp. Analyses compared predictions among all groups with a best model-fit derived from the motor tests. Results revealed little difference between regional and national coaches in the prediction of future performance and little difference in forecasting performance between novices and players. The best model-fit regression by the motor-tests outperformed all predictions. While several limitations are discussed, this study is a useful starting point for future investigations considering athlete selection decisions in talent identification in sport.

Annotating Diseases Using Human Phenotype Ontology Improves Prediction of Disease-Associated Long Non-coding RNAs.

PubMed

Le, Duc-Hau; Dao, Lan T M

2018-05-23

Recently, many long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been identified and their biological function has been characterized; however, our understanding of their underlying molecular mechanisms related to disease is still limited. To overcome the limitation in experimentally identifying disease-lncRNA associations, computational methods have been proposed as a powerful tool to predict such associations. These methods are usually based on the similarities between diseases or lncRNAs since it was reported that similar diseases are associated with functionally similar lncRNAs. Therefore, prediction performance is highly dependent on how well the similarities can be captured. Previous studies have calculated the similarity between two diseases by mapping exactly each disease to a single Disease Ontology (DO) term, and then use a semantic similarity measure to calculate the similarity between them. However, the problem of this approach is that a disease can be described by more than one DO terms. Until now, there is no annotation database of DO terms for diseases except for genes. In contrast, Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is designed to fully annotate human disease phenotypes. Therefore, in this study, we constructed disease similarity networks/matrices using HPO instead of DO. Then, we used these networks/matrices as inputs of two representative machine learning-based and network-based ranking algorithms, that is, regularized least square and heterogeneous graph-based inference, respectively. The results showed that the prediction performance of the two algorithms on HPO-based is better than that on DO-based networks/matrices. In addition, our method can predict 11 novel cancer-associated lncRNAs, which are supported by literature evidence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of individual differences and manipulated life expectancies on the willingness to engage in sexual coercion.

PubMed

Dunkel, Curtis S; Mathes, Eugene

2011-12-16

The role of the individual difference variables of mate value, short-term and long-term mating preferences, and life history strategy along with the manipulated variable of life expectancy were used to predict differences in the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short-term preferences and long-term preferences were correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at all life expectancies. Life history strategy was correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at only the shortest and longest life expectancies. Most importantly short-term and long-term mating preferences interacted with life expectancy to predict the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short life expectancies increased willingness in individuals with high short-term and low long-term preferences. The results are discussed in terms of the varying theories of sexual coercion with emphasis put on a life history approach.

The GALA study: relationship between galectin-3 serum levels and short- and long-term outcomes of patients with acute heart failure.

PubMed

Miró, Òscar; González de la Presa, Bernardino; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Fernández Bonifacio, Rosa; Möckel, Martin; Mueller, Christian; Casals, Gregori; Sandalinas, Silvia; Llorens, Pere; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Jacob, Javier; Bedini, José Luis; Gil, Víctor

2017-12-01

We tested the hypothesis that early measurement of galectin-3 at the emergency department (ED) during an episode of acute heart failure (AHF) allows predicting short- and long-term outcomes. We performed an exploratory study including 115 patients consecutively diagnosed with AHF in a single ED. Clinical and analytical variables were recorded. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality, and secondary endpoints were 30-day composite outcome (death, rehospitalization or ED reconsultation, whichever first) and 1-year mortality. Seven patients (6.1%) died within 30 days and 43 (37.4%) within 1 year. The 30-day composite endpoint was observed in 21.1% of patients. Galectin-3 was correlated with NT-proBNP and the glomerular filtration rate but not with age and s-cTnI. Measured at time of ED arrival, galectin-3 showed good discriminatory capacity for 30-day mortality (AUC ROC: 0.732; 95% CI 0.512-0.953; p = 0.041) but not for 1-year mortality (0.521; 0.408-0.633; p = 0.722). Patients with galectin-3 concentrations >42 μg/L had an OR = 7.67(95%CI = 1.57-37.53; p = 0.012) for 30-day mortality. Conversely, NT-proBNP only showed predictive capacity for 1-year mortality (0.642; 0.537-0.748; p = 0.014). Patients with NT-proBNP concentrations >5400 ng/L had an OR = 4.34 (95%CI = 1.93-9.77; p < 0.001) for 1-year mortality. These increased short- (galectin-3) and long-term (NT-proBNP) risks remained significant after adjustment for age or renal function. s-cTnI failed in both short- and long term death prediction. No biomarker predicted the short-term composite endpoint. These results suggest that galectin-3 could help to monitor the risk of short-term mortality in unselected patients with AHF attended in the ED.

Long-term predictions using natural analogues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ewing, R.C.

1995-09-01

One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directlymore » in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.« less

What to Do with a Second Chance in Life? Long-Term Experiences of Non-carriers of Huntington's Disease.

PubMed

Winnberg, Elisabeth; Winnberg, Ulrika; Pohlkamp, Lilian; Hagberg, Anette

2018-04-07

Little is known about how people's lives are influenced when going from a 50% risk status of Huntington's disease (HD) to no risk after performing predictive testing. In this study, 20 interviews were conducted to explore the long-term (> 5 years) experiences after receiving predictive test results as a non-carrier of HD. The results showed a broad variety of both positive and negative reactions. The most prominent positive reaction reported was feelings of relief and gratitude, of not carrying the HD mutation for themselves and for their children. Also, the non-carrier status promoted in some individuals' significant life changes such as a wishing to have (more) children, pursuing a career or breaking up from an unhappy relationship. However, negative reactions on their psychological well-being were also described. Some had experienced psychological pressure of needing to do something extraordinary in their lives; others expressed feelings of guilt towards affected or untested siblings, resulting in sadness or clinical depression. The new genetic risk status could generate a need of re-orientation, a process that for some persons took several years to accomplish. The results of the present study show the importance of offering long-term post-result counselling for non-carriers in order to deal with the psychological consequences that may follow predictive testing.

Modelling dynamic transport and adsorption of arsenic in soil-bed filters for long-term performance evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, Sourav; Mondal, Raka; de, Sirshendu; Griffiths, Ian

2017-11-01

Purification of contaminated water following the safe water guidelines while generating sufficiently large throughput is a crucial requirement for the steady supply of safe water to large populations. Adsorption-based filtration processes using a multilayer soil bed has been posed as a viable method to achieve this goal. This work describes the theory of operation and prediction of the long-term behaviour of such a system. The fixed-bed column has a single input of contaminated water from the top and an output from the bottom. As the contaminant passes through the column, it is adsorbed by the medium. Like any other adsorption medium, the filter has a certain lifespan, beyond which the filtrate does not meet the safe limit of drinking water, which is defined as `breakthrough'. A mathematical model is developed that couples the fluid flow through the porous medium to the convective, diffusive and adsorptive transport of the contaminant. The results are validated with experimental observations and the model is then used to predict the breakthrough and lifetime of the filter. The key advantage of this model is that it can predict the long-term behaviour of any adsorption column system for any set of physical characteristics of the system. This worked was supported by the EPSRC Global Challenge Research Fund Institutional Sponsorship 2016.

The transience and nature of cognitive impairments in transient global amnesia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jäger, Theodor; Bäzner, Hansjörg; Kliegel, Matthias; Szabo, Kristina; Hennerici, Michael G

2009-01-01

Transient global amnesia (TGA) is a clinical syndrome characterized by the sudden onset of severe amnesia without concomitant focal neurological symptoms. This meta-analysis of the cognitive characteristics of TGA addressed two main issues. First, we examined the hypothesis that the acute phase of TGA is associated with changes of anterograde and retrograde episodic long-term memory sparing semantic and short-term memory, while we had no clear prediction for potential reductions of executive functions due to the relative lack of previous studies addressing this issue. Second, we analyzed the time-course of changes in cognitive functions throughout three time intervals--acute (0-24 hours after TGA onset), postacute (24 hours to 5 days), and long-term phase (5-30 days)--to reveal whether there is a fast versus a delayed recovery. The results of the meta-analysis on 152 effect sizes from 25 studies showed that TGA is characterized by an extraordinarily large reduction of anterograde (d* = 1.89) and a somewhat milder reduction of retrograde (d* = 1.28) episodic long-term memory. Moreover, our results indicate the existence of additional, nonamnestic cognitive changes during TGA, because executive functions were also diminished (d* = 0.79). Reductions in both anterograde episodic long-term memory and executive function recover slowly, as slightly poorer performance in these cognitive domains can be found in the postacute phase (d*s = 0.32 and 0.44). All cognitive diminutions resolved within the long-term phase, by this calling into question previous reports of poorer performance of TGA patients relative to comparison subjects weeks or months after the attack.

Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool Suite | Transportation

Science.gov Websites

comparisons of different battery-use strategies to predict long-term performance in electric vehicle (EV) and economic and greenhouse gas impacts of different EV scenarios. An illustrated graphic showing thermal . Users can enter their own battery duty cycles for direct simulation to evaluate the impacts of different

Exploring Dynamical Assessments of Affect, Behavior, and Cognition and Math State Test Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Pedro, Maria Ofelia Z.; Snow, Erica L.; Baker, Ryan S.; McNamara, Danielle S.; Heffernan, Neil T.

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that fine-grained aspects of student performance and interaction within educational software are predictive of long-term learning. Machine learning models have been used to provide assessments of affect, behavior, and cognition based on analyses of system log data, estimating the probability of a student's particular…

Long-Term Speech Results of Cleft Palate Speakers with Marginal Velopharyngeal Competence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardin, Mary A.; And Others

1990-01-01

This study of the longitudinal speech performance of 48 cleft palate speakers with marginal velopharyngeal competence, from age 6 to adolescence, found that the adolescent subjects' velopharyngeal status could be predicted based on 2 variables at age 6: the severity ratings of articulation defectiveness and nasality. (Author/JDD)

Predicting thermo-mechanical behaviour of high minor actinide content composite oxide fuel in a dedicated transmutation facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemehov, S. E.; Sobolev, V. P.; Verwerft, M.

2011-09-01

The European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) of the minor actinides (MA), from LWR spent fuel is being developed in the integrated project EUROTRANS within the 6th Framework Program of EURATOM. Two composite uranium-free fuel systems, containing a large fraction of MA, are proposed as the main candidates: a CERCER with magnesia matrix hosting (Pu,MA)O 2-x particles, and a CERMET with metallic molybdenum matrix. The long-term thermal and mechanical behaviour of the fuel under the expected EFIT operating conditions is one of the critical issues in the core design. To make a reliable prediction of long-term thermo-mechanical behaviour of the hottest fuel rods in the lead-cooled version of EFIT with thermal power of 400 MW, different fuel performance codes have been used. This study describes the main results of modelling the thermo-mechanical behaviour of the hottest CERCER fuel rods with the fuel performance code MACROS which indicate that the CERCER fuel residence time can safely reach at least 4-5 effective full power years.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-09-26

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

Chronic hypopituitarism is uncommon in survivors of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage.

PubMed

Hannon, M J; Behan, L A; O'Brien, M M; Tormey, W; Javadpour, M; Sherlock, M; Thompson, C J

2015-01-01

The incidence of hypopituitarism after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is unclear from the conflicting reports in the literature. As routine neuroendocrine screening for hypopituitarism for all patients would be costly and logistically difficult, there is a need for precise data on the frequency of hypopituitarism and on factors which might predict the later development of pituitary dysfunction. We aimed to: (i) Establish the incidence of long-term hypopituitarism in patients with aneurysmal SAH. (ii) Determine whether data from patients' acute admission with SAH could predict the occurrence of long-term hypopituitarism. One hundred patients were studied prospectively from the time of presentation with acute SAH. Plasma cortisol, plasma sodium and a variety of clinical and haemodynamic parameters were sequentially measured for the first 12 days of their acute admission. Forty-one patients then underwent dynamic pituitary testing at median 15 months following SAH (range 7-30 months), with insulin tolerance test (ITT) or, if contraindicated, a glucagon stimulation test (GST) plus short synacthen test (SST). If symptoms of cranial diabetes insipidus (CDI) were present, a water deprivation test was also performed. Forty-one patients attended for follow-up dynamic pituitary testing. Although 14 of 100 had acute glucocorticoid deficiency immediately following SAH, only two of 41 had long-term adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) deficiency and four of 41 had growth hormone (GH) deficiency. None were hypothyroid or gonadotrophin deficient. None had chronic CDI or hyponatraemia. There was no association between acute glucocorticoid deficiency, acute CDI or acute hyponatraemia and long-term pituitary dysfunction. Both anterior and posterior hypopituitarism are very uncommon following SAH and are not predicted by acute clinical, haemodynamic or endocrinological parameters. Routine neuroendocrine screening is not justified in SAH patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early identification of posttraumatic stress following military deployment: Application of machine learning methods to a prospective study of Danish soldiers.

PubMed

Karstoft, Karen-Inge; Statnikov, Alexander; Andersen, Søren B; Madsen, Trine; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R

2015-09-15

Pre-deployment identification of soldiers at risk for long-term posttraumatic stress psychopathology after home coming is important to guide decisions about deployment. Early post-deployment identification can direct early interventions to those in need and thereby prevents the development of chronic psychopathology. Both hold significant public health benefits given large numbers of deployed soldiers, but has so far not been achieved. Here, we aim to assess the potential for pre- and early post-deployment prediction of resilience or posttraumatic stress development in soldiers by application of machine learning (ML) methods. ML feature selection and prediction algorithms were applied to a prospective cohort of 561 Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 to identify unique risk indicators and forecast long-term posttraumatic stress responses. Robust pre- and early postdeployment risk indicators were identified, and included individual PTSD symptoms as well as total level of PTSD symptoms, previous trauma and treatment, negative emotions, and thought suppression. The predictive performance of these risk indicators combined was assessed by cross-validation. Together, these indicators forecasted long term posttraumatic stress responses with high accuracy (pre-deployment: AUC = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.81-0.87), post-deployment: AUC = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.85-0.91)). This study utilized a previously collected data set and was therefore not designed to exhaust the potential of ML methods. Further, the study relied solely on self-reported measures. Pre-deployment and early post-deployment identification of risk for long-term posttraumatic psychopathology are feasible and could greatly reduce the public health costs of war. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The work ability index and single-item question: associations with sick leave, symptoms, and health--a prospective study of women on long-term sick leave.

PubMed

Ahlstrom, Linda; Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Hagberg, Mats; Dellve, Lotta

2010-09-01

This study investigated the association between the work ability index (WAI) and the single-item question on work ability among women working in human service organizations (HSO) currently on long-term sick leave. It also examined the association between the WAI and the single-item question in relation to sick leave, symptoms, and health. Predictive values of the WAI, the changed WAI, the single-item question and the changed single-item question were investigated for degree of sick leave, symptoms, and health. This cohort study comprised 324 HSO female workers on long-term (>60 days) sick leave, with follow-ups at 6 and 12 months. Participants responded to questionnaires. Data on work ability, sick leave, health, and symptoms were analyzed with regard to associations and predictability. Spearman correlation and mixed-model analysis were performed for repeated measurements over time. The study showed a very strong association between the WAI and the single-item question among all participants. Both the WAI and the single-item question showed similar patterns of associations with sick leave, health, and symptoms. The predictive value for the degree of sick leave and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was strong for both the WAI and the single-item question, and slightly less strong for vitality, neck pain, both self-rated general and mental health, and behavioral and current stress. This study suggests that the single-item question on work ability could be used as a simple indicator for assessing the status and progress of work ability among women on long-term sick leave.

ZERODUR®: new stress corrosion data improve strength fatigue prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Kleer, Günter; Rist, Tobias

2015-09-01

The extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® finds more and more applications as sophisticated light weight structures with thin ribs or as thin shells. Quite often they will be subject to higher mechanical loads such as rocket launches or modulating wobbling vibrations. Designing such structures requires calculation methods and data taking into account their long term fatigue. With brittle materials fatigue is not only given by the material itself but to a high extent also by its surface condition and the environmental media especially humidity. This work extends the latest data and information gathered on the bending strength of ZERODUR® with new results concerning its long term behavior under tensile stress. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which combines the influences of time and environmental media is the stress corrosion constant n. Results of the past differ significantly from each other. In order to obtain consistent data the stress corrosion constant has been measured with the method comparing the breakage statistical distributions at different stress increase rates. For better significance the stress increase rate was varied over four orders of magnitude from 0.004 MPa/s to 40 MPa/s. Experiments were performed under normal humidity for long term earth bound applications and under nitrogen atmosphere as equivalent to dry environment occurring for example with telescopes in deserts and also equivalent to vacuum for space applications. As shown earlier the bending strength of diamond ground surfaces of ZERODUR® can be represented with a three parameter Weibull distribution. Predictions on the long term strength change of ZERODUR® structures under tensile stress are possible with reduced uncertainty if Weibull threshold strength values are considered and more reliable stress corrosion constant data are applied.

Effects of long-term representations on free recall of unrelated words

PubMed Central

Katkov, Mikhail; Romani, Sandro

2015-01-01

Human memory stores vast amounts of information. Yet recalling this information is often challenging when specific cues are lacking. Here we consider an associative model of retrieval where each recalled item triggers the recall of the next item based on the similarity between their long-term neuronal representations. The model predicts that different items stored in memory have different probability to be recalled depending on the size of their representation. Moreover, items with high recall probability tend to be recalled earlier and suppress other items. We performed an analysis of a large data set on free recall and found a highly specific pattern of statistical dependencies predicted by the model, in particular negative correlations between the number of words recalled and their average recall probability. Taken together, experimental and modeling results presented here reveal complex interactions between memory items during recall that severely constrain recall capacity. PMID:25593296

Long-term leaching of photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nover, Jessica; Zapf-Gottwick, Renate; Feifel, Carolin; Koch, Michael; Metzger, Jörg W.; Werner, Jürgen H.

2017-08-01

Some photovoltaic module technologies use toxic materials. We report long-term leaching on photovoltaic module pieces of 5 × 5 cm2 size. The pieces are cut out from modules of the four major commercial photovoltaic technologies: crystalline and amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride as well as from copper indium gallium diselenide. To simulate different environmental conditions, leaching occurs at room temperature in three different water-based solutions with pH 3, 7, and 11. No agitation is performed to simulate more representative field conditions. After 360 days, about 1.4% of lead from crystalline silicon module pieces and 62% of cadmium from cadmium telluride module pieces are leached out in acidic solutions. The leaching depends heavily on the pH and the redox potential of the aqueous solutions and it increases with time. The leaching behavior is predictable by thermodynamic stability considerations. These predictions are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Barandiaran, Danny; Hilburn, Kyle; Houser, Paul; Oglesby, Bob; Pan, Ming; Pinker, Rachel; Santanello, Joe; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan;

Long-term exposure to zero-g and the gastro-intestinal tract function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormack, Percial D.

1989-01-01

The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) function is described with emphasis placed on its important role to smooth, delay, and modify sudden fluid load stress applied to the fluid distribution control system in the body. Two basic components of the GIT are considered: stomach dynamics, which involves storage, mixing, and discharge of food into the intestine after addition of gastric juices; and absorption of water and electrolytes from the small intestine. A dynamic model of these components is described, along with performance characteristics computed consecutively for one g and zero g conditions. The main impact of the zero g condition appears to be through a change in osmotic driven transport across the gut wall. A dramatic change in transport characteristics is predicted with implication for many body systems (the immune system in particular) during long-term exposure to zero g. Experimental measurements in zero g are needed to evaluate these predictions.

Operational planning using Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Alison; Kirtman, Benjamin; Harrison, Scott; Gorman, Joe

2016-05-01

The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that can produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics is designing the Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles, such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We evaluated thirty years of forecasts using machine learning to select predictions for an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process.

Predicting the Burden of Revision Knee Arthroplasty: Simulation of a 20-Year Horizon.

PubMed

Guerrero-Ludueña, Richard E; Comas, Mercè; Espallargues, Mireia; Coll, Moisès; Pons, Miquel; Sabatés, Santiago; Allepuz, Alejandro; Castells, Xavier

2016-01-01

To estimate future utilization scenarios for knee arthroplasty (KA) revision in the Spanish National Health System in the short- and long-term and their impact on primary KA utilization. A discrete-event simulation model was built to represent KA utilization for 20 years (2012-2031) in the Spanish National Health System. Data on KA utilization from 1997 to 2011 were obtained from the minimum data set. Three scenarios of future utilization of primary KA (1, fixed number since 2011; 2, fixed age- and sex-adjusted rates since 2011; and 3, projection using a linear regression model) were combined with two prosthesis survival functions (W [worse survival], from a study including primary KA from 1995 to 2000; and B [better survival], from the Catalan Registry of Arthroplasty, including primary KA from 2005 to 2013). The simulation results were analyzed in the short-term (2015) and the long-term (2030). Variations in the number of revisions depended on both the primary utilization rate and the survival function applied, ranging from increases of 8.3% to 31.6% in the short- term and from 38.3% to 176.9% in the long-term, corresponding to scenarios 1-B and 3-W, respectively. The prediction of increases in overall surgeries ranged from 0.1% to 22.3% in the short-term and from 3.7% to 98.2% in the long-term. Projections of the burden of KA provide a quantitative basis for future policy decisions on the concentration of high-complexity procedures, the number of orthopedic surgeons required to perform these procedures, and the resources needed. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Researches on High Accuracy Prediction Methods of Earth Orientation Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.

2015-09-01

The Earth rotation reflects the coupling process among the solid Earth, atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and core of the Earth on multiple spatial and temporal scales. The Earth rotation can be described by the Earth's orientation parameters, which are abbreviated as EOP (mainly including two polar motion components PM_X and PM_Y, and variation in the length of day ΔLOD). The EOP is crucial in the transformation between the terrestrial and celestial reference systems, and has important applications in many areas such as the deep space exploration, satellite precise orbit determination, and astrogeodynamics. However, the EOP products obtained by the space geodetic technologies generally delay by several days to two weeks. The growing demands for modern space navigation make high-accuracy EOP prediction be a worthy topic. This thesis is composed of the following three aspects, for the purpose of improving the EOP forecast accuracy. (1) We analyze the relation between the length of the basic data series and the EOP forecast accuracy, and compare the EOP prediction accuracy for the linear autoregressive (AR) model and the nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) method by performing the least squares (LS) extrapolations. The results show that the high precision forecast of EOP can be realized by appropriate selection of the basic data series length according to the required time span of EOP prediction: for short-term prediction, the basic data series should be shorter, while for the long-term prediction, the series should be longer. The analysis also showed that the LS+AR model is more suitable for the short-term forecasts, while the LS+ANN model shows the advantages in the medium- and long-term forecasts. (2) We develop for the first time a new method which combines the autoregressive model and Kalman filter (AR+Kalman) in short-term EOP prediction. The equations of observation and state are established using the EOP series and the autoregressive coefficients respectively, which are used to improve/re-evaluate the AR model. Comparing to the single AR model, the AR+Kalman method performs better in the prediction of UT1-UTC and ΔLOD, and the improvement in the prediction of the polar motion is significant. (3) Following the successful Earth Orientation Parameter Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC), the Earth Orientation Parameter Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP) was sponsored in 2010. As one of the participants from China, we update and submit the short- and medium-term (1 to 90 days) EOP predictions every day. From the current comparative statistics, our prediction accuracy is on the medium international level. We will carry out more innovative researches to improve the EOP forecast accuracy and enhance our level in EOP forecast.

Fractures as an independent predictor of functional decline in older people: a population-based study with an 8-year follow-up.

PubMed

Piirtola, Maarit; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Räihä, Ismo

2012-01-01

Fractures among older people are common, but there is scant evidence about the impact of fractures on functional decline in an unselected older population. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of lower and upper body fractures on functional performance among older adults during an 8-year follow-up. A population-based cohort of 616 Finnish persons aged 65 and over was followed for up to 8 years, and the association between fractures and the risk of short-term (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline was analyzed. Fractures were categorized according their functional influence on mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) into lower and upper body fractures. Multivariate cumulative logistic regression model was used in the analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, 112 (18%) persons sustained at least one fracture. In the multivariate analyses, lower body fractures predicted both short-term and long-term decline in mobility [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.9-11.7 and COR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2, respectively] and in ADL performance (COR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.6 and COR 4.7, 95% CI 2.0-11.4, respectively). Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during the long-term follow-up (COR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Pre-fracture functional decline and inactivity in leisure time physical exercise were independently associated with the risk of decline in extensive activities. Fractures have an independent influence on the development of functional decline in older persons regardless of the pre-fracture health. Prevention of falls and fractures and improvement of treatment, rehabilitation and follow-up process after fractures are needed. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Materials integrity in microsystems: a framework for a petascale predictive-science-based multiscale modeling and simulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Albert C.; Liu, Wing Kam; Olson, Gregory B.; Belytschko, Ted; Chen, Wei; Shephard, Mark S.; Chung, Yip-Wah; Ghanem, Roger; Voorhees, Peter W.; Seidman, David N.; Wolverton, Chris; Chen, J. S.; Moran, Brian; Freeman, Arthur J.; Tian, Rong; Luo, Xiaojuan; Lautenschlager, Eric; Challoner, A. Dorian

2008-09-01

Microsystems have become an integral part of our lives and can be found in homeland security, medical science, aerospace applications and beyond. Many critical microsystem applications are in harsh environments, in which long-term reliability needs to be guaranteed and repair is not feasible. For example, gyroscope microsystems on satellites need to function for over 20 years under severe radiation, thermal cycling, and shock loading. Hence a predictive-science-based, verified and validated computational models and algorithms to predict the performance and materials integrity of microsystems in these situations is needed. Confidence in these predictions is improved by quantifying uncertainties and approximation errors. With no full system testing and limited sub-system testings, petascale computing is certainly necessary to span both time and space scales and to reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of long-term reliability. This paper presents the necessary steps to develop predictive-science-based multiscale modeling and simulation system. The development of this system will be focused on the prediction of the long-term performance of a gyroscope microsystem. The environmental effects to be considered include radiation, thermo-mechanical cycling and shock. Since there will be many material performance issues, attention is restricted to creep resulting from thermal aging and radiation-enhanced mass diffusion, material instability due to radiation and thermo-mechanical cycling and damage and fracture due to shock. To meet these challenges, we aim to develop an integrated multiscale software analysis system that spans the length scales from the atomistic scale to the scale of the device. The proposed software system will include molecular mechanics, phase field evolution, micromechanics and continuum mechanics software, and the state-of-the-art model identification strategies where atomistic properties are calibrated by quantum calculations. We aim to predict the long-term (in excess of 20 years) integrity of the resonator, electrode base, multilayer metallic bonding pads, and vacuum seals in a prescribed mission. Although multiscale simulations are efficient in the sense that they focus the most computationally intensive models and methods on only the portions of the space time domain needed, the execution of the multiscale simulations associated with evaluating materials and device integrity for aerospace microsystems will require the application of petascale computing. A component-based software strategy will be used in the development of our massively parallel multiscale simulation system. This approach will allow us to take full advantage of existing single scale modeling components. An extensive, pervasive thrust in the software system development is verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). Each component and the integrated software system need to be carefully verified. An UQ methodology that determines the quality of predictive information available from experimental measurements and packages the information in a form suitable for UQ at various scales needs to be developed. Experiments to validate the model at the nanoscale, microscale, and macroscale are proposed. The development of a petascale predictive-science-based multiscale modeling and simulation system will advance the field of predictive multiscale science so that it can be used to reliably analyze problems of unprecedented complexity, where limited testing resources can be adequately replaced by petascale computational power, advanced verification, validation, and UQ methodologies.

Predicting long-term absenteeism from work in construction industry: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hoonakker, Peter; van Duivenbooden, Cor

2012-01-01

In this study we examine whether the Work Ability Index (WAI) has additional value in predicting long-term absenteeism in construction industry. Results of the study show that the WAI has additional value in predicting absenteeism, but that the amount of explained variance is low. This is partly due to the definition of absenteeism in The Netherlands, where this study took place.

Enhanced Predictability Through Lagrangian Observations and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6521 email: brucel @udel.edu Award Number: N0014-05-1-0092 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /slmaps LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is develop the capability to predict the origin and fate of ocean water

Comparing Three Methods of Geometrical Approach in Visualizing Differential Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

KarimiFardinpour, Younes; Gooya, Zahra

2018-01-01

This paper concerns "planes-coordination" and "long-term-prediction" difficulties. These are specifically the case when students attempt to visualize solution curves of autonomous differential equations for predicting the long-term behavior of various initial conditions. To address these issues, a study was conducted in which…

A Kinetic Model for Calcium Dynamics in RAW 264.7 Cells: 2. Knockdown Response and Long-Term Response

PubMed Central

Maurya, Mano Ram; Subramaniam, Shankar

2007-01-01

This article addresses how quantitative models such as the one proposed in the companion article can be used to study cellular network perturbations such as knockdowns and pharmacological perturbations in a predictive manner. Using the kinetic model for cytosolic calcium dynamics in RAW 264.7 cells developed in the companion article, the calcium response to complement 5a (C5a) for the knockdown of seven proteins (C5a receptor; G-β-2; G-α,i-2,3; regulator of G-protein signaling-10; G-protein coupled receptor kinase-2; phospholipase C β-3; arrestin) is predicted and validated against the data from the Alliance for Cellular Signaling. The knockdown responses provide insights into how altered expressions of important proteins in disease states result in intermediate measurable phenotypes. Long-term response and long-term dose response have also been predicted, providing insights into how the receptor desensitization, internalization, and recycle result in tolerance. Sensitivity analysis of long-term response shows that the mechanisms and parameters in the receptor recycle path are important for long-term calcium dynamics. PMID:17483189

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Healy, Alice; Dempsey, Donna L.; McGuire, Kerry M.; Landon, Lauren B.

2018-01-01

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Healy, Alice; Dempsey, Donna L.; Mcguire, Kerry; Landon, Lauren

2017-01-01

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

Differential Impact of Serial Measurement of Nonplatelet Thromboxane Generation on Long-Term Outcome After Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Kakouros, Nikolaos; Gluckman, Tyler J; Conte, John V; Kickler, Thomas S; Laws, Katherine; Barton, Bruce A; Rade, Jeffrey J

2017-11-02

Systemic thromboxane generation, not suppressible by standard aspirin therapy and likely arising from nonplatelet sources, increases the risk of atherothrombosis and death in patients with cardiovascular disease. In the RIGOR (Reduction in Graft Occlusion Rates) study, greater nonplatelet thromboxane generation occurred early compared with late after coronary artery bypass graft surgery, although only the latter correlated with graft failure. We hypothesize that a similar differential association exists between nonplatelet thromboxane generation and long-term clinical outcome. Five-year outcome data were analyzed for 290 RIGOR subjects taking aspirin with suppressed platelet thromboxane generation. Multivariable modeling was performed to define the relative predictive value of the urine thromboxane metabolite, 11-dehydrothromboxane B 2 (11-dhTXB 2 ), measured 3 days versus 6 months after surgery on the composite end point of death, myocardial infarction, revascularization or stroke, and death alone. 11-dhTXB 2 measured 3 days after surgery did not independently predict outcome, whereas 11-dhTXB 2 >450 pg/mg creatinine measured 6 months after surgery predicted the composite end point (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.79; P =0.02) and death (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.90; P =0.01) at 5 years compared with lower values. Additional modeling revealed 11-dhTXB 2 measured early after surgery associated with several markers of inflammation, in contrast to 11-dhTXB 2 measured 6 months later, which highly associated with oxidative stress. Long-term nonplatelet thromboxane generation after coronary artery bypass graft surgery is a novel risk factor for 5-year adverse outcome, including death. In contrast, nonplatelet thromboxane generation in the early postoperative period appears to be driven predominantly by inflammation and did not independently predict long-term clinical outcome. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Predicting long-term neurological outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy: A comparison of the CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models.

PubMed

Honeybul, Stephen; Ho, Kwok M

2016-09-01

Predicting long-term neurological outcomes after severe traumatic brain (TBI) is important, but which prognostic model in the context of decompressive craniectomy has the best performance remains uncertain. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients who had severe TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy between 2004 and 2014, in the two neurosurgical centres in Perth, Western Australia. Severe disability, vegetative state, or death were defined as unfavourable neurological outcomes. Area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) and slope and intercept of the calibration curve were used to assess discrimination and calibration of the CRASH (Corticosteroid-Randomisation-After-Significant-Head injury) and IMPACT (International-Mission-For-Prognosis-And-Clinical-Trial) models, respectively. Of the 319 patients included in the study, 119 (37%) had unfavourable neurological outcomes at 18-month after decompressive craniectomy for severe TBI. Both CRASH (AUROC 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.90) and IMPACT full-model (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.89) were similar in discriminating between favourable and unfavourable neurological outcome at 18-month after surgery (p=0.690 for the difference in AUROC derived from the two models). Although both models tended to over-predict the risks of long-term unfavourable outcome, the IMPACT model had a slightly better calibration than the CRASH model (intercept of the calibration curve=-4.1 vs. -5.7, and log likelihoods -159 vs. -360, respectively), especially when the predicted risks of unfavourable outcome were <80%. Both CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models were good in discriminating between favourable and unfavourable long-term neurological outcome for patients with severe TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy, but the calibration of the IMPACT full-model was better than the CRASH model. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn; Wang, Yuankun

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the modelmore » are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. • Chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed. • The forecast results of the mid and long-term runoff in six stations are accurate.« less

Earth Orientation Products - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

Earth Orientation Products Daily Solutions Weekly Solutions Long-term Delta T GPS-based Products VLBI report for contributed series. Long-term Delta T Monthly determination of Delta T (TT - UT1) since 1973 and long-term predictions. Determinations of Delta T are updated approximately quarterly, and long

Predictive protocol of flocks with small-world connection pattern.

PubMed

Zhang, Hai-Tao; Chen, Michael Z Q; Zhou, Tao

2009-01-01

By introducing a predictive mechanism with small-world connections, we propose a new motion protocol for self-driven flocks. The small-world connections are implemented by randomly adding long-range interactions from the leader to a few distant agents, namely, pseudoleaders. The leader can directly affect the pseudoleaders, thereby influencing all the other agents through them efficiently. Moreover, these pseudoleaders are able to predict the leader's motion several steps ahead and use this information in decision making towards coherent flocking with more stable formation. It is shown that drastic improvement can be achieved in terms of both the consensus performance and the communication cost. From the engineering point of view, the current protocol allows for a significant improvement in the cohesion and rigidity of the formation at a fairly low cost of adding a few long-range links embedded with predictive capabilities. Significantly, this work uncovers an important feature of flocks that predictive capability and long-range links can compensate for the insufficiency of each other. These conclusions are valid for both the attractive and repulsive swarm model and the Vicsek model.

Response to Intervention as a Predictor of Long-Term Reading Outcomes in Children with Dyslexia.

PubMed

van der Kleij, Sanne W; Segers, Eliane; Groen, Margriet A; Verhoeven, Ludo

2017-08-01

The goal of this study was to investigate how growth during a phonics-based intervention, as well as reading levels at baseline testing, predicted long-term reading outcomes of children with dyslexia. Eighty Dutch children with dyslexia who had completed a 50-week phonics-based intervention in grade 4 were tested in grade 5 on both word and pseudoword (following regular Dutch orthographic patterns) reading efficiency and compared to 93 typical readers. In grade 5 the children with dyslexia were still significantly slower in word and pseudoword reading than their typically developing peers. Results showed that long-term pseudoword reading in the group with dyslexia was predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest and growth in pseudoword reading during the intervention, which was itself predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest. This was not the case for word reading. We found that long-term word reading was directly predicted from pretest word reading, and indirectly via pretest pseudoword reading, via growth in pseudoword and word reading. It can be concluded that pseudoword reading is not only a good indicator of severity of reading difficulties in children with dyslexia, it is also an indicator of who will profit from intervention in the long-term. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

Long-Term Outcomes of Laser Prostatectomy for Storage Symptoms: Comparison of Serial 5-Year Followup Data between High Performance System Photoselective Vaporization and Holmium Laser Enucleation of the Prostate.

PubMed

Cho, Min Chul; Song, Won Hoon; Park, Juhyun; Cho, Sung Yong; Jeong, Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June; Paick, Jae-Seung; Son, Hwancheol

2018-06-01

We compared long-term storage symptom outcomes between photoselective laser vaporization of the prostate with a 120 W high performance system and holmium laser enucleation of the prostate. We also determined factors influencing postoperative improvement of storage symptoms in the long term. Included in our study were 266 men, including 165 treated with prostate photoselective laser vaporization using a 120 W high performance system and 101 treated with holmium laser enucleation of the prostate, on whom 60-month followup data were available. Outcomes were assessed serially 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months postoperatively using the International Prostate Symptom Score, uroflowmetry and the serum prostate specific antigen level. Postoperative improvement in storage symptoms was defined as a 50% or greater reduction in the subtotal storage symptom score at each followup visit after surgery compared to baseline. Improvements in frequency, urgency, nocturia, subtotal storage symptom scores and the quality of life index were maintained up to 60 months after photoselective laser vaporization or holmium laser enucleation of the prostate. There was no difference in the degree of improvement in storage symptoms or the percent of patients with postoperative improvement in storage symptoms between the 2 groups throughout the long-term followup. However, the holmium laser group showed greater improvement in voiding symptoms and quality of life than the laser vaporization group. On logistic regression analysis a higher baseline subtotal storage symptom score and a higher BOOI (Bladder Outlet Obstruction Index) were the factors influencing the improvement in storage symptoms 5 years after prostate photoselective laser vaporization or holmium laser enucleation. Our serial followup data suggest that storage symptom improvement was maintained throughout the long-term postoperative period for prostate photoselective laser vaporization with a 120 W high performance system and holmium laser enucleation without any difference between the 2 surgeries. Also, more severe storage symptoms at baseline and a more severe BOOI predicted improved storage symptoms in the long term after each surgery. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a risk model for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: The IDEA-BIO Study.

PubMed

van Boven, Nick; van Domburg, Ron T; Kardys, Isabella; Umans, Victor A; Akkerhuis, K Martijn; Lenzen, Mattie J; Valgimigli, Marco; Daemen, Joost; Zijlstra, Felix; Boersma, Eric; van Geuns, Robert-Jan

2018-03-01

We aimed to develop a model to predict long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), to aid in selecting patients with sufficient life expectancy to benefit from bioabsorbable scaffolds. Clinical trials are currently designed to demonstrate superiority of bioabsorbable scaffolds over metal devices up to 5 years after implantation. From 2000 to 2011, 19.532 consecutive patients underwent PCI in a tertiary referral hospital. Patients were randomly (2:1) divided into a training (N = 13,090) and validation (N = 6,442) set. Cox regression was used to identify determinants of long-term mortality in the training set and used to develop a risk model. Model performance was studied in the training and validation dataset. Median age was 63 years (IQR 54-72) and 72% were men. Median follow-up was 3.6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.4-6.8). The ratio elective vs. non-elective PCIs was 42/58. During 88,620 patient-years of follow-up, 3,156 deaths occurred, implying an incidence rate of 35.6 per 1,000. Estimated 5-year mortality was 12.9%.Regression analysis revealed age, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, renal insufficiency, prior myocardial infarction, PCI indication, lesion location, number of diseased vessels and cardiogenic shock at presentation as determinants of mortality. The long-term risk model showed good discrimination in the training and validation sets (c-indices 0.76 and 0.74), whereas calibration was appropriate. A simple risk model, containing 9 baseline clinical and angiographic variables effectively predicts long-term mortality after PCI and may possibly be used to select suitable patients for bioabsorbable scaffolds. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Double bypass for inoperable pancreatic malignancy at laparotomy: postoperative complications and long-term outcome

PubMed Central

Ausania, F; Vallance, AE; Manas, DM; Prentis, JM; Snowden, CP; White, SA; Charnley, RM; French, JJ; Jaques, BC

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Between 4% and 13% of patients with operable pancreatic malignancy are found unresectable at the time of surgery. Double bypass is a good option for fit patients but it is associated with high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this study was to identify pre-operatively which patients undergoing double bypass are at high risk of complications and to assess their long-term outcome. METHODS Of the 576 patients undergoing pancreatic resections between 2006 and 2011, 50 patients who underwent a laparotomy for a planned pancreaticoduodenectomy had a double bypass procedure for inoperable disease. Demographic data, risk factors for postoperative complications and pre-operative anaesthetic assessment data including the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were collected. RESULTS Fifty patients (33 men and 17 women) were included in the study. The median patient age was 64 years (range: 39–79 years). The complication rate was 50% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 4%. The P-POSSUM physiology subscore and low anaerobic threshold at CPET were significantly associated with postoperative complications (p=0.005 and p=0.016 respectively) but they were unable to predict them. Overall long-term survival was significantly shorter in patients with postoperative complications (9 vs 18 months). Postoperative complications were independently associated with poorer long-term survival (p=0.003, odds ratio: 3.261). CONCLUSIONS P-POSSUM and CPET are associated with postoperative complications but the possibility of using them for risk prediction requires further research. However, postoperative complications following double bypass have a significant impact on long-term survival and this type of surgery should therefore only be performed in specialised centres. PMID:23131226

Pretest Scores Uniquely Predict 1-Year-Delayed Performance in a Simulation-Based Mastery Course for Central Line Insertion.

PubMed

Diederich, Emily; Thomas, Laura; Mahnken, Jonathan; Lineberry, Matthew

2018-06-01

Within simulation-based mastery learning (SBML) courses, there is inconsistent inclusion of learner pretesting, which requires considerable resources and is contrary to popular instructional frameworks. However, it may have several benefits, including its direct benefit as a form of deliberate practice and its facilitation of more learner-specific subsequent deliberate practice. We consider an unexplored potential benefit of pretesting: its ability to predict variable long-term learner performance. Twenty-seven residents completed an SBML course in central line insertion. Residents were tested on simulated central line insertion precourse, immediately postcourse, and after between 64 and 82 weeks. We analyzed pretest scores' prediction of delayed test scores, above and beyond prediction by program year, line insertion experiences in the interim, and immediate posttest scores. Pretest scores related strongly to delayed test scores (r = 0.59, P = 0.01; disattenuated ρ = 0.75). The number of independent central lines inserted also related to year-delayed test scores (r = 0.44, P = 0.02); other predictors did not discernibly relate. In a regression model jointly predicting delayed test scores, pretest was a significant predictor (β = 0.487, P = 0.011); number of independent insertions was not (β = 0.234, P = 0.198). This study suggests that pretests can play a major role in predicting learner variance in learning gains from SBML courses, thus facilitating more targeted refresher training. It also exposes a risk in SBML courses that learners who meet immediate mastery standards may be incorrectly assumed to have equal long-term learning gains.

Mitigation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on the high power input coupler of a superconducting RF module, by comprehensive warm aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chaoen; Chang, Lung-Hai; Chang, Mei-Hsia; Chen, Ling-Jhen; Chung, Fu-Tsai; Lin, Ming-Chyuan; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lo, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Chi-Lin; Yeh, Meng-Shu; Yu, Tsung-Chi

2017-11-01

Excitation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on cold surfaces of the high power input coupler in a SRF module poses the highest challenge for reliable SRF operation under high average RF power. This could prevent the light source SRF module from being operated with a desired high beam current. Off-line long-term reliability tests have been conducted for the newly constructed 500-MHz SRF KEKB type modules at an accelerating RF voltage of 1.6-MV to enable prediction of their operational reliability in the 3-GeV Taiwan Photon Source (TPS), since prediction from mere production performance by conventional horizontal test is presently unreliable. As expected, operational difficulties resulting from multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation, have been identified in the course of long-term reliability test. Our present hypothesis is that gas condensation can be slowed down by preserving the vacuum pressure at the power coupler close to that reached just after its cool down to liquid helium temperatures. This is achievable by reduction of the power coupler out-gassing rate through comprehensive warm aging. Its feasibility and effectiveness has been experimentally verified in a second long term reliability test. Our success opens the possibility to operate the SRF module free of multipacting trouble and opens a new direction to improve the operational performance of next generation SRF modules in light sources with high beam currents.

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 and 90 degrees. Analytical predictions of long term compliance for 30 and 60 degrees laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

2015-03-01

Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient risk factors for long-term mortality. Special attention and consideration should be given to these "at risk" patient sub-populations.

Early and long term anamnestic response to HBV booster dose among fully vaccinated Egyptian children during infancy.

PubMed

Salama, Iman I; Sami, Samia M; Said, Zeinab N; Salama, Somaia I; Rabah, Thanaa M; Abdel-Latif, Ghada A; Elmosalami, Dalia M; Saleh, Rehan M; Abdel Mohsin, Aida M; Metwally, Ammal M; Hassanin, Amal I; Emam, Hanaa M; Hemida, Samia A; Elserougy, Safaa M; Shaaban, Fatma A; Fouad, Walaa A; Mohsen, Amira; El-Sayed, Manal H

2018-04-05

To evaluate early and long term anamnestic response to a booster dose of HBV vaccine among non-seroprotected children. A national community based project was carried out on 3600 children aged 9 months to 16 years, fully vaccinated during infancy. They were recruited from 6 governorates representing Egypt. It revealed that 1535 children (42.8%) had non sero-protective anti-HBs (<10 IU/L) and were HBsAg or anti-HBc negative. A challenging dose of 10 μg of mono-valent Euvax HBV vaccine was given to 1121/1535 children. Quantitative assessment of anti-HBs was performed to detect early (2-4 weeks) and long term (one year) anamnestic responses. Early anamnestic response developed among 967/1070 children (90.3%).Children having detectable anti-HBs (1-9 IU/L) significantly developed early anamnestic response (90%) compared to 85% with undetectable anti-HBs (<1 IU/L), P < 0.001. Multiple logistic analysis revealed that undetectable anti-HBs, living in rural residence and children aged 15-16 years were the most significant predicting risk factors for the absence of early anamnestic response (<10 IU/L), with AOR 2.7, 2.7 & 4.7 respectively. After one year, long term anamnestic response was absent among 15% of children who previously showed early response. Poor early anamnestic response and undetectable pre-booster anti-HBs were the significant predicting risk factors for absent long term anamnestic response, with AOR 18.7 & 2.7 respectively. Immunological memory for HBV vaccine outlasts the presence of anti- HBs and HBV vaccination program provides effective long term protection even in children showing waning or undetectable concentrations of anti-HBs. This signifies no need for a booster dose especially to healthy children. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brain and cognitive-behavioural development after asphyxia at term birth.

PubMed

de Haan, Michelle; Wyatt, John S; Roth, Simon; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh; Gadian, David; Mishkin, Mortimer

2006-07-01

Perinatal asphyxia occurs in approximately 1-6 per 1000 live full-term births. Different patterns of brain damage can result, though the relation of these patterns to long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome remains under investigation. The hippocampus is one brain region that can be damaged (typically not in isolation), and this site of damage has been implicated in two different long-term outcomes, cognitive memory impairment and the psychiatric disorder schizophrenia. Factors in addition to the acute episode of asphyxia likely contribute to these specific outcomes, making prediction difficult. Future studies that better document long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome, quantitatively identify patterns of brain injury over development and consider additional variables that may modulate the impact of asphyxia on cognitive and behavioural function will forward the goals of predicting long-term outcome and understanding the mechanisms by which it unfolds.

Computer model to simulate ionizing radiation effects correlates with experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Poch, Antoni

Exposure to radiation from high energy protons and particles with ionizing properties is a major challenge for long-term space missions. The specific effect of such radiation on hematopoietic cells is still not fully understood. A number of experiments have been conducted on ground and in space. Those experiments on one hand, measure the extent of damage on blood markers. On the other hand, they intend to quantify the correlation between dose and energy from the radiation particles, with their ability to impair the hematopoietic stem and progenitor function. We present a computer model based on a neural network that intends to assess the relationship between dose, energy and number of hits on a particular cell, to the damage incurred to the human marrow cells. Calibration of the network is performed with the existing experimental data available in bibliography. Different sources of ionizing radiation at different doses (0-90 cGy) and along different patterns of a long-term exposure scenarios are simulated. Results are shown for a continuous variation of doses and are compared with specific data available in the literature. Some predictions are inferred for long-term scenarios of spaceflight, and the risk of jeopardizing a mission due to a major disfunction of the bone marrow is calculated. The method has proved successful in reproducing specific experimental data. We also discuss the significance and validity of the predicted ionizing radiation effects in situations such as long-term missions for a continuous range of dose.

Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

PubMed

Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

2006-02-01

The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

The Long Shadow of Rivalry: Rivalry Motivates Performance Today and Tomorrow.

PubMed

Pike, Brian E; Kilduff, Gavin J; Galinsky, Adam D

2018-05-01

Research has established that competing head to head against a rival boosts motivation and performance. The present research investigated whether rivalry can affect performance over time and in contests without rivals. We examined the long-term effects of rivalry through archival analyses of postseason performance in multiple high-stakes sports contexts: National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I Men's Basketball and the major U.S. professional sports leagues: National Basketball Association (NBA), National Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), and National Hockey League (NHL). Econometric analyses revealed that postseason performance of a focal team's rival in year N predicted that focal team's postseason performance in year N + 1. Follow-up analyses suggested that the performance boost was especially pronounced when one's rival won the previous tournament. These results establish that rivalry has a long shadow: A rival team's success exerts such a powerful motivational force that it drives performance outside of direct competition with one's rival and even after a significant delay.

LONG TERM OPERATION ISSUES FOR ELECTRICAL CABLE SYSTEMS IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fifield, Dr Leonard S; Duckworth, Robert C; Glass III, Dr. Samuel W.

Nuclear power plants contain hundreds of kilometers of electrical cables including cables used for power, for instrumentation, and for control. It is essential that safety-related cable systems continue to perform following a design-basis event. Wholesale replacement of electrical cables in existing plants facing licensing period renewal is both impractical and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore important to understand the long term aging of cable materials to have confidence that aged cables will perform when needed. It is equally important in support of cable aging management to develop methods to evaluate the health of installed cables and inform selective cable replacement decisions.more » The most common insulation materials for electrical cables in nuclear power plants are cross-linked polyethylene and ethylene-propylene rubber. The mechanical properties of these materials degrade over time in the presence of environmental stresses including heat, gamma irradiation, and moisture. Mechanical degradation of cable insulation beyond a certain threshold is unacceptable because it can lead to insulation cracking, exposure of energized conductors, arcing and burning or loss of the ability of the cable system to function during a design-basis accident. While thermal-, radiation-, and moisture-related degradation of polymer insulation materials has been extensively studied over the last few decades, questions remain regarding the long-term performance of cable materials in nuclear plant-specific environments. Identified knowledge gaps include an understanding of the temperature-dependence of activation energies for thermal damage and an understanding of the synergistic effects of radiation and thermal stress on polymer degradation. Many of the outstanding questions in the aging behavior of cable materials relate to the necessity of predicting long-term field degradation using accelerated aging results from the laboratory. Materials degrade faster under more extreme conditions, but extension of behavior to long term degradation under more mild conditions, such as those experienced by most installed cables in nuclear power plants, is complicated by the fact that different degradation mechanisms may be involved in extreme and mild scenarios. The discrepancy in predicted results from short term, more extreme exposure and actual results from longer term, more mild exposures can be counter intuitive. For instance, due to the attenuation of oxidation penetration in material samples rapidly aged through exposure to high temperatures, the bulk of the samples may be artificially protected from thermal aging. In another example, simultaneous exposure of cable insulation material to heat and radiation may actually lead to less damage at higher temperatures than may be observed at lower temperatures. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the United States (US) Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy is funding research to increase the predictive understanding of electrical cable material aging and degradation in existing nuclear power plants in support of continued safe operation of plants beyond their initial license periods. This research includes the evaluation and development of methods to assess installed cable condition.« less

A method for estimating the performance of photovoltaic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, D. R.; Klein, S. A.; Beckman, W. A.

A method is presented for predicting the long-term average performance of photovoltaic systems having storage batteries and subject to any diurnal load profile. The monthly-average fraction of the load met by the system is estimated from array parameters and monthly-average meteorological data. The method is based on radiation statistics, and utilizability, and can account for variability in the electrical demand as well as for the variability in solar radiation.

Dispersion of Self-Propelled Rods Undergoing Fluctuation-Driven Flips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Daisuke; Braunschweig, Adam B.; Zhang, Jun; Shelley, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Synthetic microswimmers may someday perform medical and technological tasks, but predicting their motion and dispersion is challenging. Here we show that chemically propelled rods tend to move on a surface along large circles but curiously show stochastic changes in the sign of the orbit curvature. By accounting for fluctuation-driven flipping of slightly curved rods, we obtain analytical predictions for the ensemble behavior in good agreement with our experiments. This shows that minor defects in swimmer shape can yield major long-term effects on macroscopic dispersion.

Forward Inferences: From Activation to Long-Term Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klin, Celia M.; Murray, John D.; Levine, William H.; Guzman, Alexandria E.

1999-01-01

Investigates the extent to which forward inferences are activated and encoded during reading, as well as their prevalence and their time course. Finds that inferences were encoded and retained in working memory in both high- and low-predictability conditions, and that high-predictability forward inferences were encoded into long-term memory.…

Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training .

PubMed

Patterson, Fiona; Lopes, Safiatu; Harding, Stephen; Vaux, Emma; Berkin, Liz; Black, David

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to follow up a sample of physicians who began core medical training (CMT) in 2009. This paper examines the long-term validity of CMT and GP selection methods in predicting performance in the Membership of Royal College of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations. We performed a longitudinal study, examining the extent to which the GP and CMT selection methods (T1) predict performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations (T2). A total of 2,569 applicants from 2008-09 who completed CMT and GP selection methods were included in the study. Looking at MRCP(UK) part 1, part 2 written and PACES scores, both CMT and GP selection methods show evidence of predictive validity for the outcome variables, and hierarchical regressions show the GP methods add significant value to the CMT selection process. CMT selection methods predict performance in important outcomes and have good evidence of validity; the GP methods may have an additional role alongside the CMT selection methods. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

Natural Analogues - One Way to Help Build Public Confidence in the Predicted Performance of a Mined Geologic Repository for Nuclear Waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuckless, J. S.

2002-02-26

The general public needs to have a way to judge the predicted long-term performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The applicability and reliability of mathematical models used to make this prediction are neither easily understood nor accepted by the public. Natural analogues can provide the average person with a tool to assess the predicted performance and other scientific conclusions. For example, hydrologists with the Yucca Mountain Project have predicted that most of the water moving through the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move through the host rock and around tunnels. Thus, seepage intomore » tunnels is predicted to be a small percentage of available infiltration. This hypothesis can be tested experimentally and with some quantitative analogues. It can also be tested qualitatively using a variety of analogues such as (1) well-preserved Paleolithic to Neolithic paintings in caves and rock shelters, (2) biological remains preserved in caves and rock shelters, and (3) artifacts and paintings preserved in man-made underground openings. These examples can be found in materials that are generally available to the non-scientific public and can demonstrate the surprising degree of preservation of fragile and easily destroyed materials for very long periods of time within the unsaturated zone.« less

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

Experimental characterization and modeling of isothermal and nonisothermal physical aging in glassy polymer films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yunlong

This dissertation focuses on nonisothermal physical aging of polymers from both experimental and theoretical aspects. The study concentrates on pure polymers rather than fiber-reinforced composites; this step removes several complicating factors to simplify the study. It is anticipated that the findings of this work can then be applied to composite materials applications. The physical aging tests in this work are performed using a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA). The viscoelastic response of glassy polymers under various loading and thermal histories are observed as stress-strain data at a series of time points. The first stage of the experimental work involves the characterization of the isothermal physical aging behavior of two advanced thermoplastics. The second stage conducts tests on the same materials with varying thermal histories and with long-term test duration. This forms the basis to assess and modify a nonisothermal physical aging model (KAHR-ate model). Based on the experimental findings, the KAHR-ate model has been revised by new correlations between aging shift factors and volume response; this revised model performed well in predicting the nonisothermal physical aging behavior of glassy polymers. In the work on isothermal physical aging, short-term creep and stress relaxation tests were performed at several temperatures within 15-35°C below the glass transition temperature (Tg) at various aging times, using the short-term test method established by Struik. Stress and strain levels were such that the materials remained in the linear viscoelastic regime. These curves were then shifted together to determine momentary master curves and shift rates. In order to validate the obtained isothermal physical aging behavior, the results of creep and stress relaxation testing were compared and shown to be consistent with one another using appropriate interconversion of the viscoelastic material functions. Time-temperature superposition of the master curves was also performed. The temperature shift factors and aging shift rates for both PEEK and PPS were consistent for both creep and stress relaxation test results. Nonisothermal physical aging was monitored by sequential short-term creep tests after a series of temperature jumps; the resulting strain histories were analyzed to determine aging shift factors (ate) for each of the creep tests. The nonisothermal aging response was predicted using the KAHR-ate model, which combines the KAHR model of volume recovery with a suitable linear relationship between aging shift factors and specific volume. The KAHR-ate model can be utilized to both predict aging response and to determine necessary model parameters from a set of aging shift factor data. For the PEEK and PPS materials considered in the current study, predictions of mechanical response were demonstrated to be in good agreement with the experimental results for several complicated thermal histories. In addition to short-term nonisothermal aging, long-term creep tests under identical thermal conditions were also analyzed. Effective time theory was unitized to predict long-term response under both isothermal and nonisothermal temperature histories. The long-term compliance after a series of temperature changes was predicted by the KAHR- ate model, and the theoretical predictions and experimental data showed good agreement for various thermal histories. Lastly, physical aging behavior of PPS near the glass transition temperature was investigated, in order to observe the mechanical response in the process of the evolution of the material into equilibrium. At several temperatures near Tg, the time need to reach equilibrium were determined by the creep test results at various aging times. In addition to isothermal physical aging, mechanical shift factors in the period of approaching equilibrium at a common temperature after temperature up-jumps and down-jumps are monitored from creep tests; prior to these temperature jumps, the materials were aged to reach equilibrium states. From these tests, asymmetry of approaching equilibrium phenomenon in ate was observed, which is first-time reported in the literature. This finding shows the similarity between the thermodynamic and mechanical properties during structural relaxation. This work will lead to improved understanding of the viscoelastic behavior of glassy polymers, which is important for better understanding and design of PMCs in elevated temperature applications. With the above findings, this dissertation deals with nonisothermal physical aging of glassy polymers, including both experimental characterization and constructing a framework for predictions of mechanical behavior of polymeric materials under complicated thermal conditions. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Investigation of Methods to Predict Thermal Stratification and Its Effect on Solar Energy System Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

International Conference, Vol 1, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (November 1975), pp 508-510. + C. W. J. Van Koppen, L. S. Fischer, and A. Dijkmans ...S. Fischer, and A. Dijkmans , "Stratification Effects in te Short and Long Term Storage of Solar Heat," Proceed- ings, 1978 meeting of Amercan Sec

Poor Fine-Motor and Visuospatial Skills Predict Persistence of Pediatric-Onset Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder into Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloch, Michael H.; Sukhodolsky, Denis G.; Dombrowski, Philip A.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Craiglow, Brittany G.; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Leckman, James F.; Peterson, Bradley S.; Schultz, Robert T.

2011-01-01

Background: Half of pediatric-onset OCD cases remit by adulthood. Studies have demonstrated that initial response to pharmacotherapy, age of onset, prominent hoarding symptoms, and the presence of comorbid tic disorders are associated with long-term outcome. Our goal was to examine the association between childhood performance on…

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 2) : Blue Ridge and Western Piedmont provinces.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

2015-01-01

Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long-term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short-term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short-term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 deg and 90 deg. In addition, analytical predictions of long-term compliance for 30 deg and 60 deg laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

Multiscale Shannon entropy and its application in the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Rongbao

2017-10-01

In this paper, we perform a multiscale entropy analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index using the Shannon entropy. The stock index shows the characteristic of multi-scale entropy that caused by noise in the market. The entropy is demonstrated to have significant predictive ability for the stock index in both long-term and short-term, and empirical results verify that noise does exist in the market and can affect stock price. It has important implications on market participants such as noise traders.

A panel to predict long-term outcome of infliximab therapy for patients with ulcerative colitis.

PubMed

Arias, Maria Theresa; Vande Casteele, Niels; Vermeire, Séverine; de Buck van Overstraeten, Anthony; Billiet, Thomas; Baert, Filip; Wolthuis, Albert; Van Assche, Gert; Noman, Maja; Hoffman, Ilse; D'Hoore, Andre; Gils, Ann; Rutgeerts, Paul; Ferrante, Marc

2015-03-01

Infliximab is effective for patients with refractory ulcerative colitis (UC), but few factors have been identified that predict long-term outcome of therapy. We aimed to identify a panel of markers associated with outcome of infliximab therapy to help physicians make personalized treatment decisions. We collected data from the first 285 patients with refractory UC (41% female; median age, 39 y) treated with infliximab before July 2012 at University Hospitals Leuven, in Belgium. We performed a Cox regression analysis to identify independent factors that predicted relapse-free and colectomy-free survival, and used these factors to create a panel of markers (risk panel). During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 61% of patients relapsed and 20% required colectomy. Independent predictors of relapse-free survival included short-term complete clinical response (odds ratio [OR], 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35-5.97; P < .001), mucosal healing (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.17-2.98; P = .009), and absence of atypical perinuclear antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (pANCA) (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.23-3.12; P = .005). Independent predictors of colectomy-free survival included short-term clinical response (OR, 7.74; 95% CI, 2.76-21.68; P < .001), mucosal healing (OR, 4.02; 95% CI, 1.16-13.97; P = .028), baseline level of C-reactive protein (CRP) of 5 mg/L or less (OR, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.26-6.89; P = .012), and baseline level of albumin of 35 g/L or greater (OR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.12-8.22; P = .029). Based on serologic analysis of a subgroup of 112 patients, levels of infliximab greater than 2.5 μg/mL at week 14 of treatment predicted relapse-free survival (P < .001) and colectomy-free survival (P = .034). A risk panel that included levels of pANCA, CRP, albumin, clinical response, and mucosal healing identified patients at risk for UC relapse or colectomy (both P < .001). Clinical response and mucosal healing were confirmed as independent predictors of long-term outcome from infliximab therapy in patients with UC. We identified additional factors (levels of pANCA, CRP, and albumin) to create a risk panel that predicts long-term outcomes of therapy. Serum levels of infliximab at week 14 of treatment also were associated with patient outcomes. Our risk panel and short-term serum levels of infliximab therefore might be used to guide therapy. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

PubMed

Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

2017-09-01

Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

Accurate Prediction of Protein Contact Maps by Coupling Residual Two-Dimensional Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory with Convolutional Neural Networks.

PubMed

Hanson, Jack; Paliwal, Kuldip; Litfin, Thomas; Yang, Yuedong; Zhou, Yaoqi

2018-06-19

Accurate prediction of a protein contact map depends greatly on capturing as much contextual information as possible from surrounding residues for a target residue pair. Recently, ultra-deep residual convolutional networks were found to be state-of-the-art in the latest Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction techniques (CASP12, (Schaarschmidt et al., 2018)) for protein contact map prediction by attempting to provide a protein-wide context at each residue pair. Recurrent neural networks have seen great success in recent protein residue classification problems due to their ability to propagate information through long protein sequences, especially Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells. Here we propose a novel protein contact map prediction method by stacking residual convolutional networks with two-dimensional residual bidirectional recurrent LSTM networks, and using both one-dimensional sequence-based and two-dimensional evolutionary coupling-based information. We show that the proposed method achieves a robust performance over validation and independent test sets with the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC)>0.95 in all tests. When compared to several state-of-the-art methods for independent testing of 228 proteins, the method yields an AUC value of 0.958, whereas the next-best method obtains an AUC of 0.909. More importantly, the improvement is over contacts at all sequence-position separations. Specifically, a 8.95%, 5.65% and 2.84% increase in precision were observed for the top L∕10 predictions over the next best for short, medium and long-range contacts, respectively. This confirms the usefulness of ResNets to congregate the short-range relations and 2D-BRLSTM to propagate the long-range dependencies throughout the entire protein contact map 'image'. SPOT-Contact server url: http://sparks-lab.org/jack/server/SPOT-Contact/. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online.

Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2017-01-01

Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)4 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends. PMID:28273856

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

PubMed Central

Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear implants, implanted at an average age of 3.4 years, completed measures of speech perception, language, and executive functioning an average of 14.4 years postimplantation. Speech perception and language skills measured in the 1st and 2nd years postimplantation and open-set word recognition measured in the 3rd and 4th years postimplantation were obtained from a research database in order to assess predictive relations with long-term outcomes. Results Speech perception and language skills at 6 and 18 months postimplantation were correlated with long-term outcomes for language, verbal working memory, and parent-reported executive functioning. Open-set word recognition was correlated with early speech perception and language skills and long-term speech perception and language outcomes. Hierarchical regressions showed that early speech perception and language skills at 6 months postimplantation and growth in these skills from 6 to 18 months both accounted for substantial variance in long-term outcomes for language and verbal working memory that was not explained by conventional demographic and hearing factors. Conclusion Speech perception and language skills measured very early postimplantation, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language, may be clinically relevant markers of long-term language and neurocognitive outcomes in users of cochlear implants. Supplemental materials https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5216200 PMID:28724130

Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

2016-07-01

Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

Verbal Memory Impairment in Polydrug Ecstasy Users: A Clinical Perspective

PubMed Central

Kuypers, Kim P. C.; Theunissen, Eef L.; van Wel, Janelle H. P.; de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B.; Linssen, Anke; Sambeth, Anke; Schultz, Benjamin G.; Ramaekers, Johannes G.

2016-01-01

Background Ecstasy use has been associated with short-term and long-term memory deficits on a standard Word Learning Task (WLT). The clinical relevance of this has been debated and is currently unknown. The present study aimed at evaluating the clinical relevance of verbal memory impairment in Ecstasy users. To that end, clinical memory impairment was defined as decrement in memory performance that exceeded the cut-off value of 1.5 times the standard deviation of the average score in the healthy control sample. The primary question was whether being an Ecstasy user (E-user) was predictive of having clinically deficient memory performance compared to a healthy control group. Methods WLT data were pooled from four experimental MDMA studies that compared memory performance during placebo and MDMA intoxication. Control data were taken from healthy volunteers with no drug use history who completed the WLT as part of a placebo-controlled clinical trial. This resulted in a sample size of 65 E-users and 65 age- and gender-matched healthy drug-naïve controls. All participants were recruited by similar means and were tested at the same testing facilities using identical standard operating procedures. Data were analyzed using linear mixed-effects models, Bayes factor, and logistic regressions. Results Findings were that verbal memory performance of placebo-treated E-users did not differ from that of controls, and there was substantial evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. History of use was not predictive of memory impairment. During MDMA intoxication of E-users, verbal memory was impaired. Conclusion The combination of the acute and long-term findings demonstrates that, while clinically relevant memory impairment is present during intoxication, it is absent during abstinence. This suggests that use of Ecstasy/MDMA does not lead to clinically deficient memory performance in the long term. Additionally, it has to be investigated whether the current findings apply to more complex cognitive measures in diverse ‘user categories’ using a combination of genetics, imaging techniques and neuropsychological assessments. PMID:26907605

Value of intracochlear electrically evoked auditory brainstem response after cochlear implantation in patients with narrow internal auditory canal.

PubMed

Song, Mee Hyun; Bae, Mi Ran; Kim, Hee Nam; Lee, Won-Sang; Yang, Won Sun; Choi, Jae Young

2010-08-01

Cochlear implantation in patients with narrow internal auditory canal (IAC) can result in variable outcomes; however, preoperative evaluations have limitations in accurately predicting outcomes. In this study, we analyzed the outcomes of cochlear implantation in patients with narrow IAC and correlated the intracochlear electrically evoked auditory brainstem response (EABR) findings to postoperative performance to determine the prognostic significance of intracochlear EABR. Retrospective case series at a tertiary hospital. Thirteen profoundly deaf patients with narrow IAC who received cochlear implantation from 2002 to 2008 were included in this study. Postoperative performance was evaluated after at least 12 months of follow-up, and postoperative intracochlear EABR was measured to determine its correlation with outcome. The clinical significance of electrically evoked compound action potential (ECAP) was also analyzed. Patients with narrow IAC showed postoperative auditory performances ranging from CAP 0 to 4 after cochlear implantation. Intracochlear EABR measured postoperatively demonstrated prognostic value in the prediction of long-term outcomes, whereas ECAP measurements failed to show a significant correlation with outcome. Consistent with the advantages of intracochlear EABR over extracochlear EABR, this study demonstrates that intracochlear EABR has prognostic significance in predicting long-term outcomes in patients with narrow IAC. Intracochlear EABR measured either intraoperatively or in the early postoperative period may play an important role in deciding whether to continue with auditory rehabilitation using a cochlear implant or to switch to an auditory brainstem implant so as not to miss the optimal timing for language development.

Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

PubMed

van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

2015-05-01

We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and an overestimation of the predictive value. A methodological approach of related issues is provided in the works of Glymour et al (5) and Hamilton et al (6). This phenomenon is even more clearly illustrated by the predictive properties of the workability index, as described by Alavinia et al (7, page 328), which reported that "when adjusted for individual characteristics, lifestyle factors, and work characteristics, two dimensions of the WAI were significant predictors for both moderate and long durations of sickness absence: (i) the presence of sickness absence in the past 12 months prior to the medical examination and (ii) experienced limitations due to health problems." So, when applied to the study by Schouten et al (1), this means that most of the predictive value would be related to the factors "sickness absence in the past 12 months". In addition, we object to the use of the term "screening" in the Schouten et al study as it includes workers with the intended outcome (long-term sickness absence). One can identify three separate aims to study the longitudinal association between risk factors and subsequent long-term sickness absence: (i) to establish causal risk factors for long-term sickness absence, often to find clues for primary preventive strategies (beyond the scope here); (ii) to identify high-risk workers who are still at work and might benefit from an intervention before sickness absence occurs (secondary prevention); and (iii) to identify workers on sick leave who might suffer a below-average return-to-work rate or have a high risk for the recurrence of (long-term) sickness absence and might benefit from intensification or optimization of the return-to-work process (tertiary prevention). In this light, one needs to separate screening instruments from predictive instruments and reserve the term "screening" for the situation as defined by Wilson and Junger (8, page 7): "The object of screening for disease is to discover those among the apparently well who are in fact suffering from disease" (ie, situations of secondary prevention). This means that, when applying this definition on long-term sickness absence under the precondition that the individuals are still at work, screening enables the identification of high-risk individuals in the early "stages" of a "disease" that can progress into long-term sickness absence. In the case of the Schouten et al study, the population at risk, as derived from their predictive instrument, consists of workers with and without sickness absence, and as such excludes the use of the term "screening" in this case. To conclude, we have substantiated that, in addition to correct usage of the term "screening", careful selection of the study population, predictors and most importantly the aim of the predictive model are essential in the process of developing predictive instruments aimed at identifying workers at high risk of long-term sickness absence. Two fundamentally different approaches are possible. One approach aims at identifying workers on sick leave with either a below-average chance to return to work an/or a high risk for a successive episode of long-term sickness absence. From a methodological and practical point of view, such an instrument should be developed and validated among workers already on sick leave. A second approach aims at identifying workers who are still at work but at high risk for future long-term sickness absence. To develop and validate such an instrument, a study sample where workers already on sick leave are excluded is a prerequisite. Such instruments fit in a pro-active approach of preventing future sickness absence, where an early intervention can be offered to those workers with an increased risk for future sickness absence.

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

2015-04-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mindfulness Enhances Episodic Memory Performance: Evidence from a Multimethod Investigation

PubMed Central

Goodman, Robert J.; Ryan, Richard M.; Anālayo, Bhikkhu

2016-01-01

Training in mindfulness, classically described as a receptive attentiveness to present events and experiences, has been shown to improve attention and working memory. Both are key to long-term memory formation, and the present three-study series used multiple methods to examine whether mindfulness would enhance episodic memory, a key form of long-term memory. In Study 1 (N = 143), a self-reported state of mindful attention predicted better recognition performance in the Remember-Know (R-K) paradigm. In Study 2 (N = 93), very brief training in a focused attention form of mindfulness also produced better recognition memory performance on the R-K task relative to a randomized, well-matched active control condition. Study 3 (N = 57) extended these findings by showing that relative to randomized active and inactive control conditions the effect of very brief mindfulness training generalized to free-recall memory performance. This study also found evidence for mediation of the mindfulness training—episodic memory relation by intrinsic motivation. These findings indicate that mindful attention can beneficially impact motivation and episodic memory, with potential implications for educational and occupational performance. PMID:27115491

Mindfulness Enhances Episodic Memory Performance: Evidence from a Multimethod Investigation.

PubMed

Brown, Kirk Warren; Goodman, Robert J; Ryan, Richard M; Anālayo, Bhikkhu

2016-01-01

Training in mindfulness, classically described as a receptive attentiveness to present events and experiences, has been shown to improve attention and working memory. Both are key to long-term memory formation, and the present three-study series used multiple methods to examine whether mindfulness would enhance episodic memory, a key form of long-term memory. In Study 1 (N = 143), a self-reported state of mindful attention predicted better recognition performance in the Remember-Know (R-K) paradigm. In Study 2 (N = 93), very brief training in a focused attention form of mindfulness also produced better recognition memory performance on the R-K task relative to a randomized, well-matched active control condition. Study 3 (N = 57) extended these findings by showing that relative to randomized active and inactive control conditions the effect of very brief mindfulness training generalized to free-recall memory performance. This study also found evidence for mediation of the mindfulness training-episodic memory relation by intrinsic motivation. These findings indicate that mindful attention can beneficially impact motivation and episodic memory, with potential implications for educational and occupational performance.

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 3, part I) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau province.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Actual versus predicted performance of an active solar heating system - A comparison using FCHART 4.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, P. E.

1981-11-01

The performance of an active solar heating system added to a house in Denver, CO was compared with predictions made by the FCHART 4.0 computer program. The house featured 43.23 sq m of collectors with an ethylene-glycol/water heat transfer fluid, and a 3.23 cu m storage tank. The house hot water was preheated in the storage tank, and home space heat was furnished whenever the storage water was above 32 C. Actual meteorological and heating demand data were used for the comparison, rather than long-term averages. Although monthly predictions by the FCHART program were found to diverge from measured data, the annual demand and supply predictions provided a good fit, i.e. within 9%, and were within 1% of the measured solar energy contributed to storage.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Measuring short-term and long-term physiological stress effects by cortisol reactivity in saliva and hair.

PubMed

van Holland, Berry J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-11-01

The aims of this study were to investigate (1) the concurrent relationship between short-term and long-term stress reactivity measured by cortisol excretion and (2) the relationship of these physiological stress effects with self-reported stress and need for recovery after work (NFR). Participants were production workers in the meat-processing industry. Short-term cortisol excretion was calculated by summing 18 saliva samples, sampled over a 3-day period. Samples were delivered by 37 participants. Twenty-nine of them also supplied one hair sample of at least 3 cm in length for an analysis of long-term (3 months) cortisol excretion. All of them filled in a short questionnaire on self-reported stress and NFR. Self-reported stress was assessed by a three-item stress screener; NFR was assessed by an 11-item scale. Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion are significantly, but moderately, associated (r = 0.41, P = 0.03). Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion correlated weakly to self-reported stress and NFR (correlations varied from -0.04 to 0.21). Short-term and long-term physiological stress excretion levels are moderately associated. Physiological stress effects assessed from saliva and hair cannot be used interchangeably with self-reported stress because they only correlate weakly. To better predict long-term cortisol excretion in workers, the predictive value of short-term cortisol excretion must be evaluated in a prognostic longitudinal study in a working population.

Predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus: A prospective study.

PubMed

Atmaca, Murat Mert; Bebek, Nerses; Baykan, Betül; Gökyiğit, Ayşen; Gürses, Candan

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus (SE). This is a prospective study of 59 adult patients with SE who were admitted to the Emergency Department between February 2012 and December 2013. The effects of clinical, demographic, and electrophysiologic features of patients with SE were evaluated. To evaluate outcome in SE, STESS, mSTESS, and EMSE scales were used. Logistic regression analysis showed that being aged ≥65years (p=0.02, OR: 17.68, 95% CI: [1.6-198.4]) for the short term and having potentially fatal etiology (p=0.027, OR: 11.7, 95% CI: [1.3-103]) for the long term were the only independent predictors of poor outcomes; whereas, the presence of periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in EEG was the only independent predictor of refractoriness (p=0.032, OR: 13.7, 95% CI: [1.3-148.5]). The patients with ≥3 Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) did not have poorer outcomes in the short- (p=0.157) and long term (p=0.065). There was no difference between patients with 0-2, 3-4, and ≥4 mSTESS in the short- and long term in terms of outcome (p=0.28 and 0.063, respectively). Also, there was no difference between subgroups (convulsive SE [CSE], nonconvulsive SE [NCSE], and epilepsia partialis continua [EPC]) in terms of STESS and mSTESS. When patients with EPC were excluded, both STESS and mSTESS scores of the patients correlated with poorer long-term outcomes (p=0.025 and 0.017, respectively). The patients with ≥64 points in the Epidemiology-based Mortality in SE-Etiology, age, comorbidity, EEG (EMSE-EACE) score and those with ≥27 points in EMSE-Etiology, age, comorbidity (EMSE-EAC) score did not have poorer outcomes in the short term (p=0.06 and 0.274, respectively) while they had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p<0.001 and 0.002, respectively). In subgroup analysis, patients with CSE with ≥64 points in EMSE-EACE had significantly poorer outcome in the both short- and long term (p=0.014 and 0.012, respectively), and patients with CSE with ≥27 points in EMSE-EAC had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p=0.03) but not in the short term (p=0.186). Outcomes did not correlate with EMSE scores in patients with NCSE and EPC. Status epilepticus was terminated with intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) in 68.75% of patients and with IV phenytoin (PHT) in 83.3% of patients. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of efficacy (p=0.334). Being aged ≥65years predicts poor short-term outcomes, and having potentially fatal etiology predicts poor long-term outcomes, which highlight the importance of SE treatment management in the elderly. Both STESS and mSTESS are not predictive for poor outcomes in EPC. Excluding patients with EPC, STESS, and mSTESS could predict poor long-term outcomes but not in the short term in SE. Epidemiology-based Mortality in Status Epilepticus score could predict poor outcome in the long term better than STESS and mSTESS. Specifically, EMSE scores correlated with poor outcome in patients with CSE but not with NCSE and EPC. New scales are needed to predict outcome especially in patients with NCSE and EPC. The presence of PEDs in EEG is a predictor of RSE, and EMSE score can also be used to predict RSE. There was no difference in the efficacy of IV LEV and IV PHT in SE. This study is significant for having one of the longest follow-up periods in the literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

1994-01-01

For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

Low back pain and widespread pain predict sickness absence among industrial workers

PubMed Central

Morken, Tone; Riise, Trond; Moen, Bente; Hauge, Signe HV; Holien, Solrun; Langedrag, Anne; Pedersen, Svein; Saue, Inger Lise L; Seljebø, Guri M; Thoppil, Varughese

2003-01-01

Background The prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) in the aluminium industry is high, and there is a considerable work-related fraction. More knowledge about the predictors of sickness absence from MSD in this industry will be valuable in determining strategies for prevention. The aim of this study was to analyse the relative impact of body parts, psychosocial and individual factors as predictors for short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers. Methods A follow-up study was conducted among all the workers at eight aluminium plants in Norway. A questionnaire was completed by 5654 workers at baseline in 1998. A total of 3320 of these participated in the follow-up study in 2000. Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate the relative impact of MSD in various parts of the body and of psychosocial and individual factors reported in 1998 on short-term and long-term sickness absence from MSD reported in 2000. Results MSD accounted for 45% of all working days lost the year prior to follow-up in 2000. Blue-collar workers had significantly higher risk than white-collar workers for both short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD (long-term sickness absence: RR = 3.04, 95% CI 2.08–4.45). Widespread and low back pain in 1998 significantly predicted both short- and long-term sickness absence in 2000. In addition, shoulder pain predicted long-term sickness absence. Low social support predicted short-term sickness absence (RR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.11–1.49). Conclusions Reducing sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers requires focusing on the working conditions of blue-collar workers and risk factors for low back pain and widespread pain. Increasing social support in the work environment may have effects in reducing short-term sickness absence from MSD. PMID:12956891

Long-term Survival of Straumann Dental Implants with TPS Surfaces: A Retrospective Study with a Follow-up of 12 to 23 Years.

PubMed

Becker, Stephan T; Beck-Broichsitter, Benedicta E; Rossmann, Christian M; Behrens, Eleonore; Jochens, Arne; Wiltfang, Jörg

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term dental implant survival rates of Straumann dental implants in a university hospital environment over 12 to 23 years. A total of 388 Straumann dental implants with titanium-sprayed surfaces (TPS) were inserted in 92 patients between 1988 and 1999 in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of the University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein in Kiel, and they were reevaluated with standardized clinical and radiological exams. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed for individual factors. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to detect the factors influencing long-term implant failure. The long-term implant survival rate was 88.03% after an observation time of 12.2 to 23.5 years. Cox regression revealed statistically significant influences of the International Team for Implantology (ITI) implantation type (p = .00354) and tobacco smoking (p = .01264) on implant failure. A proportion 82.8% of the patients with implant losses had a medical history of periodontitis. Peri-implantitis was diagnosed in 9.7% of the remaining implants in the long-term survey. This study emphasized the long-term rehabilitation capabilities of Straumann dental implants in complex cases. The survival rates after several years constitute important information for patients, as well as for clinicians, in deciding about different concepts of tooth replacement. Patient-related and technical factors - determined before implant placement - could help to predict the risk of implant loss. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-Term Asymmetric Hearing Affects Cochlear Implantation Outcomes Differently in Adults with Pre- and Postlingual Hearing Loss

PubMed Central

Boisvert, Isabelle; McMahon, Catherine M.; Dowell, Richard C.; Lyxell, Björn

2015-01-01

In many countries, a single cochlear implant is offered as a treatment for a bilateral hearing loss. In cases where there is asymmetry in the amount of sound deprivation between the ears, there is a dilemma in choosing which ear should be implanted. In many clinics, the choice of ear has been guided by an assumption that the reorganisation of the auditory pathways caused by longer duration of deafness in one ear is associated with poorer implantation outcomes for that ear. This assumption, however, is mainly derived from studies of early childhood deafness. This study compared outcomes following implantation of the better or poorer ear in cases of long-term hearing asymmetries. Audiological records of 146 adults with bilateral hearing loss using a single hearing aid were reviewed. The unaided ear had 15 to 72 years of unaided severe to profound hearing loss before unilateral cochlear implantation. 98 received the implant in their long-term sound-deprived ear. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to assess the relative contribution of potential predictors to speech recognition performance after implantation. Duration of bilateral significant hearing loss and the presence of a prelingual hearing loss explained the majority of variance in speech recognition performance following cochlear implantation. For participants with postlingual hearing loss, similar outcomes were obtained by implanting either ear. With prelingual hearing loss, poorer outcomes were obtained when implanting the long-term sound-deprived ear, but the duration of the sound deprivation in the implanted ear did not reliably predict outcomes. Contrary to an apparent clinical consensus, duration of sound deprivation in one ear has limited value in predicting speech recognition outcomes of cochlear implantation in that ear. Outcomes of cochlear implantation are more closely related to the period of time for which the brain is deprived of auditory stimulation from both ears. PMID:26043227

Facing the future: Memory as an evolved system for planning future acts

PubMed Central

Klein, Stanley B.; Robertson, Theresa E.; Delton, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

All organisms capable of long-term memory are necessarily oriented toward the future. We propose that one of the most important adaptive functions of long-term episodic memory is to store information about the past in the service of planning for the personal future. Because a system should have especially efficient performance when engaged in a task that makes maximal use of its evolved machinery, we predicted that future-oriented planning would result in especially good memory relative to other memory tasks. We tested recall performance of a word list, using encoding tasks with different temporal perspectives (e.g., past, future) but a similar context. Consistent with our hypothesis, future-oriented encoding produced superior recall. We discuss these findings in light of their implications for the thesis that memory evolved to enable its possessor to anticipate and respond to future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty. PMID:19966234

CaPTHUS scoring model in primary hyperparathyroidism: can it eliminate the need for ioPTH testing?

PubMed

Elfenbein, Dawn M; Weber, Sara; Schneider, David F; Sippel, Rebecca S; Chen, Herbert

2015-04-01

The CaPTHUS model was reported to have a positive predictive value of 100 % to correctly predict single-gland disease in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, thus obviating the need for intraoperative parathyroid hormone (ioPTH) testing. We sought to apply the CaPTHUS scoring model in our patient population and assess its utility in predicting long-term biochemical cure. We retrospective reviewed all parathyroidectomies for primary hyperparathyroidism performed at our university hospital from 2003 to 2012. We routinely perform ioPTH testing. Biochemical cure was defined as a normal calcium level at 6 months. A total of 1,421 patients met the inclusion criteria: 78 % of patients had a single adenoma at the time of surgery, 98 % had a normal serum calcium at 1 week postoperatively, and 96 % had a normal serum calcium level 6 months postoperatively. Using the CaPTHUS scoring model, 307 patients (22.5 %) had a score of ≥ 3, with a positive predictive value of 91 % for single adenoma. A CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had a positive predictive value of 98 % for biochemical cure at 1 week as well as at 6 months. In our population, where ioPTH testing is used routinely to guide use of bilateral exploration, patients with a preoperative CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had good long-term biochemical cure rates. However, the model only predicted adenoma in 91 % of cases. If minimally invasive parathyroidectomy without ioPTH testing had been done for these patients, the cure rate would have dropped from 98 % to an unacceptable 89 %. Even in these patients with high CaPTHUS scores, multigland disease is present in almost 10 %, and ioPTH testing is necessary.

Contextual Match and Cue-Independence of Retrieval-Induced Forgetting: Testing the Prediction of the Model by Norman, Newman, and Detre (2007)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanczakowski, Maciej; Mazzoni, Giuliana

2013-01-01

Retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) is the finding of impaired memory performance for information stored in long-term memory due to retrieval of a related set of information. This phenomenon is often assigned to operations of a specialized mechanism recruited to resolve interference during retrieval by deactivating competing memory representations.…

Automatic Speech Recognition Predicts Speech Intelligibility and Comprehension for Listeners with Simulated Age-Related Hearing Loss

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fontan, Lionel; Ferrané, Isabelle; Farinas, Jérôme; Pinquier, Julien; Tardieu, Julien; Magnen, Cynthia; Gaillard, Pascal; Aumont, Xavier; Füllgrabe, Christian

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to assess speech processing for listeners with simulated age-related hearing loss (ARHL) and to investigate whether the observed performance can be replicated using an automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. The long-term goal of this research is to develop a system that will assist…

Structured Semantic Knowledge Can Emerge Automatically from Predicting Word Sequences in Child-Directed Speech

PubMed Central

Huebner, Philip A.; Willits, Jon A.

2018-01-01

Previous research has suggested that distributional learning mechanisms may contribute to the acquisition of semantic knowledge. However, distributional learning mechanisms, statistical learning, and contemporary “deep learning” approaches have been criticized for being incapable of learning the kind of abstract and structured knowledge that many think is required for acquisition of semantic knowledge. In this paper, we show that recurrent neural networks, trained on noisy naturalistic speech to children, do in fact learn what appears to be abstract and structured knowledge. We trained two types of recurrent neural networks (Simple Recurrent Network, and Long Short-Term Memory) to predict word sequences in a 5-million-word corpus of speech directed to children ages 0–3 years old, and assessed what semantic knowledge they acquired. We found that learned internal representations are encoding various abstract grammatical and semantic features that are useful for predicting word sequences. Assessing the organization of semantic knowledge in terms of the similarity structure, we found evidence of emergent categorical and hierarchical structure in both models. We found that the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and SRN are both learning very similar kinds of representations, but the LSTM achieved higher levels of performance on a quantitative evaluation. We also trained a non-recurrent neural network, Skip-gram, on the same input to compare our results to the state-of-the-art in machine learning. We found that Skip-gram achieves relatively similar performance to the LSTM, but is representing words more in terms of thematic compared to taxonomic relations, and we provide reasons why this might be the case. Our findings show that a learning system that derives abstract, distributed representations for the purpose of predicting sequential dependencies in naturalistic language may provide insight into emergence of many properties of the developing semantic system. PMID:29520243

Eclipse-Free-Time Assessment Tool for IRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagle, David

2012-01-01

IRIS_EFT is a scientific simulation that can be used to perform an Eclipse-Free- Time (EFT) assessment of IRIS (Infrared Imaging Surveyor) mission orbits. EFT is defined to be those time intervals longer than one day during which the IRIS spacecraft is not in the Earth s shadow. Program IRIS_EFT implements a special perturbation of orbital motion to numerically integrate Cowell's form of the system of differential equations. Shadow conditions are predicted by embedding this integrator within Brent s method for finding the root of a nonlinear equation. The IRIS_EFT software models the effects of the following types of orbit perturbations on the long-term evolution and shadow characteristics of IRIS mission orbits. (1) Non-spherical Earth gravity, (2) Atmospheric drag, (3) Point-mass gravity of the Sun, and (4) Point-mass gravity of the Moon. The objective of this effort was to create an in-house computer program that would perform eclipse-free-time analysis. of candidate IRIS spacecraft mission orbits in an accurate and timely fashion. The software is a suite of Fortran subroutines and data files organized as a "computational" engine that is used to accurately predict the long-term orbit evolution of IRIS mission orbits while searching for Earth shadow conditions.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Modeling forest biomass and growth: Coupling long-term inventory and LiDAR data

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; Bruce D. Cook; Aaron Weiskittel; Christopher W. Woodall

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB...

On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Bunde, Armin

2011-06-01

We study the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory in the presence of additive white noise using two different approaches: (i) the precursory pattern recognition technique (PRT) that exploits solely the information about short-term precursors, and (ii) the return interval approach (RIA) that exploits long-range memory incorporated in the elapsed time after the last extreme event. We find that the PRT always performs better when only linear memory is present. In the presence of nonlinear memory, both methods demonstrate comparable efficiency in the absence of white noise. When additional white noise is present in the record (which is the case in most observational records), the efficiency of the PRT decreases monotonously with increasing noise level. In contrast, the RIA shows an abrupt transition between a phase of low level noise where the prediction is as good as in the absence of noise, and a phase of high level noise where the prediction becomes poor. In the phase of low and intermediate noise the RIA predicts considerably better than the PRT, which explains our recent findings in physiological and financial records.

Ventricular Late Potentials Immediately Post ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction, and Very Long-Term Mortality.

PubMed

Shturman, Alexander; Vardi, Shira; Bickel, Amitai; Atar, Shaul

2017-04-01

The very long-term prognostic significance of ventricular late potentials (VLP) in patients post ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is unclear. To evaluate the long-term predictive value of VLP for mortality post-STEMI. We conducted serial signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) measurements in 63 patients on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd day pre-discharge, and 30 days after STEMI in patients admitted in 2001. We followed the patients for 10 years and correlated the presence of VLP with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The mean age was 59.9 ± 12.3 years. Thrombolysis was performed in 41 patients (65%). Percutaneous coronary intervention was performed pre-discharge in 40 patients (63%) and coronary artery bypass grafting in 7 (11%). Five consecutive measurements to define the presence of VLP were obtained in 52 patients (21 with VLP and 31 without). We found a higher prevalence of VLP in males compared to females (QRS segment > 114 msec, 51% vs. 12%, P = 0.02, duration of the low amplitude signal < 40 mV) in the terminal portion of the averaged QRS complex > 38 msec, 47% vs. 25%, P = 0.05). Over 10 years of follow-up, 14 (22%) patients died, 10 (70%) due to cardiovascular non-arrhythmic complications, 6 with VLP compared to only 3 without (28.6% vs. 9.7%, P = 0.125, hazard ratio = 2.96, confidence intervals = 0.74-11.84) (are these numbers meant to total 10?). Over 10 years of follow-up, the presence of VLP in early post-STEMI is not predictive of arrhythmic or non-arrhythmic cardiovascular mortality.

Body size, performance and fitness in galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2003-07-01

Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures, making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures, such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach, we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically, foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment, influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density, famines, or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance, on the other hand, increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated, these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones), with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations.

Long-Term Bridge Performance (LTBP) Program Protocols, Version 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

The Long-Term Bridge Performance (LTBP) Program is a long-term research effort to collect scientific performance data from a representative sample of bridges in the United States. Data will be collected for in-service bridges using a variety of techn...

Pulmonary involvement in long-term mixed connective tissue disease: functional trends and image findings after 10 years.

PubMed

Kawano-Dourado, Leticia; Baldi, Bruno G; Kay, Fernando U; Dias, Olivia M; Gripp, Thais E H; Gomes, Paula S; Fuller, Ricardo; Caleiro, Maria T C; Kairalla, Ronaldo A; Carvalho, Carlos R R

2015-01-01

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is highly prevalent in patients with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). However, little is known about the long-term progression of ILD in MCTD. The aims of this study were to describe pulmonary function test (PFT) and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) results in long-term MCTD patients, to measure changes in PFT and HRCT results over a 10-year period, and to ascertain correlations in functional and imaging data. In this retrospective cohort study, comparison between baseline and follow-up PFT and HRCT data was performed for 39 unselected consecutive MCTD patients. At baseline, 51% of the patients had abnormal PFTs. Forced vital capacity (FVC) was slightly reduced at baseline (77% of predicted), but remained stable after 10 years. A relative decrease of 15% in the diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was detected (from 84% to 71% of predicted, p<0.001). The median lower lobes ILD-HRCT score progressed from 7.5% at baseline to 11.2% at follow-up (p=0.02), and findings of traction bronchiolectasis and honeycombing increased (p<0.05). A moderate negative correlation was observed between functional parameters and quantification of image findings. Functional and radiologic alterations suggestive of ILD in long-term MCTD patients are prevalent, mild, and progressed slightly over time. The most sensitive parameters for detecting subtle progression of ILD in MCTD patients are trends in DLCO, quantification of lower-lobes disease by HRCT (lower-lobes %ILD-HRCT score), and qualitative analysis of HRCT imaging.

Thermodynamic model of natural, medieval and nuclear waste glass durability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jantzen, C.M.; Plodinec, M.J.

1983-01-01

A thermodynamic model of glass durability based on hydration of structural units has been applied to natural glass, medieval window glasses, and glasses containing nuclear waste. The relative durability predicted from the calculated thermodynamics correlates directly with the experimentally observed release of structural silicon in the leaching solution in short-term laboratory tests. By choosing natural glasses and ancient glasses whose long-term performance is known, and which bracket the durability of waste glasses, the long-term stability of nuclear waste glasses can be interpolated among these materials. The current Savannah River defense waste glass formulation is as durable as natural basalt frommore » the Hanford Reservation (10/sup 6/ years old). The thermodynamic hydration energy is shown to be related to the bond energetics of the glass. 69 references, 2 figures, 1 table.« less

Evaluation of microvascular anastomosis using real-time ultrahigh resolution Fourier domain Doppler optical coherence tomography

PubMed Central

Huang, Yong; Tong, Dedi; Zhu, Shan; Wu, Lehao; Mao, Qi; Ibrahim, Zuhaib; Lee, WP Andrew; Brandacher, Gerald; Kang, Jin U.

2014-01-01

Background Evolution and improvements in microsurgical techniques and tools have paved the way for super-microsurgical anastomoses with vessel diameters often approaching below 0.8 mm in the clinical realm and even smaller (0.2–0.3 mm) in murine models. Several imaging and monitoring devices have been introduced for post-operative monitoring but intra-operative guidance, assessment and predictability have remained limited to binocular optical microscope and surgeon’s experience. We present a high-resolution real time 3D imaging modality for intra-operative evaluation of luminal narrowing, thrombus formation and flow alterations. Methods An imaging modality that provides immediate, in-depth high resolution 3D structure view and flow information of the anastomosed site called phase resolved Doppler optical coherence tomography (PRDOCT) was developed. 22 mouse femoral artery anastomoses and 17 mouse venous anastomoses were performed and evaluated with PRDOCT. Flow status, vessel inner lumen 3D structure, and early thrombus detection were analyzed based on PRDOCT imaging results. Initial PRDOCT based predictions were correlated with actual long term surgical outcomes. Eventually four cases of mouse orthotopic limb transplantation were carried out and PRDOCT predicted long term patency were confirmed by actual results. Results PRDOCT was able to provide high-resolution 3D visualization of the vessel flow status and vessel inner lumen. The assessments based on PRDOCT visualization shows a 92% sensitivity and 90% specificity for arterial anastomoses and 90% sensitivity and 86% specificity for venous anastomoses. Conclusions PRDOCT is an effective evaluation tool for microvascular anastomosis. It can predict the long term vessel patency with high sensitivity and specificity. PMID:25811583

Congress of Neurological Surgeons Systematic Review and Evidence-Based Guidelines on Intraoperative Cranial Nerve Monitoring in Vestibular Schwannoma Surgery.

PubMed

Vivas, Esther X; Carlson, Matthew L; Neff, Brian A; Shepard, Neil T; McCracken, D Jay; Sweeney, Alex D; Olson, Jeffrey J

2018-02-01

Does intraoperative facial nerve monitoring during vestibular schwannoma surgery lead to better long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery regardless of tumor characteristics. Level 3: It is recommended that intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be routinely utilized during vestibular schwannoma surgery to improve long-term facial nerve function. Can intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Intraoperative facial nerve can be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery. Specifically, the presence of favorable testing reliably portends a good long-term facial nerve outcome. However, the absence of favorable testing in the setting of an anatomically intact facial nerve does not reliably predict poor long-term function and therefore cannot be used to direct decision-making regarding the need for early reinnervation procedures. Does an anatomically intact facial nerve with poor electromyogram (EMG) electrical responses during intraoperative testing reliably predict poor long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Poor intraoperative EMG electrical response of the facial nerve should not be used as a reliable predictor of poor long-term facial nerve function. Should intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: Intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring should be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery when hearing preservation is attempted. Is direct monitoring of the eighth cranial nerve superior to the use of far-field auditory brain stem responses? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: There is insufficient evidence to make a definitive recommendation.  The full guideline can be found at: https://www.cns.org/guidelines/guidelines-manage-ment-patients-vestibular-schwannoma/chapter_4. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (Phase III Part 2) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau Province : research report : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeow, Y. T.

1980-01-01

A 'material modeling' methodology for predicting the creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites is proposed. In this approach the parameters (obtained from short-term tests) required to make the predictions are the three principal creep compliance master curves and their corresponding quasi-static strengths tested at room temperature (22 C). Using these parameters in conjunction with a failure criterion, creep rupture envelopes can be generated for any combination of in-plane loading conditions and ambient temperature. The analysis was validated experimentally for one composite system, the T300/934 graphite-epoxy system. This was done by performing short-term creep tests (to generate the principal creep compliance master curves with the time-temperature superposition principle) and relatively long-term creep rupture tensile tests of off-axis specimens at 180 C. Good to reasonable agreement between experimental and analytical results is observed.

Long-term Outcome of Chondrosarcoma: A Single Institutional Experience.

PubMed

Bindiganavile, Srimanth; Han, Ilkyu; Yun, Ji Yeon; Kim, Han-Soo

2015-10-01

The prognostic factors of chondrosarcoma remain uncertain as only a few large studies with long-term follow-up have been reported. The aim of this study was to analyze oncological outcomes and prognostic factors. A retrospective review of oncological outcomes and prognostic factors was performed on 125 consecutive chondrosarcoma patients who underwent surgery at our institution. Overall survival was 91.6%±2.5%, 84.1%±3.8%, and 84.1%±3.8% at 5, 10, and 15 years respectively. Among the histological types, dedifferentiated type showed the worst survival (p < 0.001). As for conventional type chondrosarcoma, histologic grade and anatomical location predicted outcome, with high-grade with axial location having the worst outcome (p < 0.001). In contrast, low-grade chondrosarcoma of appendicular skeleton could be treated safely by intralesional curettage. Histological type was significantly associated with the outcome of chondrosarcoma. For the conventional type, histologic grade and anatomical location predicted outcome, with high-grade with axial location having the worst outcome.

Psychosocial Outcomes in Long-Term Cochlear Implant Users.

PubMed

Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Pisoni, David B

The objectives of this study were to investigate psychosocial outcomes in a sample of prelingually deaf, early-implanted children, adolescents, and young adults who are long-term cochlear implant (CI) users and to examine the extent to which language and executive functioning predict psychosocial outcomes. Psychosocial outcomes were measured using two well-validated, parent-completed checklists: the Behavior Assessment System for Children and the Conduct Hyperactive Attention Problem Oppositional Symptom. Neurocognitive skills were measured using gold standard, performance-based assessments of language and executive functioning. CI users were at greater risk for clinically significant deficits in areas related to attention, oppositional behavior, hyperactivity-impulsivity, and social-adaptive skills compared with their normal-hearing peers, although the majority of CI users scored within average ranges relative to Behavior Assessment System for Children norms. Regression analyses revealed that language, visual-spatial working memory, and inhibition-concentration skills predicted psychosocial outcomes. Findings suggest that underlying delays and deficits in language and executive functioning may place some CI users at a risk for difficulties in psychosocial adjustment.

Effects of initial iron corrosion rate on long-term performance of iron permeable reactive barriers: column experiments and numerical simulation.

PubMed

suk O, Jin; Jeen, Sung-Wook; Gillham, Robert W; Gui, Lai

2009-01-26

Column experiments and numerical simulation were conducted to test the hypothesis that iron material having a high corrosion rate is not beneficial for the long-term performance of iron permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) because of faster passivation of iron and greater porosity loss close to the influent face of the PRBs. Four iron materials (Connelly, Gotthart-Maier, Peerless, and ISPAT) were used for the column experiments, and the changes in reactivity toward cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) degradation in the presence of dissolved CaCO3 were evaluated. The experimental results showed that the difference in distribution of the accumulated precipitates, resulting from differences in iron corrosion rate, caused a difference in the migration rate of the cis-DCE profiles and a significant difference in the pattern of passivation, indicating a faster passivation in the region close to the influent end for the material having a higher corrosion rate. For the numerical simulation, the accumulation of secondary minerals and reactivity loss of iron were coupled using an empirically-derived relationship that was incorporated into a multi-component reactive transport model. The simulation results provided a reasonable representation of the evolution of iron reactivity toward cis-DCE treatment and the changes in geochemical conditions for each material, consistent with the observed data. The simulations for long-term performance were also conducted to further test the hypothesis and predict the differences in performance over a period of 40 years under typical groundwater conditions. The predictions showed that the cases of higher iron corrosion rates had earlier cis-DCE breakthrough and more reduction in porosity starting from near the influent face, due to more accumulation of carbonate minerals in that region. Therefore, both the experimental and simulation results appear to support the hypothesis and suggest that reactivity changes of iron materials resulting from evolution of geochemical conditions should be considered in the design of iron PRBs.

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

2009-01-01

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does improvement in self-management skills predict improvement in quality of life and depressive symptoms? A prospective study in patients with heart failure up to one year after self-management education.

PubMed

Musekamp, Gunda; Schuler, Michael; Seekatz, Bettina; Bengel, Jürgen; Faller, Hermann; Meng, Karin

2017-02-15

Heart failure (HF) patient education aims to foster patients' self-management skills. These are assumed to bring about, in turn, improvements in distal outcomes such as quality of life. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that change in self-reported self-management skills observed after participation in self-management education predicts changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms up to one year thereafter. The sample comprised 342 patients with chronic heart failure, treated in inpatient rehabilitation clinics, who received a heart failure self-management education program. Latent change modelling was used to analyze relationships between both short-term (during inpatient rehabilitation) and intermediate-term (after six months) changes in self-reported self-management skills and both intermediate-term and long-term (after twelve months) changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms. Short-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted intermediate-term changes in mental quality of life and long-term changes in physical quality of life. Intermediate-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted long-term changes in all outcomes. These findings support the assumption that improvements in self-management skills may foster improvements in distal outcomes.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed

Kanamori, H

1996-04-30

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

Influence of long-term thermal aging on the microstructural evolution of nuclear reactor pressure vessel materials: An atom probe study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pareige, P.; Russell, K.F.; Stoller, R.E.

1998-03-01

Atom probe field ion microscopy (APFIM) investigations of the microstructure of unaged (as-fabricated) and long-term thermally aged ({approximately} 100,000 h at 280 C) surveillance materials from commercial reactor pressure vessel steels were performed. This combination of materials and conditions permitted the investigation of potential thermal-aging effects. This microstructural study focused on the quantification of the compositions of the matrix and carbides. The APFIM results indicate that there was no significant microstructural evolution after a long-term thermal exposure in weld, plate, or forging materials. The matrix depletion of copper that was observed in weld materials was consistent with the copper concentrationmore » in the matrix after the stress-relief heat treatment. The compositions of cementite carbides aged for 100,000 h were compared with the Thermocalc{trademark} prediction. The APFIM comparisons of materials under these conditions are consistent with the measured change in mechanical properties such as the Charpy transition temperature.« less

Intratumor Heterogeneity of the Estrogen Receptor and the Long-term Risk of Fatal Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Lindström, Linda S; Yau, Christina; Czene, Kamila; Thompson, Carlie K; Hoadley, Katherine A; Van't Veer, Laura J; Balassanian, Ron; Bishop, John W; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Hasteh, Farnaz; Krings, Gregor; Lin, Fritz; Zhang, Yanhong; Nordenskjöld, Bo; Stål, Olle; Benz, Christopher C; Fornander, Tommy; Borowsky, Alexander D; Esserman, Laura J

2018-01-19

Breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease have a continuous long-term risk for fatal breast cancer, but the biological factors influencing this risk are unknown. We aimed to determine whether high intratumor heterogeneity of ER predicts an increased long-term risk (25 years) of fatal breast cancer. The STO-3 trial enrolled 1780 postmenopausal lymph node-negative breast cancer patients randomly assigned to receive adjuvant tamoxifen vs not. The fraction of cancer cells for each ER intensity level was scored by breast cancer pathologists, and intratumor heterogeneity of ER was calculated using Rao's quadratic entropy and categorized into high and low heterogeneity using a predefined cutoff at the second tertile (67%). Long-term breast cancer-specific survival analyses by intra-tumor heterogeneity of ER were performed using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. A statistically significant difference in long-term survival by high vs low intratumor heterogeneity of ER was seen for all ER-positive patients (P < .001) and for patients with luminal A subtype tumors (P = .01). In multivariable analyses, patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had a twofold increased long-term risk as compared with patients with low intratumor heterogeneity (ER-positive: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31 to 3.00; luminal A subtype tumors: HR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.99). Patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had an increased long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Interestingly, a similar long-term risk increase was seen in patients with luminal A subtype tumors. Our findings suggest that intratumor heterogeneity of ER is an independent long-term prognosticator with potential to change clinical management, especially for patients with luminal A tumors. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

The nature of earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindh, A.G.

1991-01-01

Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible. 

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Boyun; Duguid, Andrew; Nygaard, Ronar

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2-explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou fieldmore » in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.« less

Microbial composition and diversity are associated with plant performance: a case study on long-term fertilization effect on wheat growth in an Ultisol.

PubMed

Li, Lihua; Fan, Fenliang; Song, Alin; Yin, Chang; Cui, Peiyuan; Li, Zhaojun; Liang, Yongchao

2017-06-01

The association between microbial communities and plant growth in long-term fertilization system has not been fully studied. In the present study, impacts of long-term fertilization have been determined on the size and activity of soil microbial communities and wheat performance in a red soil (Ultisol) collected from Qiyang Experimental Station, China. For this, different microbial communities originating from long-term fertilized pig manure (M), mineral fertilizer (NPK), pig manure plus mineral fertilizer (MNPK), and no fertilizer (CK) were used as inocula for the Ultisol tested. Changes in total bacterial and fungal community composition and structures using Ion Torrent sequencing were determined. The results show that the biomass of wheat was significantly higher in both sterilized soil inoculated with NPK (SNPK) and sterilized soil inoculated with MNPK (SMNPK) treatments than in other treatments (P < 0.05). The activities of β-1,4-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) and cellobiohydrolase (CBH) were significantly correlated with wheat biomass. Among the microbial communities, the largest Ascomycota phylum in soils was negatively correlated with β-1,4-glucosidase (βG) (P < 0.05). The phylum Basidiomycota was negatively correlated with plant biomass (PB) and tillers per plant (TI) (P < 0.05). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis shows that fungal community was strongly correlated with long-term fertilization strategy, while the bacterial community was strongly correlated with β-1,4-N-acetylglucosaminidase activity. According to the Mantel test, the growth of wheat was affected by fungal community. Taken together, microbial composition and diversity in soils could be a good player in predicting soil fertility and consequently plant growth.

The significance of serum urea and renal function in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Gotsman, Israel; Zwas, Donna; Planer, David; Admon, Dan; Lotan, Chaim; Keren, Andre

2010-07-01

Renal function and urea are frequently abnormal in patients with heart failure (HF) and are predictive of increased mortality. The relative importance of each parameter is less clear. We prospectively compared the predictive value of renal function and serum urea on clinical outcome in patients with HF. Patients hospitalized with definite clinical diagnosis of HF (n = 355) were followed for short-term (1 yr) and long-term (mean, 6.5 yr) survival and HF rehospitalization. Increasing tertiles of discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were an independent predictor of increased long-term survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.91; p = 0.01) but not short-term survival. Admission and discharge serum urea and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio were predictors of reduced short- and long-term survival on multivariate Cox regression analysis. Increasing tertiles of discharge urea were a predictor of reduced 1-year survival (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.21-3.73; p = 0.009) and long-term survival (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.37-2.71; p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis including discharge eGFR and serum urea demonstrated that only serum urea remained a significant predictor of long-term survival; however, eGFR and BUN/creatinine ratio were both independently predictive of survival. Urea was more discriminative than eGFR in predicting long-term survival by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.803 vs. 0.787; p = 0.01). Increasing tertiles of discharge serum urea and BUN/creatinine were independent predictors of HF rehospitalization and combined death and HF rehospitalization. This study suggests that serum urea is a more powerful predictor of survival than eGFR in patients with HF. This may be due to urea's relation to key biological parameters including renal, hemodynamic, and neurohormonal parameters pertaining to the overall clinical status of the patient with chronic HF.

Comparison of Models of Stress Relaxation in Failure Analysis for Connectors under Long-term Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yilin; Wan, Mengru

2018-03-01

Reliability requirements of the system equipment under long-term storage are put forward especially for the military products, so that the connectors in the equipment also need long-term storage life correspondingly. In this paper, the effects of stress relaxation of the elastic components on electrical contact of the connectors in long-term storage process were studied from the failure mechanism and degradation models. A wire spring connector was taken as an example to discuss the life prediction method for electrical contacts of the connectors based on stress relaxation degradation under long -term storage.

Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using Long Short-Term Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Hui; Dong, Junyu; Zhong, Guoqiang; Sun, Xin

2017-10-01

This letter adopts long short-term memory(LSTM) to predict sea surface temperature(SST), which is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to use recurrent neural network to solve the problem of SST prediction, and to make one week and one month daily prediction. We formulate the SST prediction problem as a time series regression problem. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network, which introduces gate mechanism into vanilla RNN to prevent the vanished or exploding gradient problem. It has strong ability to model the temporal relationship of time series data and can handle the long-term dependency problem well. The proposed network architecture is composed of two kinds of layers: LSTM layer and full-connected dense layer. LSTM layer is utilized to model the time series relationship. Full-connected layer is utilized to map the output of LSTM layer to a final prediction. We explore the optimal setting of this architecture by experiments and report the accuracy of coastal seas of China to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, we also show its online updated characteristics.

Determination of tube-to-tube support interaction characteristics. [PWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haslinger, K.H.

Tube-to-tube support interaction characteristics were determined on a multi-span tube geometry representative of the hot-leg side of the C-E, System 80 steam generator design. Results will become input for an autoclave type wear test program on steam generator tubes, performed by Kraftwerk Union (KWU). Correlation of test data reported here with similar data obtained from the wear tests will be performed in an attempt to make predictions about the long-term fretting behavior of steam generator tubes.

Minerals and design of new waste forms for conditioning nuclear waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montel, Jean-Marc

2011-02-01

Safe storage of radioactive waste is a major challenge for the nuclear industry. Mineralogy is a good basis for designing ceramics, which could eventually replace nuclear glasses. This requires a new storage concept: separation-conditioning. Basic rules of crystal chemistry allow one to select the most suitable structures and natural occurrences allow assessing the long-term performance of ceramics in a geological environment. Three criteria are of special interest: compatibility with geological environment, resistance to natural fluids, and effects of self-irradiation. If mineralogical information is efficient for predicting the behaviour of common, well-known minerals, such as zircon, monazite or apatite, more research is needed to rationalize the long-term behaviour of uncommon waste form analogs.

Long-term cryogenic space storage system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, R. A.; Chronic, W. L.

1973-01-01

Discussion of the design, fabrication and testing of a 225-cu ft spherical cryogenic storage system for long-term subcritical applications under zero-g conditions in storing subcritical cryogens for space vehicle propulsion systems. The insulation system design, the analytical methods used, and the correlation between the performance test results and analytical predictions are described. The best available multilayer insulation materials and state-of-the-art thermal protection concepts were applied in the design, providing a boiloff rate of 0.152 lb/hr, or 0.032% per day, and an overall heat flux of 0.066 Btu/sq ft hr based on a 200 sq ft surface area. A six to eighteen month cryogenic storage is provided by this system for space applications.

Predicting nursing home placement among home- and community-based services program participants.

PubMed

Greiner, Melissa A; Qualls, Laura G; Iwata, Isao; White, Heidi K; Molony, Sheila L; Sullivan, M Terry; Burke, Bonnie; Schulman, Kevin A; Setoguchi, Soko

2014-12-01

Several states offer publicly funded-care management programs to prevent long-term care placement of high-risk Medicaid beneficiaries. Understanding participant risk factors and services that may prevent long-term care placement can facilitate efficient allocation of program resources. To develop a practical prediction model to identify participants in a home- and community-based services program who are at highest risk for long-term nursing home placement, and to examine participant-level and program-level predictors of nursing home placement. In a retrospective observational study, we used deidentified data for participants in the Connecticut Home Care Program for Elders who completed an annual assessment survey between 2005 and 2010. We analyzed data on patient characteristics, use of program services, and short-term facility admissions in the previous year. We used logistic regression models with random effects to predict nursing home placement. The main outcome measures were long-term nursing home placement within 180 days or 1 year of assessment. Among 10,975 study participants, 1249 (11.4%) had nursing home placement within 1 year of annual assessment. Risk factors included Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.18-1.43), money management dependency (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.51), living alone (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80), and number of prior short-term skilled nursing facility stays (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.31-1.62). Use of a personal care assistance service was associated with 46% lower odds of nursing home placement. The model C statistic was 0.76 in the validation cohort. A model using information from a home- and community-based service program had strong discrimination to predict risk of long-term nursing home placement and can be used to identify high-risk participants for targeted interventions.

Music-related reward responses predict episodic memory performance.

PubMed

Ferreri, Laura; Rodriguez-Fornells, Antoni

2017-12-01

Music represents a special type of reward involving the recruitment of the mesolimbic dopaminergic system. According to recent theories on episodic memory formation, as dopamine strengthens the synaptic potentiation produced by learning, stimuli triggering dopamine release could result in long-term memory improvements. Here, we behaviourally test whether music-related reward responses could modulate episodic memory performance. Thirty participants rated (in terms of arousal, familiarity, emotional valence, and reward) and encoded unfamiliar classical music excerpts. Twenty-four hours later, their episodic memory was tested (old/new recognition and remember/know paradigm). Results revealed an influence of music-related reward responses on memory: excerpts rated as more rewarding were significantly better recognized and remembered. Furthermore, inter-individual differences in the ability to experience musical reward, measured through the Barcelona Music Reward Questionnaire, positively predicted memory performance. Taken together, these findings shed new light on the relationship between music, reward and memory, showing for the first time that music-driven reward responses are directly implicated in higher cognitive functions and can account for individual differences in memory performance.

A comparison of the recording of comorbidity in primary and secondary care by using the Charlson Index to predict short-term and long-term survival in a routine linked data cohort.

PubMed

Crooks, C J; West, J; Card, T R

2015-06-05

Hospital admission records provide snapshots of clinical histories for a subset of the population admitted to hospital. In contrast, primary care records provide continuous clinical histories for complete populations, but might lack detail about inpatient stays. Therefore, combining primary and secondary care records should improve the ability of comorbidity scores to predict survival in population-based studies, and provide better adjustment for case-mix differences when assessing mortality outcomes. Cohort study. English primary and secondary care 1 January 2005 to 1 January 2010. All patients 20 years and older registered to a primary care practice contributing to the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink from England. The performance of the Charlson index with mortality was compared when derived from either primary or secondary care data or both. This was assessed in relation to short-term and long-term survival, age, consultation rate, and specific acute and chronic diseases. 657,264 people were followed up from 1 January 2005. Although primary care recorded more comorbidity than secondary care, the resulting C statistics for the Charlson index remained similar: 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. Higher consultation rates and restricted age bands reduced the performance of the Charlson index, but the index's excellent performance persisted over longer follow-up; the C statistic was 0.87 over 1 year, and 0.85 over all 5 years of follow-up. The Charlson index derived from secondary care comorbidity had a greater effect than primary care comorbidity in reducing the association of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality. However, they had a similar effect in reducing the association of diabetes with mortality. These findings support the use of the Charlson index from linked data and show that secondary care comorbidity coding performed at least as well as that derived from primary care in predicting survival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Carey, Sean K.; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris

2017-04-01

Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are prerequisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies, predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs.

Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

Treesearch

Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

2012-01-01

Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

Predicting clinical image delivery time by monitoring PACS queue behavior.

PubMed

King, Nelson E; Documet, Jorge; Liu, Brent

2006-01-01

The expectation of rapid image retrieval from PACS users contributes to increased information technology (IT) infrastructure investments to increase performance as well as continuing demands upon PACS administrators to respond to "slow" system performance. The ability to provide predicted delivery times to a PACS user may curb user expectations for "fastest" response especially during peak hours. This, in turn, could result in a PACS infrastructure tailored to more realistic performance demands. A PACS with a stand-alone architecture under peak load typically holds study requests in a queue until the DICOM C-Move command can take place. We investigate the contents of a stand-alone architecture PACS RetrieveSend queue and identified parameters and behaviors that enable a more accurate prediction of delivery time. A prediction algorithm for studies delayed in a stand-alone PACS queue can be extendible to other potential bottlenecks such as long-term storage archives. Implications of a queue monitor in other PACS architectures are also discussed.

Changes in the level of cardiac troponine and disorders in pulmonary gas exchange as predictors of short- and long-term outcomes of patients with aneurysm subarachnoid haemorrhage.

PubMed

Burzyńska, Małgorzata; Uryga, Agnieszka; Kasprowicz, Magdalena; Kędziora, Jarosław; Szewczyk, Ewa; Woźniak, Jowita; Jarmundowicz, Włodzimierz; Kübler, Andrzej

2017-12-01

Cardiopulmonary abnormalities are common after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). However, the relationship between short- and long-term outcome is poorly understood. In this paper, we present how cardiac troponine elevations (cTnI) and pulmonary disorders are associated with short- and long-term outcomes assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). A total of 104 patients diagnosed with aSAH were analysed in the study. The non-parametric U Mann-Whitney test was used to evaluate the difference between good (GOS IV-V, GOSE V-VIII) and poor (GOS I-III, GOSE I-IV) outcomes in relation to cTnI elevation and pulmonary disorders. Outcome was assessed at discharge from the hospital, and then followed up 6 and 12 months later. Pulmonary disorders were determined by the PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio and radiography. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to determine the predictive power of these factors. In the group with good short-term outcomes cTnI elevation on the second day after aSAH was significantly lower (p = .00007) than in patients with poor short-term outcomes. The same trend was observed after 6 months, although there were different results 12 months from the onset (p = .024 and n.s., respectively). A higher peak of cTnI was observed in the group with a pathological X-ray (p = .008) and pathological PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio (p ≪ .001). cTnI was an accurate predictor of short-term outcomes (AUC = 0.741, p ≪ .001) and the outcome after 6 months (AUC = 0.688, p = .015). The results showed that cardiopulmonary abnormalities perform well as predictive factors for short- and long-term outcomes after aSAH.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

Timescale Correlation between Marine Atmospheric Exposure and Accelerated Corrosion Testing - Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Eliza L.; Calle, Luz Marina; Curran, Jerome C.; Kolody, Mark R.

2012-01-01

Evaluation of metals to predict service life of metal-based structures in corrosive environments has long relied on atmospheric exposure test sites. Traditional accelerated corrosion testing relies on mimicking the exposure conditions, often incorporating salt spray and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and exposing the metal to continuous or cyclic conditions similar to those of the corrosive environment. Their reliability to correlate to atmospheric exposure test results is often a concern when determining the timescale to which the accelerated tests can be related. Accelerated corrosion testing has yet to be universally accepted as a useful tool in predicting the long-term service life of a metal, despite its ability to rapidly induce corrosion. Although visual and mass loss methods of evaluating corrosion are the standard, and their use is crucial, a method that correlates timescales from accelerated testing to atmospheric exposure would be very valuable. This paper presents work that began with the characterization of the atmospheric environment at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Beachside Corrosion Test Site. The chemical changes that occur on low carbon steel, during atmospheric and accelerated corrosion conditions, were investigated using surface chemistry analytical methods. The corrosion rates and behaviors of panels subjected to long-term and accelerated corrosion conditions, involving neutral salt fog and alternating seawater spray, were compared to identify possible timescale correlations between accelerated and long-term corrosion performance. The results, as well as preliminary findings on the correlation investigation, are presented.

The Parable of the Sower and the Long-Term Effects of Early Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suggate, Sebastian P.

2015-01-01

Previous work on the long-term effects of early reading focuses on whether children can read early (i.e. capability) not on whether this is beneficial (i.e. optimality). The Luke Effect is introduced to predict long-term reading development as a function of when children learn to read. A review of correlational, intervention, and comparative…

Effects of perceptual body image distortion and early weight gain on long-term outcome of adolescent anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Boehm, Ilka; Finke, Beatrice; Tam, Friederike I; Fittig, Eike; Scholz, Michael; Gantchev, Krassimir; Roessner, Veit; Ehrlich, Stefan

2016-12-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN), a severe mental disorder with an onset during adolescence, has been found to be difficult to treat. Identifying variables that predict long-term outcome may help to develop better treatment strategies. Since body image distortion and weight gain are central elements of diagnosis and treatment of AN, the current study investigated perceptual body image distortion, defined as the accuracy of evaluating one's own perceived body size in relation to the actual body size, as well as total and early weight gain during inpatient treatment as predictors for long-term outcome in a sample of 76 female adolescent AN patients. Long-term outcome was defined by physical, psychological and psychosocial adjustment using the Morgan-Russell outcome assessment schedule as well as by the mere physical outcome consisting of menses and/or BMI approximately 3 years after treatment. Perceptual body image distortion and early weight gain predicted long-term outcome (explained variance 13.3 %), but not the physical outcome alone. This study provides first evidence for an association of perceptual body image distortion with long-term outcome of adolescent anorexia nervosa and underlines the importance of sufficient early weight gain.

An information theoretic approach of designing sparse kernel adaptive filters.

PubMed

Liu, Weifeng; Park, Il; Principe, José C

2009-12-01

This paper discusses an information theoretic approach of designing sparse kernel adaptive filters. To determine useful data to be learned and remove redundant ones, a subjective information measure called surprise is introduced. Surprise captures the amount of information a datum contains which is transferable to a learning system. Based on this concept, we propose a systematic sparsification scheme, which can drastically reduce the time and space complexity without harming the performance of kernel adaptive filters. Nonlinear regression, short term chaotic time-series prediction, and long term time-series forecasting examples are presented.

Predicting mortality over different time horizons: which data elements are needed?

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin A; Pencina, Michael J; Montez-Rath, Maria E; Winkelmayer, Wolfgang C

2017-01-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) are a resource for "big data" analytics, containing a variety of data elements. We investigate how different categories of information contribute to prediction of mortality over different time horizons among patients undergoing hemodialysis treatment. We derived prediction models for mortality over 7 time horizons using EHR data on older patients from a national chain of dialysis clinics linked with administrative data using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression. We assessed how different categories of information relate to risk assessment and compared discrete models to time-to-event models. The best predictors used all the available data (c-statistic ranged from 0.72-0.76), with stronger models in the near term. While different variable groups showed different utility, exclusion of any particular group did not lead to a meaningfully different risk assessment. Discrete time models performed better than time-to-event models. Different variable groups were predictive over different time horizons, with vital signs most predictive for near-term mortality and demographic and comorbidities more important in long-term mortality. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recognition of predictors for mid-long term runoff prediction based on lasso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Reliable and accuracy mid-long term runoff prediction is of great importance in integrated management of reservoir. And many methods are proposed to model runoff time series. Almost all forecast lead times (LT) of these models are 1 month, and the predictors are previous runoff with different time lags. However, runoff prediction with increased LT, which is more beneficial, is not popular in current researches. It is because the connection between previous runoff and current runoff will be weakened with the increase of LT. So 74 atmospheric circulation factors (ACFs) together with pre-runoff are used as alternative predictors for mid-long term runoff prediction of Longyangxia reservoir in this study. Because pre-runoff and 74 ACFs with different time lags are so many and most of these factors are useless, lasso, which means `least absolutely shrinkage and selection operator', is used to recognize predictors. And the result demonstrates that 74 ACFs are beneficial for runoff prediction in both validation and test sets when LT is greater than 6. And there are 6 factors other than pre-runoff, most of which are with big time lag, are selected as predictors frequently. In order to verify the effect of 74 ACFs, 74 stochastic time series generated from normalized 74 ACFs are used as input of model. The result shows that these 74 stochastic time series are useless, which confirm the effect of 74 ACFs on mid-long term runoff prediction.

Proton MRS in acute traumatic brain injury: role for glutamate/glutamine and choline for outcome prediction.

PubMed

Shutter, Lori; Tong, Karen A; Holshouser, Barbara A

2004-12-01

Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is being used to evaluate individuals with acute traumatic brain injury and several studies have shown that changes in certain brain metabolites (N-acetylaspartate, choline) are associated with poor neurologic outcomes. The majority of previous MRS studies have been obtained relatively late after injury and none have examined the role of glutamate/ glutamine (Glx). We conducted a prospective MRS study of 42 severely injured adults to measure quantitative metabolite changes early (7 days) after injury in normal appearing brain. We used these findings to predict long-term neurologic outcome and to determine if MRS data alone or in combination with clinical outcome variables provided better prediction of long-term outcomes. We found that glutamate/glutamine (Glx) and choline (Cho) were significantly elevated in occipital gray and parietal white matter early after injury in patients with poor long-term (6-12-month) outcomes. Glx and Cho ratios predicted long-term outcome with 94% accuracy and when combined with the motor Glasgow Coma Scale score provided the highest predictive accuracy (97%). Somatosensory evoked potentials were not as accurate as MRS data in predicting outcome. Elevated Glx and Cho are more sensitive indicators of injury and predictors of poor outcome when spectroscopy is done early after injury. This may be a reflection of early excitotoxic injury (i.e., elevated Glx) and of injury associated with membrane disruption (i.e., increased Cho) secondary to diffuse axonal injury.

Effect of steady flight loads on JT9D-7 performance deterioration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jay, A.; Todd, E. S.

1978-01-01

Short term engine deterioration occurs in less than 250 flights on a new engine and in the first flights following engine repair; while long term deterioration involves primarily hot section distress and compression system losses which occur at a somewhat slower rate. The causes for short-term deterioration are associated with clearance changes which occur in the flight environment. Analytical techniques utilized to examine the effects of flight loads and engine operating conditions on performance deterioration are presented. The role of gyroscopic, gravitational, and aerodynamic loads are discussed along with the effect of variations in engine build clearances. These analytical results are compared to engine test data along with the correlation between analytically predicted and measured clearances and rub patterns. Conclusions are drawn and important issues are discussed.

The Effects of Compensatory Scanning Training on Mobility in Patients with Homonymous Visual Field Defects: Further Support, Predictive Variables and Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Melis-Dankers, Bart J. M.; Brouwer, Wiebo H.; Tucha, Oliver; Heutink, Joost

2016-01-01

Introduction People with homonymous visual field defects (HVFD) often report difficulty detecting obstacles in the periphery on their blind side in time when moving around. Recently, a randomized controlled trial showed that the InSight-Hemianopia Compensatory Scanning Training (IH-CST) specifically improved detection of peripheral stimuli and avoiding obstacles when moving around, especially in dual task situations. Method The within-group training effects of the previously reported IH-CST are examined in an extended patient group. Performance of patients with HVFD on a pre-assessment, post-assessment and follow-up assessment and performance of a healthy control group are compared. Furthermore, it is examined whether training effects can be predicted by demographic characteristics, variables related to the visual disorder, and neuropsychological test results. Results Performance on both subjective and objective measures of mobility-related scanning was improved after training, while no evidence was found for improvement in visual functions (including visual fields), reading, visual search and dot counting. Self-reported improvement did not correlate with improvement in objective mobility performance. According to the participants, the positive effects were still present six to ten months after training. No demographic characteristics, variables related to the visual disorder, and neuropsychological test results were found to predict the size of training effect, although some inconclusive evidence was found for more improvement in patients with left-sided HVFD than in patients with right-sided HFVD. Conclusion Further support was found for a positive effect of IH-CST on detection of visual stimuli during mobility-related activities specifically. Based on the reports given by patients, these effects appear to be long-term effects. However, no conclusions can be drawn on the objective long-term training effects. PMID:27935973

Predictive Modelling of Operative Performance by Means of Personality Traits - Implications for Selection of Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-02

Inc., Hillsdale. Matsumoto , D., & LeRoux, J. (2003). Measuring the psychological engine of intercultural adjustment: The Intercultural Adjustment...Report 3. DATES COVERED (From – To) 12 September 2007 - 12-Sep-09 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Cognitive and Personality Determinants of Cultural ...training since long form corner stones for effective military operations. 15. SUBJECT TERMS EOARD, Psychology , Cognition 16

Accelerated life testing effects on CMOS microcircuit characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Accelerated life tests were performed on CMOS microcircuits to predict their long term reliability. The consistency of the CMOS microcircuit activation energy between the range of 125 C to 200 C and the range 200 C to 250 C was determined. Results indicate CMOS complexity and the amount of moisture detected inside the devices after testing influences time to failure of tested CMOS devices.

Geothermal reservoir simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, J. W., Jr.; Faust, C.; Pinder, G. F.

1974-01-01

The prediction of long-term geothermal reservoir performance and the environmental impact of exploiting this resource are two important problems associated with the utilization of geothermal energy for power production. Our research effort addresses these problems through numerical simulation. Computer codes based on the solution of partial-differential equations using finite-element techniques are being prepared to simulate multiphase energy transport, energy transport in fractured porous reservoirs, well bore phenomena, and subsidence.

A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

2017-06-01

Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn

1975-01-01

The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)

Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.

PubMed

Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya

2017-02-01

Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.

Executive functioning deficits in young adult survivors of bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

PubMed

Gough, Aisling; Linden, Mark A; Spence, Dale; Halliday, Henry L; Patterson, Christopher C; McGarvey, Lorcan

2015-01-01

To assess long-term impairments of executive functioning in adult survivors of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Participants were assessed on measures of executive functioning, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and social functioning. Survivors of BPD (n = 63; 34 males; mean age 24.2 years) were compared with groups comprising preterm (without BPD) (<1500 g; n = 45) and full-term controls (n = 63). Analysis of variance was used to explore differences among groups for outcome measures. Multiple regression analyzes were performed to identify factors predictive of long-term outcomes. Significantly more BPD adults, compared with preterm and term controls, showed deficits in executive functioning relating to problem solving (OR: 5.1, CI: 1.4-19.3), awareness of behavior (OR: 12.7, CI: 1.5-106.4) and organization of their environment (OR: 13.0, CI: 1.6-107.1). Birth weight, HRQoL and social functioning were predictive of deficits in executive functioning. This study represents the largest sample of survivors into adulthood of BPD and is the first to show that deficits in executive functioning persist. Children with BPD should be assessed to identify cognitive impairments and allow early intervention aimed at ameliorating their effects. Implications for Rehabilitation Adults born preterm with very-low birth weight, and particularly those who develop BPD, are at increased risk of exhibiting defects in executive functioning. Clinicians and educators should be made aware of the impact that BPD can have on the long-term development of executive functions. Children and young adults identified as having BPD should be periodically monitored to identify the need for possible intervention.

Discovering Pediatric Asthma Phenotypes on the Basis of Response to Controller Medication Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Ross, Mindy K; Yoon, Jinsung; van der Schaar, Auke; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

Pediatric asthma has variable underlying inflammation and symptom control. Approaches to addressing this heterogeneity, such as clustering methods to find phenotypes and predict outcomes, have been investigated. However, clustering based on the relationship between treatment and clinical outcome has not been performed, and machine learning approaches for long-term outcome prediction in pediatric asthma have not been studied in depth. Our objectives were to use our novel machine learning algorithm, predictor pursuit (PP), to discover pediatric asthma phenotypes on the basis of asthma control in response to controller medications, to predict longitudinal asthma control among children with asthma, and to identify features associated with asthma control within each discovered pediatric phenotype. We applied PP to the Childhood Asthma Management Program study data (n = 1,019) to discover phenotypes on the basis of asthma control between assigned controller therapy groups (budesonide vs. nedocromil). We confirmed PP's ability to discover phenotypes using the Asthma Clinical Research Network/Childhood Asthma Research and Education network data. We next predicted children's asthma control over time and compared PP's performance with that of traditional prediction methods. Last, we identified clinical features most correlated with asthma control in the discovered phenotypes. Four phenotypes were discovered in both datasets: allergic not obese (A + /O - ), obese not allergic (A - /O + ), allergic and obese (A + /O + ), and not allergic not obese (A - /O - ). Of the children with well-controlled asthma in the Childhood Asthma Management Program dataset, we found more nonobese children treated with budesonide than with nedocromil (P = 0.015) and more obese children treated with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.008). Within the obese group, more A + /O + children's asthma was well controlled with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.022) or with placebo (P = 0.011). The PP algorithm performed significantly better (P < 0.001) than traditional machine learning algorithms for both short- and long-term asthma control prediction. Asthma control and bronchodilator response were the features most predictive of short-term asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Bronchodilator response and serum eosinophils were the most predictive features of asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Advanced statistical machine learning approaches can be powerful tools for discovery of phenotypes based on treatment response and can aid in asthma control prediction in complex medical conditions such as asthma.

Long-term Kinetics of Uranyl Desorption from Sediments Under Advective Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shang, Jianying; Liu, Chongxuan; Wang, Zheming

2014-02-15

Long-term (> 4 months) column experiments were performed to investigate the kinetics of uranyl (U(VI)) desorption in sediments collected from the Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford 300 Area. The experimental results were used to evaluate alternative multi-rate surface complexation reaction (SCR) approaches to describe the short- and long-term kinetics of U(VI) desorption under flow conditions. The SCR stoichiometry, equilibrium constants, and multi-rate parameters were independently characterized in batch and stirred flow-cell reactors. Multi-rate SCR models that were either additively constructed using the SCRs for individual size fractions (e.g., Shang et al.,more » 2011), or composite in nature could effectively describe short-term U(VI) desorption under flow conditions. The long-term desorption results, however, revealed that using a labile U concentration measured by carbonate extraction under-estimated desorbable U(VI) and the long-term rate of U(VI) desorption. An alternative modeling approach using total U as the desorbable U(VI) concentration was proposed to overcome this difficulty. This study also found that the gravel size fraction (2-8 mm), which is typically treated as non-reactive in modeling U(VI) reactive transport because of low external surface area, can have an important effect on the U(VI) desorption in the sediment. This study demonstrates an approach to effectively extrapolate U(VI) desorption kinetics for field-scale application, and identifies important parameters and uncertainties affecting model predictions.« less

Analysis of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependeny

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim; Feldmann, Hendrik; Kottmeier, Christoph; MiKlip Module-C Team

2017-04-01

Decadal climate predictions can provide a useful basis for decision making support systems for the public and private sectors. Several generations of decadal hindcasts and predictions have been generated throughout the German research program MiKlip. Together with the global climate predictions computed with MPI-ESM, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for regional downscaling by MiKlip Module-C. The RCMs provide climate information on spatial and temporal scales closer to the needs of potential users. In this study, two downscaled hindcast generations are analysed (named b0 and b1). The respective global generations are both initialized by nudging them towards different reanalysis anomaly fields. An ensemble of five starting years (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001), each comprising ten ensemble members, is used for both generations in order to quantify the regional decadal prediction skill for precipitation and near-surface temperature and wind speed over Europe. All datasets (including hindcasts, observations, reanalysis, and historical MPI-ESM runs) are pre-processed in an analogue manner by (i) removing the long-term trend and (ii) re-gridding to a common grid. Our analysis shows that there is potential for skillful decadal predictions over Europe in the regional MiKlip ensemble, but the skill is not systematic and depends on the PRUDENCE region and the variable. Further, the differences between the two hindcast generations are mostly small. As we used detrended time series, the predictive skill found in our study can probably attributed to reasonable predictions of anomalies which are associated with the natural climate variability. In a sensitivity study, it is shown that the results may strongly change when the long-term trend is kept in the datasets, as here the skill of predicting the long-term trend (e.g. for temperature) also plays a major role. The regionalization of the global ensemble provides an added value for decadal predictions for some complex regions like the Mediterranean and Iberian Peninsula, while for other regions no systematic improvement is found. A clear dependence of the performance of the regional MiKlip system on the ensemble size is detected. For all variables in both hindcast generations, the skill increases when the ensemble is enlarged. The results indicate that a number of ten members is an appropriate ensemble size for decadal predictions over Europe.

Long-term visual outcomes in extremely low-birth-weight children (an American Ophthalmological Society thesis).

PubMed

Spencer, Rand

2006-01-01

The goal is to analyze the long-term visual outcome of extremely low-birth-weight children. This is a retrospective analysis of eyes of extremely low-birth-weight children on whom vision testing was performed. Visual outcomes were studied by analyzing acuity outcomes at >/=36 months of adjusted age, correlating early acuity testing with final visual outcome and evaluating adverse risk factors for vision. Data from 278 eyes are included. Mean birth weight was 731g, and mean gestational age at birth was 26 weeks. 248 eyes had grating acuity outcomes measured at 73 +/- 36 months, and 183 eyes had recognition acuity testing at 76 +/- 39 months. 54% had below normal grating acuities, and 66% had below normal recognition acuities. 27% of grating outcomes and 17% of recognition outcomes were /=3 years of age. A slower-than-normal rate of early visual development was predictive of abnormal grating acuity (P < .0001) and abnormal recognition acuity (P < .0001) at >/=3 years of age. Eyes diagnosed with maximal retinopathy of prematurity in zone I had lower acuity outcomes (P = .0002) than did those with maximal retinopathy of prematurity in zone II/III. Eyes of children born at 28 weeks gestational age. Eyes of children with poorer general health after premature birth had a 5.3 times greater risk of abnormal recognition acuity. Long-term visual development in extremely low-birth-weight infants is problematic and associated with a high risk of subnormal acuity. Early acuity testing is useful in identifying children at greatest risk for long-term visual abnormalities. Gestational age at birth of

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

PubMed Central

Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

2012-01-01

Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (p<0.001), restaurant eating (p=0.042), sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.009), and fried foods (p<0.001), and increased fish consumption (p=0.003). Results were similar in intervention participants; only reduced desserts and fried foods associated with weight loss in controls. At 48 months in the combined population, weight loss was again associated with decreased desserts (p=0.003) and sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.011), but also decreased meats/cheeses (p=0.024) and increased fruits/vegetables (p<0.001). Decreased meats/cheeses predicted weight loss in intervention participants; desserts, sugar-sweetened beverages, and fruits/vegetables were independently associated in controls. Conclusions Changes in eating behaviors were associated with weight change, though important behaviors differed for short- and long-term weight change and by randomization group. Future studies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

Retrospective lifetime dietary patterns predict cognitive performance in community-dwelling older Australians.

PubMed

Hosking, Diane E; Nettelbeck, Ted; Wilson, Carlene; Danthiir, Vanessa

2014-07-28

Dietary intake is a modifiable exposure that may have an impact on cognitive outcomes in older age. The long-term aetiology of cognitive decline and dementia, however, suggests that the relevance of dietary intake extends across the lifetime. In the present study, we tested whether retrospective dietary patterns from the life periods of childhood, early adulthood, adulthood and middle age predicted cognitive performance in a cognitively healthy sample of 352 older Australian adults >65 years. Participants completed the Lifetime Diet Questionnaire and a battery of cognitive tests designed to comprehensively assess multiple cognitive domains. In separate regression models, lifetime dietary patterns were the predictors of cognitive factor scores representing ten constructs derived by confirmatory factor analysis of the cognitive test battery. All regression models were progressively adjusted for the potential confounders of current diet, age, sex, years of education, English as native language, smoking history, income level, apoE ɛ4 status, physical activity, other past dietary patterns and health-related variables. In the adjusted models, lifetime dietary patterns predicted cognitive performance in this sample of older adults. In models additionally adjusted for intake from the other life periods and mechanistic health-related variables, dietary patterns from the childhood period alone reached significance. Higher consumption of the 'coffee and high-sugar, high-fat extras' pattern predicted poorer performance on simple/choice reaction time, working memory, retrieval fluency, short-term memory and reasoning. The 'vegetable and non-processed' pattern negatively predicted simple/choice reaction time, and the 'traditional Australian' pattern positively predicted perceptual speed and retrieval fluency. Identifying early-life dietary antecedents of older-age cognitive performance contributes to formulating strategies for delaying or preventing cognitive decline.

A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayati, M. B.; English, J. M.

1980-01-01

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades.

Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2016-04-01

Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

Role of subdural electrocorticography in prediction of long-term seizure outcome in epilepsy surgery

PubMed Central

Juhász, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age 0.4–23.0 years), who underwent extraoperative ECoG recording prior to cortical resection for alleviation of uncontrolled focal seizures. Patient age, frequency of preoperative seizures, neuroimaging findings, ictal and interictal ECoG measures were preoperatively obtained. The seizure outcome was prospectively measured [follow-up period: 2.5–6.4 years (mean 4.6 years)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined how well preoperative demographic and diagnostic measures predicted long-term seizure outcome. Following the initial cortical resection, Engel Class I, II, III and IV outcomes were noted in 35, 6, 12 and 7 patients, respectively. One child died due to disseminated intravascular coagulation associated with pseudomonas sepsis 2 days after surgery. Univariate regression analyses revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone, higher interictal spike-frequency in the preserved cortex and incomplete removal of cortical abnormalities on neuroimaging were associated with a greater risk of failing to obtain Class I outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone was the only independent predictor of failure to obtain Class I outcome. The goodness of regression model fit and the predictive ability of regression model were greatest in the full regression model incorporating both ictal and interictal measures [R2 0.44; Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: 0.81], slightly smaller in the reduced model incorporating ictal but not interictal measures (R2 0.40; Area under the ROC curve: 0.79) and slightly smaller again in the reduced model incorporating interictal but not ictal measures (R2 0.27; Area under the ROC curve: 0.77). Seizure onset zone and interictal spike frequency measures on subdural ECoG recording may both be useful in predicting the long-term seizure outcome of epilepsy surgery. Yet, the additive clinical impact of interictal spike frequency measures to predict long-term surgical outcome may be modest in the presence of ictal ECoG and neuroimaging data. PMID:19286694

Evaluation of long term health-related quality of life in extensive burns: a 12-year experience in a burn center.

PubMed

Xie, Bing; Xiao, Shi-chu; Zhu, Shi-hui; Xia, Zhao-fan

2012-05-01

We sought to evaluate the long term health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients survived severely extensive burn and identify their clinical predicting factors correlated with HRQOL. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 20 patients survived more than 2 years with extensive burn involving ≥70% total body surface area (TBSA) between 1997 and 2009 in a burn center in Shanghai. Short Form-36 Medical Outcomes Survey (SF-36), Brief Version of Burn Specific Health Scale (BSHS-B) and Michigan Hand Outcome Questionnaire (MHQ) were used for the present evaluation. SF-36 scores were compared with a healthy Chinese population, and linear correlation analysis was performed to screen the clinical relating factors predicting physical and mental component summary (PCS and MCS) scores from SF-36. HRQOL scores from SF-36 were significantly lower in the domains of physical functioning, role limitations due to physical problems, pain, social functioning and role limitations due to emotional problems compared with population norms. Multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that only return to work (RTW) predicted improved PCS. While age at injury, facial burns, skin grafting and length of hospital stay were correlated with MCS. Work, body image and heat sensitivity obtained the lowest BSHS-B scores in all 9 domains. Improvements of HRQOL could still be seen in BSHS-B scores in domains of simple abilities, hand function, work and affect even after a quite long interval between burns and testing. Hand function of extensive burn patients obtained relatively poor MHQ scores, especially in those without RTW. Patients with extensive burns have a poorer quality of life compared with that of general population. Relatively poor physical and psychological problems still exist even after a long period. Meanwhile, a trend of gradual improvements was noted. This information will aid clinicians in decision-making of comprehensive systematic regimens for long term rehabilitation and psychosocial treatment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Lead-related complications after DDD pacemaker implantation.

PubMed

Dębski, Maciej; Ulman, Mateusz; Ząbek, Andrzej; Boczar, Krzysztof; Haberka, Kazimierz; Kuniewicz, Marcin; Lelakowski, Jacek; Małecka, Barbara

2018-04-10

Pacing leads remain the weakest link in pacemaker systems despite advances in manufacturing technology. To assess the long-term pacing lead performance in an unselected real-life cohort following primary DDD pacing system implantation. A single-centre retrospective analysis of patients who underwent DDD pacing system implantation between October 1984 and December 2014 and were followed up until August 2016 was conducted. The inclusion criterion was at least one follow-up visit following post-implant discharge. The performance of each atrial and ventricular lead implanted was evaluated during the follow-up period, and the incidence of and predictive factors for lead dislodgement and failure were analysed. The data of 3771 patients and 24431.8 patient-years of follow-up were analysed. The mean follow-up of patients was 77.7 ± 61.8 months. During the study period, 7887 transvenous atrial and right ventricular pacing leads were implanted. Lead dislodgement occurred in 94 (1.2%) leads [92 (2.4%) patients], perforation in 11 (0.1%) leads [10 (0.3%) patients] and lead failure in 329 (4.2%) leads [275 (7.3%) patients]. Atrial lead position was a predictive factor for lead dislodgement, while age at implantation, polyurethane 80A insulation, subclavian vein access, unipolar lead construction and lead manufacturer were multivariate predictors of lead failure. Leads with polyurethane 80A insulation, unipolar construction and implantation via subclavian vein puncture exhibited the worst long-term performance.

Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

2012-01-01

This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment

PubMed Central

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed Central

Kanamori, H

1996-01-01

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding. Images Fig. 8 PMID:11607657

An Assessment of Long-Term Compliance with Performance Standards in Compensatory Mitigation Wetlands.

PubMed

Van den Bosch, Kyle; Matthews, Jeffrey W

2017-04-01

Under the US Clean Water Act, wetland restoration is used to compensate for adverse impacts to wetlands. Following construction, compensation wetlands are monitored for approximately 5 years to determine if they comply with project-specific performance standards. Once a compensation site complies with performance standards, it is assumed that the site will continue to meet standards indefinitely. However, there have been few assessments of long-term compliance. We surveyed, in 2012, 30 compensation sites 8-20 years after restoration to determine whether projects continued to meet performance standards. Additionally, we compared floristic quality of compensation sites to the quality of adjacent natural wetlands to determine whether wetland condition in compensation sites could be predicted based on the condition of nearby wetlands. Compensation sites met, on average, 65% of standards during the final year of monitoring and 53% of standards in 2012, a significant decrease in compliance. Although forested wetlands often failed to meet standards for planted tree survival, the temporal decrease in compliance was driven by increasing dominance by invasive plants in emergent wetlands. The presumption of continued compliance with performance standards after a 5-year monitoring period was not supported. Wetlands restored near better quality natural wetlands achieved and maintained greater floristic quality, suggesting that landscape context was an important determinant of long-term restoration outcomes. Based on our findings, we recommend that compensation wetlands should be monitored for longer time periods, and we suggest that nearby or adjacent natural wetlands provide good examples of reasonably achievable restoration outcomes in a particular landscape.

Myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support: long-term outcome and elective ventricular assist device implantation to promote recovery as a treatment goal.

PubMed

Dandel, Michael; Hetzer, Roland

2015-01-01

Even after incomplete myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support, long-term survival rates after ventricular assist device (VAD) explantation can be better than those expected after heart transplantation even for patients with chronic non-ischemic cardiomyopathy as the underlying cause for VAD implantation. The elective therapeutic use of ventricular assist devices for heart failure reversal in its early stage is a future goal. It may be possible to achieve it by developing tools to predict heart failure reversibility even before ventricular assist device implantation and increasing the number of weaning candidates by improvement of adjunctive therapies to optimize unloading-promoted recovery.  Special attention is focused on the long-term stability of cardiac remission after VAD removal, the clinical relevance unloading-promoted myocardial recovery and on the current knowledge about a potential prediction of myocardial recovery during long-term VAD support already before VAD implantation.

On the simple random-walk models of ion-channel gate dynamics reflecting long-term memory.

PubMed

Wawrzkiewicz, Agata; Pawelek, Krzysztof; Borys, Przemyslaw; Dworakowska, Beata; Grzywna, Zbigniew J

2012-06-01

Several approaches to ion-channel gating modelling have been proposed. Although many models describe the dwell-time distributions correctly, they are incapable of predicting and explaining the long-term correlations between the lengths of adjacent openings and closings of a channel. In this paper we propose two simple random-walk models of the gating dynamics of voltage and Ca(2+)-activated potassium channels which qualitatively reproduce the dwell-time distributions, and describe the experimentally observed long-term memory quite well. Biological interpretation of both models is presented. In particular, the origin of the correlations is associated with fluctuations of channel mass density. The long-term memory effect, as measured by Hurst R/S analysis of experimental single-channel patch-clamp recordings, is close to the behaviour predicted by our models. The flexibility of the models enables their use as templates for other types of ion channel.

Long-term neighborhood poverty trajectories and obesity in a sample of california mothers.

PubMed

Sheehan, Connor M; Cantu, Phillip A; Powers, Daniel A; Margerison-Zilko, Claire E; Cubbin, Catherine

2017-07-01

Neighborhoods (and people) are not static, and are instead shaped by dynamic long-term processes of change (and mobility). Using the Geographic Research on Wellbeing survey, a population-based sample of 2339 Californian mothers, we characterize then investigate how long-term latent neighborhood poverty trajectories predict the likelihood of obesity, taking into account short-term individual residential mobility. We find that, net of individual and neighborhood-level controls, living in or moving to tracts that experienced long-term low poverty was associated with lower odds of being obese relative to living in tracts characterized by long-term high poverty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why computational models are better than verbal theories: the case of nonword repetition.

PubMed

Jones, Gary; Gobet, Fernand; Freudenthal, Daniel; Watson, Sarah E; Pine, Julian M

2014-03-01

Tests of nonword repetition (NWR) have often been used to examine children's phonological knowledge and word learning abilities. However, theories of NWR primarily explain performance either in terms of phonological working memory or long-term knowledge, with little consideration of how these processes interact. One theoretical account that focuses specifically on the interaction between short-term and long-term memory is the chunking hypothesis. Chunking occurs because of repeated exposure to meaningful stimulus items, resulting in the items becoming grouped (or chunked); once chunked, the items can be represented in short-term memory using one chunk rather than one chunk per item. We tested several predictions of the chunking hypothesis by presenting 5-6-year-old children with three tests of NWR that were either high, medium, or low in wordlikeness. The results did not show strong support for the chunking hypothesis, suggesting that chunking fails to fully explain children's NWR behavior. However, simulations using a computational implementation of chunking (namely CLASSIC, or Chunking Lexical And Sub-lexical Sequences In Children) show that, when the linguistic input to 5-6-year-old children is estimated in a reasonable way, the children's data are matched across all three NWR tests. These results have three implications for the field: (a) a chunking account can explain key NWR phenomena in 5-6-year-old children; (b) tests of chunking accounts require a detailed specification both of the chunking mechanism itself and of the input on which the chunking mechanism operates; and (c) verbal theories emphasizing the role of long-term knowledge (such as chunking) are not precise enough to make detailed predictions about experimental data, but computational implementations of the theories can bridge the gap. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Workaholism vs. work engagement: the two different predictors of future well-being and performance.

PubMed

Shimazu, Akihito; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; Kamiyama, Kimika; Kawakami, Norito

2015-02-01

This study investigated the distinctiveness of two types of heavy work investment (i.e., workaholism and work engagement) by examining their 2-year longitudinal relationships with employee well-being and job performance. Based on a previous cross-sectional study by Shimazu and Schaufeli (Ind Health 47:495-502, 2009) and a shorter term longitudinal study by Shimazu et al. (Ind Health 50:316-21, 2012; measurement interval = 7 months), we predicted that workaholism predicts long-term future unwell-being (i.e., high ill-health and low life satisfaction) and poor job performance, whereas work engagement predicts future well-being (i.e., low ill-health and high life satisfaction) and superior job performance. A two-wave survey was conducted among employees from one Japanese company, and valid data from 1,196 employees was analyzed using structural equation modeling. T1-T2 changes in ill-health, life satisfaction, and job performance were measured as residual scores, which were included in the structural equation model. Workaholism and work engagement were weakly and positively related to each other. In addition, and as expected, workaholism was related to an increase in ill-health and to a decrease in life satisfaction. In contrast, and also as expected, work engagement was related to increases in both life satisfaction and job performance and to a decrease in ill-health. Although workaholism and work engagement are weakly positively related, they constitute two different concepts. More specifically, workaholism has negative consequences across an extended period of 2 years, whereas work engagement has positive consequences in terms of well-being and performance. Hence, workaholism should be prevented and work engagement should be stimulated.

Prediction of successful memory encoding based on single-trial rhinal and hippocampal phase information.

PubMed

Höhne, Marlene; Jahanbekam, Amirhossein; Bauckhage, Christian; Axmacher, Nikolai; Fell, Juergen

2016-10-01

Mediotemporal EEG characteristics are closely related to long-term memory formation. It has been reported that rhinal and hippocampal EEG measures reflecting the stability of phases across trials are better suited to distinguish subsequently remembered from forgotten trials than event-related potentials or amplitude-based measures. Theoretical models suggest that the phase of EEG oscillations reflects neural excitability and influences cellular plasticity. However, while previous studies have shown that the stability of phase values across trials is indeed a relevant predictor of subsequent memory performance, the effect of absolute single-trial phase values has been little explored. Here, we reanalyzed intracranial EEG recordings from the mediotemporal lobe of 27 epilepsy patients performing a continuous word recognition paradigm. Two-class classification using a support vector machine was performed to predict subsequently remembered vs. forgotten trials based on individually selected frequencies and time points. We demonstrate that it is possible to successfully predict single-trial memory formation in the majority of patients (23 out of 27) based on only three single-trial phase values given by a rhinal phase, a hippocampal phase, and a rhinal-hippocampal phase difference. Overall classification accuracy across all subjects was 69.2% choosing frequencies from the range between 0.5 and 50Hz and time points from the interval between -0.5s and 2s. For 19 patients, above chance prediction of subsequent memory was possible even when choosing only time points from the prestimulus interval (overall accuracy: 65.2%). Furthermore, prediction accuracies based on single-trial phase surpassed those based on single-trial power. Our results confirm the functional relevance of mediotemporal EEG phase for long-term memory operations and suggest that phase information may be utilized for memory enhancement applications based on deep brain stimulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data Prediction for Public Events in Professional Domains Based on Improved RNN- LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bonan; Fan, Chunxiao; Wu, Yuexin; Sun, Juanjuan

2018-02-01

The traditional data services of prediction for emergency or non-periodic events usually cannot generate satisfying result or fulfill the correct prediction purpose. However, these events are influenced by external causes, which mean certain a priori information of these events generally can be collected through the Internet. This paper studied the above problems and proposed an improved model—LSTM (Long Short-term Memory) dynamic prediction and a priori information sequence generation model by combining RNN-LSTM and public events a priori information. In prediction tasks, the model is qualified for determining trends, and its accuracy also is validated. This model generates a better performance and prediction results than the previous one. Using a priori information can increase the accuracy of prediction; LSTM can better adapt to the changes of time sequence; LSTM can be widely applied to the same type of prediction tasks, and other prediction tasks related to time sequence.

Spectral model for long-term computation of thermodynamics and potential evaporation in shallow wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Fuente, Alberto; Meruane, Carolina

2017-09-01

Altiplanic wetlands are unique ecosystems located in the elevated plateaus of Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia. These ecosystems are under threat due to changes in land use, groundwater extractions, and climate change that will modify the water balance through changes in precipitation and evaporation rates. Long-term prediction of the fate of aquatic ecosystems imposes computational constraints that make finding a solution impossible in some cases. In this article, we present a spectral model for long-term simulations of the thermodynamics of shallow wetlands in the limit case when the water depth tends to zero. This spectral model solves for water and sediment temperature, as well as heat, momentum, and mass exchanged with the atmosphere. The parameters of the model (water depth, thermal properties of the sediments, and surface albedo) and the atmospheric downscaling were calibrated using the MODIS product of the land surface temperature. Moreover, the performance of the daily evaporation rates predicted by the model was evaluated against daily pan evaporation data measured between 1964 and 2012. The spectral model was able to correctly represent both seasonal fluctuation and climatic trends observed in daily evaporation rates. It is concluded that the spectral model presented in this article is a suitable tool for assessing the global climate change effects on shallow wetlands whose thermodynamics is forced by heat exchanges with the atmosphere and modulated by the heat-reservoir role of the sediments.

Study on creep of fiber reinforced ultra-high strength concrete based on strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Wenjun; Wang, Tao

2018-04-01

To complement the creep performance of ultra-high strength concrete, the long creep process of fiber reinforced concrete was studied in this paper. The long-term creep process and regularity of ultra-high strength concrete with 0.5% PVA fiber under the same axial compression were analyzed by using concrete strength (C80/C100/C120) as a variable. The results show that the creep coefficient of ultra-high strength concrete decreases with the increase of concrete strength. Compared with ACI209R (92), GL2000 models, it is found that the predicted value of ACI209R (92) are close to the experimental value, and the creep prediction model suitable for this experiment is proposed based on ACI209R (92).

Prognostic value of tumour regression grade in locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kong, J C; Guerra, G R; Warrier, S K; Lynch, A Craig; Michael, M; Ngan, S Y; Phillips, W; Ramsay, G; Heriot, A G

2018-03-27

The current standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer involves neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision. There is a spectrum of response to neoadjuvant therapy; however, the prognostic value of tumour regression grade (TRG) in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) or overall survival (OS) is inconsistent in the literature. This study was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A systematic search was undertaken using Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were Stage II and III locally advanced rectal cancer treated with long-course CRT followed by radical surgery. The aim of the meta-analysis was to assess the prognostic implication of each TRG for rectal cancer following neoadjuvant CRT. Long-term prognosis was assessed. The main outcome measures were DFS and OS. A random effects model was performed to pool the hazard ratio (HR) from all included studies. There were 4875 patients from 17 studies, with 775 (15.9%) attaining a pathological complete response (pCR) and 719 (29.9%) with no response. A significant association with OS was identified from a pooled-estimated HR for pCR (HR = 0.47, P = 0.002) and nonresponding tumours (HR = 2.97; P < 0.001). Previously known tumour characteristics, such as ypN, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion, were also significantly associated with DFS and OS, with estimated pooled HRs of 2.2, 1.4 and 2.3, respectively. In conclusion, the degree of TRG was of prognostic value in predicting long-term outcomes. The current challenge is the development of a high-validity tests to predict pCR. Colorectal Disease © 2018 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Influence of family environment on long-term psychosocial functioning of adolescents with juvenile fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Sil, Soumitri; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Ting, Tracy V; Peugh, James; Noll, Jennie; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2013-06-01

Little is known about the impact of family environment on the long-term adjustment of patients with juvenile-onset fibromyalgia (JFM). Our objective was to evaluate whether family environment in early adolescence predicted later physical functioning and depressive symptoms of adolescents with JFM as they transitioned to early adulthood in the context of a controlled long-term followup study. Participants consisted of 39 youth (mean age 18.7 years) with JFM and 38 healthy matched controls who completed web-based surveys about their health status (Short Form 36 health survey) and depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory II) ~4 years after a home-based, in-person assessment of child and family functioning. During the initial assessment, parents of the participants (94% mothers) completed the Family Environment Scale and adolescents (mean age 14.8 years) completed self-report questionnaires about pain (visual analog scale) and depressive symptoms (Children's Depression Inventory). The results indicated that family environment during early adolescence significantly predicted greater depressive symptoms in early adulthood for both the JFM group and the healthy controls. In particular, a controlling family environment (use of rules to control the family and allowing little independence) during early adolescence was the driving factor in predicting poorer long-term emotional functioning for patients with JFM. Family environment did not significantly predict longer-term physical impairment for either group. Adolescents with JFM from controlling family environments are at an increased risk for poorer emotional functioning in early adulthood. Behavioral and family interventions should foster independent coping among adolescents with JFM and greater parenting flexibility to enhance successful long-term coping. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosz, J.

2001-12-01

The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

Numerical Simulation of cardiovascular deconditioning in different reduced gravity exposure scenarios. Parabolic flight validation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Poch, Antoni; Gonzalez, Daniel

Numerical models and simulations are an emerging area of research in human physiology. As complex numerical models are available, along with high-speed computing technologies, it is possible to produce more accurate predictions of the long-term effects of reduced gravity on the human body. NELME (Numerical Emulation of Long-Term Microgravity Effects) has been developed as an electrical-like control system model of the pysiological changes that may arise when gravity changes are applied to the cardiovascular system. Validation of the model has been carried out in parabolic flights at UPC BarcelonaTech Platform. A number of parabolas of up to 8 seconds were performed at Sabadell Airport with an aerobatic single-engine CAP10B plane capable of performing such maneuvres. Heart rate, arterial pressure, and gravity data was collected and compared to the output obtained from the model in order to optimize its parameters. The model is then able to perform simulations for long-term periods of exposure to microgravity, and then the risk for a major malfunction is evaluated. Vascular resistance is known to be impaired during a long-term mission. This effects are not fully understood, and the model is capable of providing a continuous thread of simulated scenarios, while varying gravity in a nearly-continuous way. Aerobic exercise as countermeasure has been simulated as a periodic perturbation into the simulated physiological system. Results are discussed in terms of the validaty and reliability of the outcomes from the model, that have been found compatible with the available data in the literature. Different gender sensitivities to microgravity exposure are discussed. Also thermal stress along with exercise, as it happens in the case of Extravehicular activity is smulated. Results show that vascular resistance is significantly impared (p<0,05) at gravity levels less than 0,4g, when exposed for a period of time longer than 16 days. This degree of impairement is comparable with that resulting from a microgravity exposure. These results suggest that long-term activities on the surface of Mars may have a greater impact on the cardiovascular health than previously thought.

Impact of previous vascular burden on in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Consuegra-Sánchez, Luciano; Melgarejo-Moreno, Antonio; Galcerá-Tomás, José; Alonso-Fernández, Nuria; Díaz-Pastor, Angela; Escudero-García, Germán; Jaulent-Huertas, Leticia; Vicente-Gilabert, Marta

2014-06-01

Patients with a current acute coronary syndrome and previous ischemic heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and/or cerebrovascular disease are reported to have a poorer outcome than those without these previous conditions. It is uncertain whether this association with outcome is observed at long-term follow-up. Prospective observational study, including 4247 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Detailed clinical data and information on previous ischemic heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and cerebrovascular disease ("vascular burden") were recorded. Multivariate models were performed for in-hospital and long-term (median, 7.2 years) all-cause mortality. One vascular territory was affected in 1131 (26.6%) patients and ≥ 2 territories in 221 (5.2%). The total in-hospital mortality rate was 12.3% and the long-term incidence density was 3.5 deaths per 100 patient-years. A background of previous ischemic heart disease (odds ratio = 0.83; P = .35), peripheral arterial disease (odds ratio = 1.30; P = .34), or cerebrovascular disease (stroke) (odds ratio = 1.15; P = .59) was not independently predictive of in-hospital death. In an adjusted model, previous cerebrovascular disease and previous peripheral arterial disease were both predictors of mortality at long-term follow-up (hazard ratio = 1.57; P < .001; and hazard ratio = 1.34; P = .001; respectively). Patients with ≥ 2 diseased vascular territories showed higher long-term mortality (hazard ratio = 2.35; P < .001), but not higher in-hospital mortality (odds ratio = 1.07; P = .844). In patients with a diagnosis of ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction, the previous vascular burden determines greater long-term mortality. Considered individually, previous cerebrovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease were predictors of mortality at long-term after hospital discharge. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the development of a life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells which are intended to operate for twenty years or more in a terrestrial environment. Such a methodology, or solar cell life prediction model, requires the development of quantitative intermediate relationships between local environmental stress parameters and the basic chemical mechanisms of encapsulant aging leading to solar cell failures. The use of accelerated/abbreviated testing to develop these intermediate relationships and in revealing failure modes is discussed. Current field and demonstration tests of solar cell arrays and the present laboratory tests to qualify solar module designs provide very little data applicable to predicting the long-term performance of encapsulated solar cells. An approach to enhancing the value of such field tests to provide data for life prediction is described.

Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

PubMed

Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-10-05

Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and transcatheter aortic valve implantation--A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liao, Yan-Biao; He, Ze-Xia; Zhao, Zhen-Gang; Wei, Xin; Zuo, Zhi-Liang; Li, Yi-Jian; Xiong, Tian-Yuan; Xu, Yuan-Ning; Feng, Yuan; Chen, Mao

2016-03-01

The present study was performed to investigate the relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Controversies regarding the relationship between COPD and TAVI have intensified. A literature review of the PubMed online database was performed, and articles published between January 1, 2002 and March 20, 2015 were analyzed. Random-effect and fixed-effect models were used, depending on the between-study heterogeneity. A total of 28 studies, involving 51,530 patients, were identified in our review. The burden of COPD ranged from 12.5% to 43.4%, and COPD negatively impacted both short-term and long-term all-cause survival (30 days: odds ratio [OR], 1.43, 95% CI, 1.14-1.79; >2 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.34, 95% CI, 1.12-1.61). COPD was also associated with increased short-term and mid-term cardiac-cause mortality (30 days: OR, 1.29, 95% CI, 1.02-1.64; 1 year: HR: 1.09, 1.02-1.17). Moreover, COPD (OR, 1.97, 95% CI, 1.29-3.0) predicted post-TAVI acute kidney disease. Importantly, chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR, 1.2, 95% CI, 1.1-1.32) and the distance of the 6 minute walk test (6MWT) (HR, 1.16, 1.06-1.27) predicted TAVI futility in patients with COPD. COPD is common among patients undergoing TAVI, and COPD impacts both short- and long-term survival. COPD patients, who had a lower BMI, shorter distance of 6MWT and CKD, were at higher risk for TAVI futility. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term bridge performance high priority bridge performance issues.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Bridge performance is a multifaceted issue involving performance of materials and protective systems, : performance of individual components of the bridge, and performance of the structural system as a whole. The : Long-Term Bridge Performance (LTBP)...

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE PAGES

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.; ...

2017-10-29

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

A 20-year review of pectus surgery: an analysis of factors predictive of recurrence and outcomes.

PubMed

Tikka, Theofano; Kalkat, Maninder S; Bishay, Ehab; Steyn, Richard S; Rajesh, Pala B; Naidu, Babu

2016-12-01

Only a few studies report the long-term outcomes following repair of pectus excavatum (PE) and pectus carinatum (PC). Predictors of recurrence after surgery are important in this group of young patients. The purpose of this study was to assess the short- and long-term outcomes of both PE and PC and identify factors associated with postoperative complications and pectus recurrence. This was a retrospective observational study that included all patients who underwent primary or recurrent repair of PC and PE in a regional thoracic centre over 20 years. Patients' demographics, type of surgery, complications and recurrence were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors predictive of pectus recurrence. A total of 297 patients were included (262 men and 35 women). The mean age was 19.8 years (95% CI 19.3-20.5). A total of 169 patients had surgery for PE and 127 for PC. A total of 243 patients had a modified Ravitch procedure (166 without a bar) and 53 patients underwent the Nuss repair. The main postoperative complications were wound infection and bleeding or haematoma. The recurrence rate over the mean follow-up period of 8.6 years was 10%. In PE, patients treated with the Ravitch procedure with the bar experienced more complications. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that PE patients who developed a complication had a significantly increased chance of recurrence. No risk factors were linked with recurrence of PC. Life-transforming pectus surgery can be performed with low morbidity and good long-term outcomes. Recurrence of PE deformity is associated with the development of postoperative complications. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

On the long-term stability of terrestrial reference frame solutions based on Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Benedikt; Gross, Richard S.; Abbondanza, Claudio; Chin, Toshio M.; Heflin, Michael B.; Parker, Jay W.; Wu, Xiaoping; Nilsson, Tobias; Glaser, Susanne; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Heinkelmann, Robert; Schuh, Harald

2018-06-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System requirement for the long-term stability of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame is 0.1 mm/year, motivated by rigorous sea level studies. Furthermore, high-quality station velocities are of great importance for the prediction of future station coordinates, which are fundamental for several geodetic applications. In this study, we investigate the performance of predictions from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) terrestrial reference frames (TRFs) based on Kalman filtering. The predictions are computed by extrapolating the deterministic part of the coordinate model. As observational data, we used over 4000 VLBI sessions between 1980 and the middle of 2016. In order to study the predictions, we computed VLBI TRF solutions only from the data until the end of 2013. The period of 2014 until 2016.5 was used to validate the predictions of the TRF solutions against the measured VLBI station coordinates. To assess the quality, we computed average WRMS values from the coordinate differences as well as from estimated Helmert transformation parameters, in particular, the scale. We found that the results significantly depend on the level of process noise used in the filter. While larger values of process noise allow the TRF station coordinates to more closely follow the input data (decrease in WRMS of about 45%), the TRF predictions exhibit larger deviations from the VLBI station coordinates after 2014 (WRMS increase of about 15%). On the other hand, lower levels of process noise improve the predictions, making them more similar to those of solutions without process noise. Furthermore, our investigations show that additionally estimating annual signals in the coordinates does not significantly impact the results. Finally, we computed TRF solutions mimicking a potential real-time TRF and found significant improvements over the other investigated solutions, all of which rely on extrapolating the coordinate model for their predictions, with WRMS reductions of almost 50%.

Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection.

PubMed Central

Woolliams, J A; Bijma, P

2000-01-01

Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (DeltaF) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship between squared long-term genetic contributions and rates of inbreeding was extended to nonrandom mating and to overlapping generations. DeltaF was shown to be approximately (1)/(4)(1 - omega) times the expected sum of squared lifetime contributions, where omega is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. This relationship cannot be used for prediction since it is based upon observed quantities. Therefore, the relationship was further developed to express DeltaF in terms of expected long-term contributions that are conditional on a set of selective advantages that relate the selection processes in two consecutive generations and are predictable quantities. With random mating, if selected family sizes are assumed to be independent Poisson variables then the expected long-term contribution could be substituted for the observed, providing (1)/(4) (since omega = 0) was increased to (1)/(2). Established theory was used to provide a correction term to account for deviations from the Poisson assumptions. The equations were successfully applied, using simple linear models, to the problem of predicting DeltaF with sib indices in discrete generations since previously published solutions had proved complex. PMID:10747074

Effects of Anterior Capsulotomy on Decision Making in Patients with Refractory Obsessive–Compulsive Disorder

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chencheng; Chen, Yilin; Tian, Shuaiwei; Wang, Tao; Xie, Yile; Jin, Haiyan; Lin, Guozhen; Gong, Hengfen; Zeljic, Kristina; Sun, Bomin; Yang, Tianming; Zhan, Shikun

2017-01-01

Despite various lines of evidence implicating impaired decision-making ability in individuals with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD), neuropsychological investigation has generated inconsistent findings. Although the cortico-striato-thalamo-cortical (CSTC) circuitry has been suggested, the involvement of the cortex has not yet been fully demonstrated. Moreover, it is unknown whether surgical intervention on the CSTC circuitry results in a predicted improvement of decision-making ability of OCD. Here we present a study of decision making based on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to investigate decision making in a large sample of individuals with treatment-resistant OCD with and without anterior capsulotomy (AC). Task performance was evaluated in healthy subjects, individuals with OCD that had not undergone surgery, and postsurgical OCD patients with AC. The latter group was further divided into a short-term postsurgical group and a long-term postsurgical group. We found that the OCD patients without surgery performed significantly worse than the healthy controls on the IGT. There were no significant differences in decision-making between the presurgical OCD patients and those at the short-term postsurgical follow-up. Decision-making ability of the long-term postsurgical OCD patients was improved to the level comparable to that of healthy controls. All clinical symptoms (OCD, depression, and anxiety) assessed by psychiatric rating scales were significantly alleviated post-surgically, but exhibited no correlation with their IGT task performance. Our findings provide strong evidence that OCD is linked to impairments in decision-making ability; that impaired CSTC circuitry function is directly involved in the manifestation of OCD; and that AC related improvements in cognitive functions are caused by long-term plasticity in the brain circuitry. PMID:29089909

Effects of Anterior Capsulotomy on Decision Making in Patients with Refractory Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

PubMed

Zhang, Chencheng; Chen, Yilin; Tian, Shuaiwei; Wang, Tao; Xie, Yile; Jin, Haiyan; Lin, Guozhen; Gong, Hengfen; Zeljic, Kristina; Sun, Bomin; Yang, Tianming; Zhan, Shikun

2017-01-01

Despite various lines of evidence implicating impaired decision-making ability in individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), neuropsychological investigation has generated inconsistent findings. Although the cortico-striato-thalamo-cortical (CSTC) circuitry has been suggested, the involvement of the cortex has not yet been fully demonstrated. Moreover, it is unknown whether surgical intervention on the CSTC circuitry results in a predicted improvement of decision-making ability of OCD. Here we present a study of decision making based on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to investigate decision making in a large sample of individuals with treatment-resistant OCD with and without anterior capsulotomy (AC). Task performance was evaluated in healthy subjects, individuals with OCD that had not undergone surgery, and postsurgical OCD patients with AC. The latter group was further divided into a short-term postsurgical group and a long-term postsurgical group. We found that the OCD patients without surgery performed significantly worse than the healthy controls on the IGT. There were no significant differences in decision-making between the presurgical OCD patients and those at the short-term postsurgical follow-up. Decision-making ability of the long-term postsurgical OCD patients was improved to the level comparable to that of healthy controls. All clinical symptoms (OCD, depression, and anxiety) assessed by psychiatric rating scales were significantly alleviated post-surgically, but exhibited no correlation with their IGT task performance. Our findings provide strong evidence that OCD is linked to impairments in decision-making ability; that impaired CSTC circuitry function is directly involved in the manifestation of OCD; and that AC related improvements in cognitive functions are caused by long-term plasticity in the brain circuitry.

Flight experience of solar mesosphere explorer's power system over high temperatures ranges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faber, Jack; Hurley, Daniel

1987-01-01

The performance of the power system on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) satellite for the life of the mission and the techniques used to ensure power system health are summarized. Early in the mission high cell imbalances in one of the batteries resulted in a loading scheme which attempted to minimize the cell imbalances without causing an undervoltage condition. A short term model of the power system allowed planners to predict depth of discharge using the latest available data. Due to expected orbital shifts the solar arrays experience extended periods of no eclipse. This has required special conditioning schemes to keep the batteries healthy when the eclipses return. Analysis of the SME data indicates long term health of the SME power system as long as the conditioning scheme is continued.

Officer Individual Differences: Predicting Long-Term Continuance and Performance in the U.S. Army

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

Psychology, 51, 321-355. doi: 10.1111/j.1744-6570.1998.tb00728.x Wood, R., & Bandura , A. (1989). Social cognitive theory of organizational management...for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. U.S...Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Department of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff, G1 Authorized and approved for

Civil Society as a Game Changer: A Comparative Study of Political Transitions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

uses these criteria to predict the long term prospects of democratization in the four countries studied: Poland, Russia, Tunisia, and Egypt . The... Egypt , Poland, Russia 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 181 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION...and uses these criteria to predict the long term prospects of democratization in the four countries studied: Poland, Russia, Tunisia, and Egypt

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex

2015-10-26

Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less

Validation of systems biology derived molecular markers of renal donor organ status associated with long term allograft function.

PubMed

Perco, Paul; Heinzel, Andreas; Leierer, Johannes; Schneeberger, Stefan; Bösmüller, Claudia; Oberhuber, Rupert; Wagner, Silvia; Engler, Franziska; Mayer, Gert

2018-05-03

Donor organ quality affects long term outcome after renal transplantation. A variety of prognostic molecular markers is available, yet their validity often remains undetermined. A network-based molecular model reflecting donor kidney status based on transcriptomics data and molecular features reported in scientific literature to be associated with chronic allograft nephropathy was created. Significantly enriched biological processes were identified and representative markers were selected. An independent kidney pre-implantation transcriptomics dataset of 76 organs was used to predict estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values twelve months after transplantation using available clinical data and marker expression values. The best-performing regression model solely based on the clinical parameters donor age, donor gender, and recipient gender explained 17% of variance in post-transplant eGFR values. The five molecular markers EGF, CD2BP2, RALBP1, SF3B1, and DDX19B representing key molecular processes of the constructed renal donor organ status molecular model in addition to the clinical parameters significantly improved model performance (p-value = 0.0007) explaining around 33% of the variability of eGFR values twelve months after transplantation. Collectively, molecular markers reflecting donor organ status significantly add to prediction of post-transplant renal function when added to the clinical parameters donor age and gender.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

PubMed Central

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-01-01

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction. PMID:28672867

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

PubMed

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Psychosocial issues in long-term space flight: overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palinkas, L. A.

2001-01-01

Anecdotal evidence of the individual and interpersonal problems that occurred during the Shuttle-Mir Space Program (SMSP) and other long-duration Russian/Soviet missions, and studies of personnel in other isolated and confined extreme (ICE) environments suggest that psychosocial elements of behavior and performance are likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of long-duration missions in space. This impact may range from individual decrements in performance, health and well being, to catastrophic mission failure. This paper reviews our current understanding of the psychosocial issues related to long duration space missions according to three different domains of behavior: the individual domain, the interpersonal domain and the organizational domain. Individual issues include: personality characteristics that predict successful performance, stress due to isolation and confinement and its effect on emotions and cognitive performance, adaptive and maladaptive coping styles and strategies, and requirements for the psychological support of astronauts and their families during the mission. Interpersonal issues include: impact of crew diversity and leadership styles on small group dynamics, adaptive and maladaptive features of ground-crew interactions, and processes of crew cohesion, tension and conflict. Organizational issues include: the influence of organizational culture and mission duration on individual and group performance, and managerial requirements for long duration missions. Improved screening and selection of astronaut candidates, leadership, coping and interpersonal skills training of personnel, and organizational change are key elements in the prevention of performance decrements on long-duration missions.

Changes in cortical, cerebellar and basal ganglia representation after comprehensive long term unilateral hand motor training.

PubMed

Walz, A D; Doppl, K; Kaza, E; Roschka, S; Platz, T; Lotze, M

2015-02-01

We were interested in motor performance gain after unilateral hand motor training and associated changes of cerebral and cerebellar movement representation tested with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) before and after training. Therefore, we trained the left hand of strongly right-handed healthy participants with a comprehensive training (arm ability training, AAT) over two weeks. Motor performance was tested for the trained and non-trained hand before and after the training period. Functional imaging was performed for the trained and the non-trained hand separately and comprised force modulation with the fist, sequential finger movements and a fast writing task. After the training period the performance gain of tapping movements was comparable for both hand sides, whereas the motor performance for writing showed a higher training effect for the trained hand. fMRI showed a reduction of activation in supplementary motor, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, parietal cortical areas and lateral cerebellar areas during sequential finger movements over time. During left hand writing lateral cerebellar hemisphere also showed reduced activation, while activation of the anterior cerebellar hemisphere was increased. An initially high anterior cerebellar activation magnitude was a predictive value for high training outcome of finger tapping and visual guided movements. During the force modulation task we found increased activation in the striate. Overall, a comprehensive long-term training of the less skillful hand in healthy participants resulted in relevant motor performance improvements, as well as an intermanual learning transfer differently pronounced for the type of movement tested. Whereas cortical motor area activation decreased over time, cerebellar anterior hemisphere and striatum activity seem to represent increasing resources after long-term motor training. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long term corrosion on T91 and AISI1 316L steel in flowing lead alloy and corrosion protection barrier development: Experiments and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisenburger, A.; Schroer, C.; Jianu, A.; Heinzel, A.; Konys, J.; Steiner, H.; Müller, G.; Fazio, C.; Gessi, A.; Babayan, S.; Kobzova, A.; Martinelli, L.; Ginestar, K.; Balbaud-Célerier, F.; Martín-Muñoz, F. J.; Soler Crespo, L.

2011-08-01

Considering the status of knowledge on corrosion and corrosion protection and especially the need for long term compatibility data of structural materials in HLM a set of experiments to generate reliable long term data was defined and performed. The long term corrosion behaviour of the two structural materials foreseen in ADS, 316L and T91, was investigated in the design relevant temperature field, i.e. from 300 to 550 °C. The operational window of the two steels in this temperature range was identified and all oxidation data were used to develop and validate the models of oxide scale growth in PbBi. A mechanistic model capable to predict the oxidation rate applying some experimentally fitted parameters has been developed. This model assumes parabolic oxidation and might be used for design and safety relevant investigations in future. Studies on corrosion barrier development allowed to define the required Al content for the formation of thin alumina scales in LBE. These results as well as future steps and required improvements are discussed. Variation of experimental conditions clearly showed that specific care has to be taken with respect to local flow conditions and oxygen concentrations.

Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

2013-01-01

The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

Impacts of 120 years of fertilizer addition on a temperate grassland ecosystem

PubMed Central

Kidd, Jonathan; Manning, Peter; Simkin, Janet; Peacock, Simon; Stockdale, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

The widespread application of fertilizers has greatly influenced many processes and properties of agroecosystems, and agricultural fertilization is expected to increase even further in the future. To date, most research on fertilizer impacts has used short-term studies, which may be unrepresentative of long-term responses, thus hindering our capacity to predict long-term impacts. Here, we examined the effects of long-term fertilizer addition on key ecosystem properties in a long-term grassland experiment (Palace Leas Hay Meadow) in which farmyard manure (FYM) and inorganic fertilizer treatments have been applied consistently for 120 years in order to characterize the experimental site more fully and compare ecosystem responses with those observed at other long-term and short-term experiments. FYM inputs increased soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, hay yield, nutrient availability and acted as a buffer against soil acidification (>pH 5). In contrast, N-containing inorganic fertilizers strongly acidified the soil (

Validation of High Frequency (HF) Propagation Prediction Models in the Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athieno, R.; Jayachandran, P. T.

2014-12-01

Despite the emergence of modern techniques for long distance communication, Ionospheric communication in the high frequency (HF) band (3-30 MHz) remains significant to both civilian and military users. However, the efficient use of the ever-varying ionosphere as a propagation medium is dependent on the reliability of ionospheric and HF propagation prediction models. Most available models are empirical implying that data collection has to be sufficiently large to provide good intended results. The models we present were developed with little data from the high latitudes which necessitates their validation. This paper presents the validation of three long term High Frequency (HF) propagation prediction models over a path within the Arctic region. Measurements of the Maximum Usable Frequency for a 3000 km range (MUF (3000) F2) for Resolute, Canada (74.75° N, 265.00° E), are obtained from hand-scaled ionograms generated by the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI). The observations have been compared with predictions obtained from the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis Program (ICEPAC), Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOACAP) and International Telecommunication Union Recommendation 533 (ITU-REC533) for 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013. A statistical analysis shows that the monthly predictions seem to reproduce the general features of the observations throughout the year though it is more evident in the winter and equinox months. Both predictions and observations show a diurnal and seasonal variation. The analysed models did not show large differences in their performances. However, there are noticeable differences across seasons for the entire period analysed: REC533 gives a better performance in winter months while VOACAP has a better performance for both equinox and summer months. VOACAP gives a better performance in the daily predictions compared to ICEPAC though, in general, the monthly predictions seem to agree more with the observations compared to the daily predictions.

Cation exchange properties of zeolites in hyper alkaline aqueous media.

PubMed

Van Tendeloo, Leen; de Blochouse, Benny; Dom, Dirk; Vancluysen, Jacqueline; Snellings, Ruben; Martens, Johan A; Kirschhock, Christine E A; Maes, André; Breynaert, Eric

2015-02-03

Construction of multibarrier concrete based waste disposal sites and management of alkaline mine drainage water requires cation exchangers combining excellent sorption properties with a high stability and predictable performance in hyper alkaline media. Though highly selective organic cation exchange resins have been developed for most pollutants, they can serve as a growth medium for bacterial proliferation, impairing their long-term stability and introducing unpredictable parameters into the evolution of the system. Zeolites represent a family of inorganic cation exchangers, which naturally occur in hyper alkaline conditions and cannot serve as an electron donor or carbon source for microbial proliferation. Despite their successful application as industrial cation exchangers under near neutral conditions, their performance in hyper alkaline, saline water remains highly undocumented. Using Cs(+) as a benchmark element, this study aims to assess the long-term cation exchange performance of zeolites in concrete derived aqueous solutions. Comparison of their exchange properties in alkaline media with data obtained in near neutral solutions demonstrated that the cation exchange selectivity remains unaffected by the increased hydroxyl concentration; the cation exchange capacity did however show an unexpected increase in hyper alkaline media.

Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.

2011-12-05

In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadalmore » climate prediction.« less

In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA can baseline characteristics and early patterns of CPAP usage predict those who are likely to be longer-term users of CPAP.

PubMed

Turnbull, Christopher D; Bratton, Daniel J; Craig, Sonya E; Kohler, Malcolm; Stradling, John R

2016-02-01

Long-term continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) usage varies between individuals. It would be of value to be able to identify those who are likely to benefit from CPAP (and use it long term), versus those who would not, and might therefore benefit from additional help early on. First, we explored whether baseline characteristics predicted CPAP usage in minimally symptomatic obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients, a group who would be expected to have low usage. Second, we explored if early CPAP usage was predictive of longer-term usage, as has been shown in more symptomatic OSA patients. The MOSAIC trial was a multi-centre randomised controlled trial where minimally symptomatic OSA patients were randomised to CPAP, or standard care, for 6 months. Here we have studied only those patients randomised to CPAP treatment. Baseline characteristics including symptoms, questionnaires [including the Epworth sleepiness score (ESS)] and sleep study parameters were recorded. CPAP usage was recorded at 2-4 weeks after initiation and after 6 months. The correlation and association between baseline characteristics and 6 months CPAP usage was assessed, as was the correlation between 2 and 4 weeks CPAP usage and 6 months CPAP usage. One hundred and ninety-five patients randomised to CPAP therapy had median [interquartile range (IQR)] CPAP usage of 2:49 (0:44, 5:13) h:min/night (h/n) at the 2-4 weeks visit, and 2:17 (0:08, 4:54) h/n at the 6 months follow-up visit. Only male gender was associated with increased long-term CPAP use (male usage 2:56 h/n, female 1:57 h/n; P=0.02). There was a moderate correlation between the usage of CPAP at 2-4 weeks and 6 months, with about 50% of the variability in long-term use being predicted by the short-term use. In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA, our study has shown that male gender (and not OSA severity or symptom burden) is associated with increased long-term use of CPAP at 6 months. Although, in general, early patterns of CPAP usage predicted longer term use, there are patients in whom this is not the case, and patients with low initial usage may need to extend their CPAP trial before a decision about longer-term use is made.

Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

Accelerated Weathering of Waste Glass at 90°C with the Pressurized Unsaturated Flow (PUF) Apparatus: Implications for Predicting Glass Corrosion with a Reactive Transport Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2009-09-21

The interest in the long-term durability of waste glass stems from the need to predict radionuclide release rates from the corroding glass over geologic time-scales. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)]. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that can mimic the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitor the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior.more » One dimensional reactive chemical transport simulations of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over geologic-time scales.« less

Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

PubMed

Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

2017-01-01

A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

BME Estimation of Residential Exposure to Ambient PM10 and Ozone at Multiple Time Scales

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Christakos, George; Jerrett, Michael

2009-01-01

Background Long-term human exposure to ambient pollutants can be an important contributing or etiologic factor of many chronic diseases. Spatiotemporal estimation (mapping) of long-term exposure at residential areas based on field observations recorded in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality System often suffer from missing data issues due to the scarce monitoring network across space and the inconsistent recording periods at different monitors. Objective We developed and compared two upscaling methods: UM1 (data aggregation followed by exposure estimation) and UM2 (exposure estimation followed by data aggregation) for the long-term PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) and ozone exposure estimations and applied them in multiple time scales to estimate PM and ozone exposures for the residential areas of the Health Effects of Air Pollution on Lupus (HEAPL) study. Method We used Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) analysis for the two upscaling methods. We performed spatiotemporal cross-validations at multiple time scales by UM1 and UM2 to assess the estimation accuracy across space and time. Results Compared with the kriging method, the integration of soft information by the BME method can effectively increase the estimation accuracy for both pollutants. The spatiotemporal distributions of estimation errors from UM1 and UM2 were similar. The cross-validation results indicated that UM2 is generally better than UM1 in exposure estimations at multiple time scales in terms of predictive accuracy and lack of bias. For yearly PM10 estimations, both approaches have comparable performance, but the implementation of UM1 is associated with much lower computation burden. Conclusion BME-based upscaling methods UM1 and UM2 can assimilate core and site-specific knowledge bases of different formats for long-term exposure estimation. This study shows that UM1 can perform reasonably well when the aggregation process does not alter the spatiotemporal structure of the original data set; otherwise, UM2 is preferable. PMID:19440491

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Surampudi, S.; Halpert, G.; Marsh, R. A.; James, R.

1999-01-01

This presentation reviews: (1) the goals and objectives, (2) the NASA and Airforce requirements, (3) the potential near term missions, (4) management approach, (5) the technical approach and (6) the program road map. The objectives of the program include: (1) develop high specific energy and long life lithium ion cells and smart batteries for aerospace and defense applications, (2) establish domestic production sources, and to demonstrate technological readiness for various missions. The management approach is to encourage the teaming of universities, R&D organizations, and battery manufacturing companies, to build on existing commercial and government technology, and to develop two sources for manufacturing cells and batteries. The technological approach includes: (1) develop advanced electrode materials and electrolytes to achieve improved low temperature performance and long cycle life, (2) optimize cell design to improve specific energy, cycle life and safety, (3) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (4) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (5) develop aerospace lithium ion cells in various AH sizes and voltages, (6) develop electronics for smart battery management, (7) develop a performance database required for various applications, and (8) demonstrate technology readiness for the various missions. Charts which review the requirements for the Li-ion battery development program are presented.

Design of Composite Hip Prostheses Considering the Long-Term Behavior of the Femur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Jong Wan; Jeong, Jae Youn; Ha, Sung Kyu

A design method for the hip prosthesis is proposed which can alleviate problems associated with stress shielding, proximal loosening and the high stress of bone-implant interfaces after total hip replacement. The stress shielding which may lead to bone resorption, can cause a loosening of the stem and a fracture of femoral bone. Generally the composites were more suitable for hip prosthesis material in the long-term stability than metallic alloy because design cases of composite materials produced less stress shielding than titanium alloy. A bone remodeling algorithm was implemented in a nonlinear finite element program to predict the long-term performance of the hip prosthesis. The three neck shapes and three cross sections of composite hip were examined. It was found that the stress concentration in the distal region of the titanium stem which may cause the patient's thigh pains was reduced using composite material. The head neck shape was closely related with the cortical bone resorption and the cancellous bone apposition at proximal region whereas the cross-section was closely related with the relative micromotion between interfaces. The convex head neck type with the quadrangle cross-section produced less subsidence at proximal region on the medial side than the others. For all composite material cases, the cancellous bone apposition occurred at partial interfaces, which may result in a stable bio-fixation. The design performances of the convex neck head type with the hexagonal cross-section designed to insure the long-term stability were found to be more suitable than the others.

Size and performance of anoxic limestone drains to neutralize acdic mine drainagei

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cravotta, C.A.

2003-01-01

Acidic mine drainage (AMD) can be neutralized effectively in underground, anoxic limestone drains (ALDs). Owing to reaction between the AMD and limestone (CaCO3), the pH and concentrations of alkalinity and calcium increase asymptotically with detention time in the ALD, while concentrations of sulfate, ferrous iron, and manganese typically are unaffected. This paper introduces a method to predict the alkalinity produced within an ALD and to estimate the mass of limestone required for its construction on the basis of data from short-term, closed-container (cubitainer) tests. The cubitainer tests, which used an initial mass of 4 kg crushed limestone completely inundated with 2.8 L AMD, were conducted for 11 to 16 d and provided estimates for the initial and maximum alkalinities and corresponding rates of alkalinity production and limestone dissolution. Long-term (5-11 yr) data for alkalinity and CaCO3 flux at the Howe Bridge, Morrison, and Buck Mountain ALDs in Pennsylvania, USA, indicate that rates of alkalinity production and limestone dissolution under field conditions were comparable with those in cubitainers filled with limestone and AMD from each site. The alkalinity of effluent and intermediate samples along the flow path through the ALDs and long-term trends in the residual mass of limestone and the effluent alkalinity were estimated as a function of the computed detention time within the ALD and second-order dissolution rate models for cubitainer tests. Thus, cubitainer tests can be a useful tool for designing ALDs and predicting their performance.

The ability of intensive care unit physicians to estimate long-term prognosis in survivors of critical illness.

PubMed

Soliman, Ivo W; Cremer, Olaf L; de Lange, Dylan W; Slooter, Arjen J C; van Delden, Johannes Hans J M; van Dijk, Diederik; Peelen, Linda M

2018-02-01

To assess the reliability of physicians' prognoses for intensive care unit (ICU) survivors with respect to long-term survival and health related quality of life (HRQoL). We performed an observational cohort-study in a single mixed tertiary ICU in The Netherlands. ICU survivors with a length of stay >48h were included. At ICU discharge, one-year prognosis was estimated by physicians using the four-option Sabadell score to record their expectations. The outcome of interest was poor outcome, which was defined as dying within one-year follow-up, or surviving with an EuroQoL5D-3L index <0.4. Among 1399 ICU survivors, 1068 (76%) subjects were expected to have a good outcome; 243 (18%) a poor long-term prognosis; 43 (3%) a poor short-term prognosis, and 45 (3%) to die in hospital (i.e. Sabadell score levels). Poor outcome was observed in 38%, 55%, 86%, and 100% of these groups respectively (concomitant c-index: 0.61). The expected prognosis did not match observed outcome in 365 (36%) patients. This was almost exclusively (99%) due to overoptimism. Physician experience did not affect results. Prognoses estimated by physicians incorrectly predicted long-term survival and HRQoL in one-third of ICU survivors. Moreover, inaccurate prognoses were generally the result of overoptimistic expectations of outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term phenotypic evolution of bacteria.

PubMed

Plata, Germán; Henry, Christopher S; Vitkup, Dennis

2015-01-15

For many decades comparative analyses of protein sequences and structures have been used to investigate fundamental principles of molecular evolution. In contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term evolution of species' phenotypic and genetic properties. This represents an important gap in our understanding of evolution, as exactly these proprieties play key roles in natural selection and adaptation to diverse environments. Here we perform a comparative analysis of bacterial growth and gene deletion phenotypes using hundreds of genome-scale metabolic models. Overall, bacterial phenotypic evolution can be described by a two-stage process with a rapid initial phenotypic diversification followed by a slow long-term exponential divergence. The observed average divergence trend, with approximately similar fractions of phenotypic properties changing per unit time, continues for billions of years. We experimentally confirm the predicted divergence trend using the phenotypic profiles of 40 diverse bacterial species across more than 60 growth conditions. Our analysis suggests that, at long evolutionary distances, gene essentiality is significantly more conserved than the ability to utilize different nutrients, while synthetic lethality is significantly less conserved. We also find that although a rapid phenotypic evolution is sometimes observed within the same species, a transition from high to low phenotypic similarity occurs primarily at the genus level.

Trans-sinusal maxillary distraction for correction of midfacial hypoplasia: long-term clinical results.

PubMed

Nadjmi, N; Schutyser, F; Van Erum, R

2006-10-01

Maxillary distraction osteogenesis is indicated in severe angle class III malocclusions, and severe maxillary hypoplasia among some cleft patients and other craniofacial deformities. Twenty patients, aged 8-48 years (mean 17.8+/-10.5 SD) with maxillary and midfacial hypoplasia were treated. The follow-up period was 13-65 months (mean 35+/-16.3 SD). A trans-sinusal maxillary distractor was placed intraorally at each side of the maxilla. The distraction vector was predicted using specialist software, and was transferred to the patients using stereolithographic models and individual templates. A (high) Le Fort I type osteotomy was performed. The amount of activation varied from 8 to 17.5 mm (mean 13.1+/-2.9 SD). Soft and hard tissue formation resulted in complete healing across the distraction gaps. The distractors are almost completely submerged, and can be left in place as long as necessary to avoid relapse. Wit's appraisal was used to measure the stability of the long-term distraction results. Results up to 5 years after distraction showed considerable maxillary advancement with long-term stability. Ongoing growth of the facial skeleton must be considered when distraction osteogenesis is chosen in growing patients.

Space-Bounded Church-Turing Thesis and Computational Tractability of Closed Systems.

PubMed

Braverman, Mark; Schneider, Jonathan; Rojas, Cristóbal

2015-08-28

We report a new limitation on the ability of physical systems to perform computation-one that is based on generalizing the notion of memory, or storage space, available to the system to perform the computation. Roughly, we define memory as the maximal amount of information that the evolving system can carry from one instant to the next. We show that memory is a limiting factor in computation even in lieu of any time limitations on the evolving system-such as when considering its equilibrium regime. We call this limitation the space-bounded Church-Turing thesis (SBCT). The SBCT is supported by a simulation assertion (SA), which states that predicting the long-term behavior of bounded-memory systems is computationally tractable. In particular, one corollary of SA is an explicit bound on the computational hardness of the long-term behavior of a discrete-time finite-dimensional dynamical system that is affected by noise. We prove such a bound explicitly.

Space-Bounded Church-Turing Thesis and Computational Tractability of Closed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, Mark; Schneider, Jonathan; Rojas, Cristóbal

2015-08-01

We report a new limitation on the ability of physical systems to perform computation—one that is based on generalizing the notion of memory, or storage space, available to the system to perform the computation. Roughly, we define memory as the maximal amount of information that the evolving system can carry from one instant to the next. We show that memory is a limiting factor in computation even in lieu of any time limitations on the evolving system—such as when considering its equilibrium regime. We call this limitation the space-bounded Church-Turing thesis (SBCT). The SBCT is supported by a simulation assertion (SA), which states that predicting the long-term behavior of bounded-memory systems is computationally tractable. In particular, one corollary of SA is an explicit bound on the computational hardness of the long-term behavior of a discrete-time finite-dimensional dynamical system that is affected by noise. We prove such a bound explicitly.

A Multimethod Assessment of Juvenile Psychopathy: Comparing the Predictive Utility of the PCL:YV, YPI, and NEO PRI

PubMed Central

Cauffman, Elizabeth; Kimonis, Eva R.; Dmitrieva, Julia; Monahan, Kathryn C.

2009-01-01

The current study compares 3 distinct approaches for measuring juvenile psychopathy and their utility for predicting short- and long-term recidivism among a sample of 1,170 serious male juvenile offenders. The assessment approaches compared a clinical interview method (the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Forth, Kosson, & Hare, 2003), a new self-report measure (the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory; Andershed, Kerr, Stattin, & Levander, 2002), and a personality-based approach (the NEO Psychopathy Resemblance Index; Lynam & Widiger, 2007). Results indicate a modest overlap between the 3 measures (rs = .26–.36); however, youths were often identified as psychopathic by 1 measure but not by others. Measures were weakly correlated with reoffending during subsequent 6- and 12-month periods. Findings suggest that although such scores may be useful indicators of the need for heightened monitoring in the short term, care should be taken when making predictions about long-term recidivism among adolescents. Moreover, the lack of long-term predictive power for the PCL:YV and the inconsistent psychopathy designations obtained with different measures raise serious questions about the use of such measures as the basis for legal or clinical treatment decisions. PMID:19947787

Mechanical characterization and numerical simulation of a subcutaneous implantable 3D printed cell encapsulation system.

PubMed

Adamo, Federica; Farina, Marco; Thekkedath, Usha R; Grattoni, Alessandro; Sesana, Raffaella

2018-06-01

Cell transplantation in bioengineered scaffolds and encapsulation systems has shown great promise in regenerative medicine. Depending on the site of implantation, type of cells and their expected function, these systems are designed to provide cells with a physiological-like environment while providing mechanical support and promoting long-term viability and function of the graft. A minimally invasive 3D printed system termed neovascularized implantable cell homing and encapsulation (NICHE) was developed in polylactic acid for subcutaneous transplantation of endocrine cells, including pancreatic islets. The suitability of the NICHE for long term in vivo deployment is investigated by assessing mechanical behavior of both fresh devices under simulated subcutaneous conditions and NICHE retrieved from subcutaneous implantation in pigs. Both experimental and numerical studies were performed with a focus on validating the constitutive material model used in the numerical analysis for accuracy and reliability. Notably, homogeneous isotropic constitutive material model calibrated by means of uniaxial testing well suited experimental results. The results highlight the long term durability for in vivo applications and the potential applicability of the model to predict the mechanical behavior of similar devices in various physiological settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outbursts and Gradualism: Megaflood erosion consistent with long-term landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; O'Connor, Jim

2017-04-01

Existing models for the development of topography and relief over geological timescales are fundamentally based on semi-empirical laws of the erosion and sediment transport performed by rivers. The prediction power of these laws is hindered by limitations in measuring river incision and by the scant knowledge of the past hydrological conditions, specifically average water flow and its variability. Consequently, models adopt 'gradualistic' (time-averaged) assumptions and the erodability values derived from modelling long-term erosion rates in rivers remain ambiguously tied not only to the lithology and nature of the bedrock but also to uncertainties in the quantification of past climate. This prevents the use of those erodabilities to predict the landscape evolution in different scenarios. Here, we apply the fundamentals of river erosion models to outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes, for which the hydrograph is intrinsically known from the geomorphological record or from direct measures. We obtain the outlet erodability from the peak water discharge and lake area observed in 86 floods that span over 16 orders of magnitude in water volume. The obtained erodability-lithology correlation is consistent with that seen in 22 previous long-term river incision quantifications, showing that outburst floods can be used to estimate erodability values that remain valid for a wide range of hydrological regimes and for erosion timescales spanning from hours-long outburst floods to million-year-scale landscape evolution. The results constrain the conditions leading to the runaway erosion responsible for outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes. They also call for the explicit incorporation of climate episodicity to the landscape evolution models. [Funded by CGL2014-59516].

A review of predictive coding algorithms.

PubMed

Spratling, M W

2017-03-01

Predictive coding is a leading theory of how the brain performs probabilistic inference. However, there are a number of distinct algorithms which are described by the term "predictive coding". This article provides a concise review of these different predictive coding algorithms, highlighting their similarities and differences. Five algorithms are covered: linear predictive coding which has a long and influential history in the signal processing literature; the first neuroscience-related application of predictive coding to explaining the function of the retina; and three versions of predictive coding that have been proposed to model cortical function. While all these algorithms aim to fit a generative model to sensory data, they differ in the type of generative model they employ, in the process used to optimise the fit between the model and sensory data, and in the way that they are related to neurobiology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-Sectional Comparison of Executive Attention Function in Normally Aging Long-Term T'ai Chi, Meditation, and Aerobic Fitness Practitioners Versus Sedentary Adults

PubMed Central

Manselle, Wayne; Woollacott, Marjorie H.

2014-01-01

Abstract This cross-sectional field study documented the effect of long-term t'ai chi, meditation, or aerobic exercise training versus a sedentary lifestyle on executive function. It was predicted that long-term training in t'ai chi and meditation plus exercise would produce greater benefits to executive function than aerobic exercise. T'ai chi and meditation plus exercise include mental and physical training. Fifty-four volunteers were tested: t'ai chi (n=10); meditation+exercise (n=16); aerobic exercisers (n=16); and sedentary controls (n=12). A one-factor (group), one-covariate (age) multivariate analysis of covariance was performed. Significant main effects of group and age were found (group, 67.9%, p<0.001; age, 76.3%, p=0.001). T'ai chi and meditation practitioners but not aerobic exercisers outperformed sedentary controls on percent switch costs (p=0.001 and p=0.006, respectively), suggesting that there may be differential effects of training type on executive function. PMID:24286339

Emotional stimuli exert parallel effects on attention and memory.

PubMed

Talmi, Deborah; Ziegler, Marilyne; Hawksworth, Jade; Lalani, Safina; Herman, C Peter; Moscovitch, Morris

2013-01-01

Because emotional and neutral stimuli typically differ on non-emotional dimensions, it has been difficult to determine conclusively which factors underlie the ability of emotional stimuli to enhance immediate long-term memory. Here we induced arousal by varying participants' goals, a method that removes many potential confounds between emotional and non-emotional items. Hungry and sated participants encoded food and clothing images under divided attention conditions. Sated participants attended to and recalled food and clothing images equivalently. Hungry participants performed worse on the concurrent tone-discrimination task when they viewed food relative to clothing images, suggesting enhanced attention to food images, and they recalled more food than clothing images. A follow-up regression analysis of the factors predicting memory for individual pictures revealed that food images had parallel effects on attention and memory in hungry participants, so that enhanced attention to food images did not predict their enhanced memory. We suggest that immediate long-term memory for food is enhanced in the hungry state because hunger leads to more distinctive processing of food images rendering them more accessible during retrieval.

Epidemiology and Long-term Clinical and Biologic Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Community-Dwelling Older Americans

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Karina; Loehr, Laura; Folsom, Aaron R.; Newman, Anne B.; Weissfeld, Lisa A.; Wunderink, Richard G.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; London, Stephanie J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Bauer, Doug C.; Angus, Derek C.

2013-01-01

Background: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals. Methods: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization. Results: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5% and 31.5%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults < 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5% and 25.7% in those < 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance. Conclusions: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model. PMID:23744106

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-02-20

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion.

Identifying predictive factors for long-term complications following button battery impactions: A case series and literature review.

PubMed

Eliason, Michael J; Melzer, Jonathan M; Winters, Jessica R; Gallagher, Thomas Q

2016-08-01

To complement a case series review of button battery impactions managed at our single military tertiary care center with a thorough literature review of laboratory research and clinical cases to develop a protocol to optimize patient care. Specifically, to identify predictive factors of long-term complications which can be used by the pediatric otolaryngologist to guide patient management after button battery impactions. A retrospective review of the Department of Defense's electronic medical record systems was conducted to identify patients with button battery ingestions and then characterize their treatment course. A thorough literature review complemented the lessons learned to identify potentially predictive clinical measures for long-term complications. Eight patients were identified as being treated for button battery impaction in the aerodigestive tract with two sustaining long-term complications. The median age of the patients treated was 33 months old and the median estimated time of impaction in the aerodigestive tract prior to removal was 10.5 h. Time of impaction, anatomic direction of the battery's negative pole, and identifying specific battery parameters were identified as factors that may be employed to predict sequelae. Based on case reviews, advancements in battery manufacturing, and laboratory research, there are distinct clinical factors that should be assessed at the time of initial therapy to guide follow-up management to minimize potential catastrophic sequelae of button battery ingestion. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Long-term semantic representations moderate the effect of attentional refreshing on episodic memory.

PubMed

Loaiza, Vanessa M; Duperreault, Kayla A; Rhodes, Matthew G; McCabe, David P

2015-02-01

The McCabe effect (McCabe, Journal of Memory and Language 58:480-494, 2008) refers to an advantage in episodic memory (EM) retrieval for memoranda studied in complex span versus simple span tasks, particularly for memoranda presented in earlier serial positions. This finding has been attributed to the necessity to refresh memoranda during complex span tasks that, in turn, promotes content-context binding in working memory (WM). Several frameworks have conceptualized WM as being embedded in long-term memory. Thus, refreshing may be less efficient when memoranda are not well-established in long-term semantic memory (SM). To investigate this, we presented words and nonwords in simple and complex span trials in order to manipulate the long-term semantic representations of the memoranda with the requirement to refresh the memoranda during WM. A recognition test was administered that required participants to make a remember-know decision for each memorandum recognized as old. The results replicated the McCabe effect, but only for words, and the beneficial effect of refreshing opportunities was exclusive to recollection. These results extend previous research by indicating that the predictive relationship between WM refreshing and long-term EM is specific to recollection and, furthermore, moderated by representations in long-term SM. This supports the predictions of WM frameworks that espouse the importance of refreshing in content-context binding, but also those that view WM as being an activated subset of and, therefore, constrained by the contents of long-term memory.

What Ever Happened To The ‘Cool’ Kids? Long-Term Sequelae Of Early Adolescent Pseudomature Behavior

PubMed Central

Allen, Joseph P.; Schad, Megan M.; Oudekerk, Barbara; Chango, Joanna

2014-01-01

Pseudomature behavior—ranging from minor delinquency to precocious romantic involvement—is widely viewed as a nearly normative feature of adolescence. When such behavior occurs early in adolescence, however, it was hypothesized to reflect a misguided overemphasis upon impressing peers and was considered likely to predict long-term adjustment problems. In a multi-method, multi-reporter study following a community sample of 184 adolescents from age 13 to 23, early adolescent pseudomature behavior was linked cross-sectionally to a heightened desire for peer popularity and to short-term success with peers. Longitudinal results, however, supported the study’s central hypothesis: Early adolescent pseudomature behavior predicted long-term difficulties in close relationships, as well as significant problems with alcohol and substance use, and elevated levels of criminal behavior. PMID:24919537

Hippocampal CA1 Kindling but Not Long-Term Potentiation Disrupts Spatial Memory Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leung, L. Stan; Shen, Bixia

2006-01-01

Long-term synaptic enhancement in the hippocampus has been suggested to cause deficits in spatial performance. Synaptic enhancement has been reported after hippocampal kindling that induced repeated electrographic seizures or afterdischarges (ADs) and after long-term potentiation (LTP) defined as synaptic enhancement without ADs. We studied…

Hybrid FRP-concrete bridge deck system final report II : long term performance of hybrid FRP-concrete bridge deck system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report describes the investigation of the long term structural performance of a : hybrid FRP-concrete (HFRPC) bridge deck on steel girders. The study aimed at : assessing three long term aspects pertaining to the HFRPC bridge deck: (1) creep : c...

Long-Term Orientation and Educational Performance. Working Paper 174

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Figlio, David; Giuliano, Paola; Özek, Umut; Sapienza, Paola

2017-01-01

We use remarkable population-level administrative education and birth records from Florida to study the role of Long-Term Orientation on the educational attainment of immigrant students living in the US. Controlling for the quality of schools and individual characteristics, students from countries with long-term oriented attitudes perform better…

Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Treesearch

Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

2011-01-01

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

Lithium-manganese dioxide cells for implantable defibrillator devices-Discharge voltage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Root, Michael J.

The discharge potential behavior of lithium-manganese dioxide cells designed for implantable cardiac defibrillators was characterized as a function of extent of cell depletion for tests designed to discharge the cells for times between 1 and 7 years. The discharge potential curves may be separated into two segments from 0 ≤ x ≤ ∼0.51 and ∼0.51 ≤ x ≤ 1.00, where x is the dimensionless extent of discharge referenced to the rated cell capacity. The discharge potentials conform to Tafel kinetics in each segment. This behavior allows the discharge potential curves to be predicted for an arbitrary discharge load and long term discharge performance may be predicted from short term test results. The discharge potentials may subsequently be modeled by fitting the discharge curves to empirical functions like polynomials and Padé approximants. A function based on the Nernst equation that includes a term accounting for nonideal interactions between lithium ions and the cathode host material, such as the Redlich-Kister relationship, also may be used to predict discharge behavior.

Outward foreign direct investments and home country's economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielska, Dorota; Kołtuniak, Marcin

2017-09-01

The study examines the time stability of the causality direction and cross-correlations between the home country's economic growth and pace of growth of its outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) stocks within the complex system of the Polish national economy. The research has been performed in order to verify, using both the time and frequency domains time series analyses, if economic agents' long term decisions on outward foreign direct investments, leading to cross-border value chains and production fragmentation processes, are of adaptive or predictive character. Consequently, the aim was to check if the home country's economic growth leads the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises, which stays in line with Dunning's Investment Development Path (IDP) paradigm, or if these complex processes, thanks to entrepreneurs' ability to formulate relevant rational expectations, precede the home country's economic growth, which would be supported with the introduction of the policy on reinforcing the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises. The presence of the unidirectional economic growth-led internationalization, consistent with the IDP concept's base assumptions, has been ascertained by the results of the short term Granger causality tests. Nevertheless, the results of the wavelet analyses, supported with the results of the econometric block exogeneity long term causality Wald tests, have revealed that in the long term the OFDI stocks' growth permanently precedes the home country's economic growth, which stays in the unequivocal contrast with the IDP paradigm's premises, as well as with the indicated above short term Granger causality tests' outcomes and indicates that economic agents' choices are not strictly of adaptive but also of predictive character, which influences the current state of knowledge on economic complex systems' characteristics. Such a result is of a great importance in the light of the existence of the significant and still unexploited internationalization potential of Polish enterprises.

Impact of Right Ventricular Performance in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Following Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Bartko, Philipp E; Wiedemann, Dominik; Schrutka, Lore; Binder, Christina; Santos-Gallego, Carlos G; Zuckermann, Andreas; Steinlechner, Barbara; Koinig, Herbert; Heinz, Gottfried; Niessner, Alexander; Zimpfer, Daniel; Laufer, Günther; Lang, Irene M; Distelmaier, Klaus; Goliasch, Georg

2017-07-28

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation following cardiac surgery safeguards end-organ oxygenation but unfavorably alters cardiac hemodynamics. Along with the detrimental effects of cardiac surgery to the right heart, this might impact outcome, particularly in patients with preexisting right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. We sought to determine the prognostic impact of RV function and to improve established risk-prediction models in this vulnerable patient cohort. Of 240 patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support following cardiac surgery, 111 had echocardiographic examinations at our institution before implantation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and were thus included. Median age was 67 years (interquartile range 60-74), and 74 patients were male. During a median follow-up of 27 months (interquartile range 16-63), 75 patients died. Fifty-one patients died within 30 days, 75 during long-term follow-up (median follow-up 27 months, minimum 5 months, maximum 125 months). Metrics of RV function were the strongest predictors of outcome, even stronger than left ventricular function ( P <0.001 for receiver operating characteristics comparisons). Specifically, RV free-wall strain was a powerful predictor univariately and after adjustment for clinical variables, Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3, tricuspid regurgitation, surgery type and duration with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.41 (95%CI 0.24-0.68; P =0.001) for 30-day mortality and 0.48 (95%CI 0.33-0.71; P <0.001) for long-term mortality for a 1-SD (SD=-6%) change in RV free-wall strain. Combined assessment of the additive EuroSCORE and RV free-wall strain improved risk classification by a net reclassification improvement of 57% for 30-day mortality ( P =0.01) and 56% for long-term mortality ( P =0.02) compared with the additive EuroSCORE alone. RV function is strongly linked to mortality, even after adjustment for baseline variables and clinical risk scores. RV performance improves established risk prediction models for short- and long-term mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

2015-01-01

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

[Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

PubMed

Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

2008-10-04

Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

Correlation between cognitive impairment during the acute phase of first cerebral infarction and development of long-term pseudobulbar affect

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Yuliang; Ma, Wenbin; Lu, Shujun; Chen, Jinbo; Cao, Lili

2018-01-01

Purpose The relationship between cognitive impairment during the acute phase of first cerebral infarction and the development of long-term pseudobulbar affect (PBA) has not been elucidated. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine if cognitive impairment during the acute phase of cerebral infarction will increase the risk of long-term post-infarction PBA. Patients and methods This was a nested case–control study using a prospective approach. A consecutive multicenter matched 1:1 case–control study of cognitive impairment cases following acute cerebral infarction (N=26) with 26 sex-, education years-, and age-matched controls. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to study the clinical features and changes in cognitive domain as well as the risk factors for PBA. Results Long-term PBA was independently predicted by low Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) scores at baseline. Multivariable regression models showed that post-infarction low MoCA scores remained independent predictors of long-term PBA (odds ratio [OR]=0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.54–0.95; P=0.018). Among all cognitive disorders, digit span test (DST) scores (OR=0.39; 95% CI=0.16–0.91, P=0.030), StroopC time (OR=1.15; 95% CI=1.01–1.31; P=0.037), and clock-drawing task (CDT) scores (OR=0.62; 95% CI=0.42–0.90; P=0.013) were found to be the independent risk factors for PBA. Conclusion Cognitive impairment during the acute phase of cerebral infarction increased the risk of cerebral infarction-induced long-term PBA. Development of PBA was closely associated with executive function, attention, and visuospatial disorder. PMID:29636612

Correlation between cognitive impairment during the acute phase of first cerebral infarction and development of long-term pseudobulbar affect.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Yuliang; Ma, Wenbin; Lu, Shujun; Chen, Jinbo; Cao, Lili

2018-01-01

The relationship between cognitive impairment during the acute phase of first cerebral infarction and the development of long-term pseudobulbar affect (PBA) has not been elucidated. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine if cognitive impairment during the acute phase of cerebral infarction will increase the risk of long-term post-infarction PBA. This was a nested case-control study using a prospective approach. A consecutive multicenter matched 1:1 case-control study of cognitive impairment cases following acute cerebral infarction (N=26) with 26 sex-, education years-, and age-matched controls. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to study the clinical features and changes in cognitive domain as well as the risk factors for PBA. Long-term PBA was independently predicted by low Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) scores at baseline. Multivariable regression models showed that post-infarction low MoCA scores remained independent predictors of long-term PBA (odds ratio [OR]=0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.54-0.95; P =0.018). Among all cognitive disorders, digit span test (DST) scores (OR=0.39; 95% CI=0.16-0.91, P =0.030), StroopC time (OR=1.15; 95% CI=1.01-1.31; P =0.037), and clock-drawing task (CDT) scores (OR=0.62; 95% CI=0.42-0.90; P =0.013) were found to be the independent risk factors for PBA. Cognitive impairment during the acute phase of cerebral infarction increased the risk of cerebral infarction-induced long-term PBA. Development of PBA was closely associated with executive function, attention, and visuospatial disorder.

Temporally graded semantic memory loss in amnesia and semantic dementia: Further evidence for opposite gradients.

PubMed

Estmacott, Robyn W; Moscovitch, Morris

2002-03-01

The consolidation theory of long-term memory (e.g., Squire, 1992) predicts that damage to the medial temporal lobes will result in temporally graded retrograde memory loss, with a disproportionate impairment of recent relative to remote knowledge; in contrast, severe atrophy of the temporal neocortex is predicted to result in the reverse temporally graded pattern, with a selective sparing of recent memory (K.S. Graham & Hodges, 1997). Previously, we reported evidence that autobiographical episodic memory does not follow this temporal pattern (Westmacott, Leach, Freedman, & Moscovitch, 2001). In the present study, we found evidence suggesting that semantic memory loss does follow the predicted temporal pattern. We used a set of tasks that tap implicit and explicit memory for famous names and English vocabulary terms from across the 20th century. KC, a person with medial temporal amnesia, consistently demonstrated across tasks a selective deficit for famous names and vocabulary terms from the 5-year period just prior to injury; this deficit was particularly profound for elaborated semantic knowledge (e.g., word definitions, occupation of famous person). However, when asked to guess on unfamiliar items, KC's performance for names and words from this 5-year time period increased substantially, suggesting that he retains some of this knowledge at an implicit or rudimentary level. Conversely, EL, a semantic dementia patient with temporal neocortical atrophy and relative sparing of the medial temporal lobe, demonstrated a selective sparing of names and words from the most recent time period. However, this selective sparing of recent semantic memory was demonstrated in the implicit tasks only; performance on explicit tasks suggested an equally severe impairment of semantics across all time periods. Unlike the data from our previous study of autobiographical episodic memory, these findings are consistent with the predictions both of consolidation theory (Hodges & Graham, 1998; Squire, 1992) and multiple trace theory (Nadel & Moscovitch, 1999) that the hippocampus plays a timelimited role in the acquisition and representation of long-term semantic memories. Moreover, our findings suggest that tasks requiring minimal verbal production and explicit recall may provide a more sensitive and comprehensive assessment of intact memory capacity in brain-damaged individuals.

Value of imaging studies after a first febrile urinary tract infection in young children: data from Italian renal infection study 1.

PubMed

Montini, Giovanni; Zucchetta, Pietro; Tomasi, Lisanna; Talenti, Enrico; Rigamonti, Waifro; Picco, Giorgio; Ballan, Alberto; Zucchini, Andrea; Serra, Laura; Canella, Vanna; Gheno, Marta; Venturoli, Andrea; Ranieri, Marco; Caddia, Valeria; Carasi, Carla; Dall'amico, Roberto; Hewitt, Ian

2009-02-01

We examined the diagnostic accuracy of routine imaging studies (ultrasonography and micturating cystography) for predicting long-term parenchymal renal damage after a first febrile urinary tract infection. This study addressed the secondary objective of a prospective trial evaluating different antibiotic regimens for the treatment of acute pyelonephritis. Data for 300 children < or =2 years of age, with normal prenatal ultrasound results, who completed the diagnostic follow-up evaluation (ultrasonography and technetium-99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid scanning within 10 days, cystography within 2 months, and repeat technetium-99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid scanning at 12 months to detect scarring) were analyzed. Outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values for ultrasonography and cystography in predicting parenchymal renal damage on the 12-month technetium-99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid scans. The kidneys and urinary tracts were mostly normal. The acute technetium-99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid scans showed pyelonephritis in 54% of cases. Renal scarring developed in 15% of cases. The ultrasonographic and cystographic findings were poor predictors of long-term damage, showing minor sonographic abnormalities for 12 and reflux for 23 of the 45 children who subsequently developed scarring. The benefit of performing ultrasonography and scintigraphy in the acute phase or cystourethrography is minimal. Our findings support (1) technetium-99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid scintigraphy 6 months after infection to detect scarring that may be related to long-term hypertension, proteinuria, and renal function impairment (although the degree of scarring was generally minor and did not impair renal function) and (2) continued surveillance to identify recurrent urinary tract infections that may warrant further investigation.

Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristov, Y.; Oxley, G.; Žagar, M.

2014-06-01

The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-epsilon turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies.

Pre-Primary Education and Long-Term Education Performance: Evidence from Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pholphirul, Piriya

2017-01-01

Several research papers have assessed the long-term benefits of pre-primary education in terms of academic performance and labor market outcomes. This study analyzes data obtained from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) to estimate the effects of preschool enrollment of Thai students on producing long-term benefits in their…

Reaction modeling of drainage quality in the Duluth Complex, northern Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seal, Robert; Lapakko, Kim; Piatak, Nadine; Woodruff, Laurel G.

2015-01-01

Reaction modeling can be a valuable tool in predicting the long-term behavior of waste material if representative rate constants can be derived from long-term leaching tests or other approaches. Reaction modeling using the REACT program of the Geochemist’s Workbench was conducted to evaluate long-term drainage quality affected by disseminated Cu-Ni-(Co-)-PGM sulfide mineralization in the basal zone of the Duluth Complex where significant resources have been identified. Disseminated sulfide minerals, mostly pyrrhotite and Cu-Fe sulfides, are hosted by clinopyroxene-bearing troctolites. Carbonate minerals are scarce to non-existent. Long-term simulations of up to 20 years of weathering of tailings used two different sets of rate constants: one based on published laboratory single-mineral dissolution experiments, and one based on leaching experiments using bulk material from the Duluth Complex conducted by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR). The simulations included only plagioclase, olivine, clinopyroxene, pyrrhotite, and water as starting phases. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were assumed to be in equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen. The simulations based on the published single-mineral rate constants predicted that pyrrhotite would be effectively exhausted in less than two years and pH would rise accordingly. In contrast, only 20 percent of the pyrrhotite was depleted after two years using the MNDNR rate constants. Predicted pyrrhotite depletion by the simulation based on the MNDNR rate constant matched well with published results of laboratory tests on tailings. Modeling long-term weathering of mine wastes also can provide important insights into secondary reactions that may influence the permeability of tailings and thereby affect weathering behavior. Both models predicted the precipitation of a variety of secondary phases including goethite, gibbsite, and clay (nontronite).

Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

PubMed

Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2015-06-01

Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

Non-invasive prediction of forthcoming cirrhosis-related complications

PubMed Central

Kang, Wonseok; Kim, Seung Up; Ahn, Sang Hoon

2014-01-01

In patients with chronic liver diseases, identification of significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis is essential for determining treatment strategies, assessing therapeutic response, and stratifying long-term prognosis. Although liver biopsy remains the reference standard for evaluating the extent of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases, several non-invasive methods have been developed as alternatives to liver biopsies. Some of these non-invasive methods have demonstrated clinical accuracy for diagnosing significant fibrosis or cirrhosis in many cross-sectional studies with the histological fibrosis stage as a reference standard. However, non-invasive methods cannot be fully validated through cross-sectional studies since liver biopsy is not a perfect surrogate endpoint marker. Accordingly, recent studies have focused on assessing the performance of non-invasive methods through long-term, longitudinal, follow-up studies with solid clinical endpoints related to advanced stages of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. As a result, current view is that these alternative methods can independently predict future cirrhosis-related complications, such as hepatic decompensation, liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver-related death. The clinical role of non-invasive models seems to be shifting from a simple tool for predicting the extent of fibrosis to a surveillance tool for predicting future liver-related events. In this article, we will summarize recent longitudinal studies of non-invasive methods for predicting forthcoming complications related to liver cirrhosis and discuss the clinical value of currently available non-invasive methods based on evidence from the literature. PMID:24627597

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Safety and Efficacy of Rivastigmine in Adolescents with Down Syndrome: Long-Term Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Spiridigliozzi, Gail A.; Crissman, Blythe G.; McKillop, Jane Anne; Yamamoto, Haru; Kishnani, Priya S.

2010-01-01

Abstract Following the completion of a 20-week, open-label study of the safety and efficacy of liquid rivastigmine for adolescents with Down syndrome, 5 of the 10 adolescents in the clinical trial continued long-term rivastigmine therapy and 5 did not. After an average period of 38 months, all 10 subjects returned for a follow-up assessment to determine the safety and efficacy of long-term rivastigmine use. Rivastigmine was well tolerated and overall health appeared to be unaffected by long-term rivastigmine use. Performance change on cognitive and language measures administered at the termination of the open-label clinical trial was compared between the two groups. No between-group difference in median performance change across the long-term period was found, suggesting that the long-term use of rivastigmine does not improve cognitive and language performance. However, two subjects demonstrated remarkable improvement in adaptive function over the long-term period. Both subjects had received long-term rivastigmine therapy. The discussion addresses the challenge of assessing cognitive change in clinical trials using adolescents with Down syndrome as subjects and the use of group versus individual data to evaluate the relevance of medication effects. PMID:21186971

Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

PubMed

Nyberg, Tommy; Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

2016-01-01

Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before application. Psychological premorbidity seems to be a prominent predictor of long-term depression among suicide-bereaved parents, and thus important for healthcare providers to assess.

CCL11 (Eotaxin-1) Levels Predict Long-Term Functional Outcomes in Patients Following Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Roy-O'Reilly, Meaghan; Ritzel, Rodney M; Conway, Sarah E; Staff, Ilene; Fortunato, Gilbert; McCullough, Louise D

2017-12-01

Circulating levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokine C-C motif chemokine 11 (CCL11, also known as eotaxin-1) are increased in several animal models of neuroinflammation, including traumatic brain injury and Alzheimer's disease. Increased levels of CCL11 have also been linked to decreased neurogenesis in mice. We hypothesized that circulating CCL11 levels would increase following ischemic stroke in mice and humans, and that higher CCL11 levels would correlate with poor long-term recovery in patients. As predicted, circulating levels of CCL11 in both young and aged mice increased significantly 24 h after experimental stroke. However, ischemic stroke patients showed decreased CCL11 levels compared to controls 24 h after stroke. Interestingly, lower post-stroke CCL11 levels were predictive of increased stroke severity and independently predictive of poorer functional outcomes in patients 12 months after ischemic stroke. These results illustrate important differences in the peripheral inflammatory response to ischemic stroke between mice and human patients. In addition, it suggests CCL11 as a candidate biomarker for the prediction of acute and long-term functional outcomes in ischemic stroke patients.

Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

2015-01-01

Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

Increasing ambulatory pulse pressure predicts the development of left ventricular hypertrophy during long-term follow-up.

PubMed

Pääkkö, Tero J W; Perkiömäki, Juha S; Kesäniemi, Y Antero; Ylitalo, Antti S; Lumme, Jarmo A; Huikuri, Heikki V; Ukkola, Olavi H

2018-03-01

Ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) has been shown to have an association with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). We evaluated the association between ABP characteristics and the development of LVH during long-term follow-up (20 years) in 420 middle-aged subjects from OPERA cohort. ABP measurements (ABPM) were recorded and echocardiographic examinations were performed at baseline and revisit. Anthropometrics were measured and laboratory analyses performed at visit. The questionnaire presented to all participants elicited detailed information about their habits. Left ventricular mass index (LVMI) was calculated according to Troys method. Baseline LVMI was a significant independent predictor of LVMI change (p < 0.001). None of the baseline continuous ABPM predicted the change in LVMI. A greater increase in daytime and night-time systolic blood pressure (BP) (p from 0.006 to 0.048) and 24 h, daytime and night-time pulse pressure (PP) (p from 0.005 to 0.034) predicted a greater increase in LVMI. Especially the increase in night-time SBP (p = 0.006) and PP (p = 0.005) predicted a greater increase in LVMI. We also considered circadian BP profiles among subjects, whose ABPM at baseline and echocardiographic measurements both at baseline and follow-up were available. Diastolic non-dippers were observed to show a greater increase in LVMI compared to diastolic dippers (10.6 ± 33.0 g/m 2 vs. 7.0 ± 28.8 g/m 2 , p = 0.032), when baseline LVMI and in-office DBP were taken account. These findings suggest that an increasing ambulatory PP increases and a diastolic non-dipping status may increase the risk for the development of LVH during later life course.

Long-term settlement prediction at open dumping area using Hossein and Gabr method for new development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Shariffuddin, Ahmad Sulaimi; Omar, Husaini; Misran, Halina

2017-07-01

In Malaysia, the most common method of disposal is landfill/open dumping. The soil at the dumping area are mixed with waste and soil. Thus, it was called as waste soil. Due to its heterogeneity properties, waste soil has a different settlement rate because different types of waste tends to settle differently. The Hussein and Gabr model which used empirical model was proposed to compute the long-term settlement. This Hussein and Gabr model is one of the soil settlement model that can be used to predict the long-term settlement at the dumping area. The model relates between the compression index and the time factor. The time factor are t1, t2, t3 and t4. The compression index is Cα1=compression index and Cβ is biodegradation index. The duration for initial compression, the compression, the biological compression and time creep are included in the model. The sample of waste soil is taken from closed dumping area in Lukut, Negeri Sembilan with the height of waste approximately 1 to 3 meters. The sample is tested using consolidation test for determining the geotechnical parameters and compressibility index. Based on the Hossein and Gabr model, the predicted long-term settlement for 20 years (ΔH) for the waste height of 1 to 3 meters are 0.21m, 0.42m and 0.63m respectively and are below the percentages of proposed maximum settlement for waste soil which is acceptable for new development to takes place.. The types of deep or shallow foundation are proposed based on the predicted settlement. The abandoned open dumping area can now be reused for the new development after the long-term settlement are predicted and some of the precaution measures has been taken as a safety measures.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

PubMed

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

PubMed Central

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

Poor Gait Performance and Prediction of Dementia: Results From a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Beauchet, Olivier; Annweiler, Cédric; Callisaya, Michele L; De Cock, Anne-Marie; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Kressig, Reto W; Srikanth, Velandai; Steinmetz, Jean-Paul; Blumen, Helena M; Verghese, Joe; Allali, Gilles

2016-06-01

Poor gait performance predicts risk of developing dementia. No structured critical evaluation has been conducted to study this association yet. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically examine the association of poor gait performance with incidence of dementia. An English and French Medline search was conducted in June 2015, with no limit of date, using the medical subject headings terms "Gait" OR "Gait Disorders, Neurologic" OR "Gait Apraxia" OR "Gait Ataxia" AND "Dementia" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia" OR "Dementia, Multi-Infarct" OR "Dementia, Vascular" OR "Alzheimer Disease" OR "Lewy Body Disease" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia With Motor Neuron Disease" (Supplementary Concept). Poor gait performance was defined by standardized tests of walking, and dementia was diagnosed according to international consensus criteria. Four etiologies of dementia were identified: any dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and non-AD (ie, pooling VaD, mixed dementias, and other dementias). Fixed effects meta-analyses were performed on the estimates in order to generate summary values. Of the 796 identified abstracts, 12 (1.5%) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Poor gait performance predicted dementia [pooled hazard ratio (HR) combined with relative risk and odds ratio = 1.53 with P < .001 for any dementia, pooled HR = 1.79 with P < .001 for VaD, HR = 1.89 with P value < .001 for non-AD]. Findings were weaker for predicting AD (HR = 1.03 with P value = .004). This meta-analysis provides evidence that poor gait performance predicts dementia. This association depends on the type of dementia; poor gait performance is a stronger predictor of non-AD dementias than AD. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bursts of seizures in long-term recordings of human focal epilepsy

PubMed Central

Karoly, Philippa J.; Nurse, Ewan S.; Freestone, Dean R.; Ung, Hoameng; Cook, Mark J.; Boston, Ray

2017-01-01

Summary Objective We report on temporally clustered seizures detected from continuous long-term ambulatory human electroencephalographic data. The objective was to investigate short-term seizure clustering, which we have termed bursting, and consider implications for patient care, seizure prediction, and evaluating therapies. Methods Chronic ambulatory intracranial EEG data collected for the purpose of seizure prediction were annotated to identify seizure events. A detection algorithm was used to identify bursts of events. Burst events were compared to non-burst events to evaluate event dispersion, duration and dynamics. Results Bursts of seizures were present in six of fifteen patients, and detections were consistent over long term monitoring (> 2 years). Seizures within bursts are highly overdispersed compared to non-burst seizures. There was a complicated relationship between bursts and clinical seizures, although bursts were associated with multi-modal distributions of seizure duration, and poorer predictive outcomes. For three subjects, bursts demonstrated distinctive pre-ictal dynamics compared to clinical seizures. Significance We have previously hypothesized that there are distinct physiological pathways underlying short and long duration seizures. Here we show that burst seizures fall almost exclusively within the short population of seizure durations; however, a short duration was not sufficient to induce or imply bursting. We can therefore conclude that in addition to distinct mechanisms underlying seizure duration, there are separate factors regulating bursts of seizures. We show that bursts were a robust phenomenon in our patient cohort, which were consistent with overdispersed seizure rates, suggesting long-memory dynamics. PMID:28084639

Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

PubMed Central

Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

2012-01-01

What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-12-01

Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.

Care needs of residents in community-based long-term care facilities in Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, I-Chuan; Yin, Teresa Jeo-Chen

2005-07-01

The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding both of the characteristics of residents who receive the services of nursing assistants and the service intensity (service tasks, service time and cost) of nursing assistants as a means of developing a patient classification based upon resource consumption. Most people in Taiwan send their disabled older family members to community-based long-term care facilities instead of nursing homes because they are much cheaper, and because they are generally closer to their homes, making visits more convenient. Nursing assistants make up the largest group of personnel in long-term care facilities. To determine resource use, both the service time and the actual activities performed for a resident by nursing assistants need to be assessed and this will help to develop a patient classification system to predict resource use and patient outcomes. A descriptive survey method was used to identify the tasks performed by nursing assistants in community-based long-term care facilities in Taiwan. Nursing assistants were recruited from 10 long-term care facilities in the Shihlin and Peitou Districts of Taipei City. Thirty-four nursing assistants and 112 residents participated in this study. Findings showed that each nursing assistant spent 5.05 hours per day doing direct service care, which is much higher than the 2.08 hours for nursing assistants in the United States. Among service tasks provided by nursing assistants, personal care consumed 35.1% of their time. Non-complex treatments were second (33.3%). Skilled nursing and medical services were third (31.6%). The service intensity required of nursing assistants was strongly related to the residents' activities of daily living and their needs. Complex nursing procedures are normally provided by Registered Nurses in nursing homes and consumed almost as much of the nursing assistants' time as did personal care activities in this study. It is suggested that a training program for nursing assistants, especially for foreigners in community-based long-term care facilities, should be mandated to assure the quality of service.

c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

PubMed

Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

2016-10-15

The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical prediction of functional outcome after ischemic stroke: the surprising importance of periventricular white matter disease and race.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-02-01

We sought to build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk restratification as comorbid events accumulate. A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months poststroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3-month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Poststroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short-term poststroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation.

Long-term care: long-term care insurance--2005. End of Year Issue Brief.

PubMed

Tanner, Rachel; Bercaw, Lawren

2005-12-31

As the "Baby Boom" generation approaches retirement, state and federal lawmakers are struggling to ensure that the nation's long-term care system will provide adequate services for the growing number of senior citizens. A 2003 Administration on Aging report predicted that the elderly population will double by 2030. Accordingly, policymakers must prepare for the impending squeeze on public health and Medicaid resources. Many consumers are exploring private long-term care insurance options as a means of preparing for the cost of eldercare. Yet, a lack of market uniformity has rendered the long-term care insurance industry somewhat difficult for consumers to decipher. In addition, senior care insurance is often costly, particularly for those over age 50.

Beyond the short term : transportation asset management for long-term sustainability, accountability and performance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Transportation Asset Management (TAM) has long been recognized as a sound, long-term approach to managing infrastructure. It provides decision makers with a rational, long-term systematic process for making difficult and complex decisions about how t...

Neural Conflict–Control Mechanisms Improve Memory for Target Stimuli

PubMed Central

Krebs, Ruth M.; Boehler, Carsten N.; De Belder, Maya; Egner, Tobias

2015-01-01

According to conflict-monitoring models, conflict serves as an internal signal for reinforcing top-down attention to task-relevant information. While evidence based on measures of ongoing task performance supports this idea, implications for long-term consequences, that is, memory, have not been tested yet. Here, we evaluated the prediction that conflict-triggered attentional enhancement of target-stimulus processing should be associated with superior subsequent memory for those stimuli. By combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a novel variant of a face-word Stroop task that employed trial-unique face stimuli as targets, we were able to assess subsequent (incidental) memory for target faces as a function of whether a given face had previously been accompanied by congruent, neutral, or incongruent (conflicting) distracters. In line with our predictions, incongruent distracters not only induced behavioral conflict, but also gave rise to enhanced memory for target faces. Moreover, conflict-triggered neural activity in prefrontal and parietal regions was predictive of subsequent retrieval success, and displayed conflict-enhanced functional coupling with medial-temporal lobe regions. These data provide support for the proposal that conflict evokes enhanced top-down attention to task-relevant stimuli, thereby promoting their encoding into long-term memory. Our findings thus delineate the neural mechanisms of a novel link between cognitive control and memory. PMID:24108799

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Predicting long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Karim, Md N; Reid, Christopher M; Huq, Molla; Brilleman, Samuel L; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Billah, Baki

2018-02-01

To develop a model for predicting long-term survival following coronary artery bypass graft surgery. This study included 46 573 patients from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZCTS) registry, who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery between 2001 and 2014. Data were randomly split into development (23 282) and validation (23 291) samples. Cox regression models were fitted separately, using the important preoperative variables, for 4 'time intervals' (31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years), with optimal predictors selected using the bootstrap bagging technique. Model performance was assessed both in validation data and in combined data (development and validation samples). Coefficients of all 4 final models were estimated on the combined data adjusting for hospital-level clustering. The Kaplan-Meier mortality rates estimated in the sample were 1.7% at 90 days, 2.8% at 1 year, 4.4% at 2 years and 6.1% at 3 years. Age, peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, reduced ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, arrhythmia, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, cerebrovascular disease, hypertension, congestive heart failure, steroid use and smoking were included in all 4 models. However, their magnitude of effect varied across the time intervals. Harrell's C-statistics was 0.83, 0.78, 0.75 and 0.74 for 31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years models, respectively. Models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in validation data. Models were developed for predicting long-term survival at 4 time intervals after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. These models can be used in conjunction with the existing 30-day mortality prediction model. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well as river restoration and management. PMID:26114430

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

Bioelectrical impedance analysis-derived phase angle at admission as a predictor of 90-day mortality in intensive care patients.

PubMed

Stapel, Sandra N; Looijaard, Wilhelmus G P M; Dekker, Ingeborg M; Girbes, Armand R J; Weijs, Peter J M; Oudemans-van Straaten, Heleen M

2018-05-11

A low bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA)-derived phase angle (PA) predicts morbidity and mortality in different patient groups. An association between PA and long-term mortality in ICU patients has not been demonstrated before. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether PA on ICU admission independently predicts 90-day mortality. This prospective observational study was performed in a mixed university ICU. BIA was performed in 196 patients within 24 h of ICU admission. To test the independent association between PA and 90-day mortality, logistic regression analysis was performed using the APACHE IV predicted mortality as confounder. The optimal cutoff value of PA for mortality prediction was determined by ROC curve analysis. Using this cutoff value, patients were categorized into low or normal PA group and the association with 90-day mortality was tested again. The PA of survivors was higher than of the non-survivors (5.0° ± 1.3° vs. 4.1° ± 1.2°, p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve of PA for 90-day mortality was 0.70 (CI 0.59-0.80). PA was associated with 90-day mortality (OR = 0.56, CI: 0.38-0.77, p = 0.001) on univariate logistic regression analysis and also after adjusting for BMI, gender, age, and APACHE IV on multivariable logistic regression (OR = 0.65, CI: 0.44-0.96, p = 0.031). A PA < 4.8° was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality (adjusted OR = 3.65, CI: 1.34-9.93, p = 0.011). Phase angle at ICU admission is an independent predictor of 90-day mortality. This biological marker can aid in long-term mortality risk assessment of critically ill patients.

Optimizing a Sensor Network with Data from Hazard Mapping Demonstrated in a Heavy-Vehicle Manufacturing Facility.

PubMed

Berman, Jesse D; Peters, Thomas M; Koehler, Kirsten A

2018-05-28

To design a method that uses preliminary hazard mapping data to optimize the number and location of sensors within a network for a long-term assessment of occupational concentrations, while preserving temporal variability, accuracy, and precision of predicted hazards. Particle number concentrations (PNCs) and respirable mass concentrations (RMCs) were measured with direct-reading instruments in a large heavy-vehicle manufacturing facility at 80-82 locations during 7 mapping events, stratified by day and season. Using kriged hazard mapping, a statistical approach identified optimal orders for removing locations to capture temporal variability and high prediction precision of PNC and RMC concentrations. We compared optimal-removal, random-removal, and least-optimal-removal orders to bound prediction performance. The temporal variability of PNC was found to be higher than RMC with low correlation between the two particulate metrics (ρ = 0.30). Optimal-removal orders resulted in more accurate PNC kriged estimates (root mean square error [RMSE] = 49.2) at sample locations compared with random-removal order (RMSE = 55.7). For estimates at locations having concentrations in the upper 10th percentile, the optimal-removal order preserved average estimated concentrations better than random- or least-optimal-removal orders (P < 0.01). However, estimated average concentrations using an optimal-removal were not statistically different than random-removal when averaged over the entire facility. No statistical difference was observed for optimal- and random-removal methods for RMCs that were less variable in time and space than PNCs. Optimized removal performed better than random-removal in preserving high temporal variability and accuracy of hazard map for PNC, but not for the more spatially homogeneous RMC. These results can be used to reduce the number of locations used in a network of static sensors for long-term monitoring of hazards in the workplace, without sacrificing prediction performance.

Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

1979-01-01

The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

Application of the hybrid ANFIS models for long term wind power density prediction with extrapolation capability.

PubMed

Hossain, Monowar; Mekhilef, Saad; Afifi, Firdaus; Halabi, Laith M; Olatomiwa, Lanre; Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi; Horan, Ben; Stojcevski, Alex

2018-01-01

In this paper, the suitability and performance of ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), ANFIS-PSO (particle swarm optimization), ANFIS-GA (genetic algorithm) and ANFIS-DE (differential evolution) has been investigated for the prediction of monthly and weekly wind power density (WPD) of four different locations named Mersing, Kuala Terengganu, Pulau Langkawi and Bayan Lepas all in Malaysia. For this aim, standalone ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-DE prediction algorithm are developed in MATLAB platform. The performance of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is determined by computing different statistical parameters such as mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results obtained from ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS-GA enjoy higher performance and accuracy than other models, and they can be suggested for practical application to predict monthly and weekly mean wind power density. Besides, the capability of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is examined to predict the wind data for the locations where measured wind data are not available, and the results are compared with the measured wind data from nearby stations.

Application of the hybrid ANFIS models for long term wind power density prediction with extrapolation capability

PubMed Central

Mekhilef, Saad; Afifi, Firdaus; Halabi, Laith M.; Olatomiwa, Lanre; Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi; Stojcevski, Alex

2018-01-01

In this paper, the suitability and performance of ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), ANFIS-PSO (particle swarm optimization), ANFIS-GA (genetic algorithm) and ANFIS-DE (differential evolution) has been investigated for the prediction of monthly and weekly wind power density (WPD) of four different locations named Mersing, Kuala Terengganu, Pulau Langkawi and Bayan Lepas all in Malaysia. For this aim, standalone ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-DE prediction algorithm are developed in MATLAB platform. The performance of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is determined by computing different statistical parameters such as mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results obtained from ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS-GA enjoy higher performance and accuracy than other models, and they can be suggested for practical application to predict monthly and weekly mean wind power density. Besides, the capability of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is examined to predict the wind data for the locations where measured wind data are not available, and the results are compared with the measured wind data from nearby stations. PMID:29702645

The initial tolerance to sub-lethal Cd exposure is the same among ten naïve pond populations of Daphnia magna, but their micro-evolutionary potential to develop resistance is very different.

PubMed

Messiaen, Marlies; Janssen, Colin Roger; De Meester, Luc; De Schamphelaere, Karel André Clara

2013-11-15

Genetic variation complicates predictions of both the initial tolerance and the long-term (micro-evolutionary) response of natural Daphnia populations to chemical stressors from results of standard single-clone laboratory ecotoxicity tests. In order to investigate possible solutions to this problem, we aimed to compare the initial sub-lethal tolerance to Cd of 10 naïve natural pond populations of Daphnia magna as well as their evolutionary potential to develop increased resistance. We did so by measuring reproductive performance of 120 clones, i.e. 12 clones hatched from the recent dormant egg bank of each of 10 populations, both in absence (Cd-free control) and presence of 4.4 μg Cd/L. We show that the initial tolerance, defined as the reproductive performance of individuals of the first generation exposed to Cd relative to that in a Cd-free control was not significantly different among the 10 studied pond populations and averaged 0.82 ± 0.04 over these populations. Moreover, these populations' initial tolerances were also not significantly different from the mean initial tolerance of 0.87 ± 0.08 at 4.0 μg Cd/L measured for a group of 7 often-used laboratory clones, collected from a range of European ecotoxicity testing laboratories. This indicates that the initial response of naïve natural pond populations to sub-lethal Cd can be relatively accurately predicted from ecotoxicity test data from only a handful of laboratory clones. We then used estimates of broad-sense heritability of Cd tolerance (H(2)) - based on the same dataset - as a proxy of these populations' capacities to evolutionarily respond to Cd in terms of the development of increased resistance, which is here defined as the increase with time of the frequency of clones with a higher Cd tolerance in the population (accompanied with an increase of mean Cd-tolerance of the population above the initial tolerance). We show that the populations' estimated H(2) values of Cd-tolerance cover almost the entire theoretically possible range, ranging from not significantly different from zero (for five populations) to between 0.48 and 0.81 (for the five other populations). This indicates that, unlike the initial tolerance to Cd, the (long-term) micro-evolutionary response to Cd may be very different among natural pond populations. Therefore, we conclude that it may be very difficult to predict the long-term response of an unstudied population to chemical stress from tolerance data on a sample of other populations. It is therefore suggested that new methods for forecasting long-term responses should be explored, such as the development of predictive models based on the combination of population-genomic and tolerance time-series data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of short- and long-term avoidance in completers of inpatient group interventions for agoraphobia.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle; Øktedalen, Tuva; Svanøe, Karol; Hedley, Liv M; Sexton, Harold

2015-08-01

Little is currently known about predictors of follow-up outcome of psychological treatment of agoraphobia. In this study, we wished to examine predictors of short- and long-term avoidance after inpatient group interventions for agoraphobia. Ninety-six (68%) of 141 agoraphobic patients (74% women) who had completed treatment in two open and one randomized controlled trial (RCT) were followed up 13 to 21 years after start of treatment. Major depression at pre-treatment predicted less short-term (up to one year after end of treatment) improvement in agoraphobic avoidance. Working and being married/cohabiting at pre-treatment predicted greater long-term (across one-year, two-year, and 13-21 years follow-up) improvement. In contrast, the duration of agoraphobia, amount of Axis I and II co-morbidity, being diagnosed with avoidant, dependent, and obsessive-compulsive personality disorder, and the use of antidepressants and benzodiazepines the month before intake to treatment, were unrelated to short-term as well as long-term outcome. As many as 31.9% of the included patients did not attend long-term follow-up and the power of the study was limited. The long time period between the two and 13-21 year follow-ups is a limitation, in which it is difficult to assess what actually happened. Although all the patients received some form of CBT, there was variability among the treatments. The only short-term predictor identified represented a clinical feature, whereas the long-term predictors represented features of the patients' life situation. The limited power of the study precludes the inference that non-significant predictors are unrelated to follow-up outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of training and anthropometric factors on marathon and 100 km ultramarathon race performance

PubMed Central

Tanda, Giovanni; Knechtle, Beat

2015-01-01

Background Marathon (42 km) and 100 km ultramarathon races are increasing in popularity. The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential associations of anthropometric and training variables with performance in these long-distance running competitions. Methods Training and anthropometric data from a large cohort of marathoners and 100 km ultramarathoners provided the basis of this work. Correlations between training and anthropometric indices of subjects and race performance were assessed using bivariate and multiple regression analyses. Results A combination of volume and intensity in training was found to be suitable for prediction of marathon and 100 km ultramarathon race pace. The relative role played by these two variables was different, in that training volume was more important than training pace for the prediction of 100 km ultramarathon performance, while the opposite was found for marathon performance. Anthropometric characteristics in terms of body fat percentage negatively affected 42 km and 100 km race performance. However, when this factor was relatively low (ie, less than 15% body fat), the performance of 42 km and 100 km races could be predicted solely on the basis of training indices. Conclusion Mean weekly training distance run and mean training pace were key predictor variables for both marathon and 100 km ultramarathon race performance. Predictive correlations for race performance are provided for runners with a relatively low body fat percentage. PMID:25995653

Preexisting depressive symptoms are associated with long-term cognitive decline in patients after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Patron, Elisabetta; Messerotti Benvenuti, Simone; Zanatta, Paolo; Polesel, Elvio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

To examine whether preoperative psychological dysfunctions rather than intraoperative factors may differentially predict short- and long-term postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) in patients after cardiac surgery. Forty-two patients completed a psychological evaluation, including the Trail Making Test Part A and B (TMT-A/B), the memory with 10/30-s interference, the phonemic verbal fluency and the Center for Epidemiological Studies of Depression (CES-D) scale for cognitive functions and depressive symptoms, respectively, before surgery, at discharge and at 18-month follow-up. Ten (24%) and 11 (26%) patients showed POCD at discharge and at 18-month follow-up, respectively. The duration of cardiopulmonary bypass significantly predicted short-term POCD [odds ratio (OR)=1.04, P<.05], whereas preoperative psychological factors were unrelated to cognitive decline at discharge. Conversely, long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery was significantly predicted by preoperative scores in the CES-D (OR=1.26, P<.03) but not by intraoperative variables (all Ps >.23). Our findings showed that preexisting depressive symptoms rather than perioperative risk factors are associated with cognitive decline 18 months after cardiac surgery. This study suggests that a preoperative psychological evaluation of depressive symptoms is essential to anticipate which patients are likely to show long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Prognostic Implications of the Admission Shock Index in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Who Received Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Abe, Naoyuki; Miura, Takashi; Miyashita, Yusuke; Hashizume, Naoto; Ebisawa, Soichiro; Motoki, Hirohiko; Tsujimura, Takuya; Ishihara, Takayuki; Uematsu, Masaaki; Katagiri, Toshio; Ishihara, Ryuma; Tosaka, Atsushi; Ikeda, Uichi

2017-04-01

The admission shock index (SI) enables prediction of short-term prognosis. This study investigated the prognostic implications of admission SI for predicting long-term prognoses for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The participants were 680 patients with AMI who received percutaneous coronary intervention. Shock index is the ratio of heart rate and systolic blood pressure. Patients were classified as admission SI <0.66 (normal) and ≥0.66 (elevated; 75th percentile). The end point was 5-year major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). Elevated admission SI was seen in 176 patients. Peak creatine kinase levels were significantly higher and left ventricular ejection fraction was lower in the elevated SI group, which had a worse MACEs. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, SI ≥0.66 was a risk factor for MACE. Elevated admission SI was associated with poorer long-term prognosis.

Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

2018-02-01

Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

Neonatal brain abnormalities and memory and learning outcomes at 7 years in children born very preterm.

PubMed

Omizzolo, Cristina; Scratch, Shannon E; Stargatt, Robyn; Kidokoro, Hiroyuki; Thompson, Deanne K; Lee, Katherine J; Cheong, Jeanie; Neil, Jeffrey; Inder, Terrie E; Doyle, Lex W; Anderson, Peter J

2014-01-01

Using prospective longitudinal data from 198 very preterm and 70 full term children, this study characterised the memory and learning abilities of very preterm children at 7 years of age in both verbal and visual domains. The relationship between the extent of brain abnormalities on neonatal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and memory and learning outcomes at 7 years of age in very preterm children was also investigated. Neonatal MRI scans were qualitatively assessed for global, white-matter, cortical grey-matter, deep grey-matter, and cerebellar abnormalities. Very preterm children performed less well on measures of immediate memory, working memory, long-term memory, and learning compared with term-born controls. Neonatal brain abnormalities, and in particular deep grey-matter abnormality, were associated with poorer memory and learning performance at 7 years in very preterm children. Findings support the importance of cerebral neonatal pathology for predicting later memory and learning function.

Poor early response to methotrexate portends inadequate long-term outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: Evidence from 2 phase 3 clinical trials.

PubMed

Gordon, Kenneth B; Betts, Keith A; Sundaram, Murali; Signorovitch, James E; Li, Junlong; Xie, Meng; Wu, Eric Q; Okun, Martin M

2017-12-01

Most methotrexate-treated psoriasis patients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Santamarina, Estevo; Maisterra, Olga; Jacas, Carlos; Molina, Carlos; Quintana, Manuel

2016-01-01

Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients’ quality of life (QoL). The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015). Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005). In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke. PMID:26999113