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Sample records for prediction project modificado

  1. The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

    Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

  2. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    PubMed Central

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Tropsha, Alexander; Varnek, Alexandre; Zakharov, Alexey; Worth, Andrew; Richard, Ann M.; Grulke, Christopher M.; Trisciuzzi, Daniela; Fourches, Denis; Horvath, Dragos; Benfenati, Emilio; Muratov, Eugene; Wedebye, Eva Bay; Grisoni, Francesca; Mangiatordi, Giuseppe F.; Incisivo, Giuseppina M.; Hong, Huixiao; Ng, Hui W.; Tetko, Igor V.; Balabin, Ilya; Kancherla, Jayaram; Shen, Jie; Burton, Julien; Nicklaus, Marc; Cassotti, Matteo; Nikolov, Nikolai G.; Nicolotti, Orazio; Andersson, Patrik L.; Zang, Qingda; Politi, Regina; Beger, Richard D.; Todeschini, Roberto; Huang, Ruili; Farag, Sherif; Rosenberg, Sine A.; Slavov, Svetoslav; Hu, Xin; Judson, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. Objectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) and demonstrate the efficacy of using predictive computational models trained on high-throughput screening data to evaluate thousands of chemicals for ER-related activity and prioritize them for further testing. Methods: CERAPP combined multiple models developed in collaboration with 17 groups in the United States and Europe to predict ER activity of a common set of 32,464 chemical structures. Quantitative structure–activity relationship models and docking approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1,677 chemical structures provided by the U.S. EPA, to build a total of 40 categorical and 8 continuous models for binding, agonist, and antagonist ER activity. All predictions were evaluated on a set of 7,522 chemicals curated from the literature. To overcome the limitations of single models, a consensus was built by weighting models on scores based on their evaluated accuracies. Results: Individual model scores ranged from 0.69 to 0.85, showing high prediction reliabilities. Out of the 32,464 chemicals, the consensus model predicted 4,001 chemicals (12.3%) as high priority actives and 6,742 potential actives (20.8%) to be considered for further testing. Conclusion: This project demonstrated the possibility to screen large libraries of chemicals using a consensus of different in silico approaches. This concept will be applied in future projects related to other

  3. Analysis of Pole Coordinate Data Predictions in the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    ARTIFICIAL SATELLITES , Vol. 46, No. 4 - 2011 DOI: 10.2478/v10018-012-0006-x ANALYSIS OF POLE COORDINATE DATA PREDICTIONS IN THE EARTH ORIENTATION...Warsaw initiated the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project, which was accepted by the IERS Directing Board. The goal of...this project is to determine the feasibility of combining Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions on an operational basis. The ensemble

  4. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  5. EVA Robotic Assistant Project: Platform Attitude Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickels, Kevin M.

    2003-01-01

    The Robotic Systems Technology Branch is currently working on the development of an EVA Robotic Assistant under the sponsorship of the Surface Systems Thrust of the NASA Cross Enterprise Technology Development Program (CETDP). This will be a mobile robot that can follow a field geologist during planetary surface exploration, carry his tools and the samples that he collects, and provide video coverage of his activity. Prior experiments have shown that for such a robot to be useful it must be able to follow the geologist at walking speed over any terrain of interest. Geologically interesting terrain tends to be rough rather than smooth. The commercial mobile robot that was recently purchased as an initial testbed for the EVA Robotic Assistant Project, an ATRV Jr., is capable of faster than walking speed outside but it has no suspension. Its wheels with inflated rubber tires are attached to axles that are connected directly to the robot body. Any angular motion of the robot produced by driving over rough terrain will directly affect the pointing of the on-board stereo cameras. The resulting image motion is expected to make tracking of the geologist more difficult. This will either require the tracker to search a larger part of the image to find the target from frame to frame or to search mechanically in pan and tilt whenever the image motion is large enough to put the target outside the image in the next frame. This project consists of the design and implementation of a Kalman filter that combines the output of the angular rate sensors and linear accelerometers on the robot to estimate the motion of the robot base. The motion of the stereo camera pair mounted on the robot that results from this motion as the robot drives over rough terrain is then straightforward to compute. The estimates may then be used, for example, to command the robot s on-board pan-tilt unit to compensate for the camera motion induced by the base movement. This has been accomplished in two ways

  6. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Kirtman, Ben; Kushnir, Yochanan; Kimoto, Masahide; Meehl, Gerald A.; Msadek, Rym; Mueller, Wolfgang A.; Taylor, Karl E.; Zwiers, Francis; Rixen, Michel; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Eade, Rosie

    2016-10-01

    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the "hiatus", volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to

  7. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model status and updates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This presentation will provide current information on the USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, and its implementation by the USDA-Forest Service (FS), USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and other agencies and universities. Most recently, the USDA-NRCS has begun ef...

  8. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  9. Noise prediction and control of Pudong International Airport expansion project.

    PubMed

    Lei, Bin; Yang, Xin; Yang, Jianguo

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process of the third runway building project of Pudong International Airport is briefly introduced in the paper. The basic principle, the features, and the operation steps of newly imported FAA's Integrated Noise Model (INM) are discussed for evaluating the aircraft noise impacts. The prediction of the aircraft noise and the countermeasures for the noise mitigation are developed, which includes the reasonable runway location, the optimized land use, the selection of low noise aircrafts, the Fly Quit Program, the relocation of sensitive receptors and the noise insulation of sensitive buildings. Finally, the expansion project is justified and its feasibility is confirmed.

  10. GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Science and Implementation Plan is to describe GAPP science objectives and the activities required to meet these objectives, both specifically for the near-term and more generally for the longer-term. The GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) is part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) initiative that is aimed at observing, understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes at various time and spatial scales. The mission of GAPP is to demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources over intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, as an integral part of the climate system.

  11. Predictions of Chemical Weather in Asia: The EU Panda Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, G. P.; Petersen, A. K.; Wang, X.; Granier, C.; Bouarar, I.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality has become a pressing problem in Asia and specifically in China due to rapid economic development (i.e., rapidly expanding motor vehicle fleets, growing industrial and power generation activities, domestic and biomass burning). In spite of efforts to reduce chemical emissions, high levels of particle matter and ozone are observed and lead to severe health problems with a large number of premature deaths. To support efforts to reduce air pollution, the European Union is supporting the PANDA project whose objective is to use space and surface observations of chemical species as well as advanced meteorological and chemical models to analyze and predict air quality in China. The Project involves 7 European and 7 Chinese groups. The paper will describe the objectives of the project and present some first accomplishments. The project focuses on the improvement of methods for monitoring air quality from combined space and in-situ observations, the development of a comprehensive prediction system that makes use of these observations, the elaboration of indicators for air quality in support of policies, and the development of toolboxes for the dissemination of information.

  12. The OASE project: Object-based Analysis and Seamless prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troemel, Silke; Wapler, Kathrin; Bick, Theresa; Diederich, Malte; Deneke, Hartwig; Horvath, Akos; Senf, Fabian; Simmer, Clemens; Simon, Juergen

    2013-04-01

    The research group on Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction (OASE) is part of the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ). The group consists of scientists at the Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, the Leibniz-Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig and the German Weather Service. OASE addresses seamless prediction of convective events from nowcasting to daily predictions by combining radar/satellite compositing and tracking with high-resolution model-based ensemble generation and prediction. While observation-based nowcasting provides good results for lead times between 0-1 hours, numerical weather prediction addresses lead times between 3-21 hours. Especially the discontinuity between 1-3 hours needs to be addressed. Therefore a central goal of the project is a near real-time high-resolved unprecedented data base. A radar and satellite remote sensing-driven 3D observation-microphysics composite covering Germany, currently under development, contains gridded observations and estimated microphysical quantities. Observations and microphysics are intertwined via forward operators and estimated inverse relations, which also provide uncertainties for model ensemble initialisations. The lifetime evolution of dynamics and microphysics in (severe) convective storms is analysed based on 3D scale-space tracking. An object-based analysis condenses the information contained in the dynamic 3D distributions of observables and related microphysics into descriptors, which will allow identifying governing processes leading to the formation and evolution of severe weather events. The object-based approach efficiently characterises and quantifies the process structure and life cycles of severe weather events, and facilitates nowcasting and the generation and initialisation of model prediction ensembles. Observation-based nowcasting will exploit the dual-composite based 3D feature detection and tracking to generate a set of predictions (observation

  13. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  14. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Prediction of membrane protein types using maximum variance projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Yang, Jie

    2011-05-01

    Predicting membrane protein types has a positive influence on further biological function analysis. To quickly and efficiently annotate the type of an uncharacterized membrane protein is a challenge. In this work, a system based on maximum variance projection (MVP) is proposed to improve the prediction performance of membrane protein types. The feature extraction step is based on a hybridization representation approach by fusing Position-Specific Score Matrix composition. The protein sequences are quantized in a high-dimensional space using this representation strategy. Some problems will be brought when analysing these high-dimensional feature vectors such as high computing time and high classifier complexity. To solve this issue, MVP, a novel dimensionality reduction algorithm is introduced by extracting the essential features from the high-dimensional feature space. Then, a K-nearest neighbour classifier is employed to identify the types of membrane proteins based on their reduced low-dimensional features. As a result, the jackknife and independent dataset test success rates of this model reach 86.1 and 88.4%, respectively, and suggest that the proposed approach is very promising for predicting membrane proteins types.

  17. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

  18. Transistor roadmap projection using predictive full-band atomistic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Salmani-Jelodar, M. Klimeck, G.; Kim, S.; Ng, K.

    2014-08-25

    In this letter, a full band atomistic quantum transport tool is used to predict the performance of double gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) over the next 15 years for International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). As MOSFET channel lengths scale below 20 nm, the number of atoms in the device cross-sections becomes finite. At this scale, quantum mechanical effects play an important role in determining the device characteristics. These quantum effects can be captured with the quantum transport tool. Critical results show the ON-current degradation as a result of geometry scaling, which is in contrast to previous ITRS compact model calculations. Geometric scaling has significant effects on the ON-current by increasing source-to-drain (S/D) tunneling and altering the electronic band structure. By shortening the device gate length from 20 nm to 5.1 nm, the ratio of S/D tunneling current to the overall subthreshold OFF-current increases from 18% to 98%. Despite this ON-current degradation by scaling, the intrinsic device speed is projected to increase at a rate of at least 8% per year as a result of the reduction of the quantum capacitance.

  19. Project Evaluation: Validation of a Scale and Analysis of Its Predictive Capacity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernandes Malaquias, Rodrigo; de Oliveira Malaquias, Fernanda Francielle

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to validate a scale for assessment of academic projects. As a complement, we examined its predictive ability by comparing the scores of advised/corrected projects based on the model and the final scores awarded to the work by an examining panel (approximately 10 months after the project design). Results of…

  20. Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi; Rheingrover, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture

  1. Genetic programming as alternative for predicting development effort of individual software projects.

    PubMed

    Chavoya, Arturo; Lopez-Martin, Cuauhtemoc; Andalon-Garcia, Irma R; Meda-Campaña, M E

    2012-01-01

    Statistical and genetic programming techniques have been used to predict the software development effort of large software projects. In this paper, a genetic programming model was used for predicting the effort required in individually developed projects. Accuracy obtained from a genetic programming model was compared against one generated from the application of a statistical regression model. A sample of 219 projects developed by 71 practitioners was used for generating the two models, whereas another sample of 130 projects developed by 38 practitioners was used for validating them. The models used two kinds of lines of code as well as programming language experience as independent variables. Accuracy results from the model obtained with genetic programming suggest that it could be used to predict the software development effort of individual projects when these projects have been developed in a disciplined manner within a development-controlled environment.

  2. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  3. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project

    PubMed Central

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%–80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects. PMID:26495427

  4. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    PubMed

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  5. Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

  6. Predictive Modeling and Integrative Physiology: The Physiome Projects

    PubMed Central

    Bassingthwaighte, James B.

    2012-01-01

    The fundamental paradigm in physiological research is integration. Biological researchers are now ready to define for a species a mathematical construct, the Physiome, the all-encompassing quantitative model of an organism. The goal of the human Physiome project is improved health care, through deep understanding of the organism, all the way down to the genes, reconciling contradictions and clarifying cause and effect. The strategies for accomplishing this long term aim include the systematic gathering of old and new knowledge into shared databases, and integrating the information into self consistent, reproducible, mathematical models. Multiscale models, for practicality, cover only a few levels at a time. Beginning at the middle level, the cell, where the knowledge base is largest and most secure, and the elements well defined as functional biophysical/biochemical modules, the plan is to work up to the organism level and down to the gene level, in the end providing clear linkages between phenotype and the genome. PMID:22919435

  7. A Global Perspective: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Whitlock, Charles H.

    2007-01-01

    The Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, initiated under the NASA Science Mission Directorate Applied Science Energy Management Program, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale that are invaluable to the renewable energy industries, especially to the solar and wind energy sectors. The POWER project derives its data primarily from NASA's World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Version 2.9) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (Version 4). The latest development of the NASA POWER Project and its plans for the future are presented in this paper.

  8. An Overview of the MATERHORN Fog Project: Observations and Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gultepe, I.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Hoch, S. W.; Silver, Z.; Creegan, E.; Leo, L. S.; Pu, Zhaoxia; De Wekker, S. F. J.; Hang, Chaoxun

    2016-09-01

    . Temperature profiles suggested that an inversion layer contributed significantly to IF formation at Heber. Ice fog forecasts via Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicated the limitations of IF predictability. Results suggest that IF predictions need to be improved based on ice microphysical parameterizations and ice nucleation processes.

  9. The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). [Annual Report for 2000

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele; Suarez, Max; Adamec, David; Koster, Randal; Schubert, Siegfried; Hansen, James; Koblinsky, Chester (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of the project is to develop an assimilation and forecast system based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-surface-sea-ice model capable of using a combination of satellite and in situ data sources to improve the prediction of ENSO and other major S-I signals and their global teleconnections. The objectives of this annual report are to: (1) demonstrate the utility of satellite data, especially surface height surface winds, air-sea fluxes and soil moisture, in a coupled model prediction system; and (2) aid in the design of the observing system for short-term climate prediction by conducting OSSE's and predictability studies.

  10. Inroads to Predict in Vivo Toxicology—An Introduction to the eTOX Project

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Katharine; Cases, Montserrat; Heard, David J.; Pastor, Manuel; Pognan, François; Sanz, Ferran; Schwab, Christof H.; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Sutter, Andreas; Watson, David K.; Wichard, Jörg D.

    2012-01-01

    There is a widespread awareness that the wealth of preclinical toxicity data that the pharmaceutical industry has generated in recent decades is not exploited as efficiently as it could be. Enhanced data availability for compound comparison (“read-across”), or for data mining to build predictive tools, should lead to a more efficient drug development process and contribute to the reduction of animal use (3Rs principle). In order to achieve these goals, a consortium approach, grouping numbers of relevant partners, is required. The eTOX (“electronic toxicity”) consortium represents such a project and is a public-private partnership within the framework of the European Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI). The project aims at the development of in silico prediction systems for organ and in vivo toxicity. The backbone of the project will be a database consisting of preclinical toxicity data for drug compounds or candidates extracted from previously unpublished, legacy reports from thirteen European and European operation-based pharmaceutical companies. The database will be enhanced by incorporation of publically available, high quality toxicology data. Seven academic institutes and five small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs) contribute with their expertise in data gathering, database curation, data mining, chemoinformatics and predictive systems development. The outcome of the project will be a predictive system contributing to early potential hazard identification and risk assessment during the drug development process. The concept and strategy of the eTOX project is described here, together with current achievements and future deliverables. PMID:22489185

  11. Inroads to predict in vivo toxicology-an introduction to the eTOX Project.

    PubMed

    Briggs, Katharine; Cases, Montserrat; Heard, David J; Pastor, Manuel; Pognan, François; Sanz, Ferran; Schwab, Christof H; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Sutter, Andreas; Watson, David K; Wichard, Jörg D

    2012-01-01

    There is a widespread awareness that the wealth of preclinical toxicity data that the pharmaceutical industry has generated in recent decades is not exploited as efficiently as it could be. Enhanced data availability for compound comparison ("read-across"), or for data mining to build predictive tools, should lead to a more efficient drug development process and contribute to the reduction of animal use (3Rs principle). In order to achieve these goals, a consortium approach, grouping numbers of relevant partners, is required. The eTOX ("electronic toxicity") consortium represents such a project and is a public-private partnership within the framework of the European Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI). The project aims at the development of in silico prediction systems for organ and in vivo toxicity. The backbone of the project will be a database consisting of preclinical toxicity data for drug compounds or candidates extracted from previously unpublished, legacy reports from thirteen European and European operation-based pharmaceutical companies. The database will be enhanced by incorporation of publically available, high quality toxicology data. Seven academic institutes and five small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs) contribute with their expertise in data gathering, database curation, data mining, chemoinformatics and predictive systems development. The outcome of the project will be a predictive system contributing to early potential hazard identification and risk assessment during the drug development process. The concept and strategy of the eTOX project is described here, together with current achievements and future deliverables.

  12. Reflexión bioética sobre el uso de organismos genéticamente modificados

    PubMed Central

    Yunta, Eduardo Rodríguez

    2011-01-01

    El presente artículo reflexiona desde los 4 principios de la bioética el uso comercial de organismos genéticamente modificados. Se cuestiona fundamentalmente la falta de transferencia de tecnología entre el mundo desarrollado y en desarrollo y el que el presente sistema de patentamiento de organismos vivos modificados fomenta intereses comerciales y no da debida importancia al desarrollo sostenible de la agricultura y ganadería en los países en desarrollo, donde más se necesita. Se reflexiona sobre la importancia que tiene evaluar los riesgos antes de introducirse en el mercado organismos genéticamente modificados y la necesidad de regulación en los países. PMID:21927675

  13. International H2O Project (IHOP) 2002: Datasets Related to Atmospheric Moisture and Rainfall Prediction

    DOE Data Explorer

    Schanot, Allen [IHOP 2002 PI; Friesen, Dick [IHOP 2002 PI

    IHOP 2002 was a field experiment that took place over the Southern Great Plains of the United States from 13 May to 25 June 2002. The chief aim of IHOP_2002 was improved characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection. The region was an optimal location due to existing experimental and operational facilities, strong variability in moisture, and active convection [copied from http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/ihop/]. The project's master list of data identifies 146 publicly accessible datasets.

  14. GI-POP: a combinational annotation and genomic island prediction pipeline for ongoing microbial genome projects.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chi-Ching; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Yao, Tzu-Jung; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Lyu, Ping-Chiang; Tang, Chuan Yi

    2013-04-10

    Sequencing of microbial genomes is important because of microbial-carrying antibiotic and pathogenetic activities. However, even with the help of new assembling software, finishing a whole genome is a time-consuming task. In most bacteria, pathogenetic or antibiotic genes are carried in genomic islands. Therefore, a quick genomic island (GI) prediction method is useful for ongoing sequencing genomes. In this work, we built a Web server called GI-POP (http://gipop.life.nthu.edu.tw) which integrates a sequence assembling tool, a functional annotation pipeline, and a high-performance GI predicting module, in a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called genomic island genomic profile scanning (GI-GPS). The draft genomes of the ongoing genome projects in contigs or scaffolds can be submitted to our Web server, and it provides the functional annotation and highly probable GI-predicting results. GI-POP is a comprehensive annotation Web server designed for ongoing genome project analysis. Researchers can perform annotation and obtain pre-analytic information include possible GIs, coding/non-coding sequences and functional analysis from their draft genomes. This pre-analytic system can provide useful information for finishing a genome sequencing project.

  15. A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M.; Westberg, D.; Whitlock, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    NASA's POWER project, or the Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources project, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale. The products of the project find valuable applications in the solar and wind energy sectors of the renewable energy industries. The primary source data for the POWER project are NASA's World Climate Research Project (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Release 3.0) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (V 4.0.3). Users of the POWER products access the data through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE, Version 6.0) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov). Over 200 parameters are available to the users. The spatial resolution is 1 degree by 1 degree now and will be finer later. The data covers from July 1983 to December 2007, a time-span of 24.5 years, and are provided as 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. As of now, there have been over 18 million web hits and over 4 million data file downloads. The POWER products have been systematically validated against ground-based measurements, and in particular, data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) archive, and also against the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Parameters such as minimum, maximum, daily mean temperature and dew points, relative humidity and surface pressure are validated against the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) data. SSE feeds data directly into Decision Support Systems including RETScreen International clean energy project analysis software that is written in 36 languages and has greater than 260,000 users worldwide.

  16. Sub-seismic Deformation Prediction of Potential Pathways and Seismic Validation - The Joint Project PROTECT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krawczyk, C. M.; Kolditz, O.

    2013-12-01

    The joint project PROTECT (PRediction Of deformation To Ensure Carbon Traps) aims to determine the existence and characteristics of sub-seismic structures that can potentially link deep reservoirs with the surface in the framework of CO2 underground storage. The research provides a new approach of assessing the long-term integrity of storage reservoirs. The objective is predicting and quantifying the distribution and the amount of sub-/seismic strain caused by fault movement in the proximity of a CO2 storage reservoir. The study is developing tools and workflows which will be tested at the CO2CRC Otway Project Site in the Otway Basin in south-western Victoria, Australia. For this purpose, we are building a geometrical kinematic 3-D model based on 2-D and 3-D seismic data that are provided by the Australian project partner, the CO2CRC Consortium. By retro-deforming the modeled subsurface faults in the inspected subsurface volume we can determine the accumulated sub-seismic deformation and thus the strain variation around the faults. Depending on lithology, the calculated strain magnitude and its orientation can be used as an indicator for fracture density. Furthermore, from the complete 3D strain tensor we can predict the orientation of fractures at sub-seismic scale. In areas where we have preliminary predicted critical deformation, we will acquire in November this year new near- surface, high resolution P- and S-wave 2-D seismic data in order to verify and calibrate our model results. Here, novel and parameter-based model building will especially benefit from extracting velocities and elastic parameters from VSP and other seismic data. Our goal is to obtain a better overview of possible fluid migration pathways and communication between reservoir and overburden. Thereby, we will provide a tool for prediction and adapted time-dependent monitoring strategies for subsurface storage in general including scientific visualization capabilities. Acknowledgement This work

  17. Low amplitude insult project: Structural analysis and prediction of low order reaction

    SciTech Connect

    Scammon, R.J.; Browning, R.V.; Middleditch, J.; Dienes, J.K.; Haberman, K.S.; Bennett, J.G.

    1998-12-31

    The low velocity impact sensitivity of PBX 9501 has been investigated through a series of experiments based on the Steven Test targets and a set of Shear Impact experiments. The authors describe calculations done using DYNA2D, SPRONTO and DYNA3D to support these, and other, low amplitude insult experiments. The calculations allow them to study pressure and strain rate variables, to investigate structural aspects of the experiment, and to predict velocities required for reaction. Structural analyses have played an active role in this project beginning with the original target design and continuing through analyses of the experimental results. Alternative designs and various ideas for active instrumentation were examined as part of the experiment evolution process. Predictions of reaction are used to guide these design studies, even though the authors do not yet have enough experimental data to fully calibrate any of the models.

  18. EPA Project Updates: DSSTox and ToxCast Generating New Data and Data Linkages for Use in Predictive Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPAs National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction. The DSSTox project is improving public access to quality structure-annotated chemical toxicity information in less summarized forms than tr...

  19. Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT): a naturalistic project protocol

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent and represent a significant and well described public health burden. Whilst first line psychological treatments are effective for nearly half of attenders, there remain a substantial number of patients who do not benefit. The main objective of the present project is to establish an infrastructure platform for the identification of factors that predict lack of response to psychological treatment for depression and anxiety, in order to better target treatments as well as to support translational and experimental medicine research in mood and anxiety disorders. Methods/design Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT) is a naturalistic observational project that began patient recruitment in January 2014. The project is currently taking place in Southwark Psychological Therapies Service, an Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) service currently provided by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM). However, the aim is to roll-out the project across other IAPT services. Participants are approached before beginning treatment and offered a baseline interview whilst they are waiting for therapy to begin. This allows us to test for relationships between predictor variables and patient outcome measures. At the baseline interview, participants complete a diagnostic interview; are asked to give blood and hair samples for relevant biomarkers, and complete psychological and social questionnaire measures. Participants then complete their psychological therapy as offered by Southwark Psychological Therapies Service. Response to psychological therapy will be measured using standard IAPT outcome data, which are routinely collected at each appointment. Discussion This project addresses a need to understand treatment response rates in primary care psychological therapy services for those with depression and/or anxiety. Measurement of a range of predictor variables allows for

  20. The Ability of Standardized Test Instruments to Predict Training Success and Employment Success. Project MINI-SCORE, Final Technical Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pucel, David J.; And Others

    Using post-secondary vocational and technical education students as the populations, the objectives of this project were to determine: (1) the ability of standardized instruments to predict the various criteria of success, (2) the relative ability of the different instruments to predict each criterion of success, and (3) which sub-set of all of…

  1. Predicting and mapping potential Whooping Crane stopover habitat to guide site selection for wind energy projects.

    PubMed

    Belaire, J Amy; Kreakie, Betty J; Keitt, Timothy; Minor, Emily

    2014-04-01

    Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions.

  2. Toward a unified system for understanding, predicting and projecting regional hurricane activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Delworth, T. L.; Yang, X.; Murakami, H.; Zhang, W.; Underwood, S.; Zeng, F. J.; Jia, L.; Kapnick, S. B.; Paffendorf, K.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Msadek, R.; Villarini, G.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.; Harris, L.; Gudgel, R.; Stern, B.; Zhang, S.

    2015-12-01

    A family of high-resolution (50km and 25km atmospheric/land resolution) global coupled climate models provide a unified framework towards the understanding, intraseasonal-to-decadal prediction and decadal to multi-decadal projection of regional and extreme climate, including tropical cyclones. Initialized predictions of global hurricane activity show skill on regional scales, comparable to the skill on basin-wide scales, suggesting that regional seasonal TC predictions may be a feasible forecast target. The 25km version of the model shows skill at seasonal predictions of the frequency of the most intense hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5 and Cat. 4-5). It is shown that large-scale systematic errors in the mean-state are a key constraint on the simulation and prediction of variations of regional climate and extremes, and methodologies for overcoming model biases are explored. Improvements in predictions of regional climate are due both to improved representation of local processes, and to improvements in the large-scale climate and variability from improved process representation. These models are used to explore the the response of tropical cyclones, both globally and regionally, to increasing greenhouse gases and to internal climate variations. The 25km model in generally shows a more faithful representation of the impact of climate variability on hurricane activity than the 50km model. The response of the total number and the total power dissipation index of tropical cyclones to increasing greenhouse gases can differ substantially between models of two atmospheric resolutions, 50km and 25km - with the 25km version of the model showing a larger increase in power dissipation from increasing greenhouse gases, principally because - in contrast to that of the 50km model - its global hurricane frequency does not decrease with increasing CO2. Some thoughts on the reasons behind those differences will be offered. The 25km model shows an increase in the frequency of intense tropical

  3. NERI PROJECT 99-119. TASK 2. DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTION OF PROCESS VARIABLES. FINAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    Upadhyaya, B.R.

    2003-04-10

    This report describes the detailed results for task 2 of DOE-NERI project number 99-119 entitled ''Automatic Development of Highly Reliable Control Architecture for Future Nuclear Power Plants''. This project is a collaboration effort between the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL,) The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and the North Carolina State University (NCSU). UTK is the lead organization for Task 2 under contract number DE-FG03-99SF21906. Under task 2 we completed the development of data-driven models for the characterization of sub-system dynamics for predicting state variables, control functions, and expected control actions. We have also developed the ''Principal Component Analysis (PCA)'' approach for mapping system measurements, and a nonlinear system modeling approach called the ''Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH)'' with rational functions, and includes temporal data information for transient characterization. The majority of the results are presented in detailed reports for Phases 1 through 3 of our research, which are attached to this report.

  4. Projecting the performance of risk prediction based on polygenic analyses of genome-wide association studies

    PubMed Central

    Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Wheeler, Bill; Sampson, Joshua; Hartge, Patricia; Chanock, Stephen J.; Park, Ju-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    We report a new model to project the predictive performance of polygenic models based on the number and distribution of effect sizes for the underlying susceptibility alleles and the size of the training dataset. Using estimates of effect-size distribution and heritability derived from current studies, we project that while 45% of the variance of height has been attributed to common tagging Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP), a model trained on one million people may only explain 33.4% of variance of the trait. Current studies can identify 3.0%, 1.1%, and 7.0%, of the populations who are at two-fold or higher than average risk for Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and prostate cancer, respectively. Tripling of sample sizes could elevate the percentages to 18.8%, 6.1%, and 12.2%, respectively. The utility of future polygenic models will depend on achievable sample sizes, underlying genetic architecture and information on other risk-factors, including family history. PMID:23455638

  5. Recording A Sunrise: A Citizen Science Project to Enhance Sunrise/set Prediction Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Teresa; Chizek Frouard, Malynda; Bartlett, Jennifer L.

    2017-01-01

    Smartphones, with their ever increasing capabilities, are becoming quite instrumental for data acquisition in a number of fields. Understanding refraction and how it affects what we see on the horizon is no exception. Current algorithms that predict sunrise and sunset times have an error of one to four minutes at mid-latitudes (0° - 55° N/S) due to limitations in the atmospheric models they incorporate. At higher latitudes, slight changes in refraction can cause significant discrepancies, even including difficulties determining when the Sun appears to rise or set. A thorough investigation of the problem requires a substantial data set of observed rise/set times and corresponding meteorological data from around the world, which is currently lacking. We have developed a mobile application so that this data can be taken using smartphones as part of a citizen science project. The app allows the viewer to submit a video of sunrise/set and attaches geographic location along with meteorological data taken from a local weather station. The project will help increase scientific awareness in the public by allowing members of the community to participate in the data-taking process, and give them a greater awareness of the scientific significance of phenomenon they witness every day. The data from the observations will lead to more complete rise/set models that will provide more accurate times to the benefit of astronomers, navigators, and outdoorsmen. The app will be available on the Google Play Store.

  6. Projection-free parallel quadratic programming for linear model predictive control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Cairano, S.; Brand, M.; Bortoff, S. A.

    2013-08-01

    A key component in enabling the application of model predictive control (MPC) in fields such as automotive, aerospace, and factory automation is the availability of low-complexity fast optimisation algorithms to solve the MPC finite horizon optimal control problem in architectures with reduced computational capabilities. In this paper, we introduce a projection-free iterative optimisation algorithm and discuss its application to linear MPC. The algorithm, originally developed by Brand for non-negative quadratic programs, is based on a multiplicative update rule and it is shown to converge to a fixed point which is the optimum. An acceleration technique based on a projection-free line search is also introduced, to speed-up the convergence to the optimum. The algorithm is applied to MPC through the dual of the quadratic program (QP) formulated from the MPC finite time optimal control problem. We discuss how termination conditions with guaranteed degree of suboptimality can be enforced, and how the algorithm performance can be optimised by pre-computing the matrices in a parametric form. We show computational results of the algorithm in three common case studies and we compare such results with the results obtained by other available free and commercial QP solvers.

  7. Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

    2013-04-01

    Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia

  8. The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backhaus, Thomas; Altenburger, Rolf; Arrhenius, Åsa; Blanck, Hans; Faust, Michael; Finizio, Antonio; Gramatica, Paola; Grote, Matthias; Junghans, Marion; Meyer, Wiebke; Pavan, Manuela; Porsbring, Tobias; Scholze, Martin; Todeschini, Roberto; Vighi, Marco; Walter, Helge; Horst Grimme, L.

    2003-11-01

    Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context. In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and

  9. Geothermal Project Den Haag - 3-D models for temperature prediction and reservoir characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mottaghy, D.; Pechnig, R.; Willemsen, G.; Simmelink, H. J.; Vandeweijer, V.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the "Den Haag Zuidwest" geothermal district heating system a deep geothermal installation is projected. The target horizon of the planned doublet is the "Delft sandstone" which has been extensively explored for oil- and gas reservoirs in the last century. In the target area, this upper Jurassic sandstone layer is found at a depth of about 2300 m with an average thickness of about 50 m. The study presented here focuses on the prediction of reservoir temperatures and production behavior which is crucial for planning a deep geothermal installation. In the first phase, the main objective was to find out whether there is a significant influence of the 3-dimensional structures of anticlines and synclines on the temperature field, which could cause formation temperatures deviating from the predicted extrapolated temperature data from oil and gas exploration wells. To this end a regional model was set up as a basis for steady state numerical simulations. Since representative input parameters are decisive for reliable model results, all available information was compiled: a) the subsurface geometry, depth and thickness of the stratigraphic layers known from seismic data sets 2) borehole geophysical data and c) geological and petrographical information from exploration wells. In addition 50 cuttings samples were taken from two selected key wells in order to provide direct information on thermal properties of the underlying strata. Thermal conductivity and rock matrix density were measured in the laboratory. These data were combined with a petrophysical log analysis (Gamma Ray, Sonic, Density and Resistivity), which resulted in continuous profiles of porosity, effective thermal conductivity and radiogenetic heat production. These profiles allowed to asses in detail the variability of the petrophysical properties with depth and to check for lateral changes between the wells. All this data entered the numerical simulations which were performed by a 3-D

  10. The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2006

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    physical environment of ocean ecosystems. Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate system in the...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2006 Dean H...1. REPORT DATE 2006 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Argo Project Global Ocean

  11. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  12. The CI-Flow Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-11-01

    for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 0601153N 6...prototype new hydrometeorologic techniques to address a critical NOAA service gap: routine total water level predictions for tidally influenced...watersheds Since February 2000, the project has focused on developing a coupled modeling system to accurately account for water at all locations in a

  13. EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox)-overview and outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-04-15

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and 'omics' technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of 'omics' and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that 'omics' technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated 'omics' analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  14. Prediction of sub-seismic faults and fractures to ensure carbon traps - joint project PROTECT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziesch, Jennifer; Tanner, David C.; Beilecke, Thies; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.

    2015-04-01

    Deformation in the form of fractures and faults affects many reservoirs and their overburden. In a 3-D seismic data set we can identify faults on the large scale, while in well data we observe small-scale fractures. A large number of faults at the intermediate scale (sub-seismic space) also plays a very important role, but these are not detectable with conventional geophysical methods. Therefore, we use the retro-deformation approach within the context of long-term CO2 storage integrity to determine the characteristics of potential fluid migration pathways between reservoir and surface. This allows to produce strain maps, in order to analyse fault behaviour in the sub-seismic space. As part of the PROTECT (prediction of deformation to ensure carbon traps) project we focus on the sub-seismic faults of the CO2CRC Otway Project site in Australia. We interpreted a geological 3-D model of 8 km x 7 km x 4.5 km that comprises 8 stratigraphic horizons and 24 large-scale faults. This confirmed the site to contain a complex system of south-dipping normal faults and north-dipping antithetic normal faults. The most important aspect is that two different types of fault kinematics were simultaneously active: Dip-slip and a combination of dip-slip with dextral strike slip movement. After the retro-deformation of the 3-D model we calculated strain tensor maps to locate highly deformed or fractured zones and their orientation within the stratigraphic volume. The e1-strain magnitude shows heterogeneous distribution. The south of the study area is at least twice as much fractured on a sub-seismic scale. Four major faults act as "controlling faults" with smaller faults in between. The overburden is tilted northwards after retro-deformation. Thus, we believe that the area was affected by an even larger normal fault outside of the study area. In summary, this study reveals that good knowledge of the kinematics of the large-scale faults is essential to predict sub-seismic structures

  15. Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollis, Brian R.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Coblish, Joseph J.; Norris, Joseph D.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.

    2009-01-01

    An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the

  16. Delineation of homogenous regions using hydrological variables predicted by projection pursuit regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durocher, Martin; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the utilization of hydrological information in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to enforce desired properties for a group of gauged stations. Neighbourhoods are particular types of regions that are centred on target locations. A challenge for using neighbourhoods in RFFA is that hydrological information is not available at target locations and cannot be completely replaced by the available physiographical information. Instead of using the available physiographic characteristics to define the centre of a target location, this study proposes to introduce estimates of reference hydrological variables to ensure a better homogeneity. These reference variables represent nonlinear relations with the site characteristics obtained by projection pursuit regression, a nonparametric regression method. The resulting neighbourhoods are investigated in combination with commonly used regional models: the index-flood model and regression-based models. The complete approach is illustrated in a real-world case study with gauged sites from the southern part of the province of Québec, Canada, and is compared with the traditional approaches such as region of influence and canonical correlation analysis. The evaluation focuses on the neighbourhood properties as well as prediction performances, with special attention devoted to problematic stations. Results show clear improvements in neighbourhood definitions and quantile estimates.

  17. The CONVEX project - Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, Hayley; Kendon, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Chan, Steven; Ferro, Christopher; Roberts, Nigel; Stephenson, David; Jones, Richard; Sessford, Pat

    2013-04-01

    During the last decade, widespread major flood events in the UK and across the rest of Europe have focussed attention on perceived increases in rainfall intensities. Whilst Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to simulate the magnitude and spatial pattern of observed daily extreme rainfall events more reliably than Global Circulation Models (GCMs), they still underestimate extreme rainfall in relation to observations. Particularly during the summer a large proportion of the precipitation comes from convective storms that are typically too small to be explicitly represented by climate models. Instead, convection parameterisation schemes are necessary to represent the larger-scale effect of unresolved convective cells. Given the deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall by climate models, even in the current generation of high-resolution RCMs, the CONVEX project (CONVective EXtremes) argues that an integrated approach is needed that brings together observations, basic understanding and models. This should go hand in hand with a change from a focus on traditional validation exercises (comparing modelled and observed extremes) to an understanding and quantification of the causes of model deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall processes on different spatial and temporal scales. It is particularly true for localised intense summer convection. CONVEX therefore aims to contribute to the goals of enabling society to respond to global climate change and predicting the regional and local impacts of environmental change. In addition to an improved understanding of the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall processes (principally in the UK) the project is also assessing the influence of model parameterisations and resolution on the simulation of extreme rainfall events and processes. This includes the running of new RCM simulations undertaken by the UK Meteorological Office at 50km and 12km resolutions (parameterised convection) and

  18. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  19. Evaluation of numerical weather predictions performed in the context of the project DAPHNE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Bampzelis, Dimitris; Karacostas, Theodore

    2014-05-01

    The region of Thessaly in central Greece is one of the main areas of agricultural production in Greece. Severe weather phenomena affect the agricultural production in this region with adverse effects for farmers and the national economy. For this reason the project DAPHNE aims at tackling the problem of drought by means of weather modification through the development of the necessary tools to support the application of a rainfall enhancement program. In the present study the numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW is used, in order to assess its ability to represent extreme weather phenomena in the region of Thessaly. WRF is integrated in three domains covering Europe, Eastern Mediterranean and Central-Northern Greece (Thessaly and a large part of Macedonia) using telescoping nesting with grid spacing of 15km, 5km and 1.667km, respectively. The cases examined span throughout the transitional and warm period (April to September) of the years 2008 to 2013, including days with thunderstorm activity. Model results are evaluated against all available surface observations and radar products, taking into account the spatial characteristics and intensity of the storms. Preliminary results indicate a good level of agreement between the simulated and observed fields as far as the standard parameters (such as temperature, humidity and precipitation) are concerned. Moreover, the model generally exhibits a potential to represent the occurrence of the convective activity, but not its exact spatiotemporal characteristics. Acknowledgements This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013)

  20. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dun, Shuhui; Wu, Joan Q.; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Flanagan, Dennis C.; Frankenberger, James R.; Brown, Robert E.; Xu, Arthur C.

    2009-03-01

    SummaryThere has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of runoff, such as modeling erosion from roads, harvested units, and burned areas by wildfire or prescribed fire. Nevertheless, when used for modeling water flow and sediment discharge from natural forest watersheds where subsurface flow is dominant, WEPP (v2004.7) underestimates these quantities, in particular, the water flow at the watershed outlet. The main goal of this study was to improve the WEPP v2004.7 so that it can be applied to adequately simulate forest watershed hydrology and erosion. The specific objectives were to modify WEPP v2004.7 algorithms and subroutines that improperly represent forest subsurface hydrologic processes; and, to assess the performance of the modified model by applying it to a research forest watershed in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Changes were made in WEPP v2004.7 to better model percolation of soil water and subsurface lateral flow. The modified model, WEPP v2008.9, was applied to the Hermada watershed located in the Boise National Forest, in southern Idaho, USA. The results from v2008.9 and v2004.7 as well as the field observations were compared. For the period of 1995-2000, average annual precipitation for the study area was 954 mm. Simulated annual watershed discharge was negligible using WEPP v2004.7, and was 262 mm using WEPP v2008.9, agreeable with field-observed 275 mm.

  1. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies.

    PubMed

    DeRolph, Christopher R; Schramm, Michael P; Bevelhimer, Mark S

    2016-10-01

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multi-faceted explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements are functions of a range of factors, from biophysical to socio-political. Project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

  2. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

    SciTech Connect

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

    2016-06-06

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

  3. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

    DOE PAGES

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

    2016-06-06

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

  4. Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

    EPA Science Inventory

    Migration is one of the most poorly understood components of a bird’s life cycle. For that reason, migratory stopover habitats are often not part of conservation planning and may be overlooked when planning new development projects. This project highlights and addresses an overl...

  5. The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2005

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    environment of ocean ecosystems. Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate system in the past 40...years occurred in the oceans. Climate stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching ...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2005 Dean H

  6. The Ago Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2005

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    defining the physical environment of ocean ecosystems. Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate... coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a varying climate on the health of the seas and coastal ecosystems will become an increasingly...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2005 Dean H

  7. The ARGO Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2004

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-01-01

    Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate system in the past 40 years occurred in the oceans. Climate...stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2004 Dean H

  8. Assessing the capability of numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion: the Euroseistest verification and validation project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaljub, E. O.; Bard, P.; Tsuno, S.; Kristek, J.; Moczo, P.; Franek, P.; Hollender, F.; Manakou, M.; Raptakis, D.; Pitilakis, K.

    2009-12-01

    During the last decades, an important effort has been dedicated to develop accurate and computationally efficient numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion in heterogeneous 3D media. The progress in methods and increasing capability of computers have made it technically feasible to calculate realistic seismograms for frequencies of interest in seismic design applications. In order to foster the use of numerical simulation in practical prediction, it is important to (1) evaluate the accuracy of current numerical methods when applied to realistic 3D applications where no reference solution exists (verification) and (2) quantify the agreement between recorded and numerically simulated earthquake ground motion (validation). Here we report the results of the Euroseistest verification and validation project - an ongoing international collaborative work organized jointly by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, the Cashima research project (supported by the French nuclear agency, CEA, and the Laue-Langevin institute, ILL, Grenoble), and the Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France. The project involves more than 10 international teams from Europe, Japan and USA. The teams employ the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM), the Global Pseudospectral Method (GPSM), the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and the Discrete Element Method (DEM). The project makes use of a new detailed 3D model of the Mygdonian basin (about 5 km wide, 15 km long, sediments reach about 400 m depth, surface S-wave velocity is 200 m/s). The prime target is to simulate 8 local earthquakes with magnitude from 3 to 5. In the verification, numerical predictions for frequencies up to 4 Hz for a series of models with increasing structural and rheological complexity are analyzed and compared using quantitative time-frequency goodness-of-fit criteria. Predictions obtained by one FDM team and the SEM team are close and different from other predictions

  9. Study or Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) Project : Prediction of Sepsis in the Burn ICU Patient

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-15

    suspected infection ? Study Aims: a) Develop a multivariable predictive model for detection of bacteremia in the burned ICU patient using 12...clinical measures associated with presence of infection (temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, platelet count, insulin resistance, feeding intolerance...independent group of burn ICU patients during periods of documented sepsis and absence of infection ; Hypothesis: A multivariate prediction model will

  10. Predictive In Vitro Screening of Environmental Chemicals – The ToxCast Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    ToxCast, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s chemical prioritization research program, is developing methods for utilizing computational chemistry and bioactivity profiling to predict potential for toxicity and prioritize limited testing resources (www.epa.gov/toc...

  11. Performance predictions for mechanical excavators in Yucca Mountain tuffs; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Ozdemir, L.; Gertsch, L.; Neil, D.; Friant, J.

    1992-09-01

    The performances of several mechanical excavators are predicted for use in the tuffs at Yucca Mountain: Tunnel boring machines, the Mobile Miner, a roadheader, a blind shaft borer, a vertical wheel shaft boring machine, raise drills, and V-Moles. Work summarized is comprised of three parts: Initial prediction using existing rock physical property information; Measurement of additional rock physical properties; and Revision of the initial predictions using the enhanced database. The performance predictions are based on theoretical and empirical relationships between rock properties and the forces-experienced by rock cutters and bits during excavation. Machine backup systems and excavation design aspects, such as curves and grades, are considered in determining excavator utilization factors. Instanteous penetration rate, advance rate, and cutter costs are the fundamental performance indicators.

  12. Analysis and Prediction of User Editing Patterns in Ontology Development Projects

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hao; Tudorache, Tania; Dou, Dejing; Noy, Natalya F.; Musen, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of real-world ontologies is a complex undertaking, commonly involving a group of domain experts with different expertise that work together in a collaborative setting. These ontologies are usually large scale and have complex structures. To assist in the authoring process, ontology tools are key at making the editing process as streamlined as possible. Being able to predict confidently what the users are likely to do next as they edit an ontology will enable us to focus and structure the user interface accordingly and to facilitate more efficient interaction and information discovery. In this paper, we use data mining, specifically the association rule mining, to investigate whether we are able to predict the next editing operation that a user will make based on the change history. We simulated and evaluated continuous prediction across time using sliding window model. We used the association rule mining to generate patterns from the ontology change logs in the training window and tested these patterns on logs in the adjacent testing window. We also evaluated the impact of different training and testing window sizes on the prediction accuracies. At last, we evaluated our prediction accuracies across different user groups and different ontologies. Our results indicate that we can indeed predict the next editing operation a user is likely to make. We will use the discovered editing patterns to develop a recommendation module for our editing tools, and to design user interface components that better fit with the user editing behaviors. PMID:26052350

  13. Analysis and Prediction of User Editing Patterns in Ontology Development Projects.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hao; Tudorache, Tania; Dou, Dejing; Noy, Natalya F; Musen, Mark A

    2015-06-01

    The development of real-world ontologies is a complex undertaking, commonly involving a group of domain experts with different expertise that work together in a collaborative setting. These ontologies are usually large scale and have complex structures. To assist in the authoring process, ontology tools are key at making the editing process as streamlined as possible. Being able to predict confidently what the users are likely to do next as they edit an ontology will enable us to focus and structure the user interface accordingly and to facilitate more efficient interaction and information discovery. In this paper, we use data mining, specifically the association rule mining, to investigate whether we are able to predict the next editing operation that a user will make based on the change history. We simulated and evaluated continuous prediction across time using sliding window model. We used the association rule mining to generate patterns from the ontology change logs in the training window and tested these patterns on logs in the adjacent testing window. We also evaluated the impact of different training and testing window sizes on the prediction accuracies. At last, we evaluated our prediction accuracies across different user groups and different ontologies. Our results indicate that we can indeed predict the next editing operation a user is likely to make. We will use the discovered editing patterns to develop a recommendation module for our editing tools, and to design user interface components that better fit with the user editing behaviors.

  14. Prediction of mode specificity in 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions using the Sudden Vector Projection model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Anyang; Guo, Hua

    2015-03-01

    Mode specificity in the cycloaddition of 1,3-dipoles to ethene and ethyne is investigated with the newly proposed Sudden Vector Projection (SVP) model, which attributes the promoting ability of a reactant mode to its projection onto the reaction coordinate at the transition state. The SVP model revealed that dipole bending and translational modes have large components in the reaction coordinate, consistent with the recent direct dynamics studies. It further identified several other promoting modes. The success of the SVP model is encouraging as it requires no dynamics calculations, and as a result it can be applied to many reactions.

  15. Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2016-05-01

    Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

  16. Plate Boundaries and Earthquake Prediction. Crustal Evolution Education Project. Teacher's Guide [and] Student Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoever, Edward C., Jr.

    Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) modules were designed to: (1) provide students with the methods and results of continuing investigations into the composition, history, and processes of the earth's crust and the application of this knowledge to man's activities and (2) to be used by teachers with little or no previous background in the…

  17. The Role of Social Relationships in Predicting Loneliness: The National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Leitsch, Sara A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors explore associations between objective and subjective social network characteristics and loneliness in later life, using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, a nationally representative sample of individuals ages 57 to 85 in the United States. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations…

  18. Pipeline experiment co-located with USGS Parkfield earthquake prediction project

    SciTech Connect

    Isenberg, J.; Richardson, E.

    1995-12-31

    A field experiment to investigate the response of buried pipelines to lateral offsets and traveling waves has been operational since June, 1988 at the Owens` Pasture site near Parkfield, CA where the US Geological Survey has predicted a M6 earthquake. Although the predicted earthquake has not yet occurred, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1992 M4.7 earthquake near Parkfield produced measurable response at the pipeline experiment. The present paper describes upgrades to the experiment which were introduced after Loma Prieta which performed successfully in the 1992 event.

  19. Some Influences on Teachers and Teaching in 2030: Projections, Predictions, and a Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newcombe, P. Judson

    Predominant in a list of the problems and predictions for education in general and speech communication education in particular for tbe next 50 years are both the changing form and function of the educator. A scenario of education in 2030 includes a nationwide teacher agreement that results in the release of students from mandatory attendance at…

  20. Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 8: Satellite snow mapping and runoff prediction handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowley, C. J.; Barnes, J. C.; Rango, A.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of the handbook is to update the various snowcover interpretation techniques, document the snow mapping techniques used in the various ASVT study areas, and describe the ways snowcover data have been applied to runoff prediction. Through documentation in handbook form, the methodology developed in the Snow Mapping ASVT can be applied to other areas.

  1. Predictive medicine: outcomes, challenges and opportunities in the Synergy-COPD project

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major challenge for healthcare. Heterogeneities in clinical manifestations and in disease progression are relevant traits in COPD with impact on patient management and prognosis. It is hypothesized that COPD heterogeneity results from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering. Objectives To assess the potential of systems medicine to better understand non-pulmonary determinants of COPD heterogeneity. To transfer acquired knowledge to healthcare enhancing subject-specific health risk assessment and stratification to improve management of chronic patients. Method Underlying mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction and of co-morbidity clustering in COPD patients were explored with strategies combining deterministic modelling and network medicine analyses using the Biobridge dataset. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was done (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). A targeted network analysis using the two studies: skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering explored shared pathways between them. Results (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of pivotal skeletal muscle biological pathways and increased risk for co-morbidity clustering was observed in COPD; (2) shared abnormal pathway regulation between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering; and, (3) technological achievements of the projects were: (i) COPD Knowledge Base; (ii) novel modelling approaches; (iii) Simulation Environment; and, (iv) three layers of Clinical Decision Support Systems. Conclusions The project demonstrated the high potential of a systems medicine approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Limiting factors for the project development were identified. They were relevant to shape strategies fostering 4P Medicine for

  2. Development of Procedures for Assessing the Impact of Vocational Education Research and Development on Vocational Education (Project IMPACT). Volume 8--A Field Study of Predicting Impact of Research and Development Projects in Vocational and Technical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malhorta, Man Mohanlal

    As part of Project IMPACT's effort to identify and develop procedures for complying with the impact requirements of Public Law 94-482, a field study was conducted to identify and validate variables and their order of importance in predicting and evaluating impact of research and development (R&D) projects in vocational and technical education.…

  3. The BAD project: data mining, database and prediction of protein adsorption on surfaces.

    PubMed

    Vasina, Elena N; Paszek, Ewa; Nicolau, Dan V; Nicolau, Dan V

    2009-04-07

    Protein adsorption at solid-liquid interfaces is critical to many applications, including biomaterials, protein microarrays and lab-on-a-chip devices. Despite this general interest, and a large amount of research in the last half a century, protein adsorption cannot be predicted with an engineering level, design-orientated accuracy. Here we describe a Biomolecular Adsorption Database (BAD), freely available online, which archives the published protein adsorption data. Piecewise linear regression with breakpoint applied to the data in the BAD suggests that the input variables to protein adsorption, i.e., protein concentration in solution; protein descriptors derived from primary structure (number of residues, global protein hydrophobicity and range of amino acid hydrophobicity, isoelectric point); surface descriptors (contact angle); and fluid environment descriptors (pH, ionic strength), correlate well with the output variable-the protein concentration on the surface. Furthermore, neural network analysis revealed that the size of the BAD makes it sufficiently representative, with a neural network-based predictive error of 5% or less. Interestingly, a consistently better fit is obtained if the BAD is divided in two separate sub-sets representing protein adsorption on hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces, respectively. Based on these findings, selected entries from the BAD have been used to construct neural network-based estimation routines, which predict the amount of adsorbed protein, the thickness of the adsorbed layer and the surface tension of the protein-covered surface. While the BAD is of general interest, the prediction of the thickness and the surface tension of the protein-covered layers are of particular relevance to the design of microfluidics devices.

  4. Performance of the operational high-resolution numerical weather predictions of the Daphne project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stelios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    In the framework of the DAPHNE project, the Department of Meteorology and Climatology (http://meteo.geo.auth.gr) of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, utilizes the nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW) in order to produce high-resolution weather forecasts over Thessaly in central Greece. The aim of the DAPHNE project is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification. Cloud seeding assists the convective clouds to produce rain more efficiently or reduce hailstone size in favour of raindrops. The most favourable conditions for such a weather modification program in Thessaly occur in the period from March to October when convective clouds are triggered more frequently. Three model domains, using 2-way telescoping nesting, cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa (D01), ii) Greece (D02) and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (D03; at selected periods) at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively. This research work intents to describe the atmospheric model setup and analyse its performance during a selected period of the operational phase of the project. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts is performed using surface observations, gridded fields and radar data. Well established point verification methods combined with novel object based upon these methods, provide in depth analysis of the model skill. Spatial characteristics are adequately captured but a variable time lag between forecast and observation is noted. Acknowledgments: This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness

  5. Future global and regional climate change: From near-term prediction to long-term projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.; Collins, M.; Power, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Christensen, J. H.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC AR5 assessed results from a hierarchy of different climate models on how climate might change in the future from decades to millennia. The projections are based on a series of new climate models and for new scenarios. They are very consistent with projections in AR4 and confirm widespread changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land under emission scenarios without mitigation. In the late 21st century and beyond, the warming is dominated by the total emissions of CO2, and many changes will persist for centuries even if emissions were stopped. Stabilization of global temperature at 2°C above the preindustrial value for example, requires strong emission reductions over the 21st century. In the near term and locally however, interannual and decadal climate variability remains a large and mostly irreducible component of the uncertainty in projections. Improving the quality of information on regional climate change and improving the ability of the scientific community to perform near-term climate predictions are key challenges for the future. The development of a consensus in the climate science community on (i) the major directions for future model development and (ii) the scope of future coordinated model experiments will help serve the needs of both future IPCC assessments and the wider research community.

  6. Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in

  7. Zsyntax: a formal language for molecular biology with projected applications in text mining and biological prediction.

    PubMed

    Boniolo, Giovanni; D'Agostino, Marcello; Di Fiore, Pier Paolo

    2010-03-03

    We propose a formal language that allows for transposing biological information precisely and rigorously into machine-readable information. This language, which we call Zsyntax (where Z stands for the Greek word zetaomegaeta, life), is grounded on a particular type of non-classical logic, and it can be used to write algorithms and computer programs. We present it as a first step towards a comprehensive formal language for molecular biology in which any biological process can be written and analyzed as a sort of logical "deduction". Moreover, we illustrate the potential value of this language, both in the field of text mining and in that of biological prediction.

  8. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, Daniel A.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

  9. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  10. SWAT system performance predictions. Project report. [SWAT (Short-Wavelength Adaptive Techniques)

    SciTech Connect

    Parenti, R.R.; Sasiela, R.J.

    1993-03-10

    In the next phase of Lincoln Laboratory's SWAT (Short-Wavelength Adaptive Techniques) program, the performance of a 241-actuator adaptive-optics system will be measured using a variety of synthetic-beacon geometries. As an aid in this experimental investigation, a detailed set of theoretical predictions has also been assembled. The computational tools that have been applied in this study include a numerical approach in which Monte-Carlo ray-trace simulations of accumulated phase error are developed, and an analytical analysis of the expected system behavior. This report describes the basis of these two computational techniques and compares their estimates of overall system performance. Although their regions of applicability tend to be complementary rather than redundant, good agreement is usually obtained when both sets of results can be derived for the same engagement scenario.... Adaptive optics, Phase conjugation, Atmospheric turbulence Synthetic beacon, Laser guide star.

  11. How well does the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification predict the site and size of the infarct on brain imaging?

    PubMed Central

    Mead, G; Lewis, S; Wardlaw, J; Dennis, M; Warlow, C

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification is a simple clinical scheme for subdividing first ever acute stroke. Several small studies have shown that when an infarct is visible on CT or MRI, the classification predicts its site in about three quarters of patients. The aim was to further investigate this relation in a much larger cohort of patients in hospital with ischaemic stroke.
METHODS—Between 1994 and 1997, inpatients and outpatients with ischaemic stroke were assessed by one of several stroke physicians who noted the OCSP classification. A neuroradiologist classified the site and extent of recent infarction on CT or MRI.
RESULTS—Of 1012 patients with ischaemic stroke, 655 (65%) had recent visible infarcts. These radiological lesions were appropriate to the clinical classification in 69/87 (79%) patients with a total anterior circulation syndrome, 213/298 (71%) with a partial anterior circulation syndrome, 105/144 (73%) with a lacunar syndrome, and 105/126 (83%) with a posterior circulation syndrome. Overall, 75% of patients with visible infarcts were correctly classified clinically. If patients without a visible infarct did have an appropriate lesion in the brain (best case), the classification would have correctly predicted its site and size in 849/1012 (84%) patients, compared with only 492/1012 (49%) in the worst case scenario.
CONCLUSION—The OCSP classification predicted the site of infarct in three quarters of patients. When an infarct is visible on brain imaging, the site of the infarct should guide the use of further investigations, but if an infarct is not seen, the OCSP classification could be used to predict its likely size and site.

 PMID:10766882

  12. Constructing Predictive Estimates for Worker Exposure to Radioactivity During Decommissioning: Analysis of Completed Decommissioning Projects - Master Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Dettmers, Dana Lee; Eide, Steven Arvid

    2002-10-01

    An analysis of completed decommissioning projects is used to construct predictive estimates for worker exposure to radioactivity during decommissioning activities. The preferred organizational method for the completed decommissioning project data is to divide the data by type of facility, whether decommissioning was performed on part of the facility or the complete facility, and the level of radiation within the facility prior to decommissioning (low, medium, or high). Additional data analysis shows that there is not a downward trend in worker exposure data over time. Also, the use of a standard estimate for worker exposure to radioactivity may be a best estimate for low complete storage, high partial storage, and medium reactor facilities; a conservative estimate for some low level of facility radiation facilities (reactor complete, research complete, pits/ponds, other), medium partial process facilities, and high complete research facilities; and an underestimate for the remaining facilities. Limited data are available to compare different decommissioning alternatives, so the available data are reported and no conclusions can been drawn. It is recommended that all DOE sites and the NRC use a similar method to document worker hours, worker exposure to radiation (person-rem), and standard industrial accidents, injuries, and deaths for all completed decommissioning activities.

  13. Predicting the spatial extent of injection-induced zones of enhanced permeability at the Northwest Geysers EGS Demonstration Project

    SciTech Connect

    Rutqvist, J.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Dobson, P.F.

    2010-02-01

    We present the results of coupled thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical (THM) modeling of a proposed stimulation injection associated with an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project at the northwest part of The Geysers geothermal field, California. The project aims at creating an EGS by directly and systematically injecting cool water at relatively low pressure into a known High Temperature (about 280 to 350 C) Zone (HTZ) located under the conventional (240 C) steam reservoir at depths below 3 km. Accurate micro-earthquake monitoring from the start of the injection will be used as a tool for tracking the development of the EGS. We first analyzed historic injection and micro-earthquake data from an injection well (Aidlin 11), located about 3 miles to the west of the new EGS demonstration area. Thereafter, we used the same modeling approach to predict the likely extent of the zone of enhanced permeability for a proposed initial injection in two wells (Prati State 31 and Prati 32) at the new EGS demonstration area. Our modeling indicates that the proposed injection scheme will provide additional steam production in the area by creating a zone of permeability enhancement extending about 0.5 km from each injection well which will connect to the overlying conventional steam reservoir.

  14. Prediction of fungicidal activities of rice blast disease based on least-squares support vector machines and project pursuit regression.

    PubMed

    Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Hu, Zhide; Yao, Xiaojun; Zhang, Xiaoyun

    2008-11-26

    Three machine learning methods, genetic algorithm-multilinear regression (GA-MLR), least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and project pursuit regression (PPR), were used to investigate the relationship between thiazoline derivatives and their fungicidal activities against the rice blast disease. The GA-MLR method was used to select the most appropriate molecular descriptors from a large set of descriptors, which were only calculated from molecular structures, and develop a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model at the same time. On the basis of the selected descriptors, the other two more accurate models (LS-SVM and PPR) were built. Both the linear and nonlinear modes gave good prediction results, but the nonlinear models afforded better prediction ability, which meant that the LS-SVM and PPR methods could simulate the relationship between the structural descriptors and fungicidal activities more accurately. The results show that the nonlinear methods (LS-SVM and PPR) could be used as good modeling tools for the study of rice blast. Moreover, this study provides a new and simple but efficient approach, which should facilitate the design and development of new compounds to resist the rice blast disease.

  15. Palomar project: predicting school renouncing dropouts, using the artificial neural networks as a support for educational policy decisions.

    PubMed

    Carbone, V; Piras, G

    1998-02-01

    The "Palomar" project confronts two problem situations that are partly independent and partly connected to the Italian schooling system: unstable participation in school such as drop out and educational guidance. Our concern is that of a set of phenomena which consists of ceasing compulsory education, repetition of a year at school, school "drop outs", irregular compulsory attendance and delays in the course of studies. The "Palomar" project is designed to offer educators and administrators who want to effectively intervene with these complex problems to furnish school guidance services as an instrument able to: 1. Predict: creating a system able to predict in advance (not in a "cause-effect" way but as an approximation): a) which students are at "risk" for school destabilization or failure; b) what are the prototypical characteristics of these students; c) which students among those studied are more likely to "destabilize" or fail in school; in which course of study does each student have the greatest chance of success; d) which, among the variables studied and appropriately weighted for each student, will predict the successful grade, analyzed for each possible course of studies. 2. Optimize: selecting and focusing on a student on the basis of the information given. It is possible: a) to point out which personal factors (relational, familial, student, disciplinary, economical) need to be reinforced in order to improve the school performances of each selected student, both to prevent or limit "dropping out" desertion or failure and to raise the performances in the chosen school course as much as possible; b) on the basis of what was mentioned above, to simulate the possible support measures to increase the efficacy of the considered intervention; c) to choose for each student the appropriate intervention strategy capable of obtaining the maximum result and the maximum efficacy in the given conditions. 3. Verify: when the strategy of intervention has been decided

  16. The eTOX data-sharing project to advance in silico drug-induced toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-11-14

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage.

  17. Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Erin S.; Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Wu, Joan Q.; Boll, Jan

    2016-02-01

    Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to forested watersheds, we developed and assessed new approaches for simulating streamflow and sediment transport from large watersheds using WEPP. We created specific algorithms to spatially distribute soil, climate, and management input files for all the subwatersheds within the basin. The model enhancements were tested on five geologically and climatically diverse watersheds in the Lake Tahoe basin, USA. The model was run with minimal calibration to assess WEPP's ability as a physically-based model to predict streamflow and sediment delivery. The performance of the model was examined against 17 years of observed snow water equivalent depth, streamflow, and sediment load data. Only region-wide baseflow recession parameters related to the geology of the basin were calibrated with observed streamflow data. Close agreement between simulated and observed snow water equivalent, streamflow, and the distribution of fine (<20 μm) and coarse (>20 μm) sediments was achieved at each of the major watersheds located in the high-precipitation regions of the basin. Sediment load was adequately simulated in the drier watersheds; however, annual streamflow was overestimated. With the exception of the drier eastern region, the model demonstrated no loss in accuracy when applied without calibration to multiple watersheds across Lake Tahoe basin demonstrating the utility of the model as a management tool in gauged and ungauged basins.

  18. The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification system predicts clinical outcomes following intravenous thrombolysis: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yuling; Wang, Anxin; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Chunxue; Liu, Liping; Zheng, Huaguang; Wang, Yongjun; Cao, Yibin; Wang, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    Background The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification system is a simple stroke classification system that can be used to predict clinical outcomes. In this study, we compare the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis in Chinese stroke patients categorized using the OCSP classification system. Patients and methods We collected data from the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitoring of Acute Ischemic Stroke in China registry. A total of 1,115 patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase within 4.5 hours of stroke onset were included. Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH), mortality, and 90-day functional outcomes were compared between the stroke patients with different stroke subtypes. Results Of the 1,115 patients included in the cohort, 197 (17.67%) were classified with total anterior circulation infarct (TACI), 700 (62.78%) with partial anterior circulation infarct, 153 (13.72%) with posterior circulation infarct, and 65 (5.83%) with lacunar infarct. After multivariable adjustment, compared to the patients with non-TACI, those with TACI had a significantly increased risk of SICH (odds ratio [OR] 8.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.84–27.25, P<0.001), higher mortality (OR 5.24; 95% CI 3.19–8.62; P<0.001), and poor functional independence (OR 0.38; 95% CI 0.26–0.56; P<0.001) at 3-month follow-up. Conclusion After thrombolysis, the patients with TACI exhibited greater SICH, a higher mortality rate, and worse 3-month clinical outcomes compared with the patients with non-TACI. The OCSP classification system may help clinicians predict the safety and efficacy of thrombolysis. PMID:27418829

  19. Summary of ground motion prediction results for Nevada Test Site underground nuclear explosions related to the Yucca Mountain project

    SciTech Connect

    Walck, M.C.

    1996-10-01

    This report summarizes available data on ground motions from underground nuclear explosions recorded on and near the Nevada Test Site, with emphasis on the ground motions recorded at stations on Yucca Mountain, the site of a potential high-level radioactive waste repository. Sandia National Laboratories, through the Weapons Test Seismic Investigations project, collected and analyzed ground motion data from NTS explosions over a 14-year period, from 1977 through 1990. By combining these data with available data from earlier, larger explosions, prediction equations for several ground motion parameters have been developed for the Test Site area for underground nuclear explosion sources. Also presented are available analyses of the relationship between surface and downhole motions and spectra and relevant crustal velocity structure information for Yucca Mountain derived from the explosion data. The data and associated analyses demonstrate that ground motions at Yucca Mountain from nuclear tests have been at levels lower than would be expected from moderate to large earthquakes in the region; thus nuclear explosions, while located relatively close, would not control seismic design criteria for the potential repository.

  20. Prediction of radiographic progression in synovitis-positive joints on maximum intensity projection of magnetic resonance imaging in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Akai, Takanori; Taniguchi, Daigo; Oda, Ryo; Asada, Maki; Toyama, Shogo; Tokunaga, Daisaku; Seno, Takahiro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Fujii, Yosuke; Ito, Hirotoshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu

    2016-04-01

    Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with maximum intensity projection (MRI-MIP) is an easy, useful imaging method to evaluate synovitis in rheumatoid hands. However, the prognosis of synovitis-positive joints on MRI-MIP has not been clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between synovitis visualized by MRI-MIP and joint destruction on X-rays in rheumatoid hands. The wrists, metacarpophalangeal (MP) joints, and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of both hands (500 joints in total) were evaluated in 25 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Synovitis was scored from grade 0 to 2 on the MRI-MIP images. The Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade were used for radiographic evaluation. The relationships between the MIP score and the progression of radiographic scores and between the MIP score and bone marrow edema on MRI were analyzed using the trend test. As the MIP score increased, the Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade progressed severely. The rate of bone marrow edema-positive joints also increased with higher MIP scores. MRI-MIP imaging of RA hands is a clinically useful method that allows semi-quantitative evaluation of synovitis with ease and can be used to predict joint destruction.

  1. Comparison of models for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community composition in the receiving water system of an inter-basin water transfer project.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Qinghui; Liu, Yi; Zhao, Hongtao; Sun, Mingdong; Li, Xuyong

    2017-04-01

    Inter-basin water transfer projects might cause complex hydro-chemical and biological variation in the receiving aquatic ecosystems. Whether machine learning models can be used to predict changes in phytoplankton community composition caused by water transfer projects have rarely been studied. In the present study, we used machine learning models to predict the total algal cell densities and changes in phytoplankton community composition in Miyun reservoir caused by the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). The model performances of four machine learning models, including regression trees (RT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) were evaluated and the best model was selected for further prediction. The results showed that the predictive accuracies (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the models were RF (0.974), ANN (0.951), SVM (0.860), and RT (0.817) in the training step and RF (0.806), ANN (0.734), SVM (0.730), and RT (0.692) in the testing step. Therefore, the RF model was the best method for estimating total algal cell densities. Furthermore, the predicted accuracies of the RF model for dominant phytoplankton phyla (Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Bacillariophyta) in Miyun reservoir ranged from 0.824 to 0.869 in the testing step. The predicted proportions with water transfer of the different phytoplankton phyla ranged from -8.88% to 9.93%, and the predicted dominant phyla with water transfer in each season remained unchanged compared to the phytoplankton succession without water transfer. The results of the present study provide a useful tool for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community caused by water transfer. The method is transferrable to other locations via establishment of models with relevant data to a particular area. Our findings help better understanding the possible changes in aquatic ecosystems influenced by inter-basin water transfer.

  2. The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

    PubMed

    Prieto, P; Kinsner-Ovaskainen, A; Stanzel, S; Albella, B; Artursson, P; Campillo, N; Cecchelli, R; Cerrato, L; Díaz, L; Di Consiglio, E; Guerra, A; Gombau, L; Herrera, G; Honegger, P; Landry, C; O'Connor, J E; Páez, J A; Quintas, G; Svensson, R; Turco, L; Zurich, M G; Zurbano, M J; Kopp-Schneider, A

    2013-06-01

    ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

  3. Genome3D: a UK collaborative project to annotate genomic sequences with predicted 3D structures based on SCOP and CATH domains

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Tony E.; Sillitoe, Ian; Andreeva, Antonina; Blundell, Tom L.; Buchan, Daniel W.A.; Chothia, Cyrus; Cuff, Alison; Dana, Jose M.; Filippis, Ioannis; Gough, Julian; Hunter, Sarah; Jones, David T.; Kelley, Lawrence A.; Kleywegt, Gerard J.; Minneci, Federico; Mitchell, Alex; Murzin, Alexey G.; Ochoa-Montaño, Bernardo; Rackham, Owen J. L.; Smith, James; Sternberg, Michael J. E.; Velankar, Sameer; Yeats, Corin; Orengo, Christine

    2013-01-01

    Genome3D, available at http://www.genome3d.eu, is a new collaborative project that integrates UK-based structural resources to provide a unique perspective on sequence–structure–function relationships. Leading structure prediction resources (DomSerf, FUGUE, Gene3D, pDomTHREADER, Phyre and SUPERFAMILY) provide annotations for UniProt sequences to indicate the locations of structural domains (structural annotations) and their 3D structures (structural models). Structural annotations and 3D model predictions are currently available for three model genomes (Homo sapiens, E. coli and baker’s yeast), and the project will extend to other genomes in the near future. As these resources exploit different strategies for predicting structures, the main aim of Genome3D is to enable comparisons between all the resources so that biologists can see where predictions agree and are therefore more trusted. Furthermore, as these methods differ in whether they build their predictions using CATH or SCOP, Genome3D also contains the first official mapping between these two databases. This has identified pairs of similar superfamilies from the two resources at various degrees of consensus (532 bronze pairs, 527 silver pairs and 370 gold pairs). PMID:23203986

  4. Next generation paradigm for urban pluvial flood modelling, prediction, management and vulnerability reduction - Interaction between RainGain and Blue Green Dream projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maksimovic, C.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of climate change and increasing urbanisation call for a new paradigm for efficient planning, management and retrofitting of urban developments to increase resilience to climate change and to maximize ecosystem services. Improved management of urban floods from all sources in required. Time scale for well documented fluvial and coastal floods allows for timely response but surface (pluvial) flooding caused by intense local storms had not been given appropriate attention, Pitt Review (UK). Urban surface floods predictions require fine scale data and model resolutions. They have to be tackled locally by combining central inputs (meteorological services) with the efforts of the local entities. Although significant breakthrough in modelling of pluvial flooding was made there is a need to further enhance short term prediction of both rainfall and surface flooding. These issues are dealt with in the EU Iterreg project Rain Gain (RG). Breakthrough in urban flood mitigation can only be achieved by combined effects of advanced planning design, construction and management of urban water (blue) assets in interaction with urban vegetated areas' (green) assets. Changes in design and operation of blue and green assets, currently operating as two separate systems, is urgently required. Gaps in knowledge and technology will be introduced by EIT's Climate-KIC Blue Green Dream (BGD) project. The RG and BGD projects provide synergy of the "decoupled" blue and green systems to enhance multiple benefits to: urban amenity, flood management, heat island, biodiversity, resilience to drought thus energy requirements, thus increased quality of urban life at lower costs. Urban pluvial flood management will address two priority areas: Short Term rainfall Forecast and Short term flood surface forecast. Spatial resolution of short term rainfall forecast below 0.5 km2 and lead time of a few hours are needed. Improvements are achievable by combining data sources of raingauge networks

  5. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  6. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  7. Development of a Stochastic Inversion Tool To Optimize Agreement Between The Observed And Predicted Seismic Response To CO2 Injection/Migration in the Weyburn-Midale Project

    SciTech Connect

    Ramirez, A L; Hao, Y; White, D; Carle, S; Dyer, K; Yang, X; Mcnab, W; Foxall, W; Johnson, J

    2009-12-02

    During Phase 1 of the Weyburn Project (2000-2004), 4D reflection seismic data were used to map CO{sub 2} migration within the Midale reservoir, while an extensive fluid sampling program documented the geochemical evolution triggered by CO{sub 2}-brine-oil-mineral interactions. The aim of this task (3b.11) is to exploit these existing seismic and geochemical data sets, augmented by CO{sub 2}/H{sub 2}O injection and HC/H{sub 2}O production data toward optimizing the reservoir model and thereby improving site characterization and dependent predictions of long-term CO{sub 2} storage in the Weyburn-Midale reservoir. Our initial project activities have concentrated on developing a stochastic inversion method that will identify reservoir models that optimize agreement between the observed and predicted seismic response. This report describes the technical approach we have followed, the data that supports it, and associated implementation activities. The report fulfills deliverable D1 in the project's statement of work. Future deliverables will describe the development of the stochastic inversion tool that uses geochemical data to optimize the reservoir model.

  8. Environmental Impact Prediction Of Road Construction Projects On Natural Habitats Using Remotely Sensed Images(Case Study: Qazvin-Rasht Highway, Iran)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yazdankhah, Alireza; Gharebaghi, Amin; Saberi, Nastaran

    2010-05-01

    One of the most challenging parts of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is to identify and evaluate severity and extent of project's destructive affects on environment. During this study a new method has been developed to predict environmental impact. For this purpose, remotely sensed images in Qazvin-Rasht Highway area, Iran during years of 2004-2008 were used. Although natural habitats including Fauna and Flora are exposed to destructive affects in different various aspects, natural vegetation cover extent and density was chosen as a main environmental element. Changes in extent and density of vegetation cover can be calculated by change detection algorithms between selected images. In this study maps of vegetation cover in Iran are produced using Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images with spatial resolution of 15m. Vegetation cover obtained from NDVI index is classified in different species by classification methods. The next step is calculation of changes between pixels of images via existing change detection algorithms. Regression models were developed to predict the project activities impacts on vegetation. Forecast model of environmental effects on Flora can be so helpful in Environmental Impact Assessment of road construction projects especially in variants selection phase. It provides useful information for decision makers to select less harmful corridor to construct.

  9. Project TALENT Five-Year Follow-Up Studies, Predicting Development of Young Adults. Interim Report 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooley, William W.; Lohnes, Paul R.

    The primary purpose of this monograph is to describe the relationship between adolescent personality and the educational and vocational development of young adults, criteria for the latter being developed from the Project TALENT follow-up studies. This relationship seeking is set in a context of career development theory and a concern for guidance…

  10. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  11. Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

    2007-10-01

    We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

  12. Can Online Discussion Participation Predict Group Project Performance? Investigating the Roles of Linguistic Features and Participation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Jaebong; Kim, Jihie

    2014-01-01

    Although many college courses adopt online tools such as Q&A online discussion boards, there is no easy way to measure or evaluate their effect on learning. As a part of supporting instructional assessment of online discussions, we investigate a predictive relation between characteristics of discussion contributions and student performance.…

  13. Validity of a Battery of Experimental Tests in Predicting Performance of Navy Project 100,000 Personnel

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-09-01

    WORDS (Countinue an revwo*o side iI noco.. and Idenitify by’ Nock rnhmber) Project 100,000 Personnel Retention Mental Group IVs Culture Fair Tests ...34 culture fair " aptitude tests that would permit the Navy to identify potentially successful recruits from those who scored low on conventional tests ...of the wide variety of " culture fair " tests evaluated, it is unlikely that paper- and-pencil tests can be found that will identify previously

  14. Drug biokinetic and toxicity assessments in rat and human primary hepatocytes and HepaRG cells within the EU-funded Predict-IV project.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Stefan O; Guillouzo, André; Hewitt, Philip G; Richert, Lysiane

    2015-12-25

    The overall aim of Predict-IV (EU-funded collaborative project #202222) was to develop improved testing strategies for drug safety in the late discovery phase. One major focus was the prediction of hepatotoxicity as liver remains one of the major organ leading to failure in drug development, drug withdrawal and has a poor predictivity from animal experiments. In this overview we describe the use and applicability of the three cell models employed, i.e., primary rat hepatocytes, primary human hepatocytes and the human HepaRG cell line, using four model compounds, chlorpromazine, ibuprofen, cyclosporine A and amiodarone. This overview described the data generated on mode of action of liver toxicity after long-term repeat-dosing. Moreover we have quantified parent compound and its distribution in various in vitro compartments, which allowed us to develop biokinetic models where we could derive real exposure concentrations in vitro. In conclusion, the complex data set enables quantitative measurements that proved the concept that we can define human relevant free and toxic exposure levels in vitro. Further compounds have to be analyzed in a broader concentration range to fully exploit these promising results for improved prediction of hepatotoxicity and hazard assessment for humans.

  15. Project: "Project!"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine

    2007-01-01

    In November 2006, the editors of "Campus Technology" launched their first-ever High-Resolution Projection Study, to find out if the latest in projector technology could really make a significant difference in teaching, learning, and educational innovation on US campuses. The author and her colleagues asked campus educators,…

  16. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  17. Operational strategy for soil concentration predictions of strontium/yttrium-90 and cesium-137 in surface soil at the West Valley Demonstration Project site

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, J.A.

    1995-06-05

    There are difficulties associated with the assessment of the interpretation of field measurements, determination of guideline protocols and control and disposal of low level radioactive contaminated soil in the environmental health physics field. Questions are raised among scientists and in public forums concerning the necessity and high costs of large area soil remediation versus the risks of low-dose radiation health effects. As a result, accurate soil activity assessments become imperative in decontamination situations. The West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP), a US Department of Energy facility located in West Valley, New York is managed and operated by West Valley Nuclear Services Co., Inc. (WVNS). WVNS has identified contaminated on-site soil areas with a mixed variety of radionuclides (primarily fission product). Through the use of data obtained from a previous project performed during the summer of 1994 entitled ``Field Survey Correlation and Instrumentation Response for an In Situ Soil Measurement Program`` (Myers), the WVDP offers a unique research opportunity to investigate the possibility of soil concentration predictions based on exposure or count rate responses returned from a survey detector probe. In this study, correlations are developed between laboratory measured soil beta activity and survey probe response for the purposes of determining the optimal detector for field use and using these correlations to establish predictability of soil activity levels.

  18. Final report for LDRD project {open_quotes}A new approach to protein function and structure prediction{close_quotes}

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, C.A.

    1997-03-01

    This report describes the research performed under the laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) grant {open_quotes}A new approach to protein function and structure prediction{close_quotes}, funded FY94-6. We describe the goals of the research, motivate and list our improvements to the state of the art in multiple sequence alignment and phylogeny (evolutionary tree) construction, but leave technical details to the six publications resulting from this work. At least three algorithms for phylogeny construction or tree consensus have been implemented and used by researchers outside of Sandia.

  19. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and prediction of atrial fibrillation and stroke: The Malmö Preventive Project.

    PubMed

    Berntsson, John; Smith, J Gustav; Nilsson, Peter M; Hedblad, Bo; Melander, Olle; Engström, Gunnar

    2017-01-01

    Background The increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation and novel therapeutic tools to prevent cardioembolic stroke has increased the need for risk markers. Objectives This study explored the relationship between the midregional sequence of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) levels with the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke, and whether measurement of MR-proANP improves the prediction of these outcomes. Methods MR-proANP was measured in fasting blood samples of 5130 subjects (69% men, mean age 69.2 ± 6.2 years) without a history of atrial fibrillation or stroke from the general population. The incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke was monitored over a median follow-up of 5.6 years. C-statistics and net reclassification improvement was used to assess the predictive ability of MR-proANP in addition to conventional risk factors. Results Log-normalized MR-proANP was significantly associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation ( n = 362; hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI) per 1 standard deviation (SD) 2.05, 1.86-2.27) and stroke from all causes ( n = 195; HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.12-1.50). The HR for stroke events related to atrial fibrillation was 1.79 (95% CI 1.25-2.58) per 1 SD. MR-proANP significantly improved the prediction of atrial fibrillation when added to a risk score of conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.69 vs. 0.75), mainly by down-classifying subjects who did not develop atrial fibrillation. A smaller improvement in predictive ability was observed for stroke (C statistic 0.66 vs. 0.68). Conclusion High plasma levels of MR-proANP are associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke in the middle-aged and elderly population. MR-proANP may be useful to identify individuals with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation.

  20. Evaluation and development of hydrological parameterisations for the atmosphere, ocean and land surface coupled model developed by the UK Environmental Prediction (UKEP) Prototype project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto; Blyth, Eleanor; Ashton, Heather; Lewis, Huw

    2016-04-01

    The UKEP project brings together atmosphere, ocean and land surface models and scientist to build a coupled prediction system for the UK at 1.5 km scale. JULES (Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator) is the land surface model that generates runoff and simulates soil hydrology within the coupled prediction system. Here we present an evaluation of JULES performance at producing river flow for 13 selected catchments in Great Britain, where we use daily river flow observations at the catchment outlets. The evaluation is based on the Nush-Sutcliffe metric and bias. Results suggest that the inclusion of a new linear topographic slope dependency in the S0 parameter of the PDM (Probability Distributed Model, scheme that generates saturation excess runoff at the land surface when the soil water storage reaches S0), improves results for all catchments, constraining the surface runoff production for flatter catchments during rainy episodes. The new hydrological configuration developed offline using the JULES model has been implemented in the coupled prediction system for an intense winter storm case study. We found significant changes in accumulated runoff and total column soil moisture, and results consistent with the offline experiments with an increase in surface runoff on the high slopes of Scotland.

  1. Performance prediction of mechanical excavators from linear cutter tests on Yucca Mountain welded tuffs; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Gertsch, R.; Ozdemir, L.

    1992-09-01

    The performances of mechanical excavators are predicted for excavations in welded tuff. Emphasis is given to tunnel boring machine evaluations based on linear cutting machine test data obtained on samples of Topopah Spring welded tuff. The tests involve measurement of forces as cutters are applied to the rock surface at certain spacing and penetrations. Two disc and two point-attack cutters representing currently available technology are thus evaluated. The performance predictions based on these direct experimental measurements are believed to be more accurate than any previous values for mechanical excavation of welded tuff. The calculations of performance are predicated on minimizing the amount of energy required to excavate the welded tuff. Specific energy decreases with increasing spacing and penetration, and reaches its lowest at the widest spacing and deepest penetration used in this test program. Using the force, spacing, and penetration data from this experimental program, the thrust, torque, power, and rate of penetration are calculated for several types of mechanical excavators. The results of this study show that the candidate excavators will require higher torque and power than heretofore estimated.

  2. Prediction of Inhibitory Activity of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Inhibitors Using Grid Search-Projection Pursuit Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Du, Hongying; Hu, Zhide; Bazzoli, Andrea; Zhang, Yang

    2011-01-01

    The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) protein tyrosine kinase (PTK) is an important protein target for anti-tumor drug discovery. To identify potential EGFR inhibitors, we conducted a quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) study on the inhibitory activity of a series of quinazoline derivatives against EGFR tyrosine kinase. Two 2D-QSAR models were developed based on the best multi-linear regression (BMLR) and grid-search assisted projection pursuit regression (GS-PPR) methods. The results demonstrate that the inhibitory activity of quinazoline derivatives is strongly correlated with their polarizability, activation energy, mass distribution, connectivity, and branching information. Although the present investigation focused on EGFR, the approach provides a general avenue in the structure-based drug development of different protein receptor inhibitors. PMID:21811593

  3. USGS "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" Project: Crowd-Tagging Aerial Photographs to Improve Coastal Change Prediction Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S. B.; Poore, B. S.; Plant, N. G.; Stockdon, H. F.; Morgan, K.; Snell, R.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring oblique aerial photographs of the coast before and after major storms since 1995 and has amassed a database of over 140,000 photographs of the Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific coasts. USGS coastal scientists use these photographs to document and characterize coastal change caused by storms. The images can also be used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models of coastal erosion. However, the USGS does not have the personnel to manually analyze all of the photographs taken after a storm. Also, computers cannot yet automatically identify damages and geomorphic changes to the coast from the oblique aerial photographs. There is a high public interest in accessing the limited number of pre- and post-storm photographic pairs the USGS is currently able to share. Recent federal policies that encourage open data and open innovation initiatives have resulted in many federal agencies developing new ways of using citizen science and crowdsourcing techniques to share data and collaborate with the public to accomplish large tasks. The USGS launched a crowdsourcing application in June 2014 called "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/icoast) to allow citizens to help USGS scientists identify changes to the coast by comparing USGS aerial photographs taken before and after storms, and then selecting pre-defined tags like "dune scarp" and "sand on road." The tags are accompanied by text definitions and pictorial examples of these coastal morphology terms and serve to informally and passively educate users about coastal hazards. The iCoast application facilitates greater citizen awareness of coastal change and is an educational resource for teachers and students interested in learning about coastal vulnerability. We expect that the citizen observations from iCoast will assist with probabilistic model development to produce more accurate predictions of coastal vulnerability.

  4. Incorporation of a genetic factor into an epidemiologic model for prediction of individual risk of lung cancer: the Liverpool Lung Project.

    PubMed

    Raji, Olaide Y; Agbaje, Olorunsola F; Duffy, Stephen W; Cassidy, Adrian; Field, John K

    2010-05-01

    The Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) has previously developed a risk model for prediction of 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer based on five epidemiologic risk factors. SEZ6L, a Met430IIe polymorphic variant found on 22q12.2 region, has been previously linked with an increased risk of lung cancer in a case-control population. In this article, we quantify the improvement in risk prediction with addition of SEZ6L to the LLP risk model. Data from 388 LLP subjects genotyped for SEZ6L single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were combined with epidemiologic risk factors. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to predict 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer with and without this SNP. The improvement in the model associated with the SEZ6L SNP was assessed through pairwise comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the net reclassification improvements (NRI). The extended model showed better calibration compared with the baseline model. There was a statistically significant modest increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when SEZ6L was added into the baseline model. The NRI also revealed a statistically significant improvement of around 12% for the extended model; this improvement was better for subjects classified into the two intermediate-risk categories by the baseline model (NRI, 27%). Our results suggest that the addition of SEZ6L improved the performance of the LLP risk model, particularly for subjects whose initial absolute risks were unable to discriminate into "low-risk" or "high-risk" group. This work shows an approach to incorporate genetic biomarkers in risk models for predicting an individual's lung cancer risk.

  5. Tailoring dam structures to water quality predictions in new reservoir projects: assisting decision-making using numerical modeling.

    PubMed

    Marcé, Rafael; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; García-Barcina, José Ma; Armengol, Joan

    2010-06-01

    Selection of reservoir location, the floodable basin forest handling, and the design of dam structures devoted to water supply (e.g. water outlets) constitute relevant features which strongly determine water quality and frequently demand management strategies to be adopted. Although these crucial aspects should be carefully examined during dam design before construction, currently the development of ad hoc limnological studies tailoring dam location and dam structures to the water quality characteristics expected in the future reservoir is not typical practice. In this study, we use numerical simulation to assist on the design of a new dam project in Spain with the aim of maximizing the quality of the water supplied by the future reservoir. First, we ran a well-known coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamic numerical model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) to simulate the potential development of anoxic layers in the future reservoir. Then, we generated several scenarios corresponding to different potential hydraulic conditions and outlet configurations. Second, we built a simplified numerical model to simulate the development of the hypolimnetic oxygen content during the maturation stage after the first reservoir filling, taking into consideration the degradation of the terrestrial organic matter flooded and the adoption of different forest handling scenarios. Results are discussed in terms of reservoir design and water quality management. The combination of hypolimnetic withdrawal from two deep outlets and the removal of all the valuable terrestrial vegetal biomass before flooding resulted in the best water quality scenario.

  6. REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS VIA HISTORY MATCHING OF CO2 MIGRATION AND REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING OF CO2 FATE AT THE SLEIPNER PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Chen

    2015-03-31

    An important question for the Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utility program is “can we adequately predict the CO2 plume migration?” For tracking CO2 plume development, the Sleipner project in the Norwegian North Sea provides more time-lapse seismic monitoring data than any other sites, but significant uncertainties still exist for some of the reservoir parameters. In Part I, we assessed model uncertainties by applying two multi-phase compositional simulators to the Sleipner Benchmark model for the uppermost layer (Layer 9) of the Utsira Sand and calibrated our model against the time-lapsed seismic monitoring data for the site from 1999 to 2010. Approximate match with the observed plume was achieved by introducing lateral permeability anisotropy, adding CH4 into the CO2 stream, and adjusting the reservoir temperatures. Model-predicted gas saturation, CO2 accumulation thickness, and CO2 solubility in brine—none were used as calibration metrics—were all comparable with the interpretations of the seismic data in the literature. In Part II & III, we evaluated the uncertainties of predicted long-term CO2 fate up to 10,000 years, due to uncertain reaction kinetics. Under four scenarios of the kinetic rate laws, the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 partitioning into the four trapping mechanisms (hydrodynamic/structural, solubility, residual/capillary, and mineral) was simulated with ToughReact, taking into account the CO2-brine-rock reactions and the multi-phase reactive flow and mass transport. Modeling results show that different rate laws for mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions resulted in different predicted amounts of trapped CO2 by carbonate minerals, with scenarios of the conventional linear rate law for feldspar dissolution having twice as much mineral trapping (21% of the injected CO2) as scenarios with a Burch-type or Alekseyev et al.–type rate law for feldspar dissolution (11%). So far, most reactive transport modeling (RTM) studies for

  7. Projecting Risk: The Importance of the HCR-20 Risk Management Scale in Predicting Outcomes with Forensic Patients.

    PubMed

    Vitacco, Michael J; Tabernik, Holly E; Zavodny, Denis; Bailey, Karen; Waggoner, Christina

    2016-03-01

    The present study evaluates data from 116 forensic inpatients who underwent violent risk assessments, which included the Historical, Clinical, Risk-20 (HCR-20), from 2006 to 2013 as part of an opportunity to be conditionally discharged from state forensic facilities. Of the 116 inpatients, 58 were never released, 39 were released and returned to a hospital, and 19 were released and never returned. Results from analyses of variance and multinomial logistic regression found the risk management (R) scale of the HCR-20 successfully predicted group membership in that higher scores were associated with a greater likelihood of not being released from a forensic facility or returning to a forensic facility after release. The results of this study indicate that clinicians should consider community-based risk variables when evaluating forensic patients for potential return to the community. This research demonstrates that clinicians failing to fully consider dynamic risk factors associated with community integration jeopardize the quality and thoroughness of their violence risk assessment with regards to readiness for release. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Operation Jangle Project 2. 0 - predicted scaling of radiological effects to operational weapons Report for October-November 1951

    SciTech Connect

    Schorr, M.G.; Gilfillan, E.S.

    1984-10-31

    This report predicts the radiological contamination that may result from fission bombs detonated near the surface of the earth and underground. The radiation received is primarily a result of the initial radiation from the early fission products and fallout of radioactive material from the high cloud. The distribution of the fallout is determined by constructing a mathematical model and adjusting the parameters of the model to fit actual Jangle data. The model is then scaled up to larger weapons by scaling these parameters in conformity with existing formulations of nuclear-explosion cloud dynamics. The initial radiation is calculated in a straightforward manner. The resulting dose and dose-rate contours are given, as are the areas enclosed by given contours. It is concluded that the base surge at the Jangle underground nuclear explosion did not contain an appreciable amount of radioactive material, and this will probably also be true for operational weapons except at very great explosion depths. The cratering action of explosives is discussed, and it is found that atomic bombs exploded near the earth surface should give crater radii which sale as the one-sixth power of the energy release rather than the one-third power scaling applicable to high explosives.

  9. Factors that predict financial sustainability of community coalitions: five years of findings from the PROSPER partnership project.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Mark T; Feinberg, Mark E; Johnson, Lesley E; Perkins, Daniel F; Welsh, Janet A; Spoth, Richard L

    2015-01-01

    This study is a longitudinal investigation of the Promoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience (PROSPER) partnership model designed to evaluate the level of sustainability funding by community prevention teams, including which factors impact teams' generation of sustainable funding. Community teams were responsible for choosing, implementing with quality, and sustaining evidence-based programs (EBPs) intended to reduce substance misuse and promote positive youth and family development. Fourteen US rural communities and small towns were studied. Data were collected from PROSPER community team members (N = 164) and prevention coordinators (N = 10) over a 5-year period. Global and specific aspects of team functioning were assessed over six waves. Outcome measures were the total funds (cash and in-kind) raised to implement prevention programs. All 14 community teams were sustained for the first 5 years. However, there was substantial variability in the amount of funds raised, and these differences were predicted by earlier and concurrent team functioning and by team sustainability planning. Given the sufficient infrastructure and ongoing technical assistance provided by the PROSPER partnership model, local sustainability of EBPs is achievable.

  10. Pons to Posterior Cingulate Functional Projections Predict Affective Processing Changes in the Elderly Following Eight Weeks of Meditation Training.

    PubMed

    Shao, Robin; Keuper, Kati; Geng, Xiujuan; Lee, Tatia M C

    2016-08-01

    Evidence indicates meditation facilitates affective regulation and reduces negative affect. It also influences resting-state functional connectivity between affective networks and the posterior cingulate (PCC)/precuneus, regions critically implicated in self-referential processing. However, no longitudinal study employing active control group has examined the effect of meditation training on affective processing, PCC/precuneus connectivity, and their association. Here, we report that eight-week meditation, but not relaxation, training 'neutralized' affective processing of positive and negative stimuli in healthy elderly participants. Additionally, meditation versus relaxation training increased the positive connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and the pons, the direction of which was largely directed from the pons to the PCC/precuneus, as revealed by dynamic causal modeling. Further, changes in connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and pons predicted changes in affective processing after meditation training. These findings indicate meditation promotes self-referential affective regulation based on increased regulatory influence of the pons on PCC/precuneus, which new affective-processing strategy is employed across both resting state and when evaluating affective stimuli. Such insights have clinical implications on interventions on elderly individuals with affective disorders.

  11. Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in the main canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Cheng, Xi

    2014-11-01

    The middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRP) will divert water to Beijing Tuancheng Lake from Taocha in the Danjiangkou reservoir located in the Hubei province of China. The MRP is composed of a long canal and complex hydraulic structures and will transfer water in open channel areas to provide drinking water for Beijing, Shijiazhuang and other cities under extremely strict water quality requirements. A large number of vehicular accidents, occurred on the many highway bridges across the main canal would cause significant water pollution in the main canal. To ensure that water quality is maintained during the diversion process, the effects of pollutants on water quality due to sudden pollution accidents were simulated and analyzed in this paper. The MIKE11 HD module was used to calculate the hydraulic characteristics of the 42-km Xishi-to-Beijuma River channel of the MRP. Six types of hydraulic structures, including inverted siphons, gates, highway bridges, culverts and tunnels, were included in this model. Based on the hydrodynamic model, the MIKE11 AD module, which is one-dimensional advection dispersion model, was built for TP, NH3-N, CODMn and F. The validated results showed that the computed values agreed well with the measured values. In accordance with transportation data across the Dianbei Highway Bridge, the effects of traffic accidents on the bridge on water quality were analyzed. Based on simulated scenarios with three discharge rates (ranged from 12 m3/s to 17 m3/s, 40 m3/s, and 60 m3/s) and three pollution loading concentration levels (5 t, 10 t and 20 t) when trucks spill their contents (i.e., phosphate fertilizer, cyanide, oil and chromium solution) into the channel, emergency measures were proposed. Reasonable solutions to ensure the water quality with regard to the various types of pollutants were proposed, including treating polluted water, maintaining materials, and personnel reserves.

  12. Contact with Counter-Stereotypical Women Predicts Less Sexism, Less Rape Myth Acceptance, Less Intention to Rape (in Men) and Less Projected Enjoyment of Rape (in Women).

    PubMed

    Taschler, Miriam; West, Keon

    2017-01-01

    Intergroup contact-(positive) interactions with people from different social groups-is a widely researched and strongly supported prejudice-reducing mechanism shown to reduce prejudice against a wide variety of outgroups. However, no known previous research has investigated whether intergroup contact can also reduce sexism against women. Sexism has an array of negative outcomes. One of the most detrimental and violent ones is rape, which is both justified and downplayed by rape myth acceptance. We hypothesised that more frequent, higher quality contact with counter-stereotypical women would predict lower levels of sexism and thus less rape myth acceptance (in men) and less sexualised projected responses to rape (in women). Two studies using online surveys with community samples supported these hypotheses. In Study 1, 170 male participants who experienced more positive contact with counter-stereotypical women reported less intention to rape. Similarly, in Study 2, 280 female participants who experienced more positive contact with counter-stereotypical women reported less projected sexual arousal at the thought of being raped. Thus, the present research is the first known to show that contact could be a potential tool to combat sexism, rape myth acceptance, intentions to rape in men, and sexualisation of rape by women.

  13. Prediction of SSRI treatment response in major depression based on serotonin transporter interplay between median raphe nucleus and projection areas.

    PubMed

    Lanzenberger, Rupert; Kranz, Georg S; Haeusler, Daniela; Akimova, Elena; Savli, Markus; Hahn, Andreas; Mitterhauser, Markus; Spindelegger, Christoph; Philippe, Cecile; Fink, Martin; Wadsak, Wolfgang; Karanikas, Georgios; Kasper, Siegfried

    2012-11-01

    Recent mathematical models suggest restored serotonergic burst-firing to underlie the antidepressant effect of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), resulting from down-regulated serotonin transporters (SERT) in terminal regions. This mechanism possibly depends on the interregional balance between SERTs in the raphe nuclei and in terminal regions before treatment. To evaluate these hypotheses on a systems level in humans in vivo, we investigated SERT availability and occupancy longitudinally in patients with major depressive disorder using positron emission tomography (PET) and the radioligand [11C]DASB. Measurements were performed before and after a single oral dose, as well as after three weeks (mean 24.73±3.3 days) of continuous oral treatment with either escitalopram (10 mg/day) or citalopram (20 mg/day). Data were analyzed using voxel-wise linear regression and ANOVA to evaluate SERT binding, occupancy and binding ratios (SERT binding of the entire brain compared to SERT binding in the dorsal and median raphe nuclei) in relation to treatment outcome. Regression analysis revealed that treatment response was predicted by pre-treatment SERT binding ratios, i.e., SERT binding in key regions of depression including bilateral habenula, amygdala-hippocampus complex and subgenual cingulate cortex in relation to SERT binding in the median but not dorsal raphe nucleus (p<0.05 FDR-corrected). Similar results were observed in the direct comparison of responders and non-responders. Our data provide a first proof-of-concept for recent modeling studies and further underlie the importance of the habenula and subgenual cingulate cortex in the etiology of and recovery from major depression. These findings may indicate a promising molecular predictor of treatment response and stimulate new treatment approaches based on regional differences in SERT binding.

  14. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    PubMed

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a

  15. The PreViBOSS project: study the short term predictability of the visibility change during the Fog life cycle, from surface and satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, T.; Haeffelin, M.; Ramon, D.; Gomes, L.; Brunet, F.; Vrac, M.; Yiou, P.; Hello, G.; Petithomme, H.

    2010-07-01

    Fog prejudices major activities as transport and Earth observation, by critically reducing atmospheric visibility with no continuity in time and space. Fog is also an essential factor of air quality and climate as it modifies particle properties of the surface atmospheric layer. Complexity, diversity and the fine scale of processes make uncertain by current numerical weather prediction models, not only visibility diagnosis but also fog event prediction. Extensive measurements of atmospheric parameters are made on the SIRTA since 1997 to document physical processes over the atmospheric column, in the Paris suburb area, typical of an environment intermittently under oceanic influence and affected by urban and industrial pollution. The ParisFog field campaign hosted in SIRTA during 6-month in winter 2006-2007 resulted in the deployment of instrumentation specifically dedicated to study physical processes in the fog life cycle: thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical processes. Analysis of the measurements provided a preliminary climatology of the episodes of reduced visibility, chronology of processes was delivered by examining time series of measured parameters and a closure study was performed on optical and microphysical properties of particles (aerosols to droplets) during the life cycle of a radiative fog, providing the relative contribution of several particle groups to extinction in clear-sky conditions, in haze and in fog. PreViBOSS is a 3-year project scheduled to start this year. The aim is to improve the short term prediction of changes in atmospheric visibility, at a local scale. It proposes an innovative approach: applying the Generalised Additive Model statistical method to the detailed and extended dataset acquired at SIRTA. This method offers the opportunity to explore non linear relationships between parameters, which are not yet integrated in current numerical models. Emphasis will be put on aerosols and their impact on the fog life

  16. IMI - oral biopharmaceutics tools project - evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 1: Characterisation of the OrBiTo database of compounds.

    PubMed

    Margolskee, Alison; Darwich, Adam S; Pepin, Xavier; Pathak, Shriram M; Bolger, Michael B; Aarons, Leon; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Angstenberger, Jonas; Graf, Franziska; Laplanche, Loic; Müller, Thomas; Carlert, Sara; Daga, Pankaj; Murphy, Dónal; Tannergren, Christer; Yasin, Mohammed; Greschat-Schade, Susanne; Mück, Wolfgang; Muenster, Uwe; van der Mey, Dorina; Frank, Kerstin Julia; Lloyd, Richard; Adriaenssen, Lieve; Bevernage, Jan; De Zwart, Loeckie; Swerts, Dominique; Tistaert, Christophe; Van Den Bergh, An; Van Peer, Achiel; Beato, Stefania; Nguyen-Trung, Anh-Thu; Bennett, Joanne; McAllister, Mark; Wong, Mei; Zane, Patricia; Ollier, Céline; Vicat, Pascale; Kolhmann, Markus; Marker, Alexander; Brun, Priscilla; Mazuir, Florent; Beilles, Stéphane; Venczel, Marta; Boulenc, Xavier; Loos, Petra; Lennernäs, Hans; Abrahamsson, Bertil

    2017-01-01

    Predicting oral bioavailability (Foral) is of importance for estimating systemic exposure of orally administered drugs. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation have been applied extensively in biopharmaceutics recently. The Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project (Innovative Medicines Initiative) aims to develop and improve upon biopharmaceutical tools, including PBPK absorption models. A large-scale evaluation of PBPK models may be considered the first step. Here we characterise the OrBiTo active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) database for use in a large-scale simulation study. The OrBiTo database comprised 83 APIs and 1475 study arms. The database displayed a median logP of 3.60 (2.40-4.58), human blood-to-plasma ratio of 0.62 (0.57-0.71), and fraction unbound in plasma of 0.05 (0.01-0.17). The database mainly consisted of basic compounds (48.19%) and Biopharmaceutics Classification System class II compounds (55.81%). Median human intravenous clearance was 16.9L/h (interquartile range: 11.6-43.6L/h; n=23), volume of distribution was 80.8L (54.5-239L; n=23). The majority of oral formulations were immediate release (IR: 87.6%). Human Foral displayed a median of 0.415 (0.203-0.724; n=22) for IR formulations. The OrBiTo database was found to be largely representative of previously published datasets. 43 of the APIs were found to satisfy the minimum inclusion criteria for the simulation exercise, and many of these have significant gaps of other key parameters, which could potentially impact the interpretability of the simulation outcome. However, the OrBiTo simulation exercise represents a unique opportunity to perform a large-scale evaluation of the PBPK approach to predicting oral biopharmaceutics.

  17. Predicting aqueous solubility of environmentally relevant compounds from molecular features: a simple but highly effective four-dimensional model based on Project to Latent Structures.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Feng; Gulliver, John S; Simcik, Matt F

    2013-09-15

    The aqueous solubility (log S) of xenobiotic chemicals has been identified as a key characteristic in determining their bioaccessibility/bioavailability and their fate and transport in aquatic environments. We here explore and evaluate the use of a state-of-the-art data analysis technique (Project to Latent Structures, PLS) to estimate log S of environmentally relevant chemicals. A large number (n = 624) of molecular descriptors was computed for over 1400 organic chemicals, and then refined by a feature selection technique. Candidate predictor descriptors were fitted to data by means of PLS, which was optimized by an internal leave-one-out cross-validation technique and validated by an external data set. The final (best) PLS model with only four variables (AlogP, X1sol, Mv, and E) exhibited noteworthy stability and good predictive power. It was able to explain 91% of the data (n = 1400) variance with an average absolute error of 0.5 log units through the solubilities span over 12 orders of magnitude. The newly proposed model is transparent, easily portable from one user to another, and robust enough to accurately estimate log S of a wide range of emerging contaminants.

  18. The IACOB project. IV. New predictions for high-degree non-radial mode instability domains in massive stars and their connection with macroturbulent broadening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godart, M.; Simón-Díaz, S.; Herrero, A.; Dupret, M. A.; Grötsch-Noels, A.; Salmon, S. J. A. J.; Ventura, P.

    2017-01-01

    Context. Asteroseismology is a powerful tool to access the internal structure of stars. Apart from the important impact of theoretical developments, progress in this field has been commonly associated with the analysis of time-resolved observations. Recently, the so-called macroturbulent broadening has been proposed as a complementary and less expensive way - in terms of observational time - to investigate pulsations in massive stars. Aims: We assess to what extent this ubiquitous non-rotational broadening component which shapes the line profiles of O stars and B supergiants is a spectroscopic signature of pulsation modes driven by a heat mechanism. Methods: We compute stellar main-sequence and post-main-sequence models from 3 to 70 M⊙ with the ATON stellar evolution code, and determine the instability domains for heat-driven modes for degrees ℓ = 1-20 using the adiabatic and non-adiabatic codes LOSC and MAD. We use the observational material compiled in the framework of the IACOB project to investigate possible correlations between the single snapshot line-broadening properties of a sample of ≈260 O and B-type stars and their location inside or outside the various predicted instability domains. Results: We present an homogeneous prediction for the non-radial instability domains of massive stars for degree ℓ up to 20. We provide a global picture of what to expect from an observational point of view in terms of the frequency range of excited modes, and we investigate the behavior of the instabilities with respect to stellar evolution and the degree of the mode. Furthermore, our pulsational stability analysis, once compared to the empirical results, indicates that stellar oscillations originated by a heat mechanism cannot explain alone the occurrence of the large non-rotational line-broadening component commonly detected in the O star and B supergiant domain. Based on observations made with the Nordic Optical Telescope, operated by NOTSA, and the Mercator

  19. Project summaries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Lunar base projects, including a reconfigurable lunar cargo launcher, a thermal and micrometeorite protection system, a versatile lifting machine with robotic capabilities, a cargo transport system, the design of a road construction system for a lunar base, and the design of a device for removing lunar dust from material surfaces, are discussed. The emphasis on the Gulf of Mexico project was on the development of a computer simulation model for predicting vessel station keeping requirements. An existing code, used in predicting station keeping requirements for oil drilling platforms operating in North Shore (Alaska) waters was used as a basis for the computer simulation. Modifications were made to the existing code. The input into the model consists of satellite altimeter readings and water velocity readings from buoys stationed in the Gulf of Mexico. The satellite data consists of altimeter readings (wave height) taken during the spring of 1989. The simulation model predicts water velocity and direction, and wind velocity.

  20. Climate prediction and predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  1. Glyphosate Use Predicts ADHD Hospital Discharges in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Net (HCUPnet): A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fluegge, Keith R.; Fluegge, Kyle R.

    2015-01-01

    There has been considerable international study on the etiology of rising mental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), in human populations. As glyphosate is the most commonly used herbicide in the world, we sought to test the hypothesis that glyphosate use in agriculture may be a contributing environmental factor to the rise of ADHD in human populations. State estimates for glyphosate use and nitrogen fertilizer use were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We queried the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project net (HCUPNET) for state-level hospitalization discharge data in all patients for all-listed ADHD from 2007 to 2010. We used rural-urban continuum codes from the USDA-Economic Research Service when exploring the effect of urbanization on the relationship between herbicide use and ADHD. Least squares dummy variable (LSDV) method and within method using two-way fixed effects was used to elucidate the relationship between glyphosate use and all-listed ADHD hospital discharges. We show that a one kilogram increase in glyphosate use, in particular, in one year significantly positively predicts state-level all-listed ADHD discharges, expressed as a percent of total mental disorders, the following year (coefficient = 5.54E-08, p<.01). A study on the effect of urbanization on the relationship between glyphosate and ADHD indicates that the relationship is marginally significantly positive after multiple comparison correction only in urban U.S. counties (p<.025). Furthermore, total glyphosate use is strongly positively associated with total farm use of nitrogen fertilizers from 1992 to 2006 (p<.001). We present evidence from the biomedical research literature of a plausible link among glyphosate, nitrogen dysbiosis and ADHD. Glyphosate use is a significant predictor of state hospitalizations for all-listed ADHD hospital discharges, with the effect concentrated in urban U.S. counties. This effect is seen even after controlling

  2. Glyphosate Use Predicts ADHD Hospital Discharges in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Net (HCUPnet): A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis.

    PubMed

    Fluegge, Keith R; Fluegge, Kyle R

    2015-01-01

    There has been considerable international study on the etiology of rising mental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), in human populations. As glyphosate is the most commonly used herbicide in the world, we sought to test the hypothesis that glyphosate use in agriculture may be a contributing environmental factor to the rise of ADHD in human populations. State estimates for glyphosate use and nitrogen fertilizer use were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We queried the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project net (HCUPNET) for state-level hospitalization discharge data in all patients for all-listed ADHD from 2007 to 2010. We used rural-urban continuum codes from the USDA-Economic Research Service when exploring the effect of urbanization on the relationship between herbicide use and ADHD. Least squares dummy variable (LSDV) method and within method using two-way fixed effects was used to elucidate the relationship between glyphosate use and all-listed ADHD hospital discharges. We show that a one kilogram increase in glyphosate use, in particular, in one year significantly positively predicts state-level all-listed ADHD discharges, expressed as a percent of total mental disorders, the following year (coefficient = 5.54E-08, p<.01). A study on the effect of urbanization on the relationship between glyphosate and ADHD indicates that the relationship is marginally significantly positive after multiple comparison correction only in urban U.S. counties (p<.025). Furthermore, total glyphosate use is strongly positively associated with total farm use of nitrogen fertilizers from 1992 to 2006 (p<.001). We present evidence from the biomedical research literature of a plausible link among glyphosate, nitrogen dysbiosis and ADHD. Glyphosate use is a significant predictor of state hospitalizations for all-listed ADHD hospital discharges, with the effect concentrated in urban U.S. counties. This effect is seen even after controlling

  3. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  4. PREDICTIVE MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M. )

    1986-12-01

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3) in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4) polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5) steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  5. Joint analysis of deposition fluxes and atmospheric concentrations of inorganic nitrogen and sulphur compounds predicted by six chemistry transport models in the frame of the EURODELTAIII project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivanco, M. G.; Bessagnet, B.; Cuvelier, C.; Theobald, M. R.; Tsyro, S.; Pirovano, G.; Aulinger, A.; Bieser, J.; Calori, G.; Ciarelli, G.; Manders, A.; Mircea, M.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Briganti, G.; Cappelletti, A.; Colette, A.; Couvidat, F.; D'Isidoro, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Pay, M. T.; Rouïl, L.; Silibello, C.; Thunis, P.; Ung, A.

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the UNECE Task Force on Measurement and Modelling (TFMM) under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), the EURODELTAIII project is evaluating how well air quality models are able to reproduce observed pollutant air concentrations and deposition fluxes in Europe. In this paper the sulphur and nitrogen deposition estimates of six state-of-the-art regional models (CAMx, CHIMERE, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI and CMAQ) are evaluated and compared for four intensive EMEP measurement periods (25 Feb-26 Mar 2009; 17 Sep-15 Oct 2008; 8 Jan-4 Feb 2007 and 1-30 Jun 2006). For sulphur, this study shows the importance of including sea salt sulphate emissions for obtaining better model results; CMAQ, the only model considering these emissions in its formulation, was the only model able to reproduce the high measured values of wet deposition of sulphur at coastal sites. MINNI and LOTOS-EUROS underestimate sulphate wet deposition for all periods and have low wet deposition efficiency for sulphur. For reduced nitrogen, all the models underestimate both wet deposition and total air concentrations (ammonia plus ammonium) in the summer campaign, highlighting a potential lack of emissions (or incoming fluxes) in this period. In the rest of campaigns there is a general underestimation of wet deposition by all models (MINNI and CMAQ with the highest negative bias), with the exception of EMEP, which underestimates the least and even overestimates deposition in two campaigns. This model has higher scavenging deposition efficiency for the aerosol component, which seems to partly explain the different behaviour of the models. For oxidized nitrogen, CMAQ, CAMx and MINNI predict the lowest wet deposition and the highest total air concentrations (nitric acid plus nitrates). Comparison with observations indicates a general underestimation of wet oxidized nitrogen deposition by these models, as well as an overestimation of total air concentration for

  6. EPA's ToxCast Project: Lessons learned and future directions for use of HTS in predicting in vivo toxicology -- A Chemical Perspective

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. EPA’s ToxCast and the related Tox21 projects are employing high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies to profile thousands of chemicals, which in turn serve as probes of a wide diversity of targets, pathways and mechanisms related to toxicity. Initial models relating ToxCa...

  7. Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeGange, Anthony R.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Lawler, James; Jorgenson, Torre; Winfree, Robert

    2014-01-01

    We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

  8. Predicting Aircraft Availability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    ENS- GRP -13-J-2 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio...AFIT-ENS- GRP -13-J-2 PREDICTING AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY GRADUATE RESEARCH PROJECT Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational...APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT-ENS- GRP -13-J-2 PREDICTING AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY Mark A. Chapa

  9. Project PRISM: Project Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunnion, Maryellen; And Others

    The first of three volumes of Project PRISM, a program designed to help classroom teachers (grades 6 through 8) provide for the needs of their gifted and talented students without removing those students from the mainstream of education, outlines the project's background and achievements. Sections review the following project aspects (sample…

  10. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  11. Use of Cumulative Degradation Factor Prediction and Life Test Result of the Thruster Gimbal Assembly Actuator for the Dawn Flight Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, C. John; Brophy, John R.; Etters, M. Andy; Ramesham, Rajeshuni; Jones, William R., Jr.; Jansen, Mark J.

    2009-01-01

    The Dawn Ion Propulsion System is the ninth project in NASA s Discovery Program. The Dawn spacecraft is being developed to enable the scientific investigation of the two heaviest main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. Dawn is the first mission to orbit two extraterrestrial bodies, and the first to orbit a main-belt asteroid. The mission is enabled by the onboard Ion Propulsion System (IPS) to provide the post-launch delta-V. The three Ion Engines of the IPS are mounted on Thruster Gimbal Assembly (TGA), with only one engine operating at a time for this 10-year mission. The three TGAs weigh 14.6 kg.

  12. On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

    PubMed Central

    UYEDA, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  13. On earthquake prediction in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author's view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology - on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors.

  14. Predictive Values of the New Sarcopenia Index by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Sarcopenia Project for Mortality among Older Korean Adults

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jung Hee; Moon, Jae Hoon; Choi, Sung Hee; Lim, Soo; Lim, Jae-Young; Kim, Ki Woong; Park, Kyong Soo; Jang, Hak Chul

    2016-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Sarcopenia Project’s recommended criteria for sarcopenia’s association with mortality among older Korean adults. Methods We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study which included 560 (285 men and 275 women) older Korean adults aged ≥65 years. Muscle mass (appendicular skeletal muscle mass-to-body mass index ratio (ASM/BMI)), handgrip strength, and walking velocity were evaluated in association with all-cause mortality during 6-year follow-up. Both the lowest quintile for each parameter (ethnic-specific cutoff) and FNIH-recommended values were used as cutoffs. Results Forty men (14.0%) and 21 women (7.6%) died during 6-year follow-up. The deceased subjects were older and had lower ASM, handgrip strength, and walking velocity. Sarcopenia defined by both low lean mass and weakness had a 4.13 (95% CI, 1.69–10.11) times higher risk of death, and sarcopenia defined by a combination of low lean mass, weakness, and slowness had a 9.56 (3.16–28.90) times higher risk of death after adjusting for covariates in men. However, these significant associations were not observed in women. In terms of cutoffs of each parameter, using the lowest quintile showed better predictive values in mortality than using the FNIH-recommended values. Moreover, new muscle mass index, ASM/BMI, provided better prognostic values than ASM/height2 in all associations. Conclusions New sarcopenia definition by FNIH was better able to predict 6-year mortality among Korean men. Moreover, ethnic-specific cutoffs, the lowest quintile for each parameter, predicted the higher risk of mortality than the FNIH-recommended values. PMID:27832145

  15. IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 2: An introduction to the simulation exercise and overview of results.

    PubMed

    Margolskee, Alison; Darwich, Adam S; Pepin, Xavier; Aarons, Leon; Galetin, Aleksandra; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Carlert, Sara; Hammarberg, Maria; Hilgendorf, Constanze; Johansson, Pernilla; Karlsson, Eva; Murphy, Dónal; Tannergren, Christer; Thörn, Helena; Yasin, Mohammed; Mazuir, Florent; Nicolas, Olivier; Ramusovic, Sergej; Xu, Christine; Pathak, Shriram M; Korjamo, Timo; Laru, Johanna; Malkki, Jussi; Pappinen, Sari; Tuunainen, Johanna; Dressman, Jennifer; Hansmann, Simone; Kostewicz, Edmund; He, Handan; Heimbach, Tycho; Wu, Fan; Hoft, Carolin; Laplanche, Loic; Pang, Yan; Bolger, Michael B; Huehn, Eva; Lukacova, Viera; Mullin, James M; Szeto, Ke X; Costales, Chester; Lin, Jian; McAllister, Mark; Modi, Sweta; Rotter, Charles; Varma, Manthena; Wong, Mei; Mitra, Amitava; Bevernage, Jan; Biewenga, Jeike; Van Peer, Achiel; Lloyd, Richard; Shardlow, Carole; Langguth, Peter; Mishenzon, Irina; Nguyen, Mai Anh; Brown, Jonathan; Lennernäs, Hans; Abrahamsson, Bertil

    2017-01-01

    Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (Foral), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three available PBPK software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp®, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated by comparing simulated and observed pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. Since the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, caution is required when interpreting the results of this exercise. Additionally, this prospective simulation exercise may not be representative of prospective modelling in industry, as API information was limited to sparse details. 43 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from the OrBiTo database were selected for the exercise. Over 4000 simulation output files were generated, representing over 2550 study arm-institution-software combinations and approximately 600 human clinical study arms simulated with overlap. 84% of the simulated study arms represented administration of immediate release formulations, 11% prolonged or delayed release, and 5% intravenous (i.v.). Higher percentages of i.v. predicted area under the curve (AUC) were within two-fold of observed (52.9%) compared to per oral (p.o.) (37.2%), however, Foral and relative AUC (Frel) between p.o. formulations and solutions were generally well predicted (64.7% and 75.0%). Predictive performance declined progressing from i.v. to solution and immediate release tablet, indicating the compounding error with each layer of complexity. Overall performance was comparable to previous large-scale evaluations. A general overprediction of AUC was observed with average fold error (AFE) of 1.56 over all simulations. AFE ranged from 0.0361 to 64.0 across the 43 APIs, with 25 showing overpredictions. Discrepancies between software packages

  16. Development and Implications of a Predictive Cost Methodology for Modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) Projects in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Witt, Adam; Chalise, Dol Raj; Hadjerioua, Boualem; Manwaring, Michael; Bishop, Norm

    2016-10-01

    The slow pace of Pumped Storage Hydropower development in the US over the past twenty years has led to widespread interest in the feasibility and viability of alternative PSH designs, development schemes, and technologies. Since 2011, Oak Ridge National Lab has been exploring the economic viability of modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) development through targeted case studies, revenue simulations, and analysis of innovative configurations and designs. This paper outlines the development and supporting analysis of a scalable, comprehensive cost modeling tool designed to simulate the initial capital costs for a variety of potential m-PSH projects and deployment scenarios. The tool is used to explore and determine innovative research strategies that can improve the economic viability of m-PSH in US markets.

  17. Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 1: Operational applications of satellite snow cover observations: Executive summary. [usefulness of satellite snow-cover data for water yield prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rango, A.

    1981-01-01

    Both LANDSAT and NOAA satellite data were used in improving snowmelt runoff forecasts. When the satellite snow cover data were tested in both empirical seasonal runoff estimation and short term modeling approaches, a definite potential for reducing forecast error was evident. A cost benefit analysis run in conjunction with the snow mapping indicated a $36.5 million annual benefit accruing from a one percent improvement in forecast accuracy using the snow cover data for the western United States. The annual cost of employing the system would be $505,000. The snow mapping has proven that satellite snow cover data can be used to reduce snowmelt runoff forecast error in a cost effective manner once all operational satellite data are available within 72 hours after acquisition. Executive summaries of the individual snow mapping projects are presented.

  18. Orthostatic Hypotension and Elevated Resting Heart Rate Predict Low-Energy Fractures in the Population: The Malmö Preventive Project

    PubMed Central

    Hamrefors, Viktor; Härstedt, Maria; Holmberg, Anna; Rogmark, Cecilia; Sutton, Richard; Melander, Olle; Fedorowski, Artur

    2016-01-01

    Background Autonomic disorders of the cardiovascular system, such as orthostatic hypotension and elevated resting heart rate, predict mortality and cardiovascular events in the population. Low-energy-fractures constitute a substantial clinical problem that may represent an additional risk related to such autonomic dysfunction. Aims To test the association between orthostatic hypotension, resting heart rate and incidence of low-energy-fractures in the general population. Methods and Results Using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models we investigated the association between orthostatic blood pressure response, resting heart rate and first incident low-energy-fracture in a population-based, middle-aged cohort of 33 000 individuals over 25 years follow-up. The median follow-up time from baseline to first incident fracture among the subjects that experienced a low energy fracture was 15.0 years. A 10 mmHg orthostatic decrease in systolic blood pressure at baseline was associated with 5% increased risk of low-energy-fractures (95% confidence interval 1.01–1.10) during follow-up, whereas the resting heart rate predicted low-energy-fractures with an effect size of 8% increased risk per 10 beats-per-minute (1.05–1.12), independently of the orthostatic response. Subjects with a resting heart rate exceeding 68 beats-per-minute had 18% (1.10–1.26) increased risk of low-energy-fractures during follow-up compared with subjects with a resting heart rate below 68 beats-per-minute. When combining the orthostatic response and resting heart rate, there was a 30% risk increase (1.08–1.57) of low-energy-fractures between the extremes, i.e. between subjects in the fourth compared with the first quartiles of both resting heart rate and systolic blood pressure-decrease. Conclusion Orthostatic blood pressure decline and elevated resting heart rate independently predict low-energy fractures in a middle-aged population. These two measures of subclinical cardiovascular

  19. Integrative Pathway Analysis of Metabolic Signature in Bladder Cancer: A Linkage to The Cancer Genome Atlas Project and Prediction of Survival

    PubMed Central

    von Rundstedt, Friedrich-Carl; Rajapakshe, Kimal; Ma, Jing; Arnold, James M.; Gohlke, Jie; Putluri, Vasanta; Krishnapuram, Rashmi; Piyarathna, D. Badrajee; Lotan, Yair; Gödde, Daniel; Roth, Stephan; Störkel, Stephan; Levitt, Jonathan M.; Michailidis, George; Sreekumar, Arun; Lerner, Seth P.; Coarfa, Cristian; Putluri, Nagireddy

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We used targeted mass spectrometry to study the metabolic fingerprint of urothelial cancer and determine whether the biochemical pathway analysis gene signature would have a predictive value in independent cohorts of patients with bladder cancer. Materials and Methods Pathologically evaluated, bladder derived tissues, including benign adjacent tissue from 14 patients and bladder cancer from 46, were analyzed by liquid chromatography based targeted mass spectrometry. Differential metabolites associated with tumor samples in comparison to benign tissue were identified by adjusting the p values for multiple testing at a false discovery rate threshold of 15%. Enrichment of pathways and processes associated with the metabolic signature were determined using the GO (Gene Ontology) Database and MSigDB (Molecular Signature Database). Integration of metabolite alterations with transcriptome data from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) was done to identify the molecular signature of 30 metabolic genes. Available outcome data from TCGA portal were used to determine the association with survival. Results We identified 145 metabolites, of which analysis revealed 31 differential metabolites when comparing benign and tumor tissue samples. Using the KEGG (Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes) Database we identified a total of 174 genes that correlated with the altered metabolic pathways involved. By integrating these genes with the transcriptomic data from the corresponding TCGA data set we identified a metabolic signature consisting of 30 genes. The signature was significant in its prediction of survival in 95 patients with a low signature score vs 282 with a high signature score (p = 0.0458). Conclusions Targeted mass spectrometry of bladder cancer is highly sensitive for detecting metabolic alterations. Applying transcriptome data allows for integration into larger data sets and identification of relevant metabolic pathways in bladder cancer progression. PMID:26802582

  20. Prenatal maternal stress predicts reductions in CD4+ lymphocytes, increases in innate-derived cytokines, and a Th2 shift in adolescents: Project Ice Storm.

    PubMed

    Veru, Franz; Dancause, Kelsey; Laplante, David P; King, Suzanne; Luheshi, Giamal

    2015-05-15

    The relationship between psychological stress and immunity is well established, but it is not clear if prenatal maternal stress (PNMS) affects the development of the immune system in humans. Our objective was to determine the extent of this influence in a sample of teenagers whose mothers were pregnant during the 1998 Quebec ice storm. As part of a longitudinal study of PNMS, we measured the objective stress exposure and subjective distress of the women soon after the disaster. We obtained blood samples from 37 of their children when they were 13years old to measure cell population percentages and mitogen-induced cytokine production. We found that the mothers' objective degree of PNMS exposure significantly predicted reductions in total and CD4+ lymphocyte proportions, increases in TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 levels, and an enhancement of the Th2 cytokines IL-4 and IL-13. Sex and timing of PNMS exposure during gestation were also associated with some outcomes. These results show that PNMS is a programming factor that can produce long-lasting consequences on immunity, potentially explaining non-genetic variability in immune-related disorders. This information contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the influence of PNMS on immune-mediated disorders in humans.

  1. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    SciTech Connect

    Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  2. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  3. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  4. Project Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1978

    1978-01-01

    Presents sixteen project notes developed by pupils of Chipping Norton School and Bristol Grammar School, in the United Kingdom. These Projects include eight biology A-level projects and eight Chemistry A-level projects. (HM)

  5. Predicting breed composition using breed frequencies of 50,000 markers from the US Meat Animal Research Center 2,000 Bull Project.

    PubMed

    Kuehn, L A; Keele, J W; Bennett, G L; McDaneld, T G; Smith, T P L; Snelling, W M; Sonstegard, T S; Thallman, R M

    2011-06-01

    Knowledge of breed composition can be useful in multiple aspects of cattle production, and can be critical for analyzing the results of whole genome-wide association studies currently being conducted around the world. We examine the feasibility and accuracy of using genotype data from the most prevalent bovine genome-wide association studies platform, the Illumina BovineSNP50 array (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA), to estimate breed composition for individual breeds of cattle. First, allele frequencies (of Illumina-defined allele B) of SNP on the array for each of 16 beef cattle breeds were defined by genotyping a large set of more than 2,000 bulls selected in cooperation with the respective breed associations to be representative of their breed. With these breed-specific allele frequencies, the breed compositions of approximately 2,000 two-, three-, and four-way cross (of 8 breeds) cattle produced at the US Meat Animal Research Center were predicted by using a simple multiple regression technique or Mendel (http://www.genetics.ucla.edu/software/mendel) and their genotypes from the Illumina BovineSNP50 array, and were then compared with pedigree-based estimates of breed composition. The accuracy of marker-based breed composition estimates was 89% when using either estimation method for all breeds except Angus and Red Angus (averaged 79%), based on comparing estimates with pedigree-based average breed composition. Accuracy increased to approximately 88% when these 2 breeds were combined into an aggregate Angus group. Additionally, we used a subset of these markers, approximately 3,000 that populate the Illumina Bovine3K (Illumina Inc.), to see whether breed composition could be estimated with similar accuracy when using this reduced panel of SNP makers. When breed composition was estimated using only SNP in common with the Bovine 3K array, accuracy was slightly reduced to 83%. These results suggest that SNP data from these arrays could be used to estimate breed

  6. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  7. Projects Work!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Textor, Martin R.

    2005-01-01

    The great educational value of projects is emphasized by contrasting negative aspects of the life of today's children with the goals of project work. This is illustrated by a project "Shopping." It is shown what children are learning in such projects and what the advantages of project work are. Relevant topic areas, criteria for selecting a…

  8. Project Wild (Project Tame).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siegenthaler, David

    For 37 states in the United States, Project Wild has become an officially sanctioned, distributed and funded "environemtnal and conservation education program." For those who are striving to implement focused, sequential, learning programs, as well as those who wish to promote harmony through a non-anthropocentric world view, Project…

  9. Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Azose, Jonathan J; Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-06-07

    We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.

  10. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans potentially are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Many of these chemicals never have been tested for their ability to interact with the es...

  11. VIPER project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kershaw, John

    1990-01-01

    The VIPER project has so far produced a formal specification of a 32 bit RISC microprocessor, an implementation of that chip in radiation-hard SOS technology, a partial proof of correctness of the implementation which is still being extended, and a large body of supporting software. The time has now come to consider what has been achieved and what directions should be pursued in the future. The most obvious lesson from the VIPER project was the time and effort needed to use formal methods properly. Most of the problems arose in the interfaces between different formalisms, e.g., between the (informal) English description and the HOL spec, between the block-level spec in HOL and the equivalent in ELLA needed by the low-level CAD tools. These interfaces need to be made rigorous or (better) eliminated. VIPER 1A (the latest chip) is designed to operate in pairs, to give protection against breakdowns in service as well as design faults. We have come to regard redundancy and formal design methods as complementary, the one to guard against normal component failures and the other to provide insurance against the risk of the common-cause failures which bedevil reliability predictions. Any future VIPER chips will certainly need improved performance to keep up with increasingly demanding applications. We have a prototype design (not yet specified formally) which includes 32 and 64 bit multiply, instruction pre-fetch, more efficient interface timing, and a new instruction to allow a quick response to peripheral requests. Work is under way to specify this device in MIRANDA, and then to refine the spec into a block-level design by top-down transformations. When the refinement is complete, a relatively simple proof checker should be able to demonstrate its correctness. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  12. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  13. Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  14. Predicting Hurricanes with Supercomputers

    SciTech Connect

    2010-01-01

    Hurricane Emily, formed in the Atlantic Ocean on July 10, 2005, was the strongest hurricane ever to form before August. By checking computer models against the actual path of the storm, researchers can improve hurricane prediction. In 2010, NOAA researchers were awarded 25 million processor-hours on Argonne's BlueGene/P supercomputer for the project. Read more at http://go.usa.gov/OLh

  15. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  16. Climate Modeling and Prediction at NSIPP

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Max; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The talk will review modeling and prediction efforts undertaken as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus will be on atmospheric model results, including its use for experimental seasonal prediction and the diagnostic analysis of climate anomalies. The model's performance in coupled experiments with land and atmosphere models will also be discussed.

  17. Map projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1993-01-01

    A map projection is used to portray all or part of the round Earth on a flat surface. This cannot be done without some distortion. Every projection has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. There is no "best" projection. The mapmaker must select the one best suited to the needs, reducing distortion of the most important features. Mapmakers and mathematicians have devised almost limitless ways to project the image of the globe onto paper. Scientists at the U. S. Geological Survey have designed projections for their specific needs—such as the Space Oblique Mercator, which allows mapping from satellites with little or no distortion. This document gives the key properties, characteristics, and preferred uses of many historically important projections and of those frequently used by mapmakers today.

  18. Graduate Student Project: Operations Management Product Plan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fish, Lynn

    2007-01-01

    An operations management product project is an effective instructional technique that fills a void in current operations management literature in product planning. More than 94.1% of 286 graduates favored the project as a learning tool, and results demonstrate the significant impact the project had in predicting student performance. The author…

  19. Costs of predicting IDDM.

    PubMed

    Hahl, J; Simell, T; Ilonen, J; Knip, M; Simell, O

    1998-01-01

    Programmes aiming at prediction and prevention of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM), a multifactorial autoimmune disease, have been launched or are in the planning phase in several countries. We hypothesized that the costs of finding the correct target subjects for preventive interventions are likely to vary markedly according to the prediction strategy chosen. Average direct costs accruing in the Finnish IDDM Prediction and Prevention Project (DIPP) were analysed from the health care provider's viewpoint. The genetically targeted strategy included costs of assessing genetic IDDM susceptibility followed by measurement of marker(s) of islet autoimmunity in the susceptibility restricted population at 3 to 6-month intervals. In the pure immunological strategy markers of autoimmunity were repeatedly analysed in the entire population. The data were finally exposed to sensitivity analysis. The genetically targeted prediction strategy is cost-saving in the first year if autoimmune markers are analysed as frequently as under the DIPP project, and in all circumstances later. The 10-year direct costs per child are US$ 245 (present value $ 217, 5% discount rate) if the genetically targeted approach is used and $ 733 (present value $ 619) if the pure immunological strategy is chosen. In sensitivity analysis the 10-year costs (present value) per child of the genetically targeted strategy and of the pure immunological strategy varied from $ 152 to $ 241 and from $ 430 to $ 788, respectively. The genetically targeted IDDM prediction strategy is remarkably cost-saving as compared with the pure immunological strategy mainly because fewer subjects will need retesting during the follow-up.

  20. Prediction & Assessment of Dermal Exposure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    cutaneous exposure requires the transdermal penetration of the chemical. The unique permeation barrier properties of skin ensure that the kinetics of...following dermal exposure, therefore, requires that the rate of skin penetration in man be predictable. The specific aims of the project were: (1) to...derive, from a compre- hensive database of the percutaneous absorption/ penetration literature predictive ("structure-activity") algorithms to calculate a

  1. Project SEED.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1986

    1986-01-01

    Reports on Project SEED (Summer Educational Experience for the Disadvantaged) a project in which high school students from low-income families work in summer jobs in a variety of academic, industrial, and government research labs. The program introduces the students to career possibilities in chemistry and to the advantages of higher education.…

  2. Project EASIER.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvord, David J.; Tack, Leland R.; Dallam, Jerald W.

    1998-01-01

    Describes the development of Project EASIER, a collaborative electronic-data interchange for networking Iowa local school districts, education agencies, community colleges, universities, and the Department of Education. The primary goal of this project is to develop and implement a system for collection of student information for state and federal…

  3. Project Success.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meredith, Larry D.

    Project Success consists of after-school, weekend, and summer educational programs geared toward minority and disadvantaged students to increase their numbers seeking postsecondary education from the Meadville, Pennsylvania area. The project is funded primarily through the Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, whose administration is committed to…

  4. Project CHILD.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robison, Helen F.; And Others

    This document described Project CHILD, a program of educational change and curriculum development for disadvantaged prekindergarten and kindergarten children. The historical part of this report indicates that the project began in 1966 with a small-scale study of teacher behavior and children's responses in a few classrooms in a Harlem school…

  5. Project FAST.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Essexville-Hampton Public Schools, MI.

    Described are components of Project FAST (Functional Analysis Systems Training) a nationally validated project to provide more effective educational and support services to learning disordered children and their regular elementary classroom teachers. The program is seen to be based on a series of modules of delivery systems ranging from mainstream…

  6. Final project report

    SciTech Connect

    Nitin S. Baliga and Leroy Hood

    2008-11-12

    The proposed overarching goal for this project was the following: Data integration, simulation and visualization will facilitate metabolic and regulatory network prediction, exploration, and formulation of hypotheses. We stated three specific aims to achieve the overarching goal of this project: (1) Integration of multiple levels of information such as mRNA and protein levels, predicted protein-protein interactions/associations and gene function will enable construction of models describing environmental response and dynamic behavior. (2) Flexible tools for network inference will accelerate our understanding of biological systems. (3) Flexible exploration and queries of model hypotheses will provide focus and reveal novel dependencies. The underlying philosophy of these proposed aims is that an iterative cycle of experiments, experimental design, and verification will lead to a comprehensive and predictive model that will shed light on systems level mechanisms involved in responses elicited by living systems upon sensing a change in their environment. In the previous years report we demonstrated considerable progress in development of data standards, regulatory network inference and data visualization and exploration. We are pleased to report that several manuscripts describing these procedures have been published in top international peer reviewed journals including Genome Biology, PNAS, and Cell. The abstracts of these manuscripts are given and they summarize our accomplishments in this project.

  7. Successful Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2012-12-01

    In an observational science, it is not possible to test hypotheses through controlled laboratory experiments. One can test parts of the system in the lab (as is done routinely with infrared spectroscopy of greenhouse gases), but the collective behavior cannot be tested experimentally because a star or planet cannot be brought into the lab; it must, instead, itself be the lab. In the case of anthropogenic global warming, this is all too literally true, and the experiment would be quite exciting if it weren't for the unsettling fact that we and all our descendents for the forseeable future will have to continue making our home in the lab. There are nonetheless many routes though which the validity of a theory of the collective behavior can be determined. A convincing explanation must not be a"just-so" story, but must make additional predictions that can be verified against observations that were not originally used in formulating the theory. The field of Earth and planetary climate has racked up an impressive number of such predictions. I will also admit as "predictions" statements about things that happened in the past, provided that observations or proxies pinning down the past climate state were not available at the time the prediction was made. The basic prediction that burning of fossil fuels would lead to an increase of atmospheric CO2, and that this would in turn alter the Earth's energy balance so as to cause tropospheric warming, is one of the great successes of climate science. It began in the lineage of Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius, and was largely complete with the the radiative-convective modeling work of Manabe in the 1960's -- all well before the expected warming had progressed far enough to be observable. Similarly, long before the increase in atmospheric CO2 could be detected, Bolin formulated a carbon cycle model and used it to predict atmospheric CO2 out to the year 2000; the actual values come in at the high end of his predicted range, for

  8. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  9. ENSO predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah Michelle

    The overarching goal of this work is to explore seasonal El Nino -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. More specifically, this work investigates how intrinsic variability affects ENSO predictability using a state-of-the-art climate model. Topics related to the effects of systematic model errors and external forcing are not included in this study. Intrinsic variability encompasses a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales, from high frequency small-scale noise-driven processes including coupled instabilities to low frequency large-scale deterministic climate modes. The former exemplifies what can be considered intrinsic "noise" in the climate system that hinders predictability by promoting rapid error growth whereas the latter often provides the slow thermal ocean inertia that supplies the coupled ENSO system with predictability. These two ends of the spectrum essentially provide the lower and upper bounds of ENSO predictability that can be attributed to internal variability. The effects of noise-driven coupled instabilities on sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the ENSO region is quantified by utilizing a novel coupled model methodology paired with an ensemble approach. The experimental design allows for rapid growth of intrinsic perturbations that are not prescribed. Several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO-like final states that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Results challenge conventional ENSO theory that considers the subsurface precursor as a necessary condition for ENSO. Noise-driven SST error growth exhibits strong seasonality and dependence on the initialization month. A dynamical analysis reveals that much of the error growth behavior is linked to the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback in the model, indicating that the noise-induced perturbations grow via an ENSO-like mechanism. The daily error fields reveal that persistent

  10. Dropout Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Jonathan; And Others

    Secondary school students who drop out of school are put at great social and economic disadvantage. If potential dropouts can be identified early, prevention may be possible. To construct a prediction model which, through readily available school information, will aid in the identification of students likely to drop out, schools in the Austin,…

  11. Discussion of the design of satellite-laser measurement stations in the eastern Mediterranean under the geological aspect. Contribution to the earthquake prediction research by the Wegener Group and to NASA's Crustal Dynamics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paluska, A.; Pavoni, N.

    1983-01-01

    Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.

  12. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    SciTech Connect

    King, Bruce Hardison; Hansen, Clifford; Stein, Joshua

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  13. Predictive dynamic digital holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulaiman, Sennan; Gibson, Steve; Spencer, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high energy laser systems and high speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing to optimize some sharpness criteria. This paper demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches developed recently at UCLA for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum variance wavefront prediction into digital holography schemes to short-circuit the computationally intensive algorithms for iterative propagation of virtual wavefronts and hill climbing for sharpness optimization.

  14. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  15. Project LEAF

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project LEAF has a goal of educating farmworkers about how to reduce pesticide exposure to their families from pesticide residues they may be inadvertently taking home on their clothing, etc. Find outreach materials.

  16. Geodynamics Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drake, Charles L.

    1977-01-01

    Describes activities of Geodynamics Project of the Federal Council on Science and Technology, such as the application of multichannel seismic-reflection techniques to study the nature of the deep crust and upper mantle. (MLH)

  17. Project Reptile!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diffily, Deborah

    2001-01-01

    Integrating curriculum is important in helping children make connections within and among areas. Presents a class project for kindergarten children which came out of the students' interests and desire to build a reptile exhibit. (ASK)

  18. Swedish Projects

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-12-01

    development, evaluate training regimes and design of new systems with complex man- machine interface problems. The project uses advanced statistical...physiological measures to provide input to adaptive man- machine interfaces . The goal of the projects is to further develop measurement methods with...dinteraction Homme -Système Intuitive)., The original document contains color images. 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17

  19. Windshear Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    Windshear microbursts and extreme air turbulence caused by sudden intense changes in wind direction or speed are difficult to detect and thus dangerous to air traffic. They have been positively identified as the cause of 28 aviation accidents that claimed 491 lives. Many groups are investigating ways to detect and predict windshear. The Federal Aviation Consulting Services, Ltd. (FACS) is applying artificial intelligence to windshear prediction. FACS' artificial intelligence based airline dispatcher program is intended as a backup not a replacement for human dispatcher. It would incorporate the same data that a human would request to make a decision and then draw a conclusion using the same rules of logic as the human expert.

  20. Maximum Capital Project Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adams, Matt

    2002-01-01

    Describes the stages of capital project planning and development: (1) individual capital project submission; (2) capital project proposal assessment; (3) executive committee; and (4) capital project execution. (EV)

  1. Project Artemis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Birchenough, Shawn; Kato, Denise; Kennedy, Fred; Akin, David

    1990-01-01

    The goals of Project Artemis are designed to meet the challege of President Bush to return to the Moon, this time to stay. The first goal of the project is to establish a permanent manned base on the Moon for the purposes of scientific research and technological development. The knowledge gained from the establishment and operations of the lunar base will then be used to achieve the second goal of Project Artemis, the establishment of a manned base on the Martian surface. Throughout both phases of the program, crew safety will be the number one priority. There are four main issues that have governed the entire program: crew safety and mission success, commonality, growth potential, and costing and scheduling. These issues are discussed in more detail.

  2. Theoretical predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brasseur, G.; Boville, B. A.; Bruhl, C.; Caldwell, M.; Connell, Peter S.; Derudder, A.; Douglas, A.; Dyominov, I.; Fisher, D.; Frederick, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

  3. Word prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Rumelhart, D.E.; Skokowski, P.G.; Martin, B.O.

    1995-05-01

    In this project we have developed a language model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for use in conjunction with automatic textual search or speech recognition systems. The model can be trained on large corpora of text to produce probability estimates that would improve the ability of systems to identify words in a sentence given partial contextual information. The model uses a gradient-descent learning procedure to develop a metric of similarity among terms in a corpus, based on context. Using lexical categories based on this metric, a network can then be trained to do serial word probability estimation. Such a metric can also be used to improve the performance of topic-based search by allowing retrieval of information that is related to desired topics even if no obvious set of key words unites all the retrieved items.

  4. Apollo Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1965-01-01

    Langley personnel at Cape Canaveral during preliminary checkout of Project FIRE velocity package before launch. Project FIRE (Flight Investigation Reentry Environment) studied the effects of reentry heating on spacecraft materials. It involved both wind tunnel and flight tests, although the majority were tests with Atlas rockets and recoverable reentry packages. These flight tests took place at Cape Canaveral in Florida. Wind tunnel tests were made in several Langley tunnels including the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, the 8-foot High-Temperature Tunnel and the 9- x 6-Foot Thermal Structures Tunnel.

  5. Cloudnet Project

    DOE Data Explorer

    Hogan, Robin

    2008-01-15

    Cloudnet is a research project supported by the European Commission. This project aims to use data obtained quasi-continuously for the development and implementation of cloud remote sensing synergy algorithms. The use of active instruments (lidar and radar) results in detailed vertical profiles of important cloud parameters which cannot be derived from current satellite sensing techniques. A network of three already existing cloud remote sensing stations (CRS-stations) will be operated for a two year period, activities will be co-ordinated, data formats harmonised and analysis of the data performed to evaluate the representation of clouds in four major european weather forecast models.

  6. LLAMA Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, E. M.; Abraham, Z.; Giménez de Castro, G.; de Gouveia dal Pino, E. M.; Larrarte, J. J.; Lepine, J.; Morras, R.; Viramonte, J.

    2014-10-01

    The project LLAMA, acronym of Long Latin American Millimetre Array is very briefly described in this paper. This project is a joint scientific and technological undertaking of Argentina and Brazil on the basis of an equal investment share, whose mail goal is both to install and to operate an observing facility capable of exploring the Universe at millimetre and sub/millimetre wavelengths. This facility will be erected in the argentinean province of Salta, in a site located at 4830m above sea level.

  7. Spent Nuclear Fuel project, project management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Fuquay, B.J.

    1995-10-25

    The Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel Project has been established to safely store spent nuclear fuel at the Hanford Site. This Project Management Plan sets forth the management basis for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project. The plan applies to all fabrication and construction projects, operation of the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project facilities, and necessary engineering and management functions within the scope of the project

  8. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  9. A mathematical model for predicting the probability of acute mortality in a human population exposed to accidentally released airborne radionuclides. Final report for Phase I of the project: early effects of inhaled radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Filipy, R.E.; Borst, F.J.; Cross, F.T.; Park, J.F.; Moss, O.R.

    1980-06-01

    The report presents a mathematical model for the purpose of predicting the fraction of human population which would die within 1 year of an accidental exposure to airborne radionuclides. The model is based on data from laboratory experiments with rats, dogs and baboons, and from human epidemiological data. Doses from external, whole-body irradiation and from inhaled, alpha- and beta-emitting radionuclides are calculated for several organs. The probabilities of death from radiation pneumonitis and from bone marrow irradiation are predicted from doses accumulated within 30 days of exposure to the radioactive aerosol. The model is compared with existing similar models under hypothetical exposure conditions. Suggestions for further experiments with inhaled radionuclides are included.

  10. Predicting fertility.

    PubMed

    Maheshwari, Abha; Bhattacharya, Siladitya; Johnson, Neil P

    2008-06-01

    Various predictors of fertility have been described, suggesting that none are ideal. The literature on tests of ovarian reserve is largely limited to women undergoing in vitro fertilization, and is reliant on the use of surrogate markers, such as cycle cancellation and number of oocytes retrieved, as reference standards. Currently available prediction models are far from ideal; most are applicable only to subfertile women seeking assisted reproduction, and lack external validation. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of predictors of fertility are limited by their heterogeneity in terms of the population sampled, predictors tested and reference standards used. There is an urgent need for consensus in the design of these studies, definition of abnormal tests, and, above all, a need to use robust outcomes such as live birth as the reference standard. There are no reliable predictors of fertility that can guide women as to how long childbearing can be deferred.

  11. Project Documerica

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of College Science Teaching, 1972

    1972-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has started a project to actually picture the environmental movement in the United States. This is an attempt to make the public aware of the air pollution in their area or state and to acquaint them with the effects of air cleaning efforts. (PS)

  12. Project Schoolflight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Owen, Ben

    1975-01-01

    Describes "Project School Flight" which is an idea originated by the Experimental Aircraft Association to provide the opportunity for young people to construct a light aircraft in the schools as part of a normal class. Address included of Experimental Aircraft Association for interested persons. (BR)

  13. Project CLASS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBain, Susan L.; And Others

    Project CLASS (Competency-Based Live-Ability Skills) uses a series of 60 modules to teach life survival skills to adults with low-level reading ability--especially Adult Basic Education/English as a Second Language students. Two versions of the modules have been developed: one for use with teacher-directed instruction and another for independent…

  14. Project Notes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Listed are 32 biology A-level projects, categorized by organisms studied as follows: algae (1), bryophytes (1), angiosperms (14), fungi (1), flatworms (1), annelids (2), molluscs (1), crustaceans (2), insects (4), fish (2), mammals (1), humans (1); and one synecological study. (CS)

  15. Limnological Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hambler, David J.; Dixon, Jean M.

    1982-01-01

    Describes collection of quantitative samples of microorganisms and accumulation of physical data from a pond over a year. Provides examples of how final-year degree students have used materials and data for ecological projects (involving mainly algae), including their results/conclusions. Also describes apparatus and reagents used in the student…

  16. Hydrosphere Project.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This final report summarizes the seven foot Hydrosphere Project. During the course of this program, three Interim Reports were submitted. Interim...to the final assembly of the seven foot Hydrosphere . This final report includes a brief outline of each of the above noted Interim Reports, as well as

  17. Project CAST.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles County Board of Education, La Plata, MD. Office of Special Education.

    The document outlines procedures for implementing Project CAST (Community and School Together), a community-based career education program for secondary special education students in Charles County, Maryland. Initial sections discuss the role of a learning coordinator, (including relevant travel reimbursement and mileage forms) and an overview of…

  18. Project Choice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, MO.

    Project Choice was begun with the goal of increasing the number of inner-city students who graduate on time. Ewing M. Kauffman and his business and foundation associates designed and elected to test a model that used the promise of postsecondary education or training as the incentive to stay in school. This report details the evolution of Project…

  19. Thanksgiving Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilden, Pauline

    1976-01-01

    A teacher describes a Thanksgiving project in which 40 educable mentally retarded students (6-13 years old) made and served their own dinner of stew, butter, bread, ice cream, and pie, and in the process learned about social studies, cooking, and proper meal behavior. (CL)

  20. Project Boomerang

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Allen L.

    1975-01-01

    Describes an experimental project on boomerangs designed for an undergraduate course in classical mechanics. The students designed and made their own boomerangs, devised their own procedures, and carried out suitable measurements. Presents some of their data and a simple analysis for the two-bladed boomerang. (Author/MLH)

  1. Project ENRICH.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gwaley, Elizabeth; And Others

    Project ENRICH was conceived in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, to: (1) identify preschool children with learning disabilities, and (2) to develop a program geared to the remediation of the learning disabilities within a school year, while allowing the child to be enrolled in a regular class situation for the following school year. Through…

  2. Project Succeed.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patterson, John

    Project Succeed is a program for helping failure- and dropout-oriented pupils to improve their school achievement. Attendance and assignment completion are the key behaviors for enhancing achievement. Behavior modification and communications procedures are used to bring about the desired changes. Treatment procedures include current assessment…

  3. Project Reconstruct.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helisek, Harriet; Pratt, Donald

    1994-01-01

    Presents a project in which students monitor their use of trash, input and analyze information via a database and computerized graphs, and "reconstruct" extinct or endangered animals from recyclable materials. The activity was done with second-grade students over a period of three to four weeks. (PR)

  4. Project Narrative

    SciTech Connect

    Driscoll, Mary C.

    2012-07-12

    The Project Narrative describes how the funds from the DOE grant were used to purchase equipment for the biology, chemistry, physics and mathematics departments. The Narrative also describes how the equipment is being used. There is also a list of the positive outcomes as a result of having the equipment that was purchased with the DOE grant.

  5. Project Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Listed and described are student A-level biology projects in the following areas: Angiosperm studies (e.g., factors affecting growth of various plants), 7; Bacterial studies, 1; Insect studies, 2; Fish studies, 1; Mammal studies, 1; Human studies, 1; Synecology studies, 2; Environmental studies, 2; and Enzyme studies, 1. (CS)

  6. NDLGS project update

    SciTech Connect

    Lienert, Thomas J; Sutton, Jacob O; Piltch, Martin S; Lujan, Dennis J

    2011-01-14

    Recent results for laser and ESD processing for the NDLGS project will be reviewed. Conclusions are: (1) Short mix passes have profound effect on window T; (2) Multiple drill and re-weld at single location has been shown to be feasible and successful; (3) Kapton beam profiling method has been successfully developed. Comparison of 100 mm and 120 mm lenses gives reasonable and consistent results; (4) Manifold pumpdown data has been presented; (5) ESO results can be accurately predicted once a repeatable efficiency has been established; and (6) The electrode-workpiece geometry may play an important on ESO efficiency. Experiments are planned to investigate these effects.

  7. Solar prediction and intelligent machines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Gordon G.

    1987-01-01

    The solar prediction program is aimed at reducing or eliminating the need to throughly understand the process previously developed and to still be able to produce a prediction. Substantial progress was made in identifying the procedures to be coded as well as testing some of the presently coded work. Another project involves work on developing ideas and software that should result in a machine capable of learning as well as carrying on an intelligent conversation over a wide range of topics. The underlying idea is to use primitive ideas and construct higher order ideas from these, which can then be easily related one to another.

  8. Cognitive Education Project. Summary Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulcahy, Robert; And Others

    The Cognitive Education Project conducted a 3-year longitudinal evaluation of two cognitive education programs that were aimed at teaching thinking skills. The critical difference between the two experimental programs was that one, Feuerstein's Instrumental Enrichment (IE) method, was taught out of curricular content, while the other, the…

  9. A Game Theoretic Approach to Cyber Attack Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Peng Liu

    2005-11-28

    The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers. The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security.

  10. Project Prometheus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Steve

    2003-01-01

    Project Prometheus will enable a new paradigm in the scientific exploration of the Solar System. The proposed JIMO mission will start a new generation of missions characterized by more maneuverability, flexibility, power and lifetime. Project Prometheus organization is established at NASA Headquarters: 1.Organization established to carry out development of JIMO, nuclear power (radioisotope), and nuclear propulsion research. 2.Completed broad technology and national capacity assessments to inform decision making on planning and technology development. 3.Awarded five NRA s for nuclear propulsion research. 4.Radioisotope power systems in development, and Plutonium-238 being purchased from Russia. 5.Formulated science driven near-term and long-term plan for the safe utilization of nuclear propulsion based missions. 6.Completed preliminary studies (Pre-Phase A) of JIMO and other missions. 7.Initiated JIMO Phase A studies by Contractors and NASA.

  11. Hydropower Projects

    SciTech Connect

    2015-04-02

    The Water Power Program helps industry harness this renewable, emissions-free resource to generate environmentally sustainable and cost-effective electricity. Through support for public, private, and nonprofit efforts, the Water Power Program promotes the development, demonstration, and deployment of advanced hydropower devices and pumped storage hydropower applications. These technologies help capture energy stored by diversionary structures, increase the efficiency of hydroelectric generation, and use excess grid energy to replenish storage reserves for use during periods of peak electricity demand. In addition, the Water Power Program works to assess the potential extractable energy from domestic water resources to assist industry and government in planning for our nation’s energy future. From FY 2008 to FY 2014, DOE’s Water Power Program announced awards totaling approximately $62.5 million to 33 projects focused on hydropower. Table 1 provides a brief description of these projects.

  12. SIMBIOS Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRAI) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

  13. Ceramic Technology Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-03-01

    The Ceramic Technology Project was developed by the USDOE Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the USDOE and NASA advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. These programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. A five-year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. In July 1990 the original plan was updated through the estimated completion of development in 1993. The objective is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on the structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic bearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines. To facilitate the rapid transfer of this technology to US industry, the major portion of the work is being done in the ceramic industry, with technological support from government laboratories, other industrial laboratories, and universities.

  14. Project MEDSAT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    During the winter term of 1991, two design courses at the University of Michigan worked on a joint project, MEDSAT. The two design teams consisted of the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Spacite System Design and Aerospace Engineering 483 (Aero 483) Aerospace System Design. In collaboration, they worked to produce MEDSAT, a satellite and scientific payload whose purpose was to monitor environmental conditions over Chiapas, Mexico. Information gained from the sensing, combined with regional data, would be used to determine the potential for malaria occurrence in that area. The responsibilities of AOSS 605 consisted of determining the remote sensing techniques, the data processing, and the method to translate the information into a usable output. Aero 483 developed the satellite configuration and the subsystems required for the satellite to accomplish its task. The MEDSAT project is an outgrowth of work already being accomplished by NASA's Biospheric and Disease Monitoring Program and Ames Research Center. NASA's work has been to develop remote sensing techniques to determine the abundance of disease carriers and now this project will place the techniques aboard a satellite. MEDSAT will be unique in its use of both a Synthetic Aperture Radar and visual/IR sensor to obtain comprehensive monitoring of the site. In order to create a highly feasible system, low cost was a high priority. To obtain this goal, a light satellite configuration launched by the Pegasus launch vehicle was used.

  15. Project MEDSAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    During the winter term of 1991, two design courses at the University of Michigan worked on a joint project, MEDSAT. The two design teams consisted of the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Spacite System Design and Aerospace Engineering 483 (Aero 483) Aerospace System Design. In collaboration, they worked to produce MEDSAT, a satellite and scientific payload whose purpose was to monitor environmental conditions over Chiapas, Mexico. Information gained from the sensing, combined with regional data, would be used to determine the potential for malaria occurrence in that area. The responsibilities of AOSS 605 consisted of determining the remote sensing techniques, the data processing, and the method to translate the information into a usable output. Aero 483 developed the satellite configuration and the subsystems required for the satellite to accomplish its task. The MEDSAT project is an outgrowth of work already being accomplished by NASA's Biospheric and Disease Monitoring Program and Ames Research Center. NASA's work has been to develop remote sensing techniques to determine the abundance of disease carriers and now this project will place the techniques aboard a satellite. MEDSAT will be unique in its use of both a Synthetic Aperture Radar and visual/IR sensor to obtain comprehensive monitoring of the site. In order to create a highly feasible system, low cost was a high priority. To obtain this goal, a light satellite configuration launched by the Pegasus launch vehicle was used.

  16. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  17. Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    primary objectives of this project are: (i) explore the capabilities of a real-time ocean state- estimation and prediction system ; (ii) to assess how...source of barotropic-to-baroclinic tidal energy conversion. In the region around the islands, the internal tidal energy is as much as 50% of the...2011). As part of the NOAA-funded Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) effort, I lead the ocean modeling effort of the Pacific IOOS (PacIOOS

  18. Physics Parameterization for Seasonal Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    mixing processes, including interactions with clouds , within the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) suitable for extended range prediction...that includes not only boundary layer mixing, but mixing by shallow to mid- level convective clouds , as well as deep convection. The project will...prognostic cloud scheme and separate treatments of deep and shallow convection. We continue to work towards improved fidelity of our physics codes to

  19. Prediction and Prevention of Frostbite

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    sequelae of hand frostbite were present in 63 %. Prediction of frostbite: Individual risk factors of frostbite (95 % CI) are Raynaud’s phenomenon , (OR...before military service by e.g. a questionnaire assessing Raynaud’s phenomenon , hand vibration and current smoking enables to identify personnel that are...NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND

  20. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections.

  1. NORCAL Project: Phase I. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacMillan, Thomas F.

    Phase I of Northern California Cooperative Research Project on Student Withdrawals (NORCAL) examined withdrawal and continuing students in 23 colleges, evaluated the data, predicted potential withdrawals, and summarized findings. A questionnaire was used to help develop a model to predict attrition within the first term of enrollment. The junior…

  2. Surfactant EOR project evaluated

    SciTech Connect

    Holm, L.W.

    1984-07-16

    The Union Oil Co.'s Uniflood process has successfully mobilized and produced tertiary oil from a micellar-polymer pilot project on the Hegberg lease in the El Dorado field, Kansas. This half-completed EOR flood has recovered over 11% of the waterflood residual oil and is currently producing at an oil cut of 10%. Oil recovery has been limited by (1) the presence of gypsum in portions of the reservoir which adversly affects injected chemicals, (2) poor quality reservoir rock in one quadrant of the pilot, and (3) a substantial fluid drift (30 ft/year) which causes a portion of the injected chemicals to flow out of the pilot pattern. The El Dorado demonstration project is a joint experiment covered by a cost-sharing contract between the U.S. Department of Energy and Cities Service Company. It was proposed as a micellar-polymer process in a highly saline (10 wt % salts) reservoir that had been waterflooded to residual oil. Despite the extended project life, and indications that total recovery efficiency will be less than originally predicted, oil response in the Hegberg pattern is encouraging for application of the micellar-polymer process in high brine reservoirs.

  3. Project Exodus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Project Exodus is an in-depth study to identify and address the basic problems of a manned mission to Mars. The most important problems concern propulsion, life support, structure, trajectory, and finance. Exodus will employ a passenger ship, cargo ship, and landing craft for the journey to Mars. These three major components of the mission design are discussed separately. Within each component the design characteristics of structures, trajectory, and propulsion are addressed. The design characteristics of life support are mentioned only in those sections requiring it.

  4. Practical lessons from protein structure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Ginalski, Krzysztof; Grishin, Nick V.; Godzik, Adam; Rychlewski, Leszek

    2005-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to develop automated protein structure determination protocols, structural genomics projects are slow in generating fold assignments for complete proteomes, and spatial structures remain unknown for many protein families. Alternative cheap and fast methods to assign folds using prediction algorithms continue to provide valuable structural information for many proteins. The development of high-quality prediction methods has been boosted in the last years by objective community-wide assessment experiments. This paper gives an overview of the currently available practical approaches to protein structure prediction capable of generating accurate fold assignment. Recent advances in assessment of the prediction quality are also discussed. PMID:15805122

  5. Fracture Toughness Prediction for MWCNT Reinforced Ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Henager, Charles H.; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development of a micromechanics model to predict fracture toughness of multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) reinforced ceramic composites to guide future experimental work for this project. The modeling work described in this report includes (i) prediction of elastic properties, (ii) development of a mechanistic damage model accounting for matrix cracking to predict the composite nonlinear stress/strain response to tensile loading to failure, and (iii) application of this damage model in a modified boundary layer (MBL) analysis using ABAQUS to predict fracture toughness and crack resistance behavior (R-curves) for ceramic materials containing MWCNTs at various volume fractions.

  6. SIMBIOS Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project. The SIMBIOS Science Team Principal Investigators' (PIs) original contributions to this report are in chapters four and above. The purpose of these contributions is to describe the current research status of the SIMBIOS-NRA-96 funded research. The contributions are published as submitted, with the exception of minor edits to correct obvious grammatical or clerical errors.

  7. Project Exodus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bryant, Rodney (Compiler); Dillon, Jennifer (Compiler); Grewe, George (Compiler); Mcmorrow, Jim (Compiler); Melton, Craig (Compiler); Rainey, Gerald (Compiler); Rinko, John (Compiler); Singh, David (Compiler); Yen, Tzu-Liang (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    A design for a manned Mars mission, PROJECT EXODUS is presented. PROJECT EXODUS incorporates the design of a hypersonic waverider, cargo ship and NIMF (nuclear rocket using indigenous Martian fuel) shuttle lander to safely carry out a three to five month mission on the surface of Mars. The cargo ship transports return fuel, return engine, surface life support, NIMF shuttle, and the Mars base to low Mars orbit (LMO). The cargo ship is powered by a nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system which allows the cargo ship to execute a spiral trajectory to Mars. The waverider transports ten astronauts to Mars and back. It is launched from the Space Station with propulsion provided by a chemical engine and a delta velocity of 9 km/sec. The waverider performs an aero-gravity assist maneuver through the atmosphere of Venus to obtain a deflection angle and increase in delta velocity. Once the waverider and cargo ship have docked the astronauts will detach the landing cargo capsules and nuclear electric power plant and remotely pilot them to the surface. They will then descend to the surface aboard the NIMF shuttle. A dome base will be quickly constructed on the surface and the astronauts will conduct an exploratory mission for three to five months. They will return to Earth and dock with the Space Station using the waverider.

  8. Project Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dannenberg, K. K.; Henderson, A.; Lee, J.; Smith, G.; Stluka, E.

    1984-01-01

    PROJECT EXPLORER is a program that will fly student-developed experiments onboard the Space Shuttle in NASA's Get-Away Special (GAS) containers. The program is co-sponsored by the Alabama Space and Rocket Center, the Alabama-Mississippi Section of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Alabama A&M University and requires extensive support by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. A unique feature of this project will demonstrate transmissions to ground stations on amateur radio frequencies in English language. Experiments Nos. 1, 2, and 3 use the microgravity of space flight to study the solidification of lead-antimony and aluminum-copper alloys, the growth of potassium-tetracyanoplatinate hydrate crystals in an aqueous solution, and the germination of radish seeds. Flight results will be compared with Earth-based data. Experiment No. 4 features radio transmission and will also provide timing for the start of all other experiments. A microprocessor will obtain real-time data from all experiments as well as temperature and pressure measurements taken inside the canister. These data will be transmitted on previously announced amateur radio frequencies after they have been converted into the English language by a digitalker for general reception.

  9. PORTNUS Project

    SciTech Connect

    Loyal, Rebecca E.

    2015-07-14

    The objective of the Portunus Project is to create large, automated offshore ports that will the pace and scale of international trade. Additionally, these ports would increase the number of U.S. domestic trade vessels needed, as the imported goods would need to be transported from these offshore platforms to land-based ports such as Boston, Los Angeles, and Newark. Currently, domestic trade in the United States can only be conducted by vessels that abide by the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 – also referred to as the Jones Act. The Jones Act stipulates that vessels involved in domestic trade must be U.S. owned, U.S. built, and manned by a crew made up of U.S. citizens. The Portunus Project would increase the number of Jones Act vessels needed, which raises an interesting economic concern. Are Jones Act ships more expensive to operate than foreign vessels? Would it be more economically efficient to modify the Jones Act and allow vessels manned by foreign crews to engage in U.S. domestic trade? While opposition to altering the Jones Act is strong, it is important to consider the possibility that ship-owners who employ foreign crews will lobby for the chance to enter a growing domestic trade market. Their success would mean potential job loss for thousands of Americans currently employed in maritime trade.

  10. SISCAL project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, Richard P.; Fell, Frank

    2003-05-01

    The first "ocean colour" sensor, Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), was launched in 1978. Oceanographers learnt a lot from CZCS but it remained a purely scientific sensor. In recent years, a new generation of satellite-borne earth observation (EO) instruments has been brought into space. These instruments combine high spectral and spatial resolution with revisiting rates of the order of one per day. More instruments with further increased spatial, spectral and temporal resolution will be available within the next years. In the meantime, evaluation procedures taking advantage of the capabilities of the new instruments were derived, allowing the retrieval of ecologically important parameters with higher accuracy than before. Space agencies are now able to collect and to process satellite data in real time and to disseminate them via the Internet. It is therefore meanwhile possible to envisage using EO operationally. In principle, a significant demand for EO data products on terrestrial or marine ecosystems exists both with public authorities (environmental protection, emergency management, natural resources management, national parks, regional planning, etc) and private companies (tourist industry, insurance companies, water suppliers, etc). However, for a number of reasons, many data products that can be derived from the new instruments and methods have not yet left the scientific community towards public or private end users. It is the intention of the proposed SISCAL (Satellite-based Information System on Coastal Areas and Lakes) project to contribute to the closure of the existing gap between space agencies and research institutions on one side and end users on the other side. To do so, we intend to create a data processor that automatically derives and subsequently delivers over the Internet, in Near-Real-Time (NRT), a number of data products tailored to individual end user needs. The data products will be generated using a Geographical Information System (GIS

  11. Role of body mass index in the prediction of all cause mortality in over 62,000 men and women. The Italian RIFLE Pooling Project. Risk Factor and Life Expectancy

    PubMed Central

    Seccareccia, F.; Lanti, M.; Menotti, A.; Scanga, M.

    1998-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation of body mass index (BMI) to short-term mortality in a large Italian population sample. DESIGN: Within the Italian RIFLE pooling project, BMI was measured in 47 population samples made of 32,741 men and 30,305 women ages 20-69 years (young 20-44, mature 45-69). Data on mortality were collected for the next six years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age adjusted death rates in quintile classes of BMI and Cox proportional hazards models with six year all causes mortality as end point, BMI as covariate and age, smoking, systolic blood pressure as possible confounders were computed. Multivariate analysis was tested in all subjects and after the exclusion of smokers, early (first two years) deaths, and both categories. RESULTS: The univariate analysis failed to demonstrate in all cases a U or inverse J shaped relation. The Cox coefficients for the linear and quadratic terms of BMI proved significant for both young and mature women. The minimum of the curve was located at 27.0 (24.0, 30.0, 95% confidence limits, CL) and 31.8 (25.5, 38.2, 95% CL) units of BMI, for young and mature women respectively. Similar findings were obtained even when exclusion were performed. No relation was found for young men while for mature adult men only the model for all subjects retained significant curvilinear relation (minimum 29.3; 22.4, 36.2, 95% CL). CONCLUSION: These uncommon high values of BMI carrying the minimum risk of death seems to be in contrast with weight guidelines. A confirmation of these findings in other population groups might induce the consideration of changes in the suggested healthy values of BMI.   PMID:9604037

  12. Past Project Expo Sites

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page provides information for Project Expo sites that were featured at the LMOP Conferences in 2013 and 2014. Project Expo sites were featured as being interested in identifying project partners for the development of an LFG energy project.

  13. Project Grandmaster

    SciTech Connect

    2013-09-16

    The purpose of the Project Grandmaster Application is to allow individuals to opt-in and give the application access to data sources about their activities on social media sites. The application will cross-reference these data sources to build up a picture of each individual activities they discuss, either at present or in the past, and place this picture in reference to groups of all participants. The goal is to allow an individual to place themselves in the collective and to understand how their behavior patterns fit with the group and potentially find changes to make, such as activities they weren’t already aware of or different groups of interest they might want to follow.

  14. Ace Project as a Project Management Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Melinda; Guynes, Carl S.; Simard, Karine

    2010-01-01

    The primary challenge of project management is to achieve the project goals and objectives while adhering to project constraints--usually scope, quality, time and budget. The secondary challenge is to optimize the allocation and integration of resources necessary to meet pre-defined objectives. Project management software provides an active…

  15. Project Success in Agile Development Software Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farlik, John T.

    2016-01-01

    Project success has multiple definitions in the scholarly literature. Research has shown that some scholars and practitioners define project success as the completion of a project within schedule and within budget. Others consider a successful project as one in which the customer is satisfied with the product. This quantitative study was conducted…

  16. Project Information Packages Kit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    RMC Research Corp., Mountain View, CA.

    Presented are an overview booklet, a project selection guide, and six Project Information Packages (PIPs) for six exemplary projects serving underachieving students in grades k through 9. The overview booklet outlines the PIP projects and includes a chart of major project features. A project selection guide reviews the PIP history, PIP contents,…

  17. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    PubMed Central

    Shipp, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by

  18. Optimal Prediction of Clocks from Finite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhall, Charles A.

    2005-01-01

    This talk is about optimal linear prediction of processes with stationary dth increments, which serve as a class of models for random clock disturbances. The predictor is obtained by orthogonal projection on the affine space of estimators whose errors are invariant to additive polynomials of degree < d. The projection conditions give a system of linear equations thatcan be solved straightforwardly for the regression coefficients. If the data are equally spaced, then the predictor can be obtained by an extension of Levinson's algorithm.

  19. Radar-aeolian roughness project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, Ronald; Dobrovolskis, A.; Gaddis, L.; Iversen, J. D.; Lancaster, N.; Leach, Rodman N.; Rasnussen, K.; Saunders, S.; Vanzyl, J.; Wall, S.

    1991-01-01

    The objective is to establish an empirical relationship between measurements of radar, aeolian, and surface roughness on a variety of natural surfaces and to understand the underlying physical causes. This relationship will form the basis for developing a predictive equation to derive aeolian roughness from radar backscatter. Results are given from investigations carried out in 1989 on the principal elements of the project, with separate sections on field studies, radar data analysis, laboratory simulations, and development of theory for planetary applications.

  20. Project LASER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    NASA formally launched Project LASER (Learning About Science, Engineering and Research) in March 1990, a program designed to help teachers improve science and mathematics education and to provide 'hands on' experiences. It featured the first LASER Mobile Teacher Resource Center (MTRC), is designed to reach educators all over the nation. NASA hopes to operate several MTRCs with funds provided by private industry. The mobile unit is a 22-ton tractor-trailer stocked with NASA educational publications and outfitted with six work stations. Each work station, which can accommodate two teachers at a time, has a computer providing access to NASA Spacelink. Each also has video recorders and photocopy/photographic equipment for the teacher's use. MTRC is only one of the five major elements within LASER. The others are: a Space Technology Course, to promote integration of space science studies with traditional courses; the Volunteer Databank, in which NASA employees are encouraged to volunteer as tutors, instructors, etc; Mobile Discovery Laboratories that will carry simple laboratory equipment and computers to provide hands-on activities for students and demonstrations of classroom activities for teachers; and the Public Library Science Program which will present library based science and math programs.

  1. CUBES Project Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Kenneth T., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    CUBES stands for Creating Understanding and Broadening Education through Satellites. The goal of the project is to allow high school students to build a small satellite, or CubeSat. Merritt Island High School (MIHS) was selected to partner with NASA, and California Polytechnic State University (Cal-Poly}, to build a CubeSat. The objective of the mission is to collect flight data to better characterize maximum predicted environments inside the CubeSat launcher, Poly-Picosatellite Orbital Deplorer (P-POD), while attached to the launch vehicle. The MIHS CubeSat team will apply to the NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative, which provides opportunities for small satellite development teams to secure launch slots on upcoming expendable launch vehicle missions. The MIHS team is working to achieve a test launch, or proof of concept flight aboard a suborbital launch vehicle in early 2013.

  2. Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?

    SciTech Connect

    Dannevik, W P; Rotman, D A

    2005-11-14

    This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a prognostic equation for ensemble-mean two-point correlations, bypassing the detailed weather calculation. This work will expand our basic understanding of the theoretical limits of climate prediction and stimulate new experiments to perform with conventional climate models. It will furnish statistical estimates that are inaccessible with conventional climate simulations and likely will raise important new questions about the very nature of climate change and about how (and whether) climate change can be predicted. Solid progress on such issues is vital to the credibility of the science base for climate change research and will provide policymakers evaluating tradeoffs among energy technology options and their attendant environmental and economic consequences.

  3. Prediction of Gas Lubricated Foil Journal Bearing Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpino, Marc; Talmage, Gita

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes the progress in the first eight months of the project. The objectives of this research project are to theoretically predict the steady operating conditions and the rotor dynamic coefficients of gas foil journal bearings. The project is currently on or ahead of schedule with the development of a finite element code that predicts steady bearing performance characteristics such as film thickness, pressure, load, and drag. Graphical results for a typical bearing are presented in the report. Project plans for the next year are discussed.

  4. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guangsheng; Dai, Ning; Yang, Jianqing; Wang, Jinxing

    2016-10-01

    Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i) comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii) annual water resources assessment, and (iii) industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP) has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  5. Collaborative Physical Chemistry Projects Involving Computational Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whisnant, David M.; Howe, Jerry J.; Lever, Lisa S.

    2000-02-01

    The physical chemistry classes from three colleges have collaborated on two computational chemistry projects using Quantum CAChe 3.0 and Gaussian 94W running on Pentium II PCs. Online communication by email and the World Wide Web was an important part of the collaboration. In the first project, students used molecular modeling to predict benzene derivatives that might be possible hair dyes. They used PM3 and ZINDO calculations to predict the electronic spectra of the molecules and tested the predicted spectra by comparing some with experimental measurements. They also did literature searches for real hair dyes and possible health effects. In the final phase of the project they proposed a synthetic pathway for one compound. In the second project the students were asked to predict which isomer of a small carbon cluster (C3, C4, or C5) was responsible for a series of IR lines observed in the spectrum of a carbon star. After preliminary PM3 calculations, they used ab initio calculations at the HF/6-31G(d) and MP2/6-31G(d) level to model the molecules and predict their vibrational frequencies and rotational constants. A comparison of the predictions with the experimental spectra suggested that the linear isomer of the C5 molecule was responsible for the lines.

  6. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  7. RESOLVE Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Ray; Coan, Mary; Cryderman, Kate; Captain, Janine

    2013-01-01

    The RESOLVE project is a lunar prospecting mission whose primary goal is to characterize water and other volatiles in lunar regolith. The Lunar Advanced Volatiles Analysis (LAVA) subsystem is comprised of a fluid subsystem that transports flow to the gas chromatograph - mass spectrometer (GC-MS) instruments that characterize volatiles and the Water Droplet Demonstration (WDD) that will capture and display water condensation in the gas stream. The LAVA Engineering Test Unit (ETU) is undergoing risk reduction testing this summer and fall within a vacuum chamber to understand and characterize component and integrated system performance. Testing of line heaters, printed circuit heaters, pressure transducers, temperature sensors, regulators, and valves in atmospheric and vacuum environments was done. Test procedures were developed to guide experimental tests and test reports to analyze and draw conclusions from the data. In addition, knowledge and experience was gained with preparing a vacuum chamber with fluid and electrical connections. Further testing will include integrated testing of the fluid subsystem with the gas supply system, near-infrared spectrometer, WDD, Sample Delivery System, and GC-MS in the vacuum chamber. This testing will provide hands-on exposure to a flight forward spaceflight subsystem, the processes associated with testing equipment in a vacuum chamber, and experience working in a laboratory setting. Examples of specific analysis conducted include: pneumatic analysis to calculate the WDD's efficiency at extracting water vapor from the gas stream to form condensation; thermal analysis of the conduction and radiation along a line connecting two thermal masses; and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) heater control analysis. Since LAVA is a scientific subsystem, the near-infrared spectrometer and GC-MS instruments will be tested during the ETU testing phase.

  8. Geothermal Reservoir Technology Research Program: Abstracts of selected research projects

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, M.J.

    1993-03-01

    Research projects are described in the following areas: geothermal exploration, mapping reservoir properties and reservoir monitoring, and well testing, simulation, and predicting reservoir performance. The objectives, technical approach, and project status of each project are presented. The background, research results, and future plans for each project are discussed. The names, addresses, and telephone and telefax numbers are given for the DOE program manager and the principal investigators. (MHR)

  9. Regulatory Processes Necessary to Commercialize A Seizure Prediction Technology: Promises and Pitfalls of Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study);

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    system incorporating algorithms for processing biosignals to predict/detect seizures. 1. Introduction The successful operation of medical device...Commercialize A Seizure Prediction Technology Promises and Pitfalls of Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study); Auke Poutsma... Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study); Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Project Number

  10. RESOLVE Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Ray O.

    2012-01-01

    The RESOLVE project is a lunar prospecting mission whose primary goal is to characterize water and other volatiles in lunar regolith. The Lunar Advanced Volatiles Analysis (LAVA) subsystem is comprised of a fluid subsystem that transports flow to the gas chromatograph- mass spectrometer (GC-MS) instruments that characterize volatiles and the Water Droplet Demonstration (WDD) that will capture and display water condensation in the gas stream. The LAVA Engineering Test Unit (ETU) is undergoing risk reduction testing this summer and fall within a vacuum chamber to understand and characterize C!Jmponent and integrated system performance. Ray will be assisting with component testing of line heaters, printed circuit heaters, pressure transducers, temperature sensors, regulators, and valves in atmospheric and vacuum environments. He will be developing procedures to guide these tests and test reports to analyze and draw conclusions from the data. In addition, he will gain experience with preparing a vacuum chamber with fluid and electrical connections. Further testing will include integrated testing of the fluid subsystem with the gas supply system, near-infrared spectrometer, WDD, Sample Delivery System, and GC-MS in the vacuum chamber. This testing will provide hands-on exposure to a flight forward spaceflight subsystem, the processes associated with testing equipment in a vacuum chamber, and experience working in a laboratory setting. Examples of specific analysis Ray will conduct include: pneumatic analysis to calculate the WOO's efficiency at extracting water vapor from the gas stream to form condensation; thermal analysis of the conduction and radiation along a line connecting two thermal masses; and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) heater control analysis. In this Research and Technology environment, Ray will be asked to problem solve real-time as issues arise. Since LAVA is a scientific subsystem, Ray will be utilizing his chemical engineering background to

  11. Project summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    California Polytechnic State University's design project for the 1990-91 school year was the design of a close air support aircraft. There were eight design groups that participated and were given requests for proposals. These proposals contained mission specifications, particular performance and payload requirements, as well as the main design drivers. The mission specifications called for a single pilot weighing 225 lb with equipment. The design mission profile consisted of the following: (1) warm-up, taxi, take off, and accelerate to cruise speed; (2) dash at sea level at 500 knots to a point 250 nmi from take off; (3) combat phase, requiring two combat passes at 450 knots that each consist of a 360 deg turn and an energy increase of 4000 ft. - at each pass, half of air-to-surface ordnance is released; (4) dash at sea level at 500 knots 250 nmi back to base; and (5) land with 20 min of reserve fuel. The request for proposal also specified the following performance requirements with 50 percent internal fuel and standard stores: (1) the aircraft must be able to accelerate from Mach 0.3 to 0.5 at sea level in less than 20 sec; (2) required turn rates are 4.5 sustained g at 450 knots at sea level; (3) the aircraft must have a reattack time of 25 sec or less (reattack time was defined as the time between the first and second weapon drops); (4) the aircraft is allowed a maximum take off and landing ground roll of 2000 ft. The payload requirements were 20 Mk 82 general-purpose free-fall bombs and racks; 1 GAU-8A 30-mm cannon with 1350 rounds; and 2 AIM-9L Sidewinder missiles and racks. The main design drivers expressed in the request for proposal were that the aircraft should be survivable and maintainable. It must be able to operate in remote areas with little or no maintenance. Simplicity was considered the most important factor in achieving the former goal. In addition, the aircraft must be low cost both in acquisition and operation. The summaries of the aircraft

  12. The Materials Genome Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aourag, H.

    2008-09-01

    In the past, the search for new and improved materials was characterized mostly by the use of empirical, trial- and-error methods. This picture of materials science has been changing as the knowledge and understanding of fundamental processes governing a material's properties and performance (namely, composition, structure, history, and environment) have increased. In a number of cases, it is now possible to predict a material's properties before it has even been manufactured thus greatly reducing the time spent on testing and development. The objective of modern materials science is to tailor a material (starting with its chemical composition, constituent phases, and microstructure) in order to obtain a desired set of properties suitable for a given application. In the short term, the traditional "empirical" methods for developing new materials will be complemented to a greater degree by theoretical predictions. In some areas, computer simulation is already used by industry to weed out costly or improbable synthesis routes. Can novel materials with optimized properties be designed by computers? Advances in modelling methods at the atomic level coupled with rapid increases in computer capabilities over the last decade have led scientists to answer this question with a resounding "yes'. The ability to design new materials from quantum mechanical principles with computers is currently one of the fastest growing and most exciting areas of theoretical research in the world. The methods allow scientists to evaluate and prescreen new materials "in silico" (in vitro), rather than through time consuming experimentation. The Materials Genome Project is to pursue the theory of large scale modeling as well as powerful methods to construct new materials, with optimized properties. Indeed, it is the intimate synergy between our ability to predict accurately from quantum theory how atoms can be assembled to form new materials and our capacity to synthesize novel materials atom

  13. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

    PubMed Central

    Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2016-01-01

    We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

  14. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections.

    PubMed

    Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-12-01

    We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

  15. Protein Structure Prediction Using String Kernels

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-03

    Prediction using String Kernels 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER...consists of 4352 sequences from SCOP version 1.53 extracted from the Astral database, grouped into families and superfamilies. The dataset is processed

  16. Managing Projects for Change: Contextualised Project Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tynan, Belinda; Adlington, Rachael; Stewart, Cherry; Vale, Deborah; Sims, Rod; Shanahan, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This paper will detail three projects which focussed on enhancing online learning at a large Australian distance education University within a School of Business, School of Health and School of Education. Each project had special funding and took quite distinctive project management approaches, which reflect the desire to embed innovation and…

  17. Project Panama: An International Service Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aydlett, Lydia; Randolph, Mickey; Wells, Gayle

    2010-01-01

    Participation in service learning projects is a growing phenomenon at universities and colleges. Research indicates service projects are beneficial for college students and adults. There is little data investigating developmental differences in how younger versus older participants perceive the service learning process. In this project, older…

  18. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

  19. Predicting the Orbits of Satellites with a TI-85 Calculator.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papay, Kate; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Describes a project that predicts the orbits of satellites using a TI-85 calculator. Enables students to achieve a richer understanding of longitude, latitude, time zones, orbital mechanics of satellites, and the terms associated with satellite tracking. (JRH)

  20. Elementary School Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Learning By Design, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Highlights elementary school construction projects that have won the Learning By Design Awards for 2001. Projects covered involve new school construction; and renovation, additions, and restoration. (GR)

  1. Predicting evolutionary dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balazsi, Gabor

    We developed an ordinary differential equation-based model to predict the evolutionary dynamics of yeast cells carrying a synthetic gene circuit. The predicted aspects included the speed at which the ancestral genotype disappears from the population; as well as the types of mutant alleles that establish in each environmental condition. We validated these predictions by experimental evolution. The agreement between our predictions and experimental findings suggests that cellular and population fitness landscapes can be useful to predict short-term evolution.

  2. PREDICT: Satellite tracking and orbital prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magliacane, John A.

    2011-12-01

    PREDICT is an open-source, multi-user satellite tracking and orbital prediction program written under the Linux operating system. PREDICT provides real-time satellite tracking and orbital prediction information to users and client applications through: the system console the command line a network socket the generation of audio speechData such as a spacecraft's sub-satellite point, azimuth and elevation headings, Doppler shift, path loss, slant range, orbital altitude, orbital velocity, footprint diameter, orbital phase (mean anomaly), squint angle, eclipse depth, the time and date of the next AOS (or LOS of the current pass), orbit number, and sunlight and visibility information are provided on a real-time basis. PREDICT can also track (or predict the position of) the Sun and Moon. PREDICT has the ability to control AZ/EL antenna rotators to maintain accurate orientation in the direction of communication satellites. As an aid in locating and tracking satellites through optical means, PREDICT can articulate tracking coordinates and visibility information as plain speech.

  3. Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armour, Kyle C.

    2016-10-01

    Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.

  4. EDSP Prioritization: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) (SOT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been te...

  5. Socio-Economic Status and Occupational Status Projections of Southern Youth, By Race and Sex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lever, Michael F.; Kuvlesky, William P.

    The purpose of this study was to examine selected occupational status projections and the relationship between these projections and socioeconomic status (SES). Occupational status projections referred to predictive statements about the future lifetime job of the respondents. The occupational status projections included in the analysis were: (1)…

  6. Predicting Precipitation in Darwin: An Experiment with Markov Chains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boncek, John; Harden, Sig

    2009-01-01

    As teachers of first-year college mathematics and science students, the authors are constantly on the lookout for simple classroom exercises that improve their students' analytical and computational skills. In this article, the authors outline a project entitled "Predicting Precipitation in Darwin." In this project, students: (1) analyze…

  7. Project Lodestar Special Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Peggy, Ed.

    1981-01-01

    The Association of American Colleges' (AAC) Project Lodestar is addressed in an article and descriptions of the pilot phase of the project at 13 institutions. In "Project Lodestar: Realistically Assessing the Future," Peggy Brown provides an overview of the project, which is designed to help colleges and universities in assessment of…

  8. Project Follow Through.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Springfield. Dept. for Exceptional Children.

    The four Follow Through projects in Illinois are described and evaluated. These projects involve approximately 1,450 children in K-3 in Mounds, East Saint Louis, Waukegan, and Chicago. The Chicago project is subdivided into three individual projects and is trying three experimental programs. Emphasis is given to the nature of the environmental…

  9. Determinants of project success

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, D. C.; Baker, B. N.; Fisher, D.

    1974-01-01

    The interactions of numerous project characteristics, with particular reference to project performance, were studied. Determinants of success are identified along with the accompanying implications for client organization, parent organization, project organization, and future research. Variables are selected which are found to have the greatest impact on project outcome, and the methodology and analytic techniques to be employed in identification of those variables are discussed.

  10. NCMS ESS 2000 Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gibbel, Mark; Bellamy, Marvin; DeSantis, Charlie; Hess, John; Pattok, Tracy; Quintero, Andrew; Silver, R.

    1996-01-01

    ESS 2000 has the vision of enhancing the knowledge necessary to implement cost-effective, leading-edge ESS technologies and procedures in order to increase U.S. electronics industry competitiveness. This paper defines EES and discusses the factors driving the project, the objectives of the project, its participants, the three phases of the project, the technologies involved, and project deliverables.

  11. eProject Builder

    SciTech Connect

    2014-06-01

    eProject Builder enables Energy Services Companies (ESCOs) and their contracting agencies to: 1. upload and track project-level Information 2. generate basic project reports required by local, state, and/or federal agencies 3. benchmark new Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) projects against historical data

  12. Korea's School Grounds Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Joohun

    2003-01-01

    This article describes two projects which Korea has undertaken to improve its school grounds: (1) the Green School Project; and (2) the School Forest Pilot Project. The Korean Ministry of Education and Human Resources Development (MOE&HRI) recently launched the Green School Project centred on existing urban schools with poor outdoor…

  13. Earth System Science Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutherford, Sandra; Coffman, Margaret

    2004-01-01

    For several decades, science teachers have used bottles for classroom projects designed to teach students about biology. Bottle projects do not have to just focus on biology, however. These projects can also be used to engage students in Earth science topics. This article describes the Earth System Science Project, which was adapted and developed…

  14. Current affairs in earthquake prediction in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2015-12-01

    As of mid-2014, the main organizations of the earthquake (EQ hereafter) prediction program, including the Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ), the MEXT Headquarters for EQ Research Promotion, hold the official position that they neither can nor want to make any short-term prediction. It is an extraordinary stance of responsible authorities when the nation, after the devastating 2011 M9 Tohoku EQ, most urgently needs whatever information that may exist on forthcoming EQs. Japan's national project for EQ prediction started in 1965, but it has made no success. The main reason for no success is the failure to capture precursors. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this stance has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. This paper tries to explain how this situation came about and suggest that it may in fact be a legitimate one which should have come a long time ago. Actually, substantial positive changes are taking place now. Some promising signs are arising even from cooperation of researchers with private sectors and there is a move to establish an "EQ Prediction Society of Japan". From now on, maintaining the high scientific standards in EQ prediction will be of crucial importance.

  15. Predictive modeling of complications.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  16. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  17. Guidelines for Project Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ben-Arieh, David

    2001-01-01

    Project management is an important part of the professional activities at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Project management is the means by which many of the operations at KSC take shape. Moreover, projects at KSC are implemented in a variety of ways in different organizations. The official guidelines for project management are provided by NASA headquarters and are quite general. The project reported herein deals with developing practical and detailed project management guidelines in support of the project managers. This report summarizes the current project management effort in the Process Management Division and presents a new modeling approach of project management developed by the author. The report also presents the Project Management Guidelines developed during the summer.

  18. Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients’ respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. Methods: An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Results: Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p < 0.001) and 29% (p < 0.001) for abdominal wall and diaphragm respiratory motion, respectively. Conclusions: This study was the first to demonstrate that the reduction of respiratory irregularities due to the implementation of AV biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion

  19. Fusion Simulation Project Workshop Report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kritz, Arnold; Keyes, David

    2009-03-01

    The mission of the Fusion Simulation Project is to develop a predictive capability for the integrated modeling of magnetically confined plasmas. This FSP report adds to the previous activities that defined an approach to integrated modeling in magnetic fusion. These previous activities included a Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee panel that was charged to study integrated simulation in 2002. The report of that panel [Journal of Fusion Energy 20, 135 (2001)] recommended the prompt initiation of a Fusion Simulation Project. In 2003, the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences formed a steering committee that developed a project vision, roadmap, and governance concepts [Journal of Fusion Energy 23, 1 (2004)]. The current FSP planning effort involved 46 physicists, applied mathematicians and computer scientists, from 21 institutions, formed into four panels and a coordinating committee. These panels were constituted to consider: Status of Physics Components, Required Computational and Applied Mathematics Tools, Integration and Management of Code Components, and Project Structure and Management. The ideas, reported here, are the products of these panels, working together over several months and culminating in a 3-day workshop in May 2007.

  20. The EMCC / DARPA Massively Parallel Electromagnetic Scattering Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woo, Alex C.; Hill, Kueichien C.

    1996-01-01

    The Electromagnetic Code Consortium (EMCC) was sponsored by the Advanced Research Program Agency (ARPA) to demonstrate the effectiveness of massively parallel computing in large scale radar signature predictions. The EMCC/ARPA project consisted of three parts.

  1. Signal Prediction With Input Identification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Chen, Ya-Chin

    1999-01-01

    A novel coding technique is presented for signal prediction with applications including speech coding, system identification, and estimation of input excitation. The approach is based on the blind equalization method for speech signal processing in conjunction with the geometric subspace projection theory to formulate the basic prediction equation. The speech-coding problem is often divided into two parts, a linear prediction model and excitation input. The parameter coefficients of the linear predictor and the input excitation are solved simultaneously and recursively by a conventional recursive least-squares algorithm. The excitation input is computed by coding all possible outcomes into a binary codebook. The coefficients of the linear predictor and excitation, and the index of the codebook can then be used to represent the signal. In addition, a variable-frame concept is proposed to block the same excitation signal in sequence in order to reduce the storage size and increase the transmission rate. The results of this work can be easily extended to the problem of disturbance identification. The basic principles are outlined in this report and differences from other existing methods are discussed. Simulations are included to demonstrate the proposed method.

  2. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  3. Improving Software Engineering on NASA Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crumbley, Tim; Kelly, John C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Engineering Initiative: Reduces risk of software failure -Increases mission safety. More predictable software cost estimates and delivery schedules. Smarter buyer of contracted out software. More defects found and removed earlier. Reduces duplication of efforts between projects. Increases ability to meet the challenges of evolving software technology.

  4. Numerical tokamak turbulence project (OFES grand challenge)

    SciTech Connect

    Beer, M; Cohen, B I; Crotinger, J; Dawson, J; Decyk, V; Dimits, A M; Dorland, W D; Hammett, G W; Kerbel, G D; Leboeuf, J N; Lee, W W; Lin, Z; Nevins, W M; Reynders, J; Shumaker, D E; Smith, S; Sydora, R; Waltz, R E; Williams, T

    1999-08-27

    The primary research objective of the Numerical Tokamak Turbulence Project (NTTP) is to develop a predictive ability in modeling turbulent transport due to drift-type instabilities in the core of tokamak fusion experiments, through the use of three-dimensional kinetic and fluid simulations and the derivation of reduced models.

  5. Project Echo: Antenna Steering System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klahn, R.; Norton, J. A.; Githens, J. A.

    1961-01-01

    The Project Echo communications experiment employed large, steerable,transmitting and receiving antennas at the ground terminals. It was necessary that these highly directional antennas be continuously and accurately pointed at the passing satellite. This paper describes a new type of special purpose data converter for directing narrow-beam communication antennas on the basis of predicted information. The system is capable of converting digital input data into real-time analog voltage commands with a dynamic accuracy of +/- 0.05 degree, which meets the requirements of the present antennas.

  6. Oceanographic studies during Project GALE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanton, Jackson O.; Lee, Tom N.; Atkinson, Larry p.; Bane, John M.; Riordan, A.; Raman, S.

    The Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) was a multi-institutional project sponsored primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF), with additional support from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR). The primary objectives were to describe the airflow, mass, and moisture fields during the evolution of U.S. East Coast winter storms, with special emphasis on mesoscale processes;to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the formation and rapid development of East Coast storms; andto develop and test numerical models for the prediction of East Coast cyclones.

  7. The lightcraft project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Messitt, Don G.; Myrabo, Leik N.

    1991-01-01

    Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute has been developing a transatmospheric 'Lightcraft' technology which uses beamed laser energy to propel advanced shuttle craft to orbit. In the past several years, Rensselaer students have analyzed the unique combined-cycle Lightcraft engine, designed a small unmanned Lightcraft Technology Demonstrator, and conceptualized larger manned Lightcraft - to name just a few of the interrelated design projects. The 1990-91 class carried out preliminary and detailed design efforts for a one-person 'Mercury' Lightcraft, using computer-aided design and finite-element structural modeling techniques. In addition, they began construction of a 2.6 m-diameter, full-scale engineering prototype mockup. The mockup will be equipped with three robotic legs that 'kneel' for passenger entry and exit. More importantly, the articulated tripod gear is crucial for accurately pointing at, and tracking the laser relay mirrors, a maneuver that must be performed just prior to liftoff. Also accomplished were further design improvements on a 6-inch-diameter Lightcraft model (for testing in RPI's hypersonic tunnel), and new laser propulsion experiments. The resultant experimental data will be used to calibrate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) codes and analytical laser propulsion models that can simulate vehicle/engine flight conditions along a transatmospheric boost trajectory. These efforts will enable the prediction of distributed aerodynamic and thruster loads over the entire full-scale spacecraft.

  8. Science in 60 – Tabletop Fire Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Cary, Lyle

    2016-06-02

    At the Interagency Fire Center at Los Alamos National Laboratory, experts rely on the state-of-the-art Simtable to help them predict the unpredictable. With algorithms that include camera-based object-tracking and projection developed by the Laboratory, the emergency operations team can simulate a wildland fire spreading across any terrain. The table system, developed and marketed by Simtable, a Santa Fe, N.M., company, takes into account weather, vegetation and fuel conditions. The project also received funding from the LANS Venture Acceleration Fund to improve the user interface.

  9. The Yangtze-Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subklew, Günter; Ulrich, Julia; Fürst, Leander; Höltkemeier, Agnes

    2010-05-01

    then encounter considerably improved climatic conditions with higher temperatures during their physiologically active season in the summer months. This reversal of the flood pulse in the course of the year will exert an enormous influence on the fauna and flora and the associated processes. Other parameters resulting from the management of the reservoir are the sediment deposits and their varying extents in the different zones of the WFZ. For example, the different degrees of compaction of the sediment of the river bank will largely determine the exchange of oxygen, nutrients and metabolites between the plants and the water body and thus the major ecosystem functions. The locally different thicknesses of the sediment body will be decisive for the emergence of plant shoots through the sediment. In areas of high flow rates, in contrast, habitats will be established that are strongly characterized by the dynamics of the pebbles and boulders. The Three Gorges Project will thus bring about a significant change in habitat conditions for vegetation in the WFZ whose consequences cannot yet be predicted with any certainty. This also concerns the potential and long-term impacts of changed vegetation on the local population, who exploit the plant resources, and also on tourism and on the hydroregime and the sedimentation regime in the reservoir. Landslides and rock falls are the major geological events in the Three Gorges region. The mud and debris avalanches formed during such landslips represent a danger both for areas of settlement and also for land used industrially and agriculturally, as well as for infrastructure facilities, and may also considerably obstruct navigation. Furthermore, the analogous mass movements are one of the reasons for the silting up of the Yangtze and many of its tributaries. The region of the Three Gorges contains rapidly growing urban centres that will receive further impulses for growth from the dam project. The fact that the Chongqing conurbation

  10. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    By definition, an extreme event is rare one in a series of kindred phenomena. Usually (e.g. in Geophysics), it implies investigating a small sample of case-histories with a help of delicate statistical methods and data of different quality, collected in various conditions. Many extreme events are clustered (far from independent) and follow fractal or some other "strange" distribution (far from uniform). Evidently, such an "unusual" situation complicates search and definition of reliable precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. Making forecast/prediction claims reliable and quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" forecast/prediction outcomes, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous test of the candidate method. The set of errors ("success/failure" scores and space-time measure of alarms) and other information obtained in such a control test supplies us with data necessary to judge the candidate's potential as a forecast/prediction tool and, eventually, to find its improvements. This is to be done first in comparison against random guessing, which results confidence (measured in terms of statistical significance). Note that an application of the forecast/prediction tools could be very different in cases of different natural hazards, costs and benefits that determine risks, and, therefore, requires determination of different optimal strategies minimizing reliable estimates of realistic levels of accepted losses. In their turn case specific costs and benefits may suggest a modification of the forecast/prediction tools for a more adequate "optimal" application. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to the state-of-the-art understanding of the complexity and non-linear dynamics of the Earth as a Physical System and pattern recognition approaches applied to available geophysical evidences, specifically, when intending to predict

  11. Uncertainty in QSAR predictions.

    PubMed

    Sahlin, Ullrika

    2013-03-01

    It is relevant to consider uncertainty in individual predictions when quantitative structure-activity (or property) relationships (QSARs) are used to support decisions of high societal concern. Successful communication of uncertainty in the integration of QSARs in chemical safety assessment under the EU Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) system can be facilitated by a common understanding of how to define, characterise, assess and evaluate uncertainty in QSAR predictions. A QSAR prediction is, compared to experimental estimates, subject to added uncertainty that comes from the use of a model instead of empirically-based estimates. A framework is provided to aid the distinction between different types of uncertainty in a QSAR prediction: quantitative, i.e. for regressions related to the error in a prediction and characterised by a predictive distribution; and qualitative, by expressing our confidence in the model for predicting a particular compound based on a quantitative measure of predictive reliability. It is possible to assess a quantitative (i.e. probabilistic) predictive distribution, given the supervised learning algorithm, the underlying QSAR data, a probability model for uncertainty and a statistical principle for inference. The integration of QSARs into risk assessment may be facilitated by the inclusion of the assessment of predictive error and predictive reliability into the "unambiguous algorithm", as outlined in the second OECD principle.

  12. Predicting discovery rates of genomic features.

    PubMed

    Gravel, Simon

    2014-06-01

    Successful sequencing experiments require judicious sample selection. However, this selection must often be performed on the basis of limited preliminary data. Predicting the statistical properties of the final sample based on preliminary data can be challenging, because numerous uncertain model assumptions may be involved. Here, we ask whether we can predict "omics" variation across many samples by sequencing only a fraction of them. In the infinite-genome limit, we find that a pilot study sequencing 5% of a population is sufficient to predict the number of genetic variants in the entire population within 6% of the correct value, using an estimator agnostic to demography, selection, or population structure. To reach similar accuracy in a finite genome with millions of polymorphisms, the pilot study would require ∼15% of the population. We present computationally efficient jackknife and linear programming methods that exhibit substantially less bias than the state of the art when applied to simulated data and subsampled 1000 Genomes Project data. Extrapolating based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Exome Sequencing Project data, we predict that 7.2% of sites in the capture region would be variable in a sample of 50,000 African Americans and 8.8% in a European sample of equal size. Finally, we show how the linear programming method can also predict discovery rates of various genomic features, such as the number of transcription factor binding sites across different cell types.

  13. Analysis of Variables: Predicting Sophomore Persistence Using Logistic Regression Analysis at the University of South Florida

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Thomas E.; Herreid, Charlene H.

    2009-01-01

    This is the fifth in a series of articles describing an attrition prediction and intervention project at the University of South Florida (USF) in Tampa. The project was originally presented in the 83(2) issue (Miller 2007). The statistical model for predicting attrition was described in the 83(3) issue (Miller and Herreid 2008). The methods and…

  14. Predicting RNA structure: advances and limitations.

    PubMed

    Hofacker, Ivo L; Lorenz, Ronny

    2014-01-01

    RNA secondary structures can be predicted using efficient algorithms. A widely used software package implementing a large number of computational methods is the ViennaRNA Package. This chapter describes how to use programs from the ViennaRNA Package to perform common tasks such as prediction of minimum free-energy structures, suboptimal structures, or base pairing probabilities, and generating secondary structure plots with reliability annotation. Moreover, we present recent methods to assess the folding kinetics of an RNA via 2D projections of the energy landscape, identification of local minima and energy barriers, or simulation of RNA folding as a Markov process.

  15. Predictability of Brayton electric power system performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klann, J. L.; Hettel, H. J.

    1972-01-01

    Data from the first tests of the 2- to 15-kilowatt space power system in a vacuum chamber were compared with predictions of both a pretest analysis and a modified version of that analysis. The pretest analysis predicted test results with differences of no more than 9 percent of the largest measured value for each quantity. The modified analysis correlated measurements. Differences in conversion efficiency and power output were no greater than plus or minus 2.5 percent. This modified analysis was used to project space performance maps for the current test system.

  16. Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haun, J. R.

    1976-01-01

    One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

  17. Breuner Marsh Restoration Project

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information about the San Francisco Bay Water Quality Project (SFBWQP) Breuner Marsh Restoration Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  18. CHP Project Development

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Access information and tools to support the CHP project development process, including identifying if your facility is a good fit for CHP, the steps involved with CHP project development, and policies and incentives supportive of CHP.

  19. Project Matching Initiative

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Green Power Partnership's Project Matching initiative works to connect green power users with new, not-yet-built renewable energy projects that may align with their energy, environmental, and financial objectives.

  20. The Alzheimer's Project

    MedlinePlus

    ... Navigation Bar Home Current Issue Past Issues The Alzheimer's Project Past Issues / Spring 2009 Table of Contents ... of this page please turn Javascript on. The Alzheimer's Project A 4-Part Documentary Series Starting May ...

  1. Venezuela's Bolivarian Schools Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diaz, Maria Magnolia Santamaria

    2002-01-01

    Discusses efforts by the Venezuelan government to improve the nation's school infrastructure through the Bolivarian Schools Project administered by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport. The project set educational principles which are guiding current school building efforts. (EV)

  2. Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.

    2016-11-01

    This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to

  3. Project ArchimedeZ

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-18

    Project ArchimedeZ Think Tank Group # 1 SOS 15D 18 May 2015 Maj Chanel Burnell Capt Thomas Bryant Capt Andrew Chema Capt Richard... Project ArchimedeZ 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT...challenge, Think Tank Group 1 developed Project ArchimedeZ, an incentive-focused, learner-centric construct that utilizes existing distant learning resources

  4. GHPsRUS Project

    SciTech Connect

    Battocletti, Liz

    2013-07-09

    The GHPsRUS Project's full name is "Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal Heat Pump Deployment." The dataset contains employment and installation price data collected by four economic surveys: (1)GHPsRUS Project Manufacturer & OEM Survey, (2) GHPsRUS Project Geothermal Loop Survey, (3) GHPsRUS Project Mechanical Equipment Installation Survey, and (4) GHPsRUS Geothermal Heat Pump Industry Survey

  5. Mars solar conjunction prediction modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, Vineet K.; Kumar, Jai; Kulshrestha, Shivali; Kushvah, Badam Singh

    2016-01-01

    During the Mars solar conjunction, telecommunication and tracking between the spacecraft and the Earth degrades significantly. The radio signal degradation depends on the angular separation between the Sun, Earth and probe (SEP), the signal frequency band and the solar activity. All radiometric tracking data types display increased noise and signatures for smaller SEP angles. Due to scintillation, telemetry frame errors increase significantly when solar elongation becomes small enough. This degradation in telemetry data return starts at solar elongation angles of around 5° at S-band, around 2° at X-band and about 1° at Ka-band. This paper presents a mathematical model for predicting Mars superior solar conjunction for any Mars orbiting spacecraft. The described model is simulated for the Mars Orbiter Mission which experienced Mars solar conjunction during May-July 2015. Such a model may be useful to flight projects and design engineers in the planning of Mars solar conjunction operational scenarios.

  6. Progress on the DPASS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galkin, Sergei A.; Bogatu, I. N.; Svidzinski, V. A.

    2015-11-01

    A novel project to develop Disruption Prediction And Simulation Suite (DPASS) of comprehensive computational tools to predict, model, and analyze disruption events in tokamaks has been recently started at FAR-TECH Inc. DPASS will eventually address the following aspects of the disruption problem: MHD, plasma edge dynamics, plasma-wall interaction, generation and losses of runaway electrons. DPASS uses the 3-D Disruption Simulation Code (DSC-3D) as a core tool and will have a modular structure. DSC is a one fluid non-linear, time-dependent 3D MHD code to simulate dynamics of tokamak plasma surrounded by pure vacuum B-field in the real geometry of a conducting tokamak vessel. DSC utilizes the adaptive meshless technique with adaptation to the moving plasma boundary, with accurate magnetic flux conservation and resolution of the plasma surface current. DSC has also an option to neglect the plasma inertia to eliminate fast magnetosonic scale. This option can be turned on/off as needed. During Phase I of the project, two modules will be developed: the computational module for modeling the massive gas injection and main plasma respond; and the module for nanoparticle plasma jet injection as an innovative disruption mitigation scheme. We will report on this development progress. Work is supported by the US DOE SBIR grant # DE-SC0013727.

  7. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  8. THE ATLANTA SUPERSITE PROJECT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Atlanta Supersites project is the first of two Supersites projects to be established during Phase I of EPA's Supersites Program; Phase 11 is being established through a Request for Assistance. The other initial project is in Fresno, California. The Supersites Program is par...

  9. Projection: A Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    Sigmund Freud and his associates did much clinical work with the dynamic of projection, especially with regard to paranoid symptoms and syndromes. Much experimental work has also been done with projection. Sears evaluated the results of some of those studies. Murstein and Pryer sub-classified projection and reviewed typical studies. The…

  10. The Eggen Card Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvis, G.

    2014-06-01

    (Abstract only) Olin Eggen, noted astronomer (1919-1998), left to us all his raw observation records recorded on 3x5 cards. This project is to make all this data available as an online resource. History and progress of the project will be presented. Project details available at: https://sites.google.com/site/eggencards/home.

  11. System Alternatives Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petrait, James A.

    1977-01-01

    The Systems Alternatives Project is an attempt to develop open classroom alternatives within a modular scheduling system. Biology students are given both action and test objectives that emphasize individualization. Structure of the project is detailed and an attempt to analyze the project evaluation data statistically is included. (MA)

  12. The Sidewalk Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Church, William

    2005-01-01

    In this article, the author features "the sidewalk project" in Littleton High School. The sidewalk project is a collaboration of more than 40 high school physics students, 10 local mentors, and a few regional and national organizations who worked together to invent a way to heat a sidewalk with an alternative energy source. The project, which…

  13. Humane Education Projects Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Junior League of Ogden, UT.

    This handbook was developed to promote interest in humane education and to encourage the adoption of humane education projects. Although specifically designed to assist Junior Leagues in developing such projects, the content should prove valuable to animal welfare organizations, zoos, aquariums, nature centers, and other project-oriented groups…

  14. Projects in History

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harben, Cedric Y.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses two types of historical projects conducted by O-level pupils at Clifton College: studies of famous chemists and projects on the development of industrial chemicals. Indicates that a project in the history of chemistry is characterized by its practical and philosophical approach to chemistry study. (CC)

  15. The Llama Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ganzel, Candy; Stuglik, Jan

    2003-01-01

    At a suburban Indiana elementary school, the Project Approach serves as the basis of the curriculum in all Kindergarten classrooms. The four classes of 5- and 6-year-old children at this school chose to study llamas. This article discusses how the project evolved, describes the three phases of the project, and provides teachers' reflections on the…

  16. Little River Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naisbitt, Ian

    1995-01-01

    Describes the adoption of an old riverside landfill by an elementary school as a Habitat 2000 community project. Contains a "how-to" checklist for such a project, information on building school-community community partnerships, and promotional ideas for stewardship projects. (LZ)

  17. Radiation Effects: Core Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dicello, John F.

    1999-01-01

    methods and predictions which are being used to assess the levels of risks to be encountered and to evaluate appropriate strategies for countermeasures. Although the work in this project is primarily directed toward problems associated with space travel, the problem of protracted exposures to low-levels of radiation is one of national interest in our energy and defense programs, and the results may suggest new paradigms for addressing such risks.

  18. Prediction of Predictability in the Multivariate Case

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jorgenson, Dale O.

    1970-01-01

    Results in this study suggest that it is possible to use performance on a moderator or predictability scale to select a subgroup for whom correspondence between two predictors and the criterion is much greater than that of a subgroup whose scores on the moderator indicate a lesser degree of correspondence. (Author/ES)

  19. Prediction Markets as an Information Aggregation Tool for Effective Project Management in Defense Acquisition Projects

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-30

    provided by contractors are known to ?anchor? expectations ( Aranda & Easterbrook, 2005), even when changes in personnel, technology, or budgetary priorities...GAO, 2004, 2006). Initial estimates provided by contractors are known to “anchor” expectations ( Aranda & Easterbrook, 2005), even when changes in...performance of large programs (GAO, 2004, 2006). Initial estimates provided by contractors are known to “anchor” expectations ( Aranda & Easterbrook

  20. Predictive systems ecology.

    PubMed

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  1. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  2. The Prediction of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities (PRESAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.

    2003-12-01

    It is now widely accepted that the goal of deterministic earthquake prediction is unattainable in the short term and may even be forbidden by nonlinearity in the generating dynamics. This nonlinearity does not, however, preclude the estimation of earthquake probability and, in particular, how this probability might change in space and time; earthquake hazard estimation might be possible in the absence of earthquake prediction. Recently, there has been a major development in the understanding of stress triggering of earthquakes which allows accurate calculation of the spatial variation of aftershock probability following any large earthquake. Over the past few years this Coulomb stress technique (CST) has been the subject of intensive study in the geophysics literature and has been extremely successful in explaining the spatial distribution of aftershocks following several major earthquakes. The power of current micro-computers, the great number of local, telemeter seismic networks, the rapid acquisition of data from satellites coupled with the speed of modern telecommunications and data transfer all mean that it may be possible that these new techniques could be applied in a forward sense. In other words, it is theoretically possible today to make predictions of the likely spatial distribution of aftershocks in near-real-time following a large earthquake. Approximate versions of such predictions could be available within, say, 0.1 days after the mainshock and might be continually refined and updated over the next 100 days. The European Commission has recently provided funding for a project to assess the extent to which it is currently possible to move CST predictions into a practically useful time frame so that low-confidence estimates of aftershock probability might be made within a few hours of an event and improved in near-real-time, as data of better quality become available over the following day to tens of days. Specifically, the project aim is to assess the

  3. Predicting Unsteady Aeroelastic Behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strganac, Thomas W.; Mook, Dean T.

    1990-01-01

    New method for predicting subsonic flutter, static deflections, and aeroelastic divergence developed. Unsteady aerodynamic loads determined by unsteady-vortex-lattice method. Accounts for aspect ratio and angle of attack. Equations for motion of wing and flow field solved iteratively and simultaneously. Used to predict transient responses to initial disturbances, and to predict steady-state static and oscillatory responses. Potential application for research in such unsteady structural/flow interactions as those in windmills, turbines, and compressors.

  4. Pyroshock prediction procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piersol, Allan G.

    2002-05-01

    Given sufficient effort, pyroshock loads can be predicted by direct analytical procedures using Hydrocodes that analytically model the details of the pyrotechnic explosion and its interaction with adjacent structures, including nonlinear effects. However, it is more common to predict pyroshock environments using empirical procedures based upon extensive studies of past pyroshock data. Various empirical pyroshock prediction procedures are discussed, including those developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Lockheed-Martin, and Boeing.

  5. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  6. Underestimation of Project Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Harry W.

    2015-01-01

    Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

  7. Predicting cancer outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Gardner, S N; Fernandes, M

    2005-03-24

    We read with interest the paper by Michiels et al on the prediction of cancer with microarrays and the commentary by Ioannidis listing the potential as well as the limitations of this approach (February 5, p 488 and 454). Cancer is a disease characterized by complex, heterogeneous mechanisms and studies to define factors that can direct new drug discovery and use should be encouraged. However, this is easier said than done. Casti teaches that a better understanding does not necessarily extrapolate to better prediction, and that useful prediction is possible without complete understanding (1). To attempt both, explanation and prediction, in a single nonmathematical construct, is a tall order (Figure 1).

  8. Solar Cycle Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  9. EXPERIMENTS IN GROUP PREDICTION,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    GROUP DYNAMICS, *ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY)), (*PREDICTIONS, ACCURACY), PROBLEM SOLVING, DECISION MAKING, CONFORMITY , QUESTIONNAIRES, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, FEEDBACK, RELIABILITY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

  10. Predictive Modeling of Cardiac Ischemia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Gary T.

    1996-01-01

    The goal of the Contextual Alarms Management System (CALMS) project is to develop sophisticated models to predict the onset of clinical cardiac ischemia before it occurs. The system will continuously monitor cardiac patients and set off an alarm when they appear about to suffer an ischemic episode. The models take as inputs information from patient history and combine it with continuously updated information extracted from blood pressure, oxygen saturation and ECG lines. Expert system, statistical, neural network and rough set methodologies are then used to forecast the onset of clinical ischemia before it transpires, thus allowing early intervention aimed at preventing morbid complications from occurring. The models will differ from previous attempts by including combinations of continuous and discrete inputs. A commercial medical instrumentation and software company has invested funds in the project with a goal of commercialization of the technology. The end product will be a system that analyzes physiologic parameters and produces an alarm when myocardial ischemia is present. If proven feasible, a CALMS-based system will be added to existing heart monitoring hardware.

  11. Managing Projects with KPRO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braden, Barry M.

    2004-01-01

    How does a Project Management Office provide: Consistent, familiar, easily used scheduling tools to Project Managers and project team members? Provide a complete list of organization resources available for use on the project? Facilitate resource tracking and visibility? Provide the myriad reports that the organization requires? Facilitate consistent budget planning and cost performance information? Provide all of this to the entire organization? Provide for the unique requirement of the organization? and get people to use it? Answer: Implementation of the Kennedy space Center Projects and Resources Online (KPRO), a modified COTS solution.

  12. Comparing project investments

    SciTech Connect

    Wirasinghe, E.

    1988-06-01

    HPI managers are often faced with the nightmare of deciding on which projects to invest their limited capital. There usually are more potential projects than money available for investment. A typical strategy is in two parts: select a method to rank the projects; consider corporate policy to make a choice. This discussion highlights various ways to rank projects. After a discussion of some ranking methods, three cases are presented where it appears the wrong project was selected - either because of incorrect advice or because data were intentionally manipulated.

  13. Projecting future sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  14. Adaptive Composite Map Projections.

    PubMed

    Jenny, B

    2012-12-01

    All major web mapping services use the web Mercator projection. This is a poor choice for maps of the entire globe or areas of the size of continents or larger countries because the Mercator projection shows medium and higher latitudes with extreme areal distortion and provides an erroneous impression of distances and relative areas. The web Mercator projection is also not able to show the entire globe, as polar latitudes cannot be mapped. When selecting an alternative projection for information visualization, rivaling factors have to be taken into account, such as map scale, the geographic area shown, the map's height-to-width ratio, and the type of cartographic visualization. It is impossible for a single map projection to meet the requirements for all these factors. The proposed composite map projection combines several projections that are recommended in cartographic literature and seamlessly morphs map space as the user changes map scale or the geographic region displayed. The composite projection adapts the map's geometry to scale, to the map's height-to-width ratio, and to the central latitude of the displayed area by replacing projections and adjusting their parameters. The composite projection shows the entire globe including poles; it portrays continents or larger countries with less distortion (optionally without areal distortion); and it can morph to the web Mercator projection for maps showing small regions.

  15. Pioneering Heat Pump Project

    SciTech Connect

    Aschliman, Dave; Lubbehusen, Mike

    2015-06-30

    This project was initiated at a time when ground coupled heat pump systems in this region were limited in size and quantity. There were economic pressures with costs for natural gas and electric utilities that had many organizations considering ground coupled heat pumps; The research has added to the understanding of how ground temperatures fluctuate seasonally and how this affects the performance and operation of the heat pumps. This was done by using a series of temperature sensors buried within the middle of one of the vertical bore fields with sensors located at various depths below grade. Trending of the data showed that there is a lag in ground temperature with respect to air temperatures in the shoulder months, however as full cooling and heating season arrives, the heat rejection and heat extraction from the ground has a significant effect on the ground temps; Additionally it is better understood that while a large community geothermal bore field serving multiple buildings does provide a convenient central plant to use, it introduces complexity of not being able to easily model and predict how each building will contribute to the loads in real time. Additional controllers and programming were added to provide more insight into this real time load profile and allow for intelligent shedding of load via a dry cooler during cool nights in lieu of rejecting to the ground loop. This serves as a means to ‘condition’ the ground loop and mitigate thermal creep of the field, as is typically observed; and It has been observed when compared to traditional heating and cooling equipment, there is still a cost premium to use ground source heat pumps that is driven mostly by the cost for vertical bore holes. Horizontal loop systems are less costly to install, but do not perform as well in this climate zone for heating mode

  16. Quality Assurance Project Plan for Citizen Science Projects

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Quality Assurance Project Plan is necessary for every project that collects or uses environmental data. It documents the project planning process and serves as a blueprint for how your project will run.

  17. The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, Jonathan J.; Tietsche, Steffen; Collins, Mat; Goessling, Helge F.; Guemas, Virginie; Guillory, Anabelle; Hurlin, William J.; Ishii, Masayoshi; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; Matei, Daniela; Msadek, Rym; Sigmond, Michael; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-06-01

    Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre), an assessment of Arctic sea ice extent and volume predictability estimates in these models, and an investigation into to what extent predictability is dependent on the initial state. The inclusion of additional models expands the range of sea ice volume and extent predictability estimates, demonstrating that there is model diversity in the potential to make seasonal-to-interannual timescale predictions. We also investigate whether sea ice forecasts started from extreme high and low sea ice initial states exhibit higher levels of potential predictability than forecasts started from close to the models' mean state, and find that the result depends on the metric. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, we describe the archived data here so that others can use this data set to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  18. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

    2017-01-01

    Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

  19. Coastal Ohio Wind Project

    SciTech Connect

    Gorsevski, Peter; Afjeh, Abdollah; Jamali, Mohsin; Bingman, Verner

    2014-04-04

    The Coastal Ohio Wind Project intends to address problems that impede deployment of wind turbines in the coastal and offshore regions of Northern Ohio. The project evaluates different wind turbine designs and the potential impact of offshore turbines on migratory and resident birds by developing multidisciplinary research, which involves wildlife biology, electrical and mechanical engineering, and geospatial science. Firstly, the project conducts cost and performance studies of two- and three-blade wind turbines using a turbine design suited for the Great Lakes. The numerical studies comprised an analysis and evaluation of the annual energy production of two- and three-blade wind turbines to determine the levelized cost of energy. This task also involved wind tunnel studies of model wind turbines to quantify the wake flow field of upwind and downwind wind turbine-tower arrangements. The experimental work included a study of a scaled model of an offshore wind turbine platform in a water tunnel. The levelized cost of energy work consisted of the development and application of a cost model to predict the cost of energy produced by a wind turbine system placed offshore. The analysis found that a floating two-blade wind turbine presents the most cost effective alternative for the Great Lakes. The load effects studies showed that the two-blade wind turbine model experiences less torque under all IEC Standard design load cases considered. Other load effects did not show this trend and depending on the design load cases, the two-bladed wind turbine showed higher or lower load effects. The experimental studies of the wake were conducted using smoke flow visualization and hot wire anemometry. Flow visualization studies showed that in the downwind turbine configuration the wake flow was insensitive to the presence of the blade and was very similar to that of the tower alone. On the other hand, in the upwind turbine configuration, increasing the rotor blade angle of attack

  20. Improved nonlinear prediction method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md Noorani, Mohd Salmi

    2014-06-01

    The analysis and prediction of time series data have been addressed by researchers. Many techniques have been developed to be applied in various areas, such as weather forecasting, financial markets and hydrological phenomena involving data that are contaminated by noise. Therefore, various techniques to improve the method have been introduced to analyze and predict time series data. In respect of the importance of analysis and the accuracy of the prediction result, a study was undertaken to test the effectiveness of the improved nonlinear prediction method for data that contain noise. The improved nonlinear prediction method involves the formation of composite serial data based on the successive differences of the time series. Then, the phase space reconstruction was performed on the composite data (one-dimensional) to reconstruct a number of space dimensions. Finally the local linear approximation method was employed to make a prediction based on the phase space. This improved method was tested with data series Logistics that contain 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% of noise. The results show that by using the improved method, the predictions were found to be in close agreement with the observed ones. The correlation coefficient was close to one when the improved method was applied on data with up to 10% noise. Thus, an improvement to analyze data with noise without involving any noise reduction method was introduced to predict the time series data.

  1. Predicting Free Recalls

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laming, Donald

    2006-01-01

    This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

  2. Evolution prediction from tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominy, Jason M.; Venuti, Lorenzo Campos; Shabani, Alireza; Lidar, Daniel A.

    2017-03-01

    Quantum process tomography provides a means of measuring the evolution operator for a system at a fixed measurement time t. The problem of using that tomographic snapshot to predict the evolution operator at other times is generally ill-posed since there are, in general, infinitely many distinct and compatible solutions. We describe the prediction, in some "maximal ignorance" sense, of the evolution of a quantum system based on knowledge only of the evolution operator for finitely many times 0<τ 1prediction as the result of an average over some unknown (and unknowable) variables. The resulting prediction provides a description of the observer's state of knowledge of the system's evolution at times away from the measurement times. Even if the original evolution is unitary, the predicted evolution is described by a non-unitary, completely positive map.

  3. Solar Wind Earth Exchange Project (SWEEP)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-10-28

    and highly charged ions of the solar wind. The main challenge in predicting the resultant photon flux in the X-ray energy bands is due to the...AFRL-AFOSR-UK-TR-2016-0035 Solar Wind Earth Exchange Project 140200 Steven Sembay UNIVERSITY OF LEICESTER Final Report 10/28/2016 DISTRIBUTION A...To) 01 Sep 2014 to 31 Aug 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Solar Wind Earth Exchange Project (SWEEP) 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT NUMBER FA9550-14-1

  4. Projecting long term medical spending growth.

    PubMed

    Borger, Christine; Rutherford, Thomas F; Won, Gregory Y

    2008-01-01

    We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and the medical sector in which the adoption of new medical treatments is endogenous and the demand for medical services is conditional on the state of technology. We use this model to prepare 75-year medical spending forecasts and a projection of the Medicare actuarial balance, and we compare our results to those obtained from a method that has been used by government actuaries. Our baseline forecast predicts slower health spending growth in the long run and a lower Medicare actuarial deficit relative to the previous projection methodology.

  5. Model Valid Prediction Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, P. C.

    2002-12-01

    A new concept, valid prediction period (VPP), is presented here to evaluate model predictability. VPP is defined as the time period when the prediction error first exceeds a pre-determined criterion (i.e., the tolerance level). It depends not only on the instantaneous error growth, but also on the noise level, the initial error, and tolerance level. The model predictability skill is then represented by a single scalar, VPP. The longer the VPP, the higher the model predictability skill is. A theoretical framework on the base of the backward Fokker-Planck equation is developed to determine the probability density function (pdf) of VPP. Verification of a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model is used as an example to demonstrate the usefulness of VPP. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The pdf of VPP is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests long-term predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long such as 50-60 day) predictability is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions. References Chu P. C., L. M. Ivanov, and C.W. Fan, Backward Fokker-Plank equation for determining model predictability with unknown initial error distribution. J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2002. Chu P.C., L.M.Ivanov, T.M. Margolina, and O.V.Melnichenko, 2002b: On probabilistic stability of an atmospheric model to various amplitude perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., in press Chu P.C., L.M. Ivanov, L. Kantha, O.V. Melnichenko and Y.A. Poberezhny, 2002c: The long-term correlations and power decay law in model prediction skill. Geophys. Res. Let., in press.

  6. Environmental Science: 49 Science Fair Projects. Science Fair Projects Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnet, Robert L.; Keen, G. Daniel

    This book contains 49 science fair projects designed for 6th to 9th grade students. Projects are organized by the topics of soil, ecology (projects in habitat and life cycles), pests and controls (projects in weeds and insects), recycling (projects in resources and conservation), waste products (projects in decomposition), microscopic organisms,…

  7. Prediction of Microporosity in Shrouded Impeller Castings

    SciTech Connect

    Viswanathan, S. Nelson, C.D.

    1998-09-01

    The purpose of this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Morris Bean and Company was to link computer models of heat and fluid flow with previously developed quality criteria for the prediction of microporosity in a Al-4.5% Cu alloy shrouded impeller casting. The results may be used to analyze the casting process design for the commercial production of 206 o alloy shrouded impeller castings. Test impeller castings were poured in the laboratory for the purpose of obtaining thermal data and porosity distributions. Also, a simulation of the test impeller casting was conducted and the results validated with porosity measurements on the test castings. A comparison of the predicted and measured microporosity distributions indicated an excellent correlation between experiments and prediction. The results of the experimental and modeling studies undertaken in this project indicate that the quality criteria developed for the prediction of microporosity in Al-4.5% Cu alloy castings can accurately predict regions of elevated microporosity even in complex castings such as the shrouded impeller casting. Accordingly, it should be possible to use quality criteria for porosity prediction in conjunction with computer models of heat and fluid flow to optimize the casting process for the production of shrouded impeller castings. Since high levels of microporosity may be expected to result in poor fatigue properties, casting designs that are optimized for low levels of microporosity should exhibit superior fatigue life.

  8. Recent earthquake prediction research in Japan.

    PubMed

    Mogi, K

    1986-07-18

    Japan has experienced many major earthquake disasters in the past. Early in this century research began that was aimed at predicting the occurrence of earthquakes, and in 1965 an earthquake prediction program was started as a national project. In 1978 a program for constant monitoring and assessment was formally inaugurated with the goal of forecasting the major earthquake that is expected to occur in the near future in the Tokai district of central Honshu Island. The issue of predicting the anticipated Tokai earthquake is discussed in this article as well as the results of research on major recent earthquakes in Japan-the Izu earthquakes (1978 and 1980) and the Japan Sea earthquake (1983).

  9. DOE-EPSCOR SPONSORED PROJECT FINAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Jianting

    2010-03-11

    Concern over the quality of environmental management and restoration has motivated the model development for predicting water and solute transport in the vadose zone. Soil hydraulic properties are required inputs to subsurface models of water flow and contaminant transport in the vadose zone. Computer models are now routinely used in research and management to predict the movement of water and solutes into and through the vadose zone of soils. Such models can be used successfully only if reliable estimates of the soil hydraulic parameters are available. The hydraulic parameters considered in this project consist of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and four parameters of the water retention curves. To quantify hydraulic parameters for heterogeneous soils is both difficult and time consuming. The overall objective of this project was to better quantify soil hydraulic parameters which are critical in predicting water flows and contaminant transport in the vadose zone through a comprehensive and quantitative study to predict heterogeneous soil hydraulic properties and the associated uncertainties. Systematic and quantitative consideration of the parametric heterogeneity and uncertainty can properly address and further reduce predictive uncertainty for contamination characterization and environmental restoration at DOE-managed sites. We conducted a comprehensive study to assess soil hydraulic parameter heterogeneity and uncertainty. We have addressed a number of important issues related to the soil hydraulic property characterizations. The main focus centered on new methods to characterize anisotropy of unsaturated hydraulic property typical of layered soil formations, uncertainty updating method, and artificial neural network base pedo-transfer functions to predict hydraulic parameters from easily available data. The work also involved upscaling of hydraulic properties applicable to large scale flow and contaminant transport modeling in the vadose zone and

  10. Project Surveillance and Maintenance Plan. [UMTRA Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-09-01

    The Project Surveillance and Maintenance Plan (PSMP) describes the procedures that will be used by the US Department of Energy (DOE), or other agency as designated by the President to verify that inactive uranium tailings disposal facilities remain in compliance with licensing requirements and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards for remedial actions. The PSMP will be used as a guide for the development of individual Site Surveillance and Maintenance Plans (part of a license application) for each of the UMTRA Project sites. The PSMP is not intended to provide minimum requirements but rather to provide guidance in the selection of surveillance measures. For example, the plan acknowledges that ground-water monitoring may or may not be required and provides the (guidance) to make this decision. The Site Surveillance and Maintenance Plans (SSMPs) will form the basis for the licensing of the long-term surveillance and maintenance of each UMTRA Project site by the NRC. Therefore, the PSMP is a key milestone in the licensing process of all UMTRA Project sites. The Project Licensing Plan (DOE, 1984a) describes the licensing process. 11 refs., 22 figs., 8 tabs.

  11. The CHPRC Columbia River Protection Project Quality Assurance Project Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Fix, N. J.

    2008-11-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers are working on the CHPRC Columbia River Protection Project (hereafter referred to as the Columbia River Project). This is a follow-on project, funded by CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company, LLC (CHPRC), to the Fluor Hanford, Inc. Columbia River Protection Project. The work scope consists of a number of CHPRC funded, related projects that are managed under a master project (project number 55109). All contract releases associated with the Fluor Hanford Columbia River Project (Fluor Hanford, Inc. Contract 27647) and the CHPRC Columbia River Project (Contract 36402) will be collected under this master project. Each project within the master project is authorized by a CHPRC contract release that contains the project-specific statement of work. This Quality Assurance Project Plan provides the quality assurance requirements and processes that will be followed by the Columbia River Project staff.

  12. On the prediction of GLE events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunez, Marlon; Reyes, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    A model for predicting the occurrence of GLE events is presented. This model uses the UMASEP scheme based on the lag-correlation between the time derivatives of soft X-ray flux (SXR) and near-earth proton fluxes (Núñez, 2011, 2015). We extended this approach with the correlation between SXR and ground-level neutron measurements. This model was calibrated with X-ray, proton and neutron data obtained during the period 1989-2015 from the GOES/HEPAD instrument, and neutron data from the Neutron Monitor Data Base (NMDB). During this period, 32 GLE events were detected by neutron monitor stations. We consider that a GLE prediction is successful when it is triggered before the first GLE alert is issued by any neutron station of the NMDB network. For the most recent 16 years (2015-2000), the model was able to issue successful predictions for the 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), obtaining a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 36.4% (4/11), and an average warning time of 10 min. For the first years of the evaluation period (1989-1999), the model was able to issue successful predictions for the 31.6% (6 of 19 GLE events), obtaining a FAR of 33.3% (3/9), and an AWT of 17 min. A preliminary conclusion is that the model is not able to predict the promptest events but the more gradual ones. The final goal of this project, which is now halfway through its planned two-year duration, is the prediction of >500 MeV events. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under agreement No 637324.

  13. ASRM radiation and flowfield prediction status. [Advanced Solid Rocket Motor plume radiation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, J. E.; Everson, J.; Smith, S. D.; Sulyma, P. R.

    1991-01-01

    Existing and proposed methods for the prediction of plume radiation are discussed in terms of their application to the NASA Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) and Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) projects. Extrapolations of the Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are discussed with respect to preliminary predictions of the primary and secondary radiation environments. The methodology for radiation and initial plume property predictions are set forth, including a new code for scattering media and independent secondary source models based on flight data. The Monte Carlo code employs a reverse-evaluation approach which traces rays back to their point of absorption in the plume. The SRM sea-level plume model is modified to account for the increased radiation in the ASRM plume due to the ASRM's propellant chemistry. The ASRM cycle-1 environment predictions are shown to identify a potential reason for the shutdown spike identified with pre-SRM staging.

  14. A Personal Projects Analysis: examining adaptation to low back pain.

    PubMed

    Vroman, Kerryellen; Chamberlain, Kerry; Warner, Rebecca

    2009-07-01

    Personal Projects Analysis (PPA) offers an alternative approach to studying adaptation to illnesses. This study investigated adaptation to low back pain using PPA to examine the relationship between participants' perceptions of pain, and their functioning and well-being. Participants appraised their five most important projects on 26 dimensions, such as project value, success and difficulty. Factor analyses of the project ratings yielded five dispositions (Integrity, Personal Agency, Social Visibility, Pain Salience and Stressfulness). In regression analysis all five dispositions significantly predicted Physical and Social Function, Disruption of Roles, and Well-being. ;Pain Salience' was the strongest predictor of functional outcomes, and ;Stressfulness' was the best predictor of well-being.

  15. The FLARECAST Project and What Lies Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Flarecast Team

    2016-04-01

    Solar eruptions exhibit three different legs, namely flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. All these eruptive manifestations entail an impact in heliospheric space weather, at different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, these eruptive manifestations should be ideally predicted to shield humanity and its assets in space and, in some cases, on Earth's surface. The EC has endorsed this need, calling for and funding projects targeted on the forecasting of aspects of the near-Earth space environment. The Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption foreCASTing (FLARECAST) is one of them, with an objective to develop a definitive, openly accessible solar-flare prediction facility. We will focus on the main attributes of this facility, namely its ability to expand by reconciling new flare predictors and its setup, that is intended to couple tactical understanding of the flare phenomenon with a consolidated view on how this understanding can be turned into a deliverable with practical, operational face value. A third component of the FLARECAST project, namely its exploratory part, aims to bridge flare prediction with prediction of CMEs and, hopefully, SPE events, touching the other two areas of space-weather forecasting. Fragmented but very significant work exists in these areas that prompts one to envision a future, EC-funded unified prediction platform that could address all forecasting needs of the Sun-generated space weather. Research partially funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 640216.

  16. Prediction of alumina penetration

    SciTech Connect

    Mandell, D A

    1993-02-01

    The MESA hydrocode was used to predict two-dimensional tests of L/D 10 and L/D 15 tungsten rods impacting AD 90 alumina with a steel backing. The residual penetration into the steel is the measured quantity in these experiments conducted at the Southwest Research Institute (SWR). The interface velocity as a function of time between an alumina target and a lithium fluoride window, impacted by an alumina disk at velocities between 544 m/s and 2329 m/s, was also predicted. These one-dimensional flyer plate experiments were conducted at Sandia National Laboratories using Coors AD 995 alumina. The material strength and fracture models are important in the prediction of ceramic experiments. The models used in these predictions are discussed. The penetrations in the two-dimensional tests were predicted to 11.4 percent or better. In five of the six experiments, the predicted penetration depth was deeper than the measured value. This trend is expected since the calculation is based on ideal conditions. The results show that good agreement between the 1-D flyer plate data and the MESA predictions exists at the lower impact velocities, but the maximum velocity is overpredicted as the flyer plate velocity increases. At a flyer plate velocity of 2329 m/s the code overpredicted the data by 12.3 percent.

  17. Project GlobWave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Busswell, Geoff; Ash, Ellis; Piolle, Jean-Francois; Poulter, David J. S.; Snaith, Helen; Collard, Fabrice; Sheera, Harjit; Pinnock, Simon

    2010-12-01

    The ESA GlobWave project is a three year initiative, funded by ESA and CNES, to service the needs of satellite wave product users across the globe. Led by Logica UK, with support from CLS, IFREMER, SatOC and NOCS, the project will provide free access to satellite wave data and products in a common format, both historical and in near real time, from various European and American SAR and altimeter missions. Building on the successes of similar projects for Sea Surface Temperature and ocean colour, the project aims to stimulate increased use and analysis of satellite wave products. In addition to common-format satellite data the project will provide comparisons with in situ measurements, interactive data analysis tools and a pilot spatial wave forecast verification scheme for operational forecast production centres. The project will begin operations in January 2010, with direction from regular structured user consultation.

  18. Battleground Energy Recovery Project

    SciTech Connect

    Bullock, Daniel

    2011-12-31

    In October 2009, the project partners began a 36-month effort to develop an innovative, commercial-scale demonstration project incorporating state-of-the-art waste heat recovery technology at Clean Harbors, Inc., a large hazardous waste incinerator site located in Deer Park, Texas. With financial support provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Battleground Energy Recovery Project was launched to advance waste heat recovery solutions into the hazardous waste incineration market, an area that has seen little adoption of heat recovery in the United States. The goal of the project was to accelerate the use of energy-efficient, waste heat recovery technology as an alternative means to produce steam for industrial processes. The project had three main engineering and business objectives: Prove Feasibility of Waste Heat Recovery Technology at a Hazardous Waste Incinerator Complex; Provide Low-cost Steam to a Major Polypropylene Plant Using Waste Heat; and Create a Showcase Waste Heat Recovery Demonstration Project.

  19. Questioning the Faith - Models and Prediction in Stream Restoration (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcock, P.

    2013-12-01

    River management and restoration demand prediction at and beyond our present ability. Management questions, framed appropriately, can motivate fundamental advances in science, although the connection between research and application is not always easy, useful, or robust. Why is that? This presentation considers the connection between models and management, a connection that requires critical and creative thought on both sides. Essential challenges for managers include clearly defining project objectives and accommodating uncertainty in any model prediction. Essential challenges for the research community include matching the appropriate model to project duration, space, funding, information, and social constraints and clearly presenting answers that are actually useful to managers. Better models do not lead to better management decisions or better designs if the predictions are not relevant to and accepted by managers. In fact, any prediction may be irrelevant if the need for prediction is not recognized. The predictive target must be developed in an active dialog between managers and modelers. This relationship, like any other, can take time to develop. For example, large segments of stream restoration practice have remained resistant to models and prediction because the foundational tenet - that channels built to a certain template will be able to transport the supplied sediment with the available flow - has no essential physical connection between cause and effect. Stream restoration practice can be steered in a predictive direction in which project objectives are defined as predictable attributes and testable hypotheses. If stream restoration design is defined in terms of the desired performance of the channel (static or dynamic, sediment surplus or deficit), then channel properties that provide these attributes can be predicted and a basis exists for testing approximations, models, and predictions.

  20. Computer Assets Recovery Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    CortesPena, Aida Yoguely

    2010-01-01

    This document reports on the project that was performed during the internship of the author. The project involved locating and recovering machines in various locations that Boeing has no need for, and therefore requires that they be transferred to another user or transferred to a non-profit organization. Other projects that the author performed was an inventory of toner and printers, loading new computers and connecting them to the network.

  1. Operational waste volume projection

    SciTech Connect

    Koreski, G.M.; Strode, J.N.

    1995-06-01

    Waste receipts to the double-shell tank system are analyzed and wastes through the year 2015 are projected based on generation trends of the past 12 months. A computer simulation of site operations is performed, which results in projections of tank fill schedules, tank transfers, evaporator operations, tank retrieval, and aging waste tank usage. This projection incorporates current budget planning and the clean-up schedule of the tri-party agreement. Assumptions are current as of June 1995.

  2. Frequency Comb Cooling Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-18

    frequency combs ). Recently the power and spectral coverage of frequency combs have grown considerably with projected 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE...Aug-2011 18-May-2012 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Final report on frequency comb cooling project The views, opinions and/or... frequency combs ). Recently the power and spectral coverage of frequency combs have grown considerably with projected average powers above 10 kW. We

  3. KSC History Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snaples, Lee

    2001-01-01

    The project is a joint endeavor between Dr. Henry Dethloff and myself and is producing a number of products related to KSC history. This report is a summary of those projects. First, there is an overview monograph covering KSC history. Second, there is a chapter outline for an eventual book-length history. Third, there is monograph on safety at KSC. Finally, there is a web page and database dedicated to the KSC oral history project.

  4. Rocket Noise Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Margasahayam, Ravi; Caimi, Raoul

    1999-01-01

    A comprehensive, automated, and user-friendly software program was developed to predict the noise and ignition over-pressure environment generated during the launch of a rocket. The software allows for interactive modification of various parameters affecting the generated noise environment. Predictions can be made for different launch scenarios and a variety of vehicle and launch mount configurations. Moreover, predictions can be made for both near-field and far-field locations on the ground and any position on the vehicle. Multiple engine and fuel combinations can be addressed, and duct geometry can be incorporated efficiently. Applications in structural design are addressed.

  5. Blown flap noise prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, N. N.

    1978-01-01

    Theoretical and experimental developments of flow-surface interaction noise with a particular emphasis on blown-flap noise were reviewed. Several blown-flap noise prediction methods were evaluated by comparing predicted acoustic levels, directivity, and spectra with a recently obtained data base. A prediction method was selected and a detailed step-by-step description of this method was provided to develop a computer module to calculate one-third octave band frequency spectra at any given location in the far-field for under-the-wing and upper surface blown configurations as a function of geometric and operational parameters.

  6. Predicting antibiotic resistance.

    PubMed

    Martínez, José L; Baquero, Fernando; Andersson, Dan I

    2007-12-01

    The treatment of bacterial infections is increasingly complicated because microorganisms can develop resistance to antimicrobial agents. This article discusses the information that is required to predict when antibiotic resistance is likely to emerge in a bacterial population. Indeed, the development of the conceptual and methodological tools required for this type of prediction represents an important goal for microbiological research. To this end, we propose the establishment of methodological guidelines that will allow researchers to predict the emergence of resistance to a new antibiotic before its clinical introduction.

  7. Wind power prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  8. Project Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  9. KSC History Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dethloff, Henry C.

    2001-01-01

    The KSC History Project focuses on archival research and oral history interviews on the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Related projects include the preparation of a precis and chapter outline for a proposed book-length narrative history, a bibliography of key primary and secondary resources, a brief monograph overview of the history of KSC, and a monograph on the history of safety at the Center. Finally, there is work on the development of a web page and a personal history data base associated with the oral history project. The KSC History Project has been a joint endeavor between Henry C. Dethloff and Dr. Noble Lee Snaples, Jr.

  10. Other School Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Learning By Design, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Highlights selected construction projects for learning centers, early childhood and development schools, and special purpose educational facilities that have won the Learning By Design Awards for 2001.(GR)

  11. FLEXI Project Management Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohunen, Anna; Krzanik, Lech; Kuvaja, Pasi; Similä, Jouni; Rodriguez, Pilar; Hyysalo, Jarkko; Linna, Tommi

    FLEXI Project Management Survey (FLEXI PMS) has been established to gain detailed knowledge on how the software industry - in particular successful companies - manages agile software development. FLEXI PMS investigates the actual agile values, principles, practices and contexts. The survey is supported by a careful literature review and analysis of existing studies. Special attention is attached to large, multi-site, multi-company and distributed projects - the target area of FLEXI project. The survey is intended to provide solid data for further knowledge acquisition and project/company positioning with regard to feasible agile management practices.

  12. Project Worm Bin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGuire, Daniel C.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a project centering around earthworm activity in a compost bin. Includes suggestions for exercises involving biological and conservation concepts, gardening skills, and dramatical presentations. (ML)

  13. Manpower and project planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, David W.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose was to study how manpower and projects are planned at the Facilities Engineering Division (FENGD) within the Systems Engineering and Operations Directorate of the LaRC and to make recommendations for improving the effectiveness and productivity ot the tools that are used. The existing manpower and project planning processes (including the management plan for the FENGD, existing manpower planning reports, project reporting to LaRC and NASA Headquarters, employee time reporting, financial reporting, and coordination/tracking reports for procurement) were discussed with several people, and project planning software was evaluated.

  14. Ceramic Technology for Advanced Heat Engines Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-08-01

    The Ceramic Technology For Advanced Heat Engines Project was developed by the Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Advanced Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Department of Defense (DOD) advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. However, these programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. An assessment of needs was completed, and a five year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. The objective of the project is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic hearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines.

  15. The Earth System (ES-DOC) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenslade, Mark; Murphy, Sylvia; Treshansky, Allyn; DeLuca, Cecilia; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sebastien

    2014-05-01

    ESSI1.3 New Paradigms, Modelling, and International Collaboration Strategies for Earth System Sciences Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software and places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages emerging documentation standards and supports the following projects: Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and demonstrate the range of tools and services currently available for use. It will also demonstrate how international collaborative efforts are essential to the success of ES-DOC.

  16. GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Try, Paul

    1993-01-01

    The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) represents the World Climate Research Program activities on clouds, radiation, and land-surface processes. The goal of the program is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime and its impact on atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. However, GEWEX is also concerned with variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment such as increasing greenhouse gases. In fact, GEWEX contains a major new international project called the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), which is designed to bridge the gap between the small scales represented by hydrological models and those scales that are practical for predicting the regional impacts of climate change. The development and use of coupled mesoscale-hydrological models for this purpose is a high priority in GCIP. The objectives of GCIP are presented.

  17. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  18. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  19. Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

  20. Predicting Population Curves.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bunton, Matt

    2003-01-01

    Uses graphs to involve students in inquiry-based population investigations on the Wisconsin gray wolf. Requires students to predict future changes in the wolf population, carrying capacity, and deer population. (YDS)

  1. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

    PubMed

    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  2. Principles of Predictive Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

    Mathematical models were first used in food microbiology in the early 20th century to describe the thermal destruction of pathogens in food, but the concept of predictive microbiology really emerged in the 1980 s. This concept was first developed and extensively discussed by McMeekin and his colleagues at the University of Tasmania (Ratkowsky, Olley, McMeekin, & Ball, 1982; McMeekin, Olley, Ross, & Ratkowsky, 1993; McMeekin, Olley, Ratkowsky, & Ross, 2002). Now predictive microbiology or predictive modeling in foods may be considered as a subdiscipline of food microbiology, with its international meetings (5th conference on “Predictive Modelling in Foods” in 2007) gathering a scientific community from all over the world.

  3. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  4. Validation of Maintainability Prediction.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    Fault Detection and Isolation S outputs (FD&I outputs) to replaceable items (RI’s). In performing the detailed prediction, the...the reliability prediction. Next, the Fault Detection and Isolation outputs are identified. The FD&I outputs can be derived from the schematics or if...acheive systems where fault detection and isolation are virtually instantaneous, accurate, and not dependent on operator skill levels. 9.1

  5. Prediction of Aerodynamic Drag.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-07-01

    prediction method for reasonable estimates of the drag of afterbodies for military airlifters has recently been published by Kolesar and May72 to...method predicts the drag due to lift reasonably well for quite general, assumed limit shock positions, as shown in Fig. 25. The drag at zero lift is not...investigators, a reasonable estimate for the drag polar could be obtained by numerically averaging the zero and full leading- edge suction drag polars. Drag

  6. The Wedding Project: Introducing the Project Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sorrels, Barbara; Norris, Deborah; Sheeran, Linda

    2004-01-01

    Constructivist education, based on the theories of Piaget and Vygotsky, advocates an approach to curriculum and teaching that is student centered, inquiry based, integrated and intellectually engaging. One teaching strategy that provides such an experience is the Project Approach, reflective of the pedagogy of John Dewey and introduced as a model…

  7. Basalt Waste Isolation Project Reclamation Support Project:

    SciTech Connect

    Brandt, C.A.; Rickard, W.H. Jr.; Cadoret, N.A.

    1992-06-01

    The Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) Reclamation Support Project began in the spring of 1988 by categorizing sites distributed during operations of the BWIP into those requiring revegetation and those to be abandoned or transferred to other programs. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory's role in this project was to develop plans for reestablishing native vegetation on the first category of sites, to monitor the implementation of these plans, to evaluate the effectiveness of these efforts, and to identify remediation methods where necessary. The Reclamation Support Project focused on three major areas: geologic hydrologic boreholes, the Exploratory Shaft Facility (ESF), and the Near-Surface Test Facility (NSTF). A number of BWIP reclamation sites seeded between 1989 and 1990 were found to be far below reclamation objectives. These sites were remediated in 1991 using various seedbed treatments designed to rectify problems with water-holding capacity, herbicide activity, surficial crust formation, and nutrient imbalances. Remediation was conducted during November and early December 1991. Sites were examined on a monthly basis thereafter to evaluate plant growth responses to these treatments. At all remediation sites early plant growth responses to these treatments. At all remediation sites, early plant growth far exceeded any previously obtained using other methods and seedbed treatments. Seeded plants did best where amendments consisted of soil-plus-compost or fertilizer-only. Vegetation growth on Gable Mountain was less than that found on other areas nearby, but this difference is attributed primarily to the site's altitude and north-facing orientation.

  8. River Protection Project (RPP) Project Management Plan

    SciTech Connect

    NAVARRO, J.E.

    2001-03-07

    The Office of River Protection (ORP) Project Management Plan (PMP) for the River Protection Project (RPP) describes the process for developing and operating a Waste Treatment Complex (WTC) to clean up Hanford Site tank waste. The Plan describes the scope of the project, the institutional setting within which the project must be completed, and the management processes and structure planned for implementation. The Plan is written from the perspective of the ORP as the taxpayers' representative. The Hanford Site, in southeastern Washington State, has one of the largest concentrations of radioactive waste in the world, as a result of producing plutonium for national defense for more than 40 years. Approximately 53 million gallons of waste stored in 177 aging underground tanks represent major environmental, social, and political challenges for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). These challenges require numerous interfaces with state and federal environmental officials, Tribal Nations, stakeholders, Congress, and the US Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ). The cleanup of the Site's tank waste is a national issue with the potential for environmental and economic impacts to the region and the nation.

  9. TULSA UNIVERSITY PARAFFIN DEPOSITION PROJECTS

    SciTech Connect

    Michael Volk; Cem Sarica

    2003-10-01

    As oil and gas production moves to deeper and colder water, subsea multiphase production systems become critical for economic feasibility. It will also become increasingly imperative to adequately identify the conditions for paraffin precipitation and predict paraffin deposition rates to optimize the design and operation of these multiphase production systems. Although several oil companies have paraffin deposition predictive capabilities for single-phase oil flow, these predictive capabilities are not suitable for the multiphase flow conditions encountered in most flowlines and wellbores. For deepwater applications in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely that multiphase production streams consisting of crude oil, produced water and gas will be transported in a single multiphase pipeline to minimize capital cost and complexity at the mudline. Existing single-phase (crude oil) paraffin deposition predictive tools are clearly inadequate to accurately design these pipelines because they do not account for the second and third phases, namely, produced water and gas. The objective of this program is to utilize the current test facilities at The University of Tulsa, as well as member company expertise, to accomplish the following: enhance our understanding of paraffin deposition in single and two-phase (gas-oil) flows; conduct focused experiments to better understand various aspects of deposition physics; and, utilize knowledge gained from experimental modeling studies to enhance the computer programs developed in the previous JIP for predicting paraffin deposition in single and two-phase flow environments. These refined computer models will then be tested against field data from member company pipelines. The following deliverables are scheduled during the first three projects of the program: (1) Single-Phase Studies, with three different black oils, which will yield an enhanced computer code for predicting paraffin deposition in deepwater and surface pipelines. (2) Two

  10. Operational Dust Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas; Jones, Luke; Lu, Sarah; Menut, Laurent; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Mulcahy, Jane; Nickovic, Slobodan; Garcia-Pando, Carlos P.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Sekiyama, Thomas T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Terradellas, Enric; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Xiao-Ye; Zhou, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

  11. Template Matching Approach to Signal Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan; Kulikov, Igor

    2010-01-01

    A new approach to signal prediction and prognostic assessment of spacecraft health resolves an inherent difficulty in fusing sensor data with simulated data. This technique builds upon previous work that demonstrated the importance of physics-based transient models to accurate prediction of signal dynamics and system performance. While models can greatly improve predictive accuracy, they are difficult to apply in general because of variations in model type, accuracy, or intended purpose. However, virtually any flight project will have at least some modeling capability at its disposal, whether a full-blown simulation, partial physics models, dynamic look-up tables, a brassboard analogue system, or simple hand-driven calculation by a team of experts. Many models can be used to develop a predict, or an estimate of the next day s or next cycle s behavior, which is typically used for planning purposes. The fidelity of a predict varies from one project to another, depending on the complexity of the simulation (i.e. linearized or full differential equations) and the level of detail in anticipated system operation, but typically any predict cannot be adapted to changing conditions or adjusted spacecraft command execution. Applying a predict blindly, without adapting the predict to current conditions, produces mixed results at best, primarily due to mismatches between assumed execution of spacecraft activities and actual times of execution. This results in the predict becoming useless during periods of complicated behavior, exactly when the predict would be most valuable. Each spacecraft operation tends to show up as a transient in the data, and if the transients are misaligned, using the predict can actually harm forecasting performance. To address this problem, the approach here expresses the predict in terms of a baseline function superposed with one or more transient functions. These transients serve as signal templates, which can be relocated in time and space against

  12. Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sokolowski, Daniel E.; Ensign, C. Robert

    1986-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project is a NASA-sponsored endeavor to improve the durability of advanced gas turbine engines for commercial and military aircraft. Through improvements in the analytical models and life prediction systems, designs for future hot section components, the combustor and turbine, will be more accurately analyzed and will incorporate features required for longer life in the more hostile operating environment of high performance engines.

  13. Final Project Report

    SciTech Connect

    Carrick M. Eggleston

    2003-12-12

    This report provides a description of the main accomplishments of the EMSP funded research, including products such as conference presentations and publications (including those still in preparation). The purpose of this study was to better understand the chemical interactions between dissolved aqueous contaminants and carbonate minerals occurring as coatings on mineral grains in the vadose zone beneath the Hanford reserve. This information is important for construction of improved reactive transport models intended to predict the subsurface migration of contaminants. We made improvements to the hydrothermal atomic force microscope (HAFM) design to be used in this project. The original HAFM was built with funding from the U.S. DOE, Office of Basic Energy Sciences. Improvements include operating limits of 70 bars and 170 C, from an original limit of 12 bars and 150 C. This product is patented. We completed a series of studies of magnesite, MgCO3, because this mineral is structurally equivalent to calcite but reacts much more slowly, allowing us to study carbonate reactivity under pH conditions (i.e., low pH) that are much more problematic for studies of calcite but which are nevertheless relevant to in-situ conditions. We found that dissolving magnesite exhibits a dramatic change in step orientation, and therefore etch pit shape, as pH is lowered through 4.2 to 3 and 2. This change in step orientation is NOT accompanied by an increase in step velocity with decreasing pH. We also found that, after growing magnesite on a magnesite substrate, the newly grown magnesite dissolved much more readily than the underlying substrate magnesite, and exhibited far larger etch pit densities. This effect may have been related to the rate of growth or to the presence of an Fe impurity in the growth solutions. We studied the dissolution of magnesite and calcite (104) surfaces under a wider variety of conditions with a new hydrodynamically defined hydro thermal AFM fluid cell, and we

  14. Multiple regression analyses in the prediction of aerospace instrument costs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tran, Linh

    The aerospace industry has been investing for decades in ways to improve its efficiency in estimating the project life cycle cost (LCC). One of the major focuses in the LCC is the cost/prediction of aerospace instruments done during the early conceptual design phase of the project. The accuracy of early cost predictions affects the project scheduling and funding, and it is often the major cause for project cost overruns. The prediction of instruments' cost is based on the statistical analysis of these independent variables: Mass (kg), Power (watts), Instrument Type, Technology Readiness Level (TRL), Destination: earth orbiting or planetary, Data rates (kbps), Number of bands, Number of channels, Design life (months), and Development duration (months). This author is proposing a cost prediction approach of aerospace instruments based on these statistical analyses: Clustering Analysis, Principle Components Analysis (PCA), Bootstrap, and multiple regressions (both linear and non-linear). In the proposed approach, the Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) will be developed for the dependent variable Instrument Cost by using a combination of multiple independent variables. "The Full Model" will be developed and executed to estimate the full set of nine variables. The SAS program, Excel, Automatic Cost Estimating Integrate Tool (ACEIT) and Minitab are the tools to aid the analysis. Through the analysis, the cost drivers will be identified which will help develop an ultimate cost estimating software tool for the Instrument Cost prediction and optimization of future missions.

  15. [Earth Science Technology Office's Computational Technologies Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fischer, James (Technical Monitor); Merkey, Phillip

    2005-01-01

    This grant supported the effort to characterize the problem domain of the Earth Science Technology Office's Computational Technologies Project, to engage the Beowulf Cluster Computing Community as well as the High Performance Computing Research Community so that we can predict the applicability of said technologies to the scientific community represented by the CT project and formulate long term strategies to provide the computational resources necessary to attain the anticipated scientific objectives of the CT project. Specifically, the goal of the evaluation effort is to use the information gathered over the course of the Round-3 investigations to quantify the trends in scientific expectations, the algorithmic requirements and capabilities of high-performance computers to satisfy this anticipated need.

  16. Project New Pride: Replication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Inst. for Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (Dept. of Justice/LEAA), Washington, DC.

    The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, is establishing a new discretionary grant program entitled Replication of Project New Pride: A Serious Offender Youth Treatment Program. Project New Pride was chosen for replication because of its demonstrated effectiveness in Denver, Colorado,…

  17. Winnipeg Centre Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manitoba Dept. of Education, Winnipeg.

    The Winnipeg Centre Project is a field-based, work-study program that attempts to create more appropriate education for the inner-city child. Sponsored by the Planning and Research Branch of the Department of Colleges and Universities Affairs and administered by Brandon University in consultation with the Winnipeg School Division, the project is…

  18. BI Project Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tracey, Graham; Riha, James

    2009-01-01

    Managing business intelligence (BI) projects in higher education is a formidable responsibility that challenges even the most experienced technical project managers. Data source dependencies, uncertain data quality, changing information requirements, and urgency for actionable information are but a few examples among the multitude of challenges.…

  19. The HALI Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Brad

    2011-01-01

    This article features The HALI Project and shares experiences that led to the first part of the project--Empowered Parents. This program taught parents how to first come to grips with the reality of their situation, then dream new, appropriate dreams for their children. From there it addressed understanding the ongoing emotional journey and how it…

  20. Interactive Genetics Tutorial Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wisconsin Univ., Madison. Dept. of Curriculum and Instruction.

    The Interactive Genetics Tutorial (IGT) project and the Intelligent Tutoring System for the IGT project named MENDEL supplement genetics instruction in biology courses by providing students with experience in designing, conducting, and evaluating genetics experiments. The MENDEL software is designed to: (1) simulate genetics experiments that…

  1. Proficiency Sample Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Apodaca, Mary

    The instrument for Colorado's Foreign Language Proficiency Sample Project and directions for its administration are provided in this document. The project is a voluntary, teacher-designed and -administered effort to standardize high school student language proficiency assessment techniques. The materials are used in teacher workshops. The…

  2. The Mars Millennium Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC.

    The countdown to a new century provides a unique opportunity to engage America's youth in charting a course for the future. The Mars Millennium Project challenges students across the nation to design a community yet to be imagined for the planet Mars. This interdisciplinary learning project aims to encourage K-12 students in classrooms and youth…

  3. Spray combustion stability project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jeng, San-Mou; Litchford, Ron J.

    1992-01-01

    This report summarizes research activity on the Spray Combustion Stability Project, characterizes accomplishments and current status, and discusses projected future work. The purpose is to provide a concise conceptual overview of the research effort to date so the reader can quickly assimilate the gist of the research results and place them within the context of their potential impact on liquid rocket engine design technology.

  4. Milford Visual Communications Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Milford Exempted Village Schools, OH.

    This study discusses a visual communications project designed to develop activities to promote visual literacy at the elementary and secondary school levels. The project has four phases: (1) perception of basic forms in the environment, what these forms represent, and how they inter-relate; (2) discovery and communication of more complex…

  5. The TULIP Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gusack, Nancy, Ed.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Contains 11 articles that describe different university access systems designed and built to provide access to journals via The University Licensing Program (TULIP), a science journal access project, involving Elsevier Science Publishing and major universities. The project produced insights to help with future electronic information delivery…

  6. The Nordwrite Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evensen, Lars, Sigfred

    A planned 3-year joint project of the Nordic research council for the humanities that focuses on writing development in school-age children is described. Four Nordic countries are involved in the project: Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. In the study, discourse-level performance analyses of student writing in English as a Second Language are…

  7. Educational Project with MIND.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruddock, Helen; Worrall, Paul

    A project in creative writing and literacy was developed and implemented for people experiencing mental health difficulties. The project was a jointly organized activity between Dearne Valley College and Doncaster MIND in England. (MIND is a network of mental health associations in England and Wales.) The college counselor acted as the supervisor…

  8. Understanding Population Projections.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haub, Carl

    1987-01-01

    Population projections are "what if" computational exercises. Given selected assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, population trends can be projected. Government and business planners need this information, and they also require enough time to put facilities in place to meet future needs. Everyone benefits from a…

  9. Winter Art Education Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jokela, Timo

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe how the Department of Art Education at the University of Lapland in Finland has developed winter art as a method of environmental and community-based art education. I will focus on the Snow Show Winter Art Education Project, a training project funded by the European Union and the State Provincial Office…

  10. A Holiday Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kofod, Maudrey Taranto

    1996-01-01

    Describes a classroom project involving the construction of a holiday mobile. Necessary supplies include a lightweight hanger, construction paper, string, scissors, protractors, compasses, and rulers. Concepts involved in the construction of the project include illustrating a chord, radius, diameter, shapes, metric measuring, circumference, area,…

  11. Distortion in Perspective Projection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelso, Robert P., Sr.

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents a unique approach in associating perspective projection with the image beheld by the eye and demonstrates that all graphical and photographic perspective projections must contain distortion when compared to the image beheld by the eye. (Contains 8 figures.)

  12. The Plate Tectonics Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hein, Annamae J.

    2011-01-01

    The Plate Tectonics Project is a multiday, inquiry-based unit that facilitates students as self-motivated learners. Reliable Web sites are offered to assist with lessons, and a summative rubric is used to facilitate the holistic nature of the project. After each topic (parts of the Earth, continental drift, etc.) is covered, the students will…

  13. The Home Microbiome Project

    ScienceCinema

    Gilbert, Jack

    2016-07-12

    The Home Microbiome Project is an initiative aimed at uncovering the dynamic co-associations between people's bacteria and the bacteria found in their homes.The hope is that the data and project will show that routine monitoring of the microbial diversity of your body and of the environment in which you live is possible.

  14. SDM Virtualness Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Christopher Yit-Seong; Klein, Janice

    2004-01-01

    In the summer of 2001, NASA and Ford Motor Company co-sponsored a research project aimed at improving the education process and application of lessons learned through distant education. The System Design & Management Program (SDM) was used as a laboratory for improving distance learning capabilities. The research project was a follow up to previous research on globally dispersed teams.

  15. The Physics Plus Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKim, F. R.

    1983-01-01

    The Physics Plus Project is producing a series of pamphlets designed to supplement existing curricula with physics application topics (such as physics of sports, motor cars, weather, medical physics, energy). Discusses rationale for the projects, pamphlet production, distribution to schools, and use of pamphlet material on examinations. (JM)

  16. Project Planning and Reporting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Project Planning Analysis and Reporting System (PPARS) is automated aid in monitoring and scheduling of activities within project. PPARS system consists of PPARS Batch Program, five preprocessor programs, and two post-processor programs. PPARS Batch program is full CPM (Critical Path Method) scheduling program with resource capabilities. Can process networks with up to 10,000 activities.

  17. Project Information Packages: Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    RMC Research Corp., Mountain View, CA.

    This brochure describes a new series of Project Information Packages, a U.S. Office of Education response to the need for a systematic approach to disseminating exemplary projects. The packages describe procedures for developing the necessary administrative support and management framework, as well as instructional methods and techniques. The six…

  18. The Comic Book Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitz, Michael

    2008-01-01

    The Comic Book Project (CBP) celebrates its eighth anniversary this year. The project, which just originated with one school in New York City, had grown to encompass thousands of students nationwide. The goal of the CBP is not to create comics the "Marvel way" or to develop the next Stan Lee. Rather, the goal is to give students the opportunity to…

  19. Conservation Science Fair Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soil Conservation Society of America, Ankeny, IA.

    Included are ideas, suggestions, and examples for selecting and designing conservation science projects. Over 70 possible conservation subject areas are presented with suggested projects. References are cited with each of these subject areas, and a separate list of annotated references is included. The references pertain to general subject…

  20. Beacon College Project Directory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnett, Lynn, Ed.

    The American Association of Community Colleges' Beacon College Project (BCP) uses funds from the Kellogg Foundation to award two-year grants to "Beacon" community colleges to form consortia with at least five associate colleges, designed to improve a specific aspect of institutional life. A total of 26 projects, many involving community…

  1. Project BEST Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pankratz, David; Friedenberg, Joan

    Project BEST (Building Energy Systems Technology), a bilingual vocational training program, operated at Oakton Community College between March 1986 and September 1987. The purpose of the project was to provide 60 limited English proficient (LEP) Hispanic and Polish adults with sufficient vocational skills, English language skills, and appropriate…

  2. Projecting Personnel Needs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Philip T.

    Increased reliance on personnel services is placing school districts' business operations in a no-win situation. This report evaluates methods of student population projection in relation to teacher costs. Educational costs reflect personnel costs in light of a decrease in the number of pupils being served. Increased enrollment projections create…

  3. The ANTARES Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amram, Ph.; Anvar, S.; Aslanides, E.; Aubert, J. J.; Azoulay, R.; Basa, S.; Benhammou, Y.; Bernard, F.; Berthier, R.; Bertin, V.; Billault, M.; Biller, S.; Blanc, F.; Blanc, P. E.; Bland, R. W.; Blondeau, F.; de Botton, N.; Bottu, N.; Boulesteix, J.; Brooks, B.; Brunner, J.; Calzas, A.; Carloganu, C.; Carr, J.; Carton, P. H.; Cartwright, S.; Cases, R.; Cassol, F.; Charles, F.; Charles, J.; Desages, F.; Destelle, J. J.; Dispau, G.; Duval, P. Y.; Engelen, J.; Feinstein, F.; Flores, E. C.; Fopma, J.; Fuda, J. L.; Goret, P.; Gosset, L.; Gournay, J. F.; Hernandez, J. J.; Hubaut, F.; Hubbard, R.; Huss, D.; Jaquet, M.; Jelley, N.; Kajfasz, E.; Kouchner, A.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Lachartre, D.; Lafoux, H.; Lamare, P.; Languillat, J. C.; Laugier, J. P.; Le Provost, H.; Loiseau, D.; Loucatos, S.; Magnier, P.; Marc, K.; Marcelin, M.; Martin, L.; Mazeau, B.; Mazure, A.; McMillan, J.; Meessen, C.; Millot, C.; Mols, P.; Montanet, F.; Moorhead, M.; Moscoso, L.; Navas, S.; Nooren, Van; Olivetto, C.; Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Pallares, A.; Payre, P.; Perrin, P.; Poinsignon, J.; Potheau, R.; Qian, Z.; Raymond, M.; Roberts, J.; Sacquin, Y.; Schuller, J. P.; Schuster, W.; Spooner, N.; Stolarczyk, T.; Tabary, A.; Talby, M.; Tao, C.; Thompson, L.; Triay, R.; Valdy, M.; Velasco, J.; Vigeolas, E.; Vignaud, D.; Vilanova, D.; Wark, D.; Zuniga, J.

    1999-03-01

    The ANTARES project is an international collaboration with the aim of building a deep-sea large area neutrino telescope within the next decade. The achievements and status of the project as at the time of the conference are briefly discussed, and short term steps as well as longer term plans are described.

  4. The Home Microbiome Project

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, Jack

    2014-08-25

    The Home Microbiome Project is an initiative aimed at uncovering the dynamic co-associations between people's bacteria and the bacteria found in their homes.The hope is that the data and project will show that routine monitoring of the microbial diversity of your body and of the environment in which you live is possible.

  5. Plant Biology Science Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hershey, David R.

    This book contains science projects about seed plants that deal with plant physiology, plant ecology, and plant agriculture. Each of the projects includes a step-by-step experiment followed by suggestions for further investigations. Chapters include: (1) "Bean Seed Imbibition"; (2) "Germination Percentages of Different Types of Seeds"; (3)…

  6. The Okapi Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keen, Michael

    1997-01-01

    Examines general issues in conducting information retrieval research. Topics include the Okapi information retrieval system and its probabilistic model; the Cranfield projects, concerning recall and precision; the SMART project with its vector-space model; evaluation methodology, including laboratory evaluation of interactive systems; and…

  7. Small Projects First

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shang-Kuei, Chen

    1975-01-01

    For thousands of years China has been troubled by droughts and floods. In the past 25 years, the country has worked to alleviate these problems. Numerous water conservation projects requiring the communal efforts of the people have been carried out. Record grain crops have resulted from these projects. (MA)

  8. The Moon Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trundle, Kathy Cabe; Willmore, Sandra; Smith, Walter S.

    2006-01-01

    What Australia, Alaska, Qatar, Indiana, and Ohio have in common is the authentic writing More Observations Of Nature (MOON) project. In this unique project, teachers from these disparate geographic locations teamed up to instruct children in grades four through eight via the internet on a nearly universally challenging subject for teachers in the…

  9. The Billboard Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weaver, Victoria

    2005-01-01

    Since 1997, the author coordinated a large-scale billboard project. Coordinated to coincide with the National Art Education Association's celebration of Youth Art Month, strong commitments from faculty, students, administrators, public-relations liaisons, local press, radio, TV, and community businesses have made this project a success. The first…

  10. Mathematics Projects Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hess, Adrien L.

    This handbook is designed as a guide for teachers and students in choosing and developing mathematics projects, from simple demonstrations of mathematical problems or principles that the teacher has assigned as classroom learning experiences to complex, sophisticated exhibits, intended for entrance in fairs and competitions. The use of projects to…

  11. Fundred Dollar Bill Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubin, Mary

    2009-01-01

    This article describes the Fundred Dollar Bill Project which is an innovative artwork made of millions of drawings. This creative collective action is intended to support Operation Paydirt, an extraordinary art/science project uniting three million children with educators, scientists, healthcare professionals, designers, urban planners, engineers,…

  12. Schoolyard Habitat Project Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Rich

    This project aims to provide basic steps for students to restore and create wildlife habitats on school grounds. Four chapters are included in this guide, and each chapter is divided into teacher and student sections. Chapter 1 provides necessary information for starting a habitat project. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 discuss the details for the Forest…

  13. The CLASS Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

    The CLASS project is a series of investigations and projects designed by the National Wildlife Federation as supplementary materials for existing junior high school environmental curricula. This notebook contains nine different sections: an introduction, six content areas, a series of case studies, and a resource bibliography. The six content…

  14. Limits and Uses of Dynamical Predictions of Meteorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyon, B.

    2012-12-01

    The overall technical capabilities now exist to make real time, seasonal drought forecasts on a near global scale, but how skillful are such predictions? In this talk the skill of seasonal drought indicator predictions based on a combination of real time observations and dynamical model seasonal forecasts is first evaluated over the US and Mexico. The relative contributions of predictive skill from sea surface temperatures and initialed land surface and atmospheric conditions is discussed relative to baseline predictability resulting from the inherent persistence of the indicators. Web-based tools which display such predictions are then briefly described. Finally, the challenges in using such predictions in decision-making settings is described. In many applications, more detailed or tailored information is desired. Examples of the latter are based on IRI-related projects on fire early warning in Kalimantan, food security outlooks in East Africa and research towards drought early warning in the agriculture sector in the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

  15. What can we predict about viral evolution and emergence?

    PubMed Central

    Holmes, Edward C.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the emergence of infectious diseases has been touted as one of the most important goals of biomedical science, with an array of funding schemes and research projects. However, evolutionary biology generally has a dim view of prediction, and there is a danger that erroneous predictions will mean a misuse of resources and undermine public confidence. Herein, I outline what can be realistically predicted about viral evolution and emergence, argue that any success in predicting what may emerge is likely to be limited, but that forecasting how viruses might evolve and spread following emergence is more tractable. I also emphasize that a properly grounded research program in disease prediction must involve a synthesis of ecological and genetic perspectives. PMID:23273851

  16. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

    PubMed Central

    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Andreu-Burillo, I.; Chikamoto, Y.; García-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Kimoto, M.; Mochizuki, T.; Rodrigues, L. R. L.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions. PMID:23591882

  17. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.

    PubMed

    Doblas-Reyes, F J; Andreu-Burillo, I; Chikamoto, Y; García-Serrano, J; Guemas, V; Kimoto, M; Mochizuki, T; Rodrigues, L R L; van Oldenborgh, G J

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  18. Bioenergy/Biotechnology projects

    SciTech Connect

    Napper, Stan; Palmer, James; Wilson, Chester; Guilbeau, Eric; Allouche, Erez

    2012-06-30

    This report describes the progress of five different projects. The first is an enzyme immobilization study of cellulase to reduce costs of the cellulosic ethanol process. High reusability and use of substrates applicable to large scale production were focus areas for this study. The second project was the development of nanostructured catalysts for conversion of syngas to diesel. Cobalt nanowire catalyst was used in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The third project describes work on developing a microfluidic calorimeter to measure reaction rates of enzymes. The fourth project uses inorganic polymer binders that have the advantage of a lower carbon footprint than Portland cement while also providing excellent performance in elevated temperature, high corrosion resistance, high compressive and tensile strengths, and rapid strength gains. The fifth project investigates the potential of turbines in drop structures (such as sewer lines in tall buildings) to recover energy.

  19. A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections

    PubMed Central

    Lindström, Tom; Tildesley, Michael; Webb, Colleen

    2015-01-01

    Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensemble prediction. A sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of prior can have a pronounced effect on the posterior estimates of quantities of interest, in particular for ensembles with large discrepancy among projections. However, by using a hierarchical extension of the method we show that prior sensitivity can be circumvented. We further extend the method to include a priori beliefs about different modeling assumptions and demonstrate that the effect of this can have different consequences depending on the discrepancy among projections. We propose that the method is a promising analytical tool for ensemble modeling of disease outbreaks. PMID:25927892

  20. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  1. North American LNG Project Sourcebook

    SciTech Connect

    2007-06-15

    The report provides a status of the development of LNG Import Terminal projects in North America, and includes 1-2 page profiles of 63 LNG projects in North America which are either in operation, under construction, or under development. For each project, the sourcebook provides information on the following elements: project description, project ownership, project status, projected operation date, storage capacity, sendout capacity, and pipeline interconnection.

  2. Fusion Plasma Theory project summaries

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-01

    This Project Summary book is a published compilation consisting of short descriptions of each project supported by the Fusion Plasma Theory and Computing Group of the Advanced Physics and Technology Division of the Department of Energy, Office of Fusion Energy. The summaries contained in this volume were written by the individual contractors with minimal editing by the Office of Fusion Energy. Previous summaries were published in February of 1982 and December of 1987. The Plasma Theory program is responsible for the development of concepts and models that describe and predict the behavior of a magnetically confined plasma. Emphasis is given to the modelling and understanding of the processes controlling transport of energy and particles in a toroidal plasma and supporting the design of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). A tokamak transport initiative was begun in 1989 to improve understanding of how energy and particles are lost from the plasma by mechanisms that transport them across field lines. The Plasma Theory program has actively-participated in this initiative. Recently, increased attention has been given to issues of importance to the proposed Tokamak Physics Experiment (TPX). Particular attention has been paid to containment and thermalization of fast alpha particles produced in a burning fusion plasma as well as control of sawteeth, current drive, impurity control, and design of improved auxiliary heating. In addition, general models of plasma behavior are developed from physics features common to different confinement geometries. This work uses both analytical and numerical techniques. The Fusion Theory program supports research projects at US government laboratories, universities and industrial contractors. Its support of theoretical work at universities contributes to the office of Fusion Energy mission of training scientific manpower for the US Fusion Energy Program.

  3. Solar Cycle Prediction.

    PubMed

    Petrovay, Kristóf

    A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time and, therefore, it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, most precursor methods overpredicted cycle 23, while some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of

  4. Earthquake prediction, societal implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aki, Keiiti

    1995-07-01

    "If I were a brilliant scientist, I would be working on earthquake prediction." This is a statement from a Los Angeles radio talk show I heard just after the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. Five weeks later, at a monthly meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), where more than two hundred scientists and engineers gathered to exchange notes on the earthquake, a distinguished French geologist who works on earthquake faults in China envied me for working now in southern California. This place is like northeastern China 20 years ago, when high seismicity and research activities led to the successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake of February 4, 1975 with magnitude 7.3. A difficult question still haunting us [Aki, 1989] is whether the Haicheng prediction was founded on the physical reality of precursory phenomena or on the wishful thinking of observers subjected to the political pressure which encouraged precursor reporting. It is, however, true that a successful life-saving prediction like the Haicheng prediction can only be carried out by the coordinated efforts of decision makers and physical scientists.

  5. Deadbeat Predictive Controllers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

    1997-01-01

    Several new computational algorithms are presented to compute the deadbeat predictive control law. The first algorithm makes use of a multi-step-ahead output prediction to compute the control law without explicitly calculating the controllability matrix. The system identification must be performed first and then the predictive control law is designed. The second algorithm uses the input and output data directly to compute the feedback law. It combines the system identification and the predictive control law into one formulation. The third algorithm uses an observable-canonical form realization to design the predictive controller. The relationship between all three algorithms is established through the use of the state-space representation. All algorithms are applicable to multi-input, multi-output systems with disturbance inputs. In addition to the feedback terms, feed forward terms may also be added for disturbance inputs if they are measurable. Although the feedforward terms do not influence the stability of the closed-loop feedback law, they enhance the performance of the controlled system.

  6. Aircraft noise prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filippone, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper addresses items for further research and development. Examples are shown for several airplanes, including the Airbus A319-100 (CFM engines), the Bombardier Dash8-Q400 (PW150 engines, Dowty R408 propellers) and the Boeing B737-800 (CFM engines). Predictions are done with the flight mechanics code FLIGHT. The transfer function between flight mechanics and the noise prediction is discussed in some details, along with the numerical procedures for validation and verification. Some code-to-code comparisons are shown. It is contended that the field of aircraft noise prediction has not yet reached a sufficient level of maturity. In particular, some parametric effects cannot be investigated, issues of accuracy are not currently addressed, and validation standards are still lacking.

  7. PREDICTIVE MODELS. Enhanced Oil Recovery Model

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M.

    1992-02-26

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1 chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2 carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3 in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4 polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5 steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  8. Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

  9. PREDICT : A CASE STUDY.

    SciTech Connect

    Kerscher, W. J. III; Booker, J. M.; Meyer, Mary A.

    2001-01-01

    Delphi Automotive Systems and the Los Alamos National Laboratory worked together to develop PREDICT, a new methodology to characterize the reliability of a new product during its development program. Rather than conducting testing after hardware has been built, and developing statistical confidence bands around the results, this updating approach starts with an early reliability estimate characterized by large uncertainty, and then proceeds to reduce the uncertainty by folding in fresh information in a Bayesian framework. A considerable amount of knowledge is available at the beginning of a program in the form of expert judgment which helps to provide the initial estimate. This estimate is then continually updated as substantial and varied information becomes available during the course of the development program. This paper presents a case study of the application of PREDICT, with the objective of further describing the methodology. PREDICT has been honored with an R&D 100 Award presented by R&D Magazine.

  10. Energy Efficiency Project Development

    SciTech Connect

    IUEP

    2004-03-01

    The International Utility Efficiency Partnerships, Inc. (IUEP) has been a leader among the industry groups that have supported voluntary initiatives to promote international energy efficiency projects and address global climate change. The IUEP maintains its leadership by both supporting international greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and by partnering with U.S. and international organizations to develop and implement strategies and specific energy efficiency projects. The goals of the IUEP program are to (1) provide a way for U.S. industry to maintain a leadership role in international energy efficiency infrastructure projects; (2) identify international energy project development opportunities to continue its leadership in supporting voluntary market-based mechanisms to reduce GHG emissions; and (3) demonstrate private sector commitment to voluntary approaches to global climate issues. The IUEP is dedicated to identifying, promoting, managing, and assisting in the registration of international energy efficiency projects that result in demonstrated voluntary reductions of GHG emissions. This Final Technical Report summarizes the IUEP's work in identifying, promoting, managing, and assisting in development of these projects and IUEP's effort in creating international cooperative partnerships to support project development activities that develop and deploy technologies that (1) increase efficiency in the production, delivery and use of energy; (2) increase the use of cleaner, low-carbon fuels in processing products; and (3) capture/sequester carbon gases from energy systems. Through international cooperative efforts, the IUEP intends to strengthen partnerships for energy technology innovation and demonstration projects capable of providing cleaner energy in a cost-effective manner. As detailed in this report, the IUEP met program objectives and goals during the reporting period January 1, 2001 through

  11. Project Management for International Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Axelrod, Valija M.; Magisos, Joel H.

    A project developed a content model for international project management training. It also compiled a bibliography of project management references, identified specific project management training needs based upon a survey of international sponsors and contractor personnel, and documented the training needs of international project managers. Data…

  12. Project EXCEL with Hispanic Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pappas, Georgia; Orum, Lori

    1993-01-01

    Describes Project EXCEL (Excellence in Community Educational Leadership), educational project addressing educational needs of Hispanic community. Identifies six models of Project EXCEL (Academia del Pueblo, Project Success, Project Second Chance, Parents as Partners, Teacher Support Network, and Family Reading) and then discusses the first of…

  13. Predictive aging of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cuddihy, Edward F. (Inventor); Willis, Paul B. (Inventor)

    1990-01-01

    A method of predicting aging of polymers operates by heating a polymer in the outdoors to an elevated temperature until a change of property is induced. The test is conducted at a plurality of temperatures to establish a linear Arrhenius plot which is extrapolated to predict the induction period for failure of the polymer at ambient temperature. An Outdoor Photo Thermal Aging Reactor (OPTAR) is also described including a heatable platen for receiving a sheet of polymer, means to heat the platen and switching means such as a photoelectric switch for turning off the heater during dark periods.

  14. Predictive aging of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cuddihy, Edward F. (Inventor); Willis, Paul B. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    A method of predicting aging of polymers operates by heating a polymer in the outdoors to an elevated temperature until a change of property is induced. The test is conducted at a plurality of temperatures to establish a linear Arrhenius plot which is extrapolated to predict the induction period for failure of the polymer at ambient temperature. An Outdoor Photo Thermal Aging Reactor (OPTAR) is also described including a heatable platen for receiving a sheet of polymer, means to heat the platen, and switching means such as a photoelectric switch for turning off the heater during dark periods.

  15. Is Genetic Evolution Predictable?

    PubMed Central

    Stern, David L.; Orgogozo, Virginie

    2011-01-01

    Ever since the integration of Mendelian genetics into evolutionary biology in the early 20th century, evolutionary geneticists have for the most part treated genes and mutations as generic entities. However, recent observations indicate that all genes are not equal in the eyes of evolution. Evolutionarily relevant mutations tend to accumulate in hotspot genes and at specific positions within genes. Genetic evolution is constrained by gene function, the structure of genetic networks, and population biology. The genetic basis of evolution may be predictable to some extent, and further understanding of this predictability requires incorporation of the specific functions and characteristics of genes into evolutionary theory. PMID:19197055

  16. One project`s waste is another project`s resource

    SciTech Connect

    Short, J.

    1997-02-01

    The author describes the efforts being made toward pollution prevention within the DOE complex, as a way to reduce overall project costs, in addition to decreasing the amount of waste to be handled. Pollution prevention is a concept which is trying to be ingrained into project planning. Part of the program involves the concept that ultimately the responsibility for waste comes back to the generator. Parts of the program involve efforts to reuse materials and equipment on new projects, to recycle wastes to generate offsetting revenue, and to increase awareness, accountability and incentives so as to stimulate action on this plan. Summaries of examples are presented in tables.

  17. NACA documents database project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Ruth S.

    1991-01-01

    The plan to get all the National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics (NACA) collection online, with quality records, led to the NACA Documents Data base Project. The project has a two fold purpose: (1) to develop the definitive bibliography of NACA produced and/or held documents; and (2) to make that bibliography and the associated documents available to the aerospace community. This study supports the first objective by providing an analysis of the NACA collection and its bibliographic records, and supports the second objective by defining the NACA archive and recommending methodologies for meeting the project objectives.

  18. The Methanol Economy Project

    SciTech Connect

    Olah, George; Prakash, G. K.

    2014-02-01

    The Methanol Economy Project is based on the concept of replacing fossil fuels with methanol generated either from renewable resources or abundant natural (shale) gas. The full methanol cycle was investigated in this project, from production of methanol through bromination of methane, bireforming of methane to syngas, CO2 capture using supported amines, co-electrolysis of CO2 and water to formate and syngas, decomposition of formate to CO2 and H2, and use of formic acid in a direct formic acid fuel cell. Each of these projects achieved milestones and provided new insights into their respective fields.

  19. Prometheus Project final report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Randall

    2005-01-01

    This Final Report serves as an executive summary of the Prometheus Project's activities and deliverables from November 2002 through September 2005. It focuses on the challenges from a technical and management perspective, what was different and innovative about this project, and identifies the major options, decisions, and accomplishments of the Project team as a whole. However, the details of the activities performed by DOE NR and its contractors will be documented separately in accordance with closeout requirements of the DOE NR and consistent with agreements between NASA and NR.

  20. West Valley Demonstration Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    Under the West Valley Demonstration Project Act, Public Law 96-368, liquid high-level radioactive waste stored at the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in West Valley, New York, is to be solidified (vitrified) in borosilicate glass and transported to a federal repository for geologic disposal. This waste material resulted from spent nuclear fuel reprocessing operations conducted between 1966 and 1972. Project costs are shared by the US Department of Energy (90 percent) and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (10 percent). The site on which the Project is located is owned by New York State. This report is an overview of West Valley's plans and accomplishments.

  1. NAVAJO ELECTRIFICATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    Terry W. Battiest

    2008-06-11

    The Navajo Electrification Demonstration Project (NEDP) is a multi-year project which addresses the electricity needs of the unserved and underserved Navajo Nation, the largest American Indian tribe in the United States. The program serves to cumulatively provide off-grid electricty for families living away from the electricty infrastructure, line extensions for unserved families living nearby (less than 1/2 mile away from) the electricity, and, under the current project called NEDP-4, the construction of a substation to increase the capacity and improve the quality of service into the central core region of the Navajo Nation.

  2. Uranium Pyrophoricity Phenomena and Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    DUNCAN, D.R.

    2000-04-20

    We have compiled a topical reference on the phenomena, experiences, experiments, and prediction of uranium pyrophoricity for the Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel Project (SNFP) with specific applications to SNFP process and situations. The purpose of the compilation is to create a reference to integrate and preserve this knowledge. Decades ago, uranium and zirconium fires were commonplace at Atomic Energy Commission facilities, and good documentation of experiences is surprisingly sparse. Today, these phenomena are important to site remediation and analysis of packaging, transportation, and processing of unirradiated metal scrap and spent nuclear fuel. Our document, bearing the same title as this paper, will soon be available in the Hanford document system [Plys, et al., 2000]. This paper explains general content of our topical reference and provides examples useful throughout the DOE complex. Moreover, the methods described here can be applied to analysis of potentially pyrophoric plutonium, metal, or metal hydride compounds provided that kinetic data are available. A key feature of this paper is a set of straightforward equations and values that are immediately applicable to safety analysis.

  3. The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, S.; Greenslade, M. A.; Treshansky, A.; DeLuca, C.; Guilyardi, E.; Denvil, S.

    2013-12-01

    Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying high quality tools and services in support of Earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation ecosystem that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software, and applies a software development methodology that places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages the emerging Common Information Model (CIM) metadata standard, which has supported the following projects: ** Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); ** Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP-2012); ** National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms (NCPP) Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop (QED-2013). This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and will demonstrate the current production level capabilities of the eco-system: ** An ESM documentation Viewer embeddable into any website; ** An ESM Questionnaire configurable on a project by project basis; ** An ESM comparison tool reusable across projects; ** An ESM visualization tool reusable across projects; ** A search engine for speedily accessing published documentation; ** Libraries for streamlining document creation, validation and publishing pipelines.

  4. DARPA ADAMS Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-11

    Later, we developed a combined NLP and network based approach to prediction of vandals on Wikipedia – which yields over 90% predictive accuracy, beating...inferred through appropriate NLP methods. Formally, a signed social network is a weighted graph G=(V,E,w) where V is a set of vertices (users), E is a

  5. Project LEAF Documents

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project LEAF has a goal of educating farmworkers about how to reduce pesticide exposure to their families from pesticide residues they may be inadvertently taking home on their clothing, etc. Find outreach materials.

  6. DOE Robotics Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    This document provide the bimonthly progress reports on the Department of Energy (DOE) Robotics Project by the University of Michigan. Reports are provided for the time periods of December 90/January 91 through June 91/July 91. (FI)

  7. Quartermaster Reach Restoration Project

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information about the SFBWQP Quartermaster Reach Restoration Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  8. Status of CSNS Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, J.; Fu, S. N.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, Y. W.; Chen, Y. B.; Dong, H. Y.; Fang, S. X.; Huang, K. X.; Jin, D. P.; Kang, W.; Li, J.; Liu, H. C.; Ma, L.; Ouyang, H. F.; Qu, H. M.; Qi, X.; Sun, H.; Tang, J. Y.; Wang, Q. B.; Wang, S.; Xu, T. G.

    The China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) accelerator is designed to accelerate proton beam pulses to 1.6 GeV at 25 Hz repetition rate, striking a solid metal target to produce spallation neutrons. The accelerator provides a beam power of 100 kW on the target in the first phase and then 500 kW in the second phase by increasing the average beam intensity 5 times while raising the linac output energy. The project construction has been formally launched in 2011 and it is planned to complete the project in March 2018. It is one of the high intensity proton accelerator projects in the world and it imposes a great challenge to Chinese accelerator community. This presentation will cover the status and challenges of the CSNS project.

  9. Evaluation of microfinance projects.

    PubMed

    Johnson, S

    1999-08-01

    This paper criticizes the quick system proposed by Henk Moll for evaluating microfinance projects in the article ¿How to Pre-Evaluate Credit Projects in Ten Minutes¿. The author contended that there is a need to emphasize the objectives of the project. The procedure used by Moll, he contended, is applicable only to projects that have only two key objectives, such as credit operations, and the provision of services. Arguments are presented on the three specific questions proposed by Moll, ranging from the availability of externally audited financial reports, the performance of interest rate on loans vis-a-vis the inflation rate, and the provision of loans according to the individual requirements of the borrowers. Lastly, the author emphasizes that the overall approach is not useful and suggests that careful considerations should be observed in the use or abuse of a simple scoring system or checklist such as the one proposed by Moll.

  10. The Poisons Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Barbara A.

    1998-01-01

    Details a project in which students explore and study the poisons in their environment by asking and finding answers to their own research questions. Includes some suggestions for involving students successfully in inquiry-based learning. (DDR)

  11. Municipal Complex Solar Project

    SciTech Connect

    Sher, Jono; Toth, Andrew

    2015-02-12

    This project is a great benefit to the City of Perth Amboy by saving energy and savings costs. The project serves as a great example to city residents about the importance of renewable energy, energy conservation and other environmental topics. An electronic display in the City Hall shows how much energy was generated on that day, how much energy is saved, and environmental benefits. The project serves to educate people of environmental concerns and may spark the interest of individuals in other environmental topics. Hopefully, other residents will be encouraged to use solar energy. The project is also saving money for the City and its taxpayers. Anywhere we can save money means that residents can pay less in taxes and/or the City can provide improved services.

  12. The Classroom Space Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Verbickas, Sarah

    2002-01-01

    Introduces the Classroom Space project aimed at revitalizing science education at Key Stages 3 and 4 by using exciting examples from Space Science and Astronomy to illustrate key science concepts. (Author/YDS)

  13. Vitamin D Pooling Project

    Cancer.gov

    The Vitamin D Pooling Project of Rarer Cancers brought together investigators from 10 cohorts to conduct a large prospective epidemiologic study of the association between vitamin D status and seven rarer cancers.

  14. Robotic Lander Development Project

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Robotic Lander Development Project at the Marshall Center is testing a prototype lander that will aid in the design and development of a new generation of small, smart, versatile robotic lander...

  15. Partridge Creek Diversion Project

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Goal: prevent mercury contamination by keeping the creek from flowing through a mine pit. The project improved brook trout habitat, green infrastructure, the local economy, and decreased human health risks. Includes before-and-after photos.

  16. Space Traveler Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Instructor, 1981

    1981-01-01

    Describes the winners of the Space Traveler Project, a contest jointly sponsored by Rockwell International, NASA, and this magazine to identify worthwhile elementary science programs relating to the Space Shuttle. (SJL)

  17. Mathematics Case Methods Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnett, Carne S.

    1998-01-01

    Presents an overview and analysis of the Mathematics Case Methods Project, which uses cases in order to examine and reflect upon teaching. Focuses on a special kind of teacher knowledge, coined pedagogical-content knowledge. (ASK)

  18. Navajo Electrification Demonstraiton Project

    SciTech Connect

    Larry Ahasteen, Project Manager

    2006-07-17

    This is a final technical report required by DOE for the Navajo Electrification Demonstration Program, This report covers the electric line extension project for Navajo families that currently without electric power.

  19. Air Traffic Network Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The high level requirement of the Air Traffic Network (ATN) project is to provide a mechanism for evaluating the impact of router scheduling modifications on a networks efficiency, without implementing the modifications in the live network.

  20. Project Delivery Methods.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dolan, Thomas G.

    2003-01-01

    Describes project delivery methods that are replacing the traditional Design/Bid/Build linear approach to the management, design, and construction of new facilities. These variations can enhance construction management and teamwork. (SLD)