Science.gov

Sample records for prediction project modificado

  1. The Experimental MJO Prediction Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Waliser, Duane; Weickmann, Klaus; Dole, Randall; Schubert, Siegfried; Alves, Oscar; Jones, Charles; Newman, Matthew; Pan, Hua-Lu; Roubicek, Andres; Saha, Suranjana; hide

    2006-01-01

    Weather prediction is typically concerned with lead times of hours to days, while seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction is concerned with lead times of months to seasons. Recently, there has been growing interest in 'subseasonal' forecasts---those that have lead times on the order of weeks (e.g., Schubert et al. 2002; Waliser et al. 2003; Waliser et al. 2005). The basis for developing and exploiting subseasonal predictions largely resides with phenomena such as the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), mid-latitude blocking, and the memory associated with soil moisture, as well as modeling techniques that rely on both initial conditions and slowly varying boundary conditions (e.g., tropical Pacific SST). An outgrowth of this interest has been the development of an Experimental MJO Prediction Project (EMPP). Th project provides real-time weather and climate information and predictions for a variety of applications, broadly encompassing the subseasonal weather-climate connection. Th focus is on the MJO because it represents a repeatable, low-frequency phenomenon. MJO's importance among the subseasonal phenomena is very similar to that of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) among the interannual phenomena. This note describes the history and objectives of EMPP, its status,capabilities, and plans.

  2. Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

    PubMed

    Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

    2009-03-13

    Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

  3. The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

    Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

  4. The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

    Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

  5. The NIEHS Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation Project.

    PubMed Central

    Bristol, D W; Wachsman, J T; Greenwell, A

    1996-01-01

    The Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation (PTE) project conducts collaborative experiments that subject the performance of predictive-toxicology (PT) methods to rigorous, objective evaluation in a uniquely informative manner. Sponsored by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, it takes advantage of the ongoing testing conducted by the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) to estimate the true error of models that have been applied to make prospective predictions on previously untested, noncongeneric-chemical substances. The PTE project first identifies a group of standardized NTP chemical bioassays either scheduled to be conducted or are ongoing, but not yet complete. The project then announces and advertises the evaluation experiment, disseminates information about the chemical bioassays, and encourages researchers from a wide variety of disciplines to publish their predictions in peer-reviewed journals, using whatever approaches and methods they feel are best. A collection of such papers is published in this Environmental Health Perspectives Supplement, providing readers the opportunity to compare and contrast PT approaches and models, within the context of their prospective application to an actual-use situation. This introduction to this collection of papers on predictive toxicology summarizes the predictions made and the final results obtained for the 44 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of the first PTE experiment (PTE-1) and presents information that identifies the 30 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of PTE-2, along with a table of prediction sets that have been published to date. It also provides background about the origin and goals of the PTE project, outlines the special challenge associated with estimating the true error of models that aspire to predict open-system behavior, and summarizes what has been learned to date. PMID:8933048

  6. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    PubMed Central

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Tropsha, Alexander; Varnek, Alexandre; Zakharov, Alexey; Worth, Andrew; Richard, Ann M.; Grulke, Christopher M.; Trisciuzzi, Daniela; Fourches, Denis; Horvath, Dragos; Benfenati, Emilio; Muratov, Eugene; Wedebye, Eva Bay; Grisoni, Francesca; Mangiatordi, Giuseppe F.; Incisivo, Giuseppina M.; Hong, Huixiao; Ng, Hui W.; Tetko, Igor V.; Balabin, Ilya; Kancherla, Jayaram; Shen, Jie; Burton, Julien; Nicklaus, Marc; Cassotti, Matteo; Nikolov, Nikolai G.; Nicolotti, Orazio; Andersson, Patrik L.; Zang, Qingda; Politi, Regina; Beger, Richard D.; Todeschini, Roberto; Huang, Ruili; Farag, Sherif; Rosenberg, Sine A.; Slavov, Svetoslav; Hu, Xin; Judson, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. Objectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) and demonstrate the efficacy of using predictive computational models trained on high-throughput screening data to evaluate thousands of chemicals for ER-related activity and prioritize them for further testing. Methods: CERAPP combined multiple models developed in collaboration with 17 groups in the United States and Europe to predict ER activity of a common set of 32,464 chemical structures. Quantitative structure–activity relationship models and docking approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1,677 chemical structures provided by the U.S. EPA, to build a total of 40 categorical and 8 continuous models for binding, agonist, and antagonist ER activity. All predictions were evaluated on a set of 7,522 chemicals curated from the literature. To overcome the limitations of single models, a consensus was built by weighting models on scores based on their evaluated accuracies. Results: Individual model scores ranged from 0.69 to 0.85, showing high prediction reliabilities. Out of the 32,464 chemicals, the consensus model predicted 4,001 chemicals (12.3%) as high priority actives and 6,742 potential actives (20.8%) to be considered for further testing. Conclusion: This project demonstrated the possibility to screen large libraries of chemicals using a consensus of different in silico approaches. This concept will be applied in future projects related to other

  7. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational models on high-throughput screening data to screen thousands of chemicals against the estrogen receptor.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Mansouri , K., A. Abdelaziz, A. Rybacka, A. Roncaglioni, A. Tropsha, A. Varnek, A. Zakharov, A. Worth, A. Richard , C. Grulke , D. Trisciuzzi, D. Fourches, D. Horvath, E. Benfenati , E. Muratov, E.B. Wedebye, F. Grisoni, G.F. Mangiatordi, G.M. Incisivo, H. Hong, H.W. Ng, I.V. Tetko, I. Balabin, J. Kancherla , J. Shen, J. Burton, M. Nicklaus, M. Cassotti, N.G. Nikolov, O. Nicolotti, P.L. Andersson, Q. Zang, R. Politi, R.D. Beger , R. Todeschini, R. Huang, S. Farag, S.A. Rosenberg, S. Slavov, X. Hu, and R. Judson. (Environmental Health Perspectives) CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA, 1-49, (2016).

  8. The Vog Measurement and Prediction (VMAP) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Businger, S.; Huff, R.; Sutton, A. J.; Elias, T.; Horton, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Emissions from Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risks to Hawaii. The overarching goal of this feasibility project is to develop an accurate and timely volcanic air-pollution forecasting capacity with a program of verification using state-of-the-art observation methods. To date VMAP has (i) created a real-time modeling and forecast capability using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to predict the concentration and dispersion of SO2 gas and sulfate aerosol from Kilauea volcano (Fig. 1). HYSPLIT uses the output of a high-resolution operational run of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for initial and boundary conditions. (ii) Developed an operational spectrometer-based SO2 emission rate monitor for use as input to the dispersion model, (iii) Cooperatively deployed an array of stationary SO2 gas and sulfate aerosol sensors to record the ground-level spatial characteristics of Kilauea's gas plume in high temporal and spatial resolution for verification and improvement of the gas dispersion prediction, (iv) Developed a series of web pages to disseminate observations and forecasts, which can be used by safety officials to protect the public, and to raise public awareness of the hazards of volcanic emissions to respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation, (v) Developed an archive of vog data to facilitate estimation of historical concentration frequency-of-exposure. VMAP provides technical support for researchers, health professionals, and to our stakeholders, who have also provided constructive input in the development of our products. Preliminary results of our efforts will be presented and future work will be discussed.

  9. Bayesian Prediction and Projection of Sea Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berliner, M.

    2014-12-01

    I will begin with a brief review of Bayesian hierarchical modeling and then turn to a model for sea levels. It is well-accepted that global sea levels have been rising in response to rising global temperatures. The strategy is the development of a Bayesian hierarchical model of sea levels. The hierarchical nature of the model is formulated to enable inference at various spatial scales. Further, temperature is incorporated in the model as a predictor or explanatory variable. Hence, information regarding future sea levels provided by the model rely on information regarding future temperatures. Forming predictions of future temperatures can be done in severalways, depending on the goals of the analysis. I consider two classes of goals. In the first we seek short-term or medium-range forecasts as in weather-like forecasting. In the second we seek projections of sea levels under various emissions scenarios as in studies of the impacts of climate change. I illustrate methods and results for each class and suggest how results can contribute to decision support.

  10. Weather predictions and surface radiation estimates for Project CABRIOLET

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-05-01

    This report documents the activities of the Air Resources Laboratory-Las Vegas (ARL-LV) in support to Project CABRIOLET. The participation of ARL-LV in the Safety Program is stressed, but the full scope of objectives and functions is covered. A description is given of observational facilities used to provide weather services. Weather and fallout predictions issued for the project, as well as prediction procedures and techniques are discussed. A comparison of predicted and observed weather and fallout is made. The results of these activities will serve as a basis for planning and participating in future projects.

  11. Analysis of Pole Coordinate Data Predictions in the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    ARTIFICIAL SATELLITES , Vol. 46, No. 4 - 2011 DOI: 10.2478/v10018-012-0006-x ANALYSIS OF POLE COORDINATE DATA PREDICTIONS IN THE EARTH ORIENTATION...Warsaw initiated the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project, which was accepted by the IERS Directing Board. The goal of...this project is to determine the feasibility of combining Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions on an operational basis. The ensemble

  12. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  13. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Treesearch

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  14. Weather predictions and surface radiation estimates for Project BUGGY I

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-05-01

    This report documents the activities of the Air Resources Laboratory-Las Vegas (ARL-LV) in support of Project BUGGY I. The participation of ARL-LV in the Safety Program is stressed, but the full scope of objectives and functions is covered. A description is given of observational facilities used to provide weather services. Weather predictions and fallout estimates issued for the project, as well as procedures and techniques, are discussed. A comparison of predicted and observed weather and fallout is made. The results of these activities will serve as a basis for planning and participating in future projects. 2 refs., 24 figs.

  15. Weather predictions and surface radiation estimates for Project SCHOONER

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-05-01

    This report documents the activities of the Air Resources Laboratory-Las Vegas (ARL-LV) in support of Project SCHOONER. The participation of ARL-LV in Safety Program is stressed, but the full scope of objectives and functions is covered. A description is given of observational facilities used to provide weather services. Weather predictions and fallout estimates issued for the project as well as procedures and techniques are discussed. A comparison of predicted and observed weather and fallout is made. The results of these activities will serve as a basis for planning and participating in future projects. 2 refs., 17 figs.

  16. EVA Robotic Assistant Project: Platform Attitude Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickels, Kevin M.

    2003-01-01

    The Robotic Systems Technology Branch is currently working on the development of an EVA Robotic Assistant under the sponsorship of the Surface Systems Thrust of the NASA Cross Enterprise Technology Development Program (CETDP). This will be a mobile robot that can follow a field geologist during planetary surface exploration, carry his tools and the samples that he collects, and provide video coverage of his activity. Prior experiments have shown that for such a robot to be useful it must be able to follow the geologist at walking speed over any terrain of interest. Geologically interesting terrain tends to be rough rather than smooth. The commercial mobile robot that was recently purchased as an initial testbed for the EVA Robotic Assistant Project, an ATRV Jr., is capable of faster than walking speed outside but it has no suspension. Its wheels with inflated rubber tires are attached to axles that are connected directly to the robot body. Any angular motion of the robot produced by driving over rough terrain will directly affect the pointing of the on-board stereo cameras. The resulting image motion is expected to make tracking of the geologist more difficult. This will either require the tracker to search a larger part of the image to find the target from frame to frame or to search mechanically in pan and tilt whenever the image motion is large enough to put the target outside the image in the next frame. This project consists of the design and implementation of a Kalman filter that combines the output of the angular rate sensors and linear accelerometers on the robot to estimate the motion of the robot base. The motion of the stereo camera pair mounted on the robot that results from this motion as the robot drives over rough terrain is then straightforward to compute. The estimates may then be used, for example, to command the robot s on-board pan-tilt unit to compensate for the camera motion induced by the base movement. This has been accomplished in two ways

  17. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Kirtman, Ben; Kushnir, Yochanan; Kimoto, Masahide; Meehl, Gerald A.; Msadek, Rym; Mueller, Wolfgang A.; Taylor, Karl E.; Zwiers, Francis; Rixen, Michel; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Eade, Rosie

    2016-10-01

    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the "hiatus", volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to

  18. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Kirtman, Ben; Kushnir, Yochanan; Kimoto, Masahide; Meehl, Gerald A.; Msadek, Rym; Mueller, Wolfgang A.; Taylor, Karl E.; Zwiers, Francis; Rixen, Michel; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Eade, Rosie

    2016-01-01

    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.

    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the

  19. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; ...

    2016-01-01

    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Predictionmore » (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production

  20. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model status and updates

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This presentation will provide current information on the USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, and its implementation by the USDA-Forest Service (FS), USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and other agencies and universities. Most recently, the USDA-NRCS has begun ef...

  1. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  2. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Treesearch

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2013-01-01

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

  3. Predicting the past: a simple reverse stand table projection method

    Treesearch

    Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

    2006-01-01

    A stand table gives number of trees in each diameter class. Future stand tables can be predicted from current stand tables using a stand table projection method. In the simplest form of this method, a future stand table can be expressed as the product of a matrix of transitional proportions (based on diameter growth rates) and a vector of the current stand table. There...

  4. Noise prediction and control of Pudong International Airport expansion project.

    PubMed

    Lei, Bin; Yang, Xin; Yang, Jianguo

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process of the third runway building project of Pudong International Airport is briefly introduced in the paper. The basic principle, the features, and the operation steps of newly imported FAA's Integrated Noise Model (INM) are discussed for evaluating the aircraft noise impacts. The prediction of the aircraft noise and the countermeasures for the noise mitigation are developed, which includes the reasonable runway location, the optimized land use, the selection of low noise aircrafts, the Fly Quit Program, the relocation of sensitive receptors and the noise insulation of sensitive buildings. Finally, the expansion project is justified and its feasibility is confirmed.

  5. GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Science and Implementation Plan is to describe GAPP science objectives and the activities required to meet these objectives, both specifically for the near-term and more generally for the longer-term. The GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) is part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) initiative that is aimed at observing, understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes at various time and spatial scales. The mission of GAPP is to demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources over intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, as an integral part of the climate system.

  6. Predictions of Chemical Weather in Asia: The EU Panda Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, G. P.; Petersen, A. K.; Wang, X.; Granier, C.; Bouarar, I.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality has become a pressing problem in Asia and specifically in China due to rapid economic development (i.e., rapidly expanding motor vehicle fleets, growing industrial and power generation activities, domestic and biomass burning). In spite of efforts to reduce chemical emissions, high levels of particle matter and ozone are observed and lead to severe health problems with a large number of premature deaths. To support efforts to reduce air pollution, the European Union is supporting the PANDA project whose objective is to use space and surface observations of chemical species as well as advanced meteorological and chemical models to analyze and predict air quality in China. The Project involves 7 European and 7 Chinese groups. The paper will describe the objectives of the project and present some first accomplishments. The project focuses on the improvement of methods for monitoring air quality from combined space and in-situ observations, the development of a comprehensive prediction system that makes use of these observations, the elaboration of indicators for air quality in support of policies, and the development of toolboxes for the dissemination of information.

  7. Space debris orbit prediction requirements in the CLEANSPACE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wnuk, Edwin; Jacquelard, Christophe; Esmiller, Bruno; Speiser, Jochen

    2012-07-01

    Overall CLEANSPACE objective is to define a global architecture (including surveillance, identification and tracking) for an innovative ground-based laser solution which can remove hazardous medium debris around selected space assets. The CLEANSPACE project is realized by an European consortium in the frame of the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), Space theme. The paper, in the first part, will present general information about the CLEANSPACE including the main drivers and requirements. Orbital requirements of space debris which have to be reached in the project will be discussed in the second part of the paper. Proposed systems of removal space debris objects with the use of sequence of laser operations, like the CLEANSPACE system, needs very precise predictions of future space debris orbital positions, on a level even better than 1 meter. Orbit determination, tracking (radar, optical and laser) and orbit prediction have to be performed with accuracy much better than so far. The applied prediction tools have to take into account all perturbation factors which influence object orbit, mainly geopotential effects with arbitrary degree and order spherical harmonic coefficients, luni-solar attractions, solar radiation pressure and atmospheric drag. In our paper we discuss the influence of all important perturbation factors on the space debris orbital motion, taking into account different contemporary force models, in particular, geopotential models, atmospheric models and the Sun and the Moon ephemeris.

  8. The OASE project: Object-based Analysis and Seamless prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troemel, Silke; Wapler, Kathrin; Bick, Theresa; Diederich, Malte; Deneke, Hartwig; Horvath, Akos; Senf, Fabian; Simmer, Clemens; Simon, Juergen

    2013-04-01

    The research group on Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction (OASE) is part of the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ). The group consists of scientists at the Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, the Leibniz-Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig and the German Weather Service. OASE addresses seamless prediction of convective events from nowcasting to daily predictions by combining radar/satellite compositing and tracking with high-resolution model-based ensemble generation and prediction. While observation-based nowcasting provides good results for lead times between 0-1 hours, numerical weather prediction addresses lead times between 3-21 hours. Especially the discontinuity between 1-3 hours needs to be addressed. Therefore a central goal of the project is a near real-time high-resolved unprecedented data base. A radar and satellite remote sensing-driven 3D observation-microphysics composite covering Germany, currently under development, contains gridded observations and estimated microphysical quantities. Observations and microphysics are intertwined via forward operators and estimated inverse relations, which also provide uncertainties for model ensemble initialisations. The lifetime evolution of dynamics and microphysics in (severe) convective storms is analysed based on 3D scale-space tracking. An object-based analysis condenses the information contained in the dynamic 3D distributions of observables and related microphysics into descriptors, which will allow identifying governing processes leading to the formation and evolution of severe weather events. The object-based approach efficiently characterises and quantifies the process structure and life cycles of severe weather events, and facilitates nowcasting and the generation and initialisation of model prediction ensembles. Observation-based nowcasting will exploit the dual-composite based 3D feature detection and tracking to generate a set of predictions (observation

  9. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    SciTech Connect

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  10. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    DOE PAGES

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

  11. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  12. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  13. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  14. Prediction of membrane protein types using maximum variance projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Yang, Jie

    2011-05-01

    Predicting membrane protein types has a positive influence on further biological function analysis. To quickly and efficiently annotate the type of an uncharacterized membrane protein is a challenge. In this work, a system based on maximum variance projection (MVP) is proposed to improve the prediction performance of membrane protein types. The feature extraction step is based on a hybridization representation approach by fusing Position-Specific Score Matrix composition. The protein sequences are quantized in a high-dimensional space using this representation strategy. Some problems will be brought when analysing these high-dimensional feature vectors such as high computing time and high classifier complexity. To solve this issue, MVP, a novel dimensionality reduction algorithm is introduced by extracting the essential features from the high-dimensional feature space. Then, a K-nearest neighbour classifier is employed to identify the types of membrane proteins based on their reduced low-dimensional features. As a result, the jackknife and independent dataset test success rates of this model reach 86.1 and 88.4%, respectively, and suggest that the proposed approach is very promising for predicting membrane proteins types.

  15. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

  16. Transistor roadmap projection using predictive full-band atomistic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Salmani-Jelodar, M. Klimeck, G.; Kim, S.; Ng, K.

    2014-08-25

    In this letter, a full band atomistic quantum transport tool is used to predict the performance of double gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) over the next 15 years for International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). As MOSFET channel lengths scale below 20 nm, the number of atoms in the device cross-sections becomes finite. At this scale, quantum mechanical effects play an important role in determining the device characteristics. These quantum effects can be captured with the quantum transport tool. Critical results show the ON-current degradation as a result of geometry scaling, which is in contrast to previous ITRS compact model calculations. Geometric scaling has significant effects on the ON-current by increasing source-to-drain (S/D) tunneling and altering the electronic band structure. By shortening the device gate length from 20 nm to 5.1 nm, the ratio of S/D tunneling current to the overall subthreshold OFF-current increases from 18% to 98%. Despite this ON-current degradation by scaling, the intrinsic device speed is projected to increase at a rate of at least 8% per year as a result of the reduction of the quantum capacitance.

  17. Predicting Plant Invasions Following China's Water Diversion Project.

    PubMed

    Liu, Dasheng; Wang, Rui; Gordon, Doria R; Sun, Xihua; Chen, Lu; Wang, Yanwen

    2017-02-07

    China's South to North Water Diversion (SNWD) project connects portions of the Yangtze River in the south to the Yellow River system in the north, overcoming biogeographic barriers to water movement. The diversion will supply potable water to over 110 million people and provide multiple other socioeconomic benefits. However, an inadvertent negative impact of this connection includes creation of conduits for species invasions. Alligator weed (Alternanthera philoxeroides), water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes) are the only aquatic plant species on China's shortlists for special control. These species are mainly invasive in the Yangtze River basin. If these species are able to invade the SNWD and further spread via the SNWD, they have the potential to alter water supply, including water quantity and quality, as well as local ecology and agriculture, threatening the goals of the diversion. Understanding the full potential for these species to invade northern China is critical to early management decisions to avoid costly negative impacts. We used Maxent modeling to evaluate the probability that each of these species might become invasive in the receiving water regions. The models predict that all three species will be able to expand their ranges northward, with alligator weed and water hyacinth having the greatest potential for range expansion. These results suggest the need for prevention, monitoring, and management strategies for these species to reduce the risk and costs of impacts.

  18. Project Evaluation: Validation of a Scale and Analysis of Its Predictive Capacity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernandes Malaquias, Rodrigo; de Oliveira Malaquias, Fernanda Francielle

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to validate a scale for assessment of academic projects. As a complement, we examined its predictive ability by comparing the scores of advised/corrected projects based on the model and the final scores awarded to the work by an examining panel (approximately 10 months after the project design). Results of…

  19. Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi; hide

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture

  20. Validation of Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for low-volume forest roads

    Treesearch

    William Elliot; R. B. Foltz; Charlie Luce

    1995-01-01

    Erosion rates of recently graded nongravel forest roads were measured under rainfall simulation on five different soils. The erosion rates observed on 24 forest road erosion plots were compared with values predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, Version 93.1. Hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility values were predicted from methods...

  1. Genetic Programming as Alternative for Predicting Development Effort of Individual Software Projects

    PubMed Central

    Chavoya, Arturo; Lopez-Martin, Cuauhtemoc; Andalon-Garcia, Irma R.; Meda-Campaña, M. E.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical and genetic programming techniques have been used to predict the software development effort of large software projects. In this paper, a genetic programming model was used for predicting the effort required in individually developed projects. Accuracy obtained from a genetic programming model was compared against one generated from the application of a statistical regression model. A sample of 219 projects developed by 71 practitioners was used for generating the two models, whereas another sample of 130 projects developed by 38 practitioners was used for validating them. The models used two kinds of lines of code as well as programming language experience as independent variables. Accuracy results from the model obtained with genetic programming suggest that it could be used to predict the software development effort of individual projects when these projects have been developed in a disciplined manner within a development-controlled environment. PMID:23226305

  2. Genetic programming as alternative for predicting development effort of individual software projects.

    PubMed

    Chavoya, Arturo; Lopez-Martin, Cuauhtemoc; Andalon-Garcia, Irma R; Meda-Campaña, M E

    2012-01-01

    Statistical and genetic programming techniques have been used to predict the software development effort of large software projects. In this paper, a genetic programming model was used for predicting the effort required in individually developed projects. Accuracy obtained from a genetic programming model was compared against one generated from the application of a statistical regression model. A sample of 219 projects developed by 71 practitioners was used for generating the two models, whereas another sample of 130 projects developed by 38 practitioners was used for validating them. The models used two kinds of lines of code as well as programming language experience as independent variables. Accuracy results from the model obtained with genetic programming suggest that it could be used to predict the software development effort of individual projects when these projects have been developed in a disciplined manner within a development-controlled environment.

  3. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  4. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  5. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project

    PubMed Central

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%–80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects. PMID:26495427

  6. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    PubMed

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  7. Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

  8. Predictive Modeling and Integrative Physiology: The Physiome Projects

    PubMed Central

    Bassingthwaighte, James B.

    2012-01-01

    The fundamental paradigm in physiological research is integration. Biological researchers are now ready to define for a species a mathematical construct, the Physiome, the all-encompassing quantitative model of an organism. The goal of the human Physiome project is improved health care, through deep understanding of the organism, all the way down to the genes, reconciling contradictions and clarifying cause and effect. The strategies for accomplishing this long term aim include the systematic gathering of old and new knowledge into shared databases, and integrating the information into self consistent, reproducible, mathematical models. Multiscale models, for practicality, cover only a few levels at a time. Beginning at the middle level, the cell, where the knowledge base is largest and most secure, and the elements well defined as functional biophysical/biochemical modules, the plan is to work up to the organism level and down to the gene level, in the end providing clear linkages between phenotype and the genome. PMID:22919435

  9. A Global Perspective: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Whitlock, Charles H.

    2007-01-01

    The Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, initiated under the NASA Science Mission Directorate Applied Science Energy Management Program, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale that are invaluable to the renewable energy industries, especially to the solar and wind energy sectors. The POWER project derives its data primarily from NASA's World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Version 2.9) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (Version 4). The latest development of the NASA POWER Project and its plans for the future are presented in this paper.

  10. Reflexión bioética sobre el uso de organismos genéticamente modificados

    PubMed Central

    Yunta, Eduardo Rodríguez

    2011-01-01

    El presente artículo reflexiona desde los 4 principios de la bioética el uso comercial de organismos genéticamente modificados. Se cuestiona fundamentalmente la falta de transferencia de tecnología entre el mundo desarrollado y en desarrollo y el que el presente sistema de patentamiento de organismos vivos modificados fomenta intereses comerciales y no da debida importancia al desarrollo sostenible de la agricultura y ganadería en los países en desarrollo, donde más se necesita. Se reflexiona sobre la importancia que tiene evaluar los riesgos antes de introducirse en el mercado organismos genéticamente modificados y la necesidad de regulación en los países. PMID:21927675

  11. An Overview of the MATERHORN Fog Project: Observations and Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gultepe, I.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Hoch, S. W.; Silver, Z.; Creegan, E.; Leo, L. S.; Pu, Zhaoxia; De Wekker, S. F. J.; Hang, Chaoxun

    2016-09-01

    . Temperature profiles suggested that an inversion layer contributed significantly to IF formation at Heber. Ice fog forecasts via Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicated the limitations of IF predictability. Results suggest that IF predictions need to be improved based on ice microphysical parameterizations and ice nucleation processes.

  12. The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). [Annual Report for 2000

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele; Suarez, Max; Adamec, David; Koster, Randal; Schubert, Siegfried; Hansen, James; Koblinsky, Chester (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of the project is to develop an assimilation and forecast system based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-surface-sea-ice model capable of using a combination of satellite and in situ data sources to improve the prediction of ENSO and other major S-I signals and their global teleconnections. The objectives of this annual report are to: (1) demonstrate the utility of satellite data, especially surface height surface winds, air-sea fluxes and soil moisture, in a coupled model prediction system; and (2) aid in the design of the observing system for short-term climate prediction by conducting OSSE's and predictability studies.

  13. Inroads to Predict in Vivo Toxicology—An Introduction to the eTOX Project

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Katharine; Cases, Montserrat; Heard, David J.; Pastor, Manuel; Pognan, François; Sanz, Ferran; Schwab, Christof H.; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Sutter, Andreas; Watson, David K.; Wichard, Jörg D.

    2012-01-01

    There is a widespread awareness that the wealth of preclinical toxicity data that the pharmaceutical industry has generated in recent decades is not exploited as efficiently as it could be. Enhanced data availability for compound comparison (“read-across”), or for data mining to build predictive tools, should lead to a more efficient drug development process and contribute to the reduction of animal use (3Rs principle). In order to achieve these goals, a consortium approach, grouping numbers of relevant partners, is required. The eTOX (“electronic toxicity”) consortium represents such a project and is a public-private partnership within the framework of the European Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI). The project aims at the development of in silico prediction systems for organ and in vivo toxicity. The backbone of the project will be a database consisting of preclinical toxicity data for drug compounds or candidates extracted from previously unpublished, legacy reports from thirteen European and European operation-based pharmaceutical companies. The database will be enhanced by incorporation of publically available, high quality toxicology data. Seven academic institutes and five small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs) contribute with their expertise in data gathering, database curation, data mining, chemoinformatics and predictive systems development. The outcome of the project will be a predictive system contributing to early potential hazard identification and risk assessment during the drug development process. The concept and strategy of the eTOX project is described here, together with current achievements and future deliverables. PMID:22489185

  14. Inroads to predict in vivo toxicology-an introduction to the eTOX Project.

    PubMed

    Briggs, Katharine; Cases, Montserrat; Heard, David J; Pastor, Manuel; Pognan, François; Sanz, Ferran; Schwab, Christof H; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Sutter, Andreas; Watson, David K; Wichard, Jörg D

    2012-01-01

    There is a widespread awareness that the wealth of preclinical toxicity data that the pharmaceutical industry has generated in recent decades is not exploited as efficiently as it could be. Enhanced data availability for compound comparison ("read-across"), or for data mining to build predictive tools, should lead to a more efficient drug development process and contribute to the reduction of animal use (3Rs principle). In order to achieve these goals, a consortium approach, grouping numbers of relevant partners, is required. The eTOX ("electronic toxicity") consortium represents such a project and is a public-private partnership within the framework of the European Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI). The project aims at the development of in silico prediction systems for organ and in vivo toxicity. The backbone of the project will be a database consisting of preclinical toxicity data for drug compounds or candidates extracted from previously unpublished, legacy reports from thirteen European and European operation-based pharmaceutical companies. The database will be enhanced by incorporation of publically available, high quality toxicology data. Seven academic institutes and five small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs) contribute with their expertise in data gathering, database curation, data mining, chemoinformatics and predictive systems development. The outcome of the project will be a predictive system contributing to early potential hazard identification and risk assessment during the drug development process. The concept and strategy of the eTOX project is described here, together with current achievements and future deliverables.

  15. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    Treesearch

    Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

    2009-01-01

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

  16. Implementation of channel-routing routines in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Treesearch

    Li Wang; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliott; Shuhui Dun; Sergey Lapin; Fritz R. Fiedler; Dennis C. Flanagan

    2010-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous-simulation, watershed hydrology and erosion model. It is an important tool for water erosion simulation owing to its unique functionality in representing diverse landuse and management conditions. Its applicability is limited to relatively small watersheds since its current version does...

  17. International H2O Project (IHOP) 2002: Datasets Related to Atmospheric Moisture and Rainfall Prediction

    DOE Data Explorer

    Schanot, Allen [IHOP 2002 PI; Friesen, Dick [IHOP 2002 PI

    IHOP 2002 was a field experiment that took place over the Southern Great Plains of the United States from 13 May to 25 June 2002. The chief aim of IHOP_2002 was improved characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection. The region was an optimal location due to existing experimental and operational facilities, strong variability in moisture, and active convection [copied from http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/ihop/]. The project's master list of data identifies 146 publicly accessible datasets.

  18. GI-POP: a combinational annotation and genomic island prediction pipeline for ongoing microbial genome projects.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chi-Ching; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Yao, Tzu-Jung; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Lyu, Ping-Chiang; Tang, Chuan Yi

    2013-04-10

    Sequencing of microbial genomes is important because of microbial-carrying antibiotic and pathogenetic activities. However, even with the help of new assembling software, finishing a whole genome is a time-consuming task. In most bacteria, pathogenetic or antibiotic genes are carried in genomic islands. Therefore, a quick genomic island (GI) prediction method is useful for ongoing sequencing genomes. In this work, we built a Web server called GI-POP (http://gipop.life.nthu.edu.tw) which integrates a sequence assembling tool, a functional annotation pipeline, and a high-performance GI predicting module, in a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called genomic island genomic profile scanning (GI-GPS). The draft genomes of the ongoing genome projects in contigs or scaffolds can be submitted to our Web server, and it provides the functional annotation and highly probable GI-predicting results. GI-POP is a comprehensive annotation Web server designed for ongoing genome project analysis. Researchers can perform annotation and obtain pre-analytic information include possible GIs, coding/non-coding sequences and functional analysis from their draft genomes. This pre-analytic system can provide useful information for finishing a genome sequencing project.

  19. A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M.; Westberg, D.; Whitlock, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    NASA's POWER project, or the Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources project, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale. The products of the project find valuable applications in the solar and wind energy sectors of the renewable energy industries. The primary source data for the POWER project are NASA's World Climate Research Project (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Release 3.0) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (V 4.0.3). Users of the POWER products access the data through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE, Version 6.0) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov). Over 200 parameters are available to the users. The spatial resolution is 1 degree by 1 degree now and will be finer later. The data covers from July 1983 to December 2007, a time-span of 24.5 years, and are provided as 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. As of now, there have been over 18 million web hits and over 4 million data file downloads. The POWER products have been systematically validated against ground-based measurements, and in particular, data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) archive, and also against the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Parameters such as minimum, maximum, daily mean temperature and dew points, relative humidity and surface pressure are validated against the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) data. SSE feeds data directly into Decision Support Systems including RETScreen International clean energy project analysis software that is written in 36 languages and has greater than 260,000 users worldwide.

  20. Integrative Modeling Strategies for Predicting Drug Toxicities at the eTOX Project.

    PubMed

    Sanz, Ferran; Carrió, Pau; López, Oriol; Capoferri, Luigi; Kooi, Derk P; Vermeulen, Nico P E; Geerke, Daan P; Montanari, Floriane; Ecker, Gerhard F; Schwab, Christof H; Kleinöder, Thomas; Magdziarz, Tomasz; Pastor, Manuel

    2015-06-01

    Early prediction of safety issues in drug development is at the same time highly desirable and highly challenging. Recent advances emphasize the importance of understanding the whole chain of causal events leading to observable toxic outcomes. Here we describe an integrative modeling strategy based on these ideas that guided the design of eTOXsys, the prediction system used by the eTOX project. Essentially, eTOXsys consists of a central server that marshals requests to a collection of independent prediction models and offers a single user interface to the whole system. Every of such model lives in a self-contained virtual machine easy to maintain and install. All models produce toxicity-relevant predictions on their own but the results of some can be further integrated and upgrade its scale, yielding in vivo toxicity predictions. Technical aspects related with model implementation, maintenance and documentation are also discussed here. Finally, the kind of models currently implemented in eTOXsys is illustrated presenting three example models making use of diverse methodology (3D-QSAR and decision trees, Molecular Dynamics simulations and Linear Interaction Energy theory, and fingerprint-based QSAR). © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Sub-seismic Deformation Prediction of Potential Pathways and Seismic Validation - The Joint Project PROTECT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krawczyk, C. M.; Kolditz, O.

    2013-12-01

    The joint project PROTECT (PRediction Of deformation To Ensure Carbon Traps) aims to determine the existence and characteristics of sub-seismic structures that can potentially link deep reservoirs with the surface in the framework of CO2 underground storage. The research provides a new approach of assessing the long-term integrity of storage reservoirs. The objective is predicting and quantifying the distribution and the amount of sub-/seismic strain caused by fault movement in the proximity of a CO2 storage reservoir. The study is developing tools and workflows which will be tested at the CO2CRC Otway Project Site in the Otway Basin in south-western Victoria, Australia. For this purpose, we are building a geometrical kinematic 3-D model based on 2-D and 3-D seismic data that are provided by the Australian project partner, the CO2CRC Consortium. By retro-deforming the modeled subsurface faults in the inspected subsurface volume we can determine the accumulated sub-seismic deformation and thus the strain variation around the faults. Depending on lithology, the calculated strain magnitude and its orientation can be used as an indicator for fracture density. Furthermore, from the complete 3D strain tensor we can predict the orientation of fractures at sub-seismic scale. In areas where we have preliminary predicted critical deformation, we will acquire in November this year new near- surface, high resolution P- and S-wave 2-D seismic data in order to verify and calibrate our model results. Here, novel and parameter-based model building will especially benefit from extracting velocities and elastic parameters from VSP and other seismic data. Our goal is to obtain a better overview of possible fluid migration pathways and communication between reservoir and overburden. Thereby, we will provide a tool for prediction and adapted time-dependent monitoring strategies for subsurface storage in general including scientific visualization capabilities. Acknowledgement This work

  2. EPA Project Updates: DSSTox and ToxCast Generating New Data and Data Linkages for Use in Predictive Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPAs National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction. The DSSTox project is improving public access to quality structure-annotated chemical toxicity information in less summarized forms than tr...

  3. EPA Project Updates: DSSTox and ToxCast Generating New Data and Data Linkages for Use in Predictive Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPAs National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction. The DSSTox project is improving public access to quality structure-annotated chemical toxicity information in less summarized forms than tr...

  4. Low amplitude insult project: Structural analysis and prediction of low order reaction

    SciTech Connect

    Scammon, R.J.; Browning, R.V.; Middleditch, J.; Dienes, J.K.; Haberman, K.S.; Bennett, J.G.

    1998-12-31

    The low velocity impact sensitivity of PBX 9501 has been investigated through a series of experiments based on the Steven Test targets and a set of Shear Impact experiments. The authors describe calculations done using DYNA2D, SPRONTO and DYNA3D to support these, and other, low amplitude insult experiments. The calculations allow them to study pressure and strain rate variables, to investigate structural aspects of the experiment, and to predict velocities required for reaction. Structural analyses have played an active role in this project beginning with the original target design and continuing through analyses of the experimental results. Alternative designs and various ideas for active instrumentation were examined as part of the experiment evolution process. Predictions of reaction are used to guide these design studies, even though the authors do not yet have enough experimental data to fully calibrate any of the models.

  5. Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT): a naturalistic project protocol

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent and represent a significant and well described public health burden. Whilst first line psychological treatments are effective for nearly half of attenders, there remain a substantial number of patients who do not benefit. The main objective of the present project is to establish an infrastructure platform for the identification of factors that predict lack of response to psychological treatment for depression and anxiety, in order to better target treatments as well as to support translational and experimental medicine research in mood and anxiety disorders. Methods/design Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT) is a naturalistic observational project that began patient recruitment in January 2014. The project is currently taking place in Southwark Psychological Therapies Service, an Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) service currently provided by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM). However, the aim is to roll-out the project across other IAPT services. Participants are approached before beginning treatment and offered a baseline interview whilst they are waiting for therapy to begin. This allows us to test for relationships between predictor variables and patient outcome measures. At the baseline interview, participants complete a diagnostic interview; are asked to give blood and hair samples for relevant biomarkers, and complete psychological and social questionnaire measures. Participants then complete their psychological therapy as offered by Southwark Psychological Therapies Service. Response to psychological therapy will be measured using standard IAPT outcome data, which are routinely collected at each appointment. Discussion This project addresses a need to understand treatment response rates in primary care psychological therapy services for those with depression and/or anxiety. Measurement of a range of predictor variables allows for

  6. The Ability of Standardized Test Instruments to Predict Training Success and Employment Success. Project MINI-SCORE, Final Technical Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pucel, David J.; And Others

    Using post-secondary vocational and technical education students as the populations, the objectives of this project were to determine: (1) the ability of standardized instruments to predict the various criteria of success, (2) the relative ability of the different instruments to predict each criterion of success, and (3) which sub-set of all of…

  7. Predicting and mapping potential Whooping Crane stopover habitat to guide site selection for wind energy projects.

    PubMed

    Belaire, J Amy; Kreakie, Betty J; Keitt, Timothy; Minor, Emily

    2014-04-01

    Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Hypoxia and Outcome Prediction in Early-Stage Coma (Project HOPE): an observational prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lopez-Rolon, Alex; Bender, Andreas

    2015-05-15

    The number of resuscitated cardiac arrest patients suffering from anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy is considerable. However, outcome prediction parameters such as somatosensory evoked potentials need revision because they are based on data predating the implementation of mild therapeutical hypothermia and because data from our own laboratory suggest that they may fail to predict prognosis accurately. The present research project "Hypoxia and Outcome Prediction in Early-Stage Coma" is an ongoing observational prospective cohort study that aims to improve outcome prediction in anoxic coma by limiting the effects of falsely pessimistic predictions at the intensive care unit. Our outcome analysis is based on functional and behavioural definitions. This implies the analysis of the positive predictive value of prognostic markers yielding either positive or negative results. We also analyse the effect of covariates adjusted for age and sex such as sociodemographic variables, prognostic variables and treatment factors on functional and behavioural outcomes, with mixed effects regression models (i.e. fixed and random effects). We expect to enrol 172 patients based on the result of previous research. The null hypothesis is that there is a probability of <10 % that a positive outcome will be observed despite the presence of any of the predictors of a poor/negative outcome. We test the null hypothesis against a one-sided alternative using a Simon's two-stage design to determine whether it is warranted to recruit the full number of patients suggested by a power analysis. The second stage has a design with a Type I error rate of 0.05 and 80 % power if the true response rate is 25 %. We aim to make a significant contribution to the revision and improvement of current outcome prediction methods in anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy patients. As a result, neurocritical care specialists worldwide will have considerably more accurate methods for prognosticating the outcome of anoxic

  9. Toward a unified system for understanding, predicting and projecting regional hurricane activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Delworth, T. L.; Yang, X.; Murakami, H.; Zhang, W.; Underwood, S.; Zeng, F. J.; Jia, L.; Kapnick, S. B.; Paffendorf, K.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Msadek, R.; Villarini, G.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.; Harris, L.; Gudgel, R.; Stern, B.; Zhang, S.

    2015-12-01

    A family of high-resolution (50km and 25km atmospheric/land resolution) global coupled climate models provide a unified framework towards the understanding, intraseasonal-to-decadal prediction and decadal to multi-decadal projection of regional and extreme climate, including tropical cyclones. Initialized predictions of global hurricane activity show skill on regional scales, comparable to the skill on basin-wide scales, suggesting that regional seasonal TC predictions may be a feasible forecast target. The 25km version of the model shows skill at seasonal predictions of the frequency of the most intense hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5 and Cat. 4-5). It is shown that large-scale systematic errors in the mean-state are a key constraint on the simulation and prediction of variations of regional climate and extremes, and methodologies for overcoming model biases are explored. Improvements in predictions of regional climate are due both to improved representation of local processes, and to improvements in the large-scale climate and variability from improved process representation. These models are used to explore the the response of tropical cyclones, both globally and regionally, to increasing greenhouse gases and to internal climate variations. The 25km model in generally shows a more faithful representation of the impact of climate variability on hurricane activity than the 50km model. The response of the total number and the total power dissipation index of tropical cyclones to increasing greenhouse gases can differ substantially between models of two atmospheric resolutions, 50km and 25km - with the 25km version of the model showing a larger increase in power dissipation from increasing greenhouse gases, principally because - in contrast to that of the 50km model - its global hurricane frequency does not decrease with increasing CO2. Some thoughts on the reasons behind those differences will be offered. The 25km model shows an increase in the frequency of intense tropical

  10. The ARCANE Project: How an Ecological Dynamics Framework Can Enhance Performance Assessment and Prediction in Football.

    PubMed

    Couceiro, Micael S; Dias, Gonçalo; Araújo, Duarte; Davids, Keith

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses how an ecological dynamics framework can be implemented to interpret data, design practice tasks and interpret athletic performance in collective sports, exemplified here by research ideas within the Augmented peRCeption ANalysis framEwork for Football (ARCANE) project promoting an augmented perception of football teams for scientists and practitioners. An ecological dynamics rationale can provide an interpretation of athletes' positional and physiological data during performance, using new methods to assess athletes' behaviours in real-time and, to some extent, predict health and performance outcomes. The proposed approach signals practical applications for coaches, sports analysts, exercise physiologists and practitioners through merging a large volume of data into a smaller set of variables, resulting in a deeper analysis than typical measures of performance outcomes of competitive games.

  11. Projection-free parallel quadratic programming for linear model predictive control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Cairano, S.; Brand, M.; Bortoff, S. A.

    2013-08-01

    A key component in enabling the application of model predictive control (MPC) in fields such as automotive, aerospace, and factory automation is the availability of low-complexity fast optimisation algorithms to solve the MPC finite horizon optimal control problem in architectures with reduced computational capabilities. In this paper, we introduce a projection-free iterative optimisation algorithm and discuss its application to linear MPC. The algorithm, originally developed by Brand for non-negative quadratic programs, is based on a multiplicative update rule and it is shown to converge to a fixed point which is the optimum. An acceleration technique based on a projection-free line search is also introduced, to speed-up the convergence to the optimum. The algorithm is applied to MPC through the dual of the quadratic program (QP) formulated from the MPC finite time optimal control problem. We discuss how termination conditions with guaranteed degree of suboptimality can be enforced, and how the algorithm performance can be optimised by pre-computing the matrices in a parametric form. We show computational results of the algorithm in three common case studies and we compare such results with the results obtained by other available free and commercial QP solvers.

  12. Recording A Sunrise: A Citizen Science Project to Enhance Sunrise/set Prediction Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Teresa; Chizek Frouard, Malynda; Bartlett, Jennifer L.

    2017-01-01

    Smartphones, with their ever increasing capabilities, are becoming quite instrumental for data acquisition in a number of fields. Understanding refraction and how it affects what we see on the horizon is no exception. Current algorithms that predict sunrise and sunset times have an error of one to four minutes at mid-latitudes (0° - 55° N/S) due to limitations in the atmospheric models they incorporate. At higher latitudes, slight changes in refraction can cause significant discrepancies, even including difficulties determining when the Sun appears to rise or set. A thorough investigation of the problem requires a substantial data set of observed rise/set times and corresponding meteorological data from around the world, which is currently lacking. We have developed a mobile application so that this data can be taken using smartphones as part of a citizen science project. The app allows the viewer to submit a video of sunrise/set and attaches geographic location along with meteorological data taken from a local weather station. The project will help increase scientific awareness in the public by allowing members of the community to participate in the data-taking process, and give them a greater awareness of the scientific significance of phenomenon they witness every day. The data from the observations will lead to more complete rise/set models that will provide more accurate times to the benefit of astronomers, navigators, and outdoorsmen. The app will be available on the Google Play Store.

  13. Predicting project environmental performance under market uncertainties: case study of oil sands coke.

    PubMed

    McKellar, Jennifer M; Bergerson, Joule A; Kettunen, Janne; MacLean, Heather L

    2013-06-04

    A method combining life cycle assessment (LCA) and real options analyses is developed to predict project environmental and financial performance over time, under market uncertainties and decision-making flexibility. The method is applied to examine alternative uses for oil sands coke, a carbonaceous byproduct of processing the unconventional petroleum found in northern Alberta, Canada. Under uncertainties in natural gas price and the imposition of a carbon price, our method identifies that selling the coke to China for electricity generation by integrated gasification combined cycle is likely to be financially preferred initially, but eventually hydrogen production in Alberta is likely to be preferred. Compared to the results of a previous study that used life cycle costing to identify the financially preferred alternative, the inclusion of real options analysis adds value as it accounts for flexibility in decision-making (e.g., to delay investment), increasing the project's expected net present value by 25% and decreasing the expected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. Different formulations of the carbon pricing policy or changes to the natural gas price forecast alter these findings. The combined LCA/real options method provides researchers and decision-makers with more comprehensive information than can be provided by either technique alone.

  14. Projecting the performance of risk prediction based on polygenic analyses of genome-wide association studies

    PubMed Central

    Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Wheeler, Bill; Sampson, Joshua; Hartge, Patricia; Chanock, Stephen J.; Park, Ju-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    We report a new model to project the predictive performance of polygenic models based on the number and distribution of effect sizes for the underlying susceptibility alleles and the size of the training dataset. Using estimates of effect-size distribution and heritability derived from current studies, we project that while 45% of the variance of height has been attributed to common tagging Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP), a model trained on one million people may only explain 33.4% of variance of the trait. Current studies can identify 3.0%, 1.1%, and 7.0%, of the populations who are at two-fold or higher than average risk for Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and prostate cancer, respectively. Tripling of sample sizes could elevate the percentages to 18.8%, 6.1%, and 12.2%, respectively. The utility of future polygenic models will depend on achievable sample sizes, underlying genetic architecture and information on other risk-factors, including family history. PMID:23455638

  15. NERI PROJECT 99-119. TASK 2. DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTION OF PROCESS VARIABLES. FINAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    Upadhyaya, B.R.

    2003-04-10

    This report describes the detailed results for task 2 of DOE-NERI project number 99-119 entitled ''Automatic Development of Highly Reliable Control Architecture for Future Nuclear Power Plants''. This project is a collaboration effort between the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL,) The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and the North Carolina State University (NCSU). UTK is the lead organization for Task 2 under contract number DE-FG03-99SF21906. Under task 2 we completed the development of data-driven models for the characterization of sub-system dynamics for predicting state variables, control functions, and expected control actions. We have also developed the ''Principal Component Analysis (PCA)'' approach for mapping system measurements, and a nonlinear system modeling approach called the ''Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH)'' with rational functions, and includes temporal data information for transient characterization. The majority of the results are presented in detailed reports for Phases 1 through 3 of our research, which are attached to this report.

  16. Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

    2013-04-01

    Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia

  17. The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backhaus, Thomas; Altenburger, Rolf; Arrhenius, Åsa; Blanck, Hans; Faust, Michael; Finizio, Antonio; Gramatica, Paola; Grote, Matthias; Junghans, Marion; Meyer, Wiebke; Pavan, Manuela; Porsbring, Tobias; Scholze, Martin; Todeschini, Roberto; Vighi, Marco; Walter, Helge; Horst Grimme, L.

    2003-11-01

    Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context. In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and

  18. Geothermal Project Den Haag - 3-D models for temperature prediction and reservoir characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mottaghy, D.; Pechnig, R.; Willemsen, G.; Simmelink, H. J.; Vandeweijer, V.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the "Den Haag Zuidwest" geothermal district heating system a deep geothermal installation is projected. The target horizon of the planned doublet is the "Delft sandstone" which has been extensively explored for oil- and gas reservoirs in the last century. In the target area, this upper Jurassic sandstone layer is found at a depth of about 2300 m with an average thickness of about 50 m. The study presented here focuses on the prediction of reservoir temperatures and production behavior which is crucial for planning a deep geothermal installation. In the first phase, the main objective was to find out whether there is a significant influence of the 3-dimensional structures of anticlines and synclines on the temperature field, which could cause formation temperatures deviating from the predicted extrapolated temperature data from oil and gas exploration wells. To this end a regional model was set up as a basis for steady state numerical simulations. Since representative input parameters are decisive for reliable model results, all available information was compiled: a) the subsurface geometry, depth and thickness of the stratigraphic layers known from seismic data sets 2) borehole geophysical data and c) geological and petrographical information from exploration wells. In addition 50 cuttings samples were taken from two selected key wells in order to provide direct information on thermal properties of the underlying strata. Thermal conductivity and rock matrix density were measured in the laboratory. These data were combined with a petrophysical log analysis (Gamma Ray, Sonic, Density and Resistivity), which resulted in continuous profiles of porosity, effective thermal conductivity and radiogenetic heat production. These profiles allowed to asses in detail the variability of the petrophysical properties with depth and to check for lateral changes between the wells. All this data entered the numerical simulations which were performed by a 3-D

  19. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  20. EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox)-overview and outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-04-15

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and 'omics' technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of 'omics' and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that 'omics' technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated 'omics' analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  1. Introduction of the NWP Model Development Project at Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems - KIAPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) launched a 9-year project in 2011 to develop Korea's own global NWP system with the total funding of about 100 million US dollars. To lead the effort, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) was founded by KMA as a non-profit foundation. The project consists of three stages. We are in the middle of the first stage (2011-2013), which is to set up the Institute, recruit researchers, lay out plans for the research and development, and design the basic structure and explore/develop core NWP technologies. The second stage (2014-2016) aims at developing the modules for the dynamical core, physical parameterizations and data assimilation systems as well as the system framework and couplers to connect the modules in a systematic and efficient way, and eventually building a prototype NWP system. The third stage (2017-2019) is for evaluating the prototype system by selecting/improving modules, and refining/finalizing it for operational use at KMA as well as developing necessary post-processing systems. In 2012, we are designing key modules for the dynamical core by adopting existing and/or developing new cores, and developing the barographic model first and the baroclinic model later with code parallelization and optimization in mind. We are collecting various physical parameterization schemes, mostly developed by Korean scientists, and evaluating and improving them by using single-column and LES models, etc. We are designing control variables for variational data assimilation systems, constructing testbeds for observational data pre-processing systems, developing linear models for a barographic system, designing modules for cost function minimization. We are developing the module framework, which is flexible for prognostic and diagnostic variables, designing the I/O structure of the system, coupling modules for external systems, and also developing post-processing systems. At the meeting, we will present the

  2. Prediction of sub-seismic faults and fractures to ensure carbon traps - joint project PROTECT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziesch, Jennifer; Tanner, David C.; Beilecke, Thies; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.

    2015-04-01

    Deformation in the form of fractures and faults affects many reservoirs and their overburden. In a 3-D seismic data set we can identify faults on the large scale, while in well data we observe small-scale fractures. A large number of faults at the intermediate scale (sub-seismic space) also plays a very important role, but these are not detectable with conventional geophysical methods. Therefore, we use the retro-deformation approach within the context of long-term CO2 storage integrity to determine the characteristics of potential fluid migration pathways between reservoir and surface. This allows to produce strain maps, in order to analyse fault behaviour in the sub-seismic space. As part of the PROTECT (prediction of deformation to ensure carbon traps) project we focus on the sub-seismic faults of the CO2CRC Otway Project site in Australia. We interpreted a geological 3-D model of 8 km x 7 km x 4.5 km that comprises 8 stratigraphic horizons and 24 large-scale faults. This confirmed the site to contain a complex system of south-dipping normal faults and north-dipping antithetic normal faults. The most important aspect is that two different types of fault kinematics were simultaneously active: Dip-slip and a combination of dip-slip with dextral strike slip movement. After the retro-deformation of the 3-D model we calculated strain tensor maps to locate highly deformed or fractured zones and their orientation within the stratigraphic volume. The e1-strain magnitude shows heterogeneous distribution. The south of the study area is at least twice as much fractured on a sub-seismic scale. Four major faults act as "controlling faults" with smaller faults in between. The overburden is tilted northwards after retro-deformation. Thus, we believe that the area was affected by an even larger normal fault outside of the study area. In summary, this study reveals that good knowledge of the kinematics of the large-scale faults is essential to predict sub-seismic structures

  3. Calcium dynamics predict direction of synaptic plasticity in striatal spiny projection neurons.

    PubMed

    Jędrzejewska-Szmek, Joanna; Damodaran, Sriraman; Dorman, Daniel B; Blackwell, Kim T

    2017-04-01

    The striatum is a major site of learning and memory formation for sensorimotor and cognitive association. One of the mechanisms used by the brain for memory storage is synaptic plasticity - the long-lasting, activity-dependent change in synaptic strength. All forms of synaptic plasticity require an elevation in intracellular calcium, and a common hypothesis is that the amplitude and duration of calcium transients can determine the direction of synaptic plasticity. The utility of this hypothesis in the striatum is unclear in part because dopamine is required for striatal plasticity and in part because of the diversity in stimulation protocols. To test whether calcium can predict plasticity direction, we developed a calcium-based plasticity rule using a spiny projection neuron model with sophisticated calcium dynamics including calcium diffusion, buffering and pump extrusion. We utilized three spike timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) induction protocols, in which postsynaptic potentials are paired with precisely timed action potentials and the timing of such pairing determines whether potentiation or depression will occur. Results show that despite the variation in calcium dynamics, a single, calcium-based plasticity rule, which explicitly considers duration of calcium elevations, can explain the direction of synaptic weight change for all three STDP protocols. Additional simulations show that the plasticity rule correctly predicts the NMDA receptor dependence of long-term potentiation and the L-type channel dependence of long-term depression. By utilizing realistic calcium dynamics, the model reveals mechanisms controlling synaptic plasticity direction, and shows that the dynamics of calcium, not just calcium amplitude, are crucial for synaptic plasticity. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollis, Brian R.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Coblish, Joseph J.; Norris, Joseph D.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.

    2009-01-01

    An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the

  5. Delineation of homogenous regions using hydrological variables predicted by projection pursuit regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durocher, Martin; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the utilization of hydrological information in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to enforce desired properties for a group of gauged stations. Neighbourhoods are particular types of regions that are centred on target locations. A challenge for using neighbourhoods in RFFA is that hydrological information is not available at target locations and cannot be completely replaced by the available physiographical information. Instead of using the available physiographic characteristics to define the centre of a target location, this study proposes to introduce estimates of reference hydrological variables to ensure a better homogeneity. These reference variables represent nonlinear relations with the site characteristics obtained by projection pursuit regression, a nonparametric regression method. The resulting neighbourhoods are investigated in combination with commonly used regional models: the index-flood model and regression-based models. The complete approach is illustrated in a real-world case study with gauged sites from the southern part of the province of Québec, Canada, and is compared with the traditional approaches such as region of influence and canonical correlation analysis. The evaluation focuses on the neighbourhood properties as well as prediction performances, with special attention devoted to problematic stations. Results show clear improvements in neighbourhood definitions and quantile estimates.

  6. The land use plan and water quality prediction for the Saemangeum reclamation project.

    PubMed

    Hwang, D H; Choi, J Y; Yi, S M; Han, D H; Jang, S H

    2009-01-01

    As the final closure of the world's longest sea dike of 33 km, the use of the Saemangeum reclaimed land becomes an issue in Korea. The Korean government has proclaimed that the Saemangeum Reclamation Project will be handled in an environmentally friendly manner but its effect on the water quality of reservoirs has always been controversial. This study was conducted to estimate the water quality of the Saemangeum reservoir using WASP5 according to the new land use plan adopted in 2007. Predictions on water quality shows that Dongjin reservoir would meet the standards for COD, T-P, and Chl-a if the wastewater from the Dongjin region was properly managed. However, T-P and Chl-a in Mangyeong reservoir would exceed the standards even without releasing the treated wastewater into the reservoir. With further reductions of 20% for T-P and Chl-a from the mouth of Mangyeong river, the water quality standards in the reservoir were achieved. This means that additional schemes, as well as water quality management programs established in the Government Master Plan in 2001, should be considered. Although the Saemangeum reservoir would manage to achieve the standards, it will enter a eutrophic state due to the high concentration of nutrients.

  7. Enhancements to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) for modeling large snow-dominated mountainous forest watersheds

    Treesearch

    Anurag Srivastava; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Erin S. Brooks

    2015-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, originally developed for hillslope and small watershed applications, simulates complex interactive processes influencing erosion. Recent incorporations to the model have improved the subsurface hydrology components for forest applications. Incorporation of channel routing has made the WEPP model well suited for large...

  8. Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

    Treesearch

    Erin S. Brooks; Mariana Dobre; William J. Elliot; Joan Q. Wu; Jan Boll

    2016-01-01

    Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to...

  9. The CONVEX project - Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, Hayley; Kendon, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Chan, Steven; Ferro, Christopher; Roberts, Nigel; Stephenson, David; Jones, Richard; Sessford, Pat

    2013-04-01

    During the last decade, widespread major flood events in the UK and across the rest of Europe have focussed attention on perceived increases in rainfall intensities. Whilst Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to simulate the magnitude and spatial pattern of observed daily extreme rainfall events more reliably than Global Circulation Models (GCMs), they still underestimate extreme rainfall in relation to observations. Particularly during the summer a large proportion of the precipitation comes from convective storms that are typically too small to be explicitly represented by climate models. Instead, convection parameterisation schemes are necessary to represent the larger-scale effect of unresolved convective cells. Given the deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall by climate models, even in the current generation of high-resolution RCMs, the CONVEX project (CONVective EXtremes) argues that an integrated approach is needed that brings together observations, basic understanding and models. This should go hand in hand with a change from a focus on traditional validation exercises (comparing modelled and observed extremes) to an understanding and quantification of the causes of model deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall processes on different spatial and temporal scales. It is particularly true for localised intense summer convection. CONVEX therefore aims to contribute to the goals of enabling society to respond to global climate change and predicting the regional and local impacts of environmental change. In addition to an improved understanding of the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall processes (principally in the UK) the project is also assessing the influence of model parameterisations and resolution on the simulation of extreme rainfall events and processes. This includes the running of new RCM simulations undertaken by the UK Meteorological Office at 50km and 12km resolutions (parameterised convection) and

  10. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  11. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dun, Shuhui; Wu, Joan Q.; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Flanagan, Dennis C.; Frankenberger, James R.; Brown, Robert E.; Xu, Arthur C.

    2009-03-01

    SummaryThere has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of runoff, such as modeling erosion from roads, harvested units, and burned areas by wildfire or prescribed fire. Nevertheless, when used for modeling water flow and sediment discharge from natural forest watersheds where subsurface flow is dominant, WEPP (v2004.7) underestimates these quantities, in particular, the water flow at the watershed outlet. The main goal of this study was to improve the WEPP v2004.7 so that it can be applied to adequately simulate forest watershed hydrology and erosion. The specific objectives were to modify WEPP v2004.7 algorithms and subroutines that improperly represent forest subsurface hydrologic processes; and, to assess the performance of the modified model by applying it to a research forest watershed in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Changes were made in WEPP v2004.7 to better model percolation of soil water and subsurface lateral flow. The modified model, WEPP v2008.9, was applied to the Hermada watershed located in the Boise National Forest, in southern Idaho, USA. The results from v2008.9 and v2004.7 as well as the field observations were compared. For the period of 1995-2000, average annual precipitation for the study area was 954 mm. Simulated annual watershed discharge was negligible using WEPP v2004.7, and was 262 mm using WEPP v2008.9, agreeable with field-observed 275 mm.

  12. Evaluation of numerical weather predictions performed in the context of the project DAPHNE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Bampzelis, Dimitris; Karacostas, Theodore

    2014-05-01

    The region of Thessaly in central Greece is one of the main areas of agricultural production in Greece. Severe weather phenomena affect the agricultural production in this region with adverse effects for farmers and the national economy. For this reason the project DAPHNE aims at tackling the problem of drought by means of weather modification through the development of the necessary tools to support the application of a rainfall enhancement program. In the present study the numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW is used, in order to assess its ability to represent extreme weather phenomena in the region of Thessaly. WRF is integrated in three domains covering Europe, Eastern Mediterranean and Central-Northern Greece (Thessaly and a large part of Macedonia) using telescoping nesting with grid spacing of 15km, 5km and 1.667km, respectively. The cases examined span throughout the transitional and warm period (April to September) of the years 2008 to 2013, including days with thunderstorm activity. Model results are evaluated against all available surface observations and radar products, taking into account the spatial characteristics and intensity of the storms. Preliminary results indicate a good level of agreement between the simulated and observed fields as far as the standard parameters (such as temperature, humidity and precipitation) are concerned. Moreover, the model generally exhibits a potential to represent the occurrence of the convective activity, but not its exact spatiotemporal characteristics. Acknowledgements This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013)

  13. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

    DOE PAGES

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

    2016-06-06

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

  14. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

    SciTech Connect

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

    2016-06-06

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

  15. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies.

    PubMed

    DeRolph, Christopher R; Schramm, Michael P; Bevelhimer, Mark S

    2016-10-01

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multi-faceted explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements are functions of a range of factors, from biophysical to socio-political. Project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

  16. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

    SciTech Connect

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

    2016-06-06

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

  17. 3-D Projected L1 inversion of gravity data using truncated unbiased predictive risk estimator for regularization parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vatankhah, Saeed; Renaut, Rosemary A.; Ardestani, Vahid E.

    2017-09-01

    Sparse inversion of gravity data based on L1-norm regularization is discussed. An iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm is used to solve the problem. At each iteration the solution of a linear system of equations and the determination of a suitable regularization parameter are considered. The LSQR iteration is used to project the system of equations onto a smaller subspace that inherits the ill-conditioning of the full space problem. We show that the gravity kernel is only mildly to moderately ill-conditioned. Thus, while the dominant spectrum of the projected problem accurately approximates the dominant spectrum of the full space problem, the entire spectrum of the projected problem inherits the ill-conditioning of the full problem. Consequently, determining the regularization parameter based on the entire spectrum of the projected problem necessarily over compensates for the non-dominant portion of the spectrum and leads to inaccurate approximations for the full-space solution. In contrast, finding the regularization parameter using a truncated singular space of the projected operator is efficient and effective. Simulations for synthetic examples with noise demonstrate the approach using the method of unbiased predictive risk estimation for the truncated projected spectrum. The method is used on gravity data from the Mobrun ore body, northeast of Noranda, Quebec, Canada. The 3-D reconstructed model is in agreement with known drill-hole information.

  18. Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

    EPA Science Inventory

    Migration is one of the most poorly understood components of a bird’s life cycle. For that reason, migratory stopover habitats are often not part of conservation planning and may be overlooked when planning new development projects. This project highlights and addresses an overl...

  19. Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

    EPA Science Inventory

    Migration is one of the most poorly understood components of a bird’s life cycle. For that reason, migratory stopover habitats are often not part of conservation planning and may be overlooked when planning new development projects. This project highlights and addresses an overl...

  20. Differential subsidence and its effect on subsurface infrastructure: predicting probability of pipeline failure (STOOP project)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, Renée; Dabekaussen, Willem; Hijma, Marc; Wiersma, Ane; Abspoel-Bukman, Linda; Boeije, Remco; Courage, Wim; van der Geest, Johan; Hamburg, Marc; Harmsma, Edwin; Helmholt, Kristian; van den Heuvel, Frank; Kruse, Henk; Langius, Erik; Lazovik, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Due to heterogeneity of the subsurface in the delta environment of the Netherlands, differential subsidence over short distances results in tension and subsequent wear of subsurface infrastructure, such as water and gas pipelines. Due to uncertainties in the build-up of the subsurface, however, it is unknown where this problem is the most prominent. This is a problem for asset managers deciding when a pipeline needs replacement: damaged pipelines endanger security of supply and pose a significant threat to safety, yet premature replacement raises needless expenses. In both cases, costs - financial or other - are high. Therefore, an interdisciplinary research team of geotechnicians, geologists and Big Data engineers from research institutes TNO, Deltares and SkyGeo developed a stochastic model to predict differential subsidence and the probability of consequent pipeline failure on a (sub-)street level. In this project pipeline data from company databases is combined with a stochastic geological model and information on (historical) groundwater levels and overburden material. Probability of pipeline failure is modelled by a coupling with a subsidence model and two separate models on pipeline behaviour under stress, using a probabilistic approach. The total length of pipelines (approx. 200.000 km operational in the Netherlands) and the complexity of the model chain that is needed to calculate a chance of failure, results in large computational challenges, as it requires massive evaluation of possible scenarios to reach the required level of confidence. To cope with this, a scalable computational infrastructure has been developed, composing a model workflow in which components have a heterogeneous technological basis. Three pilot areas covering an urban, a rural and a mixed environment, characterised by different groundwater-management strategies and different overburden histories, are used to evaluate the differences in subsidence and uncertainties that come with

  1. The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2005

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    environment of ocean ecosystems. Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate system in the past 40...years occurred in the oceans. Climate stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching ...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2005 Dean H

  2. The Ago Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2005

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    defining the physical environment of ocean ecosystems. Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate... coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a varying climate on the health of the seas and coastal ecosystems will become an increasingly...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2005 Dean H

  3. The ARGO Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2004

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-01-01

    Over 90% of the increased heat content due to global warming of the air/sea/ice climate system in the past 40 years occurred in the oceans. Climate...stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a...The Argo Project Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability Report for Calendar Year 2004 Dean H

  4. Assessing the capability of numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion: the Euroseistest verification and validation project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaljub, E. O.; Bard, P.; Tsuno, S.; Kristek, J.; Moczo, P.; Franek, P.; Hollender, F.; Manakou, M.; Raptakis, D.; Pitilakis, K.

    2009-12-01

    During the last decades, an important effort has been dedicated to develop accurate and computationally efficient numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion in heterogeneous 3D media. The progress in methods and increasing capability of computers have made it technically feasible to calculate realistic seismograms for frequencies of interest in seismic design applications. In order to foster the use of numerical simulation in practical prediction, it is important to (1) evaluate the accuracy of current numerical methods when applied to realistic 3D applications where no reference solution exists (verification) and (2) quantify the agreement between recorded and numerically simulated earthquake ground motion (validation). Here we report the results of the Euroseistest verification and validation project - an ongoing international collaborative work organized jointly by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, the Cashima research project (supported by the French nuclear agency, CEA, and the Laue-Langevin institute, ILL, Grenoble), and the Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France. The project involves more than 10 international teams from Europe, Japan and USA. The teams employ the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM), the Global Pseudospectral Method (GPSM), the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and the Discrete Element Method (DEM). The project makes use of a new detailed 3D model of the Mygdonian basin (about 5 km wide, 15 km long, sediments reach about 400 m depth, surface S-wave velocity is 200 m/s). The prime target is to simulate 8 local earthquakes with magnitude from 3 to 5. In the verification, numerical predictions for frequencies up to 4 Hz for a series of models with increasing structural and rheological complexity are analyzed and compared using quantitative time-frequency goodness-of-fit criteria. Predictions obtained by one FDM team and the SEM team are close and different from other predictions

  5. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    PubMed Central

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  6. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  7. From Sub-Seasonal Prediction to Action: The Role of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) in Promoting Forecasting Science and Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Vitart, F.; Ruti, P.; Rixen, M.

    2016-12-01

    The World Weather and World Climate Research Programme's Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) aims to provide predictions from two weeks to two months ahead. This is a critical timescale as the lead time is sufficiently long that much of the memory of the e.g. atmospheric initial conditions is lost and it is too short a timescale for the variability of e.g. the ocean to have a strong influence. The lead time is also long enough to allow decision makers time to take preventative action to help mitigate the impacts of high-impact weather events. Catalyzing innovation in this area requires an appropriate framework where ideas and research translate into new tools and future downstream services. Nowadays regional and local issues at the weather-climate nexus call for closer collaboration between research and operational groups to consistently deliver high-quality solutions, beyond the traditional "transfer research to operation" paradigm. This contribution will provide a status update of the S2S project, including training activities, the S2S forecast data base, and summarize progress to date on creating regional S2S science-to-service exemplars in Africa, South America and Asia.

  8. Toward Evaluating the Predictability of Arctic-related Climate Variations: Initial Results from ArCS Project Theme 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasumi, H.

    2016-12-01

    We present initial results from the theme 5 of the project ArCS, which is a national flagship project for Arctic research in Japan. The goal of theme 5 is to evaluate the predictability of Arctic-related climate variations, wherein we aim to: (1) establish the scientific basis of climate predictability; and (2) develop a method for predicting/projecting medium- and long-term climate variations. Variability in the Arctic environment remotely influences middle and low latitudes. Since some of the processes specific to the Arctic environment function as a long memory of the state of the climate, understanding of the process of remote connections would lead to higher-precision and longer-term prediction of global climate variations. Conventional climate models have large uncertainty in the Arctic region. By making Arctic processes in climate models more sophisticated, we aim to clarify the role of multi-sphere interaction in the Arctic environment. In this regard, our newly developed high resolution ice-ocean model has revealed the relationship between the oceanic heat transport into the Arctic Ocean and the synoptic scale atmospheric variability. We also aim to reveal the mechanism of remote connections by conducting climate simulations and analyzing various types of climate datasets. Our atmospheric model experiments under possible future situations of Arctic sea ice cover indicate that reduction of sea ice qualitatively alters the basic mechanism of remote connection. Also, our analyses of climate data have identified the cause of recent more frequent heat waves at Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes and clarified the dynamical process which forms the West Pacific pattern, a dominant mode of the atmospheric anomalous circulation in the West Pacific region which also exhibits a significant signal in the Arctic stratosphere.

  9. Weather predictions and surface radiation estimates for Project Palanquin: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-05-01

    The Environmental Science Services Administration Field Research Office (ESSA/FRO) provided weather planning and prediction for the Safety Program of the Palanquin Event. Observations of winds and weather conditions began prior to the event and the weather and radioactivity forecasting service commenced on April 7, the initial ready date. During the following week, the winds and weather conditions were sufficiently abnormal that the planned firing criteria were not met, resulting in delays. Acceptable weather occurred on April 14, and all meteorological criteria were met. Trajectories followed reasonably close to predictions, but exposure levels exceeded predictions. 1 ref., 14 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Predictive In Vitro Screening of Environmental Chemicals – The ToxCast Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    ToxCast, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s chemical prioritization research program, is developing methods for utilizing computational chemistry and bioactivity profiling to predict potential for toxicity and prioritize limited testing resources (www.epa.gov/toc...

  11. Predictive In Vitro Screening of Environmental Chemicals – The ToxCast Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    ToxCast, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s chemical prioritization research program, is developing methods for utilizing computational chemistry and bioactivity profiling to predict potential for toxicity and prioritize limited testing resources (www.epa.gov/toc...

  12. Performance predictions for mechanical excavators in Yucca Mountain tuffs; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Ozdemir, L.; Gertsch, L.; Neil, D.; Friant, J.

    1992-09-01

    The performances of several mechanical excavators are predicted for use in the tuffs at Yucca Mountain: Tunnel boring machines, the Mobile Miner, a roadheader, a blind shaft borer, a vertical wheel shaft boring machine, raise drills, and V-Moles. Work summarized is comprised of three parts: Initial prediction using existing rock physical property information; Measurement of additional rock physical properties; and Revision of the initial predictions using the enhanced database. The performance predictions are based on theoretical and empirical relationships between rock properties and the forces-experienced by rock cutters and bits during excavation. Machine backup systems and excavation design aspects, such as curves and grades, are considered in determining excavator utilization factors. Instanteous penetration rate, advance rate, and cutter costs are the fundamental performance indicators.

  13. Prediction of mode specificity in 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions using the Sudden Vector Projection model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Anyang; Guo, Hua

    2015-03-01

    Mode specificity in the cycloaddition of 1,3-dipoles to ethene and ethyne is investigated with the newly proposed Sudden Vector Projection (SVP) model, which attributes the promoting ability of a reactant mode to its projection onto the reaction coordinate at the transition state. The SVP model revealed that dipole bending and translational modes have large components in the reaction coordinate, consistent with the recent direct dynamics studies. It further identified several other promoting modes. The success of the SVP model is encouraging as it requires no dynamics calculations, and as a result it can be applied to many reactions.

  14. Retrospective Exposure Estimation and Predicted versus Observed Serum Perfluorooctanoic Acid Concentrations for Participants in the C8 Health Project

    PubMed Central

    Vieira, Verónica M.; Ryan, P. Barry; Steenland, Kyle; Bartell, Scott M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: People living or working in eastern Ohio and western West Virginia have been exposed to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) released by DuPont Washington Works facilities. Objectives: Our objective was to estimate historical PFOA exposures and serum concentrations experienced by 45,276 non-occupationally exposed participants in the C8 Health Project who consented to share their residential histories and a 2005–2006 serum PFOA measurement. Methods: We estimated annual PFOA exposure rates for each individual based on predicted calibrated water concentrations and predicted air concentrations using an environmental fate and transport model, individual residential histories, and maps of public water supply networks. We coupled individual exposure estimates with a one-compartment absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) model to estimate time-dependent serum concentrations. Results: For all participants (n = 45,276), predicted and observed median serum concentrations in 2005–2006 are 14.2 and 24.3 ppb, respectively [Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (rs) = 0.67]. For participants who provided daily public well water consumption rate and who had the same residence and workplace in one of six municipal water districts for 5 years before the serum sample (n = 1,074), predicted and observed median serum concentrations in 2005–2006 are 32.2 and 40.0 ppb, respectively (rs = 0.82). Conclusions: Serum PFOA concentrations predicted by linked exposure and ADME models correlated well with observed 2005–2006 human serum concentrations for C8 Health Project participants. These individualized retrospective exposure and serum estimates are being used in a variety of epidemiologic studies being conducted in this region. PMID:21813367

  15. Retrospective exposure estimation and predicted versus observed serum perfluorooctanoic acid concentrations for participants in the C8 Health Project.

    PubMed

    Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Verónica M; Ryan, P Barry; Steenland, Kyle; Bartell, Scott M

    2011-12-01

    People living or working in eastern Ohio and western West Virginia have been exposed to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) released by DuPont Washington Works facilities. Our objective was to estimate historical PFOA exposures and serum concentrations experienced by 45,276 non-occupationally exposed participants in the C8 Health Project who consented to share their residential histories and a 2005-2006 serum PFOA measurement. We estimated annual PFOA exposure rates for each individual based on predicted calibrated water concentrations and predicted air concentrations using an environmental fate and transport model, individual residential histories, and maps of public water supply networks. We coupled individual exposure estimates with a one-compartment absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) model to estimate time-dependent serum concentrations. For all participants (n = 45,276), predicted and observed median serum concentrations in 2005-2006 are 14.2 and 24.3 ppb, respectively [Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (r(s)) = 0.67]. For participants who provided daily public well water consumption rate and who had the same residence and workplace in one of six municipal water districts for 5 years before the serum sample (n = 1,074), predicted and observed median serum concentrations in 2005-2006 are 32.2 and 40.0 ppb, respectively (r(s) = 0.82). Serum PFOA concentrations predicted by linked exposure and ADME models correlated well with observed 2005-2006 human serum concentrations for C8 Health Project participants. These individualized retrospective exposure and serum estimates are being used in a variety of epidemiologic studies being conducted in this region.

  16. Analysis and Prediction of User Editing Patterns in Ontology Development Projects.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hao; Tudorache, Tania; Dou, Dejing; Noy, Natalya F; Musen, Mark A

    2015-06-01

    The development of real-world ontologies is a complex undertaking, commonly involving a group of domain experts with different expertise that work together in a collaborative setting. These ontologies are usually large scale and have complex structures. To assist in the authoring process, ontology tools are key at making the editing process as streamlined as possible. Being able to predict confidently what the users are likely to do next as they edit an ontology will enable us to focus and structure the user interface accordingly and to facilitate more efficient interaction and information discovery. In this paper, we use data mining, specifically the association rule mining, to investigate whether we are able to predict the next editing operation that a user will make based on the change history. We simulated and evaluated continuous prediction across time using sliding window model. We used the association rule mining to generate patterns from the ontology change logs in the training window and tested these patterns on logs in the adjacent testing window. We also evaluated the impact of different training and testing window sizes on the prediction accuracies. At last, we evaluated our prediction accuracies across different user groups and different ontologies. Our results indicate that we can indeed predict the next editing operation a user is likely to make. We will use the discovered editing patterns to develop a recommendation module for our editing tools, and to design user interface components that better fit with the user editing behaviors.

  17. Analysis and Prediction of User Editing Patterns in Ontology Development Projects

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hao; Tudorache, Tania; Dou, Dejing; Noy, Natalya F.; Musen, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of real-world ontologies is a complex undertaking, commonly involving a group of domain experts with different expertise that work together in a collaborative setting. These ontologies are usually large scale and have complex structures. To assist in the authoring process, ontology tools are key at making the editing process as streamlined as possible. Being able to predict confidently what the users are likely to do next as they edit an ontology will enable us to focus and structure the user interface accordingly and to facilitate more efficient interaction and information discovery. In this paper, we use data mining, specifically the association rule mining, to investigate whether we are able to predict the next editing operation that a user will make based on the change history. We simulated and evaluated continuous prediction across time using sliding window model. We used the association rule mining to generate patterns from the ontology change logs in the training window and tested these patterns on logs in the adjacent testing window. We also evaluated the impact of different training and testing window sizes on the prediction accuracies. At last, we evaluated our prediction accuracies across different user groups and different ontologies. Our results indicate that we can indeed predict the next editing operation a user is likely to make. We will use the discovered editing patterns to develop a recommendation module for our editing tools, and to design user interface components that better fit with the user editing behaviors. PMID:26052350

  18. Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2016-05-01

    Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

  19. On the monitoring and prediction of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments - the EXTRUSO project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiemann, Stefan; Eltner, Anette; Sardemann, Hannes; Spieler, Diana; Singer, Thomas; Thanh Luong, Thi; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels; Bernard, Lars; Bernhofer, Christian; Maas, Hans-Gerd

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods regularly cause severe socio-economic damage worldwide. In parallel, climate change is very likely to increase the number of such events, due to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events (EASAC 2013). Whereas recent work primarily addresses the resilience of large catchment areas, the major impact of hydro-meteorological extremes caused by heavy precipitation is on small areas. Those are very difficult to observe and predict, due to sparse monitoring networks and only few means for hydro-meteorological modelling, especially in small catchment areas. The objective of the EXTRUSO project is to identify and implement appropriate means to close this gap by an interdisciplinary approach, combining comprehensive research expertise from meteorology, hydrology, photogrammetry and geoinformatics. The project targets innovative techniques for achieving spatio-temporal densified monitoring and simulations for the analysis, prediction and warning of local hydro-meteorological extreme events. The following four aspects are of particular interest: 1. The monitoring, analysis and combination of relevant hydro-meteorological parameters from various sources, including existing monitoring networks, ground radar, specific low-cost sensors and crowdsourcing. 2. The determination of relevant hydro-morphological parameters from different photogrammetric sensors (e.g. camera, laser scanner) and sensor platforms (e.g. UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and UWV (unmanned water vehicle)). 3. The continuous hydro-meteorological modelling of precipitation, soil moisture and water flows by means of conceptual and data-driven modelling. 4. The development of a collaborative, web-based service infrastructure as an information and communication point, especially in the case of an extreme event. There are three major applications for the planned information system: First, the warning of local extreme events for the population in potentially affected areas, second, the support

  20. Plate Boundaries and Earthquake Prediction. Crustal Evolution Education Project. Teacher's Guide [and] Student Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoever, Edward C., Jr.

    Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) modules were designed to: (1) provide students with the methods and results of continuing investigations into the composition, history, and processes of the earth's crust and the application of this knowledge to man's activities and (2) to be used by teachers with little or no previous background in the…

  1. Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

    Treesearch

    Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

  2. Short communication: Projecting milk yield using best prediction and the MilkBot lactation model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The accuracy and precision of three lactation models was estimated by summarizing means and variability in projection error for next-test milk and actual 305-d milk yield (M305) for 50-day intervals in a large DHIA data set. Lactations were grouped by breed (Holstein, Jersey and crossbred) and parit...

  3. The Role of Social Relationships in Predicting Loneliness: The National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Leitsch, Sara A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors explore associations between objective and subjective social network characteristics and loneliness in later life, using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, a nationally representative sample of individuals ages 57 to 85 in the United States. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations…

  4. The Role of Social Relationships in Predicting Loneliness: The National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Leitsch, Sara A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors explore associations between objective and subjective social network characteristics and loneliness in later life, using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, a nationally representative sample of individuals ages 57 to 85 in the United States. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations…

  5. Pipeline experiment co-located with USGS Parkfield earthquake prediction project

    SciTech Connect

    Isenberg, J.; Richardson, E.

    1995-12-31

    A field experiment to investigate the response of buried pipelines to lateral offsets and traveling waves has been operational since June, 1988 at the Owens` Pasture site near Parkfield, CA where the US Geological Survey has predicted a M6 earthquake. Although the predicted earthquake has not yet occurred, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1992 M4.7 earthquake near Parkfield produced measurable response at the pipeline experiment. The present paper describes upgrades to the experiment which were introduced after Loma Prieta which performed successfully in the 1992 event.

  6. Development of Procedures for Assessing the Impact of Vocational Education Research and Development on Vocational Education (Project IMPACT). Volume 8--A Field Study of Predicting Impact of Research and Development Projects in Vocational and Technical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malhorta, Man Mohanlal

    As part of Project IMPACT's effort to identify and develop procedures for complying with the impact requirements of Public Law 94-482, a field study was conducted to identify and validate variables and their order of importance in predicting and evaluating impact of research and development (R&D) projects in vocational and technical education.…

  7. Predictive medicine: outcomes, challenges and opportunities in the Synergy-COPD project

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major challenge for healthcare. Heterogeneities in clinical manifestations and in disease progression are relevant traits in COPD with impact on patient management and prognosis. It is hypothesized that COPD heterogeneity results from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering. Objectives To assess the potential of systems medicine to better understand non-pulmonary determinants of COPD heterogeneity. To transfer acquired knowledge to healthcare enhancing subject-specific health risk assessment and stratification to improve management of chronic patients. Method Underlying mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction and of co-morbidity clustering in COPD patients were explored with strategies combining deterministic modelling and network medicine analyses using the Biobridge dataset. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was done (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). A targeted network analysis using the two studies: skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering explored shared pathways between them. Results (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of pivotal skeletal muscle biological pathways and increased risk for co-morbidity clustering was observed in COPD; (2) shared abnormal pathway regulation between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering; and, (3) technological achievements of the projects were: (i) COPD Knowledge Base; (ii) novel modelling approaches; (iii) Simulation Environment; and, (iv) three layers of Clinical Decision Support Systems. Conclusions The project demonstrated the high potential of a systems medicine approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Limiting factors for the project development were identified. They were relevant to shape strategies fostering 4P Medicine for

  8. Some Influences on Teachers and Teaching in 2030: Projections, Predictions, and a Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newcombe, P. Judson

    Predominant in a list of the problems and predictions for education in general and speech communication education in particular for tbe next 50 years are both the changing form and function of the educator. A scenario of education in 2030 includes a nationwide teacher agreement that results in the release of students from mandatory attendance at…

  9. Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 8: Satellite snow mapping and runoff prediction handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowley, C. J.; Barnes, J. C.; Rango, A.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of the handbook is to update the various snowcover interpretation techniques, document the snow mapping techniques used in the various ASVT study areas, and describe the ways snowcover data have been applied to runoff prediction. Through documentation in handbook form, the methodology developed in the Snow Mapping ASVT can be applied to other areas.

  10. Motivational factors predict quit attempts but not maintenance of smoking cessation: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four country project

    PubMed Central

    Yong, Hua-Hie; Balmford, James; Cooper, Jae; Cummings, K. Michael; O'Connor, Richard J.; McNeill, Ann; Zanna, Mark P.; Fong, Geoffrey T.

    2010-01-01

    Aim: To explore whether measures of motivation to quit smoking have different predictive relationships with making quit attempts and the maintenance of those attempts. Methods: Data are from three wave-to-wave transitions of the International Tobacco Control Four (ITC-4) country project. Smokers’ responses at one wave were used to predict the likelihood of making an attempt and among those trying the likelihood of maintaining an attempt for at least a month at the next wave. For both outcomes, hierarchical logistic regressions were used to explore the predictive capacity of seven measures of motivation to quit smoking, controlling for a range of other known or possible predictors. Results: Bivariate analyses indicate that measures of motivation to quit are predictive of making quit attempts, but they predict relapse among those making attempts. Multivariate analyses identified wanting to quit and frequency of prematurely butting out cigarettes as the main positive predictors of making attempts, but this was reduced by intention and recency of last attempt. For maintenance, premature butting out was the main motivation variable predicting relapse and was essentially unaffected by other measures. Discussion: The findings show that it is wrong to suggest that all one needs to quit is to be motivated to do so. The reality is that one needs to be motivated to prompt action to stop smoking, but this is not sufficient in and of itself to ensure that cessation is maintained. These findings call attention to the importance of understanding the differential roles that prequit and postquit experiences play in smoking cessation and of providing help to smokers to stay off cigarettes. PMID:20889479

  11. Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in

  12. Performance of the operational high-resolution numerical weather predictions of the Daphne project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stelios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    In the framework of the DAPHNE project, the Department of Meteorology and Climatology (http://meteo.geo.auth.gr) of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, utilizes the nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW) in order to produce high-resolution weather forecasts over Thessaly in central Greece. The aim of the DAPHNE project is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification. Cloud seeding assists the convective clouds to produce rain more efficiently or reduce hailstone size in favour of raindrops. The most favourable conditions for such a weather modification program in Thessaly occur in the period from March to October when convective clouds are triggered more frequently. Three model domains, using 2-way telescoping nesting, cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa (D01), ii) Greece (D02) and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (D03; at selected periods) at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively. This research work intents to describe the atmospheric model setup and analyse its performance during a selected period of the operational phase of the project. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts is performed using surface observations, gridded fields and radar data. Well established point verification methods combined with novel object based upon these methods, provide in depth analysis of the model skill. Spatial characteristics are adequately captured but a variable time lag between forecast and observation is noted. Acknowledgments: This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness

  13. The BAD project: data mining, database and prediction of protein adsorption on surfaces.

    PubMed

    Vasina, Elena N; Paszek, Ewa; Nicolau, Dan V; Nicolau, Dan V

    2009-04-07

    Protein adsorption at solid-liquid interfaces is critical to many applications, including biomaterials, protein microarrays and lab-on-a-chip devices. Despite this general interest, and a large amount of research in the last half a century, protein adsorption cannot be predicted with an engineering level, design-orientated accuracy. Here we describe a Biomolecular Adsorption Database (BAD), freely available online, which archives the published protein adsorption data. Piecewise linear regression with breakpoint applied to the data in the BAD suggests that the input variables to protein adsorption, i.e., protein concentration in solution; protein descriptors derived from primary structure (number of residues, global protein hydrophobicity and range of amino acid hydrophobicity, isoelectric point); surface descriptors (contact angle); and fluid environment descriptors (pH, ionic strength), correlate well with the output variable-the protein concentration on the surface. Furthermore, neural network analysis revealed that the size of the BAD makes it sufficiently representative, with a neural network-based predictive error of 5% or less. Interestingly, a consistently better fit is obtained if the BAD is divided in two separate sub-sets representing protein adsorption on hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces, respectively. Based on these findings, selected entries from the BAD have been used to construct neural network-based estimation routines, which predict the amount of adsorbed protein, the thickness of the adsorbed layer and the surface tension of the protein-covered surface. While the BAD is of general interest, the prediction of the thickness and the surface tension of the protein-covered layers are of particular relevance to the design of microfluidics devices.

  14. Future global and regional climate change: From near-term prediction to long-term projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.; Collins, M.; Power, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Christensen, J. H.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC AR5 assessed results from a hierarchy of different climate models on how climate might change in the future from decades to millennia. The projections are based on a series of new climate models and for new scenarios. They are very consistent with projections in AR4 and confirm widespread changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land under emission scenarios without mitigation. In the late 21st century and beyond, the warming is dominated by the total emissions of CO2, and many changes will persist for centuries even if emissions were stopped. Stabilization of global temperature at 2°C above the preindustrial value for example, requires strong emission reductions over the 21st century. In the near term and locally however, interannual and decadal climate variability remains a large and mostly irreducible component of the uncertainty in projections. Improving the quality of information on regional climate change and improving the ability of the scientific community to perform near-term climate predictions are key challenges for the future. The development of a consensus in the climate science community on (i) the major directions for future model development and (ii) the scope of future coordinated model experiments will help serve the needs of both future IPCC assessments and the wider research community.

  15. Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project.

    PubMed

    Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan; Sakr, Sherif

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

  16. Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project

    PubMed Central

    Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data. PMID:28738059

  17. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

    2014-02-01

    Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

  18. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: The CHARGE risk score project

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B.; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G.; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; DeStefano, Anita L.; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A.; DeCarli, Charles; Ikram, M. Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, WT; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods The study includes four population-based cohorts with 2,047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged 55 years and older, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRS were constructed with 324 SNPs implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with Area under the curve (AUC) statistics comparing the GRS to age sex, and FSRS models, and with reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke (IS). Results In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the FSRS, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (All stroke: Δjoint AUC =0.016, p-value=2.3*10-6; IS: Δ joint AUC =0.021, p-value=3.7*10−7), although the overall AUC remained low. In all studies there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (p-values <10−4). Conclusions The SNPs associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared to the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke. PMID:24436238

  19. Zsyntax: a formal language for molecular biology with projected applications in text mining and biological prediction.

    PubMed

    Boniolo, Giovanni; D'Agostino, Marcello; Di Fiore, Pier Paolo

    2010-03-03

    We propose a formal language that allows for transposing biological information precisely and rigorously into machine-readable information. This language, which we call Zsyntax (where Z stands for the Greek word zetaomegaeta, life), is grounded on a particular type of non-classical logic, and it can be used to write algorithms and computer programs. We present it as a first step towards a comprehensive formal language for molecular biology in which any biological process can be written and analyzed as a sort of logical "deduction". Moreover, we illustrate the potential value of this language, both in the field of text mining and in that of biological prediction.

  20. Prediction of single-component NAPL behavior for the TEVES Project using T2VOC

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, S.W.; Phelan, J.M.

    1995-04-01

    Detailed simulations have been performed for the TEVES (Thermal Enhanced Vapor Extraction System) Project using the TOUGH2 code considering air, water, and a single-component NAPL. A critical parameter varied in the simulations is the borehole vacuum which directly affects air flow through the system and indirectly influences soil temperatures and water and NAPL fluid masses. Contaminant migration from the heated zone into the unheated soil can occur if the borehole vacuum, or borehole flow rate, is not sufficient. Under these conditions, evaporation of liquids (water and NAPL) due to the heating can cause flow from the heated zone into the unheated soil. Insufficient air sweep may be indicated by a vapor dominated mass flow rate into the borehole, at least for the present configuration. Sufficient air flow through the heated zone must be provided to contain the contaminants within the heated zone.

  1. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, Daniel A.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

  2. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  3. The ChemScreen project to design a pragmatic alternative approach to predict reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

    PubMed

    van der Burg, Bart; Wedebye, Eva Bay; Dietrich, Daniel R; Jaworska, Joanna; Mangelsdorf, Inge; Paune, Eduard; Schwarz, Michael; Piersma, Aldert H; Kroese, E Dinant

    2015-08-01

    There is a great need for rapid testing strategies for reproductive toxicity testing, avoiding animal use. The EU Framework program 7 project ChemScreen aimed to fill this gap in a pragmatic manner preferably using validated existing tools and place them in an innovative alternative testing strategy. In our approach we combined knowledge on critical processes affected by reproductive toxicants with knowledge on the mechanistic basis of such effects. We used in silico methods for prescreening chemicals for relevant toxic effects aiming at reduced testing needs. For those chemicals that need testing we have set up an in vitro screening panel that includes mechanistic high throughput methods and lower throughput assays that measure more integrative endpoints. In silico pharmacokinetic modules were developed for rapid exposure predictions via diverse exposure routes. These modules to match in vitro and in vivo exposure levels greatly improved predictivity of the in vitro tests. As a further step, we have generated examples how to predict reproductive toxicity of chemicals using available data. We have executed formal validations of panel constituents and also used more innovative manners to validate the test panel using mechanistic approaches. We are actively engaged in promoting regulatory acceptance of the tools developed as an essential step towards practical application, including case studies for read-across purposes. With this approach, a significant saving in animal use and associated costs seems very feasible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Zsyntax: A Formal Language for Molecular Biology with Projected Applications in Text Mining and Biological Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Boniolo, Giovanni; D'Agostino, Marcello; Di Fiore, Pier Paolo

    2010-01-01

    We propose a formal language that allows for transposing biological information precisely and rigorously into machine-readable information. This language, which we call Zsyntax (where Z stands for the Greek word ζωή, life), is grounded on a particular type of non-classical logic, and it can be used to write algorithms and computer programs. We present it as a first step towards a comprehensive formal language for molecular biology in which any biological process can be written and analyzed as a sort of logical “deduction”. Moreover, we illustrate the potential value of this language, both in the field of text mining and in that of biological prediction. PMID:20209084

  5. SWAT system performance predictions. Project report. [SWAT (Short-Wavelength Adaptive Techniques)

    SciTech Connect

    Parenti, R.R.; Sasiela, R.J.

    1993-03-10

    In the next phase of Lincoln Laboratory's SWAT (Short-Wavelength Adaptive Techniques) program, the performance of a 241-actuator adaptive-optics system will be measured using a variety of synthetic-beacon geometries. As an aid in this experimental investigation, a detailed set of theoretical predictions has also been assembled. The computational tools that have been applied in this study include a numerical approach in which Monte-Carlo ray-trace simulations of accumulated phase error are developed, and an analytical analysis of the expected system behavior. This report describes the basis of these two computational techniques and compares their estimates of overall system performance. Although their regions of applicability tend to be complementary rather than redundant, good agreement is usually obtained when both sets of results can be derived for the same engagement scenario.... Adaptive optics, Phase conjugation, Atmospheric turbulence Synthetic beacon, Laser guide star.

  6. How well does the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification predict the site and size of the infarct on brain imaging?

    PubMed Central

    Mead, G; Lewis, S; Wardlaw, J; Dennis, M; Warlow, C

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification is a simple clinical scheme for subdividing first ever acute stroke. Several small studies have shown that when an infarct is visible on CT or MRI, the classification predicts its site in about three quarters of patients. The aim was to further investigate this relation in a much larger cohort of patients in hospital with ischaemic stroke.
METHODS—Between 1994 and 1997, inpatients and outpatients with ischaemic stroke were assessed by one of several stroke physicians who noted the OCSP classification. A neuroradiologist classified the site and extent of recent infarction on CT or MRI.
RESULTS—Of 1012 patients with ischaemic stroke, 655 (65%) had recent visible infarcts. These radiological lesions were appropriate to the clinical classification in 69/87 (79%) patients with a total anterior circulation syndrome, 213/298 (71%) with a partial anterior circulation syndrome, 105/144 (73%) with a lacunar syndrome, and 105/126 (83%) with a posterior circulation syndrome. Overall, 75% of patients with visible infarcts were correctly classified clinically. If patients without a visible infarct did have an appropriate lesion in the brain (best case), the classification would have correctly predicted its site and size in 849/1012 (84%) patients, compared with only 492/1012 (49%) in the worst case scenario.
CONCLUSION—The OCSP classification predicted the site of infarct in three quarters of patients. When an infarct is visible on brain imaging, the site of the infarct should guide the use of further investigations, but if an infarct is not seen, the OCSP classification could be used to predict its likely size and site.

 PMID:10766882

  7. Geometric modeling of Plateau borders using the orthographic projection method for closed cell rigid polyurethane foam thermal conductivity prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jie; Wu, Tao; Peng, Chuang; Adegbite, Stephen

    2017-09-01

    The geometric Plateau border model for closed cell polyurethane foam was developed based on volume integrations of approximated 3D four-cusp hypocycloid structure. The tetrahedral structure of convex struts was orthogonally projected into 2D three-cusp deltoid with three central cylinders. The idealized single unit strut was modeled by superposition. The volume of each component was calculated by geometric analyses. The strut solid fraction f s and foam porosity coefficient δ were calculated based on representative elementary volume of Kelvin and Weaire-Phelan structures. The specific surface area Sv derived respectively from packing structures and deltoid approximation model were put into contrast against strut dimensional ratio ɛ. The characteristic foam parameters obtained from this semi-empirical model were further employed to predict foam thermal conductivity.

  8. Prenatal maternal stress predicts autism traits in 6½ year-old children: Project Ice Storm.

    PubMed

    Walder, Deborah J; Laplante, David P; Sousa-Pires, Alexandra; Veru, Franz; Brunet, Alain; King, Suzanne

    2014-10-30

    Research implicates prenatal maternal stress (PNMS) as a risk factor for neurodevelopmental disorders; however few studies report PNMS effects on autism risk in offspring. We examined, prospectively, the degree to which objective and subjective elements of PNMS explained variance in autism-like traits among offspring, and tested moderating effects of sex and PNMS timing in utero. Subjects were 89 (46F/43M) children who were in utero during the 1998 Quebec Ice Storm. Soon after the storm, mothers completed questionnaires on objective exposure and subjective distress, and completed the Autism Spectrum Screening Questionnaire (ASSQ) for their children at age 6½. ASSQ scores were higher among boys than girls. Greater objective and subjective PNMS predicted higher ASSQ independent of potential confounds. An objective-by-subjective interaction suggested that when subjective PNMS was high, objective PNMS had little effect; whereas when subjective PNMS was low, objective PNMS strongly affected ASSQ scores. A timing-by-objective stress interaction suggested objective stress significantly affected ASSQ in first-trimester exposed children, though less so with later exposure. The final regression explained 43% of variance in ASSQ scores; the main effect of sex and the sex-by-PNMS interactions were not significant. Findings may help elucidate neurodevelopmental origins of non-clinical autism-like traits from a dimensional perspective. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Constructing Predictive Estimates for Worker Exposure to Radioactivity During Decommissioning: Analysis of Completed Decommissioning Projects - Master Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Dettmers, Dana Lee; Eide, Steven Arvid

    2002-10-01

    An analysis of completed decommissioning projects is used to construct predictive estimates for worker exposure to radioactivity during decommissioning activities. The preferred organizational method for the completed decommissioning project data is to divide the data by type of facility, whether decommissioning was performed on part of the facility or the complete facility, and the level of radiation within the facility prior to decommissioning (low, medium, or high). Additional data analysis shows that there is not a downward trend in worker exposure data over time. Also, the use of a standard estimate for worker exposure to radioactivity may be a best estimate for low complete storage, high partial storage, and medium reactor facilities; a conservative estimate for some low level of facility radiation facilities (reactor complete, research complete, pits/ponds, other), medium partial process facilities, and high complete research facilities; and an underestimate for the remaining facilities. Limited data are available to compare different decommissioning alternatives, so the available data are reported and no conclusions can been drawn. It is recommended that all DOE sites and the NRC use a similar method to document worker hours, worker exposure to radiation (person-rem), and standard industrial accidents, injuries, and deaths for all completed decommissioning activities.

  10. Predicting the spatial extent of injection-induced zones of enhanced permeability at the Northwest Geysers EGS Demonstration Project

    SciTech Connect

    Rutqvist, J.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Dobson, P.F.

    2010-02-01

    We present the results of coupled thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical (THM) modeling of a proposed stimulation injection associated with an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project at the northwest part of The Geysers geothermal field, California. The project aims at creating an EGS by directly and systematically injecting cool water at relatively low pressure into a known High Temperature (about 280 to 350 C) Zone (HTZ) located under the conventional (240 C) steam reservoir at depths below 3 km. Accurate micro-earthquake monitoring from the start of the injection will be used as a tool for tracking the development of the EGS. We first analyzed historic injection and micro-earthquake data from an injection well (Aidlin 11), located about 3 miles to the west of the new EGS demonstration area. Thereafter, we used the same modeling approach to predict the likely extent of the zone of enhanced permeability for a proposed initial injection in two wells (Prati State 31 and Prati 32) at the new EGS demonstration area. Our modeling indicates that the proposed injection scheme will provide additional steam production in the area by creating a zone of permeability enhancement extending about 0.5 km from each injection well which will connect to the overlying conventional steam reservoir.

  11. Impact of Different Topographic Corrections on Prediction Accuracy of Foliage Projective Cover (fpc) in a Topographically Complex Terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ediriweera, S.; Pathirana, S.; Danaher, T.; Nichols, D.; Moffiet, T.

    2012-07-01

    Quantitative retrieval of land surface biological parameters (e.g. foliage projective cover [FPC] and Leaf Area Index) is crucial for forest management, ecosystem modelling, and global change monitoring applications. Currently, remote sensing is a widely adopted method for rapid estimation of surface biological parameters in a landscape scale. Topographic correction is a necessary pre-processing step in the remote sensing application for topographically complex terrain. Selection of a suitable topographic correction method on remotely sensed spectral information is still an unresolved problem. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of topographic corrections on the prediction of FPC in hilly terrain using an established regression model. Five established topographic corrections [C, Minnaert, SCS, SCS+C and processing scheme for standardised surface reflectance (PSSSR)] were evaluated on Landsat TM5 acquired under low and high sun angles in closed canopied subtropical rainforest and eucalyptus dominated open canopied forest, north-eastern Australia. The effectiveness of methods at normalizing topographic influence, preserving biophysical spectral information, and internal data variability were assessed by statistical analysis and by comparing field collected FPC data. The results of statistical analyses show that SCS+C and PSSSR perform significantly better than other corrections, which were on less overcorrected areas of faintly illuminated slopes. However, the best relationship between FPC and Landsat spectral responses was obtained with the PSSSR by producing the least residual error. The SCS correction method was poor for correction of topographic effect in predicting FPC in topographically complex terrain.

  12. Prediction of psychosis in clinical high-risk patients by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire. Results of the EPOS project.

    PubMed

    Salokangas, R K R; Dingemans, P; Heinimaa, M; Svirskis, T; Luutonen, S; Hietala, J; Ruhrmann, S; Juckel, G; Graf von Reventlow, H; Linszen, D; Birchwood, M; Patterson, P; Schultze-Lutter, F; Klosterkötter, J

    2013-10-01

    Schizotypal features indicate proneness to psychosis in the general population. It is also possible that they increase transition to psychosis (TTP) among clinical high-risk patients (CHR). Our aim was to investigate whether schizotypal features predict TTP in CHR patients. In the EPOS (European Prediction of Psychosis Study) project, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were prospectively followed for 18 months and their TTP was identified. At baseline, subjects were assessed with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ). Associations between SPQ items and its subscales with the TTP were analysed in Cox regression analysis. The SPQ subscales and items describing ideas of reference and lack of close interpersonal relationships were found to correlate significantly with TTP. The co-occurrence of these features doubled the risk of TTP. Presence of ideas of reference and lack of close interpersonal relations increase the risk of full-blown psychosis among CHR patients. This co-occurrence makes the risk of psychosis very high. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Prediction of fungicidal activities of rice blast disease based on least-squares support vector machines and project pursuit regression.

    PubMed

    Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Hu, Zhide; Yao, Xiaojun; Zhang, Xiaoyun

    2008-11-26

    Three machine learning methods, genetic algorithm-multilinear regression (GA-MLR), least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and project pursuit regression (PPR), were used to investigate the relationship between thiazoline derivatives and their fungicidal activities against the rice blast disease. The GA-MLR method was used to select the most appropriate molecular descriptors from a large set of descriptors, which were only calculated from molecular structures, and develop a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model at the same time. On the basis of the selected descriptors, the other two more accurate models (LS-SVM and PPR) were built. Both the linear and nonlinear modes gave good prediction results, but the nonlinear models afforded better prediction ability, which meant that the LS-SVM and PPR methods could simulate the relationship between the structural descriptors and fungicidal activities more accurately. The results show that the nonlinear methods (LS-SVM and PPR) could be used as good modeling tools for the study of rice blast. Moreover, this study provides a new and simple but efficient approach, which should facilitate the design and development of new compounds to resist the rice blast disease.

  14. Prediction of retention indices of drugs based on immobilized artificial membrane chromatography using Projection Pursuit Regression and Local Lazy Regression.

    PubMed

    Du, Hongying; Watzl, June; Wang, Jie; Zhang, Xiaoyun; Yao, Xiaojun; Hu, Zhide

    2008-07-01

    The relationship between the logarithm of retention indices (log k(IAM)) of 55 diverse drugs in immobilized artificial membrane (IAM) chromatography and molecular structure descriptors was established by linear and non-linear modeling methods--Projection Pursuit Regression (PPR) and lazy learning method-Local Lazy Regression (LLR). The descriptors calculated from the molecular structures by the software CODESSA and a widely accepted property parameter ClogP were used to represent the characteristics of the compounds. The best multi-linear regression (BMLR) method in the CODESSA was used to select the most important molecular descriptors from a large set of descriptors and to develop the linear and non-linear quantitative structure retention relationship (QSRR) models. By comparing these different methods, the LLR model gave the best predictive results for the drugs studied in the present work with the square of correlation coefficient (R(2)) of 0.9540, 0.9305; root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2418, 0.3949; for the training set and test set, respectively. It was proved that the LLR method was a promising method for QSRR modeling with good predictive capability for the retention indices of drugs in immobilized artificial membrane chromatography, and could be used in other similar chromatography research fields.

  15. The KIAPS global NWP model development project at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS.org)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Young-Joon; Shin, Dong-Wook; Jin, Emilia; Oh, Tae-Jin; Song, Hyo-Jong; Song, In-Sun

    2013-04-01

    A nine-year project to develop Korea's own global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system was launched in 2011 by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) with the total funding of about 100 million US dollars. For the task, the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) was founded by KMA as an independent, non-profit organization. The project consists of three main stages. The first stage (2011-2013) is to set up the Institute, recruit researchers, lay out plans for the research and development, and design the basic structure and explore/develop core NWP technologies. The second stage (2014-2016) aims at developing the basic modules for the dynamical core, physical parameterizations and data assimilation systems as well as the applied module for the system framework and couplers to connect the basic modules and external models, respectively, in a systematic and efficient way. The third stage (2017-2019) is for validating the prototype NWP system built in stage 2, including necessary post-processing systems, by selecting/improving modules and refining/finalizing the system for operational use at KMA. KIAPS designed key modules for the dynamical core by adopting existing and/or developing new cores, and developed a barotropic model first and a baroclinic model later with code parallelization and optimization in mind. Various physical parameterization schemes, including those used operationally in NWP models as well as those developed by Korean scientists, are being evaluated and improved by using single-column and LES models, and explicit simulations, etc. The control variables for variational data assimilation systems, the testbeds for observational data pre-processing systems, have been designed, the linear models for a barotropic system have been constructed, and the modules for cost function minimization have been developed. The module framework, which is flexible for prognostic and diagnostic variables, is being developed, the I

  16. Palomar project: predicting school renouncing dropouts, using the artificial neural networks as a support for educational policy decisions.

    PubMed

    Carbone, V; Piras, G

    1998-02-01

    The "Palomar" project confronts two problem situations that are partly independent and partly connected to the Italian schooling system: unstable participation in school such as drop out and educational guidance. Our concern is that of a set of phenomena which consists of ceasing compulsory education, repetition of a year at school, school "drop outs", irregular compulsory attendance and delays in the course of studies. The "Palomar" project is designed to offer educators and administrators who want to effectively intervene with these complex problems to furnish school guidance services as an instrument able to: 1. Predict: creating a system able to predict in advance (not in a "cause-effect" way but as an approximation): a) which students are at "risk" for school destabilization or failure; b) what are the prototypical characteristics of these students; c) which students among those studied are more likely to "destabilize" or fail in school; in which course of study does each student have the greatest chance of success; d) which, among the variables studied and appropriately weighted for each student, will predict the successful grade, analyzed for each possible course of studies. 2. Optimize: selecting and focusing on a student on the basis of the information given. It is possible: a) to point out which personal factors (relational, familial, student, disciplinary, economical) need to be reinforced in order to improve the school performances of each selected student, both to prevent or limit "dropping out" desertion or failure and to raise the performances in the chosen school course as much as possible; b) on the basis of what was mentioned above, to simulate the possible support measures to increase the efficacy of the considered intervention; c) to choose for each student the appropriate intervention strategy capable of obtaining the maximum result and the maximum efficacy in the given conditions. 3. Verify: when the strategy of intervention has been decided

  17. The eTOX data-sharing project to advance in silico drug-induced toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-11-14

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage.

  18. The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification system predicts clinical outcomes following intravenous thrombolysis: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yuling; Wang, Anxin; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Chunxue; Liu, Liping; Zheng, Huaguang; Wang, Yongjun; Cao, Yibin; Wang, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    Background The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification system is a simple stroke classification system that can be used to predict clinical outcomes. In this study, we compare the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis in Chinese stroke patients categorized using the OCSP classification system. Patients and methods We collected data from the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitoring of Acute Ischemic Stroke in China registry. A total of 1,115 patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase within 4.5 hours of stroke onset were included. Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH), mortality, and 90-day functional outcomes were compared between the stroke patients with different stroke subtypes. Results Of the 1,115 patients included in the cohort, 197 (17.67%) were classified with total anterior circulation infarct (TACI), 700 (62.78%) with partial anterior circulation infarct, 153 (13.72%) with posterior circulation infarct, and 65 (5.83%) with lacunar infarct. After multivariable adjustment, compared to the patients with non-TACI, those with TACI had a significantly increased risk of SICH (odds ratio [OR] 8.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.84–27.25, P<0.001), higher mortality (OR 5.24; 95% CI 3.19–8.62; P<0.001), and poor functional independence (OR 0.38; 95% CI 0.26–0.56; P<0.001) at 3-month follow-up. Conclusion After thrombolysis, the patients with TACI exhibited greater SICH, a higher mortality rate, and worse 3-month clinical outcomes compared with the patients with non-TACI. The OCSP classification system may help clinicians predict the safety and efficacy of thrombolysis. PMID:27418829

  19. Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Erin S.; Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Wu, Joan Q.; Boll, Jan

    2016-02-01

    Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to forested watersheds, we developed and assessed new approaches for simulating streamflow and sediment transport from large watersheds using WEPP. We created specific algorithms to spatially distribute soil, climate, and management input files for all the subwatersheds within the basin. The model enhancements were tested on five geologically and climatically diverse watersheds in the Lake Tahoe basin, USA. The model was run with minimal calibration to assess WEPP's ability as a physically-based model to predict streamflow and sediment delivery. The performance of the model was examined against 17 years of observed snow water equivalent depth, streamflow, and sediment load data. Only region-wide baseflow recession parameters related to the geology of the basin were calibrated with observed streamflow data. Close agreement between simulated and observed snow water equivalent, streamflow, and the distribution of fine (<20 μm) and coarse (>20 μm) sediments was achieved at each of the major watersheds located in the high-precipitation regions of the basin. Sediment load was adequately simulated in the drier watersheds; however, annual streamflow was overestimated. With the exception of the drier eastern region, the model demonstrated no loss in accuracy when applied without calibration to multiple watersheds across Lake Tahoe basin demonstrating the utility of the model as a management tool in gauged and ungauged basins.

  20. Prediction of radiographic progression in synovitis-positive joints on maximum intensity projection of magnetic resonance imaging in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Akai, Takanori; Taniguchi, Daigo; Oda, Ryo; Asada, Maki; Toyama, Shogo; Tokunaga, Daisaku; Seno, Takahiro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Fujii, Yosuke; Ito, Hirotoshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu

    2016-04-01

    Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with maximum intensity projection (MRI-MIP) is an easy, useful imaging method to evaluate synovitis in rheumatoid hands. However, the prognosis of synovitis-positive joints on MRI-MIP has not been clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between synovitis visualized by MRI-MIP and joint destruction on X-rays in rheumatoid hands. The wrists, metacarpophalangeal (MP) joints, and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of both hands (500 joints in total) were evaluated in 25 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Synovitis was scored from grade 0 to 2 on the MRI-MIP images. The Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade were used for radiographic evaluation. The relationships between the MIP score and the progression of radiographic scores and between the MIP score and bone marrow edema on MRI were analyzed using the trend test. As the MIP score increased, the Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade progressed severely. The rate of bone marrow edema-positive joints also increased with higher MIP scores. MRI-MIP imaging of RA hands is a clinically useful method that allows semi-quantitative evaluation of synovitis with ease and can be used to predict joint destruction.

  1. Summary of ground motion prediction results for Nevada Test Site underground nuclear explosions related to the Yucca Mountain project

    SciTech Connect

    Walck, M.C.

    1996-10-01

    This report summarizes available data on ground motions from underground nuclear explosions recorded on and near the Nevada Test Site, with emphasis on the ground motions recorded at stations on Yucca Mountain, the site of a potential high-level radioactive waste repository. Sandia National Laboratories, through the Weapons Test Seismic Investigations project, collected and analyzed ground motion data from NTS explosions over a 14-year period, from 1977 through 1990. By combining these data with available data from earlier, larger explosions, prediction equations for several ground motion parameters have been developed for the Test Site area for underground nuclear explosion sources. Also presented are available analyses of the relationship between surface and downhole motions and spectra and relevant crustal velocity structure information for Yucca Mountain derived from the explosion data. The data and associated analyses demonstrate that ground motions at Yucca Mountain from nuclear tests have been at levels lower than would be expected from moderate to large earthquakes in the region; thus nuclear explosions, while located relatively close, would not control seismic design criteria for the potential repository.

  2. Can performance on summative evaluation of wax-added dental anatomy projects be better predicted from the combination of supervised and unsupervised practice than from supervised practice alone?

    PubMed

    Radjaeipour, G; Chambers, D W; Geissberger, M

    2016-11-01

    The study explored the effects of adding student-directed projects in pre-clinical dental anatomy laboratory on improving the predictability of students' eventual performance on summative evaluation exercises, given the presence of intervening faculty-controlled, in-class practice. All students from four consecutive classes (n = 555) completed wax-added home projects (HP), spending as much or as little time as desired and receiving no faculty feedback; followed by similar laboratory projects (LP) with time limits and feedback; and then summative practical projects (PP) in a timed format but without faculty feedback. Path analysis was used to assess if the student-directed HP had any effect over and above the laboratory projects. Average scores were HP = 0.785 (SD = 0.089); LP = 0.736 (SD = 0.092); and PP = 0.743 (SD = 0.108). Path analysis was applied to show the effects of including a student-controlled home practice exercise on summative exercise performance. HP contributed 57% direct effect and 37% mediated effect through the LP condition. Student-directed home practice provided a measureable improvement in ability to predict eventual performance in summative test cases over and above the predictive contribution of intervening faculty-controlled practice conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 12: Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Fuel Management (FuMe) tool

    Treesearch

    William Elliot; David Hall

    2005-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Fuel Management (FuMe) tool was developed to estimate sediment generated by fuel management activities. WEPP FuMe estimates sediment generated for 12 fuel-related conditions from a single input. This fact sheet identifies the intended users and uses, required inputs, what the model does, and tells the user how to obtain the...

  4. Comparison of models for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community composition in the receiving water system of an inter-basin water transfer project.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Qinghui; Liu, Yi; Zhao, Hongtao; Sun, Mingdong; Li, Xuyong

    2017-04-01

    Inter-basin water transfer projects might cause complex hydro-chemical and biological variation in the receiving aquatic ecosystems. Whether machine learning models can be used to predict changes in phytoplankton community composition caused by water transfer projects have rarely been studied. In the present study, we used machine learning models to predict the total algal cell densities and changes in phytoplankton community composition in Miyun reservoir caused by the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). The model performances of four machine learning models, including regression trees (RT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) were evaluated and the best model was selected for further prediction. The results showed that the predictive accuracies (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the models were RF (0.974), ANN (0.951), SVM (0.860), and RT (0.817) in the training step and RF (0.806), ANN (0.734), SVM (0.730), and RT (0.692) in the testing step. Therefore, the RF model was the best method for estimating total algal cell densities. Furthermore, the predicted accuracies of the RF model for dominant phytoplankton phyla (Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Bacillariophyta) in Miyun reservoir ranged from 0.824 to 0.869 in the testing step. The predicted proportions with water transfer of the different phytoplankton phyla ranged from -8.88% to 9.93%, and the predicted dominant phyla with water transfer in each season remained unchanged compared to the phytoplankton succession without water transfer. The results of the present study provide a useful tool for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community caused by water transfer. The method is transferrable to other locations via establishment of models with relevant data to a particular area. Our findings help better understanding the possible changes in aquatic ecosystems influenced by inter-basin water transfer.

  5. Modeling sediment yield and phosphorus in the Lake Tahoe basin with the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobre, M.; Brooks, E. S.; Srivastava, A.; Lew, R.; Elliot, W. J.

    2016-12-01

    Lake Tahoe, an alpine lake situated at the border between California and Nevada, has experienced a decrease in water quality during the last 50 years. Similar to lakes in other developed areas, this decrease in water quality is mainly associated with an increase in sediment and nutrient delivery from the surrounding tributaries. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based hydrology and erosion model that can be used at both small scales (hillslopes, roads, small parcels, etc.) and large watershed scales to evaluate impacts of management practices and climate change on runoff and erosion. We developed and assessed new approaches in WEPP to simulate streamflow and sediment transport, and added a new routine to estimate phosphorus delivery from five geologically and climatically diverse watersheds in the Lake Tahoe basin. We used readily-available data to spatially distribute soil, climate, and management input files at a subwatershed level. Consistent with the current efforts in the basin to reduce phosphorus transport to the lake, our recent improvements to the model have also focused on enhancing the model with a phosphorus component that allows users to evaluate the effect of forest managements on phosphorus delivery to the lake. The model was run with minimal calibration to assess WEPP's ability as a physically-based model to predict streamflow, sediment, and phosphorus delivery. The performance of the model was examined against 25 years of observed snow water equivalent depth, streamflow, sediment, and phosphorus load data. Close agreement between simulated and observed snow water equivalent, streamflow, the distribution of fine (<20 µm) and coarse (>20 µm) sediments, and phosphorus load was achieved at each of the major watersheds located in the high-precipitation regions of the basin. Sediment load was adequately simulated in the drier watersheds; however, annual streamflow was overestimated. With the exception of the drier eastern

  6. The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

    PubMed

    Prieto, P; Kinsner-Ovaskainen, A; Stanzel, S; Albella, B; Artursson, P; Campillo, N; Cecchelli, R; Cerrato, L; Díaz, L; Di Consiglio, E; Guerra, A; Gombau, L; Herrera, G; Honegger, P; Landry, C; O'Connor, J E; Páez, J A; Quintas, G; Svensson, R; Turco, L; Zurich, M G; Zurbano, M J; Kopp-Schneider, A

    2013-06-01

    ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

  7. Genome3D: a UK collaborative project to annotate genomic sequences with predicted 3D structures based on SCOP and CATH domains

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Tony E.; Sillitoe, Ian; Andreeva, Antonina; Blundell, Tom L.; Buchan, Daniel W.A.; Chothia, Cyrus; Cuff, Alison; Dana, Jose M.; Filippis, Ioannis; Gough, Julian; Hunter, Sarah; Jones, David T.; Kelley, Lawrence A.; Kleywegt, Gerard J.; Minneci, Federico; Mitchell, Alex; Murzin, Alexey G.; Ochoa-Montaño, Bernardo; Rackham, Owen J. L.; Smith, James; Sternberg, Michael J. E.; Velankar, Sameer; Yeats, Corin; Orengo, Christine

    2013-01-01

    Genome3D, available at http://www.genome3d.eu, is a new collaborative project that integrates UK-based structural resources to provide a unique perspective on sequence–structure–function relationships. Leading structure prediction resources (DomSerf, FUGUE, Gene3D, pDomTHREADER, Phyre and SUPERFAMILY) provide annotations for UniProt sequences to indicate the locations of structural domains (structural annotations) and their 3D structures (structural models). Structural annotations and 3D model predictions are currently available for three model genomes (Homo sapiens, E. coli and baker’s yeast), and the project will extend to other genomes in the near future. As these resources exploit different strategies for predicting structures, the main aim of Genome3D is to enable comparisons between all the resources so that biologists can see where predictions agree and are therefore more trusted. Furthermore, as these methods differ in whether they build their predictions using CATH or SCOP, Genome3D also contains the first official mapping between these two databases. This has identified pairs of similar superfamilies from the two resources at various degrees of consensus (532 bronze pairs, 527 silver pairs and 370 gold pairs). PMID:23203986

  8. The sensitivity of predicted carbon sequestered by a sustainable forestry management project -- An example from the Sierra Gorda Queretana, Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, D.N.; Ruiz Corzo, M.I.

    1997-12-31

    Joint Implementation (JI) projects that capture carbon through sequestration are believed by investors to be more risky than other projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is because of their long lifetime, complicated nature, numerous poorly defined input parameters and perceived high costs of monitoring. Whereas the first factors are true, sensitivity analysis can help reduce these costs by focusing one`s attention on the important parameters. Secondly, sensitivity analysis can be used to improve program design. And finally, one can also create a distribution of possible outcomes for the project. The carbon flux model proposed by Schlamadinger and Marland (1) is used to calculate the amount of carbon sequestered by a forest management project. Using simple sensitivity analysis, the model has been extended to create tornado diagrams and probability distributions. Analysis of these data have led to focusing on estimates of important variables, an understanding of the time-value of money and the possibility of project redesign by the operating Non Government Organization (NGO). The project used in this discussion is a forestry management program supervised by Grupo Ecologico Sierra Gorda, A.C.. Their goal is to create a sustainable forestry practice in the Sierra Gorda Queretana, Mexico. It is a 25 year project involving replanting a 1,000 ha/year for seven years and natural reforestation of a further 1,000 ha/year of marginal farmland for seven years. These two components of the project sequester 1.1 million tonnes of carbon and bring $260 million to the region. A forestry protection program sequesters a further 0.8 million tonnes of carbon at marginal cost. The project is anomalous for a sequestration project in that it makes money and has a 20.5% rate of return.

  9. Next generation paradigm for urban pluvial flood modelling, prediction, management and vulnerability reduction - Interaction between RainGain and Blue Green Dream projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maksimovic, C.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of climate change and increasing urbanisation call for a new paradigm for efficient planning, management and retrofitting of urban developments to increase resilience to climate change and to maximize ecosystem services. Improved management of urban floods from all sources in required. Time scale for well documented fluvial and coastal floods allows for timely response but surface (pluvial) flooding caused by intense local storms had not been given appropriate attention, Pitt Review (UK). Urban surface floods predictions require fine scale data and model resolutions. They have to be tackled locally by combining central inputs (meteorological services) with the efforts of the local entities. Although significant breakthrough in modelling of pluvial flooding was made there is a need to further enhance short term prediction of both rainfall and surface flooding. These issues are dealt with in the EU Iterreg project Rain Gain (RG). Breakthrough in urban flood mitigation can only be achieved by combined effects of advanced planning design, construction and management of urban water (blue) assets in interaction with urban vegetated areas' (green) assets. Changes in design and operation of blue and green assets, currently operating as two separate systems, is urgently required. Gaps in knowledge and technology will be introduced by EIT's Climate-KIC Blue Green Dream (BGD) project. The RG and BGD projects provide synergy of the "decoupled" blue and green systems to enhance multiple benefits to: urban amenity, flood management, heat island, biodiversity, resilience to drought thus energy requirements, thus increased quality of urban life at lower costs. Urban pluvial flood management will address two priority areas: Short Term rainfall Forecast and Short term flood surface forecast. Spatial resolution of short term rainfall forecast below 0.5 km2 and lead time of a few hours are needed. Improvements are achievable by combining data sources of raingauge networks

  10. The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: Fifty-Six Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aegisdottir, Stefania; White, Michael J.; Spengler, Paul M.; Maugherman, Alan S.; Anderson, Linda A.; Cook, Robert S.; Nichols, Cassandra N.; Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Walker, Blain S.; Cohen, Genna; Rush, Jeffrey D.

    2006-01-01

    Clinical predictions made by mental health practitioners are compared with those using statistical approaches. Sixty-seven studies were identified from a comprehensive search of 56 years of research; 92 effect sizes were derived from these studies. The overall effect of clinical versus statistical prediction showed a somewhat greater accuracy for…

  11. Project: "Project!"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine

    2007-01-01

    In November 2006, the editors of "Campus Technology" launched their first-ever High-Resolution Projection Study, to find out if the latest in projector technology could really make a significant difference in teaching, learning, and educational innovation on US campuses. The author and her colleagues asked campus educators,…

  12. Project: "Project!"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine

    2007-01-01

    In November 2006, the editors of "Campus Technology" launched their first-ever High-Resolution Projection Study, to find out if the latest in projector technology could really make a significant difference in teaching, learning, and educational innovation on US campuses. The author and her colleagues asked campus educators,…

  13. Environmental Impact Prediction Of Road Construction Projects On Natural Habitats Using Remotely Sensed Images(Case Study: Qazvin-Rasht Highway, Iran)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yazdankhah, Alireza; Gharebaghi, Amin; Saberi, Nastaran

    2010-05-01

    One of the most challenging parts of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is to identify and evaluate severity and extent of project's destructive affects on environment. During this study a new method has been developed to predict environmental impact. For this purpose, remotely sensed images in Qazvin-Rasht Highway area, Iran during years of 2004-2008 were used. Although natural habitats including Fauna and Flora are exposed to destructive affects in different various aspects, natural vegetation cover extent and density was chosen as a main environmental element. Changes in extent and density of vegetation cover can be calculated by change detection algorithms between selected images. In this study maps of vegetation cover in Iran are produced using Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images with spatial resolution of 15m. Vegetation cover obtained from NDVI index is classified in different species by classification methods. The next step is calculation of changes between pixels of images via existing change detection algorithms. Regression models were developed to predict the project activities impacts on vegetation. Forecast model of environmental effects on Flora can be so helpful in Environmental Impact Assessment of road construction projects especially in variants selection phase. It provides useful information for decision makers to select less harmful corridor to construct.

  14. Development of a Stochastic Inversion Tool To Optimize Agreement Between The Observed And Predicted Seismic Response To CO2 Injection/Migration in the Weyburn-Midale Project

    SciTech Connect

    Ramirez, A L; Hao, Y; White, D; Carle, S; Dyer, K; Yang, X; Mcnab, W; Foxall, W; Johnson, J

    2009-12-02

    During Phase 1 of the Weyburn Project (2000-2004), 4D reflection seismic data were used to map CO{sub 2} migration within the Midale reservoir, while an extensive fluid sampling program documented the geochemical evolution triggered by CO{sub 2}-brine-oil-mineral interactions. The aim of this task (3b.11) is to exploit these existing seismic and geochemical data sets, augmented by CO{sub 2}/H{sub 2}O injection and HC/H{sub 2}O production data toward optimizing the reservoir model and thereby improving site characterization and dependent predictions of long-term CO{sub 2} storage in the Weyburn-Midale reservoir. Our initial project activities have concentrated on developing a stochastic inversion method that will identify reservoir models that optimize agreement between the observed and predicted seismic response. This report describes the technical approach we have followed, the data that supports it, and associated implementation activities. The report fulfills deliverable D1 in the project's statement of work. Future deliverables will describe the development of the stochastic inversion tool that uses geochemical data to optimize the reservoir model.

  15. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  16. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  17. Predicting Fire-Regime Responses to Climate Change Over the Past Millennium: Implications of Paleodata-Model Comparisons for Future Projections of Fire Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, A. M.; Higuera, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Duffy, P.; Hu, F.

    2016-12-01

    . This work highlights differential skill in predicting fire activity beyond the observational record, implying greater uncertainty for projections in tundra ecosystems relative to boreal forest. Future work will focus on using these comparisons to constrain 21st-century projections of fire activity in Alaska.

  18. Bayesian spatial prediction of the site index in the study of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project

    Treesearch

    Xiaoqian Sun; Zhuoqiong He; John Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian spatial method for analysing the site index data from the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP). Based on ecological background and availability, we select three variables, the aspect class, the soil depth and the land type association as covariates for analysis. To allow great flexibility of the smoothness of the random field,...

  19. Project TALENT Five-Year Follow-Up Studies, Predicting Development of Young Adults. Interim Report 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooley, William W.; Lohnes, Paul R.

    The primary purpose of this monograph is to describe the relationship between adolescent personality and the educational and vocational development of young adults, criteria for the latter being developed from the Project TALENT follow-up studies. This relationship seeking is set in a context of career development theory and a concern for guidance…

  20. Detection of genes in Escherichia coli sequences determined by genome projects and prediction of protein production levels, based on multivariate diversity in codon usage.

    PubMed

    Kanaya, S; Kudo, Y; Nakamura, Y; Ikemura, T

    1996-06-01

    We used principal component analysis to develop measures (called Z-parameters in this study) which reflect the diversity of codon usage in Escherichia coli genes. Protein production levels for 1500 CDSs (protein-coding sequences) identified by E.coli genome projects in Japan and the US were estimated from a correlation equation between Z1 and cellular protein content obtained through analysis of the genes experimentally characterized. Through the profile analysis of Z1 for E.coli sequences obtained by the Japanese Project, we predicted an additional 36 CDSs that had not been annotated in the International DNA Database. Thirty-one out of the 36 CDSs could be assigned to presumptive protein genes through a BLASTX search for recent protein databases in the Genome Net in Japan. Detailed examination of the Z1-parameter profile led us to assess sequencing errors which cause frame-shift.

  1. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  2. Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

    2007-10-01

    We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

  3. Balloon Valvuloplasty to Predict X-ray Projection Angles that are Perpendicular to Cardiovascular Structures: A TAVI Patient Feasibility Study.

    PubMed

    Fetterly, Kenneth; Greason, Kevin; Mathew, Verghese

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this work is to describe methods to measure the 3D angular orientation of cardiovascular structures based on a planar image of a valvuloplasty balloon. These methods facilitate X-ray beam alignment with respect to the anatomy of interest. X-ray beam projections which are perpendicular to the long axis of cardiovascular structures are required to support interventional procedures, including transcatheter aortic valve implant (TAVI). During the TAVI procedure, the 3D angular orientation of the LVOT of 10 patients was measured from a single planar image of an aortic valvuloplasty balloon and the continuous range of X-ray projection angles which are aligned with the aortic valve plane were calculated (research method). Misalignment of the X-ray beam and TAVI valve frame was measured from images of the deployed valve. The accuracy of the research method was compared to clinical standard method to determine appropriate X-ray projection angles, which utilized CT and aortography. Using the clinical standard method, the median misalignment of the X-ray beam and TAVI valve frame was 8.6° (range 2.6° to 21°). Misalignment was reduced to 2.5° (range 0° to 10°) using the research method. The 3D angular orientation of cardiovascular structures can be measured accurately from a single X-ray projection image of a known cardiovascular device contained within the anatomy of interest. For TAVI procedures, improved X-ray beam alignment may help facilitate procedural success. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Validity of a Battery of Experimental Tests in Predicting Performance of Navy Project 100,000 Personnel

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-09-01

    WORDS (Countinue an revwo*o side iI noco.. and Idenitify by’ Nock rnhmber) Project 100,000 Personnel Retention Mental Group IVs Culture Fair Tests ...34 culture fair " aptitude tests that would permit the Navy to identify potentially successful recruits from those who scored low on conventional tests ...of the wide variety of " culture fair " tests evaluated, it is unlikely that paper- and-pencil tests can be found that will identify previously

  5. The Statistical Predictability of the Academic Performance of Registered Nursing Students at Macomb. Project No. 0141-77.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankovich, Mary Jo

    A study was conducted at Macomb County Community College to determine whether there was a significant relationship between grades earned in individual nursing courses and the scores earned on corresponding subsets of the state board exam for nursing graduates and also whether a nursing student's success could be predicted from admissions…

  6. Can Online Discussion Participation Predict Group Project Performance? Investigating the Roles of Linguistic Features and Participation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Jaebong; Kim, Jihie

    2014-01-01

    Although many college courses adopt online tools such as Q&A online discussion boards, there is no easy way to measure or evaluate their effect on learning. As a part of supporting instructional assessment of online discussions, we investigate a predictive relation between characteristics of discussion contributions and student performance.…

  7. Can Online Discussion Participation Predict Group Project Performance? Investigating the Roles of Linguistic Features and Participation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Jaebong; Kim, Jihie

    2014-01-01

    Although many college courses adopt online tools such as Q&A online discussion boards, there is no easy way to measure or evaluate their effect on learning. As a part of supporting instructional assessment of online discussions, we investigate a predictive relation between characteristics of discussion contributions and student performance.…

  8. Predicting and Projecting Stand Dominant Height From Inventory Data For Young Longleaf Pine Plantations in Southwest Georgia

    Treesearch

    John R. Brooks

    2004-01-01

    A stand dominant height prediction technique, based solely on diameter distribution and total height data from standard inventory procedures, was investigated. The data consist of 15 managed longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations that are part of a growth and yield study located in Worth, Mitchell, and Baker counties in southwest Georgia....

  9. Drug biokinetic and toxicity assessments in rat and human primary hepatocytes and HepaRG cells within the EU-funded Predict-IV project.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Stefan O; Guillouzo, André; Hewitt, Philip G; Richert, Lysiane

    2015-12-25

    The overall aim of Predict-IV (EU-funded collaborative project #202222) was to develop improved testing strategies for drug safety in the late discovery phase. One major focus was the prediction of hepatotoxicity as liver remains one of the major organ leading to failure in drug development, drug withdrawal and has a poor predictivity from animal experiments. In this overview we describe the use and applicability of the three cell models employed, i.e., primary rat hepatocytes, primary human hepatocytes and the human HepaRG cell line, using four model compounds, chlorpromazine, ibuprofen, cyclosporine A and amiodarone. This overview described the data generated on mode of action of liver toxicity after long-term repeat-dosing. Moreover we have quantified parent compound and its distribution in various in vitro compartments, which allowed us to develop biokinetic models where we could derive real exposure concentrations in vitro. In conclusion, the complex data set enables quantitative measurements that proved the concept that we can define human relevant free and toxic exposure levels in vitro. Further compounds have to be analyzed in a broader concentration range to fully exploit these promising results for improved prediction of hepatotoxicity and hazard assessment for humans.

  10. GRECOS Project (Genotyping Recurrence Risk of Stroke): The Use of Genetics to Predict the Vascular Recurrence After Stroke.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Cadenas, Israel; Mendióroz, Maite; Giralt, Dolors; Nafria, Cristina; Garcia, Elena; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Domingues-Montanari, Sophie; Delgado, Pilar; Ribó, Marc; Castellanos, Mar; Martínez, Sergi; Freijo, Marimar; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Rubiera, Marta; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A; Font, Maria Angels; Grau Olivares, Marta; Palomeras, Ernest; Perez de la Ossa, Natalia; Martinez-Zabaleta, Maite; Masjuan, Jaime; Moniche, Francisco; Canovas, David; Piñana, Carlos; Purroy, Francisco; Cocho, Dolores; Navas, Inma; Tejero, Carlos; Aymerich, Nuria; Cullell, Natalia; Muiño, Elena; Serena, Joaquín; Rubio, Francisco; Davalos, Antoni; Roquer, Jaume; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Martí-Fábregas, Joan; Keene, Keith; Chen, Wei-Min; Worrall, Bradford; Sale, Michele; Arboix, Adrià; Krupinski, Jerzy; Montaner, Joan

    2017-05-01

    Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack. Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk; therefore, we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS. We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in 3 patient cohorts comprising 4482 IS or transient ischemic attack patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score [Genotyping Reurrence Risk of Stroke]) and generated risk groups using a classification tree method. The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (hazard ratio, 1.33; P=9×10(-)(03)), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305); however, it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS (P=3.2×10(-)(09)) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared with previous Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II score (P=0.03). The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Operational strategy for soil concentration predictions of strontium/yttrium-90 and cesium-137 in surface soil at the West Valley Demonstration Project site

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, J.A.

    1995-06-05

    There are difficulties associated with the assessment of the interpretation of field measurements, determination of guideline protocols and control and disposal of low level radioactive contaminated soil in the environmental health physics field. Questions are raised among scientists and in public forums concerning the necessity and high costs of large area soil remediation versus the risks of low-dose radiation health effects. As a result, accurate soil activity assessments become imperative in decontamination situations. The West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP), a US Department of Energy facility located in West Valley, New York is managed and operated by West Valley Nuclear Services Co., Inc. (WVNS). WVNS has identified contaminated on-site soil areas with a mixed variety of radionuclides (primarily fission product). Through the use of data obtained from a previous project performed during the summer of 1994 entitled ``Field Survey Correlation and Instrumentation Response for an In Situ Soil Measurement Program`` (Myers), the WVDP offers a unique research opportunity to investigate the possibility of soil concentration predictions based on exposure or count rate responses returned from a survey detector probe. In this study, correlations are developed between laboratory measured soil beta activity and survey probe response for the purposes of determining the optimal detector for field use and using these correlations to establish predictability of soil activity levels.

  12. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  13. Final report for LDRD project {open_quotes}A new approach to protein function and structure prediction{close_quotes}

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, C.A.

    1997-03-01

    This report describes the research performed under the laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) grant {open_quotes}A new approach to protein function and structure prediction{close_quotes}, funded FY94-6. We describe the goals of the research, motivate and list our improvements to the state of the art in multiple sequence alignment and phylogeny (evolutionary tree) construction, but leave technical details to the six publications resulting from this work. At least three algorithms for phylogeny construction or tree consensus have been implemented and used by researchers outside of Sandia.

  14. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and prediction of atrial fibrillation and stroke: The Malmö Preventive Project.

    PubMed

    Berntsson, John; Smith, J Gustav; Nilsson, Peter M; Hedblad, Bo; Melander, Olle; Engström, Gunnar

    2017-01-01

    Background The increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation and novel therapeutic tools to prevent cardioembolic stroke has increased the need for risk markers. Objectives This study explored the relationship between the midregional sequence of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) levels with the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke, and whether measurement of MR-proANP improves the prediction of these outcomes. Methods MR-proANP was measured in fasting blood samples of 5130 subjects (69% men, mean age 69.2 ± 6.2 years) without a history of atrial fibrillation or stroke from the general population. The incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke was monitored over a median follow-up of 5.6 years. C-statistics and net reclassification improvement was used to assess the predictive ability of MR-proANP in addition to conventional risk factors. Results Log-normalized MR-proANP was significantly associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation ( n = 362; hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI) per 1 standard deviation (SD) 2.05, 1.86-2.27) and stroke from all causes ( n = 195; HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.12-1.50). The HR for stroke events related to atrial fibrillation was 1.79 (95% CI 1.25-2.58) per 1 SD. MR-proANP significantly improved the prediction of atrial fibrillation when added to a risk score of conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.69 vs. 0.75), mainly by down-classifying subjects who did not develop atrial fibrillation. A smaller improvement in predictive ability was observed for stroke (C statistic 0.66 vs. 0.68). Conclusion High plasma levels of MR-proANP are associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke in the middle-aged and elderly population. MR-proANP may be useful to identify individuals with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation.

  15. Prediction of Inhibitory Activity of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Inhibitors Using Grid Search-Projection Pursuit Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Du, Hongying; Hu, Zhide; Bazzoli, Andrea; Zhang, Yang

    2011-01-01

    The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) protein tyrosine kinase (PTK) is an important protein target for anti-tumor drug discovery. To identify potential EGFR inhibitors, we conducted a quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) study on the inhibitory activity of a series of quinazoline derivatives against EGFR tyrosine kinase. Two 2D-QSAR models were developed based on the best multi-linear regression (BMLR) and grid-search assisted projection pursuit regression (GS-PPR) methods. The results demonstrate that the inhibitory activity of quinazoline derivatives is strongly correlated with their polarizability, activation energy, mass distribution, connectivity, and branching information. Although the present investigation focused on EGFR, the approach provides a general avenue in the structure-based drug development of different protein receptor inhibitors. PMID:21811593

  16. Evaluation and development of hydrological parameterisations for the atmosphere, ocean and land surface coupled model developed by the UK Environmental Prediction (UKEP) Prototype project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto; Blyth, Eleanor; Ashton, Heather; Lewis, Huw

    2016-04-01

    The UKEP project brings together atmosphere, ocean and land surface models and scientist to build a coupled prediction system for the UK at 1.5 km scale. JULES (Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator) is the land surface model that generates runoff and simulates soil hydrology within the coupled prediction system. Here we present an evaluation of JULES performance at producing river flow for 13 selected catchments in Great Britain, where we use daily river flow observations at the catchment outlets. The evaluation is based on the Nush-Sutcliffe metric and bias. Results suggest that the inclusion of a new linear topographic slope dependency in the S0 parameter of the PDM (Probability Distributed Model, scheme that generates saturation excess runoff at the land surface when the soil water storage reaches S0), improves results for all catchments, constraining the surface runoff production for flatter catchments during rainy episodes. The new hydrological configuration developed offline using the JULES model has been implemented in the coupled prediction system for an intense winter storm case study. We found significant changes in accumulated runoff and total column soil moisture, and results consistent with the offline experiments with an increase in surface runoff on the high slopes of Scotland.

  17. Performance prediction of mechanical excavators from linear cutter tests on Yucca Mountain welded tuffs; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Gertsch, R.; Ozdemir, L.

    1992-09-01

    The performances of mechanical excavators are predicted for excavations in welded tuff. Emphasis is given to tunnel boring machine evaluations based on linear cutting machine test data obtained on samples of Topopah Spring welded tuff. The tests involve measurement of forces as cutters are applied to the rock surface at certain spacing and penetrations. Two disc and two point-attack cutters representing currently available technology are thus evaluated. The performance predictions based on these direct experimental measurements are believed to be more accurate than any previous values for mechanical excavation of welded tuff. The calculations of performance are predicated on minimizing the amount of energy required to excavate the welded tuff. Specific energy decreases with increasing spacing and penetration, and reaches its lowest at the widest spacing and deepest penetration used in this test program. Using the force, spacing, and penetration data from this experimental program, the thrust, torque, power, and rate of penetration are calculated for several types of mechanical excavators. The results of this study show that the candidate excavators will require higher torque and power than heretofore estimated.

  18. Depression predicts persistence of paranoia in clinical high-risk patients to psychosis: results of the EPOS project.

    PubMed

    Salokangas, Raimo K R; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Hietala, Jarmo; Heinimaa, Markus; From, Tiina; Ilonen, Tuula; Löyttyniemi, Eliisa; von Reventlow, Heinrich Graf; Juckel, Georg; Linszen, Don; Dingemans, Peter; Birchwood, Max; Patterson, Paul; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Ruhrmann, Stephan

    2016-02-01

    The link between depression and paranoia has long been discussed in psychiatric literature. Because the causality of this association is difficult to study in patients with full-blown psychosis, we aimed to investigate how clinical depression relates to the presence and occurrence of paranoid symptoms in clinical high-risk (CHR) patients. In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed for suspiciousness and paranoid symptoms with the structured interview for prodromal syndromes at baseline, 9- and 18-month follow-up. At baseline, clinical diagnoses were assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, childhood adversities by the Trauma and Distress Scale, trait-like suspiciousness by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, and anxiety and depressiveness by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. At baseline, 54.3% of CHR patients reported at least moderate paranoid symptoms. At 9- and 18-month follow-ups, the corresponding figures were 28.3 and 24.4%. Depressive, obsessive-compulsive and somatoform disorders, emotional and sexual abuse, and anxiety and suspiciousness associated with paranoid symptoms. In multivariate modelling, depressive and obsessive-compulsive disorders, sexual abuse, and anxiety predicted persistence of paranoid symptoms. Depressive disorder was one of the major clinical factors predicting persistence of paranoid symptoms in CHR patients. In addition, obsessive-compulsive disorder, childhood sexual abuse, and anxiety associated with paranoia. Effective pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatment of these disorders and anxiety may reduce paranoid symptoms in CHR patients.

  19. USGS "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" Project: Crowd-Tagging Aerial Photographs to Improve Coastal Change Prediction Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S. B.; Poore, B. S.; Plant, N. G.; Stockdon, H. F.; Morgan, K.; Snell, R.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring oblique aerial photographs of the coast before and after major storms since 1995 and has amassed a database of over 140,000 photographs of the Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific coasts. USGS coastal scientists use these photographs to document and characterize coastal change caused by storms. The images can also be used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models of coastal erosion. However, the USGS does not have the personnel to manually analyze all of the photographs taken after a storm. Also, computers cannot yet automatically identify damages and geomorphic changes to the coast from the oblique aerial photographs. There is a high public interest in accessing the limited number of pre- and post-storm photographic pairs the USGS is currently able to share. Recent federal policies that encourage open data and open innovation initiatives have resulted in many federal agencies developing new ways of using citizen science and crowdsourcing techniques to share data and collaborate with the public to accomplish large tasks. The USGS launched a crowdsourcing application in June 2014 called "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/icoast) to allow citizens to help USGS scientists identify changes to the coast by comparing USGS aerial photographs taken before and after storms, and then selecting pre-defined tags like "dune scarp" and "sand on road." The tags are accompanied by text definitions and pictorial examples of these coastal morphology terms and serve to informally and passively educate users about coastal hazards. The iCoast application facilitates greater citizen awareness of coastal change and is an educational resource for teachers and students interested in learning about coastal vulnerability. We expect that the citizen observations from iCoast will assist with probabilistic model development to produce more accurate predictions of coastal vulnerability.

  20. Clinical and Biologic Features Predictive of Survival After Relapse of Neuroblastoma: A Report From the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Project

    PubMed Central

    London, Wendy B.; Castel, Victoria; Monclair, Tom; Ambros, Peter F.; Pearson, Andrew D.J.; Cohn, Susan L.; Berthold, Frank; Nakagawara, Akira; Ladenstein, Ruth L.; Iehara, Tomoko; Matthay, Katherine K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Survival after neuroblastoma relapse is poor. Understanding the relationship between clinical and biologic features and outcome after relapse may help in selection of optimal therapy. Our aim was to determine which factors were significantly predictive of postrelapse overall survival (OS) in patients with recurrent neuroblastoma—particularly whether time from diagnosis to first relapse (TTFR) was a significant predictor of OS. Patients and Methods Patients with first relapse/progression were identified in the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) database. Time from study enrollment until first event and OS time starting from first event were calculated. Cox regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratio of increased death risk and perform survival tree regression. TTFR was tested in a multivariable Cox model with other factors. Results In the INRG database (N = 8,800), 2,266 patients experienced first progression/relapse. Median time to relapse was 13.2 months (range, 1 day to 11.4 years). Five-year OS from time of first event was 20% (SE, ± 1%). TTFR was statistically significantly associated with OS time in a nonlinear relationship; patients with TTFR of 36 months or longer had the lowest risk of death, followed by patients who relapsed in the period of 0 to less than 6 months or 18 to 36 months. Patients who relapsed between 6 and 18 months after diagnosis had the highest risk of death. TTFR, age, International Neuroblastoma Staging System stage, and MYCN copy number status were independently predictive of postrelapse OS in multivariable analysis. Conclusion Age, stage, MYCN status, and TTFR are significant prognostic factors for postrelapse survival and may help in the design of clinical trials evaluating novel agents. PMID:21768459

  1. Incorporation of a genetic factor into an epidemiologic model for prediction of individual risk of lung cancer: the Liverpool Lung Project.

    PubMed

    Raji, Olaide Y; Agbaje, Olorunsola F; Duffy, Stephen W; Cassidy, Adrian; Field, John K

    2010-05-01

    The Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) has previously developed a risk model for prediction of 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer based on five epidemiologic risk factors. SEZ6L, a Met430IIe polymorphic variant found on 22q12.2 region, has been previously linked with an increased risk of lung cancer in a case-control population. In this article, we quantify the improvement in risk prediction with addition of SEZ6L to the LLP risk model. Data from 388 LLP subjects genotyped for SEZ6L single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were combined with epidemiologic risk factors. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to predict 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer with and without this SNP. The improvement in the model associated with the SEZ6L SNP was assessed through pairwise comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the net reclassification improvements (NRI). The extended model showed better calibration compared with the baseline model. There was a statistically significant modest increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when SEZ6L was added into the baseline model. The NRI also revealed a statistically significant improvement of around 12% for the extended model; this improvement was better for subjects classified into the two intermediate-risk categories by the baseline model (NRI, 27%). Our results suggest that the addition of SEZ6L improved the performance of the LLP risk model, particularly for subjects whose initial absolute risks were unable to discriminate into "low-risk" or "high-risk" group. This work shows an approach to incorporate genetic biomarkers in risk models for predicting an individual's lung cancer risk.

  2. Tailoring dam structures to water quality predictions in new reservoir projects: assisting decision-making using numerical modeling.

    PubMed

    Marcé, Rafael; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; García-Barcina, José Ma; Armengol, Joan

    2010-06-01

    Selection of reservoir location, the floodable basin forest handling, and the design of dam structures devoted to water supply (e.g. water outlets) constitute relevant features which strongly determine water quality and frequently demand management strategies to be adopted. Although these crucial aspects should be carefully examined during dam design before construction, currently the development of ad hoc limnological studies tailoring dam location and dam structures to the water quality characteristics expected in the future reservoir is not typical practice. In this study, we use numerical simulation to assist on the design of a new dam project in Spain with the aim of maximizing the quality of the water supplied by the future reservoir. First, we ran a well-known coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamic numerical model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) to simulate the potential development of anoxic layers in the future reservoir. Then, we generated several scenarios corresponding to different potential hydraulic conditions and outlet configurations. Second, we built a simplified numerical model to simulate the development of the hypolimnetic oxygen content during the maturation stage after the first reservoir filling, taking into consideration the degradation of the terrestrial organic matter flooded and the adoption of different forest handling scenarios. Results are discussed in terms of reservoir design and water quality management. The combination of hypolimnetic withdrawal from two deep outlets and the removal of all the valuable terrestrial vegetal biomass before flooding resulted in the best water quality scenario. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS VIA HISTORY MATCHING OF CO2 MIGRATION AND REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING OF CO2 FATE AT THE SLEIPNER PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Chen

    2015-03-31

    An important question for the Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utility program is “can we adequately predict the CO2 plume migration?” For tracking CO2 plume development, the Sleipner project in the Norwegian North Sea provides more time-lapse seismic monitoring data than any other sites, but significant uncertainties still exist for some of the reservoir parameters. In Part I, we assessed model uncertainties by applying two multi-phase compositional simulators to the Sleipner Benchmark model for the uppermost layer (Layer 9) of the Utsira Sand and calibrated our model against the time-lapsed seismic monitoring data for the site from 1999 to 2010. Approximate match with the observed plume was achieved by introducing lateral permeability anisotropy, adding CH4 into the CO2 stream, and adjusting the reservoir temperatures. Model-predicted gas saturation, CO2 accumulation thickness, and CO2 solubility in brine—none were used as calibration metrics—were all comparable with the interpretations of the seismic data in the literature. In Part II & III, we evaluated the uncertainties of predicted long-term CO2 fate up to 10,000 years, due to uncertain reaction kinetics. Under four scenarios of the kinetic rate laws, the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 partitioning into the four trapping mechanisms (hydrodynamic/structural, solubility, residual/capillary, and mineral) was simulated with ToughReact, taking into account the CO2-brine-rock reactions and the multi-phase reactive flow and mass transport. Modeling results show that different rate laws for mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions resulted in different predicted amounts of trapped CO2 by carbonate minerals, with scenarios of the conventional linear rate law for feldspar dissolution having twice as much mineral trapping (21% of the injected CO2) as scenarios with a Burch-type or Alekseyev et al.–type rate law for feldspar dissolution (11%). So far, most reactive transport modeling (RTM) studies for

  4. Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in the main canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Cheng, Xi

    2014-11-01

    The middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRP) will divert water to Beijing Tuancheng Lake from Taocha in the Danjiangkou reservoir located in the Hubei province of China. The MRP is composed of a long canal and complex hydraulic structures and will transfer water in open channel areas to provide drinking water for Beijing, Shijiazhuang and other cities under extremely strict water quality requirements. A large number of vehicular accidents, occurred on the many highway bridges across the main canal would cause significant water pollution in the main canal. To ensure that water quality is maintained during the diversion process, the effects of pollutants on water quality due to sudden pollution accidents were simulated and analyzed in this paper. The MIKE11 HD module was used to calculate the hydraulic characteristics of the 42-km Xishi-to-Beijuma River channel of the MRP. Six types of hydraulic structures, including inverted siphons, gates, highway bridges, culverts and tunnels, were included in this model. Based on the hydrodynamic model, the MIKE11 AD module, which is one-dimensional advection dispersion model, was built for TP, NH3-N, CODMn and F. The validated results showed that the computed values agreed well with the measured values. In accordance with transportation data across the Dianbei Highway Bridge, the effects of traffic accidents on the bridge on water quality were analyzed. Based on simulated scenarios with three discharge rates (ranged from 12 m3/s to 17 m3/s, 40 m3/s, and 60 m3/s) and three pollution loading concentration levels (5 t, 10 t and 20 t) when trucks spill their contents (i.e., phosphate fertilizer, cyanide, oil and chromium solution) into the channel, emergency measures were proposed. Reasonable solutions to ensure the water quality with regard to the various types of pollutants were proposed, including treating polluted water, maintaining materials, and personnel reserves.

  5. Projecting Risk: The Importance of the HCR-20 Risk Management Scale in Predicting Outcomes with Forensic Patients.

    PubMed

    Vitacco, Michael J; Tabernik, Holly E; Zavodny, Denis; Bailey, Karen; Waggoner, Christina

    2016-03-01

    The present study evaluates data from 116 forensic inpatients who underwent violent risk assessments, which included the Historical, Clinical, Risk-20 (HCR-20), from 2006 to 2013 as part of an opportunity to be conditionally discharged from state forensic facilities. Of the 116 inpatients, 58 were never released, 39 were released and returned to a hospital, and 19 were released and never returned. Results from analyses of variance and multinomial logistic regression found the risk management (R) scale of the HCR-20 successfully predicted group membership in that higher scores were associated with a greater likelihood of not being released from a forensic facility or returning to a forensic facility after release. The results of this study indicate that clinicians should consider community-based risk variables when evaluating forensic patients for potential return to the community. This research demonstrates that clinicians failing to fully consider dynamic risk factors associated with community integration jeopardize the quality and thoroughness of their violence risk assessment with regards to readiness for release. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Pons to Posterior Cingulate Functional Projections Predict Affective Processing Changes in the Elderly Following Eight Weeks of Meditation Training.

    PubMed

    Shao, Robin; Keuper, Kati; Geng, Xiujuan; Lee, Tatia M C

    2016-08-01

    Evidence indicates meditation facilitates affective regulation and reduces negative affect. It also influences resting-state functional connectivity between affective networks and the posterior cingulate (PCC)/precuneus, regions critically implicated in self-referential processing. However, no longitudinal study employing active control group has examined the effect of meditation training on affective processing, PCC/precuneus connectivity, and their association. Here, we report that eight-week meditation, but not relaxation, training 'neutralized' affective processing of positive and negative stimuli in healthy elderly participants. Additionally, meditation versus relaxation training increased the positive connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and the pons, the direction of which was largely directed from the pons to the PCC/precuneus, as revealed by dynamic causal modeling. Further, changes in connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and pons predicted changes in affective processing after meditation training. These findings indicate meditation promotes self-referential affective regulation based on increased regulatory influence of the pons on PCC/precuneus, which new affective-processing strategy is employed across both resting state and when evaluating affective stimuli. Such insights have clinical implications on interventions on elderly individuals with affective disorders.

  7. Factors that predict financial sustainability of community coalitions: five years of findings from the PROSPER partnership project.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Mark T; Feinberg, Mark E; Johnson, Lesley E; Perkins, Daniel F; Welsh, Janet A; Spoth, Richard L

    2015-01-01

    This study is a longitudinal investigation of the Promoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience (PROSPER) partnership model designed to evaluate the level of sustainability funding by community prevention teams, including which factors impact teams' generation of sustainable funding. Community teams were responsible for choosing, implementing with quality, and sustaining evidence-based programs (EBPs) intended to reduce substance misuse and promote positive youth and family development. Fourteen US rural communities and small towns were studied. Data were collected from PROSPER community team members (N = 164) and prevention coordinators (N = 10) over a 5-year period. Global and specific aspects of team functioning were assessed over six waves. Outcome measures were the total funds (cash and in-kind) raised to implement prevention programs. All 14 community teams were sustained for the first 5 years. However, there was substantial variability in the amount of funds raised, and these differences were predicted by earlier and concurrent team functioning and by team sustainability planning. Given the sufficient infrastructure and ongoing technical assistance provided by the PROSPER partnership model, local sustainability of EBPs is achievable.

  8. Factors That Predict Financial Sustainability of Community Coalitions: Five Years of Findings from the PROSPER Partnership Project

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Mark T.; Feinberg, Mark E.; Johnson, Lesley E.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Welsh, Janet A.; Spoth, Richard L.

    2014-01-01

    This study is a longitudinal investigation of the PROSPER partnership model designed to evaluate the level of sustainability funding by community prevention teams, including which factors impact teams’ generation of sustainable funding. Community teams were responsible for choosing, implementing with quality, and sustaining evidence-based programs (EBPs) intended to reduce substance misuse and promote positive youth and family development. Fourteen US rural communities and small towns were studied. Data were collected from PROSPER community team members (N=164) and Prevention Coordinators (N=10), over a 5-year period. Global and specific aspects of team functioning were assessed over 6 waves. Outcome measures were the total funds (cash and in-kind) raised to implement prevention programs. All 14 community teams were sustained for the first five years. However, there was substantial variability in the amount of funds raised and these differences were predicted by earlier and concurrent team functioning and by team sustainability planning. Given the sufficient infrastructure and ongoing technical assistance provided by the PROSPER partnership model, local sustainability of EBPs is achievable. PMID:24706195

  9. Operation Jangle Project 2. 0 - predicted scaling of radiological effects to operational weapons Report for October-November 1951

    SciTech Connect

    Schorr, M.G.; Gilfillan, E.S.

    1984-10-31

    This report predicts the radiological contamination that may result from fission bombs detonated near the surface of the earth and underground. The radiation received is primarily a result of the initial radiation from the early fission products and fallout of radioactive material from the high cloud. The distribution of the fallout is determined by constructing a mathematical model and adjusting the parameters of the model to fit actual Jangle data. The model is then scaled up to larger weapons by scaling these parameters in conformity with existing formulations of nuclear-explosion cloud dynamics. The initial radiation is calculated in a straightforward manner. The resulting dose and dose-rate contours are given, as are the areas enclosed by given contours. It is concluded that the base surge at the Jangle underground nuclear explosion did not contain an appreciable amount of radioactive material, and this will probably also be true for operational weapons except at very great explosion depths. The cratering action of explosives is discussed, and it is found that atomic bombs exploded near the earth surface should give crater radii which sale as the one-sixth power of the energy release rather than the one-third power scaling applicable to high explosives.

  10. Contact with Counter-Stereotypical Women Predicts Less Sexism, Less Rape Myth Acceptance, Less Intention to Rape (in Men) and Less Projected Enjoyment of Rape (in Women).

    PubMed

    Taschler, Miriam; West, Keon

    2017-01-01

    Intergroup contact-(positive) interactions with people from different social groups-is a widely researched and strongly supported prejudice-reducing mechanism shown to reduce prejudice against a wide variety of outgroups. However, no known previous research has investigated whether intergroup contact can also reduce sexism against women. Sexism has an array of negative outcomes. One of the most detrimental and violent ones is rape, which is both justified and downplayed by rape myth acceptance. We hypothesised that more frequent, higher quality contact with counter-stereotypical women would predict lower levels of sexism and thus less rape myth acceptance (in men) and less sexualised projected responses to rape (in women). Two studies using online surveys with community samples supported these hypotheses. In Study 1, 170 male participants who experienced more positive contact with counter-stereotypical women reported less intention to rape. Similarly, in Study 2, 280 female participants who experienced more positive contact with counter-stereotypical women reported less projected sexual arousal at the thought of being raped. Thus, the present research is the first known to show that contact could be a potential tool to combat sexism, rape myth acceptance, intentions to rape in men, and sexualisation of rape by women.

  11. The contribution of educational class in improving accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction across European regions: The MORGAM Project Cohort Component.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, Marco M; Veronesi, Giovanni; Chambless, Lloyd E; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Salomaa, Veikko; Borglykke, Anders; Hart, Nigel; Söderberg, Stefan; Cesana, Giancarlo

    2014-08-01

    To assess whether educational class, an index of socioeconomic position, improves the accuracy of the SCORE cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. In a pooled analysis of 68 455 40-64-year-old men and women, free from coronary heart disease at baseline, from 47 prospective population-based cohorts from Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Sweden), the UK (Northern Ireland, Scotland), Central Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Poland) and Russia, we assessed improvements in discrimination and in risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI)) when education was added to models including the SCORE risk equation. The lowest educational class was associated with higher CVD mortality in men (pooled age-adjusted HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.90) and women (HR=1.31, 1.02 to 1.68). In men, the HRs ranged from 1.3 (Central Europe) to 2.1 (Eastern Europe and Russia). After adjustment for the SCORE risk, the association remained statistically significant overall, in the UK and Eastern Europe and Russia. Education significantly improved discrimination in all European regions and classification in Nordic countries (clinical NRI=5.3%) and in Eastern Europe and Russia (NRI=24.7%). In women, after SCORE risk adjustment, the association was not statistically significant, but the reduced number of deaths plays a major role, and the addition of education led to improvements in discrimination and classification in the Nordic countries only. We recommend the inclusion of education in SCORE CVD risk equation in men, particularly in Nordic and East European countries, to improve social equity in primary prevention. Weaker evidence for women warrants the need for further investigations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Prediction of SSRI treatment response in major depression based on serotonin transporter interplay between median raphe nucleus and projection areas.

    PubMed

    Lanzenberger, Rupert; Kranz, Georg S; Haeusler, Daniela; Akimova, Elena; Savli, Markus; Hahn, Andreas; Mitterhauser, Markus; Spindelegger, Christoph; Philippe, Cecile; Fink, Martin; Wadsak, Wolfgang; Karanikas, Georgios; Kasper, Siegfried

    2012-11-01

    Recent mathematical models suggest restored serotonergic burst-firing to underlie the antidepressant effect of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), resulting from down-regulated serotonin transporters (SERT) in terminal regions. This mechanism possibly depends on the interregional balance between SERTs in the raphe nuclei and in terminal regions before treatment. To evaluate these hypotheses on a systems level in humans in vivo, we investigated SERT availability and occupancy longitudinally in patients with major depressive disorder using positron emission tomography (PET) and the radioligand [11C]DASB. Measurements were performed before and after a single oral dose, as well as after three weeks (mean 24.73±3.3 days) of continuous oral treatment with either escitalopram (10 mg/day) or citalopram (20 mg/day). Data were analyzed using voxel-wise linear regression and ANOVA to evaluate SERT binding, occupancy and binding ratios (SERT binding of the entire brain compared to SERT binding in the dorsal and median raphe nuclei) in relation to treatment outcome. Regression analysis revealed that treatment response was predicted by pre-treatment SERT binding ratios, i.e., SERT binding in key regions of depression including bilateral habenula, amygdala-hippocampus complex and subgenual cingulate cortex in relation to SERT binding in the median but not dorsal raphe nucleus (p<0.05 FDR-corrected). Similar results were observed in the direct comparison of responders and non-responders. Our data provide a first proof-of-concept for recent modeling studies and further underlie the importance of the habenula and subgenual cingulate cortex in the etiology of and recovery from major depression. These findings may indicate a promising molecular predictor of treatment response and stimulate new treatment approaches based on regional differences in SERT binding.

  13. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    PubMed

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a

  14. The PreViBOSS project: study the short term predictability of the visibility change during the Fog life cycle, from surface and satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, T.; Haeffelin, M.; Ramon, D.; Gomes, L.; Brunet, F.; Vrac, M.; Yiou, P.; Hello, G.; Petithomme, H.

    2010-07-01

    Fog prejudices major activities as transport and Earth observation, by critically reducing atmospheric visibility with no continuity in time and space. Fog is also an essential factor of air quality and climate as it modifies particle properties of the surface atmospheric layer. Complexity, diversity and the fine scale of processes make uncertain by current numerical weather prediction models, not only visibility diagnosis but also fog event prediction. Extensive measurements of atmospheric parameters are made on the SIRTA since 1997 to document physical processes over the atmospheric column, in the Paris suburb area, typical of an environment intermittently under oceanic influence and affected by urban and industrial pollution. The ParisFog field campaign hosted in SIRTA during 6-month in winter 2006-2007 resulted in the deployment of instrumentation specifically dedicated to study physical processes in the fog life cycle: thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical processes. Analysis of the measurements provided a preliminary climatology of the episodes of reduced visibility, chronology of processes was delivered by examining time series of measured parameters and a closure study was performed on optical and microphysical properties of particles (aerosols to droplets) during the life cycle of a radiative fog, providing the relative contribution of several particle groups to extinction in clear-sky conditions, in haze and in fog. PreViBOSS is a 3-year project scheduled to start this year. The aim is to improve the short term prediction of changes in atmospheric visibility, at a local scale. It proposes an innovative approach: applying the Generalised Additive Model statistical method to the detailed and extended dataset acquired at SIRTA. This method offers the opportunity to explore non linear relationships between parameters, which are not yet integrated in current numerical models. Emphasis will be put on aerosols and their impact on the fog life

  15. Predictive Values of the New Sarcopenia Index by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Sarcopenia Project for Mortality among Older Korean Adults.

    PubMed

    Moon, Joon Ho; Kim, Kyoung Min; Kim, Jung Hee; Moon, Jae Hoon; Choi, Sung Hee; Lim, Soo; Lim, Jae-Young; Kim, Ki Woong; Park, Kyong Soo; Jang, Hak Chul

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Sarcopenia Project's recommended criteria for sarcopenia's association with mortality among older Korean adults. We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study which included 560 (285 men and 275 women) older Korean adults aged ≥65 years. Muscle mass (appendicular skeletal muscle mass-to-body mass index ratio (ASM/BMI)), handgrip strength, and walking velocity were evaluated in association with all-cause mortality during 6-year follow-up. Both the lowest quintile for each parameter (ethnic-specific cutoff) and FNIH-recommended values were used as cutoffs. Forty men (14.0%) and 21 women (7.6%) died during 6-year follow-up. The deceased subjects were older and had lower ASM, handgrip strength, and walking velocity. Sarcopenia defined by both low lean mass and weakness had a 4.13 (95% CI, 1.69-10.11) times higher risk of death, and sarcopenia defined by a combination of low lean mass, weakness, and slowness had a 9.56 (3.16-28.90) times higher risk of death after adjusting for covariates in men. However, these significant associations were not observed in women. In terms of cutoffs of each parameter, using the lowest quintile showed better predictive values in mortality than using the FNIH-recommended values. Moreover, new muscle mass index, ASM/BMI, provided better prognostic values than ASM/height2 in all associations. New sarcopenia definition by FNIH was better able to predict 6-year mortality among Korean men. Moreover, ethnic-specific cutoffs, the lowest quintile for each parameter, predicted the higher risk of mortality than the FNIH-recommended values.

  16. Predictive models for suicidal thoughts and behaviors among Spanish University students: rationale and methods of the UNIVERSAL (University & mental health) project.

    PubMed

    Blasco, Maria Jesús; Castellví, Pere; Almenara, José; Lagares, Carolina; Roca, Miquel; Sesé, Albert; Piqueras, José Antonio; Soto-Sanz, Victoria; Rodríguez-Marín, Jesús; Echeburúa, Enrique; Gabilondo, Andrea; Cebrià, Ana Isabel; Miranda-Mendizábal, Andrea; Vilagut, Gemma; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Auerbach, Randy P; Kessler, Ronald C; Alonso, Jordi

    2016-05-04

    Suicide is a leading cause of death among young people. While suicide prevention is considered a research and intervention priority, longitudinal data is needed to identify risk and protective factors associate with suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Here we describe the UNIVERSAL (University and Mental Health) project which aims are to: (1) test prevalence and 36-month incidence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors; and (2) identify relevant risk and protective factors associated with the incidence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors among university students in Spain. An ongoing multicenter, observational, prospective cohort study of first year university students in 5 Spanish universities. Students will be assessed annually during a 36 month follow-up. The surveys will be administered through an online, secure web-based platform. A clinical reappraisal will be completed among a subsample of respondents. Suicidal thoughts and behaviors will be assess with the Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviors Interview (SITBI) and the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS). Risk and protective factors will include: mental disorders, measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 3.0 (CIDI 3.0) and Screening Scales (CIDI-SC), and the Epi-Q Screening Survey (EPI-Q-SS), socio-demographic variables, self-perceived health status, health behaviors, well-being, substance use disorders, service use and treatment. The UNIVERSAL project is part of the International College Surveys initiative, which is a core project within the World Mental Health consortium. Lifetime and the 12-month prevalence will be calculated for suicide ideation, plans and attempts. Cumulative incidence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors, and mental disorders will be measured using the actuarial method. Risk and protective factors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors will be analyzed by Cox proportional hazard models. The study will provide valid, innovative and useful data for developing

  17. IMI - oral biopharmaceutics tools project - evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 1: Characterisation of the OrBiTo database of compounds.

    PubMed

    Margolskee, Alison; Darwich, Adam S; Pepin, Xavier; Pathak, Shriram M; Bolger, Michael B; Aarons, Leon; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Angstenberger, Jonas; Graf, Franziska; Laplanche, Loic; Müller, Thomas; Carlert, Sara; Daga, Pankaj; Murphy, Dónal; Tannergren, Christer; Yasin, Mohammed; Greschat-Schade, Susanne; Mück, Wolfgang; Muenster, Uwe; van der Mey, Dorina; Frank, Kerstin Julia; Lloyd, Richard; Adriaenssen, Lieve; Bevernage, Jan; De Zwart, Loeckie; Swerts, Dominique; Tistaert, Christophe; Van Den Bergh, An; Van Peer, Achiel; Beato, Stefania; Nguyen-Trung, Anh-Thu; Bennett, Joanne; McAllister, Mark; Wong, Mei; Zane, Patricia; Ollier, Céline; Vicat, Pascale; Kolhmann, Markus; Marker, Alexander; Brun, Priscilla; Mazuir, Florent; Beilles, Stéphane; Venczel, Marta; Boulenc, Xavier; Loos, Petra; Lennernäs, Hans; Abrahamsson, Bertil

    2017-01-01

    Predicting oral bioavailability (Foral) is of importance for estimating systemic exposure of orally administered drugs. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation have been applied extensively in biopharmaceutics recently. The Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project (Innovative Medicines Initiative) aims to develop and improve upon biopharmaceutical tools, including PBPK absorption models. A large-scale evaluation of PBPK models may be considered the first step. Here we characterise the OrBiTo active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) database for use in a large-scale simulation study. The OrBiTo database comprised 83 APIs and 1475 study arms. The database displayed a median logP of 3.60 (2.40-4.58), human blood-to-plasma ratio of 0.62 (0.57-0.71), and fraction unbound in plasma of 0.05 (0.01-0.17). The database mainly consisted of basic compounds (48.19%) and Biopharmaceutics Classification System class II compounds (55.81%). Median human intravenous clearance was 16.9L/h (interquartile range: 11.6-43.6L/h; n=23), volume of distribution was 80.8L (54.5-239L; n=23). The majority of oral formulations were immediate release (IR: 87.6%). Human Foral displayed a median of 0.415 (0.203-0.724; n=22) for IR formulations. The OrBiTo database was found to be largely representative of previously published datasets. 43 of the APIs were found to satisfy the minimum inclusion criteria for the simulation exercise, and many of these have significant gaps of other key parameters, which could potentially impact the interpretability of the simulation outcome. However, the OrBiTo simulation exercise represents a unique opportunity to perform a large-scale evaluation of the PBPK approach to predicting oral biopharmaceutics.

  18. Ground-Based Cloud and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations for the Project: High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsikko, A.; Ebell, K.; Ulrich, U.; Schween, J. H.; Bohn, B.; Görsdorf, U.; Leinweber, R.; Päschke, E.; Baars, H.; Seifert, P.; Klein Baltink, H.

    2014-12-01

    The German research initiative ''High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2'' aims for an improved representation of clouds and precipitation in climate models. Model development and its evaluation require comprehensive observational datasets. A specific work package was established to create uniform and documented observational datasets for the HD(CP)2 data base. Datasets included ground-based remote-sensing (Doppler lidars, ceilometers, microwave radiometers, and cloud radars) and in-situ (meteorological and radiation sensors) measurements. Four supersites (Jülich ObservatorY for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory - Richard Assmann Observatory (RAO), and Leipzig Aerosol and Cloud Remote Observations System (LACROS) in Germany, and Cabauw experimental site for atmospheric research (Cesar) in the Netherlands) are finalizing the operational procedures to provide quality controlled (and calibrated if possible) remote-sensing and in-situ observations, retrievals on atmospheric boundary layer state (e.g. winds, mixing layer height, humidity and temperature), and cloud macro and micro physical properties with uncertainty estimations or at least quality flags. During the project new processing and retrieval methods were developed if no commonly agreed or satisfying methods were available. Especially, large progress was made concerning uncertainty estimation and automated quality control. Additionally, the data from JOYCE are used in a radiative closure studies under cloudy conditions to evaluate retrievals of cloud properties. The current status of work progress will be presented.

  19. Predicting aqueous solubility of environmentally relevant compounds from molecular features: a simple but highly effective four-dimensional model based on Project to Latent Structures.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Feng; Gulliver, John S; Simcik, Matt F

    2013-09-15

    The aqueous solubility (log S) of xenobiotic chemicals has been identified as a key characteristic in determining their bioaccessibility/bioavailability and their fate and transport in aquatic environments. We here explore and evaluate the use of a state-of-the-art data analysis technique (Project to Latent Structures, PLS) to estimate log S of environmentally relevant chemicals. A large number (n = 624) of molecular descriptors was computed for over 1400 organic chemicals, and then refined by a feature selection technique. Candidate predictor descriptors were fitted to data by means of PLS, which was optimized by an internal leave-one-out cross-validation technique and validated by an external data set. The final (best) PLS model with only four variables (AlogP, X1sol, Mv, and E) exhibited noteworthy stability and good predictive power. It was able to explain 91% of the data (n = 1400) variance with an average absolute error of 0.5 log units through the solubilities span over 12 orders of magnitude. The newly proposed model is transparent, easily portable from one user to another, and robust enough to accurately estimate log S of a wide range of emerging contaminants.

  20. Projection methods

    Treesearch

    Michael E. Goerndt; W. Keith Moser; Patrick D. Miles; Dave Wear; Ryan D. DeSantis; Robert J. Huggett; Stephen R. Shifley; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth E. Skog

    2016-01-01

    One purpose of the Northern Forest Futures Project is to predict change in future forest attributes across the 20 States in the U.S. North for the period that extends from 2010 to 2060. The forest attributes of primary interest are the 54 indicators of forest sustainability identified in the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators (Montreal Process Working Group, n.d...

  1. Project summaries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Lunar base projects, including a reconfigurable lunar cargo launcher, a thermal and micrometeorite protection system, a versatile lifting machine with robotic capabilities, a cargo transport system, the design of a road construction system for a lunar base, and the design of a device for removing lunar dust from material surfaces, are discussed. The emphasis on the Gulf of Mexico project was on the development of a computer simulation model for predicting vessel station keeping requirements. An existing code, used in predicting station keeping requirements for oil drilling platforms operating in North Shore (Alaska) waters was used as a basis for the computer simulation. Modifications were made to the existing code. The input into the model consists of satellite altimeter readings and water velocity readings from buoys stationed in the Gulf of Mexico. The satellite data consists of altimeter readings (wave height) taken during the spring of 1989. The simulation model predicts water velocity and direction, and wind velocity.

  2. The IACOB project. IV. New predictions for high-degree non-radial mode instability domains in massive stars and their connection with macroturbulent broadening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godart, M.; Simón-Díaz, S.; Herrero, A.; Dupret, M. A.; Grötsch-Noels, A.; Salmon, S. J. A. J.; Ventura, P.

    2017-01-01

    Context. Asteroseismology is a powerful tool to access the internal structure of stars. Apart from the important impact of theoretical developments, progress in this field has been commonly associated with the analysis of time-resolved observations. Recently, the so-called macroturbulent broadening has been proposed as a complementary and less expensive way - in terms of observational time - to investigate pulsations in massive stars. Aims: We assess to what extent this ubiquitous non-rotational broadening component which shapes the line profiles of O stars and B supergiants is a spectroscopic signature of pulsation modes driven by a heat mechanism. Methods: We compute stellar main-sequence and post-main-sequence models from 3 to 70 M⊙ with the ATON stellar evolution code, and determine the instability domains for heat-driven modes for degrees ℓ = 1-20 using the adiabatic and non-adiabatic codes LOSC and MAD. We use the observational material compiled in the framework of the IACOB project to investigate possible correlations between the single snapshot line-broadening properties of a sample of ≈260 O and B-type stars and their location inside or outside the various predicted instability domains. Results: We present an homogeneous prediction for the non-radial instability domains of massive stars for degree ℓ up to 20. We provide a global picture of what to expect from an observational point of view in terms of the frequency range of excited modes, and we investigate the behavior of the instabilities with respect to stellar evolution and the degree of the mode. Furthermore, our pulsational stability analysis, once compared to the empirical results, indicates that stellar oscillations originated by a heat mechanism cannot explain alone the occurrence of the large non-rotational line-broadening component commonly detected in the O star and B supergiant domain. Based on observations made with the Nordic Optical Telescope, operated by NOTSA, and the Mercator

  3. The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

    2017-04-01

    DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on

  4. Glyphosate Use Predicts ADHD Hospital Discharges in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Net (HCUPnet): A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fluegge, Keith R.; Fluegge, Kyle R.

    2015-01-01

    There has been considerable international study on the etiology of rising mental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), in human populations. As glyphosate is the most commonly used herbicide in the world, we sought to test the hypothesis that glyphosate use in agriculture may be a contributing environmental factor to the rise of ADHD in human populations. State estimates for glyphosate use and nitrogen fertilizer use were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We queried the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project net (HCUPNET) for state-level hospitalization discharge data in all patients for all-listed ADHD from 2007 to 2010. We used rural-urban continuum codes from the USDA-Economic Research Service when exploring the effect of urbanization on the relationship between herbicide use and ADHD. Least squares dummy variable (LSDV) method and within method using two-way fixed effects was used to elucidate the relationship between glyphosate use and all-listed ADHD hospital discharges. We show that a one kilogram increase in glyphosate use, in particular, in one year significantly positively predicts state-level all-listed ADHD discharges, expressed as a percent of total mental disorders, the following year (coefficient = 5.54E-08, p<.01). A study on the effect of urbanization on the relationship between glyphosate and ADHD indicates that the relationship is marginally significantly positive after multiple comparison correction only in urban U.S. counties (p<.025). Furthermore, total glyphosate use is strongly positively associated with total farm use of nitrogen fertilizers from 1992 to 2006 (p<.001). We present evidence from the biomedical research literature of a plausible link among glyphosate, nitrogen dysbiosis and ADHD. Glyphosate use is a significant predictor of state hospitalizations for all-listed ADHD hospital discharges, with the effect concentrated in urban U.S. counties. This effect is seen even after controlling

  5. Prediction of Pseudo relative velocity response spectra at Yucca Mountain for underground nuclear explosions conducted in the Pahute Mesa testing area at the Nevada testing site; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP), managed by the Office of Geologic Disposal of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management of the US Department of Energy, is examining the feasibility of siting a repository for commercial, high-level nuclear wastes at Yucca Mountain on and adjacent to the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This work, intended to extend our understanding of the ground motion at Yucca Mountain resulting from testing of nuclear weapons on the NTS, was funded by the Yucca Mountain project and the Military Applications Weapons Test Program. This report summarizes one aspect of the weapons test seismic investigations conducted in FY88. Pseudo relative velocity response spectra (PSRV) have been calculated for a large body of surface ground motions generated by underground nuclear explosions. These spectra have been analyzed and fit using multiple linear regression techniques to develop a credible prediction technique for surface PSRVs. In addition, a technique for estimating downhole PSRVs at specific stations is included. A data summary, data analysis, prediction development, prediction evaluation, software summary and FORTRAN listing of the prediction technique are included in this report.

  6. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  7. Climate prediction and predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  8. Joint analysis of deposition fluxes and atmospheric concentrations of inorganic nitrogen and sulphur compounds predicted by six chemistry transport models in the frame of the EURODELTAIII project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivanco, M. G.; Bessagnet, B.; Cuvelier, C.; Theobald, M. R.; Tsyro, S.; Pirovano, G.; Aulinger, A.; Bieser, J.; Calori, G.; Ciarelli, G.; Manders, A.; Mircea, M.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Briganti, G.; Cappelletti, A.; Colette, A.; Couvidat, F.; D'Isidoro, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Pay, M. T.; Rouïl, L.; Silibello, C.; Thunis, P.; Ung, A.

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the UNECE Task Force on Measurement and Modelling (TFMM) under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), the EURODELTAIII project is evaluating how well air quality models are able to reproduce observed pollutant air concentrations and deposition fluxes in Europe. In this paper the sulphur and nitrogen deposition estimates of six state-of-the-art regional models (CAMx, CHIMERE, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI and CMAQ) are evaluated and compared for four intensive EMEP measurement periods (25 Feb-26 Mar 2009; 17 Sep-15 Oct 2008; 8 Jan-4 Feb 2007 and 1-30 Jun 2006). For sulphur, this study shows the importance of including sea salt sulphate emissions for obtaining better model results; CMAQ, the only model considering these emissions in its formulation, was the only model able to reproduce the high measured values of wet deposition of sulphur at coastal sites. MINNI and LOTOS-EUROS underestimate sulphate wet deposition for all periods and have low wet deposition efficiency for sulphur. For reduced nitrogen, all the models underestimate both wet deposition and total air concentrations (ammonia plus ammonium) in the summer campaign, highlighting a potential lack of emissions (or incoming fluxes) in this period. In the rest of campaigns there is a general underestimation of wet deposition by all models (MINNI and CMAQ with the highest negative bias), with the exception of EMEP, which underestimates the least and even overestimates deposition in two campaigns. This model has higher scavenging deposition efficiency for the aerosol component, which seems to partly explain the different behaviour of the models. For oxidized nitrogen, CMAQ, CAMx and MINNI predict the lowest wet deposition and the highest total air concentrations (nitric acid plus nitrates). Comparison with observations indicates a general underestimation of wet oxidized nitrogen deposition by these models, as well as an overestimation of total air concentration for

  9. Project PRISM: Project Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunnion, Maryellen; And Others

    The first of three volumes of Project PRISM, a program designed to help classroom teachers (grades 6 through 8) provide for the needs of their gifted and talented students without removing those students from the mainstream of education, outlines the project's background and achievements. Sections review the following project aspects (sample…

  10. PREDICTIVE MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M. )

    1986-12-01

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3) in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4) polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5) steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  11. EPA's ToxCast Project: Lessons learned and future directions for use of HTS in predicting in vivo toxicology -- A Chemical Perspective

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. EPA’s ToxCast and the related Tox21 projects are employing high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies to profile thousands of chemicals, which in turn serve as probes of a wide diversity of targets, pathways and mechanisms related to toxicity. Initial models relating ToxCa...

  12. EPA's ToxCast Project: Lessons learned and future directions for use of HTS in predicting in vivo toxicology -- A Chemical Perspective

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. EPA’s ToxCast and the related Tox21 projects are employing high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies to profile thousands of chemicals, which in turn serve as probes of a wide diversity of targets, pathways and mechanisms related to toxicity. Initial models relating ToxCa...

  13. Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeGange, Anthony R.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Lawler, James; Jorgenson, Torre; Winfree, Robert

    2014-01-01

    We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

  14. Predicting Breed Composition Using Breed Frequencies of 50,000 Markers from the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center 2,000 Bull Project

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Our objective was to evaluate whether breed composition of crossbred cattle could be predicted using reference breed frequencies of SNP markers on the BovineSNP50 array. Semen DNA samples of over 2,000 bulls from 16 common commercial beef breeds were genotyped using the array and used to estimate cu...

  15. Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

    Treesearch

    Anthony R. DeGange; Bruce G. Marcot; James Lawler; Torre Jorgenson; Robert. Winfree

    2013-01-01

    We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-...

  16. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  17. Use of Cumulative Degradation Factor Prediction and Life Test Result of the Thruster Gimbal Assembly Actuator for the Dawn Flight Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, C. John; Brophy, John R.; Etters, M. Andy; Ramesham, Rajeshuni; Jones, William R., Jr.; Jansen, Mark J.

    2009-01-01

    The Dawn Ion Propulsion System is the ninth project in NASA s Discovery Program. The Dawn spacecraft is being developed to enable the scientific investigation of the two heaviest main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. Dawn is the first mission to orbit two extraterrestrial bodies, and the first to orbit a main-belt asteroid. The mission is enabled by the onboard Ion Propulsion System (IPS) to provide the post-launch delta-V. The three Ion Engines of the IPS are mounted on Thruster Gimbal Assembly (TGA), with only one engine operating at a time for this 10-year mission. The three TGAs weigh 14.6 kg.

  18. Use Of The Terrestrial Observation And Prediction System (TOPS) For Developing Climate Adaptation Strategies: Projecting Changes In Tree Biomass And Its Storm Water Regulation Potential For NASA Field Centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milesi, C.; Wang, W.; Xiong, J.; Melton, F. S.; Hashimoto, H.; Iraci, L. T.; Loewenstein, M.

    2012-12-01

    Local governments and institutions are starting to prepare for the effects of climate change with the goal of minimizing disruptions in the functioning of communities by the worst consequences of unpredictable weather conditions, increased air pollution, sea level rise and changes in water supplies. NASA, through the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup activities, is developing tailored climate products for all its field centers to help preparing adaptation plans. Because the effects of climate change drivers are expected to differ by location and in scale, location-specific climate products with the appropriate geospatial context are needed for stakeholders to plan for the projected changes and develop coordinated initiatives. One of the key products addresses the role of vegetation on center operations in terms of storm hydrology and air pollution. Protecting existing tree biomass and afforestation are adaptation measures that can also contribute to reducing heat islands effects, energy conservation and air pollution mitigation. Here we present watershed case-study assessments of the impacts of projected climate changes and land use changes on tree canopy cover and its stormwater regulation potential using the biogeochemical cycling models within the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System. Assessments are driven by climate forcings provided by an ensemble of CMIP5 downscaled climate projections.

  19. Predicting Aircraft Availability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    ENS- GRP -13-J-2 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio...AFIT-ENS- GRP -13-J-2 PREDICTING AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY GRADUATE RESEARCH PROJECT Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational...APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT-ENS- GRP -13-J-2 PREDICTING AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY Mark A. Chapa

  20. Mortality prediction in the ICU: can we do better? Results from the Super ICU Learner Algorithm (SICULA) project, a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Pirracchio, Romain; Petersen, Maya L.; Carone, Marco; Rigon, Matthieu Resche; Chevret, Sylvie; van der LAAN, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Improved mortality prediction for patients in intensive care units (ICU) remains an important challenge. Many severity scores have been proposed but validation studies have concluded that they are not adequately calibrated. Many flexible algorithms are available, yet none of these individually outperform all others regardless of context. In contrast, the Super Learner (SL), an ensemble machine learning technique that leverages on multiple learning algorithms to obtain better prediction performance, has been shown to perform at least as well as the optimal member of its library. It might provide an ideal opportunity to construct a novel severity score with an improved performance profile. The aim of the present study was to provide a new mortality prediction algorithm for ICU patients using an implementation of the Super Learner, and to assess its performance relative to prediction based on the SAPS II, APACHE II and SOFA scores. Methods We used the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database (v26) including all patients admitted to an ICU at Boston’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center from 2001 to 2008. The calibration, discrimination and risk classification of predicted hospital mortality based on SAPS II, on APACHE II, on SOFA and on our Super Learned-based proposal were evaluated. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validation to avoid making biased assessments. Our proposed score was then externally validated on a dataset of 200 randomly selected patients admitted at the ICU of Hôpital Européen Georges-Pompidou in Paris, France between September 2013 and June 2014. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables were the same as those included in the SAPS II score. Results 24,508 patients were included, with median SAPS II 38 (IQR: 27–51), median SOFA 5 (IQR: 2–8). A total of 3,002/24,508(12.2%) patients died in the hospital. The two versions of our Super Learner

  1. Predictive Values of the New Sarcopenia Index by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Sarcopenia Project for Mortality among Older Korean Adults

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jung Hee; Moon, Jae Hoon; Choi, Sung Hee; Lim, Soo; Lim, Jae-Young; Kim, Ki Woong; Park, Kyong Soo; Jang, Hak Chul

    2016-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Sarcopenia Project’s recommended criteria for sarcopenia’s association with mortality among older Korean adults. Methods We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study which included 560 (285 men and 275 women) older Korean adults aged ≥65 years. Muscle mass (appendicular skeletal muscle mass-to-body mass index ratio (ASM/BMI)), handgrip strength, and walking velocity were evaluated in association with all-cause mortality during 6-year follow-up. Both the lowest quintile for each parameter (ethnic-specific cutoff) and FNIH-recommended values were used as cutoffs. Results Forty men (14.0%) and 21 women (7.6%) died during 6-year follow-up. The deceased subjects were older and had lower ASM, handgrip strength, and walking velocity. Sarcopenia defined by both low lean mass and weakness had a 4.13 (95% CI, 1.69–10.11) times higher risk of death, and sarcopenia defined by a combination of low lean mass, weakness, and slowness had a 9.56 (3.16–28.90) times higher risk of death after adjusting for covariates in men. However, these significant associations were not observed in women. In terms of cutoffs of each parameter, using the lowest quintile showed better predictive values in mortality than using the FNIH-recommended values. Moreover, new muscle mass index, ASM/BMI, provided better prognostic values than ASM/height2 in all associations. Conclusions New sarcopenia definition by FNIH was better able to predict 6-year mortality among Korean men. Moreover, ethnic-specific cutoffs, the lowest quintile for each parameter, predicted the higher risk of mortality than the FNIH-recommended values. PMID:27832145

  2. A Novel Probabilistic Multi-Scale Modeling and Sensing Framework for Fatigue Life Prediction of Aerospace Structures and Materials: DCT Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-25

    crystalline texture on the fatigue behavior of a 316l austenitic stainless steel . Mater. Sci. Engng., A286:257–268, 2000. [77] R. Morrissey, C. H. Goh...surfaces. This model has been used in [124] to predict the number of cycles for micro-crack nucleation in steel and aluminum alloys. Another class of...loading of Ti-6Al-4V has been presented in [78, 46, 45]. Crystal plasticity models for deformation and ratcheting fatigue of HSLA steels have been

  3. IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 2: An introduction to the simulation exercise and overview of results.

    PubMed

    Margolskee, Alison; Darwich, Adam S; Pepin, Xavier; Aarons, Leon; Galetin, Aleksandra; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Carlert, Sara; Hammarberg, Maria; Hilgendorf, Constanze; Johansson, Pernilla; Karlsson, Eva; Murphy, Dónal; Tannergren, Christer; Thörn, Helena; Yasin, Mohammed; Mazuir, Florent; Nicolas, Olivier; Ramusovic, Sergej; Xu, Christine; Pathak, Shriram M; Korjamo, Timo; Laru, Johanna; Malkki, Jussi; Pappinen, Sari; Tuunainen, Johanna; Dressman, Jennifer; Hansmann, Simone; Kostewicz, Edmund; He, Handan; Heimbach, Tycho; Wu, Fan; Hoft, Carolin; Laplanche, Loic; Pang, Yan; Bolger, Michael B; Huehn, Eva; Lukacova, Viera; Mullin, James M; Szeto, Ke X; Costales, Chester; Lin, Jian; McAllister, Mark; Modi, Sweta; Rotter, Charles; Varma, Manthena; Wong, Mei; Mitra, Amitava; Bevernage, Jan; Biewenga, Jeike; Van Peer, Achiel; Lloyd, Richard; Shardlow, Carole; Langguth, Peter; Mishenzon, Irina; Nguyen, Mai Anh; Brown, Jonathan; Lennernäs, Hans; Abrahamsson, Bertil

    2017-01-01

    Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (Foral), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three available PBPK software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp®, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated by comparing simulated and observed pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. Since the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, caution is required when interpreting the results of this exercise. Additionally, this prospective simulation exercise may not be representative of prospective modelling in industry, as API information was limited to sparse details. 43 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from the OrBiTo database were selected for the exercise. Over 4000 simulation output files were generated, representing over 2550 study arm-institution-software combinations and approximately 600 human clinical study arms simulated with overlap. 84% of the simulated study arms represented administration of immediate release formulations, 11% prolonged or delayed release, and 5% intravenous (i.v.). Higher percentages of i.v. predicted area under the curve (AUC) were within two-fold of observed (52.9%) compared to per oral (p.o.) (37.2%), however, Foral and relative AUC (Frel) between p.o. formulations and solutions were generally well predicted (64.7% and 75.0%). Predictive performance declined progressing from i.v. to solution and immediate release tablet, indicating the compounding error with each layer of complexity. Overall performance was comparable to previous large-scale evaluations. A general overprediction of AUC was observed with average fold error (AFE) of 1.56 over all simulations. AFE ranged from 0.0361 to 64.0 across the 43 APIs, with 25 showing overpredictions. Discrepancies between software packages

  4. Development and Implications of a Predictive Cost Methodology for Modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) Projects in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Witt, Adam; Chalise, Dol Raj; Hadjerioua, Boualem; Manwaring, Michael; Bishop, Norm

    2016-10-01

    The slow pace of Pumped Storage Hydropower development in the US over the past twenty years has led to widespread interest in the feasibility and viability of alternative PSH designs, development schemes, and technologies. Since 2011, Oak Ridge National Lab has been exploring the economic viability of modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) development through targeted case studies, revenue simulations, and analysis of innovative configurations and designs. This paper outlines the development and supporting analysis of a scalable, comprehensive cost modeling tool designed to simulate the initial capital costs for a variety of potential m-PSH projects and deployment scenarios. The tool is used to explore and determine innovative research strategies that can improve the economic viability of m-PSH in US markets.

  5. Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 1: Operational applications of satellite snow cover observations: Executive summary. [usefulness of satellite snow-cover data for water yield prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rango, A.

    1981-01-01

    Both LANDSAT and NOAA satellite data were used in improving snowmelt runoff forecasts. When the satellite snow cover data were tested in both empirical seasonal runoff estimation and short term modeling approaches, a definite potential for reducing forecast error was evident. A cost benefit analysis run in conjunction with the snow mapping indicated a $36.5 million annual benefit accruing from a one percent improvement in forecast accuracy using the snow cover data for the western United States. The annual cost of employing the system would be $505,000. The snow mapping has proven that satellite snow cover data can be used to reduce snowmelt runoff forecast error in a cost effective manner once all operational satellite data are available within 72 hours after acquisition. Executive summaries of the individual snow mapping projects are presented.

  6. Project Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1978

    1978-01-01

    Presents sixteen project notes developed by pupils of Chipping Norton School and Bristol Grammar School, in the United Kingdom. These Projects include eight biology A-level projects and eight Chemistry A-level projects. (HM)

  7. [Usefulness of imaging techniques and novel biomarkers in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic kidney disease in Spain: the NEFRONA project].

    PubMed

    Junyent, M; Martínez, M; Borrás, M; Bertriu, A; Coll, B; Craver, L; Marco, M P; Sarró, F; Valdivielso, J M; Fernández, E

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk, mainly due to the reverse epidemiology effect, and the presence of risk factors specifically related to uremia. Hereby, we present the protocol of a prospective study aimed to assess the predictive value of imaging techniques and biomarkers for CVD in patients with CKD. From November 2009, 2.661 asymptomatic adult patients with stages 3-5D CKD will be recruited from nephrology services and dialysis units throughout Spain. Eight hundred forty-three participants without CKD (control group) will be also recruited. During the follow-up, CVD events and mortality will be recorded from all CKD patients. One trained itinerant team will carry out a carotid ultrasound to assess intima-media thickness and presence of plaques. A composite atherosclerosis score will be constructed based on carotid ultrasound data and ankle-brachial index. Presence and type of calcifications will be assessed in carotid, femoral and brachial arteries, and in cardiac valves, by ultrasound. Finally, blood samples will be collected from all participants to study biomarkers. The NEFRONA study will allow us to examine the usefulness of imaging techniques and biomarkers to assess atherosclerosis development and their predictive value in a Spanish population with CKD.

  8. The cedar project: using indigenous-specific determinants of health to predict substance use among young pregnant-involved aboriginal women.

    PubMed

    Shahram, Sana Z; Bottorff, Joan L; Oelke, Nelly D; Dahlgren, Leanne; Thomas, Victoria; Spittal, Patricia M

    2017-09-15

    Indigenous women in Canada have been hyper-visible in research, policy and intervention related to substance use during pregnancy; however, little is known about how the social determinants of health and substance use prior to, during, and after pregnancy intersect. The objectives of this study were to describe the social contexts of pregnant-involved young Indigenous women who use substances and to explore if an Indigenous-Specific Determinants of Health Model can predict substance use among this population. Using descriptive statistics and hierarchical logistic regression guided by mediation analysis, the social contexts of pregnant-involved young Indigenous women who use illicit drugs' lives were explored and the Integrated Life Course and Social Determinants Model of Aboriginal Health's ability to predict heavy versus light substance use in this group was tested (N = 291). Important distal determinants of substance use were identified including residential school histories, as well as protective factors, such as sex abuse reporting and empirical evidence for including Indigenous-specific determinants of health as important considerations in understanding young Indigenous women's experiences with pregnancy and substance use was provided. This analysis provided important insight into the social contexts of women who have experiences with pregnancy as well as drug and/or alcohol use and highlighted the need to include Indigenous-specific determinants of health when examining young Indigenous women's social, political and historical contexts in relation to their experiences with pregnancy and substance use.

  9. On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

    PubMed Central

    UYEDA, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  10. On earthquake prediction in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author's view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology - on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors.

  11. Orthostatic Hypotension and Elevated Resting Heart Rate Predict Low-Energy Fractures in the Population: The Malmö Preventive Project

    PubMed Central

    Hamrefors, Viktor; Härstedt, Maria; Holmberg, Anna; Rogmark, Cecilia; Sutton, Richard; Melander, Olle; Fedorowski, Artur

    2016-01-01

    Background Autonomic disorders of the cardiovascular system, such as orthostatic hypotension and elevated resting heart rate, predict mortality and cardiovascular events in the population. Low-energy-fractures constitute a substantial clinical problem that may represent an additional risk related to such autonomic dysfunction. Aims To test the association between orthostatic hypotension, resting heart rate and incidence of low-energy-fractures in the general population. Methods and Results Using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models we investigated the association between orthostatic blood pressure response, resting heart rate and first incident low-energy-fracture in a population-based, middle-aged cohort of 33 000 individuals over 25 years follow-up. The median follow-up time from baseline to first incident fracture among the subjects that experienced a low energy fracture was 15.0 years. A 10 mmHg orthostatic decrease in systolic blood pressure at baseline was associated with 5% increased risk of low-energy-fractures (95% confidence interval 1.01–1.10) during follow-up, whereas the resting heart rate predicted low-energy-fractures with an effect size of 8% increased risk per 10 beats-per-minute (1.05–1.12), independently of the orthostatic response. Subjects with a resting heart rate exceeding 68 beats-per-minute had 18% (1.10–1.26) increased risk of low-energy-fractures during follow-up compared with subjects with a resting heart rate below 68 beats-per-minute. When combining the orthostatic response and resting heart rate, there was a 30% risk increase (1.08–1.57) of low-energy-fractures between the extremes, i.e. between subjects in the fourth compared with the first quartiles of both resting heart rate and systolic blood pressure-decrease. Conclusion Orthostatic blood pressure decline and elevated resting heart rate independently predict low-energy fractures in a middle-aged population. These two measures of subclinical cardiovascular

  12. Integrative Pathway Analysis of Metabolic Signature in Bladder Cancer: A Linkage to The Cancer Genome Atlas Project and Prediction of Survival

    PubMed Central

    von Rundstedt, Friedrich-Carl; Rajapakshe, Kimal; Ma, Jing; Arnold, James M.; Gohlke, Jie; Putluri, Vasanta; Krishnapuram, Rashmi; Piyarathna, D. Badrajee; Lotan, Yair; Gödde, Daniel; Roth, Stephan; Störkel, Stephan; Levitt, Jonathan M.; Michailidis, George; Sreekumar, Arun; Lerner, Seth P.; Coarfa, Cristian; Putluri, Nagireddy

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We used targeted mass spectrometry to study the metabolic fingerprint of urothelial cancer and determine whether the biochemical pathway analysis gene signature would have a predictive value in independent cohorts of patients with bladder cancer. Materials and Methods Pathologically evaluated, bladder derived tissues, including benign adjacent tissue from 14 patients and bladder cancer from 46, were analyzed by liquid chromatography based targeted mass spectrometry. Differential metabolites associated with tumor samples in comparison to benign tissue were identified by adjusting the p values for multiple testing at a false discovery rate threshold of 15%. Enrichment of pathways and processes associated with the metabolic signature were determined using the GO (Gene Ontology) Database and MSigDB (Molecular Signature Database). Integration of metabolite alterations with transcriptome data from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) was done to identify the molecular signature of 30 metabolic genes. Available outcome data from TCGA portal were used to determine the association with survival. Results We identified 145 metabolites, of which analysis revealed 31 differential metabolites when comparing benign and tumor tissue samples. Using the KEGG (Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes) Database we identified a total of 174 genes that correlated with the altered metabolic pathways involved. By integrating these genes with the transcriptomic data from the corresponding TCGA data set we identified a metabolic signature consisting of 30 genes. The signature was significant in its prediction of survival in 95 patients with a low signature score vs 282 with a high signature score (p = 0.0458). Conclusions Targeted mass spectrometry of bladder cancer is highly sensitive for detecting metabolic alterations. Applying transcriptome data allows for integration into larger data sets and identification of relevant metabolic pathways in bladder cancer progression. PMID:26802582

  13. A prospective, multicenter evaluation of predictive factors for positive surgical margins after nephron-sparing surgery for renal cell carcinoma: the RECORd1 Italian Project.

    PubMed

    Schiavina, Riccardo; Serni, Sergio; Mari, Andrea; Antonelli, Alessandro; Bertolo, Riccardo; Bianchi, Giampaolo; Brunocilla, Eugenio; Borghesi, Marco; Carini, Marco; Longo, Nicola; Martorana, Giuseppe; Mirone, Vincenzo; Morgia, Giuseppe; Porpiglia, Francesco; Rocco, Bernardo; Rovereto, Bruno; Simeone, Claudio; Sodano, Mario; Terrone, Carlo; Ficarra, Vincenzo; Minervini, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictors of positive margins in one of the largest available prospective multi-institutional studies. We evaluated all patients who underwent NSS for radiologically diagnosed kidney tumors between January 2009 and December 2012 at 19 urological Italian centers (Registry of Conservative Renal Surgery [RECORd] project). Preoperative and anthropometric data, comorbidities, intraoperative and postoperative outcomes, and histological findings were analyzed. The negative and PSMs were compared according to the clinical and surgical variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were applied to analyze predictors of PSMs. Eight hundred consecutive patients were evaluated. Seven hundred sixty-one (95.1%) and 39 patients (4.9%) achieved negative and PSMs, respectively. Patients with PSMs were significantly older compared with those with negative margins (median age: 66.6 vs. 61.8 years, respectively; P = .001). A higher incidence of PSMs was observed when NSS was performed for renal masses located in the upper pole (P = .001). A lower rate of PSMs was found in patients treated with simple enucleation rather than standard PN (1.6% vs. 7.4%, respectively; P < .0001). A greater incidence of PSMs was found in Fuhrman 3/4 tumors (11.3%; P < .0001). At multivariable analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; P = .01), upper pole tumor location (OR, 2.85; P = .005), standard PN (OR, 3.45; P = .004), and Fuhrman 3-4 nuclear grade (OR, 4.81; P = .001) were found to be independent predictors of PSMs. In our multi-institutional report, young age, simple enucleation, middle or lower tumor location, and low-grade tumor were demonstrated to be independent predictors of negative SMs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prenatal maternal stress predicts reductions in CD4+ lymphocytes, increases in innate-derived cytokines, and a Th2 shift in adolescents: Project Ice Storm.

    PubMed

    Veru, Franz; Dancause, Kelsey; Laplante, David P; King, Suzanne; Luheshi, Giamal

    2015-05-15

    The relationship between psychological stress and immunity is well established, but it is not clear if prenatal maternal stress (PNMS) affects the development of the immune system in humans. Our objective was to determine the extent of this influence in a sample of teenagers whose mothers were pregnant during the 1998 Quebec ice storm. As part of a longitudinal study of PNMS, we measured the objective stress exposure and subjective distress of the women soon after the disaster. We obtained blood samples from 37 of their children when they were 13years old to measure cell population percentages and mitogen-induced cytokine production. We found that the mothers' objective degree of PNMS exposure significantly predicted reductions in total and CD4+ lymphocyte proportions, increases in TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 levels, and an enhancement of the Th2 cytokines IL-4 and IL-13. Sex and timing of PNMS exposure during gestation were also associated with some outcomes. These results show that PNMS is a programming factor that can produce long-lasting consequences on immunity, potentially explaining non-genetic variability in immune-related disorders. This information contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the influence of PNMS on immune-mediated disorders in humans.

  15. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    SciTech Connect

    Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  16. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  17. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  18. Projects Work!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Textor, Martin R.

    2005-01-01

    The great educational value of projects is emphasized by contrasting negative aspects of the life of today's children with the goals of project work. This is illustrated by a project "Shopping." It is shown what children are learning in such projects and what the advantages of project work are. Relevant topic areas, criteria for selecting a…

  19. Project Wild (Project Tame).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siegenthaler, David

    For 37 states in the United States, Project Wild has become an officially sanctioned, distributed and funded "environemtnal and conservation education program." For those who are striving to implement focused, sequential, learning programs, as well as those who wish to promote harmony through a non-anthropocentric world view, Project…

  20. Project Wild (Project Tame).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siegenthaler, David

    For 37 states in the United States, Project Wild has become an officially sanctioned, distributed and funded "environemtnal and conservation education program." For those who are striving to implement focused, sequential, learning programs, as well as those who wish to promote harmony through a non-anthropocentric world view, Project…

  1. Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Azose, Jonathan J.; Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2016-01-01

    We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations’ Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated. PMID:27217571

  2. Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Azose, Jonathan J; Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-06-07

    We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.

  3. Clinical performance of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) for the prediction of prostate cancer in obese men: data from the PROMEtheuS project, a multicentre European prospective study.

    PubMed

    Abrate, Alberto; Lazzeri, Massimo; Lughezzani, Giovanni; Buffi, Nicolòmaria; Bini, Vittorio; Haese, Alexander; de la Taille, Alexandre; McNicholas, Thomas; Redorta, Joan Palou; Gadda, Giulio M; Lista, Giuliana; Kinzikeeva, Ella; Fossati, Nicola; Larcher, Alessandro; Dell'Oglio, Paolo; Mistretta, Francesco; Freschi, Massimo; Guazzoni, Giorgio

    2015-04-01

    To test serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) isoform [-2]proPSA (p2PSA), p2PSA/free PSA (%p2PSA) and Prostate Health Index (PHI) accuracy in predicting prostate cancer in obese men and to test whether PHI is more accurate than PSA in predicting prostate cancer in obese patients. The analysis consisted of a nested case-control study from the pro-PSA Multicentric European Study (PROMEtheuS) project. The study is registered at http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN04707454. The primary outcome was to test sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (clinical validity) of serum p2PSA, %p2PSA and PHI, in determining prostate cancer at prostate biopsy in obese men [body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m(2) ], compared with total PSA (tPSA), free PSA (fPSA) and fPSA/tPSA ratio (%fPSA). The number of avoidable prostate biopsies (clinical utility) was also assessed. Multivariable logistic regression models were complemented by predictive accuracy analysis and decision-curve analysis. Of the 965 patients, 383 (39.7%) were normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m(2) ), 440 (45.6%) were overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2) ) and 142 (14.7%) were obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2) ). Among obese patients, prostate cancer was found in 65 patients (45.8%), with a higher percentage of Gleason score ≥7 diseases (67.7%). PSA, p2PSA, %p2PSA and PHI were significantly higher, and %fPSA significantly lower in patients with prostate cancer (P < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression models, PHI significantly increased accuracy of the base multivariable model by 8.8% (P = 0.007). At a PHI threshold of 35.7, 46 (32.4%) biopsies could have been avoided. In obese patients, PHI is significantly more accurate than current tests in predicting prostate cancer. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

  4. Shop Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Bob

    Vocational agriculture teachers in Oklahoma prepared the shop project drawings which comprise the document. Seventy-one projects, with lists of required materials, diagrams, and measurements, are included. Construction projects fall into six categories (number of projects in parentheses): Trailers (5), racks (3), livestock production projects…

  5. Project management controls

    SciTech Connect

    Hardin, D.S. ); Carnes, W.S. )

    1990-01-01

    Project management controls are utilized to enhance the probability that a project will be successful. The control system used by a project manager can take many forms and can be applied at different times to varying degrees on a given project depending upon its complexity. The Consolidated Incineration Facility (CIF) is one project of many at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The United States Department of Energy Order 4700.1 is a project management system that is applied on a site-wide basis, thus including the CIF. The control system required by this order is proceduralized to ensure that it is applied in a consistent manner and will produce reliable results. These results provide the project manager with a correlation of both costs and schedule within the defined scope to adequately asses the status of the project. This is an iterative process and can be simply stated: plan, actual, variance, corrective action, prediction, and revision. This paper presents the basis for the project management controls applied at the Savannah River Site.

  6. Project management controls

    SciTech Connect

    Hardin, D.S.; Carnes, W.S.

    1990-12-31

    Project management controls are utilized to enhance the probability that a project will be successful. The control system used by a project manager can take many forms and can be applied at different times to varying degrees on a given project depending upon its complexity. The Consolidated Incineration Facility (CIF) is one project of many at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The United States Department of Energy Order 4700.1 is a project management system that is applied on a site-wide basis, thus including the CIF. The control system required by this order is proceduralized to ensure that it is applied in a consistent manner and will produce reliable results. These results provide the project manager with a correlation of both costs and schedule within the defined scope to adequately asses the status of the project. This is an iterative process and can be simply stated: plan, actual, variance, corrective action, prediction, and revision. This paper presents the basis for the project management controls applied at the Savannah River Site.

  7. VIPER project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kershaw, John

    1990-01-01

    The VIPER project has so far produced a formal specification of a 32 bit RISC microprocessor, an implementation of that chip in radiation-hard SOS technology, a partial proof of correctness of the implementation which is still being extended, and a large body of supporting software. The time has now come to consider what has been achieved and what directions should be pursued in the future. The most obvious lesson from the VIPER project was the time and effort needed to use formal methods properly. Most of the problems arose in the interfaces between different formalisms, e.g., between the (informal) English description and the HOL spec, between the block-level spec in HOL and the equivalent in ELLA needed by the low-level CAD tools. These interfaces need to be made rigorous or (better) eliminated. VIPER 1A (the latest chip) is designed to operate in pairs, to give protection against breakdowns in service as well as design faults. We have come to regard redundancy and formal design methods as complementary, the one to guard against normal component failures and the other to provide insurance against the risk of the common-cause failures which bedevil reliability predictions. Any future VIPER chips will certainly need improved performance to keep up with increasingly demanding applications. We have a prototype design (not yet specified formally) which includes 32 and 64 bit multiply, instruction pre-fetch, more efficient interface timing, and a new instruction to allow a quick response to peripheral requests. Work is under way to specify this device in MIRANDA, and then to refine the spec into a block-level design by top-down transformations. When the refinement is complete, a relatively simple proof checker should be able to demonstrate its correctness. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  8. Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Tait, A B; Pomroy, W E

    2017-08-30

    Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will

  9. Predicting cardiovascular intensive care unit readmission after cardiac surgery: derivation and validation of the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) cardiovascular intensive care unit clinical prediction model from a registry cohort of 10,799 surgical cases.

    PubMed

    van Diepen, Sean; Graham, Michelle M; Nagendran, Jayan; Norris, Colleen M

    2014-11-19

    In medical and surgical intensive care units, clinical risk prediction models for readmission have been developed; however, studies reporting the risks for cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) readmission have been methodologically limited by small numbers of outcomes, unreported measures of calibration or discrimination, or a lack of information spanning the entire perioperative period. The purpose of this study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction model for CVICU readmission in cardiac surgical patients. A total of 10,799 patients more than or equal to 18 years in the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) registry who underwent cardiac surgery (coronary artery bypass or valvular surgery) between 2004 and 2012 and were discharged alive from the first CVICU admission were included. The full cohort was used to derive the clinical prediction model and the model was internally validated with bootstrapping. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using the AUC c index and the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, respectively. A total of 479 (4.4%) patients required CVICU readmission. The mean CVICU length of stay (19.9 versus 3.3 days, P <0.001) and in-hospital mortality (14.4% versus 2.2%, P <0.001) were higher among patients readmitted to the CVICU. In the derivation cohort, a total of three preoperative (age ≥ 70, ejection fraction, chronic lung disease), two intraoperative (single valve repair or replacement plus non-CABG surgery, multivalve repair or replacement), and seven postoperative variables (cardiac arrest, pneumonia, pleural effusion, deep sternal wound infection, leg graft harvest site infection, gastrointestinal bleed, neurologic complications) were independently associated with CVICU readmission. The clinical prediction model had robust discrimination and calibration in the derivation cohort (AUC c index = 0.799; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.192). The validation point estimates and confidence

  10. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans potentially are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Many of these chemicals never have been tested for their ability to interact with the es...

  11. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans potentially are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Many of these chemicals never have been tested for their ability to interact with the es...

  12. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  13. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  14. Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  15. Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  16. Science project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-08-23

    DRIFTER sensor devices were designed by the Applied Science and Technology Project Office as inexpensive tools that can be used for science projects in local schools. The devices transmit information about water temperature and conductivity for use by Gulf Coast researchers. The DRIFTER project began as an effort to help Gulf Coast oyster fishermen dealing with the effects of fresh water intrusion.

  17. Map projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1993-01-01

    A map projection is used to portray all or part of the round Earth on a flat surface. This cannot be done without some distortion. Every projection has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. There is no "best" projection. The mapmaker must select the one best suited to the needs, reducing distortion of the most important features. Mapmakers and mathematicians have devised almost limitless ways to project the image of the globe onto paper. Scientists at the U. S. Geological Survey have designed projections for their specific needs—such as the Space Oblique Mercator, which allows mapping from satellites with little or no distortion. This document gives the key properties, characteristics, and preferred uses of many historically important projections and of those frequently used by mapmakers today.

  18. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  19. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  20. Graduate Student Project: Operations Management Product Plan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fish, Lynn

    2007-01-01

    An operations management product project is an effective instructional technique that fills a void in current operations management literature in product planning. More than 94.1% of 286 graduates favored the project as a learning tool, and results demonstrate the significant impact the project had in predicting student performance. The author…

  1. Graduate Student Project: Operations Management Product Plan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fish, Lynn

    2007-01-01

    An operations management product project is an effective instructional technique that fills a void in current operations management literature in product planning. More than 94.1% of 286 graduates favored the project as a learning tool, and results demonstrate the significant impact the project had in predicting student performance. The author…

  2. Super high-resolution mesoscale weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, K.; Tsuyuki, T.; Seko, H.; Kimura, F.; Tokioka, T.; Kuroda, T.; Duc, L.; Ito, K.; Oizumi, T.; Chen, G.; Ito, J.; the Spire Field 3 Mesoscale Nwp Group

    2013-08-01

    A five-year research project of high performance regional numerical weather prediction is underway as one of the five research fields of the Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE). The ultimate goal of the project is to demonstrate feasibility of precise prediction of severe weather phenomena using the K-computer. Three sub-themes of the project are shown with achievements at the present and developments in the near future.

  3. Predicting Hurricanes with Supercomputers

    SciTech Connect

    2010-01-01

    Hurricane Emily, formed in the Atlantic Ocean on July 10, 2005, was the strongest hurricane ever to form before August. By checking computer models against the actual path of the storm, researchers can improve hurricane prediction. In 2010, NOAA researchers were awarded 25 million processor-hours on Argonne's BlueGene/P supercomputer for the project. Read more at http://go.usa.gov/OLh

  4. Project SEED.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1986

    1986-01-01

    Reports on Project SEED (Summer Educational Experience for the Disadvantaged) a project in which high school students from low-income families work in summer jobs in a variety of academic, industrial, and government research labs. The program introduces the students to career possibilities in chemistry and to the advantages of higher education.…

  5. Project FAST.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Essexville-Hampton Public Schools, MI.

    Described are components of Project FAST (Functional Analysis Systems Training) a nationally validated project to provide more effective educational and support services to learning disordered children and their regular elementary classroom teachers. The program is seen to be based on a series of modules of delivery systems ranging from mainstream…

  6. Project HIRE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weisz, Vera C.

    Project HIRE is a special program conducted by Middlesex Community College since October 1978 to help people 55 years of age and older find paid employment. The specific goals of the project, as it was originally conceived, were to: (1) open three intake centers; (2) register clients at the centers; (3) provide career counseling; (4) offer…

  7. Project Success.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meredith, Larry D.

    Project Success consists of after-school, weekend, and summer educational programs geared toward minority and disadvantaged students to increase their numbers seeking postsecondary education from the Meadville, Pennsylvania area. The project is funded primarily through the Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, whose administration is committed to…

  8. Project CHILD.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robison, Helen F.; And Others

    This document described Project CHILD, a program of educational change and curriculum development for disadvantaged prekindergarten and kindergarten children. The historical part of this report indicates that the project began in 1966 with a small-scale study of teacher behavior and children's responses in a few classrooms in a Harlem school…

  9. Project REM.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Carol Hahn

    1983-01-01

    Project REM (Resources, Energy, Mankind) incorporates energy, ecology, and environmental topics into a sixth-grade science curriculum. Various activities of this year-long project are discussed, including those related to Mr. REM (a student-built "robot") and an all day exploration of energy held near the end of the school year. (JN)

  10. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-04-27

    Astronaut L. Gordon Cooper, Jr., one of the original seven astronauts for Mercury Project selected by NASA on April 27, 1959. The MA-9 mission, boosted by the Mercury-Atlas launch vehicle, was the last flight of the Mercury Project. The Faith 7 spacecraft orbited the Earth 22 times in 1-1/2 days.

  11. Project Success.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meredith, Larry D.

    Project Success consists of after-school, weekend, and summer educational programs geared toward minority and disadvantaged students to increase their numbers seeking postsecondary education from the Meadville, Pennsylvania area. The project is funded primarily through the Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, whose administration is committed to…

  12. UNESCO Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goutard, Madeleine

    1990-01-01

    Details of a UNESCO project concerning the young child and the family environment are presented. The three major aspects of child development addressed by the project are nutrition for the child, children's handicaps, and interaction between the child and its family. (BG)

  13. Project EASIER.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvord, David J.; Tack, Leland R.; Dallam, Jerald W.

    1998-01-01

    Describes the development of Project EASIER, a collaborative electronic-data interchange for networking Iowa local school districts, education agencies, community colleges, universities, and the Department of Education. The primary goal of this project is to develop and implement a system for collection of student information for state and federal…

  14. Projects Board

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of Engineering Education, 1971

    1971-01-01

    Members of the Projects Board and associated committees of the American Society for Engineering Education are listed along with the by-laws of the board. Active projects described include a study of engineering technological education, faculty interchange with black engineering colleges, and the visiting engineer program. (TS)

  15. Final project report

    SciTech Connect

    Nitin S. Baliga and Leroy Hood

    2008-11-12

    The proposed overarching goal for this project was the following: Data integration, simulation and visualization will facilitate metabolic and regulatory network prediction, exploration, and formulation of hypotheses. We stated three specific aims to achieve the overarching goal of this project: (1) Integration of multiple levels of information such as mRNA and protein levels, predicted protein-protein interactions/associations and gene function will enable construction of models describing environmental response and dynamic behavior. (2) Flexible tools for network inference will accelerate our understanding of biological systems. (3) Flexible exploration and queries of model hypotheses will provide focus and reveal novel dependencies. The underlying philosophy of these proposed aims is that an iterative cycle of experiments, experimental design, and verification will lead to a comprehensive and predictive model that will shed light on systems level mechanisms involved in responses elicited by living systems upon sensing a change in their environment. In the previous years report we demonstrated considerable progress in development of data standards, regulatory network inference and data visualization and exploration. We are pleased to report that several manuscripts describing these procedures have been published in top international peer reviewed journals including Genome Biology, PNAS, and Cell. The abstracts of these manuscripts are given and they summarize our accomplishments in this project.

  16. Watchdog Project

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Rhett; Campbell, Jack; Hadley, Mark

    2016-12-30

    The Watchdog Project completed 100% of the project Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The Watchdog project was a very aggressive project looking to accomplish commercialization of technology that had never been commercialized, as a result it took six years to complete not the original three that were planned. No additional federal funds were requested from the original proposal and SEL contributed the additional cost share required to complete the project. The result of the Watchdog Project is the world’s first industrial rated Software Defined Network (SDN) switch commercially available. This technology achieved the SOPOO and DOE Roadmap goals to have strong network access control, improve reliability and network performance, and give the asset owner the ability to minimize attack surface before and during an attack. The Watchdog project is an alliance between CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). SEL is the world’s leader in microprocessor-based electronic equipment for protecting electric power systems. PNNL performs basic and applied research to deliver energy, environmental, and national security for our nation. CenterPoint Energy is the third largest publicly traded natural gas delivery company in the U.S and third largest combined electricity and natural gas delivery company. The Watchdog Project efforts were combined with the SDN Project efforts to produce the entire SDN system solution for the critical infrastructure. The Watchdog project addresses Topic Area of Interest 5: Secure Communications, for the DEFOA- 0000359 by protecting the control system local area network itself and the communications coming from and going to the electronic devices on the local network. Local area networks usually are not routed and have little or no filtering capabilities. Combine this with the fact control system protocols are designed with inherent trust the control

  17. Methods of Predicting Solid Waste Characteristics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyd, Gail B.; Hawkins, Myron B.

    The project summarized by this report involved a preliminary design of a model for estimating and predicting the quantity and composition of solid waste and a determination of its feasibility. The novelty of the prediction model is that it estimates and predicts on the basis of knowledge of materials and quantities before they become a part of the…

  18. Climate Modeling and Prediction at NSIPP

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Max; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The talk will review modeling and prediction efforts undertaken as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus will be on atmospheric model results, including its use for experimental seasonal prediction and the diagnostic analysis of climate anomalies. The model's performance in coupled experiments with land and atmosphere models will also be discussed.

  19. Project LEAF

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project LEAF has a goal of educating farmworkers about how to reduce pesticide exposure to their families from pesticide residues they may be inadvertently taking home on their clothing, etc. Find outreach materials.

  20. Geodynamics Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drake, Charles L.

    1977-01-01

    Describes activities of Geodynamics Project of the Federal Council on Science and Technology, such as the application of multichannel seismic-reflection techniques to study the nature of the deep crust and upper mantle. (MLH)

  1. Geodynamics Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drake, Charles L.

    1977-01-01

    Describes activities of Geodynamics Project of the Federal Council on Science and Technology, such as the application of multichannel seismic-reflection techniques to study the nature of the deep crust and upper mantle. (MLH)

  2. Project Reptile!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diffily, Deborah

    2001-01-01

    Integrating curriculum is important in helping children make connections within and among areas. Presents a class project for kindergarten children which came out of the students' interests and desire to build a reptile exhibit. (ASK)

  3. Predictive Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scriven, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Noting that there has been extensive discussion of the relation of evaluation to: (1) research; (2) explanations (a.k.a. theory-driven, logic model, or realistic evaluation); and (3) recommendations, the author introduces: (4) prediction. He advocates that unlike the first three concepts, prediction is necessarily part of most kinds of evaluation,…

  4. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  5. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  6. Science project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-08-23

    Once tethered in place in Gulf Coast waters, a DRIFTER sensor device is able to transmit valuable information about water temperature and conductivity. The Applied Science and Technology Project Office at Stennis Space Center designed the DRIFTER as an inexpensive device that can be used for science projects in local schools. Two of the devices, deployed in coastal waters, survived Hurricane Isaac, continuing to transmit valuable data regarding the storm.

  7. Swedish Projects

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-12-01

    development, evaluate training regimes and design of new systems with complex man- machine interface problems. The project uses advanced statistical...physiological measures to provide input to adaptive man- machine interfaces . The goal of the projects is to further develop measurement methods with...dinteraction Homme -Système Intuitive)., The original document contains color images. 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17

  8. Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-30

    primary objectives of this project are: ( i ) explore the capabilities of a real-time ocean state- estimation and prediction system; (ii) to assess how...contributes to work in other funded projects. As part of the NOAA-funded Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) effort, I lead the ocean modeling effort...the Navy. During the current reporting period, we have completed the following tasks: i ) I have published a manuscript (Powell et al., 2012b) that

  9. Maximum Capital Project Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adams, Matt

    2002-01-01

    Describes the stages of capital project planning and development: (1) individual capital project submission; (2) capital project proposal assessment; (3) executive committee; and (4) capital project execution. (EV)

  10. Maximum Capital Project Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adams, Matt

    2002-01-01

    Describes the stages of capital project planning and development: (1) individual capital project submission; (2) capital project proposal assessment; (3) executive committee; and (4) capital project execution. (EV)

  11. Prediction & Assessment of Dermal Exposure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    cutaneous exposure requires the transdermal penetration of the chemical. The unique permeation barrier properties of skin ensure that the kinetics of...following dermal exposure, therefore, requires that the rate of skin penetration in man be predictable. The specific aims of the project were: (1) to...derive, from a compre- hensive database of the percutaneous absorption/ penetration literature predictive ("structure-activity") algorithms to calculate a

  12. Discussion of the design of satellite-laser measurement stations in the eastern Mediterranean under the geological aspect. Contribution to the earthquake prediction research by the Wegener Group and to NASA's Crustal Dynamics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paluska, A.; Pavoni, N.

    1983-01-01

    Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.

  13. Projection displays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiu, George L.; Yang, Kei H.

    1998-08-01

    Projection display in today's market is dominated by cathode ray tubes (CRTs). Further progress in this mature CRT projector technology will be slow and evolutionary. Liquid crystal based projection displays have gained rapid acceptance in the business market. New technologies are being developed on several fronts: (1) active matrix built from polysilicon or single crystal silicon; (2) electro- optic materials using ferroelectric liquid crystal, polymer dispersed liquid crystals or other liquid crystal modes, (3) micromechanical-based transducers such as digital micromirror devices, and grating light valves, (4) high resolution displays to SXGA and beyond, and (5) high brightness. This article reviews the projection displays from a transducer technology perspective along with a discussion of markets and trends.

  14. Project Artemis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Birchenough, Shawn; Kato, Denise; Kennedy, Fred; Akin, David

    1990-01-01

    The goals of Project Artemis are designed to meet the challege of President Bush to return to the Moon, this time to stay. The first goal of the project is to establish a permanent manned base on the Moon for the purposes of scientific research and technological development. The knowledge gained from the establishment and operations of the lunar base will then be used to achieve the second goal of Project Artemis, the establishment of a manned base on the Martian surface. Throughout both phases of the program, crew safety will be the number one priority. There are four main issues that have governed the entire program: crew safety and mission success, commonality, growth potential, and costing and scheduling. These issues are discussed in more detail.

  15. Costs of predicting IDDM.

    PubMed

    Hahl, J; Simell, T; Ilonen, J; Knip, M; Simell, O

    1998-01-01

    Programmes aiming at prediction and prevention of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM), a multifactorial autoimmune disease, have been launched or are in the planning phase in several countries. We hypothesized that the costs of finding the correct target subjects for preventive interventions are likely to vary markedly according to the prediction strategy chosen. Average direct costs accruing in the Finnish IDDM Prediction and Prevention Project (DIPP) were analysed from the health care provider's viewpoint. The genetically targeted strategy included costs of assessing genetic IDDM susceptibility followed by measurement of marker(s) of islet autoimmunity in the susceptibility restricted population at 3 to 6-month intervals. In the pure immunological strategy markers of autoimmunity were repeatedly analysed in the entire population. The data were finally exposed to sensitivity analysis. The genetically targeted prediction strategy is cost-saving in the first year if autoimmune markers are analysed as frequently as under the DIPP project, and in all circumstances later. The 10-year direct costs per child are US$ 245 (present value $ 217, 5% discount rate) if the genetically targeted approach is used and $ 733 (present value $ 619) if the pure immunological strategy is chosen. In sensitivity analysis the 10-year costs (present value) per child of the genetically targeted strategy and of the pure immunological strategy varied from $ 152 to $ 241 and from $ 430 to $ 788, respectively. The genetically targeted IDDM prediction strategy is remarkably cost-saving as compared with the pure immunological strategy mainly because fewer subjects will need retesting during the follow-up.

  16. Cloudnet Project

    DOE Data Explorer

    Hogan, Robin

    2008-01-15

    Cloudnet is a research project supported by the European Commission. This project aims to use data obtained quasi-continuously for the development and implementation of cloud remote sensing synergy algorithms. The use of active instruments (lidar and radar) results in detailed vertical profiles of important cloud parameters which cannot be derived from current satellite sensing techniques. A network of three already existing cloud remote sensing stations (CRS-stations) will be operated for a two year period, activities will be co-ordinated, data formats harmonised and analysis of the data performed to evaluate the representation of clouds in four major european weather forecast models.

  17. Apollo Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1965-01-01

    Langley personnel at Cape Canaveral during preliminary checkout of Project FIRE velocity package before launch. Project FIRE (Flight Investigation Reentry Environment) studied the effects of reentry heating on spacecraft materials. It involved both wind tunnel and flight tests, although the majority were tests with Atlas rockets and recoverable reentry packages. These flight tests took place at Cape Canaveral in Florida. Wind tunnel tests were made in several Langley tunnels including the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, the 8-foot High-Temperature Tunnel and the 9- x 6-Foot Thermal Structures Tunnel.

  18. LLAMA Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, E. M.; Abraham, Z.; Giménez de Castro, G.; de Gouveia dal Pino, E. M.; Larrarte, J. J.; Lepine, J.; Morras, R.; Viramonte, J.

    2014-10-01

    The project LLAMA, acronym of Long Latin American Millimetre Array is very briefly described in this paper. This project is a joint scientific and technological undertaking of Argentina and Brazil on the basis of an equal investment share, whose mail goal is both to install and to operate an observing facility capable of exploring the Universe at millimetre and sub/millimetre wavelengths. This facility will be erected in the argentinean province of Salta, in a site located at 4830m above sea level.

  19. Spent Nuclear Fuel project, project management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Fuquay, B.J.

    1995-10-25

    The Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel Project has been established to safely store spent nuclear fuel at the Hanford Site. This Project Management Plan sets forth the management basis for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project. The plan applies to all fabrication and construction projects, operation of the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project facilities, and necessary engineering and management functions within the scope of the project

  20. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  1. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  2. Project Notes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Listed are 32 biology A-level projects, categorized by organisms studied as follows: algae (1), bryophytes (1), angiosperms (14), fungi (1), flatworms (1), annelids (2), molluscs (1), crustaceans (2), insects (4), fish (2), mammals (1), humans (1); and one synecological study. (CS)

  3. Limnological Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hambler, David J.; Dixon, Jean M.

    1982-01-01

    Describes collection of quantitative samples of microorganisms and accumulation of physical data from a pond over a year. Provides examples of how final-year degree students have used materials and data for ecological projects (involving mainly algae), including their results/conclusions. Also describes apparatus and reagents used in the student…

  4. Project Reconstruct.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helisek, Harriet; Pratt, Donald

    1994-01-01

    Presents a project in which students monitor their use of trash, input and analyze information via a database and computerized graphs, and "reconstruct" extinct or endangered animals from recyclable materials. The activity was done with second-grade students over a period of three to four weeks. (PR)

  5. Project Narrative

    SciTech Connect

    Driscoll, Mary C.

    2012-07-12

    The Project Narrative describes how the funds from the DOE grant were used to purchase equipment for the biology, chemistry, physics and mathematics departments. The Narrative also describes how the equipment is being used. There is also a list of the positive outcomes as a result of having the equipment that was purchased with the DOE grant.

  6. Project Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Listed and described are student A-level biology projects in the following areas: Angiosperm studies (e.g., factors affecting growth of various plants), 7; Bacterial studies, 1; Insect studies, 2; Fish studies, 1; Mammal studies, 1; Human studies, 1; Synecology studies, 2; Environmental studies, 2; and Enzyme studies, 1. (CS)

  7. Project Reconstruct.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helisek, Harriet; Pratt, Donald

    1994-01-01

    Presents a project in which students monitor their use of trash, input and analyze information via a database and computerized graphs, and "reconstruct" extinct or endangered animals from recyclable materials. The activity was done with second-grade students over a period of three to four weeks. (PR)

  8. Project CAST.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles County Board of Education, La Plata, MD. Office of Special Education.

    The document outlines procedures for implementing Project CAST (Community and School Together), a community-based career education program for secondary special education students in Charles County, Maryland. Initial sections discuss the role of a learning coordinator, (including relevant travel reimbursement and mileage forms) and an overview of…

  9. Project Choice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, MO.

    Project Choice was begun with the goal of increasing the number of inner-city students who graduate on time. Ewing M. Kauffman and his business and foundation associates designed and elected to test a model that used the promise of postsecondary education or training as the incentive to stay in school. This report details the evolution of Project…

  10. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-09-01

    An Atlas launch vehicle carrying the Big Joe capsule leaves its launching pad on a 2,000-mile ballistic flight to the altitude of 100 miles. The Big Joe capsule is a boilerplate model of the marned orbital capsule under NASA's Project Mercury. The capsule was recovered and studied for the effect of re-entry heat and other flight stresses.

  11. Thanksgiving Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilden, Pauline

    1976-01-01

    A teacher describes a Thanksgiving project in which 40 educable mentally retarded students (6-13 years old) made and served their own dinner of stew, butter, bread, ice cream, and pie, and in the process learned about social studies, cooking, and proper meal behavior. (CL)

  12. Limnological Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hambler, David J.; Dixon, Jean M.

    1982-01-01

    Describes collection of quantitative samples of microorganisms and accumulation of physical data from a pond over a year. Provides examples of how final-year degree students have used materials and data for ecological projects (involving mainly algae), including their results/conclusions. Also describes apparatus and reagents used in the student…

  13. Project Notes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Listed are 32 biology A-level projects, categorized by organisms studied as follows: algae (1), bryophytes (1), angiosperms (14), fungi (1), flatworms (1), annelids (2), molluscs (1), crustaceans (2), insects (4), fish (2), mammals (1), humans (1); and one synecological study. (CS)

  14. Hydrosphere Project.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This final report summarizes the seven foot Hydrosphere Project. During the course of this program, three Interim Reports were submitted. Interim...to the final assembly of the seven foot Hydrosphere . This final report includes a brief outline of each of the above noted Interim Reports, as well as

  15. Project Boomerang

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Allen L.

    1975-01-01

    Describes an experimental project on boomerangs designed for an undergraduate course in classical mechanics. The students designed and made their own boomerangs, devised their own procedures, and carried out suitable measurements. Presents some of their data and a simple analysis for the two-bladed boomerang. (Author/MLH)

  16. Project Schoolflight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Owen, Ben

    1975-01-01

    Describes "Project School Flight" which is an idea originated by the Experimental Aircraft Association to provide the opportunity for young people to construct a light aircraft in the schools as part of a normal class. Address included of Experimental Aircraft Association for interested persons. (BR)

  17. Thanksgiving Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilden, Pauline

    1976-01-01

    A teacher describes a Thanksgiving project in which 40 educable mentally retarded students (6-13 years old) made and served their own dinner of stew, butter, bread, ice cream, and pie, and in the process learned about social studies, cooking, and proper meal behavior. (CL)

  18. Project CLASS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBain, Susan L.; And Others

    Project CLASS (Competency-Based Live-Ability Skills) uses a series of 60 modules to teach life survival skills to adults with low-level reading ability--especially Adult Basic Education/English as a Second Language students. Two versions of the modules have been developed: one for use with teacher-directed instruction and another for independent…

  19. Project Succeed.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patterson, John

    Project Succeed is a program for helping failure- and dropout-oriented pupils to improve their school achievement. Attendance and assignment completion are the key behaviors for enhancing achievement. Behavior modification and communications procedures are used to bring about the desired changes. Treatment procedures include current assessment…

  20. Project ENRICH.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gwaley, Elizabeth; And Others

    Project ENRICH was conceived in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, to: (1) identify preschool children with learning disabilities, and (2) to develop a program geared to the remediation of the learning disabilities within a school year, while allowing the child to be enrolled in a regular class situation for the following school year. Through…

  1. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-04-27

    The group portrait of the original seven astronauts for the Mercury Project. NASA selected its first seven astronauts on April 27, 1959. Left to right at front: Walter M. Wally Schirra, Donald K. Deke Slayton, John H. Glenn, Jr., and Scott Carpenter. Left to right at rear: Alan B. Shepard, Virgil I. Gus Grissom, and L. Gordon Cooper, Jr.

  2. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1963-05-16

    The recovery operation of the Faith 7 spacecraft after the completion of the 1-1/2 day orbital flight (MA-9 mission) with Astronaut Gordon Cooper. Navy frogmen attach the flotation collar to the spacecraft. The MA-9 mission was the last flight of the Mercury Project and launched on May 15, 1963 boosted by The Mercury-Atlas launch vehicle.

  3. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1963-09-09

    Astronaut Alan B. Shepard, one of the original seven astronauts for Mercury Project selected by NASA on April 27, 1959. The Freedom 7 spacecraft boosted by Mercury-Redstone vehicle for the MR-3 mission made the first marned suborbital flight and Astronaut Shepard became the first American in space.

  4. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1963-05-16

    Astronaut Gordon Cooper leaves the Faith 7 (MA-9) spacecraft after a successful recovery operation. The MA-9 mission, the last flight of the Mercury Project, was launched on May 15, 1963, orbited the Earth 22 times, and lasted for 1-1/2 days.

  5. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1963-05-15

    Astronaut Gordon Cooper leaves the Faith 7 (MA-9) spacecraft after a successful recovery operation. The MA-9 mission, the last flight of the Mercury Project, was launched on May 15, 1963, orbited the Earth 22 times, and lasted for 1-1/2 days.

  6. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-04-27

    Astronaut Walter M. "Wally" Schirra, one of the original seven astronauts for Mercury Project selected by NASA on April 27, 1959. The MA-8 (Mercury-Atlas) mission with Sigma 7 spacecraft was the third marned orbital flight by the United States, and made the six orbits in 9-1/4 hours.

  7. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-04-27

    Astronaut Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom, one of the original seven astronauts for Mercury Project selected by NASA on April 27, 1959. The MR-4 mission, boosted by the Mercury-Redstone vehicle, made the second marned suborbital flight. The capsule, Liberty Bell 7, sank into the sea after the splashdown.

  8. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-04-27

    Astronaut John H. Glenn, one of the original seven astronauts for Mercury Project selected by NASA on April 27, 1959. The MA-6 mission, boosted by the Mercury-Atlas vehicle, was the first manned orbital launch by the United States, and carried Astronaut Glenn aboard the Friendship 7 spacecraft to orbit the Earth.

  9. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2004-04-15

    The original seven astronauts for the Mercury Project pose in front of an Air Force Jet. From left to right: Scott Carpenter, L. Gordon Cooper, John H. Glenn, Virgil I. Gus Grissom, Walter M. Wally Schirra, Alan B. Shepard, and Donald K. Deke Slayton.

  10. Project COLD.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kazanjian, Wendy C.

    1982-01-01

    Describes Project COLD (Climate, Ocean, Land, Discovery) a scientific study of the Polar Regions, a collection of 35 modules used within the framework of existing subjects: oceanography, biology, geology, meterology, geography, social science. Includes a partial list of topics and one activity (geodesic dome) from a module. (Author/SK)

  11. Project Documerica

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of College Science Teaching, 1972

    1972-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has started a project to actually picture the environmental movement in the United States. This is an attempt to make the public aware of the air pollution in their area or state and to acquaint them with the effects of air cleaning efforts. (PS)

  12. Project Paiute

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dearmin, Evalyn Titus

    1977-01-01

    Working with the Humboldt County School District, the Fort McDermitt Indian Education Committee, and four Paiute Teacher aides, the University of Nevada developed a three-component project: a bilingual/bicultural reading text for K-4 Paiutes; an in-service training program in Native American education; and a pilot bilingual curriculum. (JC)

  13. Passport Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Worthey, Glen; Bourgoin, Stella, Ed.

    This project introduces second-grade students to international studies by having them create a passport. Once the students have their passports, the teacher can then present lessons to small groups, discussing one foreign country per session. The teacher should begin with a traditional lecture giving pertinent facts about a country followed by…

  14. Project Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Science Review, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Listed and described are student A-level biology projects in the following areas: Angiosperm studies (e.g., factors affecting growth of various plants), 7; Bacterial studies, 1; Insect studies, 2; Fish studies, 1; Mammal studies, 1; Human studies, 1; Synecology studies, 2; Environmental studies, 2; and Enzyme studies, 1. (CS)

  15. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    SciTech Connect

    King, Bruce Hardison; Hansen, Clifford; Stein, Joshua

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  16. SDN Project

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Rhett

    2016-12-23

    The SDN Project completed on time and on budget and successfully accomplished 100% of the scope of work outlined in the original Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The SDN Project formed an alliance between Ameren Corporation, University of Illinois Urbana- Champaign (UIUC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). The objective of the SDN Project is to address Topic Area of Interest 2: Sustain critical energy delivery functions while responding to a cyber-intrusion under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000797. The goal of the project is to design and commercially release technology that provides a method to sustain critical energy delivery functions during a cyber intrusion and to do this control system operators need the ability to quickly identify and isolate the affected network areas, and re-route critical information and control flows around. The objective of the SDN Project is to develop a Flow Controller that monitors, configures, and maintains the safe, reliable network traffic flows of all the local area networks (LANs) on a control system in the Energy sector. The SDN team identified the core attributes of a control system and produced an SDN flow controller that has the same core attributes enabling networks to be designed, configured and deployed that maximize the whitelisted, deny-bydefault and purpose built networks. This project researched, developed and commercially released technology that: Enables all field networks be to configured and monitored as if they are a single asset to be protected; Enables greatly improved and even precalculated response actions to reliability and cyber events; Supports pre-configured localized response actions tailored to provide resilience against failures and centralized response to cyber-attacks that improve network reliability and availability; Architecturally enables the right subject matter experts, who are usually the information

  17. Effect of boundary conditions on the strength and deformability of replicas of natural fractures in welded tuff: Comparison between predicted and observed shear behavior using a graphical method; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Wibowo, J.; Amadei, B.; Sture, S.; Robertson, A.B.; Price, R.H.

    1993-09-01

    Four series of cyclic direct-shear experiments were conducted on several replicas of three natural fractures and a laboratory-developed tensile fracture of welded tuff from Yucca Mountain to test the graphical load-displacement analysis method proposed by Saeb (1989) and Amadei and Saeb (1990). Based on the results of shear tests conducted on several joint replicas under different levels of constant normal load ranging between 0.6 and 25.6 kips (2.7 and 113.9 kN), the shear behavior of joint replicas under constant normal stiffness ranging between 14.8 and 187.5 kips/in. (25.9 and 328.1 kN/cm) was predicted by using the graphical method. The predictions were compared to the results of actual shear tests conducted for the same range of constant normal stiffness. In general, a good agreement was found between the predicted and the observed shear behavior.

  18. Reliability Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    RELAV, a NASA-developed computer program, enables Systems Control Technology, Inc. (SCT) to predict performance of aircraft subsystems. RELAV provides a system level evaluation of a technology. Systems, the mechanism of a landing gear for example, are first described as a set of components performing a specific function. RELAV analyzes the total system and the individual subsystem probabilities to predict success probability, and reliability. This information is then translated into operational support and maintenance requirements. SCT provides research and development services in support of government contracts.

  19. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  20. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  1. A Course in... Model Predictive Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arkun, Yaman; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Describes a graduate engineering course which specializes in model predictive control. Lists course outline and scope. Discusses some specific topics and teaching methods. Suggests final projects for the students. (MVL)

  2. A Course in... Model Predictive Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arkun, Yaman; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Describes a graduate engineering course which specializes in model predictive control. Lists course outline and scope. Discusses some specific topics and teaching methods. Suggests final projects for the students. (MVL)

  3. Predictive dynamic digital holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulaiman, Sennan; Gibson, Steve; Spencer, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high energy laser systems and high speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing to optimize some sharpness criteria. This paper demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches developed recently at UCLA for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum variance wavefront prediction into digital holography schemes to short-circuit the computationally intensive algorithms for iterative propagation of virtual wavefronts and hill climbing for sharpness optimization.

  4. NDLGS project update

    SciTech Connect

    Lienert, Thomas J; Sutton, Jacob O; Piltch, Martin S; Lujan, Dennis J

    2011-01-14

    Recent results for laser and ESD processing for the NDLGS project will be reviewed. Conclusions are: (1) Short mix passes have profound effect on window T; (2) Multiple drill and re-weld at single location has been shown to be feasible and successful; (3) Kapton beam profiling method has been successfully developed. Comparison of 100 mm and 120 mm lenses gives reasonable and consistent results; (4) Manifold pumpdown data has been presented; (5) ESO results can be accurately predicted once a repeatable efficiency has been established; and (6) The electrode-workpiece geometry may play an important on ESO efficiency. Experiments are planned to investigate these effects.

  5. Successful Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2012-12-01

    In an observational science, it is not possible to test hypotheses through controlled laboratory experiments. One can test parts of the system in the lab (as is done routinely with infrared spectroscopy of greenhouse gases), but the collective behavior cannot be tested experimentally because a star or planet cannot be brought into the lab; it must, instead, itself be the lab. In the case of anthropogenic global warming, this is all too literally true, and the experiment would be quite exciting if it weren't for the unsettling fact that we and all our descendents for the forseeable future will have to continue making our home in the lab. There are nonetheless many routes though which the validity of a theory of the collective behavior can be determined. A convincing explanation must not be a"just-so" story, but must make additional predictions that can be verified against observations that were not originally used in formulating the theory. The field of Earth and planetary climate has racked up an impressive number of such predictions. I will also admit as "predictions" statements about things that happened in the past, provided that observations or proxies pinning down the past climate state were not available at the time the prediction was made. The basic prediction that burning of fossil fuels would lead to an increase of atmospheric CO2, and that this would in turn alter the Earth's energy balance so as to cause tropospheric warming, is one of the great successes of climate science. It began in the lineage of Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius, and was largely complete with the the radiative-convective modeling work of Manabe in the 1960's -- all well before the expected warming had progressed far enough to be observable. Similarly, long before the increase in atmospheric CO2 could be detected, Bolin formulated a carbon cycle model and used it to predict atmospheric CO2 out to the year 2000; the actual values come in at the high end of his predicted range, for

  6. Cognitive Education Project. Summary Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulcahy, Robert; And Others

    The Cognitive Education Project conducted a 3-year longitudinal evaluation of two cognitive education programs that were aimed at teaching thinking skills. The critical difference between the two experimental programs was that one, Feuerstein's Instrumental Enrichment (IE) method, was taught out of curricular content, while the other, the…

  7. ENSO predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah Michelle

    The overarching goal of this work is to explore seasonal El Nino -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. More specifically, this work investigates how intrinsic variability affects ENSO predictability using a state-of-the-art climate model. Topics related to the effects of systematic model errors and external forcing are not included in this study. Intrinsic variability encompasses a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales, from high frequency small-scale noise-driven processes including coupled instabilities to low frequency large-scale deterministic climate modes. The former exemplifies what can be considered intrinsic "noise" in the climate system that hinders predictability by promoting rapid error growth whereas the latter often provides the slow thermal ocean inertia that supplies the coupled ENSO system with predictability. These two ends of the spectrum essentially provide the lower and upper bounds of ENSO predictability that can be attributed to internal variability. The effects of noise-driven coupled instabilities on sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the ENSO region is quantified by utilizing a novel coupled model methodology paired with an ensemble approach. The experimental design allows for rapid growth of intrinsic perturbations that are not prescribed. Several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO-like final states that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Results challenge conventional ENSO theory that considers the subsurface precursor as a necessary condition for ENSO. Noise-driven SST error growth exhibits strong seasonality and dependence on the initialization month. A dynamical analysis reveals that much of the error growth behavior is linked to the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback in the model, indicating that the noise-induced perturbations grow via an ENSO-like mechanism. The daily error fields reveal that persistent

  8. Dropout Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Jonathan; And Others

    Secondary school students who drop out of school are put at great social and economic disadvantage. If potential dropouts can be identified early, prevention may be possible. To construct a prediction model which, through readily available school information, will aid in the identification of students likely to drop out, schools in the Austin,…

  9. Modeling external risks in project management.

    PubMed

    Palomo, Jesus; Rios Insua, David; Ruggeri, Fabrizio

    2007-08-01

    To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.

  10. Project Prometheus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Steve

    2003-01-01

    Project Prometheus will enable a new paradigm in the scientific exploration of the Solar System. The proposed JIMO mission will start a new generation of missions characterized by more maneuverability, flexibility, power and lifetime. Project Prometheus organization is established at NASA Headquarters: 1.Organization established to carry out development of JIMO, nuclear power (radioisotope), and nuclear propulsion research. 2.Completed broad technology and national capacity assessments to inform decision making on planning and technology development. 3.Awarded five NRA s for nuclear propulsion research. 4.Radioisotope power systems in development, and Plutonium-238 being purchased from Russia. 5.Formulated science driven near-term and long-term plan for the safe utilization of nuclear propulsion based missions. 6.Completed preliminary studies (Pre-Phase A) of JIMO and other missions. 7.Initiated JIMO Phase A studies by Contractors and NASA.

  11. Hydropower Projects

    SciTech Connect

    2015-04-02

    The Water Power Program helps industry harness this renewable, emissions-free resource to generate environmentally sustainable and cost-effective electricity. Through support for public, private, and nonprofit efforts, the Water Power Program promotes the development, demonstration, and deployment of advanced hydropower devices and pumped storage hydropower applications. These technologies help capture energy stored by diversionary structures, increase the efficiency of hydroelectric generation, and use excess grid energy to replenish storage reserves for use during periods of peak electricity demand. In addition, the Water Power Program works to assess the potential extractable energy from domestic water resources to assist industry and government in planning for our nation’s energy future. From FY 2008 to FY 2014, DOE’s Water Power Program announced awards totaling approximately $62.5 million to 33 projects focused on hydropower. Table 1 provides a brief description of these projects.

  12. SIMBIOS Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRAI) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

  13. Mercury Project

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-01-01

    Dr. Wernher von Braun, Director of the Army Ballistic Missile Agency's (ABMA) Development Operations Division, poses with the original Mercury astronauts in ABMA's Fabrication Laboratory during a 1959 visit. Inspecting Mercury-Redstone hardware are from left to right, Alan Shepard, Donald Deke Slayton, Virgil Gus Grissom, von Braun, Gordon Cooper, Wally Schirra, John Glenn, and Scott Carpenter. Project Mercury officially began October 7, 1958 as the United States' first manned space program.

  14. Project MEDSAT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    During the winter term of 1991, two design courses at the University of Michigan worked on a joint project, MEDSAT. The two design teams consisted of the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Spacite System Design and Aerospace Engineering 483 (Aero 483) Aerospace System Design. In collaboration, they worked to produce MEDSAT, a satellite and scientific payload whose purpose was to monitor environmental conditions over Chiapas, Mexico. Information gained from the sensing, combined with regional data, would be used to determine the potential for malaria occurrence in that area. The responsibilities of AOSS 605 consisted of determining the remote sensing techniques, the data processing, and the method to translate the information into a usable output. Aero 483 developed the satellite configuration and the subsystems required for the satellite to accomplish its task. The MEDSAT project is an outgrowth of work already being accomplished by NASA's Biospheric and Disease Monitoring Program and Ames Research Center. NASA's work has been to develop remote sensing techniques to determine the abundance of disease carriers and now this project will place the techniques aboard a satellite. MEDSAT will be unique in its use of both a Synthetic Aperture Radar and visual/IR sensor to obtain comprehensive monitoring of the site. In order to create a highly feasible system, low cost was a high priority. To obtain this goal, a light satellite configuration launched by the Pegasus launch vehicle was used.

  15. Project MEDSAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    During the winter term of 1991, two design courses at the University of Michigan worked on a joint project, MEDSAT. The two design teams consisted of the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Spacite System Design and Aerospace Engineering 483 (Aero 483) Aerospace System Design. In collaboration, they worked to produce MEDSAT, a satellite and scientific payload whose purpose was to monitor environmental conditions over Chiapas, Mexico. Information gained from the sensing, combined with regional data, would be used to determine the potential for malaria occurrence in that area. The responsibilities of AOSS 605 consisted of determining the remote sensing techniques, the data processing, and the method to translate the information into a usable output. Aero 483 developed the satellite configuration and the subsystems required for the satellite to accomplish its task. The MEDSAT project is an outgrowth of work already being accomplished by NASA's Biospheric and Disease Monitoring Program and Ames Research Center. NASA's work has been to develop remote sensing techniques to determine the abundance of disease carriers and now this project will place the techniques aboard a satellite. MEDSAT will be unique in its use of both a Synthetic Aperture Radar and visual/IR sensor to obtain comprehensive monitoring of the site. In order to create a highly feasible system, low cost was a high priority. To obtain this goal, a light satellite configuration launched by the Pegasus launch vehicle was used.

  16. Ceramic Technology Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-03-01

    The Ceramic Technology Project was developed by the USDOE Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the USDOE and NASA advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. These programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. A five-year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. In July 1990 the original plan was updated through the estimated completion of development in 1993. The objective is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on the structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic bearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines. To facilitate the rapid transfer of this technology to US industry, the major portion of the work is being done in the ceramic industry, with technological support from government laboratories, other industrial laboratories, and universities.

  17. Base-age invariance and inventory projections

    Treesearch

    C. J. Cieszewski; R. L. Bailey; B. E. Borders; G. H. Brister; B. D. Shiver

    2000-01-01

    One of the most important functions of forest inventory is to facilitate management decisions towards forest sustainability based on inventory projections into the future. Therefore, most forest inventories are used for predicting future states of the forests, in modern forestry the most common methods used in inventory projections are based on implicit functions...

  18. Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

    PubMed

    Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2017-10-05

    Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

  19. Windshear Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    Windshear microbursts and extreme air turbulence caused by sudden intense changes in wind direction or speed are difficult to detect and thus dangerous to air traffic. They have been positively identified as the cause of 28 aviation accidents that claimed 491 lives. Many groups are investigating ways to detect and predict windshear. The Federal Aviation Consulting Services, Ltd. (FACS) is applying artificial intelligence to windshear prediction. FACS' artificial intelligence based airline dispatcher program is intended as a backup not a replacement for human dispatcher. It would incorporate the same data that a human would request to make a decision and then draw a conclusion using the same rules of logic as the human expert.

  20. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  1. A mathematical model for predicting the probability of acute mortality in a human population exposed to accidentally released airborne radionuclides. Final report for Phase I of the project: early effects of inhaled radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Filipy, R.E.; Borst, F.J.; Cross, F.T.; Park, J.F.; Moss, O.R.

    1980-06-01

    The report presents a mathematical model for the purpose of predicting the fraction of human population which would die within 1 year of an accidental exposure to airborne radionuclides. The model is based on data from laboratory experiments with rats, dogs and baboons, and from human epidemiological data. Doses from external, whole-body irradiation and from inhaled, alpha- and beta-emitting radionuclides are calculated for several organs. The probabilities of death from radiation pneumonitis and from bone marrow irradiation are predicted from doses accumulated within 30 days of exposure to the radioactive aerosol. The model is compared with existing similar models under hypothetical exposure conditions. Suggestions for further experiments with inhaled radionuclides are included.

  2. Project Exodus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Project Exodus is an in-depth study to identify and address the basic problems of a manned mission to Mars. The most important problems concern propulsion, life support, structure, trajectory, and finance. Exodus will employ a passenger ship, cargo ship, and landing craft for the journey to Mars. These three major components of the mission design are discussed separately. Within each component the design characteristics of structures, trajectory, and propulsion are addressed. The design characteristics of life support are mentioned only in those sections requiring it.

  3. Surfactant EOR project evaluated

    SciTech Connect

    Holm, L.W.

    1984-07-16

    The Union Oil Co.'s Uniflood process has successfully mobilized and produced tertiary oil from a micellar-polymer pilot project on the Hegberg lease in the El Dorado field, Kansas. This half-completed EOR flood has recovered over 11% of the waterflood residual oil and is currently producing at an oil cut of 10%. Oil recovery has been limited by (1) the presence of gypsum in portions of the reservoir which adversly affects injected chemicals, (2) poor quality reservoir rock in one quadrant of the pilot, and (3) a substantial fluid drift (30 ft/year) which causes a portion of the injected chemicals to flow out of the pilot pattern. The El Dorado demonstration project is a joint experiment covered by a cost-sharing contract between the U.S. Department of Energy and Cities Service Company. It was proposed as a micellar-polymer process in a highly saline (10 wt % salts) reservoir that had been waterflooded to residual oil. Despite the extended project life, and indications that total recovery efficiency will be less than originally predicted, oil response in the Hegberg pattern is encouraging for application of the micellar-polymer process in high brine reservoirs.

  4. Selection of test methods to be included in a testing strategy to predict acute oral toxicity: an approach based on statistical analysis of data collected in phase 1 of the ACuteTox project.

    PubMed

    Kinsner-Ovaskainen, A; Prieto, P; Stanzel, S; Kopp-Schneider, A

    2013-06-01

    More than 50 different in vitro and in silico methods assessing specific organ- and system-toxicity, such as haemato-, neuro-, nephro- and hepatotoxicity, as well as intestinal absorption, distribution and metabolism, have been used in the first phase of the ACuteTox project to test a common set of 57 chemicals. This paper describes the methods used for statistical evaluation of concentration-response data collected for each of the endpoint assays, and for the development of a testing strategy applicable for acute toxicity classification of chemicals based on the achieved results of the concentration-response analysis. A final list of in vitro test methods considered to be promising candidates for building blocks of the testing strategy is presented. Only these selected test methods were further investigated in the prevalidation phase of the project. The test methods were chosen according to their reproducibility and reliability and most importantly, according to their potential to classify chemicals into the official acute oral toxicity categories of the EU Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) Regulation. The potential of the test methods to correctly classify the chemicals was assessed by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Project Exodus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bryant, Rodney (Compiler); Dillon, Jennifer (Compiler); Grewe, George (Compiler); Mcmorrow, Jim (Compiler); Melton, Craig (Compiler); Rainey, Gerald (Compiler); Rinko, John (Compiler); Singh, David (Compiler); Yen, Tzu-Liang (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    A design for a manned Mars mission, PROJECT EXODUS is presented. PROJECT EXODUS incorporates the design of a hypersonic waverider, cargo ship and NIMF (nuclear rocket using indigenous Martian fuel) shuttle lander to safely carry out a three to five month mission on the surface of Mars. The cargo ship transports return fuel, return engine, surface life support, NIMF shuttle, and the Mars base to low Mars orbit (LMO). The cargo ship is powered by a nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system which allows the cargo ship to execute a spiral trajectory to Mars. The waverider transports ten astronauts to Mars and back. It is launched from the Space Station with propulsion provided by a chemical engine and a delta velocity of 9 km/sec. The waverider performs an aero-gravity assist maneuver through the atmosphere of Venus to obtain a deflection angle and increase in delta velocity. Once the waverider and cargo ship have docked the astronauts will detach the landing cargo capsules and nuclear electric power plant and remotely pilot them to the surface. They will then descend to the surface aboard the NIMF shuttle. A dome base will be quickly constructed on the surface and the astronauts will conduct an exploratory mission for three to five months. They will return to Earth and dock with the Space Station using the waverider.

  6. Project Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dannenberg, K. K.; Henderson, A.; Lee, J.; Smith, G.; Stluka, E.

    1984-01-01

    PROJECT EXPLORER is a program that will fly student-developed experiments onboard the Space Shuttle in NASA's Get-Away Special (GAS) containers. The program is co-sponsored by the Alabama Space and Rocket Center, the Alabama-Mississippi Section of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Alabama A&M University and requires extensive support by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. A unique feature of this project will demonstrate transmissions to ground stations on amateur radio frequencies in English language. Experiments Nos. 1, 2, and 3 use the microgravity of space flight to study the solidification of lead-antimony and aluminum-copper alloys, the growth of potassium-tetracyanoplatinate hydrate crystals in an aqueous solution, and the germination of radish seeds. Flight results will be compared with Earth-based data. Experiment No. 4 features radio transmission and will also provide timing for the start of all other experiments. A microprocessor will obtain real-time data from all experiments as well as temperature and pressure measurements taken inside the canister. These data will be transmitted on previously announced amateur radio frequencies after they have been converted into the English language by a digitalker for general reception.

  7. Project Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dannenberg, K. K.; Henderson, A.; Lee, J.; Smith, G.; Stluka, E.

    1984-01-01

    PROJECT EXPLORER is a program that will fly student-developed experiments onboard the Space Shuttle in NASA's Get-Away Special (GAS) containers. The program is co-sponsored by the Alabama Space and Rocket Center, the Alabama-Mississippi Section of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Alabama A&M University and requires extensive support by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. A unique feature of this project will demonstrate transmissions to ground stations on amateur radio frequencies in English language. Experiments Nos. 1, 2, and 3 use the microgravity of space flight to study the solidification of lead-antimony and aluminum-copper alloys, the growth of potassium-tetracyanoplatinate hydrate crystals in an aqueous solution, and the germination of radish seeds. Flight results will be compared with Earth-based data. Experiment No. 4 features radio transmission and will also provide timing for the start of all other experiments. A microprocessor will obtain real-time data from all experiments as well as temperature and pressure measurements taken inside the canister. These data will be transmitted on previously announced amateur radio frequencies after they have been converted into the English language by a digitalker for general reception.

  8. SIMBIOS Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project. The SIMBIOS Science Team Principal Investigators' (PIs) original contributions to this report are in chapters four and above. The purpose of these contributions is to describe the current research status of the SIMBIOS-NRA-96 funded research. The contributions are published as submitted, with the exception of minor edits to correct obvious grammatical or clerical errors.

  9. PORTNUS Project

    SciTech Connect

    Loyal, Rebecca E.

    2015-07-14

    The objective of the Portunus Project is to create large, automated offshore ports that will the pace and scale of international trade. Additionally, these ports would increase the number of U.S. domestic trade vessels needed, as the imported goods would need to be transported from these offshore platforms to land-based ports such as Boston, Los Angeles, and Newark. Currently, domestic trade in the United States can only be conducted by vessels that abide by the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 – also referred to as the Jones Act. The Jones Act stipulates that vessels involved in domestic trade must be U.S. owned, U.S. built, and manned by a crew made up of U.S. citizens. The Portunus Project would increase the number of Jones Act vessels needed, which raises an interesting economic concern. Are Jones Act ships more expensive to operate than foreign vessels? Would it be more economically efficient to modify the Jones Act and allow vessels manned by foreign crews to engage in U.S. domestic trade? While opposition to altering the Jones Act is strong, it is important to consider the possibility that ship-owners who employ foreign crews will lobby for the chance to enter a growing domestic trade market. Their success would mean potential job loss for thousands of Americans currently employed in maritime trade.

  10. NORCAL Project: Phase I. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacMillan, Thomas F.

    Phase I of Northern California Cooperative Research Project on Student Withdrawals (NORCAL) examined withdrawal and continuing students in 23 colleges, evaluated the data, predicted potential withdrawals, and summarized findings. A questionnaire was used to help develop a model to predict attrition within the first term of enrollment. The junior…

  11. Projecting a Stand Table Through Time

    Treesearch

    Quang V. Cao; V. Clark Baldwin

    1999-01-01

    Stand tables provide number of trees per acre for each diameter class. This paper presents a general technique to predict a future stand table, based on the current stand table and future stand summary statistics such as trees and basal area per acre, and average diameter. The stand projection technique involves (a) predicting surviving trees for each class, and (b)...

  12. SISCAL project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, Richard P.; Fell, Frank

    2003-05-01

    The first "ocean colour" sensor, Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), was launched in 1978. Oceanographers learnt a lot from CZCS but it remained a purely scientific sensor. In recent years, a new generation of satellite-borne earth observation (EO) instruments has been brought into space. These instruments combine high spectral and spatial resolution with revisiting rates of the order of one per day. More instruments with further increased spatial, spectral and temporal resolution will be available within the next years. In the meantime, evaluation procedures taking advantage of the capabilities of the new instruments were derived, allowing the retrieval of ecologically important parameters with higher accuracy than before. Space agencies are now able to collect and to process satellite data in real time and to disseminate them via the Internet. It is therefore meanwhile possible to envisage using EO operationally. In principle, a significant demand for EO data products on terrestrial or marine ecosystems exists both with public authorities (environmental protection, emergency management, natural resources management, national parks, regional planning, etc) and private companies (tourist industry, insurance companies, water suppliers, etc). However, for a number of reasons, many data products that can be derived from the new instruments and methods have not yet left the scientific community towards public or private end users. It is the intention of the proposed SISCAL (Satellite-based Information System on Coastal Areas and Lakes) project to contribute to the closure of the existing gap between space agencies and research institutions on one side and end users on the other side. To do so, we intend to create a data processor that automatically derives and subsequently delivers over the Internet, in Near-Real-Time (NRT), a number of data products tailored to individual end user needs. The data products will be generated using a Geographical Information System (GIS

  13. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  14. Word prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Rumelhart, D.E.; Skokowski, P.G.; Martin, B.O.

    1995-05-01

    In this project we have developed a language model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for use in conjunction with automatic textual search or speech recognition systems. The model can be trained on large corpora of text to produce probability estimates that would improve the ability of systems to identify words in a sentence given partial contextual information. The model uses a gradient-descent learning procedure to develop a metric of similarity among terms in a corpus, based on context. Using lexical categories based on this metric, a network can then be trained to do serial word probability estimation. Such a metric can also be used to improve the performance of topic-based search by allowing retrieval of information that is related to desired topics even if no obvious set of key words unites all the retrieved items.

  15. Evaluating Prediction Markets for Internal Control Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-01

    0 1. Introduction Since the beginning of prediction market research , various applications have been discussed . From the predictions of political...While the use 2 of corporate prediction markets for research purposes tends to lack transparency and reproducibility, the experi ment was...Econontic Research 1.60 Lecturer #3 Responsible Project Management 0.67 Lecturer #5 Macroeconomics 2. 14 Lecturer #6 Market and State 2.59

  16. Theoretical predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brasseur, G.; Boville, B. A.; Bruhl, C.; Caldwell, M.; Connell, Peter S.; Derudder, A.; Douglas, A.; Dyominov, I.; Fisher, D.; Frederick, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

  17. Past Project Expo Sites

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page provides information for Project Expo sites that were featured at the LMOP Conferences in 2013 and 2014. Project Expo sites were featured as being interested in identifying project partners for the development of an LFG energy project.

  18. Project Grandmaster

    SciTech Connect

    2013-09-16

    The purpose of the Project Grandmaster Application is to allow individuals to opt-in and give the application access to data sources about their activities on social media sites. The application will cross-reference these data sources to build up a picture of each individual activities they discuss, either at present or in the past, and place this picture in reference to groups of all participants. The goal is to allow an individual to place themselves in the collective and to understand how their behavior patterns fit with the group and potentially find changes to make, such as activities they weren’t already aware of or different groups of interest they might want to follow.

  19. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  20. Project Success in Agile Development Software Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farlik, John T.

    2016-01-01

    Project success has multiple definitions in the scholarly literature. Research has shown that some scholars and practitioners define project success as the completion of a project within schedule and within budget. Others consider a successful project as one in which the customer is satisfied with the product. This quantitative study was conducted…

  1. Ace Project as a Project Management Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Melinda; Guynes, Carl S.; Simard, Karine

    2010-01-01

    The primary challenge of project management is to achieve the project goals and objectives while adhering to project constraints--usually scope, quality, time and budget. The secondary challenge is to optimize the allocation and integration of resources necessary to meet pre-defined objectives. Project management software provides an active…

  2. Project Success in Agile Development Software Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farlik, John T.

    2016-01-01

    Project success has multiple definitions in the scholarly literature. Research has shown that some scholars and practitioners define project success as the completion of a project within schedule and within budget. Others consider a successful project as one in which the customer is satisfied with the product. This quantitative study was conducted…

  3. Project Information Packages Kit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    RMC Research Corp., Mountain View, CA.

    Presented are an overview booklet, a project selection guide, and six Project Information Packages (PIPs) for six exemplary projects serving underachieving students in grades k through 9. The overview booklet outlines the PIP projects and includes a chart of major project features. A project selection guide reviews the PIP history, PIP contents,…

  4. A Game Theoretic Approach to Cyber Attack Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Peng Liu

    2005-11-28

    The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers. The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security.

  5. Predicting fertility.

    PubMed

    Maheshwari, Abha; Bhattacharya, Siladitya; Johnson, Neil P

    2008-06-01

    Various predictors of fertility have been described, suggesting that none are ideal. The literature on tests of ovarian reserve is largely limited to women undergoing in vitro fertilization, and is reliant on the use of surrogate markers, such as cycle cancellation and number of oocytes retrieved, as reference standards. Currently available prediction models are far from ideal; most are applicable only to subfertile women seeking assisted reproduction, and lack external validation. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of predictors of fertility are limited by their heterogeneity in terms of the population sampled, predictors tested and reference standards used. There is an urgent need for consensus in the design of these studies, definition of abnormal tests, and, above all, a need to use robust outcomes such as live birth as the reference standard. There are no reliable predictors of fertility that can guide women as to how long childbearing can be deferred.

  6. Solar prediction and intelligent machines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Gordon G.

    1987-01-01

    The solar prediction program is aimed at reducing or eliminating the need to throughly understand the process previously developed and to still be able to produce a prediction. Substantial progress was made in identifying the procedures to be coded as well as testing some of the presently coded work. Another project involves work on developing ideas and software that should result in a machine capable of learning as well as carrying on an intelligent conversation over a wide range of topics. The underlying idea is to use primitive ideas and construct higher order ideas from these, which can then be easily related one to another.

  7. Project LASER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    NASA formally launched Project LASER (Learning About Science, Engineering and Research) in March 1990, a program designed to help teachers improve science and mathematics education and to provide 'hands on' experiences. It featured the first LASER Mobile Teacher Resource Center (MTRC), is designed to reach educators all over the nation. NASA hopes to operate several MTRCs with funds provided by private industry. The mobile unit is a 22-ton tractor-trailer stocked with NASA educational publications and outfitted with six work stations. Each work station, which can accommodate two teachers at a time, has a computer providing access to NASA Spacelink. Each also has video recorders and photocopy/photographic equipment for the teacher's use. MTRC is only one of the five major elements within LASER. The others are: a Space Technology Course, to promote integration of space science studies with traditional courses; the Volunteer Databank, in which NASA employees are encouraged to volunteer as tutors, instructors, etc; Mobile Discovery Laboratories that will carry simple laboratory equipment and computers to provide hands-on activities for students and demonstrations of classroom activities for teachers; and the Public Library Science Program which will present library based science and math programs.

  8. Prediction and Prevention of Frostbite

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    sequelae of hand frostbite were present in 63 %. Prediction of frostbite: Individual risk factors of frostbite (95 % CI) are Raynaud’s phenomenon , (OR...before military service by e.g. a questionnaire assessing Raynaud’s phenomenon , hand vibration and current smoking enables to identify personnel that are...NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND

  9. CUBES Project Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Kenneth T., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    CUBES stands for Creating Understanding and Broadening Education through Satellites. The goal of the project is to allow high school students to build a small satellite, or CubeSat. Merritt Island High School (MIHS) was selected to partner with NASA, and California Polytechnic State University (Cal-Poly}, to build a CubeSat. The objective of the mission is to collect flight data to better characterize maximum predicted environments inside the CubeSat launcher, Poly-Picosatellite Orbital Deplorer (P-POD), while attached to the launch vehicle. The MIHS CubeSat team will apply to the NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative, which provides opportunities for small satellite development teams to secure launch slots on upcoming expendable launch vehicle missions. The MIHS team is working to achieve a test launch, or proof of concept flight aboard a suborbital launch vehicle in early 2013.

  10. Radar-aeolian roughness project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, Ronald; Dobrovolskis, A.; Gaddis, L.; Iversen, J. D.; Lancaster, N.; Leach, Rodman N.; Rasnussen, K.; Saunders, S.; Vanzyl, J.; Wall, S.

    1991-01-01

    The objective is to establish an empirical relationship between measurements of radar, aeolian, and surface roughness on a variety of natural surfaces and to understand the underlying physical causes. This relationship will form the basis for developing a predictive equation to derive aeolian roughness from radar backscatter. Results are given from investigations carried out in 1989 on the principal elements of the project, with separate sections on field studies, radar data analysis, laboratory simulations, and development of theory for planetary applications.

  11. Role of body mass index in the prediction of all cause mortality in over 62,000 men and women. The Italian RIFLE Pooling Project. Risk Factor and Life Expectancy

    PubMed Central

    Seccareccia, F.; Lanti, M.; Menotti, A.; Scanga, M.

    1998-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation of body mass index (BMI) to short-term mortality in a large Italian population sample. DESIGN: Within the Italian RIFLE pooling project, BMI was measured in 47 population samples made of 32,741 men and 30,305 women ages 20-69 years (young 20-44, mature 45-69). Data on mortality were collected for the next six years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age adjusted death rates in quintile classes of BMI and Cox proportional hazards models with six year all causes mortality as end point, BMI as covariate and age, smoking, systolic blood pressure as possible confounders were computed. Multivariate analysis was tested in all subjects and after the exclusion of smokers, early (first two years) deaths, and both categories. RESULTS: The univariate analysis failed to demonstrate in all cases a U or inverse J shaped relation. The Cox coefficients for the linear and quadratic terms of BMI proved significant for both young and mature women. The minimum of the curve was located at 27.0 (24.0, 30.0, 95% confidence limits, CL) and 31.8 (25.5, 38.2, 95% CL) units of BMI, for young and mature women respectively. Similar findings were obtained even when exclusion were performed. No relation was found for young men while for mature adult men only the model for all subjects retained significant curvilinear relation (minimum 29.3; 22.4, 36.2, 95% CL). CONCLUSION: These uncommon high values of BMI carrying the minimum risk of death seems to be in contrast with weight guidelines. A confirmation of these findings in other population groups might induce the consideration of changes in the suggested healthy values of BMI.   PMID:9604037

  12. RESOLVE Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Ray; Coan, Mary; Cryderman, Kate; Captain, Janine

    2013-01-01

    The RESOLVE project is a lunar prospecting mission whose primary goal is to characterize water and other volatiles in lunar regolith. The Lunar Advanced Volatiles Analysis (LAVA) subsystem is comprised of a fluid subsystem that transports flow to the gas chromatograph - mass spectrometer (GC-MS) instruments that characterize volatiles and the Water Droplet Demonstration (WDD) that will capture and display water condensation in the gas stream. The LAVA Engineering Test Unit (ETU) is undergoing risk reduction testing this summer and fall within a vacuum chamber to understand and characterize component and integrated system performance. Testing of line heaters, printed circuit heaters, pressure transducers, temperature sensors, regulators, and valves in atmospheric and vacuum environments was done. Test procedures were developed to guide experimental tests and test reports to analyze and draw conclusions from the data. In addition, knowledge and experience was gained with preparing a vacuum chamber with fluid and electrical connections. Further testing will include integrated testing of the fluid subsystem with the gas supply system, near-infrared spectrometer, WDD, Sample Delivery System, and GC-MS in the vacuum chamber. This testing will provide hands-on exposure to a flight forward spaceflight subsystem, the processes associated with testing equipment in a vacuum chamber, and experience working in a laboratory setting. Examples of specific analysis conducted include: pneumatic analysis to calculate the WDD's efficiency at extracting water vapor from the gas stream to form condensation; thermal analysis of the conduction and radiation along a line connecting two thermal masses; and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) heater control analysis. Since LAVA is a scientific subsystem, the near-infrared spectrometer and GC-MS instruments will be tested during the ETU testing phase.

  13. Collaborative Physical Chemistry Projects Involving Computational Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whisnant, David M.; Howe, Jerry J.; Lever, Lisa S.

    2000-02-01

    The physical chemistry classes from three colleges have collaborated on two computational chemistry projects using Quantum CAChe 3.0 and Gaussian 94W running on Pentium II PCs. Online communication by email and the World Wide Web was an important part of the collaboration. In the first project, students used molecular modeling to predict benzene derivatives that might be possible hair dyes. They used PM3 and ZINDO calculations to predict the electronic spectra of the molecules and tested the predicted spectra by comparing some with experimental measurements. They also did literature searches for real hair dyes and possible health effects. In the final phase of the project they proposed a synthetic pathway for one compound. In the second project the students were asked to predict which isomer of a small carbon cluster (C3, C4, or C5) was responsible for a series of IR lines observed in the spectrum of a carbon star. After preliminary PM3 calculations, they used ab initio calculations at the HF/6-31G(d) and MP2/6-31G(d) level to model the molecules and predict their vibrational frequencies and rotational constants. A comparison of the predictions with the experimental spectra suggested that the linear isomer of the C5 molecule was responsible for the lines.

  14. Project summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    California Polytechnic State University's design project for the 1990-91 school year was the design of a close air support aircraft. There were eight design groups that participated and were given requests for proposals. These proposals contained mission specifications, particular performance and payload requirements, as well as the main design drivers. The mission specifications called for a single pilot weighing 225 lb with equipment. The design mission profile consisted of the following: (1) warm-up, taxi, take off, and accelerate to cruise speed; (2) dash at sea level at 500 knots to a point 250 nmi from take off; (3) combat phase, requiring two combat passes at 450 knots that each consist of a 360 deg turn and an energy increase of 4000 ft. - at each pass, half of air-to-surface ordnance is released; (4) dash at sea level at 500 knots 250 nmi back to base; and (5) land with 20 min of reserve fuel. The request for proposal also specified the following performance requirements with 50 percent internal fuel and standard stores: (1) the aircraft must be able to accelerate from Mach 0.3 to 0.5 at sea level in less than 20 sec; (2) required turn rates are 4.5 sustained g at 450 knots at sea level; (3) the aircraft must have a reattack time of 25 sec or less (reattack time was defined as the time between the first and second weapon drops); (4) the aircraft is allowed a maximum take off and landing ground roll of 2000 ft. The payload requirements were 20 Mk 82 general-purpose free-fall bombs and racks; 1 GAU-8A 30-mm cannon with 1350 rounds; and 2 AIM-9L Sidewinder missiles and racks. The main design drivers expressed in the request for proposal were that the aircraft should be survivable and maintainable. It must be able to operate in remote areas with little or no maintenance. Simplicity was considered the most important factor in achieving the former goal. In addition, the aircraft must be low cost both in acquisition and operation. The summaries of the aircraft

  15. RESOLVE Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Ray O.

    2012-01-01

    The RESOLVE project is a lunar prospecting mission whose primary goal is to characterize water and other volatiles in lunar regolith. The Lunar Advanced Volatiles Analysis (LAVA) subsystem is comprised of a fluid subsystem that transports flow to the gas chromatograph- mass spectrometer (GC-MS) instruments that characterize volatiles and the Water Droplet Demonstration (WDD) that will capture and display water condensation in the gas stream. The LAVA Engineering Test Unit (ETU) is undergoing risk reduction testing this summer and fall within a vacuum chamber to understand and characterize C!Jmponent and integrated system performance. Ray will be assisting with component testing of line heaters, printed circuit heaters, pressure transducers, temperature sensors, regulators, and valves in atmospheric and vacuum environments. He will be developing procedures to guide these tests and test reports to analyze and draw conclusions from the data. In addition, he will gain experience with preparing a vacuum chamber with fluid and electrical connections. Further testing will include integrated testing of the fluid subsystem with the gas supply system, near-infrared spectrometer, WDD, Sample Delivery System, and GC-MS in the vacuum chamber. This testing will provide hands-on exposure to a flight forward spaceflight subsystem, the processes associated with testing equipment in a vacuum chamber, and experience working in a laboratory setting. Examples of specific analysis Ray will conduct include: pneumatic analysis to calculate the WOO's efficiency at extracting water vapor from the gas stream to form condensation; thermal analysis of the conduction and radiation along a line connecting two thermal masses; and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) heater control analysis. In this Research and Technology environment, Ray will be asked to problem solve real-time as issues arise. Since LAVA is a scientific subsystem, Ray will be utilizing his chemical engineering background to

  16. The Clinical Schools Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    San Francisco State Univ., CA. Dept. of Elementary Education.

    This description of the Clinical Schools Project (a partnership which includes San Francisco State University, San Francisco Unified School District, and United Educators of San Francisco, California) contains a project description, three papers, and a proposal for establishing the project. The project description outlines the project, defines a…

  17. Practical lessons from protein structure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Ginalski, Krzysztof; Grishin, Nick V.; Godzik, Adam; Rychlewski, Leszek

    2005-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to develop automated protein structure determination protocols, structural genomics projects are slow in generating fold assignments for complete proteomes, and spatial structures remain unknown for many protein families. Alternative cheap and fast methods to assign folds using prediction algorithms continue to provide valuable structural information for many proteins. The development of high-quality prediction methods has been boosted in the last years by objective community-wide assessment experiments. This paper gives an overview of the currently available practical approaches to protein structure prediction capable of generating accurate fold assignment. Recent advances in assessment of the prediction quality are also discussed. PMID:15805122

  18. Fracture Toughness Prediction for MWCNT Reinforced Ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Henager, Charles H.; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development of a micromechanics model to predict fracture toughness of multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) reinforced ceramic composites to guide future experimental work for this project. The modeling work described in this report includes (i) prediction of elastic properties, (ii) development of a mechanistic damage model accounting for matrix cracking to predict the composite nonlinear stress/strain response to tensile loading to failure, and (iii) application of this damage model in a modified boundary layer (MBL) analysis using ABAQUS to predict fracture toughness and crack resistance behavior (R-curves) for ceramic materials containing MWCNTs at various volume fractions.

  19. Storm Surge Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morss, R. E.; Fossell, K.; Ahijevych, D.; Davis, C. A.; Snyder, C.

    2016-12-01

    strength as the track varies. In addition to providing a better understanding of storm surge predictability, results from this study will also be connected to an agent-based model of human response to an impending storm threat as part of a larger project focusing on understanding and improving communication of hurricane risks.

  20. Geothermal Reservoir Technology Research Program: Abstracts of selected research projects

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, M.J.

    1993-03-01

    Research projects are described in the following areas: geothermal exploration, mapping reservoir properties and reservoir monitoring, and well testing, simulation, and predicting reservoir performance. The objectives, technical approach, and project status of each project are presented. The background, research results, and future plans for each project are discussed. The names, addresses, and telephone and telefax numbers are given for the DOE program manager and the principal investigators. (MHR)

  1. Managing Projects for Change: Contextualised Project Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tynan, Belinda; Adlington, Rachael; Stewart, Cherry; Vale, Deborah; Sims, Rod; Shanahan, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This paper will detail three projects which focussed on enhancing online learning at a large Australian distance education University within a School of Business, School of Health and School of Education. Each project had special funding and took quite distinctive project management approaches, which reflect the desire to embed innovation and…

  2. Project Panama: An International Service Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aydlett, Lydia; Randolph, Mickey; Wells, Gayle

    2010-01-01

    Participation in service learning projects is a growing phenomenon at universities and colleges. Research indicates service projects are beneficial for college students and adults. There is little data investigating developmental differences in how younger versus older participants perceive the service learning process. In this project, older…

  3. The Materials Genome Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aourag, H.

    2008-09-01

    In the past, the search for new and improved materials was characterized mostly by the use of empirical, trial- and-error methods. This picture of materials science has been changing as the knowledge and understanding of fundamental processes governing a material's properties and performance (namely, composition, structure, history, and environment) have increased. In a number of cases, it is now possible to predict a material's properties before it has even been manufactured thus greatly reducing the time spent on testing and development. The objective of modern materials science is to tailor a material (starting with its chemical composition, constituent phases, and microstructure) in order to obtain a desired set of properties suitable for a given application. In the short term, the traditional "empirical" methods for developing new materials will be complemented to a greater degree by theoretical predictions. In some areas, computer simulation is already used by industry to weed out costly or improbable synthesis routes. Can novel materials with optimized properties be designed by computers? Advances in modelling methods at the atomic level coupled with rapid increases in computer capabilities over the last decade have led scientists to answer this question with a resounding "yes'. The ability to design new materials from quantum mechanical principles with computers is currently one of the fastest growing and most exciting areas of theoretical research in the world. The methods allow scientists to evaluate and prescreen new materials "in silico" (in vitro), rather than through time consuming experimentation. The Materials Genome Project is to pursue the theory of large scale modeling as well as powerful methods to construct new materials, with optimized properties. Indeed, it is the intimate synergy between our ability to predict accurately from quantum theory how atoms can be assembled to form new materials and our capacity to synthesize novel materials atom

  4. Predictable earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  5. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

    PubMed Central

    Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2016-01-01

    We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

  6. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections.

    PubMed

    Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-12-01

    We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

  7. Optimal Prediction of Clocks from Finite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhall, Charles A.

    2005-01-01

    This talk is about optimal linear prediction of processes with stationary dth increments, which serve as a class of models for random clock disturbances. The predictor is obtained by orthogonal projection on the affine space of estimators whose errors are invariant to additive polynomials of degree < d. The projection conditions give a system of linear equations thatcan be solved straightforwardly for the regression coefficients. If the data are equally spaced, then the predictor can be obtained by an extension of Levinson's algorithm.

  8. Elementary School Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Learning By Design, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Highlights elementary school construction projects that have won the Learning By Design Awards for 2001. Projects covered involve new school construction; and renovation, additions, and restoration. (GR)

  9. Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belanger, J. I.; Webster, P. J.; Hoyos, C. H.; Curry, J. A.; Agudelo, P. A.

    2008-12-01

    The predictability of tropical cyclones using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) is demonstrated with 3 severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean and 1 supertyphoon from the northwest Pacific, which include: Gonu, Sidr, and Man-Yi from 2007 and Nargis from 2008. While TC genesis forecasts are assumed to have little skill beyond 48 hours, we show that these projections can provide considerable lead-time with the ECMWF ensembles on average, correctly projecting the date of genesis and location of TC formation 5.5 days in advance. In addition, the ECMWF EPS shows considerable skill in track forecasts for both timing and location of movement especially in the 7 to 10 day range for all four tropical cyclones. While TC intensity forecasts are generally underestimated - attributed to the reduced resolution in the ECMWF ensembles - these intensity projections, especially for large tropical cyclones, can provide several days of additional lead-time that is not currently provided. This extra lead-time is vitally important in countries where coastal evacuations and disaster preparations are particularly slow. The potential forecasting benefits using the ECMWF EPS for tropical cyclones is reviewed in conjunction with a separate presentation in how this information can be used to mitigate disaster risk for countries in coastal areas of the Northern Indian Ocean.

  10. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    PubMed Central

    Shipp, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by

  11. The 1986-87 atomic mass predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haustein, P. E.

    1987-12-01

    A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conference (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Möller and Nix; Möller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jänecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.

  12. Prediction of Gas Lubricated Foil Journal Bearing Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpino, Marc; Talmage, Gita

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes the progress in the first eight months of the project. The objectives of this research project are to theoretically predict the steady operating conditions and the rotor dynamic coefficients of gas foil journal bearings. The project is currently on or ahead of schedule with the development of a finite element code that predicts steady bearing performance characteristics such as film thickness, pressure, load, and drag. Graphical results for a typical bearing are presented in the report. Project plans for the next year are discussed.

  13. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kevin D. Deane, MD/PhD...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...preclinical period of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development that is characterized by abnormalities of the immune system prior to the onset of the

  14. Global Predictability and Prediction Skill of Atmospheric Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of horizontal water vapor transport in the midlatitudes and can intensify downstream precipitation and influence flooding, snowpack and water availability. Consequently, there is significant incentive to estimate the predictability and quantify our prediction skill of AR events in operational forecast models, especially weeks to months in advance. Understanding and exploiting the full extent of AR predictability is vital for watershed and hazard preparation and water resource management in areas that are sensitive to heavy precipitation events often associated with ARs. Though the predictability limits and prediction skill of AR-related quantities such as precipitation and integrated vapor transport have recently been quantified for very limited regional areas, a systematic assessment of AR events themselves (with explicit consideration of AR geometries/intensities) using contemporary operational forecast models on a global scale has not yet been made. In this study, we create new objective skill metrics for AR events and quantify predictability limits and prediction skill of ARs in two decades of AR hindcasts from several operational models at lead times ranging from 1 day to 1 month. Our methodology is performed globally, but also allows for regional investigation of observed AR events of interest. We also examine the sensitivity of these skill estimates to large scale modes of climate variability (e.g. the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in an effort to leverage higher skill conditioned upon particular phases of these modes. This study contributes to the overarching goals of the international WMO Subseasonal to Seasonal Project by utilizing operational forecast and hindcast experiments with an emphasis on subseasonal forecasting applications.

  15. Project Lodestar Special Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Peggy, Ed.

    1981-01-01

    The Association of American Colleges' (AAC) Project Lodestar is addressed in an article and descriptions of the pilot phase of the project at 13 institutions. In "Project Lodestar: Realistically Assessing the Future," Peggy Brown provides an overview of the project, which is designed to help colleges and universities in assessment of…

  16. Earth System Science Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutherford, Sandra; Coffman, Margaret

    2004-01-01

    For several decades, science teachers have used bottles for classroom projects designed to teach students about biology. Bottle projects do not have to just focus on biology, however. These projects can also be used to engage students in Earth science topics. This article describes the Earth System Science Project, which was adapted and developed…

  17. eProject Builder

    SciTech Connect

    2014-06-01

    eProject Builder enables Energy Services Companies (ESCOs) and their contracting agencies to: 1. upload and track project-level Information 2. generate basic project reports required by local, state, and/or federal agencies 3. benchmark new Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) projects against historical data

  18. Project Lodestar Special Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Peggy, Ed.

    1981-01-01

    The Association of American Colleges' (AAC) Project Lodestar is addressed in an article and descriptions of the pilot phase of the project at 13 institutions. In "Project Lodestar: Realistically Assessing the Future," Peggy Brown provides an overview of the project, which is designed to help colleges and universities in assessment of…

  19. NCMS ESS 2000 Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gibbel, Mark; Bellamy, Marvin; DeSantis, Charlie; Hess, John; Pattok, Tracy; Quintero, Andrew; Silver, R.

    1996-01-01

    ESS 2000 has the vision of enhancing the knowledge necessary to implement cost-effective, leading-edge ESS technologies and procedures in order to increase U.S. electronics industry competitiveness. This paper defines EES and discusses the factors driving the project, the objectives of the project, its participants, the three phases of the project, the technologies involved, and project deliverables.

  20. Earth System Science Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutherford, Sandra; Coffman, Margaret

    2004-01-01

    For several decades, science teachers have used bottles for classroom projects designed to teach students about biology. Bottle projects do not have to just focus on biology, however. These projects can also be used to engage students in Earth science topics. This article describes the Earth System Science Project, which was adapted and developed…

  1. Determinants of project success

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, D. C.; Baker, B. N.; Fisher, D.

    1974-01-01

    The interactions of numerous project characteristics, with particular reference to project performance, were studied. Determinants of success are identified along with the accompanying implications for client organization, parent organization, project organization, and future research. Variables are selected which are found to have the greatest impact on project outcome, and the methodology and analytic techniques to be employed in identification of those variables are discussed.

  2. eProject Builder

    SciTech Connect

    2014-06-01

    eProject Builder enables Energy Services Companies (ESCOs) and their contracting agencies to: 1. upload and track project-level Information 2. generate basic project reports required by local, state, and/or federal agencies 3. benchmark new Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) projects against historical data

  3. Project Follow Through.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Springfield. Dept. for Exceptional Children.

    The four Follow Through projects in Illinois are described and evaluated. These projects involve approximately 1,450 children in K-3 in Mounds, East Saint Louis, Waukegan, and Chicago. The Chicago project is subdivided into three individual projects and is trying three experimental programs. Emphasis is given to the nature of the environmental…

  4. Korea's School Grounds Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Joohun

    2003-01-01

    This article describes two projects which Korea has undertaken to improve its school grounds: (1) the Green School Project; and (2) the School Forest Pilot Project. The Korean Ministry of Education and Human Resources Development (MOE&HRI) recently launched the Green School Project centred on existing urban schools with poor outdoor…

  5. Project Follow Through.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Springfield. Dept. for Exceptional Children.

    The four Follow Through projects in Illinois are described and evaluated. These projects involve approximately 1,450 children in K-3 in Mounds, East Saint Louis, Waukegan, and Chicago. The Chicago project is subdivided into three individual projects and is trying three experimental programs. Emphasis is given to the nature of the environmental…

  6. NCMS ESS 2000 Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gibbel, Mark; Bellamy, Marvin; DeSantis, Charlie; Hess, John; Pattok, Tracy; Quintero, Andrew; Silver, R.

    1996-01-01

    ESS 2000 has the vision of enhancing the knowledge necessary to implement cost-effective, leading-edge ESS technologies and procedures in order to increase U.S. electronics industry competitiveness. This paper defines EES and discusses the factors driving the project, the objectives of the project, its participants, the three phases of the project, the technologies involved, and project deliverables.

  7. Korea's School Grounds Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Joohun

    2003-01-01

    This article describes two projects which Korea has undertaken to improve its school grounds: (1) the Green School Project; and (2) the School Forest Pilot Project. The Korean Ministry of Education and Human Resources Development (MOE&HRI) recently launched the Green School Project centred on existing urban schools with poor outdoor…

  8. Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?

    SciTech Connect

    Dannevik, W P; Rotman, D A

    2005-11-14

    This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a prognostic equation for ensemble-mean two-point correlations, bypassing the detailed weather calculation. This work will expand our basic understanding of the theoretical limits of climate prediction and stimulate new experiments to perform with conventional climate models. It will furnish statistical estimates that are inaccessible with conventional climate simulations and likely will raise important new questions about the very nature of climate change and about how (and whether) climate change can be predicted. Solid progress on such issues is vital to the credibility of the science base for climate change research and will provide policymakers evaluating tradeoffs among energy technology options and their attendant environmental and economic consequences.

  9. Socio-Economic Status and Occupational Status Projections of Southern Youth, By Race and Sex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lever, Michael F.; Kuvlesky, William P.

    The purpose of this study was to examine selected occupational status projections and the relationship between these projections and socioeconomic status (SES). Occupational status projections referred to predictive statements about the future lifetime job of the respondents. The occupational status projections included in the analysis were: (1)…

  10. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guangsheng; Dai, Ning; Yang, Jianqing; Wang, Jinxing

    2016-10-01

    Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i) comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii) annual water resources assessment, and (iii) industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP) has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  11. Guidelines for Project Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ben-Arieh, David

    2001-01-01

    Project management is an important part of the professional activities at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Project management is the means by which many of the operations at KSC take shape. Moreover, projects at KSC are implemented in a variety of ways in different organizations. The official guidelines for project management are provided by NASA headquarters and are quite general. The project reported herein deals with developing practical and detailed project management guidelines in support of the project managers. This report summarizes the current project management effort in the Process Management Division and presents a new modeling approach of project management developed by the author. The report also presents the Project Management Guidelines developed during the summer.

  12. Regulatory Processes Necessary to Commercialize A Seizure Prediction Technology: Promises and Pitfalls of Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study);

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    system incorporating algorithms for processing biosignals to predict/detect seizures. 1. Introduction The successful operation of medical device...Commercialize A Seizure Prediction Technology Promises and Pitfalls of Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study); Auke Poutsma... Biosignal Analysis: Seizure Prediction and Management (A case study); Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Project Number

  13. Fusion Simulation Project Workshop Report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kritz, Arnold; Keyes, David

    2009-03-01

    The mission of the Fusion Simulation Project is to develop a predictive capability for the integrated modeling of magnetically confined plasmas. This FSP report adds to the previous activities that defined an approach to integrated modeling in magnetic fusion. These previous activities included a Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee panel that was charged to study integrated simulation in 2002. The report of that panel [Journal of Fusion Energy 20, 135 (2001)] recommended the prompt initiation of a Fusion Simulation Project. In 2003, the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences formed a steering committee that developed a project vision, roadmap, and governance concepts [Journal of Fusion Energy 23, 1 (2004)]. The current FSP planning effort involved 46 physicists, applied mathematicians and computer scientists, from 21 institutions, formed into four panels and a coordinating committee. These panels were constituted to consider: Status of Physics Components, Required Computational and Applied Mathematics Tools, Integration and Management of Code Components, and Project Structure and Management. The ideas, reported here, are the products of these panels, working together over several months and culminating in a 3-day workshop in May 2007.

  14. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  15. Munition Penetration Depth Prediction: SERDP SEED Project MR 2629

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-08-01

    2 Mapping between the coupling-surface finite elements in the real space and reference space during closest-point determination. Point P is the...spherical particle center, point X is the closest point on the reference element surface to the particle point P, and y(X) is the mapping of point X...minimized, the result will be a point y on the coupling surface that is the closest point to the spherical particle. Figure 2. Mapping between the

  16. EDSP Prioritization: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) (SOT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been te...

  17. EDSP Prioritization: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) (SOT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been te...

  18. Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armour, Kyle C.

    2016-10-01

    Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.

  19. PRESCHOOL PREDICTION AND PREVENTION OF LEARNING DISABILITIES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    BEERY, KEITH E.

    THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS INITIAL REPORT OF A FOUR-YEAR PROJECT WERE (1) TO DEMONSTRATE A METHOD FOR THE PREDICTION AND PREVENTION OF LEARNING DISABILITIES, (2) TO FOSTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHILD DEVELOPMENT AMONG TEACHERS, PARENTS, AND PHYSICIANS. SUBJECTS WERE THE 3 1/2 TO 5 1/2 YEAR OLD CHILDREN OF AN ENTIRE SCHOOL DISTRICT. RESEARCHERS WERE…

  20. Predicting the Orbits of Satellites with a TI-85 Calculator.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papay, Kate; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Describes a project that predicts the orbits of satellites using a TI-85 calculator. Enables students to achieve a richer understanding of longitude, latitude, time zones, orbital mechanics of satellites, and the terms associated with satellite tracking. (JRH)

  1. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

  2. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

  3. The lightcraft project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Messitt, Don G.; Myrabo, Leik N.

    1991-01-01

    Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute has been developing a transatmospheric 'Lightcraft' technology which uses beamed laser energy to propel advanced shuttle craft to orbit. In the past several years, Rensselaer students have analyzed the unique combined-cycle Lightcraft engine, designed a small unmanned Lightcraft Technology Demonstrator, and conceptualized larger manned Lightcraft - to name just a few of the interrelated design projects. The 1990-91 class carried out preliminary and detailed design efforts for a one-person 'Mercury' Lightcraft, using computer-aided design and finite-element structural modeling techniques. In addition, they began construction of a 2.6 m-diameter, full-scale engineering prototype mockup. The mockup will be equipped with three robotic legs that 'kneel' for passenger entry and exit. More importantly, the articulated tripod gear is crucial for accurately pointing at, and tracking the laser relay mirrors, a maneuver that must be performed just prior to liftoff. Also accomplished were further design improvements on a 6-inch-diameter Lightcraft model (for testing in RPI's hypersonic tunnel), and new laser propulsion experiments. The resultant experimental data will be used to calibrate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) codes and analytical laser propulsion models that can simulate vehicle/engine flight conditions along a transatmospheric boost trajectory. These efforts will enable the prediction of distributed aerodynamic and thruster loads over the entire full-scale spacecraft.

  4. Oceanographic studies during Project GALE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanton, Jackson O.; Lee, Tom N.; Atkinson, Larry p.; Bane, John M.; Riordan, A.; Raman, S.

    The Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) was a multi-institutional project sponsored primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF), with additional support from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR). The primary objectives were to describe the airflow, mass, and moisture fields during the evolution of U.S. East Coast winter storms, with special emphasis on mesoscale processes;to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the formation and rapid development of East Coast storms; andto develop and test numerical models for the prediction of East Coast cyclones.

  5. Project Echo: Antenna Steering System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klahn, R.; Norton, J. A.; Githens, J. A.

    1961-01-01

    The Project Echo communications experiment employed large, steerable,transmitting and receiving antennas at the ground terminals. It was necessary that these highly directional antennas be continuously and accurately pointed at the passing satellite. This paper describes a new type of special purpose data converter for directing narrow-beam communication antennas on the basis of predicted information. The system is capable of converting digital input data into real-time analog voltage commands with a dynamic accuracy of +/- 0.05 degree, which meets the requirements of the present antennas.

  6. Improving Software Engineering on NASA Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crumbley, Tim; Kelly, John C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Engineering Initiative: Reduces risk of software failure -Increases mission safety. More predictable software cost estimates and delivery schedules. Smarter buyer of contracted out software. More defects found and removed earlier. Reduces duplication of efforts between projects. Increases ability to meet the challenges of evolving software technology.

  7. The Greater New Orleans STAR Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smollen, J. W., III

    1973-01-01

    A description is given of STAR a computer project designed to provide urban planners with needed information rapidly and accurately. Particular attention was given to planning for the New Orleans area. Attempts were also made to analyze interactive effects of urban problems and predict their effects on each other.

  8. Numerical tokamak turbulence project (OFES grand challenge)

    SciTech Connect

    Beer, M; Cohen, B I; Crotinger, J; Dawson, J; Decyk, V; Dimits, A M; Dorland, W D; Hammett, G W; Kerbel, G D; Leboeuf, J N; Lee, W W; Lin, Z; Nevins, W M; Reynders, J; Shumaker, D E; Smith, S; Sydora, R; Waltz, R E; Williams, T

    1999-08-27

    The primary research objective of the Numerical Tokamak Turbulence Project (NTTP) is to develop a predictive ability in modeling turbulent transport due to drift-type instabilities in the core of tokamak fusion experiments, through the use of three-dimensional kinetic and fluid simulations and the derivation of reduced models.

  9. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  10. The EMCC / DARPA Massively Parallel Electromagnetic Scattering Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woo, Alex C.; Hill, Kueichien C.

    1996-01-01

    The Electromagnetic Code Consortium (EMCC) was sponsored by the Advanced Research Program Agency (ARPA) to demonstrate the effectiveness of massively parallel computing in large scale radar signature predictions. The EMCC/ARPA project consisted of three parts.

  11. The Yangtze-Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subklew, Günter; Ulrich, Julia; Fürst, Leander; Höltkemeier, Agnes

    2010-05-01

    then encounter considerably improved climatic conditions with higher temperatures during their physiologically active season in the summer months. This reversal of the flood pulse in the course of the year will exert an enormous influence on the fauna and flora and the associated processes. Other parameters resulting from the management of the reservoir are the sediment deposits and their varying extents in the different zones of the WFZ. For example, the different degrees of compaction of the sediment of the river bank will largely determine the exchange of oxygen, nutrients and metabolites between the plants and the water body and thus the major ecosystem functions. The locally different thicknesses of the sediment body will be decisive for the emergence of plant shoots through the sediment. In areas of high flow rates, in contrast, habitats will be established that are strongly characterized by the dynamics of the pebbles and boulders. The Three Gorges Project will thus bring about a significant change in habitat conditions for vegetation in the WFZ whose consequences cannot yet be predicted with any certainty. This also concerns the potential and long-term impacts of changed vegetation on the local population, who exploit the plant resources, and also on tourism and on the hydroregime and the sedimentation regime in the reservoir. Landslides and rock falls are the major geological events in the Three Gorges region. The mud and debris avalanches formed during such landslips represent a danger both for areas of settlement and also for land used industrially and agriculturally, as well as for infrastructure facilities, and may also considerably obstruct navigation. Furthermore, the analogous mass movements are one of the reasons for the silting up of the Yangtze and many of its tributaries. The region of the Three Gorges contains rapidly growing urban centres that will receive further impulses for growth from the dam project. The fact that the Chongqing conurbation

  12. Predicting Precipitation in Darwin: An Experiment with Markov Chains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boncek, John; Harden, Sig

    2009-01-01

    As teachers of first-year college mathematics and science students, the authors are constantly on the lookout for simple classroom exercises that improve their students' analytical and computational skills. In this article, the authors outline a project entitled "Predicting Precipitation in Darwin." In this project, students: (1) analyze…

  13. CHP Project Development

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Access information and tools to support the CHP project development process, including identifying if your facility is a good fit for CHP, the steps involved with CHP project development, and policies and incentives supportive of CHP.

  14. Elective Program Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estrada, Christelle

    1976-01-01

    Outlined is an interdisciplinary program in Ecology and Oceanography for grades six through eight. Numerous student projects are suggested in the outline and the course requirements and the project system are explained. (MA)

  15. Venezuela's Bolivarian Schools Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diaz, Maria Magnolia Santamaria

    2002-01-01

    Discusses efforts by the Venezuelan government to improve the nation's school infrastructure through the Bolivarian Schools Project administered by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport. The project set educational principles which are guiding current school building efforts. (EV)

  16. FIFRA Project Officers Manual

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The FIFRA Project Officers Manual provides guidance to new as well as experienced project officers in the management of grants and cooperative agreements under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act.

  17. Project Weather and Water.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Pal J. Kirkeby

    2000-01-01

    Introduces Project Weather and Water with the goal of developing and testing ideas of how to implement weather topics and water physics in an integrated way. Discusses teacher preparation, implementation, and evaluation of this project. (ASK)

  18. Project Matching Initiative

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Green Power Partnership's Project Matching initiative works to connect green power users with new, not-yet-built renewable energy projects that may align with their energy, environmental, and financial objectives.

  19. Visible Human Project

    MedlinePlus

    ... videos - requires RealPlayer. A sampler of images and animations from the Project. Belarusian translation of The Visible ... Applications for viewing images Sources of images and animations Products Mirror Sites Tools Media Productions Related Projects ...

  20. The Alzheimer's Project

    MedlinePlus

    ... Navigation Bar Home Current Issue Past Issues The Alzheimer's Project Past Issues / Spring 2009 Table of Contents ... of this page please turn Javascript on. The Alzheimer's Project A 4-Part Documentary Series Starting May ...

  1. Breuner Marsh Restoration Project

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information about the San Francisco Bay Water Quality Project (SFBWQP) Breuner Marsh Restoration Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  2. The "Old Dogs" Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrlich, Robert; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Describes a low cost, easily emulated project designed to improve classroom teaching methods. Discusses the benefits of peer evaluation and lists the criteria used for selecting participants. Highlights lessons learned from the project. (JRH)

  3. Venezuela's Bolivarian Schools Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diaz, Maria Magnolia Santamaria

    2002-01-01

    Discusses efforts by the Venezuelan government to improve the nation's school infrastructure through the Bolivarian Schools Project administered by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport. The project set educational principles which are guiding current school building efforts. (EV)

  4. TRIM timber projections: an evaluation based on forest inventory measurements.

    Treesearch

    John R. Mills

    1989-01-01

    Two consecutive timberland inventories collected from permanent plots in the natural pine type in North Carolina were used to evaluate the timber resource inventory model (TRIM). This study compares model predictions with field measurements and examines the effect of inventory data aggregation on the accuracy of projections. Projections were repeated for two geographic...

  5. Labor Mobilization Project (1980).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-05-15

    input and work with the project. Only eleven counties and cities included the project in their program papers . The project consistently worked with...the project as a part of their program papers around the state: city of Spokane, city of Tacoma, Spokane, Pierce, Clark, Kitsap, Benton, Mason, Cowlitz...national and international unions, the AFL-CIO has state and city central bodies and trade and industrial departments. There are state central bodies in

  6. GHPsRUS Project

    DOE Data Explorer

    Battocletti, Liz

    2013-07-09

    The GHPsRUS Project's full name is "Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal Heat Pump Deployment." The dataset contains employment and installation price data collected by four economic surveys: (1)GHPsRUS Project Manufacturer & OEM Survey, (2) GHPsRUS Project Geothermal Loop Survey, (3) GHPsRUS Project Mechanical Equipment Installation Survey, and (4) GHPsRUS Geothermal Heat Pump Industry Survey

  7. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  8. The Proposal Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierce, Elizabeth

    2007-01-01

    The proposal project stretches over a significant portion of the semester-long sophomore course Professional Communication (ENG 250) at Monroe Community College. While developing their proposal project, students need to use time management skills to successfully complete a quality project on time. In addition, excellent oral and written…

  9. Projects in History

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harben, Cedric Y.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses two types of historical projects conducted by O-level pupils at Clifton College: studies of famous chemists and projects on the development of industrial chemicals. Indicates that a project in the history of chemistry is characterized by its practical and philosophical approach to chemistry study. (CC)

  10. The Sidewalk Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Church, William

    2005-01-01

    In this article, the author features "the sidewalk project" in Littleton High School. The sidewalk project is a collaboration of more than 40 high school physics students, 10 local mentors, and a few regional and national organizations who worked together to invent a way to heat a sidewalk with an alternative energy source. The project, which…

  11. THE ATLANTA SUPERSITE PROJECT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Atlanta Supersites project is the first of two Supersites projects to be established during Phase I of EPA's Supersites Program; Phase 11 is being established through a Request for Assistance. The other initial project is in Fresno, California. The Supersites Program is par...

  12. Humane Education Projects Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Junior League of Ogden, UT.

    This handbook was developed to promote interest in humane education and to encourage the adoption of humane education projects. Although specifically designed to assist Junior Leagues in developing such projects, the content should prove valuable to animal welfare organizations, zoos, aquariums, nature centers, and other project-oriented groups…

  13. Project Pride Evaluation Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jennewein, Marilyn; And Others

    Project PRIDE (Probe, Research, Inquire, Discover, and Evaluate) is evaluated in this report to provide data to be used as a learning tool for project staff and student participants. Major objectives of the project are to provide an inter-disciplinary, objective approach to the study of the American heritage, and to incorporate methods and…

  14. Projection: A Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    Sigmund Freud and his associates did much clinical work with the dynamic of projection, especially with regard to paranoid symptoms and syndromes. Much experimental work has also been done with projection. Sears evaluated the results of some of those studies. Murstein and Pryer sub-classified projection and reviewed typical studies. The…

  15. Projection: A Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    Sigmund Freud and his associates did much clinical work with the dynamic of projection, especially with regard to paranoid symptoms and syndromes. Much experimental work has also been done with projection. Sears evaluated the results of some of those studies. Murstein and Pryer sub-classified projection and reviewed typical studies. The…

  16. Projects in History

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harben, Cedric Y.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses two types of historical projects conducted by O-level pupils at Clifton College: studies of famous chemists and projects on the development of industrial chemicals. Indicates that a project in the history of chemistry is characterized by its practical and philosophical approach to chemistry study. (CC)

  17. The Eggen Card Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvis, G.

    2014-06-01

    (Abstract only) Olin Eggen, noted astronomer (1919-1998), left to us all his raw observation records recorded on 3x5 cards. This project is to make all this data available as an online resource. History and progress of the project will be presented. Project details available at: https://sites.google.com/site/eggencards/home.

  18. System Alternatives Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petrait, James A.

    1977-01-01

    The Systems Alternatives Project is an attempt to develop open classroom alternatives within a modular scheduling system. Biology students are given both action and test objectives that emphasize individualization. Structure of the project is detailed and an attempt to analyze the project evaluation data statistically is included. (MA)

  19. Humane Education Projects Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Junior League of Ogden, UT.

    This handbook was developed to promote interest in humane education and to encourage the adoption of humane education projects. Although specifically designed to assist Junior Leagues in developing such projects, the content should prove valuable to animal welfare organizations, zoos, aquariums, nature centers, and other project-oriented groups…

  20. The Sidewalk Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Church, William

    2005-01-01

    In this article, the author features "the sidewalk project" in Littleton High School. The sidewalk project is a collaboration of more than 40 high school physics students, 10 local mentors, and a few regional and national organizations who worked together to invent a way to heat a sidewalk with an alternative energy source. The project, which…