Validation and comparison of clinical prediction rules for invasive candidiasis in intensive care unit patients: a matched case-control study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Due to the increasing prevalence and severity of invasive candidiasis, investigators have developed clinical prediction rules to identify patients who may benefit from antifungal prophylaxis or early empiric therapy. The aims of this study were to validate and compare the Paphitou and Ostrosky-Zeichner clinical prediction rules in ICU patients in a 689-bed academic medical center. Methods We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study from May 2003 to June 2008 to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of each rule. Cases included adults with ICU stays of at least four days and invasive candidiasis matched to three controls by age, gender and ICU admission date. The clinical prediction rules were applied to cases and controls via retrospective chart review to evaluate the success of the rules in predicting invasive candidiasis. Paphitou's rule included diabetes, total parenteral nutrition (TPN) and dialysis with or without antibiotics. Ostrosky-Zeichner's rule included antibiotics or central venous catheter plus at least two of the following: surgery, immunosuppression, TPN, dialysis, corticosteroids and pancreatitis. Conditional logistic regression was performed to evaluate the rules. Discriminative power was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC). Results A total of 352 patients were included (88 cases and 264 controls). The incidence of invasive candidiasis among adults with an ICU stay of at least four days was 2.3%. The prediction rules performed similarly, exhibiting low PPVs (0.041 to 0.054), high NPVs (0.983 to 0.990) and AUC ROCs (0.649 to 0.705). A new prediction rule (Nebraska Medical Center rule) was developed with PPVs, NPVs and AUC ROCs of 0.047, 0.994 and 0.770, respectively. Conclusions Based on low PPVs and high NPVs, the rules are most useful for identifying patients who are not likely to develop invasive candidiasis, potentially preventing unnecessary antifungal use, optimizing patient ICU care and facilitating the design of forthcoming antifungal clinical trials. PMID:21846332

ChemStable: a web server for rule-embedded naïve Bayesian learning approach to predict compound stability.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihong; Zheng, Minghao; Yan, Xin; Gu, Qiong; Gasteiger, Johann; Tijhuis, Johan; Maas, Peter; Li, Jiabo; Xu, Jun

2014-09-01

Predicting compound chemical stability is important because unstable compounds can lead to either false positive or to false negative conclusions in bioassays. Experimental data (COMDECOM) measured from DMSO/H2O solutions stored at 50 °C for 105 days were used to predicted stability by applying rule-embedded naïve Bayesian learning, based upon atom center fragment (ACF) features. To build the naïve Bayesian classifier, we derived ACF features from 9,746 compounds in the COMDECOM dataset. By recursively applying naïve Bayesian learning from the data set, each ACF is assigned with an expected stable probability (p(s)) and an unstable probability (p(uns)). 13,340 ACFs, together with their p(s) and p(uns) data, were stored in a knowledge base for use by the Bayesian classifier. For a given compound, its ACFs were derived from its structure connection table with the same protocol used to drive ACFs from the training data. Then, the Bayesian classifier assigned p(s) and p(uns) values to the compound ACFs by a structural pattern recognition algorithm, which was implemented in-house. Compound instability is calculated, with Bayes' theorem, based upon the p(s) and p(uns) values of the compound ACFs. We were able to achieve performance with an AUC value of 84% and a tenfold cross validation accuracy of 76.5%. To reduce false negatives, a rule-based approach has been embedded in the classifier. The rule-based module allows the program to improve its predictivity by expanding its compound instability knowledge base, thus further reducing the possibility of false negatives. To our knowledge, this is the first in silico prediction service for the prediction of the stabilities of organic compounds.

Predictions of Crystal Structure Based on Radius Ratio: How Reliable Are They?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nathan, Lawrence C.

1985-01-01

Discussion of crystalline solids in undergraduate curricula often includes the use of radius ratio rules as a method for predicting which type of crystal structure is likely to be adopted by a given ionic compound. Examines this topic, establishing more definitive guidelines for the use and reliability of the rules. (JN)

ReactPRED: a tool to predict and analyze biochemical reactions.

PubMed

Sivakumar, Tadi Venkata; Giri, Varun; Park, Jin Hwan; Kim, Tae Yong; Bhaduri, Anirban

2016-11-15

Biochemical pathways engineering is often used to synthesize or degrade target chemicals. In silico screening of the biochemical transformation space allows predicting feasible reactions, constituting these pathways. Current enabling tools are customized to predict reactions based on pre-defined biochemical transformations or reaction rule sets. Reaction rule sets are usually curated manually and tailored to specific applications. They are not exhaustive. In addition, current systems are incapable of regulating and refining data with an aim to tune specificity and sensitivity. A robust and flexible tool that allows automated reaction rule set creation along with regulated pathway prediction and analyses is a need. ReactPRED aims to address the same. ReactPRED is an open source flexible and customizable tool enabling users to predict biochemical reactions and pathways. The tool allows automated reaction rule creation from a user defined reaction set. Additionally, reaction rule degree and rule tolerance features allow refinement of predicted data. It is available as a flexible graphical user interface and a console application. ReactPRED is available at: https://sourceforge.net/projects/reactpred/ CONTACT: anirban.b@samsung.com or ty76.kim@samsung.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Retrosynthetic Reaction Prediction Using Neural Sequence-to-Sequence Models

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We describe a fully data driven model that learns to perform a retrosynthetic reaction prediction task, which is treated as a sequence-to-sequence mapping problem. The end-to-end trained model has an encoder–decoder architecture that consists of two recurrent neural networks, which has previously shown great success in solving other sequence-to-sequence prediction tasks such as machine translation. The model is trained on 50,000 experimental reaction examples from the United States patent literature, which span 10 broad reaction types that are commonly used by medicinal chemists. We find that our model performs comparably with a rule-based expert system baseline model, and also overcomes certain limitations associated with rule-based expert systems and with any machine learning approach that contains a rule-based expert system component. Our model provides an important first step toward solving the challenging problem of computational retrosynthetic analysis. PMID:29104927

Efficacy of an evidence-based clinical decision support in primary care practices: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

McGinn, Thomas G; McCullagh, Lauren; Kannry, Joseph; Knaus, Megan; Sofianou, Anastasia; Wisnivesky, Juan P; Mann, Devin M

2013-09-23

There is consensus that incorporating clinical decision support into electronic health records will improve quality of care, contain costs, and reduce overtreatment, but this potential has yet to be demonstrated in clinical trials. To assess the influence of a customized evidence-based clinical decision support tool on the management of respiratory tract infections and on the effectiveness of integrating evidence at the point of care. In a randomized clinical trial, we implemented 2 well-validated integrated clinical prediction rules, namely, the Walsh rule for streptococcal pharyngitis and the Heckerling rule for pneumonia. INTERVENTIONS AND MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The intervention group had access to the integrated clinical prediction rule tool and chose whether to complete risk score calculators, order medications, and generate progress notes to assist with complex decision making at the point of care. The intervention group completed the integrated clinical prediction rule tool in 57.5% of visits. Providers in the intervention group were significantly less likely to order antibiotics than the control group (age-adjusted relative risk, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60-0.92). The absolute risk of the intervention was 9.2%, and the number needed to treat was 10.8. The intervention group was significantly less likely to order rapid streptococcal tests compared with the control group (relative risk, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.97; P= .03). The integrated clinical prediction rule process for integrating complex evidence-based clinical decision report tools is of relevant importance for national initiatives, such as Meaningful Use. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01386047.

A rule-based expert system for chemical prioritization using effects-based chemical categories

EPA Science Inventory

A rule-based expert system (ES) was developed to predict chemical binding to the estrogen receptor (ER) patterned on the research approaches championed by Gilman Veith to whom this article and journal issue are dedicated. The ERES was built to be mechanistically-transparent and m...

Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-12-01

Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

A simplified approach to the pooled analysis of calibration of clinical prediction rules for systematic reviews of validation studies

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Borislav D; Motterlini, Nicola; Fahey, Tom

2015-01-01

Objective Estimating calibration performance of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) in systematic reviews of validation studies is not possible when predicted values are neither published nor accessible or sufficient or no individual participant or patient data are available. Our aims were to describe a simplified approach for outcomes prediction and calibration assessment and evaluate its functionality and validity. Study design and methods: Methodological study of systematic reviews of validation studies of CPRs: a) ABCD2 rule for prediction of 7 day stroke; and b) CRB-65 rule for prediction of 30 day mortality. Predicted outcomes in a sample validation study were computed by CPR distribution patterns (“derivation model”). As confirmation, a logistic regression model (with derivation study coefficients) was applied to CPR-based dummy variables in the validation study. Meta-analysis of validation studies provided pooled estimates of “predicted:observed” risk ratios (RRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and indexes of heterogeneity (I2) on forest plots (fixed and random effects models), with and without adjustment of intercepts. The above approach was also applied to the CRB-65 rule. Results Our simplified method, applied to ABCD2 rule in three risk strata (low, 0–3; intermediate, 4–5; high, 6–7 points), indicated that predictions are identical to those computed by univariate, CPR-based logistic regression model. Discrimination was good (c-statistics =0.61–0.82), however, calibration in some studies was low. In such cases with miscalibration, the under-prediction (RRs =0.73–0.91, 95% CIs 0.41–1.48) could be further corrected by intercept adjustment to account for incidence differences. An improvement of both heterogeneities and P-values (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) was observed. Better calibration and improved pooled RRs (0.90–1.06), with narrower 95% CIs (0.57–1.41) were achieved. Conclusion Our results have an immediate clinical implication in situations when predicted outcomes in CPR validation studies are lacking or deficient by describing how such predictions can be obtained by everyone using the derivation study alone, without any need for highly specialized knowledge or sophisticated statistics. PMID:25931829

Rule Mining Techniques to Predict Prokaryotic Metabolic Pathways.

PubMed

Saidi, Rabie; Boudellioua, Imane; Martin, Maria J; Solovyev, Victor

2017-01-01

It is becoming more evident that computational methods are needed for the identification and the mapping of pathways in new genomes. We introduce an automatic annotation system (ARBA4Path Association Rule-Based Annotator for Pathways) that utilizes rule mining techniques to predict metabolic pathways across wide range of prokaryotes. It was demonstrated that specific combinations of protein domains (recorded in our rules) strongly determine pathways in which proteins are involved and thus provide information that let us very accurately assign pathway membership (with precision of 0.999 and recall of 0.966) to proteins of a given prokaryotic taxon. Our system can be used to enhance the quality of automatically generated annotations as well as annotating proteins with unknown function. The prediction models are represented in the form of human-readable rules, and they can be used effectively to add absent pathway information to many proteins in UniProtKB/TrEMBL database.

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

Classification Based on Pruning and Double Covered Rule Sets for the Internet of Things Applications

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhongmei; Wang, Weiping

2014-01-01

The Internet of things (IOT) is a hot issue in recent years. It accumulates large amounts of data by IOT users, which is a great challenge to mining useful knowledge from IOT. Classification is an effective strategy which can predict the need of users in IOT. However, many traditional rule-based classifiers cannot guarantee that all instances can be covered by at least two classification rules. Thus, these algorithms cannot achieve high accuracy in some datasets. In this paper, we propose a new rule-based classification, CDCR-P (Classification based on the Pruning and Double Covered Rule sets). CDCR-P can induce two different rule sets A and B. Every instance in training set can be covered by at least one rule not only in rule set A, but also in rule set B. In order to improve the quality of rule set B, we take measure to prune the length of rules in rule set B. Our experimental results indicate that, CDCR-P not only is feasible, but also it can achieve high accuracy. PMID:24511304

Classification based on pruning and double covered rule sets for the internet of things applications.

PubMed

Li, Shasha; Zhou, Zhongmei; Wang, Weiping

2014-01-01

The Internet of things (IOT) is a hot issue in recent years. It accumulates large amounts of data by IOT users, which is a great challenge to mining useful knowledge from IOT. Classification is an effective strategy which can predict the need of users in IOT. However, many traditional rule-based classifiers cannot guarantee that all instances can be covered by at least two classification rules. Thus, these algorithms cannot achieve high accuracy in some datasets. In this paper, we propose a new rule-based classification, CDCR-P (Classification based on the Pruning and Double Covered Rule sets). CDCR-P can induce two different rule sets A and B. Every instance in training set can be covered by at least one rule not only in rule set A, but also in rule set B. In order to improve the quality of rule set B, we take measure to prune the length of rules in rule set B. Our experimental results indicate that, CDCR-P not only is feasible, but also it can achieve high accuracy.

Do Americans Have a Preference for Rule-Based Classification?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Gregory L.; Bosch, David A.; Kim, ShinWoo

2017-01-01

Six experiments investigated variables predicted to influence subjects' tendency to classify items by a single property ("rule-based" responding) instead of overall similarity, following the paradigm of Norenzayan et al. (2002, "Cognitive Science"), who found that European Americans tended to give more "logical"…

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

PubMed Central

Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin

2015-01-01

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. PMID:26590280

A Rational Analysis of Rule-Based Concept Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, Noah D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Feldman, Jacob; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2008-01-01

This article proposes a new model of human concept learning that provides a rational analysis of learning feature-based concepts. This model is built upon Bayesian inference for a grammatically structured hypothesis space--a concept language of logical rules. This article compares the model predictions to human generalization judgments in several…

Location Prediction Based on Transition Probability Matrices Constructing from Sequential Rules for Spatial-Temporal K-Anonymity Dataset

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong; Wu, Chenxue

2016-01-01

Spatial-temporal k-anonymity has become a mainstream approach among techniques for protection of users’ privacy in location-based services (LBS) applications, and has been applied to several variants such as LBS snapshot queries and continuous queries. Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal anonymity sets may benefit several LBS applications. In this paper, we propose two location prediction methods based on transition probability matrices constructing from sequential rules for spatial-temporal k-anonymity dataset. First, we define single-step sequential rules mined from sequential spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets generated from continuous LBS queries for multiple users. We then construct transition probability matrices from mined single-step sequential rules, and normalize the transition probabilities in the transition matrices. Next, we regard a mobility model for an LBS requester as a stationary stochastic process and compute the n-step transition probability matrices by raising the normalized transition probability matrices to the power n. Furthermore, we propose two location prediction methods: rough prediction and accurate prediction. The former achieves the probabilities of arriving at target locations along simple paths those include only current locations, target locations and transition steps. By iteratively combining the probabilities for simple paths with n steps and the probabilities for detailed paths with n-1 steps, the latter method calculates transition probabilities for detailed paths with n steps from current locations to target locations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments, and correctness and flexibility of our proposed algorithm have been verified. PMID:27508502

Inside the black box: starting to uncover the underlying decision rules used in one-by-one expert assessment of occupational exposure in case-control studies

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Yu, Kai; Shortreed, Susan M.; Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2014-01-01

Objectives Evaluating occupational exposures in population-based case-control studies often requires exposure assessors to review each study participants' reported occupational information job-by-job to derive exposure estimates. Although such assessments likely have underlying decision rules, they usually lack transparency, are time-consuming and have uncertain reliability and validity. We aimed to identify the underlying rules to enable documentation, review, and future use of these expert-based exposure decisions. Methods Classification and regression trees (CART, predictions from a single tree) and random forests (predictions from many trees) were used to identify the underlying rules from the questionnaire responses and an expert's exposure assignments for occupational diesel exhaust exposure for several metrics: binary exposure probability and ordinal exposure probability, intensity, and frequency. Data were split into training (n=10,488 jobs), testing (n=2,247), and validation (n=2,248) data sets. Results The CART and random forest models' predictions agreed with 92–94% of the expert's binary probability assignments. For ordinal probability, intensity, and frequency metrics, the two models extracted decision rules more successfully for unexposed and highly exposed jobs (86–90% and 57–85%, respectively) than for low or medium exposed jobs (7–71%). Conclusions CART and random forest models extracted decision rules and accurately predicted an expert's exposure decisions for the majority of jobs and identified questionnaire response patterns that would require further expert review if the rules were applied to other jobs in the same or different study. This approach makes the exposure assessment process in case-control studies more transparent and creates a mechanism to efficiently replicate exposure decisions in future studies. PMID:23155187

Towards a Semantically-Enabled Control Strategy for Building Simulations: Integration of Semantic Technologies and Model Predictive Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delgoshaei, Parastoo; Austin, Mark A.; Pertzborn, Amanda J.

State-of-the-art building simulation control methods incorporate physical constraints into their mathematical models, but omit implicit constraints associated with policies of operation and dependency relationships among rules representing those constraints. To overcome these shortcomings, there is a recent trend in enabling the control strategies with inference-based rule checking capabilities. One solution is to exploit semantic web technologies in building simulation control. Such approaches provide the tools for semantic modeling of domains, and the ability to deduce new information based on the models through use of Description Logic (DL). In a step toward enabling this capability, this paper presents a cross-disciplinary data-drivenmore » control strategy for building energy management simulation that integrates semantic modeling and formal rule checking mechanisms into a Model Predictive Control (MPC) formulation. The results show that MPC provides superior levels of performance when initial conditions and inputs are derived from inference-based rules.« less

Clinical decision rules, spinal pain classification and prediction of treatment outcome: A discussion of recent reports in the rehabilitation literature

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Clinical decision rules are an increasingly common presence in the biomedical literature and represent one strategy of enhancing clinical-decision making with the goal of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare delivery. In the context of rehabilitation research, clinical decision rules have been predominantly aimed at classifying patients by predicting their treatment response to specific therapies. Traditionally, recommendations for developing clinical decision rules propose a multistep process (derivation, validation, impact analysis) using defined methodology. Research efforts aimed at developing a “diagnosis-based clinical decision rule” have departed from this convention. Recent publications in this line of research have used the modified terminology “diagnosis-based clinical decision guide.” Modifications to terminology and methodology surrounding clinical decision rules can make it more difficult for clinicians to recognize the level of evidence associated with a decision rule and understand how this evidence should be implemented to inform patient care. We provide a brief overview of clinical decision rule development in the context of the rehabilitation literature and two specific papers recently published in Chiropractic and Manual Therapies. PMID:22726639

Semi-empirical correlation for binary interaction parameters of the Peng-Robinson equation of state with the van der Waals mixing rules for the prediction of high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibrium.

PubMed

Fateen, Seif-Eddeen K; Khalil, Menna M; Elnabawy, Ahmed O

2013-03-01

Peng-Robinson equation of state is widely used with the classical van der Waals mixing rules to predict vapor liquid equilibria for systems containing hydrocarbons and related compounds. This model requires good values of the binary interaction parameter kij . In this work, we developed a semi-empirical correlation for kij partly based on the Huron-Vidal mixing rules. We obtained values for the adjustable parameters of the developed formula for over 60 binary systems and over 10 categories of components. The predictions of the new equation system were slightly better than the constant-kij model in most cases, except for 10 systems whose predictions were considerably improved with the new correlation.

Estimating tree grades for Southern Appalachian natural forest stands

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon

1998-01-01

Log prices can vary significantly by grade: grade 1 logs are often several times the price per unit of grade 3 logs. Because tree grading rules derive from log grading rules, a model that predicts tree grades based on tree and stand-level variables might be useful for predicting stand values. The model could then assist in the modeling of timber supply and in economic...

Identification of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis patients by transcriptome-based rule set generation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction Discrimination of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients from patients with other inflammatory or degenerative joint diseases or healthy individuals purely on the basis of genes differentially expressed in high-throughput data has proven very difficult. Thus, the present study sought to achieve such discrimination by employing a novel unbiased approach using rule-based classifiers. Methods Three multi-center genome-wide transcriptomic data sets (Affymetrix HG-U133 A/B) from a total of 79 individuals, including 20 healthy controls (control group - CG), as well as 26 osteoarthritis (OA) and 33 RA patients, were used to infer rule-based classifiers to discriminate the disease groups. The rules were ranked with respect to Kiendl’s statistical relevance index, and the resulting rule set was optimized by pruning. The rule sets were inferred separately from data of one of three centers and applied to the two remaining centers for validation. All rules from the optimized rule sets of all centers were used to analyze their biological relevance applying the software Pathway Studio. Results The optimized rule sets for the three centers contained a total of 29, 20, and 8 rules (including 10, 8, and 4 rules for ‘RA’), respectively. The mean sensitivity for the prediction of RA based on six center-to-center tests was 96% (range 90% to 100%), that for OA 86% (range 40% to 100%). The mean specificity for RA prediction was 94% (range 80% to 100%), that for OA 96% (range 83.3% to 100%). The average overall accuracy of the three different rule-based classifiers was 91% (range 80% to 100%). Unbiased analyses by Pathway Studio of the gene sets obtained by discrimination of RA from OA and CG with rule-based classifiers resulted in the identification of the pathogenetically and/or therapeutically relevant interferon-gamma and GM-CSF pathways. Conclusion First-time application of rule-based classifiers for the discrimination of RA resulted in high performance, with means for all assessment parameters close to or higher than 90%. In addition, this unbiased, new approach resulted in the identification not only of pathways known to be critical to RA, but also of novel molecules such as serine/threonine kinase 10. PMID:24690414

Improved Personalized Recommendation Based on Causal Association Rule and Collaborative Filtering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lei, Wu; Qing, Fang; Zhou, Jin

2016-01-01

There are usually limited user evaluation of resources on a recommender system, which caused an extremely sparse user rating matrix, and this greatly reduce the accuracy of personalized recommendation, especially for new users or new items. This paper presents a recommendation method based on rating prediction using causal association rules.…

Decision support system for triage management: A hybrid approach using rule-based reasoning and fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Dehghani Soufi, Mahsa; Samad-Soltani, Taha; Shams Vahdati, Samad; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman

2018-06-01

Fast and accurate patient triage for the response process is a critical first step in emergency situations. This process is often performed using a paper-based mode, which intensifies workload and difficulty, wastes time, and is at risk of human errors. This study aims to design and evaluate a decision support system (DSS) to determine the triage level. A combination of the Rule-Based Reasoning (RBR) and Fuzzy Logic Classifier (FLC) approaches were used to predict the triage level of patients according to the triage specialist's opinions and Emergency Severity Index (ESI) guidelines. RBR was applied for modeling the first to fourth decision points of the ESI algorithm. The data relating to vital signs were used as input variables and modeled using fuzzy logic. Narrative knowledge was converted to If-Then rules using XML. The extracted rules were then used to create the rule-based engine and predict the triage levels. Fourteen RBR and 27 fuzzy rules were extracted and used in the rule-based engine. The performance of the system was evaluated using three methods with real triage data. The accuracy of the clinical decision support systems (CDSSs; in the test data) was 99.44%. The evaluation of the error rate revealed that, when using the traditional method, 13.4% of the patients were miss-triaged, which is statically significant. The completeness of the documentation also improved from 76.72% to 98.5%. Designed system was effective in determining the triage level of patients and it proved helpful for nurses as they made decisions, generated nursing diagnoses based on triage guidelines. The hybrid approach can reduce triage misdiagnosis in a highly accurate manner and improve the triage outcomes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Verification and Validation of KBS with Neural Network Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, Wu; Callahan, John

1996-01-01

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) play an important role in developing robust Knowledge Based Systems (KBS). The ANN based components used in these systems learn to give appropriate predictions through training with correct input-output data patterns. Unlike traditional KBS that depends on a rule database and a production engine, the ANN based system mimics the decisions of an expert without specifically formulating the if-than type of rules. In fact, the ANNs demonstrate their superiority when such if-then type of rules are hard to generate by human expert. Verification of traditional knowledge based system is based on the proof of consistency and completeness of the rule knowledge base and correctness of the production engine.These techniques, however, can not be directly applied to ANN based components.In this position paper, we propose a verification and validation procedure for KBS with ANN based components. The essence of the procedure is to obtain an accurate system specification through incremental modification of the specifications using an ANN rule extraction algorithm.

Clinical Decision Support for a Multicenter Trial of Pediatric Head Trauma

PubMed Central

Swietlik, Marguerite; Deakyne, Sara; Hoffman, Jeffrey M.; Grundmeier, Robert W.; Paterno, Marilyn D.; Rocha, Beatriz H.; Schaeffer, Molly H; Pabbathi, Deepika; Alessandrini, Evaline; Ballard, Dustin; Goldberg, Howard S.; Kuppermann, Nathan; Dayan, Peter S.

2016-01-01

Summary Introduction For children who present to emergency departments (EDs) due to blunt head trauma, ED clinicians must decide who requires computed tomography (CT) scanning to evaluate for traumatic brain injury (TBI). The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) derived and validated two age-based prediction rules to identify children at very low risk of clinically-important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBIs) who do not typically require CT scans. In this case report, we describe the strategy used to implement the PECARN TBI prediction rules via electronic health record (EHR) clinical decision support (CDS) as the intervention in a multicenter clinical trial. Methods Thirteen EDs participated in this trial. The 10 sites receiving the CDS intervention used the Epic® EHR. All sites implementing EHR-based CDS built the rules by using the vendor’s CDS engine. Based on a sociotechnical analysis, we designed the CDS so that recommendations could be displayed immediately after any provider entered prediction rule data. One central site developed and tested the intervention package to be exported to other sites. The intervention package included a clinical trial alert, an electronic data collection form, the CDS rules and the format for recommendations. Results The original PECARN head trauma prediction rules were derived from physician documentation while this pragmatic trial led each site to customize their workflows and allow multiple different providers to complete the head trauma assessments. These differences in workflows led to varying completion rates across sites as well as differences in the types of providers completing the electronic data form. Site variation in internal change management processes made it challenging to maintain the same rigor across all sites. This led to downstream effects when data reports were developed. Conclusions The process of a centralized build and export of a CDS system in one commercial EHR system successfully supported a multicenter clinical trial. PMID:27437059

Pooled individual patient data from five countries were used to derive a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care.

PubMed

Aerts, Marc; Minalu, Girma; Bösner, Stefan; Buntinx, Frank; Burnand, Bernard; Haasenritter, Jörg; Herzig, Lilli; Knottnerus, J André; Nilsson, Staffan; Renier, Walter; Sox, Carol; Sox, Harold; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2017-01-01

To construct a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease (CAD) presenting with chest pain in primary care. Meta-Analysis using 3,099 patients from five studies. To identify candidate predictors, we used random forest trees, multiple imputation of missing values, and logistic regression within individual studies. To generate a prediction rule on the pooled data, we applied a regression model that took account of the differing standard data sets collected by the five studies. The most parsimonious rule included six equally weighted predictors: age ≥55 (males) or ≥65 (females) (+1); attending physician suspected a serious diagnosis (+1); history of CAD (+1); pain brought on by exertion (+1); pain feels like "pressure" (+1); pain reproducible by palpation (-1). CAD was considered absent if the prediction score is <2. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. We applied this rule to a study setting with a CAD prevalence of 13.2% using a prediction score cutoff of <2 (i.e., -1, 0, or +1). When the score was <2, the probability of CAD was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.9%); when the score was ≥ 2, it was 43.0% (95% CI: 35.8-50.4%). Clinical prediction rules are a key strategy for individualizing care. Large data sets based on electronic health records from diverse sites create opportunities for improving their internal and external validity. Our patient-level meta-analysis from five primary care sites should improve external validity. Our strategy for addressing site-to-site systematic variation in missing data should improve internal validity. Using principles derived from decision theory, we also discuss the problem of setting the cutoff prediction score for taking action. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy regression modeling for tool performance prediction and degradation detection.

PubMed

Li, X; Er, M J; Lim, B S; Zhou, J H; Gan, O P; Rutkowski, L

2010-10-01

In this paper, the viability of using Fuzzy-Rule-Based Regression Modeling (FRM) algorithm for tool performance and degradation detection is investigated. The FRM is developed based on a multi-layered fuzzy-rule-based hybrid system with Multiple Regression Models (MRM) embedded into a fuzzy logic inference engine that employs Self Organizing Maps (SOM) for clustering. The FRM converts a complex nonlinear problem to a simplified linear format in order to further increase the accuracy in prediction and rate of convergence. The efficacy of the proposed FRM is tested through a case study - namely to predict the remaining useful life of a ball nose milling cutter during a dry machining process of hardened tool steel with a hardness of 52-54 HRc. A comparative study is further made between four predictive models using the same set of experimental data. It is shown that the FRM is superior as compared with conventional MRM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) in terms of prediction accuracy and learning speed.

Prediction of vesicoureteral reflux after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children: validation of a clinical decision rule.

PubMed

Leroy, S; Marc, E; Adamsbaum, C; Gendrel, D; Bréart, G; Chalumeau, M

2006-03-01

To test the reproducibility of a highly sensitive clinical decision rule proposed to predict vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children. This rule combines clinical (family history of uropathology, male gender, young age), biological (raised C reactive protein), and radiological (urinary tract dilation on renal ultrasound) predictors in a score, and provides 100% sensitivity. A retrospective hospital based cohort study included all children, 1 month to 4 years old, with a first febrile urinary tract infection. The sensitivities and specificities of the rule at the two previously proposed score thresholds (< or =0 and < or =5) to predict respectively, all-grade or grade > or =3 VUR, were calculated. A total of 149 children were included. VUR prevalence was 25%. The rule yielded 100% sensitivity and 3% specificity for all-grade VUR, and 93% sensitivity and 13% specificity for grade > or =3 VUR. Some methodological weaknesses explain this lack of reproducibility. The reproducibility of the previously proposed decision rule was poor and its potential contribution to clinical management of children with febrile urinary tract infection seems to be modest.

Prediction of vesicoureteral reflux after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children: validation of a clinical decision rule

PubMed Central

Leroy, S; Marc, E; Adamsbaum, C; Gendrel, D; Bréart, G; Chalumeau, M

2006-01-01

Aims To test the reproducibility of a highly sensitive clinical decision rule proposed to predict vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children. This rule combines clinical (family history of uropathology, male gender, young age), biological (raised C reactive protein), and radiological (urinary tract dilation on renal ultrasound) predictors in a score, and provides 100% sensitivity. Methods A retrospective hospital based cohort study included all children, 1 month to 4 years old, with a first febrile urinary tract infection. The sensitivities and specificities of the rule at the two previously proposed score thresholds (⩽0 and ⩽5) to predict respectively, all‐grade or grade ⩾3 VUR, were calculated. Results A total of 149 children were included. VUR prevalence was 25%. The rule yielded 100% sensitivity and 3% specificity for all‐grade VUR, and 93% sensitivity and 13% specificity for grade ⩾3 VUR. Some methodological weaknesses explain this lack of reproducibility. Conclusions The reproducibility of the previously proposed decision rule was poor and its potential contribution to clinical management of children with febrile urinary tract infection seems to be modest. PMID:15890693

An Autonomous Flight Safety System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

are taken. AFSS can take vehicle navigation data from redundant onboard sensors and make flight termination decisions using software-based rules...implemented on redundant flight processors. By basing these decisions on actual Instantaneous Impact Predictions and by providing for an arbitrary...number of mission rules, it is the contention of the AFSS development team that the decision making process used by Missile Flight Control Officers

Rule extraction from minimal neural networks for credit card screening.

PubMed

Setiono, Rudy; Baesens, Bart; Mues, Christophe

2011-08-01

While feedforward neural networks have been widely accepted as effective tools for solving classification problems, the issue of finding the best network architecture remains unresolved, particularly so in real-world problem settings. We address this issue in the context of credit card screening, where it is important to not only find a neural network with good predictive performance but also one that facilitates a clear explanation of how it produces its predictions. We show that minimal neural networks with as few as one hidden unit provide good predictive accuracy, while having the added advantage of making it easier to generate concise and comprehensible classification rules for the user. To further reduce model size, a novel approach is suggested in which network connections from the input units to this hidden unit are removed by a very straightaway pruning procedure. In terms of predictive accuracy, both the minimized neural networks and the rule sets generated from them are shown to compare favorably with other neural network based classifiers. The rules generated from the minimized neural networks are concise and thus easier to validate in a real-life setting.

ConsPred: a rule-based (re-)annotation framework for prokaryotic genomes.

PubMed

Weinmaier, Thomas; Platzer, Alexander; Frank, Jeroen; Hellinger, Hans-Jörg; Tischler, Patrick; Rattei, Thomas

2016-11-01

The rapidly growing number of available prokaryotic genome sequences requires fully automated and high-quality software solutions for their initial and re-annotation. Here we present ConsPred, a prokaryotic genome annotation framework that performs intrinsic gene predictions, homology searches, predictions of non-coding genes as well as CRISPR repeats and integrates all evidence into a consensus annotation. ConsPred achieves comprehensive, high-quality annotations based on rules and priorities, similar to decision-making in manual curation and avoids conflicting predictions. Parameters controlling the annotation process are configurable by the user. ConsPred has been used in the institutions of the authors for longer than 5 years and can easily be extended and adapted to specific needs. The ConsPred algorithm for producing a consensus from the varying scores of multiple gene prediction programs approaches manual curation in accuracy. Its rule-based approach for choosing final predictions avoids overriding previous manual curations. ConsPred is implemented in Java, Perl and Shell and is freely available under the Creative Commons license as a stand-alone in-house pipeline or as an Amazon Machine Image for cloud computing, see https://sourceforge.net/projects/conspred/. thomas.rattei@univie.ac.atSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Progress in mental workload measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moray, Neville; Turksen, Burhan; Aidie, Paul; Drascic, David; Eisen, Paul

1986-01-01

Two new techniques are described, one using subjective, the other physiological data for the measurement of workload in complex tasks. The subjective approach uses fuzzy measurement to analyze and predict the difficulty of combinations of skill based and rule based behavior from the difficulty of skill based behavior and rule based behavior measured separately. The physiological technique offers an on-line real-time filter for measuring the Mulder signal at 0.1 Hz in the heart rate variability spectrum.

A New Approach for Resolving Conflicts in Actionable Behavioral Rules

PubMed Central

Zhu, Dan; Zeng, Daniel

2014-01-01

Knowledge is considered actionable if users can take direct actions based on such knowledge to their advantage. Among the most important and distinctive actionable knowledge are actionable behavioral rules that can directly and explicitly suggest specific actions to take to influence (restrain or encourage) the behavior in the users' best interest. However, in mining such rules, it often occurs that different rules may suggest the same actions with different expected utilities, which we call conflicting rules. To resolve the conflicts, a previous valid method was proposed. However, inconsistency of the measure for rule evaluating may hinder its performance. To overcome this problem, we develop a new method that utilizes rule ranking procedure as the basis for selecting the rule with the highest utility prediction accuracy. More specifically, we propose an integrative measure, which combines the measures of the support and antecedent length, to evaluate the utility prediction accuracies of conflicting rules. We also introduce a tunable weight parameter to allow the flexibility of integration. We conduct several experiments to test our proposed approach and evaluate the sensitivity of the weight parameter. Empirical results indicate that our approach outperforms those from previous research. PMID:25162054

Predicting the need for CT imaging in children with minor head injury using an ensemble of Naive Bayes classifiers.

PubMed

Klement, William; Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Wojtek; Farion, Ken J; Osmond, Martin H; Verter, Vedat

2012-03-01

Using an automatic data-driven approach, this paper develops a prediction model that achieves more balanced performance (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) than the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) rule, when predicting the need for computed tomography (CT) imaging of children after a minor head injury. CT is widely considered an effective tool for evaluating patients with minor head trauma who have potentially suffered serious intracranial injury. However, its use poses possible harmful effects, particularly for children, due to exposure to radiation. Safety concerns, along with issues of cost and practice variability, have led to calls for the development of effective methods to decide when CT imaging is needed. Clinical decision rules represent such methods and are normally derived from the analysis of large prospectively collected patient data sets. The CATCH rule was created by a group of Canadian pediatric emergency physicians to support the decision of referring children with minor head injury to CT imaging. The goal of the CATCH rule was to maximize the sensitivity of predictions of potential intracranial lesion while keeping specificity at a reasonable level. After extensive analysis of the CATCH data set, characterized by severe class imbalance, and after a thorough evaluation of several data mining methods, we derived an ensemble of multiple Naive Bayes classifiers as the prediction model for CT imaging decisions. In the first phase of the experiment we compared the proposed ensemble model to other ensemble models employing rule-, tree- and instance-based member classifiers. Our prediction model demonstrated the best performance in terms of AUC, G-mean and sensitivity measures. In the second phase, using a bootstrapping experiment similar to that reported by the CATCH investigators, we showed that the proposed ensemble model achieved a more balanced predictive performance than the CATCH rule with an average sensitivity of 82.8% and an average specificity of 74.4% (vs. 98.1% and 50.0% for the CATCH rule respectively). Automatically derived prediction models cannot replace a physician's acumen. However, they help establish reference performance indicators for the purpose of developing clinical decision rules so the trade-off between prediction sensitivity and specificity is better understood. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is the Factor-of-2 Rule Broadly Applicable for Evaluating the Prediction Accuracy of Metal-Toxicity Models?

PubMed

Meyer, Joseph S; Traudt, Elizabeth M; Ranville, James F

2018-01-01

In aquatic toxicology, a toxicity-prediction model is generally deemed acceptable if its predicted median lethal concentrations (LC50 values) or median effect concentrations (EC50 values) are within a factor of 2 of their paired, observed LC50 or EC50 values. However, that rule of thumb is based on results from only two studies: multiple LC50 values for the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposed to Cu in one type of exposure water, and multiple EC50 values for Daphnia magna exposed to Zn in another type of exposure water. We tested whether the factor-of-2 rule of thumb also is supported in a different dataset in which D. magna were exposed separately to Cd, Cu, Ni, or Zn. Overall, the factor-of-2 rule of thumb appeared to be a good guide to evaluating the acceptability of a toxicity model's underprediction or overprediction of observed LC50 or EC50 values in these acute toxicity tests.

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network

PubMed Central

Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. PMID:29420584

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

PubMed

Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Using Landscape-Based Decision Rules to Prioritize Locations of Fuel Treatments in the Boreal Mixedwood of Western Canada

Treesearch

Marc-André Parisien; Dave R. Junor; Victor G. Kafka

2006-01-01

This study used a rule-based approach to prioritize locations of fuel treatments in the boreal mixedwood forest of western Canada. The burn probability (BP) in and around Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan was mapped using the Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning) model. Fuel treatment locations were determined according to three scenarios and five...

A Comparison of Common and Novel Curriculum-Based Measurement of Reading Decision Rules to Predict Spring Performance for Students Receiving Supplemental Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Norman, Ethan R.; Parker, David C.

2018-01-01

Recent simulations suggest that trend line decision rules applied to curriculum-based measurement of reading progress monitoring data may lead to inaccurate interpretations unless data are collected for upward of 3 months. The authors of those studies did not manipulate goal line slope or account for a student's level of initial performance when…

Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G

2018-02-01

When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.

2014-09-01

The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc.) or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming) approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

An algorithm for rule-in and rule-out of acute myocardial infarction using a novel troponin I assay.

PubMed

Lindahl, Bertil; Jernberg, Tomas; Badertscher, Patrick; Boeddinghaus, Jasper; Eggers, Kai M; Frick, Mats; Rubini Gimenez, Maria; Linder, Rickard; Ljung, Lina; Martinsson, Arne; Melki, Dina; Nestelberger, Thomas; Rentsch, Katharina; Reichlin, Tobias; Sabti, Zaid; Schubera, Marie; Svensson, Per; Twerenbold, Raphael; Wildi, Karin; Mueller, Christian

2017-01-15

To derive and validate a hybrid algorithm for rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction based on measurements at presentation and after 2 hours with a novel cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay. The algorithm was derived and validated in two cohorts (605 and 592 patients) from multicentre studies enrolling chest pain patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with onset of last episode within 12 hours. The index diagnosis and cardiovascular events up to 30 days were adjudicated by independent reviewers. In the validation cohort, 32.6% of the patients were ruled out on ED presentation, 6.1% were ruled in and 61.3% remained undetermined. A further 22% could be ruled out and 9.8% ruled in, after 2 hours. In total, 54.6% of the patients were ruled out with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.4% (95% CI 97.8% to 99.9%) and a sensitivity of 97.7% (95% CI 91.9% to 99.7%); 15.8% were ruled in with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 74.5% (95% CI 64.8% to 82.2%) and a specificity of 95.2% (95% CI 93.0% to 96.9%); and 29.6% remained undetermined after 2 hours. No patient in the rule-out group died during the 30-day follow-up in the two cohorts. This novel two-step algorithm based on cTnI measurements enabled just over a third of the patients with acute chest pain to be ruled in or ruled out already at presentation and an additional third after 2 hours. This strategy maximises the speed of rule-out and rule-in while maintaining a high NPV and PPV, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Sonographic Diagnosis of Tubal Cancer with IOTA Simple Rules Plus Pattern Recognition

PubMed Central

Tongsong, Theera; Wanapirak, Chanane; Tantipalakorn, Charuwan; Tinnangwattana, Dangcheewan

2017-01-01

Objective: To evaluate diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition in predicting tubal cancer. Methods: Secondary analysis was performed on prospective database of our IOTA project. The patients recruited in the project were those who were scheduled for pelvic surgery due to adnexal masses. The patients underwent ultrasound examinations within 24 hours before surgery. On ultrasound examination, the masses were evaluated using the well-established IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition (sausage-shaped appearance, incomplete septum, visible ipsilateral ovaries) to predict tubal cancer. The gold standard diagnosis was based on histological findings or operative findings. Results: A total of 482 patients, including 15 cases of tubal cancer, were evaluated by ultrasound preoperatively. The IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition gave a sensitivity of 86.7% (13 in 15) and specificity of 97.4%. Sausage-shaped appearance was identified in nearly all cases (14 in 15). Incomplete septa and normal ovaries could be identified in 33.3% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion: IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition is relatively effective in predicting tubal cancer. Thus, we propose the simple scheme in diagnosis of tubal cancer as follows. First of all, the adnexal masses are evaluated with IOTA simple rules. If the B-rules could be applied, tubal cancer is reliably excluded. If the M-rules could be applied or the result is inconclusive, careful delineation of the mass with pattern recognition should be performed. PMID:29172273

Sonographic Diagnosis of Tubal Cancer with IOTA Simple Rules Plus Pattern Recognition

PubMed

Tongsong, Theera; Wanapirak, Chanane; Tantipalakorn, Charuwan; Tinnangwattana, Dangcheewan

2017-11-26

Objective: To evaluate diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition in predicting tubal cancer. Methods: Secondary analysis was performed on prospective database of our IOTA project. The patients recruited in the project were those who were scheduled for pelvic surgery due to adnexal masses. The patients underwent ultrasound examinations within 24 hours before surgery. On ultrasound examination, the masses were evaluated using the well-established IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition (sausage-shaped appearance, incomplete septum, visible ipsilateral ovaries) to predict tubal cancer. The gold standard diagnosis was based on histological findings or operative findings. Results: A total of 482 patients, including 15 cases of tubal cancer, were evaluated by ultrasound preoperatively. The IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition gave a sensitivity of 86.7% (13 in 15) and specificity of 97.4%. Sausage-shaped appearance was identified in nearly all cases (14 in 15). Incomplete septa and normal ovaries could be identified in 33.3% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion: IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition is relatively effective in predicting tubal cancer. Thus, we propose the simple scheme in diagnosis of tubal cancer as follows. First of all, the adnexal masses are evaluated with IOTA simple rules. If the B-rules could be applied, tubal cancer is reliably excluded. If the M-rules could be applied or the result is inconclusive, careful delineation of the mass with pattern recognition should be performed. Creative Commons Attribution License

Tips for Teachers of Evidence-based Medicine: Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs) and Estimating Pretest Probability

PubMed Central

McGinn, Thomas; Jervis, Ramiro; Wisnivesky, Juan; Keitz, Sheri

2008-01-01

Background Clinical prediction rules (CPR) are tools that clinicians can use to predict the most likely diagnosis, prognosis, or response to treatment in a patient based on individual characteristics. CPRs attempt to standardize, simplify, and increase the accuracy of clinicians’ diagnostic and prognostic assessments. The teaching tips series is designed to give teachers advice and materials they can use to attain specific educational objectives. Educational Objectives In this article, we present 3 teaching tips aimed at helping clinical learners use clinical prediction rules and to more accurately assess pretest probability in every day practice. The first tip is designed to demonstrate variability in physician estimation of pretest probability. The second tip demonstrates how the estimate of pretest probability influences the interpretation of diagnostic tests and patient management. The third tip exposes learners to various examples and different types of Clinical Prediction Rules (CPR) and how to apply them in practice. Pilot Testing We field tested all 3 tips with 16 learners, a mix of interns and senior residents. Teacher preparatory time was approximately 2 hours. The field test utilized a board and a data projector; 3 handouts were prepared. The tips were felt to be clear and the educational objectives reached. Potential teaching pitfalls were identified. Conclusion Teaching with these tips will help physicians appreciate the importance of applying evidence to their every day decisions. In 2 or 3 short teaching sessions, clinicians can also become familiar with the use of CPRs in applying evidence consistently in everyday practice. PMID:18491194

Automatic learning of rules. A practical example of using artificial intelligence to improve computer-based detection of myocardial infarction and left ventricular hypertrophy in the 12-lead ECG.

PubMed

Kaiser, W; Faber, T S; Findeis, M

1996-01-01

The authors developed a computer program that detects myocardial infarction (MI) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in two steps: (1) by extracting parameter values from a 10-second, 12-lead electrocardiogram, and (2) by classifying the extracted parameter values with rule sets. Every disease has its dedicated set of rules. Hence, there are separate rule sets for anterior MI, inferior MI, and LVH. If at least one rule is satisfied, the disease is said to be detected. The computer program automatically develops these rule sets. A database (learning set) of healthy subjects and patients with MI, LVH, and mixed MI+LVH was used. After defining the rule type, initial limits, and expected quality of the rules (positive predictive value, minimum number of patients), the program creates a set of rules by varying the limits. The general rule type is defined as: disease = lim1l < p1 < or = lim1u and lim2l < p2 < or = lim2u and ... limnl < pn < or = limnu. When defining the rule types, only the parameters (p1 ... pn) that are known as clinical electrocardiographic criteria (amplitudes [mV] of Q, R, and T waves and ST-segment; duration [ms] of Q wave; frontal angle [degrees]) were used. This allowed for submitting the learned rule sets to an independent investigator for medical verification. It also allowed the creation of explanatory texts with the rules. These advantages are not offered by the neurons of a neural network. The learned rules were checked against a test set and the following results were obtained: MI: sensitivity 76.2%, positive predictive value 98.6%; LVH: sensitivity 72.3%, positive predictive value 90.9%. The specificity ratings for MI are better than 98%; for LVH, better than 90%.

The role of feedback contingency in perceptual category learning.

PubMed

Ashby, F Gregory; Vucovich, Lauren E

2016-11-01

Feedback is highly contingent on behavior if it eventually becomes easy to predict, and weakly contingent on behavior if it remains difficult or impossible to predict even after learning is complete. Many studies have demonstrated that humans and nonhuman animals are highly sensitive to feedback contingency, but no known studies have examined how feedback contingency affects category learning, and current theories assign little or no importance to this variable. Two experiments examined the effects of contingency degradation on rule-based and information-integration category learning. In rule-based tasks, optimal accuracy is possible with a simple explicit rule, whereas optimal accuracy in information-integration tasks requires integrating information from 2 or more incommensurable perceptual dimensions. In both experiments, participants each learned rule-based or information-integration categories under either high or low levels of feedback contingency. The exact same stimuli were used in all 4 conditions, and optimal accuracy was identical in every condition. Learning was good in both high-contingency conditions, but most participants showed little or no evidence of learning in either low-contingency condition. Possible causes of these effects, as well as their theoretical implications, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Role of Feedback Contingency in Perceptual Category Learning

PubMed Central

Ashby, F. Gregory; Vucovich, Lauren E.

2016-01-01

Feedback is highly contingent on behavior if it eventually becomes easy to predict, and weakly contingent on behavior if it remains difficult or impossible to predict even after learning is complete. Many studies have demonstrated that humans and nonhuman animals are highly sensitive to feedback contingency, but no known studies have examined how feedback contingency affects category learning, and current theories assign little or no importance to this variable. Two experiments examined the effects of contingency degradation on rule-based and information-integration category learning. In rule-based tasks, optimal accuracy is possible with a simple explicit rule, whereas optimal accuracy in information-integration tasks requires integrating information from two or more incommensurable perceptual dimensions. In both experiments, participants each learned rule-based or information-integration categories under either high or low levels of feedback contingency. The exact same stimuli were used in all four conditions and optimal accuracy was identical in every condition. Learning was good in both high-contingency conditions, but most participants showed little or no evidence of learning in either low-contingency condition. Possible causes of these effects are discussed, as well as their theoretical implications. PMID:27149393

The relevance of a rules-based maize marketing policy: an experimental case study of Zambia.

PubMed

Abbink, Klaus; Jayne, Thomas S; Moller, Lars C

2011-01-01

Strategic interaction between public and private actors is increasingly recognised as an important determinant of agricultural market performance in Africa and elsewhere. Trust and consultation tends to positively affect private activity while uncertainty of government behaviour impedes it. This paper reports on a laboratory experiment based on a stylised model of the Zambian maize market. The experiment facilitates a comparison between discretionary interventionism and a rules-based policy in which the government pre-commits itself to a future course of action. A simple precommitment rule can, in theory, overcome the prevailing strategic dilemma by encouraging private sector participation. Although this result is also borne out in the economic experiment, the improvement in private sector activity is surprisingly small and not statistically significant due to irrationally cautious choices by experimental governments. Encouragingly, a rules-based policy promotes a much more stable market outcome thereby substantially reducing the risk of severe food shortages. These results underscore the importance of predictable and transparent rules for the state's involvement in agricultural markets.

Multi-scale Modeling of the Impact Response of a Strain Rate Sensitive High-Manganese Austenitic Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Önal, Orkun; Ozmenci, Cemre; Canadinc, Demircan

2014-09-01

A multi-scale modeling approach was applied to predict the impact response of a strain rate sensitive high-manganese austenitic steel. The roles of texture, geometry and strain rate sensitivity were successfully taken into account all at once by coupling crystal plasticity and finite element (FE) analysis. Specifically, crystal plasticity was utilized to obtain the multi-axial flow rule at different strain rates based on the experimental deformation response under uniaxial tensile loading. The equivalent stress - equivalent strain response was then incorporated into the FE model for the sake of a more representative hardening rule under impact loading. The current results demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained by proper coupling of crystal plasticity and FE analysis even if the experimental flow rule of the material is acquired under uniaxial loading and at moderate strain rates that are significantly slower than those attained during impact loading. Furthermore, the current findings also demonstrate the need for an experiment-based multi-scale modeling approach for the sake of reliable predictions of the impact response.

Risk Reduction and Resource Pooling on a Cooperation Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pietras, Cynthia J.; Cherek, Don R.; Lane, Scott D.; Tcheremissine, Oleg

2006-01-01

Two experiments investigated choice in adult humans on a simulated cooperation task to evaluate a risk-reduction account of sharing based on the energy-budget rule. The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts risk-averse choices when net energy gains exceed energy requirements (positive energy budget) and risk-prone choices…

R package PRIMsrc: Bump Hunting by Patient Rule Induction Method for Survival, Regression and Classification

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

PRIMsrc is a novel implementation of a non-parametric bump hunting procedure, based on the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), offering a unified treatment of outcome variables, including censored time-to-event (Survival), continuous (Regression) and discrete (Classification) responses. To fit the model, it uses a recursive peeling procedure with specific peeling criteria and stopping rules depending on the response. To validate the model, it provides an objective function based on prediction-error or other specific statistic, as well as two alternative cross-validation techniques, adapted to the task of decision-rule making and estimation in the three types of settings. PRIMsrc comes as an open source R package, including at this point: (i) a main function for fitting a Survival Bump Hunting model with various options allowing cross-validated model selection to control model size (#covariates) and model complexity (#peeling steps) and generation of cross-validated end-point estimates; (ii) parallel computing; (iii) various S3-generic and specific plotting functions for data visualization, diagnostic, prediction, summary and display of results. It is available on CRAN and GitHub. PMID:26798326

Reconciled Rat and Human Metabolic Networks for Comparative Toxicogenomics and Biomarker Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-08

compared with the original human GPR rules (Supplementary Fig. 3). The consensus-based approach for filtering orthology annotations was designed to...ARTICLE Received 29 Jan 2016 | Accepted 13 Dec 2016 | Published 8 Feb 2017 Reconciled rat and human metabolic networks for comparative toxicogenomics...predictions in response to 76 drugs. We validate comparative predictions for xanthine derivatives with new experimental data and literature- based evidence

Split-Ring Springback Simulations with the Non-associated Flow Rule and Evolutionary Elastic-Plasticity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Choi, H. J.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, M. G.

2018-03-01

Finite element simulations and experiments for the split-ring test were conducted to investigate the effect of anisotropic constitutive models on the predictive capability of sheet springback. As an alternative to the commonly employed associated flow rule, a non-associated flow rule for Hill1948 yield function was implemented in the simulations. Moreover, the evolution of anisotropy with plastic deformation was efficiently modeled by identifying equivalent plastic strain-dependent anisotropic coefficients. Comparative study with different yield surfaces and elasticity models showed that the split-ring springback could be best predicted when the anisotropy in both the R value and yield stress, their evolution and variable apparent elastic modulus were taken into account in the simulations. Detailed analyses based on deformation paths superimposed on the anisotropic yield functions predicted by different constitutive models were provided to understand the complex springback response in the split-ring test.

Split-Ring Springback Simulations with the Non-associated Flow Rule and Evolutionary Elastic-Plasticity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Choi, H. J.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, M. G.

2018-06-01

Finite element simulations and experiments for the split-ring test were conducted to investigate the effect of anisotropic constitutive models on the predictive capability of sheet springback. As an alternative to the commonly employed associated flow rule, a non-associated flow rule for Hill1948 yield function was implemented in the simulations. Moreover, the evolution of anisotropy with plastic deformation was efficiently modeled by identifying equivalent plastic strain-dependent anisotropic coefficients. Comparative study with different yield surfaces and elasticity models showed that the split-ring springback could be best predicted when the anisotropy in both the R value and yield stress, their evolution and variable apparent elastic modulus were taken into account in the simulations. Detailed analyses based on deformation paths superimposed on the anisotropic yield functions predicted by different constitutive models were provided to understand the complex springback response in the split-ring test.

Logical Differential Prediction Bayes Net, improving breast cancer diagnosis for older women.

PubMed

Nassif, Houssam; Wu, Yirong; Page, David; Burnside, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Overdiagnosis is a phenomenon in which screening identities cancer which may not go on to cause symptoms or death. Women over 65 who develop breast cancer bear the heaviest burden of overdiagnosis. This work introduces novel machine learning algorithms to improve diagnostic accuracy of breast cancer in aging populations. At the same time, we aim at minimizing unnecessary invasive procedures (thus decreasing false positives) and concomitantly addressing overdiagnosis. We develop a novel algorithm. Logical Differential Prediction Bayes Net (LDP-BN), that calculates the risk of breast disease based on mammography findings. LDP-BN uses Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) to learn relational rules, selects older-specific differentially predictive rules, and incorporates them into a Bayes Net, significantly improving its performance. In addition, LDP-BN offers valuable insight into the classification process, revealing novel older-specific rules that link mass presence to invasive, and calcification presence and lack of detectable mass to DCIS.

Rule-Mining for the Early Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease Based on Metabolomics and Multi-Source Data

PubMed Central

Luck, Margaux; Bertho, Gildas; Bateson, Mathilde; Karras, Alexandre; Yartseva, Anastasia; Thervet, Eric

2016-01-01

1H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based metabolic profiling is very promising for the diagnostic of the stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Because of the high dimension of NMR spectra datasets and the complex mixture of metabolites in biological samples, the identification of discriminant biomarkers of a disease is challenging. None of the widely used chemometric methods in NMR metabolomics performs a local exhaustive exploration of the data. We developed a descriptive and easily understandable approach that searches for discriminant local phenomena using an original exhaustive rule-mining algorithm in order to predict two groups of patients: 1) patients having low to mild CKD stages with no renal failure and 2) patients having moderate to established CKD stages with renal failure. Our predictive algorithm explores the m-dimensional variable space to capture the local overdensities of the two groups of patients under the form of easily interpretable rules. Afterwards, a L2-penalized logistic regression on the discriminant rules was used to build predictive models of the CKD stages. We explored a complex multi-source dataset that included the clinical, demographic, clinical chemistry, renal pathology and urine metabolomic data of a cohort of 110 patients. Given this multi-source dataset and the complex nature of metabolomic data, we analyzed 1- and 2-dimensional rules in order to integrate the information carried by the interactions between the variables. The results indicated that our local algorithm is a valuable analytical method for the precise characterization of multivariate CKD stage profiles and as efficient as the classical global model using chi2 variable section with an approximately 70% of good classification level. The resulting predictive models predominantly identify urinary metabolites (such as 3-hydroxyisovalerate, carnitine, citrate, dimethylsulfone, creatinine and N-methylnicotinamide) as relevant variables indicating that CKD significantly affects the urinary metabolome. In addition, the simple knowledge of the concentration of urinary metabolites classifies the CKD stage of the patients correctly. PMID:27861591

Prediction of High-Grade Vesicoureteral Reflux after Pediatric Urinary Tract Infection: External Validation Study of Procalcitonin-Based Decision Rule

PubMed Central

Leroy, Sandrine; Bouissou, François; Fernandez-Lopez, Anna; Gurgoze, Metin K.; Karavanaki, Kyriaki; Ulinski, Tim; Bressan, Silvia; Vaos, Geogios; Leblond, Pierre; Coulais, Yvon; Cubells, Carlos Luaces; Aygun, A. Denizmen; Stefanidis, Constantinos J.; Bensman, Albert; DaDalt, Liviana; Gardikis, Stefanos; Bigot, Sandra; Gendrel, Dominique; Bréart, Gérard; Chalumeau, Martin

2011-01-01

Background Predicting vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR) ≥3 at the time of the first urinary tract infection (UTI) would make it possible to restrict cystography to high-risk children. We previously derived the following clinical decision rule for that purpose: cystography should be performed in cases with ureteral dilation and a serum procalcitonin level ≥0.17 ng/mL, or without ureteral dilatation when the serum procalcitonin level ≥0.63 ng/mL. The rule yielded a 86% sensitivity with a 46% specificity. We aimed to test its reproducibility. Study Design A secondary analysis of prospective series of children with a first UTI. The rule was applied, and predictive ability was calculated. Results The study included 413 patients (157 boys, VUR ≥3 in 11%) from eight centers in five countries. The rule offered a 46% specificity (95% CI, 41–52), not different from the one in the derivation study. However, the sensitivity significantly decreased to 64% (95%CI, 50–76), leading to a difference of 20% (95%CI, 17–36). In all, 16 (34%) patients among the 47 with VUR ≥3 were misdiagnosed by the rule. This lack of reproducibility might result primarily from a difference between derivation and validation populations regarding inflammatory parameters (CRP, PCT); the validation set samples may have been collected earlier than for the derivation one. Conclusions The rule built to predict VUR ≥3 had a stable specificity (ie. 46%), but a decreased sensitivity (ie. 64%) because of the time variability of PCT measurement. Some refinement may be warranted. PMID:22216314

Misalignment Effect Function Measurement for Oblique Rotation Axes: Counterintuitive Predictions and Theoretical Extensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, Stephen R.; Adelstein, Bernard D.; Yeom, Kiwon

2013-01-01

The Misalignment Effect Function (MEF) describes the decrement in manual performance associated with a rotation between operators' visual display frame of reference and that of their manual control. It now has been empirically determined for rotation axes oblique to canonical body axes and is compared with the MEF previously measured for rotations about canonical axes. A targeting rule, called the Secant Rule, based on these earlier measurements is derived from a hypothetical process and shown to describe some of the data from three previous experiments. It explains the motion trajectories determined for rotations less than 65deg in purely kinematic terms without the need to appeal to a mental rotation process. Further analysis of this rule in three dimensions applied to oblique rotation axes leads to a somewhat surprising expectation that the difficulty posed by rotational misalignment should get harder as the required movement is shorter. This prediction is confirmed. Geometry underlying this rule also suggests analytic extensions for predicting more generally the difficulty of making movements in arbitrary directions subject to arbitrary misalignments.

Use of an expert system data analysis manager for space shuttle main engine test evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernethy, Ken

1988-01-01

The ability to articulate, collect, and automate the application of the expertise needed for the analysis of space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data would be of great benefit to NASA liquid rocket engine experts. This paper describes a project whose goal is to build a rule-based expert system which incorporates such expertise. Experiential expertise, collected directly from the experts currently involved in SSME data analysis, is used to build a rule base to identify engine anomalies similar to those analyzed previously. Additionally, an alternate method of expertise capture is being explored. This method would generate rules inductively based on calculations made using a theoretical model of the SSME's operation. The latter rules would be capable of diagnosing anomalies which may not have appeared before, but whose effects can be predicted by the theoretical model.

A Model-Based Approach to Predicting Graduate-Level Performance Using Indicators of Undergraduate-Level Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmermann, Judith; Brodersen, Kay H.; Heinimann, Hans R.; Buhmann, Joachim M.

2015-01-01

The graduate admissions process is crucial for controlling the quality of higher education, yet, rules-of-thumb and domain-specific experiences often dominate evidence-based approaches. The goal of the present study is to dissect the predictive power of undergraduate performance indicators and their aggregates. We analyze 81 variables in 171…

Prospective Validation of Optimal Drain Management "The 3 × 3 Rule" after Liver Resection.

PubMed

Mitsuka, Yusuke; Yamazaki, Shintaro; Yoshida, Nao; Masamichi, Moriguchi; Higaki, Tokio; Takayama, Tadatoshi

2016-09-01

We previously established an optimal postoperative drain management rule after liver resection (i.e., drain removal on postoperative day 3 if the drain fluid bilirubin concentration is <3 mg/dl) from the results of 514 drains of 316 consecutive patients. This test set predicts that 274 of 316 patients (87.0 %) will be safely managed without adverse events when drain management is performed without deviation from the rule. To validate the feasibility of our rule in recent time period. The data from 493 drains of 274 consecutive patients were prospectively collected. Drain fluid volumes, bilirubin levels, and bacteriological cultures were measured on postoperative days (POD) 1, 3, 5, and 7. The drains were removed according to the management rule. The achievement rate of the rule, postoperative adverse events, hospital stay, medical costs, and predictive value for reoperation according to the rule were validated. The rule was achieved in 255 of 274 (93.1 %) patients. The drain removal time was significantly shorter [3 days (1-30) vs. 7 (2-105), p < 0.01], drain fluid infection was less frequent [4 patients (1.5 %) vs. 58 (18.4 %), p < 0.01], postoperative hospital stay was shorter [11 days (6-73) vs. 16 (9-59), p = 0.04], and medical costs were decreased [1453 USD (968-6859) vs. 1847 (4667-9498), p < 0.01] in the validation set compared with the test set. Five patients who required reoperation were predicted by the drain-based information and treated within 2 days after operation. Our 3 × 3 rule is clinically feasible and allows for the early removal of the drain tube with minimum infection risk after liver resection.

The Role of Scoring Systems and Urine Dipstick in Prediction of Rhabdomyolysis-induced Acute Kidney Injury: a Systematic Review.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Hashemi, Behrooz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Najafi, Iraj

2016-05-01

During the past decade, using serum biomarkers and clinical decision rules for early prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) has received much attention from researchers. This study aimed to broadly review the value of scoring systems and urine dipstick in prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced AKI. The study was designed based on the guidelines of the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology statement. Search was done in electronic databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Google Scholar by 2 independent reviewers. Studies evaluating AKI risk factors in rhabdomyolysis patients with the aim of developing a scoring model as well as those assessing the role of urine dipstick in these patients were included. Of the 5997 articles found, 143 were potentially relevant studies. After studying their full texts, 6 articles were entered into the systematic review. Two studies had developed or validated scoring systems of the "rule of thumb," and the AKI index, and the Mangled Extremity Severity Score. Four studies were on the predictive value of urine dipstick in risk prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced AKI, with favorable results. The findings of this systematic review showed that based on the available resources, using the prediction rules and urine dipstick could be considered as valuable screening tools for detection of patients at risk for AKI following rhabdomyolysis. Yet, the external validity of the mentioned tools should be assessed before their general application in routine practice.

Using electronic data to predict the probability of true bacteremia from positive blood cultures.

PubMed

Wang, S J; Kuperman, G J; Ohno-Machado, L; Onderdonk, A; Sandige, H; Bates, D W

2000-01-01

As part of a project to help physicians make more appropriate treatment decisions, we implemented a clinical prediction rule that computes the probability of true bacteremia for positive blood cultures and displays this information when culture results are viewed online. Prior to implementing the rule, we performed a revalidation study to verify the accuracy of the previously published logistic regression model. We randomly selected 114 cases of positive blood cultures from a recent one-year period and performed a paper chart review with the help of infectious disease experts to determine whether the cultures were true positives or contaminants. Based on the results of this revalidation study, we updated the probabilities reported by the model and made additional enhancements to improve the accuracy of the rule. Next, we implemented the rule into our hospital's laboratory computer system so that the probability information was displayed with all positive blood culture results. We displayed the prediction rule information on approximately half of the 2184 positive blood cultures at our hospital that were randomly selected during a 6-month period. During the study, we surveyed 54 housestaff to obtain their opinions about the usefulness of this intervention. Fifty percent (27/54) indicated that the information had influenced their belief of the probability of bacteremia in their patients, and in 28% (15/54) of cases it changed their treatment decision. Almost all (98% (53/54)) indicated that they wanted to continue receiving this information. We conclude that the probability information provided by this clinical prediction rule is considered useful to physicians when making treatment decisions.

Category Learning Strategies in Younger and Older Adults: Rule Abstraction and Memorization

PubMed Central

Wahlheim, Christopher N.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Little, Jeri L.

2016-01-01

Despite the fundamental role of category learning in cognition, few studies have examined how this ability differs between younger and older adults. The present experiment examined possible age differences in category learning strategies and their effects on learning. Participants were trained on a category determined by a disjunctive rule applied to relational features. The utilization of rule- and exemplar-based strategies was indexed by self-reports and transfer performance. Based on self-reported strategies, both age groups had comparable frequencies of rule- and exemplar-based learners, but older adults had a higher frequency of intermediate learners (i.e., learners not identifying with a reliance on either rule- or exemplar-based strategies). Training performance was higher for younger than older adults regardless of the strategy utilized, showing that older adults were impaired in their ability to learn the correct rule or to remember exemplar-label associations. Transfer performance converged with strategy reports in showing higher fidelity category representations for younger adults. Younger adults with high working memory capacity were more likely to use an exemplar-based strategy, and older adults with high working memory capacity showed better training performance. Age groups did not differ in their self-reported memory beliefs, and these beliefs did not predict training strategies or performance. Overall, the present results contradict earlier findings that older adults prefer rule- to exemplar-based learning strategies, presumably to compensate for memory deficits. PMID:26950225

Learning accurate and interpretable models based on regularized random forests regression

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many biology related research works combine data from multiple sources in an effort to understand the underlying problems. It is important to find and interpret the most important information from these sources. Thus it will be beneficial to have an effective algorithm that can simultaneously extract decision rules and select critical features for good interpretation while preserving the prediction performance. Methods In this study, we focus on regression problems for biological data where target outcomes are continuous. In general, models constructed from linear regression approaches are relatively easy to interpret. However, many practical biological applications are nonlinear in essence where we can hardly find a direct linear relationship between input and output. Nonlinear regression techniques can reveal nonlinear relationship of data, but are generally hard for human to interpret. We propose a rule based regression algorithm that uses 1-norm regularized random forests. The proposed approach simultaneously extracts a small number of rules from generated random forests and eliminates unimportant features. Results We tested the approach on some biological data sets. The proposed approach is able to construct a significantly smaller set of regression rules using a subset of attributes while achieving prediction performance comparable to that of random forests regression. Conclusion It demonstrates high potential in aiding prediction and interpretation of nonlinear relationships of the subject being studied. PMID:25350120

Predicting the duration of sickness absence for patients with common mental disorders in occupational health care.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Verbeek, Jos H A M; de Boer, Angela G E M; Blonk, Roland W B; van Dijk, Frank J H

2006-02-01

This study attempted to determine the factors that best predict the duration of absence from work among employees with common mental disorders. A cohort of 188 employees, of whom 102 were teachers, on sick leave with common mental disorders was followed for 1 year. Only information potentially available to the occupational physician during a first consultation was included in the predictive model. The predictive power of the variables was tested using Cox's regression analysis with a stepwise backward selection procedure. The hazard ratios (HR) from the final model were used to deduce a simple prediction rule. The resulting prognostic scores were then used to predict the probability of not returning to work after 3, 6, and 12 months. Calculating the area under the curve from the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve tested the discriminative ability of the prediction rule. The final Cox's regression model produced the following four predictors of a longer time until return to work: age older than 50 years [HR 0.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.3-0.8], expectation of duration absence longer than 3 months (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), higher educational level (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8), and diagnosis depression or anxiety disorder (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4-0.9). The resulting prognostic score yielded areas under the curves ranging from 0.68 to 0.73, which represent acceptable discrimination of the rule. A prediction rule based on four simple variables can be used by occupational physicians to identify unfavorable cases and to predict the duration of sickness absence.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Comparison of rule induction, decision trees and formal concept analysis approaches for classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotelnikov, E. V.; Milov, V. R.

2018-05-01

Rule-based learning algorithms have higher transparency and easiness to interpret in comparison with neural networks and deep learning algorithms. These properties make it possible to effectively use such algorithms to solve descriptive tasks of data mining. The choice of an algorithm depends also on its ability to solve predictive tasks. The article compares the quality of the solution of the problems with binary and multiclass classification based on the experiments with six datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The authors investigate three algorithms: Ripper (rule induction), C4.5 (decision trees), In-Close (formal concept analysis). The results of the experiments show that In-Close demonstrates the best quality of classification in comparison with Ripper and C4.5, however the latter two generate more compact rule sets.

A Simplified Micromechanical Modeling Approach to Predict the Tensile Flow Curve Behavior of Dual-Phase Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanda, Tarun; Kumar, B. Ravi; Singh, Vishal

2017-11-01

Micromechanical modeling is used to predict material's tensile flow curve behavior based on microstructural characteristics. This research develops a simplified micromechanical modeling approach for predicting flow curve behavior of dual-phase steels. The existing literature reports on two broad approaches for determining tensile flow curve of these steels. The modeling approach developed in this work attempts to overcome specific limitations of the existing two approaches. This approach combines dislocation-based strain-hardening method with rule of mixtures. In the first step of modeling, `dislocation-based strain-hardening method' was employed to predict tensile behavior of individual phases of ferrite and martensite. In the second step, the individual flow curves were combined using `rule of mixtures,' to obtain the composite dual-phase flow behavior. To check accuracy of proposed model, four distinct dual-phase microstructures comprising of different ferrite grain size, martensite fraction, and carbon content in martensite were processed by annealing experiments. The true stress-strain curves for various microstructures were predicted with the newly developed micromechanical model. The results of micromechanical model matched closely with those of actual tensile tests. Thus, this micromechanical modeling approach can be used to predict and optimize the tensile flow behavior of dual-phase steels.

Structure-activity relationships and prediction of the phototoxicity and phototoxic potential of new drugs.

PubMed

Barratt, Martin D

2004-11-01

Relationships between the structure and properties of chemicals can be programmed into knowledge-based systems such as DEREK for Windows (DEREK is an acronym for "Deductive Estimation of Risk from Existing Knowledge"). The DEREK for Windows computer system contains a subset of over 60 rules describing chemical substructures (toxophores) responsible for skin sensitisation. As part of the European Phototox Project, the rule base was supplemented by a number of rules for the prospective identification of photoallergens, either by extension of the scope of existing rules or by the generation of new rules where a sound mechanistic rationale for the biological activity could be established. The scope of the rules for photoallergenicity was then further refined by assessment against a list of chemicals identified as photosensitisers by the Centro de Farmacovigilancia de la Comunidad Valenciana, Valencia, Spain. This paper contains an analysis of the mechanistic bases of activity for eight important groups of photoallergens and phototoxins, together with rules for the prospective identification of the photobiological activity of new or untested chemicals belonging to those classes. The mechanism of action of one additional chemical, nitrofurantoin, is well established; however, it was deemed inappropriate to write a rule on the basis of a single chemical structure.

When More of A Doesn't Result in More of B: Physics Experiments with a Surprising Outcome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsakmaki, Paraskevi; Koumaras, Panagiotis

2016-01-01

Science education research has shown that students use causal reasoning, particularly the model "agent--instrument--object," to explain or predict the outcome of many natural situations. Students' reasoning seems to be based on a small set of few intuitive rules. One of these rules quantitatively correlates the outcome of an experiment…

The ethical implications of Paul Meehl's work on comparing clinical versus actuarial prediction methods.

PubMed

Dawes, Robyn M

2005-10-01

Paul E. Meehl's work comparing statistical versus actuarial prediction-and the large body of research that followed by others on the same topic-was mainly theoretical and empirical. Meehl also suggested that this work led to a "practical" conclusion, which was quite strong. The author argues that, in addition, it leads to an ethical conclusion, equally strong. Whether the scientific findings are combined with an overarching ethical principle that the best predictions possible should be made for clients, or whether these findings are framed as delineating what can be done for clients-and that clinicians ought not to attempt to do what they cannot-the conclusion is the same. Whenever statistical prediction rules (SPR's) are available for making a relevant prediction, they should be used in preference to intuition. Any modification of these rules should be systematic and subject to the same type of evaluation originally used to assess the SPR's themselves. It is even possible to develop near-optimal rules in new situations. Providing service that assumes that clinicians "can do better" simply based on self-confidence or plausibility in the absence of evidence that they can actually do so is simply unethical. 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

H, Vathsala; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

2017-10-01

This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969-2005).

Antecedents and consequences of emotional display rule perceptions.

PubMed

Diefendorff, James M; Richard, Erin M

2003-04-01

Central to all theories of emotional labor is the idea that individuals follow emotional display rules that specify the appropriate expression of emotions on the job. This investigation examined antecedents and consequences of emotional display rule perceptions. Full-time working adults (N = 152) from a variety of occupations provided self-report data, and supervisors and coworkers completed measures pertaining to the focal employees. Results using structural equation modeling revealed that job-based interpersonal requirements, supervisor display rule perceptions, and employee extraversion and neuroticism were predictive of employee display rule perceptions. Employee display rule perceptions, in turn, were related to self-reported job satisfaction and coworker ratings of employees' emotional displays on the job. Finally, neuroticism had direct negative relationships with job satisfaction and coworker ratings of employees' emotional displays.

Runoff as a factor in USLE/RUSLE technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnell, Peter

2014-05-01

Modelling erosion for prediction purposes started with the development of the Universal Soil Loss Equation the focus of which was the prediction of long term (~20) average annul soil loss from field sized areas. That purpose has been maintained in the subsequent revision RUSLE, the most widely used erosion prediction model in the world. The lack of ability to predict short term soil loss saw the development of so-called process based models like WEPP and EUROSEM which focussed on predicting event erosion but failed to improve the prediction of long term erosion where the RUSLE worked well. One of the features of erosion recognised in the so-called process based modes is the fact that runoff is a primary factor in rainfall erosion and some modifications of USLE/RUSLE model have been proposed have included runoff as in independent factor in determining event erosivity. However, these models have ignored fundamental mathematical rules. The USLE-M which replaces the EI30 index by the product of the runoff ratio and EI30 was developed from the concept that soil loss is the product of runoff and sediment concentration and operates in a way that obeys the mathematical rules upon which the USLE/RUSLE model was based. In accounts for event soil loss better that the EI30 index where runoff values are known or predicted adequately. RUSLE2 now includes a capacity to model runoff driven erosion.

Clinical prediction rule for suspected scaphoid fractures: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rhemrev, S J; Beeres, F J P; van Leerdam, R H; Hogervorst, M; Ring, D

2010-10-01

The low prevalence of true fractures amongst suspected fractures magnifies the shortcomings of the diagnostic tests used to triage suspected scaphoid fractures. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule that would yield a subset of patients who were more likely to have a scaphoid fracture than others who lacked the subset criteria. Seventy-eight consecutive patients diagnosed with a suspected scaphoid fracture were included. Standardised patient history, physical examination, range of motion (ROM) and strength measurements were studied. The reference standard for a true fracture was based on the results of magnetic resonance imaging, bone scintigraphy, follow-up radiographs and examination. Analysis revealed three significant independent predictors: extension <50%, supination strength ≤ 10% and the presence of a previous fracture. Clinical prediction rules have the potential to increase the prevalence of true fractures amongst patients with suspected scaphoid fractures, which can increase the diagnostic performance characteristics of radiological diagnostic tests used for triage. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A validation study of a clinical prediction rule for screening asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections among heterosexuals in British Columbia.

PubMed

Falasinnu, Titilola; Gilbert, Mark; Gustafson, Paul; Shoveller, Jean

2016-02-01

One component of effective sexually transmitted infections (STIs) control is ensuring those at highest risk of STIs have access to clinical services because terminating transmission in this group will prevent most future cases. Here, we describe the results of a validation study of a clinical prediction rule for identifying individuals at increased risk for chlamydia and gonorrhoea infection derived in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC), against a population of asymptomatic patients attending sexual health clinics in other geographical settings in BC. We examined electronic records (2000-2012) from clinic visits at seven sexual health clinics in geographical locations outside Vancouver. The model's calibration and discrimination were examined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic, respectively. We also examined the sensitivity and proportion of patients that would need to be screened at different cut-offs of the risk score. The prevalence of infection was 5.3% (n=10 425) in the geographical validation population. The prediction rule showed good performance in this population (AUC, 0.69; H-L p=0.26). Possible risk scores ranged from -2 to 27. We identified a risk score cut-off point of ≥8 that detected cases with a sensitivity of 86% by screening 63% of the geographical validation population. The prediction rule showed good generalisability in STI clinics outside of Vancouver with improved discriminative performance compared with temporal validation. The prediction rule has the potential for augmenting triaging services in STI clinics and enhancing targeted testing in population-based screening programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study.

PubMed

Ban, Jong-Wook; Emparanza, José Ignacio; Urreta, Iratxe; Burls, Amanda

2016-01-01

Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules' performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics. Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described. A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively. Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved.

Predicting Debris-Slide Locations in Northwestern California

Treesearch

Mark E. Reid; Stephen D. Ellen; Dianne L. Brien; Juan de la Fuente; James N. Falls; Billie G. Hicks; Eric C. Johnson

2007-01-01

We tested four topographic models for predicting locations of debris-slide sources: 1) slope; 2) proximity to stream; 3) SHALSTAB with "standard" parameters; and 4) debris-slide-prone landforms, which delineates areas similar to "inner gorge" and "headwall swale" using experience-based rules. These approaches were compared in three diverse...

Phonological Concept Learning.

PubMed

Moreton, Elliott; Pater, Joe; Pertsova, Katya

2017-01-01

Linguistic and non-linguistic pattern learning have been studied separately, but we argue for a comparative approach. Analogous inductive problems arise in phonological and visual pattern learning. Evidence from three experiments shows that human learners can solve them in analogous ways, and that human performance in both cases can be captured by the same models. We test GMECCS (Gradual Maximum Entropy with a Conjunctive Constraint Schema), an implementation of the Configural Cue Model (Gluck & Bower, ) in a Maximum Entropy phonotactic-learning framework (Goldwater & Johnson, ; Hayes & Wilson, ) with a single free parameter, against the alternative hypothesis that learners seek featurally simple algebraic rules ("rule-seeking"). We study the full typology of patterns introduced by Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins () ("SHJ"), instantiated as both phonotactic patterns and visual analogs, using unsupervised training. Unlike SHJ, Experiments 1 and 2 found that both phonotactic and visual patterns that depended on fewer features could be more difficult than those that depended on more features, as predicted by GMECCS but not by rule-seeking. GMECCS also correctly predicted performance differences between stimulus subclasses within each pattern. A third experiment tried supervised training (which can facilitate rule-seeking in visual learning) to elicit simple rule-seeking phonotactic learning, but cue-based behavior persisted. We conclude that similar cue-based cognitive processes are available for phonological and visual concept learning, and hence that studying either kind of learning can lead to significant insights about the other. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Ali, Rahman; Hussain, Jamil; Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Hussain, Maqbool; Lee, Sungyoung

2015-07-03

Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body's resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1) restricted one type of diabetes; (2) lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3) limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4) lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient's data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM) that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST) based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies.

H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Ali, Rahman; Hussain, Jamil; Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Hussain, Maqbool; Lee, Sungyoung

2015-01-01

Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body’s resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1) restricted one type of diabetes; (2) lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3) limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4) lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient’s data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM) that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST) based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies. PMID:26151207

[Usefulness of clinical prediction rules for ruling out deep vein thrombosis in a hospital emergency department].

PubMed

Rosa-Jiménez, Francisco; Rosa-Jiménez, Ascensión; Lozano-Rodríguez, Aquiles; Santoro-Martínez, María Del Carmen; Duro-López, María Del Carmen; Carreras-Álvarez de Cienfuegos, Amelia

2015-01-01

To compare the efficacy of the most familiar clinical prediction rules in combination with D-dimer testing to rule out a diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in a hospital emergency department. Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of the case records of all patients attending a hospital emergency department with suspected lower-limb DVT between 1998 and 2002. Ten clinical prediction scores were calculated and D-dimer levels were available for all patients. The gold standard was ultrasound diagnosis of DVT by an independent radiologist who was blinded to clinical records. For each prediction rule, we analyzed the effectiveness of the prediction strategy defined by "low clinical probability and negative D-dimer level" against the ultrasound diagnosis. A total of 861 case records were reviewed and 577 cases were selected; the mean (SD) age was 66.7 (14.2) years. DVT was diagnosed in 145 patients (25.1%). Only the Wells clinical prediction rule and 4 other models had a false negative rate under 2%. The Wells criteria and the score published by Johanning and colleagues identified higher percentages of cases (15.6% and 11.6%, respectively). This study shows that several clinical prediction rules can be safely used in the emergency department, although none of them have proven more effective than the Wells criteria.

Effective Design of Multifunctional Peptides by Combining Compatible Functions

PubMed Central

Diener, Christian; Garza Ramos Martínez, Georgina; Moreno Blas, Daniel; Castillo González, David A.; Corzo, Gerardo; Castro-Obregon, Susana; Del Rio, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Multifunctionality is a common trait of many natural proteins and peptides, yet the rules to generate such multifunctionality remain unclear. We propose that the rules defining some protein/peptide functions are compatible. To explore this hypothesis, we trained a computational method to predict cell-penetrating peptides at the sequence level and learned that antimicrobial peptides and DNA-binding proteins are compatible with the rules of our predictor. Based on this finding, we expected that designing peptides for CPP activity may render AMP and DNA-binding activities. To test this prediction, we designed peptides that embedded two independent functional domains (nuclear localization and yeast pheromone activity), linked by optimizing their composition to fit the rules characterizing cell-penetrating peptides. These peptides presented effective cell penetration, DNA-binding, pheromone and antimicrobial activities, thus confirming the effectiveness of our computational approach to design multifunctional peptides with potential therapeutic uses. Our computational implementation is available at http://bis.ifc.unam.mx/en/software/dcf. PMID:27096600

Prediction of linear B-cell epitopes of hepatitis C virus for vaccine development

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background High genetic heterogeneity in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the major challenge of the development of an effective vaccine. Existing studies for developing HCV vaccines have mainly focused on T-cell immune response. However, identification of linear B-cell epitopes that can stimulate B-cell response is one of the major tasks of peptide-based vaccine development. Owing to the variability in B-cell epitope length, the prediction of B-cell epitopes is much more complex than that of T-cell epitopes. Furthermore, the motifs of linear B-cell epitopes in different pathogens are quite different (e. g. HCV and hepatitis B virus). To cope with this challenge, this work aims to propose an HCV-customized sequence-based prediction method to identify B-cell epitopes of HCV. Results This work establishes an experimentally verified dataset comprising the B-cell response of HCV dataset consisting of 774 linear B-cell epitopes and 774 non B-cell epitopes from the Immune Epitope Database. An interpretable rule mining system of B-cell epitopes (IRMS-BE) is proposed to select informative physicochemical properties (PCPs) and then extracts several if-then rule-based knowledge for identifying B-cell epitopes. A web server Bcell-HCV was implemented using an SVM with the 34 informative PCPs, which achieved a training accuracy of 79.7% and test accuracy of 70.7% better than the SVM-based methods for identifying B-cell epitopes of HCV and the two general-purpose methods. This work performs advanced analysis of the 34 informative properties, and the results indicate that the most effective property is the alpha-helix structure of epitopes, which influences the connection between host cells and the E2 proteins of HCV. Furthermore, 12 interpretable rules are acquired from top-five PCPs and achieve a sensitivity of 75.6% and specificity of 71.3%. Finally, a conserved promising vaccine candidate, PDREMVLYQE, is identified for inclusion in a vaccine against HCV. Conclusions This work proposes an interpretable rule mining system IRMS-BE for extracting interpretable rules using informative physicochemical properties and a web server Bcell-HCV for predicting linear B-cell epitopes of HCV. IRMS-BE may also apply to predict B-cell epitopes for other viruses, which benefits the improvement of vaccines development of these viruses without significant modification. Bcell-HCV is useful for identifying B-cell epitopes of HCV antigen to help vaccine development, which is available at http://e045.life.nctu.edu.tw/BcellHCV. PMID:26680271

Prediction of genotoxic potential of cosmetic ingredients by an in silico battery system consisting of a combination of an expert rule-based system and a statistics-based system.

PubMed

Aiba née Kaneko, Maki; Hirota, Morihiko; Kouzuki, Hirokazu; Mori, Masaaki

2015-02-01

Genotoxicity is the most commonly used endpoint to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) M7 Guideline on Assessment and Control of DNA Reactive (Mutagenic) Impurities in Pharmaceuticals to Limit Potential Carcinogenic Risk offers guidance on (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) methodologies that predict the outcome of bacterial mutagenicity assay for actual and potential impurities. We examined the effectiveness of the (Q)SAR approach with the combination of DEREK NEXUS as an expert rule-based system and ADMEWorks as a statistics-based system for the prediction of not only mutagenic potential in the Ames test, but also genotoxic potential in mutagenicity and clastogenicity tests, using a data set of 342 chemicals extracted from the literature. The prediction of mutagenic potential or genotoxic potential by DEREK NEXUS or ADMEWorks showed high values of sensitivity and concordance, while prediction by the combination of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks (battery system) showed the highest values of sensitivity and concordance among the three methods, but the lowest value of specificity. The number of false negatives was reduced with the battery system. We also separately predicted the mutagenic potential and genotoxic potential of 41 cosmetic ingredients listed in the International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) among the 342 chemicals. Although specificity was low with the battery system, sensitivity and concordance were high. These results suggest that the battery system consisting of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks is useful for prediction of genotoxic potential of chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients.

Rules of co-occurring mutations characterize the antigenic evolution of human influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and B viruses.

PubMed

Chen, Haifen; Zhou, Xinrui; Zheng, Jie; Kwoh, Chee-Keong

2016-12-05

The human influenza viruses undergo rapid evolution (especially in hemagglutinin (HA), a glycoprotein on the surface of the virus), which enables the virus population to constantly evade the human immune system. Therefore, the vaccine has to be updated every year to stay effective. There is a need to characterize the evolution of influenza viruses for better selection of vaccine candidates and the prediction of pandemic strains. Studies have shown that the influenza hemagglutinin evolution is driven by the simultaneous mutations at antigenic sites. Here, we analyze simultaneous or co-occurring mutations in the HA protein of human influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and B viruses to predict potential mutations, characterizing the antigenic evolution. We obtain the rules of mutation co-occurrence using association rule mining after extracting HA1 sequences and detect co-mutation sites under strong selective pressure. Then we predict the potential drifts with specific mutations of the viruses based on the rules and compare the results with the "observed" mutations in different years. The sites under frequent mutations are in antigenic regions (epitopes) or receptor binding sites. Our study demonstrates the co-occurring site mutations obtained by rule mining can capture the evolution of influenza viruses, and confirms that cooperative interactions among sites of HA1 protein drive the influenza antigenic evolution.

The Role of Age and Executive Function in Auditory Category Learning

PubMed Central

Reetzke, Rachel; Maddox, W. Todd; Chandrasekaran, Bharath

2015-01-01

Auditory categorization is a natural and adaptive process that allows for the organization of high-dimensional, continuous acoustic information into discrete representations. Studies in the visual domain have identified a rule-based learning system that learns and reasons via a hypothesis-testing process that requires working memory and executive attention. The rule-based learning system in vision shows a protracted development, reflecting the influence of maturing prefrontal function on visual categorization. The aim of the current study is two-fold: (a) to examine the developmental trajectory of rule-based auditory category learning from childhood through adolescence, into early adulthood; and (b) to examine the extent to which individual differences in rule-based category learning relate to individual differences in executive function. Sixty participants with normal hearing, 20 children (age range, 7–12), 21 adolescents (age range, 13–19), and 19 young adults (age range, 20–23), learned to categorize novel dynamic ripple sounds using trial-by-trial feedback. The spectrotemporally modulated ripple sounds are considered the auditory equivalent of the well-studied Gabor patches in the visual domain. Results revealed that auditory categorization accuracy improved with age, with young adults outperforming children and adolescents. Computational modeling analyses indicated that the use of the task-optimal strategy (i.e. a conjunctive rule-based learning strategy) improved with age. Notably, individual differences in executive flexibility significantly predicted auditory category learning success. The current findings demonstrate a protracted development of rule-based auditory categorization. The results further suggest that executive flexibility coupled with perceptual processes play important roles in successful rule-based auditory category learning. PMID:26491987

A generalization of Hamilton's rule--love others how much?

PubMed

Alger, Ingela; Weibull, Jörgen W

2012-04-21

According to Hamilton's (1964a, b) rule, a costly action will be undertaken if its fitness cost to the actor falls short of the discounted benefit to the recipient, where the discount factor is Wright's index of relatedness between the two. We propose a generalization of this rule, and show that if evolution operates at the level of behavior rules, rather than directly at the level of actions, evolution will select behavior rules that induce a degree of cooperation that may differ from that predicted by Hamilton's rule as applied to actions. In social dilemmas there will be less (more) cooperation than under Hamilton's rule if the actions are strategic substitutes (complements). Our approach is based on natural selection, defined in terms of personal (direct) fitness, and applies to a wide range of pairwise interactions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method and knowledge base for automated inference of patient problems from structured data in an electronic medical record.

PubMed

Wright, Adam; Pang, Justine; Feblowitz, Joshua C; Maloney, Francine L; Wilcox, Allison R; Ramelson, Harley Z; Schneider, Louise I; Bates, David W

2011-01-01

Accurate knowledge of a patient's medical problems is critical for clinical decision making, quality measurement, research, billing and clinical decision support. Common structured sources of problem information include the patient problem list and billing data; however, these sources are often inaccurate or incomplete. To develop and validate methods of automatically inferring patient problems from clinical and billing data, and to provide a knowledge base for inferring problems. We identified 17 target conditions and designed and validated a set of rules for identifying patient problems based on medications, laboratory results, billing codes, and vital signs. A panel of physicians provided input on a preliminary set of rules. Based on this input, we tested candidate rules on a sample of 100,000 patient records to assess their performance compared to gold standard manual chart review. The physician panel selected a final rule for each condition, which was validated on an independent sample of 100,000 records to assess its accuracy. Seventeen rules were developed for inferring patient problems. Analysis using a validation set of 100,000 randomly selected patients showed high sensitivity (range: 62.8-100.0%) and positive predictive value (range: 79.8-99.6%) for most rules. Overall, the inference rules performed better than using either the problem list or billing data alone. We developed and validated a set of rules for inferring patient problems. These rules have a variety of applications, including clinical decision support, care improvement, augmentation of the problem list, and identification of patients for research cohorts.

Amino Acid Distribution Rules Predict Protein Fold: Protein Grammar for Beta-Strand Sandwich-Like Structures

PubMed Central

Kister, Alexander

2015-01-01

We present an alternative approach to protein 3D folding prediction based on determination of rules that specify distribution of “favorable” residues, that are mainly responsible for a given fold formation, and “unfavorable” residues, that are incompatible with that fold, in polypeptide sequences. The process of determining favorable and unfavorable residues is iterative. The starting assumptions are based on the general principles of protein structure formation as well as structural features peculiar to a protein fold under investigation. The initial assumptions are tested one-by-one for a set of all known proteins with a given structure. The assumption is accepted as a “rule of amino acid distribution” for the protein fold if it holds true for all, or near all, structures. If the assumption is not accepted as a rule, it can be modified to better fit the data and then tested again in the next step of the iterative search algorithm, or rejected. We determined the set of amino acid distribution rules for a large group of beta sandwich-like proteins characterized by a specific arrangement of strands in two beta sheets. It was shown that this set of rules is highly sensitive (~90%) and very specific (~99%) for identifying sequences of proteins with specified beta sandwich fold structure. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it does not require that query proteins have a high degree of homology to proteins with known structure. So long as the query protein satisfies residue distribution rules, it can be confidently assigned to its respective protein fold. Another advantage of our approach is that it allows for a better understanding of which residues play an essential role in protein fold formation. It may, therefore, facilitate rational protein engineering design. PMID:25625198

An expert system for prediction of aquatic toxicity of contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickey, James P.; Aldridge, Andrew J.; Passino, Dora R. May; Frank, Anthony M.; Hushon, Judith M.

1990-01-01

The National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes has developed an interactive computer program in muLISP that runs on an IBM-compatible microcomputer and uses a linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) to predict acute toxicity to four representative aquatic species from the detailed structure of an organic molecule. Using the SMILES formalism for a chemical structure, the expert system identifies all structural components and uses a knowledge base of rules based on an LSER to generate four structure-related parameter values. A separate module then relates these values to toxicity. The system is designed for rapid screening of potential chemical hazards before laboratory or field investigations are conducted and can be operated by users with little toxicological background. This is the first expert system based on LSER, relying on the first comprehensive compilation of rules and values for the estimation of LSER parameters.

Link prediction based on local community properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xu-Hua; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Ling, Fei; Cheng, Zhi; Weng, Guo-Qing; Huang, Yu-Jiao

2016-09-01

The link prediction algorithm is one of the key technologies to reveal the inherent rule of network evolution. This paper proposes a novel link prediction algorithm based on the properties of the local community, which is composed of the common neighbor nodes of any two nodes in the network and the links between these nodes. By referring to the node degree and the condition of assortativity or disassortativity in a network, we comprehensively consider the effect of the shortest path and edge clustering coefficient within the local community on node similarity. We numerically show the proposed method provide good link prediction results.

Category learning strategies in younger and older adults: Rule abstraction and memorization.

PubMed

Wahlheim, Christopher N; McDaniel, Mark A; Little, Jeri L

2016-06-01

Despite the fundamental role of category learning in cognition, few studies have examined how this ability differs between younger and older adults. The present experiment examined possible age differences in category learning strategies and their effects on learning. Participants were trained on a category determined by a disjunctive rule applied to relational features. The utilization of rule- and exemplar-based strategies was indexed by self-reports and transfer performance. Based on self-reported strategies, the frequencies of rule- and exemplar-based learners were not significantly different between age groups, but there was a significantly higher frequency of intermediate learners (i.e., learners not identifying with a reliance on either rule- or exemplar-based strategies) in the older than younger adult group. Training performance was higher for younger than older adults regardless of the strategy utilized, showing that older adults were impaired in their ability to learn the correct rule or to remember exemplar-label associations. Transfer performance converged with strategy reports in showing higher fidelity category representations for younger adults. Younger adults with high working memory capacity were more likely to use an exemplar-based strategy, and older adults with high working memory capacity showed better training performance. Age groups did not differ in their self-reported memory beliefs, and these beliefs did not predict training strategies or performance. Overall, the present results contradict earlier findings that older adults prefer rule- to exemplar-based learning strategies, presumably to compensate for memory deficits. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU): protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule.

PubMed

Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Krag, Mette; Hjortrup, Peter Buhl; Haase, Nicolai; Holst, Lars Broksø; Marker, Søren; Collet, Marie Oxenbøll; Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg; Møller, Morten Hylander

2017-03-09

Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores. We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Estrogen receptor expert system overview and examples

EPA Science Inventory

The estrogen receptor expert system (ERES) is a rule-based system developed to prioritize chemicals based upon their potential for binding to the ER. The ERES was initially developed to predict ER affinity of chemicals from two specific EPA chemical inventories, antimicrobial pe...

Predicting Individual Fuel Economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Zhenhong; Greene, David L

2011-01-01

To make informed decisions about travel and vehicle purchase, consumers need unbiased and accurate information of the fuel economy they will actually obtain. In the past, the EPA fuel economy estimates based on its 1984 rules have been widely criticized for overestimating on-road fuel economy. In 2008, EPA adopted a new estimation rule. This study compares the usefulness of the EPA's 1984 and 2008 estimates based on their prediction bias and accuracy and attempts to improve the prediction of on-road fuel economies based on consumer and vehicle attributes. We examine the usefulness of the EPA fuel economy estimates using amore » large sample of self-reported on-road fuel economy data and develop an Individualized Model for more accurately predicting an individual driver's on-road fuel economy based on easily determined vehicle and driver attributes. Accuracy rather than bias appears to have limited the usefulness of the EPA 1984 estimates in predicting on-road MPG. The EPA 2008 estimates appear to be equally inaccurate and substantially more biased relative to the self-reported data. Furthermore, the 2008 estimates exhibit an underestimation bias that increases with increasing fuel economy, suggesting that the new numbers will tend to underestimate the real-world benefits of fuel economy and emissions standards. By including several simple driver and vehicle attributes, the Individualized Model reduces the unexplained variance by over 55% and the standard error by 33% based on an independent test sample. The additional explanatory variables can be easily provided by the individuals.« less

Knowledge-based grouping of modeled HLA peptide complexes.

PubMed

Kangueane, P; Sakharkar, M K; Lim, K S; Hao, H; Lin, K; Chee, R E; Kolatkar, P R

2000-05-01

Human leukocyte antigens are the most polymorphic of human genes and multiple sequence alignment shows that such polymorphisms are clustered in the functional peptide binding domains. Because of such polymorphism among the peptide binding residues, the prediction of peptides that bind to specific HLA molecules is very difficult. In recent years two different types of computer based prediction methods have been developed and both the methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. The nonavailability of allele specific binding data restricts the use of knowledge-based prediction methods for a wide range of HLA alleles. Alternatively, the modeling scheme appears to be a promising predictive tool for the selection of peptides that bind to specific HLA molecules. The scoring of the modeled HLA-peptide complexes is a major concern. The use of knowledge based rules (van der Waals clashes and solvent exposed hydrophobic residues) to distinguish binders from nonbinders is applied in the present study. The rules based on (1) number of observed atomic clashes between the modeled peptide and the HLA structure, and (2) number of solvent exposed hydrophobic residues on the modeled peptide effectively discriminate experimentally known binders from poor/nonbinders. Solved crystal complexes show no vdW Clash (vdWC) in 95% cases and no solvent exposed hydrophobic peptide residues (SEHPR) were seen in 86% cases. In our attempt to compare experimental binding data with the predicted scores by this scoring scheme, 77% of the peptides are correctly grouped as good binders with a sensitivity of 71%.

Reasoning and Knowledge Acquisition Framework for 5G Network Analytics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Autonomic self-management is a key challenge for next-generation networks. This paper proposes an automated analysis framework to infer knowledge in 5G networks with the aim to understand the network status and to predict potential situations that might disrupt the network operability. The framework is based on the Endsley situational awareness model, and integrates automated capabilities for metrics discovery, pattern recognition, prediction techniques and rule-based reasoning to infer anomalous situations in the current operational context. Those situations should then be mitigated, either proactive or reactively, by a more complex decision-making process. The framework is driven by a use case methodology, where the network administrator is able to customize the knowledge inference rules and operational parameters. The proposal has also been instantiated to prove its adaptability to a real use case. To this end, a reference network traffic dataset was used to identify suspicious patterns and to predict the behavior of the monitored data volume. The preliminary results suggest a good level of accuracy on the inference of anomalous traffic volumes based on a simple configuration. PMID:29065473

Reasoning and Knowledge Acquisition Framework for 5G Network Analytics.

PubMed

Sotelo Monge, Marco Antonio; Maestre Vidal, Jorge; García Villalba, Luis Javier

2017-10-21

Autonomic self-management is a key challenge for next-generation networks. This paper proposes an automated analysis framework to infer knowledge in 5G networks with the aim to understand the network status and to predict potential situations that might disrupt the network operability. The framework is based on the Endsley situational awareness model, and integrates automated capabilities for metrics discovery, pattern recognition, prediction techniques and rule-based reasoning to infer anomalous situations in the current operational context. Those situations should then be mitigated, either proactive or reactively, by a more complex decision-making process. The framework is driven by a use case methodology, where the network administrator is able to customize the knowledge inference rules and operational parameters. The proposal has also been instantiated to prove its adaptability to a real use case. To this end, a reference network traffic dataset was used to identify suspicious patterns and to predict the behavior of the monitored data volume. The preliminary results suggest a good level of accuracy on the inference of anomalous traffic volumes based on a simple configuration.

Biochemical interpretation of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) for biodegradation of N-heterocycles: a complementary approach to predict biodegradability.

PubMed

Philipp, Bodo; Hoff, Malte; Germa, Florence; Schink, Bernhard; Beimborn, Dieter; Mersch-Sundermann, Volker

2007-02-15

Prediction of the biodegradability of organic compounds is an ecologically desirable and economically feasible tool for estimating the environmental fate of chemicals. We combined quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) with the systematic collection of biochemical knowledge to establish rules for the prediction of aerobic biodegradation of N-heterocycles. Validated biodegradation data of 194 N-heterocyclic compounds were analyzed using the MULTICASE-method which delivered two QSAR models based on 17 activating (OSAR 1) and on 16 inactivating molecular fragments (GSAR 2), which were statistically significantly linked to efficient or poor biodegradability, respectively. The percentages of correct classifications were over 99% for both models, and cross-validation resulted in 67.9% (GSAR 1) and 70.4% (OSAR 2) correct predictions. Biochemical interpretation of the activating and inactivating characteristics of the molecular fragments delivered plausible mechanistic interpretations and enabled us to establish the following biodegradation rules: (1) Target sites for amidohydrolases and for cytochrome P450 monooxygenases enhance biodegradation of nonaromatic N-heterocycles. (2) Target sites for molybdenum hydroxylases enhance biodegradation of aromatic N-heterocycles. (3) Target sites for hydratation by an urocanase-like mechanism enhance biodegradation of imidazoles. Our complementary approach represents a feasible strategy for generating concrete rules for the prediction of biodegradability of organic compounds.

Simulation Of Combat With An Expert System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Provenzano, J. P.

1989-01-01

Proposed expert system predicts outcomes of combat situations. Called "COBRA", combat outcome based on rules for attrition, system selects rules for mathematical modeling of losses and discrete events in combat according to previous experiences. Used with another software module known as the "Game". Game/COBRA software system, consisting of Game and COBRA modules, provides for both quantitative aspects and qualitative aspects in simulations of battles. COBRA intended for simulation of large-scale military exercises, concepts embodied in it have much broader applicability. In industrial research, knowledge-based system enables qualitative as well as quantitative simulations.

A Machine Learning Recommender System to Tailor Preference Assessments to Enhance Person-Centered Care Among Nursing Home Residents.

PubMed

Gannod, Gerald C; Abbott, Katherine M; Van Haitsma, Kimberly; Martindale, Nathan; Heppner, Alexandra

2018-05-21

Nursing homes (NHs) using the Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory (PELI-NH) to assess important preferences and provide person-centered care find the number of items (72) to be a barrier to using the assessment. Using a sample of n = 255 NH resident responses to the PELI-NH, we used the 16 preference items from the MDS 3.0 Section F to develop a machine learning recommender system to identify additional PELI-NH items that may be important to specific residents. Much like the Netflix recommender system, our system is based on the concept of collaborative filtering whereby insights and predictions (e.g., filters) are created using the interests and preferences of many users. The algorithm identifies multiple sets of "you might also like" patterns called association rules, based upon responses to the 16 MDS preferences that recommends an additional set of preferences with a high likelihood of being important to a specific resident. In the evaluation of the combined apriori and logistic regression approach, we obtained a high recall performance (i.e., the ratio of correctly predicted preferences compared with all predicted preferences and nonpreferences) and high precision (i.e., the ratio of correctly predicted rules with respect to the rules predicted to be true) of 80.2% and 79.2%, respectively. The recommender system successfully provides guidance on how to best tailor the preference items asked of residents and can support preference capture in busy clinical environments, contributing to the feasibility of delivering person-centered care.

Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

PubMed Central

Ban, Jong-Wook; Emparanza, José Ignacio; Urreta, Iratxe; Burls, Amanda

2016-01-01

Background Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules’ performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics. Methods Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described. Results A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2–4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively. Conclusion Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved. PMID:26730980

Analysis of mesenchymal stem cell differentiation in vitro using classification association rule mining.

PubMed

Wang, Weiqi; Wang, Yanbo Justin; Bañares-Alcántara, René; Coenen, Frans; Cui, Zhanfeng

2009-12-01

In this paper, data mining is used to analyze the data on the differentiation of mammalian Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSCs), aiming at discovering known and hidden rules governing MSC differentiation, following the establishment of a web-based public database containing experimental data on the MSC proliferation and differentiation. To this effect, a web-based public interactive database comprising the key parameters which influence the fate and destiny of mammalian MSCs has been constructed and analyzed using Classification Association Rule Mining (CARM) as a data-mining technique. The results show that the proposed approach is technically feasible and performs well with respect to the accuracy of (classification) prediction. Key rules mined from the constructed MSC database are consistent with experimental observations, indicating the validity of the method developed and the first step in the application of data mining to the study of MSCs.

Model-assisted template extraction SRAF application to contact holes patterns in high-end flash memory device fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seoud, Ahmed; Kim, Juhwan; Ma, Yuansheng; Jayaram, Srividya; Hong, Le; Chae, Gyu-Yeol; Lee, Jeong-Woo; Park, Dae-Jin; Yune, Hyoung-Soon; Oh, Se-Young; Park, Chan-Ha

2018-03-01

Sub-resolution assist feature (SRAF) insertion techniques have been effectively used for a long time now to increase process latitude in the lithography patterning process. Rule-based SRAF and model-based SRAF are complementary solutions, and each has its own benefits, depending on the objectives of applications and the criticality of the impact on manufacturing yield, efficiency, and productivity. Rule-based SRAF provides superior geometric output consistency and faster runtime performance, but the associated recipe development time can be of concern. Model-based SRAF provides better coverage for more complicated pattern structures in terms of shapes and sizes, with considerably less time required for recipe development, although consistency and performance may be impacted. In this paper, we introduce a new model-assisted template extraction (MATE) SRAF solution, which employs decision tree learning in a model-based solution to provide the benefits of both rule-based and model-based SRAF insertion approaches. The MATE solution is designed to automate the creation of rules/templates for SRAF insertion, and is based on the SRAF placement predicted by model-based solutions. The MATE SRAF recipe provides optimum lithographic quality in relation to various manufacturing aspects in a very short time, compared to traditional methods of rule optimization. Experiments were done using memory device pattern layouts to compare the MATE solution to existing model-based SRAF and pixelated SRAF approaches, based on lithographic process window quality, runtime performance, and geometric output consistency.

A Bayesian Scoring Technique for Mining Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules

PubMed Central

Batal, Iyad; Cooper, Gregory; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-01-01

Rule mining is an important class of data mining methods for discovering interesting patterns in data. The success of a rule mining method heavily depends on the evaluation function that is used to assess the quality of the rules. In this work, we propose a new rule evaluation score - the Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules (PNSR) score. This score relies on Bayesian inference to evaluate the quality of the rules and considers the structure of the rules to filter out spurious rules. We present an efficient algorithm for finding rules with high PNSR scores. The experiments demonstrate that our method is able to cover and explain the data with a much smaller rule set than existing methods. PMID:25938136

A Bayesian Scoring Technique for Mining Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules.

PubMed

Batal, Iyad; Cooper, Gregory; Hauskrecht, Milos

Rule mining is an important class of data mining methods for discovering interesting patterns in data. The success of a rule mining method heavily depends on the evaluation function that is used to assess the quality of the rules. In this work, we propose a new rule evaluation score - the Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules (PNSR) score. This score relies on Bayesian inference to evaluate the quality of the rules and considers the structure of the rules to filter out spurious rules. We present an efficient algorithm for finding rules with high PNSR scores. The experiments demonstrate that our method is able to cover and explain the data with a much smaller rule set than existing methods.

A dislocation-based, strain–gradient–plasticity strengthening model for deformation processed metal–metal composites

DOE PAGES

Tian, Liang; Russell, Alan; Anderson, Iver

2014-01-03

Deformation processed metal–metal composites (DMMCs) are high-strength, high-electrical conductivity composites developed by severe plastic deformation of two ductile metal phases. The extraordinarily high strength of DMMCs is underestimated using the rule of mixture (or volumetric weighted average) of conventionally work-hardened metals. A dislocation-density-based, strain–gradient–plasticity model is proposed to relate the strain-gradient effect with the geometrically necessary dislocations emanating from the interface to better predict the strength of DMMCs. The model prediction was compared with our experimental findings of Cu–Nb, Cu–Ta, and Al–Ti DMMC systems to verify the applicability of the new model. The results show that this model predicts themore » strength of DMMCs better than the rule-of-mixture model. The strain-gradient effect, responsible for the exceptionally high strength of heavily cold worked DMMCs, is dominant at large deformation strain since its characteristic microstructure length is comparable with the intrinsic material length.« less

hERG blocking potential of acids and zwitterions characterized by three thresholds for acidity, size and reactivity.

PubMed

Nikolov, Nikolai G; Dybdahl, Marianne; Jónsdóttir, Svava Ó; Wedebye, Eva B

2014-11-01

Ionization is a key factor in hERG K(+) channel blocking, and acids and zwitterions are known to be less probable hERG blockers than bases and neutral compounds. However, a considerable number of acidic compounds block hERG, and the physico-chemical attributes which discriminate acidic blockers from acidic non-blockers have not been fully elucidated. We propose a rule for prediction of hERG blocking by acids and zwitterionic ampholytes based on thresholds for only three descriptors related to acidity, size and reactivity. The training set of 153 acids and zwitterionic ampholytes was predicted with a concordance of 91% by a decision tree based on the rule. Two external validations were performed with sets of 35 and 48 observations, respectively, both showing concordances of 91%. In addition, a global QSAR model of hERG blocking was constructed based on a large diverse training set of 1374 chemicals covering all ionization classes, externally validated showing high predictivity and compared to the decision tree. The decision tree was found to be superior for the acids and zwitterionic ampholytes classes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic algorithm.

PubMed

Bao, Ying; Lei, Weimin; Zhang, Wei; Zhan, Yuzhuo

2016-01-01

At present, to realize or improve the quality of experience (QoE) is a major goal for network media transmission service, and QoE evaluation is the basis for adjusting the transmission control mechanism. Therefore, a kind of QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic algorithm is proposed in this paper, which is concentrated on service score calculation at the server side. The server side collects network transmission quality of service (QoS) parameter, node location data, and user expectation value from client feedback information. Then it manages the historical data in database through the "big data" process mode, and predicts user score according to heuristic rules. On this basis, it completes fuzzy clustering analysis, and generates service QoE score and management message, which will be finally fed back to clients. Besides, this paper mainly discussed service evaluation generative rules, heuristic evaluation rules and fuzzy clustering analysis methods, and presents service-based QoE evaluation processes. The simulation experiments have verified the effectiveness of QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic rules.

Fuzzy association rule mining and classification for the prediction of malaria in South Korea.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Guven, Erhan; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Babin, Steven M; Lewis, Sheri H

2015-06-18

Malaria is the world's most prevalent vector-borne disease. Accurate prediction of malaria outbreaks may lead to public health interventions that mitigate disease morbidity and mortality. We describe an application of a method for creating prediction models utilizing Fuzzy Association Rule Mining to extract relationships between epidemiological, meteorological, climatic, and socio-economic data from Korea. These relationships are in the form of rules, from which the best set of rules is automatically chosen and forms a classifier. Two classifiers have been built and their results fused to become a malaria prediction model. Future malaria cases are predicted as Low, Medium or High, where these classes are defined as a total of 0-2, 3-16, and above 17 cases, respectively, for a region in South Korea during a two-week period. Based on user recommendations, HIGH is considered an outbreak. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Sensitivity, and F-score for each class, computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. For predictions made 7-8 weeks in advance, model PPV and Sensitivity are 0.842 and 0.681, respectively, for the HIGH classes. The F0.5 and F3 scores (which combine PPV and Sensitivity) are 0.804 and 0.694, respectively, for the HIGH classes. The overall FARM results (as measured by F-scores) are significantly better than those obtained by Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Holt-Winters methods for the HIGH class. For the Medium class, Random Forest and FARM obtain comparable results, with FARM being better at F0.5, and Random Forest obtaining a higher F3. A previously described method for creating disease prediction models has been modified and extended to build models for predicting malaria. In addition, some new input variables were used, including indicators of intervention measures. The South Korea malaria prediction models predict Low, Medium or High cases 7-8 weeks in the future. This paper demonstrates that our data driven approach can be used for the prediction of different diseases.

A method and knowledge base for automated inference of patient problems from structured data in an electronic medical record

PubMed Central

Pang, Justine; Feblowitz, Joshua C; Maloney, Francine L; Wilcox, Allison R; Ramelson, Harley Z; Schneider, Louise I; Bates, David W

2011-01-01

Background Accurate knowledge of a patient's medical problems is critical for clinical decision making, quality measurement, research, billing and clinical decision support. Common structured sources of problem information include the patient problem list and billing data; however, these sources are often inaccurate or incomplete. Objective To develop and validate methods of automatically inferring patient problems from clinical and billing data, and to provide a knowledge base for inferring problems. Study design and methods We identified 17 target conditions and designed and validated a set of rules for identifying patient problems based on medications, laboratory results, billing codes, and vital signs. A panel of physicians provided input on a preliminary set of rules. Based on this input, we tested candidate rules on a sample of 100 000 patient records to assess their performance compared to gold standard manual chart review. The physician panel selected a final rule for each condition, which was validated on an independent sample of 100 000 records to assess its accuracy. Results Seventeen rules were developed for inferring patient problems. Analysis using a validation set of 100 000 randomly selected patients showed high sensitivity (range: 62.8–100.0%) and positive predictive value (range: 79.8–99.6%) for most rules. Overall, the inference rules performed better than using either the problem list or billing data alone. Conclusion We developed and validated a set of rules for inferring patient problems. These rules have a variety of applications, including clinical decision support, care improvement, augmentation of the problem list, and identification of patients for research cohorts. PMID:21613643

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Appropriateness guidelines and predictive rules to select patients for upper endoscopy: a nationwide multicenter study.

PubMed

Buri, Luigi; Hassan, Cesare; Bersani, Gianluca; Anti, Marcello; Bianco, Maria Antonietta; Cipolletta, Livio; Di Giulio, Emilio; Di Matteo, Giovanni; Familiari, Luigi; Ficano, Leonardo; Loriga, Pietro; Morini, Sergio; Pietropaolo, Vincenzo; Zambelli, Alessandro; Grossi, Enzo; Intraligi, Marco; Buscema, Massimo

2010-06-01

Selecting patients appropriately for upper endoscopy (EGD) is crucial for efficient use of endoscopy. The objective of this study was to compare different clinical strategies and statistical methods to select patients for EGD, namely appropriateness guidelines, age and/or alarm features, and multivariate and artificial neural network (ANN) models. A nationwide, multicenter, prospective study was undertaken in which consecutive patients referred for EGD during a 1-month period were enrolled. Before EGD, the endoscopist assessed referral appropriateness according to the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines, also collecting clinical and demographic variables. Outcomes of the study were detection of relevant findings and new diagnosis of malignancy at EGD. The accuracy of the following clinical strategies and predictive rules was compared: (i) ASGE appropriateness guidelines (indicated vs. not indicated), (ii) simplified rule (>or=45 years or alarm features vs. <45 years without alarm features), (iii) logistic regression model, and (iv) ANN models. A total of 8,252 patients were enrolled in 57 centers. Overall, 3,803 (46%) relevant findings and 132 (1.6%) new malignancies were detected. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the simplified rule were similar to that of the ASGE guidelines for both relevant findings (82%/26%/0.55 vs. 88%/27%/0.52) and cancer (97%/22%/0.58 vs. 98%/20%/0.58). Both logistic regression and ANN models seemed to be substantially more accurate in predicting new cases of malignancy, with an AUC of 0.82 and 0.87, respectively. A simple predictive rule based on age and alarm features is similarly effective to the more complex ASGE guidelines in selecting patients for EGD. Regression and ANN models may be useful in identifying a relatively small subgroup of patients at higher risk of cancer.

USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

Foraging Ecology Predicts Learning Performance in Insectivorous Bats

PubMed Central

Clarin, Theresa M. A.; Ruczyński, Ireneusz; Page, Rachel A.

2013-01-01

Bats are unusual among mammals in showing great ecological diversity even among closely related species and are thus well suited for studies of adaptation to the ecological background. Here we investigate whether behavioral flexibility and simple- and complex-rule learning performance can be predicted by foraging ecology. We predict faster learning and higher flexibility in animals hunting in more complex, variable environments than in animals hunting in more simple, stable environments. To test this hypothesis, we studied three closely related insectivorous European bat species of the genus Myotis that belong to three different functional groups based on foraging habitats: M. capaccinii, an open water forager, M. myotis, a passive listening gleaner, and M. emarginatus, a clutter specialist. We predicted that M. capaccinii would show the least flexibility and slowest learning reflecting its relatively unstructured foraging habitat and the stereotypy of its natural foraging behavior, while the other two species would show greater flexibility and more rapid learning reflecting the complexity of their natural foraging tasks. We used a purposefully unnatural and thus species-fair crawling maze to test simple- and complex-rule learning, flexibility and re-learning performance. We found that M. capaccinii learned a simple rule as fast as the other species, but was slower in complex rule learning and was less flexible in response to changes in reward location. We found no differences in re-learning ability among species. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that animals’ cognitive skills reflect the demands of their ecological niche. PMID:23755146

The Rule of Five for Non-Oral Routes of Drug Delivery: Ophthalmic, Inhalation and Transdermal

PubMed Central

Choy, Young Bin; Prausnitz, Mark R.

2011-01-01

The Rule of Five predicts suitability of drug candidates, but was developed primarily using orally administered drugs. Here, we test whether the Rule of Five predicts drugs for delivery via non-oral routes, specifically ophthalmic, inhalation and transdermal. We assessed 111 drugs approved by FDA for those routes of administration and found that >98% of current non-oral drugs have physicochemical properties within the limits of the Rule of Five. However, given the inherent bias in the dataset, this analysis was not able to assess whether drugs with properties outside those limits are poor candidates. Indeed, further analysis indicates that drugs well outside the Rule of Five limits, including hydrophilic macromolecules, can be delivered by inhalation. In contrast, drugs currently administered across skin fall within more stringent limits than predicted by the Rule of Five, but new transdermal delivery technologies may make these constraints obsolete by dramatically increasing skin permeability. The Rule of Five does appear to apply well to ophthalmic delivery. We conclude that although current non-oral drugs mostly have physicochemical properties within the Rule of Five thresholds, the Rule of Five should not be used to predict non-oral drug candidates, especially for inhalation and transdermal routes. PMID:20967491

Termination of Resuscitation Rules to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest for an Intermediate Life Support Prehospital System.

PubMed

Cheong, Randy Wang Long; Li, Huihua; Doctor, Nausheen Edwin; Ng, Yih Yng; Goh, E Shaun; Leong, Benjamin Sieu-Hon; Gan, Han Nee; Foo, David; Tham, Lai Peng; Charles, Rabind; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

2016-01-01

Futile resuscitation can lead to unnecessary transports for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). The Basic Life Support (BLS) and Advanced Life Support (ALS) termination of resuscitation (TOR) guidelines have been validated with good results in North America. This study aims to evaluate the performance of these two rules in predicting neurological outcomes of OHCA patients in Singapore, which has an intermediate life support Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system. A retrospective cohort study was carried out on Singapore OHCA data collected from April 2010 to May 2012 for the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS). The outcomes of each rule were compared to the actual neurological outcomes of the patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and predicted transport rates of each test were evaluated. A total of 2,193 patients had cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. TOR was recommended for 1,411 patients with the BLS-TOR rule, with a specificity of 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.7, 100.0), sensitivity 65.7% (63.6, 67.7), NPV 5.6% (4.1, 7.5), and transportation rate 35.6%. Using the ALS-TOR rule, TOR was recommended for 587 patients, specificity 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.4, 100.0), sensitivity 27.3% (25.4, 29.3), NPV 2.7% (2.0, 3.7), and transportation rate 73.2%. BLS-TOR predicted survival (any neurological outcome) with specificity 93.4% (95% CI 85.3, 97.8) versus ALS-TOR 98.7% (95% CI 92.9, 99.8). Both the BLS and ALS-TOR rules had high specificities and PPV values in predicting neurological outcomes, the BLS-TOR rule had a lower predicted transport rate while the ALS-TOR rule was more accurate in predicting futility of resuscitation. Further research into unique local cultural issues would be useful to evaluate the feasibility of any system-wide implementation of TOR.

Empirical Observations on the Sensitivity of Hot Cathode Ionization Type Vacuum Gages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summers, R. L.

1969-01-01

A study of empirical methods of predicting tile relative sensitivities of hot cathode ionization gages is presented. Using previously published gage sensitivities, several rules for predicting relative sensitivity are tested. The relative sensitivity to different gases is shown to be invariant with gage type, in the linear range of gage operation. The total ionization cross section, molecular and molar polarizability, and refractive index are demonstrated to be useful parameters for predicting relative gage sensitivity. Using data from the literature, the probable error of predictions of relative gage sensitivity based on these molecular properties is found to be about 10 percent. A comprehensive table of predicted relative sensitivities, based on empirical methods, is presented.

Evaluation of in silico tools to predict the skin sensitization potential of chemicals.

PubMed

Verheyen, G R; Braeken, E; Van Deun, K; Van Miert, S

2017-01-01

Public domain and commercial in silico tools were compared for their performance in predicting the skin sensitization potential of chemicals. The packages were either statistical based (Vega, CASE Ultra) or rule based (OECD Toolbox, Toxtree, Derek Nexus). In practice, several of these in silico tools are used in gap filling and read-across, but here their use was limited to make predictions based on presence/absence of structural features associated to sensitization. The top 400 ranking substances of the ATSDR 2011 Priority List of Hazardous Substances were selected as a starting point. Experimental information was identified for 160 chemically diverse substances (82 positive and 78 negative). The prediction for skin sensitization potential was compared with the experimental data. Rule-based tools perform slightly better, with accuracies ranging from 0.6 (OECD Toolbox) to 0.78 (Derek Nexus), compared with statistical tools that had accuracies ranging from 0.48 (Vega) to 0.73 (CASE Ultra - LLNA weak model). Combining models increased the performance, with positive and negative predictive values up to 80% and 84%, respectively. However, the number of substances that were predicted positive or negative for skin sensitization in both models was low. Adding more substances to the dataset will increase the confidence in the conclusions reached. The insights obtained in this evaluation are incorporated in a web database www.asopus.weebly.com that provides a potential end user context for the scope and performance of different in silico tools with respect to a common dataset of curated skin sensitization data.

Machine Learning to Improve the Effectiveness of ANRS in Predicting HIV Drug Resistance.

PubMed

Singh, Yashik

2017-10-01

Human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is one of the major burdens of disease in developing countries, and the standard-of-care treatment includes prescribing antiretroviral drugs. However, antiretroviral drug resistance is inevitable due to selective pressure associated with the high mutation rate of HIV. Determining antiretroviral resistance can be done by phenotypic laboratory tests or by computer-based interpretation algorithms. Computer-based algorithms have been shown to have many advantages over laboratory tests. The ANRS (Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA) is regarded as a gold standard in interpreting HIV drug resistance using mutations in genomes. The aim of this study was to improve the prediction of the ANRS gold standard in predicting HIV drug resistance. A genome sequence and HIV drug resistance measures were obtained from the Stanford HIV database (http://hivdb.stanford.edu/). Feature selection was used to determine the most important mutations associated with resistance prediction. These mutations were added to the ANRS rules, and the difference in the prediction ability was measured. This study uncovered important mutations that were not associated with the original ANRS rules. On average, the ANRS algorithm was improved by 79% ± 6.6%. The positive predictive value improved by 28%, and the negative predicative value improved by 10%. The study shows that there is a significant improvement in the prediction ability of ANRS gold standard.

An object programming based environment for protein secondary structure prediction.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Ruggiero, C; Sacile, R

1996-01-01

The most frequently used methods for protein secondary structure prediction are empirical statistical methods and rule based methods. A consensus system based on object-oriented programming is presented, which integrates the two approaches with the aim of improving the prediction quality. This system uses an object-oriented knowledge representation based on the concepts of conformation, residue and protein, where the conformation class is the basis, the residue class derives from it and the protein class derives from the residue class. The system has been tested with satisfactory results on several proteins of the Brookhaven Protein Data Bank. Its results have been compared with the results of the most widely used prediction methods, and they show a higher prediction capability and greater stability. Moreover, the system itself provides an index of the reliability of its current prediction. This system can also be regarded as a basis structure for programs of this kind.

Predicting the stability of nanodevices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z. Z.; Yu, W. F.; Wang, Y.; Ning, X. J.

2011-05-01

A simple model based on the statistics of single atoms is developed to predict the stability or lifetime of nanodevices without empirical parameters. Under certain conditions, the model produces the Arrhenius law and the Meyer-Neldel compensation rule. Compared with the classical molecular-dynamics simulations for predicting the stability of monatomic carbon chain at high temperature, the model is proved to be much more accurate than the transition state theory. Based on the ab initio calculation of the static potential, the model can give out a corrected lifetime of monatomic carbon and gold chains at higher temperature, and predict that the monatomic chains are very stable at room temperature.

Social and physical aggression trajectories from childhood through late adolescence: Predictors of psychosocial maladjustment at age 18.

PubMed

Ehrenreich, Samuel E; Beron, Kurt J; Underwood, Marion K

2016-03-01

This research examined whether following social and physical aggression trajectories across Grades 3-12 predicted psychological maladjustment. Teachers rated participants' (n = 287, 138 boys) aggressive behavior at the end of each school year. Following the 12th grade, psychosocial outcomes were measured: rule-breaking behaviors, internalizing symptoms, and narcissistic and borderline personality features. Following the highest social aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking behavior; the medium social aggression trajectory was not a significant predictor of any outcome. Following the highest physical aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking, internalizing symptoms, and narcissism, whereas the medium physical aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking and internalizing symptoms. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Social and physical aggression trajectories from childhood through late adolescence: Predictors of psychosocial maladjustment at age 18

PubMed Central

Ehrenreich, Samuel E.; Beron, Kurt J.; Underwood, Marion K.

2016-01-01

This research examined whether following social and physical aggression trajectories across grades 3–12 predicted psychological maladjustment. Teachers rated participants’ (n=287, 138 boys) aggressive behavior at the end of each school year. Following the 12th grade, psychosocial outcomes were measured: rule-breaking behaviors, internalizing symptoms, and narcissistic and borderline personality features. Following the highest social aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking behavior; the medium social aggression trajectory was not a significant predictor of any outcome. Following the highest physical aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking, internalizing symptoms and narcissism, whereas the medium physical aggression trajectory predicted rule-breaking and internalizing symptoms. PMID:26891018

A comparison of scoring weights for the EuroQol derived from patients and the general public.

PubMed

Polsky, D; Willke, R J; Scott, K; Schulman, K A; Glick, H A

2001-01-01

General health state classification systems, such as the EuroQol instrument, have been developed to improve the systematic measurement and comparability of health state preferences. In this paper we generate valuations for EuroQol health states using responses to this instrument's visual analogue scale made by patients enrolled in a randomized clinical trial evaluating tirilazad mesylate, a new drug used to treat subarachnoid haemorrhage. We then compare these valuations derived from patients with published valuations derived from responses made by a sample from the general public. The data were derived from two sources: (1) responses to the EuroQol instrument from 649 patients 3 months after enrollment in the clinical trial, and (2) from a published study reporting a scoring rule for the EuroQol instrument that was based upon responses made by the general public. We used a linear regression model to develop an additive scoring rule. This rule enables direct valuation of all 243 EuroQol health states using patients' scores for their own health states elicited using a visual analogue scale. We then compared predicted scores generated using our scoring rule with predicted scores derived from a sample from the general public. The predicted scores derived using the additive scoring rules met convergent validity criteria and explained a substantial amount of the variation in visual analogue scale scores (R(2)=0.57). In the pairwise comparison of the predicted scores derived from the study sample with those derived from the general public, we found that the former set of scores were higher for 223 of the 243 states. Despite the low level of correspondence in the pairwise comparison, the overall correlation between the two sets of scores was 87%. The model presented in this paper demonstrated that scoring weights for the EuroQol instrument can be derived directly from patient responses from a clinical trial and that these weights can explain a substantial amount of variation in health valuations. Scoring weights based on patient responses are significantly higher than those derived from the general public. Further research is required to understand the source of these differences. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factor Analysis of Therapist-Identified Treatment Targets in Community-Based Children's Mental Health.

PubMed

Love, Allison R; Okado, Izumi; Orimoto, Trina E; Mueller, Charles W

2018-01-01

The present study used exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to identify underlying latent factors affecting variation in community therapists' endorsement of treatment targets. As part of a statewide practice management program, therapist completed monthly reports of treatment targets (up to 10 per month) for a sample of youth (n = 790) receiving intensive in-home therapy. Nearly 75 % of youth were diagnosed with multiple co-occurring disorders. Five factors emerged: Disinhibition, Societal Rules Evasion, Social Engagement Deficits, Emotional Distress, and Management of Biodevelopmental Outcomes. Using logistic regression, primary diagnosis predicted therapist selection of Disinhibition and Emotional Distress targets. Client age predicted endorsement of Societal Rules Evasion targets. Practice-to-research implications are discussed.

Chaos and the Double Function of Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aula, P. S.

Since at least the needle model age, communication researchers have systematically sought means to explain, control and predict communication behavior between people. For many reasons, the accuracy of constructed models and the studies based upon them has not risen very high. It can be claimed that the reasons for the inaccuracy of communication models, and thus the poor predictability of everyday action, originate from the processes' innate chaos, apparent beneath their behavior. This leads to the argument that communication systems, which appear stable and have precisely identical starting points and identical operating environments, can nevertheless behave in an exceptional and completely different manner, despite the fact that their behavior is ruled or directed by the same rules or laws.

Validating and updating a prediction rule for serious bacterial infection in patients with fever without source.

PubMed

Bleeker, S E; Derksen-Lubsen, G; Grobbee, D E; Donders, A R T; Moons, K G M; Moll, H A

2007-01-01

To externally validate and update a previously developed rule for predicting the presence of serious bacterial infections in children with fever without apparent source. Patients, 1-36 mo, presenting with fever without source, were prospectively enrolled. Serious bacterial infection included bacterial meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemia, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, bacterial gastroenteritis, osteomyelitis/ethmoiditis. The generalizability of the original rule was determined. Subsequently, the prediction rule was updated using all available data of the patients with fever without source (1996-1998 and 2000-2001, n = 381) using multivariable logistic regression. the generalizability of the rule appeared insufficient in the new patients (n = 150). In the updated rule, independent predictors from history and examination were duration of fever, vomiting, ill clinical appearance, chest-wall retractions and poor peripheral circulation (ROC area (95%CI): 0.69 (0.63-0.75)). Additional independent predictors from laboratory were serum white blood cell count and C-reactive protein, and in urinalysis > or = 70 white bloods (ROC area (95%CI): 0.83 (0.78-0.88). A previously developed prediction rule for predicting the presence of serious bacterial infection in children with fever without apparent source was updated. Its clinical score can be used as a first screening tool. Additional laboratory testing may specify the individual risk estimate (range: 4-54%) further.

Prediction of recombinant protein overexpression in Escherichia coli using a machine learning based model (RPOLP).

PubMed

Habibi, Narjeskhatoon; Norouzi, Alireza; Mohd Hashim, Siti Z; Shamsir, Mohd Shahir; Samian, Razip

2015-11-01

Recombinant protein overexpression, an important biotechnological process, is ruled by complex biological rules which are mostly unknown, is in need of an intelligent algorithm so as to avoid resource-intensive lab-based trial and error experiments in order to determine the expression level of the recombinant protein. The purpose of this study is to propose a predictive model to estimate the level of recombinant protein overexpression for the first time in the literature using a machine learning approach based on the sequence, expression vector, and expression host. The expression host was confined to Escherichia coli which is the most popular bacterial host to overexpress recombinant proteins. To provide a handle to the problem, the overexpression level was categorized as low, medium and high. A set of features which were likely to affect the overexpression level was generated based on the known facts (e.g. gene length) and knowledge gathered from related literature. Then, a representative sub-set of features generated in the previous objective was determined using feature selection techniques. Finally a predictive model was developed using random forest classifier which was able to adequately classify the multi-class imbalanced small dataset constructed. The result showed that the predictive model provided a promising accuracy of 80% on average, in estimating the overexpression level of a recombinant protein. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A rough set-based association rule approach implemented on a brand trust evaluation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Shu-Hsien; Chen, Yin-Ju

2017-09-01

In commerce, businesses use branding to differentiate their product and service offerings from those of their competitors. The brand incorporates a set of product or service features that are associated with that particular brand name and identifies the product/service segmentation in the market. This study proposes a new data mining approach, a rough set-based association rule induction, implemented on a brand trust evaluation model. In addition, it presents as one way to deal with data uncertainty to analyse ratio scale data, while creating predictive if-then rules that generalise data values to the retail region. As such, this study uses the analysis of algorithms to find alcoholic beverages brand trust recall. Finally, discussions and conclusion are presented for further managerial implications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sobottka, Marcelo, E-mail: sobottka@mtm.ufsc.br; Hart, Andrew G., E-mail: ahart@dim.uchile.cl

Highlights: {yields} We propose a simple stochastic model to construct primitive DNA sequences. {yields} The model provide an explanation for Chargaff's second parity rule in primitive DNA sequences. {yields} The model is also used to predict a novel type of strand symmetry in primitive DNA sequences. {yields} We extend the results for bacterial DNA sequences and compare distributional properties intrinsic to the model to statistical estimates from 1049 bacterial genomes. {yields} We find out statistical evidences that the novel type of strand symmetry holds for bacterial DNA sequences. -- Abstract: Chargaff's second parity rule for short oligonucleotides states that themore » frequency of any short nucleotide sequence on a strand is approximately equal to the frequency of its reverse complement on the same strand. Recent studies have shown that, with the exception of organellar DNA, this parity rule generally holds for double-stranded DNA genomes and fails to hold for single-stranded genomes. While Chargaff's first parity rule is fully explained by the Watson-Crick pairing in the DNA double helix, a definitive explanation for the second parity rule has not yet been determined. In this work, we propose a model based on a hidden Markov process for approximating the distributional structure of primitive DNA sequences. Then, we use the model to provide another possible theoretical explanation for Chargaff's second parity rule, and to predict novel distributional aspects of bacterial DNA sequences.« less

A novel logic-based approach for quantitative toxicology prediction.

PubMed

Amini, Ata; Muggleton, Stephen H; Lodhi, Huma; Sternberg, Michael J E

2007-01-01

There is a pressing need for accurate in silico methods to predict the toxicity of molecules that are being introduced into the environment or are being developed into new pharmaceuticals. Predictive toxicology is in the realm of structure activity relationships (SAR), and many approaches have been used to derive such SAR. Previous work has shown that inductive logic programming (ILP) is a powerful approach that circumvents several major difficulties, such as molecular superposition, faced by some other SAR methods. The ILP approach reasons with chemical substructures within a relational framework and yields chemically understandable rules. Here, we report a general new approach, support vector inductive logic programming (SVILP), which extends the essentially qualitative ILP-based SAR to quantitative modeling. First, ILP is used to learn rules, the predictions of which are then used within a novel kernel to derive a support-vector generalization model. For a highly heterogeneous dataset of 576 molecules with known fathead minnow fish toxicity, the cross-validated correlation coefficients (R2CV) from a chemical descriptor method (CHEM) and SVILP are 0.52 and 0.66, respectively. The ILP, CHEM, and SVILP approaches correctly predict 55, 58, and 73%, respectively, of toxic molecules. In a set of 165 unseen molecules, the R2 values from the commercial software TOPKAT and SVILP are 0.26 and 0.57, respectively. In all calculations, SVILP showed significant improvements in comparison with the other methods. The SVILP approach has a major advantage in that it uses ILP automatically and consistently to derive rules, mostly novel, describing fragments that are toxicity alerts. The SVILP is a general machine-learning approach and has the potential of tackling many problems relevant to chemoinformatics including in silico drug design.

How the brain predicts people's behavior in relation to rules and desires. Evidence of a medio-prefrontal dissociation.

PubMed

Corradi-Dell'Acqua, Corrado; Turri, Francesco; Kaufmann, Laurence; Clément, Fabrice; Schwartz, Sophie

2015-09-01

Forming and updating impressions about others is critical in everyday life and engages portions of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dMPFC), the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and the amygdala. Some of these activations are attributed to "mentalizing" functions necessary to represent people's mental states, such as beliefs or desires. Evolutionary psychology and developmental studies, however, suggest that interpersonal inferences can also be obtained through the aid of deontic heuristics, which dictate what must (or must not) be done in given circumstances. We used fMRI and asked 18 participants to predict whether unknown characters would follow their desires or obey external rules. Participants had no means, at the beginning, to make accurate predictions, but slowly learned (throughout the experiment) each character's behavioral profile. We isolated brain regions whose activity changed during the experiment, as a neural signature of impression updating: whereas dMPFC was progressively more involved in predicting characters' behavior in relation to their desires, the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the amygdala were progressively more recruited in predicting rule-based behavior. Our data provide evidence of a neural dissociation between deontic inference and theory-of-mind (ToM), and support a differentiation of orbital and dorsal prefrontal cortex in terms of low- and high-level social cognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Machine Learning Approach to Discover Rules for Expressive Performance Actions in Jazz Guitar Music.

PubMed

Giraldo, Sergio I; Ramirez, Rafael

2016-01-01

Expert musicians introduce expression in their performances by manipulating sound properties such as timing, energy, pitch, and timbre. Here, we present a data driven computational approach to induce expressive performance rule models for note duration, onset, energy, and ornamentation transformations in jazz guitar music. We extract high-level features from a set of 16 commercial audio recordings (and corresponding music scores) of jazz guitarist Grant Green in order to characterize the expression in the pieces. We apply machine learning techniques to the resulting features to learn expressive performance rule models. We (1) quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of the induced models, (2) analyse the relative importance of the considered musical features, (3) discuss some of the learnt expressive performance rules in the context of previous work, and (4) assess their generailty. The accuracies of the induced predictive models is significantly above base-line levels indicating that the audio performances and the musical features extracted contain sufficient information to automatically learn informative expressive performance patterns. Feature analysis shows that the most important musical features for predicting expressive transformations are note duration, pitch, metrical strength, phrase position, Narmour structure, and tempo and key of the piece. Similarities and differences between the induced expressive rules and the rules reported in the literature were found. Differences may be due to the fact that most previously studied performance data has consisted of classical music recordings. Finally, the rules' performer specificity/generality is assessed by applying the induced rules to performances of the same pieces performed by two other professional jazz guitar players. Results show a consistency in the ornamentation patterns between Grant Green and the other two musicians, which may be interpreted as a good indicator for generality of the ornamentation rules.

A Machine Learning Approach to Discover Rules for Expressive Performance Actions in Jazz Guitar Music

PubMed Central

Giraldo, Sergio I.; Ramirez, Rafael

2016-01-01

Expert musicians introduce expression in their performances by manipulating sound properties such as timing, energy, pitch, and timbre. Here, we present a data driven computational approach to induce expressive performance rule models for note duration, onset, energy, and ornamentation transformations in jazz guitar music. We extract high-level features from a set of 16 commercial audio recordings (and corresponding music scores) of jazz guitarist Grant Green in order to characterize the expression in the pieces. We apply machine learning techniques to the resulting features to learn expressive performance rule models. We (1) quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of the induced models, (2) analyse the relative importance of the considered musical features, (3) discuss some of the learnt expressive performance rules in the context of previous work, and (4) assess their generailty. The accuracies of the induced predictive models is significantly above base-line levels indicating that the audio performances and the musical features extracted contain sufficient information to automatically learn informative expressive performance patterns. Feature analysis shows that the most important musical features for predicting expressive transformations are note duration, pitch, metrical strength, phrase position, Narmour structure, and tempo and key of the piece. Similarities and differences between the induced expressive rules and the rules reported in the literature were found. Differences may be due to the fact that most previously studied performance data has consisted of classical music recordings. Finally, the rules' performer specificity/generality is assessed by applying the induced rules to performances of the same pieces performed by two other professional jazz guitar players. Results show a consistency in the ornamentation patterns between Grant Green and the other two musicians, which may be interpreted as a good indicator for generality of the ornamentation rules. PMID:28066290

A comprehensive revisit of the ρ meson with improved Monte-Carlo based QCD sum rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qi-Nan; Zhang, Zhu-Feng; Steele, T. G.; Jin, Hong-Ying; Huang, Zhuo-Ran

2017-07-01

We improve the Monte-Carlo based QCD sum rules by introducing the rigorous Hölder-inequality-determined sum rule window and a Breit-Wigner type parametrization for the phenomenological spectral function. In this improved sum rule analysis methodology, the sum rule analysis window can be determined without any assumptions on OPE convergence or the QCD continuum. Therefore, an unbiased prediction can be obtained for the phenomenological parameters (the hadronic mass and width etc.). We test the new approach in the ρ meson channel with re-examination and inclusion of α s corrections to dimension-4 condensates in the OPE. We obtain results highly consistent with experimental values. We also discuss the possible extension of this method to some other channels. Supported by NSFC (11175153, 11205093, 11347020), Open Foundation of the Most Important Subjects of Zhejiang Province, and K. C. Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University, TGS is Supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Z. F. Zhang and Z. R. Huang are Grateful to the University of Saskatchewan for its Warm Hospitality

Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Use of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms with Gene Expression Profiling to Predict Recurrent Nonmuscle Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder.

PubMed

Bartsch, Georg; Mitra, Anirban P; Mitra, Sheetal A; Almal, Arpit A; Steven, Kenneth E; Skinner, Donald G; Fry, David W; Lenehan, Peter F; Worzel, William P; Cote, Richard J

2016-02-01

Due to the high recurrence risk of nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma it is crucial to distinguish patients at high risk from those with indolent disease. In this study we used a machine learning algorithm to identify the genes in patients with nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma at initial presentation that were most predictive of recurrence. We used the genes in a molecular signature to predict recurrence risk within 5 years after transurethral resection of bladder tumor. Whole genome profiling was performed on 112 frozen nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma specimens obtained at first presentation on Human WG-6 BeadChips (Illumina®). A genetic programming algorithm was applied to evolve classifier mathematical models for outcome prediction. Cross-validation based resampling and gene use frequencies were used to identify the most prognostic genes, which were combined into rules used in a voting algorithm to predict the sample target class. Key genes were validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The classifier set included 21 genes that predicted recurrence. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was done for these genes in a subset of 100 patients. A 5-gene combined rule incorporating a voting algorithm yielded 77% sensitivity and 85% specificity to predict recurrence in the training set, and 69% and 62%, respectively, in the test set. A singular 3-gene rule was constructed that predicted recurrence with 80% sensitivity and 90% specificity in the training set, and 71% and 67%, respectively, in the test set. Using primary nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma from initial occurrences genetic programming identified transcripts in reproducible fashion, which were predictive of recurrence. These findings could potentially impact nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma management. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision Tree based Prediction and Rule Induction for Groundwater Trichloroethene (TCE) Pollution Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Yoo, K.

2013-12-01

For groundwater resource conservation, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution sensitivity or vulnerability. In this work, we attempted to use data mining approach to assess groundwater pollution vulnerability in a TCE (trichloroethylene) contaminated Korean industrial site. The conventional DRASTIC method failed to describe TCE sensitivity data with a poor correlation with hydrogeological properties. Among the different data mining methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Case Base Reasoning (CBR), and Decision Tree (DT), the accuracy and consistency of Decision Tree (DT) was the best. According to the following tree analyses with the optimal DT model, the failure of the conventional DRASTIC method in fitting with TCE sensitivity data may be due to the use of inaccurate weight values of hydrogeological parameters for the study site. These findings provide a proof of concept that DT based data mining approach can be used in predicting and rule induction of groundwater TCE sensitivity without pre-existing information on weights of hydrogeological properties.

An Expert System for Diagnosis of Sleep Disorder Using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septem Riza, Lala; Pradini, Mila; Fitrajaya Rahman, Eka; Rasim

2017-03-01

Sleep disorder is an anomaly that could cause problems for someone’ sleeping pattern. Nowadays, it becomes an issue since people are getting busy with their own business and have no time to visit the doctors. Therefore, this research aims to develop a system used for diagnosis of sleep disorder using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System (FRBCS). FRBCS is a method based on the fuzzy set concepts. It consists of two steps: (i) constructing a model/knowledge involving rulebase and database, and (ii) prediction over new data. In this case, the knowledge is obtained from experts whereas in the prediction stage, we perform fuzzification, inference, and classification. Then, a platform implementing the method is built with a combination between PHP and the R programming language using the “Shiny” package. To validate the system that has been made, some experiments have been done using data from a psychiatric hospital in West Java, Indonesia. Accuracy of the result and computation time are 84.85% and 0.0133 seconds, respectively.

Scaling and modeling of turbulent suspension flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, C. P.

1989-01-01

Scaling factors determining various aspects of particle-fluid interactions and the development of physical models to predict gas-solid turbulent suspension flow fields are discussed based on two-fluid, continua formulation. The modes of particle-fluid interactions are discussed based on the length and time scale ratio, which depends on the properties of the particles and the characteristics of the flow turbulence. For particle size smaller than or comparable with the Kolmogorov length scale and concentration low enough for neglecting direct particle-particle interaction, scaling rules can be established in various parameter ranges. The various particle-fluid interactions give rise to additional mechanisms which affect the fluid mechanics of the conveying gas phase. These extra mechanisms are incorporated into a turbulence modeling method based on the scaling rules. A multiple-scale two-phase turbulence model is developed, which gives reasonable predictions for dilute suspension flow. Much work still needs to be done to account for the poly-dispersed effects and the extension to dense suspension flows.

Assess and Predict Automatic Generation Control Performances for Thermal Power Generation Units Based on Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yan; Yang, Zijiang; Gao, Song; Liu, Jinbiao

2018-02-01

Automatic generation control(AGC) is a key technology to maintain real time power generation and load balance, and to ensure the quality of power supply. Power grids require each power generation unit to have a satisfactory AGC performance, being specified in two detailed rules. The two rules provide a set of indices to measure the AGC performance of power generation unit. However, the commonly-used method to calculate these indices is based on particular data samples from AGC responses and will lead to incorrect results in practice. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the AGC performance indices via system identification techniques. In addition, a nonlinear regression model between performance indices and load command is built in order to predict the AGC performance indices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through industrial case studies.

Parent-based diagnosis of ADHD is as accurate as a teacher-based diagnosis of ADHD.

PubMed

Bied, Adam; Biederman, Joseph; Faraone, Stephen

2017-04-01

To review the literature evaluating the psychometric properties of parent and teacher informants relative to a gold-standard ADHD diagnosis in pediatric populations. We included studies that included both a parent and teacher informant, a gold-standard diagnosis, and diagnostic accuracy metrics. Potential confounds were evaluated. We also assessed the 'OR' and the 'AND' rules for combining informant reports. Eight articles met inclusion criteria. The diagnostic accuracy for predicting gold standard ADHD diagnoses did not differ between parents and teachers. Sample size, sample type, participant drop-out, participant age, participant gender, geographic area of the study, and date of study publication were assessed as potential confounds. Parent and teachers both yielded moderate to good diagnostic accuracy for ADHD diagnoses. Parent reports were statistically indistinguishable from those of teachers. The predictive features of the 'OR' and 'AND' rules are useful in evaluating approaches to better integrating information from these informants.

A new approach for predicting drought-related vegetation stress: Integrating satellite, climate, and biophysical data over the U.S. central plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Hayes, M.J.

2005-01-01

Droughts are normal climate episodes, yet they are among the most expensive natural disasters in the world. Knowledge about the timing, severity, and pattern of droughts on the landscape can be incorporated into effective planning and decision-making. In this study, we present a data mining approach to modeling vegetation stress due to drought and mapping its spatial extent during the growing season. Rule-based regression tree models were generated that identify relationships between satellite-derived vegetation conditions, climatic drought indices, and biophysical data, including land-cover type, available soil water capacity, percent of irrigated farm land, and ecological type. The data mining method builds numerical rule-based models that find relationships among the input variables. Because the models can be applied iteratively with input data from previous time periods, the method enables to provide predictions of vegetation conditions farther into the growing season based on earlier conditions. Visualizing the model outputs as mapped information (called VegPredict) provides a means to evaluate the model. We present prototype maps for the 2002 drought year for Nebraska and South Dakota and discuss potential uses for these maps.

Granular support vector machines with association rules mining for protein homology prediction.

PubMed

Tang, Yuchun; Jin, Bo; Zhang, Yan-Qing

2005-01-01

Protein homology prediction between protein sequences is one of critical problems in computational biology. Such a complex classification problem is common in medical or biological information processing applications. How to build a model with superior generalization capability from training samples is an essential issue for mining knowledge to accurately predict/classify unseen new samples and to effectively support human experts to make correct decisions. A new learning model called granular support vector machines (GSVM) is proposed based on our previous work. GSVM systematically and formally combines the principles from statistical learning theory and granular computing theory and thus provides an interesting new mechanism to address complex classification problems. It works by building a sequence of information granules and then building support vector machines (SVM) in some of these information granules on demand. A good granulation method to find suitable granules is crucial for modeling a GSVM with good performance. In this paper, we also propose an association rules-based granulation method. For the granules induced by association rules with high enough confidence and significant support, we leave them as they are because of their high "purity" and significant effect on simplifying the classification task. For every other granule, a SVM is modeled to discriminate the corresponding data. In this way, a complex classification problem is divided into multiple smaller problems so that the learning task is simplified. The proposed algorithm, here named GSVM-AR, is compared with SVM by KDDCUP04 protein homology prediction data. The experimental results show that finding the splitting hyperplane is not a trivial task (we should be careful to select the association rules to avoid overfitting) and GSVM-AR does show significant improvement compared to building one single SVM in the whole feature space. Another advantage is that the utility of GSVM-AR is very good because it is easy to be implemented. More importantly and more interestingly, GSVM provides a new mechanism to address complex classification problems.

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group.

PubMed

Timmerman, Dirk; Van Calster, Ben; Testa, Antonia; Savelli, Luca; Fischerova, Daniela; Froyman, Wouter; Wynants, Laure; Van Holsbeke, Caroline; Epstein, Elisabeth; Franchi, Dorella; Kaijser, Jeroen; Czekierdowski, Artur; Guerriero, Stefano; Fruscio, Robert; Leone, Francesco P G; Rossi, Alberto; Landolfo, Chiara; Vergote, Ignace; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil

2016-04-01

Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of an expert system for analysis of Shuttle atmospheric revitalization and pressure control subsystem anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lafuse, Sharon A.

1991-01-01

The paper describes the Shuttle Leak Management Expert System (SLMES), a preprototype expert system developed to enable the ECLSS subsystem manager to analyze subsystem anomalies and to formulate flight procedures based on flight data. The SLMES combines the rule-based expert system technology with the traditional FORTRAN-based software into an integrated system. SLMES analyzes the data using rules, and, when it detects a problem that requires simulation, it sets up the input for the FORTRAN-based simulation program ARPCS2AT2, which predicts the cabin total pressure and composition as a function of time. The program simulates the pressure control system, the crew oxygen masks, the airlock repress/depress valves, and the leakage. When the simulation has completed, other SLMES rules are triggered to examine the results of simulation contrary to flight data and to suggest methods for correcting the problem. Results are then presented in form of graphs and tables.

Extending (Q)SARs to incorporate proprietary knowledge for regulatory purposes: A case study using aromatic amine mutagenicity.

PubMed

Ahlberg, Ernst; Amberg, Alexander; Beilke, Lisa D; Bower, David; Cross, Kevin P; Custer, Laura; Ford, Kevin A; Van Gompel, Jacky; Harvey, James; Honma, Masamitsu; Jolly, Robert; Joossens, Elisabeth; Kemper, Raymond A; Kenyon, Michelle; Kruhlak, Naomi; Kuhnke, Lara; Leavitt, Penny; Naven, Russell; Neilan, Claire; Quigley, Donald P; Shuey, Dana; Spirkl, Hans-Peter; Stavitskaya, Lidiya; Teasdale, Andrew; White, Angela; Wichard, Joerg; Zwickl, Craig; Myatt, Glenn J

2016-06-01

Statistical-based and expert rule-based models built using public domain mutagenicity knowledge and data are routinely used for computational (Q)SAR assessments of pharmaceutical impurities in line with the approach recommended in the ICH M7 guideline. Knowledge from proprietary corporate mutagenicity databases could be used to increase the predictive performance for selected chemical classes as well as expand the applicability domain of these (Q)SAR models. This paper outlines a mechanism for sharing knowledge without the release of proprietary data. Primary aromatic amine mutagenicity was selected as a case study because this chemical class is often encountered in pharmaceutical impurity analysis and mutagenicity of aromatic amines is currently difficult to predict. As part of this analysis, a series of aromatic amine substructures were defined and the number of mutagenic and non-mutagenic examples for each chemical substructure calculated across a series of public and proprietary mutagenicity databases. This information was pooled across all sources to identify structural classes that activate or deactivate aromatic amine mutagenicity. This structure activity knowledge, in combination with newly released primary aromatic amine data, was incorporated into Leadscope's expert rule-based and statistical-based (Q)SAR models where increased predictive performance was demonstrated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presynaptic ionotropic receptors controlling and modulating the rules for spike timing-dependent plasticity.

PubMed

Verhoog, Matthijs B; Mansvelder, Huibert D

2011-01-01

Throughout life, activity-dependent changes in neuronal connection strength enable the brain to refine neural circuits and learn based on experience. In line with predictions made by Hebb, synapse strength can be modified depending on the millisecond timing of action potential firing (STDP). The sign of synaptic plasticity depends on the spike order of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Ionotropic neurotransmitter receptors, such as NMDA receptors and nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, are intimately involved in setting the rules for synaptic strengthening and weakening. In addition, timing rules for STDP within synapses are not fixed. They can be altered by activation of ionotropic receptors located at, or close to, synapses. Here, we will highlight studies that uncovered how network actions control and modulate timing rules for STDP by activating presynaptic ionotropic receptors. Furthermore, we will discuss how interaction between different types of ionotropic receptors may create "timing" windows during which particular timing rules lead to synaptic changes.

Validity of the MicroDYN Approach: Complex Problem Solving Predicts School Grades beyond Working Memory Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schweizer, Fabian; Wustenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel

2013-01-01

This study examines the validity of the complex problem solving (CPS) test MicroDYN by investigating a) the relation between its dimensions--rule identification (exploration strategy), rule knowledge (acquired knowledge), rule application (control performance)--and working memory capacity (WMC), and b) whether CPS predicts school grades in…

A novel on-line spatial-temporal k-anonymity method for location privacy protection from sequence rules-based inference attacks.

PubMed

Zhang, Haitao; Wu, Chenxue; Chen, Zewei; Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong

2017-01-01

Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets recorded in location-based service (LBS) application servers can benefit some LBS applications. However, such analyses can allow adversaries to make inference attacks that cannot be handled by spatial-temporal k-anonymity methods or other methods for protecting sensitive knowledge. In response to this challenge, first we defined a destination location prediction attack model based on privacy-sensitive sequence rules mined from large scale anonymity datasets. Then we proposed a novel on-line spatial-temporal k-anonymity method that can resist such inference attacks. Our anti-attack technique generates new anonymity datasets with awareness of privacy-sensitive sequence rules. The new datasets extend the original sequence database of anonymity datasets to hide the privacy-sensitive rules progressively. The process includes two phases: off-line analysis and on-line application. In the off-line phase, sequence rules are mined from an original sequence database of anonymity datasets, and privacy-sensitive sequence rules are developed by correlating privacy-sensitive spatial regions with spatial grid cells among the sequence rules. In the on-line phase, new anonymity datasets are generated upon LBS requests by adopting specific generalization and avoidance principles to hide the privacy-sensitive sequence rules progressively from the extended sequence anonymity datasets database. We conducted extensive experiments to test the performance of the proposed method, and to explore the influence of the parameter K value. The results demonstrated that our proposed approach is faster and more effective for hiding privacy-sensitive sequence rules in terms of hiding sensitive rules ratios to eliminate inference attacks. Our method also had fewer side effects in terms of generating new sensitive rules ratios than the traditional spatial-temporal k-anonymity method, and had basically the same side effects in terms of non-sensitive rules variation ratios with the traditional spatial-temporal k-anonymity method. Furthermore, we also found the performance variation tendency from the parameter K value, which can help achieve the goal of hiding the maximum number of original sensitive rules while generating a minimum of new sensitive rules and affecting a minimum number of non-sensitive rules.

A novel on-line spatial-temporal k-anonymity method for location privacy protection from sequence rules-based inference attacks

PubMed Central

Wu, Chenxue; Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong

2017-01-01

Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets recorded in location-based service (LBS) application servers can benefit some LBS applications. However, such analyses can allow adversaries to make inference attacks that cannot be handled by spatial-temporal k-anonymity methods or other methods for protecting sensitive knowledge. In response to this challenge, first we defined a destination location prediction attack model based on privacy-sensitive sequence rules mined from large scale anonymity datasets. Then we proposed a novel on-line spatial-temporal k-anonymity method that can resist such inference attacks. Our anti-attack technique generates new anonymity datasets with awareness of privacy-sensitive sequence rules. The new datasets extend the original sequence database of anonymity datasets to hide the privacy-sensitive rules progressively. The process includes two phases: off-line analysis and on-line application. In the off-line phase, sequence rules are mined from an original sequence database of anonymity datasets, and privacy-sensitive sequence rules are developed by correlating privacy-sensitive spatial regions with spatial grid cells among the sequence rules. In the on-line phase, new anonymity datasets are generated upon LBS requests by adopting specific generalization and avoidance principles to hide the privacy-sensitive sequence rules progressively from the extended sequence anonymity datasets database. We conducted extensive experiments to test the performance of the proposed method, and to explore the influence of the parameter K value. The results demonstrated that our proposed approach is faster and more effective for hiding privacy-sensitive sequence rules in terms of hiding sensitive rules ratios to eliminate inference attacks. Our method also had fewer side effects in terms of generating new sensitive rules ratios than the traditional spatial-temporal k-anonymity method, and had basically the same side effects in terms of non-sensitive rules variation ratios with the traditional spatial-temporal k-anonymity method. Furthermore, we also found the performance variation tendency from the parameter K value, which can help achieve the goal of hiding the maximum number of original sensitive rules while generating a minimum of new sensitive rules and affecting a minimum number of non-sensitive rules. PMID:28767687

Validation of predictive rules and indices of severity for community acquired pneumonia

PubMed Central

Ewig, S; de Roux, A; Bauer, T; Garcia, E; Mensa, J; Niederman, M; Torres, A

2004-01-01

Background: A study was undertaken to validate the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) rule and two British Thoracic Society (BTS) rules for the prediction of ICU admission and mortality of community acquired pneumonia and to provide a validation of these predictions on the basis of the pneumonia severity index (PSI). Method: Six hundred and ninety six consecutive patients (457 men (66%), mean (SD) age 67.8 (17.1) years, range 18–101) admitted to a tertiary care hospital were studied prospectively. Of these, 116 (16.7%) were admitted to the ICU. Results: The modified ATS rule achieved a sensitivity of 69% (95% CI 50.7 to 77.2), specificity of 97% (95% CI 96.4 to 98.9), positive predictive value of 87% (95% CI 78.3 to 93.1), and negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI 91.8 to 95.8) in predicting admission to the ICU. The corresponding predictive indices for mortality were 94% (95% CI 82.5 to 98.7), 93% (95% CI 90.6 to 94.7), 49% (95% CI 38.2 to 59.7), and 99.5% (95% CI 98.5 to 99.9), respectively. These figures compared favourably with both the BTS rules. The BTS-CURB criteria achieved predictions of pneumonia severity and mortality comparable to the PSI. Conclusions: This study confirms the power of the modified ATS rule to predict severe pneumonia in individual patients. It may be incorporated into current guidelines for the assessment of pneumonia severity. The CURB criteria may be used as an alternative tool to PSI for the detection of low risk patients. PMID:15115872

Modeling of autocatalytic hydrolysis of adefovir dipivoxil in solid formulations.

PubMed

Dong, Ying; Zhang, Yan; Xiang, Bingren; Deng, Haishan; Wu, Jingfang

2011-04-01

The stability and hydrolysis kinetics of a phosphate prodrug, adefovir dipivoxil, in solid formulations were studied. The stability relationship between five solid formulations was explored. An autocatalytic mechanism for hydrolysis could be proposed according to the kinetic behavior which fits the Prout-Tompkins model well. For the classical kinetic models could hardly describe and predict the hydrolysis kinetics of adefovir dipivoxil in solid formulations accurately when the temperature is high, a feedforward multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network was constructed to model the hydrolysis kinetics. The build-in approaches in Weka, such as lazy classifiers and rule-based learners (IBk, KStar, DecisionTable and M5Rules), were used to verify the performance of MLP. The predictability of the models was evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation and an external test set. It reveals that MLP should be of general applicability proposing an alternative efficient way to model and predict autocatalytic hydrolysis kinetics for phosphate prodrugs.

The Conforming Brain and Deontological Resolve

PubMed Central

Pincus, Melanie; LaViers, Lisa; Prietula, Michael J.; Berns, Gregory

2014-01-01

Our personal values are subject to forces of social influence. Deontological resolve captures how strongly one relies on absolute rules of right and wrong in the representation of one's personal values and may predict willingness to modify one's values in the presence of social influence. Using fMRI, we found that a neurobiological metric for deontological resolve based on relative activity in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) during the passive processing of sacred values predicted individual differences in conformity. Individuals with stronger deontological resolve, as measured by greater VLPFC activity, displayed lower levels of conformity. We also tested whether responsiveness to social reward, as measured by ventral striatal activity during social feedback, predicted variability in conformist behavior across individuals but found no significant relationship. From these results we conclude that unwillingness to conform to others' values is associated with a strong neurobiological representation of social rules. PMID:25170989

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

PubMed

Bösner, Stefan; Haasenritter, Jörg; Becker, Annette; Karatolios, Konstantinos; Vaucher, Paul; Gencer, Baris; Herzig, Lilli; Heinzel-Gutenbrunner, Monika; Schaefer, Juergen R; Abu Hani, Maren; Keller, Heidi; Sönnichsen, Andreas C; Baum, Erika; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2010-09-07

Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result

Learning to predict chemical reactions.

PubMed

Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

2011-09-26

Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system is generalizable, making reasonable predictions over reactants and conditions which the rule-based expert does not handle. A web interface to the machine learning based mechanistic reaction predictor is accessible through our chemoinformatics portal ( http://cdb.ics.uci.edu) under the Toolkits section.

Learning to Predict Chemical Reactions

PubMed Central

Kayala, Matthew A.; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H.

2011-01-01

Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles respectively are not high-throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, or lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry dataset consisting of 1630 full multi-step reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval, problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of non-productive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system is generalizable, making reasonable predictions over reactants and conditions which the rule-based expert does not handle. A web interface to the machine learning based mechanistic reaction predictor is accessible through our chemoinformatics portal (http://cdb.ics.uci.edu) under the Toolkits section. PMID:21819139

Machine Learning Based Evaluation of Reading and Writing Difficulties.

PubMed

Iwabuchi, Mamoru; Hirabayashi, Rumi; Nakamura, Kenryu; Dim, Nem Khan

2017-01-01

The possibility of auto evaluation of reading and writing difficulties was investigated using non-parametric machine learning (ML) regression technique for URAWSS (Understanding Reading and Writing Skills of Schoolchildren) [1] test data of 168 children of grade 1 - 9. The result showed that the ML had better prediction than the ordinary rule-based decision.

Final Report: Identification and Manipulation of Novel Topological Phases

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-09

ps at TG and then exhibits a marked change in temperature dependence below TG [Fig. 4(d)]. A sharp rise in relaxation time at TN typically signifies...description, which predicts sharp first-order MITs like in V2O3.28 Although our measurements do not rule out gaps beginning to form in microscopically...Sr2IrO4 defies a strictMott-Hubbard description.We rule out the possibility of a disorder broadened TMIT in our samples based on their sharp magnetic

A prospective observational study to assess the diagnostic accuracy of clinical decision rules for children presenting to emergency departments after head injuries (protocol): the Australasian Paediatric Head Injury Rules Study (APHIRST).

PubMed

Babl, Franz E; Lyttle, Mark D; Bressan, Silvia; Borland, Meredith; Phillips, Natalie; Kochar, Amit; Dalziel, Stuart R; Dalton, Sarah; Cheek, John A; Furyk, Jeremy; Gilhotra, Yuri; Neutze, Jocelyn; Ward, Brenton; Donath, Susan; Jachno, Kim; Crowe, Louise; Williams, Amanda; Oakley, Ed

2014-06-13

Head injuries in children are responsible for a large number of emergency department visits. Failure to identify a clinically significant intracranial injury in a timely fashion may result in long term neurodisability and death. Whilst cranial computed tomography (CT) provides rapid and definitive identification of intracranial injuries, it is resource intensive and associated with radiation induced cancer. Evidence based head injury clinical decision rules have been derived to aid physicians in identifying patients at risk of having a clinically significant intracranial injury. Three rules have been identified as being of high quality and accuracy: the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) from Canada, the Children's Head Injury Algorithm for the Prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) from the UK, and the prediction rule for the identification of children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injury developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) from the USA. This study aims to prospectively validate and compare the performance accuracy of these three clinical decision rules when applied outside the derivation setting. This study is a prospective observational study of children aged 0 to less than 18 years presenting to 10 emergency departments within the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT) research network in Australia and New Zealand after head injuries of any severity. Predictor variables identified in CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN clinical decision rules will be collected. Patients will be managed as per the treating clinicians at the participating hospitals. All patients not undergoing cranial CT will receive a follow up call 14 to 90 days after the injury. Outcome data collected will include results of cranial CTs (if performed) and details of admission, intubation, neurosurgery and death. The performance accuracy of each of the rules will be assessed using rule specific outcomes and inclusion and exclusion criteria. This study will allow the simultaneous comparative application and validation of three major paediatric head injury clinical decision rules outside their derivation setting. The study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR)- ACTRN12614000463673 (registered 2 May 2014).

Supraspinal Control Predicts Locomotor Function and Forecasts Responsiveness to Training after Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Field-Fote, Edelle C.; Yang, Jaynie F.; Basso, D. Michele; Gorassini, Monica A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Restoration of walking ability is an area of great interest in the rehabilitation of persons with spinal cord injury. Because many cortical, subcortical, and spinal neural centers contribute to locomotor function, it is important that intervention strategies be designed to target neural elements at all levels of the neuraxis that are important for walking ability. While to date most strategies have focused on activation of spinal circuits, more recent studies are investigating the value of engaging supraspinal circuits. Despite the apparent potential of pharmacological, biological, and genetic approaches, as yet none has proved more effective than physical therapeutic rehabilitation strategies. By making optimal use of the potential of the nervous system to respond to training, strategies can be developed that meet the unique needs of each person. To complement the development of optimal training interventions, it is valuable to have the ability to predict future walking function based on early clinical presentation, and to forecast responsiveness to training. A number of clinical prediction rules and association models based on common clinical measures have been developed with the intent, respectively, to predict future walking function based on early clinical presentation, and to delineate characteristics associated with responsiveness to training. Further, a number of variables that are correlated with walking function have been identified. Not surprisingly, most of these prediction rules, association models, and correlated variables incorporate measures of volitional lower extremity strength, illustrating the important influence of supraspinal centers in the production of walking behavior in humans. PMID:27673569

Prestraining and Its Influence on Subsequent Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Mcgaw, Michael A.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

1995-01-01

An experimental program was conducted to study the damaging effects of tensile and compressive prestrains on the fatigue life of nickel-base, Inconel 718 superalloy at room temperature. To establish baseline fatigue behavior, virgin specimens with a solid uniform gage section were fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Additional specimens were prestrained to 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent (engineering strains) in the tensile direction and to 2 percent (engineering strain) in the compressive direction under stroke-control, and were subsequently fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Experimental results are compared with estimates of remaining fatigue lives (after prestraining) using three life prediction approaches: (1) the Linear Damage Rule; (2) the Linear Strain and Life Fraction Rule; and (3) the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach. The Smith-Watson-Topper parameter was used to estimate fatigue lives in the presence of mean stresses. Among the cumulative damage rules investigated, best remaining fatigue life predictions were obtained with the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach.

Derivation and Validation of a Biomarker-Based Clinical Algorithm to Rule Out Sepsis From Noninfectious Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome at Emergency Department Admission: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mearelli, Filippo; Fiotti, Nicola; Giansante, Carlo; Casarsa, Chiara; Orso, Daniele; De Helmersen, Marco; Altamura, Nicola; Ruscio, Maurizio; Castello, Luigi Mario; Colonetti, Efrem; Marino, Rossella; Barbati, Giulia; Bregnocchi, Andrea; Ronco, Claudio; Lupia, Enrico; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Di Somma, Salvatore; Avanzi, Gian Carlo; Biolo, Gianni

2018-05-07

To derive and validate a predictive algorithm integrating a nomogram-based prediction of the pretest probability of infection with a panel of serum biomarkers, which could robustly differentiate sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Multicenter prospective study. At emergency department admission in five University hospitals. Nine-hundred forty-seven adults in inception cohort and 185 adults in validation cohort. None. A nomogram, including age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, recent antimicrobial therapy, hyperthermia, leukocytosis, and high C-reactive protein values, was built in order to take data from 716 infected patients and 120 patients with noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict pretest probability of infection. Then, the best combination of procalcitonin, soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA, presepsin, soluble interleukin-2 receptor α, and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 was applied in order to categorize patients as "likely" or "unlikely" to be infected. The predictive algorithm required only procalcitonin backed up with soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA determined in 29% of the patients to rule out sepsis/septic shock with a negative predictive value of 93%. In a validation cohort of 158 patients, predictive algorithm reached 100% of negative predictive value requiring biomarker measurements in 18% of the population. We have developed and validated a high-performing, reproducible, and parsimonious algorithm to assist emergency department physicians in distinguishing sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of risk prediction rules in children and young people with febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Phillips, Robert S; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia.

Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Performance of Risk Prediction Rules in Children and Young People with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Phillips, Robert S.; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Introduction Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. Methods The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. Results We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. Conclusion The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia. PMID:22693615

The structural effects of mutations can aid in differential phenotype prediction of beta-myosin heavy chain (Myosin-7) missense variants.

PubMed

Al-Numair, Nouf S; Lopes, Luis; Syrris, Petros; Monserrat, Lorenzo; Elliott, Perry; Martin, Andrew C R

2016-10-01

High-throughput sequencing platforms are increasingly used to screen patients with genetic disease for pathogenic mutations, but prediction of the effects of mutations remains challenging. Previously we developed SAAPdap (Single Amino Acid Polymorphism Data Analysis Pipeline) and SAAPpred (Single Amino Acid Polymorphism Predictor) that use a combination of rule-based structural measures to predict whether a missense genetic variant is pathogenic. Here we investigate whether the same methodology can be used to develop a differential phenotype predictor, which, once a mutation has been predicted as pathogenic, is able to distinguish between phenotypes-in this case the two major clinical phenotypes (hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, HCM and dilated cardiomyopathy, DCM) associated with mutations in the beta-myosin heavy chain (MYH7) gene product (Myosin-7). A random forest predictor trained on rule-based structural analyses together with structural clustering data gave a Matthews' correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.53 (accuracy, 75%). A post hoc removal of machine learning models that performed particularly badly, increased the performance (MCC = 0.61, Acc = 79%). This proof of concept suggests that methods used for pathogenicity prediction can be extended for use in differential phenotype prediction. Analyses were implemented in Perl and C and used the Java-based Weka machine learning environment. Please contact the authors for availability. andrew@bioinf.org.uk or andrew.martin@ucl.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predictive performance of universal termination of resuscitation rules in an Asian community: are they accurate enough?

PubMed

Chiang, Wen-Chu; Ko, Patrick Chow-In; Chang, Anna Marie; Liu, Sot Shih-Hung; Wang, Hui-Chih; Yang, Chih-Wei; Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Chen, Shey-Ying; Lai, Mei-Shu; Ma, Matthew Huei-Ming

2015-04-01

Prehospital termination of resuscitation (TOR) rules have not been widely validated outside of Western countries. This study evaluated the performance of TOR rules in an Asian metropolitan with a mixed-tier emergency medical service (EMS). We analysed the Utstein registry of adult, non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) in Taipei to test the performance of TOR rules for advanced life support (ALS) or basic life support (BLS) providers. ALS and BLS-TOR rules were tested in OHCAs among three subgroups: (1) resuscitated by ALS, (2) by BLS and (3) by mixed ALS and BLS. Outcome definition was in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value and decreased transport rate (DTR) among various provider combinations were calculated. Of the 3489 OHCAs included, 240 were resuscitated by ALS, 1727 by BLS and 1522 by ALS and BLS. Overall survival to hospital discharge was 197 patients (5.6%). Specificity and PPV of ALS-TOR and BLS-TOR for identifying death ranged from 70.7% to 81.8% and 95.1% to 98.1%, respectively. Applying the TOR rules would have a DTR of 34.2-63.9%. BLS rules had better predictive accuracy and DTR than ALS rules among all subgroups. Application of the ALS and BLS TOR rules would have decreased OHCA transported to the hospital, and BLS rules are reasonable as the universal criteria in a mixed-tier EMS. However, 1.9-4.9% of those who survived would be misclassified as non-survivors, raising concern of compromising patient safety for the implementation of the rules. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Large-scale optimization-based classification models in medicine and biology.

PubMed

Lee, Eva K

2007-06-01

We present novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule); and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved-judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multi-group prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular degeneracy and tumor metastasis; prediction of protein localization sites; and pattern recognition of satellite images in classification of soil types. In all these applications, the predictive model yields correct classification rates ranging from 80 to 100%. This provides motivation for pursuing its use as a medical diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making tool.

Prospective comparison of three predictive rules for assessing severity of community‐acquired pneumonia in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Man, Shin Yan; Lee, Nelson; Ip, Margaret; Antonio, Gregory E; Chau, Shirley SL; Mak, Paulina; Graham, Colin A; Zhang, Mingdong; Lui, Grace; Chan, Paul K S; Ahuja, Anil T; Hui, David S; Sung, Joseph J Y; Rainer, Timothy H

2007-01-01

Background Community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading infectious cause of death throughout the world, including Hong Kong. Aim To compare the ability of three validated prediction rules for CAP to predict mortality in Hong Kong: the 20 variable Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), the 6‐point CURB65 scale adopted by the British Thoracic Society and the simpler CRB65. Methods A prospective observational study of 1016 consecutive inpatients with CAP (583 men, mean (SD) age 72 (17) years) was performed in a university hospital in the New Territories of Hong Kong in 2004. The patients were classified into three risk groups (low, intermediate and high) according to each rule. The ability of the three rules to predict 30 day mortality was compared. Results The overall mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates were 8.6% and 4.0%, respectively. PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 performed similarly, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0.736 (95% CI 0.687 to 0.736), 0.733 (95% CI 0.679 to 0.787) and 0.694 (95% CI 0.634 to 0.753), respectively. All three rules had high negative predictive values but relatively low positive predictive values at all cut‐off points. Larger proportions of patients were identified as low risk by PSI (47.2%) and CURB65 (43.3%) than by CRB65 (12.6%). Conclusion All three predictive rules have a similar performance in predicting the severity of CAP, but CURB65 is more suitable than the other two for use in the emergency department because of its simplicity of application and ability to identify low‐risk patients. PMID:17121867

Ottawa Ankle Rules and Subjective Surgeon Perception to Evaluate Radiograph Necessity Following Foot and Ankle Sprain

PubMed Central

Pires, RES; Pereira, AA; Abreu-e-Silva, GM; Labronici, PJ; Figueiredo, LB; Godoy-Santos, AL; Kfuri, M

2014-01-01

Background: Foot and ankle injuries are frequent in emergency departments. Although only a few patients with foot and ankle sprain present fractures and the fracture patterns are almost always simple, lack of fracture diagnosis can lead to poor functional outcomes. Aim: The present study aims to evaluate the reliability of the Ottawa ankle rules and the orthopedic surgeon subjective perception to assess foot and ankle fractures after sprains. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from July 2012 to December 2012. Ethical approval was granted. Two hundred seventy-four adult patients admitted to the emergency department with foot and/or ankle sprain were evaluated by an orthopedic surgeon who completed a questionnaire prior to radiographic assessment. The Ottawa ankle rules and subjective perception of foot and/or ankle fractures were evaluated on the questionnaire. Results: Thirteen percent (36/274) patients presented fracture. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis showed 55.6% sensitivity, 90.1% specificity, 46.5% positive predictive value and 92.9% negative predictive value. The general orthopedic surgeon opinion accuracy was 85.4%. The Ottawa ankle rules presented 97.2% sensitivity, 7.8% specificity, 13.9% positive predictive value, 95% negative predictive value and 19.9% accuracy respectively. Weight-bearing inability was the Ottawa ankle rule item that presented the highest reliability, 69.4% sensitivity, 61.6% specificity, 63.1% accuracy, 21.9% positive predictive value and 93% negative predictive value respectively. Conclusion: The Ottawa ankle rules showed high reliability for deciding when to take radiographs in foot and/or ankle sprains. Weight-bearing inability was the most important isolated item to predict fracture presence. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis to predict fracture possibility showed a high specificity rate, representing a confident method to exclude unnecessary radiographic exams. PMID:24971221

Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T; Velasco, John Mark S; Roque, Vito G; Tayag, Enrique A; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H

2014-04-01

Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

Prediction of High Incidence of Dengue in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Buczak, Anna L.; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M.; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C.; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T.; Velasco, John Mark S.; Roque, Vito G.; Tayag, Enrique A.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H.

2014-01-01

Background Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Methods Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Principal Findings Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. Conclusions This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity. PMID:24722434

Evaluating an ensemble classification approach for crop diversity verification in Danish greening subsidy control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chellasamy, Menaka; Ferré, Ty Paul Andrew; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog

2016-07-01

Beginning in 2015, Danish farmers are obliged to meet specific crop diversification rules based on total land area and number of crops cultivated to be eligible for new greening subsidies. Hence, there is a need for the Danish government to extend their subsidy control system to verify farmers' declarations to warrant greening payments under the new crop diversification rules. Remote Sensing (RS) technology has been used since 1992 to control farmers' subsidies in Denmark. However, a proper RS-based approach is yet to be finalised to validate new crop diversity requirements designed for assessing compliance under the recent subsidy scheme (2014-2020); This study uses an ensemble classification approach (proposed by the authors in previous studies) for validating the crop diversity requirements of the new rules. The approach uses a neural network ensemble classification system with bi-temporal (spring and early summer) WorldView-2 imagery (WV2) and includes the following steps: (1) automatic computation of pixel-based prediction probabilities using multiple neural networks; (2) quantification of the classification uncertainty using Endorsement Theory (ET); (3) discrimination of crop pixels and validation of the crop diversification rules at farm level; and (4) identification of farmers who are violating the requirements for greening subsidies. The prediction probabilities are computed by a neural network ensemble supplied with training samples selected automatically using farmers declared parcels (field vectors containing crop information and the field boundary of each crop). Crop discrimination is performed by considering a set of conclusions derived from individual neural networks based on ET. Verification of the diversification rules is performed by incorporating pixel-based classification uncertainty or confidence intervals with the class labels at the farmer level. The proposed approach was tested with WV2 imagery acquired in 2011 for a study area in Vennebjerg, Denmark, containing 132 farmers, 1258 fields, and 18 crops. The classification results obtained show an overall accuracy of 90.2%. The RS-based results suggest that 36 farmers did not follow the crop diversification rules that would qualify for the greening subsidies. When compared to the farmers' reported crop mixes, irrespective of the rule, the RS results indicate that false crop declarations were made by 8 farmers, covering 15 fields. If the farmers' reports had been submitted for the new greening subsidies, 3 farmers would have made a false claim; while remaining 5 farmers obey the rules of required crop proportion even though they have submitted the false crop code due to their small holding size. The RS results would have supported 96 farmers for greening subsidy claims, with no instances of suggesting a greening subsidy for a holding that the farmer did not report as meeting the required conditions. These results suggest that the proposed RS based method shows great promise for validating the new greening subsidies in Denmark.

Information as a Measure of Model Skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.; Smith, L. A.

2002-12-01

Physicist Paul Davies has suggested that rather than the quest for laws that approximate ever more closely to "truth", science should be regarded as the quest for compressibility. The goodness of a model can be judged by the degree to which it allows us to compress data describing the real world. The "logarithmic scoring rule" is a method for evaluating probabilistic predictions of reality that turns this philosophical position into a practical means of model evaluation. This scoring rule measures the information deficit or "ignorance" of someone in possession of the prediction. A more applied viewpoint is that the goodness of a model is determined by its value to a user who must make decisions based upon its predictions. Any form of decision making under uncertainty can be reduced to a gambling scenario. Kelly showed that the value of a probabilistic prediction to a gambler pursuing the maximum return on their bets depends on their "ignorance", as determined from the logarithmic scoring rule, thus demonstrating a one-to-one correspondence between data compression and gambling returns. Thus information theory provides a way to think about model evaluation, that is both philosophically satisfying and practically oriented. P.C.W. Davies, in "Complexity, Entropy and the Physics of Information", Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute, Addison-Wesley 1990 J. Kelly, Bell Sys. Tech. Journal, 35, 916-926, 1956.

Child personality facets and overreactive parenting as predictors of aggression and rule-breaking trajectories from childhood to adolescence.

PubMed

Becht, Andrik I; Prinzie, Peter; Deković, Maja; van den Akker, Alithe L; Shiner, Rebecca L

2016-05-01

This study examined trajectories of aggression and rule breaking during the transition from childhood to adolescence (ages 9-15), and determined whether these trajectories were predicted by lower order personality facets, overreactive parenting, and their interaction. At three time points separated by 2-year intervals, mothers and fathers reported on their children's aggression and rule breaking (N = 290, M age = 8.8 years at Time 1). At Time 1, parents reported on their children's personality traits and their own overreactivity. Growth mixture modeling identified three aggression trajectories (low decreasing, high decreasing, and high increasing) and two rule-breaking trajectories (low and high). Lower optimism and compliance and higher energy predicted trajectories for both aggression and rule breaking, whereas higher expressiveness and irritability and lower orderliness and perseverance were unique risk factors for increasing aggression into adolescence. Lower concentration was a unique risk factor for increasing rule breaking. Parental overreactivity predicted higher trajectories of aggression but not rule breaking. Only two Trait × Overreactivity interactions were found. Our results indicate that personality facets could differentiate children at risk for different developmental trajectories of aggression and rule breaking.

Validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk patients with blunt trauma to the neck: part 2. A systematic review from the Cervical Assessment and Diagnosis Research Evaluation (CADRE) Collaboration.

PubMed

Moser, N; Lemeunier, N; Southerst, D; Shearer, H; Murnaghan, K; Sutton, D; Côté, P

2018-06-01

To update findings of the 2000-2010 Bone and Joint Decade Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) on the validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. We searched four databases from 2005 to 2015. Pairs of independent reviewers critically appraised eligible studies using the modified QUADAS-2 and QAREL criteria. We synthesized low risk of bias studies following best evidence synthesis principles. We screened 679 citations; five had a low risk of bias and were included in our synthesis. The sensitivity of the Canadian C-spine rule ranged from 0.90 to 1.00 with negative predictive values ranging from 99 to 100%. Inter-rater reliability of the Canadian C-spine rule varied from k = 0.60 between nurses and physicians to k = 0.93 among paramedics. The inter-rater reliability of the Nexus Low-Risk Criteria was k = 0.53 between resident physicians and faculty physicians. Our review adds new evidence to the Neck Pain Task Force and supports the use of clinical prediction rules in emergency care settings to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. The Canadian C-spine rule consistently demonstrated excellent sensitivity and negative predictive values. Our review, however, suggests that the reproducibility of the clinical predictions rules varies depending on the examiners level of training and experience.

Recognition ROCS Are Curvilinear--Or Are They? On Premature Arguments against the Two-High-Threshold Model of Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broder, Arndt; Schutz, Julia

2009-01-01

Recent reviews of recognition receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) claim that their curvilinear shape rules out threshold models of recognition. However, the shape of ROCs based on confidence ratings is not diagnostic to refute threshold models, whereas ROCs based on experimental bias manipulations are. Also, fitting predicted frequencies to…

Phrase Frequency, Proficiency and Grammaticality Interact in Non-Native Processing: Implications for Theories of SLA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shantz, Kailen

2017-01-01

This study reports on a self-paced reading experiment in which native and non-native speakers of English read sentences designed to evaluate the predictions of usage-based and rule-based approaches to second language acquisition (SLA). Critical stimuli were four-word sequences embedded into sentences in which phrase frequency and grammaticality…

Improving Emergency Department Triage Classification with Computerized Clinical Decision Support at a Pediatric Hospital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunisch, Joseph Martin

2012-01-01

Background: The Emergency Severity Index (ESI) is an emergency department (ED) triage classification system based on estimated patient-specific resource utilization. Rules for a computerized clinical decision support (CDS) system based on a patient's chief complaint were developed and tested using a stochastic model for predicting ESI scores.…

77 FR 66149 - Significant New Use Rules on Certain Chemical Substances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-02

... ecological structural activity relationship (EcoSAR) analysis of test data on analogous esters, EPA predicts... milligram/cubic meter (mg/m\\3\\) as an 8-hour time-weighted average. In addition, based on EcoSAR analysis of... the PMN substance via the inhalation route. In addition, based on EcoSAR analysis of test data on...

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 2: Advanced techniques. The linear channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omura, J. K.; Simon, M. K.

1982-01-01

A theory is presented for deducing and predicting the performance of transmitter/receivers for bandwidth efficient modulations suitable for use on the linear satellite channel. The underlying principle used is the development of receiver structures based on the maximum-likelihood decision rule. The application of the performance prediction tools, e.g., channel cutoff rate and bit error probability transfer function bounds to these modulation/demodulation techniques.

Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Podolak, Charles J.

2013-01-01

An ensemble of rule-based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large-scale influences on stability with several reduced-complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two-parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley-scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large-scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley-scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.

Logic Learning Machine and standard supervised methods for Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis using gene expression data and clinical variables.

PubMed

Parodi, Stefano; Manneschi, Chiara; Verda, Damiano; Ferrari, Enrico; Muselli, Marco

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the performance of a set of machine learning techniques in predicting the prognosis of Hodgkin's lymphoma using clinical factors and gene expression data. Analysed samples from 130 Hodgkin's lymphoma patients included a small set of clinical variables and more than 54,000 gene features. Machine learning classifiers included three black-box algorithms ( k-nearest neighbour, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) and two methods based on intelligible rules (Decision Tree and the innovative Logic Learning Machine method). Support Vector Machine clearly outperformed any of the other methods. Among the two rule-based algorithms, Logic Learning Machine performed better and identified a set of simple intelligible rules based on a combination of clinical variables and gene expressions. Decision Tree identified a non-coding gene ( XIST) involved in the early phases of X chromosome inactivation that was overexpressed in females and in non-relapsed patients. XIST expression might be responsible for the better prognosis of female Hodgkin's lymphoma patients.

Orthogonal search-based rule extraction for modelling the decision to transfuse.

PubMed

Etchells, T A; Harrison, M J

2006-04-01

Data from an audit relating to transfusion decisions during intermediate or major surgery were analysed to determine the strengths of certain factors in the decision making process. The analysis, using orthogonal search-based rule extraction (OSRE) from a trained neural network, demonstrated that the risk of tissue hypoxia (ROTH) assessed using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, the haemoglobin value (Hb) and the presence or absence of on-going haemorrhage (OGH) were able to reproduce the transfusion decisions with a joint specificity of 0.96 and sensitivity of 0.93 and a positive predictive value of 0.9. The rules indicating transfusion were: 1. ROTH > 32 mm and Hb < 94 g x l(-1); 2. ROTH > 13 mm and Hb < 87 g x l(-1); 3. ROTH > 38 mm, Hb < 102 g x l(-1) and OGH; 4. Hb < 78 g x l(-1).

Emergency physicians' knowledge and attitudes of clinical decision support in the electronic health record: a survey-based study.

PubMed

Ballard, Dustin W; Rauchwerger, Adina S; Reed, Mary E; Vinson, David R; Mark, Dustin G; Offerman, Steven R; Chettipally, Uli K; Graetz, Ilana; Dayan, Peter; Kuppermann, Nathan

2013-04-01

The objective was to investigate clinician knowledge of and attitudes toward clinical decision support (CDS) and its incorporation into the electronic health record (EHR). This was an electronic survey of emergency physicians (EPs) within an integrated health care delivery system that uses a complete EHR. Randomly assigned respondents completed one of two questionnaires, both including a hypothetical vignette and self-reported knowledge of and attitudes about CDS. One vignette version included CDS, and the other did not (NCDS). The vignette described a scenario in which a cranial computed tomography (CCT) is not recommended by validated prediction rules (the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network [PECARN] rules). In both survey versions, subjects responded first with their likely approach to evaluation and then again after receiving either CDS (the PECARN prediction rules) or no additional support. Descriptive statistics were used for self-reported responses and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of self-reported knowledge and use of the PECARN rules, as well as use of vignette responses. There were 339 respondents (68% response rate), with 172 of 339 (51%) randomized to the CDS version. Initially, 25% of respondents to each version indicated they would order CCTs. After CDS, 30 of 43 (70%) of respondents who initially would order CCTs changed their management decisions to no CCT versus two of 41 (5%) with the NCDS version (chi-square, p = 0.003). In response to self-report questions, 81 of 338 respondents (24%) reported having never heard of the PECARN prediction rules, 122 of 338 (36%) were aware of the rules but not their specifics, and 135 of 338 (40%) reported knowing the rules and their specifics. Respondents agreed with favorable statements about CDS (75% to 96% agreement across seven statements) and approaches to its implementation into the EHR (60% to 93% agreement across seven statements). In multivariable analyses, EPs with tenure of 5 to 14 years (odds ratio [AOR] = 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30 to 0.86) and for 15 years or more (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.20 to 0.70) were significantly less likely to report knowing the specifics of the PECARN prediction rules compared with EPs who practiced for fewer than 5 years. In addition, in the initial vignette responses (across both versions), physicians with ≥15 years of ED tenure compared to those with fewer than 5 years of experience (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.69), and those reporting knowing the specifics of the PECARN prediction rules were less likely to order CCTs (AOR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.30 to 0.92). EPs incorporated pediatric head trauma CDS via the EHR into their clinical judgment in a hypothetical scenario and reported favorable opinions of CDS in general and their inclusion into the EHR. © 2013 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Learning Parsimonious Classification Rules from Gene Expression Data Using Bayesian Networks with Local Structure.

PubMed

Lustgarten, Jonathan Lyle; Balasubramanian, Jeya Balaji; Visweswaran, Shyam; Gopalakrishnan, Vanathi

2017-03-01

The comprehensibility of good predictive models learned from high-dimensional gene expression data is attractive because it can lead to biomarker discovery. Several good classifiers provide comparable predictive performance but differ in their abilities to summarize the observed data. We extend a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL-GSS) algorithm, previously shown to be a significantly better predictor than other classical approaches in this domain. It searches a space of Bayesian networks using a decision tree representation of its parameters with global constraints, and infers a set of IF-THEN rules. The number of parameters and therefore the number of rules are combinatorial to the number of predictor variables in the model. We relax these global constraints to a more generalizable local structure (BRL-LSS). BRL-LSS entails more parsimonious set of rules because it does not have to generate all combinatorial rules. The search space of local structures is much richer than the space of global structures. We design the BRL-LSS with the same worst-case time-complexity as BRL-GSS while exploring a richer and more complex model space. We measure predictive performance using Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) and Accuracy. We measure model parsimony performance by noting the average number of rules and variables needed to describe the observed data. We evaluate the predictive and parsimony performance of BRL-GSS, BRL-LSS and the state-of-the-art C4.5 decision tree algorithm, across 10-fold cross-validation using ten microarray gene-expression diagnostic datasets. In these experiments, we observe that BRL-LSS is similar to BRL-GSS in terms of predictive performance, while generating a much more parsimonious set of rules to explain the same observed data. BRL-LSS also needs fewer variables than C4.5 to explain the data with similar predictive performance. We also conduct a feasibility study to demonstrate the general applicability of our BRL methods on the newer RNA sequencing gene-expression data.

Development of a prediction tool for patients presenting with acute cough in primary care: a prognostic study spanning six European countries.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Verheij, Theo Jm; Aerts, Marc; Ieven, Margareta; Butler, Christopher C; Little, Paul; Goossens, Herman; Coenen, Samuel

2018-05-01

Accurate prediction of the course of an acute cough episode could curb antibiotic overprescribing, but is still a major challenge in primary care. The authors set out to develop a new prediction rule for poor outcome (re-consultation with new or worsened symptoms, or hospital admission) in adults presenting to primary care with acute cough. Data were collected from 2604 adults presenting to primary care with acute cough or symptoms suggestive of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) within the Genomics to combat Resistance against Antibiotics in Community-acquired LRTI in Europe (GRACE; www.grace-lrti.org) Network of Excellence. Important signs and symptoms for the new prediction rule were found by combining random forest and logistic regression modelling. Performance to predict poor outcome in acute cough patients was compared with that of existing prediction rules, using the models' area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and any improvement obtained by including additional test results (C-reactive protein [CRP], blood urea nitrogen [BUN], chest radiography, or aetiology) was evaluated using the same methodology. The new prediction rule, included the baseline Risk of poor outcome, Interference with daily activities, number of years stopped Smoking (> or <45 years), severity of Sputum, presence of Crackles, and diastolic blood pressure (> or <85 mmHg) (RISSC85). Though performance of RISSC85 was moderate (sensitivity 62%, specificity 59%, positive predictive value 27%, negative predictive value 86%, AUC 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.61 to 0.67), it outperformed all existing prediction rules used today (highest AUC 0.53, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.56), and could not be significantly improved by including additional test results (highest AUC 0.64, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.68). The new prediction rule outperforms all existing alternatives in predicting poor outcome in adult patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and could not be improved by including additional test results. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Microarray-based cancer prediction using soft computing approach.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

2009-05-26

One of the difficulties in using gene expression profiles to predict cancer is how to effectively select a few informative genes to construct accurate prediction models from thousands or ten thousands of genes. We screen highly discriminative genes and gene pairs to create simple prediction models involved in single genes or gene pairs on the basis of soft computing approach and rough set theory. Accurate cancerous prediction is obtained when we apply the simple prediction models for four cancerous gene expression datasets: CNS tumor, colon tumor, lung cancer and DLBCL. Some genes closely correlated with the pathogenesis of specific or general cancers are identified. In contrast with other models, our models are simple, effective and robust. Meanwhile, our models are interpretable for they are based on decision rules. Our results demonstrate that very simple models may perform well on cancerous molecular prediction and important gene markers of cancer can be detected if the gene selection approach is chosen reasonably.

SCADA-based Operator Support System for Power Plant Equipment Fault Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayadevi, N.; Ushakumari, S. S.; Vinodchandra, S. S.

2014-12-01

Power plant equipment must be monitored closely to prevent failures from disrupting plant availability. Online monitoring technology integrated with hybrid forecasting techniques can be used to prevent plant equipment faults. A self learning rule-based expert system is proposed in this paper for fault forecasting in power plants controlled by supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Self-learning utilizes associative data mining algorithms on the SCADA history database to form new rules that can dynamically update the knowledge base of the rule-based expert system. In this study, a number of popular associative learning algorithms are considered for rule formation. Data mining results show that the Tertius algorithm is best suited for developing a learning engine for power plants. For real-time monitoring of the plant condition, graphical models are constructed by K-means clustering. To build a time-series forecasting model, a multi layer preceptron (MLP) is used. Once created, the models are updated in the model library to provide an adaptive environment for the proposed system. Graphical user interface (GUI) illustrates the variation of all sensor values affecting a particular alarm/fault, as well as the step-by-step procedure for avoiding critical situations and consequent plant shutdown. The forecasting performance is evaluated by computing the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the predictions.

Effortful control mediates relations between children's attachment security and their regard for rules of conduct

PubMed Central

Nordling, Jamie Koenig; Boldt, Lea J.; O'Bleness, Jessica; Kochanska, Grazyna

2015-01-01

Although attachment security has been associated with children's rule-compatible conduct, the mechanism through which attachment influences early regard for rules is not well established. We hypothesized that effortful control would mediate the link between security and indicators of children's emerging regard for rules (discomfort following rule violations, internalization of parents' and experimenter's rules, few externalizing behaviors). In a longitudinal study, the Attachment Q-Set was completed by parents, effortful control was observed, and Regard for Rules was observed and rated by parents. The proposed model fit the data well: Children's security to mothers predicted their effortful control, which in turn had a direct link to a greater Regard for Rules. Children's security with fathers did not predict effortful control. The mother-child relationship appears particularly important for positive developmental cascades of self-regulation and socialization. PMID:27158193

Prefrontal and parietal activity is modulated by the rule complexity of inductive reasoning and can be predicted by a cognitive model.

PubMed

Jia, Xiuqin; Liang, Peipeng; Shi, Lin; Wang, Defeng; Li, Kuncheng

2015-01-01

In neuroimaging studies, increased task complexity can lead to increased activation in task-specific regions or to activation of additional regions. How the brain adapts to increased rule complexity during inductive reasoning remains unclear. In the current study, three types of problems were created: simple rule induction (i.e., SI, with rule complexity of 1), complex rule induction (i.e., CI, with rule complexity of 2), and perceptual control. Our findings revealed that increased activations accompany increased rule complexity in the right dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and medial posterior parietal cortex (precuneus). A cognitive model predicted both the behavioral and brain imaging results. The current findings suggest that neural activity in frontal and parietal regions is modulated by rule complexity, which may shed light on the neural mechanisms of inductive reasoning. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Online intelligent controllers for an enzyme recovery plant: design methodology and performance.

PubMed

Leite, M S; Fujiki, T L; Silva, F V; Fileti, A M F

2010-12-27

This paper focuses on the development of intelligent controllers for use in a process of enzyme recovery from pineapple rind. The proteolytic enzyme bromelain (EC 3.4.22.4) is precipitated with alcohol at low temperature in a fed-batch jacketed tank. Temperature control is crucial to avoid irreversible protein denaturation. Fuzzy or neural controllers offer a way of implementing solutions that cover dynamic and nonlinear processes. The design methodology and a comparative study on the performance of fuzzy-PI, neurofuzzy, and neural network intelligent controllers are presented. To tune the fuzzy PI Mamdani controller, various universes of discourse, rule bases, and membership function support sets were tested. A neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), based on Takagi-Sugeno rules, and a model predictive controller, based on neural modeling, were developed and tested as well. Using a Fieldbus network architecture, a coolant variable speed pump was driven by the controllers. The experimental results show the effectiveness of fuzzy controllers in comparison to the neural predictive control. The fuzzy PI controller exhibited a reduced error parameter (ITAE), lower power consumption, and better recovery of enzyme activity.

Online Intelligent Controllers for an Enzyme Recovery Plant: Design Methodology and Performance

PubMed Central

Leite, M. S.; Fujiki, T. L.; Silva, F. V.; Fileti, A. M. F.

2010-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of intelligent controllers for use in a process of enzyme recovery from pineapple rind. The proteolytic enzyme bromelain (EC 3.4.22.4) is precipitated with alcohol at low temperature in a fed-batch jacketed tank. Temperature control is crucial to avoid irreversible protein denaturation. Fuzzy or neural controllers offer a way of implementing solutions that cover dynamic and nonlinear processes. The design methodology and a comparative study on the performance of fuzzy-PI, neurofuzzy, and neural network intelligent controllers are presented. To tune the fuzzy PI Mamdani controller, various universes of discourse, rule bases, and membership function support sets were tested. A neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), based on Takagi-Sugeno rules, and a model predictive controller, based on neural modeling, were developed and tested as well. Using a Fieldbus network architecture, a coolant variable speed pump was driven by the controllers. The experimental results show the effectiveness of fuzzy controllers in comparison to the neural predictive control. The fuzzy PI controller exhibited a reduced error parameter (ITAE), lower power consumption, and better recovery of enzyme activity. PMID:21234106

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2015-01-01

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong (R2 = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.

Novel determinants of mammalian primary microRNA processing revealed by systematic evaluation of hairpin-containing transcripts and human genetic variation

PubMed Central

Roden, Christine; Gaillard, Jonathan; Kanoria, Shaveta; Rennie, William; Barish, Syndi; Cheng, Jijun; Pan, Wen; Liu, Jun; Cotsapas, Chris; Ding, Ye; Lu, Jun

2017-01-01

Mature microRNAs (miRNAs) are processed from hairpin-containing primary miRNAs (pri-miRNAs). However, rules that distinguish pri-miRNAs from other hairpin-containing transcripts in the genome are incompletely understood. By developing a computational pipeline to systematically evaluate 30 structural and sequence features of mammalian RNA hairpins, we report several new rules that are preferentially utilized in miRNA hairpins and govern efficient pri-miRNA processing. We propose that a hairpin stem length of 36 ± 3 nt is optimal for pri-miRNA processing. We identify two bulge-depleted regions on the miRNA stem, located ∼16–21 nt and ∼28–32 nt from the base of the stem, that are less tolerant of unpaired bases. We further show that the CNNC primary sequence motif selectively enhances the processing of optimal-length hairpins. We predict that a small but significant fraction of human single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) alter pri-miRNA processing, and confirm several predictions experimentally including a disease-causing mutation. Our study enhances the rules governing mammalian pri-miRNA processing and suggests a diverse impact of human genetic variation on miRNA biogenesis. PMID:28087842

Adolescents' as active agents in the socialization process: legitimacy of parental authority and obligation to obey as predictors of obedience.

PubMed

Darling, Nancy; Cumsille, Patricio; Martínez, M Loreto

2007-04-01

Adolescents' agreement with parental standards and beliefs about the legitimacy of parental authority and their own obligation to obey were used to predict adolescents' obedience, controlling for parental monitoring, rules, and rule enforcement. Hierarchical linear models were used to predict both between-adolescent and within-adolescent, issue-specific differences in obedience in a sample of 703 Chilean adolescents (M age=15.0 years). Adolescents' global agreement with parents and global beliefs about their obligation to obey predicted between-adolescent obedience, controlling for parental monitoring, age, and gender. Adolescents' issue-specific agreement, legitimacy beliefs, and obligation to obey predicted issue-specific obedience, controlling for rules and parents' reports of rule enforcement. The potential of examining adolescents' agreement and beliefs about authority as a key link between parenting practices and adolescents' decisions to obey is discussed.

A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

PubMed

Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

2018-01-01

We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures.

PubMed

Tung, W L; Quek, C; Cheng, P

2004-05-01

Bank failure prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the banking industries. The collapse and failure of a bank could trigger an adverse financial repercussion and generate negative impacts such as a massive bail out cost for the failing bank and loss of confidence from the investors and depositors. Very often, bank failures are due to financial distress. Hence, it is desirable to have an early warning system (EWS) that identifies potential bank failure or high-risk banks through the traits of financial distress. Various traditional statistical models have been employed to study bank failures [J Finance 1 (1975) 21; J Banking Finance 1 (1977) 249; J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073]. However, these models do not have the capability to identify the characteristics of financial distress and thus function as black boxes. This paper proposes the use of a new neural fuzzy system [Foundations of neuro-fuzzy systems, 1997], namely the Generic Self-organising Fuzzy Neural Network (GenSoFNN) [IEEE Trans Neural Networks 13 (2002c) 1075] based on the compositional rule of inference (CRI) [Commun ACM 37 (1975) 77], as an alternative to predict banking failure. The CRI based GenSoFNN neural fuzzy network, henceforth denoted as GenSoFNN-CRI(S), functions as an EWS and is able to identify the inherent traits of financial distress based on financial covariates (features) derived from publicly available financial statements. The interaction between the selected features is captured in the form of highly intuitive IF-THEN fuzzy rules. Such easily comprehensible rules provide insights into the possible characteristics of financial distress and form the knowledge base for a highly desired EWS that aids bank regulation. The performance of the GenSoFNN-CRI(S) network is subsequently benchmarked against that of the Cox's proportional hazards model [J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073], the multi-layered perceptron (MLP) and the modified cerebellar model articulation controller (MCMAC) [IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern: Part B 30 (2000) 491] in predicting bank failures based on a population of 3635 US banks observed over a 21 years period. Three sets of experiments are performed-bank failure classification based on the last available financial record and prediction using financial records one and two years prior to the last available financial statements. The performance of the GenSoFNN-CRI(S) network as a bank failure classification and EWS is encouraging.

Fuzzy rule based estimation of agricultural diffuse pollution concentration in streams.

PubMed

Singh, Raj Mohan

2008-04-01

Outflow from the agricultural fields carries diffuse pollutants like nutrients, pesticides, herbicides etc. and transports the pollutants into the nearby streams. It is a matter of serious concern for water managers and environmental researchers. The application of chemicals in the agricultural fields, and transport of these chemicals into streams are uncertain that cause complexity in reliable stream quality predictions. The chemical characteristics of applied chemical, percentage of area under the chemical application etc. are some of the main inputs that cause pollution concentration as output in streams. Each of these inputs and outputs may contain measurement errors. Fuzzy rule based model based on fuzzy sets suits to address uncertainties in inputs by incorporating overlapping membership functions for each of inputs even for limited data availability situations. In this study, the property of fuzzy sets to address the uncertainty in input-output relationship is utilized to obtain the estimate of concentrations of a herbicide, atrazine, in a stream. The data of White river basin, a part of the Mississippi river system, is used for developing the fuzzy rule based models. The performance of the developed methodology is found encouraging.

Prediction of microRNA target genes using an efficient genetic algorithm-based decision tree.

PubMed

Rabiee-Ghahfarrokhi, Behzad; Rafiei, Fariba; Niknafs, Ali Akbar; Zamani, Behzad

2015-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in almost all plants and animals. They play an important role in key processes, such as proliferation, apoptosis, and pathogen-host interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which miRNAs act are not fully understood. The first step toward unraveling the function of a particular miRNA is the identification of its direct targets. This step has shown to be quite challenging in animals primarily because of incomplete complementarities between miRNA and target mRNAs. In recent years, the use of machine-learning techniques has greatly increased the prediction of miRNA targets, avoiding the need for costly and time-consuming experiments to achieve miRNA targets experimentally. Among the most important machine-learning algorithms are decision trees, which classify data based on extracted rules. In the present work, we used a genetic algorithm in combination with C4.5 decision tree for prediction of miRNA targets. We applied our proposed method to a validated human datasets. We nearly achieved 93.9% accuracy of classification, which could be related to the selection of best rules.

Prediction of microRNA target genes using an efficient genetic algorithm-based decision tree

PubMed Central

Rabiee-Ghahfarrokhi, Behzad; Rafiei, Fariba; Niknafs, Ali Akbar; Zamani, Behzad

2015-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in almost all plants and animals. They play an important role in key processes, such as proliferation, apoptosis, and pathogen–host interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which miRNAs act are not fully understood. The first step toward unraveling the function of a particular miRNA is the identification of its direct targets. This step has shown to be quite challenging in animals primarily because of incomplete complementarities between miRNA and target mRNAs. In recent years, the use of machine-learning techniques has greatly increased the prediction of miRNA targets, avoiding the need for costly and time-consuming experiments to achieve miRNA targets experimentally. Among the most important machine-learning algorithms are decision trees, which classify data based on extracted rules. In the present work, we used a genetic algorithm in combination with C4.5 decision tree for prediction of miRNA targets. We applied our proposed method to a validated human datasets. We nearly achieved 93.9% accuracy of classification, which could be related to the selection of best rules. PMID:26649272

Presynaptic Ionotropic Receptors Controlling and Modulating the Rules for Spike Timing-Dependent Plasticity

PubMed Central

Verhoog, Matthijs B.; Mansvelder, Huibert D.

2011-01-01

Throughout life, activity-dependent changes in neuronal connection strength enable the brain to refine neural circuits and learn based on experience. In line with predictions made by Hebb, synapse strength can be modified depending on the millisecond timing of action potential firing (STDP). The sign of synaptic plasticity depends on the spike order of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Ionotropic neurotransmitter receptors, such as NMDA receptors and nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, are intimately involved in setting the rules for synaptic strengthening and weakening. In addition, timing rules for STDP within synapses are not fixed. They can be altered by activation of ionotropic receptors located at, or close to, synapses. Here, we will highlight studies that uncovered how network actions control and modulate timing rules for STDP by activating presynaptic ionotropic receptors. Furthermore, we will discuss how interaction between different types of ionotropic receptors may create “timing” windows during which particular timing rules lead to synaptic changes. PMID:21941664

CARSVM: a class association rule-based classification framework and its application to gene expression data.

PubMed

Kianmehr, Keivan; Alhajj, Reda

2008-09-01

In this study, we aim at building a classification framework, namely the CARSVM model, which integrates association rule mining and support vector machine (SVM). The goal is to benefit from advantages of both, the discriminative knowledge represented by class association rules and the classification power of the SVM algorithm, to construct an efficient and accurate classifier model that improves the interpretability problem of SVM as a traditional machine learning technique and overcomes the efficiency issues of associative classification algorithms. In our proposed framework: instead of using the original training set, a set of rule-based feature vectors, which are generated based on the discriminative ability of class association rules over the training samples, are presented to the learning component of the SVM algorithm. We show that rule-based feature vectors present a high-qualified source of discrimination knowledge that can impact substantially the prediction power of SVM and associative classification techniques. They provide users with more conveniences in terms of understandability and interpretability as well. We have used four datasets from UCI ML repository to evaluate the performance of the developed system in comparison with five well-known existing classification methods. Because of the importance and popularity of gene expression analysis as real world application of the classification model, we present an extension of CARSVM combined with feature selection to be applied to gene expression data. Then, we describe how this combination will provide biologists with an efficient and understandable classifier model. The reported test results and their biological interpretation demonstrate the applicability, efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed model. From the results, it can be concluded that a considerable increase in classification accuracy can be obtained when the rule-based feature vectors are integrated in the learning process of the SVM algorithm. In the context of applicability, according to the results obtained from gene expression analysis, we can conclude that the CARSVM system can be utilized in a variety of real world applications with some adjustments.

Logical recoding of S-R rules can reverse the effects of spatial S-R correspondence.

PubMed

Wühr, Peter; Biebl, Rupert

2009-02-01

Two experiments investigated competing explanations for the reversal of spatial stimulus-response (S-R) correspondence effects (i.e., Simon effects) with an incompatible S-R mapping on the relevant, nonspatial dimension. Competing explanations were based on generalized S-R rules (logical-recoding account) or referred to display-control arrangement correspondence or to S-S congruity. In Experiment 1, compatible responses to finger-name stimuli presented at left/right locations produced normal Simon effects, whereas incompatible responses to finger-name stimuli produced an inverted Simon effect. This finding supports the logical-recoding account. In Experiment 2, spatial S-R correspondence and color S-R correspondence were varied independently, and main effects of these variables were observed. The lack of an interaction between these variables, however, disconfirms a prediction of the display-control arrangement correspondence account. Together, the results provide converging evidence for the logical-recoding account. This account claims that participants derive generalized response selection rules (e.g., the identity or reversal rule) from specific S-R rules and inadvertently apply the generalized rules to the irrelevant (spatial) S-R dimension when selecting their response.

Four hundred or more participants needed for stable contingency table estimates of clinical prediction rule performance.

PubMed

Kent, Peter; Boyle, Eleanor; Keating, Jennifer L; Albert, Hanne B; Hartvigsen, Jan

2017-02-01

To quantify variability in the results of statistical analyses based on contingency tables and discuss the implications for the choice of sample size for studies that derive clinical prediction rules. An analysis of three pre-existing sets of large cohort data (n = 4,062-8,674) was performed. In each data set, repeated random sampling of various sample sizes, from n = 100 up to n = 2,000, was performed 100 times at each sample size and the variability in estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, posttest probabilities, odds ratios, and risk/prevalence ratios for each sample size was calculated. There were very wide, and statistically significant, differences in estimates derived from contingency tables from the same data set when calculated in sample sizes below 400 people, and typically, this variability stabilized in samples of 400-600 people. Although estimates of prevalence also varied significantly in samples below 600 people, that relationship only explains a small component of the variability in these statistical parameters. To reduce sample-specific variability, contingency tables should consist of 400 participants or more when used to derive clinical prediction rules or test their performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accuracy and precision of the signs and symptoms of streptococcal pharyngitis in children: a systematic review.

PubMed

Shaikh, Nader; Swaminathan, Nithya; Hooper, Emma G

2012-03-01

To conduct a systematic review to determine whether clinical findings can be used to rule in or to rule out streptococcal pharyngitis in children. Two authors independently searched MEDLINE and EMBASE. We included articles if they contained data on the accuracy of symptoms or signs of streptococcal pharyngitis, individually or combined into prediction rules, in children 3-18 years of age. Thirty-eight articles with data on individual symptoms and signs and 15 articles with data on prediction rules met all inclusion criteria. In children with sore throat, the presence of a scarlatiniform rash (likelihood ratio [LR], 3.91; 95% CI, 2.00-7.62), palatal petechiae (LR, 2.69; CI, 1.92-3.77), pharyngeal exudates (LR, 1.85; CI, 1.58-2.16), vomiting (LR, 1.79; CI, 1.58-2.16), and tender cervical nodes (LR, 1.72; CI, 1.54-1.93) were moderately useful in identifying those with streptococcal pharyngitis. Nevertheless, no individual symptoms or signs were effective in ruling in or ruling out streptococcal pharyngitis. Symptoms and signs, either individually or combined into prediction rules, cannot be used to definitively diagnose or rule out streptococcal pharyngitis. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Timescale analysis of rule-based biochemical reaction networks

PubMed Central

Klinke, David J.; Finley, Stacey D.

2012-01-01

The flow of information within a cell is governed by a series of protein-protein interactions that can be described as a reaction network. Mathematical models of biochemical reaction networks can be constructed by repetitively applying specific rules that define how reactants interact and what new species are formed upon reaction. To aid in understanding the underlying biochemistry, timescale analysis is one method developed to prune the size of the reaction network. In this work, we extend the methods associated with timescale analysis to reaction rules instead of the species contained within the network. To illustrate this approach, we applied timescale analysis to a simple receptor-ligand binding model and a rule-based model of Interleukin-12 (IL-12) signaling in näive CD4+ T cells. The IL-12 signaling pathway includes multiple protein-protein interactions that collectively transmit information; however, the level of mechanistic detail sufficient to capture the observed dynamics has not been justified based upon the available data. The analysis correctly predicted that reactions associated with JAK2 and TYK2 binding to their corresponding receptor exist at a pseudo-equilibrium. In contrast, reactions associated with ligand binding and receptor turnover regulate cellular response to IL-12. An empirical Bayesian approach was used to estimate the uncertainty in the timescales. This approach complements existing rank- and flux-based methods that can be used to interrogate complex reaction networks. Ultimately, timescale analysis of rule-based models is a computational tool that can be used to reveal the biochemical steps that regulate signaling dynamics. PMID:21954150

Urinary metabolic profiling of asymptomatic acute intermittent porphyria using a rule-mining-based algorithm.

PubMed

Luck, Margaux; Schmitt, Caroline; Talbi, Neila; Gouya, Laurent; Caradeuc, Cédric; Puy, Hervé; Bertho, Gildas; Pallet, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Metabolomic profiling combines Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy with supervised statistical analysis that might allow to better understanding the mechanisms of a disease. In this study, the urinary metabolic profiling of individuals with porphyrias was performed to predict different types of disease, and to propose new pathophysiological hypotheses. Urine 1 H-NMR spectra of 73 patients with asymptomatic acute intermittent porphyria (aAIP) and familial or sporadic porphyria cutanea tarda (f/sPCT) were compared using a supervised rule-mining algorithm. NMR spectrum buckets bins, corresponding to rules, were extracted and a logistic regression was trained. Our rule-mining algorithm generated results were consistent with those obtained using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and the predictive performance of the model was significant. Buckets that were identified by the algorithm corresponded to metabolites involved in glycolysis and energy-conversion pathways, notably acetate, citrate, and pyruvate, which were found in higher concentrations in the urines of aAIP compared with PCT patients. Metabolic profiling did not discriminate sPCT from fPCT patients. These results suggest that metabolic reprogramming occurs in aAIP individuals, even in the absence of overt symptoms, and supports the relationship that occur between heme synthesis and mitochondrial energetic metabolism.

Communication: The H2@C60 inelastic neutron scattering selection rule: Expanded and explained

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, Bill

2015-09-01

Recently [M. Xu et al., J. Chem. Phys. 139, 064309 (2013)], an unexpected selection rule was discovered for the title system, contradicting the previously held belief that inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is not subject to any selection rules. Moreover, the newly predicted forbidden transitions, which emerge only in the context of coupled H2 translation-rotation (TR) dynamics, have been confirmed experimentally. However, a simple physical understanding, e.g., based on group theory, has been heretofore lacking. This is provided in the present paper, in which we (1) derive the correct symmetry group for the H2@C60 TR Hamiltonian and eigenstates; (2) complete the INS selection rule, and show that the set of forbidden transitions is actually much larger than previously believed; and (3) evaluate previous theoretical and experimental results, in light of the new findings.

Communication: The H{sub 2}@C{sub 60} inelastic neutron scattering selection rule: Expanded and explained

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poirier, Bill, E-mail: Bill.Poirier@ttu.edu

Recently [M. Xu et al., J. Chem. Phys. 139, 064309 (2013)], an unexpected selection rule was discovered for the title system, contradicting the previously held belief that inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is not subject to any selection rules. Moreover, the newly predicted forbidden transitions, which emerge only in the context of coupled H{sub 2} translation-rotation (TR) dynamics, have been confirmed experimentally. However, a simple physical understanding, e.g., based on group theory, has been heretofore lacking. This is provided in the present paper, in which we (1) derive the correct symmetry group for the H{sub 2}@C{sub 60} TR Hamiltonian and eigenstates;more » (2) complete the INS selection rule, and show that the set of forbidden transitions is actually much larger than previously believed; and (3) evaluate previous theoretical and experimental results, in light of the new findings.« less

Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-06-01

There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

Prediction of Disease Case Severity Level To Determine INA CBGs Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puspitorini, Sukma; Kusumadewi, Sri; Rosita, Linda

2017-03-01

Indonesian Case-Based Groups (INA CBGs) is case-mix payment system using software grouper application. INA CBGs consisting of four digits code where the last digits indicating the severity level of disease cases. Severity level influence by secondary diagnosis (complications and co-morbidity) related to resource intensity level. It is medical resources used to treat a hospitalized patient. Objectives of this research is developing decision support system to predict severity level of disease cases and illustrate INA CBGs rate by using data mining decision tree classification model. Primary diagnosis (DU), first secondary diagnosis (DS 1), and second secondary diagnosis (DS 2) are attributes that used as input of severity level. The training process using C4.5 algorithm and the rules will represent in the IF-THEN form. Credibility of the system analyzed through testing process and confusion matrix present the results. Outcome of this research shows that first secondary diagnosis influence significant to form severity level predicting rules from new disease cases and INA CBGs rate illustration.

Adaptive time-variant models for fuzzy-time-series forecasting.

PubMed

Wong, Wai-Keung; Bai, Enjian; Chu, Alice Wai-Ching

2010-12-01

A fuzzy time series has been applied to the prediction of enrollment, temperature, stock indices, and other domains. Related studies mainly focus on three factors, namely, the partition of discourse, the content of forecasting rules, and the methods of defuzzification, all of which greatly influence the prediction accuracy of forecasting models. These studies use fixed analysis window sizes for forecasting. In this paper, an adaptive time-variant fuzzy-time-series forecasting model (ATVF) is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model automatically adapts the analysis window size of fuzzy time series based on the prediction accuracy in the training phase and uses heuristic rules to generate forecasting values in the testing phase. The performance of the ATVF model is tested using both simulated and actual time series including the enrollments at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). The experiment results show that the proposed ATVF model achieves a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy as compared to other fuzzy-time-series forecasting models.

Learning to exploit a hidden predictor in skill acquisition: Tight linkage to conscious awareness.

PubMed

Tran, Randy; Pashler, Harold

2017-01-01

It is often assumed that implicit learning of skills based on predictive relationships proceeds independently of awareness. To test this idea, four groups of subjects played a game in which a fast-moving "demon" made a brief appearance at the bottom of the computer screen, then disappeared behind a V-shaped occluder, and finally re-appeared briefly on either the upper-left or upper-right quadrant of the screen. Points were scored by clicking on the demon during the final reappearance phase. Demons differed in several visible characteristics including color, horn height and eye size. For some subjects, horn height perfectly predicted which side the demon would reappear on. For subjects not told the rule, the subset who demonstrated at the end of the experiment that they had spontaneously discovered the rule showed strong evidence of exploiting it by anticipating the demon's arrival and laying in wait for it. Those who could not verbalize the rule performed no better than a control group for whom the demons moved unpredictably. The implications of this tight linkage between conscious awareness and implicit skill learning are discussed.

Assessment of Solder Joint Fatigue Life Under Realistic Service Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamasha, Sa'd.; Jaradat, Younis; Qasaimeh, Awni; Obaidat, Mazin; Borgesen, Peter

2014-12-01

The behavior of lead-free solder alloys under complex loading scenarios is still not well understood. Common damage accumulation rules fail to account for strong effects of variations in cycling amplitude, and random vibration test results cannot be interpreted in terms of performance under realistic service conditions. This is a result of the effects of cycling parameters on materials properties. These effects are not yet fully understood or quantitatively predictable, preventing modeling based on parameters such as strain, work, or entropy. Depending on the actual spectrum of amplitudes, Miner's rule of linear damage accumulation has been shown to overestimate life by more than an order of magnitude, and greater errors are predicted for other combinations. Consequences may be particularly critical for so-called environmental stress screening. Damage accumulation has, however, been shown to scale with the inelastic work done, even if amplitudes vary. This and the observation of effects of loading history on subsequent work per cycle provide for a modified damage accumulation rule which allows for the prediction of life. Individual joints of four different Sn-Ag-Cu-based solder alloys (SAC305, SAC105, SAC-Ni, and SACXplus) were cycled in shear at room temperature, alternating between two different amplitudes while monitoring the evolution of the effective stiffness and work per cycle. This helped elucidate general trends and behaviors that are expected to occur in vibrations of microelectronics assemblies. Deviations from Miner's rule varied systematically with the combination of amplitudes, the sequences of cycles, and the strain rates in each. The severity of deviations also varied systematically with Ag content in the solder, but major effects were observed for all the alloys. A systematic analysis was conducted to assess whether scenarios might exist in which the more fatigue-resistant high-Ag alloys would fail sooner than the lower-Ag ones.

Fuzzy rule-based forecast of meteorological drought in western Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou; Acar, Reşat

2018-01-01

Understanding the causes of rainfall anomalies in the West African Sahel to effectively predict drought events remains a challenge. The physical mechanisms that influence precipitation in this region are complex, uncertain, and imprecise in nature. Fuzzy logic techniques are renowned to be highly efficient in modeling such dynamics. This paper attempts to forecast meteorological drought in Western Niger using fuzzy rule-based modeling techniques. The 3-month scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) of four rainfall stations was used as predictand. Monthly data of southern oscillation index (SOI), South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), and Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP), sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), were used as predictors. Fuzzy rules and membership functions were generated using fuzzy c-means clustering approach, expert decision, and literature review. For a minimum lead time of 1 month, the model has a coefficient of determination R 2 between 0.80 and 0.88, mean square error (MSE) below 0.17, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.79 and 0.87. The empirical frequency distributions of the predicted and the observed drought classes are equal at the 99% of confidence level based on two-sample t test. Results also revealed the discrepancy in the influence of SOI and SLP on drought occurrence at the four stations while the effect of SST and RH are space independent, being both significantly correlated (at α < 0.05 level) to the SPI-3. Moreover, the implemented fuzzy model compared to decision tree-based forecast model shows better forecast skills.

Impact of flow routing on catchment area calculations, slope estimates, and numerical simulations of landscape development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelef, Eitan; Hilley, George E.

2013-12-01

Flow routing across real or modeled topography determines the modeled discharge and wetness index and thus plays a central role in predicting surface lowering rate, runoff generation, likelihood of slope failure, and transition from hillslope to channel forming processes. In this contribution, we compare commonly used flow-routing rules as well as a new routing rule, to commonly used benchmarks. We also compare results for different routing rules using Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) topography to explore the impact of different flow-routing schemes on inferring the generation of saturation overland flow and the transition between hillslope to channel forming processes, as well as on location of saturation overland flow. Finally, we examined the impact of flow-routing and slope-calculation rules on modeled topography produced by Geomorphic Transport Law (GTL)-based simulations. We found that different rules produce substantive differences in the structure of the modeled topography and flow patterns over ALSM data. Our results highlight the impact of flow-routing and slope-calculation rules on modeled topography, as well as on calculated geomorphic metrics across real landscapes. As such, studies that use a variety of routing rules to analyze and simulate topography are necessary to determine those aspects that most strongly depend on a chosen routing rule.

Classification and disease prediction via mathematical programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eva K.; Wu, Tsung-Lin

2007-11-01

In this chapter, we present classification models based on mathematical programming approaches. We first provide an overview on various mathematical programming approaches, including linear programming, mixed integer programming, nonlinear programming and support vector machines. Next, we present our effort of novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule) and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multigroup prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; multistage discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular degeneracy and tumor metastasis; prediction of protein localization sites; and pattern recognition of satellite images in classification of soil types. In all these applications, the predictive model yields correct classification rates ranging from 80% to 100%. This provides motivation for pursuing its use as a medical diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making tool.

Experimental evidence for excess entropy discontinuities in glass-forming solutions.

PubMed

Lienhard, Daniel M; Zobrist, Bernhard; Zuend, Andreas; Krieger, Ulrich K; Peter, Thomas

2012-02-21

Glass transition temperatures T(g) are investigated in aqueous binary and multi-component solutions consisting of citric acid, calcium nitrate (Ca(NO(3))(2)), malonic acid, raffinose, and ammonium bisulfate (NH(4)HSO(4)) using a differential scanning calorimeter. Based on measured glass transition temperatures of binary aqueous mixtures and fitted binary coefficients, the T(g) of multi-component systems can be predicted using mixing rules. However, the experimentally observed T(g) in multi-component solutions show considerable deviations from two theoretical approaches considered. The deviations from these predictions are explained in terms of the molar excess mixing entropy difference between the supercooled liquid and glassy state at T(g). The multi-component mixtures involve contributions to these excess mixing entropies that the mixing rules do not take into account. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

A rule of unity for human intestinal absorption 3: Application to pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Patel, Raj B; Yalkowsky, Samuel H

2018-02-01

The rule of unity is based on a simple absorption parameter, Π, that can accurately predict whether or not an orally administered drug will be well absorbed or poorly absorbed. The intrinsic aqueous solubility and octanol-water partition coefficient, along with the drug dose are used to calculate Π. We show that a single delineator value for Π exist that can distinguish whether a drug is likely to be well absorbed (FA ≥ 0.5) or poorly absorbed (FA < 0.5) at any specified dose. The model is shown to give 82.5% correct predictions for over 938 pharmaceuticals. The maximum well-absorbed dose (i.e. the maximum dose that will be more than 50% absorbed) calculated using this model can be utilized as a guideline for drug design and synthesis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-factorial analysis of class prediction error: estimating optimal number of biomarkers for various classification rules.

PubMed

Khondoker, Mizanur R; Bachmann, Till T; Mewissen, Muriel; Dickinson, Paul; Dobrzelecki, Bartosz; Campbell, Colin J; Mount, Andrew R; Walton, Anthony J; Crain, Jason; Schulze, Holger; Giraud, Gerard; Ross, Alan J; Ciani, Ilenia; Ember, Stuart W J; Tlili, Chaker; Terry, Jonathan G; Grant, Eilidh; McDonnell, Nicola; Ghazal, Peter

2010-12-01

Machine learning and statistical model based classifiers have increasingly been used with more complex and high dimensional biological data obtained from high-throughput technologies. Understanding the impact of various factors associated with large and complex microarray datasets on the predictive performance of classifiers is computationally intensive, under investigated, yet vital in determining the optimal number of biomarkers for various classification purposes aimed towards improved detection, diagnosis, and therapeutic monitoring of diseases. We investigate the impact of microarray based data characteristics on the predictive performance for various classification rules using simulation studies. Our investigation using Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-Nearest Neighbour shows that the predictive performance of classifiers is strongly influenced by training set size, biological and technical variability, replication, fold change and correlation between biomarkers. Optimal number of biomarkers for a classification problem should therefore be estimated taking account of the impact of all these factors. A database of average generalization errors is built for various combinations of these factors. The database of generalization errors can be used for estimating the optimal number of biomarkers for given levels of predictive accuracy as a function of these factors. Examples show that curves from actual biological data resemble that of simulated data with corresponding levels of data characteristics. An R package optBiomarker implementing the method is freely available for academic use from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (http://www.cran.r-project.org/web/packages/optBiomarker/).

Predicting nuclear gene coalescence from mitochondrial data: the three-times rule.

PubMed

Palumbi, S R; Cipriano, F; Hare, M P

2001-05-01

Coalescence theory predicts when genetic drift at nuclear loci will result in fixation of sequence differences to produce monophyletic gene trees. However, the theory is difficult to apply to particular taxa because it hinges on genetically effective population size, which is generally unknown. Neutral theory also predicts that evolution of monophyly will be four times slower in nuclear than in mitochondrial genes primarily because genetic drift is slower at nuclear loci. Variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) within and between species has been studied extensively, but can these mtDNA data be used to predict coalescence in nuclear loci? Comparison of neutral theories of coalescence of mitochondrial and nuclear loci suggests a simple rule of thumb. The "three-times rule" states that, on average, most nuclear loci will be monophyletic when the branch length leading to the mtDNA sequences of a species is three times longer than the average mtDNA sequence diversity observed within that species. A test using mitochondrial and nuclear intron data from seven species of whales and dolphins suggests general agreement with predictions of the three-times rule. We define the coalescence ratio as the mitochondrial branch length for a species divided by intraspecific mtDNA diversity. We show that species with high coalescence ratios show nuclear monophyly, whereas species with low ratios have polyphyletic nuclear gene trees. As expected, species with intermediate coalescence ratios show a variety of patterns. Especially at very high or low coalescence ratios, the three-times rule predicts nuclear gene patterns that can help detect the action of selection. The three-times rule may be useful as an empirical benchmark for evaluating evolutionary processes occurring at multiple loci.

Prediction of Land use changes using CA in GIS Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiavarz Moghaddam, H.; Samadzadegan, F.

2009-04-01

Urban growth is a typical self-organized system that results from the interaction between three defined systems; developed urban system, natural non-urban system and planned urban system. Urban growth simulation for an artificial city is carried out first. It evaluates a number of urban sprawl parameters including the size and shape of neighborhood besides testing different types of constraints on urban growth simulation. The results indicate that circular-type neighborhood shows smoother but faster urban growth as compared to nine-cell Moore neighborhood. Cellular Automata is proved to be very efficient in simulating the urban growth simulation over time. The strength of this technology comes from the ability of urban modeler to implement the growth simulation model, evaluating the results and presenting the output simulation results in visual interpretable environment. Artificial city simulation model provides an excellent environment to test a number of simulation parameters such as neighborhood influence on growth results and constraints role in driving the urban growth .Also, CA rules definition is critical stage in simulating the urban growth pattern in a close manner to reality. CA urban growth simulation and prediction of Tehran over the last four decades succeeds to simulate specified tested growth years at a high accuracy level. Some real data layer have been used in the CA simulation training phase such as 1995 while others used for testing the prediction results such as 2002. Tuning the CA growth rules is important through comparing the simulated images with the real data to obtain feedback. An important notice is that CA rules need also to be modified over time to adapt to the urban growth pattern. The evaluation method used on region basis has its advantage in covering the spatial distribution component of the urban growth process. Next step includes running the developed CA simulation over classified raster data for three years in a developed ArcGIS extention. A set of crisp rules are defined and calibrated based on real urban growth pattern. Uncertainty analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated results as compared to the historical real data. Evaluation shows promising results represented by the high average accuracies achieved. The average accuracy for the predicted growth images 1964 and 2002 is over 80 %. Modifying CA growth rules over time to match the growth pattern changes is important to obtain accurate simulation. This modification is based on the urban growth relationship for Tehran over time as can be seen in the historical raster data. The feedback obtained from comparing the simulated and real data is crucial in identifying the optimal set of CA rules for reliable simulation and calibrating growth steps.

Discrimination-Aware Classifiers for Student Performance Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Ling; Koprinska, Irena; Liu, Wei

2015-01-01

In this paper we consider discrimination-aware classification of educational data. Mining and using rules that distinguish groups of students based on sensitive attributes such as gender and nationality may lead to discrimination. It is desirable to keep the sensitive attributes during the training of a classifier to avoid information loss but…

External Validation of the Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in British Columbia.

PubMed

Grunau, Brian; Taylor, John; Scheuermeyer, Frank X; Stenstrom, Robert; Dick, William; Kawano, Takahisa; Barbic, David; Drennan, Ian; Christenson, Jim

2017-09-01

The Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule (TOR Rule) was developed to identify out-of-hospital cardiac arrests eligible for field termination of resuscitation, avoiding futile transportation to the hospital. The validity of the rule in emergency medical services (EMS) systems that do not routinely transport out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients to the hospital is unknown. We seek to validate the TOR Rule in British Columbia. This study included consecutive, nontraumatic, adult, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests treated by EMS in British Columbia from April 2011 to September 2015. We excluded patients with active do-not-resuscitate orders and those with missing data. Following consensus guidelines, we examined the validity of the TOR Rule after 6 minutes of resuscitation (to approximate three 2-minute cycles of resuscitation). To ascertain rule performance at the different time junctures, we recalculated TOR Rule classification accuracy at subsequent 1-minute resuscitation increments. Of 6,994 consecutive, adult, EMS-treated, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, overall survival was 15%. At 6 minutes of resuscitation, rule performance was sensitivity 0.72, specificity 0.91, positive predictive value 0.98, and negative predictive value 0.36. The TOR Rule recommended care termination for 4,367 patients (62%); of these, 92 survived to hospital discharge (false-positive rate 2.1%; 95% confidence interval 1.7% to 2.5%); however, this proportion steadily decreased with later application. The TOR Rule recommended continuation of resuscitation in 2,627 patients (38%); of these, 1,674 died (false-negative rate 64%; 95% confidence interval 62% to 66%). Compared with 6-minute application, test characteristics at 30 minutes demonstrated nearly perfect positive predictive value (1.0) and specificity (1.0) but a lower sensitivity (0.46) and negative predictive value (0.25). In this cohort of adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, the TOR Rule applied at 6 minutes falsely recommended care termination for 2.1% of patients; however, this decreased with later application. Systems using the TOR Rule to cease resuscitation in the field should consider rule application at points later than 6 minutes. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exposure to Family Violence and Internalizing and Externalizing Problems Among Spanish Adolescents.

PubMed

Izaguirre, Ainhoa; Calvete, Esther

2018-04-01

Exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment may have devastating consequences on children's development. The aim of this research was to examine the predictive associations between exposure to violence at home (witnessing violence against the mother and/or direct victimization by the parents) and adolescent internalizing and externalizing problems. A total of 613 Spanish adolescents (13-18 years) took part in this study. Results indicate that psychological victimization by the parents predicted an increase in anxious/depressive symptoms, aggressive and rule-breaking behavior, and substance abuse at Time 2. In addition, rule-breaking behavior predicted an increase in adolescents' substance abuse at Time 2. Concerning gender, psychological victimization predicted an increase in anxiety/depression, aggressive behavior, rule-breaking behavior, and substance abuse in boys; whereas in girls, psychological victimization only predicted an increase in anxiety/depression.

Preschoolers can infer general rules governing fantastical events in fiction.

PubMed

Van de Vondervoort, Julia W; Friedman, Ori

2014-05-01

Young children are frequently exposed to fantastic fiction. How do they make sense of the unrealistic and impossible events that occur in such fiction? Although children could view such events as isolated episodes, the present experiments suggest that children use such events to infer general fantasy rules. In 2 experiments, 2- to 4-year-olds were shown scenarios in which 2 animals behaved unrealistically (N = 78 in Experiment 1, N = 94 in Experiment 2). When asked to predict how other animals in the fiction would behave, children predicted novel behaviors consistent with the nature of the fiction. These findings suggest that preschoolers can infer the general rules that govern the events and entities in fantastic fiction and can use these rules to predict what events will happen in the fiction. The findings also provide evidence that children may infer fantasy rules at a more superordinate level than the basic level. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Logical-rule models of classification response times: a synthesis of mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches.

PubMed

Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R; Nosofsky, Robert M

2010-04-01

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli along a set of component dimensions. Those independent decisions are then combined via logical rules to determine the overall categorization response. The time course of the independent decisions is modeled via random-walk processes operating along individual dimensions. Alternative mental architectures are used as mechanisms for combining the independent decisions to implement the logical rules. We derive fundamental qualitative contrasts for distinguishing among the predictions of the rule models and major alternative models of classification RT. We also use the models to predict detailed RT-distribution data associated with individual stimuli in tasks of speeded perceptual classification. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

When high working memory capacity is and is not beneficial for predicting nonlinear processes.

PubMed

Fischer, Helen; Holt, Daniel V

2017-04-01

Predicting the development of dynamic processes is vital in many areas of life. Previous findings are inconclusive as to whether higher working memory capacity (WMC) is always associated with using more accurate prediction strategies, or whether higher WMC can also be associated with using overly complex strategies that do not improve accuracy. In this study, participants predicted a range of systematically varied nonlinear processes based on exponential functions where prediction accuracy could or could not be enhanced using well-calibrated rules. Results indicate that higher WMC participants seem to rely more on well-calibrated strategies, leading to more accurate predictions for processes with highly nonlinear trajectories in the prediction region. Predictions of lower WMC participants, in contrast, point toward an increased use of simple exemplar-based prediction strategies, which perform just as well as more complex strategies when the prediction region is approximately linear. These results imply that with respect to predicting dynamic processes, working memory capacity limits are not generally a strength or a weakness, but that this depends on the process to be predicted.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

PubMed

Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

2016-01-01

Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

Supervised Learning in Spiking Neural Networks for Precise Temporal Encoding.

PubMed

Gardner, Brian; Grüning, André

2016-01-01

Precise spike timing as a means to encode information in neural networks is biologically supported, and is advantageous over frequency-based codes by processing input features on a much shorter time-scale. For these reasons, much recent attention has been focused on the development of supervised learning rules for spiking neural networks that utilise a temporal coding scheme. However, despite significant progress in this area, there still lack rules that have a theoretical basis, and yet can be considered biologically relevant. Here we examine the general conditions under which synaptic plasticity most effectively takes place to support the supervised learning of a precise temporal code. As part of our analysis we examine two spike-based learning methods: one of which relies on an instantaneous error signal to modify synaptic weights in a network (INST rule), and the other one relying on a filtered error signal for smoother synaptic weight modifications (FILT rule). We test the accuracy of the solutions provided by each rule with respect to their temporal encoding precision, and then measure the maximum number of input patterns they can learn to memorise using the precise timings of individual spikes as an indication of their storage capacity. Our results demonstrate the high performance of the FILT rule in most cases, underpinned by the rule's error-filtering mechanism, which is predicted to provide smooth convergence towards a desired solution during learning. We also find the FILT rule to be most efficient at performing input pattern memorisations, and most noticeably when patterns are identified using spikes with sub-millisecond temporal precision. In comparison with existing work, we determine the performance of the FILT rule to be consistent with that of the highly efficient E-learning Chronotron rule, but with the distinct advantage that our FILT rule is also implementable as an online method for increased biological realism.

Prediction of properties of intraply hybrid composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

1979-01-01

Equations based on the mixtures rule are presented for predicting the physical, thermal, hygral, and mechanical properties of unidirectional intraply hybrid composites (UIHC) from the corresponding properties of their constituent composites. Bounds were derived for uniaxial longitudinal strengths, tension, compression, and flexure of UIHC. The equations predict shear and flexural properties which agree with experimental data from UIHC. Use of these equations in a composites mechanics computer code predicted flexural moduli which agree with experimental data from various intraply hybrid angleplied laminates (IHAL). It is indicated, briefly, how these equations can be used in conjunction with composite mechanics and structural analysis during the analysis/design process.

Confirming a predicted selection rule in inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy: the quantum translator-rotator H2 entrapped inside C60.

PubMed

Xu, Minzhong; Jiménez-Ruiz, Mónica; Johnson, Mark R; Rols, Stéphane; Ye, Shufeng; Carravetta, Marina; Denning, Mark S; Lei, Xuegong; Bačić, Zlatko; Horsewill, Anthony J

2014-09-19

We report an inelastic neutron scattering (INS) study of a H2 molecule encapsulated inside the fullerene C60 which confirms the recently predicted selection rule, the first to be established for the INS spectroscopy of aperiodic, discrete molecular compounds. Several transitions from the ground state of para-H2 to certain excited translation-rotation states, forbidden according to the selection rule, are systematically absent from the INS spectra, thus validating the selection rule with a high degree of confidence. Its confirmation sets a precedent, as it runs counter to the widely held view that the INS spectroscopy of molecular compounds is not subject to any selection rules.

[The Amsterdam wrist rules: the multicenter prospective derivation and external validation of a clinical decision rule for the use of radiography in acute wrist trauma].

PubMed

Walenkamp, Monique M J; Bentohami, Abdelali; Slaar, Annelie; Beerekamp, M S H Suzan; Maas, Mario; Jager, L C Cara; Sosef, Nico L; van Velde, Romuald; Ultee, Jan M; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Goslings, J C Carel; Schep, Niels W L

2016-01-01

Although only 39% of patients with wrist trauma have sustained a fracture, the majority of patients is routinely referred for radiography. The purpose of this study was to derive and externally validate a clinical decision rule that selects patients with acute wrist trauma in the Emergency Department (ED) for radiography. This multicenter prospective study consisted of three components: (1) derivation of a clinical prediction model for detecting wrist fractures in patients following wrist trauma; (2) external validation of this model; and (3) design of a clinical decision rule. The study was conducted in the EDs of five Dutch hospitals: one academic hospital (derivation cohort) and four regional hospitals (external validation cohort). We included all adult patients with acute wrist trauma. The main outcome was fracture of the wrist (distal radius, distal ulna or carpal bones) diagnosed on conventional X-rays. A total of 882 patients were analyzed; 487 in the derivation cohort and 395 in the validation cohort. We derived a clinical prediction model with eight variables: age; sex, swelling of the wrist; swelling of the anatomical snuffbox, visible deformation; distal radius tender to palpation; pain on radial deviation and painful axial compression of the thumb. The Area Under the Curve at external validation of this model was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85). The sensitivity and specificity of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules (AWR) in the external validation cohort were 98% (95% CI: 95-99%) and 21% (95% CI: 15%-28). The negative predictive value was 90% (95% CI: 81-99%). The Amsterdam Wrist Rules is a clinical prediction rule with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value for fractures of the wrist. Although external validation showed low specificity and 100 % sensitivity could not be achieved, the Amsterdam Wrist Rules can provide physicians in the Emergency Department with a useful screening tool to select patients with acute wrist trauma for radiography. The upcoming implementation study will further reveal the impact of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules on the anticipated reduction of X-rays requested, missed fractures, Emergency Department waiting times and health care costs.

Self-Adaptive Prediction of Cloud Resource Demands Using Ensemble Model and Subtractive-Fuzzy Clustering Based Fuzzy Neural Network

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhijia; Zhu, Yuanchang; Di, Yanqiang; Feng, Shaochong

2015-01-01

In IaaS (infrastructure as a service) cloud environment, users are provisioned with virtual machines (VMs). To allocate resources for users dynamically and effectively, accurate resource demands predicting is essential. For this purpose, this paper proposes a self-adaptive prediction method using ensemble model and subtractive-fuzzy clustering based fuzzy neural network (ESFCFNN). We analyze the characters of user preferences and demands. Then the architecture of the prediction model is constructed. We adopt some base predictors to compose the ensemble model. Then the structure and learning algorithm of fuzzy neural network is researched. To obtain the number of fuzzy rules and the initial value of the premise and consequent parameters, this paper proposes the fuzzy c-means combined with subtractive clustering algorithm, that is, the subtractive-fuzzy clustering. Finally, we adopt different criteria to evaluate the proposed method. The experiment results show that the method is accurate and effective in predicting the resource demands. PMID:25691896

Use of Attribute Driven Incremental Discretization and Logic Learning Machine to build a prognostic classifier for neuroblastoma patients.

PubMed

Cangelosi, Davide; Muselli, Marco; Parodi, Stefano; Blengio, Fabiola; Becherini, Pamela; Versteeg, Rogier; Conte, Massimo; Varesio, Luigi

2014-01-01

Cancer patient's outcome is written, in part, in the gene expression profile of the tumor. We previously identified a 62-probe sets signature (NB-hypo) to identify tissue hypoxia in neuroblastoma tumors and showed that NB-hypo stratified neuroblastoma patients in good and poor outcome 1. It was important to develop a prognostic classifier to cluster patients into risk groups benefiting of defined therapeutic approaches. Novel classification and data discretization approaches can be instrumental for the generation of accurate predictors and robust tools for clinical decision support. We explored the application to gene expression data of Rulex, a novel software suite including the Attribute Driven Incremental Discretization technique for transforming continuous variables into simplified discrete ones and the Logic Learning Machine model for intelligible rule generation. We applied Rulex components to the problem of predicting the outcome of neuroblastoma patients on the bases of 62 probe sets NB-hypo gene expression signature. The resulting classifier consisted in 9 rules utilizing mainly two conditions of the relative expression of 11 probe sets. These rules were very effective predictors, as shown in an independent validation set, demonstrating the validity of the LLM algorithm applied to microarray data and patients' classification. The LLM performed as efficiently as Prediction Analysis of Microarray and Support Vector Machine, and outperformed other learning algorithms such as C4.5. Rulex carried out a feature selection by selecting a new signature (NB-hypo-II) of 11 probe sets that turned out to be the most relevant in predicting outcome among the 62 of the NB-hypo signature. Rules are easily interpretable as they involve only few conditions. Our findings provided evidence that the application of Rulex to the expression values of NB-hypo signature created a set of accurate, high quality, consistent and interpretable rules for the prediction of neuroblastoma patients' outcome. We identified the Rulex weighted classification as a flexible tool that can support clinical decisions. For these reasons, we consider Rulex to be a useful tool for cancer classification from microarray gene expression data.

Phases, phase equilibria, and phase rules in low-dimensional systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frolov, T., E-mail: timfrol@berkeley.edu; Mishin, Y., E-mail: ymishin@gmu.edu

2015-07-28

We present a unified approach to thermodynamic description of one, two, and three dimensional phases and phase transformations among them. The approach is based on a rigorous definition of a phase applicable to thermodynamic systems of any dimensionality. Within this approach, the same thermodynamic formalism can be applied for the description of phase transformations in bulk systems, interfaces, and line defects separating interface phases. For both lines and interfaces, we rigorously derive an adsorption equation, the phase coexistence equations, and other thermodynamic relations expressed in terms of generalized line and interface excess quantities. As a generalization of the Gibbs phasemore » rule for bulk phases, we derive phase rules for lines and interfaces and predict the maximum number of phases than may coexist in systems of the respective dimensionality.« less

Hospitalization for community-acquired febrile urinary tract infection: validation and impact assessment of a clinical prediction rule.

PubMed

Stalenhoef, Janneke E; van der Starre, Willize E; Vollaard, Albert M; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Delfos, Nathalie M; Leyten, Eliane M S; Koster, Ted; Ablij, Hans C; Van't Wout, Jan W; van Dissel, Jaap T; van Nieuwkoop, Cees

2017-06-06

There is a lack of severity assessment tools to identify adults presenting with febrile urinary tract infection (FUTI) at risk for complicated outcome and guide admission policy. We aimed to validate the Prediction Rule for Admission policy in Complicated urinary Tract InfeCtion LEiden (PRACTICE), a modified form of the pneumonia severity index, and to subsequentially assess its use in clinical practice. A prospective observational multicenter study for model validation (2004-2009), followed by a multicenter controlled clinical trial with stepped wedge cluster-randomization for impact assessment (2010-2014), with a follow up of 3 months. Paricipants were 1157 consecutive patients with a presumptive diagnosis of acute febrile UTI (787 in validation cohort and 370 in the randomized trial), enrolled at emergency departments of 7 hospitals and 35 primary care centers in the Netherlands. The clinical prediction rule contained 12 predictors of complicated course. In the randomized trial the PRACTICE included guidance on hospitalization for high risk (>100 points) and home discharge for low risk patients (<75 points), in the control period the standard policy regarding hospital admission was applied. Main outcomes were effectiveness of the clinical prediction rule, as measured by primary hospital admission rate, and its safety, as measured by the rate of low-risk patients who needed to be hospitalized for FUTI after initial home-based treatment, and 30-day mortality. A total of 370 patients were included in the randomized trial, 237 in the control period and 133 in the intervention period. Use of PRACTICE significantly reduced the primary hospitalization rate (from 219/237, 92%, in the control group to 96/133, 72%, in the intervention group, p < 0.01). The secondary hospital admission rate after initial outpatient treatment was 6% in control patients and 27% in intervention patients (1/17 and 10/37; p < 0.001). Although the proposed PRACTICE prediction rule is associated with a lower number of hospital admissions of patients presenting to the ED with presumptive febrile urinary tract infection, futher improvement is necessary to reduce the occurrence of secondary hospital admissions. NTR4480 http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=4480 , registered retrospectively 25 mrt 2014 (during enrollment of subjects).

Similarity-Dissimilarity Competition in Disjunctive Classification Tasks

PubMed Central

Mathy, Fabien; Haladjian, Harry H.; Laurent, Eric; Goldstone, Robert L.

2013-01-01

Typical disjunctive artificial classification tasks require participants to sort stimuli according to rules such as “x likes cars only when black and coupe OR white and SUV.” For categories like this, increasing the salience of the diagnostic dimensions has two simultaneous effects: increasing the distance between members of the same category and increasing the distance between members of opposite categories. Potentially, these two effects respectively hinder and facilitate classification learning, leading to competing predictions for learning. Increasing saliency may lead to members of the same category to be considered less similar, while the members of separate categories might be considered more dissimilar. This implies a similarity-dissimilarity competition between two basic classification processes. When focusing on sub-category similarity, one would expect more difficult classification when members of the same category become less similar (disregarding the increase of between-category dissimilarity); however, the between-category dissimilarity increase predicts a less difficult classification. Our categorization study suggests that participants rely more on using dissimilarities between opposite categories than finding similarities between sub-categories. We connect our results to rule- and exemplar-based classification models. The pattern of influences of within- and between-category similarities are challenging for simple single-process categorization systems based on rules or exemplars. Instead, our results suggest that either these processes should be integrated in a hybrid model, or that category learning operates by forming clusters within each category. PMID:23403979

A tweaking principle for executive control: neuronal circuit mechanism for rule-based task switching and conflict resolution.

PubMed

Ardid, Salva; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2013-12-11

A hallmark of executive control is the brain's agility to shift between different tasks depending on the behavioral rule currently in play. In this work, we propose a "tweaking hypothesis" for task switching: a weak rule signal provides a small bias that is dramatically amplified by reverberating attractor dynamics in neural circuits for stimulus categorization and action selection, leading to an all-or-none reconfiguration of sensory-motor mapping. Based on this principle, we developed a biologically realistic model with multiple modules for task switching. We found that the model quantitatively accounts for complex task switching behavior: switch cost, congruency effect, and task-response interaction; as well as monkey's single-neuron activity associated with task switching. The model yields several testable predictions, in particular, that category-selective neurons play a key role in resolving sensory-motor conflict. This work represents a neural circuit model for task switching and sheds insights in the brain mechanism of a fundamental cognitive capability.

Predicting the threshold of pulse-train electrical stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

PubMed

Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

2004-04-01

The incorporation of low levels of noise into an electrical stimulus has been shown to improve auditory thresholds in some human subjects (Zeng et al., 2000). In this paper, thresholds for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli are predicted utilizing a stochastic neural-behavioral model of ensemble fiber responses to bi-phasic stimuli. The neural refractory effect is described using a Markov model for a noise-free pulse-train stimulus and a closed-form solution for the steady-state neural response is provided. For noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli, a recursive method using the conditional probability is utilized to track the neural responses to each successive pulse. A neural spike count rule has been presented for both threshold and intensity discrimination under the assumption that auditory perception occurs via integration over a relatively long time period (Bruce et al., 1999). An alternative approach originates from the hypothesis of the multilook model (Viemeister and Wakefield, 1991), which argues that auditory perception is based on several shorter time integrations and may suggest an NofM model for prediction of pulse-train threshold. This motivates analyzing the neural response to each individual pulse within a pulse train, which is considered to be the brief look. A logarithmic rule is hypothesized for pulse-train threshold. Predictions from the multilook model are shown to match trends in psychophysical data for noise-free stimuli that are not always matched by the long-time integration rule. Theoretical predictions indicate that threshold decreases as noise variance increases. Theoretical models of the neural response to pulse-train stimuli not only reduce calculational overhead but also facilitate utilization of signal detection theory and are easily extended to multichannel psychophysical tasks.

An evaluation of rise time characterization and prediction methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Leick D.

1994-01-01

One common method of extrapolating sonic boom waveforms from aircraft to ground is to calculate the nonlinear distortion, and then add a rise time to each shock by a simple empirical rule. One common rule is the '3 over P' rule which calculates the rise time in milliseconds as three divided by the shock amplitude in psf. This rule was compared with the results of ZEPHYRUS, a comprehensive algorithm which calculates sonic boom propagation and extrapolation with the combined effects of nonlinearity, attenuation, dispersion, geometric spreading, and refraction in a stratified atmosphere. It is shown there that the simple empirical rule considerably overestimates the rise time estimate. In addition, the empirical rule does not account for variations in the rise time due to humidity variation or propagation history. It is also demonstrated that the rise time is only an approximate indicator of perceived loudness. Three waveforms with identical characteristics (shock placement, amplitude, and rise time), but with different shock shapes, are shown to give different calculated loudness. This paper is based in part on work performed at the Applied Research Laboratories, the University of Texas at Austin, and supported by NASA Langley.

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought part-II: a logical reasoning evidence-based method for spring predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Wulan, Wulan; Yu, Xiao; Yang, Zelong; Gao, Jing; Hua, Weiqi; Yang, Peng; Si, Yaobing

2018-05-01

Spring precipitation is the predominant factor that controls meteorological drought in Inner Mongolia (IM), China. This study used the anomaly percentage of spring precipitation (PAP) as a drought index to measure spring drought. A scheme for forecasting seasonal drought was designed based on evidence of spring drought occurrence and speculative reasoning methods introduced in computer artificial intelligence theory. Forecast signals with sufficient lead-time for predictions of spring drought were extracted from eight crucial areas of oceans and 500-hPa geopotential height. Using standardized values, these signals were synthesized into three examples of spring drought evidence (SDE) depending on their primary effects on three major atmospheric circulation components of spring precipitation in IM: the western Pacific subtropical high, North Polar vortex, and East Asian trough. Thresholds for the SDE were determined following numerical analyses of the influential factors. Furthermore, five logical reasoning rules for distinguishing the occurrence of SDE were designed after examining all possible combined cases. The degree of confidence in the rules was determined based on estimations of their prior probabilities. Then, an optimized logical reasoning scheme was identified for judging the possibility of spring drought. The scheme was successful in hindcast predictions of 11 of the 16 (accuracy: 68.8%) spring droughts that have occurred during 1960-2009. Moreover, the accuracy ratio for the same period was 82.0% for drought (PAP ≤ -20%) or not (PAP > -20%). Predictions for the recent 6-year period (2010-2015) demonstrated successful outcomes.

A Conceptual Framework for Predicting Error in Complex Human-Machine Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

We present a Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection Rules-Model Human Processor (GOMS-MHP) style model-based approach to the problem of predicting human habit capture errors. Habit captures occur when the model fails to allocate limited cognitive resources to retrieve task-relevant information from memory. Lacking the unretrieved information, decision mechanisms act in accordance with implicit default assumptions, resulting in error when relied upon assumptions prove incorrect. The model helps interface designers identify situations in which such failures are especially likely.

A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, D J; Freedman, L S

1986-01-01

The 'textbook' approach to determining sample size in a clinical trial has some fundamental weaknesses which we discuss. We describe a new predictive method which takes account of prior clinical opinion about the treatment difference. The method adopts the point of clinical equivalence (determined by interviewing the clinical participants) as the null hypothesis. Decision rules at the end of the study are based on whether the interval estimate of the treatment difference (classical or Bayesian) includes the null hypothesis. The prior distribution is used to predict the probabilities of making the decisions to use one or other treatment or to reserve final judgement. It is recommended that sample size be chosen to control the predicted probability of the last of these decisions. An example is given from a multi-centre trial of superficial bladder cancer.

Validating the Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) and Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS) rules for the prediction of acute myocardial infarction in patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain.

PubMed

Greenslade, Jaimi H; Nayer, Robert; Parsonage, William; Doig, Shaela; Young, Joanna; Pickering, John W; Than, Martin; Hammett, Christopher; Cullen, Louise

2017-08-01

The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) rule and the Troponin-only MACS (T-MACS) rule risk stratify patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This observational study sought to validate and compare the MACS and T-MACS rules for assessment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively collected data from twoEDs in Australia and New Zealand were analysed. Patients were assigned a probability of ACS based on the MACS and T-MACS rules, incorporating high-sensitivity troponin T, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein, ECG results and clinical symptoms. Patients were then deemed very low risk, low risk, intermediate or high risk if their MACS probability was less than 2%, between 2% and 5%, between 5% and 95% and greater than 95%, respectively. The primary endpoint was 30-day diagnosis of AMI. The secondary endpoint was 30-day major adverse cardiac event (MACE) including AMI, revascularisation or coronary stenosis (>70%). Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated to assess the accuracy of the MACS and T-MACS rules. Of the 1244 patients, 114 (9.2%) were diagnosed with AMI and 163 (13.1%) with MACE. The MACS and T-MACS rules categorised 133 (10.7%) and 246 (19.8%) patients, respectively, as very low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge from the ED. There was one false negative case for both rules making sensitivity 99.1% (95.2%-100%). MACS and T-MACS accurately risk stratify very low risk patients. The T-MACS rule would allow for more patients to be discharged early. The potential for missed MACE events means that further outpatient testing for coronary artery disease may be required for patients identified as very low risk. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Impact of polymer film thickness and cavity size on polymer flow during embossing : towards process design rules for nanoimprint lithography.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schunk, Peter Randall; King, William P.; Sun, Amy Cha-Tien

2006-08-01

This paper presents continuum simulations of polymer flow during nanoimprint lithography (NIL). The simulations capture the underlying physics of polymer flow from the nanometer to millimeter length scale and examine geometry and thermophysical process quantities affecting cavity filling. Variations in embossing tool geometry and polymer film thickness during viscous flow distinguish different flow driving mechanisms. Three parameters can predict polymer deformation mode: cavity width to polymer thickness ratio, polymer supply ratio, and Capillary number. The ratio of cavity width to initial polymer film thickness determines vertically or laterally dominant deformation. The ratio of indenter width to residual film thickness measuresmore » polymer supply beneath the indenter which determines Stokes or squeeze flow. The local geometry ratios can predict a fill time based on laminar flow between plates, Stokes flow, or squeeze flow. Characteristic NIL capillary number based on geometry-dependent fill time distinguishes between capillary or viscous driven flows. The three parameters predict filling modes observed in published studies of NIL deformation over nanometer to millimeter length scales. The work seeks to establish process design rules for NIL and to provide tools for the rational design of NIL master templates, resist polymers, and process parameters.« less

Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

2014-01-01

Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

Supervised Learning in Spiking Neural Networks for Precise Temporal Encoding

PubMed Central

Gardner, Brian; Grüning, André

2016-01-01

Precise spike timing as a means to encode information in neural networks is biologically supported, and is advantageous over frequency-based codes by processing input features on a much shorter time-scale. For these reasons, much recent attention has been focused on the development of supervised learning rules for spiking neural networks that utilise a temporal coding scheme. However, despite significant progress in this area, there still lack rules that have a theoretical basis, and yet can be considered biologically relevant. Here we examine the general conditions under which synaptic plasticity most effectively takes place to support the supervised learning of a precise temporal code. As part of our analysis we examine two spike-based learning methods: one of which relies on an instantaneous error signal to modify synaptic weights in a network (INST rule), and the other one relying on a filtered error signal for smoother synaptic weight modifications (FILT rule). We test the accuracy of the solutions provided by each rule with respect to their temporal encoding precision, and then measure the maximum number of input patterns they can learn to memorise using the precise timings of individual spikes as an indication of their storage capacity. Our results demonstrate the high performance of the FILT rule in most cases, underpinned by the rule’s error-filtering mechanism, which is predicted to provide smooth convergence towards a desired solution during learning. We also find the FILT rule to be most efficient at performing input pattern memorisations, and most noticeably when patterns are identified using spikes with sub-millisecond temporal precision. In comparison with existing work, we determine the performance of the FILT rule to be consistent with that of the highly efficient E-learning Chronotron rule, but with the distinct advantage that our FILT rule is also implementable as an online method for increased biological realism. PMID:27532262

Assessment of fatigue life of remanufactured impeller based on FEA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Cao, Huajun; Liu, Hailong; Zhang, Yubo

2016-09-01

Predicting the fatigue life of remanufactured centrifugal compressor impellers is a critical problem. In this paper, the S-N curve data were obtained by combining experimentation and theory deduction. The load spectrum was compiled by the rain-flow counting method based on the comprehensive consideration of the centrifugal force, residual stress, and aerodynamic loads in the repair region. A fatigue life simulation model was built, and fatigue life was analyzed based on the fatigue cumulative damage rule. Although incapable of providing a high-precision prediction, the simulation results were useful for the analysis of fatigue life impact factors and fatigue fracture areas. Results showed that the load amplitude greatly affected fatigue life, the impeller was protected from running at over-speed, and the predicted fatigue life was satisfied within the next service cycle safely at the rated speed.

Development of clinical decision rules to predict recurrent shock in dengue

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Mortality from dengue infection is mostly due to shock. Among dengue patients with shock, approximately 30% have recurrent shock that requires a treatment change. Here, we report development of a clinical rule for use during a patient’s first shock episode to predict a recurrent shock episode. Methods The study was conducted in Center for Preventive Medicine in Vinh Long province and the Children’s Hospital No. 2 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We included 444 dengue patients with shock, 126 of whom had recurrent shock (28%). Univariate and multivariate analyses and a preprocessing method were used to evaluate and select 14 clinical and laboratory signs recorded at shock onset. Five variables (admission day, purpura/ecchymosis, ascites/pleural effusion, blood platelet count and pulse pressure) were finally trained and validated by a 10-fold validation strategy with 10 times of repetition, using a logistic regression model. Results The results showed that shorter admission day (fewer days prior to admission), purpura/ecchymosis, ascites/pleural effusion, low platelet count and narrow pulse pressure were independently associated with recurrent shock. Our logistic prediction model was capable of predicting recurrent shock when compared to the null method (P < 0.05) and was not outperformed by other prediction models. Our final scoring rule provided relatively good accuracy (AUC, 0.73; sensitivity and specificity, 68%). Score points derived from the logistic prediction model revealed identical accuracy with AUCs at 0.73. Using a cutoff value greater than −154.5, our simple scoring rule showed a sensitivity of 68.3% and a specificity of 68.2%. Conclusions Our simple clinical rule is not to replace clinical judgment, but to help clinicians predict recurrent shock during a patient’s first dengue shock episode. PMID:24295509

Extended Bright Bodies - Flight and Ground Software Challenges on the Cassini Mission at Saturn

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sung, Tina S.; Burk, Thomas A.

2016-01-01

Extended bright bodies in the Saturn environment such as Saturn's rings, the planet itself, and Saturn's satellites near the Cassini spacecraft may interfere with the star tracker's ability to find stars. These interferences can create faulty spacecraft attitude knowledge, which would decrease the pointing accuracy or even trip a fault protection response on board the spacecraft. The effects of the extended bright body interference were observed in December of 2000 when Cassini flew by Jupiter. Based on this flight experience and expected star tracker behavior at Saturn, the Cassini AACS operations team defined flight rules to suspend the star tracker during predicted interference windows. The flight rules are also implemented in the existing ground software called Kinematic Predictor Tool to create star identification suspend commands to be uplinked to the spacecraft for future predicted interferences. This paper discusses the details of how extended bright bodies impact Cassini's acquisition of attitude knowledge, how the observed data helped the ground engineers in developing flight rules, and how automated methods are used in the flight and ground software to ensure the spacecraft is continuously operated within these flight rules. This paper also discusses how these established procedures will continue to be used to overcome new bright body challenges that Cassini will encounter during its dips inside the rings of Saturn for its final orbits of a remarkable 20-year mission at Saturn.

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-07-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge.

Simple spatial scaling rules behind complex cities.

PubMed

Li, Ruiqi; Dong, Lei; Zhang, Jiang; Wang, Xinran; Wang, Wen-Xu; Di, Zengru; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-11-28

Although most of wealth and innovation have been the result of human interaction and cooperation, we are not yet able to quantitatively predict the spatial distributions of three main elements of cities: population, roads, and socioeconomic interactions. By a simple model mainly based on spatial attraction and matching growth mechanisms, we reveal that the spatial scaling rules of these three elements are in a consistent framework, which allows us to use any single observation to infer the others. All numerical and theoretical results are consistent with empirical data from ten representative cities. In addition, our model can also provide a general explanation of the origins of the universal super- and sub-linear aggregate scaling laws and accurately predict kilometre-level socioeconomic activity. Our work opens a new avenue for uncovering the evolution of cities in terms of the interplay among urban elements, and it has a broad range of applications.

Is it possible to claim or refute sputum eosinophils ≥ 3% in asthmatics with sufficient accuracy using biomarkers?

PubMed

Demarche, Sophie F; Schleich, Florence N; Paulus, Virginie A; Henket, Monique A; Van Hees, Thierry J; Louis, Renaud E

2017-07-03

The concept of asthma inflammatory phenotypes has proved to be important in predicting response to inhaled corticosteroids. Induced sputum, which has been pivotal in the development of the concept of inflammatory phenotypes, is however not widely available. Several studies have proposed to use surrogate exhaled or blood biomarkers, like fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO), blood eosinophils and total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE). However, taken alone, each of these biomarkers has moderate accuracy to identify sputum eosinophilia. Here, we propose a new approach based on the likelihood ratio to study which thresholds of these biomarkers, taken alone or in combination, were able to rule in or rule out sputum eosinophils ≥3%. We showed in a large population of 869 asthmatics that combining FENO, blood eosinophils and total serum IgE could accurately predict sputum eosinophils ≥ or <3% in 58% of our population.

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

PubMed Central

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-01-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge. PMID:26218613

47 CFR 76.55 - Definitions applicable to the must-carry rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... television station with five watts or higher power serving the franchise area, (ii) A full-service station or... the purposes of § 76.55(a), “serving the franchise area” will be based on the predicted protected... all obligations and requirements applicable to full power television broadcast stations under part 73...

76 FR 61566 - Significant New Use Rules on Certain Chemical Substances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-05

... foam control agents. Based on EcoSAR analysis of test data on analogous epoxides, EPA predicts toxicity... control; and an unscheduled DNA synthesis in mammalian cells in culture (OPPTS Test Guideline 870.5550) in...) under section 5(a)(2) of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) for 36 chemical substances which were...

Development and validation of a measure of display rule knowledge: the display rule assessment inventory.

PubMed

Matsumoto, David; Yoo, Seung Hee; Hirayama, Satoko; Petrova, Galina

2005-03-01

As one component of emotion regulation, display rules, which reflect the regulation of expressive behavior, have been the topic of many studies. Despite their theoretical and empirical importance, however, to date there is no measure of display rules that assesses a full range of behavioral responses that are theoretically possible when emotion is elicited. This article reports the development of a new measure of display rules that surveys 5 expressive modes: expression, deamplification, amplification, qualification, and masking. Two studies provide evidence for its internal and temporal reliability and for its content, convergent, discriminant, external, and concurrent predictive validity. Additionally, Study 1, involving American, Russian, and Japanese participants, demonstrated predictable cultural differences on each of the expressive modes. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

A clinical score to obviate the need for cardiac stress testing in patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins.

PubMed

Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Peteiro, Jesús; Broullón, Francisco J; Álvarez-García, Nemesio; Maneiro-Melón, Nicolás; Pardo-Martinez, Patricia; Sagastagoitia-Fornie, Marta; Martínez, Dolores; Yáñez, Juan C; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel

2016-08-01

Although cardiac stress testing may help establish the safety of early discharge in patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes and negative troponins, more cost-effective strategies are necessary. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction rule to safely obviate the need for cardiac stress testing in this setting. A decision rule was derived in a prospective cohort of 3001 patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins, and validated in a set of 1473 subjects. The primary end point was a composite of positive cardiac stress testing (in the absence of a subsequent negative coronary angiogram), positive coronary angiography, or any major coronary events within 3 months. A score chart was built based on 7 variables: male sex (+2), age (+1 per decade from the fifth decade), diabetes mellitus (+2), hypercholesterolemia (+1), prior coronary revascularization (+2), type of chest pain (typical angina, +5; non-specific chest pain, -3), and non-diagnostic repolarization abnormalities (+2). In the validation set, the model showed good discrimination (c statistic = 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.87) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, P= .34). If stress tests were avoided in patients in the validation sample with a sum score of 0 or lower, the number of referrals would be reduced by 23.4%, yielding a negative predictive value of 98.8% (95% confidence interval, 97.0%-99.7%). This novel prediction rule based on a combination of readily available clinical characteristics may be a valuable tool to decide whether stress testing can be reliably avoided in patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal operating rules definition in complex water resource systems combining fuzzy logic, expert criteria and stochastic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

This contribution presents a methodology for defining optimal seasonal operating rules in multireservoir systems coupling expert criteria and stochastic optimization. Both sources of information are combined using fuzzy logic. The structure of the operating rules is defined based on expert criteria, via a joint expert-technician framework consisting in a series of meetings, workshops and surveys carried out between reservoir managers and modelers. As a result, the decision-making process used by managers can be assessed and expressed using fuzzy logic: fuzzy rule-based systems are employed to represent the operating rules and fuzzy regression procedures are used for forecasting future inflows. Once done that, a stochastic optimization algorithm can be used to define optimal decisions and transform them into fuzzy rules. Finally, the optimal fuzzy rules and the inflow prediction scheme are combined into a Decision Support System for making seasonal forecasts and simulate the effect of different alternatives in response to the initial system state and the foreseen inflows. The approach presented has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Reservoir managers explained how the system is operated, taking into account the reservoirs' states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the inflows previewed during that season. According to the information given by them, the Jucar River Basin operating policies were expressed via two fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems that estimate the amount of water to be allocated to the users and how the reservoir storages should be balanced to guarantee those deliveries. A stochastic optimization model using Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) was developed to define optimal decisions, which are transformed into optimal operating rules embedding them into the two FRBs previously created. As a benchmark, historical records are used to develop alternative operating rules. A fuzzy linear regression procedure was employed to foresee future inflows depending on present and past hydrological and meteorological variables actually used by the reservoir managers to define likely inflow scenarios. A Decision Support System (DSS) was created coupling the FRB systems and the inflow prediction scheme in order to give the user a set of possible optimal releases in response to the reservoir states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the fuzzy inflow projections made using hydrological and meteorological information. The results show that the optimal DSS created using the FRB operating policies are able to increase the amount of water allocated to the users in 20 to 50 Mm3 per irrigation season with respect to the current policies. Consequently, the mechanism used to define optimal operating rules and transform them into a DSS is able to increase the water deliveries in the Jucar River Basin, combining expert criteria and optimization algorithms in an efficient way. This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds. It also has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811).

Severity of influenza A 2009 (H1N1) pneumonia is underestimated by routine prediction rules. Results from a prospective, population-based study.

PubMed

Bjarnason, Agnar; Thorleifsdottir, Gudlaug; Löve, Arthur; Gudnason, Janus F; Asgeirsson, Hilmir; Hallgrimsson, Kristinn L; Kristjansdottir, Berglind S; Haraldsson, Gunnsteinn; Baldursson, Olafur; Kristinsson, Karl G; Gottfredsson, Magnus

2012-01-01

Characteristics of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) due to pandemic influenza A 2009 (H1N1) have been inadequately compared to CAP caused by other respiratory pathogens. The performance of prediction rules for CAP during an epidemic with a new infectious agent are unknown. Prospective, population-based study from November 2008-November 2009, in centers representing 70% of hospital beds in Iceland. Patients admitted with CAP underwent evaluation and etiologic testing, including polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza. Data on influenza-like illness in the community and overall hospital admissions were collected. Clinical and laboratory data, including pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 of patients with CAP due to H1N1 were compared to those caused by other agents. Of 338 consecutive and eligible patients 313 (93%) were enrolled. During the pandemic peak, influenza A 2009 (H1N1) patients constituted 38% of admissions due to CAP. These patients were younger, more dyspnoeic and more frequently reported hemoptysis. They had significantly lower severity scores than other patients with CAP (1.23 vs. 1.61, P= .02 for CURB-65, 2.05 vs. 2.87 for PSI, P<.001) and were more likely to require intensive care admission (41% vs. 5%, P<.001) and receive mechanical ventilation (14% vs. 2%, P= .01). Bacterial co-infection was detected in 23% of influenza A 2009 (H1N1) patients with CAP. Clinical characteristics of CAP caused by influenza A 2009 (H1N1) differ markedly from CAP caused by other etiologic agents. Commonly used CAP prediction rules often failed to predict admissions to intensive care or need for assisted ventilation in CAP caused by the influenza A 2009 (H1N1) virus, underscoring the importance of clinical acumen under these circumstances.

Severity of Influenza A 2009 (H1N1) Pneumonia Is Underestimated by Routine Prediction Rules. Results from a Prospective, Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Bjarnason, Agnar; Thorleifsdottir, Gudlaug; Löve, Arthur; Gudnason, Janus F.; Asgeirsson, Hilmir; Hallgrimsson, Kristinn L.; Kristjansdottir, Berglind S.; Haraldsson, Gunnsteinn; Baldursson, Olafur; Kristinsson, Karl G.; Gottfredsson, Magnus

2012-01-01

Background Characteristics of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) due to pandemic influenza A 2009 (H1N1) have been inadequately compared to CAP caused by other respiratory pathogens. The performance of prediction rules for CAP during an epidemic with a new infectious agent are unknown. Methods Prospective, population-based study from November 2008–November 2009, in centers representing 70% of hospital beds in Iceland. Patients admitted with CAP underwent evaluation and etiologic testing, including polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza. Data on influenza-like illness in the community and overall hospital admissions were collected. Clinical and laboratory data, including pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 of patients with CAP due to H1N1 were compared to those caused by other agents. Results Of 338 consecutive and eligible patients 313 (93%) were enrolled. During the pandemic peak, influenza A 2009 (H1N1) patients constituted 38% of admissions due to CAP. These patients were younger, more dyspnoeic and more frequently reported hemoptysis. They had significantly lower severity scores than other patients with CAP (1.23 vs. 1.61, P = .02 for CURB-65, 2.05 vs. 2.87 for PSI, P<.001) and were more likely to require intensive care admission (41% vs. 5%, P<.001) and receive mechanical ventilation (14% vs. 2%, P = .01). Bacterial co-infection was detected in 23% of influenza A 2009 (H1N1) patients with CAP. Conclusions Clinical characteristics of CAP caused by influenza A 2009 (H1N1) differ markedly from CAP caused by other etiologic agents. Commonly used CAP prediction rules often failed to predict admissions to intensive care or need for assisted ventilation in CAP caused by the influenza A 2009 (H1N1) virus, underscoring the importance of clinical acumen under these circumstances. PMID:23071646

Incorporating Virtual Reactions into a Logic-based Ligand-based Virtual Screening Method to Discover New Leads

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Christopher R; Muggleton, Stephen H; Sternberg, Michael J E

2015-01-01

The use of virtual screening has become increasingly central to the drug development pipeline, with ligand-based virtual screening used to screen databases of compounds to predict their bioactivity against a target. These databases can only represent a small fraction of chemical space, and this paper describes a method of exploring synthetic space by applying virtual reactions to promising compounds within a database, and generating focussed libraries of predicted derivatives. A ligand-based virtual screening tool Investigational Novel Drug Discovery by Example (INDDEx) is used as the basis for a system of virtual reactions. The use of virtual reactions is estimated to open up a potential space of 1.21×1012 potential molecules. A de novo design algorithm known as Partial Logical-Rule Reactant Selection (PLoRRS) is introduced and incorporated into the INDDEx methodology. PLoRRS uses logical rules from the INDDEx model to select reactants for the de novo generation of potentially active products. The PLoRRS method is found to increase significantly the likelihood of retrieving molecules similar to known actives with a p-value of 0.016. Case studies demonstrate that the virtual reactions produce molecules highly similar to known actives, including known blockbuster drugs. PMID:26583052

Evaluation of Potential Continuation Rules for Mepolizumab Treatment of Severe Eosinophilic Asthma.

PubMed

Gunsoy, Necdet B; Cockle, Sarah M; Yancey, Steven W; Keene, Oliver N; Bradford, Eric S; Albers, Frank C; Pavord, Ian D

Mepolizumab significantly reduces exacerbations in patients with severe eosinophilic asthma. The early identification of patients likely to receive long-term benefit from treatment could ensure effective resource allocation. To assess potential continuation rules for mepolizumab in addition to initiation criteria defined as 2 or more exacerbations in the previous year and blood eosinophil counts of 150 cells/μL or more at initiation or 300 cells/μL or more in the previous year. This post hoc analysis included data from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies (NCT01000506 and NCT01691521) of mepolizumab in patients with severe eosinophilic asthma (N = 1,192). Rules based on blood eosinophils, physician-rated response to treatment, FEV 1 , Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ-5) score, and exacerbation reduction were assessed at week 16. To assess these rules, 2 key metrics accounting for the effects observed in the placebo arm were developed. Patients not meeting continuation rules based on physician-rated response, FEV 1 , and the ACQ-5 score still derived long-term benefit from mepolizumab. Nearly all patients failing to reduce blood eosinophils had counts of 150 cells/μL or less at baseline. For exacerbations, assessment after 16 weeks was potentially premature for predicting future exacerbations. There was no evidence of a reliable physician-rated response, ACQ-5 score, or lung function-based continuation rule. The added value of changes in blood eosinophils at week 16 over baseline was marginal. Initiation criteria for mepolizumab treatment provide the best method for assessing patient benefit from mepolizumab treatment, and treatment continuation should be reviewed on the basis of a predefined reduction in long-term exacerbation frequency and/or oral corticosteroid dose. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value of Seasonal Fuzzy-based Inflow Prediction in the Jucar River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2016-12-01

The development and application of climate services in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is said to add important benefits in terms of water use efficiency due to an increase ability to foresee future water availability. A method to evaluate the economic impact of these services is presented, based on the use of hydroeconomic modelling techniques (hydroeconomic simulation) to compare the net benefits from water use in the system with and without the inflow forecasting. The Jucar River Basin (Spain) has been used as case study. Operating rules currently applied in the basin were assessed using fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems via a co-development process involving the system operators. These operating rules use as input variable the hydrological inflows in several sub-basins, which need to be foreseen by the system operators. The inflow forecasting mechanism to preview water availability in the irrigation season (May-September) relied on fuzzy regression in which future inflows were foreseen based on past inflows and rainfall in the basin. This approach was compared with the current use of the two past year inflows for projecting the future inflow. For each irrigation season, the previewed inflows were determined using both methods and their impact on the system operation assessed through a hydroeconomic DSS. Results show that the implementation of the fuzzy inflow forecasting system offers higher economic returns. Another advantage of the fuzzy approach regards to the uncertainty treatment using fuzzy numbers, which allow us to estimate the uncertainty range of the expected benefits. Consequently, we can use the fuzzy approach to estimate the uncertainty associated with both the prediction and the associated benefits.

Predictors of Very Low Adherence with Medications for Osteoporosis: Towards Development of a Clinical Prediction Rule

PubMed Central

Solomon, Daniel H.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Tsao, Peter; Sundaresan, Devi; Andrade, Susan E.; Mazor, Kathleen; Yood, Robert

2016-01-01

Background Medication non-adherence is extremely common for osteoporosis, however no clear methods exist for identifying patients at-risk of this behavior. We developed a clinical prediction rule to predict medication non-adherence for women prescribed osteoporosis treatment. Methods Women undergoing bone mineral density testing and fulfilling WHO criteria for osteoporosis were invited to complete a questionnaire and then followed for one year. Adjusted logistic regression models were examined to identify variables associated with very low adherence (medication possession ratio < 20%). The weighted variables, based on the logistic regression, were summed and the score compared with the proportion of subjects with very low adherence. Results 142 women participated in the questionnaire and were prescribed an osteoporosis medication. After one year, 36% (n = 50) had very low adherence. Variables associated with very low adherence included: prior non-adherence with chronic medications, agreement that side effects are concerning, agreement that she is taking too many medications, lack of agreement that osteoporosis is a worry, lack of agreement that a fracture will cause disability, lack of agreement that medications help her stay active, and frequent use of alcohol. When combined into a summative score, 36 of the 58 subjects (62%) with 7 or more points on the score demonstrated very low adherence. This compares with 14 of the 84 (17%) subjects with fewer than 7 points (c-statistic = 0.74). Conclusions We developed a brief clinical prediction rule that was able to discriminate between women likely (and unlikely) to experience very low adherence with osteoporosis medications. PMID:20878392

Predicting higher selection in elite junior Australian Rules football: The influence of physical performance and anthropometric attributes.

PubMed

Robertson, Sam; Woods, Carl; Gastin, Paul

2015-09-01

To develop a physiological performance and anthropometric attribute model to predict Australian Football League draft selection. Cross-sectional observational. Data was obtained (n=4902) from three Under-18 Australian football competitions between 2010 and 2013. Players were allocated into one of the three groups, based on their highest level of selection in their final year of junior football (Australian Football League Drafted, n=292; National Championship, n=293; State-level club, n=4317). Physiological performance (vertical jumps, agility, speed and running endurance) and anthropometric (body mass and height) data were obtained. Hedge's effect sizes were calculated to assess the influence of selection-level and competition on these physical attributes, with logistic regression models constructed to discriminate Australian Football League Drafted and National Championship players. Rule induction analysis was undertaken to determine a set of rules for discriminating selection-level. Effect size comparisons revealed a range of small to moderate differences between State-level club players and both other groups for all attributes, with trivial to small differences between Australian Football League Drafted and National Championship players noted. Logistic regression models showed multistage fitness test, height and 20 m sprint time as the most important attributes in predicting Draft success. Rule induction analysis showed that players displaying multistage fitness test scores of >14.01 and/or 20 m sprint times of <2.99 s were most likely to be recruited. High levels of performance in aerobic and/or speed tests increase the likelihood of elite junior Australian football players being recruited to the highest level of the sport. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid incompatibilities in the parasitic wasp genus Nasonia: negative effects of hemizygosity and the identification of transmission ratio distortion loci.

PubMed

Koevoets, T; Niehuis, O; van de Zande, L; Beukeboom, L W

2012-03-01

The occurrence of hybrid incompatibilities forms an important stage during the evolution of reproductive isolation. In early stages of speciation, males and females often respond differently to hybridization. Haldane's rule states that the heterogametic sex suffers more from hybridization than the homogametic sex. Although haplodiploid reproduction (haploid males, diploid females) does not involve sex chromosomes, sex-specific incompatibilities are predicted to be prevalent in haplodiploid species. Here, we evaluate the effect of sex/ploidy level on hybrid incompatibilities and locate genomic regions that cause increased mortality rates in hybrid males of the haplodiploid wasps Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia longicornis. Our data show that diploid F(1) hybrid females suffer less from hybridization than haploid F(2) hybrid males. The latter not only suffer from an increased mortality rate, but also from behavioural and spermatogenic sterility. Genetic mapping in recombinant F(2) male hybrids revealed that the observed hybrid mortality is most likely due to a disruption of cytonuclear interactions. As these sex-specific hybrid incompatibilities follow predictions based on Haldane's rule, our data accentuate the need to broaden the view of Haldane's rule to include species with haplodiploid sex determination, consistent with Haldane's original definition.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

PubMed

Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

2016-08-01

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider geographical areas, especially the under-developed countries across Asia and Africa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative study on the forming limit diagram prediction between Marciniak-Kuczynski model and modified maximum force criterion by using the evolving non-associated Hill48 plasticity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Fuhui; Lian, Junhe; Münstermann, Sebastian

2018-05-01

Experimental and numerical investigations on the forming limit diagram (FLD) of a ferritic stainless steel were performed in this study. The FLD of this material was obtained by Nakajima tests. Both the Marciniak-Kuczynski (MK) model and the modified maximum force criterion (MMFC) were used for the theoretical prediction of the FLD. From the results of uniaxial tensile tests along different loading directions with respect to the rolling direction, strong anisotropic plastic behaviour was observed in the investigated steel. A recently proposed anisotropic evolving non-associated Hill48 (enHill48) plasticity model, which was developed from the conventional Hill48 model based on the non-associated flow rule with evolving anisotropic parameters, was adopted to describe the anisotropic hardening behaviour of the investigated material. In the previous study, the model was coupled with the MMFC for FLD prediction. In the current study, the enHill48 was further coupled with the MK model. By comparing the predicted forming limit curves with the experimental results, the influences of anisotropy in terms of flow rule and evolving features on the forming limit prediction were revealed and analysed. In addition, the forming limit predictive performances of the MK and the MMFC models in conjunction with the enHill48 plasticity model were compared and evaluated.

miRTar2GO: a novel rule-based model learning method for cell line specific microRNA target prediction that integrates Ago2 CLIP-Seq and validated microRNA-target interaction data.

PubMed

Ahadi, Alireza; Sablok, Gaurav; Hutvagner, Gyorgy

2017-04-07

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are ∼19-22 nucleotides (nt) long regulatory RNAs that regulate gene expression by recognizing and binding to complementary sequences on mRNAs. The key step in revealing the function of a miRNA, is the identification of miRNA target genes. Recent biochemical advances including PAR-CLIP and HITS-CLIP allow for improved miRNA target predictions and are widely used to validate miRNA targets. Here, we present miRTar2GO, which is a model, trained on the common rules of miRNA-target interactions, Argonaute (Ago) CLIP-Seq data and experimentally validated miRNA target interactions. miRTar2GO is designed to predict miRNA target sites using more relaxed miRNA-target binding characteristics. More importantly, miRTar2GO allows for the prediction of cell-type specific miRNA targets. We have evaluated miRTar2GO against other widely used miRNA target prediction algorithms and demonstrated that miRTar2GO produced significantly higher F1 and G scores. Target predictions, binding specifications, results of the pathway analysis and gene ontology enrichment of miRNA targets are freely available at http://www.mirtar2go.org. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Use of clinical prediction rules and D-dimer tests in the diagnostic management of pregnant patients with suspected acute pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Van der Pol, L M; Mairuhu, A T A; Tromeur, C; Couturaud, F; Huisman, M V; Klok, F A

2017-03-01

Because pregnant women have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and at the same time normal pregnancy is associated with symptoms, mimicking those present in the setting of acute pulmonary embolism (PE), the latter diagnosis is frequently suspected in this patient category. Since imaging tests expose both mother and foetus to ionizing radiation, the ability to rule out PE based on non-radiological diagnostic tests is of paramount importance. However, clinical decision rules have only been scarcely evaluated in the pregnant population with suspected PE, while D-dimer levels lose diagnostic accuracy due to a physiological increase during normal pregnancy. Consequently, clinical guidelines provide contradicting and weak recommendations on this subject and the optimal diagnostic strategy remains highly debated. With this systematic review, we aimed to summarize current evidence on the safety and efficacy of clinical decision rules and biomarkers used in the diagnostic management of suspected acute PE in pregnant patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimentally testing and assessing the predictive power of species assembly rules for tropical canopy ants

PubMed Central

Fayle, Tom M; Eggleton, Paul; Manica, Andrea; Yusah, Kalsum M; Foster, William A

2015-01-01

Understanding how species assemble into communities is a key goal in ecology. However, assembly rules are rarely tested experimentally, and their ability to shape real communities is poorly known. We surveyed a diverse community of epiphyte-dwelling ants and found that similar-sized species co-occurred less often than expected. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that invasion was discouraged by the presence of similarly sized resident species. The size difference for which invasion was less likely was the same as that for which wild species exhibited reduced co-occurrence. Finally we explored whether our experimentally derived assembly rules could simulate realistic communities. Communities simulated using size-based species assembly exhibited diversities closer to wild communities than those simulated using size-independent assembly, with results being sensitive to the combination of rules employed. Hence, species segregation in the wild can be driven by competitive species assembly, and this process is sufficient to generate observed species abundance distributions for tropical epiphyte-dwelling ants. PMID:25622647

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input–output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input–output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down. PMID:20596382

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube.

PubMed

Ahadian, Samad; Kawazoe, Yoshiyuki

2009-06-04

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input-output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input-output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down.

Attentional effects on rule extraction and consolidation from speech.

PubMed

López-Barroso, Diana; Cucurell, David; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni; de Diego-Balaguer, Ruth

2016-07-01

Incidental learning plays a crucial role in the initial phases of language acquisition. However the knowledge derived from implicit learning, which is based on prediction-based mechanisms, may become explicit. The role that attention plays in the formation of implicit and explicit knowledge of the learned material is unclear. In the present study, we investigated the role that attention plays in the acquisition of non-adjacent rule learning from speech. In addition, we also tested whether the amount of attention during learning changes the representation of the learned material after a 24h delay containing sleep. For that, we developed an experiment run on two consecutive days consisting on the exposure to an artificial language that contained non-adjacent dependencies (rules) between words whereas different conditions were established to manipulate the amount of attention given to the rules (target and non-target conditions). Furthermore, we used both indirect and direct measures of learning that are more sensitive to implicit and explicit knowledge, respectively. Whereas the indirect measures indicated that learning of the rules occurred regardless of attention, more explicit judgments after learning showed differences in the type of learning reached under the two attention conditions. 24 hours later, indirect measures showed no further improvements during additional language exposure and explicit judgments indicated that only the information more robustly learned in the previous day, was consolidated. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attentional effects on rule extraction and consolidation from speech

PubMed Central

López-Barroso, Diana; Cucurell, David; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni; de Diego-Balaguer, Ruth

2016-01-01

Incidental learning plays a crucial role in the initial phases of language acquisition. However the knowledge derived from implicit learning, which is based on prediction-based mechanisms, may become explicit. The role that attention plays in the formation of implicit and explicit knowledge of the learned material is unclear. In the present study, we investigated the role that attention plays in the acquisition of non-adjacent rule learning from speech. In addition, we also tested whether the amount of attention during learning changes the representation of the learned material after a 24 h delay containing sleep. For that, we developed an experiment run on two consecutive days consisting on the exposure to an artificial language that contained non-adjacent dependencies (rules) between words whereas different conditions were established to manipulate the amount of attention given to the rules (target and non-target conditions). Furthermore, we used both indirect and direct measures of learning that are more sensitive to implicit and explicit knowledge, respectively. Whereas the indirect measures indicated that learning of the rules occurred regardless of attention, more explicit judgments after learning showed differences in the type of learning reached under the two attention conditions. 24 hours later, indirect measures showed no further improvements during additional language exposure and explicit judgments indicated that only the information more robustly learned in the previous day, was consolidated. PMID:27031495

Effect of Evolutionary Anisotropy on Earing Prediction in Cylindrical Cup Drawing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H. J.; Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Bae, G.; Ahn, D.-C.; Lee, M.-G.

2017-05-01

The formability of sheet metals is associated with their planar anisotropy, and finite element simulations have been applied to the sheet metal-forming process by describing the anisotropic behaviors using yield functions and hardening models. In this study, the evaluation of anisotropic constitutive models was performed based on the non-uniform height profile or earing in circular cylindrical cup drawing. Two yield functions, a quadratic Hill1948 and a non-quadratic Yld2000-2d model, were used under non-associated and associated flow rules, respectively, to simultaneously capture directional differences in yield stress and r value. The effect of the evolution of anisotropy on the earing prediction was also investigated by employing simplified equivalent plastic strain rate-dependent anisotropic coefficients. The computational results were in good agreement with experiments when the proper choice of the yield function and flow rule, which predicts the planar anisotropy, was made. Moreover, the accuracy of the earing profile could be significantly enhanced if the evolution of anisotropy between uniaxial and biaxial stress states was additionally considered.

Constructing Compact Takagi-Sugeno Rule Systems: Identification of Complex Interactions in Epidemiological Data

PubMed Central

Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A.; Brophy, Sinead; Gravenor, Mike B.

2012-01-01

The Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy rule system is a widely used data mining technique, and is of particular use in the identification of non-linear interactions between variables. However the number of rules increases dramatically when applied to high dimensional data sets (the curse of dimensionality). Few robust methods are available to identify important rules while removing redundant ones, and this results in limited applicability in fields such as epidemiology or bioinformatics where the interaction of many variables must be considered. Here, we develop a new parsimonious TS rule system. We propose three statistics: R, L, and ω-values, to rank the importance of each TS rule, and a forward selection procedure to construct a final model. We use our method to predict how key components of childhood deprivation combine to influence educational achievement outcome. We show that a parsimonious TS model can be constructed, based on a small subset of rules, that provides an accurate description of the relationship between deprivation indices and educational outcomes. The selected rules shed light on the synergistic relationships between the variables, and reveal that the effect of targeting specific domains of deprivation is crucially dependent on the state of the other domains. Policy decisions need to incorporate these interactions, and deprivation indices should not be considered in isolation. The TS rule system provides a basis for such decision making, and has wide applicability for the identification of non-linear interactions in complex biomedical data. PMID:23272108

IOTA Simple Rules in Differentiating between Benign and Malignant Adnexal Masses by Non-expert Examiners.

PubMed

Tinnangwattana, Dangcheewan; Vichak-Ururote, Linlada; Tontivuthikul, Paponrad; Charoenratana, Cholaros; Lerthiranwong, Thitikarn; Tongsong, Theera

2015-01-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules in predicting malignant adnexal tumors by non-expert examiners. Five obstetric/gynecologic residents, who had never performed gynecologic ultrasound examination by themselves before, were trained for IOTA simple rules by an experienced examiner. One trained resident performed ultrasound examinations including IOTA simple rules on 100 women, who were scheduled for surgery due to ovarian masses, within 24 hours of surgery. The gold standard diagnosis was based on pathological or operative findings. The five-trained residents performed IOTA simple rules on 30 patients for evaluation of inter-observer variability. A total of 100 patients underwent ultrasound examination for the IOTA simple rules. Of them, IOTA simple rules could be applied in 94 (94%) masses including 71 (71.0%) benign masses and 29 (29.0%) malignant masses. The diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules showed sensitivity of 89.3% (95%CI, 77.8%; 100.7%), specificity 83.3% (95%CI, 74.3%; 92.3%). Inter-observer variability was analyzed using Cohen's kappa coefficient. Kappa indices of the four pairs of raters are 0.713-0.884 (0.722, 0.827, 0.713, and 0.884). IOTA simple rules have high diagnostic performance in discriminating adnexal masses even when are applied by non-expert sonographers, though a training course may be required. Nevertheless, they should be further tested by a greater number of general practitioners before widely use.

Constructing compact Takagi-Sugeno rule systems: identification of complex interactions in epidemiological data.

PubMed

Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A; Brophy, Sinead; Gravenor, Mike B

2012-01-01

The Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy rule system is a widely used data mining technique, and is of particular use in the identification of non-linear interactions between variables. However the number of rules increases dramatically when applied to high dimensional data sets (the curse of dimensionality). Few robust methods are available to identify important rules while removing redundant ones, and this results in limited applicability in fields such as epidemiology or bioinformatics where the interaction of many variables must be considered. Here, we develop a new parsimonious TS rule system. We propose three statistics: R, L, and ω-values, to rank the importance of each TS rule, and a forward selection procedure to construct a final model. We use our method to predict how key components of childhood deprivation combine to influence educational achievement outcome. We show that a parsimonious TS model can be constructed, based on a small subset of rules, that provides an accurate description of the relationship between deprivation indices and educational outcomes. The selected rules shed light on the synergistic relationships between the variables, and reveal that the effect of targeting specific domains of deprivation is crucially dependent on the state of the other domains. Policy decisions need to incorporate these interactions, and deprivation indices should not be considered in isolation. The TS rule system provides a basis for such decision making, and has wide applicability for the identification of non-linear interactions in complex biomedical data.

Machine learning models in breast cancer survival prediction.

PubMed

Montazeri, Mitra; Montazeri, Mohadeseh; Montazeri, Mahdieh; Beigzadeh, Amin

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers with a high mortality rate among women. With the early diagnosis of breast cancer survival will increase from 56% to more than 86%. Therefore, an accurate and reliable system is necessary for the early diagnosis of this cancer. The proposed model is the combination of rules and different machine learning techniques. Machine learning models can help physicians to reduce the number of false decisions. They try to exploit patterns and relationships among a large number of cases and predict the outcome of a disease using historical cases stored in datasets. The objective of this study is to propose a rule-based classification method with machine learning techniques for the prediction of different types of Breast cancer survival. We use a dataset with eight attributes that include the records of 900 patients in which 876 patients (97.3%) and 24 (2.7%) patients were females and males respectively. Naive Bayes (NB), Trees Random Forest (TRF), 1-Nearest Neighbor (1NN), AdaBoost (AD), Support Vector Machine (SVM), RBF Network (RBFN), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning techniques with 10-cross fold technique were used with the proposed model for the prediction of breast cancer survival. The performance of machine learning techniques were evaluated with accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve. Out of 900 patients, 803 patients and 97 patients were alive and dead, respectively. In this study, Trees Random Forest (TRF) technique showed better results in comparison to other techniques (NB, 1NN, AD, SVM and RBFN, MLP). The accuracy, sensitivity and the area under ROC curve of TRF are 96%, 96%, 93%, respectively. However, 1NN machine learning technique provided poor performance (accuracy 91%, sensitivity 91% and area under ROC curve 78%). This study demonstrates that Trees Random Forest model (TRF) which is a rule-based classification model was the best model with the highest level of accuracy. Therefore, this model is recommended as a useful tool for breast cancer survival prediction as well as medical decision making.

Diagnosing malignant melanoma in ambulatory care: a systematic review of clinical prediction rules

PubMed Central

Harrington, Emma; Clyne, Barbara; Wesseling, Nieneke; Sandhu, Harkiran; Armstrong, Laura; Bennett, Holly; Fahey, Tom

2017-01-01

Objectives Malignant melanoma has high morbidity and mortality rates. Early diagnosis improves prognosis. Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can be used to stratify patients with symptoms of suspected malignant melanoma to improve early diagnosis. We conducted a systematic review of CPRs for melanoma diagnosis in ambulatory care. Design Systematic review. Data sources A comprehensive search of PubMed, EMBASE, PROSPERO, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and SCOPUS was conducted in May 2015, using combinations of keywords and medical subject headings (MeSH) terms. Study selection and data extraction Studies deriving and validating, validating or assessing the impact of a CPR for predicting melanoma diagnosis in ambulatory care were included. Data extraction and methodological quality assessment were guided by the CHARMS checklist. Results From 16 334 studies reviewed, 51 were included, validating the performance of 24 unique CPRs. Three impact analysis studies were identified. Five studies were set in primary care. The most commonly evaluated CPRs were the ABCD, more than one or uneven distribution of Colour, or a large (greater than 6 mm) Diameter (ABCD) dermoscopy rule (at a cut-point of >4.75; 8 studies; pooled sensitivity 0.85, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93, specificity 0.72, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.78) and the 7-point dermoscopy checklist (at a cut-point of ≥1 recommending ruling in melanoma; 11 studies; pooled sensitivity 0.77, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88, specificity 0.80, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.92). The methodological quality of studies varied. Conclusions At their recommended cut-points, the ABCD dermoscopy rule is more useful for ruling out melanoma than the 7-point dermoscopy checklist. A focus on impact analysis will help translate melanoma risk prediction rules into useful tools for clinical practice. PMID:28264830

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

PubMed Central

Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most likely violated in many forests due to shared or distinct habitat preferences. Furthermore, our results highlight missing knowledge about the relationship between species abundances and their aggregation. PMID:27667967

Qualitative Discovery in Medical Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maluf, David A.

2000-01-01

Implication rules have been used in uncertainty reasoning systems to confirm and draw hypotheses or conclusions. However a major bottleneck in developing such systems lies in the elicitation of these rules. This paper empirically examines the performance of evidential inferencing with implication networks generated using a rule induction tool called KAT. KAT utilizes an algorithm for the statistical analysis of empirical case data, and hence reduces the knowledge engineering efforts and biases in subjective implication certainty assignment. The paper describes several experiments in which real-world diagnostic problems were investigated; namely, medical diagnostics. In particular, it attempts to show that: (1) with a limited number of case samples, KAT is capable of inducing implication networks useful for making evidential inferences based on partial observations, and (2) observation driven by a network entropy optimization mechanism is effective in reducing the uncertainty of predicted events.

Decision making under internal uncertainty: the case of multiple-choice tests with different scoring rules.

PubMed

Bereby-Meyer, Yoella; Meyer, Joachim; Budescu, David V

2003-02-01

This paper assesses framing effects on decision making with internal uncertainty, i.e., partial knowledge, by focusing on examinees' behavior in multiple-choice (MC) tests with different scoring rules. In two experiments participants answered a general-knowledge MC test that consisted of 34 solvable and 6 unsolvable items. Experiment 1 studied two scoring rules involving Positive (only gains) and Negative (only losses) scores. Although answering all items was the dominating strategy for both rules, the results revealed a greater tendency to answer under the Negative scoring rule. These results are in line with the predictions derived from Prospect Theory (PT) [Econometrica 47 (1979) 263]. The second experiment studied two scoring rules, which allowed respondents to exhibit partial knowledge. Under the Inclusion-scoring rule the respondents mark all answers that could be correct, and under the Exclusion-scoring rule they exclude all answers that might be incorrect. As predicted by PT, respondents took more risks under the Inclusion rule than under the Exclusion rule. The results illustrate that the basic process that underlies choice behavior under internal uncertainty and especially the effect of framing is similar to the process of choice under external uncertainty and can be described quite accurately by PT. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Derivation and Validation of a Clostridium difficile Infection Recurrence Prediction Rule in a National Cohort of Veterans.

PubMed

Reveles, Kelly R; Mortensen, Eric M; Koeller, Jim M; Lawson, Kenneth A; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Rumbellow, Sarah A; Argamany, Jacqueline R; Frei, Christopher R

2018-03-01

Prior studies have identified risk factors for recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), but few studies have integrated these factors into a clinical prediction rule that can aid clinical decision-making. The objectives of this study were to derive and validate a CDI recurrence prediction rule to identify patients at risk for first recurrence in a national cohort of veterans. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure. A total of 22,615 adult Veterans Health Administration beneficiaries with first-episode CDI between October 1, 2002, and September 30, 2014; of these patients, 7538 were assigned to the derivation cohort and 15,077 to the validation cohort. A 60-day CDI recurrence prediction rule was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p<0.01 were assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then validated in the derivation cohort and a separate validation cohort. Patients were then split into three risk categories, and rates of recurrence were described for each category. The CDI recurrence prediction rule included the following predictor variables with their respective point values: prior third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins (1 point), prior proton pump inhibitors (1 point), prior antidiarrheals (1 point), nonsevere CDI (2 points), and community-onset CDI (3 points). In the derivation cohort, the 60-day CDI recurrence risk for each score ranged from 7.5% (0 points) to 57.9% (8 points). The risk score was strongly correlated with recurrence (R 2  = 0.94). Patients were split into low-risk (0-2 points), medium-risk (3-5 points), and high-risk (6-8 points) classes and had the following recurrence rates: 8.9%, 20.2%, and 35.0%, respectively. Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several CDI and patient-specific factors were independently associated with 60-day CDI recurrence risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were strongly correlated with CDI recurrence. This clinical prediction rule can be used by providers to identify patients at high risk for CDI recurrence and help guide preventive strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment. © 2018 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

The Amsterdam wrist rules: the multicenter prospective derivation and external validation of a clinical decision rule for the use of radiography in acute wrist trauma.

PubMed

Walenkamp, Monique M J; Bentohami, Abdelali; Slaar, Annelie; Beerekamp, M Suzan H; Maas, Mario; Jager, L Cara; Sosef, Nico L; van Velde, Romuald; Ultee, Jan M; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Goslings, J Carel; Schep, Niels W L

2015-12-18

Although only 39 % of patients with wrist trauma have sustained a fracture, the majority of patients is routinely referred for radiography. The purpose of this study was to derive and externally validate a clinical decision rule that selects patients with acute wrist trauma in the Emergency Department (ED) for radiography. This multicenter prospective study consisted of three components: (1) derivation of a clinical prediction model for detecting wrist fractures in patients following wrist trauma; (2) external validation of this model; and (3) design of a clinical decision rule. The study was conducted in the EDs of five Dutch hospitals: one academic hospital (derivation cohort) and four regional hospitals (external validation cohort). We included all adult patients with acute wrist trauma. The main outcome was fracture of the wrist (distal radius, distal ulna or carpal bones) diagnosed on conventional X-rays. A total of 882 patients were analyzed; 487 in the derivation cohort and 395 in the validation cohort. We derived a clinical prediction model with eight variables: age; sex, swelling of the wrist; swelling of the anatomical snuffbox, visible deformation; distal radius tender to palpation; pain on radial deviation and painful axial compression of the thumb. The Area Under the Curve at external validation of this model was 0.81 (95 % CI: 0.77-0.85). The sensitivity and specificity of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules (AWR) in the external validation cohort were 98 % (95 % CI: 95-99 %) and 21 % (95 % CI: 15 %-28). The negative predictive value was 90 % (95 % CI: 81-99 %). The Amsterdam Wrist Rules is a clinical prediction rule with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value for fractures of the wrist. Although external validation showed low specificity and 100 % sensitivity could not be achieved, the Amsterdam Wrist Rules can provide physicians in the Emergency Department with a useful screening tool to select patients with acute wrist trauma for radiography. The upcoming implementation study will further reveal the impact of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules on the anticipated reduction of X-rays requested, missed fractures, Emergency Department waiting times and health care costs. This study was registered in the Dutch Trial Registry, reference number NTR2544 on October 1(st), 2010.

An optimal sample data usage strategy to minimize overfitting and underfitting effects in regression tree models based on remotely-sensed data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Picotte, Joshua J.; Howard, Danny; Smith, Kelcy; Nelson, Kurtis

2016-01-01

Regression tree models have been widely used for remote sensing-based ecosystem mapping. Improper use of the sample data (model training and testing data) may cause overfitting and underfitting effects in the model. The goal of this study is to develop an optimal sampling data usage strategy for any dataset and identify an appropriate number of rules in the regression tree model that will improve its accuracy and robustness. Landsat 8 data and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-scaled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to develop regression tree models. A Python procedure was designed to generate random replications of model parameter options across a range of model development data sizes and rule number constraints. The mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predicted and actual NDVI (scaled NDVI, value from 0–200) and its variability across the different randomized replications were calculated to assess the accuracy and stability of the models. In our case study, a six-rule regression tree model developed from 80% of the sample data had the lowest MAD (MADtraining = 2.5 and MADtesting = 2.4), which was suggested as the optimal model. This study demonstrates how the training data and rule number selections impact model accuracy and provides important guidance for future remote-sensing-based ecosystem modeling.

Limit of validity of Ostwald's rule of stages in a statistical mechanical model of crystallization.

PubMed

Hedges, Lester O; Whitelam, Stephen

2011-10-28

We have only rules of thumb with which to predict how a material will crystallize, chief among which is Ostwald's rule of stages. It states that the first phase to appear upon transformation of a parent phase is the one closest to it in free energy. Although sometimes upheld, the rule is without theoretical foundation and is not universally obeyed, highlighting the need for microscopic understanding of crystallization controls. Here we study in detail the crystallization pathways of a prototypical model of patchy particles. The range of crystallization pathways it exhibits is richer than can be predicted by Ostwald's rule, but a combination of simulation and analytic theory reveals clearly how these pathways are selected by microscopic parameters. Our results suggest strategies for controlling self-assembly pathways in simulation and experiment.

Blowout Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), a NASA-developed software shell for developing expert systems, has been embedded in a PC-based expert system for training oil rig personnel in monitoring oil drilling. Oil drilling rigs if not properly maintained for possible blowouts pose hazards to human life, property and the environment may be destroyed. CLIPS is designed to permit the delivery of artificial intelligence on computer. A collection of rules is set up and, as facts become known, these rules are applied. In the Well Site Advisor, CLIPS provides the capability to accurately process, predict and interpret well data in a real time mode. CLIPS was provided to INTEQ by COSMIC.

AVNM: A Voting based Novel Mathematical Rule for Image Classification.

PubMed

Vidyarthi, Ankit; Mittal, Namita

2016-12-01

In machine learning, the accuracy of the system depends upon classification result. Classification accuracy plays an imperative role in various domains. Non-parametric classifier like K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) is the most widely used classifier for pattern analysis. Besides its easiness, simplicity and effectiveness characteristics, the main problem associated with KNN classifier is the selection of a number of nearest neighbors i.e. "k" for computation. At present, it is hard to find the optimal value of "k" using any statistical algorithm, which gives perfect accuracy in terms of low misclassification error rate. Motivated by the prescribed problem, a new sample space reduction weighted voting mathematical rule (AVNM) is proposed for classification in machine learning. The proposed AVNM rule is also non-parametric in nature like KNN. AVNM uses the weighted voting mechanism with sample space reduction to learn and examine the predicted class label for unidentified sample. AVNM is free from any initial selection of predefined variable and neighbor selection as found in KNN algorithm. The proposed classifier also reduces the effect of outliers. To verify the performance of the proposed AVNM classifier, experiments are made on 10 standard datasets taken from UCI database and one manually created dataset. The experimental result shows that the proposed AVNM rule outperforms the KNN classifier and its variants. Experimentation results based on confusion matrix accuracy parameter proves higher accuracy value with AVNM rule. The proposed AVNM rule is based on sample space reduction mechanism for identification of an optimal number of nearest neighbor selections. AVNM results in better classification accuracy and minimum error rate as compared with the state-of-art algorithm, KNN, and its variants. The proposed rule automates the selection of nearest neighbor selection and improves classification rate for UCI dataset and manually created dataset. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spread prediction model of continuous steel tube based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jian-wei; Yu, Hui; Zou, Hai-bei; Wang, San-zhong; Liu, Li-gang

2017-07-01

According to the geometric pass of roll and technological parameters of three-roller continuous mandrel rolling mill in a factory, a finite element model is established to simulate the continuous rolling process of seamless steel tube, and the reliability of finite element model is verified by comparing with the simulation results and actual results of rolling force, wall thickness and outer diameter of the tube. The effect of roller reduction, roller rotation speed and blooming temperature on the spread rule is studied. Based on BP(Back Propagation) neural network technology, a spread prediction model of continuous rolling tube is established for training wall thickness coefficient and spread coefficient of the continuous rolling tube, and the rapid and accurate prediction of continuous rolling tube size is realized.

Automated Assessment of Existing Patient's Revised Cardiac Risk Index Using Algorithmic Software.

PubMed

Hofer, Ira S; Cheng, Drew; Grogan, Tristan; Fujimoto, Yohei; Yamada, Takashige; Beck, Lauren; Cannesson, Maxime; Mahajan, Aman

2018-05-25

Previous work in the field of medical informatics has shown that rules-based algorithms can be created to identify patients with various medical conditions; however, these techniques have not been compared to actual clinician notes nor has the ability to predict complications been tested. We hypothesize that a rules-based algorithm can successfully identify patients with the diseases in the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Patients undergoing surgery at the University of California, Los Angeles Health System between April 1, 2013 and July 1, 2016 and who had at least 2 previous office visits were included. For each disease in the RCRI except renal failure-congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus-diagnosis algorithms were created based on diagnostic and standard clinical treatment criteria. For each disease state, the prevalence of the disease as determined by the algorithm, International Classification of Disease (ICD) code, and anesthesiologist's preoperative note were determined. Additionally, 400 American Society of Anesthesiologists classes III and IV cases were randomly chosen for manual review by an anesthesiologist. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were determined using the manual review as a gold standard. Last, the ability of the RCRI as calculated by each of the methods to predict in-hospital mortality was determined, and the time necessary to run the algorithms was calculated. A total of 64,151 patients met inclusion criteria for the study. In general, the incidence of definite or likely disease determined by the algorithms was higher than that detected by the anesthesiologist. Additionally, in all disease states, the prevalence of disease was always lowest for the ICD codes, followed by the preoperative note, followed by the algorithms. In the subset of patients for whom the records were manually reviewed, the algorithms were generally the most sensitive and the ICD codes the most specific. When computing the modified RCRI using each of the methods, the modified RCRI from the algorithms predicted in-hospital mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70 (0.67-0.73), which compared to 0.70 (0.67-0.72) for ICD codes and 0.64 (0.61-0.67) for the preoperative note. On average, the algorithms took 12.64 ± 1.20 minutes to run on 1.4 million patients. Rules-based algorithms for disease in the RCRI can be created that perform with a similar discriminative ability as compared to physician notes and ICD codes but with significantly increased economies of scale.

Moral empiricism and the bias for act-based rules.

PubMed

Ayars, Alisabeth; Nichols, Shaun

2017-10-01

Previous studies on rule learning show a bias in favor of act-based rules, which prohibit intentionally producing an outcome but not merely allowing the outcome. Nichols, Kumar, Lopez, Ayars, and Chan (2016) found that exposure to a single sample violation in which an agent intentionally causes the outcome was sufficient for participants to infer that the rule was act-based. One explanation is that people have an innate bias to think rules are act-based. We suggest an alternative empiricist account: since most rules that people learn are act-based, people form an overhypothesis (Goodman, 1955) that rules are typically act-based. We report three studies that indicate that people can use information about violations to form overhypotheses about rules. In study 1, participants learned either three "consequence-based" rules that prohibited allowing an outcome or three "act-based" rules that prohibiting producing the outcome; in a subsequent learning task, we found that participants who had learned three consequence-based rules were more likely to think that the new rule prohibited allowing an outcome. In study 2, we presented participants with either 1 consequence-based rule or 3 consequence-based rules, and we found that those exposed to 3 such rules were more likely to think that a new rule was also consequence based. Thus, in both studies, it seems that learning 3 consequence-based rules generates an overhypothesis to expect new rules to be consequence-based. In a final study, we used a more subtle manipulation. We exposed participants to examples act-based or accident-based (strict liability) laws and then had them learn a novel rule. We found that participants who were exposed to the accident-based laws were more likely to think a new rule was accident-based. The fact that participants' bias for act-based rules can be shaped by evidence from other rules supports the idea that the bias for act-based rules might be acquired as an overhypothesis from the preponderance of act-based rules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A knowledge-based support system for mechanical ventilation of the lungs. The KUSIVAR concept and prototype.

PubMed

Rudowski, R; Frostell, C; Gill, H

1989-09-01

The KUSIVAR is an expert system for mechanical ventilation of adult patients suffering from respiratory insufficiency. Its main objective is to provide guidance in respirator management. The knowledge base includes both qualitative, rule-based knowledge and quantitative knowledge expressed in the form of mathematical models (expert control) which is used for prediction of arterial gas tensions and optimization purposes. The system is data driven and uses a forward chaining mechanism for rule invocation. The interaction with the user will be performed in advisory, critiquing, semi-automatic and automatic modes. The system is at present in an advanced prototype stage. Prototyping is performed using KEE (Knowledge Engineering Environment) on a Sperry Explorer workstation. For further development and clinical use the expert system will be downloaded to an advanced PC. The system is intended to support therapy with a Siemens-Elema Servoventilator 900 C.

Beyond Atomic Sizes and Hume-Rothery Rules: Understanding and Predicting High-Entropy Alloys

DOE PAGES

Troparevsky, M. Claudia; Morris, James R.; Daene, Markus; ...

2015-09-03

High-entropy alloys constitute a new class of materials that provide an excellent combination of strength, ductility, thermal stability, and oxidation resistance. Although they have attracted extensive attention due to their potential applications, little is known about why these compounds are stable or how to predict which combination of elements will form a single phase. Here, we present a review of the latest research done on these alloys focusing on the theoretical models devised during the last decade. We discuss semiempirical methods based on the Hume-Rothery rules and stability criteria based on enthalpies of mixing and size mismatch. To provide insightsmore » into the electronic and magnetic properties of high-entropy alloys, we show the results of first-principles calculations of the electronic structure of the disordered solid-solution phase based on both Korringa Kohn Rostoker coherent potential approximation and large supercell models of example face-centered cubic and body-centered cubic systems. Furthermore, we discuss in detail a model based on enthalpy considerations that can predict which elemental combinations are most likely to form a single-phase high-entropy alloy. The enthalpies are evaluated via first-principles high-throughput density functional theory calculations of the energies of formation of binary compounds, and therefore it requires no experimental or empirically derived input. Finally, the model correctly accounts for the specific combinations of metallic elements that are known to form single-phase alloys while rejecting similar combinations that have been tried and shown not to be single phase.« less

[Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: a case study of Jinjing Town, Hunan Province, China].

PubMed

Ji, Xiang; Liu, Li-Ming; Li, Hong-Qing

2014-11-01

Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm2 and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm2. The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.

When bad stress goes good: increased threat reactivity predicts improved category learning performance.

PubMed

Ell, Shawn W; Cosley, Brandon; McCoy, Shannon K

2011-02-01

The way in which we respond to everyday stressors can have a profound impact on cognitive functioning. Maladaptive stress responses in particular are generally associated with impaired cognitive performance. We argue, however, that the cognitive system mediating task performance is also a critical determinant of the stress-cognition relationship. Consistent with this prediction, we observed that stress reactivity consistent with a maladaptive, threat response differentially predicted performance on two categorization tasks. Increased threat reactivity predicted enhanced performance on an information-integration task (i.e., learning is thought to depend upon a procedural-based memory system), and a (nonsignificant) trend for impaired performance on a rule-based task (i.e., learning is thought to depend upon a hypothesis-testing system). These data suggest that it is critical to consider both variability in the stress response and variability in the cognitive system mediating task performance in order to fully understand the stress-cognition relationship.

Knowledge acquisition is governed by striatal prediction errors.

PubMed

Pine, Alex; Sadeh, Noa; Ben-Yakov, Aya; Dudai, Yadin; Mendelsohn, Avi

2018-04-26

Discrepancies between expectations and outcomes, or prediction errors, are central to trial-and-error learning based on reward and punishment, and their neurobiological basis is well characterized. It is not known, however, whether the same principles apply to declarative memory systems, such as those supporting semantic learning. Here, we demonstrate with fMRI that the brain parametrically encodes the degree to which new factual information violates expectations based on prior knowledge and beliefs-most prominently in the ventral striatum, and cortical regions supporting declarative memory encoding. These semantic prediction errors determine the extent to which information is incorporated into long-term memory, such that learning is superior when incoming information counters strong incorrect recollections, thereby eliciting large prediction errors. Paradoxically, by the same account, strong accurate recollections are more amenable to being supplanted by misinformation, engendering false memories. These findings highlight a commonality in brain mechanisms and computational rules that govern declarative and nondeclarative learning, traditionally deemed dissociable.

Evaluation of corrosion fatigue and life prediction of lower arm for automotive suspension component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yong-Sang; Kim, Jung-Gu

2017-01-01

Lower arm is one of the suspension components of automobile. It is suffered from driving vibration and corrosive environment, namely corrosion fatigue. In this study, corrosion fatigue property of lower arm was investigated, and a modified model based on Palmgren-Miner rule was developed to predict the lifetimes of corrosion fatigue. The corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was about 1/6 times shorter than fatigue life. Based on the results of corrosion fatigue tests and meteorological data in Seoul and Halifax, the corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was predicted. The satisfaction of 10-year and 300,000 km warranty was dominated by the climate of automobile driving. This prediction indicates that the weather condition or driving condition influences the life of automotive parts. Therefore, to determine the warranty of automotive parts, the driving condition has to be carefully considered.

EPE fundamentals and impact of EUV: Will traditional design-rule calculations work in the era of EUV?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabor, Allen H.; Brendler, Andrew C.; Brunner, Timothy A.; Chen, Xuemei; Culp, James A.; Levinson, Harry J.

2018-03-01

The relationship between edge placement error, semiconductor design-rule determination and predicted yield in the era of EUV lithography is examined. This paper starts with the basics of edge placement error and then builds up to design-rule calculations. We show that edge placement error (EPE) definitions can be used as the building blocks for design-rule equations but that in the last several years the term "EPE" has been used in the literature to refer to many patterning errors that are not EPE. We then explore the concept of "Good Fields"1 and use it predict the n-sigma value needed for design-rule determination. Specifically, fundamental yield calculations based on the failure opportunities per chip are used to determine at what n-sigma "value" design-rules need to be tested to ensure high yield. The "value" can be a space between two features, an intersect area between two features, a minimum area of a feature, etc. It is shown that across chip variation of design-rule important values needs to be tested at sigma values between seven and eight which is much higher than the four-sigma values traditionally used for design-rule determination. After recommending new statistics be used for design-rule calculations the paper examines the impact of EUV lithography on sources of variation important for design-rule calculations. We show that stochastics can be treated as an effective dose variation that is fully sampled across every chip. Combining the increased within chip variation from EUV with the understanding that across chip variation of design-rule important values needs to not cause a yield loss at significantly higher sigma values than have traditionally been looked at, the conclusion is reached that across-wafer, wafer-to-wafer and lot-to-lot variation will have to overscale for any technology introducing EUV lithography where stochastic noise is a significant fraction of the effective dose variation. We will emphasize stochastic effects on edge placement error distributions and appropriate design-rule setting. While CD distributions with long tails coming from stochastic effects do bring increased risk of failure (especially on chips that may have over a billion failure opportunities per layer) there are other sources of variation that have sharp cutoffs, i.e. have no tails. We will review these sources and show how distributions with different skew and kurtosis values combine.

Adolescents' as Active Agents in the Socialization Process: Legitimacy of Parental Authority and Obligation to Obey as Predictors of Obedience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darling, Nancy; Cumsille, Patricio; Loreto Martinez, M.

2007-01-01

Adolescents' agreement with parental standards and beliefs about the legitimacy of parental authority and their own obligation to obey were used to predict adolescents' obedience, controlling for parental monitoring, rules, and rule enforcement. Hierarchical linear models were used to predict both between-adolescent and within-adolescent,…

Category Learning in Rhesus Monkeys: A Study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, J. David; Minda, John Paul; Washburn, David A.

2004-01-01

In influential research, R. N. Shepard, C. I. Hovland, and H. M. Jenkins (1961) surveyed humans' categorization abilities using tasks based in rules, exclusive-or (XOR) relations, and exemplar memorization. Humans' performance was poorly predicted by cue-conditioning or stimulus-generalization theories, causing Shepard et al. to describe it in…

The Goal Structure of a Socratic Tutor. Technical Report No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Albert L.; Collins, Allan

This report describes the current version of the Why System, a script-based Socratic tutor which uses tutoring strategies formulated as production rules. The current system is capable of carrying on a dialogue about the factors influencing rainfall by presenting different cases to the student, asking for predictions, probing for relevant factors,…

76 FR 81437 - Proposed Significant New Use Rule for Phenol, 2,4-dimethyl-6-(1-methylpentadecyl)-

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-28

... Activity Relationships (EcoSAR) dataset for phenols has been significantly updated to include 203 chemicals... result, when the most recent version of EcoSAR was run for phenol, 2,4-dimethyl-6-(1-methylpentadecyl... the new EcoSAR prediction of no expected acute or chronic adverse ecological effects. Therefore, based...

A PRIM approach to predictive-signature development for patient stratification

PubMed Central

Chen, Gong; Zhong, Hua; Belousov, Anton; Devanarayan, Viswanath

2015-01-01

Patients often respond differently to a treatment because of individual heterogeneity. Failures of clinical trials can be substantially reduced if, prior to an investigational treatment, patients are stratified into responders and nonresponders based on biological or demographic characteristics. These characteristics are captured by a predictive signature. In this paper, we propose a procedure to search for predictive signatures based on the approach of patient rule induction method. Specifically, we discuss selection of a proper objective function for the search, present its algorithm, and describe a resampling scheme that can enhance search performance. Through simulations, we characterize conditions under which the procedure works well. To demonstrate practical uses of the procedure, we apply it to two real-world data sets. We also compare the results with those obtained from a recent regression-based approach, Adaptive Index Models, and discuss their respective advantages. In this study, we focus on oncology applications with survival responses. PMID:25345685

Robot decisions: on the importance of virtuous judgment in clinical decision making.

PubMed

Gelhaus, Petra

2011-10-01

The aim of this article is to argue for the necessity of emotional professional virtues in the understanding of good clinical practice. This understanding is required for a proper balance of capacities in medical education and further education of physicians. For this reason an ideal physician, incarnating the required virtues, skills and knowledge is compared with a non-emotional robot that is bound to moral rules. This fictive confrontation is meant to clarify why certain demands on the personality of the physician are justified, in addition to a rule- and principle-based moral orientation and biomedical knowledge and skills. Philosophical analysis of thought experiments inspired by science fiction literature by Isaac Asimov. Although prima facie a rule-oriented robot seems more reliable and trustworthy, the complexity of clinical judgment is not met by an encompassing and never contradictory set of rules from which one could logically derive decisions. There are different ways how the robot could still work, but at the cost of the predictability of its behaviour and its moral orientation. In comparison, a virtuous human doctor who is also bound to these rules, although less strictly, will more reliably keep at moral objectives, be understandable, be more flexible in case the rules come to their limits, and will be more predictable in these critical situations. Apart from these advantages of the virtuous human doctor referring to her own person, the most problematic deficit of the robot is its lacking deeper understanding of the inner mental events of patients which makes good contact, good communication and good influence impossible. Although an infallibly rule-oriented robot seems more reliable at first view, in situations that require complex decisions like clinical practice the agency of a moral human person is more trustworthy. Furthermore, the understanding of the patient's emotions must remain insufficient for a non-emotional, non-human being. Because these are crucial preconditions for good clinical practice, enough attention should be given to develop these virtues and emotional skills, in addition to the usual attention on knowledge, technical skills and the obedience to moral rules and principles. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Prospective Coding by Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Brea, Johanni; Gaál, Alexisz Tamás; Senn, Walter

2016-01-01

Animals learn to make predictions, such as associating the sound of a bell with upcoming feeding or predicting a movement that a motor command is eliciting. How predictions are realized on the neuronal level and what plasticity rule underlies their learning is not well understood. Here we propose a biologically plausible synaptic plasticity rule to learn predictions on a single neuron level on a timescale of seconds. The learning rule allows a spiking two-compartment neuron to match its current firing rate to its own expected future discounted firing rate. For instance, if an originally neutral event is repeatedly followed by an event that elevates the firing rate of a neuron, the originally neutral event will eventually also elevate the neuron’s firing rate. The plasticity rule is a form of spike timing dependent plasticity in which a presynaptic spike followed by a postsynaptic spike leads to potentiation. Even if the plasticity window has a width of 20 milliseconds, associations on the time scale of seconds can be learned. We illustrate prospective coding with three examples: learning to predict a time varying input, learning to predict the next stimulus in a delayed paired-associate task and learning with a recurrent network to reproduce a temporally compressed version of a sequence. We discuss the potential role of the learning mechanism in classical trace conditioning. In the special case that the signal to be predicted encodes reward, the neuron learns to predict the discounted future reward and learning is closely related to the temporal difference learning algorithm TD(λ). PMID:27341100

The Role of Culture and Acculturation in Researchers' Perceptions of Rules in Science.

PubMed

Antes, Alison L; English, Tammy; Baldwin, Kari A; DuBois, James M

2018-04-01

Successfully navigating the norms of a society is a complex task that involves recognizing diverse kinds of rules as well as the relative weight attached to them. In the United States (U.S.), different kinds of rules-federal statutes and regulations, scientific norms, and professional ideals-guide the work of researchers. Penalties for violating these different kinds of rules and norms can range from the displeasure of peers to criminal sanctions. We proposed that it would be more difficult for researchers working in the U.S. who were born in other nations to distinguish the seriousness of violating rules across diverse domains. We administered a new measure, the evaluating rules in science task (ERST), to National Institutes of Health-funded investigators (101 born in the U.S. and 102 born outside of the U.S.). The ERST assessed perceptions of the seriousness of violating research regulations, norms, and ideals, and allowed us to calculate the degree to which researchers distinguished between the seriousness of each rule category. The ERST also assessed researchers' predictions of the seriousness that research integrity officers (RIOs) would assign to the rules. We compared researchers' predictions to the seriousness ratings of 112 RIOs working at U.S. research-intensive universities. U.S.-born researchers were significantly better at distinguishing between the seriousness of violating federal research regulations and violating ideals of science, and they were more accurate in their predictions of the views of RIOs. Acculturation to the U.S. moderated the effects of nationality on accuracy. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of future research and education.

Language Symmetry: A Force behind Persuasion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeager, Joseph; Sommer, Linda

2012-01-01

Language operates according to rules. Rules mean prediction. The application of these language rules to persuasive campaigns through linguistic technology can result in major gains in advertising, political and marketing outcomes. For qualitative researchers in communications, marketing and messaging, one area of persuasive language technology can…

The impact of egocentric vs. allocentric agency attributions on the neural bases of reasoning about social rules.

PubMed

Canessa, Nicola; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Crespi, Chiara; Gorini, Alessandra; Cappa, Stefano F

2014-09-18

We used the "standard" and "switched" social contract versions of the Wason Selection-task to investigate the neural bases of human reasoning about social rules. Both these versions typically elicit the deontically correct answer, i.e. the proper identification of the violations of a conditional obligation. Only in the standard version of the task, however, this response corresponds to the logically correct one. We took advantage of this differential adherence to logical vs. deontical accuracy to test the different predictions of logic rule-based vs. visuospatial accounts of inferential abilities in 14 participants who solved the standard and switched versions of the Selection-task during functional-Magnetic-Resonance-Imaging. Both versions activated the well known left fronto-parietal network of deductive reasoning. The standard version additionally recruited the medial parietal and right inferior parietal cortex, previously associated with mental imagery and with the adoption of egocentric vs. allocentric spatial reference frames. These results suggest that visuospatial processes encoding one's own subjective experience in social interactions may support and shape the interpretation of deductive arguments and/or the resulting inferences, thus contributing to elicit content effects in human reasoning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipatory Monitoring and Control of Complex Systems using a Fuzzy based Fusion of Support Vector Regressors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miltiadis Alamaniotis; Vivek Agarwal

This paper places itself in the realm of anticipatory systems and envisions monitoring and control methods being capable of making predictions over system critical parameters. Anticipatory systems allow intelligent control of complex systems by predicting their future state. In the current work, an intelligent model aimed at implementing anticipatory monitoring and control in energy industry is presented and tested. More particularly, a set of support vector regressors (SVRs) are trained using both historical and observed data. The trained SVRs are used to predict the future value of the system based on current operational system parameter. The predicted values are thenmore » inputted to a fuzzy logic based module where the values are fused to obtain a single value, i.e., final system output prediction. The methodology is tested on real turbine degradation datasets. The outcome of the approach presented in this paper highlights the superiority over single support vector regressors. In addition, it is shown that appropriate selection of fuzzy sets and fuzzy rules plays an important role in improving system performance.« less

Household Implementation of Smoke-Free Rules in Homes and Cars: A Focus on Adolescent Smoking Behavior and Secondhand Smoke Exposure.

PubMed

Parks, Michael J; Kingsbury, John H; Boyle, Raymond G; Evered, Sharrilyn

2018-01-01

This study addresses the dearth of population-based research on how comprehensive household smoke-free rules (ie, in the home and car) relate to tobacco use and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among adolescents. Analysis of 2014 Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey. Representative sample of Minnesota youth. A total of 1287 youth who lived with a smoker. Measures included household smoke-free rules (no rules, partial rules-home or car, but not both-and comprehensive rules), lifetime and 30-day cigarette use, 30-day cigarette and other product use, and SHS exposure in past 7 days in home and car. Weighted multivariate logistic, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used. Compared to comprehensive rules, partial and no smoke-free rules were significantly and positively related to lifetime cigarette use (respectively, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24-2.61; AOR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.93-4.25), and a similar significant pattern was found for 30-day cigarette use (respectively, AOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.21-4.02; AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.34-4.50). No smoke-free rules significantly predicted using cigarettes and other tobacco products compared to comprehensive rules. In both descriptive and regression analyses, we found SHS exposure rates in both the home and car were significantly lower among youth whose household implemented comprehensive smoke-free rules. Comprehensive smoke-free rules protect youth from the harms of caregiver tobacco use. Relative to both partial and no smoke-free rules, comprehensive smoke-free rules have a marked impact on tobacco use and SHS exposure among youth who live with a smoker. Health promotion efforts should promote comprehensive smoke-free rules among all households and particularly households with children and adolescents.

Pharmaceuticals' sorptions relative to properties of thirteen different soils.

PubMed

Kodešová, Radka; Grabic, Roman; Kočárek, Martin; Klement, Aleš; Golovko, Oksana; Fér, Miroslav; Nikodem, Antonín; Jakšík, Ondřej

2015-04-01

Transport of human and veterinary pharmaceuticals in soils and consequent ground-water contamination are influenced by many factors, including compound sorption on soil particles. Here we evaluate the sorption isotherms for 7 pharmaceuticals on 13 soils, described by Freundlich equations, and assess the impact of soil properties on various pharmaceuticals' sorption on soils. Sorption of ionizable pharmaceuticals was, in many cases, highly affected by soil pH. The sorption coefficient of sulfamethoxazole was negatively correlated to soil pH, and thus positively related to hydrolytic acidity and exchangeable acidity. Sorption coefficients for clindamycin and clarithromycin were positively related to soil pH and thus negatively related to hydrolytic acidity and exchangeable acidity, and positively related to base cation saturation. The sorption coefficients for the remaining pharmaceuticals (trimethoprim, metoprolol, atenolol, and carbamazepine) were also positively correlated with the base cation saturation and cation exchange capacity. Positive correlations between sorption coefficients and clay content were found for clindamycin, clarithromycin, atenolol, and metoprolol. Positive correlations between sorption coefficients and organic carbon content were obtained for trimethoprim and carbamazepine. Pedotransfer rules for predicting sorption coefficients of various pharmaceuticals included hydrolytic acidity (sulfamethoxazole), organic carbon content (trimethoprimand carbamazepine), base cation saturation (atenolol and metoprolol), exchangeable acidity and clay content (clindamycin), and soil active pH and clay content (clarithromycin). Pedotransfer rules, predicting the Freundlich sorption coefficients, could be applied for prediction of pharmaceutical mobility in soils with similar soil properties. Predicted sorption coefficients together with pharmaceutical half-lives and other imputes (e.g., soil-hydraulic, geological, hydro-geological, climatic) may be used for assessing potential ground-water contamination. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a framework for agent-based image analysis of remote-sensing data

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Peter; Lettmayer, Paul; Blaschke, Thomas; Belgiu, Mariana; Wegenkittl, Stefan; Graf, Roland; Lampoltshammer, Thomas Josef; Andrejchenko, Vera

2015-01-01

Object-based image analysis (OBIA) as a paradigm for analysing remotely sensed image data has in many cases led to spatially and thematically improved classification results in comparison to pixel-based approaches. Nevertheless, robust and transferable object-based solutions for automated image analysis capable of analysing sets of images or even large image archives without any human interaction are still rare. A major reason for this lack of robustness and transferability is the high complexity of image contents: Especially in very high resolution (VHR) remote-sensing data with varying imaging conditions or sensor characteristics, the variability of the objects’ properties in these varying images is hardly predictable. The work described in this article builds on so-called rule sets. While earlier work has demonstrated that OBIA rule sets bear a high potential of transferability, they need to be adapted manually, or classification results need to be adjusted manually in a post-processing step. In order to automate these adaptation and adjustment procedures, we investigate the coupling, extension and integration of OBIA with the agent-based paradigm, which is exhaustively investigated in software engineering. The aims of such integration are (a) autonomously adapting rule sets and (b) image objects that can adopt and adjust themselves according to different imaging conditions and sensor characteristics. This article focuses on self-adapting image objects and therefore introduces a framework for agent-based image analysis (ABIA). PMID:27721916

Towards a framework for agent-based image analysis of remote-sensing data.

PubMed

Hofmann, Peter; Lettmayer, Paul; Blaschke, Thomas; Belgiu, Mariana; Wegenkittl, Stefan; Graf, Roland; Lampoltshammer, Thomas Josef; Andrejchenko, Vera

2015-04-03

Object-based image analysis (OBIA) as a paradigm for analysing remotely sensed image data has in many cases led to spatially and thematically improved classification results in comparison to pixel-based approaches. Nevertheless, robust and transferable object-based solutions for automated image analysis capable of analysing sets of images or even large image archives without any human interaction are still rare. A major reason for this lack of robustness and transferability is the high complexity of image contents: Especially in very high resolution (VHR) remote-sensing data with varying imaging conditions or sensor characteristics, the variability of the objects' properties in these varying images is hardly predictable. The work described in this article builds on so-called rule sets. While earlier work has demonstrated that OBIA rule sets bear a high potential of transferability, they need to be adapted manually, or classification results need to be adjusted manually in a post-processing step. In order to automate these adaptation and adjustment procedures, we investigate the coupling, extension and integration of OBIA with the agent-based paradigm, which is exhaustively investigated in software engineering. The aims of such integration are (a) autonomously adapting rule sets and (b) image objects that can adopt and adjust themselves according to different imaging conditions and sensor characteristics. This article focuses on self-adapting image objects and therefore introduces a framework for agent-based image analysis (ABIA).

Systematic methods for knowledge acquisition and expert system development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belkin, Brenda L.; Stengel, Robert F.

1991-01-01

Nine cooperating rule-based systems, collectively called AUTOCREW, were designed to automate functions and decisions associated with a combat aircraft's subsystem. The organization of tasks within each system is described; performance metrics were developed to evaluate the workload of each rule base, and to assess the cooperation between the rule-bases. Each AUTOCREW subsystem is composed of several expert systems that perform specific tasks. AUTOCREW's NAVIGATOR was analyzed in detail to understand the difficulties involved in designing the system and to identify tools and methodologies that ease development. The NAVIGATOR determines optimal navigation strategies from a set of available sensors. A Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) expert system was systematically designed from Kalman filter covariance data; four ground-based, a satellite-based, and two on-board INS-aiding sensors were modeled and simulated to aid an INS. The NSM Expert was developed using the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 algorithm. Navigation strategy selection is based on an RSS position error decision metric, which is computed from the covariance data. Results show that the NSM Expert predicts position error correctly between 45 and 100 percent of the time for a specified navaid configuration and aircraft trajectory. The NSM Expert adapts to new situations, and provides reasonable estimates of hybrid performance. The systematic nature of the ANOVA/ID3 method makes it broadly applicable to expert system design when experimental or simulation data is available.

Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms.

PubMed

Kene, Mamata V; Ballard, Dustin W; Vinson, David R; Rauchwerger, Adina S; Iskin, Hilary R; Kim, Anthony S

2015-09-01

We evaluated emergency physicians' (EP) current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. The response rate was 68% (366/535). Respondents' median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified). Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT) (74%). Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49%) and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation) testing (30%); however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests' bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively). Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability.

Integrated modelling of stormwater treatment systems uptake.

PubMed

Castonguay, A C; Iftekhar, M S; Urich, C; Bach, P M; Deletic, A

2018-05-24

Nature-based solutions provide a variety of benefits in growing cities, ranging from stormwater treatment to amenity provision such as aesthetics. However, the decision-making process involved in the installation of such green infrastructure is not straightforward, as much uncertainty around the location, size, costs and benefits impedes systematic decision-making. We developed a model to simulate decision rules used by local municipalities to install nature-based stormwater treatment systems, namely constructed wetlands, ponds/basins and raingardens. The model was used to test twenty-four scenarios of policy-making, by combining four asset selection, two location selection and three budget constraint decision rules. Based on the case study of a local municipality in Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, the modelled uptake of stormwater treatment systems was compared with attributes of real-world systems for the simulation period. Results show that the actual budgeted funding is not reliable to predict systems' uptake and that policy-makers are more likely to plan expenditures based on installation costs. The model was able to replicate the cumulative treatment capacity and the location of systems. As such, it offers a novel approach to investigate the impact of using different decision rules to provide environmental services considering biophysical and economic factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical physics of nucleosome positioning and chromatin structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morozov, Alexandre

2012-02-01

Genomic DNA is packaged into chromatin in eukaryotic cells. The fundamental building block of chromatin is the nucleosome, a 147 bp-long DNA molecule wrapped around the surface of a histone octamer. Arrays of nucleosomes are positioned along DNA according to their sequence preferences and folded into higher-order chromatin fibers whose structure is poorly understood. We have developed a framework for predicting sequence-specific histone-DNA interactions and the effective two-body potential responsible for ordering nucleosomes into regular higher-order structures. Our approach is based on the analogy between nucleosomal arrays and a one-dimensional fluid of finite-size particles with nearest-neighbor interactions. We derive simple rules which allow us to predict nucleosome occupancy solely from the dinucleotide content of the underlying DNA sequences.Dinucleotide content determines the degree of stiffness of the DNA polymer and thus defines its ability to bend into the nucleosomal superhelix. As expected, the nucleosome positioning rules are universal for chromatin assembled in vitro on genomic DNA from baker's yeast and from the nematode worm C.elegans, where nucleosome placement follows intrinsic sequence preferences and steric exclusion. However, the positioning rules inferred from in vivo C.elegans chromatin are affected by global nucleosome depletion from chromosome arms relative to central domains, likely caused by the attachment of the chromosome arms to the nuclear membrane. Furthermore, intrinsic nucleosome positioning rules are overwritten in transcribed regions, indicating that chromatin organization is actively managed by the transcriptional and splicing machinery.

FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

PubMed

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-02-18

About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR).

Reasoning with alternative explanations in physics: The cognitive accessibility rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckler, Andrew F.; Bogdan, Abigail M.

2018-06-01

A critical component of scientific reasoning is the consideration of alternative explanations. Recognizing that decades of cognitive psychology research have demonstrated that relative cognitive accessibility, or "what comes to mind," strongly affects how people reason in a given context, we articulate a simple "cognitive accessibility rule", namely that alternative explanations are considered less frequently when an explanation with relatively high accessibility is offered first. In a series of four experiments, we test the cognitive accessibility rule in the context of consideration of alternative explanations for six physical scenarios commonly found in introductory physics curricula. First, we administer free recall and recognition tasks to operationally establish and distinguish between the relative accessibility and availability of common explanations for the physical scenarios. Then, we offer either high or low accessibility explanations for the physical scenarios and determine the extent to which students consider alternatives to the given explanations. We find two main results consistent across algebra- and calculus-based university level introductory physics students for multiple answer formats. First, we find evidence that, at least for some contexts, most explanatory factors are cognitively available to students but not cognitively accessible. Second, we empirically verify the cognitive accessibility rule and demonstrate that the rule is strongly predictive, accounting for up to 70% of the variance of the average student consideration of alternative explanations across scenarios. Overall, we find that cognitive accessibility can help to explain biases in the consideration of alternatives in reasoning about simple physical scenarios, and these findings lend support to the growing number of science education studies demonstrating that tasks relevant to science education curricula often involve rapid, automatic, and potentially predictable processes and outcomes.

Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

2015-08-11

The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

Development and external validation of a prediction rule for an unfavorable course of late-life depression: A multicenter cohort study.

PubMed

Maarsingh, O R; Heymans, M W; Verhaak, P F; Penninx, B W J H; Comijs, H C

2018-08-01

Given the poor prognosis of late-life depression, it is crucial to identify those at risk. Our objective was to construct and validate a prediction rule for an unfavourable course of late-life depression. For development and internal validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO) data. We included participants with a major depressive disorder (MDD) at baseline (n = 270; 60-90 years), assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). For external validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) data (n = 197; 50-66 years). The outcome was MDD after 2 years of follow-up, assessed with the CIDI. Candidate predictors concerned sociodemographics, psychopathology, physical symptoms, medication, psychological determinants, and healthcare setting. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and discrimination. 111 subjects (41.1%) had MDD after 2 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of MDD after 2 years were (older) age, (early) onset of depression, severity of depression, anxiety symptoms, comorbid anxiety disorder, fatigue, and loneliness. The final model showed good calibration and reasonable discrimination (AUC of 0.75; 0.70 after external validation). The strongest individual predictor was severity of depression (AUC of 0.69; 0.68 after external validation). The model was developed and validated in The Netherlands, which could affect the cross-country generalizability. Based on rather simple clinical indicators, it is possible to predict the 2-year course of MDD. The prediction rule can be used for monitoring MDD patients and identifying those at risk of an unfavourable outcome. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Every look matters: appraisals of faces follow distinct rules of information integration under arousing versus non-arousing conditions.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Martina; Baumann, Nicola

2018-03-19

In this research, we investigated whether appraisals of faces follow distinct rules of information integration under arousing versus non-arousing conditions. Support for this prediction was found in four experiments in which participants observed angry (and fearful) faces that were presented with a direct versus an averted gaze (Experiments 1a, b), on a red versus a grey background (Experiment 2), and after performing a motor exercise versus no exercise (Experiment 3). Under arousing conditions, participants' appraisals of faces reflected summation (i.e. extremely negative encounters were strengthened by moderately negative encounters) whereas, under non-arousing conditions, appraisals did not reflect summation (i.e. extremely negative encounters were weakened by moderately negative encounters) and could instead be accounted for by three alternative rules of information integration based on averaging, mere exposure, or the number of strong stimuli.

ORTHO-PARA SELECTION RULES IN THE GAS-PHASE CHEMISTRY OF INTERSTELLAR AMMONIA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faure, A.; Hily-Blant, P.; Le Gal, R.

The ortho-para chemistry of ammonia in the cold interstellar medium is investigated using a gas-phase chemical network. Branching ratios for the primary reaction chain involved in the formation and destruction of ortho- and para-NH{sub 3} were derived using angular momentum rules based on the conservation of the nuclear spin. We show that the 'anomalous' ortho-to-para ratio of ammonia ({approx}0.7) observed in various interstellar regions is in fact consistent with nuclear spin selection rules in a para-enriched H{sub 2} gas. This ratio is found to be independent of temperature in the range 5-30 K. We also predict an ortho-to-para ratio ofmore » {approx}2.3 for NH{sub 2}. We conclude that a low ortho-to-para ratio of H{sub 2} naturally drives the ortho-to-para ratios of nitrogen hydrides below the statistical values.« less

Cell division plane orientation based on tensile stress in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Louveaux, Marion; Julien, Jean-Daniel; Mirabet, Vincent; Boudaoud, Arezki; Hamant, Olivier

2016-01-01

Cell geometry has long been proposed to play a key role in the orientation of symmetric cell division planes. In particular, the recently proposed Besson–Dumais rule generalizes Errera’s rule and predicts that cells divide along one of the local minima of plane area. However, this rule has been tested only on tissues with rather local spherical shape and homogeneous growth. Here, we tested the application of the Besson–Dumais rule to the divisions occurring in the Arabidopsis shoot apex, which contains domains with anisotropic curvature and differential growth. We found that the Besson–Dumais rule works well in the central part of the apex, but fails to account for cell division planes in the saddle-shaped boundary region. Because curvature anisotropy and differential growth prescribe directional tensile stress in that region, we tested the putative contribution of anisotropic stress fields to cell division plane orientation at the shoot apex. To do so, we compared two division rules: geometrical (new plane along the shortest path) and mechanical (new plane along maximal tension). The mechanical division rule reproduced the enrichment of long planes observed in the boundary region. Experimental perturbation of mechanical stress pattern further supported a contribution of anisotropic tensile stress in division plane orientation. Importantly, simulations of tissues growing in an isotropic stress field, and dividing along maximal tension, provided division plane distributions comparable to those obtained with the geometrical rule. We thus propose that division plane orientation by tensile stress offers a general rule for symmetric cell division in plants. PMID:27436908

Towards collaborative filtering recommender systems for tailored health communications.

PubMed

Marlin, Benjamin M; Adams, Roy J; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient "profiles" and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user's past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy.

Towards Collaborative Filtering Recommender Systems for Tailored Health Communications

PubMed Central

Marlin, Benjamin M.; Adams, Roy J.; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K.

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient “profiles” and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user’s past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy. PMID:24551430

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Vienna, John D.; Kim, Dong-Sang

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable WOL was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of IHLW glass when no uncertainties were taken into accound. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimatedmore » glass mass 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). ILAW mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with weaste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MTG. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.« less

Poor early response to methotrexate portends inadequate long-term outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: Evidence from 2 phase 3 clinical trials.

PubMed

Gordon, Kenneth B; Betts, Keith A; Sundaram, Murali; Signorovitch, James E; Li, Junlong; Xie, Meng; Wu, Eric Q; Okun, Martin M

2017-12-01

Most methotrexate-treated psoriasis patients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of a Clinical Prediction Rule and a LAM Antigen-Detection Assay for the Rapid Diagnosis of TBM in a High HIV Prevalence Setting

PubMed Central

Patel, Vinod B.; Singh, Ravesh; Connolly, Cathy; Kasprowicz, Victoria; Zumla, Allimudin; Ndungu, Thumbi; Dheda, Keertan

2010-01-01

Background/Objective The diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) in resource poor TB endemic environments is challenging. The accuracy of current tools for the rapid diagnosis of TBM is suboptimal. We sought to develop a clinical-prediction rule for the diagnosis of TBM in a high HIV prevalence setting, and to compare performance outcomes to conventional diagnostic modalities and a novel lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen detection test (Clearview-TB®) using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Methods Patients with suspected TBM were classified as definite-TBM (CSF culture or PCR positive), probable-TBM and non-TBM. Results Of the 150 patients, 84% were HIV-infected (median [IQR] CD4 count = 132 [54; 241] cells/µl). There were 39, 55 and 54 patients in the definite, probable and non-TBM groups, respectively. The LAM sensitivity and specificity (95%CI) was 31% (17;48) and 94% (85;99), respectively (cut-point ≥0.18). By contrast, smear-microscopy was 100% specific but detected none of the definite-TBM cases. LAM positivity was associated with HIV co-infection and low CD4 T cell count (CD4<200 vs. >200 cells/µl; p = 0.03). The sensitivity and specificity in those with a CD4<100 cells/µl was 50% (27;73) and 95% (74;99), respectively. A clinical-prediction rule ≥6 derived from multivariate analysis had a sensitivity and specificity (95%CI) of 47% (31;64) and 98% (90;100), respectively. When LAM was combined with the clinical-prediction-rule, the sensitivity increased significantly (p<0.001) to 63% (47;68) and specificity remained high at 93% (82;98). Conclusions Despite its modest sensitivity the LAM ELISA is an accurate rapid rule-in test for TBM that has incremental value over smear-microscopy. The rule-in value of LAM can be further increased by combination with a clinical-prediction rule, thus enhancing the rapid diagnosis of TBM in HIV-infected persons with advanced immunosuppression. PMID:21203513

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

2004-11-01

In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much-needed research into the coastal response to sea-level rise.

Validation of the Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society criteria to predict severe community-acquired pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae.

PubMed

Kontou, Paschalina; Kuti, Joseph L; Nicolau, David P

2009-10-01

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is usually defined as pneumonia that requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission; the primary pathogen responsible for ICU admission is Streptococcus pneumoniae. In this study, the 2007 Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) consensus criteria for ICU admission were compared with other severity scores in predicting ICU admission and mortality. We retrospectively studied 158 patients with pneumococcal CAP (1999-2003). Clinical and laboratory features at the emergency department were recorded and used to calculate the 2007 IDSA/ATS rule, the 2001 ATS rule, 2 modified 2007 IDSA/ATS rules, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), and the CURB (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure) score. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed for the various indices. We also determined the criteria that were independently predictive of ICU admission and of mortality in our population. The 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria performed as well as the 2001 ATS rule in predicting ICU admission both demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) and NPV (97%). For the prediction of mortality, the best tool proved to be the PSI score (sensitivity, 95%; NPV, 99%). The variables associated with ICU admission in this patient population included tachypnea, confusion, Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio of 250 or lower, and hypotension requiring fluid resuscitation. Mechanical ventilation and PSI class V were independently associated with mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of the new criteria in predicting severe CAP. The 2001 ATS criteria seem an attractive alternative because they are simple and as effective as the 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria.

Comparison of Natural Language Processing Rules-based and Machine-learning Systems to Identify Lumbar Spine Imaging Findings Related to Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Tan, W Katherine; Hassanpour, Saeed; Heagerty, Patrick J; Rundell, Sean D; Suri, Pradeep; Huhdanpaa, Hannu T; James, Kathryn; Carrell, David S; Langlotz, Curtis P; Organ, Nancy L; Meier, Eric N; Sherman, Karen J; Kallmes, David F; Luetmer, Patrick H; Griffith, Brent; Nerenz, David R; Jarvik, Jeffrey G

2018-03-28

To evaluate a natural language processing (NLP) system built with open-source tools for identification of lumbar spine imaging findings related to low back pain on magnetic resonance and x-ray radiology reports from four health systems. We used a limited data set (de-identified except for dates) sampled from lumbar spine imaging reports of a prospectively assembled cohort of adults. From N = 178,333 reports, we randomly selected N = 871 to form a reference-standard dataset, consisting of N = 413 x-ray reports and N = 458 MR reports. Using standardized criteria, four spine experts annotated the presence of 26 findings, where 71 reports were annotated by all four experts and 800 were each annotated by two experts. We calculated inter-rater agreement and finding prevalence from annotated data. We randomly split the annotated data into development (80%) and testing (20%) sets. We developed an NLP system from both rule-based and machine-learned models. We validated the system using accuracy metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The multirater annotated dataset achieved inter-rater agreement of Cohen's kappa > 0.60 (substantial agreement) for 25 of 26 findings, with finding prevalence ranging from 3% to 89%. In the testing sample, rule-based and machine-learned predictions both had comparable average specificity (0.97 and 0.95, respectively). The machine-learned approach had a higher average sensitivity (0.94, compared to 0.83 for rules-based), and a higher overall AUC (0.98, compared to 0.90 for rules-based). Our NLP system performed well in identifying the 26 lumbar spine findings, as benchmarked by reference-standard annotation by medical experts. Machine-learned models provided substantial gains in model sensitivity with slight loss of specificity, and overall higher AUC. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. All rights reserved.

Short-range forecast of Shershnevskoie (South Ural) water-storage algal blooms: preliminary results of predictors' choosing and membership functions' construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayazova, Anna; Abdullaev, Sanjar

2014-05-01

Short-range forecasting of algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs and other waterbodies is an actual element of water treatment system. Particularly, Shershnevskoie reservoir - the source of drinking water for Chelyabinsk city (South Ural region of Russia) - is exposed to interannual, seasonal and short-range fluctuations of blue-green alga Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and other dominant species abundance, which lead to technological problems and economic costs and adversely affect the water treatment quality. Whereas the composition, intensity and the period of blooms affected not only by meteorological seasonal conditions but also by ecological specificity of waterbody, that's important to develop object-oriented forecasting, particularly, search for an optimal number of predictors for such forecasting. Thereby, firstly fuzzy logic and fuzzy artificial neural network patterns for blue-green alga Microcystis aeruginosa (M. aeruginosa) blooms prediction in nearby undrained Smolino lake were developed. These results subsequently served as the base to derive membership functions for Shernevskoie reservoir forecasting patterns. Time series with the total lenght about 138-159 days of dominant species seasonal abundance, water temperature, cloud cover, wind speed, mineralization, phosphate and nitrate concentrations were obtained through field observations held at Lake Smolino (Chelyabinsk) in the warm season of 2009 and 2011 with time resolution of 2-7 days. The cross-correlation analysis of the data revealed the potential predictors of M. aeruginosa abundance quasi-periodic oscillations: green alga Pediastrum duplex (P. duplex) abundance and mineralization for 2009, P. duplex abundance, water temperature and concentration of nitrates for 2011. According to the results of cross-correlation analysis one membership function "P. duplex abundance" and one rule linking M. aeruginosa and P. duplex abundances were set up for database of 2009. Analogically, for database of 2011 three rules, linking membership functions of temperature, P. duplex abundance, nitrate concentration and M. aeruginosa abundance were set up. Developed fuzzy logic rules were good to predict M. aeruginosa intense outbreaks. For ANN method of forecasting specially written program was used to train the fuzzy artificial neural network on number of input selected predictors' values and output predicted factor's values to set up the predictive rules and membership functions automatically. As a result, two models based on mineralization and P. duplex abundance were developed for 2009. For 2011 four patterns were developed, the best result was obtained for model based on temperature and P. duplex abundance. Developed methods of forecasting were applied to predict outbreaks of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and M. aeruginosa abundance in Shershnevskoie reservoir. For this purpose long-term data of chemical parameters, measured once in a month, data of dominant species abundance, measured fifth in a week and data of turbidity, water color, alkalinity, pH, obtained each day, were analyzed. Based on these empirical data significant factors were determined, membership functions were set up and preliminary models for Shershnevskoie reservoir were developed. As expected, these models differ significantly from developed for Smolino lake ones and should be tested on new data sets.

The use of sonographic subjective tumor assessment, IOTA logistic regression model 1, IOTA Simple Rules and GI-RADS system in the preoperative prediction of malignancy in women with adnexal masses.

PubMed

Koneczny, Jarosław; Czekierdowski, Artur; Florczak, Marek; Poziemski, Paweł; Stachowicz, Norbert; Borowski, Dariusz

2017-01-01

Sonography based methods with various tumor markers are currently used to discriminate the type of adnexal masses. To compare the predictive value of selected sonography-based models along with subjective assessment in ovarian cancer prediction. We analyzed data of 271 women operated because of adnexal masses. All masses were verified by histological examination. Preoperative sonography was performed in all patients and various predictive models includ¬ing IOTA group logistic regression model LR1 (LR1), IOTA simple ultrasound-based rules by IOTA (SR), GI-RADS and risk of malignancy index (RMI3) were used. ROC curves were constructed and respective AUC's with 95% CI's were compared. Of 271 masses 78 proved to be malignant including 6 borderline tumors. LR1 had sensitivity of 91.0%, specificity of 91.2%, AUC = 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92-0.98). Sensitivity for GI-RADS for 271 patients was 88.5% with specificity of 85% and AUC = 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95). Subjective assessment yielded sensitivity and specificity of 85.9% and 96.9%, respectively with AUC = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-0.99). SR were applicable in 236 masses and had sensitivity of 90.6% with specificity of 95.3% and AUC = 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97). RMI3 was calculated only in 104 women who had CA125 available and had sensitivity of 55.3%, specificity of 94% and AUC = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.77-0.93). Although subjective assessment by the ultrasound expert remains the best current method of adnexal tumors preoperative discrimination, the simplicity and high predictive value favor the IOTA SR method, and when not applicable, the IOTA LR1 or GI-RADS models to be primarily and effectively used.

Hybrid incompatibilities in the parasitic wasp genus Nasonia: negative effects of hemizygosity and the identification of transmission ratio distortion loci

PubMed Central

Koevoets, T; Niehuis, O; van de Zande, L; Beukeboom, L W

2012-01-01

The occurrence of hybrid incompatibilities forms an important stage during the evolution of reproductive isolation. In early stages of speciation, males and females often respond differently to hybridization. Haldane's rule states that the heterogametic sex suffers more from hybridization than the homogametic sex. Although haplodiploid reproduction (haploid males, diploid females) does not involve sex chromosomes, sex-specific incompatibilities are predicted to be prevalent in haplodiploid species. Here, we evaluate the effect of sex/ploidy level on hybrid incompatibilities and locate genomic regions that cause increased mortality rates in hybrid males of the haplodiploid wasps Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia longicornis. Our data show that diploid F1 hybrid females suffer less from hybridization than haploid F2 hybrid males. The latter not only suffer from an increased mortality rate, but also from behavioural and spermatogenic sterility. Genetic mapping in recombinant F2 male hybrids revealed that the observed hybrid mortality is most likely due to a disruption of cytonuclear interactions. As these sex-specific hybrid incompatibilities follow predictions based on Haldane's rule, our data accentuate the need to broaden the view of Haldane's rule to include species with haplodiploid sex determination, consistent with Haldane's original definition. PMID:21878985

Clinical prediction rule for differentiating tuberculous from viral meningitis.

PubMed

Hristea, A; Olaru, I D; Baicus, C; Moroti, R; Arama, V; Ion, M

2012-06-01

The Professor Dr Matei Bals National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Bucharest, Romania. To create a prediction rule to enable clinicians to differentiate patients with tuberculous meningitis (TBM) from those with viral meningitis. We retrospectively analysed patients admitted to a tertiary care facility between 2001 and 2011 with viral meningitis and TBM. Patients were defined as having TBM according to a recently published consensus definition, and as viral meningitis if a viral aetiology was confirmed, or after ruling out bacterial, fungal and non-infectious causes of meningitis. We identified 433 patients with viral meningitis and 101 TBM patients and compared their clinical and laboratory features. Multivariable analysis showed a statistically significant association between TBM and the following variables: duration of symptoms before admission of ≥5 days, presence of neurological impairment (altered consciousness, seizures, mild focal signs, multiple cranial nerve palsies, dense hemiplegia or paraparesis), cerebrospinal fluid/blood glucose ratio < 0.5 and cerebrospinal fluid protein level > 100 mg/dl. We propose a diagnostic score based on the coefficients derived from the logistic regression model with a sensitivity and specificity for TBM of respectively 92% and 94%. Our study suggests that easily available clinical and laboratory data are very useful for differentiating TBM from other causes of meningitis.

Influence of topology in the mobility enhancement of pulse-coupled oscillator synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beardo, A.; Prignano, L.; Sagarra, O.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

2017-12-01

In this work we revisit the nonmonotonic behavior (NMB) of synchronization time with velocity reported for systems of mobile pulse-coupled oscillators (PCOs). We devise a control parameter that allows us to predict in which range of velocities NMB may occur, also uncovering the conditions allowing us to establish the emergence of NMB based on specific features of the connectivity rule. Specifically, our results show that if the connectivity rule is such that the interaction patterns are sparse and, more importantly, include a large fraction of nonreciprocal interactions, then the system will display NMB. We furthermore provide a microscopic explanation relating the presence of such features of the connectivity patterns to the existence of local clusters unable to synchronize, termed frustrated clusters, for which we also give a precise definition in terms of simple graph concepts. We conclude that, if the probability of finding a frustrated cluster in a system of moving PCOs is high enough, NMB occurs in a predictable range of velocities.

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

PubMed

Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-11-27

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically. PMID:29173280

Prediction value of the Canadian CT head rule and the New Orleans criteria for positive head CT scan and acute neurosurgical procedures in minor head trauma: a multicenter external validation study.

PubMed

Bouida, Wahid; Marghli, Soudani; Souissi, Sami; Ksibi, Hichem; Methammem, Mehdi; Haguiga, Habib; Khedher, Sonia; Boubaker, Hamdi; Beltaief, Kaouthar; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Trimech, Mohamed Naceur; Kerkeni, Wiem; Chebili, Nawfel; Halila, Imen; Rejeb, Imen; Boukef, Riadh; Rekik, Noureddine; Bouhaja, Bechir; Letaief, Mondher; Nouira, Semir

2013-05-01

The New Orleans Criteria and the Canadian CT Head Rule have been developed to decrease the number of normal computed tomography (CT) results in mild head injury. We compare the performance of both decision rules for identifying patients with intracranial traumatic lesions and those who require an urgent neurosurgical intervention after mild head injury. This was an observational cohort study performed between 2008 and 2011 on patients with mild head injury who were aged 10 years or older. We collected prospectively clinical head CT scan findings and outcome. Primary outcome was need for neurosurgical intervention, defined as either death or craniotomy, or the need of intubation within 15 days of the traumatic event. Secondary outcome was the presence of traumatic lesions on head CT scan. New Orleans Criteria and Canadian CT Head Rule decision rules were compared by using sensitivity specifications and positive and negative predictive value. We enrolled 1,582 patients. Neurosurgical intervention was performed in 34 patients (2.1%) and positive CT findings were demonstrated in 218 patients (13.8%). Sensitivity and specificity for need for neurosurgical intervention were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90% to 100%) and 60% (95% CI 44% to 76%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 82% (95% CI 69% to 95%) and 26% (95% CI 24% to 28%) for the New Orleans Criteria. Negative predictive values for the above-mentioned clinical decision rules were 100% and 99% and positive values were 5% and 2%, respectively, for the Canadian CT Head Rule and New Orleans Criteria. Sensitivity and specificity for clinical significant head CT findings were 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) and 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 86% (95% CI 81% to 91%) and 28% (95% CI 26% to 30%) for the New Orleans Criteria. A similar trend of results was found in the subgroup of patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15. For patients with mild head injury, the Canadian CT Head Rule had higher sensitivity than the New Orleans Criteria, with higher negative predictive value. The question of whether the use of the Canadian CT Head Rule would have a greater influence on head CT scan reduction requires confirmation in real clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renormalisation group corrections to neutrino mixing sum rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrlein, J.; Petcov, S. T.; Spinrath, M.; Titov, A. V.

2016-11-01

Neutrino mixing sum rules are common to a large class of models based on the (discrete) symmetry approach to lepton flavour. In this approach the neutrino mixing matrix U is assumed to have an underlying approximate symmetry form Ũν, which is dictated by, or associated with, the employed (discrete) symmetry. In such a setup the cosine of the Dirac CP-violating phase δ can be related to the three neutrino mixing angles in terms of a sum rule which depends on the symmetry form of Ũν. We consider five extensively discussed possible symmetry forms of Ũν: i) bimaximal (BM) and ii) tri-bimaximal (TBM) forms, the forms corresponding to iii) golden ratio type A (GRA) mixing, iv) golden ratio type B (GRB) mixing, and v) hexagonal (HG) mixing. For each of these forms we investigate the renormalisation group corrections to the sum rule predictions for δ in the cases of neutrino Majorana mass term generated by the Weinberg (dimension 5) operator added to i) the Standard Model, and ii) the minimal SUSY extension of the Standard Model.

Diagnosing malignant melanoma in ambulatory care: a systematic review of clinical prediction rules.

PubMed

Harrington, Emma; Clyne, Barbara; Wesseling, Nieneke; Sandhu, Harkiran; Armstrong, Laura; Bennett, Holly; Fahey, Tom

2017-03-06

Malignant melanoma has high morbidity and mortality rates. Early diagnosis improves prognosis. Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can be used to stratify patients with symptoms of suspected malignant melanoma to improve early diagnosis. We conducted a systematic review of CPRs for melanoma diagnosis in ambulatory care. Systematic review. A comprehensive search of PubMed, EMBASE, PROSPERO, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and SCOPUS was conducted in May 2015, using combinations of keywords and medical subject headings (MeSH) terms. Studies deriving and validating, validating or assessing the impact of a CPR for predicting melanoma diagnosis in ambulatory care were included. Data extraction and methodological quality assessment were guided by the CHARMS checklist. From 16 334 studies reviewed, 51 were included, validating the performance of 24 unique CPRs. Three impact analysis studies were identified. Five studies were set in primary care. The most commonly evaluated CPRs were the ABCD, more than one or uneven distribution of Colour, or a large (greater than 6 mm) Diameter (ABCD) dermoscopy rule (at a cut-point of >4.75; 8 studies; pooled sensitivity 0.85, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93, specificity 0.72, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.78) and the 7-point dermoscopy checklist (at a cut-point of ≥1 recommending ruling in melanoma; 11 studies; pooled sensitivity 0.77, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88, specificity 0.80, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.92). The methodological quality of studies varied. At their recommended cut-points, the ABCD dermoscopy rule is more useful for ruling out melanoma than the 7-point dermoscopy checklist. A focus on impact analysis will help translate melanoma risk prediction rules into useful tools for clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The role of correlations in uncertainty quantification of transportation relevant fuel models

DOE PAGES

Fridlyand, Aleksandr; Johnson, Matthew S.; Goldsborough, S. Scott; ...

2017-02-03

Large reaction mechanisms are often used to describe the combustion behavior of transportation-relevant fuels like gasoline, where these are typically represented by surrogate blends, e.g., n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene. We describe efforts to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions of such mechanisms at realistic engine conditions, seeking to better understand the robustness of the model as well as the important reaction pathways and their impacts on combustion behavior. In this work, we examine the importance of taking into account correlations among reactions that utilize the same rate rules and those with multiple product channels on forward propagation of uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulations.more » Automated means are developed to generate the uncertainty factor assignment for a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, by first uniquely identifying each reacting species, then sorting each of the reactions based on the rate rule utilized. Simulation results reveal that in the low temperature combustion regime for iso-octane, the majority of the uncertainty in the model predictions can be attributed to low temperature reactions of the fuel sub-mechanism. The foundational, or small-molecule chemistry (C 0-C 4) only contributes significantly to uncertainties in the predictions at the highest temperatures (Tc=900 K). Accounting for correlations between important reactions is shown to produce non-negligible differences in the estimates of uncertainty. Including correlations among reactions that use the same rate rules increases uncertainty in the model predictions, while accounting for correlations among reactions with multiple branches decreases uncertainty in some cases. Significant non-linear response is observed in the model predictions depending on how the probability distributions of the uncertain rate constants are defined.Finally, we concluded that care must be exercised in defining these probability distributions in order to reduce bias, and physically unrealistic estimates in the forward propagation of uncertainty for a range of UQ activities.« less

Using the Functional Prerequisites to Communication Rules as a Structure for Rule-Behavior Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fairhurst, Gail Theus

This paper points out that the available research on communication rules tends to be descriptive (or humanistic) in nature and characterized by a conspicuous absence of prediction along with experimental methods and parametric interpretations of social behavior. The paper first argues that current scientific methodology is consistent with a…

Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kene, Mamata V.; Ballard, Dustin W.; Vinson, David R.; Rauchwerger, Adina S.; Iskin, Hilary R.; Kim, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Introduction We evaluated emergency physicians’ (EP) current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. Methods We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. Results The response rate was 68% (366/535). Respondents’ median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified). Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT) (74%). Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49%) and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation) testing (30%); however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests’ bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively). Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. Conclusion EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability. PMID:26587108

Community-based participatory research to decrease smoking prevalence in a high-risk young adult population: an evaluation of the Students Against Nicotine and Tobacco Addiction (SANTA) project.

PubMed

Mendenhall, Tai J; Harper, Peter G; Henn, Lisa; Rudser, Kyle D; Schoeller, Bill P

2014-03-01

Students Against Nicotine and Tobacco Addiction is a community-based participatory research project that engages local medical and mental health providers in partnership with students, teachers, and administrators at the Minnesota-based Job Corps. This intervention contains multiple and synchronous elements designed to allay the stress that students attribute to smoking, including physical activities, nonphysical activities, purposeful modifications to the campus's environment and rules/policies, and on-site smoking cessation education and peer support. The intent of the present investigation was to evaluate (a) the types of stress most predictive of smoking behavior and/or nicotine dependence, (b) which activities students are participating in, and (c) which activities are most predictive of behavior change (or readiness to change). Quantitative data were collected through 5 campus-wide surveys. Response rates for each survey exceeded 85%. Stressors most commonly cited included struggles to find a job, financial problems, family conflict, lack of privacy or freedom, missing family or being homesick, dealing with Job Corps rules, and other-unspecified. The most popular activities in which students took part were physically active ones. However, activities most predictive of beneficent change were nonphysical. Approximately one third of respondents were nicotine dependent at baseline. Nearly half intended to quit within 1 month and 74% intended to quit within 6 months. Interventions perceived as most helpful toward reducing smoking were nonphysical in nature. Future efforts with this and comparable populations should engage youth in advancing such activities within a broader range of activity choices, alongside conventional education and support.

Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Tait, A B; Pomroy, W E

2017-08-30

Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-30

... Corporation 12 CFR Parts 324, 325 Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule... 325 RIN 3064-AD97 Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk... the agencies' current capital rules. In this NPR (Advanced Approaches and Market Risk NPR) the...

Speciation in Western Scrub-Jays, Haldane’s rule, and genetic clines in secondary contact

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Haldane’s Rule, the tendency for the heterogametic sex to show reduced fertility in hybrid crosses, can obscure the signal of gene flow in mtDNA between species where females are heterogametic. Therefore, it is important when studying speciation and species limits in female-heterogametic species like birds to assess the signature of gene flow in the nuclear genome as well. We studied introgression of microsatellites and mtDNA across a secondary contact zone between coastal and interior lineages of Western Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma californica) to test for a signature of Haldane’s Rule: a narrower cline of introgression in mtDNA compared to nuclear markers. Results Our initial phylogeographic analysis revealed that there is only one major area of contact between coastal and interior lineages and identified five genetic clusters with strong spatial structuring: Pacific Slope, Interior US, Edwards Plateau (Texas), Northern Mexico, and Southern Mexico. Consistent with predictions from Haldane’s Rule, mtDNA showed a narrower cline than nuclear markers across a transect through the hybrid zone. This result is not being driven by female-biased dispersal because neutral diffusion analysis, which included estimates of sex-specific dispersal rates, also showed less diffusion of mtDNA. Lineage-specific plumage traits were associated with nuclear genetic profiles for individuals in the hybrid zone, indicating that these differences are under genetic control. Conclusions This study adds to a growing list of studies that support predictions of Haldane’s Rule using cline analysis of multiple loci of differing inheritance modes, although alternate hypotheses like selection on different mtDNA types cannot be ruled out. That Haldane’s Rule appears to be operating in this system suggests a measure of reproductive isolation between the Pacific Slope and interior lineages. Based on a variety of evidence from the phenotype, ecology, and genetics, we recommend elevating three lineages to species level: A. californica (Pacific Slope); A. woodhouseii (Interior US plus Edwards Plateau plus Northern Mexico); A. sumichrasti (Southern Mexico). The distinctive Edwards Plateau population in Texas, which was monophyletic in mtDNA except for one individual, should be studied in greater detail given habitat threat. PMID:24938753

Exploration of SWRL Rule Bases through Visualization, Paraphrasing, and Categorization of Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanpour, Saeed; O'Connor, Martin J.; Das, Amar K.

Rule bases are increasingly being used as repositories of knowledge content on the Semantic Web. As the size and complexity of these rule bases increases, developers and end users need methods of rule abstraction to facilitate rule management. In this paper, we describe a rule abstraction method for Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL) rules that is based on lexical analysis and a set of heuristics. Our method results in a tree data structure that we exploit in creating techniques to visualize, paraphrase, and categorize SWRL rules. We evaluate our approach by applying it to several biomedical ontologies that contain SWRL rules, and show how the results reveal rule patterns within the rule base. We have implemented our method as a plug-in tool for Protégé-OWL, the most widely used ontology modeling software for the Semantic Web. Our tool can allow users to rapidly explore content and patterns in SWRL rule bases, enabling their acquisition and management.

Predictions for the Dirac C P -violating phase from sum rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgadillo, Luis A.; Everett, Lisa L.; Ramos, Raymundo; Stuart, Alexander J.

2018-05-01

We explore the implications of recent results relating the Dirac C P -violating phase to predicted and measured leptonic mixing angles within a standard set of theoretical scenarios in which charged lepton corrections are responsible for generating a nonzero value of the reactor mixing angle. We employ a full set of leptonic sum rules as required by the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix, which can be reduced to predictions for the observable mixing angles and the Dirac C P -violating phase in terms of model parameters. These sum rules are investigated within a given set of theoretical scenarios for the neutrino sector diagonalization matrix for several known classes of charged lepton corrections. The results provide explicit maps of the allowed model parameter space within each given scenario and assumed form of charged lepton perturbations.

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications.

PubMed

Coleman, Craig I; Peacock, W Frank; Fermann, Gregory J; Crivera, Concetta; Weeda, Erin R; Hull, Michael; DuCharme, Mary; Becker, Laura; Schein, Jeff R

2016-10-22

Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication) and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death) were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4-95.8) and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4-21.1). Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3-96.5) and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7-21.5) for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9-89.2) and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2-22.0) for any complication. IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

Probability of criminal acts of violence: a test of jury predictive accuracy.

PubMed

Reidy, Thomas J; Sorensen, Jon R; Cunningham, Mark D

2013-01-01

The ability of capital juries to accurately predict future prison violence at the sentencing phase of aggravated murder trials was examined through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of 115 male inmates sentenced to either life (n = 65) or death (n = 50) in Oregon from 1985 through 2008, with a mean post-conviction time at risk of 15.3 years. Violent prison behavior was completely unrelated to predictions made by capital jurors, with bidirectional accuracy simply reflecting the base rate of assaultive misconduct in the group. Rejection of the special issue predicting future violence enjoyed 90% accuracy. Conversely, predictions that future violence was probable had 90% error rates. More than 90% of the assaultive rule violations committed by these offenders resulted in no harm or only minor injuries. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Astrophysics: quark matter in compact stars?

PubMed

Alford, M; Blaschke, D; Drago, A; Klähn, T; Pagliara, G; Schaffner-Bielich, J

2007-01-18

In a theoretical interpretation of observational data from the neutron star EXO 0748-676, Ozel concludes that quark matter probably does not exist in the centre of neutron stars. However, this conclusion is based on a limited set of possible equations of state for quark matter. Here we compare Ozel's observational limits with predictions based on a more comprehensive set of proposed quark-matter equations of state from the literature, and conclude that the presence of quark matter in EXO 0748-676 is not ruled out.

Multicenter Evaluation of a 0-Hour/1-Hour Algorithm in the Diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction With High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T.

PubMed

Mueller, Christian; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Christ, Michael; Ordóñez-Llanos, Jorge; deFilippi, Christopher; McCord, James; Body, Richard; Panteghini, Mauro; Jernberg, Tomas; Plebani, Mario; Verschuren, Franck; French, John; Christenson, Robert; Weiser, Silvia; Bendig, Garnet; Dilba, Peter; Lindahl, Bertil

2016-07-01

We aim to prospectively validate the diagnostic accuracy of the recently developed 0-h/1-h algorithm, using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) for the early rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction. We enrolled patients presenting with suspected acute myocardial infarction and recent (<6 hours) onset of symptoms to the emergency department in a global multicenter diagnostic study. Hs-cTnT (Roche Diagnostics) and sensitive cardiac troponin I (Siemens Healthcare) were measured at presentation and after 1 hour, 2 hours, and 4 to 14 hours in a central laboratory. Patient triage according to the predefined hs-cTnT 0-hour/1-hour algorithm (hs-cTnT below 12 ng/L and Δ1 hour below 3 ng/L to rule out; hs-cTnT at least 52 ng/L or Δ1 hour at least 5 ng/L to rule in; remaining patients to the "observational zone") was compared against a centrally adjudicated final diagnosis by 2 independent cardiologists (reference standard). The final diagnosis was based on all available information, including coronary angiography and echocardiography results, follow-up data, and serial measurements of sensitive cardiac troponin I, whereas adjudicators remained blinded to hs-cTnT. Among 1,282 patients enrolled, acute myocardial infarction was the final diagnosis for 213 (16.6%) patients. Applying the hs-cTnT 0-hour/1-hour algorithm, 813 (63.4%) patients were classified as rule out, 184 (14.4%) were classified as rule in, and 285 (22.2%) were triaged to the observational zone. This resulted in a negative predictive value and sensitivity for acute myocardial infarction of 99.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 98.2% to 99.7%) and 96.7% (95% CI 93.4% to 98.7%) in the rule-out zone (7 patients with false-negative results), a positive predictive value and specificity for acute myocardial infarction of 77.2% (95% CI 70.4% to 83.0%) and 96.1% (95% CI 94.7% to 97.2%) in the rule-in zone, and a prevalence of acute myocardial infarction of 22.5% in the observational zone. The hs-cTnT 0-hour/1-hour algorithm performs well for early rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Analysis Pipeline with Statistical and Visualization-Guided Knowledge Discovery for Michigan-Style Learning Classifier Systems

PubMed Central

Urbanowicz, Ryan J.; Granizo-Mackenzie, Ambrose; Moore, Jason H.

2014-01-01

Michigan-style learning classifier systems (M-LCSs) represent an adaptive and powerful class of evolutionary algorithms which distribute the learned solution over a sizable population of rules. However their application to complex real world data mining problems, such as genetic association studies, has been limited. Traditional knowledge discovery strategies for M-LCS rule populations involve sorting and manual rule inspection. While this approach may be sufficient for simpler problems, the confounding influence of noise and the need to discriminate between predictive and non-predictive attributes calls for additional strategies. Additionally, tests of significance must be adapted to M-LCS analyses in order to make them a viable option within fields that require such analyses to assess confidence. In this work we introduce an M-LCS analysis pipeline that combines uniquely applied visualizations with objective statistical evaluation for the identification of predictive attributes, and reliable rule generalizations in noisy single-step data mining problems. This work considers an alternative paradigm for knowledge discovery in M-LCSs, shifting the focus from individual rules to a global, population-wide perspective. We demonstrate the efficacy of this pipeline applied to the identification of epistasis (i.e., attribute interaction) and heterogeneity in noisy simulated genetic association data. PMID:25431544

Evaluation of IOTA Simple Ultrasound Rules to Distinguish Benign and Malignant Ovarian Tumours.

PubMed

Garg, Sugandha; Kaur, Amarjit; Mohi, Jaswinder Kaur; Sibia, Preet Kanwal; Kaur, Navkiran

2017-08-01

IOTA stands for International Ovarian Tumour Analysis group. Ovarian cancer is one of the common cancers in women and is diagnosed at later stage in majority. The limiting factor for early diagnosis is lack of standardized terms and procedures in gynaecological sonography. Introduction of IOTA rules has provided some consistency in defining morphological features of ovarian masses through a standardized examination technique. To evaluate the efficacy of IOTA simple ultrasound rules in distinguishing benign and malignant ovarian tumours and establishing their use as a tool in early diagnosis of ovarian malignancy. A hospital based case control prospective study was conducted. Patients with suspected ovarian pathology were evaluated using IOTA ultrasound rules and designated as benign or malignant. Findings were correlated with histopathological findings. Collected data was statistically analysed using chi-square test and kappa statistical method. Out of initial 55 patients, 50 patients were included in the final analysis who underwent surgery. IOTA simple rules were applicable in 45 out of these 50 patients (90%). The sensitivity for the detection of malignancy in cases where IOTA simple rules were applicable was 91.66% and the specificity was 84.84%. Accuracy was 86.66%. Classifying inconclusive cases as malignant, the sensitivity and specificity was 93% and 80% respectively. High level of agreement was found between USG and histopathological diagnosis with Kappa value as 0.323. IOTA simple ultrasound rules were highly sensitive and specific in predicting ovarian malignancy preoperatively yet being reproducible, easy to train and use.

Automated time activity classification based on global positioning system (GPS) tracking data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Air pollution epidemiological studies are increasingly using global positioning system (GPS) to collect time-location data because they offer continuous tracking, high temporal resolution, and minimum reporting burden for participants. However, substantial uncertainties in the processing and classifying of raw GPS data create challenges for reliably characterizing time activity patterns. We developed and evaluated models to classify people's major time activity patterns from continuous GPS tracking data. Methods We developed and evaluated two automated models to classify major time activity patterns (i.e., indoor, outdoor static, outdoor walking, and in-vehicle travel) based on GPS time activity data collected under free living conditions for 47 participants (N = 131 person-days) from the Harbor Communities Time Location Study (HCTLS) in 2008 and supplemental GPS data collected from three UC-Irvine research staff (N = 21 person-days) in 2010. Time activity patterns used for model development were manually classified by research staff using information from participant GPS recordings, activity logs, and follow-up interviews. We evaluated two models: (a) a rule-based model that developed user-defined rules based on time, speed, and spatial location, and (b) a random forest decision tree model. Results Indoor, outdoor static, outdoor walking and in-vehicle travel activities accounted for 82.7%, 6.1%, 3.2% and 7.2% of manually-classified time activities in the HCTLS dataset, respectively. The rule-based model classified indoor and in-vehicle travel periods reasonably well (Indoor: sensitivity > 91%, specificity > 80%, and precision > 96%; in-vehicle travel: sensitivity > 71%, specificity > 99%, and precision > 88%), but the performance was moderate for outdoor static and outdoor walking predictions. No striking differences in performance were observed between the rule-based and the random forest models. The random forest model was fast and easy to execute, but was likely less robust than the rule-based model under the condition of biased or poor quality training data. Conclusions Our models can successfully identify indoor and in-vehicle travel points from the raw GPS data, but challenges remain in developing models to distinguish outdoor static points and walking. Accurate training data are essential in developing reliable models in classifying time-activity patterns. PMID:22082316

Automated time activity classification based on global positioning system (GPS) tracking data.

PubMed

Wu, Jun; Jiang, Chengsheng; Houston, Douglas; Baker, Dean; Delfino, Ralph

2011-11-14

Air pollution epidemiological studies are increasingly using global positioning system (GPS) to collect time-location data because they offer continuous tracking, high temporal resolution, and minimum reporting burden for participants. However, substantial uncertainties in the processing and classifying of raw GPS data create challenges for reliably characterizing time activity patterns. We developed and evaluated models to classify people's major time activity patterns from continuous GPS tracking data. We developed and evaluated two automated models to classify major time activity patterns (i.e., indoor, outdoor static, outdoor walking, and in-vehicle travel) based on GPS time activity data collected under free living conditions for 47 participants (N = 131 person-days) from the Harbor Communities Time Location Study (HCTLS) in 2008 and supplemental GPS data collected from three UC-Irvine research staff (N = 21 person-days) in 2010. Time activity patterns used for model development were manually classified by research staff using information from participant GPS recordings, activity logs, and follow-up interviews. We evaluated two models: (a) a rule-based model that developed user-defined rules based on time, speed, and spatial location, and (b) a random forest decision tree model. Indoor, outdoor static, outdoor walking and in-vehicle travel activities accounted for 82.7%, 6.1%, 3.2% and 7.2% of manually-classified time activities in the HCTLS dataset, respectively. The rule-based model classified indoor and in-vehicle travel periods reasonably well (Indoor: sensitivity > 91%, specificity > 80%, and precision > 96%; in-vehicle travel: sensitivity > 71%, specificity > 99%, and precision > 88%), but the performance was moderate for outdoor static and outdoor walking predictions. No striking differences in performance were observed between the rule-based and the random forest models. The random forest model was fast and easy to execute, but was likely less robust than the rule-based model under the condition of biased or poor quality training data. Our models can successfully identify indoor and in-vehicle travel points from the raw GPS data, but challenges remain in developing models to distinguish outdoor static points and walking. Accurate training data are essential in developing reliable models in classifying time-activity patterns.

Systematic asymmetric nucleotide exchanges produce human mitochondrial RNAs cryptically encoding for overlapping protein coding genes.

PubMed

Seligmann, Hervé

2013-05-07

GenBank's EST database includes RNAs matching exactly human mitochondrial sequences assuming systematic asymmetric nucleotide exchange-transcription along exchange rules: A→G→C→U/T→A (12 ESTs), A→U/T→C→G→A (4 ESTs), C→G→U/T→C (3 ESTs), and A→C→G→U/T→A (1 EST), no RNAs correspond to other potential asymmetric exchange rules. Hypothetical polypeptides translated from nucleotide-exchanged human mitochondrial protein coding genes align with numerous GenBank proteins, predicted secondary structures resemble their putative GenBank homologue's. Two independent methods designed to detect overlapping genes (one based on nucleotide contents analyses in relation to replicative deamination gradients at third codon positions, and circular code analyses of codon contents based on frame redundancy), confirm nucleotide-exchange-encrypted overlapping genes. Methods converge on which genes are most probably active, and which not, and this for the various exchange rules. Mean EST lengths produced by different nucleotide exchanges are proportional to (a) extents that various bioinformatics analyses confirm the protein coding status of putative overlapping genes; (b) known kinetic chemistry parameters of the corresponding nucleotide substitutions by the human mitochondrial DNA polymerase gamma (nucleotide DNA misinsertion rates); (c) stop codon densities in predicted overlapping genes (stop codon readthrough and exchanging polymerization regulate gene expression by counterbalancing each other). Numerous rarely expressed proteins seem encoded within regular mitochondrial genes through asymmetric nucleotide exchange, avoiding lengthening genomes. Intersecting evidence between several independent approaches confirms the working hypothesis status of gene encryption by systematic nucleotide exchanges. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel flowcytometry-based approach of malignant cell detection in body fluids using an automated hematology analyzer

PubMed Central

Tabe, Yoko; Takemura, Hiroyuki; Kimura, Konobu; Takahashi, Toshihiro; Yang, Haeun; Tsuchiya, Koji; Konishi, Aya; Uchihashi, Kinya; Horii, Takashi; Ohsaka, Akimichi

2018-01-01

Morphological microscopic examinations of nucleated cells in body fluid (BF) samples are performed to screen malignancy. However, the morphological differentiation is time-consuming and labor-intensive. This study aimed to develop a new flowcytometry-based gating analysis mode “XN-BF gating algorithm” to detect malignant cells using an automated hematology analyzer, Sysmex XN-1000. XN-BF mode was equipped with WDF white blood cell (WBC) differential channel. We added two algorithms to the WDF channel: Rule 1 detects larger and clumped cell signals compared to the leukocytes, targeting the clustered malignant cells; Rule 2 detects middle sized mononuclear cells containing less granules than neutrophils with similar fluorescence signal to monocytes, targeting hematological malignant cells and solid tumor cells. BF samples that meet, at least, one rule were detected as malignant. To evaluate this novel gating algorithm, 92 various BF samples were collected. Manual microscopic differentiation with the May-Grunwald Giemsa stain and WBC count with hemocytometer were also performed. The performance of these three methods were evaluated by comparing with the cytological diagnosis. The XN-BF gating algorithm achieved sensitivity of 63.0% and specificity of 87.8% with 68.0% for positive predictive value and 85.1% for negative predictive value in detecting malignant-cell positive samples. Manual microscopic WBC differentiation and WBC count demonstrated 70.4% and 66.7% of sensitivities, and 96.9% and 92.3% of specificities, respectively. The XN-BF gating algorithm can be a feasible tool in hematology laboratories for prompt screening of malignant cells in various BF samples. PMID:29425230

Novel flowcytometry-based approach of malignant cell detection in body fluids using an automated hematology analyzer.

PubMed

Ai, Tomohiko; Tabe, Yoko; Takemura, Hiroyuki; Kimura, Konobu; Takahashi, Toshihiro; Yang, Haeun; Tsuchiya, Koji; Konishi, Aya; Uchihashi, Kinya; Horii, Takashi; Ohsaka, Akimichi

2018-01-01

Morphological microscopic examinations of nucleated cells in body fluid (BF) samples are performed to screen malignancy. However, the morphological differentiation is time-consuming and labor-intensive. This study aimed to develop a new flowcytometry-based gating analysis mode "XN-BF gating algorithm" to detect malignant cells using an automated hematology analyzer, Sysmex XN-1000. XN-BF mode was equipped with WDF white blood cell (WBC) differential channel. We added two algorithms to the WDF channel: Rule 1 detects larger and clumped cell signals compared to the leukocytes, targeting the clustered malignant cells; Rule 2 detects middle sized mononuclear cells containing less granules than neutrophils with similar fluorescence signal to monocytes, targeting hematological malignant cells and solid tumor cells. BF samples that meet, at least, one rule were detected as malignant. To evaluate this novel gating algorithm, 92 various BF samples were collected. Manual microscopic differentiation with the May-Grunwald Giemsa stain and WBC count with hemocytometer were also performed. The performance of these three methods were evaluated by comparing with the cytological diagnosis. The XN-BF gating algorithm achieved sensitivity of 63.0% and specificity of 87.8% with 68.0% for positive predictive value and 85.1% for negative predictive value in detecting malignant-cell positive samples. Manual microscopic WBC differentiation and WBC count demonstrated 70.4% and 66.7% of sensitivities, and 96.9% and 92.3% of specificities, respectively. The XN-BF gating algorithm can be a feasible tool in hematology laboratories for prompt screening of malignant cells in various BF samples.

Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network head injuryprediction rules: on the basis of cost and effectiveness

PubMed

Gökharman, Fatma Dilek; Aydın, Sonay; Fatihoğlu, Erdem; Koşar, Pınar Nercis

2017-12-19

Background/aim: Head injuries are commonly seen in the pediatric population. Noncontrast enhanced cranial CT is the method of choice to detect possible traumatic brain injury (TBI). Concerns about ionizing radiation exposure make the evaluation more challenging. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rules in predicting clinically important TBI and to determine the amount of medical resource waste and unnecessary radiation exposure.Materials and methods: This retrospective study included 1041 pediatric patients presented to the emergency department. The patients were divided into subgroups of "appropriate for cranial CT", "not appropriate for cranial CT" and "cranial CT/observation of patient; both are appropriate". To determine the effectiveness of the PECARN rules, data were analyzed according to the presence of pathological findings Results: "Appropriate for cranial CT" results can predict pathology presence 118,056-fold compared to the "not appropriate for cranial CT" results. With "cranial CT/observation of patient; both are appropriate" results, pathology presence was predicted 11,457-fold compared to "not appropriate for cranial CT" results.Conclusion: PECARN rules can predict pathology presence successfully in pediatric TBI. Using PECARN can decrease resource waste and exposure to ionizing radiation.

Universal rule for the symmetric division of plant cells

PubMed Central

Besson, Sébastien; Dumais, Jacques

2011-01-01

The division of eukaryotic cells involves the assembly of complex cytoskeletal structures to exert the forces required for chromosome segregation and cytokinesis. In plants, empirical evidence suggests that tensional forces within the cytoskeleton cause cells to divide along the plane that minimizes the surface area of the cell plate (Errera’s rule) while creating daughter cells of equal size. However, exceptions to Errera’s rule cast doubt on whether a broadly applicable rule can be formulated for plant cell division. Here, we show that the selection of the plane of division involves a competition between alternative configurations whose geometries represent local area minima. We find that the probability of observing a particular division configuration increases inversely with its relative area according to an exponential probability distribution known as the Gibbs measure. Moreover, a comparison across land plants and their most recent algal ancestors confirms that the probability distribution is widely conserved and independent of cell shape and size. Using a maximum entropy formulation, we show that this empirical division rule is predicted by the dynamics of the tense cytoskeletal elements that lead to the positioning of the preprophase band. Based on the fact that the division plane is selected from the sole interaction of the cytoskeleton with cell shape, we posit that the new rule represents the default mechanism for plant cell division when internal or external cues are absent. PMID:21383128

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gervasio, V.; Kim, D. S.; Vienna, J. D.

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints, and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increasemore » in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.« less

Accuracy of risk scales for predicting repeat self-harm and suicide: a multicentre, population-level cohort study using routine clinical data.

PubMed

Steeg, Sarah; Quinlivan, Leah; Nowland, Rebecca; Carroll, Robert; Casey, Deborah; Clements, Caroline; Cooper, Jayne; Davies, Linda; Knipe, Duleeka; Ness, Jennifer; O'Connor, Rory C; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

2018-04-25

Risk scales are used widely in the management of patients presenting to hospital following self-harm. However, there is evidence that their diagnostic accuracy in predicting repeat self-harm is limited. Their predictive accuracy in population settings, and in identifying those at highest risk of suicide is not known. We compared the predictive accuracy of the Manchester Self-Harm Rule (MSHR), ReACT Self-Harm Rule (ReACT), SAD PERSONS Scale (SPS) and Modified SAD PERSONS Scale (MSPS) in an unselected sample of patients attending hospital following self-harm. Data on 4000 episodes of self-harm presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from four established monitoring systems in England. Episodes were assigned a risk category for each scale and followed up for 6 months. The episode-based repeat rate was 28% (1133/4000) and the incidence of suicide was 0.5% (18/3962). The MSHR and ReACT performed with high sensitivity (98% and 94% respectively) and low specificity (15% and 23%). The SPS and the MSPS performed with relatively low sensitivity (24-29% and 9-12% respectively) and high specificity (76-77% and 90%). The area under the curve was 71% for both MSHR and ReACT, 51% for SPS and 49% for MSPS. Differences in predictive accuracy by subgroup were small. The scales were less accurate at predicting suicide than repeat self-harm. The scales failed to accurately predict repeat self-harm and suicide. The findings support existing clinical guidance not to use risk classification scales alone to determine treatment or predict future risk.

Morphological and colour morph clines along an altitudinal gradient in the meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus.

PubMed

Köhler, Günter; Samietz, Jörg; Schielzeth, Holger

2017-01-01

Many animals show altitudinal clines in size, shape and body colour. Increases in body size and reduction in the length of body appendices in colder habitats are usually attributed to improved heat conservation at lower surface-to-volume ratios (known as Bergmann's and Allen's rule, respectively). However, the patterns are more variable and sometimes reversed in small ectotherms that are affected by shortened growing seasons. Altitude can also affect colouration. The thermal melanism hypothesis predicts darker colours under cooler conditions because of a thermoregulatory advantage. Darker colours may also be favoured at high altitudes for reasons of UV protection or habitat-dependent crypsis. We studied altitudinal variation in morphology and colour in the colour-polymorphic meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus based on 563 individuals from 17 populations sampled between 450 and 2,500 m asl. Pronotum length did not change with altitude, while postfemur length decreased significantly in both sexes. Tegmen (forewing) length decreased in males, but not in females. The results indicate that while body size, as best quantified by pronotum length, was remarkably constant, extended appendices were reduced at high altitudes. The pattern thus follows Allen's rule, but neither Bergmann's nor converse Bergmann's rule. These results indicate that inference of converse Bergmann's rule based on measurements from appendices should be treated with some caution. Colour morph ratios showed significant changes in both sexes from lowland populations dominated by green individuals to high-altitude populations dominated by brown ones. The increase of brown morphs was particularly steep between 1,500 and 2,000 m asl. The results suggest shared control of colour in males and females and local adaptation along the altitudinal gradient following the predictions of the thermal melanism hypothesis. Interestingly, both patterns, the reduction of body appendices and the higher frequency of brown individuals, may be explained by a need for efficient thermoregulation under high-altitude conditions.

Validation of the CORB75 (confusion, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥ 75 years) as a simpler pneumonia severity rule.

PubMed

Ochoa-Gondar, O; Vila-Corcoles, A; Rodriguez-Blanco, T; Hospital, I; Salsench, E; Ansa, X; Saun, N

2014-04-01

This study compares the ability of two simpler severity rules (classical CRB65 vs. proposed CORB75) in predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A population-based study was undertaken involving 610 patients ≥ 65 years old with radiographically confirmed CAP diagnosed between 2008 and 2011 in Tarragona, Spain (350 cases in the derivation cohort, 260 cases in the validation cohort). Severity rules were calculated at the time of diagnosis, and 30-day mortality was considered as the dependent variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to compare the discriminative power of the severity rules. Eighty deaths (46 in the derivation and 34 in the validation cohorts) were observed, which gives a mortality rate of 13.1 % (15.6 % for hospitalized and 3.3 % for outpatient cases). After multivariable analyses, besides CRB (confusion, respiration rate ≥ 30/min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg or diastolic ≤ 60 mmHg), peripheral oxygen saturation (≤ 90 %) and age ≥ 75 years appeared to be associated with increasing 30-day mortality in the derivation cohort. The model showed adequate calibration for the derivation and validation cohorts. A modified CORB75 scoring system (similar to the classical CRB65, but adding oxygen saturation and increasing the age to 75 years) was constructed. The AUC statistics for predicting mortality in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. In the derivation cohort, a CORB75 score ≥ 2 showed 78.3 % sensitivity and 65.5 % specificity for mortality (in the validation cohort, these were 82.4 and 71.7 %, respectively). The proposed CORB75 scoring system has good discriminative power in predicting short-term mortality among elderly people with CAP, which supports its use for severity assessment of these patients in primary care.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule to identify suspected breast cancer: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Galvin, Rose; Joyce, Doireann; Downey, Eithne; Boland, Fiona; Fahey, Tom; Hill, Arnold K

2014-10-03

The number of primary care referrals of women with breast symptoms to symptomatic breast units (SBUs) has increased exponentially in the past decade in Ireland. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to identify women with breast cancer so that a more evidence based approach to referral from primary care to these SBUs can be developed. We analysed routine data from a prospective cohort of consecutive women reviewed at a SBU with breast symptoms. The dataset was split into a derivation and validation cohort. Regression analysis was used to derive a CPR from the patient's history and clinical findings. Validation of the CPR consisted of estimating the number of breast cancers predicted to occur compared with the actual number of observed breast cancers across deciles of risk. A total of 6,590 patients were included in the derivation study and 4.9% were diagnosed with breast cancer. Independent clinical predictors for breast cancer were: increasing age by year (adjusted odds ratio 1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.09); presence of a lump (5.63, 95% CI 4.2-7.56); nipple change (2.77, 95% CI 1.68-4.58) and nipple discharge (2.09, 95% CI 1.1-3.97). Validation of the rule (n = 911) demonstrated that the probability of breast cancer was higher with an increasing number of these independent variables. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit showed no overall significant difference between the expected and the observed numbers of breast cancer (χ(2)HL: 6.74, p-value: 0.56). This study derived and validated a CPR for breast cancer in women attending an Irish national SBU. We found that increasing age, presence of a lump, nipple discharge and nipple change are all associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Further validation of the rule is necessary as well as an assessment of its impact on referral practice.

Modeling of full-Heusler alloys within tight-binding approximation: Case study of Fe2MnAl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azhar, A.; Majidi, M. A.; Nanto, D.

2017-07-01

Heusler alloys have been known for about a century, and predictions of magnetic moment values using Slater-Pauling rule have been successful for many such materials. However, such a simple counting rule has been found not to always work for all Heusler alloys. For instance, Fe2CuAl has been found to have magnetic moment of 3.30 µB per formula unit although the Slater-Pauling rule suggests the value of 2 µB. On the other hand, a recent experiment shows that a non-stoichiometric Heusler compound Fe2Mn0.5Cu0.5Al possesses magnetic moment of 4 µB, closer to the Slater-Pauling prediction for the stoichiometric compound. Such discrepancies signify that the theory to predict the magnetic moment of Heusler alloys in general is still far from being complete. Motivated by this issue, we propose to do a theoretical study on a full-Heusler alloy Fe2MnAl to understand the formation of magnetic moment microscopically. We model the system by constructing a density-functional-theory-based tight-binding Hamiltonian and incorporating Hubbard repulsive as well as spin-spin interactions for the electrons occupying the d-orbitals. Then, we solve the model using Green's function approach, and treat the interaction terms within the mean-field approximation. At this stage, we aim to formulate the computational algorithm for the overall calculation process. Our final goal is to compute the total magnetic moment per unit cell of this system and compare it with the experimental data.

Use of the University of Minnesota Biocatalysis/Biodegradation Database for study of microbial degradation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Microorganisms are ubiquitous on earth and have diverse metabolic transformative capabilities important for environmental biodegradation of chemicals that helps maintain ecosystem and human health. Microbial biodegradative metabolism is the main focus of the University of Minnesota Biocatalysis/Biodegradation Database (UM-BBD). UM-BBD data has also been used to develop a computational metabolic pathway prediction system that can be applied to chemicals for which biodegradation data is currently lacking. The UM-Pathway Prediction System (UM-PPS) relies on metabolic rules that are based on organic functional groups and predicts plausible biodegradative metabolism. The predictions are useful to environmental chemists that look for metabolic intermediates, for regulators looking for potential toxic products, for microbiologists seeking to understand microbial biodegradation, and others with a wide-range of interests. PMID:22587916

Using global sensitivity analysis to evaluate the uncertainties of future shoreline changes under the Bruun rule assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Oliveros, Carlos; Castelle, Bruno; Garcin, Manuel; Idier, Déborah; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rohmer, Jeremy

2016-04-01

Future sandy shoreline changes are often assed by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore effects. In such approaches, a contribution of sea-level rise can be incorporated by adding a supplementary term based on the Bruun rule. Here, our objective is to identify where and when the use of the Bruun rule can be (in)validated, in the case of wave-exposed beaches with gentle slopes. We first provide shoreline change scenarios that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting the idealized low- and high-energy coasts described by Stive (2004)[Stive, M. J. F. 2004, How important is global warming for coastal erosion? an editorial comment, Climatic Change, vol. 64, n 12, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024785.91858. ISSN 0165-0009]. Then, we generate shoreline change scenarios based on probabilistic sea-level rise projections based on IPCC. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defenses, the model predicts an observable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. On the contrary, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. To get insight into the relative importance of each source of uncertainties, we quantify each contributions to the variance of the model outcome using a global sensitivity analysis. This analysis shows that by the end of the 21st century, a large part of shoreline change uncertainties are due to the climate change scenario if all anthropogenic greenhousegas emission scenarios are considered equiprobable. To conclude, the analysis shows that under the assumptions above, (in)validating the Bruun rule should be straightforward during the second half of the 21st century and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Conversely, for RCP 2.6, the noise in shoreline change evolution should continue dominating the signal due to the Bruun effect. This last conclusion can be interpreted as an important potential benefit of climate change mitigation.

Assessing Post Conflict State Building Efforts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Develop a global partnership for development Target: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and finance system...Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation ), 2007, xvii. 15 Samuel Berger, Brent Scowcroft, and William L. Nash, “In...The Beginner’s Guide, xxi. 25 Richard A. Berk and Peter H. Rossi, Thinking About Program Evaluation 2, (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1999

LMSS drive simulator for multipath propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vishakantaiah, Praveen; Vogel, Wolfhard J.

1989-01-01

A three-dimensional drive simulator for the prediction of Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) multipath propagation was developed. It is based on simple physical and geometrical rules and can be used to evaluate effects of scatterer numbers and positions, receiving antenna pattern, and satellite frequency and position. It is shown that scatterers close to the receiver have the most effect and that directive antennas suppress multipath interference.

Controlling false-negative errors in microarray differential expression analysis: a PRIM approach.

PubMed

Cole, Steve W; Galic, Zoran; Zack, Jerome A

2003-09-22

Theoretical considerations suggest that current microarray screening algorithms may fail to detect many true differences in gene expression (Type II analytic errors). We assessed 'false negative' error rates in differential expression analyses by conventional linear statistical models (e.g. t-test), microarray-adapted variants (e.g. SAM, Cyber-T), and a novel strategy based on hold-out cross-validation. The latter approach employs the machine-learning algorithm Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to infer minimum thresholds for reliable change in gene expression from Boolean conjunctions of fold-induction and raw fluorescence measurements. Monte Carlo analyses based on four empirical data sets show that conventional statistical models and their microarray-adapted variants overlook more than 50% of genes showing significant up-regulation. Conjoint PRIM prediction rules recover approximately twice as many differentially expressed transcripts while maintaining strong control over false-positive (Type I) errors. As a result, experimental replication rates increase and total analytic error rates decline. RT-PCR studies confirm that gene inductions detected by PRIM but overlooked by other methods represent true changes in mRNA levels. PRIM-based conjoint inference rules thus represent an improved strategy for high-sensitivity screening of DNA microarrays. Freestanding JAVA application at http://microarray.crump.ucla.edu/focus

NLP-based Identification of Pneumonia Cases from Free-Text Radiological Reports

PubMed Central

Elkin, Peter L.; Froehling, David; Wahner-Roedler, Dietlind; Trusko, Brett; Welsh, Gail; Ma, Haobo; Asatryan, Armen X.; Tokars, Jerome I.; Rosenbloom, S. Trent; Brown, Steven H.

2008-01-01

Radiological reports are a rich source of clinical data which can be mined to assist with biosurveillance of emerging infectious diseases. In addition to biosurveillance, radiological reports are an important source of clinical data for health service research. Pneumonias and other radiological findings on chest xray or chest computed tomography (CT) are one type of relevant finding to both biosurveillance and health services research. In this study we examined the ability of a Natural Language Processing system to accurately identify pneumonias and other lesions from within free-text radiological reports. The system encoded the reports in the SNOMED CT Ontology and then a set of SNOMED CT based rules were created in our Health Archetype Language aimed at the identification of these radiological findings and diagnoses. The encoded rule was executed against the SNOMED CT encodings of the radiological reports. The accuracy of the reports was compared with a Clinician review of the Radiological Reports. The accuracy of the system in the identification of pneumonias was high with a Sensitivity (recall) of 100%, a specificity of 98%, and a positive predictive value (precision) of 97%. We conclude that SNOMED CT based computable rules are accurate enough for the automated biosurveillance of pneumonias from radiological reports. PMID:18998791

Stringent and efficient assessment of boson-sampling devices.

PubMed

Tichy, Malte C; Mayer, Klaus; Buchleitner, Andreas; Mølmer, Klaus

2014-07-11

Boson sampling holds the potential to experimentally falsify the extended Church-Turing thesis. The computational hardness of boson sampling, however, complicates the certification that an experimental device yields correct results in the regime in which it outmatches classical computers. To certify a boson sampler, one needs to verify quantum predictions and rule out models that yield these predictions without true many-boson interference. We show that a semiclassical model for many-boson propagation reproduces coarse-grained observables that are proposed as witnesses of boson sampling. A test based on Fourier matrices is demonstrated to falsify physically plausible alternatives to coherent many-boson propagation.

Integrated model of multiple kernel learning and differential evolution for EUR/USD trading.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Currency trading is an important area for individual investors, government policy decisions, and organization investments. In this study, we propose a hybrid approach referred to as MKL-DE, which combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) with differential evolution (DE) for trading a currency pair. MKL is used to learn a model that predicts changes in the target currency pair, whereas DE is used to generate the buy and sell signals for the target currency pair based on the relative strength index (RSI), while it is also combined with MKL as a trading signal. The new hybrid implementation is applied to EUR/USD trading, which is the most traded foreign exchange (FX) currency pair. MKL is essential for utilizing information from multiple information sources and DE is essential for formulating a trading rule based on a mixture of discrete structures and continuous parameters. Initially, the prediction model optimized by MKL predicts the returns based on a technical indicator called the moving average convergence and divergence. Next, a combined trading signal is optimized by DE using the inputs from the prediction model and technical indicator RSI obtained from multiple timeframes. The experimental results showed that trading using the prediction learned by MKL yielded consistent profits.

A Market-Basket Approach to Predict the Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Munitions and Energetic Materials.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D

2016-06-01

An ongoing challenge in chemical production, including the production of insensitive munitions and energetics, is the ability to make predictions about potential environmental hazards early in the process. To address this challenge, a quantitative structure activity relationship model was developed to predict acute fathead minnow toxicity of insensitive munitions and energetic materials. Computational predictive toxicology models like this one may be used to identify and prioritize environmentally safer materials early in their development. The developed model is based on the Apriori market-basket/frequent itemset mining approach to identify probabilistic prediction rules using chemical atom-pairs and the lethality data for 57 compounds from a fathead minnow acute toxicity assay. Lethality data were discretized into four categories based on the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals. Apriori identified toxicophores for categories two and three. The model classified 32 of the 57 compounds correctly, with a fivefold cross-validation classification rate of 74 %. A structure-based surrogate approach classified the remaining 25 chemicals correctly at 48 %. This result is unsurprising as these 25 chemicals were fairly unique within the larger set.

Young Children's Knowledge about the Influence of Thoughts on Emotions in Rule Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen

2008-01-01

Four-year-olds, 5-year-olds, and adults (N = 48) listened to stories featuring characters that experienced one of four types of thoughts after deciding to transgress or comply with a rule: thoughts about desires, rules, future negative outcomes, or future punishment. Participants predicted and explained the characters' emotions. Results showed…

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

First-principles prediction of a promising p-type transparent conductive material CsGeCl3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Dan; Zhao, Yu-Jun; Ju, Zhi-Ping; Gan, Li-Yong; Chen, Xin-Man; Li, Chang-Sheng; Yao, Chun-mei; Guo, Jin

2014-04-01

Most reported p-type transparent conductive materials are Cu-based compounds such as CuAlO2 and CuCrO2. Here, we report that compounds based on ns2 cations with low binding energy can also possess high valence band maximum, which is crucial for the p-type doping according to the doping limit rules. In particular, CsGeCl3, a compound with valence band maximum from ns2 cations, is predicted as a promising p-type transparent conductive material by first-principles calculations. Our results show that the p-type defect Ge vacancy dominates its intrinsic defects with a shallow transition level, and the calculated hole effective masses are low in CsGeCl3.

A retrospective study of two populations to test a simple rule for spirometry.

PubMed

Ohar, Jill A; Yawn, Barbara P; Ruppel, Gregg L; Donohue, James F

2016-06-04

Chronic lung disease is common and often under-diagnosed. To test a simple rule for conducting spirometry we reviewed spirograms from two populations, occupational medicine evaluations (OME) conducted by Saint Louis and Wake Forest Universities at 3 sites (n = 3260, mean age 64.14 years, 95 % CI 58.94-69.34, 97 % men) and conducted by Wake Forest University preop clinic (POC) at one site (n = 845, mean age 62.10 years, 95 % CI 50.46-73.74, 57 % men). This retrospective review of database information that the first author collected prospectively identified rates, types, sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value for lung function abnormalities and associated mortality rate found when conducting spirometry based on the 20/40 rule (≥20 years of smoking in those aged ≥ 40 years) in the OME population. To determine the reproducibility of the 20/40 rule for conducting spirometry, the rule was applied to the POC population. A lung function abnormality was found in 74 % of the OME population and 67 % of the POC population. Sensitivity of the rule was 85 % for an obstructive pattern and 77 % for any abnormality on spirometry. Positive and negative predictive values of the rule for a spirometric abnormality were 74 and 55 %, respectively. Patients with an obstructive pattern were at greater risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.39 [confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.93] vs. normal) and death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.53, 95 % CI 1.20-1.84) than subjects with normal spirometry. Restricted spirometry patterns were also associated with greater risk of coronary disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.7 [CI 1.23-2.35]) and death (Hazard ratio 1.40, 95 % CI 1.08-1.72). Smokers (≥ 20 pack years) age ≥ 40 years are at an increased risk for lung function abnormalities and those abnormalities are associated with greater presence of coronary heart disease and increased all-cause mortality. Use of the 20/40 rule could provide a simple method to enhance selection of candidates for spirometry evaluation in the primary care setting.

Power System Transient Stability Based on Data Mining Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Shi, Jia; Wu, Runsheng; Lu, Dan; Cui, Mingde

2018-01-01

In order to study the stability of power system, a power system transient stability based on data mining theory is designed. By introducing association rules analysis in data mining theory, an association classification method for transient stability assessment is presented. A mathematical model of transient stability assessment based on data mining technology is established. Meanwhile, combining rule reasoning with classification prediction, the method of association classification is proposed to perform transient stability assessment. The transient stability index is used to identify the samples that cannot be correctly classified in association classification. Then, according to the critical stability of each sample, the time domain simulation method is used to determine the state, so as to ensure the accuracy of the final results. The results show that this stability assessment system can improve the speed of operation under the premise that the analysis result is completely correct, and the improved algorithm can find out the inherent relation between the change of power system operation mode and the change of transient stability degree.

Procrastinating Behavior in Computer-Based Learning Environments to Predict Performance: A Case Study in Moodle

PubMed Central

Cerezo, Rebeca; Esteban, María; Sánchez-Santillán, Miguel; Núñez, José C.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Research about student performance has traditionally considered academic procrastination as a behavior that has negative effects on academic achievement. Although there is much evidence for this in class-based environments, there is a lack of research on Computer-Based Learning Environments (CBLEs). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate student behavior in a blended learning program and specifically procrastination behavior in relation to performance through Data Mining techniques. Materials and Methods: A sample of 140 undergraduate students participated in a blended learning experience implemented in a Moodle (Modular Object Oriented Developmental Learning Environment) Management System. Relevant interaction variables were selected for the study, taking into account student achievement and analyzing data by means of association rules, a mining technique. The association rules were arrived at and filtered through two selection criteria: 1, rules must have an accuracy over 0.8 and 2, they must be present in both sub-samples. Results: The findings of our study highlight the influence of time management in online learning environments, particularly on academic achievement, as there is an association between procrastination variables and student performance. Conclusion: Negative impact of procrastination in learning outcomes has been observed again but in virtual learning environments where practical implications, prevention of, and intervention in, are different from class-based learning. These aspects are discussed to help resolve student difficulties at various ages. PMID:28883801

Procrastinating Behavior in Computer-Based Learning Environments to Predict Performance: A Case Study in Moodle.

PubMed

Cerezo, Rebeca; Esteban, María; Sánchez-Santillán, Miguel; Núñez, José C

2017-01-01

Introduction: Research about student performance has traditionally considered academic procrastination as a behavior that has negative effects on academic achievement. Although there is much evidence for this in class-based environments, there is a lack of research on Computer-Based Learning Environments (CBLEs) . Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate student behavior in a blended learning program and specifically procrastination behavior in relation to performance through Data Mining techniques. Materials and Methods: A sample of 140 undergraduate students participated in a blended learning experience implemented in a Moodle (Modular Object Oriented Developmental Learning Environment) Management System. Relevant interaction variables were selected for the study, taking into account student achievement and analyzing data by means of association rules, a mining technique. The association rules were arrived at and filtered through two selection criteria: 1, rules must have an accuracy over 0.8 and 2, they must be present in both sub-samples. Results: The findings of our study highlight the influence of time management in online learning environments, particularly on academic achievement, as there is an association between procrastination variables and student performance. Conclusion: Negative impact of procrastination in learning outcomes has been observed again but in virtual learning environments where practical implications, prevention of, and intervention in, are different from class-based learning. These aspects are discussed to help resolve student difficulties at various ages.

Programmable logic controller implementation of an auto-tuned predictive control based on minimal plant information.

PubMed

Valencia-Palomo, G; Rossiter, J A

2011-01-01

This paper makes two key contributions. First, it tackles the issue of the availability of constrained predictive control for low-level control loops. Hence, it describes how the constrained control algorithm is embedded in an industrial programmable logic controller (PLC) using the IEC 61131-3 programming standard. Second, there is a definition and implementation of a novel auto-tuned predictive controller; the key novelty is that the modelling is based on relatively crude but pragmatic plant information. Laboratory experiment tests were carried out in two bench-scale laboratory systems to prove the effectiveness of the combined algorithm and hardware solution. For completeness, the results are compared with a commercial proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller (also embedded in the PLC) using the most up to date auto-tuning rules. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A PRIM approach to predictive-signature development for patient stratification.

PubMed

Chen, Gong; Zhong, Hua; Belousov, Anton; Devanarayan, Viswanath

2015-01-30

Patients often respond differently to a treatment because of individual heterogeneity. Failures of clinical trials can be substantially reduced if, prior to an investigational treatment, patients are stratified into responders and nonresponders based on biological or demographic characteristics. These characteristics are captured by a predictive signature. In this paper, we propose a procedure to search for predictive signatures based on the approach of patient rule induction method. Specifically, we discuss selection of a proper objective function for the search, present its algorithm, and describe a resampling scheme that can enhance search performance. Through simulations, we characterize conditions under which the procedure works well. To demonstrate practical uses of the procedure, we apply it to two real-world data sets. We also compare the results with those obtained from a recent regression-based approach, Adaptive Index Models, and discuss their respective advantages. In this study, we focus on oncology applications with survival responses. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wheel life prediction model - an alternative to the FASTSIM algorithm for RCF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossein-Nia, Saeed; Sichani, Matin Sh.; Stichel, Sebastian; Casanueva, Carlos

2018-07-01

In this article, a wheel life prediction model considering wear and rolling contact fatigue (RCF) is developed and applied to a heavy-haul locomotive. For wear calculations, a methodology based on Archard's wear calculation theory is used. The simulated wear depth is compared with profile measurements within 100,000 km. For RCF, a shakedown-based theory is applied locally, using the FaStrip algorithm to estimate the tangential stresses instead of FASTSIM. The differences between the two algorithms on damage prediction models are studied. The running distance between the two reprofiling due to RCF is estimated based on a Wöhler-like relationship developed from laboratory test results from the literature and the Palmgren-Miner rule. The simulated crack locations and their angles are compared with a five-year field study. Calculations to study the effects of electro-dynamic braking, track gauge, harder wheel material and the increase of axle load on the wheel life are also carried out.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

PubMed

Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

2015-01-01

The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

Analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensify change using data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jiang

Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This study aims to tackle two factors that account for the underperformance of current TC intensity forecasts: (1) inadequate observations of TC structures, and (2) deficient understanding of the underlying physical processes governing TC intensification. To tackle the problem of inadequate observations of TC structures, efforts have been made to extract vertical and horizontal structural parameters of latent heat release from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data products. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) was conducted first to explore the feasibility of using the 3D TC structure information in predicting TC intensification. Afterwards, several structural parameters were extracted from 53 TRMM PR 2A25 observations on 25 North Atlantic TCs during the period of 1998 to 2003. A new generation of multi-correlation data mining algorithm (Apriori and its variations) was applied to find roles of the latent heat release structure in TC intensification. The results showed that the buildup of TC energy is indicated by the height of the convective tower, and the relative low latent heat release at the core area and around the outer band. Adverse conditions which prevent TC intensification include the following: (1) TC entering a higher latitude area where the underlying sea is relative cold, (2) TC moving too fast to absorb the thermal energy from the underlying sea, or (3) strong energy loss at the outer band. When adverse conditions and amicable conditions reached equilibrium status, tropical cyclone intensity would remain stable. The dataset from Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) covering the period of 1982-2003 and the Apriori-based association rule mining algorithm were used to study the associations of underlying geophysical characteristics with the intensity change of tropical cyclones. The data have been stratified into 6 TC categories from tropical depression to category 4 hurricanes based on their strength. The result showed that the persistence of intensity change in the past and the strength of vertical shear in the environment are the most prevalent factors for all of the 6 TC categories. Hyper-edge searching had found 3 sets of parameters which showed strong intramural binds. Most of the parameters used in SHIPS model have a consistent "I-W" relation over different TC categories, indicating a consistent function of those parameters in TC development. However, the "I-W" relations of the relative momentum flux and the meridional motion change from tropical storm stage to hurricane stage, indicating a change in the role of those two parameters in TC development. Because rapid intensification (RI) is a major source of errors when predicting hurricane intensity, the association rule mining algorithm was performed on RI versus non-RI tropical cyclone cases using the same SHIPS dataset. The results had been compared with those from the traditional statistical analysis conducted by Kaplan and DeMaria (2003). The rapid intensification rule with 5 RI conditions proposed by the traditional statistical analysis was found by the association rule mining in this study as well. However, further analysis showed that the 5 RI conditions can be replaced by another association rule using fewer conditions but with a higher RI probability (RIP). This means that the rule with all 5 constraints found by Kaplan and DeMaria is not optimal, and the association rule mining technique can find a rule with fewer constraints yet fits more RI cases. The further analysis with the highest RIPs over different numbers of conditions has demonstrated that the interactions among multiple factors are responsible for the RI process of TCs. However, the influence of factors saturates at certain numbers. This study has shown successful data mining examples in studying tropical cyclone intensification using association rules. The higher RI probability with fewer conditions found by association rule technique is significant. This work demonstrated that data mining techniques can be used as an efficient exploration method to generate hypotheses, and that statistical analysis should be performed to confirm the hypotheses, as is generally expected for data mining applications.

On Decision-Making Among Multiple Rule-Bases in Fuzzy Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tunstel, Edward; Jamshidi, Mo

1997-01-01

Intelligent control of complex multi-variable systems can be a challenge for single fuzzy rule-based controllers. This class of problems cam often be managed with less difficulty by distributing intelligent decision-making amongst a collection of rule-bases. Such an approach requires that a mechanism be chosen to ensure goal-oriented interaction between the multiple rule-bases. In this paper, a hierarchical rule-based approach is described. Decision-making mechanisms based on generalized concepts from single-rule-based fuzzy control are described. Finally, the effects of different aggregation operators on multi-rule-base decision-making are examined in a navigation control problem for mobile robots.

Validation and subsequent development of the DEREK skin sensitization rulebase by analysis of the BgVV list of contact allergens.

PubMed

Barratt, M D; Langowski, J J

1999-01-01

The DEREK knowledge-based computer system contains a subset of approximately 50 rules describing chemical substructures (toxophores) responsible for skin sensitization. This rulebase, based originally on Unilever historical in-house guinea pig maximization test data, has been subject to extensive validation and is undergoing refinement as the next stage of its development. As part of an ongoing program of validation and testing, the predictive ability of the sensitization rule set has been assessed by processing the structures of the 84 chemical substances in the list of contact allergens issued by the BgVV (German Federal Institute for Health Protection of Consumers). This list of chemicals is important because the biological data for each of the chemicals have been carefully scrutinized and peer reviewed, a key consideration in an area of toxicology in which much unreliable and potentially misleading data have been published. The existing DEREK rulebase for skin sensitization identified toxophores for skin sensitization in the structures of 71 out of the 84 chemicals (85%). The exercise highlighted areas of chemistry where further development of the rulebase was required, either by extension of the scope of existing rules or by generation of new rules where a sound mechanistic rationale for the biological activity could be established. Chemicals likely to be acting as photoallergens were identified, and new rules for photoallergenicity have subsequently been written. At the end of the exercise, the refined rulebase was able to identify toxophores for skin sensitization for 82 of the 84 chemicals in the BgVV list.

Improving Predictions of Multiple Binary Models in ILP

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Despite the success of ILP systems in learning first-order rules from small number of examples and complexly structured data in various domains, they struggle in dealing with multiclass problems. In most cases they boil down a multiclass problem into multiple black-box binary problems following the one-versus-one or one-versus-rest binarisation techniques and learn a theory for each one. When evaluating the learned theories of multiple class problems in one-versus-rest paradigm particularly, there is a bias caused by the default rule toward the negative classes leading to an unrealistic high performance beside the lack of prediction integrity between the theories. Here we discuss the problem of using one-versus-rest binarisation technique when it comes to evaluating multiclass data and propose several methods to remedy this problem. We also illustrate the methods and highlight their link to binary tree and Formal Concept Analysis (FCA). Our methods allow learning of a simple, consistent, and reliable multiclass theory by combining the rules of the multiple one-versus-rest theories into one rule list or rule set theory. Empirical evaluation over a number of data sets shows that our proposed methods produce coherent and accurate rule models from the rules learned by the ILP system of Aleph. PMID:24696657

A detailed comparison of optimality and simplicity in perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Shen, Shan; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-01-01

Two prominent ideas in the study of decision-making have been that organisms behave near-optimally, and that they use simple heuristic rules. These principles might be operating in different types of tasks, but this possibility cannot be fully investigated without a direct, rigorous comparison within a single task. Such a comparison was lacking in most previous studies, because a) the optimal decision rule was simple; b) no simple suboptimal rules were considered; c) it was unclear what was optimal, or d) a simple rule could closely approximate the optimal rule. Here, we used a perceptual decision-making task in which the optimal decision rule is well-defined and complex, and makes qualitatively distinct predictions from many simple suboptimal rules. We find that all simple rules tested fail to describe human behavior, that the optimal rule accounts well for the data, and that several complex suboptimal rules are indistinguishable from the optimal one. Moreover, we found evidence that the optimal model is close to the true model: first, the better the trial-to-trial predictions of a suboptimal model agree with those of the optimal model, the better that suboptimal model fits; second, our estimate of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the optimal model and the true model is not significantly different from zero. When observers receive no feedback, the optimal model still describes behavior best, suggesting that sensory uncertainty is implicitly represented and taken into account. Beyond the task and models studied here, our results have implications for best practices of model comparison. PMID:27177259

[Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

PubMed

Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

2012-02-01

In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

CRAFFT: An Activity Prediction Model based on Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Nazerfard, Ehsan; Cook, Diane J.

2014-01-01

Recent advances in the areas of pervasive computing, data mining, and machine learning offer unique opportunities to provide health monitoring and assistance for individuals facing difficulties to live independently in their homes. Several components have to work together to provide health monitoring for smart home residents including, but not limited to, activity recognition, activity discovery, activity prediction, and prompting system. Compared to the significant research done to discover and recognize activities, less attention has been given to predict the future activities that the resident is likely to perform. Activity prediction components can play a major role in design of a smart home. For instance, by taking advantage of an activity prediction module, a smart home can learn context-aware rules to prompt individuals to initiate important activities. In this paper, we propose an activity prediction model using Bayesian networks together with a novel two-step inference process to predict both the next activity features and the next activity label. We also propose an approach to predict the start time of the next activity which is based on modeling the relative start time of the predicted activity using the continuous normal distribution and outlier detection. To validate our proposed models, we used real data collected from physical smart environments. PMID:25937847

CRAFFT: An Activity Prediction Model based on Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Nazerfard, Ehsan; Cook, Diane J

2015-04-01

Recent advances in the areas of pervasive computing, data mining, and machine learning offer unique opportunities to provide health monitoring and assistance for individuals facing difficulties to live independently in their homes. Several components have to work together to provide health monitoring for smart home residents including, but not limited to, activity recognition, activity discovery, activity prediction, and prompting system. Compared to the significant research done to discover and recognize activities, less attention has been given to predict the future activities that the resident is likely to perform. Activity prediction components can play a major role in design of a smart home. For instance, by taking advantage of an activity prediction module, a smart home can learn context-aware rules to prompt individuals to initiate important activities. In this paper, we propose an activity prediction model using Bayesian networks together with a novel two-step inference process to predict both the next activity features and the next activity label. We also propose an approach to predict the start time of the next activity which is based on modeling the relative start time of the predicted activity using the continuous normal distribution and outlier detection. To validate our proposed models, we used real data collected from physical smart environments.

Inference for multivariate regression model based on multiply imputed synthetic data generated via posterior predictive sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Ricardo; Sinha, Bimal; Coelho, Carlos A.

2017-06-01

The recent popularity of the use of synthetic data as a Statistical Disclosure Control technique has enabled the development of several methods of generating and analyzing such data, but almost always relying in asymptotic distributions and in consequence being not adequate for small sample datasets. Thus, a likelihood-based exact inference procedure is derived for the matrix of regression coefficients of the multivariate regression model, for multiply imputed synthetic data generated via Posterior Predictive Sampling. Since it is based in exact distributions this procedure may even be used in small sample datasets. Simulation studies compare the results obtained from the proposed exact inferential procedure with the results obtained from an adaptation of Reiters combination rule to multiply imputed synthetic datasets and an application to the 2000 Current Population Survey is discussed.

Complex Dynamics of Droplet Traffic in a Bifurcating Microfluidic Channel: Periodicity, Multistability, and Selection Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sessoms, D. A.; Amon, A.; Courbin, L.; Panizza, P.

2010-10-01

The binary path selection of droplets reaching a T junction is regulated by time-delayed feedback and nonlinear couplings. Such mechanisms result in complex dynamics of droplet partitioning: numerous discrete bifurcations between periodic regimes are observed. We introduce a model based on an approximation that makes this problem tractable. This allows us to derive analytical formulae that predict the occurrence of the bifurcations between consecutive regimes, establish selection rules for the period of a regime, and describe the evolutions of the period and complexity of droplet pattern in a cycle with the key parameters of the system. We discuss the validity and limitations of our model which describes semiquantitatively both numerical simulations and microfluidic experiments.

Estimating Snow Water Storage in North America Using CLM4, DART, and Snow Radiance Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Yonghwan; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhao, Long; Hoar, Timothy J.; Toure, Ally M.; Rodell, Matthew

2016-01-01

This paper addresses continental-scale snow estimates in North America using a recently developed snow radiance assimilation (RA) system. A series of RA experiments with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are conducted by assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperature T(sub B) at 18.7- and 36.5-GHz vertical polarization channels. The overall RA performance in estimating snow depth for North America is improved by simultaneously updating the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), snow/soil states and radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters involved in predicting T(sub B) based on their correlations with the prior T(sub B) (i.e., rule-based RA), although degradations are also observed. The RA system exhibits a more mixed performance for snow cover fraction estimates. Compared to the open-loop run (0.171m RMSE), the overall snow depth estimates are improved by 1.6% (0.168m RMSE) in the rule-based RA whereas the default RA (without a rule) results in a degradation of 3.6% (0.177mRMSE). Significant improvement of the snow depth estimates in the rule-based RA as observed for tundra snow class (11.5%, p < 0.05) and bare soil land-cover type (13.5%, p < 0.05). However, the overall improvement is not significant (p = 0.135) because snow estimates are degraded or marginally improved for other snow classes and land covers, especially the taiga snow class and forest land cover (7.1% and 7.3% degradations, respectively). The current RA system needs to be further refined to enhance snow estimates for various snow types and forested regions.

FRAT-up, a Web-based Fall-Risk Assessment Tool for Elderly People Living in the Community

PubMed Central

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

Background About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. Objective The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. Methods FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject’s fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. Results The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. Conclusions FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR). PMID:25693419

Individual Differences in Base Rate Neglect: A Fuzzy Processing Preference Index

PubMed Central

Wolfe, Christopher R.; Fisher, Christopher R.

2013-01-01

Little is known about individual differences in integrating numeric base-rates and qualitative text in making probability judgments. Fuzzy-Trace Theory predicts a preference for fuzzy processing. We conducted six studies to develop the FPPI, a reliable and valid instrument assessing individual differences in this fuzzy processing preference. It consists of 19 probability estimation items plus 4 "M-Scale" items that distinguish simple pattern matching from “base rate respect.” Cronbach's Alpha was consistently above 0.90. Validity is suggested by significant correlations between FPPI scores and three other measurers: "Rule Based" Process Dissociation Procedure scores; the number of conjunction fallacies in joint probability estimation; and logic index scores on syllogistic reasoning. Replicating norms collected in a university study with a web-based study produced negligible differences in FPPI scores, indicating robustness. The predicted relationships between individual differences in base rate respect and both conjunction fallacies and syllogistic reasoning were partially replicated in two web-based studies. PMID:23935255

Hamilton's rule and the causes of social evolution

PubMed Central

Bourke, Andrew F. G.

2014-01-01

Hamilton's rule is a central theorem of inclusive fitness (kin selection) theory and predicts that social behaviour evolves under specific combinations of relatedness, benefit and cost. This review provides evidence for Hamilton's rule by presenting novel syntheses of results from two kinds of study in diverse taxa, including cooperatively breeding birds and mammals and eusocial insects. These are, first, studies that empirically parametrize Hamilton's rule in natural populations and, second, comparative phylogenetic analyses of the genetic, life-history and ecological correlates of sociality. Studies parametrizing Hamilton's rule are not rare and demonstrate quantitatively that (i) altruism (net loss of direct fitness) occurs even when sociality is facultative, (ii) in most cases, altruism is under positive selection via indirect fitness benefits that exceed direct fitness costs and (iii) social behaviour commonly generates indirect benefits by enhancing the productivity or survivorship of kin. Comparative phylogenetic analyses show that cooperative breeding and eusociality are promoted by (i) high relatedness and monogamy and, potentially, by (ii) life-history factors facilitating family structure and high benefits of helping and (iii) ecological factors generating low costs of social behaviour. Overall, the focal studies strongly confirm the predictions of Hamilton's rule regarding conditions for social evolution and their causes. PMID:24686934

Hamilton's rule and the causes of social evolution.

PubMed

Bourke, Andrew F G

2014-05-19

Hamilton's rule is a central theorem of inclusive fitness (kin selection) theory and predicts that social behaviour evolves under specific combinations of relatedness, benefit and cost. This review provides evidence for Hamilton's rule by presenting novel syntheses of results from two kinds of study in diverse taxa, including cooperatively breeding birds and mammals and eusocial insects. These are, first, studies that empirically parametrize Hamilton's rule in natural populations and, second, comparative phylogenetic analyses of the genetic, life-history and ecological correlates of sociality. Studies parametrizing Hamilton's rule are not rare and demonstrate quantitatively that (i) altruism (net loss of direct fitness) occurs even when sociality is facultative, (ii) in most cases, altruism is under positive selection via indirect fitness benefits that exceed direct fitness costs and (iii) social behaviour commonly generates indirect benefits by enhancing the productivity or survivorship of kin. Comparative phylogenetic analyses show that cooperative breeding and eusociality are promoted by (i) high relatedness and monogamy and, potentially, by (ii) life-history factors facilitating family structure and high benefits of helping and (iii) ecological factors generating low costs of social behaviour. Overall, the focal studies strongly confirm the predictions of Hamilton's rule regarding conditions for social evolution and their causes.

Prediction of the Chloride Resistance of Concrete Modified with High Calcium Fly Ash Using Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Marks, Michał; Glinicki, Michał A.; Gibas, Karolina

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to generate rules for the prediction of the chloride resistance of concrete modified with high calcium fly ash using machine learning methods. The rapid chloride permeability test, according to the Nordtest Method Build 492, was used for determining the chloride ions’ penetration in concrete containing high calcium fly ash (HCFA) for partial replacement of Portland cement. The results of the performed tests were used as the training set to generate rules describing the relation between material composition and the chloride resistance. Multiple methods for rule generation were applied and compared. The rules generated by algorithm J48 from the Weka workbench provided the means for adequate classification of plain concretes and concretes modified with high calcium fly ash as materials of good, acceptable or unacceptable resistance to chloride penetration. PMID:28793740

110 Years of the Meyer–Overton Rule: Predicting Membrane Permeability of Gases and Other Small Compounds

PubMed Central

Missner, Andreas; Pohl, Peter

2010-01-01

The transport of gaseous compounds across biological membranes is essential in all forms of life. Although it was generally accepted that gases freely penetrate the lipid matrix of biological membranes, a number of studies challenged this doctrine as they found biological membranes to have extremely low gas-permeability values. These observations led to the identification of several membrane-embedded “gas” channels, which facilitate the transport of biological active gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitric oxide, and ammonia. However, some of these findings are in contrast to the well-established solubility–diffusion model (also known as the Meyer–Overton rule), which predicts membrane permeabilities from the molecule's oil–water partition coefficient. Herein, we discuss recently reported violations of the Meyer–Overton rule for small molecules, including carboxylic acids and gases, and show that Meyer and Overton continue to rule. PMID:19514034

FlexStem: improving predictions of RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots by reducing the search space.

PubMed

Chen, Xiang; He, Si-Min; Bu, Dongbo; Zhang, Fa; Wang, Zhiyong; Chen, Runsheng; Gao, Wen

2008-09-15

RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots are often predicted by minimizing free energy, which is proved to be NP-hard. Due to kinetic reasons the real RNA secondary structure often has local instead of global minimum free energy. This implies that we may improve the performance of RNA secondary structure prediction by taking kinetics into account and minimize free energy in a local area. we propose a novel algorithm named FlexStem to predict RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots. Still based on MFE criterion, FlexStem adopts comprehensive energy models that allow complex pseudoknots. Unlike classical thermodynamic methods, our approach aims to simulate the RNA folding process by successive addition of maximal stems, reducing the search space while maintaining or even improving the prediction accuracy. This reduced space is constructed by our maximal stem strategy and stem-adding rule induced from elaborate statistical experiments on real RNA secondary structures. The strategy and the rule also reflect the folding characteristic of RNA from a new angle and help compensate for the deficiency of merely relying on MFE in RNA structure prediction. We validate FlexStem by applying it to tRNAs, 5SrRNAs and a large number of pseudoknotted structures and compare it with the well-known algorithms such as RNAfold, PKNOTS, PknotsRG, HotKnots and ILM according to their overall sensitivities and specificities, as well as positive and negative controls on pseudoknots. The results show that FlexStem significantly increases the prediction accuracy through its local search strategy. Software is available at http://pfind.ict.ac.cn/FlexStem/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Multiple Kernel Learning with Random Effects for Predicting Longitudinal Outcomes and Data Integration

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2015-01-01

Summary Predicting disease risk and progression is one of the main goals in many clinical research studies. Cohort studies on the natural history and etiology of chronic diseases span years and data are collected at multiple visits. Although kernel-based statistical learning methods are proven to be powerful for a wide range of disease prediction problems, these methods are only well studied for independent data but not for longitudinal data. It is thus important to develop time-sensitive prediction rules that make use of the longitudinal nature of the data. In this paper, we develop a novel statistical learning method for longitudinal data by introducing subject-specific short-term and long-term latent effects through a designed kernel to account for within-subject correlation of longitudinal measurements. Since the presence of multiple sources of data is increasingly common, we embed our method in a multiple kernel learning framework and propose a regularized multiple kernel statistical learning with random effects to construct effective nonparametric prediction rules. Our method allows easy integration of various heterogeneous data sources and takes advantage of correlation among longitudinal measures to increase prediction power. We use different kernels for each data source taking advantage of the distinctive feature of each data modality, and then optimally combine data across modalities. We apply the developed methods to two large epidemiological studies, one on Huntington's disease and the other on Alzheimer's Disease (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, ADNI) where we explore a unique opportunity to combine imaging and genetic data to study prediction of mild cognitive impairment, and show a substantial gain in performance while accounting for the longitudinal aspect of the data. PMID:26177419

Prediction model for peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vathsala, H.; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we discuss a data mining application for predicting peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and propose an algorithm that combine data mining and statistical techniques. We select likely predictors based on association rules that have the highest confidence levels. We then cluster the selected predictors to reduce their dimensions and use cluster membership values for classification. We derive the predictors from local conditions in southern India, including mean sea level pressure, wind speed, and maximum and minimum temperatures. The global condition variables include southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole conditions. The algorithm predicts rainfall in five categories: Flood, Excess, Normal, Deficit and Drought. We use closed itemset mining, cluster membership calculations and a multilayer perceptron function in the algorithm to predict monsoon rainfall in peninsular India. Using Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology data, we found the prediction accuracy of our proposed approach to be exceptionally good.

The influence of work characteristics, emotional display rules and affectivity on burnout and job satisfaction: A survey among geriatric care workers.

PubMed

Rouxel, Géraldine; Michinov, Estelle; Dodeler, Virginie

2016-10-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that geriatric care employees are exposed to a large number of factors that can affect their levels of job satisfaction and occupational stress. Although working with elderly people is emotionally demanding, little research has been done on the role played by perceptions of emotional display rules, alongside more traditional work characteristics and individual factors, in the prediction of geriatric care employees' wellbeing. The aim of the present study was to examine the role played by work characteristics (job demands, job control, emotional display rules) and individual (affectivity) factors to predict job satisfaction and burnout among French geriatric care nurses. Questionnaires were sent to 891 employees working in 32 geriatric care centers in France. A total of 371 valid questionnaires (response rate: 41.60%) were analyzed using structural equation modeling techniques. Results revealed two main processes of burnout and job satisfaction among women geriatric care workers, namely a salutogenic process and a pathogenic process. As expected, negative affectivity, low job status, perceived negative display rules and job demands are involved in the pathogenic process; while positive affectivity, perceived positive display rules and job control are implied in the salutogenic one. More specifically, as expected, negative affectivity is a positive predictor of burnout, both directly and indirectly through its impact on perceived negative display rules and job demands. Moreover, negative affectivity was negatively related to job satisfaction. Simultaneously, positive affectivity can predict job satisfaction, both directly and indirectly through its impact on perceived positive display rules and job control. Positive affectivity is also a negative predictor of burnout. Practical implications are discussed to support intervention programs that develop healthy workplaces, and also to inform nurses about how to manage emotional display rules in retirement homes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety leadership at construction sites: the importance of rule-oriented and participative leadership.

PubMed

Grill, Martin; Pousette, Anders; Nielsen, Kent; Grytnes, Regine; Törner, Marianne

2017-07-01

Objectives The construction industry accounted for >20% of all fatal occupational accidents in Europe in 2014. Leadership is an essential antecedent to occupational safety. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented, participative, and laissez-faire leadership on safety climate, safety behavior, and accidents in the Swedish and Danish construction industry. Sweden and Denmark are similar countries but have a large difference in occupational accidents rates. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among a random sample of construction workers in both countries: 811 construction workers from 85 sites responded, resulting in site and individual response rates of 73% and 64%, respectively. Results The results indicated that transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented and participative leadership predict positive safety outcomes, and laissez-faire leadership predict negative safety outcomes. For example, rule-oriented leadership predicts a superior safety climate (β=0.40, P<0.001), enhanced safety behavior (β=0.15, P<0.001), and fewer accidents [odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.62-0.98]. The effect of rule-oriented leadership on workers' safety behavior was moderated by the level of participative leadership (β=0.10, P<0.001), suggesting that when rules and plans are established in a collaborative manner, workers' motivation to comply with safety regulations and participate in proactive safety activities is elevated. The influence of leadership behaviors on safety outcomes were largely similar in Sweden and Denmark. Rule-oriented and participative leadership were more common in the Swedish than Danish construction industry, which may partly explain the difference in occupational accident rates. Conclusions Applying less laissez-faire leadership and more transformational, active transactional, participative and rule-oriented leadership appears to be an effective way for construction site managers to improve occupational safety in the industry.

Towards application of rule learning to the meta-analysis of clinical data: an example of the metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Wojtusiak, Janusz; Michalski, Ryszard S; Simanivanh, Thipkesone; Baranova, Ancha V

2009-12-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analysis of published clinical datasets are important part of medical research. By combining results of multiple studies, meta-analysis is able to increase confidence in its conclusions, validate particular study results, and sometimes lead to new findings. Extensive theory has been built on how to aggregate results from multiple studies and arrive to the statistically valid conclusions. Surprisingly, very little has been done to adopt advanced machine learning methods to support meta-analysis. In this paper we describe a novel machine learning methodology that is capable of inducing accurate and easy to understand attributional rules from aggregated data. Thus, the methodology can be used to support traditional meta-analysis in systematic reviews. Most machine learning applications give primary attention to predictive accuracy of the learned knowledge, and lesser attention to its understandability. Here we employed attributional rules, the special form of rules that are relatively easy to interpret for medical experts who are not necessarily trained in statistics and meta-analysis. The methodology has been implemented and initially tested on a set of publicly available clinical data describing patients with metabolic syndrome (MS). The objective of this application was to determine rules describing combinations of clinical parameters used for metabolic syndrome diagnosis, and to develop rules for predicting whether particular patients are likely to develop secondary complications of MS. The aggregated clinical data was retrieved from 20 separate hospital cohorts that included 12 groups of patients with present liver disease symptoms and 8 control groups of healthy subjects. The total of 152 attributes were used, most of which were measured, however, in different studies. Twenty most common attributes were selected for the rule learning process. By applying the developed rule learning methodology we arrived at several different possible rulesets that can be used to predict three considered complications of MS, namely nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), simple steatosis (SS), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

Daily life activity routine discovery in hemiparetic rehabilitation patients using topic models.

PubMed

Seiter, J; Derungs, A; Schuster-Amft, C; Amft, O; Tröster, G

2015-01-01

Monitoring natural behavior and activity routines of hemiparetic rehabilitation patients across the day can provide valuable progress information for therapists and patients and contribute to an optimized rehabilitation process. In particular, continuous patient monitoring could add type, frequency and duration of daily life activity routines and hence complement standard clinical scores that are assessed for particular tasks only. Machine learning methods have been applied to infer activity routines from sensor data. However, supervised methods require activity annotations to build recognition models and thus require extensive patient supervision. Discovery methods, including topic models could provide patient routine information and deal with variability in activity and movement performance across patients. Topic models have been used to discover characteristic activity routine patterns of healthy individuals using activity primitives recognized from supervised sensor data. Yet, the applicability of topic models for hemiparetic rehabilitation patients and techniques to derive activity primitives without supervision needs to be addressed. We investigate, 1) whether a topic model-based activity routine discovery framework can infer activity routines of rehabilitation patients from wearable motion sensor data. 2) We compare the performance of our topic model-based activity routine discovery using rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary. We analyze the activity routine discovery in a dataset recorded with 11 hemiparetic rehabilitation patients during up to ten full recording days per individual in an ambulatory daycare rehabilitation center using wearable motion sensors attached to both wrists and the non-affected thigh. We introduce and compare rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary to process statistical and frequency acceleration features to activity words. Activity words were used for activity routine pattern discovery using topic models based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation. Discovered activity routine patterns were then mapped to six categorized activity routines. Using the rule-based approach, activity routines could be discovered with an average accuracy of 76% across all patients. The rule-based approach outperformed clustering by 10% and showed less confusions for predicted activity routines. Topic models are suitable to discover daily life activity routines in hemiparetic rehabilitation patients without trained classifiers and activity annotations. Activity routines show characteristic patterns regarding activity primitives including body and extremity postures and movement. A patient-independent rule set can be derived. Including expert knowledge supports successful activity routine discovery over completely data-driven clustering.

A Model of BGA Thermal Fatigue Life Prediction Considering Load Sequence Effects

PubMed Central

Hu, Weiwei; Li, Yaqiu; Sun, Yufeng; Mosleh, Ali

2016-01-01

Accurate testing history data is necessary for all fatigue life prediction approaches, but such data is always deficient especially for the microelectronic devices. Additionally, the sequence of the individual load cycle plays an important role in physical fatigue damage. However, most of the existing models based on the linear damage accumulation rule ignore the sequence effects. This paper proposes a thermal fatigue life prediction model for ball grid array (BGA) packages to take into consideration the load sequence effects. For the purpose of improving the availability and accessibility of testing data, a new failure criterion is discussed and verified by simulation and experimentation. The consequences for the fatigue underlying sequence load conditions are shown. PMID:28773980

Innate and genetic nature of circadian rhythms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehret, C.F.

1979-01-01

The field of Circadian Cybernetics is presented as a major new integrating discipline that deals with biological time constants in the temporal range from minutes to days. The essential generalizations that give the field strong predictive power are presented in the form of 3 sets of rules: (1) The Mode Rules; (2) The Period Rules; and (3) The Phase Rules. Within this context the innate and phylogenetically ubiquitous nature of circadian oscillations is comprehended, along with their responses to a wide variety environmental stimuli.

Feasibility study: refinement of the TTC concept by additional rules based on in silico and experimental data.

PubMed

Hauge-Nilsen, Kristin; Keller, Detlef

2015-01-01

Starting from a single generic limit value, the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) concept has been further developed over the years, e.g., by including differentiated structural classes according to the rules of Cramer et al. (Food Chem Toxicol 16: 255-276, 1978). In practice, the refined TTC concept of Munro et al. (Food Chem Toxicol 34: 829-867, 1996) is often applied. The purpose of this work was to explore the possibility of refining the concept by introducing additional structure-activity relationships and available toxicity data. Computer modeling was performed using the OECD Toolbox. No observed (adverse) effect level (NO(A)EL) data of 176 substances were collected in a basic data set. New subgroups were created applying the following criteria: extended Cramer rules, low bioavailability, low acute toxicity, no protein binding affinity, and consideration of predicted liver metabolism. The highest TTC limit value of 236 µg/kg/day was determined for a subgroup that combined the criteria "no protein binding affinity" and "predicted liver metabolism." This value was approximately eight times higher than the original Cramer class 1 limit value of 30 µg/kg/day. The results of this feasibility study indicate that inclusion of the proposed criteria may lead to improved TTC values. Thereby, the applicability of the TTC concept in risk assessment could be extended which could reduce the need to perform animal tests.

Mathematical programming models for the economic design and assessment of wind energy conversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinert, K. A.

The use of linear decision rules (LDR) and chance constrained programming (CCP) to optimize the performance of wind energy conversion clusters coupled to storage systems is described. Storage is modelled by LDR and output by CCP. The linear allocation rule and linear release rule prescribe the size and optimize a storage facility with a bypass. Chance constraints are introduced to explicitly treat reliability in terms of an appropriate value from an inverse cumulative distribution function. Details of deterministic programming structure and a sample problem involving a 500 kW and a 1.5 MW WECS are provided, considering an installed cost of $1/kW. Four demand patterns and three levels of reliability are analyzed for optimizing the generator choice and the storage configuration for base load and peak operating conditions. Deficiencies in ability to predict reliability and to account for serial correlations are noted in the model, which is concluded useful for narrowing WECS design options.

Finding Influential Users in Social Media Using Association Rule Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlandsson, Fredrik; Bródka, Piotr; Borg, Anton; Johnson, Henric

2016-04-01

Influential users play an important role in online social networks since users tend to have an impact on one other. Therefore, the proposed work analyzes users and their behavior in order to identify influential users and predict user participation. Normally, the success of a social media site is dependent on the activity level of the participating users. For both online social networking sites and individual users, it is of interest to find out if a topic will be interesting or not. In this article, we propose association learning to detect relationships between users. In order to verify the findings, several experiments were executed based on social network analysis, in which the most influential users identified from association rule learning were compared to the results from Degree Centrality and Page Rank Centrality. The results clearly indicate that it is possible to identify the most influential users using association rule learning. In addition, the results also indicate a lower execution time compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Consumer Search, Rationing Rules, and the Consequence for Competition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruebeck, Christopher S.

Firms' conjectures about demand are consequential in oligopoly games. Through agent-based modeling of consumers' search for products, we can study the rationing of demand between capacity-constrained firms offering homogeneous products and explore the robustness of analytically solvable models' results. After algorithmically formalizing short-run search behavior rather than assuming a long-run average, this study predicts stronger competition in a two-stage capacity-price game.

Effect of cephalometer misalignment on calculations of facial asymmetry.

PubMed

Lee, Ki-Heon; Hwang, Hyeon-Shik; Curry, Sean; Boyd, Robert L; Norris, Kevin; Baumrind, Sheldon

2007-07-01

In this study, we evaluated errors introduced into the interpretation of facial asymmetry on posteroanterior (PA) cephalograms due to malpositioning of the x-ray emitter focal spot. We tested the hypothesis that horizontal displacements of the emitter from its ideal position would produce systematic displacements of skull landmarks that could be fully accounted for by the rules of projective geometry alone. A representative dry skull with 22 metal markers was used to generate a series of PA images from different emitter positions by using a fully calibrated stereo cephalometer. Empirical measurements of the resulting cephalograms were compared with mathematical predictions based solely on geometric rules. The empirical measurements matched the mathematical predictions within the limits of measurement error (x= 0.23 mm), thus supporting the hypothesis. Based upon this finding, we generated a completely symmetrical mathematical skull and calculated the expected errors for focal spots of several different magnitudes. Quantitative data were computed for focal spot displacements of different magnitudes. Misalignment of the x-ray emitter focal spot introduces systematic errors into the interpretation of facial asymmetry on PA cephalograms. For misalignments of less than 20 mm, the effect is small in individual cases. However, misalignments as small as 10 mm can introduce spurious statistical findings of significant asymmetry when mean values for large groups of PA images are evaluated.

An Integrative Platform of TCM Network Pharmacology and Its Application on a Herbal Formula, Qing-Luo-Yin

PubMed Central

Zhang, Bo; Wang, Xu; Li, Shao

2013-01-01

The scientific understanding of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been hindered by the lack of methods that can explore the complex nature and combinatorial rules of herbal formulae. On the assumption that herbal ingredients mainly target a molecular network to adjust the imbalance of human body, here we present a-self-developed TCM network pharmacology platform for discovering herbal formulae in a systematic manner. This platform integrates a set of network-based methods that we established previously to catch the network regulation mechanism and to identify active ingredients as well as synergistic combinations for a given herbal formula. We then provided a case study on an antirheumatoid arthritis (RA) formula, Qing-Luo-Yin (QLY), to demonstrate the usability of the platform. We revealed the target network of QLY against RA-related key processes including angiogenesis, inflammatory response, and immune response, based on which we not only predicted active and synergistic ingredients from QLY but also interpreted the combinatorial rule of this formula. These findings are either verified by the literature evidence or have the potential to guide further experiments. Therefore, such a network pharmacology strategy and platform is expected to make the systematical study of herbal formulae achievable and to make the TCM drug discovery predictable. PMID:23653662

RuleMonkey: software for stochastic simulation of rule-based models

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The system-level dynamics of many molecular interactions, particularly protein-protein interactions, can be conveniently represented using reaction rules, which can be specified using model-specification languages, such as the BioNetGen language (BNGL). A set of rules implicitly defines a (bio)chemical reaction network. The reaction network implied by a set of rules is often very large, and as a result, generation of the network implied by rules tends to be computationally expensive. Moreover, the cost of many commonly used methods for simulating network dynamics is a function of network size. Together these factors have limited application of the rule-based modeling approach. Recently, several methods for simulating rule-based models have been developed that avoid the expensive step of network generation. The cost of these "network-free" simulation methods is independent of the number of reactions implied by rules. Software implementing such methods is now needed for the simulation and analysis of rule-based models of biochemical systems. Results Here, we present a software tool called RuleMonkey, which implements a network-free method for simulation of rule-based models that is similar to Gillespie's method. The method is suitable for rule-based models that can be encoded in BNGL, including models with rules that have global application conditions, such as rules for intramolecular association reactions. In addition, the method is rejection free, unlike other network-free methods that introduce null events, i.e., steps in the simulation procedure that do not change the state of the reaction system being simulated. We verify that RuleMonkey produces correct simulation results, and we compare its performance against DYNSTOC, another BNGL-compliant tool for network-free simulation of rule-based models. We also compare RuleMonkey against problem-specific codes implementing network-free simulation methods. Conclusions RuleMonkey enables the simulation of rule-based models for which the underlying reaction networks are large. It is typically faster than DYNSTOC for benchmark problems that we have examined. RuleMonkey is freely available as a stand-alone application http://public.tgen.org/rulemonkey. It is also available as a simulation engine within GetBonNie, a web-based environment for building, analyzing and sharing rule-based models. PMID:20673321

Early lactate clearance for predicting active bleeding in critically ill patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Wada, Tomoki; Hagiwara, Akiyoshi; Uemura, Tatsuki; Yahagi, Naoki; Kimura, Akio

2016-08-01

Not all patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) require emergency endoscopy. Lactate clearance has been suggested as a parameter for predicting patient outcomes in various critical care settings. This study investigates whether lactate clearance can predict active bleeding in critically ill patients with UGIB. This single-center, retrospective, observational study included critically ill patients with UGIB who met all of the following criteria: admission to the emergency department (ED) from April 2011 to August 2014; had blood samples for lactate evaluation at least twice during the ED stay; and had emergency endoscopy within 6 h of ED presentation. The main outcome was active bleeding detected with emergency endoscopy. Classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were performed using variables associated with active bleeding to derive a prediction rule for active bleeding in critically ill UGIB patients. A total of 154 patients with UGIB were analyzed, and 31.2 % (48/154) had active bleeding. In the univariate analysis, lactate clearance was significantly lower in patients with active bleeding than in those without active bleeding (13 vs. 29 %, P < 0.001). Using the CART analysis, a prediction rule for active bleeding is derived, and includes three variables: lactate clearance; platelet count; and systolic blood pressure at ED presentation. The rule has 97.9 % (95 % CI 90.2-99.6 %) sensitivity with 32.1 % (28.6-32.9 %) specificity. Lactate clearance may be associated with active bleeding in critically ill patients with UGIB, and may be clinically useful as a component of a prediction rule for active bleeding.

Prediction of poor outcomes six months following total knee arthroplasty in patients awaiting surgery.

PubMed

Lungu, Eugen; Desmeules, François; Dionne, Clermont E; Belzile, Etienne L; Vendittoli, Pascal-André

2014-09-08

Identification of patients experiencing poor outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) before the intervention could allow better case selection, patient preparation and, likely, improved outcomes. The objective was to develop a preliminary prediction rule (PR) to identify patients enrolled on surgical wait lists who are at the greatest risk of poor outcomes 6 months after TKA. 141 patients scheduled for TKA were recruited prospectively from the wait lists of 3 hospitals in Quebec City, Canada. Knee pain, stiffness and function were measured 6 months after TKA with the Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and participants in the lowest quintile for the WOMAC total score were considered to have a poor outcome. Several variables measured at enrolment on the wait lists (baseline) were considered potential predictors: demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and clinical factors including pain, stiffness and functional status measured with the WOMAC. The prediction rule was built with recursive partitioning. The best prediction was provided by 5 items of the baseline WOMAC. The rule had a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI: 66.7-95.8), a specificity of 71.7% (95% CI: 62.8-79.8), a positive predictive value of 41.8% (95% CI: 29.7-55.0), a negative predictive value of 94.2% (95% CI: 87.1-97.5) and positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.8-4.7) and 0.3 (95% CI: 0.1-0.6) respectively. The developed PR is a promising tool to identify patients at risk of worse outcomes 6 months after TKA as it could help improve the management of these patients. Further validation of this rule is however warranted before clinical use.

Simulated effect of pneumococcal vaccination in the Netherlands on existing rules constructed in a non-vaccinated cohort predicting sequelae after bacterial meningitis

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Previously two prediction rules identifying children at risk of hearing loss and academic or behavioral limitations after bacterial meningitis were developed. Streptococcus pneumoniae as causative pathogen was an important risk factor in both. Since 2006 Dutch children receive seven-valent conjugate vaccination against S. pneumoniae. The presumed effect of vaccination was simulated by excluding all children infected by S. pneumoniae with the serotypes included in the vaccine, from both previous collected cohorts (between 1990-1995). Methods Children infected by one of the vaccine serotypes were excluded from both original cohorts (hearing loss: 70 of 628 children; academic or behavioral limitations: 26 of 182 children). All identified risk factors were included in multivariate logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of both new models was calculated. Results The same risk factors as in the original models were significant. The discriminative ability of the original hearing loss model was 0.84 and of the new model 0.87. In the academic or behavioral limitations model it was 0.83 and 0.84 respectively. Conclusion It can be assumed that the prediction rules will also be applicable on a vaccinated population. However, vaccination does not provide 100% coverage and evidence is available that serotype replacement will occur. The impact of vaccination on serotype replacement needs to be investigated, and the prediction rules must be validated externally. PMID:20815866

Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

1996-01-01

The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field intensity, and mean geomagnetic dipole power excursion and axial dipole reversal frequencies. We conclude that McLeod's Rule helps unify geo-paleomagnetism, correctly relates theoretically predictable statistical properties of the core geodynamo to magnetic observation, and provides a priori information required for stochastic inversion of paleo-, archeo-, and/or historical geomagnetic measurements.

Predicting missing values in a home care database using an adaptive uncertainty rule method.

PubMed

Konias, S; Gogou, G; Bamidis, P D; Vlahavas, I; Maglaveras, N

2005-01-01

Contemporary literature illustrates an abundance of adaptive algorithms for mining association rules. However, most literature is unable to deal with the peculiarities, such as missing values and dynamic data creation, that are frequently encountered in fields like medicine. This paper proposes an uncertainty rule method that uses an adaptive threshold for filling missing values in newly added records. A new approach for mining uncertainty rules and filling missing values is proposed, which is in turn particularly suitable for dynamic databases, like the ones used in home care systems. In this study, a new data mining method named FiMV (Filling Missing Values) is illustrated based on the mined uncertainty rules. Uncertainty rules have quite a similar structure to association rules and are extracted by an algorithm proposed in previous work, namely AURG (Adaptive Uncertainty Rule Generation). The main target was to implement an appropriate method for recovering missing values in a dynamic database, where new records are continuously added, without needing to specify any kind of thresholds beforehand. The method was applied to a home care monitoring system database. Randomly, multiple missing values for each record's attributes (rate 5-20% by 5% increments) were introduced in the initial dataset. FiMV demonstrated 100% completion rates with over 90% success in each case, while usual approaches, where all records with missing values are ignored or thresholds are required, experienced significantly reduced completion and success rates. It is concluded that the proposed method is appropriate for the data-cleaning step of the Knowledge Discovery process in databases. The latter, containing much significance for the output efficiency of any data mining technique, can improve the quality of the mined information.

Towards the prediction of essential genes by integration of network topology, cellular localization and biological process information

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The identification of essential genes is important for the understanding of the minimal requirements for cellular life and for practical purposes, such as drug design. However, the experimental techniques for essential genes discovery are labor-intensive and time-consuming. Considering these experimental constraints, a computational approach capable of accurately predicting essential genes would be of great value. We therefore present here a machine learning-based computational approach relying on network topological features, cellular localization and biological process information for prediction of essential genes. Results We constructed a decision tree-based meta-classifier and trained it on datasets with individual and grouped attributes-network topological features, cellular compartments and biological processes-to generate various predictors of essential genes. We showed that the predictors with better performances are those generated by datasets with integrated attributes. Using the predictor with all attributes, i.e., network topological features, cellular compartments and biological processes, we obtained the best predictor of essential genes that was then used to classify yeast genes with unknown essentiality status. Finally, we generated decision trees by training the J48 algorithm on datasets with all network topological features, cellular localization and biological process information to discover cellular rules for essentiality. We found that the number of protein physical interactions, the nuclear localization of proteins and the number of regulating transcription factors are the most important factors determining gene essentiality. Conclusion We were able to demonstrate that network topological features, cellular localization and biological process information are reliable predictors of essential genes. Moreover, by constructing decision trees based on these data, we could discover cellular rules governing essentiality. PMID:19758426

Evaluation of IOTA Simple Ultrasound Rules to Distinguish Benign and Malignant Ovarian Tumours

PubMed Central

Kaur, Amarjit; Mohi, Jaswinder Kaur; Sibia, Preet Kanwal; Kaur, Navkiran

2017-01-01

Introduction IOTA stands for International Ovarian Tumour Analysis group. Ovarian cancer is one of the common cancers in women and is diagnosed at later stage in majority. The limiting factor for early diagnosis is lack of standardized terms and procedures in gynaecological sonography. Introduction of IOTA rules has provided some consistency in defining morphological features of ovarian masses through a standardized examination technique. Aim To evaluate the efficacy of IOTA simple ultrasound rules in distinguishing benign and malignant ovarian tumours and establishing their use as a tool in early diagnosis of ovarian malignancy. Materials and Methods A hospital based case control prospective study was conducted. Patients with suspected ovarian pathology were evaluated using IOTA ultrasound rules and designated as benign or malignant. Findings were correlated with histopathological findings. Collected data was statistically analysed using chi-square test and kappa statistical method. Results Out of initial 55 patients, 50 patients were included in the final analysis who underwent surgery. IOTA simple rules were applicable in 45 out of these 50 patients (90%). The sensitivity for the detection of malignancy in cases where IOTA simple rules were applicable was 91.66% and the specificity was 84.84%. Accuracy was 86.66%. Classifying inconclusive cases as malignant, the sensitivity and specificity was 93% and 80% respectively. High level of agreement was found between USG and histopathological diagnosis with Kappa value as 0.323. Conclusion IOTA simple ultrasound rules were highly sensitive and specific in predicting ovarian malignancy preoperatively yet being reproducible, easy to train and use. PMID:28969237

Cost-effectiveness of the PECARN rules in children with minor head trauma.

PubMed

Nishijima, Daniel K; Yang, Zhuo; Urbich, Michael; Holmes, James F; Zwienenberg-Lee, Marike; Melnikow, Joy; Kuppermann, Nathan

2015-01-01

To improve the efficiency and appropriateness of computed tomography (CT) use in children with minor head trauma, clinical prediction rules were derived and validated by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules to usual care for selective CT use. We used decision analytic modeling to project the outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of applying the PECARN rules compared with usual care in a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 children with minor blunt head trauma. Clinical management was directed by level of risk as specified by the presence or absence of variables in the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules. Immediate costs of care (diagnostic testing, treatment [not including clinician time], and hospital stay) were derived on single-center data. Quality-adjusted life-year losses related to the sequelae of clinically important traumatic brain injuries and to radiation-induced cancers, number of CT scans, number of radiation-induced cancers, number of missed clinically important traumatic brain injury, and total costs were evaluated. Compared with the usual care strategy, the PECARN strategy was projected to miss slightly more children with clinically important traumatic brain injuries (0.26 versus 0.02 per 1,000 children) but used fewer cranial CT scans (274 versus 353), resulted in fewer radiation-induced cancers (0.34 versus 0.45), cost less ($904,940 versus $954,420), and had lower net quality-adjusted life-year loss (-4.64 versus -5.79). Because the PECARN strategy was more effective (less quality-adjusted life-year loss) and less costly, it dominated the usual care strategy. Results were robust under sensitivity analyses. Application of the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules for children with minor head trauma would lead to beneficial outcomes and more cost-effective care. Copyright © 2014 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of decision rules for identifying low bone density in postmenopausal African-American women.

PubMed Central

Wallace, Lorraine Silver; Ballard, Joyce E.; Holiday, David; Turner, Lori W.; Keenum, Amy J.; Pearman, Cynthia M.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: While African-American women tend to have greater bone mineral density (BMD) than caucasian women, they are still at risk of developing osteoporosis later in life. Clinical decision rules (i.e., algorithms) have been developed to assist clinicians identify women at greatest risk of low BMD. However, such tools have only been validated in caucasian and Asian populations. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to compare the performance of five clinical decision rules in identifying postmenopausal African-American women at greatest risk for low femoral BMD. METHODOLOGY: One hundred-seventy-four (n=174) postmenopausal African-American women completed a valid and reliable oral questionnaire to assess lifestyle characteristics, and completed height and weight measures. BMD at the femoral neck was measured via dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for identifying African-American women with low BMD (T-Score < or = -2.0 SD) using five clinical decision rules: Age, Body Size, No Estrogen (ABONE), Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE), and body weight less than 70 kg. RESULTS: Approximately 30% of African-American women had low BMD, half of whom had osteoporosis (BMD T-Score < or = -2.5 SD). Sensitivity for identifying women with a low BMD (T-Score < or = -2.0 SD) ranged from 65.57-83.61%, while specificity ranged from 53.85-78.85%. Positive predictive values ranged from 80.95-87.91%, while negative predictive values ranged from 48.44-58.33%. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the clinical decision rules analyzed in this study have some usefulness for identifying postmenopausal African-American women with low BMD. However, there is a need to establish cut-points for these clinical decision rules in a larger, more diverse sample of African-American women. PMID:15040510

The value of EHR-based assessment of physician competency: An investigative effort with internal medicine physicians.

PubMed

Venta, Kimberly; Baker, Erin; Fidopiastis, Cali; Stanney, Kay

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential of developing an EHR-based model of physician competency, named the Skill Deficiency Evaluation Toolkit for Eliminating Competency-loss Trends (Skill-DETECT), which presents the opportunity to use EHR-based models to inform selection of Continued Medical Education (CME) opportunities specifically targeted at maintaining proficiency. The IBM Explorys platform provided outpatient Electronic Health Records (EHRs) representing 76 physicians with over 5000 patients combined. These data were used to develop the Skill-DETECT model, a predictive hybrid model composed of a rule-based model, logistic regression model, and a thresholding model, which predicts cognitive clinical skill deficiencies in internal medicine physicians. A three-phase approach was then used to statistically validate the model performance. Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel reviews resulted in a 100% overall approval rate of the rule based model. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves calculated for each logistic regression curve resulted in values between 0.76 and 0.92, which indicated exceptional performance. Normality, skewness, and kurtosis were determined and confirmed that the distribution of values output from the thresholding model were unimodal and peaked, which confirmed effectiveness and generalizability. The validation has confirmed that the Skill-DETECT model has a strong ability to evaluate EHR data and support the identification of internal medicine cognitive clinical skills that are deficient or are of higher likelihood of becoming deficient and thus require remediation, which will allow both physician and medical organizations to fine tune training efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of Remotely-Sensed Snow information to improve streamflow predictions in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Burgos, V.; Rajagopal, S.; Martinez Baquero, G. F.; Gupta, H. V.

2009-12-01

Rapidly growing population in the southwestern US is leading to increasing demand and decreasing availability of water, requiring a detailed quantification of hydrological processes. The integration of detailed spatial information of water fluxes from remote sensing platforms, and hydrological models coupled with ground based data is an important step towards this goal. This project is exploring the use of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimates to update the snow component of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). SWE estimates are obtained by combining SNOTEL data with MODIS Snow Cover Area (SCA) information. Because, cloud cover corrupts the estimates of SCA, a rule-based method is used to clean up the remotely sensed images. The rules include a time interpolation method, and the probability of a pixel for been covered with snow based on the relationships between elevation, temperature, lapse rate, aspect and topographic shading. The approach is used to improve streamflow predictions on two rivers managed by the Salt River Project, a water and energy supplier in central Arizona. This solution will help improve the management of reservoirs in the Salt and Verde River in Phoenix, Arizona (tributaries of the lower Colorado River basin), by incorporating physically based distributed models and remote sensing observations into their Decision Support Tools and planning tools. This research seeks to increase the knowledge base used to manage reservoirs and groundwater resources in a region affected by a long-term drought. It will be applicable and relevant for other water utility companies facing the challenges of climate change and decreasing water resources.

Simulation-based model checking approach to cell fate specification during Caenorhabditis elegans vulval development by hybrid functional Petri net with extension.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Nagasaki, Masao; Ueno, Kazuko; Miyano, Satoru

2009-04-27

Model checking approaches were applied to biological pathway validations around 2003. Recently, Fisher et al. have proved the importance of model checking approach by inferring new regulation of signaling crosstalk in C. elegans and confirming the regulation with biological experiments. They took a discrete and state-based approach to explore all possible states of the system underlying vulval precursor cell (VPC) fate specification for desired properties. However, since both discrete and continuous features appear to be an indispensable part of biological processes, it is more appropriate to use quantitative models to capture the dynamics of biological systems. Our key motivation of this paper is to establish a quantitative methodology to model and analyze in silico models incorporating the use of model checking approach. A novel method of modeling and simulating biological systems with the use of model checking approach is proposed based on hybrid functional Petri net with extension (HFPNe) as the framework dealing with both discrete and continuous events. Firstly, we construct a quantitative VPC fate model with 1761 components by using HFPNe. Secondly, we employ two major biological fate determination rules - Rule I and Rule II - to VPC fate model. We then conduct 10,000 simulations for each of 48 sets of different genotypes, investigate variations of cell fate patterns under each genotype, and validate the two rules by comparing three simulation targets consisting of fate patterns obtained from in silico and in vivo experiments. In particular, an evaluation was successfully done by using our VPC fate model to investigate one target derived from biological experiments involving hybrid lineage observations. However, the understandings of hybrid lineages are hard to make on a discrete model because the hybrid lineage occurs when the system comes close to certain thresholds as discussed by Sternberg and Horvitz in 1986. Our simulation results suggest that: Rule I that cannot be applied with qualitative based model checking, is more reasonable than Rule II owing to the high coverage of predicted fate patterns (except for the genotype of lin-15ko; lin-12ko double mutants). More insights are also suggested. The quantitative simulation-based model checking approach is a useful means to provide us valuable biological insights and better understandings of biological systems and observation data that may be hard to capture with the qualitative one.

How Many Wolves (Canis lupus) Fit into Germany? The Role of Assumptions in Predictive Rule-Based Habitat Models for Habitat Generalists

PubMed Central

Fechter, Dominik; Storch, Ilse

2014-01-01

Due to legislative protection, many species, including large carnivores, are currently recolonizing Europe. To address the impending human-wildlife conflicts in advance, predictive habitat models can be used to determine potentially suitable habitat and areas likely to be recolonized. As field data are often limited, quantitative rule based models or the extrapolation of results from other studies are often the techniques of choice. Using the wolf (Canis lupus) in Germany as a model for habitat generalists, we developed a habitat model based on the location and extent of twelve existing wolf home ranges in Eastern Germany, current knowledge on wolf biology, different habitat modeling techniques and various input data to analyze ten different input parameter sets and address the following questions: (1) How do a priori assumptions and different input data or habitat modeling techniques affect the abundance and distribution of potentially suitable wolf habitat and the number of wolf packs in Germany? (2) In a synthesis across input parameter sets, what areas are predicted to be most suitable? (3) Are existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany consistent with current knowledge on wolf biology and habitat relationships? Our results indicate that depending on which assumptions on habitat relationships are applied in the model and which modeling techniques are chosen, the amount of potentially suitable habitat estimated varies greatly. Depending on a priori assumptions, Germany could accommodate between 154 and 1769 wolf packs. The locations of the existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany indicate that wolves are able to adapt to areas densely populated by humans, but are limited to areas with low road densities. Our analysis suggests that predictive habitat maps in general, should be interpreted with caution and illustrates the risk for habitat modelers to concentrate on only one selection of habitat factors or modeling technique. PMID:25029506

Novel application of species richness estimators to predict the host range of parasites.

PubMed

Watson, David M; Milner, Kirsty V; Leigh, Andrea

2017-01-01

Host range is a critical life history trait of parasites, influencing prevalence, virulence and ultimately determining their distributional extent. Current approaches to measure host range are sensitive to sampling effort, the number of known hosts increasing with more records. Here, we develop a novel application of results-based stopping rules to determine how many hosts should be sampled to yield stable estimates of the number of primary hosts within regions, then use species richness estimation to predict host ranges of parasites across their distributional ranges. We selected three mistletoe species (hemiparasitic plants in the Loranthaceae) to evaluate our approach: a strict host specialist (Amyema lucasii, dependent on a single host species), an intermediate species (Amyema quandang, dependent on hosts in one genus) and a generalist (Lysiana exocarpi, dependent on many genera across multiple families), comparing results from geographically-stratified surveys against known host lists derived from herbarium specimens. The results-based stopping rule (stop sampling bioregion once observed host richness exceeds 80% of the host richness predicted using the Abundance-based Coverage Estimator) worked well for most bioregions studied, being satisfied after three to six sampling plots (each representing 25 host trees) but was unreliable in those bioregions with high host richness or high proportions of rare hosts. Although generating stable predictions of host range with minimal variation among six estimators trialled, distribution-wide estimates fell well short of the number of hosts known from herbarium records. This mismatch, coupled with the discovery of nine previously unrecorded mistletoe-host combinations, further demonstrates the limited ecological relevance of simple host-parasite lists. By collecting estimates of host range of constrained completeness, our approach maximises sampling efficiency while generating comparable estimates of the number of primary hosts, with broad applicability to many host-parasite systems. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High solar activity predictions through an artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orozco-Del-Castillo, M. G.; Ortiz-Alemán, J. C.; Couder-Castañeda, C.; Hernández-Gómez, J. J.; Solís-Santomé, A.

The effects of high-energy particles coming from the Sun on human health as well as in the integrity of outer space electronics make the prediction of periods of high solar activity (HSA) a task of significant importance. Since periodicities in solar indexes have been identified, long-term predictions can be achieved. In this paper, we present a method based on an artificial neural network to find a pattern in some harmonics which represent such periodicities. We used data from 1973 to 2010 to train the neural network, and different historical data for its validation. We also used the neural network along with a statistical analysis of its performance with known data to predict periods of HSA with different confidence intervals according to the three-sigma rule associated with solar cycles 24-26, which we found to occur before 2040.

Proactive Supply Chain Performance Management with Predictive Analytics

PubMed Central

Stefanovic, Nenad

2014-01-01

Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment. PMID:25386605

Advancing viral RNA structure prediction: measuring the thermodynamics of pyrimidine-rich internal loops

PubMed Central

Phan, Andy; Mailey, Katherine; Saeki, Jessica; Gu, Xiaobo

2017-01-01

Accurate thermodynamic parameters improve RNA structure predictions and thus accelerate understanding of RNA function and the identification of RNA drug binding sites. Many viral RNA structures, such as internal ribosome entry sites, have internal loops and bulges that are potential drug target sites. Current models used to predict internal loops are biased toward small, symmetric purine loops, and thus poorly predict asymmetric, pyrimidine-rich loops with >6 nucleotides (nt) that occur frequently in viral RNA. This article presents new thermodynamic data for 40 pyrimidine loops, many of which can form UU or protonated CC base pairs. Uracil and protonated cytosine base pairs stabilize asymmetric internal loops. Accurate prediction rules are presented that account for all thermodynamic measurements of RNA asymmetric internal loops. New loop initiation terms for loops with >6 nt are presented that do not follow previous assumptions that increasing asymmetry destabilizes loops. Since the last 2004 update, 126 new loops with asymmetry or sizes greater than 2 × 2 have been measured. These new measurements significantly deepen and diversify the thermodynamic database for RNA. These results will help better predict internal loops that are larger, pyrimidine-rich, and occur within viral structures such as internal ribosome entry sites. PMID:28213527

Proactive supply chain performance management with predictive analytics.

PubMed

Stefanovic, Nenad

2014-01-01

Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment.

Automatic evidence quality prediction to support evidence-based decision making.

PubMed

Sarker, Abeed; Mollá, Diego; Paris, Cécile

2015-06-01

Evidence-based medicine practice requires practitioners to obtain the best available medical evidence, and appraise the quality of the evidence when making clinical decisions. Primarily due to the plethora of electronically available data from the medical literature, the manual appraisal of the quality of evidence is a time-consuming process. We present a fully automatic approach for predicting the quality of medical evidence in order to aid practitioners at point-of-care. Our approach extracts relevant information from medical article abstracts and utilises data from a specialised corpus to apply supervised machine learning for the prediction of the quality grades. Following an in-depth analysis of the usefulness of features (e.g., publication types of articles), they are extracted from the text via rule-based approaches and from the meta-data associated with the articles, and then applied in the supervised classification model. We propose the use of a highly scalable and portable approach using a sequence of high precision classifiers, and introduce a simple evaluation metric called average error distance (AED) that simplifies the comparison of systems. We also perform elaborate human evaluations to compare the performance of our system against human judgments. We test and evaluate our approaches on a publicly available, specialised, annotated corpus containing 1132 evidence-based recommendations. Our rule-based approach performs exceptionally well at the automatic extraction of publication types of articles, with F-scores of up to 0.99 for high-quality publication types. For evidence quality classification, our approach obtains an accuracy of 63.84% and an AED of 0.271. The human evaluations show that the performance of our system, in terms of AED and accuracy, is comparable to the performance of humans on the same data. The experiments suggest that our structured text classification framework achieves evaluation results comparable to those of human performance. Our overall classification approach and evaluation technique are also highly portable and can be used for various evidence grading scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the costs and benefits of emotional labor: a meta-analysis of three decades of research.

PubMed

Hülsheger, Ute R; Schewe, Anna F

2011-07-01

This article provides a quantitative review of the link of emotional labor (emotion-rule dissonance, surface acting, and deep acting) with well-being and performance outcomes. The meta-analysis is based on 494 individual correlations drawn from a final sample of 95 independent studies. Results revealed substantial relationships of emotion-rule dissonance and surface acting with indicators of impaired well-being (ρs between .39 and .48) and job attitudes (ρs between -.24 and -.40) and a small negative relationship with performance outcomes (ρs between -.20 and -.05). Overall, deep acting displayed weak relationships with indicators of impaired well-being and job attitudes but positive relationships with emotional performance and customer satisfaction (ρs .18 and .37). A meta-analytic regression analysis provides information on the unique contribution of emotion-rule dissonance, surface acting, and deep acting in statistically predicting well-being and performance outcomes. Furthermore, a mediation analysis confirms theoretical models of emotional labor which suggest that surface acting partially mediates the relationship of emotion-rule dissonance with well-being. Implications for future research as well as pragmatic ramifications for organizational practices are discussed in conclusion.

Parsing the roles of the frontal lobes and basal ganglia in task control using multivoxel pattern analysis

PubMed Central

Kehagia, Angie A.; Ye, Rong; Joyce, Dan W.; Doyle, Orla M.; Rowe, James B.; Robbins, Trevor W.

2017-01-01

Cognitive control has traditionally been associated with the prefrontal cortex, based on observations of deficits in patients with frontal lesions. However, evidence from patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) indicates that subcortical regions also contribute to control under certain conditions. We scanned 17 healthy volunteers while they performed a task switching paradigm that previously dissociated performance deficits arising from frontal lesions in comparison with PD, as a function of the abstraction of the rules that are switched. From a multivoxel pattern analysis by Gaussian Process Classification (GPC), we then estimated the forward (generative) model to infer regional patterns of activity that predict Switch / Repeat behaviour between rule conditions. At 1000 permutations, Switch / Repeat classification accuracy for concrete rules was significant in the basal ganglia, but at chance in the frontal lobe. The inverse pattern was obtained for abstract rules, whereby the conditions were successfully discriminated in the frontal lobe but not in the basal ganglia. This double dissociation highlights the difference between cortical and subcortical contributions to cognitive control and demonstrates the utility of multivariate approaches in investigations of functions that rely on distributed and overlapping neural substrates. PMID:28387585

A neuronal model of predictive coding accounting for the mismatch negativity.

PubMed

Wacongne, Catherine; Changeux, Jean-Pierre; Dehaene, Stanislas

2012-03-14

The mismatch negativity (MMN) is thought to index the activation of specialized neural networks for active prediction and deviance detection. However, a detailed neuronal model of the neurobiological mechanisms underlying the MMN is still lacking, and its computational foundations remain debated. We propose here a detailed neuronal model of auditory cortex, based on predictive coding, that accounts for the critical features of MMN. The model is entirely composed of spiking excitatory and inhibitory neurons interconnected in a layered cortical architecture with distinct input, predictive, and prediction error units. A spike-timing dependent learning rule, relying upon NMDA receptor synaptic transmission, allows the network to adjust its internal predictions and use a memory of the recent past inputs to anticipate on future stimuli based on transition statistics. We demonstrate that this simple architecture can account for the major empirical properties of the MMN. These include a frequency-dependent response to rare deviants, a response to unexpected repeats in alternating sequences (ABABAA…), a lack of consideration of the global sequence context, a response to sound omission, and a sensitivity of the MMN to NMDA receptor antagonists. Novel predictions are presented, and a new magnetoencephalography experiment in healthy human subjects is presented that validates our key hypothesis: the MMN results from active cortical prediction rather than passive synaptic habituation.

Performance on the Balance Scale by Two-Year Old Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halford, Graeme S.; Dalton, Cherie

Twenty-two children ranging in age from 2 to 3 years were tested on their abilities to apply weight and distance rules to the balance scale. This study was performed to test the prediction that 2-year-olds would be able to understand either a weight rule or a distance rule, but not be able to integrate the two. The sample group was instructed in…

FAF-Drugs2: free ADME/tox filtering tool to assist drug discovery and chemical biology projects.

PubMed

Lagorce, David; Sperandio, Olivier; Galons, Hervé; Miteva, Maria A; Villoutreix, Bruno O

2008-09-24

Drug discovery and chemical biology are exceedingly complex and demanding enterprises. In recent years there are been increasing awareness about the importance of predicting/optimizing the absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADMET) properties of small chemical compounds along the search process rather than at the final stages. Fast methods for evaluating ADMET properties of small molecules often involve applying a set of simple empirical rules (educated guesses) and as such, compound collections' property profiling can be performed in silico. Clearly, these rules cannot assess the full complexity of the human body but can provide valuable information and assist decision-making. This paper presents FAF-Drugs2, a free adaptable tool for ADMET filtering of electronic compound collections. FAF-Drugs2 is a command line utility program (e.g., written in Python) based on the open source chemistry toolkit OpenBabel, which performs various physicochemical calculations, identifies key functional groups, some toxic and unstable molecules/functional groups. In addition to filtered collections, FAF-Drugs2 can provide, via Gnuplot, several distribution diagrams of major physicochemical properties of the screened compound libraries. We have developed FAF-Drugs2 to facilitate compound collection preparation, prior to (or after) experimental screening or virtual screening computations. Users can select to apply various filtering thresholds and add rules as needed for a given project. As it stands, FAF-Drugs2 implements numerous filtering rules (23 physicochemical rules and 204 substructure searching rules) that can be easily tuned.

Use of a remote clinical decision support service for a multicenter trial to implement prediction rules for children with minor blunt head trauma.

PubMed

Goldberg, Howard S; Paterno, Marilyn D; Grundmeier, Robert W; Rocha, Beatriz H; Hoffman, Jeffrey M; Tham, Eric; Swietlik, Marguerite; Schaeffer, Molly H; Pabbathi, Deepika; Deakyne, Sara J; Kuppermann, Nathan; Dayan, Peter S

2016-03-01

To evaluate the architecture, integration requirements, and execution characteristics of a remote clinical decision support (CDS) service used in a multicenter clinical trial. The trial tested the efficacy of implementing brain injury prediction rules for children with minor blunt head trauma. We integrated the Epic(®) electronic health record (EHR) with the Enterprise Clinical Rules Service (ECRS), a web-based CDS service, at two emergency departments. Patterns of CDS review included either a delayed, near-real-time review, where the physician viewed CDS recommendations generated by the nursing assessment, or a real-time review, where the physician viewed recommendations generated by their own documentation. A backstopping, vendor-based CDS triggered with zero delay when no recommendation was available in the EHR from the web-service. We assessed the execution characteristics of the integrated system and the source of the generated recommendations viewed by physicians. The ECRS mean execution time was 0.74 ±0.72 s. Overall execution time was substantially different at the two sites, with mean total transaction times of 19.67 and 3.99 s. Of 1930 analyzed transactions from the two sites, 60% (310/521) of all physician documentation-initiated recommendations and 99% (1390/1409) of all nurse documentation-initiated recommendations originated from the remote web service. The remote CDS system was the source of recommendations in more than half of the real-time cases and virtually all the near-real-time cases. Comparisons are limited by allowable variation in user workflow and resolution of the EHR clock. With maturation and adoption of standards for CDS services, remote CDS shows promise to decrease time-to-trial for multicenter evaluations of candidate decision support interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Ottawa Knee Rule: Examining Use in an Academic Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Beutel, Bryan G.; Trehan, Samir K.; Shalvoy, Robert M.; Mello, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Introduction: The Ottawa Knee Rule is a validated clinical decision rule for determining whether knee radiographs should be obtained in the setting of acute knee trauma. The objectives of this study were to assess physician knowledge of, barriers to implementation of, and compliance with the Ottawa Knee Rule in academic emergency departments (EDs), and evaluate whether patient characteristics predict guideline noncompliance. Methods: A 10 question online survey was distributed to all attending ED physicians working at three affiliated academic EDs to assess knowledge, attitudes and self-reported practice behaviors related to the Ottawa Knee Rule. We also performed a retrospective ED record review of patients 13 years of age and older who presented with acute knee trauma to the 3 study EDs during the 2009 calendar year, and we analyzed ED records for 19 variables. Results: ED physicians (n = 47) correctly answered 73.2% of questions assessing knowledge of the Ottawa Knee Rule. The most commonly cited barriers to implementation were “patient expectations” and system issues, such as “orthopedics referral requirement.” We retrospectively reviewed 838 records, with 260 eligible for study inclusion. The rate of Ottawa Knee Rule compliance was retrospectively determined to be 63.1%. We observed a statistically significant correlation between Ottawa Knee Rule compliance and patient age, but not gender, insurance status, or provider type, among others. Conclusion: Compliance with the Ottawa Knee Rule among academic ED healthcare providers is poor, which was predicted by patient age and not other physician or patient variables. Improving compliance will require comprehensive educational and systemic interventions. PMID:23251717

Emotional display rules as work unit norms: a multilevel analysis of emotional labor among nurses.

PubMed

Diefendorff, James M; Erickson, Rebecca J; Grandey, Alicia A; Dahling, Jason J

2011-04-01

Emotional labor theory has conceptualized emotional display rules as shared norms governing the expression of emotions at work. Using a sample of registered nurses working in different units of a hospital system, we provided the first empirical evidence that display rules can be represented as shared, unit-level beliefs. Additionally, controlling for the influence of dispositional affectivity, individual-level display rule perceptions, and emotion regulation, we found that unit-level display rules are associated with individual-level job satisfaction. We also showed that unit-level display rules relate to burnout indirectly through individual-level display rule perceptions and emotion regulation strategies. Finally, unit-level display rules also interacted with individual-level dispositional affectivity to predict employee use of emotion regulation strategies. We discuss how future research on emotional labor and display rules, particularly in the health care setting, can build on these findings.

The predictive value of self-report questions in a clinical decision rule for pediatric lead poisoning screening.

PubMed

Kaplowitz, Stan A; Perlstadt, Harry; D'Onofrio, Gail; Melnick, Edward R; Baum, Carl R; Kirrane, Barbara M; Post, Lori A

2012-01-01

We derived a clinical decision rule for determining which young children need testing for lead poisoning. We developed an equation that combines lead exposure self-report questions with the child's census-block housing and socioeconomic characteristics, personal demographic characteristics, and Medicaid status. This equation better predicts elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than one using ZIP code and Medicaid status. A survey regarding potential lead exposure was administered from October 2001 to January 2003 to Michigan parents at pediatric clinics (n=3,396). These self-report survey data were linked to a statewide clinical registry of blood lead level (BLL) tests. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and then used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the equation. The census-block group prediction equation explained 18.1% of the variance in BLLs. Replacing block group characteristics with the self-report questions and dichotomized ZIP code risk explained only 12.6% of the variance. Adding three self-report questions to the census-block group model increased the variance explained to 19.9% and increased specificity with no loss in sensitivity in detecting EBLLs of ≥ 10 micrograms per deciliter. Relying solely on self-reports of lead exposure predicted BLL less effectively than the block group model. However, adding three of 13 self-report questions to our clinical decision rule significantly improved prediction of which children require a BLL test. Using the equation as the clinical decision rule would annually eliminate more than 7,200 unnecessary tests in Michigan and save more than $220,000.

A rule-based software test data generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deason, William H.; Brown, David B.; Chang, Kai-Hsiung; Cross, James H., II

1991-01-01

Rule-based software test data generation is proposed as an alternative to either path/predicate analysis or random data generation. A prototype rule-based test data generator for Ada programs is constructed and compared to a random test data generator. Four Ada procedures are used in the comparison. Approximately 2000 rule-based test cases and 100,000 randomly generated test cases are automatically generated and executed. The success of the two methods is compared using standard coverage metrics. Simple statistical tests showing that even the primitive rule-based test data generation prototype is significantly better than random data generation are performed. This result demonstrates that rule-based test data generation is feasible and shows great promise in assisting test engineers, especially when the rule base is developed further.

Implementing a Bayes Filter in a Neural Circuit: The Case of Unknown Stimulus Dynamics.

PubMed

Sokoloski, Sacha

2017-09-01

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli that caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. The internal model of the Bayes filter is based on the true stimulus dynamics, and in this note, we present a method for training a theoretical neural circuit to approximately implement a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of linear probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood of the neural network parameters with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.

Rule groupings: An approach towards verification of expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehrotra, Mala

1991-01-01

Knowledge-based expert systems are playing an increasingly important role in NASA space and aircraft systems. However, many of NASA's software applications are life- or mission-critical and knowledge-based systems do not lend themselves to the traditional verification and validation techniques for highly reliable software. Rule-based systems lack the control abstractions found in procedural languages. Hence, it is difficult to verify or maintain such systems. Our goal is to automatically structure a rule-based system into a set of rule-groups having a well-defined interface to other rule-groups. Once a rule base is decomposed into such 'firewalled' units, studying the interactions between rules would become more tractable. Verification-aid tools can then be developed to test the behavior of each such rule-group. Furthermore, the interactions between rule-groups can be studied in a manner similar to integration testing. Such efforts will go a long way towards increasing our confidence in the expert-system software. Our research efforts address the feasibility of automating the identification of rule groups, in order to decompose the rule base into a number of meaningful units.

Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm: multicentre, prospective cohort study†

PubMed Central

Quinlivan, Leah; Cooper, Jayne; Meehan, Declan; Longson, Damien; Potokar, John; Hulme, Tom; Marsden, Jennifer; Brand, Fiona; Lange, Kezia; Riseborough, Elena; Page, Lisa; Metcalfe, Chris; Davies, Linda; O'Connor, Rory; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

2017-01-01

Background Scales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking. Aims To evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months. Method A multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy. Results In total, 483 episodes of self-harm were included in the study. The episode-based 6-month repetition rate was 30% (n = 145). Sensitivity ranged from 1% (95% CI 0–5) for the SAD PERSONS scale, to 97% (95% CI 93–99) for the Manchester Self-Harm Rule. Positive predictive values ranged from 13% (95% CI 2–47) for the Modified SAD PERSONS Scale to 47% (95% CI 41–53) for the clinician assessment of risk. The AUC ranged from 0.55 (95% CI 0.50–0.61) for the SAD PERSONS scale to 0.74 (95% CI 0.69–0.79) for the clinician global scale. The remaining scales performed significantly worse than clinician and patient estimates of risk (P<0.001). Conclusions Risk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm. PMID:28302702

Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm: multicentre, prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Quinlivan, Leah; Cooper, Jayne; Meehan, Declan; Longson, Damien; Potokar, John; Hulme, Tom; Marsden, Jennifer; Brand, Fiona; Lange, Kezia; Riseborough, Elena; Page, Lisa; Metcalfe, Chris; Davies, Linda; O'Connor, Rory; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

2017-06-01

Background Scales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking. Aims To evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months. Method A multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy. Results In total, 483 episodes of self-harm were included in the study. The episode-based 6-month repetition rate was 30% ( n = 145). Sensitivity ranged from 1% (95% CI 0-5) for the SAD PERSONS scale, to 97% (95% CI 93-99) for the Manchester Self-Harm Rule. Positive predictive values ranged from 13% (95% CI 2-47) for the Modified SAD PERSONS Scale to 47% (95% CI 41-53) for the clinician assessment of risk. The AUC ranged from 0.55 (95% CI 0.50-0.61) for the SAD PERSONS scale to 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.79) for the clinician global scale. The remaining scales performed significantly worse than clinician and patient estimates of risk ( P <0.001). Conclusions Risk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

Kinetics of austenite-pearlite transformation in eutectoid carbon steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawbolt, E. B.; Chau, B.; Brimacombe, J. K.

1983-09-01

The kinetics of the austenite-to-pearlite transformation have been measured under isothermal and continuous-cooling conditions on a eutectoid carbon (1080) steel using a diametral dilatometric technique. The isothermal transformation kinetics have been analyzed in terms of the Avrami Equation containing the two parameters n and b; the initiation of transformation was characterized by an empirically determined transformation-start time (tAv). The parameter n was found to be nearly constant; and neither n nor b was dependent on the cooling rate between T A1 and the test temperature. Continuous-cooling tests were performed with cooling rates ranging from 7.5 to 108 °C per second, and the initiation of transformation was determined. Comparison of this transformation-start time for different cooling rates with the measured slow cooling of a test coupon immersed in a salt bath indicates that, particularly at lower temperatures, the transformation in the traditional T-T-T test specimen may not be isothermal. The additivity rule was found to predict accurately the time taken, relative to tAv, to reach a given fraction of austenite transformed, even though there is some question that the isokinetic condition was met above 660 °C. However, the additivity rule does not hold for the pretransformation or incubation period, as originally proposed by Scheil, and seriously overestimates the incubation time. Application of the additivity rule to the prediction of transformation-finish time, based on transformation start at TA1, also leads to overestimates, but these are less serious. The isothermal parameters— n ( T), b ( T), and tAv ( T)—have been used to predict continuous-cooling transformation kinetics which are in close agreement with measurements at four cooling rates ranging from 7.5 to 64 °C per second.

Fine- and hyperfine-structure effects in molecular photoionization. I. General theory and direct photoionization.

PubMed

Germann, Matthias; Willitsch, Stefan

2016-07-28

We develop a model for predicting fine- and hyperfine intensities in the direct photoionization of molecules based on the separability of electron and nuclear spin states from vibrational-electronic states. Using spherical tensor algebra, we derive highly symmetrized forms of the squared photoionization dipole matrix elements from which we derive the salient selection and propensity rules for fine- and hyperfine resolved photoionizing transitions. Our theoretical results are validated by the analysis of the fine-structure resolved photoelectron spectrum of O2 reported by Palm and Merkt [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 1385 (1998)] and are used for predicting hyperfine populations of molecular ions produced by photoionization.

Wave propagation modeling in composites reinforced by randomly oriented fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

2018-02-01

A new method for prediction of elastic constants in randomly oriented fiber composites is proposed. It is based on mechanics of composites, the rule of mixtures and total mass balance tailored to the spectral element mesh composed of 3D brick elements. Selected elastic properties predicted by the proposed method are compared with values obtained by another theoretical method. The proposed method is applied for simulation of Lamb waves in glass-epoxy composite plate reinforced by randomly oriented fibers. Full wavefield measurements conducted by the scanning laser Doppler vibrometer are in good agreement with simulations performed by using the time domain spectral element method.

Factors affecting unplanned readmissions from community hospitals to acute hospitals: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Leong, Ian Y O; Chan, Siew-Pang; Tan, Boon-Yeow; Sitoh, Yih-Yiow; Ang, Yan-Hoon; Merchant, Reshma; Kanagasabai, Kala; Lee, Patricia S Y; Pang, Weng-Sun

2009-02-01

While the readmission rate from community hospitals is known, the factors affecting it are not. Our aim was to determine the factors predicting unplanned readmissions from community hospitals (CHs) to acute hospitals (AHs). This was an observational prospective cohort study, involving 842 patients requiring post-acute rehabilitation in 2 CHs admitted from 3 AHs in Singapore. We studied the role of the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) organ impairment scores, the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) score, the Shah modified Barthel Index (BI) score, and the triceps skin fold thickness (TSFT) in predicting the rate of unplanned readmissions (UR), early unplanned readmissions (EUPR) and late unplanned readmissions (LUPR). We developed a clinical prediction rule to determine the risk of UR and EUPR. The rates of EUPR and LUPR were 7.6% and 10.3% respectively. The factors that predicted UR were the CIRS-heart score, the CIRS-haemopoietic score, the CIRS-endocrine / metabolic score and the BI on admission. The MMSE was predictive of EUPR. The TSFT and CIRS-liver score were predictive of LUPR. Upon receiver operator characteristics analysis, the clinical prediction rules for the prediction of EUPR and UR had areas under the curve of 0.745 and 0.733 respectively. The likelihood ratios of the clinical prediction rules for EUPR and UR ranged from 0.42 to 5.69 and 0.34 to 3.16 respectively. Patients who have UR can be identified by the admission BI, the MMSE, the TSFT and CIRS scores in the cardiac, haemopoietic, liver and endocrine/metabolic systems.

Electronic media time and sedentary behaviors in children: Findings from the Built Environment and Active Play Study in the Washington DC area.

PubMed

Roberts, Jennifer D; Rodkey, Lindsey; Ray, Rashawn; Knight, Brandon; Saelens, Brian E

2017-06-01

An objective of the Built Environment and Active Play (BEAP) Study was to examine whether home built environment, bedroom electronic presence, parental rules and demographics predicted children's sedentary behavior (SB). In 2014, BEAP Study questionnaires were mailed to 2000 parents of children (7-12 years) within the Washington DC area. SB-Duration (hours/day) and SB-Frequency (days/week) were assessed by two questions with multiple subparts relating to SB activity type (e.g. car riding) and SB companionship (e.g. friends). Built environment, bedroom electronic presence, parental rules and demographic data were obtained through questionnaire items and ordered logistic regression models were used to examine whether these variables were associated with SB. Study sample included 144 children (female (50%); average age (9.7 years); White (56.3%); Black/African-American (23.7%); Asian-Americans (10.4%)). Nearly 40% of the sample reported daily solitary SB with car riding being the most frequently reported type of SB. Children living on streets without a dead-end/cul-de-sac exhibited a higher odds in SB-Duration using electric media [2.61 (CI: 1.31, 5.18)] and having no television in a child's bedroom was associated with a lower odds in SB-Frequency [0.048 (CI: 0.006, 0.393)] and SB-Duration [0.085 (CI: 0.018, 0.395)]. Non-Hispanic/Latino children were also found to have higher odds in solitary SB-Frequency when parental rules of electronic use were modeled [8.56 (CI: 1.11, 66.01)]. Based on results from this cross-sectional study, home neighborhood built environment, bedroom electronic presence and absence of parental rules can significantly predict children's SB.

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Rana, Prashant Singh; Singh, Urvinder

2018-04-01

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug-drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

Severe community-acquired pneumonia: use of intensive care services and evaluation of American and British Thoracic Society Diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Angus, Derek C; Marrie, Thomas J; Obrosky, D Scott; Clermont, Gilles; Dremsizov, Tony T; Coley, Christopher; Fine, Michael J; Singer, Daniel E; Kapoor, Wishwa N

2002-09-01

Despite careful evaluation of changes in hospital care for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), little is known about intensive care unit (ICU) use in the treatment of this disease. There are criteria that define CAP as "severe," but evaluation of their predictive value is limited. We compared characteristics, course, and outcome of inpatients who did (n = 170) and did not (n = 1,169) receive ICU care in the Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team prospective cohort. We also assessed the predictive characteristics of four prediction rules (the original and revised American Thoracic Society criteria, the British Thoracic Society criteria, and the Pneumonia Severity Index [PSI]) for ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, medical complications, and death (as proxies for severe CAP). ICU patients were more likely to be admitted from home and had more comorbid conditions. Reasons for ICU admission included respiratory failure (57%), hemodynamic monitoring (32%), and shock (16%). ICU patients incurred longer hospital stays (23.2 vs. 9.1 days, p < 0.001), higher hospital costs (21,144 dollars vs. 5,785 dollars, p < 0.001), more nonpulmonary organ dysfunction, and higher hospital mortality (18.2 vs. 5.0%, p < 0.001). Although ICU patients were sicker, 27% were of low risk (PSI Risk Classes I-III). Severity-adjusted ICU admission rates varied across institutions, but mechanical ventilation rates did not. The revised American Thoracic Society criteria rule was the best discriminator of ICU admission and mechanical ventilation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.68 and 0.74, respectively) but none of the prediction rules were particularly good. The PSI was the best predictor of medical complications and death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65 and 0.75, respectively), but again, none of the prediction rules were particularly good. In conclusion, ICU use for CAP is common and expensive but admission rates are variable. Clinical prediction rules for severe CAP do not appear adequately robust to guide clinical care at the current time.

Determinants and development of a web-based child mortality prediction model in resource-limited settings: A data mining approach.

PubMed

Tesfaye, Brook; Atique, Suleman; Elias, Noah; Dibaba, Legesse; Shabbir, Syed-Abdul; Kebede, Mihiretu

2017-03-01

Improving child health and reducing child mortality rate are key health priorities in developing countries. This study aimed to identify determinant sand develop, a web-based child mortality prediction model in Ethiopian local language using classification data mining algorithm. Decision tree (using J48 algorithm) and rule induction (using PART algorithm) techniques were applied on 11,654 records of Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) for windows version 3.6.8 was used to develop optimal models. 8157 (70%) records were randomly allocated to training group for model building while; the remaining 3496 (30%) records were allocated as the test group for model validation. The validation of the model was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0; logistic regressions and Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to identify determinants of child mortality. The child mortality rate was 72 deaths per 1000 live births. Breast-feeding (AOR= 1.46, (95% CI [1.22. 1.75]), maternal education (AOR= 1.40, 95% CI [1.11, 1.81]), family planning (AOR= 1.21, [1.08, 1.43]), preceding birth interval (AOR= 4.90, [2.94, 8.15]), presence of diarrhea (AOR= 1.54, 95% CI [1.32, 1.66]), father's education (AOR= 1.4, 95% CI [1.04, 1.78]), low birth weight (AOR= 1.2, 95% CI [0.98, 1.51]) and, age of the mother at first birth (AOR= 1.42, [1.01-1.89]) were found to be determinants for child mortality. The J48 model had better performance, accuracy (94.3%), sensitivity (93.8%), specificity (94.3%), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) (92.2%), Negative Predictive Value (NPV) (94.5%) and, the area under ROC (94.8%). Subsequent to developing an optimal prediction model, we relied on this model to develop a web-based application system for child mortality prediction. In this study, nearly accurate results were obtained by employing decision tree and rule induction techniques. Determinants are identified and a web-based child mortality prediction model in Ethiopian local language is developed. Thus, the result obtained could support child health intervention programs in Ethiopia where trained human resource for health is limited. Advanced classification algorithms need to be tested to come up with optimal models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic evaluation of strategies for restarting anticoagulation therapy after a first event of unprovoked venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Monahan, M; Ensor, J; Moore, D; Fitzmaurice, D; Jowett, S

2017-08-01

Essentials Correct duration of treatment after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. We assessed when restarting anticoagulation was worthwhile based on patient risk of recurrent VTE. When the risk over a one-year period is 17.5%, restarting is cost-effective. However, sensitivity analyses indicate large uncertainty in the estimates. Background Following at least 3 months of anticoagulation therapy after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), there is uncertainty about the duration of therapy. Further anticoagulation therapy reduces the risk of having a potentially fatal recurrent VTE but at the expense of a higher risk of bleeding, which can also be fatal. Objective An economic evaluation sought to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of using a decision rule for restarting anticoagulation therapy vs. no extension of therapy in patients based on their risk of a further unprovoked VTE. Methods A Markov patient-level simulation model was developed, which adopted a lifetime time horizon with monthly time cycles and was from a UK National Health Service (NHS)/Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective. Results Base-case model results suggest that treating patients with a predicted 1 year VTE risk of 17.5% or higher may be cost-effective if decision makers are willing to pay up to £20 000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. However, probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that the model was highly sensitive to overall parameter uncertainty and caution is warranted in selecting the optimal decision rule on cost-effectiveness grounds. Univariate sensitivity analyses indicate variables such as anticoagulation therapy disutility and mortality risks were very influential in driving model results. Conclusion This represents the first economic model to consider the use of a decision rule for restarting therapy for unprovoked VTE patients. Better data are required to predict long-term bleeding risks during therapy in this patient group. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.