Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

2014-02-01

In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-11-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

PubMed

Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

2016-01-01

Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

2016-12-01

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume II, Appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume I, Technical research effort

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015

PubMed Central

Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

2016-01-01

Background: Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Objective: Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. Settings and Design: It was a cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. Results: From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. Conclusion: From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents. PMID:27308255

Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-31

This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

PubMed

Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2012-03-09

Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

PubMed Central

Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

2013-01-01

Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

The "killing zone" revisited: serial nonlinearities predict general aviation accident rates from pilot total flight hours.

PubMed

Knecht, William R

2013-11-01

Is there a "killing zone" (Craig, 2001)-a range of pilot flight time over which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk? More broadly, can we predict accident rates, given a pilot's total flight hours (TFH)? These questions interest pilots, aviation policy makers, insurance underwriters, and researchers alike. Most GA research studies implicitly assume that accident rates are linearly related to TFH, but that relation may actually be multiply nonlinear. This work explores the ability of serial nonlinear modeling functions to predict GA accident rates from noisy rate data binned by TFH. Two sets of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)/Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data were log-transformed, then curve-fit to a gamma-pdf-based function. Despite high rate-noise, this produced weighted goodness-of-fit (Rw(2)) estimates of .654 and .775 for non-instrument-rated (non-IR) and instrument-rated pilots (IR) respectively. Serial-nonlinear models could be useful to directly predict GA accident rates from TFH, and as an independent variable or covariate to control for flight risk during data analysis. Applied to FAA data, these models imply that the "killing zone" may be broader than imagined. Relatively high risk for an individual pilot may extend well beyond the 2000-h mark before leveling off to a baseline rate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

PubMed

Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

2018-01-01

Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the accidents during the high-risk periods in order to control and decrease the rate of the injuries.

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

PubMed

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2015-07-01

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

PubMed

Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

2011-05-01

On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue-related error, incident, or accident in the early morning due to truncated sleep from the early start and adverse circadian phase from the time of day. This in turn suggests that fatigue mitigation targeted to early morning starts might reduce fatigue risk. In summary, this study suggests that mathematical models predicting performance from sleep/wake history and circadian phase are (1) useful in retrospective accident analysis provided reliable sleep/wake histories are available for the accident personnel and, (2) useful in prospective fatigue-risk identification, mitigation, and accident prevention. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the Possibility a Right-Turn Driving Behavior at Intersection Leads to an Accident by Detecting Deviation of the Situation from Usual when the Behavior is Observed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Toshinori; Yamada, Keiichi

Deviation of driving behavior from usual could be a sign of human error that increases the risk of traffic accidents. This paper proposes a novel method for predicting the possibility a driving behavior leads to an accident from the information on the driving behavior and the situation. In a previous work, a method of predicting the possibility by detecting the deviation of driving behavior from usual one in that situation has been proposed. In contrast, the method proposed in this paper predicts the possibility by detecting the deviation of the situation from usual one when the behavior is observed. An advantage of the proposed method is the number of the required models is independent of the variety of the situations. The method was applied to a problem of predicting accidents by right-turn driving behavior at an intersection, and the performance of the method was evaluated by experiments on a driving simulator.

Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction

PubMed Central

Giordano, Chiara; Kleiven, Svein

2017-01-01

Human body models (HBMs) have the potential to provide significant insights into the pediatric response to impact. This study describes a scalable/posable approach to perform child accident reconstructions using the Position and Personalize Advanced Human Body Models for Injury Prediction (PIPER) scalable child HBM of different ages and in different positions obtained by the PIPER tool. Overall, the PIPER scalable child HBM managed reasonably well to predict the injury severity and location of the children involved in real-life crash scenarios documented in the medical records. The developed methodology and workflow is essential for future work to determine child injury tolerances based on the full Child Advanced Safety Project for European Roads (CASPER) accident reconstruction database. With the workflow presented in this study, the open-source PIPER scalable HBM combined with the PIPER tool is also foreseen to have implications for improved safety designs for a better protection of children in traffic accidents. PMID:29135997

HAS INCREASED BODY WEIGHT MADE DRIVING SAFER?†

PubMed Central

DUNN, RICHARD A.; TEFFT, NATHAN W.

2014-01-01

We develop a model of alcohol consumption that incorporates the negative biological relationship between body mass and inebriation conditional on total alcohol consumption. Our model predicts that the elasticity of inebriation with respect to weight is equal to the own-price elasticity of alcohol, consistent with body mass increasing the effective price of inebriation. Given that alcohol is generally considered price inelastic, this result implies that as individuals gain weight, they consume more alcohol but become less inebriated. We test this prediction and find that driver blood alcohol content (BAC) is negatively associated with driver weight. In fatal accidents with driver BAC above 0.10, the driver was 7.8 percentage points less likely to be obese than drivers in fatal accidents that did not involve alcohol. This relationship is not explained by driver attributes (age and sex), driver behaviors (speed and seatbelt use), vehicle attributes (weight class, model year, and number of occupants), or accident context (county of accident, time of day, and day of week). PMID:24038409

Dispersion of Fukushima radionuclides in the global atmosphere and the ocean.

PubMed

Povinec, P P; Gera, M; Holý, K; Hirose, K; Lujaniené, G; Nakano, M; Plastino, W; Sýkora, I; Bartok, J; Gažák, M

2013-11-01

Large quantities of radionuclides were released in March-April 2011 during the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmospheric and marine modeling has been carried out to predict the dispersion of radionuclides worldwide, to compare the predicted and measured radionuclide concentrations, and to assess the impact of the accident on the environment. Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion modeling was used to simulate the dispersion of (137)Cs over America and Europe. Global ocean circulation model was applied to predict the dispersion of (137)Cs in the Pacific Ocean. The measured and simulated (137)Cs concentrations in atmospheric aerosols and in seawater are compared with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident, which represent the main sources of the pre-Fukushima radionuclide background in the environment. The radionuclide concentrations in the atmosphere have been negligible when compared with the Chernobyl levels. The maximum (137)Cs concentration in surface waters of the open Pacific Ocean will be around 20 Bq/m(3). The plume will reach the US coast 4-5 y after the accident, however, the levels will be below 3 Bq/m(3). All the North Pacific Ocean will be labeled with Fukushima (137)Cs 10 y after the accident with concentration bellow 1 Bq/m(3). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The social accident: a theoretical model and a research agenda for studying the influence of social and cultural characteristics on motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Factor, Roni; Mahalel, David; Yair, Gad

2007-09-01

The paper develops a sociological model to explain collisions between two drivers or more. The "Social Accident" model presented here integrates empirical findings from prior studies and extant sociological theories. Sociological theory posits that social groups have unique cultural characteristics, which include a distinctive world view and ways of operating that influence its members. These cultural characteristics may cause drivers in different groups to interpret a given situation differently; therefore, they will make conflicting decisions that may possibly lead to road accidents. The proposed model may contribute to an understanding of the social mechanism related to interactions and communication among drivers by presenting new directions for understanding accidents and collisions. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that will employ the model to assess its predictive and practical utility.

NASA Structural Analysis Report on the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident - Local Analysis of the Right Rear Lug

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G

2005-01-01

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. From the analyses conducted and presented in this paper, the following conclusions were drawn. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003- subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs. I.

Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression After Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

2008-01-01

The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM–IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma. PMID:18377119

Operational atmospheric modeling system CARIS for effective emergency response associated with hazardous chemical releases in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Cheol-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Park, Cheol-Jin; Na, Jin-Gyun

2004-03-01

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time. This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.

FASTGRASS: A mechanistic model for the prediction of Xe, I, Cs, Te, Ba, and Sr release from nuclear fuel under normal and severe-accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rest, J.; Zawadzki, S.A.

The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are identified.

Do claim factors predict health care utilization after transport accidents?

PubMed

Elbers, Nieke A; Cuijpers, Pim; Akkermans, Arno J; Collie, Alex; Ruseckaite, Rasa; Bruinvels, David J

2013-04-01

Injured people who are involved in compensation processes have less recovery and less well-being compared to those not involved in claims settlement procedures. This study investigated whether claim factors, such as no-fault versus common law claims, the number of independent medical assessments, and legal disputes, predict health care utilization after transport accidents. The sample consisted of 68,911 claimants who lodged a compensation claim at the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) in Victoria, Australia, between 2000 and 2005. The main outcome measure was health care utilization, which was defined as the number of visits to health care providers (e.g. general practitioners, physiotherapists, psychologists) during the 5 year period post-accident. After correction for gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury, it was found that independent medical assessments were associated with greater health care utilization (β=.36, p<.001). Involvement in common law claims and legal disputes were both significantly related to health care utilization (respectively β=.05, p<.001 and β=-.02, p<.001), however, the standardized betas were negligible, therefore the effect is not clinically relevant. A model including claim factors predicted the number of health care visits significantly better (ΔR(2)=.08, p<.001) than a model including only gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury. The positive association between the number of independent medical assessments and health care utilization after transport accidents may imply that numerous medical assessments have a negative effect on claimants' health. However, further research is needed to determine a causal relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

2016-10-01

One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egarievwe, Stephen U.; Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; Coble, Jamie B.

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131more » and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 μSv/h, compared to 0.0210 μSv/h for PCR, 0.231 μSv/h for ridge regression L-curve, 0.0856 μSv/h for PLS, and 0.0860 μSv/h for ridge regression cross validation. Complete results using the full datasets for these models will also be presented. (authors)« less

Condensation model for the ESBWR passive condensers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Revankar, S. T.; Zhou, W.; Wolf, B.

2012-07-01

In the General Electric's Economic simplified boiling water reactor (GE-ESBWR) the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) plays a major role in containment pressure control in case of an loss of coolant accident. The PCCS condenser must be able to remove sufficient energy from the reactor containment to prevent containment from exceeding its design pressure following a design basis accident. There are three PCCS condensation modes depending on the containment pressurization due to coolant discharge; complete condensation, cyclic venting and flow through mode. The present work reviews the models and presents model predictive capability along with comparison with existing data frommore » separate effects test. The condensation models in thermal hydraulics code RELAP5 are also assessed to examine its application to various flow modes of condensation. The default model in the code predicts complete condensation well, and basically is Nusselt solution. The UCB model predicts through flow well. None of condensation model in RELAP5 predict complete condensation, cyclic venting, and through flow condensation consistently. New condensation correlations are given that accurately predict all three modes of PCCS condensation. (authors)« less

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Structural Analysis of the Right Rear Lug of American Airlines Flight 587

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G.

2006-01-01

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985- certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003-subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs.

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

PubMed

Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

2010-08-01

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

PubMed

Caird, J K; Kline, T J

2004-12-01

Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

2012-01-01

To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

2017-10-01

Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

PubMed

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Accident occurrence and functional health patterns: a pilot study of relationships in a graduate population.

PubMed

Sheerin, Fintan K; Curtis, Elizabeth; de Vries, Jan

2012-06-01

This pilot study sought to examine the relationship between functional health patterns and accident proneness. A quantitative-descriptive design was employed assessing accident proneness by collecting data on the occurrence of accidents among a sample of university graduates, and examining this in relation to biographical data and information collated using the Functional Health Pattern Assessment Screening Tool (FHPAST). Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. One FHPAST factor predicted more frequent sports accidents. Age was also shown to be a significant predictor but in a counterintuitive way, with greater age predicting less accident proneness. The FHPAST may have a role to play in accident prediction. Functional health pattern assessment may be useful for predicting accidents. © 2012, The Authors. International Journal of Nursing Knowledge © 2012, NANDA International.

An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

PubMed

Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

2014-05-01

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergency preparedness for the accidental release of radionuclides from the Uljin Nuclear Power Plant in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Joo, Seung Jin; Ju, Jae-Won

2017-12-01

Site specific radionuclide dispersion databases were archived for the emergency response to the hypothetical releases of 137 Cs from the Uljin nuclear power plant in Korea. These databases were obtained with the horizontal resolution of 1.5 km in the local domain centered the power plant site by simulations of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the Unified Model (UM)-Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS). The Eulerian Dispersion Model-East Asia (EDM-EA) with the UM-Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (UM-GDAPS) meteorological models was used to get dispersion databases in the regional domain. The LPDM model was performed for a year with a 5-day interval yielding 72 synoptic time-scale cases in a year. For each case hourly mean near surface concentrations, hourly mean column integrated concentrations, hourly total depositions for 5 consecutive days were archived by the LPDM model in the local domain and by the EDM-EA model in the regional domain of Asia. Among 72 synoptic cases in a year the worst synoptic case that showed the highest mean surface concentration averaged for 5 days in the LPDM model domain was chosen to illustrate the emergency preparedness to the hypothetical accident at the site. The simulated results by the LPDM model with the 137 Cs emission rate of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident for the first 5-day period were found to be able to provide prerequisite information for the emergency response to the early phase of the accident whereas those of the EDM-EA model could provide information required for the environmental impact assessment of the accident in the regional domain. The archived site-specific database of 72 synoptic cases in a year could have a great potential to be used as a prognostic information on the emergency preparedness for the early phase of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative modelling in cognitive ergonomics: predicting signals passed at danger.

PubMed

Moray, Neville; Groeger, John; Stanton, Neville

2017-02-01

This paper shows how to combine field observations, experimental data and mathematical modelling to produce quantitative explanations and predictions of complex events in human-machine interaction. As an example, we consider a major railway accident. In 1999, a commuter train passed a red signal near Ladbroke Grove, UK, into the path of an express. We use the Public Inquiry Report, 'black box' data, and accident and engineering reports to construct a case history of the accident. We show how to combine field data with mathematical modelling to estimate the probability that the driver observed and identified the state of the signals, and checked their status. Our methodology can explain the SPAD ('Signal Passed At Danger'), generate recommendations about signal design and placement and provide quantitative guidance for the design of safer railway systems' speed limits and the location of signals. Practitioner Summary: Detailed ergonomic analysis of railway signals and rail infrastructure reveals problems of signal identification at this location. A record of driver eye movements measures attention, from which a quantitative model for out signal placement and permitted speeds can be derived. The paper is an example of how to combine field data, basic research and mathematical modelling to solve ergonomic design problems.

Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

2018-01-01

With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertch, Timothy Creston

1998-12-01

Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release with a submerged commercial nuclear power plant. The two box models predict the most of the radio-ecological impact occurs during the first eight days after release. The most significant risk to humans is from consumption of biota. The reduction in impact to humans from a large radioactive release makes the concept worthy of further study.

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Medical-encounter mental health diagnoses, non-fatal injury and polypharmacy indicators of risk for accident death in the US Army enlisted soldiers, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Schroeder, Heather M; Berglund, Patricia A; Colpe, Lisa J; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Hay, Jeffrey D; Jones, Bruce; Little, Roderick J A; Mitchell, Colter; Schoenbaum, Michael; Schulz, Paul; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2018-06-01

Accidents are a leading cause of deaths in U.S. active duty personnel. Understanding accident deaths during wartime could facilitate future operational planning and inform risk prevention efforts. This study expands prior research, identifying health risk factors associated with U.S. Army accident deaths during the Afghanistan and Iraq war. Military records for 2004-2009 enlisted, active duty, Regular Army soldiers were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to identify mental health, injury, and polypharmacy (multiple narcotic and/or psychotropic medications) predictors of accident deaths for current, previously, and never deployed groups. Deployed soldiers with anxiety diagnoses showed higher risk for accident deaths. Over half had anxiety diagnoses prior to being deployed, suggesting anticipatory anxiety or symptom recurrence may contribute to high risk. For previously deployed soldiers, traumatic brain injury (TBI) indicated higher risk. Two-thirds of these soldiers had first TBI medical-encounter while non-deployed, but mild, combat-related TBIs may have been undetected during deployments. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) predicted higher risk for never deployed soldiers, as did polypharmacy which may relate to reasons for deployment ineligibility. Health risk predictors for Army accident deaths are identified and potential practice and policy implications discussed. Further research could test for replicability and expand models to include unobserved factors or modifiable mechanisms related to high risk. PTSD predicted high risk among those never deployed, suggesting importance of identification, treatment, and prevention of non-combat traumatic events. Finally, risk predictors overlapped with those identified for suicides, suggesting effective intervention might reduce both types of deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M

2015-11-01

According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Human Brain Modeling with Its Anatomical Structure and Realistic Material Properties for Brain Injury Prediction.

PubMed

Atsumi, Noritoshi; Nakahira, Yuko; Tanaka, Eiichi; Iwamoto, Masami

2018-05-01

Impairments of executive brain function after traumatic brain injury (TBI) due to head impacts in traffic accidents need to be obviated. Finite element (FE) analyses with a human brain model facilitate understanding of the TBI mechanisms. However, conventional brain FE models do not suitably describe the anatomical structure in the deep brain, which is a critical region for executive brain function, and the material properties of brain parenchyma. In this study, for better TBI prediction, a novel brain FE model with anatomical structure in the deep brain was developed. The developed model comprises a constitutive model of brain parenchyma considering anisotropy and strain rate dependency. Validation was performed against postmortem human subject test data associated with brain deformation during head impact. Brain injury analyses were performed using head acceleration curves obtained from reconstruction analysis of rear-end collision with a human whole-body FE model. The difference in structure was found to affect the regions of strain concentration, while the difference in material model contributed to the peak strain value. The injury prediction result by the proposed model was consistent with the characteristics in the neuroimaging data of TBI patients due to traffic accidents.

[Psychoreactive disorders after motor vehicle accidents. Is it possible to predict the development of psychoreactive disorders after motor vehicle accidents?].

PubMed

Meyer, C; Dittrich, U; Küster, S; Markgraf, E; Hofmann, G O; Strauss, B

2005-12-01

The aim of this study was to assess common risk factors for the early development of psychoreactive disorders during traumatological treatment and to estimate their predictive potential. The sample consisted of 126 consecutive patients with accidental injuries recruited in an emergency room of the university hospital. We assessed this population 1 week (T1) and-on average-8 months following the accident (T2). At T1 34.5% of all patients indicated moderate and 26.4% strong symptoms of an acute stress disorder; 26.7% of all patients assessed at T2 suffered from severe post-traumatic symptoms. Linear regression analysis, using morbidity status at T2 as the dependent variable, allowed the explanation of 46.2% of the variance. The degree of early acute stress symptoms, injury, and pain intensity contributed significantly to the predictive model. We conclude that a substantial proportion of severely injured accident victims that will develop PTSD can be screened to some degree by the assessment of early stress disorder, the degree of their injury, and pain intensity, enabling secondary prevention of trauma-dependent symptomatology.

Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Large Transport Airplanes in Upset Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, John V.; Cunningham, Kevin; Fremaux, Charles M.; Shah, Gautam H.; Stewart, Eric C.; Rivers, Robert A.; Wilborn, James E.; Gato, William

2005-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, research has been in progress to develop aerodynamic modeling methods for simulations that accurately predict the flight dynamics characteristics of large transport airplanes in upset conditions. The motivation for this research stems from the recognition that simulation is a vital tool for addressing loss-of-control accidents, including applications to pilot training, accident reconstruction, and advanced control system analysis. The ultimate goal of this effort is to contribute to the reduction of the fatal accident rate due to loss-of-control. Research activities have involved accident analyses, wind tunnel testing, and piloted simulation. Results have shown that significant improvements in simulation fidelity for upset conditions, compared to current training simulations, can be achieved using state-of-the-art wind tunnel testing and aerodynamic modeling methods. This paper provides a summary of research completed to date and includes discussion on key technical results, lessons learned, and future research needs.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

The role of visual attention in predicting driving impairment in older adults.

PubMed

Hoffman, Lesa; McDowd, Joan M; Atchley, Paul; Dubinsky, Richard

2005-12-01

This study evaluated the role of visual attention (as measured by the DriverScan change detection task and the Useful Field of View Test [UFOV]) in the prediction of driving impairment in 155 adults between the ages of 63 and 87. In contrast to previous research, participants were not oversampled for visual impairment or history of automobile accidents. Although a history of automobile accidents within the past 3 years could not be predicted using any variable, driving performance in a low-fidelity simulator could be significantly predicted by performance in the change detection task and by the divided and selection attention subtests of the UFOV in structural equation models. The sensitivity and specificity of each measure in identifying at-risk drivers were also evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves.

Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran

PubMed Central

Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

2015-01-01

Background: Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. Objectives: In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. Patients and Methods: The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. Results: The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver’s license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict occurrence of accidents. Conclusions: As the results of this study show, different factors contribute to different driving behaviors and accidents. The broad scope of these factors links accidents to other social issues and damages. PMID:26421169

Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran.

PubMed

Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

2015-07-01

Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver's license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict occurrence of accidents. As the results of this study show, different factors contribute to different driving behaviors and accidents. The broad scope of these factors links accidents to other social issues and damages.

Rail-highway crossing accident prediction research results - FY80

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

This report presents the results of research performed at the : Transportation Systems Center (TSC) dealing with mathematical : methods of predicting accidents at rail-highway crossings. The : work consists of three parts : Part I - Revised DOT Accid...

Safety-in-numbers: Estimates based on a sample of pedestrian crossings in Norway.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2016-06-01

Safety-in-numbers denotes the tendency for the risk of accident for each road user to decline as the number of road users increases. Safety-in-numbers implies that a doubling of the number of road users will be associated with less than a doubling of the number of accidents. This paper investigates safety-in-numbers in 239 pedestrian crossings in Oslo and its suburbs. Accident prediction models were fitted by means of negative binomial regression. The models indicate a very strong safety-in-numbers effect. In the final model, the coefficients for traffic volume were 0.05 for motor vehicles, 0.07 for pedestrians and 0.12 for cyclists. The coefficient for motor vehicles implies that the number of accidents is almost independent of the number of motor vehicles. The safety-in-numbers effect found in this paper is stronger than reported in any other study dealing with safety-in-numbers. It should be noted that the model explained only 21% of the systematic variation in the number of accidents. It therefore cannot be ruled out that the results are influenced by omitted variable bias. Any such bias would, however, have to be very large to eliminate the safety-in-numbers effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

PubMed

Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

2016-03-01

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

PubMed

Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

2008-07-15

In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

Heat up and potential failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R

2015-01-01

In boiling water reactors, the steam dome, steam separators, and dryers above the core are comprised of approximately 100 tons of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. Historically, the upper internals have been modeled using severe accident codes with relatively simple approximations. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplified heat transfer characteristics, with no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, andmore » relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. This modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. The results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident; they are predicted to reach a high enough temperature such that they lose their structural integrity and relocate. The additional 100 tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Recent MELCOR and VICTORIA Fission Product Research at the NRC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bixler, N.E.; Cole, R.K.; Gauntt, R.O.

1999-01-21

The MELCOR and VICTORIA severe accident analysis codes, which were developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, are designed to estimate fission product releases during nuclear reactor accidents in light water reactors. MELCOR is an integrated plant-assessment code that models the key phenomena in adequate detail for risk-assessment purposes. VICTORIA is a more specialized fission- product code that provides detailed modeling of chemical reactions and aerosol processes under the high-temperature conditions encountered in the reactor coolant system during a severe reactor accident. This paper focuses on recent enhancements and assessments of the two codes inmore » the area of fission product chemistry modeling. Recently, a model for iodine chemistry in aqueous pools in the containment building was incorporated into the MELCOR code. The model calculates dissolution of iodine into the pool and releases of organic and inorganic iodine vapors from the pool into the containment atmosphere. The main purpose of this model is to evaluate the effect of long-term revolatilization of dissolved iodine. Inputs to the model include dose rate in the pool, the amount of chloride-containing polymer, such as Hypalon, and the amount of buffering agents in the containment. Model predictions are compared against the Radioiodine Test Facility (RTF) experiments conduced by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), specifically International Standard Problem 41. Improvements to VICTORIA's chemical reactions models were implemented as a result of recommendations from a peer review of VICTORIA that was completed last year. Specifically, an option is now included to model aerosols and deposited fission products as three condensed phases in addition to the original option of a single condensed phase. The three-condensed-phase model results in somewhat higher predicted fission product volatilities than does the single-condensed-phase model. Modeling of U02 thermochemistry was also improved, and results in better prediction of vaporization of uranium from fuel, which can react with released fission products to affect their volatility. This model also improves the prediction of fission product release rates from fuel. Finally, recent comparisons of MELCOR and VICTORIA with International Standard Problem 40 (STORM) data are presented. These comparisons focus on predicted therrnophoretic deposition, which is the dominant deposition mechanism. Sensitivity studies were performed with the codes to examine experimental and modeling uncertainties.« less

Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

PubMed

Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

2016-09-01

The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.

An Exercise Health Simulation Method Based on Integrated Human Thermophysiological Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaohui; Yu, Liang; Yang, Kaixing

2017-01-01

Research of healthy exercise has garnered a keen research for the past few years. It is known that participation in a regular exercise program can help improve various aspects of cardiovascular function and reduce the risk of suffering from illness. But some exercise accidents like dehydration, exertional heatstroke, and even sudden death need to be brought to attention. If these exercise accidents can be analyzed and predicted before they happened, it will be beneficial to alleviate or avoid disease or mortality. To achieve this objective, an exercise health simulation approach is proposed, in which an integrated human thermophysiological model consisting of human thermal regulation model and a nonlinear heart rate regulation model is reported. The human thermoregulatory mechanism as well as the heart rate response mechanism during exercise can be simulated. On the basis of the simulated physiological indicators, a fuzzy finite state machine is constructed to obtain the possible health transition sequence and predict the exercise health status. The experiment results show that our integrated exercise thermophysiological model can numerically simulate the thermal and physiological processes of the human body during exercise and the predicted exercise health transition sequence from finite state machine can be used in healthcare. PMID:28702074

Exploratory reconstructability analysis of accident TBI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwick, Martin; Carney, Nancy; Nettleton, Rosemary

2018-02-01

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are also reported.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this studymore » was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.« less

Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

How indicative is a self-reported driving behaviour profile of police registered traffic law offences?

PubMed

Martinussen, L M; Møller, M; Prato, C G; Haustein, S

2017-02-01

Although most motorised countries have experienced massive improvements in road safety over the last decades, human behaviour and differences in accident risk across sub-groups of drivers remains a key issue in the area of road safety. The identification of risk groups requires the identification of reliable predictors of safe or unsafe driving behaviour. Given this background, the aim of this study was to test whether driver sub-groups identified based on self-reported driving behaviour and skill differed in registered traffic law offences and accidents, and whether group membership was predictive of having traffic law offences. Sub-groups of drivers were identified based on the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and the Driver Skill Inventory (DSI), while traffic offences and accidents were register-based (Statistics Denmark). The participants (N=3683) were aged 18-84 years and randomly selected from the Danish Driving License Register. Results show that the driver sub-groups differed significantly in registered traffic offences but not in registered accidents. In a logistic regression analysis, the sub-group "Violating unsafe drivers" was found predictive of having a traffic offence, even when socio-demographic variables and exposure were controlled for. The most important predictive factor, however, was having a criminal record for non-traffic offences, while gender, living without a partner, and being self-employed also had a significant effect. The study confirms the use of the DBQ and DSI as suitable instruments for predicting traffic offences while also confirming previous results on accumulation of problematic behaviours across life contexts. The finding that driver sub-groups did not differ in registered accidents supports the recent research activities in finding and modelling surrogate safety measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

PubMed Central

Gokulakrishnan, P.

2015-01-01

In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios. PMID:26065014

Modeling injury rates as a function of industrialized versus on-site construction techniques.

PubMed

Rubio-Romero, J C; Suárez-Cebador, M; Abad, Jesús

2014-05-01

It is often predicted that the industrialization of building activities will lead to a reduction of accident rates in the construction sector, particularly as a result of switching activities from building sites to factories. However, to date no scientific research has provided objective quantitative results to back up this claim. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how industrialization affects the accident rate in different industrialized building systems in Spain. Our results revealed that the industrialized steel modular system presents the lowest accident rate, while the highest accident rate was recorded in the construction method with cast-in-place concrete. The lightweight construction system also presents a high accident rate. Accordingly, industrialized building systems cannot claim to be safer than traditional ones. The different types of "on-site work" seem to be the main variable which would explain the accident rates recorded in industrialized construction systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MELCOR Analysis of OSU Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR) Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Dhongik S.; Jo, HangJin; Fu, Wen

A multi-application small light water reactor (MASLWR) conceptual design was developed by Oregon State University (OSU) with emphasis on passive safety systems. The passive containment safety system employs condensation and natural circulation to achieve the necessary heat removal from the containment in case of postulated accidents. Containment condensation experiments at the MASLWR test facility at OSU are modeled and analyzed with MELCOR, a system-level reactor accident analysis computer code. The analysis assesses its ability to predict condensation heat transfer in the presence of noncondensable gas for accidents where high-energy steam is released into the containment. This work demonstrates MELCOR’s abilitymore » to predict the pressure-temperature response of the scaled containment. Our analysis indicates that the heat removal rates are underestimated in the experiment due to the limited locations of the thermocouples and applies corrections to these measurements by conducting integral energy analyses along with CFD simulation for confirmation. Furthermore, the corrected heat removal rate measurements and the MELCOR predictions on the heat removal rate from the containment show good agreement with the experimental data.« less

MELCOR Analysis of OSU Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR) Experiment

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Dhongik S.; Jo, HangJin; Fu, Wen; ...

2017-05-23

A multi-application small light water reactor (MASLWR) conceptual design was developed by Oregon State University (OSU) with emphasis on passive safety systems. The passive containment safety system employs condensation and natural circulation to achieve the necessary heat removal from the containment in case of postulated accidents. Containment condensation experiments at the MASLWR test facility at OSU are modeled and analyzed with MELCOR, a system-level reactor accident analysis computer code. The analysis assesses its ability to predict condensation heat transfer in the presence of noncondensable gas for accidents where high-energy steam is released into the containment. This work demonstrates MELCOR’s abilitymore » to predict the pressure-temperature response of the scaled containment. Our analysis indicates that the heat removal rates are underestimated in the experiment due to the limited locations of the thermocouples and applies corrections to these measurements by conducting integral energy analyses along with CFD simulation for confirmation. Furthermore, the corrected heat removal rate measurements and the MELCOR predictions on the heat removal rate from the containment show good agreement with the experimental data.« less

An Empirical Non-TNT Approach to Launch Vehicle Explosion Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackwood, James M.; Skinner, Troy; Richardson, Erin H.; Bangham, Michal E.

2015-01-01

In an effort to increase crew survivability from catastrophic explosions of Launch Vehicles (LV), a study was conducted to determine the best method for predicting LV explosion environments in the near field. After reviewing such methods as TNT equivalence, Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE) theory, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), it was determined that the best approach for this study was to assemble all available empirical data from full scale launch vehicle explosion tests and accidents. Approximately 25 accidents or full-scale tests were found that had some amount of measured blast wave, thermal, or fragment explosion environment characteristics. Blast wave overpressure was found to be much lower in the near field than predicted by most TNT equivalence methods. Additionally, fragments tended to be larger, fewer, and slower than expected if the driving force was from a high explosive type event. In light of these discoveries, a simple model for cryogenic rocket explosions is presented. Predictions from this model encompass all known applicable full scale launch vehicle explosion data. Finally, a brief description of on-going analysis and testing to further refine the launch vehicle explosion environment is discussed.

Validation of the CALSPAN gross-motion-simulation code with actually occurring injury patterns in aircraft accidents.

PubMed

Ballo, J M; Dunne, M J; McMeekin, R R

1978-01-01

Digital simulation of aircraft-accident kinematics has heretofore been used almost exclusively as a design tool to explore structural load limits, precalculate decelerative forces at various cabin stations, and describe the effect of protective devices in the crash environment. In an effort to determine the value of digital computer simulation of fatal aircraft accidents, a fatality involving an ejection-system failure (out-of-envelope ejection) was modeled, and the injuries actually incurred were compared to those predicted; good agreement was found. The simulation of fatal aircraft accidents is advantageous because of a well-defined endpoint (death), lack of therapeutic intervention, and a static anatomic situation that can be minutely investigated. Such simulation techniques are a useful tool in the study of experimental trauma.

MARTINS: A foam/film flow model for molten material relocation in HWRs with U-Al-fueled multi-tube assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalimullah

1994-03-01

Some special purpose heavy-water reactors (EM) are made of assemblies consisting of a number of coaxial aluminum-clad U-Al alloy fuel tubes and an outer Al sleeve surrounding the fuel tubes. The heavy water coolant flows in the annular gaps between the circular tubes. Analysis of severe accidents in such reactors requires a model for predicting the behavior of the fuel tubes as they melt and disrupt. This paper describes a detailed, mechanistic model for fuel tube heatup, melting, freezing, and molten material relocation, called MARTINS (Melting and Relocation of Tubes in Nuclear subassembly). The paper presents the modeling of themore » phenomena in MARTINS, and an application of the model to analysis of a reactivity insertion accident. Some models are being developed to compute gradual downward relocation of molten material at decay-heat power levels via candling along intact tubes, neglecting coolant vapor hydrodynamic forces on molten material. These models are inadequate for high power accident sequences involving significant hydrodynamic forces. These forces are included in MARTINS.« less

Dispersion and fate of ⁹⁰Sr in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: global fallout and the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

PubMed

Maderich, V; Jung, K T; Bezhenar, R; de With, G; Qiao, F; Casacuberta, N; Masque, P; Kim, Y H

2014-10-01

The 3D compartment model POSEIDON-R was applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of (90)Sr in the period 1945-2010 and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of (90)Sr due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident for the period 2011-2040. The contamination due to runoff of (90)Sr from terrestrial surfaces was taken into account using a generic predictive model. A dynamical food-chain model describes the transfer of (90)Sr to phytoplankton, zooplankton, molluscs, crustaceans, piscivorous and non-piscivorous fishes. Results of the simulations were compared with observation data on (90)Sr for the period 1955-2010 and the budget of (90)Sr activity was estimated. It was found that in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea the riverine influx was 1.5% of the ocean influx and it was important only locally. Calculated concentrations of (90)Sr in water, bottom sediment and marine organisms before and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. The concentration of (90)Sr in seawater would return to the background levels within one year after leakages were stopped. The model predicts that the concentration of (90)Sr in fish after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident shall return to the background concentrations only 2 years later due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web and specific accumulation of (90)Sr. The contribution of (90)Sr to the maximal dose rate due to the FDNPP accident was three orders of magnitude less than that due to (137)Cs, and thus well below the maximum effective dose limits for the public. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, Ian Edward

A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several additional fuels will also be analyzed, including uranium nitride (UN), uranium carbide (UC) and uranium silicide (U3Si2). Focusing on the system response in an accident scenario, an emphasis is placed on the fracture mechanics of the ceramic cladding by design the fuel rods to eliminate pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). The time to failure and how much of the fuel in the reactor fails with an advanced fuel design will be analyzed and compared to the current UO2/Zircaloy design using a full scale reactor model.

Test-Analysis Correlation for Space Shuttle External Tank Foam Impacting RCC Wing Leading Edge Component Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.

2008-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board recommended that NASA develop, validate, and maintain a modeling tool capable of predicting the damage threshold for debris impacts on the Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) wing leading edge and nosecap assembly. The results presented in this paper are one part of a multi-level approach that supported the development of the predictive tool used to recertify the shuttle for flight following the Columbia Accident. The assessment of predictive capability was largely based on test analysis comparisons for simpler component structures. This paper provides comparisons of finite element simulations with test data for external tank foam debris impacts onto 6-in. square RCC flat panels. Both quantitative displacement and qualitative damage assessment correlations are provided. The comparisons show good agreement and provided the Space Shuttle Program with confidence in the predictive tool.

New techniques on oil spill modelling applied in the Eastern Mediterranean sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Kokinou, Eleni; Alves, Tiago; Lardner, Robin

2016-04-01

Small or large oil spills resulting from accidents on oil and gas platforms or due to the maritime traffic comprise a major environmental threat for all marine and coastal systems, and they are responsible for huge economic losses concerning the human infrastructures and the tourism. This work aims at presenting the integration of oil-spill model, bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, geomorphological and geological data to assess the impact of oil spills in maritime regions such as bays, as well as in the open sea, carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea within the frame of NEREIDs, MEDESS-4MS and RAOP-Med EU projects. The MEDSLIK oil spill predictions are successfully combined with bathymetric analyses, the shoreline susceptibility and hazard mapping to predict the oil slick trajectories and the extend of the coastal areas affected. Based on MEDSLIK results, oil spill spreading and dispersion scenarios are produced both for non-mitigated and mitigated oil spills. MEDSLIK model considers three response combating methods of floating oil spills: a) mechanical recovery using skimmers or similar mechanisms; b) destruction by fire, c) use of dispersants or other bio-chemical means and deployment of booms. Shoreline susceptibility map can be compiled for the study areas based on the Environmental Susceptibility Index. The ESI classification considers a range of values between 1 and 9, with level 1 (ESI 1) representing areas of low susceptibility, impermeable to oil spilt during accidents, such as linear shorelines with rocky cliffs. In contrast, ESI 9 shores are highly vulnerable, and often coincide with natural reserves and special protected areas. Additionally, hazard maps of the maritime and coastal areas, possibly exposed to the danger on an oil spill, evaluate and categorize the hazard in levels from low to very high. This is important because a) Prior to an oil spill accident, hazard and shoreline susceptibility maps are made available to design preparedness and prevention plans in an effective way, b) After an oil spill accident, oil spill predictions can be combined with hazard maps to provide information on the oil spill dispersion and their impacts. This way, prevention plans can be directly modified at any time after the accident.

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.

2016-09-01

In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure ofmore » the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.« less

Summary of the BIOMOVS A4 scenario: Testing models of the air-pasture-cow milk pathway using Chernobyl fallout data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, S.R.; Hoffman, F.O.; Koehler, H.

1996-08-01

A unique opportunity to test dose assessment models arose after the Chernobyl reactor accident. During the passage of the contaminated plume, concentrations of {sup 131}I and {sup 137}Cs in air, pasture, and cow`s milk were collected at various sites in the northern hemisphere. Afterwards, contaminated pasture and milk samples were analyzed over time. Under the auspices of the Biospheric Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS), data from 13 sites for {sup 131}I and 10 sites for {sup 137}Cs were used to test model predictions for the air-pasture-cow milk pathway. Calculations were submitted for 23 models, 10 of which were quasi-steady state. Themore » others were time-dependent. Daily predictions and predictions of time-integrated concentration of {sup 131}I and {sup 137}Cs in pasture grass and milk for six months post-accident were calculated and compared with observed data. Testing against data from several locations over time for several steps in the air-to-milk pathway resulted in a better understanding of important processes and how they should be modeled. This model testing exercise showed both the strengths and weaknesses of the models and revealed the importance of testing all parts of dose assessment models whenever possible. 19 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs.« less

A Study of Airline Passenger Susceptibility to Atmospheric Turbulence Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Eric C.

2000-01-01

A simple, generic, simulation math model of a commercial airliner has been developed to study the susceptibility of unrestrained passengers to large, discrete gust encounters. The math model simulates the longitudinal motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin, (2) fuselage flexibility, (3) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, and (4) unsteady lift effects. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths of a simulated mountain rotor. A comparison of the model-predicted responses to data from three accidents indicates that the accelerations in actual accidents are sometimes much larger than the simulated gust encounters.

Do aggressive driving and negative emotional driving mediate the link between impulsiveness and risky driving among young Italian drivers?

PubMed

Smorti, Martina; Guarnieri, Silvia

2016-01-01

The present study examined the contribution of impulsiveness and aggressive and negative emotional driving to the prediction of traffic violations and accidents taking into account potential mediation effects. Three hundred and four young drivers completed self-report measures assessing impulsiveness, aggressive and negative emotional driving, driving violations, and accidents. Structural equation modeling was used to assess the direct and indirect effects of impulsiveness on violations and accidents among young drivers through aggressive and negative emotional driving. Impulsiveness only indirectly influenced drivers' violations on the road via both the behavioral and emotional states of the driver. On the contrary, impulsiveness was neither directly nor indirectly associated with traffic accidents. Therefore, impulsiveness modulates young drivers' behavioral and emotional states while driving, which in turn influences risky driving.

Perspectives on multifield models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banerjee, S.

1997-07-01

Multifield models for prediction of nuclear reactor thermalhydraulics are reviewed from the viewpoint of their structure and requirements for closure relationships. Their strengths and weaknesses are illustrated with examples, indicating that they are effective in predicting separated and distributed flow regimes, but have problems for flows with large oscillations. Needs for multifield models are also discussed in the context of reactor operations and accident simulations. The highest priorities for future developments appear to relate to closure relationships for three-dimensional multifield models with emphasis on those needed for calculations of phase separation and entrainment/de-entrainment in complex geometries.

Mechanism-based modeling of solute strengthening: application to thermal creep in Zr alloy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tome, Carlos; Wen, Wei; Capolungo, Laurent

2017-08-01

This report focuses on the development of a physics-based thermal creep model aiming to predict the behavior of Zr alloy under reactor accident condition. The current models used for this kind of simulations are mostly empirical in nature, based generally on fits to the experimental steady-state creep rates under different temperature and stress conditions, which has the following limitations. First, reactor accident conditions, such as RIA and LOCA, usually take place in short times and involve only the primary, not the steady-state creep behavior stage. Moreover, the empirical models cannot cover the conditions from normal operation to accident environments. Formore » example, Kombaiah and Murty [1,2] recently reported a transition between the low (n~4) and high (n~9) power law creep regimes in Zr alloys depending on the applied stress. Capturing such a behavior requires an accurate description of the mechanisms involved in the process. Therefore, a mechanism-based model that accounts for the evolution with time of microstructure is more appropriate and reliable for this kind of simulation.« less

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Cretì, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Marra, Palmalisa; Palermo, Francesco

2016-08-01

This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens.

ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.

2002-07-01

The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enablemore » much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)« less

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident: experiences of the Fukushima accident.

PubMed

Homma, T; Takahara, S; Kimura, M; Kinase, S

2015-06-01

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident are discussed in this paper based on the experiences following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The criteria for use in nuclear emergencies in the Japanese emergency preparedness guide were based on the recommendations of International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publications 60 and 63. Although the decision-making process for implementing protective actions relied heavily on computer-based predictive models prior to the accident, urgent protective actions, such as evacuation and sheltering, were implemented effectively based on the plant conditions. As there were no recommendations and criteria for long-term protective actions in the emergency preparedness guide, the recommendations of ICRP Publications 103, 109, and 111 were taken into consideration in determining the temporary relocation of inhabitants of heavily contaminated areas. These recommendations were very useful in deciding the emergency protective actions to take in the early stages of the Fukushima accident. However, some suggestions have been made for improving emergency preparedness and response in the early stages of a severe nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident: Atmospheric and oceanic impacts over the five years.

PubMed

Hirose, Katsumi

2016-06-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant (FDNPP) accident resulted in huge environmental and socioeconomic impacts to Japan. To document the actual environmental and socioeconomic effects of the FDNPP accident, we describe here atmospheric and marine contamination due to radionuclides released from the FDNPP accident using papers published during past five years, in which temporal and spatial variations of FDNPP-derived radionuclides in air, deposition and seawater and their mapping are recorded by local, regional and global monitoring activities. High radioactivity-contaminated area in land were formed by the dispersion of the radioactive cloud and precipitation, depending on land topography and local meteorological conditions, whereas extremely high concentrations of (131)I and radiocesium in seawater occurred due to direct release of radioactivity-contaminated stagnant water in addition to atmospheric deposition. For both of atmosphere and ocean, numerical model simulations, including local, regional and global-scale modeling, were extensively employed to evaluate source terms of the FDNPP-derived radionuclides from the monitoring data. These models also provided predictions of the dispersion and high deposition areas of the FDNPP-derived radionuclides. However, there are significant differences between the observed and simulated values. Then, the monitoring data would give a good opportunity to improve numerical modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability of the soil-to-plant radiocaesium transfer factor for Japanese soils predicted with soil and plant properties.

PubMed

Uematsu, Shinichiro; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve; Van Hees, May; Wannijn, Jean; Smolders, Erik

2016-03-01

Food chain contamination with radiocaesium (RCs) in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident calls for an analysis of the specific factors that control the RCs transfer. Here, soil-to-plant transfer factors (TF) of RCs for grass were predicted from the potassium concentration in soil solution (mK) and the Radiocaesium Interception Potential (RIP) of the soil using existing mechanistic models. The mK and RIP were (a) either measured for 37 topsoils collected from the Fukushima accident affected area or (b) predicted from the soil clay content and the soil exchangeable potassium content using the models that had been calibrated for European soils. An average ammonium concentration was used throughout in the prediction. The measured RIP ranged 14-fold and measured mK varied 37-fold among the soils. The measured RIP was lower than the RIP predicted from the soil clay content likely due to the lower content of weathered micas in the clay fraction of Japanese soils. Also the measured mK was lower than that predicted. As a result, the predicted TFs relying on the measured RIP and mK were, on average, about 22-fold larger than the TFs predicted using the European calibrated models. The geometric mean of the measured TFs for grass in the affected area (N = 82) was in the middle of both. The TFs were poorly related to soil classification classes, likely because soil fertility (mK) was obscuring the effects of the soil classification related to the soil mineralogy (RIP). This study suggests that, on average, Japanese soils are more vulnerable than European soils at equal soil clay and exchangeable K content. The affected regions will be targeted for refined model validation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Preliminary Investigation of Time Remaining Display on the Computer-based Emergency Operating Procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryono, T. J.; Gofuku, A.

2018-02-01

One of the important thing in the mitigation of accidents in nuclear power plant accidents is time management. The accidents should be resolved as soon as possible in order to prevent the core melting and the release of radioactive material to the environment. In this case, operators should follow the emergency operating procedure related with the accident, in step by step order and in allowable time. Nowadays, the advanced main control rooms are equipped with computer-based procedures (CBPs) which is make it easier for operators to do their tasks of monitoring and controlling the reactor. However, most of the CBPs do not include the time remaining display feature which informs operators of time available for them to execute procedure steps and warns them if the they reach the time limit. Furthermore, the feature will increase the awareness of operators about their current situation in the procedure. This paper investigates this issue. The simplified of emergency operating procedure (EOP) of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident of PWR plant is applied. In addition, the sequence of actions on each step of the procedure is modelled using multilevel flow modelling (MFM) and influenced propagation rule. The prediction of action time on each step is acquired based on similar case accidents and the Support Vector Regression. The derived time will be processed and then displayed on a CBP user interface.

Air oxidation of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range: Modeling for ASTEC code application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coindreau, O.; Duriez, C.; Ederli, S.

2010-10-01

Progress in the treatment of air oxidation of zirconium in severe accident (SA) codes are required for a reliable analysis of severe accidents involving air ingress. Air oxidation of zirconium can actually lead to accelerated core degradation and increased fission product release, especially for the highly-radiotoxic ruthenium. This paper presents a model to simulate air oxidation kinetics of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range. It is based on available experimental data, including separate-effect experiments performed at IRSN and at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The kinetic transition, named "breakaway", from a diffusion-controlled regime to an accelerated oxidation is taken into account in the modeling via a critical mass gain parameter. The progressive propagation of the locally initiated breakaway is modeled by a linear increase in oxidation rate with time. Finally, when breakaway propagation is completed, the oxidation rate stabilizes and the kinetics is modeled by a linear law. This new modeling is integrated in the severe accident code ASTEC, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS. Model predictions and experimental data from thermogravimetric results show good agreement for different air flow rates and for slow temperature transient conditions.

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Chien-tsug; Wetmore, Michael; Przetak, Robert

2006-01-01

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

2017-11-01

A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed model for different types of manufacturing equipment has been proved. There have been offered other research areas in terms of the presented subject matter.

Evaluation of methods for predicting rail-highway crossing hazards.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

The need for improvement at a rail/highway crossing typically is based on the Expected Accident Rate (EAR) in conjunction with other criteria carrying lesser weight. In recent years new models for assessing the need for improvements have been develop...

Predicting General Aviation Accident Frequency From Pilot Total Flight Hours

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Craig (2001) hypothesized a killing zonea range of pilot total flight hours (TFH) from about 50-350, over : which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk. The current work tested a number of candidate modeling : functions on eight ...

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Road traffic accidents and self-reported Portuguese car driver's attitudes, behaviors, and opinions: Are they related?

PubMed

Bon de Sousa, Teresa; Santos, Carolina; Mateus, Ceu; Areal, Alain; Trigoso, Jose; Nunes, Carla

2016-10-02

This study aims to characterize Portuguese car drivers in terms of demographic characteristics, driving experience, and attitudes, opinions, and behaviors concerning road traffic safety. Furthermore, associations between these characteristics and self-reported involvement in a road traffic accident as a driver in the last 3 years were analyzed. A final goal was to develop a final predictive model of the risk of suffering a road traffic accident. A cross-sectional analytic study was developed, based on a convenience sample of 612 car drivers. A questionnaire was applied by trained interviewers, embracing various topics related to road safety such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, phone use while driving, speeding, use of advanced driver assistance systems, and the transport infrastructure and environment (European Project SARTRE 4, Portuguese version). From the 52 initial questions, 19 variables were selected through principal component analysis. Then, and in addition to the usual descriptive measures, logistic binary regression models were used in order to describe associations and to develop a predictive model of being involved in a road traffic accident. Of the 612 car drivers, 37.3% (228) reported being involved in a road traffic accident with damage or injury in the past 3 years. In this group, the majority were male, older than 65, with no children, not employed, and living in an urban area. In the multivariate model, several factors were identified: being widowed (vs. single; odds ratio [OR] = 3.478, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.159-10.434); living in a suburban area (vs. a rural area; OR = 5.023, 95% CI, 2.260-11.166); having been checked for alcohol once in the last 3 years (vs. not checked; OR = 3.124, 95% CI, 2.040-4,783); and seldom drinking an energetic beverage such as coffee when tired (vs. always do; OR = 6.822, 95% CI, 2.619-17.769) all suffered a higher risk of being involved in a car accident. The results obtained with regard to behavioral factors meet the majority of the risk factors associated with car accidents referred to in the literature. This study highlights the relation of relatively minor accidents (the majority with no injuries) with an urban (or semi-urban) context and involving older drivers. These accidents are not usually the focus of road safety literature (mainly death and serious health loss) but, in addition to the economic costs involved, they can have a huge impact on road safety (e.g., pedestrian). Specifically, the following interventions can be proposed: more detailed clinical examinations to identify real competencies to drive especially in older drivers (active aging can constitute a new challenge in road safety and new paradigms can arise) and education campaigns on how to cope with fatigue. Future studies in large samples and not based on self-reported behaviors should be developed.

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines

PubMed Central

Dindarloo, Saeid R.; Pollard, Jonisha P.; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-01-01

Introduction Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. Methods A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Results Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5 years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. Conclusions The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Practical application Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. PMID:27620937

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

PubMed

Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-09-01

Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Rail-highway crossing accident prediction analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report contains technical results that have been produced in a study : to revise and update the DOT rail-highway crossing resource allocation : procedure. This work has resulted in new accident prediction and severity : formulas, a modified and ...

Private Sector Involvement in Urban Transportation: Case Studies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-07-01

This report describes the development of formulas which predict the severity of accidents at public rail-highway crossings. They employ the previously developed DOT accident prediction formula, U.S. DOT-AAR National Rail-Highway Crossing Inventory, a...

Core thermal response and hydrogen generation of the N Reactor hydrogen mitigation design basis accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, M.D.; Lombardo, N.J.; Heard, F.J.

1988-04-01

Calculations were performed to determine core heatup, core damage, and subsequent hydrogen production of a hypothetical loss-of-cooling accident at the Department of Energy's N Reactor. The thermal transient response of the reactor core was solved using the TRUMP-BD computer program. Estimates of whole-core thermal damage and hydrogen production were made by weighting the results of multiple half-length pressure tube simulations at various power levels. The Baker-Just and Wilson parabolic rate equations for the metal-water chemical reactions modeled the key phenomena of chemical energy and hydrogen evolution. Unlimited steam was assumed available for continuous oxidation of exposed Zircaloy-2 surfaces and formore » uranium metal with fuel cladding beyond the failure temperature (1038 C). Intact fuel geometry was modeled. Maximum fuel temperatures (1181 C) in the cooled central regions of the core were predicted to occur one-half hour into the accident scenario. Maximum fuel temperatures of 1447 C occurred in the core GSCS-regions at the end of the 10-h transient. After 10-h 26% of the fuel inventory was predicted to have failed. Peak hydrogen evolution equaled 42 g/s, while 10-h integrated hydrogen evolution equaled 167 kg. 12 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.« less

The predictive validity of safety climate.

PubMed

Johnson, Stephen E

2007-01-01

Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.

New Nuclear Emergency Prognosis system in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Ha; Jeong, Seung-Young; Park, Sang-Hyun; Lee, Kwan-Hee

2016-04-01

This paper reviews the status of assessment and prognosis system for nuclear emergency response in Korea, especially atmospheric dispersion model. The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) performs the regulation and radiological emergency preparedness of the nuclear facilities and radiation utilizations. Also, KINS has set up the "Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Plan" and the associated procedures such as an emergency response manual in consideration of the IAEA Safety Standards GS-R-2, GS-G-2.0, and GS-G-2.1. The Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Center (RETAC) organized in an emergency situation provides the technical advice on radiological emergency response. The "Atomic Computerized Technical Advisory System for nuclear emergency" (AtomCARE) has been developed to implement assessment and prognosis by RETAC. KINS developed Accident Dose Assessment and Monitoring (ADAMO) system in 2015 to reflect the lessons learned from Fukushima accident. It incorporates (1) the dose assessment on the entire Korean peninsula, Asia region, and global region, (2) multi-units accident assessment (3) applying new methodology of dose rate assessment and the source term estimation with inverse modeling, (4) dose assessment and monitoring with the environmental measurements result. The ADAMO is the renovated version of current FADAS of AtomCARE. The ADAMO increases the accuracy of the radioactive material dispersion with applying the LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 1.5 km) and RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 12km) of weather prediction data, and performing the data assimilation of automatic weather system (AWS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and data from the weather observation tower at NPP site. The prediction model of the radiological material dispersion is based on the set of the Lagrangian Particle model and Lagrangian Puff model. The dose estimation methodology incorporate the dose assessment methods of IAEA, WHO, and USNRC. The dose assessment result will express on the GIS (GIS (Geographic Information System) to provide to the local- governments and the central government. Acknowledgements This research has been supported by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission [Reference No.1305020-0315-SB110

Meteorology and Wake Vortex Influence on American Airlines FL-587 Accident

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proctor, Fred H.; Hamilton, David W.; Rutishauser, David K.; Switzer, George F.

2004-01-01

The atmospheric environment surrounding the crash of American Airlines Flight 587 is investigated. Examined are evidence for any unusual atmospheric conditions and the potential for encounters with aircraft wake vortices. Computer simulations are carried out with two different vortex prediction models and a Large Eddy Simulation model. Wind models are proposed for studying aircraft and pilot response to the wake vortex encounter.

Thermophysical properties of liquid UO2, ZrO2 and corium by molecular dynamics and predictive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Woong Kee; Shim, Ji Hoon; Kaviany, Massoud

2017-08-01

Predicting the fate of accident-melted nuclear fuel-cladding requires the understanding of the thermophysical properties which are lacking or have large scatter due to high-temperature experimental challenges. Using equilibrium classical molecular dynamics (MD), we predict the properties of melted UO2 and ZrO2 and compare them with the available experimental data and the predictive models. The existing interatomic potential models have been developed mainly for the polymorphic solid phases of these oxides, so they cannot be used to predict all the properties accurately. We compare and decipher the distinctions of those MD predictions using the specific property-related autocorrelation decays. The predicted properties are density, specific heat, heat of fusion, compressibility, viscosity, surface tension, and the molecular and electronic thermal conductivities. After the comparisons, we provide readily usable temperature-dependent correlations (including UO2-ZrO2 compounds, i.e. corium melt).

The clinical course over the first year of whiplash associated disorders (WAD): pain-related disability predicts outcome in a mildly affected sample.

PubMed

Åsenlöf, Pernilla; Bring, Annika; Söderlund, Anne

2013-12-21

Different recovery patterns are reported for those befallen a whip-lash injury, but little is known about the variability within subgroups. The aims were (1) to compare a self-selected mildly affected sample (MILD) with a self-selected moderately to severely affected sample (MOD/SEV) with regard to background characteristics and pain-related disability, pain intensity, functional self-efficacy, fear of movement/(re)injury, pain catastrophising, post-traumatic stress symptoms in the acute stage (at baseline), (2) to study the development over the first year after the accident for the above listed clinical variables in the MILD sample, and (3) to study the validity of a prediction model including baseline levels of clinical variables on pain-related disability one year after baseline assessments. The study had a prospective and correlative design. Ninety-eight participants were consecutively selected. Inclusion criteria; age 18 to 65 years, WAD grade I-II, Swedish language skills, and subjective report of not being in need of treatment due to mild symptoms. A multivariate linear regression model was applied for the prediction analysis. The MILD sample was less affected in all study variables compared to the MOD/SEV sample. Pain-related disability, pain catastrophising, and post-traumatic stress symptoms decreased over the first year after the accident, whereas functional self-efficacy and fear of movement/(re)injury increased. Pain intensity was stable. Pain-related disability at baseline emerged as the only statistically significant predictor of pain-related disability one year after the accident (Adj r² = 0.67). A good prognosis over the first year is expected for the majority of individuals with WAD grade I or II who decline treatment due to mild symptoms. The prediction model was not valid in the MILD sample except for the contribution of pain-related disability. An implication is that early observations of individuals with elevated levels of pain-related disability are warranted, although they may decline treatment.

Summary of the Department of Transportation Rail-Highway Crossing Accident Prediction Formulas and Resource Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-09-01

The Highway Safety Acts of 1973 and 1976, and the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1978, provide funding authorizations to individual states to improve safety at public rail-highway crossings. The installation of active motorist warning devic...

A Method for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Air Traffic Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Bonesteel, Charles

1998-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety and operational impacts of emerging air traffic technologies. The approach integrates traditional reliability models of the system infrastructure with models that analyze the environment within which the system operates, and models of how the system responds to different scenarios. Products of the analysis include safety measures such as predicted incident rates, predicted accident statistics, and false alarm rates; and operational availability data. The report demonstrates the methodology with an analysis of the operation of the Center-TRACON Automation System at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey.

PubMed

Erdogan, Saffet

2009-10-01

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey. Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P<0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses. Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P<0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R(2) values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R(2) for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions. Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.

Qualification of CASMO5 / SIMULATE-3K against the SPERT-III E-core cold start-up experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grandi, G.; Moberg, L.

SIMULATE-3K is a three-dimensional kinetic code applicable to LWR Reactivity Initiated Accidents. S3K has been used to calculate several international recognized benchmarks. However, the feedback models in the benchmark exercises are different from the feedback models that SIMULATE-3K uses for LWR reactors. For this reason, it is worth comparing the SIMULATE-3K capabilities for Reactivity Initiated Accidents against kinetic experiments. The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test III was a pressurized-water, nuclear-research facility constructed to analyze the reactor kinetic behavior under initial conditions similar to those of commercial LWRs. The SPERT III E-core resembles a PWR in terms of fuel type, moderator,more » coolant flow rate, and system pressure. The initial test conditions (power, core flow, system pressure, core inlet temperature) are representative of cold start-up, hot start-up, hot standby, and hot full power. The qualification of S3K against the SPERT III E-core measurements is an ongoing work at Studsvik. In this paper, the results for the 30 cold start-up tests are presented. The results show good agreement with the experiments for the reactivity initiated accident main parameters: peak power, energy release and compensated reactivity. Predicted and measured peak powers differ at most by 13%. Measured and predicted reactivity compensations at the time of the peak power differ less than 0.01 $. Predicted and measured energy release differ at most by 13%. All differences are within the experimental uncertainty. (authors)« less

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

PubMed

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Model of relationship between personal factors and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) management toward unsafe actions: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamtinningrum, M. D. P.; Partiwi, S. G.; Dewi, D. S.

2018-04-01

One indicator of a good company is when a safe business environment can be well maintained. In this work environment, the number of industrial accidents is minimum. Industrial accidents are the incidents that occurred in the workplace, especially in industrial area. Industrial accidents are generally caused by two main reasons, unsafe actions & unsafe conditions. Some research indicates that unsafe actions significantly affect the incidence in the workplace. Unsafe action is a failure to follow the proper procedures and requirements, which is led into accidents. From several previous studies it can be concluded that personal factors & OHS management are two most influential factors that affect unsafe actions. However, their relationship in influencing unsafe actions is not fully understood. Based on this reason the authors want to investigate the effect of personal factors and OHS management toward unsafe actions to workers. For this purpose, a company is selected as a case study. In this research, analyses were done by using univariate test, bivariate correlation and linear regression. The results of this study proves that two indicators of personal factors (i.e. knowledge of OHS & OHS training) and OHS management have significant effect on unsafe actions but in negative direction, while two indicators of personal factors (i.e. workload & fatigue) have positive direction of effect on unsafe actions. In addition, this research has developed a mathematical model that can be used to calculate and predict the value of unsafe actions performed by the worker. By using this model, the company will able to take preventive actions toward unsafe actions to reduce workers accidents.

Pretest Round Robin Analysis of 1:4-Scale Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HESSHEIMER,MICHAEL F.; LUK,VINCENT K.; KLAMERUS,ERIC W.

The purpose of the program is to investigate the response of representative scale models of nuclear containment to pressure loading beyond the design basis accident and to compare analytical predictions to measured behavior. This objective is accomplished by conducting static, pneumatic overpressurization tests of scale models at ambient temperature. This research program consists of testing two scale models: a steel containment vessel (SCV) model (tested in 1996) and a prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV) model, which is the subject of this paper.

Application of the WEPS and SWEEP models to non-agricultural disturbed lands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wind erosion not only affects agricultural productivity but also soil, air, and water quality. Dust and specifically particulate matter = 10 µm (PM-10) has adverse effects on respiratory health and also reduces visibility along roadways, resulting in auto accidents. The Wind Erosion Prediction Syste...

Analysis and prediction of spatiotemporal impact of traffic incidents for better mobility and safety in transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

The goal of this research is to develop a machine learning framework to predict the spatiotemporal impact : of traffic accidents on the upstream traffic and surrounding region. The main objective of the framework : is, given a road accident, to forec...

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl NPP accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

2013-03-01

The coupled model LMDzORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5°×1.25°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.45°×0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels, respectively, extending up to mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 vertical levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The best choice for the model validation was the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986. This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. However, the best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to Atlas), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of the levels in conjunction with the uncertainty of the source term. Moreover, the ecological half-life of 137Cs in the atmosphere after the accident ranged between 6 and 9 days, which is in good accordance to what previously reported and in the same range with the recent accident in Japan. The high response of LMDzORINCA model for 137Cs reinforces the importance of atmospheric modeling in emergency cases to gather information for protecting the population from the adverse effects of radiation.

Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

2013-07-01

The coupled model LMDZORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5° × 1.27°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.66° × 0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels respectively, extending up to the mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The model is validated with the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986 using the emission inventory from Brandt et al. (2002). This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. The best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to De Cort et al., 1998), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of the levels in conjunction with the uncertainty of the source term. Moreover, the ecological half-life of 137Cs in the atmosphere after the accident ranged between 6 and 9 days, which is in good accordance to what previously reported and in the same range with the recent accident in Japan. The high response of LMDZORINCA model for 137Cs reinforces the importance of atmospheric modelling in emergency cases to gather information for protecting the population from the adverse effects of radiation.

Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

2003-01-01

Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

2012-04-01

Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

Structural response of 1/20-scale models of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor to a simulated hypothetical core-disruptive accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romander, C M; Cagliostro, D J

Five experiments were performed to help evaluate the structural integrity of the reactor vessel and head design and to verify code predictions. In the first experiment (SM 1), a detailed model of the head was loaded statically to determine its stiffness. In the remaining four experiments (SM 2 to SM 5), models of the vessel and head were loaded dynamically under a simulated 661 MW-s hypothetical core disruptive accident (HCDA). Models SM 2 to SM 4, each of increasing complexity, systematically showed the effects of upper internals structures, a thermal liner, core support platform, and torospherical bottom on vessel response.more » Model SM 5, identical to SM 4 but more heavily instrumented, demonstrated experimental reproducibility and provided more comprehensive data. The models consisted of a Ni 200 vessel and core barrel, a head with shielding and simulated component masses, and an upper internals structure (UIS).« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

2016-11-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

Creep failure of a reactor pressure vessel lower head under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilch, M.M.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Chu, T.Y.

A severe accident in a nuclear power plant could result in the relocation of large quantities of molten core material onto the lower head of he reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In the absence of inherent cooling mechanisms, failure of the RPV ultimately becomes possible under the combined effects of system pressure and the thermal heat-up of the lower head. Sandia National Laboratories has performed seven experiments at 1:5th scale simulating creep failure of a RPV lower head. This paper describes a modeling program that complements the experimental program. Analyses have been performed using the general-purpose finite-element code ABAQUS-5.6. In ordermore » to make ABAQUS solve the specific problem at hand, a material constitutive model that utilizes temperature dependent properties has been developed and attached to ABAQUS-executable through its UMAT utility. Analyses of the LHF-1 experiment predict instability-type failure. Predicted strains are delayed relative to the observed strain histories. Parametric variations on either the yield stress, creep rate, or both (within the range of material property data) can bring predictions into agreement with experiment. The analysis indicates that it is necessary to conduct material property tests on the actual material used in the experimental program. The constitutive model employed in the present analyses is the subject of a separate publication.« less

Physiologic, demographic and mechanistic factors predicting New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in motor vehicle accident victims.

PubMed

Staff, T; Eken, T; Wik, L; Røislien, J; Søvik, S

2014-01-01

Current literature on motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) has few reports regarding field factors that predict the degree of injury. Also, studies of mechanistic factors rarely consider concurrent predictive effects of on-scene patient physiology. The New Injury Severity Score (NISS) has previously been found to correlate with mortality, need for ICU admission, length of hospital stay, and functional recovery after trauma. To potentially increase future precision of trauma triage, we assessed how the NISS is associated with physiologic, demographic and mechanistic variables from the accident site. Using mixed-model linear regression analyses, we explored the association between NISS and pre-hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Revised Trauma Score (RTS) categories of respiratory rate (RR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), gender, age, subject position in the vehicle, seatbelt use, airbag deployment, and the estimated squared change in vehicle velocity on impact ((Δv)(2)). Missing values were handled with multiple imputation. We included 190 accidents with 353 dead or injured subjects (mean NISS 17, median NISS 8, IQR 1-27). For the 307 subjects in front-impact MVAs, the mean increase in NISS was -2.58 per GCS point, -2.52 per RR category level, -2.77 per SBP category level, -1.08 for male gender, 0.18 per year of age, 4.98 for driver vs. rear passengers, 4.83 for no seatbelt use, 13.52 for indeterminable seatbelt use, 5.07 for no airbag deployment, and 0.0003 per (km/h)(2) velocity change (all p<0.002). This study in victims of MVAs demonstrated that injury severity (NISS) was concurrently and independently predicted by poor pre-hospital physiologic status, increasing age and female gender, and several mechanistic measures of localised and generalised trauma energy. Our findings underscore the need for precise information from the site of trauma, to reduce undertriage, target diagnostic efforts, and anticipate need for high-level care and rehabilitative resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive functioning, subjective memory complaints and risky behaviour predict minor home injuries in elderly.

PubMed

Spano, Giuseppina; O Caffò, Alessandro; Bosco, Andrea

2017-11-27

Home accidents are one of the major causes of death, particularly in older people, young children and women. The first aim of this study was to explore the role of subjective memory complaints, cognitive functioning and risky behaviour as predictors of home injuries occurred in a year in a sample of healthy Italian older adults. The second aim was to investigate the role of risky behaviour as a mediator in the relationship between subjective and objective cognitive functioning and home injuries. One hundred thirty-three community-dwelling older people from southern Italy were administered a battery of tests to evaluate cognitive functioning, subjective memory complaints, and risky behaviour during home activities. Risky behaviour was evaluated using the Domestic Behaviour Questionnaire, created specifically for this purpose. The number of home injuries was recorded for a year throughout monthly telephone interviews. A path analysis was performed to test the following model: cognitive functioning and subjective memory complaints directly influence risky behaviour and number of accidents over a year; risky behaviour mediates the impact of cognitive functioning and subjective memory on number of accidents over a year. Path analysis confirmed the model tested except the role of risky behaviour as a mediator between cognitive functioning and home accidents. Risky behaviour could represent a further risk factor in cognitively intact older adults with subjective memory complaints. The assessment of both cognition and behaviour in elderly can make a valuable contribution in preventing home accidents in elderly.

Code manual for CONTAIN 2.0: A computer code for nuclear reactor containment analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murata, K.K.; Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.

1997-12-01

The CONTAIN 2.0 computer code is an integrated analysis tool used for predicting the physical conditions, chemical compositions, and distributions of radiological materials inside a containment building following the release of material from the primary system in a light-water reactor accident. It can also predict the source term to the environment. CONTAIN 2.0 is intended to replace the earlier CONTAIN 1.12, which was released in 1991. The purpose of this Code Manual is to provide full documentation of the features and models in CONTAIN 2.0. Besides complete descriptions of the models, this Code Manual provides a complete description of themore » input and output from the code. CONTAIN 2.0 is a highly flexible and modular code that can run problems that are either quite simple or highly complex. An important aspect of CONTAIN is that the interactions among thermal-hydraulic phenomena, aerosol behavior, and fission product behavior are taken into account. The code includes atmospheric models for steam/air thermodynamics, intercell flows, condensation/evaporation on structures and aerosols, aerosol behavior, and gas combustion. It also includes models for reactor cavity phenomena such as core-concrete interactions and coolant pool boiling. Heat conduction in structures, fission product decay and transport, radioactive decay heating, and the thermal-hydraulic and fission product decontamination effects of engineered safety features are also modeled. To the extent possible, the best available models for severe accident phenomena have been incorporated into CONTAIN, but it is intrinsic to the nature of accident analysis that significant uncertainty exists regarding numerous phenomena. In those cases, sensitivity studies can be performed with CONTAIN by means of user-specified input parameters. Thus, the code can be viewed as a tool designed to assist the knowledge reactor safety analyst in evaluating the consequences of specific modeling assumptions.« less

Transient analysis of ”2 inch Direct Vessel Injection line break” in SPES-2 facility by using TRACE code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, S.; Lombardo, C.; Moscato, I.; Polidori, M.; Vella, G.

2015-11-01

In the past few decades a lot of theoretical and experimental researches have been done to understand the physical phenomena characterizing nuclear accidents. In particular, after the Three Miles Island accident, several reactors have been designed to handle successfully LOCA events. This paper presents a comparison between experimental and numerical results obtained for the “2 inch Direct Vessel Injection line break” in SPES-2. This facility is an integral test facility built in Piacenza at the SIET laboratories and simulating the primary circuit, the relevant parts of the secondary circuits and the passive safety systems typical of the AP600 nuclear power plant. The numerical analysis here presented was performed by using TRACE and CATHARE thermal-hydraulic codes with the purpose of evaluating their prediction capability. The main results show that the TRACE model well predicts the overall behaviour of the plant during the transient, in particular it is able to simulate the principal thermal-hydraulic phenomena related to all passive safety systems. The performance of the presented CATHARE noding has suggested some possible improvements of the model.

Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

2005-12-01

The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

Testing prediction capabilities of an 131I terrestrial transport model by using measurements collected at the Hanford nuclear facility.

PubMed

Apostoaei, A Iulian

2005-05-01

A model describing transport of 131I in the environment was developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., for assessment of radiation doses and excess lifetime risk from 131I atmospheric releases from Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in southeast Idaho. This paper describes the results of an exercise designed to test the reliability of this model and to identify the main sources of uncertainty in doses and risks estimated by this model. The testing of the model was based on materials published by the International Atomic Energy Agency BIOMASS program, specifically environmental data collected after the release into atmosphere of 63 curies of 131I during 2-5 September 1963, after an accident at the Hanford PUREX Chemical Separations Plant, in Hanford, Washington. Measurements of activity in air, vegetation, and milk were collected in nine counties around Hanford during the first couple of months after the accident. The activity of 131I in the thyroid glands of two children was measured 47 d after the accident. The model developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., was used to estimate concentrations of 131I in environmental media, thyroid doses for the general population, and the activity of 131I in thyroid glands of the two children. Predicted concentrations of 131I in pasture grass and milk and thyroid doses were compared with similar estimates produced by other modelers. The SENES model was also used to estimate excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer due to the September 1963 releases of 131I from Hanford. The SENES model was first calibrated and then applied to all locations of interest around Hanford without fitting the model parameters to a given location. Predictions showed that the SENES model reproduces satisfactorily the time-dependent and the time-integrated measured concentrations in vegetation and milk, and provides reliable estimates of 131I activity in thyroids of children. SENES model generated concentrations of 131I closer to observed concentrations, as compared to the predictions produced with other models. The inter-model comparison showed that variation of thyroid doses among all participating models (SENES model included) was a factor of 3 for the general population, but a factor of 10 for the two studied children. As opposed to other models, SENES model allows a complete analysis of uncertainties in every predicted quantity, including estimated thyroid doses and risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainties in the risk-per-unit-dose and the dose-per-unit-intake coefficients are major contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated lifetime risk and thyroid dose, respectively. The largest contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated concentration in milk are the feed-to-milk transfer factor (F(m)), the dry deposition velocity (V(d)), and the mass interception factor (r/Y)dry for the elemental form of iodine (I2). Exposure to the 1963 PUREX/Hanford accident produced low doses and risks for people living at the studied locations. The upper 97.5th percentile of the excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for the most extreme situations is about 10(-4). Measurements in pasture grass and milk at all locations around Hanford indicate a very low transfer of 131I from pasture to cow's milk (e.g., a feed-to-milk transfer coefficient, F(m), for commercial cows of about 0.0022 d L(-1)). These values are towards the low end of F(m) values measured elsewhere and they are low compared to the F(m) values used in other dose reconstruction studies, including the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction.

Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

PubMed Central

Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

The clinical course over the first year of Whiplash Associated Disorders (WAD): pain-related disability predicts outcome in a mildly affected sample

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Different recovery patterns are reported for those befallen a whip-lash injury, but little is known about the variability within subgroups. The aims were (1) to compare a self-selected mildly affected sample (MILD) with a self-selected moderately to severely affected sample (MOD/SEV) with regard to background characteristics and pain-related disability, pain intensity, functional self-efficacy, fear of movement/(re)injury, pain catastrophising, post-traumatic stress symptoms in the acute stage (at baseline), (2) to study the development over the first year after the accident for the above listed clinical variables in the MILD sample, and (3) to study the validity of a prediction model including baseline levels of clinical variables on pain-related disability one year after baseline assessments. Methods The study had a prospective and correlative design. Ninety-eight participants were consecutively selected. Inclusion criteria; age 18 to 65 years, WAD grade I-II, Swedish language skills, and subjective report of not being in need of treatment due to mild symptoms. A multivariate linear regression model was applied for the prediction analysis. Results The MILD sample was less affected in all study variables compared to the MOD/SEV sample. Pain-related disability, pain catastrophising, and post-traumatic stress symptoms decreased over the first year after the accident, whereas functional self-efficacy and fear of movement/(re)injury increased. Pain intensity was stable. Pain-related disability at baseline emerged as the only statistically significant predictor of pain-related disability one year after the accident (Adj r2 = 0.67). Conclusion A good prognosis over the first year is expected for the majority of individuals with WAD grade I or II who decline treatment due to mild symptoms. The prediction model was not valid in the MILD sample except for the contribution of pain-related disability. An implication is that early observations of individuals with elevated levels of pain-related disability are warranted, although they may decline treatment. PMID:24359208

Methods of measuring radioactivity in the environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaksson, Mats

In this thesis a variety of sampling methods have been utilised to assess the amount of deposited activity, mainly of 137Cs, from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests. Starting with the Chernobyl accident in 1986 sampling of air and rain was used to determine the composition and amount of radioactive debris from this accident, brought to southern Sweden by the weather systems. The resulting deposition and its removal from urban areas was than studied through measurements on sewage sludge and water. The main part of the thesis considers methods of determining the amount of radiocaesium in the ground through soil sampling. In connection with soil sampling a method of optimising the sampling procedure has been developed and tested in the areas of Sweden which have a comparatively high amount of 137Cs from the Chernobyl accident. This method was then used in a survey of the activity in soil in Lund and Skane, divided between nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. By comparing the results from this survey with deposition calculated from precipitation measurements it was found possible to predict the deposition pattern over Skane for both nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In addition, the vertical distribution of 137Cs has been modelled and the temporal variation of the depth distribution has been described.

Development and validation of a human biomechanical model for rib fracture and thorax injuries in blunt impact.

PubMed

Cai, Zhihua; Lan, Fengchong; Chen, Jiqing

2015-07-01

From 1990 to approximately 50,000-120,000 people die annually of road traffic accidents in China. Traffic accidents are the main cause of death of Chinese adults aged 15-45 years. This study aimed to determine the biomechanical response and injury tolerance of the human body in traffic accidents. The subject was a 35-year-old male with a height of 170 cm, weight of 70 kg and Chinese characteristics at the 50th percentile. Geometry was generated by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. A human-body biomechanical model was then developed. The model featured in great detail the main anatomical characteristics of skeletal tissues, soft tissues and internal organs, including the head, neck, shoulder, thoracic cage, abdomen, spine, pelvis, pleurae and lungs, heart, aorta, arms, legs, and other muscle tissues and skeletons. The material properties of all tissues in the human body model were obtained from the literature. Material properties were developed in the LS-DYNA code to simulate the mechanical behaviour of the biological tissues in the human body. The model was validated against cadaver responses to frontal and side impact. The predicted model response reasonably agreed with the experimental data, and the model can further be used to evaluate thoracic injury in real-world crashes. We believe that the transportation industry can use numerical models in the future to simultaneously reduce physical testing and improve automotive safety.

Crash risk and aberrant driving behaviors among bus drivers: the role of personality and attitudes towards traffic safety.

PubMed

Mallia, Luca; Lazuras, Lambros; Violani, Cristiano; Lucidi, Fabio

2015-06-01

Several studies have shown that personality traits and attitudes toward traffic safety predict aberrant driving behaviors and crash involvement. However, this process has not been adequately investigated in professional drivers, such as bus drivers. The present study used a personality-attitudes model to assess whether personality traits predicted aberrant self-reported driving behaviors (driving violations, lapses, and errors) both directly and indirectly, through the effects of attitudes towards traffic safety in a large sample of bus drivers. Additionally, the relationship between aberrant self-reported driving behaviors and crash risk was also assessed. Three hundred and one bus drivers (mean age=39.1, SD=10.7 years) completed a structured and anonymous questionnaire measuring personality traits, attitudes toward traffic safety, self-reported aberrant driving behaviors (i.e., errors, lapses, and traffic violations), and accident risk in the last 12 months. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that personality traits were associated to aberrant driving behaviors both directly and indirectly. In particular altruism, excitement seeking, and normlessness directly predicted bus drivers' attitudes toward traffic safety which, in turn, were negatively associated with the three types of self-reported aberrant driving behaviors. Personality traits relevant to emotionality directly predicted bus drivers' aberrant driving behaviors, without any mediation of attitudes. Finally, only self-reported violations were related to bus drivers' accident risk. The present findings suggest that the hypothesized personality-attitudes model accounts for aberrant driving behaviors in bus drivers, and provide the empirical basis for evidence-based road safety interventions in the context of public transport. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

2018-03-05

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

2018-01-01

In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

PubMed

Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

2017-06-01

New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

PubMed

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-09-01

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013). During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran

PubMed Central

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-01-01

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009–2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014–2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009–2013). Results: During 2009–2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85–12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26–8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians’ deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths. PMID:26435824

Improvement of operational prediction system applied to the oil spill prediction in the Yellow Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C.; Cho, Y.; Choi, B.; Jung, K.

2012-12-01

Multi-nested operational prediction system for the Yellow Sea (YS) has been developed to predict the movement of oil spill. Drifter trajectory simulations were performed to predict the path of the oil spill of the MV Hebei Spirit accident occurred on 7 December 2007. The oil spill trajectories at the surface predicted by numerical model without tidal forcing were remarkably faster than the observation. However the speed of drifters predicted by model considering tide was satisfactorily improved not only for the motion with tidal cycle but also for the motion with subtidal period. The subtidal flow of the simulation with tide was weaker than that without tide due to tidal stress. Tidal stress decelerated the southward subtidal flows driven by northwesterly wind along the Korean coast of the YS in winter. This result provides a substantial implication that tide must be included for accurate prediction of oil spill trajectory not only for variation within a tidal cycle but also for longer time scale advection in tide dominant area.

Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen, Eric; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia

2016-07-01

On 7 March 2014 (UTC), Malaysia Airlines flight 370 vanished without a trace. The aircraft is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, but despite extensive search operations the location of the wreckage is still unknown. The first tangible evidence of the accident was discovered almost 17 months after the disappearance. On 29 July 2015, a small piece of the right wing of the aircraft was found washed up on the island of Réunion, approximately 4000 km from the assumed crash site. Since then a number of other parts have been found in Mozambique, South Africa and on Rodrigues Island. This paper presents a numerical simulation using high-resolution oceanographic and meteorological data to predict the movement of floating debris from the accident. Multiple model realisations are used with different starting locations and wind drag parameters. The model realisations are combined into a superensemble, adjusting the model weights to best represent the discovered debris. The superensemble is then used to predict the distribution of marine debris at various moments in time. This approach can be easily generalised to other drift simulations where observations are available to constrain unknown input parameters. The distribution at the time of the accident shows that the discovered debris most likely originated from the wide search area between 28 and 35° S. This partially overlaps with the current underwater search area, but extends further towards the north. Results at later times show that the most probable locations to discover washed-up debris are along the African east coast, especially in the area around Madagascar. The debris remaining at sea in 2016 is spread out over a wide area and its distribution changes only slowly.

Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

2003-01-01

Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

Protective Behaviour of Citizens to Transport Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials: A Discrete Choice Experiment Applied to Populated Areas nearby Waterways

PubMed Central

de Bekker-Grob, Esther W.; Bergstra, Arnold D.; Bliemer, Michiel C. J.; Trijssenaar-Buhre, Inge J. M.; Burdorf, Alex

2015-01-01

Background To improve the information for and preparation of citizens at risk to hazardous material transport accidents, a first important step is to determine how different characteristics of hazardous material transport accidents will influence citizens’ protective behaviour. However, quantitative studies investigating citizens’ protective behaviour in case of hazardous material transport accidents are scarce. Methods A discrete choice experiment was conducted among subjects (19–64 years) living in the direct vicinity of a large waterway. Scenarios were described by three transport accident characteristics: odour perception, smoke/vapour perception, and the proportion of people in the environment that were leaving at their own discretion. Subjects were asked to consider each scenario as realistic and to choose the alternative that was most appealing to them: staying, seeking shelter, or escaping. A panel error component model was used to quantify how different transport accident characteristics influenced subjects’ protective behaviour. Results The response was 44% (881/1,994). The predicted probability that a subject would stay ranged from 1% in case of a severe looking accident till 62% in case of a mild looking accident. All three transport accident characteristics proved to influence protective behaviour. Particularly a perception of strong ammonia or mercaptan odours and visible smoke/vapour close to citizens had the strongest positive influence on escaping. In general, ‘escaping’ was more preferred than ‘seeking shelter’, although stated preference heterogeneity among subjects for these protective behaviour options was substantial. Males were less willing to seek shelter than females, whereas elderly people were more willing to escape than younger people. Conclusion Various characteristics of transport accident involving hazardous materials influence subjects’ protective behaviour. The preference heterogeneity shows that information needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and age to prepare citizens properly. PMID:26571374

Application of Near Infrared Spectroscopy, Intravascular Ultrasound and the Coronary Calcium Score to Predict Adverse Coronary Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

hospitalization 9. Emergence of rhythm disturbances requiring treatment 10. Development of acute coronary syndrome 11. Cerebrovascular accident Adverse...catheterization. These will include coronary injury including dissection, perforation or occlusion, death, cerebrovascular accident , myocardial... cerebrovascular accident , bleeding, infection, arrhythmia, access site damage, coronary dissection, coronary thrombosis and myocardial infarction, among

Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

2018-04-01

In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

Mental models of safety: do managers and employees see eye to eye?

PubMed

Prussia, Gregory E; Brown, Karen A; Willis, P Geoff

2003-01-01

Disagreements between managers and employees about the causes of accidents and unsafe work behaviors can lead to serious workplace conflicts and distract organizations from the important work of establishing positive safety climate and reducing the incidence of accidents. In this study, the authors examine a model for predicting safe work behaviors and establish the model's consistency across managers and employees in a steel plant setting. Using the model previously described by Brown, Willis, and Prussia (2000), the authors found that when variables influencing safety are considered within a framework of safe work behaviors, managers and employees share a similar mental model. The study then contrasts employees' and managers' specific attributional perceptions. Findings from these more fine-grained analyses suggest the two groups differ in several respects about individual constructs. Most notable were contrasts in attributions based on their perceptions of safety climate. When perceived climate is poor, managers believe employees are responsible and employees believe managers are responsible for workplace safety. However, as perceived safety climate improves, managers and employees converge in their perceptions of who is responsible for safety. It can be concluded from this study that in a highly interdependent work environment, such as a steel mill, where high system reliability is essential and members possess substantial experience working together, managers and employees will share general mental models about the factors that contribute to unsafe behaviors, and, ultimately, to workplace accidents. It is possible that organizations not as tightly coupled as steel mills can use such organizations as benchmarks, seeking ways to create a shared understanding of factors that contribute to a safe work environment. Part of this improvement effort should focus on advancing organizational safety climate. As climate improves, managers and employees are likely to agree more about the causes of safe/unsafe behaviors and workplace accidents, ultimately increasing their ability to work in unison to prevent accidents and to respond appropriately when they do occur. Finally, the survey items included in this study may be useful to organizations wishing to conduct self-assessments.

[Chest modelling and automotive accidents].

PubMed

Trosseille, Xavier

2011-11-01

Automobile development is increasingly based on mathematical modeling. Accurate models of the human body are now available and serve to develop new means of protection. These models used to consist of rigid, articulated bodies but are now made of several million finite elements. They are now capable of predicting some risks of injury. To develop these models, sophisticated tests were conducted on human cadavers. For example, chest modeling started with material characterization and led to complete validation in the automobile environment. Model personalization, based on medical imaging, will permit studies of the behavior and tolerances of the entire population.

Impact, Fire, and Fluid Spread Code Coupling for Complex Transportation Accident Environment Simulation.

PubMed

Brown, Alexander L; Wagner, Gregory J; Metzinger, Kurt E

2012-06-01

Transportation accidents frequently involve liquids dispersing in the atmosphere. An example is that of aircraft impacts, which often result in spreading fuel and a subsequent fire. Predicting the resulting environment is of interest for design, safety, and forensic applications. This environment is challenging for many reasons, one among them being the disparate time and length scales that are necessary to resolve for an accurate physical representation of the problem. A recent computational method appropriate for this class of problems has been described for modeling the impact and subsequent liquid spread. Because the environment is difficult to instrument and costly to test, the existing validation data are of limited scope and quality. A comparatively well instrumented test involving a rocket propelled cylindrical tank of water was performed, the results of which are helpful to understand the adequacy of the modeling methods. Existing data include estimates of drop sizes at several locations, final liquid surface deposition mass integrated over surface area regions, and video evidence of liquid cloud spread distances. Comparisons are drawn between the experimental observations and the predicted results of the modeling methods to provide evidence regarding the accuracy of the methods, and to provide guidance on the application and use of these methods.

HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION-DRIVEN MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR COARSE-GRAINED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanna, Botros N.; Dinh, Nam T.; Bolotnov, Igor A.

Nuclear reactor safety analysis requires identifying various credible accident scenarios and determining their consequences. For a full-scale nuclear power plant system behavior, it is impossible to obtain sufficient experimental data for a broad range of risk-significant accident scenarios. In single-phase flow convective problems, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can provide us with high fidelity results when physical data are unavailable. However, these methods are computationally expensive and cannot be afforded for simulation of long transient scenarios in nuclear accidents despite extraordinary advances in high performance scientific computing over the past decades. The major issue is themore » inability to make the transient computation parallel, thus making number of time steps required in high-fidelity methods unaffordable for long transients. In this work, we propose to apply a high fidelity simulation-driven approach to model sub-grid scale (SGS) effect in Coarse Grained Computational Fluid Dynamics CG-CFD. This approach aims to develop a statistical surrogate model instead of the deterministic SGS model. We chose to start with a turbulent natural convection case with volumetric heating in a horizontal fluid layer with a rigid, insulated lower boundary and isothermal (cold) upper boundary. This scenario of unstable stratification is relevant to turbulent natural convection in a molten corium pool during a severe nuclear reactor accident, as well as in containment mixing and passive cooling. The presented approach demonstrates how to create a correction for the CG-CFD solution by modifying the energy balance equation. A global correction for the temperature equation proves to achieve a significant improvement to the prediction of steady state temperature distribution through the fluid layer.« less

Modeling evaporation from spent nuclear fuel storage pools: A diffusion approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugo, Bruce Robert

Accurate prediction of evaporative losses from light water reactor nuclear power plant (NPP) spent fuel storage pools (SFPs) is important for activities ranging from sizing of water makeup systems during NPP design to predicting the time available to supply emergency makeup water following severe accidents. Existing correlations for predicting evaporation from water surfaces are only optimized for conditions typical of swimming pools. This new approach modeling evaporation as a diffusion process has yielded an evaporation rate model that provided a better fit of published high temperature evaporation data and measurements from two SFPs than other published evaporation correlations. Insights from treating evaporation as a diffusion process include correcting for the effects of air flow and solutes on evaporation rate. An accurate modeling of the effects of air flow on evaporation rate is required to explain the observed temperature data from the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 SFP during the 2011 loss of cooling event; the diffusion model of evaporation provides a significantly better fit to this data than existing evaporation models.

Rate Theory Modeling and Simulation of Silicide Fuel at LWR Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miao, Yinbin; Ye, Bei; Hofman, Gerard

As a promising candidate for the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) used in light water reactors (LWRs), the fuel performance of uranium silicide (U 3Si 2) at LWR conditions needs to be well understood. In this report, rate theory model was developed based on existing experimental data and density functional theory (DFT) calculations so as to predict the fission gas behavior in U 3Si 2 at LWR conditions. The fission gas behavior of U 3Si 2 can be divided into three temperature regimes. During steady-state operation, the majority of the fission gas stays in intragranular bubbles, whereas the dominance of intergranularmore » bubbles and fission gas release only occurs beyond 1000 K. The steady-state rate theory model was also used as reference to establish a gaseous swelling correlation of U 3Si 2 for the BISON code. Meanwhile, the overpressurized bubble model was also developed so that the fission gas behavior at LOCA can be simulated. LOCA simulation showed that intragranular bubbles are still dominant after a 70 second LOCA, resulting in a controllable gaseous swelling. The fission gas behavior of U 3Si 2 at LWR conditions is benign according to the rate theory prediction at both steady-state and LOCA conditions, which provides important references to the qualification of U 3Si 2 as a LWR fuel material with excellent fuel performance and enhanced accident tolerance.« less

ENVIRONMENTAL REACTIVITY OF SOLID STATE HYDRIDE MATERIALS: MODELING AND TESTING FOR AIR AND WATER EXPOSURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anton, D.; James, C.; Cortes-Concepcion, J.

2010-05-18

To make commercially acceptable condensed phase hydrogen storage systems, it is important to understand quantitatively the risks involved in using these materials. A rigorous set of environmental reactivity tests have been developed based on modified testing procedures codified by the United Nations for the transportation of dangerous goods. Potential hydrogen storage material, 2LiBH4{center_dot}MgH2 and NH3BH3, have been tested using these modified procedures to evaluate the relative risks of these materials coming in contact with the environment in hypothetical accident scenarios. It is apparent that an ignition event will only occur if both a flammable concentration of hydrogen and sufficient thermalmore » energy were available to ignite the hydrogen gas mixture. In order to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios, an idealized finite element model was developed for dispersed hydride from a breached system. Empirical thermodynamic calculations based on precise calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy and hydrogen release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure. Both thermal and compositional predictions were made with identification of potential ignition event scenarios.« less

A finite element model of a six-year-old child for simulating pedestrian accidents.

PubMed

Meng, Yunzhu; Pak, Wansoo; Guleyupoglu, Berkan; Koya, Bharath; Gayzik, F Scott; Untaroiu, Costin D

2017-01-01

Child pedestrian protection deserves more attention in vehicle safety design since they are the most vulnerable road users who face the highest mortality rate. Pediatric Finite Element (FE) models could be used to simulate and understand the pedestrian injury mechanisms during crashes in order to mitigate them. Thus, the objective of the study was to develop a computationally efficient (simplified) six-year-old (6YO-PS) pedestrian FE model and validate it based on the latest published pediatric data. The 6YO-PS FE model was developed by morphing the existing GHBMC adult pedestrian model. Retrospective scan data were used to locally adjust the geometry as needed for accuracy. Component test simulations focused only the lower extremities and pelvis, which are the first body regions impacted during pedestrian accidents. Three-point bending test simulations were performed on the femur and tibia with adult material properties and then updated using child material properties. Pelvis impact and knee bending tests were also simulated. Finally, a series of pediatric Car-to-Pedestrian Collision (CPC) were simulated with pre-impact velocities ranging from 20km/h up to 60km/h. The bone models assigned pediatric material properties showed lower stiffness and a good match in terms of fracture force to the test data (less than 6% error). The pelvis impact force predicted by the child model showed a similar trend with test data. The whole pedestrian model was stable during CPC simulations and predicted common pedestrian injuries. Overall, the 6YO-PS FE model developed in this study showed good biofidelity at component level (lower extremity and pelvis) and stability in CPC simulations. While more validations would improve it, the current model could be used to investigate the lower limb injury mechanisms and in the prediction of the impact parameters as specified in regulatory testing protocols. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.; Throop, David R.

2002-01-01

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robert H.; Sulfredge, C. David

2011-01-01

The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

TRAC-P1: an advanced best estimate computer program for PWR LOCA analysis. I. Methods, models, user information, and programming details

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-05-01

The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) to provide an advanced ''best estimate'' predictive capability for the analysis of postulated accidents in light water reactors (LWRs). TRAC-Pl provides this analysis capability for pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and for a wide variety of thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. It features a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and associated internals; two-phase nonequilibrium hydrodynamics models; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions.more » The TRAC-Pl User's Manual is composed of two separate volumes. Volume I gives a description of the thermal-hydraulic models and numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information is also provided. Volume II presents the results of the developmental verification calculations.« less

Identifying the causes of road crashes in Europe

PubMed Central

Thomas, Pete; Morris, Andrew; Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen

2013-01-01

This research applies a recently developed model of accident causation, developed to investigate industrial accidents, to a specially gathered sample of 997 crashes investigated in-depth in 6 countries. Based on the work of Hollnagel the model considers a collision to be a consequence of a breakdown in the interaction between road users, vehicles and the organisation of the traffic environment. 54% of road users experienced interpretation errors while 44% made observation errors and 37% planning errors. In contrast to other studies only 11% of drivers were identified as distracted and 8% inattentive. There was remarkably little variation in these errors between the main road user types. The application of the model to future in-depth crash studies offers the opportunity to identify new measures to improve safety and to mitigate the social impact of collisions. Examples given include the potential value of co-driver advisory technologies to reduce observation errors and predictive technologies to avoid conflicting interactions between road users. PMID:24406942

Historical Doses from Tritiated Water and Tritiated Hydrogen Gas Released to the Atmosphere from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Part 5. Accidental Releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, S

2007-08-15

Over the course of fifty-three years, LLNL had six acute releases of tritiated hydrogen gas (HT) and one acute release of tritiated water vapor (HTO) that were too large relative to the annual releases to be included as part of the annual releases from normal operations detailed in Parts 3 and 4 of the Tritium Dose Reconstruction (TDR). Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA) had one such release of HT and one of HTO. Doses to the maximally exposed individual (MEI) for these accidents have been modeled using an equation derived from the time-dependent tritium model, UFOTRI, and parameter values based onmore » expert judgment. All of these acute releases are described in this report. Doses that could not have been exceeded from the large HT releases of 1965 and 1970 were calculated to be 43 {micro}Sv (4.3 mrem) and 120 {micro}Sv (12 mrem) to an adult, respectively. Two published sets of dose predictions for the accidental HT release in 1970 are compared with the dose predictions of this TDR. The highest predicted dose was for an acute release of HTO in 1954. For this release, the dose that could not have been exceeded was estimated to have been 2 mSv (200 mrem), although, because of the high uncertainty about the predictions, the likely dose may have been as low as 360 {micro}Sv (36 mrem) or less. The estimated maximum exposures from the accidental releases were such that no adverse health effects would be expected. Appendix A lists all accidents and large routine puff releases that have occurred at LLNL and SNL/CA between 1953 and 2005. Appendix B describes the processes unique to tritium that must be modeled after an acute release, some of the time-dependent tritium models being used today, and the results of tests of these models.« less

Atmospheric transport of radioactive debris to Norway in case of a hypothetical accident related to the recovery of the Russian submarine K-27.

PubMed

Bartnicki, Jerzy; Amundsen, Ingar; Brown, Justin; Hosseini, Ali; Hov, Øystein; Haakenstad, Hilde; Klein, Heiko; Lind, Ole Christian; Salbu, Brit; Szacinski Wendel, Cato C; Ytre-Eide, Martin Album

2016-01-01

The Russian nuclear submarine K-27 suffered a loss of coolant accident in 1968 and with nuclear fuel in both reactors it was scuttled in 1981 in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay located on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The inventory of spent nuclear fuel on board the submarine is of concern because it represents a potential source of radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea and a criticality accident with potential for long-range atmospheric transport of radioactive particles cannot be ruled out. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impacts of potential releases in case a salvage operation is initiated, we assessed the atmospheric transport of radionuclides and deposition in Norway from a hypothetical criticality accident on board the K-27. To achieve this, a long term (33 years) meteorological database has been prepared and used for selection of the worst case meteorological scenarios for each of three selected locations of the potential accident. Next, the dispersion model SNAP was run with the source term for the worst-case accident scenario and selected meteorological scenarios. The results showed predictions to be very sensitive to the estimation of the source term for the worst-case accident and especially to the sizes and densities of released radioactive particles. The results indicated that a large area of Norway could be affected, but that the deposition in Northern Norway would be considerably higher than in other areas of the country. The simulations showed that deposition from the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical K-27 accident would be at least two orders of magnitude lower than the deposition observed in Norway following the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

2015-11-15

This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

PubMed

Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

2014-07-01

The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE PAGES

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

2014-05-01

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhegang Ma

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

Multi-scale approach to the modeling of fission gas discharge during hypothetical loss-of-flow accident in gen-IV sodium fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behafarid, F.; Shaver, D. R.; Bolotnov, I. A.

The required technological and safety standards for future Gen IV Reactors can only be achieved if advanced simulation capabilities become available, which combine high performance computing with the necessary level of modeling detail and high accuracy of predictions. The purpose of this paper is to present new results of multi-scale three-dimensional (3D) simulations of the inter-related phenomena, which occur as a result of fuel element heat-up and cladding failure, including the injection of a jet of gaseous fission products into a partially blocked Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) coolant channel, and gas/molten sodium transport along the coolant channels. The computational approachmore » to the analysis of the overall accident scenario is based on using two different inter-communicating computational multiphase fluid dynamics (CMFD) codes: a CFD code, PHASTA, and a RANS code, NPHASE-CMFD. Using the geometry and time history of cladding failure and the gas injection rate, direct numerical simulations (DNS), combined with the Level Set method, of two-phase turbulent flow have been performed by the PHASTA code. The model allows one to track the evolution of gas/liquid interfaces at a centimeter scale. The simulated phenomena include the formation and breakup of the jet of fission products injected into the liquid sodium coolant. The PHASTA outflow has been averaged over time to obtain mean phasic velocities and volumetric concentrations, as well as the liquid turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence dissipation rate, all of which have served as the input to the core-scale simulations using the NPHASE-CMFD code. A sliding window time averaging has been used to capture mean flow parameters for transient cases. The results presented in the paper include testing and validation of the proposed models, as well the predictions of fission-gas/liquid-sodium transport along a multi-rod fuel assembly of SFR during a partial loss-of-flow accident. (authors)« less

Wind shear and turbulence around airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewellen, W. S.; Williamson, G. G.

1976-01-01

A two part study was conducted to determine the feasibility of predicting the conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist. The computer model used to solve the velocity temperature, and turbulence distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer is described, and the results of a parameteric analysis to determine the expected range of wind shear and turbulence to be encountered in the vicinity of airports are given. The second part describes the delineation of an ensemble of aircraft accidents in which low level wind shear and/or turbulence appeared to be causative factors. This set of accidents, encompassing a wide range of meteorological conditions, should prove useful in developing techniques for reconstructing hazardous wind environments for aircraft safety investigation purposes.

Alcohol-control public service announcements (PSAs) and drunk-driving fatal accidents in the United States, 1996-2010.

PubMed

Niederdeppe, Jeff; Avery, Rosemary; Miller, Emily N

2017-06-01

Widespread concern regarding the detrimental effects of excessive alcohol consumption (especially by minors) and associated social problems (particularly drunk driving) continues to exist among policymakers, law enforcement officers, and the general public. Alcohol consumption is a leading contributor to death from injuries, which itself is one of the main causes of death for people under 21years of age in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the volume and timing of alcohol-control public service announcements (PSAs) and rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents in the U.S. We estimate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models to predict rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents by state and month as a function of the volume of alcohol-control PSAs aired during the previous 8months. Models include controls for state anti-drunk-driving laws and regulations, state demographic characteristics, state taxes on alcohol, calendar year, and seasonality. Results indicate that higher volumes of anti-drunk driving PSAs airing in the preceding 2 to 3months are associated, albeit modest in magnitude, with reduced rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents. The regression coefficients are largest for adults (relative to underage drunk drivers) and when the PSAs air during prime time (relative to daytime or nighttime). We conclude that PSAs could play an important contributing role in reducing drunk-driving fatal accidents, although levels of exposure and potential effects likely remain modest due to reliance on donated air time. Well-funded anti-drunk driving campaigns could achieve higher levels of exposure and have a larger impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discussion on accuracy degree evaluation of accident velocity reconstruction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Tiefang; Dai, Yingbiao; Cai, Ming; Liu, Jike

In order to investigate the applicability of accident velocity reconstruction model in different cases, a method used to evaluate accuracy degree of accident velocity reconstruction model is given. Based on pre-crash velocity in theory and calculation, an accuracy degree evaluation formula is obtained. With a numerical simulation case, Accuracy degrees and applicability of two accident velocity reconstruction models are analyzed; results show that this method is feasible in practice.

An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model.

PubMed

Mussone, L; Ferrari, A; Oneta, M

1999-11-01

Traditional studies on road accidents estimate the effect of variables (such as vehicular flows, road geometry, vehicular characteristics), and the calculation of the number of accidents. A descriptive statistical analysis of the accidents (those used in the model) over the period 1992-1995 is proposed. The paper describes an alternative method based on the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to work out a model that relates to the analysis of vehicular accidents in Milan. The degree of danger of urban intersections using different scenarios is quantified by the ANN model. Methodology is the first result, which allows us to tackle the modelling of urban vehicular accidents by the innovative use of ANN. Other results deal with model outputs: intersection complexity may determine a higher accident index depending on the regulation of intersection. The highest index for running over of pedestrian occurs at non-signalised intersections at night-time.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID:26815039

Prediction of Return-to-original-work after an Industrial Accident Using Machine Learning and Comparison of Techniques

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Many studies have tried to develop predictors for return-to-work (RTW). However, since complex factors have been demonstrated to predict RTW, it is difficult to use them practically. This study investigated whether factors used in previous studies could predict whether an individual had returned to his/her original work by four years after termination of the worker's recovery period. Methods An initial logistic regression analysis of 1,567 participants of the fourth Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance yielded odds ratios. The participants were divided into two subsets, a training dataset and a test dataset. Using the training dataset, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine models were established, and important variables of each model were identified. The predictive abilities of the different models were compared. Results The analysis showed that only earned income and company-related factors significantly affected return-to-original-work (RTOW). The random forest model showed the best accuracy among the tested machine learning models; however, the difference was not prominent. Conclusion It is possible to predict a worker's probability of RTOW using machine learning techniques with moderate accuracy. PMID:29736160

Structural response of 1/20-scale models of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor to a simulated hypothetical core disruptive accident. Technical report 4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romander, C. M.; Cagliostro, D. J.

Five experiments were performed to help evaluate the structural integrity of the reactor vessel and head design and to verify code predictions. In the first experiment (SM 1), a detailed model of the head was loaded statically to determine its stiffness. In the remaining four experiments (SM 2 to SM 5), models of the vessel and head were loaded dynamically under a simulated 661 MW-sec hypothetical core disruptive accident (HCDA). Models SM 2 to SM 4, each of increasing complexity, systematically showed the effects of upper internals structures, a thermal liner, core support platform, and torospherical bottom on vessel response.more » Model SM 5, identical to SM 4 but more heavily instrumented, demonstrated experimental reproducibility and provided more comprehensive data. The models consisted of a Ni 200 vessel and core barrel, a head with shielding and simulated component masses, an upper internals structure (UIS), and, in the more complex models SM 4 and SM 5, a Ni 200 thermal liner and core support structure. Water simulated the liquid sodium coolant and a low-density explosive simulated the HCDA loads.« less

A biokinetic model for {sup 137}Cs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melo, D.R.; Lipsztein, J.L.; Oliveira, C.A.N.

1997-08-01

An improved biokinetic model for {sup 137}Cs in humans was developed based on an analysis of data obtained from individuals internally contaminated during an accident in Goiania, Brazil, and other data. Seventeen children (ten girls and seven boys 1-10 y old), ten adolescents (four females and six males), and thirty adults, (fifteen females and fifteen males) contaminated in the accident in Goiania contributed to this study. {sup 137}Cs retention was determined through periodic measurements in a whole-body counter. In addition to the data on {sup 137}Cs retention from these individuals, data from a study on the metabolism of {sup 137}Csmore » in immature, adult, and aged Beagle dogs and data from the literature were used in the formulation of the {sup 137}Cs biokinetic model presented. Mathematically, the retention of cesium is described by three exponential terms, and the retention model is based on a step function of body weight. When the ICRP Publication 56 model for cesium was compared to the model suggested in this paper, it was determined that the ICRP model predicts lower effective doses in 5-y-old children and higher effective doses in infants, adolescents, and adults.« less

Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. Addendum.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-01

This report is an addendum to the work published in FHWA-RD-96-125 titled Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. The objective of both research studies was to develop statistical models of the relationship between traffic accide...

The relationship between safety climate and recent accidents: behavioral learning and cognitive attributions.

PubMed

Desai, Vinit M; Roberts, Karlene H; Ciavarelli, Anthony P

2006-01-01

The association between accidents and subsequent work unit safety perceptions was assessed to address cognitive and behavioral changes following accidents. Many studies attempt to predict accident rates using measures of work unit safety, but effects vary considerably. Conversely, this study examined whether recent accidents may be positively associated with work unit safety perceptions, as suggested by behavioral learning mechanisms (increases in safety investments following accidents) or cognitive mechanisms (defensive attributions regarding accident causality). Lagged squadron-level accident experience was correlated with work unit safety perceptions obtained through a 61-question safety climate survey administered to 6,361 individuals in U.S. Navy flight squadrons. Positive associations between minor or intermediately severe accidents and future safety climate scores were found, although no effect was found for major accidents. We suggest that accident history should be considered when examining work unit safety perceptions because recent accidents may be associated with higher safety climate scores. We did not find that this varies systematically with accident severity, and longitudinal research on additional samples is needed to further test this possibility. This research may be used to refine measurement of work unit safety and to examine impacts of accidents or safety violations on workers' cognitive processes and group behavioral changes.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

PubMed

Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

2016-02-01

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A system of safety management practices and worker engagement for reducing and preventing accidents: an empirical and theoretical investigation.

PubMed

Wachter, Jan K; Yorio, Patrick L

2014-07-01

The overall research objective was to theoretically and empirically develop the ideas around a system of safety management practices (ten practices were elaborated), to test their relationship with objective safety statistics (such as accident rates), and to explore how these practices work to achieve positive safety results (accident prevention) through worker engagement. Data were collected using safety manager, supervisor and employee surveys designed to assess and link safety management system practices, employee perceptions resulting from existing practices, and safety performance outcomes. Results indicate the following: there is a significant negative relationship between the presence of ten individual safety management practices, as well as the composite of these practices, with accident rates; there is a significant negative relationship between the level of safety-focused worker emotional and cognitive engagement with accident rates; safety management systems and worker engagement levels can be used individually to predict accident rates; safety management systems can be used to predict worker engagement levels; and worker engagement levels act as mediators between the safety management system and safety performance outcomes (such as accident rates). Even though the presence of safety management system practices is linked with incident reduction and may represent a necessary first-step in accident prevention, safety performance may also depend on mediation by safety-focused cognitive and emotional engagement by workers. Thus, when organizations invest in a safety management system approach to reducing/preventing accidents and improving safety performance, they should also be concerned about winning over the minds and hearts of their workers through human performance-based safety management systems designed to promote and enhance worker engagement. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Application of Fractal theory for crash rate prediction: Insights from random parameters and latent class tobit models.

PubMed

Chand, Sai; Dixit, Vinayak V

2018-03-01

The repercussions from congestion and accidents on major highways can have significant negative impacts on the economy and environment. It is a primary objective of transport authorities to minimize the likelihood of these phenomena taking place, to improve safety and overall network performance. In this study, we use the Hurst Exponent metric from Fractal Theory, as a congestion indicator for crash-rate modeling. We analyze one month of traffic speed data at several monitor sites along the M4 motorway in Sydney, Australia and assess congestion patterns with the Hurst Exponent of speed (H speed ). Random Parameters and Latent Class Tobit models were estimated, to examine the effect of congestion on historical crash rates, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using a latent class modeling approach, the motorway sections were probabilistically classified into two segments, based on the presence of entry and exit ramps. This will allow transportation agencies to implement appropriate safety/traffic countermeasures when addressing accident hotspots or inadequately managed sections of motorway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling Equations for Ballistic Modeling of Solid Rocket Motor Case Breach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillin, Joshua E.

2006-01-01

This paper explores the development of a series of scaling equations that can take a known nominal motor performance and scale it for small and growing case failures. This model was developed for the Malfunction-Turn Study as part of Return to Flight activities for the Space Shuttle program. To verify the model, data from the Challenger accident (STS- 51L) were used. The model is able to predict the motor performance beyond the last recorded Challenger data and show how the failed right hand booster would have performed if the vehicle had remained intact.

Mathematical model to predict drivers' reaction speeds.

PubMed

Long, Benjamin L; Gillespie, A Isabella; Tanaka, Martin L

2012-02-01

Mental distractions and physical impairments can increase the risk of accidents by affecting a driver's ability to control the vehicle. In this article, we developed a linear mathematical model that can be used to quantitatively predict drivers' performance over a variety of possible driving conditions. Predictions were not limited only to conditions tested, but also included linear combinations of these tests conditions. Two groups of 12 participants were evaluated using a custom drivers' reaction speed testing device to evaluate the effect of cell phone talking, texting, and a fixed knee brace on the components of drivers' reaction speed. Cognitive reaction time was found to increase by 24% for cell phone talking and 74% for texting. The fixed knee brace increased musculoskeletal reaction time by 24%. These experimental data were used to develop a mathematical model to predict reaction speed for an untested condition, talking on a cell phone with a fixed knee brace. The model was verified by comparing the predicted reaction speed to measured experimental values from an independent test. The model predicted full braking time within 3% of the measured value. Although only a few influential conditions were evaluated, we present a general approach that can be expanded to include other types of distractions, impairments, and environmental conditions.

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed Central

Boden, L I

1985-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents. PMID:3985237

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed

Boden, L I

1985-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents.

Relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders.

PubMed

Lu, Guangquan; Cheng, Bo; Kuzumaki, Seigo; Mei, Bingsong

2011-08-01

Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs). DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters. If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further. The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.

Real life safety benefits of increasing brake deceleration in car-to-pedestrian accidents: Simulation of Vacuum Emergency Braking.

PubMed

Jeppsson, Hanna; Östling, Martin; Lubbe, Nils

2018-02-01

The objective of this study is to predict the real-life benefits, namely the number of injuries avoided rather than the reduction in impact speed, offered by a Vacuum Emergency Brake (VEB) added to a pedestrian automated emergency braking (AEB) system. We achieve this through the virtual simulation of simplified mathematical models of a system which incorporates expected future advances in technology, such as a wide sensor field of view, and reductions in the time needed for detection, classification, and brake pressure build up. The German In-Depth Accident Study database and the related Pre Crash Matrix, both released in the beginning of 2016, were used for this study and resulted in a final sample of 526 collisions between passenger car fronts and pedestrians. Weight factors were calculated for both simulation model and injury risk curves to make the data representative of Germany as a whole. The accident data was used with a hypothetical AEB system in a simulation model, and injury risk was calculated from the new impact speed using injury risk curves to generate new situations using real accidents. Adding a VEB to a car with pedestrian AEB decreased pedestrian casualties by an additional 8-22%, depending on system setting and injury level, over the AEB-only system. The overall decrease in fatalities was 80-87%, an improvement of 8%. Collision avoidance was improved by 14-28%. VEB with a maximum deceleration in the middle of the modelled performance range has an effectiveness similar to that of an "early activation" system, where the AEB is triggered as early as 2 s before collision. VEB may therefore offer a substantial increase in performance without increasing false positive rates, which earlier AEB activation does. Most collisions and injuries can be avoided when AEB is supplemented by the high performance VEB; remaining cases are characterised by high pedestrian walking speed and late visibility due to view obstructions. VEB is effective in all analysed accident scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance prediction of the Strong company's soft ground arrestor system using a numerical analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Air transportation has an outstanding safety record; however, accidents do occur. Aircraft accidents can occur while the aircraft is at cruise altitude or during land movements: taxiing, takeoff, and landing. Overruns occur when an aircraft is unable...

Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D; Street, Melissa E; Syed, S Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Stratford, Paul W; Miller, Patricia A

2011-01-01

To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from -0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted.

Glider accidents: an analysis of 143 cases, 2001-2005.

PubMed

van Doorn, Robert R A; de Voogt, Alexander J

2007-01-01

The majority of aviation crashes and casualties take place in general and sport aviation. Although gliding has gained popularity in recent decades, we could find no systematic analysis of glider accidents. This study determined factors associated with both non-fatal and fatal glider accidents to document their position within sport and general aviation accidents, and to suggest preventive measures and improvements. We performed a retrospective review of glider accidents for the period 2001-2005 in the database maintained by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). A total of 117 non-fatal and 26 fatal glider accidents were reported for the 5-yr period. Adverse weather was the cause in 20% of all non-fatal accidents, 60% of which occurred in the cruise phase. Logistic regression revealed that fatal accidents were predicted by pilot error, flight phase, and home-built aircraft. Factors contributing to glider crashes are specific to this type of sport aviation. Owners of home-built gliders should pay particular attention to the aircraft's specifications and design limits.

Diving accidents in sports divers in Orkney waters.

PubMed

Trevett, A J; Forbes, R; Rae, C K; Sheehan, C; Ross, J; Watt, S J; Stephenson, R

2001-12-01

Scapa Flow in Orkney is one of the major world centres for wreck diving. Because of the geography of Orkney and the nature of the diving, it is possible to make relatively accurate estimates of the number of dives taking place. The denominator of dive activity allows the unusual opportunity of precise calculation of accident rates. In 1999, one in every 178 sports divers visiting Orkney was involved in a significant accident, in 2000 the figure was one in 102. Some of these accidents appear to have been predictable and could be avoided by better education and preparation of visiting divers.

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marais, Karen; Leveson, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

Linking Doses with Clinical Scores of Hematopoietic Acute Radiation Syndrome.

PubMed

Hu, Shaowen

2016-10-01

In radiation accidents, determining the radiation dose the victim received is a key step for medical decision making and patient prognosis. To reconstruct and evaluate the absorbed dose, researchers have developed many physical devices and biological techniques during the last decades. However, using the physical parameter "absorbed dose" alone is not sufficient to predict the clinical development of the various organs injured in an individual patient. In operational situations for radiation accidents, medical responders need more urgently to classify the severity of the radiation injury based on the signs and symptoms of the patient. In this work, the author uses a unified hematopoietic model to describe dose-dependent dynamics of granulocytes, lymphocytes, and platelets, and the corresponding clinical grading of hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome. This approach not only visualizes the time course of the patient's probable outcome in the form of graphs but also indirectly gives information of the remaining stem and progenitor cells, which are responsible for the autologous recovery of the hematopoietic system. Because critical information on the patient's clinical evolution can be provided within a short time after exposure and only peripheral cell counts are required for the simulation, these modeling tools will be useful to assess radiation exposure and injury in human-involved radiation accident/incident scenarios.

CHAP-2 heat-transfer analysis of the Fort St. Vrain reactor core

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotas, J.F.; Stroh, K.R.

1983-01-01

The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Composite High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Analysis Program (CHAP) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in gas-cooled reactor plants. The CHAP-2 reactor-core model uses the finite-element method to initialize a two-dimensional temperature map of the Fort St. Vrain (FSV) core and its top and bottom reflectors. The code generates a finite-element mesh, initializes noding and boundary conditions, and solves the nonlinear Laplace heat equation using temperature-dependent thermal conductivities, variable coolant-channel-convection heat-transfer coefficients, and specified internal fuel and moderator heat-generation rates. This paper discusses this method and analyzes an FSV reactor-core accident thatmore » simulates a control-rod withdrawal at full power.« less

Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2010-01-01

In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

Sleepy driver near-misses may predict accident risks.

PubMed

Powell, Nelson B; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Riley, Robert W; Guilleminault, Christian; Chiang, Rayleigh Ping-ying; Weaver, Edward M

2007-03-01

To quantify the prevalence of self-reported near-miss sleepy driving accidents and their association with self-reported actual driving accidents. A prospective cross-sectional internet-linked survey on driving behaviors. Dateline NBC News website. Results are given on 35,217 (88% of sample) individuals with a mean age of 37.2 +/- 13 years, 54.8% women, and 87% white. The risk of at least one accident increased monotonically from 23.2% if there were no near-miss sleepy accidents to 44.5% if there were > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustments, subjects who reported at least one near-miss sleepy accident were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.16) times as likely to have reported at least one actual accident as subjects reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). The odds of reporting at least one actual accident in those reporting > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents as compared to those reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.14). Furthermore, after adjustments, the summary Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score had an independent association with having a near-miss or actual accident. An increase of 1 unit of ESS was associated with a covariate adjusted 4.4% increase of having at least one accident (P < 0.0001). A statistically significant dose-response was seen between the numbers of self-reported sleepy near-miss accidents and an actual accident. These findings suggest that sleepy near-misses may be dangerous precursors to an actual accident.

How much benefit does Intelligent Speed Adaptation deliver: an analysis of its potential contribution to safety and environment.

PubMed

Lai, Frank; Carsten, Oliver; Tate, Fergus

2012-09-01

The UK Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) project produced a rich database with high-resolution data on driver behaviour covering a comprehensive range of road environment. The field trials provided vital information on driver behaviour in the presence of ISA. The purpose of this paper is to exploit the information gathered in the field trials to predict the impacts of various forms of ISA and to assess whether ISA is viable in terms of benefit-to-cost ratio. ISA is predicted to save up to 33% of accidents on urban roads, and to reduce CO(2) emissions by up to 5.8% on 70 mph roads. In order to investigate the long-term impacts of ISA, two hypothetical deployment scenarios were envisaged covering a 60-year appraisal period. The results indicate that ISA could deliver a very healthy benefit-to-cost ratio, ranging from 3.4 to 7.4, depending on the deployment scenarios. Under both deployment scenarios, ISA has recovered its implementation costs in less than 15 years. It can be concluded that implementation of ISA is clearly justified from a social cost and benefit perspective. Of the two deployment scenarios, the Market Driven one is substantially outperformed by the Authority Driven one. The benefits of ISA on fuel saving and emission reduction are real but not substantial, in comparison with the benefits on accident reduction; up to 98% of benefits are attributable to accident savings. Indeed, ISA is predicted to lead to a savings of 30% in fatal crashes and 25% in serious crashes over the 60-year period modelled. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ankle sprain as a work-related accident: status of proprioception after 2 weeks

PubMed Central

González-Iñigo, Salvador; Lafuente-Sotillos, Guillermo

2017-01-01

Purpose This study aims at verifying whether proprioception is abnormal or not, two weeks after a grade 1 and 2 ankle sprain in the scope of work-related accident. Methods A descriptive, observation and transversal study was designed to compare speed, movement and oscilation of centre of pressure in employees of companies signed up to a mutual company. Participants’ healthy feet comprised the control group, and feet that had undergone an ankle sprain due to a work-related accident comprised the cases group. The following stability tests were undertaken to both the healthy and injuried feet using a force plate: Monopodal Romberg test with eyes open, Monopodal Romberg test with eyes open on a 30 mm thick foam rubber, Monopodal Romberg test with eyes closed, and Romberg test as monopodal support with eyes closed on a 30 mm thick foam rubber. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed. From the results of this regression model the COR curve test was performed. Results 71.7% accuracy in the predictions was attained. The equation was as follows: Condition (injured or healthy) = 0.052⋅% RGC AP Movement − 0.81⋅MREO AP Movement. The variable MREO antero-posterior movement was used in the COR curve methodology. The area under the curve was greater than 0.65 and at a 95% confidence interval the 0.75 value was included, which in our case was the injured subject condition. Values for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 0.667, 0.633, 64.5%, and 65.5%, respectively. Conclusion The participants in this study showed a diminished capacity for postural control in an ankle two weeks after an ankle sprain. PMID:29259844

Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and deposition, we are able to reasonably capture the deposition of radionuclides to the northwest of the reactor site.« less

Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

PubMed

Saar, Indrek

2015-01-01

This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

Impact Assessment of Effective Parameters on Drivers' Attention Level to Urban Traffic Signs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazemi, Mojtaba; Rahimi, Amir Masoud; Roshankhah, Sheida

2016-03-01

Traffic signs are one of the oldest safety and traffic control equipments. Drivers' reaction to installed signs is an important issue that could be studied using statistical models developed for target groups. There are 527 questionnaires have been filled up randomly in 45 days, some by drivers passing two northern cities of Iran and some by e-mail. Therefore, minimum sample size of 384 is fulfilled. In addition, Cronbach Alpha of more than 90 % verifies the questionnaire's validity. Ordinal logistic regression is used for 5-level answer variables. This relatively novel method predicts probability of different cases' considering other effective independent variables. There are 18 parameters of factor, man, vehicle, and environment are assessed and 5 parameters of number of accidents in last 5 years, occupation, driving time, number of accidents per day, and driving speed are eventually found as the most important ones. Age and gender, that are considered as key factors in other safety and accident studies, are not recognized as effective ones in this paper. The results could be useful for safety planning programs.

Assembly and analysis of fragmentation data for liquid propellant vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Parr, V. B.; Bessey, R. L.; Cox, P. A.

1974-01-01

Fragmentation data was assembled and analyzed for exploding liquid propellant vessels. These data were to be retrieved from reports of tests and accidents, including measurements or estimates of blast yield, etc. A significant amount of data was retrieved from a series of tests conducted for measurement of blast and fireball effects of liquid propellant explosions (Project PYRO), a few well-documented accident reports, and a series of tests to determine auto-ignition properties of mixing liquid propellants. The data were reduced and fitted to various statistical functions. Comparisons were made with methods of prediction for blast yield, initial fragment velocities, and fragment range. Reasonably good correlation was achieved. Methods presented in the report allow prediction of fragment patterns, given type and quantity of propellant, type of accident, and time of propellant mixing.

Numerical investigations of rib fracture failure models in different dynamic loading conditions.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Yang, Jikuang; Miller, Karol; Li, Guibing; Joldes, Grand R; Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam

2016-01-01

Rib fracture is one of the most common thoracic injuries in vehicle traffic accidents that can result in fatalities associated with seriously injured internal organs. A failure model is critical when modelling rib fracture to predict such injuries. Different rib failure models have been proposed in prediction of thorax injuries. However, the biofidelity of the fracture failure models when varying the loading conditions and the effects of a rib fracture failure model on prediction of thoracic injuries have been studied only to a limited extent. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of three rib failure models on prediction of thoracic injuries using a previously validated finite element model of the human thorax. The performance and biofidelity of each rib failure model were first evaluated by modelling rib responses to different loading conditions in two experimental configurations: (1) the three-point bending on the specimen taken from rib and (2) the anterior-posterior dynamic loading to an entire bony part of the rib. Furthermore, the simulation of the rib failure behaviour in the frontal impact to an entire thorax was conducted at varying velocities and the effects of the failure models were analysed with respect to the severity of rib cage damages. Simulation results demonstrated that the responses of the thorax model are similar to the general trends of the rib fracture responses reported in the experimental literature. However, they also indicated that the accuracy of the rib fracture prediction using a given failure model varies for different loading conditions.

Hindcast and Forecast of 137Cs Activities in the North Pacific Ocean Waters from 1945 to 2020 by Eddy-resolving ROMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsubono, T.; Misumi, K.; Tsumune, D.; Aoyama, M.; Hirose, K.

2015-12-01

We conducted a hindcast and forecast of 137Cs activities in the North Pacific waters from 1945 to 2020, before and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP) accident. We used the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with high resolution (1/12º-1/4º in horizontal, 45 levels in vertical), of which domain was the North Pacific Ocean. The model was driven by the exactly repeating "Normal Year" forcing Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE) forcing dataset (Large and Yeager, 2008) using bulk formulae and the model-predicted sea surface temperature and the 50 years averaged SODA data as boundary conditions. The reconstructed global fallout due to atmospheric nuclear weapons' tests and Chernobyl accident was employed for atmospheric flux of 137Cs from 1945 to 2011. After the accident, the atmospheric deposition and direct release of 137Cs from F1NPP were also employed for input condition. Five ensemble calculations of 137Cs activities in seawater were conducted under different initial conditions, but had identical forcing. The net input of 16 PBq of 137Cs from F1NPP, which was employed in this study, corresponded to 26% of the total amount (61 PBq) of 137Cs that was estimated in the North Pacific before the F1NPP accident in 2011. Before the accident in 2011, the 137Cs on surface ranged from 0.75 to 1.7 Bq m-3. The direct comparison between simulated and observed 134Cs activities in the surface layer represented that the root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient were 5.6 Bq m-3 and 0.86, respectively, suggesting the model result were consistent with the observations. The main body of high 137Cs activity water from F1NPP was transported to south of the Subarctic Front around 42°N via the Oyashio Coastal Current, the Oyashio intrusion, and the Kuroshio bifurcation and then to the western North Pacific. This model simulation suggested that the 137Cs activities in surface waters at P26 (P04) would increase to 4.1 Bq m-3 (4.3 Bq m-3 ) in 2015 (2016) and then decrease to 1.3 Bq m-3 (1.8 Bq m-3 ) in last 2020.

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

Accident models for two-lane rural roads : segments and intersections

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-10-01

This report is a direct step for the implementation of the Accident Analysis Module in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The Accident Analysis Module is expected to estimate the safety of two-lane rural highway characteristics for ...

The ARAC-RODOS-WSPEEDI Information Exchange Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J

1999-09-01

Under the auspices of a US DOE-JAPAN Memorandum of Understanding JAERI and LLNL agreed to develop and evaluate a prototype information exchange protocol for nuclear accident emergency situations. This project received some interest from the US DOS and FEMA as it fits nicely under the umbrella of the G-7's GEMINI (Global Emergency Management Information Network Initiative) project. Because of LLNL/ARAC and JAERV WSPEEDI interest in nuclear accident consequence assessment and hazard prediction on all scales, to include global, we were happy to participate. Subsequent to the Spring 1997 RODOS-ARAC Workshop a Memorandum of Agreement was developed to enhance mutual collaborationmore » on matters of emergency systems development. In the summer of 1998 the project leaders of RODOS, WSPEEDI and ARAC met at FZK and agreed to join in a triangular collaboration on the development and demonstration of an emergency information exchange protocol. JAERI and FZK are engaged in developing a formal cooperation agreement. The purpose of this project is to evaluate the prototype information protocol application for technical feasibility and mutual benefit through simulated (real) event; quick exchange of atmospheric modeling products and environmental data during emergencies, distribution of predicted results to other countries having no prediction capabilities, and utilization of the link for collaborative studies.« less

Functional capacity evaluation of work performance among individuals with pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Ratzon, Navah Z; Ari Shevil, Eynat Ben; Froom, Paul; Friedman, Sharon; Amit, Yehuda

2013-01-01

Pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents (MVA) cause disability and affect work capabilities. This study evaluated functional, self-report, and medical-based factors that could predict work capacity as was reflected in a functional capacity evaluation (FCE) among persons who sustained a pelvic injury. It was hypothesized that self-reported functional status and bio-demographic variables would predict work capacity. Sixty-one community-dwelling adults previously hospitalized following a MVA induced pelvic injury. FCE for work performance was conducted using the Physical Work Performance Evaluation (PWPE). Additional data was collected through a demographics questionnaire and the Functional Status Questionnaire. All participants underwent an orthopedic medical examination of the hip and lower extremities. Most participants self-reported that their work capacity post-injury were lower than their job required. PWPE scores indicated below-range functional performance. Regression models predicted 23% to 51% of PWPE subtests. Participants' self-report of functioning (instrumental activities of daily living and work) and bio-demographic variables (gender and age) were better predictors of PWPE scores than factors originating from the medical examination. Results support the inclusion of FCE, in addition to self-report of functioning and medical examination, to evaluate work capacity among individuals' post-pelvic injury and interventions and discharge planning.

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

PubMed

Iakova, Maria; Ballabeni, Pierluigi; Erhart, Peter; Seichert, Nikola; Luthi, François; Dériaz, Olivier

2012-12-01

This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation.

Mobile phone use during driving: Effects on speed and effectiveness of driver compensatory behaviour.

PubMed

Choudhary, Pushpa; Velaga, Nagendra R

2017-09-01

This study analysed and modelled the effects of conversation and texting (each with two difficulty levels) on driving performance of Indian drivers in terms of their mean speed and accident avoiding abilities; and further explored the relationship between speed reduction strategy of the drivers and their corresponding accident frequency. 100 drivers of three different age groups (young, mid-age and old-age) participated in the simulator study. Two sudden events of Indian context: unexpected crossing of pedestrians and joining of parked vehicles from road side, were simulated for estimating the accident probabilities. Generalized linear mixed models approach was used for developing linear regression models for mean speed and binary logistic regression models for accident probability. The results of the models showed that the drivers significantly compensated the increased workload by reducing their mean speed by 2.62m/s and 5.29m/s in the presence of conversation and texting tasks respectively. The logistic models for accident probabilities showed that the accident probabilities increased by 3 and 4 times respectively when the drivers were conversing or texting on a phone during driving. Further, the relationship between the speed reduction patterns and their corresponding accident frequencies showed that all the drivers compensated differently; but, among all the drivers, only few drivers, who compensated by reducing the speed by 30% or more, were able to fully offset the increased accident risk associated with the phone use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

PubMed

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-09-05

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

PubMed Central

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-01-01

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

PubMed

Af Wåhlberg, A E; Barraclough, P; Freeman, J

2015-12-01

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results. The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which tendencies are controlled for. Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

PubMed Central

Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2009-01-01

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

Estimating Rates of Motor Vehicle Crashes Using Medical Encounter Data: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-05

used to develop more detailed predictive risk models as well as strategies for preventing specific types of MVCs. Systematic Review of Evidence... used to estimate rates of accident-related injuries more generally,9 but not with specific reference to MVCs. For the present report, rates of...precise rate estimates based on person-years rather than active duty strength, (e) multivariable effects of specific risk /protective factors after

Radiant Heat Testing of the H1224A Shipping/Storage Container

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

re - entry vehicles caused by credible accidents during air and ground transportation. Radiant heat testing of the H1224A storage/shipping container is...inner container, and re - entry vehicle (RV) temperatures during radiant heat testing. Computer modelling can be used to predict weapon response throughout...Nomenclature RV Re - entry Vehicle midsection mass mock-up WR War Reserve STS Stockpile-to-Target Sequence NAWC Simulated H1224A container by Naval Air

Adjusting to Random Demands of Patient Care: A Predictive Model for Nursing Staff Scheduling at Naval Medical Center San Diego

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

rich mix of medical services that range from simple ambulatory visits to plastic surgery , neuro- surgery , general surgery , bariatric , ophthalmology...CENTER SAN DIEGO NMCSD is a 266-bed tertiary care facility providing patient services ranging from same day surgery to brain surgery . The hospital...orthopedics, cardiology, thoracic surgery , vascular surgery , transient ischemic attack/cerebro vascular accident (TIA/CVA), OB/GYN, urology, non

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Core cooling under accident conditions at the high flux beam reactor (HFBR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tichler, P.; Cheng, L.; Fauske, H.

In certain accident scenarios, e.g. loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) all forced flow cooling is lost. Decay heating causes a temperature increase in the core coolant and the resulting thermal buoyancy causes a reversal of the flow direction to a natural circulation mode. Although there was experimental evidence during the reactor design period (1958--1963) that the heat removal capacity in the fully developed natural circulation cooling mode was relatively high, it was not possible to make a confident prediction of the heat removal capacity during the transition from downflow to natural circulation. In a LOCA scenario where even limited fuelmore » damage occurs and natural circulation is established, fission product gases could be carried from the damaged fuel by steam into areas where operator access is required to maintain the core in a coolable configuration. This would force evacuation of the building and lead to extensive core damage. As a result the HFBR was shut down by the Department of Energy (DOE) and an extensive review of the HFBR was initiated. In an effort to address this issue BNL developed a model designed to predict the heat removal limit during flow reversal that was found to be in good agreement with the test results. Currently a thermal-hydraulic test program is being developed to provide a more realistic and defensible estimate of the flow reversal heat removal limit so that the reactor power level can be increased.« less

An open simulation approach to identify chances and limitations for vulnerable road user (VRU) active safety.

PubMed

Seiniger, Patrick; Bartels, Oliver; Pastor, Claus; Wisch, Marcus

2013-01-01

It is commonly agreed that active safety will have a significant impact on reducing accident figures for pedestrians and probably also bicyclists. However, chances and limitations for active safety systems have only been derived based on accident data and the current state of the art, based on proprietary simulation models. The objective of this article is to investigate these chances and limitations by developing an open simulation model. This article introduces a simulation model, incorporating accident kinematics, driving dynamics, driver reaction times, pedestrian dynamics, performance parameters of different autonomous emergency braking (AEB) generations, as well as legal and logical limitations. The level of detail for available pedestrian accident data is limited. Relevant variables, especially timing of the pedestrian appearance and the pedestrian's moving speed, are estimated using assumptions. The model in this article uses the fact that a pedestrian and a vehicle in an accident must have been in the same spot at the same time and defines the impact position as a relevant accident parameter, which is usually available from accident data. The calculations done within the model identify the possible timing available for braking by an AEB system as well as the possible speed reduction for different accident scenarios as well as for different system configurations. The simulation model identifies the lateral impact position of the pedestrian as a significant parameter for system performance, and the system layout is designed to brake when the accident becomes unavoidable by the vehicle driver. Scenarios with a pedestrian running from behind an obstruction are the most demanding scenarios and will very likely never be avoidable for all vehicle speeds due to physical limits. Scenarios with an unobstructed person walking will very likely be treatable for a wide speed range for next generation AEB systems.

Test and Analysis Correlation of Form Impact onto Space Shuttle Wing Leading Edge RCC Panel 8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Lyle, Karen H.; Gabrys, Jonathan; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly

2004-01-01

Soon after the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) began their study of the space shuttle Columbia accident, "physics-based" analyses using LS-DYNA were applied to characterize the expected damage to the Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) leading edge from high-speed foam impacts. Forensic evidence quickly led CAIB investigators to concentrate on the left wing leading edge RCC panels. This paper will concentrate on the test of the left-wing RCC panel 8 conducted at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and the correlation with an LS-DYNA analysis. The successful correlation of the LS-DYNA model has resulted in the use of LS-DYNA as a predictive tool for characterizing the threshold of damage for impacts of various debris such as foam, ice, and ablators onto the RCC leading edge for shuttle return-to-flight.

Development of a tool for calculating early internal doses in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident based on atmospheric dispersion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurihara, Osamu; Kim, Eunjoo; Kunishima, Naoaki; Tani, Kotaro; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Furuyama, Kazuo; Hashimoto, Shozo; Akashi, Makoto

2017-09-01

A tool was developed to facilitate the calculation of the early internal doses to residents involved in the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster based on atmospheric transport and dispersion model (ATDM) simulations performed using Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Information 2nd version (WSPEEDI-II) together with personal behavior data containing the history of the whereabouts of individul's after the accident. The tool generates hourly-averaged air concentration data for the simulation grids nearest to an individual's whereabouts using WSPEEDI-II datasets for the subsequent calculation of internal doses due to inhalation. This paper presents an overview of the developed tool and provides tentative comparisons between direct measurement-based and ATDM-based results regarding the internal doses received by 421 persons from whom personal behavior data available.

Predicting injury risk with "New Car Assessment Program" crashworthiness ratings.

PubMed

Jones, I S; Whitfield, R A

1988-12-01

The relationship between crashworthiness ratings produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA's) New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) and the risk of incapacitating injury or death for drivers who are involved in single-car, fixed-object, frontal collisions was examined. The results are based on 6,405 such crashes from the Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident file of the Texas Department of Highways and Public Transportation. The risk of injury was modeled using logistic regression taking into account the NCAP test results for each individual model of car and the intervening effects of car mass, age of the driver, restraint use, and crash severity. Three measures of anthropometric dummy response, Head Injury Criterion (HIC), Chest Deceleration (CD), and femur load were used to indicate vehicle crash test performance. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the results of the NCAP tests and the risk of serious injury or death in actual single-car frontal accidents. In terms of overall injury, chest deceleration was a better predictor than the Head Injury Criterion. For restrained drivers, crash severity, driver age, and chest deceleration were significant parameters for predicting risk of serious injury or death; the risk of injury decreased as chest deceleration decreased. The results were similar for unrestrained drivers although vehicle mass and femur load were also significant factors in the model. The risk of overall injury decreased as chest deceleration decreased but appeared to decrease as femur load increased.

Rapid Prediction of Hematologic Acute Radiation Syndrome in Radiation Injury Patients Using Peripheral Blood Cell Counts.

PubMed

Port, M; Pieper, B; Knie, T; Dörr, H; Ganser, A; Graessle, D; Meineke, V; Abend, M

2017-08-01

Rapid clinical triage of radiation injury patients is essential for determining appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. We examined the utility of blood cell counts (BCCs) in the first three days postirradiation to predict clinical outcome, specifically for hematologic acute radiation syndrome (HARS). We analyzed BCC test samples from radiation accident victims (n = 135) along with their clinical outcome HARS severity scores (H1-4) using the System for Evaluation and Archiving of Radiation Accidents based on Case Histories (SEARCH) database. Data from nonirradiated individuals (H0, n = 132) were collected from an outpatient facility. We created binary categories for severity scores, i.e., 1 (H0 vs. H1-4), 2 (H0-1 vs. H2-4) and 3 (H0-2 vs. H3-4), to assess the discrimination ability of BCCs using unconditional logistic regression analysis. The test sample contained 454 BCCs from 267 individuals. We validated the discrimination ability on a second independent group comprised of 275 BCCs from 252 individuals originating from SEARCH (HARS 1-4), an outpatient facility (H0) and hospitals (e.g., leukemia patients, H4). Individuals with a score of H0 were easily separated from exposed individuals based on developing lymphopenia and granulocytosis. The separation of H0 and H1-4 became more prominent with increasing hematologic severity scores and time. On day 1, lymphocyte counts were most predictive for discriminating binary categories, followed by granulocytes and thrombocytes. For days 2 and 3, an almost complete separation was achieved when BCCs from different days were combined, supporting the measurement of sequential BCC. We found an almost complete discrimination of H0 vs. irradiated individuals during model validation (negative predictive value, NPV > 94%) for all three days, while the correct prediction of exposed individuals increased from day 1 (positive predictive value, PPV 78-89%) to day 3 (PPV > 90%). The models were unable to provide predictions for 10.9% of the test samples, because the PPVs or NPVs did not reach a 95% likelihood defined as the lower limit for a prediction. We developed a prediction model spreadsheet to provide early and prompt diagnostic predictions and therapeutic recommendations including identification of the worried well, requirement of hospitalization or development of severe hematopoietic syndrome. These results improve the provisional classification of HARS. For the final diagnosis, further procedures (sequential diagnosis, retrospective dosimetry, clinical follow-up, etc.) must be taken into account. Clinical outcome of radiation injury patients can be rapidly predicted within the first three days postirradiation using peripheral BCC.

Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

PubMed

Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

2018-06-20

This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2014-12-01

Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

PubMed Central

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

2014-01-01

Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D.; Street, Melissa E.; Syed, S. Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Miller, Patricia A.

2011-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. Method: A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Results: Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from −0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. Conclusions: This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted. PMID:22654239

Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin

1998-11-01

Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.

Traffic dynamics around weaving section influenced by accident: Cellular automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Lin-Peng; Li, Xin-Gang; Lam, William H. K.

2015-07-01

The weaving section, as a typical bottleneck, is one source of vehicle conflicts and an accident-prone area. Traffic accident will block lanes and the road capacity will be reduced. Several models have been established to study the dynamics around traffic bottlenecks. However, little attention has been paid to study the complex traffic dynamics influenced by the combined effects of bottleneck and accident. This paper presents a cellular automaton model to characterize accident-induced traffic behavior around the weaving section. Some effective control measures are proposed and verified for traffic management under accident condition. The total flux as a function of inflow rates, the phase diagrams, the spatial-temporal diagrams, and the density and velocity profiles are presented to analyze the impact of accident. It was shown that the proposed control measures for weaving traffic can improve the capacity of weaving section under both normal and accident conditions; the accidents occurring on median lane in the weaving section are more inclined to cause traffic jam and reduce road capacity; the capacity of weaving section will be greatly reduced when the accident happens downstream the weaving section.

Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

2016-01-01

Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30-70% range, with no significant difference among models ( P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others ( P > 0.05). This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others.

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Prognosis of outcome in adult survivors of road accidents in France: one-year follow-Up in the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Nhac-Vu, Hoang-Thy; Hours, Martine; Chossegros, Laetitia; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Helene; Martin, Jean-Louis; Mazaux, Jean-Michel; Laumon, Bernard

2014-01-01

The consequences of road crashes are various, and few studies have dealt with the multidimensionality of outcomes. The aim of the present study was to assess the multidimensional nature of outcomes one year after a crash and to determine predictive factors that could help in adapting medical and social care to prevent such consequences to improve road crash victims' prognosis. The study population was the 886 respondents to the one-year follow-up from the ESPARR (Etude et Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route du Rhône) cohort, aged ≥ 16 years; the analysis was carried out only on the 616 subjects who fully completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional, and financial status one year after a crash. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering was implemented to produce homogeneous groups according to differences in outcome. Groups were compared using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF, a standard instrument of quality of life, assessing physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment) and the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS), a tool to predict road crash sequelae. Baseline predictive factors for group attribution were analyzed by weighted multinomial logistic regression models. Three hundred seventeen of the 616 subjects (60.1%) were men. Mean age was 36.9 years (SD = 16.5). Five victim groups were identified in terms of consequences at one year: one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) with few problems, one with essentially physical sequelae, one with problems that were essentially both physical and social, and 2 groups with a wider range of problems (one including psychological problems but fewer environmental problems; the last one reported negative physical, psychological, social, and environmental impact; notably, all had post-concussion syndrome [PCS]). There were significant differences between groups in terms of family status, injury severity, and certain types of injury (thorax, spine, lower limbs). Comparison on the WHOQOL-BREF confirmed that groups reporting more adverse outcomes had a lower quality of life. Description of the 5 groups by IIS indicators showed that IIS underestimated physical consequences one year after the crash. In addition to the known prognostic factors such as age, initial injury severity, and injury type, socioeconomic fragility and having a relative involved in the accident emerged as predictive of poor outcome at one year. One year after the crash, victims may still be experiencing multiple problems in terms of not only physical health but also of mental health, social life, and environment. Poor outcome may be predicted from both accident-related factors and socioeconomic fragility. Our results are useful in catching the attention of both clinicians and the public administration regarding victims at risk of suffering from important consequences after an accident. If those suffering head injuries are recognized, it would be very important to better consider and treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or PCS. Furthermore, subjects from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, with or without lower limb injuries, have numerous difficulties after an accident, notably for returning to work. An objective would be to provide them with more specific support. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan; Liu, Yuan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods and Techniques for Risk Prediction of Space Shuttle Upgrades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Chad R.; Pugh, Rich; Safie, Fayssal

1998-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Accident in 1986, NASA has been trying to incorporate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in decisions concerning the Space Shuttle and other NASA projects. One major study NASA is currently conducting is in the PRA area in establishing an overall risk model for the Space Shuttle System. The model is intended to provide a tool to predict the Shuttle risk and to perform sensitivity analyses and trade studies including evaluation of upgrades. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and its prime contractors including Pratt and Whitney (P&W) are part of the NASA team conducting the PRA study. MSFC responsibility involves modeling the External Tank (ET), the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). A major challenge that faced the PRA team is modeling the shuttle upgrades. This mainly includes the P&W High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) and the High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP). The purpose of this paper is to discuss the various methods and techniques used for predicting the risk of the P&W redesigned HPFTP and HPOTP.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Computational modeling of driver speed control with its applications in developing intelligent transportation system to prevent speeding-related accidents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Speeding is the leading contributing factor in fatal accidents in NY state, according to NY State Department of Motor : Vehicle Accidents Statistical Summary (2009). Understanding and modeling speeding and speed control is one of major : challenges i...

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montgomery, Robert; Tomé, Carlos; Liu, Wenfeng

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. CASL has endeavored to improve upon this approach by incorporating a microstructurally-based, atomistically-informed, zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability into the BISON-CASL engineering scale fuel performance code. Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed bymore » Lebensohn and Tome´ [2], has been coupled with BISON-CASL to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of the cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON-CASL and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.« less

Safety climate as a mediator between foundation climates and occupational accidents: a group-level investigation.

PubMed

Wallace, J Craig; Popp, Eric; Mondore, Scott

2006-05-01

Building on recent work in occupational safety and climate, the authors examined 2 organizational foundation climates thought to be antecedents of specific safety climate and the relationships among these climates and occupational accidents. It is believed that both foundation climates (i.e., management-employee relations and organizational support) will predict safety climate, which will in turn mediate the relationship between occupational accidents and these 2 distal foundation climates. Using a sample of 9,429 transportation workers in 253 work groups, the authors tested the proposed relationships at the group level. Results supported all hypotheses. Overall it appears that different climates have direct and indirect effects on occupational accidents.

Social-cognitive correlates of risky adolescent cycling behavior

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Bicycle use entails high safety and health risks especially for adolescents. Most safety education programs aimed at adolescents focus on accident statistics and risk perceptions. This paper proposes the investigation of the social-cognitive correlates of risky cycling behaviors of adolescents prior to developing safety education programs. Method Secondary school students aged 13 to 18 years (n = 1446) filled out questionnaires regarding bicycle behavior, risky intentions, accident experience, and social-cognitive determinants as suggested by the theory of planned behavior. Results Regression analysis revealed that the proximal variables (i.e., self-efficacy, attitudes towards drunk driving, personal norm regarding safekeeping of self and others, and compared risk) were able to predict 17% of the variance of risky behavior and 23% of the variance of risky intentions. The full model explained respectively 29% and 37% of the variance in risky behavior and risky intentions. Adolescents with positive attitudes towards risky behavior and low sense of responsibility report risky behavior, even when having been (close to) an accident. Conclusions Adolescents realize whether they are risk takers or not. This implies that the focus of education programs should not be on risk perceptions, but on decreasing positive attitudes towards alcohol in traffic and increasing sense of responsibility instead. Cognitions regarding near accidents should be studied, the role of safe cycling self-efficacy is unclear. PMID:20624293

Diagnostics of Loss of Coolant Accidents Using SVC and GMDH Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sung Han; No, Young Gyu; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Park, Soo-Yong

2011-02-01

As a means of effectively managing severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is important to identify and diagnose accident initiating events within a short time interval after the accidents by observing the major measured signals. The main objective of this study was to diagnose loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) using artificial intelligence techniques, such as SVC (support vector classification) and GMDH (group method of data handling). In this study, the methodologies of SVC and GMDH models were utilized to discover the break location and estimate the break size of the LOCA, respectively. The 300 accident simulation data (based on MAAP4) were used to develop the SVC and GMDH models, and the 33 test data sets were used to independently confirm whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The measured signals from the reactor coolant system, steam generators, and containment at a nuclear power plant were used as inputs to the models, and the 60 sec time-integrated values of the input signals were used as inputs into the SVC and GMDH models. The simulation results confirmed that the proposed SVC model can identify the break location and the proposed GMDH models can estimate the break size accurately. In addition, even if the measurement errors exist and safety systems actuate, the proposed SVC and GMDH models can discover the break locations without a misclassification and accurately estimate the break size.

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Andersson, Anna K; Chapman, Lee

2011-01-01

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical investigation on super-cooled large droplet icing of fan rotor blade in jet engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isobe, Keisuke; Suzuki, Masaya; Yamamoto, Makoto

2014-10-01

Icing (or ice accretion) is a phenomenon in which super-cooled water droplets impinge and accrete on a body. It is well known that ice accretion on blades and vanes leads to performance degradation and has caused severe accidents. Although various anti-icing and deicing systems have been developed, such accidents still occur. Therefore, it is important to clarify the phenomenon of ice accretion on an aircraft and in a jet engine. However, flight tests for ice accretion are very expensive, and in the wind tunnel it is difficult to reproduce all climate conditions where ice accretion can occur. Therefore, it is expected that computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which can estimate ice accretion in various climate conditions, will be a useful way to predict and understand the ice accretion phenomenon. On the other hand, although the icing caused by super-cooled large droplets (SLD) is very dangerous, the numerical method has not been established yet. This is why SLD icing is characterized by splash and bounce phenomena of droplets and they are very complex in nature. In the present study, we develop an ice accretion code considering the splash and bounce phenomena to predict SLD icing, and the code is applied to a fan rotor blade. The numerical results with and without the SLD icing model are compared. Through this study, the influence of the SLD icing model is numerically clarified.

Lessons Learned from the Wide Field Camera 3 TV1 Test Campaign and Correlation Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peabody, Hume; Stavley, Richard; Bast, William

2007-01-01

In January 2004, shortly after the Columbia accident, future servicing missions to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) were cancelled. In response to this, further work on the Wide Field Camera 3 instrument was ceased. Given the maturity level of the design, a characterization thermal test (TV1) was completed in case the mission was re-instated or an alternate mission found on which to fly the instrument. This thermal test yielded some valuable lessons learned with respect to testing configurations and modeling/correlation practices, including: 1. Ensure that the thermal design can be tested 2. Ensure that the model has sufficient detail for accurate predictions 3. Ensure that the power associated with all active control devices is predicted 4. Avoid unit changes for existing models. This paper documents the difficulties presented when these recommendations were not followed.

Advance of Hazardous Operation Robot and its Application in Special Equipment Accident Rescue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Qin-Da; Zhou, Wei; Zheng, Geng-Feng

A survey of hazardous operation robot is given out in this article. Firstly, the latest researches such as nuclear industry robot, fire-fighting robot and explosive-handling robot are shown. Secondly, existing key technologies and their shortcomings are summarized, including moving mechanism, control system, perceptive technology and power technology. Thirdly, the trend of hazardous operation robot is predicted according to current situation. Finally, characteristics and hazards of special equipment accident, as well as feasibility of hazardous operation robot in the area of special equipment accident rescue are analyzed.

Development of water environment information management and water pollution accident response system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ruan, H.

2009-12-01

In recent years, many water pollution accidents occurred with the rapid economical development. In this study, water environment information management and water pollution accident response system are developed based on geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The system integrated spatial database, attribute database, hydraulic model, and water quality model under a user-friendly interface in a GIS environment. System ran in both Client/Server (C/S) and Browser/Server (B/S) platform which focused on model and inquiry respectively. System provided spatial and attribute data inquiry, water quality evaluation, statics, water pollution accident response case management (opening reservoir etc) and 2D and 3D visualization function, and gave assistant information to make decision on water pollution accident response. Polluted plume in Huaihe River were selected to simulate the transport of pollutes.

Application of the Life Change Unit model for the prevention of accident proneness among small to medium sized industries in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Youngsig; Hahm, Hyojoon; Yang, Sunghwan; Kim, Taegu

2008-10-01

Behavior models have provided an accident proneness concept based on life change unit (LCU) factors. This paper describes the development of a Korean Life Change Unit (KLCU) model for workers and managers in fatal accident areas, as well as an evaluation of its application. Results suggest that death of parents is the highest stress-giving factor for employees of small and medium sized industries a rational finding the viewpoint of Korean culture. The next stress-giving factors were shown to be the death of a spouse or loved ones, followed by the death of close family members, the death of close friends, changes of family members' health, unemployment, and jail terms. It turned out that these factors have a serious effect on industrial accidents and work-related diseases. The death of parents and close friends are ranked higher in the KLCU model than that of Western society. Crucial information for industrial accident prevention in real fields will be provided and the provided information will be useful for safety management programs related to accident prevention.

Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Children after Road Traffic Accidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landolt, Markus A.; Vollrath, Margarete; Timm, Karin; Gnehm, Hanspeter E.; Sennhauser, Felix H.

2005-01-01

Objective: To prospectively assess the prevalence, course, and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs) in children after road traffic accidents (RTAs). Method: Sixty-eight children (6.5-14.5 years old) were interviewed 4-6 weeks and 12 months after an RTA with the Child PTSD Reaction Index (response rate 58.6%). Their mothers (n = 60)…

Self-evaluative appraisals of coping capability and posttraumatic distress following motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Benight, Charles C; Cieslak, Roman; Molton, Ivan R; Johnson, Lesley E

2008-08-01

This study tested the importance of coping self-efficacy (CSE) perceptions and change in perceptions of CSE for recovery from motor vehicle accident (MVA) trauma. Data were collected 7 days following the accident (Time 1; n = 163), 1 month after the accident (Time 2; n = 91), and 3 months after the accident (Time 3; n = 70). Early changes in CSE (i.e., from Time 1 to Time 2) predicted posttraumatic distress at 3 months after MVA trauma, even after controlling for Time 1 or Time 2 posttraumatic distress and other trauma-related variables (i.e., accident responsibility, litigation involvement, and peritraumatic dissociation). Early changes in CSE perceptions, however, neither moderated nor mediated the effects of early posttraumatic distress (Time 1) on 3-month posttraumatic distress. Time 2 CSE levels, however, did mediate the relationship between acute posttraumatic distress (Time 1) and 3-month posttraumatic distress (Time 3). These findings highlight the importance of early interventions aimed at strengthening self-efficacy after MVA trauma. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

2017-11-01

The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

The willingness to pay of parties to traffic accidents for loss of productivity and consolation compensation.

PubMed

Jou, Rong-Chang; Chen, Tzu-Ying

2015-12-01

In this study, willingness to pay (WTP) for loss of productivity and consolation compensation by parties to traffic accidents is investigated using the Tobit model. In addition, WTP is compared to compensation determined by Taiwanese courts. The modelling results showed that variables such as education, average individual monthly income, traffic accident history, past experience of severe traffic accident injuries, the number of working days lost due to a traffic accident, past experience of accepting compensation for traffic accident-caused productivity loss and past experience of accepting consolation compensation caused by traffic accidents have a positive impact on WTP. In addition, average WTP for these two accident costs were obtained. We found that parties to traffic accidents were willing to pay more than 90% of the compensation determined by the court in the scenario of minor and moderate injuries. Parties were willing to pay approximately 80% of the compensation determined by the court for severe injuries, disability and fatality. Therefore, related agencies can use our study findings as the basis for determining the compensation that parties should pay for productivity losses caused by traffic accidents of different types. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe when the most harmful event of the accident occurs later within the accident chain.

Effects of personality on risky driving behavior and accident involvement for Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Yang, Jiaoyan; Du, Feng; Qu, Weina; Gong, Zhun; Sun, Xianghong

2013-01-01

Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of injury-related fatalities in China and pose the most serious threat to driving safety. Driver personality is considered as an effective predictor for risky driving behavior and accident liability. Previous studies have focused on the relationship between personality and risky driving behavior, but only a few of them have explored the effects of personality variables on accident involvement. In addition, few studies have examined the effects of personality on Chinese drivers' risky driving and accident involvement. The present study aimed to examine the effects of personality variables on Chinese drivers' unsafe driving behaviors and accident involvement. Two hundred and twenty-four Chinese drivers aged 20 to 50 were required to complete questionnaires assessing their personality traits (anger, sensation-seeking, altruism, and normlessness), risky driving behaviors (aggressive violations, ordinary violations), and accident involvement (all accidents, serious accidents, at-fault accidents). Multivariate regression analyses, adjusting for gender, age, and overall mileage, were conducted to identify the personality traits related to risky driving behaviors and accident involvement. Participants' personality traits were found to be significantly correlated with both risky driving behavior and accident involvement. Specifically, the traits of anger and normlessness were effective predictors for aggressive violations. The traits of anger, sensation-seeking, normlessness, and altruism were effective predictors for ordinary violations. Moreover, altruism and normlessness were significant predictors for the total number of accidents participants had during the past 3 years. Consistent with previous studies, the present study revealed that personality traits play an important role in predicting Chinese drivers' risky driving behaviors. In addition, Chinese drivers' personality characteristics were also associated with accident involvement.

Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, S. C.; Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y.

2012-07-01

The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCSmore » rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)« less

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

A method to relate chemical accident properties and expert judgements in order to derive useful information for the development of Environment-Accident Index.

PubMed

Scott Andersson, Asa; Tysklind, Mats; Fängmark, Ingrid

2007-08-17

The environment consists of a variety of different compartments and processes that act together in a complex system that complicate the environmental risk assessment after a chemical accident. The Environment-Accident Index (EAI) is an example of a tool based on a strategy to join the properties of a chemical with site-specific properties to facilitate this assessment and to be used in the planning process. In the development of the EAI it is necessary to make an unbiased judgement of relevant variables to include in the formula and to estimate their relative importance. The development of EAI has so far included the assimilation of chemical accidents, selection of a representative set of chemical accidents, and response values (representing effects in the environment after a chemical accident) have been developed by means of an expert panel. The developed responses were then related to the chemical and site-specific properties, through a mathematical model based on multivariate modelling (PLS), to create an improved EAI model. This resulted in EAI(new), a PLS based EAI model connected to a new classification scale. The advantages of EAI(new) compared to the old EAI (EAI(old)) is that it can be calculated without the use of tables, it can estimate the effects for all included responses and make a rough classification of chemical accidents according to the new classification scale. Finally EAI(new) is a more stable model than EAI(old), built on a valid base of accident scenarios which makes it more reliable to use for a variety of chemicals and situations as it covers a broader spectra of accident scenarios. EAI(new) can be expressed as a regression model to facilitate the calculation of the index for persons that do not have access to PLS. Future work can be; an external validation of EAI(new); to complete the formula structure; to adjust the classification scale; and to make a real life evaluation of EAI(new).

Piloted Simulator Evaluation Results of Flight Physics Based Stall Recovery Guidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan; Stepanyan, Vahram; Kaneshige, John; Hardy, Gordon; Shish, Kimberlee; Robinson, Peter

2018-01-01

In recent studies, it has been observed that loss of control in flight is the most frequent primary cause of accidents. A significant share of accidents in this category can be remedied by upset prevention if possible, and by upset recovery if necessary, in this order of priorities. One of the most important upsets to be recovered from is stall. Recent accidents have shown that a correct stall recovery maneuver remains a big challenge in civil aviation, partly due to a lack of pilot training. A possible strategy to support the flight crew in this demanding context is calculating a recovery guidance signal, and showing this signal in an intuitive way on one of the cockpit displays, for example by means of the flight director. Different methods for calculating the recovery signal, one based on fast model predictive control and another using an energy based approach, have been evaluated in four relevant operational scenarios by experienced commercial as well as test pilots in the Vertical Motion Simulator at NASA Ames Research Center. Evaluation results show that this approach could be able to assist the pilots in executing a correct stall recovery maneuver.

FY2016 Ceramic Fuels Development Annual Highlights

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcclellan, Kenneth James

Key challenges for the Advanced Fuels Campaign are the development of fuel technologies to enable major increases in fuel performance (safety, reliability, power and burnup) beyond current technologies, and development of characterization methods and predictive fuel performance models to enable more efficient development and licensing of advanced fuels. Ceramic fuel development activities for fiscal year 2016 fell within the areas of 1) National and International Technical Integration, 2) Advanced Accident Tolerant Ceramic Fuel Development, 3) Advanced Techniques and Reference Materials Development, and 4) Fabrication of Enriched Ceramic Fuels. High uranium density fuels were the focus of the ceramic fuels efforts.more » Accomplishments for FY16 primarily reflect the prioritization of identification and assessment of new ceramic fuels for light water reactors which have enhanced accident tolerance while also maintaining or improving normal operation performance, and exploration of advanced post irradiation examination techniques which will support more efficient testing and qualification of new fuel systems.« less

Effects of ATR-2 Irradiation to High Fluence on Nine RPV Surveillance Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nanstad, Randy K.; Odette, George R.; Almirall, Nathan

2017-05-01

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a light-water reactor (LWR) represents the first line of defense against a release of radiation in case of an accident. Thus, regulations that govern the operation of commercial nuclear power plants require conservative margins of fracture toughness, both during normal operation and under accident scenarios. In the unirradiated condition, the RPV has sufficient fracture toughness such that failure is implausible under any postulated condition, including pressurized thermal shock (PTS) in pressurized water reactors (PWR). In the irradiated condition, however, the fracture toughness of the RPV may be severely degraded, with the degree of toughnessmore » loss dependent on the radiation sensitivity of the materials. The available embrittlement predictive models and our present understanding of radiation damage are not fully quantitative, and do not treat all potentially significant variables and issues, particularly considering extension of operation to 80y.« less

Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David

Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety ofmore » LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.« less

Driver Performance Problems of Intercity Bus Public Transportation Safety in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suraji, A.; Harnen, S.; Wicaksono, A.; Djakfar, L.

2017-11-01

The risk of an inter-city bus public accident can be influenced by various factors such as the driver’s performance. Therefore, knowing the various influential factors related to driver’s performance is very necessary as an effort to realize road traffic safety. This study aims to determine the factors that fall on the accident associated with the driver’s performance and make mathematical modeling factors that affect the accident. Methods of data retrieval were obtained from NTSC secondary data. The data was processed by identifying factors that cause the accident. Furthermore data processing and analysis used the PCA method to obtain mathematical modeling of factors influencing the inter-city bus accidents. The results showed that the main factors that cause accidents are health, discipline, and driver competence.

Workflow interruptions, cognitive failure and near-accidents in health care.

PubMed

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Ebener, Corinne

2015-01-01

Errors are frequent in health care. A specific model was tested that affirms failure in cognitive action regulation to mediate the influence of nurses' workflow interruptions and safety conscientiousness on near-accidents in health care. One hundred and sixty-five nurses from seven Swiss hospitals participated in a questionnaire survey. Structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesised mediation model. Cognitive failure in action regulation significantly mediated the influence of workflow interruptions on near-accidents (p < .05). An indirect path from conscientiousness to near-accidents via cognitive failure in action regulation was also significant (p < .05). Compliance with safety regulations was significantly related to cognitive failure and near-accidents; moreover, cognitive failure mediated the association between compliance and near-accidents (p < .05). Contrary to expectations, compliance with safety regulations was not related to workflow interruptions. Workflow interruptions caused by colleagues, patients and organisational constraints are likely to trigger errors in nursing. Work redesign is recommended to reduce cognitive failure and improve safety of nurses and patients.

Geographic analysis of road accident severity index in Nigeria.

PubMed

Iyanda, Ayodeji E

2018-05-28

Before 2030, deaths from road traffic accidents (RTAs) will surpass cerebrovascular disease, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. Yet, there is little knowledge on the geographic distribution of RTA severity in Nigeria. Accident Severity Index is the proportion of deaths that result from a road accident. This study analysed the geographic pattern of RTA severity based on the data retrieved from Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC). The study predicted a two-year data from a historic road accident data using exponential smoothing technique. To determine spatial autocorrelation, global and local indicators of spatial association were implemented in a geographic information system. Results show significant clusters of high RTA severity among states in the northeast and the northwest of Nigeria. Hence, the findings are discussed from two perspectives: Road traffic law compliance and poor emergency response. Conclusion, the severity of RTA is high in the northern states of Nigeria, hence, RTA remains a public health concern.

Applying data mining techniques to explore factors contributing to occupational injuries in Taiwan's construction industry.

PubMed

Cheng, Ching-Wu; Leu, Sou-Sen; Cheng, Ying-Mei; Wu, Tsung-Chih; Lin, Chen-Chung

2012-09-01

Construction accident research involves the systematic sorting, classification, and encoding of comprehensive databases of injuries and fatalities. The present study explores the causes and distribution of occupational accidents in the Taiwan construction industry by analyzing such a database using the data mining method known as classification and regression tree (CART). Utilizing a database of 1542 accident cases during the period 2000-2009, the study seeks to establish potential cause-and-effect relationships regarding serious occupational accidents in the industry. The results of this study show that the occurrence rules for falls and collapses in both public and private project construction industries serve as key factors to predict the occurrence of occupational injuries. The results of the study provide a framework for improving the safety practices and training programs that are essential to protecting construction workers from occasional or unexpected accidents. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type A behavior pattern, accident optimism and fatalism: an investigation into non-compliance with safety work behaviors among hospital nurses.

PubMed

Ugwu, Fabian O; Onyishi, Ike E; Ugwu, Chidi; Onyishi, Charity N

2015-01-01

Safety work behavior has continued to attract the interest of organizational researchers and practitioners especially in the health sector. The goal of the study was to investigate whether personality type A, accident optimism and fatalism could predict non-compliance with safety work behaviors among hospital nurses. One hundred and fifty-nine nursing staff sampled from three government-owned hospitals in a state in southeast Nigeria, participated in the study. Data were collected through Type A Behavior Scale (TABS), Accident Optimism, Fatalism and Compliance with Safety Behavior (CSB) Scales. Our results showed that personality type A, accident optimism and fatalism were all related to non-compliance with safety work behaviors. Personality type A individuals tend to comply less with safety work behaviors than personality type B individuals. In addition, optimistic and fatalistic views about accidents and existing safety rules also have implications for compliance with safety work behaviors.

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

PubMed

Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

2006-09-01

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

Prediction of movement intention using connectivity within motor-related network: An electrocorticography study.

PubMed

Kang, Byeong Keun; Kim, June Sic; Ryun, Seokyun; Chung, Chun Kee

2018-01-01

Most brain-machine interface (BMI) studies have focused only on the active state of which a BMI user performs specific movement tasks. Therefore, models developed for predicting movements were optimized only for the active state. The models may not be suitable in the idle state during resting. This potential maladaptation could lead to a sudden accident or unintended movement resulting from prediction error. Prediction of movement intention is important to develop a more efficient and reasonable BMI system which could be selectively operated depending on the user's intention. Physical movement is performed through the serial change of brain states: idle, planning, execution, and recovery. The motor networks in the primary motor cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are involved in these movement states. Neuronal communication differs between the states. Therefore, connectivity may change depending on the states. In this study, we investigated the temporal dynamics of connectivity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex to predict movement intention. Movement intention was successfully predicted by connectivity dynamics which may reflect changes in movement states. Furthermore, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is crucial in predicting movement intention to which primary motor cortex contributes. These results suggest that brain connectivity is an excellent approach in predicting movement intention.

Analysis of pellet cladding interaction and creep of U 3SIi2 fuel for use in light water reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, Kathryn E.

Following the accident at the Fukushima plant, enhancing the accident tolerance of the light water reactor (LWR) fleet became a topic of serious discussion. Under the direction of congress, the DOE office of Nuclear Energy added accident tolerant fuel development as a primary component to the existing Advanced Fuels Program. The DOE defines accident tolerant fuels as fuels that "in comparison with the standard UO2- Zircaloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events." To be economically viable, proposed accident tolerant fuels and claddings should be backward compatible with LWR designs, provide significant operating cost improvements such as power uprates, increased fuel burnup, or increased cycle length. In terms of safety, an alternative fuel pellet must have resistance to water corrosion comparable to UO2, thermal conductivity equal to or larger than that of UO2, and a melting temperature that allows the material to remain solid under power reactor conditions. Among the candidates, U3Si2 has a number of advantageous thermophysical properties, including; high density, high thermal conductivity at room temperature, and a high melting temperature. These properties support its use as an accident tolerant fuel while its high uranium density is capable of supporting uprates to the LWR fleet. This research characterizes U3Si2 pellets and analyzes U3Si2 under light water reactor conditions using the fuel performance code BISON. While some thermophysical properties for U3Si2 have been found in the literature, the irradiation behavior is sparse and limited to experience with dispersion fuels. Accordingly, the creep behavior for U3Si2 has been unknown, making it difficult to predict fuel-cladding mechanical behavior. This information is essential for designing accident tolerant fuel systems where ceramic claddings, like silicon carbide (SiC) are proposed. This research provides a model for both the thermal and irradiation creep behavior for U3Si2. This body of research is comprised of both experimental and modeling components. Characterization of the fuel microstructure includes; optical microscopy with pore and grain size analysis, helium pycnometry for density determination, mercury intrusion porosimetry, compositional analysis in the form of XRD, second phase identification using EDX, electrical resistance measurement via four point probe, determination of hardness and toughness through Vickers indentation testing, and determination of elastic properties using the impulse excitation method. Post-sintering grain size data allowed for the determination of grain boundary activation energy and diffusion coefficients, which were used to develop creep models. This was extended to lattice and irradiation enhanced diffusion in order to develop a U3Si2 creep model over thermal and irradiation creep regimes. In addition to the creep model, thermal and swelling behavior models for U3Si2 were implemented into the BISON fuel performance code. A series of simulations evaluated the performance and behavior of U3Si2 under typical light water reactor conditions with advanced SiC ceramic cladding. Simulation results show that fuel creep relieves stress in the ceramic cladding and postpones the. moment of fuel-clad contact. However, the stress reduction to the cladding is minimal because the fuel creep rate is low while the swelling rate is high. Future work should include the investigation of monolithic U3Si2 irradiation swelling since the current model relies upon the swelling data of U3Si2 particles in a metallic dispersion fuel. Additionally, planned thermal creep testing at the University of South Carolina can provide confirmation of the U3Si2 creep model contained herein.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients

PubMed Central

Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

2016-01-01

Background: Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. Results: A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30–70% range, with no significant difference among models (P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others (P > 0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others. PMID:27904602

Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-04-01

Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Improving a prediction system for oil spills in the Yellow Sea: effect of tides on subtidal flow.

PubMed

Kim, Chang-Sin; Cho, Yang-Ki; Choi, Byoung-Ju; Jung, Kyung Tae; You, Sung Hyup

2013-03-15

A multi-nested prediction system for the Yellow Sea using drifter trajectory simulations was developed to predict the movements of an oil spill after the MV Hebei Spirit accident. The speeds of the oil spill trajectories predicted by the model without tidal forcing were substantially faster than the observations; however, predictions taking into account the tides, including both tidal cycle and subtidal periods, were satisfactorily improved. Subtidal flow in the simulation without tides was stronger than in that with tides because of reduced frictional effects. Friction induced by tidal stress decelerated the southward subtidal flows driven by northwesterly winter winds along the Korean coast of the Yellow Sea. These results strongly suggest that in order to produce accurate predictions of oil spill trajectories, simulations must include tidal effects, such as variations within a tidal cycle and advections over longer time scales in tide-dominated areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seveso 1986, Chernobyl 1976: a physicist' look at 2 ecological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratti, S.

2004-05-01

Seveso suffered a chemical accident with a severe loss of supertoxic material (TCCD) released in the atmosphere; Chernobyl was a world known nuclear accident. The pollution induced by the two accident are analysed in term of fractal models. The first case involved a limited micro ecological system; the second one spread over a macro ecological system. The pollution is reproduced by means of simple Fractal Sum of Pulses models in the Seveso region; for the Chernobyl accident in northern Italy and in several european Countries. The 2 accidents are also analysed in terms of Universal Multifractals showing that thethe parameters α and C1 are those describing respectively rainfall (Seveso) and cloud formation (Chernobyl).

Emergency Preparedness technology support to the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) of the United Kingdom. Appendix A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O`Kula, K.R.

1994-03-01

The Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) of the United Kingdom (UK) suggested the use of an accident progression logic model method developed by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for K Reactor to predict the magnitude and timing of radioactivity releases (the source term) based on an advanced logic model methodology. Predicted releases are output from the personal computer-based model in a level-of-confidence format. Additional technical discussions eventually led to a request from the NII to develop a proposal for assembling a similar technology to predict source terms for the UK`s advanced gas-cooled reactor (AGR) type.more » To respond to this request, WSRC is submitting a proposal to provide contractual assistance as specified in the Scope of Work. The work will produce, document, and transfer technology associated with a Decision-Oriented Source Term Estimator for Emergency Preparedness (DOSE-EP) for the NII to apply to AGRs in the United Kingdom. This document, Appendix A is a part of this proposal.« less

Acute Radiation Syndrome Severity Score System in Mouse Total-Body Irradiation Model.

PubMed

Ossetrova, Natalia I; Ney, Patrick H; Condliffe, Donald P; Krasnopolsky, Katya; Hieber, Kevin P

2016-08-01

Radiation accidents or terrorist attacks can result in serious consequences for the civilian population and for military personnel responding to such emergencies. The early medical management situation requires quantitative indications for early initiation of cytokine therapy in individuals exposed to life-threatening radiation doses and effective triage tools for first responders in mass-casualty radiological incidents. Previously established animal (Mus musculus, Macaca mulatta) total-body irradiation (γ-exposure) models have evaluated a panel of radiation-responsive proteins that, together with peripheral blood cell counts, create a multiparametic dose-predictive algorithm with a threshold for detection of ~1 Gy from 1 to 7 d after exposure as well as demonstrate the acute radiation syndrome severity score systems created similar to the Medical Treatment Protocols for Radiation Accident Victims developed by Fliedner and colleagues. The authors present a further demonstration of the acute radiation sickness severity score system in a mouse (CD2F1, males) TBI model (1-14 Gy, Co γ-rays at 0.6 Gy min) based on multiple biodosimetric endpoints. This includes the acute radiation sickness severity Observational Grading System, survival rate, weight changes, temperature, peripheral blood cell counts and radiation-responsive protein expression profile: Flt-3 ligand, interleukin 6, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, thrombopoietin, erythropoietin, and serum amyloid A. Results show that use of the multiple-parameter severity score system facilitates identification of animals requiring enhanced monitoring after irradiation and that proteomics are a complementary approach to conventional biodosimetry for early assessment of radiation exposure, enhancing accuracy and discrimination index for acute radiation sickness response categories and early prediction of outcome.

Deep particle bed dryout model based on flooding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuan, P.

1987-01-01

Examination of the damaged Three Mile island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor indicates that a deep (approx. 1-m) bed of relatively large (approx. 1-mm) particles was formed in the core. Cooling of such beds is crucial to the arrest of core damage progression. The Lipinski model, based on flows in the bed, has been used to predict the coolability, but uncertainties exist in the turbulent permeability. Models based on flooding at the top of the bed either have a dimensional viscosity term, or no viscosity dependence, thus limiting their applicability. This paper presents a dimensionless correlation based on flooding data thatmore » involves a liquid Reynolds number. The derived dryout model from this correlation is compared with data for deep beds of large particles at atmospheric pressure, and with other models over a wide pressure range. It is concluded that the present model can give quite accurate predictions for the dryout heat flux of particle beds formed during a light water reactor accident and it is easy to use and agrees with the Lipinski n = 5 model, which requires iterative calculations.« less

TRAC-PF1 code verification with data from the OTIS test facility. [Once-Through Intergral System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Childerson, M.T.; Fujita, R.K.

1985-01-01

A computer code (TRAC-PF1/MOD1) developed for predicting transient thermal and hydraulic integral nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) response was benchmarked. Post-small break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) data from a scaled, experimental facility, designated the One-Through Integral System (OTIS), were obtained for the Babcock and Wilcox NSSS and compared to TRAC predictions. The OTIS tests provided a challenging small break LOCA data set for TRAC verification. The major phases of a small break LOCA observed in the OTIS tests included pressurizer draining and loop saturation, intermittent reactor coolant system circulation, boiler-condenser mode, and the initial stages of refill. The TRAC code wasmore » successful in predicting OTIS loop conditions (system pressures and temperatures) after modification of the steam generator model. In particular, the code predicted both pool and auxiliary-feedwater initiated boiler-condenser mode heat transfer.« less

Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model.

PubMed

Michalaki, Paraskevi; Quddus, Mohammed A; Pitfield, David; Huetson, Andrew

2015-12-01

The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

PubMed

Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

2015-06-19

Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

2014-12-01

Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

2016-11-01

Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-06-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forestmore » compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.« less

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.

2013-01-01

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

PubMed

Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

2013-08-01

To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on accidents involving two-wheeled vehicles that most often involves a single person, unskilled, male, at nighttime, on weekends and on roads where they travel at higher speeds.

Performance of U3Si2 Fuel in a Reactivity Insertion Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Lap Y.; Cuadra, Arantxa; Todosow, Michael

In this study we examined the performance of the U3Si2 fuel cladded with Zircaloy (Zr) in a reactivity insertion accident (RIA) in a PWR core. The power excursion as a result of a $1 reactivity insertion was calculated by a TRACE PWR plant model using point-kinetics, for alternative cores with UO2 and U3Si2 fuel assemblies. The point-kinetics parameters (feedback coefficients, prompt-neutron lifetime and group constants for six delayed-neutron groups) were obtained from beginning-of-cycle equilibrium full core calculations with PARCS. In the PARCS core calculations, the few-group parameters were developed utilizing the TRITON/NEWT tools in the SCALE package. In order tomore » assess the fuel response in finer detail (e.g. the maximum fuel temperature) the power shape and thermal boundary conditions from the TRACE/PARCS calculations were used to drive a BISON model of a fuel pin with U3Si2 and UO2 respectively. For a $1 reactivity transient both TRACE and BISON predicted a higher maximum fuel temperature for the UO2 fuel than the U3Si2 fuel. Furthermore, BISON is noted to calculate a narrower gap and a higher gap heat transfer coefficient than TRACE. This resulted in BISON predicting consistently lower fuel temperatures than TRACE. This study also provides a systematic comparison between TRACE and BISON using consistent transient boundary conditions. The TRACE analysis of the RIA only reflects the core-wide response in power. A refinement to the analysis would be to predict the local peaking in a three-dimensional core as a result of control rod ejection.« less

A Finite Element Model of a Midsize Male for Simulating Pedestrian Accidents.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Pak, Wansoo; Meng, Yunzhu; Schap, Jeremy; Koya, Bharath; Gayzik, Scott

2018-01-01

Pedestrians represent one of the most vulnerable road users and comprise nearly 22% the road crash-related fatalities in the world. Therefore, protection of pedestrians in car-to-pedestrian collisions (CPC) has recently generated increased attention with regulations involving three subsystem tests. The development of a finite element (FE) pedestrian model could provide a complementary component that characterizes the whole-body response of vehicle-pedestrian interactions and assesses the pedestrian injuries. The main goal of this study was to develop and to validate a simplified full body FE model corresponding to a 50th male pedestrian in standing posture (M50-PS). The FE model mesh and defined material properties are based on a 50th percentile male occupant model. The lower limb-pelvis and lumbar spine regions of the human model were validated against the postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) test data recorded in four-point lateral knee bending tests, pelvic\\abdomen\\shoulder\\thoracic impact tests, and lumbar spine bending tests. Then, a pedestrian-to-vehicle impact simulation was performed using the whole pedestrian model, and the results were compared to corresponding PMHS tests. Overall, the simulation results showed that lower leg response is mostly within the boundaries of PMHS corridors. In addition, the model shows the capability to predict the most common lower extremity injuries observed in pedestrian accidents. Generally, the validated pedestrian model may be used by safety researchers in the design of front ends of new vehicles in order to increase pedestrian protection.

Simulation and assessment of SO2 toxic environment after ignition of uncontrolled sour gas flow of well blowout in hills.

PubMed

Zhu, Yuan; Chen, Guo-ming

2010-06-15

To study the sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) toxic environment after the ignition of uncontrolled sour gas flow of well blowout, we propose an integrated model to simulate the accident scenario and assess the consequences of SO(2) poisoning. The accident simulation is carried out based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which is composed of well blowout dynamics, combustion of sour gas, and products dispersion. Furthermore, detailed complex terrains are built and boundary layer flows are simulated according to Pasquill stability classes. Then based on the estimated exposure dose derived from the toxic dose-response relationship, quantitative assessment is carried out by using equivalent emergency response planning guideline (ERPG) concentration. In this case study, the contaminated areas are graded into three levels, and the areas, maximal influence distances, and main trajectories are predicted. We show that wind drives the contamination and its distribution to spread downwind, and terrains change the distribution shape through spatial aggregation and obstacles. As a result, the most dangerous regions are the downwind areas, the foot of the slopes, and depression areas such as valleys. These cause unfavorable influences on emergency response for accident control and public evacuation. In addition, the effectiveness of controlling the number of deaths by employing ignition is verified in theory. Based on the assessment results, we propose some suggestions for risk assessment, emergency response and accident decision making. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Realization of Drilling Fault Diagnosis Based on Hybrid Programming with Matlab and VB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiangping; Hu, Yingcai

This paper presents a method using hybrid programming with Matlab and VB based on ActiveX to design the system of drilling accident prediction and diagnosis. So that the powerful calculating function and graphical display function of Matlab and visual development interface of VB are combined fully. The main interface of the diagnosis system is compiled in VB,and the analysis and fault diagnosis are implemented by neural network tool boxes in Matlab.The system has favorable interactive interface,and the fault example validation shows that the diagnosis result is feasible and can meet the demands of drilling accident prediction and diagnosis.

A multi-agent safety response model in the construction industry.

PubMed

Meliá, José L

2015-01-01

The construction industry is one of the sectors with the highest accident rates and the most serious accidents. A multi-agent safety response approach allows a useful diagnostic tool in order to understand factors affecting risk and accidents. The special features of the construction sector can influence the relationships among safety responses along the model of safety influences. The purpose of this paper is to test a model explaining risk and work-related accidents in the construction industry as a result of the safety responses of the organization, the supervisors, the co-workers and the worker. 374 construction employees belonging to 64 small Spanish construction companies working for two main companies participated in the study. Safety responses were measured using a 45-item Likert-type questionnaire. The structure of the measure was analyzed using factor analysis and the model of effects was tested using a structural equation model. Factor analysis clearly identifies the multi-agent safety dimensions hypothesized. The proposed safety response model of work-related accidents, involving construction specific results, showed a good fit. The multi-agent safety response approach to safety climate is a useful framework for the assessment of organizational and behavioral risks in construction.

Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

PubMed

Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

2007-05-01

This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: A Real-Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) Designed for the Operational Prediction of Hazardous Aviation Turbulence Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Lux, Kevin M.; Cetola, Jeffrey D.; Huffman, Allan W.; Riordan, Allen J.; Slusser, Sarah W.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Charney, Joseph J.; Waight, Kenneth T.

2004-01-01

Real-time prediction of environments predisposed to producing moderate-severe aviation turbulence is studied. We describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real time on a university work station in support of NASA Langley Research Center s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products, including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally, there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross-section plot products are provided from 16 000 to 46 000 ft in 2000-ft intervals. Products are available every 3 hours at the 60- and 30-km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15-km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.

Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: An analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ihueze, Chukwutoo C; Onwurah, Uchendu O

2018-03-01

One of the major problems in the world today is the rate of road traffic crashes and deaths on our roads. Majority of these deaths occur in low-and-middle income countries including Nigeria. This study analyzed road traffic crashes in Anambra State, Nigeria with the intention of developing accurate predictive models for forecasting crash frequency in the State using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) modelling techniques. The result showed that ARIMAX model outperformed the ARIMA (1,1,1) model generated when their performances were compared using the lower Bayesian information criterion, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error; and higher coefficient of determination (R-Squared) as accuracy measures. The findings of this study reveal that incorporating human, vehicle and environmental related factors in time series analysis of crash dataset produces a more robust predictive model than solely using aggregated crash count. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on road traffic safety and provides an approach to forecasting using many human, vehicle and environmental factors. The recommendations made in this study if applied will help in reducing the number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ex-Vessel Core Melt Modeling Comparison between MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH and MELCOR 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W.

System-level code analyses by both United States and international researchers predict major core melting, bottom head failure, and corium-concrete interaction for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1). Although system codes such as MELCOR and MAAP are capable of capturing a wide range of accident phenomena, they currently do not contain detailed models for evaluating some ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes containing more detailed modeling are available for melt spreading such as MELTSPREAD as well as long-term molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) and debris coolability such as CORQUENCH. In a preceding study, Enhanced Ex-Vessel Analysis for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1: Meltmore » Spreading and Core-Concrete Interaction Analyses with MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH, the MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH codes predicted the 1F1 core melt readily cooled in contrast to predictions by MELCOR. The user community has taken notice and is in the process of updating their systems codes; specifically MAAP and MELCOR, to improve and reduce conservatism in their ex-vessel core melt models. This report investigates why the MELCOR v2.1 code, compared to the MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH 3.03 codes, yield differing predictions of ex-vessel melt progression. To accomplish this, the differences in the treatment of the ex-vessel melt with respect to melt spreading and long-term coolability are examined. The differences in modeling approaches are summarized, and a comparison of example code predictions is provided.« less

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

2011-07-01

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From military to civil loadings: Preliminary numerical-based thorax injury criteria investigations.

PubMed

Goumtcha, Aristide Awoukeng; Bodo, Michèle; Taddei, Lorenzo; Roth, Sébastien

2016-03-01

Effects of the impact of a mechanical structure on the human body are of great interest in the understanding of body trauma. Experimental tests have led to first conclusions about the dangerousness of an impact observing impact forces or displacement time history with PMHS (Post Mortem human Subjects). They have allowed providing interesting data for the development and the validation of numerical biomechanical models. These models, widely used in the framework of automotive crashworthiness, have led to the development of numerical-based injury criteria and tolerance thresholds. The aim of this process is to improve the safety of mechanical structures in interaction with the body. In a military context, investigations both at experimental and numerical level are less successfully completed. For both military and civil frameworks, the literature list a number of numerical analysis trying to propose injury mechanisms, and tolerance thresholds based on biofidelic Finite Element (FE) models of different part of the human body. However the link between both frameworks is not obvious, since lots of parameters are different: great mass impacts at relatively low velocity for civil impacts (falls, automotive crashworthiness) and low mass at very high velocity for military loadings (ballistic, blast). In this study, different accident cases were investigated, and replicated with a previously developed and validated FE model of the human thorax named Hermaphrodite Universal Biomechanical YX model (HUBYX model). These previous validations included replications of standard experimental tests often used to validate models in the context of automotive industry, experimental ballistic tests in high speed dynamic impact and also numerical replication of blast loading test ensuring its biofidelity. In order to extend the use of this model in other frameworks, some real-world accidents were reconstructed, and consequences of these loadings on the FE model were explored. These various numerical replications of accident coming from different contexts raise the question about the ability of a FE model to correctly predict several kinds of trauma, from blast or ballistic impacts to falls, sports or automotive ones in a context of numerical injury mechanisms and tolerance limits investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record.

PubMed

Li, Yanyan; Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Zhang, Guangnan

2018-02-01

Fatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated. In this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005-2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared. Some variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection. Based on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents. This finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city.

PubMed

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

2017-01-01

In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R 2 . Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs.

Model regulations and public education for rural-suburban pedestrian safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-08-01

The objectives of this study were to review the rural-suburban pedestrian accident data (Knoblauch, 1977) and freeway pedestrian accident data (Knoblauch, Moore and Schmitz, 1976) and determine which accident types were amenable to countermeasures de...

Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

1996-07-01

The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the generalmore » juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Predicting motor vehicle collisions using Bayesian neural network models: an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Xie, Yuanchang; Lord, Dominique; Zhang, Yunlong

2007-09-01

Statistical models have frequently been used in highway safety studies. They can be utilized for various purposes, including establishing relationships between variables, screening covariates and predicting values. Generalized linear models (GLM) and hierarchical Bayes models (HBM) have been the most common types of model favored by transportation safety analysts. Over the last few years, researchers have proposed the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for modeling the phenomenon under study. Compared to GLMs and HBMs, BPNNs have received much less attention in highway safety modeling. The reasons are attributed to the complexity for estimating this kind of model as well as the problem related to "over-fitting" the data. To circumvent the latter problem, some statisticians have proposed the use of Bayesian neural network (BNN) models. These models have been shown to perform better than BPNN models while at the same time reducing the difficulty associated with over-fitting the data. The objective of this study is to evaluate the application of BNN models for predicting motor vehicle crashes. To accomplish this objective, a series of models was estimated using data collected on rural frontage roads in Texas. Three types of models were compared: BPNN, BNN and the negative binomial (NB) regression models. The results of this study show that in general both types of neural network models perform better than the NB regression model in terms of data prediction. Although the BPNN model can occasionally provide better or approximately equivalent prediction performance compared to the BNN model, in most cases its prediction performance is worse than the BNN model. In addition, the data fitting performance of the BPNN model is consistently worse than the BNN model, which suggests that the BNN model has better generalization abilities than the BPNN model and can effectively alleviate the over-fitting problem without significantly compromising the nonlinear approximation ability. The results also show that BNNs could be used for other useful analyses in highway safety, including the development of accident modification factors and for improving the prediction capabilities for evaluating different highway design alternatives.

Development and Validation of Accident Models for FeCrAl Cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean

2016-08-01

The purpose of this milestone report is to present the work completed in regards to material model development for FeCrAl cladding and highlight the results of applying these models to Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCA) and Station Blackouts (SBO). With the limited experimental data available (essentially only the data used to create the models) true validation is not possible. In the absence of another alternative, qualitative comparisons during postulated accident scenarios between FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 cladded rods have been completed demonstrating the superior performance of FeCrAl.

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

The effect of road characteristics on motorcycle accident in Batu east Java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abusini, Sobri

2013-09-01

Safe of transportation on road is global problem with not only transportation problem, but also social teritory problem in sosial life. WHO pay attention to safe transportation on road to decide healthy day in the world 2004 with caption: Road Safety is no Accident. WHO is clariafy that road accident level in the world have to reach 1.2 mellion victim death and over 30 mellion injuries every year. As much 85% sacrifice death are accident in develop state, where vehicle number only 32% from vehicle number in the world. That becouse as the objective is to decide influence road charakteristics geometrics for motorcycle accident in Batu East Java Indonesia. Using some statistical analysis it is found that the best-fit motorcycle accident model is: Acc = 0,009F0,703exp(-0,334SW-0,361G+0.077S) Where: Acc = number of accident, F = Flow, pcu/hr, SW = shoulder width (m), S = speed, km/hr, G = Gradient (0,1) The model shows that the affecting factors are flow, shoulder width and speed, therefore local government should improve some related factor (flow, shoulder width, Gradient and speed) that can reduce the number of motorcycle accident at crossing road in Batu.

The effect of road and environmental characteristics on pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana.

PubMed

Aidoo, Eric Nimako; Amoh-Gyimah, Richard; Ackaah, Williams

2013-04-01

The number of pedestrians who have died as a result of being hit by vehicles has increased in recent years, in addition to vehicle passenger deaths. Many pedestrians who were involved in road traffic accident died as a result of the driver leaving the pedestrian who was struck unattended at the scene of the accident. This paper seeks to determine the effect of road and environmental characteristics on pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana. Using pedestrian accident data extracted from the National Road Traffic Accident Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana, a binary logit model was employed in the analysis. The results from the estimated model indicate that fatal accidents, unclear weather, nighttime conditions, and straight and flat road sections without medians and junctions significantly increase the likelihood that the vehicle driver will leave the scene after hitting a pedestrian. Thus, integrating median separation and speed humps into road design and construction and installing street lights will help to curb the problem of pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgievskiy, Vladimir

2007-07-01

It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the basemore » of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on the base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are following: - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 75-93% of Commitment Effective Dose had been formed; - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 85-90% of damage from radiation exposure had been formed. During the next 50 years (the late phase of accident) only 10-15% of damage from radiation exposure will have been formed; - Remedial actions (agricultural remedial actions as most effective) in Ukraine are intended for reduction of the damage from consumption of production which is contaminated in the late phase of accident. I.e. agricultural remedial actions have been intended for minimization only 10 % of the total damage from radiation exposure; - Medical countermeasures can minimize radiation exposure damage by an order of magnitude greater than agricultural countermeasures. - Thus, retrospection of nuclear accident has essentially changed type of remedial actions and has given a chance to increase effectiveness of spending by an order of magnitude. This example illustrates that in order to optimize remedial actions it is required to use data of retrospection of nuclear accidents in all cases when monitoring in the early and (or) intermediate phases is unsatisfactory. (author)« less

Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of an atmospheric dispersion model with an improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, G.; Chino, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Terada, H.; Ota, M.; Nagai, H.; Kajino, M.; Draxler, R.; Hort, M. C.; Malo, A.; Torii, T.; Sanada, Y.

2015-01-01

Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate the detailed atmospheric releases during the accident using a reverse estimation method which calculates the release rates of radionuclides by comparing measurements of air concentration of a radionuclide or its dose rate in the environment with the ones calculated by atmospheric and oceanic transport, dispersion and deposition models. The atmospheric and oceanic models used are WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN-FDM (Finite difference oceanic dispersion model), both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fog-water depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation, and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to the FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (safety relief valve) was opened three times at Unit 2, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates. The simulation by WSPEEDI-II using the new source term reproduced the local and regional patterns of cumulative surface deposition of total 131I and 137Cs and air dose rate obtained by airborne surveys. The new source term was also tested using three atmospheric dispersion models (Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d'ordre zéro: MLDP0, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model: HYSPLIT, and Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment: NAME) for regional and global calculations, and the calculated results showed good agreement with observed air concentration and surface deposition of 137Cs in eastern Japan.

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents. Part 1; 44 Case Study Synoptic Observational Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Huffman, Allan W.; Lux, Kevin M.; Charney, Joseph J.; Riordan, Allan J.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Proctor, Fred H. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A 44 case study analysis of the large-scale atmospheric structure associated with development of accident-producing aircraft turbulence is described. Categorization is a function of the accident location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and the turbulence category, which classifies disturbances. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalyses data sets and satellite imagery are employed to diagnose synoptic scale predictor fields associated with the large-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These analyses indicate a predominance of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of a jet stream at the synoptic scale. Typically, a flow curvature region is just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is within 100 km of the accident, vertical motion is upward, absolute vorticity is low, vertical wind shear is increasing, and horizontal cold advection is substantial. The most consistent predictor is upstream flow curvature and nearby convection is the second most frequent predictor.

Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

2014-05-01

A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

76 FR 35330 - Airworthiness Directives; Robinson Helicopter Company Model (Robinson) R22, R22 Alpha, R22 Beta...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-17

... necessary rework. This amendment is prompted by a fatal accident in Israel. We have also included responses... accident due to blade delamination occurred in Israel. The accident investigation revealed that the...

Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Wotawa, G.

2012-05-01

Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0-13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1-24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0-13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3-7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and climate model predictions.

Safety leadership at construction sites: the importance of rule-oriented and participative leadership.

PubMed

Grill, Martin; Pousette, Anders; Nielsen, Kent; Grytnes, Regine; Törner, Marianne

2017-07-01

Objectives The construction industry accounted for >20% of all fatal occupational accidents in Europe in 2014. Leadership is an essential antecedent to occupational safety. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented, participative, and laissez-faire leadership on safety climate, safety behavior, and accidents in the Swedish and Danish construction industry. Sweden and Denmark are similar countries but have a large difference in occupational accidents rates. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among a random sample of construction workers in both countries: 811 construction workers from 85 sites responded, resulting in site and individual response rates of 73% and 64%, respectively. Results The results indicated that transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented and participative leadership predict positive safety outcomes, and laissez-faire leadership predict negative safety outcomes. For example, rule-oriented leadership predicts a superior safety climate (β=0.40, P<0.001), enhanced safety behavior (β=0.15, P<0.001), and fewer accidents [odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.62-0.98]. The effect of rule-oriented leadership on workers' safety behavior was moderated by the level of participative leadership (β=0.10, P<0.001), suggesting that when rules and plans are established in a collaborative manner, workers' motivation to comply with safety regulations and participate in proactive safety activities is elevated. The influence of leadership behaviors on safety outcomes were largely similar in Sweden and Denmark. Rule-oriented and participative leadership were more common in the Swedish than Danish construction industry, which may partly explain the difference in occupational accident rates. Conclusions Applying less laissez-faire leadership and more transformational, active transactional, participative and rule-oriented leadership appears to be an effective way for construction site managers to improve occupational safety in the industry.

Serious injury prediction algorithm based on large-scale data and under-triage control.

PubMed

Nishimoto, Tetsuya; Mukaigawa, Kosuke; Tominaga, Shigeru; Lubbe, Nils; Kiuchi, Toru; Motomura, Tomokazu; Matsumoto, Hisashi

2017-01-01

The present study was undertaken to construct an algorithm for an advanced automatic collision notification system based on national traffic accident data compiled by Japanese police. While US research into the development of a serious-injury prediction algorithm is based on a logistic regression algorithm using the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System, the present injury prediction algorithm was based on comprehensive police data covering all accidents that occurred across Japan. The particular focus of this research is to improve the rescue of injured vehicle occupants in traffic accidents, and the present algorithm assumes the use of an onboard event data recorder data from which risk factors such as pseudo delta-V, vehicle impact location, seatbelt wearing or non-wearing, involvement in a single impact or multiple impact crash and the occupant's age can be derived. As a result, a simple and handy algorithm suited for onboard vehicle installation was constructed from a sample of half of the available police data. The other half of the police data was applied to the validation testing of this new algorithm using receiver operating characteristic analysis. An additional validation was conducted using in-depth investigation of accident injuries in collaboration with prospective host emergency care institutes. The validated algorithm, named the TOYOTA-Nihon University algorithm, proved to be as useful as the US URGENCY and other existing algorithms. Furthermore, an under-triage control analysis found that the present algorithm could achieve an under-triage rate of less than 10% by setting a threshold of 8.3%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

2011-01-01

To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

Numerical reconstruction and injury biomechanism in a car-pedestrian crash accident.

PubMed

Zou, Dong-Hua; Li, Zheng-Dong; Shao, Yu; Feng, Hao; Chen, Jian-Guo; Liu, Ning-Guo; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yi-Jiu

2012-12-01

To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification. An integration of multi-body dynamic, finite element (FE), and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident. The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy. The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model. The collision FE models of head and leg, developed from CT scans of human remains, were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters. The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress, relative displacement, strain and stress fringes. The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries, illustrated through the FE methods, were consistent with the classical injury theories. The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

Effect of mitral regurgitation on cerebrovascular accidents in patients with atrial fibrillation and left atrial thrombus.

PubMed

Nair, Chandra K; Aronow, Wilbert S; Shen, Xuedong; Anand, Kishlay; Holmberg, Mark J; Esterbrooks, Dennis J

2009-11-01

The effect of mitral regurgitation (MR) on the incidence of new cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and left atrial thrombus (LAT) is unknown. To investigate the effect of MR in patients with AF and LAT on new CVA and mortality. Eighty nine consecutive patients, mean age 71 years, with AF and LAT documented by transesophageal echocardiography were investigated to determine the prevalence and severity of MR and the association of the severity of MR with new cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) and mortality at 34-mo follow-up. Of 89 patients, 1 + MR was present in 23 patients (26%), 2 + MR in 44 patients (50%), 3 + MR in 17 patients (19%), and 4 + MR in 3 patients (4%). Mean follow-up was 34 +/- 28 mo. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that the severity of increased MR did not significantly increase new CVA or mortality at 34-mo follow-up. The only variable predictive of mortality was left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and with every unit increase in LVEF, the risk decreased by 3%. MR occurred in 87 of 89 patients (98%) with AF and LAT. There was no association between the severity of MR and the incidence of CVA or mortality.

Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

PubMed

Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

2016-06-01

April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Scientific basis for modelling and calculation of acoustic vibrations in the nuclear power plant coolant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proskuryakov, K. N.

2017-11-01

Created new scientific direction: “Diagnosis, prognosis and prevention of vibration - acoustic resonances in the nuclear power plant (NPP) equipment. The possibility of using methods for calculating and analyzing electric oscillation systems in the study of the properties of acoustic systems with a two-phase medium is proved, based on the similarity of the differential equations describing the state of these systems. Is shown that the developed methods can be used to predict and prevent the occurrence of vibration - acoustic resonances in the NPP equipment. Is shown that the volume of pressurizer at NPPs with VVER and PWR as well as boiling water reactor that exploded at Japan’s NPP Fukushima Daiichi is a Helmholtz resonator, which contain water and steam volumes and able many times increases the impact on them of outside periodic oscillations. Paper presents most important results published long before the severe accidents at NPPs Three Mile Island (TMI), Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi that could be used for the prediction of a severe accident scenario, identification of measuring data and process control in order to minimize the damage. Worked out results also could be useful in another industrial technologies based on applications of single and two-phase flows.

Optical measures of dust velocities and direction during loss of vacuum accidents in confined environment and correlation between dust positions and properties with the resuspension degrees and the velocity modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrea, Malizia; Rossi, Riccardo; Gaudio, Pasquale

2017-08-01

Dust explosions are dangerous events that still today represent a risk to all the industries that produce and/or handle combustible dust like the agro-alimentary, pharmaceutical and energy ones. When a dust cloud is dispersed in an oxidant gas, like air, it may reach the explosive concentration range. A model to predict the dust critical conditions, that can cause explosions, is a key factor for safety of operators and the security of the plants. The key point to predict this dust resuspension is to measure the velocity vectors of dust under the accidental conditions. In order to achieve this goal the authors have developed an experimental facility, STARDUST-U, which allow to obtain different conditions of temperature and pressurization rates characteristic of accidents in confined environment. The authors have developed also optical methods and software to analyse different dust resuspension phenomena under different conditions in confined environment. In this paper, the author will present how they measure the dust velocity vectors in different experimental conditions (and for different type of dusts) and how they have related the dust characteristics and positions inside STARDUST-U with the resuspension degree and the velocity values.

Development and Validation of the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) Toward Further Understanding of Occupant Injury Mechanisms in Precrash and During Crash.

PubMed

Iwamoto, Masami; Nakahira, Yuko; Kimpara, Hideyuki

2015-01-01

Active safety devices such as automatic emergency brake (AEB) and precrash seat belt have the potential to accomplish further reduction in the number of the fatalities due to automotive accidents. However, their effectiveness should be investigated by more accurate estimations of their interaction with human bodies. Computational human body models are suitable for investigation, especially considering muscular tone effects on occupant motions and injury outcomes. However, the conventional modeling approaches such as multibody models and detailed finite element (FE) models have advantages and disadvantages in computational costs and injury predictions considering muscular tone effects. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a human body FE model with whole body muscles, which can be used for the detailed investigation of interaction between human bodies and vehicular structures including some safety devices precrash and during a crash with relatively low computational costs. In this study, we developed a human body FE model called THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) with a body size of 50th percentile adult male (AM50) and a sitting posture. The model has anatomical structures of bones, ligaments, muscles, brain, and internal organs. The total number of elements is 281,260, which would realize relatively low computational costs. Deformable material models were assigned to all body parts. The muscle-tendon complexes were modeled by truss elements with Hill-type muscle material and seat belt elements with tension-only material. The THUMS was validated against 35 series of cadaver or volunteer test data on frontal, lateral, and rear impacts. Model validations for 15 series of cadaver test data associated with frontal impacts are presented in this article. The THUMS with a vehicle sled model was applied to investigate effects of muscle activations on occupant kinematics and injury outcomes in specific frontal impact situations with AEB. In the validations using 5 series of cadaver test data, force-time curves predicted by the THUMS were quantitatively evaluated using correlation and analysis (CORA), which showed good or acceptable agreement with cadaver test data in most cases. The investigation of muscular effects showed that muscle activation levels and timing had significant effects on occupant kinematics and injury outcomes. Although further studies on accident injury reconstruction are needed, the THUMS has the potential for predictions of occupant kinematics and injury outcomes considering muscular tone effects with relatively low computational costs.

Modeling an unmitigated thermal quench event in a large field magnet in a DEMO reactor

DOE PAGES

Merrill, Brad J.

2015-03-25

The superconducting magnet systems of future fusion reactors, such as a Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO), will produce magnetic field energies in the 10 s of GJ range. The release of this energy during a fault condition could produce arcs that can damage the magnets of these systems. The public safety consequences of such events must be explored for a DEMO reactor because the magnets are located near the DEMO's primary radioactive confinement barrier, the reactor's vacuum vessel (VV). Great care will be taken in the design of DEMO's magnet systems to detect and provide a rapid field energy dump tomore » avoid any accidents conditions. During an event when a fault condition proceeds undetected, the potential of producing melting of the magnet exists. If molten material from the magnet impinges on the walls of the VV, these walls could fail, resulting in a pathway for release of radioactive material from the VV. A model is under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) called MAGARC to investigate the consequences of this accident in a large toroidal field (TF) coil. Recent improvements to this model are described in this paper, along with predictions for a DEMO relevant event in a toroidal field magnet.« less

Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

PubMed

Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

2010-02-01

Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

[Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

PubMed

de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

2014-12-01

The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

2014-02-01

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

Road accidents caused by sleepy drivers: Update of a Norwegian survey.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross Owen; Sagberg, Fridulv

2013-01-01

The current study tests, updates and expands a model of factors associated with sleepy driving, originally based on a 1997 survey of accident-involved Norwegian drivers (Sagberg, F., 1999. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep. Accident Analysis & Prevention 31, 639-649). The aim is to establish a robust model to inform measures to tackle sleepy driving. The original questions on (i) tiredness-related accidents and (ii) incidents of sleep behind the wheel in the last 12 months were again posed in 2003 and 2008, in independent surveys of Norwegian drivers involved in accidents reported to a large insurance company. According to those drivers at-fault for the accident, tiredness or sleepiness behind the wheel contributed to between 1.9 and 3.9 per cent of all types of accident reported to the insurance company across these years. Accident-involved drivers not at fault for the accident reported a reduction in the incidence of sleep behind the wheel for the preceding year, decreasing from 8.3 per cent in 1997 to 2.9 per cent in 2008. The reasons for this are not clear. According to logistic regression analysis of survey responses, the following factors were robustly associated with road accidents involving sleepy driving: driving off the road; good road conditions; longer distance driven since the start of the trip; and fewer years with a driving licence. The following factors are consistently associated with reports of sleep behind the wheel, whether or not it leads to an accident: being male; driving further per year; being younger; and having sleep-related health problems. Taken together these findings suggest that young, inexperienced male drivers who drive long distances may be a suitable target for road safety campaigns aimed at tackling sleepy driving. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larocque, G. R.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwantes, Jon M.

Kelly Fitzgerald Kelly Fitzgerald assisted with laboratory testing for an ongoing R&D project known as Electrochemically Modulated Separation (EMS) for on-line rapid preseparations of actinides prior to mass spectrometry analysis. Ryne Burgess Ryne Burgess used SCALE 5.1 ORIGEN-ARP to predict isotope libraries for the Units 1, 2 and 3 reactors and Unit 4 spent fuel pool for comparing against measurements of environmental sampled collected at the site in order to identify the source terms of the accident. Comparison of the cesium 134/137 and cesium 136/137 ratios observed in environmental samples and ORIGEN-ARP predictions indicated that the Unit 4 Spent Fuelmore » Pool did not significantly contribute to radionuclide release during the Fukushima Daiichi accident.« less

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-12-15

This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in thesemore » appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.« less

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, Robert; Tomé, Carlos; Liu, Wenfeng; Alankar, Alankar; Subramanian, Gopinath; Stanek, Christopher

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical constitutive models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. To improve upon this approach, a microstructurally-based zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability is being developed within the United States Department of Energy Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed by Lebensohn and Tomé [1], has been coupled with the BISON engineering scale fuel performance code to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of light water reactor (LWR) cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic nature (defect and dislocation movement) and orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. A future goal is for VPSC to obtain information on reaction rate kinetics from atomistic calculations to inform the defect and dislocation behavior models described in VPSC. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.

The Human Factor in System Reliability Is Human Performance Predictable? (les Facteurs humains et la fiabilite des systemes - Les performances humaines, sont-elles previsibles?)

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

by Peter Wright, University of York, UK and Colin Drury , University of Buffalo. Session 3 was chaired by Reiner Onken, University of Bundeswehr, GE...proper inspection intervals; too few inspections may give rise to accidents whilst too many can increase costs . Drury has reviewed human factors studies on...thus search, whilst the cost of a miss or false rejection affects the decision stage. To furnish this model of aircraft inspection, Drury performed a

Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and NASA Experimental Flight Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2004-01-01

During the grant period, several tasks were performed in support of the NASA Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) program. The primary focus of the research was on characterizing the preturbulence environment by developing predictive tools and simulating atmospheric conditions that preceded severe turbulence. The goal of the research being to provide both dynamical understanding of conditions that preceded turbulence as well as providing predictive tools in support of operational NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The advancements in characterizing the preturbulence environment will be applied by NASA to sensor development for predicting turbulence onboard commercial aircraft. Numerical simulations with atmospheric models as well as multi-scale observational analyses provided insights into the environment organizing turbulence in a total of forty-eight specific case studies of severe accident producing turbulence on commercial aircraft. These accidents exclusively affected commercial aircraft. A paradigm was developed which diagnosed specific atmospheric circulation systems from the synoptic scale down to the meso-y scale that preceded turbulence in both clear air and in proximity to convection. The emphasis was primarily on convective turbulence as that is what the TPAWS program is most focused on in terms of developing improved sensors for turbulence warning and avoidance. However, the dynamical paradigm also has applicability to clear air and mountain turbulence. This dynamical sequence of events was then employed to formulate and test new hazard prediction indices that were first tested in research simulation studies and then ultimately were further tested in support of the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The new hazard characterization algorithms were utilized in a Real Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) that was operationally employed to support the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. Improvements in the RTTM were implemented in an effort to increase the accuracy of the operational characterization of the preturbulence environment. Additionally, the initial research necessary to create a statistical evaluation scheme for the characterization indices utilized in the RTTM was undertaken. Results of all components of this research were then published in NASA contractor reports and scientific journal papers.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELING TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF CS-137 AT THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kara G. Eby

2010-08-01

At the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Cs-137 concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk-based threshold of 0.23 pCi/g may increase the risk of human mortality due to cancer. As a leader in nuclear research, the INL has been conducting nuclear activities for decades. Elevated anthropogenic radionuclide levels including Cs-137 are a result of atmospheric weapons testing, the Chernobyl accident, and nuclear activities occurring at the INL site. Therefore environmental monitoring and long-term surveillance of Cs-137 is required to evaluate risk. However, due to the large land area involved, frequent and comprehensive monitoring is limited. Developing a spatial model thatmore » predicts Cs-137 concentrations at unsampled locations will enhance the spatial characterization of Cs-137 in surface soils, provide guidance for an efficient monitoring program, and pinpoint areas requiring mitigation strategies. The predictive model presented herein is based on applied geostatistics using a Bayesian analysis of environmental characteristics across the INL site, which provides kriging spatial maps of both Cs-137 estimates and prediction errors. Comparisons are presented of two different kriging methods, showing that the use of secondary information (i.e., environmental characteristics) can provide improved prediction performance in some areas of the INL site.« less

Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

2017-04-03

Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement. Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement. The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect. The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.

An Overview of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AVSP) Systemwide Accident Prevention (SWAP) Human Performance Modeling (HPM) Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.; Goodman, Allen; Hooley, Becky L.

2003-01-01

An overview is provided of the Human Performance Modeling (HPM) element within the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). Two separate model development tracks for performance modeling of real-world aviation environments are described: the first focuses on the advancement of cognitive modeling tools for system design, while the second centers on a prescriptive engineering model of activity tracking for error detection and analysis. A progressive implementation strategy for both tracks is discussed in which increasingly more complex, safety-relevant applications are undertaken to extend the state-of-the-art, as well as to reveal potential human-system vulnerabilities in the aviation domain. Of particular interest is the ability to predict the precursors to error and to assess potential mitigation strategies associated with the operational use of future flight deck technologies.

Downstream Effects on Orbiter Leeside Flow Separation for Hypersonic Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buck, Gregory M.; Pulsonetti, Maria V.; Weilmuenster, K. James

2005-01-01

Discrepancies between experiment and computation for shuttle leeside flow separation, which came to light in the Columbia accident investigation, are resolved. Tests were run in the Langley Research Center 20-Inch Hypersonic CF4 Tunnel with a baseline orbiter model and two extended trailing edge models. The extended trailing edges altered the wing leeside separation lines, moving the lines toward the fuselage, proving that wing trailing edge modeling does affect the orbiter leeside flow. Computations were then made with a wake grid. These calculations more closely matched baseline experiments. Thus, the present findings demonstrate that it is imperative to include the wake flow domain in CFD calculations in order to accurately predict leeside flow separation for hypersonic vehicles at high angles of attack.

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city

PubMed Central

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

2017-01-01

Introduction: In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. Methods: The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R2. Results: Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Conclusion: Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs. PMID:28660163

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The Accident Model Document is one of three documents of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) - Reactor System as applied to a Space Base Program. Potential terrestrial nuclear hazards involving the zirconium hydride reactor-Brayton power module are identified for all phases of the Space Base program. The accidents/events that give rise to the hazards are defined and abort sequence trees are developed to determine the sequence of events leading to the hazard and the associated probabilities of occurence. Source terms are calculated to determine the magnitude of the hazards. The above data is used in the mission accident analysis to determine the most probable and significant accidents/events in each mission phase. The only significant hazards during the prelaunch and launch ascent phases of the mission are those which arise form criticality accidents. Fission product inventories during this time period were found to be very low due to very limited low power acceptance testing.

Overview of lower length scale model development for accident tolerant fuels regarding U3Si2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yongfeng

2016-09-01

U3Si2 and FeCrAl have been proposed as fuel and cladding concepts, respectively, for accident tolerance fuels with higher tolerance to accident scenarios compared to UO2. However, a lot of key physics and material properties regarding their in-pile performance are yet to be explored. To accelerate the understanding and reduce the cost of experimental studies, multiscale modeling and simulation are used to develop physics-based materials models to assist engineering scale fuel performance modeling. In this report, the lower-length-scale efforts in method and material model development supported by the Accident Tolerance Fuel (ATF) high-impact-problem (HIP) under the NEAMS program are summarized. Significantmore » progresses have been made regarding interatomic potential, phase field models for phase decomposition and gas bubble formation, and thermal conductivity for U3Si2 fuel, and precipitation in FeCrAl cladding. The accomplishments are very useful by providing atomistic and mesoscale tools, improving the current understanding, and delivering engineering scale models for these two ATF concepts.« less

Active numerical model of human body for reconstruction of falls from height.

PubMed

Milanowicz, Marcin; Kędzior, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Falls from height constitute the largest group of incidents out of approximately 90,000 occupational accidents occurring each year in Poland. Reconstruction of the exact course of a fall from height is generally difficult due to lack of sufficient information from the accident scene. This usually results in several contradictory versions of an incident and impedes, for example, determination of the liability in a judicial process. In similar situations, in many areas of human activity, researchers apply numerical simulation. They use it to model physical phenomena to reconstruct their real course over time; e.g. numerical human body models are frequently used for investigation and reconstruction of road accidents. However, they are validated in terms of specific road traffic accidents and are considerably limited when applied to the reconstruction of other types of accidents. The objective of the study was to develop an active numerical human body model to be used for reconstruction of accidents associated with falling from height. Development of the model involved extension and adaptation of the existing Pedestrian human body model (available in the MADYMO package database) for the purposes of reconstruction of falls from height by taking into account the human reaction to the loss of balance. The model was developed by using the results of experimental tests of the initial phase of the fall from height. The active numerical human body model covering 28 sets of initial conditions related to various human reactions to the loss of balance was developed. The application of the model was illustrated by using it to reconstruct a real fall from height. From among the 28 sets of initial conditions, those whose application made it possible to reconstruct the most probable version of the incident was selected. The selection was based on comparison of the results of the reconstruction with information contained in the accident report. Results in the form of estimated injuries overlap with the real injuries sustained by the casualty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

2012-01-01

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

PubMed

Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

2010-10-15

This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-10-01

Induced exposure models postulate a structure for accident data which permits the : estimation of two factors: exposure and proneness. Since information on exposure : is needed in order to assess the accident risk of different driver, vehicle, and : ...

Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Jones, Steven L; Dye, Daniel

2014-06-01

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Design of PSB-VVER Experiments Relevant to Accident Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevo, Alessandro Del; D'Auria, Francesco; Mazzini, Marino; Bykov, Michael; Elkin, Ilya V.; Suslov, Alexander

Experimental programs carried-out in integral test facilities are relevant for validating the best estimate thermal-hydraulic codes(1), which are used for accident analyses, design of accident management procedures, licensing of nuclear power plants, etc. The validation process, in fact, is based on well designed experiments. It consists in the comparison of the measured and calculated parameters and the determination whether a computer code has an adequate capability in predicting the major phenomena expected to occur in the course of transient and/or accidents. University of Pisa was responsible of the numerical design of the 12 experiments executed in PSB-VVER facility (2), operated at Electrogorsk Research and Engineering Center (Russia), in the framework of the TACIS 2.03/97 Contract 3.03.03 Part A, EC financed (3). The paper describes the methodology adopted at University of Pisa, starting form the scenarios foreseen in the final test matrix until the execution of the experiments. This process considers three key topics: a) the scaling issue and the simulation, with unavoidable distortions, of the expected performance of the reference nuclear power plants; b) the code assessment process involving the identification of phenomena challenging the code models; c) the features of the concerned integral test facility (scaling limitations, control logics, data acquisition system, instrumentation, etc.). The activities performed in this respect are discussed, and emphasis is also given to the relevance of the thermal losses to the environment. This issue affects particularly the small scaled facilities and has relevance on the scaling approach related to the power and volume of the facility.

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

PubMed

Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

2018-06-01

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobromir Panayotov; Andrew Grief; Brad J. Merrill

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) develops designs and implements the European Test Blanket Systems (TBS) in ITER - Helium-Cooled Lithium-Lead (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of TBS in ITER and accident analyses are one of its critical segments. A systematic approach to the accident analyses had been acquired under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements and AMEC and INL efforts resulted in the development of a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analyses. It addresses the specificity of the breeding blankets design, materials and phenomena and atmore » the same time is consistent with the one already applied to ITER accident analyses. Methodology consists of several phases. At first the reference scenarios are selected on the base of FMEA studies. In the second place elaboration of the accident analyses specifications we use phenomena identification and ranking tables to identify the requirements to be met by the code(s) and TBS models. Thus the limitations of the codes are identified and possible solutions to be built into the models are proposed. These include among others the loose coupling of different codes or code versions in order to simulate multi-fluid flows and phenomena. The code selection and issue of the accident analyses specifications conclude this second step. Furthermore the breeding blanket and ancillary systems models are built on. In this work challenges met and solutions used in the development of both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes models of HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be shared. To continue the developed models are qualified by comparison with finite elements analyses, by code to code comparison and sensitivity studies. Finally, the qualified models are used for the execution of the accident analyses of specific scenario. When possible the methodology phases will be illustrated in the paper by limited number of tables and figures. Description of each phase and its results in detail as well the methodology applications to EU HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be published in separate papers. The developed methodology is applicable to accident analyses of other TBSs to be tested in ITER and as well to DEMO breeding blankets.« less

Worldwide isotope ratios of the Fukushima release and early-phase external dose reconstruction

PubMed Central

Chaisan, Kittisak; Smith, Jim T.; Bossew, Peter; Kirchner, Gerald; Laptev, Gennady V.

2013-01-01

Measurements of radionuclides (RNs) in air made worldwide following the Fukushima accident are quantitatively compared with air and soil measurements made in Japan. Isotopic ratios RN:137Cs of 131I, 132Te, 134,136Cs, are correlated with distance from release. It is shown, for the first time, that both within Japan and globally, ratios RN:137Cs in air were relatively constant for primarily particle associated radionuclides (134,136Cs; 132Te) but that 131I shows much lower local (<80 km) isotope ratios in soils relative to 137Cs. Derived isotope ratios are used to reconstruct external dose rate during the early phase post-accident. Model “blind” tests show more than 95% of predictions within a factor of two of measurements from 15 sites to the north, northwest and west of the power station. It is demonstrated that generic isotope ratios provide a sound basis for reconstruction of early-phase external dose rates in these most contaminated areas. PMID:24018776

Modification of (137)Cs transfer to rape (Brassica napus L.) phytomass under the influence of soil microorganisms.

PubMed

Pareniuk, O; Shavanova, K; Laceby, J P; Illienko, V; Tytova, L; Levchuk, S; Gudkov, I; Nanba, K

2015-11-01

After nuclear accidents, such as those experienced in Chernobyl and Fukushima, microorganisms may help purify contaminated soils by changing the mobility of radionuclides and their availability for plants by altering the physical and chemical properties of the substrate. Here, using model experiments with quartz sand as a substrate we investigate the influence of microorganisms on (137)Cs transfer from substrate to plants. The highest transition of (137)Cs from substrate to plants (50% increase compared to the control) was observed after Brassica napus L. seeds were inoculated by Azotobacter chroococcum. The best results for reducing the accumulation of (137)Cs radionuclides (30% less) were noted after the inoculation by Burkholderia sp.. Furthermore, Bacillus megaterium demonstrated an increased ability to accumulate (137)Cs. This research improves our prediction of the behavior of radionuclides in soil and may contribute towards new, microbiological countermeasures for soil remediation following nuclear accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Road Accident Prevention with Instant Emergency Warning Message Dissemination in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network.

PubMed

Gokulakrishnan, P; Ganeshkumar, P

2015-01-01

A Road Accident Prevention (RAP) scheme based on Vehicular Backbone Network (VBN) structure is proposed in this paper for Vehicular Ad-hoc Network (VANET). The RAP scheme attempts to prevent vehicles from highway road traffic accidents and thereby reduces death and injury rates. Once the possibility of an emergency situation (i.e. an accident) is predicted in advance, instantly RAP initiates a highway road traffic accident prevention scheme. The RAP scheme constitutes the following activities: (i) the Road Side Unit (RSU) constructs a Prediction Report (PR) based on the status of the vehicles and traffic in the highway roads, (ii) the RSU generates an Emergency Warning Message (EWM) based on an abnormal PR, (iii) the RSU forms a VBN structure and (iv) the RSU disseminates the EWM to the vehicles that holds the high Risk Factor (RF) and travels in High Risk Zone (HRZ). These vehicles might reside either within the RSU's coverage area or outside RSU's coverage area (reached using VBN structure). The RAP scheme improves the performance of EWM dissemination in terms of increase in notification and decrease in end-to-end delay. The RAP scheme also reduces infrastructure cost (number of RSUs) by formulating and deploying the VBN structure. The RAP scheme with VBN structure improves notification by 19 percent and end-to-end delay by 14.38 percent for a vehicle density of 160 vehicles. It is also proved from the simulation experiment that the performance of RAP scheme is promising in 4-lane highway roads.

Road Accident Prevention with Instant Emergency Warning Message Dissemination in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network

PubMed Central

P, Gokulakrishnan; P, Ganeshkumar

2015-01-01

A Road Accident Prevention (RAP) scheme based on Vehicular Backbone Network (VBN) structure is proposed in this paper for Vehicular Ad-hoc Network (VANET). The RAP scheme attempts to prevent vehicles from highway road traffic accidents and thereby reduces death and injury rates. Once the possibility of an emergency situation (i.e. an accident) is predicted in advance, instantly RAP initiates a highway road traffic accident prevention scheme. The RAP scheme constitutes the following activities: (i) the Road Side Unit (RSU) constructs a Prediction Report (PR) based on the status of the vehicles and traffic in the highway roads, (ii) the RSU generates an Emergency Warning Message (EWM) based on an abnormal PR, (iii) the RSU forms a VBN structure and (iv) the RSU disseminates the EWM to the vehicles that holds the high Risk Factor (RF) and travels in High Risk Zone (HRZ). These vehicles might reside either within the RSU’s coverage area or outside RSU’s coverage area (reached using VBN structure). The RAP scheme improves the performance of EWM dissemination in terms of increase in notification and decrease in end-to-end delay. The RAP scheme also reduces infrastructure cost (number of RSUs) by formulating and deploying the VBN structure. The RAP scheme with VBN structure improves notification by 19 percent and end-to-end delay by 14.38 percent for a vehicle density of 160 vehicles. It is also proved from the simulation experiment that the performance of RAP scheme is promising in 4-lane highway roads. PMID:26636576

Analysis of defects of overhead facade systems and other light thin-walled structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endzhievskiy, L.; Frolovskaia, A.; Petrova, Y.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the defects and the causes of contemporary design solutions with an example of overhead facade systems with ventilated air gaps and light steel thin-walled structures on the basis of field experiments. The analysis is performed at all stages of work: design, manufacture, including quality, construction, and operation. Practical examples are given. The main causes of accidents and the accident rate prediction are looked upon and discussed.

Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

PubMed Central

Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater Pollution from Planned Feed Additive Project in Nanning City Based on GMS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yimin; Lan, Junkang; Wen, Zhixiong

2018-01-01

In order to predict the pollution of underground aquifers and rivers by the proposed project, Specialized hydrogeological investigation was carried out. After hydrogeological surveying and mapping, drilling, and groundwater level monitoring, the scope of the hydrogeological unit and the regional hydrogeological condition were found out. The permeability coefficients of the aquifers were also obtained by borehole water injection tests. In order to predict the impact on groundwater environment by the project, a GMS software was used in numerical simulation. The simulation results show that when unexpected sewage leakage accident happened, the pollutants will be gradually diluted by groundwater, and the diluted contaminants will slowly spread to southeast with groundwater flow, eventually they are discharged into Gantang River. However, the process of the pollutants discharging into the river is very long, the long-term dilution of the river water will keep Gantang River from being polluted.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2: Book 1, Accident model document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Accident Model Document (AMD) is the second volume of the three volume Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the Galileo outer planetary space science mission. This mission employs Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) as the prime electrical power sources for the spacecraft. Galileo will be launched into Earth orbit using the Space Shuttle and will use the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) booster to place the spacecraft into an Earth escape trajectory. The RTG's employ silicon-germanium thermoelectric couples to produce electricity from the heat energy that results from the decay of the radioisotope fuel, Plutonium-238, used in the RTG heat source.more » The heat source configuration used in the RTG's is termed General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS), and the RTG's are designated GPHS-RTGs. The use of radioactive material in these missions necessitates evaluations of the radiological risks that may be encountered by launch complex personnel as well as by the Earth's general population resulting from postulated malfunctions or failures occurring in the mission operations. The FSAR presents the results of a rigorous safety assessment, including substantial analyses and testing, of the launch and deployment of the RTGs for the Galileo mission. This AMD is a summary of the potential accident and failure sequences which might result in fuel release, the analysis and testing methods employed, and the predicted source terms. Each source term consists of a quantity of fuel released, the location of release and the physical characteristics of the fuel released. Each source term has an associated probability of occurrence. 27 figs., 11 tabs.« less

Biomarkers for radiation pneumonitis using non-invasive molecular imaging

PubMed Central

Medhora, Meetha; Haworth, Steven; Liu, Yu; Narayanan, Jayashree; Gao, Feng; Zhao, Ming; Audi, Said; Jacobs, Elizabeth R.; Fish, Brian L.; Clough, Anne V.

2016-01-01

Rationale Our goal is to develop minimally-invasive biomarkers for predicting radiation-induced lung injury before symptoms develop. Currently there are no biomarkers that can predict radiation pneumonitis. Radiation damage to the whole lung is a serious risk in nuclear accidents or in case of radiological terrorism. Our previous studies have shown a single dose of 15 Gy X-rays to the thorax causes severe pneumonitis in rats by 6–8 weeks. We have also developed a mitigator for radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis that can be started as late as 5 weeks after radiation. Methods We used two functional single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) probes in vivo in irradiated rat lungs. Regional pulmonary perfusion was measured by injection of technetium labeled macroaggregated albumin (99mTc-MAA). Perfused volume was determined by comparing the volume of distribution of 99mTc-MAA to the anatomical lung volume obtained by micro-CT. A second probe, technetium labeled duramycin that binds to apoptotic cells, was used to measure pulmonary cell death in the same rat model. Results Perfused volume of lung was decreased by ~25% at 1, 2 and 3 weeks after 15 Gy and 99mTc-duramycin uptake was more than doubled at 2 and 3 weeks. There was no change in body weight, breathing rate or lung histology between irradiated and non-irradiated rats at these times. Pulmonary vascular resistance and vascular permeability measured in isolated perfused lungs ex vivo increased at 2 weeks after 15 Gy. Principal conclusions Our results suggest the potential for SPECT biomarkers for predicting radiation injury to the lungs before substantial functional or histological damage is observed. Early prediction of radiation pneumonitis will benefit those receiving radiation in the context of therapy, accidents or terrorism in time to initiate mitigation. PMID:27033892

Effort test failure: toward a predictive model.

PubMed

Webb, James W; Batchelor, Jennifer; Meares, Susanne; Taylor, Alan; Marsh, Nigel V

2012-01-01

Predictors of effort test failure were examined in an archival sample of 555 traumatically brain-injured (TBI) adults. Logistic regression models were used to examine whether compensation-seeking, injury-related, psychological, demographic, and cultural factors predicted effort test failure (ETF). ETF was significantly associated with compensation-seeking (OR = 3.51, 95% CI [1.25, 9.79]), low education (OR:. 83 [.74, . 94]), self-reported mood disorder (OR: 5.53 [3.10, 9.85]), exaggerated displays of behavior (OR: 5.84 [2.15, 15.84]), psychotic illness (OR: 12.86 [3.21, 51.44]), being foreign-born (OR: 5.10 [2.35, 11.06]), having sustained a workplace accident (OR: 4.60 [2.40, 8.81]), and mild traumatic brain injury severity compared with very severe traumatic brain injury severity (OR: 0.37 [0.13, 0.995]). ETF was associated with a broader range of statistical predictors than has previously been identified and the relative importance of psychological and behavioral predictors of ETF was evident in the logistic regression model. Variables that might potentially extend the model of ETF are identified for future research efforts.

Development of Northeast Asia Nuclear Power Plant Accident Simulator.

PubMed

Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Po, Li-Chi Cliff

2017-06-15

A conclusion from the lessons learned after the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident was that Korea needs a tool to estimate consequences from a major accident that could occur at a nuclear power plant located in a neighboring country. This paper describes a suite of computer-based codes to be used by Korea's nuclear emergency response staff for training and potentially operational support in Korea's national emergency preparedness and response program. The systems of codes, Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator (NANAS), consist of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. To quickly assess potential doses to the public in Korea, NANAS includes specific reactor data from the nuclear power plants in China, Japan and Taiwan. The completed simulator is demonstrated using data for a hypothetical release. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting the impact of chronic health conditions on workplace productivity and accidents: results from two US Department of Energy national laboratories.

PubMed

Frey, Jodi Jacobson; Osteen, Philip J; Berglund, Patricia A; Jinnett, Kimberly; Ko, Jungyai

2015-04-01

Examine associations of chronic health conditions on workplace productivity and accidents among US Department of Energy employees. The Health and Work Performance Questionnaire-Select was administered to a random sample of two Department of Energy national laboratory employees (46% response rate; N = 1854). The majority (87.4%) reported having one or more chronic health conditions, with 43.4% reporting four or more conditions. A population-attributable risk proportions analysis suggests improvements of 4.5% in absenteeism, 5.1% in presenteeism, 8.9% in productivity, and 77% of accidents by reducing the number of conditions by one level. Depression was the only health condition associated with all four outcomes. Results suggest that chronic conditions in this workforce are prevalent and costly. Efforts to prevent or reduce condition comorbidity among employees with multiple conditions can significantly reduce costs and workplace accident rates.

Heat transfer of molten metal layers in severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, Seung Kai; Walton, A.; Yang, Zhilin

1997-12-01

In some scenarios of severe accidents of light water reactors, a layer of molten metal from internal structural components of the pressure vessel is predicted to occur on top of a ceramic core debris in the lower head. The layer transfers the heat generated in the ceramic pool to the side wall of the vessel, causing the latter to melt. This problem has been investigated by Theofanous et al. for the advanced light water reactor AP600 in the context of the accident management strategy of ex-vessel cooling, and the conclusion was drawn that the melting does not seriously compromise themore » integrity of the pressure vessel.« less

Mental health status, aggression, and poor driving distinguish traffic offenders from non-offenders but health status predicts driving behavior in both groups

PubMed Central

Abdoli, Nasrin; Farnia, Vahid; Delavar, Ali; Dortaj, Fariborz; Esmaeili, Alireza; Farrokhi, Noorali; Karami, Majid; Shakeri, Jalal; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2015-01-01

Background In Iran, traffic accidents and deaths from traffic accidents are among the highest in the world, and generally, driver behavior rather than technical failures or environmental conditions are responsible for traffic accidents. In a previous study, we showed that among young Iranian male traffic offenders, poor mental health status, along with aggression, predicted poor driving behavior. The aims of the present study were twofold, to determine whether this pattern could be replicated among non-traffic offenders, and to compare the mental health status, aggression, and driving behavior of male traffic offenders and non-offenders. Methods A total of 850 male drivers (mean age =34.25 years, standard deviation =10.44) from Kermanshah (Iran) took part in the study. Of these, 443 were offenders (52.1%) and 407 (47.9%) were non-offenders with lowest driving penalty scores applying for attaining an international driving license. Participants completed a questionnaire booklet covering socio-demographic variables, traits of aggression, health status, and driving behavior. Results Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer mental health status, and worse driving behavior. Among non-offenders, multiple regression indicated that poor health status, but not aggression, independently predicted poor driving behavior. Conclusion Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer health status and driving behavior. Further, the predictive power of poorer mental health status, but not aggression, for driving behavior was replicated for male non-offenders. PMID:26300646

Commuter Train Passenger Safety Model Using Positive Behavior Approach: The Case Study in Suburban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanto, D. A.; Adisasmita, S. A.; Hamid, S.; Hustim, M.

2018-04-01

Currently, Train passanger safety measures are more predominantly measurable using negative dimensions in user mode behavior, such as accident rate, accident intensity and accident impact. This condition suggests that safety improvements aim only to reduce accidents. Therefore, this study aims to measure the safety level of light train transit modes (KRL) through the dimensions of traveling safety on commuters based on positive safety indicators with severel condition departure times and returns for work purposes and long trip rates above KRL. The primary survey were used in data collection methods. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used in data analysis. The results show that there are different models of the safety level of departure and return journey. The highest difference is in the security dimension which is the internal variable of KRL users.

Predictive factors for cerebrovascular accidents after thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

PubMed

Mariscalco, Giovanni; Piffaretti, Gabriele; Tozzi, Matteo; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Sala, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

2009-12-01

Cerebrovascular accidents are devastating and worrisome complications after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The aim of this study was to determine cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Between January 2001 and June 2008, 76 patients treated with thoracic endovascular aortic repair were prospectively enrolled. The study cohort included 61 men; mean age was 65.4 +/- 16.8 years. All patients underwent a specific neurologic assessment on an hourly basis postoperatively to detect neurologic deficits. Cerebrovascular accidents were diagnosed on the basis of physical examination, tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging, or autopsy. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 8 (10.5%) patients, including 4 transient ischemic attack and 4 major strokes. Four cases were observed within the first 24-hours. Multivariable analysis revealed that anatomic incompleteness of the Willis circle (odds ratio [OR] 17.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10 to 140.66), as well as the presence of coronary artery disease (OR 6.86, 95 CI% 1.18 to 40.05), were independently associated with postoperative cerebrovascular accident development. Overall hospital mortality was 9.2%, with no significant difference for patients hit by cerebrovascular accidents (25.0% vs 7.3%, p = 0.102). Preexisting coronary artery disease, reflecting a severe diseased aorta and anomalies of Willis circle are independent cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedures. A careful evaluation of the arch vessels and cerebral vascularization should be mandatory for patients suitable for thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

A quarter of a century of the DBQ: some supplementary notes on its validity with regard to accidents.

PubMed

de Winter, Joost C F; Dodou, Dimitra; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

This article synthesises the latest information on the relationship between the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and accidents. We show by means of computer simulation that correlations with accidents are necessarily small because accidents are rare events. An updated meta-analysis on the zero-order correlations between the DBQ and self-reported accidents yielded an overall r of .13 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for violations (57,480 participants; 67 samples) and .09 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for errors (66,028 participants; 56 samples). An analysis of a previously published DBQ dataset (975 participants) showed that by aggregating across four measurement occasions, the correlation coefficient with self-reported accidents increased from .14 to .24 for violations and from .11 to .19 for errors. Our meta-analysis also showed that DBQ violations (r = .24; 6353 participants; 20 samples) but not DBQ errors (r = - .08; 1086 participants; 16 samples) correlated with recorded vehicle speed. Practitioner Summary: The DBQ is probably the most widely used self-report questionnaire in driver behaviour research. This study shows that DBQ violations and errors correlate moderately with self-reported traffic accidents.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

2016-10-31

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Analysis of typical WWER-1000 severe accident scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokin, Yu.S.; Shchekoldin, V.V.; Borisov, L.N.

2004-07-01

At present in EDO 'Gidropress' there is a certain experience of performing the analyses of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER with application of domestic and foreign codes. Important data were also obtained by the results of calculation modeling of integrated experiments with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel. Systematization and consideration of these data in development and assimilation of codes are extremely important in connection with large uncertainty still existing in understanding and adequate description of phenomenology of severe accidents. The presented report gives a comparison of analysis results of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER-1000more » for two typical scenarios made by using American MELCOR code and the Russian RATEG/SVECHA/HEFEST code. The results of calculation modeling are compared using above codes with the data of experiment FPT1 with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel, which has been carried out at the facility Phebus (France). The obtained results are considered in the report from the viewpoint of: - adequacy of results of calculation modeling of separate phenomena during severe accidents of RP with WWER by using the above codes; - influence of uncertainties (degree of details of calculation models, choice of parameters of models etc.); - choice of those or other setup variables (options) in the used codes; - necessity of detailed modeling of processes and phenomena as applied to design justification of safety of RP with WWER. (authors)« less

[Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

PubMed

Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

1998-08-01

The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

A Human Factors Analysis of USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Mishaps

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

conditions or unsafe acts, where their respective removal would prevent a chain reaction from propagating, thus preventing the accident . This model...Force Col. Anthony Tvaryanas stated that “If you 19 really wanted to make a dent in preventing RPA accidents , the DoD needs to look at how they do...REFERENCES Greenwood, M. & Woods, H.M. (1919). The incidence of industrial accidents upon individuals with special reference to multiple accidents . (British

A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing injury.

Modelling fatigue and the use of fatigue models in work settings.

PubMed

Dawson, Drew; Ian Noy, Y; Härmä, Mikko; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Belenky, Gregory

2011-03-01

In recent years, theoretical models of the sleep and circadian system developed in laboratory settings have been adapted to predict fatigue and, by inference, performance. This is typically done using the timing of prior sleep and waking or working hours as the primary input and the time course of the predicted variables as the primary output. The aim of these models is to provide employers, unions and regulators with quantitative information on the likely average level of fatigue, or risk, associated with a given pattern of work and sleep with the goal of better managing the risk of fatigue-related errors and accidents/incidents. The first part of this review summarises the variables known to influence workplace fatigue and draws attention to the considerable variability attributable to individual and task variables not included in current models. The second part reviews the current fatigue models described in the scientific and technical literature and classifies them according to whether they predict fatigue directly by using the timing of prior sleep and wake (one-step models) or indirectly by using work schedules to infer an average sleep-wake pattern that is then used to predict fatigue (two-step models). The third part of the review looks at the current use of fatigue models in field settings by organizations and regulators. Given their limitations it is suggested that the current generation of models may be appropriate for use as one element in a fatigue risk management system. The final section of the review looks at the future of these models and recommends a standardised approach for their use as an element of the 'defenses-in-depth' approach to fatigue risk management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Posttest Analyses of the Steel Containment Vessel Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costello, J.F.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Ludwigsen, J.S.

A high pressure test of a scale model of a steel containment vessel (SCV) was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA. The test model is a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of an improved Mark II boiling water reactor (BWR) containment. This testis part of a program to investigate the response of representative models of nuclear containment structures to pressure loads beyond the design basis accident. The posttest analyses of this test focused on three areas where the pretest analysis effort did not adequately predict the model behavior duringmore » the test. These areas are the onset of global yielding, the strain concentrations around the equipment hatch and the strain concentrations that led to a small tear near a weld relief opening that was not modeled in the pretest analysis.« less

A systems modeling methodology for evaluation of vehicle aggressivity in the automotive accident environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-05

A systems modeling approach is presented for assessment of harm in the automotive accident environment. The methodology is presented in general form and then applied to evaluate vehicle aggressivity in frontal crashes. The methodology consists of par...

Concern About Petrochemical Health Risk Before and After a Refinery Explosion

PubMed Central

Cutchin, Malcolm P.; Martin, Kathryn Remmes; Owen, Steven V.; Goodwin, James S.

2014-01-01

On March 23, 2005, a large explosion at an oil refinery in Texas City, Texas caused 15 deaths and approximately 170 injuries. Little is known about how such an industrial accident influences concern about environmental health risks. We used measures of environmental health concern about nearby petrochemical production with a sample of Texas City residents to understand patterns of concern and change in concern after an industrial accident, as well as individual and contextual factors associated with those patterns. Survey interviews with residents of Texas City, Texas (N =315) both pre- and postexplosion using a brief Concern About Petrochemical Health Risk Scale (CAPHRS) and other questions were used to collect pertinent predictor information. CAPHRS baseline, postexplosion, and change scores were compared and modeled using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and a mixed model. Higher preexplosion CAPHRS scores were predicted by younger adults, foreign-born Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks, lower- and middle-income groups, and those who live with someone who has worked at the petrochemical plants. Higher CAPHRS change scores are predicted by the same variables (except income), as well as proximity to, or perception of, the explosion, and reports of neighborhood damage. Findings suggest these groups’ concern scores could indicate a greater vulnerability to psychological and physical harm generated by concern and stress arising from local petrochemical activities. A clearer understanding of concern about actual environmental health risks in exposed populations may enhance the evolving theory of stress and coping and eventually enable public health professionals to develop appropriate mitigation strategies. PMID:18643817

Organisational Factors of Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) and Prevention

PubMed Central

LECLERCQ, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Workplace design and upkeep, or human factors, are frequently advanced for explaining so-called Occupational Slip, Trip and Fall Accidents (OSTFAs). Despite scientific progress, these accidents, and more broadly Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMDs), are also commonly considered to be “simple”. This paper aims to stimulate changes in such perceptions by focusing on organisational factors that often combine with other accident factors to cause movement disturbance and injury in work situations. These factors frequently lead to arbitration between production and safety, which involves implementation of controls by workers. These controls can lead to greater worker exposure to OAMD risk. We propose a model that focuses on such controls to account specifically for the need to confront production and safety logics within a company and to enhance the potential for appropriate prevention action. These are then integrated into the set of controls highlighted by work organisation model developed by the NIOSH. PMID:25345425

Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Dwight A.; Poore, III, Willis P.

2015-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Markmore » I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.« less

Routes to failure: analysis of 41 civil aviation accidents from the Republic of China using the human factors analysis and classification system.

PubMed

Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Yu, Chung-San

2008-03-01

The human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) is based upon Reason's organizational model of human error. HFACS was developed as an analytical framework for the investigation of the role of human error in aviation accidents, however, there is little empirical work formally describing the relationship between the components in the model. This research analyses 41 civil aviation accidents occurring to aircraft registered in the Republic of China (ROC) between 1999 and 2006 using the HFACS framework. The results show statistically significant relationships between errors at the operational level and organizational inadequacies at both the immediately adjacent level (preconditions for unsafe acts) and higher levels in the organization (unsafe supervision and organizational influences). The pattern of the 'routes to failure' observed in the data from this analysis of civil aircraft accidents show great similarities to that observed in the analysis of military accidents. This research lends further support to Reason's model that suggests that active failures are promoted by latent conditions in the organization. Statistical relationships linking fallible decisions in upper management levels were found to directly affect supervisory practices, thereby creating the psychological preconditions for unsafe acts and hence indirectly impairing the performance of pilots, ultimately leading to accidents.

Transient Simulation of the Multi-SERTTA Experiment with MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, Javier; Baker, Benjamin; Wang, Yaqi

This work details the MAMMOTH reactor physics simulations of the Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatus (SERTTA) conducted at Idaho National Laboratory in FY-2017. TREAT static-environment experiment vehicles are being developed to enable transient testing of Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) type fuel specimens, including fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance (Accident Tolerant Fuels, ATF). The MAMMOTH simulations include point reactor kinetics as well as spatial dynamics for a temperature-limited transient. The strongly coupled multi-physics solutions of the neutron flux and temperature fields are second order accurate both in the spatial and temporal domains. MAMMOTH produces pellet stack powers that are within 1.5% of the Monte Carlo reference solutions. Some discrepancies between the MCNP model used in the design of the flux collars and the Serpent/MAMMOTH models lead to higher power and energy deposition values in Multi-SERTTA unit 1. The TREAT core results compare well with the safety case computed with point reactor kinetics in RELAP5-3D. The reactor period is 44 msec, which corresponds to a reactivity insertion of 2.685% delta k/kmore » $. The peak core power in the spatial dynamics simulation is 431 MW, which the point kinetics model over-predicts by 12%. The pulse width at half the maximum power is 0.177 sec. Subtle transient effects are apparent at the beginning insertion in the experimental samples due to the control rod removal. Additional difference due to transient effects are observed in the sample powers and enthalpy. The time dependence of the power coupling factor (PCF) is calculated for the various fuel stacks of the Multi-SERTTA vehicle. Sample temperatures in excess of 3100 K, the melting point UO$$_2$$, are computed with the adiabatic heat transfer model. The planned shaped-transient might introduce additional effects that cannot be predicted with PRK models. Future modeling will be focused on the shaped-transient by improving the control rod models in MAMMOTH and adding the BISON thermo-elastic models and thermal-fluids heat transfer.« less

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE PAGES

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.; ...

2018-03-29

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

A conservative fully implicit algorithm for predicting slug flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnopolsky, Boris I.; Lukyanov, Alexander A.

2018-02-01

An accurate and predictive modelling of slug flows is required by many industries (e.g., oil and gas, nuclear engineering, chemical engineering) to prevent undesired events potentially leading to serious environmental accidents. For example, the hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slugging leads to unwanted unsteady flow conditions. This demands the development of fast and robust numerical techniques for predicting slug flows. The presented in this paper study proposes a multi-fluid model and its implementation method accounting for phase appearance and disappearance. The numerical modelling of phase appearance and disappearance presents a complex numerical challenge for all multi-component and multi-fluid models. Numerical challenges arise from the singular systems of equations when some phases are absent and from the solution discontinuity when some phases appear or disappear. This paper provides a flexible and robust solution to these issues. A fully implicit formulation described in this work enables to efficiently solve governing fluid flow equations. The proposed numerical method provides a modelling capability of phase appearance and disappearance processes, which is based on switching procedure between various sets of governing equations. These sets of equations are constructed using information about the number of phases present in the computational domain. The proposed scheme does not require an explicit truncation of solutions leading to a conservative scheme for mass and linear momentum. A transient two-fluid model is used to verify and validate the proposed algorithm for conditions of hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slug flow regimes. The developed modelling capabilities allow to predict all the major features of the experimental data, and are in a good quantitative agreement with them.

Preliminary calculations related to the accident at Three Mile Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirchner, W.L.; Stevenson, M.G.

This report discusses preliminary studies of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident based on available methods and data. The work reported includes: (1) a TRAC base case calculation out to 3 hours into the accident sequence; (2) TRAC parametric calculations, these are the same as the base case except for a single hypothetical change in the system conditions, such as assuming the high pressure injection (HPI) system operated as designed rather than as in the accident; (3) fuel rod cladding failure, cladding oxidation due to zirconium metal-steam reactions, hydrogen release due to cladding oxidation, cladding ballooning, cladding embrittlement,more » and subsequent cladding breakup estimates based on TRAC calculated cladding temperatures and system pressures. Some conclusions of this work are: the TRAC base case accident calculation agrees very well with known system conditions to nearly 3 hours into the accident; the parametric calculations indicate that, loss-of-core cooling was most influenced by the throttling of High-Pressure Injection (HPI) flows, given the accident initiating events and the pressurizer electromagnetic-operated valve (EMOV) failing to close as designed; failure of nearly all the rods and gaseous fission product gas release from the failed rods is predicted to have occurred at about 2 hours and 30 minutes; cladding oxidation (zirconium-steam reaction) up to 3 hours resulted in the production of approximately 40 kilograms of hydrogen.« less

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitlow, J. D.; Neuhauser, K. S.

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships.more » These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme.« less

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown of Tehran City.

PubMed

Moradi, Ali; Rahmani, Khaled; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zainni, Slahedyn; Soori, Hamid

2018-02-20

The aim of this study was to geographically analyse the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown of Tehran City. Study population consisted of pedestrians who had traffic injury accidents from April 2014 to March 2015 in Tehran City. Data were extracted from the offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were used. All pedestrian accidents including 514 accidents were assessed in this study in which the site of accidents included arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%) and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with the number of bus stations, number of crossroads and recreational areas. Neighbourhoods close to markets are considered as the most dangerous places for injury in traffic accidents.

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling of psychomotor impairment induced by oral clonazepam in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

dos Santos, Fábio Monteiro; Gonçalves, José Carlos Saraiva; Caminha, Ricardo; da Silveira, Gabriel Estolano; Neves, Claúdia Silvana de Miranda; Gram, Karla Regina da Silva; Ferreira, Carla Teixeira; Jacqmin, Philippe; Noël, François

2009-10-01

This study was undertaken to model the relationship between clonazepam plasma concentrations and a central nervous system adverse effect (impairment of the psychomotor performance) following the oral administration of immediate-release tablets of clonazepam in healthy volunteers. Such a (P)pharmacokinetic/(P)pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) study is important to interpret properly the consequences of determined levels of plasma concentrations of psychoactive therapeutic drugs reported to be involved in road-traffic accidents. Twenty-three male subjects received a single oral dose of 4 mg clonazepam. Plasma concentration, determined by on-line solid phase extraction coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, and psychomotor performance, quantified through the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, were monitored for 72 hours. A 2-compartment open model with first order absorption and lag-time better fitted the plasma clonazepam concentrations. Clonazepam decreased the psychomotor performance by 72 +/- 3.7% (observed maximum effect), 1.5 to 4 hours (25th-75th percentile) after drug administration. A simultaneous population PK/PD model based on a sigmoid Emax model with time-dependent tolerance described well the time course of effect. Such acute tolerance could minimize the risk of accident as a result of impairment of motor skill after a single dose of clonazepam. However, an individual analysis of the data revealed a great interindividual variation in the relationship between clonazepam effect and plasma concentration, indicating that the phenomenon of acute tolerance can be predicted at a population, but not individual, level.

Soil vulnerability for cesium transfer.

PubMed

Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve

2011-07-01

The recent events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan have raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils and the possible impacts on agriculture surrounding nuclear power plants. This article summarizes the knowledge gained after the nuclear power plant accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on how soil parameters influence soil vulnerability for radiocesium bioavailability, discusses some potential agrochemical countermeasures, and presents some predictions of radiocesium crop concentrations for areas affected by the Fukushima accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Application of systems and control theory-based hazard analysis to radiation oncology.

PubMed

Pawlicki, Todd; Samost, Aubrey; Brown, Derek W; Manger, Ryan P; Kim, Gwe-Ya; Leveson, Nancy G

2016-03-01

Both humans and software are notoriously challenging to account for in traditional hazard analysis models. The purpose of this work is to investigate and demonstrate the application of a new, extended accident causality model, called systems theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP), to radiation oncology. Specifically, a hazard analysis technique based on STAMP, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA), is used to perform a hazard analysis. The STPA procedure starts with the definition of high-level accidents for radiation oncology at the medical center and the hazards leading to those accidents. From there, the hierarchical safety control structure of the radiation oncology clinic is modeled, i.e., the controls that are used to prevent accidents and provide effective treatment. Using STPA, unsafe control actions (behaviors) are identified that can lead to the hazards as well as causal scenarios that can lead to the identified unsafe control. This information can be used to eliminate or mitigate potential hazards. The STPA procedure is demonstrated on a new online adaptive cranial radiosurgery procedure that omits the CT simulation step and uses CBCT for localization, planning, and surface imaging system during treatment. The STPA procedure generated a comprehensive set of causal scenarios that are traced back to system hazards and accidents. Ten control loops were created for the new SRS procedure, which covered the areas of hospital and department management, treatment design and delivery, and vendor service. Eighty three unsafe control actions were identified as well as 472 causal scenarios that could lead to those unsafe control actions. STPA provides a method for understanding the role of management decisions and hospital operations on system safety and generating process design requirements to prevent hazards and accidents. The interaction of people, hardware, and software is highlighted. The method of STPA produces results that can be used to improve safety and prevent accidents and warrants further investigation.

Source, dispersion and combustion modelling of an accidental release of hydrogen in an urban environment.

PubMed

Venetsanos, A G; Huld, T; Adams, P; Bartzis, J G

2003-12-12

Hydrogen is likely to be the most important future energy carrier, for many stationary and mobile applications, with the potential to make significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions especially if renewable primary energy sources are used to produce the hydrogen. A safe transition to the use of hydrogen by members of the general public requires that the safety issues associated with hydrogen applications have to be investigated and fully understood. In order to assess the risks associated with hydrogen applications, its behaviour in realistic accident scenarios has to be predicted, allowing mitigating measures to be developed where necessary. A key factor in this process is predicting the release, dispersion and combustion of hydrogen in appropriate scenarios. This paper illustrates an application of CFD methods to the simulation of an actual hydrogen explosion. The explosion occurred on 3 March 1983 in a built up area of central Stockholm, Sweden, after the accidental release of approximately 13.5 kg of hydrogen from a rack of 18 interconnected 50 l industrial pressure vessels (200 bar working pressure) being transported by a delivery truck. Modelling of the source term, dispersion and combustion were undertaken separately using three different numerical tools, due to the differences in physics and scales between the different phenomena. Results from the dispersion calculations together with the official accident report were used to identify a possible ignition source and estimate the time at which ignition could have occurred. Ignition was estimated to occur 10s after the start of the release, coinciding with the time at which the maximum flammable hydrogen mass and cloud volume were found to occur (4.5 kg and 600 m(3), respectively). The subsequent simulation of the combustion adopts initial conditions for mean flow and turbulence from the dispersion simulations, and calculates the development of a fireball. This provides physical values, e.g. maximum overpressure and far-field overpressure that may be used as a comparison with the known accident details to give an indication of the validity of the models. The simulation results are consistent with both the reported near-field damage to buildings and persons and with the far-field damage to windows. The work was undertaken as part of the European Integrated Hydrogen Project-Phase 2 (EIHP2) with partial funding from the European Commission via the Fifth Framework Programme.

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics-Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland.

PubMed

Garus-Pakowska, Anna; Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-08-10

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005-2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics.

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics—Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland

PubMed Central

Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-01-01

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005–2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics. PMID:28796193

Genitourinary injuries after traffic accidents: Analysis of a registry of 162,690 victims.

PubMed

Terrier, Jean-Etienne; Paparel, Philippe; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Ruffion, Alain; Jenkins, Lawrence C; N'Diaye, Amina

2017-06-01

Traffic accidents are the most frequent cause of genitourinary injuries (GUI). Kidney injuries after trauma have been well described. However, there exists a paucity of data on other traumatic GUI after traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to analyze the frequency and type of all GUI, by user category, after traffic accidents. Patient cases were extracted from the trauma registry of the French department of Rhone from 1996 to 2013. We assessed the urogenital injuries presented by each of road user's categories. Severity injuries were coded with the Abbreviated Injury Scale and the Injury Severity Score. Kidney trauma was mapped with the classification of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma. Multivariate prediction models were used for analysis of data. Of 162,690 victims, 963 presented with GUI (0.59%). 47% were motorcyclists, 22% were in a car, 18% on bicycles, and 9% were pedestrians. The most common organ injury was kidney (41%) followed by testicular (23%). Among the 208 motorists with a GUI, kidney (70%), bladder (10%), and adrenal gland (9%) were the most frequent lesions. Among the 453 motorcyclist victims with GUI, kidney (35%) and testicular (38%) traumas were the most frequent and 62% of injuries involved external genitalia. There were 175 cyclists with GUI, 70% of injuries involved external genitalia; penile traumas (23%) were the most frequent. In total, there were 395 kidney injuries, most being low grade. According to the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma kidney injuries were grade I, 59%; grade II, 11%; grade III, 16%; grade IV, 9%; grade V, 3%; and indeterminate, 2%. GUI is an infrequent trauma after traffic accidents, with kidneys being the most commonly injured. Physicians must maintain a high awareness for external genitalia injuries in motorcyclists and cyclists. Prognostic and epidemiologic study, level III.

Credible investigation of air accidents.

PubMed

Smart, K

2004-07-26

Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate.

Fact book : a summary of information about towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-09-01

Standardized injury rates and seat belt effectiveness measures are derived from a probability sample of towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. The data were collected by NHTSA-sponsored teams in five different geographic regions. Weighted ...

Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2006-01-01

System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

2016-07-01

Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error." Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network.

PubMed

Mbakwe, Anthony C; Saka, Anthony A; Choi, Keechoo; Lee, Young-Jae

2016-08-01

Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

2017-01-01

A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

The influence of the infrastructure characteristics in urban road accidents occurrence.

PubMed

Vieira Gomes, Sandra

2013-11-01

This paper summarizes the result of a study regarding the creation of tools that can be used in intervention methods in the planning and management of urban road networks in Portugal. The first tool relates the creation of a geocoded database of road accidents occurred in Lisbon between 2004 and 2007, which allowed the definition of digital maps, with the possibility of a wide range of consultations and crossing of information. The second tool concerns the development of models to estimate the frequency of accidents on urban networks, according to different desegregations: road element (intersections and segments); type of accident (accidents with and without pedestrians); and inclusion of explanatory variables related to the road environment. Several methods were used to assess the goodness of fit of the developed models, allowing more robust conclusions. This work aims to contribute to the scientific knowledge of accidents phenomenon in Portugal, with detailed and accurate information on the factors affecting its occurrence. This allows to explicitly include safety aspects in planning and road management tasks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

PubMed

Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

2013-08-01

We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center's Urban Research and Development Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, J. K.; Sugiyama, G.; Nasstrom, J.

2007-12-01

This presentation describes the tools and services provided by the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for modeling the impacts of airborne hazardous materials. NARAC provides atmospheric plume modeling tools and services for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear airborne hazards. NARAC can simulate downwind effects from a variety of scenarios, including fires, industrial and transportation accidents, radiation dispersal device explosions, hazardous material spills, sprayers, nuclear power plant accidents, and nuclear detonations. NARAC collaborates on radiological dispersion source terms and effects models with Sandia National Laboratories and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NARAC was designated the interim provider of capabilities for the Department of Homeland Security's Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center by the Homeland Security Council in April 2004. The NARAC suite of software tools include simple stand-alone, local-scale plume modeling tools for end-user's computers, and Web- and Internet-based software to access advanced modeling tools and expert analyses from the national center at LLNL. Initial automated, 3-D predictions of plume exposure limits and protective action guidelines for emergency responders and managers are available from the center in 5-10 minutes. These can be followed immediately by quality-assured, refined analyses by 24 x 7 on-duty or on-call NARAC staff. NARAC continues to refine calculations using updated on-scene information, including measurements, until all airborne releases have stopped and the hazardous threats are mapped and impacts assessed. Model predictions include the 3-D spatial and time-varying effects of weather, land use, and terrain, on scales from the local to regional to global. Real-time meteorological data and forecasts are provided by redundant communications links to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Navy, and U.S. Air Force, as well as an in-house mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. NARAC provides an easy-to-use Geographical Information System (GIS) for display of plume predictions with affected population counts and detailed maps, and the ability to export plume predictions to other standard GIS capabilities. Data collection and product distribution is provided through a variety of communication methods, including dial-up, satellite, and wired and wireless networks. Ongoing research and development activities will be highlighted. The NARAC scientific support team is developing urban parameterizations for use in a regional dispersion model (see companion paper by Delle Monache). Modifications to the numerical weather prediction model WRF to account for characteristics of urban dynamics are also in progress, as is boundary-layer turbulence model development for simulations with resolutions greater than 1km. The NARAC building-resolving computational fluid dynamics capability, FEM3MP, enjoys ongoing development activities such as the expansion of its ability to model releases of dense gases. Other research activities include sensor-data fusion, such as the reconstruction of unknown source terms from sparse and disparate observations. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48. The Department of Homeland Security sponsored the production of this material under the Department of Energy contract for the management and operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. UCRL-PROC-234355

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

On the required complexity of vehicle dynamic models for use in simulation-based highway design.

PubMed

Brown, Alexander; Brennan, Sean

2014-06-01

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive project whose goal is to identify roadway design practices that maximize the margin of safety between the friction supply and friction demand. This study is motivated by the concern for increased accident rates on curves with steep downgrades, geometries that contain features that interact in all three dimensions - planar curves, grade, and superelevation. This complexity makes the prediction of vehicle skidding quite difficult, particularly for simple simulation models that have historically been used for road geometry design guidance. To obtain estimates of friction margin, this study considers a range of vehicle models, including: a point-mass model used by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design policy, a steady-state "bicycle model" formulation that considers only per-axle forces, a transient formulation of the bicycle model commonly used in vehicle stability control systems, and finally, a full multi-body simulation (CarSim and TruckSim) regularly used in the automotive industry for high-fidelity vehicle behavior prediction. The presence of skidding--the friction demand exceeding supply--was calculated for each model considering a wide range of vehicles and road situations. The results indicate that the most complicated vehicle models are generally unnecessary for predicting skidding events. However, there are specific maneuvers, namely braking events within lane changes and curves, which consistently predict the worst-case friction margins across all models. This suggests that any vehicle model used for roadway safety analysis should include the effects of combined cornering and braking. The point-mass model typically used by highway design professionals may not be appropriate to predict vehicle behavior on high-speed curves during braking in low-friction situations. However, engineers can use the results of this study to help select the appropriate vehicle dynamic model complexity to use in the highway design process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tourist visitation impacts of the accident at Three Mile Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Himmelberger, J.J.; Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y.A.; Baughman, M.L.

This paper analyzes tourist visitation impacts of the March 27, 1979 accident at Three Mile Island. A review of the literature, supplemented with recollections from Pennsylvanian public officials, are used to specify a conventional tourism impact model which holds that depressed 1979 summer tourism season was more influenced by gasoline shortages and possibly other confounding variables (such as rainy local weather conditions and a polio outbreak) than by the nuclear accident. Regression analysis using monthly visitation data for Hershey Chocolate World, Gettysburg National Park, The Pennsylvania Dutch Convention and Visitor Bureau, and several state parks as dependent variables provide supportmore » for this model. Potential tourism implications of an accident at Yucca Mountain are briefly discussed in light of our findings.« less

The Application Law of Large Numbers That Predicts The Amount of Actual Loss in Insurance of Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinungki, Georgina Maria

2018-03-01

The law of large numbers is a statistical concept that calculates the average number of events or risks in a sample or population to predict something. The larger the population is calculated, the more accurate predictions. In the field of insurance, the Law of Large Numbers is used to predict the risk of loss or claims of some participants so that the premium can be calculated appropriately. For example there is an average that of every 100 insurance participants, there is one participant who filed an accident claim, then the premium of 100 participants should be able to provide Sum Assured to at least 1 accident claim. The larger the insurance participant is calculated, the more precise the prediction of the calendar and the calculation of the premium. Life insurance, as a tool for risk spread, can only work if a life insurance company is able to bear the same risk in large numbers. Here apply what is called the law of large number. The law of large numbers states that if the amount of exposure to losses increases, then the predicted loss will be closer to the actual loss. The use of the law of large numbers allows the number of losses to be predicted better.

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

Development of an Accident Reproduction Simulator System Using a Hemodialysis Extracorporeal Circulation System.

PubMed

Nishite, Yoshiaki; Takesawa, Shingo

2016-01-01

Accidents that occur during dialysis treatment are notified to the medical staff via alarms raised by the dialysis apparatus. Similar to such real accidents, apparatus activation or accidents can be reproduced by simulating a treatment situation. An alarm that corresponds to such accidents can be utilized in the simulation model. The aim of this study was to create an extracorporeal circulation system (hereinafter, the circulation system) for dialysis machines so that it sets off five types of alarms for: 1) decreased arterial pressure, 2) increased arterial pressure, 3) decreased venous pressure, 4) increased venous pressure, and 5) blood leakage, according to the five types of accidents chosen based on their frequency of occurrence and the degree of severity. In order to verify the alarm from the dialysis apparatus connected to the circulation system and the accident corresponding to it, an evaluation of the alarm for its reproducibility of an accident was performed under normal treatment circumstances. The method involved testing whether the dialysis apparatus raised the desired alarm from the moment of control of the circulation system, and measuring the time it took until the desired alarm was activated. This was tested on five main models from four dialyzer manufacturers that are currently used in Japan. The results of the tests demonstrated successful activation of the alarms by the dialysis apparatus, which were appropriate for each of the five types of accidents. The time between the control of the circulatory system to the alarm signal was as follows, 1) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 7 seconds; 2) venous pressure lower limit: 8 seconds; 3) venous pressure upper limit: 7 seconds; 4) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 2 seconds; and 5) blood leakage alarm: 19 seconds. All alarms were set off in under 20 seconds. Thus, we can conclude that a simulator system using an extracorporeal circulation system can be set to different models of dialyzers, and that the reproduced treatment scenarios can be used for simulation training.

Investigating the effect of Alcohol Brief Interventions within accident and emergency departments using a data informatics methodology.

PubMed

Baldacchino, Alex; O'Rourke, Louise; Humphris, Gerry

2018-07-01

Alcohol Brief Interventions (ABI) have been implemented throughout Scotland since 2008 and aim to reduce hazardous drinking through a Scottish Government funded initiative delivered in a range of settings, including Accident and Emergency (A and E) departments. To study the extent to which Alcohol Brief Interventions (ABI) are associated with later health service use. An opportunistic informatics approach was applied. A unique patient identifier was used to link patient data with core datasets spanning two years previous and two years post ABI. Variables included inpatient attendance, outpatient attendance, psychiatric admissions, and A and E attendance and prescribing. Patients (N = 1704) who presented at A and E departments who reported an average alcohol consumption of more than 8 units daily received the ABI. Fast Alcohol Screening Test (FAST) was used to assess patients for hazardous alcohol consumption. Multilevel linear modelling was employed to predict post-intervention utilisation using pre-ABI variables and controlling for person characteristics and venue. Significant decrease in A and E usage was found at one and two years following the ABI intervention. Previous health service use was predictive of later service use. A single question (Item 4) on the FAST was predictive of A and E attendance at one and two years. This investigation and methodology used provide support for the delivery of the ABI. However, it cannot be ascertained whether this is due to the ABI or simply is a result of making contact with a specialist in the addiction field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montgomery, Robert, E-mail: robert.montgomery@pnnl.gov; Tomé, Carlos, E-mail: tome@lanl.gov; Liu, Wenfeng, E-mail: wenfeng.liu@anatech.com

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical constitutive models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. To improve upon this approach, a microstructurally-based zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability is being developed within the United States Department of Energy Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC)more » polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed by Lebensohn and Tomé [1], has been coupled with the BISON engineering scale fuel performance code to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of light water reactor (LWR) cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic nature (defect and dislocation movement) and orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. A future goal is for VPSC to obtain information on reaction rate kinetics from atomistic calculations to inform the defect and dislocation behavior models described in VPSC. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.« less

Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

2014-12-01

With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

Developmental assessment of the Fort St. Vrain version of the Composite HTGR Analysis Program (CHAP-2)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stroh, K.R.

1980-01-01

The Composite HTGR Analysis Program (CHAP) consists of a model-independent systems analysis mainframe named LASAN and model-dependent linked code modules, each representing a component, subsystem, or phenomenon of an HTGR plant. The Fort St. Vrain (FSV) version (CHAP-2) includes 21 coded modules that model the neutron kinetics and thermal response of the core; the thermal-hydraulics of the reactor primary coolant system, secondary steam supply system, and balance-of-plant; the actions of the control system and plant protection system; the response of the reactor building; and the relative hazard resulting from fuel particle failure. FSV steady-state and transient plant data are beingmore » used to partially verify the component modeling and dynamic smulation techniques used to predict plant response to postulated accident sequences.« less

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear powermore » station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable ofmore » propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Radionuclide Inventories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle

Radionuclide inventories are generated to permit detailed analyses of the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This is necessary information for severe accident calculations, dose calculations, and source term and consequence analyses. Inventories are calculated using SCALE6 and compared to values predicted by international researchers supporting the OECD/NEA's Benchmark Study on the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF). Both sets of inventory information are acceptable for best-estimate analyses of the Fukushima reactors. Consistent nuclear information for severe accident codes, including radionuclide class masses and core decay powers, are also derived from the SCALE6 analyses. Key nuclide activity ratios are calculated asmore » functions of burnup and nuclear data in order to explore the utility for nuclear forensics and support future decommissioning efforts.« less

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Mujalli, Randa Oqab; de Oña, Juan

2011-10-01

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN). It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators' values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN. It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model. The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of RANS and LES Turbulence Modeling for Buoyancy-Aided/Opposed Forced and Mixed Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifford, Corey; Kimber, Mark

2017-11-01

Over the last 30 years, an industry-wide shift within the nuclear community has led to increased utilization of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to supplement nuclear reactor safety analyses. One such area that is of particular interest to the nuclear community, specifically to those performing loss-of-flow accident (LOFA) analyses for next-generation very-high temperature reactors (VHTR), is the capacity of current computational models to predict heat transfer across a wide range of buoyancy conditions. In the present investigation, a critical evaluation of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and large-eddy simulation (LES) turbulence modeling techniques is conducted based on CFD validation data collected from the Rotatable Buoyancy Tunnel (RoBuT) at Utah State University. Four different experimental flow conditions are investigated: (1) buoyancy-aided forced convection; (2) buoyancy-opposed forced convection; (3) buoyancy-aided mixed convection; (4) buoyancy-opposed mixed convection. Overall, good agreement is found for both forced convection-dominated scenarios, but an overly-diffusive prediction of the normal Reynolds stress is observed for the RANS-based turbulence models. Low-Reynolds number RANS models perform adequately for mixed convection, while higher-order RANS approaches underestimate the influence of buoyancy on the production of turbulence.

Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

PubMed

Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

2013-04-01

The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing injury severity factors at highway railway grade crossing accidents involving vulnerable road users: A comparative study.

PubMed

Ghomi, Haniyeh; Bagheri, Morteza; Fu, Liping; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

2016-11-16

The main objective of this study is to identify the main factors associated with injury severity of vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved in accidents at highway railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) using data mining techniques. This article applies an ordered probit model, association rules, and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) HRGC accident database for the period 2007-2013 to identify VRU injury severity factors at HRGCs. The results show that train speed is a key factor influencing injury severity. Further analysis illustrated that the presence of illumination does not reduce the severity of accidents for high-speed trains. In addition, there is a greater propensity toward fatal accidents for elderly road users compared to younger individuals. Interestingly, at night, injury accidents involving female road users are more severe compared to those involving males. The ordered probit model was the primary technique, and CART and association rules act as the supporter and identifier of interactions between variables. All 3 algorithms' results consistently show that the most influential accident factors are train speed, VRU age, and gender. The findings of this research could be applied for identifying high-risk hotspots and developing cost-effective countermeasures targeting VRUs at HRGCs.

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Perpetrator or Victim? Effects of Who Suffers in an Automobile Accident on Judgemental Strictness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Jerry I.; McMartin, James A.

1975-01-01

After reading of an automobile accident in which the driver and/or bystanders either suffered or did not suffer, subjects rated the driver's responsibility for the accident and sentenced him to a jail term. The purpose of this experiment was to contrast three theoretical models: defensive attribution, moral salience, and equity. (Author)

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

2000-03-23

This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

How personal resources predict work engagement and self-rated performance among construction workers: a social cognitive perspective.

PubMed

Lorente, Laura; Salanova, Marisa; Martínez, Isabel M; Vera, María

2014-06-01

Traditionally, research focussing on psychosocial factors in the construction industry has focused mainly on the negative aspects of health and on results such as occupational accidents. This study, however, focuses on the specific relationships among the different positive psychosocial factors shared by construction workers that could be responsible for occupational well-being and outcomes such as performance. The main objective of this study was to test whether personal resources predict self-rated job performance through job resources and work engagement. Following the predictions of Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the motivational process of the Job Demands-Resources Model, we expect that the relationship between personal resources and performance will be fully mediated by job resources and work engagement. The sample consists of 228 construction workers. Structural equation modelling supports the research model. Personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy, mental and emotional competences) play a predicting role in the perception of job resources (i.e. job control and supervisor social support), which in turn leads to work engagement and self-rated performance. This study emphasises the crucial role that personal resources play in determining how people perceive job resources by determining the levels of work engagement and, hence, their self-rated job performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Inverse modelling for real-time estimation of radiological consequences in the early stage of an accidental radioactivity release.

PubMed

Pecha, Petr; Šmídl, Václav

2016-11-01

A stepwise sequential assimilation algorithm is proposed based on an optimisation approach for recursive parameter estimation and tracking of radioactive plume propagation in the early stage of a radiation accident. Predictions of the radiological situation in each time step of the plume propagation are driven by an existing short-term meteorological forecast and the assimilation procedure manipulates the model parameters to match the observations incoming concurrently from the terrain. Mathematically, the task is a typical ill-posed inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the release. The proposed method is designated as a stepwise re-estimation of the source term release dynamics and an improvement of several input model parameters. It results in a more precise determination of the adversely affected areas in the terrain. The nonlinear least-squares regression methodology is applied for estimation of the unknowns. The fast and adequately accurate segmented Gaussian plume model (SGPM) is used in the first stage of direct (forward) modelling. The subsequent inverse procedure infers (re-estimates) the values of important model parameters from the actual observations. Accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method for real-time forecasting of the accident propagation is studied. First, a twin experiment generating noiseless simulated "artificial" observations is studied to verify the minimisation algorithm. Second, the impact of the measurement noise on the re-estimated source release rate is examined. In addition, the presented method can be used as a proposal for more advanced statistical techniques using, e.g., importance sampling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Wotawa, G.

2012-11-01

Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0-13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1-24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0-13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3-7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and climate model predictions.

Analyzing a Mid-Air Collision Over the Hudson River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Sean; Holloway, C. Michael

2012-01-01

On August 8, 2009, a private airplane collided with a sightseeing helicopter over the Hudson River near Hoboken, New Jersey. All three people aboard the airplane, the pilot and two passengers, and all six people aboard the helicopter, the pilot and five passengers, were killed. The National Transportation Safety Board report on the accident identified inherent limitations of the see-and-avoid concept, inadequate regulations, and errors by the pilots and an air traffic controller as causing or contributing to the accident. This paper presents the results of analyzing the accident using the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach to determining accident causation.

A Report of the Joint Development of a Prototype Communications Link to Share Nuclear Accident Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modeling Products Between JAERI/WSPEEDI and LLNL/NARAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J; Belles, R D; Ellis, J S

2001-05-01

In June of 1997, under an umbrella Memorandum of Understanding between the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US/DOE) concerning matters of nuclear research and development, a Specific Memorandum of Agreement (SMA) entitled ''A Collaborative Programme of Development of a Prototype Communication Link to Share Atmospheric Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modelling Products'' was signed. This SMA formalized an informal collaborative exchange between the DOE's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) center and the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) Worldwide System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI). Themore » intended objective of this agreement was to explore various modes of information exchange, beyond facsimile transmission, which could provide for the quick exchange of information between two major nuclear emergency dose assessment and prediction national centers to provide consistency checks and data exchange before public release of their calculations. The extreme sensitivity of the general public to any nuclear accident information has been a strong motivation to seek peer preview prior to public release. Other intended objectives of this work are the development of an affordable/accessible system for distribution of prediction results to other countries having no prediction capabilities and utilization of the link for collaboration studies. To fulfill the objectives of this project JAERI and LLNL scientists determined to assess the evolving Internet and rapidly emerging communications application software. Our timing was a little early in 1997-1998 but nonetheless a few candidate software packages were found, evaluated and a selection was made for initial test and evaluation. Subsequently several new candidate software packages have arrived, albeit with limitations. This report outlines the ARAC and JAERI emergency response assessment systems, describes the prototype communications protocol system established and the tools evaluated in that process. Three real-time applications of the information exchange protocol and lessons learned are discussed and then some conclusions and future plans are presented.« less

An oilspill risk analysis for the Beaufort Sea, Alaska (proposed sale 71)outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.; Hopkins, Dorothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1981-01-01

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, (Proposed Sale 71) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The model predicted movement of the center of spill mass and estimated the times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources, to allow a qualitative assessment of oil characteristics at the time of contact; no direct computation was made of weathering and cleanup. The model also assumed that any oil spilled under ice would remain in place, unchanged, until spring breakup. Ice movements, or travel of oil under ice, if occurring, would affect the results in a manner not directly predictable at this time. The combined results of spill occurrence and spill movement predictions yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 99.3-percent chance) it is estimated that the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 71 will result in an expected 9.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) over the lease lifetime of 25 years. This estimate is based on historic oilspill accident data for platforms and pipelines on the U.S. OCS (Gulf of Mexico and California). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days (not counting any time trapped under ice) is greater than 99.5 percent. If oilspill accident data for Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, is used in the analysis, it is estimated that 5.6 oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger) will occur over the lease lifetime. The estimated probability that one or more oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger)will occur and contact land is99 percent. The results of a recent experimental cleanup operation for oilspills under ice in Canadian Arctic waters showed a substantial degree of success; this should be considered in evaluating impacts of spills predicted by this model. Oilspill occurrence probabilities are high primarily because of the large amount of oil believed to be present in the area.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

PubMed Central

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Making work safer: testing a model of social exchange and safety management.

PubMed

DeJoy, David M; Della, Lindsay J; Vandenberg, Robert J; Wilson, Mark G

2010-04-01

This study tests a conceptual model that focuses on social exchange in the context of safety management. The model hypothesizes that supportive safety policies and programs should impact both safety climate and organizational commitment. Further, perceived organizational support is predicted to partially mediate both of these relationships. Study outcomes included traditional outcomes for both organizational commitment (e.g., withdrawal behaviors) as well as safety climate (e.g., self-reported work accidents). Questionnaire responses were obtained from 1,723 employees of a large national retailer. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, all of the model's hypothesized relationships were statistically significant and in the expected directions. The results are discussed in terms of social exchange in organizations and research on safety climate. Maximizing safety is a social-technical enterprise. Expectations related to social exchange and reciprocity figure prominently in creating a positive climate for safety within the organization. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Road Risk Modeling and Cloud-Aided Safety-Based Route Planning.

PubMed

Li, Zhaojian; Kolmanovsky, Ilya; Atkins, Ella; Lu, Jianbo; Filev, Dimitar P; Michelini, John

2016-11-01

This paper presents a safety-based route planner that exploits vehicle-to-cloud-to-vehicle (V2C2V) connectivity. Time and road risk index (RRI) are considered as metrics to be balanced based on user preference. To evaluate road segment risk, a road and accident database from the highway safety information system is mined with a hybrid neural network model to predict RRI. Real-time factors such as time of day, day of the week, and weather are included as correction factors to the static RRI prediction. With real-time RRI and expected travel time, route planning is formulated as a multiobjective network flow problem and further reduced to a mixed-integer programming problem. A V2C2V implementation of our safety-based route planning approach is proposed to facilitate access to real-time information and computing resources. A real-world case study, route planning through the city of Columbus, Ohio, is presented. Several scenarios illustrate how the "best" route can be adjusted to favor time versus safety metrics.

Social support, posttraumatic cognitions, and PTSD: The influence of family, friends, and a close other in an interpersonal and non-interpersonal trauma group.

PubMed

Woodward, Matthew J; Eddinger, Jasmine; Henschel, Aisling V; Dodson, Thomas S; Tran, Han N; Beck, J Gayle

2015-10-01

Research has suggested that social support can shape posttraumatic cognitions and PTSD. However, research has yet to compare the influence of separate domains of support on posttraumatic cognitions. Multiple-group path analysis was used to examine a model in a sample of 170 victims of intimate partner violence and 208 motor vehicle accident victims in which support from friends, family, and a close other were each predicted to influence posttraumatic cognitions, which were in turn predicted to influence PTSD. Analyses revealed that support from family and friends were each negatively correlated with posttraumatic cognitions, which in turn were positively associated with PTSD. Social support from a close other was not associated with posttraumatic cognitions. No significant differences in the model were found between trauma groups. Findings identify which relationships are likely to influence posttraumatic cognitions and are discussed with regard to interpersonal processes in the development and maintenance of PTSD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing an ontological explosion knowledge base for business continuity planning purposes.

PubMed

Mohammadfam, Iraj; Kalatpour, Omid; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Khotanlou, Hasan

2013-01-01

Industrial accidents are among the most known challenges to business continuity. Many organisations have lost their reputation following devastating accidents. To manage the risks of such accidents, it is necessary to accumulate sufficient knowledge regarding their roots, causes and preventive techniques. The required knowledge might be obtained through various approaches, including databases. Unfortunately, many databases are hampered by (among other things) static data presentations, a lack of semantic features, and the inability to present accident knowledge as discrete domains. This paper proposes the use of Protégé software to develop a knowledge base for the domain of explosion accidents. Such a structure has a higher capability to improve information retrieval compared with common accident databases. To accomplish this goal, a knowledge management process model was followed. The ontological explosion knowledge base (EKB) was built for further applications, including process accident knowledge retrieval and risk management. The paper will show how the EKB has a semantic feature that enables users to overcome some of the search constraints of existing accident databases.

Computational modelling of traumatic brain injury predicts the location of chronic traumatic encephalopathy pathology

PubMed Central

Ghajari, Mazdak; Hellyer, Peter J; Sharp, David J

2017-01-01

Abstract Traumatic brain injury can lead to the neurodegenerative disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy. This condition has a clear neuropathological definition but the relationship between the initial head impact and the pattern of progressive brain pathology is poorly understood. We test the hypothesis that mechanical strain and strain rate are greatest in sulci, where neuropathology is prominently seen in chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and whether human neuroimaging observations converge with computational predictions. Three distinct types of injury were simulated. Chronic traumatic encephalopathy can occur after sporting injuries, so we studied a helmet-to-helmet impact in an American football game. In addition, we investigated an occipital head impact due to a fall from ground level and a helmeted head impact in a road traffic accident involving a motorcycle and a car. A high fidelity 3D computational model of brain injury biomechanics was developed and the contours of strain and strain rate at the grey matter–white matter boundary were mapped. Diffusion tensor imaging abnormalities in a cohort of 97 traumatic brain injury patients were also mapped at the grey matter–white matter boundary. Fifty-one healthy subjects served as controls. The computational models predicted large strain most prominent at the depths of sulci. The volume fraction of sulcal regions exceeding brain injury thresholds were significantly larger than that of gyral regions. Strain and strain rates were highest for the road traffic accident and sporting injury. Strain was greater in the sulci for all injury types, but strain rate was greater only in the road traffic and sporting injuries. Diffusion tensor imaging showed converging imaging abnormalities within sulcal regions with a significant decrease in fractional anisotropy in the patient group compared to controls within the sulci. Our results show that brain tissue deformation induced by head impact loading is greatest in sulcal locations, where pathology in cases of chronic traumatic encephalopathy is observed. In addition, the nature of initial head loading can have a significant influence on the magnitude and pattern of injury. Clarifying this relationship is key to understanding the long-term effects of head impacts and improving protective strategies, such as helmet design. PMID:28043957

Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, A. I.; Petrova, D. A.

2017-10-01

The article considers one of the topical problems of road safety management at the federal level - the problem of the heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in Russian cities. The article analyzes actual statistical data on road traffic accident rate in the administrative centers of Russia. The histograms of the distribution of the values of two most important road accidents characteristics - Social Risk HR and Severity Rate of Road Accidents - formed in 2016 in administrative centers of Russia are presented. On the basis of the regression model of the statistical connection between Severity Rate of Road Accidents and Social Risk HR, a classification of the Russian cities based on the level of actual road traffic accident rate was developed. On the basis of this classification a differentiated system of priority methods for organizing the safe functioning of transport systems in the cities of Russia is proposed.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

PubMed

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Learning from Trending, Precursor Analysis, and System Failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngblood, R. W.; Duffey, R. B.

2015-11-01

Models of reliability growth relate current system unreliability to currently accumulated experience. But “experience” comes in different forms. Looking back after a major accident, one is sometimes able to identify previous events or measurable performance trends that were, in some sense, signaling the potential for that major accident: potential that could have been recognized and acted upon, but was not recognized until the accident occurred. This could be a previously unrecognized cause of accidents, or underestimation of the likelihood that a recognized potential cause would actually operate. Despite improvements in the state of practice of modeling of risk and reliability,more » operational experience still has a great deal to teach us, and work has been going on in several industries to try to do a better job of learning from experience before major accidents occur. It is not enough to say that we should review operating experience; there is too much “experience” for such general advice to be considered practical. The paper discusses the following: 1. The challenge of deciding what to focus on in analysis of operating experience. 2. Comparing what different models of learning and reliability growth imply about trending and precursor analysis.« less

Heat up and failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.

In boiling water reactors, the shroud dome, separators, and dryers above the core are made of approximately 100,000 kg of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. In this scenario, the upper internals can also be heated by thermal radiation from the hot degrading core. Historically, models of the upper internals have been relatively simple in severe accident codes. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplifiedmore » heat transfer characteristics and no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. The MELCOR modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. Consistent with a previous study, the results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident sufficient to lose their structural integrity and relocate. Finally, the additional 100 metric tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Heat up and failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE PAGES

Robb, Kevin R.

2017-02-21

In boiling water reactors, the shroud dome, separators, and dryers above the core are made of approximately 100,000 kg of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. In this scenario, the upper internals can also be heated by thermal radiation from the hot degrading core. Historically, models of the upper internals have been relatively simple in severe accident codes. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplifiedmore » heat transfer characteristics and no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. The MELCOR modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. Consistent with a previous study, the results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident sufficient to lose their structural integrity and relocate. Finally, the additional 100 metric tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Simulation of three lanes one-way freeway in low visibility weather by possible traffic accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ming-bao; Zheng, Sha-sha; Cai, Zhang-hui

2015-09-01

The aim of this work is to investigate the traffic impact of low visibility weather on a freeway including the fraction of real vehicle rear-end accidents and road traffic capacity. Based on symmetric two-lane Nagel-Schreckenberg (STNS) model, a cellular automaton model of three-lane freeway mainline with the real occurrence of rear-end accidents in low visibility weather, which considers delayed reaction time and deceleration restriction, was established with access to real-time traffic information of intelligent transportation system (ITS). The characteristics of traffic flow in different visibility weather were discussed via the simulation experiments. The results indicate that incoming flow control (decreasing upstream traffic volume) and inputting variable speed limits (VSL) signal are effective in accident reducing and road actual traffic volume's enhancing. According to different visibility and traffic demand the appropriate control strategies should be adopted in order to not only decrease the probability of vehicle accidents but also avoid congestion.

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

PubMed

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2018-01-25

We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs

PubMed Central

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2017-01-01

Objectives: We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Methods: Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Results: Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. Conclusions: The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed. PMID:29093365

ATWS at Browns Ferry Unit One - accident sequence analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, R.M.; Hodge, S.A.

1984-07-01

This study describes the predicted response of Unit One at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated complete failure to scram following a transient occurrence that has caused closure of all Main Steam Isolation Valves (MSIVs). This hypothetical event constitutes the most severe example of the type of accident classified as Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS). Without the automatic control rod insertion provided by scram, the void coefficient of reactivity and the mechanisms by which voids are formed in the moderator/coolant play a dominant role in the progression of the accident. Actions taken by the operator greatly influence themore » quantity of voids in the coolant and the effect is analyzed in this report. The progression of the accident sequence under existing and under recommended procedures is discussed. For the extremely unlikely cases in which equipment failure and wrongful operator actions might lead to severe core damage, the sequence of emergency action levels and the associated timing of events are presented.« less

Building-Scale Atmospheric Modeling for Understanding and Anticipating Environmental Risks to Urban Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, T. T.; Swerdlin, S. P.; Chen, F.; Hayden, M.

2009-05-01

The innovative use of Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) models to define the building- and street-scale atmospheric environment in urban areas can benefit society in a number of ways. Design criteria used by architectural climatologists, who help plan the livable cities of the future, require information about air movement within street canyons for different seasons and weather regimes. Understanding indoor urban air- quality problems and their mitigation, especially for older buildings, requires data on air movement and associated dynamic pressures near buildings. Learning how heat waves and anthropogenic forcing in cities collectively affect the health of vulnerable residents is a problem in building thermodynamics, human behavior, and neighborhood-scale and street-canyon-scale atmospheric sciences. And, predicting the movement of plumes of hazardous material released in urban industrial or transportation accidents requires detailed information about vertical and horizontal air motions in the street canyons. These challenges are closer to being addressed because of advances in CFD modeling, the coupling of CFD models with models of indoor air motion and air quality, and the coupling of CFD models with mesoscale weather-prediction models. This paper will review some of the new knowledge and technologies that are being developed to meet these atmospheric-environment needs of our growing urban populations.

Frameworks for Assessing the Quality of Modeling and Simulation Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rider, W. J.

2012-12-01

The importance of assuring quality in modeling and simulation has spawned several frameworks for structuring the examination of quality. The format and content of these frameworks provides an emphasis, completeness and flow to assessment activities. I will examine four frameworks that have been developed and describe how they can be improved and applied to a broader set of high consequence applications. Perhaps the first of these frameworks was known as CSAU [Boyack] (code scaling, applicability and uncertainty) used for nuclear reactor safety and endorsed the United States' Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). This framework was shaped by nuclear safety practice, and the practical structure needed after the Three Mile Island accident. It incorporated the dominant experimental program, the dominant analysis approach, and concerns about the quality of modeling. The USNRC gave it the force of law that made the nuclear industry take it seriously. After the cessation of nuclear weapons' testing the United States began a program of examining the reliability of these weapons without testing. This program utilizes science including theory, modeling, simulation and experimentation to replace the underground testing. The emphasis on modeling and simulation necessitated attention on the quality of these simulations. Sandia developed the PCMM (predictive capability maturity model) to structure this attention [Oberkampf]. PCMM divides simulation into six core activities to be examined and graded relative to the needs of the modeling activity. NASA [NASA] has built yet another framework in response to the tragedy of the space shuttle accidents. Finally, Ben-Haim and Hemez focus upon modeling robustness and predictive fidelity in another approach. These frameworks are similar, and applied in a similar fashion. The adoption of these frameworks at Sandia and NASA has been slow and arduous because the force of law has not assisted acceptance. All existing frameworks are incomplete and need to be extended incorporating elements from the other as well as new elements related to how models are solved, and how the model will be applied. I will describe this merger of approach and how it should be applied. The problems in adoption are related to basic human nature in that no one likes to be graded, or told they are not sufficiently quality oriented. Rather than engage in an adversarial role, I suggest that the frameworks be viewed as a collaborative tool. Instead these frameworks should be used to structure collaborations that can be used to assist the modeling and simulation efforts to be high quality. The framework provides a comprehensive setting of modeling and simulation themes that should be explored in providing high quality. W. Oberkampf, M. Pilch, and T. Trucano, Predictive Capability Maturity Model for Computational Modeling and Simulation, SAND2007-5948, 2007. B. Boyack, Quantifying Reactor Safety Margins Part 1: An Overview of the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation Methodology, Nuc. Eng. Design, 119, pp. 1-15, 1990. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, STANDARD FOR MODELS AND SIMULATIONS, NASA-STD-7009, 2008. Y. Ben-Haim and F. Hemez, Robustness, fidelity and prediction-looseness of models, Proc. R. Soc. A (2012) 468, 227-244.

A Progressive Damage Methodology for Residual Strength Predictions of Center-Crack Tension Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Timothy William

1996-01-01

An investigation of translaminate fracture and a progressive damage methodology was conducted to evaluate and develop a residual strength prediction capability for laminated composites with through penetration notches. This is relevant to the damage tolerance of an aircraft fuselage that might suffer an in-flight accident such as an uncontained engine failure. An experimental characterization of several composite materials systems revealed an R-curve type of behavior. Fractographic examinations led to the postulate that this crack growth resistance could be due to fiber bridging, defined here as fractured fibers of one ply bridged by intact fibers of an adjacent ply. The progressive damage methodology is currently capable of predicting the initiation and growth of matrix cracks and fiber fracture. Using two difference fiber failure criteria, residual strength was predicted for different size panel widths and notch lengths. A ply discount fiber failure criterion yielded extremely conservative results while an elastic-perfectly plastic fiber failure criterion showed that the fiber bridging concept is valid for predicting residual strength for tensile dominated failure loads. Furthermore, the R-curves predicted by the model using the elastic-perfectly plastic fiber criterion compared very well with the experimental R-curves.

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Investigating the predictive of risk-taking attitudes and behaviors among Iranian drivers

PubMed Central

Habibi, Ehsanollah; Haghi, Azam; Maracy, Mohammad Reza

2014-01-01

Background: World Health Organization findings shows that up to year 2020 the number of fatality due to driving accidents will increases up to 65%, which is 80% is in developing countries. Iran has one of the highest rates of road traffic accident mortality rate in the world. Materials and Methods: The cross-sectional study was carried out in the center and west of Iran upon 540 ordinary and taxi drivers who were driving regularly from bus terminals and the travel agencies to other cities. Data collection tool is a questionnaire that measuring driving risk taking by two items of risky driving behaviors and risk taking attitudes. Findings: The results of this study showed that the averages of risk driving behaviors scores were higher than the average of risk taking attitudes scores. The results of logistic regression test showed that the risky driving behaviors can be a predictor of driving accidents due to individuals’ risk taking (P = 0.014). Among all these variables, attitude toward rule violations and speeding, aggressive driving and violation of the road laws respectively are important predictive of drivers’ risk taking (P < 0.0010). Discussion and Conclusion: Although attitude toward risk taking has been located at a low level by different ways, a desired result was not obtained from the reduction of those high risky behaviors; in fact, high-rate of accidents and traffic incidence in Iran indicates this matter well. PMID:24741659

Case-control study on the prevention of occupational eye injuries.

PubMed

Ho, Chi-Kung; Yen, Ya-Lin; Chang, Cheng-Hsien; Chiang, Hung-Che; Shen, Ying-Ying; Chang, Po-Ya

2008-01-01

The risk factors for occupational eye injuries have never been published in Taiwan. We conducted a case-control study to analyze the differences among workers on their knowledge, attitude to and practice (KAP) of occupational accident prevention. In the study, a statistical model was also set up for predicting the occupational problem. Subjects, including 31 cases of work-related eye injuries and 62 controls, completed a structured questionnaire on KAP, which revealed that 80.6% and 62.7% of workers in the case and control groups, respectively, did not wear eye protection during work. Furthermore, we found that temporary employment (OR, 10.7; 95% CI, 3.03-36.16) and fewer than 10 years of education (OR, 4.44; 95% CI, 1.73-11.44) were the major risk factors for occupational eye injuries. In addition, we developed a logistic regression model with four predictors (temporary employment, education years less than 10, poor management of industrial health and safety in the workplace, and poor attitude towards accident prevention) for the occurrence of occupational eye injuries. In conclusion, in Taiwan, compulsory regulation of wearing eye protection during work, good education, management of work safety and hygiene and employee (especially temporary worker) commitment to safety and health are strongly recommended prevention strategies.